So the Clinton Campaign today announces a donation to a women's prison association. This kind of politicking I do not agree with. A huge line has been crossed. Another divide.
It just isn't correct that a Trump victory would put him in an extremely strong position. The error here is that you aren't accounting for the extreme size of the field and the corresponding migration of candidates as the field narrows. Look at the numbers. Cruz and Rubio are the second choice of most voters, and most voters who aren't for Trump are strongly against him, as evidenced by his high unfavorable numbers. When everyone other than Trump/Rubio/Cruz drops out, almost all of those votes are going to Rubio and Cruz. Trump cannot expand his support past about a third of the electorate since those who aren't already for him are mostly against him. Because Trump has little chance to broaden his appeal beyond his existing supporters, he's in an extremely weak position even with victories in IA and NH. He's basically reliant on both Cruz and Rubio to stay in the race until the end and split the rest of the vote such that Trump/Rubio/Cruz each get about a third.
2
There is no news here, folks. The news will be tonight or tomorrow morning after the votes are tallied. All this prognosticating and handicapping is meaningless, and only serves to enhance the perception of the campaign as a horse race. So many complain about the lack of substance in the discussion and coverage of the issues, while at the same time encouraging it in a way by accepting the media circus at face value. To see this kind of fluff in the "esteemed" NY Times is especially disheartening. For God's sake, we're electing a President here, not getting ready for the Super Bowl. Wake up, before it's too late, if it's not already.
5
Voters of any age, religion, race can understand this about HRC, and it's breathtaking … don't have to be young or old, merely sentient, to grasp the serious implications … http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/01/30/clinton-system-donor-machine-201...
4
Raymond,
I took the liberty of selecting an excerpt from the article, and posting it, see below.
Mainstream media has gone to extraordinary lengths, to prevent the truth seeing the light of day.
Its shocking, and tells us that if elected, Hillary will be an almost full time employee of Goldman Sachs, and numerous other investment banks, plus various foreign powers, including Saudi Arabia.
Excerpt and link -
"There are the direct payments to Hillary Clinton’s political campaigns, including for the Senate in 2000 and for the presidency in 2008 and now in 2016, which had reached a total of $712.4 million as of September 30, 2015, the most recent figures compiled by Open Secrets. Four of the top five sources of these funds are major banks: Citigroup Inc, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Morgan Stanley. The Clinton campaign meanwhile has set a goal of raising $1 billion for her Super PAC for the 2016 election.
Finally there is the nearly $2 billion that donors have contributed to the Clinton Foundation and its satellite organizations since Bill Clinton left office."
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/01/30/clinton-system-donor-machine-201...
I took the liberty of selecting an excerpt from the article, and posting it, see below.
Mainstream media has gone to extraordinary lengths, to prevent the truth seeing the light of day.
Its shocking, and tells us that if elected, Hillary will be an almost full time employee of Goldman Sachs, and numerous other investment banks, plus various foreign powers, including Saudi Arabia.
Excerpt and link -
"There are the direct payments to Hillary Clinton’s political campaigns, including for the Senate in 2000 and for the presidency in 2008 and now in 2016, which had reached a total of $712.4 million as of September 30, 2015, the most recent figures compiled by Open Secrets. Four of the top five sources of these funds are major banks: Citigroup Inc, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Morgan Stanley. The Clinton campaign meanwhile has set a goal of raising $1 billion for her Super PAC for the 2016 election.
Finally there is the nearly $2 billion that donors have contributed to the Clinton Foundation and its satellite organizations since Bill Clinton left office."
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/01/30/clinton-system-donor-machine-201...
3
Trump wins by coming in first. O.k., as many Iowans have pointed out - they don't have a great history picking Presidents.
So Donald, the glory is all yours.
So Donald, the glory is all yours.
If anger triumphs in this election campaign we will almost immediately lose the best that we have and the worst will be entrenched for the foreseeable future. The Best we have includes: Obamacare, the Iran deal which may not work out but is still intact as the best thing to happen in the middle East in a long time, international agreements on the environment, Social Security and Medicare as we have known them for decades. The worst that will be entrenched include: big money politics, corporate power and privilege, special interest lobbying as a dominant interest in our politics, gross inequality of income and wealth, an unjust tax system, a decaying infrastructure.
1
And a full scale assault on women't reproductive rights.
1
@Daniel Hudson: Perhaps we need for anger to triumph, just to get rid of the entrenched corruption we have in the government now. When governing becomes that bad, how can you blame the people for being angry?
Your list - Obamacare, the Iran deal - are top examples of the bad.
Your list - Obamacare, the Iran deal - are top examples of the bad.
Trump wins by coming in first, Rubio wins by coming in a strong third and Cruz finishes a weak second. That will be the headline from the R side, from the D side, I see Sanders pulling out a big win.
5
From your lips to God's ears.
Donald Trump should urge all Iowa Trump supporters to bring to their caucus a copy (or better yet, and original) of the following nefarious mailer Cruz mailed out in Iowa and explain during caucus the vile nature of this mailer, including the fact that the "grades" are fraudulent because SecState Iowa does not record caucus attendance, as well as the overtly threatening nature of this mailer that concludes with the threat that: "A follow-up notice may be issued following Monday's caucuses":
http://i.imgur.com/K062mBh.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/K062mBh.jpg
2
I wonder to what extent undecided, non-Iowa primary voters decide on a candidate specifically NOT selected by Iowans. Surely, many Americans do not see themselves fitting the profile of their perception of a "typical" Iowa voter; and perception is everything.
This report offers a cogent notion about why the GOP has become so anti-knowledge, anti-research, anti-science and anti-education. All these things contribute to critical thinking and open minds,which are the bane of GOP success.
The Republican Party is smart enough to try keeping everyone else stupid. Rick Santorum, at least, was honest enough to call President Obama "What a snob!" for promoting universal access to higher education several years back.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
The Republican Party is smart enough to try keeping everyone else stupid. Rick Santorum, at least, was honest enough to call President Obama "What a snob!" for promoting universal access to higher education several years back.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
7
Primaries are funny. When both parties have close contests, and the challenger in Iowa (Sanders, Trump) is way ahead in New Hampshire, it doesn't really matter who wins in Iowa, or even how close the squeaker was.
Hopefully, all the people of Iowa will stay home tonight and provide the rest of the country with some entertainment.
Hopefully, all the people of Iowa will stay home tonight and provide the rest of the country with some entertainment.
Iowa is not at all indicative of the views/population of the rest of the nation. And its caucuses have been notoriously off in recent cycles (Santorum, Huckabee). So WHY the media feeding frenzy about interpreting the "results"?
How about a little MORE stress on analyzing candidates' avowed positions on issues--and the implications of these?
How about a little MORE stress on analyzing candidates' avowed positions on issues--and the implications of these?
4
Seeing the relief on the faces of the locals that many out-of-staters leave, so they can concentrate of life not politics.
1
Why are poor people so excited with the prospects of neoliberals sending their kids off to go die in meaningless wars?
Please, please, please, for my generation, make this one count.
Please, please, please, for my generation, make this one count.
2
Who is the one talking about "carpet bombing"?
