Americans pardon me since I happen to be one are the most stupid population. Lets see Al Gore had more votes and lost, Trump had 3 million less and won, so he could possible lose by 5% and still win, yes that is democracy in action. Stupid because check back in the election of 1968 which was pivotal as they all have Nixon had less popular vote and it came down to Illinois which after counts for days went his way.Look back at the old news shows like Huntley Brinkley and others guess what the comments were "This will be the last election with the Electoral College." Now two more and more than likely a third and yet, no movement to make a change. I know Kelly Ann will say Oh, but most of those votes came from Calif or NY, SO WHAT! It is one person no matter how rich or where gets one vote. But, nothing will change America is lost lets face it. Trump and Bush should never have been President it is interesting that in the three pivot elections it was always the slave states and the Republicans who won. The South has won the war. In 1968 with Nixon the dead Americans in Nam skyrocketed as he stepped up the war and by the way had used his back channel to kill the Johnson Peace Plan. I love America nation of laws it is a joke and the rest of us pay the piper. Thank goodness I was out of the Marines before the real killing started.
53
We go to the trouble of nominating candidates, the candidates campaign, we hold an election, and then, at the end of it all, we do the equivalent of flipping a coin to decide who becomes President. Why don't we do it by lottery and save ourselves a lot of time and expense? We call ourselves a democracy, and yet we select our leaders in a way that puts the loser of the vote in the White House and sends the winner home! the White Rabbit or the March Hare could devise a more rational system of government.
On the other hand, we could pass the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, and bingo!, we'd have ourselves a democracy. Wouldn't that be nice?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compac
46
Well that's depressing. Basically Cohn is saying there's no way the Democrats can win in 2020. The only comfort is that he was wrong about 2016, too.
48
Which is why Buttigieg and fellows see the Constitution as an impediment to "real" democracy, as does NYT Editorial Board and Opinion Kingdom, so it seems.
But the left, Sanders, Booker, Harris, and others, keeps stomping the middle with all its Grand Collective Big Rock Candy Mountain fantasies, so what is a reasonable citizen to do?
15
This is so incredibly irrational on all levels I cannot fathom that the American public is still this detached from reality, lacking any moral fiber, and so ignorant. The so called Rust Belt will leave democracy in rust and broken if Trump, the wannabe Dictator, has a second term. The division in this country now is comparable to the advent of the Civil War. It is tragic of epochal proportions. It appears that white racist Greedy Americans will continue their delusions unless or until a serious recession or depression ensues. It will, of course, happen. Trump’s actual effect on the economy lies between none at all or negative. The electoral college and Citizens United must go.The working class, particularly white, must WAKE UP and quit self destructing. Nothing will change the very wealthy who have made this country a plutocracy, until the middle and poor classes stand up. Nothing to lose but a fascist leader.
55
The map of US showing polling state by state is confusing. There are at least six colors or shades if colors on the map and three in the key ????
13
This election is the Dems' to lose.
They have great policies, such as medicare for all and green industries.
However, they also have talked about slave reparations, "blame whiteys for everything," and amnesty for illegal immigrants.
They could've win this one easily if they stayed on bread and butter issues and cut the fat about identity politics and illegal immigration.
Somehow the Dems are the Trump's biggest boon so far.
128
Right leaning Californians are still flooding into Oregon as we speak. Sooner or later blue Oregon will become a swing state giving those crying about a "meaningless" presidential vote something to...celebrate?
And really, lets stop trying to insult the "rust belt" voters as special people deserving of more attention than other places.The Electoral College is real as Cohn has painfully learned after 2016.
Start the campaign road trip at the start of US Highway 2 in Everett Washington, proceed easterly across the northern tier, Democrats, & give it all you've got.
31
This is a very depressing article, but it also seems highly speculative. Maybe a NYT health writer can write an article laying out the odds that someone of Trump’s advanced age and girth will keel over from a stroke or heart attack in the next 15 months. Enquiring minds want to know.
121
Who cares?
What is important is we tell the American voters we hate Trump and everything he stands for. We demonstrate that by our extremism and favoring everything his supporters dislike. Like favoring illegals over Americans, free abortions up to the moment of birth and beyond, tax increases and a living wage - even for those who refuse to work.
That message must be sent to these people every day.
23
I am glad that people can bring their attention to the reality of the situation that it is all about a few states with some white union type men needed to flip. These voters care about immigration and promises of reparations, free health care for illegals, decriminalizing immigration will surely lose the election.
39
This article alarms me
I truly hope Trump will be defeated
53
This is nonsense. If you go to all states where he’s under 50% Democrats win decisively.
27
“A strategy rooted in racial polarization could at once energize parts of the president’s base and rebuild support among wavering white working-class voters.”
It would be more clear and accurate to write: “A strategy based on racism could at once energize parts of the president’s base and rebuild shoot among wavering racist white voters.”
Why the euphemistic language?
40
You can look at charts all you want.
Better to look at people like Boris Johnson, Rob Ford, Paul LePage, Marion Barry, Buddy Cianci. All a bunch of offensive narrow minded boobs or criminals that got re-elected with little problem. These are just recent examples that pop into my head. I'm sure there are many more.
Too many people just don't think very hard at all or will get engaged or believe there is anything they can do about it. And voting for the person they already know is easy, and all politicians are the same, or "he tells it like it is" (which means continually telling lies), or "isn't elite", all this is apparently good enough.
45
oh good, this time you will be wildly wrong the other way and we will get rid if Trump
30
Even after these two and a half years that have aged me seven years, I still cannot wrap my head around the reality of this syphilitic alpha predator received even a single vote from my fellow citizens. The possibility that vapid narcissist could, after the cruel Caligula horror show that he has inflicted upon the world, conceivably be thrust upon us for another four years due to an ignorant minority of Fox-brained and fear soaked humans is terrifying. My soul hurts from the needless suffering pouring out of this ad-hoc racist administration. Sometimes I wish that ignorance was painful and only education could alleviate the pain. As is, Trumps boundless ignorance seems to cause everyone pain but him; to whom it seems to bring the childish glee of a sociopathic boy burning ants with a magnifying glass.
163
It's hard to stop this stage IV metastasized cancer as long as conservative leaders and so-called christian nationalists are willing to betray our American values and give up integrity for advancing personal agendas and gain. Silence is complicity, my dear GOP friends.
73
All votes count ... Not with the E/C in the good ole USA, and this isn't what I wanted to start my weekend with but there it is.
I hope your wrong.
15
“Of course, we haven’t grown stupider since then,” a German general said before 1914. Subsequent events would bring his statement into question. Now since Trump occupies the White House like some malignant fungus, I firmly believe that we HAVE grown immensely stupider since 2016.
46
Makes sense.
Dems have been focusing on identity group issues while ignoring and in most cases putting down middle American voters.
Dems gotta get more universal in there representation or we’ll have 4 more years of doofus.
44
There is only one solution: As many Dems as possible, move to battleground states, at least temporarily, register to vote, vote Repubs out, go back to where you want to live.
22
One person=One vote. Period.
38
Well hopefully Trump is correct and this is another case of Fake News
13
Any Democrat is better than Trump. Any. Vote out GOP.
35
So nominate Amy Klobuchar.
19
Is this Upshot's attempt to get Trump voters to stay home on election day (like when the Upshot's prediction of a Clinton landslide in '16 handed the election to Trump when Democrats were assured of a win, so they stayed home on election day)
17
Let me get this straight:
What we're saying is - only folks from the sunbelthole states get to choose the next president.
20
Mr. Cohn was wrong in 2016. And I believe a Democrat will win if the the Democratic Party does not push Mr. Biden as it pushed Hillary Clinton in 2016.
22
The perfect argument for impeachment.
10
I see what the Times is up to assuring us Trump will win in 2020 and it’s brilliant, just as it was with Hillary. Too bad lightning never strikes twice in the same place.
12
Say it isn't so!
3
Say it isn’t so!
2
End Citizens United.
13
What is with all this "The Sky is Falling" Chicken Little role play at the NYT??
It is impossible at this point to predict anything in terms of which way the outcomes of the 2020 election lead. Turn out is always key.. and we are too far away from the election to have any real measure of turn-out energy yet.. on either party.
But by all means.. follow Trump in sowing fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
14
Two words for the rust belt: Joe Biden.
11
I hate to tell my fellow NY Times readers this, but Pennsylvania is still very much within Trump's grasp.
27
Get ready for King Donald and say goodbye to democracy.
4
Many white working class Trump supporters stupidly believe that minorities and immigrants have all their hard earned money instead of the richest 1% and the corporations. It's why the polls show Trump's support firmly entrenched amidst white voters without a college education. Yes, they'll be tricked into supporting Trump again by voting against their own economic self interest. A dollar a day more means a lot to many of these folks.
24
We don't have a national election; we have 50 state elections and then use an idiotic system called the Electoral College to determine the winner. One thing for certain: it's not a democratic system.
44
Wrong, there is so much propaganda being pushed to discourage the Dems from even showing at the polls. If the Dems show he loses biggly. Just discount all this and vote.
14
If Trump is re-elected, the United States will crack up.
It will be a toxic failed state.
18
We must get rid of the electoral college before November 2020. Save America from dictatorship.
16
All the more reason to impeach.
8
I detest Tr ump. He is a bloviating bullying boor. His actions are despicable.
BUT: If the Democratic party platform does not include absolute control of our borders, deporting illegals quickly, denying entry to those claiming asylum without their having clear evidence of being victims of at least one of the five accepted justifications for that status -- if they go soft on border control -- I will hold my nose, vote for Trump -- and never, ever, admit that to my friends and neighbors.
Hear all, y'all: The invasion must be stopped. By all and any means possible.
39
Help me out here, NYT. It's my understanding is that the vast majority of polls are still, in 2019, being conducted via cold calls to land lines. Correct? Who still has a landline? Old people. Who still answers the phone when they don't recognize the number calling them? Old people. So, unless I am wrong and pollsters are updating their polling tactics, the only people we are hearing from in these polls are old people. So tell me, why should I trust any polls these days? Also, the polls were terribly, horribly wrong in 2016 and maybe have made Dems too confident, so cut it out with these polls that sway public opinion, especially when we are so freaking far from election day and don't even have a Dem candidate yet.
29
The NYTimes does its best to support Trump where they can. They scratch their heads at his popularity, but they perpetuate these claims of him "winning" and being "strong" etc. in order to make the race as close as possible. This is venality. This is sadly what the Times has become, in arguably the greatest tragedy in American journalistic history. If they really wanted to save the planet, let alone the country, they would stop defending him.
9
Finally the Times is devoting some content to statistical analysis.
Trump is obviously insane and I prefer looking at numbers rather than reading knee-jerk reactions to his disturbing tweets.
6
Oh, nonsense. It is far too early to know anything. I'm no longer surprised that The New York Times engages in this sort of MSNBC-style scare tactic. I'm so tired of all of it. I'm nearly to the point of not caring what happens because “shock news” — especially on this site — has turned me into a jaded, street-hardened, apolitical loner.
9
I sure hope this guy is right!!!
5
Trump's campaign slogan:
"Vote for me, I'll continue to express my racist views."
6
Move to Wisconsin young Democrat!
9
Ridiculous article. Trump is underwater in PA, MI, and WI. Thus I do not see an increase in the EC what so ever.
7
Please say it isn’t so!
3
You can keep on blaming trump, but at some point in time, Democrats have to look at the mirror. Perhaps 2020 will cause them to do so.
Democrats have alienated moderates with untenable positions. ranging from calling 25% of the voters despicable, to open borders, to infanticide-like abortion policy (hello VA) governor, to reparations (what is affirmative action if it is not reparation. And if it is not why did Elizabeth Warren pretend to be Native American, so she can get into Harvard).
Just be honest and see who is not inclusive!
18
The Democrats will still be holding hearings on Russia in 2021. The walls will be closing in!
4
Liberals like me tend to gravitate to the coast. Liberals have to stop moving or start moving back to middle america. Whoever gets elected in 2020, the sky is not going to fall ... unless you're one of those who get deported.
1
News source planting the seed.
3
I hope he is right. I want 4 more years of Trump. He is the only one who will get tough with illegal aliens.
The Democrats want to given them rooms in 5 start hotels when the they cross the border illegally and free health care at taxpayer expense. NO THANK YOU.
16
Geez that was depressing.
4
We are still 16 months away from election day. This analysis is speculation. But then again the NYT election polling the day before the 2016 election proved to be speculation.
3
The Democratic candidate can win 270-268 without FL,NC,OH,WI,AZ,IA,.
They need all the Northeast + VA+PA+MI+MN+CO+NV.
Doable.
13
.. So.. will Democrats/Liberals just complain & moan about the 'unfair electoral college' (probably)
..-Or will they craft a message that wins in the crucial mid-west states..?
..-- Given the policies dribbling from Dem candidates the prospects aren't good..
12
If he wins, god forbid, we must impeach. Almost more important than the White House is to hold the House of Representatives and increase the Democratic majority, FLIP the Senate with a super majority. Send Mitch McConnell packing. Then we will have the votes to rid the country of the trump scourge. Maybe then the SDNY can do their work and put trump away forever!!!!!!
9
If you are the Dems, who helps you in Michigan, PA, WI? Probably Biden. Maybe Pete. Not Warren, Bernie, Beto, etc. maybe Harris helps in Milwaukee and Detroit, same with Booker. But Castro is the one to help is the Latin south- AZ, FL, TX. Castro will be the VP. Who’s on top? I still like Harris, Pete, Booker in that order. Harris /Castro 2020.
4
Now you guys are tabulating the electoral college count!? Where were you in 2016!?
5
No shade NYT, but I hope your polling is as wrong as it was in 2016...
1
Hahaha. This is so awesome.
1
If the electoral college were abolished, the NYT would pick the President every time. Is that what democracy means?
5
Oh the horror! The horror!
Joseph Conrad
Maybe Biden and Harris can make-up, and be the ticket to clobber the Evil Empire.
1
I’m not reading this article. Only here to note that the NYT’s predicted HRC to win until the moment she lost.
6
Should enough states join it, an effort known as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would assign at least 270 Electoral College votes to the winner of the national popular vote, thus guaranteeing that the president would be popularly elected (without amending the Constitution): https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/written-explanation
6
Nate Cohn was all wrong in the midterm election on November 06, 2018 where the Republican party of Donald J. Trump was defeated big time. Trump may listen to Cohn and predict a Red wave! Never happen. It is the blue tsunami that swept the Republican party more than 2500 Republicans, 500-700 state -level Republicans, 44 U.S House Republicans out on the street. How bad he can be now.
3
“Modern times “ ... Full color .
1
Hillary won California by 3.5 million votes and lost the other 49 states by half a million votes. The Democrats are on track to win California by 4 million votes this time and also increase their popular vote margin from 2016.
So...ummm...good job?
6
I’m surprised you have the guts to venture this much speculation this early, especially after how wrong all of you were in 2016.
4
Nate Cohn has a valid argument.
This is not a particularly good time in American history for a Democratic passionate, righteous left wing progressive to fight for extreme positions and policies, only to win the state of Vermont and California.
America needs a sane champion. Someone who can take the rust belt
Senator Joseph Biden...
5
Let the primal screams begin!
4
we’re already scared out of our wits, NY Times. Thanks for this. Thanks for nothing
4
Can't remember the paradigm change a-ha moment: "democracy based on universal suffrage is a complete crock."
May be it was the election of a bombastic bumbling alcoholic drug addicted bigot as mayor of Toronto, former secular Turkey, the Brexit mess, or election of Donald Trump. Perhaps it is the cumulative evidence of all that and more, plus an inner voice keep asking : How is it possible?!
De-program decades of brainwashing that democracy is the best form of government is hard, but possible. Just switch to fact based analysis.
This new insight is a healthy case of confirmation bias. Nate Cohn's analysis of figures, facts and evidence might be stressful and alarming to people still stuck with their old belief and faith in democracy. With new found understanding, Nate's conclusion affirms what's wrong: "it's the system, stupid."
Too bad for citizens stuck with democracy. It's the nature of the beasts: democracy brings bad government to the people.
1
Trump voter commenting:
If the Democrats run a normal, telegenic candidate (e.g. Bill Clinton, Obama) and they avoid the current lunacy issues (90% tax rate, pack the Supreme Court, reparations, nationalize health care), the election is over early. We will be going to bed on time. Rest assured that Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta and Broward County, FL won't be voting for Trump regardless of the nominee.
If the Democratic candidate is one of the whackos, it will be a long evening, but a victory may happen anyway.
2
To summarize.... he could lose by 5% points of the national vote .....which would equate to over 6 million votes...... and for the most part......the recipients of his victory (his base) would be from the same states which receive more return on tax dollars that I will ever get back as a New Yorker...... and my vote is substantially diminished.... compared to this con man’s marks
( I mean voters )..... this is not a broken system.... it’s one that was designed this way...POWER TO THE FEW
7
Absolutely horrifying!
2
I literally don't think I can take this kind of speculation and commentary for the next 15 months. Please don't do it.
5
Suggestion to ensure a Democratic loss: a show of hands at the next debate on whether the EC should be abolished. I think it would be more popular even than the call for racial reparations. But think how it will motivate the base!
2
It is so early that this analysis seems totally premature, like saying that a hurricane could hit a certain place as it leaves the continent of Africa. It is easy to also predict that voters in the crucial states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, even Florida, North Carolina, and Iowa will wake up an not allow a racist demagogue another term. What is this data you talk about? Why did you bother with this?
4
Seriously? Of course Trump will win. He won the first time, rigged election, remember?? You do it once you’ll do it twice . Anyone who doubts Trumps re election has his head in the sand
2
Are these the same people that were telling me Hillary was going to win in 2016?
3
If Trump wins in 2020 I will regard the US as my enemy.
2
So what will Dems campaign on? Open borders. Abolishing private health insurance. I guess the way to win Wisconsin is to pretend that it's Berkeley.
12
"Among the 31 states (plus D.C.) with party registration...40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents." (Axios) Trump can't win with just Republicans voting for him. And Democrats best get our lazy behinds out and vote.
Look, I get why Trump got elected (aside from Russians). He dangled like a flashy new toy "as seen on TV" for years. Plus, for the first time since the Civil War we have major media very happy with "alternative facts" (read lies).
But we have had our noses rubbed in just how much of a lying, deceitful, spiteful, misogynistic, bullying, criminal, xenophobic fraud Trump is--by his own words and deeds.
If we still vote him in, we deserve what we get and should not pitch a fit.
2
There is something rotten in the state of Denmark.
2
You've got the colors wrong. Blue is for Democratic states and red for Republican ones.
2
Way back in 2016 the NYT told us there was a 97% chance that Hillary would win the presidential election. So now we're supposed to listen to their analysis of the 2020 election? This time they're going to get it right? I long for the good ole days when newspapers focused on reporting the news -- with occasional OpEd pieces -- instead of trying to create sensational headlines based on conjecture and careful analysis. Don't tell us what's "plausible." Just tell us the news. You know, tell us what's actually happened (note the use of past tense).
6
So far, Nate Cohn seems to be the one pundit not wearing rossy shades.
I agree, good economy and a solid base on one side. Loonie delusions (open borders, medicare for all, 'am more liberal than you', AOC) on the other.
Clear as day, but only Nate has the guts to say so.
Why could them Democrats not come up with a candidate for all, will always be a mystery to me.
8
You see, THIS is why we can't have nice things anymore.
2
So if million of Dems move to Wisconsin in the next 3 months ...
1
Um, let's cut to the chase here: In 2016 Trump won white women (+9) and white men (+31). He won white voters without college degrees (+37) and white voters with them (+3). He won whites from age 18–29 (+4), age 30–44 (+17), 45–64 (+28), and 65 and older (+19). Trump won whites in mid-Atlantic New Jersey, whites in midwestern Illinois, and whites in the Sun Belt of New Mexico.
In total, 57% of white voters supported Donald Trump. He won the white popular vote. Looking ahead to the 2020 election Trump's reelection hinges on what white voters do. Let's not pretend otherwise when talking about "Obama supporters" and "Hillary supporters," all of whom crossed race, gender and ethnicity.
1
Unless the Democratic party wanna-bes stop putting up their hands for stupid, give-away pitches, they will lose. Unless they can stop promising/threatening "revolution," they will lose. Unless they can stop beating-up on moderates, they will lose. Unless the bottom falls out of the economy, they will lose. Unless they stop trying to repeal the 2016 election, they will lose.
Progressives (a contemporary brand that does disservice to the actual progressives of the early 20th century) now own the party. The forces they marshaled to take over the party will now work against them. Progressives' smug shout-downs of anyone who varies an iota from orthodoxy will leave no room for compromise or coalition-building. Open borders, give-aways to illegal immigrants, extremism on abortion, destroying medical insurance--all losers.
Bet on Trump.
7
We still have an electoral college because????
1
The Electoral College needs to go.
It is as out of date as Slavery and Sufferage.
3
The pendulum swung in the direction of Obama. Then it swung in the direction of Trump. Electing a straight, white male may be our only chance in 2020.
As I recall Al Gore won by 5 million votes but GWBush was elected even w/ the outrageous hanging chads in Fla....dragged us into an endless Neo Con war I the Mid East.....wonder how things would be if Gore had not just rolled over and accepted the GOPs outrageous corruption...and I still wonder why he did not push back. Here we are though. Every person need to come out and vote or we are lost.
5
The system is rigged in favor of the red states.
There is no democracy in America.
There is no rule of law in America.
5
Another pro-Biden commercial. Predicting anything this far from the actual election is rank speculation and worthless.
3
i will have my bags packed....
2
Given that the Upshot still has HRC with a 95.6% chance to still win this baby, this is the best news I've read all day
You confidently put Florida in the Trump column.
Are you KIDDING?
After the hurricane of 2017 that devastated Puerto Rico, thousands moved ashore. First stop: Florida. That coupled with the disastrous red tide that is devastating Florida’s tourism and this president’s blindness to environmental concerns, and you are looking at a decisive win for any reasonable Democrat.
3
Folks I live in the middle states and I will say this, this result is the direct effect of AOC, Ilhan and Talaib taking center stage and becoming almost the de facto representative of the Democratic Party at least in the media. The more you put these three women in the limelight the stronger will be the resolve of the middle states to stand by trump.
We desperately need a middle of the road democrat to be making noise in the media and not these three. Someone like Biden and/or Buttegege so they can try to reel in and win the middle state center of the road voters. But the media is INSISTENT on giving so much air time to AOC, Ilhan and Talaib. These women are considered the radical left by not just the conservatives but also middle states democrats. We haven’t learnt our harsh lesson in 2016 and continue to pelt out extreme left ideology in the media through these three women. And that my friends will assuredly get us trump for another four years in 2020. Don’t kill the messenger I’m just telling you what my neighbors and friends say about what’s going on with the Dems. And they’re all Democrats.
We need to listen to Pelosi and dial down the AOC/Ilhan bull otherwise we are doomed. Again.
16
Minnesota turned already red.
2
President Trump got Democrats to hate being told to leave America after they said they would leave America if he got elected.
Odd.
4
DJT , like him or not our economy seems to have endured him ,
obviously he lacks the political polish and charm we have to
expect from PODUS . The Democrats have their work cut out for them if they want to beat him .
'' Everyone has the ability to be a Champion , If they are willing to prepare '' Bobby Knight Former Head Basketball Coach .
1
This is, by far, the most depressing bit of information I have received this year. If America re-elects this thoughtless, vulgar narcissist, all hope will be lost for your great republic.
5
Trump cannot be assumed to a be a racist even by your wildest definitions.
3
The tyranny of the minority.
2
After HRC, hard to imagine a lead the Dems can't screw up.
3
The thing about Trump is that he does not like to lose. Since this contest is about electoral votes, that is what he will go after. He is all about strategy. If he loses the popular vote, that does not even phase him, because that does not win the presidency. The country has had enough time to see that. He figured that out last time, and that is what he is going for again. If the Democrats want to win, reach the states that can tip the Electoral College by showing that their platform will benefit everyone. They have to stay out of the Trump mud!
3
You wouldn't think it imaginable.
But, if the popular vote fails again in 2020, look to see citizens in the streets like is going on today in Puerto Rico.
Yes, we will look like so many other 3rd world countries at that point, but sane Americans will not tolerate another 4 years of Trump's insanity, especially since every day of his presidency is a precious day lost in the fight against climate change. 4 more years of climate change ignorance, better termed malevolence, is just too intolerable.
The protests against a Trump re-election will be historic, majestic and awe-inspiring. In the end, Trump will finally be correct about the crowd size.
6
Messaging. The Electoral College winner in 2016 got there with considerable Russian help and the message that the system was rigged against his voters. He and the Republican Party have made sure to rig the system against his and their voters. Democrats need to hammer this point home, and not be distracted by the tweet of the moment.
Every policy needs to be about equality of opportunity, whether one is a laid off coal miner in WV or a recent immigrant in AZ. Policies like Medicaid for all or Medicare for all should be made clear they are about freeing everyone from the tyranny of the employer and unleashing people to work where they are best suited or to start their own businesses. That’s how you grow the economy, and the real threat to the current Oval Office seat warmer.
1
the Radical Left and the identity politics of the Democratic Party leave me no choice but to cast vote for Trump - not the man but merely as a representative of a counter force, a lesser of two evils. It'll be the 1st time ever for me to vote Republican after a lifelong D-straight party ticket voting.
8
I'm a PhD-trained statistician who is very impressed with this analysis. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen of the Times.
The Electoral College is defined by Article II of our Constitution but has its origins in the Declaration of Independence proposition that, "... these united Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States." It is time for Democrats to stop whining about the unfairness of the Electoral College and take positive steps to amend the Constitution if they so choose.
5
Analysis is futile when the incumbent candidate for president knows no boundaries of decency; has no compunction leveraging nationalist rhetoric and employs false narratives to win a second term.
Here are my thoughts and they may not be popular here. When your fighting someone that will stoop as low as it takes to get reelected it's time to fight fire with fire. That is only if you wish to be pragmatic. If you rather take a public stand for morality regardless of the chance of that giving the nation four more years of this administration, then you reject running a 'strategic' campaign. For example: since people of color, new foreign born Americans are not likely to vote for Trump why take such a strong public stance in their defense and take the bait, which to a large degree, is what it is? Hammer home the issues that also matter, and are popular with most Americans instead of taking a stand that will isolate millions. Most Americans, overwhelming, are not racist but do feel we have lost control of our borders and millions wishing enter are from countries very alien in every way. Millions feel people wishing to emigrate here from these nations need to come in a measured way to insure assimilation rather than at levels, that in a democracy, stokes fear of radical change. No need to change how you think, only better choose the issues you wish to debate. Immigration was likely the biggest player in Trump's victory. What do you think 'Make America Great Again' means?
7
Utter nonsense, and the NYTimes really needs to be more thorough that using the Upshot for analysis. The electoral college has been in place for ions. It works as intended, giving a voice to all states, not just a population of people as if the states didn't exist.
And to imply that Trump will win because of the electoral college is to admit that the Dem party or/and their candidates do not appeal to voters not on the coasts. If that's the case, and I'm pretty sure it is, the Dems have some work to do and that work should NOT include changing the constitution to fit their whims or lack of reasonable policy solutions.
8
Terrifying. Consider the weekend ruined. Lincoln said the country had to become all one thing or all the other. Garrison Keillor said he was ready for a duplex. So am I.
A Trump re-election will lead to people in the streets, as witnessed in Puerto Rico today.
It will be ugly, but necessary.
2
I live near many poorly educated whites who are barely hanging on in Pennsylvania. They believe Trump cares about them the way children believe severely alcoholic parents care for them. That is to say that no one else cares. Until a Democratic candidate shows up in the Rust Belt and screams, "I care about you" Trump will win hands down.
11
This analysis starts with a desired result and selects only the data that support that result.
If a poll of Wisconsin hurts Trump, throw it out. If another poll of Wisconsin helps Trump, add it in.
Choose the area of Wisconsin with the most stable Trump support in the Marquette poll and emphasize it, while de-emphasizing the rest of the state where his support dropped more. Ignore that his support dropped 1% even in the Milwaukee area ("virtually unchanged"), in a state he won overall by only 0.8%.
In Florida, choose ratings for two Trump friendly congressional districts in a county Trump lost overall by over 290,000 votes and extrapolate those trends to be significant for the entire county, even the entire state. Ignore the inconvenient fact that one of those districts flipped from Republican to Democrat in 2018.
