MY friend is a white suburban woman. She was the ONLY one in her family that voted for trump in 2016. Her entire family is Republican. They chose to vote for the Libertarian.
They constantly tease her when (which is every day) trump does something inappropriate.
She is planning to vote for trump again.
So much for suburban women. I have several other suburban women who feel the same.
Sometimes I wonder how your polling works.
I have never been polled nor have any of my friends.
Oh, but wait, we are not a purple state.
2
There is a solution that can neutralize the Electoral College before it is retired.
Trump is an anchor around Republicans down ballot.
Trump is much harder for the Russians to elect in 2020 than 2016, but doable even with a larger popular vote deficit given the Electoral College, using Russian tactics.
Trump will likely face a far larger popular vote deficit in 2020.
The only way he can win is by Russian statecraft analyzing the internal Republican polling data for the Electoral College, and with updated stolen psychographic profiles from social media and machine learning/neural network techniques, they can target the requisite voters in purple states to win with a certain level of statistical confidence.
The difference in 2020 is that Democrats know this and can do the exact same thing, but far more easily than can Trump - and without the Russians.
The Democratic candidate will likely win the popular vote.
What Democrats, private universities and companies must do is use Democratic private polling data, and psychographic profiles from unstructured social media data, etc., derived from artificial intelligence techniques, to target the requisite voters in blue, red and purple states to ensure the Electoral College vote is won with a high level of confidence - along with the popular vote.
Statistical techniques for evaluating voting irregularities, and paper ballots where they exist, will serve as voter confirmation.
We can protect American Democracy now.
2
Old saying: “You dance with the one that brung you.” It’s too late for the GOP to switch partners now, as that would be like admitting they were wrong all along. They are going to go down with their MAGA hats on.
4
"How Will Republicans Run in 2020?" If they are smart, they will think beyond 2020 and run in the opposite direction. Is Trump and his base the tare they want to carry? Even if he were to win (ugh!!!) in 2020, he'd be a lame duck. How many Republicans want to pick up his divisive, inflammatory, racist mantle and run with it?
I see the lap dogs defend him. But you don't really hear any of them justify who he is and what he does.
1
Was Mitt Romney recently hinting? In a sort of round about way?
Will Republicans turn into anti-Trumpers before Christman? Will Democracy's watershed year, 2020, 8 weeks hence, blow the lid off the Trump presidency and cause even more anxiety in red states? Are we talking here about Red and Blue like we talked about the South and the North, the Confederacy and the Union way back in 1860? Republicans today are still hanging on by gosh and by golly to Trump's ill-fitting racist coattails. The G.O.P. 's Orange Goose won't take a victory lap next year.
See what's happening across the pond. The Boris Johnson Brexits and anti-Brexits mirror the grotesque anxiety of our divided dystopian times. Meanwhile climate-change is afoot on Earth while political wrangling among the nations goes on during this 21st century. Mother Nature and Father Time will have the last laugh, not people and politicians. Saving the earth is a worthier cause for our descendants than today's social media transmissions of political parties which is so much chaff in the wind.
How ? Lie, Cheat and Steal. The Usual.
DUH.
4
collins is DOA and never should have ever been elected in the first place, collins is the epitome of a hypocrite.
How about the Republican Party for once choosing country over party, the Constitution over electability and doing what is right?
Impeach and convict a President who used bribery and extortion for political gains and jeopardized our National Security! And just as importantly insure that all members of his administration who participated in this scandal including the AG, the Secretary of State, the VP face justice as well with dismissal from office and then a time with the courts of law.
In Congressional elections defeat in primaries those Republicans who supported this corruption.
Above all accept the political consequences of such a scandal and renounce in the future campaigning with the demagoguery and smear techniques of Trump and Roger Stone.
Otherwise the Republican Party will remain co-conspirators to this corruption.
Fox News must lose its license if it remains a propaganda vehicle for the right wing. It must abide by a strict code of journalism and seek the truth.
Otherwise it should go out of existence.
Our democracy and Constitution are much more important than party victories!
4
There is no incentive for Red State Republicans to oppose Trump, except possibly their conscience and values if applicable. Politically, it's clearly the wrong move.
