Everything is far from fine. We are treading water for now. If we were smart, we'd be thinking about how in God's name we are going to keep Americans employed in the future, when the Census Bureau says there will be a lot more Americans and yet many common jobs today will be gone or almost gone.
51
According to a report from The Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce:
"Despite steady job growth, 'Six Million Missing Jobs: The Lingering Pain of the Great Recession' shows that the effects of the Great Recession are still with us in the form of 6.4 million jobs that were not created.
Three million of the missing jobs include college jobs.
The economy needs to add 205,000 jobs a month to recover the missing jobs by 2020."
https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/missingjobs/#full-report
"Despite steady job growth, 'Six Million Missing Jobs: The Lingering Pain of the Great Recession' shows that the effects of the Great Recession are still with us in the form of 6.4 million jobs that were not created.
Three million of the missing jobs include college jobs.
The economy needs to add 205,000 jobs a month to recover the missing jobs by 2020."
https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/missingjobs/#full-report
37
Analysis from the perspective of someone with a union job working for the nation's flagship newspaper. I'm sure that doesn't color his reading of the data.
For a different take, consider the employment history of the accused Dallas sniper, Micah Xavier Johnson. He trained and worked in construction with the Army Reserves. He sought civilian work in construction. Among the jobs he was able to get were managing a group distributing advertising fliers and, most recently, transporting mentally challenged children and adults to shopping and appointments.
Mr. Johnson's experience of the recovery is much closer to the reality of the working public than is Mr. Irwin's. I doubt that this working public shares Mr. Irwin's optimism.
For a different take, consider the employment history of the accused Dallas sniper, Micah Xavier Johnson. He trained and worked in construction with the Army Reserves. He sought civilian work in construction. Among the jobs he was able to get were managing a group distributing advertising fliers and, most recently, transporting mentally challenged children and adults to shopping and appointments.
Mr. Johnson's experience of the recovery is much closer to the reality of the working public than is Mr. Irwin's. I doubt that this working public shares Mr. Irwin's optimism.
110
Why don't all the whiners write their congressmen, especially the republican ones, and tell them to do the job they were hired for?
In 2010 republicans won the house with the promise they would focus on jobs.
Six years later, and more than 60 votes to undo Obamacare and they still can't pass infrastructure funding. Those jobs stay in the U.S.
If that weren't bad enough, it seems that everything they do is intended to further undermine the economy. Whining seems to be their biggest accomplishment.
In 2010 republicans won the house with the promise they would focus on jobs.
Six years later, and more than 60 votes to undo Obamacare and they still can't pass infrastructure funding. Those jobs stay in the U.S.
If that weren't bad enough, it seems that everything they do is intended to further undermine the economy. Whining seems to be their biggest accomplishment.
84
What about all the people working in the 'gig' economy? Are they counted in employment or unemployment statistics? NO! What about unpaid interns working as slave laborers? Are they counted in the employment or unemployment statistics? NO! The unemployment numbers are way too low if you include these independent workers who are growing at an incredible rate thanks to the 'gig' economy. Wake up America. The real unemployment in any given day is probably closer to 15% or more.
72
What the seesaw jobs numbers are really telling us is that they are rigged.
28
Not fine. There is no catalyst to accelerate growth and that is what is needed to pay for our expanding welfare state.
18
The job market is fine for college-educated people in healthcare and tech. They have professional careers. For those people who are not educated or who do not live in a metropolitan area that offers more job opportunity (which is a lot of America) then there is a huge problem. Companies are moving out of the country or states with the newly high minimum wage.
26
I wonder why people are arguing about is the "real" rate 5% or 6% or up to 9%, when the rest of the "first" world unemployment rates are often over 10% and up to 20% or more. The USA is doing great, just not as great as 50 years ago for white men, hence their anger at joining everyone else's ranks.
22
This comment baffles me. You seem to admit that the officially published unemployment rates are not accurately reflective, and then say "it could be worse." Almost a platitude.
