I blame Japan going to war against China.
That ended up with a million and a half Russians with good equipment coming down on less than half that many Japanese in the summer of '45 with Japanese soldiers hand-making bayonets out of scrap metal because they were out of ammo.
The Soviets glommed onto Korea and the Sakalins and thought they should have supervised MacArthur's Japanese occupation. It took years for the Chinese to oust Russians from Manchuria. That gave Kim Il Jung his opening to play both the Russians and the Chinese.
Some where Stalin is still gloating over that one.
That ended up with a million and a half Russians with good equipment coming down on less than half that many Japanese in the summer of '45 with Japanese soldiers hand-making bayonets out of scrap metal because they were out of ammo.
The Soviets glommed onto Korea and the Sakalins and thought they should have supervised MacArthur's Japanese occupation. It took years for the Chinese to oust Russians from Manchuria. That gave Kim Il Jung his opening to play both the Russians and the Chinese.
Some where Stalin is still gloating over that one.
1
There have been detailed reports that Chinese companies are supplying North Korea with "vital" parts for their missile program. Some commentators muse that either China's government is complicit in this supply or that it cannot control the companies that are supplying the parts. The latter is laughable - China is a totalitarian government in full control of every company capable of supply missile components. Further, now we see that with great frequency North Korean missiles are exploding soon after launch. Could it be that China is now purposefully supplying faulty components? Not too farfetched - if North Korea ever succeeds in launching an ICBM, China now knows that the US will attack, the worst outcome for the PRC.
One thing I haven't noticed lately, or maybe NYT is not reporting on it, is china running around thumping it's chest, showing off it's newest flat top aircraft carrier (singular), and backfilling some atolls to make some more air bases… Heck I thought they were going to control the whole area and now they're playing footsie with North Korea, like an errant child? What happened to this aggressive island-building posture that they had not too long ago? I was really upset at the way China was gobbling up things… But enemy of my enemy is my friend ,I guess
To clarify what I mean by playing "footsie" with The north is taking symbolic actions like cutting off the coal supply after they've shipped the winter quota as reported by NYT.
Once Korea unifies it will go under China's strategic umbrella. The Chinese author is right, ironically N Korea gives the US leverage with the S Koreans who genuinely dislike being under USA protection.
1
Check how much the South Korean economy is worth. Money talks louder than any wounded pride, no?
North Korea reminds me of a couple thousand zombie malls, forever empty but still looking like they could BE something one day.
North Korea reminds me of a couple thousand zombie malls, forever empty but still looking like they could BE something one day.
The best for China is to invade North Korea if and when the US starts bombing or missile attack. By this invasion, China can change the regime in North Korea for a China-friendly one. The US attack will become an good excuse for China to cross the border as a protector of North Korea. This will strengthen China strategically, and will shake military alliance between the US and Japan.
1
Please don't encourage actions that will cost a lot of lives. North Korea isn't going to go down without a hard fight.
China is between a rock and a hard place.
Yes, it doesn't like that operetta dictator in Pyongyang. It would like to see him less bellicose and more directed at building his country.
But they don't like the prospect of American troops at their borders and they don't trust the US on this after what it pulled off with Russia regarding the eastward expansion of NATO. Neither do they like the deployment of the Thaad system that is seen as an US effort to neutralize China's nuclear deterrence. And they are disgusted by the way the US has blocked any effort to reach a peace agreement on the Korean peninsula.
Yes, it doesn't like that operetta dictator in Pyongyang. It would like to see him less bellicose and more directed at building his country.
But they don't like the prospect of American troops at their borders and they don't trust the US on this after what it pulled off with Russia regarding the eastward expansion of NATO. Neither do they like the deployment of the Thaad system that is seen as an US effort to neutralize China's nuclear deterrence. And they are disgusted by the way the US has blocked any effort to reach a peace agreement on the Korean peninsula.
North Korea is NOT a friend of China, and a potential enemy. But US was, is and will still be China's largest threat. It is not a perception, it is a fact back by US' actions against China. US has never, and will not stop trying to contain China and undermine China's interests.
1
Criticism of North Korea from China can be interpreted in two ways.
Either the Chinese political leadership is convinced of the clear and present danger presented by the faceoff in the Korean peninsula or Beijing is playing the good cop/bad cop routine with Washington. Soon, we'll find out.
According to Doctor Kissinger, Chinese diplomacy is always guided by strategic patience while American diplomacy in the Trump era is Terra incognita.
Either the Chinese political leadership is convinced of the clear and present danger presented by the faceoff in the Korean peninsula or Beijing is playing the good cop/bad cop routine with Washington. Soon, we'll find out.
According to Doctor Kissinger, Chinese diplomacy is always guided by strategic patience while American diplomacy in the Trump era is Terra incognita.
4
Don't be silly, Mr Shen won't be speaking out without some tacit consent from some power brokers if not the orthodoxy. And the fact that N Korea has been making China lose face - the most recent is to fire off a missile test when Xi was visiting Trump - may suggest Kim has pushed his luck one step too deep in China's psyche. Even before, China has pulled a few levers.
People say the U.S. has been engaging in cyber against N Korea but they overlook N Korea's cyber is at the mercy of China and the PLA's cyber unit is a respectable lot
People say the U.S. has been engaging in cyber against N Korea but they overlook N Korea's cyber is at the mercy of China and the PLA's cyber unit is a respectable lot
3
For N Korea giving up nukes means regime change. It's that simple. Trump just made a big mistake, though. US ships were never headed to N Korea as Kim Jong Un now knows. Trump's attack on Assad was totally ineffective, Trump warned Putin, who warned Assad. Kim Jong Un has been empowered.
1
Among Britain and Europe, the U.S., Russia, and China, there is also the overriding principle of Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons, which in the wrong hands, either intentionally or by accident, can destroy the world as we know it. You would think, if nothing else, they would be in strong agreement on this, and ready to take joint action to prevent rogue states from acquiring these weapons.
I just heard that APPLE is against any change in China's policy toward North Korea. If the Chinese get closer to South Korea as Mr Shen suggests then the Galaxy 8 would become the number 1 or seller of phones in China.
6
Even though I'm dictating this on/to my iPad,very good point. Thanks
Except for one major thing; they might have to take a big price cut, to be cheaper than an Apple phone… And overcoming the status symbol thing might be hard too
China puts big pressure on North Korea and there are tough negotiations between China, USA, North Korea and North Korea stops becoming a nuclear power and they get help, lifting of all sanctions and we remove all our troops from south Korea. It would be a slow process but it is doable. The hard part is the clown running things in North Korea. Let us hope for the best. If China puts effort in to this and we must let them try before we do anything drastic then the Chinese have skin in the game and they are going to be quite annoyed at North Korea for not coming to the table.
if you honestly believe that the us would remove all troops from south Korea, you are incredibly naïve. it will never happen. oh sure, north Korea, we trust that you really halted your nuclear program. we'll go ahead and pull out our troops now. but remember, no funny business... come on, man!
You know what's sad? It's the population of NK that will suffer from these new Chinese sanctions - not the elite. It is, sadly, time to free the citizens of NK. The price is very high but that is the cost of letting this fester for 50 years. The longer this continues the higher the cost. I despise donnie but it is now time and my pal Obama dropped the ball on this one.