The entire analysis is an exercise in cherry picking data to fit a previously determined result. Trump may or may not win the Electoral College again, but this analysis sheds no light on his prospects.
7
@midwesterner The article stated that Republicans got more House votes in Florida than we did. You respond by pointing to one district where we flipped the seat.
So who's cherry-picking?
You claim that "This analysis starts with a desired result and selects only the data that support that result." Why would you think that? Looks to me like you're projecting.
The article is concerning, even depressing, but we should face up to the real prospect of Trump getting reelected. And that may well influence who we vote for in the primaries.
It does highlight the risk of nominating someone who will strike voters in places like Wisconsin and Arizona as too progressive. It's a drag, really, I wouldn't even think about backing Biden other than he might be the best bet against Trump.
11
As long as we have the Electoral College, a few geographic regions will determine the outcome of our presidential elections until we can change the system. In the meantime, for those of us from blue states who are able, let's think about moving to shift our excess blue votes to the places where they are needed most and might actually matter: Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona. It would be really sweet to turn around a gerrymandered state district, Congressional House district, a Senate race, and the Electoral College result.
2
@WestCoaster
"As long as we have the Electoral College, a few geographic regions will determine the outcome of our presidential elections"
Would not the same be true without the Electoral College,
6
It is important to keep these messages out there until November 2020.
1. Yes, Trump could win again with an even larger popular vote loss.
2. Yes, the EC is archaic. No, it's not going away anytime soon.
All concerned should focus on turning out that 40% of non-voters who were in many ways responsible for the 2016 results. It is well documented that they are younger and generally more likely to prefer the Democrats. The higher the turnout the more likely a Dem will win .
14
@jar
Your post illustrates how important it is to get informed and involved in the PRIMARY. Waiting around for the general election will likely result in another center-right corporate candidate. A candidate of small baby steps.
Such a candidate will be a Hillary Clinton redo. Millions of dissatisfied young people will "vote" by staying at home. Trump will be reelected.
2
@Concernicus Did you by any chance regard Barack Obama as a "center-right corporate candidate"? If so you're way out of step with most of us Democrats who still love him.
He is the first president to receive more than 50% of all votes in both his elections since Eisenhower so he was popular with voters in general.
jar's belief that it was the non-voters who were responsible for Trump's win is silly. It was a perfectly normal turnout overall so how could it be the main causal factor?
Don't confuse your wishes with reality.
3
@Concernicus
Which Dem candidates are right of center?
1
We need to get rid of the antiquated electoral college system. We should be voting directly for national offices, not allowing a few votes in two or three states to dictate an unpopular choice for national office. Twice in the last 20 years, we have ended up with a president whom most people did not vote for. As a result, we have entered unwinnable wars, the deficit and debt have risen dramatically and currently, many Americans are fearful due to bigotry in the Oval Office. We have a Senate that refuses to take up bills the House has passed. This cannot be allowed to continue.
10
@Barbara
Before it appeared to favor Republicans, this may have been possible, even if it is a technical challenge. Now that it is seen as partisan, there is no chance it happens.
We love our Constitution - in part because it was very well designed, and in part because we correctly do not trust each other enough to rewrite it for the public good.
3
This and the other Nate Cohn story today about White Anxiety combine to provide the best explanation I’ve seen about the current state of politics in our country. And done in a very non-political way.
Keep publishing these types of stories NYT - they help all of us understand the gaps in understanding between different parts of the country, which will be critical to helping bridge them and build a more empathetic country.
2
Reasonable and well thought out.
2
So, in the US you have an Electoral College of 538 people representing 350 million people. In Hong Kong, we have an Election Committee of 1,200 representing 8 million people. You think you have a democracy. We have 2 million people marching peacefully who know we don’t. Seems like 350 million Americans need to go to College ...
19
You are correct that we don’t have a true democracy but wrong that the citizens don’t recognize this. Many of us know this full well and are deeply frustrated by it. The only way to eliminate the electoral college is by amending our constitution. It would take 2/3 of Congress and 3/4 of the states to support this. There’s no way that those states who benefit will vote against their own interests.
1
Democrats starting to realize they will be losing again.
7
"Polarizing Campaign "
Telling the truth is polarizing?
Who knew.
4
@George Orwell
All due respect, but Mr. Trump couldn't tell the truth if his life depended on it. I would've thought that was apparent by now.
1
@George Orwell Telling the truth? Who knew?
Get rid of the electoral college and make voting mandatory as in Australia. You must pay a fine if you don’t vote in Australia.
8
The Republican party is facing a demographic wall. The fact is that white people are going to be a smaller and smaller percentage of the electorate due to natural population growth and white people comprise nearly all of their constituency.
That's why they will never agree to get rid of the EC which favors them. That's also why they will make every effort to make it much more difficult for people to cast their ballot with ID laws and such. Gerrymandering districts is another way to gain more control by making district boundaries that favor their party.
It's a fight that they will ultimately lose.
Now being identified as the racist, white supremacist , xenophobic party just adds to their problems. There are only so many people who want to be seen agreeing with racists.
Hopefully we'll still have a democracy by the time Republicans have played themselves into oblivion.
2
@LibertyLover - They will ultimately lose, but it could take a decade or two.
4
The electoral college is a scam that has outgrown its usefulness, give that it is being gamed. Just another form of gerrymandering.
15
@NandoOne of the main reasons the Founders created the EC was they thought it would serve as a check on the "passions of the electorate," as Madison put it, and block a clearly unqualified person from becoming president. How well did that work in 2016?
1
...on Thursday he disavowed the “send her back” chants that supporters directed toward a congresswoman who immigrated to the United States as a refugee. (By Friday, he was declining to condemn the chants.)
Yet another crazy reversal.
Here’s a chant: Make it stop! Make it stop!
9
Sometimes I hate this country. Right now, after reading this article is one of those times.
6
If the Dems register many of the newly enfranchised felons in Florida ( not included in your samples of previous voters), that big block of electoral votes would be hard for Trump to offset
1
@Phil Bereano
In Florida, after the law changed allowing felons to vote, most could not even be bothered to register.
This is not exactly a group of people that exemplify good citizenship.
@Phil Bereano
Yes, but we may need to help them pay their fines before they can:
https://www.governing.com/topics/public-justice-safety/tns-bill-requires-felons-to-pay-before-voting.html
1
We have a Republic in which the states cede certain powers to the federal government The states elect the President and their Congressional representatives. Why should the coastal state majorities dictate behavior to other states any more than Sweden dictates to Finland.
4
@Kent Kraus Why should the southern and western minority states dictate to the majority states?
@Kent Kraus because “one man, one vote”
To a question of why Americans were opposed to the Iraq war but believed we would "win it," Don Imus' former sidekick Bernard McGuirk blurted out, "Because we're a nation of morons." (He forgot he was speaking to largely a right-wing audience.)
A lot could change in the next 17 months, but if after all of trump's crimes, Americans give him another four years--and a statute of limitations expiration--the good people of this country will have some decisions to make for themselves and their families.
4
To avoid repeating the Electoral College miscarriage of justice (since it is an antiquated insult to a truly representative democracy and Hillary actually won the plurality of the votes) why not advocate that committed voters move to these borderline states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Montana), at least for the election, then return, if they like to their home state? Companies, after all, buy many of our politicians with their strong lobbies. Why don't political parties subsidize voters moving to effect electoral college outcomes?
2
Fine analysis by Nate Cohn. My question of readers is that considering that if this were to happen it would be the third time in 20 years that Democrats had the plurality of votes but lost the electoral college and also considering that it is perfectly clear that Trump views those not in his base as enemies of his state....if this happens again what should the majority due? Can democracy survive a minority party that will use the Supreme Court ( both Breyer and Ginsberg are unlikely to make it to 2024 and thus we will have a 7-2 right wing majority for decades) to reverse all gains in policy that have been made since 1933. I recall reading in 2000 that the GOP planned that if Gore was to win the electoral college and lose the popular vote they would demand the White House for Bush and make the country ungovernable. Are we willing to live under this tyranny forever?
7
I tire of the broken US election system. As a Californian resident my vote in the presidential election is irrelevant, Why bother even voting. Add to that, gerrymandering is now officially ok as is superpac funding. What could go wrong.? Perhaps I should be sent back. The Native Americans would probably agree.
9
Native inhabitants ( Indian , Aleutian, Mexican, South American, Islands ) surely petitioned for gun control in those early days. Fortunately, now, tyranny and war have been deemed historic relics. And could never happen in modern educated society. Especially those taught by Ivy school curriculums.
If Trump wins again in 2020 it only reflects on our collective failure and responsibility. If we are that kind of electorate then so be it. At least, it will stop us from blowing our own trumpet about how great we are.
Out in the real world - at least here in the South - it is quite clear that Trump has plenty of fans. They aren't changing, they listen to Fox as their only news source and many of them do not believe that Mueller had anything negative to say about Trump. They have no problem squaring their religious beliefs with Trump's behaviors. There is seriously nothing the man can say or do to change their votes. So reading about how the electoral college is even stronger for Trump is completely depressing and dispiriting and unfortunately probably on target for four more years. It is truly enough to make one cynical and to turn away from any source of news altogether because what is the average citizen supposed to do now?
8
So no mention of the electors that could actually do their duty and protect the country from a dangerous demagogue? If they’re not willing to do their duty (and they didn’t in 2016 despite Trump’s obvious disqualification), then why do we continue with this hopeless system?
The better alternative is obvious: the country should vote directly for the president, the one vote that is truly national for every American citizen and would end the divisive red state/blue state world we suffer under today.
2
I-M-P-E-A-C-H . If we cannot count on a fair election to follow the will of the majority, then we must use the legal mechanism available to congress to excise this cancer of a man from our body politic. I am counting on Nancy Pelosi's wisdom and judgement to time this right. Run the proceedings in September of 2020 and have a grand spectacle of all his ignorance, illegalities, and general ill will to show the American public his unfitness to lead the country, and let them judge. Conviction in the Senate be darned.
3
I'm in the Democratic camp of those ready to vote for anyone but Trump, while many Democrats seem to be picky and are hoping for some mythical perfect candidate to arise. Not me--I'd vote for Joe Biden's dog if it would get Trump out of the White House. I'm pretty convinced that the Democrats will actually elect Trump, so it's disheartening. I can't afford to move to Canada or Mexico or some other place, so if Trump wins I think I'll just undertake a news moratorium and no longer pay any attention to what he does. Maybe ignorance will be bliss.
2
A very depressing column, until I realized it is a way of arm-twisting Democrats to choose someone moderate and electable.
2
It seems that the EC is flawed only when HRC or some other Dem loses, otherwise it seems that the road to 270 is no issue to the Dems.
4
Crazy that now only Joe Biden wants to keep Obamacare in place. In 2018, The Dems were all about slamming the GOP for wanting to pull down Obamacare and now all of their other candidates want to end it in favor of Medicare for All. In making that shift, they've given up a significant argument against Trump's re-election.
11
Wait until voters find out that the Olympics will have biological males competing for womens medals and the Democratic candidate supports that.
7
An even bigger question is this: if trump loses by just a few electoral votes will he relinquish the presidency? Or will he contest the result and prod his minority cult into some kind of perverse anti-American violence in the streets? He shows every indication of being capable of such a ploy. To avoid this outcome the election needs to be a landslide where trump is the loser, bigly. The peaceful transition of power is a core function of our democracy, this is one norm that we cannot allow trump to disregard.
2
I don't know how the ideals of George Berkeley (Berkeley was an idealist) are compatible with today's healthcare system. I listened to a podcast feat. Robert Lustig and although I have not read any of his work I probably would agree that there is validity in his book titled, "The Hacking of the American Mind: The Science Behind the Corporate Takeover of Our Bodies and Brains."
(Source: https://www.amazon.com/Hacking-American-Mind-Corporate-Takeover/dp/1101982586)
I appreciate food but I am not a foodie. I appreciate good music and good food. I tend to agree with much of Thomas Merton based on my experience, although I don't agree with some of his theology. I think it's a challenge to have a discussion based on perception because ... .
It's a cliche but I think it's true that it's easier to say what ... is not than what ... is.
Maybe Joyce Meyer like Sam Harris share a common goal, in that, the battle is of the mind. However, many of us can not afford basics verse a facelift. And, I think it's a disservice to our own acceptance--humanity. It's good that younger generations have the knowledge to avoid an obsessive amount of sugar.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Lustig
I think evolutionists are compatible with Catholicism. However, evolutionary science is not systematic theology. They are two distinct (no pun intended) fields of study.
Kamala Harris did Joe Biden a favor. He wasn't ready or prepared for the first democratic debate.
Make MY vote count. The USA electoral college system is the most outrageously undemocratic system in the entire world. Why is the US election system any better than those in Russia or in Venezuela where they just kill their political opponents who threaten their chances and just steal the election? The US electoral college system just steals the Presidency regardless of the will of the people. We don't kill the political opponents (they do it instead on thousands of gun violence victims every year) but we manipulate the system and allow the people vote anyway they want but elect whoever 'they' (the system) want. Its time to bury this antique system for good and make the country right for 21st century.
MAKE MY VOTE COUNT!
5
@Ryan,
Move out of NY. to a state that moves from Republican, back to Democratic, back to Republican, back to Democratic, back to Republican, back to Democratic, e.t.c.
Cohn assumes that Trump wins the same percentage of those demographics in Rust Belt states favorable to him. However, a stronger Democratic nominee who actually campaigns in those states should be able to shave off a few percentage points from Trump's margin with those groups while at the same time getting a slightly higher percentage among Democratic-leaning groups. It should be enough to return those states to the blue column. If the nominee is Biden, Pa. won't even be on the table.
1
All of these "victims" in smaller populated states that trump depends on are not victims at all considering the reality of their voting power.
It's way beyond time to change the Electoral College though I know in reality it's nothing more than a pipe dream. The fix is in and it's here to stay.
4
If we assume that enough voters in both Michigan and Pennsylvania either turn against Trump or are persuaded by the Democratic nominee return to the Blue fold, the 36 electoral votes of those two states would reduce Trump's 306 electoral vote total of 2016 to 270. That is still enough to win him reelection.
Therefore, the Democratic nominee will need to win one other state. NH, OH, WI, VA, NC and perhaps NM are possibilities.
There have been a number of national polls suggesting that Trump would lose to Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, even Booker or Buttigieg, the latter two showing no promise of getting the nomination at this stage. Most of these polls show the Democrats with percentages in the high 40s and Trump in the 41-43% range.
As this article hints, these types of polls are illusory.
In a national poll, one would expect Trump to have support somewhere in the 39-45% range. Whereas 90% of Republicans are willing to identify themselves as Trump supporters, Democrats and Independents are less willing to reveal their support of a man whose behavior and words can be worse than distasteful.
Therein lies the rub. The fallacy in this article is that it assumes Trump will lose a state in which he is polling at less than 50%. It does not logically follow that the Democrat will get all remaining votes and win the state. A third-party candidate or the "closet" vote for Trump could spell the difference.
8
@Bwana
Bingo! Well said.
And the Dems don't understand your excellent point, Bwana. They're still barking up the wrong issues tree.
The Dems will not win back white Obama-Trump voters, and they still don't understand why black *taxpayers* are sick and tired of the Democratic party.
If Trump wins in 2020, it will be because financially successful people sacrificed their values and voted in their financial interests while working class people succumbed to their insecurities and voted against their financial interests. An oxymoron for sure.
14
@JoAnne Gatti-Petito
No. Trump will win because the Dems have abandoned *taxpayers,* no matter their financial status.
7
@HarlemHobbit
Don't kid yourself. Almost all politicians have abandoned taxpayers. It's only corporations that matter. Did you forget Citizens United? Republicans only care about the donor class.
1
A marvelously well-researched piece; however, there isn't even a presidential candidate for Trump to run against. There is no platform specific to a specific candidate; we don't know what the face of the Democratic Party will look like. In short, we know nothing other than what the polls tell us. Without knowing who is running for President (Will Trump be primaried? Will there be a third-party spoiler on the Right? On the Left? What will the Republican platform look like? And the list goes on), this is nothing more than an academic exercise that to which a Political Science professor might award an A.
7
This analysis notes the importance of Wisconsin and Florida for Democrats to win the electoral college vote. Note that Florida voters in 2018 (by a 2/3 majority) approved a referendum giving convicted felons the right to vote. This potentially could add 1.2 M voters, the majority of whom would vote Democratic.
To blunt the impact of all these new Democratic voters, the Republican legislature passed a bill (signed by the Republican Governor) requiring that convicted felons pay all their debts to the state before being able to register. This requirement at a minimum would eliminate 400,000 new voters.
So could a Democratic billionaire (I'm looking at you Tom Steyer) provide the funds to pay of these debts? Just a thought.
18
@Bill
It may be a false assumption that ex-felons will lean left. Many people on prison are unexpectedly (to me at least) quite conservative politically.
4
I write this as a current Milwaukee resident. Given the importance of my city and state in the 2020 election, I wonder why I see virtually no efforts by the Democrats to galvanize voters here. If this is the place that could make or break Trump’s bid for re-election, I would expect to see DNC workers and volunteers swarming the streets and constantly knocking at my door and those of my fellow Milwaukeeans to make sure we’re registered to vote, have the now-required ID that we need for election day, are well-informed about the issues, etc. Instead I see nothing. It’s true that the convention will be held here in 2020, but all the locals are discussing on that front is how much a family might be able to make by renting out their home to convention-goers. Democrats, what are you waiting for? Trump keeps visiting, but where are you? I’m just very surprised and saddened by the lack of effort and organization to change minds here. Those of us who live here are doing what we can, but we could really use some help now, not 6 months before the election.
41
@Elizabeth Cady Stanton what you're seeing is part of the natural advantage of the incumbent. The Democratic candidates are too busy running around between early primary states in hopes of beating each other to worry just yet about beating Trump.
As for the DNC itself, it tends to spend relatively little money on generic voter turnout efforts and mainly dedicates its war chest to specific candidates in races that are shaping up to be winnable but close.
2
Don’t be looking for the DNC. Be the change that’s needed, voter registration and voter activation succeeds best when led by grassroots organizations. Is there a local Indivisible or Swing Left? What about your county or state Democratic Party?
3
Thanks for taking the time to respond to my post, TJ. I completely agree with your analysis (and in the interest of full disclosure, I should add that I’m a poli sci prof). I just wish the Dems would reconsider their short-sighted strategy and play the long game. WI has been a swing state for quite a while now, turned from its socialist roots largely through the efforts of a powerful but quiet conservative foundation (The Lynde and Harry Bradley Fdn, highlighted in the book Dark Money). For decades they’ve poured hundreds of millions of dollars into establishing a conservative infrastructure of think tanks in WI that churn out misinformation, they’ve broken our unions, they’ve undermined our public schools, they’ve suppressed the votes of people of color, and they’ve helped elect republican legislators who’ve gerrymandered our state within an inch of its life. If Democrats don’t learn to play long game as well (esp. directing national money to build state-level infrastructure) I don’t see much hope of ever bringing WI reliably back to blue. As someone born and raised here, I wish it were otherwise. Overall, it sounds like we’re on the same page: lasting change requires ongoing effort and investment, not a last-minute Hail Mary pass a few months before the general election.
5
Did I miss something? Did Mr. Cohn make a plausible argument that Trump could win a state Hillary won in '16? I didn't see it. If not, then how does his electoral college lead grow bigger?
I don't see Trump winning a single state Hillary won in '16, and he is likely to lose at least one of the swing states he pulled away from the Dems, perhaps more.
The odds are far greater, it seems to me, that even if Trump is reelected, he'll do it with fewer electoral votes, not more, than in '20.
10
@Raindog63It is possible that the election ends up in the House of Representatives.
Trump won Wisconsin in 2016.
To win in 2020, we need to get people to move to Wisconsin from solidly blue states like California, New York, and New Jersey. Wisconsin is going to be very, very close in 2020, and it is a must-win state for Democrats. The 2020 election may be decided by fewer than 1,000 votes in Wisconsin.
College students could spend a semester at UW Madison. Retired people could move to Madison, or Door County, or Hudson (just across the border from Minneapolis/St. Paul on the St. Croix river). They wouldn't need to stay forever, just long enough to push Wisconsin back to blue. Six months or a year might be enough. If people really care about getting Trump out of office, this kind of migration is what is needed.
15
@Susan
Such a proposition is only reflective of our our nation's moral bankruptcy. If the natural outcome of 202 election is Trump's victory then we should let it happen We get what we deserve. The 2020 election will tell what kind of people American are - Regressive or Progressive?
1
@Subhash I do not deserve trump. America does not deserve to be trashed because the electoral college favors rural states over population centers.
1
Lets remember Lincoln was vilified as a “monkey” in the hotly contested 1864 election facing a Democrat candidate advocating the Confederacy be allowed to succeed. Yet Lincoln won a major victory confounding the “pundits’ of the day. Demonstrating that in critical moments the American people can make sensible choices in the best interests of our nation. Why should we imagine we’re that much different today ? Unless we’re all mesmerized by the nation’s most vigorous and long lasting post-War economic expansion. Maybe we’ll learn if the critics forever claiming America is all about “business” are correct. Hope springs eternal !
6
@Peter I Berman I'd argue that the data and analytics available to the pundits in 1864 was probably a bittttt more rudimentary than what's available now. That said, the general election is nearly 16 months away. A lot can happen between now and then.
@Peter I Berman
Americans of 2020 are not the same as those of 1864! Neither is the nation. Corporate power is entrenched now. Today's Republican party is worse than 1864's Democratic party. There was no equivalent of Facebook or Twitter in 1864. Voters of 1864 were more independently thinking lot while today's voters are Tribal!
In the beginning the Founding Fathers so feared democracy that they didn't create one.
The white Anglo-Saxon Protestant men who owned property intended to create a very peculiar kind of republic. A divided limited different power constitutional republic of united states where men like them were divinely naturally created equal persons with certain unalienable rights of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
And even that elite could only directly vote for and directly elect their representative in the House of Representatives. Each state's legislature determined who could vote in that state.
While each state legislature orginally elected each states two Senators. A constitutional Amendment gave individual voters the right to directly elect Senators. But a half million people in Wyoming/ Vermont have as many Senators as 39.5 million Californians.
President's were and still are elected by the Electoral College determined by the popular vote in each state. Where indivudual votes cast in one state don't count nor matter in any other state. There is no national popular vote election for President. There are 59 separate sovereign state elections.
The Electoral College President nominates federal judges for life with the advice and consent of the Senate.
Africans were given the right to vote by Amendment then legislation. Women were given the right to vote by Amendment. Immigration decreasd the WASP population. Factions aka political parties were born.
6
The article is based only on people who expressed an opinion. That’s proper, of course. But how many ‘no opinion’ people were there? Could they tip state elections if they were to form opinions? Are they a numerically useful target for the presidential candidates? It might be interesting to know.
2
You would think the Democrats would understand this and come up with a coherent strategy for taking back the White House and Senate. But they're too busy with target practice (shooting themselves in the foot).
8
No I don't think so. I think Trump just might lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and maybe Florida.
But you could be right, depends on number that come out to vote. Last time to many stayed home. Lots of blacks, I will tell this, after the disaster go home speech, well that put a end to the black vote staying home. They will come out just like in the 60s.
7
@bigruss
Black people voted overwhelmingly for Hillary to no avail. We are 13% of the population, and can not as a stand-alone group put any candidate in office. Why don’t you challenge the voting of whites, the majority population? Trump is president because 63% of white men and 52% of white women voted for him. Change that voting dynamic and he’s gone.
6
@Lynn in DC Hear! Hear!
Bottom line: I'll take another 4 years of Trump if it means delaying the progressives' death wish of de facto open borders, banning employer-based insurance, and reparations for 8th generation descendants of slavery. We as a nation can survive Trump, we can't survive open borders and socialism at the same time.
21
@Jonathan trump is more of a threat to this nation than any item you listed. Our country, our constitution cannot survive another 4 years of trump. Neither can our planet.
2
Even if Bernie or any of the other candidates that favor single payer get elected they still have to pass that radical change to our healthcare system through a decidedly more moderate house and senate. My point is there is no real reason to believe that far-left policies will actually prevail. Trump is a national disaster and needs to go.
1
@Jonathan Buying into the GOP bombast will guarantee 4 more years of Trump making America "great" again. How unfortunate for America and the world.
3
In this day and age of cell phones, who is being polled? I don’t own a land line.
9
@Keith And the response rate. People don't even answer a lot of the calls they get.
1
Also left out are all the Trump voters who hide that they are going to vote for him. That made all the difference in 2016 and very likely will be decisive in 2020. He has been crazy like a fox making Dems defend the far left as by next year it is certain they will have come out with additional crazy resolutions which all Dems will be tied too unfortunately
9
It is July 2019--16 months until the General Election. While this is an insightful column, the information contained may have short shelf life.
4
Democrats are in big trouble. But, as a country, we are all in much bigger trouble.
He will not win.
2
Perez needs to put some resources in these states. If the DNC wants to EVER get people to donate AND vote for a Democratic they need to ACTUALLY start winning.
Silo politics isn’t working. So fire your over paid and incorrect pollsters start hitting the pavement.
Are you for America or the DNC? It is time to decide.
3
Things have not changed, we still have liberals denouncing anyone who claims even faint support for Mr. Trump as a racist combined with the "metropolitan people" who believe "country people" are over-represented in the electoral college. The problem for Democrats is Mr. Trump supporters and country people, rarely given any mention in polls and despite all the name calling, do should up at the polls and they vote.
6
@Mark do you suggest not denouncing racism is the answer?
The Democrats will get nowhere by merely responding to Donald Trump’s tweets all the time. The US Media too is wholly engaged with Donald Trump. The American people will obviously re-Elect Donald Trump when he is permanently setting the National Agenda & has totally engaged the people’s mindspace. Democrats need to Show they can actively pursue & implement alternative National Policies & Programs which obviously benefit ordinary Americans in the States which voted for Trump in 2016.
9
Folks, are you sleepwalking? trump will not be again elected. There is so much evidence of nefarious activities about to emerge, he will not be re-elected. He will be detained for the country’s protection.
3
Sure hope you are right. And the sooner the better we are rid of this iconoclast.
No surprise. Both parties ignored illegal immigration and the border has been open. Now we are inundated plus because of Trump anyone who’s against illegal immigration is often perceived as racist. Untrue. Legal good - illegal bad. It’s not an anyone who gets in can stay situation.
6
@Eric Martinez asylum seekers are legal.
Let’s just say if Trump wins the electoral vote and loses the popular vote by a large amount, the system begins to unravel. The vision of the Founders dies. You could see a Hong Kong scenario or even heaven forbid a popular revolt. The American Revolution was a revolt against monarchial tyranny, let’s remember those echoes if we let a President who views his rule as monarchial and in many ways echoes fascism with intimations of a “master [white] race” win a second term.
6
Dems should speak to every single voter in Texas between now and Nov 2020. Flip Texas and the Republicans cannot win.
4
The Texas Republican Party is well aware that Texas is now a battle and are gearing up to find voters. At the same time they are doing everything they can possibly do to suppress the votes of minorities, young people, poor people.
1
once upon a time, "could" & "might not be" weren't news & papers reported on what was and is...
1
@some Well said.
1
About 190,000,000 people who could have did not vote for Trump in 2016. Why? 70,000,000 voted for someone else. The rest couldn’t be bothered. The opportunity for change lies with them. Those people aren’t engaged. Will free tuition, Medicare for All, a new Wall Street approach, getting rid of trickle down and implementing bottom up do the trick? Trump supporters are engaged and fall in line. Democrats fall in love and in 2016 thought they had the luxury to “send messages” with their vote rather than vote for what would win. But the 120,000,000 getting out to vote is what will bring a Democrat to the White House and turn the government blue. If the NYT wants Trump re-elected, good for the bottom line, bad for the country, keep talking about voters. If you want a change, find out what will engage those that don’t vote.
4
I guess November 6, 2018, never happened - I must have just dreamed that it was the largest midterm victory in U.S. history.
6
Solid analysis and another indication that the Republicans know how to work together in order to achieve their goals, which is to maintain power at any and all costs.
