The primary purpose of the Democrats is in the coming election is to choose the right candidate to beat Trump, period. Republicans most probably will get some help from the Russians so the efforts to dethrone Trump must be impressive – starting with: not repeating the same mistakes of 2016.
• Biden, on the issue of kissing and hugging, said: "I’m sorry I didn’t understand more, I’m not sorry for any of my intentions. I am not sorry for anything that I have ever done. (wow) I have never been disrespectful intentionally to a man or a woman. So that’s not the reputation I’ve had since I was in high school, for God’s sake." (Translation. I am sorry but not to a point where I am truly sorry– you know what I mean –c’mon man)
• Hillary responding to Anderson Cooper question on her flip-flops: “Well, actually, I have been very consistent. Over the course of my entire life, I have always fought for the same values and principles, but like most human beings -- including those of us who run for office -- I do absorb new information. I do look at what's happening in the world.” (I am consistent as any other politician – you listen then act accordingly – got it?)
Sounds familiar?
And –
• DNC – this time, play fair.
• Department of Homeland Security/Facebook/etc. – do your job – it’s your country.
• Supporters of ALL other democratic candidates- go and vote for the winner – even if you don’t like him or her.
• CNN et al – please no more free advertisement for Trump.
3
All I ask of Democrats - okay, beg - is that if Biden gains the nomination, they will loudly and animatedly cheer him on, not turn their backs and go sulk in the corner. While I too question whether he is the most electable Democratic nominee, what is absolutely beyond question is his central point that another four years of Trump will ruin our nation.
18
It’s really hard to know. Biden does not particularly appeal to me, being rather low-slung and a bit queasy but he does appear steady and imperturbable. He smiles enough and whatever he gives we are grateful for. He is good enough and doesn’t subject us to the highs that set him up for the lows, the Trumpian attacks. The other candidates have their shining stars and Biden does not glitter too much, but let me say this, I think I will prefer the frump to the Trump.
2
The short answer is "Yes, Joe Biden is the most electable Democrat running for the presidency of the United States."
He is our best hope of unseating that creature feature who currently occupies our White House via a hostile takeover provided by the invaluable assistance of Trump's best buddy, Vladimir Putin.
2
What makes Biden the most electable Democratic candidate is that the candidates who get the most media coverage have moved too far to the left.
2
In Chicago we often quote one our city fathers, the architect and city planner, Daniel Burnham: "Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood and probably themselves will not be realized." Joe Biden is a little plan.
8
Unless many voters remain gullible at this point (e.g., making a crisis out of a few emails in a private server) I would propose that Hillary Clinton comes back. She's most experienced and capable vs anyone in the pack. In addition, she's 7 years younger than Biden.
1
Thank you, Mr. Bouie, for this excellent column. Joe Biden may not be the least electable Democrat, but if so, that's only because some of the current candidates are the sort of early-stage entrants who are more attractive to themselves than to any great number of voters. Mr. Biden is certainly not the second coming of Barack Obama (who would be a much better choice, if he were available, though I strongly think not the best choice because he didn't prove to be the sort of fighter that Republican obstruction means that the Democrats need). Biden has obvious weaknesses that will reduce his support among core Democratic voters. He doesn't show excellent judgment--too often, just the opposite. He's just another older white male. Older white males can be well qualified to be president, but if Democrats are going to nominate one, he'd better be someone really special if he's going to preclude a choice from among the many other sorts of people who make up the Democratic party. We're in a situation where the Democratic nominee needs to be someone whose choice makes a statement other than "not as out of control with his hands as Bill Clinton".
4
I find it very hard to believe that a Biden candidacy wouldn't be 2016 redux. I think he's ahead in the polling because of name recognition, and his numbers won't last.
We need new blood. We need someone at least outside the establishment, if not anti-establishment. I think Bernie Sanders is probably the only one in the federal government who has a chance of winning. Otherwise we need someone like Pete Buttigieg.
