Baseball Is Having a Power Surge, but Nobody Knows Why

Sep 23, 2016 · 126 comments
Steve Fankuchen (Oakland, CA)
It is irresponsible for Benjamin Hoffman to write, "None of the current players cited above, except for Ortiz, has been linked to performance-enhancing drugs."

What in the name of all the journalism gods hold holy does "linked" mean, other than gossip, rumor, and innuendo? Such has no place in a Times article, especially when it casts strong aspersions on a particular individual. That is what you expect from supermarket tabloids, not (I hope!) the Times.

I don't know for a fact whether or not Ortiz, or any other player who has not admitted to doing so or has not contested a positive test, has been doing banned P.E.D.s. The point, though, is that neither does Hoffman. Sleazy gossip does not befit the Times.
Teacher (Massachusetts)
Sloppy reporting that looks like an attempt to smear Ortiz in his final year. Why didn't this article come out when the Yankees had a prayer of going to the playoffs? I know it hurts, but sometimes your team just sucks.

Merely throwing out that Ortiz tested positive in 2003 without context - how many other players tested positive whose names were NOT revealed, the fact that the Yankees were pretty much the doping nexus of the league and running a pharmacy out of their trainer's office - is not journalism.

In a tense political year, this kind of thing lends credence to the allegations of all those yahoos who say you're a biased NY homer outfit. Please, please - be above reproach.

FWIW, I don't understand all the hoopla about doping anyway. I don't hear people up in arms about actors getting plastic surgery or going on extreme diets to gain or lose weight and muscle. What if Hugh Jackman juiced to get ripped for "Wolverine"? I DO NOT think he did, but would you care? If you don't care about that, then you should ask yourself why you care about this.
Darryl (North Carolina)
All of these scientific theories and strike zone commentaries are laughable. There are only 3 reasons why baseballs are flying out of the park at this rate by players who in the past were hitting doubles and warning track fly balls:
1. Players are still doping, not worrying about the 60 game suspension.
2. More and more ball parks have moved in their fences to accommodate not only their own players, but their opponents as well.
3. Regardless of what anyone says, baseballs are clearly juiced.
tom (ct)
I wonder how many of the 25++ HR hitters are using adderol or some other doctor-recommended drug.
Steve Fankuchen (Oakland, CA)
If all it took were steroids to produce home runs, there would have been a hundred guys hitting 70+, not just Bonds. He hit them, others didn't.

I have this fantasy of Bonds holding a press conference and saying, "If it weren't for Clemens and all those other pitchers on steroids, I would have hit 80 homers." That's a level playing field.

That said, it is entirely irresponsible for Benjamin Hoffman to write, "None of the current players cited above, except for Ortiz, has been linked to performance-enhancing drugs."

What in the name of all the journalism gods hold holy does "linked" mean, other than gossip, rumor, and innuendo? Such has no place in a news article, especially when it casts strong aspersions on a particular individual. That is what you expect from supermarket tabloids, not (I hope!) the Times.

I don't know for a fact whether or not Ortiz or any other player who has not admitted to doing so or has not contested a positive test has been doing banned P.E.D.s. The point, though, is that neither does Hoffman. Sleazy gossip does not befit the Times.
Bob Garcia (Miami)
The headline can't be right -- "nobody knows why" -- since one or more of these explanations must be right. What they should have said is nobody knows which explanation is correct.
Jgbrlb (Florida)
Pitchers are supplying the power that batters need to drive the ball out of the park with their 95-100mph fastballs. Every scout, it seems, is in love with the radar gun. And strikeouts have also increased in alarming fashion. So to me, it's either swing for the fences or swing and miss.
wkblewett (bel air, md)
A second trend, one less noticeable, perhaps has some relevance. In the last two or three seasons, pitchers have been more frequently using the four-seam fastball as an out pitch— as an effective, easy to command swing-and-a-miss pitch. For a four-seamer to generate a whiff it must be thrown as Satchel Paige threw it, releasing it with a high-speed flip of the wrist that generates a high rate of backspin and deceives the batter about its velocity. It is, in essence, a reverse changeup, and the batter swings late. But when the pitcher’s over-worked flexor muscles of the forearm become fatigued, they produce less power, and the speed of the wrist flexion diminishes. Consequently, the pitch becomes very easy to hit squarely.
Mark Nemes (St. Louis, MO)
Batters are changing the way they approach the plate. Baseball today is pitcher dominated so batters are swinging for the fences every chance they get.
Drew (Indianapolis, IN)
This is unresearched grasping for straws – but might record warmth through the duration of this summer combined with batter strategy produce an increased number of home runs? I believe objects travel further through warmer and/or more humid air.
RIchard Pershan (Hamden Connecticut)
Global warming is another factor. Hotter overall temperatures prevail throughout the league (and world). Track HRs with temp and you'll see a connection.
mike (alexandria, nj)
You hit the nail on the head when you wrote that baseball is moving away from slap hitters towards all or nothing. 30 years ago and farther back, you couldn't hit .217 and be an everyday player. you can today so long as you are a threat to hit 30 HR's. But my biggest pet peeve and the main reason for the rise of HR, is the movement away from the wile starter who KNOWS how to pitch and get guys out (working corners, up, down, inside, out, changing speeds) towards the hard throwing relief guys who just throw fastballs. David Cone said it best and I heard Vin Scully allude to it, that the pitch count has caused pitchers to NOT learn how to get out of jams. A guy pitchers 5 shutout innings, throws 90 pitches, leads off the 6th with a double and a walk and he's gone. A hard throwing relief guy comes in and when the games over they've used 4 pitchers, given up 3-4 HR's and lost 7-5. I watch every single Yankee game played, plus other teams and that is what I consistently see.
Andy F. (OH)
Whether increased PED use is part of the reason for increased homers, I don't know. But I would seriously question Manfred's assertion that MLB conducts 22,000 drug test each year. There are less than 1000 major league players, so that would be more than 22 test per person per season. No way is that happening.
Beartooth Bronsky (Jacksonville, FL)
The fact that essentially the same team lineups hit a recent record low number of home runs in 2014 are now hitting a record high numbers this year kind of argues against doping. Why would nobody be doping in 2014 and everybody be doping in 2016? The stakes for the players and teams are still the same. Why do we always assume that drugs are the reason? Why did pitchers keep the average down to 0.86 two years ago and are now giving up 1.17 this year. Did the pitchers STOP doping?

