An undecided voter today is fundamentally unable to choose between "Ignorance is truth" and "the truth shall make you free".
The political power of this group is exhibit A in the case that American democracy is dead.
9
Curious as to why Pete Buttigieg is often not even mentioned in NYT articles as competitive, but polling seems to show that he is in the top 5.
Buttigieg is the candidate who wants Medicare For All...Who Want It, which is much less frightening to many voters.
Buttigieg has my vote - however, I will vote for the Democrat who wins the Primary - no question.
6
I went to bed 2016 thinking the pollsters and ubiquitous talking had a clue. They didn't.
1
Only a small portion of the voting age population in Kentucky voted last night. Why?
3
In the 1930's H.L. Mencken, a columnist, said, "nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people."
48
@elshifman Dems have to win the election with the voters we have, not the voters they wish we had. Calling them stupid is not a winning strategy.
10
I am flummoxed that *ANYONE* supports Trump. Period.
8
Dems would be un-wise to ignore these data. While the primaries are known to be driven by the left in the Dem party and by the right in the Trumplican party (formerly the GOP), these data suggest that a Dem from the "progressive" wing of the party is more likely to result in Trump's re-election. The moderate "lane" has been filled by Biden, and more recently Buttigieg to the exclusion of other "moderates" - Klobuchar, Booker, Bullock and Bennett. Ignoring the mid-country moderates Klobuchar, Bennett & Bullock who have a track record of winning in "red" or "purple" states seems to be naive at best and suicidal at worst. While Warren or Sanders will energize the progressive wing of the Dems, these voters are not found in the true "swing" voters needed to win the "battleground" states. As has been pointed out by many others, increased progressive turnout in solidly "blue" states will not erase the advantage the GOP has in the electoral college. Dems ignore this fact at their own, and the country's, peril. The time for philosophical "purity" is not now; Dems must practice the art of the possible and realize that "better" or "best" is often the enemy of "good". Yes, vote for change but understand that incremental change is better than no change. Job-1 is to remove Trump from the WH; nominating a moderate Dem is more likely to accomplish this goal.
11
Elizabeth Warren is a POPULIST, not a Progressive. She is out there battling and fighting for the 98% Population of People against the 2% Fat Cat Over-Privileged ELITES. And she is gradually gathering the energy of the people to back her. Just like another liberal from MASS - RFK.
A Progressive is interested in creating better infrastructure, more advanced science, better financial arrangements and choices, modernizing health care, etc etc Right now no one is an actual Progressive candidate. JFK was Progressive, RFK was not.
12 more months to go!
3
Based on these stats I will have to turn away from Elizabeth and Bernie because they cannot be elected. My ideal team without one of them would be Pete and Amy. I don't think Joe can perform consistently or effectively through the campaign.
8
One individual interviewed stated that "I mostly just care about policies, because at the end of the day, that’s what affects people.” I would disagree. We have been deeply affected both on a personal level and on the level of our communities and our country, by the man in the White House. For three years we have been exposed daily to tweets that diminish and disparage and to behavior that we would not tolerate in our children. It will be for future generations to measure the impact.
11
Great! Sarcasm at the highest level.
1
Miller and Cohn have done all of us a great service by focusing on the people and issues that will decide the next Presidential election. Most telling, to me, was the percentages that do NOT want a liberal/progressive candidate to become President. They DO want a moderate. Everyone should keep that in mind.
6
YES!!!
finally an article that addresses this head on. To the disbelief of many, the only reason trump was elected is not because of his “base” but because of the many disillusioned fiscally conservative socially liberal moderates. There are still a significant number is us who still won’t vote for the usual democratic alternatives but have seen Trump’s true disgusting ugly more-than-we-expected immoral crazy side. That’s where the election lies. PLEASE give us a republican alternative to run against Trump!! Even the republican senators would secretly vote for the alternative!!!!!!
2
In other (and shorter) words, the reporter has no idea what swing voters want because they don't know themselves. To the reporter they seem like popcorn-- all over the place. Maybe that's because they are.
11
"The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it."
Albert Einstein
13
I think it's too early to test battleground voters where the GOP has an advantage - they have one candidate. Dems are undecided and the candidates are still getting acquainted with voters.
I think the error that NYT is making is choosing the 3 oldies - Biden, Sanders, Warren.
Wonder if Buttigieg and Klobuchar, the youngers candidates, would make a difference.
Take this poll again in March and include the more likely candidates. I think Warren and Sanders are too far left, and Biden does not energize.
7
How about a system where you can lose the election by 3,000,000 ballots and be declared the winner !!!
If you saw two lines of people, one of the lines is over a thousand miles longer than the other. They are both voting for different candidates.
Who would you say would be the winner of the election?
A line of 3,000,000 people is over a thousand miles long.
5
The Electoral College usurped my vote in 2016. We must eradicate this bulwark against Democracy. Tear this monstrosity out of the earth by the roots!
11
Amy Klobuchar and Biden are the only qualified candidates. Warren and Sanders will fail against Trump, they’re just too scary left wing and by and large the economy that they want to trash is excellent for anyone who wants to work. Buttigieg could have been a good candidate if he had any more experience beyond being the mayor of a dinky mid-west city. The rest are forgettable. I’m sorta hoping that Faux-caohontas gets the nomination, she’ll go down in flames.
4
What should be on the top of every voter's priority list should be the elimination of Trump and his Republican lackeys from office in order to demonstrate that no man is above the law and to preserve our Constitutional form of government. Apparently that is of any importance to a huge percentage of the population . Scary indeed.
8
“Swing voters” - those who have little capacity for informing themselves or any critical thinking, are the ones who decide the election and our futures.
Great system! The founding fathers are spinning in their graves.
11
Trump might not win by A “SLIVER” of the electorate? Should such a result, then, turn out to be our greatest national shame?
3
Get out there and vote. It is the only way we make change in our broken system. The least any of us can do to make the change we seek is to get out and vote at every single election. And Epstein did not kill himself.
5
They're not undecided. They're Republicans.
5
With the electoral college and such few battleground states, it’s possible 10% of the electorate will decide the outcome. It’s always close and always will. Considering the economy and stock market are doing extremely well, no new wars, lower taxes, securing border, etc etc, I don’t think any Democrat running has a pathway to victory. Every Democrat proposal involves raising taxes on middle class families, just look at Warren’s 52 Trillion price tag for example. Even SNL mocked her. She has gone from conservative to liberal to progressive and from white to Native American and back to white. She lied about leaving her first teaching gig. It’s not misogyny, it’s she isn’t qualified and is a borderline lunatic.
5
The Electoral College needs to be abolished. Three million more voters chose Hillary Clinton as our president and that is who should be president. Maybe one day we will actually be a democracy.
6
Many decades ago I read a science fiction story set in the future and focusing on election day. Through supercomputers and AI, the US in the future picks a completely typical person to vote, and only that person votes. Since that person is typical, he/she is the common denominator of all and thus may be said to represent everyone else. So on election day only that person votes; everyone else stays home. And since everyone knows that the voter is totally average, all accept the voter's vote as their vote. I think we should institute that--and not just because it will save mucho mucho, We wouldn't have to follow all this narcissistic acting out, all this avalanche of news, all this feeling of imminent doom every day.
2
“There are plenty of things not to like about Trump, because he says things that are not nice and potentially racist,” said Mr. Basart, who is Latino. “I care somewhat about those things, but I mostly just care about policies, because at the end of the day, that’s what affects people.” I suspect that this man has very little knowledge of what Trump's 'policies' are. Or, there truly is something fundamentally wrong in USA, and it is in its death throes. Time will tell.
7
In two of the five last presidential elections, the candidate with the fewer votes won the electoral college. Thus, we got Dubya and The Donald. Any chance we can decide who becomes President by just counting votes?
6
I hope these undecided voters take a long hard look and vote for our president. He has made our country so much better in the three years in office. Employment numbers are up, the economy is robust and 401ks are stronger than ever. And our illegal immigration numbers are down and President Trump got his wall. He certainly has made America great again snd wants to go on making it great his second term. Let's vote for him so he can succeed.
1
"Yet Mr. Trump’s approval rating is positive among these nonwhite persuadable voters, with 50 percent saying they approve and 44 percent saying they disapprove. A majority opposes an assault weapons ban. They want a more moderate Democrat, 69-26, over a liberal, even as they demand fundamental change, and 35 percent self-identify as conservative."
They want fundamental change from a moderate? There is simply no way for any candidate to thread this needle.
4
Even after reading all these comments, I am still leaning heavily toward voting for Elizabeth Warren in the primary.
3
I always thought if just minorities, women, and all other groups that have lost ground under the current policies (most people not billionaires) or who have been insulted by or ashamed of trump (that should be many more people), would get out and vote, we would certainly get rid of trump. Wonder how that is not true. Why dont people want honesty in government or a better economy or less pollution or better medical care or better access to education?
3
This would be interesting if we didn't already know that the occupant of the White House is almost certainly about to lose the popular vote. The sooner enough states sign onto the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, the faster the US will be on track to becoming a democracy.
6
ok but that is not happening anytime soon so we have to deal with the current problem next year, which is that Dems have to put up a moderate.
1
So there a fairly large number of alleged voters who claim to have voted for Trump after supposedly voting for Obama in at least the prior two presidential elections.
And because of these allegations, claims and suppositions Dems must nominate a candidate satisfactory to this bunch or they'll re-elect Trump, should they remember to vote.
Some people think there are voters who are less than honest with pollsters. It is supposed to be a secret ballot, after all. I'm beginning to suspect some (or many) of these Obama-Obama-Trump voters are putting us on.
8
Quite funny but not surprising to read the comments of the far left. The world is ending, democracy is ending, scrap the electoral college, etc all because their candidate lost last time.
The same people accuse Trump of trying to be a dictator but support Warren and Sanders forcing everyone in the country into socialized medicine rather than having a choice and deciding for themselve as Joe Biden and Pete B. suggest.
4
@Reader In Wash, DC Admit it... if two of the past three presidents were democrats who lost the popular vote, you'd be supporting the Amendment that by now would have been pushed through by the republicans.
5
I am one of those centrist college-educated white men who don't like Trump but won't vote for Warren or Sanders. I'll leave the presidential ballot blank if one of them is the nominee. I would vote without enthusiasm for Biden, Buttigieg, or Harris.
In this case it won't matter because I'm in a very blue state, but voters with similar views in swing states are a pot of gold.
Come on, Democrats. Give us a moderate. We're begging you.
But I don't think you will. Instead you'll give us 4 more years of Trump.
5
We gave you a moderate last time and she lost why would we do that again.
6
"They want a more moderate Democrat, 69-26, over a liberal, even as they demand fundamental change"
At first view, that seems inconsistent.
It can make sense. They may want fundamental changes in policy, yet be uncomfortable with the narrow appeals to identity groups.
"Liberal" has been for many tarred with the idea of "Only for blacks, but not for me." Of course that isn't true, but it is what the Republicans were threatening when they demonized the word "liberal" and they got away with that among too many voters.
4
Thank you for your analysis that Biden or other moderate Democrat must be our candidate … if Democrats want to WIN.
This has already been tested!
The 2018 BLUE Wave in the House was overwhelming won by Moderate Democrats, with the few Progressives endorsed by Sanders running almost entirely in safe Blue districts.
I say this as a person who could live under socialism personally. But in a country where large numbers of people are strongly conservative … I think swinging so far left is a major risk that the Republicans would easily exploit in the powerful advertising machine.
Godspeed Biden or Klobuchar, or any other moderate Democrat.
This election -- Warren and Sanders are GIFTS to Republicans!
1
Swing voters, the push to the center-- we keep hearing this narrative. A better explanation for what happened in 2016 was the Dems put up a very unpopular candidate, and many of their voters stayed home. Exciting the base and getting out the vote is far more important than trying to thread the needle and get so-called moderates.
5
We have not had the first primary yet and the pundits are in full panic mode. Dear reader please bear in mind that everything is speculation until the primaries begin to unfold.
11
I cannot understand voters who can't decide between Trump and a Democratic candidate because the differences are so stark. Authoritarianism versus democracy. denial of climate change vs action to fight climate change, white supremacy versus multiculturalism, no regard for the the truth versus regard for the truth, etc. I don't understand what values the undecideds have that makes it so difficult to decide whether to support Trump or a Democratic candidate. But the polls show these people do exist whether it is comprehensible or not.
17
in order to understand those stark differences, you need to be both properly educated and properly informed. Most areas in this country invest in neither for their populations. Hence, easily manipulated people who are utilized to amplify the power of oligarchs in a democratic system.
2
Seems it’s a failure of empathy on your pet. I suggest leaving your silo and considering how somebody who has different circumstances and background than yin views the world.
1
@Bob: A conundrum of epic proportions.
The Democrats are blowing it again.
With Biden - a terrible candidate, however moderate - fading fast and Warren surging, its seems the only questions left are by how wide a margin Trump will win reelection, and what excuse Democrats will make this time around: bigotry, misogyny, Russians, stupidity, the Electoral College, unwokeness.
It is always the failure of the unwashed masses to fail to see the obvious moral and intellectual superiority of Democrats which is to blame. If only enough voters were up to Democrats' standards!
This really depressing.
15
I am looking at the "live" results being reported by the NYT and Vox. They are the opposite of one another! NYT shows Bevin ahead, Vox shows Beshear ahead. So who is right?
1
So far none of Trump's policies have succeeded! None !! Mexico Never Paid for the Wall. NK never denuclearized. The trade war failed,as did the Gov't Shutdown. The Deficit is soaring and he's golfed more than any President. We do not have better more affordable Health Care. The Kurds are running for their lives after our sudden pullout in Syria. The Trump Administration has an 80% turnover rate...and ...on and on..All failures. What are Trump supporters supporting? Failed Policies? MAGA?? Where is it?? Trump support is ridiculous...there's nothing to support...and that's ...NO ALTERNATIVE FACT !!!
12
How can a voter be "undecided" in this upcoming election. Can people be so stupid that that they can't see the difference between the parties and the candidates? Let me answer my own question. YES. And these fools are the ones who are going to decide the winner? Again, the answer is YES. to borrow a line from Scrooge, "I'll go to Bedlam."
9
Juries on a widely publicized case are selected based on the same criteria, because knowing anything might render them "prejudiced". Knowing nothing and having even less curiosity characterizes theses jurors and these "undecideds". The defendant, usually at the behest of their lawyer is asked to put their life in the hands of halfwits and so has our nation.
8
Why is this such a surprise? Many people are turned off by the Democrats' far-left tilt, and its not-so-subtle rebuffing of white people and voters in our society. Why talk about racism while being that way about Caucasians? I can't believe that after taking a drubbing in the Midwest in 2016 -- with many two-time Obama voters going for Trump -- that the Democrats let loose and allowed the militants (i.e. the Squad) to take over the party's direction and leadership. It was an unforced error and shows no one's minding the store. Now, who's expecting these moderate-conservative persuadable voters to buy into Warren's proposed government program that costs $52 trillion and won't cost middle class taxpayers "a penny," or Sanders' multi-trillion plan? I can't see even one courageous Democrat attempting to truly challenge this leftist mess, aside from Tulsi Gabbard -- someone who Hillary Clinton claims is a Russian bot!
7
One of those people who only listens to popular culture, pundits and their friends. I’m looking through these comments for people who actually talk policy facts.
@Scott
And the right wing extremism, mass murders, people in cages while supporting white supremacy isn’t a turn off?
The left provides plans and solutions yet I see nothing from the right but hate and vitriolic poison.
2
if you cared and your ilk *actually* cared about about deficit spending you'd never vote for republicans and their tax cutting, trickle down, expand the military ways. But you don't.
3
So basically Warren is throwing election away.
3
What election? The Primary isn't for months and the General isn't next year. It sounds like people are panicking. Why, pray tell?
4
15% of the population can't make up their minds between a known compulsive liar, who goes out of his way to attack normal Americans (ie, non-politicians) in the most degrading ways, a known con man, a person who has done everything possible to harm America and Americans, who trashes our allies and cozies up to our enemies?
Or an honest politician who has ideas to actually make America a better place for everyone?
Really? They cannot make their minds about that?
14
How is it possible no one sued about this. It’s blatantly unconstitutional. Also why does Trump get to go around the country falsely trashing non-Trump voters and campaigning for GOP candidates, including himself, on our dime. That’s outrageous. I shouldn’t have to pay for this corruption.
5
I love to read about people who at this stage of the Trump Presidency have still not "made up their minds." Holy Disconnect From Reality, Batman!
I wonder what these people are waiting for. Or maybe it's just that they delight in the fact that due to geography and political landscaping, their votes can swing an election one way or the other.
I live in one of the battleground states, and I knew I would be voting for whomever the Democratic candidate was going to be the day Trump took office. I would vote for the dog catcher if s/he had a chance of removing this scoundrel from the Oval Office.
Hard to figure what these people are waiting for in making up their minds.
15
I wouldn't be hard to imagine the Electoral College actually causing a spit in this nations unity. I a case where Trump won buy lost the popular vote by 5-10 million would have millions on Americans crying taxation without real representation. Interesting times indeed.
2
"Steven Basart, 28, is getting his Ph.D in computer science and describes himself as a Democrat. Yet he would consider voting for Mr. Trump, depending on the Democratic nominee.
If it were Ms. Warren, he’d vote Republican, he said: “I think she’s going too far to the left, which would take our country in a bad direction.”"
Please excuse me while I wipe my brain off the ceiling, because this guy just blew my mind.
18
@Greg:To Steven Basart,my recommendation would be read" For Whom The Bell Tolls" by Ernest Hemingway.
@Greg
Hope his job doesn’t require him to leave his state for a blue one.
1
I need to stop reading these articles. Every time I read the words of Trump supporters justifying their vote, I can feel brain cells leaving through my ear canals.
20
Your brand of unearned moral superiority is not going to win over moderate swing voters. It's a cultural war as much as anything else so doubling down on rhetoric will only drive undecided to the other camp.
4
It's impossible to take seriously anyone who hasn't decided where they stand on Trump.
12
I'm an independent. And undecided. I have friends all over the political map, from moderates of both parties, to almost the extremes of left and right ideologies. I'll talk to anyone. And listen to everyone.
There most assuredly are echo chambers on both sides of the aisle. I've listened to both of them.
Truthfully, however, my Republican friends more often try to persuade me. What am I seeing here is spooky. I guess I’m dumb, thoughtless, ignorant, immoral, unschooled, and clueless. I might even be deplorable.
Why? Apparently because I'm not a never Trumper who believes the nation is on the brink of some apocalypse.
In my mind, I am approaching this election like any of those I have for the last four decades. I look at issues very closely, study the candidates. And ultimately select the one I think will do the best for the nation. Of course I’m undecided, as I don’t yet even know who will be on the ballot.
There are those that state they’ll vote for Trump no matter who the Democrat is, and others that say they’ll never vote for Trump. Fine.
But just FYI? Acting in a way that is utterly demeaning and condescending towards those who are withholding judgement might not be the best way to persuade them. Do not just condemn anyone that might vote for Trump without understanding why they might.
This article is talking about the very people you’ll need to persuade to win this election. And look at how you are talking about them. Perhaps think that through a bit?
15
@JRC You wrote: "But just FYI? Acting in a way that is utterly demeaning and condescending towards those who are withholding judgement might not be the best way to persuade them."
And yet you still consider Trump a legitimate candidate?
2
@JRC You are right, this is not the best way to persuade those, like you, who have not yet made up their minds.
The problem is that few of us here can imagine at this point just what kind of argument could possibly persuade you.
Specifically, what else do you need to know about Trump that might prompt you not to vote for him (again)?
Surely, you already know that Trump is a racist and has fomented racial intolerance and violence like no president before him.
Surely, you already know that Trump is a climate change denier and is happily doing everything he can to make climate change even worse than it already is.
Surely, you already know that Trump accepted help of the Russians to get elected.
Surely, you already know that Trump asked Ukraine to announce an investigation of the Bidens to improve his reelection chances.
And so on. The list of known misdeeds by Trump is a long one.
So, what else do you need? Is there ANYTHING about Trump that would at least make you not vote for him (but not necessarily vote for the Democratic candidate)?
3
What exactly are you waiting for to "withhold judgment?" Of the dozens upon dozens of deplorable quotes and incidents amongst the last 3 years, where did you decide to hit the pause button? During the last 3 months of emergent and fairly clear illegal behavior on the president's part, what aerie have you retreated to so that you're not exposed to the goings-ons of the country? I'm sincerely not condescending to you when I tell you that you need to get a grip and have a backbone
1
It’s hard to fathom anyone prepared to vote for Trump and his regime of cowards and criminals. Indeed, I despise the man so much that just yesterday visiting my father in the hospital, a very nice nurse came in to see my dad. After she walked out, I said to my siblings and they agreed: “yes, if that sweet nurse was running for president as a Democrat I would vote for her in a heartbeat over Trump.”
6
How can this still exist? Why hasn’t anyone sued over this as it’s blatantly unconstitutional. Also how is it that Trump can go all over the country falsely trashing non-Trump voters and supporters, and supporting and campaigning for GOP candidates and himself on our dime. That’s outrageous. We should not have to pay a penny for this.. or for his ridiculous golf outings. Nor should the cities he goes to to campaign. It’s theft!!
3
Undecided? After all that’s gone on? Maybe just skip the election.
7
The voters that will decide 2020 exist only as 0s and 1s in electronic voting machines with no paper trail.
Yesterday, the Times told us that Trump was ahead in the swing states and that polls one year out were as good as polls one week out.
If that’s true, then I don’t need to read another story about the 2020 presidential election. I can also scrap my plans to work for the Democratic nominee. It’s pointless, right?
Imagine how much time I’ll have to guzzle gin and huff glue and try to forget that I live in a burgeoning dictatorship. #goodtimes
5
Like it or not, most people are a lot less interested in politics or Trump’s madness than the readers of the NYT or WAPO. Around my small town there is a lot of Trump support. It isn’t intellectual, it’s quiet, below the surface, visceral. It is felt, not seen. These are Judge Judy, not Judy Woodruff, people.
A neighbor voted for Trump because he couldn’t bring himself to vote for Hilary given the noise around her. A checker at the market said after the election, “Well, at least we get to keep our guns.” Neither of these are rousing endorsements of Trump.
You may think these people are misogynistic or NRA folks. That’s not really so. The one who can’t quite get to Hilary is a hunter who detests assault rifles. He’s a rough hewn fisherman and almond farmer. He’s a really good neighbor. Salt of the earth. The checker is a nice friendly person whose attention is on her job, her horse and her chickens.
Neither of these people and many like them will vote for grand schemes of Medicare for all or other max-progressive policies. It’s a bridge too far and they won’t buy it. Tax reform, maybe, it.
So where are we? The impeachment proceedings won’t beat Trump, we know the history. Biden is mortally wounded by his son’s greed. Buttigieg might fit but how does his homosexuality affect certain voters? A big-time problem in the general.
Give me Bennet or Klobuchar. Booker doesn’t excite, he’s meh.
6
@Tim Perry
Stand by your values. There comes a time in all nations where we will have to part ways. No point in staying in an abusive relationship. If the majority overwhelmingly votes in opposition to the mob minority filled with hate and vitriol then we are at a point we dissolve that union and form a new one. The red states will get to choose come with us or go it alone.
I will not tolerate a tyrant. Good luck America.
Government is instituted for the common good; for the protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness of the people; and not for profit, honor, or private interest of any one man, family, or class of men; therefore, the people alone have an incontestable, unalienable, and indefeasible right to institute government; and to reform, alter, or totally change the same, when their protection, safety, prosperity, and happiness require it. - John Adams
Agrarian Justice - Thomas Paine
In response to the private sale of land, Paine proposed a detailed plan to tax land owners once per generation to pay for the needs of those who have no land. That can be considered a precursor of the modern idea of citizen's dividend or basic income.
Around two thirds of the fund would be spent on pension payments of £10 per year to every person over the age of 50, which Paine had taken as his average adult life expectancy.
Most of the remainder would be used to make fixed payments of £15 to every man and woman on reaching the age of 21, then the age of legal majority.
And yet they 'bought' the wholesale change in political and social dynamics that was brought on by the Reagan era embrace of radical free market capitalism....and the damage and massive inequality it's wrought since. Maybe its them who need to rethink things. Maybe you should be wagging your finger at them.
At this stage if you are a swing voter, you are a lost cause.
10
Please, please, please can we do this without Joe Biden.
White guys of his generation need to retire from politics.
3
@Allen
Really? What is your take on Trump, the few Republicans challenging him or Bernie. They're all of his generation.
If this many people have not decided yet then we have a lot to do to educate them. Rather than throw up our hands and / or abuse them, let's identify those in our community, share our mutual hopes for the nation, and gradually win them over. The alternative, Trump's reelection, is unthinkable.
7
In the last election, T r ump won because the young and those like my former students either did not vote or voted for the third party. Th e y did not like the Republican or Democratic party.
Actually they were liberal and wanted to see change in both parties. If they vote, it depends who is the democratic candidate.
2
@Beverly
Living in populist times and running an establishment candidate is what failed. The status quo is being challenged because it has failed our society.
Trump is still riding his populist wave. What exact actions do these persuadable voters approve of in his performance?
Many Democrats are still trying to deal with Trump’s power in a mind state of cognitive dissonance, unPresidentialness, and the Electoral College.
Will populism still be the motivating zeitgeist in 1 year?
3
Something has to change. The tail is wagging the dog. These few states have an influence out of all proportion to their population, whereas the tens of millions in the fifth largest economy on earth just have to put up with whatever these people decide. I’ve read that in theory trump could lose the popular vote by ten million and still win. That’s outrageous and should not be tolerated.
10
Simply stated. When Democrats vote Democrats win. A massive GOTV effort makes more sense than courting the fickle and feckless swing voters.
5
The 1% referred to assume that normal voting patterns prevail.
It is my contention that Trump activated between 2 to 9 million voters in 2016 who would otherwise have not bothered. He excited people who cared little about politics or the presidency until he hyped them up with calls to limit immigration and a host of other issues, like promising to get health insurance for all that would be better and cheaper than anything "ever seen before". Of course, he didn't even try to provide that once elected and a number of his other promises or shoutouts were dudes, too.
Don't forget this, too: college students and people of color, minorities, also have the power to decide 2020. Most college age people oppose Trump and are sickened by many aspects of his time in office. If they choose to vote, they could decide who will be president for four years.
Trump's biggest hope is to find an issue that really upsets people and causes them to want to vote again. What he is selling now is that he has been a put-upon president, not given a chance. He wants to be both victim and a portrayed as a strong president.
The Washington Post reports today that his hotel and resort properties are hurting, possibly as a direct result of his name becoming a damaged brand. Don't rule out the potential that he won't run for re-election on the claim that he has to get back to save his businesses or, perhaps,
to
make
them
great
again...
