Since you have been to Iran and detained, you know the score. So why don't you play it fair and refer to the regional crisis Iran is causing by arming Hezbollah with 150,000 missiles aimed at every Israeli city, has its own arsenal of long range missiles, is arming Hamas and supporting Houthis with the billions of dollars they got from the nuclear deal and they support terrorism throughout the world.
Israel is not going to sit around while another 6 million Jews are attacked and we will be in WWIII, courtesy of Iran, unless we act intelligently with strength - with Trump blustering with the Ayatollah.
2
We know about the Tonkin Gulf incident and the phony WMDs in Iraq. There's another, largely forgotten precedent: In 1988, the U.S. government went immediately into default mode --- denial --- when the USS Vincennes blew Iran Air Flight 655 out of the sky, killing 290 civilians. Pentagon said its ship was in international waters --- it wasn't --- and that the Iranian plane wasn't over Iranian territory --- it was. United States eventually had to settle the case at the International Court of Justice with a payment of $62 million.
7
"Remember the Maine", Gulf of Tonkin incident, "weapons of mass destruction". Maybe we should all rewatch "Dr Strangelove". Need I say more!
7
The U.S. is an Imperialist bully. It reneged on the nuclear deal and is strangling the Iranian economy with relentless sanctions.
And it is on the path to provoking war with Iraq goaded on by Saudi Arabia and Israel represented by John Bolton.
The ones who suffer most from U.S. wars of Empire are the people of the invaded country. Consider the terrible price the Iraqi suffered as a result of the U.S. Invasion.
Because of American national chauvinism the lives of those Iraqis who were killed, maimed, or died from dysentery are
rarely if ever acknowledged.
The U.S. is the guilty party here and it is shameful for Kristof to
imply otherwise. Iran is in the way of U.S. dominance in the Middle East and the U.S. wants to bring them to heel.
If the U.S. invades Iran it will be the Iranian people who will suffer the brunt of another U.S. “adventure”.
5
Let me guess.... Iran has weapons of mass destruction too!
Oh boy! Here we go again. Another GOP manufactured war/conflict.
The Republican Party cannot function without starting a war or inciting some foreign nation to solidify its narrow minded base.
Iran did not tear up the nuclear deal- DJT did!!
This is the same DJT that launched missiles early in his presidency and forgot what nation we had fired upon.
He cannot be trusted with any national security duties and certainly nothing that has to do with military action.
Nothing!
7
Nick, I think what you fail to appreciate is that we are the US of T!
We are now, the United States of Trump and Trump trumps, all.
If the President wants a war with Iran, it is his decision to make.
If we, the people don't want a war, we must go to war with Trump.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump's dictatorship may cause a new democratic wave, now.
Let us dump Trump, before he has a chance to dump democracy.
Nick and the NY Times please consider the "Democracy" song:
"Democracy is coming to the USA" (Leonard Cohen, 1992)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
3
"Another Middle East war is the last thing we need."
Yes, but the only thing left that America can actually do is prosecute war.
Raytheon, Harris, GE, General Dynamics, and all the military contractors are the only companies left that have not outsourced all their labor and manufacturing.
So, the only thing America can do is prosecute war.
And, that has been the case for quite a while.
6
I don't know how many of you remember Bush 43, and his administration talking to the country about Iraq. To me, it was obvious, just from their body language and the words they used to describe the threat Saddam H posed to the U.S. that they were lying and they knew it. Powell, giving his speech to the U.N. was visibly uncomfortable with the words he was given to say, Cheney was lying through his teeth but didn't seem to be bothered by that. I told my friends during the runup to that war what was going on , they didn't believe me and now look where we are. The saddest part is here we are again, this is a self generated catastrophe, and we will be much the worse for it. I wish I could ignore the sorrow this news is forcing upon me. The people who will bear the greatest portion of this disaster are those families who have supported the madman in the oval office, may they come to their senses and try to stop this before it starts.
10
On July 3, 1988, the USS Vincennes shot down Iran Air flight 655 flying its normal route of Tehran to Dubai killing all 290 aboard including 66 children.
In 1953 the CIA arranged a coup that overthrew the elected socialist prime minister of Iran to serve continuing Western control of the petroleum industry through the shah. The shah's dictatorship led to the 1979 Islamic revolution. A week before the shah's removal the CIA assessed the shah to be in total control.
7
Amen Brother
2
i get it. you may not shoot down an american drone invading your airspace but you may chop an american journalist into pieces... it just depends on where your investments flow and who profits...
15
The one who has acted recklessly is the fool Trump and his incompetent advisors.
Trump is hell bent to drag us into another GOP war.
Trump has given Iran only one option and now they understand since the US can not be trusted, they need and they will soon have nuclear weapons.
Great job Trump insuring Iran will have nuclear weapons. Morally bankrupt Trump will do anything to distract us from his corrupt and criminal behavior.
8
@Steven
I wonder if the MQ-9 Reaper can deliver a W80-4 light (290 lb.) nuclear warhead??
After all, an SS-N-22 'ship killer' Sunburn can deliver a nuclear war-head, instead of HE.
1
Trump will start a war only to stay in office. His only concern is himself, not the troops he will send to die or the worldwide disruption he will create.
4
You mean we might be headed toward a war with Iran just as the 2020 presidential campaign is kicking off? Who could possibly have predicted such a thing? I guess it's time to take sides: Are you a patriot or a coward? Are you for the U.S. or are you a dupe of our enemies? Are you backing our President or those weak, cut and run Dems?
This could not possibly be a more cynical ploy.
5
Another shock and awe debacle, bell Bolton.
4
@northlander: Shock and dismay, more like it.
2
Only very bad things could come from a military conflict with Iran. Not even counting all the people who die. Iran has considerable conventional weapon capability, and the rest of the Middle East, even some Sunni factions, will back them. The final chapter will be instability that makes ISIS look like a bunch of Quakers. And the consequences will not respect borders.
6
Trump is the whiny, snooty child.
Iran is the angry, zealous parent that doesn't know how to be a good parent.
Both bambinos should be sent to their rooms without dinner, and let out only if they agree to apologize to each other -- and mean it.
(Of course, neither of these immature foes -- Iran and the U.S. -- Would mean it, which is what makes the persistent standoff between our two nations so "scary".)
1
While Trump goes on about Iran shooting down a US spy drone (which may or may not have been in Iranian airspace), lets not forget that the US Navy shot down an Iranian civilian airliner killing all on board, then defended its actions with barely an apology.
8
what right does the US have to impose sanctions on Iran or any other country especially when they are run by crackpot Trump.
Ignore his sanctions.
By the way this is the man who lies every time he opens his mouth.
8
We can kick and scream all we want, but we are going to war with iran. The signs are there from the onset, once bolton was picked, all of sudden there is classified briefing to congress, the same tactics again replayed and we have no say, but to watch out resources squandered in a stupid war, Not worth it
6
Given who we know the Saudi leader MBS to be, a cold blooded murderer who plotted the dismemberment of Kashoggi, a man who has his political opponents raped and tortured in prison, and who has murdered thousands of civilians using US weapons, it is quite possible that the tanker attacks are a false flag Saudi operation designed to entangle the US with Iran. Do we really have good evidence that the tanker attacks were done by the IRG?
6
Can't wait for the "Coalition of the Bullies"- US, Saudis and good ol' nuclear Israel. The American people must stand up against Trump and Bolton.
2
Where is Obama when we need him?
2
We're going to need more cemeteries.
"Where have all the soldiers gone"...
3
It's possible that Iran was behind the tanker attacks, but the fact that "knowledgeable Democrats" say so is neither here nor there. The NatSec wing of the Democratic Party just regurgitates whatever they are told by NatSec officials - this has always been the case. They form no independent opinion, therefore their opinion has no informational value.
1
Trump is riding the Game of Thrones dragon setting the world on fire and unlike bad real estate deals Trump cannot just walk away and go party at Mar-A-lAGO with fellow billionaires. Allies do not trust Trump ,60% of Americans do not trust Trump and our adversaries North Korea ,China and Russia thinks he's an ignorant buffoon easily played by telling him he's the prettiest president in history.
3
I think the president wants to be a War President in 2020. A feather in his MAGA cap.
2
News brief today in White House with Prime Minister of Canadian President Donald Trump seem frustrated or unhung , about shot down drome its probably had engines problems an crush.
Can see that its not John Bolton want War but President Donald Trump state mind that Dem's Nancy go alone with .
War Iran insane ideal that Donald Trump want more America Blood flow down are street Father , Mother ,Son, Daughter will meet ever go to funerals President Donald Trump no.
Remember President Donald Trump draft dodger.
At any point in time T will do whatever he thinks will appeal to his alt-right supporters, whether its in the nation's best interests or not and whether it is the same as what he said 15 seconds ago and will say tomorrow or not. Of course he can't remember anything, doesn't care to and won't read anything. But he always has Fox News to tell him what to say.
6
I'm guessing Trump didn't consider this eventuality when he ripped up the JCPOA, as his only thought was to punish Obama, consequences be damned!
11
Our 'relationship' with Iran did't start a year ago, with the Iraq war, or with the previous war with Iraq. We have been invoved with Iran for decades. And in order to appreciate the situation the U.S. finds itself today, you have to look at the whole picture. We tried to run their country when we installed the Shah. They overthrew him and they absolutely, positively don't trust the U.S.. Why should they? I am not suggesting we should apologize now and that should deescalate the situation. But Iran feels what we ultimately want is to control their country. They fear we want to invade their country and we want to eradicate Islamic people. Are those fears unwarranted? History would seem to support those fears. So the question is what would you do if you were Iran? And negotiations need to begin with an appreciation of where they are coming from. The other aspect of this is : so we destroy Iran. No one is thinking past that. Who would 'run' the country then? Israel? Saudi Arabia? Nope.. It would be the U.S. And that will go over how exactly with the Iranian people. Their fear all along realized. Maybe time to bring back Dick Cheney to tell us the Iranians will be dancing in the street in joy. Just like he said the Iraqis would.
6
The only thing we learn from history is that we don’t learn from history.
A few hundred years ago a country way across the ocean tried to tell us how to run our affairs. It took a seven year war to have more say in our governance. And we don’t learn from our own history because we’ve been making similar mistakes ever since. Take over of Hawaii, take over of the Southwest, take over of Cuba. And we’ve supported many an autocrat over local resistance.
6
"Another Middle East war is the last thing we need."
I agree. Now, let's look at one war that never ends. Israel and Palestine. The Palestinians launch a few rockets, Israel bombs a couple of buildings. That is called proportional response. If they break one of our windows, we'll break one of theirs.
The Palestinians can't and the Israelis won't, finish off their enemy. This can go on forever and likely will, since both are "home" teams.
The Iranians need to know our response will be hard and will end when WE decide to end it. Any other interpretation invites an ongoing and escalating situation.
The US should destroy the base from which the missile originated, the command an control center and supporting infrastructure. Then, destroy the base from which the the Iranian Navy sent the boats to attack the tankers.
At that point, the Iranians can decide how they should react. If they make the wrong choice, sink every Iranian ship in international waters and down every military plane in international airspace. (I'm being proportional).
The moral of the story, stupid is expensive.
"They’ve behaved recklessly and given themselves no face-saving escapes."
What is "reckless" Mr. Kristoff is your insistence to frame the situation as "Trump vs. Iran," when it is actually "the United States of America vs. Iran."
Otherwise, it would be much more fair of you to to describe the growing friction as between "Trump and Khamenei."
In this manner, Mr. Kristoff, we all can separate ourselves from reality as if leaders are completely removed from the citizens they lead.
3
In comparison to Iraq, Iran is three times the size and population. A 2003 Iraqi style of invasion by the U.S. did not work as (poorly) planned. And remember John Bolton had a hand in that. The Iranian urban youth may be looking for a more moderate government, but that does not mean that they would be acceptable of an American invasion or bombing of their country. And in Iran there in no one central figure to take out that would end any invasion.
Trump's well known motto is to make American great again. Instead he is doing the work of Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., and Israel, while he is smooching with the real threat of the U.S.: Kim Jong Un's threat to nuclear bomb American territory.
4
Trump has started his re-election campaign.
Trump’s red meat base should get ready to start burying their children, along with many innocent families on both sides of this emerging war.
6
Diplomacy please. Of course Obama's nuclear deal had to ripped up because, you know, Obama bad.
This is just such lunacy, but could prove very useful for The Donald, whenever he needs to get something off the front pages.
I would guess he will keep this on slow burn for a while, carefully lit, but not inflamed,for all sorts of occasions, of which he is going to have plenty before the election.
5
I'm not sure how you pin this on Trump. Before he became president, the relationship with Russia had deteriorated to the point that Russian military leaders were talking about the "nuclear option." Russian bombers came to a point just outside our territorial waters. North Korea developed nuclear bombs and the missiles to carry them at least to California. Iran possessed the makings for a nuke. With the money they got after the agreement they used inserted themselves in the turmoil of other countries all the while supporting terrorist organizations. Obama supported the over through of a government not pointing a BB gun at us, turning Libya into a breeding ground for terrorist. In Syria, Obama encouraged Iran to be there fighting ISIS. Now a country sworn to destroy Israel is a lot closer. It was during Obama's time that ISIS grew to controlled large portions of Iraq and Syria. These are what Trump inherited. During the last two years the hostilities between ourselves and Russia has had calmer waters. Even the NYT gave Trump the Credit for the defeat of the ISIS Islamic State. He sat down with Kim to work towards a nuclear free peninsular. Iran sent boats directly at our naval ships. We held back until they turned around. Now a couple of tankers have been attacked and our drone shot down. What does Iran think will happen? So far, no lives lost. But all bets are off if Americans get killed.
Nothing boosts a President's poll numbers like starting a war. Bush I and Bush II saw dramatic spikes in their numbers when they began their respective wars in the middle east. But their popularity quickly waned as Americans grew tired of those conflicts. If Trump times the next war just right, say late summer 2020, he likely wins reelection. Trump is utterly unconcerned about the costs of a war. The defense hawks, who simply love a good war, have the President's ear and his attention.
4
Mr. trump is going to find that all his Maximum pressure tactics don't work with Iran and he will find himself...and this country...on the business end of another war in the Middle East. Only this time we will have an even more bumbling idiot leading the charge. Trump doesn't know the first thing about war. He doesn't really want a war because it will only draw attention to another litany of reasons why he is supremely unqualified for the job he currently has. He thinks mximum pressure is the way to avoid war. He's so completely wrong when it comes to Iran...he's so completely wrong when it comes to most things.
5
The United States has won ONE war (Desert Storm coalition victory) post WWII. Nobody is afraid of the United States military, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan didn't and haven't rolled over. How are things going in Afghanistan at present?
We upended Iran in the 50's; the Iran you see today is a Britain and US creation. We invaded Iraq when everybody knew around the world knew Bush lying through its teeth. Iran had two centrifuges and started their nuclear program in earnest, after the Iraq invasion.
Donald Trump, Michael Pompeo, and John Bolden represent a desperate and paranoid America who see the sunsetting. For a nation who's always lived by gun... this may work in the US but the world isn't the US. The disastrous wars I've mentioned proves that.
5
This issue boils down to USA credibility. Trump has managed to shatter the good will of many USA allies. It would be almost impossible today to build an alliance of nations a la Bush the First (Gulf War-Kuwait -almost 20 years ago).
Trump has also created a scenario where there is a minute elbow room left for diplomacy AND there are no more smart grown-ups around. That’s what scares me.
3
We are no longer talking about Collusion. It is now Collision.
Mr. Kristof. Thank you for your Opinion. What is to be noted here, is that we are no longer talking about diplomacy. Not even a sign of any discussion with our Allies. If it is not there, then, it is understandable. Because, our Allies have given up on us.
The 2015, Nuclear Deal, we signed together with China, Russia and the EU, would have been the best approach to addressing our concerns with Iran. Between the time the Deal was signed, and the fifteen years after, there was time to evaluate, if Iran was continuing to comply.
Is going to war with Iran the only solution?
1
Why does the media accept our government's position as the truth?. If Iran had drones and a nuclear carriers of our coast maybe we might be trigger happy too. Only reason there is a potential conflict is from Trump's appeasement of Israel in canning the nuke deal. Now trump still wants Iran to abide by that nuke deal - what?.
5
This is how W got re-elected and donny is an even worse potus. It’s pretty simple.
4
Let me see...you said the Iranian regime is unpopular because of it's corruption, incompetence and repression. Leave out the repression part and you've named the good ole U.S.A.
(Repression to come at a later date).
5
This is on trump 100% - if he had stayed in the Iran deal, we would not be where we are now. Bolton wants a regime change... well so do we. Dump trump
6
The problem with crying wolf too many times is that, if and when he finally does show up, no one is going to listen
5
The last coup America created in Iran did not end well. Over 300,000 young men - Iraqi and Irani - died over an eight year period, fueled by our support for Saddam Hussein - the same ruler we later assassinated.
If America jumps in now, it will be clear; just as Cheney and others financially benefitted by the rebuilding of Iraq through Halliburton, the Trump and Kushner family will be reaping spoils from throwing their support to Saudi, Israeli and UAE interests.
And the collateral damage will be American blood and treasure.
58
@H.A. Hyde -- All true. Just to add, even though trxmp will blame Obama and Clinton (and Soros and any available Kennedy), any war with Iran will be entirely 110% *his fault*. The scariest thing of all is that it will help his poll numbers.
4
@H.A. Hyde
However misguided it may have been, U.S. support of Iraq vs Iran was not a coup. The last coup the U.S. sponsored in Iran was the overturn of the Mossadegh government in 1953. Further, at the time of the Iraq Iran war in 1980 everyone understood it was choice of a marginally lesser evil.
3
Nick Kristof, won't loss of life be the consequence of any collision course between Trump's America today and Iran?
Look at the immense losses of life and treasure since George W. Bush's demented wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
President Trump's administration has no Secretary of Defense and has had only an Acting Secretary since Gen. Mattis resigned as a wake-up call to the world about America's damaged foreign policy under this president. Yesterday, Mr. Shanahan withdrew his name from Trump's consideration as Secy of Defense.
The U.S. supported the Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlevi, until he was thrown over in 1979 and the revolutionary government of Iran today has devolved into a country that has been a thorn in Trump's side. Iranians vote (which they never did under the Shah) but hey, voting is a recognition of human rights that is absent from Saudi Arabia, one of Trump's most favored nations. Too many citizens don't bother to vote in America, which is why we are literally in the swamp with Donald Trump as the worst president in American history.
4
Trump's messaging leaves much to answer. Apparently the Saudi crown prince has carte blanche to kill Washington Post writers in the most gruesome way conceivable leaving Boulton et al as cheerleaders.
4
Only got through the first two paragraphs of this drivel before giving up. "Both" have behaved recklessly. Nonsense. Iran is in its death throes as a terrorist theocracy because President Trump has stood up to the theocratic dictators - something President Obama never would have done. Given time and help, the moderate middle-class in Iran will prevail.
A word of advice to members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard - don't stand to close to any boat, anti-aircraft artillery, tank, barracks, etc. this evening.
America has done everything to push Iran into retailating. We are the agressors who want to take down their government. Iran has done nothing to the US.
we need to get out now.
if you want regime change go ahead and fight for saudi arabia since it is their problem.
1
Nicholas Kristof has been a consistent supporter of deadly US regime change wars waged based on allegations of human rights violations. Had Pompeo, Bolton and Trump swindled the American people more skillfully this time - with less blood-lust, more restraint and believable tales of savagery - I have no doubt that Kristof would be yet another dove screaming for war.
The obsession with regime change wars is bipartisan in the United States. It is vital to recognize this when attempting to argue against such wars. The system must be changed, not just an administration.
2
I have been day trading crude oil futures 18 hrs a day, 5 days a week, for 9 years. I track and time oil tankers loading and unloading, how long they stay in port both empty or full, I parse ribbon-cutting speeches of third-level energy ministry officials, and through it all I watch order flow and price respond tick by tick. The American accomplishment in 2015 of creating oil self-sufficiency via frakking technology had a secondary impact on the house of Saud much worse than the subsequent overproduction and world price crash., It robbed Opec and thus the kingdom of it's treasured, decades-old capability of tuning market price, very quickly - either by jawboning or creating small violent clashes that could reliably be used to positively tune price within 20-25% without serious blowback for significant lengths of time. We're speaking of a nation here for which oil is the overwhelming source of national income. So, previously, helpfully, so long as the US remained both the primary customer for Saudi (M.East) crude and the world's center of gravity for news media creation and consumption (trust me, in no other western democracy can someone be bothered to watch cable news at 4pm) this jawboning or frightening of the market was extraordinarily efficient. This capability, that is to boost the entire national tax revenue by 25% within days of having decided to so has now been lost to the kingdom. Lost that is, until Trump could be persuaded to add US steel and blood into the mix.
3
We have become destabilizing, untrustworthy and repressive under the Trump Administration just like Iran
It won’t be long before our Western Allies will find that the United States is not worth backing.
The Congress needs to remove Trump now before we end up in a Nuclear War.
I hope they gave Trump the wrong Nuclear Code.
3
Trump has no need to save face - getting things right is not his style. Being found wrong, lewd, offensive, or inadequate is a way of life that works well for him.
It's inexplicable, but it is also true. Perhaps ordinary people simply identify with him, or they admire him because they wish they could do what he does and get away with it.
While others seek the high ground, he is happy to be the worlds number one bottom feeder - just so long as he has cash stuffed into his pockets.
4
Just out of curiosity, why do we think we have the right to command Iran to act in ways in which we fail to act? For example, I completely understand the risk of a nuclear Iran with the existing (but unadmitted) nuclear Israel, but why do we believe it is our right to enforce unilateral sanctions against a sovereign, legitimate (though reprehensible) government? They are not impacting us from the Middle East where we have already wasted thousands of lives and use of diplomatic pressure and agreement like Obama's 6 nations agreement seemed pragmatic and effective.
Also talk of acting through intermediaries is absurd for the US that has a long history of such tactics. Before we let Trump destabilize the world further while cozying up with known killers like those in Saudi Arabia, shouldn't we ask who died and made Trump king? If he wants to go to war, he needs to get Congressional approval or he should be impeached and removed for a clear violation of the Constitution.
Republicans have proven themselves exceptionally shortsighted, but surely even they see where this is going. They made this mess all by themselves, they need to clean it up!
2
Trump's critics have now become predictable apologists for regimes like North Korea and Iran.
No
cant stand either of them but right now Iran is more credible than trump
which is sad and frightening
3
Iran had no intention of fulfilling the flawed agreement it reached with Obama and the EU. Obama and his lackey, John Kerry, wanted an agreement, any agreement so that they wouldn't have to make the hard choices necessary. It was like watching a modern version of Neville Chamberlain proclaiming peace in our age.
Iran is a terrorist organization that uses its Nation as a platform to export it's version of Islam, it's version of it's World View and also engages in oppression of it's own people. It has directed resources to attack Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United States, and any other country that dares to oppose them. They are the country that has assisted North Korea to develop it's missile technology and in exchange, has received guidance to make it's own nukes.
Obama and past administrations failed to fully confront Iran and bring their despotic and violent regime to an end. Instead it has only given them additional breathing room to develop their nukes.
Iran showed it's hand when it announced it would further purify it's uranium stockpiles to surpass what is needed to operate it's laughably labeled peaceful nuclear power program. This fully meant that they had already increased the number and sophistication of their centrifuge program in violation of the agreement and intended to develop nuclear weapons anyways.
Now is not the time to get weak in the knees. Now is the time to fully confront, even if it means war, to take down Iran. Later will be too late.
Europeans would be in the streets if any of their leaders behaved as belligerently as Trump, Inc. does. What's wrong with us!?
1
The best response is not a military response. Increase the sanctions even further. They are having a dramatic effect on the Iranian economy and are working. Every time Iran lashes out, sanctions should be tightened further. In this case, economic sanctions are more effective than military action.
1
Given Trump's unnecessary and unsuccessful trade wars with China and elsewhere that are already hurting Americans and others, further destabilization of the Middle East, especially if oil flow is interrupted, will likely lead us into another global depression. Thanks, Trump!
3
Nick casually leaves out the fact that Iran is the leading source of funds for terrorists in the region and that funding increased dramatically after Obama made his deal. By the way, that deal wasn't going to be easily verified and at best it was kicking the can down the road. Iran, with a huge supply of oil, has no need for nuclear reactors to build nuclear power plants. To think that that's what they are up to is laughable.
Obama made a bad deal. It wasn't a bad idea to try to get Iran to negotiate away their nuclear capability but to think they'll give it up easily is misguided.
I don't want boots on the ground in Iran. But if they keep this up I'd support sinking their navy and hitting their infrastructure. And let them know if they keep up their bad behavior Tehran will become a target.
1
I don’t know where you derive your information from, Ralphie, but you’re wrong. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, the US, UK and France are among the world’s largest state sponsors of terror. The detrimental impact of their funding and arming of terrorists on global security - including America’s - is far worse than any minor effect a hemmed-in, impoverished, Shia-oriented Iran could have. Ironically, it is these very states that are engaged in a perpetual and bloody “War On Terror” with little good (and much bad) to show for it. Journalist Max Blumenthal documents this tragic phenomenon well in his recent book, “The Management of Savagery”.
3
US, under Trump's leadership, seems to be looking for a fight with Iran, or if not Iran, then some other country.
I fear that Trump will create or exaggerate some kind of disaster in the coming year to garner support for reelection in 2020. Even if the Trumped-up disaster costs human lives.
After 9/11, there was strong support for NY mayor Giuliani remaining in office for another after the disaster. He had not been very popular before then. "Don't change horses in mid-stream" seemed to be the mood.
The movie Wag the Dog demonstrated very well how a trumped up false war could win votes. I hope the movie was just fiction.
3
NO MORE STUPID WARS
16
"Haven’t we learned lessons? Maybe “real men” should forget about going to Tehran and try multilateral diplomacy."
Unfortunately the real men (those who don't go around telling everyone they are real men) have yet to stand up. All we have seen so far is husks of insecurity filled with childish behavior and braggadocio. Attention-seekers beating their empty chests.
7
Nick, was a drone really shot down, if so did it violate Iranian air space. How do we know what is truth anymore with the trump administration. Sad to say but I am inclined to believe the Iranians.
10
As a related aside: How can we stop global warming and the deaths of myriad species when we've the awful and uneducated and selfish luddites here and popping up everywhere else - ? I am beginning to disagree with H.G. Wells that a crises threatening the planet would unite us all. When a country breaks an oath (treaty) we are trouble, when money usurps moralities we are in trouble, when one cannot sit down with one's neighbors and discuss their differences and, their common interests we are in trouble. Oh -The U.S. dropped nuclear bombs -= only we. "Soylent Green's a'comin!"
2
Do not group the US President together with the rogue countries. It's betrayal against the US people who the President represents for.
Do not try to cross the line. Restless behavior just reveals the flaws in your mind.
1
Believe it or not, about 20,000 of our president's "enlightened" followers gathered a few days ago in downtown Orlando to help him launch his 2020 reelection campaign. And the bulk of this crowd, of course, was of blue-collar extraction. Which begs the question: is this the wave of the future and are we going to be governed by know-nothing, simple-minded egomaniacs similar to Donald Trump, and elected by enabling crowds such as this? Never mind, we think we already know the answer.
3
If would could not trust Bush 43, Cheney and Rummy to tell the truth, how can we possibly trust Trump, Pompeo and Bolton? Our foreign policy has been outsource to Saudi Arabia Israel, and we have long since lost our creditability.
8
"Another Middle East war is the last thing we need."
If you are a President that is being threaded with impeachment, this may not be true.
2
And what evidence is there that Iran's Republican Guard wants an off ramp? Their country would be an overpopulated disaster case even if they had that Nuclear Deal; they're aging; they know they won't be leaving this world with any great accomplishments for their nation. Warfare involving all those increasingly secular young Iranians may suit them very well.
I just heard an American intelligence operative say flatly that an attempt was made to assassinate him in Iraq by Iranian operatives; he survived, other Americans did not. Congress has veterans who say they mourn friends who died after attacks by Iranian supplied militia in Iraq. The British have a very clear understanding of freedom of navigation; when they acknowledged us as the new superpower, after the Suez conflict, it was the understanding that the sea lanes remained free. The US Navy has a very clear memory of their sailors on their knees, hands on their heads. Anyone who wants an off ramp should be asking the Iranians to change their behavior.
