Colombia’s Peace Deal Promised a New Era. So Why Are These Rebels Rearming?

Deja vu all over again. Colombian rebels keep learning harsh lessons about amnesty. I recall the political opening of the 1980's, when Colombian rebels were given a political opening to run for office. Many of them won mayoral and legislative victories under the newly formed "Union Patriotic" or UP party. And then, every week, we would hear of another mayor or legislator shot down like a sitting duck by a death squad. Surrendering to the peace process in Colombia is like putting a target on your head.

The new Colombian ' leader' acts and sounds like a Donald Trump- ignorant, immoral, incomperent,intemperate and insecure- appealing to the worst demons of human nature by breaking deals and promises. Sowing the wind he will reap the whirlwind. Peace deals are not made to be broken except by demagogues and tyrants bent on mayhem on behalf of their personal and family interests.

It seems when small minded, insecure, paranoid, conservative leaders come into power they want to control everything. Like trump and his crony administration they renege on promises and want to roll the clock back on laws that were enacted years ago, in this case the Colombia president wants to do that while here in our country rolling back laws like the right for a women to manage their bodies and not have abortions.

Absent from your article is the addictive nature of killing. The sense of power derived from killing another human being is demonstrably controlling in the brain. Yes, the Colombians have grievances, but the instinct to return to the gun, is self defeating to having those grievances resolved. But is is invigorating to feed the need to kill. I'm reminded of the words of that Old West philosopher William Munny "It's a hell of a thing, killing a man. You take away all he's got and all he's ever gonna have."

Former Santos’s administration rushed to sign a peace agreement before he left, but little was accomplished beyond the paperwork. First, commitments were not matched with money, and the agreement was left grossly underfunded. President Duque is facing strong fiscal pressure, he even had to relax the fiscal rule. Second, the government didn’t occupy immediately the areas vacated by FARC, and ELN, other rebel group, took advantage. And third, while narcotics remain illegal in USA and other big markets, no other crop can beat the profitability of coca, which is no news to Colombia, Mexico and Central America.

It is odd that this is an article written about a government that did not fulfill its promise. However almost left unmentioned is how this peace deal was signed and celebrated with international dignitaries BEFORE it was approved by a national referendum. Alas, a week later it was NOT APPROVED by the people of Colombia in a national vote. What did Mr. Santos do? He side stepped the will of the people and sent it to congress for approval anyway. The real tragedy is not unfulfilled promises of the Colombian government it is that the Colombian people are being held to account by foreign journalist for something the international community approved but NOT the people of Colombia.

I live part of the year in Bogota where I have just arrived. None of these conflicts are apparent here on the streets of Bogota- except bomb sniffing K-9 at allparking and many entrances to buildings. But a few conversations with folks in Bogota who are middle class and educated - FARC treaty is hardly popular. Most resent that none had to pay for their crimes and many are offended that they were guaranteed seats in the Congress. Time will tell what happens next. But at least in Bogota, there have been more protest marches against government over economy than FARC issues. For sake of Colombia - I hope this issue gets settled. But the lure of easy drug money to many poor folks does not lend much support to that hope.

The people rejected the deal in a referendum. That's called populism, another word for democracy. Unless, of course, politics goes against the liberal agenda. Then the mainstream media calls it far-right-wing something or other. Actually, Columbians rejected the ultra-left-wing violent FARC getting off virtually scot-free for years of murder. In the end, most would agree that violence solves nothing for either side. Unless one believes that increasing the tension between sides helps move forward the revolution, a la Marxism. But that has failed time and again.

So, it sounds like the fighting is over land and money, and the central issue of who gets their fair share of each — which suggests, with the experience of all human history, regarding popular democracy vs. Empire, that the older asset class of ‘Land’ and ‘Land-Reform’, along now in the modern capitalist world of ‘Capital’ and ‘Capital Reform’ might be a very smart place to start looking for peace in Colombia and in the District of Columbia, eh?

It’s all about money and power. Accept what the rebels want and peace prevails.

For just day I’d love to read the world news of the day without any people on it. I’m sure monkeys can be taught to crank a printing press, or for sure push the start button on an automated one. All these problems seem to stem from just one source.

