I'm hoping for a Warren, Omar ticket. Guaranteed to re-elect President Trump, restore the House to a Republican Majority and widen the Republican Senate count.
9
Yet another headline attempting to make Bernie Sanders disappear. If it were not for social media, as well as personal attendance at rallies, I would never know that Bernie is hosting events with ten thousand people and is working with thousands of dedicated volunteers.
What will it take for the media to give Bernie a fair shake?
26
You neglected to mention that all this is based on NY Times state polls which are in disparity with polls from other polling firms. I noticed that the NY Times poll of Michigan shows Biden one point ahead of Trump while another poll the released the same day from another polling firm shows Biden 12 points ahead in Michigan. What if the entire article is based on faulty polls?
8
Another four years of Trump? How depressing!
The only hope to see the back of him is to nominate a candidate who appeals broadly.
The divisiveness among Democrats whether to support progressive candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders or a moderate like Joe Biden will be exploited by Russia to help Trump win again, if Putin sees fit to weaken America domestically and internationally.
Let’s hope that Democrats will get their act together – not for the sake of ideology, but for the sake of their country’s future.
11
It's early still but this should be a warning sign to Dems: elect the perfect progressive at your own peril. That a leader as breathtakingly flawed as Trump can still hold a lead in so many of these states should tell the idealists on the left more than a little bit about the electorate in many parts of the US. The only "revolution" that will happen in 2020 if we nominate the a way left of center candidate will be the one that Trump and co. have already started.
8
These polls are consistent with polls over the past year showing Trump close to Sanders and Warren and months of Dem debates and impeachment have helped Trump more than hurt him. It also shows that Warrens rising popularity among Dem voters means nothing in a general election decide solely by moderate voters in these six states. As for Biden, he was much farther ahead, but constant attack’s from the media and other Dem opponents and poor debate performances have reduced his lead against Trump. The Dems should have rallied around him when they could but now it may be too late. Trump is likely to gain in the polls from here...once again it shows a National Democratic Party that does not understand the American people.
8
This report depresses me beyond words.
6
It's interesting that Democrats rail against the electoral college because Trump lost the popular vote but when HRC received more votes in the 2008 primaries against Obama no one thought it mattered. The Democrats didn't change the primary system until the 2016 primaries nominated a candidate who received more votes.
The founders devised a system which would keep the largest states from dominating the process. HRC's popular vote total was nearly entirely due to her margin in California. This is exactly what the founders sought to prevent.
Furthermore, there were 2 issues unique to California making the popular vote total inapplicable to the result. First, California had an open Senate seat with no Republican on the ballot. This hasn't happened since Jim Crow. If an open Senate seat in Georgia in the 1950s without a Republican on the ballot was voter suppression why isn't California's system also voter suppression? Second, California's system of counting absentee ballots after the close of the polls is unique.
24 hours after the close of the polls HRC led by about 400,000 votes. No state's total changed by more than 10,000 votes at that point except California's which changed by roughly 4 million. California alone counts ballots received more than a few days after the close of the polls. This doesn't make the votes illegitimate, but rather the national vote total inapplicable.
You can't whine and change the rules after an election. It's what the founders wanted.
11
Actually, you can. The founders wrote into the document itself, the rules for changing the rules. So they clearly also “wanted” future citizens to be able to literally re-write portions of the document, because they realized that they were not divinely inspired saints gifted with omnipotence on every question of government and that future generations should be allowed to govern themselves and not be unduly constrained by their opinion on everything.
10
We need Biden more than ever! Everybody vote for Biden. He is the only one who can defeat Trump!
2
I didn’t know or was taught that one could be president or get to rule America by having an Electoral College in ones pocket...
Really cool eh.
2
I hate the electoral college.
8
Where's the column that shows Trump vs. Sanders?
14
Happy you say his electoral polls are solid; since the Times has been way wrong before.
5
Trump voters are blind to the gigantic deficit he has created with his tax cuts for the wealthiest and the incredible damage he is doing to our environment, which is only resources to be plundered as far as he is concerned. Their grandchildren will be appalled at this short-sightedness.
10
Well, since we've already apparently lost, let's go Andrew Yang!! At least he makes Trump voters feel like he cares about their issues.
6
This headline is really biased. The facts show that Trump would do well against Bernie and Warren, but would not do well against
VP Biden.
3
Hillary lost because she didn't turn out the black vote in Detroit, Philadelphia and Milwaukee. Biden will turn out these voters and would win the Presidency in doing so. I don't think Warren or Sanders will excite the black vote, so they'd both be Hillary redux. It's Biden or bust.
3
Nobody ever gets it right jumping through polling hoops. Why don't you all just ask the Military C.I.A.F.B.I. shadow government Television industry who will be appointed through slanted coverage in 2020? You are really expending too much energy. Just ask them. They appointed Trump with a Billion dollars worth of free airtime. I'll make it easy to begin; N.B.C. is behind Trump. A.B.C. always works for the shadow government, and C.B.S.? well, that is what they call themselves!
She is not "hampered by her gender".
She is hampered by sexism and misogyny.
16
Sad that we have system that gives dust more power than people.
Even more sad is that Republican Party is fine with minority rule as long the majority of that minority is white.
6
Are there any single Canadian men out there looking for a solvent, reasonably nice woman willing to emigrate?
Our neighbors to the north better start working on their wall ASAP.
10
After reading this article I emailed it to my wife. She is far less obsessed with politics than I am but she was equally appalled. The very thought of another four years of Trump is enough to make us want to curl up into a ball ... and we're not even Americans!
This is simply too close for comfort. The Democrats MUST use their brains and nominate a candidate who will have broad appeal across the spectrum. Joe Biden may be past his prime but he is still sound of mind and a fundamentally decent human being. For that reason ALONE he is a thousand times better than Trump could ever be.
America's role in the world is too important to blow this one. Our planet is facing an existential crisis of such epic proportions we may never recover from it. The world as we know it will be changed forever. Without America on our side our chances of defeating it are practically nil.
For this reason alone, there is NOTHING more important that this forthcoming election. Let's get Trump gone and get busy saving our beautful blue marble!
3
If THIS doesn't underscore the bankrupt, corrupt and anti-democratic nature of the horrific "Electoral College" I'm not sure what does.
What other supposedly "representative democracy" would allow a system where the clear choice of voters is jettisoned and where the LOSER is allowed to take the reigns of power?
If Trump is permitted to once again LOSE and be "rewarded" for that loss with four more years to stack our courts, fight environmental protection, encourage and enable racism, alienate our allies, use his office for personal enrichment, cut more taxes for the already obscenely wealthy and further endanger our national security, it will be the beginning of the end of this once good and decent nation.
We won't be able to eliminate this perverse mockery of democratic government before next year's election but we MUST do so soon. The end of the Electoral College is long overdue.
11
"The margin of sampling error for an individual state poll is plus or minus 4.4, except for Michigan at plus or minus 5.1 points."
Taking into account this sampling error, the polling data for likely voters shows that Biden, Sanders or Warren could be 1 to 4 percent ahead of Trump in these battleground states. Poll results like that at this stage in the election cycle are almost but not quite completely meaningless.
Democrats have a tough fight and will need to run a smart campaign (e.g. don't select a candidate as unpopular as Hillary Clinton).
If Trump is re-elected then we got the leader we deserve for ignoring the impact that "free trade" and de-unionization has had on the working class for decades. A Trump re-election will also confirm that the loss of many precious things that generations sacrificed so much for is not enough to overcome the confusion, pain, racism, greed, misogyny, tribalism, hate or cynicism fuels Trump voters.
Maybe allowing public schools and local newspapers to decline and right wing propaganda outlets to thrive wasn't such a great idea after all.
6
Run Warren Trump wins the electoral college and we will whine for another four years. Recent polls are not bad for Trump and that should worry everybody praying for a relief from the nightmare.Warren can't when in those states Trump took from Clinton. Mayor Pete's lifestyle like or not is going to take him down in South Carolina and the bible belt. Biden either needs to get a shot of energy or step aside.I think Amy has the goods to take it all the way. Bernie can't catch the magic again.
4
I wish John Kerry had gotten 100,000 more votes in Ohio in 2004. Then he would have won the presidency while losing the popular vote. Not only would we have had John Kerry for the next four years instead of George W. Bush, but I guarantee you the Republicans (with help from Fox, Rush, et.al.) would have abolished the electoral college within one year.
9
I live in Maryland, and I vote in every election. My votes for county council and executive, combined with my votes for state delegate and senator, have far more impact on my daily life than my vote for President. That's the curse of living in Maryland, where every four years I can leave the top part of my ballot blank, knowing that my vote for President is far outweighed by someone who lives in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, or any other so-called swing state. The fact that every four years presidential candidates contort themselves into unbelievable positions to gain a razor-thin Electoral college advantage truly sickens me, but I know that nothing will be done about it until a coup or civil war erupts.
3
Biden/Tulsi ticket will have a better chance of winning. However, if the Democrats proceed with Impeachment, Trump is likely to win.
2
A very telling comment: Paraphrasing-"Warren is a Hillary clone."
I think that this is a common feeling among those inclined to vote Democratic. Whether they see Warren as physically resembling Hillary or do not want a repeat of the 2016 defeat or think that a woman cannot win right now, whatever the reason this is the subliminal message: She can't win and I won't vote for her.
It is a very human trait to put behind us what we do not like to face. In this case it is an embarrassing defeat by an unfit Trump in 2016. Democrats recognize the absolute necessity of defeating the incumbent...but we haven't quite found that person yet.
Maybe it will be a rejuvenated Biden, or perhaps someone who hasn't appeared yet or made any noise yet. Obama had that sense of momentum, even inevitability about him. We need something like that now.
2
I honestly do not know what to do with people who have watched this man's behavior and destructiveness in the past 3 years and still want him for POTUS. It seems that some people are willing to overlook many things, even things which are harmful for themselves and their families and the nation, in order to get some things that they like.
9
It's astounding to me that voters in this poll consider the things that Warren is advocating - things that most Europeans take for granted, like single-payer healthcare - too far to the left. I consider them basic human decency and simple fairness.
11
Ever wondered why people voted For Trump in 2016. They truly wanted change from the usual status quo of Washington. People want some sort of change, an improvement, any improvement in their lives. Trump came along promising change, kind of like Obama and he rode the crest of the wave. Obama was a good inspirational speaker, but offered little change to the status quo. Put Bankers in key positions and was busy prostrating himself to get approval from Republicans. My point is, better to go down standing for something, health care for all, making college affordable, put an end to the health care job lock.
6
These polls may be misleading as they ignore the role of the Democratic Party establishment. Much of it is now demonizing Warren and Sanders and that very likely influences some voters.
However, if the Democrats would manage to do what the Republicans did in 2016 - uniting behind a candidate that quite a few of them previously disliked - this might shift the balance. In that case Warren and Sanders might do better than Biden.
2
I wish Democrats and the media would stop trying to label candidates confusingly as progressive, centrist, liberal or moderate, as if no one could be all of the above. It seems as if a good many believe that if a supposed centrist like Biden, is the nominee, they will lose, while an equal number think that if a so-called progressive like Warren is nominated, they will also lose. I can't wait for the so-called Democratic debates to end, as the next two may going to be again monopolized by questions about the meaning of Medicare for all as opposed to protecting, expanding and improving the ACA for the majority of the populace and the many other issues and crises facing the nation.
1
Thank goodness for my Irish mother and my Irish passport. And my children’s. Emerald Isle awaits if trump is re-elected in 2020.
12
If Warren wins it’ll feel like stepping into the future. Finally getting our country up to what it should be... Bush dragged America down for 8 long years and now it’ll be 4 years of this clown unless he’s kicked out or resigns before the election. Maybe Warren polls better against incumbent President Pence?
8
Trump has left his home state and moved to Florida. He is selling his Washington hotel. If that doesn't sound like someone who is getting ready to retire what does?
3
How did a centrist work out for the Democrats last time?
8
She WON by Three Million Votes.
10
The middle class voters of this country DO NOT want what Warren and Sanders are trying to sell. All of these policies make them worse off.
6
This is not what democracy looks like.
3
Might I introduce something a bit strange to the community here? I'm an independent. Have friends across the aisles. I'm going to a wedding tomorrow to see two dear female friends of mine get married. (Actually, I'm giving the bride away - her father was a friend of mine that passed last year. Took me a couple of weeks and many drafts to write the lines.)
But tonight I am at the house of other friends, who are watching the Hallmark Channel. Ever watched it? There's actually about five of them. Christmas movies, where everyone is white (except for the occasional token black.) Everything is wonderful. Everyone has perfectly white teeth. Christmas decorations are from the 50s. And everyone in this house is comforted. This is a universe. And folks, a LOT of people watch these shows.
Then there is the NYT universe, where if "God" exists, he is Mary's baby daddy, and Joseph so doesn't mind. Where Jesus (if he existed) obviously had relations with Magdalene the prostitute, and would have been totally into LGBT rights and socialized medicine.
I live with a foot in both worlds. And have experienced warmth and acceptance in both. But I've periodically got a wee bit of cognitive dissonance.
I just try to embrace anyone who invites me into their home. On either "side". And for some reason all too often get condemned by both sides for doing so.
I'm not "correct" unless I hate and condemn conservatives. Or unless I hate or condemn progressives.
I don't hate or condemn anyone.
10
#JRC Sorry,time for you to take a stand....the days for sitting on the fence are over, our country is in dire straits and needs people to stand up, speak out and resist...don’t hate, but resist and vote Democrat to give us a chance to correct the damage that Failure Trump has thrust upon us. I no longer tolerate people who still support Failure Trump.
8
Leading up to the American revolution a third of the population wanted to split from England, another third were loyal and the final third were undecided. Well, the revolutionaries started a war, the loyalists ran to Canada, and the undecideds had their decisions made for them. Avoiding conflict when the issues are this serious is not taking the high road, it's avoiding civic responsibility. There's no reason to hate people but you have to pick a side.
5
I'm a lifelong Republican
I will vote for whomever wins the Democratic nomination
And there's not anyone I know in actual real life who won't do the exact same thing
17
@Marion Grace Merriweather
Or so they say.
2
Well you are a breath of fresh air. (And we can continue to discuss, if we so desire, other points of view.)
2
Warren at the top of the ticket is a guaranteed win for Trump - she is female and extreme. He automatically wins FL, Ohio, MI -and WI.
11
#Diane Warren is an “extreme” what? She wants a decent life for all US residents, a healthcare policy that we can all afford, she wants taxes to be shared fairly and not to be skewed to the advantage of the wealthy and corporations. If that is “extreme” I want it.
10
Warren can’t win over Trump. Period. If the Democratic Party wants to get Trump out, the candidates need to sacrifice their idealistic lofty aims and aim to be realistic about what strategy is necessary to win this election. Attract middle of the roaders. Attract Republicans secretly wanting to separate themselves from DJT.
Warren and Sanders are worse than Trump for many Republican voters. In that case, those voters will stick with what they believe to be the lesser of two evils (Trump). Republicans seriously do not want what those two people (Warren and Sanders) advertise and stand for. Republicans don’t like liberals.
If you have friends who are Republicans, and I do, then you will understand. They mention fear of AOC, Bernie, and Warren in that order. They are scared to death by them. Go figure. I can’t have a rational discussion to sort it out. It heats up.
They look for a more viable option that isn’t too far left of center. If the Dems don’t wake up and get this, forget it.
I can’t vote for either Warren or Bernie. Would have voted for Beto. I can tolerate Biden. The rest? Not viable. I hate to be a “non-voter”. I would rather stab myself in the eye than vote for Trump. But voting for anyone but Biden, I probably can’t do. He’s who I think has a hair’s chance to win. Just a hair.
Hoping some late-comer will fly in to save the day. It’s happened before. Whether anyone is that brave or well to do, that’s the question. We can hope. It’s not over until it’s over.
8
I greatly appreciate your TX point of view. I do struggle though with why a greatly expanded health care system is so reviled. The Republicans worked so hard to demonize Obama and his health proposal, however, eventually many who benefitted were very glad for it. And I am very excited by Warren’s focus on reining in corporate influences in ALL of our lives.
3
Why bother with all the nitty gritty voter surveys when all that matters - all that counts - are how the Electoral college voters will vote? Survey them! They can vote however they want and the Republicans have fewer people to corrupt. Indeed, they decided the election in 2016 and back in 2000, and oh yea in 1876 and 1888 all in favor of Republicans and AGAINST the wishes of the overall popular vote. The last two Republican victories has cost our nation untold blood, treasure and misery - think wars, recession and lack of healthcare.
And yet, as the sub-title states, "Mr. Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College has persisted or even increased since 2016, new surveys showed."
The fact that such a divisive, criminal and dangerous man could be appointed president by a mere 304 individuals overriding the will of a majority 65,853,514 Americans in 2016 in the first place and then be allowed to win again in 2020 shows how flawed the Electoral College is.
A democratic nation that can't override such a travesty and anti-democratic system, must eventually face the terrible fate that awaits it - trump forever.
10
The context of the election is that Republican Party is trying to obtain permanent rule of a minority of Americans over the majority of Americans and they doing ti by systematically not following the rules for fairness when it comes to voting. Of the six states listed the Republicans have done their worst gerrymandering to obtain permanent control in three of them, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. In Wisconsin they passed a voter ID law to reduce the vote of minorities. In Florida they have made impossible to vote if you owe fees for court proceeding, basically a poll tax, which also is aimed at reducing the votes of minorities. This was after a law to prevent past felons from voting was overturned by a referendum. Therefore it is no accident that Trump is competitive in a number of swing states because the Republican have in effect abandoned liberal democracy and rigged the elections.
11
Can we get a better sense of the poll? Was it conducted by telephone? Facebook poll? Breakdown by age? What part of the state - suburban, rural, city?
1
Joe Biden's run for president is reminiscent of Senators Bob Dole (1996) and John McCain (2008). Both were establishment candidates, served long years in Congress, ex-military, and felt entitled to the presidency. After several attempts, they finally won their party's nomination, but none of them became president.
8
Interesting how the article avoids discussing Sanders as much as possible, despite the areas in which he is favored over Warren against Trump. This article is not alone in this; the major center-left news sources are determined to treat Sanders as a non-candidate, not even worth mentioning, even though a lot of voters seem to think otherwise. I'd say Sanders scares their wealthy owners more than Warren does--& they can defeart Warren by portraying her as unelectable because she's female.
5
The key of 2020 election is to MOBILIZE the Democrats and independents to vote as they did in 2018.
All Democrats candidates should openly announce in the next debate that they will support whoever is nominated unconditionally to unify the party.
13
Agreed. Mobilize even more. We should be registering and canvassing now to get voters excited and ready for next year. We learned in CA’s Central Valley that we needed a couple more months of GOTV. Well, we have 12 mos now. No excuses.
3
My fellow Democrats, ignore this article at all of our own peril. The states in the Midwest may vote for Trump over a candidate that is too progressive. I am also not sure these folks relate to Warren. As much as I wish everyone could vote for who they want and it will all work out, the Electoral College is a reality. Another 4 years of Trump would be a disaster for our country and the planet.
14
The electoral college is a really, of course. But what are you going to do about it? What I don't understand is why are there not millions of America flooding the streets demanding that people vote instead of land.
5
If life imitates art, we are forced to concede to the fact. Reality television is an art, and President Trump is it’s grand master.
6
Assuming this is a head to head race between Biden and Warren, this is a statstically significant edge for Biden if we assume that the polling errors are independent in each state. It is also a great result for Biden because it shows he is likely to win but that the election will be close enough that voters need to focus on electability.
Of course, a lot can change in a year - most notably Trump could be removed from office - but Trump, Sanders and Biden are known quantities so I would not expect much more variation on opinions of them. Warren has not gotten much critical attention since the DNA mess which might change soon and is more likely to hurt than help.
As we know all too well, a close win is still a win.
2
This just goes to show that it will be absolutely vital necessary to pick a centrist for the Democrats. As much as I think that Warren with her plan for healthcare would be great for the US, far too many potential Democrat voters are put off by it (they don't understand how much better off they would be). However, while Biden is such a centrist, unfortunately his age is clearly beginning too tell, and it could easily backfire. It's genuinely frightening that Trump, as truly awful as he is (without even going into the fact he should be impeached for high crimes and misdemanours), should still be in with a fighting chance. It does not bode well for the US as a democracy, nor for the rest of the world.
12
So, Biden is ahead of Trump in most of the states that Trump won, but Trump is stronger than he was 3 years ago. Explain that to me, Lucy.
8
We know where those who support the Democratic and the Republican party stand. The chance that a significant number of members of either of these parties is going to move into the other camp is quite remote. And so, let me address the Independents among us. If Mr. Biden is the Democratic nominee I'm going to take it that many of you will find it easier to vote for him than if the nominee were Ms. Warren, be it because of her gender, her policy stances, the clothes she wears, stores she shops in, etc. But as much as you may dislike her, this country CANNOT go through another four years like these. Let me quote you a sentence from an article published today on Canada's CTV Television Network. "Dozens of protesters gathered outside a federal court on Monday called for Canada's asylum agreement with the United States to be suspended, arguing the U.S. is not a safe country for refugees." Not counting this administration, when was the last time you saw/heard the sentence, "The U.S. is not a safe country for refugees"? Not (illegal) immigrants, refugees. And that coming from a country that probably has far more in common with the US than any other on this planet. If you are a red-blooded American and the notion that the US is NOT safe for refugees fails to embarrass you, then I highly doubt anything else will. We haven't become a pariah state yet, but if you go to the polls on November 3, 2020, and cast your vote for DJT, chances are that by 2024 we will have become one.
10
@steffie Hear, hear! I used to have HUGE admiration for the USA, having all my life been exposed to all the wonderful movies, books, music and other cultural gifts that America has given the world. As a young boy, I watched WWII movies and to me the gum-chewing, Lucky Strike-smoking American GI was a giant, a modern day samurai or knight, never mind if he was from Brooklyn or East Texas. And I was not alone, my friends felt the same way. For most of us, visiting America was a lifelong dream. Not just for the culture, but for what this country represented in the world. But this admiration has changed since Trump came to power. Not even George W Bush with his Iraq war has done as much to damage America's reputation around the world. I have seen an ugly side to America manifested in the administration of Donald Trump and it is deeply disturbing.
3
It is apparent that Demcorats are indulging similar delusions to the ones Republicans enjoyed in 2012 when the majority of them were certain Romney would win. Many of us will wake up the day after the election similarly stunned and slack-jawed because of our own confirmation bias. The problem isn't Trump. It's his supporters. You thought he'd get weaker in four years?
7
Trump will not win the youth vote. They will turn out and vote in large numbers. They have the blues!
9
Don’t be so sure; my nieces and nephews (all in their 20’s) are voting for DJT
3
Trump is to the presidency what Sandy Hook was to gun regulation. If the Trump presidency doesn’t make people get out and vote, nothing will.
9
I pray Biden wins the nomination. If not, liberals will only have themselves to blame for another 4 years of worsening Trump nightmare.
6
The democrats should be worried. Not that long ago, I think most of the Democratic top candidates were up near double figures in the battleground states. Now basically a tie.
4
As much as I like and respect Sen. Warren's and her facts-driven approach, or Uncle Joe's service as VP and megawatt smile and charisma, there is an obvious person who must be compelled to run: Michelle Obama.
She is the most popular woman in the world and would be a near-perfect candidate to defeat Trump. A recent poll showed her easily winning the nomination if she ran, even at this late stage. Saying repeatedly that she doesn't want to run for office makes me even more convinced she is the right person for the job.
It's time, Michelle, to make history again.
8
If the electoral college negates the will of the majority, then is the answer not for the majority to inflict harm on the minority that negates the will of the majority? Boycott anything grown , manufactured in or by an entity controlled by a resident of a state which negates the vote of the majority. Boycott the Base
9
I’m a 50 year old Democrat who has never voted for a Republican for President. But if the Dems nominate Warren that will change. I know literally hundreds of people who feel the same way - all Dems who will under no circumstance vote for Warren. She will destroy the lives of millions of Americans who work in industries (finance, energy, health care) that she in her infinite wisdom does not believe should exist. She despises anyone who has achieved success in this country. Her policies on the green new deal and Medicare for all are horrific. Nominate her and it will be the end of the party for sure.
17
@John Doe
I’m a 50 year old Republican who has never voted for a Democrat for President. But if the Pubs nominate Trump that will change. I know literally hundreds of people who feel the same way - all Pubs who will under no circumstance vote for Trump. He will destroy the lives of millions of Americans who work in industries (finance, energy, health care) that he in his infinite wisdom does not believe should exist. He despises anyone who has achieved success in this country. His policies on the green new deal and Medicare for all are horrific. Nominate Him and it will be the end of the party for sure.