4
Mr. Cohn,
You pointed out that Iowans of Dutch ancestry tend to be very conservative and very Republican. You did not mention that the Dutch Reformed Church (Calvinist) tradition plays a role in this. Iowans of Dutch ancestry tend to attend one of the Dutch Reformed churches, such as the Christian Reformed Church. While their mission statements do not read as very conservative, in practice their members tend to be. This is particularly true in the northwest corner of the state, in the towns of Hull and Orange City, both of which are dominated by Iowans of Dutch ancestry and Dutch Reformed churches. Hull even has a Christian (read Dutch Reformed) high school.
Historically these church goers are in the Calvinist tradition, which normally is not rabidly conservative in politics. But Iowans of Dutch ancestry and the Dutch Reformed churches seem to embrace the most extreme conservative political stances of the evangelical community as a whole. Bob Vander Plaats is an example. He went to the Christian high school in Hull, by the way. I am not sure why these church goers are so extremely conservative politically.
You pointed out that Iowans of Dutch ancestry tend to be very conservative and very Republican. You did not mention that the Dutch Reformed Church (Calvinist) tradition plays a role in this. Iowans of Dutch ancestry tend to attend one of the Dutch Reformed churches, such as the Christian Reformed Church. While their mission statements do not read as very conservative, in practice their members tend to be. This is particularly true in the northwest corner of the state, in the towns of Hull and Orange City, both of which are dominated by Iowans of Dutch ancestry and Dutch Reformed churches. Hull even has a Christian (read Dutch Reformed) high school.
Historically these church goers are in the Calvinist tradition, which normally is not rabidly conservative in politics. But Iowans of Dutch ancestry and the Dutch Reformed churches seem to embrace the most extreme conservative political stances of the evangelical community as a whole. Bob Vander Plaats is an example. He went to the Christian high school in Hull, by the way. I am not sure why these church goers are so extremely conservative politically.
4
Pilgrims and Puritans.
4
What even the most prestigious news organizations do not tell audiences is that merely a very tiny fraction of total delegates for both parties are selected in Iowa and New Hampshire--rightly so, since of the total US population of about 330 million, Iowa has merely about 3 million and New Hampshire about 1,5 million.
Instead of hyping the alleged importance of selecting a tiny number of delegates in demographically unrepresentative, tiny states the media ought to point to the small stakes in those states. The caucuses in Iowa and the primary in New Hampshire are important only because the media make believe that they are.
For the low number of delegates the candidates fight for tonight and then in New Hampshire, see,
http://www.reflectivepundit.com/reflectivepundit/2016/02/the-iowa-caucus...
Instead of hyping the alleged importance of selecting a tiny number of delegates in demographically unrepresentative, tiny states the media ought to point to the small stakes in those states. The caucuses in Iowa and the primary in New Hampshire are important only because the media make believe that they are.
For the low number of delegates the candidates fight for tonight and then in New Hampshire, see,
http://www.reflectivepundit.com/reflectivepundit/2016/02/the-iowa-caucus...
4
Most important -- what are they wearing?
2
I've lived in Iowa for nearly 40 years. Not by choice, mind you. It's one of the most backward and sad places in the country. I got stuck here after an accident with a threshing machine, and I've been unable to get enough money together to leave.
What I've seen in my four decades here is people who get most of their news from CNN or FOX going out to support candidates they have no real idea of. Because CNN and FOX are simply mouthpieces of the government, the citizens in Iowa, most of whom are on the lower end of the IQ chart to begin with, head out and waste their time (not that they do anything meaningful with it anyway) in the cold stumping for people they trust because of a handshake or a nice smile.
It's sickening. It's Iowa.
What I've seen in my four decades here is people who get most of their news from CNN or FOX going out to support candidates they have no real idea of. Because CNN and FOX are simply mouthpieces of the government, the citizens in Iowa, most of whom are on the lower end of the IQ chart to begin with, head out and waste their time (not that they do anything meaningful with it anyway) in the cold stumping for people they trust because of a handshake or a nice smile.
It's sickening. It's Iowa.
10
The privacy of the voting booth is not a good place for lawyered-up, double-speak like: "What the meaning of is is."
Oh please you live in Canada!
Should Clinton win the presidency (a big if) the office will be immobilized by anti -Clinton attacks. For whatever reasons, Clinton is a negativity magnet. Trump/Cruz will be worse. Sage voters will choose Sanders as the Aristotelian mean between the extremes.
13
@Haitch76: No, Sanders is the Gaussian extreme.
3
They haven't even started on Sanders yet, as they don't consider him worth the time and effort of attacking. But should it (God forbid) happen that he wins the nomination, then the Republicans - whichever one - will tear him to shreds and win the White House, no doubt about it.
1
Sorry to say, it matters very little who wins tonight. The caucuses only give us a baseline.
Nevertheless, enjoy your night Iowa. The P and F buses (pander and forget buses) are heading out of state starting at about 6am tomorrow. Candidates will quickly forget their backers in Iowa as they start pandering to another crowd. Thankfully, with ample video footage, the media and voters have plenty of material to judge each candidate's character and sometime contradictory message.
Nevertheless, enjoy your night Iowa. The P and F buses (pander and forget buses) are heading out of state starting at about 6am tomorrow. Candidates will quickly forget their backers in Iowa as they start pandering to another crowd. Thankfully, with ample video footage, the media and voters have plenty of material to judge each candidate's character and sometime contradictory message.
8
There might be upset for Democrats Nominee but Donald J. Trump will win for sure in Iowa because of his focused and scientifically run election campaign.
1
No, Dr. Burq,
Trump will win Iowa because too many Americans gravitate toward loudmouths.
Trump will win Iowa because too many Americans gravitate toward loudmouths.
9
Democratic Socialism are not obscene four letter words America's wealthiest would have everyone believe.
Bernie's biggest challenge will be to get people to do the math.
Bernie's biggest challenge will be to get people to do the math.
11
Yes, and when people do the math, Bernie will not be supported.
2
Senator Sanders will prove all the pundits wrong when he defeats HRC (and the DNC elite) in the Iowa caucus this evening. Can't wait to see their expressions when they lose. Go Bernie!
16
Watching Hillary, and her handlers, and reading the Times with its unbridled support of her was something else, these last few weeks; Pure entertainment. I could clearly see the fear in all their faces, in every word they spoke, as they sought relentlessly, with no success whatsoever, to sideline Mr. Sanders, the gentleman from Vermont.
Mr. Sanders is like a clean fresh breeze, from the Northern Kingdom, gathering strength as it approaches Washington, dispersing the smog that the long ruling elites have tried to choke us with.
February 1, 2016, the day America changed its future.
Mr. Sanders is like a clean fresh breeze, from the Northern Kingdom, gathering strength as it approaches Washington, dispersing the smog that the long ruling elites have tried to choke us with.
February 1, 2016, the day America changed its future.
10
No. Not even close. Any support for Sanders is handing the general election to the Republicans - they took it by underhanded and so far unprosecuted means in 2000, but a vote for Sanders is a vote for the Republicans. And it is really immature to pretend to celebrate a woman losing to a man in any election - get real. We need more women in government, not more men.