But it's really too early to say much of anything, especially that Biden could beat Trump.
5
@Dystopia Exactly. A lot of great dialog and ideas can come out of having 20+ candidates. I'm not so much anti-Biden as anti-forgone conclusion.
1
The real issue comes after the election is over. If the Democrats nominate another cautious, centrist neoliberal like Biden, and even if he wins, then what? Does Uncle Joe have enough vision, radical thinking and leadership skills to fix the critical systemic issues we face, with climate crisis, with our healthcare system, with extreme inequality, with our electoral system? Does he even recognize these issues as being existential to our society, maybe even to the planet? I doubt it.
Defeating Trump *is* the core issue. But there are many paths to that goal, and Biden is far from the best one. Nor could he be the President who, like FDR before him, transforms our country for the better, and helps us heal after the Trump era.
5
It is premature to be doing anything about 2020. We now live in a state of non-stop campaigning. With current electronic capabilities most in the country can be contacted instantly. Instead we deal, 24/7 with a constant barrage of commercials, innuendo and fund raising. What a waste of time and money. We need time limits on campaigns!
7
Before you decide, listen to Elizabeth Warren. She is the only one worth voting for (that's my opinion).
2
If voters believe that Hillary shouldn't run again (as they do and for the reasons they do) then neither should Joe Biden. It's that simple.
5
Why, when the people who voted Trump in because they wanted radical change, would we go back to the "way things were"?
Everyone wants an honest and common sense approach to government but do we really want to decide NOW to play it safe?
It's not that I am against Biden. I like him. But I want to hear things shake down a bit from the other candidates. Let them solidify their platforms and find their voice. Just don't make it a bullying, loud mouth liar of a voice like the last candidate that won.
6
Listening to NPR each morning for the Biden Update. I didn't know the other candidates had dropped out so early.
9
Biden is the death of all hopes to unseat Trump.
Smart communication of good policies will unseat Republicans, incl Trump. Personality contests won’t.
On merit and character and policies no one beats Tulsi2020 in my book. For unknown reasons, but a reminder of 2016 and Sanders, she gets ghosted by the NYT.
To all the old timers hoping another septuagenarian will save the day I say, nah. Won’t happen.
6
Let Biden be Biden.
Dem's it's your baby, and as long as he is able to free-wheel it's a gift to Trump and the Repubs.
6
You missed the part about Trump masquerading as a swamp drainer. That certainly doesn't fly with a lot of folks now.
No, no, no, no!
Biden is too old, too male, too white, too gaffe-prone. There is a reason why Obama did not endorse him over Hillary. His very poor performance during the Thomas confirmation hearings will still prevent many women and black voters from going out to vote for him. Without enthusiasm from those groups, what chance would the Democrats have??? Sigh.
3
He has the same problems as Hillary Clinton, why would we want another that has a fast track to losing?
5
Hillary is more electable.... and by a good bit. Here's the calculus... It is very likely that nearly everyone who voted for HRC would do so again—no one regrets voting for Hillary instead of Donald Trump—but there are countless voters (likely millions of them) who regret voting for Trump and not HRC. HRC beat Trump by 3 million votes so anything about that is gravy... If Hillary concentrates on the labor states with real pro labor policies, and then wins Florida because of her hard stance against anti-semiticism, I think she would win it. She appears considerably less frail and a lot younger than Biden, and she's still as formidable as Sanders. Just saying....Hillary/Buttigieg? Hillary/Harris? Hillary/Beto? Hillary/Warren?
2
A progressive democratic presidential candidate? More "cowbell".