8
Perfectly articulated
1
The headline conclusion is almost certainly overstates Mr. Trump's advantage, for at least two reasons that I, from the top of my head, can think of. First, it has been reported recently in the Times that some 7 million Americans are going to reach voting age in 2020. Prima facie, these young people are likely to be more liberal in their putative political leanings. This is likely to be true, a fortiori, in the six battleground states where the proportion of urban population is higher than in the states with partisan lean towards the GOP. This large block of potential voters have not had as yet the opportunity to show up among the de facto registered voters: Mr. Nate Cohn's sampling probabilities have not been able to account for this Democrat-leaning 'voting blocks'. Secondly, there is a bit of apparent disconnect between the Biden versus Trump margins, for example, across the five categories of registered voters on one hand, and the overall margins reported: is the percentage of whites without college education so dominant as to trump the fairly impressive advantages per Mr. Cohn's own results for each of the other FOUR categories of registered voters, namely, whites with college education, African-Americans, Hispanics and others? Mr. Trump's support is clearly shown in the results to be narrow rather than broad and diverse. The dissemination of the transcripts of the House hearings are more likely to be cause independents to lean left rather than right.
3
Pay attention when voting in primaries. When they come to my state, I will vote for the person most likely to beat Trump at that time and, for the moment, that appear to be Biden.
The Supreme Court is at stake, with two liberals coming up for appointment. There is no such thing as a progressive agenda if those seats are filled by Trump, For the moment Warren is the most likely to lose in the general election so her Plans will not matter in any way. This election is about beating Trump - not the "issues"
6
The author should consider taking a math course. She says that a Democrat would need to win 3 of the 6 battleground states to win the EC and the Presidency in 2020. President Trump won the EC by 32 votes. Michigan has 16 votes, and Pennsylvania has 20 votes. If the Democratic candidate wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, then that candidate would win the Presidency in 2020 if everything else stayed the same.
4
@Rich Caroll
Trump won by much more than 32 electoral votes. The difference was 77.
5
@Rich Caroll
No, he won by about 60-70 Electoral votes.
The current pro-Trump polling data needs to be discounted since he won the 2016 electoral college, with slim margins of popular votes in several states, with the assistance of Russian operatives. When that discounting happens, conclusions about candidates' respective strengths and positions will change.
Of course, we must assume that the 2020 election will be clean, unlike the prior one. Well, there's always hope.
5
And what reason do we have for thinking that the 2020 election would be clean? None whatsoever.
2
If the trumpeters are going to continue to support the stable genius as well as the Electoral College, we might as well bid democracy adieu. This is more than frightening.
15
I'm suspicious of these poll results, probably partly because I live in an area that's heavily populated with Sanders supporters. Still, I think that the sample is pretty small.
On Milwaukee's east side, I think most people will vote for whichever democrat gets the nomination.
Some young voters will lose all of their enthusiasm if Sanders isn't nominated. (Not a "Sanders of bust" mentality - just that no one else seems to get many of the young voters very excited.)
Some people will vote for anyone who didn't vote for the Iraq war resolution (and yes, that's a thing.)
I personally think it's too early to make a hard commitment to any one democrat.
4
Every time I feel hope, I am confronted with data like that contained in this article confirming one undeniable fact: a much too large proportion of Americans are stunningly ignorant, bigoted, and blind.
I don't know how meaningful any poll can be this early on, but the interviews described here are enough to make me wonder why I have ever hoped for genuine change through politics when our democracy demands we suffer under the tyranny of folks like this.
22
Democrats put the wrong person on the ballot with Hillary Clinton. I reluctantly voted for her because Trump was unthinkable. Don't make the same mistake again, please Democrats. We need Trump out of office. 4 more years of this person is horrifying.
I don't call Trump supporters racists, I think they have lost their way in a myriad of ways. Calling Trump supporters racists is far too simplistic.
17
Why? Sometimes the right answer is the
simplest.
5
At end of day, there are four battle ground states: Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. Whoever can win 3 out of these 4 states will win the election. National poll does not matter because the rest of the nation are highly bipolar, poll data from them are just confusing.
2
@Fump-Truck I am in Florida and I am voting for President Trump.
2
@Fump-Truck
A 2 - 2 split is most likely
1
@Fump-Truck
Michigan, not Ohio.
If Trump wins again, super liberals, blame yourselves.
Own it, you broke it.
18
The greatest threat to our democracy is not Russian meddling, it's pundits armed with polls sowing fear to nominate subaltern candidates. Quite remarkable that so many people got snookered by polling in 2016, yet once again tread the primrose path of confusing certitude with probability theory.
Does the poll really show Warren trailing? Or does it show that Biden and Sanders are better known? How is it that Biden's neck-and-neck in Michigan whilst Sanders is 2 pts ahead? Obviously Warren isn't trailing there because she's too much of a lib and it suggests that Biden is a lot weaker than many Dems care to admit. He shouldn't be even with Trump in Michigan.
I'm a news junkie and I pay way too much attention to politics. Most Americans are not; and because Warren is running in the Dem primary, it's to Dem voters that her message is now targeted and many people haven't formed a hard opinion on her yet. Like I said, Biden is a household name - he should be doing a lot better.
11
I was at a cafe in The Bay Area recently patiently explaining to a fairly typical virtue-signaling progressive why Biden was far more likely to win in a swing state like Arizona or Wisconsin than Warren. How Biden was well-liked by moderates, Independents and Republican-lites in a way that neither Clinton nor Warren are.
She responded huffily that she didn’t care nor did she want the vote of some 70-year-old misogynist! Oh really, I said? Do you realize that it’s the older citizens actually vote? That it’s in the swing states are where the presidency and the senate are won? That her idealistic younger voters are far less reliable?
So, sure I’ll take this older, more moderate-Independent-GOP-lite voter into the Democratic column. You Betcha I will. Because, unlike this cosseted Blue State progressive, I understand, as an Arizonan, that you have to work with the voters that you have, not some idealistic “activated” youth vote that the progressives wish they had.
25
It's quite obvious that you're correct, although Warren isn't a threat to capitalism (that, however, is a discussion for another time). My worry is that Biden is actually too old to stand up to the rigours of campaigning (I think the signs are there already). Unfortunately, the younger centrists look to be going nowhere.
4
Thoughtful Dems are right to be worried. Trump is a very vulnerable candidate. Test, the Dems top 4 candidates are seriously flawed. Bernie is not only too far left, but his age and health make him unlikely to beat Trump, Warren is too far left, has a health insurance policy that is wildly unpopular, and lacks credibility given her Native American appropriation issue. She won’t beat Trump. Biden is moderate but his age and his bumbling make him a weak candidate. And Mayor Pete is not ready for prime time. No wonder Hillary is so, so frustrated.
7
My hope was for Kamala Harris, but she sunk without a trace.
Trump and his White House backers have actually said that they hope Elizabeth Warren is the Democratic nominee. He knows that she will be easier for him to beat than Biden will be.
As for a Vice President pick, I suggest Biden pick a woman who is younger than him and who is very highly respected. I suggest possibly Marie Yovanovitch, the previous U.S. ambassador to Ukraine whom Trump fired this past May.
4
For those begrudgingly accepting that Biden is the most likely to beat Trump, many are suggesting various running mates as a consolation prize. Keep in mind that this vice president would be more than a demographic balance for the ticket to encourage the left not to stay home in the general. Just as Biden is the least likely to turn off the persuadable middle, his vp can't be so wildly different that they blow it with those same voters. Most importantly, there is a very real possibility that this person will be the next president (or nominee), if Biden serves only one term (or less). So forget Tulsi Gabbard. Forget Stacey Abrams. Buttigieg is broadly popular and serious enough to be president. Yang has a lot of support, left right, and center, and is popular with the kids. Klobuchar could work.
5
IMO, here's my platform for the Dems:
1. Enact rules limiting insurance company profits/drug prices.
2. Provide Medicare option for people/allow people to keep private insurance if they wish.
3. Trillion dollar plus infrastructure plan partially funded per paragraph 7 below.
4. No trade deals that permit use of cheap foreign labor.
5. Big climate change plan. First crack at employment for renewable energy investments goes to people losing jobs as the result reduction of carbon fuel industry.
6. Heavy investment into k-12 education and pre-k child care partially funded per paragraph 7 below.
7. Create a service plan where people can pay back college loans through national service (e.g., military, infrastructure, renewable energy, k-12 teaching, child care).
8. Raise income taxes on wealthy, create wealth tax and increase taxes on non-capital investment securities trading.
9. Make DOJ and FBI more independent and equally accountable to President and Congress.
10. Partial reduction in foreign military deployment through cooperative agreements with local military forces and military of other countries.
11. Challenge China on trade through cooperative pressure by U.S. and other countries (not U.S. acting alone).
12. Tax breaks to companies that permit employee ownership and decision-making.
13. Legalization of marijuana.
14. Add 3 seats to Supreme Court and those three seats selected equally by Democrat and Republican appointees.
15. President barred from using twitter.
15
i like it, jason!
A close look at the footnotes shows the poll has a margin of error for each state of 4.4% and in Michigan its 5.1%. Polling 3722 voters in 6 states works out to be 620 voters per state not sure how accurate you can be only talking to 622 people in state as big as Pennsylvania or Michigan. Plus was this land line phone, cell phone based. Just not sure how you can predict a states vote 1 year out talking to 600 voters in state of 12 million voters with large margin of error of 4.4% to 5.1%
11
Biden does not need to be perfect (what would perfection look like anyway?), but he does need to be able to trounce Trump in a debate and bring a convincing message about what he will do as a one-term president, which he has pledged to be. So far Biden hasn’t shown much spark and wit in his debate performances. Maybe he is saving those elements for later? Whoever the Dem candidate is, s/he must paint a compelling portrait of what this country is facing in terms of climate change, loss of a middle class, education and our economic future, not to mention the widening gap between rich and poor and what all of these challenges will mean for our democratic values and institutions. And then set out a plan that leaves no Americans behind!
2
@Jennifer I think JB is saving his real energy for the main campaign. I remember his 2012 performance. He destroyed Paul Ryan.
@Jennifer Maybe Biden doesn't have a spark. Maybe he is more like that comfy jacket or sweater you look for when it's cold. Not stylish, not in good condition, but it works.
10 years of Twitter PC police and identity politics, inability at countering the negative opinion of people regarding female candidates and the blatant leftism (“vote for me and I’ll replace your crapy private insurance with a single-payer system in 4 years...”).... and a DNC who always end up crying about why voters messed up the primary.
I’ll not even touch the Squad and weird anti-Israel comments by advocates/congresswomen though I thought those constituted a major third rail both for Reps and Dems until then...
Finally, I could say that if the American people choose Trump again: there is no excuse. But in this instance, when trying to explain why Dems lost again, there will be quite a lot of reasons. (with love & hope from the old continent)
5
This is not surprising. The Democrats are determined to nominate the hardest left candidate they can find - even Joe Biden has been forced to moved far to the left - and why is it a surprise that lots of heartland voters are appalled by that?
11
There is just no way Liz Warren can win in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, etc.
I decided this week that she simply is writing off all of us moderate Democrats, and does not seem to care about us.
I also decided that I will not vote for her again for Senate here in Massachusetts. She just seems to have gone off the deep end. I will only vote for her if she winds up the Democratic nominee, since we all must vote for whoever that turns out to be.
15
To me it comes as a surprise that they are not appalled by a lying president, who is a traitor, abuses his power, the constitution,damages the environment and the poor and has no respect for people and human rights. All good and defendable?
10
Why do we still have this antiquated system now that we are in the 21st century?
The Electoral College is not the way democracy works.
16
@wihikr
(1) We do not have a democracy - we have a republic (If you don't know that - please do not vote or breed)
(2) ANd yeah that is EXACTLY how it has worked in POTUS elections for over 230 years
What did you do ? Skip 8th grade civics class?
8
@anne
The electoral College was not borne out of a tenet of a Republic VS a Democracy. It was a compromise between those who thought it best for Congress to elect the president Vs those who thought the people should vote directly . Nothing at all to do with Republic Vs Democracy as a form of government. So you owe the previous commenter an apology . It seems that no one understands completely the Electoral College and for good reason . It is
UNDEMOCRATIC!!
5
Ann, the United States is supposed to be a republic that practices representative democracy. The electoral college and congressional gerrymandering prevent the true will of the voters from being enacted.
You might consider studying beyond the basic, simplistic grade school interpretation of how our government operates. Understanding the reality of how American elections and politics work is something all voting adults should be able to do.
1
Polls or not, we already know the country is 40-45 pct to any Democratic candidate and 40-45 pct to Trump. The undecided and independent voters count right now and a year from now. What Democrat would appeal to them? Biden has foreign policy experience and a measured plan to add a public option to private health insurance. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would do better?
1
How reliable have polls and surveys been in recent presidential elections? Politically, Trump is a dead man walking. He cannot win reelection except by illegal means. Common sense should tell us this. He won by a fluke of 77,000 votes in 4 states. His corruption and sociopathy have made him even less popular, except among a marginal, rabid base, insufficient to reelect him. Even many who voted for him now regret that decision. I am beginning to believe that this fear of a Trump reelection is propaganda spearheaded by centrist Democrats who want to sabotage the progressive challenge of Warren and Sanders. The best prediction of how things will go is not polls but the Democratic electoral success of the 2018 House elections and the damage that will be done to Trump during impeachment proceedings. Don't believe the hype. Unless he engineers a coup or comparable illegality, Trump is DONE.
3
@ZA. With all due respect, as much as I wish you were correct, you need to get out of the tri-state area and see who lives in the rest of the country. Trump WILL get re-elected if the dems do not find a nominee to attract voters in these swing states.
8
This is not the case. Trump is well loved by many. Unless Biden runs, he wins again.
5
Actually, the only reason that Trump is "loved by many" is because he hates the same people that his base hates.
It's really that simple.
Trump's presidency has never been based on anything but fear and hatred of "the other." He targets the very worst in all of us, knowing that some people---generally those lacking education, experience and perspective---will run to him, consumed as they are by their fears, ignorance, confusion and tribal instincts.
3
"But on average over the last three cycles, head-to-head polls a year ahead of the election have been as close to the final result as those taken the day before."
Have they now? I'd like to see the data on that. Just looking up Mitt Romney v Obama in 2011, Mitt Romney and Obama were tied. Obama won by 4 points. That's from RealClearPolitics' polling average.
And looking at the RealClearPolitics polling averages,,McCain had a HUGE lead on Obama in December by ~8 points. Obama beat McCain by 7 points. That's a 15 point difference.
Where is that data coming from? If you're wondering why people don't trust mainstream media, this article is a GREAT example as to why. That statement just feeds into the conspiracy theories that corporate media is out to get Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (I believe corporate media is too often dismissive of them, but I don't believe it's something they plot behind closed doors, more likely the reporters/journalists/etc.. support more moderate candidates and it's impossible to completely contain all bias).
Not to say I don't trust the New York Times. I think you guys do phenomenal reporting, but such a blanket statement without supporting facts is kind of insane...
4
The Electoral College was an after thought in 1789 and it should be removed because the original design was for political leaders casting the vote in each State to prevent the likelihood of electing a Trump like figure. Now the electors are gifts handed out as political favors. We should rely on popular vote. If we had in 2016, Trump would still be doing TV where he belongs.
11
The issue is not about which Democrat stands the best chance of defeating Trump. The issue is whether any Democrat - short of someone like Barack Obama or FDR - can beat him in the electoral college vote. Trump is unlikely to win the popular vote but he is virtually assured of winning the electoral college vote.
10
I wouldn't put much stock in these polls, which roughly reflect the name recognition level of each candidate. On paper, it sure looks like Biden has the best chance against Trump, but in practice Warren, who has a focused consistent message that she communicates effectively, is more likely to excite people and get them to the polls. The lesson of 2016 is that a milk toast, establishment candidate produces a lot of apathy in the party. Biden, never a compelling candidate to begin with, is now degraded by advanced age. The better strategy, IMO, is base vs. base. Warren's message should appeal to the same rural whites that Trump relies on. She would only have to peel away a small percentage of them to prevail.
9
What the young left leaning Democrats need to understand is the 1) their cohort will not vote in any large numbers. All one has to do is to look at the voter statistics in the last Presidential elections when the young left leaning voters did not vote in any large numbers. and unless they get behind whomever is the final Democratic candidate, it will be the boomers like me that will determine the election. Trump will be hard to beat because his voting base has been convinced by the Conservative Republicans that the Democrats are a existential threat to America. The Democratic ticket need to be just to the left of the center in order to attract the votes needed. But then, unless the candidates are radically left, the young voters are likely to stay home again.
11
@Jeff So those young voters did not turn out to help flip the House in 2018, either. Got it.
1
I wonder how Biden will fare full time on the campaign trail if he is nominated. He just on Saturday mixed up another state he was in -- Ohio when it was Iowa. Warren won't be able to live down her absurd $52 trillion health plan. Realistically, Sanders won't get enough delegates. Buttigieg as well won't make it due to lack of support. Any way you look at it, the Democrats will be limping toward the finish line, and the VP pick won't be enough, either. Personally, I think that Gabbard is the best of the lot, but she, too, has too little support in the party.
11
You lost me at "Gabbard". She has the distinction of being the only candidate in the race who makes Trump look relatively sane and competent. And that's saying something.
1
Sen. Warren is the best candidate in the mix. She has a plan, can articulate it clearly, think on her feet and more importantly authentic. I wouldn’t give any credence to any of these polls at this point. I don’t think she has gotten visibility to full electorate. In any head to head debate with Trump, she will carry the day anytime.
6
Dear progressives, Stop talking about changing the electoral college. It's not happening. Stop telling moderate, centrist Americans what's good for them. They're not buying it. Biden can win and Warren can't. It is what it is. Time for adults to make hard choices
36
@ron l
What you call "moderate, centrist Americans" is what people in other major democratic nations call "far right wingers".
5
@ron l
A million recommends. Having said that, we could be looking at a hung convention. If joe cannot win on the First ballot, the superdelegates may not feel comfortable giving it to him on the second.
It could get crazy inMillwaukee.
2
@ron l
Amen!
Contrary to Fourteen, Warren will be toast for Trump. Why? Because most Democrats outside of the progressive wing of the Democratic party have increasingly distanced themselves from Warren's policies. Only democratic socialist Bernie Sanders vigorously supports Warren's policies!
In short, Warren will be a divisive Presidential candidate if the Democratic Party foolishly nominates her as their Presidential candidate. Given stakes involved in the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election, Warren's political acumen has been abysmal. After all, why needlessly alienate hundreds of thousands of people who work in the health industry by advocating the elimination of all private health insurance when your own party doesn't even support it at all? As for Warren's current support for reparations to native Americans, at this critical juncture of our nation's history, Warren's political priorities are terribly misplaced. Warren has dug herself into a hole by her advocacy of Medicare-for-all, to presumably to outflank Bernie Sanders Medicare-for-all proposal. So how can the Democratic Party vitally remain united in the 2020 Presidential election if only the progressive wing of the party enthusiastically supports her? A Warren Presidential nomination by the Democratic Party is a prescription for political suicide by it. To reach out to conservative Democrats, Independents and those disaffected Republicans like Max Boot, Democrats have to nominate a candidate with broad appeal.
17
@john-anthony: Why do you sound like a Republican operative? Your comment is just what the republican shadow advisors are saying. Either you're a republican plant or haven't a clue as to what will be necessary for a Democrat to win this election.
6
@Jeff I am a Democrat and have never voted for a Republican. I live in NY but most of my family lives either in the Midwest or South. Elizabeth Warren's medicare for all proposal is a turn off to all Democrats outside of NY that I know...and to many I know in NY. The party is going to far left and if it doesn't move more to the center, we will suffer with four more years of Trump. I am not a Republican operative and predict a huge loss for the Democrats if Warren is our candidate.
6
@Jeff
Well, if there's anyone who doesn't have a clue as to what it will take for the Dems to win an election, it's the Dems.
2
2016 was a close election, and since then we will have had some large number of older folks die and some large number of younger folks come of voting age, both of which should move things to the dems' advantage.
Why doesn't it show more in the polling?
And, by the way, how did all that polling stuff turn out in 2016??
Let's not waste too much time chasing apparitions. Get Out The Vote - Especially the Youth Vote!
13
Best news I’ve had all day (except the record stock highs).
MAGA 2020
18
@stan
It’s a phony market. If you know that, then you’re one of the fraudsters. If you don’t, then you’re one of the chumps.
You tell me.
3
@Lefthalfbach
Nothing phony about record low employment, best economy in decades, China tariffs pouring billions into the treasury, manufacturing jobs, stock market making all time highs. My IRA is at an all time high. Trump has been the best thing for the USA.
I have to laugh at your comment though. The pundits all said the stock market would crash if Trump got elected. Quite the contrary. Our economy is the envy of the world. If that wasn’t true, you wouldn’t have the millions of illegals from all over the world trying to pour in here. Prepare for 4 more years. Myself and millions of others plan to support and get him re elected. MAGA and KAG 2020 and beyond!
11
If the treasury is bursting with the proceeds
of the China tariffs that Americans are
paying, then why has the deficit grown to a
trillion dollars. The tax cut I didn’t get any part of, may be part of that story. But as you
say your IRA hasn’t soared like this since
2008, it is probably time to get out of the
market. Hop in the RV and MAGA
but don’t forget that bumper sticker you get such a kick out of, you know, the one about spending your kids’ inheritance.
3
Then lets hope Warren wins the nomination over Biden, allowing Trump to be re-elected as President of the United States
14
Great analysis, Nate, and by all. Please keep them coming.
The results don't surprise us, I guess. The solid trump voter will vote for him even if he shoots someone on Fifth Avenue. But the probable closeness of this election means that Dems are going to have to try to "sheep dog" the few Dem voters who stray to trump, if, say, Warren appears too liberal for them.
The key is the large density of dots in the "Too Liberal" column in the Biden/Warren preference table. It's not surprising. As you say, it suggests some work for Warren. But another piece of supporting evidence goes back to Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, all of whom are great presidents, but received some grief from the Left.
The "Reagan Realignment" began with Jimmy Carter, who leaned to the center, maybe center-right. Teddy Kennedy and his supporters had an issue with that. After Reagan, Bill Clinton got Republicans to vote for him. And Obama took some grief from the Left for his calculated, but effective strategy.
Warren should study these three, fine presidents.
1
@Charles
Clinton and Obama are the reason we have Trump. Fine presidents indeed...
7
We see that Warren ha smoked too far to he left thanks to Bernie. The majority are not in favor of abolishing private health insurance. I’m going to wait for a poll after the next debates, but it’s not worth the risk of nominating Warren or Sanders. We all knew Hillary was vulnerable and we didn’t listen. Let’s not repeat the mistake in 2016 or the 1980s.
10
@Rojo
Polls show most Americans are in favor of medicare for all, although the concerted misinformation campaign conducted by the right (including Biden, etc) has reduced its popularity somewhat.
5
@Yasha
Trust me when I say most Americans DO NOT want Medicare for all. Why would 80 million seniors want the Medicare program flooded with 350 million more people? 80% coverage will turn into 30 or 40% coverage and many doctors will drop out of covering Medicare patients. No thank you! I’ve paid into Medicare my entire working career, sometimes as both an employee and employer. If you think I will support having illegals and every other person who can fog a mirror in the system, you are sadly mistaken. And I can assure you I will vote for Trump because of this along with many others who don’t necessarily like Trump but don’t plan on having Medicare turn into Medicaid for All.
5
@Sven Gall
Most American don’t want to pay thousands a year for
“ insurance” not lose their home when they get sick.
2
Trump is focused like a laser on the state's that matter in the electoral equation. As much as I like Warren, she will scare the states that matter into another 4 years of--I can't even bring myself to type it...SIGH...
10
I thought Wisconsin would be more pro-Trump than Michigan. Guess I should keep myself better informed
1
@Doug
I read recently that Wisconsin has suffered the loss of 7k manufacturing jobs during Trump’s term; Michigan has not. Wisconsin dairy farmers are in dire straits, operations being disbanded and farms sold off and no help from TRump like he’s given to the farmers. Again, Michigan hasn’t suffered that way. I don’t feel good about the Dems prospects in Michigan, the auto workers who voted for TRump are ready to do it again.
8
Landline telephone surveys are the bastion of old retirees. Who do you think these FOX News watching seniors might vote for? Ignored.
4
My takeaway? In spite of the clear corruption, the degradation of our environment, the tax cuts for the rich, the weird obsession with his daughter, the brown children in cages, etc., white people will once again collectively vote for Trump, regardless of all the danger and negativity that he embodies.
8
Attention, please. Election polls are no longer reliable because people on the phone started to lie. Those who vote for Trump are ashamed to say that they vote for Trump. This is because those who vote for Trump (and generally for extreme right wing candidates) know that they are following their lowest and most destructive instincts. That is why polls around the world no longer capture the real voting intentions of certain types of voters. Such a phenomenon should be studied by psychologists and sociologists.
2
@Alfredo
It is...named after a LA mayoral candidate.
3
Can one take solace in the fact that Upshot gave Hillary an 85% chance of winning in 2016 based on pre-election polls?
6
1. Nonvoters and undervoters gave the election to Trump
2. Donald Trump is in a fluid impeachment/tax news cycle
3. After 2016 I like my polls served with a side of salt
5
The chart "What different types of voters said" is kind of scary: it shows that uneducated white voters have more clout than all other groups combined.
That they are actually voting against their own interests (economically at least) is also pretty wild.
