That headline, I thought, must be sarcasm. After all, the weekend retreat meeting of Ehud Barak and Yasser Arafat worked out so well.
I dislike (substitute a stronger word) Trump as much as any other NYTimes reader. But China has been ripping off our technology, undercutting our domestic manufacturers by using its citizens as de facto slave laborers, for decades.
Other presidents have ignored the issue, possibly frightened by China's growing economic power. Trump's actions may be a day late, but it's better to fail trying than just continuing the policy of surrender and pray.
7
@Austin Liberal
Other presidents did not ignore the issue. The TPP agreement was designed to counter Chinese economic abuses. Trump tore that agreement up because, 1) he didn't understand it, and 2) it was associated with Pres. Obama.
Trump counts on us having very short memories.
6
It is very unfortunate that we have two crazy guys at the present time as our leaders. There is some hope for American people that Trump will not be around after 2024. For Chinese people whether they like it or not Xi Jinping will be around until Chinese Buddha takes away for good. Xi has no term limits. First time in Communist China. What happened to Chinese people? China needs another Tiananmen demonstration by Chinese young and old, women and men. One retreat is not going to change anything. Mao Zedong was a much better dictator and ruler.
1
Really Tom? Singapore; Lee Hsien Loong -- these are key elements of your hypothetical "one wish"? Surely you could have worked in world peace, a few supermodels, and some massage oil...
The Chinese would have Trump for lunch. How can we entrust an ignorant bully who fails to prepare adequately for anything to successfully negotiate with the Chinese. Let’s temporarily minimize the damage and wait until January 2021.
Economic nationalism 101
One part pie in the sky socialist (Bernie)
One part populist president ( chronic bankrupt)
Stir the bases
Serve to the masses
A toxic brew
Allows irrational economic policies
That leads to fascist economies
Locking Trump up with the Chinese President would be tantamount to Torture. He would probably drop off with a whimpering squeak.
The reader comments are generally overestimating China and underestimating the US. China's finances are poor, demographics are trending the wrong way, corruption and IP theft are rampant. It's a dictatorship with central state control. The US economy is still $7 trillion larger than China. The US holds the world's reserve currency, and our debt is the gold standard. You can invest in our markets. You cannot invest in China, because at least half the companies there cook their books. You can speak freely in the US. China still denies Tiananmen Square ever happened. Religious freedom and free speech are under pressure, and the country leads the world in executions. What bright young person would choose to move there? They're trying to quickly become the world's dominant power and retain their dictatorial ways. It won't work, and the US and other democracies are right to resist it.
2
Mr. Friedman, not unlike Mr. Trump, lives in a world of his own. In that world, Mr. Trump has a deep understanding of history, geopolitics, and principles governing the world trade that would allow him go head-to-head with Xi Jinping and "work out" the issues that have bewildered negotiators of the two countries for two years now.
Mr. Friedman, to write anything about China and Chinese you first need to understand the history of China; not as a Westerner but as a Chinese. China is an ancient land governed by ancient cultures and philosophies. Unlike Helenic, Roman, Egyptian and Persian empires China was not invaded by outsiders until recently (Mongols are not entirely "outsiders" and Portuguese taking over Macau did not impact the Mainland).
That is why the defeat of China in the first and second Opium Wars (1842 and 1856) by British and French and then the Japanese invasion in 1894 were profoundly humiliating to the Chinese. These demeaning defeats have created such deep wounds in the psyche of Chinese that today no Chinese leader can politically survive if he/she does not stand up to any Western threat of force or bullying.
In dealing with the US, Chinese leaders have been risking much by being patient and trying to be accommodating. Time and time they have been reminding their countrymen that: "It is easy to hate and difficult to love. This is how the whole scheme of things works. All good things are difficult to achieve, and bad things are very easy to get."
2
Right, Tom, Trump hosts Xi at Camp David during which he reveals to Xi that he's as crazy as a loon . . . wait, Fletcher Knebel already wrote that one--'Night of Camp David'. It's been DONE, Tom!
Donald Trump? The guy who thinks the Chinese government is paying tariffs into the U.S. treasury? The guys who knows nothing about trade or economics and has no interest in learning? The politician whose only interest is in appeasing his base? The reality TV star?
This column is fantasy.
4
why extend a hand to you adversary when you witness him self destructing?? The president is using bullying tactics that may work with sub contractors (or may be not given the multiple bankruptcies and record losses) but will not succeed with sovereign nations, not with Mexico, not with Europe, not with NATO countries, not with North Korea, not with Iran and certainly not with China. China need not do anything, the problem will go away in less in two years or even in 6 years as the new president will almost certainly have to reset the foreign policy from the current debacle. The US will be much weaker and isolated by then and will need China more than China need it. China’s history span thousands of years and can certainly manage the relationship with a two hundreds year old bully.
2
"And more important [sic], this approach makes the conflict all about America versus China on trade, when this should be about the world versus China on trade. "
Mr. Friedman, if you have been paying attention, it would seem that it's really America versus the world on trade.
In principle Tom's initial suggestion is an excellent one: lock Trump and Xi and their seconds in an island resort and tell them they can't leave until they have solved this problem. I could even see Trump getting his Nobel (albeit in economics) for this one. The only problem is that very serious, hard work would be required...the kind of hard work that Trump has never done in his life. In reality I am more likely to get that Nobel: I know about as much about economics as Trump and would be willing to work a lot harder. Reality check, Tom. Really.
As I recall Hilary and Bernie both called for dropping from the TPP. Chuck Schumer regularly applauds the Chinese and other tariffs. I agree with your points but there is bi-partisan support for Trump’s approach. Sad state of affairs.
‘Emperor of Everything with a Soul-of-Steel’ meets ‘Donald-the-Draft-Dodger’. Not fair.
1
The presumption here is that we have anyone competent enough in this administration to send to China to negotiate, we don't. Would trump send Pence as he did with the Mexicans? Pence is as big an empty suit as trump. Can he send Pompeo, a light weight or Bolton to aggravate them. Who he needs is Hillary Clinton.
Unless congress reins in trump I do not see this ending well, Besides we need to remind trump that China is the largest holder of US debt $1.1 trillion which they can always pull the plug on.
3
Jeez, I wish people would stop treating Trump as if he is a real president, or is in any way interested in what is best for the national interest. Have you not been paying attention?
If the Chinese president gets Trump alone in a room, he will simply offer to deposit $100 million in an offshore account that Trump can access after his term expires (to pay for his coming legal expenses).
Do you not think the Chinese government also have psychological profilers? Or that they don't also have a ton of hacked covert information on Trump?
I'm sure that even the North Koreans have offered him money and also have a ton of dirt on him. They have some very talented hackers too. If the Chinese and the North Koreans have learned anything about Trump, it is that he seems to have an almost pavlovian response to carrot and stick tactics.
3
Political leaders, now, have one more lesson about the way "stability" works, EG, low unemployment and inflation. We want it; we have it! When have U.S. manufacturer's argued successfully that China ripped-off IP and sold it back to us? The U.S. could embargo sales of the item, etc. Contemporary free trade fundamentalism -- much of which Friedman has chronicled -- turns a blind eye to "issues" associated with "freeing" good/services, capital, and labor to cross borders without fees or taxes. One could wax on about our "good" economy; our low prices; the AMAZING innovation that has been the secret partner in our latest "globalization!" What about per capita incomes or SOLs associated with free trade since, say, 1980? Best in all of history, maybe? Tom wrote the book about it, and he knows it is NOT just China! (Apparently Joe Biden gets that, as well!) Trump's agenda, and even that of the Brexiter's, for the time being, has become obsolete. Our President, and Friedman himself, ought to focus now on how Americans can deal with some of the negative effects so they can more fully enjoy the fruits of comparative advantage. For instance, a peanut farmer in the south could buy land in Peru, and grow his crops there. An engineering student or physicist might be taught the Chinese language. It certainly can fall apart; the best course, though, is very plain and Friedman of all people should know that!
If I can help, I'll help.
Which pills will produce no pain? Why do I have to wake up every day? I'm sick of it all.
1
One of the biggest drawbacks to success in the administration's approach to resolving trade disputes with China and many other countries sits in the Oval Office. Trump carries so much baggage behind him, festooned with falsehoods, misrepresentations and outright lies. His choice to abandon multilateral trade agreements and spurning of allies if favor of a myriad of individual trade agreements leaves us isolated with less bargaining power. The writer says that's water over the dam. It's more like opportunities squandered that will be hard to get back to or are now lost forever. Tariffs and more tariffs seems to be the name of the game for this one trick pony.
1
The economies are intertwined but the philosophies behind their individual operations are fundamentally at odds. If this persists, the intertwining will result in one system strangling the other.
Mr. Friedman does a good job of laying out the problems that get in the way of reaching an accommodation, but his solution seems implausible.
Let's face it, those two are never getting together for a weekend retreat to solve anything,much less global and American/Chinese economic issues. For America that's a good thing for now. Our president is so out of his league with Xi it's difficult to fathom. Trump's limitations are legion not the least of which is his lack of historical perspective and world view. If this fantasy meeting were ever to occur Trump would get his "clock cleaned!"
The truth is,he is nothing more than a small time real estate hustler who can work a good con. The only hope America has is to restore leadership to those who grasp the intellectual concepts needed to move the parties towards a more equitable relationship. This will take time,patience and much negotiation on numerous fronts. Trump's simplistic zero sum approach has no chance of success however it could result in serious damage going forward,putting America well behind the "eight ball".
3
"It may be that 2019 will mark the beginning of both the Sino-American geopolitical and economic Cold War." Tom this statement is not correct for many reasons. In fact, it illustrates well the broader misunderstandings among our politicians of China's intent and our historic and continuing inability to impose necessary and significant costs to mitigate those potential regional and national security risks since the 1990's. Tom I urge you to read "Shadow Wars" If you have not, It is a thorough historical account of China and Russia's formulaic approach to achieve global economic and political interests while weakening the US and Western World Order. PS I love your TPP analyses.
1
Trump likes to stamp his feet and yell and be the loudest person in the room at all times. He is also the most ignorant person in the room most of the time. He has no idea how to make deals of any kind since the only deals he was good at making was taking another check from daddy.
3
"Their economies are also totally intertwined. If they start ripping out"
That is exactly the US goal. It is called "decoupling."
We can't go all Cold War on them, with a few hot ones as convenient, while our economies are so tied together. So the US national security state made the choice -- break with China so we can fight China.
Globalization was fine in DC, as long as it only hurt American workers. But when it got in the way of new wars, it had to be stopped. So they are.
3
Like Mr. Friedman, I wish our President would be more thoughtful and careful in what he says and does, rather than reacting like an 8 year old with spite, anger, and deceit as he does on a daily basis. Unlike Mr. Friedman, I have no confidence that mature, adult, honest behavior is possible with Donald Trump. He has not behaved like an honest, trustworthy, responsible adult for the past several decades, and all indications seem to appear that he is suffering from increasingly impaired cognition.
Spending a weekend with anybody other than his sycophants and enablers would sadly be a waste of time and taxpayer money. The more urgent issue is to get a responsible, honest President back in the White House as soon as possible.
4
As long as China remains a totalitarian regime, using slave labor and creating internment camps for a significant part of their Muslim-believing population it is really a wonder that we do as much as we do which has enabled this regime to continue. The blood of the innocent persecuted Chinese is as much on our hands, every time we buy their goods and services.
The Communist Party lives in fear of being deposed, so it lives by inciting fear in the populace who would much rather have freedom, if they could choose it. Don't we owe them that much, or are we too bedazzled with "lowest prices" that have reduced our options to choose from products made here, as too many manufacturing jobs got sent to China to begin with?
3
Weekend? Most people would prefer Trump's retreat be permanent.
2
Historians are warning us against the Thucydides Trap. The geopolitical friction associated with a rising global power. It can escalate into war. Germany’s rise and WW I & II are often cited. That is the danger we face today. Trade tension and navigation disputes can easily escalate especially if used by politicians to burnish their domestic reputations. There is little we can do to influence Xi, but we can regarding our President. This is an especially dangerous time to have an ‘imperial presidency’. It is imperative that we re-establish the power of the Congress to rein in the Executive. The Constitution gives the Congress the right to set tariffs. Its a good place to start.
1
As usual, Friedman depicts our relationship and potential rift with China in a way that underlines the importance of this moment. The emergence of China as an economic, political and military world power mandates that the U.S. deal with them both respectfully and strongly. When you approach someone with two by four and start laying waste to a relationship 40 years in the making, you should expect them to respond in kind. My fear is that we currently have someone at our helm who only knows how to play the short game with brute force. The Chinese have been playing a long game for thousands of years. We desperately need leadership that understands this fact and adjusts accordingly.
3
Those who have amassed power and profits from a tilted playing field sustain their vested interest vigorously, insensitive to those that suffer as a consequence. Our own Wall St, Pharma and Big Tech have been exposed as such predators. Just as we need structural reforms (as proposed by Elizabeth Warren among others) to rein in such corporate behavior, so too the world needs enforceable reforms that cause China to play by the rules.
The TPP without rules applicable to trading with China was just a hope and a prayer for influencing Chinese behavior. We need a TPP with US participation that requires its members to sanction/penalize unfair trade and intellectual property violations of any country the members trade with. Now, that would be leverage to reform Chinese behavior and create a level playing field.
2
For a weekend retreat to be productive, we would have to have a President that could read, listen, reason and understand. Trump has none of those qualities. If it's not about him, he doesn't care.
