Basically even if Ford cared anything at all about building and selling EVs they don't have the capability. They don't have the engineers or materials technology for a viable EV to market. They have to put something in the game, otherwise they just look as backwards as they really are. So Ford is depending on VW to keep them from looking like a bunch of losers while keeping as few EVs on the dealers' lots as possible. Great plan, until VW eats their lunch.
6
As a Tesla owner addicted to autopilot, I remain very skeptical about the ability to achieve a fully autonomous vehicle. But the technological improvements that can be realized by pursuing this goal are well worth the effort. Tesla's autopilot has only gotten better and better in the 3.5 years since it was rolled out. And with Tesla's over the air software updates I've been able to use this progress.
8
@David agreed. My Tesla is amazing and autopilot is great but will it avoid a freshly killed skunk in the road? Nope. I had to swerve around the skunk so my tire would not run over it. Oh that smell!
4
A key reason many established auto companies are suddenly scrambling to produce electrics is the continuing fall in the price of batteries. Starting around 2023 they will become so inexpensive that electric cars will have about the same sticker price as fossil fuel ones.
Given that electrics have considerably lower operating costs, plus the fact that governments all around the world have programs in place to promote them, electric car sales are expected to skyrocket, and internal combustion car sales fall rapidly.
What has happened in the last year or so is that the big auto companies, which up until now have been only fooling around when it comes to electrics, have suddenly realized they are going to go out of business if they don't get into electrics in a very big way, and as fast as possible. As a consequence they are putting their programs in high gear. So for instance, in recent months VW has signed contracts to purchase 48 billion dollars worth of batteries.
5
Driverless cars would already be a reality with immense benefits to the aged the disabled and nearly everyone else except for a ridiculous trial system rigged for shyster lawyers and other regulators.
class action lawsuits and contingency scams need to be eliminated from the common law.
1
I feel uncomfortable about this agreement on antitrust grounds. If companies ostensibly are separate but don't in fact compete, how is that free market competition?
1
@Stephen Merritt it's anti-competitive only if it results in the market as a whole lacking competition, but that is not at all the case for either electric vehicles or self-driving, at least not for the foreseeable future. In fact, for electric vehicles, both VW and Ford are trying to catch up with Tesla and a whole host of Chinese manufacturers.
1
Driverless cars are still experimental, but the technology behind them has advanced a great deal. The luddites love to point out how Tesla had fatalities from testing driverless cars, how there have been other accidents, but that is true of all new technology. Back in the day, when the car was introduced, the same people pointed out that when accidents happened how the car was a menace, they had speed limits like 5mph and the like, all kinds of restrictions....early cars often could kill the driver, there is no doubt. In the 1950's 50,000 people died on the roads with mileage driven a fraction of what it is today, because the cars were crude, lacked even basic safety equipment, the death and injury rate was staggering..today, about 35,000 people die on the roads, and much of that is drunk driving and distracted driving, while driving miles has soared.
With the lack of mass transit in many places and gridlocked suburbs, driverless cars likely will be the only way to help stop commutes from becoming impossible. The truth is that human drivers are not exactly all that great a lot of the time, how many times is traffic gridlock caused by stupidity like rubber necking, a bit of rain, someone in the middle, center and left lane going like 40mph in a 65 zone? A lot of accidents are caused by human stupidity, DUI, Distracted driving, weaving through traffic, not signalling, you name it....and currently, one of the big problems driverless cars face is bad human driving.
6
Ah the wonderful tireless rational operator, the conscious and omniscient robot. Not close to possible, though.
The reason Ford and Chrysler are joining forces is because EV's are inevitable now no matter how much Trump, the GOP and the oil companies try to fight it, they are reaching critical mass, Tesla is on track to sell 400,000 cars this year and the entire industry is investing heavily in it (unlike the oil industry, who despite the Exxon Mobil ads touting their research, spend a lot more on ads promoting research than serious research), and EV cars despite what the Fox Nation idiots claim, will significant cut down carbon emissions, even in places like West Virginia still living in the 19th century and producing power from coal, and even if coal is producing the electricity, the CO2 output from smokestack is a fraction of what a gasoline or diesel puts out. Even the enthusiasts are happy, because EV's are not golf carts, I just saw a thing for an electric SUV that will have 3.0 second 0-60 times, which s supercar territory, and Bertone has an electric 1900 hp equivalent car that will wipe out anything else on the road, once upon a time auto enthusiasts saw EV's as being a nader mobile, utilitarian, slow and not fun.
