An astute observation. The Mets sign Cepedes long term at their own peril. Their pitching is still what they're all about. This team's experience winning is not to be underestimated. A good hitter with some power would be nice, but not if you have to give away the strore.
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"Caution", yes but all of the other big free agent outfielders are gone. Span might have been a better fit and Heyward is a superior player but both have been signed for bigger dollars than the parsimonious Wilpons would pay. Not signing Cespedes leaves a young player (he's little more than a rookie) in LF and a CF who has trouble against right handed pitching. Cespedes is right-handed protection in a lineup that has two big left-handed bats in Duda and Granderson (this is especially important with Wright's back issue). Cespedes might not have been the best pick in November but he's the best pick today.
You nailed it, Tyler. Cespedes is a good, not great player. He is a fine corner outfielder, but a below average centerfielder, defensively. But the Mets have a young stud in LF and a solid vet in RF. A team built around pitching should not betray that pitching with poor defense at a key position. And the back end of a long term contract will be ugly. He doesn't walk. When his bat speed slips a bit and some of those HRs become warning track flyouts, someone will be stuck with an expensive player who no longer hits for average and has only mediocre power. He had a great 6 weeks, but the Mets don't need him going forward.
cespedes is also a first rate prima donna. imagine the first itme he fails to run out a pop-up that ends up dropping in a no man's land, or opts to not backup one of his corner outfielders, or makes a bizarre defensive decision (see: weird backhanded stab in deep left center in an early, crucial world series game), or somehow otherwise burnishes his aloof, me, me, me reputation ... tough to swallow paying $20+ mil per for that stuff. the a's, bosox & tigers all sent him packing ... there's got to be a reason.
Armchair GMs as below always give me a laugh. "Offer him $85 million for five years with descending order of payments."
Well, multiple sources, including NYTimes, have the Nats offering him a minimum of $100 million for five years.
Of coursne, Cespedes would establish residency in low-tax Virginia, much lower income tax than NY state. PLUS, because of power of Virginia and Maryland lawmakers, DC can't impost its city income tax on non-DC residents, as you pure slaves of NJ and Conn must pay.
That has to be an additional $10 million right there.
So, you think he'll sign for $25 million or more less to play for the Mets, and their gentle, forgiving fans????? The privilege of playing in Queens???
Well, multiple sources, including NYTimes, have the Nats offering him a minimum of $100 million for five years.
Of coursne, Cespedes would establish residency in low-tax Virginia, much lower income tax than NY state. PLUS, because of power of Virginia and Maryland lawmakers, DC can't impost its city income tax on non-DC residents, as you pure slaves of NJ and Conn must pay.
That has to be an additional $10 million right there.
So, you think he'll sign for $25 million or more less to play for the Mets, and their gentle, forgiving fans????? The privilege of playing in Queens???
For what it's worth, my view is that the Mets would be much better with Yoenis than without him. Unlike the others folks Tyler mentions (Bonilla, Coleman, Vaughn etc), Cespedes has played in NY for the Mets - in the pressure of a pennant race and succeeded. Yes, his post season did not quite match his August - but what could? Lagares had a great 2014 - but he seemed to have hit a wall in 2015. I am not sure he is the everyday CF the Mets need. If I was Fred Wilpon, I would go for it.
Let's put it this way: if the Mets are skeptical about Cespedes, they're hardly alone. There's a reason he's still on the market in late January, long after players like Heyward and Gordon have gotten deals. Just as there is a reason he's already played for 4 teams in 4 years.
But a three year deal? If Ces would really consider that, I think a lot of teams will be interested including my SF Giants.
But a three year deal? If Ces would really consider that, I think a lot of teams will be interested including my SF Giants.
Good grief, the Mets need Cespedes, really, really need Cespedes. Pitching may be enough in the playoffs, but not through the regular season. Without Cespedes the Mets were an average team.
Yes, I do remember.
Yes, I do remember.
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Without Cespedes, Conforto, Wright, D'Arnaud, Johnson, and Uribe the Mets were an average team. FTFY
right on tyler.
but ces for a year just might get the mets a 30th year anniversary ring...
but ces for a year just might get the mets a 30th year anniversary ring...
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Here's a few things I'm tired of hearing:
1) The Mets need to have a bigger payroll. (Because the fans "deserve" it.) If you haven't figured out by now that a bigger payroll doesn't translate to winning, you haven't been paying attention. Highly paid free agents (read the article) rarely pay off.
2) Cespedes is crucial to the Mets success. I bet you can sum up the Mets' attitude to Cespedes in one sentence: "He'll never do it again."
3) Murphy. Same sentence.
4) They should sign all their young pitchers to long-term deals. Bad bet. Pitchers tend to fall apart nowadays. Use 'em up while you have them, then let them go. You'll probably be win in the long run. Sorry, players, that's the downside of free agency: the team has no real incentive to care about you long term.
1) The Mets need to have a bigger payroll. (Because the fans "deserve" it.) If you haven't figured out by now that a bigger payroll doesn't translate to winning, you haven't been paying attention. Highly paid free agents (read the article) rarely pay off.
