Fully agree
3
All the Saudi oil is not worth the life of one American soldier.
8
...said Chamberlain and Daladier, when Hitler demanded control of Czechoslovakia. The Saudi regime is repugnant. The Iranian regime is a Theocratic dictatorship that fervently believes it ahs the right and responsibility to govern all Muslims and will do so forcibly, either by direct action (blowing up neighbors in Saudi) or clandestine (arming Houthis, Hezbollah, etc.). If we want to avoid WW III, the answer is not to shrink away and make excuses, whatever the rationale. There is no credible argument that Iran will contain its own power. When such governments are left unchecked - when they are appeased - they continue to expand until they bring war to you, or to a nation you cannot abandon, and then they are stronger.
War is horrific. Administrations, recent and back in times when the naked use of power was expected, have abused and misused American power. None of that dismisses the fact that Iran is expansionistic, regressive, repressive, authoritarian and theocratic and that they openly express their own, manifest destiny to govern the Muslim world and expand that to become the entire world.
There is nothing anti-Muslim in recognizing the need to contain Iran, just as there is nothing anti-Semitic about refuting Israeli government policies that are unjust.
Let us not invite greater tragedy by merely delaying inevitable conflict in the false hope of peace.
2
Look, these rich boys with their Italian suits and cars don’t want to fight. Better hire someone not of royal blood to do the dirty work.
7
Thank you, Joe Kennedy.
2
“ Saudi Arabia “wants to fight the Iranians to the last American.””
plus
Israel “wants to fight the Iranians to the last American.”
9
Yes! Trump has demanded our allies in NATO pull their own weight, unraveling our base of power in all global conflicts. But now acts like an attack on the Saudi Aramco oil field (jeopardizing the MBS IPO) is Pearl Harbor.
What mindless insulting double talk.
Yes! Trump stupidly barged into international treaties and has caused massive chaos, destabilizing almost every region he touched. The idea that he could shmooze his way into 'great deals' with Syria, Russia & North Korea by personal charm is beyond naive. It's idiotic.
These regimes are not like sleazy NY real estate developers or a TV game show, but that is all Trump knows. To paraphrase Colin Powell on Pottery Barn policy:
"Trump broke it, but can't buy it or fix it."
4
Not only withdraw from these theocratic dictatorships but impose global sanctions on them as well!
3
Maybe if we would respect the rights of other nations in the region besides Israel and the Arab states we could get some fair compromises and a chance of peace. All we have is power politics for oil and we will kill as many people as it takes. We have enough military power to wipe them out if we have to to get our way.
2
Americans need to commit themselves to NEVER fighting another war for oil, OR for the conflicting religious beliefs of ANY other country in the world. Never have another young American, or any innocent civilian, die for this stupid, murderous, self-serving idiocy.
8
Iran has twice the population of Iraq and would be a much more formidable foe than Iraq was.
If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to respond militarily to the airstrikes on its oil facilities, he can go ahead with the kingdom’s own fighter jets and missiles purchased from the United States.
Well said Nick. However you must remember America's leader is a rabbit and rabbits run away.
However, if Mr. Trump starts a war, Iran's first and only goal would be to wipe out my country. It was the only reason they bombed the Saudi oil field. They need a reason to invade Israel and Mr. Trump may just give them one if he isn't careful.
3
How we "get out of this muck" is by divorcing ourselves from this petrochemical dependent lifestyle and prosecuting those who promote it. We need carrots and sticks, pitchforks and torches. We have these tools, we just need to pick them up and use them.
I am looking at the photo of those two smug criminals in some palace somewhere in the dessert. They are talking maybe about how much the bombs meant for Yemen will cost. Not particularly concerned about whose children will be obliterated and maimed, just about the money.
We are already their subjects, like an addict to their dealer.
3
No we're not. It's absurd to bomb Iran for the murderous Saudi regime that suffocates 24 million Yemenis. Iran is a terrible actor in the middle east, the only country that humiliated the mighty USA in 1979.
What did W Bush do for that? Handed over Iraq on a silver platter to Iran! Iran fought for 8 long years to oust Saddam Hussein, but could not. Finally, Khomeini more or less surrendered. Then the worst US president of modern times did what they could never have achieved (Obama wasn't that great; created ISIS Caliphate & destroyed Syria!)
This is not the time to bomb Iran for the sake of for the brutal regime of MBS's Saudi Arabia.
4
We aren't just the lapdog of SA, we are wagged by the Israeli tail too. The cause is deeply rooted in how Americans are carefully kept from being honestly involved in what the US does overseas: American corporations, not American people, get their bidding done at our State Department.
Wall St. loves the Israeli tech sector, and they love Arab oil as long as we are major partners. Nothing matters here but money to corporations. American individuals would have things very different.
So all of this rolls back around what has been explained by Sanders as a government that is owned and operated by the few billionaires and their corporate lackeys in finance, and few sectors of business. They invent a huge fog of a backstory too dense for average people to see past, then they offer up two politic Even Kristof the humanitarian is red pilled by US propaganda; Iran is some world threat to peaceful life but the US is not! Tell that to the people of Venezuela suffering under the US world wide banking mafia restrictions and people in Cuba still dealing the fallout of ancient Cold War history.
4
Nicholas, Salutations.
In Amercan Courts of Law, witnesses swear to “tell the truth; the whole truth, and nothing but the truth”. I read your column regularly, and regard you as a good journalist. But this time you have let me down. Let me explain.
In your piece on Iran, you write: “….. the lack of any kinetic response to attacks on oil shipping in May and June, or to Iran’s shooting down of an American drone in June”. You mention: (1) Iran’s reaction to British provocation that led to Iran’s kinetic response (caputure of Iranian Tanker while passing through the Straits of Gibraltar). (2) You mention Iran’s downing of an American drone, but you make no mention of the drone’s violation of Iranian Air Space and taking live pictures of Iranian naval vessels.
A few lines later comes the super-patriot in your assertion: “Yes, Iran is a threat to international security”. Really? What about a nation that is trying to exercise muscle power, hegemony, halfway around the world from their homebase? A nation that supports mad-dogs (not mad-dogs and Englishmen) but of the Corruption-dom of the Saudi Family
In other words, you are being parsimonious with the truth.
1
"We’re Not the Saudis’ Mercenaries" , think again!
The Sunni and the Shia have been at war for centuries before there was a US. What hubris on our part to think that we can resolve the conflict by taking sides. Trump is foolish at best to think that he can act in a value free manner (ignoring the murder of Khashoggi, the genocide in Yemen), and not destroy the US reputation around the world. Those who have been neutral previously would regard us with contempt as nothing better than mercenary. Those who believe that we are run by Jews (the anti-Semitic crowd) would run it out as proof of their beliefs being right.
I do not want my soldier grandson's life put on the line for any of this bigotry. The Iran-Saudi conflict is not our issue. It should not have happened except for Trump's arrogance that he could get a better deal than the one Obama signed on to. Enough already of his arrogant ignorance.
2
We aren’t Saudi Arabia’s mercenaries? Think again, sir.
What could be more foolish than taking sides between Shiites and Sunnis? Between Iran and Saudi Arabia? One might have thought that lessons were learned in the Bush-Cheney disaster in the Middle East from which we still suffer and which we still refuse to take seriously enough. The only nation which has dared to enter the Middle East with a
"will to power" and with some success is Israel, that is to say, Jewish messianism to correct the dehumanization of the Jewish people by pagan and even more so by Christian hatred over many centuries. And to do so Israel has had to accept many things its own religion and philosophy urge against. Yet it has done so. America does not have the means, the beliefs, the desperate need that the Zionist Jews had. It had better beware.
The commenters here are the same kind of people who thought appeasement of Hitler would work in in the late 1930s. Nobody in 1930s Europe wanted a major war, except for the Nazis. All it took to drag the whole of Europe into WW2 was one leader who really wanted it.
The Iranians seem similarly determined to have a war with the US. These provocations are going to escalate. Perhaps, if the Iranian nuclear deal was revived, it might be possible to stuff the genie back into the bottle, but Trump isn't going to flip flop on that.
The wreckage that was displayed shows a jet powered cruise missile similar to the US Tomahawk and another delta winged missile. If fired from Yemen, the range is at least 750 miles. Accuracy is good enough to hit a large target like an oil refinery. Clearly, they are capable of penetrating Saudi air defenses under some circumstances. They probably fly at very low level so they are below the horizon when viewed from air defense radar sites. Airborne radar planes like AWACS should be capable of seeing them, but for some reason did not.
This is a very dangerous piece of technology. If the Iranians can mass produce them affordably, they could devastate industries and cities throughout the Gulf region.
A Saudi-Iranian conflict without US involvement is that last thing we need. Neither state could strike a decisive blow with conventional weapons. Both states would race to acquire nukes, and the first state to go nuclear would win the war.
Once the body bags start coming back home to America, maybe THEN people will start thinking twice before voting for a Republican ever again.
2
good column
Since we could not buy Greenland perhaps wee should buy Saudi Arabia
1
As Nicholas Kristof accurately writes, the current crisis is due completely to Trump's missteps. The Trump administration is totally incapable of working out a peaceful resolution to this crisis. The only good thing is that for all his bluster, Trump is only a paper tiger. Perhaps, that reality will help us somehow muddle through this mess and avoid a war.
2
Trump will come and go as a president leaving us to hold the bag. By his irresponsible decisions to leave the world community he has lost his right to speak for us and to fight a conflict he himself started with his withdrawal from the Iranian Nuclear agreement. Trump stupidity should not be our compass as it is bound to lead us over a cliff which will lead to deaths of Americans and economic and moral collapse.
2
Obviously any escalation of strikes involving oil will have an adverse effect on all countries, whether it's Yemeni rebels or Iran hitting Saudi Arabia, or the Saudi's or USA hitting Iran. Saudi Arabia has purchased, from the USA, enough F-15SA aircraft and the assortment of destructive accessories that go with them to hammer Iran or Yemen or whoever else they get into a tiff with on their own. Our involvement should be to deescalate this situation not make it worse. This pitiful world needs oil from Saudi Arabia and Iran. The nuke agreement is not necessarily linked to this, it may be, but it may not. Everyone seems to have dismissed the Yemeni rebels who claimed this first attack even though there is evidence that the drones used were not that expensive or that sophisticated. Make peace, not war.
Mr. Kristof rightly wrote, "...It is Saudi Arabia that kidnapped Lebanon’s prime minister, caused a schism with Qatar and created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis in Yemen."
May I add that it was Saudis and not Iraqis or Afghanis that made up the bulk of the 9/11 terrorists.
3
Isn't it time that another Republican President handed an incoming Democrat President another war on his way out?
1
Hard to chuckle at all this but what if the Saudis and Iranians destroyed their oil infrastructure and themselves in the process, who does that work for? If we can avoid getting dragged in we may be able to watch a twofer here. Two more Mideast nations becoming failed states in the process would certainly make someone happy, most likely some folks in Tel Aviv and their millennialist evangelical friends from the US.
I don't see the Saudis coming out on top without American help. They haven't been able to subdue the Houthis despite all the American arms they have. They weren't able to stop the missiles that destroyed their oil infrastructure either, something wrong there in the Kingdom, perhaps over reliance on the Americans for support.
Bottom Line looks to me as if we are giving the region away, if they can't count on us they will count on someone else, such as the Russians or the Chinese. Another reason to have stayed in the deal with the Iranians.
"This is a struggle between two misogynistic, repressive regimes that are both destabilizing the region."
What has Iran done to be called that. The only problem with Iran is they oppose ethno-racial Zionism. For that they are being burned for decades. False equivalency with the thugs who call themselves Saudi royals is uncalled for.
There is no shred of evidence that the Iranians were involved in the Saudi attack. The debris of drones and missiles Saudis showed were all from stuff that Yemenis had displayed in July as they possessed. So, all of a sudden the Saudis backed off, Pompeo, and DoD backed off, and all are looking for a peaceful solution. Maybe this gang of misfits figured out their guru Bibi Netanyahu may not come back, and he may even end up in a slammer, or something else. If they get in a war they wouldn't know which way to turn, without Bibi around. In the meantime Saudis need to end their Yemen genocide in order to survive. Call me a dreamer, but I see MBS' days in Saudi Arabia is coming to end.
2
If we were mercenaries, we would be charging them for the protection they get from us. We are chumps being conned by the House of Saud.
1
Do we really want to sell our flag and our blood the Saudi royal family? Who are these people anyway?
Once upon a time I was recruited to work in a brand new hospital in the Asir Mountains of western Saudi Arabia. The hospital was designed by a French company and built by Koreans. The hospital compound was run by an American company. The entire compound, think off a small US town, employed people from the United States, the UK, France, Sweden, Australia, Jordan, Somalia, Egypt, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, The Philippines, Korea, and Yemen. I may be missing some. As far as I know there were no Saudis employed. They were the patients. At that time (1980’s) the Saudis did not actually do anything. They did not know how. They paid someone to do it for them. In their eyes we, from the janitors, dishwashers, and truck drivers to the most skilled surgeons, were their servants. As far as I can tell, little has changed.
Unfortunately, the current occupant of our White House, thin skinned and impressed by flattery and shinny bobbles, is easily manipulated. If, say, an extremest (Iranian?) Muslim group sees an advantage in warring with the US for their own purposes, they have only to poke him a couple times in sensitive spots. Nothing would delight Mr. V. Putin more. The price of his oil would soar . It would be a no cost win-win for Mr. P., and a very high cost, no way to win for Mr. T. “Art of the Deal” indeed.
4
"We are in this mess because Trump abandoned the landmark 2015 Iranian nuclear deal."
It is always contemptible when "armchair warriors" advise us on which war to fight next and how. They know no limit to fighting a war in which they will not participate, except by default.
So it is also with neo-liberals (net-libs) like Mr. Kristoff, who criticize "abandoning the landmark" 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. This is why we now have all these problems with Iran!
Brilliant! Sure got my subscription worth today.
Um, Nick, whether you liked, or didn't like the Iran deal, the fact is that Iran continued working on intercontinental ballistic missiles, and took sanction relief as a means to pump lots of peony into such peace-mongers as Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Islamic Jihad. What's a country to do with some extra cash?
So, Nick, it is is really Trump-hating overkill to blame the current state of affairs on anyone except the Mullahs, and perhaps their Western apologizers.
After all, Nick, under the Obama deal, in a few years the Mullahs would have had nukes with delivery systems. How was that supposed to work out?
One last point. I just finished watching Netflix's series on the heroic Israeli spy, Eli Cohen. The entire Cohen family, being Jews from from an Arab country, were far darker than Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, or AOC. How is that the NYT anointed Tlaib as a "woman of color," in the context of the "squad," but not Jewish women?
Make us equal please.
1
Don’t discount Netanyahu’s influence via Kushner and Greenblatt.
Don’t underestimate the Saudi influence either. Remember that the Saudis saved Trump from financial disaster more than once. Trump is beholden to the Saudis.
1
How is it possible to write this article about a possible war with Iran and not mention that it is Netanyahu who has pushed for this for years. Defending the Saudis is not the US responsibility, there is no treaty. Why should any American care to spend money or waste the lives of our troops to defend Saudi Arabia against anybody?
2
This administration is making America look like Saudi's peons, like we work for them. They are not a part of NATO. They are not our allies, not really. We call them that because they have oil. Let them deal with their problems and leave the US out of it.
I have no sympathy for Saudi Arabia. They have shown their true selves too many times over the last 20+ years (including before 9/11 and their terrorism phone banking) and it's not a pretty picture.
2
Oddly the time is right for diplomats, real ones to solve this riddle. Everyone gives up something. The Saudis give up retribution and agree with the Iranians to a political settlement in Yemen both will respect. Both agree to a cease fire and help to rebuild Yemen. The US agrees to rejoin the nuclear deal with Iran agreeing to longer time frames, inspections etc. Also limits in missile development technology and ratchet down being a menace with Hezbollah and Hamas. The US agrees to lift sanctions and not impose any during the term of the agreement without the other parties confirming a material breach by Iran. Withdrawing and imposing sanctions help lead to the attacks on the Saudi oil facilities.
In general terms no solution in Yemen destabilizes the region. Boxing Iran in economically produces the same dynamic and applies friction to the Saudi-Iran Sunni-Shia low level warfare. Ambitious but now everyone needs and is looking for the off ramp.
1
Unfortunately, the author and most of the readers would make a better president than Donald Trump. Thank you for this article, the Saudis are not our friends nor do they act as allies.
They do not have the best interest of the US in mind at all. They are customers of the military industrial complex and provocateurs on the global stage. Their support of Wahhabi extremism is traceable to the 9/11 attacks. They demonstrate a psychic fragility and instability and engage in murder without due process. They should have no say in US military campaigns.
7
Couldn't he just reinstate the treaty he just broke if he names it after himself?
1
Trump loves thuggish regimes. In this case he thinks he is showing his machismo by choosing sides. He could learn a lot looking at the Iraq-Iran war, USSR-Afghanistan war, US-Afghanistan and US-Iraq wars before jumping in. We fought longer and spent more than any nation. So much for knowing when to get out.
3
The US imports 10 million barrels a day of crude and products and exports 7.7 million barrels a day of crude and (mostly) products. 10% of our imports come from Saudi Arabia.
I'm sorry, Nick but the USA is indeed Saudi Arabia's 'mercenary,' and has been for quite some time. Let's remember that 9/11 was caused by Saudi nationals. The US invaded Iraq and Afghanistan while the Desert Kingdom pumped oil and kept a low profile. What's wrong with this picture?
36
The Iranian crisis is one Trump created by backing out of the US treaty with Iran. If he tries to address the crisis by military action, it will be a disaster.
4
I am very glad we did NOT retaliate for losing a drone. No piece of hardware is worth human lives. Trump needs to dial back the bluster, not step up the military involvement.
3
Very thoughtful piece. I hope someone is listening.
5
Nicolas Kristof writes ''If Iran was behind the attack on Saudi Arabia, that was a serious provocation.''.
Do you not think that when the United States ripped up the Iran Nuclear agreement, that was a major provocation. When the United States re-imposed economic sanctions depriving Iran of any economic benefit from the agreement, was that not a serious provocation. When the United States threatens the companies of its allies with huge fines if they continue to do business in Iran, is that not also provocative. When the United-States threatens any country which would continue to buy Iranian oil with sanctions, is that not a provocation.
Trumps' bully diplomacy is inherently provocative. Diplomacy means compromise. In Trump's approach, because the United States has the most powerful military and economy, it can impose its' will. That only works if you are Sparta.
Faced with Pompeo's maximum pressure campaign, Iran has little to lose. If it can not export its' oil, why not prevent others from doing the same.
A war would likely lead to a recession. Trump has sanctioned himself into a corner.
10
"...getting out of this will require skillful diplomacy, which isn’t something the Trump team has much demonstrated."
I'm thanking some kind of supreme being that I was drinking a cold drink instead of a hot drink when I read that sentence. And that's not humor - the fact that the Trump administration doesn't employ any skilled diplomats, because they have fired them or they escaped, is something we should all be terrified of - both for this threat of war and all other dire situations.
7
As an Iranian-American with family Iran I can tell without question that the "maximum pressure" campaign is working and that the Islamic Republic is the weakest it has been since the Green Revolution. The Iranian people yearning from freedom from the yoke of the mullahs far prefer Trump's approach compared to Obama's appeasement.
2
okay I understand and appreciate your point of view. But what are the steps that will lead around Ian people to Freedom?
Kristof nails it again. Let Iran and the Saudis wage their own war. Keep the United States and its troops out of it. People of the Middle East have been fighting for thousands of years without resolution. An Iran-Saudi Arabia war won't end it. Diplomatic intervention by the United States won't end it. American troops are unlikely to end it -- in fact, since 1945, the United States has waged five major wars — Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf War, Iraq, Afghanistan — and only the only clear success was the Gulf War in 1991. We should let the countries of the Middle East determine their own fate. Ah, but what about the oil? This is yet another problem that could be solved by developing green, renewable energy right here at home. If only the Trump administration were as hawkish about science as they are about war.
7
The Constitution gives Congress sole authority to declare war. Both houses of Congress passed a resolution to deny the Saudis aid in Yemen. Wasn’t this a denial of authority under Congress’ war powers? How can the executive branch veto such a resolution? After all, the executive was denied permission for aiding in war with the Saudis. Does Congress have sole power of war, does the Constitution have to be followed? Maybe I missed something here, but it seems that Congress has ceded its power to Trump and that the constitution of the United States should now not be capitalized because it is no longer a governing document and has been relegated to just a piece of paper by inaction by Congress and an overthrowing of the rule of law by Trump.
3
We have sold hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of military equipment to the Saudis. This is their fight. Why hasn't Saudi Arabia run to the United Nations?
6
I want to hear what you would do if you were the US president now.
Do you really think that even if Iran attacks Saudi Arabia evidently, the US and its allies should not fight with Saudi Arabia against Iran?
1
Why should we be the middleman? If MBS wants American mercenaries, let him give Erik Prince a call.
4
If only the world's "experts" could sit down anf figure what everybody wants they could think about how everybody could get it. This whole business of you hurt me so I'll hurt you mentality has been going on since the beginning of civilization and it's obvious that it never works.
1
Mr Kristof,
I hate to say it but you are right on both counts. Our Potentate(s) is indeed corrupt to the core who will gladly grab handouts of money, openly or surreptitiously, for himself and for our defense industry. While our young men and women are shipped to fight as if a bunch of legionnaires or mercenaries. Poor people children would lose life while the decrypt rich would enrich themselves - some more.
4
Of course we are the Saudis' mercenaries. Just look at what's happened since January 2017, especially.
2
Since China, Japan, India, South Korea, Indonesia & Pakistan buy the majority of Saudi oil- why aren't they forming a coalition to protect & retaliate for Iran's attack ?
8
I just hope that articles such as yours do not lead Trump into military action...just to prove that he is not just bluster.
The entire Saudi situation is like El Chapo's cocaine empire in macro. They've got the drug that we all need, and we might as well be begging under a bridge to keep the supply. We'll do anything, and overlook any abominable deeds by our dealer. The slobbering fealty that American government and industry shows to Saudi Arabia is obscene. It's not just Trump-- every president in the modern era has figuratively prostrated themselves before the cameras to the "king" (tyrannical dictator when they're not an ally) of this paragon of repression and brutality. Name a supposed ideal of America, and Saudi Arabia is the opposite.
The fact that we as a species on Earth have shown so little imagination in weaning ourselves from our oil addiction is unconscionable. Any honest assessment would deem Saudi Arabia a hostile state towards America. We should walk away completely.
3
We sold them plenty of arms. There is no good reason to act on their behalf.
7
"without the Iran nuclear deal, all options are bad. "
Non sequitur.
Unfortunately, the nuclear deal is another bad option. The fact that Kristof doesn't even mention arguments to that effect is an indication of magical thinking.
"Unfortunately, without the Iran nuclear deal, all options are bad. We should be searching for ways to return to the agreement,"
No. That agreement allowed Iran to get to this position in the first place. It financed everything they are doing, including their nuclear submarine program and ICBM program. Trump is correrct in NOT taking the bait and initiating a larger scale conflict. The sanctions will do their work over the next decade.
During that time period, we should focus on making Iran's aggressive tendencies very very expenive and difficult to maintain. We do not need to engage in direct military action to do that.
Snakes are dangerous and bite as they struggle. Iran is a dangerous snake; it is critical to maintain crippling sanctions and clean up after Iran's showing of its true colors; destructive and aggressive as always.
1
If Trump starts a war with Iran, Congress will finally have all the legal justification and popular support they need to Impeach.
4
Yes, a picture is worth a thousand words.
Look who's sitting straight-up and erect, as if starched by the power he holds and the wealth he commands. And now look at the other suited guy who's ever so heavily leaning out of his seat, with an ear to ear smile, as if hoping for a Bakhshish or a favor from the Sheikh. I only hope he was not asking for a tip for our country, in our name.
I know we are in the midst of a rule of a bunch of uncouth officials whose lust for money and power far exceeds their respect for the nation's principles and dignity, still, it shames to see how deep we have gone down. History will not forgive these guys - nor should we. Must Cast Your Vote In 2020.
3
Yes, we are not but Trump and his extended family have been bought, with "cash"!
1
"That’s the problem with hawks. They plan out their chess games and triumphantly plot a checkmate without appreciating the basic lesson of Sun Tzu or Clausewitz that the other side also gets to move."