1
What could possibly go wrong?
4
Trump is incapable of (a) sitting down; (b) negotiating; (c) looking an adversary eye to eye; (d) speaking clearly; (e) not lying; (f) understanding the impacts of tariffs; (g) respecting the Chinese people and their leaders; and (h) soliciting the views and advice of experienced American trade negotiators and diplomats.
Other than these hurdles, a weekend in Singapore and playing a round of golf would suit him just fine.
4
@PaulB67
"Other than these hurdles, a weekend in Singapore and playing a round of golf would suit him just fine."
Trump has even defiled golf. It is now and forever more the favorite recreational pastime of textbook demagogues and fascists everywhere.
The obvious problem with this suggestion that the two leaders meet in Singapore is that neither man really cares about the long term success of the US. Should be clear by now but apparently it’s not.
4
They are both evil.
1
Someone queue the campfire.........
Someone's singing Lord, kumbaya
Someone's laughing, Lord, kumbaya
Someone's crying, Lord, kumbaya
2
Mr. Friedman somehow or another still believes Trump is going to come to his senses.
Trump doesn't have any senses to come to.
Senseless means no incoming information.
Senseless like a teenager's mantra, "I know!"
Trump "knows". He needs no new information.
Might as well send a cat on the weekend retreat that Mr. Friedman suggests.
4
@James Griffin
Mr. Friedman went on a weekend retreat with his cat. The result was this suggestion. Which would be a fine idea if we had a real president of all Americans who put America first and who did not govern with lies, demonization and fear. Friedman made the suggestion and the cat did not disagree.
Mr. Friedman, would you submit to a weekend retreat with DJT?
4
Who would want to spend a weekend with Trump?
2
Give up Tom. China is economically independent and does not really need the USA. India is looking at the situation and saying "there but for the grace of a god go I". They know now that the USA will try to stop them in the same way they are trying to contain China. East Asia with a population of 622 million people now have China as their biggest trading partner. Europe which has 700 million people. Europe does as much trade with China as America does with Europe. India's largest trading partner is ...... CHINA!! Africa's largest trading partner is ....... CHINA. The Latin Trade is being taken over by ....CHINA!! The USA's largest trading partner is ...... CHINA!! Russia and all the "Stans" ..... CHINA!! America has 320 million people heavily indebted to the Chinese and think they can stop the Chinese juggernaut. I don't know about you but using ARAB numerals to calculate the possibility of China giving into to American demands is the fabled "0" which before the Muslims thought it up did not exist. The USA might think that the rest of the world has no contribution to make but history and the here and now says otherwise. Also you need to realize that America does not have any Allies anymore just 0 sum competitors according to Trump.
40
@Alkoh
Er...if you think the Chinese banking system is on solid footing, you are delusional. If you think that China buying American debt gives China some sort of leverage, you need to think more critically. China's money is tied up with the US, but China has no way to collect the debt. Ever.
5
@QED Thats only true if the dollar remains reserve currency status, and China would love to see that change. Your point is valid, just don’t underestimate the damage China can do to the US if they tried.
4
@QED
It isn't the economy it is the culture and China is still a long way from 83% of its people living in cities and suburbs.
Trump lies about everything that is what we call in Yiddish his schtick. When Trump complained about De Blasio and his failure as mayer I couldn't help but watch the media not react at all to Trump's words.
New York is the antithesis of the American myths. It is the safest large city in America and because rural America is statistically less safe than its cities New York City is the SAFEST place in America.Peace and security is what makes NYC unaffordable.
I cannot help but think of Orlando Florida and Hong Kong. They are two cities with Fantasy themed amusement parks named after Walter Disney the animation pioneer and autocratic neoliberal.
Hong Kong with 7 and half million people is the safest places in the world. Orlando inside the walls where the tourists go may be relatively safe greater Orlando a city of 2.5 million people has a crime rate 126% higher (more than twice) than the USA average.
Perception is real in its consequences and Donald tells the truth when he talks about a fake media. Democracy is worth less than nothing if it cannot provide peace and security to its citizens. I believe in liberal Democracy even if Trumps sometimes get elected but without peace and security democracy is worthless.
America needs to stop its boasting and re-examine its foundation. Neoliberalism and democracy are incompatible partners.
3
You are assuming that Trump is a rational, competent man that wants to put America first instead of his ego/wealth.
Your headline is like asking the average citizen of a town to go on a weekend retreat with the corner drunk/eccentric.
The result in both cases would be a waste of time.
4
I wouldn’t trust Trump and his woeful administration to negotiate any complex dealings in trade with China in the interests of America and the world.
He is a man of very limited intelligence and even less knowledge. He is devoid of nuance and strategy.
His administration is as incompetent as he is.
In short, he is full of sound and fury signifying nothing. He is master only of bankruptcies and blarney.
Trump should be forced to resign not go on any retreat with anybody of importance!
2
Take it from us : American image of global bullying is not going to change so long as you decide to keep your crazy guy as Prez in the White House. Looks his core philosophy or ideology is just this: Me, Mine and nobody else.
43
The picture at the top of the article shows Trump shaking hands with the Chinese president.
If he is Xi, no wonder Trump is confused!
The work that would go into such a weekend/summit not only would curtail his golf for several weeks, but is beyond his comprehension let alone his retention level. This guy can't even remember an expensive gift he gave the queen. I would not expect that he could retain , understand and position himself to use the information necessary in this chess match. All that would concern him his the trade balance thru 2020. Please don't send this man-child into that lair .
2
That is the biggest waste of a “one wish” scenario I have ever heard.
19
Mr. Friedman, I understand you have to write an opinion piece like this, and, do appreciate your expertise in this matter, but come on, let's get real, our President reads no briefing books, has primitive understandings of economics, holds deeply racists beliefs about other cultures, I could go on, but, our only real hope is that some event---maybe impeachment---diverts his attention from trade for two years.
1
MAGA means undoing everything any previous President, especially Barack Obama, accomplished.
1
It would help if our so-called president were not an ignorant, corrupt, vindictive bully.
He has never acted or negotiated in good faith as a real estate developer, and he surely will not be starting now.
3
IMHO, anyone who thinks Trump - let along Xi Ping, who is subtler but ruthless - is capable of reason and balance is dreaming. Trump is all vanity, ego, bluster, and bully, and stupid with it. Yes, he's clever enough to do immense amounts of harm and exercise power, and find ways to insult people that grab his fans, but there is not an unselfish bone in his body.
Trump doesn't mind evil; it's an open question whether he recognizes it and made a deal with the metaphorical devil, or whether he thinks everyone is on the make and takes advantage, given a chance.
He's been on the take all his life. He studied at the feet of a master - Roy Cohn - grew up with Roger Stone, was raised by Fred Trump who participate in a KKK march in NY, and created an empire.
Trump doesn't care. He lies because he can.
Fake Christianity doesn't bother him a bit; he would have a very low opinion of "loser" Jesus Christ if he met him. He likes the attention, and doesn't mind pretending. Anyone who helps him profit and promote hatred and exclusion is fine with him; hence the "evangelical" so-called Christians who support him. The sexual predator who promotes fetuses but doesn't care about babies, moms, or families. Blaming the poor, criminalizing poverty, that's fine with him.
There is nothing a conventional retreat would accomplish with either of these two (I don't know XJP, but there's no suspicion of a guy who would back down there either).
Sad but true, there are no magic wands.
3
No we DON'T need them to sit down. Trump is a TERRIBLE negotiator, makes all the wrong decisions and under no circumstances can he be trusted. At all. Ever. Just bide out time until somebody who isn't an incurious narcissist is prez. D.A., JD, NYC
3
We've been overtaken and nobody cares.
1
Chinese president, echoing Obama's quip at a White House Correspondents' Dinner: "Really? Why don't YOU go on a weekend retreat with him?"
1
Friedman needs to acquaint himself with the current president, the bankruptcy king who knows nothing about economics and whose word can never, ever be trusted.
7
From the article: "It [China] now wants to sell the same high-tech products, like 5G telecom, robotics, electric cars and A.I. systems, that America specializes in."
What planet is Mr. Friedman living on? The US doesn't 'specialize' in 'products like' 5G. It has no 5G. The US has ceded its lead in telecom. And China far outstrips the US in electric car sales and production. We are waging a trade war because we are losing the technology war. We should be asking why this happened. Hint: in China many people in government are trained as engineers; our government is dominated by lawyers. Just a thought. And perhaps a bit more focus on improving public education as was done following the launch of Sputnik in 1957.
4
A fine idea, Mr. Friedman. A silent weekend retreat for these two presidents and the rest of us might be just the ticket.
1
"China no longer just wants to sell the U.S. toys and tennis shoes. It now wants to sell the same high-tech products, like 5G telecom, robotics, electric cars and A.I. systems, that America specializes in."
Mr. Friedman, "5G telecom, electric cars, and AI systems" are NOT what America specializes in. Rather, China has gone right past America and is "winning" in these three fields.
5
@Mimi Exactly. America specializes in finance and weapons. That is all.
3
President Donald Trump wants to make the United States into his world view like China and all communist countries. Because it's one of the many ways to have power that leads to unrest among democratic countries.
Uh, no. Globalization is a wealth transfer scheme to move money form the Western middle class into the pockets of the Western wealthy and the poor of the developing world. It is a cancer that needs to be aggressively undermined.
An economic war with China needs to happen, because the China is a mortal threat to the United States. Trump should be looking for ways to destabilize the Chinese banking system, which is riddled with debt, to precipitate a depression in China. He should also be more aggressive pushing the Chinese off of their artificial island bases in territorial waters claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines. We should also formally recognize Taiwan and look for situations that cause loss of face for the Chinese leadership. The goal should be the eventual collapse of the Chinese government and, ideally, the fragmentation of China into more manageable states.
1
Machiavelli was not a nice person, but he did understand what to avoid when you try to get your way.
NEVER make it seem your opponent is lost (except when engaged in a formerly declared war) Do not embarrass your enemy in front of his supporters. These are tactics that will result in your enemy buckling down to avoid having his supporters turn against him.
Friedman's essays seem to indicate he understands diplomacy.
Trump's actions seem to indicate he prefers to violate all the rules of diplomacy. While this plays good to his public supporters, at some point things will snap and backfire.
No mention here about Trust.
Trump's actions over the past 2+ years leaves doubts with many other world leaders as to whether or not he can be trusted to keep is word. The latest tariff threat against Mexico on the heels of agreeing to a new trade agreement being an example of a Trump action that just fortifies this.
So, there is reason for the Chinese to have doubts regarding Trump's word. But perhaps even more importantly, can the Chinese be trusted? Can the Chinese Communist Party be trusted to uphold their end of an agreement? Any agreement? Especially since their approach taken over the past 20-30 years has paid off. Even if they agree to give up a part of that strategy, will they actually do so?
Jared Bernstein wrote a wonderful op-ed recently, noting that US companies sign agreements with the Chinese, knowing they will forego exclusive intellectual property. As Bernstein rightly notes, this isn't stealing; with China, it is a cost of doing business. Remove that cost and US companies have even greater motivation to move their businesses overseas. This means R&D and manufacturing. Bernstein also notes the irony of the US' use of tariffs to punish state support for Chinese businesses. Socialism, which such support is called, is supposed to be an inferior economic system, but with punitive tariffs, the US admits it cannot compete with that system. It also admits that it can't persuade and won't force its own businesses to act in the US' interests by not signing such agreements and doing business with the Chinese. I'd add the irony that while slapping tariffs, Trump, with taxpayer funds, is propping up businesses who are hurt by those tariffs. Socialism? No invisible hand of the market there. Or is he just buying votes?
4
The conflict is well past a mere trade dispute. Has Mr. Friedman read
With Ships and Missiles, China Is Ready to Challenge U.S. Navy in Pacific
NY Times, Aug. 29, 2018
Trade counts, but strategic interests count more
1
Two years ago, Tom Friedman would never have said the President is right to engage in some trade shock therapy with China. He is flip-flopping because he now sees that he miscalculated. Friedman is still miscalculating. The Chinese Communist Party must suffer for what they have done and continue to do, and the only suffering they understand is economic contraction that constrains their corruption. Go back to the '70s if we must.
3
Should this one-on-one meeting ever take place, Mr Xi will have Mr Trump for breakfast.
James McGregor, a Council on Foreign Relations member who has lived in China for three decades recently said this: " ...the Chinese system is working for China better than the American system is working for America".
Mr Trump and his ilk believe we are so powerful that we can bring China to its knees and get China to change its system. That will never happen. These days are long gone.
8
"If I had one wish it would be that the leaders and trade negotiators of the U.S. and China would go on a weekend retreat together"
SURELY you're joking Mr. Friedman!!! Do you really think that Trump is capable of having such a meeting?
2
We have tried the weekend retreat. Ji cannot stomach Trump just like us.
2
That horse is already out of the barn. Exiting TTP opened the gate and Huawei’s whipping the beast to a gallop.
2
TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership)
Stop pretending that Trump is a normal president who is a team player and could function like a typical corporate executive at a management retreat! You are complicit in our never-ending nightmare when you continue to opine that normal measures (weekend retreat, puh-leeze!) are in order to solve the problems a lunatic has wrought. Trump is not normal -- he lacks the intellect, education, morality, good faith, and fellow-feeling that are essential to the role of leader of the free world. Knock it off, Friedman.
8
A weekend retreat in Honduras or El Salvador might be just the ticket.
@Richard
Olancho is good
You can dig a ditch with a backhoe or a shovel.