Contrast that with my party. Completely disunited....arguing about out-of-touch, unworkable policies that a vast majority of Americans don't want....adding hyphens to everyone in the country....completely ensconced in their purpose built, self-pitying, crybaby echo chambers trying to come up with yet another idea to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
8
The Electoral College is nothing more and nothing less than presidential election Gerrymandering. What else can you call a process that values the vote of a resident of Wyoming equal to that of 3.66 voters in California? The votes of less densely populated Reich leaning states are almost universally weighted much higher than the more densely urban dominated blue states. And this discrepancy is only getting worse! This article suggests that tTrump could lose the popular vote by 5% or 6-7 million votes and still win the electoral college. This is not democracy! It is managed lunacy!
7
@Jim Porter Jim, I grew up in downstate Illinois. Every Republican there believes that rampant election fraud in Chicago is why they never win elections. No argument changes their mind. In red state America Republicans believe there is rampant fraud in New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia and California and nothing you say will change their mind. They will never agree to a constitutional amendment to go to a popular vote because they believe that those places will create enough votes to swamp anything they do. So, the point is that rather than cry to the sky vote for Democrat candidates who do not have to rely only on Democratic Party base progressives turning out in massive numbers. That means ones with mainstream policies that appeal to the political center. Read what Tom Friedman had to say this week. That is not happening right now in the primary.
1
That's right our votes do not count anymore
4
No possible way he loses in 2020.
4
@Thomas Aquinas
There are plenty of "possible ways he loses" in '20. He can certainly lose Wisconsin, PA and Michigan, and he may lose Arizona and North Carolina as well. Iowa, too, may be in play if the farmers there give up on him. Also, we shouldn't quite yet write off Florida, though he does have the edge there.
7
I have said it before and I will say it again--the Electoral College as it is now applied is obsolete and unrepresentative. It needs to be reformed to more accurately represent the populations of the individual states. Who in their right minds thinks that it is a good idea of giveing the total sum of a state's electoral votes to a candidate who barely won the popular vote in that state? That tells the 49.9% of the voters oif that state: You and yur vote don't count.
7
Their votes count, but for the wrong candidate.
Many comments here express wishful thinking: simple, direct democracy to elect a powerful president with authoritarian power, who will embody and enforce their political and social objectives.
But as a reminder, as codified in the Constitution (which does not contain the word "democracy"), we live in a republic. We also live in a nation comprised of 50 partially autonomous states. The federal government, including the president, represents not just a national population, but 50 separate state populations. Simple national majorities deny this.
So go ahead and wish for a rewrite of the Constitution, but be careful what you ask for. The varying visions of the states allow for some choices in governance. And a strong national leader might be more than frustrating if from the "other side".
7
@Bob Krantz. If the electoral college was fair, there wouldn't be a problem. However. when a vote in Nevada counts more than a vote in NY., this is the president we get.
@Bob Krantz
Most like me want the popular vote to decide the election. Very few want “a powerful president with authoritarian power”.
@leftrightmiddle
How do you figure that? Nevada has six electoral votes. New York has 29.
1
If there was ever a reason to abolish the electoral college system this article points it out.
This country needs - one person, one vote. Majority rules, period.
9
@Steven
Had the Electoral College been abolished prior to the War of Succession aka Civil War many Americans now would be living in the Confederate States of America. And millions upon millions of Blacks would have remained far down the economic and social ladders of achievement.
This electoral analysis is well grounded. It is concerning that President Trump could lose the popular vote by 5% and still win the Electoral College.
Democrats have a complex math problem. What policies should be advocated to win these 310 electoral college votes? Medicare-for-All could turn off ~150 million Americans with commercial health insurance. How will Democrats put more money is the average American's wallet? I could go on. No matter how well meaning, expensive new programs can be interpreted as less money in my wallet.
The proposed answer to this math problem will determine whether we have another unfortunate four years of Donald Trump.
5
@Stephen Agree entirely
It’s so maddening that the votes of the majority of people in this country don’t count, and at the end of the day it’s only voters in a few states whose votes count. For the 2000/2004 elections, the major swing state was Ohio, where my parents lived, and they said they were practically harassed with campaign calls and flyers and mailers. I received no such courting in NY. The electoral college should be abolished so nominees have to appeal to as many Americans as possible.
13
The Democratic candidates this far being pushed to the front by MSM will not be able to win at this point. Biden was in the best position to do this at the outset, but his raising his hand at giving taxpayer funded healthcare to illegal immigrants and his swing further left have poisoned that chance. The Democratic candidate needs to pull centrist and moderate voters. The idea that we can win with a new wave of young idealistic voters is a failing one. It basically sidelines the entirety of the moderate voting block, which is the biggest voting block. It also ignores that recent studies have found that young up and coming voters of the latest generation are leaning centrist or slightly conservative. This makes sense given the number of young people who are becoming self starters through online business. They favor lower taxes on businesses and lower taxes in general because it benefits them and their business. The Democratic candidates have moved further left in an effort to attract record young votes that they likely mistakenly believe will favor a more leftist political leaning, when in reality they will favor a more centrist position. That would explain why Tulsi Gabbard and Yang are polling well amongst centrists and young voters. The issue is that these two are outsiders who don't sit well with the establishment DNC. I'm afraid that the Democratic party will lose.
8
@Steffen
When Joe Wilson shouted "You Lie" at Obama when he stated no illegal aliens would get ObamaCare it was shocking. Not only because he yelled it at the President but also because it seemed so absurd that anyone would think that.
For many years the Republicans have called the Democrats the "loony left". We Democrats have had to defend and explain why that was not true. So it's been quite a shock for most of us to realize that they were right all along. How did this happen so quickly to the Democratic Party?
9
@William
There is a phenomenon called "Creeping Normalcy". It states that as long as somethig happens gradually, we won't notice it but in extreme instances. We've been so conditioned to diametrically oppose "the other side/wrong side" that we weren't taking a hard look at our own side. The news media hasn't helped. Studies have shown that most MSM is liberal leaning and that they don't follow the other side, they just listen to each other. This has created an echo chamber in media that instead of hearing the Conservative, moderate and centrist arguments, has instead heard each others "views" on those arguments. This means that they have heard, spead and believe the most egregious interpretations of the opposing views because outrage sells better than news and truth.
I'm afraid that this has been happening for a while and it is only with the arrival of AOC and the "Squad" that the movement has been kicked into high gear for everyone to see.
5
Last election Trump lost the popular vote by as much as 3 million votes. 2020 could see him lose the popular vote by as much as 5 million votes and still win the election.....
@Cantgitright
Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million. Hillary won California by 4 million.
How many states would be content to let California decide every presidential election for the foreseeable future?
1
If this analysis is based on the 2018 polling, then it likely seriously understates the President's strength. Why? Because these polls don't reflect the impact of the more radical plans espoused by the current flock of Democrat candidates. The end of private health insurance, open borders, free college for all and free HC for all illegal immigrants are all recently sworn to positions by almost all of the major candidates. None of those policies will play well in the mid-west.
10
@Michael you're absolutely right. These are positions taken because the DNC seems to think that they can abandon the centrist and moderate voting block in an appeal to young voters, but it ignores the recent studies that show young voters moving more moderate and centrist in recent years. They favor fixing healthcare but not healthcare for all or government run healthcare. They also favor the conservative view of lower taxes, and everyone knows healthcare for all means more taxes.
4
@SteffenActually the DNC has made the problem worse, not be advocating a shift left--they don't want that-- but by being so hack handed in their dealings with the emerging left (who deserve respect for their accomplishments) that they have helped discredit a more moderate approach.
2
The Electoral College prevents a tyranny of the majority, and that is a good thing.
7
@Barbara
Maybe, but it allows for a tyranny of the minority over the majority, not any better!
4
@Barbara
There's one thing way worse than tyranny by the majority, and that's tyranny by the minority. And by the way, "tyranny by the majority" is also known as democracy.
9
@Barbara There's a measure of truth to that, but a tyranny of the minority has its own problems.
Democrat or Republican, if you are among the 80 percent of Americans who live outside a swing state, your vote for president does not count. And if you are a Democrat in any state at all, your vote may not count even if the majority of the nation’s voters go your way.
6
@Marty
Supporters of Pres. Trump living in a solid Democratic State like Connecticut effectively have no vote at all.
Are we forever disenfranchised ? Maybe. But those well disposed to support Republican candidates can still contribute to the national effort. Courtesy of the Electoral College such contributions would not be all in vain. That’s some consolidation living in the nation’s only State with a stagnant economy for an entire decade under Democratic leadership.
4
Prof Krugman made the point Trump economy argument peaked early. The tax cut stimulus has been undone by the tariffs hurting the economy. The inverted yield curve of bonds predicts a recession. If the trend is down then Trump could be toast.
I thought Biden a Democrat nominee with Sen. Harris as VP was the strongest ticket, but that looks unlikely unless Biden admits his anti-busing views were wrong, and Harris can forgive and accept a VP slot. Meanwhile Trump will keep saying and doing things to rile Democrats and decent independents. More revelations of Trump's corrupt tax fraud and insurance fraud will surface. If the courts rule Obamacare is gone due to the tax mandate being killed by the GOP then Democrats will have a great issue to beat Trump for ending millions having health insurance coverage.
I still hope that Trump loses for the sake of decency and democracy in the U.S.
11
@Michael
And Krugman has been so right since Trump took office... NOT.
He predicted a complete economic meltdown after Trump won. The exact opposite has happened.
1
If this analysis is based on the 2018 polling, then it likely seriously understates the President's strength. Why? Because these polls don't reflect the impact of the more radical plans espoused by the current flock of Democrat candidates. The end of private health insurance, open borders, free college for all and free HC for all illegal immigrants are all recently sworn to positions by almost all of the major candidates. None of those policies will play well in the mid-west.
3
Electoral college doesn’t have to vote him in. They chose to last time. Remember. ?
3
One person, one vote! The electoral college is antiquated. We need direct democracy.
1 vote in Wyoming = 4 votes in California
7
@Erin V
We hold fifty different elections every four years, not one national one.
Wyoming has only 3 electoral votes. California has 55.
It's not the fault of the Electoral College when a state decides to vote lockstep for one party.
2
So overpopulated states should always be the arbiter of the country?
1
The national Democratic Party has all but abandoned states like Alabama, despite our “almost purple” demographics. When we have actual field offices and “get out the vote” efforts, the difference is unbelievable.
The republicans have a long-term 50-state strategy. The Democrats need to improve their game, and their message. Buttigieg understands how to talk about values, faith and community, and personal responsibility. If candidates want to win in the heartland, they need to visit and listen.
10
This possibility only highlights the lunacy of the electoral college. We need to amend Constitution to allow for direct plurality vote of President. This also underscores why Democrats during campaign must not go too far left with their proposals. Free college for all or reparations for blacks who are descendants of slaves may sound nice and even laudable but they iwill only alienate moderates and independents. Bernie type progressives will vote for whoever Democratic candidate as they all want Trump out. Let's not forget that winning back the Senate may actually be as or more critical. If Democrats controlled Senate they could impeach Trump if he were reelected and they could actually pass some of their legislation. Perhaps even more important is that they have say over federal judiciary and all other appointments that require Senate confirmation. Even now if Trump did not have Mitch McConnell and Republican controlled Senate, he'd be a toothless tiger. Everyone who doesn't like Trump needs to vote straight Democratic ticket at federal, state and local level.That woul6be a real revolution that would make Bernie proud.
2
Apparently there is no way we can get rid of the Electoral College before 2020. But electors can do their job and vote against someone unfit for office - like Trump - like they should have done in 2016.
5
If the democrats don’t reel in the outrage and start producing tangible plans for immigration and securing our borders, I fear Trump may win again.
Health care for the undocumented in California is difficult to understand for many. Let’s update our immigration system and start to deal with the millions who are here illegally.
7
Trump like the Dems, have confused immigration policy with racism. Trump's views appear racist, while the effectively Open B orders of the Dems, whatever is the opposite of Trump, is leading to an increasing tide of immigrants / refugeees.
But a part of the issue is both ecology and dealing with symptoms, not causes. Open Borders and the bleeding heart compassion pumped through the liberal media, doesn't address the causes of immigration / refugees. And it overlooks the high likelihood that more, many more, poor desperate people will try to come to the US as refugees.
The source of the problem isn't being addressed. Lack of women's rights, lack of family planning, overlooking ecological issues of land care, inept and corrupt local govt, and archaic cultures that have worshipped large families are factors to the refugee crisis. If these issues are not addressed locallly, the refugees surge will increase. So helping a few hundred thousand of refugees at the border every few months is not touching the source of the problem.
The Dems policy should be to help people locally. ANd to limit the growing tide of immigrants and refugees. Why??
The US already has 50 million people below the poverty line, declining quality in public schools, a medical crisis for those not in company plans, a housing crisis, a debt crisis, high taxes and a low level of job opportunities for young people already here.
So the US is full, full of people, full of huge problems of poverty already.
An
5
@Paul
There is no open borders policy by either party.
4
@LibertyLover
The position of no enforcement of deportations, elimination of ICE and CBP, and providing benefits to illegal immigrants is at the very least, tacit "Open borders" policy being pushed by AOC, Omar and most of the Democratic presidential hopefuls.
3
@Paul
If the US is full where will the increasing natural born population live? It's an old argument. The US population will continue to grow with a mixture of immigrants and natural born persons.
The issues you mentioned are not worsened by immigrants.. they are the result of the failure of our government to deal with them.
1
It's clear that if Democrats dont acknowledge the need to secure the boarders then they will most certainly lose again.
11
@Mark Patrick they have repeatedly acknowledged this. They knowingly say a wall will not fix this issue and those who work at the border agree. They support more money for other ways to improve border security.
1
One wonders if the Democrats even want to win the presidency?
If so, their curious ways of attempting to topple Trump by many of their strange and bizarre positions and accusations, against basically the majority of the country, would lead one to question that they really want to!
While the supposed Gulf War was supposed to be a “cakewalk”, instead of the quagmire it became, re-election looks more and more like the real deal.
Good luck to whomever you may be on the Democratic side!
You’re “gonna” need it, and divine intervention.
3
@John Birman what’s strange or bizarre about calling out racism?
Trump can’t seem to form coherent sentences half the time and the pathological lying is unstoppable- and yet the Dems have bizarre accusations?
Sorry, but the electability mantra still being espoused by our national leadership is out of step with our current reality.
In the days before Donald Trump, could you ever imagine a nativist goon like Ron DeSantis getting elected to lead the state of Florida? Yet here we are. People are reacting against this kind of politics—and you cannot answer it with a milquetoast moderate.
Ironically it’s BECAUSE of Trump that progressives and their programs now have maybe the best shot at a national agenda than they’ve ever had. People are looking for an antidote to the far right policies coming out of the White House and many dittohead state houses. It is only the left that is delivering popular and workable solutions on healthcare, gun violence, economic stagnation and our schools. We want action, not more talk and more studies that produce papers. If the DNC goes with an 80s style moderate, they can kiss 2020 goodbye.
3
The Electoral College, as I understand, was put in place to keep a person without capacity from assuming the presidency, as it would overwhelm there capacity, or prevent them from exerting villainous outcomes.
Based on performance you all, and the rest of the world are in a heap o' mess. Best to have a come to Jesus moment....
2
@Colin
That's not the reason the Electoral College was put in place.
It was put in place because, in their wisdom, the Founding Fathers realized the union of states would not last if Virginia (the largest population by far) was deciding every presidential election.
At the time the union of states was being created, Virginia would have disenfranchised all the smaller states of the Northeast (in population and geography) and the smaller states would not have joined.
I despair of the lack of civics and history education in our schools...
1
Over the past few weeks, ‘progressives’ have been arguing vehemently against the census citizenship question because the citizenship question isn’t embodied in the articles of ‘The Constitution’. ‘The Constitution’ is, after all, the final arbiter.
But oops. Guess what IS embodied within ‘The Constitution’. That’s right....the Electoral College. And as ‘progressives’ have recently reminded us: ‘The Constitution’ is the final arbiter.
5
The analysis here is solid. However, the *story* buries the lede, and comes across as far too pessimistic. The headline is particularly misleading.
The real takeaway: "The president’s approval rating was beneath 50 percent in states worth 310 electoral votes: the states carried by Hillary Clinton, along with Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona and North Carolina."
The story also admits that his polarizing approach on immigration is as likely to alienate moderates on the fence as to mobilize additional support... and I'd say *more* likely, given the evidence of this week.
I'm convinced that his support has a hard ceiling, and this analysis supports that. It's technically true that "The president’s relative advantage in the Electoral College could grow even further in a high-turnout election," but the key word there is *relative*... the study's projections show a modest bump in two states as turnout exceeds 60%, but at no point does it actually take him above 50% support in *any* state... and at the anticipated 70% turnout, his support drops *everywhere*, and we're looking at a blue wave.
Why the article is framed as such a dire warning when its forecast is actually encouraging, I don't know. It's wise not to take anything for granted... but it's also wise not to be running scared, especially if it could boost a too-cautious candidate in the primaries. What this analysis really shows is that most of the electorate is chomping at the bit to repudiate this guy.
6
In terms of Florida's electorate, does the current polling include those who emigrated from Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria?
They are citizens who are entitled to vote in the 2020 election, and many of whom will never forget the paper-towel throwing dotard who has repeatedly insulted them and denied or delayed funding for rebuilding the island.
Many of them arrived outside of the registration date for voting in 2018, thus the result in Florida then may not augur as well for the GOP in 2020.
If, in fact, Florida is one of the major tipping point states, the sample that is used in polling should include their political opinions now.
Of course, the current controversial restrictions imposed in Florida regarding restoring voting rights to former felons (that was approved by 65% of voters in 2018) may or may not have an impact. Nonetheless, this is another segment of the Florida electorate that should be included in current polling there.
These factors may have an important impact on Florida's results in the 2020 election and should be incorporated into any polling currently taking place.
14
It's an excellent look into the details of how the numbers are spread out across states, not at all what most people assume. However, in an analysis of close contests in these states I found it shocking that the critical roll of vote suppression was not addressed. Both the GA and FL governor races last year were likely stolen from the majority through these tactics. They are effective and will be used wherever possible and without restraint.
22
It is a good strategy not to underestimate Trump as was the case in the last elections. I believe both parties have gotten so extreme that they have left a vacuum at the center of American politics. If anyone, including a third party, captures that center they have a good chance to win.
5
@AlRo
A center oriented, third party candidate ensures Trump’s re-election, as they split the moderate and left votes.
The right votes in lock step. After 92, they will never create a situation that leads to their defeat.
I am wondering if his analysis is somewhat flawed. First of all, he only looked at 2016 results but ignored the two previous presidential elections in 2008 and 2012. How did Obama won the electoral college in both elections? Is it possible that the Democratic Party can have a nominee like Obama who can win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Florida? The long term demographic change of the country favors the Democrats and will continue so.
Secondly, the author used Trump’s approval rating as the key measure of his electability. However, that is only part of the equation. The Democratic Party doesn’t have a nominee yet. An election is decided on the comparison of two individuals and what they each represent. If the Democrats can nominate someone who can win in those critical states like Obama did, we can beat Trump. The nominee is very important and I don’t think Warren, Harris, Sanders are the answers. It would be either Buttigieg or Biden.
13
The electoral college is ridiculous, defeating the one man-one vote principle that is supposed to reign in a democracy. We have to keep focused. If the Democrats are going to win, they must win back the Rust Belt states and they must choose a candidate who is best suited to do that. Although there is no stand out, Joe Biden is probably in the best position to do this.
16
@LAM you should study the history of this country more in depth. We are not a democracy, but a Republic. The electoral college was put in place by men smarter than You or I, specifically to not allow powerful city centers to basically influence the entire country.
4
Whatever Democrats think should change in the manner in which a new president is elected, "should" is not part of the picture for the next presidential election. We will have to deal with gerrymandering and an Electoral College. That is why it is so important that the Democrats focus on candidates who may be acceptable to Republican as well as Democratic voters. Frothing at the mouth, anti Trump candidates with strong socialistic ideals may appeal to many liberal Democrats, but they are anathema to more conventional and conservative voters, who fear raising taxes and radical changes to the social order. As outrageous as many of Trump's statements and actions may seem, an emotional appeal to those who find Trump unacceptable may not be the best strategy to turn the country around and elect a more responsible replacement.
18
@Eric S
The election should always be a referendum on the incumbent.
There is more to be gained by getting out your own voters than trying to convince people who are a long shot.
1
Dear Democrats: Please don’t give up! I’m an independent who feels that Trump is the single biggest problem that our country currently faces, and I’m relying on y’all to keep it together and get him out of there in 2020. (I wish that it could be done using a truly centrist, perhaps even independent candidate, but that’s not the way it works in our lamentable electoral system.) This guy’s not magic, he’s not fated to win - get your game faces on, put up someone who can beat him, and let’s end nonsense!
26
We have perhaps 16 months at best to demand and effect a change in the electoral college, i.e., either its apportionment by percentage of votes within each state or, better, its abolition. If that doesn't happen, I fear the rapid coming of the kind of America that we fought a revolution not to have, that we wrote a constitution to prevent and that we sacrificed thousands of lives in world wars to keep away from our shores. And now we are being eaten away by a cancer from within, which is Trump and his oligarchs, corporate cronies and adversarial foreign supporters.
Let me add that election worries could be rendered moot by what I fear even more: a suspension of civil liberties and/or the election itself under the guise of some "foreign attack" or other contrived instance created by the Trumpists for just such scenario. To prevent this - and worse - we as a country still have time to use our system of checks and balances to restrain and contain the oncoming destruction of our nation from within. But members of both parties must see the light and act, and I think Republicans in congress and other elected offices have been hamstrung somehow into blind allegiance to this disgraceful administration. I beg them to be Americans first - or they will be the last Americans as we know them to hold office.
4
If Trump is re-elected you might find a big exodus from the USA.
I will be one of them. Another four years of this criminal will end our country as we knew it, and I can't take it/him any more.
This is the most depressing op- ed I've seen in many moons.
19
@pkay
If everyone who promised to leave if Trump won in 2016 he’d win in a landslide in 2020. Work to get out the vote and help your candidate get elected. That’s the America that people from all over the world choose to come to.
2
@pkay Exodus to where ? Sweden, Germany, Japan, Iraq ?
Three things seem to be “for sure” in this election;
- Obama was a vigorous, impressive campaigner. Hillary Clinton? Not so much (see Wisconsin). The energy that is generated by the candidate sets the tempo. The Democratic Party must nominate someone that is up to the task of being everywhere, all the time, like Obama was.
- Healthcare is just as potent of a campaign issue as taxation. Many politicians gave their political lives for the ACA. Get mature about it and stop talking about single-payer as the only option. Too complicated, too scary. Talk about regulating the heck out of costs and lowering drug prices. People hate uncertainty and talk of a total restructuring plays right into GOP hands.
- Unless you are a die-hard Trump fan, it is plain as day that he and his entire cabinet are not up to the job. It has been apparent from day one. People that were so graciously willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt in 2016 have literally hundreds of reasons not to in 2020.
21
Thank you for publishing a document that clearly defines the U.S. method for selecting president as antiquated, undemocratic and, dare I say corrupt.
What more evidence do you all need to convene a constitutional convention and eliminate the EC?
Oh, wait, the very beneficiaries of this system will never agree to give up their tyrannical hold on political power in the U.S.. You can't even agree on other important issues such as health care, immigration and taxation.
19
I wonder if it's even baser than we think. People vote for Trump because they're angry and attracted to anger. It doesn't matter who the target is, as long as there's something to rage about. He's the candidate of road rage, frothing at the mouth interspersed with self indulgence.
23
Between now and the election the economy is more likely to get worse than to get better. If this happens Democrats will get a Trump slump bump that might get them over the hump.
If the Russians find a way to directly manipulate voting machines and vote totals (not unlikely given the apparent lack of interest in a secure election) then none of it matters and Trump is a shoo-in.
7
If Trump wins, we will face a civil war. If Trump loses and does not relinquish power, claiming the election had been rigged against him, we will face another civil war. Same war, same enemies, same fear.
11
@Sky Pilot Who will be fighting in this Civil War ? With the unemployment rate at 3.5% very few will have time to dig foxholes, dig trenches, march from city to city, drive supply trucks and cook food for all the combatants.
2
If the popular vote swings even more toward the 2020 Dem nominee than it did toward Gore and Clinton, but Trump retains the WH anyway, I think the sentiment will shift away from Resist, and to Revolt, especially if yet another SCOTUS seat is in play.
11
@Joe as a fellow Californian, I say go for it champ!
Don't worry, folks. The same pundits and especially the same clueless, craven corporate media that declared Trump couldn't win in 2016 (who could forget Maggie Haberman and George Stephanopolous at Keith Ellison's warning to that effect in 2015), now don't see how Trump can lose in 2020.
12
With all the help Trump is getting from Democratic candidates he might well win by a bigger margin, and if he does whoa Nelly watch out. Identity politics is a net loser when the largest demographic is voting for the other guy. Might be time for a Bullock or a Bennet.
8
I personally don’t think Trump stands a chance getting re-elected.
Honestly how can a majority of women for for such a scallywag? His past will only get worse as time goes on.
In four years since 2016 there are a number of young voters who are now of age to vote while the flip side is there are a number of people who have simply passed on because of old age. Trump does not have the appeal of the youth vote and the GOP know full well this is a huge problem.
Lastly there are the voters who did not vote in ‘16 whether lazy or disengaged but that will change.
The media, the television media especially loves this. It brings in viewers but most people are not political junkies like you and I and won’t even take notice of the election for 14 months and it will be a different picture then.
This is all fluff for us junkies to dwell on.
5
@Hans. Unfortunately, a lot of women will vote for him—ones from patriarchal, conservative religious families. It’ll either be because they’ve been taught that a man should be in that role, or that outlawing abortion is the only thing that matters, or both.
2
Or as is the case with my wife it's in their economic interest.
I will say this for the Trump presidency, I’ve learned a bit about myself. Specifically, I had no idea I could find a human being so utterly detestable.
I’m ready to crawl over broken glass to cast my vote for whoever ends up being the Dem candidate. I can’t a stand a minute more with Trump.
40
I sincerely hope that Talib, OAC, Omar and Pressley do not hush up or stifle their messages. As a matter of fact I sincerely hope they increase their level of rhetoric and well-reasoned commentary. America needs to see and hear more from the new face of the Democratic party not less.
8
So some interests are not important? I could not disagree more. To disenfranchise virtually all red states to promote the wishes of New England and the west coast could be very dangerous to the country. In all probability they would likely have no reason to even vote, throwing the election even further into disarray. Over time this disparity will eventually benefits the Democrats and when that happens I can assure you that you will be singing a different tune.
5
@Confused. You seem to think that a state is an entity that should be equal in power to any other state, and this makes no sense. Would you give Texas and Rhode Island equal power in government?
What happened to the notion of “one person, one vote”? How is this unfair?
2
Your statement makes no sense. Each state is coequal. Because of population density we have the EC. Without it candidates would never court voters from sparsely populated states.
1
@Jordan F
I do not believe you understand a basic concept: We do not have a country of one person one vote; states count as well. I am simply suggesting that we are the United STATES. If you propose that we end the system of STATES then lets change the constitution and eliminate them. i believe you would have a serious problem on your hands if we did that.
1
The article makes clear that Election Day needs to be a national holiday or polls stay open till midnight like on tax day. Failing that, the democrats need their candidates to just show up and not take their base for granted.
7
@Solomon. Yes, or mandatory voting that is only done via paper ballot by mail.
We can’t fix gerrymandering or the Electoral College by the next election, but we possibly could do something about increasing vote-by-mail ballots, especially posed as a way to counteract Russian election meddling.
3
So many comments are "Nate, you've traumatized me" (so what? hurt feelings don't win states) and "the electoral college has to go" (so get the votes to change it). Is it really so impossible to defeat an odious president who polls below 50% in most states?
Obvious solution: tailor your platform for the swing states, not the deep blue bubbles.
18
Where there is poverty and socialist programs transferring money from wealthier states to poorer states, there is where you find the greatest support for Trump. The GOP started revenue sharing propping up all these poverty stricken areas and if Democrats will stop that, the Democrats win.
2
@Michael Laval-Lindley: Not sure what you're getting at here. The poorer states that benefit the most from this kind of thing are, far and away, the red states where majorities supported Trump. How would Dems taking away those benefits (not that they're in a position to anyway) conceivably win them over?
1
It's all about the message and how it's delivered. Trump has a singular and simple message. His base buys into it. And they vote.