1
The war started 3 months ago with the logistics ramp up. Usually 6 to 9 months between initial ramp up and generation of narrative requiring military activity.
2
Most Europeans have no illusions about Iran, but the certitudes they have about what the US have turned into are obviously what is the most frightening. The French see the present manoeuvers ( in all meanings of the word)as maybe even more potentially catastrophic than what they had predicted after the manoeuvers of 2003.
4
Under Trump, the US has become a rogue state. Treaties are meaningless; diplomacy a lost art. Laws are optional. There used to be criticism of Reagan and both Bushes for engaging in cowboy diplomacy.
Trump has taken it down to gangster style. He approaches the world like a mob boss.
16
Reckless brinkmanship with Iran, and the Dow is off the charts.
Environmental protections gutted at Trumps demand, and the Dow skyrockets.
Consumer Protections under assault and the Dow is in record territory.
Every court in the land is packed with partisan hacks. And still the stock market climbs.
What is wrong with this picture?
Nothing at all if you have money and want to make more.
But if you occupy the lower rungs of the economic ladder?
Yup! Right to the wall.
7
Scarier than anything is the fact that there's no one we can trust to tell the truth about what going on. The same press (NYT included) that aided the war in Iraq are doing the same thing with Iran.
7
I live about a mile from Davis Montham AFB. It's where the AF mothballs a lot of surplus air fleet. They are carefully put away, and could be deployment ready in 3 to 7 days. I noted with horror that 3 of the B52 bombers that were parked closest to the edge of the base have been worked on and at least moved. These are the big boys that we used in Vietnam to carpet bomb Hanoi and the Jungles.
I must admit, I'm pretty shook. We never learn. And Republican Presidents are so good at committing our armed forces to illegal wars. Iran would be smart to be building nukes, we aren't threatening N. Korea, now.
4
The sad thing is Trump has no knowledge of history, no knowledge of Iran, no knowledge of anything. This is just another stunt so he can blab to Hannity and rile up his fan base, who have no intention of picking up a gun and going anywhere outside the continental U.S.
7
Why would Iran negotiate ANYTHING with Trump. Backing out of the Iran Nuclear Deal when Iran was in compliance has proven to them they cannot trust Trump.
7
At the risk of sounding naive, doesn't Congress need to declare war before the bombs start dropping? (though with the current Republican leadership I guess there will be no brakes in place)
Wait for the first nuclear missile hit and then watch the Trump rats scurry.
3
Not if the Administration can tie it into Al Qaeda under the AUMF ( Authorization to Use Military Force memo ) written be Congress and signed by Bush in Sept 2001.
3
Show me the coordinates!
1
Trump has been setting up a war with Iran for a long time. He knows full well that Americans ALWAYS back a president during a "crisis." They will do it even if the "crisis" is false, intentional and planned. Trump is playing the media and America like a banjo. When will people start seeing this liar for who he is? He has his own interests in mind, not ours.
And the media still tries to normalize this con man!
3
Well, what do we expect from a liar-in-chief who will never apologize, always has to win, has no idea how to deal in the diplomatic arena (among other things), has to be a bully.
But, his supporters love it. Good, let their kids go to war.
And as far as the Republicans in Congress, you are to blame for this as well. You could have handled 45*, but instead you let him do whatever he wanted/wants.
6
If the US flew its drone into Iran's air space as a provocation, it would be the same strategy used b MacArthur in Korea. In "The Hidden History of the Korean War", I. F. Stone reports on MacArthur's sending fighters across North Korea's border and into China's air space, a maneuver which triggered China's entry into the war. MacArthur got the war with China that he wanted, but of course he was horribly outgunned, and was pushed back across the 38th parallel. Another lesson in hubris. John Bolton should pay attention.
6
@Clear Thinking
IF so they flew a $130, 000, 000 clay pigeon in there to get shot down. Same price as an F35 Lightning II. One would have hoped they had cheaper fodder on hand for such ops.
Trump's real goal is to be able to justify declaring a national state of emergency in the US. He would greatly increase his power as a wartime president and suspend elections. How else would he avoid the post-presidency lawsuits that could put him in jail? A messy war with Iran would be ideal.
6
@EE The cat's been long out of the bag on that one. It is too late to try that route.
1
Perhaps more likely than Iran having been “framed” (by parties unknown), would be that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has been allowed or encouraged to get off the reservation and signal a response to sanctions by threatening oil trade, transport and production while the government itself denies responsibility. The unleashed hotheads have real weapons and are also capable of botching up operations. Or perhaps they came back to the scene to remove the unexplored limpet bomb just to make sure they were caught on film.
The Iranians have no monopoly on fractious and unstable leadership, misinterpretation of facts, unconstructive and ineffective communication, and operational miscues. Like our politicos, they play to their domestic supporters first.
For the rest of us, the scariest part ahead is in the Department of Unintended Consequences. Scenarios can always be developed to take such things into account, but not without humility and steady strategic purpose, both of which our side is sorely lacking.
1
I am always a cheerleader to anything Nicholas writes, but I am not sure about "both have behaved recklessly," especially that we definitely can't buy our governments assessment of what happened to the two oil tankers, both because of our past experience with this administration's lies laden explanations and the dictates of logic.
We've been undermining the sovereignty of Iran for sometime now, and, as a sovereign country, Iran has every right to retaliate, especially if the drone turns out to have infiltrated their airspace. I am not a fan of Iran, but I don't see anything reckless in their behavior, actually, if anything, they've shown more restraint than one would have expected.
6
Haven't Trump's critics learned anything yet? He is the last person to overreact to these events. They, on the other hand, keep predicting Armageddon.
3
You have to give the Republicans credit, they've got this down to a science. Looks like this time around they are going to have us in a war in ONLY two and a half years. I bet they will also have us in a major recession in a much shorter time than previously as well.
5
Two years ago NK was wetting his pants over NKorea. Somehow strong arm diplomacy got us farther than all the Progressive handwringing. Anyone remember all the missiles being fired over Japan?
1
You could just as easily say that NK just know how to play this administration. There is no deal. They’ve given up nothing significant. And their allies now have some diplomatic cover to support them openly. They’re being NICE, after all.
There is hand-wringing, but it’s by people that actually know how NK operates, conservative or liberal.
3
@Sue Mee
Before that it was the global economic collapse predicted by Paul Krugman.
1
@Sue Mee and what actually has been accomplished with North Korea. Exactly nothing.
2
This will be bone spurs Trump war if we go to war as his withdrawal from Obama's treaty is the root of all this trouble.
The snake oil salesman has been drinking to much of his own product.
4
Our president is a basic jerk. The days of American armament superior are over. You know there’s that thing about MAD, mutual assured destruction. So what if we have 3000 nuclear weapons. We are talking about 1,000,000 degree heat in every city attacked by a nuclear device.
It stands to reason, 3000 is not the number. Try a dozen of theirs, no more U S A.
Only trump, who has little knowledge of just about anything, is playing with nuclear fire.
The Iranian forces are sophisticated and well-trained. A dog fight in the sky against Iranian pilots isn’t going to be a slam dunk..
Someone throw cold water in the president’s face. Wake him up.
4
Let's see, didn't Agent Orange promise to get out of foreign skirmishes? Perhaps that will be the death knell for his re-election campaign....if we are all still alive in 2020!
Someone please save us from ourselves, this is getting too scary for me!
2020 - Just SAY NO to Republicans!
6
So when one thinks back about the Invasion of Iraq what was the purpose, in my mind it was to make Iraq a failed state which it remains today. Iran, same strategy, of course the US will do the heavy lifting.
2
I'm going to predict that the protests in the US against a war with Iran will be 1000000 times larger than the Vietnam War protests and will happen in every state and city and town in the country, and will include every generation, not just the age groups who decades ago were in the draft for Vietnam.
Nobody wants a war. The protests will multi-generational.
And, I hope that it happens. I hope that parents bring their little kids (if it's safe), and that everyone from age 5 to over 100 takes to the streets and makes it clear that the voluntarily enlisted 18-40 year olds, who could be deployed, do not want to fight a war against Iran, and that nobody else wants a war.....not their grandparents, parents, children, aunts, uncles and cousins.
Nobody wants another War in the the Middle East. Unless it's the military contractors and the weapons manufacturers and the "hawks" who for some reason like wars.
Protest! No more Wars that put our 100% volunteer military at risk that have nothing to do with actual military weapon attacks on the US.
7
And I fear that, unlike Vietnam Nam or other wars in which USA has engaged since WWII, a violent conflict or actual war with Iran will bring terrible violence to the US homeland. Iran seems much stronger and better organized and with more international tendrils than was Vietnam/VietCong.
Many have not been this apprehensive about deployment of nuclear arms or other wmd on USA since the Cold War. Even if not directly on USA, then on its allies as proxies. Either way is almost unimaginably awful.
For the love of our children, grand and great grandchildren, and if need be, just selfish love of self, let us not go to or goad to war (whatever the government calls it's armed conflicts). Please.
6
Are you living in a dream world? There won’t be protests. There will be thousands of MAG (Trump) supporters marching FOR war. If you live on either the west or east coast you don’t see the millions of his supporters that indeed got him elected. The days of people showing up en mass to protest ANYTHING are over. We want: TV, Hero movies, a new car and nice things, not to discomfort ourselves with getting out of the chair to actually go somewhere and protest.
1
@Alexandra Brockton I don't know. Without Phil Ochs, Bob Dylan and Peter, Paul & Mary, who's going to inspire the masses to protest yet another war?
2
We had a way to prevent war with Iran in place and Trump tore it up because he’s a child. It’s a one way street in this case. Do not pretend that Iran is at fault here.
10
Please don't insult children like that.
1
Please, as if this wasn’t an inevitability the moment Trump was elected. And his alleged ambivalence is a lot of hooey given the likes of Pompeo, Bolton and the grim reaper Tom Cotton running loose. While I’m confident that Trump and plausible deniability will never be used in the same sentence, such a strategy would be superfluous. His creepy Rasputins will provide the heavy lifting.
3
What would Americans think if Iran had installed Shah Trump without benefit of an election, if Iran had warships stationed 12 miles from News York City or San Francisco, and if Iran shot down an airliner taking off from JFK and flying over their ships in international waters?
I think it is past time for American politicians to reread Washington’s Farewell Address (which they honor in the breach too often). Especially the part about “foreign entangments”.
1
May the powers that be save us in US and Iran from the powers of our current Presidents.
5
Maybe Iran's sinister strategy to punish the US is to help Trump win a second term.
6
Kristoff writes that "that Iran is repressive, destabilizing and untrustworthy."
Iran is repressive in many ways, but they are a republic with an elected parliament, multiple political parties and a multi-ethnic state that generally treats its minorities at least no worse that its native Persian population.
"Destabilizing." This usually refers to Iran's support for Hezbohla and Assad in Syria. But Iran did not intervene in Lebanon until after the second or third Israeli invasion of that country. And they did not intervene in Syria until the Saudi's armed and unleashed a radical Islamist army to attack Syria right on Iran's southern border.
Neither of these interventions occurred until after the US invasion of Iraq, which nearly dismembered that state. In balance it is the US, not Iran that has been the prime destabilizing element in the region.
Iran has not listed any countries for regime change. The US has.
"Untrustworthy." Iran negotiated the most intrusive nuclear inspection treaty of any nuclear capable country. By all accounts they have followed that treaty.
The US that abandoned the treaty and imposed sanctions without any serious proposal for new terms. Why should any nation believe the US when they unilaterally walk away from their treaty obligations.
I am not naive about Iran. They have engaged in terrorist acts, mostly in response to the assassination of their scientists. But on balance, they have behaved better than their American critics in the region.
11
Absolutely NOT true that the Iranian regime treats its minority populations (a la your "multiethnic") at least as well as its native Persian population. For starters, ask the numerous Iranian Baha'i and Jewish, atheist, and perhaps Sunni or Sufi populations, not to mention many, many Iranian women and girls.
3
Anti-Semitic, and often-enough Iranian-funded/supplied/trained, individuals and forces intent on perpetrating physical violence and other form of terrorism and war-making invaded or made serious attempts to invade, and quash, Israel or parts thereof -- from Lebanon -- long before Israeli military forces went into Lebanon.
1
This sounds crazy but it may ultimately help the US: let's say Trump gives an order to attack Iran far beyond a 'limited' bombing of a military site, then the acting SecDef and Joint Chiefs refuse to carry out the order. Will we *then* finally be at a point of a Constitutional crisis?
What will the enabling Republicans do? Obviously many will support Trump, but what if many don't? Will they finally do their sworn Constitutional duty?
3
Both have behaved recklessly? Sorry, but this is a one-way street, Mr. Kristof. The U.S. is raging around the world like a bad drunk, boorish, aggressive, and dangerous. You may not like Iran's regime, but the country did nothing to bring this on and has every right to defend itself. This is an American show from the get-go, and a long time in the planning. We are the biggest threat to peace on the planet.
19
Bibi has nukes. Putin has nukes. Kim has nukes. All buddies of Trump.
Xi has nukes. Their South China Sea is secure. All we'll do is play tariff games.
Now with the war drums a-pounding, Iran desperately NEEDS nukes. Can you blame them, after what we've done to Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya?
The rogue nation with nukes is Trumpistan.
6
Trump and his cabinet want a war so that Trump will be re-elected and his boys get to keep their jobs. Rarely does a sitting president not get re-elected during a war. Everything Trump does is to serve his self serving ambitions.
10
It could get scarier or it could calm down. Please accurately predict what will happen.
1
So much winning. I am definitely tired of all the winning.
5
The Iran nuclear deal was the recipe for peace, all great nations involved to support it. Now we have a recipe for war, Bolton, Trump, Netanyahu, Pompeii and no support of the rest of the world. Go it alone again and disaster of the worst kind will come. Do you ever learn from history?
4
To those who pay attention, it was clear a long time ago that a convenient war with Iran will "erupt" just before the election. Guided by Pompeo, Bolton, Miller and the rest, this feckless President will listen to the black words he is fed every day and go along with whatever they tell him. (It's not that he reads or pays attention to anything other than his Twitter posts, so he hears and obeys.)
This "war" might be "minor" -- just long enough for him to use it to his advantage. The Democrats will have zero chance to counter that in any way. All the candidates together would not prevail against "Commander-in-Chief" Trump who is going to "fight the good fight" for the Keep America Great crowd. Casualties, of course, not noticed at all.
The rest of us had better prepare for 4 more years of Trump if this escalates weekly (it will.) It is shrewd, calculating, devious and truly nauseating but the FOX crowd will be so happy with their guy.
If I had a say with the Democrats, I would tell them: use every ounce of money, time and effort to counter FOX 24/7. It is an evil, sick network that support lies, manipulation and brainwashing. If the Dems are smart, they will advertise on FOX every day with a different message (the network probably would take their money) but maybe offering to pay twice as much as anyone else might change FOX's mind.
Keep writing, Nick. We need you!
3
Bang the drums of war. Walk out of agreements, build tensions, send troops and ships, rattle sabers. Bang the drums of war.
7
As far as I know, Iran never mounted a coup that deposed our democratically elected leader, kept him under house arrest till he died or installed a tyrant who executed thousands and tortured thousands more. Perhaps Iran (or elements within) believe that we cannot be trusted and are trying to defend themselves.
7
All designed to happen. Ever since the demonizing and tearing up of the prior treaty this has been on a rail to where we are today.
The Saudi's want it. The Israeli's want it. The Military Industrial complex [ psychosis] needs it.
One catastrophe after another brought to us by people cynical enough to use the drum beats of war, and war itself of course, to manipulate and control public sentiment and political possibilities.
Should help his re-election campaign. Got to use those weapons every so often or else people may question why we spend our precious wealth on killing machines instead of schools and hospitals.
More reasons we need to take the power of war making from and return it to the congress, ASAP.
More reasons why he must be removed from office ASAP.
As the kids said in 68' ''the whole world is watching'' They are aghast, terrified, like me too.
3
It Could Get Scarier and even more SCARIER. Iran could be just the tip of the spear. If the US military get entangled with IRAN, then Russia/China could be emboldened to solve the Venezuela situation in their favor, in a direct challenge to Trump's Monroe Doctrine. Then the US military could be entangled in 2 low level conflicts. While the world is distracted with Iran vs US and possibly also Venezuela vs US, Russia will quickly strike and absorb Ukraine, and China will quickly strike and absorb Taiwan. While the US contemplates what to do to get Russia out of Ukraine and China out of Taiwan, N Korea invades S Korea. Looking at the prospect of a nuclear WWIII, US buys Russia/China to pull N Korea back, at the price of Russia keeping Ukraine and no more sanctions, and China keeping Taiwan and end to trade war in China's favor.
1
The tension fed by Israel and The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, obviously it could get scary... Iran is not alone anymore. It has Turkey, Russia, China, and Qatar.
1
Men and madness appear to be inseparable.
2
Under Trump, the U.S. can't be trusted with nuclear weapons!
1
If the U.S. drone was shot down over Iran, how does that make Iran the aggressor?
2
Sometimes US propaganda just makes one wonder about the population's mental abilities (let alone knowledge.) A drone now? Hundreds of thousands of people, whole communities, records and monuments of humanity, killed and destroyed by Bush, his lies and our might. Just like that, and nothing happened. Those in power who knew and "didn't like it" looked the other way, played dumb. A drone now? Really?
3
Wait, I thought Trump was up for a Nobel Peace Prize for his discussions with North Korea?
Does this lessen his chances of that?
:D
"Real men" should try multilateral diplomacy? Not a chance with today's Republicans, the party of chicken hawks (I'm looking at you, Donald Trump, George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, and John Bolton).
With enough B-52 runs and enough anti-personnel cluster munitions, there won’t be an Iranian military after the first night of fighting. Bring it on.
Chris, it is a serious mistake to underestimate Iran's military capability. War with Iran would turn out to be very ugly for everyone involved.
War rallies Donald Trump's radical "base". He also hopes to get votes from pro-Israeli groups inasmuch as Netanyahu supports war against Iran. "Bomb Iran" was John McCain's campaign theme song. The Republican cult continues to support war and the military industrial complex.
Trump behaved recklessly towards Iran and given himself no face-saving escape.
See, fix that for you. Glad to help, nytl. :-)
1
Iran can't have nukes, but North Korea can? We HAD an agreement that was working, but the dumbbell-in-chief pulled out of it. I hope our allies will stand strongly against this stupidity, INCLUDING Britain, for Pete's sake! Our western allies MUST be more important than the rogues tRump considers his friends. Dems, get busy with impeachment inquiries, and make good on your Mueller subpoenas, immediately! You look weak. Get this show on the road!
2
"multilateral diplomacy"...like flying in pallets of cash? You are playing checkers.
You are so cute Nick. Don't you know Trump doesn't do multilateral diplomacy? Trump walked into this with his eyes completely shut with Bolton and Pompeo shoving from behind. The sad thing is that the country doesn't even have a functional Sec of Defense.
1
This is all about Trump wanting to impress the religious right with his support of the aggressive attitude of the present Israeli regime, and his desire to impress the obscenely rich oil lords of the gulf. Throw in a generous dose of "foreign policy as mood disorder", add a bit of dementia, plus misplaced bone spur bravado, and we have "Trump does the middle east".
3
This is anything but a "collision course" between Iran and USA. This is an old fashion fascist power-play by the USA to take out Iran. I am ashamed of my country!
2
It couldn’t get much scarier, with this incompetent fool “leading” our country. He needs to be removed ASAP.
2
TRUMP IS ON A COLLISION COURSE With Iran. He himself is too unstable, scattered and chaotic to plan to go to the toilet unassisted. But the Iranians are far more stable and focused. Moreover, they've probably got the support of the Russians and likely the North Koreans as well. The Axis of Evil never went away. It was just dormant, or so it would have seemed. Trump is most successful in attracting negative attention to himself. It began in his childhood when he would start food fights at birthday parties. Now he's trying to start food fights on a global scale. And he's headed toward that goal. Trump has not learned that what you call parents are folks who practice coitis interruptus, or pulling out birth control. What you would call Trump if he continues practicing coitis interruptus by pulling out of international agreements on a global scale? To say he'd rock the planet is not an overstatement. Now if his energies could be directed toward reenacting Keyston Cops whipped cream pie fights, the world would be a safer place. You know--people would pay him to have their pictures taken wearing one of his whipped cream pies on their faces. It might be so popular that Trump could attract an overflow crowd at his hotel down the street from the White House. Of course the fees for cream pie pix would be tax-deductible. And the profits would be deductible too, because Trump knows a good deduction when he sees one. It's called being smart in business. LOCK HIM UP!!!!!
Maybe it is time for a woman!
2
This is a very dangerous time.
Trump is firing his pollsters, but he is going to recognize that he has no plan to expand his popularity beyond his aging, shrinking base. Faced with the humiliating prospect of joining the small club of Presidents forced out after a first term, he will be desperate to find a path that could lead to an electoral victory. With few other options, what better choice than to become a wartime President?
If we are lucky, the Iranians will steal a page from the North Korean playbook. Give him some minor concession amidst some ceremony and flattery, and maybe he'll declare that he's solved the problem that he created by escalating tensions in the first place and go back to watching TV. But that outcome will be jeopardized by Bolton's incessant drum beating and Jared's cuddling up to the wrong leaders in the Mideast. And his political advisors will be whispering that the only way to salvage his campaign is to launch a war.
Mr. Kristof's suggestion to "try international diplomacy" is great advice in the abstract, but it's an unrealistic plan. We have an unstable President nervous about his election prospects who is surrounded by uninformed and impetuous advisors. He knows he can't deliver on his 2016 promises of repealing Obamacare, reducing the deficit, fixing infrastructure or building the wall--so what's left besides striking Iran?
1
One picture showed a damage to one of those tankers with the damaged hull and the steelplates around the hole bending OUTWARDS! Is that possible with a limpetmine?
1
@kimball
Only if was attached inside the ship. BTW, Limpet mines are pretty much fireworks unless attached underwater.
1
John Bolton must be thrilled.
Trump will win again. Why, he has the Electoral College Votes
These, what are called, "trumpsters" truly believe he is their savior and will bring back to the USA all jobs they have lost.
Tweet from Donald Trump on January 17 2012
“Barack Obama will attack Iran in order to get re elected”
3
I am a provincial from Wisconsin. But this country bumpkin knew that smoking guns morphing into mushroom clouds was a whole lot of Wisconsin cow manure. So why should I believe anything crazy Trump and his war-whisperers tell me now. This time around, I hope the press, the congress, and the American people do their due diligence and stop this administration in its tracks. Otherwise we might as well start stocking our bomb shelters now. And P.S.- God help the brave service men and women who serve at the whim of this sorry excuse of a president.
251
@Peggy Sherman
Well said provincial! It is disturbing that draft dodgers and those who have managed to evade war themselves now like to play with their toy soldiers. The military is being led by...who exactly?
25
@Peggy Sherman Judging by what I'm seeing on CNN the last 24 hours, not sure the drumbeat to war by the media isn't happening all over again . Deja Vu!
4
This whole build up to war is part of Likuds long term plan , from Adelson and Kushners orchestrating the removal of Mattis and McMaster , the insertion of Bolton and Pompeo, to the breaking of the nuclear treaty with Iran , the crushing sanctions etc etc ..
If and when the really big domino war breaks out - historians , if there are any left will trace its origins to the same sources , influences that gave us the Iraq War
I was in Iran in the summer of 2016. Because of the sanctions being lifted, there was an optimism in the country. Many young people had opened up cafes, restaurants, and art galleries. Travel agents expanded, with the expectation that more American would visit their country and the amazing historic sites. I was asked by anxious Iranians if Trump could be elected and I said, "Of course not. American are not so stupid." I think back on that remark with dismay. And now we have Trump recklessly undoing pretty much everything Obama had set in place, not only with the nuclear deal, but with the environment, immigration, healthcare. Trump is a deeply insecure man who caters to his base NOT to America. He should never be trusted.
2
If Trump were really interested in avoiding all-out conflict with Iran, he should never have both pulled us out of the Iran nuclear accord AND have generated distrust among our allies. I don't know whether it's by design or incompetence, but Trump, like G. W. Bush appears to be taking us into a war to make himself appear indispensable going into an election.
There won’t be a Lebanon if these criminals start another war there. I’d also say the same about Iran. I think the Iranian leadership almost wants to be destroyed.
"It’s not impossible that Iran is being framed, but even knowledgeable Democrats believe the Trump administration is correct about Iran’s responsibility."
"Knowledgeable Democrats" voted to go into Iraq, because of weapons of mass destruction. That sentence just doesn't pass the straight face test.
3
Iran shot down a drone? Are you kidding me? After the slaughter perpetrated by Saudi Arabia and the assassination of a Washington Post reporter, and Assad responsible for hundreds of thousands of killings and millions of refugees fleeing from the region, we are up in arms over a "drone"? I can't say I like the Iranian government, but they signed a document agreeing to halt further development of nuclear weapons. They needed cash and we returned their own money back to them. There were no attacks on international shipping, although a large naval presence by the U.S. was constantly in their face, always within striking distance of Tehran. I don't see the Iranian navy off the coast of Florida within striking distance of Mar El Lago. Remember the cost to Iran in the war with Saddam who we supported? Iranians were attacked with poison gas- which was supposed to be illegal- but Papa Bush wasn't concerned in the least. No I don't like Iran, but provoking them disproportionately is the worst possible thing you could do. That's a pretty aircraft carrier, though. Those sailors are probably itching for something to do. I suggest they go swab the deck on the double...
2
Congress, your constituents are scared. Keep us safe from this disastrous administration. What are you doing to protect us. This includes all you senators running for president in 2020.
1
As an aside, with all this and oh, so much more, roiling - gotta love the stock market! Get it while you can greed and self interest trumping (sic) all - until the tweets and missiles go ballistic that is.
So, now we have the Trump --- Do You Want To Have A War --- game show. In pre-production since before he was elected and now close to premiering, to high ratings.
Okay. That was snarky.
More seriously.
The US intelligence agencies, plus our allies' intelligence agencies, and, even some of our unofficial non-allies' intelligence agencies, know exactly what's going on 24 hours a day and who is responsible and where they are.
And, they share information. Maybe, within our own IC, not directly to our current president, who cannot keep his mouth shut about anything, but to the military, state department and defense department and career diplomats, and also to private military contractors and the few members of Congress who can keep classified information classified.
Nuclear production is not secret. Genocide regimes are not secret. Governments that "disappear" people are not secret. Governments that murder people who disagree with the regime are not secret.
Iran is and always will be a bad actor, because it it a theocracy, but it is not threatening the United States.
Not one US military person should be sent to risk death or injury based on Iran's participation in religious Sunni/Shia (Shiite) wars all over the Middle East or Yemen or anyplace else.
Support Israel because it is the only democracy in the region, but don't support everything just as a de facto support. And, let the rest of the Middle East fight over their own land and religion.
Iran first established its nuclear program in 1957, under Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, with an agreement on nuclear cooperation with the United States under the Atoms for Peace program. In 1960, it purchased from the United States a small research reactor, which is located at the Tehran Nuclear Research Center.
The war in Iraq started on March 19, 2003. Some believe the 2003 campaign traces it roots back to the Gulf War in the early 90s with Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein in power at the time.
Iraq army was easily destroyed, but the child Iran is playing with nuclear weapons...which is quite lethal.
Yesterday I had a repairman in and in passing we brushed on the topic of politics. He turned out to be a Trump follower and his comments were jarring. About Iran: We would “stomp them but good” if they didn’t do what they were told. He added that our allies will fall into line because “they know we are the greatest economy in the world”. Before the conversation drifted on he added that “America’s in charge again and they all just better get used to it”. He was proud, fearless and committed. I only wanted my washer fixed but I got a glimpse of Trump’s America.
176
I guess your washer repairman stopped off at the recruiting office after the trumpian lecture he gave you.
41
@Wayne Right after Trump's sons did.
29
@Wayne. I'll bet that repairman went down to the post office and did his best Trum-Penc-graham act but when it came time wouldn't take the oath.
8
All little boys love to shoot their guns.