4
Excellent point. The leadership and privileged in North Korea regularly travel to China and can purchase what they want. The ordinary North Korean, who are human beings who simply want a safe, secure home, will suffer. Warm clothing, food and school supplies will be in short supply and the long trek to the local fields to harvest food will continue. Its a shell game--and as usual, the little stones under the shells have nothing to say about it.
I'm glad there is someone like Mr. Shen, who has steadfastly devoted more than a little time in understanding the origins of the PRCs role in the Korean War.
The PRC desperately needs someone who can offer a better view of their mistakes, which the Party cadre dogedly resists acknowledging or understanding. I've often wondered why the Party leadership was so slow to realize that South Korea is far more important a partner for their future than the DPRK, offering so much more in every way imaginable.
The world also needs more people like Mr. Shen who can help counter the effect of having too many ideological traditionalists in positions of influence.
The PRC desperately needs someone who can offer a better view of their mistakes, which the Party cadre dogedly resists acknowledging or understanding. I've often wondered why the Party leadership was so slow to realize that South Korea is far more important a partner for their future than the DPRK, offering so much more in every way imaginable.
The world also needs more people like Mr. Shen who can help counter the effect of having too many ideological traditionalists in positions of influence.
10
I don't necessarily feel that, from China's point of view, the situation with north Korea revolves around the north being "better" for China's growth or overall well-being than the south. Rather, I think you will find its more a matter of China not wanting to incur any retaliatory measures against their people by north Korea should China fail to maintain relations, or cut ties altogether. everyone is well aware that if worse comes to worst and war breaks out, north Korea would ultimately lose the fight. the problem, however, lies in the fact that north Korea will not go down without taking as many innocent lives along with them as possible, which is precisely what the US, China, Japan, et. al. wish to avoid.
The US should offer North Korea a peace treaty that leaves the present border intact. It would be a win for the US either way. If North Korea refuses the offer, it takes the wind out of their sails and undermines their relationship with China even further. If they accept the offer, the upside for the US is we can eventually reduce our expenses by reducing our troop commitments, and there really is no downside.
My bet is that North Korea won't accept such an offer, as doing so would remove the only thing that allows the present regime to survive, namely, painting the US & South Korea as an existential threat.
My bet is that North Korea won't accept such an offer, as doing so would remove the only thing that allows the present regime to survive, namely, painting the US & South Korea as an existential threat.
7
What is China’s position? It is very sensible. Their proposal is for NK to stop its nuclear and missile testing and for the US and SK to end their unending war games. Then the sides will negotiate a treaty of peace replacing the armistice of 1953. This treaty would guarantee the territorial integrity of NK and SK and include denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Of course, you will never hear this this is on CNN, MSNBC, FOX, etc. Fortunately, it looks like Trump is willing to make a deal like than and China will probably be happy to let him take all the credit.
5
North Korea is a feudal dictatorship police state. really.
how reasonable. peace baby!
how reasonable. peace baby!
The only path to a united Korea is through the Chinese. They are the guarentor of North Koreas fate, and the US must get their help and support to defeat Kim Jung Uns regime, which currently holds several hundred thousand of its own citizens in concentration camps, and who just assassinated the leaders half brother with a weapon if mass destruction.
If North Korea ever puts a nucleae bomb on a missle, its over. The US AND China must act now, and act decisively.
If North Korea ever puts a nucleae bomb on a missle, its over. The US AND China must act now, and act decisively.
11
East Germany collapsed when massive numbers of refugees were able to flee and escape to West Germany. Germany was able to reunite. Perhaps the same thing could happen in Korea. The United States should offer to help China pay the cost of letting refugees from North Korea flee to South Korea. We should offer to help South Korea deal with the costs of integrating these escapees. Perhaps North Korea would then cease to exist, just as East Germany did.
The costs would be trivial compared with the costs of defense or war.
The costs would be trivial compared with the costs of defense or war.
5
Yes but... the Chinese can well afford this. They are experts in developing " difficult" countries.
Not so fast, please, lest you forget that Pope John Paul II played a huge role between the US and Russia to get the wall down.
1
As a younger more progressive generation in South Korea ( and in China to a lesser extent) increases its political and cultural influence , China has less to fear, and more to gain from improving its relations with South Korea.
Now is the time for them to seize the day and adjust their strategic planning to changing conditions.
Now is the time for them to seize the day and adjust their strategic planning to changing conditions.
6
Great reporting. A small but encouraging sign that China is beginning to think about engage with the outside world on generally accepted terms. China may be the "Middle Kingdom" in its worldview, but there is only one world and China is but one part of that world.
4
I just hope that when the inevitable reunion of the peninsula takes place, that the the demilitarized zone will not be developed. All these years of zero human activity has made this area one of the most beautiful and pristine on earth. Almost no examples of that type of temperate forest are in this condition anywhere.
China is probably now drawing up plans for a palace coup with eventual reunification as the end product.
China is probably now drawing up plans for a palace coup with eventual reunification as the end product.
4
China does NOT want a government in Seoul controlling the whole peninsula the way happened in Germany with reunification where soviets lost any influence. They will not allow a reunification.
2
And I thought there was a lot of "tree hugger" in my area - Santa Cruz; nothing wrong with it, but the real politic simply don't work that way
This article frames an important question in Chinese politics; do you value economic or political ties more? Currently North Korea is an ally politically because they follow the same MO of a top down controlled state that is at odds with the West. There is a lot of value to be had by painting the West (See the U.S. and her allies) as the bully of the schoolyard and China as the benevolent benefactor helping to protect a weak nation. Propaganda like this helps keep their people under control. On the other hand, China could be in a better position economically if it stopped propping up the weak dictatorship and strengthened ties to the U.S. We will have to see which policy they choose.
8
I'm puzzled that China sells North Korea parts for its missiles. Are they that money mad to continue enabling a fat fratricidal despot whose modus operandi is to undermine China's vaunted efforts for stability in the region??
5
Where did you hear that China sells missile parts to NK? I thing UNSC resolutions prohibit that, and China is very careful about such matters.
1
Obama carefully fretted and wrung his hands. No consequences for the bullies of the world under his Noble Peace Prize reign. Thugs around the world were emboldened. Now China sees the consequences, the writing on the wall.
3
The Chinese appear to understand that N Korea is a burr under their saddle otherwise Shen would be in la la land and his continued spouting of anti No Korea rhetoric would invisible. He is China's appointed agent of change.
5
I think President Xi Jinping is missing a great opportunity here. Just imagine if he could arrange a Palace Coup in North Korea. (1) He would eliminate a crazy person with the bomb right on his border. (2) If he could bring the Koreas together, he might well win the Nobel Peace Prize. (3) With one Korea, think what a trading partner that would be for China. And (4) with the crazy person gone, why would America need to keep all of those military people sitting right next to China? That would have to be really sweet for China! And it is all there for the taking. Think about it Xi.
14
As we have seen time and time again - regime change is an ugly thing. It is, however, time for the Chinese to facilitate regime change on the peninsula. This is not a situation for western/Democratic intervention. Crazy donnie will force Beijing to do the right thing.