3
The challenge with Sanders is, there is no way his proposals can come to fruition w/out Congress going very (not just a little) Blue and major tax reform (flat tax)... both not likely to happen.
5
A Democrat here ... set to vote for HRC no matter what and rooting for her tonight so we are not sidelined for months with talk of a repeat of 2008 even though this is a very different race for her.
Still it will be most interesting tonight to see whether or not the Trump phenomenon actually translates into actual votes. I am one of many who ... for years ... laughed at the prospect of a Trump candidacy. Then the events of last summer and fall led me to believe that he actually had a shot at the nomination but NO WAY of actually winning the presidency in a general election. Now I am not so sure. The man's ability to grab the media by choke hold in a nation made up of so many pop-culture fanatics is indeed something to be reckoned with. If we see Trump victories tonight and next Tuesday I fear the worst. Not only will this mean that the Trump phenom is real, but the same media so drawn to him these past six months will now go full-throttle HAYWIRE! If this is indeed the case I fear no one else will get any attention at all ... on either side.
Our obsession with pop culture ... something that has always irked me ... now terrifies me.
My hope is that Trump comes in at least second. I fear the only thing that could possibly shake him at this point is him being labeled a "loser" even if by a fraction of a percentage point. His "winner" persona is what makes Trump ... well, Trump & that identity should suffer a massive hit in any scenario where he doesn't land an outright win.
Still it will be most interesting tonight to see whether or not the Trump phenomenon actually translates into actual votes. I am one of many who ... for years ... laughed at the prospect of a Trump candidacy. Then the events of last summer and fall led me to believe that he actually had a shot at the nomination but NO WAY of actually winning the presidency in a general election. Now I am not so sure. The man's ability to grab the media by choke hold in a nation made up of so many pop-culture fanatics is indeed something to be reckoned with. If we see Trump victories tonight and next Tuesday I fear the worst. Not only will this mean that the Trump phenom is real, but the same media so drawn to him these past six months will now go full-throttle HAYWIRE! If this is indeed the case I fear no one else will get any attention at all ... on either side.
Our obsession with pop culture ... something that has always irked me ... now terrifies me.
My hope is that Trump comes in at least second. I fear the only thing that could possibly shake him at this point is him being labeled a "loser" even if by a fraction of a percentage point. His "winner" persona is what makes Trump ... well, Trump & that identity should suffer a massive hit in any scenario where he doesn't land an outright win.
3
Because Super Bowl is right around the corner, my mind apparently remains stuck in playoff mode. Because when I'm trying to digest the 24/7 prognosticating about the presidential contest my brain keeps flipping back to football. It's becoming increasingly harder to differentiate between the two. Like in football the presidential playoffs boil down to a couple of teams, the red team and the blue team and of course there are players representing each teams. And like football, the players are described by the prognosticators in terms of their weaknesses and strengths, the nature of their game plan, their various strategies for winning (like pandering to the miffed, the misfits, and the evangelicals). Also, who's likely to get the most touchdowns or sacked and finally who's predicated to come home with the trophy. When considering the two contests side by side and especially the craziness of this particular presidential one, I opt for the more "honest" and straightforward of the two, the one that uses literal as opposed to figurative balls.
2
Hopefully the least concussed will be victorious.
2
Steve, Good point! It took a minute but that's a good way of looking at it. An important requirement.
1
Perhaps someone can convince a right-wing think tank to research the reasons why college educated people tend to vote for Democrats (with rates increasing substantially with increased levels of education). Then again, I suppose there is evidence that they already did that study and the GOP knows exactly where its fortunes lie...
17
Because uneducated people are less likely to read between the lines, fact check, temporarily walk in the shoes of those they disagree with. As much slack as liberal colleges get for coddling students with PC-ness nowadays, the objective of higher education is to get you to think outside the box and put your preconceptions up to be intellectually challenged, to value logic and reasoning over emotion.
12
Here we go again, more class warfare. I guess mford of ATL would prefer that only college educated people should be allowed to vote. After all, they are so much better informed and consequently their opinions and candidates must be the right choice for America. What bunk.
We have also seen that uneducated people, more often than anyone else, will vote against their self-interest.
8
Funny, I don't see the Bernie/Hillary match as a circus.
To me, Sanders is giving my voice a chance to be heard in this country. When I support Sanders, I'm supporting my views to the White House. That's not a game.
The Republicans? Now that we strip the decorum from their image, what do we see? A bunch of clowns! (As though McCain's VP choice, Palin, was not clown enough!) So that IS a circus.
To me, Sanders is giving my voice a chance to be heard in this country. When I support Sanders, I'm supporting my views to the White House. That's not a game.
The Republicans? Now that we strip the decorum from their image, what do we see? A bunch of clowns! (As though McCain's VP choice, Palin, was not clown enough!) So that IS a circus.
23
Donald Trump Will Lose Iowa
His supporters will argue fuss and fight in the Iowa caucuses and not vote enough to let him win.
Rand Paul will likely win, if not Ted Cruz.
But Trump will react badly and show he has not the temperament to be a commander in chief of the world's greatest military force.
This will resound in New Hampshire and I expect a desperate 'the Donald' to faux pas his way to another loss in the Granite State.
At that point, all bets are off in South Carolina and a loss there would reduce Mr. Trump to the level of... The Apprentice.
ChipShirley.Com
His supporters will argue fuss and fight in the Iowa caucuses and not vote enough to let him win.
Rand Paul will likely win, if not Ted Cruz.
But Trump will react badly and show he has not the temperament to be a commander in chief of the world's greatest military force.
This will resound in New Hampshire and I expect a desperate 'the Donald' to faux pas his way to another loss in the Granite State.
At that point, all bets are off in South Carolina and a loss there would reduce Mr. Trump to the level of... The Apprentice.
ChipShirley.Com
2
Likely he'll claim victory, no matter what happens! See "The Art of the Fail" in Politico
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trumps-art-of-the-...
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trumps-art-of-the-...
2
In this story Thr Times cited results of two polls it says are not well regarded.
If a poll is not well regarded, why would The Times talk about what it shows? Isn't that like citing a source you don't trust? As a general rule, I have noticed the media have been very loose in their use and reporting of polling data. I suppose this reflects a yearning for some sort of order in such a disorderly election.
If a poll is not well regarded, why would The Times talk about what it shows? Isn't that like citing a source you don't trust? As a general rule, I have noticed the media have been very loose in their use and reporting of polling data. I suppose this reflects a yearning for some sort of order in such a disorderly election.
8
Why would do you object to being provided additional information when it is accompanied by an appropriate caveat? Those two survey's published conclusions are facts, whether they valid or not. Their reputations for unreliability are opinions, whether they are correct or not. The Times is trusting its readers to decide for themselves whether to consider or discard the surveys' conclusions. I like that.
I am fiercely critical when dissident surveys, research, accusations, boasts, and other assertions are not reported by media because they are controversial. For example, data, research, experts and additional context (e.g., "Curveball's" unreliability) that contradicted the Bush administration went unreported by the major media because it was controversial. The public was led into war through cultivated ignorance of crucial information.
