Getting pretty tired of Clinton supporters trying to tell everyone this race is over already. You tried to tell us that 8 years ago too when Obama was down by 27 points nationally, and we still came back to kick your butts. Prepare for a repeat of that lesson.
41
Polls tend to fabricate opinion rather than measure it - or as the old critique goes - they 'manufacture consent'. When media pays too much attention to polls rather than taking the time to listen and report on to people's stories, needs and views, then we get only the slanted view of the pollsters and the media has failed terribly in its mission. While this article goes to great lengths to point out weaknesses of sampling in the Monmouth poll, I'm quite skeptical of the others too and would prefer there be no polls at all.
14
Do not discount Iowa progressives.
13
As I suspected.
Try to give the Sanders folk a few encouraging words and they lash out at everyone; the author of this article included. Their viewpoint: if you wouldn't cook the books for Bernie from the get-go, anything you say now is gratuitous.
Try to give the Sanders folk a few encouraging words and they lash out at everyone; the author of this article included. Their viewpoint: if you wouldn't cook the books for Bernie from the get-go, anything you say now is gratuitous.
1
Dewey defeats Truman!
7
They are scared. Their chosen establishment figure is sinking in a sea of newly awakened voters and they are scared. This will be like 2008, even bigger. Bernie Sanders already broke many of Obama's former rally records, prepare for a record breaking turn out in the caucus. One which will leave Bernie Sanders the victor.
33
I predict a backlash from progressive, independent voters who really resent having Hillary shoved down our throats by the Democrat establishment.
51
Since when do polls have to be fair?
1
Since when are they even accurate?
Realistic is what we are looking for.
4
The bottom line with polling currently is that is has become even more inaccurate. And the press being what it is still uses it and everyone else. What a joke. What we need could be a technology innovation being a way for an individual to participate with the necessary demographic data. Yet the trick would be to make it fraud proof which which would require setting up an account on a website and so on. Oh what is this not Facebook? Mr. Cohn, how accurate is FB then?
3
Except that this Monmouth poll is corroborated by the Loras College poll of the Iowa Caucus out today. It also surveyed Iowa voters this weekend, and it found Clinton opening up 38-point lead, similar to the Monmouth poll's 41-point Clinton advantage.
Are all the pollsters in cahoots to boost Hillary with skewed sampling, or is the simply clearer now to the Democratic electorate that Hillary -- now a folk hero due to the Emailghazi Committee -- is a far better and more electable candidate than a pro-gun socialist who is not even a Democrat?
On the outside chance that Bernie is nominated over Hillary, I am among the many Democrats who would never, ever vote for such a candidate. But thankfully as the polls demonstrate, Bernie is an also-ran who peaked too soon.
Are all the pollsters in cahoots to boost Hillary with skewed sampling, or is the simply clearer now to the Democratic electorate that Hillary -- now a folk hero due to the Emailghazi Committee -- is a far better and more electable candidate than a pro-gun socialist who is not even a Democrat?
On the outside chance that Bernie is nominated over Hillary, I am among the many Democrats who would never, ever vote for such a candidate. But thankfully as the polls demonstrate, Bernie is an also-ran who peaked too soon.
5
And I suppose I am among the many voters who wouldn't vote for Hillary. But hey, I suppose that's just anecdotal, no?
10
I would not bury his campaign yet - there are still a few shoes to drop yet. (Effective use of the 100's of thousands who 'volunteered'
3
Er.. Did you read the article? Most of Bernie's supporters are independents, and so wouldn't even be represented in these polls (as stated in the article).
"A pro-gun socialist who isn't even a Democrat": This is the sort of thinking we need to do away with. Democratic socialism would be a massive step forward for the US, and is -nothing- like 'socialism' is made out to be by the media/the right. Furthermore, affiliation or non-affiliation should have nothing to do with your overall assessment of a candidate; one could say it would be 'un-American' to reject a political candidate based on their party and not their politics.
I mean, really, what are you going to do? Vote -Republican- instead? Ohh yeah, -that- will show that Independent candidate.
Way to further the two-party agenda that's already gone way too far.
"A pro-gun socialist who isn't even a Democrat": This is the sort of thinking we need to do away with. Democratic socialism would be a massive step forward for the US, and is -nothing- like 'socialism' is made out to be by the media/the right. Furthermore, affiliation or non-affiliation should have nothing to do with your overall assessment of a candidate; one could say it would be 'un-American' to reject a political candidate based on their party and not their politics.
