Of course, "undocumented" means illegal.
It is a euphemism used as a thin disguise for illegal.
Whether or not they commit "regular" crimes
at, above or below the rate of others,
they are here illegally.
Their mere presence in the USA is illegal,
every day that they are here,
and they can be deported anytime,
and they ought to be deported as soon as possible
-- whether or not they have committed a "regular" crime.
Just like a trespasser.
Just like a gatecrasher.
19
The data points represent entire metro areas in some cases, too broad a swath of people. For example, there are probably more illegal immigrants in Philadelphia proper than the entire Philly +burbs-SouthernNJ-Delaware regional area. Look at the neighborhoods in Philly and I guarantee you this trend line flips upwards and to the right.
9
These graphs don’t show any real trend. If anything they show that there’s essentially no connection at all. The authors should not use the tools of statistics if they don’t understand how to use them.
13
Completely consistent with our experience in Baltimore, the Hispanic and other immigrants are too busy working and moving up the ladder. In fact, they associate criminal behavior with African Americans, who they see as unsuccessful.
2
@Robert Goodell
This stereotype that "illegal immigrants are busy working while African Americans are associated with criminal behavior” helps to explain why many employers prefer to hire illegal immigrants over African Americans. The Harvard economist George Borjas found a negative correlation between the increase in illegal immigrants and employment rate of African Americans. As the number of illegal immigrants increased, the rate of African American employment decreased.
The media does not pay much attention to how illegal immigrants have been displacing African Americans, or the negative effects this has been having on African American families. The media tries to instead encourage the public to lump all racial minorities into the group “people of color”, and encourage the public to think that an indignity suffered by one racial minority is, in effect, suffered by them all. If reporters bothered to look more closely, they would see that illegal immigrants are making the lives of many hard working African Americans much more difficult.
15
Can you point to any info about this? Serious question because it’s an interesting point.
5
How do they know how many undocumented immigrants are in any particular area if they are undocumented? Isn't the whole purposed of being undocumented is for police to NOT know where you are?
17
That graph is ridiculous. Everyone can calculate a Mean Square Deviation of any scatter plot. No-one can tell me that you can come to a significant statement with the scattered data in the graph. And I am only a mathematician.
I am sure that you can tilt the linear regression into a positive direction and the R value would not budge one bit.
Was this graph by any chance done by an MBA?
16
The narrative of this story proves itself false. If illegal immigrants are afraid to report crimes to the police, then crime should be substantially lower in communities with a high percentage of illegal immigrants. Since crime is about the same, one can only conclude that either illegal immigrants are as likely to report crimes as legal residents (not likely), or the actual crime rate in communities with illegal immigrants is higher than reported, and therefore higher than the norms.
The story even goes on to explain that poor people in unstable circumstances commit more crimes (and are victims of more crimes). Generally speaking, illegal immigrants are more likely to be poor and in unstable living situations. That’s the whole point. It’s not that illegal immigrants are inherently bad people, it’s that illegal immigrants are more likely to be in desperate straights.
This is also called “common sense” and the more the Times argues against common sense, the less credible it becomes. Please stop positioning your opinions as facts, and please get some balance on your editorial board.
23
@Jake
A thumbs up isn't big enough. Amen, brother.
6
Trump never tells the truth about crime and immigrants. He knows both legal and illegal immigrants, have a lower crime rate than native born Americans. Most of the worst gun massacres in America, were committed by native born Americans, not immigrants.
Cherry picking crime victims, to rile up your base, is dog whistling. No mention of how illegal immigrants have saved American lives, as that does not fit the Trump narrative.
Most major crime categories are falling in the US, yet Trump pretends crime is out of control. It would be pleasing if Trump could initiate ways to make Americans safer, with modest gun reform, but that is another area where Trump and the Republicans, would rather misinform the nation, instead of making America safer.
13
this is like saying that there is no causal evidence linking moisture to wetness. being in the US as an undocumented (illegal) immigrant is in itself a crime. therefore, the more undocumented immigrants there are, the more crime there is.
8
The article clearly addresses the fact that they’re looking at violent crimes and property crimes. Not political crimes.
14
There is a flaw that may be overlooked in the data collected for this study. Immigrant communities are less likely to report crimes to law enforcement for fear of being deported, therefore they would not show up in FBI UCR.
14
Crime comes in different flavors.
when an illegal immigrant comes to my ER for dialysis (Illegal immigrants can buy Insurance through Obamacare), because they have no insurance; they displace a deserving citizen.
there are 6500 illegal immigrants who use our ERs for 'emergent' (and free) dialysis. They cost the system $300,000 annually EACH!
is this a crime?
Could you pull this off in other countries?
https://www.npr.org/2019/05/12/721800514/transplants-a-cheaper-better-option-for-undocumented-immigrants-with-kidney-fail
29
@jack if they are legally purchasing insurance, doesn’t that entitle them to treatment? Confused, can you please clarify?
10
@jack - yes - turns out that most other advanced countries (Sweden, Denmark, Canada, UK etc.) simply treat the person, not bankrupt them, even if they were just visiting (whether legally or illegally). Heck as an America you will get cheaper and better care in Belgium at a private hospital for things like a hip transplant using an American made hip, than you would in the US. So the problem in your example is the insane US medical system, not the immigration status of those that need a kidney (and of course immigrants also contribute to the transplant pool in the US, just as they pay taxes for which they get no benefits in return).
https://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/04/health/for-medical-tourists-simple-math.html
9
If one believes the trend lines then larger numbers of illegal aliens result in less crime.
11
@RonR - yep - that’s correct!
From the Department of Public Safety in Texas, a new report created in cooperation with federal agencies:
\\According to DHS status indicators, over 289,000 criminal aliens have been booked into local Texas jails between June 1, 2011 and April 30, 2019, of which over 196,000 were classified as illegal aliens by DHS.
\\Between June 1, 2011 and April 30, 2019, these 196,000 illegal aliens were charged with more than 306,000 criminal offenses which included arrests for 556 homicide charges; 33,816 assault charges; 5,888 burglary charges; 38,601 drug charges; 426 kidnapping charges; 16,387 theft charges; 24,402 obstructing police charges; 1,711 robbery charges; 3,611 sexual assault charges; 4,826 sexual offense charges; and 3,083 weapon charges. DPS criminal history records reflect those criminal charges have thus far resulted in over 124,000 convictions including 254 homicide convictions; 14,100 assault convictions; 3,258 burglary convictions; 18,445 drug convictions; 179 kidnapping convictions; 7,259 theft convictions; 11,602 obstructing police convictions; 1,037 robbery convictions; 1,783 sexual assault convictions; 2,406 sexual offense convictions; and 1,325 weapon convictions.//
Most of these are crimes would not have occurred if our system of immigration and border security were working properly. The victims of these crimes would likely contest the suggestion that illegal immigrants do not impact the rates of crime in the United States.
24
@Dougal E Those figures seem large, but they only have meaning when you compare them to something. 254 murder convictions in 8 years in a state with 27 million people and a thousand murders a year. Every one counts, and I'm not saying they don't. But this article is comparing data from different places to draw conclusions.
(Also, TX has a high murder rate. What's going on?)
4
@Eric Thanks for responding. Meanings are a matter of interpretation. These figures represent only Texas. The figures from other border states like Arizona, New Mexico, and California will be similar per capita. That is a lot of crime that could be prevented.
The elephant in the room is that if we had a functional system of border enforcement, these figures could be enormously reduced. Yes, we have high murder rates in the US. We are an open society with individual liberties that people often abuse. But that shouldn't prevent us from reforming our Immigration laws to help reduce the problem. We should not be importing murderers, wife abusers, bank robbers, rapists and check bouncers from other nations.
Let's get together and fix the problem. But Democrats won't do that because it will give Trump a feather in his hat in his re-election campaign.
7
I was nearly killed in a car accident by an illegal immigrant without car insurance. He drove across a freeway median into a freeway exit he had apparently missed. Luckily I reacted quickly and slammed on the brakes. The driver behind me thought we were both dead. The point being that it only takes one person who flouts the laws by being here illegally to end your life or to injure you. One crime committed by an illegal immigrant is one crime too many.
Statistics lie.
23
Much research has shown that illegal immigrants don't commit a lot of property or violent crimes.
Why? The typical illegal alien doesn't migrate until he's too old to join a youth street gang.
And deporting illegal aliens when they are released from prison keeps down the numbers of repeat offenders. There are excellent career opportunities in Mexico these days for the criminally inclined.
However, much data suggests that undocumented workers' American-born sons and grandsons tend to commit serious crimes at fairly high rates, especially compared to the descendants of legal aliens.
The most sensitive aspect of thinking sensibly about crime is that the native-born American crime rates are inflated by the very high violent crime rates of African-Americans. A 2011 Obama Administration homicide report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics noted that blacks from 1980-2008 were homicide offenders at a rate almost 8 times that of whites (with most Hispanics being lumped in with whites).
Compared to the black homicide rate, the Hispanic rate seems low, although it's poorly documented due to many police departments still treating Hispanics as white in Most Wanted listings.
12
@Steve Sailer
The way these studies are framed is to get readers to think they are comparing illegal immigrants to white Americans. In reality, according to the Obama Administration in 2011, the majority of murders in American are committed by the black minority of 13% of the population, so the black contribution to the native-born American crime rate dominates the white contribution.
Illegal immigrants tend to be more Hispanic while legal immigrants tend to be more Asian.
Asians in the U.S. tend to have much lower average homicide rates than do Hispanics. American whites also have on average lower homicide rates than American-born Hispanics.
The usual rank order of homicide rates in the US in recent decades has been:
1. Black
2. Hispanic
3. White
4. Asian
This rank order is found in most states.
The one main complexity is that blacker Hispanics, such as Puerto Ricans in Connecticut, tend to have higher homicide rates than less black Hispanics, such as Mexicans in California or Cubans in Florida, but even that doesn't change the rank order much.
Contra this article, legal immigrants have much lower murder rates than illegal immigrants. The difference among their children is even greater.
9
@Steve Sailer
The very high crime rate for African-Americans
is the elephant in the parlor,
especially in the parlors of the pro-immigration crowd,
when they chatter about how "studies" supposedly show that native-born Americans have higher crime rates than immigrants.
8
This misses the point entirely. I have a friend whose relative was killed by a criminal illegal alien. If the criminal had been vetted, perhaps the victim still would be alive. Countries have a right to decide who gets to immigrate. This is an example of why.
26
The only proven co-relationship is between young male adults and the incidence of crime. Fewer young men, less crime.
11
The headline is rhetorical. Of course there’s a connection between immigration and crime. Everyone that has come to America’s shores since Columbus was an immigrant. Crime rose correspondingly. We totally forget that we are a nation of immigrants.
6
If low-skill immigrants have a magical capacity to reduce crime, why aren't they in high demand from other countries? How is it that we are able to capture this valuable resource and not have undocumented immigrants snatched away from us by Canadians eager to see their own crime rate diminished?
20
if these people are less prone to crime wouldn't their countries be safe?
5
The article is a straw man.
Any crime committed by an illegal immigrant should not have occurred. The perpetrator should not have been in this country to begin with.
Or you can ask some of the victims and their families about this. You'll probably have plenty of chances in the next presidential election. Do keep up the good work.
13
Every time this comes up I sigh, snicker, and sadden at Trump yelping and stirring up hate of all immigrants by naming one particular incident where an immigrant that was deported and came back illegally murdered.
While every year Americas murder what was 17,500 or so other Americans. It was something like 40,000 in 2018.
But heck we got to have our hand guns and weapons of war to hunt Bambi with.
6
So we are made to believe there is systematic Misogyny and a horrific violent crime wave in major parts of South America (El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico etc), which is causing women, children and even young men to come to the US.
On the other hand I'm being told that all these people (a majority of them young men) are actually even more law abiding then US citizens..
Looks like one turns over a new leaf when you cross the Rio Grande.
13
My understanding is that the people crossing the Rio Grande are fleeing those same criminals.
5
@jack Your comment is a perfect example of personal beliefs leading to false reasoning. Yes, there is a horrific, violent crime wave in parts of South America. And those who perpetrate those crimes stay where they are, with their gangs. Why should they leave? They are in control. Those who are not part of the gang and violence problem are terrified and run to a country that used to stand for compassion, democracy and fairness. They do not need to "turn over a new leaf'.
10
Yale and MIT researchers say there are between 16.7 and 29.5 million unauthorized immigrants so, statistically, it could be that they are committing fewer of the reported crimes than the native born.
Perhaps the more important question is to what extent are they destabilizing the lives of American citizens and legal residents. Where are the between 16.7 and 29.5 million illegal migrants living? Even though many of them may be in one apartment, they are still making that affordable rental unit unavailable to citizens and legal residents. Fewer unrented units means the rent on other less expensive units can go up. This leaves citizens and legal residents with fewer units and they are more expensive.
In some places, there are not any unrented affordable units. (After the fire in Paradise, Ca., low income residents were told there were not any affordable units available for them to rent in the entire state.)
Being barely able to afford the rent made higher by the large number of illegal migrants or being unable to find any affordable housing leads to instability. This negatively impacts people’s lives at school and work.
Besides taking affordable housing off the market, illegal migrants crowd classrooms, reducing the quality of education. They crowd hospitals, making beds unavailable. They take time and resources from social service agencies. Every resource that is used by illegal migrants makes it unavailable to citizens and legal residents who need it.
15
to add to your point, those displaced Americans who can no longer afford the rent, search for other ways to get money.
5
There is a connection between violent crime and drug abuse and usage. Simply allow drug addicts get their drugs at a hospital and violent crime will decrease dramatically. When a drug addict can not get their fix they commit robberies. If they simply hit treatment crimes would fall rapidly.
4
I am still not sure why many NYT readers support loose immigration laws and socialism. Loose immigration and socialism do not co-exist around the globe - try crossing into Denmark and claiming that you want to live there. Loose immigration is very much consistent with the pure form of capitalism where wages are driven down for most workers while profits increase for capital owners. So unless the idea is to have a critical mass of new immigrants large enough to expropriate wealth from the undesirable socio-economic group I see no reason to advocate both.
13
This misses the point completely. I have a friend whose relative was killed by an illegal. If the criminal illegal had been vetted, perhaps the victim still would be alive. A country should have the right to determine who gets to come. This is an example of why.
11
The reasoning is starting in the wrong place. It is de facto legal to hire so-called illegals provided unstated boundaries (*) are not exceeded. Yet it is illegal to BE a so-called illegal.
(* boundaries: Don't be a tax evader, don't go far beyond hiring more than your neighboring businesses hire, don't stick out like a sore thumb, don't yourself be an immigrant).
I would expect people in a desperate position to, an average, to commit more crimes than if those SAME people weren't in a desperate situation. That's the statistics of human nature.
One thing this article doesn't take account of is so-called illegal on so-called illegal crime. It's usually either illegal or unwise for so-called illegals to request legal help when they are the victims of crime, because they could end up in jail. So they don't report. Therefore the figures in this article are incomplete. But that's irrelevant, because the focus needs to be on why the US permits a hypocritical asymmetric employer-legal but employee-illegal system.
In Canada, employers can hire seasonal workers, but they need legal authorization, have to supply transport, housing, health insurance, and meet some wage conditions. If they don't they are illegal employers.
Yes, if we did that food, clean toilets, and roof repairs would be more expensive. I say it would be worth it, just to see roofing workers wearing safety harnesses like they should be.
8
pay your fellow Americans more, possibly even union wages, so they can support themselves? That's just crazy talk.
6
The hypothesis contained in the question is a matter of very simple logic.
If one is in a country undocumented, one tries to the utmost to stay out of sight of the authorities that might remove you from that country. In other words, one would stay out of the way of law enforcement as much as possible.
9
You have missed the point entirely. If one illegal immigrant kills or injures an American citizen, that is one murder or injury too many.
I am sure that relatives who have been killed by illegals wished that America had enforced its immigration laws.
47
@Charles Turner - aaaand I'm sure that relatives of people shot by criminals who got guns by stealing unsecured ones or bought them by sellers exploiting loopholes in background check laws wish those laws were enforced.
And since most of the murders in the United States are done by citizens, we sure have a lot of desire to better enforce domestic violence penalties.
Pollution kills thousands here every year, (many more than are killed by immigrants), and shortens the lives of others - yet our current Administration is notoriously lax on enforcing our laws - is actively working to loosen them, in fact.
Coal miners have a dangerous job, and the Administration has relaxed mine safety laws, too.
7
Unlike what this study demonstrates, there actually is a causative relationship between white racism and crime. What are you proposing the US does with them?
3
@You have missed the point entirely. If one person named Charles kills or injures an American citizen, that is one murder or injury too many.
I am sure that relatives who have been killed by people named Charles wished that America had enacted gun restriction laws.
5
When illegal immigrants cause accidents, do they have home or auto insurance? When they get sick, do they have health insurance? When they need remedial education, do they pay for it? When they get jobs, do they use their own identification or steal someone else's? I don't care that their rates of bad / criminal behavior are no higher. They still aren't legally here, and we should not tolerate this illegality in these large numbers.
48
Breaking the law is still pretty much breaking the law. When people come into this country by crossing into it through non legal means they are criminals.
35
Oh my what statistically relevant data you report. I think we call that "shotgun data" no correlation.
12
Here’s a fact: Any crime perpetrated by an illegal alien is a crime that would not have been committed if they were not in this country. Maybe they would have committed the crime somewhere else, but not here. I favor expanded LEGAL immigration, but it isn’t going to be expanded until we control ILLEGAL immigration. Know the difference.
31
@Thomas Smith - I agree with you that we need both parties to work together on a new set of immigration laws, but please note that it would not affect crime rate - it might just reduce the likelihood that we could deport the perpetrator.
3
plus - the resources that illegal aliens use could be put to use reducing crime rates of American citizens by providing better housing and better schools.
3
No human is illegal.
15
@albert
What? There are illegal immigrants!
8
@Albert Maybe not, but humans who cross borders illegally are criminals, by definition.
10
Thanks for re-electing Trump in 2020!
15
If places like California, NY state, New Jersey are sanctuaries and do not cooperate with the Federal government how do you know they even ask if they are even asked if they are legal? I believe that would affect the statistics.
20
Could it be that unauthorized immigrants "cause" crime by being the victims, and since they would be loath to report crimes against them, result in a lowering of the crime rates by increasing the population against whom crimes could be committed while lowering the chances that the crimes are reported?
11
Four quotes jump to mind while reading this fine treatise:
1. Science is truth. Don’t be misled by fact.
2. If enough data is collected, anything may be proven by statistical methods.
3. Numbers don’t lie, but they have the propensity to tell the truth with intent to deceive.
4. The human being is prone to seeing patterns and will often see patterns where only random noise exists.
The scatter plots in the article come complete with handy “trend” lines, even noting that “outliers removed in all charts”... Enough research will support any conclusion. Have at it.
Next time, dare I suggest, perhaps consider taking a serious course in statistics before publishing these kind of suggestions and conclusions?
13
@Science Is Truth! May I suggest that you read the article and notice that Anna Flag is a senior data reporter? If *you had* taken a stat course, you would know that outliers could be in either direction. Also, a paper in Criminology (2017) by Light and Miller reached the same conclusions. In short, you cannot accuse the authors not to know statistics, if you haven't even been able to see their analysis.
14
@Science Is Truth!
“The human being is prone to seeing patterns and will often see patterns where only random noise exists.”
That’s the entire point of the article: the data shows no pattern between violent crimes and increased immigration.
Did your own “serious statistics course” consist entirely of cynical quotables about numbers? It doesn’t look like they taught you how to interpret a basic scatter plot.
4
I wonder if even the engineers in the movie "Hidden Figures" could follow those scatter plots.
2
Illegal immigrants are not desirable phenomena whether they are statistically associated with crime more than others. It is wrong to belittle matters that are illegal. It is also wrong to try to inflate the negatives of illegal immigrants with shaky statistical findings. There is a big enough margin of error in either way. Just handle illegal matters as illegal.
36
@Rather not being here, the problem is not legality or illegality, it’s a system that perpetuates and seems to savor maintaining the distinction as some sort moral trophy to put up on its mantle. My wife and I have an old friend who lived and worked here illegally for years and one year returning from a trip to Mexico to see her mother she was caught at the border and held in INS detention. Rather than screaming the inhumanity of it all, we and some friends hired a lawyer and got her legal. It wasn’t a complicated, heart wrenching quandary all about right and wrong, just simple logic.
10
By simply definition illegal immigrants are already criminals for breaking US Immigration laws. To argue otherwise would be akin to claiming "...illegal immigrants don't contribute to higher crime rates only if one doesn't consider their illegal immigration status..." Unbelievable.
