Mets Gamble With $15.8 Million Offer to Daniel Murphy, Who Faces a Bigger Gamble

Nov 07, 2015 · 50 comments
Adirondax (mid-state New York)
The implications of many commenters is that somehow, paying a journeyman 2nd baseman who went on a two week hitting binge at just the right time has everything to do with the Mets and nothing to do with them.

Who do you think pays that $15.85 mil in the end? It's you, dear fan.

Don't want to pay? Cancel your cable TV subscription and watch the Mets teeter closer to bankruptcy than they already have been.

Baseball owners have allowed more power to shift to the fan than ever before. They live and die on cable TV revenue.

If all America pulled their cable TV subscriptions, athletes salaries would plummet.

Nation, the ball is in your court.
John (Baldwin, NY)
Sounds like Murph would be a perfect fit for a DH role in the American League.
David Ortiz is not getting any younger.
orbisdeo (san francisco)
A huge mistake. I don't just like him but admire and respect him. He is, however, a substandard fielder. Whenever a position player's hitting takes such precedence over fielding in a "gamble" like this, the table is turned. A remarkably daft blinders-on deal.
LaBamba (NYC)
Love the Murph', but even the qualifying offer is too rich. Mets will lose him to some developing club but no loss, plenty of good solid players at $10M....buh bye Mr. Murphy...
Socrates (Verona, N.J.)
"No major league player has ever accepted a qualifying offer."

Mr. Murphy should accept the offer and shatter another major league record.

And then watch the Wilponzi's pay for it and weep.
redweather (Atlanta)
If that $15.8 million is guaranteed, he'd be a fool not to take it.
Jeff C (New York , NY)
No one has taken the qualifying offer in the two years it's been around. Could it be that the players have just one week to accept? It takes time to develop a sense of the free agent market for even the best players let alone those that are on the bubble. One week isn't enough time.

Will Daniel find a home like he has had with the Mets (at a pretty good one-year $15 millions salary) or go into the unknown seeking bigger dollars with a team that doesn't sing in harmony like our Mets did this year.

Just remember what Coach says, its all about having fun. This is your home Murph, and I hope you feel the same.

JeffC51nyc
Nick O'Brien (New York, NY)
Jeff C. makes an interesting comment about the "quaiifying offer" - one week is not enough time to weigh the pro and cons of the offer. Jeff's instinct is on target, especially since David Waldtein appears not to understand the process and he has the luxury of much time in putting an article together. Alas Waldstein's article offers an inadequate exposition of the nuances and complexities of a "qualifying offer". A hint as to a downside in rejecting a qualifying is the Drew case, but Waldstein merely tells us that Drew's gambit didn't work because teams didn't want to part with a draft pick. Who decides what draft pick or picks would be adequate compensation for Drrew's departure? And were there other reasons Drew elected not to test free agency waters? Waldtein introduces a very interesting topic but did a woefully inadequate job of detailing it. May be the next time.
Tony Verow MD (Durango, CO)
Given MLB's turbid history with overinflated production spikes of HR's by players going onto anabolic steroids at some after their career starts can any team seriously consider signing Daniel Murphy?
JOELEEH (nyc)
So, Doctor, you think after an entire season of fulltime play resulting in production of 14 HRs you think one streak of 6 in the playoffs is a sign of steroid use? And I guess the steroids wore off just before the World Series. That is indeed a "turbid" diagnosis
Tony Verow MD (Durango, CO)
I still find it suspicious. Remember how stupid the Yankees looked after awarding A-Rod a ridiculous contract only to find that he was still doping?
James (Cornwall on Hudson)
15.8 million will buy a lot of ChapStick, to use after all those fielding errors he is sure to make next year.
Parker Kelly (Whitefish, MT)
Almost 16 million for a journeyman of his age, albeit a good journeyman at least for a while? You have to ask yourself, if he were kidnapped would the Mets, or anyone, pay that much to get him back? Doubt it.
Jerome Kopf (Cortlandt Manor, NY)
Met fans would chip in to get Murphy back.
Dan B. (Stamford, Conn.)
This isn't any kind of gamble. The worst that could happen is the Mets end up with Murphy for a year. That's the player who often comes through in the clutch at the plate, despite his defensive problems. He's also a fan favorite and has a fiery persona. Those things can help a team and not show up in the stats.
Steve B. (Pacifica, CA)
One other thing about Murphy:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/04/sports/baseball/mets-daniel-murphy-add...