2
@Doug Terry Trump will run again no matter what - he knows that as soon as he leaves office he will be indicted and probably sent to jail.
A sliver of the electorate decided the last election.
77,000 people spread across 3 northeastern states decided the electoral college.
It’s accurate to assume the Democrats have a massive uphill climb in obtaining the electoral college vote while absolutely winning the popular vote in a landslide.
3
I’m tired of this minority sliver (the billionaires and their uneducated cult followers) of population deciding our elections and government. We need to overhaul so much about the way elections are conducted. Implement ranked voting. Eliminate electoral college or force them to vote popular vote. End gerrymandering. End citizens United. Cap spending on elections. Automatically enroll every 18-yr-old to vote. Make voting mandatory and a national holiday. Paper ballots verified by separate independent and both parties. End corporate funding of elections. End the primary process that unfairly promotes certain candidates. And stop allowing elections to drag on for months and months and years. But mostly, stop letting these tiny states (and rural and midwestern and southern people) have so much power.
8
Hillary beat Trump 48% to 46% in the popular vote, which amounted to just under 3 million more votes than Trump got.
I'm reading that Biden, Bernie, and Warren are currently polling nearly 10 percentage points ahead of Trump. That would seem to be 5 times the margin that Hillary got in 2016, or 15 million more votes than Trump. Is that really right?
Yet the current electoral college polls say that the six battleground states being polled are within the margin of error, or toss-ups.
How can both polls be right? They can't be, can they?
That would mean that 15 million more people are going to vote for a Democrat this time than Trump, but Trump could still win the electoral college?
I am having trouble believing that both of these things can be true simultaneously.
I really do not believe that 15 million more people will vote for a Democrat than for Trump, and Trump wins the electoral college.
It cannot be true.
1
@S Butler
Democrats pile up votes in NYC, Chicago, Los Angeles, etc. You can only win a state once -- whether you win it by 8 million or 700 votes.
The Electoral College is here to stay... if Democrats want to win, they need to stop selling something that appeals only to liberal voters in urban areas.
1
Stacey Abrams is the reigning queen of voter turnout—between the voters she energized and registered here in Georgia and her relentless fight against the GOP’s increasing voter suppression. So we might want to take a page from her playbook before we put our eggs in the turnout basket with a candidate who turns off so many swing voters and “persuadables.”
What Abrams understands is not only the many barriers to turnout but also, as her T-shirts say, that “politics is the art of the possible.” She knows turnout takes more than just an inspiring candidate; in many cases it will take new laws or repeals of existing voter suppression legislation, things that may be impossible in deep red states. More importantly, based on her years as a pragmatic minority party leader in our state legislature, I believe she would say it takes choosing your candidate wisely, in light of your realistic electorate, and that may mean not running one whose lead promise is rejected by two-thirds of likely voters. If you really want to win, the “art of the possible” may mean advocating something more like “Medicare for all who want it”—which may well get us to single payer, but on voters’ own terms.
So I’m donating to FairFight, Abrams’ voting rights program, but also advocating her “art of the possible” mantra. We need an inspiring candidate who can beat Donald Trump given a relatively conservative electorate and existing voter barriers. NOTHING we want is possible if we don’t beat Trump.
8
“Medicare for all who want it” isn’t a real thing and you know it.
2
What do they want ? Or are they truly unable to make a choice? Not exactly mythic or unicornish but more not knowing what to do unless someone holds their hand ; wouldn't want any of them being in charge of the fire brigade and folks , this country is on fire not only literally but really . It will be what it will be but responsibility should not rest on those shrugging shoulders if this article is correct ; and if it is we know who to hold accountable for Trump's continued demolition derby . Kool-aid anyone ?
1
I'm on the fence. I like what Trump has done, I just hate the way he acts. I'm waiting to see who comes out on top of the primaries. Biden or Mayor Pete and I'll vote for them. Bernie or Warren and I'll vote for Trump again.
6
@Rob A
You like his corruption and lawbreaking? You like his embarrassing us internationally and turning on our allies, actually causing their death? You like the destruction of democracy? It’s one thing to support conservative values but it’s another to support the death of America as you seem to support.
7
In NY it doesn’t matter what you think. And I don’t mean this rudely at all. Just that it will go blue no matter who.
3
@Justice4America
The US does not have allies. We have LOTS of DEPENDENTS esp. Europe. For over a century it has been a one way flow of lives and money from the US to Europe.
They want a reality tv host with not a lot to say. This is a reflection of Americans today. At best all they care about at this point is the economy. They either want to stay rich or are ok with remaining poor.
5
Let’s call Capt. Sullenberger (this,friends, is how a real leader acts!) and get him to run, with Booker for VP and Warren for whichever Cabinet position she wishes. Pete will be ready and still young in 8-12 years. Time to think outside the box!
1
How can anyone at this point in time still consider voting for trump? Or any republican, seriously. Are you not watching the news? And if not, why not? The country is in grave danger. What will it take for these people to pay attention? I really don’t want my future in their hands.
4
How could anybody be undecided at this point? If that is really true, we are doomed.
4
If the dems unite and support their candidate no matter who it is, as they should have done in '16, then trump can be beaten. But be aware the russians will do everything to repeat '16. And facebook as it now functions is like the barrel of a gun pointing at american democracy. Even the slightest nudge will corral the necessary votes in the direction desired.
2
It is maddening that a very small number of wishy-washy people, in a small number of states, who really don't have any idea of what constitutes a good and bad President, or understand what is good or bad for America, have the power to swing a national election for our President over the votes of a far larger majority of the people.
Our "system" is truly bad for America.
10
Elections have always been won in the middle, there was never any reason to think it would be different in 2020.
The "progressives" push of the party to the left is political suicide born of (i) ignorance about the basics of electoral politics in America. and (ii) living in a bubble in which all their friends agree with them.
They will re-elect Trump.
12
I don't think it is so hard to understand the ambivalence of a portion of the electorate. In fact, I'm surprised more people are not torn. I am a lifelong Democrat, and generally agree with the need for bringing this country back to the FDR view of things. That's what they are saying. But, to be honest, watching the first few Democratic debates was such a turn off. I also think there are a few things Trump has done was far overdue in coming. It is just that he is so distasteful in his rhetoric and attitude, it's hard to vote for him. But there are a lot of others out there who will hold their nose and do it. Why papers like the NYT do the slice and dice game during primary season is beyond me. Like they say, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.
6
Yes, a sliver may decide. That is the problem with the system. That is why we must change our election process.
2
The Electoral College gives outsized weight to rural state voters. We found out in 2000, and again in 2016, that a candidate can win the popular vote but lose the election. As more people move to coastal cities, the winner will need fewer and fewer votes. Recall Trump lost by nearly 3m. In 2020, he could potentially lose more votes and still take the E.C. If Dems want to win, they have to do so by huge margins, and flyover country will have to factor into the mix.
7
@Mary M
"As more people move to coastal cities, the winner will need fewer and fewer votes"
Actually, it's the other way around. According to a recent article, I think it was in the Atlantic, the trend is for people to leave coastal - blue! - areas because of the costs of living there and move to inland - red ! - parts of the country e.g., from LA to Phoenix or Tucson.
This demographic change understandably has Republicans quite worried. Add to that the facts that minorities in the US will soon be in the majority (as they already are in some parts of the countries) and the long-term prospects for political improvement actually don't look that bad.
The only question whether democracy in our country will survive long enough for the changing demographics to matter. Republicans, for their part, are doing everything they can to delay the moment of truth as long as they can.
1
It's interesting that there's no mention of Buttigieg, who has underscored his position on Universal healthcare "for all who want it" with a single-payer alternative for those who don't. This would likely attract under-35, white, educated, moderate (Conservative-leaning or otherwise), male swing voters. This alone checks at least four or five boxes for make-or-break undecided voters who are most bottom-line concerned about how a president's policies will affect them.
For the most "can't be bothered now" swing voters, it will be up to Pete to inspire voters who were AWOL in the last elections to actually show up and tilt the balance in his favor. And while he's at it, despite his charm, the tough part will be to convince more of those voters to actually *show up* more than Hillary ever could...and despite what the polls say.
Now...last election, I voted for a third-party candidate. Why? Because despite the fact that folks from both sides were trying to guilt me into voter for their side, saying I would give Trump or Hillary the win if I did turned me off completely. Is it my job to leverage my vote for other person's candidate to soothe their souls? No!
My job is one of *conscience* - to vote in the way our forefathers intended, that is, select the best person we believe should run the country! If we continue to vote based on fear and settling, we WILL continue to receive the president we deserve. 2016 is proof of this. So let's vote like we mean it, and with integrity.
6
@thinkaboutit. “To soothe their souls”? No, to avoid having Trump in the White House. It seems like very limited thinking to not consider the big picture. Vote for your favorite candidate in the Primary, by all means, but when it comes to the presidential election, a vote for a third-party candidate is effectively a vote for Trump. Are your arguably limited-view principles really worth another 4 years of Trump?
5
@thinkaboutit Hope you're happy with the outcome of 2016, because you contributed to it.
5
@thinkaboutit
In good conscience are you able to accept the fact that voters like you did help elect Trump, with all the damage that has followed? Are you happy watching the constitution violated on a daily basis? What does your soul tell you about the current makeup of the Supreme Court?
Ask someone who lives in a police state about integrity, there is a real risk we are headed for one.
I heard the same argument from Nader voters at one time. They wanted to vote their conscience. I asked the same question: were they happy with the Bush invasion of Iraq and all the damage that followed?
5
This is so silly, why doesn't my vote in New York mean anything?
12
Neither mine in California
Another article that makes it clear we have to get rid of the Electoral College. Our election is being decided by a small group of people who don’t have a clear idea of what they want.
30
@Sam Francisco
Try convincing three quarters of the states to sign on to a Constitutional Amendment that lets New York and California decide every presidential election for the foreseeable future.
1
I find it interesting that both the left and the right feel they are robbed of representation by the electoral college.
5
@HO I have yet to hear a right winger who dislikes it, outside of this. Most consider it a godsend.
5
@HO
Please explain how the Right feels robbed by the EC?
They’ve won their past two presidencies via the EC.
3
The problem with polls and with the Democratic Party leadership isn't deciding which way to go (moderate or progressive). It's that these senior party leaders believe they *have* a choice.
The candidates are out there. We have a decent selection. We've got the firebrand progressives represented by Sanders, the policy progressives by Warren, and the moderates represented by Biden. It's up to the electorate to voice their opinion on which way to go, not party leadership and their pollsters. That's where the 2016 election went so horribly wrong, with senior leadership essentially pre-selecting Clinton before everyone had a chance to cast a vote.
By the same token, it's more important than ever for EVERYONE go get out there and vote in the primaries. If you're on the fence, even if you're not a Democrat, you should vote for the candidate you want to see running against Trump. Don't complain that there's 'no option' except Trump if you didn't vote for an alternate option in the first place! Your voice is important!
3
@Mr. Adams You know, the more I think about it, the more that I would rather choose the young, comparatively inexperienced moderate who is pragmatic and focused on working on problems in a realistic way that finds common ground and builds upon that. Biden is in the ring, but he's playing rope-a-dope, but that won't do this time around. Give me someone who can an even temperament, decisiveness, seek advice when necessary, and answer a yes or no question and propose solutions that are open to adjustment. I can work with that.
4
I cannot comprehend the undecided voter. Do these people sequester themselves after each election or simply live in a bubble of their own making?
14
I would have no shame in saying that: If you haven't made up your mind about who should lead the country - may be fair : But it should be very clear that Trump can't lead the country and GOP can't lead the congress.
If the later part is not clear then;
1. Either you're like Trump OR
2. You're not reading AND
3. You should not vote
7
Politically engaged folks vote, and they affiliate with a party. My tribe, right or wrong. The candidate doesn't really matter.
Politically disengaged people tend not to vote in the first place. It doesn't matter one whit if a non-voter prefers one candidate or not. They don't vote, so they don't factor into the election. Articles like these that recommend focusing on persuading non-voters to prefer a particular candidate are recommending political malpractice.
A successful campaign (like Trump's, like Obama's) mobilizes additional voters by politically engaging with them. When people care about a campaign, they show up to vote. Trump got a lot of people who felt alienated by politics to show up and vote. They might be low-information xenophobes and white supremacists, but votes are votes. Obama ALSO got a lot of people who felt alienated and unrepresented to show up and vote. They may have skewed young, poor, urban, and minority, but again votes are votes.
Voters don't swing; electorates swing. Big difference.
10
I think if you truly read up on candidates, their policy positions, their qualifications, etc., you don't vote a straight ticket. You just pick whom you believe to be best for the job. After all, elections are job interviews, and voters are making personnel choices.
3
Most of these voters strike me as Republicans who've been left behind by an increasingly extreme GOP so they're only willing to vote for a Democrat out of desperation. They'll never be reliable Democratic voters and I don't think it's worth letting them drag the Democratic party to the right if it means losing a single 18-25 voter who supports single-payer. Besides, these voters will love single-payer... they just don't know it yet.
Let's ignore these voters. Either they'll vote for a Democrat or they won't but they shouldn't steer the policy of the Democratic party. They'll just have to be homeless voters until the GOP implodes and a new moderate Republican party rises in its ashes.
10
We desperately need NEW voters in 2020. Millennials could tip the balance in favor of Dems. They have so much to lose if (God forbid) Trump is 're-elected'. That must be the focus--this nonsense that 1% of the electorate could decide the 2020 election means a laser focus on registering new--and newly engaged voters who have a big stake in what happens in this country--that must be our/Dem candidates focus. Period!
6
Young people and poor people don’t vote in big numbers unless they are passionate about guns, religion, race or are exceptionally motivated by a once in a lifetime candidate.
It’s very dangerous to build a strategy based on never before achieved turnout. They didn’t turnout for The governor races in Georgia and Florida? Latinos did not show in Texas for Beto.
Until these people demonstrate repeat voter participation the Dems have to kowtow to undecideds described in this article.
1
I don't believe these people - they just want attention. If they say they're still trying to decide if literally anyone would be better than Trump, they're trolling you. They're Trump voters trying to take up your time and energy even though they have zero intention of ever voting for a Democrat, no matter who it is.
Put your energy into voters you can actually win - young voters and progressive-leaning people. Get people registered. Help them get to the polls. This is a better use of time than trying to win over these supposedly undecided voters.
10
If you watch / listen to this am's Today Show and CNN interviewiing potential voters, you will grasp Trump's strength; as the NYT article is really saying.
Trump has locked in those who voted for him in 16 and now outreaching through very sophisticated techniques to the others.
Note also that in last weeks Dem's Wisc effort to ring 50k Dem doorbells, when asked by a reporter how many of them talked about impeachment, the answer was zero,
I think it is going to be a blowout election
6
So the dilemma for Democrats. Go moderate to get the persuadable middle, the swing voters profiled here and the progressive left stays home. Go progressive left and the persuadable middle goes right or stays home. either way a 43% approval Trump is re elected
9
For the love of democracy! Grow up and make a hard decision, people!
Staying home is adolescent: ‘I don’t like my choices!’
Get over yourselves, step up and exercise your rights.
5
This column perpetuates the idea that the election will be decided by "independents" who haven't yet made up their minds. It won't.
There aren't many Americans who are undecided about whether the like Trump; certainly not enough to be a factor in the election.
The deciding factor -- the only deciding factor -- will be who decides to go to the polls. Trump won in 2016 because a very large number of non-college educated white men turned out to vote. This is a group which usually stays home, and their presence, coupled with a moderately low turn-out by African Americans, decided the election.
The same dynamics will be decisive in 2020: will Trump's base be as committed and active as it was in 2016? Will the Democratic candidate be as uninspiring and divisive as she was in 2016? Or can a new Democratic face recreate the wave of excitement that propelled Obama to the White House in 2008? These questions have nothing to do with undecided voters, and Nate Cohen should know better.
8
"A college educated suburban man who does not approve of the president's performance but strongly opposes single-payer health care."
To restate that: a narcissistic, delusional, pathological liar who is shredding the constitution, treating the presidency as a personal profit center, steering the economy by whim, and basing foreign policy on what is best for Putin; that person is preferable to someone who is trying to provide healthcare to every American.
The very real tragedy is that the Electoral College has given this shallow, thoughtless voter an undeserved importance.
16
@Robert K
If you want to provide healthcare to everyone in the US start a charity
I confess to not understanding “undecided” in major elections. I would dearly love to see analysis that shows that “undecided” is not the same as “stupid” or “willfully ignorant”.
4
@MikeG Tell me what my choices are and then I will be able to decide. At this point I only know one side of the equation. I will become undecided when I know the other side.
4
You do have a choice. You can vote for a democracy or a dictatorship.
1
Trouble City.
The Democratic Establishment doesn't want Sanders but knows that his supporters will not vote if he is denied.
The Establishment reluctantly goes with Warren to dilute the Sanders supporters resentment.
Won't work.
No Sanders. No Democrat President.
All because of DNC corruption in denying Sanders in 2016.
6
Exactly.
3
@True Observer
Hardly. We've been hearing this blackmail from the far left for several decades now. Go ahead, stay home. Just make sure you make arrangements to move your parents in with you or for you to move in with your kids when Trump decimates Social Security and Medicare in his second term as he has already said.
1
If they refuse to vote with consequences in mind, I refuse to meet them. . .
If educated, intelligent, aware people show up and vote, these people of opposite traits will fade into the noise
What a poll. 569 participants is supposed to tell us how so-called independent voters voted and or will vote. Sorry but this poll is so small its hard to take seriously. But the most laughable thing the author said “Persuadable voters are so powerful because their votes effectively count twice: A voter who flips from one party to the other not only adds a vote to one side, but also subtracts one from the other side’s tally.” That’s “voters logic” coming from a freshmen analyst. That is NOT how the system works. Your vote is counted once. There is no power in flipping. Again it all comes down to one vote. Where a voter stood yesterday doesn’t matter only where a voter stands on election day.
3
@Sendan Oh dear.
Suppose there's an election, in which one candidate gets 49 votes and the other candidate gets 51 votes. Then there's a redo, four years later. One of the people who voted for the winner decides to switch their vote. Now the previous loser gets 50 votes, and the previous winner also gets 50. One vote, but the previous winner goes down 1 and the previous loser goes up 1. That's all Cohn meant, and that's exactly what happens if someone moves from one candidate to the other. One candidate gains, and the other candidate loses.
2
On a segment on DW tv and I saw this: Their reporter went to a small farm town and talked to farmers about who they will vote for President. A middle aged farmer said that he likes Trump because he talks in a way that he understands.
For those who think that Trump's unintelligent, uneducated, clueless language is a negative think again.
I used to love to listen President Obama. Now I realize that his articulate and smart communications were a big negative for him.
7
I am so angry that it comes down to this. How can a democracy be destroyed by people who are ignorant and uninformed? How can a democracy be destroyed by an antiquated voting system that robs the majority of their voting power? Imagine the uproar that would be going on right now if the democrats had stolen the election from the republicans, not one but twice in the the 25 years. You can be certain the electoral college would already be toast.
7
Yep. Everything is geared towards the clueless among us.
4
I'm not sure how much confidence I would have in the opinions of those who can't make a decision after listening to the garbage coming out of Trump's mouth after four years and the destruction of 3 years of his administration. There is nothing in this administration that is anything of value to any Democrat. Scratch the surface of undecideds at this point and you'll find Republicans who either like the attention they get being "undecided" or want to appear reasonable. Impossible after all this time, scandal, and unlawful behavior of a supposed leader.
6
I'm of the opinion that Biden, Sanders and Warren are losers for different reasons. Mayor Pete, while young, is smart, intense, seems to be a pragmatic centrist. Is his sexual preference a no-no? Will a presently unannounced candidate appear? As things now stand I'm going with Mayor Pete. I'm an octogenarian and I think this country needs its youth. They have a lot to gain and more to lose if we have to endure another 4 yrs of DT
5
Regarding youth turnout:
I spent most of 2018 canvassing local community colleges. Young students are informed and engaged. However, there is a learning curve to political engagement. When asked, "Are you a registered voter?," the most common response is, "I'm not sure." Turns out the secret to youth turn out is education.
Here are the dates you need to worry about. Here is how you find the appropriate identification. Here is how you register. Here is how you make sure your issues are heard.
If you fail to engage these voters early in the election cycle, they are bound to be jaded when Democrats produce another nominee pandering to voters with absolutely zero youth interest. What does the average 18 year old have in common with an aging middle-class moderate from suburban Pennsylvania? The answer is virtually nothing.
You show up on campus though? Demonstrate you really do care about issues related to a time more modern than the Berlin Wall? Youth voters respond. You'll know you've done your job successfully the first time a student offers you a bong rip.
The way I square the circle is by explaining to young adults this simple truth: The game is being played with or without you. Politics will impact your life whether you like it or not. The time to get off the bench was yesterday. We passed 3 popular ballot initiatives in Utah last election mostly thanks to a younger generation.
9
Can we please not say “most electoral analysts, who have long assumed that women are likelier to be *up for grabs* than men.”
Thanks.
I appreciate this concept of the "persuadable" voters. Though it's frightening. I always have trouble understanding how someone could be so undecided after so much. This election in particular. It's as if there has been an avalanche of outrageousness spilled out before us the last three years. Yet there are people undismayed by it. The current shakedown of Ukraine using extortion, Children in cages, babies separated from their mothers, insults to gold star families, insults to Senator McCain who was a POW! Policies backing away from US accords like Iran, Syria Kurd policy, Climate Change! Dismantling the EPA! Clean water! Protections of endangered species! Sexual misconduct and hush money payments, Lies about Obama's citizenship, lies about crowd size, lies everyday, Bragging about grabbing women's ....Encouraging violence on stage, Supporting White Nationals! There is so much more. Something for everyone. Literally everyone should be shocked and find something that offends them. Yet there you go, Fox fed supporters continue to be MAGA rampant. It's hard to not be polarized when you are surrounded by zombies.
2
Love the word “might” in the title. As if elections had any influence on who is “elected.”
I am a lifelong democrat who will vote for Trump in next years election. I voted for Hillary in 2016. Why? Because the Democratic party has gone so far off the rails or to the left that I no longer recognize this party as my own. I will give three reasons: (1) its anti-law enforcement mentality such as supporting no bail for people (dangerous criminals) accused of committing crimes; (2) its anti-capitalist hysteria such as forcing Amazon out of NYC; (3) its hatred of Israel and toleration of anti-semites within its midst. A trump victory might force a restoration of the kind of democratic party that I supported all my life.
12
There's nothing in your reporting about this group that persuades me that they are "swing" voters. I see them as voters who simply don't want to announce to the world the person or party they support.
3
As a moderate Republican and Buttigieg supporter, people need to understand that you don't have to "persuade" me of anything. You just have to present a good candidate. 2016 was a dumpster fire of choice. For me, Buttigieg is exactly the type of leader I have been hoping for.
I should add that I also hoped that Obama would be that great leader who focused on solving problems by working with others. You can claim the Right preventing him from doing so, but the reality was he did not provide good leadership (although I do respect him in many ways).
5
Let admit it: these undecided voters are closet Trumpsters. Next
5
I don't know who to support. I despise Trump and think he is a clown. The Democratic Party, dominated by the fringe left, hates me for my race and gender. At least Trump doesn't denigrate me on a daily basis. The Democrats will bleed me dry with taxes all the while spouting about what a cretin I am because of my skin color. I don't mind paying taxes and don't expect a thank you- but I am tired of being held responsible for hundreds of years of inequality of which I bear no responsibility. I am also tired of having to justify any good fortune might have. No- I didn't oppress anyone and I am not responsible for history or white people.
8
No, I don’t want to meet them. They have one job: to help this country remove a lunatic from the Oval Office. There is nothing else to say.
5
It does seem fitting that sheer ignorance, in all it's non-politically correct glory, stands a good chance of re-electing the most ignorant (forget about dangerous) president in recent U.S. history, or perhaps ever.
1
After three years of this horror, if anyone is considering voting for him again they are just ignorant or racist. Write them off and get out the vote among young people and minorities.
3
if people can't decide not to vote for a liar, a cheat, a self-described sexual abuser, bigot, a failure at trade, a failure at diplomacy, someone who idolizes murderous dictators, then *they* have issues. They want something that makes these things ignorable, so they are greedy or bigots.
2
Volunteers with an organization called www.ctctogether have been engaging with undecided voters for two years. Here is an article about my experience: https://medium.com/@benthomases/when-trump-voters-open-their-doors-by-carol-smolenski-f3fb0a8c6d41
It has been fascinating!
1
@Carol Interesting article and approach - rational conversation.
2
NYT/Cohn are you editing? Quote,"They say academics and journalists look down on people like them, AND AGREE (my emphasis) that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against minorities." How about,they believe and seem to agree with each other. Sounds like a racism echo chamber. Wipipo, and I am one, are not reporting bad treatment due to racist providers when we meet our doctor, counselor,case manager, cop, cashier or school employee who isn't white.How about where we obtain greetings or service like going into a majority non-white space such as a restaurant, church, concert hall (rare, I know, for most self-segregated whites)? Tell me how on earth can the NYT not correct this divisive phrase? The real fear of mine is the bloodbath started by whites left behind when they target scapegoats i.e. the more recent immigrants, intermarried people, non-Christians and African Diasporan/descendents rather than the kleptocracy and oligarchy, for the inequities they experience.
"defiant critique of political correctness"--what a politically-correct way of describing trump's savage and dehumanizing rhetoric and behavior, from his mockery of a disabled reporter to his recent labeling of political opponents (Republicans, no less) "human scum."
1
Generations of watching mindless TV and inferior education have turned a good portion of the citizenry into mindless, ignorant idiots, incapable of critical thinking of any kind. Whoever can manipulate their emotions with more success gets their vote. The Republicans are better at this.
6
Hey guys,
Want more taxes? vote Democrat.
4
After the dismal failure of polling to predict the 2016 Presidentail election, why on earth should anyone give any credence to polls now? Every day leading up to the 2016 election, I saw the New York Times predict Hillary Clinton as the winner by 80%+!!!!! Talk about fake news!
6
It is one thing to not know which candidate one will vote for in a primary. To not know which party one will vote for 2/4 years before the next election makes one an uninformed / misinformed idiot.
1
Why is the NY Times so obsessed with this demographic?
2
After three years of a depraved narcissist and third rate mobster from Queens who is clearly indebted to Vladimir Putin, that these people are still undecided is troubling in the extreme.
4
Time for Mr. Biden to sell a public option and changes to make college more affordable and reversing the tax cuts as exciting as they can be. This would be a fundamental improvement
in America and one most people seem to be comfortable with. At its core America is a slow but steady change country. Too much change, makes us nervous. The goal is to beat Trump, time for a moderate to win this time and give people 4 years to get comfortable with the idea of Medicare for All.