I mean, really, what are you going to do? Vote -Republican- instead? Ohh yeah, -that- will show that Independent candidate.
Way to further the two-party agenda that's already gone way too far.
17
While Mr Cohn seems to be implying that he is doing some sort of service for Sanders here, this is yet another cleverly titled shot at Sanders which essentially implies that he has little chance of winning.
I think you, and many other pundits are going to end up shocked when Voter turnout ends up being higher than any other presidential primary in recent times. The polls do NOT reflect the overwhelming support for Sanders across the social media spectrum, and that also includes the comments section of your own articles and other NYT
I think you, and many other pundits are going to end up shocked when Voter turnout ends up being higher than any other presidential primary in recent times. The polls do NOT reflect the overwhelming support for Sanders across the social media spectrum, and that also includes the comments section of your own articles and other NYT
59
This is no different then any other tactic used to skew public opinion to a neoliberal, Hillary, whose donor list reflects who she supports. There is a wonderful quote that I love: "When you see people's true colors, don't try to repaint them."
Hillary has corporate, wall street and banking donors as well as many wealthy friends. These people and entities are only concerned for themselves. Anyone considering voting for Hillary is considering a vote to keep economic injustice/inequality intact. The real issue is this and an incredible pathological imbalance of power. Those of us who support Bernie are well aware of the Clinton tactics to bait based on her gender and to fan the exploitative flames of guns, but the reality is, that it doesn't resolve the root of the issue, in which Sanders wishes to change.
There is a split within the Democratic party between neoliberals and populists. Neoliberals need to be taken out of power. They are just as dangerous to us, fiscally, as Republicans and those of us who support sanders would do best to realize that power intends to win, no matter the cost.
Hillary has corporate, wall street and banking donors as well as many wealthy friends. These people and entities are only concerned for themselves. Anyone considering voting for Hillary is considering a vote to keep economic injustice/inequality intact. The real issue is this and an incredible pathological imbalance of power. Those of us who support Bernie are well aware of the Clinton tactics to bait based on her gender and to fan the exploitative flames of guns, but the reality is, that it doesn't resolve the root of the issue, in which Sanders wishes to change.
There is a split within the Democratic party between neoliberals and populists. Neoliberals need to be taken out of power. They are just as dangerous to us, fiscally, as Republicans and those of us who support sanders would do best to realize that power intends to win, no matter the cost.
24
Guess what happens when people attack Bernie, we give him more money! After this poll i would bet that Bernie sees a huge bump in donations. I know as soon as I saw that poll I gave 35 bucks.
31
My comment was cut off before I finished it. What I meant to add was the overwhelming number of pro-sanders up votes and comments all over YouTube and other mediums. Check out this really interesting blog post that researches commentary on social media:
http://www.popmatters.com/column/196923-could-youtube-help-bernie-sander...
http://www.popmatters.com/column/196923-could-youtube-help-bernie-sander...
2
The problem is that long time Democrats like Clinton, but no one else does. That is why in a general election she will likely lose, while Sanders would likely win. You can't win a general election without independents.
53
I am a long time Dem and I very much dislike Clinton- precisely because she and her husband have an undistinguished and corrupting record on a range of issues. I have voted Democratic in every local, state and national election for 35 years. If she's the nominee it will be agonizing but I will consider sitting the prez election out. I am not alone either.
20
Will NOT vote for Clinton. Wish Obama had kept her out of his cabinet.
7
I am a straight ticket Dem voter also, actually. And I really have no desire to vote for anyone who voted for the Iraq war. I am disappointed in fellow Democrats who seem to be wiling to look beyond all the deaths this stupid decision caused, and fall for the red-jacket glamour that Mrs. Clinton is trying her hardest to project.
7
It seems to me this election hinges on the millennials in large part. They've got good reason to feel abandoned by virtually every candidate besides Sanders.
76
Sanders is their champion and he should be, as he is for many more who are feeling the consequences of imbalance of power and corporate, wall street, banking and wealthy rule. They've been screwed by the Republican/neoliberal establishment, of which Mrs. Clinton is part. Speaking of which we need campaign finance reform, as Mrs Clinton is reflective of this desperate need of change. Her donor list is reflective of whom she will owe if she were to win and it would not be us. Corporate anything will tilt in her favor, and they will use every tactic to do so. From fear of Republicans to promises that Mrs. Clinton never intends to keep.