"En effet,"Democrats r ignoring perhaps the strongest, most articulate politician they have in the party, who could give The Donald a run for his money, Sen. HIRONO from Hawaii. Even ABH, as a Trump supporter but with reservations, was impressed by her interrogation of AG Barr, and despite its viciousness, 1 could not help liking her. Her bitterness can be explained by the fact that she had had rough childhood, family was more or less abandoned by an alcoholic father, and , "il ne faut pas oublier,"she is of Japanese descent , and carries within her heart a resentment of the US for having dropped 2 atomic bombs on the land of her ancestors, Japan,when Imperial Japan was on the verge of surrendering. My theory is that if FDR had stuck with Henry Wallace as his v.p. rather than choose HST, a nasty little man, Wallace might have persuaded the president to be more patient rather than commit the irremediable act of dropping not 1 but 2 bombs, killing hundreds of thousands, dooming survivors to a lifetime of living with the effects of radiation.Given the mediocrity of the present candidates,Sen. Hirono stands out."Encore une fois,"in the crazy political times in which we live,Hirono would appear to be the most magnetic.I say this as a Trump supporter: Her plain spoken eloquence is captivating.Draft her as a dark horse."mon avis!"
1
This emphasis on electability is just plain stupid. It implies reading the minds of the masses.
Support and vote for the candidate who most reflects your values and wishes.
If you want someone who opposed bussing for integration and could offer no alternative to achieving integration, if you want someone who voted for invading Iraq, someone who pushed legislation supporting credit card companies at the expense of the working class, someone who helped incarcerate a generation of young blacks, someone who denied Anita Hill the support she deserved, if you want someone who gave us Clarence Thomas, then, by all means, support Biden. That at least will be a more honest move than supporting Biden because of some fanciful, fictitious notion of "electability."
4
In a Trump vs Biden race, imagine Trump's first rally
"So the socialist democrats elected old sleepy Joe Biden. He says he is a "Union Guy". Well a lot of people are saying that before he announced in front of the Firefighters Union, even though most of the firefighters support me, he met with and got money from a law firm that specializes in "Union Busting". Thats what we should call old Joe
Union Busting Joe
He is playing all the democrats because he is part of the Obama Swamp. You all know I love union workers. I dont need all these peoples money...because I am rich"
The worst part is that while its embellished, it still has a kernel of truth. Biden would be the worst candidate to nominate.
2
perhaps Joe Biden would do better to run as a Republican.
4
"And the gender politics that constrained Clinton’s career — that harmed her standing whenever she reached for national office — don’t apply to Biden."
Are we ever going to talk about the correlation between the 2016 drop in black voters in OH, PA, and WI and misogyny within that community (and the Hispanic community), or are we going to keep pretending that's a white thing?
2
Please, no comparisons between HRC and Joe Biden.Hillary was darkened by the shadow of Bill Clinton, just as Al Gore was in 2000. Biden, conversely, is brightened by the light of Barack Obama, who did not have a single indictment in eight years.
Not with my vote!
2
Shouldn't we all vote for Joe Biden because of:
1. the many working people he has driven to desperation through his vigorous support of NAFTA and the vile TPP. Talk is cheap, so are hugs.
2. all the students who are now carrying crushing debt loads and look forward to a life of servitude that Biden made possible by making sure they would not be able to declare bankruptcy? He is called "Mr. MBNA" for a reason.
3. all the sons and daughters who were killed or maimed in Iraq, after Biden held – per Scott Ritter UN arms inspector – sham hearings promoting such war. When Biden publicly mourns the untimely death of his son, does he ever publicly mourn the deaths of millions of innocent men and women he helped cause?
4. all many African-American men and women whose lives he helped ruin via draconian penalties for crimes, which many of them did not even commit, with his vigorously pushing through the now infamous Crime Act of 1994? You were so proud of this viciously racist bill and your friendship with segregationist Helms.
5. all the women he has disrespected with his unwanted touching, and still won’t admit it is not innocent – it’s how he fakes being a “friend” to people.
Please go away, Joe Biden, media invention, job and people killer, cruel smiling fake.
6
Biden is the Democrat's Maginot Line against the Trump blitzkrieg. Good luck with that.
3
Joe Biden is a white, cis-gendered, old male.
Therefore he is disqualified from running for president!