39
Have you ever run a red light? That's against the law but it doesn't make you a criminal. There are significant distinctions between crimes, misdemeanors, minor offenses, things requiring fines or tickets, etc. You might want to reconsider your claim that "illegal immigrants are criminals by default" in light of this. Thank you, however, for posting the comment in that it gives opportunity for discussion and debate.
14
The common argument Fox espouses nightly is that illegal immigrants increase crime. They don’t. That’s all the article is about. Relax.
14
@Spencer Chandler Stepping one tipsy-toe across the border might be a small misdemeanor like a speeding ticket or running a red light. Establishing a residence, enrolling your kids in a public school, or working at a job under a dubious identity is a major fraud. If Paul Manafort lied that big he'd be on death row right now.
14
I know that "illegal immigrant" describes someone who entered this country without authorization or who overstayed their visa without permission.
I suppose "undocumented immigrant", to those using that term, means someone who is legally here but lost or left their entry visa or papers home.
"Unauthorized immigrant"? - that's a new one to me.
16
I didn't need a study to tell me this was true.
Anyone like me who is a life-long Californian familiar with both L.A. and northern CA -- who reads the local newspaper and community crime news -- knows the memes about illegal immigrants and crime rates are just not real, Trump's bloviating notwithstanding.
20
@Jules
The memes among the pro-immigrant crowd about high crime rates of "white" Americans also are "just not real".
There is an elephant in the room.
3
Every illegal alien commits a crime the first time they step over the border or overstay a visa. That seems to be a correlation factor of 1.0.
Studies like this one serve primarily to justify taking minimal action on arrests and deportation.
34
Breaking or violating a law doesn't make you automatically a criminal. Have you ever run a red light? Let your grass grow too long? Failed to pick up after your dog? There are crimes, misdemeanors, minor offenses, fines, tickets etc with a lot of distinctions along the way.
5
But not violent crime, which is what Trump uses to try to scare us....
7
@kwb What part of "violent crime" do you fail to understand?
4
It only seems logical that in areas with large numbers of illegal immigrants there is a real motivation to not report any crimes for fear of exposure, therefore creating the appearance lower crime rate even if it works against their own safety and best interest. Don’t ask me why I can’t get many of the parents of my students from my public school in East Los Angeles to return even the applications for free lunches either? Anything requiring any personal household information rarely ever comes back.
19
@John Doe A real argument of sanctuary cities.
5
@FreedomRocks76, you mean for the statistically lowered crime rates they can produce? Right on. Beats broken windows and stop and frisk policing to give the false impression of safety and police efficacy.
3
This article goes against what is maybe trumpists' favorite fake truth. But they won't budge. Can you hear them?
How dare those studies go against Breitbart's deepest insights. How desperate has the Failing NYT become, to question pure common sense. Using statistics that obviously wrong, tricked, biased, fraudulent. It's all a cover-up.
Here is the final proof of a deep coalition between intellectuals, scientists, and Fake News.
Democrats will use those lies to push their hidden agenda. The Big Replacement is coming.
11
@PubliusXXI - Great observation!!!
Interesting how these statistics contradict my experience of living in immigrant neighborhoods. We never bothered to report the car break-ins, the beatings, and vandalism. The cops were not going to investigate. I suspect the contempt for these statistics results from the cynicism of living in such conditions.
29
@landless,
Correct, statistics ≠ your individual experiences.
2
@landless Everyone knows that Brooklyn would be an area with no crimes if it were not for those pesky immigrants...right? It was great when there were no immigrants in Brooklyn. Was it before the 1900s? Are you that old?! Congratulations!!
5
@Mike Actually, I was living in the San Francisco Mission during the 70s and 80s.
4
This is bad, bad statistical analysis. And it ignores important research that says why. The reported studies are based on reported crime, and immigrants, especially undocumented immigrants, are less likely to report crime. Crime victims are generally victimized by similar types of people, including family and friends. Therefore, immigrants are associated with less reporting of crime, not less crime.
Also, the reported crime figures used do not include forgery which is obviously common among undocumented immigrants. The same might be true of drug smuggling.
25
Your statement begs two questions:
1. If the crimes are not reported, how do you know they are occurring? Let’s see your statistics.
2. If they only target members of their own community and don’t burden police, hospitals, or the fire department (all of whom would report crimes), why would you care? Even if by some odd chance you had empathy for the victims, why would you assume the crime rate would be higher here than in their homelands?
8
And you know this how? Because you thought of it? If your argument is true then there exists no data to prove it....
2
@tebteb I doubt the "violent crime" is not reported. And there are statistical models that accommodate for missing data.
4
There are two separate issues here, and we would do well to keep them separate:
1) The question of whether immigrants commit more crimes than American-born people. Answer: Probably not.
2) The question of how much immigration is good for the US, and of what kind. Tied to this are the questions of who should get to come, work, become citizens.
If you don't like immigration, there are many good arguments to be made around the second set of questions. Crime isn't one them. Let it go, and construct your arguments on the real issues. If you let your strong feelings, anger or even hysteria around immigration cause you to latch on to weak arguments (ie: crime) you undermine your credibility and effectiveness.
19
Sociologists have long established, independent of country and location that poverty drives crime, not people who eagerly take on jobs no-one else wants. Working populations stimulate economies, which is a net positive. Stephen Miller knows that.
Lower living standards and destruction of the American middle class have been caused by neoliberal economic policies “invented” by Milton Friedman and pursued by his friends.
Neoliberalism argues that deregulation is the only way markets can thrive. Having destroyed unions, corporations began to export manufacturing and accompanying jobs abroad. Under Bill Clinton, Bob Rubin & his Wall Street friends deregulated the financial markets causing the eventual 2008 Great Recession.
So, it’s really hedge fund fraudsters who caused the economic crash, not Mexican hedge trimmers. It’s Purdue Pharma that introduced OxyContin and caused the addiction and deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans. Chinese opioid synthetics are smuggled through Mexico that are also killing Americans and causing crime from addicts. Trump should press President Xi to put an end to its manufacturing and close Purdue Pharma as well as the Israeli Teva Pharma, generics manufacturer, supplier of opioids Talk about who’s causing crime
5
@Ted Isn't the "illegal" labor drive wages down and directly competes with the unionized labor?
6
liberals used to claim they supported unions. Apparently, that was only an excuse to excoriate big business. Now they show no compunction that union labor is replaced by cheap immigrant labor in a race to the bottom
2
@Ted
Actually Milton Friedman knew very well that high rates of immigration were capitaism's best ally in fighting socialism.
Whatever else you might say about Friedman,
he had a clear head.
More than can be said of the pro-immigrant Lefty Dems who think that high rates of immigration can co-exist with socialism.
1
Does the editorial board ever read the comments sections and see that the overwhelming majority of its mostly liberal readers vehemently oppose illegal immigration? Trump won the 2016 election the moment he spoke out against it because most Americans, liberal and conservative, see illegal immigration as a high priority problem that is inherently counter to our basic values of honesty and regard for law. Citizens are deeply offended that Democrats have one law for citizens, another for any illegal who happens to be 'brown'.
As long as the Dems, led by the NYT, continue to oppose all efforts to secure our borders, they are ignoring the will of the citizenry and guaranteeing another disastrous four years of Republican plunder and deregulation.
18
@JBR
Absolutely true, identity politics rearing its ugly head yet again. I'm all for immigration but legally. Stories like this and all others that the Times deems necessary to publish will give bone spurs a second term. Count on it.
10
Shout this from the mountaintops and barbed wired walls!
2
- As illegals are in the shadows, how does the NYT believe they’ve captured all the violent crimes by illegals? They captured only the violent crimes recorded by the police. And many police don’t record by immigration status.
- Perhaps illegals are not any more violent than the general population, but why have the nation subjected to those illegals who are violent? Being illegal means you’re unscreened. Legal means you’re screened. Isn’t it better to have the criminals and violence prone immigrants screened with the bad guys not allowed in the country. Wouldn’t one expect immigrants to be less violent than the general population?
- According to FBI statistics, blacks cause half the gun murders, and high proportions with other violent crimes. This significantly raises the violent crime rates on a blended basis. The NYT loves to compare racial gaps between whites and other groups. Why not compare white crimes of violence with that of illegals? Or more to the point, compare crimes of violence between legals and illegals.
- According to the district attorneys’ office in the Bronx, blacks have a propensity for murders and assaults, Hispanics a propensity for child molestation including rape. The latter under reported and typically amongst family.
11
"The data suggests that when it comes to crime, the difference between someone who is called a legal immigrant and an illegal one doesn’t seem to matter."
The conclusion that immigrants have little if any impact on the overall crime rate is supported by most of the article in a cohesive manner. However the last paragraph of the article is a conclusion that has nothing to do with the data presented in the bulk of the piece and is in direct contradiction to the two CATO institute studies cited in the article. In those Illegal immigrants behave slightly better than US born in terms of arrests and convictions (neglecting the fact that some are misdemeanor offenders depending how they entered), and legal immigrants behave much better than both US born AND illegal immigrants.
The data suggest that influx of illegal immigrants does not affect the OVERALL crime rate and that as a group they have arrest / conviction rates which are similar to the US born. But legal immigrants behave better than BOTH US born and illegal immigrants.
10
It’s a minor tragedy when hard statistics fail to support prejudices.
12
It shouldn't come as a surprise that so many posts' premise is violation of law as foundation for their disdain of immigrants. These are the same supporters of a law breaking POTUS. In much the same way, both use the operation of law when it serves their narrative. Do some illegal acts not count?
4
NYT insults its readers intelligence YET AGAIN.
Who is legitimately dense enough to think that illegal (or even legal) immigrants commit less crime than natural born citizens?
Who here remembers high school logic or statistics?
One number going down or flat while another goes up might be a no or negative correlation, but that doesn’t tell you a thing about individual or group crime rates.
If I told you that over the past 5 years, your house has gotten cleaner on average, but your family cleaned it less often, would that tell you anything about whether your kids cleaned it more? No. Same exact concept.
9
@Ben Lechter Sorry that you feel insulted. However, I would rely more on a statistical study done or commissioned or cited by this publication than your analysis.
I have commented about the sample, was the sample homogenous, what biases were introduced and the margin of error.
While true there may be some issues with the study, it does mirror what many law enforcement professionals state-that Trump's claims do not pass the smell test.
7
@Ben Lechter
Sorry, but your logic totally defeats me, and my education includes Bayesian statistics, advanced business math, and econometrics. Perhaps your high school statistics was just too long ago?
3
@Ben Lechter
Never hard to spot the Trump voter; faced with facts, yells fake news.
7
Isn't entering the country illegally a crime? Why isn't it 100%
19
@Paul because they are counting violent crimes.
7
Whoo boy. Being undocumented is a civil offense, not a criminal one. In short, at least legally, being undocumented is NOT a crime.
5
@Gerardo
Depends on the way one entered. Coming on a work visa / tourist visa and overstaying is civil. Jumping a fence / evading immigration checkpoints altogether is criminal.
https://www.cnn.com/2017/02/24/politics/undocumented-immigrants-not-necessarily-criminal/index.html
Overstays outnumber illegal crossers, but the latter is criminal.
7
It should also be said that this argument is as weak as the one that claims "most illegal immigrants enter via [fill-in-the-blank] so we don't need to [fill-in-the-blank]".
We don't stop enforcing immigration laws and our border because illegal entry occurs in a variety of ways.
11
Their study shows crime rates that have been adjusted by age group.
This is questionable at best.
Over 50% of undocumented immigrants were in the high crime age/gender group of 20 to 34 years and male. That group accounts for over 60% of our murders but less than 10% of our population.
You can see this best by looking at one county at ground zero for the immigration issues: Maricopa County in Arizona. At the peak of illegal immigration in Arizona, in 2007, murders were 100% higher and car thefts were 200% higher than in 2015. That's 150 more murders per year and 16,000 more car thefts per year in just one county.
The implied supposition of this article that illegal immigrants don't affect violent crime rates or property crime rates is just false.
21
@John Huppenthal and where did you find these statistics? Possibly from Arpaios own reckoning?
1
@John Huppenthal: understand that this survey was not commissioned to be objective but rather to advance the NYT editorial viewpoint.
6
@John Huppenthal
I can see that evidence-base discourse is not your forte. Please education yourself .... start here:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/30/upshot/crime-immigration-myth.html
Then avail yourself of the Cato studies .. and look up the word preponderance ....
2
Another inconvenient truth.
10
How much more likely is Trump to commit crimes than his predecessors in the White House?
12
@Corbin Well, after performing a Pareto analysis on previous administrations and the past actions of the charlatan, it it highly likely he already has committed crime.
3
It's sad to watch this play out. Racist Trump and the Fox News Right-Wing Propaganda machine repeat some utterly vacuous racist lie, making headlines. The NYT and Democrats take the bait and go on the defensive using facts and hard data to disprove the point. But why?? It's not like those on the right ever thought this was a "fact", it was only every a talking point. Facts and data from the NYT don't change any minds on the right.
Then here in the comments where you might hope to maybe see someone admit they were wrong about illegal immigrants and violence, one right-winger gives a single anecdote to dismiss all the data, and everyone else takes the bait and plays defense.
8
@ɘlbe
There is no denying that circumventing the current legal process for entering the country is illegal.
We need more legal immigrants and if the Dems were inclined to change the current laws, it would be done. The Dems inaction is the only reason the laws haven’t changed.
Their rush to make everyone happy, leaves no one happy.
7
All I know is the illegal immigrants I have been friends with here in Texas have escaped extreme poverty and crime (Honduras and Mexico) and have contributed economically. One went back home after continually being ripped off by the manager of the well known fast food restaurant who always took 5% of his pay off the top. The other is now a citizen. Immigrant communities in our urban areas have lower crime rates per my analysis of HPD crime stats. The same canard was lobbed at the Irish, Germans, Chinese, etc. We NEED immigrants and illegals who make it here should be allowed to stay as long as they contribute economically and do not commit violent crimes. Our birth rate is in decline on a macro level. Immigrants as a subset have a higher birth rate. As long as transfer payments to seniors and other groups increase, we need workers to pay for it otherwise our deficit spending will increase to alarming levels of our GDP. Trump's toxic tweets are a misinformation campaign not seen since the days of Adolf and Joseph.
18
@ricocatx
We do not need more people.
Sure, more people usually "grows" the "economic pie",
but the individual slices do not grow.
How so?
Because the "economic pie" -- even if bigger --
has to be divided among more people.
As for "transfer payments" to "seniors",
the solution not more immigration.
That is a giant Ponzi scheme.
Some day all those immigrants will themselves
retire and that will create a suppose need for still more immigrants -- on and on ad infinitum.
The best solution for funding for Social Security --
and for government employee pension plans --
is to raise the retirement age.
The age 65 retirement age for Social Security
was set 80 years ago,
when average life expectancy was only 65 or 70.
Since then average life expectancy has increased by 15 years to age 85.
At least 5 of those additional 15 years can be -- and ought to be -- devoted to working an additional 5 or 6 years.
That would still leave a net gain of 10 years
-- a bargain.
11
Except that immigrants have more kids than American-born people. So their kids will be paying into social security. And there is more than one pie. Many services are funded locally or statewide. Many jobs that immigrants do are not jobs that a laid-off miner or autoworker is gonna touch with a ten-foot pole.
2
@ricocatx
This is a fine example of illegal immigrants contributing to crime - by being victimized by an employer. If the law deters anyone from complaining about crime, they are likely to become frequent targets of criminals.
Someone might not call this "violent", but the cumulative effect can be far worse than a robbery. Though it mist directly affects vulnerable people, it ultimately affects everyone in the community, including honest business owners trying to compete.
8
According to a DHS report*, 20% of prison inmates are foreign born and a majority of them are illegal. That's a substantial group of illegal criminals. And those are just the ones who have been incarcerated.
****************
* Alien Incarceration Report, Q4 2017,
https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/Alien_Incarceration_Report_OIS_FY17_Q4_2.pdf
22
@AACNY The data you cite is just a snapshot in time and meaningless today save for trend analysis.
4
Illegal Immigrants don't commit a crime -- the people who employ them do.
If any Democrat made MANDATORY E-verify a policy plank, along with massive fines/jail time for those who knowingly hire and exploit undocumented persons, I bet we'd see the concern disappear; as long as undocumented persons make money that line the pockets of the 1%, there'll be no change. I am SICK AND TIRED of business owners, home owners and middle-managers hiring undocumented persons to work them harder in less safe conditions for even less money since it benefits them and hurts us. Also, how about maybe you have to be a citizen/legally employed to rent property -- with, again, punishments and fines for those who enable undocumented persons? I can't help but think that a lot of housing stock in L.A. would open up if you had to show proof-of-residence to rent ...
14
@JJR
And all those parents -- both Dems and Repubs -- illegally hiring illegal immigrants for child care.
8
@JJR Knowingly presenting false documents to "prove" eligibility to work is a crime, and I-9 employment forms specifically call this out.
3
If one illegal immigrant commits a crime, that's one too many!
16
@Max de Winter And conversely if one U.S. citizen or resident alien commits a crime that is one too many.
6
@Dan
That is not the converse. Maybe a corollary?
5
Illegal immigrants are not held to the same legal standards as citizens. Connecticut has just introduced legislation to reduce criminals penalties for illegal immigrants so deportation will not be triggered. That's right. Connecticut will officially hold citizens to a higher, more stringent legal standard than those who have chosen to violate federal law so they will not be held accountable for those actions. What a great state.
Illegal immigrants are exempt from a long list of crimes citizens are prosecuted for because of their illegal status. Law enforcement thinks pursuing them is secondary and not a good use of their time given the flight risk and them 'living in the shadows'.
Statistically illegal immigrants are less likely to commit crimes because they are not prosecuted and held to the same legal standards as citizens.
28
@CNNNNC Apart from immigration status, what other offenses are undocumented immigrants not prosecuted for that citizens are? Immigration offenses are "status" offenses, and jurisdictions often choose not to enforce status offenses. What other types of crimes are not being enforced with undocumented immigrants in CT?
8
@CNNNNC
Our prisons are full of Americans who would have greatly appreciated a "sanctuary city" in which they wouldn't have been prosecuted and especially a presidential order that federal law enforcement agencies had to release them if they hadn't committed a serious crime.
11
@Civres - Look up Judge Timothy Feeley in Massachusetts who told an illegal immigrant charged with drug dealing "If he was a citizen, I would send him to jail, I would."
The person before the judge had prior drug arrests too. (This just happened in 2018 I believe)
NYT had an article last year that cited example of illegal immigrants being allowed to plead guilty to "reckless driving" instead of being charged with drunken driving in order to not trigger deportation.
How is this not a civil rights/equal protection issue for U.S. citizens who face harsher penalties before the courts than illegal immigrants.
2
Crime in our cities is largely due to people born and raised here. I have taught in the inner cities around Los Angeles for over twenty years, and the students born here are the most likely to get caught up with gangs and heavily influenced by the culture of hopelessness that is so powerful in our struggling neighborhoods. The students that I have had that I knew were immigrants didn't share the same lazy and apathetic attitude about education. My students that were immigrants (legal or not) were usually hard working and motivated students. There were not looking to join a gang or embark on a lifelong path of destruction. The were willing to work hard at something. There are many other issues with illegal immigration like, money leaving the country, lack of tax contribution, lack of neighboring countries willingness to look out for their own people, etc... that should be the focus. This isn't one of them.
22
President Trump says that undocumented immigrants commit more crime than any other class of people.
His followers believe everything he says. Therefore, this article will not be believed by them, if they even read it.
10
@janye
This article is not believed by me, haha. And I read it. And, surprise, I actually can read, though in all other ways I am quite deplorable.
The data set is fatally flawed. Illegal immigrants do not report crimes against them by other illegal immigrants, legal immigrants or citizens. Given the massive number and concentration of illegal immigrants, that's a big number.
So I don't believe this article, but not because of Trump. Because of the article. Therefore, you are mistaken, and your post is without value.
Despite that, do have a nice day.
19
@John Xavier III
There are multiple data sets.
The CATO Study in Texas in compelling. It is based on actual arrests, actual convictions and actual incarcerations. Texas is a border state with a so-called undocumented alien problem. Compared to native born Americans, undocumented aliens are under-represented in Texaxs' prisons, particularly for violent crimes. Bottom line: if you want to make Texas safer, deport all the native born Americans.
3
@John Xavier III, your claim that illegal immigrants don’t report crimes is false and not supported by anything. Therefore your post is fatally flawed and without value.
3
And then you have studies showing amongst prison populations of gang members that a disproportionate number of members are illegal immigrants. At best, we can say evidence is inconclusive. Notwithstanding just the shear difficulty of finding accurate crime numbers on illegal immigrants given their very status as illegal.