3
There are/have been something like 25 people running for the Democratic nomination. No matter who gets it, the 24 other people WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THAT PERSON'S ADMINISTRATION. Buttigieg, Gabbard, Sanders, Warren, Castro, Klobuchar, potato potato, tomato tomato: just vote D, for the love of all that is good, just get the Republican hands of the wheels of the bus. Bush drove it into a ditch. Trump is going to drive off a cliff. Trump was going to "drain the swamp," but his administration is packed with R veterans of R administrations past. You are either going to have a team of 3,000 Democratic government officials. Or you're going to have a team of 3,000 Republican government officials. Looking at administrations since Nixon, who do you think has the best chance of doing the least damage?
5
this guy's a joke. two thirds of the bureaucrats in Washington were under Democrats they're still there they infiltrate Trump's administration terribly even the White House
3
@bigC Your set-up has become tiresome. There are 4,000 people in the Executive Branch. Many of them are comparable to air traffic controllers, flight mechanics, baggage handlers: their politics are irrelevant. The people in charge of them are political appointees, and guess what BigC? Most of them are either incompetent (like Rick Perry), swamp creatures (like the folks at the EPA), or have been fired for trying to steer the bus away from the cliff to where it is currently heading. The Trump administration, like the Bush administration (remember Brownie?) is filled with a mix of cronies and mercenaries. Drain the swamp indeed.
2
None of this hair-splitting analysis matters.
Based on the evidence of a doctored and violated 2016 presidential election, there is no reason to believe that this won't be the 'best' election money can buy. In fact the situation is even more perilous with the Trump people firmly entrenched in various aspects of the federal government. America is in serious trouble.
2
The voting characteristics are mine, as a moderate Republican who is now an enthusiastic supporter of Buttigieg. I'm politically engaged and I rarely do not vote. In 2016, people like me really struggled. I will not vote for a person like Trump, but Clinton was a terrible candidate. I voted that day but I simply left the one line for president blank. I don't vote against someone just because the other option is worse. Democrats had a low bar in 2016 and they failed to reach it. That bar is even lower after seeing Trump in action for three years, but I'm seriously concerned that Democrats will fail to reach that bar as well. Where is the political leadership?!?!
I will have no problem voting for some combination of Biden/Klobuchar/Buttigieg but will really struggle with a ticket that includes Warren/Sanders. The data in this article supports my view.
I don't live in a swing state and won't affect the outcome of the election. The REAL voters identified in this article are NOT me, but the PORTION of the people like me in the handful of swing states. That's a much smaller number.
Oh... support Buttigieg! It's a no-brainer.
10
I probably fall in this group.
I would vote for Mayor Pete, Amy K. and Biden over Trump.
I would vote for Trump over Warren or Bernie.
5
@Sue Warren and Bernie would likely be members of a Buttigieg Administration, just like Pete would find some role to play in a Warren Administration. This is not a Marvel movie where the hero saves the day. Vote for the party that you think is competent. Do you see competence in the Trump Administration? If not, vote for D and forget about the personality at the front of the show.
3
Isn’t it clear from articles like this that we need a moderate Democrat if we are going to beat Trump? Unless someone like Klobuchar can gain traction we’re stuck with Biden. With all his deficiencies he will be a good President and will fill the government with quality people.
5
You don’t vote “No Trump” in the election. You vote “Yes somebody”. And the problem with the current situation is that the options that Democrats present are not good. There is nobody in the current array of Democratic presidential hopefuls who I can wholeheartedly support on their policy positions, with the possible exception of Mayor Pete. Biden is tainted by a scandal but he would still be an improvement over Trump. However, neither of them is likely to be the nominee. And if the nominee is a socialist - Sanders or Warren - I will vote for Trump, despite my total revulsion from his personality and his foreign policy. We can survive four more years of Trump. No country has ever survived socialism (not social democracy, which is represented by nobody in this race). It is very unfortunate that the US is now reduced to a choice between two evils but that’s just the way it is.
you don't know what socialism vs social democracy is , obviously. Socialism envisions complete ownership of the means of production by 'the people'represented by central government control. SD allows private enterprise...capitalism with regulations if you will, with more government safety nets. We already have elements of social democracy in the USA. Warren and Bernie are both Euro-style social democrats.
2
Stop telling us about things you cannot know. Even the folks who claim they have decided do not know they have until it comes time to vote. Anything can happen between now and then. This sort of rabble rousing is not helpful.
All Press would do a lot for the whole world if they would focus on the poor use of language by our leaders. How about focusing on these "leaders" who talk like they are on Jerry Springer but have degrees from 4 year colleges some of them ivy league? What does that say about them and their honesty?
The rise of European fascism in the early 1900s was built upon illiteracy. Newspapers tended to be fact-checked, and more truthful than not; but in Portugal, for instance, over 60% of the populace could not read. Radio (the then-new technology) provided a new information channel, but was prone to promote falsehoods, because it wasn't fact-checked. And, once Salazar came to power in 1928, Portugal remained in Fascism's iron grip until 1974. In the US, the new tech is social media. It is not fact-checked (as confirmed by Zuckerberg's recent Congressional testimony). As with radio speeches in Europe in the 1920s, so to with social media in the US in the 2000s: people don't listen with a skeptical ear; they hear what they want to hear, and cannot process truth, only what echoes within their personal belief systems.
Americans are not strictly illiterate, but the majority are functionally illiterate. They cannot parse scientific facts. They have no sense for the facts of history -- of the reasons for the Constitution. They cannot apply the rules of logic and reason and law, in order to discern for themselves, independent of their belief systems, where the truth lies.
And too many remain anxious and fearful. Sorkin's screenplay treatment of the fictional Bob Rumson remains in full and amplified force. "Trump is interested in two things, and two things only: making you afraid of it, and telling you who's to blame for it. That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you win elections."
2
The only polls that really matter are the ones for Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Florida (29), and North Carolina (15). Trump got 304 electoral votes last time, plus 2 "faithless electors" who cast their votes for someone else. Trump needs to lose 38 of those 306 electoral votes -- and those 38 will have to come from those 5 states. No other states will really be in play (not Texas, not Georgia, not Arizona, etc.).
You do the math. And then let's support the ticket that can pick up enough of those 90 electoral votes that are actually in play.
2
@John Mercer
Sad but almost true because Florida and SC will not be in play either. Given the mood of the electorate, the results are pretty much fixed since the Dems have to pick up PA, MI and WI. Not much chance of that since it narrows the territory for the Republican big money to target.
1
I can only hope that these people are well informed, critical thinkers, who have our whole country's best interest at heart. I can only hope that they don't harbor hatred for people who have done nothing against them, but high suspicion of those who have hurt them, in so many ways (that would be Republicans and tRump, in most cases.) A continuation of the current situation, for another 4 years, will probably doom our democracy. If you are NOT rich, "are you better off than you were four years ago?" My guess is NOT.
1
The 2020 election is beyond politics; it's a vote for democracy and our constitution or a vote for a corrupt oligarchy. And there are local and state elections today in most states and I hope everyone gets out and votes.
2
I am incredibly disappointed in Elizabeth Warren. In more normal times, I would consider her, but these times are not normal and I will not take the chance of supporting candidate that does not have an absolutely maximal chance to defeat Trump. I fear that Elizabeth Warren is blinded by her "I will fight for you" shtick. If Warren really wants to fight for us she would moderate her poison pill position on healthcare and get elected. I am unwilling to take the risk on a candidate who has tacked so far to the left in these difficult times. An additional problem for me is, these three top tier candidates have less than optimal electability. Hopefully one of the other candidates can gain some traction with a reasonable platform, sharp intellect and ability to communicate that carry them to the nomination.
1
Missing always in these calculations are the Democratic votes that would be lost in pandering to the few.
As difficult as it may be, thanks to the many strategic Republican roadblocks put in front of potential Democratic voters, time in these swing states would be better spent in intensive voter drives and other get-out-the-vote strategies during the election, than wasting time chasing unicorns.
As for the base and so called “swing voters”? The best we can hope for is that by throwing as much sunshine as possible on the crimes and malfeasance of Trump and the Republicans enabling them, many of these voters will become discouraged and stay home.
Persuading Republican voters to change their stripes is a huge waste of valuable time and resources.
1
It says a great deal about this country, when a small poll to which no error estimates are attached, taken one year before an election, a year where much that is uncertain and improbable can become certain and likely, that such a pole can be given credence and excite opinion. These polls bare a familial resemblance to stock market predictions that generally cost investors lots of $ but which still cause them to return for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc. helpings.
Acknowledgement: These remarks were inspired by the great American pundit whose punditry has stood the test of time: P.T.Barnum
1
"The Trump administration is expected to roll back an Obama-era regulation meant to limit the leaching of heavy metals like arsenic, lead and mercury into water supplies from the ash of coal-fired power plants."
Does anything else need to be said?
2
If every eligible voter votes in every election, there will never be a Republican in the White House. How can anyone be undecided after three years of corruptions, mismanagement, one trillion debt in less than a year and making a ocean out of the swamp rather than draining it?
2
It's baffling to me that voters evidently decide whom to vote for based on one issue they agree with the incumbent candidate on and not his record and performance on the whole. How he's affected the country, and people not them. I'm trying to think of an analogy that would highlight the absurdity of the thinking.
Can someone please explain how voters in six States decide what the entire Nation has to go through for another four years?
To be undecided about deciding- to vote for Donald Trump is a matter I simply cannot fathom. What else is there to know?
1
When the fate of American democracy lay in the hands of people of who are this incredulous, we might as well flip a coin to determine the Presidency.
1
Just once I want someone to measure the demographic of people who are set to vote for WHOEVER runs against Trump. Seriously measure THIS group. Bet you'll find it doesn't really matter who the Democrats pick. A legion will show up to vote for "not Trump". All this is just theater to sell newspapers.
2
If Trump wins without the help of Russia, Gerrymandering, voter suppression or the Electoral College than the United States deserves what they get.
3
This is amazing. I thought this was going to be an article about democratic primary candidates. I don't see how anyone could be thinking about ANY of the democrats and still consider voting for Trump.
I could see someone vote 3rd party/not vote at all if their democrat of choice is not selected.
What this poll shows is that most people don't pay attention. How could a young Hispanic man say that Mr. Trump says things that are potentially racist. Potentially racist? Or that he cares about policies. Mr. Trump's major policy victory, the GOP tax cut, was aimed at people much higher up the economic ladder than a Ph.D student. Trump's policies of tariffs, trade wars, trying to kill the ACA, building a border wall (which this Hispanic man should realize appeals to white fears of a rising Hispanic population), and no infrastructure bill do nothing for the vast majority of Americans.
Winston Churchill was right: "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."
3
Drop the Electoral College and go with one person, one vote in presidential elections.
Small voter groups, such as "persuadables" and low-population red-state Republicans, have way too much voting power (multiples of voters in populous blue states), and are badly distorting our political system.
Endlessly parsing the whims of uneducated persuadables and red-staters shouldn't have to happen.
2
Stacey Abrams is the reigning queen of voter turnout—between the numbers of voters she energized and got registered here in Georgia and her relentless fight against the GOP’s ever-increasing voter suppression. So we might do well to take a page from her playbook before we put all our eggs in the turnout basket with a candidate who turns off so many swing voters and “persuadables.”
What Stacey Abrams understands so well is not only the many barriers to voter turnout but also that “politics is the art of the possible.” She knows it takes not only an inspiring candidate to turn out voters but also scores of workers dedicated to registering them, transporting and cajoling them to the polls, and she also knows that many voting barriers cannot be removed without legislation that is unlikely to be passed before the next election—if at all. More importantly, based on her many years as a pragmatic minority leader in our state legislature, practicing the “art of the possible,” I believe she would say that running a candidate whose leading promise is rejected by two-thirds of the electorate is a losing proposition, that the “art of the possible” is more like “Medicare for all who want it”—which will likely get us there, but on voters’ own terms.
So join the turnout battle at FairFight, Abrams’ campaign against voter suppression, and get an Abrams “art of the possible” T-shirt while you’re at it. NOTHING we want is possible if we don’t beat Donald Trump.
1
A litmus test of the failure of public education in this country. That US citizens do not have the critical thinking to sort out this deranged and toxic political swampland is beyond me. I have not heard any candidates mention education since what seems like the 90s.
2
In 2016, less than 60% of the eligible voters actually turned out to vote for POTUS.
Rather than seek the mythical, unicorn voters in the States that the Dems need to carry the Electoral College, the Dems might better try to get that 40% who didn't vote off their couches. Surely, some of them might vote for a Democrat.
Obama's 2008 election is the only recent one that had more than 60% (61.6%) of the eligible voters actually vote. Sad.
1
When you look at the percentages that responded “some chance” and “not certain,” and then consider low voter turn-out, that means that some of these people won’t lift a finger to exercise the right to vote that better Americans have fought, marched, and died for. It’s pretty sad when you realize that the most lazy, irresponsible, inattentive, and indecisive people may decide the fate of our country. On the other hand, if these really are the characteristics of this uncertain percent of the voting population, then maybe it is best for everyone if they just stay home.
I’m getting tired of hearing about this mythical couch potato in Wisconsin, who will award the winner with the one state’s electoral votes needed to get over the finish line. Quit looking for him, and get the Parkland vote out.
2
Stacey Abrams is the reigning queen of voter turnout—between the numbers of voters she energized and got registered here in Georgia and her relentless fight against the GOP’s ever-increasing voter suppression. So we might do well to take a page from her playbook before we put all our eggs in the turnout basket with a candidate who turns off so many swing voters and “persuadables.”
What Stacey Abrams understands so well is not only the many barriers to voter turnout but also that “politics is the art of the possible.” She knows it takes not only an inspiring candidate to turn out voters but also scores of workers dedicated to registering them, transporting and cajoling them to the polls, and she also knows that many voting barriers cannot be removed without legislation that is unlikely to be passed before the next election—if al all. More importantly, based on her many years as a pragmatic minority leader in our state legislature, practicing the “art of the possible,” I believe she would say that running a candidate whose leading promise is rejected by two-thirds of the electorate is a losing proposition, that the “art of the possible” is more like “Medicare for all who want it”—which will likely get us there, but on voters’ own terms.
So join the turnout battle by donating to FairFight, Abrams’ campaign against voter suppression, and get yourself an Abrams “art of the possible” T-shirt while you’re at it. NOTHING we want is possible if we don’t beat Donald Trump.
1
Have to wonder how many of these people are lying. At a number of Democratic town halls over the years, some questioners who were purportedly "undecided" were actually Republican provocateurs aiming antagonistic "questions" and were subsequently outed by someone who knew them.
let me help you to make up your mind. remove mr. trump first and then other ideological fight. mr. trump is a disgrace to each of us including our nation. he is a con-artist and manipulate every one and every law. our prestige and trust in the world's eye is lost. don't you think we need to restore that first. it is like we may have in side family disagreement - why should the world know about it? about economy, yes it is doing good now but at the cost of GOP principle of high debt and high tariff. stock market and jobs market are ok but high pay and manufacturing jobs are not coming back.
These undecided need to answer only simple one question...Do you believe Trump is above the law?
Yes votes for Trump
No does not vote for Trump
Interesting results, but I have concerns about the small sample size (slightly under 600). Can the NYT speak to how size of this sample compares to standard ?
Undecideds and Independents listen up.
Trumps Base is dug in. Many hard core, progressive Democrats like myself are similarly dug in. You could put a stuffed Charlie McCarthy puppet in as the nominee for either Party and most voters would go with the Party. This is especially true of Republicans.
Do you like Elizabeth Warren? No? She’s too liberal? She’s a closet Republican? She’s a hysterical female?
Well, it doesn’t matter because this election is about America’s future. It’s not the candidate.
Did is say that? It’s not about Trump?
Yes. But this election IS about honesty in government. It’s about public service. It’s about transparency.
It could be about Medicare for All, but who really thinks this will happen? No, Big Pharma, the big private insurers and hospitals are just to powerful. So let’s forget about affordable insurance for now. Your kids surely won’t have affordable insurance, but you made it. They will too.
What about taxes? Sure Amazon and most of the big corporations don’t pay taxes. Who cares? They’ve already shipped your job to China irrevocably so why bother? That’s water under the bridge. Besides, the corporations will always defer these costs to you. That’s free enterprise. Survival of the fittest.
Climate change? The world’s climate is probably changing but it could be a hoax. It sure won’t get fixed in my lifetime so who cares?
Infrastructure. Ha! We’ll fix things as they happen.
So is there anything else you want the election to be about?
This election, like many others, will be a disaster for three reasons:
1. The long-standing anti-intellectual feelings held by many Americans. So there goes Warren's chance of success. They like Bernie because he seems like a regular guy even if he's a "socialist." They prefer Uncle Joe who, like Trump, cannot utter an articulate sentence;
2. The older white and uneducated people who feel they have lost their status to the "other" mostly immigrants and other minorities (even though this is not the case). They ignore the fact that Trump is bad news for them in many ways because they believe he speaks for them;
3. The young (too lazy to vote - much more fun to complain on-line) and those Black people who do not vote unless motivated by someone who looks like them, e.g., Obama, even though Trump has been hurting Blacks and Latinos in every way he can.
God help us. We are hurtling over the cliff.
2
Far from being highly principled, these undecideds are actually so ethically squishy that they can readily equate the desire for a single-payer health system with the impeachable offenses of a morally bankrupt conman.
These are self-important people who make a fetish out of their own unexamined standards and refuse to put time and energy into discerning which of their values are actually most worthy. This is nothing more than moral laziness masquerading as judiciousness.
1
To be undecided after almost 4 years of Trump's behavior just solidifies my opinion that people who vote for Trump are seriously lacking in critical thinking.
3
The travesty of the Electoral College, which assigns more than one vote to one person, is the real decider here- swing state, battlegrounds, all nonsense! One vote-one person, and then majority rule. We now have an aristocracy decided by the minority. Just like when we were English colonies!
1
@Robert M. Koretsky
So, because California has a much larger population does that mean those who live in Middle America don't count? This is where the rubber meets the road for me. A small number of people live in say Kansas rather than in New York where the population is much larger and more diverse. If somehow the electoral college were revoked (unlikely as 3/4 of the states would have to agree) and those states are some of the ones that are considered "Swing States."
Most Presidents won the electoral college. Trump is an exception not the rule. It is incumbent upon the candidates to sell themselves to the American People not just to those in California, New York and other big states on the east and west coast.
That is the way our founders decided. I am okay with that. Dems: Put up good candidates and you will win. Nominate Elizabeth Warren and you are rolling the dice.
4
I work on environmental pollution. It is better to abstain than to vote for Trump, he is literally destroying air, water and land with his policies, the most recent being to lower regulations of coal mining byproduct which contain mercury. And people who make the liners of waste pits and the people who do the inspections and the people who handle and dispose of hazardous waste - these are good jobs he is taking away people!!! If you even slightly care about the future, don’t vote on personality and popular culture (honestly people, how political correct someone speaks or does not speak determines your vote???????). It means you have fallen for the political tactic of distracting citizens from the quiet really really awful policies that are actually getting passed behind the scenes, that the media only slightly covers, like deregulating pollution regulations to benefit corporations and to make the taxpayer pay for all the health and pollution that is the byproduct. In my mind, corporations should understand that their damage is the cost of business and if they can’t make a profit without externalizing that cost on taxpayers, than we are subsidizing them and that’s not a free market. So wake up people and figure it out.
Like 90% of everyone here, I am firm in my own choice, and think the reasons are so abundantly clear that it baffles me that EVERYONE doesn't see them.
I am surprised at the Comments attacking people who are (in their own minds) legitimately undecided as dumb, evil, deficient in moral character. They may not floss enough either.
Personally, if I were truly undecided in this climate, I'm not sure I would ever admit it. Because - absolutely EVERYONE is going to spend the next year trying to win you over, often in insulting terms.
It would be instructive to be able to see their Google and FB ad feeds, wouldn't it?
1
I cannot under any circumstances vote for Trump, Warren, or Sanders. They are all equally odious for different reasons.
2
Takeaway: The electoral college must be removed. Citizens United must be overturned. Public education is woefully underfunded and under appreciated!
1
The biggest elephant in the room that neither party is talking about is the question of race, more specifically the state of black America. Trump, for all the accusations of racism against him, since Charlottesville has directed almost all of his racial bile against Hispanics, not against blacks. He has persistently been trying to make political overtures towards black Americans, in his clumsy, boorish and incompetent way. He signed, with significant fanfare, the First Step Act on federal sentencing reform. The Democrats, early on in the debates, talked about radical leftist ideas like slavery reparations, which remain widely unpopular with the broader electorate. After that the issue of race kind of disappeared from the discussion, displaced by health care and climate change. Neither party has been willing to talk about trying to actually reduce the violent crime gripping much of the black community.
Trump could upend the dynamics of the entire contest if he we to aggressively go after the affirmative action programs (particularly in federal hiring and subcontracting), and to offer a “tough on crime” program of aggressively increasing federal prosecution of violent crime. His base is certainly ready for it, and I suspect that a significant portion of non-black voters (including Asians and Hispanics) could be swayed too. The Democrats could also change the conversation considerably if they elevate the voter suppression issue, and offer new ideas on reducing violence.
1
I am also a swing voter. I know Trump talks trash but he delivers on the goods. Even though the country is better off now then while under Obama's control his brash personality is sometimes scary. I think Tulsi would be OK but Hillary says she is a Putin puppet so she is out and Biden seems to be suffering from Old Timers disease. I had my vote firmly locked onto Beto until he said he was going to take my AR-15. I looked to Kamala but her stance on women's rights completely offends me and my religious beliefs. Buttigieg seems nice but he is passive and has no experience or political credentials. Since the economy is on fire I should do what is right by voting for our current president but I will wait. If Hillary can avoid prosecution into her corruption I may have found an alternate candidate.
2
I have a group of friend that meet this unicorn voter. Basically, all are fiscal conservative social liberals. As one said I love helping people, but I can do it better and cheaper than a politician. None will vote for a Warren or Bernie they would jump to DT, but a Joe or Mayor and they are all in. None vote for a party only a candidate.
As I see it, 42.5% are either left or right and will never venture out of those parties, usually for two to four main issues. The National elections swing on the tides of independent unicorns.
1
According to Five-Thirty-Eight, there are four more swing states than this poll doesn't cover: Ohio, (an important battleground state), Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia. So questions remain about the accuracy and completeness of this poll.
Hey, why not just cut to the chase and limit voting in 2020 to the all-important "battleground" states? The message I'm getting is that the rest of us are superfluous to the process, anyway, and especially those living in low population states like I did in 2016 -- Montana with its four measly Electoral College votes. This is de factor disenfranchisement at its finest and just one of many good reasons why the anachronistic Electoral College needs to be abolished.
6
I read through this article a couple looking for a more complete demographic description of the so called persuadables, but it doesn’t seem to be there. If this group is similar to or older than average for the area, then it is likely to swing more conservative. And very importantly, that Trump hasn’t sent off troops to a new war somewhere and has taken steps to pull back from forever wars will be seen as a strong plus among those voters that remember the futile bipartisan engagements of Vietnam, gulf wars 1 & 2. Among these potential voters “No new war” might compensates for his bad behavior and poor performance in other areas.
I fervently hope that Elizabeth Warren comprehends the situation as described here. She may have a plan for Single Payer Health; it might even be a workable plan, but she has to reckon with the fact that some people are just dug in and will not change their minds even in the face of logic. They need to be brought along gradually. Breaks my heart to say it, but she has to moderate her position and allow for an evolution, not a revolution. She has to a leader, a person who will forge consensus. Doesn't matter whether she is "correct" or not -- she has to reckon with the American populace.
10
This reminds me of some late undecideds in 2016 that I saw interviewed on CNN. It wasn't that they needed more information or were open to persuasion. They were people who just didn't like either candidate and did not want to vote for either of them.
The main takeaway I see here for Democrats is to listen to what Nancy Pelosi told Bloomberg News last week, that the road to the WH is through the moderate suburbs. I know liberal readers here (I am one of them, actually) don't want to hear this, but there is no better vote counter than she, and she was right in 2018. Not everybody in this country agrees with us no matter how right we may think we are.
8
@NYer This is why I have some hope for the younger people who will be turning 18 soon, because many of them do live in these outlying suburbs of larger cities, like Milwaukee and Chicago. In the 4 years since the last presidential election, the internet has become more empowering for them, and they have been influenced by scores of people like them making their individuality known. They will break off from their parents, as it is also known that they do not like the GOP at all. As long as their individuality does not dictate to them that they should not bargain if their candidate does not get the nomination, we should see a whole new bumper crop of young Democrats who shall be instrumental in electing our next president..
This is my hope. Fake news is still out there, but the youth of this country are becoming savvier and savvier at navigating themselves through all the muck.
The Sienna poll asserts that a president, who is 11 points down on RCP approval ratings and 7 points down even to Warren in RCP consolidated head to head polling and who would therefore would stand to lose the popular vote to her by 9 million, at a 2016 level turnout, could still beat her because the narrow sliver of voters claims are the deciders can't be persuaded to vote for a woman. Shouldn't the turn out assumptions and methodology they use to reach a result that seems so improbable be treated with some degree of skepticism?
3
I think you overestimate the power of undecideds. Trump understands that he has the best chance by exciting his base, not trying to convince undecideds. Dems should do the same, because the progressive policies proposed by Warren and Sanders have the best chance of getting the broad Democratic base to the polls. Dems are not going to win by appealing to wishy washy middle of the road voters. Give us bold choices, that would shape a better America, not the tired neo liberal policies of Clinton and Biden. And then let the undecidids make a commitment.
7
For anyone who cares about defeating Trump, this article screams Buttigieg (or possibly Klobuchar, though Mayor Pete has a substantial lead on her at this point.)
In a study based on state demographics and recent polling, Buttigieg was found to be the likeliest of all Democrats (even more so than Joe Biden) to beat Trump in the midwestern battleground states:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/23/whos-most-electable-democrat-it-might-be-warren-or-buttigieg-not-biden
7
@everydayispoetry
This article is biased against outsiders. Andrew Yang is more appealing to independent voters than both Warren and Buttigieg.
1
What about Amy Klobuchar? She would seem to be a natural fit for the persuadable voters. It sad that she doesn't, at least yet, show up in the top tier democrats being discussed in such an article.
8
Poor America,
I feel so sorry for you,
you used to be great
and promising...
You gave us hope...
Now, after
So many scandals,
so much corruption,
You, Americans
may still be undecided?
Poor America,
you used to be so great.
8
@ehh
And yet, people continue to literally die trying to get into the United States.
3
“There are plenty of things not to like about Trump, because he says things that are not nice and potentially racist,” said Mr. Basart, who is Latino. “I care somewhat about those things, but I mostly just care about policies, because at the end of the day, that’s what affects people.”
Trump, in office, has contributed to minorities, including Latinos, being targeted by right wing extremists. You know what else affects people? Right wing extremists, and Trump has enacted a sum total of zero policies to protect anyone from the unhinged.
