This could be a SNL script.
3
How shocking! Spouses cheating on each other. It would have happened in the Garden of Eden if there were more than two people.
A variation of the oldest profession...been going on since the beginning of time..
A variation of the oldest profession...been going on since the beginning of time..
1
Useful hacking. So unusual!
1
I wonder if handgun sales to women will rise.
2
Prediction: Makes good print, sells newspapers, but the real effect, economic or otherwise: zip.
(The only reason this gets an Upshot column is that it is August.)
(The only reason this gets an Upshot column is that it is August.)
1
Is this for real or is it satire? Or just unintentional satire?
1
great and fun analysis!
"An Ashley-Madison stimulus"??
I think that's what got so many men in trouble in the first place, man
[:-{D>
I think that's what got so many men in trouble in the first place, man
[:-{D>
4
I suspect a good number of people really do not care whether their spouse is cheating....better her than me...
2
One line of thinking is missing from this article: Many of the marriages in which there was infidelity on Ashley Madison have ALREADY failed, perhaps years ago. (Trust me on this one :-) I don't think the subscribers whose info is out there now were necessarily current Ashley Madison users, which means any economic effect will be more muted than this article assumes.
1
For economic conclusions this topic is best left to Freakonomists and for possible moral lessons or counter-intuitive conclusions Malcolm "sound bite" Gladwell.
1
Is this really how economists talk?
I am just enjoying the bit about Josh Duggar about having 2 cheater accounts, (one in his grandmother's name), and his newly realized addiction to porn and hypocrisy. That this guy ran a "Family Research Council" for the GOP has to be some sort of Gold Standard you can use in your statistics of probably divorce settlements.
I am just enjoying the bit about Josh Duggar about having 2 cheater accounts, (one in his grandmother's name), and his newly realized addiction to porn and hypocrisy. That this guy ran a "Family Research Council" for the GOP has to be some sort of Gold Standard you can use in your statistics of probably divorce settlements.
3
Divorce is legally simple only if there are no minor children, modest assets and the parties gets along well enough to not fight over the wedding gifts.
I wonder if two spouses actually ever re-met on this site? Sort of like the "Pina Colada" song, except back in the day it was a personal ad in a newspaper.
...and the dunes on the Cape...come with me to escape!
...and the dunes on the Cape...come with me to escape!
It's a fact of life that women are more interested in a man when other women are interested in that same man! His desirability goes up!! Now, the sanctimonious ones might say that's nonsense, but as someone once said, and I paraphrase; The Truth Might Hurt, but it's still The Truth!!!
3
A California divorce lawyer, phone ringing off the hook, declares:
"This is the best thing to happen to this business since the Seventh Commandment."
"This is the best thing to happen to this business since the Seventh Commandment."
It doesn't make sense that "Let’s guess that 10 million accounts are real and from the United States, and nearly all are men. " Are the men planning on dating each other? With all the emphasis on equality, why can't our nation come to grips with women who choose to have affairs?
$5000 exra spending on lawyers? Clearly the authors don't have much experience with divorce. Try adding at least one more zero, then doubling that number and you'll get it right.
1
Publicity about the site could cause some people to resist marriage and be more suspicious of their spouse/ potential spouse.
The feds suppressed prosecution of "johns" for solicitation of prostitution in Colorado. The Denver Players gave their customer database to 9 News of Denver, a reputable 50 year old tv station. The feds prosecuted the owners and managers of the Denver Players for money laundering and income tax evasion. The feds had all the credit card charge records and those would have identified the card owners. They sealed the records and closed the proceedings. The defendant got no jail time, only a small fine. see DoJ v. Brenda Stewart, federal District of Colorado case 1:10-cr-00580-MSK 11/17/10.
Many details are public. A woman actually sent the 10th Circuit an affidavit saying that she worked as a prostitute, Nottingham purchased from her 2004 on, got a $50 discount and a weekly slot. Then his 3rd divorce caused publicity about his visits to strip clubs, the Diamond Cabaret, and heavy drinking there. That led to Nottingham asked her to strip so he could make sure she wasn't wearing a wire because he was trying to evade investigation by the 10th Circuit, who had hired a former FBI agent. There is a public 10th Circuit statement accepting Nottingham's resignation, I have a copy.
The prostitute and a driver for the Denver Players and other witnesses were interviewed by the investigative reporters of 9 News of Denver, led by Deborah Sherman.
The feds suppressed prosecution of "johns" for solicitation of prostitution in Colorado. The Denver Players gave their customer database to 9 News of Denver, a reputable 50 year old tv station. The feds prosecuted the owners and managers of the Denver Players for money laundering and income tax evasion. The feds had all the credit card charge records and those would have identified the card owners. They sealed the records and closed the proceedings. The defendant got no jail time, only a small fine. see DoJ v. Brenda Stewart, federal District of Colorado case 1:10-cr-00580-MSK 11/17/10.
Many details are public. A woman actually sent the 10th Circuit an affidavit saying that she worked as a prostitute, Nottingham purchased from her 2004 on, got a $50 discount and a weekly slot. Then his 3rd divorce caused publicity about his visits to strip clubs, the Diamond Cabaret, and heavy drinking there. That led to Nottingham asked her to strip so he could make sure she wasn't wearing a wire because he was trying to evade investigation by the 10th Circuit, who had hired a former FBI agent. There is a public 10th Circuit statement accepting Nottingham's resignation, I have a copy.
The prostitute and a driver for the Denver Players and other witnesses were interviewed by the investigative reporters of 9 News of Denver, led by Deborah Sherman.
3
the big losers are the owners of ashley madison. they were supposed to list their stock in an IPO (intial public offering) on the london stock exchange. they are greedy people with a poor sense of timing. did they think that stock markets around the world were going to go up forever. they were chintzy by not hiring the best cyber-security experts to protect their systems. my guess the co. will never be IPOed. the owners will not be able to cash out. ashley madison is in a death spriral and will eventually close, with a loss of jobs for those who work there. is an ashley madison recession in the cards? the answer is no. it is too small a fish. is it a tipping point to a recession? it may be with hindsight a claimant to that title, but then there are hundreds if not thousands of possible claimants.
as to the people whose names are exposed their productivity will suffer from the resulting stress but the economy as a whole will suffer very little.
as to the people whose names are exposed their productivity will suffer from the resulting stress but the economy as a whole will suffer very little.
