'“That is truly shocking,” [Steven Sherwood] wrote in an email exchange, and added that he found it ironic, “given the region’s importance in providing fossil fuels.”' Not ironic, but an Earth-Bats-Last Catch 22? We can only hope.
This story is unduly pessimistic. Simple genetic bio-engineering could allow outdoor workers to eliminate body heat via their lungs. The employees could work like dogs and the oil and profits could continue to flow.
1
Anyway we can speed this up?
5
And to think, people laughed when during the first Democratic debate. Bernie Sanders said climate change is our biggest national security threat - in fact, the resultant destabilization threatens us all, everywhere.
13
Without real leadership it is difficult for many to alter behavior. Apart from Senator Sanders no one running for the presidency that I have heard, appears to think this is a major concern. And apart from the physical affect of heat, there is also the mental affect. Think of how one feels in the summer in the NE on a hot humid day and multiply that at least tenfold. Given the lack of wholesale changes in behavior wrt conserving energy (just listen to the ACs whirring on a 82 degree day in summer and see kids playing in the house in shorts in the house in the dead of winter), we can only hope for some breakthrough in research on providing alternative energies that humans would finally embrace.
3
"In an interview via email, Dr. Fischer said that he found the research “robust and noteworthy,” though he said some uncertainties remain in the temperature measurements and the models. “Whether it exceeds or just gets close to the adaptability limit and for what period (which is probably quite relevant) may need further research,” he wrote.
Throughout the article, words like 'could' and 'may' are everywhere. Yet the NYTimes states that the study 'predicts' and 'forecasts.' And this 'study' was published in Nature Climate Change. No offense, but does anyone here believe that this 'journal' would say anything other than climate change will destroy the planet? This study has not value as it has no objectivity what so ever. Can we ever have an open discussion of the facts, the models used to derive the facts, and the inherent errors in the measuring system?
Oh, btw, most of the middle east is a desert now. And has been for thousands of years.
Throughout the article, words like 'could' and 'may' are everywhere. Yet the NYTimes states that the study 'predicts' and 'forecasts.' And this 'study' was published in Nature Climate Change. No offense, but does anyone here believe that this 'journal' would say anything other than climate change will destroy the planet? This study has not value as it has no objectivity what so ever. Can we ever have an open discussion of the facts, the models used to derive the facts, and the inherent errors in the measuring system?
Oh, btw, most of the middle east is a desert now. And has been for thousands of years.
3
I'm guessing that you have (a) never read an actual scientific paper, and (b) think that "change" means "one-way change," and (c) don't understand that if you're willing to explore (a) you'll find absolutely "open discussion of the facts," although, true, the discussion won't sound like Fox News.
11
"Because of humanity’s contribution to climate change, the authors wrote, some population centers in the Middle East “are likely to experience temperature levels that are intolerable to humans.”"
So if the heat wasn't caused by human actions, it would not be a problem? Why do we need the part of the sentence "Because of humanity's contribution"?. Did these researchers did do anything to prove that portion of the knowledge? It appears they just projected warming trends out to 2100. So, is this study now part of the "98 percent of climate scientists agree" meme?
Not saying the earth is not getting warmer. Just arguing that a lot of the research touted as proving it is human induced is not actually a study of what is causing the heating, but projections of what the impact of heating could be. Those can be two very different things. Effect does not prove cause.
So if the heat wasn't caused by human actions, it would not be a problem? Why do we need the part of the sentence "Because of humanity's contribution"?. Did these researchers did do anything to prove that portion of the knowledge? It appears they just projected warming trends out to 2100. So, is this study now part of the "98 percent of climate scientists agree" meme?
Not saying the earth is not getting warmer. Just arguing that a lot of the research touted as proving it is human induced is not actually a study of what is causing the heating, but projections of what the impact of heating could be. Those can be two very different things. Effect does not prove cause.
3
The Catholic Pople has called for urgent action to protect our environment and combat climate change. How about the Islamic preachers?
Water scarcity is already a problem and a source of conflict in the region. The rich there should abandon a life of hedonism and think of the sustainability of our planet.
Water scarcity is already a problem and a source of conflict in the region. The rich there should abandon a life of hedonism and think of the sustainability of our planet.
7
Divine just judgment of the planet Earth by fossil fuel green house gas carbon dioxide and methane emissions. To see the future of Earth see the present of the planet Venus. Coupled with deforestation and slash and burn agriculture the past is prologue.
3
"Could be", "May", "Might", etc.
The earth "Might" get destroyed by a comet tomorrow, but that fact is not trumpeted on the front page of major newspapers every day. Why? There is no power to be had by politicians because controlling people's lives cannot stop a comet. At least I haven't heard a liberal tell us how humans are to blame for comets yet, but it's probably coming.
The earth "Might" get destroyed by a comet tomorrow, but that fact is not trumpeted on the front page of major newspapers every day. Why? There is no power to be had by politicians because controlling people's lives cannot stop a comet. At least I haven't heard a liberal tell us how humans are to blame for comets yet, but it's probably coming.
1
This is a classic case of misjudging the relative risks involved. The probability of getting struck by a lethal comet (or asteroid, much more likely) on a given day-or even within the next century-is so low as to be difficult to express. Whereas the odds of the climate-related scenario presented here or by other climate scientists tend to be more like >50%. While the word "might" can mean anything from 0.00000000000001% to 99%, it's pretty clear in this context that there is no comparing the comet scenario with that presented in the article. There's nothing political about it, just statistics.
6
There is a good reason this is"Trumpeted" on the front page. But for the GOP ignorance is bliss. Just ignore it and it will go away. Akin to the band playing on the Titanic as she sank.
3
Hey guys, when the leading "global warming 'scientists'" write to Congress to try and get the non-believers thrown in prison, I am more than skeptical. This is a modern day burning at the stake.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/09/17/scientists-ask-obama-to-prosecute-glob...
http://dailycaller.com/2015/09/17/scientists-ask-obama-to-prosecute-glob...
This article should have been placed under "religion" not science. The Obama administration has spent around $100 Billion over the last four years on global warming, and have corrupted the "science". They don't pay for studies that don't support the narrative.
1
Forecasters have a problem accurately predicting the weather a week in advance. To be able to accurately predict it 85 years in advance...a human being has a better chance of being struck by lightning 20 times in a row...and winning the Mega Millions 10 times in a row than an accurate weather prediction 85 years from now. Not to mention...most of us who read this wont even exist in 2100. Why are we gonna care what the weather is even where we lived before we died...moreso the Persian Gulf!?!?
2
Um. Maybe for your children?
10
I don't believe a word of this article.
First they tell us the Earth is getting hotter and then they tell us we will have another Ice age.
I am all for reducing pollution but not because I think the Earth will become uninhabitable because of this pollution.
There are cities that are becoming unhealthy to live in because of the pollution in the air and because the population of the Earth is increasing that pollution is going to increase it will make more cities impossible to live in and therefore we need to m pollute less..
We need to build more nuclear powered electric plants and increase our use of mass transit
I therefore accept many of the actions people who think this article is true tell us has to be done but not for the reasons they have.
First they tell us the Earth is getting hotter and then they tell us we will have another Ice age.
I am all for reducing pollution but not because I think the Earth will become uninhabitable because of this pollution.
There are cities that are becoming unhealthy to live in because of the pollution in the air and because the population of the Earth is increasing that pollution is going to increase it will make more cities impossible to live in and therefore we need to m pollute less..
We need to build more nuclear powered electric plants and increase our use of mass transit
I therefore accept many of the actions people who think this article is true tell us has to be done but not for the reasons they have.
3
I find it ironic: it will become too hot to extract the fuel that is causing global warming.
9
Most commercial buildings and hotels are built with fixed windows, so even when it is not particularly hot, one cannot open a window to let in some cooler, fresher air. The only way to ventilate such a room is by turning on the HVAC system. This is an incredible waste -- but I'm sure those fixed windows were cheaper to manufacture and install than ones that open.
8
I always thought it safety. They can't be opened therefore nobody can jump out of them on a whim.
2
Too bad for them but I'm counting on leaving before then.
5
Rejoice!
Maybe Greenland will become habitable again, as it was in the not too distant past, and Mecca can be relocated there.
Maybe Greenland will become habitable again, as it was in the not too distant past, and Mecca can be relocated there.
4
Have faith. Fusion technology may save the day.
“Civilization exists by geological consent, subject to change without notice.” - Will Durant
9
This region has been a lethal environment for millenia, out of the frying pan & into the fire. Stirring up nothing new but the same climate change stew.
1
Time to get in early on making money off of "climate -change" by getting into Canadian real estate. Anyone who has lived a Canadian winter would welcome global warming. So let's run the equation: lovely, democratic, fine-dining, Western (Christian) imbued Montreal becomes enjoyable in the winter vs, Muslim, undemocratic, repressive, 7th century Muslim Dubai becomes even less fun than now.
Go go go global warming - sounds like a winner to me.
Go go go global warming - sounds like a winner to me.
While this is a very worthwhile article, I think it would be more understandable if the Times had refrained from switching back and forth from Fahrenheit to Celsius. Pick a system and stick with it, consistently.
Better yet, it would be extremely helpful if the US would FINALLY adopt the metric system, like they intended to back in the 70's.
Better yet, it would be extremely helpful if the US would FINALLY adopt the metric system, like they intended to back in the 70's.
5
Persian Gulf, you say? Well at least not all the consequences of global warming are negative....
2
Global warming and climate change deniers will blame this one on ISIS
1
The research also raises the prospect of “severe consequences” for the hajj, the annual pilgrimage that draws roughly two million people to Mecca to pray outdoors from dawn to dusk. Should the hajj, which can occur at different times of the year, fall during the height of the summer, “This necessary outdoor Muslim ritual is likely to become hazardous to human health,” the authors predicted.
It seems to me that Hajj is already hazardous to human health.
It seems to me that Hajj is already hazardous to human health.
5
Year 2100 might be the year of migration to Europe, Russia, the USA.
1
Scientists cannot tell us the weather, for sure, next month. Why should we belive their forecasts for the future?
1
The earth will be here for another million years, humans will not. We'll only extinct ourselves.
4
Measuring heat and humidity simultaneously by using a wet-bulb thermometer is the right way to assess impacts of global warming in humid regions.
Besides its lethal effects in humid regions, the looming climate catastrophe will have so many other lethal effects on humans, other species and ecosystems in the next 50 years. Thus, we have to start thinking about alternative ways of coping with these catastrophic outcomes.
One of them is solving the crises in climate, development and financing simultaneously by, following Einstein’s advice, bringing them unto a higher level of the world’s monetary system which also needs solving given that is unjust, unsustainable, and therefore, unstable. The conceptual, institutional, ethical and strategic dimensions of such endeavor are presented in Verhagen 2012 “The Tierra Solution: Resolving the climate crisis through monetary transformation” and updated at www.timun.net.
Besides its lethal effects in humid regions, the looming climate catastrophe will have so many other lethal effects on humans, other species and ecosystems in the next 50 years. Thus, we have to start thinking about alternative ways of coping with these catastrophic outcomes.
One of them is solving the crises in climate, development and financing simultaneously by, following Einstein’s advice, bringing them unto a higher level of the world’s monetary system which also needs solving given that is unjust, unsustainable, and therefore, unstable. The conceptual, institutional, ethical and strategic dimensions of such endeavor are presented in Verhagen 2012 “The Tierra Solution: Resolving the climate crisis through monetary transformation” and updated at www.timun.net.
Realistically, weather forecasters cannot reliably predict anything more than a week or so out.
This nonsensical prediction is Farmera' Almanac stuff.
This nonsensical prediction is Farmera' Almanac stuff.
How about "deadly cold" already occurring in northern USA yearly. This is a news story that really plays into the politics of climate change. How much credibility is in an article published in "Nature Climate Change". The American climate change alarmists are more concerned about this than citizens of Persian Gulf and certainly will use this to pursue their political agenda.
2
I've lived in some very hot/hot and humid places in this country and sometimes think about how many people would die in July or August if the electrical grid were hacked and all the air conditioning in D.C. ("the fetid swamp"), Atlanta, Phoenix and the California desert went down for a week.
2
The global human population is overburdening the natural environment. Nature will correct this.
2
What irony that the temperatures will rise enough to make parts of the Persian Gulf region uninhabitable, considering all the oil that has been produced there.
1
Hey folks, this ain't Eden. It was swept away long ago in the days of Noah. Climatic conditions since have still been under the oversight of God. Expect them to worsen as humanity continues its flight from his righteousness further into the morass of darkness: "Behold, the Lord lays the earth waste, devastates it, distorts its surface and scatters its inhabitants."
LOL. Thanks, I needed that.
1
These articles always present themselves as reasons to stop "climate change." That is futile. China alone uses more coal than the rest of the world combined, and with over 800,000,000 poor people, it is never, ever, going to take the political step of keeping them poor in order to cut back on coal. So forget it.
Thousands of these articles have been written about a problem we can't solve, so they should instead focus on moving populations to safer areas in the long run.
NO ONE believes that China and India will keep their more than 1,500,000,000 poor people in poverty to abate the longer term issue of climate. That is inconceivable. So we either accept it and adapt, or quit complaining about something we can't fix.
Thousands of these articles have been written about a problem we can't solve, so they should instead focus on moving populations to safer areas in the long run.
NO ONE believes that China and India will keep their more than 1,500,000,000 poor people in poverty to abate the longer term issue of climate. That is inconceivable. So we either accept it and adapt, or quit complaining about something we can't fix.
1
The world is watching the Syrian refugees stream across boarders and calling it a crisis. Imagine what refugee crisis climate change will soon cause. THIS is one of the reasons why it is a national security threat. Wake up America.... the time to address climate change is now.
What can we do individually? Two easy things that will tackle two main causes of climate change: Stop using so much fossil fuel--and demand the government lead the change to clean energy. Even more important: Stop eating meat--and demand governmental changes its recommendations on diet, as well as the menu it provides in government run institutions like schools, prisons, etc. The impact of meat productions on climate change is (surprisingly) even larger than fossil fuels.
What can we do individually? Two easy things that will tackle two main causes of climate change: Stop using so much fossil fuel--and demand the government lead the change to clean energy. Even more important: Stop eating meat--and demand governmental changes its recommendations on diet, as well as the menu it provides in government run institutions like schools, prisons, etc. The impact of meat productions on climate change is (surprisingly) even larger than fossil fuels.
4
So what's the big deal? The mantra has long been "evolutionary processes." If true biologically, then why not with climatic conditions.? Therefore, ought not humanity embrace these trying events for the sake of whatever emerges from the smoke? One would think so ...
Based once again on climate models that have been wrong more than not when it comes to predicting global warming, what are we to fear? Global warming, climate change and its humidity, which plants yet another fear of less oil and gas available to run our air conditioners at home, work and in the automobile.
Emotional stress, is causing a pandemic of sickness and disease being constantly played to tax our fears and exploit us out of greed for more power and riches. Ultimately, we need to look at who is funding all of these computer programs and we will understand why we are being told over and over again what we hear.
Emotional stress, is causing a pandemic of sickness and disease being constantly played to tax our fears and exploit us out of greed for more power and riches. Ultimately, we need to look at who is funding all of these computer programs and we will understand why we are being told over and over again what we hear.
1
Ok, I am perfectly convinced that climate change is an extremely pressing issue for all of us. But does that kind of reporting actually help?
As far as I can tell, the study does not say that people will be unable to live in the Persian Gulf, as many readers seem to have understood. It is saying that every ten or twenty years, there would be one day where it would be impossible for people to spend more than a few hours outside of climate controlled areas.
Anyone who has been there will know that the cities there are already being transformed into climate controlled bubbles. How much they want to invest to protect the working poor is an open question, although I would guess that none of the petromonarchs will care much if a few hundred or even thousand of the working poor die in the summer heat every year. Among others, because they won't stop coming. It is also a fact that this ubiquitous use of AC is a disaster for global climate change, but there is just no way at all that you can stop it in that region (now, if someone could teach the Americans that THEY do not need it nearly as much...)
As for the link between climate events and political trouble, this is not news, folks. The French Revolution was partially triggered by a decade of extremely poor weather, leading to massive crop failures ("let them eat cake", remember?). Better economic conditions, a well functioning global market and government intervention are the answer to that...
As far as I can tell, the study does not say that people will be unable to live in the Persian Gulf, as many readers seem to have understood. It is saying that every ten or twenty years, there would be one day where it would be impossible for people to spend more than a few hours outside of climate controlled areas.
Anyone who has been there will know that the cities there are already being transformed into climate controlled bubbles. How much they want to invest to protect the working poor is an open question, although I would guess that none of the petromonarchs will care much if a few hundred or even thousand of the working poor die in the summer heat every year. Among others, because they won't stop coming. It is also a fact that this ubiquitous use of AC is a disaster for global climate change, but there is just no way at all that you can stop it in that region (now, if someone could teach the Americans that THEY do not need it nearly as much...)
As for the link between climate events and political trouble, this is not news, folks. The French Revolution was partially triggered by a decade of extremely poor weather, leading to massive crop failures ("let them eat cake", remember?). Better economic conditions, a well functioning global market and government intervention are the answer to that...
3
This will be nature's way of bringing the global population down to sustainable levels. Mass die-offs in response to extreme events are not unprecedented in our world -- from the dinosaurs onward. The occasional landslide-typhoon-eathquake won't do it, and not even wars that kill off 30,000 here or 300,000 there have much impact against the ever increasing 7 billion. Nature will find an equilibrium one way or another. If, over 100 or 200 years, humans create an unlivable environment the Earth will find a way to expel that irritation. Within the scope of millennia a century or two to adjust to the human boil is a mere speck of time. Don't worry people! This is a good thing.
The critical sentence early on: "But the new research, which depends on climate models..." should be the red flag for this entire piece. Climate models are at their very best a guess at all of the complicated interactions that create "climate", and predicting the future based on present, and maybe poorly understood past conditions (cause and effect) creates even more uncertainty in their predictive value. The alarmist title is also a ploy to foster fear and concern, and will immediately politicize this issue, which is exactly what we should not be doing. I completely agree that we need to curb greenhouse gas emissions, but scare-tactic titles followed by uncertain science does not help the public understand the correct path we should be following.
1
Heat waves are becoming more and more common in Italy as well: this past summer the county experienced about two months of above 95°F, and humidity was quite high; it was as close as 2004's with an entire summer temperature constantly in the upper 100°F, with peaks of 104°F in late July, early August. I wonder whether in say 20-30 years time, northern Europe will get more mild summers and southern Europe is going to toast in searing heat during longer and longer heat waves, determining yet another geopolitical turmoil: more and more people will flee southern Europe to northern cooler shores, with never-before-seen summer activities in say Britain or Norway, while in Italy (especially south), Spain and Greece, most people will be forced to take refuge underground, with very unexpected businesses taking places in the darkness of secret clandestine passages most of the summer, sheltering from oppressive and unbearable mugginess and extreme warmth.
The Middle East already already has over 200 million people and also has one of the largest birthrates in the world (its often more than 2 or 3 times that of European countries.) By 2100, there will be at least 400 million people living in the Persian Gulf (I am excluding the India and Pakistan). Where will all these people who survive this man made catastrophe flee to but Europe, which will cease to exist as progressive and enlightened place. Frankly I am glad I'll be gone when this happens because I do not want to see a clash of civilizations, between people do not believe in freedom, secularism, the rule of law, women's rights (including birth control), peace, and socialism, and those people who do.
I probably sound smug but I made the choice when I was 10 years old (in the early 1970s) not to have any children based upon information I received watching National Geographic TV specials at school that our planet was already too overpopulated, the situation would only get worse, and I didn't want to contribute to the issue by having my own children.
I probably sound smug but I made the choice when I was 10 years old (in the early 1970s) not to have any children based upon information I received watching National Geographic TV specials at school that our planet was already too overpopulated, the situation would only get worse, and I didn't want to contribute to the issue by having my own children.
The problem with man is, he believes that his limited understanding of nature hardly for a few thousand years is far more superior and greater than the nature itself, which is in existence for billions of years. The net result is, crumbling of earth right before his eyes, slowly and steadily.
Repeated warnings to curb pollution, be it water, soil or air, have fallen into deaf years and countries, both developed and developing, are least bothered about the ill effects of such pollution. The wealth of nature, built over millions of years was destroyed so easily by man, during the past few centuries.
With temperature rising with the passage of each year, we experience drought in several parts of the world and steady fall in average rains. Certain other parts of the world are drowning due to melting of poles. I think, the complete destruction of this Earth is only a few decades away.
It is high time man understands that science is a good servant but a bad master. The more we rely on scientific equipment, the more we will lose our nature.
Repeated warnings to curb pollution, be it water, soil or air, have fallen into deaf years and countries, both developed and developing, are least bothered about the ill effects of such pollution. The wealth of nature, built over millions of years was destroyed so easily by man, during the past few centuries.
With temperature rising with the passage of each year, we experience drought in several parts of the world and steady fall in average rains. Certain other parts of the world are drowning due to melting of poles. I think, the complete destruction of this Earth is only a few decades away.
It is high time man understands that science is a good servant but a bad master. The more we rely on scientific equipment, the more we will lose our nature.
