By using 'really' in the headline, the author (or headline writer?) is apologizing for the article's conclusion. What's there to apologize for? If your addition is correct, the plan's is wrong, so say so by rewriting the headline to read 'The Arithmetic in Donald Trump's Job Plan Doesn't Add Up'. Otherwise this is more journalistic double standard on reporting the campaign.
20
In his column, Mr. Irwin ably describes that Trump's assertion is contrary to reality. But why does it take an economic opinion writer to refute Trump ? Why doesn't the working reporter covering the story of Trump's speech simply write: Trump has a plan to provide 25 million new jobs but cannot say how this will occur. He provides as much reasoning to support his goal as the people in the 1500's who did not know anything about the shape of the earth and said that the earth was flat.
32
That's not the only thing about his "plan" that doesn't add up.
The tax cuts would greatly enrich those who already have too much. Our experience with this type of tax treatment has shown that far from investing in the economy to increase employment or enhance productivity, the money goes to overseas tax shelters, yachts, and plastic surgery.
Lets not dignify this by calling it a "plan".
The tax cuts would greatly enrich those who already have too much. Our experience with this type of tax treatment has shown that far from investing in the economy to increase employment or enhance productivity, the money goes to overseas tax shelters, yachts, and plastic surgery.
Lets not dignify this by calling it a "plan".
30
The essential statement here: "economists don't generally believe that presidents have much power, at least directly, over productivity growth."
The thing that's omitted is that innovation is a double-edged sword.
Yes, secretaries lose their jobs, or their jobs are changed, by word processing. That sounds pretty innocuous, but it's not so innocuous for people who lose their jobs. In the long run, we might en masse be better off, but for individuals, innovations can be catastrophic.
Take the case of Uber's driverless cars as an example. The implications are enormous. It's not globalization, it's millions of people who make their living by driving out of work. What should we do about that? What should we have done about other innovations that have destroyed lives and communities? That's one of the most important questions that's not often asked.
The thing that's omitted is that innovation is a double-edged sword.
Yes, secretaries lose their jobs, or their jobs are changed, by word processing. That sounds pretty innocuous, but it's not so innocuous for people who lose their jobs. In the long run, we might en masse be better off, but for individuals, innovations can be catastrophic.
Take the case of Uber's driverless cars as an example. The implications are enormous. It's not globalization, it's millions of people who make their living by driving out of work. What should we do about that? What should we have done about other innovations that have destroyed lives and communities? That's one of the most important questions that's not often asked.
12
We should invest in education and training. I'm living proof that these things work and benefit not just the individual but society as a whole.
9
I'm so sick of articles about Trump starting with "at least he figured out what the problem is"
13
Just another day for another Trump fantasy. Don't worry, his supporters believe him anyways.
26
Trump lies again. I'm shocked!!
He will deport 11 million immigrants and discourage countless other talented immigrants from coming to the U.S. with his xenophobic rhetoric and policies.
Then there are those citizens that will leave. I fear a brain drain if he is elected. Or maybe it has already occurred? That would explain a lot in this
campaign.
He will deport 11 million immigrants and discourage countless other talented immigrants from coming to the U.S. with his xenophobic rhetoric and policies.
Then there are those citizens that will leave. I fear a brain drain if he is elected. Or maybe it has already occurred? That would explain a lot in this
campaign.
23
Let me see. If Donald Trump causes a war, just how many men AND women will be called up during the draft? How much of the war machine will brought up to making killing machines? How many workers related to morgues and cemeteries will be needed? How much gear and personnel will be needed to attempt to clean up behind nuclear explosions on US soil? If you consider all of that, sure, I am sure people will get some jobs.
30
The word, "really" should be removed from the title. Just say plainly that the plan Doesn't Work. Since 25 million new jobs requires more workers than we will have, where should we get them? Maybe Mexico? Uh oh! we'll have to tear down the wall!
15
The guy should change his name to PTSD Barnum.
10
The bottom line here is Trump doesn't have a clue, you want it you got it, that is, in a nutshell is all he has ever preached to the American people.
This is his deal, if you swallow it you will elect a lemon to lead the most powerful nation on earth.
Sometimes I just wonder.
This is his deal, if you swallow it you will elect a lemon to lead the most powerful nation on earth.
Sometimes I just wonder.
23
The more he says, the more frightened I become.
28
Who would even listen to a tax proposal from someone who can't even prove he knows how to fill out a valid return ?
32
Not only is Trump a born fabulist, but it seems that the economic advisors who write his speeches also are.
21
It is same as Paul Ryan. Flat out wrong. Doesn't get through middle school.
Unfortunately we have too many who had to suffer through Kansas like education.
