I never believe the unemployment numbers when they are so low. What about the millions of people working very part time in the gig economy? These gig economy workers do not collect unemployment benefits and so they are not counted in the unemployment numbers. Because they are not counted there are millions of people unemployed in any given week than is reported. There will have to be safety nets in place for people working in the gig economy as that sector of working status is growing fast.
2
The unemployment numbers have nothing to do with collecting benefits. The numbers are generated by a survey that interviews 60,000 selected households each month. One person within the household provides information about each resident of the household who is a civilian and 15 years of age or older (only the data for those 16 and over is used). The information is for the most part about the week containing the 12th day of the month. Even if someone only worked for one hour during that week in the gig economy and even if they made no money they are still counted as employed. If they did not work at all, but looked for work during the four weeks ending with the survey week they are counted as unemployed. For example, a driver who quit Uber before the survey week and is looking into driving for Lyft would be counted as unemployed.
Where the gig economy distorts the statistics is in the payroll employment numbers. If you are not on a payroll you are not counted in non-farm payroll employment numbers.. Get laid off from a payroll job and start doing gig work and you are still employed but quite likely no longer on a payroll.
Where the gig economy distorts the statistics is in the payroll employment numbers. If you are not on a payroll you are not counted in non-farm payroll employment numbers.. Get laid off from a payroll job and start doing gig work and you are still employed but quite likely no longer on a payroll.
Look how clueless democrats are about the economy. Partisan rants are the most popular comments on here.
"Yeah it's fault of one party. My party had nothing to do with anything negative."
Democrats complain rich are getting richer, and they are. Yet democrats do everything to keep themselves under the rule of corporatocracy.
Democrats place all faith in government like a religion while corporations control government.
You Democrats certainly do worship your corporate masters. All the while thinking you are worshipping your Lord and saviour "Government".
"Yeah it's fault of one party. My party had nothing to do with anything negative."
Democrats complain rich are getting richer, and they are. Yet democrats do everything to keep themselves under the rule of corporatocracy.
Democrats place all faith in government like a religion while corporations control government.
You Democrats certainly do worship your corporate masters. All the while thinking you are worshipping your Lord and saviour "Government".
"...Also troubling is the decline in overall participation in the labor force, which has trudged along below 63 percent during the recovery, compared with more than 66 percent before the recession...
...“We’re not worried about slowing job growth,” Gary D. Cohn, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, told CNBC. He pointed out that the Labor Department’s broadest measure of unemployment, which includes part-time workers who would rather have full-time jobs and those too discouraged to search, dropped to 8.4 percent, its lowest level since 2007..."
-- Where was this kind of FACTUAL reporting over the last 8-years?
___
"...Moreover, he added, those who have been out of the job market for a while or lack up-to-date skills may have less bargaining power when they re-enter. Low wages and fluctuating schedules have also sown anxiety among many Americans..."
...[Guerra] said that while large corporations were willing to train workers, smaller firms were more wary. “Less and less people are willing to train,” Mr. Guerrera said. Younger people tended to change jobs more frequently in the past, he said, so companies do not want to make the investment only to see their new hires leave in a couple of years..."
-- Are you worth your salt? Am I only training you/giving you the skillset to go to work for a competitor?
...“We’re not worried about slowing job growth,” Gary D. Cohn, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, told CNBC. He pointed out that the Labor Department’s broadest measure of unemployment, which includes part-time workers who would rather have full-time jobs and those too discouraged to search, dropped to 8.4 percent, its lowest level since 2007..."
-- Where was this kind of FACTUAL reporting over the last 8-years?
___
"...Moreover, he added, those who have been out of the job market for a while or lack up-to-date skills may have less bargaining power when they re-enter. Low wages and fluctuating schedules have also sown anxiety among many Americans..."
...[Guerra] said that while large corporations were willing to train workers, smaller firms were more wary. “Less and less people are willing to train,” Mr. Guerrera said. Younger people tended to change jobs more frequently in the past, he said, so companies do not want to make the investment only to see their new hires leave in a couple of years..."
-- Are you worth your salt? Am I only training you/giving you the skillset to go to work for a competitor?
Without higher pay for those to do the work it will continue to stay at an almost standstill.
All this goes back in time to when the DLC thought it could move to the right to get things going. What has it given the Democrats but nothing but grief? Raising interest rates will just continue to keep the economy stagnant.
All this goes back in time to when the DLC thought it could move to the right to get things going. What has it given the Democrats but nothing but grief? Raising interest rates will just continue to keep the economy stagnant.
…Skeptics argue that if the labor market were truly stretched, wages would be rising faster. Instead, year-over-year wage growth has declined since the end of last year to 2.5 percent, just a nose in front of inflation…
__
Wage growth should be rising faster? On Friday, May 26th, there was an article in the ‘Upshot’ Business section:
“The Question Isn’t Why Wage Growth Is So Low. It’s Why It’s So High.”
“…For some reason, the booming job market and ultralow unemployment rate, which fell to 4.4 percent in April, haven’t led employers to raise pay in a meaningful way. That flies in the face of a basic assumption of how the economy works: A tight labor market is expected to lead to pay increases that in turn fuel broader inflation…
…Over the last 24 months through March, inflation has come in at 1.4 percent a year, and productivity growth at 0.6 percent. Those are very low numbers…
…In fact, the average hourly earnings for nonmanagerial private sector workers rose 2.4 percent a year in that period. You may not feel like cheering about that, but it’s more than we might have expected, with inflation and productivity so weak. The real mystery, then, isn’t why wages are rising so slowly, but why they’re rising so fast…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/upshot/the-question-isnt-why-wage-gro...