It could just be a statistical outlier year. If you flip a coin ten times, the law of averages says you should get approximately 5 heads and 5 tails and you will usually come in pretty close to the average. Yet, if you flip that coin 1,000 times, you will find portions of the run where you get 10 or 20 or more heads or tails in a row. Statistical outliers just happen. One year, players hit 0.86 homers per game, another year, they hit 1.17 a game. They may well just be outliers of the mean number of homers hit per game over a hundred years.

Maybe teams have become more adept at stealing catchers' signs and the hitters have a better idea what pitch to expect.

Maybe modern infield and outfield shifts are convincing batters to swing for the fences instead of getting caught by more effective positional shifts.

Maybe they ARE doping, but have a new masking drug?

Maybe there has been a change in the manufacture of balls or bats that has affected the hitters' ability to hit for distance.
James Demers (Brooklyn)
I'd like to know what's going down as the number of homers goes up. Fewer strike-outs? Fewer ground balls? The effect of PEDs would be to convert what would have been fly-outs into home runs - something that should be easy to spot in the statistics.
Diane (<br/>)
The most significant difference is that hitting theory has changed dramatically. Massive data that theMLB produces has shown that elevated balls are far more productive than ground balls. Hitters are now taught to acheive a swing plane that is slightly upward, intersecting pitchers ball flight that is slightly downward. Training for rotational power and a ground up kinetic chain improves explosiveness and biomechanical efficiency. As a result, more players are hitting more balls out.
Steve (New York)
I'd still lean toward the doping theory. Despite the NFL's drug policy, players keep getting bigger and stronger and there is no way this is from natural doings.
The individual numbers may not match the highs of Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa but this might be attributed to the change in the way relief pitchers are used. With all the hard throwing relievers in the game each of whom pretty much pitch one inning, players probably have a lot less chance of hitting homes after the starters are gone. It would be interesting to know if there is a decline in homers against relief pitchers.
Daniel (Wallingford, CT)
Importantly, a select group of hitters are not smacking absurdly high levels of home runs. As noted in the article, no player this year will likely hit over 50. The the 90's Orioles lead-off man Brady Anderson hit 50, for example, which was and is absurd. Instead, home run numbers are high for a larger group of players, but no select group is putting up comic book numbers. This seems to point to the notion that players are changing their approach at the plate.

Too bad, I personally like the Ichiro style slap hits/adventures on the base-paths.
MGerard (Bethesda, MD)
Despite the number of home runs, there are still almost empty stands because baseball is so slow---a cure for insomnia for most.
bobg (Norwalk, CT)
Home runs are up. And so our strikeouts. For this old geezer, that doesn't result in a more exciting game. Case in point is the Mets. If they homer, they score. They are uncannily bad at scoring by any other means. And I refer not only to the passing of the stolen base, hit and run, and squeeze play--all exciting/interesting plays. Just stringing together a couple of hits in the same inning has became a rarity. Games where the offense is home run or bust with a dozen strikeouts per team are just not that compelling.

This year there isn't a single MLB player who has more walks than strikeouts. Ortiz is very close--he "only" strikes out about once in every six at-bats. Chris Davis has 38 homers. That's nice. He's also been struck out over 200 times in 550 at-bats. Is that fun to watch? If you look at the best all-time hitters, they all have more BB's than K's--even power hitters.

Tris Speaker reigns supreme--220 K's in 10,195 at-bats (+/- 1 in 50 at-bats, or one strikeout every twelve games or so). Not a misprint. He also hit 222 triples to go with his 119 (dead-ball) homers and an all-time leading 792 doubles.

I wonder when we'll see another player with more triples than strikeouts.
John (Denver)
I have a feeling that we're back to the steroid era where these guys are marinated in the stuff.
Jay (Bonita Springs, FL)
The power surge is the product of the way the pitching staff management has evolved. Every manager expects to get 100 pitches out of his starter and the long reliever is a thing of the past. If a pitcher is getting hammered early in a game, the manager has to keep him in way too long because the "middle relief" guys can rarely go more than two innings. Example: The other night the Yankees starter gave up four home runs to the Rays. Thirty years ago even a future Hall of Famer would have been yanked after the second homer with the manager concluding that he just didn't have his stuff that night.
Denis (Brussels)
When I moved to live in the US, baseball was one of my great discoveries. I'd heard of it, seen the world series highlights, but never really got into it. Then suddenly I was in Madison, Wisconsin, listening to Brewers games on the radio while working in the lab (Bob Uecker and Pat Hughes - fantastic commentators!) and fascinated by all the strategy, tactical intricacies and subtleties.
I remember thinking how in this game of skill and strategy, the home run seemed totally out of place - as if someone like Donald Trump had decided that baseball was too intellectual for the masses, and had added in home runs to add some low-brow excitement. I'm not saying it's easy to hit a home run - just that it is one act of brute-force in a game which is mostly about craft and technique.
A bit like the big heavyweight boxer who doesn't have the same skill or talent as his opponents, but sometimes manages a one-blow knockout.