Donald J. Trump is blindfolded and using a trowel.
The guy does not have the intellectual capacity, diligence, sensitivity, and heart to do the right thing.
So Tom, you can forget this weekend retreat of McDonald's french fries and pot stickers.
3
I fear the U.S. China relationship is like the movie "A Star is Born." The U.S. is on the downhill slide. We can't compete with the one party communist run capitalist economy of China. They pay their workers less, they have weaker environmental laws. They don't have to deal with a gridlocked Congress. They don't have elections or an electoral college that permits an idiot to win the presidency with a minority of the votes. China has a lot of problems, but when they look at us, they see lots of reasons NOT to move towards democracy.
5
If only Trump would clean up one of his messes before he was voted out because the next president is going to have one hell of a mess.
2
People like Trump always prefer the hatchet to the scalpel. It is borne of profound ignorance and a need to show how powerful they are personally. They like to carry a big stick but are constitutionally unable to walk softly. Time after time, this is how wars have been started.
2
Am I mistaken or did the US borrow a whole lot of money from China which continues to this day to accrue interest? If my memory is accurate, then what's to stop China from calling in that debt and thereby bring about the bankruptcy of the USA. If that were to occur, then DJT would then be declared a 'GOAT', as bankruptcy abilities would be concerned. One wonders what sort of 'real' fake news would be put out there by DJT, his enablers, the Republicans, Conservatives, Steve Bannon, and Fox News, which its followers would gobble up?
Unfortunately, the DJT 'true believers/voters' don't understand that one must participate within any entity or agreement in order to accomplish ones' objectives. While withdrawing from those agreements sends a message, it sends the wrong message and exhibits how easy it is to remove you from the table.
Succinctly speaking, one must be at the table in order to be in a position to keep up with its movements away from you. If you are not sitting at the table, your bottom line will tell you that you failed and by then it will be impossible to correct the damage.
@Rita Harris: "... what's to stop China from calling in that debt and thereby bring about the bankruptcy of the USA...
The debt is in bonds, which cannot be called. They are due and payable on a fixed date.
They can be sold to third parties. China could dump enough of their US bonds on the market to force up the rate on new US bonds, but that would devalue what they currently hold. They could also quit buying US bonds, but that would have the same effect.
Anything that China does with its US bonds to hurt America will hurt China as much.
1
@mlbex
Thanks for the explanation. Its the sale to the 3rd party that might be troubling.
Our bully in the China shop knows as much about tariffs as he does about diplomacy and the results thus far speak for themselves.
While Singapore seems to be a nice place for that retreat, it didn’t seem to be the venue that brought Trump any level of success with North Korea. Regardless, anyplace but Mar a Lago would be fine.
Vote.
1
Oh please. This article is pure hypocrisy wrapped in rhetoric. The US was the unprovoked aggressor in this whole trade war. China has no obligation to concede anything, and can and will simply wait out Trump's term while enjoying the spoils of collecting the shattered remnants of American soft power across the globe.
2
China is unsustainable. As long as it has the ability, it will engage in predatory trade practices and strip the world of its resources. When it fails to do so, it will melt down.
America has engaged in its share of predatory trade practices too, but there's a difference. America didn't need to act that way to maintain a reasonable lifestyle. China does. Too many people and not enough resources equals expand or go hungry. To their credit, they're working assiduously on the 'too many people' side of that equation.
Any analysis of the trade talks must take this into account or it will yield an inaccurate result.
I don't think the world was that much more dangerous before 1979 and the opening to China. What danger there was to us came from the Soviet Union, now gone. Reverting to that pre-1979 situation might not be so bad.
If the effect of tariffs and tough talk is to bring American manufacturing home, the higher cost of labor here will likely increase some product prices, but it will also reduce China's trade surplus which they are using to fund a modern military.
A reduction in China's income would also reduce their ability to undermine the existing global order and institutions that Mr. Friedman seems to care so much about. When you're in a hole, stop digging. Trump gets that, Tom Friedman doesn't.
1
"Trump should have signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which brought together the 12 biggest Pacific economies excluding China, representing 40 percent of global G.D.P., behind American trade standards — and then sought to bring along the European Union as well — into a single coalition to negotiate a new trade regime with Beijing. Instead, Trump tore up TPP and alienated the Europeans by imposing various steel and aluminum tariffs on them. So foolish."
He has demonstrated a complete inability to think beyond what would score points with his ignoarnt base.
He is incapable of studied discipline and exists within a range of shallow perspective typical of mental patients staring and lashing out at shadows.
Please do not imbue him with any potential for empirical annalysis or coherent equilibrium.
108
It's important to point out the foibles of Trump, because these policies are weakening the US. Hopefully we can get past these mistakes.
But when the majority of Trump's base believes that the TPP should have been torn up because the US was getting "ripped off", or that base believes that tariff's are NOT taxes on the US, how do you combat this ? Trump is doing what his base wants him to do.
Getting back to the TPP. Perhaps it wasn't everything that the US wanted, but how could it be? It's a big world out there and everyone wants something, and the US is not going to bully everyone around like it used to.
Until Trump's base learns to work with the rest of the world, or Congress grows a spine, that's simply how it is. Short term very bad for the country, because important agreements like TPP are absolutely necessary for our country to prosper.
Them's the facts.
80
@Martin
Trump could sell the TPP to his base. They aren't paying that much attention to detail. Look at the USMCA, it's pretty much NAFTA with cheese.
3
@Martin
Martin,
Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia disagrees with you.
North
2
@Martin
Bernie and Hillary both opposed TPP though, so there's that.
3
Dear Mr. Friedman:
How could you? How could you think that Mr. Trump is capable of rational thought?
Many years ago, after a trip to the grocery store, I sent emails to both my Texas U.S. Senators complaining about the high price of milk. Both responded. One response was clearly neutral while the other response by my senator's AI bot, looked at my rural zip code an ensured me that he was doing all he could to keep the prices of milk as stable as possible to protect the dairy farmer.
Thomas, my friend, you have become that senator's AI bot.
Sincerely,
Bill
2
Traveling in Asia, everyone is talking about 2 things. One, Trump’s tariff threat on China and how that might affect lives here (almost every product or part is manufactured in China) and Two, how America has become such a bad place where people shoot each other every single day. Here in this part of Asia, the people think Americans walk around with guns shooting each other, having zero value of human life. They are scratching their heads, what is this obsession of guns.
4
Putin is delighted at Trump's progress to destroy America and any other part of the world he can. Let's congratulate Mr. Putin!:The REAL winner.
1
@Darkler: In the long run, Russia has more to fear from China than it does from America. China would love to annex Siberia and the resources there. By some accounts, there are already more Chinese in Siberia than Russians.
2
"Trump was livid, and on May 10, he hiked the tariffs..."
This is why it is useless for Trump to meet privately with anyone. He is is not versed in the Art of Negotiations. Just a big baby, as so artfully presented by the London protesters.
1
No tweeting? I guess we know will not attend.
1
How to proceed aside, have journalists or our government given voice to the FACT that China is now involved with Making Ties for Years With Many Countries?
China has built many ports around the globe while President Obama dawdled ... and now President Grifter White-Supremacist dawdles, trashes our allies and makes fun of African countries?
Another FACT- China and Russia Grow Closer as Trump dawdles in the WH with his family making as much money as they can.
I do not see what a weekend together with the Chinese president can do here but why not so that our attention can possibly be drawn to sobering facts as China makes "friends" with another country or two while the Trump threatens Venezuela as its people flee it.
1
Trump on a retreat... you must be kidding. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry at that prospect.
There are better suggestions in the comments ... the suggestion for a Yalta/like summit for instance.
Funny how in the US popular opinion is the rule of the day/way. China on the other hand has an oligarchy topdown rule of government that forbids the masses from exercising or expressing their opinion(s) that is deemed influential.We in the US know this while the world understands and views Chinas' policy: which consequently in my opinion give the communist the upper hand when it comes to implementing any type of trade practice.
1
What good would a retreat with an irrational President Trump and any head of state do?
Tom it can only work if we had an intelligent President and
the people in his administration were not all "Yes" people. I hope the 60% who know Trump is a useless President will get out and vote in 2020.
1
Trump is daily throwing rocks into the water just to watch the ripples and his reflection in the water and proclaim there are more and more wondrous ripples than anytime in the history. All the analysis presupposes rhyme and reason for his actions. His base has enabled him to make up stuff as he goes along. They've let the drunk at the end of the bar take over the biggest bully pulpit of all. And we have to listen to this fool every day. Do I hear the faint sound of protest from McConnell and friends on tariffs? A light at the end of the tunnel? A crack in the armor? Or just a brief respite until the next rock is thrown into the water?
2
Yes, they should go on a weekend retreat. And not come back.
3
Who would be Robinson Crusoe and who would be Friday?
1
The last thing the US needs is Trump negotiating personally with Xi. "Hey look, a squirrel!"
Bob Lighthizer is exactly the right person for the job. The reason there is no deal is because he's not going to be the 99th naive fool who accepts promises from a regime that the whole world knows will break them. He has asked for enforcement mechanisms. They promised, then reneged. We should accept no deal without them.
That's the nature of Xi and the CCP. Hoping for some friendly outcome is a waste of time. They never stopped fighting the Cold War. So long as they're in power, they won't.
Keep fighting, Trump. It's the only thing you've got right.
9
@West Coaster
US became a world leader in the 20th century, not because of any inherent wonderfulness, or the delusion that we have a special deal with God or gods. Breakthrough happened when US finally realized that acting in isolation, without allies, is stupid, will always fail. All US economic growth (and assumed "greatness") came AFTER it dropped its deluded isolationism, helped lead the world away from it and the zero-sum tribalism that begat Great Depression, WWII, nuclear cold war.
Instead, new cooperation such as NATO, the UN, Marshall Plan, the WTO, NAFTA, Nuclear Disarmament changed the old path of human history. But ... each of these contain imperfect compromises which civilization breakthroughs always require.
By finally REJECTING rejecting the stupid view of go-it-alone, "America first" that fed economic and fascist delusions after WWI and global Depression, US was able to help lead the world into unprecedented (but imperfect, of course) prosperity, peace, and sanity.
Ignoring that evolution now, because it's imperfect or we lost our memory... is captured perfectly by the giant baby balloon of Trump (..but let's include more balloon buffoons: Putin, Farage, Le Pen, Erdogan, Xi, Modi). Like all shallow rock stars, their popularity is always temporary. Most humans will not let these vicious opportunists drag us us back to the 1920's (or the dark ages!).
Delusion is: Always going it alone when you don't get exactly what you want (..duh!!).
1
Well done Mr. Friedman. At the end of the day, the voters in the Midwest wanted a president who punches other leaders in the mouth. Who could have known that this would be a bad approach to negotiating trade agreements?
1
We have a President Trump that at his best couldn't come close to understanding the complexities of the supply chain or true intent of Chinese business practices.
We have the Chinese that do not want to compete on a level playing field and are using the Belt and Road initiative to exploit third world countries of their rare earth metals and natural resources.
We have President Xi Jinping that understands that being more transparent with any of China's real goals could mean undermining his communist government.
We have a Chinese government that discloses economic numbers that we are not sure if we can trust with the world being nervous about how much debt the Chinese really has.
We are all waiting for the "bust" part of the boom and bust cycle of capitalism to hit China.
We have a world that looks the other way constantly with China on just about every value we claim to uphold starting with human rights because everyone wants Chinese business.
With this list and more, how exactly can we reach a successful conclusion here?
Sadly, I feel that our leadership is not intelligent or sophisticated or strategic enough to even get us close to a good conclusion.
5
I am an American citizen grown up in Hong Kong. I am not a fan of Mr. Xi because installing himself effectively as emperor for life is a clear reversal of the modernization and globalization trends in China. Nonetheless, Trump's idea of using tariff to pressure Mr. Xi is plain stupid without an understanding of history and psychology. China is still recovering from the humiliation of colonialism of 19th and early 20th century. This external pressure will just consolidate Xi's rule toward Chinese nationalism and will set up a new cold war. As Mr. Friedman understands, China is not a fair partner in trade but all confrontation and no collaboration is going to back fire. China will rise and the peaceful, collaborative rise of China should be the ultimate goal. The only way to do it is through inspiring Chinese citizens to demand a more liberal democratic society sharing a common value system. A value system that is in danger in America because of Mr. Trump's own nationalism instincts.
80
@Peter couldn't agree with any more.
1
@Peter
You would think that Tom Friedman would understand the overriding influence of the humiliation of the history of colonialism in China from the 19th to 20th centuries.
That the CCP has brought the nation from the depths of poverty to the second most powerful economy in the world in seventy short years is something that all Chinese are proud of.
That pride makes Trump's bullying via tariffs or isolation or bans not just ineffective but offensive not only to China's leaders but to its people.
Friedman suggests that Trump and Xi meet to give them "a clear road map back into our markets if they demonstrate that they’ve cleaned up their act."
Does Friedman get that this arrogance is what made China decide to cancel the "deal" that Trump, Navarro, and Lighthizer were so sure was a "done deal?"
Three "ugly Americans" got the door slammed in their faces. Trump's going about this all wrong.
8
Bread and circuses are the marks of regimes that ask nothing from their citizens other than docility.
Confrontation with China should be a generational project to remind Americans that peace and security are neither free nor cheap. Prices may go up, profits may decline but standards of living can be shaped to emphasize a new compact with our allies that buttress labor standards, environmental standards along with free trade.