3
It's not that simple, of course. Yet China, for its own good, must start thinking more creatively about the North Korean problem. The status quo can't go on much longer. The problem is that a trump-led US is a dubious partner in moving forward The upcoming election in South Korea should result in an interesting new dimension to the problem.
For USA no one is friend. its about what is the use now. Expiry date for friendship is any time. Any country trusting USA to do good thing do not doing service to their country. Every country is on their own. Every country should get nuke to defend itself from aggressor. Question is always going to be how these nukes managed and the process on how its initated. Best is small countries do not own nuke but then USA should n't bully countries and bombing left and right out of middle east murdering woman and children and killing people with vaccine. Only stupid will trust USA. For North korea to abandon missile is easy. REMOVE US BASE from SOUTH KOREA and JAPAN.
2
(1)Grant us the serenity to accept the things we cannot change, (2)the courage to change the things we can, and (3)the wisdom to know the difference. The US will always be self serving (1), no one will ever get a deviation from that course (2), and any thoughts that we may change our policies are foolish (3).
2
I do not think China is a sensible nation itself (free Tibet), but even so, I wonder how Chinese people could feel comfortable with being the "closest ally" of the world's most weird, crazy, poor, hated country. What do they get, some coals? South Korea has better things to offer, how about some new Galaxy phones and TV shows?
3
China has seems to have a new optimism or openness...that's what comes of newfound economic progress, methinks.
1
If North Korean military strategists are dumb enough to go nuclear - it will surely spell the end of North Korea...and I don't think that suits China. The non-diplomatic US option is a massive non-nuclear pre-emptive strike to take out North Korean manufacturing, storage and supply lines - which would upset the Chinese applecart. China's best option on the other hand is to force Kim Jong Un to zip it...failing that China might have to adopt the OMG solution - to occupy or annex North Korea. I can't decide whether that's a good thing or a bad thing...most likely it's not good. And while on the subject - is there a post-apocalypse Marshall Plan somewhere in a Pentagon filing cabinet - because short of a Pyongyang Resort, Spa and Golf Club - it's most unlikely POTUS has one.
7
Taiwan. North Korea. A fair trade I'd say...
4
That's very Trumpian of you to suggest.
Taiwan has evolved to become a beacon of democracy and economic success who's citizens would object to any change in governance. North Korea is an unimaginable horror that would collapse if not for assistance from the PRC whose people would rejoice once they were enlightened from lifetimes of propaganda. Your notion of a "fair trade" escapes me.
And just like that, ripping up the TPP deal and then challenging China will be viewed as Trump's major blunders in capitulating American exposure, trade and power in East Asia and the South Pacific.
Tired of the "winning"
Exhausted by the spinning
Trump's a disaster
And it's only the beginning
Tired of the "winning"
Exhausted by the spinning
Trump's a disaster
And it's only the beginning
10
TPP was a sell out to big pharma, Trump was correct to scrap it. Hillary said she would have as well.
Trade between China and South Korea is many, many times as large as that with North Korea. S. Korea has made massive capital investments in China. A good portion of every mobile phone built and sold in China (and the world, for that matter) is S. Korean components.
Of course South Korea is the one that China wants to woo and "bring into the fold."
I highly doubt that South Koreans will want to abandon their hard-won democracy though.
Of course South Korea is the one that China wants to woo and "bring into the fold."
I highly doubt that South Koreans will want to abandon their hard-won democracy though.
6
The current American administration's "policy" over North Korea is a dangerous looser. Previous administrations had the right policy. Just ignore them. Let them build their atomic weapons, missiles and massive armed forces. They will only use them if directly threatened.
We seem to have forgotten what happened to the Soviet Union. After 60 years they collapsed without a war. The same will happen to North Korea if we do not engage in testosterone boosted confrontations. North Korea knows that if they initiate any military attack on the United States or it's allies South Korea will become an island.
We seem to have forgotten what happened to the Soviet Union. After 60 years they collapsed without a war. The same will happen to North Korea if we do not engage in testosterone boosted confrontations. North Korea knows that if they initiate any military attack on the United States or it's allies South Korea will become an island.
9
The problem with that analogy is that no matter how bad the CCCP got they were still governed by rational actors. You can't say that about North Korea
1
Time for the US to just pack up and leave S Korea. Come on Donald, make the deal. We leave, China gets rid of the mafia clan running the dprk. Nobels for Xi and the Con.
4
LOL, like this isn't the official word. Pretty soon China will have always been at war with North Korea. Don't be so naive.
2
I have a question: Does the United States really want a Chinese government more closely aligned with South Korea? We obviously want to stymie North Korean nuclear ambitions. It would be nice to see the entire organization collapse in a planned demolition. However, if China reorients to become South Korea's benefactor as Mr. Shen suggests, isn't US influence in the region significantly marginalized? Perhaps this is why Mr. Shen hasn't been censored yet. The idea would be a shift in policy for China but the advantage likely goes to the Chinese in the end.
9
Wow !! Possibly the most important article in a while.
3
Is it possible to get an English translation of the speech?
2
ordinary Chinese people, especially the younger generation born after Chinese society opened up to western economy and culture, have been deriding North Korea for quite a few years. The government was sensitive to it for a while, usually blocking the comment sections of news articles related to NK, leaving no chance for readers to air their frustration to NK. But now (maybe for the past couple of years) it seems the government does not care anymore. For the past few days when Trump was threatening war against NK, you can read tens of thousands of comments on Chinese news websites wishing Kim to be killed. So there is definitely a change in not only people's attitude in China, but also in the government's stance on this issue. However, wishing full cooperation with China is not realistic as they have their own national interest in NK. Time for Trump to make a deal with them, tie the NK issue with their other interests, and maybe they will cooperate more.
12
I believe one reason why China is willing to tolerate North Korea is because the DPRK occupies much of America's Pacific forces and resources while also serving as a distraction from China's current expansion in the South China Sea. Keeping the US distracted and stretched out allows China to continue expansion while also weakening the US from allocating military money to more needed infrastructure, healthcare, and education spending, thus lowering the competition from America to China.
Essentially, China probably views DPRK as a drain on the US.
Essentially, China probably views DPRK as a drain on the US.
14
Yes, it will be a drain on the U.S. budget--when we deploy more THAAD installations and military presence in China's backyard in response to the NK threat. I'm sure China will love that.
China, the US, Japan and S. Korea should organize a joint conference of public and private interests to start the business of planning a just and functioning government for N. Korea after the fall of the little mad-man.
Is a German style reunification appropriate? How much aid would be required to rebuild infrastructure and educate the north Korean people about how the new system works?
It seems like the threat of nuclear war should make all of the above people willing to pitch in and help carry the financial burden. The population of N. Korea is only about 1/2 that of S. Korea. So really, how much would it cost?
Work out a detailed plan for a better future for the N. Korean people and then pre-load it on a million iPads -- along with satellite internet links and maybe a video of N. Korean defectors explain that it's a serious and viable offer -- then parachute them into the country.
By all accounts life in the N. is pretty hellish. I can't imagine that people would continue to put up with it if they knew they had an alternative.
Is a German style reunification appropriate? How much aid would be required to rebuild infrastructure and educate the north Korean people about how the new system works?
