Many people ,and not only you, are delusional about the free market and what computers will do for us. There is too much hanky panky going on in the "free market" and we are held as hostage by lawyers, copyrights, patents and all kinds of nonsense that the government administers under the theory that this makes the market run better. I find a mess and a half trying to process my medical claims that a child could understand. Why was ACA such a disaster when rolled out? That is because the "market" is not free and all types of "friends and family" deals are going on that are not technology in nature. The mess is based on knowing the right people and not technical skills. As an example we could not sell a satellite transponder because there was a carrier in there that a flurry of phone calls to different sites and different people made to an army of people sitting on computer screens. After a few months I finally got fed up and asked for an engineering to look at the carrier with a spectrum analyzer. He identified the problem in one minute. Isn't this what is going on with the intelligence agencies storing massive amounts of trivia and not paying attention to something serious?
33
The "disruption" discussed in the article keeps me up at night as I think about how to raise and train my 10 and 11 year old kids so they can be happy, productive, and hopefully comfortable grown ups. The issues around the disruption that is already here should be on the front page of the paper every day.
47
You ignore where the real action is, apart from the use of guns: private business. Educated people tend to focus on government, but businesses now dominate our political system. One result has been that they largely do what they want, insulated from government supervision. In addition, they are getting the government to either terminate its functions or delegate them to businesses. The public funds wars that government fights, but those are mostly for the benefit of private security and defense industries. Pretty soon, private industry will complete the repurchase of its publicly owned stock and will then constitute self-perpetuating fiefdoms that can exercise virtually all the powers we associate now with government. Think Roman senators in the early Dark Ages. That was not for long a period of disorder like the one you are describing; the large landowners and the German tribes (the defense contractors of the day) soon created the medieval order that divided the world into a handful of lords and a starving horde of serfs.
52
Why do any of the presidential candidates WANT to be president? Do they themselves know?
21
As people lose more and more of their livelihood maybe a creative developer will see the need for an UBER like iPhone application that provides large mobs with mobile guillotining services.
25
I doubt Hillary or Jeb..or any of the current crop of hopeful candidates understands or has the ability to understand the multi dimensional magnitude of the disruption described in this article by Mr. Friedman. They are "old school" with old templates. The new stuff is being minted faster than they can keep up. Applying the old templates for solutions simply won't work. For example: How will ISIS be defeated? They will propose one of two approaches: 1) stay the failing course with tepid air strikes or, 2) boots on the ground for a limited period of time. Other solutions like leave it to the U/N., or engage other countries (i.e. Europe) to do more, or ask China for assistance, or simply hem them in and let them kill each other won't be considered. Old school. Hillary is one person and a known quantity. She'll surround herself with familiar faces and proceed with caution to ensure re-election. Jeb will dither and ultimately do nothing productive. The office of president is under the current circumstances kind of obsolete... it needs to have a new job description written to reflect current realities...
36
State of the Art Technology is arriving fast And dont forget Electricity without a huge power plant nearby with a battery that hangs on your wall and feed all your energy needs...effectively turning their ordinary people into power plant owners...thanks to Tesla! And the consequences are that many Utilities and Government entities (and their above average income earners - when compared to those less fortunate in unskilled jobs) who are in charge of POWER might just become obsolete! This is just the beginning: Home manufacturing is about to take off with inventions such as 3D printers! In the end nothing serves the consumer better than real competition! The ride will be exiting in the coming years.
8
Friedman needs to read some Kurt Vonnegut. Then he has to realize that advocating permanent war (or any war) in the Middle East is absurd. Our leaders are too involved in increasing their stock profits or pleasing their base(who gave them money)to worry about real problems..
21
Thank you Mr Friedman for highlighting these inevitable trends. OK, who if anyone will pose pertinent questions to our presidential candidates and not leet them wriggle off the hook?
18
Yes, Tom, pick out the groups that cater to the intellectually weak as an example. Facebook are for the losers who truly think posting about their boil being lanced is of interest to their 5,000 close and personal "friends" -- or for moronic politicians who literally buy follows (note to Hillary, you have Sidney, be happy....) so Markie Mark can collate your data and sell it to businesses and governments, but gosh you so admire Ed Snowden for his stands against the NSA for doing much less than Facebook; Uber is for risk takers too tired of the stench of professional taxi drivers, and buying a car tire from eBay or its Chinese cousin anmed afetr a Middle eastern character, Alibaba, is a great way to understand how Jabba the Hut got so fat. How about focusing on biotechnology which is literally changing the world and requires creative and highly skilled workers -- whcih we thankfully can get from Asia and Europe because our kids need to learn about the value of a Hyphen-Ethnicity and Gender Poetry...and get an A because Mom threatened to sue the school? How about the trend in craft-oriented products, which takes passion and grit, like beer, and furniture, etc. Tom, you are a Luddite...as with many lie you, you see the glass empty, not even half full. Facebook and Uber are flash in the pan toys for the bored...can you say MySpace?
19
Stay away from the fainting couch, Tom. Your job is secure until AI takes over.
4
The article and the comments are excellent. Not much to add, except that our troubles boil down to two things: climate change and income inequality. These are to a great extent interrelated, as the oil companies bear primary responsibility for the first by blocking any exploration of other energy sources, and some degree of responsibility for the second, as the means of energy is now the basis of all economic development.
The world of disorder is certainly troubling, and if Jeb Bush is elected President, as I think he will be, we will have much the same atavistic approach to it as we saw in his forebears- guns and troops, no doubt with the same results.
But the problems posed by the world of disorder are to some degree imposed by the world of order; and climate change and income inequality are the two major poisons the world of order is imposing. In these two problems lie the key to a better world. On the other hand, if they are left unaddressed, as they are at the moment, the result will be catastrophic.
The world of disorder is certainly troubling, and if Jeb Bush is elected President, as I think he will be, we will have much the same atavistic approach to it as we saw in his forebears- guns and troops, no doubt with the same results.
But the problems posed by the world of disorder are to some degree imposed by the world of order; and climate change and income inequality are the two major poisons the world of order is imposing. In these two problems lie the key to a better world. On the other hand, if they are left unaddressed, as they are at the moment, the result will be catastrophic.
23
Tell us something we don't already know!
6
Uber, Alibaba, etc. produce nothing tangible, but Apple does not make its products either -- just some concepts to be turned into tangle things in China and other manufacturing bases.
8
I'm not scared of jobs being taken over by machines, I think that's good thing in most cases. But, we'll need a stronger commitment to one another so all citizens have a chance at a good and decent job. Maybe shorter work-hours during the day and week. To deal with this, maybe more affordable housing that the government helps create (corporate landlords are becoming a vast enemy to our standard of living). And, of course, wage-scales must become more equitable.
Candidates avoid major issues because we do. And if we do happen to discuss them, we rarely follow that with any action. The earth heats, the poverty and near-poverty grows, the plutocracy rages on. We act as if spectator and victim. But it is We the People who forge this path, and it is us who shall have to face the future clear-eyed and loving towards all our fellow, spiritual creatures.
Candidates avoid major issues because we do. And if we do happen to discuss them, we rarely follow that with any action. The earth heats, the poverty and near-poverty grows, the plutocracy rages on. We act as if spectator and victim. But it is We the People who forge this path, and it is us who shall have to face the future clear-eyed and loving towards all our fellow, spiritual creatures.
18
Like the mad scientist in Frankenstein, Thomas Friedman laments his creation--a clueless, lazy, apathetic and hypocritical Obama lapdog news media that created the divided, confused, disillusioned electorate and political climate we have today.
5
Right - it is all Obama's fault - not the congress or senate that has been befuddled and lazy for so long, not the republicans that refuse to recognized
climate change or infrastructure (which would create many jobs) and especially for the bush administration that created ISIS. Not the republicans and oil, not the low income wage..... I could go on and on - there is a long list of 'blame' that is not on Obama. I disagree with some of his positions but refuse to blame him for all the problems.
climate change or infrastructure (which would create many jobs) and especially for the bush administration that created ISIS. Not the republicans and oil, not the low income wage..... I could go on and on - there is a long list of 'blame' that is not on Obama. I disagree with some of his positions but refuse to blame him for all the problems.
43
Clueless, lazy, hypocritical media? Surely you are confusing Friedman with Fox (Limbaugh/Koch Bros. lapdog) News (sic). BTW Dr. Frankenstein was the mad scientist.
25
For rich countries in Europe, it is much less expensive to fund a rebuild project in Libya than to build settlements for refugees.
4
The rich became rich in Europe on the back of their colonies and conquests.
9
Its definitely time for a first contact with beings from another planet. Maybe THAT would unite the human race to work on US.
8
People don't take good advice from wiser people. Why do you think they would take any from space-aliens?
15
Mr. Friedman: It doesn't take a Pulitzer prize winner, a Nobel winner, the best code writer in the world, the best group of physicists, economists, business or labor leaders to know what is going on. It is simple greed. As Deep Throat said to Woodward or Bernstein, "Follow the money."
43
What was the first paraphrase of Trotsky?
11
You do not have to look elsewhere to see the battle between order and disorder; it's right here at home. If we do not seem to be coping well with change or dealing with the future, it's because we have one major political party that rejects one of the most powerful tools humans have developed to bring order to a world of challenges: government.
You could add to your list of proponents of Nothing the Movement Conservatives of the Republican Party. We have literally decades of hard evidence that their ideology has no content. It fails to deliver every time - and their response is always "We didn't do it hard enough, long enough, etc."
Conservatives reject science when it is inconvenient for their beliefs; they rewrite or ignore history when it doesn't fit their narrative; they refuse to invest in the future because their eyes are fixed firmly on a past that never was instead of the reality right in front of them. They take responsibility for nothing, learn nothing, and double-down when challenged.
And they get away with because of a media that can't seem to make critical distinctions. To tar Bernie Sanders by linking him to Rand Paul as both being ideologues ignores the record of Sanders who has been consistent and coherent for decades, while Paul can't go five minutes without contradicting himself.
You could add to your list of proponents of Nothing the Movement Conservatives of the Republican Party. We have literally decades of hard evidence that their ideology has no content. It fails to deliver every time - and their response is always "We didn't do it hard enough, long enough, etc."
Conservatives reject science when it is inconvenient for their beliefs; they rewrite or ignore history when it doesn't fit their narrative; they refuse to invest in the future because their eyes are fixed firmly on a past that never was instead of the reality right in front of them. They take responsibility for nothing, learn nothing, and double-down when challenged.
And they get away with because of a media that can't seem to make critical distinctions. To tar Bernie Sanders by linking him to Rand Paul as both being ideologues ignores the record of Sanders who has been consistent and coherent for decades, while Paul can't go five minutes without contradicting himself.
87
As stimulating as his Flat Earth idea.
I would just like to add the cornerstone to the thought: pleasure is from processing, not from owning, controlling, dominating, and other forms of animal pleasures. The full impact, the extreme of this idea is human pleasure palaces exist in stimulating the deep pleasure of generating human biological success. Imagine mass marketing the mindsets of gurus (epic religious thinkers) and then turning all these human processors on to calculate future a feature general nirvana. The payment is in the activity, the process itself and not in any of the previous lower animal pleasures.
I would just like to add the cornerstone to the thought: pleasure is from processing, not from owning, controlling, dominating, and other forms of animal pleasures. The full impact, the extreme of this idea is human pleasure palaces exist in stimulating the deep pleasure of generating human biological success. Imagine mass marketing the mindsets of gurus (epic religious thinkers) and then turning all these human processors on to calculate future a feature general nirvana. The payment is in the activity, the process itself and not in any of the previous lower animal pleasures.
1
Sure, the future will have great differences from the present-- just as the past was different. But the future will also have great similarities just as did the past. Exaggerating the one or the other can present striking visions. There is a lot of violence, and there is a lot of peace and safety. Lots of immigrants, lots of people staying put. Lots of need and lots of excess. We can look for holisitc solutions or buckle down to tackle challenges as they arise. Some things are obvious -- have fewer children, use fewer fossil fuels, enjoy each other rather than engage in conspicuous consumption, read a book, take a course, plant your garden, finance a small business in a poor neighborhood here or abroad, join with others to find common solutions, and don't believe in things that hold us back from doing all of these.
16
Would this be considered gallows humor?
I have such a lack on interest in all of the supposed candidates actually becoming president that the World of Disorder has a certain appeal. If we didn't have any leader, I would no longer have to look upon them with such pity.
I have such a lack on interest in all of the supposed candidates actually becoming president that the World of Disorder has a certain appeal. If we didn't have any leader, I would no longer have to look upon them with such pity.
9
We are at the starting gate for the more enormous change in world history. It will undermine governments by putting free will in the hands of all the people. The Arab Spring was the springboard. It failed because of the military power of those in power. But it is only a matter of time and anarchy before the chaos ends in true democracy. It might be decades, but it WILL happen. Governments, of which the United States has presented the most free, most prosperous and the most fair of any, ever, has been captured -- as feared by the Authors of the U. S. Constitution -- by the so-called Progressive Democrats. They have gained and retain their power by legislatively supporting factions that finance their party, buying factions that vote Democratic and for some truly unknown reason (to me) owns the media megaphone of the esteemed New York Times and the alphabet of far-left propaganda: NBC ABC CBS PBS CNN MSNBC. Ordinary voters have little access to the truth that presents both sides, left and right. But it matters not, most of the bureaucracy established to keep us in place from the educational establishment to the entertainment industry will fall when people discover they don't need anyone telling them what to do, what to say and what to think. Yes for sure millions will die to get there, but it will come. And it will be closer to the progressive fantasy of utopia. But it will not be with the Harvard Elites or military men running the show.
http://www.periodictablet.com
http://www.periodictablet.com
4
Or mad MAX.
4
Ted, In case you didn't know the US Constitution was written by the progressive Democrats of that era. Hamilton, Adams, Madison, Washington were as progressive and as liberal as any politician in their day. The Constitutional Convention was also an unelected body of slave holders, lawyers, military men, and jingoists.
11
The sine qua non of a healthy society is recognition that the economy is not a stand-alone construct, independent of the human context in which it pursues its ends. The artificial separation of economics from community is the cancer that will kill us all.
20
In the words of Lindsey Graham, "The World is falling apart!"
1
This writer is deeply worried about the facts and forecasts that Tom Friedman brings forward in yet another excellent column. As I struggle at the super markets to find a human available to ring up my groceries, I ponder a new unemployment tax on all US businesses and business people. It would be a federal tax that would go up when unemployment rises over 5%, or an appropriate number, and keep rising with the escalation of unemployment. It would fall, as unemployment falls, reaching zero at about 5%. The proceeds would go into federally funded jobs programs, preferably on fixing infrastructure, making building more energy efficient, and such identified positives as more day care and pre-school for the poor. Such a system would be problematic, if we didn't also seal our borders to illegal immigrants, and abolish the amendment that says any illegal born here is automatically a citizen. My supermarket would then have to weigh the value of more robotic check out stations, against the fact that there taxes will rise if they contribute to their society's unemployment numbers.
8
A useful comparison 'world of order' and 'world of disorder'.
Acemoglu and Robinson have given us a similarly useful way of thinking about failed states; that they have 'extractive' rather than 'inclusive' economic and political institutions.
I think that the West should support the UN in creating oil-spots of order, in countries where the kleptocracy has got particularly outrageous. such countries could be returned to local, democratic governance once their Gini coefficients reached an acceptable level.
These oil spots of stability would draw in economic migrants from surrounding areas, and end up as regional powerhouses. Zimbabwe gets my vote as the first 'UN Mandate'. After 35 years, Mugabe's mandate has expired.
Acemoglu and Robinson have given us a similarly useful way of thinking about failed states; that they have 'extractive' rather than 'inclusive' economic and political institutions.
I think that the West should support the UN in creating oil-spots of order, in countries where the kleptocracy has got particularly outrageous. such countries could be returned to local, democratic governance once their Gini coefficients reached an acceptable level.
These oil spots of stability would draw in economic migrants from surrounding areas, and end up as regional powerhouses. Zimbabwe gets my vote as the first 'UN Mandate'. After 35 years, Mugabe's mandate has expired.
3
"But here’s the rub: We don’t know what to do." I disagree. Who is we? We are "we the people", not the leaders acting alone. Now, with tools like the internet, we can come together and pool our ideas and our energies to work on the problems we are stuck with.
And I believe that we need leaders who will unite us, rather than divide us. "United, we stand. Divided we fall." My own sense is that Hillary Clinton, as the first woman president of the United States, would be a uniter, rather than a divider.
And I believe that we need leaders who will unite us, rather than divide us. "United, we stand. Divided we fall." My own sense is that Hillary Clinton, as the first woman president of the United States, would be a uniter, rather than a divider.
10
The world has more people than it needs or knows what to do with, and will soon have machines (robots) to replace many of them. The future direction of the world will be determined by a bunch of powerful people and corporations competing to make money, not by dictators and not by the rational planning of bureaucrats, technocrats, or philosopher-kings.
The world is entering a stage that is explored best by science fiction (think William Gibson), and none of our leaders are at home in or intrigued by the genre. The only politicians who come close to thinking big enough are libertarians, and they are hopelessly unrealistic because community is invisible to them.
The world is entering a stage that is explored best by science fiction (think William Gibson), and none of our leaders are at home in or intrigued by the genre. The only politicians who come close to thinking big enough are libertarians, and they are hopelessly unrealistic because community is invisible to them.
19
Fascinating. All I can think to contribute at this point is a quote from a song written by Graham Nash, of Crosby, Stills & Nash: Teach your children well.
9
"We don’t know what to do. We used to rely on empires, colonizers and dictators to control a lot of these places, but we’re now in a post-imperial, post-colonial and, in many places, post-autocratic age. No one wants to touch these disorderly zones because all you win is a bill. And most are incapable of democratic self-governance."
As currently organized, we are incapable of democratic self-governance too. I know what to do. The first problem is size; break up the United States into 6 allied countries of equal population, each of which will be of a size capable of democratic self-governance. The second problem is civics; provide the people with a complete education that emphasizes that government is everything we must do together because we can't do it apart. The third problem is inequality; expand the conception of public goods beyond basic education and physical security to include health care, housing, advanced education, basic food and clothing, retirement security and a job. Tax wealth not income. The fourth problem is tribalism; switch to a parliamentary system that provides proportional representation for all and rewards moderation and coalition-building. The fifth problem is beggar-thy-neighborism. Dramatically reduce the role of state gov't, equalize tax regimes and block race-to-the-bottom competition between American locales.
You're welcome.
As currently organized, we are incapable of democratic self-governance too. I know what to do. The first problem is size; break up the United States into 6 allied countries of equal population, each of which will be of a size capable of democratic self-governance. The second problem is civics; provide the people with a complete education that emphasizes that government is everything we must do together because we can't do it apart. The third problem is inequality; expand the conception of public goods beyond basic education and physical security to include health care, housing, advanced education, basic food and clothing, retirement security and a job. Tax wealth not income. The fourth problem is tribalism; switch to a parliamentary system that provides proportional representation for all and rewards moderation and coalition-building. The fifth problem is beggar-thy-neighborism. Dramatically reduce the role of state gov't, equalize tax regimes and block race-to-the-bottom competition between American locales.
You're welcome.
20
that is one brilliant piece of work. the best and most sensible suggestion i have come across in a very long time. the only alteration i would make would be to carve up the states into eight independent political entities which would average out at roughly 40million folks a piece. this idea of having superpowers on this tiny planet is so nineteenth/ twentieth century.
2
This was the case, once, once upon a time in America, before it was America. A very accurate description of Native American (or, if you prefer the pre-politically correct term, Indian) culture.
What we have now are the improvements wrought by the white man. Lucky us.
What we have now are the improvements wrought by the white man. Lucky us.
2
So we keep multinationals and TBTF banks while reducing the size of government?
No thanks.
I can still vote, organize, petition, protest and if enough people agree with me or I with them then change can result.
I suggest we try electing statesmen and women that want to represent the people and not the 1% or .1%, outlaw Citizens United, end fractional reserve based lending by private banks, break up multinationals for their oligopolistic practices, enable unions to organize by repealing large swaths of Taft-Hartley, and elect Bernie Sanders for president.
No thanks.
I can still vote, organize, petition, protest and if enough people agree with me or I with them then change can result.
I suggest we try electing statesmen and women that want to represent the people and not the 1% or .1%, outlaw Citizens United, end fractional reserve based lending by private banks, break up multinationals for their oligopolistic practices, enable unions to organize by repealing large swaths of Taft-Hartley, and elect Bernie Sanders for president.
5
Exciting time for innovators and entrepreneurs, scary times for the rest of us. Politicians generally don't take sides until an issue tilts one way or another. But the major trends that Thomas Friedman highlights are beyond many of us. We are slow to adapt new technologies and trends, late in changing our skills and vitas, and last-in investors to the new ideas and delivery systems in the market place. Politicians respond more to the voters (though decreasingly so) than to the trends, and the "big" money in politics is not necessarily at the front of the curve -- more likely focused on preserving the remnants of the old order. How often has Thomas Friedman written about investing in infrastructure, in the internet, in education and in research and in innovation, to only sound like a voice in the woods rather than the harbinger of change? Entrenched interests still determine the political agenda, while others slowly chip away out a new economy in the face of regulatory resistance. Saw what you will about President Obama, he is one of the few to speak about a future that is not a return to the past. Unfortunately his main collaborators in government more closely represent the three monkeys covering their eyes, ears and mouths. Good luck to that.
3
Robots, sensors, thinking machines and augmented humans are the answer. These things will lower the cost of "fixing" - or at least controlling, the World of Disorder.