That's also the problem with bad scripts where only the men are actual characters. Unfortunately this is not just a bad movie.
1
Mr. Kristof, Trump is owned by three groups:
Saudi Arabia has bought his loyalty outright.
The NRA has bought his loyalty with votes and campaign contributions.
Russia has his loyalty because of what they know about him.
5
One must not forget that even if the Saudis take on Iran, they're flying jets we sold the Saudis and bombs we sold the Saudis. Exactly what's happening in Yemen. The United States cannot pretend its hands are clean.
The world has had more than enough proxy wars. If the Saudis want to tangle with the Iranians, let them. "Let them" means no US involvement---troops, weapons, training. The Saudis are not automatically our friends because they have a lot of oil.
6
Not sure how Kristof can declare we aren't the Saudis' mercenaries after three years of logistical and material support for the disastrous and unpopular bombing campaign in Yemen. Open war with Iran on behalf of the Saudis would be horrible, but surely wouldn't represent a qualitative change in how we approach the region.
The US-Saudi relationship has always been defined by inertia and blank checks against the backdrop of hugely divergent interests that policymakers hardly stop to consider. It's only heightened now -- and the stakes are so much higher -- because 1) Trump is erratic and doesn't have a coherent foreign policy and 2) MBS operates in the same, untested make-it-up-as-you-go-along style.
This specific crisis is purely Trumpian, but it reveals a deeper, structural flaw in longtime US policy toward the Kingdom and Iran. The premises have to change. Iran is no angel, but Saudi Arabia arguably has a more repressive and anti-democratic civil society. More importantly, it's tiresome to keep hearing that Shia Iran is the "largest state sponsor of terror" when the US has spent the past twenty years fighting forces who derive money, manpower and ideology from our biggest ally in the region.
Washington needs to realize that neither of these countries are friends (or necessarily enemies, for that matter). There must be a way to influence both without hewing to closely to either and while still preventing a war. We did that successfuly from 1945-78.
3
How many weapons have we sold to Saudi Arabia? I would be surprised if we did not provide training for their military as well. Why can't they defend themselves, wasn't that the point of providing all the weapons?
I fear that Trump will jump into a war, not to prove he isn't weak, but because he needs to distract everyone from the mess he is creating here before the election.
8
We face a familiar problem. A certain segment of the American civilian leadership and a certain segment of the American electorate are quite eager to go them bad guys [whoever they are this time]. Most of the rest of us would prefer not to be at war. However, most of the rest of us are not especially committed to preventing the next round of war. It doesn’t really affect us, does it? The Republicans would never ask us to pay for a war directly, and the Democrats aren’t much better. They’ll just add the cost to the national debt. We tell ourselves that we love the troops, but we don’t love them enough to undertake any meaningful political activity on their behalf. We rationalize our flaccid citizenship, yet again, by telling each other that the troops volunteered, after all. In a sense, being sent into combat is their just desserts. They asked for it, right?
8
We are putting all our eggs in a very unstable basket by aligning so completely with the current rulers of Saudi Arabia. The royal family has never ruled with a popular mandate, and it is by no means certain they can hold onto power indefinitely. Whoever or whatever comes after the royals will certainly oppose us. That's what happened in Iran when Khomeini dethroned the Shah. We are still paying the price for our too cozy alliance with him.
6
I think the threat of war is part of Trump's "Reality Show." The problem is that the ending for this episode hasn't been written yet. Perhaps he will end the episode by showing himself as a "great diplomat" and return to some semblance of the original agreement, and then, hopefully, the whole series will come to an end by November 2020!
5
Everything in this column is Spot. On.
Why aren’t Democrats telling everyone that trump is happy to sacrifice American blood to help the state behind 9/11, when we have no obligation to do so (unlike, say, NATO) whatsoever?
You can’t make this stuff up.
10
Great piece. Trump has blundered our foreign policy with friends and foes alike. He has surrounded himself with a gang of incompetent and corrupt sycophants. I felt nauseated watching Pompeo's body language in the presence of Mr. Bone Saw.
Trump has to return to the Iran agreement but I am not sure he realizes that. He does not have the mental power to think before he acts and reflect on and correct his mistakes. Another problem is that he has no respect for the men and women in uniform and will not hesitate to put their lives in harm's way. Which will happen with any military strike on Iran.
We need to stand firm against any escalation in the Middle East. Trump is responsible for this mess and no Americans or Iranians have to die to clean it up,
13
We aren't anybody's mercenary . At least we should say that though in reality we are.
2
Iran isn't murdering and dismembering journalists abroad. It hasn't caused any famine, let alone the worst one in modern history.
It hasn't exported terrorism like Sunni Al Quáeda or ISIS.
It seems like we are a "surrogate" or "proxy" for the Saudis.
12
Saudi oil machinery is damaged by weapons made in Iran
but no one is killed.
Hundreds of innocent people including many schoolchildren are killed in Yemen by weapons made in the United States.
Whom should the world fault or sanction?
17
We're about to find out if Trump has a conscience.
He doesn't worry about killing people indirectly from long distance. That's been going on in Iran for sometime because of the sanctions. And, of course, at the holding pens/cages at the border.
But, he doesn't like to give the order for soldiers under his command to go and kill. Maybe, back somewhere in his subconscious, he knows that the Iranians don't deserve to be killed... Maybe he secretly admires their guts and their ability to pull off a surgical operation and maintain plausible deniability.
Maybe Trump looks around and says "Zarif is a piece of work. How did I get in bed with those creepy Saudis? Not to mention some of our other "friends" in the region."
2
So if Canada bombs a US target, would SA come fight the Canucks for us?
I suspect not.
9
Repeat after me Nicky
NOT
OUR
PROBLEM
Let Saudi Arabia, and it's $68 billion defense budget, take care of itself
17
Let's bomb Iran's golf courses. No one would get hurt, and how could Iran's Supreme Leader face life without golf? Ours can't
1
Or Israel's for that matter.
4
Spot on, Mr Kristof! And the picture of Pompeo yucking it up with the butcher of Riyadh is a nauseating sight.
14
You can bet trump wouldn't be so gung ho for war, if his sons were on the front lines. But they'd rather shoot elephants and giraffes, you know, something that doesn't shoot back.
15
I'm no fan of the Saudis. But an attack on their oil processing facilities harms not only them, but the various nations reliant upon Saudi oil, as well as the postwar liberal order more broadly.
It also seems reasonable to conclude that continued unanswered attacks by Iran's military or IRGC will only lead to more attacks - someone may need to punch them in the nose to get them to cease.
AFTER that happens, we can all get down to serious negotiations again.
1
"We're not the Saudis' Mercenaries." That sounds more like the denial of moral responsibility for the destruction of Yemen than a rational assessment of reality.
The Saudis are an undemocratic regime who use violence to silence dissenters and opponents. The U.S. has sold billions of dollars in weapons to the Saudis, who have used them indiscriminantly against Yemenis, resulting in up to 100,000 dead civilians. Because of the availability of drones and remotely controlled missiles, nations so equipped now are able to destroy any country on earth from the safety of their own strategic command centers. Given this situation, selling the weapons to rogue nations seems to me practically the equivalent of being at war ourselves. Iran may also be acting this way through Yemen.
The best way out of the dilemma would have been to not sell the Saudis any weapons at all. If nobody has sold them weapons, they wouldn't have destroyed Yemen.
The capacity for violence is what leads to war. If you remove the capability and force nations to send their young men to die in proxy war slaughter, the calculus gets very different and nations have an easier time of working things out without bloodshed, but when everyone arms to the teeth, then a single sneeze sets off the conflagration.
9
I have stated many times that Trump when he finally gets cornered and can't lie is way out he will start a war. He would expect then to appeal to the people to support our "president at war"
8
Are we going to let American troops die just so Trump can keep his hotel filled with Saudi oligarchs? Seems so.
9
Trump is a coward at heart and avoiding a real fight is what he has been good at for the last 70 yrs. He has bowed down to Putin and the North Koreans and is very afraid of losing in 2020--because multiple indictments await in NY state. Starting a war might not help his cause-- especially just to keep a few billion dollar deal for warplanes with the Saudi's. You never want to get into a bar fight with Trump by you side and the Saudi's may soon learn why.
5
Ain't no good guys in that whole shebang over there.
Best not to get involved with any of 'em.
9
Thank you, Mr. Kristof. We owe the Saudis nothing. Trump and his crime family might owe them, but America doesn’t.
Unfortunately, trump had to touch the Iran deal, and as we all know, everything he touches dies. Hopefully, we won’t all die this time.
5
If we are not the Saudi's mercenaries, are we Israeli's? The Reigime of Iran is our closest ally's most deadly foe. Israel and Iran are almost in open warfare these days. None of that has to do with trump's policies but with Iran's forty year war against the Israeli people.
Some wars are inevitable. We have been on a collision course with the Iranian government since they took our embassy personnel hostage in 1979.
If war is to come, better it come now, before they get nuclear weapons.
The Iranians have been emboldened by what the North Koreans have been able to get away with, but make no mistake about it, when GWB took out Sadam Hussein, he changed the balance of terror in the ME in favor of the Iranians, and that coupled with their support of the Syrian regime and the Butcher Assad and the war they inflamed with the Houthis and their recent attacks on Oil Shipping is Casus belli.
There must be a proportionate cruise missile strike on their oil production capacity, or it will only embolden the Iranians. To fail to strike them militarily for their attack against the Saudis oil productions is to appear even weaker in a part of the world where weakness invites aggression.
The Iranians also talk tough but it is not in their interest to scale up to an existential war that will mean the destruction of the Repressive Theocratic regime in Iran. We have allies in the ME for a war against Iran, the Israelis and the Petrol States. We have gone to war with less savory allies.
1
Not long ago Trump was sitting down with the murderous Saudi prince waving pictures of all the expensive military hardware his country had bought from us. But even MBS knows that if he actually used that weaponry against Iran the Iranian military would have the Saudis for lunch. Which is why he hoped to make us do his fighting for him. Luckily, Pompeo's efforts notwithstanding, Trump turned out to be half-cocked, namely all talk and no action. You're right on two counts, Mr. Kristof: Trump brought this on himself by pulling out of the Iran nuclear accord, and we are not the Saudis's mercenaries.
4
Saudi Arabia is not the only country that would like the U.S. to attack Iran. A U.S. strike on Iran is at the top of Benjamin Netanyahu's wish list and has been for a long time.
6
In the run-up to the 2012 election, Trump predicted that Obama would start a war to enhance his re-election prospects. I can't help but assume that this was Trump's take on what he would do under the same circumstances. If his poll numbers remain low and especially if they further decrease, I fear he'll do just that.
4
@Ken Katz
Of course he'll start a war; no incumbent president has failed to be re elected during war. And he desperately needs to be re elected not because he has any 'grand plan'. Because the moment he becomes a private citizen the fed, state, local charges awaiting him will bury him. But it's too soon; the horror and folly will be obvious too early. Look for this war in a year, so we are all caught up n 24/7 coverage, flag waving, various other sycophants in his cabinet and Fox news cheering, cheering ... Before the death and stupidity are obvious.
And let me remind everybody; the only thing he cares about is himself. The rest is 'negotiable' so he changes his tune daily.
2
What would happen to the worlds economy if the oil fields of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq were on fire. South of us the oil fields of Venezuela aren't what they used to be and they if given the chance will use their oil money to export "socialism" to the America's. Canada, the EU and the US wants to leave it in the ground. And Russia could use a boost in the price of a barrel of oil.
Are the powers that be really preaching end of the world hysterics over climate change or because they are trying to avoid WW3? The phrase tipping point might be better used to describe the world's political situation and we might of passed it already.
I have heard it said that in Karate, 'if you get your opponent angry, then you will win'. ..it seems to me that Trump is often angry.
3
I can't think of a surer way for Trump to lose in 2020 than to get us involved in a war on behalf of a despised and murderous Saudi regime. If this occurs it will not be story of rallying around the troops and the flag; it will be a resounding Trump loss and a short walk to an indictment and prison.
2
I'm still waiting for this guy (the incumbent) to time out, but he keeps on going. Where is the end to this mess, this nightmare? When do we hit bottom? Now our armed services are supposed to be hired killers for various obnoxious and seedy regimes. I don't recognize the country I grew up in...
5
Trump's ideal of having other country "pay for" our military assistance isn't just an insult to the patriotism and professionalism of our troops, it is a shameful re-casting of America itself, from a superpower to an errand boy.
Trump seems to believe that he is modeling himself as a sort of mafia don, offering "protection" to those who pay. But if this is his model of international engagement, all it projects is a shameful lack of morality, and a stunning level of weakness.
Another embarrassment for our nation from a man who simply has no connection to the real world, where words have meaning and actions have consequences.
6
"If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to respond militarily to the airstrikes on its oil facilities, he can go ahead with the kingdom’s own fighter jets and missiles. But this is not our fight. Nor should it be our graveyard."
Amen to that, Brother
6
Last time I looked Saudi Arabia was not our 52nd state. They were attacked, not us. They are a horrible despotic regime with their only redeeming asset being they aren't as bad as Iran. Now that we are energy independent let's not fight any more 'blood for oil" wars. Bottom line, before even thinking about attacking Iran Trump needs to get Congress' support under the War Powers Act. Hopefully Democrats will keep up their resistance campaign
3
"Iran would strike back at sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Bahrain, and it would target American troops in Iraq or Afghanistan."
Does Mr. Kristof now have a crystal ball in his drawer?
Maybe Iran would do this, but maybe it would not. Maybe it would think long and hard about such a dangerous escalation which could (not would) lead to the end of this terrible theocratic regime.
So, what a telling photo: our esteemed Sec. of State sits smiling, yucking-it-up with internationally recognized assassin (orchestrator) Crown Prince MbS. Perhaps if journalist Jamal Khashoogi hadn't been tortured, strangled, dismembered, and then perhaps treated to an acid bath, maybe he could have provided some commentary on current events. But, with a meritless scoundrel like trump as president, and an administration of incompetent, unethical, low-level performers, in place... I wonder how low we can go? There is one skill trump and his ilk ( and the GOP) do excel ... looking the other way.
4
What if the Iranians aren't lying and the attack was not state-sanctioned? Of course, there have been leaks from unnamed sources--the mother's milk of contemporary journalism--that indicate or suggest or guess that the Iranians were behind the attack. Believable? Who the heck knows?
Trump ditched Bolton because he had promised the American people that he would not rush pell-mell into dumb mideastern wars. What a charming idea: do what you promised! A new low in American politics.
There are any number of actors in that part of the world who might stand to gain, a lot, from a new mixup. Let's sort 'em out before we rush to judgment.
Well said, Nick Kristof.
2
The Saudis remind me of the loud mouthed half pints who can so often be seen flocking around the school yard bully urging their 'Friend' into fights with others, simply in order to make themselves look tough or potent. When however their thuggish but dim witted bully boy runs up against an actual tough guy who stands-up to their dubious champion, these loud mouths are suddenly nowhere to be found.
3
"Robert Gates, the former defense secretary, once scoffed that Saudi Arabia 'wants to fight the Iranians to the last American.' "
Yes, Trump has the backbone of a dust bunny. Yes, his principal urges relate to the reality TV presidency and stuffing his pockets with cash. Yes, he is ignorant, lazy, dishonest, narcissistic, racist. Based on all of the available evidence, he is not morally opposed to anything. He will do whatever it takes to hold on to his base. He feeds his base racism, lies, fear, and dust-bunny fantasies of white male strength, and the mulish, intransigence, unhinged, untethered darlings adore him for it . He is unbelievably susceptible to the latest whacky Fox conspiracy theory that has clogged his short-term memory. In reality, he couldn't care less about the lives of American military men and women. He especially couldn't care less about the lives of brown men, women and children, American or otherwise. Finally, Trump and the servile Pompeo (Worm-tongue) couldn't negotiate their way out of a paper bag, so diplomacy is off the table. The bias should be toward diplomacy and nonviolence, and not toward war and violence.
3
Saudi Arabia also created the modern Islamic terrorist movement (and the violent desecularization of several countries) by training people in many countries to believe the intolerant extremist (and historically inauthentic) purism of Wahhabi Islam.
2
What a waste of space, Nick. Trump has an ability to get a new brainwash out to Americans and they all seem to believe him. And the new one is that hitting Iran would be bad and the best thing is to say you are "locked and loaded" so you can be quoted in every rightwing piece of propaganda and all the white men can ditto their heads in agreement because they are all gun nuts.
When I learned in college about propaganda and subliminal messaging and how it totally works...America is completely brainwashed such that my posts even here sound like the ravings of a lunatic.
Guaranteed this episode is buried like every Mass Shooting. Is the Dow up?
1
You do realise you ARE allies/mercenaries for Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan in the Pacific, right?
@EC
You forgot Canada, which we intend to annex soon.
1
Trump is itching for a bit of war because his base will love it. It will be great for his re-election campaign. Lives and carnage will just have to be the price to pay. As long as it stays on foreign soil.
1
Let's be brutally honest about this farce. The only leader on the face of the earth who has consistently called for aggression against Iran for more than a decade is Netanyahu. Only Israel has the technology to carry out a drone attack like this and then pin the tail on their hated donkey. Why would Iran invite such trouble? Highly doubtful. This is a false flag operation and the US has no obligation to participate on any level.
4
Don't forget where the 9/11 Hijackers came from...
3
2017, the attack on the Iranian parliament. Trump reaction- "serves them right"! Iran like Israel can not afford to forget.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Tehran_attacks
MBS has his own death squad that kidnap, kill and dismember his dissidents. No American should shed blood for this repressive regime.
2
Fully agree
So judging from Robert Gates remarks the Saudi's have been working hard to convince America to go to war with Iran for decades. The Bush's did not fully comply. Obviously Obama was not going to send troops on behalf of the Arabian manipulators.
So Putin gives America trump. A man that is as easily manipulated as a 3 year old. A man that has spent his life doing deals "under" the table. A man that if the tax returns were revealed we would understand he actually NEEDS the money and is perfectly willing to take it. I'm sure the Saudi's believe that trump is a gift from God.
3
It's not only the Saudis who would like to fight Iran to the last American soldier. Israel under Netanyahu would also like the US to do the heavy lifting in a military engagement with Iran; he has been trying to push this for years, starting (infamously)during the Obama administration. Of course complaints about Netanyahu's push (from behind) for war with Iran generate charges of anti-semitism, so critics walk on eggshells around this debate. There is no compelling US national interest in a war with Iran, and we should resist pressures from our "allies" in the region to pursuing one. I agree with you, Mr. Kristof, that if the Saudis want to retaliate for the attacks on their oil facilities, they should do it themselves. Israel too.
3
In Yemen, the Americans are fighting the Saudi air war and the mercenaries formerly known as the "Shining Path" are fighting their ground war. The Saudi's military is more a meet and greet program for their outside fighters.
We don't need their oil, and we don't need to prop up their monarchy.
4
The US military is absolutely the private army of the American energy industry. The wars in Iraq are all the evidence you need. By creating an army dependent on mercenary contractors, military action is a way for Halliburton and KBR to get rich.
2
What happened to America First? The US cannot be the world's cop? If Trump goes forward with this, he will show that it is ok to do so for rich countries- not that the Saudis will repay us...
Still i hope he does the right thing and stays out of this conflict. Not our war.
1
As worthy a suggestion it is to call for cooperation "with European countries to get out of this muck and find a way back into the Iranian nuclear agreement," it is also a highly unrealistic one given the make-up of the decision-makers in the White House and State Department. In fact, and despite my great respect for Mr. Kristof, it seems to be more wishful thinking than anything else.
A more realistic approach, I daresay, is to find and employ someone, through the auspices of the UN, to serve as a mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both countries should be encouraged by their closest economic and/or military allies, perhaps even through the use of a carrot or two, to participate in the mediation.
I have not read that the UN has inserted itself into trying to resolve what could be a catastrophic war. But if the UN is not actively seeking to initiate some sort of dispute resolution process, the need for such intervention is urgent. For if this matter is left solely to the affected parties to resolve, the odds are not good they can do so peacefully.
It wasn't just Trump. Hatred of the Iran nuclear deal among conservative pundits was rampant. Not once though was there a coherent response as to why it was such a bad deal. The claim that the deal did nothing to prevent Iran from spreading its influence in the Middle East is true but makes no sense on 2 counts.
First, the deal didn't prevent the US and allies to invoke sanctions against Iran for these activities.
Second, both Nixon and Reagan, hardly Berkeley doves, negotiated with the Soviet Union over nuclear arms without a precondition that they stop attempting to spread Communism and Soviet influence. So why is it such a difference with Iran?
1
Saudi Arabia has intervened for the past 4 years in the Civil War in Yemen killing tens of thousands in that Country through bombs (supplied by the US), starvation, and blockade.
Millions of Yemeni civilians are starving and in the middle of the acknowledged worst humanitarian crisis in the World.
Someone finally struck back at Saudi Arabia within the borders of Saudi Arabia.
This strike against Saudi Arabia should have happened long ago. Saudi Arabia has gotten away Scott free with the most atrocious murder and actions with the backing of the United States.
Does the American public need reminding of the role played by Saudis in the 9/11/2001 attacks on the United States?
Nick Kristof is kind to refer to the United States as mercenaries for Saudi Arabia. I think Tulsi Gabbard's description was more accurate, if blunt.
But then Trump shouldn't be offended by what Tulsi said. After all, he supposedly says that political correctness is for snowflakes.
3
The ME mess dates all the way back to 1953, at least as far as US manipulation & action is concerned. When the murderous & repressive Shah was installed in Iran by the CIA, it led directly to the fundamentalist uprising & the regime we now have in place. The Iranians have every reason to distrust the US & be well armed, including with nuclear weapons, due to the unremitting hostility & actions of the US for almost 70 years now. Somehow the neocons never seem to get that the military 'solutions' just create more problems, for example the rise of extremism after the failed invasion of Iraq in 2003. Nevertheless we arm our 'allies' the Sauds to the teeth with our fancy & expensive weaponry, the same materiel that did so well in Iraq, & the Sauds use it to devastating effect in Yemen. This further widens the noxious cloud of american interventionist poison & anti Iranian fervor. Yet the neocons never learn, more arms, more wars, we must exert our authority, the military industrial complex at its most insidious & destructive extreme. Confronted with an increasingly unstable ME, one wonders just what it will take to change the US gameplan?
Instead of whack-a-mole Mid East "diplomacy", the world, through the efforts of some great leader or state or organization, can be working on resolving conflict at its base: religion. Get the different Muslim sects to create a synod-like meeting to agree at worst to respect each other's God-given blessing of life and self-expression or just live and let live; hopefully eventually learn to share and support fellow humans. The charges of blasphemy and heresy must be anathema to the Love and Wisdom of God.
1
Another excellent opinion article by Kristof. I agree wholeheartly with his opinion.
If we end up in a military conflict with Iran, it will be because Trump, MBS, and MBZ started it with Netanyahu cheering them on. Even a elementary school bully learns, you can't keep pushing another kid up against a wall demanding their lunch money and then cry foul when they push back. That has been Trump's idea of diplomacy with Iran.
Have no doubt about it, if we get into a military conflict with Iran, it will not be a one and done outcome. Iran will have no choice but to fight back with everything they have available. They will have nothing else to loose. They will attack all oil facilities they can. Military confrontation with Iran, will not happen in a vaccum and could well lead to another global recession, perhaps another Great Depression.
Diplomaticaly, U.S. creditability, is the weakest it has ever been since before WWII. Our long term allies in Europe, don't trust Trump, and fear that he is more aligned with Putin than them, for good reasons. If this leads to a full fledged war. Russia might move on the the Baltic States and the Ukraine. Our allies in the East: Japan, South Korea and Austrailia hold us in suspicion and depend on oil from the Middle East. North Korea and China depend on oil from Iran. China might move on Hong Kong and Taiwan. North Korea might move on South Korea. We will not be able to fight everywhere. Trump's legacy could well be WWIII? God Forbid!!!
1
We cannot allow our sons and daughters in military service to sacrifice their lives to protect Donald Trump's relationship with his Saudi bankers. The U.S. has not been attacked. Is it national policy to use military force to protect oil markets or customers of Trump Tower?
>>> "Is it national policy to use military force to protect oil markets or customers of Trump Tower?"
At least in regard to oil markets, that can't really be seen as a serious question. What do you think has been driving our decades-long series of military misadventures in the Middle East?
We're not the Saudis' Mercenaries? Who decides that?