8
The reason that some of you readers on these posts are so shocked and dismayed how another Trump term can happen, "after all this", is because you folks only talk to each other, and Trump supporters will not tell you they are Trump supporters, because they want to have friends and a peaceful life with no divorce. I believe people lie about Trump even to their spouses. Nobody ever got disinvited to a party because they support a Democrat, even if the party is full for Trump supporters. The reverse is most assuredly not true.
26
Keep in mind that Trump's strongest attacks on Joe Biden have come to nothing--except impeachment.
Trump can't beat Joe Biden even if he cheats.
Dems need a candidate with the following qualities
1. Political Stature
2. Resilience
3. Broad General Election Appeal
4. Experience
5. Character
Hey, that's Joe Biden!
Don't risk a squeaker with Warren; too many people will be hurt if Trump gets four more years . . .
7
This article is frightening. If Trump wins again our country will sink down into a third world pesthole. I have lived in this state for 15 years and have gotten to know a lot of people. I was in a discussion the other day with half a dozen college-educated people who vote Republican. They don't like Trump any more than I do, but they all said that they are sick of the Democrats disrespecting them and never bothering to campaign down here. There are many intelligent people here who are tired of being treated like they aren't even Americans by the Democratic Party. I wrote a letter to the DNC in 2016 and explained to them that they are missing the boat by not campaigning here. I was ignored. I guess I shouldn't have told them I'm a Progressive, since the DNC doesn't seem to like progressive Democrats any more than they like Republicans.
7
So those people think Trump is not disrespecting them? By abuse of his powers, the constitution, by inviting foreign governments, by alienating our allies, destroying our earth, supporting the billionaires..odd, very odd.
4
A desperately tragic situation as this administration is a disaster for democracy, constitutional government, and the environment. With four more years, Trump will leave America a hollow shell. What truly makes Trump unique among American presidents, besides being a likely Russian agent, is that he makes absolutely no effort to be a president for all Americans. He is only president for his base. It’s sad and demoralizing.
9
Warren, as much as I like her, is unelectable against Trump. She would never gain all the states that Hillary won. Nevada is just one that would be impossible for her. Even New Hampshire, which Hillary won, is a question mark, although it borders on Warren's Massachusetts. It's impossible to even suggest that to Warren enthusiasts, especially if they are feminists from my generation (I'm 66). Warren could never win the Electoral College.
14
@Mason
Famous last words...
@Mason She promised to ban fracking on day one, so that means she loses Pennsylvania, Ohio, maybe Colorado, probably Michigan. And also puts 2.5 million people out of work. Then her MFA his another million or more jobs. So, it seems likely that she can't win.
7
Uneducated whites decided the last election. They will decide the next election too unless the Democratic Party can inspire more potential voters to actually cast a ballott in 2020.
9
Winning the Presidency is the key and democrats have to be reminded how miserable life has been with Donald in the WH. Neither lefty nor righty will elect the president and it is voters in the middle select the winner. Democrats can not take a chance with socialists who may hand a winnable election right back to Trump for the 2nd term.
4
Is North Carolina really a battleground state?
1
@Doug the governor is a Democrat, Obama won it in 2008, and barely lost it in '12. It's in play though it still leans slightly red.
4
In midsummer 1988, Dukakis was drubbing H W Bush by comfortable double digits. Polls at this point are beyond meaningless.
8
Dump trump and the electoral college. One person one vote. Majority wins. If you oppose 4 more years of him, even Mickey Mouse looks good on the ticket.
4
@TG: Um, I guess you don't know that the Electoral College is part of the US Constitution It would take an amendment to the Constitution to get rid of. It isn't going to happen any time soon.
10
Simple equation:
Insist on a "progressive" Democrat who passes all your "progressive" litmus tests, and you're choosing to lose.
If you won't compromise and allow for the fact that millions of Americans who don't like Trump have priorities other than your own -- legitimate priorities -- then you'll see Donald J. Trump being inaugurated for a second term on January 20, 2021.
You can respect the beliefs and wishes of people who aren't exactly like you; you can realize that adults in a society recognize the need for compromise and that nobody gets everything they want all the time; and you can nominate the candidate who checks some of the boxes on your wish list while still appealing to other voters with different wishes -- or you can reprise the feeling on election night 2016 and live with the consequences for another four years.
Your call.
17
Who knows, maybe the deep wisdom of the electorate is going toward Donald Trump. But what I really believe is that the Unites States' luck has finally run out. Considering we almost had Sarah Palin right next to the Oval Office in 2016 with a near-Depression, Trump in power now shouldn't shock anyone, left or right. It's going to be a bloody fall.
4
All I get from this infographic is that Democrats shouldn't waste time campaigning in North Carolina where logic and facts don't seem to matter.
Everything else looks like a tossup.
5
What can I say? The woman who rather vote for Trump over Warren makes me sad. It makes me think sometimes women are their own worse enemy. That is why we have made so little progress. This kind of regressive thinking.
14
If this doesn't persuade you that the Electoral College, an expedient conceived when slaves were deemed to be three-fifths human, needs to be consigned to the scrap heap of history, I don't know what could possibly persuade you.
9
@Manhattanite: I've been of that opinion for the last 50 years. But the reality is that the Electoral College will be instrumental in determining the next President. That means the each and every Democrat and other liberal has to vote for whomever gets the nomination. The failure of liberals to do that in the last election put Trump in the White House.
2
@Jeff
We agree on both counts, Jeff.
This supports the belief that Biden can beat him and the others-- should be able beat him but probably won't. Biden is an imperfect candidate but a good man and I will take him over the traitor Trump. We can't risk losing this election gambling on on candidates like Warren and Sanders--they are too reminiscent of Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry.
8
Why is the Times even doing this and why should we bother paying attention to this? Predictions can’t be made a year in advance, let alone in the days before as 2016 showed us.
I find it a bit distracting from what the real issues are.
4
I hope there is a problem with the methodology (does anyone under 40 answer unknown numbers anymore?) because otherwise there is no saving this country from the Fox News prion infecting all the "brains" of those wonderful "white no college women-are-unlikeable' voters".
5
My thoughts exactly. Where are the methods?
1
@John Paul Henry at the very bottom of the article there's a link at "full cross-tabs and methodology are available here" (I'd post the link but I assume the NYT censors auto-screen that sort of thing).
So Biden is actually still the best bet. Duh.
3
America is lost
2
To paraphrase H.L. Mencken: No one ever lost money underestimating the stupidity of the American people. No politician lost an election because of it.
4
easy solution you want someone in the middle then it is mayor Pete. He is articulate bright and quick on his feet. He brings youth and someone new. Americans aren't very smart and just love new shining things which Pete would bring. . (Just think of Clinton - the most qualified candidate to every run for president in my lifetime but Americans were to concerned about her ankles.)
And if people think the gay issue will be a problem all we need to do is start posting commercials that if we had a first lady in the white house who posed nude for money then the country can elect a educated moral gay man. (the photos are still on the internet today. Can you image if this was any other first lady - the right would be going nuts about their boys being able to google these nude pictures.)
8
@lisa
Zero minority support.
3
@Lisa It's not about him being gay. It is about his only experience being running, rather poorly, a very small city where he was elected with about 5,000 votes. He should be working his way up through higher offices and thinking about the future.
10
This is an example of atrocious use of statistics. You are comparing someone who currently has the full backing of his party (President Trump) against people who haven’t captured the nomination of their party. No, questions like “if X were the Democratic nominee, how would you vote?” do not mitigate that as the partisan bandwagon effect is asymmetric until someone is formally nominated. So, this survey underestimates the support of any of the Democratic hopefuls. Seems like the media hasn’t learned from 2016, when the polls were dead on and the media was dead wrong, or from India and Australia this year when the same was true.
2
I'm confused. Yesterday, FiveThirtyEight added a head-to-head poll of registered voters in Michigan, Warren against Trump. Sample size, 1051. In that poll, Warren leads Trump by seven points (54-46). The poll was conducted by Emerson College, which has a B+ pollster rating on the site.
I'm confident that the Times' polling was at least as thorough as Emerson's, but that's still an eleven point difference between the two. Such a spread seems to tell a much different story than the one painted here.
I'm not a master statistician, but isn't this the kind of one-off polling that gave everyone the wrong idea in 2016? Or am I missing something?
5
Its too bad that Warren tied herself to medicare for all. If she had gone with fine tuning the ACA plus a public option I think she could have the election sewed up. But many people are not supportive of medicare for all. I think she could be a good president except for that.
8
Why not require EMPLOYERS to pay for migrant labor healthcare? Why not sanction employers who hire undocumented workers? The demand for labor is there - leverage that and employers would lobby for the visas and green cards required. Pulling up wages at the bottom would benefit the pay of the lower rungs of US workers. Supply and demand. Ensure the quality of life of migrants, including field workers, rather the trying to maximize the number and flood the market with cheap exploitable labor, taking advantage of the human tendency to want to risk all for the jackpot.
Yet no Democrats I have heard have ever mentioned this idea. It's the difference between a rational long term plan and simply reacting headline by headline.
Trump is for the status quo with added cruelty. Joe is for status quo without the overt cruelty (similar to Obama). Liz is open borders, more or less. None are for normalizing employment via e-verify and giving those workers a legal baseline. Liberal opportunity lost.
1
Is that even a question? Go after companies that hire illegal immigrants? Is the American way. Labor exploitation. Heck look around you it is happening to Americans too.
Based on the article a Biden/Klobuchar ticket would make sense. Klobuchar is popular in the midwest, is moderate and practical in her views on issues like health care, is a "non-angry" woman, and is considerably younger than Biden. I like Mayor Pete's energy, intellect, moderate views, and feisty disposition, but sadly his sexual orientation won't work with Bible thumping, non-college educated voters in the Electoral College critical heartland.
Maybe Biden gets Klobuchar to join him on the ticket by agreeing to serve only one term (I believe Biden would be 81 at the end of a potential first term) and then stepping aside and supporting her for president in 2024.
I still have horrible memories of the 1972 election when the democrats nominated a progressive candidate--George McGovern. Nixon won re-election in a landslide.
Progressive democrats need to realize that things like Medicare for All, free public college tuition, and student loan debt forgiveness have no reasonable likelihood of becoming law in the next four years (probably not even in the next decade), and these proposals are very unpopular in the half dozen or so swing states that will decide the next presidential election. By supporting candidates who support these views we democrats will be inadvertently increasing the probability that Trump wins re-election in 2020.
8
@Monta1052 Your memories are dead on. The parallels are too obvious to ignore. After four years of Nixon, with the Vietnam War and everything else going on, people thought he was a dead duck and look what happened. Its pure craziness to take a chance on something so important. There is too much at stake. The safe candidate is the right candidate, as much as I personally like E. Warren.
The questions is really, how do you measure the likely voters!
Corporate media is doing its best to fight a popular movement. We heard these things 4 years ago.
Elect someone with a plan to re calibrate our democracy. Obama had 8 years and failed and that is the only reason we have Trump.
Income inequality, corporate control of our government and institutions is at at heart of the problem. If we don't address that, things will get a lot worse!
1
Quote an interesting analysis.
Dems have been barking up the wrong tree with their monomaniac focus on scandals and impeachment.
Here in Midwest, likely voters care about the issues that Trump raises; it shows in these polls.
4
This is why Trump is desperate to discredit Biden; he sees him as the only one who could beat him. It's time to take a better look at the second tier candidates like Tom Steyer. I could see him or Biden with Klobuchar as a running mate. That is a ticket the middle class could accept.
5
If an electoral-majority of our citizens are plainly foolish or myopic enough to return Mr. 45 to office (presuming he is not removed in the meanwhile), then we have more than sadly reached the point where the larger collective hopes and dreams of and for this republic have vanished.
Our futures, it seems, are in the hands of our fellow citizens from the "swingiest" of swing states: PA, MI, and WI. May Providence and the stars grant them peace, give them pause and guide them.
The future of the planet depends upon it.
1
"Punitive" and "confiscatory" are two words that come to mind for too many at the idea of Warren as president.
Americans don't like punitive and confiscatory.
5
How are the polls that yield these results conducted?
Assuming that these are random, telephone-based surveys, how do the pollsters adjust for the ever-increasing number of voters who no longer answer calls from unrecognized telephone numbers?
CallerID, the internet, robocalls, invasion of privacy, insurance companies determined to get everyone on Medicare to buy supplemental coverage...
Perhaps there is some reason why Trump supporters are more likely to answer all telephone calls than are people who think a second term for Trump would be a waking nightmare.
4
I can’t believe the left doesn’t understand this. Blue collar workers in the rust belt will be unemployed with all of the lefts proposed climate legislation, not to mention increasing their taxes/regulations. Blue states will be blue, red states will be red, but the Rust Belt and battleground states will win it again for Trump in 2020.
11
How is the coal industry doing under Trump?
6
@JOSEPH
Mr. Trump has declared that climate change is a scam, perpetrated by the Chinese.
California is on fire.
In fifty years half of our third most populous state, Florida, will be under water.
How do jobs in Michigan and Pennsylvania dovetail with a billion displaced people around the world looking for a place to live?
What disasters are we willing to pass on to our children and grandchildren?
10
Please folks, read the writing on the wall. Vote for Biden. He isn't as exciting as Warren, I'll admit. But here's the thing--she'd never get her programs through Congress, anyway. They're too big and will scare most people, even if she's right, and I believe that she is.
Getting Trump out of office is the only thing that matters.
21
You are correct. Her programs will never pass Congress even if the Senate flips. They are pipe dreams
4
@concerned
The President, through executive branch agencies, doesn’t need approval from Congress to file an antitrust action, charge a financial institution with fraud, or enforce any other existing law. People appear to be unfamiliar with Warren’s background and priorities.
2
I don’t believe this poll. It’s a clear outlier. Someone needs to check the methodology.
There is no way Biden and Trump are that close in PA.
There is no way Warren is losing to Trump by 6 in Michigan.
Similarly, it is unlikely that given these numbers in PA and MI that Trump is so close in NC. He should be up by 10 in NC based on his over performance in Dem leaning swing states.
1
Vote for the candidate most likely to beat Trump. If this poll holds true, then the best chance is Biden. Maybe Klobuchar or another appealing moderate as his running mate will sweeten the deal. But realism must prevail. The only way to get rid of Trump is to vote him out. Impeachment won’t do it.
10
Reading first the expected news that Trump will pull us from the Paris Accord and then this article is deeply depressing. As someone who works in the climate field and sees every day the effects on human and wild populations already present and the predictions for what is to come, the idea that Trump might be re-elected is just stunning. I still believe that the majority of his supporters, if they truly understood what we are up against, would choose to NOT support him. But the cynical effort to keep people from understanding is working all too well.
13
These results are very troubling. I am a pro-Warren voter. I believe that she would make many branches of government function better, such as the Consumer Protection Bureau which has been crippled by Trump. She would help other agencies as well, such as the Departments of Labor, of Health and Human Services and the Attorney General, to name only a few of the Cabinet Offices.
I do see that as popular as she is, I believe her Health Care Plan upsets many people, including me. I believe her plan would probably work, but the idea of making people give up their current private insurance draws a huge negative in the voting public.
Warren needs to tell the truth which is that it is unlikely that she would be able to pass her plan as a whole. She needs to say she will improve our current plan, the ACA. I believe she needs to get real about Congress's willingness to approve any health care plan lock, stock and barrel.
I am sure she knows the odds of getting her bell through Congress, so she should propose something she thinks she can get through Congress. Then some of the people who can't quite bring themselves vote for her will find that they are more likely to check her name on the ballot.
3
The truth is that the U.S. has a crazy electoral system, which allows to win to the candidate who takes fewer votes.
But there is worse.
Such an electoral system, in fact, elevates some states above the others. So the candidates focus, in the election campaign, only on some states. Trump doesn't care about California (and California burns). And democratic candidates don't care about other states. This is the denial of democracy, in which every vote should be worth one.
11
@Alfredo
The Founders never intended a pure democracy, and for 200 years we were much the better off for it.
3
The 2016 Election taught us that polls are not to be trusted. We do not need a forgetful, gaffe-prone man who would turn 80 during his time in the White House, especially one who says and expects us to believe that he never discussed with his son what his son was doing in Ukraine. Go bold! Go Buttigieg!
9
This is a very comprehensive and convincing bit of polling analysis by Cohn. Excellent work.
3
People mention the 2016 polling had Hillary winning...well she may have, if not for the last minute antics of James Comey.
Also, who actually responds to these polls, particularly if done by phone. i am far from alone in stating that I don't answer calls from unrecognized numbers. I am thinking the respondents are heavily skewed towards the elderly. Same group that watches Fox News all day.
14
I seriously cannot believe we are still exactly where we started. Without a candidate who shows a clear way forward to a win.
8
Several of the comments seem typical of how people I know feel about things, specifically with respect to Sanders' and Warren's candidacy. They view the inclination toward socialism with alarm, especially the hostile takeover of medicine by the government who they believe would botch it up. Americans in general hope that people will take care of themselves except in exceptional circumstances. Personal responsibility is (mostly) a shared American trait. The Democrats should take a lot of time studying this poll...it should help them a lot.
8
@SinNombre Hostile takeover? Everything remains the same, but the government pays the doctors, nurses and hospitals via taxes. Think of it like public education, police, libraries, roads, the military. We pool our resources for the good of society.
7
@Sue Salvesen I honestly hope that it works as smoothly as you say, should it come to pass. I can't say that I would miss insurance companies since I can't for the life of me see what value they add to the situation. However, I worry that with such control over medicine that politics will somehow worm its ugly way into how it is practiced and distributed.
4
Hostile takeover of medicine has already occurred by the rapacious greed of the insurance industry and the pharmaceutical cabal.
2
And if there's one thing we can trust in politics, it's polling. Thanks for the insight.
4
The DNC sponsors a program called Organizing Corps, where young people in key states are trained to become campaign organizers. They are focusing on people of color, which from what I am reading, is very important. They are growing in numbers, and I hope that they achieve the momentum to get the vote out big time. Good luck and success to you all! Lots of people are not even included in these polls yet!
6
Warren or Sanders need to drop out soon as they siphon votes from each other. They also need to shift to more moderate stances on many issues.
I say this as I want trump defeated as he is a divisive and destructive force in this country
11
I would like to see Sherrod Brown jump in right now and begin campaigning with a well-known possible VP. He is Centrist but not afraid of Progressive. I like Kamala Harris a lot but she is a black woman and I don’t believe she would be nominated or can win in the general election. Trump would shrink from her however.
S Brown has the credentials-an attractive man and we know Americans like that-we’re shallow that way. Pete is a millennial-that’s just a big “nope” for me. Ten years from now -maybe. Need an experienced candidate to win and clean up the mess. It will take someone who knows how to maneuver on the Hill. Nobody close to 80 thank you! I know that era only too well. I worry about women’s rights and our minorities and Climate Change!
1
What is most disconcerting to me is the number of people, particularly women, who find women candidates not "likable".
For anyone who does not believe we have systematic misogyny in this country, wake up. I'm more depressed than ever over this particular category in the last chart.
17
@Sue Salvesen I roll my eyes when these people complain about Warren being unlikeable. Seriously? Compared to Donald Trump, a rabid wolf is likeable.
4
How can we please enough followers to abandon Trump when nothing in his behavior discourages them? In seeking the lowest common denominator do we run the risk of abandoning our own values and democracy itself?We must not do that. Only Trump can deliver his followers to us . If he continues on his present course he may well do it.
1
Since it was announced today that the U.S. is leaving the Paris climate accord that all nuclear waste, oil and gas exploration and coal related pollution is concentrated in the states and cities that support Trump and Republican majorities. You want a climate denier as president then you live with consequence of your decisions. Ditto for California. Kern County, get ready for LA to dump all toxic was in Bakersfield. Live and die by Mr. Trump. Ditto for Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and any state and city where the people vote for him. Eat it, and die by how you vote.
3
Michelle Goldberg, in these very pages, sets out the unassailable fact that Trump was, knowingly or not, but certainly enthusiastically, fostering the interests of the Russian mob and Russian intelligence agents with deep connections to his own campaign, in his meddling in Ukraine. He will certainly be impeached for this. My guess is that the pining by Very Serious People for the Reasonable Centrist instead of some hectoring woman whose policies of economic equality actually align with a majority of voters will look kind of silly.
1
People should not underestimate Trump. He has a powerful cult of personality and his supporters are highly motivated. If your 35% or 40% support is spread out in the right states and turn out to vote with religious fervor, you can win if the opposition don't show up to vote at the same rate.
Right now, there are a lot of people who "don't like Trump" but still cannot be bothered to lift a finger. There is also the left's perpetual commitment to forming a circular firing squad. By the time the Democratic primaries are voter, I wonder how many Trump opponents will stay home or vote third party just to spite each other.
13
biden,
a loss of caricature in his own words;
who could barely smile without cracking a gravity
imposed grimace,
who wears shades and displays them even when
the dark and empty side doesn't need them.
unreal, to even think he could carry the democratic party.
if trump is free and clear for 2020,
he will STEAM ROLL biden;
there would be luck if biden was even close in the national vote, much less the electorate.
sorry, but you can't pull the schmooz over for what you see in biden, is pretty much what you get,
an empty orator at best;
and a dialogue deluge of political establishment that rusted over 40 years ago, at political best.
5
I'm a Democrat.
I'm a Democrat.
I'm a Democrat -- NEVER voted Republican.
To: Warren & Sanders -- say out of this. We need someone who can win in the swing states, and this is NOT you.
I don't care about the Bernie Bros or the Warren Medicare plan.
This is about GETTING RID OF TRUMP.
All the rest can follow, only if he is gone.
Don't let the Twitter & Facebook 20-somethings who control the Times comments section and the internet volume destroy chances to get rid of this monster.
Do NOT nominate some leftist Democrat. This is not the time.
Michelle Obama: where are you?
17
@rumcow
It's only smoldering.
Have to get real angst on it to set it ablaze.
Go again.
1
Those of you who want Warren as your nominee are simply delusional. Because you believe that a woman should be the nominee, you are willing to jeopardize the next four years in the name of ideology. She cannot and will not defeat Trump.
13
If all the voters on the left, who chose not to vote in 2016 because of their certainty that Hilary couldn’t possibly loose to a buffoon like Trump, wake up and add their vote against him in 2020, it’ll likely be a landslide win for the Democrats, regardless of the nominee.
5
Too early to tell. Let's see how the polls look after the impeachment. I'll support whoever wins the primary. And I will vote blue up and down the ballot to get the current corruption in our gov't cleaned up. Our democracy really is at stake and that is something that should concern every American no matter what your political preferences are. The current state of our federal gov't is unsustainable.
5
Polls one year out are basically meaningless. The polls in late October 2016 proved that beyond a doubt. Polls do however, serve one purpose - to raise money for the candidates.
2
Can we all agree that Trump is insane and delusional and his mental deterioration is accelerating rapidly?
If so polls are irrelevant. I don't know just how crazy Trump will be in a year from now, but it will be much, much crazier than he is today.
18
As far as I can tell this article is intended to push the "moderate is the only way" which would keep the Businesses happy and less in fear of big tax increases. Is the NY Times really going along with this? Moderates don't win. Gore, Kerry, Hillary Clinton. All losers. Biden is a two time loser for a reason. Trump as someone said was UNELECTABLE yet he was elected. Stop this destructive nonsense about electability. I hear and read so much positive about Warren from people who have seen her and listened to her and been LISTENED TO by Warren. I like Bernie, though not my choice, Buttigieg is interesting but Biden and Klobuchar with their we can work with Republicans fantasy are just going to give us more of the same which is what people didn't want in 2016.
People want real change, if you want excited voters to drive turnout try the candidates with progressive positive ideas that would benefit everyone. Unless there is a will to change the tenor of our debates and correct the inequality that is killing everything in our country then we might as well accept serfdom and be happy with whatever crumbs the rich/Republicans deign to allow us.
Remember the Republicans have NO programs to propose that benefit any of us except the rich or racist. NONE whatsoever. No healthcare, no education, no infrastructure, no immigration plan except be afraid, no plan for the environment other than to burn it up for cash money in the pocket today, NO solutions to today's urgent problems.
17
@DRTmunich
Considering that other recent polls show Biden way ahead of Trump in places like Michigan and Wisconsin, I think this poll does the opposite of what you suggest.
To me it leans towards the idea that things are up for grabs among candidate when other polls are a great deal stronger for Biden.
This poll actually is an outlier compared to the other 2 recent polls and is not anywhere as favorable to Biden
The two other Michigan polls have him at +10 and + 12
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
The other two Wisconsin polls have him at +6 and +9
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_biden-6849.html
6
It’s really sad that you are standing around waiting for programs to help you. Programs funded by other people. Why not go out and help yourself? You know, personal responsibility?
2
Don’t forget that after the 2016 poll fiasco many Trump supporters consider polls fake news and will now purposely state that they support Democrats to sabotaging the pollsters further.
8
Small request: please look at NE 2nd and ME 2nd as potential swing "states" next time. Those two EC votes could be pivotal and are a lot cheaper to pursue than marketing to a giant state like Florida.