Frankly the only Dems I've seen with clear messages are Tulsi and Marianne. You may not like that but there are many Dems, Independents and even a few Reps who are listening.
Maybe what will happen is that Dems who vote won't listen to the talking heads who kept telling us that it was laughable that Trump could ever be elected.
3
The Democrats are going to sink themselves on higher taxes and too much governmental control. Biden’s insistence on a mandate means the government will be able to force you to subsidize other people who are otherwise uninsurable and to pay for their abortions. We’re not going back to that nor can we afford health care for illegals. Under Sanders’ Medicare for all you’ll have to pick a number and wait in line. The rest of the Democratic pack is backing away from that but the impression is that they can’t be trusted. Health care might seem to be a winning issue but it’s a sword Democrats will fall on.
8
@Edwardpp
Look up single payer health insurance in Google. That will relieve you of your misconceptions. The only thing that changes is that the government pays your medical bills instead of a private insurance company.
1
@Edwardpp
We pay for illegals already. Hospitals and doctors are bound to do so, ethically, and by law. We have to accept this and account for it.
@Edwardpp. We already pay for healthcare for “illegals”. It’s called emergency rooms. And it would be cheaper for us to pay for regular and preventative healthcare for these people.
My vote didn’t count last time. Will it count in the next election?
2
So, the upshot of all these words is that the incumbent might win in a race still many, many months in the future against a candidate who hasn't been identified if the economy does not weaken appreciably. Do I have that right? So sorry, but I am not trusting these deep dive data models after what happened in 2016. Get back to us when someone knows something.
8
I must confess even as a liberal that it's starting to sicken me seeing people continuously blame the electoral college. The solution consisting of the genius idea, removing the electoral college, like that could happen before the next election. Fairy tales are fun, but you need realistic solutions. No one had a problem with the college when Obama won, not a one of you would care if he didnt also get the popular vote in order to win the election fair and square. The game is the game, you dont flip the board when you're losing unless you're unhinged. Find a way to win, even if that means supporting a Democrat that is a little more to the right on select issues like securing boarders. look at Australia, the Labor party (left) had to adopt the same position as conservatives to stop illegal immigration (boat ppl dying on route) or face total wipe out at elections, and so they did. It worked. To beat Trump you need to be more flexible and strategic, you have a lot if leeway with the base, they arent ever voting trump, so aim for those center vote/right votes in the messaging. Democrats need to unify around being strong on boarders to counter Trump. their language can be stronger than their actions but say it or lose again.
22
The unemployment for minorities is at a 50 year low and the Democrats need their votes to win. While many minorities might not vote for President Trump they are being given little reason to return the Democrats to power. Retirees have seen the Dow Jones go from 19,600 to 27,000+ so they have little reason to vote for Democrats. Many taxpayers pay less in tax (not to be confused with refunds)--net tax is lower. So all the Democrats have is "we hate President Trump"--if you recall that approach did not work for Clinton.
9
@Jonathan This is an informed, level headed, sensible, succinct analysis contrary to much of the other blather about "civil war" from other commentators.
"and it might blunt any electoral cost of actions like his recent tweets attacking four minority congresswomen."
His criticisms of them were a risky gambit, but what too many media pundits just don't want to accept is by baiting "the squad", Trump basically just caused the Democrats to rally around Ilhan Omar, painting her as a good example of what the DNC stands for, and also the kind of person that the DNC wants to see more of immigrating to our shores.
Couple that with the first couple of Democratic primary debates with their promises for decriminalization of border crossing, and universal healthcare for which illegal immigrants are eligible, and you have pretty much guaranteed a Trump victory in 2020.
It's pretty bad for the democrats when they are supposed to be the smart party, and they are being outwitted by a buffoon who has never finished a book in his life.
7
As things stand by now, Trump will win hands down. This is why:
1. The economy is booming and the employment numbers are down to historic levels.
2. Mostly, what worries people are their pockets thus reinforcing point one.
3. Even while sounding threatening, America won’t go to war soon. It might change but I don’t see the president going in that direction
4. On most issues of international trade, Trump is putting up a fight against Chinese trade practices. He has found acceptance at home on this.
5. Inside the country, there is a tiredness against immigration, even when sounding undiplomatic while addressing the issue, he will find positive acceptance on the fact that immigration needs to be tackled head on.
6. The Democrats are digging their own grave with things like healthcare for all within the boundaries. This sounds great for all Americans. But imagine this, it might threaten those who think the system cares even for those who haven’t paid into it. Judging by the way Americans reason, they are against a system of that kind and are rebranding it as #socialism. While not right, those with feeble minds will feel threatened and vote for the incumbent.
7. The democratic contenders are of a wide range representing a variety of ideologies. The winner will emerge so beaten that all the reasons used in the primaries shall be tabled nationwide. This gives an advantage to Trump.
Thus, better the devil you know, and as such Trump will win albeit with a softened message
5
Trump is there because he 'says', not necessarily 'does', what his voters want, versus what they think the Democrats would be doing. It wouldn't matter if Trump were a chimpanzee, they would vote for him even if they wouldn't let him near their teenage daughter. This would all be fine, democracy in action, except they don't understand what Trump and the oligarchs of the GOP are actually doing. They and their children will find out, long after they can do anything about it.
4
The Electoral College should be altered to accomplish fair and just elections and to make certain that Donald Trump is not elected President by less than half of the nation's population.
As an alternative to the current method of determining Electoral College delegates, the allocation of presidential electors by each state should be based on the relative popular vote garnered by the top two popular vote recipients.
Individual state legislatures determine how the Electors to the Electoral College are appointed: “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the state may be entitled in the Congress.” (U.S. Constitution, Article II, Section 1.)
A constitutional amendment would not be required in order to make the proposed change in method. In 1996, the current "winner take all" method of allocating each state’s total Electors for the Electoral College vote for President was then determined without a constitutional amendment.
Rural and small states would retain their disproportionate weight in the election of the President as provided in the Constitution. But, importantly, “swing states” with registered Democrat and Republican voters in substantially equal proportion would no longer be so disproportionately important in the in the outcome of the presidential election. This change would also lead to presidential candidates campaigning nationwide.
13
@David Lockmiller Like the idea of each state allocating their electors predicated upon a pro rate share of the national vote. This is a great opportunity for California to lead and be the first adopter.
6
Love it. Don’t like the rules because you didn’t win? Change them so you do. Nice!
1
@Ross Burns
I am interested in every citizen's vote counting equally, now and in the future.
Are you for or against that concept?
Trump could triumph in 2020 as long as he does not let the escalation of the dire situation around Iran does not escalate in a full scale war. As an independent not opening any new full scale wasteful war is of utmost importance. As far as the Trump derangement syndrome, it is certainly possible that those who were inflicted by it, will remain resolute in not voting for Trump and the question is where will the new voters come from. Will it be those who found employment after Trump's election in 2016?
7
Mr. Cohn's analysis is very interesting, but it leaves out two important factors: Republican voter suppression and Republican gerrymandering. In states with Republican-dominated legislatures, both factors can overcome pro-Democratic party voting tendencies.
For example, in Florida last year, over 66% of the state's voters approved a state referendum restoring voting rights to ex-felons. This would add more than 1 million voters to the roles, most probably voting Democratic. Yet the Republican-dominated state legislature is blocking the implementation of this referendum. The addition of the ex-felon voting block could decisively swing Florida into the Democratic column.
Another fear is that an electoral college victory that spites a large voting majority for Democrats - for the third time in 20 years - will decisively damage the Constitution. The voting majority will be furious at the thwarting of their will and the continuance of a "tyranny of the minority". This is potentially the stuff of civil war and represents a situation unforeseen by the Founders. Attention must be paid to this threat to our Constitutional and civil order.
40
@JKing
This is the stuff of civil war. The mood and tone of our country now is sounding like the decade before the actual Civil War. I don't know if it gets to that point of violence, in fact I doubt it, but it could certainly irreversibly damage our institutions. What we have now is a long running culture war that is getting much worse in the past few years.
Culture wars don't end well, even if they don't lead to a civil war.
3
Gotta love it. Another person acknowledges that felons would reliably vote for Democrats. Nice correlation.
3
To my eyes Mr. Cohn's piece is very plausible analysis. But nonetheless I think we have to be careful to miss seeing the forest for the trees: Trump is presiding over an economy at full employment and even a modest bit of median wage growth, and yet the narrative we're seeing fifteen months before the election is that he appears eminently beatable. No serious observer of US politics thought Democrats had a shot at defeating Ronald Reagan in 1984, or that Republicans had much of a chance of prevailing over Bill Clinton in 1996. Incumbent US presidents benefiting from benign economic conditions are typically fairly heavy favorites to win reelection. But Trump at best appears (at this juncture, at least) to be only a modest favorite (if he's even favored at all).
Mr. Cohn rightly points out some reasons Democrats shouldn't be overconfident about next year's election. And make no mistake, if there is ZERO palpable weakening of the economy (call it 2.5% + GDP growth in the first half of 2020), Trump has to be at least a modest favorite. And if there's a strengthening trend (call it 3% +), I reckon Trump goes from "modest" to "fairy comfortable" favorite.
But clearly this president is very vulnerable indeed to even a slight dip in the economy. I seriously doubt it will require a full-blown recession to make Trump a one-termer.
19
As a centrist Republican (there are a few of us left) I am not surprised my Mr. Cohen's conclusions as much to my disappointment the Democratic nominee is going to be highly bruised from the primary process rather than strengthened and the lower percentage of participants in the primaries are mostly leftward tending in their political philosophy.
While unions are good for 2-4% in a closely contested primary I am not sure that will be enough to push Biden over the top.
If President Trump were to choose a different running mate, say Nikki Haley, it might help inoculate him against the likely reluctance of woman to support him. VP Pence seems like the kind of chap who would step aside for the good of his party.
Thus, if the change of the running mate issue were to unfold as I think it will and the Democrat nominee is pulled strongly to the left and saddled with an running mate such as Senator Harris who is viewed as strongly anti-catholic (there are 45 million of us current and another 40 million not-practicing) then Biden if his is the nominee would have a difficult path.
Thus, while the game is not over yet, I would bet that the President is reelected and if Amb. Haley is his running mate she would be a shoe in in 2024.
Sorry to reach these conclusions but it is hard to argue facts.
W
19
@Wright Since when is Pence going to step aside? I understand he has plans to eventually run for President himself. Also, I think the Democratic primary process will strengthened the nominee rather than weaken them.
10
I heard it hypothesized that Trump might replace Mike Pence with Ivanka. If he were to win in 2020, he then could resign mid-second-term and she could still run twice after that, potentially giving Trumps control of the White House for years to come.
1
@Wright
Taking 2. Plus years to elect a Pres. Is insanity. We could do it and do it right in 3 months....to think we have 15 more months of this . Why do we do this to ourselves?
Too much money to be made on the process for any chance of getting things changed.
If trump is re-elected makes me even more glad I am in the last years of my life. The sadness at having to accept what our country is at its core would be overwhelming as well as my anger at all those in DC letting trump destroy our country .
1
I don't remember any democratic candidate who has uttered a word about changing the voting system to a direct mandate for the presidential election. (or some alternative to the electoral college)
Does anyone else?
5
@NYTpicker It is happening at the state level with already about 180 electoral votes of the 270 needed obligated to vote their electoral votes with the national popular vote as soon as the approval of the Interstate Compact reaches 270 electoral votes.
14
@NYT picker in MA, good point regarding a move to a direct mandate. I live in a highly populated stare with a strong economic base. I feel as though we are now experiencing a tyranny of the minority and many of us are sick of it. Republicans are winning because of gerrymandering and we know it but look at what happens when they do lose-they won’t give up power easily if at all - look to North Carolina and the office of governor. A democratic governor stripped of power by a republican state legislature because they refused to accept the votes/will of the people of the state. Enough is enough.
4
Why would they need to? Unlike Republicans, Democrats win elections by getting more votes.
I understand none of this rhetoric. We have known the GOP since Atwater Ailes Nixon Reagan and the Southern Strategy. Does anyone not really understand why Reagan had a campaign stop in Philadelphia Mississippi or why Roy Moores and Louie Gohmerts get elected?
I don't when or who is responsible for the belief that Americans can't handle the truth but forty years of morning in America is headed for a big collision with reality and we will find out whether or not Americans can handle the truth.
22
@Montreal Moe
Roy Moore didn't get elected.
Thank you for this cogent analysis. Republicans are simply better politicians than Democrats in our society. They are much worse as American citizens concerned for our country, its citizens, our place in the hemisphere and opportunities to be a positive influence in the world. BUT they can out politic a Democrat with one hand tied behind their racist back. Democrats keep running after the shiny objects falling out of AOC's mouth.
33
@Stomach acid : That's a pretty fair analysis of the situation. The truth hurts. Ouch.
@Stomach acid The Republican Party has become the party of liars, swindlers, frauds and denial of the right to vote almost as bad as when there was a poll tax or Blacks were asked to sign their name with a pen that couldn't write on the paper used. Even Richard Nixon would be disillusioned with today's Republican Party.
If Democrats can get Trump elected twice, I got no sympathy for them.
24
@DanP Save your sympathy for something else. None of us will need it if the present administration continues. We'll all be in a civil war. Is that what you want? Might makes right?
@DanP All that would mean is that the average American voter is a gullible sucker which falls for whichever lie or misrepresentation Trump says, which of course depends on the day since he is the ultimate flip flopper who even denies saying what is on national news media video of events.
Please, how do we get rid of the electoral college?!?!?
36
@AJ
It will require a Constitutional amendment. It's not likely to ever happen.
First 2/3 of both the House and Senate have to approve the amendment. Then 3/4 of the state legislatures have to approve.
Why on earth would 3/4 of all the states agree to make themselves irrelevant in every presidential election? Why would they want NYC and California being the only places that have a say in who becomes president?
Back in the day, the Founders knew that the unity of the states would not survive if Virginia was deciding every presidential election.
27
@Ian Actually all it takes is the ongoing Interstate Compact that becomes effective once states with 270 electoral votes agree to it. The compact binds states to give their electoral votes to the national popular vote winner and has approval already with over 180 electoral votes, but is not effective until the 270 is reached. This is in fact far more doable than getting a constitutional amendment approved. I expect it will become effective in 2024 though.
19
@SeniorMoment
As much as I love the compact, I don't see it getting enough votes for the forseeable future. It will only get there when the demographics push purple states blue, like Texas. But once you get to that point, you don't need the compact anyway, you have enough votes to abolish the EC outright.
If you are only willing to play by the rules made in the late 1700s, you can't get rid of the EC until enough red states turn blue...and that's going to be another 10 years at least.
6
If Joe Biden wins the nomination--he will right the "progressive" ship.
11
@will smith: If Joe Biden wins the nomination, he's Hillary 2.0, and Trump has by far his best shot at victory.
Even the analysis this article is based around shows that (despite the too-pessimistic framing): the higher voter turnout goes, the better Dems do. Everywhere.
But you don't get high turnout by nominating a bowl of lukewarm oatmeal.
@will smith If Biden is handed the nomination without earning it, that would dampen the spirits of the electorate just like when Bernie got the shaft in 2016.
The article misses a key fact: If the Russians vote, it’s a Trump landslide.
52
@Paul g All the Russians really care about is creating political instability in Western Nations, so if they continue to play a role it could be for either candidate or just to stir up hate in any form with ads for both sides.
A stark reminder for the Democrats: it'll be a tough race
31
Before the 2016 election, Republicans were openly discussing a tax cut as one of their Party's major platform planks. Yet, rather than counter with their own tax cuts just for individuals, but not for corporations, the Democratic Party watched quietly from the sidelines and completely passed up its opportunity. That was more proof that big business had far too much influnce over the Democratic Party. Now, it's too late... the checks have been cashed and the Republican Party with its crazy tax cut notion just might pull off the impossible re-election of Trump, despite the looming sunsetting of the voters' share of those tax cuts. Let's have one great big Bronx cheer for those Democratic strategists, eh? Our heroes...
8
@Andy Hain Wake up the USA is not a democracy or even a democratic republic. It is in practice an oligopoly controlled by billionaires who buy influence by either buying news outlets like Fox News and all the Murdoch media properties or by funding political campaigns in an era where past public service doesn't seem to matter compared to being a pathological liar.
There is only one poll that matters, and it occurs in November of 2020. Anything before that is a form of intellectual Onanism.
As to the turnout issue, one problem for the Democrats is that increasing the turnout in their strongholds, the big cities, will tip the popular vote but not, in most cases, affect the Electoral College vote because they were already going to win these states. Winning them bigger may make them feel good, but it has no appreciable difference in the Presidential election. Congressional elections, of course, are a different matter.
23
@michaelscody Remember Trump only won the electoral college because of winning a tiny number of big Rust Belt states that have generally voted for Democrats.
E PLURIBUS UNUM - out of many, one. That's ours.
"Go back to where you came from" - That's Trump's, along with that "America First!" rhetoric that his father also used between 1933 - 1941 when he wanted to keep immigrants fleeing persecution in Europe out of the country and calling THEM what Trump is calling people south of the Border, as well as 4 women who are congressional representatives who are not lilly white.
This paper should do an expose on Trump's father, who as a Klan member.
He is his father's son.
24
@Jbugko There is a lot to be ashamed of in the Trump lineage. His father was investigated by President Eisenhower for war profiteering. His original European ancestor left his country to avoid being conscripted for military service and was prohibited from ever returning. I also strongly doubt Donald Trump ever had a bone spur. That is very unusual for a young man. The doctor who made that statement was a tenant in a Trump building.
The problem with the polls and statistics is the closet voters who will deny their support for Trump but will push the lever for him when push comes to shove. The Dems better get their act together fast and nominate someone who can win! It's not time for radical. It's time for peace and quite.
24
@Alan B Agree.
Wrapping oneself in the Progressive Flag and immolating oneself, may earn “brownie” points with a very loud, but very small minority within the democratic camp, but such actions for the blue collar majority only looks insane.
Progressives constantly point out the supposed insanities of Trump, then proceed to act even more bizarre, more radical, more insane.
Talk, like that of eradicating the electoral college, granting health care to people who are here illegally, raising taxes on all..... these and more, MANY more, are upsetting and disturbing to much of the country.
And what have the Democrats DONE during this short period they have controlled the House since taking it back?
Not much by way of assuaging the majority of voters.
Not much in proving they are fit for more.
Their’s have been a period of confrontation and identity politics. Finger pointing, self moralizing and disharmony.
Not much of a resume to those who are able to grant them a higher position of authority.
What little they have, is more likely to be taken away
4
@Alan B The candidate who can win is the one that most voters feel EARNED the nomination. Hand it to someone based on supposed electability and we're doomed because huge swaths of young America will stay home again.
1
@Alan B: I think we'll see the exact opposite, actually. I expect a lot of Republicans are saying they support him due to local peer-pressure effects, but are privately disgusted with the orange sociopath and will vote against him when the time comes.
As for what the Dems should do, you completely misread things. This is not a time for "peace and quiet," by any stretch. This is a time to get voters *fired up* to turn and and repudiate the GOP. The higher turnout goes, the more Dems win. It has always been thus, and the data behind this article confirms it yet again.
1
"racial polarization "
I read a large array of news but left-leaning papers are the biggest offenders of identity politics. Any front page has stories sliced by race and sex. I do not see much of this from the right. Somewhere, liberals thought insulting whites and giving immigrants health care was a good idea. 2020 will finally put those notions to rest.
31
@Scott Trump has been his own worse enemy doing some egregious things such as Stormy Daniels et al while his wife was pregnant. Giving executive privilege for every lying government official to circumvent the rule of law. Any front page adverse stories are of Trump's own making. Not Fake news but just as awful/immoral as Bill Clinton.
Fox news is full of the same, right wing stuff identifying any one as opposing Trump policies as anti American.
Immigrants are part of our history need to be vetted but allowed in in an orderly legal action. Minorities dominate our armed forces willingly serve unlike a president hiding behind bone spurs.
1
I feel as though I’m stuck in a perpetual state of anguish - think Edvard Munch’s “The Scream”. I doubt I’m the only one.
Racism, cruelty, jingoism, nativism, gerrymandering, outright lying, and worse are flaunted, encouraged and carried out by this crooked administration!
Trump and his minions are destroying our democratic republic.
If you are correct about the results of the electoral college in 2020, I fear that we are lost.
49
I feel the panic rising!
15
Democratic party leaders are out of touch.Trump is using to his advantage.
11
The Electoral College was the ultimate compromise. The original 13 colonies were a collection of separate business enterprises (SEE: Charter companies). When they decided to end the relationship with George III over tax and authority issues, these different groups all had to get together and hammer out an agreement that was deemed fair to each of the enterprises (SEE: Constitution). This is the whole idea behind 'state's rights'. Keep your nose out of my affairs and I'll go along with general policies that are good for this new nation. To insure states rights, you got an Electoral vote for every senator and congressman you had (same today) so each new State would have an equal say and wouldn't just get run over by other State's ideas. In the years since, the Federal government's laws have grown much stronger than state laws. Along the way, we became a much more uniform and unified country. There's a very good argument that the Electoral voting system has long outlived its purpose. I urge you to read about the topic, look at the issue from a larger historical perspective, appreciate the brilliance of the original intent (and the backdrop of 1770s reality) that formed this great country . . . . and give 'the will of the people' in the 21st Century America the same power that the Founding Fathers so fabulously crafted at the beginning of it all.
19
@Jack When the great compromise was devised, some states got more EC votes per person than others. At the time, the ratio between the best represented voters in the country and the most under-represented voters was 14 to 1. THAT was seen as a distasteful arrangement we would surely fix.
Today it is 68 to 1.
11
I think the 14th Amendment makes the Electoral College unconstitutional.
When Mitch McConnell refuses to hold hearings for Merrick Garland, that was the day the Senate has outlived it’s usefulness, too.
After the outcome of 2016, I stopped following polls. Electoral college is the name of the game, like it or not, and Republicans operatives know it. At the end of the day, it depends on who the Democratic nominee is, who shows up to vote and if there is third party candidate who will appeal to the disgruntled(large segments of the population stayed home in 2016 since they perceived Hillary as having a sense of entitlement--Bernie folks did not vote or voted for a third party candidate; African Americans stayed home in droves in Milwakee). If the economy does not tank, Trump has >50% chance of getting reelected. Somehow, I have intellectualized this outcome and it will not hurt as much as it did in 2016. I hope I am wrong!
13
If Dems want to win 2020 getting out the vote is key. Voters need to believe their vote matters and that the Dem nominee will understand and address their issues. Campaign organization also counts, Clinton's campaign was run in a manner that was very impersonal and faceless.
The analysis by these esteemed statisticians had Hillary Clinton's chance at winning at better than 87%. Now that it is not 100% but a lot better than the 13% given to Trump. Now they peer into their magic ball again. I am surprised there is not more humility coming from these quarters.
18
@legal immigrant She had an extremely good chance of winning, but the thing is, we only hold one election, so if the 13% chance comes up the first time, that's it, you don't get to roll the dice again. It doesn't mean the statisticians were wrong, but you and many others might have misunderstood what they were telling us. They don't need more humility, but they could do a better job of explaining exactly what their numbers mean. And maybe we shouldn't pay as much attention to their numbers after all, once we understand what they are saying.
12
@legal immigrant. That was not the number they presented as the election grew near, actually. I remember being disturbed by the stats they posted close to the election...
Painful and shameful that racial polarization could be perceived and used as an electoral advantage.
19
Is America going into the 21st century with the 17th century government? If so, it will die.
19
@PB America did not exist in the 17th century. I believe you had the 18th century in mind, and if you are off by a century, ...
Wow, I'd be quite embarrassed looking at this map if my state were dark green! I'm actually already embarrassed that it is not the darkest shade of red.
11
If Trump is re-elected his first move will be to repeal the 22nd amendment.
7
@edgyroy
A president cannot repeal and amendment. Only 2/3 of both the House and the Senate plus 3/4 of the state legislatures can do that.
2
@edgyroy
Mmmm, that requires more than mere execution action.
1
Lose the popular vote by an estimated 5 million voters and still retains the presidency. Minority Rules in my America, and I’m getting tired of it. Great country we have here, it’s a disgrace to our founding fathers. Times change, so should our constitution and electoral college vote.
38
@PB Should we get rid of the Senate while we’re at it? Why should small States get the same two votes as TX, CA and NY?
The Electoral College and the Senate were part of the deal to get smaller States to join the Union. We can’t re-trade arbitrarily - a Constitutional Amendment is the only way.
6
With his comments at his rally in NC the other night, Trump has signaled that he has no intention of representing "We the People". Trump couldn't care less about Americans like me, whose concerns and fears are of no use to his agenda. Trump goes out of his way to alienate Americans who are of little to no political use to him. In Trump's eyes, Americans who have different political views than that of his devoted followers are to be ostracized, mocked and belittled. He has only disdain for those Americans who criticize his administration. Our beliefs and values, which Trump constantly misrepresents, are "anti-American". If we don't stand with him, then we don't belong in this country, according to Trump's way of thinking.
The pro-trump talking points would have people believe that Americans are tired of Democrats and their "extremism". Wrong. I'll tell you what we are tired of .... we're sick and tired of trump and his exclusionary behavior.
42
@Roberta
A lot of us are sick of both. Extreme policy will do far more damage than extremely vulgar behavior.
The obvious takeaway from this article -
Democrats on the East and West Coasts have to MOVE to the Midwest, South and Southwest (not including CA). To all of the readers from the boroughs of NYC, do you know that for $150,000 in the States above, you can get a nice loft in the heart of a livable city or a 4 BR house on 1/2 acre of a land. The same house in NYC (if it even exists) runs for at least $10,000,000. So, if you really want a Democrat to win, please MOVE right now.
47
@EM.
Coastal Americans don't want to move to places where there are no jobs. How do you think those places became angry enough to vote for Trump?
1
@EM. You may be correct. You make the first move. :)
Where in this NYT article is it demonstrated that a state that went blue for Clinton in 2016 might switch to red for Trump in 2020 ? Without that , the Electoral College math is fuzzy talk.
6
@Suburban Cowboy: It's theoretically possible, but it seemed like in 2016 the close swing states were falling for Trump. Were there any that could have gone either way, but went narrowly for Hillary, and might go over to Trump? In this kind of article, you would want an actual reason to expect that to happen, not just the theoretical possibility.
5
It really doesn't bear thinking about having that man as president for another four years.
It's a terrifying nightmare.
29
Why are we not talking about the Elephant in the Room: Russian election interference. Jimmy Carter had it right when he expressed his belief that Trump did not actually legitimately win in 2016. Trump and his team will rig the game again in 2020, and we know this because it is what this Narcissist projects over and over.
38
This is a highly speculative article, so let me provide some speculative reasoning of my own. If Mr. Trump and the Republicans think that Democrats will again meekly accept the results of an election marred by the machinations of the GOP and their foreign allies to undermine American democracy, then they might be engaging is as much wishful thinking as are the Democrats that think that Trump's racism, incompetence and corruption are sufficient to make his reelection doubtful. The Democrats should understand that the election will be hard fought; however, they should also make it clear to the entire nation that they will contest the election in the courts and in the streets if Trump's win is due to some dubious Electoral College sleight of hand. It would be better to fight than to acquiesce in powerlessness. To do otherwise would end what small semblance of democracy we have left.
25
@Utahn: In the courts, yes, where possible, although the predictions here are based on legitimate poll numbers, not on any machinations that could be challenged in the courts. It does point to a pretty appalling conclusion though, if the Republicans are able to count this routinely on an anti-democratic electoral college win. We would indeed need to start thinking about an appropriate response to that.
14
@Utahn, contesting the election in the streets generally does more damage to democratic rule than acquiescing to an election that didn’t go your way does.
2
@Utahn Even better, figure out now how to get more votes for your side. This type of talk isn't it. This talk does the opposite.
2
Seriously time to eliminate the electoral college.
23
@truth. And the Senate. Which elimination would be necessary to the elimination of the electoral college. Best of luck.
3
The Democrats should be resigned to another Trump presidency. They should put all their energies into winning the Senate and keeping the House of Representatives. They should try for a two-thirds majority in the Senate. The American Democracy could be forever lost if the Republicans led by Mitch McConnell retain the Senate.