At the end of the day though, we need to take a middle road. Illegal immigration isn't a national emergency as some would claim, but by the same token, why can't we make a push to deport illegal immigrants. Simplify proceedings for legal immigration so fewer people feel the need to come in illegally, and deport anyone who won't abide by that, no questions asked. I don't understand why this is so difficult- illegal immigration is still a crime, irrelevant of what the individuals are doing here once they're in the country. If you want to come in, do so legally and work with the system. I fully understand that there are issues with our immigration system, and yes, we need to make it better- in fact we have an obligation to do so. That still is no excuse to come here illegally and go past the rule of law.
9
trying to paint immigrants (legal or illegal) as less than concern with public safety (crime reporting) is deeply offensive. To say nothing of biased, or xenophobic.
the last paragraph could have been so much better than what was published (how about when it come to crime, immigrant or native born makes no real difference?). Just as accurate, and a whole lot less defamatory.
3
While increased crime is clearly a red herring, that in no way means that massive illegal immigration is good for this country.
We are already overcrowded and all our resources, social, financial, and natural, are already overstrained by legal residents. Wages for lower skilled citizens have been undercut and their jobs taken by low paid illegal aliens. Large parts of the country are being transformed into Hispanic cultures, not necessarily a bad thing but who asked the local citizens if that is what they want? Would we impose cultural change on any other country against their will? The Democrats and corporations are doing that to the US with their refusal to control illegal immigration.
12
Thanks for pointing out, though I don't know if this is a fake-news deliberate lie or truth, but let's assume truth, that illegal immigration is a civil violation or a misdemeanor.
We the people ought to put pressure on Congress to make illegal immigration a crime.
Argue me out of that one!
12
". . . because it’s hard to collect data on them, undocumented immigrants have been the subjects of few studies . . ."
undocumented
and studied very rarely
they are too quiet
3
@tim torkildson "they are too quiet". Hmm. There must be something there about the quiet...
3
There is such a consistent theme among people pointing out supposed flaws in the study--they propose that there is some giant stack of unreported crimes by undocumented immigrants because they themselves are not reporting it. No evidence of this is provided, only the idea that it must be true.
It's almost as though right wing media has already taught them how to think about this.
7
Illegals are those who already broke the law of the United States and those who broke law in the last certainly stand higher chance of breaking the law in the future. That's dead simple.
9
Not, it's not that simple. Just like the marijuana "gateway drug" hypothesis has not been shown to have merit, your suggestion that someone who commits a civil crime is more likely to commit a felony than someone who doesn't is not true. If it were, most Americans who have ever had traffic violations would have felonies on their record as well, and they don't.
4
@Larry Zhou Is it really that simple? Immigration offenses are status offenses. (Look it up.) Criminal acts exists along a continuum ranging from jaywalking to homicide—and immigration offenses are a whole lot closer to the jaywalking end of the spectrum. Does anyone really think that jaywalkers or speeders go on to commit serious violent crimes?
5
@Civres Well stated. But it will not be understood by many...
2
Does this matter? If you are the victim of a crime committed by an illegal alien it doesn't matter one bit. Had that illegal alien not been in the US you would not have been a crime victim. Amazing how simple some things are, isn't it?
15
Wouldn't that pertain to any crime? Better background checks or waiting periods or limiting the sale of AR-15 might prevent gun deaths? This logic could be used for any crime.
2
@Mike
Yes, the parents of kids killed by illegal immigrants have a valid complaint. Their kids' murders were completely avoidable if only our immigration laws had been enforced.
11
@Jerseyinred
This is true. And, you will therefore understand, that it can be used for crime committed by illegal immigrants.
3
My guess: folks who indiscriminately hate immigrants are more dangerous than the immigrants. I certainly fear hate mongers more.
16
However you interpret this, one thing is certain. When a crime IS committed, undocumented immigrants will be less likely to report the crime (against anyone, regardless of immigration status) for fear of being arrested themselves.
13
I am not sure how to interpret this - within the community of "illegals" reporting crimes on each other is begging for deportation and being expelled from the community. Same goes for crimes by legal residents against illegals. Only crimes by illegals against legals get reported by the legals. So if the population increases due to the legal population staying flat and the illegal population going up while committing vast majority of the crimes within its own community then the number of reported crimes per 100K of residents should decline or remain flat by construction while the number of the unobserved crimes is increasing.
9
Lies, damn lies and statistics, as someone once said. This is a flawed comparison. Does the NYT really believe that undocumented immigrants report crimes committed by other undocumented immigrants? Huge flaw in this "analysis."
26
@John Jabo
If I am the victim of a crime, believe me, I couldn't give 2 hoots whether the perpetrator is legal or not. I'm reporting it.
And, how do I know whether s/he is or not? Do they some special distinguishing feature?
3
@c According to Trump those who commit crime are brown-skinned and don't speak 'murikan. That would be the Trump definition of distinguishing features.
3
Study after study shows that crime rates among immigrants are lower than for those among the native born, and that crime rates for those here illegally are lower yet.
Statistics are wonderfully useful, but there's a seat-of-the pants question involved too. If you were in Winnipeg illegally, would you want to draw the attention of law enforcement by speeding, let alone committing actual crimes?
The real problem is that we have a "president" who is deliberately exploiting xenophobia to fire up his minority base. Notice that it is strongest in places where there are few immigrants, just as Islamophobia is strongest where there are few if any Muslims.
13
if illegal immigration was a cause of crime, (and thus all of those illegal criminals should be deported forthwith) then Queens and Brooklyn should be one of the crime capitals of the country.... .... .... ....
Do I hear contrary evidence? .... Silence. (Well, NO. New York is becoming more and more peaceful and crime free)
Of course not. It's just Trump's appeals to his base.
9
@Bob Hagan So, can you say if police in Brooklyn ask for and verify immigration status? What about in Manhattan? There is a high percentage of illegal immigeants in NY - about 10%. What's the story on that?
3
When I moved to South Florida, the people I met who lived in the Hispanic neighborhoods said anything not tied down will disappear. Just curious, are there any neighborhoods out there with lots of illegal immigrants from Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Haiti that are low-crime? I've just never heard of one.
21
@Somos
just because they are Hispanic neighborhoods doesn't mean anything regarding the immigration status of the residents, so any conclusion you try to draw around that issue is baseless.
8
Wheaton in Montgomery county MD, Broadway in Baltimore city.
2
@Somos
You are detailing textbook racism by your south Florida neighbors, and you may need to do some soul searching as well. Here in Texas, many neighborhoods are Hispanic - and to clear up a very important point - just because they are Hispanic does not mean they have "lots of illegal immigrants". These communities are very tight knit, safe, and often have much lower rates of crime than other neighborhoods. It is because they share this common heritage they are so safe.
You also may be conflating low income communities with "Hispanic" - a very common racist stereotype and misconception.
6
Uptick in crime or no (and foregrounding appellations like "civil violation" or "misdemeanor" for crossing borders unlawfully and taking up residence illegally is not the best way for the author to make her case), we've still got millions of people whose presence in the Shadowland of Non-Documentation was achieved by pushing to the front of a very long line -- and pushing out of the way the many law-abiding applicants for citizenship waiting in its queue.
Those are the people I think about with the most sympathy.
12
If you remove "Salisbury" data point from the plot, the "trend" line will be flat, i.e. based on this data cloud, there doesn't seem to be any relationship between these two variables.
2
I see one flaw with this report. There is no consideration that a likely victim of a crime by an illegal immigrant is another illegal immigrant who is not likely to report it for obvious reasons.
14
@Michael Feely
What study you base this ridiculous claim on? The one flaw with your comment is that there is no consideration for actual fact, and even worse, no intention of attaining any relevant or supporting information before making it.
1
Statistics are like a bikini, in that what they reveal is provocative, and what they conceal is vital.
~Kathryn Edin,
professor of public policy and management at Harvard’s Kennedy School
9
@ojones01
Well, considering that it isn't particularly difficult to 'know' what is being concealed by a bikini, I'm having a difficult time understanding the point you are trying to make with this silly quote....
1
A quick phrase, more intended to sound clever than be profound. Lacking statistics we are left with dull and stale habit, and the unexamined prejudices of unreflective louts.
2
Of course there's no "causal" connection? How could a study possibly establish that?
Is there a statistically valid correlation? I would almost bet my life that there's not. But the article itself casts doubt on the very study that it promotes -- pointing out that "it's hard to collect data" on illegal immigrants and that the minimal data that has been collected only "suggests" that there's no correlation.
I understand that the article was compiled and published as a response to President Trump's wholly unsupported and xenophobic insistence that illegal immigrants are "murderers" and "rapists." But you don't need an admittedly inconclusive and barely persuasive academic study to refute that phony claim
6
In case you are wondering, all of us in North America are immigrants. So the country with the highest incarceration rate per population, is the U S. oh those bad bad Americans.
3
@BW
Why do pro-illegal immigrationists keep saying this kind of dumb thing?
No, all of us in North America are not immigrants.
::eyeroll::
4
Great identity politics piece, NYT! Albuquerque,NM, has the highest per capital stolen car rate in the country. No illegals in that town! All the news that leans to the demographic.
15
@Paul
Writing from "that town"...NM has a loads of poverty, rural and urban, and always has. There's no need to blame immigrants. And no, not all brown people are immigrants, or are even remotely so. That can be very confusing...to some people...who don't know much history.
5
@Paul
Baltimore has the second highest homicide rate, and top 5 in overall crime rate. Is it all the illegals up there in MD doing it? Doubtful.
2
@Bill
No, it's the Democrats who are responsible.
3
It’s great to watch Trumpists keep sliding their argument down the ol’ abacus.
First it was they commit more crime, then it was the studies showing they don’t are lib’rul commie lies, then it went to anyway, if there’s even one crime that’s more than we’d have had before.
Now we’re at hallucinating home-town crime stats or just plain lying about them, and a buncha “anyway, illegally crossing the border is a crime so there’s more crime, so there!”
Come on, kids. One more crazed slide, and you have created Freud’s TWO-bucket joke.
I know you can do it. Here, lemme help. Try, “And anyway, Fast and Furious was a CRIME that created more CRIME in our country so lock OBAMA up!!!”
5
In regards to the Southern border crisis a thousand young men will come across the US border in a caravan and the media takes a photo of that one woman with her baby and that is their front page news. That's how it works, that's how you frame the news from the extreme left position. It is so sad that the MSM cameras are not down at the border showing everyone what is really going on, maybe interviewing some border guards to get the real story. Rather than show and report what is really going on with boots on the ground journalism, a political perspective is framed and reported to obscure the realities.
16
@P McGrath Your comment has nothing to do with this article. I don't even see a picture of people anywhere in it. It's just stats. Remember, when a politician is teaching you to hate someone else, they are the ones who profit.
6
@P McGrath MSM cameras are, in fact at the border from time to time. They belong to Fox, which is inarguably one of the mainstream media, along with the others you had in mind.
1
@P McGrath - so you think the NY Times should do reporting like their weekly "Crossing The Border Newsletter"? Because they do. It's their "Crossing the Border Newsletter".
Here's the link to let you read the fourteen articles
https://www.nytimes.com/series/crossing-the-border?module=inline
Note that's not the entire set of their articles reported from the border. Here's another link with more articles like:
"In the Rio Grande Valley, the Border Patrol Is the ‘Go-To Job’"
and
"Border Officer’s Secret in Arizona: He Was Undocumented"
https://www.nytimes.com/search?query=border%20patrol&sort=best
4
People who break the law to enter US are committing crime - every one of them. Comparing them with legal citizens who may or may not commit crime is bogus science.
14
@Kopernnick Why is it bogus science? If you had to rate the severity of crimes being committed, what would you care about most? Violent crime? Property theft? Crossing a line in the sand?
7
@Kopernnick - it's a civil violation or a misdemeanor depending on the circumstances. It's not a crime.
Stealing a Social Security Number would be a crime. But that's different.
2
@Kopernnick
A core American value is respect for the law. Illegal immigrants violate this core principle the moment they enter the country. It's ludicrous to try and paint them as law-abiding when they are not. If they were, they'd wait in line like everyone else.
6
As long as sanctuary cities and counties exist which go to great lengths in obfuscating the relation between immigration status and crime, all such data analysis will be taken with a grain of salt. A better measure will be a count of MS13 members in US, which by all accounts is increasing rapidly.
12
@Barbarika Got a source for this MS13 comment? Sounds like political rhetoric and I can find absolutely nothing supporting what you stated.
7
@Barbarika: Most illegal immigrants are actually not from south of the border. They are Europeans or Asians who legally visited the US and then failed to go home when their time was up. The "MS13" claims are Trump lies.
3
@Barbarika - provide us the documentation on your claim - showing where "all accounts" of one gang's US membership is increasing. Please provide a grain of salt, since you don't appear to trust reality.
Please also give us an analysis that compares crime rates between sanctuary/non-sanctuary cities, tracking crime rates to number of undocumented immigrants. Since there are cities that aren't sanctuary cities, I'm sure you can find analyses you feel you personally can trust.
2
I suspect that there is no uptick in violent crime with illegal immigration, aside from any uptick that might occur from an increase in the number of young people in a given area (since most immigrants, legal and illegal tend to be young.)
On the other hand, I don't think for a minute that a study concluding that illegal immigration was associated with elevated violent crime rates would ever be published, either in a mainstream newspaper or even in an academic journal.
It's quite sad, but academics and journalists alike have brought this crisis of credibility upon themselves.
22
@Middleman MD
what is the basis of your attack and judgement?
its quite sad, but people who don't agree with facts today seem to look for to many "alternative facts" or beliefs to feel like they are correct even with overwhelming empirical data running against them....
7
@Middleman MD: I agree and that fact will hurt the Dems painfully in 2020. People are tired of the media obfuscating the subject with articles like this one.
5
Sorry, I don’t buy it...
Come to Sunnyside, Washington... It used to be a sleepy, agricultural town in central Washington State; gangs were unheard of, the city parks were where children could safely play. It’s now a drug-infested war zone - drive-by shootings are common.
I want ‘em gone...!
24
@William B. But in your conclusion you do not consider other factors that has caused 'a sleepy, agricultural town in central Washington' a motivator for increased crime you perceive. For example, increased population, general disorder in population over the decades, cheaper housing, unemployment driving a drug epidemic, lack of opportunities for younger people. Maybe tackling these issues may return your 'sleepy town' to the place it used to be. But never forget change is a constant in life.
9
@William B.
People plagued by gangs in the US get short shrift from democrats because Trump's been so vocal about gang violence. Gangs are a cancer in our country.
5
If the answer is no, why lead with the question?
@kgeographer Every scientific study starts with a question or hypothesis.
4
@Petrus Maximus
Of course, but the article reports on the result of a study. An more accurate headline would be "Study: No correlation between undocumented immigration and crime"
3
If Pew or Cato designed a study that turned out to show illegal immigration was correlated with an increase in crime, would they publish it? Would the Times report on it? Or would they redesign it until it yielded the desired outcome? It's sad but in today's world I simply can't believe anyone starts an inquiry such as this with an open mind and allows the data to take them to a conclusion. Ditto for climate studies. And by the way I'm generally anti-Trump, pro immigration and believe in human-caused climate change.
18
Why an interesting opinion piece. According to the United States Sentencing Commission, immigration crime was the most frequent offense in federal sentencing cases last year. Non-US citizens accounted for 43% of all federal offenders. It makes the narrative espoused in the article all the more interesting.
23
@rjs7777 Most crimes aren't federal crimes.
I always found this type of analysis insulting to Americans, and question why liberals consider this argument to hold any water. Causality or correlation coefficients don’t matter to the actual victims of crime committed by illegals. If illegals weren’t here, Kate Steinle, officer Singh and others (generally not covered by media) would be with us today. This isn’t a matter of statistical analysis, but an absolute number of victims. It might be more productive if Americans realized that we can be pro-immigration while defending citizens through sensible reforms and secure borders. That political enmity and collaborative media promote the opposite is also a crime.
28
@Alberto Abrizzi: You must be kidding. You take more chances on the road being killed by a drunk driver than by an illegal immigrant. Let's ban all drinkers for the few that drive drunk.
9
@Alberto Abrizzi
Perfectly said.
2
@DSS As someone whose car was in a head-on collision with a pickup truck driven by a Hispanic man who abandoned the truck and fled on foot to avoid being apprehended, I am a bit sensitive on that topic. He did have his immigration lawyer call the police detective to find out about my injuries a few weeks later, but never responded to questions.
That is someone who shouldn't have been here.
2
For all of those who are making the point that being in the US illegally is itself a crime, here are two further observations:
1. This article is about the correlation of VIOLENT crime and PROPERTY crime with legal status, and NOT about the crime of being here illegally. (The correlation of those crimes with legal/illegal status is basically zero, meaning people here legally and people here illegally commit those crimes at essentially the same rates.)
2. Most people who are here illegally arrived using a VISA, was admitted after passing a CBP checkpoint, and then ... OVERSTAYED THEIR VISA.
If we really want to hold down the number of illegals, we should have a better way to track people who come into the country using a visa, and make sure that they obey the law and the terms of their presence here under that visa.
On the other hand, we could go to a "police state" mentality, under which the police or CBP officers get to demand to see the papers of everyone, any time they want to. I DO NOT want to live under such a "police state" regime, even though I carry my passport card with me all the time. (It is helpful to get back home when I visit the RED states.)
7
@Joe From Boston
"Most people "?? are you sure of your statement? or you just conveniently cited some (fake) info?
2
Facts are that most undocumented immigrants overstated their visa (a civil offense and not a crime). https://www.npr.org/2019/01/16/686056668/for-seventh-consecutive-year-visa-overstays-exceeded-illegal-border-crossings
3
@Doug
Visa overstayers mostly enter with tourist or business visas.[29] In 1994, more than half[72] of illegal immigrants were Visa overstayers whereas in 2006, about 45% of illegal immigrants were Visa overstayers.[73]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_immigration_to_the_United_States#Visa_overstay
2
Aside from anti immigrant prejudice by some commentators, there is the severe lack of critical thinking skills by those people, especially no awareness that anecdotes are not data.
6
Good to know. So what's your point? We should simply take down the southern border and allow everyone in no questions asked ... even it it's 2/3 of Central America?
14
I don’t see how this could possibly be accurate especially in sanctuary cities. The nypd doesn’t check or ask status and doesn’t cooperate with ice. The same is likely for most of CA or any other sanctuary city. There may not be a direct causation found in the methods they used, but to argue that the ones that tried to bring 1,000lbs of meth over the border last week— that this doesn’t directly cause massive, gang related crime is burying their heads in the sand. If you tied this in those crime statistics you’d see these numbers double and triple quite quickly. I’d argue it’s passive crime related to illegal immigration. It may not be directly at the hands of “x” person, but “ x” persons drugs cause direct crime for “y” locals. People always ignore this but even if it’s only 10 percent of meth and fetnyl that’s not at check points but carried over that’s a ton of human casualties that will follow. Are the majority harmless yes of course, but please stop painting an inaccurate picture that this doesn’t harm America. Illegal immigration is not good for any country.
12
Crime is not just crime. Unpaid parking tickets are a crime, burglary is crime, as is rape
You need to break it down, to understand popular reaction
I can't comment on the US, as it does not publish the data, but in Germany, the statistics are
1. Crime , overall, is the same for citizens and immigrants
2. In violent crimes against women immigrants are
over represented by a factor 4 to 5, depending what
States (Laender) you look at
7
Is this "settled", like the "science" behind climate fanaticism? Where the weird 16-year-old wearing a shroud gives speeches here and there, and millions (OK, not millions -- but the papers would have us believe it was millions) turn out to worship her? Just like in medieval times, with their child saints?
Or is this another kind of "science", that serves somebody else's interests altogether?
@BostonReader
"the "science" behind climate fanaticism?"
The data on global warming and the correlation to the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air is pretty clear. In the past 400,000 years, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere never exceeded 300 parts per million. Today it exceeds 400 parts per million.
Annually averaged atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have generally increased year over year since the early 1800s -- the start of the widespread Industrial Revolution.
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6973
The average temperature correlates with the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Three things happen when the average temperature rises:
1. water evaporates faster.
2. warm air can hold more water vapor than colder air.
3. storms extract heat energy from the surfaces (water or land) that they cross, so warmer means more energy.
Add up 1, 2 and 3 and you get bigger, wetter stronger storms.
In my over 70 years of watching, it is evident that we are now seeing a lot more "bigger, wetter stronger storms."
Additionally, when things get warmer, ice melts faster. Glaciers all over the world are receding and diminishing in volume.
Mother Nature does not give one hoot what you or I think or believe. Mother Nature obeys the fundamental laws of physics and chemistry.
What does your observation of events tell you?
Get a clue - global warming is real (says the man with the PhD in chemistry).