It seems like the threat of nuclear war should make all of the above people willing to pitch in and help carry the financial burden. The population of N. Korea is only about 1/2 that of S. Korea. So really, how much would it cost?
Work out a detailed plan for a better future for the N. Korean people and then pre-load it on a million iPads -- along with satellite internet links and maybe a video of N. Korean defectors explain that it's a serious and viable offer -- then parachute them into the country.
By all accounts life in the N. is pretty hellish. I can't imagine that people would continue to put up with it if they knew they had an alternative.
3
So perhaps China would be better served to be friends with the US, South Korea and Japan rather that a friend that causes you a lot of head aches like North Korea. Who knew that they could be rational if actually asked to assist us and given a realistic option. What a difference a Trump makes.
1
A significant reason China supports North Korea is that China essentially created it. It would not have come into being, or survived this long, without China's support. The same could be said about US support of Taiwan. All else being equal (which of course it isn't) is it reasonable to expect China to drop their historical support for North Korea while the US continues to support another post-WW2 anachronism?
2
Yes, yes it is. We have an official policy on Taiwan that as long as force is not used they can merge with the Chinese mainland. And of course we could crash their economy if they don't compromise on things we desire. Not just this issue.
3
Is the government of China willing to risk the well being of all Chinese people to support North Korea?
An atomic exchange in the neighborhood would be an environmental calamity for China.
Act now and stop North Korea before KJ Un has the power to do that to you.
Delaying tactics only increase the risk. Part of leadership is knowing when a hard decision must be taken.
An atomic exchange in the neighborhood would be an environmental calamity for China.
Act now and stop North Korea before KJ Un has the power to do that to you.
Delaying tactics only increase the risk. Part of leadership is knowing when a hard decision must be taken.
2
Someday soon the North Koreans will realize that they have more to gain by holding China hostage than the US. NK's game has been to play off China against the US. NK's biggest fear should be when the US and China work together to solve the NK dilemma. Then the days will be numbered for the NK regime. Kim will overplay his hand and force China to pick a path. China's long term interests are far more advanced by working together with the US than supporting NK. The US's interests are far more advanced by encouraging China to see this and giving them the space to work with us. I almost wonder if there is a deal playing out in the background and what we are seeing is elaborate theater. Or at least that is my hope.
5
It's about time. When China's self interest aligns with global interest and peace, what is the downside?
1
It's easy to see the ripple effect of having an actual leader in the White House, whose objectives are stabilizing the Korean peninsula, rather than allowing North Korea's threat to grow.
Rather than shrink from decision-making as his predecessors have been doing for the past quarter-century, President Trump's forcefulness has, in less than three months in office, begun to create new and more intelligent opposition to earth's most dangerous national leader.
Rather than shrink from decision-making as his predecessors have been doing for the past quarter-century, President Trump's forcefulness has, in less than three months in office, begun to create new and more intelligent opposition to earth's most dangerous national leader.
3
earth's most dangerous national leader.
One could argue a point on who that is.
One could argue a point on who that is.
1
Your implication strongly suggests you think that's our President. I find the point to argue then, is whether your hatred for a fellow American is or isn't blinding you from seeing how truly maniacal, how truly psychopathic, and how immediately dangerous Norh Korea is to civilization on earth. I cannot imagine your cynicism and wont for cleverness has so consumed you.
3
Making waves ignoring a realism isn't cynicism?
NORTH KOREA COULD "WIN"
Mr. Un of N. Korea has a HUGE ego, and would no doubt love to go down in History for the next 10,000 years as a Most Important Man.
Here is the easy and obvious way he can do that:
a. N. Korea is famous for smuggling drugs and everything else throughout the world.
b. Mr. Un has an EMP Nuke ready to go on land, but not yet downsized for rocket.
c. Simply bring the EMP-Nuke into California, either by yacht or from Mexico, and haul it up to Mount Hamilton just East of Silicon Valley, and detonate.
d. That could take out the entire Grid for California, especially including the most important Silicon Valley.
e. Sure, China and the US would undo Mr. Un, but that's a Hell of a lot better for him, than for him to admit defeat! North Koreans and Mr. Un would be so Proud!
f. Mr. Un could accomplish this in the next 3 weeks.
Unfortunately, I live just a few miles from Mount Hamilton....
Mr. Un of N. Korea has a HUGE ego, and would no doubt love to go down in History for the next 10,000 years as a Most Important Man.
Here is the easy and obvious way he can do that:
a. N. Korea is famous for smuggling drugs and everything else throughout the world.
b. Mr. Un has an EMP Nuke ready to go on land, but not yet downsized for rocket.
c. Simply bring the EMP-Nuke into California, either by yacht or from Mexico, and haul it up to Mount Hamilton just East of Silicon Valley, and detonate.
d. That could take out the entire Grid for California, especially including the most important Silicon Valley.
e. Sure, China and the US would undo Mr. Un, but that's a Hell of a lot better for him, than for him to admit defeat! North Koreans and Mr. Un would be so Proud!
f. Mr. Un could accomplish this in the next 3 weeks.
Unfortunately, I live just a few miles from Mount Hamilton....
2
His last name is Kim. It's Mr. Kim. Like Mr. Saddam. Many languages that are not English put the family name first. Thank you.
4
Not so easy to import nuclear bombs, and you can make an EMP without a nuclear device as well. And well California is annoying anyway.
1
I look forward to reading Mr. Shen's book on Chinese-North Korean relations.
I think Shen is not doing jail time yet because Xi really wants to dump Kimchee kid, but want to see what ashen's test balloon come back with. He cant be seen as weak knee with pychopath Trump by billions of Chinese and keep his job!
If public opinion is against working with Trump, Shen can pack his belongings and head straight to jail, No $200! Otherswise, it would be wise for Trump not to boast that he outsmarted Xi !
If public opinion is against working with Trump, Shen can pack his belongings and head straight to jail, No $200! Otherswise, it would be wise for Trump not to boast that he outsmarted Xi !
2
The only reason Shen's views could be published is that China ruler Xi Jinping told him to do that. China will drop N. Korea soon, the way an old and sick dog is taken to the Vet for a little shot. Perhaps explains why the US Military was heading for Indonesia and Australia.
5
Hilarious analogy. Love it.
What sources fund North Korea?
Why do you insist that they really need funds? Probably illegal ones.
Trade with China makes up most of the funding that North Korea manages to get. North Korea does produce a variety of items, especially raw materials like coal, then sells it right across their northern border to China. That's why China holds so much power over North Korea; with so few countries willing to trade with them, North Korea needs China as an intermediary to purchase vital items like oil/fuel for both its military and economy.
1
I recently attended a recital at Philadelphia's Curtis Institute of Music -- a wonderful affair with a Greek cellist and a Chinese pianist. How bright and gifted these young musicians are! As a happily peripheral observer of our idiotic politicians, I am struck, over and over, that China is on the rise and unless we can curb the elementary-school "adults" and faux populists tlike Trump, we are on a downhill slide. I really hope China allies itself with South Korea.
One reason China has been propping up the Kim regime is that it wants no part of the humanitarian crisis that will follow.
