How about this conspiracy theory - Trump is being presented with offers of billions of dollars by rich Republican donors to dropout. Trumps inexplicable behavior is merely him setting-up a way out to collect.
85
I doubt that one can draw such an inference from a small differential. It seems more likely that there's a different set of bettors in the two outcomes and that at least some of them do not take advantage of the differential in the payoff.
17
This is wishful thinking. Donald Trump will not drop out even after he loses the election. We will hear for days how it was an unfair election.
91
Trump is doing to the GOP what he has done with some many of his business ventures. He has driven it into moral bankruptcy and before getting set to flee the scene. He has a rich small-donor list to take with him now that he has ransacked the party. Just like how he bragged how much cash he walked away with after his casinos went under.Maybe his is ready to do another 'pivot'. But they are always 360 degrees then double down.
43
Here's a thought:
what if The Donald's plan is to bet everything he has in on dropping out, discreetly and anonymously through some third party international betting operation, drop out a day or two before the election, and go singing all the way to the bank? What are THOSE odds, do you think?
what if The Donald's plan is to bet everything he has in on dropping out, discreetly and anonymously through some third party international betting operation, drop out a day or two before the election, and go singing all the way to the bank? What are THOSE odds, do you think?
56
Sadly, don't bet on it
24
"Senior Republican officials" are fantasizing that Trump will drop out? Talk about too little too late.
It was very obvious that Trump, a bloviating hot-headed publicity-seeking narcissist (I've stopped calling him a carnival barker because it's insulting to carnival barkers), is wildly incompetent as a candidate. I wouldn't trust him with my daughter (read his statements re: Ivanka). I wouldn't trust him with my money (read about investors short-changed in his bankruptcies). I wouldn't trust him with anyone's education (read Cohen v. Trump, the "Trump University" case). And the Republicans endorsed him as trustworthy with the nuclear codes? NOW, they are fantasizing that he will just go away?
Trump's an idiot. What excuse do the rest of them have?
It was very obvious that Trump, a bloviating hot-headed publicity-seeking narcissist (I've stopped calling him a carnival barker because it's insulting to carnival barkers), is wildly incompetent as a candidate. I wouldn't trust him with my daughter (read his statements re: Ivanka). I wouldn't trust him with my money (read about investors short-changed in his bankruptcies). I wouldn't trust him with anyone's education (read Cohen v. Trump, the "Trump University" case). And the Republicans endorsed him as trustworthy with the nuclear codes? NOW, they are fantasizing that he will just go away?
Trump's an idiot. What excuse do the rest of them have?
215
I can't fault your math, but the way you handled the numbers was clumsy. It was obvious why you did it this way, but it would have been nice if you had tossed us a graphic or equation or two.
10
I think the odds of a Republican victory go WAY UP if Trump withdraws and endorses his replacement.
First, Republicans will put forth their Consensus Man, Paul D. Ryan, who has an undeserved reputation as a thoughtful serious man of integrity. Republicans of all stripes regain enthusiasm for the election.
Second, Democrats have nominated Hillary Clinton, who is at once both the most qualified candidate to exercise the office of President and the least likely candidate to actually win an election. As great a President as she might be, she is not liked or trusted. Not even as much as losing candidates Kerry, Gore and Dukakis.
Democratic party obstinacy in prioritizing qualifications over electability, combined with a facially plausible Republican candidate, spell disaster for Democrats in November.
Bet on it.
First, Republicans will put forth their Consensus Man, Paul D. Ryan, who has an undeserved reputation as a thoughtful serious man of integrity. Republicans of all stripes regain enthusiasm for the election.
Second, Democrats have nominated Hillary Clinton, who is at once both the most qualified candidate to exercise the office of President and the least likely candidate to actually win an election. As great a President as she might be, she is not liked or trusted. Not even as much as losing candidates Kerry, Gore and Dukakis.
Democratic party obstinacy in prioritizing qualifications over electability, combined with a facially plausible Republican candidate, spell disaster for Democrats in November.
Bet on it.
25
Currently looking at the data on Betfair (9:30 am), the difference between the odds of Clinton winning and the Democrats winning is 2.33%, and the difference between the odds of Trump and the Republicans winning is only 1.0%. I'm not sure how much these number fluctuate over time, but this does seem to contradict what is written about the odds of Clinton and the Dems winning being roughly the same, and would imply that there are some other factors at play with the difference between the parties odds of winning, and the candidates odds of winning
23
My GOD does the media every stop! Funny how the media lies and then Trump has a rally last night in Florida with 15,000 people cheering and 100,000 online watching live with only 105 dislikes. Trump is doing just fine!! Hillary and Obozo are getting 90% dislikes and any youtube video you look at!!! Trump is just uprooting the ones screwing everyone!! Trump 2016! no stopping it. We don't believe the media!