Even if a clear majority of voters in a politicians district or area disapproves of Trump. When a Republican goes anti-Trump, they may win the praise and sympathy of democratic-leaning voters. Bot almost none of these voters will vote for that candidate, because they'll still prefer the Democrat on the ballot. So the Republican has won nothing except warm words.
But he or she will have lost a portion of the base, and even if that portion is small, it will always be enough to totally doom the Republican.
In some cases the Republican may also doom himself by aligning with Trump, and there is just no way out for them. But going anti-Trump will always be the certain losing move. Except in blue states or districts where voters are really unhappy with the Democratic candidate for some reason, like a local scandal.
McConnell and other senate Republicans care far more about retaining their own power than they do about the difference between President Trump and President Pence. Democrats should attack Republicans' senate majority.
If Democrats do it right, Trump will not be on the ballot. The key to making that happen is impeachment politics.
First, Democrats need to reverse their feckless impulse to end impeachment before Christmas. Let it take as long as it needs. Pursue every subpoena, and get testimony. Dropping the Bolton subpoena was crazy. Democrats need testimony, from Bolton, Barr, Mulvaney, Pompeo, Perry, Giuliani, Giuliani's thug clients, Kushner, Trump, Jr., Mattis, and a long list of others. Obstructive witnesses should be made to understand they face criminal charges after 2020.
Also, Democrats need to revive the obstruction counts from the Mueller report. Investigate all of them. Bring Russia back into it.
Each obstruction, each delay in court, works to Democrats' advantage. Investigative proliferation works to Democrats' advantage.
Everything should be done to prolong the campaign exposure of weaker Republican senate candidates. Democrats need move polling numbers on only 5 or 6 senate incumbents into the danger zone. When that happens, it will motivate McConnell to consider self-protection ahead of Trump protection, and as fast as possible. McConnell has the power to dump Trump. Force him to do it.
1
"Trump fatigue." His insanity is exhausting. Relief is only a click of a voting-switch away.
5
How will the GOP run? I can tell you: tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts; overturn Roe V. Wade; drastically limit immigration, and at the same time, vilify them; trade wars; unmitigated gun sales and ownership; more military spending; cut regulations; cut the safety net; deny climate change is a thing... You know, all the things that make America great!
17
Today's GOP, in its blind personal allegiance to Trump, has rendered itself toxic. They deserve the toxic shock the voters will administer to them at the voting booth.
7
I grew up outside NYC, went to UCLA for grad school, worked in the institutional investment field there for two decades and then back to Boston in the same role.
In my ever growing success into the upper eshelon, I was amazed at the outright racism, sexism and misogyny so frequently and blatantly offered in meetings, briefings, and conversations.
Why? Becuase too many wannabes from downstream schools wanted to show their bones by agreeing with the Yalies, Crimson, Wharton "boyz".
We upper echelon WASPs are still in place.
8
How will the GOP run?
Hopefully off the cliff into oblivion.
12
Another article making the assumption that Trump will be on the ballot in 2020. Sure there is a significant chance that he will be. But there is an equally significant chance that he won’t. Well, all these pundits have to find something to write about.
1
Another article making the assumption that Trump will be on the ballot in 2020. Sure there is a significant chance that he will be. But there is an equally significant chance that he won’t. Well, all these pundits have to find something to write about.
Democrats are outraged that mainstream Republicans align with Trump. They are oblivious. Trump appoints the head of the Republican National Committee. The RNC has raised $334 million for upcoming elections, and it's got more than a year to see if it can break a billion. The RNC is the lifeblood for virtually every Republican lawmaker. And according to a survey conducted by Captain Obvious, getting elected is a high priority for at least half of those serving in Congress. (Some suspect that it's even more than a half.)
Just because Democrats are committed to doing the right thing and Trump is committed to doing the wrong thing doesn't mean that Democrats have to be monumentally naive. Let me clue you in. Most Republicans believe that it is better to get $10 million from the RNC than to get $1.75.
2
Lincoln understood that "a house divided against itself cannot stand." It is a huge miscalculation on the part of the GOP to think that the country is fine with being divided, and anything they do to make that division worse will be bad for the party--and that includes supporting the divider-in-chief, Trump.
