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Daily Discussion - (December 17)

WAKE UP HUMAN!! DON'T STAY IN BED, UNLESS YOU CAN MAKE MONEY IN BED.

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Small caps did nicely
Closing near a low, maybe some more pullback tonight? What a trash day.
Got bored with indices, opened +2 /UB long at 183’16. That’s going pretty well.
Bonds terrify me.. I don’t know support levels etc.. I could scalp them, but they move faster than the spoos and at 32.50 a tick, can go big ouch in a hurry..
nice entry
Oh now we break down. Mean market
Tell me about it.. I had the entry and had it go 1 tick red, and that was ~4 hours ago?? To go down 5 handles?? Yeah, no.. lol
booo MA
should have taken profits when I could have
oh well, bagholding now
in other news, V, FB and MTCH look good to me
thee thing is, /ES is overdue for a pullback IMHO
Lol sometimes I forget everyone is in options here. I was like, it’s not even down a point
I am feeling the same way with $YUM, almost wanted to sell yesterday at 101.2, was up 45% then. This morning a downgrade took me down a lot.
This is just gross action on the indexes... I mean, I can trade it but it’s about as painful as can be..
contraction typically leads to expansion so at least we got that going for us
Can we expand to about 2970?
I stopped looking at moving averages (turned them all off on TV), macd, and b-bands since beginning of Oct and I've been trading dramatically better.
15/30 min HA, 20 hma. Have a nice life..
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kind of think i might just hold this remaining amzn call into tomorrow.... or maybe open a spread.
What are you holding? Debating on opening a single 1800C at EOD or at market open tomorrow...
Almost looks like the record flatest day in history but the ADD's have been steadily moving higher since 10:00 am.
My ToS mobile is being very strange, listing SPY as 319.50 with a Bid/Ask of 319.98 and 319.99.
I have to restart the app to get it to work, but then it eventually reverts to the wrong numbers again.
Option time and sales data stopped working me on desktop in the middle of the day.
I have also noticed that the “condition” field of time sale option data has been broken/nonexistent for weeks now.
Tbh, I have been kind of worried about TDA/TOS since the Schwab deal was announced, and the increasing frequency of small tech problems isn’t doing anything to alleviate those fears.
It’s everyone today, everyone I know having the same issues..
Mine showed shop only down .44%
Got excited for a minute
Bought weekly 138.5 TLT calls ~137.35
Huge amount of calls being snagged for Jan17 138
Pair trade opened last night around 21:09: BUY +2 /YMH20:XCBT @28250.00 LMT [TO OPEN] SELL -5 /NQH20:XCME @8611.25 LMT [TO OPEN]
Pair trade opened this morning 06:48: BOT +5 /6AH20:XCME @.6862 SOLD -5 /6EH20:XCME @1.1221
Jumped out of shorts for small loss. Not liking this action
surprised VIX isn't lower
weird "glitch" on spy
MicronDRAM
AMZN supply zone. look at all those wicks in the supply zone
sorry are you saying theres a selloff if we go a little higher than this?
Too coiled up for my liking and we're after 2pm. I'm out y'all, flat now. enjoy the day folks, someone please kick the Spoos and tell them to pick a direction
ok MSFT, ill buy more.
Looks like it's going to break in a direction. My guess is up.
https://imgur.com/a/7ACRauj
Stomach flu. Feel like shit. Ain't trading.
Just let it go down already
At this point AMZN might as well execute all trades only twice a day, once at market open and the second at market close.
yup. the theta burn on the options premium is freaking brutal
AMZN only up 14% on the year in this insane bull market. pos
Hmm, RTY is up now relative to ES. Maybe time to exit my shorts.
or enter RTY shorts lol
Saw shutdown news, looked at charts, thought it said 3299 instead of 3199 and nearly Shat myself lmao
Bought some lotto $AAPL puts, 12/27 $270’s
You saw how that went for me lmao
dont do it!