It would have been wise for the US to do everything in its power to make this peace deal work, including funding for projects and logistical support/advice to make meaningful progress.

What's even crazier is the amount of Narco money fueling all of the Andean region. All construction/development in Ecuador and Colombia is fueled by Narco money. Washing it. I know, you might say ''that's a blanket statement.'' It is and It is. The Colombian government benefits directly and indirectly from Narco cash. Ecuador is perfect because it uses the US Dollar. The rebels are just getting the short end of stick, small piece of pie and they want to renovate their take. I get it. Picture a labor union dispute - without the air filled rats, more ak-47. Regardless, Cocoa production - imo--is just the way the Colombian government can now say, "What? Oh no. They're starting that back up again? Our incentives didn't work?" Funny. Yet, not funny. And, the US buys all that cocaine up. More than Quinoa and Coffee. SMH.

"When the peace deal was signed, the estimate was that it would cost about $45 billion to fulfill all the promises over a period of at least 15 years. At the time, the government enjoyed revenue from a state oil company whose output was going for almost $100 a barrel. Now, prices are a third lower." How striking that in this article, the sharp drop in the price of oil is noted as a significant reason the Colombian government failed to provide aid to the rural poor. But in countless articles (including in today's NYT) on neighboring Venezuela--whose economy was even more dependent on oil--this is NEVER mentioned as a cause of the economic crisis. And when did the price of oil drop by one third? In 2014, which happens to be when Venezuela's current economic crisis began. (This is not to mention the role of U.S. sanctions, which is also GREATLY downplayed in NYT coverage.) What could explain this marked discrepancy in analysis? Could it be that the U.S. is trying to overthrow Maduro, but strongly supports the gov't of Colombia?

With the exception of Afghanistan, it seems no country in the world has been as negatively affected by America’s ‘war on drugs’ as Colombia. The false moralists who perpetrate the war on drugs in the US and Colombia are as responsible for the violence in Colombia as the cartels and militias. Legalize it and channel money to treatment, just like successive public health and criminal reform commissions have said for decades!

There was an election. The guy who won it was always opposed to the peace deal, and ran on opposing the peace deal. It is like asking why Trump pulled out of the Iran deal. How and why did he win? He had major backing. There was big money in defeating the peace deal. A lot of that money was US money, called Plan Colombia. What does the US get out of defeating the peace deal? It isn't about drugs. War is paid for by drugs. Peace would have opened up those areas and reduced the drugs. Drugs are worse now because the peace is being betrayed quite deliberately by those controlling the government. It is about the US role in the Colombian military and on bases in Colombia. It is the American beachhead in South America. They are a major "Lily Pad" to use Rumsfeld's term for nascent US bases, preparations for a move in on short notice. If the US moves against Venezuela for example, the Plan Colombia basing scheme will surge to the fore. Other than that, the US is too far out to do anything against Venezuela. Brazil certainly was not going to help, at least until its very recent right wing loon was elected -- now maybe, but uncertain. But the US has Colombia. The US had other bases in the region, and lost them. The US moved strongly to defend its influence in Colombia, after losing full access to its bases in Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia. Brazil under Lula and Dilma was hostile to US bases. Drugs have been an excuse. If the US priority was drugs, it would have done the opposite.

It is important to speak about the continuous work of right-wing politicians against the implementation of the peace accords as well as the denial of some FARC leaders to appear before the court of transitional justice.

I think it needs to be mentioned that the current fiscal deficit creates a major hurdle that compromises the Colombian Government’s ability to fulfil their part of the peace accords. That deficit is caused by 1) an increase of public spending (due in part to an ambitious but necessary infrastructure upgrade plan, to the cost of the implementation of the peace accords, and to an unexpected influx of 1.2M migrants who need public assistance) and 2) a decrease of government revenue (due in part to a drop in the prices of oil, coffee and other commodities). This situation leaves the Government with little room for manoeuvre. On the one hand, it forces them to be severely austere, which causes major friction with some sectors such as transporters and teachers. On the other hand it gives them an incentive to increase the tax burden on businesses and private citizens. Considering the economic outlook, it is unfortunately logical that the current government gives low priority to funding the programs required to maintain the peace accords. Especially, due to the Duque administration being ideologically opposed to the very notion of a peace process with FARC. The combination of economic and political factors explains the current fragile state of the peace process in Colombia. One can hope that a more favorable macroeconomic scenario would help Colombia closing that front of its internal conflict.