Let's start with the premise that the President is a transactional individual without the restraints of knowledge, loyalty, compassion, empathy, or even principle (except for the principle of "self").
As POTUS, unfettered by those within the Executive Branch having gravitas and historical knowledge - for they have been already dismissed, additionally free of Congressional restraint by virtue of the capitulation of his Senate majority, he is left totally unbound and to his own devices.
Dismissive of people with knowledge ("elites"), and surrounded by sycophants, he is essentially alone in this crisis with Iran. Well, their are "his Generals," but as we have been told countless times before... " He knows more than the Generals"... and he is our Decider-In-Chief.
Good luck with that, and God Bless America... we sure do need it!
1
This is literally insane and yet incredibly revealing. Adjacent to this op-ed by Mr. Kristof is Mr. Worth's headline, "The end of Saudi Arabia's Illusion." Upon reading Mr. Worth's piece, I half expected to see in black and white given the headline was the revelation I've been waiting for since 9/11/01, i.e. who did what and how and who knew about it and most importantly, why was OBL successful? The first thing I noticed was the absence of the comment section which signaled to me Mr. Worth or The Times Opinion Editors chose not to be challenged on the merits of Mr. Worth's argument, that the illusion he's referring to is whether or not the American military will fight Saudi Arabia's war against Iran. At least Mr. Kristof is on point regarding all the reasons we should never fight Saudi's war under any conditions however his professed reason is the impending disaster a war with US troops against Iran on behalf of Saudi would cause. Would Mr. Kristoff or anyone else be able to profess merits on the impending disaster without first acknowledging a) Saudi and high ranking American officials somehow made 9/11 possible and b) what's happened in the aftermath was to put the leverage of Saudi in OPEC in America's corner and c) the disaster of everything in Iraq that led to ISIS that is presumably funded by Saudi created a human disaster of epic proportions and d) the middle east is a house of cards built around the oil-theocracy that never was or will be sustainable.
Mr. Kristof:
As always, your insight into this situation is right on target. How sad that we, one of the greatest countries in all the world, if not the greatest, should be facing yet another crisis which could quickly escalate into another war. How foolish it was for this administration to withdraw/abandon the Iran nuclear deal that was already in place under President Obama's administration. And now we must pay, and by "we", I mean our young men and women who may have to fight yet another battle. Beyond sad.
I thought we were Israel's mercenaries. What would happen if we moved our military to the entire/original West Bank and declared it to be a protectorate for the Palestinians? It would defuse alot of issues.
1
@Timit
The evident solution is for the US to invade Texas and perhaps Kansas and California. Imagine how much less expensive than flying our military all over the world, and oh yeah, the enemy speaks English, certainly a boon to the victors.
Wow - isolationism at it's worst!
Since 9/11, 2001, the U.S. has aggressively employed hegemony and military to enlist the aid of every country in the world in the war on terror. Now, if you don't believe there IS a war on terror, or that it requires a united front of all civilized nations to fight and make clear we don't tolerate, then that's fine - that's your opinion.
If, however, you think the world should join us in the fight against terrorism, then to object to our involvement when it occurs against one of our allies, then I would suggest you're either being partisan, disingenuous, or so self involved that you simply can not comprehend what ally means.
If we don't help them, what level of temerity does it take to expect them to help us?
Trump is mostly to blame for supporting the Saudis while they were engaging in this proxy war with Iran. Why would he not expect this disruption of the production of oil not to happen? It was inevitable. It was lame conduct on the part of Trump. He should have made the Saudis get out of a war that they could not afford to fight.
Had Iran attacked Saudi Arabia unprovoked, then the United States would have a reason to intervene with it’s allies, but that is not what happened.
Trump’s handling of the nuclear deal and renewed sanctions also contributed to the attack. He applies destructive sanctions in order to force Iran to give up what he wants, and expects them to fold like one of his small subcontractors in New York, instead of retaliating with worse reactions. What is wrong with this man? He cannot figure out what is coming next and never bothers to prepare for anything that he does not want.
Attacking Iran is a fool’s errand. It would end in a long and infective war. Iran would suffer but it would not surrender without being forced by invasion and occupation. The forces needed to do that are just far greater than we have to commit like that and not become vulnerable every where else. It’s the kind of war that makes great powers into no longer great.
Going to war is easy. Extremely easy. Even wise persons made huge mistakes. You could read history, for example "When The Wise Men Failed" a column written by Jonathan Kirshner here in The Timmes.
Most of the people in Iran don't want his country involved in a new war. They want peace. America should listen to the people of Iran, and the women in Saudi Arabia.
2
And on another topic...
When will the Saudis stop wearing robes and forcing the women to wear black from head to foot?
The robes and the burkas are blatant examples of an ancient, violent, repressive, misogynistic, dangerous regime filled with fundamentalists.
Do they not see how out of line they are with the rest of the world? Their clothing says everything you need to know about the Saudis.
They are untrustworthy and want us to fight their wars with our brave men and women, while their men sit home and smoke or run in fear.
This is the Saudis problem. Let it stay their problem, even if Trump owes them a lot of money.
What? The Crown Prince can’t send his goons to take care of the problem, and Donnie is more interested in making smog great again then sending our troops to die for people who pay well, but hate us? While dangling vast sums of money usually gets Donnie to do anything for you, the Saudis may not be able to pay enough in an election cycle to a president who is all about his image. Our president wants to wage war on California not Iran, because it’ll be fought in a courtroom, a battleground he understands. Maybe they should summon Donnie for another silly ‘sword dance’ to convince him how great they are. Iran May control evil forces in the Middle East, but 15 of the 19 terrorists from 9/11 were Saudi.
Since the Saudis spent all those billions of dollars buying weapons from us this is their chance to get some use out of them. There's no reason for us to intervene on their behalf. Think of us like drug dealers, we just sell you the stuff. If you want to kill yourself that's your business but we're not going to join you.
Not one drop of American blood should be shed for Saudi Arabia. Never trade blood for oil. Blood is a million times more valuable. We shall never be the proxy army for the house of Saud.
1
There was a day this year when Donald Trump had dinner with the murdering dictator of North Korea, while at the same time his daughter and son-in-law Jared Kushner, were having dinner with the murdering dictator prince of Saudi Arabia; Two family dynasties and one would be dynasty at work.
And when one dynasty is spending millions at your hotels and financing your family's business, you wait for them to tell you what to do.
Why are we defending Saudi Arabia? If the Saudi’s believe Iran attacked the Aramco oil facility, let them use their own Army and military to defend their Kingdom.
Saudi Arabia is simply a medieval autocratic kingdom, run by a young “thug and rogue ”prince who is naive, ignorant and stupid. And its leadership doesn’t respect or share our democratic values.
Their view is that if they could buy weapons from America and invest their ill-gotten petrodollar in the US, they can get whatever they request including American troops to defend their medieval Kingdom. Oh by the way, they could also Kidnap, kill and dismember a Washington Post journalist on a broad daylight at their own embassy and get away with it.
The Saudi’s really wants America to engage in a full out war with Iran in their behalf for a while. I’m not sure an all out war with Iran will address their strategic objectives.
America should never again engage in a proxy war in Middle East. Iraq should be a good lesson for all. It’s only a matter of time, all these medieval,autocratic and undemocratic nations will collapse by the their own weight.
2
Yes, it's complicated but shouldn't be...........
The 9/11 terrorists were mostly Saudis - nothing was done....except the only plane allowed to fly was the one taking Saudi "royalty" out of America.......
The assignation of Andre Khashoggi was a Saudi approved and sponsored murder.......the Trump administration looked the other way.....
Gas prices often reflect the Saudis' efforts to drive the prices higher........
AND -
They expect us to defend them against all comers.....
Maybe we Americans are not crazy but this one-sided relationship sure makes one wonder at times ........
1
No, but the Trump "administration" and Enforcer Pompeo appear to be.
The only way to end this march towards war is for the Iranians to book up all the available rooms at Trump hotels.
1
War over mideast oil is the name of our game.
We aren't the Saudis' mercenaries. We're Europe's and Japan's. Saudi Arabia produces 20% of the world's oil. We no longer depend on oil imports, but our allies do. They're relying on the United States. Yes, that's why we have such a huge military establishment while Europe's and Japan's are relatively small. The Saudis don't want war with Iran, because they know that Iran has enough missiles and bombs to destroy a great deal of Saudi Arabia's oil-producing infrastructure.
Talk of “going to war.” But we ARE at war. Comprehensive and crushing sanctions ARE war. Iran’s actions, or those of its allies, are not “provocations” but legitimate and, under the circumstances, surprisingly limited responses to American provocations.
If Saudi Arabia finds Iran is responsible for the attack and damage to their oil refineries, the Kingdom should deal with Iran. Saudi Arabia has done enough destruction in neighboring Yemen, with lives lost and displacing millions from their daily livelihood.
The age old feud between Saudi Arabia and Iran, should not be a subject for emotion or provocation for the US. Saudi Arabia is expecting the US to be involved, and initiate action against Iran. The US should not drag itself into another war, or anymore wars for that matter.
As this Opinion rightly suggests, the US should revive the Iran Nuclear Deal. If it was flaws in the Agreement, that made the US to withdraw from the Deal, then, this is time for the US to call for corrections and improvements to a new Agreement. This will allow sanctions to be lifted, currently placed on Iran, and break the impasse between the US and Iran. With a revised Nuclear Deal, Iran, will still be held accountable, not only on their nuclear activities, but, also on their actions outside their country.
4
Yes. We have sold the Saudis billions in weapons. They (not we) were attacked, let them respond as they see fit. And definitely 'yes' let's revitalize the nuclear deal. It was imperfect as all international agreements are, but far preferable to the mess we have now.
6
Thus far I have not detected a growing fever for war with Iran, as I remembered from the weeks and months leading up to the invasion American of Iraq. At that time, the public was thirsty to avenge 9-11, and were ready to punish Afghanistan, Iraq, anybody at all, whether or not they were actually involved. And thus, invading Iraq did not hurt the Republicans in 2004.
This time is very different. There is no great love for America’s “ally” in the region, Saudi Arabia and there is no political benefit in attacking Iran to defend the Saudis. In fact I think that they know that involving the US in a war with Iran would be politically disastrous in 2020.
1
@Jack Shultz. Reasonable reply. Except you overlook the GOP propaganda machine, Fox "news." Which will jump on this if they think it will win the election. And you overlook the bible thumpers here-- a minority of course, but very empowered by their concentration in the states of the confederacy, their equality in the senate to more modern states, and their EC dominance. These evangelicals relish an end-time war, and they just might get it.
@karen
A Gallup poll in July found only 18%of American adults support military action against Iran. Among Republicans support was 25%. The lead up to the Iraq invasion was over 2 years of beating the war drums and pushing the propaganda, and as I recall, most of the mainstream media in America participated in the push for war, including the New York Times, and especially the Washington Post.
while the specter of war with Iran is 'the worst', of course, I cannot get over a grinning simpleton like Pom sitting next to Mr Boine Saw and smiling .. offering our country's arms and legs to fight their war!
This MBS ordered the torture and dismemberment of another human .. a US resident. It is the single most amazing thing I have ever seen a sitting head of state be directly connected to ...
And Mikey just sits there and smiles ...
11
Yes, this old hippie (lived in San Francisco and Berkeley in the 60's and 70's) sees a US Secty of State pushing for war with 'shock and awe' bombing as a first step.
This Christian believes in the 'end of times' and appears to be pushing for it so he can rapture for the rest of eternity.
I have to say, as I would then, "hey man, why don't you just smoke some grass?"
3
@Harold
I wish I could "recommend" your post 100 times!
1
I was so hoping we might escape any actually serious confrontations until after the conclusion of amateur-term in Washington. The Drumpfsters are woefully unprepared and unstrategic, as the article artfully points-out. They are barely able to think even one move ahead.
This is what can happen when you turn the world over to an arrogant, unthoughtful, untested, second-tier local real estate developer. Woe is us - this will not end well, and the wrong people will once again die, stupidly.
5
I wish we'd use "woman-hating" instead of "misogynistic." It packs a lot more punch, as it were.
8
As far as I know Iran never overthrew our popularly elected leader, imprisoned him for life and installed a Shah who imprisoned, tortured and executed thousands.
Oh wait! Maybe it was Iran that interfered in our elections and gave us Trump.
1
Not one drop of American blood should be spilled defending one of the most repressive regimes on the planet run by a murderer. This kingdom incubated the terrorists who carried out 9/11. These are not our friends
10
We’re Not the Saudis’ Mercenaries! That says it all. Pay heed Trump. Actually, we have nothing to worry about. Our profligate defense budget spender cannot even ball up his fist. He is the guy in a fight who does all the heckling and then runs when he has to put up or shut up.
5
@DENOTE REDMOND, but it won't be trump who decides to throw the first punch. Put that in the bank.
The Saudi's are not our allies. They are nothing more than business associates in the petrochemical business. Going to war for them, especially against Iran, would be the height of stupid.
Trump did not start this crisis. It was started as far back as 1943 with our high handed attitude towards Iran, and culminated in 1953 with our overthrow of their elected prime minister.
5
Honestly Kristof writes this column and never mentions Yemen. That is the problem right here. The Houthis, who basically control Yemen now, most likely sent these drones, They are probably Iranian made. But Saudi Arabia & the U.S. have been bombing for years now. That has created the humanitarian crisis the Mr Kristof has written about in the past. And why is Iran a threat to world security? The only threats I see to world security are The USA, the Israelis & the Saudis. Also China basically already warned us to not act recklessly here. They & the Russians will side with Iran. To Trump's credit he doesn't want a war. He ended that agreement without even understanding what he was doing. Just his usual stupidity. But Pompeo & Netanyahu along with the Saudis want us to start what could become WW3. The worst thing that could happen is to start calling Trump weak. Then he will do it just to show what a man he is. And Lindsey Graham is just a fool.
8
I am confused. Our self-described genius has questioned Article 5 NATO agreements which could involve us in sa
1
How many of the 9/11 hijackers were Iranian? Zero. How many were Saudi? 15 out of 19.
10
Let us also not forget that the Saudis have spent hundreds of millions advancing the ultra conservative Wahhabi Muslim sect around the world where it serves as a breeding ground for anti-Wesrern terrorism
5
You forget to include the international poison of Wahhabism, spread deliberatively to enhance Saudi Arabia’s no-so-benign “soft power”, in your bill of particulars against SA. Never forget 9/11, a day that will live in infamy.
6
@VIETNAM VET
100%. The Saudis are financing these madrasas, building hundreds of them through Asia and Africa every year.
1
From the Halls of Montezuma to the shores of Tripoli
We will fight your country's battles
For an appropriate fee
We have many attractive packages
Including stays at Turnberry
Our reviews on Yelp are always great
We're Trump's for rent military
8
yeah I know when I have a middle east issue , my go to space is Saudi Arabia... They can fix it for everyone. Experts in forensics.
2
Let the Saudi’s and the Persians duke it out. It’s not a fight I care about. Neither should you.
4
Thats right. We are not the Saudi's mercenaries. We are Israel's! How dare we forget that?
4
No, you Americans aren't their mercenaries, but you've always been their collaborators.
2
Not our circus, not our monkey. But to war we will go, if only because this fool has no foresight.
2
But Trump IS a political mercenary.
Has been since he came down that darn escalator.
I just never expected his mercenary tendencies to leak from domestic politics to pimping out a war machine.
2
OUR SONS ARE NOT FOR SALE!
5
Looking at all that gilding in the photo, it's not hard to see why Trump is so enamored of the Saudis. Ooooh, shiny!
3
Let them fight their own war.
And let's not forget it was Saudi Arabians that attacked us on 9/11
2
Well said.
2
Lie down with Butchers, wake up covered in blood. Including your own. Who could have guessed ?
4
Nick....better be careful what you say about MBS.....danger lurks for rash journalists!
1
Our blustering, blundering buffoon of a leader has no ability to think his way out of this. It seems certain that people are doomed to die because of his sheer ineptitude. The likelihood of the US escaping this morass under Trump is nil. The same with North Korea and China. We have to get rid of Trump.
2
The Saudis wanted the US to end the treaty. So this same bunch of billionaires, led by their journalist-murdering prince ABS, can fight their own religious war.
1
Trump is neither a lion nor a rabbit. He is a crying wolf.
4
Sec Pompeo and Sen Tom Cotton are Armageddon Evangelical fanatics who actually believe waging wars of aggression in the Muslim world on behalf of Israel will bring on the Second Coming. This crazed ideology must be defeated.
5
Yes. This is the only way to look at the situation. Trump started it and the rational way to end it is to try and renegotiate the original agreement. Trump will never do it.
2
Nicholas we are looking out for the interest of the US , world stability and western civilization. You might not like it but the world still runs on oil and will do so for the foreseeable future.
1
@wes evans: Uh . . . what do you think will happen to oil production and shipping in the Gulf if full-blown military conflict breaks out?
2
Very well written. Nicholas Kristof is not the only person who has been wondering why the USA seems to take the job of revenging the Saudis oil installation in a mercenary way.
If that is an acceptable thought, why not take the full step, and threaten the Yemeni, and not just the Irani with "great and overwhelming force"? That would buy cred from Trumps Saudi friends. And on second thoughts, why not just do it?
1
I want to know what exactly the US gets out of defending the Saudis. It looks like a very bad deal, from here. They are NOT our friends. They DO NOT share our values. They perpetrate terror all over the globe.
Maybe Big Tech, the Ivy League and Trump are beholden to Saudi money, but the rest of us can see that they are a dead end and not worth the effort.
3
@ksb36
I would like to know who is donating million of $$$ to this Individual1, his last fundraising in California made him 15 millions richer.
We need the names of his fat cats donors.
Is transparency doesn't exist anymore for GOP!
1
@faivel1
Yes, he's already "at war" with California, isn't that enough war for him?
1
RSA will not respond militarily unless it gets support from the US. That has not happened. So, expect sabre rattling, and taunts. The man in the WH is totally responsible for this dangerous moment.
3
Take the money we'd spend on a war and invest it in renewable energy. That act would do more to stabilize the region than any other, and it won't cost precious American lives.
BTW, the idea of turning the U.S. military in mercenary Hessians is repugnant, but repugnancy has not been a barrier to this administration's policies, foreign or domestic, so I don't expect that to matter much.
1
They attacked the Saudi’s because they knew we wouldn’t react with force and the Saudi’s are waiting for us. The royal Prince can’t call his goons to take care of the situation this time.
3
The United States has not been attacked. There is no justification for military action agains tIran. It is insane to send American kids to die so the horrible Saudi royal family can continue living a life of luxury. Let them sort out their own mess, especially since the Saudis do as much as anybody to destabilize the region.
4
It is simply horrible that the United States still support Saudi Arabia, knowing the atrocities they commit toward their own citizen and abroad, these are dark times for American diplomacy.
3
Thank you for the first NYT column in my memory which gives a balanced comparison of the ethics and values of Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Of course, I am still waiting for the NYT column that does the same with the USA and Iran.
1
Best Opinion By far
Thanks Mr Kristof
3
And once again, Saudi Arabia, who killed Khashoggi, who are one of the most repressive countries on earth, who's citizens killed 3,000 American on 9/11 are going to play us. And thank to the greed and the stupidity and the under-the-table payments to the people in power in Washington, we are going to pay.
7
Wag the dog. Trump and the Republicans will drag us in to a third unneeded war in the Middle East (Iraq should have not been invaded and we should have gotten out of Afghanistan once Al Queda was beaten up). Then, next year he will campaign on don't change presidents in the middle of a war.
2
Let them use their money and make their own fight. I don't want my taxes going to fight for them period. Lot better ways to spend it here on our soil.
2
Headline: Raytheon says attack is a act of war. Representatives of GE say it has to be answered with force.
2
No, we are not the Saudis' mercenaries. We are Israel's.
3
The body language of the two in the picture says a great deal. Yes, we are Saudis' lap dog. Pompeo is suppliantly leaning toward to the Crown Prince who is sitting self assured and pretty in his sumptuous chair.
Trump is waiting for Saudis' assessment. If they want us to go war, we will.
5
The primary driver of hatred between Saudi Arabia and Iran has nothing to do with oil, or regional supremacy. The mutual hatred has its origins in the Sunni Shiite schism that dates back to the 7th century.
For America to get in the middle of those ancient grudges would be an act of colossal stupidity. If we had to pick a side, it should be Iran, which has an ancient civilization and much intellectual prowess.
By contrast, the Saudis give “medieval” a bad name. They cut off heads in public squares for trivial offenses. Their leaders’ main pastime is bombing impoverished families in Yemen, for no discernible reason. They jail and Murder dissidents like Khashoggi.
We always knew our President was, to put it kindly, not well. Compared to his Saudi friends, however, he is a prince. Let’s move on from all of them, and their planet baking oil, before it’s too late.
3
We're about to find out if Trump has a conscience.
He doesn't worry about killing people indirectly from long distance. That's been going on in Iran for sometime because of the sanctions. And, of course, at the holding pens/cages at the border.
But, he doesn't like to give the order for soldiers under his command to go and kill. Maybe, back somewhere in his subconscious, he knows that the Iranians don't deserve to be killed... Maybe he secretly admires their guts and their ability to pull off a surgical operation and maintain plausible deniability.
Maybe Trump looks around and says "Zarif is a piece of work. How did I get in bed with those creepy Saudis? Not to mention some of our other "friends" in the region."
1
Trump is unequaled at underestimated the scope and complexity of a problem, and then finding someone to blame when it blows up in his face. Remember when he said "Who knew health care could be so complicated?"? (Answer--everyone but you!) Compared to international diplomacy, ESPECIALLY after you totally destroy an equilibrium for no good reason, solving health care is child's play. (but that doesn't mean you hire a child to solve it.)
For all their foolishness, Wilson, Harding, and Coolidge all understood after WWI that you had to have a balance between Germany and France to keep the peace in Europe. Obama understood this about the Middle East. Trump and the Bush neo-Cons like Bolton never have had a clue about that.
As a man desperate for money, because he spends it water, especially if it's not his own, Trump is ready to sell our sons' and daughters' lives and bodies to help one hideous and horrible regime fight another that's nearly as hideous and horrible. And all to cover up his and Saudi Arabia's incredibly stupid, arrogant, and cruel mistakes. In fact, it may be hard to believe, but as repressive as the Iranian regime is, Saudi Arabia is far, far worse.
But our ignorant, insecure, and not-very-bright President would very much like to have MBS's absolute power, power of life and death over his enemies, and neither sees nor cares about it.
WWI started because arrogant leaders didn't face reality. They didn't read Sun-Tzu or Clausewitz.
3
Unfortunately Trump will never go back to the Iran nuclear deal, it would be admitting he made a terrible mistake and that is something he is incapable of doing. Unlike other ridiculous actions from which he backtracked (like closing the government to get his wall funded) this is one he cannot lie his way out. The Middle East is at the edge of a precipice because the US is led by blustering buffoon with a questionable material filling the void between his ears.
2
Saudi Arabia is a bigger threat to the international stability than Iran. Their ideology and their support for the extremists is the source of most of the Islamic terrorism. It is already embarrassing for the USA to protect such a corrupt and backward regime. It would be a real disillusionment if the American forces act as the Saudi Arabian mercenaries.
3
Great, insightful, on target piece, Mr. Kristof.
2
Despite the title of this OP-Ed, we are the Saudi's mercenaries, or close to it. The Saudi's have one of the biggest defense budgets in the world, and hangars full of the world's most advanced aircraft, but they see no reason to risk scratching these expensive toys when they get the United States t spill blood and treasure on their behalf. While the Saudi armed forces may be up for some recreational bombing of unarmed civilians in Yemen, they clearly have no stomach for combat against an armed foe. Let the stupid Americans tackle that job.
4
Mercenaries? At least mercenaries choose their fights. We are the Saudi's stooges.
3
Are we really going to ask our young people to die for a country that treats women like they are possessions and who produced most of the 9/11 bombers?
3
@Kathleen, I guess this is a rhetorical question. Kathleen, you must now the answer is YES if whomever is running the show decides to go for it.
Imagine the oppressed all around, injustice continues in countries supported by the big powers. A small, weak women voiced so strongly who probably never tested freedom or justice, yet defied and accepted bravely instead languishing in jail. Who called and claimed as free couldn't come out freely. Humanity today cant rescue a single women!
2
It baffles me how completely transparent Trump is with regard to monetizing our military. Maybe if Iran offered more dough than The Saudi’s he’d flip his support. Heck Iran could pay for his beautiful wall!