Remember how there were like two or three face ripping rallies in early Jan, which were explained away as "pension rebalancing". is that something to count on again? Don't hedge funds rebalance and spend heavily for the their 2020 bets/investments [edit] in Jan?
hmm. i shall enter a small short
SHUN
looks like most of the sell orders are getting fill on AMZN.
also, i re-entered SQ. twenty 12/27 67c's at 0.49.
Good luck. Sold my SQ 65.5s 12/27 yday for 40% and reentered today with 66s at .87. I'm hoping for a slight bounce tomorrow.
Nice entry :)
Come on SHOP just go green already...
STRONG HANDS WIGGZ IS BACK
🤘🤘💪💪💪
I just have trouble staying long here. Dec 2nd the price touched $311. I've seen zero news. Not sure what's justifying the pump.
It's fighting $388 pretty hard. Could go either way. Not a spicy take but trading this is like putting it all on red or black at this point.
Ooh spicy candle (for today)
Yeah lol that one candles high and low was the days range basically. Nice.
looks like algos are fighting here
I look away for ONE SECOND
woa weird volume spike comin hot
Miss the days when that was a normal candle
TNDM looking interesting here.
What were those last two 1 minute candles?
Someone selling and algos buying to prevent bleeding.
Glitch
1m candles? Never seen her
AMD 52 week high...
Seriously thought about LEAP puts....
Just sold 48 shares of fb. Bought at $143.81 on 11/14/18 sold at $198.36 today. Too much regulatory pressure and eyes on them.
Picked up 65 shares of dis at $148.17.
value area is ~4 points so far today. absolutely thrilling stuff here
hmm the market is actually moving more than it "should" be though... recall the low vol of 2017 where it was like blowing on molasses with a straw, weeks of inside days. This market is moving up like its retracing a down move/squeezing constantly. What does it mean? I'm not sure.
$MCD doesn't look so good
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Surely there is a >5% dump in the horizon after such a run up. When does it come?
You can probably find a good time frame if you can figure out who’s buying
At the end of January/beginning of February:
not with the Trump/Powell put, volatility is over
If it can come in the next 7 days, that would be alright with me.. lol
On the indexes? HAHAHAHA
market only goes up HB
Say, you are an early bitcoiner with few hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin.You want to cash out but there isn't enough liquidity and also you are greedy (you want to get as much as possible). What do you do?
There are handful of these and these are responsible for most of price action.
that's what U.S traded futures and collusion are for. team up with a few others and manipulate the entire market (it is happening) but why only cash out? with that much firepower you can keep manipulating the market and printing money. Sell bitcoin futures and you and your buddies dump. Stop selling, buy futures and then use your cash to bid up bitcoin. It has been happening in one form or another since at least 2016.
edit: to answer your actual question, wait for options and then sell calls. Collect premium and eventually cash out. More profitable imo
Sell in lots at the highs? That seems to be your only option really.
On a related note, I see you run leverage on your shorts, how much do you/algo run every day? Would 20x be super irresponsible for scalping or?
It’s really unlikely this happens (soon) but I’m willing to short on a break of 3193. Pretty shit structure all the way down to the 3180s and I’m willing to bet we’ll explore it if given the opportunity
almost no volume traded between 3188.5 - 3191.5, the RTH gap, then there is the ETH gap at 3175.75 - 3177, apart from the mess below that
SEE... I told you.. the second I take 2 handles in the chop it’s gonna be a 10 handle runner.. watch.
Negative ghostrider lol. We’re stuck in this nightmarish 4 point range.
Seesawing on each side of VWAP. Nothing more than 2 handles to be had on each side
Shop manwhat the fuck
Actually though, wtf is this stock doing?
Honestly, who is buying in this nosebleed territory
The Fed.
GIVE ME MY 2 HANDLES!
Edit- Tyvm
Lol, tough sledding, but that was a pretty top tick for the short.
Now reverse?
Everytime I make beer money buying handful of shares. It's not much, but it's honest work.