5
@Joe From Boston - I'm sure that by "climate fanaticism" our friend BostonReader was referring to the bizarre claims by some that a vast increase in greenhouse gas concentrations won't produce an equivalent increase in the greenhouse effect - if and only if the greenhouse gas is emitted by human activities.
Believe it or not, there's a cult out there that promotes this belief that somehow nature can read a bar code or something on each GHG molecule, and ignore the ones that have been brought to the surface by fossil fuel companies.
I know, sounds totally unbelievable, but they never explain it in any detail - just this basic statement of their faith.
Sort of a cargo-cult thing where they confused the benefits of energy use with the harmful greenhouse gas by-product, and they keep trying to bring back some mythical golden age by emitting more gas.
Kind of sad.
Anna Flag wrote in this New York Times article:
"To create estimates, experts at Pew subtracted Department of Homeland Security counts of immigrants with legal status from the number of foreign-born people counted by the Census Bureau."
^ If true, the study itself is based on the flimsiest of methodologies and its conclusions are suspect.
9
@Sándor exactly! And tell us again how this is accurate if sanctuary cities police don’t check status of offenders? I just had an incident last week where I was scared to report what I saw because I was uncertain of this persons status. Then I had to call the nypd whom reassured me that they do not check status and do not cooperate with ice. I was shocked!
6
I definitely respect the quality of Jeffrey Passel's work. I do want to add a perspective. First, even though immigrants of whatever status have a lower rate of crime involvement, the fact is that if you have more people you will have more crimes committed. So in that sense, migration increases crime. Second, illegal 'work', just like legal work, is often structured by race and ethnicity. South Americans will be more likely to engage in drug smuggling across the southern border and, for example, in marijuana crops in national forests, than will Chinese migrants. The latter will be more likely to engage in corporate espionage. Migration, as Passel well knows, is both the result and cause of trade networks.
Also, in looking at shifting geographic compositions, what this research does not take into account is the geographic displacement of natives (see https://doi.org/10.1177/0003122410396197 for example) and the fact that crime has become more concentrated into certain neighborhoods than previously.
Most immigrants are hard-working decent people who just want better lives. That doesn't mean there aren't negative externalities.
5
@Melissa Martin More people = more crimes in your response. Let's go for a 0 birth rate.
4
@Melissa Martin
"If you have more people you will have more crimes committed."
perfect argument for not having kids.
3
@Melissa Martin citations needed. You clearly have no idea what sort of smuggling there is over water, through shipping containers from China and other areas.
1
Although I prefer to call 'your' illegai immigrants 'undocumented' one's, the matter of criminality (or not) seems clear, those undocumented are less inclined to break the law than 'the natives'. This stands to reason as well, as undocumented immigrants prefer to remain incognito for fear of being deported, however useful, and well adapted, in their new country.
7
Articles on immigrant crime always compare immigrant crime with native crime. As we are a high crime country when compared to Scandinavian and Asian countries, this is a pretty low bar. If propensity to commit crimes is how you want evaluate immigrants, why not encourage immigration from countries more law abiding people than our own country?
11
What absolute garbage. This is a lovely example of "agenda-driven analysis". Here's a simple fact: Illegals are 6x as likely as non-illegals to be in Federal prison.
https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/407312-one-in-five-us-prison-inmates-is-a-criminal-alien
16
@GeorgePTyrebyter the link you posted says "opinion"...
3
@GeorgePTyrebyter Federal being the operative word. Maybe you should understand sample bias before commenting on other people's work.
5
@GeorgePTyrebyter
That Hill article picks and chooses statistics from the GAO report and uses them out of context to paint a rather biased viewpoint.
2
I am an anti-gun liberal, but this article is no different than what the NRA would put out. In fact, we already can convert it to their use. Despite the increase in arms sales across the US over the period of the study, crime still fell. Thus, guns are not related to increased crime. Welcome to 21st century social sciences...find the facts that support your beliefs.
9
@DoctorRPP But in that case it is true - crime rates have been falling for decades while gun ownership has increased. Those data are incontrovertible, while this article is about agenda-driven 'research' meant to bolster the open borders policy that is the Democrats obvious but unspoken goal.
I was a liberal once, too.
3
@JBR
Incontrovertible?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-matter-how-you-measure-them-mass-shooting-deaths-are-up/
Here's the key phase: "After controlling for multiple socioeconomic factors,..." So in other words, illegal immigrants are not, as is often stated, no more likely to commit crimes than the average legal U.S. citizen, but rather they are no more likely to commit crimes when compared to similarly situated citizens. At the very least, that means they've manipulated the numbers to compare illegal immigrants to low income citizens, who are statistically much more likely to be arrested and convicted of a crime than the average American. Are they also "norming" the numbers race, sex, and age? The devil is in the details and I've too often seen academics and social justice warrior activists manipulate statistics to bring about their desired results to take at face value their assertions.
12
That "key phrase" was only talking about another local study. The bulk of the data presented doesn't factor in socioeconomic variables. In fact the data presented directly contradicts what you claim.
@Ed Kiernan
Exactly. In the period they examined, over 50% of illegal immigrants were in the high crime age of 20 to 34. Less than 10% of the U.S. population is in that high crime age/gender category.
This means that their data is questionable at best.
4
@Ryan Keast The data I saw simply indicated that cities with large numbers of illegal immigrants didn't experience a noticeable increase in crime. Interesting, but it doesn't prove anything. Maybe those cities had strong economies that both attracted the migrants and provided economic opportunities that tend to reduce crime rates? I could think of a dozen other scenarios that might account for the statistics, that don't rule out illegal immigrants on a per capita basis committing more crime than the average American.
I don't have a grudge against most illegal immigrants who just want to come here to work hard. I just don't trust the studies done by activists, especially when their results fly in the face of obvious contradictory evidence, such as the overwhelming make up of many gangs being of hispanic origin. Make your case for this being a nation of immigrants, but don't lie or mislead the public about the facts.
2
Please ...would everybody relax.....the Mexican population is rapidly aging......the same will happen soon with Central America ……...
One thing is certain. Illegal immigrants are committing one crime each and every time they cross into our country. That is the crime of illegal entry. They know they are breaking our laws openly and brazenly and yet they do so anyway.
It may be questionable whether they commit more crimes, but one thing is fact. If they were not here illegally, this crime would never have occurred and there would not be an innocent victim.
Illegal immigration must end. Most people do not want illegals in our country. They are not against immigration just illegal immigration,
14
The issue with this, like many others (think Trade) are that when a violent crime does exist it tends to be very acute whereas the benefits, or non-issues are very disperse.
The Acute store is easy to understand and listen to - the disperse benefits are hard to quantify and explain.
Therefore in the minds of most people small acute > large disperse.
It's a similar question to: What's worse taking .10 from 20,000 people or taking $1,000 from one person?
2
@Ben
As is the idea that even if you break the law, as long as there's enough political support, you should keep breaking it?
2
@JW
At it's core, it's a supply and demand issue. We designed our labor system such that it needed illegal immigrants in the 80's & 90's - and forced those hiring them to accept the price points we expected to pay for such goods. And at that time, illegal crossings were illegal like driving above the speed limit is illegal.
The problem came when we did a huge crack-down without addressing the underlying issue (again acute vs. complex & diffuse) and made crossings harder without addressing the high demand for their labor & low expect cost of the goods and services the labor produced. That's when people stayed (a Clinton Law) vs. returning home after earning their wages.
If you want to put it in those terms, it's most analogous to - your city has now decided it will strictly enforce speeding and put in speed cameras - sure you'll stop speeding, but now along with that - they're going to go through your google maps data and give you tickets for all the times you sped in the past.
There is no question that some of the arguments advanced by the anti-illegal immigrant crowd are less valid than others. That doesn't diminish the fact that those who cross our borders illegally have no right to do so.
At this pace, we will have half of Central America here and it will be too late to stop this invasion. Better start teaching Spanish to our kids - as if they still had a choice in a country that will someday be bilingual.
11
@Chevy Half of Central America? I guess the President will need to open more golf courses
2
@Chevy Too late. This country doesn't have an official language so technically we're already multi-lingual. We're doomed.
However, as entertaining as this article is to read, it doesn't support anything. I don't even think the author was making a point except that there's no statistical link. I was annoyed how he glossed over the increase in murder rate as "effectively zero". That's true except for the people who were killed and there's a logical disconnect if that number isn't as important as the effect of illegals on crime.
1
@Chevy Press One for English.
1
Effective border control prevents crime. That undocumented workers commit crimes at the same rate as citizens is beside the point. If they weren't here in the first place, the harm they cause would not have occurred. Ask my cousin. He'll try to answer you, but his brain was so severely damaged in an automobile collision caused by undocumented and intoxicated worker it will be hard for him to speak.
14
They are not undocumented, they are here contrary to law so they are properly called illegals. And if they are here illegally, then even 1 crime is one too many.
13
I have been in proximity of plenty of illegal immigrant workers down here in Arizona.
Alas, this is merely anecdotal evidence and not data as stated in the article.
But let me tell you, most of these immigrants work like dogs, and try very hard to fly under the radar of the authorities. Simply put, they want to stay here. Hence, they go out of their way to not commit crimes and they avoid the administrations of government programs.
5
@Wordsworth from Wadsworth
I'm glad you said that. Surely, the absolute best way of being identified as an illegal would be to get arrested. If I was working hard to stay under the radar, I'd stay well clear of the police.
1
I believe these analyses, but also believe they miss a point.
One can examine two kinds of variables: (1) rates of crime by undocumented immigrants, and (2) number of crimes committed by undocumented immigrants. For the second type of variable, any increase in population is going to result in an increase in crime, so if there are more undocumented immigrants there will be more people who are victims of crimes, regardless of whether the rate of committing them is less for undocumented immigrants.
Liberals look at the first type of variable and conservatives look at the second variable.
In essence, both are correct, but are using different comparisons. Neither are "wrong."
I would like to see someone, anyone, create an argument about crime and undocumented immigrants that uses both types of variables. I think I'll be waiting a long time, though, because the issue is political, not scientific.
4
If the population goes up but crime rate goes down, then the chance that you or a friend will be a victim of a crime will go down.
What population would you rather be part of:
A population of 10 where 1 violent crime is committed per year, or
A population of 10,000 where two crimes are committed?
Crime rate is the more relevant statistic than actual number of crimes.
@DKSF
You are not understanding the 2nd statistic I am referring to. It is a meaningful one, yet you are dismissing it as being irrelevant. If there are 3 million fewer people in the US then I am less likely to be a victim of crime....simply because there are fewer people to commit the crime.
But thank you for proving my point.
Sorry, I don't believe progressive liberal groups like The Marshall Project, or Ms. Flagg, on this matter. They have their minds made up to be pro-undocumented before even researching and writing. And, how can crimes committed by undocumented people, who go to lengths to hide themselves from local authorities, ICE and tax agencies and are likely to be paid in under the table, untraceable cash, even be studied fairly compared to easy-to-trace citizens and permanent residents? Why, for instance, do women in some neighborhoods in L.A. fear deportation so much they don't report domestic abuse by their male partners -- doesn't that affect crime statistics?
These are the same progressives who for political purposes are trying to prevent the U.S. Census from even attempting to count undocumented persons in this country. How does that comport with honest, unbiased research inquiries? They don't even know how many undocumented people there are, yet use flawed Census figures to serve as the basis for their conclusions. Why can't they see how Americans might be skeptical about their and similar-minded researchers' findings on this issue?
11
Was there evidence of an increase in crime when the Italians immigrated, when the irish immigrated, when the swedes and norwegians immigrated, when the germans and the polish immigrated? The hope of 99.9% of immigrants is to build an honest better life. It used to be that anyone who wanted to could immigrate to the US. That has changed, but the goals of the immigrants have not.
8
Anger with immigrants and most tribal conflicts are about money and competition for it and other resources. If a group feels threatened by another group economically they will create a narrative that dehumanizes the other group- that is just what human beings tend to do and have always done.
Professionals without out any fear for their jobs can afford to be sanguine about illegal immigration- the cheap labor is a boon for them, but if you are someone who makes their living behind a cash register or doing any lower skill work you might have another perspective.
Same thing if you are living in a poor neighborhood that is experiencing an influx of immigrants with children taking chairs in the public schools. There is a good chance the resources are being taken from your kids to serve the immigrants because they aren't paying enough in rent to bring property tax revenue high enough to pay for the schooling of their children.
If you feel these "invaders" are reducing your opportunity for a fair wage or a good education for your children you will likely readily believe anything a Trump says that insults the people you consider a threat.
We need to understand the plight of all of our citizens just as much as the plight of immigrants.
12
@alan haigh
"If you feel these "invaders" are reducing your opportunity for a fair wage or a good education for your children you will likely readily believe anything a Trump says that insults the people you consider a threat. "
How true! you nailed it because if these folks complaining about immigrants taking their jobs could/would read they might actually understand that it is corporations automating their work that is taking their jobs and not immigrants at all. A cashier is quickly become an automated function as you see in numerous big-box stores like HDepot already. The same holds true for the fast-food industry. It is automating food prep as fast as it possibly can. Their anger would be better directed at the CEOs making these decisions.
1
Causality is not relevant. If an alien enters the US illegally or commits a crime while in the US, he or she should not have the privilege of remaining in the US. Other countries take the same position and the US is well-within its rights to take the same position.
11
Does this research include the unlawful behavior of being in the U.S. illegally as well? Or is that conveniently omitted?
8
@JDK
That would be a bit pointless, wouldn't it? I mean, 100% of the people you studied would be criminals. Which would rather seem to confirm a fairly strong link between illegal status and criminality.
I guess some people would like a study report like that..
2
@JDK It is addressed in the article.
@JDK. Yes, and since undocumented does not mean they are here illegally, what exactly is the point of the article? Unless, of course, undocumented is just a PC term like products of conception that is used to skew the discussion at the outset.
Lost on the author of this piece is that being here illegally is already breaking the law.....i.e. a crime. If they hadn't committed that first crime, then none of the other crimes in these stats that they later committed would've occurred.
Also, they are not undocumented immigrants. They are illegal aliens. Stop trying to reduce the social stigma of committing a crime by changing the language surrounding the act.
10
@Drew
The lack of logic here is stunning.
Similar logic has been used to justify the denial of human rights so many, many times before.
1
@Chickpea What lack of logic? Drew was 100% correct.
And since when is it a human right to sneak into another country, expecting health and other social services while taking jobs and/or undermining the wages of citizens? Do you think that Mexico and Central America or any other country would tolerate millions of Americans and Canadians invading their countries?
1
@Chickpea
There is no lack of logic. There is the law. We are either a nation of laws or one run by mob rule. I prefer the former. No one has a right to come here. It isn’t a right. It is a privilege and one we can and should be selective to whom we confer.
1
“It’s a widely held perception”. Actually that’s only because the news reports lies from the president and the Republicans. Just because some candidate of (worse) member of Congress repeats the talking point doesn’t mean that it should be a headline nor repeated without stating the lie. Thank you for valid research on the topic
Undocumented immigrants (aka illegal aliens) are by definition criminals. That is, they are in this country illegally.
Americans welcome LEGAL immigrants, but do not want ILLEGAL immigrants. They recognize that the US cannot afford (or choose not) to support our own citizens: the poor, the ill, elderly, disabled, veterans, et al., and that they and other US taxpayers cannot possibly support the hundreds of millions of foreigners who would like to come here.
US laws allow foreigners to seek entry and citizenship. Those who do not follow these laws are in this country illegally and should be detained and deported; this is policy in other countries, too.
The cruelty lies not in limiting legal immigration, or detaining and deporting illegal immigrants, or forcing those who wish to enter the US to wait for processing. What is cruel, unethical and probably illegal is encouraging parents to bring their children on the dangerous trek to US borders and teaching the parents how to game the system to enter the US by falsely claiming asylum, persecution, etc. Indeed, many believe bringing children on such perilous journeys constitutes child abuse.
No other nation has open borders, nor should the US.
9
Reality doesn't matter if there is an emotiona! need to fear/hate "them." Same re Jews in Germany 1930s, held responsible for all the ills in Germany.
If one black or brown immigrant kills someone, thats all it takes. Meanwhile, hundreds of murders by white native born Americans, that goes down as an individual tragic incident.
6
I think the only difference between citizens and legal residents (green carders) is that the latter are somewhat more law abiding citizens (pun intended). I know, I used to be one of them.
@PaulN
I'd say most of the conflict arises from failure/ refusal to assimilate and an ignorance of local laws customs. Key areas of conflict with citizens are generally not violent property crime- domestic abuse, sexual assault and hate crimes come readily to mind, but are not documented here in this study. Yet, I'd venture to guess those are the key areas of conflict.
That and, with regards to immigration, there is a global mental shift:
Immigration used to be a rather permanent thing. People came here with no guarantee of a better life, it was a hope, an opportunity, and most struggled to become American. People changed languages and names - all to be American. Even former slaves and indentured servants found no reason to leave, because this was, for better or worse, an identity. There was no 'other' countries to go. Many newer immigrants come with the intention of making money and leaving, so much so that the national perception of immigration has changed.
Both Obama and Romney defined the American Dream as 'getting ahead.' Yet there are currently a wealth of democracies with 'global citizen' attitudes. People immigrate for the sake of money and do not stay or assimilate, from here to Germany to Saudi Arabia. The USA is longer the only source of democracy or even economic opportunity. If anything, we can be More discriminating as to who we allow entry, because we are no longer denying freedom, life or wealth with refusal.
That is an enormous, global, mental shift.
@elle You may be right in many cases but I fully assimilated. Here is the proof: I love LeBron and hate Trump.
@PaulN P.S. Okay, I admit there are areas where I failed to assimilate. E.g., I am unable to forget the 4 languages that I spoke before I learned English. Also, despite serious efforts, I can still find Switzerland on the map.
More emotion. Waaaaaa waaaaa. The "poor" "undocumented". Booo hooo.
They have committed a crime by coming in without following proper protocol.
They're here ILLEGALLY. Which, for the crybabies, they have broken the law. They are criminals.
Play all the misdemeanor/non-violent excuses games you wish...
They have broken the law. Keep them out and, if they break through, send them back.
10
So many uninsured illegal drivers in California that car insurance is a fortune...one hits you and disappears. You will never collect.
Try to send your children to the local public school- not a great idea if you want them to get a decent education- so many classes are remedial due to language barriers.
I won’t even go into the burdens on the health care system.
Illegal immigration is not benign.
15
@Jennifer - Yu bring up an interesting point about insurance.
People like to say these undocumented workers just want the jobs no one here will do. Well, if I could start a landscaping business without a business license, drive the vehicle without paying insurance, or pay business taxes believe me, I would start one today. But for some reason my government cracks down on me when I do these things.
7
Remarkable how many "law and order" types start commenting when the subject of undocumented immigrants comes up. I'm sure these people all drive at or below the speed limit on the highway, right? And as far as the fraud argument goes, have these people paid any attention to the Trump family tax shenanigans that have been extensively laid out by the NYT and others? I wouldn't be surprised if tax fraud by Trump and his ilk accounts for more lost $ than any welfare/benefits fraud committed by those "illegals".
3
Illegal aliens, or what you pretend are merely undocumented immigrants, surely do commit crimes. Perhaps no more than any other group of people, but that is still crime we would not have if they were not here. And the horrific crimes committed by MS-13 are not documented by quantified results. So why print this distorting, slanted article? It's opinion, not news. Not fit to print.
8
@Grittenhouse, What do you mean MS-13 crimes aren't documented?
The analysis is questionable.
When Maricopa County illegal immigration populations peaked in 2007, murder was 100% higher than in 2015 and automobile theft was 200% higher. That's 150 extra murders per year and 16,000 more cars stolen per year in one county.
Now, that we appear to be going soft on illegal immigration again, those crime rates are on the march again.
70
@John Huppenthal what's your source for those questionable numbers? Also, one county is not a valid sample size. It's like saying everyone is Arizona loves Fox News because someone from Chandler loves Fox News.
10
@John Huppenthal citation, please.
2
@John Huppenthal
So the article says that almost all areas had a decrease in crime between 2007 and 2015. Maybe the decrease in Maricopa is simply part of the wider trend and not connected with the size of the illegal population. If you have not studied the numbers personally, you are simply guessing with regard to cause and effect, and your guess is likely highly influenced by your personal feelings about illegal immigrants.
5
I'm of the belief that most illegal immigrants don't want to be deported. Normally these folks are very careful not to become known.
5
@Elida Norie Beliefs have no bearing on facts. That may be true of many, but it has no bearing on crime. Criminals think they will get away with it.
3
Apparently, the study disregards the crime of using stolen Social Security numbers. If a U.S. citizen misappropriates a Social Security number, it is a felony; for the more than one million illegal immigrants, it isn't an issue.