4
Electrical motors are highly efficient and potentially awesomely powerful. But electricity is energy that cannot be easily stored until ready for use. Thus batteries become the big impediment.
As all students of statistics have heard, it is possible that a room full of monkeys at typewriters might produce Hamlet. That is what this promise of self driven cars and robots is based upon, a remote but unlikely possibility.
1
All car manufacturers clearly understand the threat of climate change and envision a better future with non-polluting electric vehicles and are working to bring it about.
Trump and his Republican cronies envision the past as the future, where everyone drives that same gas guzzling, pollution belching, internal combustion cars that we have been driving for more than a century.
5
"There's only going to be a few winners who create the platforms for the future." Given Trump's stubborn adherence to oil, gas and coal, I guess that leaves America out.
5
Somehow is is kind of difficult to believe in the Green Intent of companies that have cheated on emissions (VW) or have just axed small, fuel efficient cars (Ford).
9
@GvN Ford's SUV's are comparable in fuel efficiency to the cars the edge is even better than the Fusion actually.
This is an impossible dream. Once driverless cars are released on public roads the carnage will have them quickly banned. Not to mention that this is not the kind of thing mankind should be wasting time and money on. Think of the billions of people who still live in primitive villages; let's invent things that can improve their lives. How would they use driverless cars when they don't even have paved roads?
1
1.25M deaths worldwide from people driving their own cars. 25-50M injured annually. Each and every year this death and destruction repeats itself.
Autopilot is already safer likely by a factor of 10.
Time to follow the data, lose your fear, and stop this carnage.
14
Indeed, autonomous vehicles will—sadly—kill people. However, anything less than what we see now is an important improvement. And, the technology will only get better going forward. With no reservations, I look forward to a world with electrically powered self driving vehicles. It will take some time before they are optimal, but the wait will be worth it.
1
1,242 words written and not one mention of Tesla.... Interesting. Glad to see this partnership, it makes sense as does the investment of Ford in Rivian. Also great for Pittsburgh where you see so many driver less test cars in the street these days.
11
The authors should have asked the question: why are these companies engaged in this frantic and seemingly risky arrangements? I believe the answer can be summarized in one word -- Tesla.
14
Oh great! Since both of these companies have a history of producing faulty products and hiding their problems from regulators, why wouldn't we trust them to develop safe technology for self-driving cars?
8
Two giant companies are spending billions of dollars to develop a technology that, if successful will put thousands of people who drive for a living out of work.
Brave new world?
4
@ann
"Just as more and more jobs are being automated, we are being expected to absorb many millions of poorly educated people."
Exactly the same complaint was made a century ago and Italians, etc. were flooding in and the assembly line was really beginning to catch on.
Guess what? They all found jobs, their kids becoming just another ingredient in the great melting pot.
2
@Bill White
A century ago, most jobs did not require much education. Since then, the economy has drastically changed, with more and more entry-level jobs requiring a college degree, and many asking for specific higher education and experience.
A 2/17 Inter American Dialogue Report titled "Educational Challenges in Honduras and Consequences for Human Capital and Development” said the average Honduran, age 15 and above, has only a 4th grade education. Even those Hondurans who have attended school for more years do not do well on international tests for their grade levels. Guatemala and El Salvador have higher illiteracy rates than Honduras.
The 10/26/16 PEW Research Center article “Among foreign-born new moms from top sending locations, big differences in demographic characteristics” reports on immigrant mothers who gave birth in the U.S. 66% of Honduran new mothers were unmarried, and their annual medium income was $24,000.
How would Central American migrants be able to support themselves and their children? Would they be heavily dependent on government subsidies for the rest of their lives? Being poorly educated themselves, and speaking little English, how would they raise educated children without continual expensive support systems?
@ann, You're probably right, but it begs the question: what does it have to do with my comment?
We already have self-driving immigrants.
Ford-VW: Where making it up and hiding stuff from regulators is Job 1.
