Mr. Friedman makes some excellent suggestions. And, as much as I dislike Mr. Trump for a long list of reasons, I hope people on both sides of the aisle in America appreciate that just because Trump is unpredictable, narcissistic, thoughtless and seemingly clueless on many things, he is right on some points (such as those Mr. Friedman raises). Thus, while I hope voters choose more wisely in 2020, let's not necessarily cheer too loudly for Trump to fail on this. If he does, no Democrat will be able to do better with the Chinese and blaming Trump for the failure will solve nothing and bring us no value.
3
Very naive. To expect China to stop stealing intellectual property is beyond naive. I have seen first hand how technology is first analyzed and then copied. It’s in their business culture and not likely to change.
13
All his ranting and raving at rallies probably feels good and makes his supporters happy but he has deliberately offended the people and countries who could if they so chose, assist him in his trade war.
But then again he did want America first didn't he?
Now he has what he wanted.
Enjoy!
2
What this "analysis" fails to address. The trade war was started by one man. Xi simply responded in kind to the war started by Trump. rump will never admit he was wrong, about anything. He thinks he can bully Xi like he bullied his illegal immigrant workers at his construction sites and his various sub contractors.
What worked in the shadowy, lawsuit driven world of real estate does not work in international affairs. Xi will not be bullied. And Xi is in a much stronger position, domestically, than Trump.
China is already developing new supply chains for soybeans. It is developing new markets in Africa and Latin America. Because he can take a long view, Xi is able to withstand short term pain much better than the US.
Trump has dug a hole for the US economy. His inexperience and arrogance, fueled by ignorance, has led to this situation. He will not back down. He does not know how to "negotiate", only how to bully.
By thrashing international agreements Trump has put himself in a position where he can no longer bring Xi and China to court to resolve trade issues. Something both Bush and Obama were very successful in doing. Trump is in a corner with no exit.
12
At a news conference yesterday Trump announced that his flip-flopping was his negotiating strategy..."that's how I do it."He has to realize that the world is listening.I can only imagine what the Chinese must be thinking.How can they negotiate with such a person?He flat out tells them that they can't believe anything he says....it's some sort of brilliant strategy.
Some commentators have said that at least Trump recognizes the problem implying that others haven't.This is nonsense.Obama took heat for wanting to leave the middle east and "pivot to Asia"...remember.He and the congress came up with the TPP to begin addressing those problems.Trump tears up the agreement and somehow this shows that he is finally standing up to China?There is talk about not causing the Chinese leaders to"lose face" but this is exactly what Trump is afraid of...losing face.His almost pathological fear of failure makes him exactly the wrong person to be making deals with China.You can only have the win-win situation Friedman hopes for when both players have all their marbles.
7
Nothing focuses the mind like a deadline. Reelection calendar focuses Trump’s mind.
Do you think JFK’s “Let us go to the moon in this decade” would have happened if the engineers were told to take their time?
Do you think fixes to computer applications to fix the Y2K bug would have happened if the clock was not ticking?
I say don’t take six months off. It is now or never.
It is ugly, yes. But as the old mantra had it “Management requires a certain level of irrationality”.
2
Reasonable proposal. Ergo, doomed to fail.
3
Reading is elemental and guess what, you can learn things. Trump, from what I have read and heard, does not read anything. Like for instance, "Destined For War, Can America and China Escape Thucydides Trap?", by G. Allison. Examples of China's ability to build things is spelled out in the book, which uses Sparta and Athens as an analogy to China and America. Like maybe it would be a good idea to have some knowledge about your opponent before starting a trade war, instead of huffing and puffing ignorant twitter statements.
Not only does China hold 27% of U.S. debt, it also possesses a smarter leader than Trump. I am not supporting China, just stating the basic facts. As the book illustrates, to become the leader of China requires a rigorous grooming of proving oneself in both the rural and urban environments as a leader. Trump is out matched. Contrary to what Mr. Friedman says about Trump's expert sources of advice, well, he has none, just sycophants. Trump created this problem and he has no clue how to get out of it.
7
As long as America elects presidents like Trump China will advance globally while America diminishes. It’s happening now.
6
The culture clash is pretty huge. In Asian culture, Xi has an entire nation to answer to. "Face" - pride, credibility, authority - must be maintained for a leader to have the respect of his people. trxmp, on the other hand, answers only to himself. They are both trying to get the same thing, but the stakes are a lot higher for Xi, so he has to dig in. trxmp, the great flip-flopper, can't penetrate that wall. He's going to lose.
1
Expecting Trump to execute a rational strategy toward doing the right thing is a huge fantasy. He has only one agenda, and that revolves around his own ego and his own power.
2
It will take a thoughtful and intellectual president and sane advisers to get us out of this mess. Self inflicted wounds by a small man and his dominions. It is always the approach.
1
Yes Tom, your deal has great possibilities except for at least two things; One, we’re dealing with deeply flawed human beings. Two, Asian Philosophy.
Empires are man-made, and therefore will fail over time. Why? Because every one of them was based on greed & power.
In concept at least, the initial 48 states of the United States tried to do something different. It attempted to put together a country of equality. Take the Bill of Rights. It also projected a Nation under God, even though the individuals of this new nation didn’t all agree on who God is. But, the concept worked in the beginning.
It’s all different now in the United States. We elected a Boy King who still doesn’t know how to read; only Tweet whatever comes to mind at the moment. There was a time when every President at least professed some guidance from a higher power. Trump thinks he’s that higher power.
China and other Asian powers always look to the future for things. Trump reacts while sitting on the John.
What worries me most is that over 40 percent of our nation still supports him. Yikes!!!
6
"Just get it done your own way and tell your people whatever you want. I won’t tweet a word to embarrass you."
That would be something of which Trump is incapable. The first thing he'd do is to brag about how he got China to back down through his policies and "won" the trade war. The world isn't dealing with an American President. It's dealing with an ego without a filter. While what Mr. Friedman puts forth makes sense, The Donald doesn't.
7
Fine. So Trump should suddenly start acting like an adult for the first time in his life. Good luck with that.
I remember that before #45 took office he met with a number of NY Times journalists. You begged him to consider climate change seriously if I recall. How did that work out?
2
How long will it take for conservative voices such as the writer of this piece, to admit that trump is incapable of doing anything wise, or reasoned, or measured, or presidential, or even accidentally not that bad? The idea that he would cool his jets for any period of time in order to achieve an outcome that is beneficial to America is laughable.
3
The entire article was written to push TPP. A trade pack written in secret by multinational lawyers.
Not a chance. Are you forgetting these are the same people that spit on American worker as they moved our jobs to china,mexico and elsewhere?
3
Asking China to end its trade abuses? Thought we had already done that when China was bidding to join the WTO.
1
After a lot of analysis that contains some nice observations, Mr. Friedman finally shows his cards in the end, which is basically to let China do whatever it wants. Has Mr. Friedman learned nothing from the past three years? The Midwest was willing to put a sociopath in the Oval Office in order to get someone to understand the economic suffering inflicted in large part by China. Not only is the status quo on China dangerous for our democracy, but as China pushes into 5G technology and builds naval islands in the South China Sea, it has become a genuine national security threat. Xi Jinping is not Deng Xiaoping or Hu Jintao of old, leaders who balanced party authorirtarianism with economic liberalism to create the Chinese economic miracle. Instead, Xi has been granted dictatorial power in China and is playing on the same ethnic fears against Uighurs and other minorities that Trump is stoking against immigrants and African Americans. Xi is also willing to sacrifice Hong Kong's prosperity in order to crush all dissent. Mr. Friedman's faith-based analysis shows that his considerable intellect is still in hock to the Davos après ski crowd! Trump may unnecessarily make a hash of the US economy in the short run through his impetuous and senseless imposition of tariffs, but the structural rebalancing of our relationship of China will continue regardless of who occupies the White House in 2021. .
1
Well,the only stuff that americans are still able to produce in their own land are WEAPONS.
1
Tom's columns always have the insight to explain what SHOULD happen, but always lack the wisdom required to foretell what will happen.
1
Why should the Chinese trust anything he says? One day he calls the president of China the "enemy", just two days later he calls him a "great leader." Trump claimed his erratic lunacy is a "negotiating style". It's terrible for any rational negotiating; he's completely unreliable. China has done nothing agressive here, they've just responded in kind.
As for previous violations, discussions on that should be done multilaterally through the WTO. At this point there is *no way* that China will accede to any requests made by Trump, unless they're beyond reasonable. And Trump is clearly incapable of reasonable.
1
"So each man is trying to intimidate the other into submission by showing who has the biggest tariff."
"And it partly explains why a lot of Chinese officials look at America today as a dysfunctional mess that elected a crazy man as president and that can’t build anything big and hard anymore because it can’t act together."
"If Trump and Xi can forge a bigger deal right now, God bless them."
What would George Lakoff say, Tom?
Mr Friedman seems to have changed his tune real fast as far as the trade war is concerned. If I remember correctly he seemed quite gung-ho much like Trump was in the initial stages about this being a just trade war and that victory was inevitable. He seems to have equally underestimated the tenacity and the pugnacious nature of the Chinese government. What he is proposing makes as much sense as what the President has been saying . In times like these we need men like Gary Cohn (and Mitt Romney) to solve these vexing issues.
Trump’s trade war has a dirty little secret that Mr Friedman doesn’t understand:. Trump is either pretending to try to destroy China’s economy so they can’t become an equal or better superpower to the USA—or he really is trying to do that. With Trump, he knows his supporters will believe any lie or claim he tweets. For example, he recently said China called him and said they are buckling under his pressure. That didn’t happen except in Trump’s mind. But his supporters faithfully believe it.
Okay, let’s assume he isn’t faking everyone out and really is tough with China for a reason. It’s a delusion on his part that he can keep China from becoming a coequal superpower. And in the process of him trying to do that with his trade war, he’s weakening the USA and our allies by destabilizing the global economy and destroying US farms and businesses, many permanently.
Trump and republicans want us all to accept the trade war pain in the short term as he heroically (in his eyes) confronts the enemy. But but but but but he’s enriching America’s upper crust with trillion$ in domestic & foreign tax cuts that encourage them to invest in China. These Americans are the ones who sent our jobs and factories there in the first place and enabled those dastardly foreigners to invest in larger military budgets! And they’re still doing it.
The trade war isn’t about trade imbalances. It’s a neocon fantasy that they can destroy the commies!
Journalists, wake up! Dig deeper!
1
Trade is a subset of the strategic interests of a Nation, not the other way around.
China is determined to pass the US as the #1 global power. The US can not let this happen
As to trade: China used the trade surplus to built the worlds largest Navy [1]. It militarized the South China Sea. It is suppressing democracy in Hong Kong. And it forced Australia to issue the largest ever peace time order for military equipment to keep the Naval expansion of China in check [2]
A "trade war" is better than a real war. We all know what happened when Germany challenged Britain, build up a Navy. Although limited to 2/3 of the British one, it triggered war.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/29/world/asia/china-navy-aircraft-carrier-pacific.html
[2] https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/02/article/australia-orders-12-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/
Thank you, Mr Friedman. Excellent article. You are able to discuss and analyze Trump - seeing the (mostly) bad and the good - without having your judgement of such a complex topic hijacked by an inner hatred of Trump that takes over the whole article. Your peers writing opinion pieces for NYT should take note; only 1 or 2 others possess this talent.
You’re proposing that our “ juvenile,unstable president” begin to act like a mature, stable president. That’s a fantasy. His very juvenility and instability is what got us here in the first place. It’s either impeach or pray we make it through the next 14 months.
3
“But there are people around Trump who do want to use this trade war to topple Communist China — as if democracy, not massive global chaos, would automatically bloom in its wake.”
Deeply ironic statement coming from Friedman, unrepentant cheerleader for the Iraq War, the greatest foreign policy disaster in a generation, a war with staggering human cost and financial cost, blood and treasure - costs that continue to this day - that Friedman believed would bring democracy to the Middle East by toppling Saddam’s Iraq.
Tom Friedman writes as if he thinks Trump is a rational human being. How quaint.
1
Does Xi announce China's trade policies via tweets on demand? Most mature leaders avoid public posturing regarding matters of great national and international importance. Until now.
Leading by social networking is normal in today's Oval Office. Sadly, media at all levels feast like pigeons on these crumbs of propaganda beginning each morning.
You are a good and bright fellow, Mr. Friedman and deserve applause for your wise advice. The White House reaction: Can you hear the laughter?
We all know Trump is incapable of behaving rationally. All Xi needs to do is be patient, wait out the insanity that these illogical tariffs create, and DT buries himself. Like a football game, POTUS has not only the PRC as an adversary, but also a game clock. DT mistakenly believes he can right the ship at the last minute, a ‘hail Mary’ if you will. It’s worked before for this President it ‘should’ work again. Every economist agrees, if the economy is headed South six months prior to the election that’s the state of mind of the electorate at the poll booths. Xi knows this too. Sit tight, tit for tat till May/June 2020, watch the DJIA give back significant gains, MSM echo recessionary fears, watch Captain Queeg melt down in front of the American Public on a daily basis, then install an adult in the White House, prosecute this crime family in public, and right the ship i.e institute policies that the American people have hungered for- sane gun control laws, multi lateral agreements amongst our allies, revised tax laws that benefit the middle class, revise immigration laws, protect our voting laws, reinstate the rule of law...Xi will come to the table, as the clock ticks down. Both sides prevail and save face.
5
I don't trust a thing that corrupt lunatic says - why should China?
5
When you are good, Mr. Friedman, you can be very very good, but when you are bad, Mr. Friedman, you are horrid. This piece is full of fantasy--nothing you state as desirable has the smallest chance of happening. What we have here is a narcissistic ignoramus facing off against the current head of the latest in over 2 millenia of dynasties, and in such a confrontation, the side with the better grasp of reality and history will prevail.
6
So all Xi has to do is agree to every US demand and all trump has to do is not brag about it. And we all know how reliable the US is in keeping it's word. Think Iran nuclear deal, TPP, Paris climate accord.
23
Trump can't give in to the Chinese because he has been using the Protectionist argument for YEARS. First the Japanese. Now the Chinese. As he has said. Pretty soon it's everybody outside the U.S.
Well who is going to do all this work?
Your average high school drop out?
THE DEPRESSION IS COMING. WORSE than the 1930s because World War II aint around the corner.
2
Tom, you write ..."America today as a dysfunctional mess that elected a crazy man as president and that can’t build anything big and hard anymore because it can’t act together." Well, the Chinese think that because it is true. Between 40 and 50% of the population still support Trump even though he is manifestedly unstable, dishonest, petty and vindictative. However, don't leave out Congress and the billionaires who really rule the planet. With some exceptions (too few), they have continued to ravage the planet, infested governments with corruption, and refused to take any of the big steps necessary to show actual concern for the citizens of their countries. Hey, at least China has a fast train to go with their human rights abuses.
The crisis of climate change is upon us because leaders and billionaires refused to do anything substantive to address it. All the other issues -- violence and guns, inequality, violations of labor laws and decent practices, immigration, health care - whatever the issue is, these leaders have either actively thwarted any progress or sat back far too passively while society and the planet burns.
You want to write columns? Why don't you address a column a week to one of the billionaires who could really do something. Trump can't even read, and his word is worthless. There is no China deal coming. So write to someone who might pay attention.
9
The oddest emanation from the Trump clown car last week was the claim that he had "second thoughts" about the trade war. How does one have a second thought when they've never had a first thought?
4
So exactly how has China hurt U.S. consumers over the last 30 or so years? By supplying inexpensive products which have helped the U.S. standard of living? U.S. consumer purchased Chinese goods , happily, because they supplied product at affordable prices. Oh, the Chinese have taken advantage of US companies by stealing patents. Well ,no ,that was the price paid for doing business in China.
The U.S. doesn't seem to be able to compete wih China so the response is they must have cheated.
5
Great deal you outlined Tom. The US gets everything but bragging rights. And China? What does China get? An end to tariffs? Yes. Except for tomorrow Trump feels like slapping some on. Rights for Huawei to operate 5G in the US? Well, that will take trust and time etc. etc. So the US gets what it wants and China gets nothing. A win-win. Brilliant Tom. You should be Sec. of State. If only Trump can keep his big mouth shut.
7
“the world as we’ve known it for the last four decades is going to be replaced with something much uglier, less prosperous, less stable and less able to meet global challenges”
Putin’s plot, bearing fruit.
