We can hope that our next president understands the importance of our historical alliances and that the free world can begin to unite each time the totalitarian dictatorship called China tries to extort a single member. China would back down quite quickly from such dishonorable behavior if the free people of the world spoke with a single voice.
Australia sells products that China wants. Why doesn't the US do that?
Alas it is really a pity that the greatest deal maker the world has ever seen never took time to enroll in Economic 101. As his chief economics advisor has recently stated, both sides will suffer!
However as the owner of a medium sized wine producer in Chile, the nincompoop-in-chief has actually helped us. When he choose to throw the CA wine industry under the bus, the small market share that they had in China tended to go to Australia & Chile. As a consequence we are inundated with orders. Good news but not without problems. We are working our finishing line 24/6 & still can scarcely keep up!
2
Here is a simple distinction between the US and China which makes the choice really clear. One elects a President every four years in one of the better forms of democracy in the world. The other is a one party state ruled by a communist President who abolished his term limit. Which nation would you prefer in the long run?
1
Trumpists would prefer the latter.
2
The rise of Trump and his tweeting diplomacy need to factor in to these perspectives. Special relationships, whomever they are with, need trust,respect, nurturing and clarity about common goals.
Trust and respect are anathema to Emperor Trump and his coteries. In fitting with the old adage cutting off one’s nose to spite the face, he has insulted and bullied his best friends like Canada, Germany and the UK; walked out of agreements like the TPP, befriended right wing heads of states like Hungary, Israel and others.
Let’s admit it - this is the end of western post war liberal world order painfully built by the OECD and the original G5 nations. What is to replace it? I only see a deep dark abyss with petro-states and communist dictatorship lurking in the peripheries. I am worried for my grandchildren and that generation.
2
This is an important article. It highlights how the global marketplace has changed over the years. It should provide the reader an insight into how important, multi-level trade agreements like the Trans Pacific Partnership are to all the member Countries involved. Trump, tore it up, because it was an Obama idea; but Japan, South Korea, Austrailia, Canada, Mexico and other countries joined it. The U.S. lost a lot of trade leverage with other countries by not being in it and alienating our long time allies by imposing tariffs on their goods. Trump, pooh poohs, the WTO, but the U.S. has won over 40 cases brought to the WTO, on unfair trading practices by China.
The U.S. marketplace is not the only game in town. American products are the most expensive in the World, because of the strength of the dollar. China is a HUGE marketplace, with 25% of the Worlds population, a growing middle class, and the second largest economy in the World. China is also our largest creditor. They buy more of our U.S. treasury bonds than any other country in the World. Forty years ago, we would see television reports from China, with thousands of people on bicycles, not anymore. Now we see movies like "Crazy Rich Asians", you get the idea? The proverbial shoe is on the other foot now. We can't bully China, and we can't roll over either. What the U.S. needs to do is reach out to other countries for support in negotiations with China, not isolate ourselves.
2
This is an important article, because it hasn’t penetrated here that we’re no longer the only game in town. The subtext to the trade war with China is that we can demand whatever we want because we’re IT. In fact we’re minimizing our leverage by going it alone. We’re 18% of Chinese exports, same as the EU.
China is already the biggest economy in the world and growing faster than ours. We’re so used to the advantages of our huge home market that we can’t imagine it’s not permanent. So we do crazy things like relaxing environmental standards on cars, so our companies can be noncompetitive elsewhere. Or leaving the carriers to drag their feet on 5G mobile, because we don’t have to worry too much about who’s doing stuff elsewhere.
2
Not only Australia but the whole world is moving on. The USA has ruled during economic growth after WW2 but it has used its weapons and menaces too many times, destabilizing many parts of the world. The American dream is only that - a dream.
Both Dem and GOP in the US seem overwhelmingly encouraging paranoia about China. It is about more than IP, that could have been resolved by now. It is about tech and other rivalry. Hegemony. The wars started by the US and its warmongering with Iran let alone its own internal issues takes away from it trying to be a moral superior . Further Trump vandalised multilateralism that benefited all of us in exchange for unilateral Trump deals and this at the the cost of countries like mine. Obtained by thuggery. I am backing a Labor Gvt win on Saturday and hoping that results in a more independent Australian position on China.
3
I spent a year cruising the coast of Australia a few years ago and, as a result, made a lot of friends that I still maintain an active correspondence with.
The Australian economy is locked into the Chinese trade a lot closer than just the wine export business. China also buys a lot of Australian coal and Iron Ore.
The largest number of cargo ships that I saw anywhere in the world were those in the waiting area outside Newcastle on the east coast of Australia. The automatic identification system transmitters on most of those ships indicated their Chinese origin or destination.
My Australian friends worry that their economy is so dependent on China but they also express a lot of frustration with America's decisions regarding international commerce. Aussies like Americans but dont understand the reasoning behind what they view as stupid decisions and, therefore are loosing confidence in the United States as a trading partner.
But long before the current administration Australia was locked into China as its most important trading partner. Much of the quality of middle class life in Australia is dependent on the revenue connected to exports of raw materials to China.
Australia also imports a lot of finished goods from China.
The definition of a "Colony" is a place that exports raw materials and imports finished goods. In that sense Australia is a Colony of China.
4
@John Lewis in that somewhat simplistic sense, the US and just about the whole world is a colony of China...
This US posturing about China - haven't we seen all this before? Back in the 1980s it was Japan which was deemed a threat to US economic dominance, until Japan was forced to boost the value of its currency against the U.S. dollar.
It is not just Chinese but Asian economies in general which will surely dominate the world, so we had all better just get used to it. Certainly Mike Pompeo rushing around the world trying to bully allies doesn't help at all. When the chips are down, I would would bet Asian countries will stick together.
5
An article that somehow misses much of the worrying anti-Chinese hissing that is going on in a not so sotto voce way in Australia. Ethnically Chinese Australians are in fact quite concerned at the implications for their own security, while, sure, comments stop just short of outright vicious.
5
China's rise as a consumer is good for the global economy. It is China's proclivity to stealing intellectual property that is unacceptable.
Mr Trump is the only leader willing to step up to the plate. Biden apparently thinks that China is no foe and if they steal our crown jewels so what?
Much as I dislike Trump, I wish him well in this critical battle.
Now is the time to take on China --- we cannot idly standby while they extort businesses one at a time.
1
@Rudran
Industrial espionage has been around since forever. Businesses, regardless of country, are forever stealing each other's stuff.
6
@narena olliver Look no further than the Middle East for an example of an ally of the USA that steals IP, and is said to resell stolen IP, while still getting the full support of American conservatives. A public posture of 'muscular response' to any perceived threats is reminiscent of the president that gave us the World Trade Agreement with China, and trillion dollar wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Same as Trump, that president did not do nuance. The muscularity was and is theatrics that plays well only in the short run.
3
Don't forget about the Huaqiao communities and their secret ties to Beijing.
1
When it comes to wine ,wheat ,corn, mineral ,yes, China is the main customer of Australia and as a matter of fact USA, too.
But when it comes to common value. Australia will back USA for sure. The effect of Chinese business man Huang , who tried to interfere with Australian politic, is still rippling, lest we forget.
6
Australia will always be so thankful for the support of the US and its citizens during WW2. This was reciprocated by Australia in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.
We believe the current administration does not respect its allies and the strength of strategic alliances with other democratic countries however we hope this will be temporary.
We have travelled frequently and extensively in the US and found Americans to be very generous hosts. We have thoroughly enjoyed our time there.
We look forward to returning once the US re-engages in its world leadership rolethat has been so lacking in recent years.
10
«But that strong pull also reflects recent steps by the United States to undermine institutions that Americans themselves helped create to guide the global economic system.» If one's goal is to peaceably resolve conflicts in this realm, the obvious steps to take are to utilise and where necessary strengthen those international institutions, but alas, the current US government - and the so-called «opposition», cf Charles Ellis Schumer's recent admonition to Mr Trump to «hang tough on China» - seems determine to dismantle them. The WTO, for example, has been rendered nugatory by US obstruction and policy reduced the issuing of all manner of «bans», «sanctions» and tariff wars, as if the lessons of the Smoot-Hawley tariff of 17 June 1930 have been completely erased from the memories of policy makers....
No wonder Australia - and many other countries - are now finding themselves compelled to review their foreign relations and reorient their trade and economic policies....
Henri
2
@mhenriday Allow me to correct the inadvertent omission of the particle «to», which has rendered one sentence above difficult to understand : «and policy reduced the issuing of all manner of «bans», «sanctions» and tariff wars ...» → «and policy reduced to the issuing of all manner of «bans», «sanctions» and tariff wars ...»
Henri
When I was a young college kid on summer break, I resumed skydiving at a jump club far away from my college club. A group of Aussie pilots and skydivers from its military were stationed in the U.S. They took me in.
These men and women were perhaps the best human beings in every way imaginable. I will never forget them and their friendship.
If Australia ever needs a yank’s help, I’m all in. These are truly great people worth keeping as friends and allies.
9
Australian wine producers should be a bit wary of the Chinese market. Look what is happening to Canadian sellers of pork and canola to China in face of the detention of the Hwahwei VP.
It only takes one "political" mistake by a once friendly country against China to have huge amounts of exports shut out of China.
The Chinese won't even dialogue with the Canadians to resolve the issue. They don't (and won't) play by the international rules of diplomacy and trade. So Aussie friends, please don't put too much of your excellent wine in the China basket.
8
@HKHoward
indeed, but canada has plenty of time to rectify it. canada knew the huawei issue between china and the us is political. instead they waited and thought china wont do much to retaliate for taking a high profile person.
now canada shall face the wrath of either china or us if canada doesnt comply if either. pity that canada has to be the one that gets made an example of to any other countries that takes orders from us in the ongoing geostrategic competition between us and china.
this is beneficial for china because it shows to the world there will be consequences if you get yourselves involved as a lapdog to washington in the ongoing dispute.
5
@barte The entire US Intelligence Community has assessed Huawei as a threat based on concrete evidence. It is far from a made-up political issue.
3
@HKHoward
It was a HUGE "mistake" the Canadians made. They didn't think enough on the consequences. Silly them. Australians are more savvy on these matters because they have been dealing with China far far longer than the Canadians had
Presumes an economically inevitable and benign China both meriting scrutiny.
Australia fought against fascism in WW2, but now their elites are keen on backing Xi, the greatest fascist of our times. All to make a quick buck, while the country is on its way to becoming a Chinese colony. China already interferes with the Australian democractic process to an extent that should alarm any Australian with a pulse.
Luckily, the majority of Australian people love America and what it stands for. The bond will not be broken.
7
@True Norwegian
Thank you. Vice versa.
2
These comments are absurd. As Mr. Irwin says, Australian governments ( all of the federal and state governments ) take a very cautious approach to China, not one that is " keen on backing Xi ".
China has become our largest trading partner to the benefit of all Australians. This does not reflect " making a quick buck "but rather the benefits of Australia having resources that China is willing to buy, to the benefit of both countries, something that is likely to flourish in the years ahead.
As far as Australia being "on its way to becoming a Chinese colony" is concerned. Australia as well as the USA has a multicultural society and through a longstanding immigration program has been and will continue to successfully integrate people from all over the world, including from China.
Chinese Australians represent a very small percentage
of our population and make a wonderful contribution to our economy and its ethnic diversity.
Australian governments have for some years recognised threats to our democratic processes from other countries and put in place appropriate measures to counteract such threats, as has the USA.
America has lost much of its standing in the world, a direct result of your President and his policies supported by the Republican Party.
While I agree that the bond between our countries will not be broken, allies such as Australia are becoming increasingly bewildered and wonder what will become of America.