31
@Sharon and yet they do not even benefit from it. apparently you were not aware of that.
1
@Judy Hill
It gets them their job -- that's the benefit.
1
What a hollow comparison that completely misses the point.
The point is, how much is it costing us to keep these illegals now and what will be the forward social costs of what is ultimately an aging population.
13
Good news but this seems to conflict with other studies, e.g. https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/407312-one-in-five-us-prison-inmates-is-a-criminal-alien (20 percent of a federal prisoners are' criminal' aliens).
Perhaps a more profound effect of illegal immigration is that (also according to Pew) almost all join the lowest income quintile with their needs, 3.2 people per illegal resdient, earning about half of what citizens and legal immigrants earn. In other words illegal immigration almost exclusively swells that demographic.
9
@GSBoy There is no conflict. What you linked to is an example of "selection bias". The demographic distribution of current inmates tells you a lot about the current demographic distribution of current inmates, but very little about the population outside of prisons. This data suggests that outside of prison undocumented immigrants tend to bring down violent crime rates. The other study suggests that if you are already a criminal, you're more likely to be locked away if you are also an illegal immigrant.
2
@GSBoy
Crime, as most people understand it, is a local matter prosecuted under state law, not federal. The elements of codified in each jurisdiction's state code and statutes. Murder,rape, kidnapping, burglary, robbery, etc
Criminal prosecutions are different in that they involve federal law, and not common criminal law as we know it. Federal prosecutions usually involve things like immigration, large-scale drug violations and racketeering.
Also, quantitatively speaking, federal convicts of criminal law are a small fraction of those convicted under state law.
Thus, it's really not helpful to examine illegal immigration and crime by looking at federal law. It's a distortion.
2
What struck me the most in this article was the incredible bias in the crimes considered.
This article ignored domestic assault and abuse, hate crimes, child abuse rape prostitution and focused on... property?
Fine, I will focus on property.
No illegal immigrant will report the gang that trafficking them here taking a cut, or that their weeks' pay got beaten out of them by some thug. If the assault was particularly bad, you had best search for your immigrant crime statistics in the local ER.
I'd be far more interested if the homes in an area that uses illegal domestic labor (or spotters) suddenly had break ins and robberies. But that crime wave would be in the 'American community' as per this study.
Poor people don't have too much grand larceny in their communities. What are you stealing? My weekly $500 from my SOD that I share hotbunk with 4 other guys? Since the money is off the books I cant prove it ever existed. Do I report a stolen toothbrush/ towel? Seriously?
News flash: when an area becomes dirt poor it has fewer home break-ins, insider trading, and Lexus theft.
13
@elle What is an SOD?
1
@GreginNJ
A SOD is a Single Occupancy Dwelling. A sadly antiquated term since finding one now is as rare as hen's teeth. A room with a tap, a drain, and a hotplate has become a luxury item.
And by the way, frequently a violation of housing codes. Another group profiting off of illegal immigration. It is not the fault of the immigrant, but how many do you think call the local government to report housing violations?
It is much more common now to hotbunk several in a room, which is when you rent a bed for about 50 to a couple hundred a week for a few hours and someone else sleeps in it when you are not. So, I might work nights and sleep 8 am to 5 PM and you get the bed 8pm to 6am.
Lots of petty theft and sexual assault, as you can well imagine. Disease and fire risk...
Even though I made light of it: losing your towel and toolbelt could utterly destroy someone living hand to mouth, but you'd never get that police report. So I think this study is nonsense.
2
According to its website, "The Marshall Project is a nonpartisan, nonprofit news organization that seeks to create and sustain a sense of national urgency about the U.S. criminal justice system."
Sounds like they have an agenda to push, and The Upshot gave them a platform. I suspect confirmation bias in the study.
15
@Liberty hound
I suspect the bias is yours since you don't agree with research findings. Perhaps you have research that proves otherwise??
7
@Liberty hound: With no reason given for this suspicion, it sounds just as likely that "Liberty hound" has an agenda to push, and confirmation bias in operation. It's worth noting that confirmation bias is a real thing, but it doesn't influence the kind of information presented on the charts here. The statistics are real, and carefully explained, and show what they show. Confirmation bias is about what statistics you choose to pay attention to, and which ones you choose to ignore, maybe because they look "suspicious".
4
@Liberty hound
I suppose I might suspect confirmation bias had I read reports on Fox News that there is indeed a connection between undocumented immigrants and crime.
But the NY Times isn't the antithesis of Fox News, and most studies reflect similar findings as the study analysis reported here.
So, with all due respect, I suspect your comment has a certain amount of bias built in as well.
As does mine.
P.S. - it's a sentence on their website, not a clear indication of some liberal plot to overthrow America.
Who knows. Maybe you support prisons for profit?
I do not. And 'innocent until proven guilty' applies to any person walking on the soil of these United States.
So preconception matters.
2
The purpose of laws against illegal immigration is to reduce illegal immigration, not crime rates in urban areas. So the issue of whether crime rates rise or fall due to illegal immigrations is ancillary to the illegal immigration debate.
However, one thing is certain: crimes committed by illegal immigrants would not have been committed if the illegal immigrants who committed them had never crossed the border. A person murdered by an illegal immigrants might have been murdered by someone else, but that is highly unlikely.
All violations of laws are crimes. Illegal immigration is a crime. Immigration cases are tried in immigration courts because charges are dropped when defendants agree to voluntarily accept deportation, as almost all do. Federal prosecutors also arrange for state persecutor to drip criminal charges against deportees who agree retry deportation.
Crime rates would be lower among illegal immigrants than native-born Americans because few illegal immigrants are repeat offenders. After deportation, they are no longer around to commit crimes.
The United States has more than 11 million unauthorized immigrations and of them have committed crimes by entering the county illegally, overstaying their visa, posing as U.S. citizens to gain employment, and working without authorization in the United States.
26
@William Case
And valuable services rendered by, lives saved by, taxes paid by, crimes prevented by, illigsl immigrants also would not happen. Meanwhile, crimes committef by citizens would not have happened if we just locked everybody up.
1
@William Case. "crimes committed by illegal immigrants would not have been committed if the illegal immigrants who committed them had never crossed the border." There's also a lot of fruitful and productive work that never would have gotten done, crops that would never have been harvested, babies that would not have been cared for properly, etc. Whether they're here legally or not don't overlook their significant contributions to our society.
3
@William Case
I agree that the crime issue should be ancillary to the immigration debate. The problem is that the President and Fox News have made crime the central issue in the debate. And it is exceedingly disingenuous to keep pointing out that all illegal immigrants have committed a crime by entering the country. That is a given and adds nothing to the debate.
My wife was sitting at a stop sign when she was hit broadside by an illegal immigrant driving a pickup he had purchased for cash. He drove away, making it a hit and run. Bystanders in a grocery store parking lot saw the gruesome nature of the accident and chased him down. As a result of the accident we cannot have any more children. She was an avid runner and we cannot run anymore, bike anymore, scuba dive or any other actives we enjoyed together. No link between illegal immigrants and crime? Nonsense.
171
@William Kiper. I'm genuinely sorry for what happened to you and your wife. However, a single incident is not a comprehensive data set, which is what was examined here. It also did not specify that illegal immigrants commit *no* violent crime, just that the rate is generally similar to the remainder of the population.
248
@William Kiper If this story is true, it is about one illegal immigrant, not all. How many Americans have been charged with hit and run?
157
@William Kiperif she’s sitting at a stop sign, how was she broadsided? So the person was driving sideways through the parallel lane and then drove off. I used to do accident reconstruction and this doesn’t sound accurate. That being said, your wife could sue her own car insurance company and traffic accidents are not crimes.
If this is true, it seems like an extremely freak accident and has little to do with the person’s status as a citizen.
114
"For undocumented immigrants, being arrested for any reason would mean facing eventual deportation"
It's so cute that you believe that.
You probably also believe that crashing your car without license, registration, or insurance hasn't been decriminalized.
8
If by "undocumented immigrants" the writer means illegal aliens entering this country in violation of the existing immigration laws, the connection is 100%. Each and every such person is committing a felony by not abiding by the rules that Congress put in place long before the current President was elected. Who knew that own laws were really only suggestions to be observed when convenient. And does this casual attitude also apply to sexual assault prohibitions?
10
@James - Actually, it is not a felony to illegally cross our border. It should be and rather than deport back to their country they should be thrown into an American jail.
1
Every single violent crime committed by illegal aliens is preventable by enforcing immigration laws. The same cannot be said about citizens who commit such crimes. That's the issue, not that illegal commit more crimes. Failure to enforce immigrant laws kills.
10
@natal and every single good thing too. And at what cost?
1
A thought experiment suggests why the rate of murders rose slightly but the other rates dropped in areas in which there were increased numbers of illegal aliens: the reporting of all the other crimes is essentially discretionary - an illegal alien who is the victim of a burglary or who knows of a burglary may well chose not to report it.
On the other hand, the failure to report a murder is much less likely due to the severe nature and consequence of the crime - including the existence of the evidence of the crime (either the dead body or the disappeared person).
It is reasonable therefore to speculate that all crimes rose with the advent of illegal aliens, but there appeared to be a lessening for those category of crimes whose reporting is discretionary. This suggests another societal detriment to the presence of illegal aliens: they as a group are less likely to report crimes ....
6
Wait a minute. Your method subtracts legal immigrants from all foreign born persons to get an estimate of the illegal immigrant population. How do you count naturalized US citizens?
2
@Ken Gallant: Those would be among the legal immigrants.
1
If you are an illegal immigrant who "came here to work", you are committing a crime every single week by either using someone else's social security (identity theft) or being paid under the table and avoiding employment and income taxes.
There is no such thing as an illegal immigrant working for compensation in America without committing a crime. It's simply not possible.
15
@Baron95: But the article is about theft and violence: the kind of thing everyone means when they talk about a high crime neighborhood. You know, the kind of thing Donald Trump talks about, trying to suggest, falsely, that problems of violence in this country can only be solved by building his wall. He's not talking about paperwork, he's talking about the kind of crime that people are scared of. And he's lying about who is responsible for most of it.
So, wait...the president is lying to us?
6
Why do you guys want them here so badly, just because Donald Trump? Are you saving money off their labor in your yards, or do you have a crew of strawberry pickers that you sub-contract out? The great majority of them work under the table, are you OK with them paying no state or federal taxes, while using the Emergency Room as a doctor's offic, meanwhile, we wait in crowded waiting rooms, seeing how sick we can get....and I get NOTHING for free. Affordable Housing shortage. How is the rental market in your area? It's out of hand here, $2000-$3000 for a 3 bedroom house. How is an unchecked population growing at 100,000 plus per month going to help that? It's not.
11
@BorisRoberts
No couple making less than $24K per year pays federal income taxes (std deduction). Everyone who drives pays fuel tax, everyone who eats or buys clothes pays sales tax. Someone, owner or landlord, pays the property tax which pays a majority of the local school budget. The idea that they pay no taxes is wrong.
Full ER's is the old USA system when millions and millions of US citizens did not have healthcare insurance and thus dumped their medical bills on those of us who did have insurance.
Lots of citizens, don't work, pay no taxes and get free medical care. There are many reasons to stop illegal immigration, but there is no need to stretch the facts.
5
@BorisRoberts
I am not sure where exactly you get your information but a great many undocumented immigrants do not work under the table. They work regular jobs like you and I. And they pay payroll taxes .
In Seattle, it is the homeless and the working poor who use the Emergency Room as a doctor's office. Only because they have no affordable health insurance, as is the case in most cities across this country. I find it embarassing that we can affored billions of dollars for a fence or wall or whatever but we can't afford preventive care for the most neglected and poor of our citizens.
And to your last point, the West Coast is a desirable place to live due to a variety of factors. Most major west coast cities HAVE housing shortages. Also, roughly 1/3 of the countries population lives in CA, OR & WA. There are great swaths of this country that are empty, deserted or fast becoming ghost towns. Our birth rate is down and eventually we will need more people to sustain our country.
1
@BorisRoberts, Actually, I would like to see all those employing improperly (illegal) people thrown in prison for a few years. How about enforcing the "rule of law" on the demand side of the immigration equation. You can bet that if a few owners and some of your neighbors went to jail for hiring these folks, far fewer people would come.
6
As illegal immigration is itself a crime, each illegal present represents a minimum of one crime.
Further, in terms of crimes that illegals commit on other illegals, those which go unreported, (likely most of them), represent an under-reporting of actual crime rates in the communities they are part of.
5
@William Kiper,
So should I blame all white people after a white woman slammed into the back of our vehicle injuring me and a spouse?
4
This article seems to have been written with a certain agenda - to debunk the argument that illegal immigration leads to more crime (e.g. MS13).
It is true that illegal immigrants go out of their way to be law abiding because they risk getting deported. However, their kids, who grow up poor and seeing their parents suffer, often, harbor deep resentment, and commit crime, since they are not in danger of getting deported, only sent to prison. In that way, illegal immigration does contribute to higher crime eventually - but you will not see academics like this author research this.
9
@RR
I can't help, but wonder what your agenda is. Generalizing 1st generation immigrants as poor. resentful, and a greater threat to society seems rather xenophobic.
4
@RR: Not really, though. That would still show up as a correlation between illegal immigration and high crime, whether it was the parents or the kids. Kids grow up harboring resentment, but it is just as likely among any generation.
Not really. I am not saying that illegal immigrants tend to be more prone to crime. But because they tend to be poor in general, the second generation may find themselves increasingly turning to crime.
It's often overlooked that one big & obvious difference between migrants & crime is that no legal immigrant had committed a crime the minute they arrived in the US. Illegal immigrants have already clocked up one crime the moment they cross the border without the authority to do so, first timers commit a misdemeanour, repeat offenders commit a felony. Visa over stayers commit a civil offence. Not exactly an ideal way to start life in a new country, I would suggest.
8
Another question:
Do illegal immigrants displace low-skill citizen workers in the workforce and therefore decrease workforce participation rates and increase criminality among that low-skill population?
8
No.
4
@ML
Good thought
1
ML
In central Washington state there are hundreds of $15/ hr jobs that no native people care to do.
Without H2a guest workers and “ illegals” your food doesn’t get to your table.
Like many other communities we are plagued by opioid addiction and excess numbers of guns. Legal or not we all suffer these modern scourges.
Chew on that
2
Simply by crossing the border unauthorized and evading the US Customs Department - means that every undocumented
immigrant has broken US Law.
Many consider breaking a federal law to be a crime...the fact that it is not a violent crime is an entirely different matter. All US Laws that are in effect should be followed. If we don't like the law then perhaps our legislatures should spend more ti me legislating than going on wild goose chases seeking to discredit Clinton, Trump or whoever holds the presidency.
12
Well, of course you mean except for the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, our laws guarenteeing refugees decent treatment and a fair hearing, our laws against insider trading, our laws against torture, our laws against....
7
@brodymom
tell it to trump.
he routinely ignores the laws of this country, including the Constitution.
Jailing three year olds in cages is an international crime and consorting with enemy countries like Russia is treason.
So it;s difficult to worry about families crossing the border.
6
@brodymom
Its still a misdemeanor. Its not a capital offense. Its not a gateway offense to worse ones. How many stop signs have you not stopped at the last two months? How many times have you failed to signal while changing lanes, turning a corner the last two months? Which puts more people in potential danger then any five illegal immigrants.
And give Mitch McConell a call and ask him why he refuses to allow dozens of pieces of legislative proposals every month from ever reaching the floor...?!
Mitchie-poo is the number 1 reason for our Do-Nothing Congress. The single biggest legislative blockage in US history.
4
Do undocumented immigrants commit the specified crimes at a higher rate than the citizen (+ legal immigrant) population?
No
Do undocumented immigrants commit crimes specified in the study and therefore raise the total number of crimes specified in the study?
Yes
Does the study look at all crimes?
No
Chances are that ideologues will disregard or minimize the first or last two above questions.
7
@ML Which segment of the population is most susceptible to human trafficking? Legal or illegal immigrants?
3
Every time an undocumented drives a car he or she is breaking the law. And, most undocumented do drive.
Perhaps License requirements should be changed.
12
The USA have the highest violent crime rate per capita in the world by far . 6 times more than the European average ( Europe being more dense ).
Also 6 times more the incarceration rate than in Europe. And still the shameful last industrialized nation not to have still abolished the death penalty in 2020 . And far from doing it.
4
@JPH - I just checked and your first sentence is way off.
1
Not in the first generation. They are too busy working. But health broken by underpaid work, they are disproportionately represented in the ER, and burdened with too many children, its these kids, the second generation, undermployed, bitter, discriminated against who are disproportionately represented in gangs and crime.
11
@scientella
Any evidence?
1
@scientella Untrue. Second generation immigrants commit crimes at a rate that's quite similar to native-born americans. They aren't disproportionately represented at all, they simply catch up to the rest of us.
2
you should do the same research with GOP voters...just asking!
5
I think it's important to note that no commenters (that I've seen) are in favor of illegal immigration but that many are opposed to talking nonsense about immigration. That's an important distinction.
27
@Stan Sutton
"talking nonsense about immigration"???
"talking nonsense" would, of course, include,
incessantly describing them as "undocumented".
They are illegal aliens.
"Aliens" because they are foreigners -- not American.
"Aliens", as from another country.
That's exactly what the word "alien" means: "other".
The proper English word sticks in your craw?
Then try Chinese: "wai ren" -- outsider
Or Spanish: "extranjero" - stranger.
"Illegal" because not legally authorized to be here.
Just like a quack --
an "undocumented" doc wannabe --
no pretty "paper" to hang on the wall --
no medical license --
because not authorized to practice medicine --
and therefore illegal.
Or as in, parking illegally -- in an unauthorized spot.
Subject to being ticketed and/or towed away.
And if parked illegally today,
then, even if the ticket is paid
and the tow-away charges are paid,
that is not a free pass to park there again tomorrow,
and if you do park there again tomorrow,
your car can be ticketed again,
and towed away again.
6
@sam finn: I'm a little perplexed by your response. I think you could have stated your essential point in a sentence or two that practically everyone here would have agreed with.
This article is worthless. It is not statistically accurate and besides the point. Should we base our acceptance of undocumented immigrants on the fact that they don’t commit more crimes than the average American citizen? Is it fine to overstay your visa or cross the border illegally if you are in some way better (smarter, healthier, stronger, more law abiding, etc.) than the average American? Of course not. Undocumented immigrants should not be here - period.
39
@Marie Seton
It's debunking a myth. That is it's purpose.
Just because they don't cause more crime would not be a reason to let them remain here illegally nor provide amnesty - not to me. But myths should be debunked, people should make decisions based on facts, and this is providing facts. Those are good things, whether they fit or do not fit my political positions.
And I strongly oppose amnesty of any kind and want illegal immigration curtailed - preferably the most effective way - full enforcement of eVerify with massive fines for businesses that ignore it.
11
@Marie Seton
As a teacher of a few undocumented immigrants and of many children of undocumented immigrants, as a close friend of several undocumented immigrants, I cannot but wholeheartedly agree. We need to find ways to get them the documents they need, but the problem there is 100% administrative, and your solution (kick them out) is existential.
3
@Marie Seton
This article is agnostic on the questions of how to treat our immigrant population, documented or not.
It should inform fact and evidence-based citizens. The conclusions I reach from this evidence are:
1. Our immigrants by and large commit slightly fewer crimes per person than those born here.
2. Undocumented iimmigrants criminal activity appears to be the same as those with "papers".
3. Decisions on a proper immigration policy should be made on issues other than criminal activity.
4. Politicians and pundits who use alleged crimininality of undocumented immigrants (or documented immigrants) to justify any immigration policy are liars. It is likely their policy and legal positions are not honestly motivated, and are assuredly not motivated by reality.
If a politician is using lies to generate anger and hatred and bad policy they do not deserve any support and will get none from me.
(Logically, someone who is in the US without documentation should be strongly motivated to avoid criminal activity, since even a routine traffic stop can often result in deportation.)
7
I find it unfortunate that the author uses the term "undocumented immigrants", which is a misleading euphemism for "illegal aliens". More importantly, the author misses the point regarding illegal aliens. And the point is that entering the country illegally is unlawful, and therefore a crime in and of itself. If the majority of the population is convinced that this should not be crime, then the Congress (our representatives) should change the law. Specifically, the section 275 of the Immigration and Nationality Act.
27
@Western Iconoclast
When I moved states, I did not get a new driver's license or replace my license plates within 90 days. Am I a criminal?
3
@Western Iconoclast As the article points out, the "crime" of overstaying your visa or crossing a border illegally is, at most, a misdemeanor. No misdemeanors are considered in any of the data described in the analyses. If they were considered, then parking tickets, jay walking, and not mowing your lawn should all be considered as well. And still, illegal aliens/undocumented immigrants would not be statistically associated with higher misdemeanor rates.