2
So many people here are of the opinion that Trump is irrational. I beg to differ. Trump's actions are entirely rational and sensible, from the point of view of Putin. If you step back and review Trump's actions that run counter to the US national interest they share a common theme. It all makes good rational logical sense if Trump is acting as directed by Putin. Was Trump entrapped years ago when he was going bankrupt and was desperate for loans and mysteriously was able to borrow hundreds of millions from Russian oligarchs? Is that what is being hidden in his tax returns, the proof that he is a Russian agent?
4
To discuss Trump as if he were a normal person capable of thoughtful analysis and responsible action is not only an insult to the readers, it is a danger to this nation. Trump is an extreme narcissist whose only rationale is self-promotion at the expense of everyone else. Please, Mr. Friedman - now more than ever, we need journalists that can tell it like it is ..not like they wish it were.
3
“I won’t tweet a word to embarrass you.”
Yes, he will. He governs to his base. He cannot be shown to be adaptable, flexible. It would make him appear weak.
Donald Trump cannot pull back; that signifies rationality and maturity. Prepare for more of this until he is either re-elected or he’s defeated. If it’s the latter, he’ll blow up the economy to spite his victor.
Like the Hobbits in the Shire, we’ll be cleaning up Sauron’s messes for a generation.
5
The main thing to remember is that we have an infantile president who thought he could have a fit and force the nasty boy to hand over his toys.
But Xi isn't a child to be cowed by an infantile hissy-fit, and so our toddler doesn't know what to do.
And my understanding is that China has been gradually moving away from their worst practices - but now that our toddler has publicly picked a fight with them, it's much harder for them to stay on that path.
"While those six months play out, Trump should sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal..."
Haw! I don't think I'll hold my breath.
1
Thanks to Mr. Friedman for offering a solution. His ideas are interesting.
I laughed when I read this suggestion, “I (Trump) won’t tweet a word to embarrass you (for six months).” It would be too much to ask of our President. For even a week. Not fun enough.
1
Excellent proposal....
Sadly, Crazy Trump cannot help himself... and will blow things up since he only knows how to DESTROY.
You are asking Trump to.do the.impossible...not brag about a win, even if is symbolic especially if it were pyhric.
Might we expect Xi to ask Putin to work toward Trump’s defeat in the presidential election next year?
I cannot imagine Donald Trump doing anything this smart.
President Xi’s “ganchau” program (catch up and surpass) will be seriously disturbed if China pursues strong arm tactics. The world is watching and waiting for the 2020 US elections that will remove the grifter-in-chief, Donald Trump.
On the other hand, if as MSNBC is reporting tonight, Trump’s Deutsche Bank’s loans show to have been co-signed by Russian Oligarchs, close to Putin, who knows what Trump is capable of doing to cover up And, what if Brexit crashes the EU?
If the EU survives and Boris Johnson is removed, then Haiwei’s 5G quest for world dominance can and should be contained. So, in the next six months, China will have settled on a solution, because it has to, but Trump may lead us to war somewhere.
China’s “ganchau” program includes a seamless rolled out and well financed PR campaign that has the US TV airwaves awashed with Chinese female actresses in commercials for all conceivable products to normalize China’s image and enable it’s global tech industry takeover. US Ad agencies are making a mint with its generous client, the PRC. What could possibly go wrong?
Trump cannot win the trade war with China. He is an idiot who will not listen to advice, in a struggle with a much wiser, clever opponent who is in it for the very long term, not for headlines, and who has many levers to pull and buttons to push besides tariffs.
3
So, Trump is cruel to immigrants.
Trump is cruel and viscious to women, a letcherous old man
Trump is enriching his family,
Really? 2020 G7 at the Doral and a Putin invite too?
His vile language towards and demeaner to our friends of the world are ghastly.
I am discusted every day by this nincompoop.
We must Vote for dignity and sanity in 2020. A woman, Elizabeth or Kamala.
Since Trump is the polar opposite of Obama, his ideal replacement is his polar opposite. A smart politico who will realign our country with the rest of the planet.
Kindness and intelligence only became out of vogue after he and his minions stepped into the White House.
1
Trump has supposedly been on "vacation" the last few weeks, along with Congress.
If he can't give Twitter a rest during vacation, Mr. Friedman is a fool to think he could stop for six months. That dog don't hunt.
Trump does not understand very much about how the world works. He inherited a family business and his attempts to diversify and grow it by and large crashed and burned. his ability to walk away unscathed are a testament only to his willingness do whatever was needed to protect himself from total financial ruin. Who knows what deals he has done and with whom along the way.
His foray into a trade war will end no differently. He went in ill prepared and quickly got bogged down in a blind alley. The only way out now is to dig out however possible and walk back out. Yes he can tweet victory and his faithful will chant support. But beyond the deplorable faithful everyone will see his blowhard total failure. Any withdrawal on any terms will be a failure for Trump and a win for President Xi. After all, its a zero sum game in Trumpworld. There is no deal to be cut with China. They can afford to wait him out, watch him spin his wheels, watch him claim foul,etc in the certain knowledge that the longer Trump continues down the trade war path the more America's world standing is diminished.
My father used to always say "Don't start a fight unless you know you can win"
Trump probably tried to bribe Xi for some pay to play scheme upon becoming President. Trump is only concerned about his own bank account and nothing more. That's how sociopaths roll. Look who his friends are.
Your remedy is a tall order for Trump. Are you willing to babysit him through it?
1
is it more foolish for Trump to believe that he can threaten and intimidate the Chinese government into submission or for you to believe that he would heed your reasonable suggestions fo compromise? I say its a toss u;.
1
Trump is a narcissist. He will not cooperate with any other country and give the credit to them. Remember “ only I can do it”?
1
The Trump I have come to know is incapable of understanding your solution to toning down this stupid trade debacle. He is self destructing and we are watching it happen.
It has become time to impeach and in fact such an action is long overdue.
2
"We have a pressured Chinese president who is afraid to appear to be kowtowing to any trade demands from the U.S."
No Chinese leader would just accept Trump's demands. Not out of fear of looking weak, but because it is a matter of national pride to them. Accepting his demands without extracting any meaningful concession will be considered a national disgrace, a great lost of face.
Sometimes being unpredictable is a good negotiation tactic. At first, Trump's unpredictability baffled and put the Chinese off balance. But when you're both unpredictable and totally unreliable, that your words don't mean squat, your adversary will see through it and start calling your bluff.
Trump tried backing them into a corner, but in his vainglorious mind, doesn't want to leave them any out. It's total capitulation or nothing. The Chinese seems ready to choose nothing. There are some things money can't buy. For the Chinese, national pride is one of them
3
IMO (for years already) - the US should simply adopt all of China's laws regarding trade, etc., with the US and use them for US trade with them.
Among them:
All branches and subsidiaries of US companies in China must be at least 51% owned by a Chinese partner => All branches and subsidiaries of Chinese companies in the USA must be at least 51% owned by a US partner
All technology must be "transferred".
US products are taxed in China => Chinese products are taxed the same amounts in the USA.
Chinese companies steal US intellectual property (frequently with the aid of the Chinese gov't) with no penalty ==> the US gov't should help US companies "acquire" Chinese technology ..
etc.
What's good for the goose is also good for the gander.
Etc.
4
Mr. Friedman, interesting that you made the comparison of railroads in your this essay. On the LIRR the other day I was bemoaning the shabby station, the old trains, and poor scheduling. Politicians withdrew financial support for public transportation, automakers and oil interests have fought public transportation. It’s a good example of what happens when consensus does not rule. We should have a network of decent public transportation, good for all of us, but we don’t. We should have a sensible trade policy with China but we won’t as long as these two leaders fail to quietly agree on what is best for both of their countries. Frankly, I am not hopeful that they will compromise.
2
Mr. Freidman,
Great article, sound advice, but forget it. Won’t happen. The most stable genius in the oval office has the attention span of a fruit fly. How could he possibly plan something six months in advance?
Let’s hope we can all hang in until November 2020.
Pierre Thériault
8
Does anyone seriously believe that Trump is capable of reading let alone understanding this persuasive column by Mr.Friedman.Trump and his little leaguers are in charge. Not reassuring when complex issues with global implications are involved.
8
Why would China help advance Trump's reelection by agreeing to a temporary truce and subtle changes in their economy? The day after, Trump would slap on even larger tariffs -- and surely they know that.
6
Mr. Friedman's insights and suggestions are eminently sensible. Which is why we should not--and can not--expect them to be considered, much less undertaken, by Donald Trump
5
US will also lose out on some of the most interesting uses of AI-VR-AR in educational contexts. Chinese are way ahead of us. Solving a quadratic equation is the same process in Chinese or English. Difference is they can do the necessary cognitive research that we can't because of privacy laws. Who wins if we don't all collaborate? Unfortunately, I think the US..but then again Republicans and Trump hate education, so it's not surprising they wouldn't know or care.
1
Love your article and solutions...so sensible and balanced.
I hope they are listening to you.
My cynical voice says "If wishes were horses than beggars would ride." But I'll still hope for the best.
Thank you, as always.
1
Mr. Friedman, I appreciate the sentiment but the likelihood of your scenario coming to fruition is remote. The TPP treaty creates exactly the environment needed to channel Chinese ambitions. It is dead. Any hope for its revival is fantasy given the political ennui. Strategically, a failure of Trump’s tactics should ensure his defeat. That, more than anything, is what is desperately needed.
2
I’m sorry but Trump is using anything to stay in the news even to the detriment of the United States and the World.
This is NOT a reality show. Trump has no diplomacy, and has no understanding of other cultures.
4
I usually think Friedman has a pretty good worldview, but on this one he's missed the boat. China is not America and is never going to be America no matter how much we want it to be.
American business went rushing into China seeking cheap labor because American's want cheap products and so business was willing to work on Chinese terms. Now that China has developed skills and technology that competes with us on an equal basis means that we have to become more innovative, not more protectionist. Physician, heal thyself.
2
@JFM. No. American business went running to China so that it could maximize profits and break American labor unions. What exactly is cheap about the prices of stuff made overseas? Sneakers made in China for pennies cost anywhere from 50 to 100 plus bucks here.
8
As usual, Mr. Friedman offers thoughtful and clear analyses and suggestions for making things better. But, for Trump to lower the temperature and have rational long-term or short-term, discussions about anything is not going to happen.
His total consumption with himself and need for worship render him incapable of that.
4
Trump: It's worth it to have a slowing economy because it will help get him out of office next year.
This isn't 2008. Banks are well capitalized, there aren't a lot of bad mortgage loans out there, and we're not going into a debt crisis. What's wrong can be fixed with competent leadership.
A second term of tRump is an existential threat not only to the U.S. but to the world at large, and I'm willing to pay the price necessary to see him defeated in 2020 in order to avoid the long lasting, and possibly permanent, damage he'll do when he doesn't have to worry about getting reelected.
3
@Chris Manjaro
Currently, corporate debt is about twice what it was in 2008. There are likely a fair amount of loans that would be in jeopardy if a recession hit. Plus, the fracking industry has a bunch of debt and no ability to price oil reasonably to cover that debt.
As usual, Friedman hits the nail squarely on its head. Unfortunately, his solution cannot take place because it requires Trump to lift his tariffs without any public acknowledgment by China that it will commensurately change its policies and practices. This will be perceived as Trump backing down and he is incapable of allowing that public perception to exist even if he privately knows it is working. But this certainly is a good start in terms of thinking through to a solution. It would have a lot easier to enact current policy or, for that matter, might have been unnecessary, if the Trans Pacific Partnership had been enacted in the first place.
2
Friedman is wrong.
China gets the same treatment as Japan got 35 years ago when it got arrogant and started publishing books like "The Japan that can say no". In both cases America's elite got worried and took counter measures. TPP was one of the ideas to that end. But already under Obama there were several hugely inflated accusations of Chinese espionage.
TPP might reduce China's export surplus (that doesn't exist anymore anyway) but that it would do nothing to reduce America's trade deficit. On the contrary, it would bind the US to stricter rules that could solidify the deficit. So very likely under Hillary too we would have seen the rude treatment of US allies in order to strengthen America's trade position.
The US lived with Chinese trade practices for ages. Most incidents are not that different from what small companies in the US often experience when dealing with big companies. That they now become an issue is because the US needs an excuse to sanction China.
Japan suffered long term stagnation after the US turned against it and China is determined not to repeat the experience. This drives initiatives like the BRI and the artificial islands in the South Chinese Sea. The problem with Xi's policies is many had the opposite effect of what they aimed to achieve. Instead of securing China's export route through the South Chinese Sea the artificial islands alarmed the US and led to a fierce reaction. And due to Xi's fear of looking weak painful reforms are avoided.
President Trump will never sign the TPP because it started with President Obama.
And at this point, China is trying to figure out if it is better off waiting out the 2020 election or giving Trump what he wants, knowing that another 4 years with him at the helm will assure China of the end of American leadership in the world, opening up new strategic and commercial opportunities, particularly in South America and Africa.
5
Too many Americans -- usually, but not always, Republicans -- think that talking tough to China and to our traditional allies has no downside.
Beyond the immediate political benefit domestically of the Trump rhetoric and theatrics, these self-identified conservatives actually believe that if President Xi does not completely bend to the will of President Trump, the Chinese leader will soften.
The change will be enough, as Republicans see it, that U.S. companies can reap larger profits than they have in the past and larger than if the sledge hammer of tariffs had not been used.
The Republicans know that in the United States, if Trump is not re-elected, the next government will likely be controlled by moderate Democrats. Republicans will not be happy, but they can live with that outcome.
What the Republicans fail to appreciate is that if and when President Xi goes down, the next Chinese government will not be comprised of moderates. The next Chinese leaders will be extreme and, therefore, extremely dangerous.
2
How many decades did the Western World take advantage of China? Suddenly the past becomes the present, but now the situation is reversed, and we don't like being told by China they are a world class player. And the U.S. doesn't like competition. We even moved our powerful automotive industry to China to eliminate competition. We mail airplane wings to China to be assembled on planes, our electronics industry can't mfg its own products, our illustrious cell phone industry basically moved mfg to China, and it goes on and on. Hiding behind stealing intellectual p. rights, and conducting improper trade practices (those that don't conform to what the U.S. says is okay), just doesn't sound like we are hitting on the major issue: the U.S. doesn't like competition. All of this turmoil created by Trump is going to prove to the world that life can continue without being bullied by the U.S. Maybe that is the change that is coming.
4
US transnational's, in their lust for profit at all cost, brought the "bad" deal from China on themselves decades ago (this is not an easy fix because of deep-rooted failures in business ethics). Now they cry wolf. Although China should do better, why should they? The US would do the same to them if they could. Both countries have failed ethically and some significant reflection on business ethics is warranted. The reflection should start with how workers in both countries should be treated.
7
In such a scenario, Trump will look weak. A breakthrough would be Xi's first move which is unlikely. The problem has been decades in the making and neither side will act in the suggested fashion. China's view is far longer than 2020. Soybeans from Brazil, computer chips in China ... The respective pain is tolerable by China, but not by us...
5
Good piece.
Though with reference to the fast train. China can and does build massive projects. Any investment returns though are unnecessary as its still a communist state.
Those huge State Industries, like the State itself, are hardly transparent and that remains a large part of the problem.
It is not simply a trade war between two states, it is in fact a war between a big democratic country and a big communist country. So it may not be as easy to back up as you suggest.
We are blaming Chinese they stole intellectual property, abused trade policy
with USA etc are they convinced or are they realizing it or some way accepting it ?
If not to every action, they will show reaction or May be they will wait until Donald Trump to go.
Or if it is applicable even help him to go.
1
I'd have to disagree. The Republican/Conservative focus on protecting intellectual property is disingenuous. If you curb that practice, it just encourages more outsourcing to China--great for shareholders in the short term, but terrible for local manufacturing and even for the long-term interests of the rich (consumers have to be able to afford your products which they can't do if they're unemployed).
The real problem with China is that it effectively allows American companies to circumvent more stringent American labour and environmental rules. So in effect American companies can't compete with China because they actually have to pay a decent wage and not destroy the environment. What we REALLY need is to insist that any trading partner adhere to the same labour code and environmental regulations before allowing free trade. But of course no one is doing that because American corporations effectively write the trade agreements. But this isn't unheard of, under the Clinton administration Malaysia was given a free trade agreement under the stipulation that it improve labour practices, and that worked brilliantly well for both parties.
2
@Andres -- This is also a good summary of many problems with the TPP as it was presented.