As is very clear from this fine analysis, Trump will undoubtedly be re-elected. No elected Republicans have condemned his racism, his criminal behavior or his disastrous policy initiatives. Attorney General Barr will issue a report saying that the Special Counsel’s investigation was a partisan effort and that there is no evidence that Trump committed any crimes. These two actions will make it easy for the Trump racist base and those non-racists with a weak conscious to vote for him. Barr’s actions will make Congressional oversight impossible and reduce popular support for impeachment to zero. Trump will not be convicted by Congress and will certainly be back in the White House.
15
@Peter Tomasulo: Well, it's not quite undoubted: it's early times yet. But it's a very serious situation., and you're right, focusing our considerable resources on the Senate (and State and local races) makes a lot of sense. Of course, the Presidential race is part of every Senate race also, it's not as if we can just write that off...
10
All I see is Democrats tripping over each other to give more to undocumented immigrants than their competitors—free health care, extending “temporary” stays indefinitely, fighting court-ordered deportations. Unless they can show they care about the average U.S. citizen as much as they do about those here illegally they are going to lose again.
32
@Scott D: And people who have been propagandized to think illegal immigration is actually a serious problem in this country will, of course, be swayed by that. Thing is, those people already support Trump.
The rest of the country, people with an actual sane sense of perspective, think that running concentration camps is much more of a serious problem than a growing nonwhite population.
I'm not convinced that the majority of my fellow Americans are xenophobes, and Dems shouldn't go running scared from the prospect that they are.
1
Crunch the poll numbers all you want. Thanks to the polls, how confident were we when we went to bed election night 2016, only to find out the next morning that Trump won. So much for polls and who's up and who's down.
What we did learn in 2016 is that for the second time in this century, the winner of the popular vote did not win the Electoral College vote, which really is depressing.
Trump is a shameless high-stakes gambler who is betting he can play the angry bigot-Electoral College game to beat any opponent.
But, the reason not to take much of this seriously, is we don't know who the Democratic presidential candidate is yet. Unknown Obama beat well-known Hillary in the 2008 primary election, and McCain-Palin in the general election. Why? because Obama knew how to talk to rational American voters--Bill Clinton won for the same reason.
Hopefully, the Democrats make the whole election cycle exciting, drown out Trump, and come up with smart, caring candidates who articulate a strong, simple, common sense economic and middle-class agenda, support for the environment and for our allies, not dictators, in foreign policy.
2020 is not the year for Democrats to play left field politics.
22
@PB There are no Obamas in the DEM field!
Bernie Sanders has pulled Harris and Warren too far left for them to be viable in a general election.
When it's all said and done, America's fate is in the hands of the right-wing TV network owned by an amoral Australian billionaire. How bizarre...
25
Have you ever looked TV ratings? Fox may lead the pack, but the others have greater combined totals. Very few Fox watchers would ever vote for a Democrat, just as very few readers of this paper would vote for a Republican. Blaming Fox for the election results is absurd as their total monthly viewership is well under 3 million per month.
The part about Fox that readers of this paper don’t get is that the viewers are not buffoons. Most that I know are college-educated and higher from good schools. There are zealots just like any group, but they are the outliers.
1
The major flaw in Mr. Cohn’s analysis seems to be he is snapshotting 2016 and extrapolating, without accounting for the age demographic shifts between 2016 and 2020.
According to NPR, 16 million first time eligible voters will potentially be added to the rolls as 10 million older voters shuffle off this mortal coil.
Based on recent rates of registration, and assuming 2016 voting patterns, this could mean a 4.5 million (!) vote swing away from Trump i.e. he could lose the popular vote by 7.5 million.
Allocating these 4.5 million by state, approx. 2/3/3% for WI, OH, PA would result in 90,000 to 135,000 vote swings in those states, leading to Trump losing in the Electoral College as well.
The Democrats’ main job then is to register first time voters, GOTV and hold their 2018 coalition intact.
(Bookmarking this page to pull out again on Nov. 4, 2020.)
31
@Gautam
You know what voter segment increased their turnout in 2018? OLDER VOTERS! Only a third of young voters turned out, about the same % as always. And this is a different election with a different electorate. Democrats should not take too much solace from the 2018 outcome.
2
@Gautam Your comment is excellent and as usual the media has not dealt with this issue. It is like there is only Trump, a man who is despised around the world and after only 2 years he lost the House in the record breaking Midterms in 2018, something Republicans rarely mention. What do the media do? Promote his chances and ignore the majority of voters, just like he does. He has saturated his base and offers nothing to other voters including millennials. I just hope the majority of American people wake up and stop this chaos, come back the real USA, we miss you.
3
So the country is still in the hands of those who have totally failed to adapt and survive in our society - this is the opposite of a meritocracy.
Why are the failures so sure they are right?
8
The United States is a historical democratic experiment in letting the runner-up win and see what happens.
14
Thank you Nate for writing one of the most depressing stories of my life and perhaps for human history.....may be reaching for medication shortly
26
If voters could simply add up ALL of Trump's personal life's foibles in once column, they might write off divorces, hush money to shady ladies and shady men, bankruptcies which took down many others as he rose financially with Russian and other money, maybe he could pull it off.
Then add to this the thousands of lies. Then the dictator friendly atmosphere of the White House. Then the sell-off of American resources. Add to this the anti-environmental policies. Add to this the cronies in or going to jail. Still adding, the use of office for personal enrichment. More would include making our allies cringe and enemies have red carpet treatments.
As to the economy, it booms for some who make money from money, but not for hourly workers. Is investment in the new economy where green jobs pay more than black coal and oil which pollute air and water? No, it is a blast of empty promises for the lost land of Eldorado, where the promise of riches for all was never realized, and never will be.
Instead of the hackneyed "are you better off", we need to ask if our children will be better off with this set of corrupt policies. Answer is "No." Trump should go so the future will brighten.
13
@Ed Marth, our children will be better off in our automated future if we tightly control who and how many get to immigrate. Trump is willing to at least try to do this while Democrats are eagerly offering benefits to those who sneaked in and preventing enforcement of existing laws.
6
About 43% of all eligible voters didn’t choose to cast their ballots in 2016.
It’s hard to believe that we can’t find the 77,000 or so in the key swing states to carry the electoral vote in 2020.
Dems to to find some of these people as disgusted as we are with this grotesque presidency of Donald Trump.
13
What a nightmare: Trump loses by 5 million votes but somehow navigates the Electoral College with relative ease, validating the GOP's long, never-ending pursuit of voter suppression. God help America.
20
@keveitnich in NY trump “somehow” navigates the electoral college for a win? Gerrymandered states , scotus support through “hands off” gerrymandered state maps and Citizens United, and Russian interference = somehow.
Perhaps after losing the 2020 electuions, the Democrats may agree that a uniform cultural monochrome on a diverse country is not suitable. Perhaps we could then genuinely evolve to States rights and co-existence, without a California boycotting a North Carolina over toilet rules. Perhaps Democrats would agree to a strong border barrier in order to make progress on bread and butter issues. Perhaps...
5
People dislike his demeanor, but like his efforts to take on problems that others have just kicked the can down the road.
Take a working class guy, making an OK, but not great, wage, with no health benefits. Show him all the Democratic candidates agreeing that they would put illegal aliens on Medicaid, while our working class guy makes too much for Medicaid, but not enough for decent health insurance. And for the first time in years, due to a tight job market, he is getting a raise, or has options with other employers.
Trump has that voter sewn up.
27
This election is the Democrats to lose. Put forth a moderate candidate, who isn't promising free everything for everybody, and enough voters will vote for him/her and that will be the end of the Trump nightmare. We're all crowing about Trump's narcissism and are unable to see the very same traits playing out in our "more left than thou" candidates. Sadly, we can't do what's simple. Just note all the comments about reforming the electoral college, or how unfair it is. Yeah, okay, we'll work on that right after we get Mitch McConnell to support Medicare for All. Wake up!
26
@Andrew N a moderate candidate will be tied to the AOC crowd and not be able to distance themself. Trump just made sure of that.
1
The electoral college exists to prevent the tyranny of the majority. If you think Trump is terrifying, try to imagine what this country would be like under the tyranny of the Left. Scary indeed!
11
@Michaela
I am willing to try it out.
13
@Michaela
Yes, people would have health care without insecurity, as is the case in other advanced nations. Yes, people could obtain an education, and the subsequent well paying job, without being saddled with crippling debt--they might even buy houses. Yes, monopolists would be put out of business and working people would have a living wage. Oh, Michaela, what a scary world that would be.
@Michaela "The electoral college exists to prevent the tyranny of the majority."
And it is working so well! (By protecting the tyranny of the minority.)
How great is America, where a Presidential candidate could lose the popular vote by more than 5% or over 6 million votes, yet by some weird, archaic, gerrymandering in favour of states with very low populations, the Electoral College could again install the loser on votes, as the winner of the Presidential race.
States with a low population, already receive the same number of Senators as States with over fifty times their population. Why should voters in states with a low population, have more say in who becomes President?
51
Freedom of speech and so are illegal search and seizure. Should we throw those archaic rights by the wayside as well. Without the EC we would be living under mob rule. The hate and vitriol is coming from all sides, but most overlook those on the far left who will not even consider that others opinions are equal to theirs.
5
@JimH
Ridiculous analogy. Those rights effect everyone equally. The EC effects people disproportionately. Get it? And we already have mob rule. Just so happens that the mob is the minority.
And after seeing that horrific event in Greenville I have fully considered that your opinions are different than mine. Message communicated quite effectively.
3
@Barry of to prevent one or two states. It is to prevent one or two states from controlling the country. Read Alexander Hamilton and Federalist paper 68,
2
Hopefully in 2020, the Democrats will understand the rules and run a campaign to win enough state elections to secure the presidency. That might work better than phoning up the electors after the fact and asking them to change their vote (yes - Hillary did that.)
11
@Ambrose Rivers
In doing so it would be wise to follow the first political dictum: Never insult the voters.
4
The more I look at it, the more promising andrew yang becomes. His policies are progressive enough to motivate the base, but he comes off as a nonpartisan problem solver. I also do believe his focus on the jobs automation has and will take away is the the most important issue in middle america and the racism/xenophobia is more a symptom of the economic instability caused by the automation of millions of jobs. He seems to do very well with trump supporters and is what many of them hoped trump would be. I know he is a little less vocal than other candidates on social issues, but unfortunately I really don't see race/immigration as winning issues for democrats as this article also points out, and I believe that democrats are alienating millions of people who don't think themselves to be racist (irrespective of whether they actually are). Initially I believed the freedom dividend to be unfeasable/gimmicky, but l he comes off as very cogent in his longer form interviews, which I encourage people to check out (2 minutes is not enough time to explain policy @NBC lol)
8
I go for Biden to beat Trump. Biden is competitive where Trump narrowly won last time and progressive/liberal states left with the choice of Trump or Biden will go for Biden.
16
@Art Butic
I agree. A candidate like Biden could definitely beat Trump in Texas and probably in Florida too.
Does Trump's historically high and steady dis-approval matter? I didnt see that factored into your calculations. Trump wasn't thisn"unpopular" in 2016, and there won't be two 3rd party candidates stealing form the Democrat. Shouldn't those variables get factored in, also?
5
@John
Remember Ronald Reagan, now remembered as one of the most popular presidents in American history? His approval ratings were as bad as Trump's throughout his entire first term, and the economy was worse off in 1984 when he got re-elected than it was when he started.
3
@John
But Trump will still win the Russian vote.
People are "on" to the establishment: mainstream Dems and Republicans don't want prosperity for the many citizens in the flyover states. Dems want endless surplus labor from low skill, poor countries to take jobs and lower wages, and create hungry voters to feed, to get their grateful vote. And Republicans want more and more illegal and legal serf labor to employ at low wages, and no benefits, and toss on public assistance once injured.
Trump wants American citizens to have a better, more prosperous, more hopeful life. Liberals can't stand it.
13
@tbs
I believe you’re confusing a natural business cycle with someone borrowing $1 Trillion/year on the national credit card to live beyond their means while ignoring the “past due” notices. It’s a disaster that will be awaiting for my kids and grandkids so that you can have a short-term sugar high.
@tbs Sorry, buddy. You're Trump's model citizen. He doesn't "want" anything for you -- he's just trying to satisfy a massive inner hunger that he can't appease. Always works to feed the beast, but it always wants more. There are no new ways to say this. That's why it's so awful.
But I'm being too psychological, right? You and Trump are in this together. Question you probably won't understand: once he's devoured the rest of us, who do you think comes next?
1
@tbs ...don't confuse bluster with action everybody wants a successful mid America revival. Trump's answer was that ridiculous self serving tax plan for the uber rich and torturing the very very poor at the Mexican border. He still is putting on TV entertainment show using the White House as a backdrop with a cast of characters in constant motion either corrupt, unable to tolerate his frightening behavior or
devoid of the rule of law
1
Re: Secession because of the Electoral College
Abe Lincoln won the Electoral College and lost the popular vote.
Secession did not work out well.
5
@otroad
Where did you get that Lincoln didn't win the popular vote? Simply untrue.
Lincoln 1,865,000 votes
Douglas 1,365,000 votes
Breckenridge 848,000 votes
Bell 591,000 votes.
Yes, Lincoln didn't win an outright majority, but he certainly won the popular vote contest.
8
@sidetracked
Plus we should qualify popular vote for that era, and before. The population was 31m in 1860. Compare that to the numbers allowed to vote. The EC was devised in an era when voting meant something different and was the preserve of rich white men.
The most frightening thing about this article is the overwhelmingly ignorance in the comments about our system of governance. Our Founders knew the two most dangerous threats to personal liberty were one man tyrannical rule and the tyranny of the majority. History taught them that pure democracies always devolve into the former threat when a unscrupulous individual appeals to enough people to trample the rights of the minority. That's why they set up a representative Republic with separation of powers to slow and cool the passions of ideologues. A quote attributed in Franklin goes "democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what's for dinner."
16
@James Dezelan,
Thanks for the reinforcement.
Just hope the zealots will quiet down enough to hear you.
6
Seems we need a moderate progressive-even if one's heart yearns for other. Keep the vision on the prize. 4 more years would be horrendous....more so than current disaster. Young people, all people you must vote....our and future lives depend upon ridding of the menace.
11
I voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. This time I am most likely going to vote for Trump. I am in Ohio.
13
the biggest issue in the United States is ignorance and lack of critical thinking. your comment just proves my point. we have no basic universal healthcare nor outstanding public education provided by taxation. that is why this country is falling so far behind in all metrics that measure civilized countries.
@Andrew
That makes sense.
@Andrew many agree with you. It's called common sense.
What the disgruntled appear to be wanting is an elimination of the states, changing them instead into federal districts under direct national control.
Perhaps it's time for a name change, as well.
4
I believe this is the most likely scenario for 2020. The only chance, as I see it, is to impeach Trump and put his misdeeds in the official record. The senate won’t convict, but that doesn’t matter, the important thing is to shine a light on trump, his administration and his business. He might still win, but impeachment stands the best chance of crippling the rest of his agenda for this term and all of his second term. That’s the best we can hope for.
If the house doesn’t impeach, then trumpism might very well end democracy in America.
Eight years of trump sounds awful, but the end of democracy would be much worse.
Only Impeachment can prevent the moral hazard of trumpism. Trump will be gone in 2020 or 2024, but trumpism will linger for a long long time if we do not impeach now.
18
@KPH
And how exactly is Trump going to end democracy?
I keep hearing this over and over... I'm genuinely curious.
Is he going to set the Capitol on fire? Is he going to padlock the Supreme Court?
I have no idea what people are talking about when they make this statement.
4
@KPH. I believe they will start impeachment proceedings after the 2020 election if Trump wins. Especially if the Dems can win the Senate. This is their strategy. I agree. Wait until after the election if you can win the Senate. Then, get him out.
@KPH The GOP house impeaching Clinton sure helped thier candidate in next election right?
The problem with these mathematical analyses, popularized by Nate Silver, is that they treat all voters as equally impressionable units.
In fact, voters are human beings and members of a human culture and many of their decisions are culturally, rather than mathematically, motivated.
In this article this error is most clearly exposed in the section on increased turnout. Cohn informs us that higher turnout nationally will drive the Midwest to the right, but will have the opposite effect in the Sun Belt, driving it to the left. Why? Cohn does not bother to address this question, perhaps because it does not have a mathematical solution.
The answer is ethnographic. In the Midwest a significant block of voters did not vote in the 2018 election. These voters were primarily white, working class. Cohn assumes that if they return to the electorate they will vote for Trump as they did in 2016.
In the Sun Belt the missing voters are black and Hispanic. They do not vote because of economic repression. Therefore, the factors that would raise participation in the South are diametrically opposed to the factors that would raise participation in the Midwest.
I also believe that Cohn's omission of undecided voters introduces a fatal error into his analysis. For example, he feels that 2016 Trump voters who did not vote in 2018 will return to Trump in 2020. I believe that their failure to support Trump in 2018 might be a sign of their complete abandonment of Trump in 2020.
9
Lots of talk about the so-called popular vote. Let’s talk baseball. In 1960, despite losing the World Series, the Yankees scored 55 runs, the most runs scored by any one team in World Series history, a unique record, and more than twice as many as the Pirates, who scored 27 runs. In 1971, 1972, 1973, and 1975 the winning team scored fewer runs overall. Why? Because the Founders of baseball, in their wisdom, made the rules about winning games by scoring more runs than the opponent, and winning series by winning more games than the opponent. Fair? Not to the losers. In the case of the Electoral College, the reasons are far more compelling, and the rules even less likely to be changed. It’s well to keep in mind that the House, the Senate, and the Presidential elections all favor different interests, but are collectively intended to balance. All the talk about the popular vote is just uninformed and irresponsible agitation.
15
@YankeeLiberty yes why should a majority of Americans select the leader of the entire nation in a straight up and down vote. Because of my thoughts on baseball. Makes lots of sense.
3
@YankeeLiberty
This is one of my favorite arguments for fascism. The rules are the rules and only losers want to change them.
Of course the right makes the rules, and makes them deliberately unfair to everyone but them. They then insist that you play by their rules.
In fact the electoral college was created to allow right wing slave owners to prevent emancipation of their human property. It was always unfair and unjust and should be abolished.
And as a bonus, with any luck at all, if we abolish the electoral college, we won't have to listen to smug right wing trolls tell us that democracy is "irresponsible agitation."
If you live in New York and want to get a divorce, you have to check the New York Law.
If you live in Virginia and want to sell your house, you have to check the Virginia Law.
The U.S. is a union of sovereign states.
The President is elected by the States. Each state decides by majority who should be President. That candidate gets all the state's votes.
Nebraska and New Hampshire tried to be hip by introducing a wrinkle.
The bargain to put together the Union was that each state got the number of votes equal to number of Representatives and Senators.
If there is a tie in the electoral college vote, the President is elected by the house with each state casting one vote.
This shows that the states and not the people elect the President.
23
@True Observer Maine, not New Hampshire allocates an electoral vote based on the winner of the congressional district. Trump won ME-2 by a 51%-41% margin.
4
It should be the people electing the President. It's time.
13
@True Observer]
Thank you Senator John C. Calhoun for that stirring defense of States Rights.
However, Governor Wallace, I am forced to point out again that you LOST the Civil War.
And because of that America is now one nation, NOT a collection of individual states.
3
It is more than ironic that the Electoral College was designed to reduce the importance of the densely populated Northern states in order to get the Southern, slave-owning, states to agree to a United States.
The "tyranny of the majority" that it was designed to minimize was, in fact, the realization that equality applied to everyone.
There really is NO justification to continue the Electoral College. The purpose for which it was established no longer matters and the extent to which it can be manipulated is disturbing.
That the opinion of some states should become irrelevant is beside the point. As the current POTUS has demonstrated, the issues affecting the less populated states are far less important than those affecting the financial scions.
49
@SeanMcL You really think the northern states in 1788 were densely populated non-slave owning states?
6
@SeanMcL
You have this completely wrong. At the time the US was founded, the northern states were not densely populated.
The largest state was Virginia -- in both geography and population. Add to that the fact that 3/5 of all slaves were also counted as population for the purpose of representation in Congress.
The founders knew that the new country created by the unity of 13 states would not last if only one state -- Virginia -- would be deciding every presidential election.
The Electoral College was an attempt to NOT disenfranchise the smaller northeastern states.
It's also a fallacy that the Electoral College was an attempt to give more power to the slave-owning states. It did just the opposite.
6
@SeanMcL
The financial “scions” seem to be doing quite well. Not sure of your point.
Have any of the Democratic candidates said anything that would make voters in Michigan and Wisconsin want to vote for them? Michigan voters are concerned about her jobs going to China. Nobody but Trump seems to care about that. His tariffs on autos and auto parts are loved by the voters in Michigan. Does anyone think that Medicare for all is going to work in a State that has its union members receiving employer paid health care? And, why would anyone in Michigan want open borders with Mexico? How does that help Michigan?
40
@Joseph Falconejoe, but why should Michigan voters be the only ones that matter? Trump's tariffs hurt consumers everywhere. Those employer sponsored health-care plans are a tax write-off so they're subsidized by the rest of us!
14
@Joseph Falconejoe Thank you Joseph for telling it like it is. I wish the Dems would hire you and others like you to advise them on their campaigns.
5
@Joseph Falconejoe
Manufacturing is at a 9 year low, auto sales are at an all time low, tarriffs are taxes passed on to the consumer. Trump steel tarriffs are hurting businesses an the auto industry is about to lay off 700,000 workers in states like yours. Jesus no wants open borders and most illegals are here via airplane and overstaying their visas, ie. Canadians, the largest group of illegals in recent years. Additionally "illegals" contributed 11 billion to social security alone last year, something they cannot get, which we need due to Republicans dipping into social security to pay for wars. ie Bush 1.3 trillion out of sc. Republicans don't want you to have health insurance period. 20 republican states are suing to get rid of the affordable care act. Or unions which Goresh just took a blow to. Oh and everything says we have a recession coming next April, May thanks to Trumps policies. Tariffs were a major cause of the Great Depression, and his giveaway to the rich while he increased the deficit by 1.9 trillion dollars, that will come out of your pocket btw. Mitch McConnell wants to reduce social security and trump proposed cutting medicare by 585 Billion Dollars. Republicans are for rich people.
2
The single most depressing story I’ve read in a long time. The electoral college is an anti-democratic relic.
88
@Rick Derevan
Not at all. It serves an essential role in unifying a union of disparate sovereign states. We are not, and never have been at the national level, a plebescitary democracy.
Of course, the democrats *could* nominate someone who respects blacks but opposes reparations, for example. I think your troubles with the EC would quickly fade away.
7
@Rick Derevan. For the thousandth time, the EC is not an anti-democratic relic of the United States because the country was not formed as a democracy. And for good reason. A little education would go a long way for people who moan about the EC.
3
Not only do I think Trump will win in 2020 (considering the DNC has shown it doesn't care about the electability of candidates), it won't matter if they take the white house if they don't take the Senate because Mitch is worse than Trump... Mitch actually knows how the government works and will stop any liberal, let alone progressive, agenda.
60
Thanks for wrecking my weekend, Nate.
If Trump wins with a 5 million deficit in the popular vote, the West Coast and New England should secede. Taxation without representation. Remember that?
63
@Anthony Effinger you mean lower taxes, higher wages, lower unemployment and the best economy I 50 years because of Trump’s policies. All of America including these liberal states are well represented with Trump.
15
@CW Morris, it's amazing what one can accomplish when one starts with an economy that's been on a seven year upswing. Especially when deficits don't matter anymore.
44
@Leonard. Wait, thats the same argument Republicans made when Clinton got elected.
2
Why would anyone think a "strategy based on racial polarization" would work? It didn't work for Obama and the Democrats when they rolled out the Black Lives Matter demagoguery, in fact, it probably got Donald Trump elected. So why should we think it will work for the GOP?
5
Please run a follow-up article examining the role of various third party possibilities, eg, the Green Party. Could they be fatal to the Democratic hopes?
13
Soon after the 2020 Presidential election some of us could be looking for other countries to live in. Unless you're a Republican, White, Non-College Educated, out of work voter; life could be miserable for us who aren't .
19
Abolish the Electoral College? How? Armed revolt against the king? Enough of this nonsense. The electoral college is and always has been a mistake, but its not going away. This garbage about otherwise the small states would never get a say is just that, garbage, why should small states get more than their share? (Which they do big time, with the Senate). I can see in another decade or two, when ten or so coastal states are the majority of the population, but represented by just 20 Senators and a minority of the electoral votes, the US finally collapsing. The big states will no longer put up with taxation without representation, and simply refuse to keep paying the bill for the small states. Its hopeless.
24
@spike, quite a few states have signed on to a compact that would allocate their electoral votes to the popular vote winner. The EC may be difficult to get rid of, but there's nothing in the Constitution about winner-take-all. But nothing will happen until enough states have agreed that add up to the more than half of electoral votes required to win the election.
8
@Leonard Assuming the Compact passes muster with the Supreme Court.
There is a process to change the Constitution, you know. It just takes the will to do it.
2
re-election in 2020 could mean a re-write of our Constitution.
with a big help from those who do not care for this democraric republic.
3
Plenty of time for Trump to crash the economy.
11
@albert if the economy crashes it will be caused by the obstructionist democrats in congress. Trump’s policies have given us a booming economy. It would be even better if Dems in congress did their job.
9
I wouldn’t say that the economy is booming just yet. If it is, then the Republicans will vote for the increase in minimum wage. Lets see how that goes. Another point you miss is the massive deficit that the US will probably never be able to pay off, leaving your grandchildren something to worry about.
@CW Morris
No, it will be the cyclical end of the eleven upswing started by his predecessor. Just like Bush, Trump inherited a growing economy. Just like Bush, he will oversee an economic implosion. But don't worry about Trump personally. He's shorting the market. You are being conned.
It's time a handful of voters in one state stopped making irrelevant the popular vote of The People. Twice in my life I have seen a candidate win.. er, lose.. based on this ridiculously backward scheme. I say enough!
Americans do not want a President Trump and we never did. We voted that way, but were forced to accept this chaotic Administration because of our Electoral College.
Those who argue voting is pointless have a point: it kind of is. If you live in a blue state you may as well burn your red vote, and vice versa. The President is leader of all Americans and should be decided by all Americans.
A project is underway to eliminate this bizzare process and if enough states (35) sign on, the EC is done. I say it's a Hail Mary pass but what have we got to lose? A heck of a lot, my friends.
24
Legitimate reelection for Trump is not likely. Illegitimate reelection of Trump is expected.
37
@Art he will win because folks paying attention will vote for him. Everything is better under Trump.
8
Funny how all these progressives are crying that are crying about the electoral college are the same people crying about how hard minorities have it. The electoral college exists to protect against the tyranny of the majority. You don't get to have it both ways, sorry.
20
@G
The minority rights guaranteed in the Constitution, particularly in its Bill of Rights, were designed to protect the enumerated rights of individuals, some but not all belonging to what I think you mean by the word "minorities," rights that might otherwise be trampled by the majority that outnumbers them.
What you seem to be suggesting is the Electoral College was intended to be a kind of enumerated governing right intended, not protect a rights but to impose the will of a minority upon the majority.
It's a novel idea, but one if taken seriously, would lead to the conclusion that the Founders were looking forward to a future of minority rule--and that notion is as hard to swallow as the country will find it hard to live with.
7
@G
The electoral college is there because the founders were afraid of direct democracy—they did not trust the people. Thus they believed a smaller group of well to do’s would be a good check on the popular vote. That is the reason for the electoral college
4
As a practical matter, our election has been reduced to a handful of tossups states. Contrarian voters in states like New York, California, and Massachusetts on the left and Louisiana, Mississippi, and Wyoming on the right are essentially disenfranchised. That's why I oppose the electoral college. Everyone's vote should have equal value.
8
The National Democratic organization would be foolish to discard the importance of Texas voters. Get people registered to vote and counter the republican inflammatory, untrue, misleading ads across that state. Texans can turn BLUE, not just purple NOW.
14
If every patriotic American votes in 2020, this Trump nightmare will come to an end. We can do it. For our children! For America! For the World!
37
Thanks for your in depth analysis Nate. I shall now go and have an in depth stiff drink. Maybe two or three.