6
Aha! A further analysis of the city of origin has been put out today and indeed, Mr. Wolfers was at least an order of magnitude off. It looks like the number of accounts from U.S. cities is much closer to 1mm than his predicted 10mm. The vast majority of accounts are non-U.S., including interestingly a high incidence in Brazil (go figure).
Of course, this flows all the way down the analysis. There are not as many users as predicted, so there will not be as many additional divorces as predicted, so the predicted additional increased (or decreased) spending won't happen, so the economy won't be affected as predicted. In other words, this entire article is just wrong and falsifiably so.
There is a danger in pretending to throw math around when you are talking out of your hat.
Of course, this flows all the way down the analysis. There are not as many users as predicted, so there will not be as many additional divorces as predicted, so the predicted additional increased (or decreased) spending won't happen, so the economy won't be affected as predicted. In other words, this entire article is just wrong and falsifiably so.
There is a danger in pretending to throw math around when you are talking out of your hat.
5
"There is a danger in pretending to throw math around when you are talking out of your hat."
conclusion is that politicians are a danger to the country since they talk out of their hat nearly all of the time.
conclusion is that politicians are a danger to the country since they talk out of their hat nearly all of the time.
One impact nobody has looked at: the possible effects on major corporations and other institutions if a high profile executive is implicated. In some cases they could be devastating to the company, and that could have a significant economic impact.
4
If so, they will be replaced, Frankly, a lot of boards are looking for a good reason to dump their CEO's.
I think it is good in a way for society to discuss infidelity in marriage. The decision to commit to marriage is much different if one assumes probable cheating than if one assumes infidelity.
What I don't understand is why "johns" aren't usually prosecuted for purchase of prostitution even though it is a misdemeanor. When the Denver Players operation was busted, all the credit card charge information including names became available to the feds. But when they prosecuted Brenda Stewart for money laundering and income tax evasion, the feds sealed all the records. Customer (johns) names were leaked to 9 News of Denver and were said to contain the names of prominent men, politicians, judges etc. The feds let the "madame" off with no jail and only a promise to repay taxes due. See PACER for federal District of Colorado DoJ v. Brenda L. Stewart case 1:10-cr-00580.
What I don't understand is why "johns" aren't usually prosecuted for purchase of prostitution even though it is a misdemeanor. When the Denver Players operation was busted, all the credit card charge information including names became available to the feds. But when they prosecuted Brenda Stewart for money laundering and income tax evasion, the feds sealed all the records. Customer (johns) names were leaked to 9 News of Denver and were said to contain the names of prominent men, politicians, judges etc. The feds let the "madame" off with no jail and only a promise to repay taxes due. See PACER for federal District of Colorado DoJ v. Brenda L. Stewart case 1:10-cr-00580.
1
Sorry for my typo. I meant to say "if one assumes probable cheating than if one assumes fidelity".
they have to be caught in the act or soliciting prostitu
Ha ha, blame the teetering economy due to poor fiscal management on the home wrecker
2
I am just curious why you say that of your estimated 10 million real accounts in the US nearly all are men? I assume that as a "straight" site the men on there are seeking women and without women as members the site would fail.
2
In an online forum a former AM employee (verified) was asked about the service's men:women ratio, if 5000:1 was a reasonable estimate. His answer: that's "probably close... The [men's] delusion was off the charts." So, it's one way to generate revenue, for a while, anyway.
In the technology web sites I follow, I have seen a lot of comments about how users of the site never actually had success finding a partner. There is a lot of speculation that it's mostly a giant scam to suck in gullible and morally compromised men with the promise of affairs only to bleed them dry with fees.
It also seems to mirror most of what I've heard from men about normal dating sites. A large imbalance of males, many fewer females and generally low rates of success.
It doesn't seem to mirror reality that the gender balance would be anywhere near equal, and most statistics seem to show men having affairs at a higher rate than women, possibly much higher.
It also seems to mirror most of what I've heard from men about normal dating sites. A large imbalance of males, many fewer females and generally low rates of success.
It doesn't seem to mirror reality that the gender balance would be anywhere near equal, and most statistics seem to show men having affairs at a higher rate than women, possibly much higher.
Everyday I am grateful my life of crime was before the Internet.
13
What is the economic cost -- or benefit -- that derives from the self-delusion provided by intellectual laziness, the refusal to believe what is inconvenient to one's own predilections?
People who were on the Ashley Madison list are no different from those on Facebook, those who shop at Target, those who bank at Chase, or those who use Google. In each case, people believe that high probability events, hacking in this case, will not occur to them. The same people who believe and forward an e-mail saying Mars will appear the same size as the moon this August, are the same people who believe the internet is secure, that tech corporations are looking out for them, that the good guys are smarter than the bad guys, and that they are immune to the downside of aggregation and publication of their personal activities and thoughts.
This could be an economic minus if these people are in a position to create a financial, tech, or stock bubble. On the other hand, this could be an economic plus if these people continue to willy-nilly buy snake oil and choose American hokum instead of that which comes from abroad.
People who were on the Ashley Madison list are no different from those on Facebook, those who shop at Target, those who bank at Chase, or those who use Google. In each case, people believe that high probability events, hacking in this case, will not occur to them. The same people who believe and forward an e-mail saying Mars will appear the same size as the moon this August, are the same people who believe the internet is secure, that tech corporations are looking out for them, that the good guys are smarter than the bad guys, and that they are immune to the downside of aggregation and publication of their personal activities and thoughts.
This could be an economic minus if these people are in a position to create a financial, tech, or stock bubble. On the other hand, this could be an economic plus if these people continue to willy-nilly buy snake oil and choose American hokum instead of that which comes from abroad.
4
It could be that the men who signed up on Ashley Madison have early stage dementia that is causing reckless behavior. That is my theory regarding former federal judge Edward Nottingham. He resigned in 2008 and I can't find any record showing that he actually worked afterwards.
Nottingham was supposedly conservative when he was younger. His first wife defended him in the press. But when he was in his late 50s, he did things that were reckless including: calling prostitutes on court issued cell phone, putting a paid prostitution site on his work computer, telling prostitutes who he was paying that he was a federal judge, having prostitutes delivered to his son's condo and then kissing them on the sidewalk outside, showing his wife a prostitution website in his office in the federal court room, getting super drunk at a strip club, using his AMEX at a strip club, parking in a handicapped spot, threatening a woman in a wheel chair who confronted him for parking in a handicapped spot, and going to often to a strip club that the staff knew him.