The prospect of a weekend retreat to give Western politicos the cover to appease China is bad advice.
The open border trade policy works well for developing countries. Japan benefited from it when they started exporting cars and motorcycles here. Thailand and the Philipines also benefited from this transfer of wealth. They build cars and motorcycles for Japan, Italy and England too. Mexico is building auto's for the US along with appliances. That barely covers it but as economies grow poverty is diminished. It's China's turn transfer it's wealth.
But how do we maintain a balance. Are all manufacturing jobs going overseas? Does a Syrian or Indian have more of right to work here as an American? If you say yes you're not worried about losing your job and maybe you should be.
1
@JoeG
Our industry moved their production to where the cheap labor was. It was inevitable that China would catch up and provide a higher standard of living for its people.
Trade deals are giving and taking, but Trump only wants to take and claims the US is always the victim. He points the gun when diplomacy is required.
@ARL
Your job is so unique no one could do it cheaper? So you don't like his style. Neither do I but what would the Democrats do? Nothing.
2
Don't remember the June, 2013 meeting in California between newly installed Xi and the newly re-elected President Obama. There was not the usual agenda of violation claims, complaints and generally negative topics.
Obama instead wanted to start a presidential relationship with Xi to avoid the squabbling that prevented substantive advancement of both economies.
Then the world happened.
Mr. Friedman says Obama was naive (previous column) by trusting the Chinese to play by the rules.
Everybody forgets: other than raw materials, there is nothing the West has the Chinese want to buy. Think Opium Wars.
The Chinese leap out of poverty has been amazing, basically since Deng opening up the workshops to make western consumer, later industrial, products.
Now China has leaped again from supplier to competitor in the most advanced fields of science and tech. While we scream infringement, China goes to market.
3
This may be Tom Friedman's worst idea yet.
Trump can not be trusted to have an extended stay with an actual national quality leader. The Chinese will be moving into the White House after Trump gives away the store, exhausted from trying to think for longer than a tweet or two
We will make real trade relations progress when we evict Trump from the presidency, replace him with a competent patriot who hold the national interest first and foremost.
7
When Communist China abandoned Marxist economics for capitalism, without abandoning the absolute authority of the Communist Party, it essentially created the largest privately-held corporation in the world. It has the ideal combination of comparatively cheap and largely controlled labor and no meaningful legal oversight. China ignores international "values," international laws and, indeed, its own laws.
A friend of mine likes to quote his economics professor from college, that capital flows where it is welcomed. China welcomed the capital of the "free world," and became the world's low-cost manufacturer. When voices in the consumer market complained about China's near-slave labor conditions, China minimally loosed their chains and paid them a slightly-above subsistence wage. The criticism disappeared.
China is playing a long-term game. Mr. Trump and his American business allies simply want a "deal." And China has centuries of experience playing the long game.
Our leaders, and our editorial writers, must always remember that there is nothing "free" about Communist China, not its tightly-controlled and subsidized capital-based economy, not its society, and certainly not its disdain for the rule of anyone's law, even its own.
Back in 1975, my poli sci professor predicted that the world's democracies would become more authoritarian, and the world's communist countries would move toward market economics. China proves his point on one side.
What is America doing?
5
It’s weird this article doesn’t mention the WTO. Disdain for international institutions is a big part of what’s going on. We have more clout and more credibility by establishing rules for trade we’re willing to abide by. The EU has the same 18% of Chinese exports we have. We should be using that leverage.
The current negotiations mix valid concerns about subsidies and intellectual property theft with unabashed economic warfare—protecting our technology edge. That’s natural when we think we can dictate, but it’s ultimately unproductive. It will lead to a fractured world economy with downsides for everyone. We’re not so weak that we need to be afraid of real competition.
China is still classified as a developing country for the WTO. Everyone expected that to be renegotiated between East and West. This could be a lot more productive and a lot less painful.
4
China’s trade practices are not abusive; they are typical of countries at China’s level of development. Take IP, for example, which seems to be the biggest compliant against China. The US Chamber of Commerce ranks China’s IP protection exactly where you’d expect given its GDP per capita level: just below Malaysia and Mexico (which also have slightly higher GDP per capita than China), but above many other large developing countries like Brazil, Russia, and Turkey (https://www.theglobalipcenter.com/ipindex2019/). Anecdotally, having visited China twice, once in the early 2000s and once in 2015, it seems that they’ve made great progress in IP protection; the stands selling pirated CDs that were everywhere in my first trip were completely gone in my second. China has also clearly made a lot of progress in improving workers’ wages, and it seems that people have largely stopped complaining about unfairly low Chinese wages like they used to (perhaps that complaint was a pretext all along?)
The way to get China to open up more is opening-for-opening. For example, Obama negotiated reciprocal visa extensions with China, so both countries started granting each other’s citizens 10-year visas instead of 1-year. This led to a large increase in Chinese tourism and business investment in the US in the last years of Obama’s second term, bringing in tens of billions of dollars to the US. Trump has not achieved any similar concrete results; to the contrary, we are getting closing-for-closing.
1
I was born in one of those countries where freedom is something you can only dream of. One of those countries that Mr. Trump has derided repeatedly. But I strongly support Mr. Trump when it comes to the trade war with China.
Mr. Friedman offers a solution for a world that will soon cease to exist. We will soon be living in a digital world. And I don't want that world to be controlled by China.
What we need is a Yalta like summit after which countries will choose which side to join, a US or a Chinese lead digital world.
Let countries choose between WeChat/Facebook, Weibo/Twitter, Toudou Youkou /Youtube.
Freedom has no price. The US is not perfect. The US has made mistakes, but I believe that a world lead by the US will always be better than a world lead by the Communist Party of China.
Fast forward 50 years from now. China is the sole superpower. China will be using sanctions the same way the US does to assert and defend its interests. To think otherwise would be naive.
Let it be two digital worlds. One for those who love freedom and one for those who don't. I'm a millennial and I don't want my grandchildren to live in a world dominated by the Communist party of China. If I have to pay an extra $100 for my phone, so be it.
34
@Chaks
I have a much better solution - a multipolar world. The World does not have to be lead by one power.
Digital world - we have digital world already. Technology is apolitical. It is only used by politicians to stir trouble.
I was born in a Soviet block country. I can see the pluses and minuses of the two different system - socialism and free market capitalism. Neither of them is ideal. But China is different anyway. One can start a business there and be a billionaire. Compared with the soviet block, ordinary people have every practical freedom they can wish.
The lack of freedoms is overstated, and it is hard to believe that Americans care so much for the freedom of other people anyway. It is more likely that you would like them to have a system that would let you to exploit them.
Accept that their are different. Step down from your belief that you are exceptional and destined to guide and police the world. Try to negotiate the best deal without trying to change their system. They are not trying to change yours. If you can't get what you want, protect yourselves, but it does not need to be a trade war that can morph into a hot war.
11
@Chaks
It is not a freedom-led world if the US government is telling you what Internet services to use. Consumers around the world should be free to use whatever services they want; this should not be dictated by the US, China, or any other government.
@Chaks
trade is the only tool pres trump has to manage the huge trade imbalance, which, unaddressed and unchecked, ultimately is an economy killer and consequently a freedom killer.
1
“While I agree with Trump’s core instinct that the trade issue had to be addressed in strategic fashion....” Strategy was Trump’s core instinct? What is the evidence for that? Especially since in the very next sentence, you note that Trump should have signed the TPP. From January 2017 until today, the US policy has been one blunder after another. Just the opposite of strategic.
65
Funny (not) that for so many years US corps argued that their presence in China would help "normalize" the country, when in reality (and predictably) they accomodated to the Chinese government. And meanwhile the US became the mirror image of China: corporate surveillance of people, labor rights diminished, consumer rights diminished, oligarchical power exercised by corps, wage convergence (US stagnation), democracy diminished, etc.
There is an alternative that does not seem to be suggested in this article: Outcompete them. Is this due to a lack of confidence? Do we really not believe in the superiority of our systems? Or is it because that would require such dramatic changes to the current economic, political, and social culture in our country that it will simply not be considered? Hence we hammer China to change instead of us. It is easier and we have had decades of world domination in which to grow fat and lazy. We prospered when the rest of the world was economically beneath us and striving to catch up. Suddenly we are the rabbit who is losing to the tortoise.
I'm not excusing the Chinese. I'm saying: "Look in the mirror."
5
@Thomas
I agree. One thing that always comes up for me is : Are we just getting a taste of our own medicine here? We practiced economic imperialism for decades. And when the Japanese, Koreans, and Chinese beat us at our own game, we cried 'FOUL' and now we demand they play by our rules. The arrogance of Americans is not understanding why others would behave this way toward us. These negotiations cannot be held in a vacuum. Gotta start looking at this as you do in sports: When the field is tilted toward one team over others (think Yankees or Patriots), other teams playing at a clear disadvantage relish it when the perennial favorites come out on the losing end. Then when other teams break the rukes, they are ppunished. The big teams get slapped on the wrist. l
7
@Thomas Thank you for this- "Do we really not believe in the superiority of our systems?" If state subsidies a la Made in China 2025 are so inefficient, why not let China waste its money? They may win in some areas but in the end the US market picking winners and losers will prevail, right? Americans do need to get themselves together in math and science proficiency. Here we have reason to be unconfident.
1
In the mind of a 3-year old (our Dear Leader) it's all a zero-sum game: for one side to win, the other must lose. Indeed, he'd be willing for the US to lose much (fake news!), as long as the other side lost more.
6
I really don't believe that two dictators can go on a weekend retreat, and accomplish anything substantial, as neither can admit to what are their own weaknesses, or their countries failings. Good luck with that one!
3
The most important point made,
"It may be that China’s government simply cannot or has no desire to change its growth model — hard work, smart infrastructure and education investments, a high savings rate, plus lots of unfair trade practices — because it would mean the end of Communist Party rule."
As long as the leaders of the now "Chinese Fascist Party" believe that true open trade could unleash forces spelling their doom, they will not cooperate, they might even intensify nationalistic urges such as absorbing Taiwan.
2
@Gregory
China has been interfering with the elections in Taiwan and will continue to subvert its democracy. Taiwan is very important to the United States and to other countries in Asia. The countries that are stakeholders in Taiwan’s independence must come to Taiwan’s defense if China invades Taiwan but most importantly help Taiwan prevent armed aggression. China has for years marginalized and isolated Taiwan’s 23.5 million democratic people. The Chinese communists have never ruled Taiwan so Beijing’s use of the term “reunification” is code for annexation. The Taiwanese do not want to lose their identity and freedoms to China. China is not their “motherland”. Taiwan is.
1
Mr Friedman characterizes the president's withdrawal from the TPP and his imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on the EU as merely 'foolish'. Trump is foolish only on his best days; his administration's catastrophic record in foreign relations has been nothing less than devastating to America's reputation for even handedness and nothing less than depressing and utterly confounding to the whole wide world apart from Saudi Arabian princes like Mr Bone Saw and Israel's hard line right wingers.
9
Boys having a spat? You act as though this is a normal time and a normal negotiation between the biggest global players. You are saying both sides are bad actors to equalize (and thus negate) the assignment of blame. This is not a normal President. He is brash, flighty, unable to comprehend the subtleties of history and culture. In the face of such incompetence, if one is unable to take advantage, it is only logical to wait him out.
That is the meaning. It’s what most Americans are doing as well; waiting for character and intelligence to return to the White House
7
Remember back in 2016 when Samsung was taken to court by Apple over copying? This went to the US Supreme Court and the Korean company was forced to pay hundreds of millions in damages.
Now this blatant copying and theft of IP must have cost US tech companies dearly and Huawei would be liable for billions in damages. And yet, I haven't heard of a single court case against Huawei to claw back their stolen gains.
Billions up for grabs and not a single court case against Huawei for IP theft? Have I missed the news or is the evidence of copying a little less clear-cut than claimed?
8
@herne
Companies that have suffered IP theft from Huawei have either sued and signed NDAs or have decided not to sue because they would lose market potential in China. They have taken the discreet but cowardly way out.
The Wall Street Journal did some excellent reporting on May 25. If you have Google where you are:
“Huawei’s Yearslong Rise Is Littered With Accusations of Theft and Dubious Ethics - Chinese giant says it respects intellectual property rights, but competitors and some of its own former employees allege company goes to great lengths to steal trade secrets.”
1
@herne
There was one court case involving Huawei (about the engineer who stole the robot testing finger). A US jury awarded about $5 million.
Think about that. The worst IP case that could be proven against Huawei caused $5 million in damages. Small potatoes compared to many IP cases involving non-Chinese companies where the damages were in the hundreds of (not just Apple and Samsung, but also the $250 million case between Uber and Waymo). Focusing solely on IP infringement against Chinese companies when your IP is much more likely to be infringed by a fellow American company is discriminatory, like focusing solely on murders committed by immigrants when you are much more likely to be murdered by a fellow American citizen.
1
@herne
There was one court case involving Huawei (about the engineer who stole the robot testing finger). A US jury awarded about $5 million.
Think about that. The worst IP case that could be proven against Huawei caused $5 million in damages. Small potatoes compared to many IP cases involving non-Chinese companies where the damages were in the hundreds of millions (not just Apple and Samsung, but also the $250 million case between Uber and Waymo). Yet no one is claiming the US government should punish Uber, Apple, or Samsung beyond what was awarded in court. Focusing solely on IP infringement by Chinese companies when your IP is much more likely to be infringed by a fellow American company is discriminatory, like focusing solely on murders committed by immigrants when you are much more likely to be murdered by a fellow American citizen.
