The “Hong Kongers” may not have the rights they think they do and are playing a poor hand. The Western World is weak at the moment due to Trump, in the United States, not knowing or caring that China and Taiwan were not one and the same and the EU struggling with the Brexit controversy. They need to fold for now and wait until they have a more favorable West otherwise the bloodshed you predict will be for naught.
Who are the protester’s leaders, anyway? If they’re unorganized and leaderless they are allowing hormones rather than gray matter make their decisions. Who’s ready to help them de-escalate - not the West.
1
What a crazy way to deal with protests. If protesters have gas masks, what is the point of lobbing tear gas at them? In any case, rather than using the military and police to harass protesters, it might make more sense to actually set up a way to speak with protesters. When up to 1/4 of the population is willing to expose themselves to police tactics, something is very wrong in the city that must be addressed with more than suppression.
3
"The Hong Kong chief executive, Carrie Lam, who has all the charisma of a fish in a tank in a Cantonese restaurant . . . ."
Succumbing to your mean-spirited inner middle schooler, Mr. Kristof?
Pray tell, how is her "charisma quotient" possibly of any relevance? Does she not sufficiently act out and entertain you? Ought she aspire to some of the cloying gesticulation and ululation and high dramatic dudgeon of, say, an Elizabeth Warren?
Would you care to evaluate your own charisma for our edification? To quote Inspector Japp from "Poirot," are you a "boiled owl"? Henceforth, why don't you put on your op-ed check list "charisma evaluation" for ANYONE you may write about?
The faith the young people seem to have in the West gives me chills. What West? The Johnson-Trump show has left France Germany Norway Sweden and a few other nations still struggling to stand for and function with democratic ideals. Good luck with that.
1
Some of the accounts of supporters of both China and the protesters remind of Vietnam v Nixon times, rebels v "law-and-order" supporters. Hong Kongers who support Beijing sound just like Spiro Agnew and company.
2
"The free world will support Hong Kong," one young demonstrator says. These words send a chill down my spine. When has the so-called free world supported any movement for real freedom and democracy when the economic chips were down? Never, really, except for exclamations of dismay or drawing phantom red lines in the sand. Syria, Egypt, Tibet, Ukraine, Kashmir, Honduras...the list goes on and on. Hypocrisy seems to be our specialty, at home as well as abroad. (How have those in power treated the First Nations on this continent since the beginning?) Yes, Hong Kong is a miraculous exception to the rule -- something like this wouldn't last more than several hours in Shanghai -- but the rule always seems to prevail. I pray for these people.
97
@free range Sadly, I agree. If blood runs in the streets of Hong Kong, there will be candle light vigils, angry speeches and modest sanctions. But note that President Trump already bought into the Beijing narrative by describing the protesters as "rioters." I wish that world leaders would make clearer that Xi Jinping will pay a severe price if he orders a military crackdown.
60
@Alkoh
Are you trying to make some kind of point? Are you trying to participate in the conversation?
If so, please explain.
1
@Nicholas Kristof
To me, and many of my relatives and friends who live in and love Hong Kong, the violent and disruptive acts from these people qualified them as the rioters! It is sad that these rioters have demonstrated that one country two systems does not work. People here no longer have the freedom of going to any places they like for their family activities. We have to check the planned activities of these rioters before we make or cancel or plan! We lost our freedom because of them, and we have to deal with the rubbish and the "full of rubbish" walls every where and every tunnel and footbridge. The only one complain I have is that Hong Kong government is too weak, and does not know how to manage these riots properly. No country will let the people break laws and orders like Hong Kong.
4
"Thus one of Xi’s legacies: He has tarnished the word “Chinese.”
You are wrong.
What has tarnished the word "Chinese" is the British occupation of Hong Kong since the Opium Wars in the 1880s.
Hong Kong Chinese have grown up as British subjects and that is what makes them Hong Kongers, not Chinese.
They don't speak Mandarin, they speak Cantonese and British English. But that is not all that is vastly different from being "Chinese."
As well, Americans of Chinese descent also viewed Chinese from Hong Kong as Hong Kongers, British colony subjects who were not Chinese.
Mr. Kristof - I hate to tell you this but what's going on in Hong Kong is not even remotely similar to what went on at Tiannamen Square. Don't even try to apply your first hand observance in 1989 to today's protests in Hong Kong.
Funny isn't it - that Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong, once dryly noted “history is littered with the carcasses of decapitated geese.” Being a British imperialist, he would know, wouldn't he.
3
@Mimi
Mimi - Not just Daddy Xi, but the entire Communist Party have ruined the remarkable Chinese culture that has rightly awed for thousands of years. Whether it be the 50 million or so who starved to death under Mao or the 10,000 dead students in Tiananmen, the horrific 20-year persecution 100 million Falun Gong, cultural genocide of Tibet, internment of a million Uighurs - (that’s just up to today), the CCP will go down in history as evil. Comparisons are already being made in Australia and elsewhere to the Nazis of the 1940s (Chinazis).
4
The people of Venezuela are suffering. Lives totally disrupted. Many on the edge where hunger becomes starvation. There's no end in sight. Not much media uproar or public outrage.
Hong Kong Chinese live in one of the most developed and prosperous cities in the world. While some are poor and live in dark squalor, most are, relative to Asia, well off.
HK has world class education, one of the world's busiest shipping ports, and the biggest air cargo hub, hauling all that stuff made in Shenzen to the world.
As a global finance center HK has the 6th largest stock exchange, capitalized at $3.7 trillion. 1 in 7 in HK is a millionaire -- a million millionaires. Count 93 HK billionaires, just 10 off NYC. HK has per capita the most Rolls Royces in the world.
Most of that wealth springs from China when it was closed and HK was the only gateway. Compared to the rest of Asia (Singapore for example canes people for graffiti) HK Chinese enjoy great personal and cultural freedom and travel freely.
Cynics snicker that some protestors just want to provoke China so they can claim asylum status in the US. Better than the $500,000 it cost HK emigrants to enter Canada after the hand-over. Vancouver is now 30% Chinese.