Sold 3200.75
GME putting in a +7% to no fanfare. Held my 2021 C's through earnings and I could plausibly add more if it can clear 6.
i hate money, opening jan 17 amzn 1820 C
This range is incredibly boring. Where's our breakdown
Xlf holding everything
Back into ULTA March 2020's
SHOP uses V shaped recovery, it is super effective!
Please lmaowhat the fuck man
Sigh, 1 point range. Cutting short for +1 tick at 3200. Slow market favors a grind upwards.
Efficient market
All out my SQ calls. If I'd locked everything yesterday, i would have made a yeezy (heard this term on this sub; it means 1k, right?), but locked half and let the other half ride (instead of panic profit taking like I always do--and this happens. lol. but totally worth trying). Frankly, I'm surprised by this price action. I don't see any news either. And other fintech like Pypl, MA, and V are holding up much better (unless SQ is an early tell for the rest). Sigh. 😩
I think it actually means you could afford a pair of the Yeezy shoes.
Prob wrong tho.
that's a textbook bull flag on AMZN intraday chart
Weekly 1800Cs at EOD might be fun...I say this knowing fully well that it may also not be fun.
unless i am entirely misreading both the chart, company profile, and public sentiment... i think we're stabilizing for a 1820+ push.
please don't tweet orange man, please dont.
EU nerfs FSD in Europe.
I doubt anyone will get a refund.
Auto Lane Change will be restricted for use on divided roads with two or more lanes of traffic in either direction. Once Auto Lane Change is activated and the indicator is turned on, your car will wait a minimum of one and a half seconds before starting the lane change and will wait up to five seconds before cancelling if the lane change has not been able too start.
not too concerned.
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ROKU looks like it may be at the bottom of its channel but I've never traded them before and dont really follow it.
Would i be a fool to get some calls?
I think it's artificially down today on the CFO departure news, if you buy calls do it right before close.
I’m waiting on <$125, if I miss I miss..
ol' rus breaking up
Trade of the year in Tesla options today:
June '20 420 Puts traded for $6.9M
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Be cooler if they were for the 9th of June. I guess 19th is as close as they could get to the funny number.
Nice!
Averaged down on SHOP.... might be a mistake, will find out shortly lmao
Oh fuck me, yup that was a mistake.
Short at 3200. Adding half at 3202. Stop above ATH.
Almost the exact same for me. Volume is nonexistent rn so we'll probably have to wait until close for any big moves.
damn, sold my BYND call too early.
EU forcing Tesla to reduce autopilot features
Customers got this an hour or two ago. I’m sure we can expect refunds for FSD to be given out.....lmao fat chance
Shorted at 3200.25. 2/2 on bounces off 3200 so far today. More lower highs.
what's the next binary event in biotech?
https://www.biopharmcatalyst.com/calendars/fda-calendar
The last Bitcoin ATH ($19,783.06) was 2 years ago today.
One of my best accidental exits ever :D
I closed super close to that top (although it was ETH, not BTC) while on vacation in Thailand. My reason for closing was "if I lock in profit now, I can go wild and the vacation is basically free".
I’ll never forget the guy on twitter who got a second mortgage on his house to buy at ~$19k. The first little drop below his entry he was asking Twitter if he should panic sell to save his ass, and the replies were absolute chaos. I think he deleted his account when it dropped to $15k.
/ES put order just filled.. 7dte 3150’s
Starting to see $100 oil predictions now.
I think oil 70 is possible, but shale is profitable just above the current price, and I don't see the Saudi's purposely tanking their production to constrain global supply enough to balance out increased US output if it keeps rising.
Also a bunch of US producers consolidated a few years ago and they have only gotten more efficient at extracting it from shale/sand.
Yeah, fuck that.. I’m gonna have to start trading it to be able to afford to drive If that’s the case..
$100 oil puts a stop to a growing economy, and right quick.
even though this is a snail's market right now, it's sure nice to get a break from 'trade talks going well' or 'tariffs are won't be rolled back according to source', etc.
Got ptsd tho waiting for the next thing to drop
Financial sector holding everything, what is this world!