Omar/AOC
2020
7
I just can't with any more white men over 70. They are the past. We need the future of the Democratic Party. There are so many excellent candidates. I wish Biden and Bernie would stop standing in their way. Sure - if it comes down to it, and Biden is the final candidate, I'll hold my nose, send my apologies to Anita Hill (not even mentioned in this article) and vote for him over Trump. But seriously, I want to be excited about a candidate and the future. Biden and Bernie aren't doing it for me.
13
He's not the most "electable", he's just the most recognizable. He's also been in politics the longest and some (including me) would say too long. You have experience, know the job, and can manage on a national level. But speaking as an old white male I can honestly say that the last thing we need right now is another old white male in the Oval. Stay in the game but shout from the sidelines. Sorry Joe, you're past your sell-by date.
10
@Tom Scott
He's not the most "electable", he's just the only one whose not leftwing.
3
There is no reason to assume that white blue-collar workers are "gone". Not all are dedicated racists. But obviously the way to appeal to workers of all races is through economic policy. The growth of inequality, which continued through the Bill Clinton and Obama administrations, must be reversed. Democratic policies must be more concerned with the welfare of workers rather than corporations, Wall Street and big banks.
Biden has a reputation of standing for blue-collar workers, but in reality his economic record is mixed. Perhaps it will be that reputation which would be gone in a hard campaign. It remains to be seen whether he now has economic ideas and policies that would be useful to workers rather than just a vague identification.
3
The basic bottom line is that it is _way too early_ to be discussing front runners, the most electable, etc. We have an exciting array of candidates. Indivisible and other organizing groups are inspiring and urging people to support whomever the Democratic candidate ends up being, and people--and candidates--are making that pledge. The Press needs to stop marketing Joe Biden and stop sowing the seeds of division. The field is deep, fertile and, apparently, still blooming. Let's see what kinds of conversations, policies, and enthusiasm these candidates can generate, own their own, with their words and vision of and for the future.
4
For most of us in the political center, we see Trump as an aberration and Biden as the Democrat most likely to beat him.
But reading the most popular comments on this editorial raises a question I’ve been thinking about for months:
Are the readers of this paper that far left of center or only the commentators?
Does anyone (including anyone at the NYT) have any insight into that question?
I’d love to know.
11
@Steven Roth: I think reality is that Biden is more right of center (at least for a Democrat) than you may believe. Also, the "center" of American opinion may not be where many think it is.
Polling over the past few years consistently shows that Americans strongly favor policies that are generally considered "progressive" or, by some people, leftist.
13
@Steven Roth
The Democrats need someone that can show them a centrist approach can and does work. That’s Joe Biden. There has never been a better contrast from Trump.
Hillary lost because in a lot of ways people couldn’t tell a meaningful difference between the Trumps and Clintons. That left a lot of people to stay at home because it didn’t feel like it was worth picking between two horrible choices.
For me, the only question going forward is which candidate would make the best VP for Biden. Again, contrast in this area is extremely important. It needs to be someone very different from Biden, someone that doesn’t pull punches and knows how to be impolite without going too far or sounding inauthentic. How about.... Tulsi Gabbard.
That ticket would be invincible, historical, and amazing.
4
@Marion
Centrism is conservative appeasement.
It doesn’t work and the DNC has 30 years of proof. I am a committed Progressive who will NEVER vote for another fake Republican DINO, Joe Biden or otherwise.
14
Is Biden the most electable Democrat? Who knows? Certainly not Joe Biden.
If Joe Biden is elected president, we will get 4 more years of Democratic Clinton-Obama centrism. Can Biden reverse 4 years of Trump destruction? No. The Republican party won't let him.
I'd rather take my chances with Warren or Buttigieg.
3
No, Biden is not the most electable. Far from it. But the media evidently has made up it's mind that he is.
3
It's so disappointing when the "liberal media" continues to force feed us "old moderate Democrats" the fallacy that Joe Biden is the only old white man who could defeat D. Trump. If Biden had not been Obama's VP, no one would be talking about Joe Biden at this time.
