Somebody said that Trump running for office was like an internet comment section running for office (and not the NY Times, where there are moderators.) Lots of big talk, cheap shots, and totally false "facts." He appeals to people who like to shoot off their mouth. There will always be a lot of those people. But for the same reason, he will never win, because who wants a schoolyard bully as President? Unless you, yourself, are a schoolyard bully?
29
For better or worse, this is what's going to happen: Jeb will win the GOP primary and, reaching for the Latino vote and needing to win Fla., will pick Marco Rubio as his running mate. Not to be outdone, Hilary, who will easily win the Dem nomination, will choose HUD Secretary Julian Castro to run with her. (He's young, attractive, Latino and, most importantly to the Clintons, pliable.) Jeb will take Fla. by a razor-thin margin and will win the presidency.
5
polls don't appear to measure the lack of substance coming from the man. like glaring at an auto crash your interest is keen but lacks real depth. you are gonna drive by. many are looking cause the scene is so unusual but sooner or later you realize the dog is barking but it isn't saying anything just making noise. the clown draws attention but it is not the main show just filler before the main act starts.
the amazing stories is the willingness of the press to give so much airtime to such a blowhard
the amazing stories is the willingness of the press to give so much airtime to such a blowhard
21
As outrageous as Donald Trump is, he clearly knows how to influence the media, and a significant portion of the public as well. I doubt his potshot at John McCain will cause much harm to the Donald's poll ratings, as Sen McCain has substantial warts from some of his extreme right wing cries for more wars. Also, where has Sen McCain been on the VA's degradation over the past 10-20 years?
17
Would Trump be hanging ten on his tsunami of fear, anger and racism if the media, including this excellent newspaper, gave him so much room? Trump is intentionally provocative and divisive and speaks to the worst in us. Bernie Sanders, who is drawing cheering crowds in the thousands (over 4,000 in Louisiana last night) in bright red states with his message of compassionate activism, is hardly covered. The candidate who relies on our worst dominates the news. The candidate who works to inspire the best, barely a ripple. Would someone explain that, please?
101
Don't be mislead by Mr. Nate Cohn campaign to demolish Trump in each of his columns! Cohn predicts Trump's doom because he refuses to sit tightly in the Politically Correct boring box with everyone else, while Trump's polls are surging precisely because of that, winning Republicans, Independents (like me) and even democrats.
Better than reading useless speculations by hostile pundits go to the source and listen to Trump's interview on the topic with NBC, on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zC04tiMAfx8
Better than reading useless speculations by hostile pundits go to the source and listen to Trump's interview on the topic with NBC, on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zC04tiMAfx8
15
People usually poll extremely high when they're not running and are well-known. As far as people are concerned, he is great since not a single person thinks he can win. Ask the question -- Do you think he'll win? The numbers will drop. This is the same poll you'll get for Hillary Clinton when she wasn't running for anything. She had high popularity. Right now, her numbers will necessarily fall, but ask people, "Who do you think will win?" and her name will always come out on top.
When people go to the voting booth and think that Trump has even a remote possibility of winning and whether they want him to represent us as President (or even the Republican nominee), his numbers will tank, and they will tank fast. Sara Palin only made it on the ticket because of McCain's idiocy. Trump has zero chance of winning the ticket.
When people go to the voting booth and think that Trump has even a remote possibility of winning and whether they want him to represent us as President (or even the Republican nominee), his numbers will tank, and they will tank fast. Sara Palin only made it on the ticket because of McCain's idiocy. Trump has zero chance of winning the ticket.
17
Of course he's unlikely to win the nomination - the run is a marathon, not a sprint, and Trump has neither the training, the attention span, nor the stomach for a protracted race.
What is delicious, though, is the way he clearly has no respect at all for the others in the race, and how vocal and direct he is about it.
His repeated calling out of the hypocrisy, stupidity, and waffling of the Republicans running is important for the country, coming as it does from a fellow Republican who is beholden to NO ONE financially, especially the RNC.
So refreshing to have a candidate wealthy enough to not give a damn and speak his mind - something that hasn't happened in modern times.
What is delicious, though, is the way he clearly has no respect at all for the others in the race, and how vocal and direct he is about it.
His repeated calling out of the hypocrisy, stupidity, and waffling of the Republicans running is important for the country, coming as it does from a fellow Republican who is beholden to NO ONE financially, especially the RNC.
So refreshing to have a candidate wealthy enough to not give a damn and speak his mind - something that hasn't happened in modern times.
33
Statistics can be squeezed any which way an author wants. The real and only "poll" is that from the ballot box in November of 2016.