Tension between the US and China crackles. This is a flash-point wrought with danger. This isn't Tiananmen when peaceful Chinese flocked there hoping to see the sunrise.
HK is a temple to free-wheeling capitalism. Not the Arab Spring.
Don't cry for me, Argentina.
5
My understanding is that Shanghai is increasingly becoming a center of finance.
Most Hongkongers over twenty years' old have mixed feelings about China. By blood, we are Chinese. But many Hongkongers are disgusted with how Beijing treat its own people (Tibet, Xinjiang, the "lower-end" people in Beijing city) and how Hong Kong government kowtow to Beijing and show no respect for the needs of locals, pouring in trillions of dollars in infrastructure while ignoring the housing crisis, wealth gap and care for elderly and under-privileged. You can find more jewellery stores, pharmacies and luxury goods that cater to mainland tourists than grocery stores in any neighbourhood. And that is why people in Hong Kong do not want to be called "Chinese". I grew up and was educated in Hong Kong before moving to Canada shortly after Tiananmen Massacre. I still remember as a kid, how my parents and relatives had to haul groceries and wire money into China to help build houses, fix roofs and save lives. I still remember how eager were Hong Kong people in raising money for disaster relief in China after earthquake and severe flooding. And of course I remember the outpour of support and emotions over the students at Tiananmen Square. For thirty years, Hong Kong still remembers. I attended the peaceful protest in Toronto early this month to show support for Hong Kong. We are now called "traitor" and "thug". Why? We don't know how this movement will end. But Hongkongers do know that they have to keep fighting - in a non-violent way I prefer!
4
I lived in Hong Kong for several years although many years ago now. I have many fond memories of those years and feel fortunate to have experienced such a vibrant city.
Of course I follow the events of my former home. And I am especially appreciative to you, Nick, for your reporting.
I share your concern for the future of these brave Hong Kongers. On this side of the Pacific, I wish them well as they stand up for their democracy.
4
Has anyone in the pro-democracy movement actually come up with what needs to happen to end the protests?
You do need to know what you hate about your present circumstances, but having a goal is key, even if you go so far as wanting free elections and an actual justice system, which mainland China has never had.
PRC has bolted that door by imprisoning the leadership that dared to show up last time.
2
I am sitting in Hong Kong airport waiting for a flight back home. I grew up in Hong Kong and have many relatives here. I never thought that PLA rolling into Hong Kong is a possibility but I agree with Mr. Kristof that I see no scenario that either side will back down now. I hope that I am wrong but I fear that a violent crackdown from Beijing is becoming inevitable. I am sympathetic with the young protestors who wants freedom and economic justice. Youth and passion drive changes but the protestors must still ask what they would like to see as an endgame. It is clear what Beijing wants. For the protestors, even if they succeed in pushing back today, the one country, two systems agreement will end in 20 years. Whatever they may gain today will pass in a blink of an eye. It is a fundamental mistake for Hong Kong youths to declare themselves as Hong Kongers. By cutting themselves off completely from many people in China who also yearn for greater freedom and democracy they have set themselves up to be isolated and easily crushed. With Trump in the White House, they are foolish to think that the west will say anything. They should realize that there will be no democracy in Hong Kong without democracy in China.
23
@Peter The "endgame" these protesters are hoping for is to have what was promised in the Basic Law: autonomy and universal suffrage. They have to seize the moment, as you pointed out, before 2047, and hopefully this arrangement is maintained as long until China becomes democratic. That is, the "gap" is reduced. I guess from the Central Government's perspective, they want to reduce the gap, but to be "more like China" by tightening the grip and by infiltration with mainlanders. I think Hong Kong should be more autonomous. It will be to China's advantage. Remember that a few local tycoons made their money by smuggling needed goods to China during the Korean War?
4
No one has ever claimed that Hong Kong was not part of China. Hong Kong's fate was sealed once the lease expired. Then it became a matter of time and sufficient reason for the Chinese government to asset its authority. That it would do so once the legal impediment of the lease ended was clearly foreseeable, as seen by the 1959 occupation of Tibet on arguably tenuous grounds.
It's not likely the violence of Tiananmen will happen in Hong Kong. Xi is too sophisticated for that. He will encourage the protesters to think they've achieved something, there will be a period of relative peace, and then Xi will swoop down quickly and hard just as Modi did in Kashmir. As in Kashmir it will be an overnight fait accompli. What did Pakistan do about it? Nothing, but complain to an international (feckless) tribunal. What will the world do when Hong Kong is taken over? Nothing.
3
Thank you for coming all the way to Hong Kong to show your support and report on our cause and for bringing the dire situation in HK to the attention of many NY Times readers all over the world.
I share your fear of escalating violence and bloody crackdown. If the Chinese troops do ever come in, what’s going to be different this time, I hope, is that we Hong Kongers will truly “be water.”
11
I have friends in Hong Kong and throughout the mainland and pray for their safety and freedom. It's typically the leaders and not the general population that act to undermine public will and impost their own. Lam, puppet of the dictator-for-life, and Xi aim to erode liberty and freedom not found generally in the Middle Kingdom. That's why we have distinct Hong Kongers and Taiwanese. Xi aims to erode their distinctions from his vision of subservient Chinese, defined by me as those who do what they want as good (Communist Party) members of society and mostly ignore government. The leaders best leave hands off the protesters and adhere to long-standing 1997 agreements making HK different, prosperous and free, so as not to create a permanent fifth column inside their boundaries however defined--or better, just cut Hong Kong and Taiwan free forever.
2
Carrie Lam has mishandled the events in Hong Kong. The reason is simple, she does not pay attention to the legitimate demands of her own people but only responds to the wishes of the authorities in Beijing. The authorities in Beijing fear that if they show any leniency to the people in Hong Kong, this might encourage the people in Xinjiang, Tibet or other regions to demand greater autonomy. As other Chinese rules have demonstrated in the past, the use of the Chinese military may become inevitable unless Carrie Lam changes her focus and listens to her own people.