7
So, it seems that the majority of American voters are clueless.
12
I can't believe I'm sahying this, but...
I'm a professional,but a union member. Gave up better salary for free medical supplement to Medicare. Don't now want to pay. Next, Bernie S is anathema. His use of Linda Sarsour, an anti-Semite, among other distasteful reasons, make me say I won't vote for him, or Warren, even against trump, whom I despise. I. Just. Can't.
3
@Me I can’t believe you are sahying it either, because it makes zero rational sense. You can find something to pick apart or dislike about any candidate. But if you are willing to vote for a known liar, criminal, rapist and autocrat due to someone even a Jewish political junkie like me has never heard of, then you are truly lost.
1
Warren will be President in 2020. Just watch.
4
Ostrich. Electoral college.
2
I think these are the same people who were interviewed on the Tonight Show as having no idea where Colorado was on the map. Or maybe they were on TMZ, I forget. . . .
5
Donald Trump has bombarded the American public with his noxious and destructive behavior for over 3 years. He is manifestly incapable. He is a liar and cheat. His life is marked by meanness and tawdry affairs. And yet we learn from Mr. Cohn that this same Mr. Trump has a better than 50/50 chance to win a second term.
How can a man who ruins everything he touches remains popular with so many of my fellow countrymen?
There is unspoken suspicion and anger that Donald Trump exploits. And while anger feels good in the moment it only leads to more anger and eventual decay. Let us hope that whomever is the Democratic nominee will offer a vision for our country that will help us all restore or sense of place and value in ourselves.
6
He hasn't come close to ruining everything he touches. The economy is doing better than it has in decades and people's 401ks are at an all-time high.
4
Since 2016 I hardly believe in any poll’s numbers –
What I do believe is that, whoever wins, riots and casualties will happen. This is how I see the polarization of your country.
Trump has destroyed your way of life, your democratic institutions, and the peaceful transition of power.
He uncovered the blanket that unites 35% of your population: racism. That’s the epoxy glue that unites that electorate. The reason for “no matter what, they will vote for Trump”. He has given the Mafia Boss nod of been a racist. They will not want to lose that “privilege”.
8
Do you know how the Democrats win an Electoral College that gives disproportional electoral power to red states? GET OUT AND VOTE. There is no question about the lesser of two evils, folks. We have Trump and anyone else would have to be considered a saint in comparison. Get out and vote. Blue no matter who!!!! You stayed home because you couldn't vote for Clinton and you lost the Supreme Court and the federal judiciary for a generation. Now is the time to make up for that destructive passivity. BLUE NO MATTER WHO.
6
@Mark
You are right, of course. As an older voter, I just find the policies of Warren and Bernie an anathema and will be very unhappy to vote for either. I hope I don’t have to but TRump is such a threat I have no choice if one of them is the nominee.
With Buttigieg surging you have to start putting them in these lineups.
4
In age of Trump, if you claim to be a swing voter, you are already "damaged".
9
We should go back to the smoke filled back rooms where the candidates were selected by professional politicians who would never accept a Trump. Can the ridiculous primaries, saving us millions of dollars and stupid choices for presidential nominating conventions as well as negating to a large degree the corruption of big money donors in our political system.
4
@Notate Redmond
Not one of these candidates may get the necessary votes to win the nomination so
the Dems may face a brokered convention. You may get your wish and it won’t be pleasant, especially if the Bernie Bro’s pull what they did in 2016.
2
Question: which Bernie Bro’s, actual Bernie voters or the Putin “ Bernie Bro’s” masquerading as Americans and casting poison on HRC? I caucused with Sanders voters in 2016 and they were to a person committed but polite.
Give me a break. There are no undecided voters. There are only survey respondents who know their upcoming Trump vote is morally wrong, so they feign undecidedness.
28
I think we're getting a real time lesson in how empires fall. And it seems to come down to apathy and stupidity. As the great George Carlin said:
"Think about how stupid the average person is. Then realize half of them are stupider than that."
10
Among my older demographic of friends, we feel Biden and Sanders are too old. Warren too far to the left to win. What happens when you poll for Amy and Pete? Or Pete and Amy? Mid western moderates that are more likely to cooperate and get things done?
8
@Anne Jackson it is a fallacy to believe that the Republican Party will suddenly decide to up and cooperate with a Midwest moderate. They will vilify, obstruct and resist anyone with a D after their name. Stop looking for Mr. Goodbar and throw this monster out of office. Worry about the rest later.
2
The data cited in the article confirm, for me at least, that the white electorate is as deplorable a group as the exit polls in 2016 showed them to be. The only hope for Democrats (and the planet) is a massive turnout of voters who are black, brown, or young. Obama proved that such a turnout is possible, but without a figure as charismatic as Obama, it requires an all-out, well organized, and extremely well funded effort. Stacey Abrams is working on that. Voto Latino is working on that, and several smaller, less well known organizations, too. But the project requires a much bigger effort than they can mount on their own.
6
@Rex Page Many Bernie supports say if he doesn't win the nomination they won't vote and many of his supporters are young. What should we say to them?
judy
1
@Michael Massi Bernie cultists did not vote in 2016 against Trump in a meaningful way. That they talk about repeating in 2020 the disastrous effects of that decision, demonstrates that they care more about their tribe than their country, the 99%, and the planet. If enough Democrats won’t vote for a Democrat who wasn’t their choice, we only ever have Republican rule.
1
Another "study" to determine how people will vote. If the energy and resources that this entails were expended in educating the electorate about the issues, then we might still have a facsimile of democracy left in the electoral process.
8
It is probable Trump might not garner enough popular votes but there is a high probability he might still win with Electoral votes.
5
The fact is that small town voters often vote, based on who is in their church, etc. for city council, or Mayor. If a Lutheran is running, then usually, because they have a lot of people in their church who vote, a Lutheran wins. People often aren't interested in who is the most intelligent, who has the most common sense, or the best interest in fiscal discipline, as most just raise taxes, indiscriminately, as union employees make the taxpayers are pick up the cost of their health insurance, so both the utility bills, and property taxes in rural areas have become cost prohibitive, as the demands of the new sewer, and water treatment plants, etc., the costs are born by fewer. and fewer people. The state of Minnesota has high rates of city taxes, county taxes, and state taxes. All of this is tied both directly, and indirectly to how they feel about government in general, as most rural areas have almost always, in Minnesota, voted conservative, and Republican since 1860. The state as a whole has voted Democrat in Presidential elections except voting for Nixon. Most of the people live in Minneapolis, St. Paul, St. Cloud, Duluth, Winona, and Moorhead, which means, that so far, the state has gone Democrat, even for Hillary Clinton by a small margin. DT is making an effort to swing the state, but with the farmers getting the largest subsidies because of the tariffs, but still facing fiscal issues, it is doubtful, that they would all vote for DT next year like they did in 2016.
5
Trump primaried horribly in Minnesota, the state in which I grew up, and it is disheartening to see the spread of his toxicity when I return home. There is an older thread of MN that is profoundly democratic, scandinavian, and very much supportive of a strong social net. Maybe some of these people need reminders of what their grandparents taught them?
I don't like Trump, approaching something that might characterized as "despise," but I don't see myself voting for the Democrats.
Not sure what I'll do. Maybe vote third party. I'm from Texas, my vote doesn't matter anyway.
2
@Dave Dave - That is where I was in 2016, as a moderate Republican. Do you not see a moderate Democrat worth your support? I really like Buttigieg, even if I don't agree with every policy decision.
1
@Dave Your unexplained (by you) visceral dislike for Democrats should cause you to look deep inside of yourself. I suppose it is progress that you will no longer vote for the monster who you supported in 2016. Enough more like you and maybe even Texas will surprise you.
We are independents in NC. We both support radical improvements to the healthcare system — to create universal coverage— but neither of us believe that Medicare for All fits the bill; we’d both support Medicare for those who want it while designing a new, fiscally responsible system from the ground up.
We both abhor the student loan crisis but support 0-low interest rates, rollover tax credits, better careers/loan counseling in high school, and a long hard look at exactly WHY costs have skyrocketed—not writing off loans wholesale.
We both support a far better immigration system and guest worker program, with better high tech border control—not a wall, which is already being breached.
He wants the military out of foreign wars and bases. I think it’s more complicated than that. And I abhor the way Trump has decimated the State Dept.
We both cringe at the very easy characterization of the leading Democrats as “free everything” and, worse, Warren’s one-note Tax the Rich solution for everything.
Neither of us care about race, creed, color, gender, or sexuality. Not an issue at all.
I will note vote for Trump under any circumstances. He might “hold his nose”, if Warren or Sanders is the candidate, although he is so appalled by Trump’s use of his office for his own interests and petty vengeance that that’s becoming unlikely. Both of us would consider an honorable, intelligent, moderate candidate from either party.
If that helps.
10
@S Turner
Yes, it helps, thanks. I think a lot of us are struggling with several of these candidates and their various programs. I’m tired of Dems automatically thinking government is the solution for everything. Public-private partnerships aren’t ever considered. Adding more government programs that can easily be mismanaged (free college, wipe out all college debt) is not the answer and neither is abolishing private health insurance. I don’t want troops pulled without thought to the consequences, complicated as you state. Immigration needs to be fixed NOW and Dems better lead with some sense and less outrage.
I will vote Blue but I’d like to be be happy doing so, that means no Warren or Sanders please. This is not the election for their ideas.
3
@Charlene Barringer I have to say that I think there are many more of us than Twitter bubbles indicate. I like parts of all the Democratic candidates, and I do believe that the US is facing huge decisions—on climate, healthcare, etc—that the Republican Party is absolutely derelict on. But how I wish that we had a candidate that I could 100% believe in.
1
How any voter can survey the last few years of alleged criminal and impeachable activities, and be uncertain about what's at stake and who to vote for, is beyond comprehension.
And, that's the problem.
The polls and statistics are fine, but they don't explain the disenfranchisement of many voters. The statistics don't explain the need for disruption, or the underlying hatred, racism, misogyny, homophobia, or xenophobia that have come into plain view and are saturating our media.
If you're undecided, great. Bone up on all the issues, look to your conscience and make that once-in-a-lifetime decision that just might save our democracy and our citizenry.
It is, after all, your duty.
11
My experience with" undecideds" is that they really don't care or care to know whats going on.They are remote from current events and too self involved to vote. 100 million people did not vote last election. Often less then 40% of voters turn out. Ask them any details about policy or candidates records and they don't have a clue.
7
@Richard Head
Or perhaps ‘the undecided’ are trying to determine which of these two dubious factions would be less damaging to them personally (and to the country as a whole) going forward.
5
If after what has transpired in the last three years there are swing voters and if a Democrat who is getting his PhD is considering voting for Trump then our future is very bleak.
16
This is very obviously not the time for Democrats to be progressive. It is obviously the time for Democrats to save the country. They need to run a slightly to the left moderate who can unite the country which, at this time, is more important than putting in place national health care or any of the other liberal projects du jour. Nothing is more important than getting Trump out of office, re-taking the Senate, and continuing to hold the House.
11
Further evidence of how close this election will be. Although the data is pretty blurry, it looked to me like a moderate democrat has the best chance of beating Trump in the battlegrounds. To sum it up, the persuadables want anyone but Trump, except for one that will make extreme, changes to health care and college debt forgiveness. That rules out Bernie or Elizabeth. As an aside, Medicare for all will prove to be very unpopular for many in the democrat base that have excellent healthcare themselves like those in public sector unions. That will hand it over to Joe or Pete if Joe falters on the trail due to fatigue.
3
@bill
The centrist candidate lost in 2016. New plan Democrats.
Almost half of America is apparently incapable of identifying blatant criminal behavior when it is in plain view, some of them simply choose to ignore it. I would remind everyone that at one point during prohibition and after the depression began, some surveys showed nearly half of Chicagoans were willing to vote for Al Capone as mayor. Between a quarter to half of all humans remain a fickle, short sighted and self interested lot. It is up to the other two thirds of us to get up off our couches and keep society moving in the right direction. This kind of thing will likely remain a constant but worthy struggle for many more generations to come.
14
About half, you're correct. But which half?
3
I know this analysis is correct because I am one of them although I am quite politically engaged. I disapprove of Trump and consider him unfit for the office. I voted for neither candidate in 2016. I am a registered Democrat and vote in the primaries. If Democrats nominate Biden Klobuchar or Butagieg I will vote for any of the three. If they nominate Warren I will vote for Trump. I don't like Warren's persona, I don't like her misrepresentation of her heritage done to advance her career, I don't approve the Medicare for all idea to upset the entire medical system and her doomed tax policy to pay for it, I can't see how she is qualified to make such a drastic change, I don't trust someone who is now a progressive but was a conservative Republican until age 47 and made huge sums of money representing big corporations. Fact check this. The other candidates? I wouldn't vote for either side. Democrats: pay attention. It is people like me who will decide the election.
19
@alan brown
Trump’s well documented history of sexual assault, fraud, mob ties, foreign influence, and penchant for lying don’t bother you as much as Warren’s small drop of Cherokee dna? Strange times indeed.
16
@alan brown The Presidency is made up by more than one person. You may know that intellectually, but your actions suggest the opposite. Perhaps you were one of those voters who abhorred Hillary but still would have voted for individuals who were likely to have played a key role in the Hillary Administration that never was. Or maybe you are the type who abhors the Republican establishment, but still vote for Trump because he's "draining the swamp." A presidential administration is made up by some 3000 people who are either going to be Democrats or Republicans. But people like you, Andy, who will "decide the election": you are suggesting that no matter what, you are motivated by one person's personality rather than the enormous and institutional machine that, as even Trump is recognizing, can't be bullied into place. So ask yourself: do you believe that, overall, Republicans or Democrats have the most sound ideas, the most admirable execution? Look at that question and then vote, and forget whether the person at the top of the ticket is named Warren or Tulsi or whatever. So many people are "sick" of politicians and bureaucrats, but these are the mechanics of a democracy--a bit like flight controllers and the ground crew in an airport. Look for competence, watch out for corruption. Look for expertise, watch out for hypocrisy. Look for arguments, watch out for talking points.
2
@alan brown
If you 'wouldn't vote for either side', it will be hard for you to 'decide the election'.
Here's the thing about 'undecideds' and folks who are so dismayed by their choices that they 'wouldn't vote for either side':
adults sometimes need to make hard choices. In the end, we would be a better country, and likely less divided, if instead of whining about what you perceive as a lack of good choices, you grow up and pick the lesser of what you consider two evils.
1
It never ceases to amaze me how Americans can criticize other countries for things such as interning people in concentration camps, lack of democracy and lack of minority rights. Then when it comes to home in North America Americans vote for politicians that intern all illegal immigrants indefinitely in the same camps they despise abroad, demonize all other political parties as the enemy, and actively work to suppress the minority vote.
Oh if you are going to say illegal immigrants are breaking the law and deserve what they get, guess what? The same is said of the people interned abroad. They technically broke the law there too. So why don't people abroad deserve what they get?
3
This article seems to be one of the better researched, accurate, and non-partisan ones published here in the NYT lately. I know several friends and relatives, Democrats and Republicans, who have voiced similar opinions, that want someone in the middle and Biden seems to be that choice. If the Democrats want to push the far left agenda, then some portion will move to Trump. If the Dems move to a more middle of the road person like Biden, or possibly Buttigieg, then that may be the excuse conservative Dems and more liberal Republicans need to vote for a Dem. Middle of the road might depress turnout among the lefties though where all or nothing is the approach for a small number, similar to far right wing radicals. .......
6
For these undecided voters, the specter of social democratic ideas that have succeeded for decades in Canada and Western Europe are so terrifying that such voters would rather stick with a Republican approach that has taken the U.S. to the brink of an autocracy. As a non-citizen, I would say that the most tenacious characteristic of any American, no matter their political leanings, is a blind faith in the political fiction of "personal responsibility." The government owes you nothing; every person is the maker of their own destiny; you earn your success; you are to blame for your own mistakes.
To be an American, then, is to think that you are the center of the world and that your beliefs, however much they conflict with the facts, are worth following off a cliff. That's why the U.S. leads the world in anti-vaxxer sentiments, climate change deniers, rags-to-riches delusions, and distrust in institutions except those that they can see and grasp with a ninth-grade education. Trump voters, Bernie or Bust types, Naderites, Hillary haters, libertarians, folks like Kanye West, Clint Eastwood, and Susan Sarandon: all of you are playing Uno while the people with means are playing chess. Good grief.
24
@J Great comment. As a non-native, I find it sad and dangerous than Americans not only don't take into account how the candidate they're voting for will affect other Americans, but--since America is the world's only superpower with incredible life and death influence--on other people in other countries around the world. I really wish they did.
3
@J
Democrats are playing baseball, and Republicans are driving tanks around the field.
You would think after the first game like that, Democrats would actually complain about all the cheating. Instead they dutifully take the blame for the mess and clean it up in time for the next game. Then they promise that they won't try to win, as long as they are allowed to play.
Trump is attacking the Constitution on TV and Twitter, even calling for violence against citizens with no mention of due process of law.
If he was a Democratic President, Republicans would chant High Crimes, Impeach him, and tie every Democrat to those High Crimes.
I'm watching Frontline Right now. In 1980, the average trucker was making $100,000 per year, in today's dollars. Then trucking was deregulated and now the average income for a trucker is $40,000, down 60%! Republicans did that, but instead of using it against them, establishment Democrats protect the system that did that, even as Trump pretends Republicans had nothing to do with it
Centrist Democrats make be playing three dimensional chess, but they play to lose.
Stop surrendering on behalf of moderates and the left. It is your constant surrendering that chases away "swing voters "
Every single unicorn is primarily influenced by the economy. If they cared deeply about anything else, they would have decided already.
1
“ Persuadable voters are so powerful because their votes effectively count twice: A voter who flips from one party to the other not only adds a vote to one side, but also subtracts one from the other side’s tally. A wide array of evidence confirms their decisive role in recent elections.”
This is statistical nonsense.
Why? Because it’s just as likely all of them switch on an average meaning they cancel each other out. You’re assuming the entire group can persuaded as one to vote a specific way but they are by definition a group that is ideologically inconsistent.
7
@Mathias If there was a poll that had candidate a with 45 votes and candidate b with 55 votes, that would be a ten vote difference. Now what happens when fivepeople leave b and go to a, those five voters caused a ten vote switch to a gets 50 and b gets 50..five votes eliminates a ten vote difference.
1
I find it very depressing that so many people in this country have not been paying attention. Trump's policies have isolated the US from the rest of the world; out traditional allies will not stand beside us if we suffer another tragedy such as 9/11. Trump has rolled back environmental regulations, and withdrawn us from the climate treaty, now the only country in the world not to be a signatory. We are cutting support for free lunch programs and programs which help ensure that children are not discriminated against because of race, creed, religion or sexual orientation. We are separating children at the border who are fleeing oppression and coming through the process legally. We have expanded the national debt through tax cuts which overwhelmingly favored the richest Americans and has not contributed to growth. We have a president who is using his office to personally benefit himself and his family. He is a racist, a misogynist and a pathological liar. There is nothing Trump is doing or has done that is worthy of approval.
33
Let’s be real, there is a disturbing percentage of our citizenry who like Trump because they themselves are racist. They like the cruelty. They like the tweets. They like the barely veiled threats to journalists and they like the sexual aggression. Many of these people live in so-called swing states. So the question remains what do you do about it as Democrats? One theory is to go court these people somehow, to try to persuade them to come over to our side. Call this the purple America wish-fulfillment fantasy theory. The other theory is that these people are racists who want more racism etc., and that we don’t really want them anywhere near our political process, and that we need to flood the voting booths next year with brand new voters, mostly young people, people of color, college students, immigrants.. how do we do that? Well it starts with anyone not named Biden, and a very clear eyed skepticism toward anyone (looking at you Mayor Pete) peddling purple America baloney. We are in a struggle for this nation whether you know it or want it or not; the other side doesn’t waste time on fantasies, neither should we.
16
@Keef In cucamonga
They like Trump because Mr. Manly Man has made life more miserable for half the country that is American women and girls - as he promised to do.
3
Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are basically the same policy wise so what is the difference?
Warren's too radical "they" say so why hasn't Klobuchar, who is arguably the female equivalent to Biden policy wise, risen?
Simple answer SEX.
A lot of people say it would be great to have a woman in charge but when push comes to shove they can't seem to vote for one.
judy
20
I find this article to be the most depressing piece of news in many months.
So many Americans are comfortable with a racist scofflaw in the White House just to poke greedy politicians in the eye.
Isn't it reasonable to expect if we had mandatory public campaign financing in much shorter election cycles -- England does six weeks -- that the crooks would leave government and only public servants would remain?
It's the dirty money that attracts the rats.
23
Paula Mulhearn,
Kinda late for Democrats to try to trick me into believing they care about Americans over illegal immigrants.
Actions speak louder than words spoken later.
4
Some people can care about more than one group of people.
17
The issues at stake could not be bigger- the habitability of our planet is in the balance. This is not a time that calls for compromise, and equivocation. We need strong leaders who can work swiftly to pick up the shambles of our polity (state departments, lower federal court judgeships, etc), and focus on the ENVIRONMENT!!! Biden is not that guy. All this tea-leave-reading does not take into account the fact that 10% of eligible voters will actually be from generation Z- they care about the environment- bigly!
2
Something the article fails to mention is that independents that sometimes vote for Republicans know that they never have to cast a vote for Hannity, Limbaugh, or Ingraham. Frequently Democratic candidates or Congressmen combine all of the Republicans into one punching bag including the blowhard media people, but at the voting booth it is never that simple. Trying to treat a Republican candidate as if they are the equivalent of a paid-for-clicks media personality just amounts to demagoguery and is a turn off.
2
My take on this is: 1. How many will actually vote?
2. Many of them would seem to prefer "other, or none of the above" to a female candidate.
It is disheartening to read that nonwhite voters would vote to protect their right to an automatic weapon over the environment, nuclear weapons controls, access to health care and the racist and mean-spirited tenor of the country. It would be interesting to see the ethnic makeup of the 'nonwhite' group--
And, how can anyone who is paying attention support the incumbent's performance 63-32%? That is truly frightening to me.
4
I will vote for the Dem candidate, and hope it is Elizabeth Warren. Not voting is a vote for 45.
19
Please do not use the term ‘non-white’ to refer to people of color. It defines this demographic group of people in terms of the ‘white’ majority and dominant group. It implies that ‘white’ is the default for what is real/normal or the preferred group.
Thank You and Sincerely,
Ms. Kathryn M. Kreyenbuhl-Gardner
9
@Kathryn Kreyenbuhl-Gardner
Non-white is perfectly valid in polling, as well as outside of polling, when non-whites self-divide that way.
@Kathryn Kreyenbuhl-Gardner
As a non-white person, I couldn’t disagree more. I hate the term “people of color.” It presumes some kind of solidarity exists (it doesn’t), and more often than not is just another way of saying black people. We’re “people of color” when convenient, i.e., when we support narratives about African Americans and, to a lesser extent, Hispanics.
It's a tough choice:
One of the most earnest, honest knowledgeable, hard-working, passionate, articulate fighters for the nonrich that modern America has ever seen in Senator Elizabeth Warren.
OR
The most dishonest pathological liar, tax-dodger, truth-dodger and undignified demagogues that modern America has ever seen.
Guess you'll have to flip a dumb coin, swing voters.
73
How I wish the media would give undecided voters a rest. I'd rather not hear from people until they've made up their minds. And like anyone who has ever flipped a coin, deep-down, they know how they want it to land.
5
As a 50-something Ohioan, I am dismayed by the attitude of the "Bernie Bros", who have stated unequivocally that they will sit out the election entirely if Bernie doesn't win the nomination. I am convinced this is how we got Trump to begin with.
With that said, how does the Democratic party engage progressively liberal millennials without losing the genuinely moderate majority of the party?
I'm thinking Mayor Pete. He's smart, erudite, experienced, honest, thoughtful and level-headed. We need a lot of that right now.
I personally think that moderate America isn't going to embrace Elizabeth Warren, but that the progressive millenials will like the idea of being able to vote for a gay man. And as much as minorities are somewhat skittish of his homosexuality, my gut says they will still vote for him if it's between him and Trump.
12
@Elizabeth
The good news is that, unlike those IDed in this article, more white, college educated FEMALES - even Republicans - are voting Democrat. See: 2018 midterms, esp. those reliable red locales turned purple and even blue.
@ Elizabeth
You are correct on the Bernie Bro’s, they hurt Hillary big time and gave the election to TRump. I worked on Hillary’s campaign and saw the effect up close. I detest them but especially Sanders who set up that dynamic and stoked it all the way to the convention and beyond. He is doing the same this time, he just hasn’t settled on anyone specific. I don’t want to vote for Sanders ever and Warren either. I’m hoping for Biden, Klobachar or Bullock; some combination of those three. I’m not sold at all on Mayor Pete; he’s thoughtful and well-spoken but too young and immature. He is still the mayor of South Bend, his term isn’t over until end of this year! His city is in crisis yet he has spent nearly a year campaigning for president! He admitted he “couldn’t get it done” when asked in the debate about the problems in South Bend. Not a good statement for a mayor and definitely not a good message to black voters. As for liberal millennials, I hope they realize what 4 more years of TRump will do to this country, it won’t be pretty. I’m in a quandary as I watch the campaigns but am old enough to realize I may have to cast a very distasteful vote just to get TRump out of the White House. I hope the Bernie Bro’s can join me.
The article points out that swing voters prefer by large margins one who promises to find common ground over one who promises to fight for a progressive agenda, and they prefer a moderate over a liberal.
Okay, that explains Biden's good and Warren's poor polling in this group. But it does nothing to explain why Bernie is polling significantly better than Warren. Voters who truly hold those views would not support Bernie (who is openly more progressive and liberal and refusing to compromise). It is poor reporting for this article to not mention once that perhaps gender is an explanation, since ideology clearly isn't the answer.
11
I voted in every election since I was 18 until 2016. McCain had it right about Benghazi and it was clear Trump was going to be a problem.
Like George Will I was a Republican. Now when I look at the Country all I see is partisanship. Warren is the “ Progressive” version of Trump.
The US is supposed to be a representative government. But the onset of political extremism has only enabled the decline of representation. Now it is the extreme left and right that commands the airwaves and the views of the electorate
Please give us a real choice Biden, Klobuchar or Mit Romney just not Trump or Warren. I want to vote in 2020.
5
@Frank Love I get that you might have policy disagreements with Elizabeth Warren, but how is she in any way similar to Trump? Seems like a major example of false equivalence to me.
A few more thousand words wasted trying to figure out folks whose tolerance for Trump is beyond belief, except to say they have no sense of right or wrong, nor even good and evil.
Forget Great, Make America Dumb Again.
15
@Lewis Ford Oh, it's already dumb again. Will it ever recover its mind? That is the question.