This kind of thing can affect where a player ends up
Steve B. (Pacifica, CA)
It's a smart move. I sincerely hope Murphy never wears a Mets uniform again. A first round draft pick is a pretty sweet item!
HapinOregon (Southwest corner of Oregon)
I like Murphy, but he's a perfect example of why MLB has the American League and its DH...
Laura (California)
I think he should take the offer. He can stay with the Mets, not have to move, concentrate on his defense and build on what was, even to him, a surprise about his home-run capacity in the post-season. Then, if he has a great year, he will get an even bigger and multi-year offer and that seems fair all around. If he does not have a good year, then, the offers next year will be lower and that is also as it should be. He seems like a stand-up guy and hopefully his greed and ego are in check and he will do the smart thing here and take the offer.
EALidman (Brooklyn)
he may be "stand up," but he's also an admitted homophobe. in new york city.
Marc Kagan (New York)
Oh those errors! Unfortunately, it may provide a reality check for other teams, though Murphy might make a good DH who is also capable of filling in at multiple positions. Hopefully, he'll get a good offer and move on. An infield trio of Herrera, Flores, and Tejada provides insurance against Wright injury and further decline. Really, Wright also would be better off as a DH. I wonder if the Mets could eat some of his contract - now wildly over his actual value - and get an American League team to take him on.
J Farrell (Austin)
Saying Murphy is not worth the qualifying offer is just plain stupid. The Mets are famously subject to batting droughts . They had 2 no hitters thrown at them this year, one of them by a nobody. Murphy's bat was often the only weapon they had. So what if he committed a couple of errors! And what about his many SPECTACULAR fielding plays. If you want the real picture on Murph ask the pitching staff if he's worth the the qualifying money.
greensleeves (high falls)
To that point: any Mets fan knows he made the play of the year and several other remarkable highlight moments in the field. His real value moving forward could be at third base (his natural position) where Wright will need regular relief and continue to spell the other slots at 1b and 2b where needed. There will be plenty of playing time in total....I hope he stays and gets a worthy multi- year contract.
jch (NY)
The players get it or the owners get it. Take your pick.
CathyZ (Durham CT)
Any way you look at it his homering in 6 games in a row will never be forgotten in NYC, especially if he stays on NYC. Don't these guys think about marketing chances too?
robert blake (nyc)
My mind always wanders to what players like willie mays, Ted Williams or sandy Koufax would make in this over inflated world of baseball today. I would guess that Williams would be offered part ownership in the team and about 50 million a year for life. What a joke baseball salaries have become. Of course the same could be said for apartments in nyc. A 700 square ft one bedroom goes for about 1.6 million in TriBeCa. How nice to be a venture capitalist or hedge fund
Manager.
EALidman (Brooklyn)
unless they adopted the disciplined training regimens of today's players, kept themselves in shape and studied, studied and studied some more, guys like williams, mays and koufax would be run-of-the-mill. mantle wouldn't have made it past triple aaa given his off-the-field lifestyle. it's impossible to compare players from different eras, largely for this reason.

as for today's salaries, the players are worth every dime they are paid. period. they are the raw material, the talent, what we tune in for. rather than look at each player's salary, you'd be better served looking at "payrolls" overall. teams make money hand over fist, and that's all that matters.
Jerome Kopf (Cortlandt Manor, NY)
Money aside, unless Murphy gets protection from hitters immediately before and after him in the batting order he has good reason to move elsewhere. He did not get that in the World Series. Consequently, the Royals chose to give Murphy little to hit and, if necessary, to walk him. The Royals pitched around him with little to fear from Met batters in the two and four spots.
johnpakala (jersey city, nj)
murph has been a hard-working, valuable met. old-school, for sure. just wants to play.

i'll miss watching him, but i understand the temptation to give dilson a shot, [conforto], and, [hopefully], put the saved money toward a big bopper. such is the game today...sigh.
Kevin Twine (Brunswick, ME)
Murphy is probably at his peak earning potential right now. He had a great run but then he blew it on the biggest stage. There haven't been many performances that can outrank Murphy's game 5 against LA. He virtually single-handedly won that game. That will be forever etched in my memory. As will the image of that grounder going under his glove in game 4 of the Series .... Reggie he ain't.