21
It's a weird argument people have been using lately that people shouldn't complain unless their situation is the very worst in the world.
Politicians will continue serving only the connected (everywhere they can obfuscate) unless the rest of us raise a little ruckus.
Politicians will continue serving only the connected (everywhere they can obfuscate) unless the rest of us raise a little ruckus.
27
Statistics are very useful for us who are lucky to discuss the plight of those whom we don't know personally. Not very good when we are thinking about our own plight and the plight of our extended selves.
20
How could the job market be "just fine" with 18 to 20 million out of jobs. If hype is what makes the job market just fine we have an abundance of hype to feed our middle class.
53
Look at the full range of employment indicators: BLS unemployment rate, BLS payrolls, weekly jobless claims, the JOLT survey, Challenger layoffs, ADP payrolls, etc.
The job data is not mixed, they all point to full employment.
The labor force participation rate peaked in 1999 and is largely based on demographics.
The share of prime age workers in the workforce is declining not just in the US, but around the globe.
Immigration at all skill levels is a boon to the economy and helps support the increasing share of retired people in an aging population.
Full employment does not mean every person has a job who wants one, or has the job they want, and it never did mean that.
The JOLT survey, with nearly 6 million job openings unfilled, is at the highest level in history. That tells you the unemployment that remains is structural, not cyclical.
Monetary policy cannot fix structural unemployment.
It is a skills mis-match. Only fiscal policy can address this through vocational training and higher education.
Germany has very successful vocational and apprenticeship programs. We need them here, in addition to better access to higher education.
The job data is not mixed, they all point to full employment.
The labor force participation rate peaked in 1999 and is largely based on demographics.
The share of prime age workers in the workforce is declining not just in the US, but around the globe.
Immigration at all skill levels is a boon to the economy and helps support the increasing share of retired people in an aging population.
Full employment does not mean every person has a job who wants one, or has the job they want, and it never did mean that.
The JOLT survey, with nearly 6 million job openings unfilled, is at the highest level in history. That tells you the unemployment that remains is structural, not cyclical.
Monetary policy cannot fix structural unemployment.
It is a skills mis-match. Only fiscal policy can address this through vocational training and higher education.
Germany has very successful vocational and apprenticeship programs. We need them here, in addition to better access to higher education.
47
No, we need employers who will hire instead of farming out to China and India. There are plenty of educated people here. They're pulling shots at Starbucks while they wonder why they ever got their Masters in Engineering when the position went to a kid in the Third World who will do a passable but inferior version of the job for $5 an hour.
55
I disagree that our living standards are improving due to low inflation. The official inflation measure takes into account only consumption, not assets like houses or bonds. The price of assets has increased dramatically. But most people want to become homeowners or save for retirement, so higher asset prices mean that their expenditures are higher too. Perhaps people feel pressured despite rising nominal wages and low official inflation because they are having to use more of their nominal wages to achieve the same retirement income.
17
Through all the economic shape-shifting, one constant remains : when the #'s look good, the Republican line is that president has nothing to do with it; when they look bad, it's Obama's fault.
29
Funny because it's true, as the wise man said.
4
Usually, money may change hands but it doesn’t disappear.
4
Can someone explain to me why USA TODAY is reporting "Businesses see slight rebound, add 172,000 jobs in June." It's at odds with the data reported here. Are the 172,000 jobs a subset of the 287,000 added? I can't figure it out based on either article.
6
ADP estimated 172,000 new jobs in June. Maybe that is where Time got their number.
3
Neil,
We need more information. You have the power to coax more out of BLS. What we need to know is more information about those hired. Is it temporary work? Is it a gig as an uber driver, part-time sales, etc? What metro area and what industires are hiring? Then for the unemployed, we need to know a lot more?
Upshot is great but you need to go between the lines of the government reports.
We need more information. You have the power to coax more out of BLS. What we need to know is more information about those hired. Is it temporary work? Is it a gig as an uber driver, part-time sales, etc? What metro area and what industires are hiring? Then for the unemployed, we need to know a lot more?