6
I think Trump is a wrong choice. He isn't fit to be our next president of USA. Republican will win with person like Mitt Romney, he has a good character and decent life. No Trump please.
11
Mind-boggling headlines that are all designed to attack Trump. He's not dropping out, he's not going anywhere — despite Clinton's deepest wish that he would. This feeding frenzy is happening precisely because the Dems fear he can and will win the election. There would be no reason for this propaganda if they didn't have a worthy opponent — a very worthy opponent. Vote Trump, people. Hillary is a disaster of epic proportions.
7
And the odds for Bremain were 5-1 over Brexit. Odds have a way of not always working out.
18
Why would Trump drop out? He is going up against the most corrupt candidate for President we've ever seen in history. What other Presidential Candidate do you know that has been under FBI investigation during the entire run for President? She still is under FBI investigation for lying under oath to Congress & the Clinton Foundation possibly stealing $$ from Haiti and other projects.
Now, there is suggestion Hillary while Secretary of State could have been a part of this who $400 million ransom for hostages. Do we really want this kind of corruption as our President?
Now, there is suggestion Hillary while Secretary of State could have been a part of this who $400 million ransom for hostages. Do we really want this kind of corruption as our President?
9
There are elements trying to PUSH Trump out of the race but I don't see any inclination from him to leave voluntarily. He still resonates strongly with his supporters and every push by the media to get rid of him is like throwing gas on the fire of their ardor. The crying baby gambit was especially weak; listen to the tape..he was actually CHARMING from a New Yorker's perspective. And as for hostile media's focus on "top republican insiders" being against him, meh....sour grapes from losers. Don't assume that we haven't noticed the lack of coverage of Hillary. She wants to continue in the Obama tradition, so I suppose there will be more pallets of cash headed to Iran? And I suppose there will be less crying babies once she pushes through taxpayer funded abortions? Just do your job, Fourth Estate and stop trying to be queen makers.
8
The biggest reason for Trump to drop out is that he must be scared to death of facing Hillary Clinton in the coming debates. She would show him up for the ignoramus he is. He was frightened of Megan Kelly and ran away from her. And she works for Fox News for God’s sake. Trump has already tried to weasel out of the debates, but it seems that not many are buying his excuses. I think that there is a real possibility that he may drop out of the election rather than have Hillary humiliate him in front of millions of viewers. Or maybe he will have a case of food poisoning (three times in a row) making him unable to attend the debates.
52
Considering that the TRUMP brand is of paramount importance to Donald Trump, as his shoot from the hip say anything style brought success in the Republican Primary, he perceived that his brand was getting positive attention, but now that he is being seen as the dangerous embarrassment that he is, there is significant risk that his brand will be considerably damaged, and that will make Trump consider dropping out.
The ignominy of dropping out is probably the only thing that will prevent it from happening.
The ignominy of dropping out is probably the only thing that will prevent it from happening.
20
He will never quit, because then he'd be labeled a quitter. No, he will stick it out to the very end, then blame the RNC, the 'rigged system,' everyone but himself. This is a man who has never taken responsibility for anything, after all.
164
While nobody can predict the future, there is a greater chance than in any other previous election that Trump will drop out.
Having said this, the odds are still low, ie, if there was a 1% chance that a candidate would drop out before, even if Trump increases the odds 400% there is still only a 4% likelihood he will drop out.
Trump is a ego maniac with a personality disorder that will say or do anything to get elected, but he can't stay on the Republican scrip, like the alchy trying to stay off booze. The Republican script doesn't feed his ego ie., it doesn't read that he is god.
With all things being equal and barring something stupid from Hillary, Trump will lose. The only question is which way the Senate and House will go. The Republicans will almost certainly lose the Senate and put the majority in house in jeopardy or at least suffer great loses...
Having said this, the odds are still low, ie, if there was a 1% chance that a candidate would drop out before, even if Trump increases the odds 400% there is still only a 4% likelihood he will drop out.
Trump is a ego maniac with a personality disorder that will say or do anything to get elected, but he can't stay on the Republican scrip, like the alchy trying to stay off booze. The Republican script doesn't feed his ego ie., it doesn't read that he is god.