Why is GLD running up?
wtf happened to AAPL there lol
RothIRAOptions
But by saying that.. does that mean you should inverse what I just said?..
Oh my HD... maybe I shouldn’t have rolled my contracts out, oh well, that is some crazy uptrend day.
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i hate tradingview now. next best web-based broker for an amp plug-in is sierra charts?
edit: might just try CQG
I've been using CQG but it's a little flaky on mobile for me. Use TV for the charting though
CQG is my favorite on AMP for browser based
They got back to me and said they will be adding tick charts in the future so that's nice :)
Yes, but it isn't browser based. Gotta download it, and its very clunky if you don't know how to use it. Watch a couple tutorials to start
Cover beetcoin or not is the question.
What is your time frame? The monthly downtrend is intact.
Spoos look like it wants to flush. Hodling my short from 3200 until 2020 Christmas.
I have puts into next week. It just keeps holding this area though. Debating my choice now
Christmas...2020? 🤔
Flush over what time frame and why
Now I hold some PTON and some SEDG
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Today, $350c exp Fri have a low of .01 and high of .31
A cool 3100% gain there
Wow what a strong bounce from 10 AM and on
Do I grab SQ or no? That's the question
AZO at 1234.56 made me smile, like when your car odometer hits a funny number.
Oil is flying, can’t you taste the fomo in your mouth?
This feels like a squeeze.
E: I might be right for once
double inside candle on 4hr on SPX
When double inside bars form, they indicate a lack of volatility, the market is said to be resting or at a point of equilibrium.
SHOP gonna give me a heart attack lmao
Just do the thing you normally do and randomly go up 2%
Anddd there it goes, fuck me right?
So ES gonna hit VAL today or what?
/GCs bounce was right off the VAL.. just heads up..
i bought a couple micros there
can someone ELI5 why the Fed buying Treasury Bonds makes Spoos go up
Drives rates down, makes US equities TINA....there is no alternative...money pours into equities
Works every time, every time frame...
Because banks and other actors in the money markets exchange a yield producing asset (bonds) for cash when the fed take it for whatever period, and by definition they don’t like cash, they go and buy the next yield producing asset, which is shares. Valuable assets get inflated at times of cheap capital, as capital is desperate for value. What is a better asset to own as no-brainer than FANG
Ten_K_Days
Oops.
Guess it's time to go back to futures.
E: When I click the reset link
E2:
That’s bs.. if it was opened as one trade and closed as one trade its TWO TRADES..
Also, just as a heads up we keep printing ATH on the spoos with more and more bearish divergent RSI lower highs.. Keep that on your mind..
XOP puts RIP lmao ;)
TKD
How many times do we have to teach you this lesson?
STOCKS ONLY GO UP
;)
The temptation to go back to the drawing board at times of high vol and very low vol (like the one we are having) and change strategy to count for this is way too high. Watch out for that, this market condition is an exception is not the rule. Why change sth that have been working for an exception?
figuring out regime changes is difficult af at least to me
Just got short CL, but not super sure about it. Let's see what happens.
spoos feelin heavy
Everything feels heavy but seems like nothing wants to actually drop.
up 40% on my march BA 400c. lol.
Same, debating whether to close soon or let it ride into the new year
Got a weekly SHOP call, think this gets squeezed hard. Hold me.
Good luck! I'm not gonna do anything else with it today
It's burned theta on me since Friday. Hope for our sake it does.
looks like SHOP is about to squeeze in the next two minutes.
BA goes green....lol.
I was just gonna say something, was watching GC and ES anf has it in the back of my mind that there was gonna be a bounce, def slept that one..
/ES just bouncing off the poc-vah-poc-vah
GOOG & MSFT holding down the Q's....booo
OK.. I'm gonna go to work.. Missed the easy shit when I was taking my youngest son to school, oldest is sick as a dog, and I'm not down for trying to scalp this shit today.
MTCH :(
holding my shares but not sure whether to buy calls or not