I am fiercely critical when dissident surveys, research, accusations, boasts, and other assertions are not reported by media because they are controversial. For example, data, research, experts and additional context (e.g., "Curveball's" unreliability) that contradicted the Bush administration went unreported by the major media because it was controversial. The public was led into war through cultivated ignorance of crucial information.
Had a similar reaction-- to write that neither is highly regarded, but then not say why, by whom, or even identify the pollsters was sloppy!
Note: with response rates running as low 9% -- in recent years, 9-20% rates are typical--people can't be bothered to reply when they' do been bothered or screen out the pollstwrs' calls-- the results, even from the mostly highly respected polls, are based upon extrapolations, often incredibly inaccurate ones!
To write that Clinton leads Sandwrs by 3 point when they at smack dab within the LARGE margin of error is to mislead. They are tied, but the %s are a fiction of modeling!
Note: with response rates running as low 9% -- in recent years, 9-20% rates are typical--people can't be bothered to reply when they' do been bothered or screen out the pollstwrs' calls-- the results, even from the mostly highly respected polls, are based upon extrapolations, often incredibly inaccurate ones!
To write that Clinton leads Sandwrs by 3 point when they at smack dab within the LARGE margin of error is to mislead. They are tied, but the %s are a fiction of modeling!
2
The press is trying to be "fair and balanced" by including all polls. A poll with a very poor track record (i.e., proven unreliable) ought to be excluded from discussion....
Do we know that untrusted sources are not cited? I suspect they are... as long as the story is juicy.
Do we know that untrusted sources are not cited? I suspect they are... as long as the story is juicy.
Does Iowa (or any caucus state) hold electronic caucuses? My understanding is that in Iowa the caucuses occur at night, and now there's a snow storm approaching. Wouldn't e voting or caucusing using skype or net meeting be a useful option?
1
Can't wait to see who joins the likes of President Santorum and President Huckabee.
2
The Father, The Son and the Holy Ghost.
2
President Obama?
Iowa is one of fifty states- nothing more. It has its own idiosyncracies driven primarily by Christian Evangelism and their inability to separate church and state, but the Iowa Caucuses are not a portender of anything more than how Iowa may vote. It is a media circus and we have had a steady diet of circus acts passing as politics since August. February 2 can't come fast enough...oh wait, and then there will be NH ..
6
Here's what to watch for in Iowa:
Watch Trump grin and gloat tonight after his good day. Watch him wave his scepter like the Wicked Witch her broom. And watch him, with unprecedented schizo-fury, lambast his "inferior" rivals.
Then keep watching, because by the end of Super Tuesday, this Bombast will be history -- or, better yet, he'll actually make it to the Republican National Convention, which he'll promptly make a SHAMBLES.
Ah, it's so good to be a Democrat!
Watch Trump grin and gloat tonight after his good day. Watch him wave his scepter like the Wicked Witch her broom. And watch him, with unprecedented schizo-fury, lambast his "inferior" rivals.
Then keep watching, because by the end of Super Tuesday, this Bombast will be history -- or, better yet, he'll actually make it to the Republican National Convention, which he'll promptly make a SHAMBLES.
Ah, it's so good to be a Democrat!
7
If you were not good, you would be a Republican.
2
Accurately said, my good man, Been There!
With The Times endorsement of Clinton and the page space given to the investment banking crowd such as Rattner, Schwartzman, Icahn, Weill and Summers I am more convinced than ever that what I have for sixty years considered to be the best and most balanced paper in the world has been co opted by the Wall Street money behind Hillary, if further evidence was needed George Soros just tossed her another six million, the Banksters must be very afraid of Bernie. I doubt this will get past the censors as the last few days have shown that any negative facts pertaining to Hillary have been banned from these pages and the attempt to demonstrate her unelectability to the office of President due to the simple fact that people don't like or trust her have been met with the same stonewalling, but here I go again BERNIE 2016!
23
You can learn a great deal about Sanders by following his supporters on social media. For instance I can guess if he should become president and his policies collapse the economy or Putin invades Poland, Sanders' supporters will all light a candle thinking that it will help as opposed to actually rolling up your sleeves and doing something.
OR, perhaps it is all the wars the U.S. has been involved in over the years and the Trillions spent that could have been better spent actually improving the lives of the American people. Unlike yourself who seems to think it is better to be in a perennial state of conflict, where it has not done any good anyway, in fact, made things worse, Sanders and his supporters finally understand that just maybe it is time to change that policy.
2
No "maybe" about it; tonight marks the beginning of a new power in America; the power of the people, speaking with one voice, as they support Bernie, all the way to the Inauguration, and beyond, for two terms.
As another comment opined - "Its good to be a Democrat"
As another comment opined - "Its good to be a Democrat"
4
This piece does a solid job of delineating historical fault lines. But there's no telling when anger will overcome reason, or the reverse. Voting in a crowd as you do in a caucus versus that solitary moment in a private booth adds many variables to the mix.
This much I do know, Iowans: when you cast your vote you, as we all should do, need to envision your candidate in the Oval Office and what that person will really be like when he/she gets there. Most politicians never end up delivering what they promise on the campaign trail nor did they ever think they would.
This much I do know, Iowans: when you cast your vote you, as we all should do, need to envision your candidate in the Oval Office and what that person will really be like when he/she gets there. Most politicians never end up delivering what they promise on the campaign trail nor did they ever think they would.
1
"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public."
H.L. Mencken
Nobody ever won an election underestimating the power of fear, hate and ignorance.
P.J. Goebbels
H.L. Mencken
Nobody ever won an election underestimating the power of fear, hate and ignorance.
P.J. Goebbels
3
Wake up folks don't you get it by now the corporate msm is going to force there candidate onto this country. Then another thing folks your votes are absolute worthless now a days. It is the electoral college who decides who wins not the low man on the totem pole. That is one thing American candidates never talk about is getting rid of the electoral college then you will have a real democracy.
9
It does not matter who wins if congress decides to say NO. Does anyone really think congress will take any rubbish from Trump? Will they treat Hillary any better than they did Bill or Obama? Are they really going to approve universal health care or free college?
This billion dollar dog and pony show for president is useless unless WE The People can get congress on with business of governing.
This billion dollar dog and pony show for president is useless unless WE The People can get congress on with business of governing.
6
I'm an Iowa Democrat and I have gone to every presidential caucus that didn't involve a sitting Democratic president since 1988. I'm 1 for 5 in supporting the eventual nominee (Clinton 92). I live in an urban area. Attendees aren't "wackos" although some are passionate. They are my neighbors and it is a great place to meet people who live outside of my immediate neighborhood and whose views are close to my own. It's no party, but it tends to be a friendly affair.
This time I am supporting Sanders because unlike any candidate from either party in that he has been true to his principles ever since he got into public life. I am well aware that he isn't going to storm Washington and pass single payer healthcare or universal college tuition over a republican congress. I believe he will take a principled stand on what best serves most Americans based on what is right for the country as opposed to what brings in the campaign contributions. He has over the course of his career demonstrated that he is capable of working pragmatically with the opposing party. He has a solid record of legislative success.