I think we shouldn't take Trump at face value on this. It doesn't seem as if he's launched this trade war in an effort to get a deal. He knows that to get a deal he needs to provide an off ramp that allows China to save face. Instead we see provocations and escalations. So shouldn't we assume he hasn't wanted a deal and he's simply using China as a foil for his election campaign? There isn't a Democrat nominee yet for him to bash. And much as he may try, he can't effectively run against Hillary or Obama anymore since they've largely moved in. And without bashing an opponent, Trump has nothing. So expect this to go on a while.
3
@Tom Licata -- That may be Trump's personal motive. However, there is strong backing for what he is doing from the Cold Warrior crowd, who seek disengagement from China to enable confrontation and conflict with China.
3
We need to look at this trade war in a broader context. China is pursing a long-term economic and political strategy with the goal of underming our relations with trade and military partners. For example, in Israel, China has essentially bought the port of Haifa, and one of Israel's largest food conglomorates. Their aim? To gain influence with one of our most important allies and access Israeli technology. This is not an isolated example. China is using its vast currency reserves - accumulated by years of predatory trade practices - to create a new silk road, building infrastructure all over the world that buys influence. To counter this threat, the US needs to strengthen its relations with its traditional allies and trade partners. This is the opposite of the Trump administration's policy of antagonizing them. We need our partners to know that they can count on us to be a strong and sane leader in a dangerous world.
10
The nation-state and its self-interest is always going to be a threat to the benefits of cooperation that global trade relies on. It's the tragedy of the commons played out on a global scale. It's hard to see this getting better until the US and EU start working together to fight for that open transparent trade talked about in the article. I worry that if nations continue to negotiate from a point of narrow self-interest - as opposed to a more cooperative form of self-interest - then the "great illusion" that nations are better off when we all work together will be lost.
2
Who was it that said, "keep your friends close, and your enemies closer?" Wasn't WWII preceded by turmoil between the world powers? Didn't they retire to their corners and furiously arm themselves?
Mr. Friedman, you should enlighten us on world politics in the 1930's and 1940's.
3
This column elides fundamental reality.
China has developed its “China model” which has worked extremely well over the past 40 years, lifting 800M people out of poverty, creating the largest middle class and the most billionaires in the history of the world. By 2025, China will have a larger middle class than the entire population of the United States. Those are facts, not exaggerations, and speak to the general competence of the CCP and the PRC.
The problem is that the “China model,” upon which China relies for its continued success, is inimical to and fundamentally incompatible with Western values and free market capitalism. The two systems are colliding in a way that can no longer be ignored or shrugged off.
The China model is based upon (1) the well established, and accepted authoritarian tradition of Chinese culture; (2) the “blending” of free market capitalism with state economic planning; (3) the “meritocratic” selection and perceived competence of Chinese “mandarin” ruling class (i.e. the CCP) and the expectation that it will act with beneficence toward its people; and (4) the willingness to challenge and upend the current rules based world order to achieve its objectives.
Because of this, China will NEVER open its markets to foreign competition; entertain the notion of individual rights or freedom or accept the legitimacy of the current rules based world order.
To China, this is a zero sum game which it intends to win on its own terms using its own methods.
21
This column elides fundamental reality.
China has developed its “China model” which has worked extremely well over the past 40 years, lifting 800M people out of poverty, creating the largest middle class and the most billionaires in the history of the world. By 2025, China will have a larger middle class than the entire population of the United States. Those are facts, not exaggerations, and speak to the general competence of the CCP and the PRC.
The problem is that the “China model,” upon which China relies for its continued success, is inimical to and fundamentally incompatible with Western values and free market capitalism. The two systems are colliding in a way that can no longer be ignored or shrugged off.
The China model is based upon (1) the well established, and accepted authoritarian tradition of Chinese culture; (2) the “blending” of free market capitalism with state economic planning; (3) the “meritocratic” selection and perceived competence of Chinese “mandarin” ruling class (i.e. the CCP) and the expectation that it will act with beneficence toward its people; and (4) the willingness to challenge and upend the current rules based world order to achieve its objectives.
Because of this, China will NEVER open its markets to foreign competition; entertain the notion of individual rights or freedom or accept the legitimacy of the current rules based world order.
To China, this is a zero sum game which it intends to win on its own terms using its own methods.
1
You know what we are requesting to China is already delivered thousand times politely and they have been refusing to accept any because they think the US is just a tiger drawn on a paper.
It’s war time, friend. We have only two choices. Win or surrender. Winning path lies on the pavement of backing what Trump is doing fully by all American people.
4
If we clearly show that all American people are behind Trump and Chinese communists still don’t accept our legitimate requests, then all the developed countries in the free world understand intentions of Chinese government and will be behind America voluntarily. Then, Russia cannot be with China, either. Only under such situation or possibility of one, China will have no choice but to surrender.
2
Excellent proposal.
One thing is missing however.
Trumps loudest and most repeated complaint is the trade deficit.
He claims that China is ripping us off because we purchase much more from them than they purchase from us.
There’s a simple reason for this imbalance, which Trump fails to acknowledge or understand; China can produce things cheaper than we can, and the American consumer nearly always goes for the lowest price.
6
I don't know if you noticed, but the trade war was started by Trump and continuously escalated by him. China has responded with some targeted tariffs of their own, but much less severe than Trump's tariffs. Furthermore, it's not clear that Trump has any particular goal that he is negotiating with China - all we know is that he claims that they are stealing from us because of the imbalance in trade amounts - something that China doesn't have direct political control over. So maybe you should direct your instructions to Trump.
4
Nice, but how likely is this to happen?
1
China’s economic model is not that different from the model pursued by other East Asian countries like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. If anything, China’s model is friendlier to the US than the other East Asian countries, as China’s trade surplus has been rapidly shrinking since 2015 while the other East Asian countries kept large trade surpluses even as they became developed countries (https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/03/16/china-may-soon-run-its-first-annual-current-account-deficit-in-decades). The “trade abuses” such as “forcing” technology transfers were also done by every other developing country playing catch-up; in fact, the rules of the WTO that the US agreed to specifically encourage transferring technology to developing countries. China is only being targeted because it is a big country and we don’t like their political aesthetic. This is deeply unfair as in my view Chinese people have an equal right to pursue a decent standard of living as other people in East Asia and around the world.
The only sustainable long-run solution to the trade war is for China to become a fully developed country, at which time it will have similar wages, innovation, and consumer spending to the US and the incentives for trade practices that we view as unfair such as low wages, low IP protection, and low imports will naturally disappear. This is what happened with the other East Asian countries. Anything that creates obstacles to this development process will be counterproductive.
4
HO,
Your points about WTO technology transfers from developed nations to developing nations are correct. The problem is that China is an economic behemoth, not a "developing" country at this point. American, and other countries, shouldn't be required to share their highest technology with China. I haven't heard this goal spoken by anyone in the Trump administration. Fair trade is something to stand up for, though I don't know if Donald j Chaos & Co. are capable of winning that fight.
Blue wave 2020 !
Mislead by his inner circle of stooges, Trump started a trade war with China out of the blue. The reason parties agree to trade is that both parties benefit. When parties block trade, neither party benefits. As Trump blocks trade with China with little verification of the intellectual property claims or other objections which amount to legal disputes. China, as well as the American public, have become victims of Trump’s deranged views of trade economics. There’s no tally of future benefits, defined objectives, what the end will look like, the ultimate strategy, profits or losses, and bogus national security issues. Just massive losses. This is Trump. And he is plainly a rabid character that nobody trusts. So how do expect Xi to find any wisdom or solstice in Friedman’s ramblings? There are be no winners between the US and China, Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative begins to expand China’s influence across the globe, ending in Europe, whereas, Trump wants to build a wall blocking Central and South America access to the US. The differences could not be further. Our best hope is that China maneuvers intelligently and financial forces and powers in the US bring this to the 2020 election without a disastrous recession.
2
When I read that you are proposing that Trump take a 6 month truce during which China can overhaul its worst practices really made my blood run cold. Trump has no self-control, even for one second, and I suspect Xi has less power than we suspect.
Can you please come up with plan B or are we doomed to live out these next 6 months watching Trump drunkenly weave from one side of an issue to another.
4
If only Trump cared about them both winning.
This is about bullying and ego satisfaction.
4
Apple pulling what is arguably the most complex supply in the world out of China because Trump decrees they do so? Impossible. And doing so will wreck one of America’s strongest companies. Counter that with China’s options... with the authority a non democratic country can exercise, it can easily say “don’t buy soybeans, pork, or wheat from the U.S. - buy it elsewhere”. A tad disruptive, but not terribly a complex supply chain to change in a matter of days. Chinese people won’t starve and they will hardly notice. American farmers will. Yeah, Mr. Trump... trade wars are easy to win. NOT!
4
While I like reading the Times, there comes a time that President Trump should get at least some credit from this institution for taking a hardline on China. For years, China has ripped off our country with presidents of BOTH parties looking the other way as jobs throughout the country disappeared. Perhaps the biggest mistake the US made was letting China into the WTO in the first place without fundamental reforms. However, the question now has become what do we do about it, and the answer isn't the truce Mr. Friedman recommends. Make no mistake, a truce will not change China's behavior towards issues of intellectual property theft and allowing American companies a level field to compete. The problem needs to be addressed now and won't go away simply by saying let's drop the tariffs, contrary to Mr. Friedman's hypothesis. While perhaps Mr. Trump's tariffs aren't the best way to approach the problem, it's a problem that needs confronting and tariffs are finally giving us at least some leverage with the Chinese. Perhaps there is no solution with the current leadership in China, but we should at least try something. We lose billions and billions of dollars annually in intellectual property theft. Despite the political toll Mr. Trump may take should the current situation result in a full-blown trade war, it's admirable that he has the resolve to take on China and finally defend the American worker after decades of neglect. It's about time that he get recognition for something.
3
I’m worried about defense spending. I’m not alone! Senator Warren wants to audit the pentagon. Who’s going to challenge Chinese military buildup on the islands or mandatory spending for the PLA? There is a benefit to having a military when the Earth gets warmer and refugees are displaced. War anyone? Cooperation is going to prevent wars and help diffuse clean technologies. Whether Trump pays or not.
1
Tom,
The 6 month "truce" is a brilliant idea but it would be a super mistake for the U.S. to use the truce period to go for the TPP and to line up our European Union allies as well. This would be seen as the highest order of disingenuous behavior by China and all other of our trade partners.
Now what we could do during the truce is to line up technologies and services that we could export to China or jointly develop that would benefit both our economies.
China and the U.S. are about the same in area. The difference is in population and in income per person. China's needs to continue to continue to increase the standard of living for its people and we have a similar need but we are just far ahead of China.
China and the U.S. both need to develop a very low cost non-fossil source of electrical energy. They are working on the problem and hopefully we are. They also could use a much more efficient logistics system that would permit them to move material from their producers to the population.
Both the U.S. and China would benefit from superconducting Maglev transport invented by the late Drs. James Powell and Gordon Danby simply because it is powerful enough to lift heavy freight trucks or cargo vans and freight contains in roll-on, roll-off carriers and move the freight as well as passengers at 300 mph, in all weather.
SC Maglev can also be used to cheaply launch solar satellites to beam power to Earth 24/7 that can be wholesaled to grid systems at very low cost.
Tom, normally you are the voice of reasoned optimism, but this column would make even Pollyanna snicker.
First, XI knows he has the upper hand. Unlike the US, XI (and China) can wait out this conflict until the 2020 elections and probably will. With markets nervous, Trump is also backtracking and showing weakness.
Second, you are suggesting that Trump could think strategically or even tactically. Could you please share your evidence.
Third, have Trump sign the TPP? An agreement produced by Barack Obama. Really? I think not.
Sorry Tom, this bit of wishful thinking will never see the light of day.
9
We can't win the trade war
But DT thinks he still can.
Too much of his self worth is vested in it
So he won't let up.
Until irreversible damage is done.
We elected him.
Our gift to the world,
As in Make America Great Again.
1
Mr. Friedman realizing as it were, what President Trump had set out to accomplish. Mr. Trump is taking on the world’s foremost economic colossus. The rising Chinese power had been ignored by too many of past presidents; by the two Bushes, Clinton and Obama. US Congress full of provincial pettiness doesn't have the larger vision. Their neglect benefited ease of China’s expansion. As the United State was stripped, de-industrialized by China, taking away US wealth and industrial might. And dismantling the lives of millions of Americans. And China still takes American technological and scientific knowhow at will. But this heartbreaking siphoning of American prosperity and power has been stopped by President Trump. Still, US trains and educates thousands of Chinese nationals in our universities. Although, US ─ China trade is the key political issue─ but unfortunately, I see no Democratic Candidates remotely capable of dealing with it. The Democratic Candidates seem incapable of talking about trade with China or American power and presence in the world. China has voracious appetite to secure resources everywhere across the globe. China has vastly benefited from Clinton-Obama style multi-lateral deals and world organizations, like the World Trade Organization and United Nations. EU and other bodies. President Trump is also reviving America’s sense of identity as a nation state, withdrawing from damaging multilateral deals ─placing American national interest first.
3
Building Big and Hard things is difficult in the USA because of EPA rules, the endangered species act, environmental documentation and government interference all of which China doesn't have to deal with.
4
...and which is why Chinese cities are among the most polluted on Earth. We're not winning a regulatory race to the bottom against China -- but would we ever want to?!
6
Great well reasoned opinion on the China and American relationship. It’s a shame it is longer than a tweet so our current president will not read it. I wonder if congress will take the time.
2
I did not know the TPP was still on the table, but I am tentatively all for it. I always thought that the ideas it embraced, such as consistent environmental laws for participating countries was just what we have been lacking in globalization. My only frustration about the TPP was that I never encountered what I felt was a solid, 3rd party analysis of how strong this part of the agreement was. Did the TPP require participating countries to prove they were actually ENFORCING their regulations? Did it allow for other signatories to challenge this and perform audits? Did it have clear consequences for a country that fails to meet the standards? I probably did not look hard enough to find such an analysis, if anyone knows of one, I'd love a comment with a citation.
1
Friedman seems to believe that Americans want an equitable solution. Personally, I am for any solution that humiliates Trump, come what may.
1
China has the upper hand now. U.S. markets are vulnerable to either the yuan's valuation or moves in bond trading - both of which Chinese leadership directly controls, and here's betting Trump will cave each time China makes a threatening move.
A compromised president is now betting his political and actual life on macroeconomic events he cannot control. If Xi also believes this, look for China to win this trade war - big- and offer face savings concessions.
Mr. Friedman assumes both President Trump and President Xi could be reasoned to see the larger picture: the relationship between the US and China is NOT a zero-sum game. He is wrong and they are not right. Not mentally right. They are not rational, to be sure. At least not now. They are not even on the same page. And Friedman is trying to read between the lines.
1
I am not sure Xi Jinping has control over the whole country of China so that he can make things happen the way Mr. Friedman suggests. I think alot of provinces and cities and towns are to some extent at least local feifdoms, and they will not be changed in six months or maybe even six years. I believe prior U.S. administrations have asked for the changes that Mr. Friedman suggests and China has still not made the changes. That is how we got where we are.
Mr. Friedman seems to assume Trump is capable of rational decision making, which frankly at this point in his presidency makes me question Mr. Friedman’s rationality.
9
Remember "Peace is at hand"? A tantalizing prospect released just weeks before the Presidential Election.
So, as a campaign strategy, the Emperor leads the World into a Tariff-fueled recession, then declares victory against China by negotiating the same trade relationship we had before he imposed the tariffs. Maybe a trade pact that puts the U.S. in an even worse position than before the tariffs. It doesn't matter what the agreement says, he just has to declare victory...In late September/early October 2020.
Just weeks before the election.
You heard it here, second.
Friedman's prescription is just what China was hoping for: a six month hiatus during which the Chinese talk a good game and make zero actual reforms. All the while the clock ticks and we draw ever nearer to our 2020 presidential election. At that point, Trump will be desperate enough to sign anything, so China wins. Or Trump doesn't cave, there is a stock market crash and recession, the Democrats win the White House (and then do exactly what they did under Obama and Clinton to combat unfair trade practices), so China wins again. Brilliant!
5
The mention of Hong Kong ignores a major issue there. Many in China have said they believe the US is playing a major role in the unrest. They blame this on the US, as an attack on them.
I don't know if Xi himself believes that, but he is dealing with plenty of Chinese around him who believe it. That is something about which Chinese are hypersensitive. If some believe it, Xi must treat it with care. He can't be seen as allowing that.
In that way, events in Hong Kong could be a major impediment for the Chinese side to deal with the US on anything.