1
This mess is largely of our own making. Iran is never an easy customer to deal with, but it will be very difficult to negotiate with them in the future, since we reneged on the Obama agreement and then clamped down with sanctions. Whatever Iran's sins might have been under that earlier agreement, they were minor compared to what we have now. Mr. Trump always thinks he can get a better deal. I'll believe it when I see it. And how exactly do you get a better deal, when you throw away the one you had. Oh, and thanks a lot John Bolton.
2
More consequences of the 2016 election. So many people were happy with their moral victory to sit out or go 3rd Party.
Trump said during the election he was going to pull out of the Iran Deal.
We deserve this. You elect bad leaders you get bad results.
More reasons to make sure that beating Trump in 2020 is the top priority.
6
Elections have consequences and we are now seeing that war might be one of them. Diplomacy is urgently needed.
1
This honestly seems like just more of the drama that we've seen continuously from this White House. There will be words, perhaps threats, events that should be met with action but are not, and then a love letter will arrive or some other "resolution" will be found at the 11th hour followed by a self-congratulatory Twitter fest.
3
Is there anyone else out there who thinks that the United States should split into 2 countries? I'd like to move forward at a faster pace towards an empathetic human race where everything isn't determined by the value of a company and their stocks. Where all men and woman are created equal and remain equal throughout their lives. Where antiquated religious values don't dictate where they think we need to be.
4
Interesting thought, but it’s blue America - where all the wealth and jobs are - that values capital and material things in general the most.
2
As the war drums beat louder for war with Iran, let us not forget the profiteering that took place from the war with Iraq in 2003 which netted Halliburton close to $40 billion in the years after. Never mind the power vacuum that was created which created ISIS, which, though subdued for now, isn't totally dead.
There are always interests looking to profit from war, either financially or politically. Expose them and the enthusiasm for bloodshed may diminish.
2
Exactly but how do we stop Trump? Every day I get up and it gets worse!
Trump will do anything to win an election. Starting a war w/Iran will distract him (& MSM) from all the boulders falling down around him.
We've had a poisonous engagement w/the Saudis for many years--see "House of Bush, House of Saud"--going back to when GHWB was head of the CIA, and lots of nastiness went on. We still fund the Saudis in their genocidal campaign in Yemen. Mitch McConnell & his spineless crew will never pass a bill to cut off funding.
Of course Trump's & Kushner's fingerprints are all over the Khashoghi's murder. The Saudis bailed out little Jared when no bank in NYC would lend him the dough to keep a high rise. Blood is on their hands. Not a week after that grisly murder, Trump was already selling nukes to the Saudis--w/o Congressional consent.
When Congress abdicates its power of the purse to make Constitutional Checks on the President's power, he every day grows closer to a dictator.
I won't be surprised if he declares martial law to build his stupid wall. Watch out voters--if he doesn't lose by a landslide, he'll declare that the election was "phony." And his base has all the guns.
3
The Bolton/Pompeo/Trump/merchants of death axis are moving toward disaster for the world! Yet another war looming, as the ugly, warmongering, insatiable, global bully USA seeks to preserve its control over all!
5
You forgot to mention who or how Bolton and Pompeo got into their positions ? - who were the patrons who got them those positions , We see Bolton getting awards and monies from Adelson .
And Kushner replacing Christie and getting rid of the military moderate General McMaster and Mattis
1
I’m no warmonger. Taking human life for the sake of politics is the most abject form of failure in the world. But, if your opinion of the USA is so negative perhaps you’d enjoy living under the rule of any of the Mideast terror groups our nation constantly faces. What passes for our worst day in politics or daily living here would be a profound improvement for a vast majority of the population of humans living under the rule of these terror groups.
Generally the point of contact with these terror groups is invisible to we here in the USA. Iran has been a world class bad actor since 1979. They’ve slaughtered untold thousands of innocent persons and funded wars all in the name of spreading their religious point of view. Not to mention killing our own troops too in the name of their religion.
It’s not just the USA who are engaging these terror groups either. Most of civilized society is doing so as well around the world. They understand the necessity to keep this type of extremism out of a civilized society, it’s not covered in our news media.
1
Kristof now is more knowledgeable than the DOS, DOD, CIA and the entire USG. The fact that he spent a few days in Iran means absolutely nothing. He seems to be putting the onus on Trump when in fact this has been bubbling since 1979. He makes no mention of all the GIs and innocent civilians killed by Iran. He also didn't put Israel into the equation. Israel will NEVER let Iran get even close to developing a nuclear weapon. If they make a move and Iran retaliates then we are in it to win it.
1
Yes, Israel will never tolerate a nuclear armed Iran. That’s why Obama and allies hammered out a plan to prevent that. Oh well!
3
I imagine Trump is a poor chess player. That's bad for us because war is a lot like chess. You have to think several moves ahead and anticipate an opponent's countermoves.
Before we drop the first bomb on Iran we must have a plan all the way through what we want the post-war world to look like. What is our vision? I doubt we have one.
In fairness to the current administration, since the rebuilding after WWII we have never planned for a post-war world. We just blow stuff up, kill a lot of people, and leave failed societies behind. As one of our military leader remarked, "We don't do nation building".
3
I don't know who I trust less, Iran's religious leaders or our three stooges - Trump, Bolton, and Pompeo. This is what happens when an administration lies about all things large and small. When it hits the fan, they have no credibility whatsoever.
5
For those out there who voted for him, who still blindly support him, these are the dire consequences of electing an inept leader who not only has no clue what he’s doing, he’s surrounded himself with equally uninformed, thoughtless people. Unbelievable that the President of the US is Tweeting, yes Tweeting out threats in such a precarious situation.
5
Promiscuous as he is, Trump has already said that he would be very receptive to receiving love letters from the Ayatollah, since he enjoys dating Kim Jong Un so much.
I don't know how progressive or jealous Kim is in these matters, but if it helps preventing a war, by all means. Paying off Stormy Daniels didn't work out so well for Trump, but if either the Ayatollah or Kim want to have Trump all for themselves or share him among themselves on a weekly basis, you won't hear any objections from me.
The similarities between trump and the Ayatollahs are striking.
Both entities are unpopular, rule like fascists, are filled with hubris, lack compassion, and need a war to stay in power. trump may not want war, but be sure that Miller and Bolton are whispering in each ear what powers a war president has and how that helps getting re-elected.
Everything trump does from here to October 2020 will be a campaign event. He's written the country's needs off and will focus only on his own desperate need to be re-elected to avoid becoming a loser felon. War is just another tool in trump's campaign chest.
2
Multilateral diplomacy will not work with a nation that wants to push Israel into the sea.
@Rodrian Roadeye and why do we care? I don't. I'm tired of this canard.
So, Iranian warships are gathered off our coast, threatening our cities? Iranian troops are amassing on our borders, preparing to invade? Iranian long-range bombers are fueled up and ready to level our cities? No?
Wait, that's us. That's our troops, our ships, our bombers. We are preparing for yet another round of war crimes. This is not two sides behaving recklessly. This is one side engaged in unprovoked aggression.
4
The US is on a deliberate path that will start with the murder, maiming and bereavement of hundreds of thousands of Iranians. This aggression will cost thousands of American lives and cost at least a trillion dollars. There will be nothing "limited" about it.
Please, Trump supporters, don't be conned by the propaganda, lies and warmongering.
3
Trump can be trusted with nothing !
Let us not forget.
3
The idea of blaming both Iran and the US for rising tensions in the Middle East is absurd. The blame for starting this dangerous slide toward war begins with Trump's government which pulled out of the nuclear deal since it reminded him of Obama and because Netanyahu lobbied for a withdrawal. Although I admire Nicholas Kristof's column, balanced for a western observer, he falls into the old trap of accusing Iran of nefarious actions when it is no different from other states which pursue their perceived interest even if others get hurt along the way. "Powers will be powers," said the great English historian, A.J.P. Taylor. It appears that Iran is getting beaten up even by moderates because it is Iran. Only the American warmongering hawks, Israel and the Saudis will welcome a shooting war, and maybe a New York Times columnist. Everyone else should resist this very messy affair.
1
Headlines matter! ". . . may be on a collision course" only helps the case for war. We all know what happens what the media says something often enough: it comes true.
Iran should be scared, not the most militarily powerful country in the world. Please Iran. Give Trump a reason.
“Go ahead. Make my day!” Policy making a la Dirty Harry.
1
Mr Kristof, when you speak of "striking" Iran, you make it sound like a boxing match. What you are talking about is aerial bombardment to kill people and destroy their stuff. Most of the people killed will be non-combatant civilians. Most of the stuff destroyed will take decades to rebuild. Call it what it is.
1
Much of the article is well said. Iran is serving an ally in Syria. The US and its friends are outraged that they could not overthrow Assad in Syria with jihadists. This whole escalation is the USs doing. Trump repudiating an operating nuclear treaty with Iran for bogus reasons. Now unprovoked economic warfare. Iran is repressive but the destabilizing and untrustworthy labels are an attempt to show some sort of equivalency between the two sides which does not exist. Saudi Arabia is super wealthy bigoted theocracy with a growing record of aggression. Israel has lied about Iran's nuclear program for years. The US has no national interest in escalating the situation with Iran. But they will and people should realize how unnecessary a war with Iran would be. Since the US seems to write the history for these things the situation is like Iraq in 2003. In 2015 the Iraq War and its lessons are long forgotten.
I think going to war with Iran is exactly what trump wants to do, because then he'll be able to play the big strong he-man savior of America, and harp on the idea that voting out such a totally great a president in the middle of a war is foolish, a really stupid thing to do. And all his followers will of course agree.
Who else would benefit from a conflict with Iran?
Russia: It needs higher oil prices to salvage its own economy.
Saudi Arabia: Those criminals know exactly how to play Trump and they know he won't hurt them, because he does not want to jeopardize his own investments in the region.
Follow the money!
Israel: Netanyahu has everything to win from a conflict and from drawing the US into it.
5
Shouldn't we be connecting the dots from Jerusalem to Washington D.C. to Tehran?
3
Is our policy being written by Trump, Pompeo, and Bolton? Or are the authors MBS and Netanyahu?
2
Is there yet more to this as to Israel as well?
Iran will be kept on the back burner for a bit...the 2020 election is too far away...
1
There is another troubling reason why Trump may be antagonizing Iran: he may be looking at domestic politics and how “wartime presidents” tend to get a boost.
He does not seem to realize that when citizens can see how a leader rejects appropriate diplomacy and pushes inappropriate war, popularity goes way, way down. He will toss our soldiers into harm’s way to maybe learn this point, and risk the population of a country that honestly doesn’t want to be our enemy.
I am tired of other people paying the price for Trump’s poor judgment.
1
Nicholas, when you suggest that, “American hard-liners have had a dangerous obsession with Iran for years, egged on by Saudi Arabia and Israel.“ — you miss the actual ‘point of pressure’.
Like the start of the Middle East wars, by Cheney and the “PNAC Players”, the “American (HQed Empire) hard-liners” didn’t need to be “egged on by” anyone else.
Now, nearly two decades later, “The faux-Emperor is dead — long live the Empire”
The actual, but very well Disguised Global Crony Capitalist Empire, like a 737 Max 8 on MCAS, is only under the dangerous and ersatz control of the UHNWI and their global corporations and banks.
‘We the American people’ have to quickly grab and assert manual control of this flight, rather than just grabbing, like scared passengers, for their ‘air sick’ bags — if we are to survive a crash.
1
Cadet "Bone Spur" Trump's best buddies, Saudi Arabia and Israel, are pushing him into a fight with the Iranians while they will hold his coat.
1
A well timed war can help win an election...
2
Is Iran a threat to the US? Were the oil tankers carrying oil to the US? Were any of the oil tankers from the US? The answer is no to all these questions, which shows that the admin's focus on the tankers is merely an excuse to go to war. We really do not have a dog in this fight. If one of our allies who is affected wants to take the lead, maybe we back them if it is in our national interest, but I don't see why we should be asked to pay in so much blood and treasure to invade Iran, especially when our debt is currently so high.
1
Thank god we’re going to have a shiny new war, we came so close to spending on icky infrastructure.
signed War Profiteer
2
This is what we get with an unfit dishonest flailing president. Think of all the lives that would be needlessly lost were Mr. Trump to use military force. President Obama's pretty darned good deal would have kept a lid on things for years. I don't believe a word that Trump and Pompeo are saying. Who can't think of a particular Saudi prince who would like nothing better than to frame Iran? Why would Iran be so stupid as to directly encourage an attack? In order to be reelected and thereby avoid prison, Trump desperately needs a war. Don't let him tell you otherwise. Mr. Bolton and the Republicans lied about WMDs in Iraq and they lied about Iraqis welcoming our troops in. The Iranian hardliners are just like our Pompeo right wing hardliners. The Iranians whom I am acquainted with remain despite everything remarkably friendly and warm toward everyday Americans.
1
"Trump and his aides are right that Iran is repressive, destabilizing and untrustworthy, and it shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear weapons."
First of all, we need to look into the mirror here. Trump is so progressive, stabilizing, and trustworthy that he should be trusted with nuclear weapons?
Secondly, we should realize that Hump, in addition to being the liar-in-chief, is also the folder-in-chief?
What happened to "fire and fury" on N Korea? A new "love".
What happened to NAFTA? A lightly touch up and a new name.
What happened to some tariffs? Postponement.
What happened to trade war with China? I predict after the June meeting with Xi, it will be postponed and finally petered out.
Analysis paralysis. That is what happens when people try to "analyze" the Hump mumble jumble. Instead we need to recognize his pattern: chest pounding, mouth drooling out macho words, then fold. If one pays attention to his tweets one loses sleep at night. If, instead, one laughs at them, one gets a good night's sleep.
Both Trump and Iran are using each other. The only difference is, Trump is using them for his own selfish interests. The Iranian leadership, on the other hand, is using Trump to strengthen their hand internationally. Already they have made an effective outreach effort to Europe, which now knows that our nation's word is worthless, thanks to Trump. And any aggression by the U.S. will be met with unanimous condemnation (except for Israel, perhaps), further eroding our nation's standing.
And Trump is using Iran for his re-election. His only interest is to stay out of prison, a certainty should he lose next year's election. Or, even better, for him, he'll use the wholly unprovoked war he starts to claim that a "national emergency" requires that he cancel the election.
Either way, Trump doesn't care that the only result of such a war will be thousands of deaths of young service men and women, tens of thousands of deaths of Iranian citizens, and a complete demolition of whatever little respect and international standing the U.S. still has.
Now, Trump's voters know all this. And they're thrilled with his moves, because any time he kills brown skinned people while consolidating absolute power is a win for them. And what this nation will be known as, from Trump's reign onward, is a willfully ignorant, racist backwater of a country that was once a beacon for human rights and a respected world leader. All brought to you from Trump voters.
1
The author starts out implying that "both sides" are equally to blame for the escalation but then fails to support Iran's faults with little more than an assumption (absent hard evidence) that the country was behind the tanker attacks.
Iran is Iran and has been so for 40 years, no surprises. And the U.S. is partially responsible for that. But the recent escalation is squarely the predictable result of unilaterally blowing up a long, carefully negotiated agreement which Iran seemed to be honoring, imposing crippling sanctions, and bullying the rest of the world to knuckle under.
McConnell & trump have only one aim, and it's to be the Obama eraser. Meanwhile, the rest of the world will continue on the long road of disentangling itself from reliance on the U.S.
1
Voters better start asking themselves if it's worth going to war so that Trump can save face. With our president's temperament, it could very easily come down to that.
1
Iran has no nukes. In the absolute sense, the US could destroy Iran in a heartbeat. So what would “war” look like? Iran could deploy, directly or through proxies, dozens of micro-attacks on strategic US assets or interests, with no direct association apparent. It could sow chaos in markets and security stability. I’ve personally seen a dramatic spike in attempted phone scam....any Iranian connection? We’re in a world where “death by a thousand cuts” or “the law of unintended consequences” poses a much greater threat. I don’t like an intellect like Trump’s being in charge at a time like this. Iran is a serious problem, but it must be managed carefully and the realistic consequences of any strategic move must be soberly understood.
@Zip
War brings chaos and political upheaval and rarely proceeds as neatly as planned; and, it often plants the seeds for future wars. Or do we so soon forget Iraq and Afghanistan?
Why isn't analysis on what's happening going any deeper?
Playing several chess moves ahead, what are the real U.S. and Iranian motives for this shadow conflict?
Iran needs something *anything* to distract its sophisticated population from a crashing economy and backwards governance. A limited dance with The Great Satan would fit that bill perfectly.
Meanwhile, Trump's only foreign policy goal is to crush China. It's been the central organizing principal of nearly everything he's done on the foreign policy front so far. If he can jack up the oil price, it will dramatically hurt China's economy (China imports over 70% of its oil). Taken in concert with tariffs, the real game here begins to take shape.
There is far more going on here than what's being reported. Please look deeper into the motivations on all sides for what's happening, instead of painting both sides as nuts. They aren't...each has an objective.
Saudi Arabia and Israel would like nothing more than for the U.S. to bankroll and attack on their enemy, Iran.
We need to follow the money on this one before we act.
This is the fairest article I have read in the NYT assessing and apportioning blame for the current crisis. Kristof hints at possible false flag operations to convict Iran of sabotage, he correctly describes Pompeo's 12-point ultimatum to Iran as ridiculous and, tellingly, he emphasises the foolishness -- or deviousness -- of many U.S. politicians in equating Al Qaeda with Iran. When will the U.S. cease blaming Iran for the crimes of Saudi Arabia?
Iran is the U.S.'s natural ally, but it won't become one through a 1953-style 'Operation Ajax'. Nor will Iran observe human rights and become anywhere near to 'democratic' as long as there are 30 U.S. military bases on its borders posing a permanent military threat. A 'siege mentality' encourages neither reforms nor dialogue.
It is sad that the chief U.S. warmonger is John Bolton, who receives considerable sums for 'speeches' to the terrorist cult, the Mujaheddin-e-Khalgh: If you thought Al Qaeda and the Islamic brotherhood were bad, wait to till you see the effects of Saudi-U.S. support for an Islamic-Marxist (= worst of both worlds) cult led by a woman who tries to hypnotise her audience with comical, Rasputin-like expressions. Is this your best alternative to the mullahs, who actually fought the Saudi-created abominations of Al Qaeda and ISIS? I hope not.
And I hope cooler heads, like that of Nicholas Kristof, will prevail over those of the chicken-hawks.
2
Disappointed in this article. Usually Mr. Kristof is not so gullible. Mike Pompeo's statement a few days ago contained no facts. It was full of vague references, significantly misleading assertions, and outright lies, however ("..... 40 years of unprovoked aggression against freedom-loving nations”----please!), along with much saber-rattling. Kristof should be much more critical of statements made by anyone in the current administration, and should not be in any way, shape, or form giving any credence whatsoever to warmongering bluster.
1
Seems like trump’s shambling us towards war. Israel, the Saudis and the UAE seem to be riding trump hard into it. And why should we believe anything from a pathological liar?
1
To which I ask....Does Trump need a Reichstag Fire? Wars galvanize the base. All leaders know this. The incompetent ones rely on it.
Should we not call this bluff?
let's bring back the draft !
Lessons? Trump has absolutely learned lessons. He learned that a moribund Bush Jr presidency was turned around politically and young Georgie got reëlected. You could see this coming from day one.
An absolute disgrace, and given the enormous potential loss of life, a new low for Der Trumpf which takes a lot of doing. But no one should be surprised.
2
Trump’s chickens have come home to roost.
Donald has no wish to uphold the Iran deal? Neither does Iran.
Donald wants to make Iran a global outlier? Iran acts like one.
Donald bullies, mocks and discredits our allies? He and his administration now find themselves without international support in the standoff they created with Iran.
I think Iran definitely definitely wants a war with the US. What better way to manipulate the evil enemy into legitimacy for the Iranian goon squads. Look! It’s the evil empire picking on poor ol Iranians again. Trump is THE definition of loose cannon. So the likelihood of a hot war is large. What the Iranians really want is to go nuclear. They got their billions, now they can get more. A war in which they can truly win. Because no matter what happens, they can justify the nuclear weapons they will build and the military mindset of its religious beliefs. The un-Islamic Islamic State.
America is always itching for a war, always against a much weaker nation. That's the definition of a bully. No wonder Kim is determined to keep developing nuclear weapons and delivery systems that can strike the US mainland. Meanwhile, the US administration is played for a patsy by the weapons industry, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Shame on us.
1
This is what Bibi wants and Trump is doing his dirty work.
When the war starts, will Israeli-Americans [with dual citizenship] return to Israel and join the IDF to fight for their ancestral homeland ..? Or will they remain here under the protective umbrella and comfort of the US?
It's hard to imagine that this Administration after walking away from the Iran Nuclear Agreement then place heavy sanctions, is so incompetent to believe it's all Iran's doing.
They only get worse, now the "bring it on bravado". And who's going to support us if we attack Iran with a population twice that of Iraq with 81 million Iranians? Our European Allies, nope. Trump and company have alienated all of Europe.
The dumb just get dumber.
3
Disturbing events, Nick. I'll ask the trump administration, if it wants to modify Iran's behavior, then what is it prepared to give Iran? Merely enforcing economic sanctions by threatening our partners into boycotting Iran is not enough.
Surely trump, the great dealmaker himself, understands about bringing the other side around with rewards for adopting his point of view. But so far, we have seen none of this negotiating skill from the trump national security sycophants.
And, is there any policy paper trail that documents trump's posture toward Iran? Failure to have any written, stable policy means that the trump diplomatic ship just lurches from side to side. But that's the way trump governs. His behavior is reinforced by his rabid followers at his rallies.
Finally, if there is a full scale action in Iran, trump will have to call up a draft. In his good economy, we'll see who shows up after the skepticism that Bush and Cheney's Iraq War has caused.
The next president is going to have to be an intelligent, educated person who builds a Middle East policy. Trump is making that task much harder to achieve.
1
Please no! It is possible that Trump does want a war, as he may believe that if the US is in a war in 2020, the majority of voters will not want to change presidents. Democrats need to make clear all of Trump's crimes and misdeeds, and his inconsistencies and manipulations, to say nothing of idiocy and ignorance, that may lead to (nuclear) war.
1
We need to take Donald’s military toys away from him.
3
Nothing bolsters support for a president at the start of a re-election campaign like a shiny new war. Shock and awe. Unfortunately, it isn't this chicken-hawk charlatan president, his supporters in the Senate, or their children who'll fight this war.
2
Both Trump and Iran are using each other. The only difference is, Trump is using them for his own selfish interests. The Iranian leadership, on the other hand, is using Trump to strengthen their hand internationally. Already they have made an effective outreach effort to Europe, which now knows that our nation's word is worthless, thanks to Trump. And any aggression by the U.S. will be met with unanimous condemnation (except for Israel, perhaps), further eroding our nation's standing.
And Trump is using Iran for his re-election. His only interest is to stay out of prison, a certainty should he lose next year's election. Or, even better, for him, he'll use the wholly unprovoked war he starts to claim that a "national emergency" requires that he cancel the election.
Either way, Trump doesn't care that the only result of such a war will be thousands of deaths of young service men and women, tens of thousands of deaths of Iranian citizens, and a complete demolition of whatever little respect and international standing the U.S. still has.
Now, Trump's voters know all this. And they're thrilled with his moves, because any time he kills brown skinned people while consolidating absolute power is a win for them.
And what this nation will be known as, from Trump's reign onward, is a willfully ignorant, racist backwater of a country that was once a beacon for human rights and a respected world leader. All brought to you from Trump voters.
2
Both Trump and Iran are using each other. The only difference is, Trump is using them for his own selfish interests. The Iranian leadership, on the other hand, is using Trump to strengthen their hand internationally. Already they have made an effective outreach effort to Europe, which now knows that our nation's word is worthless, thanks to Trump. And any aggression by the U.S. will be met with unanimous condemnation (except for Israel, perhaps), further eroding our nation's standing.
And Trump is using Iran for his re-election. His only interest is to stay out of prison, a certainty should he lose next year's election. Or, even better, for him, he'll use the wholly unprovoked war he starts to claim that a "national emergency" requires that he cancel the election.
Either way, Trump doesn't care that the only result of such a war will be thousands of deaths of young service men and women, tens of thousands of deaths of Iranian citizens, and a complete demolition of whatever little respect and international standing the U.S. still has.
Now, Trump's voters know all this. And they're thrilled with his moves, because any time he kills brown skinned people while consolidating absolute power is a win for them.
And what this nation will be known as, from Trump's reign onward, is a willfully ignorant, racist backwater of a country that was once a beacon for human rights and a respected world leader. All brought to you from Trump voters.
1
If what passes as leadership to Republicans gets us into another ginned-up wrong mideastern war, I hope it will result in a revolution in this country to remove said "leadership" and then prosecute them.
1
Well we can say that America as become a real Rogue Nation now with such enabler as Pompeo, Bolton, Trump, Netanyahu.
2
This is what Jared and Bibi dreamed of and it is coming to pass.
4
@JAB: Don't forget MBS, the Butcher of Saudi Arabia.
2
The American regime is also unpopular, incompetent and corrupt.
2
"Haven’t we learned lessons?"
No.
2
Trump needs no face saving out- he will just alter the facts to suit himself later. People with no shame don't need to save face.
2
@Terry
Alas for Trump, he can't manipulate foreign governments as well as he can domestic TV and rally attendees. Trump could claim a face-saving victory, but he knows Tehran would do something to prove him wrong and embarrass him in front of his MAGA fans.
"Trump and his aides are right that Iran is repressive, destabilizing and untrustworthy, and it shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear weapons."
Ha! Hahahaaa.... Well, I would say exactly the same about Trump and his cronies in DC and what they are doing to the US both internally and to its reputation abroad.
Niether Trump nor Khamenei are intellectually or constitutionally capable of backing down or of being diplomatic. And we have no allies left who will willingly support us - Trump and his "diplomacy" took care of that.
Even if Congress never formally declares war (And it won't. History lesson - the last time Congress passed joint resolutions saying that a "state of war" existed was on June 5, 1942, when the U.S. declared war on Bulgaria, Hungary, and Romania. Since then, the US has used the term "authorization to use military force".) I fully and cynically expect that we will be at "war" (excuse me, we will "be using military force against") with Iran before the end of July.
1
Nothing would make this president happier than getting us into a messy, mysterious war. It would secure his future as the leader of a moribund democracy.
1
Mr. Kristof,
You nailed every point but one.
Saudi Arabia is pursuing nuclear technology and is being given the green light from our administration. Saudi claims it needs the technology for energy. This is ludicrous for two reasons. Oil is plentiful and so is solar.
Whether Saudi is or is not perusing a bomb, [it is], Iran can't sit back and allow its regional rival the have the upper hand.
Now that we let Iran out of the agreement, they will not accept a new agreement unless it includes Saudi.
That of course assumes that they can trust us.
This is all the result of Stupidity from two republican administrations.
"W"'s Axis of Evil speech and his subsequent invasion of Iraq pushed both N.K. and Iran to expedite their own programs.
Now both situations are much worse than when idiot took office 30 months ago, our own intelligence services don't trust their C & C, for that matter neither does the rest of the world. On top of all that key positions remain vacant or are being held by temporary appointments. Those that are filled are held by very unqualified people or those with extreme views.
So the question is not: Will it get worse? its, "How much worse will it get?"
I hope I'm wrong, but its going to be bad
1
Remember when you vote in 2020 who started all of this.... and it wasn’t Iran.
It is DJT and DJT alone who terminated the Iran nuclear deal. And he did that with no plan B.
Now DJT is absolutely petrified of leaving office.
Without the protection of presidential immunity he is a sitting duck for federal and state prosecutors.
And then there is putin.
There is a special place for people that know a lot but are no longer useful for a dictator like vlad.
DJT will do anything- ANYTHING- to remain in office. Even initiate war!
1
Are we sure that the Drone NEEDED to be flying around to begin with? Or perhaps could the US (Bolton) be provoking a confrontation? Leave Iran alone till things chill out for God’s sake.