God help us.
Unfortunately we have too many who had to suffer through Kansas like education.
God help us.
25
Next, Mr Trump will claim he has a 'secret plan' for adding 25M jobs, that he can't reveal until he is President. Just after he reveals his 'secret plan' to defeat ISIS.
Perhaps he plans to line all the fairways of his fabulous resorts with live human lawn jockeys, and pay them by comping them one free round of 18 holes a year; plus a box of monogrammed Trump golf balls.
Perhaps he plans to line all the fairways of his fabulous resorts with live human lawn jockeys, and pay them by comping them one free round of 18 holes a year; plus a box of monogrammed Trump golf balls.
11
I would most likely believe a successful businessman over a columnist.... just my uneducated opinion
Is "successful" a businessman who stiffs his contractors, stiffs his customers, and lets his fellow investors take losses while he claims a big salary?
16
Trump is not a successful businessman. Get the facts.
14
Hmmm...
Just how many jobs has Mr. Trump created among all his "companies"?
Just how many jobs has Mr. Trump created among all his "companies"?
6
The "plan" doesn't deserve such detailed analysis. It's the usual cut taxes, supply-side "magical thinking" that has been totally, thoroughly debunked by decades of experience (and also by theory, I might add), but that's just, hey, getting into the weeds. More important than demographics and labor supply is the willingness of employers to actually employ people, and that's determined primarily by the level of aggregate demand (now and expectations for same in the future). Dropping corporate tax rates to even zero (and what about all those tax breaks?) will not make businesses start a hiring and investing bonanza. But, as I said, nothing Trump is peddling is based in reality. (And that looks like Glenn Hubbard in the front row, stage right.)
25
Actually it does because those of us who can do math and are willing to do math need to keep repeating that DT's proposals are complete nonsense. We cannot let his crazy proposals go unanswered!
13
Republicans Promise Jobs. Democrats Deliver Jobs.
During Pres. Obama's administration 11 million new private sector jobs have been created which is nearly 10 times the number created during the last 2 GOP presidencies COMBINED. During Pres. Clinton's administration, nearly TWICE as many private sector jobs were created as during Obama's.
The score:
last 2 Dem presidents - 32,000,000 private sector jobs;
last 2 GOP presidents - 1,000,000 private sector jobs.
Going back to the end of World War 2 - Sept., 1945, when Japan surrendered – the period consists of 35 years of Dem presidents and 36 years of Republicans, evenly interspersed. The results are clear:
64,000,000 private sector jobs under Dem presidents
26,000,000 private sector jobs under Republicans
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV
Don't get fooled again by empty GOP promises.
During Pres. Obama's administration 11 million new private sector jobs have been created which is nearly 10 times the number created during the last 2 GOP presidencies COMBINED. During Pres. Clinton's administration, nearly TWICE as many private sector jobs were created as during Obama's.
The score:
last 2 Dem presidents - 32,000,000 private sector jobs;
last 2 GOP presidents - 1,000,000 private sector jobs.
Going back to the end of World War 2 - Sept., 1945, when Japan surrendered – the period consists of 35 years of Dem presidents and 36 years of Republicans, evenly interspersed. The results are clear:
64,000,000 private sector jobs under Dem presidents
26,000,000 private sector jobs under Republicans
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV
Don't get fooled again by empty GOP promises.
62
You are deflecting from the real issues.
Why didn't Hillary tell us she was taking antibiotics ?
Why didn't Hillary tell us she was taking antibiotics ?
5
Antiobiotics are taken every day by millions of people. Why doesn't Trump disclose his tax returns? He's hiding his investments with Russia, China, where he has his clothing line manufactured. Hmm, so let's see, antibiotics versus tax return disclosures? Like all GOP, you spend so much time digging in the dirt you have no time for facts.
10
I think (hope) the comment you've responded to was said in jest. Hard to tell these days.
5
Listen to a mathematician who understands GDP and the frivolous drivel that Trump spouts.
26
Here's my back of the envelope math, using CBO projections for SS, Medicare / Medicaid, and consensus estimates of impact on net interest expense:
- 2016 budget ex SS, CMS, Defense = ($3.7T - $2.63T) = $1.07T (total non-defense discretionary spending)
- Let's assume cuts build over time, such that 18% in final year ($180B)
- Interest payments on the debt go from $223B to ~ $600B (more debt, higher rates)
- Total Change in CMS (projected, 5.8%/yr): $700B /yr
- Total Change in SS (projected): $650B / year
Projected Budget (2026): 2.63T + 380B + 700B + 650B= $4.36B.