With all things being equal and barring something stupid from Hillary, Trump will lose. The only question is which way the Senate and House will go. The Republicans will almost certainly lose the Senate and put the majority in house in jeopardy or at least suffer great loses...
50
I have bone spurs in both my heels. The worst thing that can happen with them is that my shoes wear out from the heels, not the toes.
You would think that it would be uncomfortable to walk, but i can walk and run perfectly well, bone spurs or not.
Unlike Ritchie Rich who needed a lame excuse not to serve his country.
You would think that it would be uncomfortable to walk, but i can walk and run perfectly well, bone spurs or not.
Unlike Ritchie Rich who needed a lame excuse not to serve his country.
43
No problem with Money Grubber Hillary stealing from Haiti, letting 4 Americans die in Benghazi and lying about facing sniper fire...among thousands of other despicable details....
4
This article is rife with wishful thinking, which is what is often reflected in betting. The Democrats better take the odd chance that Mr. Trump might win seriously, as he has matched fund raising and is only +- 8% behind with a margin of error of 4%. So much for a sure bet.
22
Meanwhile, the most recent Fox News poll shows Hillary up by 9 over The Donald.
Who's engaging in wishful thinking?
Who's engaging in wishful thinking?
28
We were talking about this last night. I think if the polls show him in the low 30's or low polling plus the IRS finishing his audit, this becomes a greater possibility. Now? Not really and option because he still has a chance (convention bounces fade).
But I don't think Trump will ever take responsibility for losing that badly. By a little, maybe but if he gets blown out it'll crush his ego and that's all he has. He'll defend it the same way he does everything else, by blaming someone else.
But I don't think Trump will ever take responsibility for losing that badly. By a little, maybe but if he gets blown out it'll crush his ego and that's all he has. He'll defend it the same way he does everything else, by blaming someone else.
53
You comment is utterly incoherent.
6
By my odds, the chance of Trump actually releasing his taxes before the election are about a brazillion-to-one.
24
I'd say the odds that Trump would quit the race on Monday and on Tuesday decide he really didn't mean to quit the race on Monday and blaming everyone else for it are greater than him being elected President.
63
There will come a point when Trump has to face the reality of a blind trust, and that the job of president will not allow him to run his businesses.
Then what?
Then what?
61
We'll let him deal with that once he's president.
BTW - That never stopped Clinton from cleaning up in the stock market.
BTW - That never stopped Clinton from cleaning up in the stock market.
4
Drop out, stay in, he's unfit, blah blah blah enough with the free press for Trump. As I write this comment, 6 of the top 10 NYT stories are about Trump. Whether they are good or bad, stop giving him the free press that he clamors for and drives his ego.
193
Yeah, he LOVES all of that attention; and now, the "feelingg sorry for" effect. That's part of his game, and that's how he SEEMED to ALWAYS been. (also, accordingg, to his one lawyer- that spoke on him the other day)
Earlier this year, I wrote comments on here with the indication that he's only doing this for publicity.
The non-stop vile attacks on the Kahn makes me wonder if he's deliberately trying to paint himself into a corner where he's "forced" to withdraw his candidacy as a way to get out of this.
After all, the goal of his campaign has always been: "Make Trump Money Again"....
The non-stop vile attacks on the Kahn makes me wonder if he's deliberately trying to paint himself into a corner where he's "forced" to withdraw his candidacy as a way to get out of this.
After all, the goal of his campaign has always been: "Make Trump Money Again"....
71
Trump had been ahead of Clinton by a point or two preceeding and during the Democratic National Convention, and now Real Clear Politics shows him down by about 5 points. That being the case isn't it interesting that the latest month of Trump fund raising has been overwhelmingly from very small donors, and even so he is coming close to matching the latest month of fund raising by Clinton, whose donations come primarily from the very well heeled and very big check writing donor class? Isn't it also interesting that the media is overwhelmingly reporting on a so called demise of the Trump campaign, so much so, that they are suggesting he may soon drop out of the race altogether. Trump continues to have more and larger rallies than Clinton by a far greater margin. His smallest rallies are about the size of her largest rallies. Clinton is a carefully packaged deal...no press conferences since last year. Her emails, which have been published, are suggestive of a mind in disarray. Her sentences are incomplete and incoherent. She speaks well. So do some parrots. It is apparent she cannot spare with the media in the intense high pressure arena of a press conference. A President, who does not give press conferences, to my view, is not really a President. Perhaps Clinton, not Trump, should be the one, who drops out of the race.
17
Surely you jest
28
Hahahahaha!
22
Is that you, Donald?
40
One question.