5
Check out the people surveyed. (You'll have to click on the microscopic link at the bottom of the article for the methodology.) The majority are older than 45...the majority are white...the majority are not college educated. So, white, older, uneducated voters prefer Trump...
No surprise.
The Dems HAVE to invigorate Millenials to ensure victory. Biden doesn't do that.
10
It’s all about culture wars. I find it disturbing and depressing that voters care less about Trump’s corruption, incompetence, possible treason, affinity with dictators, malignant narcissism, corporate welfare, willful ignorance and utter lack of empathy than they do about his giving them the disgusting things they want: white Christian male supremacy, disdain for expertise, validating xenophobia, protection against gun regulations, the ability to pollute to their hearts’ content and anti-abortion/socially conservative judges. But this is the America we live in now. God help our children.
9
The thing you have to remember about America is that so many people love gangsters, porn, drugs, infidelity and violence. And, not everyone thinks treason is a bad thing. That's why Trump's sexual predations, his criminal behavior, and his incitements to violence are so well received. The constant lies, the maniacal tweeting and the daily proof of his growing insanity plays well in Peoria. In short, many people in our heartland love the chaos and love seeing everything good about America dragged through the muck and the mire. In the end though, the great silent majority of good and decent people will prevail.
7
This time, don't allow Trump cheat, lie and fake his way to the White House, again. But, be careful, he is definitely very good at them.
2
I'm a life long Democrat and I can't even find a candidate I like. We'll never win the election with the current candidate line up. Never. Democracy will then be lost within one year. Get out the vote is a great goal, but who would anyone vote for with the current line up. It's a set up to get less voters not more.
8
From this poll, the electoral results are easy to extrapolate--even if we assume Warren would win Arizona:
Biden vs. Trump
318 - 220
Warren vs. Trump
243 - 295
If your main concern is NOT having four more years of Don, it's pretty clear who the nominee should be. If your main concern is that now is the best time to push far-left ideals (as they're generally perceived), it comes at the risk of four more years of Trump.
18
What this tells us is the country is extremely divided and in trouble no matter who is elected. WE are divided because we are no longer king of this hill named earth.
Those "who have" are tired of giving up to those who don't and not getting satisfactory results from their efforts.
Those "who don't have" want to keep receiving an effort by the country to make their lives better.
Where we failed is we spent the money, but insufficiently measured results and made adjustments to our actions so we wo.uld attain our goals. In other words, over the past fifty years or so we spent the money trying to get results, but no one bothered to closely monitor how it was being spent so much of it was wasted.
Further Citizens United and gerrymandering allowed elected officials to get reelected despite getting the results desired. Shame on us and now the chickens have come home to roost.
1
Donald changes the rules at will about everything presidential so maybe the rules can be changed to allow Mr. Obama to run again :) No polls needed President Obama wins 88.7% of the vote.
On a more serious note: Joseph Patrick Kennedy III please enter the race. Joe delivered last year's great Democratic response to President Donald Trump's State of the Union.
He has what the other Democratic nomination candidates don't - charisma! Some might be smart but are too old. Some are too much to the left. Please someone a little left of center with a personality run.
1
This article backs up a previous article in The New York Times about 2 weeks ago from Moody analytics which says trump is on the path to an electoral landslide. The only candidate that has a chance is Biden. Basically trump only has to win around 45% of the vote according to Nate silver and the right States and he can easily win the electoral college. If trump is running against Warren with all her far left plans there's going to be about 6 States that love it and the rest of the country even if they don't like trump are going to hold their nose and vote droves for trump are not vote Warne is the equivalent a Berry go water running against LBJ Goldwater ran on the saying in your heart you know hes right and I was right for about 35% of the population that loved it but LBJ ranch won in a landslide.
3
I would vote for a potted plant if they were running against Trump. I can't believe that anyone would vote for him unless they believed the world is flat (and climate change is not a threat), or that the key to ending gun violence is more guns, or that the Republicans have a health care plan. I guess there are many American voters who do believe those things and if Trump is reelected they will get the America, and world, they deserve.
1
All the Democrats need to do to win in a landslide is to nominate a moderate, however flawed.
Warren is that not person.
13
It'slightly more than a few days before the election. It's almost a year before the election and the full open discussion in the impeachment. It's a few months before the first primaries and the winter storms in the country. It's too early to say anything about either parties. This is space filling by the politicos in America.
It’s sad that this race is even this close. You can blame the far left and it’s woke politics.
The only way to beat trump is to attack him from the right and show Democrats are more fiscally responsible and strong on security.
Listen to the Democrats living in rural red areas and not the coastal progressives.
9
Why is Amy Klobuchar being overlooked? According to Wikipedia she has generally been in line with modern American
Liberalism...pro-choice, LGBT rights, and Obamacare, was
critical of Iraq war. Passed more legislation than any other
senator, by the end of 2016.
Amy Klobuchar has what it takes to win the mid west and
make Trump a one term president!
7
She’s being overlooked because the Democrats have been taken over by far left socialists who probably won’t even show up on Election Day to vote.
13
@Amy Glynn, because she has not been polling as well as the top 4, not even close.
1
Obviously, at some point, either Sanders or Warren will drop out, and their voters will migrate to the other candidate. Then THAT candidate will be formidable.
2
The way it seems, for all Biden's shortcomings he maybe the candidate to beat Trump. A moderate ( Biden ) and a progressive ( Warren ) could be the ticket to win. But Warren may have to tone down a little and be a little more malleable instead of absolute obstinacy. Her do or die attitude will only hurt her not not mention a loss in the National Elections.
2
That Trump, even now, could be competitive against Elizabeth Warren, is clear evidence that between ignorance, sexism and racism, our nation is highly capable of acting against its own best interests.
5
Polls discourage me from wanting to vote. My vote in WA doesn’t really matter. All that matters is what a handful of states with a smaller population base wants. We have lost this country. We will become a dictatorship. A lot of people are going to starve and die due to lack of healthcare because an authoritarian regime here will not care.
5
Before people get all excited about this, let's try to remember that to win reelection Trump MUST win all of these battleground states.
Not some, not most. All.
I'm not saying he won't win reelection (and sadly, when I see the endless infighting amongst Democrats, I fully expect that he will), but it's not as simple as saying "Oh look he's within the margin of error so Democrats are doomed."
Until it's over, this thing will remain a contest between America's better angels and its worse ones.
It could turn out either way.
1
economy is good, Trump will be re-elected. Its sadly that simple.
6
Tulsi Gabbard is not even 40 years old, so she has a lot of time ahead of her.But she talks too much about her service in Iraq as a medic, and heroic I might add, but "cela suffit nettement!" At a certain point folks get tired of hearing about so and so's heroism.Have a friend for over 40 years , Notre Dame graduate who joined military in late sixties and was a platoon leader, who led his platoon on patrols in dangerous areas where a landmine could have inflicted serious injury. But he was so taciturn, reluctant to talk about it. Recall my telling him once that I had seen General Westmoreland buying a newspaper, and he said that if he had been there he would have gone up to shake his hand."Il faut chercher a comprendre," since it was Westmoreland who encouraged LBJ to keep sending in troops even after George Ball, Dean Rusk among others knew that the war was lost.
Assuming the NYT polling data in swing states is the best lense through which to look forward one year. To those opposed to Donald Trump and his GOP enablers- regardless of your party affiliation or not. The problem is NOT the choice between Biden, Sanders and Warren. The problem is the American electorate. There are too many of them living in the right places for us to overcome. Trump was right: he could "stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody" and "not lose any voters." There is not a political solution, no magic-bullet nominee to this wretched state of affairs.
2
The most important tasks on the Democratic Progressive agenda are taking back the White House and achieving a majority in the Senate. While there are many issues to address, unless we first accomplish these two tasks, everything else is in jeopardy. We can sort out all the other issues over time if those first two tasks are accomplished. So all should remember, once the primaries have selected candidates the most important items are to get everyone possible of voting age and eligible registered and get them to the polls to cast a ballot. Please do not even consider a third party candidate. We need to apply all our energy, efforts, and muscle to getting control of the White House and the Senate while holding control of the House. We can then commence all the other tasks and battle amongst ourselves about the best paths forward. But another four years of Trump or heaven forbid a continuing Republican majority in the Senate or retaking the House and we, the planet, and all its inhabitants will all be in deep... well, definitely deep fertilizer.
I wish these polls would ask about some other candidates. I realize the top three matter the most, but it would be nice to know how other candidates (Klobuchar for example) would do.
3
I agree that it is important to see the polls in these swing states in addition to national polls. As we learned from 2016, the national polls were terribly inaccurate about Hillary's chances of beating DJT. This only added to the devastating effect of Putin's victory on election day.
1
@SanPride You are wrong the polls turned out to be very accurate. Hillary won the pop vote by a little over 2% and that was around the prediction.
The only game Trump can play is for check mate on the electoral college chessboard. If there is anything proof positive that he can accomplish constitutionally, losing the popular vote and winning the presidential election is it. I don’t believe anyone of sound mind, including some of Trump’s most vociferous supporters, actually pictured the man winning the popular vote. I say it’s still too early to write off the Democrats. The Republican field was scattered about in 2015-2016. I still have faith in the sensibility of the American people, in that they will not hand Trump a popular mandate. It’s simply going to come down to strategy.
1
I know there are state like mine where Trump remains very popular, though I don't really understand why. I also know that this country cannot afford to give him a second term. I'm counting on big turnouts to prevent his winning. Democrats win when they turn out the vote.
11
A good reminder. You win the Presidency by winning the majority of votes in the Electoral College, not by winning the popular vote. Anyone who thinks a Democrat wins simply because "National Polls" has him/her beating Trump is making the same mistake as last time. National polls only measure popular support, not electoral support.
Much has been made of Hillary winning the popular vote. She did ... she had 65.8MM votes, to Trump's 63MM. All of which are explained by California, where she won by 8.7MM to Trump's 4.5MM. But both of these candidates knew well what the rules of the game are.
Trump spent virtually no time at all in California - as he had no chance of winning it. If the popular vote was what won elections, he would have spent a lot more time there.
Indeed, that fact is the reason why the Electoral College exists. If it was solely based on the popular vote, candidates would spend all their time in six or seven states, and likely completely ignore over half the country. The "tyranny of the majority" concept raised to the tenth power.
But whether you agree with the EC or not, Clinton had the sharpest political strategists money could buy, and they well knew the rules. You can't lose the game, and then complain because you would have won if different rules had been used.
Point is, I completely ignore those generic national polls. Or popularity ratings (remember, three years in, Obama's approval was also in the low 40s.)
This poll is a lot closer to what matters.
15
@JRC "If it was solely based on the popular vote, candidates would spend all their time in six or seven states..."
Candidates DO spend all their time - and all their money - in six or seven states - the swing states.
4
@JRC Hillary won the meaningless popular vote, but all those fans who keep calling her the winner of the election don’t take into account that all those winning coattails of hers didn’t bring in a Democratic House or Senate. We lost everything. That is the reason we are in the mess we are in.
4
@JRC Maybe, but as it is now candidates spend all their time in the six or seven states that count based on the EC.
3
So the pundits and pollsters, having cornered that elusive and apparently brainless creature known as the Midwest Swing Voter, issue their proclamations settling the 2020 election. Of course, let's forget they were wrong in 2016. Besotted by their algorithms, they are blind to everything that goes on around them: the possibilities of sudden historical change, the unpredictability of capitalist economics, the everpresent likelihood of global political "shocks", and everything else in the political environment that does not fit their calculations. To them, tomorrow will be just like yesterday with some incremental adjustments. All of it is tiresome pseudoscience. I have no idea what will happen in November 2020. And I'm tired of the Nate Cohns who think they have it all figured out.
7
@Michael Engel
Labeling MIdwest Swing Voters as brainless is the attitude that makes Trump so appealing to Midwest Swing Voters. To your dismay, Midwest Swing Voters are certain to vote, strongly motivated by those who refer to them as brainless.
7
@blgreenie I wasn't making a generic comment, rather an observation about anyone who still is still neutral on the subject of Trump. Love him or hate him--but undecided??? They can't make up their minds????
If polls were accurate HRC would be president.
6
The polls were accurate.
2
Marshall -- yeah, maybe the Fox and Federalist ones.
3
Alas Ukraine and the disclosure thwtbhisnoffice scuttled ethics concerns about his son makes Biden damaged goods. Not that he was someone who would make the undecided get out of bed and vote. Anybody is better than Trump but the current crop of front runners is decidedly shallow and unaooetizing, giving Trump a shot at re-election.
Where is the poll that asks, "Why should trump be reelected?"
5
Pretty annoying that none of the other states matter. The electoral college has done us wrong.
12
Supporters of the three Democrats will combine forces behind one and our national nightmare will be over.
Do not be discouraged. Ordinarily, the news that my favorite Elizabeth Warren is already ahead of treasonous Trump in Arizona would be a major headline.
She advocates for Americans, not Russian oligarchs. Eventually, even Michiganders will appreciate that fact.
8
I am so tired of my vote NOT counting in this SHAM Electoral College for the Hypocrite Republicans. Dems need to be smart and ensure that SOMEONE who can actually win is nominated. We cannot risk another 4 years with this treasonous President and his Servants. Sorry if the over the top progressives are not happy.
We cannot RISK more Supreme Court Tyrants, Federalist Judges and the conspirator Attorney General Barr. We will be DONE!
Our children and grandchildren are too important.
7
Deep inside The NYT despises socialism and also, unrestricted immigration. Just comb through the marvelous articles that are fit to print and make your own opinion. What the paper cares profoundly is one thing: The stock market. All the rest is baloney.
3
After watching near daily tracking polls telling me that it was virtually impossible for Clinton to lose to Trump in 2016, I’ve lost all faith in polls. I think the samples are based on “voters who still use a dial landline”
9
The most striking thing about this is that all three Democratic front runners have less support among Black and Hispanic voters against Trump than Clinton had. This cannot bode well for the Democratic candidate. Even several points of slippage there can be the difference.
8
Are these polls tracking the millions of 17-year-olds who aren’t even yet registered to vote?
5
@Susan Fischer
Talk about a non sequitor and flat nonsense!!
And a 17 year old turning 18 in time to register to vote will vote exactly HOW differently from a registered voter who is 18 years and 2 months old? Than 1 who is 19?
Been hearing this nonsense of "but but but if we can just turn out the teen-twenties voter.....: for over 50 years.
And it has never happened
6
This should be a wake-up call to Dem primary voters.
This primary is not about winning on healthcare, free tuition, or border issues.
This primary--with the past three years in mind--needs to be about winning next November.
5
The only thing more depressing than this story are the comments about which Democratic Party candidate to support linked to it. Do we really want to lose?
1
At this point, so long before the elections, this and any other survey is nothing more than a speculation. Indeed, except for commenting, I haven't spent any time reading it...
2
Trump is a danger to the whole world.
Democrats must take these polls into account.
All running democratic candidates must withdraw immediately and support Biden. Without a doubt. We are at defcon 2. The next elections cannot be lost.
1
This really is about women - it doesn't matter if it's Hilary or Elizabeth - they're women.
5
@Lynn That is how we ended up with Trump. This election, like all, is about the whole country, not one part of it. Must be lots of women who are sick of hearing the rants about how we must have a woman, since they seem to have voted for Trump if they bothered to vote at all. We must have the best, whoever that may be.
7
Biden, for god's sake, Biden.
1
Picking the most centrist candidate worked so well for us in the past. Oh, wait...
3
There will be a revolt like none since the civil war if the electoral college puts a president in against the popular vote again, especially when the majority of Americans have clearly shown they do not support the fascist in office today. The electoral college MUST be abolished if it is going to ignore the will of the American people and disenfranchise millions of American voters.
13
@Margaret
we are a republic, not a democracy. you know the rules by which we choose a president. field a winning candidate. the less-partisan center would like a sane option to Trump. So far, it can be reasonably argued that none has thrown in. that is the problem. stop telling the center that you've got mega-trillion dollar ideas that they know the tax base cannot afford whilst demanding you turn in your guns after a neighbor two blocks over was killed in a push-in robbery.
5
So, the New York Times intentionally split the progressive vote in a survey and, lo and behold, the progressives look pretty bad.
And, the entire latter half of the article is about how Biden supporters don't like Warren.
Why exactly was this story run at all, except to explicitly cast support Joe Biden?
6
Thank you, Elisabeth, You have scared away both the independents and the centrist Democrats.
7
Enough with progressive policies! I don't care enough about everyone having health insurance, free college tuition, illegal immigrants, or income inequality to elect a candidate who can't beat Trump. What I do care about is the environment and climate change. Trump and the Republicans are willfully speeding up our destruction without batting an eye. I'm not willing to sacrifice our planet for someone without health insurance. If we don't save our planet then none of it will matter.
8
Those who are insecure and worried about bills and sickness will not support sacrifices for abstract goods such as fighting climate change.
8
As usual is the will of “We the people “ not of that much interest over there, it’s up to a handful of voters in some rural backward areas.
6
The Times/Siena poll of 3,766 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 13 to Oct. 26. The margin of sampling error for an individual state poll is plus or minus 4.4, except for Michigan at plus or minus 5.1 points. Together, the battleground sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.
The Times/Siena poll of 1,435 registered voters in Iowa was conducted from Oct. 25 to Oct. 30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
This poll is virtually meaningless other than to say no matter the Dem candidate, currently the race is close in these battleground states, at least at this point in time. Concluding literally ANYTHING else has absolutely ZERO evidentiary basis.
3
@Jason. We certainly have less reason to trust any polls after 2016. What I want to know, is which candidate will win the swing states in the Democratic primary? If it’s Joe, fine, give him a progressive running mate.
Tell me again how the Electoral College is so intuitive to our needs as a nation.
Did our Founding Fathers really want this fool to lead our Republic?
3
@ABG
Because it lets that States - independent political organizations - weigh in as a STATE
It is the States that have to implement and often come up with the money for many federal programs -either pay for it without help from the Feds or put in matching percentage
The people of 30 state said NO we don't want what Clinton is selling & we don't want to be California
6
@ABG There is a remedy for this which does not require any constitutional amendment - every state should do what Maine and Nebraska already do - award electoral votes by congressional district, with the state-wide winner getting the bonus 2 electoral votes. It would substantially nationalize the election rather than confining the campaign to 6 - 10 states.
@ABG
Focus dude! The EC isn't going away anytime soon. So instead of crying about things you can't change, focus on what you can change, like not choosing a candidate that is going to get squashed in the general.
3
"As for female presidential candidates in general, she said, “They’re super unlikable.” "
And this woman voted for Trump in 2016. Unbelievable.
We certainly need to get over the likability idiocy, especially women.
I'm not sure of the reason, but even women in this country don't like powerful women. The misogyny is palpable. Perhaps it's TV. Who knows?
THINK women.
7
@Kat. Part of it’s an evangelical thing. Evangelical leaders teach and argue that men should be the leaders.
7
@Kat
Uh, possibly, because they *are* unlikeable.
1
I don’t believe in polls. I believe when Donald got booed at National Park and Madison Square Garden.
5
Yet again I ask Mr Cohn to remember 1980. It was the debates where Ronald Reagan gained his acceptability as a candidate. (I think Warren can hold her own against Trump. Remember the Wells Fargo guy? The one who resigned a week after Warren eviscerated him?). The race was close until the final week when the bottom fell out on Jimmy Carter.
There are several problems that remain possible thorns in Trump’s side: farmers, public impeachment hearings, trade wars, his own inability & refusal to expand his base and his inability to be presidential.
And Senator Warren is becoming a much better retail politician. Not to mention a good storyteller. And several of her plans are actually quite popular: taxing the rich, improving the environment, etc.
Also I’m not sure it makes sense to look at the next election based on the previous one. 2016 was a freakish series of black swans that gave us Donald Trump. We had an unpopular Democrat, voters who were sure HRC would win allowing them to vote for Stein & Johnson, an idiot FBI Director, and voters who held their nose & voted for Trump. If anything, I think Trump is speeding up the demographic change that pushes young people and minorities to the polls. And I think that turnout will be a huge factor in the large urban areas of these states.
Again, call me after Labor Day 2020 & tell me where he stands.
1
@Rod A Clinton more than held her own against Trump. Didn’t matter. And many think Trump won’t debate anyhow. At any rate, these so called debates won’t change anybody’s mind.
3
I rarely comment @NYT these days. Too much bias toward the center, and this poll reflects that. Please note that it is based on a NYT/Sienna College poll of 3,766 registered voters. There are over 200 million eligible voters. 137 million are registered to vote. In the last election about 128 million people voted.
And don't forget your history. Remember that Hillary was polling at over 98% to win the election hours before and during the 2016 election by the NYT. We know how that turned out. It only changed when the NYT knew there was no chance for Clinton.
Polling lends insight, but must be taken with a grain of salt. Remember, ideas are what win elections, not polls. And we are a year out with the centrist Times polling and no transparency on how the polling was accomplished.
2
Is this the Nate Cohn who predicted on Nov. 5, 2016 that "Clinton has a solid lead in the Electoral College" and that she would win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania?
9
trump has surrounded himself with scoundrels(remember Karl Rove)that will bring their guns to a knife fight. Therefore, the American voter must redouble its effort to oust America's first dictator from the White House. This country can only live up to its now dusty claim of American exceptionalism when it votes out it's political dead weight.
2
ALL of these polls only add up to about 90%. There are still 10% undecided.
Please, please let's not do the the same media malpractice in analyzing polls that we did in 2016.
A disturbing poll that suggest democrats have a lot of work ahead of them and Trump could win reelection which would be a disaster for the country. Having said that morning consult suggest Trump's popularity is way down in the swing states that he won in 2016. I would be surprised if he expanded outside his base supporters where he won by 70,000 votes in 3 key states. Voter turnout is key.
Name recognition plays a part in this early poll. Once the democrats settle on a candidate name recognition will no longer be an issue. I think a moderate like Mayor Pete would do better than Warren and Biden and Bernie are too old.
2
Is it possible that the Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 may be someone who hasn't even put his/her name in the hat? What if another candidate appears out of the blue (no pun intended) and begins to earn positive attention? Has this late a showing ever happened before?
One reason I ask is that I am very wary at the thought of seeing one of our Democratic Senators move into the White House and leave his/her Senate seat vacant. For both Warren and Sanders, there is no likelihood that the Republican governors of their states will appoint Democratic replacements as Senators.
Is there a Democratic contender of presidential caliber out there in the hinterland who has not yet declared interest in the presidency? Two names I'll float--because unusual times call for unusual solutions--are Adam Schiff and Al Franken. Any other suggestions?
Are we satisfied that any one of the declared Democratic candidates CAN defeat Trump a year from now? If Warren or Sanders defeat Trump, are we satisfied with losing one of our precious Senate seats to another Republican?
Just stuff to consider.
1
What these polls show is that in states where the candidates have barely begun to campaign and make their case, name recognition and preference for the status quo or a perceived return to the prior status quo dominate. Nothing more.
It is outrageous to suggest that a highly dynamic and effective campaigner like Elizabeth Warren would not be able to make inroads, in much the way she has in the states in which she has actively been campaigning (and she has a history in Nevada).
There are so many people who are not even paying attention yet, and if they do it is mostly to headlines. The dynamic will shift completely once the nominee is chosen.
Trump will soon have to deal with his impeachment, a new book by anonymous inside the White House, the release of his tax returns. There's plenty more ammunition that the eventual Democratic nominee will be able to put out there once the focus is no longer on winning the primary. Recordings of him calling up newspapers to talk about himself. His business practices. Despite what most never-Trumpers believe, it is not the case that his supporters know all about him. They really don't.
Anyone with eyes and ears can see that Joe Biden would be a catastrophic choice for the Democrats, tantamount to an admission of defeat. He looks and sounds old. He is the consummate old style pol, and his son's board seat on a corrupt Ukranian company smacks of trading on his political connections.
History shows that it takes cataclysms to renew societies. People just seem to be built to upend everything now and then to progress further.
It used to be wars. People would have a war. Kill lots of people. Ruin countries, infrastructure, etc. And then rebuild and go on to greater achievements.
Since we can't really have a real war without annihilating the human race anymore, we seem destined to create our own crisis which upend economy, people's lives and teach us lessons. Which then will be forgotten in a couple of generations.
Trumpism is just such cataclysm.
5
OMG. Highly competitive? He's an incumbent. The headline should read he's underwater, and deeply in trouble compared to past incumbents.
8
Both Bernie and Warren have supporters who have never voted. We need to have faith and choose the candidate who inspires people to get out and vote, the candidate with the values we need.
Forget the polls!
2
This poll of less than 4000 likely voters over several states is not convincing me of anything, certainly not that Joe Biden is more articulate, qualified, or electable than Elizabeth Warren. (Watching those two man babies toe to toe would slaughter our citizenry with second hand embarrassment.)
1
@Jim Teller It's a decent-sized sample. But do you think Central and Northern Wisconsin vote for Warren?
She’ll win by campaigning here. Enthusiasm for Trump has vanished in Madison and Milwaukee and withered across the state. Here in the Green Bay area, Trump signs have come down and the MAGA stans have gone quiet. Our local news reporting calls his lies.