Just as the UK used biplanes against Iraqi insurgents in the 1920s (Imperial Policing), and we use drones against the fanatics in NW Pakistan, we'll continue to apply tech to control the cost of bringing some semblance of order to these parts of the world. Food distribution kiosks, healthcare kiosks, telemedicine apps driven by Watson, and pervasive monitoring of the populations could be added to whatever minimum funny money income is provided to the citizens of these places in order to give them some trading access with us and for each other.
Time and tech will fix this. That's what our office seekers understand. There's just no way the World of Disorder is going to overwhelm us. The Ostrogoths, Huns, Muslims, and Soviets did real damage in the past, and were a real threat, but their modern day descendants are a pretty sorry lot. About the only thing they have going for them now is our own post-modern capacity to have sympathy for their plight, and forgive them and be patient with them and extend them a helping hand that even 50 years ago would have been unthinkable.
If they had more knowledge of history, they'd get this. Our grandfathers wouldn't have thought twice about bombing hundreds of square miles into oblivion, rights for criminals, and enforcing stringent immigration laws.
Just as the UK used biplanes against Iraqi insurgents in the 1920s (Imperial Policing), and we use drones against the fanatics in NW Pakistan, we'll continue to apply tech to control the cost of bringing some semblance of order to these parts of the world. Food distribution kiosks, healthcare kiosks, telemedicine apps driven by Watson, and pervasive monitoring of the populations could be added to whatever minimum funny money income is provided to the citizens of these places in order to give them some trading access with us and for each other.
Time and tech will fix this. That's what our office seekers understand. There's just no way the World of Disorder is going to overwhelm us. The Ostrogoths, Huns, Muslims, and Soviets did real damage in the past, and were a real threat, but their modern day descendants are a pretty sorry lot. About the only thing they have going for them now is our own post-modern capacity to have sympathy for their plight, and forgive them and be patient with them and extend them a helping hand that even 50 years ago would have been unthinkable.
If they had more knowledge of history, they'd get this. Our grandfathers wouldn't have thought twice about bombing hundreds of square miles into oblivion, rights for criminals, and enforcing stringent immigration laws.
2
It should be no surprise that in a world that values companies that provide services and platforms but have no original content, inventory or real estate (Facebook, Uber, Airbnb, etc) that our candidates for president are equally hollow.
In a time when we need great and bold inventions - medical, space exploration, saving our planet from ourselves - we get Facebook. We get more technology so we can be more self absorbed ... and then we are shocked that our candidates reflect that shallowness.
Sadly, democracies and capitalist societies get exact what they want and deserve. We have the candidates we deserve.
In a time when we need great and bold inventions - medical, space exploration, saving our planet from ourselves - we get Facebook. We get more technology so we can be more self absorbed ... and then we are shocked that our candidates reflect that shallowness.
Sadly, democracies and capitalist societies get exact what they want and deserve. We have the candidates we deserve.
120
I beg to differ. We, the people, do not deserve this. The game is rigged. We can't win because we can't defeat the big bucks, we can't fight "creative destruction," and what Tom refers to as "being worth owning," is increasingly beyond us.
What is worth owning? Is it a slice of a company that essentially markets ephemera?
No. What's worth owning is what has always been worth owning - food, clothing, shelter, a safe, thriving environment, decent government, healthy animals and plants, books, art, a good education, good, challenging work.
What's happened, though, is we've all been sold down the river by the rich, the powerful; even SCOTUS, entrusted with safeguarding the law, has caved. This was pretty obvious in Bush v Gore. We, the People, didn't elect George W Bush but we got him. We didn't vote for Citizens United. We didn't vote for Grover Norquist. We didn't vote for Karl Rove, nor for Hobby Lobby.
The people are way more progressive than the exploiters who "govern" us.
Give the people some credit and stop with the platitudes already. We have been had by the intersection of corporate and political power, which is generally called, "fascism," only people are busy on the tube and the 'net calling it "freedom," thus snowing enough Americans - a minority, true - but enough to skew the whole works.
Even without that, however, the romance with hi-tech threatens the whole apple cart and the environment is dying.
We didn't vote for this.
What is worth owning? Is it a slice of a company that essentially markets ephemera?
No. What's worth owning is what has always been worth owning - food, clothing, shelter, a safe, thriving environment, decent government, healthy animals and plants, books, art, a good education, good, challenging work.
What's happened, though, is we've all been sold down the river by the rich, the powerful; even SCOTUS, entrusted with safeguarding the law, has caved. This was pretty obvious in Bush v Gore. We, the People, didn't elect George W Bush but we got him. We didn't vote for Citizens United. We didn't vote for Grover Norquist. We didn't vote for Karl Rove, nor for Hobby Lobby.
The people are way more progressive than the exploiters who "govern" us.
Give the people some credit and stop with the platitudes already. We have been had by the intersection of corporate and political power, which is generally called, "fascism," only people are busy on the tube and the 'net calling it "freedom," thus snowing enough Americans - a minority, true - but enough to skew the whole works.
Even without that, however, the romance with hi-tech threatens the whole apple cart and the environment is dying.
We didn't vote for this.
5
I'd like to ask all of the candidates, of all political parties, if their children will be signing up to join the military services. My guess is "NO".
But the question needs to be asked, and quite forcefully. Because the people running are the ones who start wars. And it is the mostly people at the bottom of the social strata who fight them, and live with the consequences for the rest of their lives.
But the question needs to be asked, and quite forcefully. Because the people running are the ones who start wars. And it is the mostly people at the bottom of the social strata who fight them, and live with the consequences for the rest of their lives.
29
If you are looking for a candidate who is taking clear positions,
answers difficult look at Bernie Sanders. If he is taken seriously by
columnists such as Friedman his views will be seen as what is needed for the problems addressed in this column.
Sanders stands for:
not taking corporate money, not make $200,000 speeches, not appointing Wall Street cronies and corporate lobbyists.
We need such a president who will represent the 99%, who will address climate change in a bold way, who will use the bully pulpit to help reverse Citizens United.
Our country needs a president who supports strengthening financial regulation and breaking up the big banks, who will rewrite our disastrous trade agreements and put a nail in the coffin of the TPP, who will strengthen public education (not turn it into a for-profit industry), who supports cracking down on offshore tax shelters, returning to progressive taxation and eliminating corporate tax loopholes.
Sanders is a potential president who will help to strengthen union, who believes in pay equity for women, who will make a significant investment in our crumbling infrastructure.
A Sanders/Warren ticket on the Democrat side in the next election would
be unbeatable.
answers difficult look at Bernie Sanders. If he is taken seriously by
columnists such as Friedman his views will be seen as what is needed for the problems addressed in this column.
Sanders stands for:
not taking corporate money, not make $200,000 speeches, not appointing Wall Street cronies and corporate lobbyists.
We need such a president who will represent the 99%, who will address climate change in a bold way, who will use the bully pulpit to help reverse Citizens United.
Our country needs a president who supports strengthening financial regulation and breaking up the big banks, who will rewrite our disastrous trade agreements and put a nail in the coffin of the TPP, who will strengthen public education (not turn it into a for-profit industry), who supports cracking down on offshore tax shelters, returning to progressive taxation and eliminating corporate tax loopholes.
Sanders is a potential president who will help to strengthen union, who believes in pay equity for women, who will make a significant investment in our crumbling infrastructure.
A Sanders/Warren ticket on the Democrat side in the next election would
be unbeatable.
46
Your headline magnificently describes the American political process. Saves me a lot of reading, too.......
1
To Mrsfenwick in Florida...perhaps "full time jobs with job security and benefits" will never exist again in the future. Have you thought of that? We are seeing the decline of such jobs and many people mourn that as you do. But this sea of change that is rushing us into the future may permanently do away with these types of jobs. After all, so much of what humans have done in the past several thousand years (and related technologies) is relegated to the past only, never to be done again or even in the same way. Mourn all you want, but your thinking may be on the losing side of history. And the vast majority of Americans and their politicians just keep their heads in the sand......That's what I mourn.
10
"Complexity is becoming free"? Great Friedman buzz phrase, but I still pay for all these services.
3
The financial industry was invented to distribute ownership of the means of production, essential to the emergence of a "middle class".
Under the supervision of the superficial, it has been left to wealth-concentrators who use it for self-aggrandizement.
Under the supervision of the superficial, it has been left to wealth-concentrators who use it for self-aggrandizement.
10
What if the order has even worse long term consequences than the disorder does? Can that still rightly be called an order?
5
Chancellor Otto von Bismarck said "Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable - the art of the next best."
In our fluid world, we need more compromisers and fewer ideologues as leaders. The art of compromise is unfortunately being shunned by many politicians. Humans succeed most when they co-operate with each other.
In our fluid world, we need more compromisers and fewer ideologues as leaders. The art of compromise is unfortunately being shunned by many politicians. Humans succeed most when they co-operate with each other.
15
The real energy and grease that keeps all the world spinning is money and power. Since the machines will get all the jobs in the near future and beyond, how will anyone have any revenue stream to keep the billionaire class afloat? We peons barely have two nickels to rub together. So the dystopia continues as entertainment for now. Eventually there will be no money, only credits that follow us around to keep up the pretense of an economy.
Eventuality is just around the corner to what end? A reckoning is all that could be imagined as dreams turn into nightmares for 80% of the people on planet Earth. The wealth and political class of today hasn't been able to climb out of the ruins of the Roman Empire. Until that really changes we will continue on the Carl Sagan course of self annihilation. I'm sure the robots won't care.
Eventuality is just around the corner to what end? A reckoning is all that could be imagined as dreams turn into nightmares for 80% of the people on planet Earth. The wealth and political class of today hasn't been able to climb out of the ruins of the Roman Empire. Until that really changes we will continue on the Carl Sagan course of self annihilation. I'm sure the robots won't care.
8
Until now, we've had to control "perception" for either monetary gain, political win, crises and rescue, celebrity. Until now the focus was not on survival. Until now if we had an enemy motivating us to survive, we could identify it. The "Axis of Evil" is the perfect example of our unexercised accurate perception of Reality. A shadow enemy at best. The perfect example of wrong perception squandering resources and hundreds of thousands of human lives in the name of what we were not trained to see. Only now, our very existence is at stake. Our group survival as a species. Getting correct information is not our problem. Naming the tasks, eliminating distractions, and firmly telling the class clowns to shut up and sit down while the rest of us get to work is the only answer. We don't have time for an election. Those days are long gone.
THe working example now is we are all off duty, the first on the scene of a horrible accident and lives depend on us. It's a test of character and courage. Instead of raising money for poor kids, we pay parents a living wage. Instead of making electric cars poor people can't afford, we build trains. Instead of prisons we flush out the very brightest from every neighborhood and educate.
The wrong people are being left behind.
There is no institution yet in America for this kind of correction. It used to be voting. But then there came Citizens United. One Target. A few brave leaders.Now.Right Now.
THe working example now is we are all off duty, the first on the scene of a horrible accident and lives depend on us. It's a test of character and courage. Instead of raising money for poor kids, we pay parents a living wage. Instead of making electric cars poor people can't afford, we build trains. Instead of prisons we flush out the very brightest from every neighborhood and educate.
The wrong people are being left behind.
There is no institution yet in America for this kind of correction. It used to be voting. But then there came Citizens United. One Target. A few brave leaders.Now.Right Now.
10
Does it really matter if serious candidates for the presidency (there's are maybe two, if you include Sanders) engage the public with these issues? The entire election process is a game, without integrity. Why give the deranged right wing media any fodder? We can only hope that our candidates understand these huge global issues and are prepared to start acting to solve them once they're elected.
5
If 47 percent of American jobs are at risk of replacement by technology - and presumably that figure is only going to rise over time - then we need to start thinking about other ways besides jobs to generate personal income. If jobs are no longer available to most people to generate personal income, and if robots and computer programs become the primary means of generating wealth, then distribution of the collective wealth will have to replace work as the source of personal income.
Scary concept, I know. But think about it - on these assumptions, there is no other way. As technology replaces jobs, we either all become members of a new leisure class or the few who own technology run out of customers among the many who have no income.
politicsbyeccehomo.wordpress.com
Scary concept, I know. But think about it - on these assumptions, there is no other way. As technology replaces jobs, we either all become members of a new leisure class or the few who own technology run out of customers among the many who have no income.
politicsbyeccehomo.wordpress.com
17
Thank you Thom for shedding light on the slow moving crises that lurk in the shadows. By nature humans tend to evaluate the issues you have highlighted as being static when they are anything but. As time progresses, the world population will continue to increase at a geometric rate as sea levels rise (thereby decreasing the land available to support humans and other land based species). These twin crises will, in turn, lead to a larger World of Disorder as even larger immigrant populaces seek shelter and the chance for a "good life" in the World of Order.
6
It is particularly annoying when Friedman talks about companies in the so-called "sharing economy" because he talks as though it is the responsibility of people to adapt themselves to technology and its effect on the economy rather than the other way around. Working for companies like Uber is not a substitute for a full-time job with job security and benefits. Working for companies like Uber is something people turn to because they can't get real jobs. So-called "thought leaders" like Friedman have no idea how to bring back real jobs, so they never talk about that.
In fairness, Friedman is not really the "leader" of anything, and it's not up to him to figure out how to solve our problems. It's a pity that the people who do have that responsibility are no better at it than he is. He should stop talking about matters he doesn't understand. They should retire from public life because they have no solutions to offer us.
In fairness, Friedman is not really the "leader" of anything, and it's not up to him to figure out how to solve our problems. It's a pity that the people who do have that responsibility are no better at it than he is. He should stop talking about matters he doesn't understand. They should retire from public life because they have no solutions to offer us.
11
I think one of the points here is that "real jobs" as you refer to them are going extinct - there will be no bringing them back. So far, the birth of the sharing economy is the only response we have seen to this.
The only people I'm aware of who have spent any time thinking about this are Sci-Fi authors and futurists. Certainly not politicians who mainly go about the work of extending the status quo.
The only people I'm aware of who have spent any time thinking about this are Sci-Fi authors and futurists. Certainly not politicians who mainly go about the work of extending the status quo.
2
In what way is driving for Uber not a "real job?"
1
The New Age of Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, and smart machines, signals our enormous leap out of the industrial age of working for money, raising children, and 200 years of driving ourselves around on horses and in cars.
In The New Age beginning 2020, cars drive themselves, work is done by robots, artificial intelligence makes most of the time-consuming activities unnecessary, and money is free. We need consumers to drive the society forward. When 80% of work is done by drones, the 80% of the workforce left idle means that each person, from the newborn baby to the oldest person on earth becomes more important, and influential by doing these two things:
1. Consume goods and services with free money regularly deposited in your account by the US Treasury so that you can do your job, consume goods and services to drive the economy and the culture forward, and what is consumed is the democratic force that gives direction to what is produced. The consumer rules.
2. Live forever: this is the great new quest after industrialization is conquered by machines. Longevity, and experimenting to find out what humans are capable of doing when they are free to do their best for theselves. The meaning of success in the New Age is in consuming the right information, the right food, the right influences on you so that you do excell beyond all former human limitations, and live forever.
Welcome to the NEW AGE. If you are successful you never have to leave.
[email protected]
In The New Age beginning 2020, cars drive themselves, work is done by robots, artificial intelligence makes most of the time-consuming activities unnecessary, and money is free. We need consumers to drive the society forward. When 80% of work is done by drones, the 80% of the workforce left idle means that each person, from the newborn baby to the oldest person on earth becomes more important, and influential by doing these two things:
1. Consume goods and services with free money regularly deposited in your account by the US Treasury so that you can do your job, consume goods and services to drive the economy and the culture forward, and what is consumed is the democratic force that gives direction to what is produced. The consumer rules.
2. Live forever: this is the great new quest after industrialization is conquered by machines. Longevity, and experimenting to find out what humans are capable of doing when they are free to do their best for theselves. The meaning of success in the New Age is in consuming the right information, the right food, the right influences on you so that you do excell beyond all former human limitations, and live forever.
Welcome to the NEW AGE. If you are successful you never have to leave.
[email protected]
3
The effort to cheat death will be the end of the human race.
7
Agreed. And a good reason to have an aged bourbon.
I think you are slowly but surely writing a history of the things we ignored that will ultimately lead to civilizational collapses of the kind Jared Diamond described in his book"Collapse"
The decline will come (for most) even in the most "orderly' nations when ,as in America, the political leadership is no better qualified to lead than the average citizen.
So the rabble will get exactly what they asked (voted) for - emotionally empty promises and vacuous offerings from empty headed underqualified populists!
The decline will come (for most) even in the most "orderly' nations when ,as in America, the political leadership is no better qualified to lead than the average citizen.
So the rabble will get exactly what they asked (voted) for - emotionally empty promises and vacuous offerings from empty headed underqualified populists!
7
Agreed that we're facing disorder all over the world. Is the solution for the US to embark on massive drone attacks on all those we deem responsible for disorder? How is that working in the Middle East? Perhaps our contribution to peaceful order should start with our own commitment to stop intervening in conflicts that have nothing to do with our own national security.
5
Now is this really such a great surprise? Aside from Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders, the only candidates so far who are really running on their own principles (including the very laudable idea of trying to reverse this country's slide to a police state), the rest are just awaiting their orders from their corporate financial overseers. In all fairness, though, as they start to prepare for the inevitable overwhelming dose of broadcast airwave pollution they'll be imposing on the voting public, it can't be denied that they, too, are running on principal. With interest.
Contrast this Punch-and-Judy puppet show with the recent British election, in which candidates can't raise huge war chests and actually have to go out amongst the citizenry and face real (as opposed to scripted 'debate') questions. And weep for our nation of Citizens (dis)United.
Contrast this Punch-and-Judy puppet show with the recent British election, in which candidates can't raise huge war chests and actually have to go out amongst the citizenry and face real (as opposed to scripted 'debate') questions. And weep for our nation of Citizens (dis)United.
7
"Hillary Clinton won’t take a clear stand on two big issues she helped to negotiate as secretary of state: the free-trade deal with Pacific nations and the nuclear deal with Iran."
With both of these issues very much on the front burner, and with the election so far in the future, I would consider it _inappropriate_ for former Secretary Clinton to comment or take a public stance on them, most particularly because she was a party to the negotiations, and she may have since departed from the Obama administration's line. Although I would expect any of her comments to be more thoughtful (and perhaps productive) than those of Sen. Cotton and Speaker Boehner, it would be a transgression of the same type, if not of degree.
With both of these issues very much on the front burner, and with the election so far in the future, I would consider it _inappropriate_ for former Secretary Clinton to comment or take a public stance on them, most particularly because she was a party to the negotiations, and she may have since departed from the Obama administration's line. Although I would expect any of her comments to be more thoughtful (and perhaps productive) than those of Sen. Cotton and Speaker Boehner, it would be a transgression of the same type, if not of degree.
5
How can anyone be for or against the trade deal when it's shrouded in such secrecy? Warren has simply said, show me the deal. What's telling is that Hillary is not even outraged about its secrecy. Maybe her donors like the deal, and she knows it, so she can't feign any Warren-like outrage.
5
The United States, the world's greatest producer of endless political campaigns and related spending, produces no relevant issues, ideas, or debates.
11
That's because some folks are getting very rich with things being just as they are. Just follow the money and that will take you to the real story behind the "front" story. Also, people want "good" systems, solutions and policies without being "good" themselves. We're getting exactly what we deserve. Incompetent citizens in the ways of democracy always demand and receive incompetent leaders.
3
Not sure how this applies, but I have been struck by the fact that Economic supply & demand theories (as taught in the '70s) relied on the assumption of "perfect information" - that everyone knew the price and availability of everything, thus would rationally choose the best value. That didn't exist then, but (nearly) does now, with the advent of the internet. That seems important. Surely someone smarter than me has thought this through...
1
How ironic that what promises to be the most costly election campaign ever--with most money flowing to the media--also may be largely devoid of ideas or principles clearly stated and staunchly held. Is this how unlimited contributions will lead to more "speech?"
13
We must recognize that there is no post-environment age...not many jobs left but so much work that needs to be done: planting trees, repairing/replacing/building infrastructure, actually implementing nuclear waste storage, containing Fukushima meltdown (and yes, this is everybody's problem), reducing greenhouse gases, stewardship of resources instead of plunder, protecting our precious water, bringing small farms back, urban farming, public education, family planning...the list is endless. And not mentioned by politicians.
Politicians to the left of me, clowns to the right...I'm having a lot of trouble telling the difference anymore.
Politicians to the left of me, clowns to the right...I'm having a lot of trouble telling the difference anymore.
16
There is room to the left of you? Not much, based on your comments. Also, I think the clowns section begins with your seat.....
2
Diane Butler's comments may seem "left" to you. They seem rational to me.
2
The problem is that voters don't seem to care or even be aware of the issues raised in Mr. Friedman's piece. We'll hear a whole lot about Benghazi, bakers forced to make cakes for same-sex weddings, and the evils of Obamacare than we will about moving our nation into the 21st century.
27
I agree with Freeman’s analysis that many major new tech companies have no substance. Is he also circuitously saying almost all of the current Presidential candidates have no substance? His overview of how technology is eliminating jobs for human workers is in my opinion less important than greed. A brief summary on my greed issue is
Yesteryear’s robber industrialized the U.S. that provided the resources that enabled us to end WW1 and win WW2. Today’s U.S. CEOs and financiers are making billions of dollars by de-industrializing the U.S. and moving these jobs overseas with significantly lower labor costs. Most of their ‘earnings’ came from the lower living standards of today’s working age people. To add insult to injury, most of this wealth is taxed at a rate considerable lower than almost all other Americans excepting those forced to take government help. When Social Security, Medicare, sales taxes, and predatory “taxes” on the poor are added, this income inequality is greatly magnified.