__
Wage growth should be rising faster? On Friday, May 26th, there was an article in the ‘Upshot’ Business section:
“The Question Isn’t Why Wage Growth Is So Low. It’s Why It’s So High.”
“…For some reason, the booming job market and ultralow unemployment rate, which fell to 4.4 percent in April, haven’t led employers to raise pay in a meaningful way. That flies in the face of a basic assumption of how the economy works: A tight labor market is expected to lead to pay increases that in turn fuel broader inflation…
…Over the last 24 months through March, inflation has come in at 1.4 percent a year, and productivity growth at 0.6 percent. Those are very low numbers…
…In fact, the average hourly earnings for nonmanagerial private sector workers rose 2.4 percent a year in that period. You may not feel like cheering about that, but it’s more than we might have expected, with inflation and productivity so weak. The real mystery, then, isn’t why wages are rising so slowly, but why they’re rising so fast…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/upshot/the-question-isnt-why-wage-gro...
When the prior numbers from Obama's days that included questionable figures because they failed to account for people who just gave up looking, came out the press gave a slightly different slant to the news.
1
Thank you Ms. Cohen for a balanced view of unemployment issues. Since wage growth is roughly at inflation levels the usual "unemployment" number represents a lot of people taking minimum wage jobs or dropping out of the labor force.
Remember, if there is no wage growth credit and loans are the only resource to expand the economy. This is a particularly fragile source of growth since consumer confidence can vaporize virtually instantly and the Trump Administration is hardly a steady rock designed to build confidence.
I also take issue with the multitude of reports that medium and small businesses have lots of "well paid" skilled jobs without those skills in the labor force. That description doesn't pass the smell test. This article says that small businesses are leery about training employees for jobs with special skills because they quit and move on. Huh? If those were really well paying jobs with competitive benefit packages and decent working conditions, why would the workers leave? The description doesn't fit the evidence. Sounds like employers are expecting special skills in jobs with low pay and minimal benefits. So indeed, once they have skills and experience, of course they move on. I'll get rebuttal to that comment from the employers, but let's hear comments from the workers that decided to move on.
Remember, if there is no wage growth credit and loans are the only resource to expand the economy. This is a particularly fragile source of growth since consumer confidence can vaporize virtually instantly and the Trump Administration is hardly a steady rock designed to build confidence.
I also take issue with the multitude of reports that medium and small businesses have lots of "well paid" skilled jobs without those skills in the labor force. That description doesn't pass the smell test. This article says that small businesses are leery about training employees for jobs with special skills because they quit and move on. Huh? If those were really well paying jobs with competitive benefit packages and decent working conditions, why would the workers leave? The description doesn't fit the evidence. Sounds like employers are expecting special skills in jobs with low pay and minimal benefits. So indeed, once they have skills and experience, of course they move on. I'll get rebuttal to that comment from the employers, but let's hear comments from the workers that decided to move on.
2
With global manufacturing of goods now, companies are stretched to the limits of productivity to make a profit. As a result, companies do not have the ability to raise prices on products. This is unlikely to change and will tend to keep wages low and inflation low. Past inflationary periods occurred when there was high demand for durable goods, energy was relatively expensive and manufactured items were not produced world wide at levels comparable to today. Back in the high inflation 70s in the US, electricity growth was on the order of 6 to 8% per year due to increasing demand across industrial sectors.
As energy becomes scarce and more expensive--which is going to happen-- this *equation* will adjust...exactly how in the future is tough to project.
As energy becomes scarce and more expensive--which is going to happen-- this *equation* will adjust...exactly how in the future is tough to project.
This country has a weak and immoral president. This is not the foundation of growth. People do not trust in Trump.
My wife and I cashed in our investments and paid off our home. We are also selling our business and preparing for another economic collapse. People have ZERO confidence in Trump!
My wife and I cashed in our investments and paid off our home. We are also selling our business and preparing for another economic collapse. People have ZERO confidence in Trump!
4
I am tired of hearing how the unemployment rate is inaccurate because many people quit looking for work. When I was unemployed, I received unemployment for all of three months, during which I had to show evidence of applying for openings. When my unemployment insurance ran out after three months, I attempted to continue posting proof of seeking employment, and was told since I no longer qualified for unemployment insurance I could not post proof of seeking employment. For over a desperate year I sought employment. No one, no agency ever asked me of my status, or whether I was seeking employment. So how would they know of my, or anyone in the same boat's intention if they don't track us?
3
A suggestion to the NTimes, my favorite source of real news.
Reports about the job market and wages should be moved to the political section. Trump's reelection bid depends on how the welfare of the middle class improves or not during the next 3 1/2 years.
Reports about the job market and wages should be moved to the political section. Trump's reelection bid depends on how the welfare of the middle class improves or not during the next 3 1/2 years.
4
The skilled are in high demand and others are struggling to find a job with a wage they can live on. The same applies in UK and perhaps has the same cause. Employers are seeking the skills they need without any consideration of the people who could grow into the job if they had the opportunity.