28
It took me several hours to have the guts to click on this article, based on the nightmare promised by the headline. Now I'm trying to figure out what kind of castle and moat I need to build to survive another 5+ years of this horrendous president feeding gleefully off the civil war he has inspired and the devastating racial animus he has reactivated, another 5+ years of the GOP twisting democracy into something unrecognizable so they can steal power.
This is like the opposite of a post-apocalyptic story, it's pre-apocalyptic -- a guess into what our country will look like when the unchecked toxicity of greed, nationalism, racism and religious extremism has had 8 years to poison and kill so much progress and humanity. I guess I'll lay my money on something like Saudi Arabia. It won't look like America, that's for sure -- because it hardly does now.
25
"Miami-Dade is one of the few places where Republicans win Hispanics, in this case Cuban voters."
The Miami Cubans have in the past tended conservative, as descendents of the strongly anti communist middle class that has fled Castro's Cuba after the revolution. But can they outnumber the liberal Democrats, blacks and whites, in Miami?
5
@Meredith Don't even get me started with the Cubans. If 3/4 ths of the rest of the state of Florida would know how the Republicans cater to them Florida would go blue every election. The Republicans are excellent at keeping the Cuban Adjustment Act secret.
@Meredith
In a word, yes. The Venezuelan, Colombian and Caribbean Island immigrants also tend to conservativism, as do some of the European immigrants.
4
@Meredith
Something I rarely see mentioned is the Venezuelan vote in Florida.
Venezuelans came to Florida in huge numbers after Chavez took power in Venezuela. They came here legally which means they were eligible for citizenship after five years. They vote and they vote solidly Republican.
In a Florida, where elections come down to the wire, the Venezuelan vote is very significant.
"According to the most recent estimates, about 200,000 Venezuelans live in Florida, most concentrated in South Florida, specifically Weston (referred to by many as “Westonzuela”) and Doral (known as “Doralzuela”)."
2
The only thing that concerns me more than a second term for President Trump is all of the garbage the Democrats were promising at their last debate. It still amazes me that the Democrats here prefer to trash our constitutional norm of the Electoral College rather than moderate their positions to win over voters outside of urban costal areas.
31
@I want another option
It s not a world norm though. 3 million less voters and you can still win. A credible constitutional norm in a democracy is that to win you need more votes than the opposition. 3 million less votes. This is normal? The Electoral College system leaves the USA having Russia deciding the election. Sick and tired of that?
9
This is the year the electoral college breaks. How many millions of people’s voices will be silenced by republican liberal hate.
12
Thank you, NYTimes for giving me anxiety late on a Friday. Just how I wanted to start my weekend!
25
Time to seriously consider secession. A President who gets reelected despite losing the popular vote once can be considered a on off. However for this to repeat itself, on an even larger scale in 2020 would be proof that this country has, thanks to that anachronistic institution known as the electoral college, embarked on an evolutionary trajectory leading to ethnocratic authoritarianism. Just as the country could not survive "half slave half free", it cannot survive
"half democratic meritocracy, half republican ethnocracy", unless we, the majority, are willing to accept the demise of democracy.
We can secede, and win. Blue states (West coast, North-east and parts of the West and Midwest) are far bigger and wealthier than the Red States, California itself is the world's sixth biggest economy. Unlike 1860, this time civil war is unlikely, because both sides realize that neither can win, given the destructive potential of modern weapons. Around a third of the military would go Blue, Afro-Americans and Hispanics are significantly overrepresented in the military, especially in combat units.
Worst case scenario, if a secession map was to preclude territorial continuity of the new state, and the other side tries to force us to stay in the country, we could join Canada, a NATO member. Combined Blue + Canadian militaries could hold its own. Beats living in an increasingly authoritarian republic.
42
@yonatan arielCorrection on California it now has the fifth largest with the UK dropping like a stone and will continue on with Boris Johnson. I agree if this happens and I pointed out earlier it happened in 1968 and everyone predicated the end of the Electoral College. It would be time for the Blue Progressive states that contribute 70% of the Federal revenue to leave and let the red confederates eat dirt. Was no the Revolution fought on the same grounds. Welfare Mitch who state of Kentucky gets $40 billion more than it puts in and Rand Paul the nasty termite who votes against health for the 7/11 responders due to its impact on the debt. Same guy had no problem with the tax cut that is guess what causing the problem. Jim Trautman
I'm a MI swing voter who voted for obama twice and begrudgingly HRC. I'm not only voting for Trump in 2020 but also Republicans for congress, because the following policies are major flaws:
1. Abolishing private healthcare insurance: Democrats keep repeating that "no one" is happy with their private insurance. I must be the exception since I am very satisfied with it, as are most working people I know.
Medicare for all would be significantly worse for me.There is no out of pocket max for medicare and that's a killer for many of us with pre existing conditions (current out of pocket max is 3K). Moreover, there is only 80% coinsurance, while mine currently is 90% in network.
2. Illegal immigration: Democrats current policy is nothing short of open borders and defies common sense. Importing unlimited poverty (especially with the lure of free healthcare and college) has no basis in reality. Left seems to be labeling anyone who enforces the borders and most americans as racist and selfish and all economic migrants as saints (Please ignore the news of MS13 in LA, etc). Their policy is essentially "americans second".
3. Wealth tax: Seriously? After taxing income, housing via property taxes, sales tax, etc, left wants to add on a wealth tax on assets. Many assert it would only be on those with 20m plus (excluding Warren who is only worth 9 million), but like other taxes, would eventually apply to all americans.
I'll take the lesser of two evils in Trump since he'll done in 2024
34
@Satishk
And you are not alone. There are millions of disillusioned former Democrats and independent voters who will follow suit.
8
Exactly. What are the Dems offering Michigan voters? How would Michigan be better off with open borders and Medicare for all?
6
@Satishk
I agree with you but voting for Trump is not the answer. Trump is violently opposed to Free Speech, lies about everything.
Medicare for everybody is like sending everybody to the DMV for medical care. However it is good for business to have universal healthcare in some form.
I would not want people to lose their home, retirement for cancer treatment or debilitating disease like MS, degenerative diseases. It would keep our workforce mobile and allow for people to change jobs without fear of losing their healthcare.
As Tom Friedman said on MSNBC tall wall with a big gate at the border is important. Our country was founded with hard working immigrants. Ask diary farmers in Iowa about the hard working Hispanics.
Punitive wealth tax is not going to happen. Biden will be a Business friendly Democrat or the left wing will hand the Presidency to Trump.
Read Tom Friedman's July 16th NYT op-ed and re think your vote for Trump...please.
Biden is likely to win the nomination and will go back to the center where most Americans are.
9
Hillary lost because the black vote didn't turn out in Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. If the Dems nominate someone who appeals to these voters and inspires them to vote then Dems win. If not, Trump wins. Pretty simple.
18
@Ryan No. Democrats lost because we thought Michigan is only Detroit, Pennsylvania is only Philadelphia and it’s suburbs and Wisconsin does not exist. Obama cut into GOP strength among blue collar and lower middle class white voters. Clinton did not. The idea that a party needs only affluent whites and minority voters is a recipe for electoral college disaster and puts the party at a disadvantage in Senate races.
10
@Ryan The problem is that if the Democrats appeal to the African American vote, they lose the middle-of-the road white vote that propelled them to victory in 2018. Sad but true. It's a tough choice.
2
@Ryan I don’t know about Detroit and Milwaukee, but Hillary basically did nothing to turnout the black vote here in Philly. She took it for granted.
Anyway, what beat her here was suburban women sticking with the GOP and the ongoing failure of the Latino community to organize politically and GOTV.
1
There is only one choice!
Election 2020 - vote Democratic, no matter who or for what!
20
@CountryBoy Voting based on political party is not a good thing. Vote based on integrity, shared values, commitment.
2
I don't think the public Democratic-party voters, fully appreciate just how incompetent the DNC is: any political party misguided (read "dumb") enough to nominate HRC, and now just as "misguided" with no lessons learned, is politically lost and out of internal control. It is a corrupt organization, out of touch with moderates, utterly identitarian, and has nowhere near Trump's level of funding. Trump is going to win by a landslide, but the DNC (versus voters) doesn't care: it is a corporation in business win, lose or draw.
11
Corporate interests want him to win so he shall. Why do we play these games in American democracy? Its a farce and we have been acting like it isn't since the Bush/Gore theater showed us the rehearsal. Trump told us it was rigged and that is a rare bit of truth that he did confess. Until the uneven handed corporations and the wealthy shareholders that control them are called out one vote is nothing on the federal level. The Electoral College is a bigger joke than our system of checks and balances. I'm tired. Just go ahead and continue draining the resources until there is nothing because that's really where this is going. Let America take its final act so another nation can really lead and not dominate, hustle, bully, and destroy.
9
@RC If you think America bullies and destroys you've been listening to too many of Trumps harangues on TV. Quietly without fanfare The Chinese have put millions in Mongolia in re education camps and worse. Hong Kong freedom demonstrations are going to end badly as the malevolent Mainland government out waits the demonstrators.
The Chinese under Xi have forced genetic id thru US Biotech companies Thermofisher TMO technology.... a frightening Brave New World/1984. China's Belt and Road involves entrapping dozens of corrupt countries in unrepayable debt leaving them vulnerable to being ensnared in the predatory
Chinese orbit not fantasy but reality, they own the largest port in Ceylon as well as Athens. Africa has large #s of non integrated Chinese workers who are a nation within a nation. They support the dictators in Venezuela, Myanmar and Libya, Iran. USA is far from perfect but China Russia are evil. I don't see any one wanting to going to China or Russia to live...I wonder why??
1
With his comments at his rally in NC the other night, Trump has signaled that he has no intention of representing "We the People". Trump couldn't care less about Americans like me, whose concerns and fears are of no use to his agenda. Trump goes out of his way to alienate Americans who are of little to no political use to him. In Trump's eyes, Americans who have different political views than that of his devoted followers are to be ostracized, mocked and belittled. He has only disdain for those Americans who criticize his administration. Our beliefs and values, which Trump constantly misrepresents, are "anti-American". If we don't stand with him, then we don't belong in this country, according to Trump's way of thinking.
The pro-trump talking points would have people believe that Americans are tired of Democrats and their "extremism". Wrong. I'll tell you what we are tired of .... we're sick and tired of trump and his exclusionary behavior.
15
@Roberta,
Please note, the people of N.C. worship the military; we are very nationalistic, so absolutely people want their Congress to be pro America.
I didn't agree when people yelled "lock her up" for Clinton but Omar has been very divisive.
Go heels.
4
@jrs in rtp My family is heavily military also and we don’t have a problem with congress being pro America which to us includes respecting the need for a strong ethical and well run government. We are ashamed that some military personnel worship trump mindlessly- a coward who has never served and who has shown many times over that because he has no honor he doesn’t know how to show honor and respect (unless it directly benefits him). Fortunately disciplined military leadership has been more respectful of their personal oath to the constitution.
If Trump wins another presidential election where he loses the popular vote by millions of votes, there could be a backlash. I predict there will be calls to amend the constitution, or, short of that, by eliminating the winner-take-all way we apportion electors. There is nothing in the constitution about a winner-take-all in each state. Yet, with the exception of Nebraska and Maine (and only one elector in each) that is what we have. Electors in each state could be apportioned proportional to the vote of the candidate in that state.
11
@DABman If they did proportional representation it would be better for all the VOTERS. I am a Democrat in a very red state and it would be nice if they acknowledged the 35% of us by awarding a portion of the electoral vote. Same for Republicans that live in California or Illinois; their vote would count then too.
It would be an incentive for ALL candidates to try to pick up votes everywhere.
10
Let’s get rid of two Senators per State then. Why should any state have more Senators than California? California and New York can pick the Presidents and control the house and Senate.
5
@DABman
Each state gets to decide how their electors are apportioned.
Has this analysis factored the Puerto Rican immigration wave of 2017-18 to FL? There has to be potentially tens of thousands of new PR voters in Florida who can’t be happy with Trump.
9
Right now there are riots in Puerto Rico complaining that the government is corrupt. Why are these misguided people agreeing with what Trump said over a year ago? Trump complained then about the mismanagement of the hurricane relief funds. Democrats of course said that everything was fine and that another hundred billion dollars would solve all of the problems.
1
@Midwest Moderate
In 2016, the Democrats thought that the Puerto Rican vote would get them over the hump in Florida. It did not materialize.
200,000 Venezuelans who came to Florida after Chavez took power. They came here legally so they became citizens after five years. They are more dedicated voters than the Puerto Ricans and they love Trump.
The electoral college is outdated and should be abolished. The Democratic Party better get their campaign together or we will have 4 more years of trump, his cronies and a revolution that no one will like
12
Trump got elected because he was Anti-NAFTA. If you lived in WI, MI, PA or OH and saw the jobs disappear, you would understand. The Electoral College ensures that the smaller states are ignored at the candidate’s peril.
5
From the newspaper that told me that Hillary was crushing it. I’m skipping the breathless polls for the 2020 election - too much speculation. None of it matters until the balloons drop.
11
The key states are going to be PA, MI, WI, IA, OH, and FL. And stuff like single payer (booting people off their current insurance), "free college," free healthcare for illegals, reperations, $25k government grants for minorities to buy homes, decriminalizing border crossings and in general making immigration into a moral argument about how Trump is mean will absolutely push these states to vote Trump.
30
Enough already. If it's not the weekly NYT front story page story on something Joe Biden said or voted for decades ago, it's a convoluted Upshot piece on how Trump could pull another inside straight and win the Electoral College. It's time for us to wake up and nominate a candidate who can take back PA, MI, WI and IA - and that candidate appears to be Biden. We really do not need to energize voters in California and NY with ultra progressive policies that might increase the Dems' popular vote margin, but will cost Dems the Rust Belt states, thereby assuring a second Trump term, a far right Supreme Court, and the end of democracy as we know it.
Sure, Biden mishandled the Clarence Thomas hearings. I probably shouldn't vote for him in 1991. And, Biden's vote for the Iraq War was a big error. I suppose I won't be voting for him in 2002 either. But, I know there is nothing more critical than preventing this racist, incompetent, unhinged narcissist from remaining in the White House, so, in 2020, I will be voting for the candidate most likely to unseat Trump, and that candidate is Biden.
47
@Rob S.I don't think that's going to happen for the exact reasons stated in the article. You would have thought the Democrats would have learned their lesson. Everyone knew the kind of person Trump was before 2016. He hasn't changed. The Democrats have nobody to blame but themselves catering to the immigration crowd in Miami. Talking in Spanish, etc. I'm not a Republican or a Trump supporter at all but that rubbed me the wrong way.
4
For several states, the margin that the winner won by was so slim that it would only be fair to determine the winner by the popular vote instead of the electoral vote.
In 2016, Trump won all 29 electoral votes from my state of Florida by 1.2 percentage points.
Also, in 2000, George W. Bush won all of Florida’s 29 electoral votes by only 537 votes out of nearly 6 million votes cast.
6
Enough already. If it's not the weekly NYT front story page story on something Joe Biden said or voted for decades ago, it's a convoluted Upshot piece on how Trump could pull another inside straight and win the Electoral College. It's time for us to wake up and nominate a candidate who can take back PA, MI, WI and IA - and that candidate appears to be Biden. We really do not need to energize voters in California and NY with ultra progressive policies that might increase the Dems' popular vote margin, but will cost Dems the Rust Belt states, thereby assuring a second Trump term, a far right Supreme Court, and the end of democracy as we know it.
Sure, Biden mishandled the Clarence Thomas hearings. I probably shouldn't vote for him in 1991. And, Biden's vote for the Iraq War was a big error. I suppose I won't be voting for him in 2002 either. But, I know there is nothing more critical than preventing this racist, incompetent, unhinged narcissist from remaining in the White House, so, in 2020, I will be voting for the candidate most likely to unseat Trump, and that candidate is Biden.
7
The Democrats would need to carry all four of Minnesota, Wisonsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Their strongest ticket would be Biden/Klobuchar. No other Democrat can win all four of these States.
12
@Ted Ford
Interesting idea. However, Klobuchar has to get much better numbers for that to happen, assuming Joe gets the nod.
1
@Ted Ford I agree and even then it's like a hail Mary. They have no one to blame but themselves.
do you realize that you are informing a prejudice and a biased in the general population? That people are going to read this and you're reinforcing the sense of hopelessness? As history has shown none of the polling showed Trump winning and he did. perhaps we ought to relegate this to that same pile of incorrect data. there is a certain amount of theory around self-fulfilling prophecy. but why on Earth would you wish to prophesize a second term is beyond me. I suppose an exciting race will give you all something to write about but if he does actually win it won't help the average citizen or this nation but thanks I hope your paper sells copy...
8
@Roscoe Well it's the truth. Should they lie?
With all due respect to Nate Cohn, his own data shows that Trump is behind in every “blue wall” battleground state he won in 2016, and that, since the election, those numbers have trended away from him.
Even if everything else remained exactly the same as in the last election, if Trump were simply to fail to win Florida and one ‘blue wall’ state, he loses. If he does win in Florida but fails to win Pennsylvania and Michigan, he loses.
Trump may indeed persevere enough to win all of the same blue wall states again –and to win reelection, he'll have to– but it is nonsense to suggest that he is nearly assured of victory, especially considering his self-destructive and petulant refusal to grow his base.
11
@itsmecraig Its not so much as Trump growing his base as it is the Democrats losing their moderates and Independents.
10
I am a suburban housewife, engineer, lifelong Democrat, Clinton voter. I find myself lurching to the right.
The Democratic candidates’ universal alignment with decriminalization of border crossing and healthcare for non-citizens is to me a marker that these candidates are members of the far left tribe. This tribe has had a direct harmful impact on my family’s and friends’ well being in recent years that Trump’s rhetoric has not.
The far left marches masked in our streets, violently attacking dissenters. They use “sit down & shut up tactics” such as labeling moderates in our schools who have spent their life’s work in civil rights and education reform “white supremacists”. They have adopted a new form of bigotry and fascism that attacks reason & dialog. They have forced a non-science based doctrine of gender choice into our second grade classroom causing distress and confusion among children. They have pushed gender confirmation therapy as a first line treatment for gender dysphoria, blocking puberty in children, rendering them sterile, chopping away healthy tissue, committing them to a lifetime of hormones & medical treatments. They have taken away our option to enroll our children in under attended school districts with great rankings, ripping away the option for kids at the worst performing city schools to attend nationally ranked schools. They have prevented private college English classrooms from teaching classical literature.
I fear this new left.
40
@Owl of Athena I do not share most of your viewpoints, but this was very clearly articulated, and helped me to see a range of issues that consolidate into another perspective. Thank you.
15
Forget the analysis and all the numbers. This is all you need to know: if the democratic platform includes Medicare for all without a public option, healthcare for illegal immigrants and decriminalizing illegal crossings Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania go Red. Another 4 years of tRump and the end of the America as we know it.
20
I agree Trump wants to end America as we know it. He says that he wants to make America Great Again.
Now is the time to put aside hope and dismiss despair. Begin to act. Donate to democratic grassroots campaigns in sunbelt / rust belt states. May our anger drive us into action. I began to act by giving donations to the DNC’s Democratic Unity Fund. This fundraiser will be used to build a strong grassroots campaign for our democratic presidential candidate to win back the Presidency. I repeat-give what you can to the democratic grassroots fundraising machines, redirect your friends away from despair and into anger, and tell as many of your friends as you can to contribute to the democratic unit fund. Never forget: We are the people who will perform our democratic principles.
10
My guess is that by 2050, it'll be obvious to all but the most willfully obtuse that burning fossil fuels is a bad idea. A second term of the Billion Dollar Loser and his lackeys will move us closer to that. His work of weakening or destroying America's traditional alliances shall continue apace, particularly since the rest of the world will get to see that it's not a fluke, it's a pattern. I imagine at some point they'll take away Uncle Sam's control of the purse strings.
Assuming, of course, that his base is enough to swing the election, and that they retain control of the legislate-by-acreage senate.
4
All these erudite discussions re: polls and electoral possibilities as if it were 20 years ago.
Hello People! We have a foreign influence at play! What makes you think this will be a "fair" election? Our deadbeat, deeply corrupt government has done NOTHING to change this fact. Biden, Trump or the Woman on the Moon--your vote doesn't matter anymore!
10
Thanks to the current announced Dem liberal socialist policies, not to mention the efforts of The Squad, my guess is that Trump has a lock on 2020.
16
This is interesting, but very speculative and focused pretty heavily on a single data point, the president's popularity. We have a long way to go, yet. Nonetheless, this does suggest some things to watch as we go forward.
5
The best reason yet to abolish the electoral college in favor of a simple vote count!
Not doing this long ago has been a serious mistake and has now cost the most criminal price. Because of the devious application of the electoral college all three branches of US government are now able to keep themselves in office so that there is no longer any check and balance as determined by the Constitution to be a necessary aspect of just rule.
The worst function of the electoral college is to disenfranchise all votes cast in opposition to the prevailing vote of the state of residence.
Disenfranchisement is in direct violation of the basic premise of equal rights.
7
Sober analysis. This is not the time for third party candidates or for vanity voting for only saintly perfect candidates who perfectly mirror oneself in every single way.
14
Thank you for this column, so to avoid lulling the public into complacency a second time around.
10
The only person who has a chance to beat Trump, is Sanders. I have personally witnessed his support in places like, Kansas!
3
I'm glad to see this article because it will tell Democrats that they cannot take a win for granted. Trump had two big advantages in 2016. Many Democrats, up until the very election moment, thought the Hillary Clinton had the election easily won. And second, there were many voters who didn't like Donald Trump, but disliked Hillary even more. There will be no such advantage for Trump in 2020. Those who despised Trump in 2016 despise him much more now. And those who didn't vote because that thought Hillary was a sure winner, or on the other hand disliked Hillary so much that they voted for Trump or someone else or didn't vote at all will not make the same mistake again.
9
Sorry, this is not a compelling piece of analysis. What if, maybe, coulda/shoulda/woulda. Bottom line, some one got paid to make a deadline, but actually didn't have anything insightful to say.
3
A novel idea: nominate a centrist democrat that appeals to all Americans to run against the incumbent instead of radical extremists. Have the candidate appear regularly on Fox News. Eschew radical solutions.
7
Yes, and this makes Nancy Pelosi’s strategy of ‘not stirring the pot’ until you can overturn Trump more and more of a losing strategy.
Pelosi is not always right. This is one of the times that she most assuredly is not.
And, to the detriment of the entire nation!
2
For heaven's sake there are only five states that really matter: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Why isn't Mr. Cohn looking into current polling data on those specific states and determining whether any of the Democratic contenders is dominating Trump there? Everything else is extraneous.
7
@stu freeman Yep. Joe Biden crushes trump as of now in PA polling.
3
What gets me is how utterly nonsensical analyses like this would come off if we actually gave the presidency to whomever won more votes in the country.
If we were already electing a president through a National popular vote, I doubt that anyone would be able to make a reasonable argument for switching to electoral college system we have now. People right now can only defend the merits of an electoral college because it’s easy we have there, and people tend to be biased by the status quo. If we abolished it, future generations of Americans would likely view it with the same confusion and ridicule as we view elections in Ancient Rome.
6
i have to say that the reasoning is flawed. too many hypotheticals. the last graph about turn out is very telling. the dems have to choose a moderate and get the turn out and that ll be it.
12
In the twenty-first century the importance of the electoral college has come to considerably outweigh that of the popular vote. Two presidential terms, Bush1 and Trump, out of five, have won while losing by more than 1% of the popular vote.
To me, this means two very bad things: 1.) Trump will likely win a second term and 2.) we are no longer a majoritarian democracy.
12
And if President Trump wins the popular vote he will win by an electoral college landslide because the deepest blue states have pledged to give all their votes to the winner of the popular vote. Remember, Bush won the popular vote the second time around.
5
Not true. The National Popular Vote compact has not yet gone into force. I’m guessing you oppose it, despite fundamentally misunderstanding how it works?
6
The last of the white nationalists (largely my generation) are getting more and more anxious about becoming a minority in their own land. Trump masterfully feeds that fear. I'm pretty sure we are not looking closely at ourselves and the current temperment of the country. If we were, we'd be ashamed.
67
But it’s not their own land. And that’s the point.
3
@Dan Barthel Is that an unreasonable fear?? To be displaced and replaced? This is a democracy, which means numbers equal power. Should White people rejoice at being made powerless? Do we not have interests of our own? Like keeping our nation and our sovereignty?
2
@Andrew
"...of our own"?
No, you don't, that is the point. America is not about any particular group or culture. We look out for everyone equally, by not giving a preference for anyone's tribe or culture. We set policy and law to give everyone a fair chance and an equal footing.
If your particular tribe loses numbers, and therefore power, you do not get special considerations to keep power anyway. The American Experiment is not about your tribe, it's about everyone collectively.
3
Let's get rid of the electoral college! If yet again a less qualified, even dangerous candidate becomes president while losing the popular vote I will be forever disillusioned by America's supposed democracy. Imagine how different our world would be if Gore had been president? I weep.
62
@Ilona your statement assumes that the majority popular vote winner would not be dangerous. I fear the rabid majority mob more.
6
@Ilona
America is a constitutional republic in which it's "citizens" are granted inalienable rights by their constitution. In a democracy those inalienable rights can be taken away by the "majority".
So that you may remember the difference in the future, here's a simple comparison. In a pure Democracy, the majority sets the rules and has the power to take away the rights of the minority. In a Constitutional Republic, the mob can't easily remove the rights of the minority.
"To consort with the crowd is harmful; there is no person who does not make some vice attractive to us, or stamp it upon us, or taint us unconsciously therewith. Certainly, the greater the mob with which we mingle, the greater the danger.
“The young character, which cannot hold fast to righteousness, must be rescued from the mob; it is too easy to side with the majority,”
“Much harm is done by a single case of indulgence or greed; the familiar friend, if he be luxurious, weakens and softens us imperceptibly; the neighbor, if he be rich, rouses our covetousness; the companion, if he be slanderous, rubs off some of his rust upon us, even though we be spotless and sincere. What then do you think the effect will be on character, when the world at large assaults it! You must either imitate or loathe the world.
Lucius Annaeus Seneca - Epistulae Morales ad Lucilium
This is the stuff of nightmares. The only people we are more afraid of than Trump are his voters. One way to avoid this catastrophe is to get out and vote. So stop spinning worst case scenarios and exercise your franchise. And if that fails, move to Costa Rica
62
@frannym The only way that getting out and voting means anything is if you live in a swing state, thanks to the Electoral College and to how polarized the country is!
2
I will always welcome articles like this, everyday from now until Election Day 2020. In 2016, articles forecasting a landslide victory for HRC put the electorate to sleep.
45
... and that’s why we need to get rid of the electoral college. I done know why we cling to these old outdated ideas
30
It is not an idea, it is part of the US Constitution for good reasons.
3
I guess that the Democrats will pick a candidate based on the fringe leftist voters who want to eliminate all private insurance and have an effectively open border policy. Then Trump will wipe the floor with that Democrat and win decisively. I am rooting for the Democrats but have almost no faith at all in them.
19
This is a rather frightening analysis because of its reasoning.
What if the president is re-elected by the Electoral College but loses the popular vote by an even more decisive margin than he did in 2016? If this happens, and the House is returned to the Republicans, the Electoral College will be here to stay.
Donald Trump will see that it’s run through the red state legislatures to trot out and a new Constitutional Amendment to solidify—in—perpetuity—the College forever, erasing any future chance to overturn it by a Constitutional Amendment. Add in the Supreme Court’s recent deference to its own Republican Party in refusing to take up the obvious imbalance of representation (gerrymandering) and: voila! Republicans rule. Always. “Free elections” would mean nothing.
If this all comes to pass, expect the Koch Bottles and ALEC to push amendments to ban term limits and eliminate the 14th and 25th Amendments. We’ll have a racist, right-wing oligarchy.
Oh, sorry; I think we have one now.
39
@Red Sox, ‘04, ‘07, ‘13, ‘18 You are correct, but missed one thing. Trump will campaign to remove the fillibuster.
1
I watched the preview for the sequel to "It" last night.
This is a lot scarier.
15
For Democrats, Russia was the cause of their loss in 2016. No matter who they nominate, the Electoral College will be their excuse in 2020.
9
No, the Electoral College was also an "excuse" in 2016 - if you consider the popular vote just a quaint historical footnote.
3
@William
No. Hillary Clinton and the mendacity of the DNC was the cause of their loss in 2016.
