Basically what yo're suggesting is if someone is bullying the neighborhood, we better appease him because we don't want to make him madder. Wow, who knew that this is the way to deal with bullies.
And would you please do NOT use the term Iran and Ayatollahs' government interchangeably. The ayatollahs main war and enemy is and has been with Iranian people in the last 40 years.
3
Who knew Iran was so complicated?
3
Trump is ill equipped to handle foreign relations ( as if this has not been said before) for myriad of reasons; financial self interest, narcissism, spinning failures into successes for his ego and his alter ego base, a negotiating strategy of a weak mafia boss, and an inability to grasp any facts past or present.
Bolton and Pompeo, though not on the surface displaying personality disorders are far more dangerous. Ready to enter another quagmire of death and destruction to satisfy some twisted vision of American might. Did they not see the caskets, the amputees, the post traumatic stress disorders, the rise in terrorism, the displacement of populations, the tide of refugees fleeing to Europe and creating a backlash?
If the times were not frightening enough, where can one find shelter when the crazy man's judgement trumps that of the allegedly sane.?
5
For a President who makes the choice of SCOTUS candidates into a beauty pageant, plays checkers with the appointment of a Secy of Defense, allows for written auditions for AG, and freely cheapens every Federal institution and protocol, why be surprised when he dramatizes the cusp of war? Far from owning the Midas touch, this man owns the Tarnish touch. Everything he touches is cheapened, degraded, made foul. He fouls our ideals, aspirations, institutions, credos, language, and future. If only, like the noxious gaseous bubble he is, he could just self-combust. Give him enough oxygen, maybe he will. Or, deny him enough oxygen and he’ll collapse into the nothingness upon which he feeds.
9
Keep in mind that Trump was a captain -- a captain!-- at the New York Military Academy, and he would have gone on to a great leadership role in the Vietnam War if it were not for those "bone spurs."
(You know, he admires "Old Hickory," but he refuses the honor of being called "Old Bone Spurs." What modesty!)
And to think that Trump -- and only Trump -- thought to ask the hard question of casualties just moments before the operation was to begin. Genius, absolute genius!
It's clearly time for the Dems to stop questioning the wisdom and strategic thinking of our Great Leader. He never ceases to surprise!
8
One moe example of why we are all in jeopardy with this man in the white house. He has no idea of what is going on. His decisions mean nothing and can change on the basis of some TV commentator. To have Trump as Commander in Chief is like having Bambi rule the forest.
3
Sorry to disagree. But Trump is right. He stopped what could be another never-ending war in the Middle East. Unlike W he was courageous not to give in to the war hawks. And the Press could help in not breaking his fragile ego. Stop calling him chicken, wimp etc.!!
Trump and his chicken hawks Bolton and Pompeo have essentially messaged to the Iranians that the U.S. wants regime change. The Iranians don't believe it is about nuclear weapons; they think it is about overthrowing them.
Like he did with North Korea, Trump has offered no alternatives--it's zero nuclear or nothing. So what, exactly, does Trump think the Iranians are going to do? Flip him and Bolton the keys?
He got burned and embarrassed by North Korea by taking a similar stance, and given that the rest of the signatories to the Iranian treaty don't support what he's doing, he is going to get burned again. I guess this "very stable genius" doesn't learn from history--even his own.
3
Just imagine the atmosphere in the situation room at the time of the aborted attack. Yesterday it was a happy ending. Next time the entire Middle-East might be burning in a matter of days. Scarry. A handful of people saved many, many lives; I salute these unsung heroes.
Mr. Kristof---reality check---what makes you think Trump would read your four steps? Here is man who doesn't read his own governments intelligence briefings, hasn't read a book, why go on...
2
The question we need to ask is, how discredited is the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)? Isn't this the much-vaunted body of great elite men and women who orchestrate America's foreign policy from behind the scenes? You will find very few articles or news pieces about the CFA here in the Times or elsewhere but people like Bolton, Pompeo, Richard Perle, Paul Wolfowitz, Zbigniew Brzezinski and a whole host of warmongers have served time in it. The CFA is the Ivy League University that trains warmongers. War is good for Defense Corporations and Non-Defense Corporations alike. First we use the CIA to work from the inside of a country to plot coups and assassinations, arm rebels, fund Jihads etc. Next we gin up a war using the media and CFA alums in Government, then we bomb the country into smithereens and then we send in 'aid' and the Corporations to 'rebuild'. Rinse and Repeat. Korea, Vietnam, Central America, Latin America, Panama, Afghanistan, Iraq....
5
“Iran’s decision to shoot down a drone in its own airspace would be understandable”. And even if it was a few miles outside those territorial waters - imagine what would happen if Iran, Venezuela, China or Russia flew a military plane just a few miles from the US border!
4
Trump treats international relations as a midtown Manhattan real estate deal. He’s losing, badly.
2
Trump playing a chicken with Ayatollah is nonsense. Trump has been tough on Iran and pursued a non violent path to getting Iran to stop enriching Uranium to a level it could have a few nuclear bombs. He has kept tough sanctions on the Ayatollah and torn the nuclear deal which he said was a poor deal. Just because Trump has not bombed civilians which unfortunately many Americans would have liked to have seen does not mean that Trump is playing chicken.
Playing cautiously and carefully so that there are no civilians lost in response to the downing of an unmanned drone should be applauded by all and sundry. Thank you president Trump for being prudent and courageous in sparing the lives of innocent Persians and fathers in uniform.
Sometimes not doing something hasty and stupid is the best thing one can do. Mark my words. Within a month there will be a high level meeting in Switzerland or some other neutral country to negotiate peace and lifting of sanctions. If Iran is defiant because of the downing of unmanned drone it their loss. Bravado will only go as far as it is perceived. The USA can give a black eye to Iran without sending a single soldier in harms way. Don't get Trump started. Give peace a chance.
I can say without a doubt that the reelection of Trump is a sure thing if he does not start any new regime change war. He did not send a single US soldier to Venezuela and that was a great move.
9
The piece brings up the Iranian civilian jet liner we shot down in 1988, at a time when we were engaged in supporting Iraq as a proxy against Iran in a very bloody war. Most Americans have probably forgotten the event, if they ever caught it when it was a current event.
As to current events there is a criminal trial being forged against Russia for shooting down a civilian airliner in a war zone. Similar proxy thing, an historical "rhyme". Oddly, no trial was ever held in the case of the Iranian plane...
The US has been immune from war crimes actions. And we continue to do them. Iraq a recent one (Nam, of course, the biggest in my generation's memory). Trump deserves honor for having passed on the military action.
This time. But our mind set is geared to seeing every conflict/confrontation as a nail that merely needs the right size hammer. THAT "weltanschauung" needs a change. Pronto.
It goes without saying we should unfriend the Gulf autocracies. They are inimical to our basic, supposed, root principles. Our only bond, ever, was $$$ and oil.
And, back when we shot down the Iranian plane, backing Saddam to protect Saudi Arabia was the big "strategic" idea.
Pure genius (which I believe Bolton had a part in...)
4
The US drone was there to conduct surveillance, which it would be doing over Iran's airspace, not out over international waters. This is "well duh" stuff. Now (after coming close to the POTUS being pushed into an attack by his chicken hawk advisers) we have senior administration officials kinda sorta admitting off the record that "well, yeah, it might have been over Iran's airspace." Continued lying and belligerence by the US. End of diplomacy and no chance of any serious international negotiator engaging in serious or binding negotiations with a POTUS who throws out "agreements" as if they were a candy wrapper. Can't see how this can end well; this administration can't be removed from office soon enough for world stability.
6
This is the most biased, opinionated, warped and distorted view of Trump, Iran, American military forces, Israel and Saudi Arabia that has ever been published.
Frankly Mr. Kristof it is impossible to know who's side your on. Trump was not and is not playing chicken with the Ayatollah. This time Trump was right on target. He did exactly what Jack Kennedy did in 1962 when his military chiefs were pushing hard for massive strike and invasion of Cuba, Jack Kennedy insisted upon another solution. The answer was an embargo and it worked.
Trump did not invade or strike Iran over an unarmed Drone and he should receive all do credit for that good and decent response. He also gave the Iranians a way out by asserting that the Iranians probably had a local commander who acted without authority and it was a mistake. Hopefully the Iranians will take advantage of the opportunity for them to stand down and save face.
As for the collision course that you believe American and Iran are on, you're 100% wrong. Internally in Iran moderates are seeking reform and change. The Iranian leadership is paying attention as their economy is staggering under American sanctions, sanctions that were imposed by Donald Trump.
The collision that you predict is actually within Iran as an educated, intelligent middle class is demanding change. The young people of Iran are tired of military repression and external trouble making.
Kristof you need better information and less of a personal agenda to attack Trump.
1
For all his bungling with Iran, President Trump did something right - he did not go to war with Iran! Unlike W who succumbed to the war-hawks in his Administration, he did NOT succumb to the likes of Pompeo and Bolton. And that is courage! But I only hope he does not change his mind by the war-hawks and the Press calling him a wimp, weak etc. etc. He has a very fragile ego. Let's call him courageous instead. He deserves it!
Once more Trump plays an old trick by creating a "crisis" which he immediately solves. Trump should have considered the consequences before he ordered the attacks. He deserves no credit for restraint.
A real crisis is brewing amid the bluster and blunder around the Straits of Hormuz. The unilateral sanctions imposed by Trump deprive the 81 million people of Iran of their nourishment and livelihood.
Stationing a navy carrier battle group just off the coast of Iran is an act of war and a foolish provocation. The aircraft carrier is a big, beautiful, tempting target for Iran’s missiles.
Flying military aircraft and drones a few miles from Iran’s coast is a continuing provocation. Electronic disruption of Iran’s military command and control systems is likely to provoke unintended attacks.
Could there be a more convincing demonstration of Iran’s need for a nuclear deterrent than America’s pointless hostility and Trump's continual bullying and belligerence?
2
This reality TV show starring a mentally ill narcissist is on
a perpetual rerun track without having finished a season yet. Why haven't the advertisers abandoned the sinking ship?
2
The operative word, here, is "plays." There is absolutely no need for this madness, this fakery. These lunatics are serving their big donor masters, and continuing our never-ending wars on countries that do no threaten us. Tell Nancy Pelosi that she must set the standard for the Democratic party to end these tactics and wars. She, and her cronies, will have to give up THEIR big donors in order to do the right thing. Why is she so quiet about the big issues?
2
I watched Trump give several alternative explanations for how and why he cancelled the military strike on Iran. I don’t believe it would be possible for any objective observer to think he was telling the truth.
In the first place, his reasons contradicted each other. Did he have casualty info early on or right before the attack? Did the Iran government act intentionally or through a rogue operation? Did they know it was a drone or that it might be manned? All of these contradictory options were raised by Trump in the immediate aftermath of his “decision”.
His obvious and clumsy lies are such a given that no one even mentions the contradictions. We have a President who is a knee-jerk, reflexive liar. I honestly don’t believe he thinks about whether he’s lying anymore. His instant reaction to questions or situations is to say whatever he believes will help him politically—no matter how illogical or contradictory. How did our country get to this point?
61
But it may be that misery is the goal and if it is, US politics are a resounding success. Who is making a profit of misery?
1
Nicholas Kristof observes: "In each of these cases, Trump pursued aggressive tactics without any obvious strategy. "
This is a Trump hallmark. He rampages like a bull moose and confuses bellicosity with a plan. His base likes it, so he does it all the more. His entire presidency has been an extended, raucous, campaign rally.
2
@Richard
How can anyone believe him? Even so, it makes no sense for him to brag about how close he came to starting a major war in the Middle East. Ten minutes!
2
The ayatollah and the ruling mullahs are willing to sacrifice the entire population of Iran, if necessary, to keep their Islamic republic.
You can’t win by killing those willing or forced to die in defense of their home.
As was the case in WWII, it’s only when the people turn against their rulers that change takes place.
We could use some of that here.
2
Its interesting that while the media is largely at best neutral between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Saudi Arabia is a rich failed state and spends its time crucifying, jailing, and beheading its residents, murdering expatriates, and with our help creating mass famine in Yemen. If the U.S. wanted peace with Iran it could end the sanctions and pay off the Israeli debt of 1 billion dollars to Iran as a matter of good will. As for nuclear weapons it is the height of hypocrisy to restrain Iran from getting nuclear weapons which it often says it doesn't want when it allows Israel to have 500. Either both Israel and Iran should have them or the U.S. should enforce a middle eastern nuclear free zone.
3
Mr.Kristoff - I have an addition to your list for Mr. Trump. #5 Resign.
3
As the Times reported Friday, all the generals said Trump had to strike back at Iran for shooting down the unmanned drone to teach them a lesson.
They remember '88, when the US destroyed the entire Iranian navy and shot down a passenger jet (and gave medals to the sailors for great shooting) and Iran did nothing. Iran has spent the years since '88 making certain that if the US tries that again, Iran can and will shoot back. Saudi and Israel figure the US can do a repeat: the Pentagon thinks the US can take out all of Iran's missiles preventing any retaliation. Same as the US assessment in Korea and Vietnam: Iran's military assets are mobile and hidden, and there would be a massive missile strike on US bases, the fleet, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, and not just by Iran, but also by all of Iran's many Shi'a allies.
Trump is playing a TV president. He wanted to look good to his base, but was not stupid enough to listen to the generals.
Let's all hope Trump continues to be Trump, and keeps tweeting Fire and Fury but not actually shooting at anyone. Especially at someone who can and will shoot back.
19
A great column. It’s a good first rule not to take the advice of those who supported (and still defend) the invasion of Iraq, one of the great geopolitical blunders of American history. A second rule might be not to invade any country you can’t find on a map and whose name you can’t be pronounce properly. A third might be to stop seeking foreign policy advice from anyone on Fox News.
2
Anyone expecting Iran to roll over had best review their response to Saddam's invasion. Iran accepted 300,000 dead rather than offer concessions to Iraq. They rightly see the US as a pernicious influence in the Middle East and as an unpredictable and untrustworthy power. It seems to me that they will continue to respond vigorously and asynchronously to our hostile acts
2
To this intelligent analysis I would only like to add one thought:
Suppose an Iranian military drone would be spotted flying in the vicinity of the east coast of the US mainland, not crossing the red line but flying as close and in a pattern corresponding to the guy over the Hormuz sound. l.e. an exact match of the current situation but with reversed colors.
Airspace intrusions happen every day around the globe. Some are inadvertent, others not. The response follows a standard pattern (at least in the Baltic region) and involves sending up two interceptors to ”show the flag” and the conflict can be resolved without bloodshed on any side.
With unmanned aircrafts it is of course more difficult, given that there is no pilot who realizes he has been radar locked and might be late home for dinner, the art of escalation cannot be properly applied. On the other hand: no bloodshed. But this is guessing on my behalf, I have no knowledge of the S.O.P. when intercepting a drone.
But back to the ”reversed scenario”. What would really happen in case there was a drone, Iranian or not, 30 miles from Newport News?
1
Kristof has highlighted Trump’s signature negotiating tactic, applying “maximum pressure”, which is also a symptomatic of his personal mental and psychological weakness. The “artiste” of the deal does not know how to make a deal-a mutually beneficial agreement which advances the goals of the parties- he knows only win or lose. As Kristof notes, most of the people or parties Trump bullies to get his way are in a weak or far subordinate position. China is the exception...and although they see Trump as more than a fly to be swatted and they want access to our consumer market and technology, they have the ability to string him along and wait him out.
Trump bullies his way to short term wins in his mind...but paves the way for thwarting of his own goals. He has bullied migrants and their countries of origin and worsened the crisis. He is the king of tariffs, wielding that sword to the detriment of our economy. As a real estate developer he finagled his way out of the business by battling the financial industry and stiffing his investors, lenders and contractors.
Trump’s bullying is intended to feed his narcissism with apparent “wins” which he can brag about. He Iran debacle dealt him a dose of reality...his ”win”can be a big time loss for the rest of us.
1
Trump woke a sleeping tiger. This is a dangerous thing to do. He may now get trapped by the tiger. I don't think bluster will help.
1
Kristof is using the 1970s dove argument of not antagonizing a bully out there for fear of getting hurt. But there are always some casualties in a war, even Desert Storm. We shouldn't have to tiptoe quietly around a country with the population of Mexico with a seventh of the GDP. Iran is not a country to be feared on the world stage.
There is also nothing that could stop us from going after Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies.
That being said, the problem with Trump and his neocon advisers is the lack of a plan, the lack of goals, and no notion of how to follow up. The correct question is: what is the desired end state and is it achievable?
Iran is a bad apple in world affairs, the product of an irrational regime. We should do everything to discredit that regime internally and weaken its power.
I doubt if the neocons are smart enough to achieve anything like this. They're Reaganite 'feel good' people. We listened to them before in Iraq. They have no credibility now.
And
5. Make the Trump and Kushner families give back the Saudi and UAE money they have taken. Trump/Kushner are so compromised by their business dealings. Trump International and Mar a Largo should be closed immediately to foreign representatives.
We immediately blamed Iran for the attack on the Japanese vessel. And nobody, including Americans, bought it because this administration lies constantly. They produced a grainy video, whose timing of Iranians standing in full view on deck next to a vessel a few hours after it supposedly bombed it, seemed nonsensical and still didn’t convince the Japanese owner of the vessel it was the Iranians.
Pompeo promised more evidence to come. The most probable scenario is there is no further evidence and this administration does what it always does and created a distraction. I think it’s more probable they enticed the Iranians by flying it into their air space.
This is all we have ever gotten from Trump. Inflict pain that needs stitches and show up with a bunch of band aids like he saved the day.
2
Even if we go to war, diplomacy and negotiations will be how we end the war. So why not skip the war and go straight to diplomacy? But then we hit another bump in the road: the State Department is a shell of its former self (the blame for this isn’t entirely with Trump; Clinton, GW Bush and Obama all dealt their own blows to the State Department). We have lost many of the experts who could have helped get us out of this mess. Trump is so heavily focused on threatening, bullying and dangling our military might that he has ignored diplomacy. This should be a lesson for Trump and for the media about refocusing on rebuilding the State Department and using our brains and not our bullets to keep the peace.
20
Iran is not our natural enemy. We propped up a vicious dictator until the Iranians forced the Shah to flee and then gave this war criminal safe harbor. We supported Saddam in launching the war that killed over a million Iraqis and Iranians and branded one of the few quasi democratic nations in the Middle East as a terrorist because it supported Hezbollah, which got its start fighting Israel's illegal occupation of Southern Lebanon. While we have no reason to view Iran as attacking US interests we've been actively attacking and undermining Iran since its revolution. It is no surprise then that Iran sees the US as a willful and dangerous adversary.
Iran's behavior is often unpleasant, but is it worse then the completely illiberal states we ally with such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia? Maybe it is time to return to the nuclear agreement with Iran and then start working on normalized and friendly relations, letting other Middle Eastern states sort out their own relationships with Iran rather than "policing" where are not wanted and where we don't understand the complex and ever changing players in the region.
4
I want to discuss two problems with Nicholas Kristof's editorial. The first is the unstated premise that the U.S. government is legitimate. Yet the vast historical evidence, including numerous examples that he cites here and in his other articles, refutes that assumption.
Kristof criticizes the harms the U.S. government is causing Palestinians, Iranians, Venezuelans and Chinese. Of course, the US government has a record of exterminating millions of innocent people. This is a conclusive argument showing the US government is ethically illegitimate. Hence, Kristof's prescriptions aren't ethically correct.
The second problem is his dehumanizing the evil Bolton and Pompeo as "hawks". Please, stop comparing such evil people with birds or other animals. It is not fair.
7
Militarists in the U.S. have a long and shameful history of starting major wars justified by nonexistent "attacks" on U.S. vessels far from our shores. Remember the Maine and the Gulf of Tonkin. Will our citizens and politicians learn not to do it this time? Or must we accept that we live in a nation often controlled by lying killers?
3
Good thoughts, Mr. Kristof. We, the people, however, are in the dark about what is going on, led by Dishonest John Trump and his band of know-nothings, and being lied-to. The only way out of this mess is to toss DJ, by Congress doing its job/duty and starting the impeachment process. That seems to be the only way to get DJ's attention and to gain the attention of the rest of us....bad stuff is happening!
1
Excellent! I would only suggest that the first sentence of #1 be amended to by inserting the words “congressionally authorized” before “presidential orders ....”
1
All these suggestions telling Dishonest Donald what he should do. You might as well try talking to a cabbage, you would get the same response.
Read the War Powers Act, by law he has to get the approval from congress, where is the so called law abiding GOP on this? If this strike on Iran had gone through,it would be an act of war, an illegal act, congress has to declare war. When this administration is through, we should have a war crimes trial and exile Pvt. Bone Spurs to BW8 in Greenland.
John Bolton is a war criminal, he should be exiled to Iraq where he could be tried by them.
Notice the Iranians have the capability to shoot down American attack aircraft, then what would happen?
2
You should also include in your list of 'maximum pressure' the fire bombing of German and Japanese cities in WWII, the bombing of North Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos which did not result an end to conflict. These testosterone driven destructive desires of these republican war mongers and war profiteers is pure evil and stupid (it does not work).
The only solution is to vote the republicans out of office, put them in jail if they broke laws (national or international) during their tenure and attempt to get our allies back.
This way we can be an example to the free world. We have a long way to go but it can be done with the correct leaders.
2
Pres. Trump’s objective is preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear deliverables. Killing 150 Iranians doesn’t advance that objective.
Would just invite retaliation. Economic constraints are having their positive effect. If they fail the US surely has the air power to destroy key strategic assets and reduce Iran to shambles in a short afternoon. Lets give the President credit for being prudent.
Other Presidents went to War quickly in the mid-East w/o success in achieving their objectives.
@Peter I Berman If his objective was truly preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear deliverables, he would not have tossed an international agreement that was directed to and appearing to be achieving that purpose. That more negotiations on wider topics and to extend the agreement was needed was acknowledged by all parties to the agreement, but that is diplomacy. Trump should have engaged in negotiations with the agreement in place, and worked toward a more lasting peace in the middle east. But that doesn't garner votes from his "low education" voters, or sell arms from which he can garner kick-backs. There is no credit to be given the POTUS who out of pure egotistical spite and hatred of a black president who did good things, simply tore up the US involvement in international agreements - then insisted that the world would do things his way. Three year olds act this way, not responsible adults.
3
It seems odd complimenting Trump for, belatedly, understanding what a measured response means with this Iranian provocation. And, let's stop talking about how wonderful Kerry's treaty was! Iran was flush with cash as a result and went about promoting terrorism with a new vigor. But, I digress.
Fact: the Iranians shot down two drones. Fact: we did nothing. Fact: the Iranians have mined several ships as an act of terror. Fact: they have stepped up other terrorist activities in the area.
This must be stopped. The Iranian navy can be, and should be confronted and chased out of international waters. If they fire on us, plant more mines, or shoot down any more drones we should respond with live fire. If necessary, we should mine their harbors and blockade them. These acts are only self defense.
@Rocketscientist
I am fed up with reading about "Iranian provocation." How would you describe the 30 U.S. military bases encircling Iran, the unilateral abrogation of a signed international nuclear agreement, the interminable sanctions, and the constant threat of military attack?