Upshot is great but you need to go between the lines of the government reports.
19
6
The contingent worker survey is coming back in 2017 as part of the CPS. The House refused to fund it
5
Thank you.
1
While GDP has doubled wages have stagnated or declined. Where did all of that new wealth go?
23
It went to the very top. This started when the US became a service economy under Reagan.
28
Which is why Brexit might be the first in a line of disaffected voter rebellions. Man, I gotta read Piketty's "Capital," to get a grip on all this.
18
Hiring increases with an increase in unemployment, does that mean older better paid employees are being replaced with lower cost new hires?
22
After President Trump assumes his office in the White House, none of this will matter. Life on Earth as we know it will be over.
11
The FRB should consider the appropriate global monetary strategy going forward.
The US economy is the healthiest developed market economy in the world and far less sensitive to trade than most nations.
The Fed's mandate of full employment and price stability are met, yet it has lower effective real interest rates than the BOJ, ECB, or BOE (about -1.5% to quarterly annualized core PCE).
This has forced other central banks to adopt negative nominal rates using a "beggar-thy-nation" approach of currency depreciation, typically in crisis mode.
First and foremost, negative real interest rates are reducing the cost of production far more than they are stimulating aggregate demand.
One could argue they are undermining aggregate demand through a tax on money and savings, and marginal productive capacity is no longer constrained (by the 0% lower bound) to be in constructive endeavors.
Central banks are overly managing resource allocation by committee rather than market forces.
Economies will suffer the fate of all centrally managed economies - underperformance.
Post-Brexit, the BOE and the ECB have their hands tied.
The BOJ is dealing with massive unwanted strength in the yen.
If the Fed is to avert a chain of "beggar-thy-neighbor" monetary policies, it must do what only it can - begin the difficult but necessary process of rate normalization.
Otherwise, the world will sink into a quicksand of negative nominal and real interest rates and productivity with it.
The US economy is the healthiest developed market economy in the world and far less sensitive to trade than most nations.
The Fed's mandate of full employment and price stability are met, yet it has lower effective real interest rates than the BOJ, ECB, or BOE (about -1.5% to quarterly annualized core PCE).
This has forced other central banks to adopt negative nominal rates using a "beggar-thy-nation" approach of currency depreciation, typically in crisis mode.
First and foremost, negative real interest rates are reducing the cost of production far more than they are stimulating aggregate demand.
One could argue they are undermining aggregate demand through a tax on money and savings, and marginal productive capacity is no longer constrained (by the 0% lower bound) to be in constructive endeavors.
Central banks are overly managing resource allocation by committee rather than market forces.
Economies will suffer the fate of all centrally managed economies - underperformance.
Post-Brexit, the BOE and the ECB have their hands tied.
The BOJ is dealing with massive unwanted strength in the yen.
If the Fed is to avert a chain of "beggar-thy-neighbor" monetary policies, it must do what only it can - begin the difficult but necessary process of rate normalization.
Otherwise, the world will sink into a quicksand of negative nominal and real interest rates and productivity with it.
5
So much obfuscation in these articles about USA employment "gains."
Are these fulltime new jobs?
Are they skilled new jobs?
It would take little for any article on the topic to add that info.
Are these fulltime new jobs?
Are they skilled new jobs?
It would take little for any article on the topic to add that info.
38
It is a snapshot of employment at a point in time based on payroll data - it is not a census - it is also smoothed to get meaningful comparators.
What you want would be similar to asking you what you are doing right now and extrapolating that to being all you ever do.
What you want would be similar to asking you what you are doing right now and extrapolating that to being all you ever do.
6
SteveRR, that same payroll monthly data would indicate 35 hours a week or not because that monthly data **also indicates hourly wages paid.** So the data points are certainly there.
They just arent reported in articles written by the press for some reason, which was my point. These articles about unemployment seems to say very little substantive. Basically they are news blurbs.
They just arent reported in articles written by the press for some reason, which was my point. These articles about unemployment seems to say very little substantive. Basically they are news blurbs.