1
The whole thing in the Middle East is between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and I don't think we should be taking sides. (They are both against Israel.) And for one thing one of them is a dictator kingdom that executes teenagers for criticizing the king, and the other is a democracy, so that settles my choice right there. The people who rattle sabers against Iran are the ones who are upset with them for not submitting to us under the Shaw, democracy is not for people we want to subjugate. I can't blame the Iranians, but I sure can blame us.
There's no good reason for us to go to war with Iran. It's a no-win situation.
I'm most afraid that this president may be inclined to start a war to get reelected. He needs to realize his name would be forever smeared with a decades-long quagmire with the blood of millions on his hands.
In addition, a new war would probably increase the incidences of terrorism in the world rather than lessen them. Peace would fade to a distant hope on the horizon for decades.
I'm just hoping that he keeps a cool head long enough to elect a good cop again. Bad cop is bad.
He needs to begin serious talks with them to provide them a clear path to having sanctions lifted. What are the demands? Do any of us know what they are, or is this just chest pounding?
1
Liars to the East, liars to the West. All are armed and spoiling for a fight. I'm 65. In my lifetime there has been no positive outcome from war. And I defy anyone to prove that any were necessary. I wonder how we would react if Iran flew drones off the coast of New Jersey -or if Cuba announced they wanted a military base/prison in Florida. We INVADED Iraq over completely bogus claims. Have we accomplished ANYTHING in Afganistan? Is there ANYTHING to be gained by a fight with Iraq? Perhaps the Trump fiasco planners are impatient with the pace of environmental destruction, and feel a nice new war would be more expeditious...
2
War is the most effective way to unite the populous behind its leaders, even behind clownish demagogues like Trump. This is particularly true of the large swaths of the country where Trump is worshiped as a demigod. Popular ignorance has never been a more valuable asset to a brutish character like Trump, and to such a vast industry like the military.
2
Great column and further proof, if more is needed of the total incompetency of our government and the “advisors” in the White House. Who at Fox, no news, will be the next top appointment
to the worse president ever.
2
Create a bogeyman, convince America that he needs to be destroyed, start a war and win an election.! And people think Trump is stupid.
4
Kaiser Wilhelm and Czar Nicholas II also thought war would strengthen their hold on power but the war they began — and lost control of — destroyed them and tragically killed tens of millions. Is jumping into new battles over control of the oil rich areas with Saudi Arabia versus Iran a war we need to join?
1
as soon as I heard about the Iranian attack on the oil tanker I had visions of the Gulf of Tonkin. Just shows how old I am. When you look at America's governmental total expenditures over the last 50 years you'll note we've poured more into war material and the training and killing of our own soldiers then we have into infrastructure. The killing of civilians in our targeted countries just seems to be the cost of doing business. I don't know if Nancy can get impeachment of a wartime president. War has been one of the best re-election strategies 4 Generations.
4
This is not about Trump and Iran; it's about the free world and Iran. How many ships have to be torpedoed before the world opens it eyes and shows some courage? It's only that because Trump is President, Dems (and some of the old boys from the GOP) refuse to get behind Iran's never ending threats and provocations. And, of course, what do we hear from the world's foremost chicken coup....Europe? Crickets. I think if the USA (with Israel, of course) go to war against Iran and Europe doesn't immediately side with and fight alongside the USA, the NATO alliance will break and like Humpty Dumpty never be put back together again.
The US has had less than 20 years of peace in its entire history since 1776. Over 1,200,000 soldiers have died in our wars. Trillions upon trillions have been spent on war not to mention the huge burden of maintaining the most expensive military and defense budgets in the world. How many of these wars were avoidable? Do we really need to play ego brinkmanship games with Iran while we are still fighting costly wars in the Middle East?
Have Don Jr, Eric, Ivanka, Jared and the other one enlisted in the US Armed Forces yet? That would show real leadership and commitment.
3
Please do not forget the critical role of the media in setting up the war. Uncritically posting administration "evidence", and editorials pushing for American muscle are crucial to building the support for war. The press must do a better job of portraying skepticism at the claims of an adminstration that has repeatedly lied. Trump and his cronies have cooked and passed on video of Nancy Pelosi. The Times has commented on how easy it has become to create fake video. We cannot just accept the evidence of video uncritically. Conspiracy theorists talk about false flags, but we have the evidence from history of what governments have done. They have burnt the Reichstag, sabotaged peace talks to win elections, and thrown away perfectly reasonable deals to gain attention. The press must be skeptical and report only factual info. It must be careful to delineate what is known and proven from what is not known.
216
@Debra
Debra: Please don't cast responsibility upon "media" as a general term. The motivating propagandist force that has contributed to most of the "fake news", false and prejudiced information information and outright lies has been TRUMP-TV - also known as both FoxNews (that's a joke) and NewsMax (and, to a great degree, FaceBook and Twitter) - all the absolute bottom-dwellers of free speech.
The fact that some people actually believe what they say is a disgrace to this country. If progressive people, REAL AMERICANS, had not fought to protect the right of free speech for ALL, Trump's lies would have no audience and he would be the nothing loser that he really is.
14
@Debra: You are aware of a reality patriotic Americans prefer to ignore. Examples of this type of thing abound. Every time one of our citizens is arrested in a foreign country the press completely ignores that these could be CIA agents and instead pictures them as innocent Christian missionaries or similar. A recent example is when several years ago we used a contractor to take forbidden goods to Cuba, but refused to recognize that until the proof was absolutely undeniable. We have our national interests, but they are hardly just responses to bad guys not allowing us to pursue our inevitably proclaimed, saint-like pursuits of truth, justice and the emancipation of the world from "evil empires" and all the world's "bad guys." (And your hearing this little diatribe from someone the CIA tried to hire a couple times as one of their analysts!) There are "bad guys" on all sides, sometimes as a matter of just pure personal ambition, as much as our civilian and sometimes military tries to convince the American public to the contrary.
2
In the words of Sir Walter Scott: “Oh, what a tangled web we weave...when first we practice to deceive.” Put another way, we’ve lost our collective minds.
8
I remember the day Bush senior invaded Kuwait, a United Nations authorized coalition of force, lead by the US. Many criticized Bush for getting out so early.
I remember the day Bush junior invaded Iraq, with a US lead coalition, after all those Saudis crashed into the Twin Towers and the Pentagon. A bad idea with non-military officials commanding the war out of ignorance with irreparable consequences, which we are still living with and funding.
In both of these aggressions, the US was supported by a set of allies who supported the US actions.
It'll be all but impossible to expect an allied coalition to support the US position when all the allies signed an agreement with Iran, that was years in the making.
It was not the US that decided to withdraw from the agreement with no Plan A or Plan B, that honor belongs to trump and a Republican held Senate and House who did nothing to maintain the agreement.
Think about how the trump tariff war is affecting our economy. Now imagine the US economy under the same economic sanctions the US has imposed on Iran. Where would the US economy be today?
No coalition. No Plan A. No Plan B. Only Plan W. War.
For Whom?
4
Oh, this is a done deal, we are going to war with Iran for sure. There are too many forces in the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Israel that want this war more than anything, and if Trump is defeated in 2020 those parties will will lose their chance. The window is closing and Bolton, MBS and Netanyahu are not going to let Trump not give them their war they so desperately desire.
Time to put on our war pants, America, and this is going to be absolutely devastating for all parties.
7
War with Iran is exactly what the doctor ordered for Trump to win the next election.
6
Don’t bet on it!
Iran’s leaders have been despots since the late 1970’s. They’re itching for a war they cannot win. I feel badly for their citizens.
"repressive, destabilizing and untrustworthy, and it shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear weapons. (Of course, the same is true of Saudi Arabia"
Israel too, right?
Our "allies" are a glorious bunch - Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan. A glorious bunch. The "friends" we keep, say a very great deal about exactly who we are. It ain't pretty!
10
notice the author says "Trump" & Iran may be on a Collision course - the American people are tired of the loss of life & expense to future generations that war in the Middle East is costing
4
The last thing Hezbollah wants to do right now is to start shooting rockets into Israel that result in significant loss of life.
At some point, Israel is just going to say enough's enough and smoke Iran.
1
One of my many concerns about this issue is that Iran is chock full of architectural, textile and ceramic treasures that would be at risk in any extensive bombing campaign. To see a template, we only have to look back at what happened to the Iraqi National Museum when we invaded Iraq.
149
@There Real life is in part about identity. And identity is tied up with family, beliefs, culture, history, language, art, beauty, the past. Yes, individuals would suffer greatly in ways that are physical and economic if all out war occurred; in addition, there would deep psychic wounding and cultural demolition is one aspect of that.
27
@ Mike, Thanks for this comment. History, archeology, art are the soul of a country. Loss of human life is the worst of all horrors....along with a country’s heart beat to its past. Human beings seem to never learn.
35
@Mike My concern is that bombing or invading Iran could lead to the deaths of million of Iranians.
12
We are heading to largely as a result of Trump's incompetence and the GOP's slavish devotion to greed. Trump cares not about other humans, foreign or domestic; singularly or in population level groups. His devotees see him as messianic but the man is evil. If we don't do anything, evil will triumph.
5
We can surely hear the drum beat getting louder and faster. As always, when the United States sets its sights on a country to attack, there's nothing citizens of the world can do or say to stop it. Given that we have an ignorant and illiterate three year old leading us, who completely believes in a country that killed a journalist but denied it, I'm afraid the war is around the corner. Be prepared for more propaganda from our country leaders and many innocent lives lost. Sad but oh so very predictable.
I am neither shocked nor awed.
8
I do not believe a single word coming out of the Trump administration--especially not from Donald Trump. But neither do I believe Pompeo, Bolton, or any of those other fools and grifters Trump has around him.
If they are looking for public support for this war they've been trying to provoke since day 1 in office, count me out. Yes, the Iranians are bad guys--but so are the Trump people.
8
Start a little war close to the election and there might not be enough enough time for it to start looking like it's going to escalate into a quagmire.
Physical and moral coward that he is, the personal might trump the political.
But politically?
A little war would help.
This is the part where Trump's maniac leanings become
worrisome. Why he is still in office remains a mystery to me.
I used to wonder what was wrong with Trump. I now wonder what is wrong with us.
6
...the regime is unpopular because of its corruption, incompetence and repression." Starting to sound like America under a Republican/Trump ruled nation.
6
Iraq war was fundamentally wrong at moral and legal level . Now we can blame the intelligence . But the intelligence was not wrong Wrong intelligence was created by force by the administration.
Iraqis did not want the invasion They wanted the sanctions be removed. Iraqis did not want it in 1990 invasion either That audacious and illegal war ( forced through UN because USA could ) which was decried by Iraq Egypt Saudi Arab in 1990 paved the way to plain murder of millions in Iraq. destruction of 1st world type of society, creation of 3 rd world type of society and repression of Saddam .
USA again driven by drivel put itself up in the self -created moral tree from which it couldn't come down until and unless Saddam were gone. Now there is a concerted attempt to put veneer/gloss of honesty and innocence on these 2 illegal invasions by citing Saddma's cruelty ( like 1988 gas attack on Kurd or like the Kuwaiti baby being killed or like the imminent invasion of Saudi ) or lack of intelligence or spread of democracy .
4
Trump needs to be impeached now. He's totally incompetent to handle anything, let alone a complex diplomatic move that could stave off a war. He is a security risk to our country.
8
Our recent history of invading Mid Eastern countries should make even Pompeo and Bolton think twice. Pompeo's 12 point plan is ludicrous. What realistic goal do they hope to achieve? Not regime change, not a popular uprising by masses yearning for freedom, and not better behavior at the end of a stick. This looming conflict is being driven by Bolton's aggressive world view, Trump's sinking poll numbers, the threat from the Mueller/Dem case on obstruction, Netinyahu's legal and political peril, and the Saudis vying with Iran for regional dominance. A perfect storm of malevolent motives to get into a shooting war. We've been down this road before in Iraq, at the cost of many lives and treasury. Democrats and allies must resist the drive to war!
4
@EB: Don't forget to add to your list the new attention paid to the Kashoggi murder and dismemberment. Oh, and Deutsche Bank's not following up on Jared's money laundering scheme. So many things to distract from! A war is just the ticket!
2
@sophia Indeed!
w/o the Iraq invasion, Bush might have had an insurmountable challenge in 2004. This is not lost on teh people advising Trump. They know the US never changes the White House during a "war", regardless of how contrived it might be.
Look -- we are all over the Middle East, calling shots, supporting Iran's enemies, poking Iran, just trying to offend them. We are acting the part of the bully. The US, when its right-wingers are in, is hopelessly tied to military provocation trying to, among several factors, justify its unbelievably huge military addiction.
Nukes & submarine delivery in the Middle East? Does anyone really think Iz's arsenal was 100% the result of its own work?
2
This looks like 1914 2.0 only with bigger scarier weapons. There will be no winner should a war erupt between the U.S. and Iran. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions will needlessly perish in a most certainly avoidable war. I wish those in Washington and Tehran would read either Barbara Tuchman's The Guns of August or Christopher Clark's The Sleepwalkers. Both classics as to how Europe in 1914 was a house of cards with treaties and alliances which soon became a continental, then a world war in the span of barely over a month. Doubtless the same thing will happen with Iran too. The US will attack Iran, then Iran will signal Hezbollah to attach Israel, Israel will launch counterstrikes in Iran and Syria. The Gulf region is a tinderbox and all it needs is a spark.
In less than three years, Donald Trump has managed to destroy any credibility the U.S. had around the world -- even I, who thought and think he is the worst President this country has ever seen (at least in modern times) didn't think it was possible. But, it turns out being dumb, mean, arrogant and narcissistic are the lethal combinations that can and has taken this country to the brink. I'm not sure we can wait until 2020 -- Nancy Pelosi has an obligation to protect us from this monster...Impeachment may be our best chance yet.
2
“Repressive, destabilizing, and untrustworthy, and ...shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear weapons”. Transparently, this also precisely describes Donald Trump.
Our profound mistake of electing this malignant clown may be near to exacting its full price.
2
It’s completely ridiculous to argue that Shiite Iran and Sunni Al Qaeda are close enough allies, that action against Iran would be justified by the 2001 authorization. But hey at least this time around there will actually be WMDs.
@William Lucier: Iran does not have WMDs, It is in full compliance with the international agreement halting their nuclear weapons program. Only a fool or a blind Trump follower would believe that Iran attacked those Japanese Tankers at any times let alone when the Leader of Japan in in Iran negotiating a treaty. I firmly believe this is all Trump/Republican Party action to insure Trumps reelection.
1
This is supremely absurd theater. As the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia manufacture this war, and build a narrative to support it, lost in the shuffle are the dead bodies piled high in a landscape of human suffering. Americans are desensitized to the high cost of our wars, too busy manicuring the front lawn to worry about it.
3
Bolton and Pompeo, backed by Mnuchin and Kushner, and abetted by McConnell, really want a war against Iran.
John Bolton wants a war because he likes wars. He helped Cheney fabricated the "WMD's" that gave us Iraq II. He is a master at starting wars.
Pompeo is all allied up with Israel's Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman. He is a good Baptist and Tea Party activist, and made real chums of the KSA when he was CIA director.
For Mnuchin and Kushner, it is all about money. Jared gets $100's of millions in Israeli bank "loans". Mnuchin still works for Goldman Sachs. A USA proxy war for Netanyahu will make Adelmann and others very happy.
McConnell is the leader of the Congressional profiteers who run the military-industrial enterprises in the Southern states. AN Iran war will bring in lots of money to their armament companies, which means lots of donations for their next term congressional runs.
Lies, proxy wars, profit for some. That is the GOP goal. And the clueless Trump is let it all nfold.
1
Only now we have a con man and a fraud with zero credibility for anything he has done in his life to the positive betterment on anyone else(except himself), calling the shots.
The duplicity of the US and the West never ceases to amaze me: Saudi Arabia, the regime that executes children, treats women like vulnerable property, funded the 9-11 attacks (not officially but elements in the regime) created the Wahhabism that birthed modern Islamic terrorism and murdered a US-based journalist in one of its consulates, gets to enjoy investment, military equipment and newsflash: is now having US military technology produced in its own borders.
Iran does support destabilizing movements like Hizbullah and its regime is theocratic but at least its people can vote, there is some political pluralism and women can lead somewhat independent lives. It also doesn't run an execution frenzy or a dangerously perverse version of Islam as official state policy. But yes, they took over the US embassy and held hostages- there is that. And for that they are treated as the most evil and dangerous regime in the middle east.
Climate change may lay bear the hypocrisy of our money-based alliances in due time. When Saudi Arabia explodes into full throated intolerance and hatred we will live to regret it.
240
@Miguel Valadez Marvelous post. But with regard to hostage taking in the embassy, we must see that in the historical context of CIA kidnapping of their democratically elected president, and a subsequent 40 years of autocratic rule that they endured.
16
Miguel your post is thoughtful and true. Saudi Arabia also...at the present...claims to be our ally. I guess they like our military equipment better than Russia's or China's. They also sell us oil. Iran is also lobbing missiles at our women and men in Iraq.
When and if the war starts, it will be interesting to see if Saudi Arabia...and Israel...get into the fray. These tankers we are protecting are exporting oil to China and Japan...not the US. You also make me think of Saddam Hussein. What would it be like over there if we just left him alone? We'll never know.
6
@Miguel Valadez
My thoughts exactly. I might add when comparing the Kingdom of SA to Iran and other incursion into staunch repressively run Middle Eastern countries:
Both men and women are not required to wear “religious” clothing. Before our Iraq shock and awe Iraqis were also free to wear that they wanted. same with Afghanistan and war torn Syria.
Good non-parochial education available in Iran to both men and women and girls. Rich Saudi men go elsewhere for higher education. Women and girls rarely obtain higher degrees and professional credentials.
Saudi economy runs on the backs of indigent migrants without rights.
Women drive in Iran. Saudi women just got that right.
Trump can get his Nobel Prize not by quelling this latest nonsensical yet dangerous eruption of tensions but by figuring out a way to balance the scales of US “allegiance” to these two powerful countries.
As I recall, Saudis also called for the destruction of Israel. And one can’t enter Saudi Arabia with an Israeli immigration stamp in their passport.
3
Before the US plunges into a war leading to slaughter of thousands or hundreds of thousands (or worse) of people, how about encouraging some deep breathing and working to patch up the accord that Trump cavalierly abandoned?
Perhaps, just perhaps, we could avoid an unmitigated disaster.
When an irresponsible force meets an immoderate object.
2
@Tansu Otunbayeva Oh, well said. I am using this.
Well, we were wondering what it would take for Republicans to see this ‘so-called’ President for who he really is and maybe we will get an answer.? It’s really sad that it has come to another war without allies to support us because Trump has labeled them as ‘not paying their fair share’ , while he himself continues to not pay his fair share in taxes, time spent working as a president, and not divesting of his businesses , so actually profiting from being president while he spends our money golfing and continues to make the world less safe for democracy but better for Putin and his other pals - Kim, Salman and other thugs. The Republicans have no one else to blame but themselves, but the ones in Congress declaring war won’t be the ones sending their children, it will be us peons, who have got the shaft in every way since Trump became president - no healthcare, no infrastructure, no strengthening of public education. Now they are even attempting to weaken the safety net for Seniors and sick citizens, with preexisting conditions. Justice will be served, but it looks like it will get worse before the dawn of a new day in Washington. The day of reckoning will come, but what a cost to the innocent and what profit to the man in the White House and his 1 percenters. ‘You can gain the whole world but lose your own soul’. Will it be worth it McConnell and Trump?
2
This is a political and psychological fight that Iran is waging against Trump, which he is not going to win. The US allies in Europe are worried and weary of Trump's no coherent and clear foreign policy so he won't get much help from them. Their sympathy right now is with Iran. And then there's the Kim, Xi and Putin triumvirate. Trump is fighting several fronts, it's doubtful if he can win any of these battles. Trump and his advisors, like Kushner, are not battle-tested, bunch of neophytes in the world arena such as this.
1
From the day Trump was elected, I predicted that months before the 2020 election he would find an excuse to go to war. He saw how goiung to war boosted (in the short term) the approval ratings of other presidents, most recently both Bushes
2
What's with this misleading headline and article? The idea that these are two parties having something like equal blame is ridiculous. Our administration is pressing for war in order to increase profits and ratings and everybody else will pay dearly. The "reasons" put forward are just flimsy excuses. There's nothing good,beneficial or honorable about any of this.
1
Is it possible that the US is creating, along with its Saudi and/or Israeli partners, a false flag pretense to invade Iran? Of course.
Ginning up public opinion and congressional support for wars of choice is nothing new. It defines who we are and what we do and dates back at least to the Spanish-American War and the sinking of the battleship Maine. A fictional account of an attack on the US fleet in the Gulf of Tonkin served a similar purpose justifying the war in Vietnam. And famously we fabricated a tale of weapons of mass destruction amassed by Sadaam Hussein as a pretext for the invasion of Iraq.
Noting the outcomes of the wars in Vietnam and Iraq, the likelihood of anything other than a failed military adventure with potentially millions dead in the middle east is not mere speculation.
2
We left the Iran deal which was working, and imposed harsh sanctions but Iran is provoking us? Funny how that logic works.
2
Don’t you inflict more damage by placing the limpet mine below the waterline, causing the vessel to take on water?
1
It appears our current military industrial complex is suffering and, in order to fix that we MUST go to war. Iran is as good a choice as any.
Simultaneously with this new conflict we need to (we MUST) reinstate the draft. It's time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.
Trump will ensure that the upcoming deaths (likely in the tens of thousands for Americans and easily in the millions for the Iranians) will secure his place in history as a true, forthright, and able leader . . . just like Pol Pot and Idi Amin Dada.
1
Just keep the sanctions up and enforce them. Iran will get the idea. No need to go to war with them. Not worth the loss of American lives.
49
@NVFisherman
You ignore that the sanctions are both porous and lack a credible threat of force as a back up to make them fully effective. They're particularly porous because of the lack of trust with the U.S. that Trump has promoted from our long standing allies whose cooperation we fully need to make the sanctions be more than just ways to infurirate the Iranians. Add Russia and China to the list of non-enforcers leaves Trump with his trusted staff of incompetants just growing a global American disablement.
Most importantly, for the same reasons, the sanctions lack the force of a back up threat of U.S. tropps on the ground. If that "risk" is not there, neither is force of the argument without it The Iranians know that many past Trump-voters once fooled into going to war against Iraq would vote against him in larger and larger numbers in 2020 if he launched something. And, if Trump knows anything, he knows that.
8
The lifting of the sanctions was after years of negotiations. It was a plan that was working. Trump disregarded this and (as expected) Iran retaliated. We reneged on the deal--not Iran.
12
@NVFisherman Not sure our glorious leaders care about American lives, and certainly not those of innocent Iranians.
11
The Democrats need to press for the reinstatement of the mandatory military draft for all young men and women from 18 to 25. Then the Republicans can have a moment of enlightenment foisted upon them when it's their children to be sent into the meat grinder of war. The GOP really is bankrupt of morality and courage.
1
A war with Iran will bring nothing good to either country. It will for sure enrich the Industrial Military Complex and kill a lot of people. There is also the credible possibility that Iran has a nuclear weapon or could get one in short order.
Don't cavalierly abandon treaties.
Don't poke a wasps nest!
Don't act unilaterally.
Build a coalition of allies and escort ships with a multinational military force. Protect other assets in the same way. For sure this would be expensive and difficult but much less expensive and dangerous than a war. This would also keep the door open to diplomacy. War slams the door of diplomacy shut!
Congress, you are now letting our country the United States of America endanger the world.
1
the only reason why this regime is still in place is because of America's pressure. the nuclear deal was the only option. scrapping it was criminal.
if Trump thinks he will be reelected by declaring war to Iran, he is deadly wrong.
Obviously he is trying to invent excuses for another war, just like GWB did in Iraq. Why do the Republicans do this?
1
@Pat Because the military-industrial complex contains the GOP's biggest donors--Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon, etc.
It would be a real tragedy if Trump and company led us into another unnecessary war, this time with Iran. This vile and despicable man has caused a lot of harm to our country but it would be nothing compared to the harm he would cause if we went to war with Iran. Every rational citizen should write to their representative and demand that they stand up to this man before it's too late.
One just feels bitter that Trump mucked up an Iran nuclear deal that at least was keeping the peace and slowing proliferation. And why? Because it was Obama's?
Is anyone under the illusion this war will not involve a significant cyber attack on the US? This is likely not to be just another war to be watched from the comfort of your sofa.
The scariest part is that Trump wants to use nuclear weapons,
he never cared about consequences. He is the only one who can make that decision and he loves to show the world that no matter
much they ridicule him he has the power to destroy
The more Trump feels threatened, the more dangerous he gets.
Could the US beat Iran in a war on their own turf? Perhaps in the short term, yes but like Iraq, an initial military victory would likely become a long, bloody and grinding insurgency.
No doubt if the US would be willing to commit total war and utilize the bulk of its military resources, overwhelming Iran's military is possible. That would leave us vulnerable everywhere else we currently have commitments, including and most dangerously at home.
At this point Trump has squandered the good will of a substantial number of allies and those allies would be crucial if any hope of a military victory possible. Given Trump's childish, ill-informed and petulant behavior towards them, and NATO as a whole, how many will be willing to help? Not many if any at all.
This is where Trump's ignorant, combative hubris is most dangerous. The man is not a big picture, strategic thinker. He's just a prickly reactionary who's used to screaming "I'll sue!" whenever he's challenged. That's all he's got. It's all he's ever had and when it comes to diplomacy, is's meaningless.
If you're gonna pick a brain fight, one might want to have a brain, something we all know Trump lacks.
189
@digeridoo We speeding to another war: remember Vietnam, the weapons of mass destruction and now the attacks on oil tankers and the shooting down of a US drone. I hope am wrong but with Trump as Commander in Chief anything can happen.
4
@digeridoo
Imagine what a few cruise missiles can do to US Navy ships in the Persian Gulf. Americans are not ready, willing nor able to accept the loss of life that war with Iran will require.
I'm also interested in knowing if anyone on team trump can describe what a victory over Iran would be. The same team failed miserably in Iran, and here we are, having stupidly put the same people back in charge.
9
@digeridoo Iran is twice the size of Iraq. They have 5000 years of history and ethnic unity. Recall that we are $4 trillion into the Iraq war and have killed about a million Iraqis. Please review for yourself how that current war is going. Now picture a much, much bigger and much, much longer war.
12
"It will be a great big beautiful war."
Excellent article, thanks to Nicholas Kristof.
We have initiated in Vienna a petition with almost the same title: Against a new war in the Middle East
https://www.openpetition.eu/petition/online/call-against-a-new-war-in-the-middle-east#petition-main
We hope that all the peoples who are against a war USA-Iran will join us.
1
What is very upsetting is that, at the same time that the President is bullying Iran, that is complying with the nuclear deal, he is also selling nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia. This is destroying our credibility in a “fabulous” scale. This is not foreign policy, this is the height of irresponsibility.
When did we become the defenders of commercial shipping? At least one of the boats that were attacked was Japanese. Why is our President and his cohorts thinking of a war to defend private enterprise that isn’t even American? It’s just a pretext, you all. In chaos and war, control flows to the top — which is what Bolton, Pompeo and Trump live for. The Senate is Silent —what a surprise.
The USA has been antagonizing Iran ever since they threw out that gangster dictator Shah Pahlavi, who was "Our Boy". Sure they over reacted when they kept our embassy people locked up for so long, but then they had good reason to be angry at us.
Pahlavi had thousands of people in prison and a KBG like secret police force.
They were not our enemy until we made them our enemy.
2
And of course no one is asking if we can afford a war with Iran, a much larger and stronger nation than Iraq. But free lunches for children? No! Not with my tax dollar!
2
It is so easy for politicians to go to someone’s country because of some perceived threat to their own.
The administration is putting the armed forces in an situation where they cannot win. No way. I’ll bet you a shinny nickel that Bolton, and the right wing ingrates( they are all Bounders) have boatloads of stock in these firms. The only winners will be the shareholders of the arms and munitions suppliers. The losers in consist of the young people who died and their families who will carry on without them, and another increase in America’s Debt.
This year may be the begging of the end of America as a democracy of ideals, principles and the value of justice for all. All things must past.