He certainly was not an avid supporter of Hillary Clinton in 2016 and kept saying he could have beaten Trump. If Bernie, Biden and the media would have shown more support for Hillary, she might have won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. They helped elect D. Trump along with Comey and the Russians.
1
Blame Trump for the demise of HRC if you will. He deserves it. But you can't avoid naming the true villain viz. the main line press, including most definitely the Times. WikiLeaks, Clinton Foundation, Comey/Weiner. To say nothing of picking on her health. And believe me, they'll do it again vis-a-vis all or almost all of the vast array of 2020 Democratic candidates.
2
Any Democrat who wins the nomination is the most electable to me, including "Democrat for the occasion" Bernie Sanders. VOTE!
3
One thing not discussed: it's not necessarily that reactionary whites will return to vote Dem. It's that Biden as a candidate will not infuriate the reactionary whites to the extent other candidates might, and more of them might stick with their beers at home and not bother to vote.
2
Just wait until he opens his mouth and puts both feet in it. They won’t be able to run fast enough. Democrats have a very poor memory of Biden’s electoral record. Obama gave him name recognition. He didn’t do anything to get it.
2
I will never choose another candidate based on who might appeal to Republican voters. I did that with war hero John Kerry. Boy was that an eye opening experience.
That being said I will vote for whoever the Democrats nominate in 2020 even if it's a squirrel.
Biden is not the guy. We need a standard-bearer, like Sanders, a practical policy-maker, like Warren, a sharp articulate critic, like Harris, a climate activist, like Inslee. All these people have energy and clarity. They will run rings around shouty nasty Trump. Biden won’t; he’s just not that guy.
3
This piece reminds me of a long-time on-going issue with my beloved wife. I'll plan a vacation or long weekend to NYC or wherever and my wife will immediately veto the idea. "OK" I say "where do you want to go?" "I don't know" she'll say "but I don't want to go where you suggest". Same with Mr. Bouie and a lot of other Democrats. They obviously don't want Mr. Biden but as to their better alternative? "I don't know". Please let us know when you do.
3
Good analysis, beautifully written.
Sorry, Biden is just "Republican Lite" - what about single payer (meaning affordable!) healthcare like the rest of the industrialized world, saving the planet for future generations - he has nothing new to offer. Time for a change for the better, not the same old same old!
3
Perfect is the enemy of good.
A Republican could not have made a better case, finding fault with Biden.
The Democrats are determined to be the plucky losers in 2020, finding fault with each candidate and in turn finding generalized fault with all their candidates.
By the time it becomes clear they have talked and written themselves out of a Presidential win they will realize the House is in danger and the Senate a complete disaster.
Biden will lose to Trump. I am a democrat. Its so sad that this old 4 time loser of Presidential race is the what we feel is the best we got.
Where is the next Obama? A young up and comer....
I dont get why we are going with Biden.
Biden is a good guy but he isn't gonna win.
2
The most electable Democrat is not running. That would be Michael Bloomberg.
2
Joe might be the most electable. We don’t know yet.
How about if we stop disqualifying people by race, gender or age...yes, even if they happen to be old white guys. To disqualify based on these factors is what we are supposed to be Against. It is also foolish to thus limit the pool of possible choices.
Let’s hear what everyone has to say, listen thoughtfully, consider their policies, and then choose the one who has the best chance to win. That will surely be someone who does not ignore the rust belt and who does not go out of their way to insult working people.
13
The majority of American people, when polled, agree with Bernie. Consistently.
Biden's are not.
The Democratic establishment machine is untruthful propaganda and unrepresentative.
1
He cannot win. He will not win. Will that keep the Dems from running him. Not a chance!
2
Mr. Biden can handle what Trump throws at him. Mr. Biden has even more to throw back at Trump.
Yup. None of this host of fruit and nut cakes or unvetted amateurs will make it. The democratic party will fail, splintered, as it caters to impassioned niche issues, won't cut mustard in the GE. Mark my words.