Yesteryear’s robber industrialized the U.S. that provided the resources that enabled us to end WW1 and win WW2. Today’s U.S. CEOs and financiers are making billions of dollars by de-industrializing the U.S. and moving these jobs overseas with significantly lower labor costs. Most of their ‘earnings’ came from the lower living standards of today’s working age people. To add insult to injury, most of this wealth is taxed at a rate considerable lower than almost all other Americans excepting those forced to take government help. When Social Security, Medicare, sales taxes, and predatory “taxes” on the poor are added, this income inequality is greatly magnified.
6
You are obviously under the mistaken impression that political contests are a time to discuss the issues. How could anyone expect to get elected if they give in to the temptation to talk about real problems?
10
The problem is nobody knows what do do. It is, as TF says, a really new era. The republicans still fall back on world-order barking but hopefully the Cheney-Bush-Rumsfeld debacle in Iraq was the last blow of that old 50's foreign policy (although anything can happen in a country where 50% of us still believe in creationism). Pres. Obama, followed nervously by most democrats, are reacting (properly) with hands off and stay out. We really have no choice but to take care of our own homeland and support what makes sense abroad and what minimizes the needless drain on our resources and military. And by the way if we don't fixed our rotted election process we're headed down the same path.
5
To the list of Mr. Goodwin you may add Axact, the world's largest cyber-mill of false university diplomas, has no professors — http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/18/world/asia/fake-diplomas-real-cash-pak...
13
...a substantial difference, Goodwin's list is of legitimate businesses, while Axact is a harmful scam that bleeds hundreds of thousands of ignorant victims with offers of higher education to deliver false diplomas, not worth the paper they are printed on.
Axact is comparable to our current political process. The slate of candidates, with rare exceptions, are the agents of deception, fooling the naive electorate with elusive offers of a better future that never comes true and enriching the coffers of their patrons and handlers.
Axact is comparable to our current political process. The slate of candidates, with rare exceptions, are the agents of deception, fooling the naive electorate with elusive offers of a better future that never comes true and enriching the coffers of their patrons and handlers.
Excellent column filled with an accurate (though troubling) synthesis of where the world is right now. While disorder is great and getting greater, we are using communication tools such as the internet to not build confidence or solutions as much as to tear down and instill distrust of the institutions that currently exist to possibly help. We either have to build new institutions (and I mean that as not just government, but corporate, and other large non governmental entities such as banks and not for profit humanitarian and environmental and other organizations) - or figure out how to trust the ones that are able to function. There is more than a chance of sliding backwards into some very primitive situations for some time to come. This could lead to not only more migrants at our shores, but diseases and environmental disasters.
In this country, our political discourse has become so polarized and bizarre, it boggles the mind on how any of the people currently running for the office of President, or even the Congress or Governorships, can try to get a level headed understanding about these situations and most importantly, work with others to try to do something effective. We get nothing but evasions and avoidance or denial.
Very scary times indeed.
In this country, our political discourse has become so polarized and bizarre, it boggles the mind on how any of the people currently running for the office of President, or even the Congress or Governorships, can try to get a level headed understanding about these situations and most importantly, work with others to try to do something effective. We get nothing but evasions and avoidance or denial.
Very scary times indeed.
99
I'm confused Tom, isn't it within the power of the media to press candidates for answers on key issues ? The rest of us don't have access to the candidates. We rely upon you and your peers to inform us.
It is frustrating to watch an interview with a candidate wherein the candidate is allowed to totall dodge a question without any followup by the host.
I presume that this behavior is due to an implicit pact between them, where the interviewer looks tough, while the candidate smoothly slips away......everyone but the public wins.
It is frustrating to watch an interview with a candidate wherein the candidate is allowed to totall dodge a question without any followup by the host.
I presume that this behavior is due to an implicit pact between them, where the interviewer looks tough, while the candidate smoothly slips away......everyone but the public wins.
13
We COULD have a massive solar panel installation government subsidized job creating project. We COULD have a massive government subsidized desalinization and water redistribution job creating project. We COULD have a massive government subsidized job creating transportation infrastructure overhaul. We COULD have universal healthcare and government funded medical school. We COULD do a lot of necessary things if we changed our theory of money and we COULD have a more civil and compassionate society.
37
People who make money from these structural changes have a moral obligation to help those who are displaced by the changes.
8
"While Senators Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders are motivated by clear ideologies, the others, so far, evince much more compelling ambitions to be president than compelling reasons for why they should be." --- Friedman
So let's have a campaign about clear ideologies, Paul vs. Sanders. The others, Clinton, Bush, Rubio, etc., spend too much of their time holding up their fingers to see which way the political wind is blowing. They seem to have no true convictions of their own, except for a conviction that they should be president.
A contest between Paul's brand of libertarianism and Sander's brand of socialism would put the issues of our times squarely on the table for discussion, but the monied powers that control our elections and our government don't want that; they want candidates that talk about what they think the public wants, but that really only have the interests of their rich and corporate supporters at heart. In other words, candidates who are adept at the art of duplicity.
So let's have a campaign about clear ideologies, Paul vs. Sanders. The others, Clinton, Bush, Rubio, etc., spend too much of their time holding up their fingers to see which way the political wind is blowing. They seem to have no true convictions of their own, except for a conviction that they should be president.
A contest between Paul's brand of libertarianism and Sander's brand of socialism would put the issues of our times squarely on the table for discussion, but the monied powers that control our elections and our government don't want that; they want candidates that talk about what they think the public wants, but that really only have the interests of their rich and corporate supporters at heart. In other words, candidates who are adept at the art of duplicity.
24
Once upon a time, we citizens could expect a presidential candidate to roll out meaningful positions for making improvements in various areas of our daily lives. Strange, I haven't a clue what Republicans intend to do other than bash Hillary over inane topics over and over again trying to make a crisis over emails. As they do with President Obama, as they did with former President Clinton.
I have never been so disappointed with politics in the USA. The only one that makes sense is Bernie Sanders, an independent. Forget the parties. They are so deeply stuck in their own sludge they have forgotten their reason for being. Obviously, the parties don't know what to do about anything or their candidates that represent them.
I have never been so disappointed with politics in the USA. The only one that makes sense is Bernie Sanders, an independent. Forget the parties. They are so deeply stuck in their own sludge they have forgotten their reason for being. Obviously, the parties don't know what to do about anything or their candidates that represent them.
29
Senator Sanders is a Democratic Socialist, declared and running as one of, to date, the only two declared Democrat, presidential candidates. He is not a third party candidate, meaning that contributions to his campaign, or voting for him in the primaries in no way takes votes from whomever is nominated to run as a Democrat presidential candidate in the general election. To forget the two indisputably major parties, Democrat party and Republican party, as you suggest, is begging for contentious blame, Ralph Nader comes to mind, and loss in this country. After thirty-eight years of strong experience in politics, Senator Sander is aware of this fact and has realistically caucused with Democrats, and has chosen to run in one of the two major parties in America, the party of Democrats. A realistic choice and good going Senator Sanders !
1
Perhaps another way of looking at it: tribal versus post-tribal
3
What if we were in the middle of World War III and didn't know it? "Last year, the U.N.’s refugee agency said there are more displaced people worldwide — some 50 million — than at anytime since World War II." Perhaps the "chaos vs. order" dilemma Mr. Friedman discribes is the new world powers of the conflagration unfolding? Will modern wars be decade long simmering low level scirmishes of nihilism creating massive refugee camps where nations used to be? We are entering uncharted waters with dire consequences for tens of millions of the "collateral damaged".
9
As for escaping from the worlds of disorder to worlds of order, a problem exists in that no matter where people "escape" to, they carry their past and culture with them, in their minds. They will be victims and antagonists for as long as they fiercely hold on to their past cultures, believing it's who they are. If they had been raised somewhere else, "who they are" would no doubt be completely different. Who we become is determined by our habits of thought along the way. Until we are willing to adjust our thoughts, we will have great difficulty getting along with each other. So we will continue to have disorder even in the orderly places.
If people could just change their thinking and become people without labels or religion or ethnicity or specialness, it wouldn't matter where or with whom we end up. Basically we're pretty much the same. We're all One, so to speak.
How does one get that message across?
If people could just change their thinking and become people without labels or religion or ethnicity or specialness, it wouldn't matter where or with whom we end up. Basically we're pretty much the same. We're all One, so to speak.
How does one get that message across?
1
It is perfectly all right for Americans to expect presidential aspirants, including Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton, to clarify their past actions and present positions on matters of importance, like supporting military adventurism in the Middle East. For Jeb Bush, partly because of his recent remarks, that is a very significant issue – not to be dismissed flippantly as Thomas Friedman does as “whether he is or is not his brother’s keeper.”
Regarding worldwide disorder, there probably will not be any ready solutions offered from any candidates, particularly from the Republicans in the race. On related issues, we have come to expect answers from the conservatives which either make no sense or are simply jingoistic slogans.
No one likes disorder except those who profit from it, like the human traffickers who received hefty fees from refugees fleeing the disorder and poverty of Africa and then murdered thousands of them in the Mediterranean. It is a grim business, and there are other profiteers, of course, such as the sellers of machine guns and bulldozers.
Solving disorder is something which ought to elicit agreement among the leaders and would-be leaders of all western democracies. If disorder cannot be prevented in an ethical way, something will have to be found as a replacement. The general term “order” is a non-answer.
Regarding worldwide disorder, there probably will not be any ready solutions offered from any candidates, particularly from the Republicans in the race. On related issues, we have come to expect answers from the conservatives which either make no sense or are simply jingoistic slogans.
No one likes disorder except those who profit from it, like the human traffickers who received hefty fees from refugees fleeing the disorder and poverty of Africa and then murdered thousands of them in the Mediterranean. It is a grim business, and there are other profiteers, of course, such as the sellers of machine guns and bulldozers.
Solving disorder is something which ought to elicit agreement among the leaders and would-be leaders of all western democracies. If disorder cannot be prevented in an ethical way, something will have to be found as a replacement. The general term “order” is a non-answer.
1
"we don't know what to do." Exactly. So we need to work with other modern countries (and that means the west) to spread birth control to every corner of the world where that will be acceptable. (that lets out the middle east) No kow-towing to the Catholic church on this one. We need to help the continent of Africa protect the world heritage of its fantastic animals. And if that means insulting Chines people with their ridiculous obsession with rhino horns, so be it. We need to work with Latin America to protect themselves from a future of Chinese colonialism. We need to help Christians and Jews in the middle east (and I mean Israel too) prepare to evacuate its citizens in the meltdown that will occur there soon. All western countries need to incarcerate every muslim that has a proven interest in terrorism-- no exceptions, no mercy. And all of us are entitled to protect our borders-- send the humanitarian aid there, do not bring them here. None of my statements are partisan-- I am a lifelong democrat. But this is a time for clear action in the face of clear and present danger.
18
I shudder to place myself in the mind of a Republican candidate, for which you'd need an FBI profiler, but in Hillary's case, she is waiting to see just how far left she is going to be nudged by contenders as she bargains between ambition and Wall Street loyalties.
3
The revelant dualism is not as much order/disorder as it is creativity/disorder. As Mr. Friedman says in this article, people will have to be trained "to do more creative work."
2
2 words - virtual realities...
1
150 years ago the question was how the world would look after the Industrial Revolution destroyed our bucolic agricultural way of life. Which really wasn't so ideal when we consider the source of so much agricultural labor; slavery and indentured servitude and feudal peons.
In this age we are learning the secrets of energy; of the atom, of the human mind, of the sun. If we embrace these changes we might find the way to harness that energy for the benefit of us all; if we continue to look backward with fear and dread that benefit will be only for those cunning enough to exploit the fear in the rest of us.
Which seems to be our current direction.
In this age we are learning the secrets of energy; of the atom, of the human mind, of the sun. If we embrace these changes we might find the way to harness that energy for the benefit of us all; if we continue to look backward with fear and dread that benefit will be only for those cunning enough to exploit the fear in the rest of us.
Which seems to be our current direction.
9
Karl Marx was evidently among the first to see that automated means of production must have distributed ownership to sustain demand.
5
We need to develop an alternative currency which is energy. At our most basic core, we are all beings who use energy. If Alternative energies were developed and traded, the whole world could benefit and we could save the planet and ourselves in the process.
I've come to the same conclusions over the past decade or so: automation is making many of us effectively obsolete. Our CEOs (aka "job creators") have recognized that profits go down, not up, when they do mass hiring- the computers can do everythimg that salaried employees can and more. Ergo, what's the point in handing them more tax subsidies and hoping for supply- side "trickle-down"? What we need to do is invest those revenues in infrastructure, education and renewable energy- i.e., to create the jobs that the Kochs and their ilk have declined to do inasmuch as there's nothing in it for them.
And one other thing: we've got to stop having kids. Not so much this country (at least not just yet) but certainly insofar as the "developing world" is concerned. In Africa and Latin America people have to stop listening to the Catholic church and start paying attention to the fact that there are no jobs for all the progeny they've been producing. And soon enough there'll be no jobs in the countries they're sending these kids to. Our government has to start creating jobs- and it also has to start handing out contraceptives and distributing them overseas regardless of what our right-wing biblethumpers have to say.
And one other thing: we've got to stop having kids. Not so much this country (at least not just yet) but certainly insofar as the "developing world" is concerned. In Africa and Latin America people have to stop listening to the Catholic church and start paying attention to the fact that there are no jobs for all the progeny they've been producing. And soon enough there'll be no jobs in the countries they're sending these kids to. Our government has to start creating jobs- and it also has to start handing out contraceptives and distributing them overseas regardless of what our right-wing biblethumpers have to say.
35
Lets see half the people in the country out of work, a country that has 300 million guns in the hands of it,s population, the economy will surely collapse with that many people without work and income, wow, i wonder what might happen next, this cannot be allowed to happen, folks they are talking 20 years, it is the blink of an eye, we need to get on top this, this should scare the you know what of people, it does me
8
I admire Friedman's optimism. He seems to think that Facebook, Uber, Airbnb, and the technology that is driving them will turn out to be a good thing once we get through a transitional stage. However, there are other ways of looking at it. We may be about to go over a very large cliff.
The end of traditional work, climate change, more failed states, ineffective democratic governments and media that misinforms rather than informs could all lead to more poverty, more disorder and more terrorism. The only strong institutions are international corporations and when their profits are in jeopardy, they will step in. They are virtually running the world now. We are moving toward a form of corporate tyranny characterized by plutocracy and poverty. It is highly likely that America will look a lot more like China by the end of the century then the other way around.
The end of traditional work, climate change, more failed states, ineffective democratic governments and media that misinforms rather than informs could all lead to more poverty, more disorder and more terrorism. The only strong institutions are international corporations and when their profits are in jeopardy, they will step in. They are virtually running the world now. We are moving toward a form of corporate tyranny characterized by plutocracy and poverty. It is highly likely that America will look a lot more like China by the end of the century then the other way around.
25
Or China AND America will bear little resemblance to the visions of either of their founding "fathers".
Oh Brave New Economy -- where I have the right to be without a secure decent job with fair pay and benefits, and a retirement plan -- but where I CAN become a jitney cab driver (courtesy of Uber) and earn a few dollars a day sporadically driving my OWN car with my OWN insurance.
Or failing that, rent out my spare bedroom. Of course that works out better if you live in Park Slope or Manhattan than if you live in Dayton, Ohio.
Or failing that, rent out my spare bedroom. Of course that works out better if you live in Park Slope or Manhattan than if you live in Dayton, Ohio.
24
Or you could live like we do, buying people's discards and selling them on eBay and face to face. Not secure or regular but it kind of works. Beats working in a factory for ten bucks an hour anyway, and at our somewhat advanced ages, kinder to our worn out bodies.
1
Tom you state "Complexity is becoming free". As you well know nothing is free and you go on in the rest of your article describing some of the costs of that complexity, inhumanity, economic deprivation for many, lack of leadership, fear, despair not hope and disorder where there was previously some sense of order.
The media so far has not adequately pressed these candidates on issues instead content to overdose on such things as the Hillary emails or Jeb's waistline or Rubio's sugar daddy. Megyn Kelly asked Jeb a valid question in a very softball way and he couldn't respond or wouldn't. Clinton has evaded the same question now for years. The hard questions will get answered or stonewalled when the media starts asking them and demanding a response.
The media so far has not adequately pressed these candidates on issues instead content to overdose on such things as the Hillary emails or Jeb's waistline or Rubio's sugar daddy. Megyn Kelly asked Jeb a valid question in a very softball way and he couldn't respond or wouldn't. Clinton has evaded the same question now for years. The hard questions will get answered or stonewalled when the media starts asking them and demanding a response.
6
Only people can create demand, but they need money to do it. You can pour all the money in the world on a robot and it will never demand more than the electricity it consumes to function.
12
We've just witnessed another "World is getting flatter" Friedman moment with this characterization of the world as Orderly zone vs. Disorderly zone. In short, this needs to be required reading for anyone with a brain, which mostly includes policy makers.
5
Jeb and Hillary only exist to facilitate their own wealth and ambition. If Teddy Roosevelt were alive today, he would have wrestled the world's malefactors to the floor, put them in a head lock and said "When you're slapped, you'll take it and like it". Can you really picture Jeb or Hillary with that kind of moxie?
6
We have too many superannuated Boy Scouts in US politics today.
1
Roosevelt chose not to run for a third term in 1908, when he could have quite easily been re-elected. He was not all about ego and power, even though he was larger than life. He told it like it was. He had the first African-American to dinner in the White House, at great political risk. He confronted Wall Street barons head on. He was a street fighter for the common man. That's why I like Bernie Sanders I guess.
5
I prefer T.R. the Environmentalist (e.g. the Midnight forests) - as such, of course, if he had lived now, we would never have heard of him.
And when we all buy and wear virtual clothes and otherwise go naked in the world, who will dare say the obvious? That all the technology in the world is making the world a worse place, not a better one and that only difference is now we know almost instantly how bad a place it is.
5
Someone, whether a candidate or current officeholder, has to figure out a way to manage the global economy through developing international deals that benefit everyone each nation's individual economic situation. That sounds impossible, but as it now stands, only individual corporations and a very small proportion of individuals (call it "the 1%" or whatever you want to make up) are getting very rich while wages and salaries, as well as the number of jobs, for everyone else are stagnating or declining. Voters must pressure all the 2016 candidates to address this vital problem, and in the context of environmental sustainability!
1
Fat chance when both Democrats and Republicans answer only to money:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tu32CCA_Ig
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tu32CCA_Ig
In essence, world-wide there are not nearly enough jobs for the number of people who are on the planet. And it is getting worse.
If you put 20 male and female fish into a 10 gallon aquarium, and another male and female into a different 10 gallon aquarium, in a year or so both aquariums will have the same number of fish. There is a fixed number who can live there given the space available.
For humans, that "space" is not only square miles but is jobs so you can buy food, shelter and medical care. Technology has reduced the size of our aquarium. And continues to.
Is the only outcome massive world disorder? It all feels out of control to me, and I am frightened.
If you put 20 male and female fish into a 10 gallon aquarium, and another male and female into a different 10 gallon aquarium, in a year or so both aquariums will have the same number of fish. There is a fixed number who can live there given the space available.
For humans, that "space" is not only square miles but is jobs so you can buy food, shelter and medical care. Technology has reduced the size of our aquarium. And continues to.
Is the only outcome massive world disorder? It all feels out of control to me, and I am frightened.
10
"God will provide" will be the death knell of this planet.
6
A well written and thought provoking piece by Mr. Friedman. And yet, in spite of all the rhetoric and blustering by our candidates, not a sliver or hint of any solution to any problems. Plenty of bluster about religion, abortion, and big government, and no more than that. In that vein, I'd like to submit my design for a bumper sticker which might reflect today's thinking:
"Here here humanity.......smart enough to develop nuclear weapons.....dumb enough to use them"
"Here here humanity.......smart enough to develop nuclear weapons.....dumb enough to use them"
8
Thomas Friedman's column today is an amazing display of his insight and talent to interpret politics and world issues. Before we say that things are in a terrible
mess let's remember history. WW II!! Nuclear weapons used. 911! The fact that their are 50m refugee's. It is easy in the "blame Obama" syndrome to not realize that the Middle East is rising up in a messy reaction to the dictator's
that have ruled for years. It was inevitable. And the fact that the information age of the internet has bestowed the good, bad and the ugly on us all.
Thomas's column should be on the front page of every newspaper and
electronic news and blog for all to read. The present has alway's held threats as long as their are so many weapons in the world. We all can make some difference. We owe it to our children. We need experienced leader's
and the courage to accept the truth and work for the better.
mess let's remember history. WW II!! Nuclear weapons used. 911! The fact that their are 50m refugee's. It is easy in the "blame Obama" syndrome to not realize that the Middle East is rising up in a messy reaction to the dictator's
that have ruled for years. It was inevitable. And the fact that the information age of the internet has bestowed the good, bad and the ugly on us all.
Thomas's column should be on the front page of every newspaper and
electronic news and blog for all to read. The present has alway's held threats as long as their are so many weapons in the world. We all can make some difference. We owe it to our children. We need experienced leader's
and the courage to accept the truth and work for the better.
3
What is different now is that technology is creating one or two jobs for every thousand it displaces. This will not end well
How many columns like this did Thomas Friedman write scrutinizing the words, deeds and past of his BFF, Barack Obama in 2008 or 2012?
ZERO.
And in 2012 Friedman had 4 years of presidential lies and broken promises to choose from.
Yet Tom puts Hillary and Jeb under the political microscope.
