lets talk about how fucked intel really are

As each month goes by I'm coming to a conclusion Intel are really fucked. Does the industry understand the situation Intel are in?

Intel is kind of like GM in the 70s. They were the king of the hill but look at those pesky Japanese cars coming off of the cargo ships.
Which ironically, many of those import cars from Asia were rust buckets when they first landed.
This situation also seemingly parallels Kodak and the rise and fall of their empire
I recall hearing that over the last few CEO's (Otellini, Finance background, 2005-2013, Krzanich, Ops background, 2013-2018, and Swan, Finance background, 2018 - ?), Intel's top management alienated a LOT of the lifer technical folks who really delivered the goods. A lot of them got the message, accepted their "packages", and sailed off into the sunset. This helped the bottom line, you see, and since Intel had total market dominance, why waste money on those guys when you can waste it instead on a succession of disastrous acquisitions? Intel's vaunted, second to none technical team may well now be a shadow of its former self; good enough to keep the 14 nm gears turning, but not to really forge ahead at the cutting edge of technology. And no, Keller and Koduri can't make up for the giant loss of human process expertise during the complacent, decade-long lull of AMD's appearing to be stuck forever in Bulldozer mediocrity. Those days are gone! My key question going forward is whether AMD has defensible IP around the chiplet architecture. If they do, then I would concur that Intel is truly fucked.
its not just the chiplet architecture but the Infinity fabric tech too. The only way to increase performance for the next decade or two is adding cores. Monolithic dies can't compete, not when AMD will have 64 cores on consumer platfrom in the future.
If Intel coudn't create chiplets then every intel employee would be selling there stock
A few days ago I made a comment about reading something similar to this, but felt a bit light on info because I wasn't sure if it had taken on some level of Chinese whispers and I'd maybe only read it on this sub or somewhere similar. Do you have a better source for it?
I wonder how Keller is feeling there.
I think AMD and Intel have patent-sharing agreements. Neither could build x86/x64 processors without infringing on the other's patents. The patents are only really valuable against upstart competitors.
Intel will come back with something great, they have the money and the right people. AMD can't afford any mistakes right now if they want to compete when Intel comes back. I trust Lisa to keep AMD on track and competitive with Intel.
Thing is you say Intel has the right people but do they really? Would they even be in this position if they had the right people. Thing about large company's is that people stay in power because of what they did in the past and suck all the innovation out of the people that could make a difference in the future. Intel may need to really fail and clean house before they can be great again.
Intel is task to do 5G and they fail.
Edit : now we licensing 5G from the Chinese.
they under allot of pressure also, even if they come back with something great by then the goal post would have been moved to zen4/5
The billion dollars question is will intel 7nm has the same capacity and yield as 14nm node if answer no. Intel future is doom. Intel trying to hire more engineers to make 7nm working its not about that. This is where money cannot buy. 7nm is just a fantasy term given by intel, it could be the real 10nm but nothing close to 7nm. Samsung has money too and their engineers are not lazy at all and still behind TSMC. Samsung make success mobile business where Intel fail in this market. If samsung cannot make their smaller node working then intel will face similar problem. Intel should stop lying and tell the truth to their investors. Next big thing intel will focus is probing engineers from companies, increase marketing, bribing by giving discount and making future valid excuses on node progression.
Never count out Intel. Sunny Cove is 18% higher IPC than Skylake. It's only held back by the dismal 10nm process.
Jim Keller pretty much said that Golden Cove will have massive IPC improvement. If their 7nm process is half way decent, Intel will strike back.
AMD came back from years of Bulldozer with Jim Keller, with a tiny budget. Now Keller has all the R&D budget he needs. Intel is still dangerous.
Those IPC improvements are just esseiyally from making the core bigger, which is why 10nm was required. So it's not really a huge existential deal for Amd, there is no magic bullet. If you have the fab tech to justify larger cores you can get the performance. I mean hell you could build a quad core ccd same size as zen2 ccd and get like 40% IPC.
intel arch is tied heavily to their node. since the node was a bust you can't say anyhting about sunny cove. No good sunny cove having anything better when we not even taking in consideration of it missing an igpu and yields so bad that they probably not even making any money of them.
and the future is parallel programming so have 18% better IPC won't helps when AMD stuffs 300% more cores
You are spot on, Amd is going to capture at least 50 percent of the cpu market by 2021. This half decade will go down in history as one of the best examples of how important it is to have a good Ceo.
royally fucked.
Why would AMD have only then 50% market share when already now all the HPC deals (cray etc) are won by AMD. I wanna know who is still choosing Intel ? (excluding laptops). If 10nm is so hard for them, how would 7nm work out?
We just bought a 96 core Intel cluster at work for an engineering application. A lot* of people in my field are in a similar boat, despite me advocating for amd.