Millions of North Koreans, who only know Kim regime lies, will have to be reprogrammed to function in a world they know nothing about.
Millions of North Koreans, who only know Kim regime lies, will have to be reprogrammed to function in a world they know nothing about.
7
I know this isn't politically correct as to the solution, but what's the difference between a madman with a bomb strapped to his body in a mall, and Kim Jun Un with a nuclear arsenal amidst heavily populated areas? Little. But they're both holding everyone else hostage. He's already made threats. Be guided accordingly.
3
The fact that Shen Zhihua is still taking publicly indicates that China is beginning to re-think it's policy towards North Korea.
This is a wonderful opportunity to build a new world order benefitting hundreds of millions through cooperation and trust, which requires skilled negotitions on all sides....like the Paris Agreement.
I just wish we had a President who was up to the task.
"America first" so so early last century.
This is a wonderful opportunity to build a new world order benefitting hundreds of millions through cooperation and trust, which requires skilled negotitions on all sides....like the Paris Agreement.
I just wish we had a President who was up to the task.
"America first" so so early last century.
Reading the comments feels like watching a pinball careen around the board as every sort of theory, prejudice, and tea leaf reading gets expressed, some of which may actually be right, but who can tell? I don't know, and I'm not one to give the NYTimes a carte blanch on an uninterested reading of the situation. But, articles like this restore my faith in the necessity of good, thoughtful, reflective journalism, which only the Times and a few others have the resources to pursue. Thank you.
8
I think China would benefit much in dropping its support for N. Korea, with a reunited Korea, there could be lasting peace and no need for the US to keep so many troops over there. Makes sense to me!
1
I am always convinced that the purpose for the North Koreans to build nuclear bombs actually is to deter and blackmail China. Otherwise, why would they need the bombs? If they trust China, China can easily guarantee their security. There had been no trusts between China and North Korea even since the Korean war.
4
I do not think they developed nuclear bombs actually to use it. Isn't it more for getting money? Like a robber with bombs round his body. "Hey, South Korea and US, I am not telling you to give me food and money..., but I have nuclear bombs that can kill us all, and I am not sure what I am going to do if I starve."
Hope China will also realize soon that its friendship with Pakistan is a historic blunder.
The referenced "groundbreaking study" identifies a statement made by the US ("Acheson’s January 1950 speech excluding Korea from America’s defense perimeter in the western Pacific seemed to confirm Kim’s assessment. Stalin therefore agreed to meet the North Korean leader in Moscow to discuss the plans for an attack on the South") as being critically important in Stalin's decision to support North Korea's invasion. ONE ill-conceived statement by the US Secretary of State helped precipitate the Korean War.
Now consider the multitude of ill-informed, ill-considered and contradictory statements flooding out of the Trump administration. Words really do matter. Knowledge matters. Competence matters. And unfortunately we have Trump.
Now consider the multitude of ill-informed, ill-considered and contradictory statements flooding out of the Trump administration. Words really do matter. Knowledge matters. Competence matters. And unfortunately we have Trump.
3
It does seem China could ask us to decease our presence in South Korea in return for them helping us quiet North Korea. Why would we be their if North Korea is no longer a threat.
1
In addition to all of the actors involved the US citizenry has to worry about Trump starting a war to distract from the inevitable point when his tax returns and smoking gun Russian connections/treason are revealed.
2
China!
Welcome to 2017!
Welcome to 2017!
1
"...Shen’s views have incensed Chinese ultranationalists..."
It's amazing Shen hasn't yet fallen victim to an 'accident'.
Anyone who believes the Chinese politburo may lean pro-west because of Trump or any number of factors would be well advised to recall what happened in 1989 in Tiananmen Square.
It's amazing Shen hasn't yet fallen victim to an 'accident'.
Anyone who believes the Chinese politburo may lean pro-west because of Trump or any number of factors would be well advised to recall what happened in 1989 in Tiananmen Square.
6
As only Nixon could go to China so Xi Jinping is the only one that can squash Kim Jong Un. Xi should realize the situation is unstable and although he doesn't want US troops on their border he could likely extract promises from the US to stay south of the present demilitarized zone and even remove the THAAD missile defense if he could depose Un. It sounds like a win for him and China.
28
As an elder American, I say to Chinese policymakers what they very well know: Americans love China. China is our partner in global leadership.
There is no basis within the U.S. for China to consider the U.S. as a threat. The U.S. has no military interest in South Korea beyond North Korea. If China mentors North Korea—through compulsory diplomacy and compulsory modernization—into reunification with South Korea, the U.S. military would have no reason to remain in South Korea.
I know, from within the depths of America, that China has nothing to fear from the U.S. by having a border with unified Korea.
Global prosperity could be better led by greater Chinese-American partnership. That is a bipartisan sentiment in the U.S.
There is no basis within the U.S. for China to consider the U.S. as a threat. The U.S. has no military interest in South Korea beyond North Korea. If China mentors North Korea—through compulsory diplomacy and compulsory modernization—into reunification with South Korea, the U.S. military would have no reason to remain in South Korea.
I know, from within the depths of America, that China has nothing to fear from the U.S. by having a border with unified Korea.
Global prosperity could be better led by greater Chinese-American partnership. That is a bipartisan sentiment in the U.S.
66
I agree. Watching Chinese tourists in Solvang CA is interesting. They are a friendly happy lot and there are many of them. Some are relatives of Chinese students at UCSB and can be seen walking around eating ice cream while having animated discussions with their American classmates... we in CA also have a long interesting history with the Chinese people that should be allowed to grow and flower!
4
It's true that South Korea's living standards are amazingly high (about $24k per year per capita GDP) but China's are improving fast as well - in the big cities and developed provinces of China, per capita GDP is above $15k.
The point is, China has more in common now with an industrialized, modern society like South Korea - and almost nothing in common with a backwards hermit kingdom on its border. China needs to get over the "threat" of a developed and unified Korea as its neighbor
The point is, China has more in common now with an industrialized, modern society like South Korea - and almost nothing in common with a backwards hermit kingdom on its border. China needs to get over the "threat" of a developed and unified Korea as its neighbor
23
While per capita GDP is high in the tier one cities, the average for China is still very low - around $2K a year last I checked.
1
Get rid of Bad Haircut, Psychopath Chub and China would have a stable source of coal, workers to replace an aging population and Not be vulnerable to a nuclear waste cloud on the border. Samsung and KIA on the border, either China's or the 38th Parallel China free Trade Zone, would be pretty cool, no?
8
China needs neither the coal nor the workers. Some Chinese firms could use a new, cheaper labor market. As could South Korea.
3
Chinese firms could benefit from cheaper labor? Who couldn't? Answer: the legally enslaved workers.
Lets hope the Chinese see a bigger advantage in relationships with "real countries ' not maintaining a relationship with a true nut job, that would endanger the while area.
12
You're referring to trump, right?
6
No of course not.
If China has botched its policy, Trump has botched his before it started! Get this: "Aircraft Carrier Wasn’t Sailing to Deter North Korea, as U.S. Suggested"! When the pathologically lying President is caught in a lie like this, it's not just American voters who roll their eyes and sigh; foreign governments look aghast, at what an idiotic, dissembling bunch is directing our foreign policy. These false boasts may work on enough US voters to win an Electoral College victory, but when they're said to the rest of the world and proved false, our government looks like the gang [navy] that couldn't shoot [sail] straight. Sad.