1
But the Iraq War was a huge success --- for Halliburton.
3
A. Lincoln would have asked to show us the spot where American sovereignity was infringed.
4
We have the president this country deserves.
1
Question 1. : How much stock does Donald have in Arabia oil?
Question 2. : Gonna show us your oil investment portfolio, Big D?
Oops!
1
Interesting! What about israel? Doesn't the U.S. qualify as a mercenary for israel? Ever since its appearance on the world stage we have lost lives of American troops, lost billions of dollars in free American aid and our national dignity for a so called country that resembles a mini national socialist country ? Actually we are not mercenaries because they haven't paid us a dime. What a deal!
2
This is disappointing: I was hoping we would all make it through 2020 in one piece, without a war. Let’s hope that Trump’s instinct for self-preservation (since voters clearly don’t want yet another middle-east war) will trump his desire to show how tough he is to the Iranians. If we’re lucky, we’ll see the usual pattern: Trump blusters and storms around for a while, then quietly drops the issue in favor of the crisis du jour. It’s all so alarming, to see this much stupidity in the halls of government and in the White House particularly.
And fighting for the Saudis, or, more precisely, for the Saudi upper classes: give me a break. Like Trump, they are only out for themselves. What happens to anything or anyone else is not their concern. They don’t deserve a single moment of our attention, let alone a single drop of American blood.
3
How many of the 9/11 terrorist were from Saudi Arabia? Asking for a hero who gave his life that day.
2
Excellent article.
But Nick fails to mention that Congress voted to stop all arms sales to the Saudis. Trump vetoed the bill.
Iran has shown it can cripple the Saudis with a few drones.
A better move would be for the Saudis to stop bombing the people of Yemen back into the Neolithic and for the bellicose Pompeo to initiate steps to stop the war in Yemen.
2
I agree with almost everything Mr. Kristof writes, except for one "minor" detail which he omits. While I am no fan of Mr. Trump, a good part of this mess is traceable to the bad deal that his predecessor Mr. Obama negotiated.
A bad deal is not better than no deal. See Neville Chamberlain in Munich 1938.
Iran does not exist in isolation. It has the full support of two powerful nations: Russia and China.
Our sanctions mean little with those two supporting Iran.
Any military action will bring them into the forays as well.
Trump s between the rock and the hard place, ever since he pulled out of the joint nuclear agreement with Iran.
Kristof could not have said it better.
3
Thank you, Mr. Kristof, for articulating my thoughts exactly. The Saudis loved throwing this weight around on poor innocent victims but not in defense of their own country when truly attracted and they expect us to head their beck and call? No thanks. We're alreadyn18 years into one failed war and not long past another failed war. Defense contractors have made more than enough blood money off of our taxes. Not this time.
3
Trump's feeling of inferiority to Barack Obama has gotten us to this point. The only thing Trump knew about The Nuclear deal was that Obama did it. For a person who everyone knows doesn' read anything Trump was saying it was the worse deal ever made. Did anyone ever ask what was it about the deal that he found so bad? He pulled us out of the TPP not knowing what the deal was and no one questioned him. I say if the Saudis have a beef with Iran let their kids and not our kids resolve it. Have not we lost enough treasure fighting for oil? Let the So-Called royal family get their hands dirty for a change. The Royal Family had no problem getting their hands dirty in dealing with an American correspondent.
172
@Steven McCain
Did the JCPOA change Iran's behavior under Obama? No. Iran wants to dominate the Middle East. Sure, they will relax their nuclear ambition if you will provide them a flood of money and economic growth to support their territorial ambition.
1
Obama can live without Trump. Trump cannot live without Obama.
America is just a collateral damage.
6
@Steven McCain I don't know where you got that opener, but let's look back to Obama's lamentable mistake of calling Mr. Trump out for picking up Hillary's old charge that Obama was born in Kenya.
There Trump is sitting at a dinner and Obama uses that chance to attack him.
ANY American so abused would swear that they'd get some sort of payback there, and Trump got the ultimate payback: getting to follow the hater into his old job and personally erasing everything he ever did to the American taxpayer and citizen.
Were the party labels reversed, you'd insist that it was the coolest turnaround in American history.
You can be sure that when the Republicans get us into a devastating war, it will be in defence of a repressive regime of vast wealth which has no interests at heart but its own.
6
Brilliant column, from the initial quote to the conclusion. I've believed from Day 1 that Trump is dangerous not only due to his ego, but also the fact that he doesn't understand the workings of the world, nor that the history which formed that world influences it yet today.
Americans also need to finally learn the lesson that Saudi Arabia is not our friend. People tend to think of the 9/11 attackers as some generic form of Islam - but nearly each of them were Saudis and came out of one of their religious traditions, Wahhabism, an extremist form of Islam. Saudis are not our friends, they are as transactional as Trump - they just hide it better.
8
The primary difference between Iran and Saudi Arabia to the Trump administration is that the Iranians don't buy condos in Trumps towers or consider financing Trump projects. If you can't use the Office of Presidency to build up your business, what's the point? After all, its only a 4 year or at most an 8 year gig.
4
@Michael
The difference is that Saudi Arabia is not trying to dominate the Middle East. Iran is in Syria. Iran is in Lebanon, Iran is in Iraq. Iran is in Yemen. Iran is supplying weapons and know how to Hamas.
I ask only that any discussion of US-Iranian relations be in the context of our CIA's toppling of Iran's government in 1953...leading to decades of dictatorial rule by the Shah.
Iran has plenty of reason to regard the United States as an aggressive foe.
And as for our defending Saudi Arabia: WHAT?
2
"Cooperate with European countries"? Trump will never do that. He'll cooperate with Russia and North Korea and Saudi Arabia, but never England, France, even Germany. He's not into friends from democratic countries. He prefers dictators.
6
Silver lining: we will have no better encapsulation of our President's foreign policy philosophy than "the Saudis pay cash".
6
Mr. Kristof's argument is way too reasonable to be understood by the ignorance fueled, ideologically driven, saber-rattling "leaders" calling for retaliation against Iran. There is nothing in Saudi Arabia worth one drop of American blood being shed in some misguided defense of the world's oil supplies. Let MBS fight his own fights. He's a big boy. Or, maybe he's a bunny rabbit too.
1
Great piece Mr Kristof , thoughtful , concise & real .
1
We should not go to war to protect a country that treats 50% of its population as subhuman. We should not go to war to protect a country that tortures, murders, and cuts up journalists. We should not go to war to protect a country that imprisons and tortures people who want equal rights. We should not go to war to protect one of the richest countries in the world that has bought billions of dollars in arms. They can afford to fight their own wars.
What does that say about the US if we go to war to protect a wealthy, inhumane, country run by a murderous dictator?
2
Trump is boorish and crude, and he is an embarrassment to us on the world stage, but that may only be, in large part, because he irreverently and clumsily reveals our own hypocrisy and failings. Two example recently that display this is when he said, out loud, at the G7 when meeting the Egyptian president "where's my favorite dictator?" The second example was just recently when he said the Saudis will fund our military intervention with Iran. Shh. Doesn't he know that we are not suppose to acknowledge these facts in polite society? Tut-tut, how boorish of him. We sanctimoniously tout ourselves the promotors of "democracy" yet we support and fund 70% of the worlds dictators. And we ARE the Saudis' mercenaries. Recall when John Kerry inadvertently said while testifying before Congress, when asked how we would pay for a war in Syria, said that the Saudis "said they will foot the whole operation, as they have done previously." The operative word here is "previously." We are the Saudis strong men. Have you ever seen a Saudi take the point on our behalf? Once again, let's be honest here. This is not new or an aberration of Trump. It is only more visible with Trump and that is why it has garnered so much more attention. We have been doing this for decades but it has been well cloaked by our two political parties and intelligence community. Trump is like that drunk uncle at a family reunion that airs all the family's dirty laundry. He reveals the ugly truth about us.
2
Every person who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 bears a share of the burden for what Trump will get us into. This war will be on their hands, too.
Every. Single. One.
1
@Glen Stop dragging out that sorry cliche for an argument. Nominate a candidate who can win the electoral college in 2020, not somebody who deserves “her turn.”
Pompeo is very eager to claim a “ War “ notch on his belt. HE is positioning himself for 2024, and HE WILL be the presumed nominee after Trump loses 2020.
Guaranteed.
1
@Phyliss Dalmatian
Not Ivanka. ?
This is a plea.
Please stop using the the sanitized speech of the criminals who run the show.
Please don't say:
"throw our young people into harms way".
Please say instead:
"send our children to be slaughtered and maimed."
4
Trump's feeling of inferiority to Barack Obama has gotten us to this point. The only thing Trump knew about The Nuclear deal was that Obama did it. For a person who everyone knows doesn' read anything Trump was saying it was the worse deal ever made. Did anyone ever ask what was it about the deal that he found so bad? He pulled us out of the TPP not knowing what the deal was and no one questioned him. I say if the Saudis have a beef with Iran let their kids and not our kids resolve it. Have not we lost enough treasure fighting for oil? Let the So-Called royal family get their hands dirty for a change. The Royal Family had no problem getting their hands dirty in dealing with an American correspondent.
1
Why are we supporting this murderous regime who killed and mutilated a distinguished journalist and sent us the 9/11 hijackers and mass murderers? Wasn't Kushner sent there to solve this problem? After all, dad-in-law Trump has "full confidence" in him. Of course, no one else does.The US is oil independent now. We don't need the Saudi's. Follow the money.
1
I'm just waiting for him to blame Obama.
Thank you for your piece; I have been making this point since the oil refinery was struck, and Iran was blamed.
The Saudi's were the ones attacked. They spent more last year on weapons and military than anyone but the US and China did.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures#/media/File:Military_Expenditures_2018_SIPRI.png
So it's not like they don't have anything but bone saws to use against their attackers. Let them handle their own wars, we have enough of our own - also ultimately based on our increasingly damaging addiction to oil.
1
"This is a struggle between two misogynistic, repressive regimes...." I count three.
2
"Thuggish potentate" is the understatement of the year.
Try murderous Kingdom that financed the 9-11 attack.
Also, my guess is that, at least until Trump, about half of Iran looked up to the U.S.
Saudis look down on us, see us as their servants...like the Indians they use for labor to clean their houses. Before the Republican party sold out to Russia, it sold its soul to Saudi Arabia in order to get oil. That was the power and money behind the Bush dynasty.
Yes, you are. For instance, without US "contractors" not a single Saudi jet would be airworthy, because most Saudis consider it beneath themselves to become aircraft mechanics - and the few who do are utterly incompetent. Hence, the job is done by Americans.
The ugly truth is that Saudi Arabia is a pre-modern despotism, which supports an uneducated workforce through government handouts. There aren't enough Saudis to operate the complex weapons system the US are selling them - except for glamorous toys like fighter jets, which are flown by lesser princes. Without American nationals, the war in Yemen would have to be broken off in less than 24h.
1
"And Trump’s suggestion that we will be well paid for defending Saudi Arabia is an insult to our troops, casting them as mercenaries working for a thuggish potentate."
The fact that trump sees nothing wrong with this odious offer is proof of his vile motives. The man is incapable of good character.
1
yet the world has to stand up to bullies, rogue nations and terrorist states
no easy path. but deterrence is totally necessary.
1
I find it very odd we don't really know who launched the Saudi Oil field attack.
What are our spies in the sky actually looking at?
Who could have done it...
USA, Israel, Turkey and even the Saud's themselves. Many others also...
Trust no one in power these days.
We also seem to have lost track of where money is going...
War is money
1
Americans are going to die defending the birthplace and exporter of radical Wahhabism, Osama bin Laden, and 15 of the 19 September 11 terrorists?
Did the statute of limitations run out on the triggering event that led to wars in Iraq and Afghanistan? Do we forget?
Perhaps if Trump's word meant anything or if he hasn't pushed all our allies away or if his breaking the treaty didn't strengthen the hand of Iranian hardliners there would be hope for a diplomatic solution.
Trump is going to look weak, because he IS weak. Incompetent because he IS incompetent.
I don't care how many of Trump's condos the Saudis buy or how much money their investment vehicles put into Kushner's projects. Not a single American should die defending the Saudis or Trump's ego.
Not a single one.
2
The Saudis are tyrants, and always have been.
The US needs to STOP supporting tyrants.
This was an attack on the Saudis, not the US. Let the Saudis fight their own conflicts.. which honestly.. they have been stiring up for years now.
And let's not forget.. it was largely Saudi nationals that drove the planes on 9/11. They may have been radicalized, but it is also true that the Saudi royals routinely fund radicalized groups and factions in the middle east. Their hands are dirty.. very dirty.
1
If the Iranians want to attack the Saudis then we should sell weapons to Iran. At a discount. There are few, if any, more despicable regimes than Saudi Arabia.
1
Great article.
I have lived in Saudi Arabia and I can say with all honesty that the Saudis are cowards.
They are afraid of their own shadows but most of all they are afraid that other Saudis will turn against them, criticize them and make them look like fools.
In our project the Saudis always allowed us the foreigners to make the decisions and take the necessary actions while they sat on the sidelines ready to criticize and pontificate in case something went wrong.
And by the way, they are not only cowards but also lazy.
1
--Starting a war with Iran because of an attack on some Saudi oil refineries..would probably cost Trump his Presidency. The ugly can or worms that would open from a Gulf war...would be blamed on Trump. And if any Americans died, it would be all over for him.
... The Saudi regime are thugs, and even Trump's most loyal supporters would find it difficult to justify spending American lives.. just to allow the Saudi's to continue business as usual.
--So Trump is in a pickle; he values his own political survival more than anything..and clearly the Iranians know this.
.... Dropping out of the Iranian nuclear deal is fast becoming one of Trump's worst decisions... It's difficult to see where he goes from here.
1
Please stop mincing words. Saudi Arabia has launched an unprovoked and illegal war against Yemenis and had committed multiple war crimes. They are using US weapons and they are being shielded by Trump and his incompetent minions. I worked argue that turnabout is fair play for the Saudis.
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This situation illustrates perfectly why Trump should have never been elected. He has created an international crisis by pulling us out of the 2015 agreement with Iran. Obviously, he vastly misunderstood who and what he was dealing with. Trump presumed that the US' military might would intimidate Iran, but because Trump has demonstrated several times that he has no heart for making good on his threats, he has shown that he's feckless and has no solutions. The incredible stupidity of pulling out of the agreement will be the legacy of this chaotic presidency, especially if he blabs us into fighting Iran as a proxy for Saudi Arabia. It's not our war and we owe the Saudis nothing.
3
--Starting a war with Iran because of an attack on some Saudi oil refineries..would probably cost Trump his Presidency. The ugly can or worms that would open from a Gulf war...would be blamed on Trump. And if any Americans died, it would be all over for him.
... The Saudi regime are thugs, and even Trump's most loyal supporters would find it difficult to justify spending American lives.. just to allow the Saudi's to continue business as usual.
--So Trump is in a pickle; he values his own political survival more than anything..and clearly the Iranians know this.
.... Dropping out of the Iranian nuclear deal is fast becoming one of Trump's worst decisions... It's difficult to see where he goes from here.
1
“But this is not our fight. Nor should it be our graveyard.” I doubt you have written anything more accurate or profound. And I trust you are remembering the 58,000 killed in my Vietnam, the 4,400 killed in Iraq, and the thousands more killed since then, all in wars that made little if any sense.
The arrogance of so many of our leaders sending America into wars is stunning. People like Kennedy, Lodge, Johnson, Bush, Cheney—there are dozens more. I don’t blame the Kennedys and Johnsons as much as I do the Cheneys and Bushes, because the latter should have known better—in fact they did know better, they just let their egos run the show.
Perhaps the only thing worse than having those people sending our kids to die is having the simpleton who is now running the show. And “simpleton” may be the best thing one can say about Trump. I’m pretty sure he would not understand a word of your op-ed, nor any part this comment.
3
What might Putin do in response to an attack on Iran, his neighboring friend?
1
I believe the last time some Americans fought and died to defend a monarch was in the eighteenth century.
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“...If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to respond militarily to the airstrikes on its oil facilities, he can go ahead with the kingdom’s own fighter jets and missiles. But this is not our fight. Nor should it be our graveyard...”
So true, and have Lindsey Graham, John Bolton, and the other chicken hawks enlist in the Saudi military, so they can serve bravely on behalf of MBS.
Nicholas, Thank you, once again, for your insightful analysis.
Could this be the coming out party for a joint IDF-Saudi raid on Iranian assets? An Iron Dome purchase along with miscellaneous cyber, military hardware? The enemy of my enemy is my friend approach is a time honored tradition.
A Saudi pipeline hookup to Israel another sign of a fast burgeoning relationship.
The Saudi, Egyptian, Israeli, Qatari mutual defense pact is a pact whose time has come. The other Gulf States would quickly fall into place along with Jordan.
A mass exodus of Rump State Palestinians, Gazans to Jordan funded by Saudi Arabia? This solves the most intractable elements of the Kushner one and a quarter, not your fathers two state solution.
Yes, stranger things have happened in the world.
Viet Nam saw poor kids fighting for some ill-thought-out war to stop communism. After 50000 lives were lost and many more lives destroyed by drug addictions brought back by our troops we now buy blue jeans made in Viet Nam.As it was then it is now that Armchair warriors are willing to send our youth to war with no knowledge of what to do after the shooting starts. Super Hawk Lindsay Graham was an Air Force lawyer a position where I suspect the only fighting he did was with his mouth. Funny all of the politicians who want us to have a muscular response to Iran never used their muscle to protect our country.
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The United States of America broke a negotiated sign treaty (JCPOA) that has put our great country in the predicament we currently find ourselves in. Doesn’t matter if it was against one of our most archenemies, Iran. Going forward thanks to President Donald J. Trump, our solemn word amongst the other nations of the world including our trusted allies, means absolutely nothing now. So much for MAGA (Make America Great Again). Get rid of “The Donald” before he triggers World War III with his ignorance and incompetence!
"We’re Not the Saudis’ Mercenaries"
Clearly Mr. Trump and Mr. Pompeo do not share that sentiment!
The Iranian-supplied Houthis are this generation's Gulf of Tonkin. We were supposedly looking for a reason to go to war against North Vietnam when - lo and behold! - they came after US with small armed vessels.
The world in general and the U.S. in particular will enjoy having this attack in the desert as the excuse to begin trimming back the mullah's junta in Tehran by trimming back their military availability - as Pres. Obama SHOULD have done after they held American sailros hostage, instead of paying that ransom.
Thank you Mr. Kristin for clearly articulating your opinion. I agree 100% with you!
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I think you are mistaken. Saudia Arabia and Israel determine our middle-eastern foreign policy.
"If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to respond militarily to the airstrikes on its oil facilities, he can go ahead with the kingdom’s own fighter jets and missiles."
No, he can't. He'll have to use American ones. America is their top supplier, and they are our best customer.
On March 26th of this year, USA Today published a list of US arms customers, and the Saudis top that list. (Saudi arms imports from US, 2008-2018: $13.72 billion, 59.6 percent of their arms imports.)
I said a year ago that Trump would have a "limited war" with Iran just before the election and then "win" so he can declare "victory" for the USA and ride to another election on a white horse of "saving America." Sadly, I thin this idea was planted in his almost brain but others early on. He is just too dumb to know he was/is being played. No one is thinking of the pain, the cost, the destruction, and the death that will ensue from a war, as "well, it's just a small cost to pay" for another 4 years. It was also known that Cheney wanted to go to war before W Bush was elected, so he could "take down" Saddam. 9/11 was a convenient excuse and we may never know if the intelligence warnings were ignored on purpose on not.
Saudi Arabia is a terrible place and the Crown Prince is a murderer.....the kind of guy Trump admires (Putin, Kim Jon Un). I shudder.
I am amazed that there is so little outcry from others, Nick, to see this stop before it goes further, but as soon as we withdrew from the previously constructed agreement, it was just a matter of time.
Men like Pompeo, who salivate at the prospect of creating war, would faint on the front lines and cry if their children were sent to fight. None of them have ever heard of Sun Tzu or Clausewitz.
There might be small shred of decency left in the orange man. Maybe he will discover a "miracle" with his giant brain at the last minute that averts tragedy, but don't hold your breath.
I agree that the US military should not be the Saudis proxy military. But hasn’t the US military been the proxy army for Israel with Bibi pressuring Congress through the use of AIPAC?
I don't remember the old Uncle Remus fables so well but I do recall Sly Fox begging Briar Rabbit to Please, Please don't throw me in that Briar Patch. All four of Sly Fox's paws are stuck in the Tar Baby...
Apparently our leader never read or remembered these childhood fables either.
Though it may be misogynistic to require a woman to wear a hijab (very debatable), Iranian society is anything but misogynist: women represent 60 percent of university students, women of course can drive cars, women hold jobs in public work and women hold the highest respect in their own households. None of this is true in Saudi Arabia. Though there is oppression of dissidents in Iran, would this happen if the Iranians were not in constant fear of overthrow of their government by tools of the CIA like the. MEK or in fear of nuclear physicists being murdered by Mossad as has happened on at least five occasions. The question we have to continually ask until we get a legitimate answer is this: just why does the US align itself with Saudi and Israel against Iran?
I wonder is the 'promise' he made is promise only the 'chosen' can make.
Who did he promised and what???
Enquiring minds want to know.
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Iran also has a very good air defense system. You think Iran is a pushover? Think again. We are defending Saudi Arabia, home of the 9/11 hijackers, because they have bribed Donald Trump.
Why not be mercenaries? We've sacrificed too many American lives for free... Ask the Saudi's to rebuild Detroit in exchange for our protection..
They are the mercenaries for the USA !
That is why they were put there by the USA .
well said, accurately explained. Thank you
So, rather than a peace plan for Israelis and Palestinians. This administration is stumbling into a petro-conflagration. Bravo.
Unfortunately the Colum didn’t reflect Iran’s disruptive acts all over the Middle East; Iran placed their militia in Yemen who overthrew the elected government causing the war, protected Assad in Syria, took over Iraq, Lebanon and Ghazah and placed their military gears few miles from Israel.
Saudi and the US don’t want to inter into another war in the region a surgical operation against Iran maybe imperative.
The fact that he even talks with the abominable Prince is bad enough. Nevermind supplying arms to him! If there is a war, it is on his back--not his hawk advisors!
Saudi Arabia is disgusting corporation who imports their labor and is run by a family despot while Iran is, frankly, a real nation with real and stable institutions. Not only that, but Iran founded themselves by declaring their independence from the Anglo-American oil oligarchs.
The Iranian people are much more like Americans than either might admit. Obama had the right idea. But, the truth is, we need a real alliance with Iran, not just a detente. A real alliance is very much in American interests, particularly in light of our rivalries with Russia and China.
Trump and Kushner’s favorite in Saudi, MBS, has recklessly escalated the war in Yemen with indiscriminate bombings of civilians including wedding parties and funerals, and using American made military equipment to prolong the battle. Now MBS feels threatened by the attack on the Saudi refineries, so he turns to the US to be his mercenaries and our ignorant president agrees conditioning his support solely on Saudi paying enough to the US to rent out its military. This is an abomination. Trump seems willing to sacrifice US troops to fight a war that the Saudis have perpetrated but apparently don’t want to use their own troops to fight the Houthis or the Iranians.
MBS with Trump’s help, has created this conflict, but the US should do nothing To support any Saudi military effort. Trump owes Putin for helping him get elected, but he owes nothing to MBS who has only caused conflict and death in Yemen, brutally murdered a US based journalist, and sexually tortured a Saudi human rights leader. After these heinous acts MBS turns to the US to help him militarily and Pompeo seems ready to comply by calling the bombing of the Saudi refineries an act of war.
Now here is the scary thought: a war lead by the incompetent Trump and his sidekick MBS with no plan, no strategy and just a use of US military to back up Trump’s bombast. If Trump thinks this will get him re-elected, he may find instead that it will lead to his well deserved demise.
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I'm not aware of any "act of war" by Iran against the United States. While Pompeo is massaging the corrupt Saudi crown prince, perhaps the dictator can treat him to a public beheading of some unfortunate heretic or adulterer.
This is an matter where Democrats must show more resistance than they did under Bush II when key figures caved and got our country into the Iraq quagmire.
The media should not engage in war drum beating. They have a vital role and should do their job in explaining that an attack on a corrupt country drunk with oil is not the same as Pearl Harbor.