4
xi wants everyone to be Chinese? Like, the Tibetans? The Uighurs? The Taiwanese? and now Hong Kongers? the Chinese communist party has a funny way of showing their desire for inclusiveness.
But the US isn't a whole lot better - the current administration has a funny view of who is a 'real American', and who should go back to where they came from. No surprise that trump isn't speaking out against xi's actions
8
Anyone thinking Xi won't go violent and crush the demonstrators isn't paying attention. I hope I'm wrong for the sake of the protesters.
3
In China as elsewhere, power corrupts and Chinas move toward absolute power is corrupting China absolutely.
1
America will support Hong Kong? Nope. Our leaders don't even support the majority of Americans. We will, however, send thoughts and prayers.
Kudos to Nicholas Kristof for responding to comments, thoughtfully and politely disagreeing or agreeing. I can't think of another example of this enlightened use of a comments section.
I just want to point out something about the violence in the video from which the photo of the policeman pointing a gun at the protester was taken, and the violence of Hong Kong protestors in general: while I do not condone the violence at all, the total amount of rock-throwing, looting, car-burning and destruction in Hong Kong this year is small--tiny--compared to almost any American or European protest in recent times, and this with numbers of Hong Kong protestors exceeding 1 million. More violence and damage occurs every weekend in Paris. Charlottesville, VA, experienced more violence and damage from a handful of white supremacists on one occasion than Hong Kong has experienced this year from millions of protestors. Civil disobedience is not violence.
2
Nicholas, I agree with your assessment in this piece, as I sit here in Taiwan. Everyone here is watching closely as many wonder, if Xi chooses to send in major force on Hong Kong similar to the 1989 Tiananmen outcome, then what or who is next? Xi clearly wants to show his power as you describe. And who – indeed who – in the Western world will come to lend a hand? Brittain with BoJo? The Orange Man back home? I think not, though hopefully I am wrong. Your history in this part of the world is well-known to many of us, so thank you for your thorough and continual coverage – contrary to the push-back from many of these Hong Kong responses.
3
And I remember young protesters putting flowers in the barrels of the guns of the equally young military men in Washington DC I 1967, and the young people in the streets of Prague in 1968 never believing that truth and love of freedom would not persuade the soldiers to put down their weapons.
It never seems to end well.
And yet the fact that there are always people willing and brave enough to stand for their freedom ( and other brave and willing people to write about them) is a triumph and a hope. We need to hear these stories.
Thank you.
4
Your piece is terrifying, especially the last two paragraphs. Yet it feels prescient. The western world hasn't done anything to support these protests, and it's not like it can start a war with China. The fact that Carrie Lam and Xi haven't given in yet, after protests this large and long, to me means they won't be giving in at all.
2
Xi can't allow Hong Kong freedoms or special status. Communism would be threatened though out China and the spark of freedom likely prevail. Xi is aware how the USSR collapsed rapidly when absolute total control is compromised.
Trumps tariffs though painful are also felt in China. If other Western nations joined in to pressure Xi in such a uncompromising way Chinese communism collapses.
1
My version of Truth is, we all need each other
USA needs China
China needs Hong Kong
Hong Kong needs their 50 years as promised by Mainland China
All 'parties' need to back off
Trump, Carrie Lam, Xi Jinping are leading us to WWIII
among other lesser 'leaders'—
2
I worry for the protestors in Hong Kong who just want freedom from the dominance of mainland China.
“The free world will support Hong Kong,” I'd like to think that would happen, but where is the support going to come from?
Each Western country is busy fighting their own battles. Definitely the US wouldn't get involved. Trump is battling with Xi over Trump's trade wars. Fighting for freedom anywhere in the world is way down on Trump's list of concerns.
2
Mr. Kristof:
I always respect what you write, and I know that you write with the power of knowledge and experience, because you have witnessed this kind of thing first-hand back in 1989. I feel so deeply for the Hong Kong people and I pray that this will end well - but as we all know - often things like this do not end well for the people who try to stand up for what is right. We are so fortunate to live in America, and yet there is a chance that we may elect for the second time, someone who cares nothing about what this wonderful country was founded on. That saddens me greatly.
3
I fear for freedom fighters around the world. Things are not going well and I fear ultimately that the situation and destruction of rights and freedom now enjoyed by the people of Hong Kong will be eliminated by the Chinese government. If the protesters truly believe the west will come to their aid they are living in a dream world. The US no longer values promoting democracy around the world. Seared into my memory is a picture of a young man in Aleppo, Syria standing on a pile of tires with his fist raised high in the air, a mark of celebration. I'm sure that young man is dead and his beloved city is a now a pile of rubble and dust. The dreams of the 'Arab Spring' are dust now too. I do not think these protests will end well.
2
Mr. Kristof, you are cheerleading the pointless destruction of the Hong Kong economy!
The only "democracy" Hong Kong has ever experienced was granted by China in recognizing the city as a special administrative district.
A hundred years rule by the light, nearly invisible, touch of a benevolent colonial power did not prepare Hong Kong for democracy. It did, however, provide the stability for enterprising citizens to build a capitalist financial sector that served as the economic front door to China's development.
Now that China is wide open for trade, Hong Kong's financial stature is diminished by mainland cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou. Prolonged instability and destruction will surely drive Hong Kong's financial resources to relocate in stable mainland areas.
Hong Kong's value and importance to China shrinks by the day. Why would China bother to intervene? Why do Western journalists portray rebellion and wanton destruction as a move toward democracy?
@AynRant
Is the kind of "stability" provided by authoritarian governments actually so attractive to capital? I think not. Besides, Hong Kong is relatively stable, protests and all. And even if China is wide open for trade, it is not wide open for capitalism.
As for rebellion, that is what authoritarians call protest or dissent.
As for wanton destruction, please point it out. The tiny, tiny amount of looting and damage caused by millions of non-violent protestors in Hong Kong PALES in comparison to a single weekend in Paris with a couple of thousand Gilets Jaunes, or an afternoon of protests in any European or American city.