13
What happens if consumers simply can not adapt to driverless cars? What if the necessary psychological transition to the ceding of control over one's life to a machine travelling at 60 mph is too difficult an adjustment for the brain to make? After all of this rejiggering and amalgamation of the automobile, technology and other transport industries -- not to mention the transition to electric vehicles -- what happens if humans simply can not accept the outcome?
Or perhaps more important, if this does work out, what will become of a human race that has given yet another dimension of its independence, freedom, and choice-making capacity to a set of machines?
3
Do you insist on manually controlling elevators? We adjusted quite nicely to the elevator being on autopilot. Cars are just the next step.
3
What is the possible use case for a self driving car?
They still have to park somewhere!
This is a collosal waste of time and resources by people who are in a race with themselves.
Infrastructure please.
2
Why on earth does this story not address the fact that both Ford and Volkswagen happily and eagerly cheated and lied at the expense of consumers? And now these two scandal-plagued corporations are teaming up and consumers are supposed to trust them?
8
@MB If you are talking about the firestone tire recall that was firestones fault, the tires were faulty, Firestone refused to recall so Ford had to do a voluntary recall for Firestone causing Firestone to end their 100 year history with ford
Aren't self driving cars already here? There was the story of the guy in the UK who was arrested because he was letting his car drive itself while he enjoyed the ride, with his feet up, from the passenger seat.
1
All the commenters talk about how great Tesla is, but there have been two fatalities because it couldn’t see a semi.
2
@Rich Murphy
Since then, how many other fatalities have occurred between human-driven cars and semis?
In just the past few months, Tesla and other companies have improved recognition and avoidance using that exact situation as a test case. AI learning means daily incremental improvement for all non-standard situations encountered.
In the last 50 years, how much has each human gotten better at avoiding accidents? Auto crash death statistics suggest not much.
9
It’s always amazing when big institutions under take stupid endeavors, but the self driving cars craze is truly mindless. It’s like cold fusion or inventing a perpetual motion engine, contrary to facts offered in abundance by reality. It is very possible to create clever experimental cyber systems to explore the ability to use computers to enhance people’s ability to do things. From this will come amazing products. But the driverless self driving car is a hammer wielding itself concept, curious like an Escher graphic but not a real possibility.
4
It is insane. EV cars, yes. Let's save the planet, but driverless cars is simply the auto industry trying to hold onto a dying and obsolete product. We don't need more cars. We do need updated infrastructure for trians, subways, buses, etc.
9
The luddites are coming out of the woodwork! Look at them doubting whether computers can handle driving a car, while those same computers facilitate a global communication and banking network and continue to expand processing power exponentially under Moore's Law. Meanwhile, an average of 100 people a day in America die under their own control driving their car.
And how is is that Tesla doesn't even get mentioned? But whatever, my expectations of this newspaper continue to drop to the point that it often feels like I'm reading reading USA Today.
13
@P.S. Computers are doing a really good job of handling communications and banking. Social media doesn't seem to be able to keep trolls in check, or prevent cyber-bullying or kiddie porn. Data breaches in financial institutions and online retailers are the norm, and cities are regularly being blackmailed with attacks on their records and infrastructure.
Even cars that are not self-driving can be hacked. Imagine the possibilities when the driver has no control at all.
Am I a Luddite? Maybe; but I still adhere to the idea that just because something can be done, it doesn't follow that it should be done.
Now let's talk about voting machines.
4
@michaeltide All those things you mention are flaws in humans not in the machines, and anyway nobody is suggesting cars where a driver won't be able to take control of the vehicle. As to your other point, we don't have voting machines because society's owners don't actually want people to be able to vote en masse. That's why we can do all our banking online, and our taxes, and our defense, but we can't vote there. If commerce can happen mostly safely and securely online, then we can vote there too. That we can't now is more about power than technology.
3
@P.S., I don't think that flaws in humans will be made obsolete by technology. They may, in fact, be exacerbated thereby.
1
I'm amused at how little faith some of you have that computers will continue making the amazing progress that they've been steadily making since the 1940s when they first emerged.
Back then, it was inconceivable that a computer could do much more than calculate a few very-well-defined tables for aiming guns. Nowadays, the computer that slips into your pocket has nearly-instant access to all the world's knowledge and media and gives you access to billions of other people. Computers forecast the weather ten days out with pretty amazing accuracy. And they routinely, repeatably, and with utter safety land the airplanes that we fly in by the hundreds.