The only training I have read about in NYT is of an employee who was required to train an imported cheaper worker to do his job before he was sacked. In UK a similar attitude means that good British employees cannot get a better job because there are cheaper ones who can be imported from Europe.
The only training I have read about in NYT is of an employee who was required to train an imported cheaper worker to do his job before he was sacked. In UK a similar attitude means that good British employees cannot get a better job because there are cheaper ones who can be imported from Europe.
4
@irdac
Britain
Baloney. Skill has always commanded a premium. This has always been the case. And unemployment is exceptionally low in both Britain and the US.
Britain
Baloney. Skill has always commanded a premium. This has always been the case. And unemployment is exceptionally low in both Britain and the US.
So true,--I just returned from a trip to London. Upwards of 75% of my
encounters involving service workers--chauffeur from LHR to hotels, waitpersons in nearly all restaurants, hotel (Inter-Continental,Park Lane) reception and concierge, event and activity personnel, etc. Several years ago upon leaving Paddington station, I encountered a young man riding a bicycle around the neighborhood shouting..."Does anybody here speak English?". (As is well known, from Paddington to Edgeware, emigrants predominate.
encounters involving service workers--chauffeur from LHR to hotels, waitpersons in nearly all restaurants, hotel (Inter-Continental,Park Lane) reception and concierge, event and activity personnel, etc. Several years ago upon leaving Paddington station, I encountered a young man riding a bicycle around the neighborhood shouting..."Does anybody here speak English?". (As is well known, from Paddington to Edgeware, emigrants predominate.
here we go again... as long as European and Japanese rates are at or near 0%, bond buyers will buy US paper, thus raising the price and lowering the yield (i.e., rate)... as long as the rest of the world has lower rates, attempts by the Fed to raise ours will be futile
1
we go through the "when and how much will the Fed raise interest rates ?" debate every couple of months... but as long as European and Japanese rates are at or near zero, the Fed can try (again) to raise interest rates and (again) they will fail... nobody will buy bonds yielding 0 % if they can get 2% from the 10 year US treasury... and when they buy, the yield (i.e., rate) goes right back down - despite the best intentions of the Fed to have them rise... it's a self-cancelling process until / unless rates rise elsewhere as well
1
I don't suppose anyone remembers Trump's \Inauguration Day promise of 25M jobs over the next 10 years just a short 4 months ago. That means he has to hit 208k per month on average. After 4 months he is at 3/4 of that rate and from this article we learn "Month-after-month job gains in the 200,000 range are not sustainable longer term. The working-age population is growing too slowly to support that.”
Duh. So I suppose that this is all fake news.
Duh. So I suppose that this is all fake news.
6
When you pull into a Wal-Mart parking lot, just consider that America spends over $1 billion annually, so that its employees can even live. Thanks to its Everyday Low, Low Wages, and most workers don't even know, from week-to-week, how many hours they will work.
And they don't know when those hours will be, so they can take night courses to get a leg up, or even schedule a trip to the dentist. Oh yes, and no benefits for most, because they keep the weekly hours worked below that level, on purpose!
https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
And they don't know when those hours will be, so they can take night courses to get a leg up, or even schedule a trip to the dentist. Oh yes, and no benefits for most, because they keep the weekly hours worked below that level, on purpose!
https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
13
Why is it so hard to raise the interest rate? It only benefits the wealthy people to borrow large sum to purchase huge mansion and/or stocks with better returns. Mortgage interest deduction (MID) & paper losses from stocks are great for federal tax deductions. Due to oil downturn, Houston economy supposedly suffers a bit. On the contrary, several good neighborhood areas see expensive house prices appreciated 20 to 30% from 2012 to 2016. This is amazing. In the meantime, low and median price houses in the suburban are in need of buyers. But those customers are hard to find. Please raise the rate. It also hurts the retirees a great deal.
6
hey, economics 101. why/when does the fed raise interest rates? answer; to cool the economy by increasing the cost of money. is that what the last three job reports is telling us is needed?
2
Some, including Federal Reserve officials think that the current 4.3% headline unemployment rate is a reason to raise interest rates. Even those who don't complain about the sluggish 2% real GDP growth rate question why the relatively low headline unemployment rate is accompanied by the sluggish 2% real GDP growth rate. The answer is the decline in the labor force participation rate. Those who leave the labor force are not counted as unemployed. In previous economic cycles labor force participation was cyclical. Poor labor market conditions caused many to drop out of the labor force. These were called discouraged workers who may have given up looking for work after sending out hundreds of resumes and getting no responses. In prior recessions, as labor market conditions improved many of the discouraged workers rejoined the labor force. This was especially pronounced for prime working age men.
This, time there has been no significant increase in labor force participation as the unemployment rate declined. The labor force participation rate for prime working aged men is about as low as it has ever been since records began be kept in 1948.
Why? see: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3342635t labor force participation was cyclical . However, now dubious and fraudulent disability claims have vastly increased the number of those collecting disability with commensurate decreases in labor force participation and the unemployment rate. ..."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4008403
This, time there has been no significant increase in labor force participation as the unemployment rate declined. The labor force participation rate for prime working aged men is about as low as it has ever been since records began be kept in 1948.
Why? see: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3342635t labor force participation was cyclical . However, now dubious and fraudulent disability claims have vastly increased the number of those collecting disability with commensurate decreases in labor force participation and the unemployment rate. ..."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4008403
6
...employment gains in March and April combined were 66,000 less than previously reported…..