I also think tv plays into this - the sports equivalent of the soundbite is the 5-second highlight video, showing the dunk or the home run, but not having time to show the much more interesting scores, where a team is one down in the ninth, and manages to tie the game with a hard-earned walk, a stolen base by a pinch-runner, a sacrifice bunt and a run-scoring fly-ball. It doesn't make for highlights, but it is what baseball is all about.

You used the word "nadir" to describe the seasons with few home runs - but the opposite is true - those are the great years!
DS (Miami)
The important question is, does anybody really care?
PogoWasRight (florida)
I do not accept that "nobody knows why".....based on past performances in "professional" sports and yes, even college and and lower sports, the simple explanation is probably PEDs. Just think for a moment and whose names come to mind? And I suspect there are now many PEDs available which are not detectable. Cloaking such use makes no sense....it is not magic or some unknown secret....grow up.
Steve Fankuchen (Oakland, CA)
It is irresponsible for Benjamin Hoffman to write, "None of the current players cited above, except for Ortiz, has been linked to performance-enhancing drugs."

What in the name of all the journalism gods hold holy does "linked" mean, other than gossip, rumor, and innuendo? Such has no place in a news article, especially when it casts strong aspersions on a particular individual. That is what you expect from supermarket tabloids, not (I hope!) the Times.

I don't know for a fact whether or not Ortiz or any other player who has not admitted to doing so or has not contested a positive test has been doing banned P.E.D.s. The point, though, is that neither does Hoffman. Sleazy gossip does not befit the Times.

If all it took were steroids to produce home runs, there would have been a hundred guys hitting 70+, not just Bonds. He hit them, others didn't.

I have this fantasy of Bonds holding a press conference and saying, "If it weren't for Clemens and all those other pitchers on steroids, I would have hit 80 homers."
mccreedy (tucson)
could it be related to the increase in defensive shifts being used against batters? Batters are responding by swinging for flyballs?
abo (Paris)
Both Ortiz and Sanchez are prime suspects for doping.
Sandman (New York, NY)
Ortiz has been linked to doping, but Sanchez has not. Sanchez is a talented player with amazing balance at the plate, stellar bat speed, and a great pair of eyes. All quite visible to those who know baseball and aren't simply judging him for his Dominican nationality.
Mark (Middletown, CT)
What evidence is there that Sanchez is doping?
Jay (NY)
Really because only one has ever failed a test before
Steve Fankuchen (Oakland, CA)
If all it took were steroids to produce home runs, there would have been a hundred guys hitting 70, not just Bonds. He hit them, others didn't.

I have this fantasy of Bonds holding a press conference and saying, "If it weren't for Clemens and all those other pitchers on steroids, I would have hit 80 homers."
Nick (Minneapolis)
My theory about the record number of home runs is that batters have begun to figure out modern pitching, with its faster speeds, focus on location, and variety of breaking pitches. I will simplistically divide pitches into two types: unhittable and mistakes. Batters have gotten better at recognizing and taking advantage of the mistakes. When a breaking pitch hangs, it gets hit most of the time and hit hard. The corollary to this suggestion is that pitchers become great when they don't make mistakes. It's also possible that pitchers were able to profitably use the new microstatistics like ball rotation, swing angle and exit velocity before batters, for whatever reason. Maybe batters are now incorporating that information into their swings and regaining some of the ground they lost to pitchers over the last decade.
Michael (Hawaii)
The headline should read "Nobody WANTS to know why" Well duh. Just as sprinters, bicyclists, swimmers, and the entire Russian olympic team, the power hitters (Papi included) have figured out how to cheat the testing system. And MLB, like the IOC, really doesn't care. And at this point, I don't care either.
John (Denver)
I'm with you. After 2000, my enthusiasm for the game almost disappeared. I'm still amazed that Babe Ruth could hit 60 home runs even though he was fat and out of shape, ate as much crap as he could cram into his body every day, and carouse, drink and womanize every night. One wonders what he could have done if he was actually in shape, but not juicing his system with performance-enhancing drugs.

I'm a classical musician, and when soloists discovered that tape-splicing could eliminate all their mistakes, one of these fakes was sitting in the recording studio exulting over his edited performance. "Isn't that great?" he said. "Yup" said the recording engineer. "Don't you wish you could play that way?"

Major league baseball, if you really want to go in this direction, do it without me. But maybe consider closing the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Michael S. Greenberg, Ph.D. (Florida)
Maybe the answer is "all of the above" for the HR increase. As an odd man out, I believe that there is plenty of good pitching around today. Anybody hit Chapman, Kershaw, etc.? When juicing was in its prime Griffey Jr. was hitting 56 HRs per season, and nobody noticed him. This season no hitter is coming close to those numbers-60 and 70. This argues against widespread doping, particularly since the players today are bigger and stronger than they were during the McGwire/Bonds/Sosa era. In sum, perhaps it is a perfect storm of events leading to the inflated number of taters-just one man's thoughts.
PogoWasRight (florida)
Perfection? In baseball? C'mon...........
Kevin (Northport NY)
We all know that the big home run hitters are supposed to strike out a lot. But Barry Bonds hardly ever struck out, Drugs did not help him at all to have the most perfect eyes in baseball.
Dan (New York)
The answer is most likely steroids, based on baseball's history with the drugs. Who cares? Why is Lasik acceptable but steroids are not? Why should players be allowed to use caffeine but not steroids?
Steve (New York)
There is an important difference. Lasik surgery and caffeine are perfectly legal. Anabolic steroids are only legal for a few very specific physical conditions none of which involve improving athletic performance.
Players who obtain steroids are breaking the law. Perhaps you believe that the laws of this country shouldn't apply to athletes.
Alan Behr (New York City)
This article raises the familiar question: would baseball be baseball without statistics? You do not need a college degree to play baseball, but you need one to figure out how much you are statistically enjoying it.
Doug Terry2016 (Maryland)

Have you considered global warming?