As you have made your sympathies clear enough already, I do not hope to sway you with these facts. I feel satisfied to refute your stance for the benefit of other readers.
4
Hong Kong pro-democracy protest is the test of Xi’s inner core - is he a ruthless dictator or a passionate Chinese visionary. He can not hide in the communist parties slogans and oppressive apparatuses, he has to come open and use his moral authority to make Hong Kongers Chinese again. If there is force like Taienmeain Square like approach, the split between Hong Kongers and Chinese people will be permanent - a civilizational disruption like India and Pakistan. I hope, thoughtful and calm minds will prevail and use time as healing mechanism.
With any protest (whether that be for economic, religious, sexual, political freedom or otherwise), it will ONLY succeed if there is a tipping point among the majority that will bend the will of the ruling minority. Simple math.
Two million people seem to have no hope against over a billion people (with a massive police and military structure to quash), but it is NOT about them.
It is about US. (and specifically the U.S.)
WE are the ones that are supporting the oppressors when we vote in 'leaders'' that do nothing in the face of such uprising. (or simple demands to be left alone). WE are the ones supporting the oppressors when we drive across town to buy their imported goods. (bypassing our local economies, businesses and people/jobs)
Look in the mirror.
6
@FunkyIrishman
One subject.
That subject is found in his mirror.
Memories of 6-4 and Tank Man are in westerners' heads, but less so in those of mainland Chinese who have never seen the picture. Whether the PAP come out with guns blazing or not, there is another image that could come to commemorate Hong Kong - remember the Alamo. The government forces are overwhelmingly strong and at some point will prevail, but not win. Hong Kong now, along with Mr. Xi's unforced errors at home and abroad in the current crackdowns, may become a rallying cry in the next decade or two for those wishing to preserve freedom of speech and rule of law elsewhere in the world. "Remember Hong Kong" may become an international image, in Africa, the -stans, Indonesia. I wrote a little more about this at chinareflections.com
Have "foreboding" and "worry" ever accomplished anything?
The Hong Kong protestors possess tremendous political savvy and organizational capability. They recognize that Beijing--and Xi in particular--has a huge public relations problem on its hands. China in turn understands that this conflagration in Hong Kong, if not managed properly, can ignite the seeds of secession throughout China, especially among the Uyghurs and other autonomous groups in China.
The Hong Kong uprising evokes not only Tiananmen, but perhaps even more resonantly, the barricades of the French Revolution.
This is a fight not just between Hong Kong and China but between ideologies--democracy against absolutist government. As another mob scene--at the opening of China's inaugural Costco--amply dramatizes, even Chinese nationalism has its limitations when faced with the allure of high quality, inexpensive Western goods.
Xi, by all accounts a clever man, may soon discover that his lifetime tenure may be fleeting, as he, too, is subject to political infighting and pressures that may eventually unseat him.
3
I can't help but sympathize with the protesters, who are fighting for the freedom that we Americans sometimes took for granted. Yet I fear that without a clear endgame, it'd be a losing cause for the protesters.
Since quite literally their beginning, Hong Kongers have enjoyed freedom. This freedom and their laissez-faire attitude towards economy and business have enabled the area to bloom and prosper as an economic center. The 1997 handover brought a lot of anxieties, but after the handover the majority view the One Country Two Systems is working as it should and life goes on.
However since President Xi took over China, they have gotten a glimpse of what mainland rule have in store for them. Increasing surveillance, censorship, crack down of critics, all of these strike deep against their sense of freedom. As others have pointed out, in 2047 the One Country Two Systems will end anyway, but it seems like Beijing has no qualms about speeding things up (that extradition bill seen as one such attempt).
IMO I don't see Beijing backing down from this. They quite possibly see this as precedent setting. If they let Hong Kong get away with too much, others may follow suit. The people of Hong Kong on the other hand have made clear that they will not stand for any more erosion of whatever freedom they have left.
Every clash brings this confrontation closer to a head. I fear it is only a question of when blood will be shed.
13
Mr. Kristof:
You have lived in China (PRC), speak Mandarin, and have a Chinese wife. You should know better.
First, the PRC is going to assimilate Hong Kong (HK) and Macau, politically, economically, and culturally and absolutely nothing can be done to stop it. The PRC is the legitimate sovereign and is entitled to exercise administrative authority over its dominion. It does not matter whether this happens now or in 28 years, the result will be the same.
Second, the handover agreement of 1984 is a farce and everyone, including you, knows it. China never had any intention whatsoever of allowing political autonomy in HK—NEVER. China was the stronger party when the agreement was negotiated with Great Britain (GB). It was a cynical face saving artifice to allow GB to leave claiming that it was providing for the political rights of the HK people while knowing full well it had neither the economic or military strength nor the political will to enforce it. There is no country in the world that is willing expend blood and treasure to fight China on its home turf to enforce this agreement.
Third, it is the HK tycoons who refuse to build more housing to meet the demand, as Singapore did, that is keeping rents unaffordably high, not the PRC.
Fourth, it is obvious that the HK protestors are using vandalism and challenging civil authority to try to provoke an overreaction by the PRC that would create a public uproar to weaken its authority. That is called terrorism.
You know this.
5
@JTS
Does it occur to you that China may become a full-fledged democracy in twenty-eight years, especially as it is being consumed and overwhelmed by the forces of late capitalism?
What do you think is going to happen in Vietnam, North Korea, and Russia eventually?
1
[cont’d]
Xi Jinping and the CCP politburo know this too. They have almost certainly learned the lessons of Tiananmen 1989 and are going to try hard not to have this imbroglio backfire on them as it did 30 years ago.
I suspect that as long as the uproar in HK doesn’t induce political unrest or undermine the authority of the CCP within the PRC proper (which is their paramount concern.), Mr. Xi will be content to watch from the sidelines and let HK self destruct, driving out business and tourists in so doing. Then when the rubble settles, Mr. Xi will clean up the mess, complete the assimilation, and move on.
@Andrew Shin
No, China will not become democratic, at least for the foreseeable future.