11
There is a TV show on either Netflix or Amazon Prime that has this issue at its core. It's called "Secret City" and is quite good. Evidently its creators were well aware of this situation. Of course this is a fictionalized version of the relationship of China, Australia and the US. But it's a good drama and illuminating.
5
Australia's pivot toward China and reappraisal of its relationship with the United States are being reflected in Australian Broadcasting Corporation programming. Watch Australian series such as Pine Gap and Secret City (both on Netflix) to see how the distrust towards American actions and motivations and subsequent reliance on China, its security policies, and Chinese markets, are treated. This change in attitude should be concerning to all Americans since Australia has heretofore been a stalwart ally.
3
China’s United Front affiliates in Australia have infiltrated the news media and broadcast media. It is a megaphone for Beijing. Chinese businesses have purchased media outlets in Australia to promote the party’s propaganda. The Aussies and Chinese Aussies know this.
7
@Charles Denman
In some instances, yes, although please rest assured that the Netflix series "Pine Gap" cited above had no Chinese influence or infiltration at all ... nor did it have any influence from either left-wing or right-wing politics in Australia - although it has been accused by various people at various times of all three. Nonetheless one of the outcomes we hoped to achieve (within a piece of informed entertainment) was to generate this sort of debate. Australia and America have been and are great allies and Australia's national interests and America's national interests have a lot in common - but they are not identical. And we are essentially in Asia (one of our strategic benefits to America) ... and there are some very plausible scenarios that may well play out in the near future that may force us to 'pick a side' when we would rather not if it can be avoided. So we may as well face up to that and think about the consequences (either way) of that now... if only to help us be careful to avoid that very situation if we can.
There are no economic allies, only military ones. So talking about allies, Mr. Irwin ought to look at the military side
Which is the opposite
"Australia and New Zealand React to China's Growing
Influence in the South Pacific"
July 26, 2018 (IN10938)
The July 24, 2018, Australia-United States Ministerial (AUSMIN) Joint Statement points to "deepening engagement [between the United States and Australia] in the Indo-Pacific."
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IN10938.pdf
1
Australia will be economically Finlandized by China.
4
@Mark Dobias
FInland's doing fine last anyone looked ....
TRaditionally we trusted the USA and feared China. Now with the great orange one in charge we trust neither.
9
Trust the U.S.
Australia is near and dear in our hearts.
No harm will ever come to Australia while we are standing behind and next to you.
4
@Charles Denman The Night President's 'America First' suggests otherwise with his disdain for long established alliances and institutions and love of Dictators surely signalling end of empire....
4
Australia is well on it's way to become a Chinese colony if they don't reinstitute the White Australia policy.
2
@NJ
Well, that's not going to happen, but Australia has to embrace its roots. They have long forsaken those foundational principles in the name of 'multiculturalism' which is a destructive force.
1
@NJ
Australia was, and is, and will be, someone's colony:
-- British to their bootstraps
-- then it was 'all the way with LBJ'
-- and now it's China, the influence from there being draconian 'anti terrorist' legislation.
The last batch includes governments being able to call out the Army to gun down anyone who defies them.
Out very own Tienanmen Massacre.
President Obama could navigate in this world. Donald is lost at sea.
3
@Jim1648
Couldn’t navigate from the dock
3
@Charlie D.
It is Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), where we lead, versus One Belt, One Road where Donald turns the world over to the Chinese.
If it is a choice between Donald and the Chinese, I know which one the world will choose.
3
@Jim1648
Australia's leanings today have NOTHING to do with DJT, this is a decade long shift. Of course most NYT's readers, being left, see every world issue as the fault of Trump. Insignificant in this case.
3
The uncultured guy in the WH is ignorant of history and geography. He channels the ignorance and hubris of the uneducated American public. This will not end well for anyone.
4
@h king
Especially for him, his sycophants and family
2
The smart approach....moving away from too much US dependence, especially with 40% of a country that still support a dangerous and irresponsible"buffoon" as president. Trump is not the main problem: McConnell has been the real culprit for years.....and still, coward Republicans keep him in the Senate.
The most important issue in 2020: the Senate.
Amazing how a Senator representing a few million voters has he same power as a Senator of California, Texas, Florida or New York. The main problem is not the College Electoral Vote but the inequalities in the Senate. And we dare to lecture others about our so-called democracy....
5
The article fails to discuss these factors in the relationship between China and Australia:
1. Australia’s real estate collapse is due to many factors, including the exodus of Chinese investors.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-07/how-a-chinese-exodus-is-exacerbating-australia-s-property-slump
2. Australia’s fear of China’s debt book diplomacy to increase their influence in the South Pacific.
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/us-secret-report-china-debt-trap-on-australias-doorstep-20180513-h0zzwd
3. China’s extensive espionage activities inside Australia.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/foreign-spies-are-infiltrating-australia-with-unprecedented-espionage-and-interference-activities/news-story/37893eaff53164f054ba7c415139b91d
2
This is what happens when you are unable to make friends and just order everyone else around.
3
China is written in chinese character 中国 which means Middle Kingdom. Throughout history, they have been thinking they reside in the center of the world until the shameful defeat in Opium War. After 150 years of perseverance, now they are thinking they should once again control the world. Don't get deceived by their smile and the promise of friendship. The Western countries know China only last 150 years but we Japanese know them for over 2000 years. Their Sinocentrism is in their blood. For example, if you read their internet novels, there are many science fiction stories in which the heroes with science knowledge go back in time and China defeat the West and control the whole world. They are only reflecting their subconscious, their deep desire to revenge the last 150 years of colonial and subordinate status and once again being the center of the world. Be very carful!
4
@T.Kondo
At least we are not invade the world like Japan
3
Japan murdered 300,000 unarmed and defenseless women and children in Nanking in WWII and conducted gruesome and horribly sadistic experiments on Chinese civilians in Manchuria, including live vivisection, rapes, purposeful infections of diseases and rapes. Japan experimenters/sadists called the Chinese victims “logs”. The U.S. fought for China in that war. China was our ally. It is Japan that should be ashamed and worried about China’s rise. A Chinese desire for revenge is understandable. But it must be averted at all costs.
10
Australians and Americans fought together long before World War 2. In fact, the first offensive battle fought by American troops in World War 1 occurred when U. S. Soldiers came under the command of Lieutenant General John Monash, the commander of the Australian Corps, in the Battle of Le Hamel on 4 July 1918.
5
Personally, I think the sooner Australia distances itself both militarily and security wise from the USA the better. Unfortunately this will not happen.
Oz has already been drawn into several immoral and ill fated wars as the lickspittle of the USA.
The current POTUS seems intent on intervention in Venezuela and Iran. In both cases it is "all about the oil, stupid". Inevitably Australia's right wing governments (one far right, the other centre right) will sign up to another doomed cause where millions die.
These are not good times.
6
Despite Trump's idiocy that everything is a zero sum competition, China understands that they can only keep growing and remain strong if they have strong, wealthy partners to trade with.
We need a president and Congress who remember that building bridges makes us stronger than walling ourselves off.
Let's let America be America again.
3
Trump is a bigger problem than China.
7
Neil Irwin observed that Aussie politicians avoid "the bellicose anti-China language". Perhaps.
In most NY Times articles about US-China trade war, there are obligatory passages, e.g. in this very article, China's "...opaque government action and allegations of intellectual property theft, ... ", or in Ana Swanson & Keith Bradsher article titled U.S.-China Trade Standoff : "... tactics it uses to get ahead, including state-sponsored hacking, acquisitions of high-tech companies in the United States and Europe, subsidies to crucial industries and discrimination against foreign companies...." Even the respected Paul Krugman can't help inserting: "... China is neither an ally nor a democracy, and it is in many ways a bad actor in world trade. ..."
These are standard labels thrown at China to remind readers what side they should be on. Will these accusations stick? Sure, repetitions always work in marketing for a segment of the target audience.
Let's see if USA's 5-eyes partners all buy into the "Yellow Peril" must be stopped narrative. So far among this English speaking alliance, Australia and New Zealand followed USA's lead and rejected Huawei. UK seems to be hedging big time. Canada is clearly not saying much these days with a Huawei hostage stuck in Vancouver, and rape-seeds left expiring in storage bins. Neil Irwin got it right, ultimately there is a China purchase order to consider.
4
A nation that began as a white British Empire penal colony on land stolen from brown aboriginal pioneers has the wrong things in common with America.
America was built by enslaved black African labor on land stolen from brown Native American pioneers.
Australia sells uranium to the nuclear weapons ethnic sectarian supremacist rogue nation India. America sells arms to the nuclear weapons ethnic sectarian supremacist rogue nation Israel.
Australia is geographically a lot closer to China and India than America. But Australia is deeply different from an ethnic sectarian national origin basis from every nation state in Asia and the Indo- Pacific region.
America's closest English speaking cultural nation state allies are Canada and the United Kingdom. Australia can never occupy that niche.
3
this reminds me of the Defense White Paper Utopia episode "so what you're saying is we're trying to protect our trade *with* China ... *from* China...?"
1
Apologies if this point has been made. The phrase,
"opaque government action and allegations of intellectual property theft"
is not intellectually honest. It is a journalistic euphemism.
1
In 1942, Australia was an ally strategically placed for the U.S. to use to stage it’s roll back of the Japanese Empire. Great Britain was a staging area to oppose Germany. Without them, we could never have achieved the victories which ended the fascist imperial powers. Without the Soviet Union there would have been no victory over Nazi Germany. The U.S. needed allies to win WWII and needs them still. It’s unfortunate that Trump and the people to who he listens are so foolish about the reality of power and war.
2
What most commentaries here seem to focus upon is economics, including access to a diverse spectrum of goods. What virtually everyone ignores is the fact that they're cozying up to a communist country. A communist party that controls virtually all aspects of Chinese life. They recently had a short news clip on a national news network and can also be found on the WWW including; https://futurism.com/china-social-credit-system-rate-human-value/ the Chinese people are becoming widely monitored and "graded" upon their appropriate behavior. People with poor "social credit" have few opportunities and are even restricted in travel, etc.
Western-like nations are in fact pumping billions of dollars into a communist regime that shows no sign of relenting on human rights and freedoms. Thus the rest of the world is fueling the strength and potential to spread Chinese-style communism. All for the sake of personal wealth and access to many, many products the world doesn't really need or could produce themselves.
According to Sun-Tzu [someone the Chinese highly respect] the Chinese government believes; "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting." If you believe like perhaps Nixon, Clinton and their capitalist cohorts like Milton Freidman that free-trade with democratize China, well, you might be a fool.
1
This article states -
“There are about 165,000 Chinese-born students in Australian universities, a crucial revenue source.”
This revenue source carries with it the threat of covert, corrupting and coercive influence of United Front operatives directing Chinese students, often under Confucius Institutes and Chinese Students and Scholars associations on campuses in many countries, including Australia, NZ, the U.S. and Taiwan.
Australian author Clive Hamilton wrote in “Silent Invasion” (2018):
“On 24 April 2008, the Olympic torch arrived in Canberra on the last leg of its worldwide relay in preparation for the Beijing Games. I went along to the lawns outside Parliament House to lend quiet support to the Tibetan protesters. I had no idea what I was walking into. Tens of thousands of Chinese students had arrived early and their mood was angry and aggressive. As the torch approached, the pro-Tibet protesters, vastly outnumbered, were mobbed and abused by a sea of Chinese people wielding red flags. Everyday Australians who’d turned up complained later that they were jostled, kicked and punched. Some were told that they had no right to be there. The police presence was too small to maintain order and I feared a riot would break out and people would be severely beaten or worse.”
3
policies.
“There are about 165,000 Chinese-born students in Australian universities, a crucial revenue source.”