This is the second article where Mr. Friedman openly accepts- reservedly- an international stance upheld by Mr. Trump. The first article, quite recently, was under the puzzling title of “China Deserves Donald Trump’.
Mr. Friedman is a serious and fair analyst. He is deeply concerned with the major issues, of direct impact, on the current state and the future of the world at large.
Yes, it is true that, escalating the “Trade war” into a full scale “Economic war” between US and China, will undermine the most inspiring evidence of, a successful global, productive trade and cooperation scheme.
I think that, the call of Mr. Friedman for both of the presidents to go on a (Long) Weekend Retreat, is absolutely workable- if the surroundings- of that Retreat, will maintain the conditions given in the call.
Why such a call could be workable?
The history, reminds us of the PING PONG diplomacy of the 1970s, which led to the US recognition of China!!. After half a century, the two biggest economies “need a level playing field — but not a new battlefield”…. Right you are Mr. Friedman
1
Ok, I'll bite. Just what has Trump negotiated in the time of his administration leads you to the idea that he is the best person to sit down with the Chinese leader? How has he shown that he is capable of the give and take that leads to grudging respect?
He was our negotiator with North Korea.
Hugh
2
Trump is like the Wizard of OZ and it is time for the Press to start identifying the individuals behind the Curtain that are calling the shots.
2
Whenever you negotiate with someone, the best outcomes are when both sides feel they have won. We got.....They got. Trump is not that kind of guy. He is a We got.....They gave guy. And he just loves to rub his opponents nose in it. Can't help himself. NO ONE likes to be treated that way. So....here is a guy who hasn't completed a deal with China...Has no idea how it will play out. Refuses to be an international partner with anyone. And he starts to use that strategy with Mexico. Well here is one strategy....Trump feels Americans should be patient and sit tight and they will come away winners. Does he not think China and Mexico could also do that? For China....no matter how much pain is felt, their leader is going no where. And Mexico just elected theirs. But Trump.....he is teetering. If these places want a more rational negotiating partner, all they have to do is sit tight and let the tariffs do their thing. And the Republicans will have to decide if the 'good old days' under Trump were something to be proud of. In a normal world, a Hong Kong summit would be a wonderful idea. When one of the negotiators is a whiny child and all the others are power crazy xenophobes, it would likely make things far worse than better. Gaming the system to cover their losses is not something average Americans can do. Let's see how 'willing' they are to watch their 'gains' from the past two years disappear.
3
If the world is an unfair place, it is because the treaties and world organizations governing it are naturally for those who made them. (Japan's struggles and ultimate derangement was an endeavor to overcome unfair treaties foisted by the US in 1854 and followed by others.) If anything the US must be a beneficiary of the supposedly fair systems since the world order was built and adjusted by the US after WWII. So what Mr Trump is saying and doing amounts to his predecessors all being fooled or foolish failing to keep the orders for the US's favor. Then what he should do is incremental adjustments of what he conceived as unfair, as seemingly required by diplomatic protocols. Abandoning all the niceties and tweeting as his gut dictates he is making the world a dangerous place again.
2
Trump has always believed in tariffs. Republicans have never believed in tariffs. Trump loves to be in a fight. It makes this completely inadequate man feel strong. A secluded and private's meeting between these two leaders runs the risk of Trump leaving in a huff like he did in Korea.
The secret with Trump is that he wants things to go 100% his way and when they don't he throws a tantrum like the spoiled child he has always been. Negotiating in private will not change this.
3
We cannot cry foul when we started this whole trade war problem in the first place. It started with US companies going to China and training the Chinese workers and managers in textile technology and then progressed to other products. All because they wanted cheap labor and to rid themselves of paying American workers a living wage. These Corporation thought nothing of exploiting American workers and the Chinese workers. Now we all are paying the price of their greediness.
What the Americans never understand is that the Chinese are very patient and are willing to take years to learn what they need to do to build a strong Country. Unlike the United States. We are the nation of instant gratification.
How could US companies be so naive thinking the Chinese would not take what they learned and use it to their advantage to build their own economy. In fact they have built it so well, that they are now our biggest lenders to our Government.
Then you have Trump, who has never seen a Treaty that he thought should be honored. He has put all of our Allies in a position of distrusting our word as he keeps tearing up Treaties. By the way, most of these Treaties have bee advantageous to our country.
We no longer are considered the greatest nation in the world thanks to our own short-sightedness. And Trump has no far-sighted policies whatsoever. So why do we think he can bring any other country to the negotiating table and end up changing is mind. Trump cannot be trusted.
13
“Our goal should be to move China toward global best practices on all these issues”
This sounds an awfully lot like appeasements to a country that has primed itself for global expansion. China will no doubt invade a country within a decade.
1
Global expansion?
From your own experience, considering that US invaded somebody 45 times in the last 120 years, aside from WWI and WWII?
Source: Wikipedia
1
@Pilot
If China adopts the American model, no doubt they will invade many countries. Thank God they won't.
1
Several interesting words in your article including battlefield and coalition. While the current administration has many flaws, its combative nature, treating everything as a battle, (essential to retain popularity with its core) renders it impossible to achieve a coalition with other nations on almost any issue, including trade. You have long argued that it is essential to recognize the global nature of the planet in virtually all aspects of life. Trump's isolationist and nationalist policies will harm the entire world for decades if not stopped. His tariff/trade debacle is just one example of the mess he is creating.
11
It is understandable that a bit of excessively alarmist tone in an article draws the attention of the readers.
However, if the current political show business of the POTUS about the Yellow Threat is rightly placed in the economic and financial global context, there is no such alarm neither in the USA market nor in the Asian and European markets.
There is no dramatic fall of stocks and bonds and no recession in the next future.
The markets are fully aware of the fact that great parts of the Chinese economy are Euro-American and that China is the source of financing the US federal debt and as well as the origin of foreign direct investments in the USA.
Finally, why the American should break the wonderful profit making engine they have developed in China since the Nixon era?
DO NOT FORGET: REPEATING JAPAN SCHEME MIGHT BE DANGEROUS FOR THE PLANET.
3
Obviously Friedman hasn't study the Huawei case in depth - or he would know how incredibly thin the evidence of intellectual property theft is. US sanctions against the company are an attempt to crush a competitor. Cybersecurity and theft of intellectual property theft are just flimsy excuses.
Sure, with China becoming richer and stronger the relationship needs to change. But that requires clear goals and subtle means - neither of which is visible. This is not Trump's fault. It was Obama who started the collision course with his Pivot to Asia and his TPP. As in many other policies Trump is just pursuing Obama's policies to their logical end.
Unlike other countries - that know the price of war - the US has always been in thrall of war and has a long history of cherishing its enmities. China and Iran are just the latest countries that the US loves to hate. There is no place for rationality here - this is an area where Trump is at the heart of mainstream US politics.
5
Donald Trump will have a true heart-to-heart with Xi Jinping the same day Theresa May announces that she was completely wrong about Brexit, Benjamin Netanyahu embraces the Palestinians, Vladimir Putin realizes that he should fully support Western democracy, and Kim Jong-un has the epiphany that nuclear weapons are not the answer. None of this will happen. These are all pipe dreams.
If we expect things to get better with China, or with anything else for that matter, we need to remain focused on ensuring that Trump does not win reelection next year.
14
I grew up in DC in the 50’s. At the time NY was the bigdog city and Washington was a quaint town. NY has not diminished in its iconic strength as our first city but DC, Chicago, LA, Phoenix, have all grown and are all vibrant cities of their own. The US was head and shoulders above the world in 1960, but the world has grown up, especially China. Mr. Friedman is correct only a man with 19th century thinking and concrete for brains would think the the US should try to bully the rest of the world.
9
@William D Trainor
I had another word for Trump’s brain and it wasn’t concrete. Concrete is too flattering.
1
President Xi can go through the appearance of negotiating with Trump, but what I think he is actually doing is swatting at a fly. President for life Xi, has nothing but time on his side as was apparent when he took the “nearly completed” trade deal and decided to “trump” Trump”. By gutting a deal that was months in the making, Xi, humiliated the President and his negotiating team. Xi’s has time on his side and a little discomfort to him is a small price to pay to teach Trump that coercion is never going to work with China. Xi, established that he is driving the negotiations. Trumps trade war while painful is a small price for China to pay to establish to the world that there are two great economic powers and one is poised to dominate.
3
While China is still growing, and their living standard is much lower than the US, there is no level playing field.
The Chinese don't want to continue as the supplier of cheap toys and shoes for Americans.
Americans must accept this. They should also start thinking about making their own shoes and toys. This may require tariffs and subsidies, but it does not need trade war and abuses.
To the other aspect of the rivalry - geopolitics. As the Singaporean Prime Minister said the other day - China is here to stay, and America should learn to live with it.
How can the US claim that West Pacific belongs to the US? Freedom of navigation - what a joke. Shifting more and more weapons to South Korea and Japan - for what?
Yes, agree with Friedman that China must, over time, change their practices and accept that others need jobs and markets, but the US must acknowledge China as a power and vacate their sphere.
A new Jalta conference is needed, and not only for China and America.
1
@Joe43
China has been interfering with your politics and democracy for years now, subverting your local and national policies and distorting your elections. Are Australians ok with that? Read Clive Hamilton’s “Silent Invasion”. He’s Australian.
1
"It would help if we were mobilizing every one of our allies in this project, not hammering them with tariffs, too. It would help if we had a president who was more respected around the world and did not always have to be seen as “winning” and the other guy as losing."
This is the key statement. Trump has few if any allies. The TPP was a great start and I agree that it was foolish to tear it up. The GOP controlled Senate needs to stand strong and not give in to Trump's immaturity and ego. The Senate must also not give in to the nationalists on Trump's team that believe international trade is a zero-sum game.
6
I realize having Xi Jinping babysit Trump for a weekend will allow the entire country to have a reasonably stress-free weekend over here, but I fear the price we'll have to pay Xi when we get home to the brat might be much steeper than $15 an hour.
7
Come on, we all know that Trump knows NOTHING about EVERYTHING. What would the point be of a weekend retreat with a well=prepared, thinking human being and Trump, who, I wouldn't be surprised, couldn't even find China on a map? But then, he has advisers, I know. Ivanka and Jared are very useful, I'm sure.
16
Friedman fails to grasp one core problem -- that for the US globalism has meant internationalization of manufacture and trade, and the creation of a supply chain that provides opportunity for many, if not most, nations to enjoy their slice of the total economic pie. For China the world globalization means a goal of global domination and, to the extent that an international supply chain is necessary, it will be China that owns it hook, line an sinker.
4
@JJ Gross
I doubt that the goal of US globalism was just sharing of the pie. It gave US corporations access to disciplined and cheap labour, and created immense wealth for them. Now China is a market 5 times bigger than the US for them to exploit.
China with its size can not be stopped. Whether they want to dominate other countries just for the sake of it - who knows. But Americans should accept that for other people it does not matter whether it is China or the US who dominates them. They are getting help from China, so lets take it.
2
Friedman’s hope to gradually change the Chinese regime’s trade practices is folly.
For twenty years we’ve been told that enabling Chinese economic development will lead to liberalization.
It turns out the opposite has happened. Chinese trade practices are no better than they were.
In the meantime, the regime is perfecting an authoritarian system that combines the worst of socialism, technology, and capitalism into the first potentially profitable alternative to liberal democracy the world has ever seen. Dictators and oligarchs - would-be and otherwise - the world over are paying attention.
And ask Uigurs and the untold millions other oppressed minorities (whom Friedman barely bothers to acknowledge) how that’s going.
I despise Trump, but an economic Cold War is precisely what is needed to curb this obvious threat to global well being. The Chinese regime needs economic growth to buy its continuous existence. It buys off it’s own people by offering mountains of debt-fueled growth in place of freedom. It buys off the international community with cheap manufacturing. And I suppose it buys off pundits and politicians with some pretty words about globalism at well-heeled retreats (and considerably more direct methods as the times expose on Elaine Chao demonstrated).
We need to stop enabling the greatest threat to our way of life since the Soviet Union. Sadly, Friedman’s analysis of Trump’s incompetence at marshaling a global coalition to do just that is exactly correct.
19
@Adam
All good points.
Friedman repeated the obligatory US accusations lobbed against China: "... cyber theft of intellectual property, forced technology transfers, subsidies to Chinese companies, nonreciprocal trade rules, currency manipulation and barriers to China’s financial services markets, among other issues. ..." then presented a wishful proposal of chummy negotiation. Neither Chinese leaders nor Trump's China-haters would consider it.
By this point of the trade war, Trump have backed Xi into a corner that unless all of the usual accusations and tariffs against China are withdrawn and drop, there is not much to negotiate. Don't bet on a Trump-Xi meeting in June at the G20.
There is a well-known ancient Chinese saying that many so-called China pundits failed to study: "Much rather be shattered pieces of a treasured jade carving than an intact piece of clay roof tile." China would rather suffer short term hardship than to allow a repeat of "century of humiliation". Xi's "China Dream" is not an empty slogan like MAGA. The side that could not tolerate the pain must cry uncle first. It's not going to be China.
14
@Observer
Those "obligatory US accusations" happen to be all true.
It also happens to be true China is raping human rights on a scale that makes it morally reprehensible to enable them by doing business with them, even though Friedman doesn't seem to be too concerned about such things.