7
How many of these jobs are seasonal or temporary or part-time?
I will be hiring a very short-term pressure washer soon. I am a Raleigh homeowner.
It seems that these numbers varied too much between May and June. The article should explain critically how these were obtained.
Summer hospitality jobs would be hiring for the holidays and the the beaches.
I will be hiring a very short-term pressure washer soon. I am a Raleigh homeowner.
It seems that these numbers varied too much between May and June. The article should explain critically how these were obtained.
Summer hospitality jobs would be hiring for the holidays and the the beaches.
23
The unemployment figures do not account for millions of self-employed workers who don't have work or enough work. They aren't eligible for unemployment, so there is no record of their job situations. And many go for months without work or wait for months for payments for work already completed, while their clients take hone a steady bi-monthly check. So right there, the numbers are skewed.
The reports also don't account for the percentage of low-paying jobs--and those jobs could pay above the minimum wage but are still not enough to support individuals, let alone families.
They don't account for all the people who might have jobs but are now stuck with huge debts and no savings after the recession, so achieving some kind of financial equilibrium is impossible.
They don't account for the high costs of housing and healthcare and food. The main purpose of these reports is to give false hope to those who need work and better pay; to avoid frightening the remaining middle class; and to absolve the greedy from any responsibility.
Am I wrong? Is it a fluke that I now know more people who are still struggling after 8 years of disruption than I did 40 and 30 and 20 years ago? That the wages for solid jobs have not kept pace with living costs? That the "independent contractor" economy is rife with unethical, if not illegal, treatment of its workers? That the unemployment and social security offices in our largest cities have long waiting times & are understaffed?
The reports also don't account for the percentage of low-paying jobs--and those jobs could pay above the minimum wage but are still not enough to support individuals, let alone families.
They don't account for all the people who might have jobs but are now stuck with huge debts and no savings after the recession, so achieving some kind of financial equilibrium is impossible.
They don't account for the high costs of housing and healthcare and food. The main purpose of these reports is to give false hope to those who need work and better pay; to avoid frightening the remaining middle class; and to absolve the greedy from any responsibility.
Am I wrong? Is it a fluke that I now know more people who are still struggling after 8 years of disruption than I did 40 and 30 and 20 years ago? That the wages for solid jobs have not kept pace with living costs? That the "independent contractor" economy is rife with unethical, if not illegal, treatment of its workers? That the unemployment and social security offices in our largest cities have long waiting times & are understaffed?
95
I suggest you go to the BLS website and acquaint yourself with how they arrive at their employment numbers. Most of what you wrote is incorrect, you just don't read about the details in what the media reports. It is like stock watchers the just watch the DOW 100 to determine how the stock market is performing.
BLS collects reams of detailed data every month. There are table after table of this data displayed for your information and they have a database you can easily search to see specific trends.
BLS collects reams of detailed data every month. There are table after table of this data displayed for your information and they have a database you can easily search to see specific trends.
12
Thanks for the suggestion. When you say that “most” of what I said is incorrect, I’m not sure what you mean. Note that not all of the BLS information is for 2015-2016.
BLS figures for much of the self-employed economy are skewed or missing. It can’t accurately ascertain the hours people work or when or how often they are paid: In many jobs, the amount of time put in on a project isn’t the amount of time billed for it. People will under-charge rather than lose a client.
Of the 5 fields that I looked at, the wages--both hourly and yearly-- for 2 of them don’t provide an accurate representation. Also, those wages are "annual mean wages" and a note accompanying them says that "Annual wages have been calculated by multiplying the hourly mean wage by a "year-round, full-time" hours figure of 2,080 hours; for those occupations where there is not an hourly wage published, the annual wage has been directly calculated from the reported survey data." In other words, these numbers may not directly reflect what is actually happening.