4
Carter's mistake. He should have crushed them. Problem with weak men dealing with iron-fisted clerics. Could have saved the Middle East from many tens of thousands of deaths.
1
@Alice's Restaurant Hmmm. Guess you missed the whole Iran-Contra scandal of the Reagan administration; and the piece where Reagan's people had secretly encourage the Iranian leadership to hold off releasing the hostages until after the election, in order to have a promise of better relations with Reagan administration (and sales of arms - which was what the Iran-Contra scandal ended up being, including the illegal funding of such arms sales.)
3
The TV president loves to be the center of attention as his presidency is just another chapter of the Apprentice the maximum pressure edition. Tucker Carlson told him the one thing that terrifies him if he attacked Iran he could lose re-election that could mean he's a Loser and he would face criminal prosecution and his brand would take a big financial hit. Kushner would lose his sugar daddy MSB and his security clearance that he was marketing. Bolton and Pompeo will out wit Trump and get their war by hook or by crook and get us into a war with Iran with massive loss of lives destroying the world economy.
1
This is the key to it all....
"Disentangle the US from Saudi Arabia & the United Arab Emirates... played a pernicious role (along with Israel) in encouraging belligerence toward Iran (the Senate took a landmark step in the right direction a few days ago by voting to block weapons sales to Saudi Arabia)."
This provocative stuff all started after Trump's Saudi visit. Too many princes were pouring their ugly rhetoric in his ears. Iran is not benign either but... why can't diplomacy be used. Why?
I remember an episode of "Twilight Zone" from 1980-90s.
A giant alien ship comes over earth and neutralizes all tech and machinery, pulverizes nuke weapons.
They ask all countries, the only way, we would not annihilate earth is if you reach peace agreements and stop wars.
We have been watching you folks for few thousand years.
You don't change, you do the same stupid stuff again and again.
A huge meeting is called, the council sits down to talk.
Even with this huge threat, Israeli & Palestinians are going at one another, Russia refuses to back down, China & USA are at one another's throat.
When time limit expires, the council asks for an extension, they beg. An alien guy (he looks like someone with Acromegaly, all prime in a suit) says this:
We had already decided to destroy you people; you've been trying to do it for millennia as is. This council idea was just a test to prove what we already know. You just proved us.
And earth is blown to smithereens.
4
The difference between intelligent and stupid, exhibit A:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/obama-others-warned-trump-that-pulling-out-of-iran-nuke-deal-could-lead-to-war/ar-AADgxT2?ocid=spartanntp
"So let's not mince words. The choice we face is ultimately between diplomacy or some form of war — maybe not tomorrow, maybe not three months from now, but soon," Obama said in a speech in 2015 defending the deal before a congressional vote. Trump as a candidate vowed to dump what he called "the worst deal ever" and he made good on his promise in 2018. A year later, Trump is openly discussing the pros and cons of bombing Iran. In his 2015 speech, Obama said that without an agreement limiting Iran's nuclear program in return for sanctions relief, any U.S. administration would be left with only one option to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon — "another war in the Middle East."
Need I say more. I cannot add to this.
3
"When Crazies Ruled America". Will that be the obituary of the American Empire?
To many in the outside world, the "greatness" of America's powerful role in international geopolitics ended shortly after the end of WW II. The Korean War was a 'joint' effort that went nowhere. Vietnam was an unparalleled disaster. Afghanistan is a cancer that will not die. Iraq ......... let's not talk about fairy tale WMDs created by Cheney, Rumsfeld, Bolton and Company. And now, the "sacrificial offerings" in Yemen an one in Ankara all aided by the Trump and Kushner's pal, Salman.
In between were forays into Latin America with the CIA helping to assassinate Archbishop Romero, overthrow Allende, and prop up cruel military dictators, and countless failures in Cuba, Venezuela, Panama.
Now the "Crazies" are trying to muscle in on Iran, after having failed once before with propping up the despotic Shah Pahlavi and helping depose a democratically elected Mossadeq. US love affair with Egypt's Al Sisi seems similar to that with Shah Pahlavi. None of that led anywhere except to graveyards.
When will they ever learn?
4
There are at least three religious wars in this region. (1) Shia v. Sunni (a war started in 661 when Ali was murdered by Sunnis; the war in Syria relates to this). (2) US v. Taliban.
(3) Israel v. Iran. The US should not be involved in religious wars. Yes to disentanglement with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Yes to disentanglement with Israel until its government does something positive and permanent for the Palestinians. Yes to leaving Afghanistan just as we left Viet Nam--let's not be governed by the sunk fund fallacy.
As long as we have a finger in the dike we assist in the status quo. If we leave something will change. The resolution of these senseless wars is for the combatants. Eventually, except for the Irish situation, Protestants and Catholics stopped killing each other. As for a war against Iran, the motive seems clear enough: revenge for holding US diplomats and citizens hostage for 444 days beginning November 4, 1979.
"Self inflicted blow". aka Trump modus operandi. I refuse to applaud Trump backing away because
A. He instigated this whole mess with Iran.
B. This all seems like Pentagon public relations coverup
C. Since when does Trump spell correctly (i.e. proportionate).
D. And, Trump has a history of backing off from messes that are way over his head. i.e. shutdown, Mexico tariffs, etc.
E. And finally, It wasn't like he was going to bomb an empty airfield again. And someone finally explained that to him.
2
Sounds like all the remote exotic places have run out of poor starving children. Normally that should be a good thing.
This reads like rational foreign policy. I suspect that Trump is in too deep with the Saudi's and the UAE; his debts are our folly.
2
No, Nick, we the people shouldn't just be left to "look out." Only congress has the power to declare war. This GOP- and Trump-induced crisis is what happens when brainless bully / cowards with no military, diplomatic or political experience are made President of the United States.
1
It is wrong to call this policy. Policy implies the presence of a thoughtful process that links aims to tactics under the guidance of know-how, wisdom, smarts.
This isn't policy and it isn't working. Anywhere. Not in North Korea. Not in China. Not in Venezuela. Not with the Palestinians.
Never forget it: We are in this place because Mr. Trump, moved by racist animus, cancelled President Obama's pretty darned good Iran agreement.
This is "playing chicken." This has been non-stop provocation, pushed by right wing extremist Pompeo nonsense and pro-war Bolton mania.
We knew it could come to this. That we would not be able to trust anything this administration says. Now, an administration official has admitted that the drone might have violated Iranian airspace.
It is wrong to call any of this a policy. And it is wrong to call this man a president. Very fine editorial, otherwise, and I agree with Nick's prescriptions.
(The Trumpies love this but they don't count. They are unhinged and untethered, overly fond of violence, motivated by sugar plum visions of everlasting white superiority.)
2
Just for the record are we at war with Iran now? Is it just me? I came up with a high number of four hundred well nearly as high as you could get. But I never wanted to go not because I was a coward or down Jerry and Abbie. I didn't want to kill Vietnamese. Anyone else like that?
Trump might be playing games but it isn't the first time he didn't think killing civilians was worth it. So, in this case, you agree with the outcome. No one died and no war for now. It's just that you don't like his style.
Tucker Carlson isn't a college graduate and on Fox News. You don't like his style either. He reran a segment he did with John Bolton attacking him and Neo-Cons. It wasn't pretty. Imagine on Fox News too.
Are you surprised you can agree with Carlson, Fox News, and Trump? No way? You're much better than them but if you don't want to go to war with Iran you better learn how to listen outside of your class.
the president's BFF on the world stage are brutal tyrants: putin in russia, kim in north korea, MBS in saudi arabia, netanyahu in israel.
the main purpose of the war against iran is to carry water for the israelis and the saudis. if the president fails to provoke the war, his waterboy aspirations will be lost.
3
trump's strategies all come down to how his family can profit most.
2
Watch the miniseries, Chernobyl. It dramatizes what could be our future unless and until people wake up from their stupor and realize that we have no earthly idea what actually happened re: the call-off. Trump could have made the entire thing up. The only thing I absolutely believe is that Bolton and Pompeo lobbied for war. The rest of the tale is suspect. And that is what you have when you have a lying leader.
2
Mr. Trump's Mexican border wall: a dud.
Mr. Trump's denuclearization talks with Kim: a dud.
Mr. Trump's commercial war with China and the rest of the world: a dud.
Mr. Trump's sanctions and threats against Iran: a dud.
We should no longer say Mr. Trump, President of the United States, but rather Mr. "Dud" Trump.
1
The elephant in the room that pundits and experts such as Kristoff are apparently afraid to even touch on is Israel's nuclear arsenal.
Officially, it's not supposed to exist. But, of course, it does. Israel is estimated to have between 80 and 400 nuclear weapons.
The world is demanding that Iran not develop weaponry like Israel.
Of course, Israel and Iran are bitter enemies who wish to gravely harm, if not destroy, each other.
Is it not illogical to require one adversary to remain unarmed while its enemy has the ability to reduce it to ashes?
None of the wise people struggling to keep Iran from developing a bellicose nuke program note this inherent if not fatal flaw.
What reasonable person can expect that Iran will forever abandon plans to acquire nuclear weaponry so long as it faces the potential threat of Israeli nuclear annihilation?
Certainly America would never entertain such an insane course of action.
2
To cancel the nuclear deal that was working is bad in and of itself. But to impose crippling sanctions on Iran - destroy their economy, impoverish their people - is tantamount to a declaration of war on Iran. But Iran lacking military might cannot respond in kind to USA. Still to treat Iran the way you treat a pole cat - the pole cat will fight back with everything it has got. Terrorism is the new kind of warfare that will take hold. The world will be a mess (Trump's favorite word) for another 100-years.
Trump at the behest of Saudi Arabia and Israel is bullying Iran. The tactic of bullyism is unconscionable and shameful.
2
America can't even beat the Taliban. Trump is a dotard. America does not have the capability to engage in a conventional ground war. Don't underestimate the Persians. They have some serious mathematical DNA under their control. The Persians have a cultural propensity to be mathematicians as history has shown. All it will take is a string of code (not a nuclear weapon) to disable American society. So has America moved from the "cold war" to the "code war"? In this war it takes just a few taps of a computer keyboard and dystopia is not a Netflix binge watch but is here on Trump's watch.
1
With the reckless Bolton in his sphere and right wing fundamentalists Pence and Pompeo along to encourage, prospects for more close calls or all out engagement are likely. Trumps need for his ego to be stroked by Bibi or MBS doesnt help matters either.
Thinking Trump would rationally back off and use diplomacy is wishful thinking.
2
This is Trump a his best, proclaiming that he has found a solution to a crisis that he himself created.
2
Step 5. Hire people who know more than you do.
1
The four steps delineated here are logical and prudent, and, therefore, not likely to be seriously considered by the feckless, preening, reality TV president and his bumbling chicken hawks.
2
Will the New York Times
please do its Journalistic Duty
and investigate:
a) Who authorised a large slow moving drone to
fly anywhere near the Iranian Border ?
At 65,000 feet you can see into Iran sufficiently well
to see what is going on in its ports.
b) What are the standing orders for the commander of
a Destroyer should Iranian Motorboats close in on
his ship. Does he have digression to fire or must he
request permission from higher ups - all the way to
President Trump - if so what is he supposed to do
if the Iranian Motor Boats have surrounded him and
like the Pueblo in 1968, demand his surrender or
so damage the Destroyer that it can no longer
continue to fight ?
Talk about a "Trip Wire" for War with Iran.
c) What will constitute victory in the War ?
After all we were unable to locate and destroy the mobile
missile launchers that Iraq used in the Gulf Wars, so what
is going to prevent Iran from doing likewise against
very large and very slow moving ships in the narrow
sea passage that is the Strait of Hormuz ?
d) The Chinese will gladly supply Iran with whatever modern
weapons they would like - can the US effectively parry them
or will it be a tit for tat war ?
Please provide the information as a Public Service.
Mr. Kristof,
Any chance you might want to run for president?
You've got my vote already.
1
Who knows why he pulled the strikes?
We can’t tell from what he says.
The conflict may start “surgical,” but it’s unlikely to end that way.
As the old saying goes, surgery successful, patient dead.
2
“Trump seems to inhabit a fantasy world in which his abandonment of the Obama nuclear deal with Iran, along with sanctions and bellicose tweets, will force Iran to roll up its nuclear program.”
This fantasy world is otherwise known as the Fox News bubble (and related conservative fever swamps), where Obama was an overmatched pacifist who weakened our country, and/or a secret Muslim who was masterminding the destruction of America. In this bubble the bloviators talked about supposedly simple, obvious solutions, and our current president fully bought into and even encouraged that thinking.
Of course they were as horribly wrong as they were mean-spirited, and this travesty of an administration is the result.
1
I wish Trump would appoint Mr. Kristof and Mr. Cohen as his advisors.
2
Perfect advice in this article. If only Trump could read! But you are completely right about his maximum pressure fetish. The biggest obstacle to a more measured, effective plan is that with Trump, it really is all for show - nothing is particularly real to/for this guy. He's had this miserable life-long habit of not caring about anything but those hedonistic desires of his, and because he doesn't care, it's very doubtful he has any capacity at all for CONCERN. I think he is truly decadent. Try as he might not to sabotage his re-election, suddenly getting a handle on some discipline is probably next to impossible for him. The trip to Camp David - another farce to make himself look like he's actually serious about something. Anything. From all this craven chaos, someone else's good idea may emerge, he may, with a bit of luck, latch on to a plan shoved in front of him by a desperate general or two. If only Nicholas Kristof could appear on FOX, he might stand a chance of getting in on the action.
2
I agree totally with the other comments. If the US got into a war with Iran it would be catastrophic. The most likely outcome would be Iran winning and occupying most major US cities. We can not walk around thinking we can win any war look at Iraq and Afghanistan, CNN had experts on last night who said a war with Iran would be Iraq times 10 and a disaster for the US.
2
Bolton is discussing our Iran policy with Netanyahu. Let's face the truth, Israel is controlling and meddling in our Iran intervention and insisted we leave the agreement. They want us to fight their war just like in Iraq. We have to say no.
2
I searched this article in vain for the words "negotiate" or "negotiation". But it wasn't mentioned. Trump and his team don't know how to negotiate anything. It's an art and a skill. Challenging problems like Iran and North Korea can only be solved through skillful negotiation and diplomacy. President JFK knew this. ("Let us never negotiate out of fear, but let us never fear to negotiate.") President Obama knew this, as did Reagan, Bush43 and Clinton. To quote The Caine Mutiny -- We're in trouble with this joker.
2
In fact, it's the other way around. The Ayatollah is playing chicken with the USA, as did Saddam, Qaddafi, and Bin Laden. They are dead now, as will the Revolutionary Guards and their leaders, should the US decide to attack.
Maybe the strait of Hormuz will be blocked for a while and oil prices will skyrocket--again, for a while.
But Iran's government will fall, and soon normalcy will return to that part of the world, sans Iran's Ayatollahs.
When you're a Volkswagen Beetle it is suicidal to go head on against a Peterbilt.
the Times, as always, excoriates our shy, humble, uber-rational President for not bombing Iran... if the decision had gone the other way, the Times would have, of course, excoriated him for doing so... the bomb/don't bomb scenario was binary, not multi-optioned... Times readers (and this reader, who lived thru the Vietnam years) favor the "don't bomb" option - but nonetheless always find something to excoriate: the President's false love for 150 Iranians, Tucker Carlson, Putin's control of Trump, etc, etc..... all so predictable … meanwhile, the price of crude oil and gasoline have calmed down and the results of Iran sanctions make the corrupt regime increasingly unpopular, to say the least
Step Five: Pursue multilateral talks to denuclearize the middle east. Israeli nukes have to be on the table too.
2
foreign policy by self-dealing..that seems to be the way things have been going, pr stunts and deals for the potus family to rake in more dough.
2
One year, six months, twenty nine days until Trump leaves office! Praying we survive!
2
Bolton and Pompao are interchangeable names with Rumsfeld and Cheney. Expect a comparable outcome.
2
I was staying at The Towers at Lotte1 New York Palace Hotel just before the election of Trump. One of the housekeepers spoke candidly with me about knowing Ivana and Donald Trump.
She said that she worked for Ivana and Donald when they bought and lived in the Plaza Hotel. She said he verbally and physically beat her, which is what stands up under scrutiny by over a dozen testimonies of women and Ivana’s own statements as part of her divorce decree.
We knew this before he was elected. What I find unfathomable is how the electorate could vote a man in who is known to allegedly rape and beat up women. Then I went to a Trump rally interloping on the Fourth of July in Washington in 2016.
People said he was the first presidential candidate that “spoke like us.” The women looked side lined by the men.
Spoke like us, like “grab their ...”.
Abuse of women is rampant in our country. What are men going to do about it? Are you going to vote for a woman more capable than any of the men running, or are you entrenched in this brutal cycle of keeping women down at any cost?
1
Good advice Mr. Kristof, but Trump doesn’t take advice. Especially from the fake-news media. Remember, he knows more than the generals.
It’s sad when very few people believe Trump’s version of what happened. It’s gotten to where you can tell when he’s lying. Well mostly he’s lying when he’s talking, but in addition, his tone of voice, his faux sincerity, his tilt of the head - all indicate that he’s making this up as he goes along. For a person who lies so much, he’s a lousy liar. You’d think practice would make perfect.
He is SUCH a novice. As in his business dealings, he messes up all the time. These days, his father can’t rescue him from his idiocy and stupid mistakes. Tucker Carlson apparently had a great deal of input here. Maybe Hannity will save us from nuclear war.
God help the United States of America.
2
I like these ideas. Ultimately, we cannot forget that Iran is a sovereign nation and can do as it wishes. We will not force a stop to its nuclear program without giving up something. We had that compromise and Trump idiotically tore it up. He should save face by creating a “better” deal like he did with NAFTA. While it is all stupid at least Trump saving face should keep us out of war.
1
Trump is completely unfit and unprepared to deal with issues on the world stage.
He is a dangerous laughingstock.
Thanks, GOP.
2
It is not reassuring that decisions of war, life and death are left to a narcissistic bumbling buffoon, advised by a FOX News right-wingnut war hawk - and FOX News’ Tucker Carlson!
Perhaps Judge Judy can chime in?
2
So....now it's confirmed...a FOX Entertainment talking head is guiding the military decisions of the US.
Trump had to be TOLD by a TV guy that starting a war might not be smart?!?!?!?!
THAT should be the major concern here.
So all Trump's military advisors etc are just window dressing. Imagine how impotent they must feel today....boo hoo.
When it comes down to it, Hannity and Carlson tell Trump what to do. And anyone who doubts this "strike" is the ONLY thing they guide him to do must have thier head in the sand.
Disgusting. Now lets here the spin of how this was a thoughtful re-thinking of spending millions to stage a phoney show attack.
Actually, as much as I can't stand Trump, I hope he DOES win in 2020.
It'll be just about time for the next recession ( which he will blame on the Dems if they win), no wall will be have been built, the deficit will have exploded even more, and we will probably be at some kind of 15 year war where American men other than the Trump family will be dying to satisfy his "base".
ALL of the Trump created problems will become the Dems fault if they win in 2020.
Look how everyone has forgotten that the financial crisis of 2008 started BEFORE Obama took office.
I am thankful that this moron in the White House DID listen to Carlson....I can't stand FOX, but since Trump can't make a cogent decision, I'm glad in this case he listened. FOX is a funny entertainment station, but I'd rather rail at that fact then even think of another war.
1
Trump ridicules Obama yet he does the same thing:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/22/us/politics/trump-obama-clinton-strikes.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
He also hates the Clintons, yet did the same thing as Clinton did when president.
1
I think it was Liz Cheney on PBS about Trump shouldn’t have back down.
This coming from the coward father Dick Cheney who had (5) deferments from the Vietnam war.
Go away Liz, you and your family have very minuscule credibility when it comes to protecting this country.
2
We had an AWACS shadowing this drone less than a mile away, the Hawk was obsolete junk flying below altitude, trolling or chumming for a hit?
1
The President wisely is letting Iran make the next move, and then when they do, “BAM! “No more mister nice guy with those jihadist cowards, and the world will applaud him for his restraint...Let Israel and Saudi Sunni ground combat troops to the cleaning up while the USA provides the air, naval and resupply, and that rotten regime will collapse from within..
MAGA must mean Make America Groan Again. Trump's idiotic antics in foreign policy have diminished us to bluster and buffoonery. Sooner or later, he will find his self-image threatened by these failures. Then: Watch out!
2
Trump must have "gone with his gut" again on deciding at the absolute last minute to halt these unnecessary attacks.
This is simply in his nature, as he has consistently shown he relies on his considerably-sized beltline protrusion to make decisions, usually based on [almost] the last thing he heard from [name of advisor here] ... because he doesn't have the "best, ah, brain."
What should frighten all of us is that Mike Pompeo - an Evangelical Christian with a flair for [quite literally!] hurrying Armageddon - is apparently driving this senseless drumbeat to war.
May g*d help us all.
2
“...if the administration is caught lying to the world...”
Mr. Kristof, please explain how is this supposed to make a difference? The president’s lies have exceeded 10K. All the world knows that he has no word that can be honored.
Of course the American drone strayed into Iran’s sovereign airspace. The president is provoking Iran because he (a) hates the black man who persuaded an international consortium of both America’s friends and foes to forge an agreement in 2015 and (b) he delights in having no one else onstage with him. It’s all the kindergartner’s “Hey! Look at me!” He is willing to risk global peace precisely because his deepest inner fires must be banked by feeding it to the world’s attention.
He has stupidly yielded place to hawkish advisers with an agenda quite apart from anything he may have thought exciting to his base. He is treating our decreasing alliances and our increasing enemies like he did in the Hollywood Access tape. He’s grabbing us all where it hurts and where he has no business.
But to him, it’s all amusement; just fun. And, of course, lies. What’s a day without one?
2
Very unseemly for Mr. Kristof to be rooting for the Iranians like this. I know Trump is evil and all that, but come on.
Remember 1979!
The Republicans should love the Iranians. They helped them elect Reagan in the famous hostage deal Reagan made.
2
God bless you sir. May the president, or his daughter, or son in law, someone - read your words and follow your advice. Choose a profitable and imperfect peace to a costly and stupid war.
1
The rulers play chicken and the people die...as it has been and always shall be.
1
Not so fun when the "target" can hit you back, isn't it?
2
Getting rid of Pompeo and Bolton is s good start!
2
as a show of good faith, Trump could offer to turn Bolton over to the Ayatollah... and if that seems fruitful, he could up
the ante by throwing in Pompeo. in exchange for a total and verifiable peace accord with Iran that Trump could dine out on for the rest of his life, give him Pence to draw and quarter. cheap at the price. compunction? Trump? what, me worry?
2
What Trump should do is fire Pompeo and Bolton forthwith. The last thing he needs is a Secretary of State who prefers war to diplomacy and a national security adviser openly conspiring with Netanyahu on how to take advantage of Trump's need to look tough to do Israel's fighting in another Middle East war.