This time I am supporting Sanders because unlike any candidate from either party in that he has been true to his principles ever since he got into public life. I am well aware that he isn't going to storm Washington and pass single payer healthcare or universal college tuition over a republican congress. I believe he will take a principled stand on what best serves most Americans based on what is right for the country as opposed to what brings in the campaign contributions. He has over the course of his career demonstrated that he is capable of working pragmatically with the opposing party. He has a solid record of legislative success.
69
From your mouth to your fellow Dems ears.
6
If Sanders had committed to the Democratic Party when he was first elected to Congress, he would have risen by seniority to one or more important committee chairmanships where he could have molded legislation.
2
Nobody accomplishes much acting alone.
2
Thank goodness the day has finally come!
It seemed like the preceding 12 months would never end. Now we can finally start to watch the fall out begin.
It seemed like the preceding 12 months would never end. Now we can finally start to watch the fall out begin.
11
By fallout you mean Trump victory after Trump victory after Trump victory!
Yes!
I can't wait either.
Yes!
I can't wait either.
1
Boy! You can almost smell the flop sweat coming off the mainstream media and the party establishments. Let's see what have we got in the headlines so far "Vulgar, Mean, Classified and Zany: A Look At the Race So Far", "Oddball Iowa", "How Stupid is Iowa?" etc... etc.. We get it. You are terrified of the potential results and want to minimise the impact. We get it. Now the question is what if the electorate still doesn't want to do what it's told when we get to the larger and more diverse states. What happens then?
26
"I welcome their hatred." -FDR
4
FDR, what a wonderful President he was.
Mr. Sanders is almost his reincarnation, and a sure bet to win Iowa, and the election.
Can't wait.
Mr. Sanders is almost his reincarnation, and a sure bet to win Iowa, and the election.
Can't wait.
Oh thank God it will be over in 24 hours!
Then, pack up the circus and move on to the next stop and set it up all over again.
When our country turns its elections into the Greatest Show On Earth, is it any wonder the one with the big head of red hair is the star.
And why people wonder incredulously how Trump can be the leader? Because the stage this country built and set for itself, demands it.
Then, pack up the circus and move on to the next stop and set it up all over again.
When our country turns its elections into the Greatest Show On Earth, is it any wonder the one with the big head of red hair is the star.
And why people wonder incredulously how Trump can be the leader? Because the stage this country built and set for itself, demands it.
7
orange is the new black!
Has anyone else noticed that Marco Rubio has done an excellent job of lowering expectations so that "a strong third-place finish" is all he needs to claim victory? Trump, Cruz and Rubio are the only viable Republicans campaigning in Iowa. Rubio is going to finish last in a three-man race. The press will allow Rubio's campaign to spin that by finishing ahead of Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, he's a winner.
11
I wish Rubio eternal bliss in the presence of the God he created in his own image.
6
Yeah, we can all see through the emperor's new clothes.
4
Yes, but there's a good reason why. Rubio knows that as long as he remains in the top three and is well ahead of everyone other than Trump and Cruz, once candidates start to drop out, he has a great chance to pick up most of their former supporters. Most won't go to Trump; he's fairly unfavorable amongst people who aren't already supporting him. This is an election where you have to look below the surface and see that while Trump's ahead, he has no way to gain supporters. Most peoples' second choice is Rubio or Cruz. Once people start dropping out, there will be something like 36% to divvy up amongst Trump/Cruz/Rubio. Few of those 36% have a favorable view of Trump. Let's assume Cruz and Rubio split them equally. Nationally, that would mean we'd be at Trump 39%/Cruz 33%/Rubio 28%. The only thing that would result in a Trump victory is if Cruz and Rubio stay in the race to the end, but that's unlikely. They know if they both stay in Trump would win. At some point the game of chicken ends and either Cruz or Rubio (whoever's left) has 61% to Trump's 39%. That's Trump's central problem. 39% isn't enough to win. Look at the past winners going back to 1988:
Romney 52%
McCain 47%
Obama 51%
Kerry 61%
Bush 62%
Gore 75%
Dole 59%
Clinton 52%
Bush 68%
Dukakis 42%
Trump has to gain the supporters of candidates who drop out to win. That's going to be a struggle since most prefer Cruz/Rubio. He also has to hope Cruz and Rubio stay in until the end.
Romney 52%
McCain 47%
Obama 51%
Kerry 61%
Bush 62%
Gore 75%
Dole 59%
Clinton 52%
Bush 68%
Dukakis 42%
Trump has to gain the supporters of candidates who drop out to win. That's going to be a struggle since most prefer Cruz/Rubio. He also has to hope Cruz and Rubio stay in until the end.
C'mon Iowa, give Bernie a shot!
I know you're sensible people and root for the working person by bringing fairness back to the market, the statehouses and congress so Bernie's your guy.
This request is coming from a former neighboring son of Central Illinois.
It's in your hands first, Iowa!
Bernie 2016!
I know you're sensible people and root for the working person by bringing fairness back to the market, the statehouses and congress so Bernie's your guy.
This request is coming from a former neighboring son of Central Illinois.
It's in your hands first, Iowa!
Bernie 2016!
87
Sorry, but you are talking to yourself. Those folks don't read the NYT.
Jeez Carlie, I can't be talking to myself; after all, you responded!
So with a little luck maybe one or two in Iowa will stumble across my humble appeal.
So with a little luck maybe one or two in Iowa will stumble across my humble appeal.
7
We are on the same side here.
How can anyone predict a revolution?
22
in ww1 russia, it sure looked promising
americans arent as miserable as russian serfs were, yet
but its coming, sooner than you might think
americans arent as miserable as russian serfs were, yet
but its coming, sooner than you might think
1
The same way we try to predict everything else.
Twain: That guy would even bet you which of two birds would fly off from the fence first.
We really can't, but we still keep trying anyway. Must be in the DNA.
Twain: That guy would even bet you which of two birds would fly off from the fence first.
We really can't, but we still keep trying anyway. Must be in the DNA.
Bernie's been strong, but getting hoarse. Would be wonderful to see it all be worth it. Thinking the young people are telling us something we need to listen to this time.
27
I'll watch the weather in the western part of the state. I hope the state Democrats go with reality and vote for Hillary Clinton. The sooner this primary is over the quicker the party can turn its attention to getting a Democratic majority in the Senate and a bump in House membership. Bernie is starting to cost us those elections. It is no wonder only two congressmen and no Senators have endorsed his campaign. They do not want to campaign on raising the middle class taxes, no matter what the reason. They would like Hillary at the top of the ticket and you should too!
10
Oh, Joe, from your mouth to God's ears!
3
Totally agree. His ideas are better in theory but not reality. It will never work what he proposes. Hillary is the strongest. I hope voters do the right thing.
I just don't know why Iowa has to be a the front of this. Not a very diverse population.
I just don't know why Iowa has to be a the front of this. Not a very diverse population.
Bernie will excite the base and bring a large general election turn out. The Clinon meme that she is more electable is factually incorrect.
Bernie and a Democratic wave or Hillary with a Republican Congress. If you want real change we need coat tails down ticket.
Republican Lite Goldwater Girl Hillary needs to go home and enjoy her retirement.
#notreadyforhillary
Bernie and a Democratic wave or Hillary with a Republican Congress. If you want real change we need coat tails down ticket.