>4000 people divided by 6 states is a sample of about 650 people per state (small number, large margin of error) is not convincing me of general support. Definitely not convincing that Biden doesn’t have the capacity to damage and embarrass the world like Trump.
1
Depressing.
5
Elizabeth Warren and Stacey Abrams will save us! Two fierce woman: A Northeastern Transplant from the Midwest and a True Southerner! Warren/ Abrams 2020! I'm all in.
4
This is a year out from the election. A lot can happen between now and then.
5
Can we just stop with the national polls. They are useless and meaningless. Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million but lost the Electoral College. Trump might win the EC again and lose by 5 million votes.
All that matters are how each state votes. This article does a good job at highlighting those numbers.
We learned 2 thinks in 2016: 1) don't trust the polls, and 2) Trump has more support than the polls show.
Makes me wonder if I should support Biden of Warren.
4
It is worth noting just how much of an aberration the NYTimes / Siena College results are from all other polls. If we learned one thing from 2016, it's don't rely too heavily on polls. Let's put our heads down and do the hard work of getting out there and registering new voters, knocking on doors, and building the democracy we believe is possible in this country.
Here are very different results from recent polls in Michigan (for Warren), Pennsylvania (for Sanders), NC for Sanders... Don't take one survey as the truth. It's simply a reminder that we shouldn't take anything for granted.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_warren-6769.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_sanders-6862.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_sanders-6745.html
3
@cwells9
Yup - and you fail to mention that Biden polls way ahead of Warren or Sanders in all those polls as well.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
Biden also cleans Trump's clock in Wisconsin and all are doing well in Ohio.
Biden is up + 1 in Florida, but that is a statistical tie, I think Sanders and Warren are behind there.
However, there are no recent polls for Pennsylvania that I am aware of.
Our elections are a complete sham, like all of governance.
5
I am very afraid. How will we ever see Trump leave White House. His mob mentality will keep him there in 2020 and 2024 he will change goal posts, yet again. The times are dire.
Please think about our Constitution, the nation and its future that is infected by a virus DJT.
4
I think it is odd that the NYT reports this poll when other polls show Biden way ahead of Trump in Michigan as well as some other places. You think they would wonder what is up with the numbers on this one?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html
4
Not that I believe such polls (um, remember Clinton vs. Trump?), but what does is say about a nation and its states that a racist, thug, con-man, serial harasser, known liar, and likely traitor is "highly competitive" in key voting states?
That half of America has NO principles, let alone morals.
9
President Trump will win again in 2020. The Democrats know it. The liberals know it. The Trump haters know it. And if my some strange chance he doesn't, I'll eat my MAGA hat.
10
Many comments are along the lines of: who are these idiots who would vote for Trump? This is, I feel, the wrong question. Better to ask why the opposing candidates cannot best him. Trump is a flawed man (as are we all) and an imperfect President (as they all have been). Yet, if the Democrats would nominate someone who would resonate with the American people as a whole they would win in a landslide. None of the current nominees of the Dems have the magic.
5
Biden-Buttigieg.
8
You all sucker-punched us with the Clinton polling. Not taking the bait.
7
If this is America - racist illiterate corrupt America - and apparently it is - then I vote for Trump too. Go Trump go! Go racism! Go illiteracy! Go corruption!
2
These people who say they want a Democrat who can find common ground with today's Republican Party are living in fantasy land. Anyone who finds much common ground with today's Trump-y GOP is going to have be pretty Trump-y himself (or herself). If Democrats lose this election, they will at the very least need to remain the adult in the room. If we don't have that, we are truly lost.
4
Finally, a poll that shows what I see out here in the midwest. Chicago is an island surrounded by Wisconsin, Indiana, suburban independents. Trump has been running the anti-socialist ads, how he created 6M jobs, etc out here on Youtube (I like to watch Colbert a lot so maybe that's how I got targeted). He's systematically destroying Warren and Sanders before they even get a chance. People have forgotten how the GOP tried to destroy healthcare. Nobody is calling him out in a way that the general public can easilly consume. (This can easily segue to a conversation on how the internet got us here).
Let's talk about third party candidates. I'm troubled by how Hillary could have won WI and MI if she had the Green party votes in 2016. Also, I recall that the Libertarian party got lots of votes too, what if Trump converts more Libertarian voters his way in 2020?
4
And again, the underlying assumption that Sanders will never become the nominee – and the author's/paper's role in promoting the more establishment candidates.
6
Are these the same polls that said Hillary was going to win last time? Why do we believe this stuff? I watched TV on election night. The pollsters were in tears because they were all wrong. They didn't predict Trump and they are not going to predict the next president, either. Wait until people actually start voting - then talk to me.
4
Democrats need to stop trying to erode Biden's campaign. Sanders did that to Clinton, who took heavy wounds on the way to the nomination and she paid a heavy price eventually. Now the party is doing it again to Biden.
People have a terrible habit of assuming that everyone else sees the world like them. The truth is that a significant portion of this country just wants a "normal" leader to help them lead a normal life. They don't want socialism, social justice, gender equality, etc. shoved down their throats. We can get there eventually, but we can't get there at all if people like Trump keep getting elected. And make no mistake, he will get re-elected if he is running against anyone other than Biden.
3
“32 percent of Biden-but-not-Warren voters who do not agree that most female presidential candidates are unlikable or that Ms. Warren is too far to the left.
These voters like Mr. Biden — he has a 92 percent favorable rating among them — but 52 percent say they don’t know enough about Ms. Warren to have an opinion.”
To me this is incredibly important- that means at least 16% of the Biden-but-not-Warren voters don’t know enough about her, and that’s why they’re picking Biden, when the margins against Trump are all within 6%. Given that we know Warren tends to get more popular the more voters see of her, and that NONE of the sampled states are early primaries -meaning that she has barely started campaigning in any of them- this is a complete non-result to me.
2
I think you are right. Biden is getting a lot of votes simply on his name recognition at the moment.
1
If I combine this with the NYT articles on the president's tweets (volume and substance), perhaps a variation of the infamous line uttered a few hundred years ago is in order. For all of the Trump supporters, instead of "let them eat cake," it should be "let them read tweets."
I agree with the Democrats. Nominate Warren or Sanders. It will be funny.
7
Doesn't the Electoral College make all National polls pointless? If there are only six states in play for the future of the country, why not concentrate the entirety of the anti-Trump resources in those crucial battlegrounds . Start with protecting voter integrity at the booth, since these same states are notoriously vulnerable to tampering.
5
So in other words, we're cooked.
3
There’s a reason that our country can’t function: too many people, too much ideological, economic, and ethno-cultural divisiveness...not enough cohesion.
What does a fisherman in New England have in common with a non-English speaking migrant living in Los Angeles? There’s no shared interest holding our citizenry together anymore. And if citizens can’t relate to one another through common interests, language, and culture....what have you got? It would appear that the ‘melting pot’ has finally boiled over.
6
A billionaire real estate executive convinced a bunch of poor and working class people that he was one of them. If that can be done I think the lobsterman & the Angelino can find common ground.
5
Warren 2020!
Trump will crush Biden in the debates. Biden has trouble finding his word and sadly all Trump will do is mock him. Even sadder, that may be enough. Uncle Joe will easily fluster up against him.
Warren is the smartest, the most relatable, and the only one who truly understands the depth of corporate corruption. She's studied personal bankruptcy and understands how healthcare can drive a person/family into homelessness along with Corp greed.
I will hold my nose and vote for Bumbling Biden, but many progressives will not. #Anita
4
This feels like the mainstream media pushing the middle of the road candidate, despite people clamoring for change. Biden seems ok, but are my options basically this: old, white, spray tanned, vulgar, corrupt, incompetent real estate tycoon or old, white spray tanned, maybe corrupt, slightly dim career politician? Really, that's all I get? I weep for my country.
3
This is mind-blowing---that such a figure with such a lack of character and concern for the future--who has put into place one destructive policy after another--would still lead any poll. What is wrong with people? Does the majority not care about having a future? Are humans even worth saving if this is what they're bleak, ignorant vision amounts to?
4
The polling for 2016 proved unreliable. I'll never forget the NYT predictive needle literally flipping from Clinton over to Trump on election night. So take it with a large grain of salt.
Meanwhile, Biden's Dem numbers have slipped. It's Dems who are watching Biden. All round "likely voters" may not really be paying attention yet - so they only go by the familiar names: Trump or Biden. Sanders is the next familiar. Warren is the newest name. Once the campaign becomes more general, Warren can gain general traction.
The poll does explain Trump's moves on Ukraine.
1
Haha!
I love predictions. They never imagine the unforeseeable twists and turns of elections. Take a look at what Gallup was saying about Obama vs. Clinton in October 2007:
"Clinton has led the Democratic pack in every Gallup Poll conducted between November 2006 and October 2007. For most of this time, Clinton has led Obama by a double-digit margin... Clinton’s lead over Obama has expanded to nearly 30 points in Gallup’s latest poll, conducted Oct. 12-14: 50% vs. 21%... Gallup polling on Democratic nominations going back to the 1972 election shows that, by historical standards, a lead of even 20 points is large for Democratic candidates. "
Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/102277/gallup-election-review-october-2007.aspx
Given how wrong these predictions turned out, I still see a lot of room for just about anyone in the top 4. Looking at the current situation in Iowa, I wouldn't be surprised to see Buttigieg steal the show.
4
It’s worth noting here a headline from CNBC today:
“Wall Street donors are so worried about Elizabeth Warren that they are snubbing Democrats in 2020 Senate races”
https://tinyurl.com/y4wvdlsk
We hand wring about the legacy of Citizens United, but we should need to target HOW it is that money buys voter opinion. That is: How does the scientific profession of targeted marketing, transposed to political marketing, do its deceitful, consumerist business? HOW is it that elections are bought through predatory marketing?
I’d like to see Kathleen Hall Jamieson be a relentless analyst before the 2020 campaign season, syndicated in every Red state newspaper.
Jamieson faculty page: https://tinyurl.com/y4kagfh3
1
Why does the NYT consistently downplay Bernie Sanders? The poll’s questions, like the Op-Ed page, have built-in biases. It’s hard to take the newspaper seriously any more, especially considering how accurate its polling was before the last election.
5
Warren will come out a star - when the Trump-loving media stop referring to her single-pay insurance plan as “trillions in new spending” without mentioning perhaps more put back in the pockets of small employers and individuals now paying for health insurance.
I am really tired of hearing how changing the form of how a bill is paid, and shifting responsibility to people who can afford to help a bit more (a person with a trillion in wealth can afford to pay a higher percentage of the cost of government than one making a five-figure income).
Shifting the burden of taxation away from the wealthy has brought us Trump’s soaring debt and deficit.
Shifting it back won’t increase, but decrease the total US medical bill.
It’s not a spending increase, it’s a redistribution of wealth away from the hyper-wealthy and the insurance companies, who steal for stockholders.
4
How can anyone interpret this information? What did the data show a month ago, three months, six? Are Warren, Biden and Sanders moving closer to Trump in polls in the swing states? What impact will public impeachment hearings have on Trump’s standing? Warren has only just told us her approach to paying for Medicare For All.
Maybe in the context of similar polls taken over the past few months the new data would be interesting. Without that context - not really.
2
This poll seems to have only questioned registered and likely voters, and I am not convinced that it accurately predicts the 2020 Presidential Election.
I believe this election will see record NEW voter turnout from young voters, multiple communities of color, and women. With these voters, a progressive Democrat will win the day.
Since almost 40% of eligible voters don't vote, it will only take a small portion of these missing voters to turn the tide.
5
It’s a year out. The only thing certain about this prediction is it’s probably going to be wrong.
I think in order for the democrats to win, they have to change the turnout model. The have to get young people to the polls. It can be done on climate change alone. Focus on those young people who turn 18 since last election and who care about the environment.
5
as long as susan sarandon et al stay quiet, sanity has a chance to reenter the oval office. if AOC et al continue to agitate for unelectable candidates in the name of "real change," they will ensure more of the same - trump.
13
They key people to convince are a swing-state minority of voters - such is the unfairness of a first-past-the-post, Electoral College system. The UK suffers a similar fate. But that system will not be reformed any time soon, and certainly not for this election. So, it has to be Biden. Now is not a time for the DNC to let the pursuit of perfection stand in the way of achieving the good.
1
If nothing else the last election should have taught us is to try to read too much into one poll. So I would think that this article, especially where it is positioned by the NYT is more of an editorial piece than actually a reporting. Also considering that they are putting this out so long before anyone has even showed up to one polling station.
3
I live in a progressive Blue State - I am coming to believe that being part of the united states is becoming irrelevant. Another term for trump - a loss by 5 million votes and an electoral college win - signals a time for Blue states exit.
10
While Europe has seen enough of 2000 years of war, the states seemed to be heading toward it.
Warren cannot win where it matters. That’s the reality.
Too many voters are misogynists.
If they aren’t, they are terrified of “socialism” or want to keep their health care.
If they’re not in the above categories, they will be overwhelmed by the power of unprecedented money (Trump donors, Wall Street, foreign and domestic oligarchs) to make sure Warren is defeated.
If we elected presidents by popular vote, the result might be different. But we don’t.
If Biden can be controlled and packaged and matched with the right VP, he has a shot where it matters.
There is only one principle, purity play or goal to guide those who want to stop the GOP nightmare: defeat Trump.
12
@JB I don’t think she can beat Trump but it lass less than nothing to do with her being female anymore than it did with Hillary. It’s just a convenient excuse for loosing. Warren is too radical and Hillary, literally, was and is unlikeable. Sad but true.
2
Gee, if I were the Democrats, and saw these numbers, I know what I would do!
It seems every time Nate Cohn writes a piece on presidential polling, I can't help but feel overwhelmed and depressed. One of the many problems of course are those fellow citizens that remain uninformed, ill informed, and misinformed. Yes, Hilary did make a political miscalculation in referring to this group as deplorable(s). That said, America and the world are becoming more and more victimized by this group's abject ignorance as spurred on by the ignoramus in chief.
Basic common sense says something is radically awry here.
One can't help but fear that this president and his inner circle of pathetic sycophants are anything close to wise and experienced enough if forced to confront and solve a true existential crisis.
Please America, lets come together, educate and learn from each other.
6
Why would you include Biden and Warren in the headline when Sanders is clearly in second?
6
It has to be a Biden/Harris race if we are to stand a chance. Harris covers the women and people of color. Don't even think of Booker.....I might stay home rather than vote Booker in as VP.
1
@Philip W People of color don't like Warren...they like Biden. She brings nothing to the table.
2
@Philip W
Given Biden's age, the VP role is much more significant than in previous elections. She will turn off voters in the moderate Midwest states and with independents who have soured on Trump.
1
Really? REally? after what happened in 2016 people are still paying any attention to polls? didn't the times have Clinton at 86% chance of winning in Nov 2016?
7
Why does this only talk about 2016 when 2018 showed a much different picture?
5
Leading Dems need to figure out how to win the middle as well as excite the base. Focusing on how bad Trump is, wont be sufficient. And implying that rural voters are stupid (as some commenters appear to be doing) only makes matters worse. They need to emphasize those policies and ideas that have the broadest support.
2
Functional literacy and basic critical thinking skill=the new Mason-Dixon Line
15
CM -- Classic!
2
More young people will turn voting age by 2020, and they hate the GOP. There are more of them than than there are the trumpvolk.
10
@duvcu Unfortunately, young people are far less likely to vote than those older rural Trump cult members. One can but hope the 2020 election will be different, though the GOP is doing its best to suppress student voting.
2
The important point of these polls at this time is that Sanders and Warren seem to be too far to the left to win enough battleground states--vulnerabilities that lead many of us to support the more moderate candidates other than the 76 (almost 77) year old Biden. Let's wait to see if either Buttigieg, Harris, or Klobuchar takes off and do the same poll again. (As for Buttigieg, I think many voters would have an easier time pulling the lever for a gay white man than a woman. Sexism has several thousand years of patriarchal tradition in the West. We still have a long way to go.)
3
Gotta love that Electoral college system. Too much emphasis on a few states, others are completely ignored.
10
@tim
You mean the 30 states that voted AGAINST Clinton are given "too much emphasis"? There are only 50 states..... but hey lets let the minority of 20 states dictate to the other 30
10
Land does not equal people. How many people live in those 30 states compared to the other 20?
Republicans only favor the Electoral College because they know it’s the only possible way for their corrupt, wretched ideology to win a national election anymore.
5
@Bart
OP was whining that too few STATES are emphasized.
Point is the election result was consistent with the state voting pattern - 30 didn't want her.
THat is a huge deal. States - separate political entities -are the ones who have to implement many federal programs and some up with all the money to pay for it or match funds
The people of 30 states said NO WAY and they don't want to be California
3
Most of the comments here are a bit hard to comprehend. The polls look at the facts, and indicate that all the Democrats have to do is nominate a moderate candidate--say Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg--and they will defeat Don Trump. Nominating Sanders or Warren will--probably--lead to four more years of Don Trump. Wouldn't defeating Don Trump be pretty good? While most commenters here want a progressive, the facts of this country indicate that a progressive will lose. The relevant comment in this article is from the woman in Florida: "this is not a socialistic country." That's a fact. Even though most Times readers wish it were otherwise. Bernie Sanders sure isn't going to be President. Odds are against Warren. And if the Democrats run either one of them they will likely lose the Presidency as well as lose seats in Congress.
I hope that some of the lower polling candidates continue to drop out and that Pete Buttigieg continues to rise. He is smart and decent and moderate and can win. Electability is the whole point, not ideological purity. The fact that he is gay will not work against him. Please notice that for 8 years we had a black President (won each election by several million votes) and that Hilary Clinton won the popular vote by 3 million. I think that just defeating Don Trump would be great.
27
@Gordon Wiggerhaus...hope you're right on the lifestyle thing. I, too, think his aptitude, attitude, and intellect are the restoration to the office that most would like to preserve after the idiocy of the current regime. Just not sure if the demographic that elects the President under the founder's blunder that is the EC is enlightened to that extent....
1
Neither Warren or Bernie are really socialists.
Can anyone very knowledgeable explain why we should worry about +2/-2 percent points difference when the error bar is +5/-5? "News" is not based on the goodness of one's heart, this is fake news for anyone with a half-thinking mind.
4
I know Biden is leading in the polls, but I fear he'll fizzle in the general. He's been unconvincing in his public appearances and I have a feeling Trump will tear him apart if they go head to head. Sleepy Joe and Corrupt Joe are already out there. Doddering Joe is coming soon, I'm sure.
11
Donald Trump could very possibly win re-election because so many people in rural America have been brainwashed to hate our federal government. Years of sophisticated anti-federal government propaganda, mass media manipulation, and dangerous lies have taken their toll. Donald Trump is the vehicle the rural poor are using to poke their finger in the eye of Uncle Sam.
13
Your first visual shows that Sanders does better than Warren among registered voters, yet you essentially left him out of your analysis. Why?
11
Hopefully Democrats now realize that the popular vote winner is NOT elected president. All that matters is the Electoral College and the states that really matter are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida. Trump won all these states, in 2016, and unless the Democrats nominate Joe Biden they will loose again in 2020. That's a fact!
11
Our media will eviscerate Warren over the next year. Women are fun and easy targets. Plus Liz has actual ideas and detailed proposals that can actually be addressed...
... vs.Republican and Trump's vague nonsensical, screamy, yelling, mangled, moving target, promises that no one could debate and appear calm and intelligent. So the media won't pick those no ideas apart.
The right-wing and the bankers have all the money and guns to block president Warren even tho Trump is universally unloved. Trump still makes a good roadblock and is easy to manipulate.
11
@Anne
That $43-60 TRILLION in new spending over 10 years that she wants .......yep that is a winning position
$20+ trillion more in healthcare
Free healthcare for illegals who get made legal - the payroll taxes of uneducated unskilled peasants wouldn't even come close to paying for it when average per capita healthcare spending in the US was $10800 per person in 2017
$3 or so trillion in college debt forgiveness - freebie (debt forgiveness hasn't played well for past politicians - Cataline comes to mind)
$3-4 trillion for childcare - free
$3 trillion or so for blacks (on top of the current food stamps, housing Medicaid, welfare, special programs for college etc)
$3-6 trillion on "green deal"
Entire federal budget for 2018-2019 is around $4.746 trillion
And she wants to spend ANOTHER $4-6 trillion a year????
Good luck on that
6
Just let the primary process happen.
Articles and polls should not pick the candidate - Democratic voters should.
This poll presumes to influence the primary *process* and where did that get us last time? Please stop. Your job is to INFORM voters, not to manipulate the process.
11
Their job is to provide data and input to an informed decision. Biden being more competitive in the electoral college is a key input and with numbers shows what we already know. Biden middle ground has a better probability of winning vs. Trump which is the goal of many.
2
@George
The question that should be asked is, "Why should trump be elected"?
NOT
Who might, hypothetically beat trump in a year from now.
It's a false argument the way this poll is phrased and it doesn't inform people.
Why aren't we seeing my question advanced by the NY Times?
Donald Trump is the face of a significant portion of the American population and we windup with the government we actually deserve but is this the government the rest of planet deserves and if not what should be done about that ?
2
This poll seems to be very genuine unlike the other polls by CNN or WaPo etc.... Scary, but genuine. Unfortunately for us looks like there is no light at the end of the tunnel..
1
So, it is a battle of the Educated vs. the Uneducated.
15
@Firestar1571
And sadly, there are more uneducated than educated in the states that matter in the electoral college. More educated people should move to those states.
2
Perhaps if the NYT (and other media) changed how it described states where there are competitive political scenarios as "battleground," to something less war-like, we might eventually move away from the terrific divisions that now define them. Just a thought.
1
As we know, polling is infallible. Just ask President Hillary Clinton.
8
Wall Street donors are so worried about Elizabeth Warren that they are snubbing Democrats in 2020 Senate races
Clearly, we need Joe Biden to run. We have got to beat Trump!
2
Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight is who folks should be paying attention to. Cohn is consistently wrong in evaluating the polls themselves and their credibility.
5
Why is the New York Times supporting the fading, charisma-free, scandal-troubled Biden?
Because they are terrified of a progressive financial agenda that might actually be popular with people who aren't wealthy East Coast capitalists.
5
Those of you making arguments based on who has the better policies are missing the point. Politics has never been more mediated by visual technology and has therefore never been more about performance and theater than it is now, and it has always been mostly about performance and theater. That is what matters. Who provides the better show? Who enacts the more compelling character? Why is Howard Stern, for example, so popular, even during his more vulgar years? Before vulgar took on its negative connotations, it meant simply common and popular. The candidate who most appeals to the common person is the one who will win. The people who don’t understand that are the elites, and more historically the aristocracy; and it a democracy, they lose, at least at the ballot box. What will really change with a change in presidency is another question.
5
This is really depressing. The Koch-brothers-fuelled takeover of senate houses by gerrymandering has left the vote to six states. Biden seems like the "safe" choice, but he is weakening and the support for him is lukewarm for those of us with historical memories. And every other candidate seems like a gamble, a very risky gamble. For me, Warren-Mayor B are the strong cards to play, but I fear, a losing gambit, as long as the Electoral College and not the voting public will make the call.
7
These polls are Unfathomable to me.
1
How about a different headline: one year from the election and at least 3 Democrats are neck-in-neck with Trump.
3
Looking at the methodology it’s clear that white men over 45 are the problem.
5
Most of these numbers are within the margin of error for this poll. Combined with the fact that the 2020 General Election is nearly a year away, not much of significance can be gleaned from this and all the other polls you can look at. Too much can, and probably will happen to change the political landscape that will exist on election day next year.
Not a single vote has yet been cast for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, and the Republicans are doing their best to insure that Trump has no real competition towards the Republican Party Nomination.
The best hope for the Democrats is to grind away at Trump's support over time.
The best hope for the Republicans is to suppress the vote and cheat the way they've been doing since 2000's Gore vs Bush sham election.
It won't matter which of the top three Democratic candidates get's on the general election ballot in 2020, what will matter is how much cheating the Republicans can get away with.
6
As circumstances would have it, I have spent the last few weeks apartment shopping in Michigan.
I will likely be spending the next year basking in my renewed political power as I share online comments with an audience consisting mostly of electoral serfs!
3
Thanks for the impeachment Dems and No-Show Joe. Trump will win easily in 2020 once Biden is forced out into public view onto the campaign trail and impeachment gets underway.
6
This survey's state-level results place almost every result within the margin of error.
2020 will be close like 2016, maybe. No one knows because the nature of our politics is shifting dramatically--we also have a sitting president who is ok with actively interfering in the election for his benefit--that hasn't occurred since Nixon.
If the youth vote shows up, this model and all polls are shattered, and we can then consign Mr. Trump to the ash heap of history; if not, very scary business, this.
5
The only way the incumbent can win is by cheating
And ... he already did cheat ... and he got caught ... and he's about to be impeached over it
The appropriate matchups to poll are those of the Democratic candidates against President Pence, becuase with a majority of Americans clamoring for his removal even before hearings begin, he's not going to make it to the convention
And yes, I predicted he would win last time around while losing the popular vote, and I also said in September 2016 that he couldn't do it without Comey interfering
Anyone else feel like all the polling and 24/7 punditry is damaging to democracy? I recall this esteemed paper calling 2016 for the dems weeks in advance. Can't hear myself think.