5
Beware the man who is perpetually the hero of his own stories....I, and only I.....this crisis with Iran comes from the U.S. failing to meet is obligation under a six nation agreement. Yes, it was not a ratified treaty but only because Netanyahu, Boehner, and McConnell had other plans which included not giving a Democratic President a foreign policy diplomatic 'win' (just as not allowing a Democratic President to nominate a Supreme Court justice). Withdrawing from the Iran agreement announces to the world that the U.S. cannot be trusted to live up to its agreements. I'm quite certain that the only thing Trump was thinking about however the retaliatory strike against Iran was delayed was how his re-election prospects might be effected. When Tucker Carlsen is an influence in the prospect of war, then the U.S. is a grave circumstances.
3
@alprufrock: A Republican Senate is unlikely to ratify any treaties.
“He applied maximum pressure on Venezuela, exacerbating hunger in the streets but leaving the dictatorship in place.”
Which dictatorship is that?
Just calling Maduro (freely elected) a dictator doesn’t make it so. But the statement itself is authoritarian.
Submitted June 22nd 2:40 PM eastern
1
The Republican Party makes it Kristof-clear that they will allow an ignorant egomaniac like Trump to start a war simply because it suits his personal needs. The GOP makes it even clearer that they care nothing about human life, morality or the needs of the American people. For them, it is all about endless power and filling the pockets of their greedy private and corporate donors. How low will this nation sink before Trump and his Republican lackeys are thrown from office? Where is the Democratic leadership during all of this threatening chaos ?
3
Vey thoughtful, particularly points 3 and 4. USA has been dragged by Mr. Bone Saw, Bin Zayed and Benjamin Netanyaho to fight Iran on their behalf. No clever at all.
2
Dear Nick: I adore you and your work, your column and the consciousness it represents.
A nice "tidy little war" with Iran will erupt about 6 months prior to the election. Trump will wave his arms and jump up and down on FOX to sell it because he is "saving America." The poor, stupid fools who listen to him and read his Tweets, will shout hooray, and come out in droves to support this "necessary" war and Trump will beat any Democrat (ANY) who is running. If you do not see this a mile away, you are sleeping.
All your proposals are great but for naught. The man has no brain, he has no scruples, he doesn't read or understand anything much. He even cheats on golf! He is a snake-oil salesman who got elected with the help of Russian hackers and has looked away at the horrid dictators over the world while claiming "victory."
That millions of people love the man is unfathomable but it has happened in the world before. That the Democrats are afraid to impeach him is, at this point, a clear dereliction of duty to uphold the Constitution. Nancy Pelosi is being a nice old lady who doesn't want to make a mess. If they don't at least try to get him out of there before he blows up the Middle East and wrecks America completely, they will be just as much to blame as he. Being scared of losing is a very poor platform on which to face a necessary evil.
I despair every day. We are at the mercy of selfish billionaires and weak Dems. Keep writing, Nick, but stay in touch with reality.
2
There are many ways to gulfoftonkin.
Someone do something!
Trump has no objective here. Its just knee-jerk grandstanding, as he threatens global destruction one minute, then pulls back the next. A very dangerous circus show.
1
Eventually Dr. Frankenstein lost control of The Monster.
Are you paying attention GOP. ?
4
I just woke up and found out that my life was saved by Tucker Carlson.
2
NK should be definetely the president of the Galaxy.
1
Come on, Nick! Why would this Administration want to avoid war?
1
For a guy who does not want middle east entanglements he sure has a funny way of showing it. He hires the people who want that so bad they can taste it. He cozies up to Israel, Saudi Arabia , and the UAE who want it as well. Just as long as the U.S is involved and has their back when they engage in war. This is the pound the square peg into the round hole method of middle eastern diplomacy....Invade until it works out the way you want. Threaten until they fall to their knees.....Don't even consider the context that creates the position the opposition has. And they wonder why there seems to be one flty in the ointment after another. 'This isn't the way it played out in the scenarios we studed in neo-conservatism school'. What was it Einstein said?
2
trumps iran sanctions are working well. keep up the pressure....iran is cracking.....just stand back and watch them melt down even more....no need for direct military actions.....just cyber bomb them to meltdown....
What if Trump is canny enough and was bluffing all along and was “playing” his advisors and the Iranians as he does a NY land deal?
Something like “i am tough and can strike, and was about to strike but i felt bad for Iranian civilians and i have Iranian friends etc. and “ cocked and loaded” would be a deterrent for future acts of terror by Iranians? All the while appeasing Saudi Arabia, Israel, congress and the dovish majority of the American people, and not get the US in a war. Is this at all plausible?
1
Step 1. Fire Bolton
2. Fire Pompeo
3. Beg Mattis to return and actually listen to him.
3
Iran released the coordinates of where they struck the drone. As far as I know the U.S. has not
6
If the news media especially NYT, still believe what Trump says about this incident then we are in trouble as a country. The rest of the world including Iran will not fall for the sex maniac, jingoistic in Chief like the base, the Democrats and the news media are doing with this guy in this country.
1
Your suggested action steps make excellent sense and should be implemented. Only the first has any hope of happening, though. It is within the power of the U.S. defense (offense?) establishment to carry out. The other three require actions by the Trump administration that are exactly opposite to everything they believe and have pronounced. Only after Trump's defeat in 2020 would they be possible.
1
Jared? Care to chime in on this?
This may not be the best prescription but kudos to Kristof for suggesting a course of action instead of following the usual NYT approach to simply whine about Trump.
2
Alas, the Vladster serves his purpose.
1
Thank God the Laurel and Hardy team of Bolton and Pompeo was not successful in starting a new unmitigated disaster in the middle east. It is time that both these fools be fired.
2
Contrary to all the silly commentators President Trump is handling this issue with great flair and imagination. They Iranians have no idea what he will do next and that is just fine. Trump obviously knows what he is doing. As usual, his blind critics rush into print to make fools of themselves.
1
The US has no business contemplating an attack Iran. They are already engaged in a nasty unprovoked economic war against Iran. The US had negotiated a nuclear treaty with Iran that deescalated the situation. Trump is a fool and his neo con advisors are fomenting a criminal misuse of American power.
4
Everything’s a game with Trump - seriously - he made a lot of money on casinos, face it, right? It intrigued him.
Too bad we’re the stakes.
3
Have a Summit with the Ayatollah, Donald.
Better than bullets, missiles and waking up years to come thinking 'why in heavens name did we ever start this'.
3
"…certainly the United States would shoot down an Iranian drone that intruded over our territory."
One wonders what The Land of The Free (old, white, rich men) would do if Iran (or any of those other brown-skinned infidels): repeatedly and randomly invaded America; destroyed our infrastructure; toppled our democratically-elected governments and set up murderous dictators in their place; killed our grandmas and babies; stole our stuff, blah and blah - as we have done and continue to do in the ME?
We have no more right interfering in the ME, than they do interfering in KS.
3
Going to war with Iran is a loosing proposition.
There is no return in investment.
We blow things up and kill people and we get nothing for it.
A primitive and mindless adventure.
3
Mr. Kristof has unfortunately fallen back on his standard emotional reactions to events. There is a major distinction between Iraq and Iran. Iraq is a fabricated post-World War I state with at least four major ethnic groups hostile to each other. Iran is modern-day Persia, 20 times older than the US and with a largely cohesive , homogeneous population.
That is a radical distinction. Further, if Kristof knew anything about the subject, he would know that we have no need to desire to occupy. Even under the Obama agreement, Iran was essentially free to make an atomic bomb. So we will have a theocratic dictatorship, pledged to expansion, pledged to rid the Middle East of Jews, with a bomb and with ballistic missiles to reach Europe.
Whether an attack on bases and military assets -- as Reagan did without consequence to free the Straits, is a good idea, is for people about 10 pay grades about Kristof. He should stick to whatever his bleeding heart usually cares about and leave war to the generals.
Who knew coercing nation-states to knuckle under could be more difficult than dealing with undocumented workers at his golf courses and casinos?
1
Remember Iraq? Larry Feith, Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Peale? Netanyahu and the Mossad and the story about yellow cake uranium? Netanyahu has been constantly beating the war drums for the US to attack Iran for the past 15 years. The USA should not be the proxy army for the Israelis. Trump did the wise thing by not listening to the Neocons.
4
I know it is a major stretch...
But imagine you're an Iranian.
US is the country that has been messing into your politics since early 1950s, always supported the Shah even when his popularity declined. If a hand of diplomacy was extended, it had a slap attached to it. Then, comes the embassy debacle. Your country is vilified on the world stage.
Then, sanctions and sanctions, & support of Iraq by this same country.
US goes out of its way to muck traffic with Iran.
Then, it starts openly backing up Israel, military-wise . Israel becomes the threat to Iran, Syria with its nuke armament directly aimed at these countries.
Iran continues to suffer decline with Iraq war.
More sanctions, continue.
Finally with Obama's intervention, a nuclear deal passes, trade gates open; a sigh a relief.
However, Iran has open enemies in form of SA and UAE (now). These two are in cahoots with that eternal interfering busybody, yes, USA.
But, then US gets this liar of a President who contradicts himself in the same sentence. He becomes more buddies with Saudi and Israel, openly in arms. Nuclear deal gets thrown into the Indian ocean, and an Evangelical-Christian hawkish front-man who thinks Lord is helping him, with aid from a war-monger who always had ties with the terrorist Iranian exiles MEK, both sharpen their daggers to stab Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz gets riddled with US ships, and military presence. Oil, your country's major trade source is threatened.
Now, tell me how do you feel?
75
@Ash. The Iranians see this as a religious war too. They celebrated shooting down the drone with a public prayer ceremony.
2
@Ash. Good summary. Scarier is that POTUS' evangelical advisors believe they are on a mission from god to specifically bring on the End Times by starting a war in the middle east. There is no ability to talk rationally to a man on a mission from god.
11
I'd recommend a day of rage, burning the Iranian Flag, demonizing Iran the great sataa) and threatening to destroy her. Tit for tat.
Pernicious "(along with Israel)"! I suggest it is because of the government of Israel that US foreign policy is a deadly mess. Donald Trump has no love for Jews or the state of Israel per se. No US legislator does. It is all about the power: electoral, financial and otherwise, wielded by Israel. No-one is game to admit this.
IF “in fact [the U.S. drone] have violated Iranian airspace” then the President and the intelligence agencies MUST conduct investigation as to HOW and by WHOM a drone was DIRECTED to violate Iran’s air space as an invitation for getting attacked.
The U.S. MUST investigate HOW and by WHOM the U.S. P-8 Poseidon plane with 35 people that SIMULTANEOUSLY with the drone violated Iranian air space, according to Iran IT could have been destroyed but Iran decided not to attack it with 35 people inside.
This means CERTAIN ELEMENTS INSIDE the military sent the drone AND 35 Americans inside P-8 Poseidon to VIOLATE Iran’s air space, so both get attacked, as the trigger point to start the war with Iran. In other words, if Iran was stupid and unable to distinguish a drone from the P-8 Poseidon, the war was already in its 4rd day.
FIRST, I hope the 35 people inside that P-8 Poseidon and their relatives DEMAND an investigation as to HOW and by WHOM they were sent for their intentional death, to create an intentional false flag. I hope the relatives of these 35 people inside that P-8 Poseidon contact their Senators IMMEDIATELY and DEMAND an investigation. For sure John Bolton’s DNA will be all over this deadly intentional encounter. FASTER PLEASE BEFORE ITS TOO LATE FOR NEXT DEADLY ENCOUNTER.
1
I would never talk to someone as brutal and immoral as Trump in my personal time. I would rather die, my dignity intact. He poisons everything. The Ayatollahs are worse than Trump. But in their shoes I wouldn't talk to this indignity as well.
The Ayatollahs are not worse than Trump, just a different kind of evil. Evil is evil. They are fanatics. He is hollow, without human empathy.
Step 1. Fire Bolton
Step 2. Fire Pompeo
Step 3. Fire Pence
Step 4. Resign
1
I am at the point where I believe a deal must be made with the Republicans. Let them have the presidency for two more terms, the Supreme Court and all the Federal Judges. They can have it all, just remove Trump and his psychopaths. They win. Just please, we are at a point where the entire world is in danger, remove the mad man.
Trump deserves zero respect and deserves to be in prison. This is nothing like the Bay of Pigs so don't clutter this argument with more Trump like lies. He has NEVER taken responsibility for anything he does he takes "responsibility" when it suits him and will reject it when he's done with it because the truth has less than zero meaning with him he lives in his own personal hateful world which others seem to want to join. How sad it that?
1. Order Bolton to contact Odessa.
2. Announce a golf expedition to Buenos Aires.
3. Fly to Argentina.
4. Stay!
Trump called off a war Thursday because a Fox talking head told him to. Rupert Murdoch is now Emperor of the Earth.
Mr. Kristof, in stating the four actions that should be taken in regard to Iran, is assuming that there is actually a working brain in the Trump administration. Bolton is noted for his failure to even give the slightest nod to estimating the consequences of his calls to military action and apparently, Pompeo is his disciple.
So creating a crisis (ditching the nuclear agreement) and than defusing the escalation of the very same crisis is good governance and presidential? It’s just an extension of the 3 years reality TV were the President puts himself in the middle of everything with zero strategy except to cater to the Trump and Kushner families.
1
The dilemma of American policy on Iran - there are multiple options. Get ride of Iranian nuclear program first - Obama strategy. Get ride of Ayatollah first - Bolton strategy. Get ride of Nuclear bomb and Ayatollah first - Trump strategy. Obama had a plan based on his strategy, but Trump opted out of that plan. Now we do not have a agreed strategy, a plan and intellectual capability to act on a plan. The plan articulated in this piece is an alternative. But on my mind, first we need cool off time - let present sanctions work on economics and let internal forces play out. Protect the oil flow by third party naval forces like China or Russia or India to cool off the tension. Start the back channel negotiations to find the acceptable framework for agreement. Twenty first century problems can not be solved by military powers - military powers can only help to set the boundaries of negotiations.
President Trump has been applying maximum and tactical pressure on North Korea, China, Venezuela, Iran, Russia, NATO, Mexico, Canada, ISIS, etc. to achieve certain goals. In some of these cases he achieved what he wants, in others there is progress and none has failed so far. All these are high stake cases which need to be handled with strong arm, under high pressure, with clever tactics and with clear intensions. In all these cases, previous presidents either failed or made it worse. In Iran's case, Nicholas may think that the case was solved by Obama, but in fact he made it worse. Anybody with some sense would agree to take $150B plus $1B in cash to postpone the nuclear program for 10 years. This is what Iran did. They used the money to strengthen the economy and to pay terrorist outlets to spread havoc in Middle East. In the meantime, they continue to do secretly everything they want. This emboldened Iran, the reason why Iran is behaving aggressively now. This won't work under this President who can handle things under pressure and with different tactics. So, Nick, give Trump some more time, he just started.
2
Obama desperately wanted a deal with Iran. He allowed China to proliferate in the South China Sea and North Korea to threaten its neighbors. Trump is unwinding Obama’s Foreign Policy mess. The Democrats know its true but dont want to admit it. You cant play softball with these people and send them $150B and accept their word on anything especially promises to not develop Nukes.
@Alex E Iran was 2 months from a weapon when Obama struck the deal, during JPA 1 year +, so you do the math. Iran as a major regional problem is a direct consequence of your invasion of irag, which embolded iran and weakened you.
This is true Trump. Pressure and aggression capture most of his strategies. He shows total lack of understanding politics, history, our government or our friends and foes. Iran, Russia and North Korea have his number. But Iran may not want to play his game because there is too much to lose. Trump is foolishly tightening the pressure with no escape valve for Iran. While this may work, it has the potential to explode into war. This is a president of the USA?
2
Trump is not the one in control right now, he has been compromised by nearly everyone he has dealt with from the Russians , to the Saudis, to his own "loyal" cabinet. The kindest and most important thing we can do right now is impeach Trump, and shine light on all of his secrets, it may be a big relief for him. If we don't start impeachment and apply the brakes, then Bolton and Pompeo are going to get us in a war nobody wants. At this point I may reconsider if I want to vote for democrats in the next election if they don't do what is needed for the country.
3
Trump has met his match in the Ayatollah. It is the Ayatollah who will not back down.
In order for Trump to save face, he needs to go back to re-signing the Nuclear Treaty. Until then, I doubt the Iranians or our Allies will believe anything told to them by Trump, including that the Drone was in International Air space. Even the American public does not believe this.
4
And here we are wondering whether Trump's last minute cancellation of the strike was what he says it was and for the said reasons.
Good grief. Nothing he says can be taken at face value and that is one of the saddest aspects of his presidency. But the saddest one is that this guy has access to weapons of mass destruction. Can anyone be sure he wouldn't start a war just to keep himself in power and out of jail?
4
@Ronald Aaronson
Trump called off the strike because Putin told him to do so. No other reason.
"The conflict may start surgical, but it's likely to end that way" i wouldn't have said it better ,the whole region would be set up on fire. The drone that was shut down was a 10 years old model that was about to be remove from service ,so it serve as a scapegoat to provoke a reaction that would justify retaliation from the US.
2
As the civilian Commander in Chief of the United States military forces, the President must show the courage to countermand the wishes of his generals, admirals, his Secretary of State, and his national security advisors, if he thinks it's in the best interest of the nation whose safety he has been charged to uphold and defend.
If avoiding the death of innocents, by avoiding yet another senseless war, is the single moral code that President Trump adheres to for the remainder of what I hope to be single term in office...I can live with that.
Pushing back at the omnipresent Military Industrial Complex is difficult for any President, because war strategically contributes to the economy of most American States, including the Democratic strongholds of California (#1), Virginia (#2), Maryland (#4), Florida (#5), Washington (#6), and Connecticut (#7). So, when the American electorate is seemingly so very confused about why Democrats consistently share a warmongering posture with the Republicans, voting hand-in-hand with them on military expenditures and global confrontation, it can all be easily explained by studying the economic advantages of endless warring on their State's treasuries.
3
@Stone
"...the President must show the courage to countermand the wishes of his generals, admirals, his Secretary of State, and his national security advisors..."
I have faith in the military and I don't think the "wishes of his generals, admirals" coincide with the wishes of people like Pompeo and Bolton. These guys are itching for war. period.
@tom boyd You're right, but there's only one supreme Commander in Chief in the United States, and he MUST make the right decisions, despite receiving the wrong advice from the warmongers that surround him.
I DON'T have faith in our military, as they've failed the nation ever since Vietnam, fighting unwinnable wars, trying to capture the "hearts and minds" of people who don't want to be Americanized.
And, if you peruse the rosters of the Military Industrial Complex, you'll find a revolving door of retired military officers who are being paid to push the latest weapons of mass destruction upon the American taxpayer, and to global purchasers, like Saudi Arabia.
2
An excellent column by Mr Kristof as far as it goes, but on the principle never letting a crisis go to waste, I suggest one more action. The Congress should introduce an amendment to the Constitution to curb the war-making powers of the president. A string of disastrous wars since 1950 demands this, now more than ever with a dangerous, nuclear-armed, incompetent in the White House. This action would restore the Founders' principle of checks and balances and restore war-making powers in the hands of Congress. The list of presidents who took the US to war unnecessarily and unsuccessfully is a long one, and an institutional change is the best way to save the world from an obliterating nuclear catastrophe.
4
My question is how many Americans share this opinion, 20-25%? The lack of understanding of just how dangerous Trump is, not just for the world, but for Americans, is what truly worries me!
5
"Trump’s maximum pressure has been a failure in country after country"ץ Really and your 4 steps is the alternative? Trump's maximum economic pressure is the only way to convince Iran. Venezuela, China and North Korea to change their policies but the President must keep and increase the pressure otherwise it will not work. "secret talks with Iran to patch back together the nuclear agreement"? That is all the Iranian really want. The only way to succeed is to keep the economic pressure on all 4 nations. All 4 believe that the 2020 elections work for them and that President Trump, because of the election, will blink first
@Shlomo Greenberg The best possible outcome for those who don't want things to go well, is Trump getting reelected 2020. Why? Because he weakens the US standing in the world and are creating enemies everywhere. Soon Israel, UAE and Saudi Arabia will be her only allies, which i am sorry to say, is not where the US should aim to be.
You forgot the most important step:
0. Get rid of John Bolton.
If memory serves, North Korea was finally coming to the negotiating table over its nuclear program in the last days of the Clinton administration, who left it to the incoming Bush administration to pick up the ball. Instead they brought in John Bolton, whose hawkish jingoism led to North Korea exploding its first nuke within the year. Way to go, John.
Remember, he *still* thinks the Iraq war was a good idea.
God only knows how much harm we're going to inflict on ourselves with Bolton at the helm of our national security.
6
Someday we may learn that Russians monitoring our air traffic along the Iran coast noted intrusions in Iranian airspace and advised the Pentagon this could really burn Trump. Tactically they could have allowed us to make fools of ourselves but protecting his image was a valuable strategic move. Were the intrusions deliberate efforts to provoke the Iranians or the same kind of navigational errors that have plagued the military previously? If President Trump wants to protect his interest against those looking to encourage conflict he should sack John Bolton as too prone to error and offer the Secretary of State the choice of silence or a postmastership in Kansas.
We don't need a war for the sake of the Saudis. Years ago I thought the Saudis and Iranians would cut a deal to divide the Middle East between them, telling the Americans to get out and stay out. It may still happen.
However, if Iran can't stay out of Syria, continues to support Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, who are a minority in Yemen, and if they refuse to re-negotiate, secretly or otherwise, what do you suggest, Mr. Kristof?
We know the Iranian government and much of their population are at odds with each other. There's been widespread hunger going on for years, even after President Obama paid them billions. Yes, sanctions have made it worse. Sadly, trying to force a government to change, or resign, will hurt the civilian population. Can you honestly suggest a different route? Do you believe that leaving the Ayatollah lead government intact, to continue pursuing terrorism and controlling other countries for their purposes, won't get worse over time? It's not only their pursuit of a nuke, but their increased support for terrorism and meddling (including in Venezuela, thru Hezbollah operatives) which cannot be ignored.
Trump may not be good a playing chicken, but our foreign policy likewise cannot be to bury our heads in the sand and "let them all figure it out themselves". That was precisely American policy during WWII, up until Pearl Harbor.
In retrospect, was that right?
2
So possibly the drone intruded into Iranian airspace?
The President is Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. If it was accidental, the armed forces should have reported their mistake up through the chain of command and the Iranians advised. If it was a deliberate provocation designed to ignite a war, did the President order an incursion into Iranian territorial waters at a time of crisis?
Or are there rogue operators in the US armed forces and Pentagon trying to start a war?
@herne
Have you ever flown an airplane through tightly controlled air space--say, Washington D.C.? Then you know how easy it is to miss it by a meter or two.
Trump has not ordered carpet bombing of Iran with A bombs murdering 80 million people. Trump likes simple solutions like that. After all, if Iran no longer existed, Iran would not be a problem.
Dropping A bombs is more likely than Trump ever saying about his own behavior "I'm sorry".