2
This is an analysis of ALL REGISTERED VOTERS. Nate Cohn, please tell us what percentage of eligible voters are registered. Then we can start to consider how to weigh efforts to persuade these unicorns versus efforts to register/persuade new voters. NYTimes should spend an equal amount of shoe leather talking to these unregistered individuals.
3
Their alleged minds.
4
Ireland is looking good.
7
@John
Too male and too Catholic - also expensive since 2000 - but gorgeous and well-educated.
Why is it that supposedly progressive people can only consider moving to very white countries?
I'm sorry but if there are that many undecided voters at this juncture they are obviously people who don't read and are completely disengaged from current events. Persuading them seems a herculean task.
Nobody is coming to save us, America. Vote. Tell your friends. Talk to each other.
11
If you’re still considering Trump, just admit it. Yes, you will judged as a racist, someone who doesn’t care about the environment or the poor and downtrodden. But admit it to yourself and everyone else that you don’t care about that if it keeps a Democrat out of the WH.
7
This article misses the point. To win democrats need to convince the so-called persuadable voters not to show up at the polls. They do this through the impeachment process, continuing to loudly demonstrate how unfit Trump is to be president. Most persuadables Identified in this article are just non-voters. These are mostly conservative, older voters
The real battle is to get the millions of other people that don’t vote to vote. These are largely young people who don’t believe they can impact the political process. A candidate like Warren is exactly what is needed to bring these people out. That’s how the Democrats win the election by appealing to the non-voters on the liberal side of the spectrum. Biden will not bring these people out.
So if you really want to elucidate what’s happening in this election, you need to look at the non-voting, young, liberal people who are actually going to decide this election, by the very active voting - many for the first time.
1
These voters represent 15 percent of the electorate in the battleground states, and they say there’s a chance they’ll vote for either Mr. Trump or the Democrat.
And these states are predominately red or blue? For every republican talking point you cater to how many democrats do you lose? Give us the specific states and their details.
As these voters start to engage it would follow that progressive policy which is popular would be of interest to them. Right now they are disengaged so it is imperative progressives meet and greet in those communities not to figure them out but to tell them where they stand.
There should be a survey of those who might swing between Democrat and abstaining. I would never vote for Trump but if the Democratic candidate is Sanders or Warren, I might abstain. I am concerned about their positions on India, Kashmir, and Israel, among other issues.
2
As I am too -- but you know Mr. Trump will throw Israel under the bus when it suits him.
3
These types of articles fascinate me. I am an older voter who has only met one undecided voter in my life. In was in 2016 and she was a millennial who was shockingly uninformed on many, many things, not just politics. She appeared to have a lemming-like devotion to Bernie Sanders because her friends did, but when it came time to actually vote she told me she did not know who to vote for until she stepped into the voting booth. She pushed the button for Clinton.
I can truly state she is the only undecided voter I have ever known. The others who appear undecided actually never vote because "they don't like politics."
The second thing that fascinates me is that I personally have never known one voter who voted for a presidential candidate because that candidate visited their state. This common analysis that Clinton lost Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania because she didn't visit more often sounds reasonable, but yet I have never met a voter who made a decision because of how many visits the candidate made to their state.
14
Here is the thing. Evem if Biden wins, he is not going to defeat Trump. Weirdly enough Trump is more coherent than Biden. Biden has an even bigger problem, young people are not energized by him, it was young people that gave Obama his elections, and in the case of Biden it will be a repeat of Hillary. So honestly, worry about the senate and house races, because congress is our only hope to survive Trump. I am Warren supporter, but I will vote for Biden if he wins the primary; now, I don't think that my young peers will necessairly follow suit, they didn't for Hillary and they won't for Biden.
5
I wish people gave less thought to feeling "energized" and more to the loosening of environmental regulations and curtailing of civil rights of all sorts, or the winking at far-right extremists, in which the Trump administration is engaging.
I am at ease with some conservative stances, but not for any law that prioritizes heterosexual marriages over gay marriages, nor for laws curtailing the right of women to terminate a pregnancy when it becomes clear to them -- to them and not the state -- that they must have an abortion -- nor for the rape of our environment under the flimsy guise of jobs growth -- nor for tax laws and banking regulations that make it impossible for the precarious middle class to retain and safely grow the money they have put away for the inevitable misery that old age brings (if one lives that long).
All this "feeling."
Think, kids!
2
@Jorge Núñez
It was misogyny and racism within the Democratic Party that gave the wholly unqualified but charming Obama his big 2008 win, with lukewarm 2012 and truly awful midterms bookended.
2
So basically try to appeal to a unicorn. You’re not sure what the unicorn truly cares about but you know it doesn’t pay attention very well to reality. It is a unicorn after all, why bother.
Just remember the unicorn loves the status quo moderates! Or it’s a republican! But it is never a progressive!
Oh yes and remember electability!
3
I believe that anyone who supports Trump currently, or would vote for him in 2020, has something deeply wrong with them. It's time for therapy or some form of soul searching. To reelect someone so corrupt, clueless and unkind is unthinkable. Yet millions will do it anyway.
9
Really don’t care about polls. It’s the far left’s turn to take control and set policies after we destroyed the planet and the American dream by embracing the middle and right.
5
Swing voters seem to have no really decisive disgust with the way Trump runs things. This indicates a number of things: they have no disgust with vulgarity, mendacity, demagoguery or outright fraud. This confirms me in my view that Trump is the All American and the shame that a large number of Americans deserve. If you can put up with trash in favor of mediocre economic benefits you don't deserve to live in a constitutional republic or even deserve the right to vote.
7
An important question is do Democrats count those voters as in-group or not? For example, suppose a voter voted for Obama twice, then voted for Trump. Do you consider them a traitor, lost cause, or a long lost friend you'd like to get together with again? Your attitude, multiplied by millions, makes a difference.
4
This article right here is proof that it doesn’t matter who the Democrats nominate.
People are either going to (a) vote for Trump or (b) vote against Trump. The so-called wild-cards are people who are looking for an excuse/justification to vote for Trump, and they will conveniently find one by Election Day.
Either America is able to come back from this destructive chapter and begin the hard work of putting things back together, or it is as petty, stupid, and dyspeptic as we feared.
As someone who never saw the shiny, vaguely egalitarian America of yore, I can’t avoid pessimism. I grew up in the America of the “Moral Majority,” permanent war, and directions to go out shopping as a way to fight back against the 9/11 attacks. This Trump business feels like something we should have predicted.
8
Turnout. Turnout. Turnout.
Stop fighting the last war - and forget about old, white people. The reason that Trump won in 2016 had to do with poor enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton.
The people that Democrats need to energize are young people. Our message should be that 'It's your future that will be threatened if he Wins".
You'll be deep in debt due to your student loans. The planet will keep getting worse. The rich people, who rigged the system against you a long time ago, will only get stronger and make your life worse.
They are not stupid. They 'get it'. You just need a candidate that knows how to frame that message. All of a sudden, states that shouldn't be competitive, start to become competitive.
3
Trump won’t be getting a majority ... he never will. But the electoral college will override the majority ... again ... just watch ... and weep.
5
I find it very disgusting that the article mention that persuadable voters are low turn out voters. What do these people want? In my opinion, I find them not to be not very bright and want others to do the voting then they will sit back and complain.
2
What person with any sense of morals can be on the fence?
10
Finally, NYT is starting to wake up to the reality that Warren would be a very beatable nominee. In my estimation she would be weaker than Hillary was and extremely vulnerable in the Midwest. If people are serious about running a candidate who can actually win in the Midwest and thereby remove a dangerous and hateful individual from the Oval Office, think Biden - Klobuchar. This is not a far left country, but I think we are poised to move center - left. It is no time for over reaching politically. Our democracy is at stake.
9
@George
I'm not exactly excited about Biden but I would vote for a Biden-Klobuchar ticket in a heartbeat, and feel good knowing we have a very strong chance against Trump.
3
@George
Ha ha ha. Everyone excoriates Trump for his moral vacuum and caveman like attitude towards most females who are fair game in his eyes. That said, Biden is also still a twentieth century man with his incessant touchy-feely behaviour around females, too. Hardly more wholesome nor dignified, to be honest.
2
What is there left to decide? Am I missing something? Have these people been asleep for the past three years?
11
Swing voters will decide the 2020 election? Frankly, I fail to see what someone's sexual habits have anything to do with whether he/she is more likely to vote for Trump or a Democrat.
8
@Jay Orchard I see what you did...
2
"They prefer, by 82 percent to 11 percent, one who promises to find common ground over one who promises to fight for a progressive agenda; and they prefer a moderate over a liberal, 75 percent to 19 percent." The Democrats' choice comes down to this: Do you want to beat Trump or do you want to preach to people on how they should think? The latter choice will surely lead to defeat. Trump at least pretended to listen to them, which is why he's now fouling the office. Get off your high horses and realize that not everyone shares Beltway elite views.
4
None of the wise stuff we all are saying matters unless a Democrat beats Trump in 2020. Period. So electability matters a boatload. Obviously.
2
Lots of comments venting about this article -- e.g., how can people still be undecided, a true progressive will swing the vote and get more voters out, let's not pay attention to the numbers, we're doomed. The poll and the analysis look valid to me. If you have a better set of numbers based on better measurements, put them out. Remember, the task is to win the electoral college vote in 3 - 6 swing states. That's it, that's all that counts. None of the issues that divide Democrats outweighs the need to turn Trimp out of the White House. If that means that Warren supporters (like me) had better vote for Biden in the primary in order for a Democrat to have the best chance of winning in November, then that's what we have to do, even if it looks like caving in to misogyny. Sorry if that is upsetting, but it's less upsetting than the thought of seeing Trimp standing at the podium on Inauguration Day 2021.
3
First, it would be very useful to know WHY these voters feel the way the do. Why do they so dislike Warren? Is it because they believe a woman shouldn't be President? A fair assumption given that they supported Hilary about the same. What is it they like about Trump, and dislike about the others? This is the major problem with polls: raw numbers don't usually tell the tale.
Most of these voters already seem "tribalized" - they aren't likely to vote for any Democrat. Why is that? Does this mean the Dems should simply write them off, and instead focus on offsetting this lost "tribe" by increasing turnout of progressive leaning voters?
Living in deeply Red country I can attest that very few will cast a vote for any Democrat. They've been indoctrinated for decades now to believe that Democrats don't share their values, and won't deliver on anything that would improve their lives. Given this deep prejudice, I would advise the Democrats to not bother trying to directly woo these voters. That said, I believe they can lay the groundwork for eventually capturing back a fair number of them.
First, they need to focus on winning state and local races with candidates that the people can identify with, even if they don't necessarily agree with all aspects of their platform. Second, nationally, they need to roll out programs that will regenerate jobs and growth in these areas. Over time, this can win voter loyalty.
But they should not gear their agenda to voters who won't support them.
7
I am one of the undecideds. I am an independent, but typically vote R. In 2016, I voted for Clinton. I am fiscally conservative, anti-gun, socially progressive I would say. Kind of an idealogical mutt. Although fiscally conservative, I think there are a lot of opportunities for govt/private collaboration on our biggest challenges. I live in the Philly suburbs. I am undecided when it's Trump vs Any D. I would vote for Biden, Pete, Amy, Bennett, Bullock, Booker (Bennett and Bullock are my favorites, but have no chance). So you know who I wouldn't vote for. If either of those two are the nominee, I don't know what I would do - I will figure that out if and when it happens.
3
@Tom
Klobuchar is the better, smarter, female and younger moderate Biden; the veep on her ticket ought be Bennet.
There you go. Undecided no more!
2
@Maggie
Nice ticket, thanks!
@Maggie I will take it. Thank you
Evolve or perish - our Constitution is not immune to the requirement. Trump is going to lose by 5,000,000 votes - maybe more, and potentially win reelection. Our election rules must evolve to accommodate the obvious will of the electorate or, risk the endurance of our democracy.
3
@MCJ
Perhaps Mr Trump will help 'evolve' the Constitution upon reelection by eliminating the number of consecutive terms a president can enjoy, too.
This is not an election about one-payer health care, gun violence, immigration or free college tuition. Those are social issues we can solve together with the Republicans when the time comes. The 2020 election is about what kind of president we have. 2020 is about electing someone honest and caring, and not Donald Trump!
Democrats should just say that unlike Donald Trump, they CARE about all of us. They will work to give everyone the opportunity to develop physically, emotionally and intellectually. No need to get bogged down in specific plans right now. Republicans are only waiting to attack any Democratic ideas as tax raising socialism.
Democrats should just say they CARE about the United States being fair and honest with their global friends and neighbors, and they CARE about world peace and bringing our troops home. The Republicans won’t argue because they agree.
Democrats should just say they CARE about corruption in politics and will get rid of the crooked politicians in Washington. Republicans won’t disagree with that either.
The Democrats should just say Donald Trump is divisive, dishonest and destructive!
It is time to “Make America CARE Again”
5
Hopefully, Warren will be the nominee. Medicare for all is a sure loser, given that the vast majority of people like their private insurance. The last several years, CO2 and other pollutants have been declining dramatically as coal has been replaced by natural gas. But Warren wants to ban fracking and opposes nuclear, so guess what? Add to that her calls for reparations and the seizing of guns, the Democrats will have a real winner in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Good luck, Democrats. If you have any brains at all, Biden is your candidate.
4
@Michael Looking at USA internal polling, Medicare for all has positive views by over two thirds of those inquired about it. Across the political spectrum, averaging all states. Far from a 'sure loser', at least as far as pre-election polling goes.
It's becoming clear that women are going to be shut out of executive level electoral posts for the long run. Apparently it's okay if they run for a legislative post, but not the top one. So it's looking like Biden or nothing. Our nation is so tragically self-limiting.
5
After reading this article I am so depressed, if Trump is elected again the American people will have no one to blame but themselves for the final nail in the death of our country and democracy...
2
@Rjnick
Care to elaborate, please? How does one man kill America? Not even David Lynch would dare entertain such a baroque possibility in his surrealistic fare.
2
No matter who they are, they are casting a vote for their children and grandchildren.
4
Anyone who can’t decide not to vote for Trump at this point does not deserve accommodation or consideration. If our fate rests on the irresponsible, we’re a failed country and join the ranks of other failed countries. Hopefully the civilized world will carry on.
Who knew “idiocracy” would come so suddenly, so soon.
9
@James
Idiocracy arrived in 2000 and never left.
1
Well, this group of voters makes me feel like my vote doesn’t even matter. That’s why we should get rid of electoral college and let the popular vote win. Basically all the candidates can say, “meh, whatever” to the rest of us and spend all their money on these voters just to win. How does that make any sense? What about when a state is split, and the majority of the state votes for a certain party? That means the hundreds of thousands of opposing votes just go right into the dumpster. We want people to vote? Well, how about starting with making sure that everyones voice is actually counted.
2
@AeroThatsMe
totally agree , why should there even be " battleground " states ?
1
I am one of these voters. I live in a small, hipster, western town. I could vote for Trump or Warren, probably not Sanders and not Biden. I don’t like Donald Trump, but I also don’t need to like him. Moral indignation is moral immaturity.
1
What a joke of a democracy we live in when these "swing voters" hold more sway over the future of our country than the rest of us do.
8
Talk about burying the lede! They're not too likely to vote at all!
If you're patient enough to scroll through all of the data that actually suggests that these "persuadable" voters don't show show up anyhow, what you'd likely conclude is that these tiny slivers of the sample base are too small and too statistically wobbly to project anything at all. Except for clicks on this non-sensical analysis. Now show us the turnout model that show much higher participation rates among young people (as in 2018) and the relevance of these folks will decline even further.
4
It's ironic that the most politically disengaged people often decide an election.
859
@Deirdre
Well, actually the vast majority decide it -- if we vote.
26
@Deirdre - You highlight the point that instead of broadly focusing on 'swing voters' (a sector which the author notes contains many non-voters in both 2016 as well as 2018) that attention should be directed at 'likely' swing voters.
As well, this piece reiterates that Dems must nominate a candidate who can win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to win the Electoral College - otherwise, it won't matter if Dems win the popular vote by 20 million, nationally.
35
@Deirdre The implication of your comment is that the most open-minded among us are politically disengaged and those who are wedded to ideology and whose minds are made up are not, when in fact it is often the latter who are most politically disengaged, as they feel they already know what they need to to make an “informed” decision. The truly politically engaged are engaged with candidates and ideas from both sides - up until it’s time to vote.
19
To be undecided at this juncture, after three years of failed policies, scandals, corruption and ruinous foreign policy, says much about the American electorate. And none of it is good.
1094
Let’s be real, the one policy most of these people really cared about is the tax cut. Everything else matters less.
25
@Dean Roberts it’s more a statement in the lousy democratic choices than on trump
17
@Mark if the democratic choices are so “ lousy” then they should be choosing trump. If they find that trump is far from presidential and leading the country the country then they should be choosing ANY dem.
But undecided? That’s just intellectually lazy, morally irresponsible.
112
This pollster is reporting information that seems hard to fathom. It is on the surface contrary to 538, yet I am sure it is has some validity. Perhaps his criteria or definition of voters is slightly different. Whatever it is the news is troubling and confounding to people who spend time watching the circus that is the present administration. It is scary and seems to say Putin(Trump) has succeeded in ripping this country apart. Most informed citizens never saw this coming. And the ones who support Trump are now not very different than those of the Confederacy.
Until Democrats decide whether their nominee will be a centrist like Biden or a leftist like Warren, asking independents or other undecideds whether they will vote for Trump or the Democratic nominee is meaningless. I for one despise and will never vote for Trump but if the Democratic nominee is Warren, I will not cast a vote for President.
2
Anyone capable of even provisionally supporting Trump, of even including him in one’s list of possibilities, is going to vote for Trump. It’s not worth trying to decode whatever mental gymnastics they’re either actually going through or telling pollsters that they’re going through. Anyone who says they could vote for Sanders or Biden but not Warren is not someone with a coherent political stance whose vote we can possibly capture if we just frame our messaging in a certain way and we shouldn’t bother trying to do so (since that voter is probably going to vote for Trump anyway regardless of who is the Democratic nominee.) Trying to microfocus our attention on these people is a fool’s errand and will just alienate millions of other voters whose more logical concerns are being ignored.
The swing voters we should be focusing on aren’t the Obama/Trump voters but the Obama/non-voters, the people who stayed home in 2016 because they felt there was no one for them to vote for. Whether the pundits like it or not, there are not enough American voters willing to coalesce around an uninspiring “consensus” candidate out of a shared revulsion for the opposition. Just ask Romney, Kerry, Dole or Mondale if that strategy has ever worked. “Safe” candidates aren’t safe. The candidates who win are those with the courage of their convictions.
And to those old-timers worried about repeating 1972: I think you should be more worried about repeating 2016.
6
"Among those who voted in 2016, 48 percent say they voted for Mr. Trump, 33 percent for Hillary Clinton, and 19 percent for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein..."
I wonder... many people, myself included, held their noses in order to vote for Hillary. IMO, she was a terrible candidate. She had no charisma, no excitement, nothing to grab onto to make her compelling. And she was the heir presumptive to the various Democratic dynasties, as pushed by Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, the DNC Chair.
But... she had the most significant experience in government in recent memory. (Bush41 had more, but that's another story.) That level of qualifications should have been enough to propel her into the Oval Office. But it wasn't.
So I wonder about how accurate these 2016 poll numbers really are. It's easy to say that she would have won if Stein and Johnson hadn't run (remember how Nader took crucial votes away from Gore in 2000). But suppose that Hillary wasn't the candidate, and that the person who was had gobs of charisma and gravitas and charm and all that (think Obama, either one). Would Trump have done as well with Independents in that case? I think not. In fact, I think that Trump was so detestable, especially to the unaffiliated, that they would have voted AGAINST Trump in large numbers, vs FOR the Democrat. Even with the Russian help Trump got, I think he would have lost against a better candidate.
Hindsight is 20/20. But we should be skeptical of polls. And we need better candidates!
2
10 years back when I came to US, I had $1000 in my wallet. Now I own a home in Rye. my retirement fund is growing at almost 10%. Even high yield saving accounts are growing at 2%. First time in many years I saved more on tax. My citizenship application was expedited with intervention of White House. So tell me again why should I vote for a socialist democrat?
4
Most of your “10 years” was under a Democratic President:
9
Banking on groups of voters that historically have low turnout is like buying lottery tickets to fund your retirement. Better stick with the bird in hand and put together a party platform that appeals to those who do consistently get out and vote.
2
The country is so evenly divided and committed to that division that the 2020 election in the battleground states will not be decided by the persuadable or the flipable but by the marginal voters from each side who can be demotivated enough to stay home. Call them the Stay Homables.
The winning strategy is to take the air out of the other side’s balloon.
Clearly this is the counter to Trump’s long-standing approach, which is to feed the short term emotional gratification of liberals hatred. Feels good, energizes his marginals.
I have been continually amazed that with all the education and resources of the liberal camp and with the long-standing understanding of the importance of Emotional Intelligence the Progressives have so strongly attached themselves to the atavistic feelings of hatred and fear. We are not as developed as we imagine.
1
What about the effect of turn out? The would definitely vote for 'x' if they bothered to show?
1
How, after the past almost three years, are any half-way informed Americans still not clear on how they will vote.
Trump is exactly who he is, he doesn’t hide anything, it doesn’t seem that he has to since the craven Republicans will stand by him, no what what. You’re either okay with him or you’re not.
But if there are really people who haven’t decided - they should realize Trump gets more brazen as time passes and Republicans continue to support “Trump being Trump”.
If he wins the next election, ALL brakes are off. ALL National and international events will be at Trump properties. White House will mov to Mar-a-Lago - why not, Congress won’t matter at all. It will all be about making the wealthy wealthier, getting rid of all safety nets so we’ll all be willing to work for low wages. Medical care, not unless you’re rich. Social security & Medicare, too expensive.
Two things - immigration won’t be an issue. No one will want to come here and my Canadian citizenship will be a prize.
1
I shudder to think there are people who have not decided who they will vote for and why. There will be no magic in the next 360+ days.
2
Despite a constant deluge of articles such as this which either hint or demand that Democrats run as Republicans, the roadmap to Democratic wins is still quite simple, in Pennsylvania and everywhere else: Democratic base. Democratic base. Democratic base.
1
There's another way to calculate the undecideds.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the aggregate of Trump's approval poll numbers have always hovered around 42%. Never more, rarely less, no matter what. That means that no more than 58% of voters will ever possibly vote against him.
Today, 48% want Trump impeached and removed from office.
So, 48/58 = 83% of voters who might ever possibly vote against Trump already want him gone. That suggests 17% are undecided to some extent.
Cohn finds that in the Swing states, 15% are undecided to some extent. This agrees with the above 17% calculation for nationwide voters.
What all this suggests is that only a moderate Democrat can win. As much as I like Warren, and I have given her money, only Biden or Buttigieg can win. Of course, should the impeachment hearings turn up something really really bad, even my dog could beat Trump.
1
@Ok Joe ''What all this suggests is that only a moderate Democrat can win. As much as I like Warren, and I have given her money, only Biden or Buttigieg can win. '' That's assuming the only way to win is by convincing these undecided people you've tried to pin. That's also forgetting that a 'moderate Democrat', as you put it, has not won an election in eons because they don't get their democratic *read more liberal* base out to vote.
I still don't believe in these so-called "swing voters." I do however believe there are a fair number of people who will lie about it, and I believe those people will vote for a candidate who is also well-known for lying constantly.
3
I’m watching today’s turnout in the Kentucky elections. If it is low turnout, then it should be taken as an alarm for the Democratic Party. In what should be a given to vote Mr. Trump out, the Democrats continue to be their own worst enemy. I see the candidates shaking up their teams, trying to salvage their chances. Perhaps, it is time for a shakeup at the top of the DNC too.
3
Must we have all these polls so early? I know people often make up the minds a long time before election day, but I just can't forget 2016 and the terribly inaccurate polls everyone was producing.
1
If someone's reluctant to vote for a Democrat because he's afraid of Medicare for All, I'd say relax, don't worry -- because it's never going to happen, regardless of who the nominee is. So do the right thing and vote for the Democrat.
1
And I’d bet they are over 65 and already on Medicare.
Yet more evidence that the Democrats would be making a tragic mistake if they nominate Elizabeth Warren over one of their more moderate options: "They prefer, by 82 percent to 11 percent, one who promises to find common ground over one who promises to fight for a progressive agenda; and they prefer a moderate over a liberal, 75 percent to 19 percent"
3
By the time election day arrives, the majority of the population including democrats, republicans, independents and non-voters are totally worn out with the 2 year election process. Anything can happen during this time period to change the election landscape so I don't put too much faith in all of the predictions and polls. We do have a serious problem though when a few people in a few states knowingly determine the outcome of an election in a country of 300 million people. We are living in the 21st century during a technological revolution and still continue with an 18th century way of electing our leaders.
3
Americans want their government to work; to fix the roads, keep the air and water clean, provide good schools, and protections from poverty.
Most swing voters don't want to replace Trump's empty promises with another set of empty promises
Winning the more moderate swing voters will bring a blue Congress which is essential for a President to get things done. For too long Mitch McConnell has blocked good legislation and he needs to be removed. The right Democratic candidate will help win the Senate.
The resistance to Elizabeth Warren may indicate the strength of chauvinism with some voters.
3
@Joe Barnett I’m a female , white progressive voter. I will not vote to nominate warren. Her medical plan, free college and more will hand the election to trump. Trump blew a 3 trill hole in the budget, what do you think warrens plans will do?
3
What seems to be missing here is concern over continued Russian interference in our election, especially since little if anything has been done to provide protections. If the Mueller report did nothing else it was clear on how concerted and complex was the Russians drive to elect Trump and how it will continue for 2020. It is certain that they will not give up their boy,Trump, easily. Frankly, I am less concerned about the impact of people who are astonishingly nebulous about the very distinct differences in the 2 parties, than about the real threat from Russia .
9
@Diane B Hopefully people who are paying attention, and have been, Will think carefully about who they vote for and why. I think being educated about the Russians being out there selling their candidates should make us skeptical about candidates and do our homework.
1
@Vivien Hessel. All the homework and thought in the world will not counter computer hacking, vote tampering,etc.
2
Among the persuadable voters are a lot of the none of the aboves, who don't like either Trump or much of the Democrat;s field either. If I remember correctly, Maureen Dowd mentioned them in one of her columns some Presidential election further back in time, before Obama came on the scene. They likely feel that the established parties often present two horrible choices that have them trying to decide to either hold their nose and pick one that is less terrible. or find them both so unacceptable that they sit this one out or pick someone else as a protest vote. I would bet the numbers are a lot larger than the writer thinks because the unicorn is someone that is willing to sit down with no agenda and discuss their motivations. Their votes can't be captured with the argument that this election is too important to not have them cast their votes for my party (that is said in virtually every election and they are going to be numb to it), so the real answer is to give them a candidate that has behaviors are consistent with their sense of stated ethics, don't pander, and tell the unvarnished truth, even if it is thought that will alienate part of the base. I would speculate that someone always think their preferred candidate has all these qualities and is the opposite of Trump, but unfortunately a good deal of the field has demonstrated to this segment in some other way their interests are not being addressed in a meaningful way. The task for Democrats is to convince them otherwise
10
@Kevin Your comment is spot on.