Thanks for covering but missing a critical aspect of the peace treaty breeches which is the over 130 community leaders and ex combatants killed by para militaries. This mirrors the massacres of the union patriótica. Cycles of violence continue:/

The American leadership vacuum has all but ensured the return of central and south American proxy wars, with unsolved grievances egged on and likely financed by Russia again. That's going to be a tragic and very costly clean-up. Again.

I love the reporting. Good Job!

We might expect similar headlines in the future about Venezuela if US government and media elites successfully orchestrate coup d’etat in favor of a self-serving and predatory regime serving transnational capital at the grave expense of Venezuelan commonwealth.

We need more reporting like this. Follow through with stories, discuss issues. The only addition I would have is an analysis on how the provisions in the peace deal could be accomplished - are they realistic? Is the government dragging its feet or is it simply a difficult job that will take longer than they thought it would? Were the promises made reasonable or overly optimistic?

What I can’t quite figure out is how a nation of law and order (that would be US) can possibly consume so much cocaine, on a steady, yearly basis, for the past half a century, and still pretend that we’re not orchestrating the whole operation. Cocaine used to be administered over-the-counter, at local pharmacies. “Enjoy Coke!”

Yep, loads of coverage of Venezuela in chaos (and of course U.S. sanctions have nothing to do with it) and how Bernie can be tainted with the Red scare, and finally the paper of record gets around to Colombia, which is Venezuela's fate should John Bolton have his way. Not mentioned: killings of environmental activists.

A good piece, but it underplays the extent to which President Duque--hand-picked puppet of Alvara Uribe--is deliberately trying to destroy the peace process. Also missing is the outrageous extent to which U.S. ambassador Kevin Whitaker is meddling in Colombia's internal politics by applauding the the critics of the JEP (Special Jurisdiction for Peace) and revoking US visas of JEP proponents in the Congress and even on the Colombian supreme court. No one in US media is reporting this disgraceful aspect of the story.

If the FARC start the war up again, the US should help the Colombian government use drones to get rid of them once and for all.

The peace deal worked fine until Duque was elected president. He promised to destroy the agreement, and that's what he's doing. Sadly, it seems that Colombians want 50 more years of war. By the way, Putin has his hands in this.

The project of this Promises Made series is wonderful.

As I advised my employer in Florence, “War should be the only study of a prince. He should consider peace only as a breathing-time, which gives him leisure to contrive, and furnishes as ability to execute, military plans.” Apparently the Colombian rebels have read my book!

The ultra-rich sitting on their piles of gold, which they have no idea what to do with, will never release any of this ill-begotten wealth to assist their impoverished fellow citizens. Not in Colombia, not in the United States. It is far more effective to spend a pittance on Fox Noise style propaganda which blames the poor for their own plight.

The people downvoted this ‘peace’ deal, which the NYT heavily supported at the time of the vote, because they knew it was not about peace but about Santo’s international reputation. It was rushed and ill prepared and did not account for where the government was going to get the money to pay for what was promised. Aside from what the article mentioned, the deal promised housing for the rebels, which the taxpayer resents paying for. santos knew he was on his way out, and so it would not be his problem. Before this deal, Colombia was on the brink of becoming an international hub for many foreign businesses in Latin America. People who had fled from the dangerous situation of the 90’s had returned and brought money with them. To pay for this deal, the government chose to levy disproportionately high wealth taxes on individuals and corporations, all of which evaporated, as did their money and the jobs they had created. Few Colombians disagree about the need for peace, but most understood that it was never going to be this simple. The NYT simplified the situation here (Venezuela, other rebel groups who did not sign who now want better terms, etc.). Santo’s Nobel peace prize, next to Arafat’s (the father of suicide bombers everywhere) and Obama’s (whom I like, but who allowed Russianto annex Crimea and invade Ukraine), should serve as a lesson to the committee to wait until their candidates prove their skill at actually contributing to peace before honoring them.