1
Democrats should change their approach. “We must win in 2020 because our platform includes......”. instead of ‘we have to beat Trump’. A fight like that will continue to bulk up his base and alienate voters.
Democrats NEED the women whose husbands, sons and daughters now have jobs. Democrats NEED Black Hispanic, and LBGTQ voters who are demonized, discriminated against and attacked just because of who they are. Democrats NEED to lead the country back to a civilized place where lawfullness and humanity are more than just words in a dictionary.
There have to be some Republicans who are appalled at what is going on in our society and how it is being lead today. There have to be some Independants who could agree to a platform that intends to elevate us out of the swamp. There have to be voters who want our elected officials representing the people they work for. But using “beat Trump” will not win the battle, I assure you. That should be the thought but not the process.
1
Biden is too conservative, so conservative that I might as well vote for a Republican. He and his peers helped US into the Bush wars and let the bankster crooks from the Great Recession go Scott free. "Moderate," corporate, timid Democrats haven't done anything substantive to improve our lives in decades, even when they could have. I'd rather vote for the orange entity than a fake progressive.
3
Enough with the Biden bashing already. The NYT seems to have a parade of opinion columnists coming up with all kinds of reasons why Biden is not 'electable. So far they haven't sunk as low as the Opinion piece in the WP that asked white men to 'lean out' so that women could take the lead. Please!
Biden may not be ideal but can we stop being such fragile politically correct snowflakes and take a good hard look at who will vote for him? the moderates. The same moderates who will not vote for an AOC or an Elizabeth Warren (yes I know AOC isn't running but the candidates seem often tempted to imitate her). We lost the last election because democrats were disenchanted by a candidate forced down their throats an felt that they were being told who to vote for. Those same people, and more, will not vote if an extreme candidate runs against Trump.
And Biden's electability does not rest on Obama - it rests on the fact that he has still maintained a sense of decency and optimism about reuniting the country and has the experience to do it.
10
@Diana
Maybe it would be helpful for someone to explain why moderates ad centrists - people who are specifically NOT Democrats - feel they should have some sort of official role in selecting who should be the Democratic presidential nominee and shaping that person’s policy platform. I never hear any pundits or NYT readers put forth this same paradigm for Republicans. No one has ever suggested the GOP must “moderate to the center,” only DEMOCRATS are expected to do that.
Perhaps you can help me understand the logic behind a strategy that dismisses the wishes of the an entire base of partisan Democrats to allow people who are not Democrats to decide who Democrats can vote for and what they stand for. I’d like to hear how this is a “winning” strategy.
11
The only time the dems rose to greatness was when FDR and LBJ were at the helm. They were truly great leaders. Flawed yes but were really the right persons for their times. We need someone like them now. At this point I don't see it. The fact Trump is president and that 40% of Americans support him truly troubles me.
The Democratic party leans more left than ever. But everyone is telling us progressives that our ideas and candidates are going to lose elections. Why? The past record except for Obama has been awful. I would say that if those in the center left don't like the progressive candidate and vote with Trump never really had the mind-share anyway.
1
@Charleston Yank
I am center left because I think the way to win is to retake the middle. I also think that we win back the rust belt by making working people believe the Dems care about them. That includes many who, for example, have insurance through work, like it, and are unsure about Medicare for all. They also worked hard to put themselves or their kids through college, and might not like a giveaway to current students.
If I vote for a more centrist candidate in the primary, that does not mean I will “vote with Trump.” That is a false syllogism, but I think you already know that.
Your rather angry rhetoric only serves to divide the Dems, which is just what Trump wants. We must listen to all candidates, hear them out, and then nominate the one who can best beat Trump, even if it’s (horrors)a centrist old white guy. That is almost the only thing that matters.