2
I share Mr. Kristof's continuing anxieties about the behavior of this President, notwithstanding his obviously calculated theatrics to avert war--for the moment. It simply cannot be gainsaid, however, that he deliberately saturated his administration with an equally calculated and absurdly cruel effort to destroy the economic basis of Iranian society and government. That effort continues, without any legitimate explanation of it that goes to the whole truth about what we did to drive the Iranians to this pass--especially after Republican idiocy utterly refused any modus vivendi with the Iranians after 9/11, as they explicitly and unequivocally offered us. The deliberate trashing of Barack Obama's brilliant nuclear diplomacy was, of course, another nail in the coffin of reason and truth, all of it to promote nothing but this President's evil passion for self-glorification. The American people, and what is left of serious credibility among our mainstream religious leadership, must, MUST, come to terms with the truth, which is that nothing in the traditions or beliefs of Judaism and Christianity permit the kind of reckless insanity towards predominantly Muslim nations that animates the demagogic policy of this White House and its minions. Everything Mr. Trump does to move back from the brink only confirms the folly of what he did to bring us there. God have mercy upon us as this dark drama unfolds--into the light, let us hope.
2
The drone may have been over Iranian territory and then left that location and by the time it was shot down, was over international space. There is also a question of how far a country's borders extend into the ocean - different countries recognize different distances and perhaps the U.S. and Iran disagree on this. Since Trump is always lying, it is difficult to believe anything coming out of his administration....
6
"I suggest this principle of foreign policy: Hawks who were completely wrong about Iraq should refrain from jingoism about Iran."
I also suggest one better: Congress should pass a law forbidding any public official involved with starting a war without provocation that ends in abject failutre to ever serve in government again.
Also, I know your heart is in the right place Nicholas Kristof, but do you really think that Donald Trump would disengage from his alliance with the Saudis and the Emiratis? He has huge financial interests there--personal as well as governmental. He loves to brag about how much weaponry they buy from us--never mind that we have to service these accounts, making us complicit in whatever ugly wars they decide to fight, like Yemen.
People warned about Donald Trump's financial entanglements with foreign countries driving his foreign policy. Forget Russia. Exhibit A, par excellence, is Saudi Arabia and all the other Middle Eastern countries that have an animus towards Iran, their enemy that they expect us to "help" them fight.
3
The policy of putting people in hunger, as it was in past, far in the past wars where besiege was just that... to cut food and water around a city... Today this is considered universally abhorrent and disgraceful (just look at Myanmar). But the U.S. has followed already this policy shamelessly, and Trump of course is no exemption. No boots on the ground resources, only indiscriminate carpet bombing killing hundred thousand civilians, negligible because coloured, right? And this is how it looks like the coming 'solution' here...
4
A policy we Americans collectively need to pursue is one predicated on not breeding terrorists. It seems we simply can't help ourselves, we oppress a people and change destinies for the worse every generation. War against Iran would be nothing short of rolling out the welcome wagon into which energetic terrorist recruits will jump. They'd be full of righteous vindictive vitriol for the country, and its people, which seems to believe toying with destinies, bleeding hope and robbing people of a future, the type we demand for ourselves, isn't indicitive of self righteous lunacy run amok. If we make war with Iran, perhaps it's time for the vaunted United States of America to be slayed like Goliath to the underdog David.
3
The presumptuousness and arrogance in some quarters of the US media is nauseating. Imagine if Iran shot down a US airliner -- the response would be immediate, disproportionate in the extreme, and predictable. I'd almost welcome China as a superpower to blunt US hegemony and imperialism but of course, the United States of Freedom would sooner see the world burn than allow its dominance to be threatened.
8
Why do all of you commenters, including Kristof, believe Trump when he says he authorized, then countermanded, the strike?
9
@Nick Kristof, you left out:
5. Fire armchair War Hawks, Pompeo and Bolton and rid the NSC of all Bolton appointees. And maybe give Hannity a new phone number to call, the White House main number?
2
If there is one determining factor in Trump's ENTIRE life is that he never, and I mean never, learns from his mistakes. It's not just the six bankruptcies, it's that he sees himself as the smartest guy in the world and everyone else is a chump for him to take advantage of. Whether was Trump U, or his casinos or his outrageous prices at his hotels and resorts ("Trump Water" at $25 a bottle?), or the USFL, we're all suckers and as WC Fields put it: Never give a sucker an even break.
We've now all seen his negotiating tactics: Straight out of The Godfather "I'll make him an offer he can't refuse." Rather than a hit man, he sued everyone he ever worked with. So with him it's either take this deal that's horrible for you and great for him, or he'll make the next 5 to 10 years of your life a living hell with lawsuits.
It only sort of worked in his private life, but in politics and foreign relations it doesn't work at all. And you don't make peace with your enemies by brinkmanship.
Iran is not Iraq--and we messed up there very badly. It's much bigger, has more people, and has a dedicated, powerful military. It is also paranoid (with good reason) about its neighbors, being a Shi'ia nation virtually surrounded by Sunni nations that are hostile to it. And while it no longer borders the USSR, its northern border is with former soviet republics.
Trump understands none of this & I don't think Bolton or Pompeo do either. Nor will they ever.
7
Concocted and loaded.
Trump needed a dramatic twist to his episodic TV star reelection week. This Iran provocation was likely a planned media event. Last minute and impulsive but it was another distraction plot line in the Trump crosshairs.
Next months episodes will be the Trump's July 4th, rally extravaganza. That takes precedence. It's more "proportionate". It's all Trump really cares about right now.
Hot damn. Tucker Carlson saves the day. Fox is Trump's major asset. They need to win for him to win.
Trump is far more scared of Fox hosts abandoning him than he is of Pelosi et al. He will take his advice from Hannity, Carson, and crew more than any intelligence agency. It's all about image control.
4
A bully only knows one way of doing things: maximum, relentless pressure. POTUS is a bully and fancies himself as a mob boss, trusting that all will fear his words and his wrath. That may work when strong-arming local officials in order to build a condo, or threatening reporters with arrest for taking pictures, but against real power and real threat, he will fail.
Your suggestions are excellent; let's hope the adults in the room go for them, though I doubt that Bolton or Pompeo will be that astute.
This administration and its unhinged leader would all be funny if they were not so dangerous...this is a key moment in this junk show and I pray they don't screw it up any further.
2
Since President Trump listens to his warmongers (Bolton, Pompeo and advisers like his Fox News press) he won't reduce the risk of war with Iran. He didn't strike last night, but snakes strike when they will.
Trump warned the American people in January, 2016 that snakes are immigrants coming to our country, and he quoted in his xenophobic fearmongering from the 1968 song that had nothing to do with immigrants -- "You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in".
The snake we know will let loose ICE to arrest undocumented immigrants in 10 major American cities tomorrow. Unless he pulls back from his frightening immigration plans as he did from striking Iran last night. We are in crisis.
1
Why are Bolton and Pompeo so desperate to become mass murderers? Why are they so hell-bent into destabilizing the entire planet, and possibly leading us into a nuclear conflict? Don't they care about human life, peace and prosperity? Have they actually ever SEEN the effects of a war on the people who are caught in the middle of it?
Is there any way congress can act to stop these two obviously deranged maniacs before they cause some real damage?
2
To quite Kanye, they "got a big ego"! They're so full of themselves and their belief that what they believe is the right thing to do, that they are unable to see the likely results of their actions.
What Iran is doing is trying to prove, and succeeding to a certain extent, that Trump is nothing but a schoolyard bully. So far Trump is losing. He has the support any candidate would kill for. He has the economy, he somehow keeps beating everything that is being thrown at him by people who are throwing it 24 hours a day, and he's got a babe for a wife. If he would get off twitter he would probably be the most popular president of all time. But he's there every day reminding us of what a bull in the china shop he really is. On Iran, he'd better nut up and at least come up with a proportional response. Talk is cheap, threats mean nothing and Iran is exposing him to his supporters like myself as nothing but a bully. He really, really needs to reverse my thought process about him right now
Rule #1 ...whatever John Bolton recommends....don’t!
3
Do the opposite!
In his first two years as president, Trump has mostly been 'playing' President on TV, watching TV, playing golf, and running for reelection. He is clearly the most unqualified person to ever hold the office, and lacks the temperament, maturity, and intelligence the position requires. Now, solely because of his belligerence and bluster, he's backed himself into many difficult corners. It's difficult to imagine any of these situations ending well for America. And still, republicans sit on the sidelines saying and doing nothing to protect our country.
4
Love your advice to the American president. Now I will add a very humble (although unrequested) advice to the Iranians: The US and Iran have had a long history together. At some points, it was a love story, at a few crucial others, it took a wrong turn. As difficult as it may sound, better not to be rigid and hold on to past grievances, otherwise the past, instead of informing the future, would dictate it and paint it in its colors. A new generation of Americans and Iranians are ready for a fresh start. Listen to Trump’s base and opponents alike. Very few are excited about a hawkish stand on the Middle East. Most agree the US has paid a high cost for the past misadventures and may be better off focusing on internal or more pressing international issues. Same should hold for Iran. Iranians for the most part are not excited about the misadventures of Iran and its so-called proxies in the Middle East. Time for Iran to focus on building a better economy for Iranians. Time for Iran to normalize its relationship with the rest of the world. You can’t chant death to a neighboring government and simultaneously pursue a nuclear program. It’s just common sense, and a 101 comms lesson. A lot of the problems Iran is facing are pure consequences of miscommunication and projecting an exaggerated adversarial image to the world while there is no real adversarial intentions beneath the surface. They say the darkest hours of the night may be the closest to dawn. I hope this will hold true here.
4
Very good advice!
Nobody likes to go to the brink, but given the situation that Bolton placed us is, is reneging on a deal made by the previous administration, all is not necessarily lost on this encounter.
Iran sees that we can act reasonably in a defensive posture, perhaps.
I don't see it as likely that Trump's advisors are going to accept the Nuclear agreement precisely as the Obama admin made it, but if Trump can get just one or two more concessions in putting the deal back together, I think the point will have been made.
Some people have more difficulty being patient in such circumstances than others. But now is the time to back off in this new defensive posture, make a couple of new demands, and get back to a new stasis.
If Trump was to pull US support for the war in Yemen and reduce arm shipments to the Saudis, he could probably get the couple of new concessions from Iran. Then we just have to wait as long as it takes for situations to change and new solutions to emerge.
4
Trump had wanted to be seen as unpredictable. But time after time he’s pushed an issue to the brink only to retreat at the last moment. He is now precisely what he wanted to avoid.
11
I watched Trump’s comments about his decision to call off the air strike ten minutes before it was to be put into action. All I could think of was that he was channeling pretend president Alan Shepherd.
3
@Not Again
Jeez......I thought the same thing!!
Maximum pressure, as Kristof describes, is a failed strategy, a dangerous one too. Yet the failed strategy has not affected Trump's overall approval and certainly not among Republicans. It's how he stands up to foreign nations to win concessions, or so goes the script. He is incapable of coherent strategy. Aides tell us he is actually incapable of considering any thought for more than the shortest time. Serious and time-consuming discussion about strategy is beyond his capability. Instead, he commands our attention continuously while being chaotic, unpredictable and dangerous. He provides a patriotic excitement, disingenuous, but appealing to his voters, who, like him, are unaware of a need for strategy based on knowledge, arrived at with care.
12
@blgreenie: It seems he is allowed to run the US as he ran (and probably still runs) his business and that is, get up and after a few tweets, insults or policies, doesn't matter, see what the day brings. "Let's see what the day brings" is his motto and we are told it was always so.
He told us who he was. And some of us really like it. I hope we get to 2020 intact, inch by inch, without catastrophe and we who don't like it, can vote him out.
And then he can wonder what each day will bring from his prison cell. That would please many of us.
15
We do not need to and should not clarify the location of the drone that was shot down, because the United States has suffered enough embarrassment. Donald Trump has less credibility and is less believable and trustworthy than the leaders of Iran. You can't do a deal with Trump, because he tears up deals he doesn't like. He is not a man of his word. World opinion is on the side of Iran right now. We are suffering the geostrategic consequences of having a president who is void of moral virtue.
26
Absolutely the wrong approach. We definitely need to know what Trump and his minions knew about where the drone was.
What did they know and when they know it?
Was it deliberately sent over Iranian air space in the hopes of instigating a conflict?
Was this another Gulf of Tonkin situation in which an incident occurred but was willfully and negligently blown out of proportion as an excuse to go to war?
Then, what about the tanker attack?
The people on board said they were attacked aerially, meaning the claim of limpet mines could have been fabricated, too!
We need the facts — and they need to be made public — so that the country and the world can learn what the Truth is and have an unequivocal example of what a clear and present danger Trump and his minions are to world peace and our national security.
It was pretty Dr. Strangelove funny to see Trump and Pompeo citing U.S. intelligence sources as *proof* of the tanker attack and the drone shoot down, when they completely dismiss the very same agencies' findings that Russia interfered in our election in order to get Trump elected,
@Phillip Brantley: A lot of American opinion is on the side of Iran right now. And, yes, we do need to know the truth. We absolutely demand to know the truth about the location of that drone!
1
What is most interesting from this episode is that we do in fact have a PRESIDENT. Those who mock him and condemn him can do so but he has shown he is neither a dolt nor a careless man. He acted like JFK in turning back war (as JFK did during the Bay of Pigs story). This denying global warming stuff is still disgusting as are other billionaire policies. But the fact is the man stepped up to the plate and took responsibility. He deserves some respect.
27
He provoked a crisis over his visceral hatred of all things Obama, and for ratings, and then deserves respect because he chose not to worsen the crisis of his own creation?
No.
He made the right call in not acting to make things worse, but the larger mess is unquestionably of his making. At best, we are in E for effort territory, but it’s quite certainly still a failing grade.
205
@Richard We have a president who lies. Is he lying about the location of the drone? he certainly seems to by lying about the last minute call off process. citizens of our country cannot trust his words, why would any other country trust them? that is the justified fear many of us have..it is a perfect storm for mistaken shots to start a war.
160
@Richard: Who believes he really stopped this at the 'very last minute' ? He made the decision not to go ahead much earlier, but he's dramatizing it for the audience of his ongoing reality show.
162
“A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual doom.” Martin Luther King .
Misperception, misconceptions and lies fed to us by military minded types tell us the war machine is the answer to the world out there. A belief system that would convince us that we are separate from others and creates the illusion of special unique grouping of who we are - an ideology that differences are significant and make a difference.
We can deny the denial of truth that we are all in this together. The lie is that we are all fundamentally different - based upon belief in our judgements of special love or special hate. To be dependent upon the strength of a military thought system than the miracle of life itself. People , substances, objects - war destroys all. War traps us into an existence of defensiveness - the more we attack the more we have to defend. We take away our own freedoms with defense spending, homeland security and wasting our time in airport lines. Security consciousness and military thinking is a failure all around. Rather than building walls with ever greater defensiveness, the work should be toward making military consciousness and military dispensable rather than making it a part of us. If we are to reach a point where we are beyond the military we need a practice of peace.
6
Nicholas, Oh how I so wish you were in charge!!
8
Giving Trump credit for any of his decisions is, at best, ludicrous and, at worst, dangerous. As usual, he created a situation, then stepped in at the last minute to "save the day." Surely, after two and a half years of watching him in action, it's obvious that he cares about no one but himself and his own aggrandizement. Approval to a narcissistic sociopath gives him the confidence to make even more impulsive, irrational choices in the future. Choices that could involve the push of a button. So let's not make the mistake of giving him an attaboy for this latest stunt.
28
His are not “decisions“. They are “self-aggrandizing impulses”.
1
@Mark I believe that's exactly what I said...."impulsive, irrational choices."
When did he do what he should do?
5
DJT is too weak to return to the nuclear deal.
It would be a public admission that he was wrong and President Obama was right.
I am not saying a return to the original deal is wrong. It is the right thing to do.... which is precisely why DJT will not do it!
Morally corrupt narcissists do not do what is right, they do whatever satisfies their affliction!
Vote 2020.
15
Really time to extricate ourselves from the mideast in total. This is & has been a fools game. The Boltons et al of the US have a clear record of massive failure in the foreign policy arena and should be shelved to the dust bin of history.
3
Saudi Arabia and Iran are enemies.
The Trumps want Saudi money.
A U.S. war with Iran would pay for the Saudi's desired war with American military might, taxpayer dollars and American lives.
And the Trumps laugh all the way to the bank.
376
@Panthiest
You are spot on. But we shouldn't forget that for more than two centuries Persia/Iran has never invaded a foreign country. The only exception was a small island in the Straight of Hormuz that used to belong to the Persian Empire but had become a British Protectorate in the late 1800s and early 1900s.
Contrary to Persia/Iran, the US has invaded quite a few countries since the end of WWII.
18
@Panthiest
So, the US is an unpaid mercenary for the Saudis.
10
@Panthiest And Saudi Arabia and UAE got more troops in the area and further sanction increasing their bottom line. Don’t forget UAE has A LOT invested in Trump/Kushner. This was a business decision. We are the ONLY country without a solid grasp of history. This business ploy to make Iran’s enemies richer will get Americans killed somewhere at some point.
7
Great piece, but you forgot the most important one:
#1. Fire Bolton. He lied to get us into Iraq, and he seems determined to start another crazy war with Iran. He did not learn anything from his previous mistakes. He has to be stopped. Pompeo, too.
21
Trump never get over the bullying attitude of teenage.
4
Good column...big unanswered question.
Why have the uber-hawks in various Republican administrations been pounding the drums of war against Iran for decades now? What is the hidden or unexplained motive?
During Bush the Second, we had armies on both sides of Iran and Darth Cheney was pushing to move them together by starting a war with Iran. (Hey, as long as you are in the neighborhood, why not start a war?) He failed, apparently even G.W. Bush wasn't that pliable.
Iran is a bad actor, to be sure. They most likely fueled the insurgency in Iraq during that war, were probably responsible for the deaths of hundreds of America soldiers and thousands of Iraqi civilians. Who was behind the Mosque bombing that really set off the insurgency? Who supplied the materials for the thousands of IEDs?
BUT...we know this: regime change DOES NOT WORK. It only leads to more chaos, more violence, less democracy and more deaths.
Those who crave war inside various administrations know we have to put up with big threats like Russia or China but they want to whack the smaller threats and make them disappear. When has this ever worked?
We've got all this military power bought and paid for and, as Trump said about nuclear weapons, why do we have them if we can't use them? Their existence creates a powerful urge to employ them, even if it always backfires.
5
That would be one hell of a backfire.
1
the entire Iranian issue is a distraction to keep people from talking about Trump's collaboration with Russia, and it is working.
10
Commander-in-Chief Trump says he is a graduate of The New York Military Academy. While there and later, he appears never to have encountered the notion that, in the current usage, "kinetic action" kills and cripples people and destroys property. If this entire concoction is not a WMD "wag the dog" story, his use of the word "proportionality' has surely never fallen from his lips in his lifetime.
10
A couple of thoughts:
Mr. Kristof's suggestions would require that we have a President capable of thought and consideration. His actions to date indicate, that is not the case.
There is another problem with going to war with Iran: We don't win our wars. Since WWII we have not won any war. We either fought to a tie, or walked away or are still there after more than a decade, accomplishing nothing. Oops!! I forgot Grenada, we kicked the stuffing out of a small Caribbean nation. This, of course begs the question, why are we paying for one of the biggest and probably most expensive military's in the world?
11
Trump’s Situation Room hawks set him upon a “fool’s errand.”
He could see the bad outcome and wisely sided with his “skeptics.”
Blithely ordering the taking of lives when there are no personal consequences for his ‘advisors’ illustrates the epitome of their vanity. A vice we regularly see in combative governance.
It would be nice to know why our media is focusing on Trump’s action to stop the attack when they should focus on why we are over in the Gulf threatening Iran in the first place. Shame that the media is trying to make Trump look weak for this so he is sure to go ahead next time.
Crippling sanctions are an act of war. It appears we are trying to collapse Iran’s economy. Is Trump concerned how many Iranian children will die from lack of food or medicine because of US sanctions?
9
@e.s.: Was Secretary of State Madeleine Albright under Clinton concerned about starving Iraqi children which caused many deaths? She said 'it was worth it'. Americans don't care about children who aren't white and American. Look at what's happening on the border right now.
We don't care.
3
Trump has zero credibility. His word isn't worth the air it takes to speak it. His base may believe him. But his lack of success at the negotiating table proves the rest of the world realizes they have no reason to trust anything he says.
18
Trump is a complete failure on the world scene and this is just the most recent in a series of failures that began with his willingness to take dirt from Russia and his passion for covering up whatever happened in Russia on the trip he claimed he didn’t make.
That lie was proven by air traffic records - whatever happened there was something Trump felt compelled to cover up.
The lack of respect for Trump abroad is indicated by his dismal approval ratings abroad, unprecedented for any American president. He went to Ireland, where his disapproval is 82 percent, his approval only 12 percent.
He flew directly by helicopter from Shannon airport to his golf course and did not set foot outside that compound, holding up there until departure, again by helicopter. He gave the Irish PM a choice of meeting at the Trump golf course or nowhere. Told that would violate protocol, he finally agreed to a brief meeting at Shannon airport.
No dignity, no class. There were demonstrations across Ireland, largely ignored here. We were embarassed by his shoddy family excess on the British State visit and by the banners and billboards that compared Trump’s dismal approval rate its in Britain, in the low 20s, compared to Obama’s 72 percent positive.
This man hurts this country and damages our reputation daily.
Msny Americans close their eyes and pretend that he has restored our national reputation from their fantasy that Obama was not respected when he was.
Trump is just bad news daily.
23
The problem with Trump's presidency is pretty simple. When he was on 'The Apprentice ' the series's writers were careful to script each episode to make Trump look like he actually was smart, knew what he was doing and flattered him as a successful businessman. Those were very clever writers,
even though the way they presented Trump was pure fiction.
As president, no one can give Trump a script assuring he looks good. In fact, he is now writing his own script (usually on Twitter) and the reviews are thumbs down.
Trump's job change from a reality TV boss to president proves the adage, truth is stranger than fiction...at least in fiction Trump was not the fool truth reveals he actually is. And unlike fiction truth remains truth no matter how many lies he tells.
8
@JABarry: The other important detail regarding The Apprentice is that it would take 300 hours of videotape to get one 42 minute episode. Many, many people would look wonderful if we all had a producer and good editor now wouldn't we?
It took me a long time to understand this. I never ever saw even one episode of his reality TV show but millions watched for many years! They absolutely bought into the myth that Mark Burnett created. Trump created nothing. And now we know that all he is is a destroyer, not a builder and certainly he is incapable of making good deals on behalf of our country.
1
This is what happens when Jared Kushner, Michael Bolton, and Mike Pompeo are put in charge of Middle Eastern foreign policy. Kushner is possibly up to his ears in various conflict of interest financial entanglements such as one arranged by a thuggery nation that dismembered a journalist (why is he so afraid of denouncing this act?). The other two hawkish individuals unable to grasp what it means fully to be a man — mirror reflections of their boss, Donald.
6
Of course he is not going to start an open war with Iran. Another expensive foreign war is exactly what he promised his voters wouldn't happen under his watch. "American carnage ends here" is what he said in his inauguration speech, remember? I can't imagine the Iranians would want to pick a full-on fight against the world's strongest military power either.
It's somebody completely different who wants this conflict to happen, that's obvious. It is the job of every investigative journalist on the planet to dig out who they are, and expose those wretched, evil creatures. We need light shed on this, we need it badly. Comments fields everywhere are already rife with speculation, some of it quite nasty. Nothing good can come out of the public being left in the dark, where they assign blame according to old prejudices.
