Just to be clear: they did provide predictions which were largely accurate but refused to quantify the unquantifiable: the final steering forces just coming into play this afternoon (Saturday 9th September). Just as with global warming, they will not lie for effect; better to say what they know and leave the rest for further work and understanding.
2
I live in the Virgin Islands, so was been busy in the last week tracking Irma.
Some advice: First do search "NOAA hurricane Irma public advisory".
Then search "NOAA hurricane Irma graphics"
I don't select "mobile" option, as it limits the interactive model for the cone.
First determine hurricane winds expected arrival time for your area, then select from small numbers under graphic: 12 24 36 48 hours etc. The NHC /NOAA predictions were extremely accurate all week. Check at 5am, 11 am, 5pm, 11pm as hurricane Hunter planes & modeling info is updated then.
Importantly, remember to charge phones in car or use computer or other means. Texts often works while calls are often dropped.
Most of all: Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Don't full around. This island had Hugo eye in '89 equivalent to Irma... Cat 5 185 mph gusts to 220. You can't imagine.
May good fortune & blessings be yours!
Some advice: First do search "NOAA hurricane Irma public advisory".
Then search "NOAA hurricane Irma graphics"
I don't select "mobile" option, as it limits the interactive model for the cone.
First determine hurricane winds expected arrival time for your area, then select from small numbers under graphic: 12 24 36 48 hours etc. The NHC /NOAA predictions were extremely accurate all week. Check at 5am, 11 am, 5pm, 11pm as hurricane Hunter planes & modeling info is updated then.
Importantly, remember to charge phones in car or use computer or other means. Texts often works while calls are often dropped.
Most of all: Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Don't full around. This island had Hugo eye in '89 equivalent to Irma... Cat 5 185 mph gusts to 220. You can't imagine.
May good fortune & blessings be yours!
3
This feels like the pregame.
Two hurricanes in one satellite photo looks like a 'hanging chad' to me, but Floridan may not see it .. they are busy driving up I-75 In an ant column.
1
If I were a devout Christian, I would look at the states which have been hammered and those that look like they are going to be hammered soon. And I'm afraid I'd have to say that The Good Lord seems to have had enough of the holier-than-anyone-else Red States.
Why, I'd have to come to the conclusion that He's trying to knock something akin to good sense into the bible thumpers whose booming voices have led thousands astray, and thousands more to disdain ordinary folk of color and of differing faiths and philosophies.
Why, He seems to have singled them and their arrogance out in hopes that they'll see the miracle that was Houston, where deaths were astoundingly low.
Now THAT's a miracle.
Whom have you reached out, white America? What have you done with the goodness and largess he has bequeathed over so many years? Still grabbing for more money? Still hungry for more when so many more are struggling?
Time to awaken, brother and sister. Stop judging others. That's The Lord's provenance, not yours.
Love your fellow man. Judge him not.
Rather, shelter him and his and hers in your own homes. Provide their children with the finest educations you can.
Accept the variety of perspectives on religion and tolerance and love your fellow man.
Amen.
Why, I'd have to come to the conclusion that He's trying to knock something akin to good sense into the bible thumpers whose booming voices have led thousands astray, and thousands more to disdain ordinary folk of color and of differing faiths and philosophies.
Why, He seems to have singled them and their arrogance out in hopes that they'll see the miracle that was Houston, where deaths were astoundingly low.
Now THAT's a miracle.
Whom have you reached out, white America? What have you done with the goodness and largess he has bequeathed over so many years? Still grabbing for more money? Still hungry for more when so many more are struggling?
Time to awaken, brother and sister. Stop judging others. That's The Lord's provenance, not yours.
Love your fellow man. Judge him not.
Rather, shelter him and his and hers in your own homes. Provide their children with the finest educations you can.
Accept the variety of perspectives on religion and tolerance and love your fellow man.
Amen.