6
@JB Humphrey
Now that people care so much about polls, including many candidates who triangulate their policy positions based on dubious issue polling, there is real and obvious incentive for people to answer polls strategically (also known as lying).
So yes, it is dangerous that people put so much stock in some polls, and we will eventually figure out that we should not do so. The cost of learning that lesson might be catastrophic.
Dems must chose Biden to have a 50/50 shot. The candidates are far left of even Democratic voters.
7
@Conservative Democrat
Warren is not nearly as far left as the media makes her out to be
From the tone of his editorials, Nate Cohn seems to be a Trump supporter. Every single national and state poll I have checked show Trump down at least ten percentage points, even in North Carolina, Virginia and Florida. And competitive in Kentucky and even Texas. Trump's disapproval rating is even higher, Nate Silver and Real Clear Politics included.
4
And there you have it. Misogyny at work. The old white dudes are in, the intelligent, thoughtful woman out.
6
This sounds like a well designed poll with some significant results. However I think this analysis reads way too much into them, and it's important for Democrats not to do the same. This is one poll of many. Even more importantly, most general election voters have a very good sense of the Democratic candidates right now. Many of them have no idea who Elizabeth Warren is, and to a lesser extent, they don't know Biden or Sanders very well either. This is why pollsters constantly warn us not to take these sorts of polls with a grain of salt.
2
I'm immigrating.
8
The Democrats better get in that smoked filled back room and nominate whoever can beat Trump.
5
The NYT should anoint Hillary as the preferred candidate.
10
@Ami
All she has to do is go to Wisconsin and she would win
That's according to every single person in the White House
@Ami
I think since she won the primary by over 2 million votes.
Yes - even the primary!
That the voters "anointed" her.
That is how a democracy is supposed to work - correct?
Or did 2 million illegal immigrants help her win the primary as well?
I am so tired of silly conspiracy theories!
4
I'm not sure I have much hope left for America. What do you do when a good 45-55% of the population is absolutely OK with an immoral, corrupt, lying, racist as the president? What will it take for these folks to stop drinking the kool-aid from Fox news?
14
@Mr. Adams I think what's key in the key states is to have the young people break off from their mind controlled communities and vote Democratic. Many young people who will have just turned 18 in 2020 are feeling empowered through the internet, even more so than 2016, about who they are, and their communities may not support this. The DNC does have The Organizing Corps, made up of young people, who are focusing on these communities. I wish them luck, and hope, and energy and success.
@Mr. Adams
If Trump wins, we (45-55%) should leave for Canada and help it become more powerful. U.S. won't last long in terms of its technological and scientific prowess if half the population leaves. Then, may be just may be conservatives will realize that they have no real skills. But it would be too late by then. The oligarchs will have full monopoly on governance and the low information conservatives will forever be in the prison.
Lets face it... America is too backward to elect a woman yet. Our country has really turned into a backwater.
11
@Siara Delyn absolutely. Just look at the party, going-out culture in this country. In Europe, if you're a single, unmated woman and are invited to a wedding, party, etc. you never fret or even think about 'not having a date'. In the US, professional, educated, well-traveled women I've met agonize if they have to go to a wedding without a date! Really??? You need a date to go to a wedding??? This just shows how backwards the US is.
1
Kind of laughable. Trump is polling 30% here and in the most gerrymandered state in the nation, several congressional seats flipped. He will not take Michigan.
5
Too bad you only included the three mainstream media darlings. I wonder about how the outsider candidates might fare. The media seems to not have caught on to the idea that the voters want an outsider. Barack Obama was an outsider, DJT is an outsider.
7
What's more depressing than a poll telling us how Trump is doing well? Answer: An accompanying article that asserts that no one in America will change their minds in the next year.
4
At this stage, and after everything that has been revealed about Trump and his corruption, any individual that is still inclined to vote for him I would have to question their ethics and integrity. I would not do business with those individuals because they have already told me that they would not hold to a level of ethical behavior, treat individuals with respect and that they would overlook behaviors of others that did likewise. I also would be very careful about playing golf with them because in my view, they would be more likely to cheat on their score or bump their ball in the rough.
In short, they have demonstrated a tolerance of poor behavior built on racism and sexism and I would avoid socializing with such individuals more than I needed to because they exercised poor judgment and fall well short of my values and standards.
4
Self-fulfilling prophesy department:
Your polling is only considering the current top 3 candidates.
Two of them suffer from the same problem: a lot of people are not prepared to discard a pretty good health plan for an unknowable one. There are Democratic candidates lower on the popularity chain other than Biden who are liberal but not leftist, whose views that are more centrist within the Dem party. Think of Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Booker. They may not poll in the top tier within the party right now, but they may be second choice favorites for a lot of people if Biden's bid for the nomination is not successful. Right now they and Biden are splitting this constituency four ways. How would any one of them do against Trump? No one seems to be asking, but it would be helpful to know. If you polled on that, please tell us the results. If not, why not consider at least one poll that takes these candidates - some very experienced, knowledgeable and capable individuals - seriously?
3
How does Elizabeth Warren "moderate" her image? She is pretty "out there" when it comes to being progressive and very left. I feel the same way about most of the candidates except perhaps Biden, but he is looking mightly weak these days.
The Democrats put a lot of stock on this "impeachment" thing and not sure the American people will either understand this or care for the outcome whatever it may be.
Dems: Legislate. Do what you promised to do. So far as I can see all you are doing is creating more sympathy for Donald Trump (heaven help us!).
5
This is absolutely no surprise. Anyone who thinks the democrats can sneak in a very liberal/socialist to the presidency is dreaming, no matter how unpopular they think Trump is. I don’t like Trump but would vote for him against Warren or Sanders. Trump’s idiotic talk divides us, but Warren/Sanders would torch our economy. Please don’t let that be the choice we have to make.
If Biden wants to seal the deal, he should talk to Bill Clinton (discreetly), not Obama. He’s not Obama and never will be - but he certainly can play up his working class Scranton background the way Bill sold us on Hope, Arkansas. Yes, Biden needs to go right, not left. It may upset progressives, but it’s his only hope (pun intended) against Trump.
5
Just remember it works two ways. I will never vote for Biden. If it’s not Warren or Sanders, I will vote for Trump.
3
Amend the Constitution: dump the Electoral College.
5
Amendments require a supermajority in Congress to pass plus a majority of States to approve. In othet words, good luck.
1
@wem
As gee poor whining toddler doesn't like the rules that have been around for over 200 years....
More people voted ABC (anyone but CLinton) than voted for her
She LOST in 30 states.
4
@AnnS My goodness, you are forgetting that if you combine all people living in 10 of those states you still have less people that the population of California. Educate yourself.
1
Americans are deplorable. They don’t care if everyone is cared for- they only care what they get and they don’t want to pay a dime for any of it. Even those people on Medicaid aren’t interested enough to vote to keep their benefits so with a Trump presidency they may lose them
If they can’t be bothered to vote in their own interests I am starting to wonder why I should continue to vote for their
Interests. I despise Trump - but I am tired of losing and will retire in less than ten years
2
@Deirdre - Americans did vote in their own interests!
Those interests did not include residency and benefits for illegal aliens, U.S. economic growth of <1%, double digit unemployment, or a thriving ISIS.
2
I really wish that news outlets would not publicize and generate conclusions from numbers that are within the margin of error. It makes graphics misleading, especially since I don't see a single result in the likely voters table that isn't within the MOE (+/- 5.5% in MI and +/- 4.4% in the others in tinyyyy font at the bottom of the article).
But I guess "Top Democratic Contenders in Dead Heat with Trump" wouldn't garner as many clicks...
1
Not a good way to start a new week.
1
I look forward to voting for Trump again.
6
Ed -- Ha, ha, that's a good one! Got me right in the funny bone!
2
Not surprised with this front page article—
More pushing of Democratic-Establishment out-of-touch past-tense Joe Biden.
Yes, "the establishment" is mother's milk to the well-ensconced NYTimes and its controlling family.
6
America is damaged goods.
4
If America reelects Trump, then it will well and truly deserve him.
3
Biden is unelectable, unfortunately. The sooner the Times realizes this and starts reporting on Bernie's campaign, the sooner we'll be out of this mess, and the sooner about 40 million more people will be afford subscriptions to the NY Times. I'm so tired of hearing about Biden, I don't know anybody who supports him except for corporate media.
8
Calling out to all the Jill Steins and Ralph Naders of the world ; please DO NOT RUN as a third candidate !! If you do , you will only help to re elect the most dangerous and evil president this country has ever known.
If we don’t have a third Green Party candidate , then I think it will we will have a more than even chance at getting rid of this “ so called “ president of ours .
7
More Trump talking points care of the NYT.
I’ll resubscribe to the NYT when they stop the sexism and realize the true viability of Elizabeth Warren as President.
3
@Prof Emeritus NYC just because you reallllllly like someone doesn't mean they're viable, and just because the NYT *occasionally* publishes something that doesn't reinforce your preexisting notions doesn't make it a Trump talking point
3
Why do the Democrats eat their own and judge each other so extremely. This is not a way to win an election. It seems whoever is out front the Democrats and the media tear them down, it is crazy making. They talk out of 2 sides of their mouth. "We need to beat Trump" then the other side, " the Democratic candidate is too radical, too moderate, too gay, too old, a female. OMG! Just stop. You say they do not have any ideas, but, when they have the gumption to actually put one forward you fools whip them with it. It is just an IDEA!! It is better than nothing. I do not see anyone doing anything but chasing Trumps tweets around and critiquing his 24 hour Circus act.
We are stuck on Ukraine,the Middle East, oil, the cost of healthcare; that half the people do not have or can afford; when the Amazon is being cut down and the environment is toxic and corruption is incredible. It makes all human beings on Earth look like a bunch of brainless empty vessels. I personally am sick and disgusted with everything and losing hope quickly.
Who cares anyway, we ALL won't be able to breath.
4
@LM Stellar! You've said it all better than anyone else could or has. Thank you.
I loathe the horse race polls even if we are one year out.
The NYT would better serve the public if they focused on real issues instead of this nonsense.
5
NYT just like in 2016 is going to help Trump win in 2020.
For those of you who took statistics you know these polls for the most part are worthless.
2
Not clear how anyone thought this was not important to include from their own poll....Trump is behind generic Dem in all 7 battleground states
Wisconsin: 40/46%
Pennsylvania: 41/45%
Florida: 39/43%
Arizona: 41/44%
Michigan: 38/41%
Iowa: 41/43%
NC: 44/45%
5
In my opinion, the real issue is Congress, who for many decades hasn't been fiscally honest, and so, almost 63 million people who had a chance to pick someone else in the Republican Primary, when there were over a dozen candidates that were more competent than DT, shows that they don't understand leadership, nor do they understand, that government isn't working fiscally anymore because of Congress. When as a nation, you are $22.9 trillion in debt, have promised over $30 trillion in underfunded entitlement mandates over the next 15 years, will pay $400 billion in interest on our debt each year, starting next year, means that the electoral college might again prove to be the ultimate destruction of a country on the fiscal cliff. Think that isn't true, vote for the wrong candidate, DT, or anyone that doesn't explain the math to the voters, and the whole country will find out what happens next fiscally to this country.
4
This is a good look at the double standard that women face. 2/3rds of the voters who prefer Biden but not Warren told the pollster that the "women candidates are not likeable".
It's probably too early for this analysis. The general election will give Warren an opportunity to present more of her pragmatic side. But if Trump is able to win, there's little question that we are in terrible shape as a country.
3
Thing is, we need to make a decision about Warren *before* we nominate her. I'm not sure why you think this analysis is too early. Were four or five debates in, now, with only a few months before the first votes are cast. The numbers in this article reflect real opinions of real people. If people are too sexist, people are too sexist. We need Trump out of the white house more than we need to die on the Hill of nominating the best candidate.
2
What happened to Joe the fighter? Has Joe disappeared, Hilary-style, while Trump is out there every day? People want to see how well Joe will fight, and now is the time. Don't wait for the general election, start now.
4
He's listening to the record player watching Matlock.
6
@CJ
That's not very nice. Come on, Man!
A lot of this is because the mainstream media reinforces the Overton Window of what is allowed to be discussed. It keep reinforces that Trump is an actual candidate and not a criminal and that Warren and Sanders are radical leftists, when in reality compared to the rest of the world they are moderates.
6
@Robert J Berger Umm.no. There is literally no other country in the world that does what Warren is proposing -- no other country that offers "everything is free, no deductibles, no co-pays, that includes drugs, vision and dental" healthcare to everybody and nobody else gives the same level of healthcare to illegals that they do to their citizens and legals. Nobody else has the kind of wealth tax that she proposes (a couple countries tried it and abandoned it). Nobody else has "free college for everybody." And on and on. Look it up. Don't just believe what you read in the comments section of the NY Times.
3
I think Biden's incoherent answers to almost any question he is asked is the secret sauce that makes him so electable. Corporations don't have to work so hard to convince him because he doesn't understand any of the issues.
7
This is a depressing poll.
I have no problem with anybody but Donald Trump.
And the healthcare mess we have is astounding.
Canada spends $4500 per person and covers 100%. US spends $11000 per person and covers 85 to 88% and 40% of those are under insured, do not see MDs and if they see will not fill medications.
Medical costs are to go up 14% per year under wnt present system.
Paying $11,000 for 320 Million is costing us $3.7 Trillion per year.
Paying $4.500 for 320 Million Americans like Canada does cost us $1.6 Trillion per year.
Average life- for Canadian Male is 80 years vs American 76 years. For women it is 84 years in Canada and 81 years in USA.
And no wonder LIBERTARIAN Senator and MD from Dulke went to Canada for Hernia Surgery. GOP needs to change and work for common man or just wither.
4
If this article is truly reflective of a portion of the electorate who can make a difference in an election then I am forced to conclude that Trump must be like an opioid to those who fear thinking and hammering out solutions for themselves and have little appetite for a leader who assesses, debates, tolerates dissent, and lives by principles. Their fallacy is to think that because “Trump thinks like they do”, ergo, he must be good for the country and their powers of analysis stop right there. Alas for such a myopic vision which leads not to a government by democracy but to an autocracy where one mind however shallow unites all under one banner while, crucially, eliminating all other alternatives. I am speculating that the pace of life has changed more rapidly than some are able to accept. Not for them anymore is the person who thinks, deliberates, understands the tide of history, and cherishes the values that underpins America. Anyone who operates like Trump is fit for entertainment in a reality show and no more than that. To choose him as a president over thoughtful leaders is a dreadful delusion. Even if the economy is reasonably benign (except to farmers) and even if we continue to hammer China and even if we pull out of theaters of war around the world, we would still be left with a rather dreadful internal problem if Trump is re-elected given his known proclivities.
1
These results mean nothing where the rubber meets the road. They didn't mean anything last time, when the predicted winner was Clinton.
1
So your move is to permanently reject polling data as useless?
This is more BERNIE BLACKOUT nonsense. Even though BERNIE is more competitive with Trump than Warren is in the cited polls, the article focuses almost exclusively on Warren & Biden as rivals to Trump, and seems to marginalize Bernie, which is ridiculous. There is plenty of evidence that Bernie gets more popular with minority voters as they get to know him, and that Bernie has the ability to pull working-class white voters away from Trump in swing states. There is also evidence that Bernie creates more excitement among his base and among young people than any of his Democratic rivals do (witness the recent rally of 26,000 people in Queens!). This kind of excitement usually has electoral benefits. Do you remember Trump's rallies in 2016 and the intensity of his support? Now he's President!. Conventional polls chronically miss the intensity of Bernie's support and therefore understate Bernie's electoral potential. Bernie is the only Democrat in the race who is a game-changer. If the Democrats nominate one of his conventional rivals, they will likely lose to Trump. Biden loses steam over time. Warren will not pull in enough white working-class males; she will be Hillary Clinton all-over-again. And Buttagieg... please... The coming together of discredited identity politics and neoliberal policies to take the country further into the abyss... Trump will take all 50 states from Buttagieg in a landslide.
7
@Don M
Bernie is too old. He's in poor health and wouldn't be able to complete his term.
It's easy to say that Bernie would have won the last election if the Democrats hadn't nominated Clinton, but we'll never know if that's true.
What does seem true is that misogyny is alive and well in the United states of America, on both sides of the political fence.
2
Trump trails behind Biden. Not Warren. Biden is the one. Why even think of anyone else? Biden appears to be almost every body's Uncle. An uncle who wishes the best for all of us. An uncle who would serve four years and has enough sense to bow out...I would think.
2
@Nightwood An uncle who you indulge at the holiday dinner table, by pretending to follow his ramblings.
3
This shows how disappointing the status of American morality is. For about half of the nation to be able to turn a blind eye to discrimination and corruption for their own personal gains.
The bright side is, that about half the nation upholds morality. Notably, given such wide margins in white-college v non-college, our education seems to be successful in growing moral minds.
Let's hope for more education, more immigration, and higher morality for America.
4
Trump is aware that he will win if Biden is not the nominee. This is why he risked everything to force Ukraine to make up dirt on Biden.
6
It is interesting that these improving poll numbers for President Trump are showing up after the impeachment process started. Any chance that these numbers are a reaction? Democrats: starting this impeachment business was a very foolish move, especially since there is no chance of conviction in the Senate. Why didn't you just leave it alone, let Trump do what he does and try to defeat him in 2020?
By the way, the latest Emerson poll shows the President defeating Biden and Warren and tied with Sanders in Nevada, a state which Clinton won in 2016.
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/nevada-2020-biden-extends-lead-warren-jumps-to-second
4
I don’t think donald will win, but the fact that there’s even an inkling of possibility for the most despicable president in US history to get 4 more years is a tragedy.
6
I shudder to think of what Trump would do to Biden in the debates. Joe is a slow processor, he has word finding difficulties and he’s not as sharp as he used to be.
7
From my extensive travels across this country, I can pretty much make a serious big bet on Warren losing. She may be right. But if people think being right is enough, they haven't been paying attention. There's millions of people out there happy being lead by an ignorant malignant narcissist. I think a centrist ticket more closely represents where our country has historically been when it has been most productive. I would not mind Biden Buttigieg. Neither would Romney Haley upset me. What I'd like is some kind of achievable sanity and stability as a guiding force.
7
This is amazing. It might as well say, 'John Gotti Doing Well with Republican Voters'. How low they have sunk.
1
Everyone who does not live in a solid blue area know in their bones what that this article is saying is true.
9
Just the other day I came across the NYTimes Upshot article for November 8, 2016. The one that said Hillary Clinton had an 85% chance of beating Trump. Trump's chance of winning? Just 15 percent. "About the the same odds as an NFL kicker missing a 37-yard field goal." Link below.
Don't trust the polls. For that matter, don't trust NFL kickers, as we in Minnesota know all too well. In 1998, our kicker missed just one field goal. The one that kept us from being in the Super Bowl. It was a 39-yarder.
Here is the link.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
Read it and weep, then fearlessly support the candidate you think is the best. Not the one the polls tell you is best.
3
Fellow Minnesotan, here. I like your football analogy. I for one am still going to vote for the kicker lined up to kick at the 37-yard line, not the one at the 47.
@Paul T. Touche, I appreciate your comment! We're pretty near the beginning of the game, what with a year to go and all. It's too soon to say what yard line any of the candidates will be on. Warren, Mayor Pete, Gabbard... they were not even on most voters' radar even a few months ago. My larger point however is this: The Times was wrong wrong wrong when the adds were 85/15. With Warren vs. Biden, you're talking just a few percentage points. Clearly it is impossible to tell who can beat Trump. And, very few mainline Republicans thought Trump could win the nomination, much less the election. But he did. He was elected because he was backed by people who believed in him. As opposed to the "highly electable" Hillary. I held my nose as I voted for her. Many of my Sanders-supporitng friends didn't vote, or voted for Jill Sanders.
1
Thank you NYTimes and Siena College, these are the type of polls we need published to scare the bejesus out of common folk like me who are terrified by the prospect of having the current occupant of the WH for an extra four years. Please keep them coming!
3
Sitting here in the blue bubble with a republican governor everyone likes, a strong economy and an educated population this poll blows my mind .
How can the facts we know not have this guy behind by 15 to 20 points?
Oh I know the country has lost it's integrity, critical thinking is something other people do and 50% of the population has trouble comprehending a book written at an 8th grade level.
My hope is that the nation will realize that the information coming out of the impeachment inquiry is
real and that he and his whole administration are dirty. It's right there in plain sight.
Good luck to all. We need it
3
Maybe now the far left can spare us with the "only Bernie or Warren can beat Trump" trope, but I doubt it. It's tiring between they and the Republicans always telling us we're not seeing what we're seeing. The country is still too sexist to overall vote for a woman and still too brainwashed to vote for a liberal.
2
In this criticism of Warren(notice the absence of Sanders)I always chuckle at the MSM and pundits and pollsrters definition of the term "electability". What exactly does that mean? I always, thought it meant the candidate in America with the most votes or electoral college votes wins the election.
For the record, in recent years,the vast majority of the media pundits along with many of those who conduct polls had convinced themselves that that their was TWO recent Presidents that weren't electable.
Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
2
I’m won’t vote Trump, but I’m also definitely not going to vote Warren. If she’s nominated I’m staying home. I’d definitely vote Biden or Pete.
Several of my Michigan friends agree.
She’s far too radical, wanting to impose socialism and trample on the Second Amendment.
Biden would restore sanity to the Oval Office, which we desperately need. He’s a respectable and sensible man who loves America.
12
@JC I’m won’t vote Trump, but I’m also definitely not going to vote Pete. If he’s nominated I’m staying home. I’d definitely vote Warren or Pete.
Several of my Michigan friends agree.
He’s far too radical, wanting to impose socialism and trample on the Second Amendment.
Biden would restore sanity to the Oval Office, which we desperately need. He’s a respectable and sensible man who loves America.
@JC
But Sanders isn't? Their policies are almost identical. C'mon, you can say it, you won't vote for a woman.
1
@JC
I prefer the moderates as well, but not showing up is not a good idea. If you can't vote for someone, you should at least vote against someone, like Trump.
He is dragging our country into the gutter.
Besides the possibility that if Warren in the nomininee that she will also carry the Senate is slim and even if she did, not all Democrats in the House and Senate support M4A as she proposes (they also want to get reelected) So, she will probably sign into law somethin like what Pete, Klobuchar, and Biden all propose - a buy-in and increase subsidies and lower deductibles, etc.
So there is pretty much 0 to no chance M4A will happen even under Warren, that is why I do not know why she is risking running on it.
1
I think Warren would be a fairly good president. I don’t think she will win. This only confirms that fear. I really don’t want to face another four years of Trump.
6
Polls are a snapshot, and I’m taking that to heart this time around. Because Mr. Trump lacks a firm, fact-based foundation to his decisions other than trusting his gut — the same gut which led to so many bankruptcies that banks refused to loan him money — much remains in the air with resolution uncertain: China, Syria, Iran, North Korea, recession, NAFTA and, not least, revelations that may emerge from the impeachment inquiry. No doubt to a minority core none of that matters and Mr. Trump could, literally get away with murder. But as with all else that surrounds his politics, we are on novel terrain and old assumptions don’t apply. Will the state of the economy a few months from now truly supersede climate change, and the permanent harm his denial will cause, as a deciding factor for voters? I’m in my late 60s but that’s a no-brainer for me, and if I were younger, I’d be out on the streets and then in the voting booth. We’ve got a year to go. Assume nothing. This is a democracy. It’s in our hands.
7
A corrupted dishonest liar is still supported by so many people?
Those numbers defy any logic.
But IF the surveys are genuine then we have to accept the fact that millions of Americans are corrupted, dishonest liars. It’s depressing.
15
I don’t disagree that Trump is corrupt and unfit for the presidency.
However, have you considered that some folks have other priorities than you? Have you considered that calling 2/5 of Americans abhorrent and corrupt doesn’t make them any more inclined to vote for your favorite candidate?
It’s worth thinking about these things. When Clinton called folks like my uncle and some of my cousins “deplorables” it may have fired up some leftists, but it didn’t make me any more inclined to vote for her. Largely because of that, I voted for a third party candidate in 2016.
1
“I don’t need Elizabeth Warren telling me that I’m a deadbeat and that billionaires are deadbeats. The vilification of billionaires makes no sense to me. The world is a sustainably better place because of Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, David Rubenstein, Bernie Marcus, Ken Langone,” Leon Cooperman said.
Not to worry, she doesn't have a chance in the general election.
NYT Stock:
November 1, 2016 - $13.00
November 4, 2019 - $31.73
*I wish things were always this bad.
Many thanks
5
college-educated white voters
While that is probably 85% of more on NYT readers, it is
* only 34 1/2% of all non-Hispanic/Latino whites
* only 15 1/5th of all Hispanic/Latino whites
THat gives some perspective
Kind of like the NYT political commentators who single out households with more than $100000 in income as a voting group - only around 25% of the US
The other 75% have far far less in income - 44% have less than $50000 a year but commentators don't care about that group
2
It seems that the writer of this article forgot something very important: most polls failed, burnt-to-a-crisp-failed, in the last Presidential elections. Focus on communicating with people and forget about everything else.