Likewise the discussion of intellectual property and the TPP ignores major issues concerning the aggressive expansion of US claims for intellectual property. The US has extended those rights, and important parties in the US are engaged in patent wars to patent every possibility in order to preclude competition.
While China has certainly disregarded intellectual property right, the US has created real problems there too. Start with patents on medicines, on which much of the world is now ignoring US claims.
The TPP was written by US insiders of the patent law abuses. It is not good for the US, and China is going to resist that.
This column proposes a solution that ignores these two major problems, as if they don't exist.
5
@Mark Thomason
They think we are stirring things up in HK because that is what the Chinesse government is telling them.
Nice words although will not work with China. China will continue to lie and cheat unless there is a public airing of theirs and our decisions. President Trump should stop being so bombastic and Xi Jinping needs to be honest.
3
Tom, you should have given this advice to Trump privately. Now he can't take it if he wanted to.
2
Much much to rational.
Trump will never sign the TPP. Waiting for the Trump pivot in a range of topics proves he cannot change. Mercurial or unhinged, genius or sap Trump will tweet trade to his own detriment.
Distilled to essentials, why would Xi help Trump's reelection when running out the clock holds more promise for him?
1
@texsun
Except TPP is so unpopular you couldn't get it through congress if you had them under the guns of the entire 82nd Airborne.
Trump would rather blow up the US economy in its entirety than acknowledge Obama’s TPP had merit. And it would take a massive brain hemorrhage and paralysis to keep Trump from tweeting for 6 months.
Other than that, Thomas has some great ideas.
3
This is such a good article - contains practical, feasible, specific executable checklist steps. Either Trump does this now or his successor will do it.
3
Friedman's diagnosis of the problems between the and China are mostly correct. His prescriptions are partially so.
Yes, China steals intellectual property, and even plays games with its currency. But the US has tolerated that because the corporate profits that accrue to offshoring jobs to China have been huge.
Yes, China holds a sizeable chunk of our debt. But, it's enough so that if anything happens to it, both the US -and- China suffer. This is I owe you $1 billion, I have a problem, I owe you $ trillion, you have a problem.
Friedman, like so many commentators, gives obligatory lip service to global warming, then ignores it. The US China trade relationship worsens it greatly. We and they both must produce less and consume less.
Friedman completely ignores the fact that China is one-party dictatorship with a continuing pattern of gross human rights violations against its own people (e.g. Uighurs). I guess for him, trade is more important than democracy or human rights.
The Trans Pacific Partnership, which Friedman proposes the US join, is dead, good riddance. And, even if it wasn't, Trump has long made clear that he prefers bilateral deals to multilateral deals.
The late P. W. Botha, who first apartheid, then assisted in dismantling it, said "we must adapt or die". Part of our big adaptation must be to drastically diminish our huge trade with China, due to its adverse ecological, economic, and political effects. Friedman's proposed tinkering is insufficient.
3
Here's a better idea, one that will benefit not only the millionaires and billionaires in China and the United States, but their working people: Let Trump and Xi pass an executive order allowing workers in both countries - from every industry and farm sector - to organize a single labor union. Come the revolution!
1
I value your thoughts but please stop writing articles in which you put words in the mouths of national leaders. It always sound stilted and inauthentic every time you resort to this, and it seems to be a stylistic tic on your part.
1
Sorry but it's bad faith punditry to do the "on the one hand this and on the other hand that" parity between Trump and anything or anyone, even Prez for life Xi.
Fact is, Trump isn't comparable to anything because the second Tom tries, his neo-liberal underwear shows through (actually neon-liberal because it glows like a Broadway marque).
[Side note: for all the derision of Xi as paramount leader for "life", those who get China see the designation as an asterisk noting the Party's resolve to root corruption from its upper ranks. Naming Xi El Jefe underscores the gravity of the CCP's efforts to end corruption and send a message that corrupt officials can't outlast Xi.
The "prez for life" on Xi's office door also fixes the larger issue of a supreme leader to replace Deng Xiaoping as Mao's successor. With powerful factions in play, a Chinese ayatollah is the Sino version of Last Man Standing. The CCP has 70+ million members and needs one public face to represent it. Naming Xi for life signaled to other factions to cool it or be purged. Xi is now bigger than Mao. Trump isn't in the same league.]
China's best and final offer is to buy more American stuff to even things out. The intellectual theft stuff is specious racism that Chinese are inscrutable and conniving as Fu Manchu. And no, Xi isn't going to enshrine a trade agreement in their Constitution any more than we are.
China wants a deal. Trump wants to be re-elected.
That's not the same thing, Tom.
9
No way Trump has the sensibility nor discipline to execute against this sound advice. And three cultural factors make in IMO quite likely that US will lose this trade-war. (1) Saving Face makes it prohibitive for Xi to be seen as conceding / making concessions. (2) The Long View - Chinese government is thinking in 10, 50, 100 year timeframes - they can easily outwait the 2020 election and then course-correct in a way that saves face. (3) National Aspiration - China is looking to (and, eventually WILL) be the next world superpower - so whatever weakens the US is in their long-term strategic interest -- even if it comes at short-term / individual cost. That's why there is a high speed train between Beijing and Shanghai in the first place and we will be still discussing building one between Los Angeles and San Francisco 20 years from now.
6
It might be a better approach to limit trade measures to imports affected by the disputed practices and a substantiated amount of damage to US industries while at the same time negotiating better WTO rules on international trade.
Please, forget Trump. He is a lame duck. This issue will be around for the next President to handle. Remain firm. Do not back down. China's dishonesty in international trade will not go away. China now has a middle class of 400 million people. They have *high expectations* of increasing standards of living and personal comfort. Xi will be gone if there is a sustained decrease in their fortunes. And Xi knows it!! The West holds the cards in this race. Xi sits on a wobbly throne. These are not the Chinese who ate grass during famines in its past. They are now as intolerant of personal discomfort as the rest of us.
5
they’re not some dumpling restaurant in a Trump Tower that can be bullied into paying more rent. LOL.
2
Mr. Friedman, I'm sorry, but talk about an Ivory Tower!
I yield to no one in my contempt for Mr. Trump. But for the first time in his pathetic life, he is trying to do the right thing (for the wrong reasons of course), albeit with the incompetence for which he's been famous for 50 years.
We need separation from China. Right now. Because right now China is our mortal enemy and the greatest threat to democracy since Hitler.
Why?
Well, let's see:
They've blatantly stolen our intellectual property.
They stir up nationalism even more than Trump.
They've imprisoned a million of their own citizens, innocent of any crime except being Turkic Muslims... and the other 20 million people in Xinjiang are living in an open-air prison, under surveillance beyond Orwell's worst nightmares.
They have regressed from an oligarchy run by the Communist Party to an autocracy with a dictator for life, Emperor Xi.
I agree that any war with China; trade, cold or hot, will set back the world for decades. This is preferable to not standing up to a country that has brought hundreds of millions out of poverty, but thinks that along with their history this entitles them to world domination.
Dan Kravitz
7
In February 2017, in an interview with O'Reilly, Trump was praising Putin. O’Reilly pressed on, telling the president that “Putin is a killer.”
Trump quickly responded, comparing Putin's reputation for extrajudicial killings with the United States'.
“There are a lot of killers. We have a lot of killers,” Trump said. “Well, you think our country is so innocent?”
The Friedman Unit (6 months) returns.
1
Trump not tweeting about China for 6 months?! That’s like a lifetime jail sentence for Trump.
Friedman says perfect is not on the menu, so better will have to do.
How about also keeping the plan realistic?
3
It may take an expert to assess what Xi can and can't do given his temperament and his constraints, but anyone can see that Trump is utterly incapable of what you propose. A promise of no embarrassing tweets? Are you kidding? He'd certainly make the promise, but he'd break it within a few days, or even a few hours after any input from Bolton or Hannity. All you have to see is his roller-coaster commentary on any foreign or domestic issue or leader. Trump will say anything and then imagine he's made it all better the next day with a comment about how smart Xi is. That won't play any better in China than it does in France or Canada or Germany or the Bronx or anywhere else except North Korea.
I hope there's a positive solution somewhere, somehow, but your prescription is incompatible with this patient.
1
Step back for 6 months? That's dumb and just plays right into China's strategy of delay and promise but don't follow through. Xi will either find a way to make a fair deal with the US with the approval of his party or the tariffs will continue and businesses will continue to leave for other non-tariffed countries which will achieve the same goal ultimately. There is absolutely zero reason for the US to do business with China on unfair terms considered their openly stated long term goal is to surpass us.
3
Nice to have have a simple, two step process...
- Do a deal on the QT
- Work with allies
Too bad the two steps are totally antithetical to Trump's MO
Mr Friedman, your adults have brought us the huge deficit with China and patent thefts and...may be a "juvenile" or new approach might put us back on a better trajectory than the one chosen by our previous "adult" presidents !
1
Terrible idea. Give China a pass, with no verification, just long enough to stabilize the economy so Trump has the best chance to be reelected? Not going to happen. Trump made his bed so he needs to sleep in it, bedbugs and all. He needs to impose his will or admit complete defeat. The election will take care of itself.
1
so, all he has to do is negotiate in good faith and then stay off twitter for 6 months. yeah. that will work.
1
Too late
The damage is done
Russia wins
2
I find myself at an impasse, on one hand I would love to see the total and complete failure of Trumps China negotiation so we can be rid of this dark chapter in American history after the next election. On the other hand I would very much enjoy to see China have to compromise, open their markets and be held to account for their abuses in Technology theft sooner rather than later.
But the sad reality is Xi even with the the strongest hand of any Chinese leader in decades does have to deal with both internal politics and saving face in the eyes of the Chinese people, where no politician can be seen kowtowing to the Americans no less with little or nothing to show for it.
The reality of this moment is without the Trans-Pacific agreement and the strength of the European Union negotiating with the United States as a single entity we will not get the changes we desire but Trump associates the agreement with Obama so he will never sign it and for working with the EU, again our fearless leader does not play well with others.
So the best we can hope for is an agreement in a little over 2 years working in tandem with countries that have similar concerns. We will also have to embrace long term policy goals and have a renaissance in the science engineering and technology sectors or all negotiations with China will go for naught.
1
‘Embrace Long term policy goals in USA.’
You must be kidding.
A polity, in which electioneering starts the day, immediately after a President or a Senator takes oath of office, for re-election, with no vision for the country, and where business executives worry about next quarter’s bottom line, in order to enhance their stock price, cannot plan for long term. Rennaisance in science, engineering and Technology will not suffice, when China already has a standing army of scientists, engineers and cyberspace specialists, and money to funds them for long term.
I wouldn't count on it. There is something Trump wants out of this that Xi won't give him. They have been at this for 3 years and keep spinning wheels. The problem for us is, China has bought property and created relationships world wide especially in Africa. If he China can get the crops they get from us growing in Africa, they will produce them far more cheaply than we can and the farm business supply chain moves and Trump has left them holding the bag. Trump has a little more than a year left on his term; Xi can either wait, or move their ag imports elsewhere. Trump really doesn't get this concept and the farmers better get angry quickly.
Mr. Friedman's your article is great! However you missed out in suggesting Trump making deals in APAC area countries and with EU allies to then sit down with China and sort out current trade war.
China not only controls pretty much all of the natural resources of Africa, with One Belt One Road project president Xi Jinping already proof China is moving much faster then US, and secured alliances and Trade deals with all EU, African, Asian, Middle Eastern and Oceania countries. As of today, I'm afraid US are three steps behind in making any preferred deals with any country in APAC area or EU countries, leave alone Africa and Middle East. China has already heavily invested in building infrastructures to support the plan and I doubt anyone will turn his back on China today,
1
We have to face China eventually. We may lose but that will be due to all the past 'experts' giving their 'expert' opinions.
China is everything the US is accused of being but isn't. They are a rapacious imperial power. They are colonialists. They are supremacists. They have laws designed to harm minorities.
China cannot be trusted.
And climate change? Free trade has been the biggest driver, after population, to climate change. America is the greatest emitter but look at why: we are global policemen. We send (or sent) help where it was needed. We created massive amounts of greenhouse gases developing life saving drugs.
A collapse in trade with China, and a return to a non-consumerist society, might be the only thing that can mitigate some of the effects of climate change.
3
Your claims about climate change are so absurd that they call the rest into question.
With you to a point, but when I read "While those six months play out, Trump should sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal …" I admit I wondered what you've been smoking. Of course Trump should/should have signed the TPP, but there is no way he will do it. He cannot ever admit that Mr. Obama did anything right or good, so right there he could not abide the implication that there might have been something of value out of the last administration.
3
The goal isn’t to end a trade war, because this is much bigger than just a trade war.
The fundamental issue is that China has developed into an authoritarian rival challenging the U.S. militarily and diplomatically across the globe. This has been enabled directly by the U.S. running large trade deficits with China.
This is why the U.S. should disengage its economy from China as rapidly as possible, perhaps over the course of five years or so. U.S. companies should shift their supply lines to other low wage countries that are friendly to the U.S., and in limited cases, back to the U.S. itself. This process must be accelerated with tariffs.
The biggest danger at this point isn’t that Trump won’t strike a deal with China, it’s that Trump WILL strike a deal with China.
4
I was with you until your last sentence. How do get to a "rational, long-term discussion" when our stable genius proves every day that he is neither rational or forward thinking.
3
More wise advice for Trump and many around him.
I think we'll have to wait for a Biden administration in 2021, though.
@Elizabeth Miller
And, another wise move, I think, would be a second term for Treasury Secretary Geithner.
If anyone is capable of restoring trust in the US-China relationship, then Geithner could.
Too bad his name is so toxic among the Main Streeters he worked so hard to save - and I'm talking to most everyone reading this comment.
This hyperconsumerism Tf worries about is a contributor to warming deforestation overfishing extinction etc. So why mourn this ‘prosperity’? And this thing about debt. That’s their problem. They own paper. They better be careful. Lol
2
Thomas, didn't you catch any of the G7? Why would Xi, or any leader for that matter, believe anything that comes out of this man's mind or mouth.
15
Down with mad emperor Xi. Down with tin-horn dictator Trump. Problem solved.
1
No. Donald needs to step back and retrospect if has one which I doubt. China has 1600 years of wisdom. In contrast, Donald has not learned an iota of wisdom since he was sworn to presidency.
4
You can't have it both ways - unilaterally decide on the actions required by China to meet US demands AND be in the TPP. That last letter stands for Partnership, so you would need to negotiate what is acceptable in trade to all countries in the TPP.
Some nations may have different views on the matter, of trade, particularly on the way the US unfairly competes in global markets For example, tbe tens of billions handed out to subsidise US farmers or the tariffs placed on sugar.
2
Trump has demonstrated over and over again that he cannot be trusted. He changes his mind day to day, sometimes minute to minute. Lying is as natural for him as breathing. He makes promises and then denies ever doing so, even when millions heard him. Everyone who trusts Trump, from wives to business associates to political allies, eventually gets stabbed in the back when it suits him. Forget about Trump and Xi making a deal. There can be no perfect, better, or even bad deal without trust.
2
I don't pretend to be an economic or trade expert, but I was around when the Motorola/Iridium project started. I said at the time that it was pure idiocy to give China access to high level rocket and telecom technology. With it, they would eat our lunch. And so they did. This is why capitalism needs to be closely governed. This is why Boeing and Apple need to DIVERSIFY with only a fraction of their business going to China.
10
Interesting suggestion, Tom. And how far do you think Trump will go with his nonsense? As far as it takes him to destroy the world economy.
Goes to show that Mom & Pop CEOs have no understanding of macro and microeconomics.
SAD!
Sorry, Thomas, but we don't have six months.
2
Tom, why do your peace plans always revolve around waiting 6 months for things to magically change? You supported war in Iraq for two and a half years by constantly pushing back withdrawal 6 months at a time (there's actually a wikipedia article about the "Friedman Unit" because of this). Now you say the same for the trade war. Just like the war in Iraq, the US administration's stated reasoning is baloney and everyone knows it; they have no concrete goals and no exit plan. Six month will change nothing. End this pointless war now, now, now.
3
Trump can't step back for six minutes let alone six months.
5
Trump blinked, he showed his hand when he claimed to have had a non existent phone call with the Chinese about trade, rope a dope by Xi, sadly the great deal maker will learn nothing because he already knows everything.
2
"[A] lot of Chinese officials look at America today as a dysfunctional mess that elected a crazy man as president and that can’t build anything big and hard anymore because it can’t act together."
Guess what? They're right!