1
@Henrysor
I agree, which brings back to mind my proposal for a special "intervention brigade". This force would consist of the nearest relative of military age of the President, Vice-President, all Cabinet members, and every Senator and Representative. This force would be the first sent in anytime US. troops are deployed into an overseas combat situation and the last to be pulled out.
Let us see how fast intervention is voted on when those making the decision are sending their own children into the fray.
Trump likens every encounter with a foreign nation to his "deals" in real estate and running bankrupt casinos. He thinks that one or two sit down meetings, with a Roy Cohn type next to him, and that's it--a deal is struck or a lawsuit filed. International diplomacy does not work like that, nor should it. Sadly, Trump is not a reflective person, who by now, would have concluded that his deal making strategy has not worked with North Korea, Russia, or Iran. But here we here, with a President with little patience and little knowledge....here we go.
Iran was not always controlled by the ayatollahs, it was and still is a cultured country quietly under this authoritarian government.
Read history! We took a democratically elected president decades ago and replaced him
with a colonel named Reja who became the Shaw of Iran. He was a despicable ruler who killed thousands of his own people, but he kept Iran from nationalizing the oil which is exactly the reason he was put in the job by the west. When he was overthrown, Iran went to the ayatollahs. We muddle in everyone’s politics without a forethought of a long term plan.
Iran did not have to end up like this but now we may have to deal with the dark forces that are there now.
I have no illusions about Iran but I also have no illusions about the US. Bush and Cheney lied about Iraq and Trump lies all the time about almost everything. Trump believes he can bully everybody into submission. He fails to realize that other nations have pride and sometimes that pride can be self defeating. It is not always rational. Diplomacy is important - both sides can win. It is hard to negotiate with bullies. The US has lost the moral high ground and everyone is worse off for that. Sad!
200
@David R
Totally agree. If Democrats and US voters who are not brainwashed by Fox News have any rational logical thinking, it's should be crystal clear who wants another war in Mideast: Israel and their
all-powerful lobby in US, and their right-wing war mongers like Pompeo and the fascist Bolton. Trump, boxed in by them, will cave in.
3
How many countries believe what U.S. says about Iran's aggressive actions, when the President has an unmatched record of lying.
Trump might need a war to get reelected.
This conflict serves both regimes. For the Iranians, to galvanize the populace suffering under rampant inflation and unemployment. For the US, it creates a new enemy to distract us and compel supporting Trump. The problem is that neither really want to fight but they are moving towards no way out without losing face.
If we thought Iraq was bad, just wait till "mission accomplished" with Iran.
Two thousand five hundred more troops won't do it. Iran has 3 times the population and 3 times the area of Iraq, we are talking about one million troops, and the return of the draft. Iraq is full of Iranian militias so Trump will have to re-occupy Iraq, as well as invade Iran when he starts Bolton's war.
Charles, from White Plains Georgia, you are correct as I can confirm from knowing 100s of Kurds, Assyrians, and a few Arabs from Iraq, all of whom I first met as a volunteer at the Red Cross in Linköping, Sweden. It is a puzzle how someone with so much access to international sources as Kristof can make such a statement.
In all my conversations only once or twice did an Assyrian (Iraqi Christian from Baghdad) say that Saddam supported his people.
As you know, even the US supported Saddam during the Iran-Iraq war and the Saddam H attack on Halabja.
But the Kurdish-American interaction is certainly complex as we see in the Kurdish part of Syria.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
Iran’s dangerous reckless behavior should not be rewarded, regardless of what you think of Trump.
Attacking ships and oil refineries should not be ignored, nor should we cave to such provocations.
It’s simply not enough to say that we should submit to Iran’s demand and aggression because Trump is at fault for pulling out of the deal and upping sanctions. In no way can you argue that Iran’s attacks are justified.
The US should work with European allies to maintain or increase sanctions, protect shipping, refineries and other interests, and respond in kind by hitting Iran’s war ships or aircraft. Let them know there’s a price to aggression.
Iran's regime is unpopular because of its "corruption, incompetence and repression." The US matches that in two out of three. Iran also "has a deep nationalistic streak." Again so does our current administration. We seem to share more than is acknowledged. Will congress step in and exercise its constitutional powers to declare war, or in this case, refuse to permit the administration from going to war? Good question. Answer TBD.
I've learned lessons, and so I see war between the U.S. and Iran as nearly unstoppable. The Trump administration will not go for negotiations instead, they don't negotiate. Or at least, Trump never manages to make deals with anyone.
Trump doesn't want to avoid a war, he is desperate to start one. He can't get his ratings up any other way, and he knows that America, as the most warlike nation on the planet, always backs a war president. Nixon was the only wartime president to be removed from office, and only because he gave us no choice, he had been re-elected with ease.
I'm sure this drone was flown into Iranian airspace as a provocation, hoping they would shoot it down. More and greater provocations will follow, until Trump gets his war. Iran is run by fundamentalists who will take the bait and gladly join the fight. They truly despise the infidels, and will view it as God's will to fight the attacking heathens.
The only real hope now is that Trump gets distracted by another shiny object, and thankfully there's a chance of that, as he has no attention span. But at the moment, the greatest likelihood is that the U.S. will spend trillions of dollars, lose thousands of lives, kill hundreds of thousands, cause more Middle East chaos, generate millions of refugees into Europe, and cause negative repercussions worldwide. If we're lucky, it won't start a war with Russia, Iran's ally, which would go nuclear and eliminate humanity.
1
The fear of a war between Iran and the US is no hyperbole. What’s worse is that not only does Trump surround himself with hawkish advisers, who hate Iran, his administration is so incompetent that they have no deeper knowledge about geopolitics than ordinary Americans.
No wonder they know little about the history of the Middle East and the Sunni-Shia schism.
Trump has reduced the role of diplomacy and slashed the State Department’s budget on purpose, leaving many key posts empty, and driving many seasoned foreign policy wonks out.
Instead he appointed a sycophant to run the State Department, and his son-in-law to be the “secretary of everything.”
What Jared Kushner, Mike Pompeo and John Bolton share in common is their ties to Sheldon Adelson, a reactionary pro-Israel hawk.
Right now the country needs someone like William Joseph Burns, the legendary negotiator who has served presidents of both parties, to bring America’s diplomacy back on track.
1
Trump will have war, and it has nothing to do with his cabinet.
That's what the man does. War.
Mr. Kristof offers that "Trump and his aides are right that Iran is repressive, destabilizing and untrustworthy, and it shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear weapons."
As the 'rest' of his column makes clear, so are "Trump and his aides" … and neither should we.
1
At first I thought about World War I but that isn't a good comparison. That war was European. The better thought is Viet Nam. Can we get the hippies to get things rolling before the war starts? I am a vet and was a volunteer and I protested after service. We don't have to have another war to remind us how inept our leaders and military are at creating the rationalization of mass destruction of our enemies and our people. We only came in WWI and WWII after the wars had started.
2
I remember thinking when Trump was campaigning in 2016, "Can you imagine this man leading our country in a time of war !". His lack of sound judgement, obvious as it was then, and his clearly aggressive nature caused me to shudder at that thought. But, I comforted myself, if the worst were to happen and he won, surely there would be competent people around him, reining his chaotic impulses in?
Over the past three years, we've seen little in the way of sound advisement or control from the people Trump has chosen to surround himself with, and certainly not from Mike Pompeo or John Bolton, warmongers both.
Now, with the addition of a Raytheon lobbyist as our new acting Sec. of Defense, combined with the president's fears of losing re-election, we are less secure than ever from some fabricated excuse to start a real conflict with Iran.
My nightmare of a few years ago, where Trump, unstable as he's proven to be, is at the helm taking us into a war that might eventually involve the rest of the world, looks to become a reality before long.
Our best hope is to let all of Washington know the people of this country want none of it, and loudly. We're going to have to drown these other voices out; then, next year, remove them altogether.
2
I see many comparisons to the Iraq war in the comments, but the big difference this time is there will be no attempt at nation building, which is what bogged down the USA in Iraq for so long. Iraq's actual military defeat was almost comically short. Iran would probably be tougher, but not by a whole lot, relatively speaking.
1
@Mark The Iraq war also spurred the growth of Al-Qaida and ISIS. What will this war spawn?
1
Russia will allow this conflict only to the extent it separates Trump from Europe, which is his goal. Europe didn't want Trump to back out of the treaty and disagree with his aggression against Iran. So Russia will allow escalation only to the point where a rift between the US and Europe occurs. Russia needs Iran to hold Syria, so it will find a way to get Iran to back down, when the time is right.
Trump simply doesn't understand that he is a pawn in Putin's grand scheme of undoing the NATO alliance.
2
The Axis of Evil is being held accountable. Slowly, but surely. Much harder sanctions are needed against Iran and North Korea. If Iran and North Korea continue their nuclear belligerence, then the repercussions are on them.
1
Most presidents feel they have a freer hand in foreign rather than domestic matters. Nixon, for one, felt domestic politics was a distraction from the big stage: foreign policy. Now add to this tendency Mr. Trump’s personality. When you hand the keys to the foreign policy car to someone who is a duplicitous, ego-driven, bullying narcissist, it should come as no surprise that he will seek to cast himself as a transformative historical figure on the global stage. That is, he will never be content to be seen as a competent manager on anything, let alone foreign policy. He’ll just keep prodding until something cracks open. If it goes well, he will direct all the credit to himself. And if it doesn’t go well, he’ll just point fingers or lie until the moment passes. Up till now his foreign policy failures have passed under the radar of most Americans but bolder moves are undoubtedly in the offing.
2
We are in an odd place, where Donald Trump is actually the voice of reason on Iran within his administration.
Not because his positions are actually reasonable, but because he has surrounded himself with neoconservatives itching for war whose positions are significantly more insane.
Now we just have to hope and pray that Tucker Carlson can play peacemaker and convince Trump to fire John Bolton, or at least disregard his opinion.
Welcome to the USA in 2019!
2
Putin’s end game is, and has been for a long time, higher oil prices. The UAE is positioning itself to drive a wedge between Iran and Russia. Watch for success or failure of this maneuver to gauge the future of alliances in the region. Russia has been stirring the pot in the Middle East for a long time, but more so when they’re low on cash.
1
I suspect he is just trying to improve his poll numbers. Americans famously rally around the flagpole and whomever is leading the charge when we go to war. I was flabbergast to see W's poll number top 90% when he invaded Iraq. Most everybody figures it out after the fact, when we are embroiled with no easy exit.
And I thought the rollback of EPA coal rules was bad news yesterday, his whole tenure is a slow motion train wreck.
5
Not as scary as a nuclear-armed Iran chanting "Death to America".
Iran has been carefully escalating. First attacks on tankers that caused only minor damage. Now attacks that set one tanker on fire, a complete loss; no reports about the other ship. What's next? Another Cole?
Freedom of navigation is a long-standing American principle. We went to war for it in 1917.
We need to increase the pressure. Embargo Iranian oil exports and refined product imports. Enforce by Naval blockade.
3
Iran obeyed to the agreement. And Trump left the agreement without proof that Iran violated it at any point. Iran is potential threat in the Middle East, but it only escalated since Trump decided to leave the Deal that was difficult to agree on in the first place. And to think that other in the region, like Saudi-Arabia, are more trustful is an illusion. Besides, the meddling done by the US over the last decades made the situation not better. Iran is the perfect example!
4
@Jonathan Katz
I disagree. What we "need" to do is get back to the bargaining table and employ more diplomacy, instead of deploying more troops -- Especially since the U.S. is the one that backed out of the Nuclear Agreement with Iran.
And why?
Because it was brokered by Obama.
3
@Jonathan Katz Surely a nuclear-armed United States government chanting "Bomb Iran" is scarier. I mean, for one, it's actually a thing that exists as opposed to your war-mongering fan-fiction.
1
Not quite sure our decision makers know where we are headed in our dealings with Iran. What is clear to me is that American strategic doctrine continues to be focused on the short term and, of late, more jingoistic than ever. The Iraq ‘war’ handed that country to Iran on a platter and, regardless of MBS’ elevated testosterone levels, there is no way the House of Saud (and their buddies in Abu Dhabi) will win, in the long run, against a more educated and established country like Iran. It is in America’s best interest to let the pot simmer, continue to encourage democracy in Iran (our soft power matters a lot) & actively chip away at the regime, continue to sell arms to the Saudi’s & the UAE (US jobs) (if we don’t, the Russians will), and then allow the dust to eventually settle where it does (my prediction is we are 2 generations away from Iran holding sway in the entire Middle East). Instead we have needlessly stoked a situation that could make the Iraq ‘war’ look like a backyard barbecue. And hasten Iran’s dominance albeit with an unfriendly regime.
2
I do not believe most of our 'leadership' could find Iran on a map.
I opposed the invasion of Iraq before it began and never changed my mind. However, the following is simply not true, Nick:
"President George W. Bush and his aides were deluding themselves to think that Iraqis would welcome an invasion; Iraqis hated Saddam but hated even more the idea of Yankee imperialists attacking their nation."
Iraqis generally did welcome the invasion, and public opinion remained on balance positive about it for many months thereafter. This was reported in the mainstream US news media. The Iraqis connected the dots between being invaded by the Western powers and reaching the end of their nightmare under Saddam Hussein, and did not prefer the luxury of resentment to the end of the nightmare.
That's not to say that the Bush administration's other calculations were correct, much less that the Trump administration's reckless failure to calculate is.
Of course the subsequent occupation of Iraq was bound to have disastrous results, as Henry Kissinger passionately warned the Senate Foreign Relations Committee before the invasion (on September 26, 2002):
"I am bitterly opposed to a prolonged occupation of a Muslim country at the heart of the Muslim world by Western nations who proclaim the right to re-educate that country."
But as far as the invasion itself is concerned, it's much more accurate to say that the Iraqi people welcomed it than that they didn't. The prediction you made six months before the fact turned out to be wrong. So why repeat it here?
The Iranians seem to have concluded that they are better off at war with the United States. American sanctions have hit the Iranian economy hard. Backing down is not an option for the current regime. (Indeed, given the history of US intervention in Iran, backing down wouldn't be an option for any Iranian government.) So what to do? A low-level military conflict does not hurt the Iranian economy any further. And it's likely to raise internal support for the regime.
On the flip side, the Iranians know that a ground war in Iran would kill Mr. Trump's reelection chances. He told them that when he called the tanker attack "very minor." A full-blown ground war in southern Iran would be enormously costly to the US. If the Iranians run into trouble, they just ask the Russians for weapons and support, which Russia can supply covertly. Russia has always wanted to move Iran into its sphere of influence, which would give it an outlet to the Indian Ocean. For over half a century, we've been successful in keeping that from happening. But the Iranians may have come to view Russia as less of a problem than the US.
3
Here we see, plain as day, another example of the failure of "both sides" easy analysis. In what way are Iran and the US completely equal in blame here? Iran worked with the international community for years to create a negotiated treaty- which the US just threw away. Then they hit them with crippling sanctions that are destroying the country. And Nick just thinks they should... do what? Ask for more pain?
6
Even if Iran is trying conducting these actions, I don’t see the point in responding with force. It’s like we can’t help but get baited into costly wars. We could just as easily back off, or engage diplomatically. Look at China; when was the last time they were provoked into a war they didn’t want? Even a bear will back off from a coyote if it has nothing to gain.
2
Sorry, but Iran hasn't behaved recklessly compared to the USA, which has been sanctioning, threatening, and otherwise working against Iran ever since the USA overthrew the democratically-elected leader of Iran and installed a dictator.
Obama's Iran agreement was a rare moment when the USA was a negotiator rather than a bully imperial power.
Our military hasn't been used in a truly defensive war since WW II, and our actions against Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Grenada, Panama and many other countries show you who the reckless aggressor really is.
Given that Iran made the nuclear agreement with several countries in good faith, and the USA unilaterally trashed the agreement, it's astounding to me that anyone can blame Iran for what Trump's warmongers are pushing for.
6
What ? Are you presuming or asserting the US would deny China oil by controlling the Gulf region ? Are you suggesting the US would occupy Iran on an on-going basis ? Dubious ideas at best.
Now that Iran has shot down an American drone, Trump will sink half the Iranian Navy. And hopefully take out one of their nuclear facilities.
Thereby restoring the status quo. Big mistake on Iran's part.
I believe absolutely nothing coming from Trump or Bolton and Pompeo. There are so many secrets in this administration from Trump's and Kushner's financial interests, their secret meetings with Netanyahu, MBS and MBZ to Bolton's grand desire and Pompeo's religiously tinged rapture stuff that no ones knows about. Then there's the money from oil and players like MBS and Putin and American oil interests which also poison the situation.
We and the Iranian people do not know the true intentions of these "men' and are being fed orchestrated propaganda. Iranian leaders have their own agenda too.
Trump does nothing that does not benefit him somehow. Money or votes or ego gratification? Yes, he is that shallow. And he LIES.
This mess is being created by both sides in lieu of truth and reasoned non-violent action, diplomacy.
6
Real men become friends through diplomacy. Unfortunately, our leader is nothing close to that. Congress, and that includes you, Gang GOP, better protect this Country from Trump’s re-election campaign.
2
The real goal of attacking Iran is not regime change, but long-term destabilization. It was always the goal of the Iraq war too. You have to realize that the entire US Middle East policy is run from Tel Aviv. An unstable Iran, mired in never-ending conflict, is the only suitable objective for Israel. That objective was very successfully achieved in Iraq, which went from being the biggest threat to Israel to a non-entity. This is exactly the same playbook. A lot of Iranian expats are itching for war, thinking that regime change will come about swiftly, thereby restoring Iran's place as a normal country. This is the last thing that Israel and the US Neocons would want. The only goal here is to tear the country apart and leave it unstable for a few generations.
6
The only real question is will the President go to war to again ''wag the dog'' as his poll numbers crumble as we get closer and closer to the election ?
Will the electorate then respond with a massive rebuke to war, and vote for Democrats and peace ? ( even more than what they are going to )
We shall see.
5
@FunkyIrishman
Sadly, most Americans will support Trump in a war of his own creation. Only our troops and civilians in the area of conflict will pay a price. Unfortunately, the area of conflict may extend well into the U.S. given Iran's clients' proclivity for bombing. It will be a lengthy horrible disaster, not a quick rejection of Trump.
1
Unilateral actions are a sign of a country over reaching and in decline. The new order demands multilateral strategies and actions, something neoconservatives and the current administration somehow fails to grasp.
4
Again. We've seen this buildup to war movie way too many times before, it never ends well for us. The Saudis and Israel want us to fight Iran as their proxies - who gains and who loses? We all lose.
8
Mr, Kristof nobly spends his career shining light on corners of the world where human suffering is occurring. In so doing he bring attention to the plight of people who need help. It is very admirable.
He will need to clone himself, or at least train a small army of devoted disciples because the future will include climate change and growing fascism.
We could in the past assume a certain cycle of evil vs. good. They battle back and forth and good mostly prevails and there is human advancement. Climate change has and will change that dynamic. I for one do not expect the human race to react in a good way. And there will be no divine intervention.
Maybe “real men” should forget about going to Tehran and try multilateral diplomacy.
The question is: Will the US survive until we have a "Real" man/woman in charge?
8
Some questions that deserve answers before the Bolton/Pompeo faction of the Republican Party engineers a military "solution" to the Iranian problem: How many innocent civilians will it kill? How many refugees will it create? Which countries will we expect to handle the refugees? How much will we be willing to contribute to mitigate the human suffering it will cause? How many Iranian refugees would we be willing to allow into our country?
1
I don't think diplomacy has a chance in this situation, both parties are extremists ideologues unwilling to compromise and both parties are counting on time to solve their issue. The Iranians are counting on a democratic president in 18 months that will restore the nuclear agreement, while Bolton (and the Saudis and Israelis) are counting on the sanctions to bite and lead to an uprising and regime change.
I am guessing that the Iranians calculations are more realistic as Trump losing next year is much more likely than the Iranian turning against its rulers that is facing up to the great Satan.
5
This is the precise moment we have all feared since Trump took power.
Will he listen to John Bolton and send more young American's to their deaths on foreign soil for absolutely no good reason? Or will he listen to the generals and intelligence pros who know better?
I fear the former, but pray for the later...
3
If anyone actually believes Iran has maintained the original agreement with President Obama, and no nuclear weapons are being constructed, I have a magic flute to sell.
Brought about by pessimistic folk on the Trump Party, we gave away billions to Iran during Obama's term for this agreement.
Another Trump/Bolton lie. We returned 4 billion dollars of Irans' funds we seized from Iran as a portion of the agreement in Obamas' term! Wise move, though Trump BROKE the agreement on his terms when he became the Electoral College POTUS.
Trump is not only putting the people of the United States in terrible danger, he is putting the free World in terrible danger by his overstepping Irans hope to get enough oil sold to survive as a Country and support it's people. Granted the way to sell their oil cannot be completed by attacking other Countries ships getting oil from the Gulf. Though that is where diplomacy may enter, choosing that over deadly and destructive war as Trump is threatening. Remove Him, not the people of the USA.
2
You are wrong about everything but it wouldn’t matter to you if I pointed out your errors, so I won’t. Here we go again, lies to make going to war seem reasonable. Who gets rich from these wars? Bolton has been a war monger during his entire public career. Trump needs a war to get re-elected. If we the people fall for these lies again then we do deserve the government we have. Condoleezza Rice is being interviewed by the networks on Iran. You couldn’t make this dangerous nonsense up if you tried.
1
When will America learn? A good question. Iran is repressive, but why bang the drums for war? We made the mistake in Iraq, claiming possession of WMDs, none were found, but gave rise to the Taliban. Now, did Iran actually attack those tankers? Maybe they did, maybe they did not. Could this possibly be a manufactured reason for war? Our allies, disparaged by that man in the WH have questions about the attacks, and given that the words from this administration cannot be trusted, they aren't in any hurry to join in in a potential conflict, which would truly be ugly.
Iran, pushed into a corner has predictably responded. When the U.S. decided to abandon the imperfect nuclear deal (brokered by the Obama administration), and impose further sanctions, the die was cast for escalating tensions.
I sincerely hope (wishful thinking here) that we are not heading towards yet another Middle East war, which the outcome would not be pretty.
1
Trump has signaled pretty plainly that if we get into a shooting war, nuclear weapons are on the table. He said early on, why have nuclear weapons if we can't use them.
3
If you liked the war in Iraq and the sixteen years of still-unfolding aftermath, then you'll love any new military conflict with Iran. All we are saying is give war a chance!
4
One major difference is: With someone like Bush as a Republican who went into Iraq and even Obama later as the inheriting president who had to follow along, there was still the concept of good government and spreading democracy. As it concerns Trump, today’s Republicans and Iran - no such venture would be proposed , would it ? These guys don’t believe in it.
3
I doubt Bush/Cheney cared about spreading democracy. Cheney cared about the money that he was going to make, and did make, by invading Iraq. Bush cared about revenge. My guess is spreading democracy is an elaborate ruse they spread for the masses.
2
Nicholas, recklessness is the correct word for the Trump approach, not for the Iranian. It is the USA that left the 5 + 1 agreement, not Iran.
And no, readers who see this as just another USA attack on Iraq are wrong. Iran is the one Middle Eastern country with highly educated women, take note of who got the Field prize in mathematics a few years ago, surrounded by countries in ruin to varying degrees and the one that isn't Saudi Arabia, that with the full support of the Trump administration wages endless war on the children of Yemen.
There are no places left to take in fleeing Iranian civilians, the world, And China still runs on oil, much of it Iranian.
Just remember, even Hillary Clinton declared in an infamous statement, that she was ready to obliterate Iran. Bolton can hardly wait to fulfill her promise.
War on Iran, whether one bomb at a time or one superbomb, is guaranteed to end any pretense on the part of my country of birth, that it is an enlightened nation.
I have had the good fortune to work for many years at the Red Cross with Iranian-born Swedes in helping asylum seekers and to develop close friendships with many such. Their families, not the Ayatollah's, are the people who suffer from Trump sanctions.
The unintended consequences of dropping the first bomb on Iran are beyond imagining.
They include the end of the American Empire. The Russians and the Chinese await.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
7
Pompeo and Bolton, crusaders to their cores, have found a willing dupe in Trump.
They seem eager to ignite a corner of the world in order to watch it burn.
Both Pompeo and Bolton are making up for lost time since they were denied an opportunity to mastermind conflict in a post 9/11 conflict.
Time is short and there are legacies to be secured.
All they need is a match and a reliable source for cannon fodder.
All of them dancing to a deadly waltz composed by Vladimir Putin.
5
America’s feckless leader has dealt us the imminent spectacle of Iraq redux.
Bush Jr. was handily reelected in 2004 after waging an illegal war on Iraq. It took years for analysts and pundits to understand the costs of that war, which continue to reverberate through the Western world.
Trump is surrounded by a group of hawks who are the spitting image of Cheney and Rumsfeld, and together they are engaged in a game of brinksmanship with Iran—just as with Trump’s trade war with the world—that benefits only the military-industrial complex and oil companies.
History repeats itself.
2
Pardon the pun but any excuse to go to war with Iran will be (and is being) trumped up. Remember the Gulf of Tonkin scam? Remember Colin Powell’s Iraq WMD scam? Both got the US into intractable wars (Vietnam and Iraq) ending not with honor, but failure on massive scales. The only winners were/are the military industrial complex. And the neocon pushing for military aggression (Bolton) still to this day proclaims that the Iraq war was justified!!! Hello, he’s in the white house, people.
Remember also the Shah of Iran, a puppet placed into power by an Anglo-American effort to corral the Iranian oil reserves after WW2? And the resulting, eventual expulsion of Americans after an embarrassing hostage ordeal? Iran is not a pushover. Iranians are smart but suffering. What would happen if we re-signed the Obama era deal and left them alone for 15 years? No war. Thats what.
12
The immediate root cause is Trump's foolish unilateral decision to pull out of the nuclear agreement with Iran. It has been downhill since, and Trump and his hawkish group of advisors, few of which have any personal military experience, have no plan or ability to start fixing the problem.
11
War would be great for Trump. MBS would send us billion and likely let Trump Inc build a hotel. The investigations into his endless corruption would lessen as a show of national unity, BIBI would similarly focus on regional conflict and not his endless corruption. Jared would rake in all kinds of $$$ from all his investments that would somehow be rented to the USA. What's not to like!
7
"Trump and his aides are right that Iran is repressive, destabilizing and untrustworthy, and it shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear weapons."
trump shouldn't be trusted with nuclear weapons either. When the heads of two governments act like children, they should be both put in time-out and have more reasonable adults take over. I have no idea who in trump's administration that would be now - everyone even vaguely reasonable is long gone - and I'm not sure we can wait until the election. Congress taking back the war-powers would help. So would the 25th.
2
Incredible. More than fifteen years after the trumped-up excuses our lost-the-popular-vote president Dubya invaded and destroyed Iraq, setting off the interminable rolling disaster still faced by our young men and women in the military, we now are seeing Trumped-up excuses to invade and destroy Iran. Chaos seems to be the desired goal of these ill prepared autocrats (I mean our presidents).
3
This is a sensible, nuanced analysis.
1
Here we go again! The US military “protecting US interest” (oil) in the Middle East. Now imagine if Iran or China or Russia flew their drones off the coast of the USA to “protect their interests” (oil) in the Americas. What would the US response be?
3
Sage advice from someone who knows what he's talking about. The chances of blustering Trump, Bolton or Pompeo listening to sage advice? Next to zero. Metaphorically, get ready to take cover and crawl under that desk - thanks to entrenched egomaniacs on both sides of the fence, this is all going in the wrong direction.
2
Oh for the days when we had the right leaders at the right time!
What would have been good times during a "normal" presidency are now in serious jeopardy of devolving into a war manufactured by the Trump administration to distract the nation from his lawlessness.
What a heck of a thing to ask our service members to fight and die for, to save a corrupt president totally centered on enriching himself at the expense of everybody and every thing else.
4
Will congress have the guts not to fund the Iran war that is apparently inevitable? You know Trump will do something to goad them into attacking us. We will NEVER know the truth as to how the war got started. But we will know that blustering ego maniacs and money had a lot to do with it.
Remember, Joe Biden voted a very powerful vote to destroy Iraq and the people of Iraq died.
We can vote a powerful vote against war and Joe Biden. We can vote for Peace.