Trump is an ego looking to be stroked. All he is good for is to shake, not stir, the other 15, so far, republicans running around looking for a vote.
Trump is an ego looking to be stroked. All he is good for is to shake, not stir, the other 15, so far, republicans running around looking for a vote.
11
Trump has appeared as the front runner because there is a great vacuum of leadership in the Republican Party. The party faithful continue to look for someone to lead, but the Laffer Curve loving leadership keeps trying to promote tax cuts for the rich and social security cuts for the rest of us.
IF you want to find out why the members aren't following the leaders, ask the Republican voters some non leading questions. Do you think the Social Security age requirement for full benefits should be raised, kept the same, or lowered? Do you think a woman should have the right to decide if she is going to have an abortion? Do you think college should be more affordable? Should we use tax dollars to supplement the income of people who work full time for corporations that make over a million dollars in profits?
The Republican party staffers clearly dislike Trump, one consultant said that Trumps 21% compared to Bush's 14% and everyone else less, meant that 79% of the Republicans didn't like Trump. How is that for an abuse of numbers? Trump will lose in the debates.
IF you want to find out why the members aren't following the leaders, ask the Republican voters some non leading questions. Do you think the Social Security age requirement for full benefits should be raised, kept the same, or lowered? Do you think a woman should have the right to decide if she is going to have an abortion? Do you think college should be more affordable? Should we use tax dollars to supplement the income of people who work full time for corporations that make over a million dollars in profits?
The Republican party staffers clearly dislike Trump, one consultant said that Trumps 21% compared to Bush's 14% and everyone else less, meant that 79% of the Republicans didn't like Trump. How is that for an abuse of numbers? Trump will lose in the debates.
10
Whether you support Trump or not, how he performs in this first debate is what will make or break him. I think he'll either a. Fail miserably against his more practiced peers, and that will be the end or b. rise to the top of the Republican pack, and stay there--at least until the next debate.
6
People are fed up with the mainstream candidates on both sides. But this is unacceptable to the pundits and talking heads because it violates their sense of how things should be. It shows their predictive science may be nothing of the kind. So they cover their eyes and put fingers in their ears and hum comforting tunes from their childhood to block out what is really happening.
This happened with Bernie Sanders. Now it is happening with Trump. On a personal level, I support Sanders and hope Trump disappears. But in either case, we must accept what is happening.
“Understanding is the first step to acceptance, and only with acceptance can there be recovery.” Albus Dumbledore
This happened with Bernie Sanders. Now it is happening with Trump. On a personal level, I support Sanders and hope Trump disappears. But in either case, we must accept what is happening.
“Understanding is the first step to acceptance, and only with acceptance can there be recovery.” Albus Dumbledore
31
Yet another in a series of, "Trump must fall" predictions. Pundits, political wonks, and prognosticators are unanimous in their predictions of a soon to be humpty dumpty style fall for the Donald. Here, we're treated to a numbers person telling us, "don't believe the numbers!" and a wrongheaded comp to Herman Cain. Here's a number for you...20% Trump has about 20% support inside the GOP, and the GOP base is disgusted with the Conservative, "establishment" as represented by Mitch McConnell, and John McCain. Trump can go 3rd party and he could take a good number of the 20% with him if he does. The political press has failed the public by both misrepresenting and misinterpreting the Trump candidacy, what it says about the GOP and the implications for the 2016 Presidential election. I think Nate Cohen is going to have to recalibrate his data points to reflect the reality that will soon dawn on him and his fellows in the aftermath of the first GOP debate on August 6th...
10
The Republicans generally and Trump specifically should get back the THE issue on which they make the most sense: Obama's birth certificate. I am not saying I agree with them on this point, but they certainly make a lot more sense on Obama's birth certificate than when they speak about the economy, jobs, immigration, terrorism, national defense, women's rights, gun control . . .
4
Yet another in a series of, "Trump must fall" predictions. Pundits, political wonks, and prognosticators are unanimous in their predictions of a soon to be humpty dumpty style fall for the Donald.
Here, we're treated to a numbers person telling us, "don't believe the numbers!" and a wrongheaded comp to Herman Cain. Here's a number for you...20%
Trump has about 20% support inside the GOP, and the GOP base is disgusted with the Conservative, "establishment" as represented by Mitch McConnell, and John McCain. Trump can go 3rd party and he could take a good number of the 20% with him if he does.
The political press has failed the public by both misrepresenting and misinterpreting the Trump candidacy, what it says about the GOP and the implications for the 2016 Presidential election.
I think Nate Cohen is going to have to recalibrate his data points to reflect the reality that will soon dawn on him and his fellows in the aftermath of the first GOP debate on August 6th...