Australian author Clive Hamilton wrote in “Silent Invasion” (2018):
“On 24 April 2008, the Olympic torch arrived in Canberra on the last leg of its worldwide relay in preparation for the Beijing Games. I went along to the lawns outside Parliament House to lend quiet support to the Tibetan protesters. I had no idea what I was walking into. Tens of thousands of Chinese students had arrived early and their mood was angry and aggressive. As the torch approached, the pro-Tibet protesters, vastly outnumbered, were mobbed and abused by a sea of Chinese people wielding red flags. Everyday Australians who’d turned up complained later that they were jostled, kicked and punched. Some were told that they had no right to be there. The police presence was too small to maintain order and I feared a riot would break out and people would be severely beaten or worse.”
2
“What is sensible for Australia’s economy and geopolitics means that what was once a special relationship with the United States is no longer quite so special.”
Gríma Wormtongue never spoke more eloquently.
Money dictates partnership. America learns a lesson she has promoted since the middle of the 19th Century.
2
It seems just about everyone is willing to sell their soul for a buck. Does anyone look back at the American Civil War and think “Hey, the United States should have maintained their economic relationship with the Confederate States. That relationship was perfectly complementary! Confederate states had super-cheap labor with which to export cotton, and they needed finished goods from the North!” Give me a break.
2
China has and is subverting Australia’s, Taiwan’s and New Zealand’s democracies using “corrupting, covert and coercive techniques” according to these governments and as described in a well documented report authored by the “U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission”.
China does this in the United States and Canada as well, using its state-controlled propaganda agency known as the United Front Work Department and its affiliates, including Confucius Institutes and other fronts.
China has subverted the politics in these countries and others as part of a strategy to neutralize future opposition to China’s foreign policies. China directs businesses in those countries run by Chinese patriots to make large donations to candidates under the control or influence of China. It buys media outlets to spin the party line to China’s diaspora. It activates foreign students to demonstrate and sometimes riot violently against peaceful demonstrations about Tibet, the Falun Gong and Taiwan.
If you are interested, I recommend a very well written book (“Silent Invasion”, 2018) by Clive Hamilton, an Aussie, who has often spoken at think tanks and is on YouTube. Two publishers declined to publish his book for fear of annoying China.
The New York Times and the Economist have reported well on these political influence campaigns meant to harm liberal democratic political systems. The threat is unrelenting and well funded by the Chinese Communist Party.
3
@Charlie D. you highlight a real risk re. subversion of democratic norms and values, but in NZ at least, our politics have had less untoward influence (and gerrymandering) than the US' have from internal sources alone, let alone foreign actors! There are some concerns about some minor political donations from resident Chinese business figures, and of course, more subversive tactics which every government tries not to publicise...
But if we're honest a couple of Confucius institutes which have no official academic affiliation to our universities, and a few political donations pales in comparison to what we've seen in the news about US superPACs, Russian Facebook campaigns and other tools of influence which, wealthy individuals, corporations and foreign states use to subvert the US' status as a liberal democracy with supposedly-free-and-fair elections. Let alone beginning to talk about electoral gerrymandering? We have an independent electoral commission to set electorate boundaries here?! I believe AUS is similar.
Chinese influence is certainly on the radar here, and in Oz, as evidenced by the rhetoric adopted by our politicians - and it absolutely should be taken seriously, due to demography and economic power if nothing else. We both trade with China, as does the US, but that's not quite capitulating to an authoritarian state, is it? Nor is it becoming a colony, just yet... while cause for concern, let's keep this in the realm of reality.
From the article "Australian and American troops fought together in World War II"
How quickly we forget!!! American and Chinese troops also fought together in World War II. Long before the US formally declared war against the Axis, General Claire Chenault was leading the Flying Tigers keeping supplies moving over the 'Hump' and General 'Vinegar' Joe Stilwell was working (albeit not particularly well) with Generalissimo Chiang Kai Shek. China was an American ally against Japan. Many older Chinese still have warm feeling towards towards America because of the help they received during what they call the "Anti-Japanese War".
China is America's economic rival... but we have not had any military conflict (excluding cyber warfare in which all countries now participate) with China since the end of the Vietnam war, 45 years ago. Yet, Americans seem to regard China as the enemy. I don't see this changing as both Republicans AND Democrats delight in China-bashing. It's the one thing in which both parties are united.
2
Australia gives a nice window into the kind of society America could be if its policies were to treat other nations with respect instead of being so hellbent on world domination.
1
@Joe
If all you are is a hammer, your world is only nails
1
Why would any long-term ally of the US ever fully trust us again after experiencing the bullying hyper-nationalistic policies of the Trump administration. Almost every long-standing ally of the US has been insulted and browbeaten by Trump and Company.
They also look at how Trump demeans Americans by essentially saying to h..l with the Paris Agreement; with regulations on pollution; with regulations on guns; with universal health care; with the peril of invasive species that threaten the environment, health, and national security; with the poor, the disabled, and the disenfranchised; and with fighting racism, sexism, jingoism, and bigotry.
Any US ally would have to be a fool at this point in history to put their trust in the word, good will, and decency of the US when it comes to its future.
PS: When our long-term allies look at the unwillingness of the Democratic opposition to strongly condemn the jingoistic policies of Trump and see the failure of our system of checks and balances to counter this autocratic sociopathic president, they have no choice but to reconfigure their foreign policy in relation to the US.
3
Some one has been watching Pine Gap on netflix😂
Strategic interest are more significant than economic
From the Times, UK Feb 12 2019
"Australia buys attack submarines to counter Chinese aggression in Pacific"
"Australia has signed a multibilliondollar deal with the French state-backed shipbuilder Naval Group for 12 attack-class submarines aimed at countering China’s militarisation in the Pacific.
The agreement, which will cost AU$50 billion (£28 billion), was heralded by Scott Morrison, the prime minister, as “part of Australia’s biggest-ever peacetime investment in defence”.
The French Press was more direct. Australia is spending $ 36 Billion (Billion not million) to defend against Chinese military expansion
Mr. Irwiins's analysis on Australia US relation, leaving out the far more more important strategic and military sector is dead wrong
Australia needs the US to counter China's Naval expansion
1
Looks like the American President's wall building is running apace. I speak of the wall made of tariffs and tweets he builds around America to separate the country from the rest of the world.
4
Australia could play a leading role in mediating positive outcomes between the US and China. Australia has the potential to be an instrument of peace and international cooperation between the two nations.
6
Thank you New York Times. Having lived and worked extensively in Asia, the same points about China being the economic partner and the US being the defense partner could be made about any number of countries in Asia - Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand to name a few. All of these countries are doing their best to ensure their actions and media do not offend China in order to keep doing business with China. My point is everyone in the region is playing their cards close to the vest.
2
While geography is surely a consideration, as is Australia’s independent nature. However, it would be wrong to ignore the contempt with which the current administration of the United States jettisons long-standing and deep friendships as a factor. Canadians know this, our mutually beneficial relationship with the United States has been thrown under the bus. Australians know it as well.
4
Trump's trade policies and tariffs damage China and in turn damage Australia because of our trade relationship with China. In addition, Trump's tariffs hurt Australia directly. Australia is not alone with these issues.
Over many years, Australia has gone to great lengths to appease the US for the sake of our security. But under Trump, I feel that that there is now no real commitment from the US. Trump would abandon Australia in the blink of an eye if he thought it would win votes for him or dollars for his elites.
For Trump's America, there can only be one winner in its interactions with other countries, whether it's trade or security. Increasingly, I see that stance as being no different to China's.
Do we prefer to be bullied by America or China? Neither, but increasingly, I see America's influence becoming more negative. However, we need to manage our relationship with China very carefully. And we need to recognise that our relationship with the US under Trump is written on very thin biodegradable paper.
4
We have been the most loyal of loyal partners and allies, fighting and dying in critical battles and others we should never have entered, yet we did for our ally. The first conversation Trump had with our Prime Minister he yelled, abused and hung up the phone. The walk away from the TPP abandoned an historic effort to cement fair trade, IP protection and rule of law in the region. America then starts adding tariffs to friends. It’s immensely saddening to see America walk back its leadership, both moral and real...and as a small nation, we’ve had the rude awakening that America First means just that and we can’t rely on our friend like we used to.
10
@Richard - perhaps, but remember that the TPP would not have been unequivocally good for smaller nations... it came with its own problems, and no small amount of protest here across the Tasman.
The cost-benefit in NZ was purportedly still positive when it was being negotiated, but it would have come with a lot of IP restrictions in favour of US pharmaceutical companies, to keep certain generic drugs off the market for a longer time that NZ or AUS patent laws allow, potentially increasing healthcare costs in some areas, and further entrenching additional ISDS provisions - allowing (probably US) companies to take legal action against Australia, NZ, or other sovereign signatories, if for example, they didn't like their cigarette packaging laws - remember Philip Morris Asia Limited v. Commonwealth of Australia...? Free trade on other (minor) exports might outweigh those legal costs, but they were borne by the Australian taxpayer - including me, actually as I was living in Melbourne at the time..!
1
If Trump has berated countries for an imbalance in trade with the U.S. as an excuse to bring tariffs to the bargaining table, then Australia having run a deficit on trade for decades with the U.S. should be able to impose tariffs on U.S. products but we know that would never happen since Trump is all "America first" and long term allies are hung out to dry.
2
It’s true that our economic ties with China are critically important to Australia. We are part of Asia/Pacific so its only natural that we look inwards to where we live. This is what Labour Prime Minister Paul Keating told us many years ago and thankfully the message is getting through. Although our ANZUS treaty, cultural and trading ties with the US is still very important, the current US President has redefined “Unilateralism” to something that almost excludes others, so it leaves me thinking that Australia doesn’t rate a mention in the corridors of Washington. So what does that mean for the long term relationship between the US and Australia? That will be revealed after the next Presidential election in 2020.
3
While geography is surely a consideration, as is Australia’s independent nature. However, it would be wrong to ignore the contempt with which the current administration of the United States jettisons long-standing and deep friendships as a factor. Canadians know this, our mutually beneficial relationship with the United States has been thrown under the bus. Australians know it as well.
American ally? Does it mean sending our soldiers to war and coming home with PTSD and related problems, breaking up families and impacting children - our next generation? I don’t know which is worse - trade with China or pretend we’re contributing as allies.
4
I for one welcome a world in which the US will be forced to come to its senses, give up this pointless and delusional role of being world policeman and a country that exists on exporting its debt while existing on consumer goods made elsewhere. It may force us to retrench and look inward where so much needs to be done that has been neglected. It may force others who have freeloaded on US military presence to think harder about what they must do to protect their own sovereignty in the face of rising threats of its loss. Yes, the balance of world power has changed from the post WWII years, and we and others must adjust to that reality. The calendar moves only forward, never backward.
2
Chinese influence in Oz and NZ is not a minor concern for many of us - not the least due to simple demographics - but it has been consistently portrayed (ingenuously or not) as a minor issue relative to the significant economic relations we have with China (circa 25% of exports from NZ, and closer to 30% from Oz). NZ was the first country to sign a free trade deal with China, and Australia not far behind...
But our governments have not been not completely naive; this has been free trade with eyes open - the Chinese state is hardly a benign actor when it comes to its own citizens or to sovereign foreign nations, and the rhetoric from Oz and NZ politicians reflects this... but Chinese influence re. its demography and economic power in the APAC region is genuinely something to be concerned about, if the CCP continues to try to influence sovereign foreign nations unduly, if more subtly than the IS’ preferred methods... China’s rise is simply a strategic risk which needs addressing given our dependence on it as an export market, but our misaligned values relative to liberal democracy and rule of law....
It will be a tough balancing act either way with China’s continued rise and exports of people and technology, but the US’ continuous wars of aggression, and Trump and Republicans’ inward focus towards populism, tariffs and bullying tactics, to the exclusion of longtime geopolitical allies like Oz and NZ and even Canada have not made finding this balance any easier...