3
@Western Iconoclast
A human being can't be illegal.
Only an act can.
6
We live in a post truth society where a single anecdote counts more than statistics.
8
@David: Good point, but I think more accurately we haven't reached the "statistical understanding" society yet. Maybe we're getting there, it's hard to tell.
2
@John Bergstrom
If anything, we have regressed from a time when 'I figure' or 'I calculate' were common vernacular expressions to add 'logical' validity. Now our speech is fraught with claims of supposed moral superiority: from the appalling 'I believe' to the undefined 'I feel' to the political favorite, 'As a __ person...'
So sad to here some of the comments here from people whom their ancestors came here where there was no legality and killed the natives by the thousands.This is called Mayflower syndrome: I was here first you're not welcome! I'm not a proponent of illegal immigration but let's face it this is a supply and demand issue. Nobody would come here if there would be no jobs for them and if they wouldn't be here our economy would be different with our aging population and low birth rate. They are paying your Social security and Medicare. Wake up.
17
@Ali
Our ancestors did many things. We do not have inherited debts nor guilt for the crimes of our fathers, that was an injustice of the past. You should not judge people on their parents, grandparents, nor ancestors.
10
@Ali - It's important to keep in mind that not all of your fellow U.S. citizens are descended from the early wave of emigration from Europe.
Most that I know, like myself, have roots in mid / late 19th century and early 20th century waves of immigration, and their ancestors did not 'kill natives by the thousands."
History involves nuance, and your comment ignores that nuance.
We also had a Labor movement in this country, and the leaders of that movement strongly objected to mass immigration because they rightly saw it as a threat to their ability to win concessions from employers.
12
@Ali I'm sorry but you're not living in reality. It's not realistic to think immigration policy can be just like it used to be many yrs ago. Societies change, they develop over time, populations have massively increased. The numbers involved in today's world bear no resemblance to yesteryear.
Anyway, the US DOES welcome in vast numbers of migrants every yr compared to the times you are referring to, 1.1 million immigrants officially given US citizenship every yr.
However, regardless of the numbers involved, no country abandons all security measures & willingly fails to vet every individual coming into the country, how reckless that would be. I want & expect my government to know who they are letting into the country & I want to know the government are doing their best to stop all those with sinister intentions.
I demand it of government actually.
8
Start with an irrefutable fact: undocumented immigrants - which is disguised terminology for illegal aliens - have chosen to violate the law by residing in the United States without legal authorization received from our federal government. It is a fair assumption that individuals who chose to violate federal law are more likely than others as a group to violate other federal and also state laws - both civil and criminal.
This study also apparently ignores an important consideration: it may be that illegal aliens commit a majority of their crimes against or with the knowledge of other illegal aliens - who are presumably much less likely to report those crimes ....
62
@William M. Palmer, Esq. I suppose you've never broken any law, never jaywalked, never sped, never rolled through a stop sign, never smoked a joint....
12
@William M. Palmer, Esq.
Realistically - if you are here illegally, and know if you commit a crime and are caught you will be deported, you might well be more law abiding than a normal citizen for whom a minor crime means a fine or short jail sentence, rather than deportation.
Now, from some functional perspectives, that could mean they should be left illegal.....
3
@William M. Palmer, Esq. Your "fair assumption" has just been proven wrong. And your last "important" point is irrelevant to these studies, as they show trends under the same reporting conditions, Unless you believe "illegal aliens" used to report crimes against them, but do so no longer. I doubt that is the case; but if it were true, it would be a "fair assumption" that increasing hostility by nativists (such as yourself) is the cause of this increasingly reluctant reporting.
5
"Is There a Connection Between Undocumented Immigrants and Crime?"
This is a spurious inference to make. Even a single death, rape or injury caused by an illegal immigrant is one too many. And here we are discussing hundreds of thousands.
42
It’s sort of morbid fun, watching you guys go from “With illegals, you get more crime!” to, “The stats are wrong!” to “The issue always was that even one more crime is too many!”
12
@Kai So why not apply this reasoning to the possession of firearms? A lot more American citizens are killed by other citizens with guns every year than are injured in any way by illegals.
12
If I enter another illegally and stay, including Mexico or any other country on the planet, will I be considered a "migrant?"
22
I can't think of a single illegal immigrant who was responsible the Great Recession. Remember? That greed-filled event from a decade ago that nearly cratered the world banking system? All brought to you by "good, decent Americans".
7
i'm a little concerned with the "outliers omitted" (note under graph 1) since i'm not told how many or how far they are lying out. there are many nonparametric statistical methods that are far less influenced by weird distributions. that said, all the trend (regression) lines actually slope downwards a bit, also a finding in one of the studies quoted in the article.
net net: the conservative claim that "immigrants cause crime" is either empty (all groups cause crime) or obviously false, as they tend (slightly) to cause *less* crime.
3
@drollere
As per this study, illegal immigrants are slightly less likely than the rest of the population to commit reported property based violent crime in their own neighborhoods.
That's like saying there is less rape in Afghanistan than Newark.
This study is so flawed it is ridiculous, and it doesn't show anything towards one 'side' or the other. OAC or MAGA, this study just isn't valid - starting with the collection of data.
The important group to prosecute are those that knowingly hire illegal immigrants, and I can't see why, left or right, anyone would be opposed to that solution.
As you walk out of you home in NYC, the number of non-violent crimes you see being committed is limitless. Off the book jobs (tax evasion) combined with benefits fraud, people driving cars without proper insurance or registration or licenses, illegal electric motor cycles, etc. This article should specify, violent crimes. The civil crimes that legal and illegal immigrants commit are significant but are rarely prosecuted because the police and authorities are told to look away.
131
@Michael Green
And even for violent crimes, the plots shown in this article are not "trend lines," they're big blobs of points.
Why did they omit reporting the p-value, I wonder?
5
@Michael Green
And don't forget tax evasion by real estate moguls like Donald Trump.
20
@Michael Green,
You should specify that none of those non-violent crimes you mentioned are specific to legal or illegal immigrants.
7
Whether by evidence or personal knowledge, immigrants both legal and illegal come help overwhelming to work as history has taught us.
It will not stop bigot, demagogues like Trump however to exploit the fears of Americans to his advantage.
51
This is a valuable analysis, but I'm afraid that it won't have much effect. The political issue is a symbolic one.
For many Americans, the presence of even a numerically small number of immigrant criminals--i.e. several thousand--symbolizes that the government fundamentally lacks control over the border, and is unable or unwilling to keep out people who should not be here.
However, for the G.O.P. business lobby and for Democratic vote counters, such a lack of control is a small price to pay for the economic and political boost that immigrants represent.
32
@JasonM The simple fact of the matter is that immigration laws are made and passed by congress. In today's political climate. congress members are more likely to grandstand their opinions, rather than do the work of passing laws to manage immigration.
21
It's not really about crime, or jobs, or laws.
It's just about the melanin content in someone's skin.
31
@Victor I. wrote " It's just about the melanin content in someone's skin." I strongly disagree that people object to illegal immigration because it's "brown people" who are doing it. That's a good example of fake victimization. Can you really say that if 600,000 illiterate white people were illegally marching into this country annually that the problem would be nonexistent?
5
@Stanley Gomez - Yes, the problem would be non-existent. Trump has said this clearly: he wished a large number of Norwegians were trying to get in the U.S, all of them tall, blond and blue-eyed.
No amount of statistics will defeat tribalism or the contempt many white people feel towards brown and black people.
"At the more local level, an analysis by Governing magazine reported that metropolitan areas with more undocumented residents had similar rates of violent crime, and significantly lower rates of property crime, than areas with smaller numbers of such residents in 2014.”
1. The phrase "similar rates of violent crime” means there are more violent crimes when a city has more illegal migrants, but the overall rate per 100,000 people has not significantly risen.
2. When a city’s population grows, it needs to hire more police. Illegal migrants do not contribute enough to the city’s tax base for it to hire enough police to cover the population growth. With fewer police, it takes longer for the police to answer a call on a property crime.
In addition, in some cities where the politicians want to say there is little crimes, the police are under pressure to classify crimes in a way to make them look as innocuous as possible
Word of this gets around. It does not take long for victims of property crimes to decide that it is not worth their while to call the police since they would probably have to wait “forever” for the police to arrive, and then when the police finally do come, they may make what happened seem like it was not much at all. Consequently, the number of reported property crimes does not reflect the actual number.
26
@ann: Actually, there are studies that show that illegal immigrants themselves tend to be more law abiding than legal immigrants, who tend to be more law abiding than non-immigrant Americans. Therefore, the proportion of immigrants (legal or illegal) should help to reduce overall crime rates and lower the demand for policing. That might help to explain why some cities are actually encouraging immigrants to take up residence there.
6
@ann
I am surprised that the NYT, which screens posts manually, would allow a post that is clearly wrong to go through. "Similar rates of violent crime" means the same rates per 100,000 than cities with lower rates of undocumented immigrants. I understand that you may not have trained as a statistician, but your interpretation is wrong (and that is not a matter of opinion).
Second, you are saying that the police are under pressure to "underreport" when there are more undocumented immigrants, which goes against all available data.
Third police response time may vary as well as the contribution of undocumented immigrants to the US tax base. Maybe those are things you ought to study. Education is good at all ages.
9
@ann I'm sorry, I missed your citation of studies backing up your views. I'm sure you will be providing the statistics in the near future.
7
Speaking as an Old White Guy, I'm mostly afraid of Old White Guys WITH GUNS. My city is largely immigrants of all sorts and my interactions with them gradually dispel my lingering fears and prejudice.
11
@Paul - Many not-so-old-white-people grew up in far more diverse environments than did people such as yourself, and may be basing their opinions on actual real-life experiences rather than bigotry, as your comment implies.
6
This story ignores the basic fact
that the immigration law is a law,
and that therefore every illegal immigrant (100%)
already -- ipso facto -- is breaking the law.
Laws ought to be obeyed,
whether or not breaking the law
is a "violent crime",
or is a "property crime".
There are also anti-fraud laws,
and zoning laws,
and traffic laws,
and anti-littering laws,
etc.
All of them ought to be obeyed,
and nobody should be exempt from any of them.
And even if someone "gets away" with breaking some laws
once, or even a thousand times, until now,
that does not give that person a pass for the next time.
Illegal immigrants are violating the law
every day, every minute that they stay here illegally.
The fact that they may have "gotten away with it"
for many days or years until now
is not a reason to exempt them for today or future days.
In addition,
there are many reasons to oppose illegal immigration.
Even if one reason turns out to be misplaced,
that says nothing about about the other reasons.
I have always opposed illegal immigration --
for many reasons,
-- other than whether or not they commit "regular" crimes.
My reasons include:
overpopulation and overcrowding,
cost of government benefits exceeding meager taxes paid,
and effects on depressing wage levels.
Aso, my reasons also include the basic unfairness
of letting illegal immigrants get away with breaking the law -
while other immigrants follow the law and wait their turn --
even if their turn means a very long wait.
50
@sam finn A voice of truth.
7
@sam finn
So every fugitive slave was a criminal?
5
@sam finn How about making it easier for people who come to this country to do so within the law? Just because a law is on the books, does not make it a good law. Not advocating disregarding immigration law or any other statute, but our immigration law is both inhumane and does not serve the national interest of a nation with an aging population that needs more workers.
2
Is There a Connection Between Undocumented Immigrants and Crime?
If there was we wouldn't read about it in the New York Times. Or The Washington Post. Or see it reported on CNN or MSNBC or the BBC.
62
@Luciano: And if there were no connection then you would still be hearing that there was one on FOX.
15
This is propaganda and the data presented flawed beyond belief-- this is correlation does note equal causation exemplified. Just because crime rates stayed the same while illegal immigration went up, does not mean that was caused by illegal immigration. Ever heard of controls in studies?
That's besides the fact that anybody, like me, who lives near the border has countless very real experiences to draw upon. Looks up the stats on hit and runs across the country and see that border states are the highest. Federal prison inmates are comprised of 27% illegal immigrants.
77
@JasonR
The four U.S. cities with highest crime rate are St Louis, Baltimore, New Orleans and Detroit. Among them, only one is on the border with another country, Detroit. Maybe you will claim crime is caused by Canadian immigrants?
25
@JasonR In reading your comment it appears that you would introduce a bias into the statistical sample by not using a homogenous sample, only samples from your area.
And that would be real propaganda that would please Trump.
Lastly, I question the validity of any study, particularly the organization that published a report that validates your 27% number due to the desired outcome possibly drove the method of study rather than developing a sound hypothesis with testing methodology.
In other words, cook the books.
7
@JasonR The "Most Wanted" lists include a lot of illegal aliens.
5
This is clever analysis in many ways but masks the concern about crime in the very essence of what it reports.
This study asks if crime rates increase per unit population. But it doesn't address absolute increases.
If 1/10th of your municipal population is illegal immigrants and they are committing 1/10th of the crime, a person can still reasonably look at that and say "10% of the crimes in this town are committed my illegal immigrants."
On the flip side of the coin, illegal immigrants may be on the receiving end of crimes committed by citizens (whose victims would otherwise be fellow citizens). It would be interesting to complete the loop and study if illegal immigrants are more or less likely to be victims of crimes.
2
This is a pretty biased account, driven home by that quote at the end about "Research indicates... they tend to bring ... cultural benefits to their communities."
Good luck quantifying that. "Cultural Benefits." We all know what that is code for, whether you approve of that outcome or not.
The broader methodological problem with this study, and those like it, is that (aside from the necessary weaseling of omitting first-order entry crimes as misdemeanors or civil violations) ... aside from that, every crime committed by someone who wouldn't otherwise be there is by definition an increase. Consider: You have two people in a room who both eat half a cake. One person sneaks in. The cake is divided three ways now. In an alternate scenario, a person is invited in and the cake is divided three ways. You cannot say there is no difference between scenarios 1 and 2. In scenario 1 the cake should have been divided 2 ways, not 3. An undocumented person isn't a substitute for another warm body (a native) that would take their place. It is an addition to what would otherwise be a closed system.
If your methodology and your mathematical modeling doesn't account for this, then it fails.
5
@JB I'm pretty sure your cake analogy completely misses the point of this study, and is about something else entirely (distribution of benefits).
2
First, the data is based on Pew Center estimates of undocumented populations. Trustworthy? Second, the data seems to show more crime where there are fewer illegal immigrants. Correlation with unemployment and crime? If I am an illegal I am headed to where there are jobs, not high unemployment zones like NYC where crime is at historic lows.
1
No, but there is a connection between education and crime. Americans have forgotten about this direct relationship and now have turned their attention at shaming immigrants, like for all their other woes.
1
This is a nice piece of research.
It still doesn't change the fact that people who are here illegally have committed a crime to be here, that the influx of under the table workers lowers wages and demand for our citizens to do work, lowers the jobs available to marginal workers (felons, high school dropouts, minorities, people out of the workforce trying to return).
And for those who want to see illegals as a tide of criminals invading our country, no number of statistics will override a singular anecdote - facts don't matter to some.
1
Speaking of facts, you got any to back up those claims?
The far left seals are clapping at this article. My guess is if this "study" said otherwise it would have never been reported on.
5
It makes sense, doesn’t it? These people are in the United States to have a better shot at a good life. Why would they want to commit crimes and draw attention to themselves? Not only that, rather than being the “worst” of their countries’ citizens, maybe they represent the “best.” They’re the ones who are brave enough to take the plunge and seek a better life. I speak Spanish and have communicated with many immigrants from Mexico and Central America. I have uniformly been impressed with the kind of people they are. Even if you believe some kind of immigration control is necessary please do not miscategorize the vast majority of our immigrants.
1
If there were no illegal aliens then the crimes committed by them would be zero.
8
Regression analysis is a wonderful tool but it's too blunt an instrument to shed light on this problem.
Here's another approach using pure logic rather than statistical inference.
1. IF Poor, young, uneducated Hispanic males commit violent crimes at higher rates than the general population.
2. AND IF The majority of illegal immigrants coming into the country match this profile
3. THEN illegal immigration will cause in increase in the rate of violent crime.
This assumes of course that the #1 and #2 are true. You can look that up yourself.
No racism or demagoguery required, just simple math and logic.
5
Except you didn’t offer any math, and your syllogism is a beautiful example of what’s wrong with “pure logic.”
Basically, what’s wrong is GIGO.
1
@Bob
IF the majority of people in the Real World don't understand basic statistics,
AND IF the same people don't understand what is generally considered necessary to demonstrate causation,
THEN poor examples of non sequitur logic will abound.
1
@Bob
Many studies show that undocumented immigrants, which would include the population you specifically mention: poor, young, uneducated Hispanic males, commit fewer crimes than the general non-immigrant population. So why are you assuming that your #1 is correct? That is not simple math and logic, that is ignoring many studies, and actually racism.
This report is based upon Uniform Crime Reports or "crimes known to the police." Common sense tells us that many illegal immigrant victims will not report probably most property crime and a good deal violent crime (though homicide is difficult to mask), even in "sanctuary cities." (Also can't help wondering if this study had found a strong politically incorrect correlation between illegal immigration and crime would it be published--and would it be front-page news in the New York Times?)
9
@FrederickRLynch
This is embarrassingly poor logic for any publication. Illegal immigrants in Any country avoid law enforcement
They do not report crime, and are often unaware of what constitutes a crime. They also fail to call child welfare. 911 fire and EMS calls will drop as well- but fires and hospitalizations ultimately go up.
'Unreported initially' is not the same as actual decrease. Ridiculous.
3
@FrederickRLynch: In other words, what we're missing in these statistics is a clear picture of the crimes perpetrated against illegal immigrants--which might well be committed by people from outside the immigrant communities, i.e., "Americans". So if we had fewer victims we'd have fewer perpetrators and so fewer crimes. Makes perfect sense.
@FrederickRLynch - wow. so, your political convictions are based on hypothetical arguments. good to know.
If the early comments to this article are a true sample of readership, we've got a lot of narrow-minded reactionary bigoted people who refuse to let go of their willfully ignorant preconceived notions reading The Times.
With the recognition that statistics do not matter to anyone who has been harmed, it is my anecdotal experience an an Immigration Lawyer are far more law-abiding than the average US Citizen.
As the article says, "They tend to bring economic and cultural benefits to their communities. They typically come to America to find work, not to commit crimes."
That's my professional experience, period.
52
@rds Okay, but every crime that the illegal aliens do commit is preventable by immigration law enforcement. Also, if you are practicing law you should not call everyone who doesn't support law-breaking "reactionary bigot". Just saying...
7
@rds It’s highly likely that Drudge Report linked to the article. That’s what usually brings the Trump supporters here.
1
@rds
You approvingly quote the pro-"undocumented" NYT,
"They tend to bring economic and cultural benefits to their communities. They typically come to America to find work, not to commit crimes."
Wrong.
If they do work,
they are ipso facto committing a crime.
Further, if they work at low wages,
they are undercutting American workers,
and benefiting no Americans
except maybe those who want cheap labor.
Furthermore,
they and their families use government resources,
or government-mandated resources,
such as schools, hospitals, parks and roads,
that cost far more than the meager taxes they pay.
Even if the "economic pie" does "grow"
the individual slices either shrink or do not grow,
because the pie has to be divided among more people.
2
We've reached the point where we are asked to accept that immigration laws don't matter; identity theft doesn't matter; driving without a license or insurance doesn't matter; dui's don't matter.
And we are also asked to accept that there is no relationship between being here illegally and breaking the law.
30
@Talbot. Not sure who is that we accept those things that you mention?
1
This ignores the fact that crime is significantly higher among second or third generation immigrants.
As always, I wish the Times would cover this topic objectively. That means telling *both* sides of the story.
10
@Josh Hill - can you document that?
But what you seem to be saying is that people born here are more likely to commit crimes than people who came and have reason to fear deportation. So you are just trying to validate the article's main point, I guess.
I'm fourth-generation, by the way, and all my parents and aunts and uncles were quite law-abiding. One was a police chief. Growing up, I was in schools in NJ that were packed with second, third, fourth generation students. It wasn't a crime spree.
1
@Josh Hill
Then wouldn't that means NO immigration at all? Unless you can make a direct correlation, let alone causation, then the argument is incomplete.
Pretty sure biological propagation is not a unique power or desire of illegal immigrants.
@Josh Hill What you're saying here really is that crime rates go up the more American a population becomes. It's been shown that illegal immigrants have lower crime rates than legal immigrants who have lower crime rates than "non-immigrant" Americans. Let's tell both sides of the story--let's tell that side.
2
I am all for legal immigration system and I do think all of us are going to benefit from it. That said, the data shown here does not support the conclusion that "[W]hen it comes to crime, the difference between someone who is called a legal immigrant and an illegal one doesn’t seem to matter." It does.