Here, we're treated to a numbers person telling us, "don't believe the numbers!" and a wrongheaded comp to Herman Cain. Here's a number for you...20%
Trump has about 20% support inside the GOP, and the GOP base is disgusted with the Conservative, "establishment" as represented by Mitch McConnell, and John McCain. Trump can go 3rd party and he could take a good number of the 20% with him if he does.
The political press has failed the public by both misrepresenting and misinterpreting the Trump candidacy, what it says about the GOP and the implications for the 2016 Presidential election.
I think Nate Cohen is going to have to recalibrate his data points to reflect the reality that will soon dawn on him and his fellows in the aftermath of the first GOP debate on August 6th...
6
Perhaps we are misled because the media, just can't stop talking about Trump. If an alien from another planet landed and read our papers and watched our TV, it would have to conclude that Trump and Bruce Jenner are necessary to sustain life on Earth.
21
One thing that, I think, various reporters do not understand is that people who respect McCain's service, his character and his courage DO NOT see him as a hero. His ordeal was not unlike the many others held in North Vietnam yet, I suspect, almost no one can name any of the other 500 to 600 also held. As a Vietnam vet I can honestly say I have great respect for McCain and all the others but heroism, in my opinion, is not survival it is placing your life in harms way to save another. Whether this issue will bring down Trump is unknown but had he expressed it better I don't think it would be much of an issue. BTW, I suspect Trump will implode but probably not on this issue.
10
Trumpty Dumpty led in the poll,
Trumpty Dumpty had a great role.
And afterward all the GOP's horses and all the GOP's men
Couldn't put the Republican Party back together again.
Trumpty Dumpty had a great role.
And afterward all the GOP's horses and all the GOP's men
Couldn't put the Republican Party back together again.
22
There has already been enough analysis on this that it seems clear Trump went from rising steadily to falling slightly. So not unscathed, but not knocked out of the race as pretty much the entire GOP establishment was insisting immediately after the remarks.
The real question is where he goes from here. The McCain thing clearly hurt him, but just as clearly hasn't killed his run. The first debate is coming up. Trump could very well still be the front-runner at that point. Which means that he'll be right at the center of things just as most people really start paying attention. That could lead to him making another gaffe and finally flaming out... OR a return to his previous rise in the polls.
The real question is where he goes from here. The McCain thing clearly hurt him, but just as clearly hasn't killed his run. The first debate is coming up. Trump could very well still be the front-runner at that point. Which means that he'll be right at the center of things just as most people really start paying attention. That could lead to him making another gaffe and finally flaming out... OR a return to his previous rise in the polls.
There's a problem with a feedback loop: people hearing that Trump is high in the polls will continue to think highly of Trump no matter what he says or does. It basically goes like this: since so many other people like Trump, then I must like him too.
So many people are just like sheep.
So many people are just like sheep.
13
it's laughable to imagine anyone with functioning braincells needs to subject Trump to a 'process of scrutiny' to dismiss him.
No need to fire that guy - he should never even get hired to run a broom closet, let alone a nation.
No need to fire that guy - he should never even get hired to run a broom closet, let alone a nation.
10
Are you sure it's not Democrats who are pushing up Trump's poll numbers because he'd be the ideal candidate to beat?
13
Of all the candidates Trump is the most moderate and most likely to cross party lines when choosing a cabinet. As a swing voter I am a fiscal Republican and social Democrat. I see him as an alternative with strong leadership abilities.
I think he's viable.
I think he's viable.
11
I hope Trump wins the Republican nomination. It assures a Democrat as President. I may start donating to his campaign.
13
Please don't let polls affect the process of scrutiny (nor editors' political leaning). These polls have been vastly skewed by the reduced use of landlines and cannot reflect opinions as accurately as they may have in the past. Not only millennials, but genX and the elderly "greatest generation" members are increasingly using cell phones and are no longer in the population these polls intend to survey.
All this is fine with me - as a voter, I make up my own mind and don't let mass opinion influence me.
All this is fine with me - as a voter, I make up my own mind and don't let mass opinion influence me.
5
I don't know what to think about The Donald's apparent popularity, other than I don't discount it.
My electrician - a really good electrician - thinks The Donald is onto something in his ideas concerning illegal immigration. He agreed with me, after some consideration, that it would make more sense to prosecute citizens who hired illegals but still wants to build a wall to keep illegals out. That the border is a couple thousand miles is minor to him.
At a party this weekend in suburban NY, just a few train stops up the Hudson, a well-off suburban woman seemed taken aback that I consider the Donald to be mostly vanity, coupled with arrogance, a big mouth, and a willingness to use other people's money to enrich himself, all of which I don't consider excellent qualities for leadership. She thinks he is great.
