The Car Industry Is Under Siege

The biggest threat to the big auto companies has been and always will be the UAW. The wages the UAW demands are noncompetitive. Don't believe me? Just look at all the non-UAW car manufacturing plants that have been popping up in the south.

Wait a second. Are you implying that designing our modern cities around cars might have been a bad idea?

Head down to Las Vegas from Salt Lake - good luck with your Tesla.

I very much like the idea of an electric car and it looks like they have advanced to the point where, when it comes time to replace my present benzine burner, I might just buy one. The range is there, and the recharge time is there, the only real question I have concerns battery life and replacement cost. But then I tend to maintain my vehicles per the recommended maintenance schedule and also keep them until the wheels fall off. (case in point, I have a 30 year old Volvo, it still runs and drives just fine.). One problem with going electric en masse however. The internal combustion engine is a prime mover in its own right. It burns gasoline, the shaft turns, and you go down the road. With a battery what you have is an energy storage device, not the prime mover, which is elsewhere. It is true that large generating stations have a higher thermal efficiency than the internal combustion engine, but they have to be sized to support the load - and currently they are not sized to support a completely electric fleet. There is also the transmission system which is already groaning under the present load, and will have to be upgraded. I don't like chemical engines - they are expensive to run and dirty. Electric vehicles are cheaper to run and cleaner. But there are all these infrastructure costs required to support them. And someone has to pay for all this. It isn't free.

Use to think that Tesla was the future. Now it is clear that Tesla is the present. And all gas cars on the road are the past, still driving around like ghosts, not knowing they are dead. I see dead cars.

I understand the economics and environmental rush to conversion of electric vehicles. No problem. The problem is we are rushing helter-skelter to the conversion to electric vehicles hoping that in the next 10 years, when potentially millions of spent lithium ion batteries will begin piling up in recycling centers, that recycling technology will not be there and we will not have exchanged one environmental disaster for another. Governments and auto makers are literally betting they will be able to design and prove in an acceptable disposal system before these batteries arrive at collection centers. Recommend reading Linda Gaine's article, "The future of automotive lithium-ion battery recycling: Charting a sustainable course." A second issue is how the owner of a five year old electric or hybrid car trade for a new one? Who will buy an electric or hybrid knowing that in three years they will have to fork over $4,000 to replace a battery that will outlast the car's mechanicals and sheet metal?

Really..underseige. Come on Man! Who are you kidding. But honestly..they have brought it upon themselves. 1. The increase in car prices has has far outpaced the inflation rate for decades. 2. More importanly..have you ever worked on a new car recently. The automotive industry has gone way out of its way to make care repairs expensive and painful for the consumer. Case in point..2004 nissan exterra..6 cylinder, 2 wheel drive, 5 speed. 3 years ago..the catalytic converters failed.. The were relatively cheap..but they were also 1 piece assembly w/ the exhaust manifolds..so.instead of a 1 hours repair job.it was 8 hours per cylinder because the heads had to be removed after removing the front fenders. Oh head..to add insult to injury...the studs holding the heads on were poor quality metal..so one had too be extra careful to not break the studs..or it became even more costly. There is NO reason those converters had to be 1 piece. Maybe automobile makers should go back basics..and make affordable transportation..and not mini resorts on wheels.

Now Republicans can point to what real Socialism is and what it does. Our US socialists are only talking about government paid education and healthcare. In the case of Renault we are talking about government ownership of the means of production, the textbook definition of Socialism. And the aims of government ownership are different than private ownership, keeping jobs and factories vice staying in business. If free education is Socialism then we have had it since 1787 when the Northwest Ordinance provided for free education in the western lands. It also took away property rights by banning slavery.

wonderful! the need to pay hundreds in billions in costs to convert to electric means jobs jobs jobs! when auto CEOs complain about high costs, they aren't talking about the high costs of much higher profit margins, but instead the high costs of paying workers, and almost always paying the higher skilled workers who design robotic systems for new assembly lines and get them running well producing high quality components. economists have switched values since Reagan and convince so many people that paying workers cost too much, and high costs kill jobs. to most economists today, the way to create jobs is to fire workers or cut their pay.