-BLS
March and April were revised down 22% and a weak May report. The FED has a little dilemma on its hands. The economy is moving along fairly well, and the stock market continues is climb to the “bubble” level. In my amateur wisdom I would still raise rates. Why, to keep some momentum going. If the FED pauses it may very well send the wrong message to the business world and they start tightening their belts. Besides these rate increases are relatively small, .75 to 1%. And the current interest rates are still much lower than other periods. I can remember mortgage interest rates in the 9% range. Once it spiked to 18% sometime in the 80’s.
-BLS
March and April were revised down 22% and a weak May report. The FED has a little dilemma on its hands. The economy is moving along fairly well, and the stock market continues is climb to the “bubble” level. In my amateur wisdom I would still raise rates. Why, to keep some momentum going. If the FED pauses it may very well send the wrong message to the business world and they start tightening their belts. Besides these rate increases are relatively small, .75 to 1%. And the current interest rates are still much lower than other periods. I can remember mortgage interest rates in the 9% range. Once it spiked to 18% sometime in the 80’s.
3
Cute little trick the Fed plays, keep interest rates fixed at abnormally low levels. Then when Obama is gone, raise them.
Now, watch the interest on the debt in the Government budget explode.
Now, watch the interest on the debt in the Government budget explode.
8
Well, since the numbers were positive, I guess Trump will treat this as real news, as opposed to fake news when the numbers are lower than expected, or when they pertain to when Obama was president.
2
Once you have deported 11 million undocumented foreign nationals unemployment will drop below 1 %, wages will increase by 25 % and the cost of living................well, let's not worry about the details...............
5
People who told us that increasing wages 25% through the deportation of illegal immigrants destroy the cost of living are the same people who told us that increasing wages more than 100% by mandating an increase of the minimum wage to $15.00 would produce only negligible increases on the cost of living. Some coherence in the arguments would be really appreciated
From the article:
"One negative sign was that the labor-force participation rate dropped, to 62.7 percent..."
Which should make it obvious to everyone, that the number which is always being announced, is a fraud. It does reflect the actual rate of unemployment. Not counting the people who can't get a job, isn't part of statistics - it's part of bold faced lying.
If there is so little unemployment, why do kids graduating college have difficulty find jobs? And why is decent employment for workers over 50 so hard to come by?
Not everyone is the ideal worker. Let's starting printing stories that tell the truth. I'm sure there must be some way to "fit" them in.
"One negative sign was that the labor-force participation rate dropped, to 62.7 percent..."
Which should make it obvious to everyone, that the number which is always being announced, is a fraud. It does reflect the actual rate of unemployment. Not counting the people who can't get a job, isn't part of statistics - it's part of bold faced lying.
If there is so little unemployment, why do kids graduating college have difficulty find jobs? And why is decent employment for workers over 50 so hard to come by?
Not everyone is the ideal worker. Let's starting printing stories that tell the truth. I'm sure there must be some way to "fit" them in.
18
that's "bald face"
7
It sounds to me like a continuation of the blah growth rate we got under Obama; subpar but steady GDP growth, low labor participation rates, and declining unemployment. For the Dems that said things were wonderful under Obama, things are still wonderful. For the Reps that said the economy was terrible under him, things must be still terrible.
5
Thank you President Obama. Your policies brought us back from the brink of disaster. Are we on the brink of another?
6
Don't worry, folks: any minute now we'll see tons of coal mining jobs opening up. Really; any second now! And if you've lost your job in retail you'll want to grab a helmet and a torch and head for Appalachia as soon as possible. Hey, why are you still reading this sentence?! Those jobs will be hot commodities!!
20
The 19th Century Trump Gold Coal Rush is coming !
All Trump University graduates are guaranteed a job.
All Trump University graduates are guaranteed a job.
18
Gotta remember though, if you want one of those very desirable coal mining jobs, you need to be able to pass a drug test.
5
Smuggled away under the climate deal is the economics report, well done. As we have seen with this long stagnant economy, the numbers hardly change as employees stay in their positions for inordinate amounts of time in a vast sea of few qualified positions. Those with the highest skills have a place, those without are left to rot. It is no wonder why productivity or wages don't grow. You must start hiring, training, investing. No one is interested in a job to nowhere with middling wages--even 15 dollars per hour. People want a career path. If they might leave within five years, so be it, it is the atmosphere business has created over the last generation or so.
Until companies jump back into the game, albeit with low demand across the field, demand and consumption will not rise. Keynes told us that positives lead to positives, negatives to negatives, it is a long chain reaction. The only way we can exit stagnance is by investing in the future. The companies who do fit the bill will be the ones benefiting in future, while the conservatives will be warped and destroyed, like the lazy always are in the battle field of business.
The low unemployment rate is actually a negative, if it were to reset to a healthy 5-6% that would mean employees could leave their jobs at will and find something else. The climate is still negative.
But again, to be clear, the impetus is not on employees to find specific skills, but for companies to invest, hire, train. Lazy free riders.
Until companies jump back into the game, albeit with low demand across the field, demand and consumption will not rise. Keynes told us that positives lead to positives, negatives to negatives, it is a long chain reaction. The only way we can exit stagnance is by investing in the future. The companies who do fit the bill will be the ones benefiting in future, while the conservatives will be warped and destroyed, like the lazy always are in the battle field of business.