I desperately want to know what is going on.
4
Trumputin's only consistent "policy" since grabbing office, has been to undo everything Obama has done. Rolling back environmental regulations, pulling out of the Paris Climate Accords, quitting the multilateral Iran nuclear deal are the most prominent of his contrarian actions. So much hate!
So here's my solution to the present crisis. Obama needs to step up and make a speech how we must bomb Iran immediately. Trumputin will recoil and do the opposite, negoatiate for a new nuclear and oveall peace agreement.
To add even more incentive, Pelosi should get the House to vote on a resolution supporting war with Iran. Trumputin will then have no choice but to hold out an olive branch to the ayatollahs.
3
When Trump seeks peace with Russia or North Korea, the "resistance" screams and cries that he is a traitor. When Trump declares he wants to pull our troops out of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, they criticize him for turning his back on our allies in those parts of the world. Now, Trump publicly admits that he called off an attack on Iran because he didn't want to kill 150 Iranians over a lost drone (that may very well have been in Iranian airspace), and he is criticized for being a warmonger. The reality is that with Obama as president we were consistently involved in failed military interventions in the middle east, and Trump has consistently avoided conflicts, despite his brash and often irresponsible language. The anti-Trump momevement has lost any shot at legitimacy due to insisting Trump is responsible for all bad in the world, and showing no ability to accept his positive attributes.
2
@LV Nobody believes anything he says, including what he "publicly admits" about this incident.
2
Trump was taught, "Always Bully; Never Cooperate". It's always worked. Until now.
Avoiding a nuclear exchange during the cold war led to the development of the "tit for tat" strategy - respond as your opponent does; and to avoid escalation into extinction, sometimes cooperate even in the face of provocation. It eventually led to the missile and nuclear disarmament treaties.
Trump's "Not proportional" reason for calling off airstrikes is the first sign he's learned this lesson, and might move toward de-escalation, if not cooperation. That's surely not by game theory analysis.
It doesn't matter. Even germs have evolved cooperation.
Nick's suggestions lead that way as well.
I've no need to repeat how this is all a result of the buffoon-who-would-be-king. Also, it physically pains me to seem to agree with the likes of Bolton, Pompeo, and Cotton. The fact remains, however, that Iran shot down an American plane.
That in itself is an act of war. Now we can either 1) rain fire-and-brimstone upon Iran and upon Hezbollah, their lapdog; 2) we can take out a number of missile launchers and trash a couple of their attack speedboat bases as an overt suggestion that they behave (and a private suggestion that a violent response by them may end up with Qom being carpet-bombed); 3) we can cry, bluster, and do nothing (Trump's current approach … stay tuned).
In 1988, after an Iranian mine nearly sank the USS Samuel B. Roberts (no loss of life), the US launched Operation Praying Mantis and destroyed a good part of Iran's Navy. Until now the Iranians haven't dared to overtly attack us.
I'm not anxious to see anyone's family member lose their life. I realize however that the world being what it is there are occasions that demand us to be strong and not cowardly. A strong raid on Revolutionary Guard assets, with a side note that any "asymmetric attacks" on US forces will result in catastrophic results in Iran, or on Hezbollah or Houthi proxies.
As for civilians efforts should be made to minimize their casualties. As for the Guard, well that's just too bad, and the same goes for their support personnel "civilians."
1
@ Don Mallen, it was a drone and not a plane. Though very expensive no lives were lost. Also who knows, this drone may have been in their airspace and if so they had every right to shoot it down just as we would have done if any Iranian aircraft had strayed intentionally or unintentionally into our airspace.
With all that’s gone on in the Middle East over the past years, one would think that People would be very careful before beating the drums of war.
8
@Don Mallen If that drone was in their airspace they had every right to shoot it down. At this point, Iran is a lot more credible than Trump.
Trump is not capable of successfully negotiating with any country, let alone Iran. All he know is what worked for him in real estate--bullying, relentless pressuring, and threats. He is a five-year-old in an adult body and is fully unfit for the role of president. Surrounded by hawks like Pompeo and Bolton, it's hard to see any real viable solution. We have a president who gets his information from Fox News, and whose only real goal is to appear tough and please his base. None of these make for good diplomacy or hopeful outcomes. We should all be worried.
10
We all recognize that Trump is a narcissist with very little knowledge of or interest in foreign affairs or foreign policy. That was clear before the election, and somehow this did not bother those who wanted to “send a message”.
It important to realize that Trump also is, and always has been, a cruel sadist. Long before he stumbled into the Oval Office, he had a long history of humiliating those who worked for him or anyone who challenged him. Now we see the pattern as president...families separated at the border, humanitarian crises around the world ignored or made into cruel fodder for jokes (paper towels tossed to the people of Puerto Rico), repeated public humiliation of those short sighted megalomaniacs willing to work in his administration.
And now this carries us to the brink of another endless war. trump has no interest in or understanding of the people and politics of the Middle East. He set out to humiliate the Iranian government (and, in his twisted mind, the Obama administration) by tearing up a functioning nuclear deal and applying sanctions to further harm the people of Iran. It is only his disinterest in foreign affairs, and perhaps some dim understanding that war might harm his re-election results, that is keeping him from puffing out his chest and siding with chicken hawks such as Bolton.
Honestly, if we elect this buffoon to another term, I think there is little hope for our republic...and, sadly, for the planet (or at least the human race as we know it)
4
They don't care money is their God and this includes the religious right who exploit God for their own monetary means because with money comes power.
5
Mr. Kristof, I very much like your comments, but please define and tell what exactly are the Iranian provocations as you call them. I don't know of one. They did not do a regime change in the USA, or have battleships in US waters or drones over the USA, neither do they enforce economical warfare against the USA. So what exactly have the Iranian people done to the USA other than kick the brutal Shah, a brutal dictator, courtesy of the US, out of their country?
Maybe the Iranian people don't like their government, I don't like mine either, neither do the people in Egypt who live under ISIS, also our boy. The US has become the global bully, let us call it what it is.
7
@ARL. Boy, are you spot,on with your comments. Trump started this whole mess and I seriously doubt that he has the brain power to removed himself from his current box. God save us from Bolton and Pompeo!
1
This is how fascism works: first, dehumanize the "others." The dehumanization of Iran and Islam didn't begin with Trump, but he has elevated it much more than anyone else, using it to garner support. North Korea has nukes and is a much greater danger to the US, but that nation hasn't been dehumanized to the extent Iran has, so attacking NK would be a much tougher sell. Besides, their leader is Trump's buddy. Saudi Arabia has committed far worse atrocities than Iran, was the source of nearly all the 9/11 hijackers, and contributes at least as much as Iran to regional instability. But of course they're also our "allies," so we side with them.
Trump has been dehumanizing "Mexicans and illegal aliens" for years now, and look what's happening these days on our southern border: humans, including small children, being kept in cages, in unsanitary conditions, and very little outcry. See, once the "others" have been dehumanized, you can justify all manner of ugliness. Saddam was the "Butcher of Baghdad" so it was OK to not only depose him but invade his country and kill thousands of his countrymen, with absolutely no provocation on Iraq's part.
And now we have Iran, and the pattern repeating itself. Once the ground work has been laid and millions of Americans see Iran as evil and a threat to US interests, then America can do as it chooses and few will object. That's how fascism works, and sadly, it's working like a charm.
This "delay" is window dressing. The attack is inevitable.
8
After reading a few of the posts it's easy to understand why so much of our nation is confused and confusing. They read the column and came to highly erroneous conclusions. How does that work? You'd like to think Times readers are a cut or two above the average or worse crowd. Yet it's easy to see how if simplistic undereducated people get bad information and believe it how we end up with nut cases like Trump in office.
Good suggestions. But he should start by firing Bolton. And Bolton should be happy that we are not (yet) a fully authoritarian state like North Korea. There, the supreme leader would start by firing a canon on Bolton....
2
Amen to all of your points, but especially #3.
I'm no fan of mullahs but I will personally resist any foreign invader. I live in Tabriz people here resisted Russian Empire in the last centuries ,Russians surrounded the city for months, but people eat grass but didn't surrender. So I have to live up to their heritage.
3
@Tohid Noraein: And didn't everyone in Iran suffer for many years during the Iraq-Iran war? This man Trump knows nothing about who you all are. He's a sin against the world.
1
Excellent opinion article.
Here are a few other ideas:
Since the US and Iran are already in a very precarious adversarial position, perhaps let the UN intervene? The two ships that were allegedly attacked by Iran flew Japanese and Norwegian flags. Why not let Japan and Norway defend their own interests?
Learn from the past. The US is always hellbent on 'regime change' with little thought as to what kind of change might or might not be acceptable to the actual citizenry of those countries. How many countries, whose regime's have been changed, are in complete chaos now? The world is far more unstable because of these changes. Iraq...Libya...Syria... One could say that the majority of the asylum seekers and migrants to the US, come from Latin American countries where the US 'encouraged' (read: caused) regime changes.
If Israel is threatened by Iran, then let Israel deal with Iran. I have no doubt that the IDF is up to the task. And Israel has nukes of its own. Perhaps if Israel were forced to face this enemy themselves, they might me more motivated to reduce the many fronts that threaten it, by coming up with a negotiated settlement that is good for Palestinians as well as Jews.
The US is still involved in Afghanistan - its longest ever war - as well as Iraq. Perhaps it can try to solve these messes before it starts another?
2
How about we get beyond equating ruthless violence and killing with strength in leadership? Any thug, or ape, can be violent and kill in the effort to appear strong. Maybe we should equate strength with resisting our primal instincts, and choosing not to kill. What a radical concept!
I'm not saying force is never warranted, but we should not equate strong leadership with the unrestrained use of it.
3
“Trump pursued aggressive tactics without any obvious strategy.” Wrong. His strategy was transparent, vacuous and useless, his default strategy. You have said that in your kind way. Trump, a woodchuck surveilling dandelions for lunch, gets down to his adversary’s level and becomes vacuous and useless. He does this even with non-adversaries. Seeing France’s and North Korea’s military parades, Trump put the concept into his toolbox. Rome did parades. France added over-flights. Today Rome and Paris are pleasant places. Trump wants to make Washington, D.C. pleasant by copying Rome.
Others ordinarily do not affect Trump’s thinking. Republican politicians compliment Trump while Democratic politicians and wiser citizens criticize Trump. Neither improve Trump’s vacuity, for improving and creativity are not his specialties. Signs are he listens a little to wise counsel, good when not too little too late. If I were president, I would exercise humility knowing I must. Politicians need humility and civilizing aspirations. Those words are not in Trump executive orders, and he uses no dictionary. He needs the qualities, not the words.
1
Simple. All other countries of the World should IGNORE TRUMP and the USA and carry on global business as it should be done. Isolate Trump and the USA. Trump cannot fight all nations at once. DJM
1
It’s remarkable to continue watching Trumps’ MENTAL DISABILITY reeking havoc. all WITHOUT RESTRAINTS.
It’s remarkable to keep witnessing the utter political ( and plain common sensical !)paralysis by Congress in utilizing what The Constitution prescribed to remedy situations such as we’ve been in for a long time.
With ever worsening circumstances repeatedly pointing to the need to act.
By now the responsibility for acting lays with the Democratic members of Congress who have already announced their support for starting impeachment proceedings. Speaker Pelosi is apparently not following the Constitution’s guidance. Now that we’re having concentration camps for
Asylum seekers and others just as the world have seen before- WHAT ELSE is Pelosi and her Democrats are waiting for !?
2
This is nonsense. American foreign policy has by and large been fairly successful at protecting our interests in recent decades, vastly more so than it would have if the advice of the far left had been taken. I'm afraid Nick Kristof has stopped thinking for himself and is now simply repeating what others have told him.
"Remember Iraq and Resist the Warmongers
The United States and Iran remain on a collision path. Here’s what President Trump should do."
RESIGN
6
Stopping Iran from exporting oil is a provocative act of war. Saying that anything Iran does in response is unprovoked, as “Secretary of State” Pompeo did recently, is another lie.
1
How 'bout Remember Tonkin Gulf ! I'm very, very disappointed in the media, as I haven't seen anywhere the question "Where's your proof! We don't even know that an attack would be justified, let alone 'proportionate.' The President has lied to us before about an "attack" calling for reprisals." Do you think for a moment that the pilot of that drone didn't know where it was, within a meter? Show some proof that it was really over international waters. A little skepticism, please, media heads.
1
There is great respect that I hold for those in government -- any branch -- who exercise caution when it comes to promotion of death, destruction of property and war conduct. That even applies to 45 for whom I generally have scant praise. Given 45's combative and confrontational public rhetoric and global policies, I generally believe he contributes to or creates the "fires" he "runs" to describe or extinguish. This time is no different. However, it matters little who started it or struck the first blow. That a not war-like solution is applied by one party credited with positive leadership role is what counts!
It’s useless to recommend a policy to Trump. His only policy is to make himself look grand on the world stage. And then to announce some faux accomplishment. Now that he has reversed all of Obama’s accomplishments that he can, he is bereft of any idea other than self promotion. Save your breaths friends. Impeach him, jail him or defeat him in ‘20.
3
Maximum pressure applied by our fearless leader with minimum preparation or knowledge of the outcome. How can it be estimated that 150 civilians would be killed? That more similar actions would follow, leading to out and out war? We totter from one fiasco to the next without any good outcome predicted in these rash statements and continue to run a precipitous path to absolutely nowhere. Bluster and conflate. The opposite of policy and w/o a secy of defense, a state department that provides other options. None of this bodes well.
1
No person in their right mind will forget Iraq and the Himalayan blunder of George W. Bush administration. That said it is hard to resist the powerful warmongers. Luckily the with the demise of McCain the war mongering crowd that thinks military solution is the the most prudent solution is very weak. Senator Graham has become more level headed,pragmatic and realistic in the post McCain era. What President Trump should is do to Iran is what he did to North Korea. Push Iran to the negotiation at a Summit between the presidents of the 2 countries. Trump should conditionally lift sanctions and not keep moving the goal post. Do it all at one time.
1
I fear and loathe the Trump presidency, and I simply loathe Trump, but I will say that it is to his credit that he recognizes the utter folly of going to war with Iran and is trying to withdraw his metaphoric foot from the quicksand in which he has deliberately stepped.
Now the danger comes from the likes of Liz Cheney and John Bolton. Let's hope Trump can resist their siren song of the glories of war. They both personify Pindar's timeless quote that "war is sweet to those who have never experienced it."
6
Mr. Kristof,
You left out our support of Israel's current tactics along with Saudi Arabia's in trying to neutralize Iran. They are just as much to blame in pushing the present administration actions in regard to Iran. What do you think Kushner was doing going back and forth to Saudi Arabia and Israel beside working out business deals? What are the pay offs to Trump and family for the USA aggressive stance toward Iran. Why would we pull out of the treaty that Obama and European countries agreed to? What was Iran doing to to us? The USA already discouraged a bombing of Iran by Israel under another administration. Why now? Both Israel and Saudi Arabia want to be the predominant and controlling countries in the middle east after Bush's war devastated all the others. They have questionable leaders just like our's as are their policies. Make sure you put the blame on all involved.
5
There is no forethought or strategy in this dysfunctional criminal administration. For the warmongers Bolton & Pompeo (& the military industrial complex), it's all about getting us into another conflict asap. For trump, it's all about ratings. And this week, wasn't the right time for a ratings bonanza.
However, I (sadly) believe next week could be the week for maximum attention & ratings. 2 nights of Democrat's debates would be optimal time for "breaking news" to bounce from coverage of debates to coverage of an airstrike split screened with 45 bloviating.
Sound absurd? I wouldn't put anything past 45's need for attention & dominating the news cycle. Casualties? War? Those are not considerations. The only consideration is 45's bottomless need for attention at any cost.
9
America does not buy any oil from Iran. So why was USS Abraham Lincoln ordered to the Persian Gulf last month? Is it because America wants to ensure the freedom of navigation of other countries' oil-tankers, which supply oil to countries other than the U.S? How is that consistent with Trump's policy of America First?
Even nations that do not rely on Iranian oil will be impacted if the world market is disrupted.
1
@From Where I Sit
If Iran even did those acts, which I doubt, it was Trump pulling out of the treaty that was made along with the European countries that started all this. And why shouldn't Iran react to this aggression on our part.
4
It's very easy to speculate what Donald Trump should do when it comes to Iran -- but the bottom line is he probably won't do it, preferring instead to envision himself as the'tough guy' who shoots first and asks later...maybe.
Of course he's made the problem even more intractable by withdrawing the U.S. from a Nuclear Agreement with Iran only because it was instituted by Obama.
And because he's unable to resort to the use of diplomacy at the behest of his "Warhawk council" -- namely John Bolton, Mike Pompeo and Senator Tom Cotton, there's no reason to think Trump's present moratorium is going to be a lasting one.
In any case it's safe to assume that between the build up of ships and troops in the region, the amount of fatalities from airstrikes would easily exceed 150 Iranians.
There's no way out of this unless cooler heads prevail, but unfortunately they have already left the room.
4
Hang in there Donald. You are experiencing the extremely manipulative pressure of the Military Industrial Complex. They made hundreds of billons of dollars on GW's "Weapons of Mass Destruction" lie and they smell more profit, huge profits, magnificent profits, if, and only if you start a war, conflict, police action, call it what you may, with Iran. They are already threatening your voter base with their criticism. DO NOT GIVE IN TO THEM. They are the "Great Satan" at the core of our Republic. Yes, when legitimate war is needed they are invaluable but they thrive financially on small conflicts and local war in the meantime. Stand up to them and history will reward you. Perhaps if you do, you'll find your stride and can yet become a great president. This is your crucible. Study John Bolton carefully during this period. Watch him like a hawk. Know who he calls, sees and interacts with.
8
Who hired John Bolton and bailed out of the JCPOA, please? Who’s been stomping around threatening our allies and Iran?
1
You give good advice, Nicholas Kristof, but it will fall on deaf ears.
I cannot figure out if Trump really wants war with Iran. I do think he likes the power. I do think he wants to decimate Obama's legacy. And I do think he wants to help Netanyahu, Putin and the Saudis, and war with Iran would garner their support.
But Trump seems genuinely averse to war. Maybe it frightens him, at a fundamental level. Probably he worries most about the US economy, keeping job numbers and the stock market going strong. War adds unpredictability to the equation. While Trump feeds on chaos and instability, he is desperate for re-election.
Trump likes to talk the talk, but I don't think he has the stomach to walk the walk with a real war, anywhere.
Iran is not any immediate threat to America. We are the ones who unilaterally withdrew from the Iran deal. There is no current rational justification for war with Iran. Loss of American lives in such a war will have terrible repercussions domestically for Trump. And loss of Iranian lives will have terrible repercussions for him internationally as well.
Most importantly, Republicans fear that an unnecessary war will cost them dearly in the election next year. So far, they have tolerated Trump's inanity for political gains. But they are not prepared to put Trump over party with Iran. They will not cross the line on that one.
8
Nicholas Kristof, Trump is not interested in what the experts say. He is interested solely in what he, Donald J. Trump has to say. If there was room for another opinion in the room you can bet it would not be anyone else's but his. What I find unnerving is how willing he, W., Cheney, and some others have always been when it comes to sending other people's family members to war when they themselves never participated in a war or in the armed services at all.
16
Why is there a continuous and ominous silence from the Democratic Party? Unless and until Trump and his Republican enablers are removed from power by those who truly care about the future of this nation and the future of their children, we will be on a collision course with the kind of disaster that the world has not seen since the World War II Era.
8
Nicholas, excellent points.
If the US attacks Iran in the aftermath of our pulling out of the nuclear deal, then Iran will likely resort to asymmetrical war.
I remember a chilling Times story from 2007 citing how Iran had agents in Latin America capable of launching terrorist strikes against the people of the US. Who knows whether those operatives are still in place - but we cannot rule out the possibility of asymmetrical retaliation against American civilians or interests, especially in an America where high powered weapons and materials capable of being used in bombs are as easy to obtain as sporting goods.
Iran agreed to halt its nuclear program for a number of years, a period within the United States and the world could have profitably used to peacefully reintegrate that nation into the global order. Meanwhile, our 'ally' in Saudi Arabia has instead been waging a religious proxy war against Iran - all the while promoting an even more extreme version of Islam than that advocated for by the Ayatollahs.
While I am no fan of this regime, and profoundly regret our decision to overthrow the fledging democratic Iranian Republic in 1953, what is it to do?
IMHO, this Iranian regime is little different than the kind of regime that might emerge were American evangelicals and Dominionists to get their way in this country. IMHO, that statement may sting, but it is nonetheless accurate.
The war America that most urgently needs to wage is the one within our collective psyche.
9
@Matthew Carnicelli
One correction (it's a terrible thing when your last line is the one with the error).
My last line should have read:
The war that America most urgently needs to wage is the one within its collective psyche.
3
We think we have advanced so far as people, but war, or at least military action, seems still to be close to a first resort rather than the last resort.
One problem with this administration is that there have been so many lies that one never knows what the truth really is. Whatever Trump's reason for calling off a military strike, he got this one right. Of course, he's the one who escalated everything when he withdrew from the Iran nuclear treaty that was working, so we can't give him too much credit.
Trump and his advisors seem never to have a strategy, just depending on whatever tactics he thinks of at the time. That's a recipe for disaster.
6
We should recall the Gulf Of Tonkin incident in 1964. It sounds like Nick accepts that the Iranians are responsible for what happened recently to the ships in the Gulf. I think we should consider alternative scenarios. Here's one alternative: the Israelis, working with the war hawks in Washington (i.e., Bolton, Pompeo, et al.) and perhaps unbenownst to Trump, carried out the attacks as a way of provoking Trump into military action. We should keep in mind that it's the Israelis who most want the US to go to war with Iran. I hope the really good investigative journalists (Hirsch, Woodward, Risen, etc.) will work on this.
9
@Zack Krieger
I’ve noticed that not just Nick but most of the MSM here is in lockstep and now all seem to indicate that Iran is responsible for the tankers. Talk about a compliant media. We are forced to go to other sources to hear another possible explanation. Thant goodness for the internet.
You absolutely nailed it. The Israelis and the weak minded Bolton and Pompeo want this war. If the Israelis want a fight then they can have a go but the USA should stay out. Then let’s see if Netanyahu will pick a fight if no one comes to his rescue.
2
@Zack Krieger
Agree with your call on this one.
1
It seems the term "maximum pressure " is a relative one. When president trump utters it it means what it should. It is also unique to him. When past presidents have employed the term it was generally nothing more than a pretext to commence warmongering. Consequently it's more than a bit presumptuous for Mr. Kristof to say president Trumps version will not work as its never been tried before.
Critics of the president have yet to acknowledge that our president is unlike any that has preceded him. He is not beholden to the globalists who profit from foreign conflicts. Indeed they did everything in their power to deny him the presidency. He got elected in part by promising to everyday American people that he would stop engaging in non stop warring.