7
Actually, if you were a devout Christian hopefully you would be familiar enough with your Bible to know that God specifically said he causes the sun to shine and the rain to fall on both the righteous and the unrighteous.
I don't quarrel with the need for white America to do this and that, but let's not get into victim blaming with these catastrophic weather events.
I don't quarrel with the need for white America to do this and that, but let's not get into victim blaming with these catastrophic weather events.
3
Love your fellow man? Judge him not? Did you not just judge? And I doubt the Good Lord needs or wants you to speak for him.
1
Interesting analysis but Houston area I believe is one of the more liberal parts of Texas.
1
The forecasts for Harvey were right on the button, which demonstrates, I believe, the growing capability of computer-aided meteolorgy. Hats off to the professionals who are doing a tremedous job, especially when you think of the consequences of an erroneous prediction.
3
Translation: Don't get your hurricane news from social media. My personal corollary: Don't get any of your news from social media.
6
As a fellow science writer (I directed and wrote award-winning science docs for PBS), I really enjoyed this masterful story. Lots of detailed info with helpful caveats. I spent some time with the NOAA hurricane modelers, who were then located in Princeton, so I have a decent grasp of the science and you covered it well without picking "sides" too much between the models. Well done!
8
This is an American paper writing for an American audience. Please focus on American weather science (not some European models) and remember that no storm of any size can take deminish our greatness. As our president has led through Harvey, same with Irma. We are going to have a great time.
Wink, wink--with tongue in eye of hurricane...
4
No facts can further diminish Trump's and his fans' microphallic rhetoric since it can't POSSIBLY go any lower, having already crashed through the floor boards and dug a tunnel that traps every rational thought and then crushes it. You can't even develop a law of gravity in that hole.
5
i believe the wind probabilities table on NHC distills all the models and the track cone down to numbers that tell the wind risks for a location. The storm can be within the cone but the wind velocities are quite different on different sides off the storm and further from the eye. The wind probabilities appear to consider those factors, not shown by the cone.
Once again the NYT displays its blatant liberal bias. After all, facts have a liberal bias. Why are you giving us facts? Where can we go to find out how all the pics are a Chinese hoax, that the meteorologists are in it for the grant money, that CO2 is a natural atmospheric gas good for plants. Shouldn't the "newspaper of record" also tell us the other side's story?
That said, thank you. Very informative.
That said, thank you. Very informative.
Like Irma, I hope you will go away.
3
If the loop videos show it rotating clockwise in the Carribean, its a hoax ;-)
1
Florida Republicans, repeat after me: "Global Warming is a Hoax. NY Times is Fake News. There is nothing headed your way!"
7
John , are you a member or a US citizen ?
I am a native American born in Seattle, but labelled "Switzerland" because I was at CERN when I sent by first comment to the NYT.
NOAA isn't the only agency with satellite data
NASA - https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/irma-atlantic-ocean
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=90912
Data.gov -
https://www.data.gov/disasters/hurricanes/
NASA - https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/irma-atlantic-ocean
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=90912
Data.gov -
https://www.data.gov/disasters/hurricanes/
So is there such a thing as global warming yet? As soon as we can all agree on that, I'm willing to help out with fixing it! Might be a little late, but what the hay.
Florida? Texas? Is climate change real for you yet? Or is it still just a figment of my California dreaming? Let us know when you get a clue, we'll totally be here for you. If we could agree on this, then maybe we could really do something about it together, rather than just trying to soak up the floodwaters with borrowed dollar bills.
Florida? Texas? Is climate change real for you yet? Or is it still just a figment of my California dreaming? Let us know when you get a clue, we'll totally be here for you. If we could agree on this, then maybe we could really do something about it together, rather than just trying to soak up the floodwaters with borrowed dollar bills.
4
Here's the million dollar question:
What do we solve by arguing about the causes of climate change? Man made, natural , or " God's will" ?
To the deaf dumb and blind of the world: it's here: read the history and watch it live NOW.