Pop culture in the United States has conflated the FARC with this struggle. They are a convenient bogey man, but have never had more than 10,000 soldiers. They and other leftist groups like the ELN committed many crimes, but some estimates suggest that their opponents, the right-wing paramilitaries, caused more than 80% of the deaths in the Colombian Civil War. Those same groups were at times funded and armed by the governments of Colombia and US. Trump appointed ambassador revoked the US visas of judges and threatened aid, supposedly to limit the power of the peace tribunals. Is this a coverup to stop guerilla testimony? Or just a way to keep the arms sales up? Thank you Mr. Casey for explaining how President Duque prefers conflict to peace.

This is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Ivan Duque came into power on the premise that he was skeptical of the peace accords, his patron, former president Alvaro Uribe has been a fervent critic of the peace process since it begun, and using his considerable charisma as well as twitter and Facebook, has convinced a significant percentage of Colombians that the peace accords are flawed and should be rolled back. Now that they are on power they are doing everything they can to torpedo the process and now are saying "see, we told you, the whole thing was bad". This is Akin to the conservatives in the US telling the people government doesn't work, then getting on power under that premise and proceeding to break the government just to later tell us "see, we told you government was broken".

It is hard to give credence to an article that does not mention the incredible leadership of President Uribe and the Colombian military in battling the narco dependent FARC into submission. The complete failure of the Santos government to deal from strength and to honor commitments to the people show the emptiness of that government's promises and the complete corrupt falsehood and empty values of Santos and the Nobel Prize Committee (but then after honoring Yasser Arafat, we knew that!). The true story is that of a weak liberal party turning off the path of strength and justice in favor of weak vacillation and how that leads to insurrection by narco fueled terrorists/kidnappers/mercenaries.

There will be conflict as long as gangsters and Paracos (paramilitary) steal land and murder peasants and union organizers--too often with help from the right wingers in government, police and military.

The article, backed with many statistics implies Colombia is a dangerous place to visit, a perception still held by many Americans and reinforced by American media. The reality is that the war between the FARC and the government was winding down for many years before the peace agreement was signed. Having traveled Colombia many times in the last 20 or so years I can attest that it continues to be a wonderful, safe destination with warm welcoming people.

This is an opportunity for the U.S. to do some good by helping with tons of aid to help build the country side up instead of donating billions in weapons just to stop communism.

Is the U.S. participating in financing the peace? We absolutely financed the war, and it is largely our addiction and our narcotics policies that make coca such a lucrative crop.

"A primary goal of the FARC insurgency was improving the lives of rural Colombians" Didn't FARC kill and kidnap these same rural Colombians? And didn't these Colombians vote against the peace deal because of that? Creating false equivalency with the government is not a good idea. It may have started as a Communist outfit, and therefore aiming for a dictatorship (lived under one of those). After cold war FARC turned into a criminal organization.

It is interesting to read the comments. As so often, the readers see what they want to see. Yes, the conflict started as a class struggle, but that is only how it started 50 or more years ago. Then the FARC got into the drug trade. So today it is really all about the money, and what is the most effective way to resolve illegals trading of drugs and the violence that comes with it? Legalize it! That will resolve everything as suddenly you can talk about it openly, have quality standards, even fax it, and have the farmers make an honest living. Who is preventing that form happen? The country that consumes the illiberal drugs, the U.S. I have yet to meet someone in the U.S. that thinks that the cocain consumer is the problem.

My daughter and I were in Colombia last year on a tour. The people are wonderful, friendly and upbeat. Our tour was a “people to people “ experience. We walked around Comuna 13, which was the most dangerous neighborhood of Medellín during the drug wars. The young people living and working there were so optimistic about the future of their community and their country. Medellín has an excellent public transportation system. A taxi driver we rode with, when I asked him if he was from the city said yes, but he left for a while and when he returned, all his friends had been murdered. This report makes me sad. After my trip I felt things were on the way up for the Colombianos. Given the history of most Latin American countries, a right-wing government that can’t accomplish any level of truth and reconciliation will surely take the country back to a very bad place. And the people will suffer.