66
It is not a false boast: the carrier group easily could be sent toward NK and those who need to know it do know it.
2
It won't matter. Trump figured out long ago that the average American has the attention span of a gnat.
It is high time that China, the U.S. and Russia stop feeding these ticks that are sucking them dry and operate their governments for the betterment of their respective peoples.
The military industrial mafias ruining the countries have only new shiny toys at heart, and richer retirements for generals..
The military industrial mafias ruining the countries have only new shiny toys at heart, and richer retirements for generals..
6
Materially threatening the economic and political stability in China may be the fatal mistake of the petulant brat in North Korea. Some consideration is due to President Xi. He now has two petulant brats to deal with.
24
The Chinese government's public views toward North Korea are akin to the fascist US GOP views of science and the risk of irreversible climate change: both are directed to catastrophic disaster for the health and welfare or people everywhere.
5
It's inconceivable to me that China hasn't responded to the threat posed by North Korea's actions and, thus, hasn't "bonded" with South Korea to stem the tide of North Korea's nuclear proliferation. This is in their own "backyard" and I don't understand their complacency.
6
This is a positive fresh view from inside China as to their country's own self interest in expanding relations with stable trading partners not only on their borders but around the world. There is nothing to be gained by propping up North Korea under the current unstable leadership. Let's hope this voice is not silenced by the Chinese government, but given serious consideration as a reasonable adjustment in it's foreign policy. The world would benefit.
16
I have never grasped China's policy of the DKRP providing a strategic shield for them . Maybe this could have been partially true 70 years ago when invading armies still needed to enter by sea and land . But now a single , undetectable submarine in the western Pacific ocean could decimate China's major cities and military installations within minutes .
China is playing a losing hand backing this rogue family of madmen .
China is playing a losing hand backing this rogue family of madmen .
31
Now China can do the same to your cities and major bases in the Pacific. You're welcome!
John
way to completely miss the point while unknowingly supporting it.
way to completely miss the point while unknowingly supporting it.
Shen Zhihua is correct, that is probably the best policy for China.
Nevertheless the US only reasonable stance is to maintain the pressure by asserting the fact that China created North Korea as it is, made possible all of the military developments in the North which are so problematic right now and is responsible for The North and whatever it does.
Nevertheless the US only reasonable stance is to maintain the pressure by asserting the fact that China created North Korea as it is, made possible all of the military developments in the North which are so problematic right now and is responsible for The North and whatever it does.
17
Wow! Sounds like a Trump Republican Party knockoff.
This could be an indication of a major shift in CCP policy. After all, the guy is simply being realistic.
2
One complicating aspect is that both China and Russia have a common border with the DKRP. At one time the Soviet Union was the major patron of North Korea, but as times have shifted geopolitics, China has now assumed that role. China does not want a return to Russian influence of the DKRP.
11
The problem with the Chinese and North Korea is that neither one signed a peace treaty with the United States following the armistice agreement of the Korean War. The problem is also that the United States did NOT start the Korean War either and yet, we are expected to show restraint when North Korea acts belligerent and China enables them. The issue of North Korea lies solely with North Korea and China and to a smaller extent, Russia. Tell me why again, we should continue to let this go on? We owe North Korea and China for the Korean War.
2
By declaring "an end to strategic patience", the Trump Administration has created the necessity to respond in some meaningful way if and when NK performs its next nuclear test. It is equivalent to drawing a "red line". And we know what happens when you draw a line and don't enforce it.
3
I can only believe that China will figure out that shutting down North Korea peacefully and embracing the South-directed, unified Korea is in their best tactical and strategic interests.
For China the end game is supplanting the US's role in the Western Pacific. Good, stable relations with a unified Korea could, maybe, possibly, eventually lay the basis for a trusting relationship with Japan.
When the day comes that those countries have a justified faith in China, then the old post WWII alliance system will fall apart in the Pacific. As it should... no alliance is forever, just look what happened when the Congress of Vienna (1815) fell apart.... disaster.
For China the end game is supplanting the US's role in the Western Pacific. Good, stable relations with a unified Korea could, maybe, possibly, eventually lay the basis for a trusting relationship with Japan.
When the day comes that those countries have a justified faith in China, then the old post WWII alliance system will fall apart in the Pacific. As it should... no alliance is forever, just look what happened when the Congress of Vienna (1815) fell apart.... disaster.
It's very frustrating that China on the one hand condemns the U.S. for trying to defend its allies against North Korea with anti-missile technology, and on the other refuses to really address the North Korean problem in any constructive way. If China would take more responsibility, the U.S. might not have to deploy the defensive systems that irritate the Chinese government so much. China's leaders need to put two and two together. It's good to see this influential historian has done so, and I hope his message gets through to the country's leadership.
6
Everybody has more to gain from good relations with everybody, especially when the alternative is slipping sideways into nuclear apocalypse. Adversarial language permeates the discussion: "The time for strategic patience is over; either China will solve North Korea or we will; don't risk testing our resolve."
The time for strategic patience is never over when abandonment of patience increases the risk of nuclear war. Why is it weak to ground our rhetoric in the reality that we are all in this dilemma together, rather than "us versus them" assumptions?: "Nuclear war is a disastrous outcome for all parties. None of us can fight such a war and win. We recognize North Korea's fear of being attacked and its attempt to use its nuclear weapons to deter such an attack—because our own policy is exactly the same. We seek a resolution of our conflicts which encourages the survival of all parties, North Korea, South Korea, China, and the U.S. Because deterrence is inherently unstable (you build more; we build more), it is past time for an international conference whose sole objective is to diminish nuclear tensions and eventually reduce, and even abolish, nuclear weapons."
The time for strategic patience is never over when abandonment of patience increases the risk of nuclear war. Why is it weak to ground our rhetoric in the reality that we are all in this dilemma together, rather than "us versus them" assumptions?: "Nuclear war is a disastrous outcome for all parties. None of us can fight such a war and win. We recognize North Korea's fear of being attacked and its attempt to use its nuclear weapons to deter such an attack—because our own policy is exactly the same. We seek a resolution of our conflicts which encourages the survival of all parties, North Korea, South Korea, China, and the U.S. Because deterrence is inherently unstable (you build more; we build more), it is past time for an international conference whose sole objective is to diminish nuclear tensions and eventually reduce, and even abolish, nuclear weapons."
19
Read the last paragraph where Mr. Shen is quoted. It isn't just the U.S. who sees that the "poor little NK" excuses being made for their seeking nuclear weapons is a total sham.
Lets hope that China will adopt a pragmatic approach that recognizes the long term economic benefits of helping to create a united and prosperous Korea. South Korea's development provides an example of the potential for a new more vigorous trading partner and market for Chinese goods. The alternative is to maintain the status quo and prop up a destitute country led by a small group of men who are detached from world progress and reality. How sad for those who have suffered under their leadership.