It sounded like he was addicted to the illegal sex. One prostitute told the 10th Circuit and 9 News of Denver he got a quantity discount. Yet he was calling other prostitutes in the same time period. It sounds like he couldn't afford the prostitutes and let other people put their credit cards up for his charges at the Denver Players and the "Baba Bing". What did he expect to happen?
Nottingham was supposedly conservative when he was younger. His first wife defended him in the press. But when he was in his late 50s, he did things that were reckless including: calling prostitutes on court issued cell phone, putting a paid prostitution site on his work computer, telling prostitutes who he was paying that he was a federal judge, having prostitutes delivered to his son's condo and then kissing them on the sidewalk outside, showing his wife a prostitution website in his office in the federal court room, getting super drunk at a strip club, using his AMEX at a strip club, parking in a handicapped spot, threatening a woman in a wheel chair who confronted him for parking in a handicapped spot, and going to often to a strip club that the staff knew him.
It sounded like he was addicted to the illegal sex. One prostitute told the 10th Circuit and 9 News of Denver he got a quantity discount. Yet he was calling other prostitutes in the same time period. It sounds like he couldn't afford the prostitutes and let other people put their credit cards up for his charges at the Denver Players and the "Baba Bing". What did he expect to happen?
2
The Times (and The Upshot) must remember that not all clicks are created equal. Yes, I clicked. But, I am deeply annoyed at the time I wasted. In the future, I will be much more careful before committing another 10 minutes in another sexy sounding Upshot column.
I studied economics in college and have a very basic understanding of the topic; I would have assumed that a spike in divorces rates would change consumption patterns but would have little net effect on overall consumption. But, the headline, "An Ashley Madison Recession?" made me wonder, "Was there a piece of the puzzle I was missing?" Perhaps there are questions I haven't asked.
Well, ten minutes later I was very grumpy. Indeed, Josh Barro and Justin Wolfers said exactly what anyone, with a very basic understanding of economics might have expected, yet they took a few thousand words to say it. The amount folks are consuming hasn't changed but they are consuming has (divorce attorneys over second homes). Shock!
Anyway, if "The Upshot" may have convinced me to click with that fun title but future articles are this obvious, I will be done clicking very soon.
I studied economics in college and have a very basic understanding of the topic; I would have assumed that a spike in divorces rates would change consumption patterns but would have little net effect on overall consumption. But, the headline, "An Ashley Madison Recession?" made me wonder, "Was there a piece of the puzzle I was missing?" Perhaps there are questions I haven't asked.
Well, ten minutes later I was very grumpy. Indeed, Josh Barro and Justin Wolfers said exactly what anyone, with a very basic understanding of economics might have expected, yet they took a few thousand words to say it. The amount folks are consuming hasn't changed but they are consuming has (divorce attorneys over second homes). Shock!
Anyway, if "The Upshot" may have convinced me to click with that fun title but future articles are this obvious, I will be done clicking very soon.
5
I think its economic effect will be even much less than both predict. The complete data dump of the files are difficult to find. Impact Team released versions with viruses in them. There are sites that have partial versions of the data, like pastebin. This means getting found out by one's spouse will be far less than the 2.5 million predicted. In addition, I cross referenced some of the names at companies and governments. Most no longer work there, meaning the data, if they were a customer, is antiquated.
The real story is the hackers and what becomes of them. For those caught being listed, I am finding on the web that they have more anger at the hackers than at Ashley Madison. Look at this data map of Ashley Madison customers that work in the US government: http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1439960967152.jpg There is little to no upside for the hackers to do this. You would not want individuals in this group angry at you. They have the influence, power and capability to kick down your door in the middle of the night, anywhere you are in the world. What becomes of the hackers over the next 30-60 days could be the real story.
The real story is the hackers and what becomes of them. For those caught being listed, I am finding on the web that they have more anger at the hackers than at Ashley Madison. Look at this data map of Ashley Madison customers that work in the US government: http://i.4cdn.org/pol/1439960967152.jpg There is little to no upside for the hackers to do this. You would not want individuals in this group angry at you. They have the influence, power and capability to kick down your door in the middle of the night, anywhere you are in the world. What becomes of the hackers over the next 30-60 days could be the real story.
4
Marc,
Probably one of the better things written about this online. You should be in the media. Sadly, the journalists are basically supportive of the hackers--the more it bleeds, the more it leads. (thank you for bringing Business Insider level journalism to the Times Josh Barro)
The news media has no interest in going after the hackers or following the story of their capture. In an alternate and better universe, the media would be hot on the trail and asking questions of law enforcement as to their efforts toward catching these (the) malicious character(s) responsible---but instead it's a mix of feeding schadenfreude and, even worse, offering a "how to" for people to search the rudimentary info out there. But as you say, a lot of other people might have interest after it's quieted down in the media.
Probably one of the better things written about this online. You should be in the media. Sadly, the journalists are basically supportive of the hackers--the more it bleeds, the more it leads. (thank you for bringing Business Insider level journalism to the Times Josh Barro)
The news media has no interest in going after the hackers or following the story of their capture. In an alternate and better universe, the media would be hot on the trail and asking questions of law enforcement as to their efforts toward catching these (the) malicious character(s) responsible---but instead it's a mix of feeding schadenfreude and, even worse, offering a "how to" for people to search the rudimentary info out there. But as you say, a lot of other people might have interest after it's quieted down in the media.
The article doesn't explore one aspect of the divorces that will be filed. While those that pay the lawyers may have less income to spend on other things, that money they spend will still be respent by the lawyers, their staffs and contractors. It will still go into the economy, just via a different agent.
6
What I want to know is, where are all these unfaithful wives?
11
People were having affairs and getting caught the day before the hack, the week before, the year before, the century before. After the hack, same old same old. Why should this have any effect on the economy? It's the status quo, right?
11
The spending will occur, less on lawyers, more on IT security. What an easy sell, don't become the next Ashley Madison, buy our super secure software and services and keep upgrading them forever. Just like my virus software at home.
5
which software do you recommend.
" is likely to cause trouble in lots of marriages. "
This assumes of course, that men and women across the country and around the world "figure" that their spouses are cheating and now they just need proof. Could be that many spouses "are clueless" and won't check any public outcropping of names and email addresses, or worse, are not even aware of this HACK. They have certainly seen their credit card statements already and may or may not be aware of something "fishy".