12
How the hell does anyone know what 8 million people will do based on polling 1,500 in that state via their landline phones?
48
400 people in this poll. Almost 80% are older people - landline mostly
7% - 18-34
17% - 35-49
37% - 50-64
39% - 65+
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 22 to 25, 2015 with a statewide random sample of 400 Iowa voters drawn from a list of registered Democratic voters who voted in at least one of the last two state primary elections and indicate they are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses in February 2016...etc,etc
And thank you, Nate!
7% - 18-34
17% - 35-49
37% - 50-64
39% - 65+
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 22 to 25, 2015 with a statewide random sample of 400 Iowa voters drawn from a list of registered Democratic voters who voted in at least one of the last two state primary elections and indicate they are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses in February 2016...etc,etc
And thank you, Nate!
14
I would imagine that using only landline samples would nearly invalidate your poll at this point. Who has a landline phone anymore? Oh right, old people. Heck, I know lots of 60-70 year old people that don't have a landline.
7
Nate Cohn, has a good job of explaining why polls are merely opinion and not fact. After all, if polls were fact than Obama would not have surprised so many at his run and winning the presidency.
Another fact: Iowa is a Republican state pretty much, and would they really want to poll so many discontents? As unhappy with the country as 'We the People' were in the 2007 run, can you just imagine what how angered these same folks are today? After the sand-box tantrums we have seen from this do-nothing, freeloading Congress do you really think Iowa wants very many Democrat, esp. Bernie supporters, at their caucus?
Intelligent voters put no stock on polls. They investigate the records, lives and Integrity of each Candidate before heading to polls. After all, even within their own party our representatives no longer agree with one another!
Another fact: Iowa is a Republican state pretty much, and would they really want to poll so many discontents? As unhappy with the country as 'We the People' were in the 2007 run, can you just imagine what how angered these same folks are today? After the sand-box tantrums we have seen from this do-nothing, freeloading Congress do you really think Iowa wants very many Democrat, esp. Bernie supporters, at their caucus?
Intelligent voters put no stock on polls. They investigate the records, lives and Integrity of each Candidate before heading to polls. After all, even within their own party our representatives no longer agree with one another!
14
Bernie Sanders fans have a problem if it really is mostly independents backing Sanders and left wing Democrats. Can't win the Democratic nomination without the Democratic base. Which isn't just very progressive Democrats.
Let alone the general election.
Also, those Sander's fan comparing him to Obama. I have news for you.
Obama didn't come out of nowhere, he was a up and coming star of the Democratic party, and he towed the party line.
Meanwhile Sander's is not really a Democrat, and has even in the past attacked the Democratic party.
Let alone the general election.
Also, those Sander's fan comparing him to Obama. I have news for you.
Obama didn't come out of nowhere, he was a up and coming star of the Democratic party, and he towed the party line.
Meanwhile Sander's is not really a Democrat, and has even in the past attacked the Democratic party.
3
42% of Americans Identify as independent, while only 30% identify as democrat.
There are more states with open primary/caucuses (like big Texas and California) than closed.
Independents largely favor Sanders - he will give her a run for her money.
There are more states with open primary/caucuses (like big Texas and California) than closed.
Independents largely favor Sanders - he will give her a run for her money.
33
44% of Americans are Independent 28% are Dems, 22% are Repubs. He pulls from all parties especially the Independent party. If we keep going like we are, it will be a blowout.
27
Obama was someone I voted for. Twice. And an ultimate disappointment as he turned out to be a neoliberal too. The rich have gotten richer and the poor poorer under this President and his disdain for those in poverty or low income is barely contained, but is shown through the passing of trade deals and bills that throw them all under the bus.
Bill Clinton, Obama and if Hillary wins, have all contributed to economic injustice/inequality. They are wedded to their corporate, wall street, banking masters and wealthy friends. I keep my eye on the ball and do not allow myself to distract from this reality. I'm not invested in having a woman as President, not this one, nor am I invested in fear of being taxed, but those of us who are suffering as a result of deprivation and sabotage policy under neoliberal rule, understand who their oppressors are. And they vote. I wouldn't count them out, as millennials are often feeling the consequences.
Bill Clinton, Obama and if Hillary wins, have all contributed to economic injustice/inequality. They are wedded to their corporate, wall street, banking masters and wealthy friends. I keep my eye on the ball and do not allow myself to distract from this reality. I'm not invested in having a woman as President, not this one, nor am I invested in fear of being taxed, but those of us who are suffering as a result of deprivation and sabotage policy under neoliberal rule, understand who their oppressors are. And they vote. I wouldn't count them out, as millennials are often feeling the consequences.