Self anointed soothsayers like Mr. Kristoff have and continue to predict imminent war and economic chaos resulting from president Trump's version of maximum pressure but to date they have been embarrassingly wrong. One is left to wonder whether their failures provide them with comfort or disappointment. Regardless, until just one of their prognostications is realized I will continue to have faith in the presidents instincts.
1
@tim k
Why doesn't Trump just sue the Iranians? He is good at it.
1
Trump applies his New York real estate strategy to international relations. What may have worked in getting his contractors to accept far less than they were owed simply will not work with foreign countries, especially those to whom a loss of face would be intolerable.
Once "maximum sanctions" are in place, then there is nothing left except a choice between surrender and war. And history teaches us that surrender does not occur. In 1941, President Roosevelt imposed an oil and steel embargo on Japan to deter further aggression in China. We got our answer on December 7.
What may save us is that, like all bullies, the President does not want to fight, and he may simply quietly back down, and declare victory.
3
Does Tucker Carlson earn a staff position during the second term of the Trump presidency for showing such good insight regarding this canceled air strike? Your points are very concise, yet the Iranians could pull the clearest diplomatic intentions out of focus with ongoing provocations that could irreversibly start up the western war machine for inevitable military action of some kind, with allies quickly getting on board if Iranian tensions spin out of control.
Summer has just started, and it could be a difficult one to get through without militant groups provoking conflict.
Hopefully it won't be one of those summers where even the coolest heads reverse themselves due to escalation of violence. Options expressing oil at $70 a barrel into August, and what goes to 70 can easily go to 100. Is it a surgical strike or longer term involvement getting ramped up here for over there? Iranian hostage taking is unappealing to everyone, and so is oil at $120.
I share your relief that Trump retreated from the planned military strike against Iran. He did the right thing for once, but alas, for the wrong reason.
I do not believe for one moment that Trump canceled the strike because of concern for potential Iranian casualties, as he claimed. Tucker Carlson of Fox News had been warning him for days that the attack would kill his reelection bid. He ignored his military and defense team and acted on the advice of a Fox news pundit. The only casualty that mattered to Trump was his own political future.
Tucker Carlson for Secretary of Defense? Why not? There’s a vacancy and he is probably as qualified as many other members of the Trump cabinet. More to the point, Fox News pulls Trump’s strings. It would not surprise me to see Carlson join fellow Fox pundit Larry Kudlow in the Trump White House.
Trump thinks his advisers should advise him based on what serves his own political interests. He gets that advice from Fox News, not from the generals and civilian warmongers who surround him. For better or worse, they have their own agendas, which are not obsessed with presidential electoral politics. Trump desperately needs to be the center of attention in all things, including decisions with global consequences, such as war and peace. So send in the clowns from Fox and make the president happy.
6
It is clear that he have a president who is incompetent when it comes to foreign policy as well as many other things. He has appointed perhaps the worst person in the US for foreign policy advice, John Bolton. The only positive is that Trump does not want to get into a major foreign war. The best outcome would be Trump avoids a senseless war with Iran. He can keep pretending that he knows something about foreign policy and most of his supporters probably know so little about foreign policy that they can easily be fooled. I think it has been well described that Trump has a need to look very tough but also to avoid war. That is a difficult feat to accomplish and that is the problem.
2
It's not as if Trump was opposed to the JCPOA; he was opposed to the fact that it was negotiated by the Obama administration. It's not as if Trump was opposed to the ACA; he was opposed to the fact that it was associated with Obama. Indeed, the way Trump handled the latter is much like he's handling the former.
He claims Obamacare is the worst thing in the world, then tells everyone not to worry: He's got something very phenomenal in the works. Eventually, he notices that what his base needs and wants, and what Republicans in Congress are prepared to proffer, are at odds. Chaos ensues and little or nothing gets done. What Trump seems to want with Iran is a "better" version of the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Kerry. But is one obtainable? That seems, at this point, with this president, unlikely.
Perhaps "maximum pressure," applied intelligently, with persistence and meaningful deterrence from low-level attacks, can create a situation wherein Iran is forced back to the table. Instead of a ten-year rest, their enrichment activities would be put on ice in perpetuity. But, again, that looks unlikely.
It's reasonable that so many are so worried this revolutionary, anti-modern, terror-supporting regime has a nuclear program. And do recall that when reinforcements were sent to the region, many on the left caviled; but these are the kinds of attacks CIA warned us about. And don't think it's easy to understand Iran's malefic leadership. Liberals shouldn't make light of them.
What a feeble excuse Trump gave about pulling back his strike. Actually, what stopped Trump from striking Iran now is that it isn't close enough to November 2020. Believe me, this is when we will see a first strike by the U.S., and I doubt it will be "proportionate".
And if the past three years have taught us anything, he doesn't care how badly he hurts the country. Any aggression by the U.S. will be met with unanimous international condemnation (except for Israel, perhaps), further eroding our nation's standing. We will be very much alone.
And Trump has a good reason to use Iran as a run-up to 2020. He desperately wants to stay out of prison, and a war would propel him into a second term. Or, even better for him, he'll use the wholly unprovoked war he starts to claim that a "national emergency" requires that he cancel the election.
Either way, Trump doesn't care that the only result of such a war will be thousands of deaths of our young service men and women, tens of thousands of deaths of Iranian citizens, and a complete demolition of whatever little respect and international standing the U.S. still has.
Trump's voters are in lockstep with him, because any time he kills brown skinned people while consolidating absolute power is a win for them. But from Trump's reign onward, our nation will be known as a willfully ignorant, racist backwater of a country that was once a beacon for human rights and a respected world leader. Thanks to Trump voters, those days are over.
7
Offering Trump "suggestions" as to what he should do is akin to asking someone who sleeps in their MAGA hats that they're backing the wrong horse.
With a reality TV host pretending to be a real president, we know Trump's need for constant attention is insatiable.
As "Internal Polls" show Trump trailing Biden, Trump needs some major airtime distractions.
Not to mention the onslaught of House investigations are a never-ending open wound for Trump.
So . . .
Let's "dare" Iran to do something foolish.
How about having one of our premier surveillance drones taunt Iran by making repeated flyby's, presumably just off their borders - or maybe "dipping their toe" in Iranian airspace.
Shooting down a drown - an unmanned vehicle - known to be used for surveillance is by no means a reason to initiate a counter attack and risk killing actual people in doing so.
Are we to believe for one second that Trump cares one iota about the lives in an adversarial country - or even our country - so long they're not members of his base.
Of course not !
This "Drama Queen" followed a script for coming to the rescue of innocent Iranians with 10 minutes to spare.
None of us should ever be fooled by such a pathetic story line from such a pathetic liar.
14
The National Security Advisor is itching for this war.
The Secretary of State is itching for this war.
The incoming Secretary of Defense is a classmate of Pompeo and presumably shares his views.
MBS is lobbying for this war though his good friend Jared.
Netanyahu has been lobbying for this war for the longest time.
Cheney's daughter is trying her best to complete Papa's apocalyptic vision of turning the entire middle east into a smouldering ruin.
Tucker Carlson stands alone and holds the peace!
3
the reason he claims to have stopped the attacks, 150 people would die, probably betrays his real motive.
since when does Trump care about who's hurt thousands of miles away in the middle east?
he has given weapons to the Saudis to kill thousands in Yemen, he has supported despots who kill people in the Philippines, Egypt and other places.
he supported the Saudis when they brazenly murdered Khashogi.
so, why does Trump care who dies in Iran now??
so, the question then is why did he really stop these attacks?
this is very likely a set-up, a calculation, so he seems like the reluctant war president when he, in fact, does what he really wants and has been gunning to do since he was elected, launches the same attacks here in a few days or weeks after another likely cooked up incident, or one where the Iranians are again pushed or provoked in their own airspace or waters!!
5
Biden is absolutely right, it is a crisis of Trump's own making when he reneged on the Iranian nuclear agreement. Thus the education of Donald J. Trump will continue.
Meanwhile, we have a bigger issue to think about. Namely, the election of the most powerful position in the most powerful nation on earth seemingly at a roll of dice. Imagine this Iranian crisis was with North Korea with nukes and the hawks had its way. We need to figure it all out before we end the world as we know it.
1
With the exception of the Kuwait “war”, the US’s entire history of military interventions and actions since the 1950s has been based on lies and without Congressional declaration of war. Now we have a President who lies more that any leader in history, and we are supposed to listen to him? Please. Just tell your kids not to enlist. And if you’re a good young person who wants to serve his/her country, there are so many non-military ways to do so that actually serve your country!
279
@Dagwood, I would add that even in the case of Kuwait, when skeptics asked why we were sacrificing lives and money to defend a strict theocracy, Bush I assured us that the Kuwaitis would begin a transition to democracy after we defeated Saddam. This was bunk, of course.
46
@Dagwood,
And if all of the "good you " people avoid military service, who does that leave to serve in the military? What do you think that military would look like? Same goes for police, customs and immigration, etc. I'd go so far as to say that some of the problems with these institutions of our society is that so many "good young" people avoid serving at the point of impact, where their virtue really matters.
12
@Dagwood
Well said. As his Mr. Kristof's article. Perhaps he could renegotiate the nuclear deal (this time as a treaty approved by the Senate.) He could make it a much much bigger deal that Obama's deal like maybe twenty years instead of ten.
5
The only problem with your 4 point remedy Mr Kristof is that it requires a rational & sane person to follow through.
11
@GLO- And as we won’t find good critical thinking leadership in our Senate or in Congress as a whole, we are probably doomed.
1
What can be done to reduce the risk of war?
Step 1: Vote Trump out of Office
14
Our P, may have made the best decision of any P in 50 years. Time to congratulate this wonderful man we have sitting as our Commander and Chief. Every other P in my lifetime would have went forward with a senseless thoughtless attack. Hats of Trump, this old Dem will be pulling the lever for you in 2020.
1
@Stubbs You gotta be kidding. It's not even clear why he did not strike. If you're willing to vote for him in 2020 over this one decision, your values are severely compromised already.
1
If Chuck Todd and George Stephanopoulos can have Trump "gets" then why doesn't Nicholas call the White House and get a sit-down with Trump and present his case?
Hey Republicans- War is not a campaign strategy!
17
Resist what?
The decision will be made by the financial requirements of the oligarchy.
Your own elitist paper endorses war.
It's gonna happen and there is little the individual can do about it.
Smedley is rolling in his grave.
1
Maybe a better plan is to impeach Trump fire Bolton, and fire Pompeo.
1
Thank You Mr. Kristof !
NYTimes Best Journalist!
1
Actually, my fellow intelligent Americans, there is only ONE step to prevent war with Iran or any other country....LOCK HIM UP!
3
The horrifying truth is Trump used this critical moment as a public relations stunt. Saying he, at the last moment, cared about the lives lost is just an insidious lie.
A maximum pressure campaign also takes lives; people’s livelihoods are lost and their people starve. It is the worst form of diplomacy; it is terrorism.
It caused the crisis at our own border. Yes, Trump withdrew all aid from Central America which has increased the number of refugees.
A group of children were dropped off at a Dunkin Donuts in New Mexico like unattended baggage. Women and children are being raped while held in what some Congress men and women have described as “dog kennels.” The Venezuelan people are starving to death.
He identifies with strong men that kill dissenters. For Trump to play the “compassion card” and think he is believable is terrifying. What more is he willing to do to win an election?
440
@H.A. Hyde
Your ask, "What more is he willing to do to win an election?" The answer is pretty obvious, isn't it?
ANYTHING!
And, of course that applies to every other Republican beginning with their sugar daddy who owns them, Mitch McConnell.
44
@H.A. Hyde
"Saying he, at the last moment, cared about the lives lost is just an insidious lie..."
We can sure see how much he "cares" about people... especially the suffering babies who are sick and dying in his border detention centers....making them sleep on concrete floors with just a foil blanket and denying them medical attention.
A real Mother Theresa that Donald Trump.
14
@H.A. Hyde. The Times should select this as the comment of the week.
4
Continued silence from the Republican members of Congress cannot continue. They are complicit in the irrational behavior of Mr. Trump on many policy fronts. We need them to act instead like statesmen/women. Unless they take action, he will continue thinking he can do anything he wants with impunity.
305
@Nancy the GOP is front and center in this complicity. just wait and see if they back down from voting to cancel the arms delivery to saudi arabia. i suspect this will happen, regardless of their posturing.
16
@Nancy. Perhaps we're seeing the slow drip by drip destruction of the Republican party that will knock them out of power for a generation. Maybe patience and popcorn is best.
15
@pork chops...the gop seems alive and well to me. They have control of the federal government in spite of the Democratic majority in the House and they control more than half of the state governments. Democrats can make inroads in 2020, but still will not have the power republicans have today. They did not come to their dominance overnight. It took them decades and so it may be for Democrats.
3
Kristof is absolutely right. If the US starts a war with Iran, it will make Iraq look like a cake walk.
Americans seem to have so little understanding of Iran or the Iranian people, who are proud, educated, and welcoming people, but an attack would unite them. There is not only the army, the Revolutionary Guard, but even small villages have their basij - young men prepared to defend their country against all.
America remembers the seizure of the American embassy; the Iranians remember Operation AJAX of the CIA that overthrew the elected prime minister and installed the Shah in 1953 just so cheap oil could flow to the West. They remember our support of and supplying of weaponry and poison gas to Saddam in their 8 year war with Iraq after Iraq invaded Iran, a war that killed a million Iranians. As well, they remember the civilian aircraft shot down by the US, killing 290 people, as written by Nicholas Kristof.
If Iran is attacked for any reason, justified or not, the Middle East will be in flames, but so might we.
577
In addition to what you said I’d like to point out the relentlessly mountainous nature of Iran. Iraq “should” have been a cake walk to conquer and pacify: large, open desert, vast distances, an almost ideal environment to conduct military operations. Look how that turned out.
What in the heck does war with Iran look like? After Iraq, are we really going to be that naive again?
65
@Frances I heartily agree with your comment, but would like to point out that the Shah replaced his father in 1941, a consequence of British-Russian action in the second world war. As I understand it, the action of the CIA and British secret service (Operation Ajax) was to remove opposition to the Shah that included removal of the Prime Minister who was proposing among other things to nationalize the Iranian oil industry.
13
@Frances
Iraq was a horror show of misinformation and direct lies during the Bush II administration, but it was fundamentally predicated on 9/11. As was Afghanistan. 9/11 was a direct attack on American soil. It was as visceral as it gets.
Iran is nothing like that. Iran is not an immediate threat to the US. The US unilaterally withdrew from the Iran deal. Iran has been upholding its part of the bargain (an agreement signed by many US allies). US withdrawal and the associated sanctions have been completely inappropriate, to put it euphemistically.
Republicans have tolerated Trump's insanity for short-term political gains. But Iran? They will not allow him to get away with this one. They will not sacrifice their party in the elections next year for Trump. Not a chance.
22
Personally, I think Putin is the one who called it off. Either Trump made his obligatory call to the Kremlin beforehand, or Russian monitoring of the situation informed them the mission was a go. But the decision to call it off was made in Moscow.
Reason being, Iran is a major ally of Russian influence in the Middle East and Putin doesn't want the current Iranian regime overthrown.
Too many people have bought into the no collusion fantasy. Just because they hid it well enough so Mueller couldn't prove it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
This time the decision may have been in America's best interest. But that's not always going to be the case.
141
@JimmySerious I read also that Netanyahu, ironically enough, was fearful too of a war with Iran. There is a strong possibility that Iran would through its ties with Hezbollah retaliate even more against its adversary Israel. Whatever the reason or whoever offered input, Trump did not halt strikes because of compassion toward innocent Iranians. He can care less about the oppressed from Central America to the Middle East.
49
@JimmySerious
I was wondering when someone would try to link this with Putin. The fact is that the two countries which have the most influence on Trump are the Saudis and Israel, but if Putin really did call this one off, good for Putin. We need more such manipulation in favor of peace. Now if only Putin could persuade Trump to lift the sanctions and go back to adhering to the treaty.
In reality, it does seem much more likely that Trump was influenced by Tucker Carlson. As bad as Tucker is on other issues, he does seem to be an antiwar voice that Trump might listen to.
11
@JimmySerious
Yes, it is difficult to believe that Trump actually cares about loss of human life.
Where was the Iranian missile made?
Did Trump receive a call from his friend Putin telling him to stop?
10
The President and his team of strategists have been quite successful in one regard, they have effectively isolated themselves on the world stage. Putting together a coalition to protect the rights of nations to navigate freely through international waters would have been a better starting point. Coalitions demand mutual trust, something this administration is in short supply of with much of the world.
7
What did trump know at 10 minutes before canceling the strike that he did not know 20 minutes before canceling the strike ?
Or for that matter, before even requesting any strike in the first place?
16
According to the lead story in this newspaper he backed off the strike because Tucker Carlson said it was crazy. But I am concerned because just a bit later Sean Hannity said we should bomb the hell out of them. The worry is that Trump cannot please both. Of course this sounds like a story from The Onion. Frighteningly it is not.
12
Sean Hannity is Netanyahu’s lackey. He absolutely loves him. Every other word is Bibi this or Bibi that. Sean Hannity, to use Trumps language, is a low IQ individual.
Common, ordinary Americans like myself are left in a curious position these days, hoping-against-hope that there are people totally unknown to them deep down in the federal bureaucracies who are selectively thwarting Trump’s orders or willing to disregard them entirely.
As time goes by, one gets the impression that there are fewer and fewer of them, as witnessed most recently by the started-too-soon Iran bombing run.
This is what comes of electing a mentally unfit President who has gained total control of the Republican Party.
22
It's not just that Trump doesn't have a coherent strategy to push Iran towards an acceptable resolution it's that he doesn't even seem to know what he wants to accomplish.
What is the Trump/Bolton/Pompeo end game with Iran? Is there a rational goal?
Does Trump think economic or military devastation is going to turn Iran into a peaceful Jeffersonian democracy? Or perhaps even more to Trump's liking, a murderous authoritarian who feeds his ego and buys a few Trump condos on the side?
Hope is not strategy, but I cannot even tell what Trump is hoping for with Iran besides trying to appear tough and competent without having to expend the effort to think. He will fail as he has failed at every international challenge.
Once again, he will only break things, make a bad situation worse, declare victory and add another item to the list of messes future presidents will need to clean up.
12
@LT
It is not whatTrump is hoping. It is what Israel and Saudi Arabia is hoping.
Mr. Kristof,
Straw man arguments using fake analogies?
These regimes you cite have had entrenched (rogue) philosophies for years if not decades. And you expect Trump to change them in a couple of years?
Maximum pressure works .. ask Mueller's team who tried that on even innocent victims like Carter Page.
Maximum pressure works .. why do you think Iran is desperately seeking attention, Xi is visiting Pyongyang, and Xi wants to talk to Trump now?
2
It’s also important to resist the urge to become hysterical over every event. The Times ran several columns claiming Trump was taking us to war. This despite reporting in May that Trump made it clear to the Pentagon that he didn’t want to go to war with Iran. These overreactions are unnecessary and unhelpful.
4
IT decided that 150 casualties would be wrong.
I think it's telling that "Hawks" like John Bolton are in fact draft-dodgers and cowards. It's easy to send other peoples children to war while sitting safe and sound in an air-conditioned office in Washington. John Bolton had his chance as a young man to join the armed services and he avoided service. I think he should keep his mouth shut when it comes to military matters.
My youngest son is a Marine and he is ready and willing to fight for this country, but it better be a necessary war.
29
@Jon Tolins
Well said. We should never choose war unless it is self defense and not for some oil company trying to protect it's interest, or some armament company wanting to sell it's wares.
7
@Jon Tolins. Thank you for reminding readers how many of these draft dodgers are now arm chair hawks. My husband was a helicopter pilot in Vietnam and our oldest son is a naval officer. We loathe Trump and this latest saber rattling is proof he has no concept of international diplomacy. Dear God let us make it to 11-20.
13
@Jon Tolins
I hope for you and your son's sake that we do not engage in any unnecessary wars but it doesn't seem like our choice anymore, just the war freaks and oligarchs.
We don't want to lose anymore good men and women. Saw what Vietnam did to our military men and women and our country as a whole. Seems like many people forgot or don't care.
I despise Trump. However, he was right about holding back. I don’t care who he listened to in reaching his conclusion regarding proportionality, except for the fact that it was not Bolton or Pompeo. If Tucker Carlson is telling Trump how the country really feels about war in the Middle East, so be it. For the fist time in 4 years I can say that Trump made a good decision.
Off point, Trump’s tariffs are the equivalent of a VAT. That is how he is going to pay for his tax cuts. I’m not opposed to a VAT, but please call it what it is — a tax on end users, that is you and me. Maybe it’s good for the environment as perhaps people will stop buying so much junk. Maybe filthy corporate farming would be curtailed (as long as Trump does not backdoor subsidies). Perhaps true tariffs would support locally grown food staples.
As for immigration, if Congress would actually do its job, Trump would not be able to run willy nilly over the topic. He is enabled by a bunch of freeloading, self absorbed “leaders” that live only to be elected again. Term limits please.
6
@Rainy Night
You made some good points.
Wow, Mr. Kristof wants to take the word of Iran, a terrorist-sponsoring rogue nation, over the word of U.S. intelligence officials on whether the drone was in Iranian airspace.Notice how when Trump disagrees with the conclusions of intelligence officials, progressives respond by saying, "how dare he contradict his own officials!" but then pundits like the author disparage administration officials' intelligence conclusions when it fits their own purposes. And the argument that if we don't kowtow to Iran it will engage in more terrorism is nothing other than appeasement. 'See what you made me do!' is what an abusive husband says after beating his wife, but here the author uses it to argue, that, essentially, we can't blame Iran if the U.S. 'forces' it to engage in terrorist strikes against civilians. Mr. Kristof, while staunchly defending Iran, then criticizes Israel, our closest ally. Once again, note the hypocrisy: the left constantly attacks Trump for "alienating allies", while constantly attacking one of our closest allies, Israel.
2
@R.P.
We pulled out of the treaty, not Iran, and for no clear reason other Trump's whim. Iran was abiding by the treaty.
1
Would the USA shoot down an Iranian drone operating in international waters off the coast of America?
Of course President Trump is all about ego. Yet today he finds he is being praised for NOT acting macho and impulsively launching a deadly strike against the Iranians. Hopefully this will act as a beneficial wake-up call for him, and get him thinking that, "Hey, in this situation maybe I can get people to think I'm a super president if I resist the temptation to blow people up and instead show what a great leader I am by getting our military leaders and others to rein in these impulses!" Well, we can hope...
2
Kristof needs to sign up immediately as a volunteer advisor to Trump. Obviously he knows what should be done better than anyone else. Trump of course, cancelled military actions against Iran. If that was correct then I wonder why Kristof opposes Trump’s decision.
@Richard Bourne. A stopped clock is correct twice every day.
There is value in having a chief executive who has run a governmental office, but we have Trump. All he really knows is how to jack up a reality show audience and sell his brand.
Hugh
9
Wake up and face the facts. The Military Industrial Conspiracy that a Great GOP President warned us about as he turned the office to the new commander and chief, has been fulfilled. This government is totally corrupt!
The Corporations and Banks have succeeded to control the United States Government. We must STOP THIS CONTROL of our lives. As Citizens of this country our only solution is to uproot this infestation of waging WAR for PROFIT.