You're right: Computers still can't really navigate the complex maze of streets that humans (mostly) manage safely. But that's this year. Give the systems engineers five more years to develop hyper-accurate maps and vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications systems. Give the hardware designers five more years to develop much faster, more accurate radars and machine vision systems. And give the software engineers five more years to put it all together with good human factors for the occupants, pedestrians, and so on.
By then, computers will be routinely driving cars with more precision, reliability, and safety than most of us can achieve. And just like the amazing supercomputers in our pocket, we'll probably be taking it all for granted.
9
Computers are not cyber life forms, they are sophisticated tools that process mathematically designed operations. They are tools. It will take far different kinds of human inventions to achieve man made things that perform as living things do.
3
@Atlant Schmidt
Having been involved with Data Science for large multinationals, I agree with your comment. Might I add to your list of future developments, some not to difficult signals along the roadway that these cars’ navigation systems can access would readily reduce errors in them in more accurately following the roadway and exits.
Computers, and hundreds of algorithms like those me and my teams designed, were tools with folks in the loop . That will change as AI will come.
2
@Casual Observer
Living things are doing a bad job of driving cars. Living things are killing each other with their cars every day at a terrible rate.
When computers do a better job than living things to keep us alive on the road, then we will demand to have that technology for ourselves and our families.
2
Driverless trains, ok. Single track, minimal risk of incursion from any number of possibilites (in the context of a fully enclosed subway line), ok I can live with that.
Driverless cars based on programming written by humans, Darwin will take care of those who dare ride in that video game.
4
Ii have to think part of the slump in new car sales has to be due to ambiguity of when fully autonomous vehicles will be widely available as well as the flurry of activity and advances in EV offerings.
Fully autonomous cars may be available in a year or two. I won't buy anything new today. Similarly, so many major car cos. have announced full range of new EV models in a year or two. These will be better in many ways and better value than current offerings. Why buy today? I bought a '15 Leaf in '18 for that reason.
Finally would I buy an internal combustion engine (ICE) car today? No.
4
All the throw around $millions tells me one thing, but the big auto boys will not agree, and it is too much, too much, too much auto capacity. And the numbers are going down all the time because people are beginning to draw back on owning cars, as well as replacing them. There has to be mergers coming up, big time, or auto mfg will have to accept less profits. You think to sustain these excess profits (changes all the time with how you add up he numbers) that customers are going to pay $40-$70K to drive to work and take a couple of vacations a year. Good luck.
Our imaginations are perhaps our most human characteristic. We can imagine realities which don’t exist, that we could not make because our imaginations can omit factors that cannot be omitted in nature. Perpetual motion engines which once started never stop and can run whole great systems with no more physical input we can imagine but we cannot make. We can imagine fusing hydrogen at low temperatures and unlock a vast source of energy, but nature will not cooperate. Self driving cars controlled by automated systems are like that, imaginable but not possible to make real.
1
@Casual Observer
True as is evident of autonomously landing a vehicle on another planet without a pilot. The Apollo program even with its guidance computers relied on the astronaut/commander to fly the lunar lander for the last thousand feet.
Oh wait, there are those landings on Mars(Curiosity and recently Insight), using fully autonomous systems; Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT). Hmmm imagine what fifty years of computer enhancements and software systems can do for you.
It’s not anything like perpetual motion, nor cold fusion...these are not even theoretically possible. Self driving transportation systems are.
And no I’m not a Rocket Scientist ... but I am a Data Scientist.
1
@TJC
Sorry, your example is not relevant. You need to understand why Russel’s and Whitehead’s attempt to unify logic with mathematic in their Principia Mathematica failed and why Goedel proved that one cannot expect certainty when working with logical mathematical systems.
In addition, there is magical thinking in the notion that self learning algorithms designed for finite sets of circumstances will eventually escape those limits to determine signal from noise all by themselves.
@Casual Observer
Sorry, your explanation is lacking in information too.
A critical need to promote the planet-saving electric-car industry is for the U.S. and other governments to promote global standards to overcome range limits that require long charging times at limited numbers of fuel stations, overcoming the range "anxiety" of hesitant consumers.