11
Not to mention the vast majority sample population for the study were those answering LandLine telephones. Who primarily uses a landline telephone anymore? My grandmother? Common Pollsters smh
If you're going to sham a poll at least be realistic smh
If you're going to sham a poll at least be realistic smh
20
"so let me go out of my way to provide some today:"
Nice. Very condescending way to start and article. Focusing on some poll nobody cares about while ignoring the overwhelming evidence that Sanders is very popular among voters is just classic.
Nice. Very condescending way to start and article. Focusing on some poll nobody cares about while ignoring the overwhelming evidence that Sanders is very popular among voters is just classic.
42
I know, This is one articles that treating Sanders and supporter rather light positivity for change.
2
I haven’t had much good news for Bernie Sanders supporters this year, so let me go out of my way to provide some today"...
There has been SO much good news for Sanders supporters this year that has been overlooked by the NYT. He has been drawing the biggest crowds in campaign history, but the mainstream media, including the NYT, will counter that fact by saying something like: it doesn't matter; most of those people won't vote anyway. He actually won the first debate, but before the electorate had a chance to make up their own minds, the NYT and other so-called liberal media outlets, including MSNBC, were falling all over each other to coronate Hillary. Words like "irascible," "cranky," and "hunched" were used by columnists here to describe Bernie at the debate.
Here is what is glaringly and increasingly obvious to so many: the NYT is trying to shape the outcome of the Democratic primary. If more people start to catch-on to this not so subtle form of manipulation, there were be a huge backlash
from the electorate in the form of low voter turnout on the Democratic side in November 2016.
There has been SO much good news for Sanders supporters this year that has been overlooked by the NYT. He has been drawing the biggest crowds in campaign history, but the mainstream media, including the NYT, will counter that fact by saying something like: it doesn't matter; most of those people won't vote anyway. He actually won the first debate, but before the electorate had a chance to make up their own minds, the NYT and other so-called liberal media outlets, including MSNBC, were falling all over each other to coronate Hillary. Words like "irascible," "cranky," and "hunched" were used by columnists here to describe Bernie at the debate.
Here is what is glaringly and increasingly obvious to so many: the NYT is trying to shape the outcome of the Democratic primary. If more people start to catch-on to this not so subtle form of manipulation, there were be a huge backlash
from the electorate in the form of low voter turnout on the Democratic side in November 2016.
118
Thank you, Nate. I appreciate that you took the time to evaluate whether or not this poll was reliable.
25
Does the Clinton Foundation fund Monmouth? This extreme switch sounds phony, but then much about Hillary has that ring.
30
Now if we could determine why the media, including The Times - has done its best to downplay Bernie Sanders' campaign.............
102
Why? Math and polling.
Bernie Sanders support is from mostly Independents and left wing Democrats. Hillary, like her or not has more broader support from all types of Democrats. Moderates, liberals, etc. Worse, Bernie Sander's isn't winning over African-Americans or minorities in general.
Hard to win the Democratic nomination with support of just the liberal wing/independents that change their affiliation to support Bernie.
Now, I think he could win the general election if I'm honest. It helps that the GOP are a joke. The problem is getting the nomination.
I'll take Bernie Sander's seriously when he can win moderates/minorities. So far he isn't doing that.
Bernie Sanders support is from mostly Independents and left wing Democrats. Hillary, like her or not has more broader support from all types of Democrats. Moderates, liberals, etc. Worse, Bernie Sander's isn't winning over African-Americans or minorities in general.
Hard to win the Democratic nomination with support of just the liberal wing/independents that change their affiliation to support Bernie.
Now, I think he could win the general election if I'm honest. It helps that the GOP are a joke. The problem is getting the nomination.
I'll take Bernie Sander's seriously when he can win moderates/minorities. So far he isn't doing that.
5
Math and polls? Nodda. It's the press's job to report on the facts and the policies of the candidates. They haven't done either very well.
Sanders is already supported by republicans, by the way, because his policies are far more mainstream than you or the media suggest. You'll never hear about it in the MSM.
Sanders is already supported by republicans, by the way, because his policies are far more mainstream than you or the media suggest. You'll never hear about it in the MSM.