In the area in which I work, the BLS reported hourly wages are questionable. They would have been accurate in the years 2004-2007, but they are not the standard wage being offered in 2016. While the BLS figures may be generally correct & useful, my main point in the above comment may still be valid--many people are not benefiting from this "low-employment" economy and the ground people lost might not be regained.
BLS figures for much of the self-employed economy are skewed or missing. It can’t accurately ascertain the hours people work or when or how often they are paid: In many jobs, the amount of time put in on a project isn’t the amount of time billed for it. People will under-charge rather than lose a client.
Of the 5 fields that I looked at, the wages--both hourly and yearly-- for 2 of them don’t provide an accurate representation. Also, those wages are "annual mean wages" and a note accompanying them says that "Annual wages have been calculated by multiplying the hourly mean wage by a "year-round, full-time" hours figure of 2,080 hours; for those occupations where there is not an hourly wage published, the annual wage has been directly calculated from the reported survey data." In other words, these numbers may not directly reflect what is actually happening.
In the area in which I work, the BLS reported hourly wages are questionable. They would have been accurate in the years 2004-2007, but they are not the standard wage being offered in 2016. While the BLS figures may be generally correct & useful, my main point in the above comment may still be valid--many people are not benefiting from this "low-employment" economy and the ground people lost might not be regained.
6
Here are some samples from the BLS site:
"Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the government uses the number of people collecting unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under state or federal government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed."
"Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information."
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
So, it is based on monthly survey data, not unemployment and other records. As the linked page says, it is based on a survey of 60,000 households which normally encompasses 110,000 people, so it is a very large population.
"Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the government uses the number of people collecting unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under state or federal government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed."
"Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information."
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
So, it is based on monthly survey data, not unemployment and other records. As the linked page says, it is based on a survey of 60,000 households which normally encompasses 110,000 people, so it is a very large population.
4
Again, the same questions. Are these good jobs that are paying decent wages, have good benefits, offer people the chance to learn new skills, advance, and have lives? If they are jobs in the service sector chances are they don't. If they are jobs in chain restaurants they are probably not paying enough to make ends meet for anyone. If they are contract jobs, temp jobs, or part of the gig economy these same jobs could vanish next month or in six months and leave the people ineligible for unemployment benefits.
If we want to have skilled employees in this country we need to stop telling people that they are completely on their own for training, that we can't find Americans to do the job (because there are plenty of us who still have an intellect and know how to learn), or that we'll pay only entry level wages for jobs that are not, despite their description, entry level jobs. What I see going on in America is the slow steady disintegration of a work ethic because it literally doesn't pay to do a good job, not when we know that we can be fired for no reason at all.
If we want to have skilled employees in this country we need to stop telling people that they are completely on their own for training, that we can't find Americans to do the job (because there are plenty of us who still have an intellect and know how to learn), or that we'll pay only entry level wages for jobs that are not, despite their description, entry level jobs. What I see going on in America is the slow steady disintegration of a work ethic because it literally doesn't pay to do a good job, not when we know that we can be fired for no reason at all.
74
A 44 year old who was laid off several times in his engineering profession decided to attend dental school and discovered that independent practicing dentists who were still trying to establish their practices had to return to dental school as faculty after the 2008 financial crisis. Neo-liberalism is dependent upon financial crises to extort borrowers for higher education, tenants, and the land lords who file for bankruptcy when their properties become vacant. Even high-income earning professional fields are over-saturated. A world war or plague killing off high percentages of population is history's lesson on what increases the value of labor, hence economic growth.
24
Perhaps it would have been smarter to research possible new career paths before choosing one.
3
What it is also telling us is that the American political economic system, disfunctional as it is, is working better than most of the rest of the world. Maybe not "great", but "best" works for me and my 401k. How many investors are rushing to put their money into those places with strong leaders that trump admires (Russia, North Korea, who knows where else) and whose people are desperately trying to get to Trumps not so great America?
9
Spare me, all of you. Where are the engineers, programmers, and IT people that we can't find. We have jobs here at my company that we can't fill because there are too many people without the right skill set. Education is the key, the right kind of education.