So he appeals, here in the bluest of states, to well off suburbanites, and blue collar working people, equally. That is a broad demographic.
My electrician - a really good electrician - thinks The Donald is onto something in his ideas concerning illegal immigration. He agreed with me, after some consideration, that it would make more sense to prosecute citizens who hired illegals but still wants to build a wall to keep illegals out. That the border is a couple thousand miles is minor to him.
At a party this weekend in suburban NY, just a few train stops up the Hudson, a well-off suburban woman seemed taken aback that I consider the Donald to be mostly vanity, coupled with arrogance, a big mouth, and a willingness to use other people's money to enrich himself, all of which I don't consider excellent qualities for leadership. She thinks he is great.
So he appeals, here in the bluest of states, to well off suburbanites, and blue collar working people, equally. That is a broad demographic.
17
So this article seems to be confirming the fact that Trumps numbers would have been much higher had it not been for his controversial statements? Wonder how high his numbers would have been?
One thing the media doesn't get. The people make the choices. Doesn't matter whether your brown, black, white or red, or a combat veteran hero, the people are disgusted with the status quo! People desire a different direction for this nation! If it can be someone like Trump that delivers that new direction then so be it.
Of all the candidates Trump is the only one not status quo. Most of the candidates have been molded, by themselves or the people supporting them with money and perks, only to be in the position to run for the Presidency.
This country does not need a status quo President. Many people will support and vote for the opposite just because they want no more of the same.
It might be an interesting outcome at the end of it all. At the very least, polititions should take note of the amount of people not satisfied with their continuation of Washington nonsense.
One thing the media doesn't get. The people make the choices. Doesn't matter whether your brown, black, white or red, or a combat veteran hero, the people are disgusted with the status quo! People desire a different direction for this nation! If it can be someone like Trump that delivers that new direction then so be it.
Of all the candidates Trump is the only one not status quo. Most of the candidates have been molded, by themselves or the people supporting them with money and perks, only to be in the position to run for the Presidency.
This country does not need a status quo President. Many people will support and vote for the opposite just because they want no more of the same.
It might be an interesting outcome at the end of it all. At the very least, polititions should take note of the amount of people not satisfied with their continuation of Washington nonsense.
8
You are underestimating the depth of disgust that more than a few GOP voters feel towards Jeb Bush. The man views his family as akin to the House of Windsor and probably thinks of his own mother Barbara as being like the Queen Elizabeth II of America. Few people respond well to a family that views the White House as belonging to them by birthright.
Added to all that is the fact that Jeb is the younger brother of one of the most disastrous US presidents in history. George W. and Jeb Bush make Fidel and Raul Castro look like John and Robert F. Kennedy. As long as Bush is in the race, Trump will be there and continue to poll strongly.
Added to all that is the fact that Jeb is the younger brother of one of the most disastrous US presidents in history. George W. and Jeb Bush make Fidel and Raul Castro look like John and Robert F. Kennedy. As long as Bush is in the race, Trump will be there and continue to poll strongly.
19
How about a head-to-head match-up between Trump and Hillary? Or between Trump and Ronald McDonald for that matter?
10
GOP Leaders and Media Collaborators Want to Force Trump Out
Trump has been ruthlessly criticizing his GOP competition and has devastated their campaigns. His surge in the polls is more a reflection of that than his own popularity which creates a huge problem for the GOP and Morning Joe.
Even liberals like what he says about the Vietnam war, Jeb! and the Koch Bros. chosen one - Scott W.
Trump has been ruthlessly criticizing his GOP competition and has devastated their campaigns. His surge in the polls is more a reflection of that than his own popularity which creates a huge problem for the GOP and Morning Joe.
Even liberals like what he says about the Vietnam war, Jeb! and the Koch Bros. chosen one - Scott W.
14
I would like to see the media do a comparison of the current crop of contenders with those who ran for President in the 50's and 60's. I would also like to see a comparison of how the campaigns were run between these two periods. I, for one, cannot understand the hubris of these candidates who think they can and should be our President.
8
Doesn't this obsession on polls by the media border on journalistic malpractice? So if Mr. A is at x% which exceeds Mr. B at y%, but the margin of error is a multiple of (x -y), then any ranking is suspect.
This reporting compounds the issue of the low-information voters who may change their minds based on sensationalism and the confirmation of their biases by the suspect polls.
This reporting compounds the issue of the low-information voters who may change their minds based on sensationalism and the confirmation of their biases by the suspect polls.
7
Don't be misled by this article. Trump has identified a critical issue that most politicians are afraid to directly address, and he possibly speaks for the majority of voters.
16
Why downplay Trumps popularity?