Then, let's tackle the problem together : and yes , it will inconvenience some of the people some of the time. Yes, some countries may appear not to be doing their share ...
But : what does that matter when your hard earned tax dollars go into rebuilding the same place over and over again so that the suffering of those victims we see over and over again? If those suffering are YOU?
When will we stop blaming and start doing?
What do we solve by arguing about the causes of climate change? Man made, natural , or " God's will" ?
To the deaf dumb and blind of the world: it's here: read the history and watch it live NOW.
Then, let's tackle the problem together : and yes , it will inconvenience some of the people some of the time. Yes, some countries may appear not to be doing their share ...
But : what does that matter when your hard earned tax dollars go into rebuilding the same place over and over again so that the suffering of those victims we see over and over again? If those suffering are YOU?
When will we stop blaming and start doing?
2
Nate,
I wish to repeat what previous commenters have said. Great article and links that will keep me busy reading long after IRMA leaves us. I wish to add one issue, demographics. I arrived in Sarasota on Labor Day 1976 when the Florida population was under 10 million. Now we are over 21 million souls. If IRMA arrives as a thief in the night she will surely attack with a vengeance such a concentrated population has never seen, a predator with no opposition. May we all be prepared and safe.
I wish to repeat what previous commenters have said. Great article and links that will keep me busy reading long after IRMA leaves us. I wish to add one issue, demographics. I arrived in Sarasota on Labor Day 1976 when the Florida population was under 10 million. Now we are over 21 million souls. If IRMA arrives as a thief in the night she will surely attack with a vengeance such a concentrated population has never seen, a predator with no opposition. May we all be prepared and safe.
1
Thanks! This is superb science writing.
Let's more frequently see excellent science writing in NYT. The American public needs to be better informed on these topics.
Let's more frequently see excellent science writing in NYT. The American public needs to be better informed on these topics.
5
Thanks for the wrap-up of sites with hurricane info! Very handy and informative.
1
Very good explanation on how models are used for prediction and where the uncertainty comes from.
... an oceanographer who does modeling.
... an oceanographer who does modeling.
2
Right now everyone is running around doing last minute chores & stocking up for an expected week without power. Many of the South Florida residents are driving up state and the highways are clogged. No one is getting anywhere fast. It's been about 12 years since most of us have seen a hurricane and 25 years since Andrew hit south Florida. This is a monster storm that has everyone on edge. We just saw what happened in Houston. Let's prepare & hope for the best.
6
Harvey and Irma are the intro to Climate Change 101. For those who thought human warming was a made up story, this is how expensive, not acting on our environment is going to be. Are you listening POTUS??
10
Trump won't listen until his Mar-a-Logo estate in Palm Beach is wiped out by Irma--which is in a few forecasted paths of this hurricane.
All I want to know is the probability of Irma hitting Mar a Lago.
Purely a hoax, of course.
Purely a hoax, of course.
6
Any coverage of such a hit would be considered fake news, generated by the enemy of the American people.
Don't forget radar imagery.
As of Wed evening, Irma was very visible on the loop from the San Juan radar: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jua&product=NCR&overlay=...
with the long-range view of the same radar here:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes
Once Irma gets close to Florida, you can look at one of the local NWS radars there: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/index.htm
or at the Southeast US mosaic:
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php
There are also several radars in Cuba, run by their meteorological agency:
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES
As of Wed evening, Irma was very visible on the loop from the San Juan radar: https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jua&product=NCR&overlay=...
with the long-range view of the same radar here:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes
Once Irma gets close to Florida, you can look at one of the local NWS radars there: https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/index.htm
or at the Southeast US mosaic:
https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php
There are also several radars in Cuba, run by their meteorological agency:
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES
2
Thank you for this thorough explanation.
5
Helpful and interesting, especially the Euro vs. US models. The courage of the pilots on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is amazing. Science matters.