Governments, involved industries, and the International Organization for Standardization should hammer out interchangeable and common battery sizes and charging interfaces that all manufacturers could sell. Thus, within 5 or fewer minutes nearly-depleted batteries could be popped out and exchanged with fully-charged ones at fuel stations everywhere.
Examples of such global standards include the 35-mm camera-film cartridges developed by the E. Leitz GmbH, which eventually all film manufacturers could sell and be used in cameras from all manufacturers. One was not restricted to buying film specific for one's brand of camera.
Other examples include the propane tanks from backyard barbecue grills. One quickly exchanges an empty for a full one without waiting for a proprietary tank to be refilled by compatible equipment. Similarly, AA, AAA, C, D, and other battery sizes available globally power electronic devices regardless of brand of battery or device. Also, portable data memory sticks and chips made by multiple manufacturers work in the USB ports of most all brands of computers, smartphones, and other devices.
Consumers will flock to e-vehicles when this happens.
11
@bruce. I very rarely have to charge my Tesla, an old model with about 250 miles range, anywhere other than at home overnight. Think smartphone. This year to date I have taken one road that required me to charge along the way. New model Ev's have better range. The range issue is simply not important to me.
4
@David, when charging stations are as plentiful and efficient as gas stations, the range issue won't matter to anybody. EVs are an idea whose time has come. Now the infrastructure for them needs to be developed. The sooner the better.
3
@michaeltide. Agree. Tesla already has a huge lead in charging stations, and has greatly reduced the charge time.
3
The profit-based concept of having cars driven by glitch-prone and hackable computers is dangerous to society. All computers will fail at some point, and computers can't be programmed to react the way humans do to the nuanced behavior of other vehicles, cyclists, or pedestrians, in order to avoid accidents. Nor can computers be programmed to avoid the road hazards that litter our roads, which it is necessary to constantly dodge in order to avoid vehicle damage. Under real-world weather and road conditions, computers will not be able to safely navigate vehicles approaching each other only a few feet apart at high combined speeds. Our money (corporate "investments") can be spent much more productively to advance vehicle safety.
3
@RC
The original concept of having cars driven by glitch-prone and hackable humans (drugs, distractions, mental impairment) is dangerous to society (Globally, almost 3,300 killed per day. Tens of millions injured each year).
Are you suggesting that this daily carnage on our roads will increase when cars are under AI control? We are in AI infancy, and already data suggests that we would have fewer crashes, deaths and injuries with systems in trial right now. Then project the inevitable improvements in 1, 3, 5 plus years.
Your argument is a bet against technology and market-driven progress. In light of history, that would be a poor bet.
10
Electrical, hydrogen fuel cell, and gas turbine systems should replace the internal combustion engine for highway and road driving. They are are far more efficient in their own ways even though none are as versatile and broadly useful as the internal combustion engine, yet. Electrical cars cannot operate efficiently over great distances. The weight of the batteries forces them to be far less able to carry heavy loads nor to support vehicles that must have heavy bodies. The hydrogen fuel cells are experimental. Gas turbine engines are already fully developed and could operate with the advantages of the internal combustion engine while addressing a big part of the challenges that the internal combustion engine have produced.
Auto sales are slumping around the world. That statement right there tells us that the market is shifting. People don't want the old thing. They want the new thing and the new thing is electric and that's a good thing.
Electrification of transportation paves the way to a more fully electric society powered by renewable energy, which is electric. Myself, I don't want to buy another gas powered car. I have solar on my house and would love to use my surplus generation to charge a small car. I'm waiting for a little, low cost, electric toaster that I can put-put around town in. I already have an ebike which I love to ride, but in inclement weather, long distances, or heavy, dangerous traffic, I need a car. They will be here in a few years.
While the US, under Trump, is fighting the switch to green energy, the rest of the world is not. Ford and VW are global operations and they have to service the global market. They are spending money now that will provide the products they will need in 10 years. I only wish our government could be so wise.
13
@Bruce Rozenblit Bruce, you can get a pre-owned Nissan Leaf for under $10K to meet your needs, provided you can live with an 80 mile range. But a much smarter investment is a pre-owned Tesla Model S. Once you drive a Tesla, you'll never go back.
2
After VW’s scandal over manipulating car emissions, why would any company collaborate with them and why would any consumer buy a VW-associated car? The company simply can’t be trusted.