Then again. some folks may have just such a CC that they ONLY use for clandestine affairs and the folks back home won't ever have a clue. I'm not certain how this might all play out, but it will be interesting to read any relevant stats in a year or so assuming one can actually correlate the rates.
This assumes of course, that men and women across the country and around the world "figure" that their spouses are cheating and now they just need proof. Could be that many spouses "are clueless" and won't check any public outcropping of names and email addresses, or worse, are not even aware of this HACK. They have certainly seen their credit card statements already and may or may not be aware of something "fishy".
Then again. some folks may have just such a CC that they ONLY use for clandestine affairs and the folks back home won't ever have a clue. I'm not certain how this might all play out, but it will be interesting to read any relevant stats in a year or so assuming one can actually correlate the rates.
3
So 30million people did not realize that this was the ultimate conclusion? That everyone would learn about their desperate searching for sex?
Hysterical.
Hysterical.
6
I joined the site some years ago but actually never met anyone and lost interest in the site. I assume my details were also disclosed as part of this hack, but I really don't care. My credit card is long expired and I did not use my real name for the account itself. What I find repulsive is how the media and many people commenting see this as an opportunity to screw men and women who joined to 'cheat'. People do things that they want to do. If anything, these comments illustrate just what a bad deal in economic terms marriage is. Anyone who gets married without a pre-nup is a fool. For me, been there, done that, got hit with a divorce and now happily single with a great social and sex life. No issues and I can join any site I choose to without fear of my being held to ransom.
16
Given that many married couples are in financially way over their heads, and that during the typical divorce a typical couple loses over half their combined assets, this can only be used for the economy. And since my name isn't registered anywhere as a man looking to cheat on his wife (because I'm not *looking* to cheat on my wife), the Ashley Madison Stimulus probably can't hurt me.
3
Buy stock in companies that manufacture housewares. All those studio apartments have to be furnished.
It's fat city for marriage counselors, divorce lawyers, apartment renters and U-Haul franchises. And this site can't be what it purports to be. It's impossible to know into what categories of people the 'joiners' actually fit. And I seriously doubt they are all actually married-looking-to-cheat types. Like anything you 'join' on the web you really never know what you're gonna' get fer shur til you get it.
2
This analysis is incomplete. People who are subject to alimony and child support orders work fewer hours because they can spend a smaller percentage of their income (they pay the same taxes as other workers in the U.S., but also pay their plaintiffs). This shrinks the economy. Couples who are divorced in "winner-take-all states" (such as New York or Massachusetts) will often spend 100 percent of family assets on legal fees (trying to be the winner who gets the house, the kids, and the profitable child support payments, rather than the loser, who writes the checks). This means there won't be money to invest in children, e.g., for college. Finally there is the fact that research psychologists have found that children are worse off after divorce even when their parents didn't like each other (exception: if the parents were actually physically violent toward each other). A damaged child will be a less productive adult, therefore shrinking the economy. See http://www.realworlddivorce.com/ChildrenMothersFathers for some research citations.
6
Interesting take on the (potential) fall out from the leaks. I did enjoy the different monetary costs associated with divorce being laid out, but any attempt to take that data and extrapolate from the leak to the extent this article did can not possibley give an answer within one order of magnitude. Keep the good info and thought provoking article, clean up a bit on how the statistics are presented.
3
Who knew married men may want to have affairs! For some men, it seems, the entire excitement of marriage is the forbidden affair.
6
And many married women, but they are not stupid enough to use their real names and email addresses.
Unless people actually believe that women do not cheat?
Unless people actually believe that women do not cheat?
they're definitely not all men, or no men would sign up in the first place
4
that might depend on how much "closet space" there is in DC and elsewhere.
The hackers posted that the vast majority of accounts are men and the woman's accounts appeared to be fake.
6
One thing I think will be interesting is to see how many don't get divorced and work through it. Being caught cheating does not necessarily mean divorce in the end. I grew up with some families where one of the parents cheated and they stayed together-today they are old together and the affair episode was just another challenge that they overcame. I'm not defending cheating, adultery..just I think the view that being caught automatically leads to divorce is rather shallow.
It'll be interesting say in 10-12 years after the water clears, if those who do divorce if there names stay out there on the web easily accessible as warnings to potential new partners. If I recall, wasn't there a site where women can rate/review men, Lulu I think it was called? That'll be an interesting mix right there.
It'll be interesting say in 10-12 years after the water clears, if those who do divorce if there names stay out there on the web easily accessible as warnings to potential new partners. If I recall, wasn't there a site where women can rate/review men, Lulu I think it was called? That'll be an interesting mix right there.
8
Something I thought was suspicious about Ashley Madison is that, after charging to join, they charged an extra $250 to guarantee finding a date. I thought that's what dating sites did, find dates. So why the extra $250? And wouldn't the spouse notice these credit card payments on the statements?
No, I didn't learn about the $250 extra from experience. There's just a lot out there about Ashley Madison right now. It sounds like the real economic winner was Ashley Madison. They gave out lists of fake potential dates and charged extra to meet real people.
No, I didn't learn about the $250 extra from experience. There's just a lot out there about Ashley Madison right now. It sounds like the real economic winner was Ashley Madison. They gave out lists of fake potential dates and charged extra to meet real people.
11
Although this was a website to people were were married, do we really know what percentage were married? Seems like it might be an avenue for someone single to have a physical relationship with someone with less risk of emotional attachment than a dating site. It wouldn't surprise me if a large percentage of the customers were actually single.
13
Entertaining exercise in the logic of economics.
2
Wait, what about the boon to the wedding industrial machine? After recovering from their respective divorces/disappointments, there could be a slew of second (or whatever) marriages!
2
As far as the 'marriage earnings premium' goes, I think that these men are going to have trouble with their income (except, of course, for the bankers, etc. who are all cheaters) b/c this kind of public information could definitely have a negative impact on someone's job situation. I don't want to hire someone who's a liar and a cheater in his marriage b/c what does that say about his character?
13
I'm usually dead-set against hackers, but in this case the "victims" could hardly be more deserving of exposure. I hope ALL their spouses learn the truth.