SA is third globally in military spending. Iran is not even in the top 15. SA has more than enough military resources to blast Iran. The fact that SA would even suggest that it is our job is absurd. The only thing more absurd is that we might be dumb enough to do it.
We've seen this war before, and before and before. All that has changed is the name of the country we're fighting. What's stayed the same is us. Same old, same old with no end in sight. Except this time we seem to be going it alone because we think we can.
How foolish. How dangerous. How irresponsible.
Vote.
How many Democrats are calling for another war in the Middle East? It's always the Redumplican't LAW GIVERS who want to send our young people to their deaths or dismemberment far from our own shores. It's always them that cry we must spend more on "defense" on the other side of our planet. The very title, "Department of Defense", is a lie, a bad joke. It should be called our Department of Threats, Intimidation, Murder and Imperialism. Our "foreign policy" for decades has been to offer bribes to foreign leaders to get our way. When that fails, we threaten "shock and awe", or "destruction like the world has never seen". Our Congress has not declared war since WWII, and we haven't won a war since then either. Will they ever learn...WAR IS NOT THE ANSWER !!!
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What this dumpster fire of an administration needs is a war. I mean why spend the nation’s fortune, money you could spend on Medicare for all, infrastructure, education, the poor... on the military if you don’t use it?
In response to your headline, yes we are the Saudi’s mercenaries and have been since at least the Bush Sr. administration. Obama was the only serious break with that tradition.
Interesting thoughts. For now however, if Trump decides to send troops to defend the Saudis from Iran, we shall be called 'mercenaries'. And that would be a royal disgrace. What happened to U.S. diplomacy, did it perform 'hara-kiri'?
Come, Come now.! Everybody just relax.. Remember, Jared Kushner is in charge of Middle East peace. -Sleep easy tonight.
In the middle of all this, who is doing anything about the genocide in Yemen?
The UNHRC was to name individuals and it had already named Saudis, UAE, UK and US.
Is there no legal basis for iran to arm the Yemenis to defend themselves against the Saudis? After all,our country is clearly enabling that genocide, if not an active participant party to it!
If war with Iran is so important to the Israelis and Saudis, they are welcome to go for it. Keep the US out of it.
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The closer I look at those satellite photographs, the clearer the image of Mr Putin's fingerprints seem to come into focus.
Wait. The President says when we hit Iran, the Saudi's will reimburse us. Trump has a price for everything. How much to torture and dismember journalists?
1
when I read, this is a struggle between two misogynistic repressive regimes, well for a moment I thought you meant ours...
Iran is a cautionary lesson of what happens when you let the Evangelicals run your country. But, that said, if Pompeo thinks an 'Act of War' has been committed, he should look in a mirror. Our economic sanctions have killed thousands of sick Iranians, through lack of access to proper medicines. Quite a few of them were children. In response, the Iranians bombed a Saudi oil facility. One of these is an act of sabotage. The other is a crime against humanity. I'm not surprised which of these two Donald Trump is the author of.
Wow! This photo is nearly identical to the one of Pompeo sitting with the prince following the gruesome bone-sawing death of the Washington Post journalist. Grins and smirks on their faces, when death and destruction is on the menu. You can always count on Republicans to opt for money and power over justice and honor.
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And to top it all in the new bombshell revealed...
https://www.vox.com/2019/9/18/20872701/dni-whistleblower-schiff-intelligence
A whistleblower has filed a complaint about a Trump phone call with a foreign leader
House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff says he wasn’t properly informed, and he wants answers.
First reported by WAPO.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/
Trump’s communications with foreign leader are part of whistleblower complaint that spurred standoff between spy chief and Congress, former officials say.
Hmmm...seems like another huge cover up to me.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/all/intelligence-chief-won-t-turn-over-whistleblower-complaint-house-committee-n1055691
Intelligence chief won't turn over whistleblower complaint to House committee
The acting director of national intelligence Joseph Maguire is withholding a secret whistleblower complaint from the House intelligence committee because it involves conduct by someone outside the spy agencies and doesn’t meet the legal requirement for disclosure to Congress, according to letters obtained by NBC News.
Unbelievable, what they can get away with, when GOP is in constant mode of flagrant dereliction of duty.
1
In your second to last paragraph you wrote, "This is a struggle between two misogynistic, repressive regimes that are both destabilizing the region." The really frightening thing about that sentence is that if you change "two" to "three," it could just as easily capture the Trump administration's general attitude -- beginning but not ending with the war against women at home and the canceling of the Iran nuclear deal abroad.
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Thank you for stating the critical point that the US is not a mercenary army for the Prince to direct. Robert Gates's quote shouldn't be forgotten either. Moreover, the US is less dependent on Saudi oil than ever. Let's all pretend that Trump was against the Iraqi war and encourage his comparable restraint here. He faulted Bolton for his belligerence on Iraq, albeit after making his national security adviser. That is the path to Trumps making the right call now.
2
Thank you Mr. Kristof for your insightful article. I am afraid the war between the US and Iran will happen, simply for all key actors on both sides see that in their interest.
In the US, the democrats have concluded that if Mr. Trump starts a ME war, he will lose those independent and democrat voters who did vote for him in 2016. They are predicting that a bloody war with Iran, with body bugs coming in daily, will lead to Mr. Trump's most humiliating defeat at the polls.
The Republicans are also itching for the war. Many of their key constituents are pressuring them to urge Trump to start bombing Iranian oil fields (Please see: www.haaretz.com/jewish/sheldon-adelson-wants-to-nuke-iran-1.5279025). The Republicans can't afford to ignore these demands, as they depend on large corporations and individuals for financing their 2020 elections.
The Saudis want the war, because it serves their interests in many ways. First, by destroying Iranian oil facilities, they can pick up the Iranian market share. Second, in the fog of war, many embarrassing questions - e.g. why their "mighty" military has failed to defeat the ragtag Houthi army, or why billion dollars US anti-missile systems did not protect them - will disappear.
The Iranians want the war for they see their economy weakening daily and more dissent are rumored in the ranks. So, they correctly argue, if war is inevitable, they better get it started now, while they still have their powerful military and social cohesion.
2
Mr. Kristof, EXCELLENT piece, great analysis. Trump's repudiation of the Iran Nuclear deal was a highly illustrative moment in US history. A president was petty enough in his hatred of his predecessor he was willing to put world peace at risk to un-do the work.
Trump's inept, bumbling, incoherent, incompetent response to a crisis is to outsource the decisions to the Saudis. And to claim we make money if we fight.
These are impeachable offenses. To take the concept of going to war in Iran so lightly, and in complete disregard of competent analysis by our national intelligence and military leaders, counsel from Congress, or any coordination of our allies is criminal negligence.
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This situation is no more an American problem than a Chinese, French, Saudi or anyone else's problem. Unless, of course, if we decide to make it our problem. Let others deal with it (they all use oil). Turning a cold, uninterested, indifferent shoulder to the incident would really bother the Iranians. They want engagement and for us to feel pressure. We should not fall into their trap. Our response should be a non-response.
4
But Trump can’t let it go by. Remember, he always has to hit back—and harder. Even if the first punch wasn’t aimed at his nose, he is standing up for his buddy MBS.
Do we want war? No.
If the Saudis and the Israelis have a problem with Iran, let them sort it out on their own.
I do not think the US should get involved.
And any US involvement in Iran should be a long term strategic effort to assist. moderate Iranians in their efforts to get rid of the Shia theocracy. And we should have as little to do with the Saudis as possible until they stop supporting Sunni extremism.
1
Take a moment and think of how the U.S. and other nations would treat the Saudis if they treated black people the way they treat women. That's the real humanitarian crises. I don't think we would be going to war with them. I'm also surprised that no one has mentioned, especially Democrats, that the Green New Deal, is actually a national security policy and would eliminate our need for endless oil wars in the Middle East through the use of electric cars. We are removing our troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, and the defense contractors need a new war to keep the profits rolling in. I can't believe Pompeo and Trump are even bringing this up.
2
>>> "Take a moment and think of how the U.S. and other nations would treat the Saudis if they treated black people the way they treat women. That's the real humanitarian crises."
You think that's a more serious humanitarian crisis than the massacres the Saudis are committing in Yemen?
I think you need to reexamine your priorities, Maryann.
The fact that Iran and its proxies now have accurate cruise missiles that can target its enemies in the Mideast should make any American very concerned. Due to the destruction of the diplomacy of Kerry and Obama, Iran will lash out in ways the US cannot handle without a very dangerous war that could go global with Russia and China dragged in. Whether NATO and the UN have any say in this impending conflict is doubtful due to the total ineptness of Trump's remaining diplomats. The Trump doctrine is to use the chaos he creates to strengthen his executive powers. Our Constitution will be trampled if he uses his war powers to fight the chaos he created with Iran. Stay tuned.
1
This is such a naive piece.
I have lived in Iran for many years and know this regime quite from the inside. The military-religious dictatorship has already sensed weakness on your president's part, because of his reelection campaign. These are ruthless religious fanatics (Khameniei and his surrounding mafia which Rouhani and Zarif are just facades for) with a mindset similar to that of ISIS or the Taliban. They have stepped up their aggressive behavior exactly because the recent sanctions have hurt their purse badly.
Going back to the old nuclear deal will be further seen as a clear sign from their God that His promise of support against the more powerful enemy has finally come true and they will think they can chase the US off this region for good. There is no other way or language that they would understand except overwhelming force. You guys should have dealt with the problem of mullahs of Iran decades ago, once and for good. Containment obviously did not and does not work and you problem will only get worse.
A superpower does not mean anything if it runs from every wars. You have fought many wrong wars, but you should have the sense and courage to fight the right war.
2
@Imaan
I agree with you. The problem with the analysis is it views the Iran only with regard to their acquisition of nuclear weapons and not with regard to their desire to dominate the Middle East. If the US goes to war against Iran, the US needs to do it in a dramatic fashion. This requires a better provocation from Iran. So I agree with the overall Trump move not to use military force at this juncture. Let the Iranians up the ante and they will soon cross the line where everyone in the world will demand action.
1
This is dangerous, warmongering nonsense and the poster's claim of special knowledge, even if true, doesn't make it a bit less dangerous and wrongheaded.
@Douglas I am not buying any claim of special knowledge" from "Imaan" ?
Iran is a rogue regime. Yemeni Houthis terrorists who attacked Saudi Oil installations are part of a network of groups aligned with and financed by Iran for many years. These groups include Hezbollah, Hamas, the Afghan Fatemiyoun, and the Pakistani Zeinabiyounal, Liwa al-Hamad, and the Iraqi Badr Organization - amongst others. They have been Iran’s proxies and are responsible for plane hijackings, bombing of embassies and transport infrastructure, homicide bombings and the slaying thousands of innocents in Europe Asia, South America and the Middle East. It is Polyanna-ish in the extreme to think - as did President Obama, that Iran will change and act as a responsible nation any time soon. President Trump, for all his failings, seems to be a realist about Iran’s agenda.
5
@George: OK, now list the terrorist proxies of the Saudis. Then, start with the proxies created/enabled/armed by the US. And go on from there.
>>> " It is Polyanna-ish in the extreme to think - as did President Obama, that Iran will change and act as a responsible nation any time soon."
One way to make certain Iran doesn't act responsibly is for the US and its allies to act responsibly, or even to honor their agreements.
See how this works?
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@George
The tension between the US and Iran is about who will dominate the Middle East. Obama's negotiation for the JCPOA was based on the fact that if Iran was given normal market access, they would improve their behavior and concentrate on their domestic economy. Iran failed to get that message and there was no deviation with regard to their support for their proxies after the JCPOA. Make no mistake, Iran's next target is Israel. War is coming. The US support for the JCPOA would only have insured that Iran would be flush with cash and weapons when the war arrived. Trump is right.
4
@George if you think dropping bombs on a nation will do anything but bring on more extremism, hate and frustration, you have not been paying attention. Fact: the United States of America took down Iran's democratically elected president, Mossaddegh, in 1953, on behalf of a British oil company, now called BP, and installed a dictator-king who destroyed their hard-won democracy with a brutal fist. That is where all this Iran mess started originally - with America's deeply irresponsible, violent meddling. How quickly we Americans forget their culpability in the world's disasters. How quickly we forget the harm we have done others. Look it up.
14
Why would Iran want to provoke a war that it could not win? Israel and Saudi Arabia are the only states that stand to benefit from unleashing their war elephant, namely the United States, against Iran at this juncture. Clearly, the design is to attack Iran before it acquires an effective nuclear capability. If Israel wants to wage war, let it for once do it by itself.
2
Ignoring Iran now leads to nuclear war. It's not hard to see the world will end in fire.
Why don't we invade Saudi Arabia...they're defenseless without our weapons (we did build in back door "off switches" on our electornic warfare gizmos, didn't we) and their mercenaries, we'd have the oil, if Iran attacked us (there), we'd have reason to retaliate (as we seem to want to do), and we'd have a real regional political interest to share with Israel.
We protect the Saudis because they have the oil we need. What does that tell us?
Mr. Kristof is correct: We're Not the Saudis' Mercenaries". Mercenaries get paid. Thanks to Trump, we'll end up doing the Saudis' dirty deeds for free. And this guy sold himself as a great deal maker? For someone who is supposedly all about what's in it for America, he's really terrible at this, never mind the utter absence of any moral backbone.
5
History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce. - Karl Marx
I’m sure our troops will be home by Christmas after a proper demonstration of “shock and awe”.
We are truly living in an age of farce.
3
Well, I hope Tom Cotton is happy. As you recall, he wrote to the Iranians when Barack Obama's envoy John Kerry ( who knows more about war than any of these Republican hawks)
wrapped-up the Iranian nuclear deal. At that time, Tom Cotton collected some Republican signatures and warned (i.e. threatened) the Iranians that when a Republican became President, this deal would not be honored. Now it isn't. And we face war with Iran because of these poseurs? No American should have to die for the House of Saud, as Mr. Kristof rightly says.
5
This article fails to mention that we have no basis for attacking Iran. Even if the Iranians were responsible for attacking Saudi Arabia, we have no formal treaty with the Saudis compelling us to defend them. If they want to defend themselves, that's their call to make. We sell them enough weaponry for them to do so without our help.
Committing an act of war against Iran requires congressional approval. There is no congressional authorization for the use of preemptive military force against Iran. When they shot down our drone, we could have responded as it was an attack against the US. But an attack against oil refineries in Saudi Arabia? How does that qualify as an attack against the US? It obviously doesn't and Trump has no authority to wage war on his whim.
I'm tired of these ridiculously wasteful Middle East wars. The region was horribly dysfunctional long before I was born and it's going to be that way long after I die. If a war breaks out between Saudi and Iran, I guess we side with the Saudis, but that's a marginal case at best. The Saudis are the worst allies we have (though Pakistan contends for that title regularly). They break international law with impunity and face no repercussions. If the Saudis and Iranians go to war and oil goes to $250 per barrel, maybe we'll finally get off oil.
What of the people, you say? There populations could get reduced by half and the world wouldn't notice. Let them have their fight. We don't need to fight it for them.
2
The Saudis brought this on themselves, by formenting the war in Yemen. They now seem determined to bring nuclear arms to the Middle East - what could go wrong?
4
Makes sense to me. I wonder how Brett Stephens, who opposed the Iran nuclear deal so strongly, will respond to this line of argument by Kristoff. Maybe we’ll find out.
1
"Trump’s suggestion that we will be well paid for defending Saudi Arabia"
How much for a dead American, is it more or less for one wounded - disabled?
Do the American soldiers get paid by the hour or do they need to present heads or ears for payment?
How much did the Colombians mercenaries got paid for their slaughter of Yemanies, will they pay more for Americans?
Do we still need to thank them for their service?
3
Finally, an article that connects our exodus from the nuclear agreement with Iran (as well as the unwarrented oil sanctions that apparently have crippled their economy) with the attack on Saudi's oil infrastructre. Could the obsession that Obama has to be shown to be a feckless president lead to cruise missiles badly damaging, or sinking, an aircraft carrier? And what happens then?
2
The column makes sense except for the one statement, "nobody wants a war" that follows comments about the "hawks," who, by definition, want war. Israel wants war! We went to war with Iraq because Israel wanted us to. Wolfowitz and Perle, representing AIPAC, pressured Bush Lite into it to retaliate for 9/11. We knew 15 of the 19 terrorists of 9/11 were Saudi Arabians, so what did the US do but invade Iraq for the second time using Saudi air bases to launch bombing attacks. Until we stop carrying Israel's water for them, our Middle East actions will be muddled. Terrorism typically does not arise in a vacuum; I'm afraid
our bizarre policies and actions in the Middls East through the decades have laid the ground work for future terrorist acts that just well might frightenly make 9/11 look like a Sunday School picnic.
2
Of course we're not the Saudis' mercenaries. We do their bidding for free. They've sent "letters of interest" and they haven't paid us one dime.
2
Let's also bear in mind that Saudi Arabia was the home of Osama bin Laden and of most of the jihadists who attacked us on 9/11. And that our good friends in the House of Saud continue to subsidize madrassahs that send young men out to murder Americans and our allies with the promise of martyrdom (complete with seventy virgins). The Iranians, despotic as their leaders are, have done nothing of the kind. Mr. Kristof is, however, incorrect about one small detail: there are three, not two, misogynistic, repressive regimes that are destabilizing the Middle East. The other one is our own, and it's high time we left.
2
Why not. ?
Let Saudi Arabia give us 51%of Saudi Aramco and we will protect them for a period of 30 years.
1
Trump has made a mess of American foreign policy particularly in the Middle East. He reflects the poorly thought out policies of Right Wing hawks who sabotaged the Iranian Nuclear Agreement but offered nothing remotely better. Of course Trump impulsively followed their advice and created this self induced mess and Trumpian chaos. All his options are terrible and he has no diplomatic skill and allies. A disaster is impending.
3
We arm SA with almost every high tech weapon we have. If they want a fight, let them do it with all of those American arms. The majority of workers in SA are imports. They have enough crown princes to field an army. Let it be so!
2
"We are in this mess because Trump abandoned the landmark 2015 Iranian nuclear deal."
And before that Iran was a paragon of international good behavior?
Iran has been involved in terror, funded terror, sent lackeys to engage in terror long before the nuclear deal was abandoned. Status quo.
The only difference is that you, Mr. Kristof and others turned a blind-eye to this and were willing to give Iran a pass.
You just hate Saudi Arabia more.
1
Iran was most probably involved in everything you say they were involved in. However, Trump’s own people said they stuck to the deal that was made so , yes, we can trace these attacks to decisions that were made.
Now the president speaks about more sanctions. Are there any left?
What now? Is there a plan? Is Jared in charge of this one also?
I gather from this article that you think bombing Iran is not a good idea (to say the least). So then why would you publicly say that Iran is calling him a bunny not a lion? There's nothing like insulting his ego to spur him on to do the unthinkable.
What is shocking is that with all billions spent on hi tech weapon systems to defend installations from attacks EXACTLY LIKE THIS the US military and the Saudis could not detect and shoot down a couple of drones and missiles. Ah the MIC at work with our tax dollars. If the US military was an employee at a Walmart they would be fired for incompetence but were stuck.
This will serve to take what little heat there was off of Al Queda in Yemen, who as we already know were paid (by UAE/SA) to move from Yemeni villages - which was then dressed up a military successes. Furthermore UA and UAE have supplied AQ and other US labeled terrorists with arms and recruited them in battle. [August 2018 AP Investigation: US allies, al-Qaida battle rebels in Yemen].
Does anybody still remember how Osama bin Laden started off receiving US funds to fight the Russians in Afghanistan? What monstrosity are we cooking up now?
Who have we become? Saudi Arabia is a repressive regime led by a murderer. Their list of human rights violations and crimes is as long as my arm. Why in the world would we want to put American lives at risk fighting for a despot?
2
We Americans should not forget that it was Saudis who planned, financed, and executed the murder of hundreds of U.S. citizens on 9-11.
With friends like these, who needs enemies?
I expect to see Jared Kushner, dear friend of his Middle East financial benefactor bin Salman, heroically offer to form an “American-Saudi Brigade” that would fight, to the death if necessary, on the front lines of any conflict with archenemy Iran. Kushner would be expected to be joined in his courageous, gallant efforts by Donald Jr. and Eric Trump, also the great beneficiaries of the generous Saudi state. Perhaps wife and sister Ivanka could even selflessly offer her services as a combat nurse in the bloody hostilities. What a family!
3
Mr Nicholas Kristof, thanks for a well balanced article. The lunatic, imbecile and hypocrite president Trump should consider a man like your character for national security adviser. You were absolutely fair in your article to name the bad actors Iran and Saudi Arabia; it just happens that one is less evil than the other. Most of the times Americans go to the polls to grudgingly choose as president the lessor of two evil candidates. I am a christian Armenian, naturalized American citizen from Lebanon; sadly I grudgingly had to vote for Trump--because he promised to get America out of the Middle East quagmire. I endured long years of the Lebanese civil war; I can safely tell everyone that Iran is definitely the lessor of the two evils. People in Iran vote, women drive cars and girls can ride bicycles, just to name few differences between Iran and Saudi Arabia. But the list of the differences in Iran's favor is long.
Trump's implication that our military could be mercenaries for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the right amount of money is as distressing as it is disgusting.
If so, I think that Uday & Qusay Trump and Jared Kushner ought to be the first to be hired . . .
1
We shouldn’t be taking marching orders from Saudi Arabia,Individual One is a moral disgrace an his decision like his word is questionable.Hopefully the USA catches up with the world and realizes lack of Character matters.
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"This is a struggle between two misogynistic, repressive regimes that are both destabilizing the region."
Nicholas Kristof couldn't put it better. He uses the word "mercernary" which is exactly what I thought when hearing that once again, the Saudis are expecting miracles from the US.
This is the country that produced the 9/11 attackers. This is the country that makes demands and gives nothing in return, unless you're Donald Trump who wants to sell pricey condos. This is a country whose king allowed his bloodthirsty son to orchestrate a coup with none other than the president's son-in-law, then go on a rampage around the world after murding a dissident.
The US-Saudi "relationship" is one-sided and selfish, continuing because our leader is greedy.
We are heading towards catastrophe, sparked by one man's insane hatred towards his predecessor and inability to admit he has erred greatly.
I see no way out, given the players we're dealing with.
3
Anyone who thinks that Trump and his Republicans will do anything other than pull the trigger on behalf of their Saudi benefactors is naive.
Matter of time.
The truth is that America's place in the world has changed. THe old way of bulldozing through and getting others in line is no longer going to work. We need more dialogue and less of the war drums. Decades ago, many countries in Africa and Asia relied on US aid. Today many have partially weaned themselves of US money. Hence, they have teeth. They can bite. They would not be pushed around. It is time to ditch the buga buga foreign policy and turn to dialogue.
Your column should be mandatory reading for Congress and the Administration. It appears that those who would need to read it most lack the attention span that would extend beyond the first paragraph.
Another case of the same Trump tactics
For lack of a better plan.
..sow chaos and disruption
back out deals and refuse control or regulations..
be they environmental ..or political
It`s so much easier to do this
and to let right wing factions within your ranks battle it
out for whomever gets to shape
the corrupt policies of the future ...
Than to actually come up with ...a coherent plan
We certainly are not their mercenaries. SA is antithetical to America in so many ways, but they are SO MUCH SMARTER THAN TRUMP that it is disgusting to see Trump fawn before them as he does with every dictator.
I believe that Trump owes HUGE sums of money to SA - they have bought him and his allegiance, just as Putin has. Trump has allegiance only to money and I think we will find that he has been disastrously co-opted by several foreign powers. THAT is TREASON.
Trump has it in for Iran because thy won't kowtow to him so, with the help of Miller and Pompeo (and a smattering of Mnuchin) The DOTARD is setting up Israel, under Netanyahu, to show Iran that he's "the boss" - not US, HIM. Now that Bibi is basically out, that probably won't happen so Trump is trying to fake the "reasonable nice guy" while he plans a military strike using Pompeo as a shill with his third hand under the table.
This is what Trump calls "The Deep State". It's not fiction, it's TRUMP & Co. When he said "the election was rigged" he wasn't lying. He planned to use that as an excuse to contest it when he lost. Surprise, WE lost, but Trump's treason went on anyway and now his Republican Capos cover for him.
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"We're not the Saudis Mercenaries." I heartily agree. And may I add: We're not the Israelis' mercenaries either! Both countries have been hounding us to do their dirty work against what they see as an Iranian threat. If they (both) want a war, let them fight it, not us.