Republican Lite Goldwater Girl Hillary needs to go home and enjoy her retirement.
#notreadyforhillary
4
A long article that, like the paper's endorsement of Kasich manages to not only avoid any mention of Rand Paul but also of his father's 2012 showing in Iowa which (not that you would know it from the article) was effectively a tie between Romney, Santorum with Ron Paul marginally (about 2%) behind in the caucus vote.
Yet it was Paul who ended up winning the bulk of the delegates (22) with Romney gaining 6 and Santorum zero despite having won (by a few hundred votes) a plurality.
Rand this time has a solid ground game in both Iowa and NH - though little money and even less recognition from the MSM. I hope it pays off for him.
Is he a marginal candidate? Maybe, but then again so was Trump until after a few months of having his name mentioned about every fifteen minutes on every media outlet under the sun...
Unlike interest rates I don't think NYT's credibility and relevance can be pushed into negative territory, but it won't be for lack of trying.
Yet it was Paul who ended up winning the bulk of the delegates (22) with Romney gaining 6 and Santorum zero despite having won (by a few hundred votes) a plurality.
Rand this time has a solid ground game in both Iowa and NH - though little money and even less recognition from the MSM. I hope it pays off for him.
Is he a marginal candidate? Maybe, but then again so was Trump until after a few months of having his name mentioned about every fifteen minutes on every media outlet under the sun...
Unlike interest rates I don't think NYT's credibility and relevance can be pushed into negative territory, but it won't be for lack of trying.
3
While this is a much better analysis of the Iowa voting electorate than is usually seen ("There are college-educated persons in Iowa? Who knew!"), it does understate the libertarian vote. Ron Paul did indeed win the majority of the delegates, which is rarely mentioned on the Republican side, as there is a contest for delegates following the paper ballot that many persons do not stay for. A lot of these voters were independents who switched to Republican the night of the caucuses and therefore were not picked up by the polls. We'll see if Rand Paul can get some of that vote again tonight.
Ground game is going to decide the Democratic contest.
By the way, in Iowa you can register & vote on Election Day. There will be unrolled new voters participating tonight that do not show up in any poll.
Sanders grass roots vs Clinton Astro-turf. Game on.
By the way, in Iowa you can register & vote on Election Day. There will be unrolled new voters participating tonight that do not show up in any poll.
Sanders grass roots vs Clinton Astro-turf. Game on.
34
Excellent analysis of the Iowa data. Looking at the Democratic caucus, remember that when President Obama first swept the Iowa caucus meetings, these meetings were held about a month earlier when college students were home and able to help organize on the local level throughout the state. Right now in Iowa, the spring semester is underway, and there's a blizzard coming tomorrow (not good driving weather if you have to be back in class on Wednesday). But, setting these technical factors aside, Hillary will win anyway. Iowans are looking for experience, good judgment, and the will and ability to accomplish things that matter.
1
Correction: The MAJORITY of Bernie's supporters are older. While many are over age 50, alot of 60- 70- and 80- somethings are Bernie supporters. I have been canvassing door to door near the driftless region of Iowa for the past several weeks. I am tired of reading the media disinformation that Bernie supporters are young. At least 50% are older! And we all know that older people vote.
Also, its going to be sunny in Iowa today, no snow until after midnight.
Good weather = a large turnout= Bernie wins.
Mother Nature Feels the Bern :-)
Also, its going to be sunny in Iowa today, no snow until after midnight.
Good weather = a large turnout= Bernie wins.
Mother Nature Feels the Bern :-)
76
I could kiss you for canvassing in Iowa for Bernie! Thank you!!!
1
Watch for the beginning of The Trump Presidency. This is going to be awesome!!!
2
Well, I hope Sanders wins of course. But beware the NYT gambit on behalf of Clinton. There is so much news focus on Iowa that it may seem to some that the decision for nomination is over then and there. Because there is such a strong set of distinctions that divide Sanders (on the Left) from Clinton (on the Center), this will be a very long process, involving ups and downs for sac -- all the way to the convention. Clinton's nightmare: if she were to eke out the nomination, Sanders running as a third party candidate to her Left. She would never be elected.
19
That would certainly suggest that Bernie is really just a spoiler for the right wing.
Yes, and if you blow hard enough, the Sun will go out.
There's about as much chance of that happening as there is of Sanders running a third party campaign and handing the election to a Republican. Sanders knows exactly what a Trump or a Cruz in the White House would mean for our country, apparently quite a bit more than you do.
There's about as much chance of that happening as there is of Sanders running a third party campaign and handing the election to a Republican. Sanders knows exactly what a Trump or a Cruz in the White House would mean for our country, apparently quite a bit more than you do.
2
HRC is not a centrist. She is a time-tested progressive with enough professional experience to know that in a divided political atmosphere absolutely nothing will get done ... especially for progressive causes ... if there isn't sausage making and a little give and take.
I know it sounds trite, but change does not happen overnight. And in any country in which I would want to live no single politician will ever get everything they want.
I know it sounds trite, but change does not happen overnight. And in any country in which I would want to live no single politician will ever get everything they want.
2
Would be helpful to indicate large cities on these maps, or at least add a map with population ranges. Otherwise they don't mean much.
7
Iowa is "important" in the electoral process for one reason. The first dollar saved toward the goal of becoming a millionaire is important, too. But is it so much more valuable than the last dollar that puts you over the goal?
2
Psychologically, it's vastly more valuable. Campaigns are won on momentum. It's a popularity contest after all and the majority of people follow who's popular, who they've heard most about, and who their own social circle supports.
6
Well, it's important because it will be the very first time when we see the difference between what people *say* they will do and what they actually do. It's where they separate the wheat from the chaff, or since it's Iowa, the corn from the husk.
We ought to be looking at who received the most money and from whom: news today…George Soros gave - hold your breath - 6 million to The Hillary Brand's® Super-PAC…a mere 6 mil. Chump change for the multi-billionaire, and a great way to guarantee the candidate of "the average American" gets, wins, receives, buys, whatever, the most votes. Okay, okay - there is no voting going on, it's just a friendly neighborhood gathering for politically active, like-minded people. And in 1000 locations around the state, Iowans have to devote an hour or so of their evenings to the process.
So it's not a vote, but somehow Iowans "vote" and how can anyone tell who exactly gets the most of whatever it is they are getting - if it's not a vote. And we are to believe that The Brand® has a lead over Bernie - a lead that doesn't include votes, but some ephemeral neighborhood groove that someone more astute than I could tell that Hillary IS the leader. Somehow.
One thing we do know - she has the biggest bankroll in the entire charade of what is probably the worst "friendly neighborhood gathering of politically-active, like-minded people" that we have ever had…
So it's not a vote, but somehow Iowans "vote" and how can anyone tell who exactly gets the most of whatever it is they are getting - if it's not a vote. And we are to believe that The Brand® has a lead over Bernie - a lead that doesn't include votes, but some ephemeral neighborhood groove that someone more astute than I could tell that Hillary IS the leader. Somehow.