First, the Chinese people living in the PRC are mostly satisfied with the CCP’s performance and do not want to overthrow it. The public approval rating of the CCP in the PRC remains 83-90%, depending on the specific poll. The “China model” appears to be durable and functional.
Second, since China began opening up and modernizing in 1978, there was wishful thinking that as the Chinese people became richer, they would demand democratic reforms and China would move toward democracy. To the chagrin of those who wished for that, including the British and American political establishments, that has not happened. China now boasts the largest middle class and most billionaires in the history of the world and, as yet, there is no clamoring for democracy.
Third, China is a large, diverse country. Factionalism would destroy the unity that made prosperity possible.
Finally, and most importantly, throughout 5k years of continuous Chinese cultural history, there has always been a tradition of authoritarian rule. The individual has always been subservient to the state and there is no tradition of individual rights and freedom as there is in the USA.
The situation in Taiwan and Korea are aberrations. Although these are technically democratic societies, neither democratic system is robust and both have significant problems. Despite being nominally democratic, Singapore in reality is a police state.
The word Chinese is not "tarnished". It was not tarnished a century ago when Western nations and Japan invaded and trashed Beijing. It was not tarnished in WWII when Japan incinerated Nanjing. It was not tarnished as 850 million Chinese people lifted themselves out of extreme poverty, the poverty rate falling from 88 percent in 1981 to 0.7 percent in 2015 (WTO).
A U.S. led by Trump should give caution to claiming that other world leaders and nation sates are 'tarnished'.
17
@john Thanks for reading my column, but I disagree (I do agree, though, that President Trump has tarnished the US image). When I studied Chinese, people in Taiwan and Hong Kong routinely described themselves as 中国人, Chinese people. Now those in Taiwan call themselves Taiwanese, even if they have mainland roots, and those in Hong Kong call themselves Hong Kongers. President Xi may think that he is making China great again, but he is no more accomplishing his mission than President Trump is accomplishing his.
89
@john
PRC stands the chance of becoming "tarnished" by the way it handles this issue in HK.
Many HKers do not feel "attached" in any way to the mainland. They see it for what it is: not all bad, but certainly not what they would want for themselves, their futures.
Is the party stupid enough to try to force them to embrace 'the homeland', when they don't even see it in that way?
China has, of course, been ripped off, by colonial powers in the past -- facts no one can deny. But does that then become an excuse for the dictatorial corralling of all ethnic Chinese within reach (HK, Taiwan) into the "warm fold" of the motherland?
When will the leadership in PRC grow modern in their thinking?
19
@Nicholas Kristof
Trump is democracy working. Hate to say it but it is. Now I am not a Trump fan, but post-Obama there was just too much champagne virtue-signalling, rent a cause, and mock outrage while the rust belt suffering opioid addiction and unemployment, and border towns suffering from illegal immigration and tknowing otherwise. Trump is the backlash those fake virtue signallers deserve.
AND Turmp is the only politician prepared to do something about China, who is widely acknowledged to have broken all the rules on trade, as well as violating human rights.
Please dont make false equivalencies about Trump constrained by democracy and Xi. AThe CIA, however is stepping up here. Joshua Wong has met with their representatives, and this fact should not be kept a secret. It shows the CCP that democracy has its defenders.
4
Even if the protesters remain peaceful the regime will find a way to provoke or fake violence to justify the coming crackdown.
The faint risk of a toothless western response is of far less concern to the party than the spectacle of Chinese seeking democracy spreading inland especially if a recession materially impacts enough mainland Chinese to stir them out of their complacency
7
China's dictator has a very heavy hand - any indication of compromise will be seen as a sign of weakness. Hong Kong's residents might have to settle for the illusion of freedom.
7
Thanks NYT for covering the protest in HK. But I think some Hongkongers here are already expecting a military crackdown. A popular slogan here is "If I burn, you burn with us", especially among those front-line protestors.
15
Where is the free world in all this? There was a time when the oppression of 1.4 billion people - 20% of the world's total - was an issue the leaders of the developed world cared about. Isn't that the reason we fought two World Wars? Where is the support for these protesters? China's rapid economic development is no excuse - democracies like Taiwan do even better. For just a taste of the repression Chinese citizens face, imagine if your government blocked the following websites: youtube, Facebook, Instagram, Wikipedia (all languages) and Gmail.
9
I lived in HK for 18 years, returning to the USA in 2017 as I saw things rapidly deteriorating there. It is sad and infuriating all at once, watching this downward spiral in a place I hold dear. The HK government does not represent the people. And their recent actions have turned much public opinion now against the police, who were previously deeply respected. With the yellow umbrella protests in 2014 and more recently the fury about the dastardly extradition legislation, what has the government done to respond to citizen needs and demands? Nothing. Zero. 5 years of peaceful protests and not an inch of movement by the CY Leung and now Carrie Lam leadership - I do not condone the violence but I understand why the frustrations have escalated. It’s the Mainland Chinese playbook being used in HK. How difficult would it be to withdraw (rather than only suspend) the extradition legislation? And now Beijing is going further pressuring HK companies whose staff peacefully join protests...the CEO of Cathay Pacific Airways was forced to resign last week because of Beijing threats! Booksellers abducted, textbooks revised to remove references to the Tiananmen massacre, extinguishing the teaching of Cantonese, reinterpreting the Basic Law, refusing to let citizens elect their own leader... The “ one country, two systems is on life support.
14
Sir, in supposedly autocratically ruled country, the protesters in Hong Kong have had much more freedom to protest even though some of them became purely acts of vandalism. In a “democratic India” 8million Kashmiris are under a complete lock down and subjected to state terrorism. But somehow world and journalism community have had difficulty in noticing this, for obvious reasons!
“The free world will support Hong Kong.”
It might, if it were led by a United States that stood up to Xi with the moral backing of a free state. America does not have a president who is in the least bit interested in Americans’ freedoms—unless they’re Republicans or heavy donors. And whatever capital he might have had at his disposal to persuade the Chinese president to go lightly on the protestors has dissolved in a tariff and trade cat fight.