Though I did so with little enthusiasm, I voted for HRC in 2016. She went out of her way to insult working people and chose to ignore the rust belt, costing her the election and giving us Trump. Even if I am similarly unenthusiastic in 2020, I will vote for the Dem again. But I think we’re going to be motivated to get rid of Trump, and that we’ll stick together.
I think Bernie was unfairly treated in the 2016 primary. But it may also be true that, had Bernie given HRC strong support, she’d have won, so perhaps you should look in the mirror and give yourself the same lecture you just gave us.
2
@Charleston Yank
To win, the Dems must win the center back, the rust belt back, the working class back.
A lot of those folks have insurance at work and like it, and are therefore not happy with Medicare For All. They worked very hard to get through college, and/or to get their kids through college. They are thus not happy with the notion of a free ride for today's college kids.
We need to support whoever is the Den nominee, period. Your angry rhetoric divides us, playing right into trump's hands.
2
All of this political talk about who is electable ignores the fact that what is happening in this country (with as much Democratic complicity as Republican) is consolidation of wealth -- ALL of it -- into the hands of a very few billionaire families. The American Legislative Exchange Council, along with families like the Kochs, the DeVoses, the Mercers, the Waltons, and so on, want it ALL. Not just most of it, ALL of it. This is a class of people who believe that they are rich because they are special. Everyone else is undeserving.
These people have bought the entire GOP, as well as much of the Democratic establishment. MAGA, and Trump, are all about keeping white people's attention focused down the economic ladder and at people whose skin pegmentation is darker than theirs, and blaming those people for their plight, instead of up the ladder where it belongs. And white America is buying into it. They will only wise up when it's too late. It may already be.
4
Nope, not voting for Biden. Same reasons I wouldn’t vote for Clinton.
I loathe Trump, but if Democrats come up with another Republican-light as their nominee, I will again vote for someone else. And if Trump gets re-elected, don’t say I didn’t warn you.
They can do better.
We can do better.
2
The fact that Biden thinks Trump is an abberration is in itself dangerous. Trump has the highest approval rating among Republicans of any president since Reagan. The GOP legislators refuse to stand up to him and fall in line. This is not an abberration. Trump IS the GOP now. His election is a response to the neoliberal economics of the last thirty years, and is also pushback against a diversifying electorate. Trump is not an aberration. His is a symptom. Austerity needs to be reversed. Inequality needs to be dealt with. Trumpism must be addressed. To say the problem is only Trump is to ignore the larger issues to a dangerous degree, and set us up for another, smarter, tyrant in the future.
4
@Ashleigh Adams No. Trump is the one with his hand on the tiller, and he's steering us to Hell. we need to get his hand off, and then worry about redesigning the boat.
Remember...support whomever gets the Democratic nomination, but even more important vote every Republican out of Congress.
If you can, contribute time and money to Democrats running for Congress. Throwing Trump out is not enough. We need Americans in Congress, not Republicans.
11
Is the election about 51% or about the 100%? Reversing the Trump impact would mean having a president who Seriously engages with the entire country and who can start to overcome the excessive tribalism of our Times.
2
Yes, he is the most electable candidate. That doesn't mean others couldn't be elected but they are not as sure a bet. How much risk should we take is probably a better question?
1
There's plenty of time for Democrats to select their candidate so let's all just relax and hear each wannabe candidate out before jumping on anyone's bandwagon.
Joe has a lot of momentum already but he's yesterday's newspaper in lots of ways. But he has a serious lead over the next candidate down, at least for now.
I could more easily get behind Joe than Bernie or any of the other candidates right now but I'm hoping one or more candidates will show us a reason to nominate him or her.
Biden has always been the standard bearer for the white middle class, from busing to mass incarceration and a flirtation with the Balanced Budget Amendment.
Like the white middle class his thoughts and beliefs have evolved. In 2012 it was Biden who basically forced Obama to back gay marriage by coming out in favor himself. This caused quite a kerfluffle in the Obama White House at the time. People do evolve. And Biden evolves in tune to the white middle class. This is the basis of his appeal
Biden is reassuring to the middle and makes a credible promise to navigate back to saner waters.