Sigh.
Hypocrisy, thy name is Friedman
ZERO.
And in 2012 Friedman had 4 years of presidential lies and broken promises to choose from.
Yet Tom puts Hillary and Jeb under the political microscope.
Sigh.
Hypocrisy, thy name is Friedman
1
In a world where too much is never enough, we have become each other's competitors for everything.
3
Mr. Friedman seems to equate "technology shifts", which have always happened, with "order and disorder', which have not. The biggest challenge of the next presidency will not be whether the largest taxi company in the world owns or doesn't own vehicles, but what will replace the "empires" which have maintained "order".
Before WW1, it was the British, the French, and the Ottomans, who more or less controlled order in their own spheres of influence. After WW2, it was the Soviet Union (in the east) and the United States and its "Pax Americana" pretty much every where else. And although they never called themselves "empires", they were, and in the case of the U.S. still is exactly that.
Since then, the Soviet Union has gone bankrupt, and the U.S. is well on its way to do the same, unless smarter heads prevail and the U.S. realizes that its "empire" and its "world policing responsibilities" are no longer affordable and clash with the pressing needs at home.
What will replace these "empires", and what system of shared world governance will keep some sense of order in the world? That is the biggest challenge facing our future president.
Before WW1, it was the British, the French, and the Ottomans, who more or less controlled order in their own spheres of influence. After WW2, it was the Soviet Union (in the east) and the United States and its "Pax Americana" pretty much every where else. And although they never called themselves "empires", they were, and in the case of the U.S. still is exactly that.
Since then, the Soviet Union has gone bankrupt, and the U.S. is well on its way to do the same, unless smarter heads prevail and the U.S. realizes that its "empire" and its "world policing responsibilities" are no longer affordable and clash with the pressing needs at home.
What will replace these "empires", and what system of shared world governance will keep some sense of order in the world? That is the biggest challenge facing our future president.
3
Information without production has become a commodity, But information is not thinking putting ideas together and coming up with something completely new something at this point only the human mind is capable of doing. But in this transaction the human mind seems to be becoming dispensable and human work fed by our minds not valued. So as humans we are becoming lost and losing purpose in the world other than mere survival. And in this we are not doing a good job as nature through global warming and less resources corrects its experiment which started out so well us.
2
In recent months, a number of articles have appeared that describe the growing inequality gap in the United States. There is also a very rapidly growing "inequality gap" between the technologically advanced countries and the rest of the world. I believe that this trend will accelerate in the next decade, and as the gap widens, most of the world's countries at the lower end will survive primarily by being suppliers of raw materials, natural resources, and markets. This coming world situation has happened before, and we used to call it colonialism, but that's a word that is out of favor; however, unlike the previous colonial period, the lower end countries will not have the military means to extricate themselves.
(As an aside, my great grandfather's brother was Leon Trotsky whose real name was Lev Bronstein.)
(As an aside, my great grandfather's brother was Leon Trotsky whose real name was Lev Bronstein.)
2
These are excellent points written by Mr. Friedman. We are definitely in a WORLD of Disorder. While it started in the last Bush administration, it has been significantly worsened by our President and the State department of Clinton and Kerry. Meanwhile the racial tensions and economic lack of good jobs have caused our country to be more divisive. The end result puts us in Domestic disorder. Can citizens elect someone who can create Order or will they choose party affiliation and the best attack ads and spinners to lead our country? Stay tuned.
"Significantly worsened? " How many US troops have killed since the W fiasco actually began an unstoppable domino effect? Does anyone really think that there was some magic policy that President Obama had at the ready? The only reason things continued to unravel was the Iraq invasion's consequences. Humpty Dumpty could never be put back together. Trying to blame Mr. Obama, Sec.'s Clinton and Kerry is just foolish. If anything they rerighted the image of the US everywhere in the world except here in America. The greatest of enemies of our country are the right wing billionares with the entire republican party and the over the top conservative news media.
1
Just last night I watched Anthony Bourdain as he toured idyllic looking Western Massachusetts. The once productive mill towns are now emptied of jobs. Their inhabitants use heroin. This is the New England of Norman Rockwell, now a hellishly depressing place of drug addiction and terminal unemployment.
And a New Yorker article about software billionaire Mark Andressen spoke of people in Silicon Valley who think their world, not the US, is the future of mankind. They really, truly believe America is dead and dying and that the wondrous work and meaning of life will be found on the smallest bits and bytes. They will hire and manufacture anywhere as long as they can make money. And the nation that gave them the freedom to do so be damned.
Americans need productive work. And damn it, we need protectionism again. We need to protect the jobs that this country has to have to survive. You go anywhere in this nation and you find extremes of wealth, and a majority of people who cannot find well paying jobs.
Instead, our government has wasted and squandered trillions in wars. And continues to do so giving tax breaks to the wealthiest corporations and people. And in return, what has become of those small towns and larger cities like Detroit, Newark, Akron and St. Louis that once provided work and sustained families?
I don't care what new app is coming to my phone. I need a job. I need money. I need to eat.
And a New Yorker article about software billionaire Mark Andressen spoke of people in Silicon Valley who think their world, not the US, is the future of mankind. They really, truly believe America is dead and dying and that the wondrous work and meaning of life will be found on the smallest bits and bytes. They will hire and manufacture anywhere as long as they can make money. And the nation that gave them the freedom to do so be damned.
Americans need productive work. And damn it, we need protectionism again. We need to protect the jobs that this country has to have to survive. You go anywhere in this nation and you find extremes of wealth, and a majority of people who cannot find well paying jobs.
Instead, our government has wasted and squandered trillions in wars. And continues to do so giving tax breaks to the wealthiest corporations and people. And in return, what has become of those small towns and larger cities like Detroit, Newark, Akron and St. Louis that once provided work and sustained families?
I don't care what new app is coming to my phone. I need a job. I need money. I need to eat.
60
It's H. P. Lovecraft country out there in the northern Berkshires.
1
@Andy Van Nuys, CA
Yours is one terrific, terrifying comment. The increase in heroin addiction, which does seem especially acute in rural New England but also is a serious problem in other places such as the prosperous North Jersey suburbs, is indeed related to despair about the present and future that you describe.
@Tom Friedman
This is one terrific column.
Yours is one terrific, terrifying comment. The increase in heroin addiction, which does seem especially acute in rural New England but also is a serious problem in other places such as the prosperous North Jersey suburbs, is indeed related to despair about the present and future that you describe.
@Tom Friedman
This is one terrific column.
3
Thank you Paul.
2
Better than the article are the comments!
5
Actually, Clinton did weigh in on Iran rather decisively in favor of the framework of the Iran nuclear deal. She also said that she favored negotiating over war. The column is an interesting premise on the new business model of not owning the actual product being sold but rather disjointed. Did you need to throw in the political candidate's angle just for the word count or for the headline?
6
"A recent study by the Oxford Martin School concluded that 47 percent of U.S. jobs are at high risk of being taken by smart machines and software in the next two decades."
But Tom, as of today, or even going forward in the next 50 years, machines have yet to reach a level of Artificial Intelligence to compete with humans. Behind every machine, every server is a responsible human being pulling the trigger. This article places blame on the guns and bullets but say nothing about the Wizard of Oz behind that trigger, that button.
The global population is exploding, with less viable place to live and grow crops. At the same time, data technology should help policy makers organize the world for a better place. We have exchanged a multitude of local dictators, fascists, lords for a smaller sample of gazillionaires. We don't need to colonize, just apply capitalistic forces. The monetary gain from an exponential population growth, all needing to be fed more, exceeds the desire to overtake a small country for resources like oil and minerals. The global economy could not be globalized if it didn't have 7 billion customers all wanting the food, shelter, and healthcare. When it's crowded, primitive survival instinct kicks in.
What cannot be done from the top, by logic, must be done from the bottom. This is what we are seeing in what you called "Disorder." Even there, it is NOT about technology.
It's about humanity. In that sense, we are have more in common than we have differences.
But Tom, as of today, or even going forward in the next 50 years, machines have yet to reach a level of Artificial Intelligence to compete with humans. Behind every machine, every server is a responsible human being pulling the trigger. This article places blame on the guns and bullets but say nothing about the Wizard of Oz behind that trigger, that button.
The global population is exploding, with less viable place to live and grow crops. At the same time, data technology should help policy makers organize the world for a better place. We have exchanged a multitude of local dictators, fascists, lords for a smaller sample of gazillionaires. We don't need to colonize, just apply capitalistic forces. The monetary gain from an exponential population growth, all needing to be fed more, exceeds the desire to overtake a small country for resources like oil and minerals. The global economy could not be globalized if it didn't have 7 billion customers all wanting the food, shelter, and healthcare. When it's crowded, primitive survival instinct kicks in.
What cannot be done from the top, by logic, must be done from the bottom. This is what we are seeing in what you called "Disorder." Even there, it is NOT about technology.
It's about humanity. In that sense, we are have more in common than we have differences.
But there will always be room for bloviating. Apparently.
1
"This can free up workers to do more creative work, but they have to be trained for it." - An oxymoron no?
Friedman is of course correct that almost every candidate is motivated far more by personal ambition than any genuine concern for our future. This is one of the most disturbing aspects of politics today: In recent years, only narcissists and sociopaths seem to jump at the chance to run for President. Of all current candidates, only Bernie Sanders has a clear, consistent, and coherent philosophy that addresses serious issues facing our nation. Every one of the others will bend their ideas and policies, depending upon the audience. Montreal Moe correctly identifies Jimmy Carter as one of the last Presidents who honestly wanted to do the right thing for our nation-----and Mr. Carter has been scorned ever since. This says far more about our nation's character than it does about Jimmy Carter.
11
President Carter stopped the runaway gas prices with the "Windfall Profit Tax" that was immediately repealed by Reagan. Funny how gas prices then suddenly nosed dived during the 80's. Also Carter was the first and only President to actively promote alternative energy so much that he installed solar panels on the Whitehouse roof. Again Reagan promply took these down as his comtempt for all things sensible and benefitting the middle class ran unabated. And forget his "trickledown" nonsense that remains the mainstay of his republican party, even after 35 years of documented failure for everyone except the off shoring, robot building, greed merchants during this entire time. I truly don't think that there is now any way out of this bogus economic model. Not without a devastating culture war. Oh I forgot, that's where we are today.
2
Amtrack needs billions to be in the 21st. Century. Let's start here, in the U.S.of A. A candidate who will focus on this country,is the one we need now. Enough of mindless, unproductive thoughts of other countries and their issues, of our leaders throwing hundreds of billions of dollars out of our treasury and into unknown foreign voids. Enough of spilling American blood for dubious and illusionary reasons and worse. U.S.just guaranteed a billion dollar loan to the Ukraine? Who is the owner of that loan and why did the taxpayers of the U.S. assume responsibility for it? When the Ukraine defaults, what infrastructure project here will be cancelled? The world is sovereign as we should remember and get back, in a big way, to our own knitting.
5
The readers cite our own troubles as evidence against this brilliant Friedman essay. It could be that America itself is becoming one of the disordered. Some Chinese, Irish, and other residents of this country are returning to the land of their origins. Not a good sign!
A Trotsky paraphrase; haven't seen one of them in many a year. Evokes a little nostalgia in this old man.
1
“knowledge workers at the middle and the top” may be more threatened than those doing physical work.
-- this is certainly true. A human needs many years of advanced education to solve complex mathematical integrals, yet online solvers can do it better in seconds. Yet who's gonna clean a toilet? Not your computer, not an app, not online.
-- this is certainly true. A human needs many years of advanced education to solve complex mathematical integrals, yet online solvers can do it better in seconds. Yet who's gonna clean a toilet? Not your computer, not an app, not online.
1
It's simple. Very, very few folks extremely rich and most everyone else poor. No jobs. You can't have an economy where few support many. Social disruptions right around the corner. Gated communities with private police forces. If the world's population was reduced by fifty percent, all those remaining would have good paying jobs. But that isn't gonna happen. No President can fix this problem. Of course, our politicians don't want to talk about it, our citizens would be consumed by fear and rise up, take to the streets. Gonna happen anyway.
The perplexing thing about the Bushie Iraq stumble press coverage is that nowhere is it discussed that Dick Cheney, serving as W's mentor, created the false intelligence on WMD in Iraq to mask his invasion to capture an oil site for the US. Or that his buddy, Rumsfeld, blew the opportunity by trying the war grab on the cheap. "Bush's Poodle", Tony Blair got it for Britain's BP.
Long after the invasion, the Government de-classified a White Paper issued by Cheney, as Secretary of Defense for H.W. Bush. Cheney noted that it was essential for America's security that we secure a Middle East Oil Country.
He opined that Iraq was the most logical. because the world would judge us as liberators in toppling Sadaam Hussein. Had we been successful oil imperialists, we would have laughed, with guilty smirks, all the way to the (oil) bank. Didn't happen.
Long after the invasion, the Government de-classified a White Paper issued by Cheney, as Secretary of Defense for H.W. Bush. Cheney noted that it was essential for America's security that we secure a Middle East Oil Country.
He opined that Iraq was the most logical. because the world would judge us as liberators in toppling Sadaam Hussein. Had we been successful oil imperialists, we would have laughed, with guilty smirks, all the way to the (oil) bank. Didn't happen.
2
We have been the military force that caused disorder in the Middle East.
2
47% of the workforce will be displaced in the next 20 years you would think we would be treating that as a catastrophe in the making which is exactly what it is but yet we are running headfirst towards what will end up being the greatest challenge this country has ever faced trust me on this one disorder will win out it will not be pretty
2
All over the world including the US people elect leaders based on governance. Yes they are many challenges but no one elects based on what to do with a primitive backward looking tribal warfare in the middle east. The problem there is so primitive that has no place nor are they people there to listen to your considerate leadership ideas. Currently our hope is that good governance, which includes cooperation of the President and Congress, will further improve our economy, improve average incomes and we still have enough money to invest in science, education, research, infrastructure and, yes, Arts.
So we are looking for those debates and not hidden emails, whether Bush was right or wrong (do we not know that answer already?) and other things of no consequence to the average American.
So we are looking for those debates and not hidden emails, whether Bush was right or wrong (do we not know that answer already?) and other things of no consequence to the average American.
Interesting that Israel is paying the refugees in cash to leave or go to jail. Because of economic disruption from technology, geopolitics & globalization, even residents in the World of Order, may have to be payed to maintain the status quo, that is, the peace. It may well be cheaper to buy the idled than risk incipient chaos.
Opponents will claim payout plans are extortionate & what's to stop the recipients from demanding more & more. All we have to do is look at the present state of labor relations to see that threats to move production or simply close down (ownership already flush) secure the desired results of grudging compliance.
Perhaps the entertainment industry can shift from sex & violence to to a more benign fare, even stimulating a desire for education? Imagine all the start-ups with no inventory, when everybody becomes an entrepreneur!
Opponents will claim payout plans are extortionate & what's to stop the recipients from demanding more & more. All we have to do is look at the present state of labor relations to see that threats to move production or simply close down (ownership already flush) secure the desired results of grudging compliance.
Perhaps the entertainment industry can shift from sex & violence to to a more benign fare, even stimulating a desire for education? Imagine all the start-ups with no inventory, when everybody becomes an entrepreneur!
I too am always amazed at how clueless our political class is to the reality that we are seeing the end of labor as we know it as a result of technology, and at such a rapid rate. This has resulted in our politicians identifying symptoms, and railing on about the injustices that these symptoms cause (i.e., gross disparity in income), but not addressing the continuous job loss and in some cases entire vocation loss as a result of not just rote automation technology, but also most recently, artificial intelligence. This has result in tens of millions of Americans with either no or few marketable jobs skills, and thus an ever increasing over supply of labor for the few jobs that are left, which is the biggest factor in keeping wages low. The old adage is still true that to have a secure well paying career you need two things: first you need skills that are hard to come by and not easily replaced, and second, those skills need to be very valuable to an employer. Technology has commodified a great deal of the job market including entire vocations. The ability to standout as a valuable if not exceptional human resource is evaporating into the technology, and our politicians are clueless about this as well as the massive economic dislocation that is/will result.
77
Our political class I thinks does have an idea of what is happening but does not know what to do about it. It's the working class that doesn't have a clue.
We are experiencing the "tragedy of the unregulated financial commons". Money is being hoarded by extraordinary selfish members of society and our more altruistic members are suffering.
Look at the Wikipedia definition of tragedy of the commons and apply that to today's economic conditions. If we regulated the hoarders, such as taxing extreme wealth hoarding at Eisenhower era rates, we would inspire innovation and robust economic distribution of opportunity.
Short of that, welcome of serfdom.
Look at the Wikipedia definition of tragedy of the commons and apply that to today's economic conditions. If we regulated the hoarders, such as taxing extreme wealth hoarding at Eisenhower era rates, we would inspire innovation and robust economic distribution of opportunity.
Short of that, welcome of serfdom.
5
A very thoughtful op-ed which poses the ethical dillema of human displacement by successful tech & robotics companies. The tech revolution prides itself on disrupting. This implies that anyone with a kernel of an idea can create a start-up which disrupts traditional business and worry about regulation later. AirBnb didn't concern itself with the rules & regulations or avoidance of taxation by government. Uber is already investing in "autonomous" vehicles which will allow them to run without drivers. AirBnb doesn't pay hotel taxes to the cities in which they operate nor do the renters report their income. Again, the disruptive nature of these companies implies that they will overtake traditional modes of business which are burdened with taxes & regulations & replace them with a "customer friendly" model. The downside is that the tax base is eroded & people in the community lose jobs.
This disruption can be compared to the economic migration of destitute people across the globe, as Mr. Friedman notes. When government doesn't set in place rules & regulations as well as central planning, citizens are left in the lurch. This is why it is crucial that politicians have big ideas & focus on both economic success, support of small business, but also balance the economic impact of these disruptors on the populace. Hillary Clinton is widely supported by the tech industry. Does she condone the disruptive nature of their innovation or will she also temper her support to protect workers?
This disruption can be compared to the economic migration of destitute people across the globe, as Mr. Friedman notes. When government doesn't set in place rules & regulations as well as central planning, citizens are left in the lurch. This is why it is crucial that politicians have big ideas & focus on both economic success, support of small business, but also balance the economic impact of these disruptors on the populace. Hillary Clinton is widely supported by the tech industry. Does she condone the disruptive nature of their innovation or will she also temper her support to protect workers?
60
The political field is over-crowded, certainly in the ranks of the GOP, but Hillary's silence on matters leaves Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren to at least offer substantive discussion on a suggestion of matters covered in Friedman's column, economic inequity, technological change, etc. Yeats' poem...the worst are full of conviction are those in the GOP field who yammer on about abortion, socialism, gay marriage, while the real issues of the environment, to drill or not, frac or not, when to invade or not, drone or not, provide for or not whether medical care, education, are left behind.
3
Bernie in particular is the great wingman to Hillary. He is able to take all the heat for leftist liberal and socialist future that America must embrace if it is to be competitive in the the world economy. It also is the only prescription for a healthy society, which the conservatives are desperately trying to sabotage. Hillary can talk in a more mainstream and electable manner and not be hounded by a relentless, ratings driven press.
Forget about our own presidential candidates for a second, and think about the massive abdication in global leadership in failing to educate, encourage and hand out free birth control on every street corner around the world.
Our leaders of have been so focused on a greedy ideology of cancerous 'growth' that they don't neglected to notice that the 7 billion humans and counting is demographic, environmental and economic time bomb.
Priority #1 in stabilizing a disintegrating world is a massive condom drop, free IUDs for all females, high-quality public sex education and a formal reprimand to religion's medieval influence over the human brain's ability to think.
Our problems will get exponentially worse here in America and across the globe if human sexual reproduction is not remediated with common sense birth control and education.
"Be fruitful and multiply" is really bad religious advice.
It's time we admitted that.
Our leaders of have been so focused on a greedy ideology of cancerous 'growth' that they don't neglected to notice that the 7 billion humans and counting is demographic, environmental and economic time bomb.
Priority #1 in stabilizing a disintegrating world is a massive condom drop, free IUDs for all females, high-quality public sex education and a formal reprimand to religion's medieval influence over the human brain's ability to think.
Our problems will get exponentially worse here in America and across the globe if human sexual reproduction is not remediated with common sense birth control and education.
"Be fruitful and multiply" is really bad religious advice.
It's time we admitted that.
137
Agree-- birth control is the most important issue of our time, and nobody talks about it. CA is in the worst drought ever, yet politicians are doing nothing to get rid of illegals and limit incoming migration from China and India, plus Latin America. They won't even discuss free birth control for all, which is an essential component to our survival. If we can't even get the population control job done in enlightened Ca, there is clearly no hope for countries like Haiti or all of Africa. And thus, we in better countries will be stuck with their excess.
8
Mr. Friedman, in the last paragraph of your excellent article, you quote Trotsky. One question a few million people might ask: who is Trotsky?
If Trotsky had been a baseball player, more people might remember him.
Unfortunately, the level of knowledge in our "knowledge-based" society is so abysmal that most people cannot even think of current events or issues in historical terms. I don't know any longer what they are exposed to during eight years of middle and high school attendance.
If Trotsky had been a baseball player, more people might remember him.
Unfortunately, the level of knowledge in our "knowledge-based" society is so abysmal that most people cannot even think of current events or issues in historical terms. I don't know any longer what they are exposed to during eight years of middle and high school attendance.
2
Well here is why those 7 years matter: students learning college cheers as is that will get them there; anti bullying claptrap in middle school; algebra by age 12 instead of simple math; fact based reading as the core of common core (boring) instead of literature (fun); in the south, creationism instead of evolution; and in Clovis CA abstinence only as the basis of sex education. Next topic.