Analysis of undecideds is useful and this column does a good job peeling away the layers.
But when looking at potential outcomes of different democratic candidates one also has to factor in turnout. Which candidates are more likely to increase democratic turnout? Would a candidate that currently polls lower among undecideds offset that gap with more democratic voters?
I don’t know the answer but an analysis that leaves the turnout variable falls short of giving the full picture.
1
Maybe in a perfect world I would understand someone who will is 50/50 voting for either Trump or a Democrat. In this day and age that's like comparing an apple and a scarf, there is no comparison. I still don't get it. What do they want? What choice could be so stark?
13
A large number of eligible voters dont vote, in every election. This survey identified a number of those residents, congratulations. I wouldn't bother targeting political messaging to them - nothing has gotten through to them in the last four years.
5
One can assume with confidence that if Bernie Sanders loses the nomination for a second straight time his supporters will stay home. And they may even leave the Democratic Party.
9
@Oliver And the DNC will not listen, again, they only care about the big donors. They would rather lose to Trump than nominate a true progressive.
2
@Oliver. How many Bernie supporters are in the swing states? It sounds as though their numbers are low.
1
How undemocratic. Taking their ball and going home (again) would be very counterproductive.
3
All I can say is that I have a Ph.D. and excellent verbal skills. Still I found this article very convuluted and difficult to understand. Also it is way too early to really give too much merit to it given tthat we have a president who will probably be impeached and it is far from certain who will be the democratic nominee. For all these people who are still really not decided how they will vote there are just to many moving parts at this point to try to predict what they might decide. Perhaps this is why the article is so difficult to understand and convulted.
14
@BC
I find all these polling articles convoluted, but statistics were never my strong suit. But after 2016, who trust polls anyway?
It's strange. It's almost like the Democratic Party has shifted from one extreme to another with the same results. In 2016 the democratic candidate was a centrist (some would argue right of center) leaning to the left juuuust a bit. This slight swing to the left was to accomodate the really strong support for Bernie Sanders. The Dems lost a lot of votes because the Sanders supporters were disenfranchised and voted for other candidates. Many voted for the Green Party candidate. Now here we sit looking at potentially nominating a more left wing candidate due to the lack of energy attached to Biden even though, according to polls, he would appeal more to the center and be more competitive in the general election. Due to the lovely electoral college Democrats can't just vote conscience. You have to think about who will win in the general election. Plans and issues matter a lot, but in the end you have to win the election if you want to affect change or it's 4 more years of minority rule. Don't blame the media, research the candidates and figure this out.
9
@ Laura
Very well stated. I might add that Republicans vote for who they think can win. They discovered that their ”conscience” votes in their primary elections didn’t bear fruit in the general. So they voted for a guy they would not invite to dinner.
4
I was in Europe over the summer and I talked with people from Austria, France, Switzerland, and the UK. To be honest they aren’t absolutely thrilled with their healthcare but they all said they like it and could not imagine not having a choice.
Think about it: all or most of the other developed countries with state health insurance have private insurance for those who don’t want government insurance.
The Democrats must not forget that they won the House with a populist agenda that did no go as far as Medicare for all or border decriminalization. Voters want to fix the healthcare problem and the immigration problems, but they don’t want to throw the baby out with the bath water.
10
@Oliver The only way to fix health care is to eliminate the greed of private insurance, period. If rich people still want to be robbed than offer them that choice.
1
Anyone who thinks only policies but not racism matters in a leader needs to get a few more years under their belts, get off the computer programming, and try to actually change a culture in a business or group.
It is extremely difficult thing to do. The poison spewed today will infect us for decades to come, and just saying "get over it" will not solve the issue.
Integrity, decency and having lived a life of contribution to your community matters way more than your 401K. Everybody learns that, even if it's on your death bead drawing your last breath.
8
Used to think the percentage of know nothing Americans was around 30%, sad to say but that percentage is probably far higher.
26
@MDM Well, try to imagine the 'average' voter. Now realize half the population knows less than that person by default.
2
"To catch a lion first tether the goat"
Persuade all you want. If they don't show up to vote you've done nothing.
Love it or hate it this is drive through country. if it ain't as easy as ordering a Big Mac then they are unlikely to show up.
The task for the democrats is daunting. It s a two pronger really. First you got to de-motivate the leaning GOP folks on the fence second you go to motivate not just persuade the game changers. So they are willing to endure the inconvenience of going to the polls.
Easier said than done.
And until voting becomes a real right - Automatic registration, early voting, No Tuesday and paid time to go vote" folks who count won't show up to effect the change.
5
So you advocate voter suppression? Not a good thing ever.
@Margo Quite the contrary as plainly written in the last paragraph which I keep re reading for fear of miscommunication . Let me know how it can be misconstrued.
@Jose and Margo
I didn’t read your comment as advocating any kind of voter suppression. I think you were clearly listing the obstacles the Dems face in motivating voters and then making the case for an easier way to get voters to the polls.
Reading about this swing voters or the diehard Trump voters the Times profiles on an almost weekly basis brings to mind a quote by H. L. Menchen. “If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them missionaries for dinner.”
It seems like no matter what the Democrats say or do these voters want something more that pleases just them. Nor do Trump’s destructive environmental policies, corruption, racism, lying or ignorance seem to matter to these voters either.They hate the idea of medicare for all, so they’d rather vote for Trump, who wants to destroy the ACA and take us back to the time when people with pre existing conditions can get any insurance at all or only at astronomical rates. They claim to love Trump because he’s pro life, but don’t care if his environmental policies will poison the air their children will breathe and water they will drink. The absurd contradictions are endless. But the point is, like the politicians in Menchen’s quote, these candidates will have to deeply compromise their own principals or what the majority, the non cannibals, want to please the few. I don’t think it’s worth it.
Instead focus on getting the Democratic base out in force in the next election. Even in these swing states, there are bastions of blue voters. Focus on them. Focus on us. We are the ones who will help the Democrats win and end the Nighmare if the Trump presidency if we all vote.
22
I want to agree, but thanks to the Electoral College and the combined power of right wing mass media and evangelical Christianity in rural America, just pushing on Democrats to vote, despite the numerical advantage, does not clinch an election. The Democrats are again fielding a collection of wonks and weirdos when to really have a shot at winning what they need is a celebrity - not an egotistical billionaire pushing an agenda, but someone who has a well-recognized (if possibly created) persona and an unmistakable face - someone who can be sold to the waffling electorate as Trump was sold. As 16 proved, experience and deep thought are not required to move the sliver of fence straddling voters. Imagine somebody like George Clooney or Brad Pitt... or even a famous sports figure - now that’s pre-awareness on a level political campaigns cannot afford. Just make sure the candidate is tall and male.
You'll note of the 15% of "persuadable" voters break 28% for Trump, 16% for Democrats leaving the so-call 9% truly persuadable. The large majority of the "persuadable" voters, almost 2 to 1, go for Trump push comes to shove. I believe that that the 9% "truly persuadable" are nothing of the sort and are already in the Trump camp but don't want to say so. Just like in the last polls.
If Trump's antics and actions haven't persuaded them that Trump is wholly unworthy to be president and is an existential threat to our country, rules, and laws than nothing will and they are just holding out, not wanting to commit.
14
Or, they’re just not interested in politics or so consumed with getting through the day and the issues of their lives that whoever sits in the Oval is a distant and even mythical idea, unrelated to their lives and concerns. If they vote at all, is it worth investing money in the small fraction that may break one way or the other, perhaps for no reason at all, or just based on what happened in the hours prior to the election.
I think this election will prove that we need to break the US into two nations, and sooner rather than later. We'll then see the stark differences between people who live cooperatively and those who live as islands. For me, the alternative is retiring early and moving to a civilized nation in the EU.
18
@Beanie
and having SS deposited every month !?
@thostageo
Yes, along with my pension. I paid into the SS system and I expect to be paid back.
@Beanie
In which one would we find the currently Blue State Boomers who vote Democratic but who have - we have been told - 'gleefully' ruined the lives of millennials?
With such a small percent of voters undecided the election really depends on mobilization and new voters. That's why Sanders and Warren have a real shot. They have the energy behind them.
8
@Jerry Harris
But clearly given electoral voting they need to especially mobilize their base in these swing states, and maybe include others like Ohio.
With all the inputs, including foreign lie-infested influence like what we may expect from Russia, and Koch-funded ads, and those from Wall Street if it's Warren, this is going to be a crazy election cycle, with megabucks per undecided voter spent on lies, lies, lies, fears, fears, fears.
On top of trump's lies of course.
The last three paragraphs of this article—on the low turnout rates of persuadable voters, and the classic dilemma of persuading them versus motivating nonvoters among the base—seem to me the most important. They could be the first paragraph of the article I’d really love to see written: one comparing potential numbers of the two groups that could decide the election in the swing states. Let’s call the first group “persuadable likely voters” and the second “motivatable base nonvoters.” If choosing the democratic candidate is a choice between these two groups, give us both sides of the data we need to make that choice. And give it to us again a few times as the early primaries unfold and provide more data.
7
I am voting for Elizabeth Warren as she would make the best President by far. At least she is forthright, honest, has the guts to put forth a health plan proposal (and many other proposals on various important issues), while all the other Democratic candidates health plans are not as useful as they will guarantee that healthcare will be provided to the rich and healthy, leaving the really sick as destitute as they are now. Trump's and the Republican proposal are missing in action of course, as their only proposal are a re-hash of worn ideas that have left 43 million people uninsured, 43,000 deaths a year due to treatable diseases, and enrich the health industry, and business corporations. Most health care proposals except Warren's are nothing, other than criticism of Warren's plan, which will get us nowhere. I don't want to hear anybody's plan after they get elected and start making it up as Trump did with no advances made yet in 3 years of his Presidency.
I want a President who has ideas, and is brave and honest enough to promote them ahead of the election.
Folks, the United States is in for a rude awakening with global warming and we need someone like Elizabeth Warren to sail these turbulent seas which lie ahead of us.
5
A democracy is only as good as the discernment of the electorate.......and ours stinks on ice.
14
@Time Space
Count me a big NO on voting for her, along with most of my family and a wide circle of friends.
Except for the indelible trumpers, no one rreally wants either Trump or the democratic candidates running. They want two people who have not showed up, and probably won’t.
10
For the Democrats, half of us vote with our hearts and half with our heads. And that’s why we’re so splintered ( and to our credit, we’re so open minded).
Republicans vote with their heads.
And that’s why they end up with Trump, a guy they don’t like but a guy who can win.
7
I’m a very well educated white male, and I voted for Obama twice. I also voted for Clinton, though I threw up afterwards.
Since Trump’s election, I’ve learned that being a white male I am the enemy. I’ve lost track of the number of articles in this newspaper making that point. Everything that’s wrong, unequal, unfair; it’s all my fault. There’s no reason to fight it, and certainly no reason to argue about it because, I’ve learned, there is no other way forward. If one has the audacity to disagree with the idea of the evil white man, that he’s been painted with too broad a brush, one is ostracized. I’ve seen it happen to colleagues, and it’s happened to me too without even my getting to push back about it because it happens so quietly; the usual example is when employers hire the not very qualified black woman because she makes the organization appear to be more woke.
So, as it’s been made very clear again and again, I’m the irredeemable enemy and so I will be voting for Trump.
I live in NYC, so my vote doesn’t count, but I’m willing to bet those swing states are filled with voters who feel as I do. I hope they all vote.
17
Well, at least it is clear that you are voting for Trump out of anger. Anger that you, as a white man, are misunderstood and unfairly treated (let that sentence sink in for a second) and that Trump can satisfy your fragile ego by sticking it to women and minorities. What I would just like to point out is that that black woman whom you surely thought stole some white man’s job is still going to be paid a lot less than her male counterpart (and even less if he happens to be white) so America is still serving you just fine. Racism and misogyny are still alive and well.
8
@Brooklyn you are not helping your case. I'm not misunderstood, I'm simply being unfairly treated and I'm not going to take it anymore. When a black woman says she's being treated unfairly people like you jump to help her out of your sense of equality and justice, but when a white man is being treated unfairly we are supposed to look to history and say well at least I'm not a black woman. Keep the insults coming. Yours is a losing argument.
3
@P.S. What an odd perspective. White men own the majority of business and have all the top positions in corporate America, and politics.
If you are reading articles and believing that you are a villain and have decided to embody that by supporting a man who supports white nationalists, then that's simply who you are, no matter who you voted for in the past.
Regarding employers hiring to show they are "woke" you are implying that minority is not qualified. In other words, only white males are qualified for those jobs. Women by and large are better credentialed than men and still earn less.
Why? Because you poor, villainous white men are still in charge and make sure minorities are not hired and definitely make less.
5
It is a just a shame that we actually can talk about a handful of people who will determine the results of the national election. This country is far from a democracy. We need to have one vote for one adult human citizen in the United States. Everyone should be mandated to vote, with penalties for not voting (like a hundred bucks, nothing huge). Every person who votes should be made to read about the issues so they know what they are voting for. Every person should be able to vote - securely - on the internet. Nobody should have to miss work to vote for goodness sake. There are far too few Representatives in the House of course. And gerrymandering should be outlawed. It’s a shame that we have to bend over backward - with the likes of ‘The National Popular Vote’ initiative - to balance this ridiculous form of government we have. It may have worked 200 years ago for a few men who wanted to make money over the treasure of our national forests while demonstrating that women and slaves didn’t matter, but it sure does not work in 2019. I am actually someone who believes in and loves the United States, but we really, really need to get some work done to take us into the future safely.
406
@CACL I totally agree. Think of a jury trial at the end of which only one juror decides, regardless of the majority. This is exactly how the crazy American electoral system works. The vote of every single citizen no longer counts (in disregard of the fundamental democratic principle of "one is worth one”). What really counts is the vote of the citizens in the swing states. In this way, some states (and some citizens) are elevated above others.
I think this is not the right way to run a democracy.
77
@CACL That's an interesting viewpoint, in Brazil where i spent summers last decade everyone is required to vote. Difficulties are many in enforcing this though.
I also agree that is article is the best illustration i've seen lately of the absurdity of the electoral college being nothing but a long outdated system for political realities some 200 years ago, and now another one of a bag of tools for rich Republicans maintaining power by underhanded means.
30
@CACL You nailed the exact issue.
POPULAR VOTES!
Make every vote count!
26
The true takeaway here is not who the Democratic candidate should be or what issues they should press to win the swing states. The true takeaway is that the Democratic candidate - whoever she or he is - had better show up in the swing states and make their best case there. Please note that 8% of the swing state voters would, but might not, vote for a Democrat but not a Republican. Together with the 15% of voters who say they could go either way, that's a total of 23% - nearly a quarter of the whole electorate. And then there's the many who seldom vote or never have voted who could be moved to do so. Even if you think Dems should focus on getting out qualified, but not previously voting, voters, certainly Dems should also be actively seeking the votes of those who have a history of voting and are open to progressive policies.
8
"these persuadable voters in battleground states have a favorable view of Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, but not of Elizabeth Warren..."
So it's not about policy at all.
14
@Hypatia. No, unfortunately. In those states it’s about misogyny. Too many men there are simply not willing to vote for a woman president, perhaps not in our lifetime. That certainly doesn’t mean Biden and Sanders have an equal shot there. As much as I’d like to see a Warren/Buttigieg ticket, I’m afraid a Biden/Buttigieg ticket may be the only way to beat Trump in the swing states.
Pity it can’t be a Franken/Schiff ticket. Wouldn’t you love to see Franken debate Trump?
1
i do not believe your polling on michigan was at all accurate. it deviates widely in representing warren as 6 points below trump. look at realclearpolitics or any of our local state polls, like epicmri, and they show warren ahead of trump. i would be greatly surprised to so this state, now, go for trump against ANY democratic candidate. when the voters of detroit turn out, as they did not in the last election, you will see the change.
3
@ken harrow
I hope you’re right about our state but I worry about the continued support for Trump in Macomb county among the auto workers. The new FCA plant will be operational before the election and TRump will take every bit of credit for those 1,000 good paying jobs even though it’s a fact he had nothing to do with that build. As for Detroit turn out, if Mayor Pete is on the ticket, blacks won’t be voting, they’ll stay home like they did for Clinton. I worked on Clinton’s campaign and still remember every minute of Election Day and the dread that took over as the results came in. The thought of going through that again is already making me panic.
Think of a jury trial at the end of which only one juror decides, regardless of the majority. This is exactly how the crazy American electoral system works. The vote of every single citizen no longer counts (according to the democrat rule of “one is worth one”). What really counts is the vote of the citizens in the swing states. In this way, some states (and some citizens) are elevated above others.
Do you think this is the right way to run a democracy?
4
@Alfredo
That’s actually how juries work. If one juror disagrees, it’s a mistrial.
It is really shocking how many commenters are advocating for restricting voting rights for these "uneducated" voters who dare to withhold their opinion from a survey. America's democracy thrives on more participation, not less. In different times, the same exact logic would have been used to keep black people, women, muslims, etc. from voting as well.
Besides, the typical Trump voter feels powerless, and thats what Trump played on to get their vote. Thats why the "Drain the swamp" slogan was so effective. And we would solve that by taking even more power from them?
2
First of all, these aren’t persuadable voters. These are people who don’t want to admit aloud that they are, in fact, going to vote for a man who daily thwarts our Constitution, insults our country’s citizens, and makes a mockery of the office. They are embarrassed and they should be. But make no mistake, anyone who says they might vote for Trump has it in them to vote for Trump, and that’s exactly what they’ll do.
Secondly, what’s with the support for Sanders but not Warren based on healthcare? He wrote the bill! Gee, I wonder if there’s some other reason these mostly male voters won’t vote for Warren?
The only path to defeating Trump is a massive get out the vote campaign amongst younger and new voters. Let’s not waste time persuading the unpersuadable.
55
@Jess
I’m female and I’m not voting for Warren. Or Sanders.
I am fairly confident that these voters are overwhelmingly non people of color whose lot in life will not change much regardless of which party is in power. They are the ones who have the luxury of choosing a president like you would chose an ice cream flavor. Not much change in your life regardless of which flavor you choose.
5
Whenever I need my faith in humans restored, I ponder the existence of such people, which explains why I have no faith in humans.
8
My dog is not undecided; even he can figure this out!
I find it interesting that Mr. Basart, a 28-year-old latino computer science Ph.D candidate likes Trump's "policies." Which policies, exactly? As a computer science student, I can't imagine he's on board with the repeal of net neutrality. As a 28-year-old, I would think he would be more concerned about Trump's polluting the country and denying climate change to disastrous effects. As a Latino (citizen or not) I would be worried. Trump started with attacks on foreigners visiting the US. Then to asylum seekers, then to green-card holders and permanent residents and now to some naturalized citizens. Is it really such a leap to believe that given a cecond term, this will escalate to citizens of certain ethnicities?
23
The article saves perhaps the most important factor for the end: a large fraction of these persuadable voters didn't vote in the last two elections and are the most likely to stay home on election day. That's why the candidates don't pay them much mind.
6
We may find these voters annoying and be baffled by how they could be undecided in these hyper-partisan times, but these “truly persuadable” voters in swing states are the very people who will decide who the next President is. This sentence really jumped out at me. “They support Mr. Biden over the president, 38 percent to 27 percent, but prefer the president over Ms. Warren, 37 to 20.” That’s a big difference and one that Democrats who want to defeat Trump should take note of. Makes me wonder whether the Democrats should be running on a platform of sweeping transformational change and a message of hyper-assertive partisan combat (all about the fighting). These numbers suggest to me that a more inclusive message that espouses somewhat more incremental change is a more likely winning formula.
6
When people feel judged by the person asking or embarrassed by the person they are in fact voting for, that voter will report that they are undecided.
That's the problem with polls. They are inaccurate. Ask anyone who voted in the last presidential election.
9
I see a very possible scenario of a deadlocked Democratic convention:
Buttigieg wins Iowa. Sanders wins NH. Biden wins SC, and Warren wins Nevada. And then no clear favorite by the time of the convention.
In that case, someone would have to step in and save the party, nay the country( world?) and allow themselves to be drafted.
Michele Obama would be perfect. She is the most admired woman in the world and would certainly consolidate all the different factions.
And Trump was not a lawmaker when he ran for president, so that’s not a prerequisite anymore, and actually it has practically become a demerit.
But I doubt she would do it. So Stacey Abrams or Michael Bloomberg would have to jump in and save the world.
6
@Oliver
I’d vote for John Kerry.
3
At this juncture, if you look at 45's administration and policies and agree with them, you are not just being conned, you are siding with a culture of death and hatred over one of abundance and care. Period.
17
After reading almost every comment from New York Times readers on this subject, I noticed that only one or two even mentioned the economy. I realize for liberals this is the third rail. Record breaking employment numbers Wages rising and anyone that has a 401(k) or a pension has to be thrilled. Liberals do not want to talk about the economy and I understand why. But as James Carville said many years ago “it’s the economy stupid“
7
No one can have everything they want however if the Constitution doesnt matter, democracy doesnt matter, justice doesnt matter, being corrupt matters, living with a liar for president matters, no real health care for your stage four cancer doesnt matter, no health care services for women doesnt matter, no salary increases doesnt matter just make sure rich people who dont care whether you live or die it matters that they can rig the system. Well then you are living in the alternate universe of bigotry and hate.
For freedom loving people who want to be American vs a cult following for a dictator. Then you need to be out in force registering people, addressing gerrymandering, ensuring that everyone has a ride to the polls. Vote for this country and unless you have been on another planet, remember Facebook, Trump they are not your friend but they are using you and this country to enhance their own profits and laughing at you while they do it.
9
The election hinges on “they”?
“..they say political correctness has gone too far.
They say academics and journalists look down on people like them, and
they agree that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against minorities.”
What future do “they” want for our nation? I’d like a future that values mutual respect and education.
5
I don't believe there are so many voters undecided; I believe they don't want to say who they are already decided for (Trump) as it can look bad. It happened in 2016; all the polls were for Hillary..., It happens here in France; 'I don't know yet, oh I will definitely not vote for the right wing candidate', all the while spewing racist comments. The press loves to court 'undecideds' and they love to be courted, lets not be fooled.
13
This article is basically making the point that it's really really hard to tailor a campaign to target specific voters in specific states, and when you throw in the unreliability that has to be a given when you ask someone who hasn't made their mind up about Donald Trump yet.
I know NYT writers absolutely love coming up with reasons for Dems to tack right, but what this article says to me is that none of these people is worth chasing. And if they are, the best way to do so is stop dancing around issues like single-payer, and spend the next year vigorously arguing for those policies on their merits.
Take the compsci grad student, who considers Warren "too far to the left," but would presumably consider a Biden. I know it's hard to convince people to change their minds once they're made up (and quoted in the NYT), but if it's going to happen, the way to do it is to argue for the policies on their merits.
We know Fox News is going to accuse the Dem nominee, whoever she or he is, of being a "closet marxist committed to the destruction of the free enterprise system this country was built upon" or whatever. Rather than try to convince these people they're not "far left," I suspect the smart path is to convince them maybe "far left" isn't actually so bad.
3
I just don't get it. How can anyone be against free college education or good healthcare? I guess being born in Europe I will never get it, especially why most white people are against it. It is ludicrous. I am a white grandmother very aware of free healthcare that is a combination of union based, company based and government healthcare in most of the EU countries. They love their healthcare. It works well there and it could work well here. Sadly our white citizens are brainwashed by ads from powerful very rich insurance and pharmaceutical companies and the NRA.
I have been to a Dr in Germany via emergency. I paid 50Euros for the visit and hearing tests and 10euro for the medication. I had no insurance in that country. People get a minimum wage and make a decent not overly great salary. But then the citizens of the EU have free healthcare, mostly free eye care and dental, free University, if you pass admission tests. It is not Utopia. It is truly sad how our citizens are so afraid. I see why, when watching FOX news and not listening to alternative fact based news. When listening to his lies on a daily basis without any feeling of guilt by this sick man in the white house. I am not surprised at all. I will watch FOX news for 10 minutes and turn it of because they are so clearly not reporting facts.
11
@Nob "Free university if you pass admission tests". This is the key. Free for the best students only. (The best students in US can get scholarships!). In the US, education is open to a range of students, returning students, older students, part-time students, and veterans, among others. I think that the US education system is the envy of the world. It is not free, but neither is free for all the restrictive EU system. We also have various grants and loans available to students .
4
@V. G. The EU isn't one country and university level education access requirements differs from country to country.
They oppose free college 55 to 41? Wow, who is opposed to free education? That's just weird.
4
The uneducated. I’ve heard parents say to their grown children, “That’s your education talking” when the children disagree with their backward beliefs. As if education were some kind of curse!
1
The 32% for Trump explains his base and is unchanged. What I see is undecided voters who have not made the attempt to get any facts on both parties and are driven by their particular source of news. The "They ......agree that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against minorities. " is so demonstrably false as to be laughable. They appear to live in a fact free world filled with anecdotes, half truths and outright falsehoods. Informed voter has become the oxymoron of American politics. Here in flyover country, the farmers will vote for Trump all the way to bankruptcy court. Medicare for all is a complete non starter as is free college. The Democratic candidates seem to be making every attempt to alienate the heartland once again.
2
I was devastated that Mrs. Clinton, a smart, moderate, experienced candidate lost to what was so obviously a criminal in Trump.
I'm devastated that the same crazy left wing members of the Democratic Party who pretended that Bernie Sanders actually won the Democratic nomination will help Trump get elected again.
Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama were both moderate Democrats. The both served two terms.
Had Hillary Clinton won the Presidency we would have a completely different court system, a different AG. We would be in the Paris agreement and the Iran nuclear agreement along with signing on to TPP. Public lands wouldn't have been given away for a song. The ACA would have been strengthened. We would be further along on reducing carbon emissions.
The left wing of the Democratic party acts as if nothing will change without throwing a wrecking ball to everything. They are wrong and they need to be repudiated by Democrats in Iowa, New Hampshire and SC before it's too late.
14
There is no such thing as a swing voter in the Trump era. There are, however, wildly uninformed voters who still consider Trump a viable candidate. And there are the secret Trump voters who would never say in public what they endorse at the ballot box: they support the terrible antics of our current President but know it is a completely abhorrent position to hold in public.
9
There is a wise person posting earlier.
"Takes in everything, tends to listen to all discussions in groups and will voice their opinion but not so aggressively. If anything, we may hear us say "wake up folks"!
Not ALL Swing voters are younger. This 70 white male is a swing voter. I vote for the best candidate running regardless of party affiliations and have since gaining the right to vote.