What about bone saws? Those seem to work well, and both the Saudis and the US more or less approve of them.
How have any of Trump’s foreign policies helped to make America great again?
The Iraq invasion was a bad move that the US need not have made. But look at what we have today. A fairly democratic Iraq. had Saddam been allowed to stay in power another million Kurds and Shias would have been killed by Saddam.
Some day after the US removes the Ayatollahs of Iran and Iran regains its pre- Islamic glory we will all be celebrating.
mercenaries get paid. If we attack Iran, the US tax payer is footing the bill.
Actually we ARE the Saudis' Mercenaries if there is payola in it for "The Chosen One" AKA "Michigan Man Of The Year" and his pals. Don't over think this, because what ever move Moscow Donald makes it will be AGAINST Americas best interest.
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If some sort of military action is instigated by the coward in chief it will be around September 2020, in order to insure his re election. If anything happens now the folly of it would be obvious long before the election. But if he waits a year we will get caught up in the 24/ 7 media coverage, the thrill and passion, while the folly is not apparent. Yet.
Nothing is off the table for Trump if it will get him re elected because re election is ALL he cares about. Why? The federal, state, local charges awaiting him when he is a private citizen will make his life torture, and rightly so.
Sound crazy, harsh, too simple? I don't think so; remember: nothing matters to this sad excuse for a human being except what helps him. Nothing.
Between now and then we will hear constant blabber; one day yes, next day no, just like that girl who drove you crazy when you were 16.
Americans turned a blind eye on the Saudis who were spirited out of our country while ground zero was still burning and no American could fly. We did not pay attention to who was among those Saudis, Bin Laden families. The FBI and the CIA never had the opportunity to question these Saudis. No one got to ask the Bin Laden’s where Osama was or how to reach him. The, 15 of 19 terrorists were found to be Saudis.
The civil war in Yemen has Saudi and Iranian proxies on the ground. The Houthis have Hezbollah and the “government” has Al Qaeda. Who are we arming? Al Qaeda. The Houthis do not have an air force or surveillance planes and satellites, but America has armed the Saudis, sold them an air force and provided airborne surveillance and satellites which advantage Al Qaeda on the ground. Now Saudis want American servicemen to risk their lives to preserve Saudi oil and wealth and hegemony in return for money.
How crazy, right? How about this: name an Iranian terrorist event in America or Europe? Yet Saudis have allies in America and Israel that have portrayed Iran as the source of terror in the world, blinding Americans to the facts that Al Qaeda and ISIS are Sunni Wahhabi fanatics from Saudi Arabia. Why are we allied with the source of global terror?
If Trump and Pompeo join the Saudi war Americans who disagree will be portrayed as traitors by Trump.
I would support being in a limited back-up role ONLY if the Saudi's simultaneously agree to getting out of Yemen
Kristof: “Nobody wants a war...”. I would feel much better if I had any confidence in that statement. It certainly is not a fact. Rather, at best, a hope.
Trump isn't going to come crawling back to sign up for the Iran deal he pulled out of. He can't rely on allies to help him find a solution -- because he's antagonized our allies. Watch him at the UN: It'll be all bluster, like his attack on North Korea, which turned into a "love" affair with its dictator. Maybe he'll pound his shoe on the UN's table. No serious person -- or country -- takes him seriously at this point.
84
The medieval regime in Saudi Arabia hates America and the West almost as much as the medieval regime in Iran. It was Saudi, not Iranian, terrorists, backed by a Saudi, not Iranian, millionaire, who attacked us in 2001.
Saudi Arabia is not a member of NATO. This attack was an act of war, but it's not our war.
"We're Not the Saudi's Mercenaries"
But we are. We are mercenaries in the Middle East and Central Asia for the Saudis and for Israel. We have been for a long time, now.
We should not be, of course, and we should definitely cease to be.
As usual a wonderful perspective from Mr. Kristof. Is anybody listening in the administration?
"Our task instead should be to cooperate with European countries to get out of this muck and find a way back into the Iranian nuclear agreement."
Too bad Trump thinks the US can go it alone, and regards cooperation with our erstwhile European allies as a one-way street that only victimizes poor, mistreated America. He's hopelessly wrong, of course, but he is incapable of admitting that possibility.
Another aspect of this fiasco is that Trump perceives the largely successful Iran deal as an Obama accomplishment, and thus something to be done away with at all costs, never mind its merits. Trump brings to mind the Pharaoh Thutmose III, who systematically removed or defaced all imagery of his predecessor (and stepmother) Hatshepsut.
Mr Kristof, We are not playing Saudi Mercenary. We are a bunch of misinformed lot protecting the lost lawless family in the recent history. Without us "the Royals" would find it hard to get refugee status anywhere.
Mr. Kristoff, I think you could argue that in Gulf War 1 we WERE the Saudis Mercenaries.
What a thorough analysis.
Turns out Iran is not a cause of any of these problems.
If I am am wrong some helpful commenter can quote the sentences where our intrepid columnist finds Iran a cause of the
But no. Iran was innocently minding its own business and then Trump.
We are the Saudis' mercenaries. We have been since at least George H.W. Bush.
But why?
I think direct payments to individuals is the most likely answer.
1
Like pretty much everything else Trump touches, he broke this. I think the analysis is correct... the only reasonable way out of this is for both sides to tweak the agreement so Trump can claim his hollow victory. Unfortunately, I would expect Iran to want their pound of flesh after Trump has damaged their economy so much with his sanctions - so the odds of them coming together seem remote to me. And that's of course if the Iranians can even trust Trump enough to enter into another agreement with us.
Liberals have been warning about how we have been skating by with a completely unfit man at the helm for over two years... and it's fallen on completely deaf ears in the GOP. Therefore, whatever befalls us is completely on them.
I read it. I enjoyed it. Beautifully written. But US interests in Saudi Arabia is missing. Can US really say no to Saudi Arabia? Why US Saudi and Israel are on the same page in the conflicts prevailing in middle east?
Most importantly, don't you think that Trump's and his chicken-hawks' rhetoric are appealing to the domestic audience?
And what about the arms trade? Conflicts are lucrative business for USA. No?
The reality show star has finally met a reality that he can't star in. Yes, he's caught in a conundrum of his own making. Blustering the Iranians has and will continue to show his inner bunny. Trying to buy his way out will prove that point. Following the advice of Pompeo and Graham and the other warhawks in what's left of the Republican old guard will further antagonize Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Think those strikes against the Saudi refineries were damaging? The Straits of Hormuz will be locked up in a straitjacket before they're through. There're simply too many metro-targets in the region. And down goes the global and US economies should the situation further deteriorate.
Trump further calls to Putin will be in vain. Russia wins when they become the world's largest oil exporter.
Trump is in so far over his head with no seasoned diplomats in the studio to re-write the script, he will continue to flail and tweet about in vain for a solution.
Poor Donnie. No Nobel Prize for you!
Just because the missile and drone parts were made in Iran, doesn't mean the Iranians shot them. Israel had access to them in Syria and Saudis Arabia in Yemen.
Possible that Israel and Saudis Arabia and Israel colluded to stop Trump from sliding back into negotiations with Iran while Netanyahu could bolster his campaign last week. Even better if Trump retaliated against Iran.
Theory supported by how little damage was done to the Saudi Oil facilities.
We are no more Saudi's mercenaries that we were France's or Belgium's or Britain's in their wars. We of course have nothing in common culturally with Saudi any more than with Turkey or India or Taiwan. We have a strategic interest.
If Saudi oil or Hormuz transit is imperiled, out economic partners are imperiled, so the issue is larger than Saudi.
Kristof is a deeply emotional and ideological man. He is an example of why a sunset policy for op-ed writers might be a good idea.
Isn't it all about money to Trump? If Trump can turn this into a money making scheme, he probably will. "Want us to flex some muscle in this situation? What are you willing to offer ME (& my family) in return?"
I'm not well versed on this part of the world, but I have one big nagging thought. Why would we fight for a foreign nation when it's own armed forces don't fight?
I'm 99% sure Donnie, months ago, said he liked the Saudis.... they buy his stuff. I assumed it was US weapons, planes etc.. Was it his condos and wine instead?
An excellent column. Of course, the answer is to re-establish the Iran Deal. As for Saudi Arabia, they have to figure out their own political future. Right now they are still stuck in the past, led by an apparently murderous leader.
This administration needs to watch Lawrence of Arabia, and stop trying to bring the book of Revelations to life. We're getting zero-summed to the brink. This is deadly serious business, entirely brought on by an uncontrolled toddler. Is there still a US Congress? Dear God, all this chaos in a mere 36 months. And we still have over a year to get through.
I don't wonder what the effects of years of sanctions have had on Iran's calculations. Especially to what extent Iran has internal political problems that it is choosing to offset by bluster and intrigue, establishing to those inside and out that they are still a potent international player. That is the danger of protracted punishment. They have moves on the board.
My point is that the danger of sanctions is that we create a wounded beast. But one that is calculating and not rash. Regimes tend to hold on any way they can to insure their survival. So they seek to go as far as possible while skirting catastrophe. So North Korea tests missles and Iran takes ships and now is probably using drones, a policy we have taught them inadvertantly.
The danger with Trump is that he is not an internationlist. He is a 5 and dime tinpot. He has cut out expertise by cutting personnel at State. His narcissism puts himself out as the only solution. He sees our institutions as parts of his company that he can direct, ignoring sobering checks and balances. For him, exposing American lives for payment is a wise business deal, but it shows he sees our citizenry as not an entity he needs to represent and attend to, but as an entity that owes him fealty, with lives being expendable. But it remains our fault in a democracy. We permit it. Like Viet Nam, it is time to publicly protest if this accellerates and to undermine what we the people want no more of.
The Saudi system can't be reformed, it's a slave plantation, family owned, where a majority of the population is foreign workers. Plus, it's the main source of Islamic terrorism; the principle source of funds for Islamic fundamentalist movements. We don't need to reform it, it needs to be abolished. We do that by not buying their oil and not selling them arms. The Trump administration's alliance with Saudi Arabia against Iran is a historically large foreign policy blunder. And worse, it seems to be motivated by Trump's personal greed rather than by any perceived national interest.
1
No article about the present crisis would be complete, honest,w/o mentioning the growing gap between the people of Iran, "un peuple gentil,"and the leadership. and were the citizens of Tehran to wake up next morning to find Mullahs hanging from lamp posts, I do not think they would be unhappy.Imagine if the billions spent on defense, on terrorism, Hezbollah, Rev. Guards were to be diverted to serving the people's domestic needs, how great that would be. Admittedly, ABH is relying on only 1 source,friend of mine from the Sorbonne early 1960's who married an Iranian, lived through the final days of the Shah,Khomenei revolution which followed, taught English at the university, was accepted "tout a fait"by her neighbors, colleagues, and whom I visited recently@ her home in Fla. and who spoke to me of the gulf between the people, who wanted freedom,secularism, and the hard liners exemplified by Zarif and his cohort who seek a confrontation at any cost in order to distract the citizenry. Suggest author go to Tehran and do his own man in the street survey. Trump is a Buchanan style isolationist, and foreign wars, Wilsonian notion of making the world safe for democracy is for him a non starter. When u cry wolf too often, Mr. Kristof, people will cease to take u seriously, and having known personally the author of "Don't Cry Wolf"Geoffrey Bocca, I know whereof I speak.
Nicholas: Regardless of why we are in "this mess" In the Middle East failing to retaliate is considered a sign of weakness which itself could quickly escalate into more Iranian attacks. But Iran's leaders are not suicidal. If the US launches a proportionate military response to the attack on Saudi Arabia it is extremely unlikely that Iran would strike back and risk destruction by the US (Israel would probably get in a few of its own licks as well). This handwringing by those who are afraid of taking any military action whatsoever is not helpful. For once, I hope Trump follows through on something he says he is going to do and launches an appropriate military response.
1
It was Saudia Arabia that was attacked but apparently Mr Kristof thinks that we ignore their wishes and act entirely on our own.
1
You are spot on Mr Kristof! Trump brags, and exaggerates, about how much the Saudis spend buying our military equipment. Why is it that this rich kingdom can’t strike back at Iran by themselves if they choose? We have no mutual defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, so I’m not sure why the US has anything at all to say about this, let alone claim it was an “act of war.” It was not an act of war or even an attack on the US or our military. The last thing we should be considering is using American lives and dollars to retaliate on Iran for an attack on a repressive kingdom with vast resources, both troops and materiel.
Let Saudi Arabia fight its own wars and don’t commit a single dollar or life to help. After all, look how much they buy from us and “pay cash.”
"Robert Gates, the former defense secretary, once scoffed that Saudi Arabia “wants to fight the Iranians to the last American.”" No doubt Israel thinks exactly the same way as they've incited us to confront Iran for years.
Why would we use up our weapons and risk American blood first on a fight between Iran and Saudi Arabia? The Saudis have plenty of modern American made weapons to use up and Saudi blood to spill first. Israel can provide back up if they need it. America should sit back and simply keep selling them more weapons earning trump his commission.
Military genius, Lindsey Graham, is calling for us to bomb oil refineries in Iran as retribution, creating yet another man made environmental catastrophe. Instead the Saudis should inflict equivalent and punishing damage that won't add to the global contamination like that being emitted into the atmosphere from the damaged Saudi facilities.
"They plan out their chess games ... without appreciating the basic lesson of Sun Tzu or Clausewitz that the other side also gets to move." Maybe they do appreciate it, but are arrogantly thinking the other side will roll over and die, yet are offended when the dog they're kicking bites back, thinking "how dare they!"Indeed, the arrogance is such that trump can't be victorious or save face without totally destroying and humiliating his adversary.
At this point, the mutually assured destruction of these two countries, even three countries, is appealing. At least it will all be mutual
Yup, but his hotels are not losing money anymore.
In no way should the United States take an retalitory action against Iran for the drone strikes against the Saudi oil refineries. The U.S. has backed the rogue Saudi regime for decades for one reason - oil. Now the U.S. is self suffcient in producing crude oil, perhaps the U.S. should stop backing The House of Saud and let the Saudis stand on their own. The Saudi military has purchased billions of dollars of military hardware from the U.S. over the years. If they chose to do so, let Saudi pilots bomb Iran without any support from the U.S. If they go to war with Iran, let Saudi soldiers fight the battles. NOT ONE AMERICAN SHOULD DIE IN A WAR BETWEEN SAUDI ARABIA AND IRAN.
"Saudi Arabia has the gall to call for an international inquiry into the attack on its oil installations, even as it blocks any international investigation into the murder of my friend Jamal Khashoggi."
Yes, indeed, thank you for this. This Washington Post journalist was murdered, dismembered, and his remains disappeared from a consulate. Trump and advisor Kushner basically don't make a peep, advising MBS 'no more embarrassments,' and speak of the 'primacy' of Saudi money. Infamy.
Why is the attack on Saudi Arabian oil supplies America's problem to solve? If this is an "act of war", it is surely not an act of war against the U.S.
Even if we are somehow moved to believe the Trump administration when it inevitably concludes that Iran is responsible, there is no obvious justification for a U.S. response, particularly of the military kind.
Saudi Arabia is a rich country with a military that can defend itself. If American strategic interests are demonstrably at risk then it might be appropriate to discuss U.S. participation in some kind of response. However, no such evidence exists.
This is just another example of U.S. foreign policy being driven by a combination of Trump's business interests and fragile ego. The playbook for manipulating Trump is understood by all parties on all sides of this conflict. As usual, America will be the loser.
The first sentence of the article, quoting Robert Gates, does imply that American troops already fought for the Saudis as mercenaries.
Nicholas is correct that this ominous turn of events is of Trump's own making. The root is without a doubt his leaving the Iran Nuclear Deal. That was the ONLY resource we and our allies had to rein in this rogue nation. The primary reason, of course, was President Obama. DT's plan before his "election" was to destroy the Obama legacy from health care to protection of the environment to international diplomacy. But let us not forget that although Trump is indeed egomaniacal, it is that very egotism which renders him vulnerable and weak. We have seen our adversaries, Putin, Kim, and MBS, feign admiration to gain power over this corrupted individual. And they have done just that with alarming success. ( Netanyahu also had a say in our exiting the Iran Deal, but that is another story.) Where we go from here is anyone's guess. To hitch our wagon to among the most ruthless of Mid East nations, Saudi Arabia, is ominous. Then there is Pompeo who is just itching for another war. Yes, our way out is to find our way back into the nuclear agreement. But that is not going to happen...ever...while Trump is at the helm. Think 2020.
2
This is much ado about local powers in the Middle East vying for power. Despite some members of Congress being presently in the thrall of Israel, we really don't have a dog in that fight. It's fine with America if a new Ottoman or Persian Empire takes over. At least there would be peace and perhaps even a measure of (gasp) justice.
Thank you for your opinion Mr. Kristof and you are totally on the money about this. There is probably one country in the world with a worse record on human , women's and LGBT rights than Iran and that is Saudi Arabia. They were attacked , not us ,and our citizens are not obligated to shed blood to defend them. A pox on both their houses and they both deserve a war with each other. Keep us out of it America !
1
The bigger problem is how could the world trust the US again.
We cant hammer out a deal only to have it broken by the next president.
I believe Trump ruined it for the next couple of presidents.
Iran just showed us that they can cripple the Mid East oil supply to the rest of the world. They may have many hundreds of drones and cruise misses ready to launch. And trump will find that no nation will come to his assistance in an un winnable war on Iran. So no one on any side really wants a war, especially Saudi Arabia (except maybe Russia because it’s all up side for them).
Trump is in pretty much the same position as he is with North Korea, impotent and ineffectual.
Also, never forget that the 911 terrorists were mostly Saudi citizens
"That’s the problem with hawks. They plan out their chess games and triumphantly plot a checkmate without appreciating the basic lesson of Sun Tzu or Clausewitz that the other side also gets to move."
The above problem is really one of having privileged white males exclusively part of the decision process. These men have never suffered hardship, never been on the short end of the stick, never been around brown skinned people to understand that they are the same (or higher) level of intelligence,
and have never lost the game their parents and lineage set up for them to win.
But, war with (China, Iran, Russia, France, Britain, Mexico, Canada) which seems like where we are headed now?
We will lose. There are not enough American poor people without options to die for stupid wars anymore in the volunteer army.
And, with the instantiation of a draft, most young men will move to Canada.
Who wants to be part of the next Ken Burns movie on failed American wars sponsored by privileged white males who Dodge the draft themselves.
Not my son.
1
Let the Saudi’s defend their turf. They need to expend some munitions anyway, so we can sell them next gen stuff ahead of schedule.
Thats the cynic in me. The real politic part says forcing them to take action in the region might well set them on a less independent course, and force them into greater alignment with our bloc. And force them to work with us on better handling radicalism (terror funding) within their own borders.
First of all reading you piece I am encouraged that somewhere sanity may prevail. That said, I look at the population statistics in the Middle East. Iran, 81 Million, Saudi Arabia, 33, Turkey, 80 and Russia sharing a significant border with Iran as well as Turkey, 146 Million and let's not forget Israel only 8-9 Million. Why oh why would anyone want War in that region. Read the piece about Pompeo in the New Yorker a few weeks ago, he is just about as failed a business man as Trump is. The con man leading the con man into yet another bankruptcy, just asking.
I totally agree. Let Saudi Arabia bomb Iran back if they wish, they have a large military. It's there fight and we don't have to fight it for them.
Yes, Nick Kristof, we're not Saudi's or Israel's keepers or attack dogs. And yes, we're slipping into a war with Iran, as we slipped into war with The Axis last century. Mr. Trump can't wrest victory from the ashes of his foreign policy. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has claimed that Iran attacked Saudi Arabia, "an act of war". Iran denies the accusation.
The world isn't headed toward an American face-saving victory in the Middle East (or in the Far East). No matter Donald Trump's hail-fellow-well-met faux relationships with dictators ,the truth will out and international security looks doomed. Are we headed to the cataclysm of World War again?
President Trump has bragged that the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has spent $billions on American military technology ("the greatest in the world!"). Let Saudi's malign Crown Prince fight back himself against Iran instead of begging his great friend, Donald Trump to protect Saudi Arabia by loosing the dogs of war on Iran and the world.
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Because sanctions are the only thing that seems to excite the feeble mind of the president, may I suggest Canada, our European allies and any other country willing to be part of the remedy instead of just staring from the window, start putting "maximum pressure" in applying the "highest in history" sanctions to whatever comes from the USA? And then it would be the major US corporation going after the absurd, inconsiderate talk going around these days.
If bombing oil refineries in Saudi Arabia is a "serious provocation" (never mind, for whom), what do we call coercive (and doubtless illegal) U.S. economic sanctions designed to bring about the collapse of Iran, not to mention years of U.S. support of Saudi mass-murder in Yemen, to the point where the country faces starvation?
We Americans truly take the cake.
Occurs to me that the extreme way to respond here would be to immediately adopt a Green New Deal vastly more aggressive than any which has been previously proposed.
"Well, these two misogynist, repressive regimes are having a power struggle. That's too bad for them, but as of 2025 our domestic industry and defense groups will rely 0% on fossil fuels, and we don't really care what happens over there. Good luck to them, and please feel free to call us if the UN decides anyone needs any help."
If America goes to war with Iran as Saudi Arabia's mercenary, it will show two things:
(1) politicians in Washington can be bought and sold by those with the cash to do so, regardless of the impact on America's national interests; and,
(2) the incumbent president and his Republican supporters are 100% illegitimate and do not deserve to be in power.
If Republicans were truly patriotic Americans, they would join with Democrats regardless of ideology and impeach Trump. But of course they won't.
There is no dilemma at all if we put the oil facilities damage in perspective by comparing what our made in USA bombs, rockets, and planes have done in the hands of Saudis to create the worst humanitarian disaster on the entire globe.
We are guilty.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
Two Points:
Yes - we ARE their mercenaries (when convenient for them) and their arms supplier.
If Trump is not wholly owned by them, it's only because Putin has a lien on him as well.
One more Point:
The smart thing to do would be to take the trillions we'd spend on another oil war and instead throw it all into the Green New Deal. Make jobs here at home instead of more veterans with PTSD. Get off fossil fuels entirely and leave them to stew in their own oil.
But that would be smart; we have Trump.
1
Trump has no dilemma at all, unless he's trying to make a deal with the Saudis for a Trump hotel, golf course or condominium tower or get Saudi financing for development somewhere else. All he has to do is create some more news to distract and we'll all forget about it.
Whether by design or accident, and probably a combination, MBS and Bibi have treed Trump. He says he wants no more endless wars, yet these two have manuvered him into the mother of them all, aided by Pompeo, the ghost of Bolton and the other warmongers in his coterie. We can only hope that his better instincts prevail lest he set mch of the world on fire such as we haven't seen since WW2.
Sounds like something Archduke Ferdinand should weigh in on.
It’s 1914 all over again.
Another reason to quickly wean ourselves away from oil. Then nations of the Middle East will have no influence on the rest of the world and they can implode with no consequences to the civilized world.
I guess filing for bankruptcy won’t work against Iran the way it does when dealing with banks.
I think trump is morally bankrupt and that works against everybody.
My fear is that he is eager to use a nuclear weapon and nobody will stop him.
I do not want to waste my tax dollar, even a dime in fighting for Saudi or any other country. I want may tax dollar be used for America and Americans. We have enough problem inside our country. We can rebuild our country. Most important, I do not want anybody loose their life for this unnecessary war.
1
I have not read much lately about how 15 of the 19 hijackers on 9/11 were from Saudi Arabia, with Bin Laden's Letter to America stating the presence of American troops in the country as a primary motive. Support from (low level) government officials has never been officially ruled out. Is this irrelevant now, or have we simply forgotten about this?
So completely logical. Will anyone listen who is in power?
NO
Mr. Kristof needs to face the truth
Israel, for a decade, has worked to get the US into a war with Iran, to take Iran's nuclear capabilities
Mr. Trump, eager to get the Pro-Israel vote, has done Israel
bidding, from moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, from drawing up a peace plan for Palestine to endorsing Natanyahu's announced annexation of the West Bank
Hopefully, Mr. Trump stops at doing Israel's bidding when it comes to bombing Iran
But given that there will be US elections in 2020, I tremble
1
Trump likes to brag about the billions of dollars the Saudis spend buying military equipment from the United States.They have formidable arms-do they not have a force trained to use them? Our sleek weapons do not come with Americans trained to use them against Saudi enemies-let them defend themselves in the dangerous place which is the Middle East.