" I don't know any longer what they are exposed to during eight years of middle and high school attendance."
George, not to nit pick, but that would be 12 years.
George, not to nit pick, but that would be 12 years.
Hillary Clinton has a very tarnished reputation: Benghazi, email scandal, questionable donations to Clinton Foundation by foreign investors.
Jeb Bush has a very uncharacteristic position for Republicans and conservatives: he supports Common Core and immigration reform, this is not things that will be good for America.
Rand Paul is a really good candidate. He and Elizabeth Warren, but I do not believe that Democrats will allow to her to run for presidency, because it would mean that Hillary Clinton's will lose her gender advantage.
Jeb Bush has a very uncharacteristic position for Republicans and conservatives: he supports Common Core and immigration reform, this is not things that will be good for America.
Rand Paul is a really good candidate. He and Elizabeth Warren, but I do not believe that Democrats will allow to her to run for presidency, because it would mean that Hillary Clinton's will lose her gender advantage.
My usual reaction to columns about the future is to find ways to pooh-pooh the predictions and come off wry and world weary. But, Tom, you are making a piercing, compelling case that all production, good and services, what the IT folks call "content," is being ripped from those in charge of accessing it, the barbarians at the gate, as it were.
What happens when you can't get s room, a taxi, or a loaf of bread except through a portal husbanded by a three-headed dog of pure entrepreneurship? I honestly don't know.
What happens when you can't get s room, a taxi, or a loaf of bread except through a portal husbanded by a three-headed dog of pure entrepreneurship? I honestly don't know.
1
Blah! Blah! Blah! The sky has been falling ever since man discovered fire, made a spear, killed and ate something, planted crops, settled down and coveted another persons land, water, men, women and children.
Our leaders are an entertaining mix of articulate and inarticulate mugging buffoons, clowns and actors because that is who we vote for. Congress makes no laws. Congress does not govern. POTUS speaks with a forked tongue with unblinking cold eyes and an icy heart with venomous fangs that target and kill even American citizens without mercy, morality or legality.
This is not the age of W.B. Yeats " beast slouching towards Bethlehem." There are 7.3 billion of us in nearly 200 nations. With a billion each not having access to either clean fresh drinking water or sanitary sewage garbage water disposal. While 800 million humans are starving or malnourished. Yet, there are more of us living longer and better than ever before. But the climate is changing. The land, water and air are moving.
And what good are Uber, Facebook, Twitter, Alibaba, Airbnb , POTUS Obama and the U.S. Congress to humanity specifically or in general?
The ethical admonition of the medical profession is to do no harm. While the legal profession requires avoiding even the appearance of any impropriety. Perhaps it is best that we be tied up in inane trivia and distracted lest we do some serious lasting harm to ourselves, each other or our planet. Who does not like a circus or a magic show?
Our leaders are an entertaining mix of articulate and inarticulate mugging buffoons, clowns and actors because that is who we vote for. Congress makes no laws. Congress does not govern. POTUS speaks with a forked tongue with unblinking cold eyes and an icy heart with venomous fangs that target and kill even American citizens without mercy, morality or legality.
This is not the age of W.B. Yeats " beast slouching towards Bethlehem." There are 7.3 billion of us in nearly 200 nations. With a billion each not having access to either clean fresh drinking water or sanitary sewage garbage water disposal. While 800 million humans are starving or malnourished. Yet, there are more of us living longer and better than ever before. But the climate is changing. The land, water and air are moving.
And what good are Uber, Facebook, Twitter, Alibaba, Airbnb , POTUS Obama and the U.S. Congress to humanity specifically or in general?
The ethical admonition of the medical profession is to do no harm. While the legal profession requires avoiding even the appearance of any impropriety. Perhaps it is best that we be tied up in inane trivia and distracted lest we do some serious lasting harm to ourselves, each other or our planet. Who does not like a circus or a magic show?
1
Uber will just prove again that the taxi industry has to be regulated if drivers are to make a living wage.
4
This is a tip of the iceberg column, bringing up some very big and important changes not generally addressed by anyone. OK, fine. What is missing is the rest of the iceberg: analysis of what these changes mean, where things are going as a result including what further innovations and changes are possibly ahead, and what to do about them.
The description of disorder and disruption is indeed scary and challenging. Nothing is owned or produced by the likes of Uber or AirBnb, so like our infrastructure, we are milking old assets without providing replacements.
This will lead to lousier taxis and deteriorating hotels, with evry man fighting for himself economically. In effect we will soon have both a first world disorder as well as a third world disorder.
Regarding the presidential candidates, it would seem that Clinton should more appropriately be group with those with ambition, and not much else.
This will lead to lousier taxis and deteriorating hotels, with evry man fighting for himself economically. In effect we will soon have both a first world disorder as well as a third world disorder.
Regarding the presidential candidates, it would seem that Clinton should more appropriately be group with those with ambition, and not much else.
2
As powerful as they are, Presidential candidates have one thing in common with the rest of us : their day only last 24Hours, 18 of which they spend fundraising and talking with their handlers.
The "Thinking"part of their job is left to Think Tanks( bankrolled by corporations and lobbies).
The "Thinking"part of their job is left to Think Tanks( bankrolled by corporations and lobbies).
1
Very depressing. Reminds me of Gresham's Law, that bad money drives out good money, that the coin is devalued. How can Thailand cope with refugees? Look at Italy's experience with African and Middle Eastern refugees, with Muslims killing Christians on board their overcrowded boats. The cultural coin may not withstand such devaluation. Chaos beckons.
Corporate war, with corporate armies instead of nations, will become the norm, if it hasn't already started. A new form of cannon fodder, with the vast unemployed being conscripted in battles fought on seas and plains of Os and 1s, churning out battle algorithms from "war factories" in San Jose and Manhattan and Beijing. Seizing access to power sources to feed the war machines will become the new Pearl Harbor and Hiroshima, to be soon followed by death camps and human-engineered disasters of unimaginable horror until reaching a new Eden: 0101.
1
The whole US system is built around avoiding any substantive public discussions of anything. We don't do planning and thinking here.
3
But we once did: FDR with the new deal; IKE with the national highway system; JFK with school improvement and the space program;LBJ with medicare and the civil rights movement; Nixon with clean air and clean water acts and the EPA; even Carter tried to take us to a new energy era. It is since St Ronnie that we have segued into a nation of entertainment and sports obsessed fools, to overt and extreme materialism, to a lack of central planning, because "government is the enemy." Even Obama has lauded Reagan when it is well past time to call him what he was-- a failure for We the People.
1
As always, we have waited until the last possible minute to start to "deal" with existential and quasi-existential problems such as climate change and displaced workers. And even as we approach the wall, we seem to be more interested in Letterman's retirement and Brady's suspension. We are not a serious people. And it takes a serious people to confront serious challenges.
4
Presidents are like the proverbial dog that catches the car. Once they've got there, then what? The race has been everything until that point and they've said what had to be said before the nomination. In South Carolina you say x and in New Hampshire to say y. And in the general election a broader and vaguer image is pitched. How do the candidates keep strategy distinct from policy? Too often they don't know the difference. So great, the dog is in the driver's seat? What's to be done? First and foremost, there's the effort to be re-elected. Six years in, after the re-election, the campaign shifts again. Now it's the "legacy." Get as much done as possible and start loading the trucks for the presidential library. The campaign never ends and what happens along the way--well, that's a presidency.
3
I believe, disruptions in the "world of disorder" cannot be managed. There is no rational way to deal with it. However, I do believe that there is a reaction to every action and that leads to synthesis. The disorder arose from the actions we have collectively taken for a long period of time. A reaction to these disorders are will arise organically and that will lead to synthesis and new order. We, however, have no inkling of what that would be. So talking about them may not be very productive. The only thing we can do is to try to minimize the immediate hardships and wait for the New World Order to emerge out of the chaos. I am an optimist.
2
If complexity is cheap, then simplicity is expensive. Clean water and air are fast becoming items not affordable by the 3rd world.
2
The part of Mr. Friedman's that most resonated with me was his dividing the world into order and disorder and its not just the impoverished third world that but the "disordered" parts of our own country that most concern me. After seeking to understand and (hopefully) help the "disordered" for half a century I learned that despite the political buffoons and their cronies who exploit or ignore them intact communities are amazingly resilient and have taken their fates into their own hands. An example: in America there is a vast invisible banking system in place run by immigrants where small groups of of a dozen or save $100 a week and with their savings fix their car, pay a medical bill, pay ahead on their rent, send their children to college and build their businesses even though they may be undocumented. They have much to teach politicians about the power of discipline and mutual support when the world is contrived so that the rich take all. See "In Their Own Hands: How Savings Groups are Revolutionizing Development." www.intheirownhands.com
1
Marshall McLuhan nailed it years ago. "The medium is the message". We are now down to 140 characters of explaining policy. And, you, Mr. Friedman, have nailed in this column what everyone is afraid to say. There are truly only 5 empty chairs for 10 people when the music stops.
Neither Jeb, Hillary, or Tom, Dick and Harry can settle a world down that is too populated for natural resources and is being simultaneously replaced by a mathematical algorithm. Times are to blame more than any leader.
ISIS is beyond disgusting, but you can't help but wait for a bit of schadenfreude when they actually get the caliphate they want. Then what? They can't outsource terror that began as outsourced terror. They actually might have to govern. I don't care how devout, no one is going to be on board without electricity, water, food, schools and some border/order for very long.
Pray to Allah, God, Moses, Wall Street, you still have to step over the decaying humans washing up in the Oceans and on the streets.
I actually get 1500 characters to get my point across. Heaven forbid our candidates can't sum up serious issues in 140.
Neither Jeb, Hillary, or Tom, Dick and Harry can settle a world down that is too populated for natural resources and is being simultaneously replaced by a mathematical algorithm. Times are to blame more than any leader.
ISIS is beyond disgusting, but you can't help but wait for a bit of schadenfreude when they actually get the caliphate they want. Then what? They can't outsource terror that began as outsourced terror. They actually might have to govern. I don't care how devout, no one is going to be on board without electricity, water, food, schools and some border/order for very long.
Pray to Allah, God, Moses, Wall Street, you still have to step over the decaying humans washing up in the Oceans and on the streets.
I actually get 1500 characters to get my point across. Heaven forbid our candidates can't sum up serious issues in 140.
3
This article seem to blame the people for seeking greener pastures. Why should they be restricted to "their home land?" And, not allowed to cross "international borders?" Who drew these "international border lines?" Rely on the old empires, colonies and dictators to control these migrants." Who gave them the mandate to "control?" No human (nor other living things on this planet) belong to anyone or have the right to control anyone. A smart set (selfish) people think they do, and prevent the creatures of this earth including the humans, animals and all living beings from being free to pursue their dreams including movement to any place on earth. It may sound unreasonable to those who have a "place to call their own." But not to those who were born free some place and want to pursue their instincts, dreams and aspirations. Shouldn't those lucky enough to have a secure place "of their own"make room for those seeking such freedom. There is sufficient room on this earth to accommodate all those who are migrating. What is needed is commitment by those with a place under the sun to help those with none to find a place. It is our moral obligation and duty.
3
well you can welcome them into your little piece of the world mister. I don't want them here in CA where over-population by third world immigrants has already destroyed our environment.
Most predictions of the future turn out to be wrong. So let's not waste a lot of time speculating about how technology "may" impact work.
Let's talk seriously about what has already happened. We now live in an economy characterized by growing inequality and declining mobility. People finally are becoming aware of how the socioeconomic model has changed. It's dangerous because it opens the door for all kinds of demagoguery.
We have government, and campaigns, based on public relations and those PR folks are very good at manipulating opinion. Sadly, the news media are too interested in being entertaining to offer serious information and social media so far seem to work against thoughtful debate of anything.
What the candidates say is carefully designed and focus-group tested to advance a "message." There's an industry dedicated to the process of elections and that makes a mockery of democracy. It's certainly not just a problem in emerging economies.
The idea that technology can free people for more creative work, if they are trained, is a cruel hoax. We need a serious discussion of what to do about the millions who will not get good jobs no matter what effort they make. We also need more discussion about how to deal with the dislocations caused by global trade.
Competition to be "business-friendly" will lead to a downward spiral for most workers. "Platforms of trust" are unlikely to change that.
Let's talk seriously about what has already happened. We now live in an economy characterized by growing inequality and declining mobility. People finally are becoming aware of how the socioeconomic model has changed. It's dangerous because it opens the door for all kinds of demagoguery.
We have government, and campaigns, based on public relations and those PR folks are very good at manipulating opinion. Sadly, the news media are too interested in being entertaining to offer serious information and social media so far seem to work against thoughtful debate of anything.
What the candidates say is carefully designed and focus-group tested to advance a "message." There's an industry dedicated to the process of elections and that makes a mockery of democracy. It's certainly not just a problem in emerging economies.
The idea that technology can free people for more creative work, if they are trained, is a cruel hoax. We need a serious discussion of what to do about the millions who will not get good jobs no matter what effort they make. We also need more discussion about how to deal with the dislocations caused by global trade.
Competition to be "business-friendly" will lead to a downward spiral for most workers. "Platforms of trust" are unlikely to change that.
4
"But here’s the rub: We don’t know what to do."
Well, I do, and I suspect you do too but, like our politicians, are afraid to say it. "We" need to stop having babies.
Every problem you described is caused from a mismatch from the number of people needed and the number of people available. Whether it is in the workforce, or on the field, our world has excess human capacity. Resource wars, climate change, drought in California, doesn't matter, the answer is the same, too many people.
We are living through a Malthusian moment in history. The only surprise is that it has happened for reasons that have little to do with food. No wonder the candidates don't want to tell the electorate the truth, who ever got elected doing that?
Well, I do, and I suspect you do too but, like our politicians, are afraid to say it. "We" need to stop having babies.
Every problem you described is caused from a mismatch from the number of people needed and the number of people available. Whether it is in the workforce, or on the field, our world has excess human capacity. Resource wars, climate change, drought in California, doesn't matter, the answer is the same, too many people.
We are living through a Malthusian moment in history. The only surprise is that it has happened for reasons that have little to do with food. No wonder the candidates don't want to tell the electorate the truth, who ever got elected doing that?
4
The future belongs to whoever shows up. Someone needs to stop having babies, but I would submit that the question has to do the ratio of children being born into the "world of disorder" vs. the "world of order".
The planet appears to be past its carrying capacity. The oceans are filled with trash, the aquifers are going dry, and huge numbers of people are displaced. It would be nice to see some sort of huge technological leap solve our problems at this point, but there is little evidence for this happening.
If you are adrift in the ocean in a lifeboat, and have space for only a few more people, who do you want on that lifeboat with you? Definitely productive people with skills, integrity, a conscience and an orientation towards working together for the common good.
In other words, not the current crop of U.S. presidential aspirants.
The planet appears to be past its carrying capacity. The oceans are filled with trash, the aquifers are going dry, and huge numbers of people are displaced. It would be nice to see some sort of huge technological leap solve our problems at this point, but there is little evidence for this happening.
If you are adrift in the ocean in a lifeboat, and have space for only a few more people, who do you want on that lifeboat with you? Definitely productive people with skills, integrity, a conscience and an orientation towards working together for the common good.
In other words, not the current crop of U.S. presidential aspirants.
Mr. Friedman, take a hard look at the Republican line-up for 2016 and tell me with a straight face that any of these candidates are intellectually interested or capable of talking to history. If any of these candidates get elected, we are history.
3
The geopolitical aspect of this is the byproduct of failed states to the degree that the result, the teeming masses of refugees who have fled just to stay alive, is certainly untenable for the rest of the world to sustain. So that must be solved eventually as a humanitarian problem, but politicians can ignore those (like Darfur). The successes mentioned, like Uber, Alibaba, Facebook, and Airbnb are trifles really, since they're either just a more affordable way to provide a service that already existed, operated as they are by people on the fringe of the economy, or are a couple of organizations that are designed provide recreation, more than a purposeful necessity. So those are out of the realm of most presidents.
Friedman errs on the question of "what's worth owning." For most now, it's "what can I afford", which is clearly significantly less than what it used to be. What to do with the millions who will be put out of work over the next 20 years, and will also be able to afford a lot less, is another question Friedman notes that certainly deserves some scrutiny from presidential candidates.
There is plenty of work to be done in the world, and the need to recognize the imperative nature of higher education, and high skill construction and trade jobs worldwide is significant. Obama is trying to guide America on this track - Hillary will as well, picking up on the health care success. The others probably won't care enough to have a plan, or don't have the foresight.
Friedman errs on the question of "what's worth owning." For most now, it's "what can I afford", which is clearly significantly less than what it used to be. What to do with the millions who will be put out of work over the next 20 years, and will also be able to afford a lot less, is another question Friedman notes that certainly deserves some scrutiny from presidential candidates.
There is plenty of work to be done in the world, and the need to recognize the imperative nature of higher education, and high skill construction and trade jobs worldwide is significant. Obama is trying to guide America on this track - Hillary will as well, picking up on the health care success. The others probably won't care enough to have a plan, or don't have the foresight.
"Most [failed states] are incapable of democratic self-governance." Equally worrisome is the growing evidence that we, in America, are squandering our own capacity for representative self-rule.
When the nation that rocked the cradle of democracy itself races to an ever-lower common denominator of governance, the problem reaches much farther than its presidential candidates' refusal to engage courageously or intelligently. The whole world is in trouble.
But then, from trouble emerges challenge and, one must hope, from challenge, leadership.
When the nation that rocked the cradle of democracy itself races to an ever-lower common denominator of governance, the problem reaches much farther than its presidential candidates' refusal to engage courageously or intelligently. The whole world is in trouble.
But then, from trouble emerges challenge and, one must hope, from challenge, leadership.
3
Sensible assessment of our world, as Galeano did in his book "The world is upside down". Of course, nobody knows the future, but if the present is any guide, brute force may come back to haunt us, worse if combined with raiders of financial institutions where greed commands a prominent place at the table. We already have arms dealers from the most well developed countries, selling them to the poorest, so they can go on killing any legitimate dreams of peace and order. You mentioned Trotsky, to see what can be done to even think of a future; let me mention Louis Blanc, and popularized by Karl Marx, as the most equitable solution: "To each according to his needs, from each according to his talents and means".
2
Oh Tom, will you ever learn? I suppose not--it would mean writing less and thinking more. We have 17 months of so to go to the election and you expect the front runner to put all her cards on the table for Fox et al to trash now?
Obama once said he knows how to bring it in the fourth quarter. I suggest Hillary has learned that lesson. But, Tom, you are in America where patience is not a virtue.
Obama once said he knows how to bring it in the fourth quarter. I suggest Hillary has learned that lesson. But, Tom, you are in America where patience is not a virtue.
2
When are the American people going to revolt, violently, against these lying politicians who are asking support to be their "leaders"?
1
It's already started. That's what Ferguson and Baltimore were really about. That was the Occupy movement. But the media blasts and belittles the participants and the police come in with heir military gear and quash them, and then it goes away. For now.
1
What we need is an app that actually creates work rather than destroying it.
Angie's List (although I am not a member) seems like it's going in the right direction. It puts together analog people who want analog jobs done right with analog job doers.
Maybe there could be an app to identify jobs that need doing, and then our government could use it to get them done--oh, never mind, we don't pay for anything any more. Might have to have some tax revenue for that to pay the workers. And that would destroy jobs.
Angie's List (although I am not a member) seems like it's going in the right direction. It puts together analog people who want analog jobs done right with analog job doers.
Maybe there could be an app to identify jobs that need doing, and then our government could use it to get them done--oh, never mind, we don't pay for anything any more. Might have to have some tax revenue for that to pay the workers. And that would destroy jobs.
2
What Friedman describes so breathlessly is really an economy of middle-men. AirBnB, Uber, etc. That's all they are. Yes, they're incredibly convenient - I've used both services more than once - but I wonder about the long-term value of placing so much of our tech elite's focus on building companies that are basically little more than another layer between one's money and a service. Middle-men.
Here's a question I'd love to see all presidential candidates answer:
The most prevalent occupation in the entire nation is that of truck driver. It is probable that in about ten years time, self-driving trucks will be operational in our nations highways.
What happens to the hundreds of thousands (millions?) of suddenly displaced working-class folks who no longer had a job? The automation and outsourcing of manufacturing wreaked havoc on the legions who depended on factory work for a decent working/middle class living. What happens in the near-term when it's service oriented working-class jobs that are done away with?
Yes, technological innovation will also begin to eat up into middle and upper income jobs, as Friedman suggests. But it's not done wrecking lower-income jobs.
(Incidentally, I used to think the idea of Guaranteed Basic Income was a bit too far-fetched. Now I think it might eventually be inevitable.)
Here's a question I'd love to see all presidential candidates answer:
The most prevalent occupation in the entire nation is that of truck driver. It is probable that in about ten years time, self-driving trucks will be operational in our nations highways.
What happens to the hundreds of thousands (millions?) of suddenly displaced working-class folks who no longer had a job? The automation and outsourcing of manufacturing wreaked havoc on the legions who depended on factory work for a decent working/middle class living. What happens in the near-term when it's service oriented working-class jobs that are done away with?
Yes, technological innovation will also begin to eat up into middle and upper income jobs, as Friedman suggests. But it's not done wrecking lower-income jobs.
(Incidentally, I used to think the idea of Guaranteed Basic Income was a bit too far-fetched. Now I think it might eventually be inevitable.)
What will happen to no-longer-needed truck drivers? Same as surplus office workers, middle managers, publishing workers, factory workers and so on -- unemployment, then welfare and if you are clever enough, SSDI for the rest of your life.