In addition, the text discusses "crime", but the data only considers aggravated assault, robbery, murder, burglary and larceny. How about petty theft, how about DUI, tax evasion, unlawful presence, insurance fraud, possession of illegal weapon/substance, etc.?
We do need to find a humane way to put a lid on illegal immigration. Please respect your readers and don't try to pretend there is no problem and illegal immigration is the same as legal immigration.
15
@mhg
hate crimes, child abuse and rape are all (sadly) culturally specific and not included in this poorly acquired/ analyzed data.
I'd love to know why they think some poor immigrant going to the money order place with 700$ weekly pay in their pocket is going to call the police when they are robbed.
2
Hahaha, they call that a trend line? It's a big blog of points.
What are the p-values?
5
@asdfj - anyone with even a brushing near encounter with statistics can tell, by looking at the bivariate scatterplots, that there is a zero correlation between the immigration and crime metrics.
using multiple regression, or taking a pearson correlation as a single variable regression on normalized values, you can plot a trend line. even when there is no trend. why? because the trend line only tells you what you expect as the association between the variables. and a flat trend line says, "no association."
2
@asdfj
Absolutely. No statistician in his right mind would see a trend in the scatter plots. Regression diagnostics without any doubt very poor. But it's actually a confirmation that there is no relation between immigration and crime. While the phrasing in the article is dubious at best (flat line, etc.), the conclusion is correct.
1
@Jean-Claude Arbaut
"But it's actually a confirmation that there is no relation between immigration and crime."
So at best illegal immigrants commit crime at the same rate as the native population. Still not good news.
2
Not that this will have any impact on any of the bigots who voted for a birther guilty of at least one felony.*
*AT THE VERY LEAST, didn't even one Republican party member in the House and Senator at least read the evidence files in those Trump "University" class action lawsuits that were charging him with fraud and racketeering?
Individual No. 1 bought his way out of that one, but he can't buy his way out of all of the preponderance of evidence that speaks for itself on several other matters - no matter how long he thinks he can manage to keep it from seeing the light of day.
The people who hire illegals are the problem. They always have been and always will be.
If there were a real desire to solve this problem - we would jail the employers.
Otherwise men like trump will continue to abuse both illegals and the americans they refuse to pay
5
@shrinking food
Absolutely. No new laws, no fences, jails and baby cages. Hard time for anyone that hires an illegal. Then the 'problem' will vanish overnight. Borders need to be all open or all shut, otherwise criminals exploit the situation.
Please don't take away one of Trump's bogeymen. This must be fake news. Mexico: pay up for that wall already!
In 2014, Canada received 14,000 asylum seekers. Last year, it was 55,000. Most of them come from the US. They fly to New-York, take a bus to Plattsburgh and a cab to the frontier. They cross illegally in Quebec, are arrested and, after asking for asylum,are released.
Do you think 50,000 illegal immigrants per year in Montreal will affect crime statistics?
Some people are talking about bussing them to some god forsaken place like...Toronto. Others want a wall on the N-Y state border. Others believe people from the South carry unspeakable diseases and should be quarantined in a tent village in Ungava.
Funny isn’t it? 50,000 people fleeing persecution from Trump.
3
@Skiplusse If my age did not prevent me from either applying for Canadian citizenship or seeking asylum...
@Skiplusse
They say they are fleeing from Mr. Trump so that makes it true? Canada is 1/10th the population of the United States so that is the equivalent of 500,000 asylum claimers is that really something you should be chuckling at? Michelle Rempel doesn't find it very funny nor does Maxime Bernier what will you do if Scheer or Bernier is your next PM?
1
According to a recent Yale study, there are over 20 MILLION foreign nationals residing in our country illegally... exploiting our porous borders, our public services, our schools, hospitals, labor market, and birthright citizenship laws...costing American taxpayers $BILLIONS year after year.
And NO, their contribution to our federal coffers (with stolen social security numbers?) does NOT offset that cost.
THAT is a crime.
18
@Michal - provide a link to that. Because nearly all estimates are more in the 10 to 12 million range.
So a link, please, to the recent Yale study so we can verify what you claim. Because I find it difficult to believe your number.
5
@Michal Does it bother you at all that the POTUS has not contributed to the federal coffers at all for God knows how long?
6
@Michal There's study after study showing that immigration (legal or otherwise) is net positive for this country. Just look around if you are not blind. It's a simple law of supply and demand. Birth rates in this country barely keeping up the population stable. Also there are a lot of very wealthy foreign nationals living in this country as well.
Every 'undocumented' illegal immigrant is guilty of breaching the border of the US. That's a crime,
13
Undocumented aliens by the very nature of being here illegally have committed a crime and should be deported.
9
Isn’t illegal immigration a crime in itself?
8
@Cecil Shepherd I would call the illegal colonization of the Americas by Europeans immoral.
Hispanic crimes rates are higher than the national average. Look up prison demographics.
Has anyone heard of South Central Jewish, Canadian or Norwegian gangs?
7
My friends and family are in far more danger from white nationalist Trump supporters who summarily execute people they don’t like, and other random right-wing gun nuts who agitate for a civil war, than from migrants who have crossed the border illegally to pick fruit and vegetables and work as housekeepers to survive.
6
@Kip
Majority of male undocumented work construction in NYC area at least.
1
Ah, so now the Hannity's and Dobbs' and Ingraham's of the made-up-verse Fox News will complain that immigrants aren't lowering the crime rates enough.
3
Yeah, let's get rid of all immigration laws!
The left has lost its collective mind.
10
@MM - how does an article examining a link between immigration status and likeliness to commit various types of crime somehow, in your mind, become a supposed endorsement by "the left" to do away with immigration laws?
I've not noticed the GOP-controlled Senate or the White House trying to promote work on comprehensive immigration law reform. Rubio and some others had been trying with Democrats, but the far right started yelling their heads off and that stopped that. Oh, and fearless leader is fixated on preventing all forms of immigration, legal or otherwise. Except to staff his properties, that is. maga....
@b fagan
Rubio and some other Repubs are joining Dems to pitch amnesty as part of some kind of supposed "bipartisan compromise"
That is not a "compromise".
It is a sellout.
America does not need so-called "comprehensive immigration reform".
It needs comprehensive immigration control.
Dear headline writers:
"New research suggests there is no connection between undocumented immigrants and crime."
Tell that to families that have had kids murdered or raped by illegals.
These types of articles attempt to dilute the fact that these crimes would never have taken place if the first crime (entering illegally) didn't occur.
6
@Ari
Tell it to families that had their kids murdered or raped by legals.
This is a study about a fact - is there a higher crime rate where illegals are. The answer appears to be no.
I want all illegals deported, but the question here is about crime rates, which indicates if illegals are more or less likely to commit violent and property crimes than legal citizens.
@Ari
Rape is not included in this study, nor are hate crimes.
The study focuses on reported crime.
The problem I have with these sorts of analyses is that we are measuring a number we have some data on (reported or known immigrants) vs. something we have only by supposition, the number of undocumented aliens. We use much extrapolations and other data techniques that does not always work. Just read the article from this weekend in the NYT about economic forecasts (author, Samuelson).
6
@BA
The data collection is more fundamentally flawed. It focuses on One or two very specific crimes, leaving out rape, domestic partner abuse, child abuse and hate crimes, for instance.
Then even with murder and robbery- the dead bodies may be 'gang activity' again outside of the crimes they show. As for assault and robbery: These don't get reported by illegal immigrants because of fear of deportation. You just have guys show up with head trauma in the ER early Sunday morning.
1
Does this study take into account the fact that illegal immigrants who have crimes committed against them by other illegal immigrants (human trafficking, but also theft, assault, etc.) are unlikely to report these crimes? And without those crimes being counted, the study is worthless?
11
@Sue
No. No sex crimes included, nor child abuse, domestic assault etc.
1
A US Civil Rights Commission study concluded that illegal immigrants compromise the wages of low income minorities, especially young black men especially in areas like construction and food processing.
https://www.usccr.gov/pubs/docs/IllegImmig_10-14-10_430pm.pdf
12
"Is There a Connection Between Undocumented Immigrants and Crime?"
Answer: Yes, there is a 100% correlation.
By definition, an illegal has committed at least one crime by violating our immigration laws, specifically Title 8, Section 1325 of the US Code and Section 275 of the Immigration and Nationality Act. This crime is punishable by jail time.
17
@Jay Lincoln Native Americans like myself, would say to you those "laws" are not valid, since our land has been occupied.
2
@Irene Cantu
Really, are you Salutrean? Does the world only belong to Denosovian and Neanderthals while homo sapiens including All of us only belong in Africa? Are you using a fixed position mantle position to allow for continental movement?
Countries and governments are human constructs. Humans need to constantly debate, refine and develop their countries and governments.
2
Now, if only government policy was based on facts and research ...
3
@Mr. Adams
Bad research is even worse than no research.
There's a phrase for this in programming: "junk in, junk out."
It applies to modeling of all sorts, not just in the digital realm, but across all STEM disciplines. But why could it be seen as worse than no research? Because poorly done research will obfuscate better research, whereas no research will invite research to fill a void.
1
so why not be for legal immigration, yet still cautious about illegal immigration?
are you for illegal acts overall?
do you prefer illegal immigrants over legal?
it makes no sense to favor illegal immigration, no matter your politics. we need a system, and rules.
15
I'm sure that there is an occasional crime committed by an undocumented immigrant, but by and far most of the crimes committed in this country are committed by natural born citizens that aren't seeking asylum and aren't staving.
1
Immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than US citizens. Undocumented immigrants commit even less crime than authorized immigrants. This makes sense. People come to the US to work, flee violence and poverty and improve their lives. The crime wave that Trump keeps yelling about has not materialized. Period.
We need a President and a Republican party who will offer real immigration reform proposals and be prepared to negotiate with Democrats rather than the hate-filled lies we are all exposed to on a daily basis.
6
"Illegal immigration itself is either a civil violation or a misdemeanor, depending on whether someone overstayed a visa or crossed the border without authorization"
.... so are we saying civil violations and misdemeanors don't count or aren't 'real crimes'....? This definitely opens up the question of what you consider a crime which, BY DEFINITION, is not a subjective question. I hate articles like this that flaunt stats on violent crimes only and ignore the most common crimes committed by immigrants which is vagrancy, petty larceny, simple assault etc... As the old saying goes "if you let the little things slide, the big things catch up to you"
9
@Tom This article has specific graphs on Property Crime, Assaults, Robberies, Burglaries, *and* Larcenies (all of which show a downward trend). Did you even so much as skim the article?
3
Missing stats include those showing that the percentage of illegal immigrants in U.S. prisons for crimes other than immigration violations far exceeds their numbers as a percentage of the population, or the fact that they get convicted at a far higher rate.
https://crimeresearch.org/2018/01/impact-illegal-aliens-crime-rates/
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/feb/5/study-finds-high-rates-of-prison-jail-for-illegals/
https://crimeresearch.org/2018/01/impact-illegal-aliens-crime-rates/
3
@HMI The logical reconciliation between this data and your claims, of course, would be that illegal immigrants are subject to disproportionate persecution by police, much like many other minority groups.
2
"It is a widely held perception" Is that by bigots? Because I lived in a neighborhood in New York City for eight years that was all, entirely Mexican and Dominican.
I, white guy, always felt that they were perfectly well aware of what a good life it was to live in the US and all that they wanted to do was work and take care of their families. I had no problems.
The bigots of the US should at least try to come to terms with the same ideas.
4
But, you need to check the crime in the immigrants home town. Unless, the family pays the human smugglers (to bring them to the US), the smugglers will kill the family of the immigrant.
You need to look at a regional approach. More illegal immigration just encourages the smugglers. US law enforcement should be arresting and enforcing the death penalty against these smugglers. (only fair, when the smugglers are enforcing a death penalty against their customers.)
US should be changing its immigration laws somehow. Or somehow be able to reform the political practices of countries south of our border that are taking kickbacks from these illegal smugglers.
Putting up a wall will not help. The smugglers will just come in by submarine or air drop illegals over the border. The smugglers don't want to give up these income.
1
Does this include the crimes committed by the people that hire them? Hiring someone illegally present is a crime. Stealing someone's social security number is a crime. Driving without a license is a crime. Cheating workers on their wages, not paying overtime, etc, is a crime. Illegal Immigration abets a tremendous amount of crime on the part of the alien and the person for whom they work. Every working alien is in a situation where multiple crimes are committed by that alien or around that alien every single day.
The amount of criminality surrounding illegal immigration and illegal aliens dwarfs all other types of crime.
5
@Djt
Yes, let's go after the employers.
And yes, when the employer does suspect an employee or employee wannabe is illegal, let's require that the employer report the illegal to ICE.
And when ICE comes to get the illegal,
let's support ICE in deporting him.
And if the employer who reports him has acted promptly in making the report to ICE, then let's commend the employer, not condemn him.
And let's make the entire process more swift and reliable by developing, and implementing, and mandating, a nationwide, uniform biometric ID system, digitally accessible, at the point of hire.
Look at the violent crimes committed by illegal immigrants in the United States. Looking at only those crimes, that is the amount of increase in crimes that have been committed by illegal immigrants . If you or a loved one has been a victim then you know the increase is not significant, if fact so significant it may change your life forever.
4
First and for most “unauthorized “ immigration is a crime. Second of all to quote the Democrats when it comes to gun control “if saves just on life then it’s worth it” so why not apply the same standard here we know undocumented immigrants have killed US citizen so if they were deported then those unfortunate citizens would still be alive today. I am just saying apply the same standard.
5
It is impossible to know the crime rate of illegal immigrants. We can't know for sure who they are, where they live, etc.
4
What about a story on the cost of it! That is what is really hurting the US.
6
Trump's inhumane separation policies are a crime, with several legitimate lawsuits that challenged his forced family separation tactics at the southern border.
It violated the Fith Amendment Constitution, our standing U.S. asylum laws, and the fundamentals of due process.
So who is the real criminal.
2
@Jbugko No, actually it wasn't a crime, the government simply enacted a law that was already on the statute book.
Also, President Trump didn't separate anyone at the border, the people illegally crossing the border with young children caused any separation that happened. That is what happens when people are arrested with minors in their company. If I was arrested for something & I had a young child with me that no family member could come & collect then I would be separated from that child as I'm taken to be processed through the custodial system.
1
I suspect that this excellent article will draw a lot of yack about diseases as well as about how, “I heard They commit all kinds of crime and liberals won’t let The Truth be told.”
By the way, statistics can’t tell you much more than likelihood about individual cases.
3
The term applied to these people, illegal, certainly means they should not be here and should receive no services, except perhaps a bus ticket back to the last place they were at outside the US. Change the law so that our policies match what is wanted and needed. This entire brouhaha has been going on ever since I can remember, but only more recently, as all the supposedly mistreated interest groups glom onto a bandwagon they created following on the legitimate black civil rights movement, have the illegals taken on the somewhat spurious claim of victimization or “discrimination”.
4
Seems unlikely to get an accurate analysis using data that by it's very nature is "undocumented".
3
All illegal immigrants have committed crimes. All of them could have applied to come here legally (as my ancestors and wife did) but they decided to break the law and enter the country illegally instead.
Why we put up with this is beyond me
6
As a legal immigrant myself I would suggest that illegal immigrants do contribute to crime totals by .... coming here illegally.
5
One reason the crime rate might go down when illegal immigration goes up is that there are more opportunities for native-born people to get better jobs. Native-borns are notorious for not wanting to work at the low end wage jobs illegal immigrants take, so if those are taken up, it may stimulate the economy enough that there are more jobs available at the next tier up, which native-borns could fill, thereby lessening poverty, which is a known cause of higher crime rates.
1
@Scott Baker "Native-borns are notorious for not wanting to work," in poorly paid and dangerous occupations, while illegal immigrants are too desperate to refuse this type of employment.
There are several references in this article to illegal immigrants not committing more crimes than "their counterparts" or to studies being normed for various factors. But this is a criticism immigration skeptics have raised about studies like this. If illegal immigrants are predominantly young men without high school diplomas (a reasonable assumption), and if they only commit crimes at the same rate as native-born young men without high school diplomas, they will still raise the crime rate. Illegal immigrants may not commit more crimes than other poorly-educated young men, but raising the proportion of poorly-educated young men in our communities may not be a good idea.
7
@Tom then the government at the federal, state, and local levels should invest more money into education and vocational training programs, or create more employment opportunities. Invest in the forgotten sections of our society and I can guarantee you things will improve.
1
There is a clear connection in the evidence: undocumented immigrants significantly reduce overall crime. Undocumented immigrants do not commit crimes in any significant number. So the higher the percentage of undocumented immigrants in a given area, the lower the absolute number of crimes and hence the vanishingly low crime rate. It’s not a hard concept but right wingers falsely deny it.
2
This is changes in crime rate vs undocumented numbers. for this evaluation, it should be change in crime rate. Please show the data for crime rate (as a rate i.e. number per 100,000 people per year, not the change in rate) vs. number of undocumented people (number per 100,000 people)
2
Rather than starting with data and then extrapolating until they get the results they want, researchers should study the number of crimes committed by illegal immigrants. Each one of these crimes is a crime that would not have happened if the individual was not in the US. Then readers can determine if the humanitarian benefits of more open immigration outweighs the downside.
5
Saying there's no difference between documented and undocumented immigrants when it comes to crime, makes no sense. Part of the vetting process for allowing in legal immigrants is considering their criminal history. With illegal immigrants there is no vetting of criminal history; the violent come in with the non-violent. It's the same with illness and vaccinations: legal immigrants must prove a vaccination history and show that they don't have a contagious disease; illegal immigrants don't. Yet I guarantee that there is a progressive "study" out there saying that illegal immigrants are generally healthy people and don't get sick more than legal immigrants. But so what? Don't we have the right to have procedures for letting people in? If we have given up that right, then we shouldn't bother vetting legal immigrants for criminal history and health.
6
If you combine enough of the right elements crimes will precipitate from them regardless of an individual's immigration status. Crimes generally stem from some sort of struggle for resources, so if you really want to reduce crime, you need to figure out a better means for resource distribution.
Alternative interpretation of the same data: The locales preferred by illegal immigrants - i.e. large urban centers - have existing high levels of violent crime. Violent crime rates among illegal immigrants are masked by the high level of crimes in the communities where they live.
BTW, of all crimes the only meaningful information comes from homicides because of the well documented underreporting of crime in illegal immigrant communities (for rather obvious reasons). Homicides, by their nature, are rarely underreported and, therefore, give the most accurate picture.
2
I wish we could get an honest accounting of how many crimes are being committed by wealthy people— adding service charges to your mobile bill or checking account, fleecing mortgage-seekers, raising prices on generic drugs that have been around for decades, squeezing people with student loans after bankruptcy, gaming electricity prices, laundering money to build NY real estate while evading taxes. The things the very wealthy do to maintain and build their wealth have a greater impact on the misery of everyone who isn’t in the 1 percent, wrapped in bureaucratese and plausible (some of it) deniability, than our undocumented immigrant population.
2
There is most certainly a connection between crimes never being committed in the U.S. and those that would commit such crimes not being in the U.S. I'm guessing there is loads of data to support..
3
I'm actually surprised that the correlation isn't more negative because the stakes of committing crimes are much higher for illegal aliens. That said, there are 3 arguments against illegal immigration:
1) Socio-economic and ecological impacts. Low wages, overcrowded schools, unsustainable population growth...
2) Non-violent crimes: fake social security numbers, driving without licenses, immigration violations...
3) Every murder committed by an illegal alien could have been prevented by enforcing immigration laws. Obviously that's not the case with murders committed by citizens. So in those cases the failure to enforce the most obvious violations of law is responsible for the deaths.
But thanks for at least not conflating illegal aliens with immigrants. The conflation has done a lot of harm to immigrants.
3
It's good to see a new study that shows what we've been saying for years: immigrants tend to commit fewer crimes than other Americans, regardless of whether the immigrants are documented or not.
However, it's doubtful that this study will change Trump's mind and he's the one spreading misinformation, i.e., lies, about immigrants.
2
Evidently drug trafficking isn't treated as a violent crime by this study. It has been documented that the street trade in heroin smuggled from the Mexican state of Nayarit is carried out by illegals from there who rotate in and out of the US. See the book "Dreamland" by Sam Quinones on how that works. That trade is one of the principle factors in the explosion in rates of drug addiction in this country, which is in turn a driver of crime.
4
Illegal immigrants who are victims of crime seldom report the crime to police, hence one should view the validity of these statistics with skepticism. Not only does one face deportation for committing a crime, an illegal resident faces deportation for reporting they were a victim of a crime.