Let's hope he makes a clean sweep of his party's nomination so we can appreciate the unadulterated full-force of his minions lurching across prime-time.
The vast, unbroken swath of red-state minions, fed for generations on an unadulterated diet of republican red-meat-radio & roundup-ready overspray is more fun to watch than Zombie Week on the Chiller Chanel.
The republican elites who created this monster should be forced to contend with the multigenerational ideological mess their greed-based, bigoted fundamentalist propaganda made of middle America since the Reagan era.
This is the best show to hit prime time since Sarah Palin and the Tea-Birthers.
Somehow I don't see Trump's followers having too much sympathy for John McCain who they see as a an unforgivable looser to a black president.
Bring on The Donald, cheer his ascendancy, and let us all see how ugly the Americans really are.
Let's hope he makes a clean sweep of his party's nomination so we can appreciate the unadulterated full-force of his minions lurching across prime-time.
The vast, unbroken swath of red-state minions, fed for generations on an unadulterated diet of republican red-meat-radio & roundup-ready overspray is more fun to watch than Zombie Week on the Chiller Chanel.
The republican elites who created this monster should be forced to contend with the multigenerational ideological mess their greed-based, bigoted fundamentalist propaganda made of middle America since the Reagan era.
This is the best show to hit prime time since Sarah Palin and the Tea-Birthers.
Somehow I don't see Trump's followers having too much sympathy for John McCain who they see as a an unforgivable looser to a black president.
Bring on The Donald, cheer his ascendancy, and let us all see how ugly the Americans really are.
45
I think this article misses the mark. Whether (when) Trump goes down in the poll is not important. What IS important is that a man that is more caricature than person (and known as such to much of the US of A) got in the polls in the first place. Analyzing why that is I think it would be more important to understanding a certain section of the republicans.
As for all the posters that say they do agree with him on either the Hispanic comment or the McCain comment: I am shocked you would think so however I am not surprised. BUT I AM more shocked that you would be so desperate for someone in politics to "agree" with your point of view that you would be willing to oversee all the "Trump sized" faults of one Donald Trump.
As for all the posters that say they do agree with him on either the Hispanic comment or the McCain comment: I am shocked you would think so however I am not surprised. BUT I AM more shocked that you would be so desperate for someone in politics to "agree" with your point of view that you would be willing to oversee all the "Trump sized" faults of one Donald Trump.
9
Love him or hate him, a large part of the electorate wants an open and honest discussion about the serious issues facing this nation. And it is not just the immigration issue. Trump has tapped into the growing anxiety about the effects of globalization on the future of the working class and the anger over the destruction of our manufacturing base. The people have been fed the same pablum by politicians of both parties on how globalization is good for them but they are finally waking up after 30 years to what a nightmare it is for those who aren't working at hedge funds or designing Apple products.
19
Pundits and commentators make far too much of this cliche, "Open and Honest Discusssion." You can get that in any redneck dive bar, barbershop, or subway station. In a presidential contest, what is required is a discusssion that is intelligent, informed, rational, reasonable, and professionally competent --and Trump is grossly incapable of any of those. Elections, even for mayor or dog catcher, are about competence, not "open discussion."
24
An entire column with no relevant information but a happy Aesops fable moral ending based on no evidence.
Statistics is great! It makes fools gods.
Statistics is great! It makes fools gods.
12
Trump will not win the presidency as he is simply too extreme. However, his current popularity reveals the GOP for who they are: Ignorant, fearful, angry, hate-mongering control freaks who are being whip-sawed by America's changing demographics as we move toward a much more racially and ethnically diverse population.
46
the gist of trump's appeal is that he is not a party politician. he has made an effort to humiliate the politicians -- perry, graham, rubio, mccain -- at every turn. and the far right sees 2008 as mccain's to lose: if only he'd listened to palin! so trump's base is really not going to give two cents for what the pundits and politicians have to say about trump.
on the other hand, i think 24% is a pretty good achievement for a politician with a dozen contenders. the question is, how far his poll numbers may rise as other candidates drop out of the race. that will be the true and accurate measure of the proportion of the US population that is just totally nuts.
on the other hand, i think 24% is a pretty good achievement for a politician with a dozen contenders. the question is, how far his poll numbers may rise as other candidates drop out of the race. that will be the true and accurate measure of the proportion of the US population that is just totally nuts.
9
Wow. This is the first time I've seen Mr. Cohn cite the problem of old data. Previously, I've only seen him use old data to support his conclusions.
New data will have the final word. But I do not expect the McCain remarks will change the poll results significantly.
What is the real source of the anti-Trump anger?