16
A sound and rational approach that would move the world forward.
And if you think Trump will take that advice I would ask you to please share the name of your dispensary with the rest of us.
1
New article by Thomas Friedman:
"How the Planet Earth can heat 10 degrees and still keep the Polar Ice Caps frozen!"
Not everything is a win-win, Tommy, and optimism is still ideology.
1
News flash, the academic "brain drain" from China and other Asian countries is the ONLY reason America's academic institutions are so prestigious and put out such great work. The majority of STEM doctorates in Ivy League institutions are Asian immigrants. We take credit for the hard work and creativity of these Chinese scientists, and now we are itching to send them back? Pure stupidity. Apparently, keeping scientific breakthroughs a secret from other countries is more important to America than actually finding solutions faster by collaborating on a global level. We deserve to be embarrassed as a country at this point.
11
What a waste of newsprint. Pres Xi is under little or no pressure to make any sort of deal. Pres Trump has the 2020 election and the actual economic consequences of his folly to deal with. Xi, for good reason, won’t trust Trump and will just wait it out.
1
One big problem: Trump changes his mind hourly.
Another big related problem: Trump can't be trusted.
A third big problem: Trump is a mentally unstable cry baby.
As such, whatever seems to be a practical solution to the self-inflicted and dangerous trade conundrum that Trump has created and masterfully mismanaged is negated by these facts.
3
@Ronald B. Duke
It wasn’t Obama who created the trade imbalance with China but the typical American consumer in cahoots with corporate America. Why aren’t you blaming Nixon, Kissinger and ping pong diplomacy?
1
’why aren’t you blaming Nixon, Kissinger, and ping pong diplomacy.’
Because, our society has a short term memory syndrome! Problems tend to be solved with stock market analogy; every transaction is like a random walk, up or down by 1/8 cent, so remembering historical facts is not important.
Nixon and Kissinger went to China to achieve ‘Peace with Honor’ in Vietnam, as well as to use Chinese against the Soviets. There was a long term cost associated with that action!
Cheap Chinese imports allowed US Corporations to make exorbitant profits without being a producer and kept our hyper consumerism satisfied. Chinese production meant to satisfy our demand also shifted the carbon burden onto Chinese, and kept our inflation under control. They didn’t come to us, we went to them. Our greedy corporate Execs were too willing to part with their technology to make quick offshore profits. They could easily have said no to Chinese demands of technology transfer. Now, we are complaining because we feel that we have lost competitive edge. If we connect all the dots from that Nixon’s visit, we may discover that Cold War was not won on the cheap!
Thomas Friedman doesn't know economics nor China. He should talk to Paul Krugman on the first and to Nicholas Kristof on the second.
For most of the past 2200 years China has been a socioeconomic political educational demographic diplomatic military scientific and technological superpower.
Xi Jinping is the first Chinese leader since Mao Zedong whose thoughts are deemed worthy of study by members of Chinese Communist Party. Xi is the first Chinese ' core leader' since Deng Xiaoping. By refusing to name a successor in China's term limited collective leadership model Xi is claiming the Mandate of Heaven right to rule for life like the last emperor Puyi.
Xi Jinping is experienced competent temperate secure smart wise and tough. The exact opposite of Trump. Trump couldn't handle Kim Jong Un and is beholden to Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin.
Economics is not a science. Economists aren't scientists. There are too many variables and unknowns to craft the double-blind experimental controlled tests that provide predictable and repeatable results that are the essence of science.
Americans love goods from commodities to high end technologies made by cheap Chinese labor. Americans want to sell goods and services to the Chinese.
Despite having the nominal #2 economy, on a per capita basis China ranks #80 near Bulgaria/ Dominican Republic. China is an aging and shrinking nation with a below replacement level birthrate and a massive male gender imbalance. China holds US debt
5
Tom, you sure are an optimist, even when all points to a dead end, as Trump is a brutus ignoramus with a closed mind, sealed into a malevolous and unhinged self-promotion...at our expense; we are watching a dangerous spiral into oblivion...with the distinct pleasure of a decadent republican party, unable or unwilling to stand up to a vicious self-centered jester, unscrupulous to no end. Can't you see he is a disgrace for these United States, even a laughingstock to this upside-down world??
"Trump proves to China that all he wants are results he can brag about — not a revolution in Beijing." Trump will call it a "WIN" that he will brag about no matter if we lose "BIGLY". Neither Xi nor we can trust what comes out of his mouth, knowing that it will change tomorrow, and maybe change back and forth thereafter. And Tom, if you think that Trump will return to the Pacific Partnership created by Obama, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you - cheap.
3
Will we ever get the Republicans to admit that ripping up the TPP was a singularly stupid move. Of course, Hilary Clinton was against it too in 2016! And that boggles the mind to think that in this country we are so against intellectual thought that we will take or accept anything that comes from the "gut." Emotionally, the majority in this country could not accept that TPP would have enabled exactly what Trump desires, except that we would have had partners to back us up.
2
I thought you have made great friends with bannon and Navarro to start a new China bashing political correctness. What happened?
1
do not understand the premise of this racist article. America is successful because of African Americans only. That the U.S was formed in 1619???
I understand the importance and contributions of African Americans to America.
Seems like a convenient opinionated re-write of history.
"I won’t tweet a word to embarrass you. "
LOL .
Trump cannot do that and Xi knows it so forget your plan...
Tom, do you really think he's listening to anything you say? You're part of the "failing New York Times."
You might as well dialogue with the patients in a mental institution about the origins of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
I went to the best schools 50 years ago. I was at the top of my law enforcement and intelligence professions. I'm smarter than this sociopath and the lackeys that sit in his cabinet.
Give it a rest, and start calling him out for what he is!
1
you are too sane for an insane president. your solution is in the best interest of America but a let down for Trump. he will never do it.
Thomas Friedman, please run for president!
Trump is ignorant about China History, World History and American History ... he only understands the moment .. this ain't gonna end well for America. China will wait Trump out til the 2020 elections,, then Trump will cave and claim victory. Just like he did with Trump Air and Trump Casinos ,, " I made a great deal for me ."
163
@Frank
Trump’s idea of making money is to inherit it and not paying one’s obligations.
34
I think the global warming point is important. You can't solve a problem like that in the middle of a war. But if everyone were rational we wouldn't be here in the first place.
Friedman is right, these two belligerent children need a timeout.
After that, rename the TTP the Trump PP and get him to sign, get EU buy-in, then begin negotiating confidently with China to establish global trade norms and rules.
President Warren will have a plan for a win-win, verifiable agreement. She may even have Friedman help write it.
"a lot of Chinese officials look at America today as a dysfunctional mess that elected a crazy man as president and that can’t build anything big and hard anymore because it can’t act together."
China is a single nation, many Americans still argue that we are and should remain 50 independent states in a federal republic.
America is doomed unless we can fix our democracy: get rid of the Electoral College, reform the Senate, eliminate gerrymandering, reverse Citizen United.
As we are unlikely to do those things, have your grandchildren learn Mandarin.
1
Dear Mr. Friedman: ... or not. First of all the trade dispute with China has already become ugly. Secondly, everything trump has touched since his inauguration has become ugly. So, let's just assume that he will remain consistent with the only aspect of his presidency, which is that he will continue with policies that do not benefit the citizens of the United States ... and further undermine his reelection chances. Seems a lot more important than finding a way out of this self-created mess.
I enjoy reading Friedman's columns these days. I like how he frames the problem are being caused by both Trump and Xi. Surely Trump is acting like a huge embarrassment, but the reasons he is acting that way are valid.
This nonsense about the Chinese needing to "save face" (and would otherwise agree to American terms privately) is pure fantasy. China refuses to acquiesce to American terms simply because contrary to Trump's claims, the trade war is not destroying the Chinese economy. A slowdown to 6% growth is certainly lower than before, but still enormous in absolute terms.
1
Friedman would like to declare a six-month truce while Trump—Trump, of all people—rallies nearly everyone else in the world to force China into a “trade pact built around American standards and values.” Yeah, sure. Why not?
Or maybe the 12 biggest Pacific economies and our European Union allies should wait until the presidential election to “let the American people decide” who represents our standards and values, and negotiate with China then. I’m sure Mitch McConnell would understand.
This would be a stellar plan if one of these two men (and you know which) had a rational bone in his body, but as of late he's been low on bones: the racist bone, the backbone, the bones he keeps throwing to farmers.
If I were Jinping, there's no way I would trust a quiet Trump truce for 6 months. There's only one way that ends, and it's with the president overstating his gains and understating his losses very publicly, very falsely, very often, and at the expense of the Chinese leadership.
Rational, mature doesn't do it for Trump not enough oomph! and attention. But, you are forgetting the all important non-starters: no leaders trust Trump; no one will take his tweet capabilities away. Trump thrives on attention, him keeping a promise not to spin info into nasty, petty attacks is magical thinking.
1
China should have never been admitted to the WTO in 2001. I assume corporate greed got in the way, and we decided we'll figure it out later. Well, "later" has arrived, and we have a big mess on our hands. The most dominant country in the world cannot not be a dictatorship. Say what you will about the USA, but at least we have freedom of speech, the press, religion, and an election coming up next year, where we can throw the bums out. China has none of that, and their leader and party are in charge forever.
You sell the Chinese people incredibly short by saying that massive chaos would erupt with the end of CCP rule. They have a large number of well educated, thoughtful people who could take the reigns of the administrative behemoth the CCP has in place, and steer themselves toward greater prosperity without having to live in a police state.
Lowest common denominator is two overgrown boys, fighting over whose you know what is bigger - that is the essence of this issue.
This would require trump to put his ego on the back burner. It seems the odds of that happening are slim to none.
False equivalence in the new York Times.
Surprise!
There is no trade WAR. The United States launched a unilateral economic attack on the Chinese economy. The Chinese have responded with remarkable restraint.
As to expecting policy from this administration, has Mr. Friedman not being paying attention for the last 2 years?
1
I vote for you dude. Now all that has to happen is to get someone to read it to trump and then convince him that it's his brilliant idea.
Trump staying off talking about China on Twitter for six months??!!
Trump showing an interest in the TPP and getting our (former) allies to take him seriously or trust him again??!!
Friedman says is willing to settle for "better" instead of "perfect" but in fact he is asking for the impossible. Not going to happen.
America's senselessly antagonistic attitude toward China has never been a winning strategy. It is clear that Trump started this trade war for machismo reasons so he could look good beating the "yellow peril" villain and he is now getting rightfully counterpunched in the face for his attempts to bully on the world stage. I can't honestly fault China for its retaliation. Collaboration and coexistence — not wars — are always the better options.
1
I remember someone saying: "It's easy to win trade wars". Doesn't look so easy now, does it, Donald?
114
@Cassandra
But the point isn't to win. It is to look like he won. And with Trump followers, it is very easy.
Trump is not a President. He is a performer. He is acting. On TV it is easy to win trade wars, as long as Trump is writing the script. And his entire life and Presidency is a script. It is not real. So in his world, and that of his followers, he wins. It is all so easy.
10
Sensible and sane as (predictably) are these comments about (and proffered solutions for), as Friedman writes, an immensely dangerous situation, a part of me - that I hope is not entirely partisan outrage - responds, "But I don't want this appalling person to dig out successfully of the dangerous mess he has created!" Even with the probably-gigantic damage done to hundreds of millions, probably for many many years, it would be preferable for us all to reap the terrible consequences of putting such an abysmally unsuited person in a position of such great influence - rather than offering him a face-saving way out. It is more important ultimately that he be defeated, and sooner rather than later go down in history as a disaster (which he surely will eventually). Sometimes the price simply must be paid; only then can learning and new starts begin.
120
@THWright:Sir: To you I would say dystopia,is not an option.
2
China is a threat to global peace and prosperity. I disagree with Trump on so many things, but this is one area when I at least applaud his willingness to do something. China has run rampant for years and through countless US administrations, all the while manipulating their currency, blocking us at the UN, partnering with Iran and Syria, stealing our intellectual property, running our manufacturing into the group and we've done next to nothing about it.
42
@John
"to do something."
John, doing the wrong thing is "doing something."
But, wrong.
25
@John It is America that is a threat to global peace and prosperity. 330 million plus 500 million in the EU makes 830 million. China alone has more people on the internet than the entire combined population of the US and EU. Never mind China is growing at 6% and the US and EU combined are growing at .5%. China is the main supplier to Africa and Asia around 4 billion people. It's the demographics stupid.
30
@John
I agree with you John,,
3
China is not about to stop its trade policies which include government sponsored and government led theft of intellectual property. Xi couldn't put a halt to it even if he tried and besides he likes the results. Xi is riding the tiger of Chinese xenophobia he ordered whipped up. He also has fostered and propagandized the widespread Chinese belief in their manifest destiny, Han racial supremacy. Trump cannot give up on his white nationalism since he would lose too much of his power base and Xi likewise. Not much room for a deal there. We are indeed headed to a more chaotic dangerous world.
58
From its very beginning Trump's approach to China could hardly have been more ham fisted or guaranteed to fail. To put one's negotiating partner in the position of losing face in order to reach a deal is a non starter with any sovereign - especially so with the sovereign of a people for whom face has always represented the highest value and who traditionally consider the loss of it the highest possible disgrace upon one ancestors - the only remedy for which was prompt suicide.
89
Great points. I do think you have your cultures mixed up a bit. Suicide when humiliated by loss of face or defeat is more likely to happen in Japan. However, mutual respect, face, and the slow building of trust through relationship is a typical part of Chinese leadership. By Chinese standards, Trump is amazingly rude, untrustworthy and incompetent.
32
@Doug
If this has a comedic side to this, I can just imagine XI pacing and pulling his hair out wondering how to handle Trump. I don't think there's a playbook on how to handle a crazy president. Given how different our two cultures are, would XI even have an understanding of Trump's craziness?
Maybe he can study the behavior of the heads of states in the summit last weekend. It's all so unbelievable that the world has to plan their behavior to avoid making Trump mad.
2
Someday we should take another look at the excesses of intellectual property. IP is supposed to increase innovation, but often what it really does is to lock in established advantages, by preventing the whole world from using modern knowledge in its economic interest. Excessive IP imposes an economy of scarcity onto technologies of abundance. Patents for medicines don't scale well to all of humanity, and have already caused many millions of unnecessary deaths (largely ignored because the rich can buy their way out).
Trump doesn't want to be restrained by reciprocal rules that are good for all parties. That's the problem in a nutshell.
Trump's entire agenda both domestically and internationally has been too monetize the Presidency for personal gain. The rule of law, reciprocal or otherwise stands in his way.
4
Trump can’t accomplish anything in his so-called trade wars because he can’t think through, let alone maintain, any position.
In a matter of days, Trump went from pushed for tariffs, to holding off until after the holidays, to perhaps wanting an even stiffer position than he’d proposed. Likewise, in a matter of days, Trump went from describing Xi as a respected leader, to perhaps the biggest enemy of America, to someone with whom he was getting along nicely. Trump is too all over the place to get anywhere.
4
"Trump was right to insist that the U.S.-China trading relationship had to change."...No. The Obama Administration handed Trump the China solution with TPP. It is ironic how few people were actually paying attention.
28
During the summer of 1999 I was reading "The Lexus and the Olive Tree" while pool lounging on weekends at the JW Marriott Admiralty, Hong Kong, China, when I was stationed there. Am I am trying to connect that understanding to this article. Stepping back and letting heads clear before action is definitely better. But an article about the economic trade war with China without mention of the the societal conflicts that are taking place in each country leaves your recommendations somewhat unrealistic. Yes, these require something more like a book to explain. Or a series of articles (like you have done before). The problem remains, as you identify, "policy via Twitter" is really bad. It's time to stop participating in recommending how this administration can fix it and propose an 18 month head clearing period so that we can fix our side of this craziness.
3
This analysis is so beyond ridiculous and just sophomoric. What happened to the Tom Friedman who used to offer trenchant insights.
Never mind the acting out on both sides; it is absolutely *necessary* for the U.S. to hold firm to a trade outcome where China partly encodes their promises in a rule of law in order to catalyze change to maintain a stable world order that avoids war in the long-term. No matter the pressures on Xi, China must draw some firewall between it's government bureaucracy and it's businesses (even government-owned enterprises). All companies in China effectively operate as agents of the state and the stealing of technologies and spying on customers is both required and rewarded. There is no boundary between companies, on the one hand, and the state, on the other hand. In a somewhat perverse way, we are all sympathetic to the CCP's need for absolute control over social movement and the economy in order for them to remain in power.