EV's are still not ready for prime time. They work well for short haul and urban driving where charging stations can be utilized while the driver is otherwise occupied at work or play. But it is precisely here that drivers are choosing other alternatives to car ownership. They are still not feasible for longer trips where recharging stops are an enforced part of the trip and infrastructure is scarce. Until recharge time is on the order of a tank fill up or something like Toyota's fuel cell technology becomes ubiquitous, ICE driven cars will hold a significant share of the market.

I have zero sympathy for the car companies - they have brought this on themselves. I bought a Hyundai Ioniq which gets 50-something miles per gallon (less on short trips, sometimes into the 60s) and is overall the best car I have ever owned. But even on Hyundai ads that show their "full lineup of cars", they don't show the Ioniq! People buy big cars in part because that's what the auto companies advertise. Then the companies whine that consumers only want SUVs.

As electric cars kick in, gas prices will temporarily soften, maybe for a few years, even. But there will not be new refineries built to process gasoline. Old refineries will only be modified for other chemicals and jet fuel. This price softening (which buffers against electric car sales) will be followed by much higher gas prices as new refineries are delayed by the inevitable decline in gas use and refinery improvements decrease. Once the price starts increasing there will be a radical shift to adopting electric cars as consumers fight for the last drop of petrol. Against this entire backdrop batteries are improving in charge density, charge rate and cost. Interesting!

I’d like to see some competitive pressure turning cars back into cars instead of personal surveillance machines.

Such doom at gloom. Who are you Jack ? What credentials do you have to comment on this progression of technology and manufacturing? You sound like some Paulina who knows little about innovation. Jobs will be impacted, but by whom will all this progress be developed and carried out? Ah, alas the robot will replace man. The auto industry, especially the North American, was a dinosaur until forced to change under Obama. The efficiency demands under Obama were supposed to kill the auto industry in your circle when in fact they probably saved them. Have some faith in our engineers. Maybe focus on compensating our technologist as opposed to just the nay saying MBAs that just want profits for their personal gain.

"The internal combustion engine is under attack from electric challengers." This does not have to be a problem for car-makers. Every since the EV1, they have chosen to make it a problem. As a Chevy Bolt owner, I can attest they can make good quality EVs. (GM also made the EV1). If they would stop doing so at gunpoint and just move forward, it'd be a win-win for everybody.

Figure out how to make a unibody frame out of CFRP/CF, quickly (eg measured in 10s of minutes not 10s of hours), without an autoclave. No one can do this. Lamborghini in a few other companies have figured out how to, in essence, injection mold suspension components and other Parts with complex geometry using carbon fiber reinforced polymers If you can scale that technology on steroids to injection mold the entire chassis, that would change the entire Auto industry That is game changing technology. More game-changing then Cobalt free batteries or supercapacitors or camless engines or any other Cutting Edge vehicle technology If every vehicle including cheap vehicles could have a 400 lb super strong super safe chassis, it would completely revolutionize the entire Auto industry overnight. It would even save all those jobs because it would mean that we could put tiny little super efficient gasoline engines inside the cars and extend the lifespan of the internal combustion engine another 20 years maintaining all that gas mileage in lowering emissions considerably because you cut the weight of the vehicle by 1/3 or more It would also lower the cost and environmental impact of manufacturing new battery powered cars as it would decrease the amount of batteries required to deliver the same performance, or vastly extend the range at the same price

Ford are retrenching from the UK after announcing the closure of its Engine Plant in Bridgend, South Wales (opened in 1980). https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/06/body-blow-for-area-bridgend-devastated-by-ford-factory-closure

With the vast majority of Fiat Chrysler's profits coming from Detroit it's too bad Jeep, Chrysler, Dodge and Ram can't be spun off from the declining Fiat. The aborted merger with Renault was a lucky near miss!

With sixty-three percent of US electricity coming from fossil fuels, electric cars are not the panacea to the pollution problem they seem. If everyone were to go for electric vehicles electricity production would have to rise, and that would mean burning more fossil fuels, especially shale gas. A better way might be to convert the shale gas into alcoholic motor spirit, and run the cars on that. This would sidestep international competition in the electric car market to the benefit of US industry.

