Oh for heaven's sake! No serious climate scientist really thinks we will see 8° C rise in surface temperature -- not in this century, probably never.
This is yet another non-science "prediction":made using the widely-in-doubt IPCC "worst case scenario" -- which is simply not credible.
Oh, for heaven's sake! You're stepping around the article pointing out that tens of thousands of lakes are and will be affected, and they give ranges based on emissions, nowhere in the paper or this article do they "predict" the worst-case. You're always complaining how uncertain science is, and you don't allow that uncertainty could cut against us? In the study itself, they also note that they didn't make projections for all the land above 60° N latitude, in the fastest-warming part of the planet. Go to the linked article, read it, read the supplemental material. For IPCC +2 °C target maximum warming, 35,400 lakes, at current mitigation trajectory they suggest 57,600 lakes affected, for no mitigation, 90,200 lakes, then for the extreme high end, 230,400 lakes. --- This kind of clarifies how important it is to mitigate aggressively, and remember, if we hit any of the higher ranges, the lands north of the graphic cutoff would certainly also have many affected lakes. As the study points out, there are more lakes the farther north you go.
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We live very near Lake Roosevelt, the reservoir formed by Grand Coulee Dam, and have done for almost 40 years. When we were first here, it was common for the lake to freeze completely over in places, and oldtimers talked of being able to drive cars on it. Now there is some ice in some places, but I would not let children walk on it, and nowhere does it cross the lake.
34 years ago I was pregnant with my son and we cross-country skied daily just out our front door after work all winter. Now there are very few days when we can ski at our elevation at all. We live in USDA gardening zone 5, with temperatures down to -20F, but we rarely ever see temperatures even in the positive single digits, and are able to grow zone 6 plants now. We garden and feed birds, and both flowers and birds are appearing earlier, thankfully, as one often depends on the other.
People who pay attention to the natural and growing world can see manifestations of climate change during their lifetimes. It's obvious.
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It's not just ice. We spend summers on a lake in south-central Maine. This past August, we noticed, for the first time, a lot of Gloeotrichia in the water. Gloeotrichia is a cyanobacterium which may produce toxins. Not much studied, no one seems to know for sure. The Lake Stewards of Maine, formerly the Volunteer lake Monitoring Program, has recently started asking members to report such sightings. In a few decades it may no longer be safe to swim in the lake for much of the summer.
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Even here in Western Washington, people who've grown up here say that they used to ice-skate on ponds (I know, not lakes) every year of their childhood. Those ponds now have gone through the last 10 - 15 years without *any* ice, let alone ice thick enough to skate on.
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The pond and lake freezing will return. This has nothing to do with so called climate change. The weather is on a different time frame than man. It has fluctuated through freezing and thawing throughout the millennium. Man can have very little effect on the climate. Weather patterns and storms on the sun are the cause, not man.
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Funny guy.
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Apparently, Sven Gall, you've never been in an actual greenhouse. It's pretty dramatic. The science is based on actual greenhouse experiments where increasing amounts of the "wrong" kinds of gases were added to the mix. The results were noted in those experiments. The predictions about what that would do to our atmosphere, the earth's temperature, and the cascade of resulting effects from that temperature have proved to be, uh, too conservative: the changes are happening faster than scientists in the 1970s, say, thought.
It is important to understand the separate concepts of:
the greenhouse effect
global warming
ocean temperature warming
land and air temperature rising
climate systems
climate systems changing
weather events
weather patterns
weather pattern changes
You can muddle these concepts but it doesn't change the facts. Have you read about the oil company investigations of the 1970s and how their scientists predicted global warming and then how the reports were suppressed but more recently revealed? It's a google search away.
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Because our sun is entering one of the deepest Solar Minima of the Space Age, recent studies at NASA’s Langley Research Center, suggest we have at least 70 to 150 years in the deep freezer to look forward to where the only mitigating factor is anthropologic carbon production.*
* See: "A Winter Tale of Snow to Remember and Sun Long Ago" @ http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/winter-tale-snow-to-remember-sun-long-ago/
batazoid, you are misinterpreting the work at Langley on the thermosphere- the part of the atmosphere closest to space, not to the surface where our climate is. Here's an article from them from Dec. 10, 2018.
Read this ENTIRE quote, then go to the link. Notice the phrase "far above our climate system". Notice they directly say this will not affect us.
"Yes, the Sun Is Less Active. No, You're Not Likely to Notice"
"Chill out. That's the current message from the Sun to Earth's upper atmosphere.
To be more precise, as the Sun settles into a cyclical, natural lull in activity, the upper atmosphere, or thermosphere — far above our own climate system — is responding in kind by cooling and contracting.
Could that have implications for folks down here on the surface? Absolutely not. Unless, that is, you're someone with a vested interest in tracking an orbiting satellite or space debris."
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/yes-the-sun-is-less-active-no-youre-not-likely-to-notice
I have to ask, do you talk about Langley and then misdirect to some blog because you know Langley's research completely contradicts your statements?
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All I know is that it was February 4th yesterday in texas and I had to turn on my dang air conditioner because it was over 80 degrees Fahrenheit. I don’t recall ever turning on the AC in February. one degree from a record.
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Climate change is a political hoax. We have a condition called weather and it changes. The earth has gone through warming and cooling trends for millennium. Now we are learning that conditions on the sun have a major impact on earth’s “weather”. I talk with more and more people and they are starting to question the viability of this green new deal. Most believe it would bankrupt the USA and lead to a Great Depression. Many understand the political ramifications of creating this new behemoth to challenge the fossil fuel industry. Let’s all stand back and take a deep breath of our already fresh clean air and question the motives of these politicians. They have a long history of misleading the public.
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Dear Sven: The American glaciers of Montana have been steadily melting over the entire 20th century. Steadily. They are not net freezing over. They will be completely gone in a few decades. Is this what you mean by a hoax?
You can look up the photographic evidence yourself.
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Hey fellow Arizonan! I actively work in conservation in arizona and ask that you ignore the politicians and listen to experts - scientists. Some arizona specific updates are that we're already facing mass die off of Saguaros within 75 years due to temperature swings (not just gradual increases). We're also expecting Aspen, Pinon Pine, and Juniper to all have mass death scenarios in the next 100 years. That's most of the critical habitat in the state, which will lead to other species dying.
Please read up on SEGA (Southwestern Garden Array), a cross state research effort to identify which species can survive temperature swings. If you dont, whatever I guess because it doesn't matter if you believe in science like gravity or stages of the moon, or climate change, because its gonna happen no matter what.
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Michael--A former Arizonan, I agree. Or, as the T-shirt says, "The good thing about science is that it's true whether you believe it or not."
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