I'm not sure if Trump is going to be able to give China another "century of humiliation", but I can't fault him for trying. I have nothing against the Chinese people, but China needs to be opposed for as long as it remains a brutal communist dictatorship.
1
@Mike
Like it or not @Observer's observation is largely correct. Speaking as a Chinese who lived in both U.S. and Europe for almost 10 years. I can sure you this is a fight we would like to proceed. Your wording "China needs to be opposed for as long as it remains a brutal communist dictatorship" capture exactly the what we considered as self-righteousness. This we are superior because of democracy. Others are barbarians (not just China, anything non-western, or non-white) who needs to be obliterated. The more you oppose, the more you will unite Chinese to fight alongside Xi or whoever comes after.
I can't say who will win in the end. But it will be a long battle of attrition spin till the end of this century. So buckle up. We are ready to suffer. Are you?
2
@Mike
Well said.
U.S./China political, economic relations 2020?
I don't see relations between the U.S. and China as particularly secure. Ostensibly both nations are taken to be modern, to be more evolved than competition by war, are economic powerhouses, compete on a higher level than brute reality of war, but for all modernity, economic/technological advance, especially technology which reduces hard labor, facilitates work which historically required exertion of the body, both nations still pack their militaries with the young, proceed militarily as if no technological advance has occurred over history, which is to say today technology is so advanced there is little reason why it should be the young to bear the burden of war and not men between the ages of 30 and 55 (they can operate all the machinery of war, no?) but still both nations are heavily invested in brainwashing the young to join the military while the older men as usual make all the decisions and bear less of the burden which really should fall entirely to them now not least because they enjoy the perks of technological advance in so many other ways, never tire of telling us that especially technologically life is getting so much easier for everyone.
By all means try to form an intelligent trade relationship with China, strive for peace as well. And as ground of good intentions both nations pass laws that prevent people under thirty (except for special forces) fighting in the military, for after all it's easy push button war.
3
Overall a good column and the section describing how the PTT would work using the power of inclusion to change Chinese behavior excellent.
The difficulty is the premise of "false equivalence" that both countries are equally at fault. Trump has very much been the disruptive force and has shown little interest in negotiation or compromise. American bluster has been mobilized, not American argument and actions.
In 1918 two British representatives to the upcoming Paris Peace Conference to settle World War I were described as "The Heavenly Twins" and they were going to ensure that the Huns paid, or "squeeze them to their pips squeak." This is precisely the diplomatic method of Donald Trump and new American diplomacy of thuggery.
A more likely future trajectory is that China can play an indirect game and build up its relationships where it can, increase its trade where it can, and increase its influence where it can. It will over time substantially improve its position not least because so much of the rest of the world now views Trump's America with scorn and contempt. The paybacks will be in kind.
The US is marginalizing itself in the wider world. Globalization is not going to end, but ti will be a lot less American. Trade re-shapes the international economic topology fundamentally.
Starting in 1919 in Paris, the United Kingdom embarked on a century-long unraveling of its prosperity and wider influence. For the US, 2003 and the Iraq War was the start of the long decline.
10
@Paul A Myers
Paul, please, only the most blind Trump haters know who started the trade war - China. You're right about both countries not being equally at fault, but you totally whiffed on the second part of your thought.
Beijing are the bad guys here, not Trump.
No, a President like Senator Elizabeth Warren or Senator or Michael Bennet should attend one-week negotiation sessions, taking ordinary citizens from China and the U.S. to negotiate and not just corporate and oligarchic interests from either nation.
The Chinese have strayed miles from the revolutionary spirit of the Bolsheviks and have become a capitalist autocracy without human rights, civil rights, worker rights, privacy rights or true democracy. In the meantime, the U.S. has become a corrupt oligarchic, capitalist kleptocracy. Russia is like China but Putin has an even stronger grip on Russia than Xi Jinping does on Russia. I expect both nations and the U.S. are moving to revolution. The people of our nations are good people. It is those corrupted by power and the temptation of tyranny that pose the greatest threat to our environment, to the well being our children, to freedom and to sanity.
We need non-politicians to be the representatives of both of our nations. If it was my choice, AOC should be President. I guess she could still be VP?
2
Talking about reneging on a deal. A deal is not a deal before it is signed. The essence of negotiations is to go back and forth until something acceptable by both sides is reached. The Chinese negotiators do not have carte blanche. They need to bring whatever they have negotiated back to their bosses for approval.
What Trump has been doing is well and truly reneging on deals. The Paris Climate Accord. The Iran nuclear deal. All of these have been signed and he unilaterally tore them up. With this kind of track record, saying the Chinese reneged on a deal is a joke. All they did was to reject American demands. They never formally agreed on these terms. The deal was not finalised nor signed.
And Trump has shown that he will go back on his word after he has extracted whatever he wants from a deal. The latest Mexico tariff is a good case in point. Why would anyone want to negotiate any deal with him in good faith anyway ?
As for intellectual property theft, are you sure it does not happen with American companies ? And students and researchers taking IP with them ? US universities and companies have been poaching from their counterparts in the UK and Europe for decades. The television was invented in England, the jet engine in Germany. The computer mouse was conceived at the University of Edinburgh. Need I say more ?
29
@Adrian Good comments. The U.S. could have negotiated with China to try and solve certain areas of contention without going full nuclear and using trade tariffs and sanctions which will just hurt workers, consumers in different countries an slow down the world economy.
Trump is just a real estate developer with 5, 6 failed businesses behind him over the years, what does he understand about trade and commerce issues really (he probably doesn't want to try and understand these issues either)?
10
@Marc Faltheim
it is really a shortcoming of the western democratic system that one individual can do so much harm. This is what one past Australian Prime Minister termed as "elected dictatorship".
3
China and the US can’t simply get in a room and hash things out. China wants to supplant the US as the world’s main power and to rewrite the rules of geopolitics, world trade and real politik to lock in a Chinese advantage for a century to come. Couple that with a Chinese communist party that is constitutionally unable to compromise for fear of looking weak, and the hash-it-out-over-a-weekend approach can only lead the US to acquiescence to China’s goal to be the world’s top power. No thank you. I’d rather stop the Chinese freight train now, even if it is costly in the short term.
2
@Devil’s Advocate The problem with your thinking is in your last line. You/we will not "stop the Chinese freight train". They will not be nor can be stopped. Try stopping the wind. Trump thinks he can but cannot by using the blunt and damaging instruments he's using (and enjoys using). We need to be smarter with them. Trump is the dull tool in this fight and daily proves himself to be not smart.
The US and China do not misunderstand each other. Each understands the other’s position extremely well.
The problem is that there is fundamental disagreement on basic issues including the nature of state sovereignty(i.e. Human rights, government regulation of communications media), how government and capitalism relate to each other (i.e. government sponsorship of private enterprise), and views regarding the present rules based international order (i.e. who makes and enforces the rules). These disagreements are rooted in differences of historical experience, domestic culture, and core national values.
These differences are foundational and irreconcilable. They can no longer be managed with strategic ambiguity and obfuscation. We are going to have to agree to disagree and disengage accordingly.
Otherwise the tit for tat trade war will inevitably turn into an economic war and then into a kinetic war very likely involving nuclear weapons and with dire consequences.
2
The root of this conflict is that each side is asking for something impossible. Essentially both sides are demanding each other’s identity change. The US is the powerful eagle which has been dominating the world but now worrying about its relative decline. China is a soaring dragon which advocates Chinese dream after enduring humiliation given by the West and Japan. US is demanding China to change its identity as a dragon, which is impossible and it only adds anger and hostility.
I completely agree with Mr Friedman that now is the time for both leaders with big ego to get out of this identity fights and start thinking more about how to create better world for our grand children.
And Singapore is the best place for retreat because it is the most successful example created by merging Chinese and Western values and identities.
3
Mr. Friedman is in effect arguing that we should torture President Xi Jinping to achieve a trade deal with China. I can't say it would not work. I wouldn't wish a weekend with Trump on anyone.
17
Many thanks, Mr. Friedman, for a timely and insightful essay. I just wish that Trump's team has the best minds, sophistication in understanding history, and measured temper to tackle such a complicated and important issue. Trump initially thought that a trade war would be easy to win, and after failing, with misguided advice from Bannon, a couple of mediocre China experts and some hawks, appeared to be rushing into a full scale economic war or even a Cold War with China. I should have said that direct confrontation with China seems to be favored by many other intellectuals and politicians as well these days. Mr. Friedman asked an important question about the consequences, readiness and necessity of such a full scale confrontation. We are all frustrated and disappointed with the Chinese political situation and direction in the last 5-7 years, and we should take a more aggressive and assertive approach in dealing with current Chinese leadership on trade and human right issues. However, we should think about the long-term strategy and not to rush to a full scale confrontation with China without knowing where we are leading to. I trust that the current Chinese leadership is just an aberration to Chinese democratic process, although it may last for longer than what we would like to see.
1
Would you be so kind as to identify our allies? Our President has done a great job of alienating almost everyone of our past allies.
25
Mr. Friedman, at the moment our president could use a vacation, and a weekend retreat in Singapore with the leader of China might not be the answer to put the brakes on an escalating economic trade war.
It is a suggestion to be deliberated, however, but perhaps a conference screen discourse in this day and age, might be feasible and even better in addressing these dangerous and regrettable threats.
'There are different kinds of revolution' ventured a 95 year-old aunt of mine in a contrary and authoritarian frame of mind. WWI, The Great War to End all Wars, ended badly and in the trenches. If you belong to the Baby Boomer Generation, one that is fading out, it was nearly a given that we should be prepared for a nuclear war, and most likely, China would survive because of the weight of its population.
The President of China and the President of the U.S. might come to an agreement with the participation of a third leader acting as a neutral intermediary.
China does not have a history of being impetuous, and America is still a young nation. Another viable solution would be to vote for another president in office when we go to the polls, with a finer clarity of vision for the Future in 2020.
We are living exciting times, and these do not have to be destructive for all parties concerned.
4
We naively believed that letting China join the WTO would get them on a better path, however, they continue to take advantage of us. So why would the TPP make difference?
3
@James Because, as Thomas said, it would make the battle with China over unfair trade practices a multi-lateral battle. We would have more clout that way.
8
We need a new President first.
67
@David Heberling
And BTW, the new POTUS should never be Pence. This branch of capitalism cries out to be controlled, but not voted in by the clueless and motivated by the greedy.
As when Dr. Friedman assured readers the New Economy would soar to great heights or technology would raise income for thworking poor, this article is based on zero evidence.
Chinese people call their laws zhifa, pr "a per laws" because they only exist on paper, not in reality. Trade agreements and contracts mean nothing due to corruption. Xi Jinping has embezzled over one trillion through graft.
While the TPP was fantastic and tariffs are foolish, a retreat willnot address the deeply-roooted obstacles to equitable trade with China.
4
What difference would it make if Trump were to go on "a weekend retreat?" The taxpayers would just have more expenses than to fly him to New Jersey and whatever other expenses he can eat up. Why isn't doing his job just demanded and expected?
Is it because he is a "sitting" president, whatever that means?
Perhaps if he were actually impeached we wouldn't have to pay him the massive amounts of $700,000 per annum just to keep him quiet about his history of doing nothing.
5
The economic war was already started by China, more than two decades ago. The Chinese stole IP, critical designs, hardware, software, unrepentantly. Finally, we have a president who is doing something about their unfair practices. For all his faults, Trump deserves credit on this issue.
Not sure why Mr Friedman is so afraid of economic war with China, which is justified. He showed no such reluctance when it came to actual war with Iraq, which was not.
8
Unconventional: he doesn’t want war with China because first of the damage we would suffer and second of the damage to the global economy. Contrary to Trump’s words some trade wars are neither easy nor cheap to win and this would be one of them. Trump has already had to prop up farmers with $28 billion of our money while China has found other agricultural suppliers. And Xi cannot politically be seen making a “bad” deal for China or he can be forced out.
1
TPP. The biggest economic and strategic leverage that the US had over China was thrown into the trash by Trump. Now Trump is using tariffs which are paid by American importers and passed on to American consumers to force China to change its trade practices. How foolishly stupid!
8
@Paul
It might look like that if you don't look closer at what TPP really was about, but TPP was actually a horrible treaty that had to be stopped. It gave away US national sovereignty to corporations, giving corporations the right to revoke any legislation they don't like by claiming it "hinders trade".
TPP would thus have made an entity like Amazon able to usurp the lawmaking powers of congress, as soon as they think something congress does interferes with their profit-making. That would effectively have been the end of the US constitution.
You can't sacrifice the republic to save the republic, so no matter if TPP would have been helpful to confront China, it was still necessary to scrap it. Trump scrapped it the first thing he did when he became president, and this is one of the few things he has done that I agree wholeheartedly with.
As an American, you should be proud of your most admirable constitution, and defend it from those who seek to kill it with "death by a thousand cuts".
TPP was a slash at the constitution's jugular.
3
Weekend retreat? Why so Xi could watch him cheat at golf?
10
China makes Trump look like an honest broker, and that’s saying something.
4
Quite the opposite, actually .... and that is saying something.
1
I wouldn't trust Trump alone with anyone, let alone Xi, whether a masterful statesman/woman were present as an arbitrator or not.
Trump is incapable of a coherent conversation, and has already proven himself highly malleable under the influence of puppetmasters who play to his ego (Putin, Kim, and MBS come immediately to mind).
What good could possibly come of such a weekend retreat? Foolhardy at best, downright dangerous to American interests at worst.