1
I don’t know. That sounds rather unsupportable mathematically.
Let’s first define what we mean by increased crime rates within the legal population versus the illegal population, and whether that ought to be the correct framing for the issue.
Suppose a crime rate is 1% for a legal population and 1% for the illegal population. In this scenario, it can be argued they the crime rate did not rise. If it was 2% for the legal population and 1% for the illegal population, the crime rate would go down to 1.5%, if the populations were the same size. Ok, hurrah for illegal immigrants? Not quite.
This method of accounting fails to account for the fact that the number of crimes increased. Forget about the rates for a moment. Your neighbor is murdered. An illegal immigrant did it. You say, “crime rates have gone up due to illegal immigration.” That is an example of correct thinking, but the the wrong choice of words.
2
@Daniel Kauffman
Brilliant! The way to reduce crime is to have fewer people!
How about this: Do my chances of being a victim of crime go down or up if the crime rate goes down?
2
First, "illegal immigrant" is an oxymoron. Immigration is a process of obeying the laws of the country being entered. Thus one who has followed immigration laws is not "illegal." Violating the immigration laws is illegal. Others have used the phrase "undocumented aliens," which would be more accurate.
Second, it's impossible for "illegal immigrants" or "undocumented aliens" not to influence crime statistics. 100% of them have committed a crime in entering the country. So these 'studies' are fraudulent on their face.
1
Undocumented immigrants do not commit many crimes - this seems self-evident. Why take on the expense and danger of travelling to the US only to take a risk of being expelled?
But this isn't the full picture. What this article does not address is the soaring level of violent crime by children of immigrants. The inability of undocumented parents to deal with changes in cutures, and the danger of engaging with public authorities for assistance areprobably large causes, but the fact remains - a wave of undocumented immigrants is almost always followed up with a wave of crime.
In Europe, we've seen what happens when this fact is dismissed by the center and left: a surge in popularity of political parties willing to discuss the phenomenon: the reprehensible far right like AFD, Italian Lega, Jobbik, etc.
It's probably better to address this, and not gloss over the problem with articles like this one. We need to help second-generation immigrants, rather than let the problem fester.
https://voxeu.org/article/immigration-and-far-right-voting-new-evidence
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2017/02/03/future-development-reads-immigration-and-crime-in-the-united-states-europe-and-japan-what-the-research-shows-what-folks-believe-and-what-governments-should-do/
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/10/15/crime-rises-among-second-generation-immigrants-as-they-assimilate/
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0011128713502406?journalCode=cadc
Today's paper also contains an article showing just how much struggling towns and cities in New York have benefitted from the settlement of refugees. From an economic perspective, one path toward economic development is simple: let in more immigrants and refugees. It's also telling how quickly posts try to invent new reasons to assert a link with crime no matter how often their assumptions are proven invalid.
7
@Ben Lieberman The act of coming into the country without permission is illegal.
"From an economic perspective, one path toward economic development is simple: let in more immigrants and refugees. "
Yeah, who is paying for their healthcare while I get crushed by skyrocketing Obamacare premiums.
The far left will turn the U.S. into a 3rd world country.
3
@Ben Lieberman as long as they can support themselves, pay taxes and get health insurance, cool. They will be a help. But come to southern NJ, Ill show you town after town after town, once lovely, vibrant and prosperous glutted with dirt poor immigrants all on the dole and making babies as if they are going out of style.
2
People generally are more swayed by simple explanations than by truths that resist simplicity.
It i easier to believe that foreigners coming to the U.S. are committing crimes. Crime rates increase and make the population becomes less safe.
It is more difficult to understand that these foreigners are actually not better or worse people. That American TV news media has an economic incentive in sensationalizing news. That over time, TV coverage of crimes has increased and therefore a TV news media consumer is more aware of said crimes than they were before (even though in many cases crime rates have decreased). That because of this dynamic, we as a population feel less safe.
I think this is why this connection is so widely perceived.
14
@Carlos Rossi
you call them "foreigners". You cant even use the word illegal. They are illegal and don't belong here to begin with.
1
A conservative thinker stepping back from an article like this would make the argument (if they agreed with underlying facts) that though immigrants do not "increase" the crime rate some of them are "part" of the crime rate. In other words if the property crime rate was 40 in 100,000 and the local illegal immigrant population was 4.6% in that area, than about 2 crimes in every 40 were committed by illegal immigrants. Remove illegal immigrant and you have two less victims as well.
I believe in creating tight borders even if it means some new sections of wall here and there... But borders with very large and well staffed doors an compassionate treatment of those who wind up there. I also think that guest worker programs (especially in the agricultural sectors) with safe working and living conditions, access to remedial education and free health care for these workers would go along way in dealing with part of the problem. Guest worker status could move our guests up the ladder for citizenship.
On the non-economic flight from our southern neighbors (though I think economics winds its way through most attempts to immigrate from the south) I think that money spent wisely in those donor countries would help those impoverished nations come to grips with their rampant gangs that terrorize even the wealthy.
We need to have an honest dialogue about immigration. Not this vitriolic argument led by Trump... We are going in circles that look like spirals...
24
@Bill Cullen, Author
By your example, removing illegal immigrants would mean two less victims, but the overall property crime rate would go up, as "Many studies have established that immigrants commit crimes at consistently lower rates than native-born Americans." Also, the two fewer victims are likely to be immigrants. Taking out a group with lower percentage crime raises the crime RATE. Per your example, take 4.6% out of 100,000 leaves a population of 95,400. Based upon studies showing lower immigrant crime rates, assuming 0.0326% property crime rate for immigrants and 0.0404% for native-born Americans. 4600 x .000326 = 1.5 property crimes by immigrants and 95,400 x .000404 = 38.5 property crimes. Take out the immigrants and the overall property crime rate rises from 4.00% to 4.04%.
There is a false narrative that we Americans are in greater harm's way due to immigration. Often (not always) crimes are committed on others within the same community--that is, immigrant on immigrant.
3
@Bill Cullen, Author
A statistician would indicate that the probability that you, a US citizen, are a victim of a crime is exactly the same irrespective of the number of undocumented immigrants. So, the increase in population is making absolutely no difference in the expectation of being a victim of a crime. A faulty mathematical reasoning is also a way to spread fake news. Please, do your math.
6
Here is the connection. Laws either matter or they don't matter. If our Immigration laws don't matter why should our other laws. The reason these migrants need to leave their countries is they lack the rule of law. So we either have the rule of law or we lack the rule of law. There is the connection and no study or series of studies can invalidate that connection. Want to live in a country with the rule of law. Then enforce all of our laws, even the immigration laws.
109
@GregP How about changing the laws? Our aging country needs more immigrants, not fewer. If the laws made legal entry easier much of the problem could be resolved. Further, let’s stop attempting to criminalize asylum seeking just for political gain.
53
@GregP
Excellent comment. I wish I could recommend this 1000x.
6
@GregP. This is not a forum for rational discussion. Those days may return in a couple of years but not today.
5
I find it incredibly ironic the way the U.S. and especially Utah celebrated and sentimentalized the Chinese immigrant workers who built the Cross Continental Roads, yet can't extrapolate that to modern-day immigrant workers. In Utah the Golden Spike celebration was memorialized with politicians dressing up in period clothing and reenacting the driving of the last spike, yet this Republican state shows little compassion or support for women or immigrants.
26
Last missing piece. As a percentage of crimes overall in a given location are the number of crimes committed by undocumented immigrants increasing? Likely not but if 10 years ago say 10 percent of crimes were committed by undocumented immigrants and now 20 percent are committed by undocumented immigrants you still have an issue even if total number of crimes is going down and the population of undocumented immigrants in a given area is going up. If you remove crimes committed by undocumented immigrants from the count would the percentage of crime decrease be even greater than what an area experienced?
12
Asked and answered.
Maybe read the article?
RE: "For undocumented immigrants, being arrested for any reason would mean facing eventual deportation."
Except for those who cross the borders for the express purpose of committing crimes the fear of deported after being caught would seem a strong incentive not to commit crimes for the illegal immigrant. (Other than the basic crime of arriving illegally.)
1
I remember reading decades ago that crime can be estimated by determining the number of transient males in an area between the ages of 16 and 40.
If that is valid, how can increased immigration not raise rates of crime?
Enlighten me.
11
@frankly 32 Because undocumented workers aren't the same as native transient males. As the article states, they come here to work, not commit crimes.
1
@frankly 32, maybe the details of what you remember reading decades ago is incorrect. Rational people (e.g. scientists) revisit and challenge previous conclusions when faced with new data.
1
@frankly 32 You have a number of logical fallacies. First "I remember reading decades ago..." is "decades ago" and "I remember". Hardly very good evidence. Second, why are undocumented immigrants "transient males". Seems to be a bit of a leap when immigrants, like most other people, tend to find a spot and build a life. Third, if we accept your presumption that most undocumented immigrants are transient males aged 16 to 40, then you are making the next assumption that they behave as other transient males aged 16 to 40. In fact the article makes the opposite assertion - that fear of deportation could drive undocumented immigrants to commit less crime.
1
So the "upshot" of the study is that not only do undocumented immigrants commit fewer crimes than domestic-born Americans, not only is there no connection between crime and immigration, documented or not, but "They tend to bring economic and cultural benefits to their communities. They typically come to America to find work, not to commit crimes, says Yulin Yang, a member of the team."
So to sum up, Donald Trump's and the GOP's attempts to paint immigration as a violent invasion is a lie based on lies.
20
@Sean
Wrong.
Supposedly erudite academic "experts"
like Yullin Yang are disingenuously committing
the academic sin (even if not a crime)
of intellectual dishonesty:
The question of "bringing economic benefits"
is not measured by overall growth in
the total "economic pie" (i.e. total GDP).
Rather, the proper measure
is whether the slices of the pie get bigger,
i.e. whether GDP per capita gets bigger.
It is pointless to yammer about the "growth" of the pie
when the slices get smaller or remain the same.
And that is what happens when
the "growth" of the pie is achieved
with more people --such as more immigration --
because the "growth" in "pie"
must be offset by dividing it among more people --
as opposed to normal economic "tools" for "growth"
such as this or that tax policy,
or this or that fiscal policy,
or this or that monetary policy,
or this or that business regulation policy,
or this or that technological advance --
all which do not involve more people.
Just compare India and Canada.
India has a far larger "economic pie" (i.e. total GDP)
than Canada,
but also far more people.
Result:
Far smaller smaller slices of the pie (GDP per capita).
So, regardless of India's bigger "economy",
no one seriously claims India has a better economy.
3
@sam finn
"And that is what happens when the "growth" of the pie is achieved with more people --such as more immigration -- because the "growth" in "pie" must be offset by dividing it among more people -- "
Almost. See, those pie slices aren't all the same size. When the bottom of the socioeconomic scale gets loaded up with low-skilled workers, all the benefits of that cheap labor goes to the top, and inequality rises as the GDP does. All of the costs of that cheap labor goes to those who share the same rung of the scale.
1
The analysis is of crime rates, which compares number of criminal acts between groups of people. However, the fact that illegal immigrants commit crimes is the point that upsets many people. If they weren’t here there would be less instances of crime overall, which is a good thing - isn’t it?
16
@Paul
Men commit most crimes...maybe if we lock them up there will be fewer crimes..well yeah...but that would be pretty immoral
5
@Paul - Yes, if we can save even one life, we should, right? But not when it comes to gun control or environmental protections, right?
1
@Jim Dennis-I am completely against illegal immigration... And completely for gun control and strong environmental protections. These concepts aren't mutually exclusive.
Another crime that does not show up is cheating undocumented workers of their pay, as the Trump organization did to satisfy pressure from the top for managers to cut costs. They forced workers to clock out and keep working long hours without pay.
19
It would also be very interesting to see crime rates against undocumented immigrants either by other immigrants or Americans. So called illegal immigration is nothing short of free will slavery that no one talks about, because it’s inconvenient to admit that the greatest country in the world still uses slave labor to build its infrastructure, grow produce or take care of its elderly and children.
4
This article focuses only on violent crime, but what about non-violent crimes like identity theft, fraud, and driving without insurance? Those non-violent crimes are the ones that directly impact ordinary citizens.
71
@Jen
Property crime is the most widespread of all categories, and shows no effect of immigration status.
8
Shouldn't one be asking how do the crime rates among undocumented immigrants compare to the rates among documented immigrants?
6
@Marcus Quintilian That's literally answered in the article's last sentence: "The data suggests that when it comes to crime, the difference between someone who is called a legal immigrant and an illegal one doesn’t seem to matter."
1
Some thoughts to be repeated about undocumented people:
Sarah99 refers to "coming [here] illegally". However, it is a fact that a more that 50% came here legally on some category of visa (there are many types), and simply overstayed. Bingo..."illegal". Also, there is no evidence whatsoever that undocumented individuals bring diseases, contagions, etc.--a paper tiger. Many of their countries of origin have perfectly acceptable sanitation, @Chris Anderson. Marucha is on target.
5
No, there is no connection. I agree.
2
I’m not surprised by the findings. As mentioned here illegal immigrants try to distance themselves from scenarios that could get them deported. Also crimes against them tend to go unreported. This could skew the results a little as illegal immigrants tend to live in communities, which would suggest most crime in these communities go unreported.
I am more curious though of the legal children of illegal immigrants. They do not have to worry about being deported and they tend to have many of the risk factors associated with heavy crime including high poverty, very poor education (Hispanics have the lowest percentages of high school graduates by far) and a very tight community of people in a similar position.
I’m guessing if you looked at the children you would see a very different result.
13
@Jack,
I'm sure everybody commenting would guess something different. Do you understand the importance of actually having some data (as, for example, what you presumably read in this article) before spouting off about minority children and crime?
4
There you go with facts, data, and reality again. Sadly, though this fact-based analysis is sound and compelling, it won't convince people who are more interested in believing than knowing.
12
Very interesting article, This is the kind of information, based on facts and research, that I expect from the nyt.
9
I would like to see a chart of D.C's criminals vs. immigrant population. What are the crimes and what are the sentences in a comparison chart.
School shooters - all white men, if it were a minority who were predominately shooting up schools, we would see a change in selling regulations immediately.
6
Of course there is no connection, but who are we to actually believe the facts. Don The Con is always right, so if he says we are under invasion and not safe, then so it is. No amount of facts and data will change that, or what his minions will believe.
31
"The data suggests that when it comes to crime, the difference between someone who is called a legal immigrant and an illegal one doesn’t seem to matter."
If the data depends on reported crimes, and analysis ignores crimes like fraud, wage theft and other workplace violations, it is probably getting a very narrow picture of crime.
The problem with the concept of "illegal immigrant" is that it creates a class of people who are extremely unlikely to report crimes and thus are targets for exploitation. Notice that the one graph that is tilting "up" - positively correlated (a bit) with illegal immigration - is murder. Murder is one of only a few types of crime that reliably get counted without a complaint from a victim.
Once people are here, denying them legal standing is a recipe for both personal and systematic crime that victimizes those who cannot speak up.
27
@Alan "Once people are here, denying them legal standing is a recipe for both personal and systematic crime that victimizes those who cannot speak up."
Bravo!... (and now some people want to ask citizenship in the Census).
1
@Alan, where is your actual evidence that undocumented immigrants commit murder? Not some anti-immigrant “study,” but hard evidence. Of course there is none. Undocumented immigrants are peace-loving people who abide by the law—unlike white nationalists.
@Alan "Once people are here, denying them legal standing is a recipe for both personal and systematic crime that victimizes those who cannot speak up."
Allowing millions of people to freely disregard our laws is what creates such problems. The only thing these people should be shown is the door. They are victims of their own free will. Our laws on immigration are dictated by the American public not the people who break them.
1
Well of course undocumented workers commit less crime.
The vast majority do not want to risk being deported.
7
@D.A.Oh Or, they are just decent human beings who had to go to drastic measures to save themselves from the crime and violence in their native countries.
1
I generally support immigration and absolutely support the humane treatment of people in a difficult situation.
That said, overall US crime rates have been decreasing so there is a competing factor potentially masking crimes by illegal immigrants. Here in the NV area where we are, there are certainly violent crimes committed by illegal immigrants. Higher than the general population at large? Hard to tell as many immigrants are unable or afraid to report issues.
Clearly a change is needed in our immigration policies no matter where one falls on the political spectrum and there are difficult questions to answer:
1) How many immigrants should be allowed in?
2) Should the system favor immigrants with needed skills?
3) How much financial support should they get?
4) Should the children of illegal immigrants get free college tuition?
5) Should the family of illegal immigrants get free health care?
6) Should the employer of an illegal immigrant face penalties?
What is the total cost of your answers above and are you willing to pay for it in some way e.g. higher taxes? And no, taking every dime from every billionaire in the country does not fund all the proposed programs running around.
Unless someone directly answers (1) through (6) above, they are not serious about addressing immigration issues in this country.
55
@Dan
"overall US crime rates have been decreasing so there is a competing factor potentially masking crimes by illegal immigrants"
That may be applicable to some analyses, but not to this article which does not present time on any axis. Instead, it deals with data over a single block of time, with the degree of undocumented immigrants as variable.
8
@Dan
The small town that I live in has, historically provided medical care for every person who is in the city. City resident, state resident, out of state resident, or undocumented. And, until Nelson Rockefeller, free education through college. Now they have to pay tuition, like everyone else.
That is why the City of New York has a booming economy. We welcome all, and all contribute to our economy. We take to heart Emma Lazarus' words and repeat them.
Give us your huddled masses yearning to breath free. Here the tempest tossed will have an anchor around which to build a new life.
For generations our charities and our city government have provided immigrants with free support, and they have strengthened our city and gone on to strengthen the country. So we have no need to ask those questions.
9
@Eugene We likely agree on a lot but would you care to take a crack at questions (1) through (6) above? Without quantifying what the country should do and spend, it's all just politics with no one putting in the hard work to develop a real solution.
4
We don't know much about "the connection" between crime and illegal immigration because we don't know much about the victimization rates of undocumented immigrants. Whatever crimes are committed by undocumented immigrants, their victims are overwhelmingly other undocumented immigrants. And undocumented immigrants are not likely to contact authorities and report crimes for reasons that should be obvious.
83
@David "Whatever crimes are committed by undocumented immigrants, their victims are overwhelmingly other undocumented immigrants. " If you don't have data to back up this statement, then it is just an assumption.
12
@David
"And undocumented immigrants are not likely to contact authorities and report crimes for reasons that should be obvious."
I believe homicides are a notable exception. For the most part homicides are accurately reported in the US.
6
@David this is a fair point, and certainly I don't want undocumented immigrants victimized. But the people who lament the supposed violence of undocumented immigrants are almost solely concerned about the safety of native born white citizens.
5
The numbers are interesting but the trend lines are linear regressions. In themselves they say relatively little. What are the correlation coefficients, and what are the 2 sigma confidence intervals?
9
@Alternate Identity
I'm pretty sure linear regression a better indication than a mere correlation?
8
@Alternate Identity answer your own question just by looking. clearly the confidence levels would show little to no statistical significance.
7
@Alternate Identity
Linear regression is a correlation-based analysis. It differs from a simple correlation by the ability to enter correlates (or "covariates") in a hypothesis-driven order. If there were a significant, independent effect of immigrant status on crime it would emerge in the analysis.
And, as another commenter noted, anyone familiar with correlation scatter plots can see from the graph that there is just nothing going on...
1
Yes there is a connection. Illegal immigrants are breaking the law by being here undocumented. They are coming into this country illegally so they are breaking the law.
96
@Sarah99 The piece discloses the fact being here without authorization is in itself a crime.
However, the piece is also attempting to provide information that is contradictory to what Trump and his advisers want us to believe-that illegal immigrants are responsible for increases in crime, aside from the illegal immigration issue.
15
@Sarah99 reverting to such a tepid, non-illuminative take in the face of new data (a gift) is so telling on your part. Migration and other such matters of humanity require a far more nuanced conversation. I guess this is the new normal of Trump's America - intellectual dishonesty in defense of cruelty.
24
@Sarah99
Um, Sarah, you need to learn how to read more insightfully. This article isn't about all types of crime.
For example, driving above the speed limit is a crime; but that's not included in these stats either. Because many illegal immigrants don't have licenses/cars, they break that law a lot less frequently than citizens. Using your logic, that stat should also be included in the article.
9
I am not the least bit surprised, but I bet you people who have already decided that illegal immigration leads to higher crime rates will not read this to find out the detailed evidence. We tend to read what already supports our formed opinions.
83
@Rebecca Hogan
Yea, Trump & Peter King are simply waaay more convincing when they just lie about immigration and crime than the proof of the truth written here. Too many words man! Anyway, the failing NYT (despite the recently recorded record profits and subscriptions and all those silly Pulitzers) is all fake news anyway.
2