7
Warren is a brilliant, thoughtful, authentic and cannot beat Trump, especially if she holds to the Medicare for All idea.
It doesn't matter if her health plan is superb. And it doesn't matter if her latest math is completely sensible. It doesn't even matter that she is superb at selling her ideas.
And it won't matter that countless middle class, upper middle class and affluent voters -- many of whom were part of the 2018 wave that flipped the house -- might save serious dollars with her plan.
The sad fact is that -- in the insecure and fearful world that Trump has created -- many voters will choose the security of the health care they have, regardless of future benefits that might be possible with a new system.
A Warren candidacy based on Medicare for All will be seen as simply too big a leap into the unknown for millions who, despite the flaws of their current coverage, will not truck with anyone they think might take it away.
8
The Upshot (and this writer, specifically) does not have the best track record of predicting presidential elections. In fact, I believe that track record is 0 in 1.
So let's not lose sight of what's really going on here: the editorial position of The New York Times is well-known, so it makes sense that there would be an attempt to boost its credibility with "data-driven" inevitability.
5
The fact is that the Democratic primary has become an echo chamber hostile to moderates and oh-so-warm to progressives. This is beyond dangerous. It's reckless and portends an unthinkable outcome where Democrats squander what should be the easiest Presidential election in decades. Nancy Pelosi sees it coming and is fighting it, hard, to wake the party up to the risks of a Warren or Sanders run. Wake up Dems. Progressive Socialism is not a winning platform. Perhaps in 10 years, but not today.
7
An articles like this is essentially push-poll journalism. It's a propaganda piece to steer voters away from Sanders or Warren.
I expect we'll see a lot more articles like this in the coming months, as the business-as-usual branch of the Democrats tries to head off a presidency that threatens its wealth and power.
12
I would rather have a Trump victory than vote for Biden. I’m not going to start voting Republican-lite. Either we get real change - medicare for all - or burn it all down. Trump 2020! Yay!
8
This is stunning. The worst president in anyone's memory, and absolutely the worst person anyone alive has seen in public life -- and there are entire states trying to advance him.
Climate change and planetary extinctions are things we need to be concerned about, but an electorate that would actually vote for this person is a bomb we cannot build any shelter from.
15
@Feldman
There's nothing stunning about it when you realize that who's in the WH has ZERO impact on most people's lives.
Ironically, the people most complaining about Trump are the ones who benefited most from his election and are doing absolutely fantastic financially - minus, of course, the "shame" the bear every day from watching non-stop an undignified and rude orange person.
They would have no problem with him if he just went to finishing school to attain that patina of passive aggressive politeness you find in Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi.
1
@Viv This is ridiculously cynical Viv -- we are all highly affected by the lout's withdrawal from a broad collection of international achievements -- treaties and resolutions and all manner of diplomatic renderings. CAFE standards, immigration continuity, human rights, health care, national debt, etc, etc., ally support, general decency role model, etc etc. jesus Viv, what on Earth were you thinking?
3
Interesting data here. Consider that this is with Trump being a well-known entity while Warren has yet to receive the "treatment" from all the dark money that favors the GOP. Nominate her at your own risk.
3
What is wrong with North Carlineans? The goal HAS to be to beat Trump because another 4 years of this would destroy the little decency that is left in this country. I would gladly see a progressive like Warren or Sanders win, but I will vote blue no matter who. Unfortunately, I live in CA so basically my vote is useless with the asinine electoral college.
7
> "An analysis of the 205 respondents from the six core battleground states who support Mr. Biden but not Ms. Warren suggests that she might struggle to win many of them over. "
Haha what ! NYT polled 205 people and came out with a statement that sounds like it reflects sentiments of people in six different states !
These polls don't matter. From what I remember, every single poll had Clinton winning last time around. When Trump won, all these media pundits were left with egg on their faces. These polls are conducted with a sample size so small that its not a true indicator. People can lie on polls too so there is no way of detecting that.
Dont worry about polls ! Dont trust these polls.
6
It doesn't matter one bit who wins the White House as long as the Senate remains in the hands of the Republicans. This exercise is nothing more than mental gymnastics.
4
Apparently there's no need to hold a full national presidential election. Just let the 'sliver' of swing voters in places like Madison, Kalamazoo & Youngstown decide and be done with it. Nice college try: the 'Stable Genius' loses the popular vote by 6-7%+ and still wins it.
Maybe someone should sponsor a whole wack of young (or not-so-young) Democrats to move to a battleground state next year to spread out the vote? Might take only 538 votes.
2
Trump is fond of threatening voters, telling them if they don't vote for him the Democrats will destroy their lives.
Here's on along the same vein, and to the same Trump voters...
those of you who voted for trump and identify with the Carrier workers, auto workers, coal workers..I got news for you.
If you vote for trump again he is going to destroy your lives.
How?
Because he's not going to make your jobs come back.
You've already been city-slickered by a genuine con man.
In the old days, such snake oil salesmen would flee town before the townfolk caught on and readied the tar and feathers.
Did you notice, by the way, that trump is already planning to get out of town by moving to Florida?
Hmm.
Go ahead. Continue to be a sucker.
Just my prediction and threat, just like your man does daily.
8
Your polls also showed Hillary in a walk right up to poll closing on election night.
Joe will drop out after his finishes 4th in Iowa and New Hampshire.
7
Nixon was not well liked in '72 ( he barely won in '68) so the Democrats ran left leaning George McGovern against him and he lost in a landslide to the Richard Nixon nobody really liked ( Tricky Dick). High probability that this will happen again.
4
For those cheering for a Warren 2020, please be mindful that her leftist populist "plans" might entertain the liberal fringe of the Democratic Party, but they won't fly at all with moderates or in key states.
As Plosi's said in an interview with Bloomberg: "Those liberal ideas that fire up the party’s base are a big loser when it comes to beating President Donald Trump".
She was taking in general and did not name anybody, but we who she is talking:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-02/nancy-pelosi-is-worried-2020-candidates-are-on-wrong-track
Trump would ridicule Warren as he did with Hillary and as we've seen with the Pocahontas thing. He won't debate her on her plans or policies at all. He would do all he can to awaken the misogynist anti-liberal "prejudices" deeply seated within some voters, something that he cannot do with Biden.
6
@The Realist
If they didn't resonate with people, Sanders wouldn't have the largest numbers of individual donors in the most geographically-diverse areas.
People don't throw money out just to get the Bernie Sanders show.
There's nothing surprising about Pelosi's comments. After all, it's easier to wag your finger at the masses while catering exclusively to the needs of Facebook, et al who finance her campaigns. It's a lot harder to meet the working homeless in her district and spend as much time talking to them as she does in the swanky offices of tech firms.
3
@The Realist
In healthcare in particular, poll after poll overwhelmingly proves you wrong.
3
"The margin of sampling error for an individual state poll is plus or minus 4.4, except for Michigan at plus or minus 5.1 points." In other words, virtually every result here is well within the margin of error except for Warren v. Trump in Michigan.
The DNC needs to not get lulled in to believing once again that our most popular potential party nominee with the best polling nationwide can therefore win.
Let us not forget that Hillary won the nationwide popular vote over Trump by just shy of 3 million votes in 2016.
The Electoral College system is still in place and will be in 2020. Our enthusiasm for progressive changes must not deny certain cold realities that we will be facing.
I believe we can bring back many 2016 Trump voters from the so called swing states to our party at election time but not if our candidate's policy proposals seem so far left that it scares the heck out of them.
It's OK to hope for the future but better to be prepared to win first.
4
@Mr. Bantree
Sorry, Trump voters will NEVER be back. They support racism, hate and corruption.
I'm a Warren fan. But if these polls in the battleground states don't change in her favor, I'll be nominating Biden.
Warren needs to temper her plans, and perhaps her demeaner, with something more realistic in the near term. It's nice to imagine we could have Utopia, but it is a democracy (with caveats) and ultimately the people will vote their collective will.
5
Why even read the Upshot or Nate Cohn’s reporting? What was your prediction before the 2016 general?
“The Upshot put Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the Electoral College at 85 percent” according to POLITICO.
The first Democratic primaries haven’t even happened yet. There are so so many variables that to even publish something like this is an obfuscating of the public discourse, and another tired attempt to try to rally the weary Democratic base around Biden.
13
Positively stomach churning, and no wonder Trump has gone to the lengths he has to to try to take down Biden.
I admire them greatly, and it pains me to say it, but Warren or Sanders as the nominee gives me great, great pause. Biden is far from perfect, but if the question is who has a chance here, I think the answer is clear.
The stakes couldn't be higher.
8
Bernie or Trump. Either get a mostly honest politician who backs his words with actions or vote Trump and burn the house down.
Unfortunately, things probably need to get really bad before those "white, no coll" voters wake up. (which, btw, is why Republicans don't want free college, it would mean the end of the republican party). If we don't elect someone trying to make serious, drastic and permanent changes, not only should we let things get bad, but we should also encourage it with a Trump vote.
Sorry, I can't follow Warren because she's just ripping off what Bernies been saying for a long time and doing a better job of marketing it. But I get the sense it'll be another Obama, lots of far left promises with perfectly moderate follow through.
Biden just represents business as usual. Well, business as usual means stagnating wages, a disappearing middle class and a widening wealth gap while the cost of living, medical care and education continue to skyrocket. This creates an untenable situation where democracy and our form of capitalism risk complete collapse. Business, as usual, has been happening since the mid-'70s. It also means the worlds going to continue to burn. Climate change will get lip service and we'll just be that much worse off in 4 years.
Bernie walks his talk. Bernie or my vote goes to Trump.
3
If trump is allowed a second term the damage to the Environment will be irreversible. Is your loyalty to Bernie more important that our planet?
3
And as Democrats continue to use congress to attack the President his support will continue to grow stronger.
The clowns are actually doing more to help the President than harm him.
3
@John Gilday Yes. Trump's attempted extortion of a foreign leader followed by obstruction of justice should be ignored. How dare congressional Democrats hold him accountable.
And no, his support will not grow. Nor will it be diminished. He will be successfully and justifiably impeached, then Republican senators will claim his offenses are not impeachable and not convict, then everyone will vote pretty much as we've already decided we're going to.
1
I don't find this article scary, rather I'm pretty confident that Trump (or, Pence) will lose.
The reason? Trump has never stopped campaigning. But on a national level, the Dems for 2020 have barely started.
Also, Trump will get impeached, if not removed from office, and this will expose the pure corruption of the Republicans.
8
Polls in the battleground states should send a shudder down Democrat's backs. We are all a bunch of fools if we think people with good private insurance paid for by their employers will vote for Warren's or Sander's Medicare For All. Why are so many of my fellow Democrats prone to self destruction? Some type of hybrid government health system alongside the traditional insurance model is the best we can hope for now.
4
If the choice is Trump or Biden. I vote for Biden. If the choice is Trump or Warren/Sanders I will not vote. If by happy circumstance the choice is Kasich or a Democrat I vote for Kasich
6
This needs to be a wake up call for readers and voters alike. Midwest readers have been trying to tell readers in blue strongholds that going further to the left may cost democrats the election. The polls show it.
Nominating Warren could cost us 2020, and remember: if democrats don't win the Senate, nothing she is promising will happen.
6
In this poll, administrators started with a target of 650 interviews in Michigan. Midway through, they gave up and reduced it to 500, because they just couldn’t get enough people to pick up the phone and talk to them. As a consequence, in the methodological notes only nerds like me read, the institute writes that in Michigan, “results should be treated with an added degree of caution…results in Michigan are highly variable depending on weighting choices.” Is that in the article? Of course not – the Michigan results are listed first!
Here's my favorite sentence: "But on average over the last three cycles, head-to-head polls a year ahead of the election have been as close to the final result as those taken the day before.” This provides an impression of accuracy while obfuscating that the fact is the opposite of the implication: state-level general election polls in November 2015 were just as wrong as they were in 2016.
There were systemic sampling and weighting issues in the 2016 cycle polls, but mostly it's that state-level polling is harder than ever to conduct with integrity. State-level testing of this bunch, a year away from Election Day, is especially silly: you have a sitting President, a former VP, a former primary candidate, and a Massachusetts senator just introducing herself to primary voters. This is less than useless – it's misleading.
6
Please, someone, tell Biden to run a better campaign? Warren Medicare for All plan is going to cause big trouble in the general election. Bernie missed his shot in 2016 and now is looking like a spoiler. Biden even in Michigan should be a wake-up call that he needs to shake up his campaign. Like it or not I doubt if Mayor Pete is going to get through South Carolina. The popular vote is not enough to get through the states we need to win in the electoral college.
4
“But on average over the last three cycles, head-to-head polls a year ahead of the election have been as close to the final result as those taken the day before.”
This could mean two very different things, depending on the order of operations. Is this stating that the average difference between the polls a year before and the results has been less than the average difference between the polls a day before and the results, or that the difference between the average poll a year before and the average result is less than the difference between the average poll a day before and the average result?
The former would mean a lot; the latter, not so much.
Voters *in the states that will decide this election* seem to be looking for a pragmatic, left-of-center moderate. While I am enthusiastic about Warren, not enough voters *in the states that will decide this election* are.
Biden? He's barely there. there is not a soul on earth excited about Biden's candidacy. Not even Biden.
It's time to give Amy Klobuchar another look. I think she could beat Trump fairly handily.
5
I wish they published the age of the people pulled.
3
Biden will be eviscerated by Trump.
Hunter Biden has ensured it.
6
Sequel -- I love your play on words, since, of course, a true understanding of the state of things goes like this:
Trump will be eviscerated by Biden (already has been).
Hunter Biden's reputation smear at the hands of Trump has ensured it.
1
@Ken Admire your fealty to truth, but ... young Biden's "principled" defense of a convicted Romanian corruption artist is what dragged Giuliani into the Ukrainian thing. And Giuliani's inheriting that defense from Louis Freeh is what caused him to realize that Trump had a basis for attacking Joe Bident and going after that fantasy Ukrainian server with one rock.
In "real" truth, Biden and Trump both look like hypocritical office-holders who will do anything to preserve their status.
1
Among other things, Trump represents the complete takeover of the American political system by the entertainment industry. No conventional politician of either party can compete with his complete domination of the electronic information world.
Trump is a direct product of the entertainment universe. He came to politics by way of Page Six, Fox News and NBC'S The Apprentice. He is the Frankenstein monster that escaped from the television laboratories and devoured the political world.
The news media, owned and operated by the giant entertainment companies, such as Comcast, Warners and Disney, made a Faustian bargain in 2016 to publicize Trump 24-7 in exchange for all the increased revenues, ratings, advertising and book deals he delivers.
He has sucked all of the oxygen out of the political media universe, leaving conventional politicians gasping for fumes and whatever crumbs the networks choose to dole out.
This bargain with Trump has paid off handsomely for the entertainment industry and its on-air talent. As much as they may dislike Trump personally, it will not be the end of the world for them if Trump is reelected.
We are now living in the dystopian information world prophesied by Orwell, McLuhan and Neil Postman (in his book Amusing Ourselves to Death).
Two plus two truly equals five.
8
This quote sums it up for a good portion of the population: “They want to be socialists, and this is not a socialistic country,” she said. “This is a working country where people go out, do the best that they can do, find jobs. I am so sick and tired of having to support other folks. We can’t be equal.”
For people that are voting on “instinct” or shallower interpretations of a particular politician’s position (Bernie = socialist), they’re going to go with the devil they know.
Bernie /Warren are likely to do well in the primaries, but could suffer the same fate as Clinton in the general, and we can’t afford that.
If Biden continues to be lackluster, I sincerely hope more people can get behind Buttigieg, Klobuchar, or Harris. We need more visibility for these three, without the far left candidates sucking all the air out of the room.
4
AMericans, at at least too many, are in love with power, ignorance, stupidity and greed.
3
Please! NYT is doing the same they did 2016. We all know that Bernie / Warren are the preference of most democrats , specially the young crowd. I can not understand why NYT, MSNBC, CNN... keeping telling every little piece against Warren/Bernie Medicare for all. Nobody said you’re going to lose your insurance. You can Keep trough your job if you want. Many nations has government and private. Why people are so selfish ? Why criticize and punish the most vulnerable citizens that never had any decent healthcare plan and dentists insurance. ? The NYT, and others network , should be HONEST and talk about how the elite, the financial institutions and corporations should pay more taxes. Also the times would make a big favor adding a big News in the first page and criticize this:
“” For Fiscal Year 2019 (FY2019), the Department of Defense' budget authority is approximately $693,058,000,000.””How about this money could benefit the public HEALTHCARE and public education? PLEASE ! Stop with the nonsense critics of Bernie/Warren . We DONT want the same . Trump and republicans abused the system. Democrats, specially moderates will not do anything to help the Inequality. Focus on what is unfair for the majority of Americans.
6
All these old people who are voting him in will be dead when the earth implodes and the young will be left with this mess. It makes me so very sad.
5
Biden/Warren. Done.
3
why does this poll contradict all other recent polls.....by a wide margin.....
1
These are tiny samples and Nate Cohn, as we all know, was completely wrong in 2016.
7
What the heck is wrong with voters in my state?
2
Despite his "so-called", yet, failed expertise at statistical analysis for elections, Nate Cohn has now firmly established himself as the "anti-progressive" wing of the MSM whom , in terms of attempting to confirm to the reader a corporate/establishment centrist candidate is the only way to go, countless times, his analysis has proven to be, at best, questionable.
For the record, Nate Cohn was WRONG in 2016. WRONG in 2018 and he will be WRONG again.
6
Ok, this feels a little overblown. We're a YEAR away from the election. No one has actually voted for any candidates in any primaries yet. The Democratic field is still super crowded, so there have been no head-to-head debates and the Dem candidate hasn't had a chance to consolidate support yet. (Surely, it's reasonable to assume a certain level of ambivalence among Dems when there are 20 candidates dividing up all the energy and money.) There still have been no general election debates.
Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by the tiniest of margins, in a year when a lot of black voters stayed home. All three states turned around elected Democratic governors in 2018.
Unless there are a lot of Clinton voters or non-2016-voters or young people who are going to come out for the first time for Trump in 2020, I'd say this is still going to be a contest.
This analysis just furthers people's confusion about polls. A 2 percent lead when the margin of error is /- 3 points translates into no lead at all. The accurate analysis says that the difference between the candidates is -1 to 5 and there is no statistical way to determine who is really in the lead.
Conduct this analysis with all the data and the result is that, in most cases, the races are simply to close to call.
Polls taken a year from the November 2020 election mean little-to-nothing. It's a snapshot of the public's mood at best, at the time the poll is conducted. People change or make up their minds. Opinions shift.
Reading the comments, it's apparent that a lot of us NY Times readers do live in a bubble. It's also apparent that unless articles like this convince people support a moderate, Trump will win all the states he won last time and the Electoral College will award him a second term.
In the precinct where I vote, Clinton got 85% of the vote. Trump is despised, and the small percentage of people who voted for him (and probably still support him) generally keep it to themselves to avoid social stigma. Most Demos I talk to want to nominate Bernie, but are warming to Warren.
Unfortunately, my precinct won't decide the election--and neither will yours, unless you live in Michigan, Pennsylvania or another swing state. And the fact that polls show Warren losing to Trump in most of those states should give us pause.
I do think that nominating a fire-breathing progressive could motivate younger people and people of color to register and vote Democratic. I also think that the net effect of this would be to increase the popular vote total for the Democrat and hand the Electoral College over to Trump.
It's all about the swing states. Nominating a "progressive' who wants to levy trillions in new taxes is not going to get Pennsylvania back in the blue column.
6
@Joe M.
Think again, there is considerable number in Pennsylvania who are suffering as a result of Trump's empty promises of returning the steel industry to what it was 30 years ago.
@Deus I'm going by the poll numbers in this article, and according to them, Trump beats both Bernie and Warren in Pennsylvania, but Biden beats Trump. But maybe are different in your bubble?
The REAL name of this game is "Money in the pockets of the voters"
All of the other disagreements between candidates and political parties takes a back seat with the average american voter.
This happens to be true (For better or worse)
Biden has a chance because he is best known and carries the black vote.
The other candidates (No matter how good) are not well known or trusted.
If it comes down to "Feelings" Biden has the best chance.
If it comes down to "Money in voter's pocket" Trump has the best chance.
And, for Realism---
In our current american society, "Money in your pocket" beats "feelings" every time.
He’ll win easier than last time as Dems knock each other off or Wall St and Insurance cos. Do it for them.
Heaven help us all!
3
I think the Democrat voters get to pick who will be the nominee. I did not think I would like Warren but I am in awe at her intelligence, thoughtfulness and articulateness. Sure to some Medicare for all sounds scary but it will be a compromise and think of all those other countries who have just that. A year is a long way and lots can happen.
5
Am I the only person who kind of feels like Trump losing to Warren or Sanders would almost make his 2016 victory retroactively worth it?
If Clinton had won in 2016, I sincerely doubt we'd be talking about which version of universal healthcare is the best, or the Green New Deal, or any of the other ambitious progressive policies most Dems now support. Losing to a cartoon villain might end up having been the best thing for the party, country, and world, if it means Dems tack left and actually start addressing the real problems facing the country and planet. If we end up with Biden, who I frankly like even less than Clinton, it will have been a colossal waste of a real opportunity.
6
Wow..... No, it would not make Trump’s 2016 victory retroactively worth it.
1
What worries me most about Warren is that she has many of the same personal characteristics that Hillary Clinton has and they contributed to Hillary's loss in 2016. Both of them come across as more than a little hectoring and shrill when speaking. Their main goal in their speeches is to overwhelm people with detailed policy proposals. Trump had no substantive detail to any policy. He campaigned on slogans--and racism. I don't want a candidate like him, but I also don't want a candidate whose appeal is limited to the same people who voted for Hillary.
4
If Democrats persist, yes, persist, in nominating Warren they will bear the responsibility for Trump’s re-election in 2020. And if they persist in a fruitless effort to impeach (and they will not succeed in the Senate) they will further energize the Trump base. The elites may all agree that Trump’s Ukraine quid pro quo is an impeachable offense. What they don’t understand is that the majority of voters are not college educated, they do not understand or appreciate out constitution, and they think what Trump did is just politics as usual. In turn, they believe the impeachment inquiry is also politics as usual.
I am a lifelong Democrat, but will find it hard to vote for Warren, with her pandering promises that she cannot keep. Her promises are the equivalent of Mexico paying for the wall. We need to nominate Biden and fight Trump at the polls in November. That is the only way we can send him packing.
6
@Mary Ann
You have to be living in a "Mr Smith Goes to Washington" bubble land to think that trying to find out what your former & current opponents got up to from anyone who has info is NOT "politics as usual"
For all we know some of the attempted hacking i 2016 & the ads came out of the Ukraine & was funded by the Biden son's buddies
I want to know what in gawd's name the son of the Vice President was doing cozying up to groups, factions & companies that are not on our Christmas card list.
Out of 7.600,000,000 people in the world those companies in the Ukraine & China couldn't find anyone for their boards other than the US VP's son?
His name alone buys them credibility and access.
Obama & Biden should immediately have distanced themselves - as making a statement that Biden would have no involvement with any matters to do with either country or the industries those companies are in. PERIOD
ANything else was "politics as usual" - paying for access & credibility - pay to play
2
General elections are not about choosing the best candidate, but the least objectionable. The Democratic nominee has got to give enough Trump voters "permission" to vote for him or her. Stop talking about taking guns away. And go ahead and finish the wall. That neutralizes two reasons for people who otherwise view Trump's behavior negatively to vote for him. On health care leave employer-provided health insurance alone, but offer to expand eligibility for Medicare to 55. Protect Medicare and Social Security from the Republican cuts. Talk about programs to help small privately held businesses. Talk about making retirement programs better. No giveaways like total student debt forgiveness. Talk about how the rich get richer at the people's expense. Use Trump as an example of how they get away with it. Tell a good and evil story. Forget complex plans. Offer plausible, straightforward solutions to problems. Demonstrate Presidential decorum. And then time and time again remind the voters how Trump failed in all his promises from 2016. The chaos. The insults. His secretiveness. The election in 2020 is about defeating Trump in the Electoral College, not about who is the most progressively pure. That is the goal, and should be the only goal of the Democratic party. Take away the reasons people might vote for Trump while holding their nose.
5
This is the profound tragedy of Warren's candidacy for the president.
Trump would win the electoral college against her.
So her candidacy is futile at best and profoundly tragic at worst.
5
The only thing that can beat Trump is raw authenticity, emotion, someone who can appeal to the same lizard parts of the brain that he does.
Nobody voted Trump because of what he could do for them, their favorite policy, or what he could do for the country. They voted because of how he made them *feel* - validated and heard.
Unless Democrats suddenly develop a never before seen discipline to really "vote blue no matter who" this is where we are. I don't think anyone in the field can deliver the required "feeling" except Cory Booker, who is Obama redux and polling nowhere. Sanders can among his base but that is just not enough.