4
Since the 1990s Australians have thought of themselves as part of Asia and realigned their trade relationships accordingly. When Britain joined the EU the old ties with the Commonwealth began disintegrating and with them th old WW2 loyalties. While most of us would prefer American hegemony over that of China the untrustworthiness and chaotic approach of the current American government doesn't inspire fealty.
4
From the moment Nixon met with Chineses leaders, businesses in the U.S. and likely America’s allies, anticipated a huge market for every kind of product. With industrialization China could become the greatest market yet known. It’s happening. This is where the shift from the biggest maker of goods becomes the greatest buyer. Instead of Chinese making their fortunes from U.S. consumers, they begin to sell to Chinese and then their standard of living rises and goods from the U.S. begin to become competitive. But the main thing is everyone wants to sell to Chinese who can buy their products in huge amounts.
The U.S. market cannot remain the biggest indefinitely. That’s why globalization is the best news long term even if it is not in the short run for the U.S.
1
I lived in Australia in 1981-82, and again from 1996-2001. In those times Australia stuck pretty tight to the UK and the USA in trading and cultural norms. I've returned to Australia various times since, the last time in Feb. 2019, and every time the country is more and more oriented to China. Housing is now focused on dense, high rise condos popular in the massive cities of China, the transportation system is overloaded and food and general retail is more and more oriented to the Chinese buyer. Australia itself is becoming more and more of an Asian city......dense, overcrowded and ever more expensive. Whether this helps the typical Aussie 'battler' who forms the middle class is doubtful, they are being priced out of housing, education and many elements of historical Australian society. Australia is being pulled into the Asian orbit, hard and fast.
2
While the US is now using a stick in negotiating with other countries, China has been using carrots and cash for quite some time. I have travelled the world and see China's influence everywhere. They have bought up real estate in Vancouver and changed its complexion. They are building hydroelectric plants in Laos, ports in Sri Lanka and high speed railways in Kenya. They are generous partners, but they employ their own and if you can't pay in the end (Sri Lanka) they're happy to lease your operation. They have kids in school in every country, learning the English language and technology. They own grocery stores in Jamaica and dairy farms in Australia, they have partnerships in Brazil, Argentina and Chile. Europeans build cars and airplanes there, through partnerships. Malaysia has already declared it's been colonized by China and Cambodia has been bought. Their actions in the South China Sea, indicate they have no intention of slowing down. China is wooing the countries that the US is alienating. The US no longer has moral authority, look at our leaders. American exceptionalism has become a joke around the world. We have a liar in the White House and the only people smiling are Russia and the China. We should be careful what we wish for, this will be the Chinese century and they don't necessarily play fair. Thanks Mr. Trump.
6
@thewriterstuff
And China holds Port Darwin in the NW Territory of Australia for the next 99 years. That is the U.S. Navy’s southern flank in the Pacific and hosts a few thousand U.S. Marines. A Chinese businessman with ties to Beijing bought the lease when no one was looking. China buys a civilian port then modifies it for the Chinese Navy and Coast Guard.
2
From the article: "...what was once a special relationship with the United States is no longer quite so special..."
And why should this be surprising? We have a president who thinks nothing of bashing our allies, countries like the UK with which we have the longest standing "special relationship."
2
The Trump administration has done nothing like "struggled to build a global coalition of allies in its trade war with China." In fact, it is consistently hostile to global coalitions and is quick to sanction, belittle, and undermine its allies. Former allies have learned that to rely on the U.S. is folly and that making connections elsewhere is essential.
5
Memo to people of the democracies in Australia and New Zealand:
Trump will be gone soon enough. He wasn't elected to break up with our century-long friends and allies; he's doing this on his own, maybe with a few fringies. When he's gone, things will revert to something close to before he came along.
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But once you start trading freedom for some short term economic benefits, nowadays under the threat of economic extortion by Beijing, that's *never* coming back. The fact that you even talk about that now shows how Beijing has made you dependent on them for money. That's a horrible position to be in.
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So when some of your people start telling you not to worry about what Beijing represents to humanity, look to see how those people make their living. They've almost all got a stake in doing business with the Beijing mob.
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You see already how Beijing views you. That's only going to get worse the more you go down that road with them.
5
How could anyone follow a man (or country) who doesn't understand the difference between a tax and a tariff ? Or is completely happy to lie about it to his base.
2
Australians are smart enough to realize that China poses a grave threat to their future as a democracy. China is in no way comparable to the US or other advanced democracies. In time, India and the US will become allies to contain the devastating threat to modernity and freedom posed by the dictators in Beijing.
2
@rjs7777
If you think India and democracy goes together, then you are quite wrong.
India still has an archaic institutionalized caste system where those that are categorized as "dalits", are oftern relegated to the lowliest of professions with no hope of upward mobility. They make up over 100 million of the population, too.
Not to mention the rising hindu nationalism and anti muslim sentiment where they also make up over 100 million of the population, hundreds of muslims within the past decade had been the target of lynchings on suspicions for eating beef, where dozens have died.
The current ruling party under Narendra Modi is a hindu nationalist and under his regime violence against the dalits and muslims has risen.
Also not to forget the military occupation of pakistan's kashmir where thousands have died within the past decades.
Also economically, illiteracy rates are still sky high and malnutrition is rampant among the lower classes, does not sound modern or free to me. Even under Mao's china, China's population overwhelmingly have become literate before china opened up its economy. which is the very reason why china can grow so fast, a huge pool of competent workers.
3
Of all America’s longtime allies, Austrialia is not the only one that pursues realpolitik. Unlike Trump, most leaders are sensible and rational. They don’t lash out at foes, let alone allies, knowing that in the heat of bellicose rhetoric, things can be said that will come back to haunt them.
The longer the GOP keeps Trump in office, the more harm he inflicts on the country’s economy and foreign policy. He is ignorant, yet claims to know best. For this reason he only surrounds himself with sycophants who aren’t exactly brilliant advisers.
Trump is beholden to a small group of voters who pursue narrow, nativist interests. They urge him to undermine institutions that their country “helped create to guide the global economic system.” His tariff wars on close allies, the shelving of the TPP that aimed to curb China’s influence in the Asian-Pacific sphere, and his attack on WTO, on which the international community relies on to trade, are just playing into Beijing’s hands. Trump is precipitating America’s decline.
3
I am so sorry to the world.
Please forgive us for the abomination in Washington D.C. He and his perverse ilk are an embarrassment to all of America. We are ashamed of our country.
It will not go on past 2020.
3
Trump would need color coded diagrams to even begin to try to examine this one. And no red, please. He’s not cognizant of what that implies.
I personally am a bit of an Australian Sinologist. I have been to China 4 times and Taiwan once. I happen to have a hobby and intense interest in ancient Chinese philosophy and history. I have only been to the USA once (loved it). Despite all this the connection with America is stronger. Same language and we all grew up here with the same sitcoms. We are drenched in American culture from jazz to hip hop, Whitman to Bob Dylan, Miles Davis to Leadbelly. We are also loyal allies and are grateful for the USA saving us in the Battle of the Coral Sea, There are many more Chinese tourists here nowadays than Americans. Yet the cultural and historical connections are with the USA not China. We watch Seinfeld and Friends as much as you do. The cultural connection is way stronger with America. Actually when visiting America I was struck by its cultural similarity with Australia. Despite my interest in Chinese culture, I felt no cultural synergy in China as I felt in America. That is why the rise of Trump disturbs me so much. In a way he is our president too.. unfortunately. He won't be there forever and strong US- Australian ties will survive his moronic outrages.
1
China is not telling you who you can be friends with and who you can and CANNOT do business with. They’re not dictating what telecom equipment you have to buy or weapon systems you can buy.
As long as your nations laws adequately protect you from outside political interference doing business with them shouldn’t be a problem.
With China business is business they don’t dangle foreign aid over your head or send warships to intimidate you when there are disagreements. That’s said there’s nothing wrong with being allies with the US just do what they say or else... look at Turkey.
2
@Brian L. wrote: “China is not telling you who you can be friends with and who you can and CANNOT do business with.”
They certainly do whine a lot when we and other countries sell weapons to the country of Taiwan.
Despite China being our biggest spending customer, most Australians are well aware that China is an authoritarian and dispassionate state. They are also aware that the USA with its Constitution and tripartite government represents the pinnacle of democracy.
Sure, the Republicans, aided and abetted by Trump, bewilderingly appear set upon destroying it; and sure, Trump himself is politically and personally repulsive to most of the world and 60-70% of Americans, but most Aussies understand that Trump and his Republican sycophants are not America, and not even Americans in the metaphoric sense.
Americans, by and large, are warm, welcoming, astute, traditional, respectful, honourable, lawful, magnanimous, charitable, and eminently likeable. Australians, for the most part, are very much the same. This shared humanity lies quite outside economics and politics, and binds our nations in a way that China could never achieve whilst it eschews democracy and human rights.
1
@A. F. G. Maclagan The average Chinese person is pretty nice, too. While you have your love fest with Americans, please don't forget that Chinese people can't vote, have no freedom of expression, and have been jailed and mercilessly killed by their own army for asking for the most basic democratic and human rights. They continue to yearn for a better government, just as they did in 1989. Please don't forget about that and let the CCP fool you into thinking it speaks for Chinese people.
1
Love the Chinese, detest the communists.
What this article gets wrong is that Australian politicians have not been reluctant to discuss China's increasing influence what they have been really reluctant to discuss is the enormous pressure soft power (see creation of NYT "Australia section" etc. ) and hard, covert and overt exerted by the US for Australia to "get on side." It's the US that is playing hardball with Australians.
2
A ‘private’ company Shandong Landbridge (with CCP connections) bought a 99-year lease of Australia’s Darwin Port. (Darwin is a remote coastal town in the NW Territory.)
China pursues a “first civilian, later military” strategy – in which foreign commercial ports are later transformed into military assets to support China’s Navy and hegemony.
Probably the same with Port Darwin. But Landbridge says it’s interested in beachfront real estate development and a golf course.
China has done the same in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Greece and Djibouti.
Port Darwin is also the southern flank of U.S. Navy operations in the Pacific and home to a few thousand U.S. Marines. That means the marines and Chinese will be bumping into each other in Darwin.
At the time, Obama officials were miffed that a key ally would authorize or permit this transaction without first advising them.
Interesting times in Australian geopolitics.
4
From Clive Hamilton’s Silent Invasion (2018)
“One of China’s most effective instruments of economic statecraft is the making of dire but vague threats of economic harm to a country that displeases it. It works because governments believe the threats. As we will see, China is willing to make countries suffer.
In Australia, China’s threats are amplified by a corporate fifth column that has grown around the bilateral economic relationship, a business elite unwittingly beholden to a foreign master and undermining Australian sovereignty from within.
This cohort of business leaders and their advisers shuttle between the two countries doing deals and making ‘friends’ (with people whose backgrounds and motives they only think they know).
China is vital to Australia’s future because of our economic dependence on it. Or so it is said. It’s truer to say that the perception of our economic dependence gives China immense influence over Australia.“
1
King Ronnie actively worked to minimize government by gutting investment in science and education. Instead, we started wars, cut taxes on the rich and eliminated financial regulations. China kept investing for the distant future.
Nearly 40 years later our failure to think long-term is coming home to roost. China has cornered the market in renewable energy and A.I., while the U.S. is still spending on military equipment, coal and oil. Our education system is failing, our medical system is unaffordable while our infrastructure is crumbling. But we have lots of guns and religion.