Have betting odds (or financial markets for that matter) ever been a meaningful predictor of anything ?
Have betting odds (or financial markets for that matter) ever been a meaningful predictor of anything ?
7
Try beating the bookie on any sporting event. It's absolutely uncanny.
25
My understanding from not just Nate Silver but other statisticians is that yes, in aggregate those markets comprise among the most predictive outcome instruments available AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT in time - an important caveat, since they, too, continuously shift as updated information becomes available.
10
Actually. yes. The 'collective wisdom' does better than the Pundits. Surprising, but true.
3
If people who fear for their freedom and want a working government come out to vote there will be a Democratic landslide supported by a considerable number of Republicans who are not infected with the insanity which has destroyed the GOP as a mainstream American political party. The people must prevail over the mob.
153
How could you truly believe Hillary Clinton is out to defend your freedoms? It blows my mind.
4
Trump the Bigot is in this for his ego. Hence, no coherent plan to share with the American people. As long as he thinks he can win he will stay on. However, if he thinks that he will lose then he will exit. This has never been about his supporters or nation. This ridiculous son of an orangutan likes to see his name in print and to have people talk about him.
167
Word is that Donald will cull out his old bone spur malady, seek a deferment and limp off the grandstand.
65
the people who support Trump have a say to in this election too.These are people who are not happy with the goverment.To ignore thier pleas is not democartic.The border police have endorsed Trump.Who better to decide if the wall is a good idea than them?You and me, our job is not to keep this country safe.It's easy for us to criticize policies and procedures that don't directly affect us on a daily basis.It's easy for us to want to be kind and understanding at the expense of someone elses job.Ask yourself, is there another way if you are seriuos about making America safe again?To take over the corrupted government, we need a guy like Trump.You have to be loud.
6
For me it's not wanting to be kind versus somebody's job and there are some ideas that Trump's brashness has fully articulated. However, I personally have seen thousands jobs on the upper end taken by tech savvy immigrants from India, China, and other areas but not from Mexico who start outtaking jobs at the very low end of the economy, and who are absolutely needed to pay into the Social Security and Medicare system. Fundamentally, however, what worries me about Trump is not his loudness - HIllary's voice is not exactly soft and sweet - it's that he seems to get emotionally caught in attack mode for every little thing, leaving him no reflective bandwidth to make complex decisions and no principles to make decision that work for others. I worry he will bankrupt the country, create a new surge in islamic extremism, and drop a nuclear bomb on some entity that ends our nearly impossible battle to postpone a future nuclear war.
113
He is as corrupt and lier as the worst politicians!!! The difference is others better qualified have dedicated their life to public office!!!! The Republican in Congress will resist any good progress for the nation. We must stand against Trump because he represents what is wrong with this country! What? Division, hate, not a good businessman, no experience. He is just like Rubio, another good speaker who says what the 'masses want to hear" and who ignore his track record as a businessman and human being!!! People who vote for Trump as fooling themselves!!! Saint Pete,Fl./D.C.
7
I am not happy with the government. If Mr. Trump would become president, I would be even less happy.
I am serious about making America safer. (Not "safe again" because America never was and never will be completely safe.) If Mr. Trump would become president, he would like to give nuclear bombs to Japan which would make America less safe.
Trump is not only loud. He is loud and incoherent.
I am serious about making America safer. (Not "safe again" because America never was and never will be completely safe.) If Mr. Trump would become president, he would like to give nuclear bombs to Japan which would make America less safe.
Trump is not only loud. He is loud and incoherent.
13
Of course he isn't dropping out. His entry into the race is a nightmare for the media, who he exposed as hypocrites and liars. BTW, there's an email mess at the DNC. Hillary for Prison 2017!
4
Actually it's a nightmare for those of us who had the chance to invest in tinfoil hats and didn't. The conspiratorial ramblings of Trump apologists have Stockholm syndrome written all over them – right down to the part about telling the rest of us we're the ones who have been brainwashed.
86
He did expose the media for being hypocrites and liars. There was an email mess at the dnc so bad the head of the party had to step down. The truth to liberals is insane. Who brought up brainwashing and conspiracy? Why?
2
Nightmare for media? Do you realize 'the media' is a for-profit industry whose only bottom line interest is whatever content maximizes the clicks & views that equal ad revenue in its world? In which case Trump's been a gift on a platter to media conglomerates, not the blight that in fact sunshine & unicorns make? Sure it's true that individual career journalists tend to be liberal and to disfavor Trump-like authoritarian agendas that threaten to curtail their first amendment freedoms, but 'The Media' - as monolithically known to critics - that employees them is a far more powerful force that answers to the singular amoral purpose of profit (Which, BTW, corporate types like Trump are remarkably good at peddling as a bellwether of individual freedom, but I digress.)