4
I’ve been driving a Toyota Yaris Hybrid for five years with great success and enjoyment. The dual electric motor and gasoline engine function perfectly with excellent mileage equal to over 45 miles per gallon.
I will switch to an all electric Toyota when they offer one in the future.
There is no more reliable car as Toyota and their Lexus products!
1
Tesla’s are incredibly reliable.
In Général EV’s have 1/10 the maintenance costs of internal combustion engine vehicles. And EV’s last a lot longer.
Toyota is fighting the change to electric tooth and nail. Look at the latest comments from their CEO. I wouldn’t hold my breath.
2
@G
> In Général EV’s have 1/10 the
> maintenance costs of internal
> combustion engine vehicles.
> And EV’s last a lot longer.
EV's are great but there's really very little evidence to support your claim. (Full disclosure: I'm a Chevy Volt driver with 70,000 miles "on the clock".)
Yes, pure EVs don't have an exhaust system and they don't need oil changes. And their friction brakes will last a lot longer because EVs use regenerative braking, not friction, to do most of the slowing of the cars.
But other than that, there's really very little difference between an EV and a conventional car. They still need tires (and low-rolling resistance tires actually wear out much faster). They'll still need struts and tie-rod ends and wiper blades and window winder motors and the 90% of the rest of car that's identical with an ICE model. They'll still need collision repair and here in the Northeast, eventual rust repair.
And yes, someday, they may need a replacement battery or at least bad cells replaced in their batteries.
Buy an EV for all the reasons they really are better but don't buy one because it will need "1/10 the maintenance" of a conventional car. If you believe that, you're sure to be disappointed.
4
@G.......yes Tesla has won my heart also but their production problems, delivery delays, and imperfections on finish work when delivered make them lose first place for reliability.
To deliberately deliver many cars to buyers with damaged exteriors is irresponsible and speaks of disorganization.
A recent report from a reverse engineering firm reported numerous problems with Tesla assembly and reveals a lack of experience on the assembly line.
Reliability by Toyota cannot be beat!
1
Where is the model-T of Electric Vehicles? Majority of people don't need and don't want a self driving car. However we still need an EV which will give us a good charge distance and not cost an average household income. No one is working to achieve that so the jump to EV has been slow and bumpy. Looks like the Japanese are sitting this one out?
1
The last paragraph about Ford scrambling to catch up should have been the lead. In fact, both companies are late to the game and this is just a way to try to catch up. I appreciate the effort, but I don't have a lot of confidence in either company. Volkswagen's constant announcements and accompanying lack of actual products is something of a running joke in EV circles already. Ford has exactly one EV now. Meanwhile, Tesla is forging ahead with great cars, and Chevrolet has a very good EV with the Bolt and more to come. Same with Nissan, Hyundai and Kia to various extents.
7
"“The financial investment is immense, and yet we don’t know when they will be in the marketplace or how they will make money,' said Michelle Krebs, a senior analyst at Auto Trader. 'It’s not just the money. The talent pool for people developing these vehicles is small.'” Reality check: A company called Tesla (TSLA) located in Fremont, CA and Sparks, NV has already made the massive financial investment, makes the best -in-class electric vehicles AND batteries, and has a big talent pool dedicated to these tasks. It's interesting that this article conspicuously omits Tesla from "the discussion." Ford and VW are way behind.
17
@JCX
While I agree. The thing that truly irritates me is connecting electric cars to self driving technology is overlooked for what it is.
No one is apparently interested in actually solving the problem of changing the "paradigm" toward electric - even Tesla.
Instead they are spending enormous resources adding a feature of dubious utility in our current environment, excepting adults who cannot drive now anyway - blind or elderly or infirm.
I'd be happy to commute in an electric car. But I also expect, knowing quite a bit about the bulk of the engineering involved, a car that serves the commuter purpose shouldn't cost more than 10k, right now.
Instead we have the stupid status symbols laden with
"cool" gadgets. ugh.
My long range trips would still be gas power in all likelihood, at least for now.
And again, I will never, ever submit to a self driving car. In light of the societal transitions we are observing, it seems like there will be plenty of displaced workers to drive people around anyway.