Just kidding.

Of course, global warming is an important subject, not really fit for joking (except that everything in human life is fit for joking, just about). But, seriously, I wonder if anyone has checked the average temperature at game time and correlated that with home runs. We know that warmer air is thinner and that balls will travel farther in such conditions. That plus a willingness to "swing for the fences" (and be struck out more often) might explain things.
Steve Sailer (America)
Actually, offensive production during the 1992 baseball season may have been depressed by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo on the other side of the world pumping ash into the atmosphere, which kept the summer of 1992 cool in much of the United States.
Wendy (Chicago)
The 2014 and 2015 Royals were so much fun to watch, because their approach was the opposite of the all-or-nothing, swing for the fences or strike out style of playing that characterizes most contemporary teams - a style that's made baseball pretty boring.
I've been a Tigers fan since the age of six, but was looking forward to another great year for the Royals, because I just loved watching them play.
They sure made baseball fun for a couple of seasons! Hope they can get back to it.
Tim Brown (England)
I, too, miss 'small ball', and I am a Mets fan. Unfortunately, I do not approve of the 'homer or nothing' mentality which, I believe has adversely affected Conforto's swing. The number of strikeouts is appalling. I was discussing this with my brother, and he sent me the following stats:
1959--5 batters had 100 strikeouts led by Micky Mantle with 126
1966--24 batters struck out 100 or more times, led by George Scott with 152
1975--20 players led by Schmitty with 180
1986--38 players led by Pete Incaviglia with 185
1993--42 players led by Rob Deer with 169
2003--59 players led by Jim Thome with 182

2015--116 players led by Chris Davis with 208. Mantle would have ranked 53rd in the league.
Enough said.
AMR (Emeryville, CA)
Small differences in umpiring balls and strikes can lead to large changes in home runs. Just saying: MLB operates as one big enterprise, exempt from anti-trust law. Umpires are instructed by MLB, and are graded as well. The process for instructing and grading umpires is, as far as I know, private. If the overall enterprise, MLB wants more home runs, that outcome can be encouraged. MLB hires and controls umpires.

It looks like more home runs this year come on the first pitch than on any other. This is a clue. Pitchers usually try to make first pitch strikes. If the corner pitches are not going to be called strikes, then first pitches will be "fatter", and that means more home runs.
Kiernan Majerus-Collins (West Hartford, Connecticut)
David Oritz has never been proven to use performance-enhancing drugs. The only accusation with any credibility dates from 2003, for which there were legitimate explanations. In the years since then, Ortiz, like every star player, has been tested over and over and over. Not once has he ever failed. I hope that means he's played the game the right way; he's been my favorite player since I was eight years old, and is a hero to so many Red Sox fans of my generation. It's thrilling to see him go out with such a great season, and my fingers are crossed that he has a shot at the MVP award, and a fourth World Series title.
Michaelira (New Jersey)
Lance Armstrong never failed a drug test, either. Your hero is either not human or he is a druggy. Not believing in aliens among us or fairy tales, I'll stick with the druggy option, which makes by far the most sense. Meanwhile enjoy the fantasy.
VJR (North America)
I don't know how much of an impact this has, but technological advancements lead to players having better feedback on their hitting. Years ago, old timers and hitting coaches would give advice to players based on those mentors seeing the player in action. However, now, players can be recorded with their movements analyzed and they can more effectively see where they need improvement and then work on it. Of course, this also could provide increased confidence and thus, as the article describes, lead to more at-bats where the batter is interested more in the HR than a single or a double.
facej (in tucson)
HD video of every home run hit is certainly an excellent training tool. Hitters know what the pitch was, what it looked like, plus all the nuance of the actual hit. I blame high tech and hard work.
Ken L (Houston)
I miss the stolen base, and the hit and run that was still around in the mid 1980's, before Tony LaRussa ruined baseball with his steroid enhanced Oakland A's teams of the later 1980s-early 1990s.

Like R. Wayne has said, I really don't watch baseball too much anymore, because the hitting approach is almost like a beer gut softball league.
Steve (New York)
Considering the vast sums of money even lousy teams make and cities and states falling over each other to give free stadiums and tax breaks to billionaire owners, I doubt those owners and players really give a damn about whether you watch or not.
Paul (Bellerose Terrace)
Got anything more than speculation?
Manfred citing a juiced ball scandal costing the Japanese commissioner is too cute by half. Former used car salesman Bud Selig presided over the game for a quarter century during which time skinny rookies Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens got huge. Not only in musculuture, but their HEADS looked inflated, too. Anybody (other than the fans) work on pushing Selig out? No, the commissioner serves at the pkeasure of the owners. From Babe Ruth, through Bonds, McGwire and Sosa, home runs sell. Evidently now, too. Hoffman takes Rob Manfred at face value, which makes me nostalgic for old school journalustic skepticism. You know, the kind in which an editor tells his reporter: "Your mother says she loves you. Check it out."
The Mets announcers were talking about it tonight. Darling said:" balls that were dying on the track two years ago are flying out." The air at Citi field hasn't changed. It's the balls. Last night Anthony Recker hit an oppo laser last night to start a Mets collapse, the first oppo homer he has EVER hit. It was a line drive that carried over the 380 sign. It's the balls.
Tombo (New York State)
Yes, what could it be that is causing this home run explosion in MLB? What a mystery. Something like this has never happened before.