At the end of the day, Intel has more mindshare, better guarantees that the software will work (amd is still relatively weak on the software and validation side for commercial), better marketing, and a better sales network.
Despite amd having a better product stack across the board, they face an uphill sales ramp battle... Something this sub really doesn't understand.
Intel still has the volume, ecosystem maturity, long standing partnerships etc. It's not that simple.
Because 10nm is not necessarily indicator for 7nm progress.
And because of what I like to call inertia of market share.
And becuase Intel used to bribe and paid OEMs to not use AMD in the past.
And because Jim Keller is there to try turnaround all shitty designs from caple of years behind.
To be fair - AMD bull and enthusiast here, but Lisa has to be prepared.
the server industry is tied to a 6 year contract with Intel I think, so it'll take 3 years before AMD is able to even have 50% of that market, by which time Intel should be stronger.
but your last point is exactly my thoughts, everyone saying they failed on 10nm because they went to aggressive, so how is going to 7nm not even a bigger gamble? lol
and like i've mentioned the industry have basically shown EUV is what will take over, this wasn't guaranteed a year ago, samsung made a big bet and bought like the next years production from the only vendor making them.
imagine AMD at 50% wow
Same. I've converted three people to Ryzen systems this time around.
I want to believe you, but there is currently only 1 genuinely decent laptop with AMD chipset in it.
Intel... 100s to choose from.
I think AMD is a long way from crushing the competition.
Sales is hard. These manufacturers are already firmly in bed with Intel, and sometimes, even if your product is less expensive, and better, It can still be extremely difficult to get people to give it a try.
My thoughts on the situation, as a guy whos been ready to buy an AMD gaming laptop for video editing since LAST September.
True, but the real war has always been in the HPC, server, and cloud space. Zen was designed with that in mind right from the get go.
Laptops, notebooks is important, but much less important than you'd think.
They have a cross license agreement. Don't think there is anything Intel could do to be sued for infringement by AMD. The opposite is true as well.
A patent litigation between these two would be pointless, neither could build x86(64) CPUs without each other. Which is why you will never see patent disputes in x86 space.
i doubt the agreement is anything to do with zen. they can't just copy zen arch.
Intel will continue to fake it, until they make up. So far they have done this for a few years, without people seing through them. I think they will just continue with dirty tactics and pretend to have something soon, and people will belive them. and some will wait for intel, rater than going with amd now...
It wont be easy going forward.
yup pretty much my conclusion but adding the fact that its close to the time they need to show something or as each month go by more and more people are waking up to the fact intel have no hands. They are certain to be behind on both arch and node for the next 2 generations.
Lisa su has many plans against intel. You guys worry too much. Im sure Lisu su is the top 1% she aint dumb letting intel come bacj.
You can't compare manufacturing nodes by their size. There is no standard on how you measure. We're at such small numbers now that it makes a huge difference how you measure. Back on 120nm it didn't make any difference. Because we're talking about is it 120nm or 123nm?
Intel's 10nm is about the same size as TSMC's 7nm. Intel has different teams working on each nodes. Just because one team didn't do well with 10nm doesn't mean they'll have the same trouble with the next process.
Intel's 7nm is equal to TSMC's 5nm.
Think about this. Performance and efficiency-wise Intel is able to compete whilst being on 14nm. They're not in a comfortable spot but they're not in a terrible situation.
Also with every node shrink getting closer to that singular atomic level, there are less and less gains. Being one node behind isn't like 10 years ago. Again, Intel itself is proof of it.
The issue Intel mainly has isn't "omg we're not on 10nm! We have no performance". It's about the ability to give a supply. Had their 14nm fabs been unlimited in supply they'd have no problem. But since everything was moving to 14nm, as 10nm should have been ready, it has caused issues. Intel has been having to move chipsets back to 22(?)nm to free up the 14nm.
Don't look at things in a single dimension. I.e. Intel not 7nm and not 5nm so Intel is really fucked.
Lastly, the other issue for larger chips is that Intel has been continuing the difficult task of putting all cores on the same die. It makes yields worse as the odds of having 1 bad core, or 1 core not clocking high is probable. Even worse if your 10nm node is lacking and the opposite of mature. I feel this is a much larger issue than nothing being on 7-10nm.
real issue is scale. AMD's arch scales (better yields...low cost), intel monolithic dies do not scale
and 7nmTSMC = 10nIntel, I get that so basically Intel are one full node behind. Which means there chips are more power hungry
the thing is in the future Intel will have 14nm then 7nm fabs, missing 10nm fabs
while TSMC will have 14nm, 10nm, 7nm, and by that time 5nm fabs
If Intel's 7nm fab isn't yielding good or is delayed because of unforseen shit like 10nm they are royal fucked, TSMC has the luxary of fucking up a node now.