2
Trump behaved recklessly by pulling out of the Iran nuclear treaty. The rest of it is beginning to sound like the Gulf of Tonkin.
2
"Iraqis hated Saddam but hated even more the idea of Yankee imperialists attacking their nation."
This is completely untrue, and so demonstrably untrue I am tempted to call it a lie. I was part of the initial invasion of Iraq and served in Iraq at different times for over two years. At no point, not even at the worst of the insurgency in 2005 - 2006, did a majority of Iraqis want Saddam back in power. Iraqis never wanted a reversal of the invasion. If you know anything about Iraq, you just have to do the math to know this is true. Basically 100 percent of the Kurds (about 18 percent of the country) were glad to see Saddam gone and were thrilled to have the Americans there--forever. About 90 percent of the Shi'as (60 percent of the country) were always glad to see Saddam gone, and never wanted him back, but some of them (probably half) supported Iran's efforts to get America out of Iraq once Saddam was gone. Even about 20 percent of the Sunnis (about 20 percent of the country) were glad to see Saddam gone and welcomed America staying as long as took to create stability. Furthermore, whenever Shi'a support for America staying flagged, Sunni support increased, because the Sunnis then needed us to protect them from Iran-sponsored Shi'a militias.
43
@Charles Mr. Kristof never said that a majority of Iraqis wanted Saddam Hussein back in power. He only said they hated the idea of "Yankee imperialists" taking over their country more than they hated Saddam. As one can see, ya'll did a world of good there for the Iraqi people. Boeing, Raytheon, GE, Northrop Grumman and the rest of the military industrial cesspool are very proud of Iraq's successful, flourishing democracy. Riiiiight.
97
@Charles Thank you for your post. Mr. Kristof's remark struck me as a rhetorical flourish and factually untrue. Iraq does not have a 'national identity' that can be offended by 'Yankee imperialism,' and the belief that it was possible to create one was just another sad Bush-era delusion. There might very well be widespread antipathy toward Yankee mis-management of the occupation, however. As for Iran, there is such a thing as Iranian nationalism that even minority groups in the country espouse. Quite a different kettle-of-fish.
10
@Charles
If one accepts the population factions were anti Saddam, it does not follow that invasion by a foreign coalition was welcome.
How did the Kurds fair with H. W. Bush? Saddam was gone but then ...
Was the effect of Saddam actually gone, it seems his army contingent merely morphed into the opposing force ...
20
We can debate the true nature of the Iran regime and what if anything we should do about them until the cows come home. But any way you look at it, the USA's approach should be smart; skillful; and resourceful. And the tragedy is that with Trump and Bolton in charge, there's no chance of that. Armed conflict is inevitable.
1
Also, an election is coming up. And, the drumbeat to impeach Trump is only getting louder. A war with Iran would definitely distract from Trump’s troubles at home, while letting Trump supporters accuse anyone who opposes Trump of not supporting the troops.
For Trump, who has no concern for the lives he’s risking, this spat with Iran is a real winner.
1
Trump has tired of Venezuela’s problems since the failure of his efforts there. Unfortunately, this may lead him, Pompeo, Bolton et.al to push farther and faster toward military action with Iran to prove their “real manhood”. I am not religious but God help us all.
3
Prior to Trump ripping up the Iran Nuclear Deal, Iran was "behaving". Their actions now are the result of the Trump Admin's bad faith. I disagree with you that they are both behaving badly. The Trump Administration OWNS this one. With the Trump Admin's belligerence, what is Iran supposed to do?
6
""[Iran] shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear weapons. (Of course, the same is true of Saudi Arabia under Trump’s buddy, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman"
The assumption here is that somehow somewhere the US should be trusted with nuclear weapons. An assumption as reckless as it is crazy.
1
Trump and Iran, are not on a collision course.
BOLTON ... and Iran, are on a collision course.
And that's just the way Bolton wants it.
How is it possible that another bloody war, that the Administration obviouly favors, and that will go on forever, is better than the well thought out negotited agreement that this Administration ditched? Minority presidency should not take us into war. We cannot wait until 2020. Impeach now.
Please recall that Trump said that President Obama would attack Iran to win reelection when he was running for his second term. I wonder where he got the idea that it would work this time around? Would someone please find that quote and put it on the front page.?!
4
The Iran regime sounds like the Trump regime. But, hopefully, the Dotard's bone spurs will keep us out of war.
1
Contradictory behavior of Trump administration is a matter of major concern. On the one hand, he unilaterally withdrew from the working Iran nuclear deal and reimposed the sanctions but at the same time he warns Iran against consequences of violating the terms and conditions of the nuclear deal. Iran did its best to remain committed to its nuclear deal obligations despite the U.S. actions, but it has started running out of patience as it is increasingly becoming clear that it will not be able to benefit from any economic rewards it expected and was promised to reap when nuclear deal was struck. Trump is primarily responsible for any escalation of this perilous situation. Clearly, Trump perceives that he can survive under chaotic and tumultuous situations domestically and internationally and perhaps creating such conditions in the Middle East is the objective he is pursuing.
198
@Farzad
This is well reasoned. The Kingdom recently lost its ability to terrorize intnl. crude oil markets when frakking technology turned the US into a self-sufficient producer almost overnight. A corrupt US administration is exactly the kind of juice the Saudis would need to entice onto the scene to get prices moving up again, because jawboning via opec and starting local conflicts sans America has lost its magic. They didn't just suffer oil's low price, they lost the ability control price because America was both the microphone and the market.
America derives a great advantage and strength from the U.S. dollar being the world's currency. This extends from straight economic benefits to geopolitical benefits, enhanced strength militarily and increased leverage for humanitarian efforts as well.
Reneging on the Iran deal was bad enough, and cost us credibility for any future negotiations. (And will also likely inspire Iran to follow the model of North Korea--if you develop actual nuclear weapons and the missile capacity to hit the U.S., the U.S. will back off of rhetoric, ease up on sanctions, and give cover to other nations that want to ignore sanctions and trade with you).
But using the dollar as a hammer to try to force European nations to violate the deal as well will have wider-ranging lasting impacts. There have always been efforts and rumblings that the world needs to have an alternative to the dollar. Trump misusing the U.S.'s unique position in global finance with such objective and subjective illegitimacy can only energize those efforts.
Trump is actively and aggressively making America weaker in the long run.
5
Trump listened to flattering but deceitful voices whispering in his ear and advocating for regime change in Iran through economic pressure tactics. But those voices, in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel and members of his own administration secretly have an entirely different form of regime change in mind, namely war. And that would, as usual, involve an almost exclusive American sacrifice of our youth,our values.and our economic strength.
And, of course, for GOP political operatives who couldn't actually care less about Iran but who are faced with a major mid-term election defeat and internal polling data showing a serious lack of support for Trump's re-election bid, what better time could there be to join the hawks and prepare for and launch yet another war.
3
"shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear weapons...."?
And our moral authority in the matter is what, exactly? Aren't we the nation that routinely threatens military force against any country whose domestic policies we dislike -- and pursues illegal wars of aggression, then walks away from the disaster?
How else is a relatively small country going to protect itself from us, without the nuclear deterrent? Isn't that what our invasion of Iraq taught the world?
Of course, the only adverse consequences are "self-inflicted wounds", as Mr. Kristof points it. Tell that to the civilians, tens of millions of them, on the wrong side of what we call our foreign policy.
245
@jrd: The US is the nation that reserved two intact live cities to compare the effects of nuclear bombs made from uranium or plutonium.
13
@jrd
General Curtis LeMay in charge of bombing Japan did not approve of bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He believed he destroyed everything worth destroying in Japan. However after the two cities were bombed the war ended with out invasion. An invasion would have cost millions of more Japenese lives.
It was not a scientific study.
@JoeG Except that Japan was willing to surrender before the bombs were dropped, with no invasion necessary.
8
This smells exactly like the Cheny/Rumsfeld ploy to induce Congress into agreeing with an attack on Iraq because of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Weapons which did not exist!!! But Congress bought it hook line and sinker.
Intelligence (?) agencies had a German informant who provided secret information on the WMD, UN investigators followed the leads and found nothing. Bush rushed together his invasion and started it before the Press uncovered the ruse.
Now in hindsight, what good did we do? Are the Iraqis better off? Do they have a stable government? How about Libya? How about Afghanistan? How about the funding of the Resistance in Syria? How about Vietnam?
The US has a proven history of emotions getting ahead of strategy. Getting rid of a ruthless dictator sounds like an honorable quest. But if all we accomplish is to make things worse for the citizens, then our planning was worthless and strategy non-existent.
Is Trump rolling over for his buddies the Israelis and Saudis? Maybe he can get a couple of Trump Towers out of the deal.
We're going to send our kids off to fight. Trump/Pompeo/Bolton will have justified killing 10K - 20K of them, for what? Trump Towers? Getting rid of Saudi enemies for them without them losing a man in the deal?
It is happening and Congress needs to say utterly, totally, NO! There are intermediate courses like UN patrols of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Horumuz, and a "no-float" zone for Iranian patrol boats.
408
@dpaqcluck "But Congress bought it hook line and sinker." Congress bought it because in those far-off innocent days, we did not imagine that the President would lie. He must know something we don't, and of course he had access to all the intelligence which was not public knowledge. How naive we all were, and even Congress had to decide whether they believed the President ("They have WMD") or the rest of the world who recognized Saddam's bully-boy strutting as the bluster it was. So here we go again.
16
@dpaqcluck We base all of our intervention on what happened to Japan and Germany after WWII, they went from enemy to successful democracies. However, those were stable countries before the war with a cohesive societal structure. Vietnam did just fine after we left and in hindsight it was a total waste as the communist society ultimately didn't last except on paper
Iran might survive an incursion as a cohesive country but Iraq and the rest of the middle east won't, they are tribal societies with complex things going on that we have no interest in learning.
8
@dpaqcluck Iran is a democracy with a theocratic religious leader (like a pope). We would be harming one of the only democracies in the middle east. Why not bomb Saudi Arabia-- they fund the religion that hates us and the west.
9
It is easy to blame Trump and ignore the other perennially consistently anti-Iranian hawkish contributors to this crisis. These remarkable men and women of various levels of diminishing honesty , missing integrity but unfaltering steady and remarkable capacity of disowning any responsibility have forced the narrative to this impasse .
4
The JCPOA was a great achievement. Trump walked out of it owing to childish spite. He wants to sully Obama's successes.
We know this. We also know that Bolton has been put into a position where he can realize his desire to bomb Iran.
At this time what we cannot predict is by whom or by what means Trump can be stopped from waging war.
Is there not one person in all of the country who can say: when the bombs start falling, innocent lives will be blown to pieces? Perhaps our joint Chiefs of Staff have to step forward. If the US bombs Iran, decent people will pay with their lives for the reckless behavior of Trump's inner circle.
544
@eric williams
Trump and Republican warmongers were all over Obama because after 15 years, the Iranians could go back to developing nuclear weapons. Fifteen years!
In 1980 the general consensus was that the Soviet Union could last another century. In 15 years they were gone.
Republicans didn't think the treaty was flawed: that's a lot of bilge for public consumption. They didn't want it because it removed their pretext for another GOP war.
37
@eric williams,
In fact there are millions of us in this country who can decry the loss of innocent lives from our bombings. A war with Iran is not popular among the majority of us. Our part is to let Trump and Congress know we won't abide it, and, in fact, will cause them all to lose their seats if they go ahead and try it.
23
@eric williams
Civilian's lives were blown to pieces far away from the US during WWII. Yet my German born father always told us children that the US liberated us already in early April 2014 when Patton marched his army by our house and then liberated the Buchenwald concentration camp 130 km away from us a few days later.
As a physicist and former assistant of Otto Hahn, he thought that nuclear arms would only be a counterweight between the US and Russia during the Cold War and would never be used again.
These times are obviously over after the conventional disasters of Vietnam and Iraq, while we now have a draft dodger in the White House who speculates why this country can't use nukes against perceived enemies.
16
We should have learned from the Afghanistan War, in spite of U.S. superior technology and highly trained special forces, without a political objective and strategy to achieve it from the White House, war is unwinnable. Pompeo wants war with Iran because of his Christian nationalism, Bolton because of his decades long militarist imperialism, and Trump because of his friendships with Netanyahu and MBS—no strategy, no understanding of Iran. Trump knows his base doesn’t want a war, but he uses all stick and no carrot to get Iran to negotiate, when they understandably don’t trust the U.S. to keep its word. It’s incredible the lives of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, are in the hands of these men who are no less self-interested or more rational than Iran’s fanatic Supreme Leader Khamenei.
11
Iran appears to have many in the U.S. supporting theocratic rule along with its history of creating proxy wars. A bit baffling until you understand it is party first, country second with the left. The U.S. has consistently requested negotiations with Iran only to be rebuffed time and again. The Iranian leadership is threatening the global trade by attacking international shipping and it is time for them to come to the negotiating table or face reprisal.
There was a deal with Iran. That Iran was following. And it was preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons.
Trump abandoned it without any justification, and began waging an economic war against Iran with the express hope that he could literally starve Iranians to such an extent that they would demand a new government. Such efforts to harm civilians to try to effect political change is usually referred to as terrorism. All because the Saudis splashed Trump's face all over buildings when he visited, and gave his son-in-law $100's of million of dollars.
Even after all of that, Iran has still honored its end of the deal. All Trump has to do to achieve peace is to show that America is a country of its word too.
So how is Iran the aggressor here?
7
@PH Wilson
Let's at least be honest. The Obama agreement allows Iran to develop nuclear weapons after 15 years. If it had actually prevented Iran from ever developing them we would still be a party.
@clarity007
"If it had actually prevented Iran from ever developing them we would still be a party." if Iran agreed to this permanent ban we stil be talking about attacking Iran because of its other activities - like missile program or just plainly for being Iranian .
15 is years is along time If used honestly and productively, the behaviors of Iran would change and would have even changed by this time.
US may not get the best deal but the deal was fine with the neighboring countries like China Russia and Oman Qatar Iran Pakistan and Iraq. EU was fine with it.
1
It is one of those ironies that history regularly serves up to us that our invasion of Iraq and removal of Saddam's Ba'athist government eliminated Iran's major enemy in the territory. Now the Iranians have more influence in Iraq that the US does.
3
I sure wish that Mr. Kristoff's level of experience, reason, and knowledge could influence our leaders in Washington. Instead, we have "the thing," bolton and pompeo. I fear all we can do is cross our fingers. Thank you Mr. Kristoff. Excellent essay.
8
Nick, very disappointed in your trying to make it look like each side is equally at fault. 90% of the provocation is on our side. Remember that knowledgeable democrats bought into the lead up to Iraq. They tend to support war. Why are we flying drones over Iran? There is still no proof that Iran damaged the tankers.
Iran is a sovereign country and we are trying to destroy their government and starve their people but you still blame Iran equally. We pulled out of the nuclear deal that they were abiding by. That alone puts most of the onus on us. You are helping trump and he doesn't deserve the help. trump can say he doesn't want war but all his actions indicate otherwise.
Reminds me a lot of the lead up to Iraq and the media buys into it just as you are starting to do.
26
I'm terrified by the daily escalation. It is easy to see Trump, a year from now, down in the polls, being convinced that a war-time President wins elections. It worked for W.
Just like before the invasion of Iran (not to mention Gulf of Tonkin), I am beginning to see opinion pieces just like this one. The view presented in this column closely resembles the statements made by administration. They start out by deploring the idea of war, then shift to "warning" us that it is inevitable.
"Soon it will be too late" is the basic view here. But this is the view that makes it too late. Embedded in this view is the notion that Iran is a "rogue state" - irresponsible, repressive, and so forth. But that sounds like quite a few other states, in eastern Europe, Asia, Africa, South America, not to mention many of the U.S. states if you are poor and especially if you a person of color.
It is easy not to go to war with nations that don't treat their citizens well. We don't go to war with such nations every day.
Perhaps this is something for the Democrats to do while they are not impeaching Trump. We need our representatives to say, early and often, loudly and clearly - no war with Iran!
8
You might be stretching the ‘war is a vote getter’ premise. 1. Geo H.W. Bush won a war handily v Saddam but was not re-elected. 2. Reagan did not have a war and was re-elected by the biggest margin ever. 3. LB Johnson escalated a war and was elected once but then chose not to run for re-election for probably those same reasons surrounding Vietnam. 4. Nixon was scaling back the war and was re-elected. 5. Geo W Bush had a Pearl Harbor moment , he did not start that war, he was re-elected in the continuing Sept 11 glow. 6. Bill Clinton mostly avoided war ( Bosnia and Rwanda ) when US intervention could have been easily justified, he was re-elected. 6. Truman had the Korean Conflict to bolster him if the ‘war time’ president premise holds. But his polling was weak, he had a Democratic challenger while an incumbent and he lost N.H. early primary. He, like Johnson, chose not to run. It’s a mixed bag.
1
@Suburban Cowboy Bush had a "Mission Accomplished Moment" that pointed to his motivation to initiate hostilities against Iraq. The "9-11 Moment" was rather different than Pearl Harbor where much of U.S. war-fighting capacity in the Pacific was nullified. The response against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan produced few targets to cheer the public about victory. It was clearly going to be a slog. What sold Iraq for Bush was that U.S. victory was assured and that Americans would be welcomed with flowers - that could assure a resounding win in 2004 rather than being a winner chosen by the Supreme Court. Were it not for the potential to gain greater legitimacy from a victory in Iraq it is unlikely that Bush would have chosen Iraq as the target for a "safe" war.
Someone must have told Trump that "war-time" Presidents have an advantage in an election. That, in addition to his goal to undo everything POTUS44 did, is a guiding light to his presidency and presidential ambitions. I sure wish Mitch McConnell would remove his head from his shell and do his job to lead balance of power as envisaged by our Founding Fathers. I guess keeping his wife, Elaine, gainfully employed is worth more to Mitch than his country.
4
Setting aside all moral or legal considerations - ALL of which should stop the US from going to war against a country that it has repeatedly destabilized in the past - it seems that there's a fundamental asymmetry in this conflict.
Most Americans do not want war with Iran. Chances are they won't believe any evidence sent their way and US allies are even less likely to believe it. While Bolton might want war, Trump should be wary.
The Iranian regime on the other hand has every reason to test the waters. The shooting down of the drone is for an internal audience. By playing upon historical (and accurate) grievances against the US, it creates support for an aging and unpopular regime. If an invasion happens, the inevitable armed resistance will buttress an old Shia commitment to martyrdom. A limited conflict is unlikely to oust the regime and will almost certainly strengthen its hand.
The Ayatollah's will keep playing this game of chicken. The incentives are misaligned against peace.
5
@Rajesh Kasturirangan The claim is that the U.S. drone was in Iranian airspace. Not a game of chicken but a reminder that Iran is a sovereign country with all rights to its self-defense.
The civilian government of Iran would weakened by a conflict while the IRGC would be strengthened. It took nearly 4 years to open Iran to negotiations from 2010 when sanctions were authorized by the Security Council that were enforced by the P5+the EU and other countries. If the IRGC gains full power there will be no more possibility of negotiations unless they were overthrown. The present government is still empowered to negotiate on the basis that all parties to JCPOA honor its terms.
1
Although I believe Mr. Kristof has previously reviewed the past US-Iran history, the current article doesn’t give mention some of the reasons Iran looks at the US as an existential threat. Control of oil reserves prompted the CIA and MI6 to arrange the overthrow of Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953, replacing him with the hated Shah who ruled Iran until 1979. In 1982, Reagan supported Iraq with intelligence and arms sales in Saddam Hussein’s war with Iran. Near the end of that war, the US shot down an Iranian Airbus A300, with a loss of 290 lives, for which the US later paid reparations and expressed regrets, without apology. US need for an assured oil supply drove much of this but that is no longer the case. Doubt Trump knows any of this or would care if he could follow it.
11
Hasn't anyone else suspected that the supposed attack by Iran against oil tankers is a scam? Remember WMDs that didn't exist in Iraq? First, what kind of military mind devises mines and torpedoes that jump up and explode above the waterline of a ship. The whole purpose of mines and torpedoes is to sink ships, and one does that by having the explosions rip open the ship below the waterline so water can flood in. I have noticed that in all the photos of the burning tankers, the explosions are above the waterline; doesn't that seem odd? It is as if someone wanted to show burning tankers, but that person didn't really want to sink the ships loaded with oil because that would hurt the ships of countries allied with the USA. Who would want to do that? Certainly not Iran because it would make no sense. But, other countries (Saudi Arabia, for example) might find such deceptions useful if they could damage their enemy Iran and increase the pressure from the USA. Because Trump loves the Saudi monarchy, he would be reluctant to question them. Seems like another hustle to me.
8
@Jerry Blanton
It certainly seems to walk, talk, and swim like a duck, now doesn't it? Superb and succinct analysis, Jerry.
1
Bolton and Pompeo are only players because responsible Republicans won't take those jobs. And day by day the growing danger of establishment Republicans shunning this president becomes more and more apparent. It's easy to understand why they wouldn't want to be any part of this White House, but then how do we ask young men and women in the armed services to put themselves in harm's way if political leaders are unwilling to do the same?
7
The talk about sending troops , be it 100, 1000 or 10000 to the Middle East may at best have peripheral bearing on an attack. Certainly, any attack on Iran will be aerial. Probably the attack into Iran will be wholly aerial it and to the extent practical from outside the boundaries it will include a naval blockade and cyber operations. No way ‘boots on the ground’ will occur.
1
@Suburban Cowboy
Closer to the election it will be for "mopping up" and picture taking.
Nick is absolutely right when he says, “The American hard-liners are quite right that the regime is unpopular because of its corruption, incompetence and repression. But Iran also has a deep nationalist streak. . . “ I visited Iran several years ago in an academic capacity. I will never forget taking a long walk with a very progressive acquaintance. Like many such people I met, he had his concerns about the regime. But during our walk he chose to dwell instead on how many classmates he lost in the Iraq-Iran war. Iranians are fiercely patriotic. If anyone thinks they will be bullied into submission by Trump or Bolton, they are badly mistaken.
9
"Both say they don’t want a war but each feeds off the other, and both have behaved recklessly in ways that increase the risk of conflict."
I believe war between the US and Iran is imminent; not because the Iranians want to start a war, but because Trump, Bolton and Pompeo all want it. They all have their own reasons for it, but we know what matters most to Mr. Trump is getting re-elected. And, given the recent poles, he needs to increase his re-election chances by becoming a "war president."
To understand the situation, one should try to view the conflict from an Iranian perspective. Under the US economic sanctions, their country of 80 million is practically being starved to death. The US and its allies have been involved in the sabotage of their infrastructure, killing their scientists, and organizing demonstrations and mob attacks in their southern cities.
Given the above, they are asking themselves: If the US does not "want a war", then why is it sending surveillance planes over Iran? Or, if we accept the US claim, why is the US sending the planes so close to Iranian borders? Why the US want to collect military information, if its military has no plans for a military attack?
6
@Eddie B.
War mongers always say they don't want war. They want submission without war then say it was forced upon them.
2
A war with Iran would all the US to take control of oil that ships to China reducing Chinese oil by 6 to 7%. Furthermore, it would give the US a strategic spot next to Pakistan.
1
As usual, the morally confused come out of the woodwork here.
1. Iran - bad, for 40 years, making trouble throughout the world, used a weak “nuclear agreement” to expand those efforts.
2. US - good, (not perfect), protecting order in the world and promoting human rights and lifting up former enemies and rivals.
It would be good to drop the campus radicalism and dislike for Trump and see clearly what’s going on.
3
@KJ McNichols - I'd recommend you look at history and the repercussions of the US and UK backed Iranian coup in 1953. The coup overthrew the last democratically elected leader of Iran and replaced him with a Dictator. Much of what you term "bad, for 40 years" stems from the involvement and intervention of the "good US".
3
@KJ McNichols It's apparent what is going on. The Trump admin threw away a deal simply to undo yet another Obama legacy, with no real plan in place other than war.
3
@KJ McNichols Which country has been invading and bombing other countries. I'll give you a hint, it's not Iran.
1
Republican Presidents facing reelection challenges need a war near the end of their first term. History proves it, and we are likely to relive history. Send in the troops - it seems is all we know how to do.
I too have been to Iran, long ago, and learned then that the Iranian people had, and I am convinced can again, have a positive view of Americans - if not America. But acting as overlords will not win hearts and minds. That will take more intelligence than this current administration can muster.
Isn't this just ducky?
22
@Pierre D. Robinson, B.F., W.S.
Hmmmm. Critical of U.S. leadership but not Iranian.
Where is there a free press? Where is there theocratic
rule and no free press?
@clarity007
The world does not revolve around American ideals. The world consists of many countries, states and includes hundreds of languages and cultural and societal rules. Change usually occurs when one group is willing to sacrifice everything for the ability to live under the principles they perceive as “right “.
American leadership is heading in the wrong direction- I along with many of my fellow citizens do not support this and will resist it.
3
It is hard to imagine that the U.S. and our allies can’t escort these tankers safely. We spend $700 billion on defense and we can’t stop these attacks? We can bill Oman, UAE, Qatar , Kuwait for the protection.
2
I don’t think Oman exports oil. I would bet the oil sellers are F.O.B. which means it is the buyer and the carrier who assumes the transport risk and associated costs.
2
@John C It'd be real easy to protect them if we are the ones doing the damage.
1
What the Trump Party rulers know nothing about:
diplomacy
1 : the art and practice of conducting negotiations between nations
2 : skill in handling affairs without arousing hostility
(Merriam-Webster)
6
Mr. Kristof, the title of your piece is incorrect. It should read "America and Iran are on a collision course as a result of the actions of dj trump". Let's be clear that trump initiated the current situation. Any grievances the U. S. has could have been handled through diplomacy. If there is war it is Americans who will pay the price in blood and pain -- not trump and his spawn.
42
Thank you for your clear-headed and knowledgeable article. It is very sad that:
“to see how distrustful our allies have become toward America. Instead of forcing Iran into submission, Washington’s incompetent bullying of Europe and Asia to join Iran sanctions has managed to antagonize our oldest friends, push Iran back toward a nuclear path and increase the risk of war.”
8
"The only thing we learn from history is that we don't learn from history." - Hegel
24
Ed Mahala is right. We don't learn from history. The Israelis and Saudis (Sunnis) want a war with Iran (Shiites). Iran is a repressive, corrupt regime. However, the U.S. doesn't care about freedom for any country. As long as a country is loyal to the U.S. and lets us put military bases on its soil and gives us its agricultural and mineral wealth at discount prices, we don't care about its abuse of its people. We haven't learned our lesson from Vietnam. We thought we could force the Vietnamese people to love a puppet regime that would do what the U.S. said and they didn't. And the communist were unfortunately the strongest of the groups seeking independence from foreign domination. Wake up America the HAWKS are on the march towards war again.
2
Donald Trump wants a war to look good. And he's going to get one because no one around him, not Mike Pompeo, not John Bolton, not any U.S. Intelligence or any military adviser is going to tell him anything different from what he wants to hear.
Plus, he has Mitch McConnell and a Republican-controlled Senate on his side.
It makes no difference what the outcome is, how many soldiers and innocent civilians die, or how many other countries get involved, because this president never thinks that far ahead.
The Middle East, which has always been a smoldering tinder box is on the verge of exploding unless cooler heads prevail.
And by all given appearances on both sides, that is precisely what is lacking.
14
As long as Trump is physically safe and can obtain personal advantages from whatever situation he thinks can keep him in power he doesn’t hesitate to endanger the country at any level, domestically or abroad. If something goes wrong it would be Obama’s fault, after all.
32
I cannot understand people who are eager for war. Are they too young to remember any past wars? Do they not know the cost? Our soldiers are still dealing with the traumas and injuries they suffered in Vietnam, Iran and Afghanistan. Many of the haunted faces of the homeless that sleep on streets all over our country are the faces of veterans. How can they wish for more and more and more young men and women to be so afflicted? War is and should always be the very last resort, when all other attempts to deal with international disagreements have been tried. Trump has tried nothing and is not equipped to find solutions. As Eisenhower said: "War settles nothing."
47
@Ms. Pea What we see are the manipulation of the POTUS by a few radical zealots in the Administration, namely John Bolton and Mike Pompeo. Their position is extreme and not widely held by most Americans. This situation is being foisted by a few extremists on an American public that is unwilling to go along.