9
Nate very fine presentation on all counts. Will be studying it carefully. It has been fascinating for me to go back to my out-of-print 1996 Environmental Geology to see what I wrote then about the subject before us and compare that with where we now are.
I have been making screen-dumps of the cone maps and especially the most recent that shows that maybe, just maybe, the eye might pass over Trump's Mar-a-Largo. If it does I hope a Times reporter is close by and that all the surveillance cameras will be running.
As one who was a child in Rhode Island during the 1938 hurricane, can't wish that on anyone but the path is beyond Donald's control so he may just have to live and learn. Wonder what the first tweet will say.
Could not resist, but back to the science - thanks.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
I have been making screen-dumps of the cone maps and especially the most recent that shows that maybe, just maybe, the eye might pass over Trump's Mar-a-Largo. If it does I hope a Times reporter is close by and that all the surveillance cameras will be running.
As one who was a child in Rhode Island during the 1938 hurricane, can't wish that on anyone but the path is beyond Donald's control so he may just have to live and learn. Wonder what the first tweet will say.
Could not resist, but back to the science - thanks.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
5
Perhaps Trumps first tweet after Irma:
"Don't worry. My entire staff of immigrant custodians are bailing the water out of Mar-a-Logo. We will be open for business tomorrow."
"Don't worry. My entire staff of immigrant custodians are bailing the water out of Mar-a-Logo. We will be open for business tomorrow."
1
Thank you Nate for a very informative article! You've just expanded my set of resources for following hurricane predictions, and deepened my understanding of the current state of those predictions.
In the mid-70's, working for the Austin-based company Tracor, I wrote the first software system for NOAA for tracking dropsondes in real time. Our system was mounted in a 19" rack in the P3 the hunters used to fly into the eye. We used the Omega navigation system (pre-GPS) for position information (and the basis for computing wind speeds). I developed algorithms to give reliable 10 second snapshots of sonde-observed windspeeds, using a computer (Data General Nova 3) that was slower than your current alarm clock. I was offered the opportunity to fly with my system and declined, a decision I have regretted on occasion since. I marvel at the fact that sondes are still used given the quality of satellite data these days.
In the mid-70's, working for the Austin-based company Tracor, I wrote the first software system for NOAA for tracking dropsondes in real time. Our system was mounted in a 19" rack in the P3 the hunters used to fly into the eye. We used the Omega navigation system (pre-GPS) for position information (and the basis for computing wind speeds). I developed algorithms to give reliable 10 second snapshots of sonde-observed windspeeds, using a computer (Data General Nova 3) that was slower than your current alarm clock. I was offered the opportunity to fly with my system and declined, a decision I have regretted on occasion since. I marvel at the fact that sondes are still used given the quality of satellite data these days.
9
@ Paul - Thanks Paul, I always wish more professionals had the time and inclination to read NYT articles and then file comments. Your story is a nice addition to Nate's report.
What is troubling is that this fine article does not seem to be drawing the attention it deserves.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
What is troubling is that this fine article does not seem to be drawing the attention it deserves.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
5
Two additional thoughts.
We are many European residents/dual citizens who comment regularly on areas in which in our view Europe is way ahead of our very own USA. But I have to admit it was quite a surprise to read "The European model has been the premier global forecasting model for a while now." Makes me wonder if Trump has his hands on NHC in some way similar to what he has done to EPA. If his Mar-a-Largo gets hit how will this affect his views on the importance of the science NHC and others are doing.
As one who does not live in the Twitter world, it is quite a surprise to read that it is not only DT who is out there but serious meteorologists like those you list.
Here is the Times at its best.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
We are many European residents/dual citizens who comment regularly on areas in which in our view Europe is way ahead of our very own USA. But I have to admit it was quite a surprise to read "The European model has been the premier global forecasting model for a while now." Makes me wonder if Trump has his hands on NHC in some way similar to what he has done to EPA. If his Mar-a-Largo gets hit how will this affect his views on the importance of the science NHC and others are doing.