13
Australia is simply doing what any business entity would do, viz., producing more what is in demand. Like any business entity, customer comes first. Of all the countries, we should understand that. On the other hand, revenue from the number of Chinese students, is primarily due to Chinese desire to get better education than Australians trying to market education to Chinese. It is same in United States, the number of Chinese students are increasing despite trade war. If at all, we are trying to restrict the number of students and scholars come to this country. China has to cross many hurdles to get anywhere close to United States. It has historical problems in its neighborhood that include Japan and India, the third and fourth biggest economies in the world. So, no worries.
3
By the time China has the capacity to compete with the United States it will be a democracy. This is inevitable, when the aging leadership dies and passes the mantle to the younger generation who has lived with capitalism there’s no going back.
For those who believe China is already there the average Chinese worker makes nowhere near the average American worker it will be 50 to 100 years before this is even close to happening.
3
As the article noted, by far the most important Australian exports to China are commodities (coal, iron ore, etc). Yet, as China's economy shifts from heavy manufacturing to light manufacturing and services (as well as reducing its reliance on coal for electricity-generation), these will become less important to China, and so Australia will become less important to China.
Of course, Trump is doing whatever he can to rubbish America's reputation in the world and reduce everything to a Darwinian struggle; Paul Krugman's op-ed yesterday about the demise of Pax Americana is worth reading.
In any event, Australia (and others) should be wary of putting to much emphasis on any one country (whether that country be China, America, or anyone else); economic conditions change, and dealing with the fallout can be painful, especially when reliance is on one customer.
4
If by special relationship we mean unquestioned obedience then no. But we needn’t be insecure, Australia is still majority Anglo-Saxon and distrustful of all things Chinese, the anti-Chinese sentiment is openly on display when I visit the country. Australia was the first to ban Huawei outright at the demand on the US, it is far more willing to genuflect than the UK within our Fives Eyes security arrangement. If Australia cooperates with the Chinese is it purely for personal gain, not an endorsement or ideology.
9
@Tell It Like It Is The U.S. in no longer "majority Anglo-Saxon"; 'white' population statistics in the U.S. include Russian, East European and many Spanish. I suspect that Australia is still majority Anglo-Saxon, if you are looking for such a nation.
@Tell It Like It Is
I am sorry, man, but I have to kill you. Nothing personal, mind you, it's business...
When Trump thinks of alliances he thinks of not being able to achieve America’s interests free of constraints which the interests of allies require. So, he just treats allies as complications not leverage for achieving common interests. He prefers to have nations look after their interests. That pretty much tells our allies not to count on the U.S., at least while Trump is President, and to do what they want on their own.
14
The rise of China is not the only thing changing the equation. America is NOT reliable as an ally. Everybody knows that.
89
So short, and powerful.
Damages being inflicted on US reputation and allies’ trust in US through Mr. T’s words and deeds are spreading. Unless a great part of American voters give up their urge to enjoy thrills and suspense (Reality Show like political theatrical circuses) Mr. T will be the next US President and the damages are to continue to spread and deepen.
2
We fought besides the US in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, provide soil for US bases, but American farm subsidies limit our competitive advantage, when we travel to the US, accelerated visa programs are not available to us, as they are to some South American countries.
Its never been clear to me that it was a two-sided alliance.
46
@psi --- don't forget it is now public knowledge "America First." Trump says for America to win, others must lose. The concept of "win, win" is not known to him!
2
@psi
canada provided passports to six americans during the hostage crisis in iran 40 years ago. trained them to be able to answer questions when they left iran.
on september 11, 2001 when bush shut down airlines coming and going out of the usa (except the saudi royal family) we took in thousands of americans in gander, newfoundland for up to a week. they stayed in peoples' homes, churches, hockey rinks, school gymnasiums and, in at least several cases, drove americans hundreds of miles--one way--home. for this, we are now a national security threat. americans, uninformed as too many are, will be oblivious to the damage caused to the relationship and wonder why they might not get a warm reception when they meet canadians or aussies, or germans et al. the bullies forget, the bullied never do.
4
@psi
but what have you done for them lately?!
trump is an extreme aberration, but arbitrary american behaviour didn't start with him.
the usa is still waiting for an apology for the Vietnamese treating them so badly after the usa tried to bomb them back to the stone age.
and, don't forget, the usa won ww1&ww2 by them itself. they saved the world....
they are just unappreciated.
4
The Australians had a lot of troops in Vietnam. They were great soldiers and great beer drinkers! I was stationed with them in Vung Tau. Australia allows us to have bases in their country. Most recently US Marine bases.
Good people who have allowed themselves to be drawn into U.S. problems from time to time.
I wish them well with the wine business. My guess is that China is more stable and easier to do business with than we are.
Wonder if Mexico is gonna pay for the wall?
51
If you burn a candle from both ends, it will burn bright, but it'll burn out much quicker. Then you'll be left all alone in the dark.
15
And we now have a leader who shows no mutual respect for our old allies. His “America uber alles” philosophy will eventually push the entire world away from us and into the arms of anyone who treats them with respect. For Trump, everything for him is about his ego and his perception of winning. He doesn’t care about the country or the world
55
Australians make a huge mistake thinking China buying products is a great thing, but because next thing China, like a good colonialist, instead buys first the politicians (all parties) then the farms and mines, cutting Australians out altogether.
New Zealanders can no longer afford lamb! Surveillance colonialism.
24
@scientellaI most of us can afford lamb. It’s Auckland (and Sydney and Melbourne) houses that have been a problem... Overseas investors are/were only a modest portion of the market(s), but the marginal buyer dictates the price, and if that buyer is keen to get their money out of yuan into real property in a safe harbour/growth market, this might influence their decision to pay even more than others might, which kind of inflates things further when there’s a lot of easy capital floating around as there was/is.... although this is a problem that property developers and successive governments on both sides of the ditch were perfectly happy to see continued, and haven’t really dealt with in spite of some legislation for show...
1
The trade routes most important in the future economic world can be seen by positioning oneself in mid Indian Ocean, with Australia on one flank, and Africa on the other. China’s, not America’s footprint dominates this zone. From this vantage point, America is a fringe player, far away and being superseded by China’s One Belt, One Road initiative.
America has been, still is, powerful, But cutting ties with allies, getting out of trade links is idiotic. When an international economic competition, like a football game, has one team, America, walk off the field to make itself great again, the other team scores big time.
It leaves an area around the Indian Ocean, with people, natural resources and a dislike of distant, tiny America up for grabs, and being grabbed by China. It is hard not to cheer for them.
28
Same article could be written about Canada. Trump is utterly destroying important historical alliances.
79
Australia is still finding it’s way in the world. Initially we were dependent on the British, as a natural consequence of history of being a British colony.
During WW11 dependency moved to the US , primarily for defence reasons, and also some cultural similarities.
The nature of Australia has changed dramatically in the past few decades, as we moved away from the White Anglosaxon stereotype to a truly multicultural society, which melds together under the umbrella of well established laws of the land to which the population readily adheres.
Migration from Asia has been huge. Walking down the streets of Sydney you will see many Asian faces, very often walking arm in arm with a non Asian face.
Asian people are no longer seen as foreign.
Politically , Australia is in the middle, a capitalist society with a social service safety net.
The US under Trump and other politicians looks much more draconian. America first may work well for the US, but it does not work necessarily that well for the rest of us.
International relations are always a dynamic. National interests are paramount, and alliances depend on shared interests, which change.
Trump has been a disaster for the USA international standing and respect
96
@Robert correct - economically, and to some extent culturally... While, if we’re honest with ourselves, the US has started more wars of aggression in recent memory than China has... nonetheless when it comes to promoting the general ideals of liberal democracy, however imperfect (and however hypocritical it seems for the US to claim to do so at some moments)......... nonetheless, the US and the rest of the Five Eyes nations are still our natural allies for us here in A/NZ.... sigh. Here’s hoping they get it together in the not too distant future.
1
@Robert
Well said
@Robert You are 100% right that Trump has been a disaster for America in multiple ways, but most importantly its relationship with its Allies and the rest of the world.
However, consider one important difference that should NOT be overlooked.
If you published a similar opinion criticizing the China you would NOT be able to publish it IN China's Pre-eminent Newspaper. Secondly, if you DID manage to get it published in China (Not remotely possible) or even outside of China, your name would go on a secret "hit list" of China's enemies.
Trust me, their penchant for surveillance, AI and technology has made ANYBODY who is critical of China a target of China.
It goes without saying that if you value the freedom you take for granted, it would be wise to ensure that China is not able to control your economy or political process, nor the international economy.
It sounds quaintly ridiculous, and straight out of a James Bond or Austin Powers movie, but the Chinese are bent world domination.
This is one plausible explanation. Another might be that these trends might reflect both effort put in and outcomes achieved from a political influence campaign.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2018/august/1533045600/john-garnaut/australia-s-china-reset
Unless the scope and effect of foreign influence has been discredited somewhere (somehwere not influenced by the CCP), it should probably be addressed in any such article. [Insert any relevant analogy to American politics here].
3
The Chinese I know like a strong drink and a good smoke and are fond of gambling. To me, that's a walk up start to doing business.
6
@petebowes
The Chinese you know does not represent all Chinese business people. I should know!
In China, Australia has a country that buys its products, keeps its businesses running and gives jobs to its people. In the US, Australia has a national security partner. What good does a national security partner do you when your economy is tanking and your people are starving? And why does Australia need a national security partner anyway? For the pleasure of sending its young people off to die in wars started by other countries? Wars that are of no relevance to the defense of their own nation?
40
@A Cynic
Due to its geography, Australia doesn't need a foreign power to guarantee its security. China can't even invade Taiwan, let alone invade a vast country like Australia thousands of miles away! I always find it puzzling whenever I read Australia has a national security alliance with the United States. Like you said, young Australians are off to die for wars started by the US. Why this is beneficial for Australians is beyond me.
2
@A Cynic
Exactly what I have been thinking. China invading and occupying Australia or any one else is American fear mongering! There are enough problems and work needed in the country to keep China occupied. China wants to trade and do business with others and to protect its trade routes --- nothing sinister as portrayed by its enemies and haters!
2
@A Cynic
"And why does Australia need a national security partner anyway?"
For that moment when a bunch of ships pull in to your shores uninvited or squads of airships blacken your skies dropping nasty things on you !
The country with those ideas might be China which is presently sequestering Uighurs in camps to reeducate them and putting Han overseers in the houses of these people to monitor activity that the cameras in the streets and stuck on the outside of their houses do not reach ! ?
I'll take the US as a friend any day and pray that this presidency is an aberration instead of a country where the current "Paramount Leader" of China has been given a position for life? ! --Not much of a decision there.
2
The US should place more emphasis on building a strong, long-term economic relationship with China instead of fostering economic war.
Since WWII we have "ruled the world" often with an arrogant, in-your-face style, and now more than ever. That may have some short-term effectiveness but it breeds a lot of rancor and animosity and pushes away allies.
It must be remember that China has 4 times our population and 2 to 3 times our economic growth rate. It is only a matter of time until China is the big kid on the block - fast becoming large multiples.
We should stand up for what's right on trade. We should work with our allies to get them to play by international rules. But the Trump strategy is pure folly, and we will pay for it dearly later.
28
@Rocky
That is actually not inevitable. China has a lot of problems, & our population can grow as much as we want it to which will grow the US economy at a highly correlated pace.
Allies... that is if the term includes Australia's grovelling to American Foreign policy since 1941, and more recently Israel. Especially under the evangelical Liberal Party for the last 20 years.
Until John Curtin's somewhat unconditional surrender to the USA in 1941, the relationship was probably about right. Since that act of capitulation, Australia has been more lickspittle than ally as its fear of Asia brought about much non-questioning of American bullying behavior. From the lies about Vietnam to the lies about Iraq and Afghanistan, and now Iran, Australia has been willingly led around by the nose increasingly making its global standing subservient to the USA.