Trump claim 2026= $3.7T - 180B = 3.52T
Net Cut: $4.36T - 3.52T = 840B
Trump is claiming he'll cut call it $850B from a total discretionary spending budget of $1.07T. And that assumes no changes, eg no new population, etc.
No Dept Education, no EPA, no NIH, no Dept Energy, no VA, no Homeland security, etc etc etc. Exactly what kind of country is this Trump is proposing?
- 2016 budget ex SS, CMS, Defense = ($3.7T - $2.63T) = $1.07T (total non-defense discretionary spending)
- Let's assume cuts build over time, such that 18% in final year ($180B)
- Interest payments on the debt go from $223B to ~ $600B (more debt, higher rates)
- Total Change in CMS (projected, 5.8%/yr): $700B /yr
- Total Change in SS (projected): $650B / year
Projected Budget (2026): 2.63T + 380B + 700B + 650B= $4.36B.
Trump claim 2026= $3.7T - 180B = 3.52T
Net Cut: $4.36T - 3.52T = 840B
Trump is claiming he'll cut call it $850B from a total discretionary spending budget of $1.07T. And that assumes no changes, eg no new population, etc.
No Dept Education, no EPA, no NIH, no Dept Energy, no VA, no Homeland security, etc etc etc. Exactly what kind of country is this Trump is proposing?
34
Here are just a few excerpts of the Libertarian Party platform that David Koch ran on in 1980: He couldn't win the presidency so he bought the GOP congress and SCOTUS. Donald Trump (R) Donald Trump GOP (Government Operatives for Pay)
Eliminate any governmental control of the education system and compulsory school requirements
Eliminate minimum wage laws
Repeal of federal campaign finance laws, and the immediate abolition of the despotic Federal Election Commission
Eliminate Medicare and Medicaid, All programs in support of child-bearing, taxation in support of children, Welfare, Relief Projects, Aid to Poor,
Eliminate compulsory insurance or tax-supported plan to provide health services, including those which finance abortion services
Deregulation of the medical insurance industry
Eliminate Social Security, Government Postal Service, EPA, Department of Energy, Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Food and Drug Administration, Consumer Product Safety Commission
Eliminate all taxation to include income and capital gains, criminal/civil sanctions against tax evasion
Privatization of the railroad system, public roads, national highway systems, waterways, and water distribution systems
Eliminate laws concerning safety belts, air bags or crash helmets
Eliminate the Occupational Safety and Health Act
Eliminate all branches of the services except the Army.
Eliminate any governmental control of the education system and compulsory school requirements
Eliminate minimum wage laws
Repeal of federal campaign finance laws, and the immediate abolition of the despotic Federal Election Commission
Eliminate Medicare and Medicaid, All programs in support of child-bearing, taxation in support of children, Welfare, Relief Projects, Aid to Poor,
Eliminate compulsory insurance or tax-supported plan to provide health services, including those which finance abortion services
Deregulation of the medical insurance industry
Eliminate Social Security, Government Postal Service, EPA, Department of Energy, Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Food and Drug Administration, Consumer Product Safety Commission
Eliminate all taxation to include income and capital gains, criminal/civil sanctions against tax evasion
Privatization of the railroad system, public roads, national highway systems, waterways, and water distribution systems
Eliminate laws concerning safety belts, air bags or crash helmets
Eliminate the Occupational Safety and Health Act
Eliminate all branches of the services except the Army.
12
You perfectly state the Koch's and GOP's endgame,which is the take down of the federal government and therefore American Democracy and their desire to rule by free market and states right run by oligarchs. There was a time when assassinations silenced the voices of equal rights and peace, but they could not continue that so they bought everything, the media, the congress, the supreme court, and brainwashed those too blind to see and too lazy to get the facts with fox news and AM hate-talk radio. Trump is the puppet they needed to execute their plan, he is their monster who will end American Democracy.
11
Oh, piffle! Don't sweat the numbers, just listen to the cheers! Must be ok!
18
There were a lot of reasons for me to leave the Republican party, they aren't really pro-life, they always need to demonize someone (gay people, people of color etc.) but the biggest reason was the fact that they can't do basic math. The numbers never add up. Ideology aside, that fact alone should really bother people.
55
'Doesn't really work'? How about 'is wrong'? Or 'is crazy'? Also, can you please clarify that this is the third plan Trump is releasing, each wildly different from the one before. What would you call it if Clinton released her third major modification in her tax plan? Somehow, I have trouble envisioning a compliment for Clinton talking about growth in that hypothetical article.
56
Thanks, NKB. Although the fact that this article was written at all seems to be a positive development, it is still frustrating that readers feel they need to remind the NYT journalists how to do their jobs. Baby steps....
6