The Atlantic is brewing!
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Slyvanas is not Garrosh 2.0
[MiLR GDT 4.9] Montreal Bay ExRays @ Fort Wayne Gretzkys
Pigliucci on panpsychism : How to make up philosophical problems and then “solve” them
Does this happen to anyone else when reading the books?
Question.. so.. should I keep an eye on these storms? Or is it possibly(hopefully, NOBODY getting hit) a Dorian 2.0? Turn away from everyone and go away smh
I would keep 2 eyes on these storms, just in case
"Nine" is here.
Can anyone ELI5 and explain why these storms curve east when stronger or go west when weaker?
a weaker system is less vertically deep and responds to the low-level easterly trade wind flow more. A stronger system is more vertically deep and can "feel" weaknesses in the mid-level subtropical ridge, thus travelling more poleward than a shallow, weak system.
This is one of those cases where I hope it's Florida bound because, at least based on models going that way, it wouldn't really get a chance to be more than a rainy weekend.
Yep that's what I'm thinking as well. Florida can handle a TS like it's any other day. Further north, with more time to develop, much worse.
Yeah if it climbs up the East Coast and hits the Northeast, this is gonna be really bad.
It's at the top of the NHC site too.
Wonder how big the forecast come is going to be at Day 5 with all the disagreement between the GFS and Euro. The latter is still trying to take this into the Mid-Atlantic and/or southern New England.
Eastern PA, I think I should start prepping.
Even if you don't use the supplies now, you'll use them eventually.
What does the Red X mean ? Is that a storm already ?
The x marks the general area the low is currently at.
High chance of storm formation. It isn't a tropical system yet.
I'm not really sure what to think of 95L. Most models besides GFS see this as another East Coast threat, which I have to say is not what you wanna see.
USUALLY, not always, the GFS is the model to give into the Euro. Hurricane Lane is one of the few hurricanes where the GFS got more right than the Euro.
Edit: Interests from Florida to Maine should monitor 95L.
So far through 72 hours the 12z Euro favors the eastward trend, keeping it off the east coast of Florida
12z ECMWF running.
Recon is going to investigate.
It seems to me that the 5 day cone has shifted more to the north in the new 2PM update.
The area of potential development has expanded northward because model guidance has become bifurcated, which means that it has split into two different scenarios, with the GFS continuing to favor a more westward path, while the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF favoring a more eastward path.
It should be stressed, though, that forecast uncertainty is high because the system has not yet developed a closed low-level circulation. That means that the models are making assumptions based on where they think the center of the system is located.
12z GFS is running
It still shows it heading toward the gulf. I doubt we'll have agreement between GFS and others until we get hurricane Hunter data
Well it is noon so yes it would be
I had survivors guilt after Dorian and have been spending my time organizing relief/rescue/supply drops in the Bahamas for the past week, I swear whatever storm comes better skirt its way completely around and away from the Bahamas.....
Nothing new from the NHC at 11am, it seems. Was hearing possibility of Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories at that time, as their 8am discussion suggests they may issue some later today.
Probably going to wait for the Hurricane Hunter flight this afternoon.
Do not post model data or ask for forecast advice beyond 5 days (120 hours) in the future
I mean, generally, you should always keep an eye on the weather when traveling (I’m assuming) abroad.
I wouldn't waste perfectly good worry on it, no.
The Euro is picking up a lot of chaos right now.
I think you might be getting downvoted because of your tone and lack of reasoning along with your predictions.
It’s concerning how, all of a sudden, the Euro, CMC, and ICON models all switched to having 95L stay off the Florida coast and stick around areas hit by Dorian. It doesn’t help that the cold wake left by Dorian is almost gone now; SSTs are back to 27-29 C.
While I am worried about the possibility of a Sandy 2.0, such a scenario is so far out that it’s very unlikely to end up being the case.
The seasons trends so far have been hurricanes near the East Coast. I think a Sandy or Bob 2.0 are definitely things to look out for.
The SSTs might be up, but I doubt they have much depth. Dorian would have churned up the area quite well. The surface temps are likely just that, surface temps, without much under them yet.
GFS wants to Fujiwara. Euro wants to conveyor belt.
I'm sorry, but what on earth does that mean??
Specifically, what vibes
Oh I don’t like that one west of Africa
Uh, I think the Euro might be broken, I mean sustaining TWO majors that close together on the exact same path within DAYS seems kinda preposterous to me,
Where are you seeing this? Can you link me a gif? I can't find a model that shows this anywhere.
Anything beyond 72 hours in any forecast model is fantasy land. A lot of things can change between now and 240 hours from now.
Ya the 00z CMC is just fuck my shit right up material for Florida lol.
A number of models in the latest set of runs have 95L developing off of the east coast of florida rather than in the GoM, some make it a hurricane, possibly a strong one. Curious to see if this will be a growing trend or just a hiccup.
Edit: 00z Euro absolutely wilin’. Giving some unwanted Sandy vibes, with a mini-me in tow
Well the 00z ecmwf op is certainly interesting..