9
If all you know is how to use a hammer, everything you see looks like a nail. Maximum pressure ...
4
I wonder when America will wake to the fact that Trump seems to be doing what his master in Moscow wants; empower our enemies and weaken our friends and the links we have with our allies.
Manafort ran things for Putin’s Ukrainian leader, at least until the people ran him from Ukraine.
And now look at what Manafort has achieved here in the US.
Hugh
3
The author fails to mention important features of Iran in his recommendations. First, the rulers are as vile as any regime on earth. They have slaughtered tens of thousands of their own people and helped massacre hundreds of thousands of innocent people in Syria and elsewhere. Second, Iranian actions are often not the result of a unified government plan, but of the attempt of one of several competing factions trying to show their anti-American toughness.
For forty years we have failed to work out a "modus vivendi" with the thuggish gang that leads a country where the majority of people like America and don't want a conflict with us. Until the Iranian regime improves any understanding with them is worthless. As a last resort inflicting a bloody nose may be necessary.
Trump is delusional to think, after breaking America’s word and withdrawing from the compliant Iran Nuclear Deal, that the Iranians would want to negotiate a new deal with him?
Might as well consult with his advisors at Fox News, Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, and all the rest, to see what they suggests. Unbelievable!
3
Interesting that Mr. Kristof put Israel in a bracket.
It is the chief actor on applying pressure on Iran. Not S.A.
Israel has the US consistently pressured to apply harsh sanctions on Iran. In an campaign year it is at its zenith of influence on US policy.
So far Trump has played along. Pressured Iran, moved the embassy, endorsed Netanyahu's plan to annex the West Bank
And thus avoided the conflict with Israel that characterized the Obama administration
The NY Times 2016
"For Obama and Netanyahu, a Final Clash After Years of Conflict"
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/world/middleeast/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-barack-obama.html
3
Mr. Kristof,
I applaud your thoughts expressed in your opinion piece today. I would add one more step towards de-escalating the current situation. Remove all economic sanctions on Iran right now, see if the Iranian leaders can respond to an olive branch. Take the first major step towards the basic human rights of all Muslim people and see what happens. It's worth a chance. We cannot be at continual war with the Muslim world, there is too much at stake, and besides it's a small planet. There are currently 1.8 billion Muslim's populating the same Earth as everyone else. We all share the same DNA, our civilization sprung up in the area of the world the Islamic people have always populated. We should respect and honor the diversity of our home planet, and not dominate and destroy our natural brotherhood. Peace be with you!
5
Indeed, it is a sad day for our democracy when we doubt our own leadership and begin giving the benefit of the doubt to an adversary, Iran. Yes, Nicholas, we can not - and perhaps for years to come - will not forget Iraq. We were deceived and manipulated and vulnerable so soon after 9/11. As a consequence, we did not make the Middle East safer, or for that matter our world at large. Instead, too many of our young soldiers died and were injured either physically or psychologically for the duration of their lives. And look at the innocent victims in Iraq itself. One Republican president triggered a metastasis of violence in that region of the planet. Another, through his own profound ignorance, narcissism, and lack of a moral compass, is taking cruelty to a whole new level...from Iran to Yemen (via his help toward Saudi Arabia), to our neighbors in Central America. This may seem off the subject, but I believe it to be among the roots of this present paradigm. Obama's instincts were right. The Iran Nuclear Deal, in spite of its imperfections, was a step in the right direction. He spent years with educated experts in the field of nuclear science and diplomacy to create a multi-lateral agreement. All for naught? Let us hope and pray that somehow and someway that Deal can be resurrected and made stronger.
9
#4: Seek secret talks with Iran to patch back together the deal." Mr. Kristoff, Initial talks do not to have to be "secret" at all.
Talks will be held next week in an effort to save the accord, the European Union says. Senior officials from Iran, France, Germany, Britain, China, and Russia will meet on June 28 in Vienna to look at ways to "tackle challenges arising from the withdrawal and reimposition of sanctions by the United States on Iran," the EU said.
It is clear that some countries still want to salvage parts of what Trump dumped. No representative from the U.S. will be at the diplomatic table. It will duly noted. Do we really believe we can go it alone? What will our allies, Russia and China be discussing and proposing to de-escalate the Iranian crisis without our participation? It seems like a missed opportunity which can be beneficial and acceptable to all stakeholders. Diplomacy has become a dirty word in the Trump administration.
3
So continuing with the ‘surgical strike’ metaphor, that while sometimes a patient may die after surgery it is possible that in this current case that the surgeon may die as well. Then again if we take on a war with Iran and we lose it, whatever losing it might mean, then in five or ten years we’ll be buddies with Iran suchlike with our good Vietnam friends. A relationship we bought with about a trillion dollars and 60,000 military dead.
4
The cancellation of the attacks may have been a clever setup for the same attacks later.
It makes Trump look like the reluctant president who's hand is forced by Iran, when, in fact, he has been the aggressor from the start.
he scuttled the agreement, not the Iranians, and has created the current crisis.
he and his hawks may have even calculated and foreseen this exact scenario. they've have probably proved and egged on Iran, continually pushing and pinching it with sanctions, yet it met its part of the deal.
so, it may be a mistake to believe the narrative that he stopped the strikes.
it works well for him should he start them again here in a few days, so he can tell his base and those Americans usually gullible enough to believe anything he says that he wasn't the aggressor.
the only reason he stopped the attacks may be because he and his hawks know they are viewed by most people as the aggressors right now.
5
From the viewpoint of Iran, dealing with Trump is not a good approach. He is inconsistent and his goal is winning the 2020 election. Iran needs to sit back and do the only long term plan which will ensure peace and prosperity.
The key to this plan is in reconciliation with Isreal. This can only be done with direct talks. One basis of the plan is mutual respect for each country's religions. The suggestion here to read both Gibbon and Thomas Jefferson thoughts on religious tolerance. The basis is the dominance of the two partner countries via the sheer power of the combined military. Yankee will then go home on its accord.
All of the reasoned ideas presented in this article by Nicholas Kristof rely on two things: 1) the ability to reason, and 2) an understanding of the history concerning U.S. relations with the Middle East.
It's an absolutely worrisome and frightening realization to be aware that, in reality, Mr. Trump has evidently little or no understanding of any nuanced ideas about anything. He seems only capable of caring around the fact that he can swagger, he can be bellicose, and he can threaten, it seems, just for the sheer thrill of his being able to do these things on national and world stages.
Leadership requires knowledge followed by a careful leveraging of decision making in any crisis situation--qualities we do not see in this president.
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@Cate
You are so very right in your summary.
Donald Trump will continue to strut his way through his unexamined career. His personality has long been incapable of any improvement.
If anything, he will become even more difficult in the future.
We must all vote for change. Our safety, and our future, depend on our votes.
6
"He is improvising, confusing friend and foe alike, even as he plays a perilous game of chicken ... " All of Mr. Trump's chest beating, demagoguery, and strutting is for short term gain with his base. No thought to all Americans, career American diplomats, American allies, etc., just his beloved 40% and Fox. Now the real effects are coming in, and he is in over his head. All along, Mr. Trump's presidential efforts have been just a vanity project, plus an effort to promote his "brand" and his "base". After his surprise (apparently even to him) election, he seemed to consider the country as an extension of his personal sandbox, Mar-A-Lago etc. Now faced with truly tough decisions possibly involving thousands of deaths - American, foreign, military, civilian - he should finally realize he was never qualified to be POTUS and never will be.
31
The emoluments clause served Americans and their presidents very well. Now that we’ve discarded it, consider that every Trump branded property, domestic and foreign, is now a very soft target for any organization looking for retribution for his decisions as president. His occupancy rates could plummet once his customers realize that. Can anyone please explain to Trump that remaining as president puts at risk his real estate empire? Maybe he cares about that.
9
Why is it that Republicans always want to start wars and Democrats have the try and clean up after them? Iraq was $2 billion per week at the peak. We can’t afford that anymore.
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@KeninDFW Remember Vietnam. can thank the Kennedy's and Johnson for that one.
1
@greatnfi. The U.S. war in Indochina started with the U.S. funding 100% of the cost of the French effort to take make those countries as colonies following the defeat of the Japanese, under President Eisenhower. And then taking the project on after the French defeat in 1954.
Trump’s cancelled military action would if executed have been wholly disproportionate to Iran’s shooting down an unmanned drone that may or may not have invaded Iranian airspace. It is deeply disturbing that Trump, Pompeo and Bolton could initiate military action without realizing the obvious that such a disproportionate attack would have risked further retaliation and military action that might quickly spin out of control.
Trump deserves no points for pulling back from a reckless decision to initiating proceed. This trio is itching for a fight and appears willing to use any pretext to attack Iran. Congress needs to step up to the plate and get actively involved before the Trio stumbles into a war for which they have no strategy or plan while they think military action will improve Trump’s electoral prospects.
22
Yeah, instead of knuckle-under tactics, how about focusing on balancing interests in the region. Real leaders find ways to support all interests and ensure longterm peace.
14
He backed off once he was finally made to realize the followings:
a) Unlike GWB, he will not be able to cobble together a coalition of the willing. The only countries that want US to go to military war with Iran are Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel.
b) Oil prices will skyrocket as oil shipment will have a harder time passing thru the straight of Hormuz.
c) the global market and economy will respond accordingly as they will be feeling not just the impact of the many trade wars he started but also military war.
d) He will also split his small base of supporters further imperiling his chance of being re-elected.
e) US will be bogged down in an endless war in middlle east and central Asia for decades to come.
The chickens would have finally come home to roost: he will not be able to declare himself the hero of a crisis of his own making.
22
What is interesting to note is that Iran can choke off 30 percent of the world's delivery of oil and liquefied natural gas.
Although it may not affect the U.S., it will definitely affect Europe, China and Japan. Where will they get these vitally needed resources?
Russia will deliver these items at of course, highly inflated prices. That is how supply and demand works.
Putin and his cronies will make out like bandits and it will be the best cash gifts that Trump will ever give them.
As for the U.S., the East Coast's largest oil refinery just went up in flames. Expect major price increases in gasoline and home heating oil in the U.S. Trump will reward his major campaign donors there too.
,
8
In answer as to stopping a war with Iran, I also favor returning to a draft. First up for a front line combat unit with no exception would be the family members of those who voted for war or started it if not in direct national defence. No exceptions for bone spurs or other medical outs unless truely disabled. I would begin with the Sons and Daughters of those who voted or started the war and then move towards next possible family descendants from there. If one cannot send a family member to War one cannot vote for a war or begin a war. Robert Heinlein wrote about that. I served my 4yrs. Let one of his son's serve front and center.
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Much as many of us detest Mr Trump and abhor most of what he says and does, we should not hesitate to voice our unmitigated approval when he does something right. And his calling off military action in this case was absolutely right, as was his argument - that the loss of a drone was not a justification for the loss of human lives, regardless of the victims' nationality and religion. The underlying problems remain - that any Republican President will tend to surround himself with people like John Bolton, who are likely to choose hawkish responses to critical situations, and that very often Mr Trump in particular has only a limited intellectual capacity when required to make judgments which could easily set off a chain of actions leading to war - albeit once again a war at a convenient distance from Pennsylvania Avenue.
8
Does this now that Iran is now free to shoot down American drones flying in international airspace? Seems to me that Trump has now given Iran that permission since any retaliation would result in Iranian casualties.
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@Krugman In 1988, the US shot down an Iranian Airbus flying in its scheduled route over Iranian waters killing all 290 on board, including 66 children. They thought it was an F-14 Tomcat.
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@Krugman
Worse than that , Trump`s4th of July Victory parade will have to be postponed , for now.
@Krugman
To level the playing field, can Iran fly their drones skirting our international borders?
Once again we're faced with the prospect of fighting a pointless war nobody was interested in having.
This is what happens when generations of criminals are allowed to go unpunished by virtue of having served in a presidential administration. They cycle back into power just when you thought they had finally crept away to some think tank where they could collect a huge paycheck and let their dark, world-shaping fantasies simmer in private; far away from the corridors of power.
There's zero cost to any individual who aims to destroy the country and cash-in on it.
As a nation, we're obsessed with decorum, giving bad faith actors endless benefit of the doubt, never pursuing legal action against those who leverage their power to undermine and destroy. We really believe we'd be worse-off hauling these people before a court to account for their crimes, or failing that, treat them as the absolute social pariahs they deserve to be.
We worry that such treatment for the architects of the Iraq War, Iran-Contra, Watergate - or Trump's off-brand kleptocracy- would be going too far. It's more important to move on.
Meanwhile, the latest people you almost forgot existed are back after a decade or three to drag us into a war with Iran and protect Trump from investigation. The media is already courting Sarah Sanders.
Yes, the very people she willfully harmed are now steadfastly refusing to admit she was out to destroy the free press and the country.
Why, that would be impolite.
21
Why is it so difficult for Republicans to realize that war can kill human beings, damage lives, and destroy families?
****A Connecticut physician
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@Michael Richter
The cruelty is the point. Spite fuels them. Republicans understand they're hurting people and campaign on how they plan to use their policies to hurt people. Lee Atwater laid it all out decades ago.
It lets their constituents live vicariously through that exercise of power over the less powerful, and frequently maligned.
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@Michael Richter good question. I think it's because they don't see Iranians or anyone else as human beings with hopes, dreams, families, and lives like the rest of us. They aren't curious about the world they inhabit or the views others have. They have one view and one view only: America right or wrong. It's called extremism and it happens in every country. America, unfortunately, has the firepower to back it up.
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@Michael Richter
WWI (116,000 US KIA) Woodrow Wilson (D)
WWII (405,000 US KIA) Franklin Roosevelt (D)
Korea (54,000 US KIA) Harry Truman (D)
Vietnam (58,000 US KIA) Lyndon Johnson (D)
Let's climb down off of our moral high horse and start thinking about more than what gives us a temporary political advantage. The world is going through a socioeconomic revolution and there are more challenges than solutions.
4
Nicholas, I agree with your suggestion for the president to have “secret “ talks with Iran, also known for generations as “ diplomacy”, the only problem I see with this is the usual coterie of Trump haters screaming for his head as they did when he had private conversations with Putin. We really must get over this nonsensical us against them attitude, democracy allows for different opinions, the real problem is the seeming intractability of the inequality that our form of democracy has created, not the assuming of opposite positions, this has always been with us. We need to concentrate on matters that will recreate a middle class, casting aspersions accomplishes nothing. Trump for the first time with respect to policy in the Middle East has exhibited good sense, he should be lauded for this. It’s time to take the politics out of politics and force all of the elected officials to start running the country again or get them out of the way and allow someone else a chance who will, I don’t care if that means McConnell, Schumer, Graham and Pelosi, they’ve had their day in the sun and the world is a poorer place for it, time for them to move on.
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@Ted
When Mr. Kristof is suggesting "secret talks with Iran to patch back together the nuclear agreement" I'm pretty sure that he doesn't mean that Trump will personally be involved with those talks. He means that expert negotiators would be sent in, which, of course, means that it will never happen under Trump. As for Trump exhibiting good sense: it seems that we would never have been in this position in the first place if it weren't for him. He is fond of using his showmanship to create unnecessary crises then ostentatiously ending them.
"War is sometimes necessary". No, Sir, in this day and age of instant communication, WAR SHOULD NEVER BE NECESSARY.
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I don't agree that it is essential that we find out if the drone was in Iranian airspace. The Iranians had the right to shoot it down. If the US forces encountered a foreign drone let's say 200 miles from its airspace, the US would shoot it down and the US would not apologize for that. It would say that it is a matter of national security. So why shouldn't Iran have the same right to defend itself?
35
I noted some comments digressed to the matter of the downed drone, and Trump's decision to stop the attack.
Trump definitely did NOT stop the attack because he was concerned with the deaths of 150 Iranians. If the draft evader could have killed one million and emerged victorious he would not have flinched. This is what Nixon and Johnson did in Vietnam, what Reagan did with his support of the Iraqi invasion of Iran, what ‘President Cheney’ did in Iraq, and what even Obama did in Libya, Syria and Yemen.
No, the real reason that this ‘cocky and bloated’ president stopped the attack was because he knew the U.S. and its allies would suffer unimaginable losses, far worse than the combined fatalities in the other 5 nations the U.S. attacked this century alone, either directly or by proxy. 20,000 dead Americans and a $300 oil price would not win him re-election: They would probably accelerate his impeachment and imprisonment on unrelated matters.
The sad irony is that it took a talk show host – Fox News’s Tucker Carlson -- to convince Trump not to fulfil the recommendations of the hardliners. That’s how ridiculously close we were (and still are) to war.
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@Hamid Varzi
Whatever we think of Mr Trump, and whatever went on in that organ residing between his ears, the world (for the wars waged by the US, like their intervention in WW2, have dramatic world-wide consequences) should be glad he took the right decision for whatever reason. Even a "small" war is a political, social and ecological disaster. And Americans should know that by now.
7
@Hamid Varzi indeed you are spot on
9
@Bill George
Agreed, and we can sigh with relief today. But there's a bunch of tomorrows coming all with white knuckle decisions to be made, and by who exactly? Faux hosts?
2
President Trump’s approach to foreign affairs is much the same as his approach to women (viz. the story in today’s Times), based solely on his own needs/appetites with no thought of the other party’s well-being or interests and with no regard to the consequences.
At least he’s listening to Tucker Carlson, and heaven help me for saying that.
21
Trump likes to start fires for attention and then pretends to be the only hero firefighter to extinguish them.
Most Americans haven’t figured him out yet and waste time analyzing his firefighter uniform instead of the message on the wall.
Trump put out a show to scare and force Iran to meet him. Something Obama didn’t do therefore a win for Trump. Also,
he wanted to show his supporters that he is tough, all business and Iran made a mistake messing up with him and his ego.
He never listens to intelligence, generals or anybody. His heroic last minute intervention was planned because assessing the target and the number of casualties should never be a last minute information. 150 is very specific number and such attack could not predict an exact number of casualties
9
"Hawks who were completely wrong about Iraq should refrain from jingoism about Iran."
Hawks who were completely wrong about Iraq should totally and completely be ignored for the rest of their lives, if not prosecuted and thrown in prison. There has to be some sort of penalty for one of the biggest foreign policy screwups in American history that caused needless misery and death to hundreds of thousands of people, and cost American taxpayers over a trillion dollars and counting.
56
The November 03, 2020 election is one of the most important in many different ways, Please educate yourself and your family and friends. Remember the people who fight war are our youngest men and women. We're all Americans, no red and no blue, but Americans.
Please vote in 2020 with our Republic first in your minds.
10
Trump also needs to tone down his rhetoric about Iran, particularly about lumping them with terrorists like Al-Qaeda. He has found it expedient to treat Iran as some kind of existential threat to the West. But the hyperbole is just that. Trump's language is coming back to haunt him and the rest of us. Words do matter.
6
And for goodness sakes construct a rational EXTERNAL decision making process to counter the self-evidently irrational, even impulsive, INTERNAL chaos that is the brain of Donald Trump.
3
@Paul McGlasson
May I add "primitive lizard brain of..."
The first point is unquestionably true. The second point is surely already underway and must happen to ensure safe passage of oil and gas. The third point is absurd, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are traditional systems of government that at least have the virtue of stability. Do you really want to experiment with Jeffersonian democracy there?. The fourth point is a none-starter, there will be no secret talks because the only thing that will bring the Islamic Republic back to the table is if it is given a free hand in the region plus billions of oil dollars to play with, like the glory days of Obama
1
More staging than a backlot in Burbank, especially with Vlad, Tucker and Tucker’s three bosses. The movie theme could be that ‘80s track going something like “making love out of nothing at all”.
2
Based on the reporting behind Trump's flip-flop on the military strike, it appears that things have come down to this: will Trump listen to Tucker Carlson or Sean Hannity? Carlson is against a strike and Hannity is in favor. We have to hope that Carlson carries the day.
How pathetic has the US become when talking heads on a third- rate TV network are effectively running foreign policy?
52
@Lucy
Actually, it's the poll projections that are now running our "policies" and actions. Trump is trying to look like what he isn't - a statesman and true leader.
"Clarify the location of the drone?" According to Iran it was in its airspace. According to US it was 3.5 minutes away form its airspace. So our choices are either (a) we violated their airapace or (b) we peovoked them into believing we were about to do that. Either way, we showed our hand, as always. Aggression/provocation/claiming victimhood. Like yelling and kicking sand to the umpire in baseball and then complaining when one is kicked out.
5
I'd much rather hear about the attention to detail paid to maintaining his tan and coiffure. It's astonishing. I don't listen to a word he says. Mostly just wonder what he'd look like au natural. Hideous, I think.
4
While other presidents read briefing and Intelligence reports and listen to experts who have studied the region for years, President Trump is uneducable and listens to his “gut” which doesn’t read or know anything either.
5
Trump is truly the boy who cried wolf. Why on earth does anyone believe anything this conman says?
This is simply one more episode in which he paints himself into a corner so that he can, last minute, get out, pop out and become, voila! The Hero.
Or did someone recount to him the tale of Croesus hearing the Delphic Oracle declare that in a war against the Persians “a great empire shall fall”? Too late: this American empire fell when it wrongly elected the bragging Midgetman Trump.
Everything about this person is an echo of morality tales that are eons old and still there are people who have not learned the lessons.
3
I'm increasingly pessimistic that there will be any good outcome of this - especially because of this "maximum pressure" tactic. The sanctions imposed by the United States don't seem much different than a blockade or a siege, a casus belli, a provocation to war.
Just like a blockade, the U.S. sanctions are meant to starve, economically or literally, its adversary into submission. That the U.S. withdrew from a multilateral accord with Iran and now unilaterally seeks to dictate to both friend and foe alike their trade relations with Iran makes the United States look ever more the aggressor in all this.
If the hawks in the White House prevail and things go, in military jargon, from "left of boom to right of boom" America will fight on its own. I can't think of any other country that would sign on to a war with Iran.
I don't think Iran will submit to Donald Trump. They withstood years of war with Iraq so they're not about to roll over for him.
And with so much military hardware crowded into a small geographic area - things that blow up will bump into each other sooner or later.
Where's the offramp for either side?
3
even when Kristof is saying to back off from war, it almost sounds like he is sad we aren't bombing Iran.
1) He says it is "understandable" Iran would be upset over violation of it airspace, like "USA has the right to violate your airspace but yes, I get it, you would not like it". Nowhere does he mention that it is United States that chose not to honor the deal it got into, namely the Iran nuclear deal, and if we were still honoring it, we wouldn't be having these conversations about war.
2) Nick is trying very hard to still make Iran look like the aggressor by saying Iran wouldn't be disrupting oil tankers if we present a united front. As if we already have proof it was Iran who did it. Not to mention the pressure of sanctions is reason they are making desperate moves assuming they even did it.
5
"It’s essential that we clarify the location of the U.S. drone that Iran shot down"
Upon further consideration, no, no it's not.
(a) If it was *just* a camera drone, then the war budget can, unfortunately, pay for another millions of times over;
(b) if it were an *armed* drone, like our military has used in the past, then Iran had every right to defend its sovereignty and people and our military had it coming;
(c) it's hard to tell which of (a) and (b) a given drone is at first glance; and
(d) such small loss of mere property is not worth losing sleep, let alone soldiers, over.