One thing we do know - she has the biggest bankroll in the entire charade of what is probably the worst "friendly neighborhood gathering of politically-active, like-minded people" that we have ever had…
10
Yes, when compared to the $400 million spent by the Koch AstroTurfing operation in 2015, Soros is a piker.
10
If I had a billion or two to throw around, you better believe I'd pick the sane one, who stays bought. It isn't any of the Republicans; it is HRC.
2
I just finished Jane Mayer's book, Dark Money, about the Koch's, and it should be required reading for every voter. They have corrupted the political process. (They and SCOTUS)
1
What I'm looking for is for it to be over, and the idiocy to be damped down. I'm sure I speak for many when I say that what happens in Iowa has no effect on my voting decision. None.
37
True, and no effect on my overall preferences either, but Iowa and New Hampshire could well affect the range of choices we've got...
11
Whatever happens in Iowa today we must realize that Iowa is only one of fifty states. Too bad so many Republican voters in Iowa don't see Trump as the buffoon he really is and Cruz as one of the least Christian of so called "Evangelical" Christians. Jesus would have a hard time believing anyone as mean-spirited as Mr Cruz could be one of His followers.
30
All true. Not only is Iowa one of 50 states, it is highly unrepresentative of most areas of the country that are centered around large metropolitan areas and are much more ethnically diverse.
Problem is the media. Iowa is first and therefore the results of tonight's contests will be spun throughout the entire election process and, if in any way game-changing, for decades to come as is the Obama 2008 breakthrough.
Small state ... big stuff.
Problem is the media. Iowa is first and therefore the results of tonight's contests will be spun throughout the entire election process and, if in any way game-changing, for decades to come as is the Obama 2008 breakthrough.
Small state ... big stuff.
1
Small state, small stuff. There's a long way to go after this, God help us. Iowa farmers political views have nothing to do with the rest of USA, regardless of what media shove down our throats. Nothing. Zero.
1
Kind of sad knowing that tomorrow, for the first time in months, the front page will not show a photo of a presidential candidate meeting with evangelicals or eating a pork chop on a stick.
14
Only 20% of the eligible voters will attend the Iowa caucus. I vote every election but will have second thoughts being stuck in a room mingling around in groups at a caucus. But some people probably love it and go just to mingle around in groups. You will have the hardline candidate supporters, the people who just love a caucus, and the fringed wacko's attending. I can see why most stay home.
3
Behold Trump’s all or nothing, no holds barred reckless fling at self destruction and dragging his immediate world down with him with a despotic and utter disregard of them as individuals … what an amazing spectacle! How is this possible? It’s possible because of the glaring incompetence and dangerousness of each and every GOP candidate. A Trump candidacy could well win the Presidency, the Senate, and maybe even the House for the Democrats. Even districts that are 55% GOP might not be safe with Trump leading the ticket.
5
Sounds like you could be talking about Cruz, Rubio, Carsen or anyone else in that insane clown posse the red-wing has going. Not one common sense, rock-ribbed Republican among them. Just panderers and blowhards.
15
It's possible because over half the Republican electorate in Iowa believe the earth was created in six days. And on the 7th day he rested.
Of course they have no idea what he has been doing since he rested.
Of course they have no idea what he has been doing since he rested.
5
from your lips to G-d's ears
The nonstop efforts of people who believe in magic to force faith based legislation onto everyone else just reinforces my belief that these people are comprehensively dishonest and delusional, and a clear and present danger to constitutional governance of the US.
41
Yes, the evangelicals march to a different drummer than we do! Let's hope the tide toward Bernie is rising and the rationalists take charge!
1
Polls are a type of social science research. And as such, they have an interesting side-effect. Though they try to predict, their results may also end up (unpredictably) changing behavior. As people's choices are based, not just on their personal instincts or preferences, but also on the apparent preferences of others. This is another important thing to keep in mind tonight.
As we parse the returns, we might ask ourselves about the predictive value of the polling. Can we trust them this year? Will even the gold-standard poll be accurate? If not, then what role role are the polls playing? And how do we, as voters, want their influence playing such a big role? Because, right or wrong, they do play a role.
I honestly think we need to consider their influence. Just as we are considering the influence of Citizens United. So, how much are polls influencing votes?
Depending on what happens, both the outcome of the caucuses & primaries as well as polls going forward, will have outsize effects on the final results. As one by one voters make choices. And candidates continue on or drop out.
Always keep in mind that ANY social science research is not necessarily predictive of the future. It can only give a snap-shot of the past. That snap-shot is only as good as its sample, its questions, even its questioners, and the statistical methods used in deriving its results. Plus, once those results become public, the public's behavior adjusts - in unpredictable ways.
As we parse the returns, we might ask ourselves about the predictive value of the polling. Can we trust them this year? Will even the gold-standard poll be accurate? If not, then what role role are the polls playing? And how do we, as voters, want their influence playing such a big role? Because, right or wrong, they do play a role.
I honestly think we need to consider their influence. Just as we are considering the influence of Citizens United. So, how much are polls influencing votes?
Depending on what happens, both the outcome of the caucuses & primaries as well as polls going forward, will have outsize effects on the final results. As one by one voters make choices. And candidates continue on or drop out.
Always keep in mind that ANY social science research is not necessarily predictive of the future. It can only give a snap-shot of the past. That snap-shot is only as good as its sample, its questions, even its questioners, and the statistical methods used in deriving its results. Plus, once those results become public, the public's behavior adjusts - in unpredictable ways.
9
The $400 million spent on AstroTurfing by the Koch operation in 2015 is all directed at leading people by manipulating polls.
1
Polls are so bad now in this hyper mobile, privacy deprived era, that only aggregators with sophisticated and honed models have a shot at predictive success.
That is why AstroTurfing here keeps anonymous people from nowhere so busy spamming it.
Why would anyone under 60 in the digital age sit around for hours listening to political speeches and playing parlor games in order to cast their vote? Only 3% of Iowans are Black. Their main concern is ethanol and farm subsidies. Tell me why the Iowa caucuses are a necessary part of electing a president ? The primary system is a media run farce that needs to be reformed.
61
Google your question for all sorts of answers.
2
Big media needs to be reined in and regulated just like our banking system.
1
If Sanders pulls to within a couple of points of Hillary in Iowa--having come from nowhere--then wins New Hampshire big, this will only be a "loss" in the minds of horse-race analysts, many of them none to keen on a Sanders candidacy. But not only does Sanders poll better against Trump--who threatens to steal a collapsing segment of the right-leaning white lower middle class constituents who have been her backbone--he speaks to the issues that Trump's followers are angry about: economic inequality and injustice. Trump speaks to those issues as populist demagogue; Bernie seeks to change the underlying conditions that give rise to them.
64
The challenge w/ Sanders' proposals is it would take Congress going very Blue and a major tax reform (flat tax); both not likely to happen.
8
We can't keep holding our noses and voting forever. At some point we must stand for what we believe.
1
More likely with Sanders than without him. He's a canary in the coal mine. If he can win, he can pull the Senate blue. If he can't pull the Senate blue, than no one could right now. It's Sanders or bust for change.
2
To all Bernie supporters: Can we please be true liberals and use Reason to base political arguments? Instead of mimicking Republicans and using propaganda that is rooted on anger and fear?