Given there will be no winners in a nuclear war, it seems a bit silly Americans telling the world that Australia needs its nuclear umbrella for protection. What Australia needs, which is why it needs to stand independently, is to have the global system of law and order made stronger rather than being made weaker as the Americans are currently doing. And to stand up to the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia, and Iran and others, who intentionally weaken that system.
Whether economic reasons drive that, or whether it comes about as a result of increasing maturity with a new, younger government, Australia will be better served by a global system of law and order rather than relying on the increasingly erratic US of A. As will all countries, especially those without nuclear weapons to act as a deterrent.
22
The Aussies would be wise to avoid the dead end policies if Donald Trump with respect to China and international trade. As should the rest of the nations of the world. If America is "first," where does this leave everyone else? Trump's lack of respect for international agreements and world order are a danger around the globe.
27
Lets not forget China went to War against the US when it volunteered upwards of a million soldiers. Most of the US forces casualties were incurred by Chinese troops. Not N. Koreans.
China lacking any tradition of Democracy or western civil values is most unlikely to ever become a US “ally”. Much more likely a fierce competitor for global hegemony. More than a few very knowledgeable naval strategists claim its only a matter of time before China challenges the US for the Pacific Ocean. A repeat of the 1930’s with Japan is on many analyst minds. Within 10 to 15 years China is likely to have achieved parity with the US in terms of nuclear attack and missile submarines. That’s when it really gets interesting. And its what keeps “us” up at night.
18
It is more than Trump. The USA has long exploited Central and South America and done little for them other than to give foreign aid to their criminals by buying drugs.
Our geography and political interests should gravitate north and south. And then the rest of the world we should cooperate with and enjoy good relations, but recognize that Russia and India and China are naturally dominant there, both by history and geography.
We are sometimes quite influential but every change of presidents and we are mercurial!
Look at poor Korea. In the 1880s we replaced China as her protector. In 1905 we secretly and treacherously turned that role over to Japan.
9
That's because Australia and also the neighbouring nation, NZ, have free trade agreements with China and our PMs are courteous and diplomatic in negotiations with China. There's a lot of goodwill there that has been built up over the years.
NZ sort of had a cold war with the USA when we went nuclear free many years ago; and the relationship had a chance to flourish between China and NZ without interference from the USA. China accepted our no nukes constitutional legislation and didn't bully us to change it. USA only came around to it during the Obama presidency. NZ and Australia are sovereign nations that can say no to the USA.
I read that China builds peaceful relations through trade. (Don't know what happened to the China/USA scenario.)
19
@CK wrote: “There's a lot of goodwill there that has been built up over the years.”
And NZ can garner even more goodwill with China if it will simply burn every Winnie-The-Pooh book in every public library, along with any other book or topic that the current dictator of China deems offensive. That’s just to maintain goodwill actually; NZ will also have to apologize for having had those books in the first place.
1
@CK I personally worry a bit more than that about undue Chinese influence, not the least due to simple demographics in the APAC and therefore ANZ regions; the Chinese state is hardly a benign actor when it comes to its own citizens or to sovereign foreign nations... But in practical terms, apart from such nagging surveillance and political concerns, to date the US has acted as more of an aggressor in foreign wars that we wanted no involvement in, the US has maintained cooler economic relations with both AUS and NZ, and the US is the primary military power for better or worse, in the Pacific. I know who I’d prefer as an ally for our democracy in NZ (and Australia’s), but man, at what cost to our integrity (and any sovereign state with oil)..? It would be nice if the US made this trade off a bit easier, but that’s how imperial powers function I suppose. We should be glad we’re not in LATAM...
2
Demagogues thru history from the first one Alcibiades in ancient Greece to one of the last ones Chavez in Venz., always end up ruining their countries, usually economically.
With Trump it is just a matter of time and degree as to how much economic damage he will do to America.
13
@Paul - a voice like a scalded sow, yes? Alcibiades, that is...
1
@R- Thank you for your reply. I am not familiar with that phrase but I believe Alcibiades was generally viewed by historians as the first known demagogue like Trump.
If I am not mistaken he was the rabble rouser who lobbied for the great Socrates to drink hemlock if he did not lie about how he felt.
1
Many in China don't recognize Australia as a legitimate country. They view Australians as European invaders who don't belong there. It would be hopelessly naive for Australia to trust China in a security relationship. (Yes, even taking Trump into consideration.)
18
@John Chenango
Many in China "view Australians as European invaders who don't belong there". (Btw, if those many, in the same breath, regard the US as a legitimate country, aren't they being a bit inconsistent?)
The "many in China" are reminders of how many Australians view the Chinese in Tibet and Xinjiang ("Chinese" Central Asia) -- 'invaders who don't
belong there'.
>It would be hopelessly naïve for Australia to trust China in a security relationship.
Agreed, but for reasons far more important than those stated here, for reasons that have little to do with historical patterns of ethnic conquest, resettlement.
The CCP -- *not* the Chinese people -- is to be deeply mistrusted, just as the (all too frequently war-mongering) GOP is -- *not* the American people, en masse.
The reason for distrust is identical: the unshakeable grip of power-hunger, the obsession with holding (in the best-case scenario, irenic) sway over as much of the rest of the planet as possible.
It all sounds so backward; but, believe it or not, this is exactly where we still are!
Forget djt's personal narcissism, the xenophobic turn, his vain gestures towards isolationism. Even these things shall pass. Wall St, Pentagon generals, the CCP, however, will never set aside the perceived benefits of securing global supremacy "for our people".
Since we can't have much effect on the CCP, one tiny crawl in a less negative direction might be to vote the less backward of our two parties into the Senate, the WH, no?
@John Chenango
What polling information or other source do you have to support this clearly anecdotal observation? Surely the Chinese could criticize all "settler" cultures including the US Canada etc... but they do not. The Han have expanded into many surrounding areas and they recognize the passage of time as legitimizing. Just like the US does with Hawaii,Guam, all the territory taken from Mexico in the Mexican American War - California for example etc... Just no.
2
@John Chenango
From where did you get that impression?
If the Chinese truly regard people moving to an area of different ethnicity and culture as " invaders who don't belong there" then they would have to concede the ethnic Han (95% of the Chinese population) have no right to be in Tibet or Muslim West China.
The Han people do not share that view.
Australia is an white outpost of 24 million people. Its neighbors are Indonesia, a Muslim nation of 264 that is turning more radical, and China, a country of 1.4 billion that is in search of expansion. Imperial Japan tried to invade Australia before, and China might follow suit in the 21st century, not with the military but simply with immigration and buying Australia out. China will then double its size and secure a massive amount resource.
20
@TD
Is that the argument used by the US government to convince the Australian political parties that they need a security partnership? They reminding the Australians that they are basically European invaders that shouldn't be there?
2
As a Canadian, I will implore our govt. to be wary of America. The advent of trump, coupled with the resilience of the mindset of tge tea party, makes America an unreliable partner going forward.
I know that as much as is possible, I’ll boycott America when possible.
Tariffs on Canada is a slap in the face that I’ll never forget, and I hope my children don’t either.
It’s a shame to see what the western alliance has become because of republicans lust for power.
Their greed, and desperation became evident by their failure to have a vote on the SC seat during Obama’s presidency when they should have.
I believe that that act showed that republicans were willing to do anything, including accepting trump as an evangelical, in order to have power.
50
@lansford. The only reason Canada exist, is America’s commitment to its defense. How long would Canada be free if America declared they would stay neutral if China or Russia decided to seize them? Canadians must believe their security is based on diplomacy and not their protector due south.
Over the past century, the reasons to be "Team USA" in geopolitical terms were pretty obvious. In the Trump era, they are hard to see.
12
Very early in his administration, while making “get acquainted” telephone calls, calls, Trump, furious about a previous agreement under which certain refugees were to be transferred to the US, berated the Australian Prime Minister, whined that “this is my worse call of the day, by far”, and then hung up on him.
This was our first indication of Trump’s attitude toward our closest and most important allies. This “diplomacy” has continued, and whatever the effect of Chinese policy, it has not helped.
34
There are many reasons to support a strong alliance between G10 countries (including US, broader EU, Japan and Australia) and China.
The malevolent and destructive alliance between Russia, Syria, North Korea, Hezbollah, and Trump reveals the former alliance to be based on economic prosperity and stability, while the latter is based on chaos and corruption for profit.
When Trump is but a faded memory of a loathsome time in global and American history, the strong countries of shared interest must look past differences in economic systems in favor of global stability and prosperity.
Countries whose economies depend on the destruction of the planet, terrorism and cybercrime must be dealt with like the plague they are to humanity.
The nation’s focused on rebuilding and repairing the global infrastructure and environment will succeed and prosper going forward.
1
As trump bloviates and undermines the relationships of America's long time allies and trading partners...it appears that they will continue to look toward a future where American influence wanes. We have no one to blame but ourselves, having elected a know nothing bully, and acting as if we, as 5% of the world's population, can run roughshod over everyone else without penalty, will now reap what we have sown. The EU, Australia, Canada, Japan and all the other nations on earth now understand that the US cannot be trusted.
The damage that has been done will take decades to repair, if it ever can be...meanwhile the reality based world outside the US moves on...building infrastructure and embracing renewable technologies, as we let our country deteriorate and crumble, hostage to fossil fuel and monied interests.
Pragmatism dictates that countries that do what is best for their citizens...sadly, that is not the case in America any longer.
23
I think alot of people in the US would be surprised how much some of its allies relate quite alot to China.
Australians, Canadians and Europeans appreciate social regulations that make sense - gun laws, social media laws, anti-trust laws. While it is true, we want our democracies and personal freedoms - and do not condone Chinese meddling in these affairs - we value SOCIETY.
This seems to be lacking in America.
This is why so many Chinese millionaires move to Australia and Canada before the US.
12
@EC- You reason that " This is why so many Chinese millionaires move to Australia and Canada before the US". Yes, but if China was such a wonderful place to be, why move at all? I suspect there are a lot of reasons, including personal freedoms and privacy, not available to people in China that figure into the equation.
@Randy
Of course.
But there is a truth that for the everyday person between some of the restrictions of China at one end, and the freewheeling lack of regulation that is in the US, there exists Europe, Australia and Canada. We have alot in common with China - where its government really does look to provide a safety net and strong social fabric for the long term that benefits many. You can definitely argue about the lengths China goes to in order to achieve that - and indeed I am not putting up my hand to live there - but still there is alot to admire.
3
@EC. America has over 3 times as may Chinese immigrants than Canada, and 4 times as many as Australia. Seems a lot more Chinese people prefer that freedom thing over that SOCIETY thing. Over 2 million more.
“That doesn’t mean we can’t have a close, warm relationship with the United States."
Wasn't it Australia who Trump picked a fight with over nothing early on?
As one commentor cogently stated: Australians are a very independent country and don't appreciate this level of disrespect from a long time ally.
China is and will be forever a very important trader with Australia and no amount of insults by the U.S. president is going to change that.
18
Certainly it is a shorter distance from Australia to China than from Australia to the US, so a flight from Sydney to Guangzhou is 9 and a half hours, one from Sydney to LA 13 and a half. Economic geography
But a nine hour flight is still a long way - and do Australian exporters really put up with Chinese language and cultural difficulties to save 4 hours in business class?
The world looks somewhat different once you step away from your home country. Strange as it may seem, China can be a more welcoming market than a US led by "I love tariffs" Trump. A nation which bans steel imports from Australia on security grounds is not a reliable ally.
The US is on its own on this fight with China because on unfair competition through government support, import restrictions, and economic and aggressive domination of smaller countries neither country comes out clean
12
@herne. Why do you ignore the freedoms America practices? How many millions of people do the Chinese government try to re-program a year?
The US role as world leader has been diminishing for at least two decades. President Trump is giving this trend a big push.