What a sick joke and what a scam, yet again, being pulled off by MLB. They are as dirty as pro wrestling.
Michjas (Phoenix)
Sports Illustrated recently addressed this subject and solved the so-called mystery. Pitchers, particularly relievers, are steadily increasing their pitch speed. In response, batters are adjusting their swings to increase their exit velocity. SI specifically discussed Jake Lamb, who worked with his hitting coach to increase his exit velocity and, for the first time, became a power hitter. The theory behind this is that contact hitting is overrated since fielding statistics reveal that light contact doesn't get you on base. Hitting ithard is the new statistical goal, and it seems to be working.
Majortrout (Montreal)
Does Major League Baseball do random blood-testing in 2016?
jkj (pennsylvania USA)
If you use steroids, you are a fake and a cheater! Plain and simple! Arod, McGuire, Sosa, and ALL like them are fakes and cheaters and should never be allowed on the field, in the record books, or in hall of fame, or allowed to visit it, with greats like Schmidt, Rose, Mays, Ruth, Carlton, etc. Do it honest or go to jail. By the way, Pete Rose Charlie Hustle belongs in the Hall of Fame because others are in there that have used drugs, wife beaters, murder, boozers, etc. Guess it's okay to do anything other than cheat on baseball and get into the hall of fame, but cheating on baseball is not okay. Double standard.
OldGuyWhoKnowsStuff (Hogwarts)
Pete Rose. Like saying Falstaff should be lauded as one of Shakespeare's great heroic characters. But you left the two worst off the cheaters list: Bonds and Clemens. The greatest hitter and the greatest pitcher PEDs ever produced.
Steve (New York)
In every clubhouse in professional baseball, there is always one rule listed. It isn't don't use drugs or don't beat up wives or girlfriends. It's don't bet on games.
Mark (Redondo Beach, CA)
It's lousy pitching. And an abundance of it. Not to mention the inside has been taken away from the pitchers lest a brawl ensue or you get warned. Seems the only place to go is right down the middle and hope for the best!
OldGuyWhoKnowsStuff (Hogwarts)
You ignore the obvious. Perhaps you don't listen to pitching commentators discuss pitching these days. Pitchers throw much, much harder. Many more pitchers rely on variations in speed than ever in the past. (That wasn't even talked about when I was a young ran 30 to50years ago). The curve is no longer, by itself, a weapon; everybody in the majors can hit the curve so well that a Bert Blyleven would have a short career now. The cut fastball is an altogether new pitch (an advancement on the split-finger fastball that made Elroy Face famous in the '60 World Series).

But hitters are bigger, faster, better-conditioned and better trained, too. I watch the Little League World Series (as do major-league scouts and players). Never, when I played Little League, would one find any players at that level with the skills these kids have now. They field better than the Yankees of the '50s and '60s.

Pitching is vastly, vastly, vastly better in another way, as exhibited by a recent example: when in the history of the game before this year was a guy taken out while pitching a perfect game after six? Never. Now, as the KC Royals showed and the Dodgers are also showing, a great bullpen, with multiple pitchers brought in for specific matchups, is making the late part of the game dull as watching paint dry because hitting is so weak in the late innings. For most of the decades I've watched the game, it used to be that if you chased the starter, you shelled the bullpen. You're wrong.
Ed (Washington, Dc)
Totally disagree that lousy pitching is the cause for more homers. Average pitching speed has increased dramatically over the past four years, and pitching speed is a primary reason for whiffing at the plate. See stats below.

My take on the reason there are more homers this year is, batters are working harder at the plate and in off season than they've ever done before. The workout routines of the top hitters is basically stunning, and they've also received top coaching from hitters of yesteryear.

Go get em hitters; playoff season is nearly upon us!!

http://triblive.com/sports/mlb/5423918-74/mph-velocity-cole

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/10852133/cardinals-trevor-rosenthal-t...
Steve (New York)
I'm old enough to remember a time when relievers were often over the hill starters. Now on many staffs the relievers are the best in the game. Oh, and if you look at great closers of the past such as Goose Gossage and Sparky Lyle you may notice they pitched a lot more innings than any of today's closers.
kjd (taunton, mass.)
Strikeouts are WAY UP, and the quality of pitching is WAY DOWN!!
DTOM (CA)
Who cares why there are more home runs?
Bring offense back with more singles hitters and put the DH in the NL.

This is similar to the 3pt shot in the NBA. The all or nothing approach becomes the definition of the sport and the finer things in the games becomes diluted. To each his own.
Paul (Bellerose Terrace)
No DH, thanks. Adam Wainwright of the Cards has 16 RBI this year. The Mets alleged starting catcher, Travis d'Arnaud, has 14.
Pitchers used to be able to hit (Seaver, Drysdale, Gibson, McNally and many more) They could again, if they practiced. But fundamentals are dead in this game.
jim (virginia)
The umpire's strike zone has more to do with hitting stats than any other factor.
JimmyMac (Valley of the Moon)
That makes no sense to me. Please explain.
John Wilson (Ny)
Right on Jim.
R. Wayne (USA)
I was a lifelong baseball fan until the year McGwire and Sosa were hitting all those homers and the game just became absurd. Haven't watched, read, or listened to anything related to the sport since then. Good to know I haven't missed anything.

Home runs are exciting when they are difficult and rare, not easy and plentiful.
Opus 131 (California)
"Home runs are exciting when they are difficult and rare, not easy and plentiful."