Now he's in the big leagues of the money game. Hope you are good at saving money, Daniel. Listen to your tax man and accountant. It might not be fair, but it is what it is.
Michaelira (New Jersey)
Another commenter's mind "reels at the idea...{of] an offer of nearly $16 million for playing a single season of baseball," and as I type this comment, eleven others have "recommended" his comment. Folks, talent is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. A professional athlete's career can end in an instant due to injury, and without a proper contract, he will be discarded like yesterday's garbage. My mind reels at the fact that no none ever begrudges the multi-millions raked in by owners, who unlike their talent, typically receive subsidies in one form or another from every level of government from local to federal, including cushy deals to help build their stadiums. If you so resent the amount of money made by ballplayers, don't watch the games; otherwise, realize they are entertainers, and entertainers make a lot of money. Deal with it.
EALidman (Brooklyn)
bingo!!
chambolle (Bainbridge Island, Washington)
Both you and Ealidman seem to accept these ludicrous salaries as inevitable, and somehow justified by the bigger fool theory - everybody is doing it, some fool may come along and pay even more, so live with it. Well, if the basic law of supply and demand were at work here, a fellow like Murphy would take $16 million for one season of baseball games and consider himself a very lucky, not to mention a very wealthy man, even if he plays just one more year. Review the Royals roster - a team that just ran circles around the Mets - humilitated them to be frank. Ben Zobrist earns $7.75 million. Hosmer $5.6 million. Alcides Escobar, $3 million. Lorenzo Cain $2.75 million. Mike Moustakas, $2.6 million. Salvador Perez - a horse if there ever was one, and the Series MVP, $1.75 million. Not a poor man in the lot. Now tell me Murphy is "worth" nearly as much as all of them combined? There are hungry, motivated, talented baseball players in development all over the globe, many of whom would jump at the chance to play for $1 million a year. Paying a flawed player like Murphy $16 million a year is the advertising revenue fattened, lazy man's way to try to put a winning baseball team together - "just keep throwing money at it and something will happen." How about finding talented, motivated diamonds in the rough, paying them pretty handsome but not ludicrous salaries, and playing exciting, fast paced, winning ball games, perhaps even winning it all in a World Series? That's "entertainment."
EALidman (Brooklyn)
those royals make less because they have considerably less service time than murphy now has. it has little to do with whether they are "better" players. this is how baseball works. a player is cost-controlled for his first six years (i think it's six, it might be seven, i forget), after which time they can become free agents. one day sal perez will have a similar decision to make, as will escobar, cain, etc.
jeff (silver city nm)
More mismanagement!
CHN (Boston)
This lad (and his agent) would be advised to remember he's not a 22 year old phenom with his career set to unfold in front of him.
gv (Wisconsin)
Should strongly consider league switch and DH, but there is history of NL hitters not faring as well in the AL.
Ernest Lamonica (Queens NY)
Giving Murphy $15 Million is really, well to be honest, insane. He belongs in AL. DHing and PT infielder. With his OBPS and BA and doubles he would make $10-$12-Mil a year TOPS even multi year at $11 mil but $15.8? No way. If he turns that down the Mets should be ecstatic. He is not THAT good.
joe (Getzville, NY)
Murphy can play a reasonable third base. Gary and I think it was Keith called it his natural position. With David Wright questionable or at least probably limited in the long term by his back issues., Murphy represents an insurance policy.

If he doesn't take the deal, he'll probably end up on an AL team where he can play a utility role and be a designated hitter.
carlson74 (Massachyussetts)
No World Series win no raise.
NHA (MA)
Daniel. Take it. Cano you are not.
EALidman (Brooklyn)
silly advice. even if he only gets $10M per on a 4-year deal, he banks a guaranteed $40M vs. possibly blowing out his back (or knee, or shoulder, etc) next year and retiring with much less. it's not a difficult concept to appreciate. more is better, esp when it comes to money.
Bob DiNardo (New York)
Murphy's defensive skills are unlikely to improve much, if at all, in the coming years. So, he seems best suited for an American League team, where he will be of more use as full-time DH, but also able to spell other players at different defensive positions from time-to-time.
Lindy (New Orleans)
I do not have the tools to do an analysis of other hot streaks that Murphy has had during his career, but I doubt if they come anywhere close to the one he had just before -- but definitely not during -- the World Series.

Sabrmetricians might want to design a statistic for "hot streaks during periods of greatest fan interest in baseball" and apply it here. Had Murphy hit home runs so many games in a row in May or June, he would not have attracted nearly the attention that he did in October, especially not outside of New York.

Essentially we're talking about rewarding Murphy with $15-plus million dollars for a single hot streak -- albeit a well-timed one. But baseball measures a player's worth over the long run, not just for individual week-long streaks. In my mind the offer seems very foolish.
Artie (<br/>)
"No major league player has ever accepted a qualifying offer." I did not know that! (channeling Johnny Carson). So why does such a concept still exist? As a point of honor, no self-respecting player would accept, it would seem.
Nicholas Conticello (New Jersey)
Once Murphy rejects the qualifying offer, he and his agent should sit down with Alderson and settle on a deal for three years and somewhere from $33M-$36M.
He'll get a nice chunk of change and the Mets will have a solid bat and insurance against the fragile bodies of Messrs. Wright and Duda. Murphy could easily play third or first should one of the corner infielders break down.

With that taken care of, the Mets could turn their attention to short, center field, and the bullpen. Improvements to two of those three sore spots could be enough to make the Mets strong contenders in the NL East no matter what the Nationals and Marlins (yes, the Marlins) do.
chambolle (Bainbridge Island, Washington)
The mind reels at the idea that anyone could seriously consider walking away from an offer of nearly $16 million for playing a single season of baseball. What on earth has become of this game?
frank (brooklyn)
Super Agents.
Joe Sabin (Florida)
It's designed to limit his options. I'm a Mets fan and disagree with this kind of gamesmanship. It's a cheep shot really. Murphy is unlikely to ever match his post season play ever again. At 31 he will soon be a fading player. His only real hope is to snag a 3-4 year deal worth 10-12 million a year.

If he takes the 15.8 million, then next year he'll likely "only" be offered much less per year than he could get for a four year deal this winter.
Anne Etra (Richmond Hill, NY)
Yes, well. One could argue that 'movie stars' get paid $16 million to entertain us for a single film, while the baseball player gets out there for 160 games/year and has to keep himself in top physical condition, remain uninjured and perform with excellent athleticism. Plus, keep the millions of viewers and fans happy.
Not so easy.