3
It will be interesting to see if Shen Zhihua's voice will be muffled or if it will create a dialogue about a new approach with N. Korea. In the last two decades China has benefited from its relationship with and support for N. Korea in that whenever it was necessary, the Kim clan became a thorn on the side of the US and Japan, when it was convenient for China. China is keeping friends in low places, just as the US has throughout its history.
7
I've always found China's conventional wisdom very odd. They don't like the DPRK very much, but they really don't like the idea of South Korea and the U.S. along their northeast border. Well, as this historian has said, South Korea could be a strong ally on a number of issues. Secondly, if the two Koreas were unified, there would not be a strong compelling reason for the U.S. to have troops and spy technology there.
42
Really?? No reason? I give you one reason: to contain China.
I figured someone would say that. I'm just thinking China should see an opening to negotiate. And realistically, any country in China's shadow needs to be ready to defend themselves if they don't want to become a mere tributary state to the Middle Kingdom.
1
Trump seems to be using his penchant for simple, continuously repeated remarks to good effect in placing significant responsibility for North Korea on China.
Hopefully the Chinese will get the message and act on it. This article seems to indicate that the Chinese leadership might be reconsidering its approach to North Korea since Shen's lectures are being repeated without official interference.
Hopefully the Chinese will get the message and act on it. This article seems to indicate that the Chinese leadership might be reconsidering its approach to North Korea since Shen's lectures are being repeated without official interference.
2
Hopefully these views presage a new American/Chinese initiative to leverage diplomacy, not war, with North Korea. War would be a very bad idea, roiling the whole peninsula and beyond.
3
China and North Korea are alike in ideology and government. Both countries are reliant on a national identity that is manifested by its leadership. They are both driven by a quest for state power, which stays within the party or family. Those who present challenging views are opposition to be silenced or jailed. Dr. Shen is tolerated because Party central is under pressure on the North Korean issue, not because there is a new day of press freedom in China.
1
China and NK are not alike. The Central Committee is powerful in China, but even they don't try to rule everything, there is a huge private sector, and people live their lives in an advanced, modern society (they have Netflix and watch House of Cards). North Korea is a throwback cult-of-personality regime.
It's probably not advisable or prudent but hordes People Liberation Army soldiers
crossing the Yalu today would certainly get a very different response in the US than in 1951.
crossing the Yalu today would certainly get a very different response in the US than in 1951.
3
Hordes? Really.
One hopes a difference would be KNOWING the "hordes" were crossing the Yalu and the Americans facing them would not be draftees without even basic training and no winter clothing in a cold winter. That would be different.
One hopes a difference would be KNOWING the "hordes" were crossing the Yalu and the Americans facing them would not be draftees without even basic training and no winter clothing in a cold winter. That would be different.
When my Dad told me as a kid that Macarthur was maybe the most disliked General in the Army in WWII I learned why. He threw away thousands of American lives in two wars for his ego and vanity. A lesson to be learned.
2
China could learn from USA/Canada relations to see how Korea is not a threat. The threat to China is a collapsing North Korea and a concerned South Korea seeking US military protection. An unified Korea would be a huge market for China construction companies to rebuild the North.
Thank goodness Chinese foreign policy experts are beginning to sense the dangers of inaction. With nukes, the psychopathic leadership of North Korea will be in a position to bully and intimidate China itself. History tells us that negotiating with maniacal and desperate dictators is fruitless. Time is of the essence, the world needs to step up and remedy this extremely dangerous situation. The world needs China's help, NOW!
3
It is unwise and unsafe to allowed Pyongyang to continue on the present path of nuclear arm as its not in the interest of global peace as the regime remains the axis and focus of evil on the Korean peninsula and a threat to world peace.
As a Shanghainese, I can confirm that quite a few of us in the more liberal cities have been highly skeptical of the relationship with NK, if not outright unhappy with it. I for one would love to see this thorn in side removed. I don't even care about Thaad, which the PLA may be able to deal with with their more advanced ICBMs anyway, but crazy nuts Kim III with his fingers on buttons that would shoot warheads at pretty much any neighbors? No thank you.
30
Hail fellow Shanghainese!
It's not unlikely. Western analysts have always exaggerated China's supposed friendship/control over the North. This is a position only held by aging party cadres, whose influence has waned over the decades. The truth is like Beijing wants the North to reform into a, authoritarian capitalist society aligned with China, similar to Vietnam but more friendly. That the US poses a greater threat to China than North Korea is not a traditionalist view, it is a mainstream one.
America, fully ignorant of East Asian relations and eager for a quick fix, wants China to do something that will ruin our relations with the North forever. They want Beijing to force Kim's hand, cut off aid, starve them into submission if necessary. That is your way, and it is an inferior way. China and North Korea are neighbors who have to live next to each other. American interventionism in Asia has caused more divides on top of traditional Asian rivalries. We don't need another.
Kim's bluster is nothing new. It is just another episode in decades of attention-seeking, and does not warrant this alarmist response from the US. For his part, Trump should turn his focus back towards the leftist problem festering inside his own country, and let Asians deal with Asian affairs.
America, fully ignorant of East Asian relations and eager for a quick fix, wants China to do something that will ruin our relations with the North forever. They want Beijing to force Kim's hand, cut off aid, starve them into submission if necessary. That is your way, and it is an inferior way. China and North Korea are neighbors who have to live next to each other. American interventionism in Asia has caused more divides on top of traditional Asian rivalries. We don't need another.
Kim's bluster is nothing new. It is just another episode in decades of attention-seeking, and does not warrant this alarmist response from the US. For his part, Trump should turn his focus back towards the leftist problem festering inside his own country, and let Asians deal with Asian affairs.
4
No.
Sane Americans have a simple rule.
North Korea will be terminated before it has nuclear armed ICBMs.And the US has the unilateral power to do so and has had since 1950. Something sophisticated East Asians apparently don't grasp from the cozy China comfort in Pax Americana. Tick tick tick.
Tout that.
Sane Americans have a simple rule.
North Korea will be terminated before it has nuclear armed ICBMs.And the US has the unilateral power to do so and has had since 1950. Something sophisticated East Asians apparently don't grasp from the cozy China comfort in Pax Americana. Tick tick tick.
Tout that.
China should topple the NK leadership, ideally buying them off, but removing them in any case. If the US or SK try to do this, the result is war, but China could play the bad cop. Then China should turn the country over to SK management, with East Germany as a model. Have the SK government immediately start paying the NK military's paychecks, giving them all raises, and using them to remove weapons and the nuclear infrastructure, and to bring in emergency supplies.
China could muck this up badly by claiming NK territory. China would have to guarantee the new Korea's territorial sovereignty, but would gain a much more stable neighborhood with decreased US presence. The US gets a huge problem solved, and lower costs. The Koreans get unification. And then everyone owes China a favor.
The US could remove the THAADs, and the NK territory could stay demilitarized for 20 years. Then the US presence could greatly decrease.
China could muck this up badly by claiming NK territory. China would have to guarantee the new Korea's territorial sovereignty, but would gain a much more stable neighborhood with decreased US presence. The US gets a huge problem solved, and lower costs. The Koreans get unification. And then everyone owes China a favor.
The US could remove the THAADs, and the NK territory could stay demilitarized for 20 years. Then the US presence could greatly decrease.