ABSOLUTELY!
VJR (North America)
You really need to see Gary Sanchez. There is something about him reminiscent of a young Albert Pujols or a young Michael Jordan. This 23-year old rookie has an air of security like a precise surgeon both at the plate and behind it. He already has the record for Faster to first 18 HR in MLB History and, since he hit his 19th in the same game as the 18tj, he has that record too. Don't deny yourself the possibility of witnessing a possible once in a generation player.
OldGuyWhoKnowsStuff (Hogwarts)
I was probably a baseball fan before you were ('55 Dodgers), and I remain a lifelong fan. Poor fellah, you've missed so much great baseball.
Dagwood (San Diego)
Wasn't the story that Bonds decided to use steroids because he saw how much attention the McGwires were getting, learned that home runs mattered to people more than anything, and went for it. This applies to the sport in general. Strikeouts are also way up. People are not hitting 70 but lots of people are hitting 25 or more. I'm a fan of many decades and this is very bland baseball to my eye. I love speed, defense, strategy, finesse. When I see the highlight films, the batting ones are all identical looking blasts. What makes some highlights are the situation not the feat. But defense and triples....sweet! I know these changes are responses to fans and money...just saying I miss the other style.
APS (Olympia WA)
All or nothing, homer or K, doesn't that fly in the face of statistical analysis suggesting it should be a homer or a BB?
M2Connell (Port Huron, Michigan)
History would suggest that baseball should be presumed guilty until proven innocent.
Steve Sailer (America)
Sabremetrics showed that a lot of the traditionally celebrated small ball tactics -- making contact, sacrifice bunts, the hit and run, line-drive hitting, stealing bases, etc. -- didn't make much sense statistically. Instead, batters should try to hit homers or walk, and accept the risk of more strikeouts.

It works, but it has made baseball more monotonous.
OldGuyWhoKnowsStuff (Hogwarts)
It is interesting to watch Joc Pederson of the Dodgers in this regard. He is amazingly well disciplined for his age at laying off bad pitches and drawing walks. But he's a homer-or-strikeout guy when they throw him strikes.

I watched him closely in the second half of last season. He still drew a lot of walks. The only hole in his swing was the strike zone.
Ira Leviton (New York)
Baseball is a complex game, so there's probably no simple explanation for all the home runs. Maybe it's a little of the ball, maybe some players have founds ways around drug testing. But I believe that much of it is power - pitching and hitting. Statistics about strikeouts should have been included in the article - the number of strikeouts is going up, and up, and up. Hitters have the attitude that if they strike out and runners don't advance, it's the same as if they fly out, pop out, or line out, but if they happen to make contact, a home run or double is a lot better than a single. Players who strike out 100 times a year are common, and 150 times a year is not rare. Fifty years ago, 100 times was remarkable, 150 times usually led the league, and 200 times a year simply didn't happen.
wyleecoyoteus (Caldwell, NJ)
They are putting a bunch of zombies on the field. We might as well watch professional wrestling.
Dan Conley (Chicago, IL)
You didn't mention weather. This is the hottest year in history. Baseballs carry farther in warm weather and there have been no cool zones in the league this year mitigating the warmup. At least there's data to back this year -- none whatsoever to prove doping or a juiced ball.
OldGuyWhoKnowsStuff (Hogwarts)
So the climate scientists are juicing the ball. Hope Trump doesn't see your comment.
Phil (Florida)
I don't know about drugs, but teams are definitely loading up on pitchers who throw 95+ MPH. A few years ago 92 was considered fast, now it's almost a changeup. A couple of days ago I was listening as Jose Bautista of the Blue Jays, trailing 1-0, faced Seattle's closer in the 9th. The closer was throwing close to 100 MPH. After a strike, Bautista, an excellent hitter, pulled a 98 MPH fastball foul. I had a feeling that if he threw another fastball Bautista would crush it, and he did to tie the score. No finesse, just power vs. power. One of the best pitchers I ever saw was Catfish Hunter, who wasn't fast but who knew how to get outs. He's in the Hall of Fame. I doubt that he would even be noticed by teams today.
Jp in MP (Midland Park, NJ)
Yes Phil! I'm glad somebody said this. Physics being a precise science tells us that energy is transferred one way or another. Harder pitching is a major factor (this should be the follow-up article to this story.)
So many of the things commenters said before could also play a part (hot days, free-swingers, etc.) You can also add science in the form of training, shorter starts, drugs, opponent analysis, or whatever. The beauty of baseball is there is always so many moving parts it's hard to nail down any one of them that creates change to the extent this story tells.
The use of the recently popular statistic 'exit velocity' tells us hard pitching results in hard-hit balls and people love the term because it sounds all NASAey.
No one needs to use fancy terms when you're sitting there and hear the special sound wood makes when it hits a baseball hard and square; you don't even have to see it to know what just happened.
OldGuyWhoKnowsStuff (Hogwarts)
Then you surely also saw Greg Maddux, who was even better than Catfish at using location and trickery.
Double-stop (Hong Kong)
There are still some finesse pitchers out there, like Bautista's team mate Marco Estrada. Estrada throws a four-seam fastball with an average velocity of 90 MPH, a curveball averaging in the high 70s, a high 80s cutter, and a high-70s to low-80's change up . His best pitch is his changeup, which he throws just above 78 MPH on average with considerable downward movement (source wikipedia).
Dave (Cheshire)
Mark McGuire looked like a superhero when he was doping. All the Times needs to do is photograph these guys up close and then do a comparison. It shouldn't be too difficult to ascertain whether something fishy is going on.
Michaelira (New Jersey)
Ortiz, a known user of P.E.D.'s, is having the kind of year at 40 that only one other player has ever had--Barry Bonds. Case closed. Ortiz was an average ball player with the Twins who became a star as soon as he joined the king of juicers, Manny Ramirez. Occam's razor--he's juicing. What is sickening is that he will be honored by the Yankees on September 29 and is already anointed as a first-ballot Hall of Famer. This emperor has no clothes, but MLB and most fans refuse to dump their delusions about Big Sloppy.
Phil (Florida)
Case closed? In what country, Russia?
Ponderer (New England)
Hopefully you don't serve on jurys.
Logic, Science and Truth (Seattle)
"Sickening?" He's never failed a test despite being tested time and time again. He name was leaked once on an "anonymous" list, with no extenuating detail whatsoever. Not exactly due process.