One thing that never changes in Colombia--the Colombian government, and the elite business interests backing it, have never had the least intention of actually carrying through their part of the bargain to rebalance the extreme inequality of wealth. The wars with the guerrillas have always been about land theft and exploitation by the wealthy against small farmers and peasants, as well as exploitation of poorly paid workers. As with an earlier peace deal with another rebel group, assassins have begun to kill former rebels and activists once they have come out of hiding. As it has done in many other Latin American countries, the U.S. government (both Democrats and Republicans) always sides with the wealthy against the poor, arming and advising the Colombian armed forces and police, and allowing the Colombian government free rein at forming death squads. This is an unrelenting class war by the wealthy against the poor in Colombia. It's no wonder the rebel groups are rearming. They have no other choice.

How sad, so much injustice and suffering, and the ravages and the horrors of drug cartels, so difficult to incorporate the culprits into a national conversation and allow some redemption for the country's 'black sheep', and the desperate need for peace. May forgiveness be allowed in the picture...while repentance a must, and the need for social atonement in evidence?

My son and daughter-in-law vacationed in Columbia recently After I had read about the renewing of violence and expressed concern to my son, he said not to worry as they would not be in a dangerous area. That was true, but, now, having read this very sad article, I see here are no heroes setting Columbia on a peaceful path. Corruption appears to be the scourge of our planet - the price laying waste to our environment and killing innocents.

"But the government also bears much of the blame." The government, previous and successive, bear all the blame. The FARC is the epitome of perseverance. They have fought for more than 50 years against, for the most part, one right wing government after the other, government sanctioned death squads roaming the countryside (even still according to the article), etc., all because & egged on by the U. S. government. And why did government after government continue this? Because the U. S. is frightened to death of COMMUNISM. Even just a photograph of Karl Marx sends truly brave men like John Bolton into paroxysms of fear. The current Colombian government, right wing of course, feels the Peace Treaty signed by the previous government is too lenient. Of course, because only the FARC was guilty of killing people surely not the military & its paramilitary death squad partners in crime. As to money available for promises made, well, the Colombian government always seemed to be able to find some for military hardware. Blackhawk helicopters, M4 & M16 rifles, to use against the scary Communists. But run a telephone line or build a school & then the screaming refrain of, "OMG that costs money & will take 10 years or more," begins. So the FARC goes back to war. Good. The government breaks the deal & they should and will pay the price. If more people and groups around the world had the wherewithal to endure & fight for what is right in one way or the other we'd all be better off.

This article only hints at the cause of this conflict. The rebellion against the government that resulted in this long war was a struggle of landless peasants and workers against an intrenched oligarchy that ruled Columbia for the last century. This was at its core a class struggle. References to poverty and lack of services need to be compared to the wealth concentrated in the major cities and the vast landholdings by a select number of old families. The "violence" referred to is mostly being carried out by right wing death squads that have sought revenge not only against former FARC fighters, but labor organizers and even rural teachers. To be a labor organizer in Columbia is to plan not to live past age 30. It's not surprising that the dirty work of these death squads is mentioned but not really explored. Our government and the NYTimes itself sided with the Columbian oligarchy in this struggle. We weren't about to let Columbia become another Venezuela or Cuba with socialized medicine and education and state investment in rural infrastructure. Those who have taken up arms again are mostly former FARC members defending themselves against the death squads. With the US rollback of the "pink tide" Columbia's right wing president is emboldened to bring FARC into the electoral arena, as long as power remains entrenched with his ruling elites. This arrangement will never last as it hasn't in countless other countries. As the old labor song goes, 'which side are you on.'

One of the biggest problem in the country are the corrupt politicians and their false hope that exploiting natural resources is the answer to a better economy. All government offices blindly support multinational companies looking for a quick buck whether looking for oil, gold, emeralds, silver, coal and many of the other treasures the country has, neglecting people's wishes for a different type of economy environmentally and humanly sustainable. Ultimately, this is creating a government-private industry versus the people conflict that goes beyond the war that had been going on for many years and magnifying the problem to a new level.

This is a sad tale. We have recently spent more than three months in Colombia and we were utterly charmed by the people. They are open, helpful and cheerful and clearly enjoying having foreigners around again. We were also struck by the sophistication of the infrastructure in the areas we visited. Public transport was generally good, travelling by air was actually enjoyable for the first time in years and medical services in the cities were world class. I really hope that they manage to extend this clear capability to a national scale and get back on track. It would be an awesome place to live if they do.