Your comment reflects such a common yet fundamental misunderstanding of the media's driving agenda, it exacerbates my misgivings about basic civic literacy rates in this country, making me second guess whether depressed voter turnout is always a democratic malady, or sometimes a blessing.
Your comment reflects such a common yet fundamental misunderstanding of the media's driving agenda, it exacerbates my misgivings about basic civic literacy rates in this country, making me second guess whether depressed voter turnout is always a democratic malady, or sometimes a blessing.
18
One can only hope!
13
In a world where 1.7% isn't negligible, the grasp of the straw is so salient to this exposition. Beyond that, and with no math, I think he might drop out. Pence signed the Religious Freedom Reformation Act as Governor of Indiana and made the front page in 2015, so he is sexual rights obsessed, which hasn't been addressed enough since he would be a heartbeat away from the lead role. And I do think this is a play in which Trump might have the final act written, and is therefore enjoying his last remaining campaign weeks. It may come as, "I don't endorse Ryan because I am giving him my job as President. Excuse me, can you get that baby out of here? I love the babies. Yes. Yes, remove that kid now. How cute. Get it out of here. Thanks."
33
I'm not a statistician or a probability specialist, but it seems to me that the difference between "chance that Trump will be elected president" and "chance that a Republican will be elected president" are two completely different bets. There's no indication that I can see that the same people laid bets on both of these questions at the same time. I was surprised the percentages were as close as they were.
6
so if he gets elected what do we do then?
the man is a nut case
the man is a nut case
59
The author seems to overlook the chance that neither candidate gets to 270 electoral votes and the congress is responsible for selecting the president. This might be the difference in the odds of a Trump presidency and a Republican presidency. With the interest in third party candidates this year, this in my opinion would account for the 1.7% difference, but that makes a much less appealing headline.
20
And in a race decided by the House, how many Republicans will want to be seen on the record as electing this nutcase? Talk about a legacy.
16
RealClearPolitics (a polling watchdog/reporting service that leans GOP) has Clinton with 206 electoral college votes. RCP lists Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida still in play.
What are the purple states that could end up in Clinton's total of electoral college votes that could get her 64 more votes? Oregon (7 electoral college votes) is 7 points in Clinton's favor. Pennsylvania (20 votes) is 8 points in Clinton's favor. Wisconsin (10 votes) is 5.6 points in Clinton's favor. Michigan (16 votes) is 5 points in Clinton's favor. Virginia (13 points) is 5.3 points in Clinton's favor. Florida (29 votes) is 5.3 points in Clinton's favor. These are the purple states polling averaging 5 points or greater for Clinton. The total is comfortable for Clinton at 301. Polling in Clinton's favor at less than 5 points is Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and Nevada. They total 45 electoral college votes.
Trump has a predicted 154 electoral college votes. The purple states in Trump's favor per RCP are Georgia, Missouri and Arizona. They total 37 votes.
Johnson must take blue states for the votes to fall below 270. None are out there for Governor Johnson to pick off according to all polls. He'll only pick off GOP states. So, there's no way to get Clinton below 270 unless Trump (or some other candidate) wins 270 or more electoral college votes. So, the author overlooked them as the odds are much worse.
What are the purple states that could end up in Clinton's total of electoral college votes that could get her 64 more votes? Oregon (7 electoral college votes) is 7 points in Clinton's favor. Pennsylvania (20 votes) is 8 points in Clinton's favor. Wisconsin (10 votes) is 5.6 points in Clinton's favor. Michigan (16 votes) is 5 points in Clinton's favor. Virginia (13 points) is 5.3 points in Clinton's favor. Florida (29 votes) is 5.3 points in Clinton's favor. These are the purple states polling averaging 5 points or greater for Clinton. The total is comfortable for Clinton at 301. Polling in Clinton's favor at less than 5 points is Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina and Nevada. They total 45 electoral college votes.
Trump has a predicted 154 electoral college votes. The purple states in Trump's favor per RCP are Georgia, Missouri and Arizona. They total 37 votes.
Johnson must take blue states for the votes to fall below 270. None are out there for Governor Johnson to pick off according to all polls. He'll only pick off GOP states. So, there's no way to get Clinton below 270 unless Trump (or some other candidate) wins 270 or more electoral college votes. So, the author overlooked them as the odds are much worse.
16