Look, I know 2004 was painful for you Yankee fans, but get over it! Pathetic.
steve (hawaii)
We'll see what happens during the playoffs, when pitching tends to take precedence. Also, the swing-for-the-fences mentality is probably what's doing it. As for Big Papi? How about the fact that the guy can just plain hit? He's pretty much seen everything there is to see from pitchers, the stroke is grooved no matter what, he's experienced enough to not let slumps bother him, and he's just having a good time in the easiest ballpark to hit a homerun in in the major leagues? I saw a photo of Joe DiMaggio in his 60's playing an old-timer's game. The swing was perfectly balanced, the hands loose and easy. These guys can fall out of bed and hit.
JB (California)
As with most things now-a-days the reason is probably climate change. Warmer summers mean warmer ballparks and thinner air. Bats get bigger when warm, increasing the leverage. The ball travels farther in thinner air, just look at the results in Denver's stadium. Seems plausible to me.
Poppy (Moriches, NY)
Let's not overlook Daniel Murphy who never previously hit .300, let alone .350 along with 25 HRs & 100+ RBIs...
Phil (Florida)
To insinuate that Murphy is using drugs is absurd. He was always a good hitter, and last year he worked to change his approach to hitting with Mets hitting coach Kevin Long and you started to see the results ib the second half of 2015. To impugn someone's honesty without a shred of evidence is irresponsible.
Zola (San Diego)
Murphy is a class-act, and gifted hitter: methodical, patient, well-informed, fearless at the plate, smart, and dedicated. If only he would show the same traits on the field!

In striking contrast to Mr Murphy is Chris Davis of the Orioles, who is an all-or-nothing slugger. With him it is either spectacular homers in bunches, or frustrating strike-outs and leaving runners stranded in scoring position for a team that has notable problems scoring runs despite its slugging prowess. Also unlike Mr. Murphy, Chris Davis is brilliant in the field -- arguably the best defensive first baseman in the majors today, and certainly the most underrated one.

I think it is the all-or-nothing approach embodied by Davis, along with pitchers throwing the ball so hard, that have resulted in so many homers. Hitters like Murphy should be encouraged. Fielders like Davis should be encouraged.
fred thaler (olney, maryland)
We can only hope that MLB is saving specimens on some of these players, particularly David Ortiz for later testing, when the testing technology catches up with the PED companies cloaking.
It seems very unlikely that at age 40, Ortiz is reaching these numbers without help, when the greatest hitters in the history of the game never came close.
My apologies if he is clean, but color me skeptical
Why hasn't MLB asterisked the so called HR records of Bonds, Sosa, and Maguire? Roger and Hank you still own the records.
redweather (Atlanta)
There are a lot of minor league players getting suspended, so it's probably naive to think PEDs are not being used at the major league level. Baseball America has the numbers: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2016-minor-league-drug-suspensions...
Brian (NJ)
Or it could be that baseball teams keep moving their fences closer to home plate to increase offense.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/sports/baseball/mets-fences-citi-field...

I know... I know... I'm talking crazy stuff. It must the be much more plausible reasons explained in this article.
Kevin (Chicago)
The Mets moved their fences in because Citi Field was so cavernous that no one could hit home runs there. Home runs shouldn't be coming every inning, but they should be possible. Even with the fences in, it's still a pitcher's park. Citi Field is an outlier. It's not representative of a trend.
Paul (Bellerose Terrace)
It doesn't explain Anthony Recker last night hitting a line drive to the opposite field that flew over the 380 foot sign in the right center gap.
You didn't used to see that kind of oppo power, least of all from a guy with 18 career homers like Recker.
Mike (NYC)
Ortiz has clearly been on PEDs this year. Nothing else makes sense. It's a shame investigative journalists have not looked more closely at his obvious cheating.
Phil (Florida)
Clearly? If you are going to say something like that you should have some evidence that makes it "clear" to everyone who reads your accusation.
Ponderer (New England)
If someone does well it has to be "obvious" they cheat? Where's your proof?
Zack S (California)
To Phil the Sox fan:
how about: "Ortiz has probably been on PEDs this year..."
Penpoint (Maryland)
Ptichers throwing harder and guys swinging for the fences - and either striking out or knocking the ball out of the park - seems a lot more plausible explanation than a large number of average players seeking to up their home run totals by risking destroying their careers with PEDs.
marty (andover, MA)
Not mentioned is the fact that the number of infield "shifts" increased exponentially these past 5 years to the point where there are now some 25,000 shifts as opposed to under 5,000 a few years ago. This goes hand-in-hand with what Lester said about hitting coaches' encouraging batters to elevate the ball. But, then again neither Sosa, Bonds, or Bagwell (and I believe A-Rod) ever tested positive for steroids or other PEDs and we know that other "luminaries" such as Lance Armstrong and Marion Jones never tested positive as well...

Then there's the case of Messr. Ortiz. A few years ago he couldn't hit a 92-93 MPH fastball and entered June of (I believe 2011 and then 2012) with only a couple of home runs. His bat speed was way down. Proven non-steroid users such as Hank Aaron and Willie Mays could barely hit the ball at age 40. Look at A-Rod this year w/out the use of PEDs. Yet Ortiz is having (by far) the best hitting year in every respect for a 40-year-old player who a few years ago could barely hit the ball...just wondering. Where have you gone Lenny Dykstra...??
George Jackson (Tucson)
Here is a fact you all do not factor in or understand.