13
And you became the arbiter of moral probity exactly when? I trust that you have led a blameless life and would not mind your personal frailties being made public. This hack was an egregious violation of privacy. Full stop. Puritanical schadenfreude is not exactly a noble position to hold.
1
Funny article. Ya, Ashley Madison will not even put a ripple in the economy. Most woman on this site were invented. Not too many of us want to get involved with a married man. Especially one who's stupid enough to advertise himself on a website inviting trouble. They can run but they can't hide.
30
i once asked a single woman why she would go with a married man. her answer was that because of their status they are on their best behavior. therefore my conclusion is a lot of the women responding are single who have based upon the numbers a very nice and large selection.
11
Seems hard to believe that a significant number of these people are still married. One would guess spouses that are looking to be unfaithful are probably far more likely to divorce than the average, so most of that 2.5 million marriages are likely divorced already and the few thousand that aren't probably won't make a significant difference to the normal churn of human economic activity either way.
4
Boy, you'd think that - long as this piece was - people who comment on it might actually have read it.
It appears not - and I know that MY assumption is dubious, even without examining the responses.
1) The authors definitely go beyond the numbers and point out that the real "cost" of the activity and the subsequent discovery is "hard to quantify" in $ but could be terribly "costly" to people like children, about whom most of us profess to care.
2) Maybe, people haven't encountered "The Upshot" previously, because this strikes me as a bit of a wild card even acknowledging that they've tackled a wide variety of subjects. That "blog" IS about "drilling down into numbers" and trying to make more sense of them than most of us would on our own.
3) The authors are ever so clear about the squooshiness of many of their guesses, but they opted to look at "worst case" ... in terms of the numbers.
I, too, wonder, about the 10-to-1 or higher male-to-female ratio. And the authors SHOULD have grappled with that. As a guess, just as many/most (darn near ALL) of the folks involved used phony, hard-to-trace emails, many of the women were the "female" version of Uber drivers - i.e., they are or would like to be pros or semi-pros.
That's my best guess, of course, and I'm sad about it, too. But nobody bats an eye at the fact that most of the exploited nail salon workers are female (maybe, there's a TG individual or 2, but that's just the way it is. So, too, with hookers. Easy to research!
It appears not - and I know that MY assumption is dubious, even without examining the responses.
1) The authors definitely go beyond the numbers and point out that the real "cost" of the activity and the subsequent discovery is "hard to quantify" in $ but could be terribly "costly" to people like children, about whom most of us profess to care.
2) Maybe, people haven't encountered "The Upshot" previously, because this strikes me as a bit of a wild card even acknowledging that they've tackled a wide variety of subjects. That "blog" IS about "drilling down into numbers" and trying to make more sense of them than most of us would on our own.
3) The authors are ever so clear about the squooshiness of many of their guesses, but they opted to look at "worst case" ... in terms of the numbers.
I, too, wonder, about the 10-to-1 or higher male-to-female ratio. And the authors SHOULD have grappled with that. As a guess, just as many/most (darn near ALL) of the folks involved used phony, hard-to-trace emails, many of the women were the "female" version of Uber drivers - i.e., they are or would like to be pros or semi-pros.
That's my best guess, of course, and I'm sad about it, too. But nobody bats an eye at the fact that most of the exploited nail salon workers are female (maybe, there's a TG individual or 2, but that's just the way it is. So, too, with hookers. Easy to research!
6
The fact is that there are so many variables, "what-ifs" and "buts" that almost any analysis of the numbers is absurd, beginning with the notion that having an Ashley Madison account and actually having made use of their services are two very different things. My bet is that like all websites, 90% of the accounts are duplicates or inactive and that 90% of the active accounts do nothing more than browse the site.
And of people who use the service, their marriages are probably already bad anyway, so whether they use the site or not, it's likely that they would eventually get divorced, since 50% of U.S. marriages fail anyway.
And since we don't know in any given case, whether a divorce would lead to more spending by the party having to set up a new home or less spending due to the cost of the divorce, we really can't analyze anything.
Furthermore, most analysis of "productivity", while interesting as an academic exercise have little affect in the real world. We constantly read things like "if just 20% of U.S. citizens spend 10 minutes a day on Facebook doing trivia and we count the value of their time at just $15 an hour, that's $56 billion a year in lost productivity". It's no such thing any more than thinking about something for 10 minutes before bedtime is lost productivity.
As far as I'm concerned, this article is another embarrassment for the Times. There's been many lately.
And of people who use the service, their marriages are probably already bad anyway, so whether they use the site or not, it's likely that they would eventually get divorced, since 50% of U.S. marriages fail anyway.
And since we don't know in any given case, whether a divorce would lead to more spending by the party having to set up a new home or less spending due to the cost of the divorce, we really can't analyze anything.
Furthermore, most analysis of "productivity", while interesting as an academic exercise have little affect in the real world. We constantly read things like "if just 20% of U.S. citizens spend 10 minutes a day on Facebook doing trivia and we count the value of their time at just $15 an hour, that's $56 billion a year in lost productivity". It's no such thing any more than thinking about something for 10 minutes before bedtime is lost productivity.
As far as I'm concerned, this article is another embarrassment for the Times. There's been many lately.
3
The Times, they are a-changin'!
Here's my take. Most of talk about increasing divorces as a result of this hack is missing one important point. There is a lot of commentary on the web about Ashley Madison being a 'fraudulent' website, in that many if not most of the female profiles are fake. A common belief is that Ashley Madison uses fake female profiles simply to entice desperate old men to pay real money to become members. If this is indeed the case, then it really is mostly a website for old men to "fantasize" about having affairs with young, beautiful women. In fact, the analysis contained in this article 'assumes' that most members are male and, therefore, by necessity very few must be female. If most members are indeed male, and assuming they are not all there seeking homosexual relationships, then there must not be whole lot of actual cheating going on there. Since when has widespread fantasizing led to actual widespread divorces? I bet most men fantasize at one time or another about cheating on their wives. The real question is how many actually pull the trigger to cheat. Accordingly, if there are wives out there who divorce their husbands simply for being members of a sex-fantasy website without proof that they actually cheated, I would venture to say those wives are merely looking for an excuse to do something they've probably been fantasizing doing for a long time -- divorcing their husbands and finding new lovers. Do you see the irony? This is much ado about nothing.
26
I bet most women fantasize at one time or another about cheating on their husbands, but most men are simply too narcissistic to entertain that notion.