Given all that desert and Sun in Saudi Arabia, there's no reason it can't generate all the green energy necessary to power several neighboring continents in the 21st century - assuming it summons the vision and will - while simultaneously saving its people's own skin.
1
Methane heating could threaten to begin ending human life in 8 to 16 years according to Arctic-news. The Middle-East may be an early example.
Keeping earth livable appears to require reducing fossil fuels by 90% within 5 years. This seemingly impossible task may prove possible. See aesopinstitute.org
In WWII a bomber rolled off the line every 59 minutes at a Ford plant. Green energy systems are much simpler.
Recent breakthroughs promise to provide highly improbable 24/7 solar powered engines - as well as Geomagnetic Generators that could replace solar rooftop panels.
A few men and women can catalyze the needed changes without waiting for governments. Check the facts! All humanity may now depend on fast action to accomplish extremely difficult goals.
This is the moment wise, open-minded, individuals can make - what appears to be impossible - surprisingly possible.
Keeping earth livable appears to require reducing fossil fuels by 90% within 5 years. This seemingly impossible task may prove possible. See aesopinstitute.org
In WWII a bomber rolled off the line every 59 minutes at a Ford plant. Green energy systems are much simpler.
Recent breakthroughs promise to provide highly improbable 24/7 solar powered engines - as well as Geomagnetic Generators that could replace solar rooftop panels.
A few men and women can catalyze the needed changes without waiting for governments. Check the facts! All humanity may now depend on fast action to accomplish extremely difficult goals.
This is the moment wise, open-minded, individuals can make - what appears to be impossible - surprisingly possible.
1
For readers:
For the reference to the Finnish sauna, 100 Celsius = 9/5(100) + 32 = 212 Fahrenheit.
While 40 Celsius = 9/5(40) + 32 = 104 Fahrenheit.
For the reference to the Finnish sauna, 100 Celsius = 9/5(100) + 32 = 212 Fahrenheit.
While 40 Celsius = 9/5(40) + 32 = 104 Fahrenheit.
1
Val in Brooklyn, NY
I'm nervous though not surprised. But, Mr. Sherwood, a researcher is shocked about the predictions? Now that makes no sense. He finds it ironic given the region's importance to fossil fuels?
As a non-driver (state ID only) wishing no harm to fellow earthlings or our Mother Earth, I find it a cross between devastating and something akin to potential poetic justice--for all of us. This is a preview of the beginning of the end, which, as some have commented, has already begun. We've had this conversation before--and will again. Someone cited living ospreys and smog reduction as examples of why we shouldn't worry. I counter with the extinction of Dodos and toxic air in parts of China. As someone who dislikes shaudenfreude & doesn't want that to justice come, I don't believe in waiting to be saved (not happening) or for the last minute (already there).
The global community needs to act more responsively. I can't say proactively because we've lost that control but maybe we can reduce the damage. This means no oil, gas, whatever it takes. Sanders listed global warming as the biggest threat to national security. As inhabitants of a small ball floating in space, as another reader said it's THE existential threat. There's nothing more important. How do we stop it?
Submitted 10-26-15@11:58 p.m. EST
I'm nervous though not surprised. But, Mr. Sherwood, a researcher is shocked about the predictions? Now that makes no sense. He finds it ironic given the region's importance to fossil fuels?
As a non-driver (state ID only) wishing no harm to fellow earthlings or our Mother Earth, I find it a cross between devastating and something akin to potential poetic justice--for all of us. This is a preview of the beginning of the end, which, as some have commented, has already begun. We've had this conversation before--and will again. Someone cited living ospreys and smog reduction as examples of why we shouldn't worry. I counter with the extinction of Dodos and toxic air in parts of China. As someone who dislikes shaudenfreude & doesn't want that to justice come, I don't believe in waiting to be saved (not happening) or for the last minute (already there).
The global community needs to act more responsively. I can't say proactively because we've lost that control but maybe we can reduce the damage. This means no oil, gas, whatever it takes. Sanders listed global warming as the biggest threat to national security. As inhabitants of a small ball floating in space, as another reader said it's THE existential threat. There's nothing more important. How do we stop it?
Submitted 10-26-15@11:58 p.m. EST
2
Apparently this model did not consider the alternative prediction of a Little Ice Age in the next 30 years.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/10/12/were-closer...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/10/12/were-closer...
1
I guess the authors of this paper should revise their estimates of the year in which this could occur from 2100 to 2115. (The authors of the paper in the WaPo indicate that the effect of the AMOC shutdown will only overwhelm the effects of global warming for about 15 years.)
IF YOU CAN'T STAND THE HEAT Either get out of the kitchen or fry. You think you've seen a lot of refugees fleeing unlivable conditions in the Mideast now? Just wait until the water runs out and people can't survive the heat! Europe's really going to change its ethnic profile very quickly.
4
Obviously, Sepp Blatter did not have access to this report otherwise he and his cronies would not have taken the millions in bribes to award the 2022 world cup to Qatar where day temps are over a 100F
1
One good thing is that it will be so hot that nobody in the Middle East will have any energy to fight- over land, over religion, sect, holy ground, whatever. Finally there will be peace.
4
You're talking as if that part of the world--or any part--will still exist by then. Considering the way things are going, I'd say that's incredibly optimistic.
2
Imagine. They very fossil fuels producing wealth for the nations in the Persian Gulf will also be their demise.
6
I live in Jerusalem, which is perched on a mountain, and the summers are getting hotter (the statistics back this up). The renowned cool summer nights of Jerusalem aren't so cool anymore and the days are uncomfortably hot, though nothing approaching Gulf temperatures. People who never considered buying an AC have gone out and bought one. Or several. Since there is no rain whatsoever in much of the Middle East from May till the end of September, or even later, the weather is remarkably constant and patterns are easy to detect. There's no hurricane or even rainstorm to lower the temps. And at the same time that our summers are getting hotter the winters seem to be getting colder. We've had snow in Jerusalem the past couple of years. One year, parts of Israel and neighboring countries received more than 2 feet of snow in some places. Even Egypt - Egypt! - got a dusting. Jerusalem used to get snow every few years. Now it's become an almost annual occurrence.
20
Your caption on the picture accompanying this article should point out that the pilgrims are being misted like supermarket produce so they wont wilt in the heat.
5
Exactly, the climate conditions have been lethal for centuries.
Even if everyone conserves energy within our current societal and economic structures, this will not be enough. Wearing sweaters and turning down thermostats is more symbolic than real. The best effect of changing our personal habits is that it will make real a change in our attitudes, but the most important ways of making our attitude changes real are changes in how we design our society and produce our energy. Only governments can make sure that our local utilities are promoting solar or wind generation, new buildings are well insulated, or transportation networks are energy-efficient, so influencing how others vote is the single most important thing we can do. Voting ourselves is second, and wearing sweaters and turning down thermostats is third.
If the parties who want nothing done about global warming can get us to combat it by wearing sweaters and such, then they have won.
If the parties who want nothing done about global warming can get us to combat it by wearing sweaters and such, then they have won.
1
Natural selection in extreme heat? No such thing. Millions of people will just die because our bodies can't tolerate it. And we have already over populated many parts of the world that will experience such extreme conditions. Where are they going to go? We aren't hunter-gatherers anymore who moved from season to season seeking warmth in the winter or cooler conditions in the summer. What about food production or evaporation of water sources? Such extremes would have a massive impact which we have already seen in drought conditions in the US, Australia, India, etc. Our ability to adapt is not good. .
3
The heat trapped by greenhouse gases is cumulative, and policies to reduce the rate at which they are being pumped into the atmosphere are tepid. So even when people start dropping like flies from heatwaves, drought, floods, fires, famine, and disease -- and human population plummets -- the reduction in our numbers will not reverse global warming.
This is why I wish that observers who believe we can keep burning fossil fuels willy-nilly just so long as population (of poor, dark-skinned people I presume) is diminished would get on board and join instead in the call for immediate and drastic cuts to burning fossil fuels.
This is why I wish that observers who believe we can keep burning fossil fuels willy-nilly just so long as population (of poor, dark-skinned people I presume) is diminished would get on board and join instead in the call for immediate and drastic cuts to burning fossil fuels.
6
Absurd, there would be no heat to 'trap' without the overwhelming & primary driving source of energy provided by the Sun (along with other terrestrial sources). There is no self-sustaining feedback, atmospheric chemistry changes when the constituents are affected & (CO2, methane, among others) aren't as residual or stable as espoused or implied, the energy is radiated omni-directional & not very far, ... there are more complex matters involved but for the sake of brevity I urge you to research those topics. Many anthropogenic heat sources (attributing to the local conditions & phenomena such as the urban heat island), pollutants, environmental destruction, terrestrial & hydorologic alteration are among many deleterious effects readily ignored & indulged including appliances such as air conditioning. Carbon markets, offsets, greenwashing, & other fraud-ridden scams promote the myth of mitigation but guarantee no resolution much less accountability. Beside those issues, do you recognize water vapor as a combustion product & contributor to the supposed ghg effect? How about the geographic location of these regions? You even disregard that for centuries the climate conditions have been harsh in the Arabian Peninsula & Gulf region ... along with other pressures that affect survival (for many around the world) including oppression, tyranny, & socio-economic disparity that happen in many local kleptocracies (state, county, city, ...) across ScAmerika. Peace be with you.
Well, who could have predicted. We've only known this was a problem since the 1980s. Here's the 1988 vice-presidential debate 27 years ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVZo5m5uSug
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVZo5m5uSug
3
We are in an ice age. Imagine how hot it would be if we weren't!
1
This is a classic Global Warming Alarmist story. First, the Alarmists forecast that at some point in the distant future, some calamity will befall some part of the globe. (The distant future is always preferred because no one reading the article today will be around to find out if the prediction comes true or not). Second, there is a call to immediate action to forestall the possible future threat. Third, a compliant, non-critical news outlet, like The Times, dutifully carries the story. At this point the cycle is totally predictable. I look forward to the day when the media begins to examine the track record of the Alarmists, which has so far not been a good one. But I guess I will need to wait until 2100 or so for that.
8
When you become a climate scientist, which will take you at least another eight or ten years of your life, followed by painstaking experimentation and re-experimentation and tremendous scrutiny, maybe we should then take you seriously.
9
200mph winds in a PACIFIC hurricane just days ago.
163-degree reading in Iran last July.
Where have you been living????
163-degree reading in Iran last July.
Where have you been living????
2
Even if what you say is true, there's no good reason to continue to pollute our planet. We still need to breathe and drink water.
1
What I'd like to see, alongside these all-too confident predictions for weather 90 years from now, are specific weather forecasts that can be verified before we are all dead. I say, let these soothsayers tell us, along with next century's weather, what the weather will be like in, say, New York City 6 months from now.
1
That kind of thinking is the enemy.
3
That totally misses the point. The kind of change we are talking about is not typically observable over six months, and forecasts about average temperatures are hardly the same as forecasting the specific weather at a specific place at a specific moment. They are two totally different questions. My doctor can't tell me definitively what my health will be like six months from now, I still generally trust him to tell me if something about my lifestyle today in my 20s is likely to have devastating consequences when I'm an old man.
1
Spring will spring again.
It will be bad here, too. We are already feeling the effects of global pollution. What can you say about the future? If you are 64 like me and if you are lucky enough to live another 20 years ... my God, we'll be feeling the effects.
9
Not that I'm any great expert, but the way I see it, we can only solve the climate change problem if we come up with micro-economic policies that happen to achieve the desired macro-economic effect. To me, the reason why most Americans aren't all that concerned about climate change, or won't sacrifice to achieve it, are entirely rooted in their own personal economics. It's easy to support fuel taxes, for instance, if one lives in a place with enough density to take a train to work. Conversely, if one's economic situation dictates that one has to commute 50 miles to work each way, then the idea of raising fuel taxes because it will somehow delay global warming comes off like a kick in the teeth. So it's going to require more than moral scolding to actually do something about this: it will require concrete solutions across the board, and where any sacrifice is so widespread it doesn't seem like a direct hit to a person's wallet. For instance, if we want to cut down car traffic, we'll probably have to build a lot more housing in places (such as expensive suburbs) where zoning restrictions don't generally allow for it. If we want everyone using power-sipping LED bulbs, we'll have to subsidize it (someone on relief may not find it easy to spend $80 on LED bulbs). Climate change is solvable - but only if most people realize benefits from the policies put in place, as opposed to being force-fed policies that come off as if they'll be the only ones to pay the price for them.
9
For as long as there have been human beings. people haved migrated in response to climate changes. It is a habit we may do well to recall.
5
There are a few political and population-based barriers to major migrations that exist today that weren't present 30,000 years ago when we crossed into North America. Just a few.
Is this perhaps related to Hillary Clinton's email server? Seriously, what is going on America, please lead by example, the Earth needs you.
8
They better save their money to pay the air-conditioning bills.
3
Not only humans, but all plant and animal life will be affected by changes in temperature. A break low in the food chain means that all the critters higher up in the chain (including us) find their food supply in danger. If the rabbits don't get enough grass or water, then the coyote etc suffer too. Plants and animals also rely on climate cues for behaviors like migration and procreation. When their food supply decreases, and the temperatures don't trigger estrus, animals will be migrating in search of food, and babies will be born at the "wrong" time--too early or too late to build up strength on their usual food, before the harsh season (winter, drought, whatever) sets in.
A desert system (as in the Mideast) is a delicately balanced system. But all of us--people, critters, plants, and soil--in every ecosystem, will have challenges to meet.
Air conditioning will not be enough.
A desert system (as in the Mideast) is a delicately balanced system. But all of us--people, critters, plants, and soil--in every ecosystem, will have challenges to meet.
Air conditioning will not be enough.
13
The temperature increase will be a few degrees, and won't be significant for decades. It's already too hot there mid-day for people with any health issues or who are not acclimated. Further, the article ignores the immense wealth of the GCC countries. Quatar, KSA and Kuwait already have air-conditioned everything 24/7. If need be, they will be build below-ground walkways, shaded paths or the pictured mist-cooled areas, and simply avoid being outside during mid-day otherwise .
Yep, CC is happening, but it's not going to be 100 F in Maine or 120 in Georgia. Places that are now 120 F may hit 124, which is the difference between too hot and too hot.
btw, there are ways to deal with unbearably hot weather other than AC. Several thousand years ago there were cooling towers in the desert, tunnels dug to riverbanks, etc. Even old houses in the American Midwest have summer bedrooms on the first floor, below-ground basements, multiple screened porches and deep roof eaves which shade the house.
Sane people don't just wail helplessly when an adverse condition presents itself.
Yep, CC is happening, but it's not going to be 100 F in Maine or 120 in Georgia. Places that are now 120 F may hit 124, which is the difference between too hot and too hot.
btw, there are ways to deal with unbearably hot weather other than AC. Several thousand years ago there were cooling towers in the desert, tunnels dug to riverbanks, etc. Even old houses in the American Midwest have summer bedrooms on the first floor, below-ground basements, multiple screened porches and deep roof eaves which shade the house.
Sane people don't just wail helplessly when an adverse condition presents itself.
2
Sane people also don't continue to burn fossil fuels gluttonously as the planet heats up. But apparently those in power in our country--the oil executives and the politicians that they've purchased, primarily on the political right--aren't sane.
Incidentally, Maine has already broken 100F more than once (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700165200/Portland-Maine-hits-100-deg... and is likely to do so with some regularity as global warming increases.
Incidentally, Maine has already broken 100F more than once (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700165200/Portland-Maine-hits-100-deg... and is likely to do so with some regularity as global warming increases.
14
Maine is to Seattle what Vancouver BC is location wise. Three or four years ago, much of western Washington had almost a week of over one hundred degree temps. It peaked around 105 or 107. That was unusual to say the least. And this last winter saw snowpack at only 14% of normal.
Things can, on the relative scale, change very fast.
Things can, on the relative scale, change very fast.
1
It didn't "present itself." We created it, and it's happening fast and hard. Not like in millennia past. A sleeping porch? Really?
1
Sitting here in San Francisco where it is cold year round and the ocean water always in the 50's, I am thinking climate change maybe detrimental for the Persian Gulf but will be a boon for the SF Bay area.
2
Qcell. I hope your extreme short-sightedness and selfishness is an attempt at humor. If not, it is a clear illustration of the problem our world faces.
11
Exactly the reason I will left SF and can never live there again.
As Mark Twain said "The coldest winter I ever spent was summer in San Francisco. "
As Mark Twain said "The coldest winter I ever spent was summer in San Francisco. "
1
With James Hansen warning of 10 feet of sea level rise in 50 years you can kiss the two major Bay Area airports goodbye along with several major highways.
5
Perhaps Goldilocks can help us: "too hot", "too cold", or "just right"
Here is an illustration to remind us of the various recent predictions about what will happen. I don't dispute that the climate is changing. We just can't agree on how much it will change and what we should do about it.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/climate-change-warnings-o...
Here is an illustration to remind us of the various recent predictions about what will happen. I don't dispute that the climate is changing. We just can't agree on how much it will change and what we should do about it.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/climate-change-warnings-o...
1
200-mile-an-hour winds off the Pacific coast of Mexico.
163-degree reading in July in Iran.
Ice quite gone in many places.
I don't get the joke. Most of those predictions are becoming accurate with a difference of 10 to 20 years. That miscalculation makes you doubt? I don't care if it takes 100 years, if the trend is what was predicted (and IT IS, IT IS, IT IS), it should be more than enough for a responsible dweller of Earth to do something about it.
163-degree reading in July in Iran.
Ice quite gone in many places.
I don't get the joke. Most of those predictions are becoming accurate with a difference of 10 to 20 years. That miscalculation makes you doubt? I don't care if it takes 100 years, if the trend is what was predicted (and IT IS, IT IS, IT IS), it should be more than enough for a responsible dweller of Earth to do something about it.
Ridiculous exaggerations of that comic aside, the argument it's making is almost enough to make you think that as time passes, we gain access to more and better information, which we can use to come to more accurate and useful expectations for the future. Some people in the 1970s had a totally different concept of what computers would become, so I guess we should ignore present-day computer manufacturing. Or something.
So sad that certain on-the-take politicians, certain "fair and balanced" newscasters and some corporations still deny the grim realities of climate change. In another era, such people would -- for a price or out of sheer ignorance -- deem Newton, Copernicus, and Einstein quacks. Dante's Inferno has a special place for such ilk.
7
As a firm believer in man driven climate change I am not at all surprised by these calculations. However, we have to temper this with previous predictions of catastrophe such as Malthus or the population bomb. We as a species are very adaptable. There are presently large land masses on earth on which humans cannot survive without technological adaptations.
A hot earth is going to mean far fewer humans. Whether this will occur by natural attrition because of old age deaths not being replaced by births or massive unnatural deaths such as war and disease does not much matter. Our vision of life on earth will not be the future of the earth, but the earth will have a future and humans will most likely still be here.
A hot earth is going to mean far fewer humans. Whether this will occur by natural attrition because of old age deaths not being replaced by births or massive unnatural deaths such as war and disease does not much matter. Our vision of life on earth will not be the future of the earth, but the earth will have a future and humans will most likely still be here.
1
Kirk--so you're cool with mankind going through an apocalypse where some survive. If billions die then maybe the population bomb has in fact happened, and will be lethal. Your point is there will be a catastrophe but because some percentage of humanity will survive it's not that big a deal. Psychopathy?
6
From the few months I spent in the area during the first Persian Gulf War, the place is already too hot to support life, or at least my life. My red hair and blue eyes tell me my genes did not evolve to thrive in that environment.
But the solution is easy. Move to Siberia. Our ancestors thankfully had the good sense to leave places that could no longer support life, else we wouldn't be here to lament additional heat in an already hot place. 15,000 years ago, most of Northern Europe was uninhabitable for the glaciers covering the land, and the Sahara wasn't a desert. People stayed out of Northern Europe until it became tolerable and left the Sahara when it no longer was.
All that oil in the deserts of Arabia was formed in a time when it was lush. History, even of climate and man's relationship to it, is an irony-generation machine.
But the solution is easy. Move to Siberia. Our ancestors thankfully had the good sense to leave places that could no longer support life, else we wouldn't be here to lament additional heat in an already hot place. 15,000 years ago, most of Northern Europe was uninhabitable for the glaciers covering the land, and the Sahara wasn't a desert. People stayed out of Northern Europe until it became tolerable and left the Sahara when it no longer was.
All that oil in the deserts of Arabia was formed in a time when it was lush. History, even of climate and man's relationship to it, is an irony-generation machine.
10
Of course, 15,000 years ago there weren't 7 billion people on the planet. Where will they now migrate to? What will the people who live there have to say about the mass migration to their part of the world?
Evolution might cause humans to grow huge ears, like elephants have, so we can flap them back and forth and cool ourselves down.
3
Well, maybe they should stop selling us fossil fuels, which we burn, and which raise their temperatures? No, they'll just turn up the AC.
4
The rest of the world needs to prepare for mass migration. And it won't be just from the Mideast. The American Southwest will experience dramatic change too. In more temperate areas, like the Pacific Northwest, building codes, roads, infrastructure should be changed to forecast more people needing to live there. Northern Europe should prepare for mass migration, too.
6
Dear Readers, there is a plague of humans on the planet and its getting worse. The population of 7Bn people today is forecast to rise to 11Bn by 2060.
If you want to stop global warming stop having children.
If you want to stop global warming stop having children.