If, however, China does not agree to end these practices through the law, China will drift away from the global trading order, no matter whether there is a deal. So this notion of a compromise where China informally promises will appear to the Chinese as a U.S. capitulation and yet another relationship that they may manipulate. The problem with the analysis of U.S. - China trade friction by the elite is that they presume the existence of a stable trading and political relationship between China and the U.S.
4
Congress. The press can weigh in, as it must and should. But it is the Congress that is there to check the Executive. Congress must act.
5
President Xi Jinping is only about seven years younger than Trump but he knows for certain that he will remain president of China for as long as he wants to.Trump has the clock working against him-at best he has until Nov 2020and that may be a stretch.His trade negotiators want a sudden change in Chinese trading behavior.That will not happen.A truce which Mr.Friedman suggests would be a start but then there is very little time left for this administration to make a difference.Obama was on the right path when he advocated for TPP.Trump has dug himself very deep into a trade war hole-he should stop digging .American business cannot function if they must plan with nothing more than the tariff”tweet” of the day to guide them.
5
"This has [not] become a really bad play." We are writing our own really bad play, and it is almost impossible for any rational person to understand the human obtuseness behind the self-destruction.
6
Brilliant piece by Friedman. There are however two major problems with his suggestions. The first is the idea that Trump not 'gloat tweet' that he won the negotiation if they struck such a deal. If he has demonstrated anything, it is a complete lack of control over his ego. Secondly, the suggestion that Trump revive TPP would be tantamount to admitting that Obama was correct. That will just not happen. Friedman's ideas would of course work if we were dealing with a sensible adult in the Oval Office. We are not.
7
It is almost painful to read about proposed solutions that spring from the mind of a rational, intelligent and knowledgeable person. Thank you Tom. But it hurts, almost physically hurts, to know that relations with our biggest treading partner and the health of the global economy are subject to the whim of a crazy man with a Twitter addiction.
21
Mr. Friedman, how can Xi sign an agreement with Donald Trump, a man who backs out of every agreement he ever signed, be it with a small contractor or a spouse? China has all of the leverage and Trump has none; China can bide their time until 2020.
The odds of Trump catching an inside-straight again and remaining POTUS are as small as his conscience.
21
The thing I don’t understand is you seem to be describing the situation as being on the edge of a cliff, while you supported the China policy of the White House to some extent in some of your previous articles. Either I totally misread, or have a terrible memory. I remember you saying, well, someone should stand up to China. But, this doesn’t matter.
I think when it comes to its strategic interests, the US should stop pretending it has more power than it actually has. The US needs its allies, and the US needs to work with its adversaries. It’s like the fly having the appearance of being much weaker than the lion, but if the fly wants, it can take away the restless sleep of the lion by buzzing around the lion’s ears all night. Such is the soft power of many of the US adversaries and allies alike, which shouldn’t be underestimated. China in this case, is much more powerful than my metaphorical fly. But even if it was much less powerful, even if all it could do was seriously damage the American agricultural industry, then that would still take away sleep from an American president who counts on all those farmers to vote for him again in the next elections.
3
There you go again...
Thinking rationally...tsk.
I might give you that China is acting rationally - if corruptly - in asserting their authoritarian interests against the U.S. and other foreign/corporate powers.
However, Individual-1 is just winging it, backed by a chorus of self-interested posers. It is hard to see anything coherent, much less rational, coming out of that crew.
It is pretty clear that the U.S. farmers are starting to recognize that they have lost a generation of effort to develop the Chinese market, and it likely won't come back. The only questions now are: who else takes that kind of fundamental damage, and how bad a recession are we all in for because of it?
8
@Beyond Concerned This is far bigger and more consequential then short-term loses to U.S. farmers. Unless the U.S. succeeds in gaining Chinese agreement to encode modern business practices in law, the zero sum attitude in China will continue in trade and expand to the political relationship. China already has become much more militarily aggressive in the South and East China Seas, a practice which may be connected with the same motivations for their unethical and confiscatory trade practices. The U.S. has more bargaining leverage than Mr. Friedman or NYT readers would lead us to believe. China's economy is hurting to a greater extent than that of the U.S. and and the leadership in China is not immune from public pressure. The U.S. needs to hang on and stay focused in order to achieve a long-term stable world order. Doing so is absolutely essential.
Trump is the only onw who is constantly talking about China, Xi, and trade dispute in the news media. We never see Xi Jinping said anything about US, Trump, and trade war in the news media. This seems that China doesn't care about trade dispute any more. Xi Jinping knows that he will survive to the next term regardless what the trade war outcome will be. But Trump, on the other hand, will not continue to his second term if he fails to deliver. The odds is against us to reach a good deal with China.
3
Wait, did you say or imply Putin's Hump "ignoring the advice of his experts"?
What experts and experts at what? Last I remember none of his economic honcho advisors has any degree or training in economics but are merely TV talking heads, like their boss being a TV reality show host.
And we should welcome whatever that is "barreling down on us." His supporters want a disruptor so they should welcome that. As for the rest of us if whatever that is "barreling down on us" means Putin's Hump gets the boot next year we should welcome that too.
Take the long view, Mr. Friedman. Whatever trade issue and global issues can and will be solved the shorter a period that Hump gets to sleep in the White House the better.
3
@Notmypresident
While it's hard to believe, Peter Navarro actually has a PhD in economics from Harvard.
Mr. Friedman’s ideas require that the two principals involved are reasonable and sensible people. That’s just not the case here with Trump and Xi. Both of them want it all. Both of them want a check in the W column.
4
A cliff, indeed. You could call the movie "Nebulous Without A Cause". There's another spoke in this wheel, though, which Americans seem to overlook on a routine basis - The rest of the world isn't going to play ball with the US on this one.
This unilateral approach has annoyed a lot of people. It's not doing us foreigners any favors at all. In the Asia/Australia region, we're being put in an impossible position. Our trade with China is important. While we may be equally annoyed with China's ham-fisted cyberwar, etc., legitimate business is being put at risk while nothing at all is happening about the cyberwar, trade crime, etc.
The US is also drastically underestimating China's response to external pressure from anyone, let alone the US. The many humiliations of the past are still sore points with the Chinese. No Chinese leader, let alone the nation as a whole, will cave in to this type of external pressure. Trump is pushing all the wrong buttons.
The Chinese would rather get on with business, but the way this has been done means they can only respond negatively. They have better things to do with their time than watch Twitter for the latest US digression from an actual deal, too.
America's ability to credibly negotiate is being severely undermined. The world has had far more than enough of this infantile approach to global issues, and the easy way to make that rather obvious point is to go right on doing business with China.
10
Not going to happen because ego. Each wants to be seen as the winner at the expense of the other.
3
No one benefits from tariffs. American companies have a harder time selling their products to China. Tariffs on Chinese-made products will ultimately pass the costs along to consumers, resulting in higher prices, reduced consumer spending, slower growth for companies, and recession. Trump gets to brag that he’s “tough” and “winning,” but that victory is at the world’s expense.
2
@Mark Siegel
Actually, if trade is diversified to another nation, the effect of the tariff is simply to change suppliers, assuming similar prices. Tariffs become a longer term diversionary tactic.
1
@Mark Siegel To the environment recession is Good. Change the darn paradigm. Housing starts? Think clearcutting. Now does it seem so great??? No.
Who owns Huawei? Until this question is answered no one can negotiate with China.
Huawei is underbidding every company in an effort to build national telecommunications infrastructure. In a recent bid, Huawei offered to build a telecommunications system for less than its closest competitor, Ericsson, charged for the equipment. Obviously, making a profit is not its concern. What is?
Huawei claims it is owned by its employees. Very well, show me a statement which demonstrates how much equity an employee has in the company and what that stake is worth. Tell me who sits on the board of directors? Can you provide me with the minutes of their meetings? If these things don't exist, then Huawei is the Chinese government. Nothing else makes sense.
So in reality; China is bidding to build our telecommunications infrastructure? Why would we not in our national interest forbid such a clear violation of the rules of international commerce and foreign relations? What possible reason could the Chinese government have for taking a financial loss to build our infrastructure if not to pursue its own national interests and its own security?
Trump is right, this battle should have been fought decades ago. But since it wasn't the time has come to fight it now. China should not undermine our economy, national security, and intellectual property protection while pursuing financial indebtedness for the 3rd world without consequences.
At least Trump fights. Godspeed Donald.
6
@jkemp
Can't the United States just refrain from purchasing Huawei technology? Also, wouldn't the TPP have been an excellent mechanism to fight China's transgressions?
1
@jkemp
I agree with your question "who owns Huawei" and why that matters.
Then you say "this battle should have been fought decades ago" and that "At least Trump fights". This is worth repeating from another poster:
"The Obama Administration handed Trump the China solution with TPP. It is ironic how few people were actually paying attention."
1
@jkemp
"Why would we not in our national interest forbid such a clear violation of the rules of international commerce and foreign relations?"
So why don't we build it ourselves, even if that costs more? That would have required the infrastructure spending that Trump promised us, and could have done if not for the inane tax cuts and his buddies enacted.
1
Remember Kissinger's careful, private negotiations and confidence building that led to Nixon's trip to open China. Now think of Trump's skill at negotiation. After you pick yourself up off the floor from laughing, pray that we make it to January 2021 without too much more damage. Kudos to Friedman as usual.
25
I personally support a trade divorce with China, preferring long term gain to short term pain. Diversification is the way to strength in trade, and China never intends to be fair. "Fair" is not a concept that the PRC really understands. And balanced trade is not a desirable concept for them. 4 to 1 , in favor of China, is better. But I think Trump will sell the U.S. out for any deal that looks like he is a winner (and later fails because the Chinese don't live up to their part of the bargain). These are the same Chinese people that the Hong Kongers are rioting about. And we are supposed to trust them?
4
@bullone Trust is a two way street. Given Trump's propensity to flip and flop by way of a tweet, who could trust him to live to any agreement-and be fair.
The Chinese, Japanese and Europeans know that Trump will not get another term, if he does not pull off a trade-war win quick. However, that is to their benefit. A new President might have his/her laser focus elsewhere.
We all know that we have a manufacturing and worker appreciation issue. I am just not sure that we agree on how to approach it. Clearly, we need to get our own house in order, before we have the economic soundness to challenge trade practices.
Companies within the US are hiring on a contract basis with no benefits at an alarming rate. How can we blame that on China and Mexico?
2
@Dr. Girl
Totally disagree. If Warren is the candidate,Trump will win states.
Trump's tweeting "clearly prompted the Chinese to remind the U.S. president that they’re not some dumpling restaurant in a Trump Tower that can be bullied into paying more rent". I get the point, but the choice of words seems to border on an ethnic caricature.
5
"Ignoring the advice of his experts"
I have to take exception to that. I've seen Peter Navarro interviewed numerous times, incl. last Sunday. Not only does Navarro agree with Trump's approach, he's the prime architect. This is the guy Trump sends in front of the cameras to defend his policies. There are reports he and Steve Mnuchin have had shouting matches, however.
One of the biggest mistakes Trump is making with his approach to China is in Asian culture saving face is everything. Here I agree with Tom Friedman that the inflammatory rhetoric is counterproductive. Trump is putting Xi in a position making it almost impossible to reach a deal if he wants to keep his job.
4
@Mark McIntyre
Saving face is their problem, not ours. I support a breakup of China / U.S. trade.
Have you thought about your suggestion’s unintended consequences. It will lead to bankruptcy of many department stores, as well as a lot of $ Store, with nothing to sell. Thus sending a high proportion of American consumers into depression. In addition, the whole supply chain will shut down. For our consumer driven economy, this is recipe for a massive recession.
Well it never hurts to dream and apparently, Mr. Friedman just had a whopper! Pass the smelling salts, please.
None of this is going to happen. No way. Can't be done. Trump has driven the US economy head on into a Chinese barricade. This is a slow motion crash, where we break apart a bit more each day.
China and the US are each other's customers. More to the point, the rest of the world are customers and suppliers to both China and the US. This trade war has engulfed the entire planet. It's dragging the world's economy down.
Now, business is about relationships. Agreements are about trust. How can anyone or anything have a relationship with Trump? He throws people away like disposable paper towels. He chastises and insults today and then praises the next and then hurls insults a day later. He lies constantly. His words mean nothing. It is not possible to enter into high level negotiations with such a person.
China understands that. They will wait him out. China is 5000 years old. They think in terms of decades, not hours like Trump.
It's over. There will be no deal, no solution. American business will have to endure until a new president is sworn in.
This will be a good time to invest in big agribusiness because by 2020, there will many, many farmers who will have to sell out at bargain prices. Chinese investors probably already have their eyes on that opportunity. They think in decades.
83
@Bruce Rozenblit
It is China that has created the problem in the agribusiness, and the farmers know it. I think Trump wins on his trade policy. And I am not a Trump supporter.
@bullone
"Trump wins" - what about the rest of us? No offense, but no one but a Trump supporter would say that.
6
@Bruce Rozenblit How can you say that Trump thinks in terms of hours? Seems more like minutes or moment to moment to me.
3
You'd have better luck winning the lottery than convincing both of these guys they should put their personal pride and gain aside for the benefit of those around them.
1
Don’t worry President Trump will retract anyway since Chinese are not doing so. He only wants a safe way to retract. Winding up everything pertaining to China is not that simple. It’s much more complex than anyone can think. Nowadays one finds mostly highly educated Indians and Chinese in all parts of America not to mention all sorts of Chinese goods left, right and centre. Moreover Chinese have invested heavily there in addition to at least a $ trillion in American bonds.
@Sivaram Pochiraju Trump has pretty much used up all of his deflections and sleight of hand, you know, the crisis he will manufacture or exacerbate to have the masses shift their attention.
So, Trump has painted himself into a corner.
2
What we need is for Macron to take this as a project and try to fix this mess. Trump and Xi are not capable. The hardline Americans want regime change in China and Xi knows it.
The other option is for Xi to wait out Trump till 2020. A better US administration would fix this immediately.
4
Trump's trade "strategy" was always inchaote. His mind does not allow for for the strategy to be straightened out and aligned into a series of sequential steps leading to a measurable goal. Economists have pointed out that Trump's personally stated goal of eliminating the trade deficit is an impossibility and contradictory to his tax cut and fiscal policy.
Most of Trump's advisers are hawks in their spheres of interest and urge unilateral confrontation to start conflicts if not conflagrations of which they have no idea where the ultimate outcomes might be.
To win reelection, Trump needs some wins this fall. He has to put points up on the board. The leaders in Tehran and Beijing undoubtedly watched closely the G7 last weekend where President Macron presented a masterclass in Trump manipulation 101. The Iranian and Chinese leaders are probably prepared to give a little to gain a lot.
The Iranian and Chinese leaders know that if Trump turns his hawks loose, then most likely Trump will lose the election while American Middle East foreign policy and American trade policy will be tattered ruins.
I don't see Mr Friedman's high-minded compromise coming down the pike. Mr Friedman hasn't fully assessed the failure of Donald Trump as a president or his administration as steward of American interests.
2
@Paul A Myers
When thinking of a trade deficit, think of your credit card debt. The 'holding' or creditor in essence can call the shots on your finances. If you keep running up your debt you lose ability to apply funds to investments.
1
In fact, Trump has lost the trade war. China may be trying to take over the world, and become the next hegemon, or it might be trying to better the lives of its people, as it has for decades now. There is no question that China's economy will get larger than ours, and it is not a leap to think that they will become leaders of technology, whatever the regulations or transparency laws they write end up. They are growing we are growing old. They make 5G, we sell blood thinners. We had a big advantage, in our cultural hegemony. We are the innovators of democracy, standard of living and law and order, and have been since WWII. We also have taught the world Jazz, Baseball, Basket ball, Rock and Role and multiculturalism. We have a system that rose from the drudge of the rust belt, but through unions and trust in ourselves, invented the Middle Class. We now have Oligarchs pushing us back to a Neo-Aristocracy, lead by the Orange Frappe. If we let that happen, getting a short term win over China will not stop the fall of Pax Americana, and we had better learn Chinese, Go and their music.
18
@William Trainor
If a worldwide recession is the price of getting rid of Criminal Trump and his republican party once and for all, it will still be a bargain. At least we can try to be a democracy again.
Thomas please note that this is not Trump's trade war. The Chinese waged this trade war against America over 50 years ago. Trump just happens to be the first American President to fight for America and not just kick the can down the road like previous US Presidents from both parties. We are fortunate to have a negotiator-in-chief who is getting the US better trade deals with Canada, Mexico, NAFTA, soon the UK, Japan and China. That is exactly why people with microphones hate him.