I had to read this again.... The author strives to be within an order of magnitude from the true amount. This gives a margin of error of 10x up and 0.10x down.
He then guesses about 200,00 additional divorces, meaning that by his guidelines he would still be "right" if additional divorces were anywhere between 20,000 and 2,000,000 (or an increase of anywhere between 2% and 200%).
This is garbage. Someone needs to remind Professor Wolfers that there is a difference between economics and freakonomics.
He then guesses about 200,00 additional divorces, meaning that by his guidelines he would still be "right" if additional divorces were anywhere between 20,000 and 2,000,000 (or an increase of anywhere between 2% and 200%).
This is garbage. Someone needs to remind Professor Wolfers that there is a difference between economics and freakonomics.
11
I am single, male. Until the latest news, I would have thought Ashley Madison was just the latest over-priced ladies fashion site.
I doubt many women would be on this site; otherwise, bars would not have to offer free drinks ladies night to offset the number of men.
And no, I don't go to singles or married bars, even if such a thing exist, either. Well back to my nerdy things. but safe things, if somewhat boring. :-)
I doubt many women would be on this site; otherwise, bars would not have to offer free drinks ladies night to offset the number of men.
And no, I don't go to singles or married bars, even if such a thing exist, either. Well back to my nerdy things. but safe things, if somewhat boring. :-)
2
Maybe it will help winnow down the list of Republican presidential candidates.
81
One can only hope!
It already did with the democrats...that is one of the reasons Hillary has few competitors...men(and women) will always be tempted to cheat....much difficult to do it now without being caught with the modern digital media age..
2
I would divorce these wonks.
18
Ever wonder why, for some reason, a media personality is never caught? Kinda makes you wonder what these writers are protecting.
3
Where were the women during this conversation?
3
"nearly all were men"? How did this work, unless they were after other men, which the name of site doesn't seem to indicate?
10
@Chris Gilbert - It could work out mathematically if each female user slept with 19 male users (or any linear extrapolation thereof).
1
Any one who opened an account on that website is guilty of thought. Any one who plan to have an extra-marital affairs must be prepared that the spouse will know about it sooner or later. A divorce is good if they do not have any young children, because in such affairs, once you are a cheat you are always a cheat, except you will be extra careful next time.
3
1) Under no circumstance should a paralegal be allowed to handle a divorce. None. Any "argument" that posits that notion is absurd.
2) Any divorces resulting from this hack will be at best a negligible blip on the national economy. Your numbers and assumptions are absurd.
3) Most divorces involve pro se litigants (those representing themselves), as much as 85% in most states. So, divorce lawyers will be unaffected by this hack.
4) If you're assuming that 10 million accounts are from America (absurd) and that nearly all are men, what are you saying? That the men were seeking other men? Or that the men never actually found a woman to cheat with? Your analysis is extremely flawed.
2) Any divorces resulting from this hack will be at best a negligible blip on the national economy. Your numbers and assumptions are absurd.
3) Most divorces involve pro se litigants (those representing themselves), as much as 85% in most states. So, divorce lawyers will be unaffected by this hack.
4) If you're assuming that 10 million accounts are from America (absurd) and that nearly all are men, what are you saying? That the men were seeking other men? Or that the men never actually found a woman to cheat with? Your analysis is extremely flawed.
13
85% of divorces are handled by the parties themselves. You don't seem to have a problem with that, while allowing paralegals (with actual training and experience, unlike the parties themselves) to handle divorces is *absurd.* Let me guess, you're an attorney!
3
I never said I didn't have a problem with it. Where did I state that? I only stated the fact that in most divorce cases, the parties are pro se litigants.
A couple considering divorce should have an attorney. Too many people in this country are unrepresented because they either 1) can't afford it (or think they can't) or 2) believe they can handle it themselves. There are far too many decisions that are legally binding to just wing it. So no, paralegals should not be handling matters that involve a person binding themselves to a legal outcome.
A couple considering divorce should have an attorney. Too many people in this country are unrepresented because they either 1) can't afford it (or think they can't) or 2) believe they can handle it themselves. There are far too many decisions that are legally binding to just wing it. So no, paralegals should not be handling matters that involve a person binding themselves to a legal outcome.
2
Oh come on. There are cases in which a couple, without children, just want to amicably divorce. They have no designs on the others' property. An attorney is just there to stir up the muck and create billable hours. Unless there is something you absolutely want out of the other party, or you need to protect yourself, why have an attorney?
This is a very weak and presumptive analysis. The author made way so many assumptions that make the article very flawed. It also seems that the authors support that the affairs must remain confidential in order to prevent an economic crisis?? absurd!!
12
For a truly beneficial societal and economic impact, these hackers should have revealed the emails of the overpaid, incompetent clowns and fraudsters running cyber security, consulting and investment firms, Congressional members and their staff, bloated and politicized federal agencies, and so many more. Perhaps next time.
7
I would be surprised if there are any significant number of divorces resulting from this "scandal." A substantial number of the users were probably treating it as a form of entertainment or fantasy, much like the readers of this article, or (for that matter) its authors. Those who were using it more intensively almost certainly had other issues in their marriages that would have caught up with them eventually, anyway. It's a little bit like the college fire drills where you would find a professor sleeping in one a student's room. For two or three days it was amusing, then it disappared.
9
I was on this site and I am also an IT guy.
This was years ago and I can hardly remember what I did or didn't do, but my "secret" email address does appear in the data, according to the web sites that allow you to check.
So I downloaded the data and here's the scoop.
There are 1184276 distinct name/US zip combinations in the credit card transactions and that's the only data as far as I can tell that is a real "smoking gun".
I am not on the list, thankfully, but I feel for any person who is. We all make mistakes and this is a messed up way to address those mistakes.
Some stats: In my zip code there are 77 people who paid for subscriptions. 6 are women and the rest are men.
This was years ago and I can hardly remember what I did or didn't do, but my "secret" email address does appear in the data, according to the web sites that allow you to check.
So I downloaded the data and here's the scoop.
There are 1184276 distinct name/US zip combinations in the credit card transactions and that's the only data as far as I can tell that is a real "smoking gun".
I am not on the list, thankfully, but I feel for any person who is. We all make mistakes and this is a messed up way to address those mistakes.
Some stats: In my zip code there are 77 people who paid for subscriptions. 6 are women and the rest are men.