The wokester ‘Squad’, along with an agenda that can only be described as ludicrous (as recently witnessed during the Democratic debates) will be the cause of their loss in 2020.
5
You seem to have forgotten that the electoral college already did give Trump the last election. That and Russian interference as the kicker. Will it happen again? Will the twitter troll lose the popular vote by even larger margins than against Clinton yet have the collage give him the election? It’s possible of course & just as possible that Putin will give his sock puppet a hand again. Nothing is a sure thing except that Trump the grifter king will lead his merry fools down the garden path win or lose, hopefully lose, badly.
2
like it or not he'll be re-elected and believe me, I'm "not a fan."
13
How long will the US have to endure an Electoral vote for President? Popular vote!
18
@bob
A cursory glance at history shows us the majority often come down on the wrong side. It's human nature to accept apparent consensus as absolute fact.
Trump has many issues, but is it better to elect a leader who shows more regard for the rights of non-citizens shirking the law of the land than tax paying law abiding citizens? Most rational people feel deeply for the plight of the less fortunate who are dealing with challenging circumstances.
You don't build a successful business, family or country by giving everything away for free because there are less fortunate people in the world. Nor would you accept any and all potential employees/members because they are really struggling. You would surely be out of business in short order if you implemented these practices. Culture is a real thing be it in a family, business or country.
If a bunch of people want to work for a particular company, want to be members of some club or immigrate to particular country, it's probably because they are seeking a better life. The unfortunate fact is there will always be less fortunate. You can't alter a company, culture or family to accommodate everyone who'd like to join and expect it to remain intact.
In southern NH we often acquire transplants from Mass fleeing high taxes and home prices. They decry the cost of living and can't believe how much more they can get for their money here. Unfortunately they carry with them the same failed ideologies in which they flee.
7
All I can say is, that if the predictions for a recession come to fruition, perhaps Trump can be defeated in his own backyard
14
Nate was dead wrong in 2016, forecasting a 97% chance of HRC winning. Let's hope he is wrong again.
35
@Laurence Hauben
She did win. By more than three MILLION votes.
3
@Moehoward
Yes. And in other news, the Broncos led the Steelers in rushing, but still lost the game because somehow, the Steelers had more points.
4
@Laurence Hauben It doesn't matter to the validity of your comment, but this is a different Nate, actually. The old was was Nate Silver. This new one is Nate Cohen.
2
Just proves the electoral college has got to go.
15
Thanks. Now totally depressed.
26
Abolish this 'one acre, one vote' nonsense. Abolish the Electoral College. As an American living in Europe, I'm constantly reminded of how absurd it is that someone can lose an election and still win.
40
Dear People, please stop bringing up the popular vote. It’s irrelevant. It’s like counting the time of possession in football, or the number of games won in a tennis match, or the number of tanks destroyed in a war. The rules of the game determine who the winner is.
42
True. We need to stop teaching kids that we live in a democratic country.
4
@PaulN
But rules in sport get changed all the time - that's the point.
4
That’s fine if the game is played freely and fairly, and if the rules don’t favor one side prior to the first pitch. And no team should be granted a victory due to outside influence, obstruction, manipulation of the score, or by simply buying a victory outright.
6
Once the Democrats close ranks behind a nominee and a VP, the map here will change. Imagine Sherrod Brown of Ohio being tapped as VP by Harris, or Buttigieg selecting Harris or Warren. Or Biden Buttigieg. Take your pick. Any combination is formidable and would not only reduce Trump-Pence in stature immediately, it would change the dynamic of the race and recalibrate the electoral map. I don’t understand the hyperventilating among rank-and-file Democrats about circular firing squads and other self-defeating talk. The party is going through a necessary and welcome exercise in defining itself. Once we unite behind a nominee, our collective energy and will to overturn this pathetic administration will be overwhelming.
21
I’m sorry. I’m a progressive and like all these candidates. None has the stature and charisma to take on trump. Maybe Biden Raimondo?
2
@AlNewman
Reassuring words. Oh My God I Hope So.
@AlNewmanc My God I hope you are right!
Too many people in this echo chamber still have not learned the simple fact that you have to compete in all 50 states to win the White House.
And you do not do that by having a candidate spend time fundraising in safe blue cities days before an election.
Nor do you win an election by holding feel-good rallies only in front of college students or safe blue audiences.
Nor do you win an election by picking an ideologue, a racial justice warrior, a policy wonk or a flim-flam artist promising the sky.
You run a moderate that has appeal to as many voters as possible, not just just the liberal coastal elites.
And that candidate must campaign hard to places outside of liberal America's comfort zone.
Right now, there is really only one candidate among the Democratic Party gaggle that would fit this description.
Hopefully, the liberals among us will figure that out quickly because this nation cannot afford another four years of Donald Trump.
44
@Mike M. Completely agree. Stop talking about Medicare for All, Green New Deal, and Free College all of which will add trillions to the debt which is already 22 trillion. And, for the live of God, stop taking anti-gun money from Bloomberg. If the Dems embraced the 2A and picked ONE major issue, i.e., health care that keeps families solvent when faced with serious health issues, they will pull over moderate red voters to check D on the ballot.
8
@Mike M. “Too many people in this echo chamber still have not learned the simple fact that you have to compete in all 50 states to win the White House.”
Sorry, but you have it exactly backwards. Thanks to the EC you have to compete in no more than 5-10 “swing” states to win the White House. The vast majority of states -- and voters -- are irrelevant.
@Mike M.
"Nor do you win an election by picking an ideologue.....or a flim-flam artist promising the sky."
How did the Republicans do it?
I stopped reading when I checked my state.There is no possible way Trump has a 43% approval rating in Colorado.
19
@Jennifer
Agree with you, Jennifer. I lived in Denver before retiring to Durango. Even my town of Durango AND La Plata County voted TWICE for Obama while Denver did as well. Trump does not not have anything close to a 43 percent approval rate in our state. We are a purple state, to be sure. And Cory Gardner is in big trouble.
Meanwhile, the former Republican columnist, George Will. just last week recommended Michael Bennet as the best selection for our nominee.
1
I've lived in Wisconsin my whole life. I've voted for the Democratic candidate in every election, starting in 1972. Even I am skittish about replacing private insurance with Medicare. If the Democratic Party nominates a candidate who raised his or her hand that he or she would replace private insurance with Medicare for all, I'll guarantee Wisconsin will go for Trump. Trump would also pick up Minnesota, and keep the rest of the rust belt.
34
@Jack
Every year in my 40 year career, my company sponsored health insurance went up in cost, covered less or was limited to narrow networks. Stress of being uninsured when between jobs. We pay 20% of health care cost to fund exorbitant CEO compensation and overhead. There are over 30 countries with systems that insure almost everyone at half the cost. None of these systems are perfect, but all have better outcomes. I just don’t understand why so many people cling to a system that wastes so much money for no benefit.
35
@Jack
Healthcare in a private set up is for profit. Excellent if a person in work force have health insurance. What if an opioid dependent seeks medical help without ACA in your state will do? Your state is not immuned to this scourge. You have to look at a bigger picture.
2
If you look at the "light pink" and "light green" states in this story and ask which Dem candidate is best positioned to take them (and away from Trump), the answer was clear in teh 2016 primaries and in polling now-- it's Bernie Sanders, populist vs. populist.
4
@David in the minds of Republicans, it's populist v. socialist. A win for Trump.
3
@David the Feel the Burn voters helped Trump get elected. They were stubborn and foolish. They did not want someone from the establishment. This country is so NOT ready for a left , socialist government. You may as wear Magna hats!
Our country would be totally ruined if Trump won another term. This is why the Democrats have to come together and be stronger than they've been so far. They need the verve and strength of AOC and her cohorts. They need articulate and forceful Democrats to speak out about the destructiveness of Trump: to immigrants; to law; to, perhaps most importantly, the environment; to the very fabric of the nation. AND we need IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS to bring focus to the sins of Trump.
9
@EKB
Of which country do you speak? When Mexico starts accepting and financially supporting poor and struggling Americans and Canadians (of which there are many) then you can talk about destructiveness. I work for a company that rejects many potential job applicants because they are not qualified nor is the business a charity. Doing so would destroy the morale, culture and profitability of the company.
Banks tried to give loans to anyone who desired a home and you see what happened in 2008. Policies, laws and practices exist for good reasons in both companies and countries.
I hear your neighbor is struggling to keep up with his mortgage and is without a car. You and your wife have two and he has none. To give him one would be the right thing to do correct? Maybe just to borrow until he gets back on his feet or maybe forever because he really deserves it.
Either way, he is in need and you have enough. Seeing his/your old car parked in the driveway all day and at the local bar every night might make you question your generosity. Especially when you are now Ubering to work at 6am.
Would any reasonable person give a car to a stranger when someone in their own family is in desperate need? And yet here we are, with homeless American citizens and veterans receiving less aid and attention than illegal immigrants.
Why is it that people try the same thing over and over expecting different results? Like hypocritical carnivores decrying all slaughter. Its a Shame
I wish everyone would stop trashing the Electoral College, a mechanism that prevents us from being ruled by a small number of more populous states. Particularly obnoxious is the comment, “my vote doesn’t count”, which shows only the lack of understanding by people who make it. A Presidential election is actually 50 separate elections and a President is, and always has been, elected by states. It isn’t, and should not be, a national popularity contest. Losing in a particular state doesn’t mean your vote doesn’t count, it means you lost. If you would not like to live in a country ruled exclusively by CA and NY, the Electoral College is your best bet.
34
@Larry. Since my first vote for Walter Mondale, I’ve voted Democrat in red states. Not once did I feel like it mattered. Yet, I always vote. Not once has my state reflected my beliefs. There are people in California and New York who feel like I do, but are on the other side.
As it is, things are so slanted for a Confederate win, when the actual attitudes of people skew Center Left on the break down of issues. Yet, in some places they will vote GOP no matter what I’m sick of it. The hold over from slavery needs to go away. It offers no protection from a demagogue getting into power. It also offers incentive to cheat and hack in a few places (like Florida 2000) and secure the win. It needs to GO. States will still have representation in Congress and locally that reflects the attitude of the state. We need the president to reflect the desires of everyone!
8
@Larry
Id rather not live in a country dominated by Wyoming, Montana and Kentucky.
Give me CA or NY any day. Those two states actually PRODUCE things, close to all the others combined.
15
The electoral college was originally established because ordinary citizens were considered too stupid to vote for themselves. Instead, they elected respectable smart people who would choose for them. We do not have a real direct democracy, and all votes are not equally valued because of it.
And fyi all states have 2 senators whether they are barely populated like Wyoming, or economic powerhouses like New York. That gives the barely populated states their disproportionate influence. Of course, Washington DC gets no senators despite having a greater population than Wyoming.
5
It’s 16 months before the election! This kind of “analysis” is crazy. We have no idea who Trump will be running against, we don’t know what the national or world situation will be in a year, and the assumptions here are the purest of speculation.
14
@Sonia Jaffe Robbins
Thanks for talking me down, I was getting ready to give up...let's hope there is time to stop Trump!
2
The electoral college system must be ended. It is a threat to our country and all we stand for. Trump isn’t must be stopped or I fear our nation will break apart.
10
@Dave O’Brien how is it a threat and all we stand for? Wouldn't a better approach be for the Dems to run a more moderate candidate who is palatable to Independents and economically moderate Republicans? Ya know, normal. Someone who can win under the rules.
7
Joe Biden is the best bet. He doesn't excite the millennials and he won't drive Hillary-level turnout but he can win Florida. He can win Pennsylvania. He can win Iowa and Ohio and Arizona. He can do it. He's the only one who can.
18
In my experience, people vote against a candidate rather than for a candidate. We have a two party system. That's it. Your choice is either A or B.
So, who do you dislike more: Trump or Omar/AOC et al.? And so far, Omar/AOC et al are at the top of the Democratic ticket. Trump, with the help of the media and the Democrats themselves, have put them there.
My bet is, that unless the Democratic party clearly and decisively distances itself from the Omar/AOC crowd it will lose, and it will lose big time.
12
We will have nobody to blame but ourselves if trump is re-elected in 2020.
24
Excellent analysis. Speculative, of course, but much about the future has to be. And changes in the Electoral College are extremely unlikely to happen before 2020, so we have to make the best of our current system. As this article - and others - make clear, if you live in a battleground (tipping point) state your influence on the presidential outcome will be much greater than folks in other states. If you don't like that, your option for increasing your influence is largely limited to moving to states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Florida, assuming you don't live there already.
But on a brighter note, most of us have a more balanced influence on our members of Congress. And Congress, especially the Senate, will be critical in 2020.
10
You can’t beat Trump, I say this as someone who can’t stand him, but he seems to be a genius politician. Clearly not in understanding policies, but in controlling the voting public, I don’t think anyone can beat him. It’s depressing. I’m starting to just accept him as president until he decides otherwise
22
Please don’t give up.
this is unacceptable thinking.
Perhaps we ought to talk about abolishing the Electoral College. For all the mental gymnastics performed to justify its continuation, at bottom we have a system where the most popular candidate regularly loses. If a majority wants a new President then a new President we ought to have. It’s just that simple.
17
Mr. Cohn, unlike you in 2016- certain Clinton would win - my take was that it would be an outsider- either Trump or Sanders. That’s my call for 2020 as well. Politics as usual has been hurting too many people and their pocketbooks for far too long.
5
Wishful magical thinking led to the 2016 result.
That something as simple and direct as a vote can be over-ruled by the output of a mumbo-jumbo machine called the Electoral College is very confusing. It seems to be creaing just another process to be manipulated.
20
What is striking in this analysis is that it underlines how dismally democracy has failed in the US. The most grotesque US President in history, someone who is palpably unfit for the office, still has a fighting chance to win. The real question is if and how the Electoral College or even the US itself could survive when millions of people vote against and actively despise -for excellent reasons - a man who wins the Presidency just by winning the Electoral College. If that happens again, a number of US states may well need to consider declaring independence and walking away from what has clearly become a failed state.
28
@Shaun Narine I agree! We are now 3 states: 1) Trumpland, 2) Squadland, and 3) for lack of a more precise term, Bloombergland.
3
@Shaun Narine
Good luck with that, didn't end well last time.
1
The black voters longed for the Obama era but that is history now. Biden will not fill that void like version Obama 2.0 or Obamacare version 2.0. It has to move forward with courage. Status idealist Obama era can not survive the toxic era of Donald. There are other Democratic presidential aspirants with novel and working proposal policies against a policy anemic of this administration. These candidates can beat Donald. Governing by the past era is futility. Let us look forward.
11
Your analysis may be what it is; what we need are less prognostications of doom and more a reckoning with the crisis facing our whole political system, ie, the atrophy of common sense. Mr T is poison! Political analysis, however shrewd, will not allay that’s truth.
9
This is what’s 25 years of Republican playing the small and long game. Once Clinton won they worked the electoral college backwards... leading to gerry meandering... opening up corporate dollars... leading to shifting balance from the individual voter... leading to wins.
Dems must understand how a Republic works. We are not a democracy. Work the system and over time it will work for Dems.
12
Thanks for making this week such an upper (sarcasm intended).
What’s the point of this so far in advance of the 2020 election? Weren’t you the voice of utter confidence until 2/3 through Election Day that HRC had it in the bag?
The only possible effect of such prognosticators at this stage is to demoralize the majority of Americans who are appalled at this administration for both its words and deeds. The other effect is to further embolden the dangerous right so well exemplified in North Carolina.
13
Sadly, the Electoral College is the ONLY rule of law Trump adheres to.
11
so basically, you are telling us that our vote doesn't count, if we go by the electoral college. it does not bode well for people to go to the polls if so few states hold the electoral advantage. what a travesty we have in our elections.
15
This is why the Democrats should impeach him NOW. If that's the case, then the argument that impeachment would hand the election to Trump doesn't hold much water. They have nothing to lose.
7
Your analysis may be what it is; what we need are less prognostications of doom and more a reckoning with the crisis facing our whole political system, ie, the atrophy of common sense. Mr T is poison! Political analysis, however shrewd, will not allay that truth.
2
It's long past time to get rid of the Electoral College. It was set up to assure that nobody who is unfit could ever become President.
That was from a simpler time when votes were carried on horseback to be counted; somebody could have messed with the ballots, and someone unfit might have gotten in. Now it's electronic and instantaneous, and doesn't need a "college" to be a watchdog against abuses.
And we've proven by this sad excuse for a president, that somebody unfit can get in; he didn't get the majority of the votes, but gerrymandering and the electoral college got him in anyway. For that matter, the last Republican President also got in despite having fewer votes than the other candidate.
Time to get rid of the Electoral College.
And time to get rid of gerrymandering too !
21
Well this is about 5 months too early. The Democrats do have a conundrum here. They need a populist and an authentic one to compete with Trump in the rust belt (and they only have two of them running) but they may need more of a centrist to compete in the Sunbelt and Pennsylvania.
But the other thing you don't factor in is just how weak of candidate Hillary Clinton was and how well she did considering. Trump is an economic downturn away from turning into electoral toast. And he knows it. He will do anything—anything—to keep the economic indicators, if not the actual economy, buoyant and that is likely to get him and his crew of incompetents in trouble down the line. Like I say, come back in December and we'll discuss.
8
@Wah: She was not weak, she won the popular vote.
I dont care WHO it is that the Democrats nominate- I will devote every possible moment of my time to getting out the BLUE vote- for our BLUE planet-If that means calling all day every day- calling the people I know in those Rust Belt states- and I know a few- and they are GOP who held their nose and voted for Trump- mostly because of abortion. And I will tell them that the honest truth is the GOP is selling out our future for pure greed- that even the military KNOWS the climate is our biggest challenge- there will be nothing, - nothing nothing nothing left for our children if we dont reverse climate change. I am not going to sit around and read the polls, and complain about how the campaigns are run, or speculate what the Dem candidate should do- it is up to me, and up to YOU to do everything you can, that is DEMOCRACY . If Trump has 4 more years of selling out all our natural resources to the lowest bidders, aka his buddies, we are fini.
27
@Marika H Heck, we're almost there now.
I like how we're finally admitting that a large share of trump voters support him over his positions on 'hot button issues like race and immigration. "
Remember when we were supposed to pretend that the election was a referendum on aloof coastal elitism, or the loss of coal mining jobs numbering in the tens of thousands, or some other much worse explanation than racism and xenophobia? Glad we're over that. It was tedious.
9
“Progressives” need to take a few US civics courses on how our government works. What they don’t realize or don’t talk about is that Texas will be in play in 6-8 years. Arizona too. Florida may become be reliably blue, depending on how much the retiree population balances it’s ever growing diversity. But the inconvenient truth is they’re not there yet in 2020 - and instead can simply make the no-brainer choice to moderate and get PA, MI and WI over the finish line. I mean, no matter how Democratic the electoral map gets in the future, what “progressive” legislation will ever see the light of day if there are 7 conservative SC Justices, an even more gerrymandered congressional map, and a Senate in which every non-liberal state is purged of every last Democrat? Again Political Science 101.
6
I think an article like this is incredibly premature and is just a simple way to pump fear into the populace. What does an article like this do to a voter who didn't vote in the last election and is on the fence about voting in this election? Answer: it deters them from voting! Why should they vote if he's going to won anyway? That's what they will ask. A few very important factors are missed: A) We do not have a Democratic nominee yet and B) the circumstances in 2016 are different than now. Different opponent (not Hillary) and different behavior with power (Trump Republicans). I believe there are many swing voters and true Republicans who are ready to join blue voters and get this guy out of here. So no, NYT. Simmer down.
6
Remember who Trump really is... not the person(?) he's selling.
John Gartner, Ph.D. is the founder of Duty to Warn, an organization intent on warning our country that we are in dire trouble due to our president’s mental instability. More than 60,000 mental health professionals have signed John’s petition, which states:
“We, the undersigned mental health professionals, believe in our professional judgment that Donald Trump manifests a serious mental illness that renders him psychologically incapable of competently discharging the duties of President of the United States. And we respectfully request he be removed from office, according to article 4 of the 25th amendment to the Constitution, which states that the president will be replaced if he is ‘unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”
President Trump argues he is above the law. A thousand prosecutors say he’s wrong [LaTimes]
As of Wednesday, more than 1,000 former federal prosecutors had signed a statement explaining that, in their professional judgment and based on the facts described in special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s report, President Trump would have been criminally charged with obstruction of justice if he were not the president. This public outcry from such a large group of prosecutors — who have served under Republican and Democratic presidents — is unprecedented and indicative of overwhelming expert agreement on the evidence and law supporting charges against Trump.
16
All this makes me wonder why the College Electoral system is still in force. To an outsider, it seems cumbersome and in the present case undemocratic.
But I suppose many countries have their votining oddities.
1
So depressing.
How can we call ourselves a democracy when a small number of voters in a small number of States can determine the outcome of this epochal election? For that matter, Gerrymandering has reduced competitive House seats to a few handfuls.
And Democrats tend to see each segment of their constituency as monolithic. And that is a grave mistake. Many African Americans are deeply religious and some have traditionally had difficulties with LGBT issues. Many Hispanics are also deeply religious and hold conservative views on abortion. And some Hispanics who have been here for a long time may not feel a strong affinity with liberal immigration policies. The Cuban-American community is a good example. Millennials may be more socially progressive than their parents, but may be more skeptical of expensive government programs that may come due during their working lives. Hillary made some big mistakes there. Let's not allow history to repeat itself.
3
How depressing. The Electoral College was designed when the only eligible voters were white male landowners. It is time for it to go. A constitutional amendment isn't even required. A few more states just need to adopt the National Popular Vote Act.
Start the lawsuits NOW to eliminate the aggressive Republican-sponsored voter suppression efforts seen in 2018.
6
Lovely news (sarcasm). This is troubling; even if he loses, he's just going to lie about voter fraud -- while he gets help from foreign agents and while he party suppresses voters. However, I'm more concerned about Congress. The SC has given liscence for continued gerrymandering in the House, and the Senate will be hard to capture due to the disproportionate power held by White-victimization, faux-patriotism voters in states with small populations...you know, the kinds who chant "send her back" while insisting they're not racist...and who claim to represent the "American way" despite having no apparent clue that the Founders were basically the secular progressives of their time. The Republican Party rejects constitutional democracy, and they've united not behind a creed, but behind a tyrant, fully embracing the cult of personality. And, if Trump refuses to abdicate, they'll justify it without question. Our republic is doomed if we dont capture the House, Senate, WH, and get several openings on the SC...and capture many state houses to prevent gerrymandering and voter intimidation by the not-so-Grand Old Party. So many things have to go right.
Hey Dems: I don't care if you're left or center; fight like Western civilization depends on you...and that goes for every office on down to town and school board elections.
8
I do not put a lot of credence in Nate Cohn's forecasting ability.
And November 2020 is a long way away. So sit back an enjoy the ride because as Thelma and Louise showed us, that is what we are doing.
2
Keep doing what you're doing Dems. Sounds like everything is going according to plan. Can't wait for the next Trump victory.
4
So, he could win, but he could also lose big. Thanks for the super-insightful analysis.
6
I hope I'm wrong in thinking that the electoral college system could actually push some states to separate from the US.
1
@Gaston. If Alabama and Kentucky want to secede, I’m all for it. Can the rest of the country vote them out? I mean, by popular vote, not the rigged Electoral College.
1
What sort of revolution may take place in America, if Trump wins again in the electoral college, but loses the popular vote?
How will this play out? I'm afraid to think of it.
2
The price of freedom was eternal vigilance. Freedom ended with the electoral college and or the federal reserve.
@NewsReaper
Freedom ended with the federal reserve, period, full stop. The electoral college however was well thought safeguard against mob rule.
Unfortunately people in general are too easily swayed by what seems to them popular opinion. Today more than ever the consensus of the majority can be easily manipulated and directed. Abolishment of the electoral college would lead to a socialist America and in turn hasten the decay of a once great nation.
2
I look at that map and see the opposite. It looks to me like Texas, Arizona and North Carolina are on the precipice of becoming swing states. Imagine Republicans having to play defence in those states, still having to fight hard in traditional swing states and absolutely no hope of making inroads in Blue States. How is that an advantage for them? That leaves them the Deep South, Appalachia, the Great Plains states and Idaho. Looks like a pretty narrow path to victory to me.
3
We know he will lose the popular vote even with a strong economy. It seems wise for democrats to focus on senate and house seats as the presidency requires us to sign up for attacking immigrants because of the electoral vote driving down our support.
The system is highly rigged to favor republicans.
6
@Mathias
The republicans have adapted their game plan to work with the system as it happens to be.
If the Democrats did the same, you would say, 'The system is highly rigged to favor democrats'.
Thank you for this map. Points out states to me in green that I will never visit.
5
Trump can definitely win, especially if the so called "Squad" is the face of the Democrats. Their brand of politics works in some districts, but it chases moderates that make up mostbof the party and independents away fast. I can't stand Trump, but that brand of Democrat is just as bad, for different reasons, in my view.
8
The Democrats' 2020 dilemma, in a nutshell:
If Sanders or Warren is the nominee, Democratic voters will flock to the polls, but the support for Sanders or Warren won't be sufficient to beat Trump.
OR
If Biden is the nominee, too many voters will stay home.
Either way, the Democrats lose and Trump wins. Unless he gets hit by a truck between now and November 2020, he's looking like a shoo-in.
8
Democrats need to wake up and evangelize women in the rust belts. More than men, it is women who in reality control the hearts and minds of the Trump voters. Instead of appealing to the readers of NYtimes, who anyway will mostly vote democratic, they might want to focus on the simple needs of rural America. Understand the bleakness of their lives and strategize solutions to improve their present and future. Food, clothing and shelter have always formed the backbone of our societies, subsidize all three for struggling towns, flesh it out with education geared towards the needs of rural America, maybe polytechnic agricultural schools and special healthcare for farmers and heck even their livestock. The entire electoral college will be ours. And I will be happy with an increase in my taxes as a city dweller if my country can remain the land of the free.
Yes and please ladies of the party who are outliers let’s focus inwards on internal issues instead of incendiary issues. This election is not about radical change, it is about change of party. One that might lead to changes in other avenues. Let’s build this foundation together.
6
The Electoral College is gerrymandering on a national scale. The majority of people (and people of color who live mostly in urban areas) are not being represented.
It's time for one person, one vote. A few states always get to decide who becomes president, leaving the majority of people out of the process.
Look who we've got in the White House as a result of this anachronistic system. It has to go.
6
I'm feeling more and more like the lessons I learned in school about our democracy have less and less relevance to this country I have been living in for over seven decades.
3
A lot of good figures there. The key context here is that ANGER has been the dominant mood among the general electorate since at least 2016 but especially among the electorate in the specific states focused on here. Now as in 2016, the Trumpicans tap into this anger through a strategy of racial polarization. How do the Democrats tap into this anger? I’m convinced it’s through a strategy of class polarization. This they must do. Not tapping into this anger is like going into a cooking competition with assigned ingredients and refusing to use said ingredients. A recipe for defeat. Essentially the vision must be oligarchy’s head on a spike. The first and foremost advantage for Democrats is that this strategy rests on the truth as to what the cause of these voters’ problems are, versus the disconnected scapegoating of others based on race. The additional benefit of this strategy is that class polarization can be expanded to include and attack Trump directly. Do what must be done Dems, nominate the candidate who is truly committed to this course of action and can best see it through.
2
The Democrates appeared to my untrained eye to attack each other right at the opening gate. I say untrained, because I am not a U.S. citizen, and I am more concerned with my personal life to dig deep to get all the facts. That said, I saw sabotage all over the place.
And all this is happening while I see nothing that well stop Trump.
Part of this is due to the increasing intensity of political polarization in U.S. politics and culture. It clouds people's thinking. Take a look at Pew research on the topic.
The other part is President Trump's mastery of manipulating this chasm to his betterment and his mastery of Social Media. The Democrats should stop ALL of this, and take a hard look at Trump, and do it with thoughtful humility, because there is a bit of pride that plays a part in their thinking and it's nobody's sweet heart.
3
The electoral college has to go. Americans need to have their votes count, and count fairly.
Two presidential elections in living memory have been thrown to the wrong candidate. This is not sustainable.
3
I think I’ve decided to start accepting Trump will be a two term president, I can’t see him losing. I’m just praying (and I’m an atheist), that it’s only 2 terms.
4
Repeal and replace the Electoral College. Actually, just repeal.