The low unemployment rate is actually a negative, if it were to reset to a healthy 5-6% that would mean employees could leave their jobs at will and find something else. The climate is still negative.
But again, to be clear, the impetus is not on employees to find specific skills, but for companies to invest, hire, train. Lazy free riders.
5
Financial speculation is rampant, even among those who are close to poverty. You can't convince them that they're likely going to end up at risk. The only thing that will put a halt to it is normal interest rates, where a risk/reward calculation actually makes sense... to most people.
2
One of the voting governor's has set the baseline to 100,000. So rate hike in June is telegraphed. Any Fed watchers missing this do not deserve to earn a living in Fed watching
1
I just read Amy Goldstein's eye-opening book, "Janesville", about the Wisconsin town (represented in Congress by Paul Ryan) greatly affected by the 2008 closing of the Chevy Tahoe manufacturing plant, a jobs behemoth that had been the City's main employer for over 80 years. In short, thousands of employees at GM and its affiliated suppliers, et al, lost well-paying jobs and benefits that enabled them to live quite well in that midwest city. The aftermath was brutal for most of the laid-off employees with many settling for jobs paying barely half of what they earned before, and hundreds traveling hundreds of miles each week to another GM plant in Iowa. Most disturbing though was Paul Ryan's total lack of interest in the job "re-training" bureau and facility that had been set up and funded by the federal government. The director repeatedly requested Ryan's attendance yet he refused to go, seemingly uninterested in the welfare of the laid-off workers (could it be that a Janesville majority never voted for him?). And since so many of the workers were computer illiterate, they were unable to partake in meaningful educational and re-training efforts. The end result was devastation for many even though jobs were becoming plentiful: pay was significantly less, the benefits were minuscule, and Messr. Ryan and the Republicans fought every effort by the Obama Admin. to increase funding for job creation, infrastructure repair, etc. Ryan proved to be a coward when needed.
40
Ryan and is his cohorts are just evil. This is how its defined: you know something is wrong but you do it anyway. It is only a mistake if you don't understand.
1
Economic analysis is always a bit of a challenge for me, but I believe what these numbers show is not only fewer hires than the administration predicted (might I even say "promised"?) but also a continuing deceleration of wages. Another effort by Trump, Ryan et al to increase the difference between haves and have-nots.
8
Low unemployment is good, of course. And increases in wages are good even if very modest. But there is more under those numbers. What kinds of jobs are these? Is the positions that used to pay $21/hr prior to the big layoffs/contract give backs and now as they are being filled again pay $15/hr? Or are the service and hospitality jobs that can't support anything other than subsistence? As for rising wages, I'd like to know where those are - what jobs? I have seen my hourly pay increase 2% in the last 9 years. But that increase was coupled with takeaways in retirement and healthcare of 12%. Cost of living in that time rose another ~12%. This is not helpful in a consumer driven economy. But, the folks that have money in my state have been making out hand over fist in tax breaks. According to Artie Laffer our economy should be going gangbusters - but it's not. Maybe, just maybe, trickle down doesn't work.
20
It is too early to tell the effect of the demagogue Trump on the economy.
If he lets wall street and other corps run wild like in 2008, we could have a robust economy for 4-6-8 yrs until the depression comes again.
If he goes out of his way to ruin the country as soon as possible, we could have an implosion much sooner that that.
History has shown us that in the great majority of times, demagogues cause get harm to their countries.
The only variable is the time frame.
If he lets wall street and other corps run wild like in 2008, we could have a robust economy for 4-6-8 yrs until the depression comes again.
If he goes out of his way to ruin the country as soon as possible, we could have an implosion much sooner that that.
History has shown us that in the great majority of times, demagogues cause get harm to their countries.
The only variable is the time frame.
8
This is the time of year the US is flooded with H2b and H1b and J1 visa workers.
Pay them all 8-10 an hour then send them back to their home countries.
Why bother to hire Americans who may demand higher wages and or labor laws.
Traditionally this is the time of year that employment levels rise. Something is not right here at all. oh right, greed.
Pay them all 8-10 an hour then send them back to their home countries.
Why bother to hire Americans who may demand higher wages and or labor laws.
Traditionally this is the time of year that employment levels rise. Something is not right here at all. oh right, greed.
4
The bad news is that it is still a bit of a struggle for the average American youngster just finishing high school this year to get a real job but the good news is that my son's buddies thus working at McDonalds will give him a discount on a Triple Burger. America The Beautiful!
3
Rudolf,
Urge your son to learn a skilled trade and he will never want for work.
Urge your son to learn a skilled trade and he will never want for work.
2
More people are joining the gigging economy (TaskRabbit, Uber, Handy, etc.) as some cannot find full time employment.
7
Cheer up !
The worst of the Trump slump is yet to come.
As the Ignoramus-In-Chief repels foreign workers, tourists and ideas and floods the economy with millionaire tax cuts while collapsing the healthcare economy and accelerates his people-killing economy, American GDP will falter as Republican economic malpractice kicks into high incompetent gear.
It'll take time, but Trump and the GOP will drive us over another economic cliff.
Economic catastrophe is a Republican specialty.
The worst of the Trump slump is yet to come.