Career Republicans are outraged, not by Trump's remarks, but because they envy his poll numbers. The media is outraged because Trump is playing them like a violin. But polls and elections are decided by voters, who are clearly disgusted with the current crop of politicians. I don't think they care very much about insulting McCain.
The fact is that Washington is broken. Sadly, it is so broken that people enjoy Trump's unfiltered antics. Maybe the career Republicans should shelve the phony outrage and look within and see that their hatred spawned Trump. Their views are just as bad. Where was their outrage when Trump was their hitman, with his birther campaign? Where was their outrage when Kerry's war record was smeared? etc etc
New data will have the final word. But I do not expect the McCain remarks will change the poll results significantly.
What is the real source of the anti-Trump anger?
Career Republicans are outraged, not by Trump's remarks, but because they envy his poll numbers. The media is outraged because Trump is playing them like a violin. But polls and elections are decided by voters, who are clearly disgusted with the current crop of politicians. I don't think they care very much about insulting McCain.
The fact is that Washington is broken. Sadly, it is so broken that people enjoy Trump's unfiltered antics. Maybe the career Republicans should shelve the phony outrage and look within and see that their hatred spawned Trump. Their views are just as bad. Where was their outrage when Trump was their hitman, with his birther campaign? Where was their outrage when Kerry's war record was smeared? etc etc
58
It would be interesting to see an analysis of these pollsters' accuracy at picking the eventual nominee and elected President at this point in the 2012 campaign.
I suspect that early personal preferences prior to a debate period and an actual primary do not correlate to eventual voting behavior ... and perhaps correlate inversely.
I suspect that early personal preferences prior to a debate period and an actual primary do not correlate to eventual voting behavior ... and perhaps correlate inversely.
1
Clinton/Castro wins by 30 points over Bush/Kasich
There is my prediction.
There is my prediction.
3
There is a solid percentage of Republicans who like Trump's style. My guess is that his poll percentage will level off at some point and pretty much stay put. The real question is: Can he win any of the primaries?
2
These polls might also to continue to show a shallow and superficial electorate - how do people chnage their opinion about preferences for the president of the united states based on one speech, one action, one op-ed article? Trump has been around for decades - he is who he is - there are no surprises that he would make outlandish comments to seek publicity. Of course I never understood how any President's poll numbers substantively changed from week to week either. I'd love to see an (upshot) analysis of how the patterns of opinion have changed over the years - I know people have short memories about politicians - but is that now a one day short term memory?
5
The major test isn't what the media or the Democrats or the left wing thinks, it's whether or not Trump can transition his early success into a ground game and the political organization necessary to win the nomination and the presidency. Before dropping out Ross Perot had 36 to 39 percent in the polls. Trump is following the same populist model used by William Jennings Bryan and Teddy Roosevelt and others including Ross Perot to take on the establishment. Trump still has a window of opportunity to capture enough points to win the nomination if he acts soon and spends the money to develop a media buy and boots on the ground in each of the states. Time and history are not on his side, he only has a few months before the logistics of the establishment candidates overtake Trump's initial surge. On the other hand, if he was to spend about 30 million in the next three weeks and gains a 45% republican following early on, he could win the nomination.
11
The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about - Oscar Wilde
28
Trump clearly represents over 20% of the republican party and I don't think we'll see him slip far. That 20% doesn't like McCain. Going after Kerry's record never hurt Bush. Of course they just funded the effort, didn't say it themselves.
10
We won't be misled if you're not. We might not even care.
3
Unfortunately, all companies are making huge efforts to support Trump.
1
This is not a story. Donald Trump is not a story. We walk about him waiting for the train wreck to happen. How about we all agree that this is a joke and stop talking about it!
5
How else to generate flashy content on a tight schedule? Working out the real trends rather than celebrating the blips is so ... wonky.
Ultimately the GOP will settle down and concentrate on the real qualities that make a candidate great. Like hair, for instance.
25
I am perplexed as to the supposed impropriety of Trump trashing McCain's honor, because, during the 2000 Republican primaries (and at other times), Karl Rove and the Republican machine promulgated far worse, e.g., rumors that McCain had collaborated with the North Vietnamese to save his life. And where was the POW group voice then? In other words, this appears to be manufactured condemnation.
52
Trump is running against politicians and the political media. He causes them headaches because he can't be dismissed as easily as other niche candidates.
Comparing him to Herman Cain is a mistake. He is self funding and that makes him a little more like Ross Perot. I'm not saying he is going to win, but I think he causes big problems for Cruz, Paul, Santorum, Walker, Perry and any other right wing nut jobs in the race.