33
Sorry, the picture on my computer was so small, and without my reading glasses on,I caught "intolerable heat"...thought it was a picture of penguins! Quite frankly, I will be more worried about the Arctic than the desert in the year 2100.
3
By natural selection, some will survive the heat. Others will succumb. The rest will breach the borders of northern countries which will, by that time, be under shariah law.
5
Mo matter how hot it gets, people in the Mideast will adapt, evolve and survive -- at least regarding the weather. Regarding other Middeleasterners, maybe not.
1
You might not have noticed, but it's already too hot in the Middle East. Hot from war and everyone is fleeing north.
5
Last time I checked most Mid Eastern folks are in route to Europe, so they will be OK.
9
2.6 billion Chinese and Indians, and hundreds of millions in other countries such as Indonesia, want the same things we want and have - air conditioning, reliable heat, a nice house, a car, a washer/dryer, and the other things we take for granted. And that means more coal-fired power plants, and more oil refineries.
Meanwhile, the US per capita carbon emissions have fallen back to early 2000's levels, thanks to more fuel efficient cars and the lower usage of coal. And it will continue to decline.
So who do the Democrats blame for climate change? Of course, the US.
Increased wind and solar are fine, but they are a pimple compared to the growth of emissions from other countries.
Meanwhile, the US per capita carbon emissions have fallen back to early 2000's levels, thanks to more fuel efficient cars and the lower usage of coal. And it will continue to decline.
So who do the Democrats blame for climate change? Of course, the US.
Increased wind and solar are fine, but they are a pimple compared to the growth of emissions from other countries.
8
But it is accumulated carbon that is the problem, not just what will happen in the future. It's the entire world rising to the standard of the US that is the problem to be precise. It's not possible. It's also not possible to have infinite self-reinforcing growth with finite resources - forget about the carbon budget, just the heat output alone wouldn't be sustainable. That's the key - sustainability. I have no doubt that technology can be used to achieve this but the political will needs to be there.
7
So what's long with us leading the way? Blaming others and failing to take the moral high ground will not help us save civilization as we know it.
4
United States burns more gasoline / oil than any country in the world. We are actually one of the worlds biggest polluters.
1
Climate change deniers should be shipped off to the Middle East. If global warming really isn't happening, then they'll have nothing to worry about.
31
I don't know, if we solve global warming and that is a huge 'if', then what? More people, crowded onto the planet. The same reward seems to await the solutions to most of our problems. More food, more people. More water, more people. The common denominator is always the same, and therefore only the current problems change.
8
All you really need to tell you what's happening is a nose full of vehicular exhaust every now and then. Then multiply it by all those millions of times.
6
If this is true - it most likely is - we are one of the last generations to enjoy life in regular weather. I have zero confidence in the world's leaders to do something about this humongous problem. We will survive - no doubt about that either - but not before hundreds of millions of people and countless animals die. Let's just be glad we won't be around to see the worst of it.
20
Ironic that the region most enriched by selling fossil fuels might one day be so severely affected by global warming.
15
Oh yes, the predictions!
“In the next 50 years fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun’s rays that the Earth’s average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to ten years, could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.”
- July 9, 1971, Washington Post
“In the next 50 years fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun’s rays that the Earth’s average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to ten years, could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.”
- July 9, 1971, Washington Post
4
Your reference is pointless. Climate science regarding anthroprogenic climate change was in its infancy back in 1971. This was back in a time when people assumed smog was the biggest culprit of burning fossil fuels, but the clean air act soon helped to regulate other pollutants to lessen smog particulates.
Too bad we didn't also start curtailing co2 emissions during that time as well. All we did was create invisible choking smog which is almost worse than what we had back then since we can't even see co2.
Too bad we didn't also start curtailing co2 emissions during that time as well. All we did was create invisible choking smog which is almost worse than what we had back then since we can't even see co2.
2
Actually, climate change was well predicted in the 70's.
And even before -- notice this White House memo from 1969:
http://www.nixonlibrary.gov/virtuallibrary/releases/jul10/56.pdf
“It is now pretty clearly agreed that the CO2 content will rise 25% by 2000. [Over time] this could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.” -- Daniel Patrick Moynihan, memo to John Ehrlichman, September 17, 1969
There's a good summary of the history of the science, from the American Institute of Physics:
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/68/9/...
"
And even before -- notice this White House memo from 1969:
http://www.nixonlibrary.gov/virtuallibrary/releases/jul10/56.pdf
“It is now pretty clearly agreed that the CO2 content will rise 25% by 2000. [Over time] this could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.” -- Daniel Patrick Moynihan, memo to John Ehrlichman, September 17, 1969
There's a good summary of the history of the science, from the American Institute of Physics:
http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/article/68/9/...
"
2
Yawn. If you "model" the way leftists prefer, you say you get all this heat. But we're still waiting for an explanation about why warming hasn't increased over the last 18 years, while all the earlier "models" said we'd almost be dead by now.
Leftists have bludgeoned scientists to promote their view of the world to induce us to hand over our freedoms to them. Count millions of us as being against falsified data promoting the alarmist plan to cede all political power t leftists.
Leftists have bludgeoned scientists to promote their view of the world to induce us to hand over our freedoms to them. Count millions of us as being against falsified data promoting the alarmist plan to cede all political power t leftists.
5
The claim that warming has not increased over the past 18 years is an outright lie. No other way to put it. Anybody with common sense and a thermometer knows that's not true. The anti-intellectual wing of the Republican party used to be comical. Now they are just downright dangerous.
1
Here it is, the conspiracy theory again. Leftists concocting a theory with falsified data that they somehow bludgeon scientists (all over the world, have you) to go along with to take away your freedom, just like the other crazy leftist theory that guns are dangerous and killing people so that the government will take away your guns to deprive you of your liberty, and to do what.....what is the end game please tell us? What will they do when they win and you cede your political power?
2014 the warmest year on record. 2015 predicted to be even warmer. Last 30 years have never been below average. Glaciers shirking or gone all over the globe. Oh right, that is all falsified data? Please do tell us where to find the true data.
Did you ever consider that the parties that really have the most to gain are those that make money off fossil fuels - now wouldn't they really have the most to gain by trying to discredit the science?
2014 the warmest year on record. 2015 predicted to be even warmer. Last 30 years have never been below average. Glaciers shirking or gone all over the globe. Oh right, that is all falsified data? Please do tell us where to find the true data.
Did you ever consider that the parties that really have the most to gain are those that make money off fossil fuels - now wouldn't they really have the most to gain by trying to discredit the science?
1
Bill: Your attitude is ruining the planet for our grandchildren. Thanks a lot! Freedom! Yea!
1
Why are these countries not investing in solar power? If the median temperature is 100 degrees, they clearly get enough sun to aircondition everything with a net/net profit-loss energy system.
6
Since the Middle East will become uninhabitable, it makes you wonder if wars will be waged to colonize..........Europe.
10
Well the fossil fuel comes from the Mideast. The West burns it and the world's temperatures are going up. Various animal species having been moving uphill for years to adjust. Fish have also been moving north. Humans are slow to make changes.
2
The way NYT has been presenting this headline is misleading. If you read the study, this deadly heat is forecast for some specific regions of the Persian Gulf coast. The headline presented on social media read, "Persian Gulf May Become Too Hot For Humans". Now their homepage reads, "Mideast May Become Too Hot For Humans". While this story is news worthy, let's not get too carried away with the shock news headlines here.
2
Robert, with respect, the Middle East and the Persian Gulf are parts of the same general region.
One can easily imagine the whole area becoming uninhabitable though for different but related reasons.
Look at Syria, for example - they are suffering a drought which is almost certainly a root cause of the horrendous civil war there.
One can easily imagine the whole area becoming uninhabitable though for different but related reasons.
Look at Syria, for example - they are suffering a drought which is almost certainly a root cause of the horrendous civil war there.
Robert:
No leftist conspiracy here. Persian Gulf and Middle East are one and the same thing.
No leftist conspiracy here. Persian Gulf and Middle East are one and the same thing.
People always overlook the lethality of the humidity. The global warming will lead to increasing heat, and the heat is also the cause of high humidity. Heat and humidity, they together are killing people in those special regions, like islands that will be drowned by the raising sea level. But we still live on the safe land, and have no much feeling about the climate change. We keep mentioning the issue, and then forget about it. Everybody plays a role, saving any energy is a kind of contribution.
5
Tesla technology seems the only way to go in reducing fossil fuel demand. It's 'the traffic caused by by combustible engines. Reduce the pollution and the temps will come down.
3
Unfortunately, this is wrong.
Temps will not fall for several thousand years, even if ALL human activity ceased tomorrow.
so, this is already inevitable.
What we are trying to avoid is temperatures reaching a point where we all die. This is still a very real possibility. The recent paper is quite conservative.
Temps will not fall for several thousand years, even if ALL human activity ceased tomorrow.
so, this is already inevitable.
What we are trying to avoid is temperatures reaching a point where we all die. This is still a very real possibility. The recent paper is quite conservative.
3
But not quickly because the CO2 already emitted will remain in the atmosphere for a long time
Simply put, there are too many people on this planet for atmospheric and other environmental balance to be sustained. One observer mentioned that for millennia, air conditioning was not necessary. I agree with that. But for millennia, our Earth was able to absorb human activity at populations nowhere near where they are today.
Human activity is the problem, and the only solution is to control human activity, and that includes strict population control everywhere.
Given the political environment of religion and other forces which might require births for conquest, I am decidedly unhopeful.
Human activity is the problem, and the only solution is to control human activity, and that includes strict population control everywhere.
Given the political environment of religion and other forces which might require births for conquest, I am decidedly unhopeful.
20
We cannot wait for consensus on Climate Change. We can't wait till deniers change their minds and we can't keep using their denial as an excuse for us to do nothing. Sign up to two environmental organizations, one local and the second National/International. Do what you can, where you are, with what you have.
3
Why don't you get real and sign up for a nuclear power advocacy group? Any other solution is based on fantasy, but nuclear is a real solution. What you advise will literally do nothing. Less than nothing since you'll be putting your energy into something useless rather than something that could help.
Ironic that the region that built its wealth heating up the planet by selling fossil fuels is now feeling the repercussions from that bargain.
2
For further information on the future of the Persian Gulf, see Exodus chapters 7,8,9,10 and 11.
5
Malthus theory, anyone?
3
Wind and solar energy are simply not enough to replace fossil fuels to counter climate change. We need another true and tried method to make power. The only one around that proved it works in huge volumes is nuclear energy. Nuclear plants can make us the balance of the electricity we need, as well as plenty of hydrogen for clean transportation -- and do so off-peak.
But nuclear plants take years to build and they are not an option for procrastinating countries.
As for safety, the new generation nuclear reactors are self-monitoring and self-healing.
But nuclear plants take years to build and they are not an option for procrastinating countries.
As for safety, the new generation nuclear reactors are self-monitoring and self-healing.
3
It's a lot worse than you think. Chicago temperatures in 75 years will match west Texas today. I don't imagine Texas will be in better shape than the Persian Gulf by then.
3
Naw it will be fine. Texans like it hot.
Could we all take a deep breath, work on realistic solutions while not stopping all progress on those needs in underdeveloped countries, such as health care, that releave suffering now and stop this headline grabbing climate catastrophe seniorios that make me,for one, want to become a climate change denier. Get a grip.
2
The problem is, that many in this country refuse at all to work towards sensible solutions. Which is why the scientists are warning us, we have to change and soon.
1
C'mon, it's called Phoenix. 175 days over 90 degrees, 110 days over 100 degrees, 35 days over 110 degrees.
Your house still needs AC sometimes well into November because even though it is cool outside, the heat leeching out from the house-walls, ceilings, carpets, drapes, furniture, cabinets, closets, clothing- can create as much as a 15-20 degree difference between the inside and outside temperatures, with the windows open.
And no, it's not always a dry heat.
Today, five days before Halloween, it's 92 degrees.
Your house still needs AC sometimes well into November because even though it is cool outside, the heat leeching out from the house-walls, ceilings, carpets, drapes, furniture, cabinets, closets, clothing- can create as much as a 15-20 degree difference between the inside and outside temperatures, with the windows open.
And no, it's not always a dry heat.
Today, five days before Halloween, it's 92 degrees.
3
I have been in Phoenix, the humidity is low. I have relatives who live there. I lived in Chicago, a 100 degree day with 80% humidity. There is a huge difference when the humidity gets close to the temperature.
The compounding problem is that as the climate changes more rapidly and people move further indoors, they become progressively more disconnected from nature. People will respect the environment even less and the problem will continue to accelerate. I believe the noted climatologist and philosopher Dr. Seuss predicted this in his groundbreaking treatise "The Lorax." Only after it's too late will people despair.
Kidding aside, mass migration out of a politically unstable region is terrifying. Maybe they can move to the Antarctic, which will be quite nice in 150 years.
Kidding aside, mass migration out of a politically unstable region is terrifying. Maybe they can move to the Antarctic, which will be quite nice in 150 years.
3
There was a 1C warming 1800-1900 and another 1C warming 1900-2000.
Yet a few humans, about 7 bn, survived.
The 0C warming so far this century shows we are on the way to a similar 1C warming by 2100.
As few as 9 billion humans might survive it...
Yet a few humans, about 7 bn, survived.
The 0C warming so far this century shows we are on the way to a similar 1C warming by 2100.
As few as 9 billion humans might survive it...
2
It's still warming, that is why 2015 will be the hottest year on record, beating 1998. And actually we have had 5 other yrs since 1998 that were hotter. The oceans have had an increase of 1 degree in the last 10 yrs., the atmosphere has gained slightly because of the heat going into the oceans.
People often misunderstand the exponential function. A fire in a small part of your home isn't a problem since you can put it out. If it spreads and the burns the whole house down, it is a problem. It's like compounding.
To quote Jesus, "Live by the sword, die by the sword." Or for those that prefer an interpretation, "You can expect to become a victim of whatever means you use to get what you want."
1
How ironic that fossil fuels, the very resource that brought the Middle East into the modern age, may one day make it uninhabitable. This will make the Syrian refugee crisis look like a Sunday picnic.
1
These stories are getting embarrassing. Future generations will wonder why this new religion of Climate Alarmism captivated so many "intellectuals" in the early 21st century. Honestly, there's more chance of Jesus being resurrected by 2100 than there is of the Middle East undergoing some radical weather change. Yet, everyone who believes the Climate Alarmism religion would mock the Jesus crowd as a bunch of idiots. It's remarkable how foolish people can be when they insist on believing the latest gospel.
5
What's embarrassing are comments like these. High school chemistry is all that's required to understand global warming. The planet, including the Middle East, is already undergoing radical weather change. Now tell me the one about how cigarettes don't really cause cancer.
No more chance of the Middle east undergoing some radical weather change than Jesus being resurrected? Hope you know the Middle east was once wet and fertile.
If conservatives were truly conservative, they would embrace a conservative energy future for this country that featured the ultimate in personal freedom - solar collectors on millions of roofs.
Installed by people who live right in your area.
Local jobs that can't be outsourced.
An effort supported by public and private partnership.
Or highly efficient cars and appliances made right here in highly efficient newly retooled and staffed factories. US factories if we can keep politicians from enabling the corporations to ship the jobs abroad.
A more energy efficient economy is patriotic.
And American jobs are patriotic.
And Americans spending less on corporate controlled, crony capitalist fossil fuel is good for our ability to spend on other things which supports our economy. And that's patriotic.
So, limiting CO2 in myriad ways is not only a good way to address what our military has called "our greatest national security threat" (true), it's good for our environment (better to be safe than sorry on climate change) AND will make us a stronger economy.
Win. Win. Win.
It's time for conservatives to emphasize the word conserve in their handle.
Or don't they trust the US military any more?
Installed by people who live right in your area.
Local jobs that can't be outsourced.
An effort supported by public and private partnership.
Or highly efficient cars and appliances made right here in highly efficient newly retooled and staffed factories. US factories if we can keep politicians from enabling the corporations to ship the jobs abroad.
A more energy efficient economy is patriotic.
And American jobs are patriotic.
And Americans spending less on corporate controlled, crony capitalist fossil fuel is good for our ability to spend on other things which supports our economy. And that's patriotic.
So, limiting CO2 in myriad ways is not only a good way to address what our military has called "our greatest national security threat" (true), it's good for our environment (better to be safe than sorry on climate change) AND will make us a stronger economy.
Win. Win. Win.
It's time for conservatives to emphasize the word conserve in their handle.
Or don't they trust the US military any more?
11
I just read all of the comments posted so far.
I have never felt more hopeless about the ability of humans to alter our behavior to address this existential threat.
I have never felt more hopeless about the ability of humans to alter our behavior to address this existential threat.
13
I was planning on moving north to Boston or Maine in the near future, but now I'm considering cooler options.
Farmland in Siberia perhaps, or seaside property along McMurdo Beach.
Farmland in Siberia perhaps, or seaside property along McMurdo Beach.
5
If that's your level of logic, perhaps you should stay on the UWS.
And yet, big chunks of a powerful American political party, the one most deeply invested in fossil fuels and the me first, multi-car lifestyle, refuses to believe that climate change is an issue!
Or, if they're willing to concede the point, that maybe, yes, there's something going on, one of their standard bearers, Marco Rubio, asserts it's just too expensive to deal with it, and no way should we put the environment ahead of our economic growth.
One of the biggest obstacles to solving problems like this is the Republican Party.
They have simply got to wake up and smell the coffee and stop obstructing progress.
Or, if they're willing to concede the point, that maybe, yes, there's something going on, one of their standard bearers, Marco Rubio, asserts it's just too expensive to deal with it, and no way should we put the environment ahead of our economic growth.
One of the biggest obstacles to solving problems like this is the Republican Party.
They have simply got to wake up and smell the coffee and stop obstructing progress.
4
It's always nice and cool underground. Perhaps this is how H. G. Wells' Morlocks got their start.
3
well. it looks like the impending rapture is scientifically proven..
and by the way, have you been to Dubai?, it is "intolerable" now..
and by the way, have you been to Dubai?, it is "intolerable" now..
1
I think before the end of the century we will have a much bigger problem with sea levels rising and major flooding which seems to be happening every week now. These storms are are getting bigger all the time. I suppose if the Middle East gets too hot people could always move north which would probably happen. There's another aspect to it getting hotter that a few comments have touched on. Animals and crops we eat will have a much tougher time surviving. Insects will get much bigger and bolder. Like mosquitos the size of your finger. Also fresh water by then might be very scarce. It already is in some spots.
It looks more likely we will kill ourselves just with pollution soon enough. Air not fit to breath. Nowhere to put garbage. Seas contaminated from toxins. Anti-Biotics that create super germs that have no cure. Much of the Middle East is already in chaos from War and fanatics like ISIS. Maybe if it gets to hot they won't have the energy to fight anymore.
It looks more likely we will kill ourselves just with pollution soon enough. Air not fit to breath. Nowhere to put garbage. Seas contaminated from toxins. Anti-Biotics that create super germs that have no cure. Much of the Middle East is already in chaos from War and fanatics like ISIS. Maybe if it gets to hot they won't have the energy to fight anymore.
1
Honestly, I don't know how people can survive in the Persian Gulf now.
2
The Earth can't sustain 7 plus billion people. Hotter climates are the result of human population growth, nothing else, nothing more. Using less energy may help delay climate change and catastrophe for a while, but population growth will "win out" in the end (our end). The process will not be pretty.
7
Still, he said he was startled by the prediction that many cities on the Persian Gulf coast could be essentially uninhabitable by the end of the century for those without air-conditioning. “That is truly shocking,” he wrote in an email exchange, and added that he found it ironic, “given the region’s importance in providing fossil fuels.”
Ironic yes, but not shocking. Hoist by their own petard.
Ironic yes, but not shocking. Hoist by their own petard.
2
"...though he said some uncertainties remain in the temperature measurements and the models."
That's an understatement. Like the 'uncertainties' that lead to 'hide the decline', the infamous email chain among climate scientists a few years ago? Climate models have failed to predict temperatures in the near term, the predictive ability of these same models for end-of-the-century temps is about nil. But the scare factor is off the charts...Chicken Little comes to mind. Or is it "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"? Or both?
That's an understatement. Like the 'uncertainties' that lead to 'hide the decline', the infamous email chain among climate scientists a few years ago? Climate models have failed to predict temperatures in the near term, the predictive ability of these same models for end-of-the-century temps is about nil. But the scare factor is off the charts...Chicken Little comes to mind. Or is it "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"? Or both?
4
Nature has an ironic sense of humor and justice.
The region that is responsible for more hydrocarbon extraction than anywhere will be the first on our planet to become uninhabitable to humans.
I think we see here the first evidence of our eventual extinction as a species and confirmation that the recent reports of an extinction event were no joke.
The region that is responsible for more hydrocarbon extraction than anywhere will be the first on our planet to become uninhabitable to humans.
I think we see here the first evidence of our eventual extinction as a species and confirmation that the recent reports of an extinction event were no joke.
3
And as the region becomes uninhabitable, the people will migrate, or try to.
5
We can't refill or kill the dried wells with crude . Pumped out gas/oil resources onshore /offshore can't be replenished. Every problem is a solution and a source for innovation. New ways to exploit the heat and humid weather by converting into utility to benefit the mankind is the scientific track before us. Intolerable ambient heat may reduce the fuel consumption for cooking , increase the number of solar powered/electric powered cars on the road and more interestingly DC may dominate AC power sources and the AC might become an outdated technology of the
20th century in 22 century.