As the Ignoramus-In-Chief repels foreign workers, tourists and ideas and floods the economy with millionaire tax cuts while collapsing the healthcare economy and accelerates his people-killing economy, American GDP will falter as Republican economic malpractice kicks into high incompetent gear.
It'll take time, but Trump and the GOP will drive us over another economic cliff.
Economic catastrophe is a Republican specialty.
49
Exactly. One of the problems for Dems is that after the economy goes over the cliff they have to show up with the tow truck and pull it out. Unfortunately it takes so long to do that, that the voters can be convinced it's actually the Dems fault and they put the clowns behind the wheel again. Clinton cleaned up Reagan/Bush and was on the way to paying down the debt. That's right, government running a surplus. Bush went off the rails and Obama, though hamstrung, did what he could. Now what's the first thing these folks want to do? Dismantle everything "Obama" and re-institute austerity and trickle down. To borrow a quote, "Sad".
8
I hope somebody keeps reminding us that all these positive news are not because of DT. He hasn't developed any clear economic policy so far so this is all clearly the results of BO, the former POTUS.
So, is the economy doing well or doing bad ?
So, is the economy doing well or doing bad ?
7
So, to sum it up, wages are still terrible, job market participation terrible, and the Unemployment "rate" is so misleading as to be useless. And the Fed still might raise interest rates, because they live in Bizarro world.
31
What fraction of these jobs is in fast food and other minimum wage service industries? Wage growth is tapering off. Doesn't that mean that a lot of the jobs are ones that don't pay well. This article includes the more inclusive stataistic that labor force participation is at a very low level. But you have to search to find that number. Most reports don't include that number at all
Is there a reason why people don't believe the numbers? Yes, because "officials" cherry pick the numbers that give the economy the best appearance for the latest rash of rich politicians. The "official" numbers deliberately leave out the folks that feel they have no hope of finding a job that can provide them with a decent living. Deliberate deception is called lying in many circles, but maybe not if you are a politician. Maybe it is just "optimistic hyperbole" (Art of the Deal.)
Is there a reason why people don't believe the numbers? Yes, because "officials" cherry pick the numbers that give the economy the best appearance for the latest rash of rich politicians. The "official" numbers deliberately leave out the folks that feel they have no hope of finding a job that can provide them with a decent living. Deliberate deception is called lying in many circles, but maybe not if you are a politician. Maybe it is just "optimistic hyperbole" (Art of the Deal.)
12
Do you mean"truthful hyperbole"?
There are 5.6 million jobs in the U.S. that cannot be filled as we do not have the skilled people to fill them.
Mike Rowe (Dirty Jobs) is working hard to bring this issue to light.
Mike Rowe (Dirty Jobs) is working hard to bring this issue to light.
1
Raising interest rates, adds to the deficit, and public (tax) expenditures, as interest sensitive public borrowing is a large portion of federal expenditures, and so is BAD, until we pay down the national debt, maybe $1T per year ...??? or even 1/3 t / year, or $1B Every day for THIRTY YEARS
and that is only FEDERAL, states and localities have their own debt and interest obligations
until then no interest rate increases
and that is only FEDERAL, states and localities have their own debt and interest obligations
until then no interest rate increases
1
What clear from this is that job growth is slowing. Given trump's turning against anything Obama, and his inability and unwillingness to see the reality of economics, we should expect that job growth will continue to decline and eventually to grow again so that the unemployment rate will be great again. This should be good news for those who want to hire.
6
For years, the benchmark has been 150,000 jobs a month "just to keep up with population growth" so why is a 3-month average of 121,000 just fine and dandy? If the Fed raises interest rates it wouldn't be because of such "good" job numbers, it would be because there has been some sustained wage growth and we can't have THAT (might cause inflation, y'know).
5
Nowhere does anyone seem to realize how many people are working - in the cash only, underground economy.
If we could accurately count those people, I wonder what the participation rate would be.
Here in AZ, undocumented people have no choice but to work for cash. And many citizens are doing the same. Look for a handyman and try to find one who doesn't just want cash.
If we could accurately count those people, I wonder what the participation rate would be.
Here in AZ, undocumented people have no choice but to work for cash. And many citizens are doing the same. Look for a handyman and try to find one who doesn't just want cash.
18
I would love for the NYT to do a rigorous report on the underground economy.
Just thinking back over the past couple of years I have paid in cash tradesmen & service providers ranging from landscapers to pet sitters to handymen to water/well services to boat shrinkwrapping & towing to lawnmower repair to computer repair.
Not being an IRS agent I don't know if they report the income but I tend to doubt it. Another small business man asked me to make out my check directly to the gas station where he buys fuel for his fleet of trucks instead of to him.
I have a neighbor who does a brisk business fixing and setting up computers for people in the area; he either barters for services such as car repair or concrete repair, or asks clients to pay in gift cards from the area stores and restaurants he and his wife frequent. This computer repair bolsters their income and lifestyle considerably. I run a side business too and because I also have a well-paid salaried job, all of my freelance work is taxed at my highest rate of 28% plus state tax of 4.5% plus the FICA taxes -- so I am paying nearly 50 cents on the dollar in taxes while neighbor enjoys 100 percent of his underground income.
Think of all the babysitting/child care, household services, pet services, outdoor work, flea market sales, etc that are going unreported and untaxed while those of us who are honest do all the heavy lifting.