We already have a Guaranteed Basic Income -- welfare -- and for the clever/lucky, fake SSDI. It's ridiculously easy to claim ("my back hurts when I sit or stand!") and nobody every checks back to see how you are. Something like 7% of the total US working population (people 18-64) are now on SSDI.
We already have a Guaranteed Basic Income -- welfare -- and for the clever/lucky, fake SSDI. It's ridiculously easy to claim ("my back hurts when I sit or stand!") and nobody every checks back to see how you are. Something like 7% of the total US working population (people 18-64) are now on SSDI.
Lets see, China wants to spend 250 billion building a railroad across the Amazon. We just spent 1 to 3 trillion blowing up the mideast. China is building a canal in our back yard. Does China have a Marshall Plan for Latin and south America? One of our parties wants to offer us another war, this time with Iran. I say give me platitudes, cliche's, phony patriotism and some codified hate speech and I'll vote for you. Also lets contract women's reproductive rights and get rid of health care for low wage workers and deport all those illegal fruit pickers and build fortress America starting with higher walls.
As for the science of global warming lets double down on armageddon and export some more coal to China. Also don't forget right to work laws. Unions take away your freedom.
Oh yes, the issues of our times.
As for the science of global warming lets double down on armageddon and export some more coal to China. Also don't forget right to work laws. Unions take away your freedom.
Oh yes, the issues of our times.
1
Candidates today are not about problem solving. Candidates today are all about fund raising.
If solutions are offered to solve problems, probably half the funding for the upcoming election is lost. Therefore, it is all about fundraising.
Furthermore, how can problems be solved with a totally dysfunctional congress. Democracy is lost when compromise is a bad word.
If solutions are offered to solve problems, probably half the funding for the upcoming election is lost. Therefore, it is all about fundraising.
Furthermore, how can problems be solved with a totally dysfunctional congress. Democracy is lost when compromise is a bad word.
4
Excellent synopsis of the circus our primary system has become with very little discussion of the key issues and a lot of pure demagoguery to excite the masses on "talking points". Friedman just highlights the massive global problems facing any President:
-Environmental catastrophies- we see every day reports of global warming reaching a tipping point with huge portions of Antartica mlting and disappearing;Species become extinct on a daily basis.
-Overpopulation of the earth with growth from around 1 billion in 1800 to over 8 billion currently with resulting scarcity of food and water;
Overdependence on electricity and technology- one huge solar flare or an e-bomb could bring our civilization to an end as we know it;
Worldwide breakdown of political structures and emergence of terrorism and religious fanatacism as the dominant force of political expression.Just look at the Middle East;
Massive refugee populations attempting to join the more civilized and stable countries. Five million Palestinians as permanent refugees and wards of UNWRA with US providing major subsidies and the GOP and Israeli right wing pretend they do not exist. Millions more become refugees in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya. Who will feed and house them?
Nuclear proliferation- North Korea defies the world along with Iran and Israel with little we can do.
Not a word on any of the above from the GOP candidates or Hilary because these are not acceptable talking points. We are in serious trouble.
-Environmental catastrophies- we see every day reports of global warming reaching a tipping point with huge portions of Antartica mlting and disappearing;Species become extinct on a daily basis.
-Overpopulation of the earth with growth from around 1 billion in 1800 to over 8 billion currently with resulting scarcity of food and water;
Overdependence on electricity and technology- one huge solar flare or an e-bomb could bring our civilization to an end as we know it;
Worldwide breakdown of political structures and emergence of terrorism and religious fanatacism as the dominant force of political expression.Just look at the Middle East;
Massive refugee populations attempting to join the more civilized and stable countries. Five million Palestinians as permanent refugees and wards of UNWRA with US providing major subsidies and the GOP and Israeli right wing pretend they do not exist. Millions more become refugees in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya. Who will feed and house them?
Nuclear proliferation- North Korea defies the world along with Iran and Israel with little we can do.
Not a word on any of the above from the GOP candidates or Hilary because these are not acceptable talking points. We are in serious trouble.
2
I'm afraid the dance of the sugar plum fairies is in full swing. Looking for substance from a presidential candidate presupposes a level of honesty that simply doesn't exist on the campaign trail. That's because the average voter is so ill-informed that he wouldn't recognize honesty if it gave him a lap dance.
3
"But here's the rub, we don't know what to do."
You sure got that right Mr. Friedman. And little of what you describe here in your column makes much sense.
Back in the early days of this century Jans Jacobs wrote a book predicting a dark time ahead for the US. Here is what Amazon has to say about it:
"... the author of The Death and Life of Great American Cities ... convincingly argues that as agrarianism gives way to a technology-based future, we stand on the brink of a new dark age, a period of cultural collapse. Jacobs pinpoints five pillars of our culture that are in serious decay: community and family; higher education; the effective practice of science; taxation, and government; and the self-regulation of the learned professions."
Technology is seen as the great savior, mistakenly. In my field, Architecture, which Jacobs knew well, technology has given us great piles of discumbobulation, all enabled by the computer. Meanwhile the cities and towns in which these monuments to nothing sit, fall into decay. And, of course, every prospective homeowner knows exactly what he or she wants - its all on line in glowing color. The organizational logic behind the images is, of course, missing.
And in medicine, doctors are now regularly second guessed by patients who browse the web looking for their symptoms. And who is making the big money in medicine? It's - the administrators! The Tech guys!
If you don't think things are darkening here you must be wearing Google glass.
You sure got that right Mr. Friedman. And little of what you describe here in your column makes much sense.
Back in the early days of this century Jans Jacobs wrote a book predicting a dark time ahead for the US. Here is what Amazon has to say about it:
"... the author of The Death and Life of Great American Cities ... convincingly argues that as agrarianism gives way to a technology-based future, we stand on the brink of a new dark age, a period of cultural collapse. Jacobs pinpoints five pillars of our culture that are in serious decay: community and family; higher education; the effective practice of science; taxation, and government; and the self-regulation of the learned professions."
Technology is seen as the great savior, mistakenly. In my field, Architecture, which Jacobs knew well, technology has given us great piles of discumbobulation, all enabled by the computer. Meanwhile the cities and towns in which these monuments to nothing sit, fall into decay. And, of course, every prospective homeowner knows exactly what he or she wants - its all on line in glowing color. The organizational logic behind the images is, of course, missing.
And in medicine, doctors are now regularly second guessed by patients who browse the web looking for their symptoms. And who is making the big money in medicine? It's - the administrators! The Tech guys!
If you don't think things are darkening here you must be wearing Google glass.
2
And a good part of the problem is shared within journalism, now that it, too, has gone all digitalzy. What about this comments section - how professional is THAT? And then the comment reviewers - how professional are THEY?
(If they approach professionalism they will allow this in print; if not, it is off into the ether. Gone, like the staff at Charlie Hebdo, another victim of the current narrow-mindedness of the times...Times?)
(If they approach professionalism they will allow this in print; if not, it is off into the ether. Gone, like the staff at Charlie Hebdo, another victim of the current narrow-mindedness of the times...Times?)
Great column, but the fact that no one in the campaign is addressing the issues is no surprise. Republicans can be defined as deniers of all change. And Mrs. Clinton -- who probably sees these issues well -- is saying no more than she needs to.
1
Excellent article but you focus on the candidates that have large corporate funding and they want to maintain their status quo, not face the amazing issues you enumerated. Clinton, Bush, Rubio are not courageous. Bernie Sanders is much more of a courageous candidate than having an ideology--he recognizes and addresses the issues. Of course, there is the most courageous and highest humility potential candidate of them all: Senator Elizabeth Warren, who could certainly lead a populist revolution in this country and make the Founders smile in their graves.
1
Really after the flash of Obama and the dream we can change things. We have gone to the other extreme of 2016 being who can bore us the most wins. From Jeb letting us know he is not really the smart Bush to Hillary the silent candidate. We are in for an election where most folks would rather watch paint dry. Watching a show today a room full of Dems who support Hillary was asked name something she has accomplished. The silence in the room was so thick you could cut it with a knife. No one could put their finger on one thing she had accomplished or one thing she was ready to go wall for. Still they all said they would vote for her. Jeb has the money and the name but he finds walking and chewing bubble gum trying. Warren sits out of the ring throwing darts at everyone but not willing to put in any skin in the game. Rubio was for it before he was against it. With the Clintons making more in two speeches than most folks make in a lifetime I fail to see how she sells herself as the champion of the little people. Sometime ago I was a fan of Warren but recently I have wavered. If Warren believed so strongly in what she says she should put some skin in the game. For her to sit it out so Hillary has a walk in the park I find troubling. Is gender more important than beliefs to Warren or does she think her job is just to be the flamethrower? Seems like the one who is the most boring is going to win in 2016. Maybe we will get another Harding, Taft or Coolidge. Um!
1
You are exactly right about how the major candidates don't want to engage with the day's major issues. A telling example of this is that if you go to Hillary Clinton's official campaign website, there is no obvious FAQ section outlining her stand on the issues. The menu link leads to sections called "bio", "events", "states", "volunteer" but nothing about her stance on anything substantive. With her warchest and top-notch strategists, this cannot be by accident.
But... I can't but think that this will backfire. Voters do not want the choice between empty suits and hollow men and women. We need more than the political equivalent of Axact education websites--slickly marketed but housing nothing of substance.
But... I can't but think that this will backfire. Voters do not want the choice between empty suits and hollow men and women. We need more than the political equivalent of Axact education websites--slickly marketed but housing nothing of substance.
Plumbers, carpenters, electricians, nurses - the wave of the future. But who can pay? The Koch boys may have missed that in their gilded fenced world. This despite owning (and selling now) a house where the aquifer feeds chemically polluted water sufficiently toxic that dishwashers are discouraged.
3
You forgot the wealthy financial people who make nothing but have wealth that allows them to control politics in the US.
6
In a perfect world Bernie Sanders is best suited to be the President of US of A in 2016 with my vote. But we live far from a perfect world where greed and money makes the power to get the vote.
Rand Paul should not be included in the same sentence with Senator Sanders Tom, he is a flip flopping Republican.
So ultimately it is Hillary Clinton .
Rand Paul should not be included in the same sentence with Senator Sanders Tom, he is a flip flopping Republican.
So ultimately it is Hillary Clinton .
1
Great column Tom. When I read your columns, I feel that you are distilling the current issues and presenting them lucidly. Here is what I wonder. Are the current Presidential candidates brilliant enough to think about and dare to solve the issues and the challenges you describe? Are they courageous enough? Are they free enough from their donors? Or are they mired in their pasts and so caught up in their ambitions that they cannot, do not want to, or will not see the needs of the future. I hope one candidate will break the mold and rise up...let one of them start by sounding intelligent and caring. Whether they truly are those things can wait a bit.
It would clarify the thinking of Americans if the election next year were between Bernie Sanders and Rand Paul. Substance is far more important than process.
As to change, there certainly is a lot of it going on, but there ever was. Also, some things are constant, and among them are human nature, greed and wars. Were it not so!
Therefore, the world needs leaders who are problem solvers, and not ideologues or war mongers.
I wish humility was the first value taught to children everywhere.
As to change, there certainly is a lot of it going on, but there ever was. Also, some things are constant, and among them are human nature, greed and wars. Were it not so!
Therefore, the world needs leaders who are problem solvers, and not ideologues or war mongers.
I wish humility was the first value taught to children everywhere.
2
"the thinking of Americans?" Oxymoron.
Mr. Friedman, your points are well made. That's the good news that will be defeated by the bad news. Our politicians are fueled by ideology, not purpose. Thoughtful positions about the future of our planet's livability (to throw out just a single issue) have been muted by ideology. The benighted Right consider only the cost, the expense, who benefits )and who dies not). Our political "process" has been turned over to candidates controlled by the oligarchy. Hillary Clinton doesn't know where to begin because a false start may sabotage her campaign. She's beholden to the money that enslaves us. Republicans and Tea Party operatives succeed because they emphasize divisions and resentments. They wish to re-calibrate the functions of government, drastically curtailing the powers of the executive while turning over more authority to the legislative and judicial branches, both of which have become (Citizens United, anyone?) the tentacles of a sinister, cancerous repression. Technological innovation necessarily requires an educated electorate, not a network of ingrown, isolated communities peopled by those who long for either the End Times or who wish the clock stopped stopped in 1860.
The power in platforms is old news as books have already been written about the subject and it has been discussed ad nauseam at conferences for almost 10 years.
2
Tom, so glad to see that you finally realize that we (i.e. USA) are not the masters of the universe that is the earth. That we co-exist with other nations. And that military intervention, occupation, meddling politics etc are no longer means that are applicable in the 21st century. That these are post colonial post imperialism times. Phew. Better late than never, Tom. Now can you please drill that message to our congress people, especially Neocon brainwashed Republicans? Do us a favor, next time you report on refugees of nations fleeing their countries...ask why. Ask why we continue to fight wars. Ask why we won't become friends with Iran and still remain friends with the largest financier of all Muslim extremist, viz Saudi Arabia? Both Saudis and Iran are fully capable to disappearing the ISIS movement, but they won't. They would rather hire mercenary America to do their dirty job, because wars create jobs, fuel economy, create tensions in the world that profit some who continue to grow richer while refugees drown and live like animals in wastelands.
3
Excellent article. My first thought concerned the relationship between our 320 million +/- Americans and our elected leaders. Can the Republicans continue to preach smaller government in the face of a growing population and declining work opportunities? If 47% of U.S. Jobs fall to smart machines, the job market will be in shambles.
Perhaps the experts Mr. Friedman meets with and listens to have solutions and if so, I hope he writes about that soon. For the record, I am 78 years-old and the job future is the concern and worry of my heirs.
Of course if we continue to try and be nation shapers there will be plenty of jobs in the armed forces but that sounds almost like a horror story.
Perhaps the experts Mr. Friedman meets with and listens to have solutions and if so, I hope he writes about that soon. For the record, I am 78 years-old and the job future is the concern and worry of my heirs.
Of course if we continue to try and be nation shapers there will be plenty of jobs in the armed forces but that sounds almost like a horror story.
1
Dear Mr. Friedman,
Want to know the future? Go look at the past.
A Russian 'strong man' moves his armies westward: been there, done that.
Germany is the 'powerhouse' of the European Community: in the 20th Century that was called WW1 and WW2.
The Mid-East is in the throes of 'revolution' (Okay, "awakenings' or 'springs'): move along, nothing new here.
China is building not only fleets of ships but "islands" to support them: I'll grant 'island building' is a new twist but, again, China has done giant fleets before.
Africa is a mess: Europe discovers Africa and turns it into a mess starting with the Romans and continuing with just about everyone else (Leopold's ghosts anyone?).
So relax, this is the same old ground just reported, face booked, tweeted and texted a little better!
Want to know the future? Go look at the past.
A Russian 'strong man' moves his armies westward: been there, done that.
Germany is the 'powerhouse' of the European Community: in the 20th Century that was called WW1 and WW2.
The Mid-East is in the throes of 'revolution' (Okay, "awakenings' or 'springs'): move along, nothing new here.
China is building not only fleets of ships but "islands" to support them: I'll grant 'island building' is a new twist but, again, China has done giant fleets before.
Africa is a mess: Europe discovers Africa and turns it into a mess starting with the Romans and continuing with just about everyone else (Leopold's ghosts anyone?).
So relax, this is the same old ground just reported, face booked, tweeted and texted a little better!
Points well made. Could be his best piece ever, mostly because he doesn't spin off into a defense of the flat world, or try to walk his theory back.
1
As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton made time time to have weekly meetings with her young technology people often to the consternation of many senior advisors so that the creaky State Department could start " digital diplomacy". Ambassadors and key staff members had to take classes in new technologies.
I think Mrs Clinton is better prepared to deal with the challenges you refer to in this thoughtful commentary than any of the GOP candidates.
I think Mrs Clinton is better prepared to deal with the challenges you refer to in this thoughtful commentary than any of the GOP candidates.
2
Other than Hillary associated with Bills legacy, and current popularity, Hillary is running because she will be our first female President. Jeb is trying to cast an image of being his own man, but he is associated with his brother, not his father. The rest are all so rans.
Let's just blame Obama and be done with it.
2
It is hard to focus on the future when the present is a constant threat. What politics has turned out to be is a constant threat to the present which keeps the future out of reach for most of us. Think about the present with the threat and fear of the present you have groups fighting with each other just to keep the scrapes that are available. If you think about just one aspect of the present, "entitlement programs" that everyone contributes to being constantly threatened by the political class, the future doesn't seem possible to comprehend as anything but dark, very dark. Make the present secure and all eyes will be on the future. Make the present difficult and the past seems inviting.
2
Goodwin's observation, “Uber, the world’s largest taxi company, owns no vehicles. Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner, creates no content. Alibaba, the most valuable retailer, has no inventory. And Airbnb, the world’s largest accommodation provider, owns no real estate. Something interesting is happening.” is just the tip of the iceberg that is sinking our economy.
We have gone from a productive society to a transaction society. FIRE (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate) has become the dominant sector in our economy.
As with Uber, Facebook,Alibaba and Airbnb, Goldman Sachs and other financial behemoths make nothing that contributes to society. Insurance companies are running an actuarial scam, extracting value from society, real estate giants and their associates (title companies, bond insurers, etc) stand in the middle of transactions and siphon off huge sums. None of these "industries" are actually industrious - they produce nothing, except "value" for those who share in the bounty.
Goodwin writes, "Something interesting is happening." I wouldn't use the word "interesting."
We have gone from a productive society to a transaction society. FIRE (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate) has become the dominant sector in our economy.
As with Uber, Facebook,Alibaba and Airbnb, Goldman Sachs and other financial behemoths make nothing that contributes to society. Insurance companies are running an actuarial scam, extracting value from society, real estate giants and their associates (title companies, bond insurers, etc) stand in the middle of transactions and siphon off huge sums. None of these "industries" are actually industrious - they produce nothing, except "value" for those who share in the bounty.
Goodwin writes, "Something interesting is happening." I wouldn't use the word "interesting."
215
By the time that enough of the sheeple wake up to what is happening, it may be too late, or maybe it already is.
It's fine to point out that Uber, Facebook, etc. don't produce physical products or media content, but that shouldn't blind us to the fact that they do in fact contribute something of value to society. That should be obvious with just a little reflection. Any service that immediately connects buyers and sellers is well worth a price. Even insurance companies, which I'm happy to criticize, provide financial stability and sometimes, by leveraging their economy of scale, lower prices (sometimes through improved efficiencies).
1
A true Friedman column: breezy, thought-provoking - and intellectually glib and lazy. Talk about cherry-picked examples! What Uber, Facebook, and AirBnB all have in common is minimal capital investment for 20-somethings that want to make a ton of money as geeks. Not one of these companies is going to find a job for a 40-year-old man with a HS diploma living in Lima Ohio or Lewiston Maine. Are these companies the harbingers, the norm, or the outliers of future employment? Friedman doesn't say.
25
So much focus on external threats, how about California ? It is by itself one of the biggest economies in the world and the garden of America when it comes to your food....and it is running out of water. Is that not a "Clear and present danger? or do we need ISIS to invade California before the media pays it the attention it deserves.
19
The answer is simply that politicians are not elected on the basis of encompassing views and solutions, but on immediate problems and issues, whether real of fictional. Is there a non-issue more visible than one's sex preference or habits? Is there a more absurd revolt than that against the government for providing health coverage for the poor? Is there a more dangerous opposition than to the need to control the warming of the planet? And yet, these (and others) are the issue that move voters. Voters are either not interested or are oblivious of the existence of "big picture" issues.
Remember Stevenson's reply to the supporter who told him that all intelligent people were for him: "That's not enough, I need a majority". That's what our politicians are looking for, that evasive and volatile majority.
Remember Stevenson's reply to the supporter who told him that all intelligent people were for him: "That's not enough, I need a majority". That's what our politicians are looking for, that evasive and volatile majority.
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First column I've read that actually speaks to the vacuum around crucial issues. Thank you. However, one quibble - you left out what is, at least to me, if not the most pressing, certainly the most threatening - climate. Otherwise, a fine column.
36
> “knowledge workers at the middle and the top” may be more threatened than those doing physical work
This from the guy who predicted in "The World is Flat" a decade ago that this same class of jobs wouldn't be able to survive cheap offshoring labor. I imagine that we'll see a repeat of that. Many companies will embrace new technology and some jobs may be lost, some new ones created, but ultimately much to their chagrin business owners will find "knowledge workers" will be hard to replace en masse.
This from the guy who predicted in "The World is Flat" a decade ago that this same class of jobs wouldn't be able to survive cheap offshoring labor. I imagine that we'll see a repeat of that. Many companies will embrace new technology and some jobs may be lost, some new ones created, but ultimately much to their chagrin business owners will find "knowledge workers" will be hard to replace en masse.
4
People are fleeing disorder for order, and only that? What nonsense. People are fleeing North Korea (when they can) and, to a lesser extent, Mainland China -- both of them quite ordered places by most int'l standards. That population movement has nothing to do with ordered v. disordered environmens and more likely has to do with (in the first case) a society's ability to meet basic human needs and (in both examples) those societies inability to foster personal and political freedom.
Once again, Friedman gets blinded by his own ideas and buys into a seemingly elegant, but also irrelevant theory, divorced from the realities of life outside New York.
Once again, Friedman gets blinded by his own ideas and buys into a seemingly elegant, but also irrelevant theory, divorced from the realities of life outside New York.
11
Mike, I think that you reduce the concept of "disorder" simply to control and the two areas you mention are not the usual origin of most of the emigration. Disorder includes no jobs, oppressive regulations,religious conflicts, diseases and the rest of the evils that afflict mankind.