Comparing him to Herman Cain is a mistake. He is self funding and that makes him a little more like Ross Perot. I'm not saying he is going to win, but I think he causes big problems for Cruz, Paul, Santorum, Walker, Perry and any other right wing nut jobs in the race.
35
Keep in mind that the voters Trump must win to his side are Republicans in primary states, who are uniformly conservative, anti-government, pro-life and pro-defense. Trump's public record doesn't match up well -- if at all -- with these positions, so beyond the bluster and braggadocio, the Donald will have a tough time persuading right wingers to cast their ballots for him rather than one of the other GOP wannabes.
1
Ya, this is the guy I want with his finger on the button.
26
What we desperately need in this country is a discussion of the issues confronting the American people. Unfortunately, our media obsessively focuses on the "horse race" aspects and the minutia of political strategy. No real debate ever happens and our politics is dominated by only those who's money gives them a loud voice.
52
Most conservatives regard John McCain as public enemy number one. Trump's comments will probably attract as many new supporters as they repel.
26
At some point it will become clear that Mr. Trump cannot win the nomination, even to him. Not one who can take defeat, he will declare victory in his own terms and exit before the defeat. These polls at this point are meaningless to him, but he will notice the slide when his footing erodes. But, he will leave the race "victorious" in some terms he will find meaningful.
5
He will run as an Independent.
2
We're a little over six months away from the Iowa caucus (Feb. 1), the start of voting for the Republican primary. Soon enough accurate polling data, asking pertinent questions of an appropriate sampling of the Republican voting public, will be generated and released, providing data on how Republicans really feel about Mr. Trump in light of his latest statements.
4
last time around, Giuliani was the front runner. Trump's front runner status will last about as long.
These poll results have allowed the talking heads all on networks (and some editorial writers at the Times and elsewhere) to justify their continuing to chatter away ad nauseam about a man who hasn't a prayer of getting the nomination. Few, if any, have bothered to give the relevant information given in this column, i.e. the date the poll was taken rather than the date it was released.
8
At what point are the Beltway People going to realize that out in "fly over country " there is a huge (and apparently growing) mass of people who not only identify with the Toup but think he doesn't go far enough. Sure they might hesitate about how the Toup insulted Gran Torino but a few "you're fired" jokes later and all will be forgiven.
In fact, why is the press so surprised by Trump's numbers. The only difference between Trump and other conservative "mainstream" politicians is that Trump doesn't speak in code. Republicans made their bed when they fell for Nixon's "southern strategy", well now those chickens have come home to roost. Those racist, bigoted, ignorant, loud chickens.
In fact, why is the press so surprised by Trump's numbers. The only difference between Trump and other conservative "mainstream" politicians is that Trump doesn't speak in code. Republicans made their bed when they fell for Nixon's "southern strategy", well now those chickens have come home to roost. Those racist, bigoted, ignorant, loud chickens.
96
I agree! Trump is the idiot child of Nixon's southern strategy, still bearing STRANGE FRUIT!
6
This is no head scratcher. The Trump phenomenon can be explained very simply. People en masse are sick and tired of Illegal immigrants pouring over the borders and Obama warehousing them at taxpayer expense rather then sending them back from whence they came. And more infuriating is the lefts retort of "if you don't like it pass comprehensive immigration reform", which of course is thinly veiled code for amnesty (at least as the liberals see it). People ho don't happen to identify as latino are sick and tired of immigrants over running our borders, and Presidential hopefuls on both sides of the aisle ignore this simple fact at their own peril.
24
Sorry, but you're seriously misinformed.
Obama has deported illegal immigrants at a faster rate than any president in 20 years.
The rater of illegal immigration from Mexico has slowed to a crawl.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/02/u-s-deportations-of-immi...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/flow-of-illegal-immigration-slows...
These are facts.
Obama has deported illegal immigrants at a faster rate than any president in 20 years.
The rater of illegal immigration from Mexico has slowed to a crawl.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/02/u-s-deportations-of-immi...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/flow-of-illegal-immigration-slows...
These are facts.
67
Obama has deported illegal immigrants at a faster rate than any president in 20 years. And, the rater of illegal immigration from Mexico has slowed to a crawl.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/02/u-s-deportations-of-immi...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/flow-of-illegal-immigration-slows...
These are facts.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/02/u-s-deportations-of-immi...
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/flow-of-illegal-immigration-slows...
These are facts.
3
With respect to Donald Trump, Republicans may be whistling past the graveyard while Democrats ... are just whistling.
17
Every time this man opens his mouth Bob Dylan's song "Idiot Wind" comes to mind.
28
"What’s important is that the process of scrutiny, from party leaders and journalists, is now underway." Really, journalists here to save the world from Trump? A bit of horn tooting by the reporter, as if the public can't render their own minds made up and their own decisions made. Thank God for Journalism school and those bright stars shining the way forward for the rest of us blind bats.