As one who does not live in the Twitter world, it is quite a surprise to read that it is not only DT who is out there but serious meteorologists like those you list.
Here is the Times at its best.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
19
The differential between the US and European weather modeling system pre-dates Trump by years. The US system suffers from its dependence on the whims of Congress for a chunk of its funding. NOAA finally gets a couple of new computers online in October.
On the other hand, the US system info is publicly available, while the Euro model results are available for a fee.
Lots of stuff I'd lay at the feet of Trump, but not this shortfall.
On the other hand, the US system info is publicly available, while the Euro model results are available for a fee.
Lots of stuff I'd lay at the feet of Trump, but not this shortfall.
14
Can we please not politicize everything, including hurricane forecasting and tracking? I don't know about you, but I need a break every once in a while! More importantly, I really liked the article because it focused on the science and the pros and cons of different options, and (quite appropriately) didn't go anywhere near politics.
9
@ Jay NH - Jay, I first recommended your reply. Will explain briefly about what you call politicizing but what I call the importance of public policy based on science.
I submitted a first comment praising Nate for the science. Unfortunately, Times review all too often sets that first one aside and accepts the second, which is written as a follow up.
So I agree with you completely as far as you go. But I used to teach Geology and Public Policy at the U of Rochester and also taught Environmental Risk in Department of Environmental Medicine. The science dealing with risks - is without exception linked to decisions about public policy.
Thanks to the National Hurricane Center and governmental support ("politics") the US has made dramatic reductions in mortality associated with hurricanes but it has not done as well as concerns all other types of loss. Reduced mortality results by combining NHC forecasting and presentation of results with development of political will and action to guide evacuation and planning before the storm arises.
We are seeing that in Florida right now. If we had a rational president then there would be no need to write what I wrote in my 2d submission. But we have a science denier. Will he learn anything from what may happen in Florida starting on Sunday that might get him to realize that science and policy must be linked? I do not think so.
Thanks for raising the question.
Larry L.
I submitted a first comment praising Nate for the science. Unfortunately, Times review all too often sets that first one aside and accepts the second, which is written as a follow up.
So I agree with you completely as far as you go. But I used to teach Geology and Public Policy at the U of Rochester and also taught Environmental Risk in Department of Environmental Medicine. The science dealing with risks - is without exception linked to decisions about public policy.
Thanks to the National Hurricane Center and governmental support ("politics") the US has made dramatic reductions in mortality associated with hurricanes but it has not done as well as concerns all other types of loss. Reduced mortality results by combining NHC forecasting and presentation of results with development of political will and action to guide evacuation and planning before the storm arises.
We are seeing that in Florida right now. If we had a rational president then there would be no need to write what I wrote in my 2d submission. But we have a science denier. Will he learn anything from what may happen in Florida starting on Sunday that might get him to realize that science and policy must be linked? I do not think so.
Thanks for raising the question.
Larry L.
15
This is a great piece of writing with great information for all of us science people who look at this with that view. One question would be an explanation of the image from the European model. It's hard to figure out how to use the image, how to pull it back for an idea of what it's representing. Thank you for the links, you just made this process much better!
28
In addition, as the outer bands started to hit Miami last night, I realized how true it is that people outside the main thrust of the storm will receive storm surge, high winds, lots of rain (squalls), and possibly tornadoes. The storm surge on the northeast side will be huge, and for lowland Florida, Georgia, and even South Carolina that is not joke.
For length and accurate updates, I recommend Wunderground, which also says what this article says: the NWS and NHC (that would be government, all you gubmint haters, this is not a bathtub and they're not the ones drowning).
And anyone who gets advice about reality from Limbaugh should remember his horrible hypocrisy (he evacuated while telling everyone it's a scam to sell bottled water and plywood) this time. He's laughing all the way to the bank telling you scary lies about conspiracies.
Good luck all.