I fear that the restlessness in Hong Kong plays right into the hands of Xi on the mainland. He knows that Donald Trump’s xenophobia extends to Asians in general and to Chinese in particular. It’s a nasty card that Xi holds and he could order his military to put down the trouble knowing that America would be nothing more than an impotent bystander.
It’s all setting up for Xi to crush the dissent and annex the former British protectorate. Besides robbing America's cattlemen and farmers of their lucrative markets, Xi is acutely aware that the American president is so profoundly stupid and intellectually untethered that he would end up like an athlete almost naked at the starting gate before a huge audience, an athletic supporter shielding him from further embarrassment.
Xi can afford to wait and then strike when he might. Who’s going to stop him? Russia? America?
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Extrapolate this 2 million person protest to Taiwan, a liberal democracy of 24 million staunchly independent well-educated people who want nothing to do with mainland China. Then multiply it by s factor of 1,000. These good Taiwanese people are middle class with a per capita income 4 times greater than the mainland Chinese. They love their freedoms with a passion that inspires awe. Xi speaks lies when he talks of “reunification”. The Chinese Communists never ruled or governed Taiwan, not for 1 hour in its long history. If you’ve never been unified, how can you be reunified? Communist nonsense. Like Hong Kongers, English is a second language in Taiwan. Taiwan’s people are very close to America and its people. 500,000 visit the U.S. every year. Many Americans visit and work in Taiwan. It would not be good for China to attempt to seize Taiwan by force. That would be the end of the CCP.
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@Bad Panda C'mon .... Taiwan exports 40% of its goods and services to China and Hong Kong. There are well over 1,000,000 Taiwanese living on the mainland. Oh, and Taiwan claims all of Mainland China as its territory as well as all the territory within the 9-dash. It even claims Mongolia which China does not claim. line.https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ROC_Administrative_and_Claims.svg
If the Hong Kongers think for a minute that the Western governments will send aid and stop ChiNazis from crushing them, killing as many as need be, they are fools.
No longer is it just the United States that says "designed in the USA, made in China"
I"ve seen that with Canada, UK, France, Italy... ITALY. Spain, Norway, Sweden, and so on.
These countries will not risk a war over a few million people.
The UN has no power and wont do jack.
And Trump needs China, no matter what he tweets.
No. The only thing that will keep China at bay is either total submission by HK, or the HK getting ahold of major weapons and causing China's "vietnam war"
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I thought Mr. Kristof were better enlightened than E. Nagourney with “In Hong Kong, Protest Photo Evokes Memories of Tiananmen Era”. The policeman was scared witless for his life, having been battered in the chest and on the knee by a mob. Now the NYT is comparing this photo to that of the man staring down a line of tanks? How absurd can you be? Ever thought that the kneeling man was playing to the cameras?
Also in “In Hong Kong, Life Goes On (Despite the Whiff of Tear Gas)” by R. Golman, [“Our lives are ... very normal on weekdays,” said Karen Lau, 22, a university student. “Just last Friday,...the very next day we were facing tear gas and risking our lives in Kwun Tong...”] Risking her life? Where does she think she was? In China? Or the US? The reality is that a sizable minority of the protesters are going to the protest because it is IN, they cannot afford not to for FB, IG and others. Going to the protest is like going to a sport event or a concert.
I have lived in Hong Kong for 18 years now. I am no fan of the CPC. This generation of "Honkongers" have grown up spoiled with a foreign domestic helper at home. We hear deprecating tales of job applicants not showing up for their interviews, tales of parents of newly hired doctors calling the hospital administrators complaining of the hours their sons or daughters were being assigned to.
Now these youths are put on pedestals because they participate in protests of a bill of which they have not even read.– Give me a break.
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@Expat in Hong Kong
It is hard to blame the kids. As you say, they've lived a cloistered pampered life and now they have no economic future, but they don't know the sacrifices made by their grandparents to reach HK and build a life. Their parents have handed the kids a sense of entitlement and 'special status' that the universities have sustained with their Western neo-colonialism in Cantonese.
You could give these kids a vote and a webpage and it wouldn't make any difference. HK is a client state of the PRC and will continue to be so. PRC kids are working 996 and feel lucky to have a job.
@Expat in Hong Kong Careful, your entitlement is seeping out between the lines. 2mn Hong Kongers, an unprecedented share of the population, have repeatedly taken to the streets. They have broad support from the public, middle class to working class. So don't go painting everyone with the same brush just because you've run into a handful of spoiled rich kids hovering in your expat circle.
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@Expat in Hong Kong NYT did make a video of the protesters, a lot of them are even under 18. They think protesting violently is "like GTA", is "a video game", "now in HK we play a real GTA" and in the end a boy says "summer has been fun".
Here is the link:
https://youtu.be/ikJmbuEzf_c
Great piece
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I have visited Hong Kong at least five times over the years and China twice; once when it was still unabashedly Communist in 1982 and more recently in 2011 when it was trying to emerge from the horrible shell it was under for so many decades. Hong Kong under the British was my favorite place to visit in the world and I believe the Chinese on the mainland would like to be like Hong Kong if they could choose to do so.
Let's hope the protesters prevail but I suspect this will all end badly for the HK people if they are looking for support from the current incompetents in power in Great Britain and the US.
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Mr Kristoff made his points elegantly in his article, but I don't think it is right that a journalist be responding to comments by readers.
Hong Kong folks are complex. There was a huge exodus of people and their money prior to the end of British rule but the situation normalized and H stayed elegantly HK. Multiple tensions have built up, however, in the last decade, including rich but boorish mainland Chinese swaggering in the city and multiple attempts by mainland people to clog up the HK healthcare system by having births in HK (so their children could have a precious HK passport).
But let's be clear: HongKong is a 'special administration region' of eh Peoples Republic China. It is not an independent state. Some protesters are naive, thinking that the Central Chinese Government and the people of Hong Kong itself will tolerate violence in one of the principal business centers of the world.