Our survivors will one day look back upon the Age of the Automobile (1908 - 2025) as a great, historical error; the same as slavery, nuclear weapons and/or single-party totalitarianism. Comes now the lament for what is certain to be lost: mechanized convenience, status and entertainment. The industry is falling on its own internal contradictions. Its products offer almost nothing of value or any positive returns to the end-users, only a bizarre kind of diversion. Driving makes the driver poorer, that and fat, angry and dumber. Driving is a lethal diversion: failure of the operator to pay attention for as little as two seconds means a gruesome, death = 1.2 million per year world wide according to the World Health Organization. Add deaths by pollution, by accidents in related industries and the millions done in by oil wars. As for jobs, pity those lost in the steam locomotive industry, the clipper ship industry; by sail makers and the '49er gold panners out of San Francisco. There are no more whalers or mule skinners, telegraph operators or milkmen. Millions of agriculture jobs have been lost in the past 100 years. Times change, jobs end but work never does, there are million things to do besides assembly in auto factories and sales on TV. It's time to move on, to get rid of the cars altogether and try to save ourselves while we still can. It's cars vs us. Right now it doesn't look too good for our side.

Since purchasing my model 3 exactly one month ago, I'm now certain it is the best single item I've ever spent my hard earned money on. The driving experience, quality and 'fun' factor are unequaled and years ahead of the competition. You simply can't compare a Nissan Leaf to a Tesla, with its range, performance and supercharger network. I keep hearing about how the competition is coming for Tesla. Maybe. But the operative work here is 'coming'. It's not here yet. Meanwhile Tesla's manufacturing and portfolio of automobile options just keeps growing and evolving. Unless there is overt government shenanigans by the US and/or China set forth to undermine them, they will be a massive winner in the race to the future of clean sustainable transit. Oh and contrary to the few negative instances in the media, autopilot with 'Full Self Driving' is incredible. I use it every day to drive me to work! It keeps getting smarter and I feel safer when it drives, than when I drive! :)

Hybrid turbodiesels and an array of other technologies are hitting the road in Europe every day that offer far better fuel economy than US cars. Allow European spec cars and engines into the US and the auto industry will thrive, consumers will save a bundle and the only loser will be the oil companies. Wonder why trump is trashing fuel economy standards?

Why do these articles often read as doom and gloom as if something needs to be done to avert a terrible ending? If we embrace capitalism as a society, we accept all it brings. Companies live or die based on adaptation, not a single successful product. Apple used to sell computers, now it’s a phone and app emporium, Amazon sold books and now sells everything at a loss and profits from storage services, Marriott is a management company, not a hotel chain, oh and Trump is a royalty brand, not a real estate company. Evolution is to biology as innovation is to business.

There seems a hint of "chicken little" in this story. 17 million annual sales in the US, a record level, is an indication that the industry is falling apart? Uber and Dyson have an advantage over Ford and VW because...why? Because they make no cars of any type? Yes, the car industry is under stress and I will continue to change in response, as it has for 100 years.

I purchased used 2015 used Nissan Leaf last year and was amazed at how much fun it is to drive. The most difficult transition is to become aware of the distance limitation (80 miles per charge) and to plan accordingly. I have a fast (level 2) charger in the garage which refills the battery in under 3 hours. Once I realized its a new way to drive, and let go of the expectations of my gas engine truck, I've adapted quite easily and am saving more than $150 per month in fuel even after factoring the cost to charge the car each night. If any of you are sitting on the fence, take the plunge, its really worth it.

This statement is not entirely correct in regard to changes needed by car companies: "They must retool factories, retrain workers, reorganize their supplier networks and rethink the whole idea of car ownership." This would apply much more if the subject were electric cars rather than partial automation of driving. The cars we use right now, save for the engine itself, rolling computers. The car companies have been placing more and more microchips and computerization in vehicles for at least two decades, if not longer. The coming changes represent an increase rather than breaking entirely new ground. Additionally, driverless cars, many are coming to realize, are a chimera. Assisted driving is not. It is real and available on production vehicles right now. Volvo has announced that it will stop making internal combustion powered cars entire and another auto maker followed suit. The future is electric and when it is paired with renewable energy generated by sun, wind or water, and with electricity stored by new, advanced means, there will be no stopping it. I watched a video with two men whose jobs involve taking apart new cars and analyzing them. One of these mechanics said the Tesla, had it been designed to be manufactured as a first order of business, would have swept the world. In other words, cars that are more carefully designed for the manufacturing process will take over the world.