My hopes are pinned on Trump's old age.
2
Looking at the actuarial tables and taking his recent heart attack into account, there is the very real possibility that Sanders may not survive election night, or inauguration, let alone his first term. These are just the statistics.
Although that topic is considered taboo, this is what will be on voters' minds. Voters are not stupid, at least for the most part. They go through a reasoning process when they decide who to vote for.
4
All objective signs point to a second term for Trump. As the judiciary becomes ever-more partisan and the democratic institutions that are supposed to uphold the rule of law continue to fail, fair-minded thinking Americans will have to decide what kind of public life they want. Will progressives continue to tear down those who are their side and the right side of history, for not being ideologically pure enough? Will they realize that they can no longer appeal to the Supreme Court to uphold basic human rights, as those rights are being repealed? Will the left finally start to understand that their political opposition is not simply misunderstood, but is composed of a group of completely amoral and misanthropic people who seek an autocratic theocracy? This has been obvious for the entire lives of minority groups in America. Will straight white people finally get it, that Hillary Clinton was absolutely correct in her deplorables comment? It's my hope that the failure of the impeachment process to provide any satisfactory results will light a fire under those who care about the rule of law and human rights. This is a war not for the faint of heart.
3
Make no mistakes. Trump could easily win re-election. The thought of this circus for 4 more years is sooo depressing. Get out the VOTE, work the phones , canvas the neighborhoods, talk to people. We can not be complacent! Let's take back the healthcare issue, environment, climate change, decency of the American people!
2
Might as well start a new country if he wins. This type of division and support for an autocrat, a leader capable of rising to power through lies and illegalities, destroying the institutions and devastating the constitution - this is how civil wars are begun. I pray for the American spirit.
3
Trump won in 2016 because he had a strong brand. He was clear what he stood for and what he was going to do. That he wasn't going to deliver was maybe predictable but his "brand" won.
Democrats need to build back their "brand" as well. Bernie and Warren are the two candidates that have the strongest (although similar) brands in that they have been saying the same thing consistently for years. I have no clue what Biden stands for, except maybe a return to a gentler, more bipartisan time (which ain't happening).
The most telling stat in here is that among White, No College voters, there is no difference between Biden, Sanders, and Warren. Trump beats them all by the same margin.
So blow them off and focus on the core democratic base of younger, more diverse voters. Get them pumped to vote in record numbers. I have a hard time believing Biden can do that. Given Sanders' health scare, Warren is the best shot at building back the brand.
1
This is depressing. If the tyranny of the minority that Individual 1 represents continues much longer, I have real fears that the country will not survive without bloodshed. If the population votes for Individual 1 again, we deserve him.
All I know is that anyone who supports Trump at this point in time is my enemy. And I intend to treat them as such.
I’ll certainly be looking for Trump yard signs in my neighborhood. Rest assured that, at the very least, they will get an earful from me.
3
Despite it being an official Red State now, Michigan has always been that way. So no surprise
The most divided State in the Country for over 5 decades and an example of a horrible entrenched mentally on BOTH SIDES. The most beautiful State Geographically but the people??
I think that line-up is optimistic. If Warren is the candidate, Trump will win in a landslide.
As much as I think Biden should retire, a Biden Buttigieg ticket may be the best chance to get rid of this embarrassment in the White House.
1
Warren is determined to lose the middle, and thus the election to Trump. She needs to look up the word "compromise". I'm a centrist Democrat and she scares the heck out of me.
5
@Dan Barthel
I know what you mean! I am a Centrist Independent, Warren is doing the best she can to convince me that I should better sit out the next election.
Despite the fact that I find it imperative to get rid of Trump. There is just not much of a choice when one has to choose between the devil and a daemon.
3
My presidential vote in Oregon is useless.
Thanks Electoral College.
This year I'll vote for Mickey Mouse.
It absolutely does not matter.
My vote does not count.
Thank you Electoral College.
4
All the reasons for not voting against Trump amount to nothing, what in the world is wrong with these people?
I’m so sick of Americans touting about our great democracy! I am so sick of hearing about the SWING states! I’m sick of hearing about Red states and Blue states! How about everyone having a voice!
How can you call this a democracy when the majority of the population wants gun control or a raised minimum wage but one selfish man in the senate blocks all legislation. One man! How can you call a country that is gerrymandered everywhere democracy?!
If we lived in Canada or Norway for example we wouldn't be having impeachment process Trump would've been gone long ago with a non-confidence vote.
According to the article I’ve referenced below the United States rates 21st in the list of democracies!
We need to get off our high horse about our constitution and democracy and make some changes that would bring us into a REAL democracy! It’s time for some radical changes!
https://infographic.statista.com/normal/chartoftheday_12771_the_best_and_worst_countries_for_democracy_n.jpg
4
It is too early in the game at this point to focus on the election horserace. A lot is likely to influence voters' choices once the impeachment proceedings are public.
Right now, much as I like the Warren & Bernie, I think the Democrats need a centrist to get the Independent and Never-Trump voters to vote for the Democratic candidate, so the Electoral College vote is more secure. However, I think Biden is too lackluster and has too many skeletons in his closet to generate voter enthusiasm.
I wish more attention were being given to Buttigieg and Klobachar.
Also, too much press horserace over Warren's health care plan, and not enough attention to climate change, rising economic inequality, our horrendous tax structure, Trump and the GOP's skyrocketing deficit and its effects, the quality and cost of education in this country... Most important there needs to be a detailed criticism of Trump and the GOP on these and other issues of importance to most Americans.
1
Ultimately, the Democratic Party will not pick the President and Vice President candidates, rather it will be the primaries' vote counts at the national convention.
Afterward, whoever the candidates who will be from the Democratic Party will need to concentrate to appeal to the electorates of the half-dozen swing states, and stress why Trump has not delivered nor can be trusted. Not easy, but that is what will be needed. Everything else will not matter.
1
Interesting and thorough analysis. It looks as if, at root, the right have achieved exactly what they've achieved in the UK and many other countries in Europe and around the world - a culture change that makes anyone on the left all but unelectable. The fact is, white (and non-white) working-class people without a college education do *not* favour the social changes of the last generation or so. Gender equality, gay marriage, and other compassionate equality issues that many of your readers (and myself) take for granted as being progressive are seen by them as dangerous threats to their identity and way of life. And they won't vote any longer for people who support these issues and at the same time support a globalisation of the economy that they see as a threat to their jobs (and again, their way of life). Those on the left can choose either to give up on compassionate equality causes, or seek to persuade this slice of the electorate that they're not threatened by them (against a torrent of effective propaganda from the right). If they can't do either, they will never see power again.
5
This speaks to the fact that the Dems, even though they started out with more than a score of candidates throwing their hats in the ring, do not have a single one with significant crossover appeal. Not a single one, as things stand. Hopefully there is still time for someone else to enter the contest. But the problem is that the DNC itself stands in the way of making it possible for a candidate of the kind I'm describing to have a fair shake at garnering the Dem nomination for standard-bearer. Say what you want about the Repubs, and there is much to say, but at least their RNC powers that be let Trump win the primary contests last time around fair and square, while Wikileaks shows that the DNC did everything possible to make sure that the one candidate, Bernie Sanders, that polls showed repeatedly could handily defeat Trump would not be allowed to do so. I don't think Bernie this time around can work the same magic, especially with his health woes. But I don't think anyone else currently vying for the nomination can either. Harris, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg and their like try to be all things to all people, and so stand for nothing. Meanwhile Biden is just not inspiring, and Warren and Sanders not only are splitting the progressive vote, but also are showing that they don't have crossover appeal this time around. Makes me sad and woeful.
6
@Christopher Trump won without crossover appeal. All the old rules need to be thrown out. This is about energizing the largest base possible in the key states. Not winning over the moderates.
4
Why consistently downplay Sanders’ strengths? He will drive voter turnout in the critical states. Let’s not make the same mistake as last time!
3
It's pretty awesome that Senator Warren beats Trump in Arizona. She or whoever else just needs Arizona and one other state and that'll put the 46th president over 270.
5
The bottom line is that many Democrats live in bubbles, online and in real life, that are not reflective of this country overall, and they do so gladly, willingly, and knowingly. These same Democrats are then outraged, truly outraged, when they see that the voters who will decide this next election may not subscribe to the same beliefs that have been espoused in their respective bubbles for years on end.
Here is some advice for everyone reading this comment. Log off the internet and stay off it for weeks, months, or even years if possible. Go take a drive outside of the downtown sections of major metropolitan areas, and talk to people. You will find that the random guy or gal at the gas station outside your subdivision is much more representative of "likely voters" than the people who spend all day posting online, who are more likely to be teenagers under 18, unregistered adults, or people who do not even live in this country (perhaps even Russian, Chinese users paid to rile up friction in our country), all of whom will likely not even be voting in the next election.
The biggest issue facing Democrats today is that our voters do not understand how unpopular many of our candidates and ideas are. We are not "the popular party." At best we are the "slightly less hated than the other side" party.
8
So excited that we're getting more of the "but we need to pick the electable candidate" stuff that we got in 2016 re: Clinton v. Sanders. Because of course polls a year out accurately predict what will happen and how, and reality is unchangeable, and mainstream media outlets have all the answers and know what is best.
Please just remember that the chattering class of the mainstream media four years ago spoke as though Clinton would be unbeatable because of the supposed blue firewall of the Electoral College. And that these same clowns now speak of the obvious advantage Trump has in the Electoral College.
4
If Trump gets re-elected I will have lost all faith in America. I will be out, there are so many great places to live in the world.
11
Martin -- ditto.
1
Trump won the battleground states in 2016 due to a poor get out the vote campaign by Hilary. As demonstrated these last few months by surge in the polls in the upcoming primary states, Warren runs an effective campaign. Biden is terrible at running campaign which is why he is constantly floundering. Winning elections is far more dependent on the get out the vote and the ground game.
2
Nonsense, if the American electorate thinks that this man is the best option for President in 2020, we are doomed as a nation and the rest of the world should also be very concerned. Of the three democratic candidates listed, it's Ms. Warren who will excel at explaining to the great majority of Americans why her progressive platform is the best chance to have a future, any future.
5
The really bad part of this is that in every battleground state, you can be sure that some combination of Russian, Saudi, and/or Mercer malicious election interference -- including voting machines, voter registration rolls, and vote aggregation systems -- will shave some unknown number of points off whomever the Democratic candidate will turn out to be. And that doesn't take into account the nasty voter suppression tactics that have become de rigueur for the GOP. Remember: If your candidate doesn't get the Democratic nomination, don't use that as an excuse to absolve yourself of voting. Turnout needs to be of historic proportions. If you don't vote, you're voting for Trump.
6
Hillary's E-mails and "likability" vs. Trump's racism, campaign violations, Russian collusion and a host of other illegalities. Emphasizing the former and ignoring, to a large extent, the latter. The Times is at it again. When Warren provides health care to all, at a lower cost than one is paying today, more tightly regulates runaway industries and Wall Street, cleans up the environment and puts us back on the path towards democracy and international respect, we'll see how her "likability" ratings improve. An expected, disappointing, piece.
2
Corey Booker bores me to tears, but he might be progressive's best shot? Why? Because he would bring out black voters who sat out the 2016 election while not simultaneously alienating moderate midwestern white folks. You need the white moderate and the black vote in Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, etc. to win in the Midwest. Booker has his own flaws, but aside from Biden, he might be more electable than the others.
I personally prefer Warren but I am afraid that she will lose in the general election and it won't be close. It's not that she's a woman; it's the type of woman she is -- the intellectual woman with no makeup and an ex husband, the SMART intellectual woman with sound ideas that nobody will bother to read, they will just see her hairstyle. This is not a fair standard, but I think to large numbers of men and women, these stupid things matter immensely. Progressives have got to be able to think with two minds. Don't abandon the core issues that animate us, but also understand that in national politics, we are in the minority as to social issues. We can't be afraid to take half a loaf sometimes. Incrementalism works.
3
At first, I read and clicked on a headline I thought said:
Trump is Highly 'Contemptible' in Key States.
I think the authors mistakenly substituted the word 'Competitive' accidentally. The former seems more appropriate.
2
It's all about TURNOUT. There is no room for anyone to stay home.
3
I have no faith in polls, especially after the last Presidential election.
2
To cite Clinton :It is the economy stupid
"America has two economies—and they’re diverging fast"
Brookings Insititution
Mark Muro and Jacob WhitonSeptember 19, 2019
"Democratic districts have seen their median household income soar in a decade—from $54,000 in 2008 to $61,000 in 2018. By contrast, the income level in Republican districts began slightly higher in 2008, but then declined from $55,000 to $53,000."
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2019/09/10/america-has-two-economies-and-theyre-diverging-fast/
The wages of those that manufactured goods in the US fell as they had to compete with cheap foreign labour, or their jobs disappeared altogether. As, e.g. the jobs of GM workers in Lordstown,
To date, the Democrats have not come up with a plan to fight this.
The Democrats need to formulate a plan for
1. More better paying jobs . Manufacturing jobs, not
Wall Mart greeters
2. More job security. No firing on a dime
3. Lower cost, employer based health insurance.
4. Ending illegal immigration
Solutions exist for all three (Import duties on products were US workers are competing with low cost workers abroad, a bonus malus system on lay off copied from the French, copying the German system where ALL insurance companies are not profit, enforcing employer checks)
If they do so, the Democrats will beat Trump - in a heart beat
2
Maybe, if the media would quit playing favorites, a terrific candidate like Amy Klobuchar could unite democrats and sway disgruntled Trump voters. I could see Booker, Yang, Gabbard, as VP or better yet, Claire McCaskill. Give her some space on your pages, please.
4
Remember how flawed Nate Cohn's predictions were in 2016. Yes, he was very much on target both times President Obama won. But in 2016 he failed. So why would anyone trust what he has predicted here?
1
Should I just move to Canada now?
If 3 years of non-stop lying and transparent treasonous criminality aren't enough to open people's eyes in this country then what will?
We've reached the point where, if Trump was caught on tape sharing our national security defense plans with Vladimir Putin, the entire GOP would backup him up, calling it a "nothing burger".
This isn't just bad judgement, or political differences, this is unmitigated mass-insanity.
5
When all you hear is one point of view over and over something different is indeed shocking. Maybe the first step is to be willing to listen to another point of view rather than shutting down any dialogue. There is a remote possibility the liberals aren't right on everything all the time....just a possibility. You would think they learned after the Hillary wake up but people have put their heads in the sand even further. The only unknown is the post election analysis of "what went wrong" when Trump wins again. Maybe this time there will actually be an anlysis rather that "they are all racists"
1
I really wish all the people who say that Warren is "not likeable" or that all the female candidates are "not likeable" would take a long hard look at themselves and ask WHY they think that. If the person in question spoke and acted exactly the same, but had different genitals, would their opinion differ? I'm betting a lot of the time it would. This is sexism, pure and simple, on the part of both men and women. They should be ashamed of themselves.
Moreover, if likeability is such a big thing, how on earth does Trump get any votes at all? He's about as unlikeable as can be.
4
@KristenB In reality you are absolutely right. I'd turn and flee rather than shake his hand. He epitomizes ugliness, ignorance, and vulgarity. But I do remember that the way he presented himself on the apprentice was as a bit of a bad boy, but one who could get things done. That's how he came across to the Trump voters I know. It was, of course, an utterly dishonest presentation.
I hate to say it but some of those Trump voters have to be convinced to change their minds. Most of them are people with a suspicious attitude toward Harvard professors and even more suspicion toward a woman who is a Harvard professor. If Warren is to be elected she needs to learn how to appeal to those people and I see little evidence that she is able to do that.
In addition her Medicare for all plan is a vote killer. It's not pandering to look at whom you need to vote for you as you develop your plans. A public option would be very popular; totally eliminating our current insurance system would not be.
1
Dear NY Times, I'm old enough to remember 2016 when all your polls and surveys had it EXTREMELY wrong. So, I'm really not interested in your predictions.
Thanks, Voters
4
"Nearly two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president against all three named opponents."
Sorry, having a very hard time believeing these people actually exist
At best, you stumbled upon a Republican lobbyist or Republican srategist, because those are the only people who would say something so contrived
2
The republican strategy of starving the educational system has paid off in spades. The only support they have is in uneducated white men. Demographic shifts will eventually kill the strategy, but will it be too late?
2
Wow. Even after all the horrible things that trump has done and he is still projected win re-election. America, you are truly unwell.
5
The Times have everything to gain by a moderate getting in over Sanders or Warren. Considering Warren's Medicare for All plan and Bernie's emphasis on wealth redistribution, the Sulzberger family (NY Times' owners) would stand to lose massive amounts of wealth. Taxes don't discriminate, and these people know it. No well-defined sampling method is offered here which doesn't particularly sit well when "55% agree that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against minorities" and "41% consider themselves conservative". From what methodology the Times did offer, the surveyed group was overwhelmingly 65+, a group that historically votes moderate. This data is easier to acquire because these people are easier to get in touch with, so of course the NY Times rolls with it because again, this supports their owners' agenda. If we continue to let corporate interests impede progress in this country, we'll be in the same boat as 2016. Please stop hurting America for profits
3
So you have the choice--whether by decision or omission--between a lying, racist, sexual assailant and a woman who seems "unlikable" for reasons you "can't quite put your finger on." And you choose the assailant?
Is Trump is so "warm," with his robotic thumbs up and plastic smile at a mass shooting photo op? Come on ...
I shudder to think about what this says about the way women still view themselves.
2
Hey Democrats: Don’t take a knife to a gun fight this time.
Toughen up. Nominate with your heads, not your hearts.
Otherwise, the wilderness beckons.
Again.
3
Hopefully this will be a terribly inaccurate prediction, like the meter on the home page saying Hillary would win.
1
In polling, wasn't the same mistake made before the favorite in 2016, Hillary Clinton, lost to the Television appointed Trump?
Who will the C.I.A. Television industry elect is what I want to know. That is where you should be analyzing.
And what about Elizabeth, another woman? Did we forget how Hillary did?
I like Biden but I'm not voting this time. He militarized the police.
And do we really want to live in a nation where half the population wants a nightmare leader like 1930's Germany?
3
One year out is too far to make commitments. The NYT fails to factor in the Impeachment process just beginning. This just looks like another in a long series of stories intended to scare Progressives away from Warren. Why? Because her policies will hurt the ultra rich and big corporations such as the NYT. I have not forgotten how the NYT went after Hillary for her email misstep as if it was a smoking gun.
2
This article is a classic lie about it's subject and itself.
For three years This newspaper and the rest of the liberal press have shouted at the top of all of your collective voices, an unremitting hatred of the President; and, the fact of his election. You've tried every propaganda trick in the book, and invented a few new ones (like the whole load of garbage about impeachment), all to achieve what?
Donald Trump within the margin of error of his victory in 2016.
And your lie of silence at this fact is as bad as your's and the Deep State's lie's about "the light at the end of the tunnel" in the war in Vietnam, fifty years ago.
You hope it won't be noticed if you just keep quiet about it; and keep up the endless distractions. But buried in the froth and obfuscations is the following:
"...Democrats would probably need to win three of the six states to win the White House, assuming other states voted as they did in 2016 — an outcome that is not at all assured..."
You've spent many billions of dollars for nearly three years, screaming vilification and hatred against Donald Trump, and anyone who supports him, yet:
"...the Times/Siena polls find that the president’s lead among white, working-class voters nearly matches his decisive advantage from 2016. This group represents nearly half of registered voters in these states, and a majority in the Northern battlegrounds that decided the last election..."
In other words, your lies have not worked.
1
Elizabeth Warren moves us beyond the rural-urban divide
https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2019/10/03/elizabeth-warren-moves-us-beyond-rural-urban-divide/3835715002/
2
There does not seem to be any hope at all for our country---another democratic republic is dying and too many people are still elated that the "taxcut" provided them with a couple more six packs of Bud Light this year----
2
All these polls predicted Hillary Clinton's win in 2016 with 70% to 99% probability.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/technology/the-data-said-clinton-would-win-why-you-shouldnt-have-believed-it.html
2
Can someone convince Michelle Obama to save us.
No wonder why he broke the law to have Ukraine investigate Biden
Smart move, if he can get away wih it
Compare this headline with the one regarding the Iowa poll last week. If this were Warren with these numbers, the NYT would be exalting Biden as the next coming. Ridiculous
A senile incoherent mumbler; a Euro-socialist cut from old cloth and peddling unattainable dreams; and lastly a Caucasian woman who tried to pass as Native American for personal gain and now has adopted fiscal fantasy as her identity. And one of these septuagenarian has-beens we expect to defeat the canniest fox in D.C.? We're in for four more years of this nightmare....thanks a lot to the Democratic party for giving us a selection of Hillary 2's. We're doomed.
5
Look at ALL the polling data and judge for yourselves.
Look at Michigan and Biden vs Trump
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
2
@Meg
Thanks!
Goodbye america
2
The only poll that really matters is the one on election day. This NYT/Siena poll is wrong.
1
41 percent of the voters who support Mr. Biden but not Ms. Warren say they agree with the statement that most of the women who run for president “just aren’t that likable...”. One female respondent called a female presidential candidate "super unlikable".
How about some serious discussion of female voter misogyny? The 2020 election looks like a #MeToo moment to me.
1
Judging by the comments, progressives need to run Warren in order to satisfy the preference for that sort of candidate. It is similar to the urge to run Muskie in '72. Or Goldwater in '64 on the other side.
Then, after an epic fail, spend 20 years, a generation, in the desert of republican dominance, until finally Clinton brings the party back to the center in '92.
This cycle needs to be repeated, i.e. give in to hopes and dreams, then come back to reality after a long period of soul searching in the desert.
1
@blaine With C02 levels this high in the atmosphere- this is not 1964 or 1992. Its a whole now era, unlike in our entire history
Biden for president and Buttigieg for veep. Biden runs for one term, and that's it. He'll secure the votes from independents in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, possibly Florida and North Carolina as well. He'll also do best with the African-American vote, which was down 6% in 2016 from 2012.
Buttigieg adds youth, smarts, and military service, and appeals to younger voters who might view him as a likely presidential candidate in 2024. Independents can support him as well, as he has a strong resume and represents the crucial Midwest.
This election will largely be about "the devil you know vs. the devil you don't." Elizabeth Warren has plenty of passion, but she's a candidate from the northeast and her tax and healthcare proposals are (sorry to say, but true) just too far out there for voters from the Midwest...and, I suspect, many independent voters.
The object is to get back to the center in 2020 and take back the Senate. Biden/Buttigieg would be best positioned to do that. The polls are telling us what we need to know, and we should be paying attention.
4
@hdtvpete
Yes, yes, and yes.
Waaaaay too early to get twisted about any one poll. Several other polls show a completely different picture and the variability both within and between polls is very high. Let's wait and see what's up after some primaries.
3
Things are just getting started. We have a long way to go. I wouldn't take this poll too seriously.
3
The Democrats have sold people/American voters down the river with massive outsourcing and globalization and illegal immigration (as much as the Republicans if not MORE) but love to portray themselves as progressive because they promote moral relativism and identical politics. I am amazed that millions of people still buy their sales pitch.
1
Let's be practical, nobody wants a person with credible plan to provide healthcare for all to succeed. Social benefits are a big "no no " as it increases the sense of security among people. America needs to look at a mirror to see what it has become.
Business trumps everything. Trump helps businesses
succeed. As a president he is supporting businessmen who have the money and insatiable appetite for profits.
He is doing his duty as president serving businesses who provide employment to people.
People who are effected by appalling healthcare costs outnumber the businessmen.
People must think about the future and vote wisely.
Tax cuts have helped fill the coffers of those in power. While others are paying their earnings to insurance companies so that they can keep lobbyists happy.
Reality is after Obama healthcare was passed, insurance premiums have outpaced all economic indicators.
Irrational exuberance.
1
And if similar polling cautions hadn't aired in 2016, giving us Hillary as the "safe bet," we might have a Bernie Sanders presidency right now. We should remember that before we give too much credit to these polls, and this paper should exercise more humility when pushing this line of argument. Most landline answering, swing-voters' answers are based on little more than "gut" at this point in the race, and things could change once they see Biden's deeply un-convincing debate style in action. There will be chants of "lock him up" on the right and deja-vu all round, and--best case scenario--another democratic presidency that leaves the working class struggling, alienated, and ready for another Trump.
2
This is very discouraging. It appears Trump has a a good chance of being reelected and the Democrats only chance is if Biden is the nominee. Can Biden sustain a grueling campaign against a man who will be nonstop with his lying and deceit? He will get more help from the Russians and his base won't budge with their support. The impeachment won't go anywhere. We need a miracle.
5
This is alarming news. And for me the most alarming is that Republicans stick with Trump. Where is Republican leadership? Why do Republicans in Congress not lead their constituents to see that what Trump did with Ukraine is corrupt, without a doubt, and that our country will not tolerate that, even from s president in their own party? This message, this leadership, needs to come from Congress, not Trump, not Fox. If Republican Senators and Representatives continue to wait for polls to change, there’s a good chance we lose our democracy. If Trump wins in 2020, he’ll only be emboldened to break the law.
3