1
Trump knows that if he starts a war with Iran he will certainly lose in 2020. He was elected partly because of his non-interventionist attitude, which his supporters actively back. They trust Ron Paul more than the soft-handed Lindsey Graham. Unfortunately though Trump meets daily with the swamp that he put in his administration who would love nothing more than war.
Interesting that Trump is relying on the Saudis to tell him who did the attack and how he should proceed - like he is their poodle. Trump has radar and other vast US technology that certainly knows what happened - yet they probably know that in fact Iran did not do it. They would rather use the Saudis that lied about chopping up alive a journalist and are committing genocide in Yemen with our weapons and air support to provide the lie they need. The Yemen Houthis are capable of the attack on the Saudis in response to the them starting the genocide on their country. The don’t want to admit that drones that cost thousands of dollars can defeat mega billion miliatry systems.
Why is the attack by attacker X that killed no one seen as an act of war while the Saudi flying of American made planes carrying American made bombs or rockets used to kill countless Yemeni civilians seen as just an American business venture?
One answer may be that there is no nation as powerful as the USA that can declare to the unholy USA-Saudi Arabia alliance "We are locked and loaded" and we can annihilate you."
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
The man currently occupying the White House is a classic mercenary!
I pray for our military, and the world he's not able to engage in WWIII. Allow the Saudis to solve their own problems. Those who borrow funds ,or sell apartments to these characters shouldn't be elected to any public office. These are dangerous conflicts of interest!
Who knew foreign policy could be this complicated?
1
Umm, Mr. Kristof, I do think that we *are* the Saudis' mercenaries. I examine the pool photograph here and see a satisfied SecState Michael Pompeo and a cat-that-swallowed-the-canary Mohammad bin Salman. No need to wonder what they're talking about: how to put American taxpayers' money to use for the benefit of the Royal House of Saud.
I've said from 2017 on that Donald Trump had no understanding of world affairs and foreign policy and its fluid dynamics. He wanted desperately to efface President Obama's achievements. What he has done is to deface America' standing in the world. He has a particularly unhealthy fixation with Iran. He allowed himself to be led by the hawkish "advisers" on his staff because they knew how ignorant and malleable he is.
Saudi Arabia is no friend of ours but they would be more than pleased to step aside and allow American soldiers and shed blood for them. What of the Yemenis? What is their crime? The Saudis, even more than the Israelis, play us like chumps and have since time out of mind when Republican presidents, going back to Ike, made deals with them to cement access to their oil wells. All this, mind, while Republicans are always extolling the virtues of capitalism while looking the other way when other countries mistreat their citizens.
The Saudis are the keepers of a cruel, dehumanizing form of worship that has bled out many neighboring countries. It now seems intent on bleeding out ours.
The American president awaits their pleasure.
If we're going to fight the Saud's wars and allow them to kill innocent people without holding them accountable, why don't we just go all the way and annex them and make them American taxpayers? At least then we'd get a share of their oil wealth and the taxes they would pay.
But as it stands, they're getting a free ride, and have been. Who were the ones really responsible for 9-11? The Saudis. And yet nothing was ever done about it because they hold sway over our supposed leaders. Our leaders care more for the Saud's than they do Americans!
As an alternative to annexation and statehood, maybe it would be easier if we just sent all our leaders there, starting with Trump.
You are absolutely correct! There can be no justification for starting another war in the Persian Gulf. Nor will the American people approve. As you have so plainly put it, if MbS wants a war let him fight it with his forces and his money. I doubt he would do very well against the Iranians who are more than a match for this guy.
Enough American blood has been shed in these insane wars. They have solved nothing. Donald Trump is no warrior. He can sabre rattle all he wants but no one in his right mind would follow him or MbS into battle. He is all alone on this one.
Let's look at the U.S. involvement: Saudi Arabia is the #1 recipient for U.S. weapons in the world. "The Pentagon and State Department have denied knowing whether American bombs were used in Yemen's most notorious airstrikes, which have struck weddings, mosques and funerals. A former senior State Department official said that the U.S had access to records of every airstrike over Yemen since the early days of the war, including the warplane and munitions used." The Trump Administration denies its own complicity in destroying Yemen and destabilizing the M.E. -- but freely blames Iran.
We, the US, supply, and have supplied, MANY weapons to the Saudis. They have been used to kill, maim and starve civilians. Yes, civilians. Men, women and children. For about 4 years. Four solid years of bombing.
And we have the nerve to say it is not OK to bomb a facility, a structure.
the author does a service by pointing out the flaw in the hawks thinking. The other side gets to move too. These neocon hawks are like children who think acting tough is the same as being tough, which means actually thinking out the relationships and interactions which may occur in any confrontation. For the most part they are fools projecting their personal problems on the larger sphere. There is no reason on earth, except some ancient mistakes made by the CIA and the Shah decades ago, that we do not have a good relationship with Iran. (Iran, FYI, has the second largest oil resources in the middle east, and, by the logic of our blind eye relationship with Saudi, should be being cultivated as a business partner.)
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@Paul "These neocon hawks are like children who think acting tough is the same as being tough, which means actually thinking out the relationships and interactions which may occur in any confrontation. "
YES. They don't think past the confrontation itself, the military part, which for them is the fun part. The rest of it is too much like hard--and collaborative--work.
11
@LS: True - neocons/hawks love to be the playground bully, but more often than that, back down when the adults enter the scene.
5
@Paul not to mention the fact, that has repressive as the Iran regime is, they at least have elections, women can drive, and there are many more rights accorded to their citizens than the Saudis. In fact compared to the Saudis, the Iranians are light years ahead of the Medievel Kingdom of Saud.
4
The main thing missing from the Trump administration, himself included, of course, is a good understanding of what diplomacy means. "Maximum pressure" itself is neither a strategy nor is it diplomatic. In order for any threat to be meaningful, it must be believable. And, a solid understanding of what is being pressured is also required. One can apply only a certain amount of pressure to an inflated or water-filled balloon before it bursts.
That is what we are facing, lack of understanding of the nature of the problem and what diplomacy means.
2
No doubt the Trump administration's national security revolving door and his "transactional" view of foreign relations has made the situation in the Persian Gulf far worse. However, we should have no doubt that the JCPOA relaxing of sanctions and return of billions of dollars of Iranian assets has fueled Iranian adventurism in Yemen and Syria and global terrorism. While we have serious issues with the Saudi monarchy, we also have a diplomatic and economic relationship that is nearly a century old and has had long term, bipartisan support. Consider a future in the region where Iran controls the tip the of Arabian peninsula, has bases in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and is transferring advanced weapons to terrorist states and non-state actors. This puts all western economies (and Japan & China) at risk.
We need to stay engaged with Saudi Arabia and encourage reform. Disengaging and waiting to see what happens would be a huge mistake.
The government of the nation of Saudi Arabia acted to kill a journalist and resident of the USA who was critical of the Saudi government.
America became America in a revolution based on the right to criticize any government, and the founders made it the very first of our Constitutional amendments because it is that important.
Trump has made plain what he thinks of the pillars of our democracy, our rights and how much he loves Saudi money.
McConnell and the feckless GOP will bow to Trump once again as Trump bows to Saudi cash.
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I can understand why Iranians might consider the US their enemy after the US's long history of aggressive talk and action. But why exactly should we in the US consider Iran our enemy? The nuclear deal showed that Iran and the US can deal on a diplomatic basis. And the US would benefit greatly by good relations with Iran. It seems to me that Israel's antipathy toward Iran (which never, by the way stated a policy of "wiping Israel off the map") is a key factor when coupled with a president who is so willing to please. If there has to be war between Israel and Iran, I hope the US can stay out of it.
2
If a drone attack is an act of war, then we have started wars with multiple countries with our constant drone attacks.
Saudi Arabia needs to fight its own war.
Of course, the Saudis can’t even defeat the Houthis. They are terrified of the Iranians.
Pompeo, Graham, Bolton (gone), Neocons, Israel, Saudi Arabia want war with Iran fought with American soldiers. They all supported the Iraq War fought with American blood and treasure.
Trump is the adult in the room!!!
We are in serious trouble.
52
We are not Saudis' mercenaries? Oh yes we are.
Actually worse.
The Bushes were completely in bed with oil interests, personal friends of the princelings. Very cozy.
Saudi money lubricates a lot of what goes on here. No one spends more on influencing our very decent legislators. Nothing is safe; think tanks, universities, museums, what not - all shaped by Saudi interests.
There is a distance between mercenaries and vassals; between a client state and a colony. But we are somewhere on these continua.
I clearly recall Bush II told to kiss off by the previous Saudi king, when he went there begging them to increase oil production. Rarely does anyone tell America to kiss off like that, without consequence. I have never seen an American elected leaders cloying up to any foreign powers - except to the Saudis.
We have an opportunity to start investing in a fossil fuel free economy, but I think we will prefer just plain throw American coin and lives to prop up monarchs because we indeed are bought and paid for. We will, unrepentantly engage in yet another endless war, this time with Iran and the Shia world to keep the Saudi princes safe, their oil wealth intact.
495
@Kalidan And also to keep Jared in funds.
21
@Kalidan you are right, except in saying "I have never seen an American elected leaders cloying up to any foreign powers - except to the Saudis." Just about the whole of Congress and all US presidents during the last 50 years, have been cloying up to Israel, a definite nuclear-armed regional power which loved to see the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, as requested.
34
@Kalidan
Yes. You are right. The military has been shifting assets for 9 months now, exactly as they have done before all of the Middle East wars of the past 50 years. They intend to go to war with Iran and will create a pretext for doing so. The Saudis own the US military outright. And they own it through American 'oil families' and their lackeys. May they drown in their own crude.
26
"We should be searching for ways to return to the agreement,..."
Never will that happen with this Administration. Never. So best to just hope and pray, though I do believe that is futile.
This warhawk Pompeo is just itching to start a military action against Iran. He wants to make a name for himself so he can be the next Senator from Kansas in 2020.
He'll do his best to convince the President to strike Iran. Though I don't believe Trump wants conflict, Pompeo will tell him if he doesn't, he'll be looked upon as weak and may very well lose the election.
That's all Trump needs to hear, then. "BOOM"
431
@cherrylog754 Thanks for reading my piece, but I think you're a whisker too pessimistic. Trump loves the spectacle of a deal, the vision of himself as a potential Nobel Peace Prize winner. So it seems to me just conceivable that there's a tweaked Iran deal with face saving elements that would allow Trump to claim victory, while also providing economic benefits that Ayatollah Khamenei could use to claim victory. Yes, it's difficult and I wouldn't bet on it, but it's not impossible. And it's kind of the only exit ramp, so please don't deny me that ray of hope!
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@cherrylog754
Actually there is an easy way back into that agreement; look at what Canada and Mexico did with the NAFTA revisions - give a tiny bit around the edges and let Trump declare victory.
45
@Nicholas Kristof: I agree with you. Trump's main concern is re-election next year. That goal supersedes everything else. Trump has his base, and there will be some "miraculous" solution (i.e., "win") with the trade war with China by next year to stoke the economy, and Trump is counting on the eventual Democratic presidential nominee being unpalatable enough to enough voters. Trump's strategy revolves around these things somehow putting him over the top with voters. That's his simple plan. Trump has shown no stomach for new wars; I very seriously doubt a war with Iran is factoring into his election plans. Surely Bolton wanted it, and Trump got rid of him. Pompeo will not convince Trump to go to war, either.
12
The US was NOT attacked by Iran and not one American was killed in this recent action. Saudi Arabia has its own military forces and can act to defend its own interests - this is NOT our fight.
And for those with short memory spans, the 9/11 attacks on America, with over 3,000 Americans murdered, was carried out by Saudi citizens who had been "educated" to hate all things American in Wahhabi madrases.
This is simply NOT our fight.
And if global oil supplies are affected then just maybe some will see the benefits of more renewable energy use, which cannot be affected by events half a world away.
897
@GTM
It is not our fight.
I lived in Iran and saw firsthand the results of the US backed Shah toppled from power.
I lived in KSA and saw firsthand that the Saudi’s will indeed fight with every last American.
Not our fight. Not our sons and daughters for what has been going on for longer than I care to think about.
97
@GTM Absolutely right! Simply. Not. Our. Fight.
28
@GTM
I've been waiting for someone to point out this fact.
Thank you.
23
Not responding militarily to Iran's attack is much more likely to lead to lead to a full war with Iran as Iran undoubtedly will take further military action against its foes if it suffers no consequence. Iran's leaders are not suicidal and are not afraid of a full-scale war. Its threat to launch one if the US responds is not a warning - it's a desperate bluff. Time to call it.
1
@Jay Orchard
Maybe it is high time the US faces some consequences for its bad behavior. Trump and his cabal are running amok.
"Iran has twice the population of Iraq and would be a much more formidable foe than Iraq was."
You aren't wrong about Iran being a more formidable foe than Iraq. However, this statement has no substance. You make the claim that a nation is a more formidable foe because of having a larger population without providing any evidence that population size is a factor for a country being a formidable military power.
Sophistication of military technology, conventional weaponry, size of air force/navy, nuclear warheads... all of these things are considered as well. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has the same population size as Iran at around 81 million people. I don't think you would find people considering the DRC a formidable foe if they were to enter a conflict.
This is nitpicking a little bit but I just like pointing out baseless claims.
Thank you Mr. Kristof for this spot-on analysis. However, I honestly don’t know who you mean when you say that U.S. troops are being cast as mercenaries working for a thuggish potentate - could be either MBS or Trump...
4
21st Century geopolitics is complicated stuff and does not easily lend itself to simplistic solutions. Can we afford to simply let the Saudis and Iranians “fight it out” and look the other way when we have, and have always had, massive interests in the region? I don’t think so.
You write: "Iran would strike back at sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Bahrain, and it would target American troops in Iraq or Afghanistan."
There's another and far more dangerous bit of leverage that Iran has, that you overlooked. Iran is the main supporter and military supplier for Hezbollah, the self-styled Party of God, embedded in Lebanon and continuing to gain combat experience in Syria.
Hezb has a supposed arsenal of many tens of thousand of missiles just north of Israel that are aimed at major Israeli cities.
If Iran gave the word, Hezb would attack; the carnage in Israel would be unparalleled with massive civilian casualties, and by massive I mean in the hundreds of thousands. Eager for World War III? That's where it's likely to begin, not with missile attacks on Saudi or retaliatory missile attacks on Iran.
2
Sanctions are an economic war against a nation's civilian population. The purpose is to destroy a nation's economy and deny food and medicine to the people. The US has been waging economic war against Iran and other nations for decades. Trump believes having the biggest and most expensive military he can conquer the world.
Trump is tearing down the house that generations before him built and we just stand there afraid of stopping the crazy Trump and his criminal cabal.
Why can't he be removed from office before it is too late?
5
I’m old enough to remember the oil embargo of the early 70s when tankers full of oil sat at anchor, refusing to unload.
The Saudis couldn’t believe their luck when Nixon didn’t do a thing about it, they really expected a response.
Then they formed OPEC and really started leading us around by the nose.
What is it with Republican presidents and Saudi Arabia?
Remember, the only civilian aircraft flying on 9/12 was carrying the Bin Lauden family, great friends of the Bush family.
5
In 1994 I lived in Kuwait. When Iraq massed troops on the border in October of that year, a rumour began circulating that Kuwaiti citizens would be called up for military service - to defend against another possible attack by Iraq. I was talking with a Kuwaiti youth who expressed his nervousness at being called up for duty. His comment was "Why should I go and put my life on the line? That's what we pay the Americans for."
A very telling comment that is, I think, still valid in today's environment.
6
The US should try to cooperate with Iran and Saudi Arabia and find a way to make them get along. If Trumpism really is "America First," then this is the time to live it. There is no reason for the US to be the Saudi's military arm. Unfortunately, we have men in power that know very little about what they are doing.
3
There is a young woman from Sweden visiting the United States who demonstrates more leadership qualities than we witness coming from those who suppose that they represent their nations best by making threats of sticks and stones, and breaking bones: Generally, not their own.
We have teenagers trying hard to communicate that we need show them that we have their needs and interests at heart. Therein lie qualities of leadership, and hope, and a willingness to follow a new path.
Leading people along paths to mutual hatred and destruction is cowardly. It isn't leadership. Listen to the children.
9
America needs a foreign policy and a military intervention policy based on principles. Those principles cannot include considerations of who buys more weapons from us.
If we are directly attacked, we must of course respond, as in Afghanistan after 9/11.
If we have signed a mutual defense treaty with other countries, such as NATO, we are obligated to defend them
If there is a humanitarian crisis, and there is an international consensus and willing coalition to deploy troops on a peacekeeping mission, we might respont
But since Korea, we have chosen to intervene in the affairs of other states where none of the principles were involved. Sovereign states were attacked by people we considered enemies. Sovereign states were undergoing civil wars. Sovereign states were roiled terrorists like ISIS that were not a direct threat to us. As we've learned, rarely has intervening in these situations directly protected our nation or benefited our economic interests.
We need a more thoughtful, principles-based policy, that doesn't make us the world's police force, or worse yet, mercenaries.
7
@Ken L 9/11 had mainly Saudis.....why strike Afghanistan? I've never understood that.
What is the prospect of China getting involved diplomatically? They are more concerned about Saudi oil than we are and, I would think, would relish the opportunity to play the role of peacemaker.
2
One of the reasons that Obama easily survived his “line in the sand” comment about Syria is because even though Assad was punishing his own people, Americans did not care much for any Syrian, regardless of affiliation. Russia knew this. So did Iran. Even though then Secretary of State Clinton urged US intervention, Obama decided to punt. Precisely the same idea holds now with Saudi Arabia. Their 9/11 involvement. Their Jamal K premeditated murder. Iran knows this. Trump may shiver along a line in the sand but there are few Americans who would rush to Saudi Arabia’s side. If there’s to be a war, it must not be with American boys. If Iran wants to tease a war out of their adversaries, let it be the House of Saud.
8
Donald Trump believes that just because we have amassed more nukes than Iran, we can somehow use them. This is the kind of thinking that will lead to the Third World War.
Everyone admits that it would be insane for either side to launch their nuclear arsenals against the other. Few, however, see the insanity in placing ourselves in a position where MAD is not only possible, but probably inevitable. If we are to pull away from the ridiculous posture we've now assumed, there will need to be a paradigm shift in human thought around the world, and particularly in the United States and Russia. If not, we are doomed. In the near future, we will program the human mind in the computer based on a linguistic "survival" algorithm, which will provide irrefutable proof as to how we trick the mind with our ridiculous beliefs about what is supposed to survive - producing minds programmed de facto for destruction. These minds see the survival of a particular belief as more important than the survival of all. When we understand this, we will begin the long trek back to reason and sanity.
See RevolutionOfReason.com
One of the reasons that Obama easily survived his “line in the sand” comment about Syria is because even though Assad was punishing his own people, Americans did not care much for any Syrian, regardless of affiliation. Russia knew this. So did Iran. Even though then Secretary of State Clinton urged US intervention, Obama decided to punt. Precisely the same idea holds now with Saudi Arabia. Their 9/11 involvement. Their Jamal K premeditated murder. Iran knows this. Trump may shiver along a line in the sand but there are few Americans who would rush to Saudi Arabia’s side. If there’s to be a war, it must not be with American boys. If Iran wants to tease a war out of their adversaries, let it be the House of Saud.
2
Thank you, Nick Kristof, for saying all this and saying it so well. We need to hear it!
5
"without appreciating the basic lesson of Sun Tzu or Clausewitz that the other side also gets to move."
This wisdom is obvious to kids as soon as they start playing team games, surely well before they read either Sun Tzu or Clausewitz. It takes a lot of (mis)education to erase such early experience.
4
"Instead, I’m afraid we risk slipping into conflict. Nobody wants a war, but getting out of this will require skillful diplomacy, which isn’t something the Trump team has much demonstrated."
The author needs to accept that there are plenty of actors, from Israel and Saudi Arabia to military industrial complex and oil companies, who very much want the US to attack and be at war with Iran.
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@TUKACIKE.....You nailed it. Israel, Saudi Arabia, the military industrial complex and the oil complex all were behind the disaster of the Iraq war. My money is on those four getting their way again.
1
Really really welcome article once again. Getting involved with yet another conflict when your stated policy is offshore balancing and America First etc and you're still struggling to get out of Afghanistan just doesn't add up to me is all I've got to add. Totally agree with everything else though. Great read.
2
I just now watched a CNN interview with an Iranian official who pointed out that the nuclear agreement was not between just President Obama and Iran but between the signee countries so he said trump's withdrawal was illegal and that if the U.S rejoined the agreement and withdrew the draconian sanctions that trump imposed this crisis would be averted. Why hasn't this point been made by our congress and why did trump get away with withdrawing in the first place? Speak of dem politicians, please.
17
NK’s article raises many important points; it’s inaccurate in others. Yemen is far from the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Syria’s civil war, shaped in part by President Obama’s inaction, with 400,000 deaths and 5.7 million refugees remains the most devastating. While I would condemn any U.S. military action in defense of the Saudi regime, the anemic U.S. response in Syria coupled with the inept interference in Libya and failures in Egypt are prime, yet ignored, contributors to the current destabilized Middle East. Legitimate governments in Syria, Egypt and even Libya would strengthen the Arab position and provide a bulwark against Iranian aggression.
2
>>> "Syria’s civil war, shaped in part by President Obama’s inaction . . ."
Syria's civil war was, in fact, largely provoked by the US and its allies (notably KSA and Israel) attempting to take advantage of civil unrest in that nation to try to foment "regime change."
"Inaction" was definitely *not* the problem.
@kpariser All the events you list would not have happened if the neocons had not forced a war with Irag. This destabilized the Middle East, not Obama! Irag was contained and still was able to minimized Iran's influence in the region. We created this mess......
We do not project our own values in Saudi Arabia. While we acknowledge the country is our ally, we fail to insist on reform, starting with putting MBS out to pasture, ending the war in Yemen, and supporting women's rights. Not to mention tracking down the courses of funding for Salafist terrorists, who may include duper-rich Saudi sheiks, and cutting them off. Try leading instead of following the Saudis, Mr Trump, and you may find the key to unlock the puzzle with Iran.
7
Thank you for another stimulating column Mr. Kristof.
We can only hope that 2020 comes before the apocalypse and that the Dems have better judgement that Trump's GOP.
The Dem debate, really a show and tell, told me that there are capable people in the party. If we can keep the DNC, 'Wall Street' and the media from jamming Biden down our throats there is a chance to begin to rebuild our country.
Almost as depressing as Trump and his minions under the direction of the real power, (the money). destroying our democracy and endangering the world is the lack of counter force from Congress.
Besides Iran/Saudi we have many other festering world issues that are being ignored,
For the sake of my grandchildren and everyone else's grandchildren in the US and around the world I hope we can vote, shift power to the people and begin to destroy the military/industrial/oil/finance cabal that has ruined our great nation.
7
Remember Colin Powell’s speech regarding Iraq’s WMD and what a farce that was. More investigation from the international community is needed to determine what happened and who is responsible. We have been lied to since day one by this administration ( crowd size inauguration). The press should investigate this action and not blindly follow this administrations ultimate desire for war. The hundreds of thousands of dead souls in Iraq shouldn’t be repeated.
6
A clear and pragmatic description of a mess. Future historians will be amazed by the self-deceptive perceptions of the Europeans and the USA about the "guardians of oil" and our vital economic interests. After 1973, the first oil crisis the so-called West should have rewritten the Middle East equation and the grip of totalitarian regimes on the black blood of our economy and prosperity. Now we are hostages of theocratic regimes totally corrupt "royal" houses and tribal conflicts that go back for at least 20 centuries. I am afraid it is too late to put in order both our house and the Middle East conundrum. The Middle East is turning to a huge and catastrophic Afganistan.
2
Sorry, don't buy this. Sure, Trump makes mistakes. But Iran has been an aggressor for a long time. It won't end well.
1
One thing the Iranian actions show is that the sanctions are working because Iran is clearly engaging in more and more desperate measures. The regime may be more unpopular at home than we even imagine and Trump’s restraint militarily has been smart, he responded with even more sanctions which are clearly hurting rather than force which the Iranian regime could use to bolster their popularity. If Iran wants a military confrontation they will need to outright strike and not hide behind denials and if they do that it will be their end. Meanwhile the oil keeps flowing, it is the Iranians not the US who are in trouble. But as the old saying goes, be wary of desperate people with nothing left to lose.