4
Seems that maybe words and actions really do matter, and I am talking about the words and actions of #45. I wonder if we would be having all the issues at the southern border at this time if it weren't for the words and actions of #45, the years leading up to now the numbers of border crossings were at all time lows, now its called a crisis. The United States maybe soon in conflict or all out war with Iran because of actions and words by #45, because one has to wonder would be even be here if we hadn't pulled out of the agreement signed by the past administration along with the other countries. While whether the agreement may or may not have been the best one possible it seemed to be working, certainly it would be better millions of dollars spent or most important the loss of any lives. What happening at the border and what might be in the future with Iran I place squarely on the shoulders of #45, his words and actions are coming back to haunt not just him but all Americans, and probably are allies.
25
@Ricky Broken English? Your point is unclear.
After reading several comments, it strikes me that we have forgotten the terrible toll of Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan and for what?
China and Russia (and North Korea) can sit back and watch the United States waste more of it's youth and money on a senseless war. China and Russia will support Iran from behind the scene and Europe, if they participate at all, will give token support. This is what Trump has caused by listening to our friends in Saudi Arabia and Israel, and his war hawks Pompeo and Bolton while alienating our long time allies.
51
We have previously, on numerous occasions, seen the tactic of openly provoking a weak potential adversary into taking some feeble action against the U.S. or an ally and then coming down on it like a ton of bricks. Yet Americans continue to swallow these jingoistic deceptions out of a false sense of patriotism and let themselves become dragged into conflict. At least in the next war (I hope) draft dodgers won't have to flee to Canada. But more Americans will move north anyway because they can no longer stand to see what their country has become.
31
Pompeo says war. Bolton says war. Netanyahu says war (as long as Israel doesn't have to send more than token support). MBS says war (as long as Saudi Arabia doesn't have to send more than token support). Putin says NO war. I wonder what Trump will do. No one knew that the Middle East was so complicated!
26
President McKinley did not want a war, yet reality intervened and then rather suddenly he was a War President. President Trump thinks he can handle chaos, the problem is he does not control outcomes.
8
@John McMahon No, Trump wants to INDUCE chaos. It's his comfort zone.
6
@Kay Tee No, Trump IS chaos.
Here's a word that Trump and his acolytes have never heard: hubris. It's only two syllables and should be easy to learn. It is that hubris that has led America to swagger its way into far too many wars and kill far too many people. There seems to be a wide- spread belief that people in other countries are inferior, care less about their homelands, and are less zealous in the defense of their countries than Americans and don't mind being pushed around. Those assumptions didn't work out too well in Iraq, Afghanistan and Viet Nam.
This administration has pushed Iran into a corner, and Iran has a right to defend itself.
How would Americans react if the situation were reversed? Americans rarely ask that question.
71
Reciprocity , call it role reversal or ‘walk a mile in another man’s shoes’ , is fundamental to ethics and philosophy. I’d agree, many Americans are loath to consider both sides of the coin.
10
@Suburban Cowboy
The prerequisite for reciprocity is humility. Indeed a very rare commodity in the White House!
9
@Stephen Landers Could you please submit your message again tomorrow—=and the day after that — and again the day after that—- and —-every day until our country “gets it”
3
It is difficult to think of any military intervention undertaken by the United States since the WW2 that has been successful in its overall outcomes. The only one that could conceivably be considered as 'successful' might be the war in the Balkans against Slobodan Milosevic's regime in Serbia and even that is debatable.
Of course one has to define 'successful' but I think most people would agree that if everyone is worse off afterwards including the victors and the population at large, then the war was a failure as in the case of Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya etc.
It is difficult therefore not to come to the conclusion that the US ought to stop meddling in the affairs of other countries and concentrate on its domestic problems instead while using the vast amounts of money that these wars have cost to pay for solutions to these problems.
23
@RHR
But what would we do with all these generals without wars?
OH.... maybe hold a few accountable sometime for all the blood spilled and treasure waisted.
1
If Trump goes to war bring the draft back and make the rich GOP kids go in the military. No more buying their way out or getting fake foot bone spur exemptions. I am a retired Army vet and would like to see the women drafted this time. I served so should they.
47
@D.j.j.k. I agree. Abolishing the draft was a genius move by the war hawks. Bring back the draft and any questionable war will bring the anti- war protesters into the streets in overwhelming numbers.
6
@D.j.j.k. I am with you, i think if we had a draft, people would think differently about how they vote. Also none of this deferment of going to college nonsense, everyone goes.
5
Not nearly as scary as a nuclear-armed Iran chanting "Death to America".
Now is the time to stop that. They are burning tankers of friendly and allied countries carrying petroleum products to (mostly) other friendly and allied countries, and threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz to shipping of friendly countries. Mine Iran's harbors. Then they'll negotiate seriously.
4
They already negotiated seriously. Trump breached the deal that Iran was in compliance with.
38
@Jonathan Katz jCPOA prevented Iran's development of nuclear weapons to at least 2030. The agreement is structured that sanctions could be snapped back even beyond 2030 if Iran resumed development of nuclear weapons. Read the agreement.
The U.S. initiated economic warfare against Iran to totally cut off oil exports and restrict most other trade at a time when the economy of Iran is being devastated by an extreme and prolonged drought. If the territory were a U.S. state it would have been declared a disaster zone and receive emergency assistance.
John Bolton, the architect of this abominable policy, has designed a process to exclude the possibility of negotiations between the present government of Iran and the U.S. There are two options - the government of Iran is overthrown and the U.S. deals with whoever emerges, or John Bolton is fired and the president appoints foreign policy leadership with the capacity for diplomacy.
11
@Jonathan Katz
Now that we've pushed Iran into a corner with a choke hold on their throat and a knife to their gut, tried to destroy their economy by coercing (probably former) allies to stop buying their oil, let's mine their harbors. That sounds like a plan. I'm sure it will bring them to the peace table.
3
When America is confronted by bad state actors who wish our destruction, it is not helpful to wring hands amd hope it will go away.
First it was Reagan who would start the nuclear conflagration that never came and now Trump.
Your analysis is very sound, but the hand-wringing is what I will most remember about this piece. And it is worthless.
We need guys like you on the ground helping human beings, not giving advice. What our Presidents face is not work most of us could handle and this article proves that fact.
1
"International force"? "Secret diplomacy"? One of the many disastrous things about how Trump operates is his belief that he, all by his lonesome, can and will fix things. He seems to hate coalitions of any kind having denigrated NATO, the UN, the WTO, the EU etc. He has alienated our allies to the point that they quite reasonably do not trust him (or, by extension, the USA).
As to "secret diplomacy," well Trump's base believes that diplomacy is weakness. They like their tough guy, who bullies the rest of the world into submission. "Secret" is amusing since Trump cannot keep his mouth (or twitter finger) quiet about much of anything for long. He'd have to at least put out teasers about "big things" happening or coming. This administration could only do 'secret' it they didn't tell they guy in the Oval Office.
29
Iran is a stuffed shirt on the international scene. They have the population of Mexico with only a seventh of its GDP.
What Iran has is the weight of a glorious past as a once major power in the civilized world. Unfortunately for them, it drives them to put guns over butter.
Mexico has AMLO while Iran has Khamenei. Which one is better to lead his nation to greater prosperity?
1
@Kevin Blankinship
The real problem is that there are Medieval Religious Zealots trying to govern Iran in the 21st century! You do not have to be a "brain surgeon" to understand that Religion and Politics do not mix! Why the Western Nations need to be involved in the internal politics of this Nation is unnecessary and beyond belief! I if its about Oil, there are plenty of reserves, worldwide, and located in more Pro Western countries who would welcome Western investment in developing there resources. Tyrants and Tyrannical Governments are eventually overthrown, and the lessons of History prove this. Common sense says "leave them alone", we do not need another "Iraqi debacle", or for that matter, Iran!!!
@Kevin Blankinship "Guns over butter." Great statement. Now, if only the folks in 'Merica didn't do the same, perhaps we could live peacefully on this planet.
Maybe the very stable genius can threaten Mexico and Canada with 25% tariffs and make them either go alongside us to war in Iran, or pay for it.
But we all know whose kids won't be going, because they would lose their inheritance.
15
Wag the dog. Only this is no movie, it is all too real.
11
I believe that Trump is really looking for a distraction from the presidential campaign. He is sick enough to go to war to make himself look like a hero.
53
I totally agree. Presidents have done this before.
5
Are we going to double down on the crime the US committed in 1953 by overthrowing Mossadegh? We've been paying for that crime ever since. Will we not learn?
Btw, there is another nation in the Middle East that is "repressive, destabilizing and untrustworthy, and it shouldn’t be trusted with nuclear weapons." The nation it is not PC to name...
25
Democrats believe the Trump administration is correct" sounds like an oxymoron, and "It’s not impossible that Iran is being framed" feels eerily like déjà vu.
Recall the Lavan affair in 1954 in which Israel hired Egyptian Jews to explode bombs in a mosque, trying to make it seem like the Muslim Brothers had carried out the attack.
Not so farfetched given the current actors who appear to be biting to start a war with Iran. Could it be the ultimate deflection?
15
Trump and Bolton are madmen and unstable and leading us to war. Gee, it would be nice to hear some push back from our two intrepid, or rather, inept and fossilized leaders, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer about this threat. Where is the Democratic response to all this war mongering? Probably where it was during the run up to the Iraq war. Absent and cowed.
11
@FXQ They usually end up supporting it.
Mohammed bin Salman, Netanyahu, and Trump - not exactly Roosevelt, Churchill, and de Gaulle. Not exactly men you would want to fight and die for.
43
@jim morrissette Don't forget Jared!!
1
"Either back down or resort to military tools"
The problem is that it is not only Trump. Almost the whole political spectrum in the US has adopted the credo that the US should rule the world and that any country doing something the US doesn't like is an insult.
It is out of that attitude that Trump has imposed his extraterritorial sanctions that clearly violate the principles on which our world order are based.
It looks like Iran has adopted the position that if the US really manages to block all its oil exports it will block the oil export of the whole Gulf region. The "limpet mines" are probably a warning - although it may be that some other power is using missiles to increase the damage to make Iran look bad.
It is hard to accuse Iran of terrorism when you know that both Iran and Southern Syria face at the moment waves of terrorist attacks in which the US very likely or (in the case of Southern Syria) certainly has a hand.
14
No president, even a thoughtful and competent one, should have the power to wage recreational war without congressional approval. People have known that for some time but having an unstable child in charge of the US has made that peril much more obvious.
The all volunteer military was another mistake. When people had to face the risk of their own children dying in a war they were much more invested in the decision making.
Additionally the US has to get over its obsession with running the entire planet. So what if Iran is at times a bad actor? So is North Korea, Saudi Arabia and lately even Israel. Old bone spurs does not appear to have a problem with those countries, so why the obsession with Iran?
53
Iran is being framed. Israel, the Saudis and our resurgent neocons want to arrange an incident that will compel us to go to war.
The American people don't want war with Iran. Our tough guy president broke the anti-nuclear deal which guaranteed peace. He is squeezing them with sanctions which were not part of the deal. We Americans and the rest of the world need to stop him before he does any more harm.
In my opinion we should start impeachment, not that it will get past this senate, to stop the rush to war.
34
Why do some believe 45 about anything?
Bolton, Pompeo with 45 see this as a grand war opportunity.
A war now serves many purposes. Timely distraction for our upcoming election is one.
Their war is coming for our grandchildren.
When the Draft is needed, make sure every Senator's Son and Daughter serves.
Peace on Earth.
30
Trump's instincts are vs. war. But in his quest for re-election and resultant immunity from prosecution for many of his crimes he could choose war as a way out. That is how evil regimes usually act to divert attention from their crimes.
28
Three years ago, Iran's ability to produce a bomb was constrained for 15 years by the multinational Iran nuclear agreement, and Iran was in compliance. Iran was not attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States had strong allies - the Europeans, China, and Russia, in its dealings with Iran.
Now thanks to the Trump administration's senseless withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement and attempts to prevent Iran from exporting oil with the "maximum pressure" campaign, Iran is threatening to start enriching uranium, tankers are being attacked, and the U.S. is all alone, having antagonized our allies. This is a crisis of Trump's own making, and you have to ask yourself if this is really about creating a distraction from his mounting legal troubles at home.
113
@Edie Clark Correct, with one missing point: Netanyahu.
1
" It’s not impossible that Iran is being framed, but even knowledgeable Democrats believe the Trump administration is correct about Iran’s responsibility."
What in the world this is supposed to mean? These things are said to provide excuse for Democrats and others to support the war if it happens. As the elections draw closer, the Dems, at least the main ones will support Trump's measures against Iran as they don't want to be framed as Un American by the Trump campaign. It's a sham, every bit of it. If there is proof it needs to come out loud and clear. Of course if proof is not available, it can always be manufactured.
39
Nicholas Kristof writes that the Saudi Crown Prince is "Trump’s buddy." And President Obama kissed the Saudi King's hand. And President Bush worked for the Carlyle Group which has a long history of business with the Saudi royal family.
7
“Haven’t we learned lessons? Maybe ‘real men’ should forget about going to Tehran and try multilateral diplomacy.”
I doubt there are many who would accuse war hero Winston Churchill of not being “a real man,” but he knew that whenever possible -“Meeting jaw to jaw is better than war.” Our president can compare himself to Winston Churchill all he likes, he is a walking/talking caricature of “toxic masculinity.”
37
Want to know what's really scary? This romanticized view of Iran the bloggers continue to embrace. America and Iran are playing a deadly game of chicken waiting to see who will blink first. But of course America is always wrong and Iran is perfectly justified in doing whatever it pleases.
3
In 2015 the 5 permanent members of the Security Council plus the EU signed the JCPOA with Iran. The Security Council authorized JCPOA via UNSCR2231. This concluded a process of stopping nuclear weapons development by Iran that had been underway from about 2004 initiated by France, Germany and the U.K. In 2009 The Security Council summit on nuclear weapons proliferation built support for multilateral action with strong sanctions against Iran authorized by UNSRC1927 in 2010. These sanctions honored by all EU member states, China, Russia, the U.S. and other countries significantly reduced Iran's oil exports. In 2013 Rouhani was elected president of Iran to open the possibility of forgoing nuclear weapons in exchange for relief of sanctions and steps towards expanded trade with the West. Non-nuclear issues were not in the scope of JCPOA that lifted some sanctions in 2016.
Trump sought congressional support for a better deal with Iran. Receiving none, he turned to Bolton's plan for regime change in Iran despite CIA confirmation that Iran had not violated JCPOA. Cutting Iran's oil exports to zero at a time when its economy has been devastated by an extreme drought risks creating conditions as in Syria before the civil war. The EU, a key driver of JCPOA, is a neighbor of Iran. The EU fears massive flows of refugees as much as it fears nuclear bombs from Iran.
Bolton expected regime change not negotiations. The U.S. needs to change its approach to enable negotiations not Iran.
21
We have already started a war with Iran, a financial one. Trump needs to realize there is no way countries like Iran, NK, China, Cuba are going to back down and roll over the way he wants them too, they are going to fight back as best as they can. As far as a shooting war with Iran, what will that prove? The world knows we will win in just days and then what, another Iraq?
13
@Thomas Renner Doubtful that the people of Iran believe the U.S. would "win" in just days. Iran has a vastly different geography and 4X the population of Iraq and a higher industrial / technical base than Iraq ever had. If Bolton's plan succeeded, however, civil war could be a result.
JCPOA was a major step forward and achievement for the Security Council, including the U.S., to limit nuclear weapons proliferation. It could have been a guide for success with the DPRK. U.S. actions have weakened the Security Council as an institution after consensus was built for multilateral action with the leadership of former president Obama that engaged both Russia and China with the EU. Such multilateral action is likely to be badly needed as the world faces climate catastrophe in the years ahead. But the credibility of the Security Council has been damaged by irresponsible actions of the Trump administration.
14
@Thomas Renner --" The world knows we will win in just days and then what, another Iraq?"
Really? What happens when Iran destroys the oil field in Saudi Arabia as well as others in the region? I wonder what kind of support the US will receive from our allies -- I'm guessing none. BTW-- good point about Iraq.
2
I hear only Trump, Bolton, Pompeo but really it is us, the American people who are belligerent. We have a very violent society. And Trump is only channeling the most violent and ignorant part of society.
If we start another war, there is a good chance we lose it. We haven't won a war in a long time.
But the sane forces in society have to ask themselves why we let the morally deficient be so powerful?
Who allowed Hollywood to only produce gore and gun battles?
30
Could there be a trump, Cheney, Gingrich, Romney barbershop quartet to discus strategy? 5x draft dodgers make the best hawks.
37
@Tabula Rasa
Yes, isn't it interesting how brave old men can be with other people's lives, particularly when they were too cowardly to serve themselves.
15
Only Congress is empowered to ask for a declaration of war as set forth in the Constitution. Somehow I can't picture Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Congress declaring war on Iran. Relax bloggers--an Iranian/US war isn't going to happen anytime soon.
@sharon5101, we have had multiple wars since 1945 and not one was a war “declared” by congress. Presidents take us to war, not congress. That’s why we shouldn’t relax.
12
@sharon5101
You just might want to look up AUMF (Authorization for the Use of Military Force) from the Congress to the President. Bush Jr. used it to attack not only Afghanistan bur Iraq as well. The AUMF is still in effect and it seems highly unlikely that Congress will withdraw it. Several attempts to do so proved to be futile.
4
@sharon5101
Really? Did congress declare war on Iraq? The Taliban? Those wars did happen, and they haven't ended yet.
2
Iran is not dissimilar to the USA. Both are large, modern, mostly liberal countries with leaders who the majority of the population agrees are incompetent. Ask the average Persian what they think of their leader. Repeat in America. Iranians simply want to go about their lives, getting an education, supporting their families and living their lives without the threat of nuclear annihilation, the same as Americans. Truly, now is the time for a grass-roots anti-war protest movement. I just hope Americans can hear the sane calls for peace above the noisy saber-rattling.
24
@Jonathan W Rouhani won a landslide victory in the 2017 contested election. He may still have greater respect by more of the people of Iran than does the leader of the U.S.
5
Iran is making every effort to poke America in the eye because they know Trump will never commit to a war. He flip-flops more than any politician in American history. If he sent 100,000 troops, he'd bring 90,000 home the next day. We're already getting whiplash from his indecisiveness.
We're bringing our troops home from Syria! No, wait. Republicans don't like that. Okay, we're bringing our troops home from Afghanistan! No, wait, if we do that then we've lost the war. Let's bring some of the soldiers home. No, wait. Let's send some back. No, wait! We need troops to guard the border! Okay, let's pull some troops out of Korea maybe? No! We have to be ready to invade Venezuela! Oh, never mind. Venezuela is boring.
It's easy to see why Iran doesn't take America seriously anymore. When the rest of the world follows Iran's lead, we'll really be in trouble.
12
@Ryan
We already are in trouble.
The US is no longer respected by anyone because of our lack of leadership and totally inconsistent actions. It turns out that having a mercurial child leading the largest and most powerful nation on earth was not such a great idea after all.
9
War with Iran is just a repeat of War with Iraq to win the 2020 election. It worked for Bush, so it will work for Trump. This folly is all designed to keep Trump as President so he can keep power and avoid prison. War will boost oil prices to help his oil friends both domestically and abroad (Putin and Saudi Arabia). War generates profits for his buddies in the military-industrial complex. Why wouldn't Trump play this card? What can stop him? The Democrats should get ahead of the curve on this issue now to stop this madness!
39
Kristoff,
Thanks again for writing a level headed opinion piece, but you forgot to mention the very significant role of the UAE.
3
There is no "Iran" just as there is no "United States." There are different groups ginning for war in each country and reasonable people in each country trying to bring them back from the brink.
4
@David While Trump removed Mattis, McMasters and Tillerson, however, the DoD and the Department of State largely resist the march to war. Trump would send a strong positive signal if he fired John Bolton, the focus in the U.S. for regime change and war with Iran. Congress could remove Bolton if Trump were incapable by cutting funding for Bolton's salary. The EU could help by sanctioning Bolton and preventing his presence in the EU. Bolton is not a diplomat and enjoys no diplomatic immunity.
Congress should have strongly resisted Trump's exit from JCPOA on the lie that Iran had violated the agreement. Now, that the regime change plan has been operating for nearly a year options are far more limited because Bolton's plan made no provision for negotiation with the present government.
6
There is a pattern here and a “method” to the madness that is about to befall America and Iran. The first step by our “stable genius” is to create a crisis, the second step is to proclaim a solution, and the third step is to call myself — that is, Trump — a hero, a wizard, and the winner. We have seen that pattern with the North Korean “crisis” and the Mexican tariff triumphant “agreement.” Remember, this is a “show,” though a reality show at that. The goal is not to improve humankind, or bring solace to the downtrodden. Rather, the goal is to burnish Trump’s image as a warrior, a hero, and that triumphant autocrat with accomplishments.
Trump’s fixation on Iran is part and parcel of this pattern of crisis creation, a lot of huffing, puffing, bragging, and bullying, and, then, announcing an agreement solving the “ crisis, and proclaiming himself the hero and “stable genius.” That war and countless deaths may result is of no moment to Trump. He relishes in his unpredictability to create chaos on everything he touches. That, too, is part of his game plan, part of his hucksterism and con game, and part of his neediness to be front page in the news. Remember, for Trump, being front page headlines is the object. Whether good, bad, or ugly, or inflicting hurt or death on others is irrelevant to him. He glories in his own triumph, not the betterment of America.
18
There will be a war. Thank Pelosi and Obama for this.
They let Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld AND Bolton slither away after it was proven lead-up to the Iraq war a lie. A lie led to the obliteration of hundreds of thousands of INNOCENT human beings (this includes our soldiers who were lied to) and a trillion dollars wasted. Bolton was there then and he is the main architect behind this farce--you can be sure of that.
I find it sadly-ironic that it was Pelosi's Constitutional duty to investigate the lies that led to the Iraq debacle and she refused based solely on a political calculation. (which turned out to be false) Her decision in 2009 was that an investigation was "off the table".
So here we are, 10 years later, this time it our Republic that disintegrating right before our eyes under this unfit, reckless, ignorant, hateful, dishonest person and the only remedy which might save us all and our beloved Constitution is once again being stifled by this same Speaker and once again for purely political reasons.
Someone needs to tell her, it is her duty--not her option to engage the impeachment clause and let the process play out however that maybe--regardless of how many votes she may lose in 2020.
We are WAY beyond counting votes Speaker Pelosi.
The only thing that MIGHT save s now is our Constitution--if you allow it.
10
@Joey Green I knew that if I read enough comments, I'd find one that blamed Obama for everything.
1
Uh yeah, I think they've learned the lesson, GWB got re-elected despite the obvious evidence of a fake war with Iraq. Wars typically cause Americans to rally round the current administration, until they go wrong. If he think it will earn him another 4 years, I have no doubt Trump will do it.
23
I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss the possibility of "framing" Iran. What does Iran have to gain from blowing up tankers? I'm not sure anything more than just feeling good about some acts of vandalism. What does Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Israel have to gave from making it look like Iranians blew up tankers? Oh I don't know, maybe a US attack on those countries' archenemy Iran?
18
@Dan What Iran gets from blowing up tankers? It sets a clear message: You might have much bigger military power. But if you attack us, it will still cost you.
1
Please be aware that global news outlets are talking less about Trump and Iran and more about the USA's dealings with Iran.
As feared, Mr Trump is having a direct (and most likely) long term impact on US/ international relationships and not, sadly for the better. . . .
12
Kristof, who in 2012 wrote a NYT op-ed entitled "In Iran, They Want Fun, Fun, Fun," now tells us "Trump and his aides are right that Iran is repressive, destabilizing and untrustworthy." But the devil is in the detail, and he doesn't tell readers that Iran hangs gay men; sentences women accused of adultery to death by stoning; oppresses it Kurdish minority; subjects Baha'is to unspeakable horrors; discriminates against Sunnis; persecutes Christians; is responsible for propping up Bashar Assad who has gassed Syrian civilians with sarin and chlorine; and has supplied Hezbollah with more than 100,000 missiles pointed at Israeli cities.
Kristof continues: "In 2015, President Barack Obama achieved a nuclear deal that verifiably kept Iran from developing a nuclear weapon for 15 years or more. It was an imperfect compromise, but it made Iran less worrying for years to come." But Kristof doesn't mention that the unsigned deal failed to prohibit Iran from pursuing its ballistic missile program, i.e. in 15 years Iran could hit NYC and Washington with nuclear weapons. And if, as Kristof admits, Iran is "untrustworthy," why does he think that Iran is meanwhile incapable of pulling the wool over the eyes of the IAEA (the Head of Iran's Institute for Research and Fundamental Sciences recently described IAEA inspectors as "cockroaches" who should not be allowed into Iran. Moreover, if Iran is "untrustworthy," what prevents it from abrogating the deal whenever it suits the mullahs?
4
What is the proposal for a way forward?
5
@JGMaybe if we had less repression in the US, we could serve as good example to Iran.
5
@JG thank you for your analysis. The Obama deal was immensely flawed as Obama was so eager to do a deal with Iran.
1
No face-saving escapes: whose faces? On the one hand an entire nation and on the other, one man. Europe has a major role to play here in showing Trump once and for all its position honouring the original deal, whatever the sacrifice. Better that sacrifice than a regional if not all-out war.
And let Americans know that when Europe opposes Trump, Europe is more than ever America's friend.
30
So far, about the only thing Trump has done in my view is to avoid a war with Iran. Unfortunately, the neocons are in the White House, and they want war with Iran. It will not go well for us.
15
What is scary is that the Republican Party would allow an unstable egomaniac like Trump to become Commander-in-Chief with the power to launch a war for his own personal reasons.
Trump only has his personal interests in mind be it overturning Obama's treaty or stirring up his fanatic base of MAGA-hatters. The last thing on Trump's mind are the needs of the American people.
Trump wants an excuse to start a war with Iran. It changes the front pages away from the Mueller Report and makes him his dream-come-true War Time Dictator like his favorite heroes. What is needed more than anything is for the Democrats to impeach madman Trump as away of distracting him before he launches a deadly strike on Iran that will result in the deaths of untold thousands of innocent people.
20
It wasn't that long ago that you were warning about North Korea in the leadup to the first summit and Trump's love affair with Kim Jong un.
Perhaps flush from the excitement of that "victory," the president thinks he can just will Iran to fall in line, after pulling the rug out from under them last year. And yes, such gall, to demand they comply with a treaty that the US decided not to honor.
At some point, the president has to face the consequences of his actions, but I sure wish it were on something like his obstruction of justice rather than a miscalculation in the Middle East. He's gotten away with so much this far into his term, aided and abetted by sycophants and Senate allies bound and determined to make the most of his presidency for their own goals.
It's not comforting that the folks closest to this mess are all Iranian war hawks: Bolton, Pompeo, and Cotton. I think the president instintively knows this is hardly the time to launch a stupid war, of the sort he campaigned against. But if the bridge has become too far, and they get ensnared, I think he might just realize that he's not as smart as he's been telling his base he is.
16
Hey, what could go wrong? Look how well things turned out when the CIA installed the Shah as the leader of Iran.
22
"A few good options."? I could diffuse the problem in a minute. Lift the economic sanctions against Iran. Actually our economic sanctions against Iran are an act of war and could rightfully be construed as deserving an armed response by Iran against the US and any of our middle east allies.
Someone pointed out to me recently that the war of aggression by Iraq and Saddam Hussein went on for 7 1/2 years and wouldn't have lasted near that long without Iraq and Saddam Hussein getting help from the US. And Israel complains about a few tiny little bombs being launch at them from Gaza by hapless Palestinian refugees. That war of aggression that we helped sponsor cost Iran 100,000 soldiers killed along another 10,000 civilian deaths and 100's of billions of dollars. You can Google it yourself.