13
If the collapse of Trump is certai, why are there articles daily assuring us this will happen.
Im no fan of Donald Trump but I love hearing how Lindsey Graham and Scott Walker went kissing up to him. Can you imagine President Obama taking a plaque to Trump
Go for it Donald, tell us more about your pathetic competition
Im no fan of Donald Trump but I love hearing how Lindsey Graham and Scott Walker went kissing up to him. Can you imagine President Obama taking a plaque to Trump
Go for it Donald, tell us more about your pathetic competition
9
And don' forget that the republican party in Sarasota, Florida named him "Statesman of the Year." Twice.
1
I'm by no means a McCain fan, but he flew combat sorties in Vietnam, got shot down, and was imprisoned for five years. That Trump's schoolyard ridiculing of McCain's war record didn't take him out of the race, much less hurt his poll numbers, should make Republicans take a long hard look at what they (say they) stand for.
100
Don't forget that McCain was offered the opportunity to be released early due to his status as an admiral's son. McCain refused and stayed with his men. I don't like McCain much either, but his decision to endure additional years of torture and imprisonment to be with his men makes him a hero.
The Donald evaded service due to a bone spur. What a loser.
The Donald evaded service due to a bone spur. What a loser.
8
But this is nothing new for Republicans.
Remember the swiftboating of John Kerry?
Apparently, for the GOP, criticizing decorated veterans is fine, so long as they're Democrats.
Remember the swiftboating of John Kerry?
Apparently, for the GOP, criticizing decorated veterans is fine, so long as they're Democrats.
5
In my view, nothing is going to hurt Trump's poll ratings. But, nothing is going to help them either. I believe his 20% or so (of Republican voters) represents a hardcore fringe, made up almost entirely of older white males, and that 'fringe' will remain constant. So, expect to see Mr. Trump stuck at this number while, as candidates drop out, others (read Jeb Bush) will pass him. Ultimately, he will have to make a third party run and, thus, destroy the Republican's chances of taking the White House. I like this.
Support Trump, Let's give Trump all the support he needs to express the hate in the republican party.
46
Nate, your theory might hold some water if the Tea Party types who support Trump actually were offended by what he said. But in speaking to a big-time Tea Party friend of mine, he's fully supportive of Trump and even more so now because this is further proof to him that Donald Trump "speaks his mind". And the comments I've read by far Right Wing posters on social media say much the same thing.
Here in New Hampshire, don't expect to see Trump's polling numbers deflected by this "gaffe" because his supporters don't see it as a gaffe at all.
Here in New Hampshire, don't expect to see Trump's polling numbers deflected by this "gaffe" because his supporters don't see it as a gaffe at all.
62
He speaks his mind alright. It's a pity that his mind is so small.
I think perhaps that growth on his head has invaded his skull.
I think perhaps that growth on his head has invaded his skull.
7
What goes around, comes around. Or give and ye shall receive? Trump is the end result of not only the Republicans maniacal behavior over the past few decades, but also an example of the anger that Americans have over the power of big money in what our elections have become. What the Democrats can't seem to grasp is that Sanders is too. What both campaigns prove is that a majority of of Americans have absolutely no faith in either party anymore. They are angry about the lack of real representation of our supposed elected. They are not elected, they are bought, tooth and nail. Yes, Trump is a maniac. Sanders is not. He's real. And that's what a large portion of those of us that have supported the Democrats for years have been searching for. REAL! Trump will probably fall by the wayside on the Republican side. But, Bernie ain't going anywhere anytime soon.
121
Your comments are more about a progressive's wish than anything else.
2
I am curious - who are they polling and what is the methodology? Are polling organizations still cold-calling landline phone numbers? The tech saavy (probably also better educated, etc.) have blocked unknown numbers and robocallers. The younger demographic no longer has landlines. How do pollsters adjust for the lack of information from those groups? Or are the few people they have managed to reach representing entire segments?
51
They didn't poll me. Trump resonates with a LOT of people! I never liked him. I Do NOW! The other candidates on both sides are scared
7
They probably polled someone who feels similarly to you, though. Polls don't need to be a complete census in order to draw conclusions.
2
He may even get the nomination given his rhetoric and inability to admit anything he does is wrong. I have contracted him and the other republicans with the democratic candidates. While the Republicans preach about how afraid I need to me, the democrats seem to focus on what they actually want to do when in office. I have yet to hear Trump or any other Republican lay out a plan for the country. But I don't blame the Republicans, after all what are they going to campaign on, their platform and ideals?