I wish one hundred percent of vehicles plying between Abu Dhabi and Dubai will be of solar powered in the middle of the century and there will be no diesel generator (power pack) as a supporting power backup in all industries.
One thought question - Will this heat give a good opportunity to study the behavior of Ebola virus in the high -heat- humid ambient
atmosphere and for a breakthrough ?
Caution - Measures to prevent 'Heat Stress ", UV protection and Skin cancer - more stringent and meticulous.
20th century in 22 century.
I wish one hundred percent of vehicles plying between Abu Dhabi and Dubai will be of solar powered in the middle of the century and there will be no diesel generator (power pack) as a supporting power backup in all industries.
One thought question - Will this heat give a good opportunity to study the behavior of Ebola virus in the high -heat- humid ambient
atmosphere and for a breakthrough ?
Caution - Measures to prevent 'Heat Stress ", UV protection and Skin cancer - more stringent and meticulous.
The mid east IS too hot for humans and too overpopulated .... it's awful, creates suffering and aggression ... ie. fighting/ wars ... they are the lab example of global warming and mitigating population, dare I say "control" ... the rest of the world should pay attention, they will burn out or they'll burn out the rest of us with a global war ... and/or we'll sure enough live a derivative of the same reality.
15
Isn't it already too hot in many Persia Gulf countries. The 2022 soccer world cup was given to Qatar where the temperature in July is frequently 120 degrees and everyone except the Arab countries criticized the decision. If it wasn't for their ability to use cheap oil to provide enough electricity for air conditioning, nobody would be living there now.
13
Those who are adapted to the climate are the most likely to win, eh?
1
Why is American political discussion so foolish and self-blinded about climate change?
Look at the list of mega-contributors who buy politicians --
From Fracking to Finance, a Torrent of Campaign Cash
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/us/politics/wealthy-families-president...
and which political party is responsible for the Supreme Court majority that delivered the Citizens United ruling that vastly expanded our pay-for-play political system.
Look at the list of mega-contributors who buy politicians --
From Fracking to Finance, a Torrent of Campaign Cash
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/us/politics/wealthy-families-president...
and which political party is responsible for the Supreme Court majority that delivered the Citizens United ruling that vastly expanded our pay-for-play political system.
8
Oh what a joy it is to swim in the sea of sewage funded by our resource-allocating plutocracy.
1
Finally, progress
1
Solar powered air conditioning and desalination -- not too early for the sheiks and imams to invest in their survival.
Or, just move everyone up to Europe.
Politically, it's already too hot.
Or, just move everyone up to Europe.
Politically, it's already too hot.
3
Solar power is way too weak for desalination. But I would not worry, they have plenty of oil.
1
Good god, the scientific illiteracy is astounding, and from those who crow about it most often - the climate change fundamentalists. These are projections based on statistical probability; there is much more likelihood of small changes, even if one accepts global warming. And that is just the beginning: What remediation to take - if any? What about the positive effects of climate change? Etc, etc, the decision tree gets infinitely complicated.
People like to the believe that the world is ending; it gives them a feeling that their "age" is special and that they are special. And irrational thinking has always been embedded in American life, from Salem witches, to circus husksters, to the ridiculous science of eugenics.
People like to the believe that the world is ending; it gives them a feeling that their "age" is special and that they are special. And irrational thinking has always been embedded in American life, from Salem witches, to circus husksters, to the ridiculous science of eugenics.
4
G, you're so right. Irrational thinking front and center in the ostrich behavior of almost all of the Republican leadership on the very genuine issue of climate change.
While some still cling to conspiracies, more have gone to the "I'm not a scientist" style of evading the issue.
Of course, the press is to polite to ask the proclaimed non-scientists "We knew you weren't a scientist, we've watched you duck evolution, too, but why don't you BELIEVE the scientists who really understand the issue?"
The boldfaced stupidity of it is, the Red State Plains could be a wind-energy giant, using HVDC cables to send power to urban centers. And the Appalachian coal belt has been seriously let down by their elected officials who continue to fight on behalf of the owners of a dying industry rather than focus on finding jobs for the displaced workers.
I'm expecting the Republican Party to turn around in the next four years on this issue - they're over-achieving on Gov. Jindal's worry about being the stupid party, and reality marches on.
While some still cling to conspiracies, more have gone to the "I'm not a scientist" style of evading the issue.
Of course, the press is to polite to ask the proclaimed non-scientists "We knew you weren't a scientist, we've watched you duck evolution, too, but why don't you BELIEVE the scientists who really understand the issue?"
The boldfaced stupidity of it is, the Red State Plains could be a wind-energy giant, using HVDC cables to send power to urban centers. And the Appalachian coal belt has been seriously let down by their elected officials who continue to fight on behalf of the owners of a dying industry rather than focus on finding jobs for the displaced workers.
I'm expecting the Republican Party to turn around in the next four years on this issue - they're over-achieving on Gov. Jindal's worry about being the stupid party, and reality marches on.
6
Nothing like the illiteracy of deniers and their fundamentalism with non science views
1
Let us pray. God must have made this planet immune to any conceivable human abuse.
So, we win. Yay?
1
And the solution is simple: Thorium.
Safe, abundant, and clean. Enough energy to put us to work to clean up the planet.
Safe, abundant, and clean. Enough energy to put us to work to clean up the planet.
But too few secondary neutrons to sustain a chain reaction, i.e., to react.
'By the end of this century, areas of the Persian Gulf could be hit by waves of heat and humidity so severe that simply being outside for several hours could threaten human life." Change 'heat' to 'cold' and it sounds like upstate New York. Humans can adapt.
2
Humans can adapt to cold with insulation, but insulation is ineffective when removal of body heat is the issue.
We already have the solution, nuclear power. Other things may work some day, but we aren't there yet. We can make a ton of nuclear power now, and we have the knowledge to make reactors that can use what previously was considered waste.
If you're against nuclear, then you're not serious about solving the problem. I don't know what your motivations might be, maybe you're a Luddite. But you're not serious.
If you're against nuclear, then you're not serious about solving the problem. I don't know what your motivations might be, maybe you're a Luddite. But you're not serious.
4
The problem with current PWR/BWR fission reactors is not the technology. Reactors are extremely capital intensive, so there's always those seeking any possible cost reduction, whether they are capitalist or communist. That's how you end up with situations like Fukushima, where the design basis assumed a possible large tsunami - even though historical evidence showed much larger tsunami effects within the past 1,000 years near the site.
It's technically possible to build extremely safe fission reactors... but financially? Not really.
It's quite possible to be serious *and* against more fission plants. If you want to get serious, divestment from oil stocks will neuter those companies on Wall Street. Dry up their funding (and therefore their political clout) and watch much of the opposition to wind/solar/fusion research mysteriously vanish.
It's technically possible to build extremely safe fission reactors... but financially? Not really.
It's quite possible to be serious *and* against more fission plants. If you want to get serious, divestment from oil stocks will neuter those companies on Wall Street. Dry up their funding (and therefore their political clout) and watch much of the opposition to wind/solar/fusion research mysteriously vanish.
Japan ring a bell? It is not a luddite position to be anti nuclear
Nuclear is troublesome as a global solution - Japan's disaster led to a great reduction in their use of nuclear and also to Germany's decision to greatly reduce their nuclear power.
There's also the fact that to power the world, we will be agreeing to nations getting nukes, and we all see how well that's playing out in Iran.
The fuel and waste is a nightmare, the engineering is complicated, the approval cycle in nations that aren't able to rule by dictat (China) takes a while.
I'm also in Chicago, part of the most nuclear state in the country, but I've recently switched my electrical supply to a company that buys renewable - in this area it's wind. So keep the nukes we have going going provided they're running safely.
Since 2002, Iowa's gone from getting <1% of their electricity from wind, now it's up to 27%. Texas is the biggest wind-power state in the country.
So it will take as many different systems as we can build. But nuclear is an expensive build, and fusion's a way off. In the meantime, the sun keeps shining and driving the wind.
There's also the fact that to power the world, we will be agreeing to nations getting nukes, and we all see how well that's playing out in Iran.
The fuel and waste is a nightmare, the engineering is complicated, the approval cycle in nations that aren't able to rule by dictat (China) takes a while.
I'm also in Chicago, part of the most nuclear state in the country, but I've recently switched my electrical supply to a company that buys renewable - in this area it's wind. So keep the nukes we have going going provided they're running safely.
Since 2002, Iowa's gone from getting <1% of their electricity from wind, now it's up to 27%. Texas is the biggest wind-power state in the country.
So it will take as many different systems as we can build. But nuclear is an expensive build, and fusion's a way off. In the meantime, the sun keeps shining and driving the wind.
We lucked out when Hurricane Patricia didn't kill anyone, which is beyond reason considering that it was the strongest storm ever measured and rose in strength the quickest. But, by all means, keep doing what you're doing, deniers. Nobody died. This time.
9
They (Saudi Arabia and Kuwait) etc are thinking "good try America", trying to scare them into producing less oil by such grim forebodings. The rest of the world is thinking - "poetic justice".
10
There's been research indicating that the best way to meet the goal of leaving as much carbon as possible in the ground, while ramping up renewables, energy storage and efficiency improvements, is to leave most coal in the ground, and exploit easy-to access natural gas and oil.
Pumping Saudi Arabia dry while not extracting harder-to-get supplies in deep waters, tar sand and the Arctic might be better all around.
Pumping Saudi Arabia dry while not extracting harder-to-get supplies in deep waters, tar sand and the Arctic might be better all around.
Who gets to produce the remaining carbon budget is one of the most pressing financial issues of present times.
I worked in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Muscat, and I can tell you that at certain times of the year - like July - it is already too hot for human habitation. Each day is just a series of short sprints from air conditioned car to air conditioned building.
31
What is the good of air conditioning when a country runs out of water?
Just like summer in Houston, eh?
It's a desert.
Only the young and very fit could adapt to and tolerate these extreme conditions. Even now, in Middle East, look at the jihadists and fighters. They are lean. They would have to be to survive now, in the climate as it is, in uniforms, being physical and active.
As one ages, those autonomic nervous systems, like the ability to perceive and react to heat (and cold) appropriately diminishes considerably.
Whatever the cause, we should remember, Nature always, eventually, wins. And in the process, winnows out.
Man, beast, plants, eco-systems, you name it: only the strong, and genetically equipped & evolved over time will survive any new climatic condition on the planet.
As one ages, those autonomic nervous systems, like the ability to perceive and react to heat (and cold) appropriately diminishes considerably.
Whatever the cause, we should remember, Nature always, eventually, wins. And in the process, winnows out.
Man, beast, plants, eco-systems, you name it: only the strong, and genetically equipped & evolved over time will survive any new climatic condition on the planet.
4
I am sure it will be alright. While I always like to point out the threat of overpopulation, climate change, religious extremism, mediocracy/idiocracy, I feel I always underestimate people's short memory and willingness to accept the new normal.
When 2100 comes around, scientists would have created something to keep everyone alive and fed. People will live with more limited and lower quality space, water, healthcare, and food but since they don't know better, they won't miss a thing. Think about it, do you miss free-ranged chicken, fish & chips that's real cod, custom made furnitures, reliable appliances and toilet that actually flush well?
In 2100, people will accept the world they live in and hear but ignore all the warning about 2200 and continue their Earth-destroying way. In the long term, humanity on Earth is done but before that, a small section of humanity that's the best and brightest of us will succeed in sending a few of them with specimen of all fauna & flora and all human knowledge to another planet.
When 2100 comes around, scientists would have created something to keep everyone alive and fed. People will live with more limited and lower quality space, water, healthcare, and food but since they don't know better, they won't miss a thing. Think about it, do you miss free-ranged chicken, fish & chips that's real cod, custom made furnitures, reliable appliances and toilet that actually flush well?
In 2100, people will accept the world they live in and hear but ignore all the warning about 2200 and continue their Earth-destroying way. In the long term, humanity on Earth is done but before that, a small section of humanity that's the best and brightest of us will succeed in sending a few of them with specimen of all fauna & flora and all human knowledge to another planet.
7
They ain't no otha planet.
7
i got my soylent green stocked in advance
Apparently you don't understand that there are things that humans can NOT adapt to. what makes you think another planet is the solution?
And yet the environmentalist continue to bey at electricity generated through nuclear power. Battery charging electricity for your Tesla or Prius is best served from nuclear. Reliable all weather twenty four hour electricity - best served by nuclear. Electricity generated by non- climate changing technology - go nuclear.
A single nuclear plant occupying 100 acres can generate electric energy equal to a solar farm covering 1oo square miles - and infinitely more at night. Serious about saving the planet - then push for the nuclear solution.
A single nuclear plant occupying 100 acres can generate electric energy equal to a solar farm covering 1oo square miles - and infinitely more at night. Serious about saving the planet - then push for the nuclear solution.
6
Nuclear?? Better to take the many $ billions of building hugely expensive nuclear plants and put it into solar tech. We don't want or need centralized utilities though the billionaire energy company owners will try to make us think otherwise.
1
I am an environmentalist who supports nuclear power. If you look at the research and not the hysteria, there are new generation reactors that can be built that are much much safer than the types of designs still in use today. After all, the Fukushima reactors were a mid-1950's design, one of the reasons they melted down. Because we haven't been investing in the building of reactors in some decades in America, we've missed out on several important advances in nuclear technology.
I'm not saying that there aren't risks. There are. But watching people starve and sweat to death is not my idea of advancing into the future. And if we don't start deploying new forms of energy production soon and in great quantity, we are heading for a dark forbidding future.
I'm not saying that there aren't risks. There are. But watching people starve and sweat to death is not my idea of advancing into the future. And if we don't start deploying new forms of energy production soon and in great quantity, we are heading for a dark forbidding future.
1
Thankful that many of our local commuter trains are electric powered. As are the light-rail in Hudson-Bergen County, and the subways in NYC. Only the huge freight trains remain diesel-powered.
Jersey City, however, gets most of its electricity from a coal-burning power plant. That must change.
Jersey City, however, gets most of its electricity from a coal-burning power plant. That must change.
Never fear, modern plutocrats will fund geniuses who will develop practical nuclear fusion in the nick of time, according to Time Magazine.
3
They might consider building a solar shields in outer space to block the suns rays. Made of light weight material they could be moved to hot spots around the world to lower the earths temperature.
3
Climate Change is the greatest single intermediate security threat to world peace and our country. The disruption caused by resource wars, migrating populations, cultural clashes between migrants and the natives in the places they flee to are just some of the issues that our nation and the international community should have been addressing years ago and desperately need to now.
We simply cannot afford the know nothings and the willfully ignorant that are resisting any and every effort to transition our economy to a more sustainable model, to prepare for the disruption already coming due to past activity and an international consensus to accommodate the huge migrations that will result in a humane and orderly fashion. That also means the burning of massive amounts of carbon fuel shipping stuff around the world (Globalization) will have to be curtailed is not ended outright. Localized production means changes to the deindustrialization that has been ongoing in these United States for most of my adult life. Our carbonized atmosphere and acidifying oceans cannot afford Apple flying iPhones from China on 747s for much longer.
The voters have to start paying attention and voting based upon something more than wishing for a woman President. In the recent Democratic Debate, Bernie Sanders rightly described Climate Change as the greatest security threat to the United States- Ms Clinton did not.
We simply cannot afford the know nothings and the willfully ignorant that are resisting any and every effort to transition our economy to a more sustainable model, to prepare for the disruption already coming due to past activity and an international consensus to accommodate the huge migrations that will result in a humane and orderly fashion. That also means the burning of massive amounts of carbon fuel shipping stuff around the world (Globalization) will have to be curtailed is not ended outright. Localized production means changes to the deindustrialization that has been ongoing in these United States for most of my adult life. Our carbonized atmosphere and acidifying oceans cannot afford Apple flying iPhones from China on 747s for much longer.
The voters have to start paying attention and voting based upon something more than wishing for a woman President. In the recent Democratic Debate, Bernie Sanders rightly described Climate Change as the greatest security threat to the United States- Ms Clinton did not.
23
So, we cannot forecast the weather right for next week. They have not got the hurricane season right for the past 10 years. But these guys are going to tell us what the weather will be in the Persian Gulf 85 years from now?
The arrogance of these scientists is staggering.
The foolishness that anyone would actually take them serious is beyond words.
The arrogance of these scientists is staggering.
The foolishness that anyone would actually take them serious is beyond words.
8
Weather and climate are two different things. Weather is day to day while climate refers to long term trends.
2
Let's try this on: you can't tell the difference between climate and weather?
Or, let's try this: it was obvious well over 100 years ago to early chemists that gases like CO2 sequester heat: it is an intrinsic property they have. But OK, some gaffer in an armchair is going to second guess some of history's smartest people.
"In the late 19th century scientists experimentally discovered that N2 and O2 do not absorb infrared radiation (called, at that time, "dark radiation"), while water (both as true vapor and condensed in the form of microscopic droplets suspended in clouds) and CO2 and other poly-atomic gaseous molecules do absorb infrared radiation. "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas#History_of_scientific_research
Simple observations.
Let's try a third time: what makes you think you can burn hundreds of millions of years' worth of solar energy trapped in complex carbon compounds and not warm up the planet? Really?
Or, let's try this: it was obvious well over 100 years ago to early chemists that gases like CO2 sequester heat: it is an intrinsic property they have. But OK, some gaffer in an armchair is going to second guess some of history's smartest people.
"In the late 19th century scientists experimentally discovered that N2 and O2 do not absorb infrared radiation (called, at that time, "dark radiation"), while water (both as true vapor and condensed in the form of microscopic droplets suspended in clouds) and CO2 and other poly-atomic gaseous molecules do absorb infrared radiation. "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas#History_of_scientific_research
Simple observations.
Let's try a third time: what makes you think you can burn hundreds of millions of years' worth of solar energy trapped in complex carbon compounds and not warm up the planet? Really?
11
The arrogance and foolishness of people who repeat the same thing over and over and understand neither climate or weather. BTW try living before there was weather forecasting. Tornados and hurricanes and severe snowstorms just appeared without warning. Snark is still snark
So what this report is telling us is that peace in the Middle East is now within sight?
3
Come on. Let's get over this. It's way too late to fix this and even if it wasn't, does anybody really think we could get worldwide consensus to do anything about it.
Jeez-Louise people, we can't even get the Republicant candidates for President to admit that Climate Change is real. Look at the comments below. Many of the people commenting don't think Climate Change is real. We're doomed. In our hearts, we know it. Let's deal with that instead of wringing our hands and gnashing our teeth to no avail.
As Holly Golightly said, "I want to still be me when I wake up one fine morning and have breakfast at Tiffany´s.”
If we want to shoot for something, let's all shoot for having breakfast at Tiffany's. There is a much better chance of that happening than doing anything about Global Climate Change.
Jeez-Louise people, we can't even get the Republicant candidates for President to admit that Climate Change is real. Look at the comments below. Many of the people commenting don't think Climate Change is real. We're doomed. In our hearts, we know it. Let's deal with that instead of wringing our hands and gnashing our teeth to no avail.
As Holly Golightly said, "I want to still be me when I wake up one fine morning and have breakfast at Tiffany´s.”
If we want to shoot for something, let's all shoot for having breakfast at Tiffany's. There is a much better chance of that happening than doing anything about Global Climate Change.
6
Wind and solar, and as several people here have mentioned, nuclear, are already realities. They have to be scaled up.
Contrary to belief that all problems associated with environmental degradation come down to the personal choices of the public in a free market, I disagree. The problem is the choices we are offered. The choices we are offered are determined by the people who want to maintain and sustain them for monetary reasons. They don't care about the harmony of earth, and they never will. Greed is rooted deep in human nature. The few always steal from the many. It is disgusting to watch. Global warming is the epitome of humans.
11
A front page story on how something "may" happen 80+ years from now? Based on flawed computer models? Chicken Little is jealous.
7
I thought it was interesting.
2
Yeah, let's ignore it. It's just science. Kids will be able to adapt. Oops, I don't mean to imply they will evolve.
3
Oh my goodness. This kind of thinking truly does terrify me. Because I love my grandkids. And because I have a brain.
5
Intolerable heat MAY hit the Middle East soon? Since when has the Middle East not been intolerably hot? I don't know how people have ever been able to live there.
5
Arabs have adapted.
I lived in the Gulf for a while --- the summer heat there is surreal. Stepping out there into the July afternoon sun makes your skin crawl with animal panic, hard even to describe to Americans outside of Arizonans, maybe. Daily temperatures in excess of 115 F sharpened by plenty of humidity, above 100 F even in the dead of night. It's a truly extreme climate.
My heart breaks to read this article not because of the doomsday scenario that the region might some day become totally inhospitable, but because it already is borderline uninhabitable for everyone who isn't a wealthy Gulf national or privileged expat with 24/7 heavy duty air conditioning in their cars, offices, homes. Even small upticks in average temp (imminent / inevitable at this point) will be the difference between life and death for some of the millions of low income expats working outdoors on construction sites, in oil fields, landscaping and cleaning windows, etc. They live and labor in awful conditions to provide for their families back home, and some basic humanity on the part of their hosts is long overdue.