34
For some reason, I am reminded that when the Situationists seized the Paris telegraph office in May ‘68, they fired off telegraphs to all the major capitals that read as follows:
SHAKE IN YOUR SHOES ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE. THE WORLD WON’T BE HAPPY UNTIL THE LAST CAPITALIST IS HANGED WITH THE GUTS OF THE LAST BUREAUCRAT.
More or less, anyway. Can’t imagine why I thought of that just now.
1
The Chinese are not interested in win-win. They play a zero-sum game. They regard any concession as an extension of the national humiliation that afflicts them so badly because they believe their cultural and political system should rule the world. I fear they are not too different from North Korea, just quieter and more sophisticated. Do we really want the Chinese to set the standards for the world? Do we want them to gain enough power to censor anything negative about them anywhere in the world by anyone from any nation? Do we want them to weaken our technology and military abilities by denying us rare earth metals now that we have stupidly let them develop a monopoly on those? Would we have wanted to do anything to strengthen Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan? Of course not. With China we have let them get away with too much for too long. Yes, the TPP might have been a good idea but it came along at a bad time plus our press corps complained that they could not get ANY information about the contents of the TPP negotiations, so of course we distrusted it.
Unfortunately the Chinese have chosen this game and want to play it this way. President Trump put the tariffs in place apparently because the Chinese wanted last minute changes to a nearly-complete trade agreement. The Chinese love to talk and stall, talk and stall, all the while building their strength at the expense of others. Trump was right to call their bluff. We might have to separate from the Chinese.
10
Tom is more than a little naive with respect to China. Oh Tom, how quickly you forget, “political power comes from the barrel on a gun”, not from the barrel of golf club.
4
@norm: sadly Trump also only thinks of “winning” negotiations so cannot realize that he cannot expect any results that, at the very least, allow the Chinese to save face. My prediction is, if he is “negotiating” there will not be a constructive settlement. Hope I’m wrong but....
2
When it comes to dealing with China the usual principles of bilateralism or multiliteralism don't seem to matter, because we don't really know what the goal of the 'long march' is - hegemony, subjugation, domination or ....?
The play book China follows is very different, 'no' is not an obstacle for them, but an opportunity to do it themselves - so if the world denies them resources, they will simply go and take it or build it themselves; if warfare will make them outcasts, they will simply show an economic carrot that will later be converted to economic stranglehold ... Sri Lanka in the Belt and Road initiative is an exemplar; if another country takes a lead in technology, they simply use their scale to replicate it at a far lower cost - the entire digital eco-system of China exemplifies this.
As has been known for some time now, China plays the long game, while the rest of the world's game is restricted by the term limits of its leaders. Unless, the world is able to devise a strategy that is asymmetric to China's thinking, China will continue unchecked on the road to whatever its goal is.
Just think, Mao launched the revolution to make China a 'worker's paradise'. Today, less than 70 years after that China is anything but a 'worker's paradise' as numerous episodes of the mistreatment of China's workers have shown. Yet the large swathesof Chinese people seem to be content with their lot, without exhibiting the overt disgruntlement of similar workers elsewhere.
4
This would be a great idea if the US President never returned.
5
Wow, Mr. Friedman. You managed to call Trump's ripping up the TPP "water under the bridge" and minimize the totalitarian abuses the Chinese are inflicting on their Muslim population, all in the same essay. I never took you for someone who would sweep such monumentally destructive behavior under the rug. Peace and prosperity are important, but cannot be the only goal for the United States of America I love. What about Liberty, Freedom and the Rule of Law?
21
@Pluribus
Rule of law you mentioned in the same breathe in order to arrive at the horrors committed by China. Both the rule of law needs to be upheld and the Chinese anti-Muslim policies are varieties of bad behaviors which have similar morality, depending upon who is looking at it or evaluating the same. Neither is desirable or acceptable, but both coexist. DJT & his enablers need to stop lying, obey American law, understand that liberty and freedom are preserved when the rule of law is followed. Remember two wrongs never equal one right.
Monday morning quarterbacking again Mr Friedman. No other president has addressed the Chinese Problem. Biden arguably exacerbated it. Either the Chinese start to play well with others or they lose business and we buy elsewhere or, heaven forbid, we buy American.
Just think of how much president Trump could have accomplished at the negotiating table had his counterparts not been told he was on the verge of being hung for treason for the last few years.
3
@Sddoc: I didn’t realize there had been a President Biden!
Indeed American businesses can look elsewhere, but this cannot happen overnight.
Finding manufacturers with the capacity to expand radically means often waiting for new plants to be built and tooled up and trial periods. And new markets for our allies industries which have lost the Chinese market.
And since Trump is a one-trick pony in negotiations, something other countries have worked on. He has failed any negotiations with the EU, NKorea found all you need to do is flatter his ego while not actually giving up anything of value likewise with China.
From January 2017 he has often acted in a manner consistent with not acting in the West’s interests, slagging those who would have been valuable allies, while happily consorting with tyrants, especially Mr Putin, definitely a man who does not have our welfare in mind. He now is willing to destroy the one multilateral treaty he has engineered NAFTA 2.0 ( and from what I understand it scarcely merits being called “new”) with his threatened tariffs on Mexico .
Sir, hung for treason? No. But being a lawbreaker, out for his own profits over the National interest, with a level of venality and corruption never before seen in a President, worthy of dismissal through Impeachment was there a principled Republican Party, yes sir that he has earned.
1
LOL, funny suggestion!
The result of the weekend retreat would be simple. 3 days after the Presidents come to an agreement at the retreat, Trump would promptly and punctually renege on it.
After all the double-crossing, deal-breaking and fake-news making the Americans have done, trusting an American president.... THIS American president, should be the last thing the Chinese ever do.
No, China should just fight the trade war, decouple from the United States economy and go its own way. Split the world into half if it has to. There is nothing wrong with and no shame in pursuing self-reliance. When you put the fate and future of your technology and economy in the hands of a hostile, terrorist, warmongering power like the United States, you are imperiling your people and your country.
China also has many friends. I am actively taking part in the trade war and reducing the number of American products I use in my daily life. My family and friends are starting to see my view and acting accordingly; a reduction here, and replacement there, with a view to switching to non-American substitutes. Process may be slow, but it is fine as long as it is permanent.
Americans have held the world hostage with their whims, double standards, terrorist inclinations and fake news for decades. It is time the world stood up to them and contain them. I am proud that China is leading the way and taking a stand.
5
Friedman holds out hope that China can and will eventually play fair if not pressured too aggressively. Millions of Americans similarly shared a hope that the totally inexperienced— if not totally unqualified—candidate Trump could and would grow into his job.
The horrendous results are crystal clear—hope is not a strategy. There will be no miraculous U-turns. We have an equally unlikely prospect that either Trump or the Chinese leaders will mend any of their destructive ways. Place your bets, but buckle up. Bloated, overprotected egos are not guided by the welfare of others—Trump because he is constitutionally incapable of empathy, and the Chinese chairman for life because he really doesn’t have to be. The whistles are getting louder. The trains are picking up speed. Happy endings? Rewatch Frozen.
17
If Mr. Friedman really thinks the issue is about trade, maybe he should take a long vacation and think about geopolitics and irreconcilable differences. Just think, had Hitler and Stalin taken a cabin for two the Second World War might not have happened. Lol.
Davos Man considers only short run issues concerning trade and finance. Serious political leaders consider long term national security. China ignores 'the rules of the game' because of the belief that these have been established by, and serve the interest of, the United States. Once in a position to establish the rules, China will obey them and complain when the US does not.
The Middle Kingdom hopes to re-establish its dominance over East Asia, the most important economic region of the 21st century. With economic dominance, by extension, global geopolitical dominance will follow. Just ask the US.
Neither Trump nor Xi have the interest or the ability to manage a peaceful solution to the Thucydides Trap. Global warming is a future danger, but nuclear war is a clear and present one.
Think about it when you cast your ballot in 16 months.
11
Zeros... all I see and feel is a lose lose situation if this situation keeps escalating. Yesterday over $130 billion vabished from FANG stocks (as per market value). That was just one day, even after a very painful May. Are we winning this war? Hmmm We have very smart people on both sides, they owe us and everyone the obligation to sit and try as much as possible to find a solution.
This is not a zero sum game, and sometimes is better a bad deal than no deal at all. Otherwise we will all pay the consequences.
The Chinese just need to stop buying our debt to show us who is boss. It would be good to remember this weapon at their disposal.
6
Unfortunately Trump has found this new weapon "tariff" that he thinks will whip into shape all those countries that offend him. He's unhappy with Mexico because he perceived they weren't doing enough to mitigate the illegal immigrants coming across the border. So a 5% taroff.
As far as China goes, whose going to stop Trump from imposing additional tariffs, Congress. Ha! The cats out of the bag and he's running loose, and no on is willing to corral him.
4
Xi as no time to play with a kid...
3
The ‘extremely stable genius’ * meets with Mao 2.0? What could possibly go wrong?
* The Dunning-Kruger effect is also known as the “too stupid to know they’re stupid” problem; it “concerns how low-ability subjects are often unable to recognize their own ineptitude”. - P. 51, “Post-Truth” by Lee McIntyre, MIT Press (2018).
12
@Charles D. I think Trump is smart enough to know he is stupid. That is part of his problem. Scared of being found out.
I am tempted to go into a Matt Taibbi analysis of this Friedman column, but I won't. Instead I'll point out the most obvious missing ingredient from this column: discussion of human rights. Like Kristof over the weekend, China here is treated as a great benefactor of its people––when it is actually a totalitarian government.
10
@David
Right on!
3
@David
I always wonder why a Chinese communist, working in the fields, tolerates communist billionaires? How long can that last? Straight out of Animal Farm.
@David human rights? Gitmo. Abu Grab.
Mr. Friedman, for a smart man, you are still choosing willful ignorance over reality. Trump and his advisors are not only vain and stubborn men, but they are beyond stupid regarding China, it's history, culture, and economic aims - AND they are proud of that. You CANNOT change Trump's mind just like you cannot force him to read, learn, or act in the interest of all Americans and not merely his own personal wealth. The best result of this "war" that Trump started and insists on prolonging, is for us to lose - bigly - and then we get rid of Trump next year and restart dealing with the world. Making believe that Trump can be transformed into a
rational actor is a waste of time that will fail - no matter how many times you try it.
14
"Trump put the Chinese telecom giant Huawei on a list of companies that need special permission to buy U.S.-made microchips, software and other components. The reasons were Huawei’s long history of reported stealing of intellectual property and the fear that if our allies bought Huawei’s 5G telecommunication system it would open them and us to much greater Chinese espionage. China retaliated with an edict to strike back at any foreign company that boycotts Huawei."
"And they have to explore whether there is an alternative to just banning companies like Huawei, such as fining or suspending them for abuses, while giving them a clear road map back into our markets if they demonstrate that they’ve cleaned up their act."
I do not think that a fine would have much impact and "suspend" seems like "ban" to me.
Much of what Mr. Friedman suggests is that the US give in to China in the game of "chicken" or take cosmetic steps for the record, which will have no effect, so everybody can go back to the way things were.
"Our goal should be to move China toward global best practices on all these issues, not to isolate it and create a bifurcated world economy, internet and technology market."
Mr. Friedman seems to relate to China as a student willing willing to be educated by the master if the master would act like one. Mr. Friedman has missed the boat. Too late. "Move" or "push", China has its own agenda.
4
@Joshua Schwartz
When Friedman says
"Our goal should be to move China toward global best practices on all these issues, not to isolate it and create a bifurcated world economy, internet and technology market."
he misses that isolating China and creating a bifurcated world economy, internet and technology market is the only way we can apply pressure on China to "move it towards best practices".
Well, that, or nukes. Trade war doesn't sound so bad when you consider the alternative...
1
Thank you for capturing the backgrounds that America and the democratic world is facing vis vis China. The greatest blunder was created by Bill Clinton to allow the China to be part of WTO. The history of communist party of the world and the Chinese culture remained a mystery to the mandarins of the State Department on that decision. The Chinese friend of Friedman made the true statement - “ we are too powerful now”. On PPP basis, China is the number one economy of the world. Today China is too strong and America is friendless in the world - there is no match. Trump may play high rhetoric- actions will not support the strength. It is a Sputnik moment but we have a very weak President at WH. Ultimately Trump will back down and surrender to Xi, a humiliating retreat of American economic leadership in the world.
4
@Kalyan Basu
I think you are overestimating China's strength - and underestimating Trump's!
China is dependent on strong economic growth to keep its unruly masses from rebelling. And their economic growth depends on exports, to a large extent to the US. A large scale economic disruption is very dangerous to the Chinese rulers, and Trump may just be able to deliver that.
The real reason China decided to scrap the trade deal Trump had negotiated with them, is because they too think Trump is weak at home, and they hope he will soon be replaced by Biden (who as it happens has a history of making shady deals with the Chinese).
But that's where both you and the Chinese may be judging the situation wrong! The fact democrats are screaming for Trump's impeachment doesn't mean they'll get it. It takes a super majority in the Senate to remove Trump, and that is very unlikely to happen. Democrats surely realize this, so it's likely they only push the impeachment in an effort to smear Trump with controversy so they can oust him in 2020.
But that is by no means a sure thing either! Trump is enjoying unprecedented support among republican voters, and even a relentless media campaign against him has failed to make a dent in his popularity.
Trump will not back down and surrender, because love him or hate him, that's just not in his grandiose character! And he is very likely to remain president until 2024 regardless of what his political enemies try to do about it.