22
Harsh
And by way, not at all compelling when you simply get personal and offer no alternative ideas
And by way, not at all compelling when you simply get personal and offer no alternative ideas
I fear you have a strange view of life in New York. A city of great wealth, order and chaos, much of it is of third-world country quality.
I have been puzzling over this dynamic for a while now. While the characterization is a bit highly colored I think Tom has put his finger on some powerful forces working in the world with no clear out come; the Order versus Disorder drama may turn either to comedy or tragedy. There is no certainty that Disorder will finally be overtaken by Order; certainly ISIS will resist that. Using a different metaphor: entropy is a powerful aspect of any system.
But to the article: my reflection has been around the question of whether our political system and politicians are capable of facing the future Tom has spelled out and I think probably not. Some things are too big and complex for politics, or at least for the electoral politics we practice. This is where transformation, sharp change, systemic shifts all come into the for; all the enemies of political order.
In a sense then we are seeing in American political dialog or debate skilled practitioners of denial negotiating with the future for just another few years of the old way.
But to the article: my reflection has been around the question of whether our political system and politicians are capable of facing the future Tom has spelled out and I think probably not. Some things are too big and complex for politics, or at least for the electoral politics we practice. This is where transformation, sharp change, systemic shifts all come into the for; all the enemies of political order.
In a sense then we are seeing in American political dialog or debate skilled practitioners of denial negotiating with the future for just another few years of the old way.
19
It's interesting to consider these world trends and how they might intrude on our national conversations which are increasingly parochial: limiting abortion, relitigating the role of religion in American secular life, defining the limits of federal government, facing climate change which is coming no matter what, squabbling over funding for highways.
But Mr. Friedman is right: nobody, let alone candidates, are looking at the big picture: America's role in a fractured and fractious world that's desperately attempting to find stasis. Of all the trends listed, these huge displacements of people are the most troublesome--because nobody wants to take responsibility for a world full of fiefdoms, not organized governments.
Our problems seem almost inconsequential in the face of such huge disruptions in work (and its definition) and amorphous, shifting political entities. I agree: nobody is in charge of anything anymore.
For me, it's almost as if the US has been overcome by isolationism by default. Our governments don't understand what's happening overseas and Americans are weary of war (at least some are). We keep offering old solutions to new problems, to no effect.
It would be nice to think the candidates might read this column and get their heads out of the weeds of partisanship, posturing, and self-defense about issues we thought had been settled long ago.
But Mr. Friedman is right: nobody, let alone candidates, are looking at the big picture: America's role in a fractured and fractious world that's desperately attempting to find stasis. Of all the trends listed, these huge displacements of people are the most troublesome--because nobody wants to take responsibility for a world full of fiefdoms, not organized governments.
Our problems seem almost inconsequential in the face of such huge disruptions in work (and its definition) and amorphous, shifting political entities. I agree: nobody is in charge of anything anymore.
For me, it's almost as if the US has been overcome by isolationism by default. Our governments don't understand what's happening overseas and Americans are weary of war (at least some are). We keep offering old solutions to new problems, to no effect.
It would be nice to think the candidates might read this column and get their heads out of the weeds of partisanship, posturing, and self-defense about issues we thought had been settled long ago.
220
Your elected leaders cater to the lowest common denominator
Very few citizens are as bright and informed as you seem to be
Which in the marketplace of vote accumulation makes you unimportant
Ironic yes?
Very few citizens are as bright and informed as you seem to be
Which in the marketplace of vote accumulation makes you unimportant
Ironic yes?
Christine, I agree that it is a parochial distraction of major proportions to reduce the public debate to the topic of abortion. Although, wonder whether the major religions changed their focus on increasing the size of families by negating the topic of birth control & instead advocated wholesale limiting of family size. What is the church espoused the idea that God wants the Earth to remain habitable which requires limiting births & mandating that people use birth control & contraception devices. How many poor & starving people would not have to suffer in a world that welcomes their arrival yet stands by & does nothing to relieve them of their suffering? A typical Rohingya family has from five to twenty eight children all living in camps or ghettos. This is 37% above the Myanmar average. Climate change is going to displace millions of poor people in the next decade according to experts. The US opened up the country of Burma to free trade thanks to President Obama's efforts which will help boost the average citizens standard of living, although it would be advantageous to the health of the planet for all governments to make the connection between a higher standard of living & the resulting impact upon the planet. The US is far from isolationist as witnessed by the terrible interventions in Libya, Iraq & Ukraine coinciding w/ true diplomacy with Iran & Cuba. There is a difference between intervening & crippling in world affairs. The US saved lives during the Ebola outbreak.
1
I disagree. I think Bernie Sanders IS looking at the big picture. Why
is his candidacy being over looked by major columnists?
is his candidacy being over looked by major columnists?
6
Vonnegut and Hanna-Barbera imagined a world where all the work is done by machines.
In Vonnegut's world, the huge factories that employed thousands in '49 now have just two employees, a PhD and his secretary, and the thousands who used to do the work are on workfare digging holes and filling them up, or they are in the military, engaged in senseless wars just to keep them busy.
In Hanna-Barbera's world, like Vonnegut's, there are just two people in each factory, the owner and the one employee whose job is pushing the On and Off button twice a day, but there are enough factories making things like sprockets that everyone has a job.
The political decisions we make will determine if we get a world more like Vonnegut's Player Piano or like Hanna-Barbera's The Jetsons.
And given the crop of candidates likely to win the next election, it's looking like Vonnegut got it right.
In Vonnegut's world, the huge factories that employed thousands in '49 now have just two employees, a PhD and his secretary, and the thousands who used to do the work are on workfare digging holes and filling them up, or they are in the military, engaged in senseless wars just to keep them busy.
In Hanna-Barbera's world, like Vonnegut's, there are just two people in each factory, the owner and the one employee whose job is pushing the On and Off button twice a day, but there are enough factories making things like sprockets that everyone has a job.
The political decisions we make will determine if we get a world more like Vonnegut's Player Piano or like Hanna-Barbera's The Jetsons.
And given the crop of candidates likely to win the next election, it's looking like Vonnegut got it right.
29
Read Toffler for the serious pioneering thinking about the post-work world
Even in the seemingly more optimistic cartoon world of Hanna-Barbera's Jetsons future in which all workers are guaranteed a factory job there is still room for critique. Most startling is the sexual stereotyping of the characters as well as lack of diversity. What happened to all of the Rohingya people of Burma in the Jetsons sanitized world of Tomorrowland? Will the sprocket makers be allowed family leave, equal pay for women, affirmative action programs or extended unemployment leave in case they are injured on the job & suffer from carpal tunnel syndrome?
I remember the Monsanto ride at Disneyland which offered a rosy view of the future. Somehow they left out the part about machines usurping human's jobs or the effects of genetically modified seeds, the use of Round Up herbicide & the “Frankenfoods” of the future ick factor.
I remember the Monsanto ride at Disneyland which offered a rosy view of the future. Somehow they left out the part about machines usurping human's jobs or the effects of genetically modified seeds, the use of Round Up herbicide & the “Frankenfoods” of the future ick factor.
Tommy's columns always have some apparently new ideas, but often miss the forest for the new chainsaws.
His correct diagnosis that most candidates are virtual ostriches, for their subterranean views, misses the key issue of the 2016 election, which is that instead of his projection that, "On geopolitics, we still have great power rivalries, but the most relevant divide in the world will no longer be East-West, capitalist-communist. It will be the World of Order versus the World of Disorder", what we really have, and which only Jim Webb understands, is that "we no longer have great power divides", but a world of a growing Disguised Global Capitalist Empire, only 'posing' as, and HQed in, our faux democratic former country, a world of 'Empire-thinking' elite control, and 'democracy-wishing subjects' who will not long remain so complacently afflicted by the undiagnosed metastasizing cancer of Global Empire.
His correct diagnosis that most candidates are virtual ostriches, for their subterranean views, misses the key issue of the 2016 election, which is that instead of his projection that, "On geopolitics, we still have great power rivalries, but the most relevant divide in the world will no longer be East-West, capitalist-communist. It will be the World of Order versus the World of Disorder", what we really have, and which only Jim Webb understands, is that "we no longer have great power divides", but a world of a growing Disguised Global Capitalist Empire, only 'posing' as, and HQed in, our faux democratic former country, a world of 'Empire-thinking' elite control, and 'democracy-wishing subjects' who will not long remain so complacently afflicted by the undiagnosed metastasizing cancer of Global Empire.
33
TRICKLEDOWN WORKS What Thom Friedman describes is evidence that the economic theory of trickledown works in unexpected ways. What caused the Great Recession was a disconnect between transactions in the financial markets and goods and services. The stock markets morphed into the use of algorithms so complex that their actions were referred to as using taxpayer's investment funds like private gambling parlors. Who would have thought that the same sorts of disconnects would occur in other sectors that traditionally relied upon connection between persons who possessed talents and markets requiring their services? What is happening resembles the emperor's new clothes: what has replaced traditional market transactions of goods and services has been replaced by the hegemony of algorithms. The meaningful nature of corporations in connecting vendors with consumers is being lost. James Schlesinger, the last former Secretary of State, cautioned that we would yearn for the bad old world order after we experience the bad new world disorder, a prescient observation. Taxi companies with no cabs? Hospitality industry with no properties? High tech manufacturing with no workers? Welcome to the Brave New World of the 21st century!
18
And what are the republicans of the Inane Clown Posse proposing?
Perpetual war in the Middle East to please Adelson, AIPAC and profiteering defence swindlers.
Polluting the planet to death to please the Koch brothers, Exxon, Peabody Coal.
Imposing christian shariah to please the cowtown ayatollahs.
Gutting Social Security and Medicare to please the corporate welfare Empresses.
Enacting a hugely regressive flat tax to please the .01%.
Perpetual war in the Middle East to please Adelson, AIPAC and profiteering defence swindlers.
Polluting the planet to death to please the Koch brothers, Exxon, Peabody Coal.
Imposing christian shariah to please the cowtown ayatollahs.
Gutting Social Security and Medicare to please the corporate welfare Empresses.
Enacting a hugely regressive flat tax to please the .01%.
447
NYT, please reward Craig Geary, the Verified Commenter Green Check, already!!
2
Perhaps IBM will enter one of its supercomputers (Deep Blue, Mira, etc) in the Presidential primaries and see how it fares against the pathetic field of candidates who base their "beliefs" on polls than principles.
If Deep Blue can beat Kasparov, the current field of candidates should pose no challenge for the computer. I doubt Deep Blue will make as many wrong "moves" as W and others who have presided over the country.
If Deep Blue can beat Kasparov, the current field of candidates should pose no challenge for the computer. I doubt Deep Blue will make as many wrong "moves" as W and others who have presided over the country.
19
As a combat Marine officer (of ideas) might say, fast 'situational awareness' and empathy with the innocent is the only thing between slaughter and honor.
Politics is about running for office as a job and it's unfortunate that it's rarely ever about leadership, although for better or worse (look up Jimmy Carter's years). There is no need to get front and center first as an announced candidate in a large field republican field because the inexperienced or out of practiced Pol will make mistakes that will be picked up and amplified by the media that hang on their every word. That's natural and fair game part of of the circus of running for the presidency. Most of the candidates will be muzzled by their handlers to prevent their candidates from speaking. We are witnessing the top Democratic candidate not saying anything, in fact there is so much being asked of her that is triply important that she have formal press conferences to address the issues that could hurt her, thus her handlers are curating the responses of their candidate to minimise any fallout that the issues raised. When do we really hear from the candidates themselves? It will be during debates, on the stump and off the cuff statements that we glean something about them but ultimately until a POL is in office do we know what their take and actions will actually be.
5
Maybe we voters will be sufficiently educated to elect a person interested in actually doing things, real things, not war. War is real but we should have all learned that electing a person who wants to make a mark with war, is like an an animal marking its territory. Vulgar and disgusting and it makes such a lasting stench.
Vision, a future that our grandchildren will enjoy, not Armageddon or global extinction are things that we want. To get there False Equivalences must be identified. The war in Iraq, 9/11 are not the same as Benghazi and email for starters. Building, restoring, creating not destroying Social Security, ending Medicare and Medicaid, crippling Public Education, are not the same.
If all a politician has to offer is war, cruelty, and greater inequality, then we might know enough to look elsewhere.
Vision, a future that our grandchildren will enjoy, not Armageddon or global extinction are things that we want. To get there False Equivalences must be identified. The war in Iraq, 9/11 are not the same as Benghazi and email for starters. Building, restoring, creating not destroying Social Security, ending Medicare and Medicaid, crippling Public Education, are not the same.
If all a politician has to offer is war, cruelty, and greater inequality, then we might know enough to look elsewhere.
83
Mr. Freedman's hyped-up "future" of gimmicky technological achievements such as Uber, Facebook, Alibaba, Airbnb and the like ignores a number of elephants in the room. The imminent fall into an irreversible set of catastrophic climate change scientists keep warning us about. The erosion of the foundation of the oldest democracy into a top-down oligarchic system facilitated by a lopsided economic system rigged with a systemic corruption at the top. The emergence of armies of unemployed or underemployed whose survival depends on a vague promise of being "retrained" and "readied" for an epoch in which smart machines will do most of the work humans used to do. Our freedoms being eroded in the name of national and international security turning us into petrified individuals afraid or incapable of asking fundamental questions about our lives. We are to believe that solution to these and other real problems lie in the same fundamental forces that have got us into the trouble we find ourselves. We can look forward to the coming silly season of silly ideas showering down on us by a few silly characterless individuals who (with one or two exceptions) are agents of the same forces that are bent to preserving the status quo. We could instead use all these spaces opened to us by computing power seeking fundamental answers to a set of real problems that is glaring at us from a not so distant futre.
100
These companies touted by Friedman are just harbingers of zero pay jobs.
I can see why the candidates wouldn't want to address many of these issues if the direction in which they are tending leaves many people behind, whether they're in boats or without jobs that pay enough to support them. This brave new world seems to me to operate in a way that helps only some people. I also want to know where the assessment of the downsides to these innovations is -- or is this like the invasion of Iraq, something which can only lead to success upon success? Finally, there seems to me to be an assumption that displaced people have nothing positive to contribute to a new homeland that might welcome them. I would suggest that helping them resettle with less trauma would increase the likelihood that they will be able to share their talents in a new community. And in terms of the responsibility of the "organized" and materially successful to such situations, if we've globalized markets and their opportunities for enrichment, why doesn't that come with a responsibility for the global community, just as we expected in the past a company located in a particular community to support that community through various financial, service, and in-kind contributions?
21
Well, for Friedman this is not bad. But as usual he says little or nothing, has no ideas, and a lot of fuzzy supposing questions. So, if there is any there in this man's thought how about some suggestions for new economic models, new social contracts, new ways of supplying goods and services and creative outlets to citizens who no longer work, but have little or no wealth. Robots working, 3D printers printing, health care jobs departing as nurses become robots and surgery is mechanized. What new economic models will provide for those existing in his 'worlds of order', and how should society allocate wealth, when fewer and fewer work? Sounds like some elites need some wealth-shifting. So, since Friedman presumes to be a thinker. Say something. Anyone can write a bunch of semi thoughtful ideas and questions. i just did.
49
The "disruptions inflections in technology" are caused by a revolution in _Information_ Technology—in the acquisition, management, and communication of _information_. That is what enables the Ubers, Facebooks, Alibabas, et al. to flourish and reshape their industries. In that context, the reticence of cold-blooded politicians to communicate fully is especially interesting—what the explosion in political information has done is to empower polling to illuminate what are the most common denominators: what will be the least offensive and most attractive information for voters to be given about each candidate. While this "blandifies" most political communication, in a competitive race between only two candidates, what will inspire most voters will win—that is what Obama did successfully. But in the early stages of primaries, as the Bushes have already said, "moderation" (for which read "bland" will survive.
2
Welcome to the party Mr. Friedman. While you've been writing endless pieces about the Middle East the rest of us have been in freefall. And this particular column is as confused and muddled as the average citizen trying to get some honesty from the government which is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the oligarchy. Too bad you weren't around to enlighten people about that particular take over. But hey, better late than never, right?
What you see is what you always see during times of stress. Citizens bartering what they do have by selling or sharing the few things they can--cars, apartments, etc. And hey, good news, the rich have even found a way to skim on this, this particular go round. So even doing nothing (as usual) they get their slice of the pie.
As to the candidates, who cares what they say now? It's too soon. We'll talk about it later. For now most of us are just trying to survive.
What you see is what you always see during times of stress. Citizens bartering what they do have by selling or sharing the few things they can--cars, apartments, etc. And hey, good news, the rich have even found a way to skim on this, this particular go round. So even doing nothing (as usual) they get their slice of the pie.
As to the candidates, who cares what they say now? It's too soon. We'll talk about it later. For now most of us are just trying to survive.
30
All of Friedman's examples of displaced people number in the thousands, and crossing borders. To make those add up to 50 million is hard. But "about two-thirds of the world's forcibly uprooted people are displaced within their own country. They are known as internally displaced people (IDP)" (from UNHCR).
5
Tom, your last para essentially demands our Presidential candidates to address issues that they have no understanding of. Interesting and how do you propose that they study them? Is that the reason why we have a 24 month election cycle for the Presidency/ What about just learning from the soundbites of Fox news or the CNN or MSNBC etc.?
Our leaders are from within us, our leaders have the same value system that we profess to have, we try to minimize our taxes, they do the same; they are concerned about their welfare and no one else's, we are too.
In order for us to demand better than, "I can see Russia from my Deck/backyard" we would have to work and we are not willing to do any heavy lifting, we rely on others to provide info/talking points to make us look intelligent. Our leaders do the same.
That is a reason a Parliamentary system would work better where people who are intelligent and are elected by their base would like to stick around to provide the necessary challenge for the rest to grow up.
Our leaders are from within us, our leaders have the same value system that we profess to have, we try to minimize our taxes, they do the same; they are concerned about their welfare and no one else's, we are too.
In order for us to demand better than, "I can see Russia from my Deck/backyard" we would have to work and we are not willing to do any heavy lifting, we rely on others to provide info/talking points to make us look intelligent. Our leaders do the same.
That is a reason a Parliamentary system would work better where people who are intelligent and are elected by their base would like to stick around to provide the necessary challenge for the rest to grow up.
12
"And most are incapable of democratic self-governance."
That's breathtakingly arrogant. The problems of central american countries are not all of their own doing, but reflect the insatiable demand the USA has for illegal drugs and the ways that destabilizes their societies. We've exported our disorder to them, and the market is flooded with it.
That's breathtakingly arrogant. The problems of central american countries are not all of their own doing, but reflect the insatiable demand the USA has for illegal drugs and the ways that destabilizes their societies. We've exported our disorder to them, and the market is flooded with it.
60
What about the option of legalizing the drugs and taxing their sale, which would obviate the need for the drug cartels to own the countries they are based in. The US should legalize the drugs too, but those other countries, the ones who are shipping the drugs here could act on their own. To blame the current problems of potential customers is ridiculous.
3
The paradigm in which US foreign policy operates is collapsing. Most assumptions and premises upon which the US operates in the Middle East and South Asia are being found to be false. Statements by high officials in Washington and elsewhere are contradicted by events happening before readers' eyes. The Pentagon hasn't been this clueless since December 8, 1941 (a fools' paradise, said Admiral Ernest King after a visit). Possibly Chuck Hagel was the canary in the coal mine.
None of the presidential candidates in either party is addressing a reality in fast transition. So the bromides and old truths come out for one more chant.
None of the presidential candidates in either party is addressing a reality in fast transition. So the bromides and old truths come out for one more chant.
13
Paul, I know a highly decorated ex-Marine officer, who reminds me in one way of a dual Congressional Medal of Honor past Marine General, Butler, and who has what is known in the combat of forces (or ideas) 'heightened situational awareness' --- particularly to the condition of elitist Empire and disguised imperialism.
Maybe we should think carefully about offering him the job of a real President, instead of just endorsing the (s)election of another faux-Emperor/president, eh?
Maybe we should think carefully about offering him the job of a real President, instead of just endorsing the (s)election of another faux-Emperor/president, eh?
I'd never thought I'd live to see the day when Tom Friedman, the champion of Arab Spring, is now nostalgic for the days of colonial empires because things made sense. Under the old colonial systems there was a genunine sense of order and stability. Everyone knew what their place was in the grand scheme of things. Now I'm seeing more and more comments from people who actually miss Saddam Hussein because he was a ruthless strongman who kept Sunnis and Shias from tearing each other apart. (Who knew????) However I remember when these very same people deplored empires and dictators because they deprived the local populations from realizing their dreams of independence as they yearned to be free. That's working out great isn't it???
69
Times change, people's views change accordingly. The only thing that is universal is change ie impermanence. As much as you are allowed to stick to your views about Kashmir people are permitted to change their views on Palestine yes even the Pope is allowed to.
2
Technology is doing to the developed world's service sector, what trade liberalization and containerized shipping did for its tradeable sector.
The networked mobile technology bundles disaggregate the service delivery business model further between its capital/physical aspects and its labour content. Then it shifts as much of that labour either to servers in Keflavik or to low cost workers in Mumbai.
Alibaba, Airbnb and Uber reduce the contributions of marketing, placement and positioning which require some modicum of human contribution to delivering the service, reducing the value of labour contribution to more and more mindless tasks.
Facebook on the other hand, needs the existence of other content providers to retain engagement. It has become a backbone to the global media industry.