I hear Iran says it was a mistake—I doubt it and instead believe it a wrist-slap to the US for reneging on the deal, though I'm not on the ground there, or the sea for that matter, to know—but that's irrelevant. Given the above, the problem is better solved by applying Elsa's Principle: let it go.
3
Great writing Nick, and I agree with all. You've stated the situation correctly:
"Trump seems to inhabit a fantasy world in which his abandonment of the Obama nuclear deal with Iran, along with sanctions and bellicose tweets, will force Iran to roll up its nuclear program. Instead, Trump’s tactics have, quite predictably, led Iran to lash out."
Once, a Nobel laureate physicist shared with me an incident in his graduate school years when he wanted to work on a famous, hard problem. HIs advisor deprecatingly admonished, "It's a great problem but it would take someone really smart to solve it." The Middle East problem needs somebody smart to work on it. That's *not* trump.
And your four steps for rational engagement are very well taken, and trump should try to understand them.
For our next president (hopefully a Democrat in 2020 with a Democratic congress so we can clean the Republicans' filthy slate), he or she is going to have to work on a serious restructuring of U.S. relations in the Middle East... from the ground up.
We can't have drones careening in the area in the same way that trump is a loose cannon. Anyone with any common sense knows that they serve as lightening rods.
For their military records (Pompeo is USMA, but seems to have learned little there, Bolton avoided Vietnam in the National Guard as did Bush), Bolton and Pompeo provide little advisory capacity, but trump doesn't listen anyway. It's a mess. Hopefully they'll listen to you, Nick.
3
Trump did the right thing. It was the only moral, ethical, justifiable choice, and he made it. For once.
2
The fantasy world that Kristof describes is the one he occupies. Kristof has embraced the Chamberlain model for world peace, the one that brought us WW2. He supported the Obama model, which failed to use the economic and military leverage that the US has to get a deal with Iran. Instead he walked lockstep with the European leaders who have forgotten the Chamberlain model. Obama didn't want to offend Germany or France, both of which had economic ties to the oppressive and murderous regime that is Iran.
What history has shown us, whether it is from Ancient times or a more recent era, is that military intervention should never be removed from the table. Our own failure to contain Japan as it cut a murderous swath through China in the 30's shows what occurs when no military threat is tendered with any other deal. Japan believed that we would not fight a war with them and this embolden them to strike us at Pearl Harbor.
History is replete with examples of failure in leadership when it comes to confronting evil.
Jimmy Carter is solely responsible for the current problem. When our embassy was attack by elements of the new regime in Iran, which is an act of war, he got weak-kneed and failed to strike back at Iran. He colored us a paper tiger and allowed the repressive Islamic regime to fester and spread throughout the Middle East. Imagine instead he had ordered our military to attack and degrade the military and oil industries of Iran. We wouldn't be talking about a nuclear Iran.
1
@Mike: You are absolutely correct. Vietnam and Iraq were totally successful wars.
3
@Mike Actually, Eisenhower has a great deal to do with our problems there, certainly more than Carter.
@Mike,
I guess you'd call your way of thinking " Old School"? I think we should all wake up and try some new ways of solving problems. Placing the blame for the current instability in the Middle East at Jimmy Carter's feet is irresponsible. Peace Be With You !
1
Trump won over the people of Iraq with his decision. They realize their deadly enemy is their own government.
And yes, if the Iranian government starts taking American life, President Trump will take that smirk off their faces once and for all.
Well done, Mr. President.
1
@tbs Ah yes. That is what the bad guys always do, smirk, just like Dr. Evil - just before Austin Powers swoops in to save the day. OMG.
Thank you Mr. Kristof. I’m slightly less depressed after reading your common sense.
I’m very afraid that the Trump madness is building to something really bad.
8
Me too! @Roy Hartling
It will be difficult to organize an international response. Our European allies are still parties to the Iran Nuclear deal, and they do not like or trust Trump. He has destroyed the good will Obama was able to recreate after the disaster of the Iraq War.
22
It would be great if Mr. Trump read Nicholas Kristof's excellent commentary. Unfortunately, instead he seeks advice from Tucker Carlson. The only reason he stopped the strike was because Carlson told him it would endanger his reelection. Of course, as usual, it is all about him while people suffer and other countries hold us in even less esteem. Listen to the people who know something about Iran, please!!! And follow their advice.
13
How about urging Mr. Trump to re-sign the nuclear deal with Iran that he unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of, lifting sanctions on that nation, and firing John Bolton? These strategies might reduce the risk of war.
As to war being "sometimes necessary", we've failed time and time again in our endless wars, including those in the Middle East. Maybe we should cut our military budget in half and think more strategically about our serious, unmet, domestic needs.
39
@Ellen
The US needs more people like you, Ellen. It gives me hope to know that there are sane, rational people with a world view. It makes the monthly fee I pay for the NYT worth it.
2
@D. Epp
Thank you for the compliment. I've been against our "foreign policy" - for the most part - since the Vietnam War. Instead of being the "world's police", entering/meddling in the affairs of others to retain our advantage as "leaders of the free world", we should use our power and wealth for goals that help the entire planet, not just our plutocrats.
2
Lets face it. Most of Mr. Trumps actions and those of his supporters in congress, Mr. McConnell are you listening, are aimed at wiping Mr. Obama's place in history. To make it seem his presidency never happened. And now we have SCOTUS likely turning around legal presidencies of the last 50 years just because they can.
5
It wasn’t the 150 Iranian lives that concerned Trump, that was a cover story, a lie Trump created to make him appear sound and reasonable.
Someone woke him up and informed him that a strike inside Iran would trigger a war. A war fought by Iranian militias, attacking our troops in Syria and Iraq. Attacks that would’ve forced the U.S. into another shooting war in the Middle East.
Does anyone believe that the air strike would’ve ended Iranian belligerence?
Trump created this mess and appears clueless and without a strategy going forward. But today we can all breathe a sigh of relief that Trump listened to top Presidential Advisor Tucker Carlson.
89
@John Adams
Yes, and the convincing line from Carlson was that trump would lose re-election if he starts a war. That's what this is really about - ratings.
20
@John Adams
That someone who woke Trump up, was of course, Putin.
4
@John Adams, it’s all truly bizarre. Four star generals, admirals, covert intelligence agents surround trump, and a tv personality calls the shots. trump festered amongst wrestlers, celebrities and hookers, so I guess it stands to reason, that’s the extent of his intellect.
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The fact that there is controversy about what airspace the U.S. drone was in tells me that the U.S. was performing a little dare, and the Iranians didn't blink. Bolton and company know exactly what they are doing, but that doesn't mean it's prudent. Would anyone really put this past the administration?
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The US is already fighting wars in seven different countries, and Trump and the GOP(his party) are fighting a trade war with China, Mexico, Canada, Europe, and India(and any country that can challenge the US's economic and military superpower status). Why not go to war with Iran as well then ? The neocons in the GOP and Trump have been looking for an excuse to go to bomb iran for a long time now. It was no surprise that they pulled out of the nuclear agreement with Iran without warning.There are only about 170 more countries left on the planet, other than Russia to go to war with. Putin has Trump and his party, and it's base, roughly half of America, under his thumb. They won't mess with Putin.Trump is trying to topple Venezuala's leader while praising North Korea's dictator and Putin.
Trump has never had to deal with a crisis so far.The economy, which recovered well under Obama after the mess the republicans created with their weak govemment, and was doing fine by 2016, has continued to do well in spite of Trump and the huge GOP tax break for billionaires.The tax break came at the expense of California and New Jersey(hit by the SALT limit), and has drilled an ever widening hole in the fiscal deficit,with no benefit for anybody else.Our kids and grandkids will pay higher taxes. A US recession created by Trump is around the corner,and the war drums are beating. It is only a matter of whether going to war to Iran will get Trump votes in 2020. Let the Fed deal with the rest.
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Thank you for your thoughtful analysis on such a complex and increasingly perilous crisis. Unfortunately there is little to no chance that this dysfunctional administration will consider let alone implement any of your suggestions.
Our biggest problem is that we engage in military conflicts with limited impact for the majority of Americans, which is why so many of us are disengaged. Until our leaders send the country to war this pattern will continue. I favor a restoration of the draft and a war gas tax. Yes, this will hurt, but war should mean suffering and sacrifice. It should not be entered into without careful strategizing. Just ask the Romans.
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If we want to change Iran, then we should support the right of women there to choose or not choose to wear the hijab without fear of having acid thrown in their faces, imprisonment, or death. That's the first step to improve quality of life for women. Such support would put us squarely on the side of the majority of the people and be a real thorn in the side of the leaders.
It's better than thinking a war against a country with nearly 4 times the area and 3 times the number of people as Iraq will turn out any better.
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Iran is much more liberal than much of the rest of the Islamic world when it comes to the things you mention. Acid attacks also occur at a much higher rate in many places in the world, and they don't just coincide with the wearing of a hijab, nor are they aimed just at women. Yes, we should support liberalisation in regard to human rights in Iran, but let's not portray them as being worse than the rest of the Arabic world simply because we are allied with other factions of that world.
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Of all the destructive things Trump has done since taking office, two in particular filled me with despair: abrogating the nuclear deal with Iran and pulling the U.S. out of the Paris climate accord. Both actions were taken for all the wrong reasons and the eventual consequences were easy to predict. We are already seeing that his Iran policy has painted us into a corner; it will take longer for people to fully appreciate how tragic was his decision on the Paris agreement.
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@fbraconi And his decision to pull out of the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement should be added. Strategically, it was the worst since it was a huge gift to China in the trade competition.
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@fbraconi
Please add his ridiculous cancelling of NAFTA and the Trans Pacific trade agreements, snuggling up to Putin and Kim Jun Un both of whom are smarter than Trump and particularly dangerous.
Trump is a very dangerous man with the inability to control his anger and without the intelligence to listen to the right people in his administration - a few as they are.
Trump is the greatest threat to the security of the U.S.
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It's true the U.S., would instantly shoot down an Iranian drown over U.S. airspace, but it's also far from clear that Americans believe other countries have the same right, or have *any* right of self-defense. Our cause is so just, resistance is deemed to be a crime, or terrorism.
And while the crew of the U.S.S. Vincennes claimed not to know it was shooting down an civilian Iranian airliner, other U.S. commanders in the area looked on with incredulity as the ship locked on what was obviously a passenger plane.
The fact is, we've been at war with Iran since the revolution. And by the standards we'd apply to others, have committed terrible crimes against civilians who are powerless to change their government and have more reason to hate it than we do.
But being exceptional and all, who cares?
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@jrd and what started the Iranian revolution was a revulsion over how the US had deposed their elected president, installed the shah, a peacock on a peacock thrown, whose pea brain thought the way to lead the nation was to spend the country's wealth on shiny new gee whiz war planes from the US which he liked to be photographed flying. That every force has an equal and opposite reaction is a verifiable historical truth. We started this insanity and have been prompted every step of the way by Israel, whose paranoia is understandable after Germany, but serves no higher or lasting purpose than continuing the cycle of waste, saber rattling, bloodletting and not one of our three countries serves their people first.
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Another day, another crisis, another All-Trump-All-The-Time news cycle.
Saturday is supposed to be a day of rest.
So I’m going to play Spelling Bee, Letter Boxed, Tiles and Sets.
And then I’m going outside for a walk, or work on my model railroad.
And after a good nights sleep, I’ll read Maureen Dowd’s column on whatever she decides to write about. Assuming it’s Trump’s dangerous impetuousness, I’ll appreciate the razor-sharp snark
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We do not need the oil from the Middle East. We have proved time and again that we do not know what we are doing in this part of the world. Whatever dictator of the moment will need the oil revenue, so, it will flow. Just get out of this area. Now.
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The obvious way to respond is through additional economic damage to Iran. What we're doing now is having its intended effect; we just need to do more. Untraceable cyber attacks on their power grid would be a good place to start. As for Iran's claim that it's falling apart because it can't trade with the USA and the west, let it trade with its good friends and neighbors Turkey, and Pakistan, or through the Caspian sea with the Russians. Big markets, plenty of customers for their fruits and plastics.
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@O'Brien
Some Americans just love to see other people, principally civilians. suffer. And evidently deny the right of self-defense to other nations.
What would you say if the rest of the world imposed sanctions on the U.S., for the invasion of Iraq or for general belligerence?
"No fair"?
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This assumes Trump wants to prevent a war with Iran.
Trump will do whatever is best for Trump. He doesn't care if we go to war or not, as long as it helps his polling numbers.
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While acknowledging your sentiments, the only step I agree with is No. 4:
4. Seek secret talks with Iran to patch back together the nuclear agreement.
The secret agreements should include the immediate lifting of all sanctions. You imposed them unilaterally. Now lift them unilaterally.
Without the excuse of sanctions the Iranian regime will be forced to reform from within. The 'siege mentality' will become irrelevant, and domestic critics will not be imprisoned or silenced on the grounds of a 'threat to national security'. Iran enjoyed substantial social, economic and political progress during the Khatemi era (1997-2005), and the Glasnost would have continued but for the torpedoing of those reforms by the Neocons and billionaire Zionists in the Dubya administration.
If you genuinely wish Iran to rejoin the international community you must lift sanctions as a sign of goodwill. Whether Trump is man enough to do so is another matter. If he can be a bosom-buddy pal to the radical Islamic nation that bombed the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, then why not with relatively secular and democratic Iran?
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@Hamid Varzi: I agree that sanctions should be dropped as a goodwill gesture; they always do more harm than good. Secret talks are an excellent idea. They have worked in the past, but the idea only works if the White House resident is someone who can keep secrets. Trump has shown the world many times that he can't do that. Instead, he lies, improvises, threatens, taunts, and throws tantrums. That behavior won't bring anyone to the negotiating table.
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@Hamid Varzi Hahmid, my thoughts exactly. In fact, my comment was to resurrect and strengthen the Iran Nuclear Deal. There is no denying that it was a step in the right direction. My hope is that Europe for the time being will disregard Trump's sanctions' threat against them. Europe must stand against Trump's misled ideology. It all goes back to that Iran Nuclear Deal. Warmongering thugs like Bolton fed on their boss's fragile psyche and weakness of character. All this and as of yet no Secretary of Defense...
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@Hamid Varzi
I agree with you and I apologize on behalf of the sane voters who are going to do everything we can to get rid of Benedict Donald.
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The only thing in which I have confidence is that Trump will do exactly the wrong thing at the worst time. How can a country with the destructive power of the United States leave the fate of the world in the hands of a single deranged man? Time to change the balance of power in our government.
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Whatever we, the ordinary folks say or hope, a "limited war" with Iran will commence just before the Republican convention in 2020. Trump will be the hero, who has shown remarkable restraint and "had to act" because of Iran's provocations. There will be appropriate cheer chants created for the attendees at the convention. Trump will be re-elected and will negotiate with Iran to stop the hostilities and expects to receive the Nobel prize.
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@Jerseyite: Your scenario assumes that the voting public does not see right through Trump's actions. I suspect that they do and will continue to do so. If Trump starts another mid-east war, he's toast in 2020. Too many people remember the Gulf of Tonkin, Vietnam in general, and, more recently, Iraq and Afghanistan. Only the dolts will be fooled this time, large though their numbers be.
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Trump should follow George Washington's advice to avoid foreign entanglements. (See "Farewell Address").
But he's in good company in avoiding Washington's advice. The Senate has a reading every year of the Address and very few show up. I guess they are too embarrassed to hear his advice about avoiding faction.
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As usual, Kristof is right on the money.
In a nuclear world, we simply HAVE to understand that the dynamic between two nations with presumed adversarial interests is an entity unto itself, with its own momentum veering either toward war, accidental or intentional, or toward the avoidance of war and the establishment of active initiatives toward friendly relations. We are hurting the 80 million Iranian people terribly with warlike sanctions supposedly aimed only at the leadership.
Hard liners on each side bring out the most bellicose impulses in each other, bouncing back and forth in a closed echo chamber.
But diplomats on both sides can seek the best impulses in each other and uncover common ground. Auden wrote "Those to whom evil is done/ Do evil in return . . ." Why can't the converse be true? In a nuclear world the latter and not the former MUST be emphasized.
Good that the president decided, for the moment, not to retaliate, on the basis that Iranians would be killed—a rare spark of humanity deserving praise and encouragement—but clearly we have a way to go to get past the simplistic temptation to a war which would solve nothing—nothing!—and could trigger something far worse which no one wants.
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“Here are four steps for Trump to take” Nicholas, in reply to your four steps.
1. When on high alert, inadvertent launch is always highly probable as in U.S. S. Vincennes. Only on Presidential orders or self-defense is insufficient when a perceived threat is seen.
2. Try to organize an international force… Who? No one trusts us anymore.
3. Disentangle the United States from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates… Impossible, Trump loves them too much.
4. Secret talks with Iran… Can’t happen. Iran now has the upper hand and sees us as weak. Would rather deal with EU, China, and Russia. And for good reason. We can’t be trusted.
The United States cannot be trusted by our own allies. And the Iranians know it.
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Maybe if Barak Obama established a back channel with Putin, Trump would stop taking his orders from Russia. Oh, if we’re that simple. Maximum pressure against a country that might otherwise be our natural ally, will only drive the situation down, ending badly, most likely.
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Step 1 - Resign as president.
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That’s step 2. Step 1 is Pence resigning. Then when Trump resigns Nancy Pelosi will automatically become President for the remainder of the term.
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I’m glad he pulled back from the brink. But it wasn’t because he thought the entire plan through. He’s just erratic and irrational. This time his indecisiveness came off the rails fortuitously. Just because an individual backs off from jumping off a roof, doesn’t mean they are no longer suicidal.
In this case, and trump is a case; the next time he feels the urge, I hope he doesn’t take our whole country with him. Let’s just hope he remains a sniveling coward, and more rational men and woman around him allow him to save face, and lives.
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@David J Please don't suggest that making a reasonable sane and praiseworthy decision is "cowardly". For trump that makes him feel weak, which could reinforce the pressure from his "war hawks" and send people like my grandson to be slaughtered for no good reason.
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@Beth Glynn, you can be quite sure trump is not listening to me...or you for any suggestion.
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Whether this is s Trump campaign strategy or just plain incompetence on his part, this situation is exactly what all the anti-Trump people are-anti Trump about.
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Is there ever a clear-minded strategy about ANYTHING with Trump?! His shoot from the lip and hip reactions present a danger to the United States and the world as long as he is in office.
Can someone (Congress?) please do something before something disastrous happens because of this child in charge?
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@LF Congress can do something when the repub majority in the Senate decide to put country over party, or when the Senate becomes majority Democrat like the House.
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Absolutely not to your suggestion: "1. Ensure that U.S. forces fire only in clear self-defense or on presidential orders, to reduce the risk of an accident." The power to take the USA to war - "...on presidential orders..." - is not a power with which this president can be entrusted.
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If trump cancelled the strike with ten minutes to go when he found out about casualties, then he didn't read or hear or digest or process or understand the military plan when it was presented to him, because those always contain casualty assessments.
Or he's lying.
Or, as always with him, both.
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@Diego
Or one of the EU intelligence agencies threatened out the lie about where the drone was shot down: the drone was in the Iranian airspace.
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@Diego
Trump stopped the attacks because they would not have been "proportionate" to the crime, which was the downing of an "unmanned" drone.
Don't you wish every president had used such excellent logic, judgment -- and do I dare say, empathy -- when about to wield the enormous, unprecedented power of US military might?
I certainly do.
Trump's no-go decision makes him orders of magnitude more sensible and moral than his immediate Republican predecessors. Yet your comment, Diego, plus the legion of NYT readers who recommended your nasty take on a noble act, prefer to find fault with Trump rather than acknowledge a thoughtful act of mercy.
Has your hatred of him has caused you to lose your collective minds?
Would you prefer Bush-Cheney, who dropped a one ton pound bomb in an attempt to kill Saddam Hussein in a restaurant, but instead missed the mark, killing civilian Iraqis in the vicinity? Would you prefer the thousands of dead Iraqis chalked up as collateral damage for WMD’s that did not exist?
Yes, Trump's heavy hand with sanctions and his abrogation of the Iran deal is forcing Iran to push back. But until now, irrevocable harm -- loss of life -- has been avoided.
If the anti-Trump forces are so deranged that they cannot appreciate 150 lives spared, prefering instead to mock and taunt him, then count me out.
Here's hoping Buttegeig and perhaps Sanders will have the decency and wisdom to acknowledge Trump's change of heart.
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@Gluscabi
When Trump ordered the attacks, they were disproportionate to the shooting down of an unmanned drone. That there would be Iranian casualties would've been obvious to anyone but Trump.
Further, this crisis was exacerbated in the first place by Trump pulling out of the agreement with Iran without any real strategy.
20
Can someone tell me again why we need to ensure Middle eastern oil is protected in transit? How many taxes does Saudi ARAMCO pay to the U.S.? Our dependence on oil from the Middle East is under 16%. There are other sources for oil - Canada, Mexico, the U.S.
Starting another never ending war in the Middle East is beyond ridiculous, and the left needs to applaud Trump is his decision not to bomb Iran. And the right needs to remember that wars cost money. If liberals are the tax and spend party, then Republicans are the "don't tax but still spend party". Afghanistan was, and continues to be a terrible waste of money, same with Iraq. We don't need a war with Iran, even if the Saudis, Israel, and the hawks on Capitol hill are pushing for it to stimulate spending in their districts.
I partly support Trump because he claimed he wanted to disengage from Syria and Iraq and Afghanistan. If he is listening to Israel and Saudi Arabia and starts a new war I will be very disappointed.
7
@Donald Driver. Disappointed?
13
@Donald Driver and you believe he wants to disengage with Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. C'mon, he has proved many times that he cannot be trusted on anything.
HE warmongers in the middle east and the Korean peninsula at the same time when he strips very young children from their parents at the southern border.
The man (???) is unhinged, cruel and totally incompetent.
2
This whole cancellation of the strike 10 minutes before it was to take place smells of what I’ve pointed out in these pages before- Trump sets himself up to look like the hero where there’s no space to be one.
I could be way off base here, but this is following a pattern he has long established. But if I’m right, having war planes in the air minutes before Trump makes his “big, great, beautiful” announcement is carrying his new-found strategy light years beyond playing chicken with Congress.
November 2020 cannot come soon enough, for me, my country and this world.
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There were never going to be retaliatory air strikes. Its possible the drone was in or very close to Iranian air space. Its possible the drone was in international air space but shot down by a "rogue" commander. In any event air strikes on Iranian bases are certainly not "proportional" and are guaranteed to escalate the conflict.
Trump put planes and other assets in the region so that he could say "See, I'm a reasonable guy and really don't want to go to war with Iran.".
Demand, threaten, then back down is classic Trump. Trump's a bully and like most bullies won't fight. But his NSA John Bolton would love nothing more than to bait the Iranians into a conflict so we can attack Iran's nuclear program.
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“In each of these cases, Trump pursued aggressive tactics without any obvious strategy“
Therein lies the rub. The old goals of peace and prosperity have withered into nostalgic notions we can barely even remember.
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