ICON seems to agree with the euro too.
If I am flying in to Florida next Saturday, the 21st, should I be concerned about that orange boy? Too early to start worrying?
Way too early to worry about it.
Look at where that storm should be in 5 days and tell us if you should be concerned. Jesus
Or how bout this Saturday.
Lived through a cat 5 this past year. Literally got to walk out in the eye. Saw the blue sky’s and everything. It was one of the most surreal experiences I’ve ever had in my life.
Then I walked out into my town the next day and it looked like a bomb went off and I couldn’t get in touch with my daughter for two days and it was the worst two days of my entire life.
Thing is, less than a year later and I still enjoy tracking them on my phone, while I’m walking my dog outside with debris still in piles everywhere.
When I saw the back of the eye wall coming towards my house I just stared in complete awe and really didn’t want to go back into my house until the last second.
Craziest part was the train sound that started as the “tornado” came down and twisted the trees in my backyard and watching the walls in my house literally wobbling.
I also lived through opal when I was a kid which was nothing compared to Michael. Wish I still had the meteorology map I had hanging on my wall from when I was a kid and would use a pencil and draw the hurricane symbol over the latitude and longitude of each update that was given on the local news.
Such a weird feeling now when I see Panama City in the cone of uncertainty.
All aboard the Cane Train!
I want off this crazy train.
When your development spot is within another development spot
Yo dawg I heard you like development spots
I'm interested in what the papaya does once it reaches the Antilles, it's been a while since a storm has traversed the entire Caribbean. Well, Harvey did, but as a remnant.
Hopefully, what has been holding the Caribbean back continues.
Can someone explain the picture to me im new
These are advisories for where tropical storms have a chance of forming in the next X Days. They aren't tracks, just areas of focus for potential development. Basically your Long-long-long-long term forecast.
The red area means there is a greater than 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next five days. That doesn’t necessarily mean it will become a bad storm. It could just be a tropical depression... that is actually the most likely scenario right now.
The orange area is a greater than 40% chance of formation over five days. This is the one to watch over the next week or so. Storms that develop in that region can become very strong. Pretty much if you’re anywhere in the Caribbean or the US Coast you should keep an eye on this one. It’s nothing to worry about now, but definitely want to watch it.
Whatever develops off Africa needs to just stay the hell away from Florida, the Bahamas, or the rest of US
Ah, yes, I am here for recognizing Florida as its own entity separate from the US.
Dayum that's one fucked up Roma tomato pointing at my house. And what the hell kinda lemondrop corn dog is that?!
You made my day with that comment.
That's a corndog with a single drop of mustard.
Thanks I hate it
Thanks I hate it
A broken clock is right twice a day. A model that correctly predicts a specific event well in advance is lucky not accurate. A model that consistently predicts storms accurately in advance is more exciting, but unfortunately not something we currently have.
There have absolutely been models that predicted the final outcome of storms way in advance (a lot of people have mentioned Irma as a recent one) but if they aren't doing so consistently, you still can't trust that model because it is just as likely to be right as wrong. Think about it this way, if I gave a prediction for where every storm would make landfall as soon as it formed I would eventually nail it. That doesn't make me a prophet, it makes me lucky. You wouldn't want to trust my prediction for the next storm after I guessed right any more than you would want to trust it before I guessed right.
If I remember correctly, at one point the EURO saw a Category 4 Irma off the coast of Florida before it even left Africa.
94L is probably going to develop but be significantly limited by proximity to land. However, if it develops earlier than late Saturday/early Sunday, it could become a stronger tropical storm than what models are currently calling for. 96L (the second tropical wave) looks like it could become a hurricane threat to some part of the Caribbean, either the Greater Antilles or Central America.
So from left to right these disturbances are 94L, 95L, and 96L?
The euro model has this hitting as a strong hurricane in 10 days. The one behind 95l and this should be taken with a grain of salt
God I hope this avoids Panama City
It likely wouldn't be more than a tropical depression or a weak TS
I freaking hate this time of the year
Cool. I hate Hurricane season.
I actually love hurricane season. New brews in the Atlantic excite me. Always have - even as a child. My dad does too so I guess that’s why. He would be a storm chaser in a heartbeat if he could. Obviously I hate the death and destruction that come with them, but the adrenaline that comes with it is exciting...
That’s not to say I don’t prepare and would (maybe) evacuate if it was too high of a Cat coming at us...
That one just coming off Africa is the one that really needs watching
Not the one expected to be in the gulf next week?
Yeah, I just looked at the GFS and Euro runs of it and it looks like its going to finish destroying what Dorian missed.
That’s a funny way of spelling Hurricane Floyd.
Edited to update to 2pm outlook
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time. However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward over the tropical Atlantic.
No model has 95L becoming really anything. The one behind it, however....
What is 95L?
95L may became strong when it gets to the gulf. It's defintly gonna pass over Florida weak though.