The internal combustion engine has made a lot of progress in the last decades, including hybrid systems. That includes efficiency (mostly from electronic injection), but also reliability. The problem is that most of these gains have been used to drive larger cars (and trucks) that feel like small cars in terms of agility. Large cars used to be minivans driven by families who didn’t care about a sluggish vehicle. Now you see plenty of commuters in SUVs the size of minivans with massive engines. Efficiencies have also been lost in making vehicles ever-more safer, at the cost of increased weight: not only people want bigger cars now (never mind that it doesn’t help if the person hitting you is also now driving a bigger car), but there is a lot more metal in a modern car’s frame just so they crunch exactly where they should. Not sure it is really worth it if the feeling of safety means people drive more carelessly. Whether you care about the environment or about your children and grandchildren still being able to drive cars (which is pretty important), this car landscape is obsolete. Yet electric cars are not ready, and they might never will if we don’t solve the issue of cost and capacity of batteries. Maybe the solution until then is small cars with small hybrid engines, of which the main safety feature is a driver who knows they will never win in a collision. That would fit most people’s needs anyway, and would most likely be the model self-driving car.

Buy a Model 3 or any other Tesla. Then you'll understand why it's time for the old manufactureres to get their pistons in gear. Even for a guy like me who's currently rebuilding an old car, nothing beats the overall practicality and performance of a Tesla. The tech is far more advanced than people realize and the car performs better and has more options today than when I bought it due to software updates being constantly pushed out to the car. We eventually let go of the horse and buggy as the main form of transport. Time to evolve, people.

I hope Elon reads this article. He has a tough road ahead. His Tesla is going to be just one of many "metoo Teslas'." As many other industries have found out - size still counts despite many disruptions.

The car industry under siege and in survival mode is a good thing. The amount of resources we as a country put into moving people around in 2-ton rolling living rooms is, frankly, absurd.

Break up the big car companies; why wait for them to fail while they continue to pollute our future? Get rid of them. You don't need scale for electric cars - you need innovation. Innovate first and add modular scale as the market demands. Be like Tesla and think different. Put pedal to the metal for a diversified, decentralized, and sustainable future by combining lean production with battery tech, energy storage, photovoltaics on every house, and electric cars. Hundreds of millions of good jobs just waiting for the taking. The valuations of car companies will decline to zero until they stop thinking of themselves as car companies. As for Tesla, they've shown the way. Now they need to monetize by replacing Musk with a lean manufacturing manager and redesigning their frame (held together with chewing gum and baling wire) for production speed and quality. They'd be worth their valuation if they gave 20% of the company to Toyota in return for a few smart engineers.

I still drive a 1996 Toyota Tercel that has gone 250,00 miles. I fear the day when it dies because I cannot afford any of the vehicles that are on the market today. I believe that modest vehicles with the newest technologies do not have to be rolling living rooms. Please make a bare bones vehicle that is low cost. I was given a Toyota Prius to drive when my car was in the shop. The Coney Island dash made me dizzy. The high tech seat was terribly uncomfortable. The car is too large for what it does and the visibility was really bad. The more they tart up cars, the worse they get and adds thousands of dollars to the price.

With the failure of combustion engine cars (and their expensive and constant repairs), we will also see a drastic reduction in gas stations and car repair shops.

"Electric cars have far fewer parts than gas powered cars." So electrics will have less pollution, be easier to build and maintain, have fewer parts to break, and will ultimately replace the 130-years-old combustion technology. But the economy is always changing, and we are never doomed. Efficiency, durability, and simplicity always have an edge over massive complexity. I'm a 70 year-old gear head, and I'm not afraid of the changes. Covered wagons, buggy whips, steam train engines, side-wheel paddle boats all had their heyday. So did my VW van, MG Midget, Corvair, Thunderbird, and maybe even my 1996 911. So let's get on with it: I'd like an all-electric 911 before I expire.

If all that is said in this text comes to pass, then the economy as we know it is doomed. There is no sound economy today without cars and oil. Perhaps one day there will be, in the age of the dominance of the machines and robots, but until they start ruling we will have some really rough time. And what the heck is this "carmakers must achieve average fuel economy equivalent to about 57 miles per gallon by 2021 " ? An attempt to destroy the car industry, by the lawmakers? I know, they are saving our planet ...