Just thinking back over the past couple of years I have paid in cash tradesmen & service providers ranging from landscapers to pet sitters to handymen to water/well services to boat shrinkwrapping & towing to lawnmower repair to computer repair.
Not being an IRS agent I don't know if they report the income but I tend to doubt it. Another small business man asked me to make out my check directly to the gas station where he buys fuel for his fleet of trucks instead of to him.
I have a neighbor who does a brisk business fixing and setting up computers for people in the area; he either barters for services such as car repair or concrete repair, or asks clients to pay in gift cards from the area stores and restaurants he and his wife frequent. This computer repair bolsters their income and lifestyle considerably. I run a side business too and because I also have a well-paid salaried job, all of my freelance work is taxed at my highest rate of 28% plus state tax of 4.5% plus the FICA taxes -- so I am paying nearly 50 cents on the dollar in taxes while neighbor enjoys 100 percent of his underground income.
Think of all the babysitting/child care, household services, pet services, outdoor work, flea market sales, etc that are going unreported and untaxed while those of us who are honest do all the heavy lifting.
21
There's also the 'bartering' economy. That's most likely picked up as well.
1
https://archive.org/details/ReportFromIronMountain
A problem for Humanity... since the fall of the first Tower of Babel. How to stabilize the human population, avoid racial/cultural imposition, design a socioeconomic system that is self-sustainable, while being satisfactory for a diverse and sovereign...but, cooperative world of viable countries.
A problem for Humanity... since the fall of the first Tower of Babel. How to stabilize the human population, avoid racial/cultural imposition, design a socioeconomic system that is self-sustainable, while being satisfactory for a diverse and sovereign...but, cooperative world of viable countries.
Actually the UE rate is inaccurate because 70 million social security retirees are unable to survive on their average retirement of less than $1000/month. People on limited fixed incomes are being forced into any work simply to pay for food and meds. No COLA for more than 3 years is killing senior citizens.
3
What's wrong with working if you can?
I forget -- do we believe these numbers or not?
15
Well, do YOU?
1
Depends on your political strip silly :)
1
These figures do not indicate those that are not counted because they no longer collect unemployment benefits or are no longer looking for a job.
10
bb: Um, reread the article...
2
And again the same questions arise:
How many of these jobs pay a living wage?
How many provide benefits?
How many are permanent?
How many offer opportunities for advancement in education or up the income ladder, or just in terms of promotions?
Who is being hired for these jobs: Americans, people on H1B visas, people with experience?
How many are paying better than entry level wages especially if the experience they require is greater than entry level?
How many of these jobs pay a living wage?
How many provide benefits?
How many are permanent?
How many offer opportunities for advancement in education or up the income ladder, or just in terms of promotions?
Who is being hired for these jobs: Americans, people on H1B visas, people with experience?
How many are paying better than entry level wages especially if the experience they require is greater than entry level?
41
Since when does having a job entitle you to benefits?
1
henr3y: So, Trump supporters are looking for big infrastructure projects to bring jobs. What happens when those projects are done? Infrastructure projects are not a way of sustaining job growth and availability.
For much of the answers to your questions, if they are negative in character it is because the US has been falling down on the job educating our kids, and catering to conservatives who cripple the economy by resisting the changes necessary to result in positive answers.
For much of the answers to your questions, if they are negative in character it is because the US has been falling down on the job educating our kids, and catering to conservatives who cripple the economy by resisting the changes necessary to result in positive answers.
3
Define "living wage." What does it cover, and at what amenity level?
Meat? If so, filet or hot dogs?
Clothing? $50 jeans or $5 thrift store ones?
Dependents? One kid and spouse?
Dwelling? Solo apartment or room in a boardinghouse?
There will never be a designated "living wage" because we will never agree on what sort of lifestyle a low-skill, low-wage worker merits.
Meat? If so, filet or hot dogs?
Clothing? $50 jeans or $5 thrift store ones?
Dependents? One kid and spouse?
Dwelling? Solo apartment or room in a boardinghouse?
There will never be a designated "living wage" because we will never agree on what sort of lifestyle a low-skill, low-wage worker merits.
1
Ok, so unemployment is down, or is it just the usual, where they're not counting certain people, like those who've given up, or those who are under employed, and that's most of those jobs.
12
Older workers remained disproportionately unemployed and underemployed. They are laid off or fired illegally, and our Internet employment culture makes it easy for employers to discriminate in hiring. Today, an older worker is anyone over age 50. Those who are over 60, despite long experience, great skills and good health, find it impossible to find new jobs once they've lost their former ones.
People today are living into their 80s. No middle class person, no matter how thrifty and conscientious, can survive 20 years or longer without a job. Indeed, people in their 50s and early 60s may still have children in college, because the parents attended graduate school and professional schools before marrying and beginning families.
Age discrimination kills. It is the last form of discrimination that is tolerated by the public with little complaint. Gag orders and other forms of coercion prevent many who have been forced from their jobs from speaking out, so people do not understand the full extent of the problem until someone close to them loses a job, followed by a house, followed by his or her health or life.
Any article on employment should highlight a plight of older workers. The media can play a large role in bringing this issue to the forefront. At the very least, the public should be aware of that, as older workers fall into poverty, they will create financial burdens for everyone else. Older workers want to work; workers are living longer; age discrimination must end.
People today are living into their 80s. No middle class person, no matter how thrifty and conscientious, can survive 20 years or longer without a job. Indeed, people in their 50s and early 60s may still have children in college, because the parents attended graduate school and professional schools before marrying and beginning families.