@P McGrath nobody's arguing that China's been competing unfairly, steeling IP, etc. The author does say as much. And Trump does get credit for being the first president to resolutely do something about it. The problem is that he's utterly unequipped for the task. You may call him a "negotiator-in-chief" - the rest of the world calls him "bully-in-chief". The word "negotiation" by its very definition requires compromise: you give someone something they want and you get something you want. What is Trump giving China that it wants - I mean other than the things Trump took away in the form of tariffs?
3
@P McGrath
"Canada, Mexico, NAFTA" - he gave us essentially the same deal we had under a new name."
4
@P McGrath "Negotiator-in-chief". How original. And not something I would call Trump.
Now, you do realize that the "better trade deal" with Canada and Mexico is Nafta 2.0 (not much changed aside from Trump having his name somewhere in it), and has yet to be ratified, the trade agreement with Japan, China, SK, and the others was called the Trans Pacific Partnership. Dear Leader scrapped that as Obama had a hand in it and that was not quite "kicking the can down the road".
Many in the UK are balking at trade with the U.S. due to our tainted foods and the costs of medical goods may rise.
So, tell us again about that great skill at negotiating.
Lastly, I hate it when Trump has the microphone...
2
Mr. Friedman: Your plan sounds good to me.
Of course, I am out of my league commenting on this topic, and maybe my following question will make that obvious to all:
Which companies were cheated by the intellectual stealings of China? Are they victims who are unable to look out for their own best interest? Has the Trump tribe slashed the agencies that once protected them from such improprieties?
Before we try to make things better for all of the USA, maybe we all should know what that means? Yeah, that's right, I'm coming from a state of distrust too.
5
@Arthur - I wholeheartedly agree. I hear "IP theft" a lot when it comes to China. But AFAIK, most of this supposed theft came in the form of reciprocal agreements between companies and the Chinese government. China said: you want to build & sell stuff in China? Fine, but you have to do so with a Chinese partner company. This obviously means that that Chinese partner will learn some of the things (the "IP") the US company knows. This isn't theft - it's a bargain in which both sides win: the American company gets to make money selling widgets and services to 1.4b new customers and China gets company IP as well as the widgets and services.
Nobody twisted those companies' arms to agree to this. But for decades they did. Why is China to blame here, not the short-sighted companies who agreed to give away their future (IP) for short term profits?
You might argue that the US doesn't have this partnership requirement. That it doesn't steal other countries' companies' IP. I'd say: how is this relevant? It's a country's responsibility to look out for itself: the US could have forbidden US companies from doing business in China until it didn't have the partnership requirement, until it adhered to western IP protection standards. But the US (and Europe) governments let their respective companies give away the store.
Take some ownership for christ sake - stop this victim mentality.
11
@Thomas Wolf My rebuttal to those who complain that "China stole our jobs and our IP" is much the same as your discussion-those businesses wishing to do business in/with China were willing dance partners.
3
@Thomas Wolf
"Take some ownership for christ sake - stop this victim mentality."
Precisely to my thinking. The feighning of victimization has gotten old. And that feeds into my cynicism for the overall affair.
Thanks for the thoughtful comment.
Donald Trump could end his own manmade tariff crisis tomorrow by letting the United States sign onto the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) - the new TPP - a trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam that allies all those countries against China's unfair trade practices.
The CPTPP is the third largest free-trade area in the world by GDP after the North American Free Trade Agreement and European Single Market and would would become the biggest trade agreement in history if the USA joined it.
Unfortunately, Donald Trump can't bear the thought of joining the new TPP because it was an idea of Barack Obama's and it's a good idea on principle.
For Donald Trump - and his voting base - spite trumps reason, common sense, diplomacy and doing the right thing.
Nice GOPeople.
275
@Socrates
I agree that this President has tried to wipe out any legacy of the last President (not possible in reality), but he still tries. I also agree that this President will do the exact opposite of what is good for the country in following the above.
However, I am not so sure we can flood the market with ''cheeseburgers'' so that totalitarian states will enact fair trade practices or honor human rights. (let alone movement in and out of countries)
We need to change the model and attitude.
Just a thought.
7
@Socrates Part of the problem with the TPP was that it was made up of the U.S., and a bunch of countries China finds easy to bully. It of course did not include the real partner we need to help deal with the CCP's plan for global hegemony, Europe. And then there is what Bernie Sanders, someone I don't endorse, wrote:
"The Trans-Pacific Partnership is a disastrous trade agreement designed to protect the interests of the largest multi-national corporations at the expense of workers, consumers, the environment and the foundations of American democracy. It will also negatively impact some of the poorest people in the world.
The TPP is a treaty that has been written behind closed doors by the corporate world. Incredibly, while Wall Street, the pharmaceutical industry and major media companies have full knowledge as to what is in this treaty, the American people and members of Congress do not. They have been locked out of the process."
11
@Sigh I would think that the Trans-Pacific Partnership didn't include European countries for the simple reason that no part of Europe is anywhere near the Pacific Ocean. And as for Bernie, he just likes to hear himself complain about everything. A trade agreement should be designed to protect the interests of those who trade, i.e. corporations. Workers won't do well if the corporations they work for don't also do well.
13
Trump and his so-called trade advisors will never show the insight or self reflection to step back. Some appear to regard our trade talks as a death match where we have to leave China bloody and defeated by the side of the road.
And Trump will only become more unhinged and more desperate for a 'win' at any cost. Just watch as his polls flag ahead of the election and the impeachment investigations gain traction.
For his part, President Xi can't back down unilaterally for domestic reasons. He also thinks he can probably wait out Trump and take his chances with the next president. Rope-a-dope is eminently practical and, coincidentally, appropriate.
Maybe the two leaders will come to their senses, but I think things will have to get way worse beforehand. As a multi-untalented business failure, Trump is in uncharted territory. But he'll want to see how far he can push things, or certainly give that appearance.
Xi will mostly be reactive but I fear a lot of long term damage is being done behind the scenes. For understandable reasons our markets in China will substantially shift long-term to suppliers in other countries. That's partially why Brazil is burning down its rainforest.
Trump doesn't have the knowledge or temperament to be a world leader. And Xi doesn't need us as much as Trump and his advisors think they do.
This probably won't end well.
3
You make a lot of sense. The Chinese must be confused though when they hear over and over that a bi-lateral trade deficit is some how "ripping off" and "stealing". Senators then repeat this rhetoric designed to inflame the most ignorant. Facts are needed to negotiate.
78
@nicolasr
Aye, I readily agree that ''facts'' are required to make a deal, or even jut to deal with reality.
The problem is that this President and republicans will change the goal posts (or facts) as they see fit - or essentially if the facts are against them and what they want.
It is that simple.
13
@FunkyIrishman Wrong on one point-Fox "News" and the talking heads both on and off the couch change the goal posts regardless of the presence of facts.
11
@nicolasr, write-on. From the start of this tariff mess the tweeter-in-chief showed a misunderstanding of the relationship focusing on the trade deficit. The TD is a reflection of the fact that we buy stuff from other countries. And like US employers not being taken to task for hiring undocumented aliens, are the engines of the biggest economy on Earth, US businesses, blameless and the 'victims' by signing onto/accepting Chinese rules & regs to do business there? Historically, transfer of tech is how 3rd world countries lift themselves up.
1
Thinking like Trump , it can never happen ! I need to look macho and not "Smart"
"You don’t have to announce anything or put anything into law. Just get it done your own way and tell your people whatever you want. I won’t tweet a word to embarrass you".
Uhmmmm okay Mr. Friedman, good luck!
1
"Xi seems to be saying that he can’t write into Chinese law the market-opening, verification and transparency regulations."
Nonsense. That IS an excuse for Xi Jinping. If they can build the train that Friedman is so impressed by, then they can change their own laws. It's a single party, after all. If the Chinese are so desperate to save face because of certain hardliners -- the same brutal hardliners that want to squash Hong Kong -- then why are we dealing with them at all? Punish them.
China needs to learn that their right to Western markets is not guaranteed. Friedman wants to guarantee them entry into our markets, and human rights be damned.
7
@Justin Koenig Amen. It is also true that the TPP is a secretive corporate treaty, as Bernie Sanders says, and that the present president has finally taken on the Chinese, who want to pretend to be free trade capitalists but are actually 1930s-style autocratic state capitalists. Unfortunately, our president, who is doing what should have been done a long time ago, is a psychopathic, lying autocrat himself. We need more than six months to resolve this. We need to vote this deranged narcissist out of office and try to resolve our profound differences with China, a country that clearly wants to have things both ways and their way. We should be grateful to the present president for making this issue a central part of the political discussion and cast him permanently out of public life. He has the capacity to destroy the country with or without the help of China.
@Justin Koenig -- So you think that the entire West is going to shut out China as the US does? I don't think so. The US is on its own. And the worse it gets, the more the US will pay.
In my opinion it makes sense to have a consensus Western approach to stopping the worst of China's abuses of trade policy. I don't see how the US, going alone, is going to do it. Why would Xi give in if he can hold out? Xi won't for the reasons people have written.
The presumption of this administration is that he can't hold out against the US's tariffs.
China wants to play ball with the world, particularly the entire Western world with its great wealth and resourses. The West in agreement with each other would likely make much more headway with less disruption. Our so called Pres likes drama more than thought and quiet success with lasting results. He plays to the ignorant crowd with his sordid team of flatterers and followers.
1
Right idea - ceasefire & mini-deal - but unrealistic in details. TPP, no more tweeting abt China? LOL. US means were all wrong - tariffs, threats, trying to force amidst great publicity, demands to change their system to ours. (Never worked with Japan either.) Built resistance and reduced Xi's leverage to do even minimally positive things. Changing Ch will be long-term, incremental and require being strategic, knowing their system, and working intelligently to strengthen domestic forces of change. Cannot be forced from outside. Trump had the wrong team, but even the right team couldn't have told him anything.
1
What I wish Xi would say: ‘If you cut or raise tariffs, we will answer in kind. As Mitch McConnell once said, let the people decide- we will resolve this with the administration elected in 2020.’
2
While I disagree with the way Mr. Friedman characterizes Chairman Xi (the Chinese have presented only measured and rational responses as far as I can see) I do think Trump could and should call a time out. How to do it while looking good? He could scapegoat American farmers and industry, citing their lack of moral courage and commitment, and say that the country needs a referendum in the form of the coming election. His hope would be that the market will rise and float him into a second term rather than a term in jail.
Let's not forget that Trump promised to balance the federal budget.
Someone needs to remind him.
1
"You don’t have to announce anything or put anything into law. Just get it done your own way and tell your people whatever you want. I won’t tweet a word to embarrass you. And we’ll re-evaluate in six months whether the results constitute meaningful progress.’’
As Samuel Goldwyn said "A verbal contract isn't worth the paper it's written on". Trump has every reason to declare a truce with a looming election, but he won't be able to refrain from also declaring it a victory, undermining whatever progress was to be made. On the other hand, how can you negotiate with a country like China that refuses to put anything into writing, lest they actually be bound by it? Unfortunately, both Trump and Xi are two totally unreliable parties seeking to negotiate a "deal". How well has that worked out in the past?
This trade war is in effect China’s tampering in our 2020 elections. China knows they do not need to cave in to Trump’s mad, irreverent posturing and can hold out til after the elections, in effect influencing the election outcome. People will grow increasingly tired of no movement, even if Trump declares victory (and we know he will). The trade issues are real and important. A new president can get to work on it in 2021.
2
Xi is not interested in a deal. Xi is interested in allowing Trump to continue to damage the American economy, so China won't have to deal with him after the election. Xi is playing chess, and Trump is making mud pies.
4
@Joe D Trump also will not make a deal. How would that look on "Fox and Friends"?
1
Thank you Tom Friedman for the punt.
Coal.To no-coal.
One big, simple, commonality for USA/China accord.
The option they can both take for 'better'. A better bigger than both of them.
Thing is, if it's worth thinking about, don't think about it too long.
Else they'll both be going the same way we all will.
With regards..
Mr. Friedman is an optimist. I'd be willing to bet on Xi acting rationally, in his own interest, and China's, but Trump hasn't never used tactics that don't involve bullying, and as Friedman points out, Xi can't afford to be seen yielding to bullies.
3
"....rules based global competition"?
The Trump Administration is doing its best to destroy the World Trade Organization.
3
What makes Friedman think the TPP will accept the US after trump backed out? Does he really think the world revolves around the US? Certainly not since we elected a clown to run things. I am sure the TPP has moved on without us, like so many other good ideas.
18
@MJ: The ludicrous malapportionment of the Senate makes it impossible to ratify enduring treaties with the US.
2
China is at war with the United States, not only in its theft of company property like software and designs, and its decades-long cyber warfare, but with its shipment of enough Fentanyl into the U.S. to be seen as a weapon of mass destruction.
Our only decision is whether to recognize this reality.
Did China see this as a way for them to dispose of the people they don't think will fit in with Chinese communist thinking?
With those earning too low a score on the new ''social index whatever'' be poisoned once they have killed as many Americans as possible?
1
@L osservatore: China knows all about opium wars because it lost a couple.
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I think that Friedman is putting too much trust in Trump being a rationale human being while looking out for the great good and American people. He doesn't care about those things if they don't really have anything to do with him. He is a selfish, narcissistic man who doesn't care about anyone but him. He has made this personal with Xi and wants to show him and the world he can bully Xi into doing what he wants. We are in this thing for the long-haul in some way shape or form.
Should, should, should...alas, we know he won't! Specially his ego-inflating tweets. Trump is a showman, and holding anything private is outside his core competency.
What we should do is to expect the worst. Trump is quite comfortable with the process of destruction, as his bankruptcies show. He is now going after the big one, on a global scale.
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This would be a sane course of action, but as others have mentioned, our President is not sane. He is not driven by reality or facts-- just his gut and his ego. Yang had a great comment when he said our presidential nomination process has become a giant reality show, which is a supremely stupid way to find the person most qualified for the job. We get to vote for someone who is good at reality shows and delivering cutting sound bites for the camera, not someone who is good at governing. I almost wish for the old days of smoke filled rooms when the party bosses would determine who is going to be the party's nominee. They tried to pick someone who demonstrated fealty to the party platform, had the requisite level of experience to execute in DC, and who was charismatic enough to win. Now it's all about being a camera and Internet attention hog, and that's it.
Oh Tom, you poor deluded man, to think that Trump would soften, especially in an election year. He and his sycophant councilors believe they are winning and beating China down. Vichy Republicans are in complete agreement with him.
Until he is out of office, President Tweet will keep on "winning" and the USA and Western democracy will suffer.
I would suggest the next article to be about how to survive the collapse of our trading system. I suggest not fleeing to the UK with Brexit looming.
2
Can some one please read this out loud on Fox News?
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The Chinese are as dependable and trust worthy as Jeffrey Epstein was. And, cookie Trump, who was getting calls in his head from the Chinese white at Biarritz, will keep announcing more visions and wrecking the country.
In the next six months, only one thing will be true for sure: It will be 24 weeks later.
1
While we are wishing and dreaming, I wish a billion dollars fall in my lap today out of the clear blue sky.
This has as much probablity of happening as Tom Friedman's day dream fantasy collated together as a NYT opinion column. The current US president is distracted easier than dogs are distracted by squirrels in a public park and Mr Friedman thinks that Donald Trump will (a) have rational behaviour and (b) follow in the footsteps of Obama (like TPP). To quote a cliche, I'd like what Mr. Friedman is smoking.
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Had to laugh out loud, Tom. While your proposal, a bit google-eyed, makes a certain amount of sense, this is Daffy Don we’re talking about. Wake me on Nov. 3, 2020.
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While I think that Mr. Friedman's hopes and dreams are just that and worthy, I see Trump's activism toward China as exactly what Putin was paying him for.
Trump is delivering to Putin, under whatever pretenses Trump chooses to Tweet or Friedman chooses to believe, precisely what Putin was hoping for.
Disarray in the west and conflict with the east - just like out of a Bond film. It doesn't get any better for Vladimir.
And as Trump is facing the probability of not being re-elected, I anticipate that Trump will lean harder toward "anything that makes my buddy Putin happy."
While some in Trump's administration have dreams of China's communist demise and perhaps others have hopes of a show-down, Trump couldn't care less about China as he might a dumpling station in one of his resorts.
Trump cares only about Trump and as his rhetoric has shown even just recently at the G7, a terrifying support of Putin. One can only wonder why?