3
Is the debate about war with Iran or war more generally connected to the nra and the refusal to enact gun legislation? Are the manufacturers of hand guns the same as those who make weapons of war? Is the Iran controversy and the debate about war more generally related to the refusal to face climate catastrophe and the fear of taking on big oil? A lot of very powerful and wealthy individuals and corporations make fortunes on the backs of the men and women who too often lose their lives or sanity thinking they are protecting democracy. This is not to mention the thousands in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam and Syria who lose everything because of these so called wars to protect freedom. After the devastation of these nations, where are these people to go? Then these same people are labeled illegal immigrants for trying to find safety. Are we to again wage war, this time in Iran?
10
If history is any guide (and it is), everyone should note that unwise military adventures and expenditures have doomed many mighty empires over the last 3000 years. Time to wake up to these facts. We don't need Saudi oil, and we need not use our blood and treasure to protect it.
11
It is MBS the one playing Sun Tzu or Clausewitz, not Trump or Pompeo. Trump and Pompeo are the ones with the next move without the Iran nuclear deal.
Pompeo says that the attacks on Saudi soil are Iran's acts of war because his boss had tweeted that he was waiting for Saudi Arabia's position. My educated guess is that MBS called Trump with instructions. So, yes, that makes us the Saudi's mercenaries. Human rights? Not taken into consideration.
8
Mr. Kristof: Thank you for your steadfast attention to reason where reason seams to be in short supply. We need to embrace and put to use the few devises that remain that might get the attention of leadsers who are the root of this crisis that we suffer. War is not a moral, nor a strategic option. The inmorality comes from its very nature, and from the role that we have played in this conflict and in the recent ones related to it. Strategically it will be a disaster whose outcome is already fortold by recent history. The independent voices in our country need to make this clear to Trump and his administration.
6
It would seem reasonable to target all drones in Iran in retaliation for its drone activities. If a few military planes happen to be in the same hanger, that is the price to be paid for recent aggression.
Unfortunately, the unintended consequence of driving up the price of oil may help help Iran overcome the economic sanctions already in place.
Iran has been a bad actor long before Mr. Trump. Pretending that the 205 Iranian nuclear deal was working was not a viable option. Mr. Trump is willing to talk but there is no urgency.
1
The 2015 agreement was working. Iran held up its side of the agreement. This was supported by Russia, China, UK, and the EU. A “better” agreement cannot be had. We pulled out because our insecure president must criticize and end anything accomplished by the previous administration. He has no political capital in the world to build a coalition. He squandered that by attacking our allies and praising Putin and Kim. He is in way over his head.
13
@Eugene Patrick Devaney
There are limits to our ability to control other countries, as the current mess shows. The Iran deal, while imperfect, strengthened the moderates in the Iranian government. When Trump unilaterally ended it, the Iranian hawks were proved right and now they have more power and are aggressively pursuing their agenda.
All governments, even undemocratic ones, need some degree of support from their people. If Trump gets us into a war with Iran, Americans are likely to boot him out in 2020. That limits his options. If Iranians find the sanctions too onerous and don't see a diplomatic solution, they will support hawks, which is what we see now.
1
Armchairing it. How does a nation, even with all the intelligence and weapons at its disposal, in a defensive counter-attack manner, target ‘all the drones’ in Iran ?
US is to be blamed for the escalation. Trump likes to meddle in other nations’ business and pretending to be their savior.
Saudi Arabia, Iran and UAE cannot afford a war because that will devastate their only resource and livelihood, oil.
Trump, as the great dealer he claims to be, encouraged the conflict and he promised them his support for a price of course.
They now feel more confident the US will come to their rescue and they started daring each other.
US is also responsible for letting Israelis assume that the US will
support them no matter what. Having the backing of the US allowed Israel to abandon the two state solution, grab more land and continue the inhumane treatment of the Palestinians.
Making promises we can’t keep, the US has prevented these Middle East countries to try to find solutions to their conflicts, to take matters in their own hands and focus on peace. Fear is a great motivator for compromise.
8
I know it's somewhat off-topic, but I'd like to thank Mr Kristof for so often including women's rights as basic human rights in so many of his columns. I suspect there are many people who see these general issues as only military.
Actually, I guess what I'm saying is that it ISN'T off-topic, and I'm grateful that Mr Kristof sees it that way.
11
Excellent article! I remember Trump's first visit was to Saudi Arabia. Do you think he struck an agreement with them against Iran? Perhaps that led to the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement.
5
The Saudi's have become irrelevant. Some would say shale and fracked gas has changed the conversation but I would say that the end of fossil fuels is becoming more plausible to more leaders, as renewable energy grows around the world. Insurance and banking interests are withdrawing from fossil fuels. That pretty much tells it all. AND the Saudi's oil fields have been used up enough, that their reliability is no longer a given. Even they are using solar. Our biggest use of fracked gas, that I can see is in the proliferation of the production of plastic which is choking our environment. And that has to end.
13
You spoke quicker than I. Let these sorts of damages to fossil fuels hasten our migrations to green energy. But, alas, as it is for rebuilding homes in coastal storm floodplains. The vested interests reinvest in the past infrastructure which sustains their cash flow and positions.
3
@Carolyn Egeli that is wishful thinking. The economy would tank without fossil fuels.
2
Explain this. Nobody says it must be immediate and abrupt. So spell out why it cannot be done.
Great article. Iran is sending the message that (1) it has nothing to lose, (2) is less hesitant than the US to go to war and (3) will not sit idle and that the only solution is to stop the sanctions or go back to the agreement.
2
I was glad to see Senator Mitt Romney weigh in on the matter. He said the attack was on Saudi Arabia, not the U.S.. He also said that we've sold all this weaponry to Saudi Arabia so they could defend themselves. It's their call how that wish to respond.
That's how we stay out of war with Iran. The U.S. doesn't need to become Salman's patsy. Also it would be a good idea if Trump decided to dust off Obama's nuclear weapons agreement with Iran and five other nuclear powers. That was the original way we stayed out of war with Iran.
15
Best line:
“That’s the problem with hawks. They plan out their chess games and triumphantly plot a checkmate without appreciating the basic lesson of Sun Tzu or Clausewitz that the other side also gets to move.”
7
what we have here is a classic principal agent problem, a reason the emoluments clause was created -- we have no idea ever in whose interests he's serving, although we can too often guess. Here, his personal interests in Saudi have been problematic from the start. And the GOP's inaction on reining him in, frankly many Dems as well, is both scary and reprehensible.
5
It is infuriating that oil has cemented an alliance with Saudi Arabia that endures past the point of dependence on the oil. We were asleep when the Saudis funded the growth of extremist Islamic ideology and were rudely awakened when that ideology produced the 9/11 hijackers.
There is little to recommend Saudi Arabia over Iran.
What are the billions of dollars we have poured into SA for if not to defend themselves. We need to stay out of it.
Here’s a novel idea: switch sides.
3
Their are no adults in Washington willing to discipline the man-child Trump. So, it is not just Trump who brought this on, it is whole dysfunctional set up - legislative and judicial.
14
I wholeheartedly agree with Nicholas Kristof on this one.
And I would add that need I point out who was responsible for knocking down the Twins? Do I really?
So while I'll acknowledge that the international political arena is one of extreme hard-ball, and so we can't necessarily do what I would love to see done - walk into the Saudis homeland and remove that royal family from power as payback - I do think America should simply stand aside in this matter. We have no dog in this race.
We should let all the pigeons let loose by the Saudis come home to roost, directly on their heads. Seems fair to me; and I'll admit it will give me complete satisfaction in seeing it happen, too.
John~
American Net'Zen
4
Blame all of this on the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916. Why are we still fighting WWI? Virtually every war in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East has been caused by WWI. It will never end! Sykes-Picot divided up the Middle East into countries where the population could never get along. Having studied it, I have seen no reasoning that could be applied to what they did and what they did was basically a secret until it was exposed by the Russians after the fact.
No, we are not the Saudis' Mercenaries and because of Trump's reluctance to shed any American blood, all we will do is continue to supply sophisticated weaponry to the Saudis for their bombardment of Yemen and what will probably be the bombardment of Iran.
When it comes to allies in that area, we are on tenuous ground with both the Saudis and the Israelis because if either of them gets into a war, regardless of with whom, we will be involved in some way and sooner or later the war will come to us and not us to them.
Trump is afraid of going into war and chicken hawks like Graham and Bolton have prodded him toward it for a long time. I call Graham a chicken hawk knowing that he was in the AF Reserve, but he was a layer, never in the trenches, always behind a walnut desk. It is easy to be a chicken hawk if you are not the one being shot at.
No, we are not going to be active in the war other than part of the supply train.
2
@Bill Dooley Pardon me for my typo, Graham is a lawyer, but then even chicken hawks have hens, so maybe it is the right word after all.
..“to cooperate with European countries ....“
Ah, last time I checked that ship has sailed long ago. Just about the time Trump decided America’s long time allies and trade partners needed a dose of disrespect served with a dash of humiliation.
So The Emperor can go figure it out on his own.
5
The dangers posed by the Trump-manufactured Iranian crisis are severely compounded by the fact that Mr. Trump will evaluate response options through his egocentric prism: How will this make me look? How will this likely effect me electorally?
It is hard to overstate the precarious situation created by that fact.
4
Trump must know that these wars are not ‘TV show cliffhangers’. A trade war can be and fits his personality and MO. Create a major problem, such as be canceling NAFTA, and then ‘solve it’ just before the season ends. He thrives on suspense and attention. A war gives him neither.
Oh, and since we haven’t won a major war since WW2 (except the coalition led Gulf war 1), it’s unlikely that Trump comes off as a hero. At best, he will look like the guy who aids the crown prince who kills US journalists.
6
If I were Saudi Arabia I wouldn’t be looking for war, with or without US help. The drone attack demonstrated that the oil that is the sole support of the SA state is extremely vulnerable. A war with Houthis, who have little oil, or a war with Iran, which can’t sell what oil it has, begs an attack on SA’s oil facilities. Better to stand down.
2
Clearly maximum pressure has been applied to prevent any possibility of negotiation with Iran at the UN. Hardliners in Iran were opposed to JCPOA no less than was John Bolton. Perhaps the hardliners are cooperating?
What role if any Iran had in the attack on Saudi oil facilities may never be known with certainty. The Yemenis would certainly have had reasons to respond to merciless bombing by the Saudis.
There is a conflict between Saudi and Iranian interests. A appropriate role for the global superpower would be to encourage dialogue between the parties. Perhaps dialogue could lead to cessation of violence in Yemen and actions against Saudi infrastructure. Dialogue could also be linked to U.S. reentry to JCPOA and relief from sanctions. This could be the reward that would get Iran to the table with Saudi Arabia to resolve their mutual concerns.
What cannot be ignored is ISIS. ISIS was born in the chaos that emerged in Iraq with the U.S. occupation. ISIS overran much of Iraq and Syria. Iran's support was crucial to push ISIS back to where it is no longer a territorial power. ISIS is regrouping. Now, someone is bombing the positions of the Popular Mobilization Force in Iraq and Syria that was first formed with the support of Iran to fight ISIS. Will ISIS again retake territory if the PMF is destroyed? The PMF is now a part of Iraq's military and unlike ISIS it is not a terrorist organization.
1
Mr. Kristof, I focus on your use of the word "mercenaries."
Our Department of Defense is now mainly a mercenary force, and as a veteran I hate that. And now yet again we have to consider the prospect of engaging our armed forces, comprised primarily of young men and women who had limited economic opportunity in the US, in a battle that doesn't make the least difference to them.
There is one solution that will resolve both the immoral use of our young men and women to fight on foreign shores, and well as the immoral and bellicose policy so many administrations pursue. That solution is a universal draft with no deferments. Let the sons and daughters of the powerful, the politicians, the hedge fund and private equity managers, the CEOs, let them all have "skin in the game" in the truest sense - the lives of their children. No other action would bring such immediate clarity to our collective thinking about foreign conflicts.
27
@Greg
And what is wrong with that? The US should prtect countries where democracy is in danger but where the country in danger can afford it they must pay. The Saudis are not paying. Neither is Western Europe and japan. Let them pay their fair share and we can use that money to partially pay for MEDICARE 4 ALL.
MEDICARE 4 ALL is the final step in making the USA a fully civilized country.
War with Iran need not be a catastrophe for us. And just saying it encourages the other hawks, the hawks in Iran.
I don't think diplomacy can persuade Iran to stop being our enemy. Or stop them from developing nukes. Nuclear proliferation would be worse, in the long term, than any war with Iran.
Both Syria and Iraq were stopped from going nuclear by smart air power.
1
This article is spot in. To anyone who suggests bombing Iran, the question should be “And then what?” Iran will respond, if not Hezbollah too, and then we’ll respond, and then we’ll soon find ourselves in a deadly, protracted, destructive, and unwinnable war that will make the Iraq War look tame in comparison. And we won’t have European allies this time. Israel may get dragged into it. It could light the whole Middle East on fire. Trump’s instincts to avoid war are correct, but he put us in this position and now he needs to find a negotiated way out of it. It’s the only solution. Let’s pray he realizes that.
17
@Dan
Iran is going to have to be stopped. We can do it before they have nukes or after. Which seems safer?
Mr. Kristof's column should be published on the FRONT PAGE of the NYTimes. Any American military response to the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran will be a disaster. Fortunately, the other major players who would ordinarily act in concert in an allied western response, will not agree to do so; without the agreement from France and G.B. the president's and Pompeo's threats will hopefully fizzle out.
23
I agree with the column. As a matter of fact I am rather surprised by the "outrage" the attack on the Saudi oilfields has caused in the US and the US press. I wish a similar outreach would be expressed in view of the permanent bombing oy Yemen with strong military/logistic support by the United States. But when somebody kicks back, they start screaming. The US has opened Pandora's box with the invasion of Iraq, they apparently have not learned anything over the last decade, now they talk about attacking Iran. One really must wonder where the ignorance - to avoid stronger words - of the present US government will lead us.
31
Why in the world we would want to get involved in a Muslim religious war is beyond me. The media never mention that this is a feud between Sunnis and Shiites that goes back a thousand years. And why would we take the side of the Sunnis when every terrorist attack in the US, Europe, and Russia is perpetrated by Sunni extremists? The Iran-Iraq war of the '80s was religious, the war in Yemen is religious, the current fighting between Saudi Arabia and Iran is also religious. If they insist on warring, that is not a reason for Americans to get involved.
39
Particularly, not to involve ourselves in these wars because the POTUS won’t give a Muslim the time of day in our Country. In fact he wants to be rid of them.
2
This proposed war is -- again -- to secure the junkie's supply of fossil fuel. Why not instead spend the trillion on solar panels and transport infrastructure?
24
Frankly, this was a very convenient attack and the timing couldn't be better for Trump. A war with Iran would be just the ticket to get him reelected--it's the GW Bush playbook, it works and he knows it. That is the scary part. The idea that he would revert back to an Obama Agreement is beyond optimistic--that would take thoughtful circumspect indeed and if Trump was capable of that...well he never would have pulled out of it in the first place.
18
The Russian economy is the biggest beneficiary of the attacks on Saudi oil installations.
I do not put it past Putin to have initiated the strikes to help his oil revenues and increase the instability in the Middle East.
The Middle East is not our fight to wage!
20
Thank you for this column. I cannot understand Mr. Trump’s bluster, and deference to Saudi Arabia. Why should we respond militarily to this action? Your column captured the essence of my concerns.
27
The article leaves out one thing: it is to Trump's advantage to activate Iran as an enemy, so that he can run on "being tough" and call anyone who tries to discuss the issue in a nuanced or complex way "soft on Iran". (It is also to Netanyahu's advantage, or was, until yesterday.)
7
No, we are NOT the Saudis' Mercenaries, nor Donald Trump's.
At the eve of the US Iraq invasion, I was in Austin, Tx visiting my customers with my colleague, who is a Republican hawk. He assured me that we'll crush Iraqis within a week.
Yes, we crushed Iraq and George W. Bush declared 'mission accomplished' on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003.
But US troops are still in Iraq. We won the war, but have not been able to keep the victory for more than sixteen long years.
Republican hawks have not learned from history.
Donald Trump is even worse. Asking him for a smart diplomatic solution is like to ask a fish climbing a tree. That is mission impossible!
Donald Trump breaks the Iran nuclear deal, but he does not have the intelligence to fix the complicated international puzzle.
We may have to wait until January 2021 to see the light from the horizon if we can vote Donald Trump out of the White House.
26
You wouldn't expect to win a conventional war in a single hour. Why assume a counter insurgency can be won in a decade?
2
I don't understand why everyone's trying to say it is Iran's war. We, Iranian people, hate wars too. We lost millions of lives, our families and closest friends during the 8-year Iran-Iraq war. As far as Yemen-Saudi conflict is concerned, let all of us help them to resolve the issue diplomatically.
55
We should not spill American blood for Saudi oil.
The Saudis wouldn't lift a finger to help us in any conflict; they feel no loyalty to the United States.
They don't fight their own battles. They sit back and watch others fight for them.
They don't even maintain adequate security for their own country, oil fields and refineries.
The Saudis ridicule Americans and only tolerate us because we need their oil and they want us to defend them.
We are largely a Christian nation and we offend them on that point alone.
No American blood spilled for Saudi oil.
56
While I agree that avoiding war will require diplomatic finessing, isn't it possible that we've lost the option of a new nuclear deal thanks to Trump?
The Iranians are desperate for the sanctions to be lifted, but Trump's reversal on the nuclear deal showed that American promises expire with the person who made them. Making a deal the first time took an incredible amount of trust in American faith, they won't make that mistake a second time.
Our solution is either a deal that is unacceptably lopsided with favourable terms to Iran, or to remain in this halfhearted brinksmanship that might end in massive loss of life. Obama gave us a middle-road, flawed as it was, and now Trump's burned it to the ground without an alternative.
35
That it is not the United States’ fight is more than a correct statement. The Saudis have billions in American military technology; let them defend themselves.
But the Saudis have a fundamental problem: who wants to die for such a corrupt and odious regime? The princes know that they cannot rely on the support of their own people to do their bidding. Think “boots in the sand” ala the first Iraq war. The Saudi “army” bugged out at their border when they thought that the Iraqis were coming. U.S. troops had to step in to save the day. But there were lots of Saudi boots left in the sand. It was a lasting image.
39
Nice article but I must disagree on one point. Getting USA back into the nuclear deal may not change the dynamic between Iran and Saudi Arabia one whit. Indeed if that were the aim of the Saudi bombings, its lost on me. It would appear however that despite all the weapons and defense systems w sell to Saudi Arabia, they have no clue how to use them to defend the oil fields. Perhaps Putin was correct when he said that the Saudis should buy their missile defense system from Russia since that have a better product!!!
2
It is interesting that the topic being discussed is whether the Trump administration will listen to his hawkish allies and strike Iran. Yet, have we even discussed what authority Trump has to take such actions?
35
This is the Middle East, the graveyard of best-laid plans. The deeper problem is that Saudi Arabia has evolved into our "new Iran" -- that is, the proxy power the U.S. looks to for defense of U.S. interests. The shah didn't work out. And neither will MBS. At that point, the U.S. will have few cards left to play.
In addition, air craft carriers are likely obsolete. What the media has "missed" about the attack on Abqaiq is--what if it had been a U.S. carrier instead? I suspect a U.S. force could easily get caught with pants down vs hard to detect incoming low level cruise missiles and drones. They don't all have to get through, after all.
6
Mr. Kristof, you focus a lot on whether the US should engage in combat with Iran on Saudi Arabia's behalf. But we could instead just force the Saudis to fight their own fights. It would require more work and courage than they've proven able to muster recently, to be sure. Definitely more work than hijacking airliners, blowing themselves up among unsuspecting civilians, or abusing the women amongst them. And it's tough to find motivated talent to do that among a population that busies itself wiener-hour-a-day makework jobs sipping tea for some state bureaucracy that their wife's family got for them. But if it's as critically important to establish once and for all that Abu Bakr was the warlord to succeed Muhammad, rather than Ali (as the Shia believe), then some sacrifice will be required. And I'm sure they can muster the energy. Someday. Maybe after another few centuries of stagnation and blaming the rest of the world for succeeding while they continue to stagnate into irrelevance....
12
And here is a novel idea: America stops supplying weapons of mass destruction to Saudi, Israel and around the world.
Oil wars has been going on for a long, long time. The US has done a lot of shady things in pursuit of oil stability. This is yet another instance. These wars are getting darker and more problematic. But the US is certainly trapped by the long standing use of oil for virtually everything that uses energy to produce. Oil is running out in the Saudi lands and the US will begin to pursue oil stability elsewhere, maybe in Russia. Good luck with that one. We need wiser heads than there are in this administration to solve this pressing and dangerous issue.
13
"That’s the problem with hawks. They plan out their chess games and triumphantly plot a checkmate without appreciating the basic lesson of Sun Tzu or Clausewitz that the other side also gets to move."
I'll eat my hat (I'll buy one) if Pompeo, Trump or his new NSC advisor has read either Sun Tzu or Carl Von Clausewitz. Seriously, it requires a working brain and patience. Not an evangelical fervor, or a yes man advising a burger eating non-reader who only wants a victory in foreign policy without putting in the hard work.
18
@Gary Valen
Trump thinks it’s either some Chinese food or a place in his father’s birthplace, Germany. Sorry, couldn’t resist, been a bad week and it’s only Wednesday nite.
2
This is not our war.
Iran did not attack the United States - and an attack on the US should be the only basis for military action at the present time.
Trump reneged on a deal that a multinational coalition agreed to, and that Iran was upholding. Trump is the true provocateur in this situation.
145
And I wait for convincing evidence that Iran attacked Saudi Arabia.
Where is Condoleeza Rice with the mushroom clouds?
Saudi Arabia has a lot to answer to in Yemen.
2
Thank you. Direct, to the point, classic common sense. You are right - we are not mercenaries, we are not hired guns. Think much of the existing Saudi Military probably is. Have studied and pondered our history with Iran. We have much to atone for. And, the long proud history of that country. Think it is time we take a re-set and set about restoring a normal relationship. Better to mend fences than drop bombs. Believe the younger generations in Iran will ultimately change the tenor and outlook of their country. It is their task, not ours.
25
No, we're not -- not the Saudis’ Mercenaries, that is. But are we their ally? Are we going to act as such? And isn't Iran doing its level best to solidify themselves as our enemy?
4
@Hugh: No, we aren't their ally. It's been easy to get that impression, with all the visiting back and forth, and the oil business and so on, but apparently we have no treaty obligations in this matter. It's not our fight unless we want to jump in.
25
The Saudis could be forgiven for thinking that their close allies, the USA, would fight for them. After all:
- We fought the Gulf War on their behalf, triggering, among other things, Osama bin Laden turning against us and leading to both the World Trade Center bombing in 1993 and the Sept 11 attack.
- We attacked Iraq on their behalf.
- We've turned a blind eye to their many crimes, including their support for ISIS.
- We've been drone-striking Yemen for years now on their behalf.
I agree that we should have questioned this alliance a long time ago, but don't act like we haven't been doing all sorts of terrible things in defense of this monarchy.
40
@Dave you did read the piece, I assume? It's made clear we sponsoring the attacks on Yemen.
2
@Dave and no matter how you look at it, most of the 9/11 attackers were Saudis.
1
A good essay, Mr. Kristof, but according to our President we ARE
helpful mercenaries for the Saudis. Today on NPR a number of Trump's comments beginning with full page ads before he ran for President and going to the present day, were read and played. He is quite explicit. Saudi money is our motivation. And Trump brags that much of the money goes to him personally.
20
By aligning himself with the Saudis; Trump shouldn't be surprised by the situation he finds himself in. I pray that he doesn't succeed in embroiling the military in another endless, costly conflict.
I have a few questions. Isn't there a statute somewhere in US law that allows a sitting president to postpone an election if the country is at war? I pray that this isn't another of Trumps feeble attempts to change the conversation. Perhaps before the whistle blower in the WH can be heard by Congress?
We can never lose sight of what MBS is capable of. Finally, why did the government need to wait for the Saudi decision before they acted? The US Intelligent services are second to none. If they are drawing conclusions from the direction the assault came from; I would respectfully remind the Saudis that the earth is round.
7