My heart breaks to read this article not because of the doomsday scenario that the region might some day become totally inhospitable, but because it already is borderline uninhabitable for everyone who isn't a wealthy Gulf national or privileged expat with 24/7 heavy duty air conditioning in their cars, offices, homes. Even small upticks in average temp (imminent / inevitable at this point) will be the difference between life and death for some of the millions of low income expats working outdoors on construction sites, in oil fields, landscaping and cleaning windows, etc. They live and labor in awful conditions to provide for their families back home, and some basic humanity on the part of their hosts is long overdue.
266
I suppose that these conditions are also the difference between life and death for the people who are native, in addition to the expats. I hope your heart breaks for them also.
True. I have been there too. Rivers of condensation run down the exteriors of a/c buildings.
Thank you for the insight of your personal experience. As you say, it is already borderline livable.
1
Can you say "shadenfreude?" Oh wait... I live on this planet too...
5
Fear mongering for the sake of power and money. All based on long range models, which are not actual science, just tools. And since the IPCC acknowledged in their own AR5 report that their models correlating CO2 inceases with temperature increases were inaccurate, why would anyone take these models as gospel?
The climate is changing but the climate has always changed. Climate scientists will acknowledge to ths day that they don't fully understand climate. Why would anyone risk world wide economic ruin to chase the AGW ghost? Follow the money. The AGW industrial complex uses this fear mongering to line their pockets and increase their power, damn the impoverished people of the world.
The climate is changing but the climate has always changed. Climate scientists will acknowledge to ths day that they don't fully understand climate. Why would anyone risk world wide economic ruin to chase the AGW ghost? Follow the money. The AGW industrial complex uses this fear mongering to line their pockets and increase their power, damn the impoverished people of the world.
5
What is the AGW industrial Complex? How does it compare with the Fossil Fuel Industry in terms of money and political influence?
4
Yes, indeed, climate is forever changing, but it hasn't changed this fast during humankind's existence.
Please pay attention and try to understand the subject before posting again.
Please pay attention and try to understand the subject before posting again.
Got kids? Grandkids?
1
The Arabs will keep pumping oil until they don't, and when it is too hot, they know the route to Northern Europe. Unless EVERYONE has the intelligence to use the sun and the wind rather than fossil fuels, that's where we'll be in the next decade -- killing each other for cooler air in unbearably dense space. While Richard Branson will be transporting a few zillionaires to Mars, with return flights carrying rare minerals while Mars is destroyed over a thousand years, the barely rich will be moving further north and across the Bering Sea to Siberia; everyone else will become cave dwellers. Full circle.
13
We will have passed the Post-Modern and Digital age and entered the Water War age by then.
6
If all this comes to pass -- with or without extraordinary measures of carbon control -- the result could be the end of capitalism as we know it. The profit motive will not survive the massive effort it will take to keep humanity alive, while keeping our humanity.
Or, the price of guns goes way up, along with 40-acre tracts in northern Manitoba.
Or, the price of guns goes way up, along with 40-acre tracts in northern Manitoba.
2
They will keep only enough humanity alive to keep the system operating. Everyone else is surplus. Kind of like an Intel 486 computer.
No big deal, everyone will have migrated to western Europe by 2100.
5
Seems obvious that if the average temperature rises only 2 deg C if we dramatically reduce CO2 generation and 4 deg C if we continue doing what we're doing, then the temperature extremes will increase several times that or 8-12 deg C (14 to 22 deg F or more) so the places that now reach 120 deg F could easily reach 142 deg F which would kill many humans in short order. The average rise would only apply to the oceans in most circumstances. Plus, as others have mentioned, there a many positive feedback cycles that will accelerate the effects.
3
If it is inhabitable it will be because they deslinated the Persian Gulf to an extent that it will become a dead sea.
2
The earth takes care of itself in cycles over time, and we ought not to forget we humans are a part of nature. So whether we learn to adapt as well as learn at the same time to conserve on more of a global scale, the population will need to downsize as well in addition for humanity to survive....
9
At some point not so far off, Mars may be a better choice even without a space suit.
2
I believe that global warming is happening but c'mon
"Could be" and "may" used repeatedly in the article is not science. It is at best an educated speculation.
"Could be" and "may" used repeatedly in the article is not science. It is at best an educated speculation.
3
If someone told you it could be cold in January in Maine would you call it, "at best, educated speculation?"
Actually the use of "could" and "may" are exactly appropriate for this type of scientific discussion. These predictions are based on imperfect models that are constantly being updated as new information and evidence is obtained and incorporated into the best scientific theories. That's how science works. Scientists generally never speak in terms of absolute certainly but rather on the probability of something being correct on the basis of the best available evidence. What they are saying is that based on current models and evidence this "could" very well happen. It could also be much worse or perhaps not as dire. Scientific discourse is often frustrating to public policy analysts and the general public because we crave certainty or the appearance of certainty when we have to make hard decisions, but science doesn't work that way.
1
Everyone who drives an SUV and/or cranks the heat up to the upper 60s or 70s in winter (instead of putting a sweater or two on) and/or uses air conditioning on days in the 70s or 80s in the summer ( instead of just sweating it out) and/or uses more than a couple of light bulbs at a time (turn the lights off when you are not in the room) is partly responsible for this. Are you listening , Times commenters?
25
Anyone? No - hardly. Please, some consideration for elderly people, for the millions of people have medical conditions that do poorly in extreme heat, and for the millions of people who labor in the heat all day and who deserve some kind of possibility of cooling off briefly. Let's not condemn quite so broadly and mindlessly.
2
Surely, if we look hard enough, we can find a "scientist" to debunk this study. Assuming we have the (oil company) funds to conduct such a search. Then we could safely conclude that there really isn't a scientific consensus about global warming, it's just alarmists who horrifyingly want us to drive our cars less and burn coal less. I hate that, don't you, when I'm asked to make sacrifices for the public good? Totally bums me out.
2
The US government has spent around 30 Billion, with a "b", dollars on global warming research. But of course the scientists clamoring for a piece of that pie have no biases or inclination to make computer models that tell the government exactly what it wants to hear, right?
1
The hysteria - and I do mean literally hysteria - over global warming is only a symptom of hyper-emotionalism that saturates society, even the sciences. We see it in all sectors of society these days, irrational and disproportionate responses to nearly everything, from what the exaggerated concern over what you eat to the global warming.
6
What, exactly, is the scientific basis for your opinion that concerns about global warming are "exaggerated"?
Yeah, there are no real problems. Just ignore it all.
Yes. If you cannot see and feel it right this minute, then it's probably not true. Thank you for your help with the science.
God help us.
God help us.
Please note that the 200 year results have now become 100 year results. With the as-yet unknown extent of the "methane bomb" now being released in both Arctic land and under-sea areas, the 100 year timeframe could very likely become a 50 year timeframe, and then even a 25 year timeframe. Check out the website of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group at http://ameg.me to understand how real -- and imminent -- a threat this really is. Anything short of a WWII style mobilization to get to a net-zero carbon economy by 2050 or sooner is essentially mass suicide for the human race. Then we have to start pulling carbon out of the atmosphere to get back to 350 ppm or less (vs. 400+ ppm now). Since Republicans in Congress apparently can't be dislodged, they need to reassess their "I'm not a scientist" meme and return to the reality-based universe, where laws of physics and chemistry DO apply.
19
When the dew point temperature hit 78 near Chicago a few years back, the was considerable loss of life where the elderly did not have airconditioning.
4
As it did in Europe in 2003 -- was it 70,000?
2
When the temps here hit 117 degrees a couple of years back, the birds died. We've recovered some since then, as has the bird population, but drought comes and goes, and wildfires plague us. The drought of the dust bowl was not as severe as we've experienced in the last few years; our better irrigation and AC and lessened dependency on agriculture helped us this time. One thing about the controversy that surrounds it: it will be clear in time. I recall when a number of NYT commenters were mocking the warnings before Sandy. It became clear in time, but I'm sure the attitude of mockery may have cost some lives.
Here's the list. This is likely to be a busy page in the next hundred or several hundred years if we don't get our act together.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heat_waves
The point about the Times article we're commenting on extends beyond humans. Large mammals are constrained by how much heat they can sweat or pant or radiate away. So this type of heatwave would also tend to produce lethal effects on any large mammals in affected areas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heat_waves
The point about the Times article we're commenting on extends beyond humans. Large mammals are constrained by how much heat they can sweat or pant or radiate away. So this type of heatwave would also tend to produce lethal effects on any large mammals in affected areas.
Instead of facing the facts, let's ignore the facts that don't fit our "beliefs" as conservatives do and believe whatever we want to believe.
There, problem solved. That was easy.
There, problem solved. That was easy.
11
At least conservatives can analyze facts. Global warming "researchers" would rather shut them up with the RICO act if they don't toe the line. And their lapdogs in the Senate play along. http://dailycaller.com/2015/09/17/scientists-ask-obama-to-prosecute-glob...
1
Predictions are not facts. Illiteracy is scary.
NYT, like the "End of Snow" headline you had a few years ago? And the prediction of the end of winter in Britain by climatologists? Both predictions immediately followed by massive snow and unusually cold weather.
5
Oh really? Gone skiing in the Sierras lately?
2
Exactly!
I smoked a few cigarettes two days ago and today I feel great. Who are these "scientists" kidding with this nonsense about smoking being harmful?
I smoked a few cigarettes two days ago and today I feel great. Who are these "scientists" kidding with this nonsense about smoking being harmful?
4
G, one sign of warming in the coldest areas of the planet is an increase in snowfall. Think about it. Extremely cold air is nearly devoid of moisture. If you want a really heavy snowfall, bring the temperature close to freezing. It holds a lot more moisture and then, drop the temperature a little bit and BAM, lots of snow.
So, if you are in an area that typically gets below freezing, and you have "unusually cold" weather - you'll tend to have less snow.
We're in what's very likely to be the fourth consecutive "warmest decade in the global instrument record". The 80s beat the 40s. Then the 90s beat the 80s. Then the 2000s beat the 90s. And we're easily on track to beat that.
And please provide a link to the article in a science journal that suggested an end to winter in Britain.
So, if you are in an area that typically gets below freezing, and you have "unusually cold" weather - you'll tend to have less snow.
We're in what's very likely to be the fourth consecutive "warmest decade in the global instrument record". The 80s beat the 40s. Then the 90s beat the 80s. Then the 2000s beat the 90s. And we're easily on track to beat that.
And please provide a link to the article in a science journal that suggested an end to winter in Britain.
1
"Areas of the Persian Gulf could be hit by waves of heat and humidity so severe that simply being outside for several hours could threaten human life," ...this after a decision by God who asked the question, "What re they doing living there anyway? I thought I already made it way too hot for anyone to live there."
I believe global warming, caused by human actions, is happening.
But I find it a bit funny while reading the panic reactions from the readers. Climate change is a long process. Politics also takes due course. If a crisis is what takes to push changes, then we'll see positive changes when we are there.
Renewable energy sources, as of today, are expensive and insufficient to replace fossil fuel. Adopting them takes time. If, like some extremists on the right prefer, the switch happens today. Many will in the world will die of hunger, heat, and coldness. That'll be a much faster death process than climate change.
But I find it a bit funny while reading the panic reactions from the readers. Climate change is a long process. Politics also takes due course. If a crisis is what takes to push changes, then we'll see positive changes when we are there.
Renewable energy sources, as of today, are expensive and insufficient to replace fossil fuel. Adopting them takes time. If, like some extremists on the right prefer, the switch happens today. Many will in the world will die of hunger, heat, and coldness. That'll be a much faster death process than climate change.
2
"Climate change is a long process." It takes a long time to get going, but when tipping points are reached, things can change drastically within a decade. Also, there is a time lag, so today we are experiencing the effects of what we did 20 years ago. That means we have to get ahead of the curve very soon. If we wait to see it happen, we will be way too late to turn things around. Besides, nobody is expecting to switch all our energy sources to renewables this minute but it is necessary to start working toward that point today.
1
There needs to be a serious, honest address of how we are killing ourselves, being killed. There's no way to escape the ramifications of bad environmental practices. Everyone lives downwind of something.
8
what this means is that the most vulnerable in any geography facing this possibility will suffer disproportionally and this is what we need to focus on, not the ability of those with resources to buy their way out of this. There will be massive social upheaval as a result of this. Further, as just seen in Hurricane Patricia, one of the most powerful hurricanes ever reported, which blew up out of nothing probably due to the El Nino conditions in the Pacific, extreme weather will increasingly have devastating consequences.
1
Oh, great, just what the climate change-deniers need: the news that if we don’t act to reduce carbon emissions, lots of devout Muslims will die.
Perhaps if the study reported that all stockpiles of ammunition around the world would melt, we’d see a different result.
Perhaps if the study reported that all stockpiles of ammunition around the world would melt, we’d see a different result.
11
People will emigrate.
By the end of this century the oil and gas fields will start to run dry and the entire region will begin sliding to the edge of America's "strategic radar screen" until it finally just falls off.
1
Except for the hordes at the doors....
Too many people and growing exponentially. Nothing else matters unless that is addressed and fast. Not holding my breath.
8
No need to worry about overpopulation.... The problem is being solved by Russia, China, Iran, Syria, and on a grand scale by Darwin, Mother Nature, and the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
1
All of this pointless hand wringing ignores the obvious fact that economic GROWTH will save us again, as it always has. More growth will enable us to buy all the air conditioning we need, and this problem won't matter.
And no, that's not my tongue sticking in my cheek, I'm just happy to see you.
And no, that's not my tongue sticking in my cheek, I'm just happy to see you.
3
blaine, air conditioners use energy to pump out heat (kinetic energy) from inside a home and pass that heat to the outside of the home. Air conditioners make the outside hotter. The energy needed to run air conditioners comes predominately from fossil fuels. Burning fossil fuels puts more CO2 into the atmosphere making it hotter. We live in a container (Earth).
Take a goldfish in a bowl. Keep feeding it without changing its water. Its body keeps excreting waste. The goldfish doesn't end well.
Take a goldfish in a bowl. Keep feeding it without changing its water. Its body keeps excreting waste. The goldfish doesn't end well.
If you replace the word "Iran" with "climate change" in every Netanyahu speech, he actually makes sense.
25
Having spent a fair amount of time in India over the last 6 years, I am amazed that people can survive in the humidity in heat of the hottest times. (one day in Chennai ,100 people died in one day when I was there from the heat, I did not leave my hotel room). It was harrowing,
I believe that this article is like someone beating a door while screaming , though on the other side there is no sound of the screaming coming out. Metaphorically , Are we hearing this? I am a-frayed knot.
I believe that this article is like someone beating a door while screaming , though on the other side there is no sound of the screaming coming out. Metaphorically , Are we hearing this? I am a-frayed knot.
14
Since the vast majority of voters are too stupid to defend their own interests, we have to wait for those businesses whose interests conflict with big coal and oil to fight it out with them. Unfortunately, most big coastal real estate developers are barely smarter than the average voter, since it takes no brains to cash rent checks, while there is a certain amount of intelligence required to run an oil refinery. But eventually the smartest among them will catch on and clue the others in.
6
i applaud the NY Times for actually placing a climate change story on the front page (at least, online; i'll have to check my print edition).
note that National Geographic magazine has just devoted an entire issue to the problem.
there are so many other important stories to research that fall more within the NY Times editorial domain: the economics of climate change, the progress in energy conservation and carbon emission reduction, the politicians who are funded by anti-climate change forces, the laws passed in some states to impede or forbid useful climate change policies or even permit public officials to use the term; the impact on aquifers, agricultural use; transportation industry efforts to address the issue ... it's a long list.
i've been a loyal reader of the NY Times for over three decades and it's a disappointment to me that climate change is still treated as an issue less important than home decorating, identity politics, digital security and middle east unrest.
note that National Geographic magazine has just devoted an entire issue to the problem.
there are so many other important stories to research that fall more within the NY Times editorial domain: the economics of climate change, the progress in energy conservation and carbon emission reduction, the politicians who are funded by anti-climate change forces, the laws passed in some states to impede or forbid useful climate change policies or even permit public officials to use the term; the impact on aquifers, agricultural use; transportation industry efforts to address the issue ... it's a long list.
i've been a loyal reader of the NY Times for over three decades and it's a disappointment to me that climate change is still treated as an issue less important than home decorating, identity politics, digital security and middle east unrest.
34
Amen; don't ya just love seeing all the fashion articles on the front page of the online paper, knowing they've cut environmental coverage and can hardly be bothered anymore with stories on climate disruption?
The Times is merely the best of a very sorry lot.
People will be trying to leave the Middle East. The mass exodus from Syria is only the beginning of the huge population movements that will be forced by global warming. After all, Hansen et all foresee a twelve-foot ocean rise by the end of the century. That's a lot of major cities under water. Quite obviously, as he said, conditions like this will threaten the very idea of civilization.
We all have to put maximum pressure on every government on earth to keep the remaining fossil fuels in the ground, curb consumption of all kinds, and try to prepare communities to be self-sustaining.
We all have to put maximum pressure on every government on earth to keep the remaining fossil fuels in the ground, curb consumption of all kinds, and try to prepare communities to be self-sustaining.
27
To those who suggest that the answer is to decrease human population: that is a fine suggestion in principle but in practice it would have dire economic consequences. Witness Japan and European countries with shrinking populations and how they are using immigration to prop up their populations. The pool of elderly are increasing due to early retirement and increased longevity, and for every elderly person several workers are needed to maintain economic viability.
We cannot have it all - a growing economy, longer lives, all the creature comforts of the post industrial age and an undamaged earth. Something has to give. The future looks to have significant challenges to me.
We cannot have it all - a growing economy, longer lives, all the creature comforts of the post industrial age and an undamaged earth. Something has to give. The future looks to have significant challenges to me.
1
"Witness Japan and European countries..." Yes, witness the most highly developed countries on Earth, with some of the highest quality's of life in the world.
2
Witness India, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt, and Syria and sub-Saharan African where the populations are growing uncontrollably. I'd rather have Japan's and Italy's problems.
Guaranteed income, taxing the owners of the means of production.
Boy, if the refugee crisis looks bad today, wait till these tens of millions of environmental refugees head north. We better get a plan started on this soon ore the ensuing chaos will be horrific. Would be more logical to have this folks go south and east. Those parts of the world should be able to handle millions.
7
Scientists have consistently underestimated the impacts of Climate Change since they're making they're making predictions on measurable quantities with models tested against observations. Observation follows effect.
Plus scientists are the most conservative people I've ever known. Put something down on paper and defend it against extremely wealthy antagonists, the politically ambitious, the religious anti-science faction, and the average citizen (a person that doesn't understand high school chemistry) & they're not going to be going far out on that limb since so many want to see them fall.
In every instance the changes are happening much faster than anybody will predict, or can predict. Salmon dying in huge numbers in the streams in the PNW this year, the rainforest on the Olympic Peninsula has wildfire, ten years ago ocean acidification nearly wiped out the shellfish industry here. That last problem will only get worse soon.
Desertification in the Middle East will grow faster. The long hot periods will impact the poor first and they will do the only thing left to them, they'll riot. Fighting will increase and more countries will be destabilized.
Deny, wait for a divine intervention, and keep voting in the people who stall attempts to switch to clean energy is going to have consequences not matter what you believe. But it's not too late to save some ecosystems but we are destroying them faster than they've ever been destroyed before. Faster than speeding asteroids
Plus scientists are the most conservative people I've ever known. Put something down on paper and defend it against extremely wealthy antagonists, the politically ambitious, the religious anti-science faction, and the average citizen (a person that doesn't understand high school chemistry) & they're not going to be going far out on that limb since so many want to see them fall.
In every instance the changes are happening much faster than anybody will predict, or can predict. Salmon dying in huge numbers in the streams in the PNW this year, the rainforest on the Olympic Peninsula has wildfire, ten years ago ocean acidification nearly wiped out the shellfish industry here. That last problem will only get worse soon.
Desertification in the Middle East will grow faster. The long hot periods will impact the poor first and they will do the only thing left to them, they'll riot. Fighting will increase and more countries will be destabilized.
Deny, wait for a divine intervention, and keep voting in the people who stall attempts to switch to clean energy is going to have consequences not matter what you believe. But it's not too late to save some ecosystems but we are destroying them faster than they've ever been destroyed before. Faster than speeding asteroids
17
From my perch, it seems like nobody cares. Most businesses and many friends and family members still use incandescent lightbulbs. Climate change is completely preventable but is being completely ignored.
119
There is no preventing climate change. It has been with us for over a century and we have done nothing but exacerbate the problem.
We have overrun the planet and it is changing in response. This is not a matter of light bulbs or hybrid cars but a problem of too many humans and change that is now too far gone to easily dial back. We have pushed the climate change boulder over the top of the hill and it is already rolling down the other side.
Whenever I see articles that discuss climate change by the end of the century, I assume that scenario will be with us in a few decades. It is a disaster for us and most people are much too sanguine.
We have overrun the planet and it is changing in response. This is not a matter of light bulbs or hybrid cars but a problem of too many humans and change that is now too far gone to easily dial back. We have pushed the climate change boulder over the top of the hill and it is already rolling down the other side.
Whenever I see articles that discuss climate change by the end of the century, I assume that scenario will be with us in a few decades. It is a disaster for us and most people are much too sanguine.