Perhaps Putin has some seriously embarrassing Trump tapes. Most likely though, after leaving office, Trump gets his Moscow tower.
The worst part is, that in order to get that deal, Trump is selling out and what I would suggest at way below market value. After all, world domination along with the collapse of the west and east should be far more valuable than a single hotel/condo.
But then again, Trump isn't going to be the one footing the bill. People will - Chinese and Americans - workers & taxpayers.
And Trump will Tweet victory.
Typical Trump!
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@It Is Time! Trump is obviously following Putin's line. Over and over he supports Russian policy against the interests of the US. He takes Putin's word over that of US intelligence leaders. His actions to degrade NATO and disrupt US alliances is precisely what Putin ordered. His actions to disrupt the Chinese US trade relationship and initiate a trade war weakens both China and the US, and pushes China to side with Russia. What would Trump do differently if he were a paid Russian agent? - answer, nothing different. Where did Trump get his salvation from bankruptcy? From Russian oligarchs who take their orders from Putin. Conclusion, Trump is a paid and blackmailed Russian agent.
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@It Is Time!
"Perhaps Putin has some seriously embarrassing Trump tapes. Most likely though, after leaving office, Trump gets his Moscow tower."
He gets amnesty in Russia from his crimes. Maybe he'll live next door to Ed Snowdon.
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I’m taking predictions by this writer with a spoon of salt. He was an Iraq interventionist who saw beauty in a criminal attack on a nation that had not done us any harm.
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Tom, I was reading your piece with growing incredulity, until you mentioned the Trans Pacific Partnership, then my jaw hit the ground with a thud. You totally destroyed your piece.
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Ha! I guess Mr. Friedman drew the short straw at NY Times this week and was ordered to write the Trump-can-be-rational-and-knows-what-he's-doing column.
Hope you draw an easier assignment next week, Mr. Friedman.
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China is not going to "negotiate." They only know power. Right now they still hold the cards. The way forward was TPP. You don't end in 20 months what it took 20 years to screw up.
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Mr Friedman writes "We have a juvenile, unstable U.S. president actually enacting trade policy via Twitter — ignoring the advice of his experts" followed by a list of rational, measured steps, including refraining from Twitter rants.
See the problem?
Trump does not do measured and rational. He is a slave to his emotional instability and it is getting worse before our eyes.
A responsible political party would join with Democrats to revoke Trump's power over trade. Congress gave it to Presidents and they can take it away.
But Republicans don't do responsible. Instead they enable the fantasies of an unfit President. Tom Cotton (R-Fantasy Island) went so far as to write an embarrassing sycophantic NYT op-ed supporting Trump's Greenland debacle.
Until the GOP donor class determines that the cost of a Trump driven recession is greater than the value of potential additional tax cuts and regulatory gutting, GOP Senators will continue to provide cover for the president, and the American economy will be at the mercy of the whims of a "juvenile, unstable president" as he continues to emotionally and intellectually deteriorate.
If a trade war is the only unnecessary war Trump gets us into we will be very "lucky".
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@LT (excellent comment - as usual)
The ''cost'' will ONLY be enacted if republicans (and their backers as extension) are completely wiped out at the voting booth and then no longer have a foothold in Congress to do their bidding. (even though that I readily admit that there are too many corporate Democrats still running around)
That said, the republican game has always been, and will continue to be (until the above happens) to ride the cycle of boom and bust (they create) until people stop voting against themselves. I think that will happen as the crushing new republican taxes (tariffs) make it too painful for even the base.
We shall see.
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@LT Perhaps it's true that Trump is being satisfied with a "business-like" trade war instead of a real fighting war. If so, we may be lucky that he hasn't applied his craziness to real fighting. Frankly I am surprised that he hasn't yet. Perhaps he's waiting for the right timing, just before the election so he can ride the support that comes along with initial military conflict.
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The sad fact remains that Xi is more likely to, both, read and take your advice than Trump is, Thomas. What you propose is a delicate, nuanced and intelligent balancing act and half of this see saw is occupied by a child who thinks nothing of jumping off the ride just as you thought you were getting a rhythm going. Trump won't be satisfied with any agreement if both sides win. He never been interested in balance. That's why nobody wanted to play with him then and nobody want's to play with him now. While the rest of the world moves on, Trump never leaves the school yard.
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They already have an agreement. They are just delaying its announcement so Trump can gain popularity around his re election campaign. He will claim victory , the stock market will jump 10%. They have scheduled a pre written conflict and solution. North Korea is what China wants to change and China will make more concessions if North Korea gets concessions . The deal has already been reached but is being delayed for political gain. Watch and learn.
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@Ralph Petrillo
You give our dear leader too much credit.
Why would China humor this mercurial foolishness, and sign up for four more years, when it can just let Trump dig his own electoral grave?
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@Ralph Petrillo
I suspect he'll pull off a similar trick with Iran.
1. Create a crisis.
2. End the crisis and claim victory.
Crude but effective.
1
@Earthbound
Trump loves dictators. He knows he will go to jail unless he can claim a state of emergency before the 2020 election and not honor the election results.he is what the mafia would call a wannabe. He wants to have power similar to the dictators in China, Russia , and North Korea.
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Mr. Friedman is incorrect in claiming that Xi is trying to intimidate Trump. At no time has Xi resorted to escalation. What Xi is doing is coordinating a skillful strategy of tit-for-tat to signal to Trump that cooperation will yield far better outcomes for both nations than escalation. I suggest Mr. Friedman read “The Evolution of Cooperation” by Robert Axelrod to gain a better appreciation of Xi’s strategy.
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@Peabody: To prepare for Trump, it helps to read up on advice to parents to get through their child's terrible twos.
7
The best way to do that is not by taking a step backward, but, by taking a step forward and surrender to each other. It is win-win situation.
"I coulda been a contenda!"
"I coulda been great!"
Hindsight is 20-20. This nation made some terrible mistakes. As a semiconductor engineer, I witnessed some first hand.
Your right! We have to move forward. The situation can exacerbate. No time for hysteria. Perhaps, that's why Trump had so many business failures.
We eat an Elephant one bite at a time. A step by step approach allows both leaders to project strength, at a time when compromise is the only realistic solution.
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Mr. Friedman knows full well that it is impossible for Trump to stop tweeting about his trade war. Because the right, the left and the center are in agreement that China needs to be punished, what Trump will do, as a re-election strategy, is to double down on his war with China. Be careful of what you write Mr. Friedman, because as you wrote here, we may see in the next year the spread of this trade war to expelling or locking up Chinese Americans in interment camps. Do not forget that finding a common enemy is one of the easiest ways for Trump to unite the country for his re-election.
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@Jean Kolodner Declaring " a common enemy" only works for Trump's base. The rest of us are onto his game.
2
And now that China is buying its produce elsewhere will they come back to us for wheat? Soybeans? Why should they? Less trouble to buy elsewhere. The economy has already been damaged - deal or no deal.
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Could Mr. Friedman run for president? It is so refreshing to read a mature policy proposal. Government needs more grown-ups!
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@Wendy Musk
That’s exactly what I think. He can be at least in somebody’s cabinet.
Many still think that if they were the negotiators, China would make the required concessions.
This is not based on a logical analysis of the facts.
2
I often admire Mr. Friedman, but this analysis attempts to suggest that Trump has the capability of acting rationally, when he's proven time and again that he cannot. Mr. Friedman also neglects to mention that the Republican party is responsible for all of Trump's behavior and they too must be held accountable for this debacle.
The only viable solution to this mess is to vote the entire Republican party out of power (as Jennifer Rubin suggests). Engaging in the kind of wishful thinking Mr. Friedman offers is simply not helpful.
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@Richard Wilson
This is all so true. Trump is unhinged. The rest of the World has figured that out, but I fear far too many U.S. voters fail to see the light. Trump is irrational; trying to deal with him as though he were rational is a waste of time. And, we are running out of time.
Congress lacks the fortitude to invoke the 25th Amendment and impeachment is not going to happen under Mitch McConnell's watch. Time to vote Trump, and nearly every other Republican, out of office.
7
You can't put trade secrets back into a bottle. They are integral to factories, and they become known to workers hired to perform them.
1
@Steve Bolger
You are correct, Sir.
That’s why we should ban short-sighted US Corp.’s— and their self-destructive CEO’s only concerned about next quarter “Golden Parachutes” based on stock-prices even at cost of long-term enabling of intellectual-property theft and Chinese copying— from opening or operating factories in China.
Only verifiable Democracies like India should be used.
We should have left China the third-world dump it was forty years ago.
But Nixon and Kissinger needed a foreign-policy “win” amidst Watergate.
Friedman too needs people to forget his “The World Is Flat” blind-spot-laden Globalization cheerleading that sold out the American worker so the Jamie Dimon’s and Steve Jobs’ of the world could enjoy the benefits of cheap-labor without unions, human-rights, environmental-protections or workplace safety costs.
China need not wait out 2020 since they know his re-election will mean a billion to Ivanka and Don Jr. after unenforceable “so much winning” trade-deals that are in name only (and about as verifiable as coal-plant closures or details about who owns Huawei).
Start a fight? Check. Declare victory? Check. Cash in and let the yokels pay the bills? Check, check, check.
See his Casino’s and so much privatized gain and publicized loss.
Picking fights only failed when he took on the NFL and saw his USFL only win a dollar in their “court-victory.”
If only the league let him buy the Buffalo Bills. We would all be so much better off.
1
I am amazed that three years on in this "presidency" Mr. Friedman continues to report Trump's comments and actions as if he understood the slightest ramifications of his trade policies. The fact is, Trump's views on trade are incoherent, his demands ridiculous at best and incomprehensible at worst, and it is clear that he is no longer a sane man.
Yet Mr. Friedman continues to treat Trump as if he were a decent, sane, intelligent man. He is none of these things. He has said that he and dictator Kim are in love. He has said that Denmark has agreed to sell Greenland to him. He has said that he intends to remain in office indefinitely.
We have seen a number of instances in history, where insane, evil men went unchecked. Were treated as simply "political" figures, and so were enabled. Were appeased. Until it was too late. And "too late" for us is already in the rearview mirror.
Even if we elect a new president in 2020 (assuming that Trump permits an election), it will take us decades to repair the damage he's caused, both domestically and internationally.
We are so far into 25th Amendment territory that we can no longer see its borders. And Trump voters still love him. They know he is delusional, but they don't care. He gives them license to be as bigoted as he is, and this is all they want. If the trade-off is global recession, they will take this deal every day.
And our grandchildren here and throughout the world will be paying the price for their willful ignorance.
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@Jackson Curtis Thomas Friedman continues to write deeply rational thoughts, in the hope, as vain as it seems, that rational thought could take hold. I know he, least of all, would bet that Donald Trump will suddenly begin behaving like a man with a sound grip on reality, but it is up to people, like Mr. Friedman to continue trying their best to inject common sensical thought into the public discourse. Thank God he continues this effort.
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@Jackson Curtis Precisely!
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@Jackson Curtis
They all do it.
Memo to all NYTimes journalists:
Report Trump's comments and actions as if he understands the ramifications of his 'policies'.
6
The term "stealing intellectual property" always makes me laugh and think of Samuel Slater. He's the fellow credited with stealing secrets of English factory equipment, bringing them to America and launching our very own industrial revolution. He was made a national hero for his thievery. Also nowadays much of our intellectual property is created by IMMIGRANTS who then have the intellectual property stolen from them by the corporation or institution where they work. Enough with the overly simplistic attitude for stealing intellectual property and our hypocrisy.
Otherwise your attempt is well-intentioned but don't expect Trump to act rationally. Do expect there are many people in China who know their history and despise the West with great justification.
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@rocky vermont: Patents are a quaint idea that purports to give an individual inventor a cudgel to get paid for ingenuity.
1
Unfortunately, China is busy making alliances around the world while Trump is busy destroying it. The US might be its biggest solo trading partner but China also holds more than a trillion $ in US treasuries. Trump has about 14 months of shelf life while Xi is well more or less an appointee for life. Because the Yuan is not the internal currency of choice, China can also forgive its bad loans without causing a huge hiccup in the world markets. China has a younger population, while the US has aging problem. Labor wages in China are trending up while those in the US, adjusted for inflation, are trending down. And so on..
Now you might like none of it, but guess who needs whom more?
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@Plato: Nobody worries about US government debt anymore, because the Fed will monetize it with quantitative easing in a crash.
4
Every opinion piece about the trade war with China always comes down to criticism of Mr. Trump. Nobody wants to admit that the problem was sidestepped and ignored for a long time by prior administrations; leftist saint, Obama, is never even mentioned in that connection. When Mr. Trump joked that he was "the chosen one", people in the media gleefully jumped on that as evidence of Trumpian megalomania, but in fact it was true; time and events chose him as the president to finally confront the issue. We can all fault Mr. Trump's mercurial style, but maybe we could start giving him some support; it's in our country's interest for us to do so.
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@Ronald B. Duke
What issue is that Ronald. Its not a trade issue. Its an issue of stolen intellectual property and US companies giving them technology. So what do you think tariffs are going to do?
Stolen intellectual property - yes. We need to address that. And we do that in the way all companies in the US have done it. By changing their supply chains from East-West to North-South.
As for US companies giving over their technology in order to operate there. That was their choice.
They did it out of greed. No one forced them.
16
@Ronald B. Duke
Really? Obama ignored them? You may want to do a quick search for the letters TPP - Trans-Pacific Partnership. A deal relentlessly attacked and ultimately forced down by none other the Republican party. It certainly wasn't perfect, but it was a bi-lateral approach to changing roles in the global economy by engendering input from many country's impacted by the burgeoning Chinese expansion.
So no, it was not ignored.
We certainly can and should fault the President, his approach to this incredibly complex issue isn't just mercurial; it's volatile and unstable, and dangerous to the US's prosperity. Flip-flop name-calling is not negotiating. It looks to me like its in our country's best interests to oppose him, and maybe for the other co-equal branches of our government to step up and actual legislate and build consensus-based positions our President can support.
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@Ronald B. Duke for obama to be elected twice, he needed more than leftists, saints and leftist saints. I guess they're better at math than you. And if you want to call trump the chosen one, please make sure you qualify that as putin's chosen one. Because of you think that trump won the election without any direct or indirect russian interference, your math is worse than i thought.
10
We should realise that Xi has a very limited room to maneuver. Xi cannot back down lest he endanger his position within the regime.
Under Deng, new norms were established that ensured the safe retirement of elites if they lost the political struggle. In his consolidation of power, Xi changed these rules: Chinese elites can no longer expect to retire in peace. Xi knows that were he to lose his position, he'd quite possibly be tried for corruption as well. Xi will not move first. Xi cannot give Trump his deal to boast about.
29
@EvdM, but we've seen how Trump can turn even a lousy outcome into something about which he can boast. Even if it's only in his eyes, he will always be a "winner."
1
There is ALWAYS a deal to be made, but at what cost ?
On the American side, this President and republican administration are eviscerating whole sectors of the economy with their massive (and growing) new republican taxes. (tariffs) They cannot prop up all of them fast enough (with their brand of Socialism) using tax payer money to subsidize businesses and people. (namely farmers)
On the other side, it is NOT an economic question, but one of freedom, Democracy (of any sort) and human rights that are on the ''negotiating table''. They are clamping down on groups that are vying for the above, and cannot appear weak in any form, regardless of the cost to them, or the tacit agreement of somewhat upward mobility for the burgeoning middle class. (giving up privacy, movement and said human rights)
They may hold over a trillion dollars of debt, but correct me if I am wrong, but didn't the President and republicans give away far MORE than that in their recent rounds of tax theft ?
Which side is which again ?
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@FunkyIrishman
Sorry funnyirishman, you were doing ok there but you are indeed wrong on the tax cut. While overall unnecessary, that tax cut has behifited my family around $1,200.
Millions of others as well. Yes, the rich do even better but simply no comparison whatsoever with the theft the Chinese have been doing for decades and while you have remained silent.
One more thing, I agree the tax overall was a bad idea,as the debt piling up will eventually catch up to us and it wont be pretty.
@Charles
That may have benefited you and your family, but what has been the cost to poor people (with their social programs and the like cut), with infrastructure spending put on hold and jobs lost, with the rich/corporations amassing even MORE power and foothold through economic domination ?
Again, what is really the cost, and the answer is within your comment when you say on the one hand, but then contradict (a couple of times) with the other. You cannot have it both ways friend, which is what this leader and that leader are trying to do.
We will correct on election day next year.
11