2) Cespedes is crucial to the Mets success. I bet you can sum up the Mets' attitude to Cespedes in one sentence: "He'll never do it again."
3) Murphy. Same sentence.
4) They should sign all their young pitchers to long-term deals. Bad bet. Pitchers tend to fall apart nowadays. Use 'em up while you have them, then let them go. You'll probably be win in the long run. Sorry, players, that's the downside of free agency: the team has no real incentive to care about you long term.
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The Mets need to bring Cespedes back in 2016 to remain competitive for a championship they came so close to getting last year. Their offense needs a right handed power bat to compliment the lefty power they have from Granderson, Duda and Conforto. Wright and d’Arnaud aren’t going to be enough. With the exception of Harvey & Familia (who become a free agents in 2019) the Mets young players (deGrom, Syndergard, Matz, Wheeler, Flores, and d’Arnaud) don’t become FA’s until 2020 or after. 2020 is also the last year of Wright’s contract so he’ll be off the books, as well as Granderson and Bastrado in 2018. We can commit a 4 year deal to Cespedes (front loaded similar to Wright’s.) Something like 2016: 22.5M, 2017: 21.5M, 2018: 21M, and 2019: 15M, and then add a 5th year club option of 20M, with a 5M buyout. We’d be guaranteeing Cespedes 85M over 5 years with the potential to earn 100M over the 5. This way in 2020 when the majority of our young players become FA eligible we can only commit 5M to Cespedes, and let him go. This guarantees him in our lineup, while we still have all of our young pitchers under control. Meaning the Mets should be in contention for a championship for each of the next 4 years barring any major setbacks.
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I like the "we." Like it's your money. (And don't tell me about many tickets you buy.) Baseball is a business whose business is to pretend it isn't a business. As soon as you say "we," they win, you lose. I've been a Mets fan for over 50 years. But I always say "they."
Three years for $66M ($22M a year) with an opt out after the second year. It's not only the Baseball factors, but the PR factors (no billboards) as well.
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Given the financial constraints Alderson works under - which clearly have been loosened somewhat - he's done fine. The infield is better and Flores is available to play 3rd base if and when Wright breaks down - which will be an issue until they eat some salary and trade him to an American League team. They're paying more to all their arbitration-eligible players this year. We'll see how good Conforto is the second time around the league. Maybe Nimmo will be ready by the summer too.
Cespedes had a career two months - all power to him. But that's a lot of money, better used to acquire pieces, as they've been doing. And they'll have money to rent a player in July if they see something good.
Cespedes had a career two months - all power to him. But that's a lot of money, better used to acquire pieces, as they've been doing. And they'll have money to rent a player in July if they see something good.
The Cespedes issue is (mostly) a red herring. The issue is that the Wilpons cannot afford to own and operate the Mets as their fans and the NYC market deserve. It may well be smart to pass on Cespedes (there's probably a reason that such a talent has already played for so many teams AND has not yet found the contract he wants this time around) and I'm actually glad they lost out on Zobrist. But a $110 - $120 million payroll in New York is unacceptable (and it should be to MLB, too), especially when the Wilpons own one of the best starting pitching staffs in baseball for basically nothing. Adding two quality field players for $15 - $20 million a year each would set the Mets up to be a consistent top-flight club for the next several years at a still modest payroll of $150 - $160 million. It's disgraceful that they can't and THAT'S the issue.
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Pay the pitchers. They're gold...
Go for steady .280 BA, high OBP and good defense with position players. See also: SF Giants...
Go for steady .280 BA, high OBP and good defense with position players. See also: SF Giants...
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The discussion about Cespedes seems to ignore the growing likelihood that the NL will have the DH in 1-2 years. With the Mets roster as is, there is no likely suitable candidate for that position. Cespedes would admirably fill the DH role even if Conforto, Lagares and a home-grown player (Nimmo; Bucerra) fill the OF starting in 2018. The DH should factor in to the Mets' analysis, in favor of a signing.
He just won a gold glove in 2015! DH??? Surely Conforto or Grandy first.
Even old guys like me understand WAR as a useful measure in making baseball decisions - will this player be more valuable than the generic guy who populated far too many early- and mid-season Mets lineups.
Cespedes appears to have a high WAR, but what about balancing WAR with cost? This is where I agree with Mr. Kepner. The Mets have drawn out their payroll in the past overpaying for talent when - at a much lower cost - their own developing talent may not have been much worse and, eventually, can reveal either more value or a reason to be dismissed.
If you're a fan for the long term, the painful Cespedes decision is a good sign for the future.
Cespedes appears to have a high WAR, but what about balancing WAR with cost? This is where I agree with Mr. Kepner. The Mets have drawn out their payroll in the past overpaying for talent when - at a much lower cost - their own developing talent may not have been much worse and, eventually, can reveal either more value or a reason to be dismissed.
If you're a fan for the long term, the painful Cespedes decision is a good sign for the future.
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What does that mean "a fan for the long term?" Keep losing year after ear and hope for down the road? Right now we have the pitching, but long term we won't be able to keep them all. I've been a Met fan since the team was formed for the long term, and what have I seen - 5 pennants and 2 World Championships? How about we win NOW and worry about the long term later.