I will continue to do so.
But, the current front runners in the Democratic Party scare me. I believe younger people have some great ideas but the media wants the front runners they have now so that is what the Democrats who vote in primaries will have.
VP Biden, be the Senior Statesman. You will not get my vote.
Senator Sanders, you did well stirring the pot but you need to be in the Senate where you have a chance of helping to affect change.
Senator Warren, same. You would have a difficult time winning because too many people listen to the media side that sells news to make news, not the facts. Stay in the Senate and affect change.
Find me someone who will inspire me to become active today. Do not repeat 2016 where the media drove good candidates off to have this fabulous news cycle where they reached more people than ever before. Please pick someone who can win my vote, the swing Independent voter.
I do not want to go into the Voting Booth in 2020 and vote DOWN Ballot again, skipping the President choice because I have to choose between two very unethical people AGAIN.
Please.
2
There’s unethical, which describes all but a very few politicians, then there’s criminal, which describes Trump, along with spineless, which describes pretty much every Republican Senator. Voting for no one is voting for the status quo, in this case, Trump. So be glad you’re a white male without too many years left. You won’t have to see the suffering you’ve caused among your descendants.
I think we are dealing with a lot of sexists who will find a reason not to vote for Warren no matter what her policies (though her policies likely are too extreme). But, not voting for Warren leaves a possible enthusiasm gap with a Biden. I think Sanders is equally hopeless as he would fairly be categorized as a socialist (not to mention his health). That leaves Buttigieg in the front of the pack. I think it would be incredibly short-sighted to believe that homophobia would not play a role. So, basically all the exciting, younger candidates who are electable have been left out of the media's narrative of this primary election to the peril of us all. I'm talking about Klobuchar, Booker, Bennett, Bullock, Ryan. I don't know who to blame for all of this - Are there forces beyond the media? The race being run on more of a national stage? - but it is a shame.
2
This is why the impeachment proceedings are so crucial, and also why the DA of NY’s (I just wish it wasn’t Cy Vance) Investigation is so important.
People who haven’t boarded “the Trump train” need to know how corrupt he really is. They need to know that yes, he broke laws, and that’s not okay.
That’s how undecided voters flip. Any undecided voter that doesn’t flip Democrat after seeing the amount of evidence of Trump’s criminality was never undecided.
5
Buttigieg should have been included in this and should be included going forward. it's hard not to see his omission as intentional.
6
How are folks to already be decided when the Dems haven’t even decided yet. One can be against another four years of Trump but similarly not for Kamala or Biden or Mayor Pete. These people aren’t “undecided.” Maybe they’ve decided they’re against the status quo that is working fir them. Maybe they’ll decide on a write in if the Dems put up another status quo centrist.
So these are the folks who are going to ruin the world. Noted.
39
It's really time to restore the literacy test.
If you believe the earth is flat, no vote for you.
If you believe Trump isn't a buffoon, no voting today, thanks for playing.
But seriously, there has to be some systematic way to combat disinformation.
18
You would think content on air would be subject to facts and not propaganda. Smart educators know if you repeat a lie often enough it becomes the truth. This is dangerous. There are many zealots out there using alternate facts to prop up what they see as the truth. Hard to believe tv and radio for the public doesn’t have to abide in truth.
There may be; just don’t ask Mark Zuckerberg for help!
“For now, these persuadable voters in battleground states have a favorable view of Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, but not of Elizabeth Warren, our polling shows.”
That’s because we are still a very misogynistic country. How else could you interpret one liking Sanders but not Warren?
Oh, you say AOC likes Sanders, too? Well misogyny has no gender.
281
Warren was a Republican through Reagan. Sanders wasn’t. Warren has not spoken out against Israel’s treatment if the Palestinian people. Sanders has. They are different people and they have different ideals. To people with actual politics these differences can matter.
36
It's because Sanders and Warren are actually very different candidates. Sanders is willing to rally against the Democratic party establishment in a way Warren isn't. He also has an unblemished 40-year track record of fighting for the same things he is today. The reason AOC, Ilhan Omar, and others' support him is because he's more trustworthy to actually fight for the reforms he claims to fight for. Her Medicare for All proposal, wealth tax, and other policies differ from Bernie's in significant ways, taking a more paternalistic, technocratic flavor that a lot of voters simply aren't buying. Add to that his support for cancelling all student loan debt, ending American imperialism and endless wars, and other centerpiece progressive policies that Warren is shaky or nowhere on. Warren has courted wealthy, educated white liberals, whereas Bernie has a far younger, far more diverse base. It's incredibly damaging to chalk their differences down to misogyny, and it reveals a narrow, uninformed view of these candidates and what they actually stand for. If you lean progressive, what reason is there to vote for Warren, when Bernie has far more consistency and a stronger progressive agenda? If you vote according to ideology, Bernie is the clear progressive and anti-corruption choice. I would love to see a woman president in my lifetime, but actual policy matters first. Millions can't afford voting for vanity identity candidates when their very lives and livelihoods are in the balance.
26
Oh yeah, that’s the only possible reason. Misogyny. There is no other possible reason at all. You got it.
57
The incredulous responses in these comments only reinforce the point of the article. I, like most Americans, find Trump repugnant and will not vote for him. Nor, however, will I ever vote for Bernie Sanders, and I have my doubts about Warren. It’s incumbent upon the Democrats to nominate a credible candidate that speaks to the majority of American voters, instead of simply insulting and denouncing those who won’t hop on the train of radicalism without hesitation.
7
Could not agree more
1
There is a common theme that runs through all of these so called persuadable voters. It's screaming at us and the Democratic party is not listening.
These people keep saying that they are sick of political correctness. They also say that they love Trump for "telling it like it is." Trump is rude, crude, and low class. These people confuse this behavior as being sincere and honest with oneself. They view polished, sophisticated behavior as being phoney and untrustworthy. Trump is therefore believable, even though he lies constantly while Michael Schiff is a phoney liar even though he is backed up by the facts.
They have been exploited by big business their entire lives, primarily resource extraction and agribusinesses. They then claim that they have been left behind. Here this.
PBS just ran an excellent series on country music. It got going back in the 30's and a major theme of the songs were about being left behind. These folks have been the left behind since the civil war, if not sooner. Look to resource extraction and sharecropping.
They still are. They value individualism and reject social programs. Hence they reject Warren as a socialist. They would rather stay left behind than sign on to socialism. They want to be able to choose, even if all the choices are bad ones.
They view immigration, secularism, and feminism as a direct threat to their very existence. They want to preserve their white male dominated, Christian world. Trump is their hero.
16
@Bruce Rozenblit
So basically we’re doomed ?
@Bruce Rozenblit
Astute. They've been left behind, are still behind, and concede a future of being behind. I combine this with another commenter's lament concerning the absence of the Golden Rule and conclude that these people have had plenty 'done unto them' and they want to make certain that it is done unto others - in fact, The Others - as well.
1
A democracy is only as good as its voters.
Take that as you will.
5
There you have it.
The election will be determined by low – turnout, white, male non college-educated persuadable voters living in swing states who can’t figure out whether or not to re-elect Trump.
The rest of us do not matter
Perhaps the reason there was no outsize mass of by low – turnout, white, male, non- college educated, persuadable voters who voted for Mr. Trump among the undecided in the Times/Siena poll (of only swing states) is they could not decide whether to answer the phone.
One can only hope that their votes are cancelled out by high – turnout, non- white, female, college educated, voters who didn’t vote for Mr. Trump.
Also one can only hope that Mr. Nate Cohn can learn a bit more about statistical MoE when interpreting poll results, and add error bars when displaying polling data.
4
The lure of the demagogue is strong. People do not always make the right decision. When left with an identity/social engineering obsessed Neo con like Hillary, they held their nose and voted for Trump.
If the democrats don't nominate a moderate progress non identity obsessed, non neo con , Trump will be re elected.
Learn from history or forever be condemned to repeat its worst mistakes.
4
This is centrist nation. Period.
A McGovern level catastrophe can still happen to the Democrats if we nominate a left wing (or perceived left wing!) candidate.
We may not like it. But reality is reality.
We MUST get rid of Trump.
10
I'm tired of my voice not counting. Tired of a few "swing states" deciding who is president. Tired of rural minorities having outsized representation.
Abolish the electoral college now.
123
Jim, this same country couldn’t even embrace or accept the metric system and your suggestion to to abolish the electoral college, “now”?
It will take a constitutional amendment to do so, and I’m not seeing 38 states relinquish their voting input so that CA and NY can choose the President.
10
It is American to have one person one vote. This is so reasonable it should be understood.!
4
@Jim New York you actually mean this: my ideas and morals are correct and I’m willing to say this in the form of intolerance to anyone outside nyc that votes or thinks differently than me. Yup that’s you towing the line of fascism and living in the nyc bubble.
5
Someone explain to me what policies that Donald Trump has mandated that are good? Tell me the policies that have been thoroughly reasoned out, with consequences determined, and costs, both in the near term and long term, accounted for before they have been implemented. Tell me the policies that serve the greatest good to the greatest number of people and not just special interests or the ultra wealthy. Explain to me the policies that do not socialize the costs and privatize the profits. Tell me which policies do not corrupt our institutions, or make liars out of our appointed political officials. Tell me which policies that Trump has mandated that have given the Republican party moral direction, honesty, and the ability to stand up for the United States of America and not their own political careers and plush jobs.
You can not.
To pretend that this man is worthy of the office is self delusion on a criminal scale, akin to what happened in Germany in the 1930s.
You do not want to see socialized, single payer, Medicare for all? Register as a Democrat and let your voices be heard in the primary. Help pick someone that can actually end the hideous nightmare that we find ourselves in now.
9
And how about a profile of likely Democratic voters who need some extra motivation or a few hours off of work to turn out? They exist too and they are probably even more important and numerous than the “swing” voters. Don’t forget that Indiana voted for Obama in 2008. That wasn’t because of “swing” voters — it was because a whole bunch of Democratic voters who don’t usually vote turned out for him (partly because of campaign efforts in the area). Let’s focus more on turning out likely Democratic voters in Milwaukee and Detroit and less on appealing to these “swing” voters with weak policies that won’t solve our country’s problems.
9
It’s outrageous that our system gives these disengaged people with incoherent ideas such disproportionate power. This is why we need rank choice voting.
21
@Ben I agree!
I would assume that at least 10% of all people surveyed (not just the "swing voters" were not honest with the interviewer. In today's hyper partisan environment many people are very reluctant to disclose what they believe is not consistent with the "majority" view.
The one true take away here is that Warren' health care plan (or anything similar) is a poison pill for the Democrats. And that means that the only candidates in the top four who have a shot at getting the swing voters are Biden and Buttigieg (or, as some cynics would say, the man whose time has passed and the man whose time has not yet come).
158
@John Graybeard Don't forget Amy! She made a big splash in Philadelphia this week and I believe her national polls numbers will go up during her Blue Wall tour going on right now.
32
@John Graybeard Don't forget Amy!
11
@John Graybeard - The only reason I left Amy out was that she wasn't in the top four.
3
I agree the unicorn voter exists. I just don't think there are enough of them to decide the election. Pursuing persuadable voters arguably has merit from a Democratic perspective. However, I think Democrats are better served registering and turning out 18-25 year old voters. There are more teenagers than there are unicorns. Stop chasing the mythical beast and focus on the future. That's how Democrats win elections.
492
@Andy Uh, like they did in 2016? Face facts Jack, I mean Andy. Dems need to run anyone but Warren...
10
@Andy So if Biden is selected, young voters will stay home and if Sanders is selected the older voters will stay home? The future, if I understand your post is select what the young people want, even if unelectable in the 2020 election.
4
@Andy
YES YES YES. The young are our hope.
Boomer Presidents have been great disappointments. Bill Clinton, GW Bush and now Trump - bad, worse and THE WORST EVER.
Get them all off the stage - there are good candidates in the next generations ready to take over - Amy Kobachar, Mike Bennet and Mayor Pete are my favorites.
10
"For now, these persuadable voters in battleground states have a favorable view of Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, but not of Elizabeth Warren, our polling shows."
Finally, the unspeakable is spoken.
4
If you’re still struggling with who to vote for next year, get away from the internet and tv for a day or so and do something nice for yourself, something you really enjoy doing but haven’t done in a long time, like build a model airplane or take a walk in the woods.
Most importantly, read a children’s book. I recommend The Little Prince. But just about any favorite kid book will do. Relax. Take your time and carefully absorb the words. Feel what they feel.
Repeat this as often as you like. You will know how to vote next November.
We all need to get over the shock that normal people can and will actually vote for Donald Trump. I would love to live in Elizabeth Warren's America, but the numbers Nate Cohn is showing us tell a compelling story that the country is just not ready for that.
This doesn't mean we should give up our dreams for what this country can be, but the next election is so critical to our survival as a nation that I am going to think long and hard about moving my vote towards the center. I hope others will think about this too.
8
It's so hard to imagine being undecided that I'd be interested to know the sources from which undecided voters get their news. Do they watch/read/listen to both liberal and conservative news outlets and somehow split the difference? Do they avoid the news altogether? I'd love to see an article about this, since I think one of the defining challenges of our time is that different voters are basing their decisions on different "facts." What are these undecided voters hearing or reading that makes them undecided even at a time when our political parties are so diametrically opposed to each other?
38
@--Respectfully I know some of these folks. In rural areas, a number of people just don't pay any attention to politics and don't see how it matters to their lives. Most of them have generally been non-voters, but some were drawn to Trump because they do feel looked down upon by elites and liked the idea of thumbing their nose at those folks. I also think there are people who don't think much about politics but periodically go out and vote for "change," feeling that the current policies aren't helping them so something different is in order. The notion that they should actually try to understand how public policy works, how specific ideas connected to specific candidates would help or hurt them doesn't resonate because they fundamentally believe all politicians are lying and it doesn't really matter what they say they'll do. They just want something "different."
7
@--Respectfully They don’t read period. They care about the price of gas. Say the words politics and they shrug and roll their eyes. The number one achievement of the Republican Party and their highly paid shills like the execrable and intellectually dishonest Tucker Carlson is their great success in dumbing down the electorate.
2
To me, this data put a period on the what needs to be the end of Elizabeth Warren’s candidacy. The swing voters who do actually turn up at the polls will vote for Trump rather than her. Any other scenario depends on massive turnout by folks who don’t usually vote or who have never voted in their lives. And the GOP is doing its dead level best to be sure that significant cohorts in that crowd don’t turn out this time—or aren’t allowed to vote when they do if it’s been years since they voted the last time.
The Dems absolutely, positively have to run a moderate who can capture the votes of the swings and persuadables. And draft a running mate like Stacey Abrams who can rev up the turnout of those who don’t or haven’t voted—assuming they can get around the Republicans standing between them and the polls this time.
9
@Steel Magnolia
Weird how every single election provides a new reason for Dems to move ever further to the right.
Trump is a historically weak incumbent with the distinction of literally never rising above a 50% approval rating, ever. He's only president right now because Republican primary voters refused to buy the conventional wisdom (pushed by lots of New York Times writers we're still expected to take seriously as having some kind of special knowledge that allows them to tell people how they should best vote if they want to win) that a) he'd never get nominated and b) he'd never win in the general.
I humbly suggest Dem primary voters vote for the candidate they'd most like to be President.
2
If Fox News didn't exist, we certainly wouldn't be here today. One man, single handedly brought American democracy to its knees, R. Murdoch.
177
@Eric
Every study of modern journalism shows that Fox News is about as far to the right as the NYT's is to the left.
It is a myth that one is extreme and panders to deplorables and extremists and the other is enlightened with an audience of reasonable mainstream people. They both have a market niche with the goal of making money and, obviously, there is a market for both.
4
@B Care to share links to these studies?
7
One has the mandate to print the facts as best they can and the other has alternative facts presented non stop masquerading as truth. The facts do not support,most of the time, the fox brand is by the way well named.
8
I've said it before but I'll repeat it until I die: if you really can't tell that Donald Trump is neither smart nor honorable, then it's fair to seriously doubt your character and intelligence as well. This is not a political judgment, as I have had many intelligent and decent Republican friends over the years. Trump is so obviously dishonest, corrupt, narcissistic and dim that if he were a fictional character in a book or movie just five years ago, it would be dismissed immediately as ridiculously unbelievable and an unfair depiction of Republicans.
580
@Kevin McKague
Completely agree. The question in (traditional) Republican minds must be "which is worse - 4 more years of MAGA, or vote the other side?" The answer may be clear no mater who is on the other side, or it may depend on the actual Dem candidate - a Repub may consider voting for Biden/Buttigieg/etc. but not for Warren/Sanders.
12
@Kevin McKague
I agree. Trump has long ceased to be someone on whom reasonable minds may differ.
Anyone who supports him at this stage is part of the problem.
45
That’s the attitude that will help us win an election. Tell an undecided how stupid and amoral they are. I’m sure they will totally vote for us now.
5
I can’t imagine the mindset of someone who looks at the current administration and considers voting for four more years of Trump. Open your eyes.
76
Just to open your eyes some people do not like the direction of the Democratic Party; open immigration, Medicare for all including illegals and identity politics. It is a difficult choice but maybe people feel the country is lost either way and they will go down swinging.
4
I find it hard to believe that Trump still retains enough support to make any state competitive. As for his demerits: he has alienated allies and pandered to dictators; he continually defames American citizens and betrays them to foreign powers; he has failed the world on environmental issues; he has gutted administrative agencies; he has endangered women's rights for a generation to come; he has conducted himself shamelessly and with regard for nothing but his own self interest; he has incited violence; he has stoked and inflamed racial and partisan divisions, and he has betrayed his oath of office and abused the office of the presidency. He could easily continue to seize power, with the compliance of the Republican party, refuse to leave office, and inflict still more damage on America and the world. And there are many more accusations that could be made, especially in his personal behavior.
And in the midst of all of this ugliness, what are his pluses? He inherited a recovering economy from President Obama and he appeals to the worst impulses in our country.
How could anyone even consider granting this unworthy object the honor of a second term?
71
These swing voters say they want a democrat who will "find common ground" with Republicans. Do they ask this from the other party? Since Obama's election, Republicans been in an all-out war: divisive scorched earth policies and complete obstruction. They have decided it's politically best to paint Democrats as the enemy of their base. Any "moderate" Democrat attempting to compromise with other side will only get played. See Obamacare, in which he made a sincere attempt to bring in conservative ideas in order to be conciliatory. Meanwhile, he still got zero R votes and the Rs setup a decade-long campaign to undermine the final legislation. I don't see any of the Democratic nominees clearly articulating to voters this contemporary reality and how they will navigate it.
132
@Tim
There's a lot of evidence people say they want things like this when they're asked by pollsters, because it's the "correct" answer, but that it's pretty clearly not actually true. Add to that the fact that a lot of public places and homes in these parts of the country stay glued to Fox News when sports isn't on, and it's easy to see how so many "independents" will end up feeling like it's the Dems fault for not giving them an "acceptable" alternative when they inevitably vote for Trump in 2020.
12
@Shirley0401
Yes. It's a good cover when some one doesn't want to vote for a woman and/or POC.
2
@Tim This.
Shouldn't the title of this article be "Meet The Electoral College Who Might Decide The 2020 Election?"
9
@Moehoward
Hopefully, the Electoral College will soon be a thing of the past. It has tilted two recent elections and BOTH have been disasters.
3
S&P up 40%. Record low unemployment. Solid economic growth. Making good (not great, but ok) on commitment to get out of endless wars. Pushing back strongly on trade violations by China. Exiting trade and and other global agreements that do not fully reflect American values or interests. Normalizing US corporate taxes with rest of world. Opening a dialogue with N. Korea. Etc.
So I fully get it that Trump is a jerk as a person, and there are certainly areas where I strongly disagree with his policies, but he has accomplished a lot of things that will make it hard to accept one of the left-wing Democratic candidates over him.
11
@Steven
S&P is up 27% since Trump took office. Not 40%. However, I think Trump would agree more with your number.
2
@Steven What about loosening toxic waste into streams and food? What about creating the jobs of the future not trying to keep the jobs of dying industries.
4
@Steven The end of endless wars? We now have almost the same number of troops in the region we withdrew from, troops for hire to Saudi Arabia, the dialogue with N. Korea? Surely you jest. Trump's pen pal just fired off more missiles toward Japan. You are wrong about China but let time teach you that. What portion of American's do you feel are benefitting from the S and P rise? Hard for me to believe with what you have listed that you would consider voting for a Democrat left wing or center. You did forget to applaud Mr. Trump's wall, I suppose that with the lack of progress and the obvious flaws it is not a huge campaign plus at this point. Given your list of his accomplishments I for one am very curious as to what policies you could possibly disagree with.
5
I expected Donald Trump to be a bad president, and I have a pretty good imagination for bad things. But I never dreamed he would be this stunningly awful. Terrible policy, personal cruelty and indignity, corruption and criminality. All of it boldly flaunted, every day.
Meanwhile, the world is falling apart. Authoritarians are ascendant, and abusing their minority populations. China is a creepy surveillance state, and looking to export these principles around the world. Russia is a straight up gangster regime, with nukes. Europe is weak and divided. Climate change is marching unchecked. America offers no leadership, in fact, it is an exemplar of the worst behaviors.
The fact that we are here, one year out from the 2020 election, and Donald Trump has not only a chance of winning reelection, but apparently a very strong chance?
I despair of our country and humanity. I really think we are finished.
163
@NFC
If a genie gave me one wish, I’d vaporize our species in a heartbeat. Leave this poor planet to its finer inhabitants.
7
@NFC
Don't despair. We have a chance of turning this country around. Look at the inroads Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have made. It's up to us to use the only weapon we have.
Vote!
10
@NFC I share your despair. What contributes to this despair is the ignorance expressed by the folks interviewed in this article. They seem to have no concept of the common good. The climate crisis is enveloping us now and is only going to get worse in the coming decade or two. Even then they will probably remain in denial about it.That will vaporize our species as Earthling expressed.
8
I will forever wonder what its like to have one's vote be of interest to people.
No one cares about mine.
10
@Bear
Unfortunately, it just reinforces the myth that they're the "real Americans;" the only ones whose thoughts and opinions really matter.
2
I wonder if we actually have a democracy when a few voters can decide who is president?
It is important that we have a major multimedia vote campaign.
Everyone needs to vote!!!
13
@Me but the republicans are working hard in Georgia and other possibly swing states to disqualify especially the young 18-24 year olds to vote, the poor and the blacks. They remove polling stations in colleges and poor areas. Are we heading for a dictatorship? Corporate take over? Oligarchy ? These young people see the future as dark with this President. My grandchildren know more about politics than I and are worried for their future with this man in the white house. But then they don't watch FOX news.They analyze and seek out facts. They are our future and I am proud of them. They are idealistic but want a future for ALL citizens not just the selfish ones.
The problem is judicial nominations. People vote while holding their nose (ears, mouth, heart.....brain) for mostly judicial nominations. The country gets divided into factions, some off which get unified, others that don't. The fact 'Christians' treat Trump like a hallelujah moment speaks volumes as to the extremes and stink some factions will tolerate to get judicial appointments. I have seen alot of political signs but I'll never understand "Thank you Jesus for Donald Trump".
10
Why not appeal to evangelical Christians? Ask them to look beyond the abortion question and consider "what would Jesus do?" His world-changing answer, as we all know, is "do unto others as you would have them do unto you."
Trump's policies of favoring corporations over people (loosening humanitarian regulations on air, water, food, drugs, etc. when they need to be tightened) should turn off Christians and all other civilized people.
If evangelical Christians continue to vote for Trump as a bloc, they are being led astray from their own religion.
16
@betty durso They vote on one issue and he enjoys playing right to that when he talks as he did last night of "babies being ripped from the womb" or killed after they are born. The right have weaponized this issue.
3
@betty durso You are so on target. I was raised as a protestant and am amazed at these christians who focus on one thing. Getting rid of Roe vs Wade, the right of women to decide. Do they know the history of what happened to babies of especially poor women in the old days? There are so many issues that truly will hurt these christians. Rich people have always been able to afford and gotten abortions for their children and mistresses.
I was an A student in a country where religion was paid by government taxes. I thought the US CONSTITUTION SPECIFICALLY states separation of religion and the state. Yet these christians, who came to be born in this supposedly free country are so fanatical. Jesus would shake his head in amazement that I am convinced of.
2
@betty durso
If you think evangelicals are actual Christians (in the sense of seeking to emulate Jesus), you must not know very many of them. There are exceptions, of course, but most evangelicals I know mostly want a justification for feeling superior and rationalizations for their greed and selfishness. In short: the majority of them - at least in my experience - are simply bad people.
The swing voters sit on the pendulum, the strength of the direction of that swing depends on the desire of the media. The energy of the decision from the undecided will probably be controlled by corporations. Follow the money. If Warren and Sanders were the darlings of the election we would undoubtedly be for Democracy that the swing where voters would check that box, instead the swingers will be fed ignorant information about socialism and will vote for Trump. In case you haven't noticed, Trumps tax laws benefit that crooked, fake news, media.
Kind'a catch 22 ?
4
Let's watch Election Day today and see how that goes. I think it may be the best forecaster of the Presidential election.
2
@RVCKath I am going to watch the Governor's race in Kentucky, in particular.
1
I am skeptical of assigning much significance to a poll based on only 569 responses more than one year before an election.
6
Bernie and Warren will ensure Trump's reelection after firing up younger and disenfranchised voters who will not vote for anyone that is not totally progressive.
If Warren is the nominee, voters will hear the words socialist and Pocahontas all day long.Her dogma has limited appeal in a thriving economy and too radical for most voters. Bernie is well past his shelf life but will ensure young voters don't show up for a moderate..
10
Richard Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, wondered in a 2013 article whether this called for drastic measures: “The partisanship of our political branches and the mismatch with our structure of government raise the fundamental question: Is the United States political system so broken that we should change the Constitution to adopt a parliamentary system—either a Westminster system, as in the United Kingdom, or a different form of parliamentary democracy?” His formulation of the question, though, was too blunt. As he noted, any such constitutional change would be nearly impossible, especially given the gridlock that already exists. Thus, a Catch-22: The system is so broken that it needs to be changed, but there is no way to change it because the system is so broken.
One way to out of this paradox might to move toward something closer to a de facto parliamentary system, one that wouldn’t require constitutional change. The Senate could remove barriers like the filibuster, which prevents a simple majority from effecting change. Democrats in the Senate might want to hold on to the filibuster now because it’s a guardrail against Republican policy, but in the long run, the political system would be more effective and accountable. But first, we need to get rid of Trump.
2
The Founding Fathers all recognized that the nation they were cobbling together would only function successfully as long as there existed an informed and engaged electorate, able to discern the best (or at least the most beneficial) policies of candidates.
Of course, the FF started out by denying the vote to women and anyone other than property owners, who, it was assumed, had sufficiently knowledgeable political antennae to choose wisely and well.