If stuff like this had happened in the US, there would have been rivers of blood a long time ago. I hope HK people can chill out and unite around some reasonable demand before everything spins completely out of control.
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I like the further contributions from Mr. Kristoff. It is helpful.
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The fundamental problem with this round of protest is that the protestors are without leadership. Without leadership, protestors have no coherent set of demands and, therefore, no clear path toward a negotiated settlement. Reporting by the establishment news outlets such as South China Morning Post has argued that Hong Kongers want more say in their one-country, two-systems arrangement while it is clear that majority of the young protestors, as Kristof reports, want a complete separation from China. In addition to this basic split, the protestors are divided among those who want peaceful protest and others who are willing to use violence and do battle with the police. Hopefully, leadership will emerge from the protestors. But, as Kristof warns, the protest is rapidly moving toward loss of lives on one side or another. Either the loss of life will shock the protestors into losing momentum and petering out, or it'll give cover for PLA to march into Hong Kong. I hope it doesn't come to this but who can stop the protestors right now?
@UC Graduate
How do you mean "without leadership"?, I wonder. You mean, perhaps, without a charismatic figure, who may go on to exploit his or her superior position?
Cannot human beings be united in a common struggle, without there being someone there to tell them exactly what to do, and when? Perhaps the image in your mind is vaguely military? It would require a historian to tell us how organized, in terms of leadership, the American, French and Chinese revolutions were, at least in their initial stages.
In point of fact, it might be the case that an *un*united, socially diverse push against Carrie Lam, the ideologically corrupt HK government, a push coming from all sides, might make a more powerful statement in favor of rethinking Hong Kong, and its progress forward. (UC grad here too (<: )
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@An American in Sydney
Every successful political movement is built on one or more organization. They're most typically political organizations, but they have included trade unions, religious institutions, or organizations based on social movements. These organizations create the basis for durable leadership that can represent the interest of political movements. In the case of Hong Kong, for protests to last this long, you would have had one or more organizations with representatives and committees and spokespersons who would give interviews and press conferences (even if out of the country). We've had plenty of dramatic political changes in the last three decades. From Solidarity and Vaclav Havel to Taliban and Ruhollah Khomeini, we're intimately familiar with leadership of impactful political movements. In some ways, social media has made political movements punch way above their real weight by making organizing too easy. Theda Skocpol's "States and Social Revolutions" is helpful in all this--without parties and organizations (and therefore leadership), protests do not change the trajectories of states. Perhaps social media has lowered the barrier to mass protest: Hong Kong protestors can mount huge events but without meaningful organizational capacity, it'll be impossible to generate meaningful impact.
@UC Graduate
I disagree, heartily. HKers are independent thinkers. They can be united in some areas, disagree in others, no? That does not mean they cannot be united in their opposition to Carrie, the bludgeon of PRC hegemony.
It's pretty early days yet; only time will tell, I feel.
All your social-science burbling here proves absolutely nothing. Let's see what evolves, on the HK stage, ok? There may be a new paradigm in the making, I feel.
People wedded to the past have difficulty conceiving of things different from they way they believe things have "always been".
Revolution is always there, to be made.
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How do Hong Kongers fight the premature creeping attempts at central control by mainland China when HK's future autonomy has been promised away anyway? The deal is done and they seem doomed to eventually become fully a part of China.
Through their massive protests, can they convince China to grant HK freedom? Even if the entire free world rallied behind their cause, it is doubtful that China would voluntarily relinquish control.
Perhaps they need to try other types of resistance, such as a general strike, or exodus, or some other coordinated action? It would be risky if they could not remain anonymous.
The protests are a breathtaking statement which MIGHT possibly get through the information firewall and inspire citizens of the mainland. You do have to wonder what the young soldiers massed across the border are thinking of it all.
Hopefully China can address the situation wisely and in a way that preserves lives and nurtures the potential of the vast human capital on the streets.
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The party (CCP) just does not get it. They cannot force human beings, simply because they are ethnically Chinese, to love the homeland 祖國. Many of us have moved on from that sort of thinking: "I know my situation, my prospects, in the society within which I live (HK, Taiwan, Ukraine, Catalonia, etc.). I view PRC, Russia, Spain as not in my best interests. As a member of an 'external minority', I request that my preferences be heard, attended to. It is not for the overbearingly powerful to make decisions for all of us. Rather, they need to show us their humanity. Maturity recognizes the claims of the less strong, the minorities."
When will PRC, Russia become mature, open to diversity, considerate of people who think differently?
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Thank you for your article and coverage on this. I’m certainly no expert on Chinese politics, but it seems to me, sadly, it’s only a mater of time until Xi cracks down on the protesters and it will not be good.
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I cannot tell you how much I appreciate these pieces, Nick. Please keep writing them. That's really all I want to say.
I was in Hong Kong during a prior protest. One day later there was a typhoon. The people of Hong Kong whom I know are warm, kind, brilliant, clever, hard working. They value what we had always valued, until our giant recent misstep: a free press, an independent judiciary, the rule of law, the right to free speech, the right of peaceful protest, the right to elect their own government as called for in the 1997 agreement. It is unthinkable that our own elected executive would care so little about democracy that be would do nothing at all to help resolve the situation to the benefit of Hong Kong. The world will pay a price for that. And Trump and his Republicans must be held accountable. Yes, accountable for this too, on top of everything else.
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My heart is with the protesters though I am afraid they are fighting a losing war. We need to remember that in a mere 28 years the "high degree of autonomy" for Hong Kong comes to a legal end and China can do whatever they want with HK.
The CCP takes the long view and Xi will live - or at least the thinks he will - ten thousand years. In China, not just the emperors, but the autocratic rulers as well always live ten thousand years. Remember Mao shouted "Ten Thousand Years" to the Generalissimo Jiang in Chungking and not long after that people shouted the same to Mao.
I can only hope that the violence from the protesters' side will stop. On the other hand who know whose side the violent people are on. It is a perfect way to place the blame on the protesters and turn the people against their cause.
There are also those who wish the mainland regime will deploy the "armed police". To that, I can only borrow the following: be careful what you wish for because you may get it.