China doesn't have to sell us stuff and they don't have to buy our stuff. They can sell their stuff to the rest of the world and likewise import what they need from other suppliers.
China is making huge inroads into the developing world. They have established a large footprint in Africa. They are moving into Pakistan. India is next door, if they aren't there already.
South America, Russia and the Ukraine can provide all the grain China needs. Wheat farms can be switched over to soybeans if that is what China wants to feed their hogs.
Currently, American soybean farmers are being hit with a trifecta of problems. 1) They are being flooded out. They can't get their Trump bailout if they can't get their soybeans planted. 2) Swine fever has killed so many Chinese hogs that global demand for soybeans is dropping, putting downward pressure on the price. 3) Trump's trade war is killing them.
Add all three together and we should see a lot of farms go belly up within a year.
China has a centrally run economy. They tell their people what is going to happen, not the markets. The people don't get to vote out the leader. This is a communist nation run by the communist party. Trump can't pressure them anywhere near as much as he thinks. Were we able to pressure Castro out of office?
Trump's trade war will reorient global supply chains and permanently. Those chains will be rerouted around the US and China will still be China. And US farmers will lose their farms.
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@Bruce Rozenblit
i don't think any other country would replace USA as a huge market in the short time. so you could be more optimistic about US farmer's future :)
there should be some negotiation and compromise,but the problem now is neither of China and USA could trust each other after one year's bargaining,quarreling without any deal.
now both Xi and Trump are waiting, waiting to see who afford the risk of not making a deal,waiting to see who would propose to get back to table first.
@Mike
You may not get it. When American production is negatively effected, jobs begin to disappear. As jobs disappear, the value of the American dollar will slide downward. When the American dollar value declines, the consumers will begin to eliminate certain items which do not keep them alive.
You won't see it in Unemployment figures, because once the 6 months of unemployment is completed and you haven't landed a new job, they are no longer counted.
You won't see it in stock market trends or numbers because, what is American which you might invest within have declined because Americans cannot afford to purchase the products that might be purchased. That's the real domino effect of the DJT approach to the eventual bankruptcy of America. Remember it seems to me that he promised the same while running for POTUS.
2
@Mike
My bet? Xi has a lot more patience than Trump.
China has nothing - nothing - to lose.
Trump has an election to lose.
2
In the past, America lead, benefited and helped the world, but nowadays under Trump administration, America is fighting with all the world,just to benefit from the world. Trump keeps using tariff as tool to threaten China ,Mexico,Japan,Europe,Canada,...everywhere.
2
Every time I read you I am amazed at either your ignorance or weakness. I also can't help but wonder if you have ever actually negotiated anything of significance. First and foremost, if you are engaged in negotiations and take a zero sum approach (Trump's style as opposed to the win-win-win camp) you do not approach others for help. Rather, you keep the position of strength and accept when others join your side. Every country that signed the ridiculous TPP could publicly tell the President they want to join him in fighting China's actions. Such action would make Trump appear stronger to China and play to his ego. Similarly, the outdated EU could offer to help Trump against China since we are essentially paying for their defense. Instead the socialists of Europe keep helping the countries they complain about by buying their goods.
America as the lone superpower and strongest economy would fare better in each trade deal if they are binary since we always have the power advantage. Citizens of the world may not understand or seek to advance America's interests first, but our President should always put America first.
1
@Matthew
Oh yes, Chairman Trump really has it under control. He will get a great deal with China, just as he has with N.K. nukes. In your dreams.
3
Unfortunately the Prez does not understand that China will not do what the US wants and when it wants. It was very convenient for us to buy chinese low tech products for almost free- I did not hear too many people including our esteemed Tom Friedman protesting at that time. Now that they intend to stop being a US sweatshop and sell more high tech high priced products it seems to be very inconvenient for us; we have forgotten that that is exactly the cycle that we in the US went through ourselves. I fear that they have more staying power than the US public and might in fact end up winning the trade war.
11
"It may be that China’s government simply cannot or has no desire to change its growth model — hard work, smart infrastructure and education investments, a high savings rate, plus lots of unfair trade practices — because it would mean the end of Communist Party rule."
Hopelessly naive thinking like this is what got us into this mess. I'm sorry, but after Tienanmen Square, why on Earth would anyone think the CCP would want to voluntarily give up power? Also, if their growth model is working, why would they want to change it? Since Western leaders have been willing to sell out their own people, why should China not have taken advantage of the situation? They have hundreds of millions of people still to lift out of poverty. Should it be a surprise that they're willing to engage in unethical behavior to put their own people first?
4
In a one on one negotiation as instigated by the US you might be right. But if the US, all of the pacific countries and Europe start a combined negotiation, I am sure Beijing is willing to change course fundamentally.
1
@HPE Trump gathering a global coalition? I would have a better chance of accomplishing that myself.
14
A leader's retreat won't solve the trade problem. President Trump is fighting a global tariff war. He uses tariffs to negotiate with China. He adds tariffs on goods and material from other countries such as Mexico, Canada, and many others. In essence, he is collecting money from the rest of the world whenever he can. After so much dispute, I don't think he has that much more charm left to please the opposite leaders.
1
@Usok just for the record Trump, with his tariffs, is collecting money from the US citizens,it is a tax!
2
Trump isn’t collecting money from the rest of the world, he is collecting it from American consumers.
2
How in the world would a weekend retreat work? How has any negotiation worked for Donald Trump, in either business or the White House, it hasn’t.
How can we even go into a negotiation when it requires a strategy, a strategy for the long term, and a strategy that is in America’s best interest.
The fact that the solution suggested to American businesses is to switch their suppliers to other says it all; how does that help American businesses.
The solutions to this tariff only strategy:
- subsidizing capital investments in businesses to bring key machinery back. You cannot make investments in the US without such subsidies, which then brings us to corporate welfare.
- building new in-house / American consumption businesses like alternative energy manufacturing, electric car parts & batteries,
- rare earth metals need to come back. I remember reading how we shipped these to China, which was nuts. Once again corporate welfare to subsidize.
Let’s face it, globalization has consequences and costs.
2
I mostly agree with Mr. Friedman this week (a rarity) but for the scale of the risk. China's total trade volume with the US is 2% or less of US GDP - it's just not that huge. US buyers importing from China also have an advantage - they can shift sourcing to other countries. Taiwan, Malaysia, India, Vietnam and more would all be pleased to become bigger parts of the supply chain to the US. Ditto for countries on other continents.
China however cannot easily shift its prodigious output to another nation as wealthy as the US. Mr. Friedman notes that China is one of the two biggest economies on the globe but they also have well over a billion people. Their GDP per capita is only one sixth of the US.
As much as some might try to make this a comparison of equals, the Chinese unfortunately are heavily outmatched. The best solution is to get most of the changes we want while still letting China save face & pride. They remember well the humiliation of the Opium Wars and WW-II. The Chinese are loathe to be humiliated again.
11
@Once From Rome this comment leads me to believe that you have an M.B.A. or J.D. like I do. You are right on both the facts and the suggested actions. The power dynamic favors us so we must get more than the other side, but if we seek 100% there will be no deal.
5
@Matthew No MBA or JD - my one career regret was not becoming an attorney. I would have enjoyed it but I I didn't see how I could possibly pay for it in 1986.
Instead, a BSME, PE license and 14 years in engineering followed by 20 years in finance with my CFP(R). Three of my engineering career years were large dollar capex projects and six years were in product R&D and high level tech support to Asia - I've dealt with the Chinese often enough.
I like history too and China's history is something to understand here. Before the Opium Wars, they were probably the world's leading economic power. The British ended that. Japan tortured them in WW-II. Their leaders know this history and they don't want to repeat it. Having never lost a war to a foreign invader on our soil, Americans do not really understand or appreciate this.
4
Nice thought experiment. But in the real world Don would renege a week later. And deny that he had made the agreement.
84
I think that Obama would pass the batan to me if I were electable.
I'm not electable. Am I?
Nobody knows the future.
A weekend retreat? This is unserious.
10
@Chris RasmussenTen minutes with Trump would ten minutes too many. A weekend would be a crapshoot at most.
In all areas, China is moving towards self sufficiency - www.nzherald.co.nz headline says that A2 milk stocks slumped 10% since the comment. China has said it plans to move to 60% self sufficiency in milk production instead of being 40% self sufficient in milk production.
Seems their goal as a nation is not to rely on global Democracies etc for imports.
I wonder what other comment yet to be made by the Chinese will send the USA sharemarkets into a spin. Keep an eye on what the Chinese government is getting out of in the sharemarket!
@CK
China will never be self sufficient in the life times of those alive today and those yet to be born.
China's population is 1.418 billion and has arable land sufficient to feed half of that number.
8
@teoc2
And that arable soil is diminished contaminated with toxins from all kinds of industrial waste and overuse of pesticides. The air and water are fouled; livestock are diseased and plants are contaminated with heavy metals. Freshwater fish is an oxymoron. The Chinese do not trust the food in their grocery stores and are afraid to feed their dogs dog food. Other countries reject imports from China because of too much antibiotics or pesticides permeating the stuff. I do not want anything from China and I refuse to prop up the CCP. I will pay more for something far better from democratic Taiwan, the other China.
4
For starters the US and Chinese presidents should pick up the phone and talk or chat on skype. Free and fair trade should be mutually beneficial.
1
"And more important, this approach makes the conflict all about America versus China on trade, when this should be about the world versus China on trade."
--------------------
If Trump wasn't by far the most incompetent and ignorant president this country has ever had, he would have built a coalition before starting his trade war. Instead he has started or threatened more trade wars against Mexico, Canada, Japan, the European Union, etc.
There was another demagogue in the 1930's who thought that his country alone could defeat the entire world. Despite some initial success, things didn't end up so well for him...
36
Well, I think Xi has outlawed golf, so that’s out.
7
@Charles D.
They could play cricket.
Unfortunately, with Trump, his facilitators, and GOP collaborators, you are not dealing with rational human beings but people who have been bought and sold in Russia's (and Putin's) long-game revenge for the end of communism.
9
We don't need a full account of the degredation of talks to understand what is happening here. Thanks for contributing to our logs of reality, but let's get real.
China has spyed on almost every major US corporation. I'm sure I ran into one of these spies. They're good poeple, but they have bad programming. They're smart!
How does US democracy stand up to that? If the president doesn't push the Bill of Rights to other nations, we retreat.
We're in trouble. World dictators are making a fool of Trump. He doesn't even see it. He doesn't get it. When Salmon and Putin shook hands, it was a victory shake against the US constitution.
Can we fight back and get our position back? I don't know.
We should be much smarter than we've been.
Trump doesn't do everything wrong. He is in favor of removing Maduro, and I back it. This chump has no ideology but fear and corruption.
I have to write out my ideas, because I can see most people won't accept them easily.
Motivation: waking up to a reocurring nightmare.
4
Trump should have signed this ... Trump should have done that ... said this ... thought about how ... worked with ... instead of ...
As if the emotionally unstable Trump has the discipline and self-awareness to be anything other than who he is and always has been: A slave to his ego incapable of executing any strategy because he is only concerned with immediate personal gratification, how an action makes him feel in the moment.
Mr. Friedman, 865 days into this administration and you still insist on treating Trump like a normal President with normal goals and the ability to make reasoned decisions?
Trump no more has a coherent trade "strategy" than a petulant toddler with a hammer has an architectural vision.
Trump just likes to break things and make a lot of noise. Tariffs are his hammer and he is going to keep breaking things until the adults take it away from him.
A "weekend retreat" would not fix a thing. A time-out might help though.
183
@LT Exactly!
4
@LT - you nailed it (pun intended 0.
3
@LT
Time to get out my trump baby balloon.
2
And that retreat should be somewhere in Mexico.
10
''Our goal should be to move China toward global best practices...'' - No. Our goal should be to demand human rights, freedoms and Democracy be inherent to every single citizen on this planet.
I know, I know, perhaps that is asking too much. We do need our cheap phones, clothing and the like.
However, it is not the trade policy negotiators on any side that have the power. The true power lays in you, and your pocketbook/spending habits. All you have to do is support your local economy, businesses and jobs, by buying local where you can.
I know there are many things that are no longer made in the west, but there are still many, many things where it can make a difference.
The fight can be hard won or hard yuan.
22
@FunkyIrishman
My son buys tools for his trade , he repairs and installs electronic devices for pleasure boats. When buying a tool , he always searches for US made but often has to purchase foreign. Second choice is Euro, followed by Japan, then China . Euro is most expensive, then Japan , then US , then China. He says that he sees some positive movement by US mfgs. to counter the China grip with their currency/pricing advantage. The quality from China is improving as their pricing is increasing.
4
@Steve
True. It seems to be a chicken and egg thing, whereas the price comes down when purchasing agents place large orders, so that the costs all around can remain competitive.
Those purchasing agents for the box stores, are just going for the lowest price, and not necessarily the best quality.
1
@FunkyIrishman
yes ,it lays in you but not your pocketbook/spending habits, it lays in your hands/job preference. all you have to do is support your local economy...... by working in a cloth factory, toy assemble factory, plastic moulding factory, rare earth mines. ..etc and more than 12 hours one day ,28 days a month, earning low wage in order to compete with not only MADE in China ,but also with Made in Vietnam, Made in Cambodia.... How many American people would like to do so? I really wondered
People insisting on "Made in USA" just forget they fail to replace "Made in Japan" , and now again they want to follow the same by wrong way.