So these technologies indeed further change the nature of work by separating the physical aspects of service from the labour content. This takes away further from the negotiating power of workers in the First World and the power of their governments to sustaining and taxing their minimum income by restricting immigration.
In his book, Ha-Joon Chang, was asking why is a bus driver in Stockholm is paid 10 times what the same bus driver in Bangalore. And his answer was immigration. Well, in a few years the Stockholm bus will be driven by a server in Reykjavik or by a remote driver in Bangalore (much like a Texas airforce pilot can fly a drone over Yemen).
The networked mobile technology bundles disaggregate the service delivery business model further between its capital/physical aspects and its labour content. Then it shifts as much of that labour either to servers in Keflavik or to low cost workers in Mumbai.
Alibaba, Airbnb and Uber reduce the contributions of marketing, placement and positioning which require some modicum of human contribution to delivering the service, reducing the value of labour contribution to more and more mindless tasks.
Facebook on the other hand, needs the existence of other content providers to retain engagement. It has become a backbone to the global media industry.
So these technologies indeed further change the nature of work by separating the physical aspects of service from the labour content. This takes away further from the negotiating power of workers in the First World and the power of their governments to sustaining and taxing their minimum income by restricting immigration.
In his book, Ha-Joon Chang, was asking why is a bus driver in Stockholm is paid 10 times what the same bus driver in Bangalore. And his answer was immigration. Well, in a few years the Stockholm bus will be driven by a server in Reykjavik or by a remote driver in Bangalore (much like a Texas airforce pilot can fly a drone over Yemen).
9
Perhaps in the case of Hillary the media should ask her substantial questions rather than about her email.
118
A very interesting essay by Mr. Friedman on how Alvin Toffler’s “Third Wave” is playing out in reality and yet it seems to me that he is missing the point.
Mr Friedman is coming from a fixation on an imagined benign unipolar world of American Hegemony. His implicit definition of American Hegemony is indistinguishable from the Neo-Con PNAC of the last (20th) Century, a wholly out of date definition of a World of Order.
A major factor is a “disruptive inflection in technology” not mentioned by Mr. Friedman. That is the Financial Sector where people are paid massive sums of money for playing with figures. Those massive sums of money can be described as ‘property rights’ and they are being converted into
• Ownership of physical property e.g. Serengeti in Africa – where indigenous people are displaced;
• Fishing Rights in West Africa where one huge Factory Ship Atlantic Dawn can, in one fishing mission, expropriate the ANNUAL livelihood of 7000 African offshore fishermen.
• Many examples described in “The Shock Doctrine” by Naomi Klein.
Mr. Friedman needs to connect the World of Disorder, the causes of “50 million displaced people worldwide”, with this overspill from the World of Order.
The point that Mr. Friedman is missing is that there is no major shift on the question of what’s worth owning; the answer is, as always, the Legal system, control of property rights. These are the characteristics of his World of Order!
Mr Friedman is coming from a fixation on an imagined benign unipolar world of American Hegemony. His implicit definition of American Hegemony is indistinguishable from the Neo-Con PNAC of the last (20th) Century, a wholly out of date definition of a World of Order.
A major factor is a “disruptive inflection in technology” not mentioned by Mr. Friedman. That is the Financial Sector where people are paid massive sums of money for playing with figures. Those massive sums of money can be described as ‘property rights’ and they are being converted into
• Ownership of physical property e.g. Serengeti in Africa – where indigenous people are displaced;
• Fishing Rights in West Africa where one huge Factory Ship Atlantic Dawn can, in one fishing mission, expropriate the ANNUAL livelihood of 7000 African offshore fishermen.
• Many examples described in “The Shock Doctrine” by Naomi Klein.
Mr. Friedman needs to connect the World of Disorder, the causes of “50 million displaced people worldwide”, with this overspill from the World of Order.
The point that Mr. Friedman is missing is that there is no major shift on the question of what’s worth owning; the answer is, as always, the Legal system, control of property rights. These are the characteristics of his World of Order!
27
Thomas Friedman at his best. Well worth the read. In a a handful of words, the future will come caling, ready or not.
6
Best sentence in this editorial "But here's the rub: we don't know what to do." I humbly suggest that, until we know "what to do" we keep our interventions to a minimum. Certainly we can provide humanitarian aid, but fixing the problems is beyond our grasp at the moment.
72
H. Lohrman, you have written the best comment of the day. "We" cannot fix the world's problems. We can't even fix our own.
2
The end of a consumption based economy has been approaching for some time and is now upon us. The powers that are don't need (or want) workers but without workers you don't have consumers for a consumer driven consumption based world economy to work. Meanwhile we have a planet desperate for less consumption for its survival.
You would think the end of the consumption economy would be great news for our environment until you ask yourself what happens to the billions of people left with no work, no food, and no hope. We don't have to look far for the answer - just look at any failed state - and you find violence, destruction, chaos, and death.
The modern consumption driven economy has always been a kind of shell game - people buying things they don't really need with money they don't really have for reasons they don't really understand and in most cased actually doing themselves and the world harm in the process.
Until and unless we find a new model for what we value and how we relate to ourselves, each other, and the world we depend on for survival the future looks bleak. Of course, if you want to fix a problem you first have to admit you have a problem and that doesn't seem likely to happen anytime soon.
Then again, if people started realizing we are all in the same lifeboat that needs everyone rowing together to survive things might be different, and the answers pretty obvious.
You would think the end of the consumption economy would be great news for our environment until you ask yourself what happens to the billions of people left with no work, no food, and no hope. We don't have to look far for the answer - just look at any failed state - and you find violence, destruction, chaos, and death.
The modern consumption driven economy has always been a kind of shell game - people buying things they don't really need with money they don't really have for reasons they don't really understand and in most cased actually doing themselves and the world harm in the process.
Until and unless we find a new model for what we value and how we relate to ourselves, each other, and the world we depend on for survival the future looks bleak. Of course, if you want to fix a problem you first have to admit you have a problem and that doesn't seem likely to happen anytime soon.
Then again, if people started realizing we are all in the same lifeboat that needs everyone rowing together to survive things might be different, and the answers pretty obvious.
364
The only logical answer here is reduction of population. Consumption would be less an issue of the worlds population were half of what it is. Mass imigration just makes matters even worse but no politician is standing up for either of these concepts.
Perfect. Now you just have to get 6 billion people to agree with you. Good luck with that.
1
What have we done lately to deserve a President better than say, Ted Cruz?
2
I begin to differ, Mr Friedman. To be clear, I am not trying to be a reactionary or a person without commitment. However, the POTUS is just that, president of all and not just a factional leader. President Obama might have failed to unite the country but he has tried. Specific aside, those who follow him will meet that benchmark. Majority rule and minority rights.
The future president should not be an extremist of any sort. That includes being a futurist without any regards of traditions and sensibility. Yet, most of us have read Brave New World. Sure, if the world wants frictionless, so be it. But not at the expense of annihilating those who have paid into the system. To reduce the friction between the two, the next president is in the unique position to be the honest broker between the haves and haves-not.
The Ubers and the AirBnBs of the world today are the offshore outsourcers of yesterday. They may be inevitable as the world evolves. Globalization is just the next step of the first and second industrial revolutions. Yet, you want people to have a leveled playing field. Uber having a huge war chest doesn't mean it can break any rules. This tension exists in social security, pension, boomers and millennials, the rich and the poor.
So far, there aren't too many pragmatists on the campaign trails. What is worse than an extremist without a backbone is an extremist with one!
The future president should not be an extremist of any sort. That includes being a futurist without any regards of traditions and sensibility. Yet, most of us have read Brave New World. Sure, if the world wants frictionless, so be it. But not at the expense of annihilating those who have paid into the system. To reduce the friction between the two, the next president is in the unique position to be the honest broker between the haves and haves-not.
The Ubers and the AirBnBs of the world today are the offshore outsourcers of yesterday. They may be inevitable as the world evolves. Globalization is just the next step of the first and second industrial revolutions. Yet, you want people to have a leveled playing field. Uber having a huge war chest doesn't mean it can break any rules. This tension exists in social security, pension, boomers and millennials, the rich and the poor.
So far, there aren't too many pragmatists on the campaign trails. What is worse than an extremist without a backbone is an extremist with one!
11
In other words, the next POTUS not only has to face the future, s/he will also need bear the weight of history. To do that, taking sides without being mindful of others can only perpetuate the disunity - and the U.S. may be more divided to the point of sectarian warfare so prevalent in many regions of the world
4
Bos, to some, a more divide, distracted, and sectarian warfare of the classes, regions, and religions IS the goal.
But elitist pretensions to stir-up such is as false as old-world Dickensian London's Empire trying to disguise the filaments in a cheap bottle of Old Mr. Boston gin by shaking up the bottle.
But elitist pretensions to stir-up such is as false as old-world Dickensian London's Empire trying to disguise the filaments in a cheap bottle of Old Mr. Boston gin by shaking up the bottle.
Great column. It tees up precisely the issues that the candidates should develop policy pieces on but most won't. Some of them, sadly, aren't capable; others are so blinded by ideological verities -- on BOTH sides -- that their thoughts on these matters aren't worth parsing. Some of them are afraid of the answers and so would prefer that the questions not be asked until AFTER the election.
I expect that Jeb Bush will address all of them, if not immediately then shortly after he gets his foot out of his mouth. On the other side, some who will vie against Hillary may, in order to distinguish themselves -- people such as Andrew Cuomo and Jim Webb, should they decide to contend. But don't expect Hillary EVER to confront these questions, much less offer answers or even strong views.
In Hillary's world of triangulation, strong views get you in trouble. They can't help but alienate SOMEONE. Oh, in order to play to liberals she'll crib from Senator Liz's playbook, but as soon as she has the nomination, this oleaginous pall will descend on her campaign as she tries mightily not to antagonize anyone.
She wants to be president to be president, not to lead America to a better place: that would require answers, and every one of them is hard because SOME oxen must be gored.
To QUOTE Trotsky: "The end may justify the means as long as there is something that justifies the end." Hillary's "end" is merely the presidency, with no justification for it other than itself.
I expect that Jeb Bush will address all of them, if not immediately then shortly after he gets his foot out of his mouth. On the other side, some who will vie against Hillary may, in order to distinguish themselves -- people such as Andrew Cuomo and Jim Webb, should they decide to contend. But don't expect Hillary EVER to confront these questions, much less offer answers or even strong views.
In Hillary's world of triangulation, strong views get you in trouble. They can't help but alienate SOMEONE. Oh, in order to play to liberals she'll crib from Senator Liz's playbook, but as soon as she has the nomination, this oleaginous pall will descend on her campaign as she tries mightily not to antagonize anyone.
She wants to be president to be president, not to lead America to a better place: that would require answers, and every one of them is hard because SOME oxen must be gored.
To QUOTE Trotsky: "The end may justify the means as long as there is something that justifies the end." Hillary's "end" is merely the presidency, with no justification for it other than itself.
28
Please define what you feel is Jeb's reason for wanting to be president other than to reclaim his big brother's "legacy"?
Jeb should have listened to his mommy.
Jeb should have listened to his mommy.
169
Yes, thank g-d for J-b, he wants to be president to correct all the horrendous "mistakes" his brother made.
11
Richard, No, a great comment and analysis to a confused/contrived column!
1
The world cauldron of disorder as it relates to the movement of human beings throughout the world is the central issue of the not too distant future.
As a result the most important issue, we as a country have to consider today, is that of immigration per se.
Currently we refer to it solely as a "reform" matter or issue, which actually leaves a definition of the problem of "immigration" up for grabs.
"Reform" how and in what way is far from clear and no well defined objective or outcome is clearly explained or put forward in any meaningful way by any currnt entity.
At the risk of being viewed as politically incorrect, I have concluded that for the most part the great majority of us have come to the following mostly unexpressed conclusion and/or opinion.
Further immigration into this country must come to a complete and immediate end - in spite of "my lamp" lifted "beside the golden door" so traditionally, and rightly so, in times past.
Therein is the broad theme and today's necessary strategic goal.
The tactical details well be many and varied, but they can no longer be ignored.
For to do so, given world events in a steadily shrinking world, will be at our own great disadvantage, if not at a peril as yet clearly undefined.
As a result the most important issue, we as a country have to consider today, is that of immigration per se.
Currently we refer to it solely as a "reform" matter or issue, which actually leaves a definition of the problem of "immigration" up for grabs.
"Reform" how and in what way is far from clear and no well defined objective or outcome is clearly explained or put forward in any meaningful way by any currnt entity.
At the risk of being viewed as politically incorrect, I have concluded that for the most part the great majority of us have come to the following mostly unexpressed conclusion and/or opinion.
Further immigration into this country must come to a complete and immediate end - in spite of "my lamp" lifted "beside the golden door" so traditionally, and rightly so, in times past.
Therein is the broad theme and today's necessary strategic goal.
The tactical details well be many and varied, but they can no longer be ignored.
For to do so, given world events in a steadily shrinking world, will be at our own great disadvantage, if not at a peril as yet clearly undefined.
8
MNW - Have you done any research on this subject or is this just your "gut feeling." All of the studies I have seen show practically all gains from small businesses are and will be due to immigrants. Sure immigrants use education, health care, etc., but when you add up the numbers, these costs are swamped by the gains.
Not only has lifting the lamp besides the golden door built our country, it is our future.
Not only has lifting the lamp besides the golden door built our country, it is our future.
3
Len: easy to say from an affluent neighborhood in Princeton, which is so expensive that it has very few poor folks.
Move to the Southwest, near the border, and then tell us how "all this immigration is really great for the economy". Or East LA, or other urban slums.
Move to the Southwest, near the border, and then tell us how "all this immigration is really great for the economy". Or East LA, or other urban slums.
3
To Len.
We mathematicians have an innate sense of magnitude and proportion.
Also our discipline calls for the utilization of inductive and deductive reasoning - as well as logical thinking based on a plethora of facts as related to numbers.
You can call this a "gut feeling" if you like, whereas I call it a natural ability more or less innate as a capability inherited from a long line of similarly endowed persons.
At the moment I am pressed for time, but hope to get back to you and your query, if not now then sometime at a later date.
This matter of immigration is an essential one and will become more so as the next year unfolds.
Take note of the few replies to my comment thus far. This is one of the reasons for my comment - exploratory as a matter of interest as well as one of curiosity.
The entire issue needs great discussion, which it is not receiving, on a national basis ...... and soon.
We mathematicians have an innate sense of magnitude and proportion.
Also our discipline calls for the utilization of inductive and deductive reasoning - as well as logical thinking based on a plethora of facts as related to numbers.
You can call this a "gut feeling" if you like, whereas I call it a natural ability more or less innate as a capability inherited from a long line of similarly endowed persons.
At the moment I am pressed for time, but hope to get back to you and your query, if not now then sometime at a later date.
This matter of immigration is an essential one and will become more so as the next year unfolds.
Take note of the few replies to my comment thus far. This is one of the reasons for my comment - exploratory as a matter of interest as well as one of curiosity.
The entire issue needs great discussion, which it is not receiving, on a national basis ...... and soon.
Many of us saw this coming 40 years ago. One of those who saw was President James Earl Carter. It is of little wonder that those seeking political office refuse to address real problems when they they see the veneration afforded a buffoon and his Patrician henchman and see a real hero and visionary building houses for and hanging around poor people.
We live in a celebrity culture where people a paid handsomely for saying and doing stupid. There is more than enough work for those willing to roll up their sleeves and fix what needs fixing but as the the song says
"work your fingers to the bone.
What do you get?
Bony fingers."
Just cleaning up after ourselves should provide the jobs for the next three generations. Of course picking up after ourselves, sweeping and cleaning is a job for people like James Earl Carter not for we Princes and Princesses.
We live in a celebrity culture where people a paid handsomely for saying and doing stupid. There is more than enough work for those willing to roll up their sleeves and fix what needs fixing but as the the song says
"work your fingers to the bone.
What do you get?
Bony fingers."
Just cleaning up after ourselves should provide the jobs for the next three generations. Of course picking up after ourselves, sweeping and cleaning is a job for people like James Earl Carter not for we Princes and Princesses.
518
We have reaped the failures of our own failure to act responsibly. We stood by content to entertain ourselves with the antics of these rich celebrities including the political ones while the oligarchs were robbing the piggy bank and usurping all of the power. Shame on us.
5
How can somebody with an 8-year job muster the wisdom and power to lead a nation into the next century? By the time you see what's going on and how to use Presidential power, you're into early retirement.
28
“No Ordinary Disruption,” means that “knowledge workers at the middle and the top” may be more threatened”? Well, how far will this spread, Tom?
To media columnists? When will these major tech shifts start affecting well known columnists at big media conglomerates? When will their salaries and benefits take a dive, similar to the majority of US employed people? Will the tone of their columns change if they’re affected by the same trends as everybody else?
Outsourcing saves money on this ‘flat earth’, right Mr. Friedman? I guess there must be many educated people and journalists in Asia who are up on world affairs and can write English well. They can write columns from anywhere, using the internet for research, then just press the Send button. Just like your commenters. But all at a much lower salary, then US big city writers. And even as an 'independent contractor'. Watch out, US pundits. The bell may toll for thee.
To media columnists? When will these major tech shifts start affecting well known columnists at big media conglomerates? When will their salaries and benefits take a dive, similar to the majority of US employed people? Will the tone of their columns change if they’re affected by the same trends as everybody else?
Outsourcing saves money on this ‘flat earth’, right Mr. Friedman? I guess there must be many educated people and journalists in Asia who are up on world affairs and can write English well. They can write columns from anywhere, using the internet for research, then just press the Send button. Just like your commenters. But all at a much lower salary, then US big city writers. And even as an 'independent contractor'. Watch out, US pundits. The bell may toll for thee.
87
The difference is that Mr. Friedman has a liberal arts education (Brandeis, I believe), and thus an edge in a field that requires critical and creative thinking. He will be quite fine.
3
That was brilliant, wish I had thought of it. "Don't ask for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for you".
Those sitting atop a big pile of money, in their cushy white collar jobs, don't see that "hot flat crowded world" meaning anything for them -- they will always have the money to run the air conditioning or spend the summer in Martha's Vineyard.
The rotten circumstances are for "the little people" -- i.e., "you and me".
The rotten circumstances are for "the little people" -- i.e., "you and me".
2
Tom, I am amazed that a person of your experience cannot see the forest for the trees. Why should a politician engage in the 'truth' and 'truth telling'? The American electorate is as Gruber told us, is just plain stupid. Serious talk from a politician? Please, give me a break, it is not wanted and will not be believed.
243
I completely agree. The majority of Americans couldn't even comprehend the ideas in this article.
1
Indeed. "it’s striking how little most of the candidates want to engage with major issues of the day, let alone the future."
And if things go as they usually do, it will be a campaign with coverage devoted to the horserace and to the "gotchas". Instead, why can't the American people interview the candidates, ask for fact-checked resumes with lots of references. I went through five interviews with countless people for one of my positions. Why leave it to chance, or to the media (who, by the way, have not done a very good job of it whatever the reason)?
We deserve to have these candidates for the highest office in the land, put through the gauntlet at least as much as a lowly middle manager.
And if things go as they usually do, it will be a campaign with coverage devoted to the horserace and to the "gotchas". Instead, why can't the American people interview the candidates, ask for fact-checked resumes with lots of references. I went through five interviews with countless people for one of my positions. Why leave it to chance, or to the media (who, by the way, have not done a very good job of it whatever the reason)?
We deserve to have these candidates for the highest office in the land, put through the gauntlet at least as much as a lowly middle manager.
117
Re "it’s striking how little most of the candidates want to engage . . ." I thought about this very same aspect last week when I read that the eleven Republican presidential candidates were being given ten minutes . . . ten minutes . . . to speak before some Iowans who would then decide who their presidential candidate would be. Subtracting the five minutes or so of mandatory Hillary-bashing leaves little time for any type of meaningful discussion of any issue, not to mention the wide spectrum of issues that confront a president on a daily basis. The portion of the electorate that is satisfied with this arrangement deserves exactly the kind of candidate they will get, the smug apparently know-it-all type who relies on his vain-glorious religion and a higher father (ala GWB) for the answers to so many of the questions he cannot even pretend to understand, no less make an effort to do so.
14
Will the Vatican, too,be comprised
Of a Holy See computerized?
Since concern for the Poor
Seems to have no allure
Will its Sisterhood now be downsized?
Bernie, I think, will be quite deft
In shifting Ms Hillary left,
While the GOP horde
With the Kochs full accord
Will keep the Poor of funds bereft.
If the new Congress is not in hand
The new POTUS can't take a stand,
We'll mumble and bumble
Let equality crumble,
With Rubio, Jeb Bush or Rand.
Of a Holy See computerized?
Since concern for the Poor
Seems to have no allure
Will its Sisterhood now be downsized?
Bernie, I think, will be quite deft
In shifting Ms Hillary left,
While the GOP horde
With the Kochs full accord
Will keep the Poor of funds bereft.
If the new Congress is not in hand
The new POTUS can't take a stand,
We'll mumble and bumble
Let equality crumble,
With Rubio, Jeb Bush or Rand.
186
Larry, this may come as a shock but President Obama just opened his own Twitter account.
1
You should stop reading the liberal, anti-church narrative and you will find out that without the charity work of the Catholic Church and other churches the poor here in the US and worldwide would spin into a complete crisis. The narrative is those of faith focus on abortion and are anti-gay marriage and ignore the poor ... and that the pulpits are full of hate. That is a rare exception. For example, the couple of hundreds of millions of dollars spent on abortion and anti-same sex marriage (spent by fringe elements) tens of billions of dollars are spent on charities, hospitals, hospices, schools worldwide.
1