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I have to agree with Mr. Kristof. I just don't see the silver lining. It really saddens me to think that some protesters are relying on the West to have their backs. Trump has no one's back. I hope they are referring to Macron.
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China is unlikely to step in unless the violence gets even worse, which is possible if Lam declares emergency and the protestors react even more violently. And it will be no worse than what is already happening in Kashmir, which most people have no interest in because they are too distant in outlook and values, and the oppressor in this case is the world’s largest democracy.
One has to wonder what the protestors realistically hope to achieve, whether there is just naïveté or it’s wilful naïveté, or whether some protestors have a more realistic objective in mind that is not in HK’s best interests. That is to incite a bloody crackdown on the protestors, destroy HK and drag China down with it. Compared to the alternative scenario of forcing Chinese Govt to make concessions, this second scenario appears much more realistic. In 1989, this is in fact what one of the protest leaders Chai Lin had in mind, that only by creating martyrs out of the students she is leading, will the movement gain more momentum and raise such outcry from the rest of the world that the regime will topple.
A significant fraction of Hongkongers hold foreign passports. In that sense their future need not be bound to that of HK. So even if HK is cut off economically by China and left to to sink, they can move away. That’s possibly a reason why they are more interested in expressing their frustration than thinking about what’s best for HK’s future, which will always be tied to that of China.
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Coming down hard on Hong Kong might score Emperor Xi a few points with his cronies but other forces are at work. How long before he suffers a mysterious "accidental" death or fatal ailment? Chinese emperors only rule so long as they have the "mandate of heaven", and if they fail to provide peace and prosperity, there's always someone waiting in the wings who believes they can. Trump's tariff wars aside, China, through rampant corruption and greed has spent itself deeply into debt; the population is aging; and millions will soon be displaced by automation, having zero safety net. Revolutions occur not when things are at their worse, but when things seemed to be getting inexorably better, and then suddenly take a turn for the worse. Xi has created his "total surveillance society" to handle the inevitable unrest, but when you have nothing to lose, getting a few dings on your "social credit score" is toothless deterrent.
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@stan continople This is a bit of wishful thinking, I am afraid to say. Read 1984 again. Even without the advance surveillance technology, George Orwell credited the CCP as closest to getting a total controlled society.
I share your foreboding, Mr. Kristof, and not only for Hong Kong. You mention the "two million brave Hong Kongers marching to gain rights that are taken for granted in so much of the world;" less and less of the "free world," unfortunately, on an almost daily basis.
Countries that recently seemed to be emerging into the sunshine of constitutionally-guaranteed democracy are seeing those guarantees shredded today. Turkey, Hungary, Russia, Poland, Brazil come immediately to mind, but political respect for the rule of law is coming under varying degrees of pressure in the USA, UK, Italy and several western European nations once deemed "safe" for liberal democracy.
Hong Kong seems to be under the most immediate threat of a violent bloodbath. The insouciance of protesters suggesting that "the free world will support Hong Kong" should scare the daylights out of us on their behalf. In the event of a Chinese crackdown the "free world" will sit on its hands because counter-measures will be seen as too costly to our western comforts.
Perhaps, as George Bernard Shaw noted, "youth is wasted on the young," because the protest leaders have no clue about what may very soon hit them hard.
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@John LeBaron The "free world" did sanction China after the 1989 massacre. They did such a good job they are still punishing China by getting her into the WTO and make them grow so much that they may become obese!
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Does anyone else have a horrible, deep sense of impending doom ? Similar to Europe in the 1930s ? “ there’s something happening here, what it is ain’t exactly clear “.
Be safe, or at least be careful.
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@Phyliss Dalmatian
I didn't know Buffalo Springfield existed in the 1930s. It is amazing the knowledge one learns from Boomers.
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@Sándor
Yes, it’s Boomer Magic. A wide range of knowledge, and to ability to extrapolate and apply it. Cheers.
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If another Tiananmen Square occurs it will be different. 30 years ago China was still internally focused, Today they are a world economy and want very much to continue their growth, They need the EU and U.S. economies to accomplish their goals.
There may be some sort of China intervention but likely it will be a soft approach for propaganda purposes only.
At least that's my hope.
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@cherrylog754 Thanks for reading my column. I agree that China is reluctant to use force, and that it understands that it has much to lose if it intervenes militarily. But remember that the same was true in 1989, and at that time the leadership thought that declaring martial law and bringing in martial law troops would intimidate the protesters. In fact, of course, the protesters humiliated the troops, tensions escalated, and Deng Xiaoping gave the order for troops to open fire on crowds. I fear a somewhat similar scenario in which Beijing eventually (not imminently) sends in the People's Armed Police at the "request" of Carrie Lam, that intervention leads to more clashes, and then at some point the guns come out. There are other possible outcomes, but this is the one I most fear.
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@cherrylog754 One thing for sure, we will not see any tanks rolling down Queen's Road Central in Hong Kong. Shooting people? It is hard to say.
@cherrylog754
Anybody who has been in China (e.g. Kristof) thinks he's an expert on China. But he's not.
What you're right about is this: China today is vastly different from China thirty years ago. But even more important, the protesters in 1989 were protesting against vastly different grievances from what the protesters in HK are protesting against. Neither should be called "pro democracy protests" - that's what Americans have decided to call them.
The Chinese in 1989 were demanding the freedom to pursue more opportunities as the country was opening up to economic progress. The Hong Kongers are furious at China and its economic progress which has overtaken and diminished the international standing of their city under the British rule. They see no future for themselves or for the glory that was Hong Kong. Rather, their city is merely one of other Chinese cities which have surpassed HK.
I share your sense of foreboding. Which part of the Free world will support Hong Kong when the Chinese army cracks down? The United States? We rewarded the Chinese after Tianamen Square, and the current administration will cheer such an authoritarian step. Britain? Boris Johnson will stay silent just to get Brexit through. Germany? France? There will be a lot of talk and no action. I admire these Hong Kongers, but I worry for them too.
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