All liberals agree, to one extent or another, that government has a critical role in strengthening society. Equitable health care, education and a social safety net are best implemented by government or non-profits.
But history has shown time and again that governments can become inefficient, if not corrupt and oppressing. I, for one, enjoy hearing Sanders' arguments, but I am not convinced that the plans for distant future control of the legislature can be realized. In other words, what he is proposing is ultimately populist because it can not be implemented, and even if it did, it would divide the country and would drive it to Puerto Rico-like financial distress. If you want to argue this, you will need to give me historical examples and $ numbers.
If you realize the forces behind the anti-Clinton propaganda, and reject it for what it is, you should be able to see an ambitious, but very capable woman whose political heart is at right place.
All liberals agree, to one extent or another, that government has a critical role in strengthening society. Equitable health care, education and a social safety net are best implemented by government or non-profits.
But history has shown time and again that governments can become inefficient, if not corrupt and oppressing. I, for one, enjoy hearing Sanders' arguments, but I am not convinced that the plans for distant future control of the legislature can be realized. In other words, what he is proposing is ultimately populist because it can not be implemented, and even if it did, it would divide the country and would drive it to Puerto Rico-like financial distress. If you want to argue this, you will need to give me historical examples and $ numbers.
If you realize the forces behind the anti-Clinton propaganda, and reject it for what it is, you should be able to see an ambitious, but very capable woman whose political heart is at right place.
33
I know you think you're reaching out to Bernie supporters.
But you are calling us irrational. Claiming that everything Sanders and his supporters want is impossible. And demanding proof that it is otherwise.
Then stating that information that does not support Clinton is propaganda.
This is not going to build bridges.
But you are calling us irrational. Claiming that everything Sanders and his supporters want is impossible. And demanding proof that it is otherwise.
Then stating that information that does not support Clinton is propaganda.
This is not going to build bridges.
49
What Bernie is proposing is nothing more what already is being successfully accomplished by many less wealthy countries.
13
I see Goldman Sachs. I see subpeonas. I see four more years just like the last 8, at best. I see no hope and no change with HRC.
10
It's surprising that no one is looking at the real prize: It isn't who wins the primaries and caucuses. It's who can win the presidency.
Can Hillary Clinton beat a Republican nominee in the general election? According to the poll numbers, no. Can Sanders? According to the poll numbers, yes. What happens if the polls continue in this trend for week after week, month after month, with Clinton becoming less likely to win the election and Sanders becoming more likely?
It will be ironic indeed if the Clinton supporters, who have always chanted that you have to be "practical" and vote "pragmatically" and pick a candidate who can win, push out the Democrats only chance of winning in 2016.
Can Hillary Clinton beat a Republican nominee in the general election? According to the poll numbers, no. Can Sanders? According to the poll numbers, yes. What happens if the polls continue in this trend for week after week, month after month, with Clinton becoming less likely to win the election and Sanders becoming more likely?
It will be ironic indeed if the Clinton supporters, who have always chanted that you have to be "practical" and vote "pragmatically" and pick a candidate who can win, push out the Democrats only chance of winning in 2016.
94
Your answer would be different if you look at who historically won in Iowa and their outcome in the general election.
1
Not my point CG. My point is that right now, the polls indicate that Clinton cannot win against a Republican in the general election. I posit that if that continues to be the case -- I don't state that it will be the case, just that it's a possibility which in the inevitable Hillaryverse is not being even considered -- Clinton will not/can not/does not win the presidency, and that's the only thing that matters: who wins the presidency. And going by the polls, right now, she doesn't win the presidency, but Sanders does.
As they said to Luke Skywalker: Stay on target.
As they said to Luke Skywalker: Stay on target.
8
While I respect Bernie Sanders enormously (and love many of his proposals), he cannot win the General Election. First, the Republicans have not yet focused any attention on him. But, if he is the Democratic candidate, they certainly will. Calling him repeatedly a 'socialist' is not going to help him in the general election. The conservatives fear Clinton a lot more than Sanders.
Second, perhaps you aren't old enough to remember, but three times in my lifetime the Democrats have put up a very liberal candidate only to see him beaten badly in the general election (Humphrey in 1968; McGovern in 1972; and Dukakis in 1986). In each case, the Republicans won an overwhelming majority and pushed out of Congress a lot of reasonable Democrats. While the progressive wing of the Democratic Party uses the primaries to express their wishes, in the general election those wishes are not widespread.
Personally, I am glad Sanders ran because he brought progressive issues into the campaign and pushed Hillary Clinton to the left. But, it would be a political disaster for the Democrats if Sanders is the nominee. The Democrats need to be realistic and disciplined in this election. If the Republicans win back the White House, you can say goodbye to many pieces of legislation that were passed by the Obama administration (the ACA, Dodd-Frank, the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, stopping the deportation of 'Dreamers'). I hope Democrats understand that.
Second, perhaps you aren't old enough to remember, but three times in my lifetime the Democrats have put up a very liberal candidate only to see him beaten badly in the general election (Humphrey in 1968; McGovern in 1972; and Dukakis in 1986). In each case, the Republicans won an overwhelming majority and pushed out of Congress a lot of reasonable Democrats. While the progressive wing of the Democratic Party uses the primaries to express their wishes, in the general election those wishes are not widespread.
Personally, I am glad Sanders ran because he brought progressive issues into the campaign and pushed Hillary Clinton to the left. But, it would be a political disaster for the Democrats if Sanders is the nominee. The Democrats need to be realistic and disciplined in this election. If the Republicans win back the White House, you can say goodbye to many pieces of legislation that were passed by the Obama administration (the ACA, Dodd-Frank, the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, stopping the deportation of 'Dreamers'). I hope Democrats understand that.
2
I hope that voters will look beyond their own immediate interests in casting a vote today in Iowa! If the fate of the free world rests in the hands of a pompous, wealthy, ignorant, xenophobic, self-promoting entrepreneur, I cannot imagine how this could possibly help them or anyone else in the long run. It is important to remember that the US and the world are complicated places, with a long history. It is a reality show with more than 7 billion actors! A Manichaean worldview will fail in the complex geopolitical world of 2015. What the country needs is a competent, level-headed, intelligent, experienced president who recognizes that national security must be balanced with protections of Constitutional rights. We are a melting pot (or, if you prefer, a patchwork quilt), like it or not, and this is our strength, not our weakness. Left or right, Iowa voters will do well to keep this in mind as they debate in their caucasus today.
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Not a single Republican cares a whit about the general well being of our country, much less the general population of Iowa. They care about money, political power, sex, and their own wealth building. They are willing to do anything, say anything to secure their personal positions.
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18 United States Code 2071 - Concealment, removal, or mutilation generally
(a) Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 3 years, or both.
(b) Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 3 years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term "office" does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.
Attorney General do your job that you're getting paid so well to do. clinton belongs in jail!!!! she is not above the law.
(a) Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 3 years, or both.
(b) Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 3 years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term "office" does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.
Attorney General do your job that you're getting paid so well to do. clinton belongs in jail!!!! she is not above the law.
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She did none of those things. Thanks for the verification.
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Bush and Cheney first.
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