7
Talk about justifying what you did. Can we here from your spouse on your admission?
More to the fact, what do you think when you look in the mirror or at your children?
More to the fact, what do you think when you look in the mirror or at your children?
2
I don't justify what I did. Not here or anywhere else.
2
That's ridiculous, trying to cheat isn't the same as cheating. Also those guys weren't too bright. Most of the female profiles are fake. AM paid people to create them.
3
Don't know where you got your figure about the cost of a divorce, but a very simple, non-contentious divorce, not involving children and major assets division (including a house) costs slightly more than 5k.
A divorce involving children and assets division costs MUCH MORE and it can be a real strain on an average family budget, without including future costs due to alimony and children support. The purchasing power of a newly divorced person can be much reduced for several years.
A divorce involving children and assets division costs MUCH MORE and it can be a real strain on an average family budget, without including future costs due to alimony and children support. The purchasing power of a newly divorced person can be much reduced for several years.
4
Which divorce law office will be the first one to do mass email campaign to all those addresses and how long before they do? My bet is 24 hours :)
10
I suppose you thought that was a clever response, and it does generate a chuckle. But in fact, no law office will be doing a mass emailing campaign to all of the addresses. To make a direct, electronic solicitation to someone you know needs legal services is a violation of the ethics rules and any law firm who solicited in that manner would be subject to sanctions and discipline.
2
Indeed. I own an ISP so I know the rules, but I will be willing to make a small bet that there will be a law office out there (and soon) that will either skirt the rules, or ignore them completely.
I cannot imagine 100% of them will ignore this million+ list of prime potential clients, can you?
I cannot imagine 100% of them will ignore this million+ list of prime potential clients, can you?
1
Anything that revs up the legal system, creates headaches, generates forms, and breaks up marriages is another boon to our overpopulated, polluted, underparented, screentime, casino/hedge fund bubble economy. Way to go, adulterers, hackers, and sleazeball entrepreneurs! Go team!
8
Proof positive that economics and (attempted) humor don't mix. They don't call it " the dismal science" for nothing.
28
Divorce lawyers will buy new cars. Divorcing couples will spend less in other parts of the economy as they adjust, then perhaps more as their one household becomes two and a partner who was either not earning or working part time starts working full time.
This will blow over. I bet we won't see a blip economically. But if there really are more would-be cheaters than expected, there could be social fallout. (That 15% of married men would at least be curious enough to register on the site does not seem high to me at all. Some probably intended nothing more than engaging in a personal fantasy of cheating. Not that their wives will appreciate this.)
This will blow over. I bet we won't see a blip economically. But if there really are more would-be cheaters than expected, there could be social fallout. (That 15% of married men would at least be curious enough to register on the site does not seem high to me at all. Some probably intended nothing more than engaging in a personal fantasy of cheating. Not that their wives will appreciate this.)
3
Sorry, but I'm finding all of this quite entertaining. But, then again, I don't spend any of my spare time searching soft or hard porn websites for action. It is what it is and might just be best letting the chips fall where they may. Sigh.
8
Nice re-tread of an article from 2009, guys. http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/07/24/adultery-between-married-partners...
19
Sounds like an old-fashioned organized crime extortion racket --
Recession or stimulus? That's easy. After all, the latter is what Ashley Madison is all about.
27
Makes perfect sense. An association of divorce lawyers is behind this hack.
....please don't sue me. Its just an internet joke.
....please don't sue me. Its just an internet joke.
21
Pretty cheesy and extenuated analysis, even for a coupe of economists. You do realize that just because you multiple assumptions by other assumptions, that doesn't make it... you know... math. Throwing around numbers like this just gives a transparent facade of rigor, whereas in actuality the numbers you come up with are just as good as a blind guess.
A couple questions:
(i) Why is your analysis limited to men? Wouldn't married women cause problems too?
(ii) Were all users married? Why do you assume so? What does it do to your analysis if a large population isn't married (e.g., seeking to have a relation with a married person)?
(iii) How many users have multiple logins?
(iv) How many users are already divorced?
(v) Where did you come up with your "guess" that 10mm users were American? Your assumption that 15% of U.S. married men are members of a single site is absurd.
(vi) How does your guess line up to the fact that there were less than 9mm actual credit card accounts of all nationalities?
(vi) You then say that 50% of spouses checking the site is absurd, but then use the number anyway. Why?
(vii) You state your goal is to get the answer within an order of magnitude. You then multiply six different assumptions (you combined your first two). If each of those is off by 9% or more, you will be an entire order of magnitude off. Why is this acceptable to you as an economist?
A couple questions:
(i) Why is your analysis limited to men? Wouldn't married women cause problems too?
(ii) Were all users married? Why do you assume so? What does it do to your analysis if a large population isn't married (e.g., seeking to have a relation with a married person)?
(iii) How many users have multiple logins?
(iv) How many users are already divorced?
(v) Where did you come up with your "guess" that 10mm users were American? Your assumption that 15% of U.S. married men are members of a single site is absurd.
(vi) How does your guess line up to the fact that there were less than 9mm actual credit card accounts of all nationalities?
(vi) You then say that 50% of spouses checking the site is absurd, but then use the number anyway. Why?
(vii) You state your goal is to get the answer within an order of magnitude. You then multiply six different assumptions (you combined your first two). If each of those is off by 9% or more, you will be an entire order of magnitude off. Why is this acceptable to you as an economist?
60
It's been shown that 85% of users were men, while the women also had fake accounts. Do the math, read up on some biology and stop playing the sexist card. Men are known to and expected to stray more than women, it's an evolutionary imperative and biological fact. Unless there are patterns of male concubines/multiple brother-husband polygamy marriages/equal rates of women seeking gigolos that we don't know about.
2
These are all valid points points.
However, statistically errors with multiple assumptions will actually partially cancel out. So for instance, if you make six different (and independant) assumptions, with an estimated error of 9% for each, the resulting error would be only sqrt(6)*9% = 22% wich is definitely not an order of magnitude.
However, statistically errors with multiple assumptions will actually partially cancel out. So for instance, if you make six different (and independant) assumptions, with an estimated error of 9% for each, the resulting error would be only sqrt(6)*9% = 22% wich is definitely not an order of magnitude.
2
This isn't presented as being anything conclusive or rigorous. It's merely a simple (and interesting!) thought exercise about whether the theoretical mass dissolution of relationships is stimulative to the economy or otherwise. You've lost sight of the forest for the trees.