1
Then get off your perch. Be a leader and be prepared to be disliked.
Explain the problem and stop blaming the energy companies for everything.
It is the public which is consuming fossil fuels. Do you know how batteries work? Then learn and maybe you will come up up with a solution.
Stop complaining and start marching and corner your elected representatives
and tell them to do something or they will be voted out of office. That is
how the system works. To revive a popular 1960s slogan: "The people united will never be defeated."
Explain the problem and stop blaming the energy companies for everything.
It is the public which is consuming fossil fuels. Do you know how batteries work? Then learn and maybe you will come up up with a solution.
Stop complaining and start marching and corner your elected representatives
and tell them to do something or they will be voted out of office. That is
how the system works. To revive a popular 1960s slogan: "The people united will never be defeated."
There are many contributions to environmental destruction, ecosystem disruption, bioservice obliteration, socio-economic disparity, & supposed anthropogenic climate change, yet the promoted scams include fraud-ridden greenwashing indulgences. Irresponsible & unaccountable carbon markets that do nothing about resolving emissions or guaranteeing any solution, repackaged consumption, resource extraction, mythical mitigation, absurd offsets, externalizing costs & risks, land mismanagement, subsidization, are among other destructive & deleterious indulgences. Beside those absurd scams there is obfuscation about the supposed ghg effect & other atmospheric components (as well as the planetary & extra-terrestrial influences especially the Solar energy) where combustion also produces water vapor yet completely ignored. Also, the geography of areas, such as the region mentioned in this article, has much to do about the climate that has been lethal for millenia. Anyway, enough for you to ponder, soldier on ...
Powerful religious and political (including both right and left status-quo) forces are aligned to promote overpopulation, which is the root cause of all global environmental problems. So the interesting question becomes not what some people "want", but rather what is going to happen as nature prevails in our ongoing environmental disaster.
24
All major global environmental problems have been caused by industrialization. The poor, overpopulated countries have little industry and barely pollute. Isn't it ironic that those who have abused the earth to amass wealth blame the innocent poor?
1
Humanity itself is the source of The Sixth Global Extinction.
1
A key site included in the hajj ritual is the 300 or so meters walk between the rocks of safa and marwa next to the kaaba where Hagar (wife of Abraham) is supposed to have walked between under a scorching son looking for water for her infant son Ishmael. This walk between the two rocks (and the rocks) are now all indoors and airconditioned. So, if demand for saudi oil continues, there is little doubt other sites wil be turned into indoor, airconditioned places as well. The people to be concerned about are not the ultra-rich saudis and those rich enough to do the hajj, but the poor people in the tropical areas.
4
A 35 wet bulb temperature converts to 95 Fahrenheit. Maximum wet bulb temperatures in Phoenix approach 80, so the difference is substantial. Adding 15 degrees to our hottest days, which approach 120, is mind boggling. But there are a few countervailing considerations. Unmanageable mid-day heat is generally manageable until about 11 am and after 6 pm. Staying out of the sun reduces perceived heat by about 15 degrees. And, of course, effective A/C removes all temperature risk. To the extent those in the Persian Gulf can avail themselves of such relief, they could survive the heat. . What people cannot do is to be outside and exposed to the sun during the hottest part of the day, nor can they survive without significant afternoon relief from air conditioning. The wealthy Persian countries will be mildly inconvenienced. The poor ones won't have a chance. As for the Iranians, they'll need nuclear power to keep the A/C going.
2
So, when Senator Sanders argued that climate change is our number one enemy, they laughed.
Any candidate for the Presidency of the United States who denies that climate change is a major concern for life and livelihood on our planet should automatically be disqualified from the forum.
Climate change denial syndrome is running a muck in some areas of American culture.
Any candidate for the Presidency of the United States who denies that climate change is a major concern for life and livelihood on our planet should automatically be disqualified from the forum.
Climate change denial syndrome is running a muck in some areas of American culture.
49
One basic difference between the animals that have perished is the fact that Humans are more adaptable than the other animals who perished. Presently Humans inhabit this planet from -96 F to +129 just in Asia alone whereas in North America our range is from 134 F to -81 F in Yukon. Humans are very adaptable and smart given time they would adapt and invent to sustain the extremes.
I am sure our scientist are working hard at coming up with mechanism that we would be able to sustain it. We should spend our energies in developing methods to counter it rather than crying wolf.
Not to worry we humans are capable of rather ingenious ways to sustain ourselves, or maybe the new business opportunities would make it possible for some of us to become instant trillionaires then.
I am sure our scientist are working hard at coming up with mechanism that we would be able to sustain it. We should spend our energies in developing methods to counter it rather than crying wolf.
Not to worry we humans are capable of rather ingenious ways to sustain ourselves, or maybe the new business opportunities would make it possible for some of us to become instant trillionaires then.
4
"Not to worry we humans are capable of rather ingenious ways to sustain ourselves"
We could build domes over our cities and then air-condition them or just move them underground where temperatures would remain much lower.
We could build domes over our cities and then air-condition them or just move them underground where temperatures would remain much lower.
Unless we can quickly work together on a global scale toward a single goal of saving the environment (and ourselves), we'll all suffer, now, and as far into the future as we can imagine.. It doesn't help that the US political system is so heavily influenced by the energy industry.
Voters need to rise up and make their will known on this issue. Write your representatives today to let them know you demand aggressive government action to reduce emissions in the US and Globally.
I'm contacting my representatives David Schweikert and Jeff Flake today. Do the same, make your voice heard!
Voters need to rise up and make their will known on this issue. Write your representatives today to let them know you demand aggressive government action to reduce emissions in the US and Globally.
I'm contacting my representatives David Schweikert and Jeff Flake today. Do the same, make your voice heard!
11
All environmental problems are a result of too many humans. One billion people on earth could all live like Americans or Europeans with minor environmental impact. Seven (rising to ten or twelve) billion are destroying the planet and its atmosphere at a terrifying rate, yet no politician dares talk about reducing the birth rate. Ecologists know that overpopulation is eventually corrected by a massive die-off, but that seems a poor way for a supposedly intelligent species to deal with its problems.
88
The numbers of humans are of course a factor, but the WAY we produce energy, the amount we consume, and the huge footprint of even relatively modest populations are at least as important in the calculus. We could vastly reduce CO2 and methane emissions if we'd actually try.
1
JBR, the intelligent species certainly doesn't exist on this planet. ET has gone home.
One part of the equation that seems to be missing in these climate change analyses is the most obvious--a decrease in the long-term human population.
The latest UN population predictions peg the global population at 9.7 billion by 2050--300 million more people than was previously predicted in the last batch of UN population estimates for 2050. Most of this bump in population will come from Sub-Saharan Africa. Iran, Brazil and China had incredibly sharp downturns in fertility rates in around 20 years, from 4.5 to 6 children per woman down to 1.5 children per woman. China's sharp downturn in fertility rates depended on widespread violations of human rights and incredible government coercion. Iran and Brazil were completely unexpected sharp downturns and therefore not dependent on government coercion. Iran's is exceptional because it happened after the extremely conservative government of the ayatollahs was installed in 1979. The independent variables in both Brazil and Iran were probably widespread availability of contraceptives, elective birth control and women's ability to control their reproductive rights.
To avoid that surfeit of 300 million people, and to decrease 2050 populations even more, Sub-Saharan Africa must, MUST start to implement Brazilian and Iranian contraceptive and birth control policies as soon as possible. This is the only feasible way that carbon and other dangerous greenhouse gases will be definitively reduced over the long term.
The latest UN population predictions peg the global population at 9.7 billion by 2050--300 million more people than was previously predicted in the last batch of UN population estimates for 2050. Most of this bump in population will come from Sub-Saharan Africa. Iran, Brazil and China had incredibly sharp downturns in fertility rates in around 20 years, from 4.5 to 6 children per woman down to 1.5 children per woman. China's sharp downturn in fertility rates depended on widespread violations of human rights and incredible government coercion. Iran and Brazil were completely unexpected sharp downturns and therefore not dependent on government coercion. Iran's is exceptional because it happened after the extremely conservative government of the ayatollahs was installed in 1979. The independent variables in both Brazil and Iran were probably widespread availability of contraceptives, elective birth control and women's ability to control their reproductive rights.
To avoid that surfeit of 300 million people, and to decrease 2050 populations even more, Sub-Saharan Africa must, MUST start to implement Brazilian and Iranian contraceptive and birth control policies as soon as possible. This is the only feasible way that carbon and other dangerous greenhouse gases will be definitively reduced over the long term.
46
But...the net carbon footprint of a sub Saharan African is far, far lower than the average American or European. Those who are most affected and contribute relatively little to the problem must pay the stiffest price, eh?
Heck Florida is essentially uninhabitable without air conditioning. Is it really big news that Dubai is essentially uninhabitable without air conditioning? And, hand-wringing about the evils of air-conditioning nonwithstanding, is this really all that different from people living in brutal frigid places that are not survivable without heating? Like, say, New York.
8
50C (122F) is pretty hot. Too hot to stay out for long. And that's about the temperature in the foundation pits on construction projects.
Well, if they say this will happen by the year 2100…it will likely occur far sooner than that, maybe 2050...all other models have had to be revised closer to our own time.
What will it take to stop this madness, as we destroy the conditions for life itself?
What will it take to stop this madness, as we destroy the conditions for life itself?
10
This is perhaps not a very informed study. Almost nobody in the gulf lives without air conditioning and it is already well above 38 C and dangerous to be outside in the middle of the day in summer. A temperature of 45 C with 70-80 percent humidity is quite normal from June to August. People have adapted to this by working early in the morning and late in the day if they work outside, avoiding work at peak heat hours 12-3, and by air conditioning every single space possible. Even the very poorest have an old air conditioning unit as it is not possible to sleep without one. An increase in temperature is not going to change this, people will just crank the AC, and the rest of the year, basically Oct.-May, is mostly well below 38 degrees and would not be greatly affected by minor increases in temperature. It is actually this combination of energy and AC that allowed these countries to boom in the last decades, and as long as the oil doesn't run out, then the AC won't either.
4
Actually, any large natural disaster could stop the flow of power temporally at least, and in the hot season it could very deadly.
A sensible comment buried in piles of panic ones. You see, in a way, the left wing isn't that different from the right wing - neither let truth and common sense get in the way of their ideology.
1
I think you might be confusing degrees celcius with "wet-bulb temperatures" which means, as I understand it 35C at 100% humidity. Pakistan endured a stretch of wet-bulb temperatures of 33C this summer (which were 40-45C and 50% humidity) that killed 900 people. There has yet to be a reading of 35C "wet-bulb" temperature as this story notes.
4
High heat, sunlight, and humidity. Might make for a great solar panel, salt water evaporation, and water-from-condensation industry. Stop use the fossil fuel and use what nature brung ya.
17
I've thought for several decades that the only way to bring about peace in the Middle East would be if it became uninhabitable and uninhabited. This wasn't the scenario I envisioned, though.
* For those suggesting that swamp coolers are efficient [ and by implication, a solution to the problem described in this piece ], I find it hard to imagine people carrying around these coolers with them. Are you suggesting that people stop going outside, except to scurry from one enclosed space to another? More than they already do, that is?
* For those suggesting that swamp coolers are efficient [ and by implication, a solution to the problem described in this piece ], I find it hard to imagine people carrying around these coolers with them. Are you suggesting that people stop going outside, except to scurry from one enclosed space to another? More than they already do, that is?
7
This is why Europe needs to come up with a long term policy for dealing with refugees. They will be facing tens (maybe hundreds) of millions of climate refugees over the next 20-80 years.
15
Alarmists have overplayed their hand. I've been hearing about impending doom since I was born and none of it has come to pass. Inaction on climate change in America is a result of having heard wolf cried too many times.
4
I hear the words of Jackson Browne echoing throughout these denial-driven comments: "Don't think it won't happen, just because it hasn't happened yet."
Climate. It's longer than weather.
We put in power those who tell us, produce all the carbon you want and who cares about the effects. We can't do anything anyway. Or the person who tell us climate change is just a construct of those liberals who make money off the concept. When the piper comes around to collect his pay then we will end up demonize get those who are the victims of our folly.
3
Our media and our politicians love to tell us horror stories because tales of doom tend to command larger audiences. But in the name of good public policy, we desperately need more balanced reporting. For instance I wish some brilliant scientist would write an article celebrating the vast new tracts of habitable territory that will become available as the Northern Hemisphere grows warmer. Hot spots are a problem, but a far greater portion of Earth is currently uninhabitable because the climate is too cold. Is it possible that Climate Change could have beneficial consequences that offset the negatives? Gosh, if true, that would cost the Prophets of Doomsday billions.
1
Yes, but who's going to populate that land? Will Canada and Russia allow millions of refugees from the Middle East aand Africa to settle on newly fertile tundra in the Yukon and Siberia?
To me it seems more important how vast tracts of populated land will become uninhabitable underwater (e.g. Florida, Bangladesh, Maldives, etc), because of the rising oceans. But yes, some areas will get warmer that will benefit a small minority of people; Journeyman Pictures on Youtube did a feature about how the warming temperatures allow farmers to grow new crops in Greenland. That being said, you have to get real "Prophets of Doomsday"? There are far more vested interests (e.g. oil companies) who gain from denying science.
It's a bit ironic that the very epicenter of the fossil fuel industry will be among the first to suffer the ultimate catastrophic consequence of the climate change the burning of its oil has caused. In fact, some speculate that the Syrian civil war now in its fourth year was caused by crop failures due to global warming. The effects of that war, as staggering as they are, are minor when compared to the collapse of the entire region as a place suitable for human habitation. It's time to push aside the petty politics of climate denial and act now to save our planet before we become the next endangered species facing extinction by our own ignorance and denial.
4
Good luck on controlling the climate of an entire planet. Let me know when you have finally had enough of governments spending all your $$$ on failure/scams.
2
You are saying that we don't affect the climate with fossil fuels, right? That would be false.
I am so glad I'll be dead within 50 years and don't have any kids to worry about in this harsh new world of our own making. Let the Koch-lovers stick their heads in the sand...as it gets hotter and hotter and par-boils what's left of their brains. We deserve extinction. Scientists should ready markers that can be found in the geologic record millions of years hence to warn the next "intelligent" species not to do what we did. I hope Squid Sapiens pays attention.
41
The Kochs won't live that long either, especially since one of the brothers has quite serious prostate cancer.
1
I didn't realize we needed a scientific report to confirm the physics of heat transfer. Have you ever heard of a swamp cooler? You basically pour water on a sponge and point fan at it. Eureka! Efficient cooling mysteriously achieved through the power of convection. Remarkably effective in dry climates assuming you have an abundant water supply.
You might have missed that invention if you live in the mid-Atlantic though. Turns out evaporative cooling techniques don't work so well in high humidity. You can't successfully transfer heat through a fluid mechanism if the air is already thoroughly saturated. Think backyard hammock on a muggy day. Remember house fans in wet weather. If your dog can talk, ask them to explain panting.
The disturbing element here isn't actually the phenomenon itself but the rate of change. If you consider an entire geographical region becoming incapable of naturally supporting human life within a century, you should find justifiable reason for alarm. We can't crank up the A/C on the middle east or anywhere else. Something tells me people will not politely consign themselves to becoming unfortunate losers in the roulette wheel of climate change.
You might have missed that invention if you live in the mid-Atlantic though. Turns out evaporative cooling techniques don't work so well in high humidity. You can't successfully transfer heat through a fluid mechanism if the air is already thoroughly saturated. Think backyard hammock on a muggy day. Remember house fans in wet weather. If your dog can talk, ask them to explain panting.
The disturbing element here isn't actually the phenomenon itself but the rate of change. If you consider an entire geographical region becoming incapable of naturally supporting human life within a century, you should find justifiable reason for alarm. We can't crank up the A/C on the middle east or anywhere else. Something tells me people will not politely consign themselves to becoming unfortunate losers in the roulette wheel of climate change.
11
Forgive me, but at the rate things are going in the Middle East, "intolerable" heat may be the least of its problems, and, by 2100, one long since pre-empted by self-destruction.
8
Mecca becoming too hot for the Hajj is the least of the problem. If the near east and India become too hot for habitation, hundreds of millions of people
will be heading to cooler climes. Western Europe, already crowded, will be over run. Russia, with a vast, resource rich, uncrowded, and fairly cool land area, would be next. Let's see how the Russians like that idea.
will be heading to cooler climes. Western Europe, already crowded, will be over run. Russia, with a vast, resource rich, uncrowded, and fairly cool land area, would be next. Let's see how the Russians like that idea.
54
Oh, I think I have an idea how that will turn out.
They have the greatest amount of natural resources on the planet, too.
They have the greatest amount of natural resources on the planet, too.
Air Conditioners do not create appreciable heat, they move heat by taking advantage of how gas responds to being compressed. This is why heat pumps are far more efficient than burning fossil fuels. If one reversed a windows air conditioner it would move heat from the outside to the inside. Nothing is getting burned.
Years back the Pentagon listed the number one security threat as global climate change.
Years back the Pentagon listed the number one security threat as global climate change.
4
I sorry but you are wrong.
Air-conditioners (and their reverse the heat-pump) take advantage of an energy savings "loophole" in thermodynamics. By only transferring heat one or another direction, the energy required and waste heat are much less. Still, both air-conditioning and heat pumps do create excess heat. As their numbers grow and the days that require their use increase, the total excess released heat energy also grows.
The laws of thermodynamics cannot be violated:
1. You cannot win.
2. You cannot even real even. (This is the crucial one that conflicts with your premise. In more scientific speech, disorder/entropy/ waste heat always increases.)
3. You cannot get out of the game.
Air-conditioners (and their reverse the heat-pump) take advantage of an energy savings "loophole" in thermodynamics. By only transferring heat one or another direction, the energy required and waste heat are much less. Still, both air-conditioning and heat pumps do create excess heat. As their numbers grow and the days that require their use increase, the total excess released heat energy also grows.
The laws of thermodynamics cannot be violated:
1. You cannot win.
2. You cannot even real even. (This is the crucial one that conflicts with your premise. In more scientific speech, disorder/entropy/ waste heat always increases.)
3. You cannot get out of the game.
1
Let's see. Our first heatpump was in 1977. Worked like a champ until the temp dropped below 35. We currently have a geothermal heatpump, works year round and is the most efficient form of heating and cooling going. No escaped heat.
Sorry sport..you're wrong
I believe I said appreciable heat.
Heat is moved from the house to the ground during the summer.
Cold is moved from the house to the ground during the winter.
I could explain exactly how it works but that would take more than a comment section.
Sorry sport..you're wrong
I believe I said appreciable heat.
Heat is moved from the house to the ground during the summer.
Cold is moved from the house to the ground during the winter.
I could explain exactly how it works but that would take more than a comment section.
The fossil fuel magnates will keep denying the significance of CO2 emissions no matter how many people collapse dead in the street. Sadly, they wont care until their kids and loved ones start dying. That's is what it is going to take to get them to even admit CO2 is a problem.
They keep saying that alternatives are too expensive. Well, how much are peoples lives worth? How much is their life worth? Everything has a cost associated with it. What good is cheap energy today if thousands (millions?) will soon die each day from heat exhaustion?
But this tragedy may not happen. You see, before the world burns up, the glaciers will all disappear and the rivers will run dry in the region. It is highly possible that the Middle East will depopulate because there will be no water to drink long before wet bulb 35C becomes common. Oh joy.
They keep saying that alternatives are too expensive. Well, how much are peoples lives worth? How much is their life worth? Everything has a cost associated with it. What good is cheap energy today if thousands (millions?) will soon die each day from heat exhaustion?
But this tragedy may not happen. You see, before the world burns up, the glaciers will all disappear and the rivers will run dry in the region. It is highly possible that the Middle East will depopulate because there will be no water to drink long before wet bulb 35C becomes common. Oh joy.
192
35C? I just finished 19 years of work in the Emirates and Saudi. Thirty-five is actually very mild there. For seven months a year the daytime highs are closer to 45 and commonly 50-52.
6
The fossil fuel magnates figure that their kids will be the last 6 guys left, serviced by robots.
1
I am quite sure the rich feel that given their ever expanding resources, they and their relatives / accomplices are set to survive the worst, and that as billions die off, technology will carry them forward as Nature's wrath decreases with the great die-off. After all, they are even planning orbiting hotels for themselves.
Or maybe they just don't care.
Or maybe they just don't care.
The way thing's are going, I seriously doubt mankind will be around in 2100.
29
There exists a simple way to cool down when the wet bulb temperature exceeds 35 C. You simply use a liquid other than water to evaporate off your skin. As long as the ambient vapor pressure for the compound you use is lower than what is is in thermal equilibrium, this will work. The cooling effect will be large if you use a compound with a high rate of evaporation and a high latent heat. E.g. alcohol will be quite effective, but you have to be careful to not apply it directly on your skin as it can be absorbed by the skin.
Brilliant, Watson, and so convenient as you're dehydrating to death.
5
This is hardly practical for an entire country's population.
I notice that all these projections of weather doom are projected beyond anyone's lifetime.
Who's going to be around in 2100 to says they were wrong?
Junk Science!!!
Who's going to be around in 2100 to says they were wrong?
Junk Science!!!