Has anyone actually bothered to ask consumers if they really want self-driving cars? I wouldn't get in one if you paid me. Zooming down an Interstate at 70 mph how many of us haven't had an experience with another driver that has left us shaking our head at the reckless stupidity with which so many people drive. And we're going to rely on a bundle of computer chips to analyze the situation and make the right choices? Not me, thanks.
11
@TimG
And how has the decision making ability of humans worked out? Almost 37,000 people died on US roads in 2018. Over 2 million injured.
The only objective measure is if deaths are lower in cars driven by computers. If in the future the odds of a fatal crash are much lower in an AI driven car, then parents will refuse to let their children drive their own death machines. This will be seen as progress.
If this happens, you might just change your mind. History is replete with examples of "nevers" becoming believers. Will future you be obstinate or logical?
8
@Jim, Those statistics will have to wait until there are as many driverless cars on the roads as there are now cars being driven by humans. By then, of course we can try to put the toothpaste back in the tube.
3
@TimG You just made the case for autonomous vehicles!
2
The authors of this article never once mention Tesla, an AMERICAN car company that already is producing electric vehicles that are currently capable of autonomous driving. The hardware (cameras, sensors, radar) is already installed in hundreds of thousands of Tesla cars on the road right now, and the software is as well: the current Autopilot software on all Tesla cars allow for autonomous driving RIGHT NOW on highways, and will be updated at the end of this year for autonomous driving on city streets.
My Tesla Model 3 drives itself; how could you write about the future of self-driving cars when you don't even mention the current state of self-driving cars?
Tesla cars were a niche market (high-end cars, Model S, Model X, Roadster), but with the Model 3, Tesla now makes a car for under $40k. Go to a Tesla showroom or find a friend who owns one, and take it for a test drive. There is no reason to wait until 2021 or 2030 (as mentioned in the article).
Readers of the NYT: you are smart people, please don't let articles like this one pass as your only education about electric cars or self-driving cars. The authors of this article either are biased for some reason (Tesla stock is the most shorted stock on the market, so many people would financially benefit from their failure), or are ill-informed.
42
@Joe D
I agree. It is hard to take this article seriously when they don't even mention the leader it both electric car technology and self driving. Tesla is setting the standard and everyone else is struggling to catch up to where Tesla was five years ago.
Tesla is now able to use billions of points of driving data on their current cars driving performance, and are using that data to create software that learns from that experience. They are currently way ahead of everyone else in developing fully self driving capabilities.
I am a Tesla Model 3 owner as well, and in the six months I have had the car, the over the air updates have improved both it's range and its semi-autonomous driving capabilities.
23
Self driving cars are imaginary, they are as real as Mickey Mouse. They do not represent any real possibility that yet can exist, not even by accident. One could set up an isolated system that only includes cars operated under the control of the mathematical formulas called algorithms and have a great time watching them, but it would be exactly the same as a model train set. Without self awareness, these machines would become a menace if introduced to our real world roads and highways.
@Joe D
I agree. I have been driving a Tesla Model X (2016), and continue to be amazed by the technology that has gone into it. I regularly use the "driver assist" features of the car with full confidence. Tesla is dragging the industry into the EV and autonomous driving technologies; and the author of this article has totally missed that context.
6
Call me a skeptic.... I just don't see how they can overcome the challenge of constantly changing traffic due to construction..... especially here in Dallas-Fort Worth. Everyday is a different traffic pattern.
3
@Jordan
> I just don't see how they can overcome
> the challenge of constantly changing
> traffic due to construction..... especially
> here in Dallas-Fort Worth. Everyday is a
> different traffic pattern.
Self-driving cars will be "connected cars" and the first vehicle through that stretch of road each day will update the map for every other vehicle that will pass through the area that day. (And the process will be continuous, continuing to update throughout the day.)
In this way, they will be far more aware of the current road conditions than will most human drivers.
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Uh... how many people out there can't wait to buy a self-driving car? Please raise your driver's licenses (which you will no longer need for anything much.) Personally, I wouldn't get in one, let alone own one. My life insurance forbids it.
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36,000 deaths each and every year on our nations roads
Which you don’t mention at all when people are at the wheel.
Tesla autopilot is already significantly safer on a per million miles driven basis with billions of miles of data.