34
Start some apprenticeship programs; pay taxes so community colleges can hire instructors and offer low tuition. Capitalists are not supposed to whine. They are supposed to make solutions and offer opportunities. Be creative and purposeful.
113
This is part of the paradox of conservative thinking. Hold down taxes by starving the public education system and then become reliant on either outsourced jobs or imported talent. The engineering jobs I've held over my career were very diverse with immigrant engineers and scientists from Europe, Asia, Russia, Africa, and South America who left their home nations to get top ranked US graduate degrees and work for world leading companies while in our own back yard kids graduating from high school needed remedial math to get into freshmen STEM classes. Just think of what we could have accomplished at home with the billions of dollars wasted in the mountains of Afghanistan and the plains or Iraq over the last decade. We might even have been able to ameliorate the distress of communities that now are riven by racial conflict and violence. Instead we have hundreds of thousands of jobs that aren't being filled and similar numbers of people who are out of work becu as they lack the skills and/or can't get to the jobs
139
Then start paying taxes and stop expecting tax breaks for your company. Those breaks you want deprive children of a decent education. Stop complaining that you can't find people and set up apprenticeships. Quit whining that there are no Americans who want the jobs or that we have a lousy work ethic and look at what you do to make that work ethic disappear. As an employee I can name several ways my work ethic has been used against me or diminished by employers. See below.
Underpay me and expect me to be at your beck and call 24/7.
Tell me I'm salaried when I'm doing overtime but hourly if I need time off during the work day.
Tell me how you value me as an employee but treat my suggestions with complete disrespect.
Promote incompetent people.
Allow harassment to be the norm.
Don't acknowledge the hard work we all do.
Take credit for all the good stuff.
Lie to us.
Underpay me and expect me to be at your beck and call 24/7.
Tell me I'm salaried when I'm doing overtime but hourly if I need time off during the work day.
Tell me how you value me as an employee but treat my suggestions with complete disrespect.
Promote incompetent people.
Allow harassment to be the norm.
Don't acknowledge the hard work we all do.
Take credit for all the good stuff.
Lie to us.
121
Drill down a bit. More than half the new jobs were minimum wage. The labor force participation rate is stuck at Carter-era levels. We are barely in a recovery, let alone prosperity.
118
With more than chicken in every pot and more than two cars in every garage, yes, this is prosperity.
3
Edmund: According to the BLS, in 2015 about 870k workers were paid at US federal wage rate, about 3.3% of hourly workers, and under 2% of all workers. The percentage at minimum wage has declined over the last five years, so minimum wage jobs are less than 2% of new jobs added to the workforce. Your statement that half (50%) of new jobs are at minimum wage is laughably false.
How did RW propagandists come up with this number? They took turnover of about 5 million jobs per month, and estimated that about 2-3% of these jobs, or 100k-150k, are minimum wage. They then claimed that the turnover in minimum wage jobs was the same thing as "new jobs added". The real number of new minimum wage jobs added each month is about 7k, not 100k.
Next you claim that labor force participation rate is stuck at Carter-era levels. Look at LFPR for the core age group of civilians (to remove increase in retired population, changes in military personnel, and changing trends in younger peoples' education). The BLS shows LFPR for this core group was about 75% when Carter took office, rose to 84% during Clinton's second term (as women and minorities entered the workforce), and averaged about 82.8% over the period of 2002-2006, a period of relatively full employment not impacted much by economic boom/busts. Since then, the core LFPR declined to 81.2%, a drop of about 2 million jobs over the 12-year period. We add this many jobs every year, so you are focusing on a relatively insignificant trend.
How did RW propagandists come up with this number? They took turnover of about 5 million jobs per month, and estimated that about 2-3% of these jobs, or 100k-150k, are minimum wage. They then claimed that the turnover in minimum wage jobs was the same thing as "new jobs added". The real number of new minimum wage jobs added each month is about 7k, not 100k.