2
Nate Cohn was wrong about 2016. Statistics do not measure emotions well. Voting is an irrational act - an anonymous way to express your moral worldview.
President Carter was asked about 20 years ago for a prediction for the presidential election. He said "It depends on the mood of the country."
The mood is to return to normal and it will not change. That's why Biden will win the nomination and the election. People always want a sure thing.
2
I’ve got good friends in the vast, “ flyover” area of Central Pennsylvania- my native state. Trump has already been there ( Williamsport). Democratic candidates- listen up. Please don’t ignore these people- hard working good people. When there recently, I met a few looking at Warren, one old friend who “ knew” Warren would never win, and several who want Sanders. There are plenty of Trump voters there for sure, but they are ripe for the picking for a candidate with decent positions on kitchen table issues.
7
Trump won the electoral college by less than 100,000 votes in 3 states Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. What has changes since 2016? Well if the polls in those states are accurate, Trump is under water. Has his base grown? Well the 2018 congressional elections were a 9 million vote landslide for democrats. Demographic changes continue to favour democrats. And many Bernie supporters foolishly stayed at home in 2016 will vote in 2020. A low unemployment rate helps Trump, but the fallout from trade wars and increasing deficits may take its toll on the economy.
I believe the majority of Americans are decent and fed up with Trump dividing the country on racial lines and will give the republicans a well deserved boot.
5
Turnout, turnout, TURNOUT!
The reason Hillary didn't get enough votes in enough states had a lot to do with young people staying home and/or voting third party, and African American male voters not coming out in the numbers they did for Obama in the urban areas of PA, MI, NC, FL, and WI (and in MN, where Dems eked out the win). That is what needs to be addressed.
True, there are some people in the battleground states that went from Obama to Trump, but that is because (Comey statements notwithstanding) Trump actually ran to the LEFT of Hillary on economic issues like trade and Social Security. Enough economically hurting people believed Trump would fight for them to give him a shot--hopefully, they know better now.
The other votes Trump got--the bigot votes, the Evangelical votes, the anti-immigration votes--he's getting those again no matter what, so it matters little if outreach is made to them. But turn a few of those primarily economics voters, and give young people and African American/Hispanic American/Asian American reasons to go vote (and since turnout is still rather tribal, that has ticket-balancing implications) and Democrats can win going away.
So the DNC better be spending on the ground game--phone webs and carpools and text chains and social media blasts--and on lawyers to fight the voter suppression tactics you know are coming. That's how the win happens.
7
I wouldn't mind if Trump took a second term as long as the Democrats could take back the Senate and keep their majority in the house. Mitch McConnell needs to go. We can then stop Trump in his tracks and deal with him the way he needs to be dealt with.
It has become obvious that Trump is only a symptom of a far greater illness that starts and ends with McConnell.
6
Why we are even assuming he will be on the ballot is insane. He must not be on the ballot after inflicting so much damage on the country. If he's not on the ballot, the electoral college issue is a non-issue.
As I had stated prior it's an excellent article and I agree unfortunately. I called it for Trump in 2016 for the same reason as well as the results after the police shootings. What were to be legitimate protests turned out to be rioting, looting and starting fires all by would be Democratic supporters / voters. Trump called them out on it loud and clear and the videos were the proof.
That said the Democrats still have a chance. First, they have to stay away from illegal immigration with a ten foot pole. They can't cater to the illegal immigrant supporters. Stating as they all did, that they will allow an illegal immigrant to stay in America so long as he doesn't committ a crime much less giving them health care to boot.
They must convince the rust belt voters that they will be getting single payer health care. They don't need BLM t-shirts at their ralllies. Hopefully next weeks testimony by Robert Mueller will show the Independents who Donald Trump really is. Like it or not that is what they need.
If not the article is 100% correct.
2
Mr. Trump gets the credit for democratizing American democracy. He showed you don't need money to win a nationwide election, which in long run is good for the country.
2
If maybe could look what I pulled out of thin air.
Way to keep statistics fun.
So scientific.
Ever since the SCOTUS put its finger on the scales of the 2000 election by halting the vote count in Florida, this 5-4 majority of conservative jurists has foisted all manner of decisions defying logic, as well as settled law. Citizens United may be history's most mind-boggling descision coming out of that court as they reflected Mitt Romney's infamous gaff, "Corporations are also citizens, my friend" (or. words to that effect).
Disrupting what is unfair has yet to cross their minds. Most recently, the SCOTUS turned back the question of whether or not gerrymandering defies the will of the people.
These "originalists" use their devotion to the founders' original intent of the Constitution as if women should never been given the right to vote, or that slavery was a reasonable economic theory of free labor for maximum profits.
Then, with more than 50 years of planning and lobbying by The Heritage Foundation to secure one-party rule (their party, of course) the Electoral College is now the Swiss Army knife of the Republican Party. And with The Federalist Society influencing all Republican presidents on their court appointees, packing the courts with conservatives at local, state and federal levels. The fact that Republicans could convince the SCOTUS that the Voting Rights Act was obsolete, speaks volumes of the racism that has infiltrated the former party of Lincoln, giving Trump more than 90 percent of their support.
2020 has America on the edge extinction.
2
Trump has inadvertently set a trap for himself which will begin to spring by next year, as he replaces "Vote Republican" to "Vote for Me". The only evolutionary way forward for his teachings to his disciples is to get them to accept "their" country (not "ours") as intolerant of dissent and himself as the de facto provider of Laws (not the Constitution or the other two branches). Yes, there will be those who will continue to believe and worship him, but their numbers will dwindle dramatically and rapidly down to a cult. The cult of Trump.
1
If the democrats can get the vote out in Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia they will win the election. Remember Trump win those three states by an aggregate 70k votes. Vote in those three states was light. Democrats should pour resources into those areas. I am a registered republican who will contribute as best I can toget the democratic vote out.
4
This is a wake up call even if it’s too early to trust the analysis. Democrats can’t afford to be complacent or divided once a candidate has been selected. We know the margins are slim and every vote in every state counts because there is more at stake than the presidency. If you’re feeling depressed, snap out of it. Carpe diem!
2
I remember back in the 1980s, the U.S. insisted that South Africa must implement"majority rule", since without majority rule there is no true democracy.
South Africa finally got majority rule in 1994.
And yet now it is 2019 and we still don't have "majority rule" in the U.S.
3
People should have learned their lesson about pundits and polls from the 2016 election. Here we are 15 or so months before the election and people are using polls to try and make predictions, this is lunacy.
1
As a technical sales engineer for wind energy industry based in California, I've traveled frequently from West Texas up to the Dakotas visiting with people who work on wind farms for almost 20 years. I would never call anyone I've met over the years in the Midwest poorly educated or ignorant where they live and work. They are technically competent with machinery, hardworking farming communities living with simple folksy wisdom handed down from generations of European immigrant settlers.
If you thought people there working on wind farms generating renewable energy in the rural Midwest would have progressive outlooks, you'd be mistaken. Wind turbines are just another mechanical farm equipment to them, nothing more. In politics, even before the advent of Trump, Obama and Clinton were despised and liberal is a four letter word to them.
On my recent visits I see more bleary bleakness in younger people who seem to connect with Trump and his message of white nationalism as a common cause for the racial self defense and preservation of their culture.
The rural America is a vast sea of red, and it's forever lost for the Democrats unless something changes.
6
It is so clear that the Dems have to support a platform & nominate someone who is moderate & appeals to the middle country. Dems can win every single vote in many of the coast states & the amount of electoral college votes is still the same.
It is very sad & frustrating to watch many Democrats seem to not recognize this simple fact that the only way we regain the white house & save this country is by a more "moderate liberal" platform that appeals to the middle!
35
@Jimi Funny thing is, we had that the last time around. Centrist candidate, got millions more votes - but the electoral college made it irrelevant. And it gets worse when you realize the way House districts are drawn and the way the Senate gives way to much power to states all out of proportion to their populations.
We need something better. We're more likely to get a permanent Republican minority running the country.
1
Sounds like Amy Klobuchar
It's going to be all about turnout in the battleground states. The Democrats need to put their money , not into TV ads that just annoy viewers, but into field offices.
Many low income adults have moved since the last time they voted. An army of field organizers needs to go door-to-door and register every eligible voter in the ghettoes, barrios and college towns. This work needs to start early in 2020.
There are no shortcuts to victory.
53
@Hugh Tague This ought to be a NYT Pick because it is absolutely correct. The last election was about turnout; this election is likely to be about turnout as well. Not in CA or NY where Trump will lose in a landslide, but in the "battleground" states. Let's hope that Tom Steyer and Howard Schultz and Michael Bloomberg put their money into voter drives.
4
@WZ. Agree it should be a NYT Pick. It’s an important point.
Don’t be so sure about the popular vote. I’m hearing a lot of people say they are surprisingly happy with how things are going under Trump. And, they are getting much more comfortable saying it.
25
This analysis clearly shows why we need urgent reform of the electoral college before the next election in November 2020. Getting rid of the electoral college is frankly a pipe dream, as it's in our Constitution, but we CAN change the "winner take all" way in which electoral college votes are allocated, which skews election results in favor of overrepresented red states and Republican candidates. Requiring states to allocate their electoral college votes in proportion to their statewide vote tallies would go a long way towards enfranchising voters in "winner take all" states whose votes routinely get ignored.
Battleground states love the current system because it gives them disproportionately more representation and power to swing elections. If you want to see this change, support the many reform efforts, such as equalcitizens.us or nationalpopularvote.com
All of our votes should count equally regardless of which state we vote in.
64
@Bob Loblaw
Yes! And the beauty is we wouldn't have to change the EC. It doesn't say how states should allocate their votes. States can decide to do it on their own (no Constitutional Amendment or Congressional involvment). I think 2 states already do it this way.
7
@Bob Loblaw
I'm with you, but I don't think this works in practice. I believe states decide how electors are chosen, and if a state is run by one party why would they cede power to the other party? Politics are dictated by game theory, not what's equitable.
2
Nice. But not gonna happen. The Republicans have been building this one-part dream for decades, quite ruthlessly I might add.
4
I keep hearing about the strong economy and yet every kid I know graduating from college and well into their 20s in holding much less interesting work than I got when I graduated 40 years ago, with few prospects for advancement. Gig jobs and "entrepreneurial" work doesn't do much for their futures.
Young people like this did a miserable job of voting in 2016, as if they had given up already. They had better get out and vote if they want the kind of society that values their intelligence and finds better ways to put them to work for the future than driving a car around all day or pouring coffee or operating cash registers.
129
There are plenty of good, interesting jobs available. Just move to China.
1
@Charlotte K
Those were Obama’s part-time bartender and barista jobs.
Much, Much too early to gauge the American feelings on President Trump. It is only mid-July and we have not even had the primaries which start in over 7 months. The Democratic National Convention is in one year and the Republican Convention follows in August. Granted that the Republican party is the party of Trump. But the Democrats have yet to coalesce around firm positions on controversial topics such as health care, who will pay for an increasingly expensive education for the younger generation. I have yet to hear any Democrat espouse totally open borders for immigration. And now, thanks to the president opting out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, we have increasingly hostile actions in the Straits of Hormuz. The silence of our former Atlantic partners has been deafening. Meanwhile, we must get used to media coverage of children in cages along the border, something I thought I would never see in my seventy-plus years.
42
@DOUGLAS LLOYD MD MPH
Agreed - without an actual name to run against the polls and surveys only give a very broad guesstimate. And another factor is that the economy is showing signs of slowing down from some leading indicators. If it actually does get worse, that will be a major hit for Trump.
If I have to choose between the two, between winning back the Presidency vs. winning back the Senate, I'd choose the Senate. Without Senate support, Trump's power will be diminished, although not necessarily taken out completely. We can at least ensure capable judges are elected and that includes the Supreme Court judges. And given this additional data, let's just not forget about the Senate, please!
177
@Concerned I disagree, the damage a rogue commander in chief can do is immeasurable. So far we've dodged multiple bullets.
8
@Concerned
Agree--if Democrats hold the House and take the Senate, Individual-1 can be impeached. As can the corrupt William Barr.
2
Really informative analysis by Nate Cohn. Please keep them coming.
Today the BLS released the latest employment numbers and they look very good, with a 0.3% drop in unemployment over a year ago. True, voters don’t read these, but they feel them. It’s going to be very hard to counter the positive effects of these numbers.
It sounds as if voters will *not* be looking for a radical economic change in 2020, but assurance that the economy will continue on its positive path. They might view a single-payer healthcare plan as a bit risky. But they might view as positive Liz Warren’s plan to address economic *inequity* in the nation, with a spin that it will *improve* the economy even more.
Voters will be looking for someone who can steer the national ship with a steady hand. Trump can’t do that, so maybe Dems can make that an issue.
Bottom line is, however, it’s hard to beat an incumbent president with a good economy. But in *this* election, it depends on how squirrelly the president is. Trump could lead to squirrelly polling data.
I don’t think that there’s a parameter for squirrelliness in the measurements, other than that included in trump’s approval numbers. If they stay the same, Dems will have more of a problem, as Nate’s penetrating analysis warns us here.
12
Nate, come on man ... I was planning on a great weekend! Great journalism.
14
I found it strange that the author applied a trend in another state an applied it to Wisconsin to offset actual polls there. It still looks like Trump is probably not going to post even a narrow win in Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin. Without those, Florida and Arizona can still give him narrow wins and he still falls below 270 in the EC. As far as Texas falling for the Dems, wait another 8 years.
11
I think Trump's reason for wanting to put the citizenship question on the 2020 census goes back to what he said after he lost the popular vote to Clinton in the 2016 election. He insisted that many (3 million or more) illegal votes had led to that. I think he'd like to have some ammunition to back up his claim when he loses the popular vote again in 2020, and even though he's given up on trying to have the question included in the census questionnaire, he's said he will get the information from 'already available sources' in the government. He may win the presidency again, but I don't think there's any way that he wins the popular vote.
14
And the Dem candidates play Top This , the favorite game of leading "progressives" everywhere.
8
Just about every sentence in this article is speculative. When it comes to statistics, which I had to take long ago, the more statistical tests you’re doing, altogether at the same time, the less and less accurate can the overall conclusions be considered accurate.
So, I would caution readers that there is a great deal of speculation here and to take Nate’s broad conclusions with a grain of salt. Or maybe many grains of salt.
None of us knows who will win in November of 2020.
34
27 states have at least one Democrat Senator. And yet Hillary won only 20 states. The Democrats need to appeal to states that are up for grabs. But they don't like to compromise. Just read the comments here. And while they could win the electoral vote, they prefer to complain that it undermines their chances of winning. The Democratic view is my way or the highway.
15
@michjas Democrats have been compromising on every major proposed piece of legislation since 1994, to a fault.
1
Our electoral system is, and has been, pretty absurd when you think about it. I live in California. Really no point in voting in a Presidential election because the Democrats are going to win anyway. Same thing if you live in Idaho. The Republicans will win there every time. The EC needs to be scrapped. It's obsolete. Every American vote should be counted equally.
87
The Electoral college has been misunderstood and misused. it should be fixed not scrapped How about awarding an elector based on who wins that congressional district instead of winner takes all in these states. that would force more competition.
9
@Ron
Agree, and this would probably increase voter turnout as well.
3
I agree. I am 44 years old, have lived in N.C., MA & CA. I have voted in every presidential election, but sadly my vote has never “counted” due to the electoral college.
4
Sanders won the 2016 primary contests in Michigan and Wisconsin. Either he or Warren, probably more her, would be the best candidate for Midwestern voters, who are looking for an economic populist.
34
Both Warren and Sanders are from states with GOP governors. Recapturing the senate is as important as the presidency. If either were to win the Senate would stay GOP as their replacement would be a Republican. Not worth it when we have lots of good candidates that can win and help win the Senate
7
@BK
What about Biden? I think he has the best chance in the swing states including those that used to be blue but went for Trump in 2016. Which candidate we Democrats in the blue state prefer is of no importance now. Beating Trump is all that matters. Period.
12
@BK
Yes voters are looking for an economic populist- another FDR. Sanders fills the bill.
2
It is rare that an incumbent with a strong economy loses reelection. This will be a tough race for Dems, and there will be little room for error.
82
@Mary M
I despise our President. However, I am heavily invested in the stock market and am doing very well. My silver lining.
2
@Mary M It will be crashed before the election, its barely hanging on now. As the tariffs bite it goes down.
2
@Mary M A strong economy is a false narrative in this election because of Dumps phony and misleading mistakes. He dishonesty and mismanagement of this country will be his biggest weakness.
I’m beginning to think that the only way to ensure the necessity of a trump defeat is for a LOT of Dems in solidly blue states to actually move to PA, MI, FL, NC, WI, OH, and maybe even TX and vote in the 2020. Retirees, students (take a semester off) would be obvious candidates.
159
@Chris a LOT of people have moved to these states but they a not necessarily making them more "Blue". North Carolina's recent tango with right-wing extremists was lead by transplants from the North.
2
@Chris
That, or actually start addressing the issues that afflict these states. These states have been reliably blue for some time now but now are moving to the Republican camp. Dems need to put in an earnest effort in appealing to the white working class and the suburban middle class in these states. Democratic policies like improving healthcare/education, going after exploitative corporations and things along those lines can easily appeal to people in these states, but the Dems have an identity politics problem that seems to be pushing a lot of white voters away.
10
@Chris it would be a whole lot easier to just ease-up on the talk or intention of:
1) asylum for all foreigners who wish to live here and essentially no immigration enforcement,
2) free universal health coverage for illegal immigrants when there's not a current funded public option (not counting ACA) for American citizens, and
3) eradication of private insurance when we don't even have a system in-place like that in Canada, France and Germany where private insurance still plays an integral part in national coverage.
The front runner Democratic candidates with a chance at nomination, with maybe Klobuchar as the long-shot exception, will lose this election all on their own no matter where people live because the majority of American voters (and even more electorates) will not be with them.
9
I keep getting the sinking feeling that Trump could lose the popular vote by millions, and still win the EC. Not a far fetched proposition at all.
87
That's what happened in 2016. He lost by more than 2.86 *million* votes.
3
@alank
Not far fetched at all, since it already happened in 2016. He won the election by loosing the popular vote by millions. 3 millions to be exact.
3
@alank
"Trump could lose the popular vote by millions, and still win the EC."
That's exactly what happened in 2016.
America is not a democracy!
4
So what's so hard about finding a candidate for the Democratic party that can win those swing states?
If they can't do that, they won't win.
Do Democratic primary voters want to win the presidential election, or do they "want to make a statement" and choose a fringe candidate?
The choice is up to them.
188
@Louis
Fully agree. Choosing a Democratic candidate based on making a statement that is as far left as Trump has gone right has its appeal. But I also think that it will give the election to Trump. I am frustrated because I don't want either extreme, but that choice is increasingly not on the table given the way the political class is playing the game.
40
@Louis You are right. Trump at the moment is running against nobody. His numbers will go up if the somebody he eventually runs against is viewed as occupying the far left. Sorry, woke people.
21
@Louis
Why should the Democrats compromise? If people can’t see the danger of the trump now then it doesn’t matter. I will vote for the progressive candidate in the primary. If they aren’t the party candidate in the election, I will vote for whoever is the democratic candidate on Election Day. I will not vote third party and discourage anyone who cares about the United States from voting third party. The stakes are too high.
28
The election will, of course, be primarily a referendum on Trump. How could it not be? Against Biden, Trump will not win Pa. Also, it will be easier for Biden to pick up some rural white votes - particularly among women - than for Trump to pick up any urban area votes. There could indeed be a higher turnout in the areas that favor Trump, but even a slight downward tick in his percentage of that vote dooms him.
27
@Steven How about a ticket with Biden and Warren. I'm thinking that would be a winner. I'm not ready to jump off the earth if Trump wins again. Another option would be to have a revolution. Hong Kong is a good example for us.
20
It will be a referendum on Trump IF the Democratic candidate is a moderate on at least some issues and has a bit of charisma. If the economy stays strong few will upset the apple cart by voting for far left wealth redistribution, open borders, etc. People will hold their noses and vote for Trump if they like the status quo and feel threatened by the Democrat. Any viable opponent needs to have a non-threatening upbeat platform and great presence. Needs to look competent, experienced and sensible with a good TV presence, sense of humor, and seem like someone you would enjoy meeting. If we can find that candidate we could win because a lot of Republicans are repulsed by Trump’s behavior, mistrust his foreign and trade policies, and are appalled at the soaring deficit.
8
@Ellen F. Dobson: Well, if Dems win even more of the popular vote this time but still lose in the Electoral College, there *will* be a revolution.
What if the Dem candidate won the popular vote by ten million votes and lost in the Electoral College? It could wake up the population (finally).
1
The one weakness of this analysis is that it seems to hold a the Democratic opponent constant as though he is running against Hillary Clinton again which he definitely will not do. At this point the analysis can't be done any other way since the Democrats have no clear favorite to be nominated. Once a Democratic opponent is nominated then this type of analysis will be more helpful.
76
Thus far there doesn't seem to be anyone who can rally Dems or get some moderates/independents. Without that it's another 4 years of Trump.
10
@northeastsoccermum I think you are ignoring the simple fact that Dems and independents are already strongly "rallied" by Trump himself. I predict historic turnout, which works against Republicans.
2
I think the left has realized they had tempted The Fates to much last election by claiming that there was not way Trump could win with Hillary a candidate. So they're trying to use reverse psychology on them.
1
WE all must help our entrenched brothers and sisters in the swing and red states get out and vote for sanity and help them get to the polls. If we do that we will win. If we don't fight for the right to vote and get to the poles we lose. I have no doubt that even the voting machines are rigged in favor of Trump. SO every vote is needed in every state and supporting that should be our only mission from now till election day.
60
Rigged voting machines. Why would you accuse Democrats nationwide of continuing to do what they did in Illinois for decades?
3
15 months is an eternity in politics. This election will be decided during the weeks of October 2020 and not officially until Nov 3. It will be close (which is in itself a sad state of affairs). But most likely no one will be able to predict the outcome with any reasonable degree of certainty.
I know it's "fun" to play with the numbers but sorry ... I'm not buying into any of this.
137
@Michael I could not agree more 15 months is indeed an eternity in politics. Nobody is an expert on the future, not even the pundits. Just look at 2016 -- Hillary Clinton looked like a safe bet on Labor Day.
4
Yes Nate you are correct. How do the democrats stop this?
Simple, three main ways.
1-Do not nominate another identity obsessed, social engineering candidate like Hillary.
2--Do not nominate another identity obsessed, social engineering candidate like Hillary.
3-Do not nominate another identity obsessed, social engineering candidate like Hillary.
Nominate a moderate progressive like Biden (or anybody else that steps up to the plate, male, female, black, white, young, old) that will give moderate progressive answers to issues in purple states that Trump demagogued.
It's that simple. It's not rocket science.
139
@Paul
Thanks, Paul. I was horrified when Hillary announced she was running again for 2016. With decades of attacks from the far right gasbags, I worried about the election.
When Trump became the GOP nominee, I had a sinking feeling while watching their convention as speakers lied on behalf of Trump. And then, there was what I called, the dynasty effect; voters were tired of candidates named Bush or Clinton.
Which is why I agree with you. I want a moderate left-of-center candidate who, if elected to POTUS, will have an open mind to progressive ideas while leading the nation with an even-handed touch, both here and abroad.
Let the healing begin.
7
@Paul
Agreed. Sadly and amazingly, the Democrats are doing their best to prevent this from happening.
2
@David Ohman-Thank you and Andrew N for your replies.
It doesn't matter how great you think somebody is, if they can't get elected.
Great pols. and leaders knew this in the past with the gold standard being Lincoln.
He knew the radical republicans were right ie blacks should be freed, and totally equal but knew the country was not ready. He concentrated on winning the Civil War then only freeing the slaves because without the former he could not get the latter. He did not go for total equality. If he did, we would most likely be four or five different countries with slavery not being eliminated till the 20 century and Lincoln would have been viewed as a has been instead of the gold standard leader that he was.
Similar today, the country is not ready for the squad, no matter what you think of them. They want a moderate progressive like Biden or stand in to beat Trump and listen to progressive moderate ideas to solve the countries' problems for all Americans.
7
My vote has NEVER counted in a presidential election.
Why am I and the rest of voters in well-populated blue states disenfranchised? Or the blue voters in red states? Or the red voters in blue states?
The only winners are those voters in less populated states with unequally good representation in the Electoral College.
Contrary to DJT’s hope to go back in time, we are definitely not living in the world of our Founders and the writers of the Constitution.
It’s time to change the system so everyone’s vote is equally counted. The Electoral College has been obsolete for decades.
387
I absolutely disagree, if the electoral college was eliminated: California, Texas, Florida and New York voters would dominate every election. Our Founders created a Republic not a Direct Democracy.
7
@It’s About Time The constant argument for the College is that residents of smaller states are ignored because their states don't carry enough electoral votes to matter.
Eliminating the College would make every vote count as one. A Republican in California would count, and a Democrat in Mississippi would count. A candidate would see value in campaigning in those now-neglected unwinnable states. Where a Republican can't now swing enough votes to carry California, a good showing might raise his/her vote count by 20,000 or 30,000 votes -- votes that would count.
8
Yes, and it's high time for it to go.
2
It always comes back to the same thing: The voters should elect the President of the United States, not the Electoral College.
342
Then people would be governed by the voters in New York and California --a dismal prospect. Putin's Russia would be more pleasant than that.
3
So why didn’t Democrats change the Constitution?
@dutchiris
Democrats were fine with the idea until it worked against them. There's no principled position here.
And return the '60 election to Nixon. Were it not for Sam Giancana and the philosophy that dead people still get to vote, llinois' electoral votes would have been Nixon's. Who knows, the devious old guy might have been a lot less paranoid. and our history immeasurably better.
2
Hidden in the very last paragraph -- "... his approval ratings suggest he could lose. Perhaps even decisively."
His approval ratings are underwater in the states that he needs to win, but somehow a prognostication about high turnout among the minority of voters that support him is the answer to that data.
26
Trump's advantage in the Electoral College, a body of electors established by the United States Constitution, will work against whoever has an advantage in Super Delegates, a body of Democratic political elites and donors, and hence the victor in the Democratic primaries and nominee.
5
Why do you think that, Edwin? Given the lessons and consequences of 2016, this time wouldn’t the super delegates rally behind the candidate they think is most fit to beat Trump?
1
The democrats have not selected their nominee. The remaining debates will sharpen differences, find similarities, and give the eventual nominee plenty of practice.
Right now Trump is running against 'the squad'.
Can you see Trump stalking Elizabeth Warren the way he did Hilary? She spins around, pointing at him, and shouts: "What exactly do you think you're doing?" Then pointing at his podium; "Back to your place." Saturday Night Live !
Seriously, the dems need:
(1) A real solution for the border which includes stopping people, uniting families, and looking at short / long range solutions to problems in their countries. Also continually point out Trump's blatant lying and demonization. Ask those 'Christians' how they feel about it.
(2) Infrastructure development which will require taxes and create new environmentally positive industry / jobs over decades. Any new industry needs support; the word 'subsidy' has a negative connotation, especially with the blather about 'socialism'. Remind America how the oil industry has been subsidized for over a century in many ways, including war.
Once a nominee is decided the party will unite and craft a specific message for these and other problems. And an approach to keep the bully muttering, on the defensive.
A good episode on Sat Night Live
Yes, the electoral college is a potential problem.
19
@CD When did that SNL episode air?I'd love to watch it. Somehow we missed it.
1
@CD I certainly hope some Democratic candidates read your spot-on advice!
And what would be the penalty, exactly? Prison?
"Make voting mandatory ..."
5
In Australia it’s a hefty fine. You can vote anywhere, including hospitals or by mail. But then you miss the BBQ at the local school.
2
"Rewarding Polarizing Campaign"
that's because a "polarizing campaign" has never before been conducted in U.S. history until Trump came along ...
1
It's clear from this that the electoral college has long outlived its utility. We need to get rid of this vestige of our anti-minority, repressive past to allow the true will of the people (e.g. NOT the toddler-in-chief) to prevail.
50
@David
Nonsense, the Founders were very clear about the dangers of a direct democracy that’s why the House of Representatives was established, the direct election of the Senate has been a disaster for the Republic. Presidential elections were established under Federalism. I know this is all confusing to a Democrat who believes rule of law is merely a suggestion.
3