32
This well written piece explicates the complexity of today's global trade, noting the irony in how well the international commerce framework set up after WWII is now serving to realign the very hierarchy it established.
Mr. Irwin also takes proper note of the international relationships among Australia, China and the U.S. since WWII. However, to gain a more instructive sense of the current dynamic, one must look over the past millennium at the history of emerging nation-state economies. An examination from 1019 to today shows clearly that China and India were the largest economies by orders of magnitude for almost nine-hundred of the last thousand years.
Each nation is resuming its place among the world economies since the time European gunboats, particularly the British, arrived in the 1800's to destabilize their economies, cultures, and political structures to enforce terms of trade that favored Europe since free trade alone was not working to Europe's advantage.
While it is certainly important to focus on contemporary factors in play that affect national interests, omitting this deeper thread in the narrative risks enabling Western misunderstanding of China's long history as the world's dominant economy and how motivated it is to recapture that status.
As it does so in a world in which the West no longer commands its past colonial franchise, the change in global alliances will likely extend well past Australia--with no going back.
13
@Gui
I agree, the US is wrongly worried about whether its gonna lose its position as #1 in the world. Instead, it should worry whether its going to lose its future position as #2!
Asia within the last decade became the worlds biggest economically by GDP PPP. Countries like ASEAN states (Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia etc), India, China, are among the best performing developing economies are in Asia. One country that gets largely ignored is Indonesia whos gdp recently hit 1 trillion.
China, by fate and destiny, is right in the center of all of these developing economies and will benefit the most out of its location. While the US is on the far fringes a world away, isolated from them.
Eurasia alone is home to 70% of worlds humanity.
China's own population is greater than both Americas! This is a vast amount of untapped potential that China is seizing with its BRI.
And China, being located right within, is also the gateway to Southeast asia. the americas, and oceania. By the laws of nature this is something the US cannot stop and China will inevitably win the most from its location as an important crossroad for trade in Eurasia.
7
The united states often touts itself as the moral superpower championing human rights and freedom. how ironic is this?
it is singlehandely responsible for destabilizing and impoverishing much of the middle east with regime change wars that led to the deaths of millions of muslims and the flight of millions more to seek refuge to europe. at the same time it imposes a "muslim ban", refusing to take in the people whos lives are ruined by the US.
"The US values human rights"
if US truly values the rights of every man to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness. it should never had imposed sanctions on iran, venezuela, and the like.
its nothing more than economic warfare designed to starve and impoverish the population into submission so that the western corporations can take control of the nations resources.
The days of yankee imperialism is over. the belt and road will once more bring 中国 back to the center of the world stage and ultimately push the us into the periphery, making the US irrelevant.
As Xi Jinping once said in 2009 "these westerners do nothing all day but getting their bellies full and point fingers at others; First, China does not export revolution. Second, China does not export poverty. Third, China does not undermine you, what else is there to say?"
And this is in stark contrast with the us corporate dictatorship's imperialist policies.
24
@barte- Your condemnation of the US has some minor validity. However, let's not overlook Mao's 'Great Leap Forward when 45 million people died, 2.5 million from torture alone. And then there is the Tienanmen Square massacre- the intentional murder of about ten thousand peacefully demonstrating students and civilians. And China continually protects her vicious dictator allies, such as North Korea, with her UN vetoes. Then there are the 're-education' camps for millions of ethnic Uighur's. China can't claim any mantle of moral superiority.
3
Australia is a Western democracy and that is not going to change. It has always had a "special relationship" with the US, but this does not preclude doing business wherever it can.
Keeping mum about China during the election campaign only makes sense. Even if the US can push China around (a dubious proposition), Australia certainly can't. What is the point of alienating them for no purpose? It doesn't make Australia a Chinese satellite any more than it was before.
I'm not sure what argument the author is trying to make.
26
@ERP Australia is not a "Western democracy", whatever that is. For decades, Australians (and New Zealanders, for that matter), have been identified and accepted as "white Asians" in both Southern Asia and SE Asia. Watch Sky, BBC, and CNN Asia, and you'll understand how "local" Ozzies and Kiwis are - they speak local. too. It is important for Americans to begin to understand that "Western" no longer has anything to do with Vermont, or the realtor in the White House.
1
Australia and New Zealand are countries that highly value personal liberty and freedom of speech. Spend time in either and you will get a sense of an anti authority culture - people do not like to be told what to do. Ideologically they have nothing in common with Orwellian China yet through a systematic program of influence are both becoming economically dependant on it. This will not end well.
Despite Trump pushing hard his isolationist agenda there is no question that the USA, Australia and New Zealand (and most of Europe) are on the same team. America will eventually get leadership that recognises this and a strong free World alliance will (hopefully) reform.
In the meantime Australia and New Zealand should quietly go about doing what they can to reduce their reliance on China. They are in for a big shock down the line if they can't.
41
@HoneyBadger - I can't speak for NZ, but regarding free speech; Australia's defamation laws are absolutely draconian, they're almost as bad as Singapore's. Search for "Yael Stone Geoffery Rush" and read what she thinks of them.
4
@HoneyBadger I wholeheartedly agree. America has a lot of problems; too many to enumerate here. But there is wide agreement in our deeply divided country about pushing back on China. We’ve seen China undermine various elements of our economy for well over 20 years. Consider us a canary in the coal mine.
10
@HoneyBadger well said. Perhaps it’s too much to hope that China also gets more sensible leadership in coming decades, and we are able to have somewhat closer ties, without sacrificing much in the way of effective sovereignty...? Perhaps...
As it stands, the fact remains that China simply tries to buy (and spy) their way into resources and allies, whereas the US prefers bullying tactics - and outright war for some unlucky nations.
Geopolitically the US still make sense as allies along with the other 5 Eyes, but they’re not making it easy...
One of the better articles on the Australian relationship with both countries.
One function of “America First” is the implication everyone else is second.
The two countries have enjoyed an effective alliance since 4 July 1918, but that is at risk now.
Australia has a close cultural and security affinity with the States, but an economic relationship with China.
At some point Australia may have to choose, and “ America First” doesn’t aid the US’s argument.
38
One of the most interesting things in this article is how the Trump Administration is making it easier for our friends--like Australia--to distance themselves for the US. Things like quitting the TPP process, the Paris climate accords, placing tariffs on friendly countries, and wrapping ourselves in bellicose (and often racist) nationalist rhetoric hurts us now and will hurt us in the future.
China certainly doesn't represent a paradigm of moral values for much of the rest of the world, but they do have money. We, the US, no longer have the money--just the weapons--and a rapidly losing our moral authority born from our roles in WW2 and the Cold War.
Thanks Trump and Pence and Pompeo and Bolton for making China look good and the US look not so good. Great job...
103
@jeff How times change. A little over a year later it appears that it is in fact China that is making it easier for traditional US allies to strengthen our alliances. And as far money, I don't see major US companies going bankrupt, or its stock market crashing. And exactly how did the USA lose moral authority in WWII? During which it liberated China; and the cold war, after which it freed close to half of humanity from brutal dictatorship?
"The incumbent government, led by the prime minister, Scott Morrison, has sought to maintain close ties with both the United States and China." That's the most ridiculous statement in this article. The currently government is almost openly anti-China. Its anti-foreign influence law is almost openly touted as an attempt to reduce Chinese influence; it rejected the citizenship application and cancelled the permanent residence of a Chinese billionaire who had been active in Australian politics for years; and it was the first country is follow the US call to ban Huawei. Australia is already paying the price by having much of its coal exports blocked at Chinese ports.
16
The 30th Anniversary of Tiananmen Square occurs in a few days. As bad as the US can be, I wouldn't bet the whole farm on China.
16
@KS
I'll take your Tiananmen and raise you Madeline Albright's statement in the run-up to Iraq invasion that the death of 500,000 Iraqi children (UN estimates) due to US-led sanctions on Iraq was "a cost we willing to take."(See 60Mins interview with Leslie Stahl) I'm not even getting into the loss of life maiming and dispossession refugees created by US wars shortly after or right up to now - Yemen. The US has no moral high ground when it comes to freely and without necessity inducing vast human suffering.
2
And what about the Bonus Army Conflict?
1
A simple way of dealing with all this posturing by the USA about trade imbalances, is to do a free trade deal with China. China prefers free trade deals where there are no tariffs. Problem solved for the USA if you did a free trade deal with China then all those tariffs you pay to China would be wiped and China would buy more product from the USA.
Can't understand why USA President can't see this as the only solution to a problem that would be a win/win for both countries.
Free trade agreements with diplomatic, professional, no tweeting negotiations, would be the mature way to go for a superpower. USA has nothing to fear, about free trade agreements, than fear itself.
8
@CK
thats because hypocritically, US is very protectionist and only allows china to buy mainly commodities like agricultural products while all the more high tech stuff are off limits. china has over 3 trillion dollars in currency reserves. thats enough to buy several dozen carrier strike groups from the us.
trade deficit will be immediately wiped out if US finally allows the export of f22, f35, nuclear submarines, tanks, carriers, missiles, along with all the know how and all the bells and whistles that comes along with it :D
its the us's problem that they are putting barriers on what the chinese can and cannot buy.
hey, if us is willing to selling hundreds of billions of arms to autocratic countries each year world wide, why not china?
4
The Australian economy has been strongly tied to China for decades, the robust growth of the Chinese economy since the 80’s means bigger numbers not a stronger commitment. Australia has alway served the neighborhood giant and always will until it becomes less profitable. China’s economy, through government financing, manipulative and deceptive commercial practices and downright fraud, has become behemoth. The Chinese people have rapidly adapted and become quite comfortable with their newfound middle class lifestyle. Will the US slapping back with tariffs, the halting of fraud like intellectual property theft and other restrictions be noticed by the newly enriched Chinese middle class? You bet it will, but they have little recourse...China is still a very authoritarian society. When the wages drop, the layoffs come, consumer prices skyrocket and the air gets even dirtier, Ji’s problems with American negotiators will diminish as an issue. China has much more to lose here than the US. Australia will stand aside and make a deal with whoever’s got the best offer. Economics.
4
The Australian economy has similarities to gulf states, a rich commodity exporting nation with a small population to spread the wealth around more evenly than is done in the USA. America has about 10 years left as the worlds largest economy and will be replaced by China whose growing technical capabilities and skilled workforce will replace many things American.
China will need Australia's commodity exports and technical expertise. Australia is wise to foster a healthy economic relationship with China which is the future.
23
@Joseph B
If you actually use Purchase Power Parity (PPP) instead of the less accurate GDP (a fact admitted by most economists) China's economy passed the US economy years ago. They also have a larger middle class defined as net assets US$50K to US$500K and all boats have been going up with China's rise white collar and blue collar workers. That's where all those "terrible" Chinese tourists are coming from. But those figures spook the horses so the US narrative machine actively ignores. (Awful Chinese tourists, dystopian government and voracious Chinese consumption on the other hand are favorite US memes)
3
Really? Who writes this stuff?
There is deep mistrust of China in the Australian media and political discourse. We banned Huawei and we've passed laws to counter foreign powers (read China) trying to influence our politics. Just like our US friends, we have sailed warships through the South China Sea to demonstrate freedom of navigation. Our Defence spending is ramping up quickly. We also have our own version of Trump (a coal-mining billionaire) campaigning in the current election on a strong anti-China platform.
We sell stuff to the Chinese because they want to buy it. That doesn't mean that we're giving up on liberal democracy and the western alliance.
65
Economic ties will bind you to China and you can’t undo that easily. Australia is and will be a mid tier economy. It will be dependent on US or China or India, the big 3 economies because they have a large market.
So no matter what, Australia isn’t gonna be able to take positions against China.