Next you claim that labor force participation rate is stuck at Carter-era levels. Look at LFPR for the core age group of civilians (to remove increase in retired population, changes in military personnel, and changing trends in younger peoples' education). The BLS shows LFPR for this core group was about 75% when Carter took office, rose to 84% during Clinton's second term (as women and minorities entered the workforce), and averaged about 82.8% over the period of 2002-2006, a period of relatively full employment not impacted much by economic boom/busts. Since then, the core LFPR declined to 81.2%, a drop of about 2 million jobs over the 12-year period. We add this many jobs every year, so you are focusing on a relatively insignificant trend.
5
No! No!! This means that the Fed will consider raising interest rates again!!!
5
There is a consistent theme in the media reports of the monthly jobs announcement. The number of jobs added seems always to be either unexpectedly higher or unexpectedly lower than what “analysts had predicted.” When was the last time that the experts’ predictions were anywhere near on target? Why are their predictions so consistently wrong? And, given their record, why are their prognostications taken seriously as a benchmark against which the actual numbers should be measured?
24
Political slant and self-service. Must we believe everything we read? Can we no longer read facts and draw our own conclusions? Should we not read the Times to get reliable facts on which we can draw our own conclusions, ignoring the "noise?"
Many "news sources" simply do not provide reliable facts, but provide "adjusted" facts disguised as news, if the information is even current. Many ideologues seem to prefer living in the past and digging up scapegoats, while many news consumers prefer looking ahead despite the conflicting opinions of others.
Many "news sources" simply do not provide reliable facts, but provide "adjusted" facts disguised as news, if the information is even current. Many ideologues seem to prefer living in the past and digging up scapegoats, while many news consumers prefer looking ahead despite the conflicting opinions of others.
2
The job market is fine, except that a whole generation of workers are permanently unemployed, due to obsolescence of their skills, deindustrialization, globalization, expensive benefits, entitlements, and aging. Hence Donald Trump. What are you going to do about this?
64
Uh, report and comment fairly honestly on the numbers they have, rather than militate for this or that political candidate?
16
Yeah, let's bring back collieries, sheep-herding and boot-blacks so people with professions that are largely extinct can stay off the public dole. When your skills are obsolescent for the job market you're obliged to learn other skills. Needless to say, that would involve government funding, and the Party of No isn't interested.
39
'What are you going to do about this' is an odd question, considering that he hasn't even been elected yet. Did you vote for him? I don't think so.
OK, then, what are YOU going to do about this? If you were referring to Trump, the obvious thing to do is to vote for the other candidate.
OK, then, what are YOU going to do about this? If you were referring to Trump, the obvious thing to do is to vote for the other candidate.
8
Excellent analysis, but please explain how a photo of a pastry assistant is supposed to contribute to my understanding. A picture may be worth a thousand words, but I'd like to see the editor who put this photo here use even half that many explaining why. Please cease this mindless process of putting irrelevant pictures into stories that just make reading and understanding more difficult!
18
I thought the photo of the pasty assistant was really interesting. It caused me to pause a long while and wonder how poor she is. How poor many of those returning to employment might be at the shabby wages many employers offer.
59
Lynn, I agree, I was also trying to figure out where in N.Y.C. an assistant pastry chef could afford to live , even with several room mates, but not to worry, after the convention the numbers will be revised downward to ensure the Fed is allowed to keep rates down and the party going for their Wall Street employers.
15
Wonderful! More burger-flippers and baristas. Oh, and more unemployed formerly "retired" people coming off the sidelines because they finally realized that they can't live off of Social Security and 0.1% fixed-income returns on their 401-K's. Sounds like a "Goldilocks" economy to me.
100
Anyone with a 0.1% fixed-income on their 401K is not paying attention. Except for 2008-09 I have gotten at least 5.25% on my 401K and that's being relatively conservative.
In 2010 I got 20-30%, I don't recall exactly, because of the recovery. Thus my losses in 2008-09 were returned.
401Ks are long-term investment vehicles and as such you need to invest in long-term strategies. Speak with a professional at an investment organization such as Vanguard or Fidelity.