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@G
No A.I. system has ever been able to grasp as much awareness of reality as a fish, yet you trust it to be a rational operator of a machine able to wreck havoc on anything in it’s vicinity?
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Two criminal companies working together.... makes sense
5
Electric is the way to go. I love my Tesla model 3 because it is beautiful inside and out, as environmentally friendly as a car can be, goes a long way on one charge, and is a joy to drive.
Why are self driving and electric always lumped together? Just make an excellent electric vehicle that has great safety features and let people who like to drive have some enjoyment.
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How can this story not mention Tesla? Is there any doubt it started this whole thing and is years ahead of every company mentioned?
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@Greg Steimel
Everyone likes to talk about Waymo, and Bloomberg News for some reason believes Tesla is near the bottom of the self driving race.
However Tesla is way out ahead in both electric and self driving technology. The difference between self driving cars in preset areas as opposed to general autonomy is the same as the difference between rail tracks and tarmac. The amount of data alone that Tesla has amassed gives them a significant advantage over competition. If I were other large car companies I would consider equipping sensors to production cars solely for the purpose of collecting information.
All Musk's companies are years ahead of any relevant competition, not only that they still move faster. By the time the industry catches up Tesla/SpaceX will be onto something else.
I understand how difficult the business aspect is yet everyone still keeps underestimating Musk.
On the bright side developing self driving systems should get significantly cheaper over the coming years.
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It didn’t start research into autonomous driving technology (not even close) and it’s so-called “autopilot” is if anything years behind other efforts.
1
Behind which efforts? Have you ever used autopilot?
First BMW and Daimler, now Ford and VW.
Could it be that Tesla Model 3 is having a huge impact on the whole auto world? You bet it is.
There is a sudden realization that incumbency is no advantage. Everything Tesla has learned in the last 15 years is accumulated knowledge.
A Tesla Service center has the equivalent EV expertise and depth of maybe 30 regular car dealerships and service centers. So having a dealer network is a huge future training cost and change liability as transformation happens.
In manufacturing, Tesla doesn’t make interiors as luxurious as BMW or Mercedes or Jaguar, but they have figured out the integrated batteries, motors and software-defined lifecycle like no one else in earth.
Doing that is crazy hard, and a lot of armchair skeptics don’t appreciate that. There’s tens of billions of dollars of capital expenditure ahead for big auto, and they’ll still be behind.
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@Anon
Agreed. Too many miscalculated that an electric car was as simple as replacing the engine with an electric motor, and the gas tank with a battery. It's so much more and Tesla leads the way.
To paraphrase a certain someone: "Nobody knew electric and self-driving cars could be so complicated!"
6
The psychological barriers for self driving cars are going to be just as difficult to surmount than the monetary ones. I have a feeling there will be broad skepticism for quite awhile about these technologies.
4
Less fossil fuel vehicles; more green solar-wind batteries and electric fuel vehicles....with or without a human driver.
Make Planet Earth's Climate Great Again.
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Electric vehicles are a great idea but most of them charge their batteries from fossil fuel burning power plants. Still, I suppose we save the environmental expense of the fuel being hauled around the country daily by dirty diesel semi trucks.
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@Gary Pahl
Ignorance and willingness to educated by those wanting your money are the most important resources for modern business.
Stir in a little brand fetishism and you are on your way.
Someday, when we are, at midnight, paddling around the streets of the major coastal cities, re-purposing corroded infrastructure for our lean-tos we retreat to during the day to hide from the solar wind and alley sharks, we will find our way back to common sense and self reliance.
@Gary Pahl
> Electric vehicles are a great idea
> but most of them charge their
> batteries from fossil fuel burning
> power plants.
At least you didn't say "coal burning power plants".
Here in the New England ISO, we almost never burn coal anymore so my Chevy Volt is mostly powered by Natural Gas, Nuclear, Canadian Hydropower, and some wood and trash burning.
But the story's even better in California. At this very moment, the California ISO has the following fuel mix:
• 39.4% renewables (33% solar + 6.4% other)
• 34.3% Natural Gas
• 13.3% Large Hydro
• 7.1% Nuclear
• 5.8% unspecified Imports
They occasionally crest above 50% renewable energy input.
5
The sooner everyone finds ways to make money on clean technologies the higher our chance as a species to save our only habitat.
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