4
About 10 billion people if they were wrong. A lot less if they are right.
7
This is only 85 years into the future. Quite a few people alive today -- some even reading this story today, perhaps -- will be alive and kicking in the year 2100.
7
What??? Your kids, their kids,your neighbor's kids, their neighbor's kids..
There is nothing "Junk" about it.
There is nothing "Junk" about it.
15
I'm worried about what will be happening on our way to making one of the largest human population centers too hot for habitation--mass migration, shortages of certain crops, shortages of water, and renewed tensions as groups fight over diminishing resources. Is the Holy Land a canary in a coal mine?
How does that effect us here? I'm afraid we're taking climate change too lightly. Even if we don't believe in it, shouldn't we clean up our act just to be on the safe side? Shouldn't we mobilize all of our talents and technology as a species to save our home?
I am disgusted and ashamed we don't seem to care enough to stop squabbling and do something. This is an existential crisis. We are killing our planet. We are killing ourselves.
How does that effect us here? I'm afraid we're taking climate change too lightly. Even if we don't believe in it, shouldn't we clean up our act just to be on the safe side? Shouldn't we mobilize all of our talents and technology as a species to save our home?
I am disgusted and ashamed we don't seem to care enough to stop squabbling and do something. This is an existential crisis. We are killing our planet. We are killing ourselves.
492
Yes, we should mobilize as if this were WWIII. But instead, our Congress is calling up scientists to harass them.
"Congressional skeptic on global warming demands records from U.S. climate scientists"
"The head of a congressional committee on science has issued subpoenas to the Obama administration over a recent scientific study refuting claims that global warming had “paused” or slowed over the last decade.
Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Tex.), chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology and a prominent congressional skeptic on climate change, issued the subpoenas two weeks ago demanding e-mails and records from U.S. scientists who participated in the study, which undercut a popular argument used by critics who reject the scientific consensus that man-made pollution is behind the planet’s recent warming."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/10/23/cong...
They've signed the Koch Climate Pledge, silenced the Pentagon, and threatened to undermine President Obama's initiatives in Paris.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/gop-congress-climate-pact-paris-21...
"Congressional skeptic on global warming demands records from U.S. climate scientists"
"The head of a congressional committee on science has issued subpoenas to the Obama administration over a recent scientific study refuting claims that global warming had “paused” or slowed over the last decade.
Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Tex.), chairman of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology and a prominent congressional skeptic on climate change, issued the subpoenas two weeks ago demanding e-mails and records from U.S. scientists who participated in the study, which undercut a popular argument used by critics who reject the scientific consensus that man-made pollution is behind the planet’s recent warming."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/10/23/cong...
They've signed the Koch Climate Pledge, silenced the Pentagon, and threatened to undermine President Obama's initiatives in Paris.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/gop-congress-climate-pact-paris-21...
8
@kat. I agreed with you until you said:" we are killing our planet". We are not killing our planet, we are killing the human race by making life here impossible for future generations.
As for the Earth, nothing to worry about, she will adapt as she has been doing since the beginning. Her DOD is known. (4,5 billions years from now). We Humans will already be long gone. Certainly not in Heaven like some might think, but extinct.
As for the Earth, nothing to worry about, she will adapt as she has been doing since the beginning. Her DOD is known. (4,5 billions years from now). We Humans will already be long gone. Certainly not in Heaven like some might think, but extinct.
2
The planet will do just fine. It will regenerate after we humans have wiped each other out. (and taken most of the earth's other species with us in the process)
2
I have been living since 32 years ago in Iran which is one of widely affected country of Persian gulf in the realm of climate change. I mean annually we have been experiencing a kind of warm climatic conditions than used to. I think we should be expected to perceive the much more severe weather in winter as much as summer.
18
The most significant metric for climate change that I've managed to come up with is the number of refugees in the world, recently reported at over 60,000,000, higher than the number of refugees in the aftermath of World War II. In 2008, the number, as reported by the UNHCR, was just over 12,000,000. That's an incredible five-fold increase in seven years!
The preponderance of the evidence suggests that, notwithstanding the impact of the disastrous U.S. invasion of Iraq, the Syrian crisis was precipitated by drought, drought that arose within the context of climate change. Those who, ostrich-like, continue to stick their heads in the sands of denial or who, like the gentleman whose comments the NY Times "picked" above, pray at the altar of technology, will be singing a different tune when they join the hordes of refugees wandering the planet looking for a habitable place to live.
The preponderance of the evidence suggests that, notwithstanding the impact of the disastrous U.S. invasion of Iraq, the Syrian crisis was precipitated by drought, drought that arose within the context of climate change. Those who, ostrich-like, continue to stick their heads in the sands of denial or who, like the gentleman whose comments the NY Times "picked" above, pray at the altar of technology, will be singing a different tune when they join the hordes of refugees wandering the planet looking for a habitable place to live.
43
A sign of our times when a insightful post like yours get only 3 like votes. People want to do whatever they like to do regardless of the consequences on others. It's a shame the average human being is such a selfish animal.
1
As a rough measure, the population of Egypt is over 80 million, and over 40% live in metropolitan regions (mainly Cairo), already a not very habitable place unless you're wealthy or a tourist. The divide between the haves and have-nots will only sharpen as humans face a planetary scale loss of habitat. We won't be the first species to succumb.
1
The consequences of intolerable heat from climate change will also apply to food crops, farm animals and disease outbreaks affecting all living things. Scientific research keeps clarifying the consequences of global warming while deniers keep raising their rhetoric. We may be singing the song, "Where Have All the Flowers Gone" with a new meaning.
269
There are very few deniers. The ones you hear from -- those with a platform, like the ones in congress and in right wing media, especially those in politics and in "think tanks" and the "Heritage" Foundation -- are bought and paid for liars. Not deniers, liars. There's a huge difference. You can usually tell, by their bank accounts, or their political contributions, donations, fund raising, grants, subsidies, etc. Usually too the name "Koch" will be back there somewhere too.
Government money drives the anthropogenic global warming hoax. What caused the Ice Age? What caused the end of the Ice Age? It's the SUN. That's why Solar Physicists completely reject anthropoenic climate change. Why are all of the projections for a melting planet so far in the future, defined by when we are all dead? Because green is the new red. Where do you think all of the Communists went after the fall of the Soviet Union and the Berlin Wall?
The ag biotech companies have realized this, and have been working at ensuring that, in the event that things do get much worse than anyone would like, we will still be able to grow things to eat, by creating heat and drought resistant plants and seeds, but the anti-GMO crowd wants to kill that. What amazes me is how people can point to science as evidence of climate change on the one hand, but would like to ignore it when looking at GMOs.
When a population becomes incompatible with its environment, that population will be corrected until it either adapts or dies.
41
Or they will become climate refugees and emigrate to places like Europe and North America!
9
"When a population becomes incompatible with its environment, that population will be corrected until it either adapts or dies."
Or moves. I think we will see climate refugees.
Or will the climate crisis (crop failure, resource conflicts, etc) cause war, so the refugees will be fleeing war?
I'm not sure it matters why people will be on the move, but they will be. The whole world should be concerned, but Europe, with it's relative proximity should be VERY concerned. If Europe thinks the Syrian refugee crisis is big and has the possibility of changing European ways of life, they better start preparing now for something much bigger.
(and to be clear, I think everyone, everywhere should be preparing for climate change and major moves of populations away from hot zones and coasts)
Or moves. I think we will see climate refugees.
Or will the climate crisis (crop failure, resource conflicts, etc) cause war, so the refugees will be fleeing war?
I'm not sure it matters why people will be on the move, but they will be. The whole world should be concerned, but Europe, with it's relative proximity should be VERY concerned. If Europe thinks the Syrian refugee crisis is big and has the possibility of changing European ways of life, they better start preparing now for something much bigger.
(and to be clear, I think everyone, everywhere should be preparing for climate change and major moves of populations away from hot zones and coasts)
1
And Dubai wants to host the World Cup there in a few years? Insanity.
104
Doha, Qatar, not Dubai. Still ridiculous given the climate, not to mention the slavery and worker abuse it is taking to build the facilities...
7
I suspect Dubai will become a ghost town by 2050, as the massive amount of energy required to air condition those 100 story greenhouses become unaffordable. Remember back before air conditioning, when they used to design buildings with opening windows and air shafts?
2
Exactly! And the cesspool of bribery and graft that went into awarding the games to Qatar in the first place!
5
"There are only sacred place and desecrated places."—Wendell Berry.
Not in the religious sense...but what we disrespect, abuse, mistreat and wantonly exploit will come back to haunt us. I think Mother Nature has been very patient with us...but in the end, she will have her way.
Not in the religious sense...but what we disrespect, abuse, mistreat and wantonly exploit will come back to haunt us. I think Mother Nature has been very patient with us...but in the end, she will have her way.
42
That and Russian bombs.
What will it take to convince billions of people around the world that they must stop burning carbon fuels? They must abandon mass commuting by gasoline powered vehicles because it's poisoning the Earth. But what will it take? 42°C average summer days here and in Europe? Years without winter? Mass famine?
Mass commuting from home to work and back is as wasteful and unproductive an activity as someone can possibly find. And it's alien to Nature. Also, very new and unprecedented. It's a post WW-2 sociological development, a cultural artifact, a vestige of the 20th century, an historic aberration. Unprecedented.
Yet most of our political elites and business leaderships pretend it's normal and permanent largely because it isn't in their personal self-interest to oppose it. As much as those in power might acknowledge scientific facts or the reality right in front of their noses they won't act effectively, decisively, to head off multiple looming catastrophes. Their inaction is as shortsighted and inexplicable as that which paralyzed European leaders during WW-1 when The Great Empires committed mass suicide, almost destroying civilization. Their leaders led the way.
A quarter century later they failed again. And now this.
When the biosphere fails to support us in the grand -- and grandly destructive and wasteful -- lifestyle to which we have become accustomed the population crash will be rapid and unstoppable. Only, this time, Civilization won't recover, nor will most species.
Mass commuting from home to work and back is as wasteful and unproductive an activity as someone can possibly find. And it's alien to Nature. Also, very new and unprecedented. It's a post WW-2 sociological development, a cultural artifact, a vestige of the 20th century, an historic aberration. Unprecedented.
Yet most of our political elites and business leaderships pretend it's normal and permanent largely because it isn't in their personal self-interest to oppose it. As much as those in power might acknowledge scientific facts or the reality right in front of their noses they won't act effectively, decisively, to head off multiple looming catastrophes. Their inaction is as shortsighted and inexplicable as that which paralyzed European leaders during WW-1 when The Great Empires committed mass suicide, almost destroying civilization. Their leaders led the way.
A quarter century later they failed again. And now this.
When the biosphere fails to support us in the grand -- and grandly destructive and wasteful -- lifestyle to which we have become accustomed the population crash will be rapid and unstoppable. Only, this time, Civilization won't recover, nor will most species.
21
By now we all know how to boil a frog. The problem is how to convince the frog to abandon the pot while it's still comfortable.
5
Interesting how the karmic boomerang works.
The countries which supply most of the world's petroleum needs thereby garnering trillions of dollars, will be the first to feel the pinch when the earth becomes inhospitable for human habitation.
The countries which supply most of the world's petroleum needs thereby garnering trillions of dollars, will be the first to feel the pinch when the earth becomes inhospitable for human habitation.
66
Slavic countries had better start making plans. Heck, some of these folks might even decide to rush the Russian borders.
4
This explains the sudden rise in migrants form the mid-east to Europe..
7
I disagree, it is the war now. But in the future this will be a cause of continued migration from the Mideast to Europe. Until the Mideast is depopulated.
And places like Siberia will have a very desirable climate to live in.
The migrations have just begun.
And places like Siberia will have a very desirable climate to live in.
The migrations have just begun.
2
This is of course if the West surrenders and allows itself to be swamped and submerged by these so called "climate migrants". If Europe and North America allow themselves to be invaded and conquered they will shortly be transmogrified beyond recognition and not be fit places for anyone to live and become deserts themselves.
8
It seems that as long as we have room to argue we will, which may make this undeniable change a focal point recognized and dealt with by all.
Adverse changes that result from poor or non existent planning on the part of a few and largely brought about as a result of ignorance and/or greed may now be more closely watched and considered before the carte blanche of free enterprise is handed out.
This is of course the only world any of us have and since none of us was asked to be born we all have the same right to exist. We will of course have to wake up to that fact and take steps to assure all of us can exist with a degree of comfort.
Our mental evolution which appears to be preceding at a more rapid pace will prove or disprove this thought and my hope, at least for our children, is the positive outcome will prevail.
Adverse changes that result from poor or non existent planning on the part of a few and largely brought about as a result of ignorance and/or greed may now be more closely watched and considered before the carte blanche of free enterprise is handed out.
This is of course the only world any of us have and since none of us was asked to be born we all have the same right to exist. We will of course have to wake up to that fact and take steps to assure all of us can exist with a degree of comfort.
Our mental evolution which appears to be preceding at a more rapid pace will prove or disprove this thought and my hope, at least for our children, is the positive outcome will prevail.
1
The end is nigh and as the Paris climate conference approaches it will probably come nigher. Sorry, but none of the models have anywhere near the resolution required to predict climate in time increments of less than 100 years. Anyone who claims that the last 10 or 20 years or the next proves or disproves any theory is blowing smoke. Hurricane Sandy, Patricia and lack of hurricane activity in the gulf in the last ten years, despite predictions of greater activity merely point out how little we really know and how primitive these models are. Nevertheless, the end may be nigh.
5
Your assertions fly in the face of the success of Exxon's own climate modeling. See this excellent series on how they foresaw conditions that are being independently - and unwittingly, since Exxon kept their science to themselves after they decided to deceive us all - appearing today: http://insideclimatenews.org/content/Exxon-The-Road-Not-Taken
1
could it become too hot to fight?
7
My mother has a theory that folks who eat higher species of mammals (not fowls) have hotter tempers whereas the vegetarians, egg eating folks have gentler tempers. Imagine the South Asian subcontinent parts of which have soaring temperatures but people are not out to kill each other, at least large populations in India that are vegetarians or too poor to afford meat on a regular basis (Pakistan is a different story, lot of beef and mutton eaten there).
1
Yes, but from whatever the gain in lives saved, you'd have to subtract the number of births which are not going to happen because it would also be too hot for sex.
1
maybe they want to also mention that the northeast and europe will be uninhabitable because of extreme cold.
predicting things a 100 years out has to have an element of catchiness (e.g. no mecca pilgrimage - take that you muslims) or a high sigma around it.
predicting things a 100 years out has to have an element of catchiness (e.g. no mecca pilgrimage - take that you muslims) or a high sigma around it.
4
This is terrible news. Many more parts of the globe (especially near the equator) will presumably follow this pattern in the years following 2100.
Since Mecca falls under this "intolerable heat" area and is about ~1400 km away from the Persian Gulf, presumably so do Baghdad, Medina, Jerusalem, Amman, and many cities in Iran. Will similar heat waves occur in North Africa?
The human migration away from these areas will immense if nothing is done to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
I hope the world will act now, including the US. Problem is we now have 25 states suing the Obama administration for their new carbon emission regulations, which is only a first step.
Since Mecca falls under this "intolerable heat" area and is about ~1400 km away from the Persian Gulf, presumably so do Baghdad, Medina, Jerusalem, Amman, and many cities in Iran. Will similar heat waves occur in North Africa?
The human migration away from these areas will immense if nothing is done to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
I hope the world will act now, including the US. Problem is we now have 25 states suing the Obama administration for their new carbon emission regulations, which is only a first step.
20
Closer to home.
Miami Herald front page, 10.25.15,
"Miami Beach's Battle to Stem Rising Tides",
Miami Beach is spending $500 million to install 80 pumps to pump the ocean back into the ocean, raise roads, sidewalks and seawalls.
But, local notables Third Bush and Marquito Rubio are not scientists.
Miami Herald front page, 10.25.15,
"Miami Beach's Battle to Stem Rising Tides",
Miami Beach is spending $500 million to install 80 pumps to pump the ocean back into the ocean, raise roads, sidewalks and seawalls.
But, local notables Third Bush and Marquito Rubio are not scientists.
191
Miami is doomed, there pumps/seawall won't work because limestone under part of the city is a direct route for water infiltration. Maybe Churchill Canada will be the capital of North America by 2100. Lots of prime real estate around Hudson Bay. But can the poor soil of the Canadian Shield feed the (smaller) population by then?
3
Not like Al Gore, Leo Di Caprio, Bono....
I posted the video link to "Miami Beach's Battle to Stem Rising Tides" on the very bottom of the Pinecrest Floods page:
http://pinecrestfloods.blogspot.com/
Seeing the two layers of sidewalks, Publix grocery minus 5 bottom steps, built to code at the time when constructed ... I'd heard, but seeing it, WOW, with Third Bush and Marquito Rubio still denying --amazing!
Pinecrest officials allowed sumpland filling and elevating supposedly to code, too, OK'd without drainage and inland sea rise overlooked?
The land needs to be reclaimed for an inland pumping station ahead, INLAND!
Still plenty of unseeing eyes out there the "Third Bush and Marquito Rubio" among them.
http://pinecrestfloods.blogspot.com/
Seeing the two layers of sidewalks, Publix grocery minus 5 bottom steps, built to code at the time when constructed ... I'd heard, but seeing it, WOW, with Third Bush and Marquito Rubio still denying --amazing!
Pinecrest officials allowed sumpland filling and elevating supposedly to code, too, OK'd without drainage and inland sea rise overlooked?
The land needs to be reclaimed for an inland pumping station ahead, INLAND!
Still plenty of unseeing eyes out there the "Third Bush and Marquito Rubio" among them.
5
Embrace the change. Oh, and party on.
5
It seems so just that the wrath of Mother Nature will befall the very region that is the home of the greatest concentration of the very elixir that helped create this in the first place. Oh my, when the indoor ski slope in Dubai closes its doors, it is time to take this warming thing seriously.
4
10 years ago we were hearing that we would run out of oil, and US technology and human ingenuity delivered staggering progress in hydrocarbon production. I am 'pretty sure' - the equivalent of the alarmist use of 'may' - that over the next 20 years the US will again take the lead and develop carbon sequestration and other technologies that will have equally staggering benefits countering climate change, whither man made, natural or both. and somehow I am not terribly concerned about an impact on the Hajj in 150 years or so - think back on the fear of global famine 50 years ago, or pesticide caused extinction of ospreys 40 years back, or LA smog alerts as far as the eye can see back in the 60's.
50
It is unfortunate that John equates causes and effects of global warming with osprey extinction and LA smog. Those analogies may assuage his concerns which he limits to its impact on the Hajj, but those who recognize what is at stake will not be comforted by such illogic.
11
Sure. Once humans identify a problem we are resourceful enough to find solutions. So we ban DDT, improve food production and enact CAFE to reduce car emissions. But the key is identifying the problem.
5
We've known how to "frack" since the 1960s, hardly staggering progress. All that happened recently was that Peak Oil occurred for conventional wells, allowing more expensive seismic imaging and fluid pressurization techniques to become more widespread. Now that oil prices have undershot because of excess supply in the usual commodities cycling, fracking is winding down. No-one has been able to demonstrate large-scale carbon sequestration yet. We need a large carbon tax to incentivize that.
5
Has Angela Merkel invited the residents of these nations to move to Germany already (after which they will be redistributed to other European nations)?
4
Some caretakers we are. Our gross stupidity, avarice and greed will be our downfall. The only things left on Earth will be insects. We will kill and eat everything else, pollute our air and water so it is unbreathable and undrinkable, then we will turn on each other and make war, genocide and famine. What humans are left will be killed by some type of pathogen.
7
You call this fair and balanced reporting? Why wasn't Sen. Inhofe (R-OK) asked to comment?
12
"Steven Sherwood, a researcher whose work in 2010 suggested that parts of the world could become uninhabitable within 200 years if fossil-fuel burning continues unabated, said he saw no reason to doubt the results of the new study."
Do enough fossil fuels even exist for fossil-fuel burning to continue unabated for another two hundred years?
Do enough fossil fuels even exist for fossil-fuel burning to continue unabated for another two hundred years?
2
Yes, if we are stupid enough to burn coal. But problems will arise earlier if we don't stop methane leaks. Nonetheless, Dr. Sherwood forgets that exponential growth always ends.
Yes, depending how far down in grade one is willing to go.
We of Planet Earth need a draconian Marshall Plan to convert to solar and ban engines that run on fossil fuel.
The disruption would be difficult but neither as disruptive nor as difficult as trying to survive sous vide.
The disruption would be difficult but neither as disruptive nor as difficult as trying to survive sous vide.
17
Solar, of course, propitiously produces maximum energy output at the exact time air conditioning load is highest. Ice storage is promising too. Maybe there are technological ways out of this mess.
Hate to be a contrarian, but this would be a boon to the Middle East and civilization in general. Thinking of all the fighting and killing that won't occur once people can no longer claim "holy" pieces of ground that are too hot to visit, let alone live near.
41
You have got to be joking--those tribes will just migrate elsewhere (Europe and Asia) and they won't check their 2000 year old sectarian grudges at the door when they do it, either.
1
Apparently this is news to people who weren't reading the papers earlier this year.