In 2010 I got 20-30%, I don't recall exactly, because of the recovery. Thus my losses in 2008-09 were returned.
401Ks are long-term investment vehicles and as such you need to invest in long-term strategies. Speak with a professional at an investment organization such as Vanguard or Fidelity.
11
Well said, Joe. The people who got burned on their 401k's were the people who were just really unfortunate to be leaving the workforce right in that sweet spot of 2008-2009. Even then, their investments should have recovered to a great degree.
If they were counting on uninterrupted 15%-20% returns for 30-40 years, then not only don't have an understanding of economics and business cycles, they also can't even recognize what the markets have done in their own lifetimes.
People who got burned investments-wise (millions lost work) were people who were overleveraged in the housing market.
If they were counting on uninterrupted 15%-20% returns for 30-40 years, then not only don't have an understanding of economics and business cycles, they also can't even recognize what the markets have done in their own lifetimes.
People who got burned investments-wise (millions lost work) were people who were overleveraged in the housing market.
3
Some people can not be helped. Sounds like a job for Superman... or RCP.
It is not the Federal Government's responsibility to guarantee a job for everyone, only to make that opportunity possible. Fact is, there is more than enough money around for every citizen to have a shot at getting their share of it, and there are no laws that prevent exactly that from happening. Each day it becomes more obvious that any "Goldilocks" can become a millionaire. It takes some ambition, nothing more.
It is not the Federal Government's responsibility to guarantee a job for everyone, only to make that opportunity possible. Fact is, there is more than enough money around for every citizen to have a shot at getting their share of it, and there are no laws that prevent exactly that from happening. Each day it becomes more obvious that any "Goldilocks" can become a millionaire. It takes some ambition, nothing more.
2
It all depends on where you live. Here in the Northeast along the NH and ME coasts, try hiring a dishwasher if you run a restaurant (I've heard of high end restos paying $14 an hour for dishwashers.) You see "help wanted" signs all over, especially in seasonal occupations like landscaping and construction. The unemployment rate in NH is 2.6%, which is well below structural full employment (need a house painter in Portsmouth, NH? Get in line, maybe next year). If you want to work you easily can.
The big problem is a perceived lack of employment mobility, and Maine illustrates this. Portland and the southern seacoast has unemployment of 2.5%. Finding jobs is easy. Just up the coast a few hours the story is very different. Washington County has an unemployment rate of 5.6%, and a bit farther north it gets worse: Aroostook County's rate is over 6%. The conundrum is, why won't people move, even just a few hours away, to get a job?
The big problem is a perceived lack of employment mobility, and Maine illustrates this. Portland and the southern seacoast has unemployment of 2.5%. Finding jobs is easy. Just up the coast a few hours the story is very different. Washington County has an unemployment rate of 5.6%, and a bit farther north it gets worse: Aroostook County's rate is over 6%. The conundrum is, why won't people move, even just a few hours away, to get a job?
13
Its true I live in NY and see those dishwasher and we are hiring signs at restaurants.
1
Be careful what you wish for. In Seattle, which is in a virtual gold rush right now, unskilled people with no savings are moving to the city in search of employment. They find work, alright, but it's minimum wage work. They also find high rents that they can't begin to afford. The result is an ever growing homeless problem. The better off live in RVs and cars. The underclass winds up in gruesome tent encampments under the freeways.
45
Dishwasher's an interesting example. It will often pay better than assistant sous chef because it is a hard position to fill -- requires skill and tremendous stamina. It's not that people don't want to be dishwashers; it's that very few can handle it.
18
Thank goodness the unemployment numbers are lagging indicators, not leading indicators. I would sure hate to be one of those depending upon unemployment as a predictor of the future. As it is, far too many people tend to do so.
3
When I read that full time jobs are aplenty, and those underemployed workers and the long term unemployed are finding decent work i.e. 40 hours a week and some decent benefits I'll concede the job market is fine. Until then sell that story to someone else, cause I'm not buying it.