Age discrimination kills. It is the last form of discrimination that is tolerated by the public with little complaint. Gag orders and other forms of coercion prevent many who have been forced from their jobs from speaking out, so people do not understand the full extent of the problem until someone close to them loses a job, followed by a house, followed by his or her health or life.
Any article on employment should highlight a plight of older workers. The media can play a large role in bringing this issue to the forefront. At the very least, the public should be aware of that, as older workers fall into poverty, they will create financial burdens for everyone else. Older workers want to work; workers are living longer; age discrimination must end.
63
Bingo: age discrimination is rampant. Age discrimination combined with the demographic shift of aging baby boomers means that a large segment of the working population has been forced out, and once you are forced out it becomes increasingly difficult to re-enter the labour force at almost any level. I am particularly worried that, if GOP efforts to gut the ACA succeed, the individual entrepreneurial opportunities still available to older workers will become prohibitively risky without the current (admittedly threadbare) health care safety net.
When I got my exit package from Corporate America at 53, the only employment options were consulting that required travel -- in my case, a deal-breaker because of health. Instead, I downsized, and moved to an affordable community. I am extremely lucky -- but have literally hundreds of work colleagues I know/knew who have struggled in their 50's and 60's. Nothing is looming on the policy/legislation front that will help these folks, and as RMC states, age discrimination is one of the few socially-acceptable prejudices allowed in Corporate America.
When I got my exit package from Corporate America at 53, the only employment options were consulting that required travel -- in my case, a deal-breaker because of health. Instead, I downsized, and moved to an affordable community. I am extremely lucky -- but have literally hundreds of work colleagues I know/knew who have struggled in their 50's and 60's. Nothing is looming on the policy/legislation front that will help these folks, and as RMC states, age discrimination is one of the few socially-acceptable prejudices allowed in Corporate America.
The unemployment rate alone has lost its usefulness without additional context behind the calculation.
While it's true that the rate itself is the lowest it has been in 15 years, how much of that is due to people falling out of the workforce and giving up on finding jobs? The more that people leave the workforce, the smaller the numerator and the lower the rate.
Furthermore, the unemployment rate masks the realities about the types of jobs that people have secured. Are they higher paying jobs than people had before? Did someone previously have a full-time job with benefits but now is employed part-time without benefits?
The Democrats ran on the "facts" that the Obama administration presided over a precipitous drop in the employment rate but the discussion is more nuanced than that and they skimmed over some inconvenient truths.
While it's true that the rate itself is the lowest it has been in 15 years, how much of that is due to people falling out of the workforce and giving up on finding jobs? The more that people leave the workforce, the smaller the numerator and the lower the rate.
Furthermore, the unemployment rate masks the realities about the types of jobs that people have secured. Are they higher paying jobs than people had before? Did someone previously have a full-time job with benefits but now is employed part-time without benefits?
The Democrats ran on the "facts" that the Obama administration presided over a precipitous drop in the employment rate but the discussion is more nuanced than that and they skimmed over some inconvenient truths.
23
The conversation is slanted either way depending on the party and the desired story line. The U.S. economy is strong, there are 5.6 million job openings in the U.S. in the skilled trades, and nobody to fill them.
1
1. The types of jobs for humans to do are changing. If the workforce doesn't adjust accordingly, it will get further and further out of step with where the world job market is going.
2. I haven't heard a Democrat claim any "precipitous" drop in unemployment. It is a definite fact that the employment picture in general now is MUCH better than it was when Obama first took office, after reversing the downward trend that ran on inertia from Bush's time well into 2009.
3. If Congress doesn't cooperate, a President is very limited in what s/he can do to create jobs. After 2010, Obama had little or no cooperation from Congress, and Republicans were content to keep blaming Obama for any job woes instead of doing something about it themselves.
2. I haven't heard a Democrat claim any "precipitous" drop in unemployment. It is a definite fact that the employment picture in general now is MUCH better than it was when Obama first took office, after reversing the downward trend that ran on inertia from Bush's time well into 2009.
3. If Congress doesn't cooperate, a President is very limited in what s/he can do to create jobs. After 2010, Obama had little or no cooperation from Congress, and Republicans were content to keep blaming Obama for any job woes instead of doing something about it themselves.
4
Congress also blocked a bill that would have incentivized hiring the long-term unemployed, and they instituted policies of austerity in a recession--which is about the worst thing you can do for growth in downtimes. Congress sits on its hands unless it's to help their customers--wealthy donors giving towards their reelection. Those donors are all the top corporations, like GE and AT&T, rather than simply wealthy individuals, as shown in a recent HBO documentary on lobbying and giving.
The country needs protections against gerrymandering in general, but especially against the pernicious cycle of instituted bribery in elections. Having to run every two years, with campaign finance laws the way they are, is unreasonable. We must either elongate the terms to 3-4 years (House), or switch to short mandated election cycles which span only 3-4 months before November, and publicly financed to a delimited cap.
The country needs protections against gerrymandering in general, but especially against the pernicious cycle of instituted bribery in elections. Having to run every two years, with campaign finance laws the way they are, is unreasonable. We must either elongate the terms to 3-4 years (House), or switch to short mandated election cycles which span only 3-4 months before November, and publicly financed to a delimited cap.
3