In the two plus centuries since, American has made significant progress in terms of education, inclusion (at least in voting) and in most other areas of society. But the nation is falling far short of the idea "informed voter." In fact, the influence of the media, including advertising and social media (none of which was anticipated in the 1700s) appears to be producing an easily swayed, ill-informed or outright manipulated voter more consumed by voting against candidates instead of choosing those they want to be represented by.
The notion of the "independent" voter, in this climate, is hard to believe, much less accept. Since Regan's "the government is the problem, not the solution," American voters have self-organized into warring tribes, inspired and led by expert public opinion manipulation that picks at resentment, anger and racism.
It is my firm conviction that this fraught situation is entirely due to the "modern" Republican Party of Atwater, Gingrich, Parscale, and others of their ilk, who are savaging democracy.
17
This is a complex discussion, and I wish it was more understandable. (Guessing my statistics grade wasn't a fluke.) Having said that I recall that about 43 percent of eligible voters didn't cast a ballot in 2016. Wisconsin was one of the States where voter turnout decreased the most.
I read that these figures are drawn from "Swing"-ers. People who voted and could be convinced to change their vote.
It has been suggested that the Swingers aren't the ones who should be important to the Democrats. The so-called "intermittant" voters who tend to be unmarried and, according to some surveyors, less angry with the government. I saw this figure at 20% of the American population, but that was in 2008. I have read recently that this is mostly comprised of the under 29 electorate. Only 31% turned out in the 2018 midterm election.
So, while this article is extremely interested, the perspective so often required in order to understand the material is absent.
A few broader-based evaluations, or comparisons, would have been helpful.
10
Thank reader for the thoughtful comments. How can we predict anything when we do not know who will show up to vote and only a fraction of the electorate votes in general
4
I am what's considered a "swing voter" and have been since 2008 or so. After I began to see so many voters and politicians view politics as a sporting event, comparable to a Super Bowl game. My team vs. yours.
The current crisis in Washington only magnifies this. Not one side will state when they've made a mistake or when their man is wrong. Heaven forbid they do the right thing. They're consumed in getting their way no matter who they step on.
Many swing voters are actually those who fall in the middle, thus the reason why we're hearing more from the extreme left and the extreme right groups. The swing voter is a bit more silent and observes. Takes in everything, tends to listen to all discussions in groups and will voice their opinion but not so aggressively. If anything, we may hear us say "wake up folks"!
4
Voter turnout for national elections in the U.S. trails all other developed countries (except Switzerland). For the 2016 election, it was 55.7%. This has been the sad reality in the so-called greatest democracy on earth.
But when the mid-terms rolled around, the comparative turnout shot up. Even though the percentage was just about 50%, it was the highest turnout of any mid-term election in over 100 years. And we know what happened in the House of Representatives and state houses across the country.
I like to think if Trump has done one positive thing for this country, it has been to energize Democratic grassroots GOTV campaigns from sea to shining sea, and I'm depending on him to keep up the good work for the 2020 election.
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@Jan
If the total turnout in 2020 gets above about 62-63%, Trump will lose badly, because that means low turnout voters--among them younger and African American male voters (many of whom voted for Obama but stayed home of voted third party in 2016)--cam to the polls despite attempts to disenfranchise them.
Which is why Dems need to have those carpools and phone banks and text trees and email lists--and attorneys at the ready to challenge those attempts to suppress voters--set up now.
4
“Those who voted in the midterm election voted for the Republican congressional candidate by one point.” Yet, despite this, the Democrats won congress by a landslide in 2018. Indeed, Democrats gained congressional seats in the key swing states of Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and even Florida.
Point being, it wasn’t the swing voters this article talks about that determined the 2018 election. It was the people who stayed home on November 8, 2016, letting Trump win, who gave congress back to Democrats on November 6, 2018.
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If you haven’t made up your mind yet I think you’re a lost cause.
No decision has ever been easier.
This has been the worst Presidency in generations.
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@Andrew
Actually, if one is/leans Republican, I can see how it will be a very difficult decision.
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@Andrew
"This has been the worst Presidency in generations."
In generations?! Name a worse one. In centuries.
21
Basically you believe that you are better than anyone different than you. Please don’t canvas. I want to win. That means winning people over. You don’t win them over by telling them how much better and smarter you are than them.
4
“In the last presidential election, millions of voters flipped from Barack Obama to Donald Trump or from Mitt Romney to Hillary Clinton. In the Midwestern battlegrounds, the flood of white, working-class defections to Mr. Trump overwhelmed the smaller stream of white, college-educated voters who defected from the Republicans.”
Quite a powerful case to be made against the notion that direct democracy is a good idea.
“It turns out that many of the low-turnout voters are also the persuadable ones. They don’t have the clear, ideologically consistent views that make them a natural fit for either party, and so they are less likely to vote as well.”
Lenin called them ‘useful idiots’. Tools that can be utilized only when needed, and only to the extent required. Human automatons, whose only comprehension of meaning is found in the most basic of mathematical averages. The meek have inherited the earth, and we are them.
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I wonder if Republicans fully appreciate that many 'liberals' would vote for a Republican with integrity, if they would just give us one in place of Trump, to avoid another 4 years of divisive hate. Keep your power but no more of this.
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@Helen
Your are correct! Mr. Romney would cruise to victory. (registered Democrat here.)
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@Helen They would? Thus cementing the activist conservative/rightwing direction the supreme court has been set upon?
That explain, partly, why the Republicans keep winning, despite their horrible policies...
1
@Helen Come on, you know as well as I do that no matter who they run that person will be vilified to the high heavens.
Interesting statistics with a credible sample size....much more credible than most polls reported by the national media with a sample size that oftentimes is no more than 400 or 600. Independent voters are more likely to determine the outcome of a national election than a local ones.
Many of these swing voters went for Obama in his two victories, even in North Carolina the first time and then went for Trump in 2016. I think the reason many males...regardless of race.....flipped over to Trump in 2016 is because of what Republicans call identity politics and political correctness.
When canvassing working class neighborhoods in North Carolina....mostly Latinos, African Americans, and also some whites...I have detected a strong dislike of affluent college educated types who live in "mansions" and show no respect for the hard labor they perform. It is not that they like Trump so much as they have been offended by the media obsession with identity politics and political correctness.
The ones who don't support continued immigration...many of whom are actually Latinos...express their concern for how increased immigration drives down wages. They don't actually express racist or sexist answers and are offended by these sterotypes.
Free college does not appeal to them because they don't see themselves going there and they are convinced that free trade has driven jobs overseas. I think these are legitimate concerns.
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@Robert Scull
As a minority I have suffered with the bigotry racism in this country. turned down from professional positions because a white woman who was connected was chosen overme. Priveledge vs merit.
However I still want democracy and will not follow the cult of an ignorant president a pathetic GOP who have shown to the world their racism and incompetence.
I believe minorities know the truth and will vote for democracy. By the way salaries are low because white CEO's exploit cheap labor that is why they forwarded all the jobs overseas, that way they dont have to pay benefits, pension plans etc. the corruption of white Wall Street have suppressed wages, dont blame people who need a job.
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@Tony
Yes, clearly most persons who are categorized as minorities will vote with the Democrats and I will too, but I was only trying to explain my observations in interviewing the opinions of minorities when they explain why they are leaning toward Trump...a not insignificant minority within the minorities.
I should also clarify that many of the younger persons in these neighborhoods are going to college and working at the same time and would welcome free tuition, but these individuals shared viewpoints closer to my own.
@Robert Scull
Agreed. The identity politicking started before Trump when some BLM protests turned to riots, talk about reparations grew serious, “straight white man” became a slur, Obama (whom I love) instituted transgender military service by fiat (as opposed to Don’t Ask Don’t Tell which went through the messy legislative process in Congress), the “bathroom wars” began in earnest, and campus hysteria took hold of elite universities. These are the “PC” issues that Trump voters were reacting against. They’re why he won and the reason none of them care about his broken healthcare promise or tax cuts. They’re why even those hurt by his trade policies still support him.
Since the election, it has only gotten worse. All the hate crime hoaxes and premature outrage, obsession with pronouns and novel gender identities, transwomen beginning to dominate women’s sports (see Andraya Yearwood, Terry Miller, Rachel McKinnon, etc.), sanctuary cities and posturing on illegal immigration, demonization of white women even though the exit polls were wrong (they were split 46–45 Trump–Hillary), the Women’s March leaders’ refusal to denounce Farrakhan—I can’t even keep track of every controversy. Some liberals think these are all good things. Others don’t know about them or dismiss them as isolated incidents. Neither realize that rightwing media covers them relentlessly and how bad it looks when the left acts like they’re non-issues.
Come on. This shows the shallowness of the polls and the shallowness of many (all) of these swing voters. To say that a Warren policy might be "dangerous" to our country and not to realize that Trump is already dangerous to our country shows either willful ignorance or just plain ignorance. Did that computer scientist learn anything in school beyond coding and engineering?
Warren is bright, informed, and reasonable. If parts or all of one of her policies is flawed, argue with her. She might be persuaded and change the policy. She will compromise. She will be respectful of everyone.
You cannot say any of this about Trump, and about the Republicans who follow him lock step, or goose-step.
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To this group dangerous means “my taxes will go up and my stocks take a hit.” I think greed is a major factor in their assessments.
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@Just Thinking’
Primary advice for your eventual next president in the GENERAL elerction
If you want a woman, vote Klobuchar
If you want a liberal vote Bernie (a big stretch)
If you want Trump, vote Warren
Sadly it does not matter what is rational or right or what people should know. All that matters is how they actually vote in the booth. If you honestly consider this and consider your truly undecided voter the democrats would have the best luck with a straight pete or young biden. Sad this is how people think but its true. For now I am hoping Pete or Klobuchar or another breaks ahead before it is too late again
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@BB
The same could have been said about Obama in 2008 or 2012. Our fellow citizens are predictable for the most part. But occasionally they surprise us.
We don't want to indulge in wishful thinking. But we also should probably not think in the most pessimistic thinking.
There is a lot of time before the election, a lot of impeachment testimony to come out, a lot of Giuliani, a possibility of an economic downturn, . . . In other words, events have a way of biting you where you least expect it.
3
This is so out of touch it’s incredible. A heck of a lot more people are undecided than this author thinks. People are undecided because the democrats have beyond terrible options. In fact I don’t know a single person excited to vote for warren because they think her policies not only won’t pass but they don’t think she can manage foreign policy well. They don’t mind her, but not as president. They know she’s lying about how to make her policies work and are scared of middle class tax raises. They think yang is interesting and Tulsi is competent and rational, but they are concerned about either being experienced enough to run a country of 300 million people. They dont love Bernie but were burnt out on the last election and don’t think he’d win. When I ask who are you voting for they say they can’t deal with trump, but then I ask so what if someone new entered the race? What if Bloomberg ran? Then all of them said I’d consider Bloomberg or flat out say yes I’d vote for Bloomberg. Some even said they’d take Romney. One republican said he’d even vote for Bloomberg. I ask why. They sad he’s a competent businessman that is a straight shooter. (Aka no drama) What does this demographic have in common? All 6 figure college educated xennials that don’t like socialism and see it in the progressive party. If you ignore us in the next election you won’t like the results. Don’t be as crazy as trump and have sane passable policy and you win the next election. Yes it’s really that easy.
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@location01 - I am that independent voter that would vote for Bloomberg or Romney - never Warren, Bernie or Trump.
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@DS congratulations you are a rational human. This is quite literally every single friend I have and I’m shocked all of us are in this situation and that the media simply cannot grasp it. I think we are going to find out in the next election that we are actually the majority of America. I bet this percentage is 30-40 percent of voters and they’re not taking us seriously.
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It does bother me that 6 states decide the election. Because of Electoral College rule the other 44 states don’t count because those results are predetermined. What kind of democracy is that? Why should I vote.
Well, my tiny voice should be heard. I’ll write in Tulsi or maybe Amy because is a certainty Ct is going blue.
If popular vote counted, in my case I’d vote for the Democrat nominee.
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@Lester Giles While I agree the electoral college is outdated, everyone who makes a protest vote in the general election is contributing to the electoral college allowing the party that doesn't win the popular vote, to steal the election. I encourage you to vote your conscience in the primaries, but please vote for the candidate on the ballot in the general election, and encourage like-minded people to do so. You can flip the electoral college, or you can do just what the Republican party wants you to do -- hate the general candidate enough that you will either vote for their candidate, or write-in someone else -- either choice strengthens their counts in the electoral college.
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I made a decision 8 months ago. If Trump is reelected, I will move out of this country. His reelection will spell the doom of the Republic. His reelection will tell me that this is what America has become. I will not want anything to do with it.
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@Telos start planning now then because with this economy he’s going to win
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@Telos Quite a dramatic move. Do you have a job lined up? A country that wants you? Changing citizenship is quite a process. Go in peace.
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@Telos It must be nice to be so unattached and wealthy that you are able to run to another country. Many of us are not and will have to stay and keep fighting. You can thank us if we succeed—averting global environmental and political collapse. Something no one will be able to run from.
1
Voters who would swing right because of a Dem candidate position on Medicare4All need to realize this: single payer healthcare is extremely UNLIKELY to happen even with Dem House and Senate. But ANY Dem president will result in much more consumer friendly coverage, and stop undercutting the ACA. So fear not, vote your conscience in 2020, for your own health and that of the planet.
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People in the UK probably thought the same thing about Brexit
This is the strategy of the Times' election consultants that will get us all sunk: "As a group they are 57 percent male and 72 percent white, and 35 percent have college degrees. Most, 69 percent, say they usually vote for a mix of both Democratic and Republican candidates. " Does this mean we must choose a candidate who can try and appeal to this demographic? This very demographic is what is wrong with our society. This is precisely the election strategy that got us Trump last time. You may gain that confused white male, but you will lose the broad base of the people for whom progressive politics is a moral imperative (climate change, health care, social justice).
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@Jane-Marie Law other than being slightly more male that group is right in line with the country as whole.....
@Jane-Marie Law
I’m sorry but, given the choice of voting for a moderate democrat and trump, confused white males AND progressives will choose the dem.
This is taking for granted that there won’t be an independent to choose.
As bad as Trump is, the fact that so many people haven't found an attractive alternative to him among the vast number of Democratic candidates demonstrates a failure by the candidates, not a failure of those people.
The Democrats are so fixated on health care and identity politics that they never speak to the declining parts of the country and offer them any reason to hope that things will be better with them in charge.
Elizabeth Warren actually DOES have a plan for that, but she needs to get out to Detroit and sell it instead losing so much time competing in primaries in states no Democrat could possibly win in November.
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@Green Tea
It’s not the candidates who are so fixated on healthcare reform and “identity politics.” It’s the media. Look at the questions that are asked repeatedly in the debates. Why would the moderators ask if any candidates would provide healthcare to illegal immigrants? To create drama and divide people.
In addition, why is the media repeatedly writing stories about Warren’s healthcare plan when it would never become law? If any health insurance reform occurred, it would involve Congress and look different. The public is reacting to the media’s narrative, not the candidates’ discussions.
2
@Green Tea no, it’s a failure of those people.
No Democratic candidate is perfect, but if any of these so-called persuadable voters can’t see how awful Trump is, they are either willfully ignorant or just cruel. Or they’re actually conservatives that don’t want to admit that to pollsters.
1
“As a group they are 57 percent male and 72 percent white, and 35 percent have college degrees. Most, 69 percent, say they usually vote for a mix of both Democratic and Republican candidates.”
I resent these people — mostly white, mostly male, mostly older, mostly not well educated — who impair our nation’s ability to move forward. I’m grateful that this group will comprise a shrinking slice of the pie as time marches on.
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How lousy a candidate did Secretary Clinton have to be to turn Obama voters into undecided/Trump voters?
Resent them all you wish, the mindset of judgement that ensured Trumps ascension to the White House the last time around. Thanks a lot.
10
@Michael 72% white and 35% with college degrees are both in line with the demographic makeup of the country as a whole.
9
@Michael A person from Oakland, CA resenting a person's right to vote as they choose. Imagine that. People should only vote the way you choose right?
9
I get really frustrated whenever the cable news goes out and talks to real people who are, in my estimation, too stupid not to already be decided. Of course, some undecideds are rational people who just don't see the need to make the decision until the actual election when all the information is available. But the difference between Republican and Democrat is so extreme on so many issues: abortion, climate change, immigration, healthcare, race relations, gun control. How could they not be decided? I really can't stand listening to these people still needing more time to make up their minds. Yet, they are the ones, by being indecisive, hold the decision in their hands.
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Are the undecideds those who on the periphery, so to speak, of the Trump cult? That I can understand. There are those few who through enlightenment are able to free themselves.
2
ok. I'm stupid. But let me go through some issues you raise. I'm pro-life (and anti-capital punishment) I want increased legal immigration but secure borders. I would like to see hand guns controlled but think many people throw around terms like assault weapons and semi-automatic without knowing what they mean. I think we should push for more renewable energy because climate change is real. I am married to a doctor but every time I see an obese friend or relative, or a chain smoker, I wonder why I should help pay for their health care. I'm for free trade and a reduction of overseas military bases. I want the budget for national parks doubled but think the Department of Education is a waste (I'm a teacher) and I think in general too many Americans are too easily offended. I prefer conservative judges. I would like to see agricultural subsidies reduced. Which current candidate should I embrace?
11
@Matthew Choose the one that isn't a mentally ill sociopath with an agenda to enrich himself personally and install unqualified family members to positions of power while running a shadow diplomacy with his personal TV lawyer.
Choose the one who doesn't push conspiracy theories to his 60 million Twitter followers while denying climate change, alienating our allies, ceding global economic influence to China, political influence to Russia, and bribing American farmers for their loyalty while his ill-conceived tariff strategy ruins decades of trade relations.
Choose the one who appears to uphold the Constitution both in spirit and in statute with an understanding that the presidency is a public service, not a personal mandate to do as one pleases like some tin pot dictator.
I think you would be able to endure all the other things you don't agree with for a little while longer until another sane conservative comes along who is worth electing in your view.
Do you think you could grit your teeth and bear it at the expense of disposing of the current administration? I believe you can. I am desperately hoping that you will.
34
He will be re-elected. The country is doomed.
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@Me
Wait till after the election to give up, if the result is as you fear. Until then work to get the vote out.
10
@Me As much as it pains me to say so, I will agree he has a better than 50-50 shot at being re-elected. And yes, we are doomed if he is.
6
@Me
I'm smelling the same whiff in the air. Unbelievable, isn't it?
7
More concerning is should Congress not succeed in impeaching Trump which he and his cronies are making sure to dispel, A bullying Trump will be assured a 2020 reelection.
4
Our political system is vulnerable to ignorant, emotional voters and those who don't vote at all. This sad situation permits: excessive corporate influence; foreign influence; talk show influence; government by tweet. I'm an independent voter and under normal circumstances I would say a pox on both republicans and democrats for their biases and rigid adherence to party principles. But these are not normal circumstances. We have a rogue president and complicit republicans who have sold their souls.
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To people who say voting for Elizabeth Warren would take the country in a “bad direction” and thus they would vote for Trump, we have to ask “What kind of great direction has Donald Trump given this country?”
This country is void under Trump in so many ways. Let’s get serious.
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@MIMA
You are describing what I call the "hold my nose" voters. These voters will claim that they do not approve of Trump, but that the Democratic candidate (e.g. Hillary, Warren) is so odious that he/she felt they had no choice. They support Trump, but do not want to admit it, or to explain why.
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To people who make a lot of money, or who presume they’ll eventually make a lot of money, the possibility of increasing taxes is just as unacceptable as everything Trump as done. It’s upsetting some think that way, but here we are.
15
@MIMA there is no way Warren can win based on her health care program alone. The reality of it is shown by this article. It’s a reality Democrats need to face soon.
22
It’s too early for real swing voters to decide. A lot can happen in a year, face it. And a lot should happen. When politicians get lazy or unavailable (Hillary did not come to Wisconsin to campaign) voters take heed and opponents take ceremony (as Trump did flying in and out on his private plane back then making appearances)
Having said that, can we persuade people who were stuck on Bernie Sanders to vote carefully if he is not the nominee - again? Their votes for Jill Stein or not voting at all assisted in giving us Donald Trump!
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@MIMA
Stop blaming Jill Stein. In a democracy people can vote for whomever they wish. If Hillary were not so middle of the road and instead projected traditional democratic values, people would have been inspired and would have voted. You have trump because of Clinton.
4
@caljn
Is voting for someone out of spite the same as voting for someone you know will never have enough votes to become president?
Of course you can vote for anyone you want, but why and what does your vote mean might be worthwhile examining.
6
@MIMA This is not 2016. Bernie was not treated fairly by the DNC (which still is pushing corporate democrats) and Hillary Clinton was wildly unpopular. Although I would support any Democrat on the ticket, I prefer Mayor Pete, Cory Booker and Bernie. Dems will not have the same scenario as in 2016.
One wonders why these men are so against a single payer system, how much do they low about it, have they read senator Warren ideas on the subject? You are paying exorbitant prices for it already and what you get out of the system leaves much to be desired, how many of you have forgone treatment or avoid the doctor all together because you are afraid of the unknown cost? This is what drives America these days, fear, the Republicans use it like skilled technicians and their base live their lives in a constant state of it, fear heightens the emotions and increases paranoia, no decision made in such a state, will ever be a good one.
Let go of your fear mystical swing voter, and vote on a positive vision of what could be if you trust Warren or Sanders to do what they promise.
A wise man once said, "Anger, fear, aggression; the dark side are they. Once you start down the dark path, forever will it dominate your destiny, consume you it will.”
34
@Fe explain to me how you will get every doctor in America to take a massive pay cut. Explain to me how the nursing union will agree to a pay cut. Then ask how you would like it if your career was managed fully by the gvt. That’s how single payer works. The gvt gets to tell every doctor in America what they will approve, pay for etc and the payout is a good 40 percent lower than traditional insurance payouts. (That is in the Bernie plan). Yea it laughably won’t work. Other countries have a private option so not only are their taxes higher but they’re also paying $100-$200 month for extra coverage. The math won’t add up and if you think all these top cancer centers can survive on gvt rates you’re dreaming a very cute dream. Ask any hospital administrator how well that would work.
2
@Location01
Money money money, that's all you guys worry about isn't it...
What's in it for me, how do I get mine, what's it going to cost ME?
Did you read Senator Warrens proposal?
I don't pretend to be an expert on the matter, but I know what we have now costs a lot a delivers little, so if the worst thing that happens is a few doctors have to forgo an extra house or another vacation, so a single mother in W Virginia can get her kid immunized and regular check ups, I'm all in.
@Location01
Money money money, that's all you guys worry about isn't it...
The doctors are all in with the insurance companies making all the decisions on cost and care, let's cut out all the government subsidies and tax breaks to hospitals and insurance companies, since they are all so against the scary government interference.
What's in it for me, how do I get mine, what's it going to cost ME, when do we start caring more for people then possession, property, position?
Did you read Senator Warrens proposal?
I don't pretend to be an expert on the matter, but I know what we have now costs a lot a delivers little, so if the worst thing that happens is a few doctors have to forgo an extra house or another vacation, so a single mother in W Virginia can get her kid immunized and regular check ups, I'm all in.
Personally, I’m highly persuadable on the issue of whether that was more infuriating than it was depressing.
Trump is absolutely going to win again.
109
Don’t psyche yourself out. Have faith in the electorate and our democracy. Just don’t sit out on Election Day. Apathy is what keeps despots in power.
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@Alejandro F. Actually the articles suggests that if Biden is the Democrat candidate he has a chance of winning. If it is somebody else then yes, we probably need to ready for another 4 years of Trump.
12
@rs l Good grief, I hope not! Cllimate change is too important to ignore as this administration is doing. The immigration targets are so low (18000) that we are not replacing those who die (about 2.5M/yr, and our birthrate is 1.72--we need it to be around 2.2). In other words, we'll be short of wage earners paying into the Social Security System. This will give the Rs another reason to privatize SSI.
12
To me, this data underscores the importance of voter turnout. If a progressive candidate is to win, Women, Hispanics and African-American voters and all the other very important ethnic, religious, non-religious and immigrant groups who are never mentioned, must get “Fired Up and Ready to Go!” Contrary to your conclusions, we cannot run Candidate Safe or Candidate Bland.
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@Lynn this comment is precisely why trump will win the next election. This is a terrible strategy. Identity politics is how we got trump. You are out of touch with most of America.
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@Location01. I, like all others who elected President Obama, are proud to be “out of touch.”
21
@Location01 White identity politics is how we got Trump, and why it looks like we’ll be stuck with him.
22
Really shows how our form of government needs to adapt to a bigger population by restructuring from a majority controlled Congress to a parliamentary style of government or some form of hybrid. To think this small amount of people have our country in their hands is unbelievable.
56
Trump got less of a percentage of the vote than Mitt Romney did. The problem is not flipping back these "swing" voters.
It is turning out people who stayed home last time because they felt unenthusiastic about Clinton.
A progressive candidate with bold plans who is willing to take on corporate power will win the election. Joe Biden is Hilary 2.0.
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@Matt That is what we saw last year in GA with Stacey Abrams. Some were saying she wouldn't have a chance because she is too progressive, but she energized voter turnout (aside from those who couldn't vote thanks to Kemp's shenanigans) and it wound up being a much closer than expected.
34
You got it. Inspire the potential voter and address his/her hopeless affect. Isn’t it true that Australia everyone has to vote.
Let’s also focus on voter suppression as Stacy Adams is doing.
13
There were also a chunk of voters who were put off by Trump but have come around to supporting him as he has delivered to them on some key issues like federal and supreme court nominations. Many did not vote for him as he was thought of as a loser but is now being seen as winner. Many didn't vote for him as they had to keep their bigotry hidden but now that he has given legitimacy to their resentment against political correctness they no longer need to hide their support.
Bottom line, we can't use old calculations and fight in 2020 as if it were 2016.
21
In normal times a swing voter makes sense but in the Trump era, not so much. How can any sane person cast his/her vote for Trump unless the swing voter hasn’t followed the happenings of the last 3 long years?
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@Pigenfrafyn I get the impression that either they haven't been following what has been going on over the past three years or they haven't been very honest with the reporters who have questioned them.
Otherwise, I agree with you that none of this makes any sense.
24
Let me try. Those of us nearing retirement look at our 401k and are content. We look at unemployment and it looks great. On the issue of black unemployment, it looks better than ever, and one might surmise, bigmouth in chief notwithstanding, that social unrest might actually improve. I would very much like to vote for a democrat as I’ve done all but one time in my 63 years on earth. But for goodness sake, the policies some of the lead contenders espouse would hammer my family, which is not rich by any measure. So I guess I still remain hoping very strongly that the dems will put up Biden or Klobuchar or Buttigieg, but I’m not holding my breath.
14
Because Warren and Sanders are jokes.
9