Neville Chamberlain was not clever enough to call his appeasement "strategic patience", but they are one in the same. Look what that got Britain a year or so down the line. Get the picture?
1
0f course China wants to keep close ties to NK. Who else is going to buy their missile parts and advanced guidance systems? Debris collected from the failed launches show that NK's missiles are largely composed of Chinese manufactured parts. I'm sure that they find it hysterically funny to be selling us our iphone parts, Drump's hats, and then guidance systems to North Korea.
3
I supposed it is just coincidence that China is getting piling on the pressure against N.Korea just as Trump is upping his rhetoric?
Highly unlikely.
Highly unlikely.
3
I submit, that in China, policy is tested by intermediaries, not unlike ourselves, except more so there...
I recall, somehow, in China, that a choice of medieval opera, in contemporary re-release, was encoded new policy (something about fallibility of leaders) , although you probably have to have liner notes to understand as an outsider,
but the locals understand very well
=
Oh dear Donald talks and the Chinese find new friends on the peninsula, I think the Chinese think that war is destabilizing to stock markets, and ex communists or current ones, make the best capitalists.
Oh well, he still has not released his tax returns, stay focused on what is really important
=
Once we said 'only Nixon could go to China'
Now Donald did not even have to, the mountain came to Mohamed (oops)
I recall, somehow, in China, that a choice of medieval opera, in contemporary re-release, was encoded new policy (something about fallibility of leaders) , although you probably have to have liner notes to understand as an outsider,
but the locals understand very well
=
Oh dear Donald talks and the Chinese find new friends on the peninsula, I think the Chinese think that war is destabilizing to stock markets, and ex communists or current ones, make the best capitalists.
Oh well, he still has not released his tax returns, stay focused on what is really important
=
Once we said 'only Nixon could go to China'
Now Donald did not even have to, the mountain came to Mohamed (oops)
China and South Korea together would be quite the economic powerhouses. Kind of scary how powerful they might become if working together.
North Korea does nothing for China except nuclear fallout. Any explosion sends more of that.
China's path lies with South Korea. NK is going to nuke someone and really mess China up.
As for the US, NK keeps threatening to nuke the US so a response must be made.
North Korea does nothing for China except nuclear fallout. Any explosion sends more of that.
China's path lies with South Korea. NK is going to nuke someone and really mess China up.
As for the US, NK keeps threatening to nuke the US so a response must be made.
Stu: largely true observations; but unfortunately rather naïve to believe that we (or the world) can simply ignore Kim - he refuses to be ignored. There was once an infamous Austrian corporal who also refused to be ignored until he'd re-armed his country and became to powerful to be appeased any longer
1
China does seem to be positioning themselves to get North Korea under control. The elephant in the room of course is that President Trump's messages (you take care of NK or we will, MOAB, and Syrian Tomahawks) may be having the intended effect. Thanks for publishing that Chinese press and (apparently) academics are communicating this apparent new Chinese direction to the Chinese population. The NYT is doing its part to communicate to the American population. Gosh, what a coincidence that NK had no nuclear or ICBM tests this week! While there is no way NK planned to fizzle their missile test, the result did avoid tensions, while minimizing the egg splatter on Kim's face.
All China has to do is to ask for all its equipment back so the next North Korean parade will consist of a few bottle rockets transported in wheelbarrows.
Seriously, just cut off all trade, food and other materials that North Korea depends on and after a few days of starvation the people will deliver the Great Pillsbury Dough Boy's head on a platter.
Seriously, just cut off all trade, food and other materials that North Korea depends on and after a few days of starvation the people will deliver the Great Pillsbury Dough Boy's head on a platter.
1
Well, when your country (China) has actually displaced Japan as the most disliked nation among individuals polled in South Korea that's really something. In the last couple of years, all of the goodwill built up between China and South Korea since the establishment of diplomatic relations 25 years ago in 1992 has been wiped out. And it has been ALL China's fault, this falling out between Seoul and Beijing. When the now disgraced ex-South Korean president Park took office in Feb. 2013, she was set to roll out the red carpet for China in a big way.
But China under Xi Jinping has blown the opportunity by refusing to distance itself from North Korea. For South Koreans, courting China was never about becoming a lackey of Beijing and just happily accepting erratic moves by Kim Jong Un. It was about balancing between China and Japan. China's leaders ignored this crucial distinction and just thought they could have their cake and eat it too, making the two diametrically opposed Korean states into de facto vassals of China like in the days of the Ming and Qing Dynasties. Won't happen, not in the 21st century. For China, embracing South Korea will mean having to tell North Korea to reform itself or take a hike.
Ideologically, North Korea today is as radical as China was 50 years ago during the height of Cultural Revolution madness under Mao Zedong. China, having changed a great deal, must encourage North Korea to do the same.
But China under Xi Jinping has blown the opportunity by refusing to distance itself from North Korea. For South Koreans, courting China was never about becoming a lackey of Beijing and just happily accepting erratic moves by Kim Jong Un. It was about balancing between China and Japan. China's leaders ignored this crucial distinction and just thought they could have their cake and eat it too, making the two diametrically opposed Korean states into de facto vassals of China like in the days of the Ming and Qing Dynasties. Won't happen, not in the 21st century. For China, embracing South Korea will mean having to tell North Korea to reform itself or take a hike.
Ideologically, North Korea today is as radical as China was 50 years ago during the height of Cultural Revolution madness under Mao Zedong. China, having changed a great deal, must encourage North Korea to do the same.
48
China also developed nuclear weapons to make that change happen. Should it encourage North Korea to do the same?
The same for Korea in China!
totally agree.
President Xi would do well to keep both Kim and The Donald at arm's length. They're actually two of a kind: belligerent blowhards just spoiling for a fight (using other people's children, needless to say). Personally, I'd like to see the Chinese quietly reach out to some of Kim's generals and ascertain whether any of them (preferably more than just one) are willing to put a bullet in Kim's head in exchange for guarantees of support from Beijing (and possibly even Washington). Alternatively, the best thing he- and we- can do is to simply ignore Krazy Kim and hope he isn't quite crazy enough to launch a missile at one of his neighbors and watch his country transformed into radioactive dust within five minutes.
57
"... ignore Krazy Kim and hope he isn't quite crazy enough to launch a missile at one of his neighbors" World history is strewn with cases in which such hopes were woefully misplaced.
18
I've been thinking the same thing about Kim and the General's for at least five years now. Thank you for articulating your thoughts so well.
Good points, but the issue with a military coup is that you replace one megalomaniac with another. I'd just prefer China step in and take over North Korea at this point... I'm a bit concerned how far out of control this could get in the near term with Kim and Trump at the helm.
1
Mr. Shen is making an obvious point. There is little that China gains by maintaining a tight relationship with an increasingly bizarre North Korea other than preventing North Korea from destabilizing the whole region. From an economic point of view China has more to gain from good relations with South Korea.
99
The real reason China supports North Korea is not because of economics it is because they don't want the western influence reaching their borders. It is basically like a buffer state for them to keep the US away.
It's now a century since that "war to end all wars" but we are all even more vulnerable. Who knew how much fear an imaginary armada could generate? Sadly we haven't made much progress since that conference is Versailles in 1919.