In India, 2300 died in a record heat wave, and the country saw its roads melt. Iraq and Iran experienced record heat waves, and accompanying power outages. Pakistan saw 800 deaths. Cairo saw unrest as people demanded air conditioning. These are places used to heat, but not like this.
In the US, heat waves have killed as well, mostly the elderly and infirm who couldn't get to air conditioning.
2015 is on track to being the hottest year on record, surpassing 2014, the previous record holder. How can we possibly take a "wait and see" approach any longer?
In India, 2300 died in a record heat wave, and the country saw its roads melt. Iraq and Iran experienced record heat waves, and accompanying power outages. Pakistan saw 800 deaths. Cairo saw unrest as people demanded air conditioning. These are places used to heat, but not like this.
In the US, heat waves have killed as well, mostly the elderly and infirm who couldn't get to air conditioning.
2015 is on track to being the hottest year on record, surpassing 2014, the previous record holder. How can we possibly take a "wait and see" approach any longer?
231
Ref: India, why would a nation that tolerates its people defecating in the street care about a dependable power grid? India cares little about its electrical and public health infrastructure so, of course, people are going to die in the heat, and from diseases.
Actually, if you go back over the temps in India from 1901 - 1999, you will find that the hottest years were from 1901 - 1967, followed by much cooler temps up until 1980, then hot again until 1992, then cooling through 1999. So it is true that the climate changes in India, quite drastically if you look at 10 - 15 year segments. Has been going on forever.
Well, this is so convenient. Because all their "Current" Global Warming predictions are being proven completely false, just predict calamity a hundred years out when no one will be alive to mock them when it doesn't happen. Then their small group of low information drone supporters can continue dancing around screaming, "The sky is falling, the sky is falling!!!"
You know what? I predict that the aliens will invade in a hundred years.
I predict the Easter Bunny will be on CNN in 50 years.
I predict that in 25 years... Santa's Village will actually be found at the North Pole...
Ha!
Titus Corleone
www.tituscorleone.com
You know what? I predict that the aliens will invade in a hundred years.
I predict the Easter Bunny will be on CNN in 50 years.
I predict that in 25 years... Santa's Village will actually be found at the North Pole...
Ha!
Titus Corleone
www.tituscorleone.com
1
Global warming is all around us.
Good luck denying reality, Titus.
Good luck denying reality, Titus.
12
There is no irony that the Saudis lead in taking a scuttling any meaningful agreement at United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris. Until Big Oil - both business and producing nations - start to change their attitudes 2100 will be here sooner than later.
5
One quick observation and a request:
First, having spent more time than I would like in the Middle East, I can say with confidence that the heat is already intolerable to humans.
Second, please print as many stories about this issue as possible. The Far Right will be tempted to put even more miles on their giant SUVs in order to accelerate the destruction of the Middle East. But taking this step would require them to accept global warming. Attempting to reconcile these issues might cause their brains to lock, making our country a much nicer place to live.
First, having spent more time than I would like in the Middle East, I can say with confidence that the heat is already intolerable to humans.
Second, please print as many stories about this issue as possible. The Far Right will be tempted to put even more miles on their giant SUVs in order to accelerate the destruction of the Middle East. But taking this step would require them to accept global warming. Attempting to reconcile these issues might cause their brains to lock, making our country a much nicer place to live.
212
You fail to mention that the heat has always - for thousands of years - been intolerable to any not living in the middle east all their lives. For those that do live there, and have lived long enough, they have seen decades of cooler and decades of hotter weather. The middle east is mostly desert. On what planet do we expect a desert to not be hot, at least some of the time?
Mary " On what planet do we expect a desert to not be hot, at least some of the time?"
Desert has pretty much zero humidity!! This article is about "dangerously muggy...conditions"!! Did you even read it?
The author fails to mention that the middle east is hot????
The natives of the region have seen cooler and hotter weather???
Do you really believe that your comment expresses -- well -- what could actually be called *thinking *about this subject?!
Desert has pretty much zero humidity!! This article is about "dangerously muggy...conditions"!! Did you even read it?
The author fails to mention that the middle east is hot????
The natives of the region have seen cooler and hotter weather???
Do you really believe that your comment expresses -- well -- what could actually be called *thinking *about this subject?!
If anyone still doubts that the world is experiencing dramatic climate changes, here is the unmistakable proof. What is perhaps most frightening--other than the potential human suffering--is what logically follows from this crisis. If the Middle East becomes uninhabitable, the people there may look well beyond their borders for a place to re-settle. Where will they go? Western Europe? The US and Canada? Suddenly, the world seems like a less-secure place and one can only shudder at the prospect of battles being fought over who gets to live where.
166
"If anyone still doubts that the world is experiencing dramatic climate changes, here is the unmistakable proof." It's not doubt that's the issue Gomez, after all we still make war, smoke cigarettes, and eat what will know will kill us.
So, thanks to global warming certain inhabited portions of the world will become uninhabitable within 80 years?
Don't like the planet as it is? Just lie back, do nothing -- and watch it turn into a different one.
Don't like the planet as it is? Just lie back, do nothing -- and watch it turn into a different one.
6
bob,nice talk but what, exactly, are you doing? do you drive? do you use electricity? Do you own an iphone or ipad? If so, perhaps you should be blaming yourself a little.
2
Yoda, quantitation is important. One can generate small amounts of climate changing emissions and not be part of the problem. One can also choose to drive excessively and use interior climate control and be a huge part of the problem. Back of the envelope calculations put reasonable emissions at the equivalent of burning 100 gallons of gasoline per year. Staying below that is a challenge, but quite doable in the US.
3
Maybe there's hope in that there is something that can actually cool down the incessant internal and external strife dwelling there, something mortal minds and politics can never do. When it's too hot to survive, it means it's too hot to fight.
7
Well...it seems like they should install some thermal solar plants to harness that heat, covert it to electricity, and then use it to cool indoor environments.
9
Still Waiting--Best idea I've heard in awhile. And Arab richies can afford to do that. Thanks.
I guess if you have enough money you can hangout in Qatar or Abu Dhabi in their air conditioned cities. Maybe the wars over there will calm down.
1
The "princes" have nice abodes around Lake Geneva and empty mansions in London (hopefully above the floor line).
While alarming enough as it is, the additional frightening aspect of this finding is that the time line for the deadly heat/humidity combination has been reduced from 200 years to less than 100. This is consistent with the evolution of research on other aspects of climate change (such as oceanic impacts). As more data comes in, it seems that various days of reckoning are looking closer and closer.
Perhaps, just perhaps, those increasingly encroaching disaster deadlines will shake up the climate change deniers. After all, people are more likely to take seriously those threats that affect themselves or their kids in coming decades as opposed to their descendants a century or more down the line. But of course, there is a horrible flip side to this: as catastrophe comes closer, it will be too late to take effective action to avert it.
Perhaps, just perhaps, those increasingly encroaching disaster deadlines will shake up the climate change deniers. After all, people are more likely to take seriously those threats that affect themselves or their kids in coming decades as opposed to their descendants a century or more down the line. But of course, there is a horrible flip side to this: as catastrophe comes closer, it will be too late to take effective action to avert it.
74
I'll be amazed if my two kids have kids at all.
2
My grandson is two. I am very sad about what my children and grandchildren are going to be dealing with in their 60s.
2
Is it necessary to add that electric grids are most likely to break down under the peak air conditioning loads driven by temperature spikes?
86
Expect rolling blackouts as grid managers struggle to manage demand and supply on even hotter days, along with the attendant strain on equipment that causes breakdowns. When the whole east coast can be blacked out because an Ohio utility cheated on its tree trimming we are on shaky ground, and that day wasn't even that hot.
3
That's why I got a stand-by generator. Four years ago. Never lost power since. Best insurance against power outages, spend $8K on a generator. Might come handy, though, if your prediction comes true.
1
Some friendly advice: Make sure your generator is tested and maintained regularly. At work ours was never tested and, you guessed it, when we needed it we had a dead battery.
It's inconceivable that parts of the earth will become uninhabitable, but that's what we are facing if something isn't done and soon. It is simply beyond my comprehension how any educated person could disbelieve all the scientists in the world claiming that global warming does exist and that we and future generations are in grave danger if we don't do something to turn this around. Are we so mentally gullible that our thinking can be twisted and changed, even with the facts staring us straight in the face, by political hacks using political science?
32
This is not a suprise, but the other article in today's news is:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/26/cold-economy-cop21-gl...
When 9 billion people are using air-conditioning, we'll see huge spikes in energy use. The hotter it gets, the more air-conditioning is demanded, and we're talking serious feed-back loops. This is on top of the massive feed-back loop of the release of stored carbon & methane in Arctic ice.
Someone must explain how humanity thrived for millennia without air-conditioning, but the general public in the US believes that no one can live or work without it. The reality is that there is no free lunch. There is a price to be paid for all modern comforts.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/26/cold-economy-cop21-gl...
When 9 billion people are using air-conditioning, we'll see huge spikes in energy use. The hotter it gets, the more air-conditioning is demanded, and we're talking serious feed-back loops. This is on top of the massive feed-back loop of the release of stored carbon & methane in Arctic ice.
Someone must explain how humanity thrived for millennia without air-conditioning, but the general public in the US believes that no one can live or work without it. The reality is that there is no free lunch. There is a price to be paid for all modern comforts.
502
Ironic indeed that the hotter it gets, the more air conditioning needed, leading to the more energy expended in power generation yielding hotter temperatures, yielding ... You get the drift.
3
People thrived without AC for millenia because they weren't "thriving" as we define it. When the hot weather came, they reduced activity, retreated to the shade, and waited it out with stored food and water. You can do that in agrarian societies.
Now imagine what those tactics would do to the new, efficient, on-demand economy. A good long heatwave across the south and Midwest would crash the stock exchange.
Now imagine what those tactics would do to the new, efficient, on-demand economy. A good long heatwave across the south and Midwest would crash the stock exchange.
3
Global warming is a serious existential threat, but please don't imagine the problem to be even worse than it actually is. Sunlight trapped by greenhouse gasses is the cause of the problem; waste heat from our machines is minuscule in comparison and will not become a problem for thousands of years at least. Everyone on Earth can have all the air conditioning and every other electrical convenience that they like, so long as we don't use fossil energy to power it.
4
Europe get ready for more immigrants.
20
I say full speed ahead with the fossil fuel based energy development, and 12 cylinder muscle cars. Solar, eeehh! Wait until the sunlight cannot penetrate to the thick water vapors and other pollutants to generate electricity, and use up the oxygen in the atmosphere we will worry about it then. After the world population is reduced to less than six hundred million heads the Mother Earth can take care of herself and clean its atmosphere grow its greenery back again.
This is akin to a reckless and drunkard inheritor of a great wealth, after the money is gone, the health is ruined, teeth fallen out we can look back and say but we had such... an unbelievable gift, a heaven... once!
This is akin to a reckless and drunkard inheritor of a great wealth, after the money is gone, the health is ruined, teeth fallen out we can look back and say but we had such... an unbelievable gift, a heaven... once!
7
"That threatens anyone without air-conditioning — including the poor, but also those who work outdoors in professions like agriculture and construction."
Agriculture and construction? In the desert?
Agriculture and construction? In the desert?
1
Yes, there is agriculture in the middle east.
http://www.ecomena.org/tag/agriculture-in-the-middle-east/
And construction, Dubai, Saudi Arabia and other nations as well. Mostly they bring in labor from other places, pay them poorly, and treat them badly. Remember Qatar, the World Cup and the laborers who died in the heat? http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/23/qatar-nepal-workers-world-c...
That nation, currently building satellite campuses for American universities, is receiving some pressure because the deaths of Nepalis, Bangladeshis and Indians -- working in the extreme heat, have received some attention.
http://www.ecomena.org/tag/agriculture-in-the-middle-east/
And construction, Dubai, Saudi Arabia and other nations as well. Mostly they bring in labor from other places, pay them poorly, and treat them badly. Remember Qatar, the World Cup and the laborers who died in the heat? http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/23/qatar-nepal-workers-world-c...
That nation, currently building satellite campuses for American universities, is receiving some pressure because the deaths of Nepalis, Bangladeshis and Indians -- working in the extreme heat, have received some attention.
4
& since forecasters can't predict with any certainty what the weather will be next week, I'm filing this one under miscellaneous besides, given the alleged apocalypse is scheduled for 2100, babies born today will be 85 when this happens ... if it happens ... so, those who will cite the accuracy or inaccuracy of this report most likely will be suffering from so many ailments as an octogenarian that the weather outside their window will be the least of their problems.
1
Well it certainly won't matter to you, since you'll be dead (no offense, so will I), but this is really happening. The earth is quite clearly warming up, this year we had the hottest worldwide temperatures on record, beating out the previous record of last year. If you don't believe it, that's fine, but if you have grandchildren, they or their children are going to be feeling these effects, often fatally. If you don't care about that, that's fine too, I always did think humans were too greedy and shortsighted to survive.
12
The quest for certainty is not even quixotic, it's futile.
As for the octogenarians, the outdoors weather will be the least of their worries as lomg as they have air conditioning ...
As for the octogenarians, the outdoors weather will be the least of their worries as lomg as they have air conditioning ...
2
The average is easier to predict than a specific data point at a specific time.
5
I am no scientist or climatologist but even in the 60's I recall discussions of the coming of the second (third?) Ice Age. Does any of the warming of the oceans and Ninos of all sorts have to do with this fact of another Ice Age AS WELL AS the known fact of carbon emissions or is it the thinking we can change world habits and worry about a one or two century future?
2
Least of their worries as log as they have air conditioning ...
I was in Dubai recently, on a layover, and the temperature was 38C (100F). I asked the hotel staff about a neighborhood walk, to uncoil after 14 hours in economy. The hotel staff looked at me in stunned disbelief -- why would anyone walk in Dubai? The only city I know where the "walk-ability index" is zero.
173
Try walking in New Orleans after dark - the police will ask you why you are on the street. Try walking in Los Angeles during the day - you will be alone on the sidewalk in most parts of town. Try walking in Amsterdam by any large hotel - you will be mugged by those who prey on tourists daily. Try walking in our own NYC in certain areas after dark - you will be dodging bullets from the upswing in gang violence. No, Dubai is not alone in a zero ability to walk around safely.
2
But you could have gone skiing there.
2
Uh, Gimmr Shelter was referring to the fact that it was TOO HOT TO WALK, not about criminal activity.
3
This is the first report I've ever read of its kind and it is striking.
This, along with the news reported today in the Times about the developing world's inability to cut aggregate emissions as they aspire for a middle class lifestyle for billions, leads me to believe we need to start taking drastic measure to reduce the human population on this earth.
Even if global per capital energy consumption was somehow curtailed in the face of this rise in living standards, which it obviously won't be as people get richer where they live as they emigrate to the developed world, we still need to reduce aggregate emissions from today's levels. And if per capita emissions are going up globally, there is really no way to do this other than to reduce the number of people on the planet.
This, along with the news reported today in the Times about the developing world's inability to cut aggregate emissions as they aspire for a middle class lifestyle for billions, leads me to believe we need to start taking drastic measure to reduce the human population on this earth.
Even if global per capital energy consumption was somehow curtailed in the face of this rise in living standards, which it obviously won't be as people get richer where they live as they emigrate to the developed world, we still need to reduce aggregate emissions from today's levels. And if per capita emissions are going up globally, there is really no way to do this other than to reduce the number of people on the planet.
3
Well gosh I've been ranting about this for years, about how all the insane religious wars and struggles for power in the Mideast are totally moot because of desertification and growing heat. When the water's gone and it's 130 degrees in the shade, nobody can live there and all this nonsense will be over. No more idiotic claims of what's the holy land and who's picked by what deity to live there.
And since people there would rather focus on killing eachother in God's name than doing anything about the problem, I'd expect it to be as crowded as the middle of the Sahara in a few decades. This is also why I keep going on about the current refugee crisis being minor compared to what's coming, when the flood of people leaving the region are starving.
I don't expect anyone to do anything about it in time, but ya know, that's fine by me. Can't see how the culture that pervades the area is of any use to humanity, and we'll be better off without it.
And since people there would rather focus on killing eachother in God's name than doing anything about the problem, I'd expect it to be as crowded as the middle of the Sahara in a few decades. This is also why I keep going on about the current refugee crisis being minor compared to what's coming, when the flood of people leaving the region are starving.
I don't expect anyone to do anything about it in time, but ya know, that's fine by me. Can't see how the culture that pervades the area is of any use to humanity, and we'll be better off without it.
82
You tell them, Dan. We're going to be in a fight for our lives against a European caliphate, with a dribble of native European resistance fighters, in a brutal last stand, in 50 years, max.
3
As long as the one percenters can shut the gates and turn on their personal electrical system (as actually happens now, during power outages), there will be no change.
4
Did the person who wrote the headline not read the article?
Article says last July temps in the ME were only 0.4-degrees shy of the threshold.
Dr Guy McPherson says the 35-degree wet-bulb will cause mass-extinction much sooner than the end of the century.
Article says last July temps in the ME were only 0.4-degrees shy of the threshold.
Dr Guy McPherson says the 35-degree wet-bulb will cause mass-extinction much sooner than the end of the century.
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Yeah, not so great. You think bloodshed will end once the Persian gulf is depopulated from the heat? No. It will come to your doorstep in mass migration and wars over remaining resources.
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Well Abraham, at that point, the surviving nations, if they're wise, will limit migration by means of aerial bombardment and torpedoes for smuggler ships. Count on it, self-preservation does kick in for everyone at some point.
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I seem to remember this nutty white-haired guy saying something in the debate the other night about climate change being the most important national security issue. What was his name again? The Times doesn't seem to care for him.
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Is there a second or third Ice Age coming as well? Climate change is one thing but aren't we all going to succumb in a few centuries anyway? What's the worry now, right?
Humans and before that their ancestors have lived through every other ice age, why would we succumb to this one?
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It is reasonable to assume that the science used and the findings reported here are as accurate as we can do right now. Interesting that this type of article - and the almost startling conclusions drawn - are so underplayed in the mass media. It is akin to the issue of rising ocean levels, which have been known for years but are only now getting noted in the media.
In both "global warming" results, millions upon millions of people will be displaced and likely mayhem will result around the world. It is not a pretty picture yet one that is entirely predictable.
In both "global warming" results, millions upon millions of people will be displaced and likely mayhem will result around the world. It is not a pretty picture yet one that is entirely predictable.
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Horrible to even think it, but maybe that will be the end of all misery, man has evoked with the wars without end, humans killing each other, displacements and enduring horror every moment. Sad, so very sad. For the people of the Middle East it is catastrophe after catastrophe. Hope there is a miracle!
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The miracle in this case will be that death comes swiftly.
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Not to worry. Al we need to do is keep electing Republicans, and the problem will take care of itself. Since the problem doesn't actually exist anyway, it will just go away. Poof.
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the Tea Party understands...
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Is it not Ironic that the nations who became rich will be dying from the hell like temperatures generated by the pollution caused by their Massive Oil Exports they which they used to become obscenely rich ? Going to Mecca in The Hajj may be akin to committing suicide when the Global Warming causes these catastrophic waves of intense heat and humidity.
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Already, the Hajj is so crowded and crowd control so inadequate that it's hazardous and even fatal to many.
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The fossil fuel capital of the world will be the first uninhabitable global warming spot on the planet, to be followed in short order by every place else.
"Be fruitful and multiply", said the fossilized medieval religious textbooks, and overpopulation was born.
Fossilized minds get what they deserve...the 'free-dumb' to become a fossilized species.
"Drill, baby, drill" ....until your IQ is invisible.
"Be fruitful and multiply", said the fossilized medieval religious textbooks, and overpopulation was born.
Fossilized minds get what they deserve...the 'free-dumb' to become a fossilized species.
"Drill, baby, drill" ....until your IQ is invisible.
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Hopefully we'll be treated to another congressional snowball as evidence to the contrary this year. Otherwise, I might start to get worried.
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I love the disclaimer provided in the use of the word "MAY." The Earth's global average does not change by much or fast. This means when it is too cold somewhere it will also be too hot somewhere.
While I pray for the peoples in the affected regions, it is my opinion we will get a taste in the next 6-8 months of this and more.
While I pray for the peoples in the affected regions, it is my opinion we will get a taste in the next 6-8 months of this and more.
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A little less prayer, Ron, and a lot more solar, wind, thermal, tidal and alternative energy would actually make a positive difference.
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Dear Ron,
No offense, but if you're not a climatologist, I don't know why you doubt that earth's temperature does change by a lot, and sometimes fairly quickly. The dinosaurs did go extinct through such a change, when a meteor strike and volcanoes increased dust in the air, increasing earth's albedo and thus decreasing its heat.
Such a change is on the way, and denial is not going to save anybody.
No offense, but if you're not a climatologist, I don't know why you doubt that earth's temperature does change by a lot, and sometimes fairly quickly. The dinosaurs did go extinct through such a change, when a meteor strike and volcanoes increased dust in the air, increasing earth's albedo and thus decreasing its heat.
Such a change is on the way, and denial is not going to save anybody.
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"The Earth's global average does not change by much or fast. This means when it is too cold somewhere it will also be too hot somewhere."
Really? Actually, climate wise, that's no what really happens. And what makes you think they need your prayers?
Really? Actually, climate wise, that's no what really happens. And what makes you think they need your prayers?
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