Could this article be more tone deaf? Looking at marriage through an emotionless economic lense is the exact problem with our country and our marriages.
8
That's economists for you. Although in this article it's one economist and one journalist whose dad is an economist.
3
It's disturbing that this revelatory event which demonstrates betrayal and a lackadaisical attitude about emotionally painful familial consequences is mainly reduced in this article to numbers. Recession v Stimulus numbers.
And the fact that men are responsible for this "cold-hearted" discussion and it's also men who seek DM affairs causes big questions to pop up regarding the fundamental nature of the male "beast." Or maybe it speaks to our culture and a need to train our young men in the importance of honesty and fidelity and the Golden Rule. And perhaps most importantly teach them to avoid making commitments until done with "playing the field." And no more "boys will be boys." That's not sufficient or okay when it comes to emotionally hurting significant others.
And the fact that men are responsible for this "cold-hearted" discussion and it's also men who seek DM affairs causes big questions to pop up regarding the fundamental nature of the male "beast." Or maybe it speaks to our culture and a need to train our young men in the importance of honesty and fidelity and the Golden Rule. And perhaps most importantly teach them to avoid making commitments until done with "playing the field." And no more "boys will be boys." That's not sufficient or okay when it comes to emotionally hurting significant others.
12
Well bkay you sound like an intelligent woman...too bad you speak from an ignorant (or is it naive?) point of view. Who exactly do you think these men are having affairs with? Snow angels? Yes I know how it all works on AM unlike those of you who just want to cast stones. There are plenty of women out there looking for something and just like men their interests vary from kinky one night stands to a meaningful connection. And yes there are otherwise very decent caring people out there. But that's besides the point. How people choose to explore their sexuality consensually behind closed doors should be their business alone. And how about being real about a culture that has reduced marriage to a contract and a trap for many. These are never simple choices people make. But they make then and understand the consequences.
6
Evidently, it is the responsibility of parents to set up a (what is supposed to remain) secret emergency bank account for their daughter as a wedding gift in which enough money is put away in preparation for the day when her very dubious husband will no doubt walk out or more likely beat her and she’ll have to leave—enough to tide her over for a couple of weeks. Full faith and credit. Beware people who give gifts of wooden blocks for a small child to solve the Towers of Hanoi; they may be playing a double game.
This is something of a myopic assessment, divorce attorneys, therapists and marriage counselors are bound to enjoy an uptick in business. I would assume the same for florists and jewelers as forgiveness is begged and bought. I'd also like to see how much of a bump there is when scorned wives decide to make there spouse pay for their infidelity by maxing out the credit cards before giving the bum the boot.
Not to mention with all those .gov and .mil email addresses I suspect we'll see a big bump in spending for internet security.
Not to mention with all those .gov and .mil email addresses I suspect we'll see a big bump in spending for internet security.
3
So, in other words, the hackers were working for IKEA.
59
I doubt most of the wives of these men don't know what they have. The main factor here would be the embarrassment of the wife of the cheater, who could previously pretend she didn't know. I don't doubt we'll find plenty of political and religious leaders' names on this once somebody makes the database searchable. Many people who write about family values, traditional marriage, and who otherwise hold themselves up as examples of what people should be. People don't talk about it, but 'traditional marriages' included the idea that the wife was chaste and loyal, but the husband was not. The relative numbers of would-be cheaters show that traditional marriage is alive and well.
37
I really doubt that anyone will be caught from this data dump because it is so large a collection to go through but, if they are and they suffer from it, then maybe the scam artists that run this site will get sued. Maybe lawyers will enjoy some economic gain from this.
2
I've seen the data dump myself it's all over the place you just have to know where to look. You can import the data into a mysql database, run a search using a search tool and easily run a search on the data. It won't be long before someone puts up a site/tool which does this for you automatically lol. There will be a lot of fake data/profiles but also a lot of real profiles because the people signing up thought the site was anonymous and secure. I think we can at least thank the hackers for making it clear to people that the site is not secure at all so if your going to cheat find a better way to do it.
1
Josh Duggar has been caught and has now confessed. Does schadenfreude count?
2
(FYI) There's a link to search email addresses and usernames: https://haveibeenpwned.com/
1
As a divorced person, just from the financial/economic point of view, never mind the emotional, the biggest impact was that, now, my ex-wife and I were committed to supporting two separate households, whereas in the past we shared the expenses. Huge impact on someone who is not rolling in dough.
Not only that, there were huge impacts in times of sharing custody, and meeting the extra expenses of that phenomenon.
My advice to people who are getting divorces, be prepared for this economic shock of two households and shared custody.
Not only that, there were huge impacts in times of sharing custody, and meeting the extra expenses of that phenomenon.
My advice to people who are getting divorces, be prepared for this economic shock of two households and shared custody.
31
Perhaps the one good thing to come out of this will be -- given that it's a bunch of well-off guys (almost all are men) globally that will be named and shamed -- people will finally start to see the need to seriously invest in internet privacy and security. Especially in the US.
34
If the hackers are to be believed many of the accounts were fake (creations of the owners of the site) and 90% of the account were male. I doubt any meaningful economic statistics can be obtain from analyzing the pathetic in pursuit of the fictitious. Now if this site had led to a significant number of consummated adulterous affairs that might be a different story.
5
Josh Duggar has now confessed to his unfaithfulness, which apparently continued after his previous come-to-Jesus moment regarding molesting young girls. Gotta love anything that takes down the religionists who claim things like how gays being allowed to marry is going to destroy marriage.
64
I am not a fan at all of Josh Duggar, but may I ask you something? Why is it now OK for atheists to be so openly hostile to Christians? It didn't used to be this way, but now it is cheered on. Sad.
Exploring the possible economic effects of the disclosure of millions of would-be cheating spouses.
I predict the economic impact will depend on how well divorce attorneys make out.
I predict the economic impact will depend on how well divorce attorneys make out.
2
I got to figure that the lawyers, realtors, and therapists will just be sending the disposable income of those getting divorced. This seems more like a quality of life issue.
I would just like to clarify that the only reason my address ended up on the list was due to my unfamiliarity with the internet thing and my forthcoming visit to Wisconsin, specifically the communities of Ashley and Madison and my interest in the lay of the land in those places.
190
Really?
Otherwise it would probably be on the list...