1. Almost all power hitters tail off about 38 to 40 years of age. Look it up. Slugging percentage and HR go down.
2. So why does Papi Ortiz still hit well ?
.... A tremendous advancements in ophthalmology. Lasik Surgery. Treatments to improve eye-focus rate of adjustment called "accommodation" 3. Pretty much every human loses this rate of adjustment as eye muscles weaken and the eye's lense gets a bit stiffer with age. Presbyopia, ie readers, and bi-focals. but
4. There are techniques available today, never to Mays or Robinson or Ruth. But to Ortiz - yes.

Eyesight. The technology has changed. And that has changed the ability to read the baseball from mount to plate.
Zack S (California)
maybe.
Andy (New York)
I can't believe how far down I had to read before I saw your comment on shifts. All the way back to Ted Williams, the word was that the best way to beat a shift was over the top. I think that for most batters, and certainly those that already had pull/power tendencies, that's the solution to the shift. Though I still remember seeing Jason Giambi get on with a bunt down the 3rd base line; a few of these to keep infields honest and attentive would even the strategic playing field. I'm not looking forward to an MLB with zero complete games and a shift on every at-bat.
Dave M (Mnpls)
It is odd that Ortiz is hitting with such power at age 40 when ballplayers like Aaron & Mays couldn't come close to it. But being a DH for almost his entire career has protected him from the most physical part of the game. How many HRs would Aaron have hit if he didn't play the outfield and instead sat in an air-conditioned clubhouse between at bats?
Al Vyssotsky (Queens)
Even as a DH, Ortiz is suffering from wear and tear. He has missed several games due to foot problems. If he wasn't a DH, he would have had to retire years ago.
George Jackson (Tucson)
I have seen Mays, Mantle around 1960 and 61, Aaron in the 70s, Reggie, Bench, Robinson, Killebrew, Yaz, Rodriguez.. Manny and Ortiz, and Rice and Fred Lynn.

Of these, and I didn't see Williams, Ortiz's swing is the most developed for power with contact-average. His release is mindful of the beautiful swing of Fred Lynn his rookie year. Notice the follow thru in the picture. The early sluggers cork screwed themselves and didn't release as cleaning the upper hand.

As I said in another post, Ortiz's best advantage is the modern eyesight technology of Lasik surgery, Intra ocular lenses, and the physics of the swing.
Lou Good (Page, AZ)
The game is all about power now, pitchers and hitters. As a result, that's all most of the current players work on. Strikeouts don't matter at all and neither do fundamentals as an ever increasing number of runs are the result of HRs, especially in the AL. Stealing bases, moving runners along, productive outs are all fading away. There are many, many players who really don't know how to play the game as it was designed.

The result is increasingly boring baseball, posing at the plate for OUTS and terrible fundamental baseball. Bloop and a blast, 100 mph pitches, strikeouts, that's it.

And cheating. Numbers don't lie.
JPLA (Pasadena)
It's the ball.
DJFarkus (St. Louis MO)
I've been convinced the ball is "juiced" for months now. Can't remember the exact game or player, but when I watched an "excuse-me" check-swing travel 370 feet for an opposite field home run, I knew it was the ball.
Yes, hitters have fundamentally changed their approach, and that has an effect. But when a check-swing goes 370 feet, something is not right.
JimmyMac (Valley of the Moon)
There's nothing mysterious about proofing and comparing ball quality. Just measure the bounce. I imagine there's a specification, and it's easily tested.
Grant (Boston)
David Ortiz has been a known illegal stimulent user as have been other members of the Boston Red Sox over the past decade and yet the Baseball Commissioners, past and present, continue to look the other way. Again this year, something doesn’t look right in Beantown and yet one can only hear crickets during this retirement party for Mr. Ortiz.
Brian (NJ)
How many times has Ortiz been tested for drugs over the past 15 years and what was the specific stimulant he tested positive for? All I've heard are rumors... mainly coming from fans of teams that the Red Sox beat on a regular basis.
Anonymous (MA)
I agree, Brian!
Stop trying to rain on the Red Sox parade. And especially Papi's.
Bynda (NYC)
On the question of whether PEDs are still being used, note that ARod and the rest of those caught in the Biogenesis scandal did not fail their drug tests. Instead, they got snared by documentation and testimony. It would be naive to think that there aren't other firms like Biogenesis providing other players with PEDs and the protocol to avoid detection. But I do think that fewer players are doping, which explains the quick drop off of guys like Mark Texieira, which is normal for someone in his mid 30's who ISN'T doping.
ksl (NJ)
Exactly! Only Ryan Braun failed a drug test among the dozen or more suspended due to the Biogenesis scandal, and he got off on a technicality. That's an existence proof that shows the ineffectiveness of MLB's drug testing program.

As for why MLB wouldn't juice the baseballs because the Japanese commissioner was suspended: that's like a criminal claiming innocence because someone else was convicted for breaking the same law. Huh?
jimgood6 (Kingston, Canada)
Explain to me how PEDs improve twitch-muscle reflexes and hand-eye co-ordination and I'll pay attention your drug inferences. Hitting a baseball at the major league level is not like running faster or lifting heavier weights. Anyway, it's not like they take the roids, go to sleep and wake up bulked. They still have to put in the work.
Al Vyssotsky (Queens)
Good point. Hank Aaron said that home runs come from the wrists and the hips, not the biceps.
Yetanothervoice (Washington DC)
Then what was all the fuss about with Sosa, McGwire & Bonds?
Steve (Toronto, Ontario)
Maybe swinging a bat is qualitatively different than cleaning 200 kilos, but clearly doping makes a big difference when you square the ball up (admittedly not easy for even the pros to do). Just look at McGuire, Sosa, and Bonds et al. in the not-so-distant past.
Also, bulking up in the right way obviously enhances what you can do with fast-twitch muscles. Remember Ben Johnson?