26
But why don't moderates/minorities take Sanders seriously--if that's even true? It's the way he's been portrayed in the media, mostly negative, as too anti establishment, causing anxiety. This plays right into the hands of the big money. He can't win b/c everybody says he can't win, because.....it's a vicious cycle. The media is shaping the campaign for voters and ignoring issues. And reporting mostly on fund raising as the mark of the top candidates gives the media an excuse to stay away from the issues.
But are the many thousands who turn out to cheer him all left wing socialist radicals, whatever that means? Not, they want to restore the equality that was once a hallmark of US democracy. Sanders views were once much more centrist in our politics, before the rw became dominant.
Vanessa's point is what we should be analyzing--why is the NYT downplaying Sanders? It's obvious the Times and what liberal columnists it has do avoid analyzing his proposals. What are they afraid of===to be labeled too left wing by the rw gop media, thus lose their prestige and influence as insiders with the establishment? What else?
But are the many thousands who turn out to cheer him all left wing socialist radicals, whatever that means? Not, they want to restore the equality that was once a hallmark of US democracy. Sanders views were once much more centrist in our politics, before the rw became dominant.
Vanessa's point is what we should be analyzing--why is the NYT downplaying Sanders? It's obvious the Times and what liberal columnists it has do avoid analyzing his proposals. What are they afraid of===to be labeled too left wing by the rw gop media, thus lose their prestige and influence as insiders with the establishment? What else?
7
Everyone! Take cover! Nate Cohn just spoke in earnest! The sky must be falling...
17
Second poll released today shows same result - Hillary way ahead in Iowa.
http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/Clinton-Extends-Lead-...
http://loras.edu/About-Loras/News-Events/News/2015/Clinton-Extends-Lead-...
6
Exactly!! Why do you hate Hillary NY Times?
Methodological issues similar to the Monmouth University Poll
8
That poll 63% over 50. 80% landline. 52% female. Registered dems that voted 2012 2014. Heavily slanted. #feelthebern
25
Dear Nate Cohn:
Thank you for showing how and specifically why a particular poll is biased. This is a public service and in the best traditions of journalism. It also shows how flawed many other polls can be.
A few years ago I received a call from a pollster from CBS or NBC whose questions were something like the following:
If you knew that Mr. Smith had misappropriated funds would you still consider voting for him?
After a few of these questions I told the pollster that his questions were already biased and that I doubted he really wanted my opinion, and hung up.
What the pollsters do not really want to see is how much the support for someone like Sanders is very solid and will only grow. They also know, but choose to ignore, how many people for a short time, out of pity for someone like Clinton, sympathetically will support her after she was abused at the Benghazi hearing, and then when her inconstancy and evasiveness show again they will once again turn away from her.
I imagine Clinton trying to play the gender card (“the shouting remark”) has already reminded some women and men why they do not want to vote for her.
Thank you for showing how and specifically why a particular poll is biased. This is a public service and in the best traditions of journalism. It also shows how flawed many other polls can be.
A few years ago I received a call from a pollster from CBS or NBC whose questions were something like the following:
If you knew that Mr. Smith had misappropriated funds would you still consider voting for him?
After a few of these questions I told the pollster that his questions were already biased and that I doubted he really wanted my opinion, and hung up.
What the pollsters do not really want to see is how much the support for someone like Sanders is very solid and will only grow. They also know, but choose to ignore, how many people for a short time, out of pity for someone like Clinton, sympathetically will support her after she was abused at the Benghazi hearing, and then when her inconstancy and evasiveness show again they will once again turn away from her.
I imagine Clinton trying to play the gender card (“the shouting remark”) has already reminded some women and men why they do not want to vote for her.
53
The real unfairness is not polling the wholly imaginary campaign of Joe Biden.
6
“I don’t feel this is 2008.”
Except that that's not your job if your goal is to produce an honest assessment of where Iowa voters currently stand. This reminds me heavily of Penn & Teller's argument in their show with an unprintable-in-the-Times title, where they point out that a dishonest pollster can easily determine the results of any poll by changing who they're surveying and how they ask the questions.
Except that that's not your job if your goal is to produce an honest assessment of where Iowa voters currently stand. This reminds me heavily of Penn & Teller's argument in their show with an unprintable-in-the-Times title, where they point out that a dishonest pollster can easily determine the results of any poll by changing who they're surveying and how they ask the questions.
61
I'm beginning to think many Democrats have as little sense as their foaming-at-the-mouth GOP brethren.