If they thought Virginia was a slaughter, just wait until next November.
7
I voted for Martha McSally in Arizona, more than once. When someone on her 'team' called to ask me to vote for her again, I listened. He kept saying Trump. I told him if you don't stop saying Trump I will not vote for her again (I was in the military when she refused to wear Islamic clothing because she was a woman). I am a woman. But he doubled down on Trump. I hung up saying I am not voting for Trump. Her current ads in Arizona do not mention Trump. I may vote for her despite that phone call from her campaign. But, that is how I see the 2020 Republicans running. Those who cling to Trump, and those who don't.
2
@athena I am from Arizona, too. Martha McSally has been widely attacked for being all over the place on health care and, in particular, on pre-existing conditions. Every major newspaper in the state has reported how she has waffled. It is fact, not partisan argument. I think she is two-faced. But you may disagree. But you should know,Trump is not the only issue.
6
If history and current behavior tells us anything about the GOP its that they are banking on gerrymandering, voter suppression, and/or the potential that Trump and Putin will be successful in compromising the integrity of our elections.
I would love to see democrats push forward an elections security bill that would force members of the GOP house to simultaneously defend an indefensible position with Trump AND opposition to election security.
9
Republicans will run their "2020 and beyond" campaigns through Fox, if they are smart. At Fox they will find a comfy warm Foxhole, where the Trumps and other party faithfuls are insulated from investigations and criticism. Fox works to soften the impact of controversial subjects regarding conservatives. Their headlines are carefully controlled to utilize propaganda-like statements and reactions from their hosts and journalists. These statements of opinions cannot be sorted from facts by a large portion of viewers. It is like Little China. They have pretty good control over what come into the News reels over there.
There are only a few things that would penetrate this propaganda shield. The definition of conservative is getting smaller and smaller. The Beshear/Bevins race shows that there is a large slice of the electorate, enough to decide any race, that feels abandoned by both major parties. Another factor that will increase defection is a drop in market performance or the economy.
6
Trump will win reelection easily. How do I know? I am a moderate Repub who voted against Trump in 2016. I am so furious at the Dems for what they did to Kavanaugh as well as with the impeachment over this silly issue (where no crime was committed), and with the media's biased coverage, that I will hold my nose and vote for Trump in the next election. It doesn't help Dems that their candidates are the most extreme that they have ever have. The author notes McConnell's advice is to emphasize that Repubs are the "firewall that saves the country from socialism" but it is the truth. Warren is proposing "free everything" plans that are shocking in their lack of understanding of basic math, and yet the media will not even challenge her on it. And it is absolutely incredible that in this day and age we are actually hearing from socialists like Sanders and AOC (now demonizing Bill Gates of all people, which is just scary). Say what you will about Trump and he is certainly not Presidential, but I don't want socialism. If I feel this way as a moderate there must be a lot of others feeling the same way.
3
@R.P.
I suspect there are some who feel as you do.
But I also suspect that there are many who thought they'd give Orange a try in 2016 and are now rather embarrassed that they did, and who, while they might not admit it, will quietly vote against him in 2020.
9
@R.P.
I am a moderate too, who could have voted for a moderate republican. I will vote against Trump and republicans. I believe that both Warren and Sanders have untapped youthful voters, who can breathe life into the party. I encourage the democratic party to leave people like you behind. The reason is that they need to build a faithful core, who will vote for the best candidate whether it is a woman, man, black, white, hispanic or asian. The thought of socialism does not scare me more than white supremacy, bigotry, plutocracy and the fraying of the constitution. Then there is the fact that funding for roads and education have been abandoned for large tax breaks. 2020 will definitely be a war of core values!
Clinton could not win, because moderates do not inspire voters in either party. That is why we swing back and forth. Are there any more moderates left in the republican party? Those times are over. Time to build roads (literally), increase wages and fund education. I guess that makes me a moderate and a socialist.
35
@R.P.
So Trump will win reelection easily because you want him to. Because everyone feels just like you. And as for a “lack of understanding of basic math,” what about Trump’s tax cuts that are increasing the deficits exponentially? The tax cuts that “would pay for themselves.” But then the deficits were only a problem when Obama was president. Right?
12