3
@Thought Provoking - US doesn't buy Australia's mineral exports - iron ore, coal. natural gas, nickel, bauxite etc. The US has plenty of each or they can buy closer to home Columbia, Brazil etc. The US is a major competitor when it comes to agriculture - beef, wheat, wine etc. And they are the major competitor in education. Ford and GM recently closed their Australia's plants. Today, their vehicles are imported from US, Germany South Korea, Thailand, UK, Poland etc etc.
2
@Mark
good luck to that mining billionaire if china bans all coal imports from australia.
Australia exports +30% of its goods to China making it the most important trading partner compared to US 5%
the man made wall street financial crash in 2008 sent US into deep recession, wiped out the savings of millions of americans and put many countries around the world into economic meltdown. it was the crucial moment when china demonstrated its importance to the global economy by shielding many countries from falling into recession.
i find it laughable that without chinas vast market, australia would still be in deep stagnation like in europe because china is the single player responsible for letting australia avoid a recession from the last decade.
regarding the scs issue, the west has no business in the dispute. let it be known that adjacent countries have been vying for control over the scs for decades in order for a stake in natural resources. countries like vietnam, phill, malaysia, brunei, china has been competing for decades. vietnam occupies like 40, phil around 10, and china around 5! all have been militarizing the reefs and conducting land reclamation for decades. then all a a sudden when china decides to expand its own islands then the western media started to hound and slander china. classic fake news propaganda at work.
8
Australian politicians are being tactical in avoiding either/or fallacies. Inevitably there will be tensions between Defense and Trade, between Australia’s dependence on US military might and the growing Australian economic dependence on China. This tension is reflected in the Australian government’s decision to ban Huawei from participating in the 5G rollout (a decision which angered China but pleased Five Eyes). However, such competing strategic interests means Australia must inevitably one day confront an either/or decision. China’s vision for dominance through Belt and Road is clear. The US seems adrift without a clear vision for the next 50 or even 20 years.
31
I lived in the US for many years and still have great affection for the country, however DJT statement about “trade wars are easy to win” is a fallacy and will harm many of the voters that helped to elect him. China will be the dominant economy of this century. I am not thrilled with many of the decisions of successive governments here, selling off the port of Darwin to China for example, but the PRC will continue their global expansion because they have the dollars to do so!
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Take note of this key statement from the article:
"both (of Australia's) major parties have called for a balanced foreign policy, aimed at maintaining the country’s longstanding national security alliance with the United States — while also looking to nurture the relationship with China."
I am very fond of Australia and its people. They were very nice to me during my 2 previous extended vacations there. But the position of the politicians described above is morally offensive. Those politicians want to accept huge risks in order to gain the benefits of a close relationship with China. But if the risks blow up against in their face, they want Americans to bear the burden of protecting them with American lives and they want the US to bear the financial burden now and continuing in the future to maintain a military force capable of protecting them.
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@Errol
There's always been the bizarre undercurrent in our security relationship with the US - that they would risk nuclear annihilation on our behalf, for example. Clearly the US would not under ordinary circumstances; with Trump having now permanently extracted trustworthiness from US relationships - except maybe Israel or anywhere he has large business interests - it has become only a question of time before we (Oz) have to bring our security and economic arrangements into some sort of alignment. The presence on Australian soil of major elements of American military communications is becoming untenable; they can - will - be used in another illegal war, this time against Iran, possibly just as Mueller sits down to testify to a House committee.
You have brought this on yourselves by refusing to engage realistically and cordially with China. God help us all.
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@Errol
True, but the strategic calculus here has moved on from the world you describe.
“America First” implies everyone else second.
To paraphrase Churchill: countries do not have friends, only interests.
So it’s entirely logical that Australia seeks the best path forward, the path that serves its interests. Not that of the States. Particularly when the whole question of US reliability as an ally is under question. Something that has never been doubted here before, but now part of our geopolitical thinking. A sad outcome for both countries but the new reality.
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@Paul W
"it’s entirely logical that Australia seeks the best path forward, the path that serves its interests. Not that of the States."
I agree that it is logical. And, I think Australia should follow a path that serves its interests. The offensive immorality of their politicians' current desires is that they want to ally with China in all things except they want the US military to pay the price to protect them if their alliance with China blows up in their face.
If Australia thinks alliance with China is in its interests, then they should do....completely, economically, diplomatically, and militarily. Let them rely on China military to protect their freedom.
5
Thank you America. Trump, the grand deal maker, is great for Australian exports. He fumbles around and we profit. We understand how big the middle class of China is growing. Tariffs do nothing but clog trade. Take a good look at what China wants and sell it to them. Simple.
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@John Food, and Trump punishes our farmers with soybean tariffs.
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@John
Australian and American economic interests conflict because they sell alot of same stuff to china. Dont wanna buy soybeans from US? Then china go will buy from russia, brazil, australia instead.
Why buy American beef, coal, gas, ore, wine, machinery, baby products when australia offers the same stuffs?
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Taking into account the trade and business numbers in New Zealand and USA, I find the reading rather sad reading, when you compare and contrast, the 'USA China Business Council' to the 'NZ China Business Council'. Do a web search of both to see what I mean. The NZ one has government support and the USA business council is non-profit without government support from what I've read.
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Australia is at the forefront of EV battery technology. Thanks to US banks like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, among others, Australia's advancements and innovation are prolific. China represents its largest target market and economic prize. In the context of Mr. Irwin's piece, wine is a decoy. Australia, like America, is dependent on the production and maximization of its precious natural resources, which mostly service China and other developing countries. They need to advance their battery technology and relationship with China so to diversify their economy away from mining. I've spent time in Australia's mining communities which look eerily similar to our now abandoned coal communities. Along with their falling currency, and debt pressure, the depressed price of oil has hurt them badly. Their government is no longer best served by a US first relationship. They are insuring their people don't end up like America's discarded workers. Or oppressed by communism. While Australia was innovating its way into a valuable new space and Chinese battery partnership, we are still developing cheaper ways to frack. Our water is now so compromised, some communities can't drink it, bath in it, let alone make wine with it. Australia is focused on their own survival and autonomy, preserving their vast terrain, great barrier reef, beaches and water sources. We are slowly but surely letting our planet and people perish. If we would do that to our people, what would we do to them?
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@Underhiseye “Australia is at the forefront of EV battery technology.”
While we can arguably say that our country “coulda, shoulda, woulda,” we have a large segment of our citizenry eschew science and innovation because the earth is less than 10,000 years old, believe that climate change is a Chinese hoax and, as our president* declared without any basis in fact, the 'Noise' from Windmills Causes Cancer.
1
If you think your trading markets with Europe and England are secure, USA better think again, as those regions are on board with free trade agreements and have joined the 'Belt And Road Initiative" that China has invested money and time into.
NZ and Australia have flourished by having free trade agreements with China and our leaders being respectful and diplomatic in negotiations with China.( Very similar to the way most nations conduct deals except for the USA when dealing with competition.)
If the USA doesn't get on board The Belt And Road Initiative and free trade deals you're going to be left behind.
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@CK
The US may be an important driver of world growth, but overly relying on it has its own consequences. After the wall street caused 2008 financial crash that led to worldwide economic meltdown. Many countries especially in europe are still reeling from its effects and not fully recovered yet to this day. While the US made a speedy recovery, its economy booming once more, the rest of the world, most notably in europe, japan etc are in a dire situation.
As the saying goes" if the us sneezes, then the whole world gets sick."
China has just recently overtook the us as the biggest driver for global growth. China and the US are now the leaders in driving the global economy.
Naturally it is in the smaller nations interests to not put all their eggs in one basket and diversify, and many had learned that lesson the hard way during the wall street crash of 2008.
this is why despite heavy US criticism of the BRI, many of its allies are enthusiastically signing up. half of eu countries already joined before Italy signed up. Shortly after, many more countries like switzerland, monaco, luxembourg signed up.
Already several 5 eyes countries, notably UK and NZ are contemplating signing up. UK's Phillip Hammond on a recent visit to China called Xi's BRI "a vision...Britain is committed to help realize the potential of China’s Belt and Road Initiative "
even new zealand are now praising China's BRI as a opportunity.
I bet my money these UK and NZ will sign up to the BRI.
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@CK
We’ll see. BRI is still evolving. Each project needs to generate a real return on the investment.
So far, BRI has been an environmental, corruption, sovereignty and usury nightmare for many developing countries.
Malaysia had to renegotiate the original price by 1/3rd downwards, which means it was overpriced originally. That’s a huge overcharge.
If the California gets involved with BRI, I don’t want to see San Francisco leased to the Chinese Communist Party for 99 years if it can’t service the debt.
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@CK Australia and New Zealand have a combined population smaller than California. Both are geographically isolated and culturally homogeneous compared to the USA. Both of your countries will always be susceptible to the vicissitudes of larger economic powers. You’ve negotiated the waters wisely, but do you really have any other choice?
The two extremes you face are a) becoming colonies for a wealthy authoritarian regime or b) “Romper Stomper Part 2”. I’d chill on doling out the advice.
4
In this article, it would be better to be quantitative. What is the revenue and balance of trade between Australia and the two countries?
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@M
Australia has a trade deficit with the US, and a humungous trade surplus with China. You can google the actual amounts. We have FTA’s with both.
7
Australia continues to have a favourable balance of trade with China due to exports of coal and iron ore. Chinese students are also a huge plus for Australia.
Since Trump has become President, some Australians are postponing travel to the US. A few Australians have been shot dead in the US, which is also a negative. We have thousands of troops who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan, struggling with serious mental health issues.
The US helped Australia defeat the Japanese in WW2. There are still strong ties between our nations, despite Trump insulting our ex PM in early 2017.
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@M Back in 1997 bilateral trade between Australia and the US was 33.7 billion Australian dollars, and the total with China was 9.7 billion Australian dollars. Two decades later it was A$68.5 billion and A$183.4 billion, respectively. Trade with Hong Kong is tallied separately, which amounted to another A$18.8 billion in 2017.
4
The idea that China has influence over Australia because Chinese people buy a lot from Australia seems to go against the standard narrative that China rigs the international trading system so that Chinese people sell a lot to the West but don't buy a lot in return.
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@Aoy
I do not see why the CCP would use the exactly the same tactics to influence Australia as they use elsewhere. The concerns over China potentially trying to gain influence in Australia are not new.
4
@Aoy the difference is that Australia has a lot that China does not. Coal, iron, Tim, bauxite... Etc. They have no choice unless they meddle and influence and interfere there ways to better deals. Hence....
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@Aoy
Trade works that way. Australia runs a trade surplus with China as the Chinese buy raw materials and a deficit with the US as Australia buys US goods. Chinese money circulates through Australia to lower America's trade deficit, in a net benefit to all 3 countries.
Simple economics but something the trade war boosters want to ignore.
10
Nothing to add to the main points of this piece. But bigger picture, despite huge progress on NYT coverage of climate change, including by Irwin, there are still these economics articles written as if there could ever be separation from environmental and social dimensions. The sectors mentioned and government officials still stay within their bottom line lanes as if water, heat, and changing political factors, mentioned in recent NYT articles about Australia, play no role in all this. As we see every day now that both the environment and society are failing, these can not be ignored by businesses. Moral issues of increasing types, such as Chinese treatment of dissent, keep hitting businesses and they need help navigating them, whether they know it or not. We actually need their leadership. (As strange as that might seem, there are actually precedents now for moral leadership by businesses--if you look for them.) Growth itself, as the be-all-and-end-all objective, has been questioned for decades in academic and non-profit circles. It's time to put that elephant in the living room on the mainstream economics agenda, too, so we can consider creative alternatives. We're in trouble folks, and to have any chance we're going to have to look at things differently. Seemingly "sensible" approaches such as staying neutral, keeping your head down, re-focusing your target market, assuming your traditional business or other box will continue business-as-usual-like won't cut it.
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