16
If Trump get the Islamic Republic to let him build a Trump golf course and a hotel in Tehran then that no doubt will be the end of conflict. Of course the U.S. Taxpayer might have to pay but it should be a small price for peace. This should be easy to do if Trump can sit on Israel to pay its 1bn agreed upon oil debt owed to Iran by Israel. I won't hold my breath
10
It's blatantly obvious that Trump's Iran strategy has been bought and paid for by the Israeli and Saudi lobbies, as well as mega donors like Sheldon Adelson. There's no possible way anyone could argue that it's in the best interests of the US to get dragged into a war with Iran. A country with around 80 million people and is roughly the size of Mexico.
86
I agree with Mr. Kristof in most respects but his assertion that "(Iran) shouldn't be trusted with nuclear weapons" leaves me wondering why not. The U.S., after all, is the only nation on the planet that has ever actually launched nuclear weapons against another country. Should we be forced to denuclearize? How about the PDRK? Or Israel? When the nuclear genie was released from its magic bottle it evolved into an epidemic, and no nation, most especially including the U.S., has retained the moral right to deny any other nation a nuclear arsenal of its own (non-state actors like al-Qaeda and ISIS are, of course, another matter). There are lots of things about Iran that I find repellant (and I've visited that country, as well), not least of which is its government's repressive policies towards its own citizens and its support of the barbarian in Damascus. Still, that government represents no threat to the U.S., with or without its development of nukes. Time to back off, even if that means allowing Tehran and the equally repressive Riyadh to fight it out for the hearts and minds of the Middle East's Muslim community.
comment submitted on 6/20 at 1:06 AM
23
@stu freeman There may be less support for the "barbarian in Damascus" and more the prevention of a takeover of Syria by Sunni Jihadists. Iran supported forces fought with the U.S. led Anti-ISIS coalition to defeat ISIS and other Sunni jihadists in Syria.
Iran has contested elections and women's rights are respected not even speaking of the right to drive a car. Saudi Arabia is vastly more repressive than Iran.
3
@stu freeman Do you remember when Iran held 50 American hostages and ended the Carter presidency? How's that for regime change? Iran calls the US the "Big satan." Iran is certainly a major threat to Israel, our most valued ally in the Middle East. A nuclear Iran means a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, with Saudis, Egyptians, Turkey, and others all developing nuclear weapons. Still think it's time to back off?
1
Trump with his reckless approach to dealing with Iran has boxed himself in not only in the Middle east, but in his campaign for president as well. On the one hand a war with Iran might further rally his base around him, but he has also declared that he would not fight another war in that area of the world. Foreign relations is not a game though Trump has treated it like one with his abandonment of treaties mostly in his attempt to destroy President Obama's legacy, trashed friends and put his faith in enemies who it is unlikely will back him up in his war with Iran.
Trump has made us alone in the world and no one will now rally to us no matter the justice of the cause.
5
"...Iran is repressive, destabilizing and untrustworthy..."
It could be argued that today the United States is also "repressive, destabilizing and untrustworthy".
77
@JL Turriff
Comments like this seem the most dangerous of all, to Americans at least. More dangerous than even the Republicans.
Trump's OTHER handler, Bibi, desperately needs a war with Iran in order to allow him to stay in power, since his pre-indictment hearing is currently scheduled for October 2019, just a few weeks after the upcoming Israeli election (called because Bibi was unable to form a coalition). America is in serious serious trouble, given the Republican Party's subservience to Israel's right wing.
107
It would only take a few minutes of thought to realize that a confrontation with Iran will be a disaster. 1750 miles to the east, India is suffering a severe heat wave and they are running out of water. California is experiencing larger and deadlier wildfires and the midwest is under water. If Pompeo really cared about the state of the world and Bolton really cared about national security, they would be all over this climate crisis, instead of wasting time and resources drumming up a foolish war.
84
@Mark Follow the big money.
4
@Mark
I certainly hope that no one was actually naive enough to think that Pompeo ever cared about the state of the world or that Bolton cares about national security beyond which of his perceived foreign enemies he could goad the charlatan-in-chief into attacking. These men were not brought on board to keep the peace. Americans should have no illusions about that. Alas, most of us do not pay attention until it is far too late.
5
I neither trust Iran, believe me, nor will I defend it. But I also do not trust Trump, Bolton, and Pompeo and will not defend them either. This administration has caged in a mad tiger to the point that it is desperate. As Nicholas wrote, the Iran Nuclear Deal was not perfect, but it did give the global community the peace of mind knowing that this will be one less rogue nation which will have a nuclear bomb in its arsenal any time soon. To add fuel to Trump's bonfire of vanities, he not only has increased sanctions on Iran but also has threatened our allies in Europe. This behavior is beyond thuggish. It is dictatorial. And it is dangerous. Bolton and Pompeo have been planning and plotting since Trump took office to go to war with Iran. Yes, Iran is culpable on many fronts. But our warring triumvirate is employing the Bush/Cheney tactic and ruse built on deceit and deviousness. I have said this until I am blue in the face, but I will say it again. Congress, particularly Mitch McConnell and his Senate majority, needs to stop abetting its boss in the White House. It needs to grow a spine, step forward, and insist that we do not engage again in another endless Middle Eastern war.
125
@Kathy Lollock. Everyone is talking right past the most troubling fact of all here.
We're being led to a prohibitively costly and utterly needless war by a notorious hothead warmonger appointed national security advisor by a palpably ignorant narcissist of a president, goaded on by an end-times believing secretary of state, AND WE HAVE NO SECRETARY OF DEFENSE!
The seasoned retired general who had the job quit in disgust over Trump's chaos fetish. The guy who took his place for half a year as acting secretary just withdrew in disgrace upon the disclosure of a previously concealed, horrendous domestic violence situation. Oh, and his qualifications for the job were being vp in charge of aircraft development for a defense contractor whose marquee project of the last decade was a corner-cutting, penny-pinching update of a 40-year-old airframe that wouldn't fly right because the modern engines were too big to fit under its wings, requiring a poorly developed, defective control system that was sort of optional to the buyer and wasn't properly documented to the pilots, resulting in two such craft overcoming valiant crew efforts at control and flying into the ground with no survivors. Some resume, that.
The next acting secretary, appointed in haste, is yet another defense-contractor executive.
This is like deciding to devalue the currency and pull out of our global economic agreements with no on-duty, confirmed secretary of the treasury.
Incompetent chaos, a Trump brand.
Unless and until Trump and his Republican enablers are removed from power by those who truly care about the future of this nation and the future of their children, we will be on a collision course with the kind of disaster that the world has not seen since the Second World War.
14
So many Americans are woefully uninformed, like the screaming rabble in the Amway Center yesterday. I was gratified in meeting a WWII veteran at the store today, and I asked him what branch of the service he was in. He said he entered the Navy 10 days after Pearl Harbor, then said, "I'm really frightened about this Trump. He's dangerous". He agreed with me that there are too many of us older Americans backing Trump, who would love to take our Social Security away and give it to the rich and corporations.
God help us if this maniac wins 4 more years.
70
Trump saw what a success invading Iraq was for W. Everyone thought that he was a hero and he got a second term. Just need to bring Dick Cheney in as defense secretary and create a few fires in the gulf and Trump will be saying “mission accomplished” and be well on his way to 4 more years. The house of cards will collapse a few months into his second term along with the economy. Who cares? He will get to pack a couple more judges onto the Supreme Court and stay out of jail himself. The prohibitive cost of gasoline will make electric cars the norm and Trump will claim to have ended global warming as well.
13
Trump. I fear people of the future will question why we didn't throw him out of office before it was too late. Sad.
11
"The American hard-liners are quite right that the regime is unpopular because of its corruption, incompetence and repression."
I had to read this statement a second time before I realized Kristof was still talking about Tehran. I thought he meant Trump. I think the semantics still work either way.
40
Such historical perspective and reasoned conclusions are a feather in the war winds coming from the Trump White House.
I think Trump is being manipulated by Saudi Arabia, the Russians, and Israel, all of whom are persuing their own self-interests, and all of whom want to get as much as they can before a grown-up is in the White House again.
As the election nears, and the investigations progress, the pressure grows on all the players.
This does not bode well.
19
I would hate to think of Trump being commander-in-chef in a large scale war against anybody. Look what Nixon did including the secret bombing of Cambodia. Look at how Bush went from mission accomplished to a drawn out military mess. Any war against Iran would in effect be helping the Sunnis against the Shiites the opposite of our war in Iraq where we wound up on the side of the Shiites against the Sunnis and essentially the big winner was Iran. It sounds like the US has lost its way in the Middle East. What is our self interest there? There is evidence of muddled thinking with no attempt being made to figure out a clear idea of what the US should be doing.
11
@Bob Grenada went well.
"It Could Get Scarier."
Scary like how, Mr. Kristof?
Like "Trump might get Iran to the negotiating table just in time for 2020" kind of scary?
Or like "Biden might wander off to the back of the gym and find Trump there" kind of scary?
Or like "Poll numbers are showing every democrat winning against Trump by 90% AGAIN" kind of scary?
Or like ..
2
Trump and Iran are not on a collision course because Iran is not playing Trump's game. Iran does not want any conflict, especially a military one with the US. Trump is hoping that starting a war with Iran will get him re-elected. Mr. Kristof is fatally wrong when he accused Iran of bad deeds. No on in their right mind would believe that Iran attacked those two tankers. The only reckless player in this game is Donald Trump.
5
Obama's deal made "Iran less worrying for years to come." For whom? Since that deal Iran played a big role in gassing those kids in Syria, financed terrorists throughout the region with money from that deal, and amassed troops at the Israeli border. They have been a malevolent force looking for death and confrontation everywhere they went. How did any of that make them less worrying? Perhaps President Trump is rash and his plans, such as they are, are poorly thought out. But President Obama's deal emboldened Iran and financed their mischief. It didn't make them 'less worrying.' Just ask those Syrian kids.
1
@Jack19 Iran's government controls less than 2/3 of the public expenditures of the country. The JCPOA was negotiated with the government. The rest of the national budget is controlled by the IRGC, that was opposed to the JCPOA.
Sanctions relief started in January 2016 - not much from that pot for support in Syria. Iranian supported fighters in Iran fought ISIS and other Sunni Jihadists along with the U.S. and the anti-ISIS coalition that it supported. There were no Iranian troops on the border of Israel. A Sunni extremist controlled Syria would have represented an existential threat to Iran
Trump actions embolden and strengthen hardliners in Iran opposed to JCPOA. If the hardliners remove the moderates in the government the possibility of negotiations with Iran will cease to exist.
3
It's easy to blame Pompeo and especially Bolton for this escalation, but Trump hired both of them, and Trump is the one with his fingers on his Twitter account. As Thomas Friedman has recently noted, he has no plan or overriding philosophy when it comes to foreign policy. He or one of his top cabinet members may make what appears to be a clear statement of policy one day, and the next day Trump or a top officer will say just the opposite. Trump may think this unpredictability makes him a better negotiator; but the fact is, it only makes us an unreliable player on the world stage.
What troubles me is the number of Americans who are cheering him on. Aside from the fact that Iran, like Iraq, has millions of innocent citizens who will end up homeless, maimed or dead as the result of another unnecessary war, there is also the fact that Iran, like Iraq, hasn't attacked the US.
The world already saw the US as a bully, and then we elected Trump, who compliments dictators and offends our allies. Just as when Bush invaded Iraq, Trump will have a very difficult time finding allies in an attack on Iran. And in spite of the US spending more than the next 7 countries on our military, we are not invincible.
28
@Fourteen14 A consistent thread in Trump's actions is the desire for security - build the Wall to keep out the hordes of migrants, send troops to the border, increase military spending, pal with Russia (it has military capacity), push on NATO to spend more (particularly if that means buy American) combine that with intimidation tactics that worked fine in NYC real estate. Bearing this in mind Trump is no more unpredictable than was Obama or Bush. Scott Adams (Dilbert) has pointed out how this works. Is that a strategy? Where does Trump want the U.S. to be as a result of his "strategic" actions? Where he is secure and is respected.
Trump has weakened institutions that could provide follow through. He would like to clear out the Obama/Clinton loyalists, but fortunately civil service laws and regulations have kept much of the government unscathed. if Trump were to win a 2nd term, then professional government work would likely suffer marked by significant erosion of the U.S. transparency/corruption index. In Trump's first two years the U.S. dropped six places.
2
@TL Mischler
Not to mention there will probably be retaliatory attacks inside the US by "terrorists".
Drumps latest comment about the tanker bombings being only small and not significant is not an indication of backing away from conflict but rather a ploy to encourage Iran to take bolder aggressive action that can be captured in drone video footage. This will then be used to justify the launch of American offensive strikes against Iran naval vessels and perhaps other targets. Drump is itching for a confrontation with Iran and Iran may just provide him with enough clear evidence to commence such a conflict. Of course drump and his friends may just concoct something from nothing and use that as war justification also. Seems inevitable that there will be American military action against Iran.
3
"But America has suffered huge self-inflicted wounds because of its invasion of Iraq 16 years ago."
What an interesting way of framing it, from an Iraqi perspective.
13
@Eric - You are right. I'd hate to be growing up in Iraq with a leg or arm missing because of some shrapnel from American bomb which took my limb off. And maybe said bomb killed my parents and / or siblings.
1
The fact that wars increase a President's approval ratings significantly can't be lost on Trump.
10
@Mark Jackson Not if this war makes Trump a loser. Iran will not go down without an all out fight. They have already nuclear capability which Iraq did not have. Remember the WMD fiasco perpetuated by Bush and Cheney?
1
@Mark Jackson Only if you win.
1
It would be a shame if the United States has a nuclear war with either Iran or North Korea. Trump apparently wants to wipe Iran off the face of the earth and Pompeo has a twelve-point plan for it. Trump also seems to have a good friend in the dictator of North Korea. I guess Trump must know what he's doing. After all, Americans elected him. And elections do have consequences.
We might consider thinking hard about that for next year, assuming we survive the rest of this year.
20
“Second, Iran was probably behind attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman. It’s not impossible that Iran is being framed, but even knowledgeable Democrats believe the Trump administration is correct about Iran’s responsibility.”
Where is the proof that Iran did it? All we have is blurry video( crew being saved?) and sketchy photos ( maybe even deep-faked). Why is there no evidence provided on the mines being attached to the boat, surely we have video. The ships owner said that a projectile caused the damage, not mines. The US had ships and reaper drones capable of shooting weapons in the area of the ship before the explosion. Also Iran was hosting the PM of Japan a big event last PM visited 40 years ago , so why would they attack Japanese owned ship during this time.
The US has placed sanctions on Iran an act of war in itself, and has cranked up our military next to Iran hoping for a response. It appears that Israel and the Saudis are afraid Trump may not get re-elected so this is their last chance. Remember it is the Saudis who are the largest financiers of Al Qaeda and ISIS in the world and that 15 of 19 hijackers on 9/11 were Saudi (NONE Iranian). The Iranians are the mortal enemies of Sunni terrorists such as ISIS and Al Qaeda.
65
@steve -- He doesn't say there's proof, he says "probably." He's connecting dots as he sees them. We all do that and we're entitled to draw whatever conclusions we like. Columns like this are opinions, not reporting, so he's welcome to analyse a situation as he sees it.
"and try multilateral diplomacy."
Good suggestion. That seems to be the best option in the Middle East, has a great track record. Look at its success in Syria.
And this would leave the proxies able and willing to continue to do Iran's dirty work without ever being called to order (Hizbollah held accountable anywhere? Not the last time I looked. etc. etc.).
It is easy to point out the problems.
It is much more difficult to suggest viable solutions.
Multilateral diplomacy is a band-aid in place of surgery.
5
@Joshua Schwartz People rarely die of band-aids, though. Surgery, done by the clumsy hand of an inexperienced or unlicensed doctor who has looked at three pages of illustrations about it on the internet, is quite dangerous, no?
32
@Joshua Schwartz You call the total destruction and displacement of millions of people in Syria a success? This may just be Trump's Vietnam--this may be the final straw to break the bases back? One could only wish. Wake up people--stop allowing Israel to dictate our foreign policy. They need to fight their own battles.
6
@Gnirol Actually people die from band-aids all the time, especially when they need surgery or serious treatment and receive a band-aid.
2
War with Iran would please John Bolton. But we would be alone. Trump triggered this by pulling out of the treaty when Iran was in compliance. And he's alienated all of our allies.
93
There's a simple solution. Iran will not negotiate, unless we reinstate the Nuclear Deal. Trump should agree , with the caveat that he adds 5 years to the alleged break-out date and call it the Trump Treaty, with bold brand headline.
Maybe send Ivanka over to steal a few designs off Persian rugs.
33
This is a brilliant idea!
1
@Norma Lee
That is Not good enough for the Israel Lobby and as it controls the USA`s Mid East policies nothing but a repeat of the trashing of Iraq will suffice. eg As Mearsheimer & Walt point out in their acclaimed book the Israel Lobby , the Iraq War was accomplished by and for AIPAC. Eg. It was Wolfowitz who set up the Office Of Special Plans in the Pentagon & staffed it with Feith , Perle, Edelman , Wurmser , Maloof & 17 other AIPACers who generated the lies used to rev-up US public support to pre-emptively invade Iraq. (In previous gov`t security jobs both Feith & Perle were charged with passing US secrets to Israel.) Wolfowitz testified before Congress that the war would cost the US 1-2 $billion.
In 2003, NYT`s journalist Thomas Friedman counted 25 members of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations saying, “if you had exiled them to a desert island a year and half ago, the Iraq war would not have happened”.
Only Israel has benefited from the Iraq invasion. Ie It ended Iraq`s support for some measure of justice for the indigenous people of Palestine. Now these same people are pushing the US to do the same to Iran.
It is time to change the US election campaign funding laws so that a lobby can no longer game the system & thereby control Congress against the interests of the nation
1
I can only hope NONE of our allies support the Trump administration's propensity for war on Iran. No intelligence sharing, no troops or air cover, no money. Nothing.
I have three family members in the military and fear for them. Hopefully we see a huge decrease in the number of young men and women who desire to join the military. I don't believe we'll see anti war protests because there is no draft.
36
@JMWB, I agree with your hopes and fears, but I disagree with your belief that we won't see anti-war protests if Trump attempts to attack Iran. Much as I hate demonstrations, I would be in the streets protesting, and I believe many others would be too. One can only hope that our protests will be more effective than those against the Iraq war.
18
It pretty clear that:
1) the Saudis know they are no match for a fight with Iran,
2) SA knows 45 is easily duped into a fight v Iran (on behalf of SA),
3) SA has been buying and stockpiling billions of dollars of US military equipment,
4) that equipment will be used by US military personnel in a fight with Iran, on the basis of truly false premises.
24
The current talk of "war" is of air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and navy. This magical thinking imagines a few bombs over a few days will eliminate the problems and change everything.
Actually, Iran is on a long term path that could lead to a bomb. It isn't the risk of something tomorrow, it is the risk of something for which they will have the knowledge and infrastructure to do in a few years time.
Bombs can't blow up knowledge. Bombs can't blow up the basic infrastructure. They can kill a few individuals, and can wreck a few things built, but they can't stop the long term program.
So go back and just keep bombing? Over time, they won't be able to get all the caves. They'll just ensure the program does exactly what they don't want.
So occupy Iran? We can't. It is 1/3 the US population in a huge mountainous territory. We can't even occupy Afghanistan (which is next door).
The "military option" isn't surgical strikes, it is suicide for us.
307
@Mark Thomason
Actually Iran had been using nuclear technology for breakthrough medical research., with success. Before the sanctions, and Trump .their economy was expanding. With all the surveillance, they are well aware, any malign nuclear activity would be detected, before the lady with her finger on any "button, "would be disseminated before she pulled up her jeans . Iran is just too smart to commit suicide.
11
@Mark Thomason so your solution is that Iran will inevitably get a nuclear weapon and have a nuclear umbrella to further embolden its proxies Hizbolla, Hamas, and Syria. That's not a solution that is a guarantee for a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. No thank you!
2
@Mark Thomason - Is it possible that an attack by the US would rally all Islam to Iran's defense? I know that there is a schism in Islam, but an attack by the US might just erase that schism. Especially if it looks like the US was encouraged, prompted, goaded on by Israel and Saudi Royal Family along with the millionaires Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner.
11
I believe that Trump welcomes war because it will take the heat of
the investigations and it will be hard to impeach him.
Remember that it is all about him, that is all he cares about.
I believe that Trump hired Bolton for that reason and all the trips that Jared took to MBS and Netanyahu are suspicious.
I also believe that the Iranians were framed because Iran has nothing to gain by provoking a war with the US.
152
"Negotiations are frustrating, imperfect and uncertain, and they may seem less satisfying than dropping bombs. But America has suffered huge self-inflicted wounds because of its invasion of Iraq 16 years ago.
"Haven’t we learned lessons? "
It's hard to be sanguine about either the capacity of the deliberately aggressive Trump administration to suddenly start behaving rationally or of Congress to force Trump to back down from his inexorable march toward military conflict. The original sane players within the administration itself have either been purged or resigned out of despair. The foreign policy shop is now being run by Bolton, a super-hawk, and an apocalyptic minded Pompeo. A last voice of moderation is theoretically Dan Coats, but he now appears to be out of the decision-making loop.
As for Congress, a few meek Republican voices may be raised in opposition to attacking Iran and most Democrats will oppose going to war. But the military escalation will likely take place incrementally by executive mandate, with Congressional approval avoided. This could lead to some grumbling, but probably little more.
The ultimate question thus will be whether the American public is willing to passively watch as Trump drags us into yet another unnecessary and disastrous Middle Eastern war. It has been quite awhile since we have seen a sustained anti-war protest movement. Those who marched in the Viet Nam era have now grown old. I wonder how many of us still remember how to do it.
137
@woofer
It should be possible to have a antiwar movement as long as people are aware of the danger that a war with Iran poses and how easily it might occur even if it is not intended (in other words 'by mistake').
But alas the majority today does not view events happening outside the country as of the same importance as domestic issues.
5
@woofer Like you, I'm of that generation. Happily, we don't have to rely on Flower Children to lead this protest. There are plenty of Americans with the know-how and the incentives. Those without experience can get it rather quickly.
Leadership of the anti-war protest isn't the real problem. Or even the principal problem. What will be the reaction of a weak, unbalanced President? How sharply will the country divide? Will Republican Senators finally grow spines? As bad as the outcomes were in our last two Middle East wars, at least we had some allies with us. What will our allies do?
I'm frankly terrified of the depth and number of fractures in our social fabric, in the post-war international order, and in our fragile system of checks and balances that this war will trigger, all of which can and will be manipulated for the benefit of Trump Inc.
8
@woofer
But who listens to the American public? There were millions in the streets protesting before the Iraq war--and the Bush administration paid no attention.
3
War - what is it good for? Profits - for our defense contractors (who I imagine are already salivating at the prospects of war) and for the likes of Eric Prince, plus oil profits for Trump's good friends - MBS, MBZ, Putin, etc. What about human casualties, buildings, cities and nations destroyed? Oh, that's just collateral damage.
395
@Zara1234
And don't forget the Trump syndicate itself, which is sure to get plenty of kickbacks from their foreign benefactors for following through and offering up the lives of our soldiers and sailors. I wish there was some way to compel Don Jr, Eric and Ivanka to join the military and put them on the front lines. Toss in any progeny of Pompeo and Bolton as well, and then let's see how quick they want to rush to line their pockets with the Saudi's dirty money. Sadly, however, as I think about that prospect, I actually see it doing little to alter their calculus. They are soulless to the core and likely place money and power over even their own families.
10
@Zara1234
And don't forget the Trump syndicate itself, which is sure to get plenty of kickbacks from their foreign benefactors for following through and offering up the lives of our soldiers and sailors. I wish there was some way to compel Don Jr, Eric and Ivanka to join the military and put them on the front lines. Toss in any progeny of Pompeo and Bolton as well, and then let's see how quick they want to rush to line their pockets with the Saudi's dirty money. Sadly, however, as I think about that prospect, I actually see it doing little to alter their calculus. They are soulless to the core and likely place money and power over even their own families.
@Zara1234 Trump has no real concept of other people's existence as living, breathing, thinking entities.
6
Trump and his administration caused this conflict by pulling out of an (admittedly imperfect) agreement when Iran was meeting the terms of the agreement. Considering Trump has said he wants to get and keep the US out of foreign wars he is close to getting us into one through his own actions.
42
@jeffk
"Considering Trump has said..."
First rule of the Reality TV Presidency, never believe a word the Charlatan-in-Chief says.
That is also the second rule, a la "Fight Club."
If his advisers suggest that a foreign military conflict will improve his chances for re-election, rest assured Trump's words on this matter will ring just as hollow as basically anything else he has "promised."
I fear that war with Iran was rendered unavoidable as soon as the likes of Pompeo and Bolton were thrust into their national security roles. You don't hire two of the most ardent hawks on Iran if you have any intention of keeping the peace. The writing was on the wall 15 months ago. Now they are simply executing the script to make the "case" for war.
5
Is the White House trying to encourage China to put some distance between Iran and itself? China, I read, is the main buyer of oil from Iran, and India cannot be too far behind. But I read in the NYT a few days ago that Exxon and Petrochina were getting a thirty-year exploration deal in southern Iraq. Is that true? This would be another way to tighten the noose around Iran's lifeline. Not that China has to follow the US in its undeclared war on Iran, far from it. Perhaps the events are going to encourage attempts to write oil contracts in a basket of currencies rather than dollars. Our gloriously expensive military machinery will be powerless to shore up the dollar and the destroyed trust between nations.
7
@gweltaz
The Trump administration seems to underestimate and misapprehend the hazards inherent in war with Iran. Based on the current parameters, a war between the United States and Iran-China-Russia is possible and likely - after which humans will probably fight with rocks and sticks again. The Thucydides’s Trap might still avoidable if the US is beware of “entangling alliances” and both leaders and public change their attitude to Mutual Understanding now.
1
@gweltaz Putin is an ally of Iran. Putin is an ally of China. There will be no noose tightening here. Believe me.
1
Again, I think that very many of us need to keep in mind that Pompeo wants to bring on the rapture and Bolton doesn't care if more kids die in yet another war. Trump is besieged by reality (remember that) and could very much use a distraction, not to mention that the Saudis continue to pump funds into his real estate and the UAE has a certain golf course. But rising oil prices would benefit both Saudi Arabia and that ex-KGB guy, you know, the one who maintains oligarchic control over a different petrostate, the one that tampered in our election to denigrate Hillary and promote ol' Don...
566
@TreyP
You left out the 2020 vote incentive. Landslide. Make Trump Great Again. The war president. Greater than Lincoln. All Hail The Donald. RE==>ELECTION. It worked in 2004.
15
@TreyP - A drone is shot down and the US will not say specifically where (for that matter, different governments have different definitions as to air space).
Makes me wonder when Trump is going to claim our drone was manned, someone bailed out, and observers saw Francis Gary Powers.
8
@TreyP
I addition how do we know trump is not lying about the whole incident.
5
We might have felt ok about the current state of affairs, if we had a credible intelligence community, or allies who had our back. Regrettably, Wreck-it-Donnie has destroyed these reliable assets.
If you intentionally set out to ruin our ability to deal successfully in international affairs, you wouldn’t be able to do what the MAGA-man has done.
81
Unilateralism does not work internationally, but also does not work nationally. Obama ruled in a unilateral manner and invited the undoing of most of his accomplishments.
3
@Beetle
U. S. Presidents don't rule, neither Obama nor Trump. They lead one branch of the government. If they want to change the law, they need Congress to pass a bill. Not so easy.
17
@Jonathan Katz
Trump's secret weapon is Mitch McConnell. If Mitch doesn't like a bill, it won't get a vote, even if it has enough votes to pass.
10
@Beetle Obama had a decent agreement in place and Trump unilaterally axed it. How is that due to Obama's approach?
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"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Well, perhaps it was Santayana who wrote that but it seems that our foreign policy for a long time now is decided by people who may have read history but never studied it or never learned from it. War should always be a last resort but that lesson seems never to penetrate the brains of the pompous and esp. the brain of this bone spur president. We have sovereignty and other countries have sovereignty and they believe in that sovereignty just as strongly as we do in ours. We've made many mistakes with Iran including backing the shah as part of our cold war shield and failing to see how the revolution would play out in 1979. I really think that people don't back an ideology they just push for something that they think might make their lives better; unfortunately populists and mullahs and trumps and other assorted ilk step into that gap and just end up making things worse for everyone.
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