While a return to the past is not the answer to the problems of the present (inequality and climate) a return to a comfortable normality is craved by all.
The answer is a Biden/Warren or Bide/Harris ticket where it is understood an outspoken VP will wield real power and function as a path to the future.
Progressives fighting the middle is not the answer.
Progressives need to make a deal with the middle that acknowledges that the need to return to normalcy has to be balanced with an agenda and leaders for the future.
Biden/Warren is a deal we can all live with and one that promises a better America.
3
"As he did with Clinton, Trump can slam him on these issues and sow division among Democratic voters." Sounds about right. Curious that the party of Clinton and Obama, two new faces who succeeded in exciting the nation along with their base, has grown so timid. I remember so well the day Clinton announced Gore as his running mate. I remember so well Obama bringing tears to Jackson's eyes. So now the Dems pick their party's Bob Dole, a good man to be sure, but let's face it, quite literally not a man of tomorrow. Biden if nothing else belongs to yesteryear, he is to put it kindly, a has-been, a notoriously bad candidate, an outright mediocrity. Trump has so many faults, yet he is bound to outshine Biden who was out this week defending NAFTA. Let's face it, he's a dud. Can it be true there is not a person of accomplishment out there worthy of the Party's support? Why not pick a winner, a success, a leader? Every vice president, after all, is not presidential material. Humphreys, Agnew, Rockefeller, Mondale, Gore: it's a long list, a list Biden belongs on. Pick a winner in 2020, someone like Obama with a vision. Biden's message is that Trump is not nice. That's not enough.
5
This is the perfect argument of why we need ranked choice voting. Joe Biden isn't my first choice among Democrats, but I'll vote for anyone who can beat Trump. I think many Americans are thinking the same thing.
8
All this speculation and nonsense at this stage of the 2020 election is meaningless. The fact is Vice President Biden has taken of like a rocket in the polls showing a deep longing on the part of the electorate to rid our country for what passes as a government. Folks the very essence of our democracy is at stake and people see the VP as the one person that can restore their
faith.
2
The real question is not who appears the most 'electable' or the most 'likeable' but whose policies address the voters' real concerns. Senator Sanders is the pro-working class, Socialist candidate. Biden, Warren, Harris, Booker, Beto & Mayor Pete are Capitalist candidates. This distinction is apparently too simple for bourgeois journalists to understand, but the Democratic Primary voters will, and elect the Socialist Sanders. The real issue is the failure of the capitalist system . . . .
5
I have nothing against Socialism but Bernie too strikes me very much as yesterday's man - and Trump will rip him to shreds. That horse is out of the barn. Let's choose some new candidates who haven't yet tried and failed to get the nomination already.
3
@Red Allover And the socialist system is so amazingly successful as evidenced by...? Venezuela? Cambodia? USSR? It is, of course, possible that the Democratic primary will nominate Sanders. In this case, get ready for four more years of Trump. In case you have not noticed, whatever is left of the “working class” are solidly behind him.
1
Do not support a primary candidate who takes corporate/PAC money. It corrupts his/her values and the bribe always need to be paid back at the expense of the poor, working and middle class.
10
He's not my "favorite" as that moniker goes to Pete Buttigieg but as to whether or not he's the "most electable Democrat" then I'd say "yes, he is."
3
@Phyliss Dalmatian is absolutely right: let the process work. Campaign passionately but cleanly for your candidate - and then get behind the Democratic nominee for president.
The nihilism of Democrats taking their blocks and going home-literally staying at home instead of voting in 2016- is destroying our country. I, personally, find it inspirational to have a Free Press, a Supreme Court with at least a semblance of balance for the next few generations, a woman's legal right to choose, cleaner air, land and water, and a newspaper front page that doesn't need a daily detox from Trump's Twitter diatribes.
We have a good crop of Democratic candidates for president. Stop attacking them, and tell them to stop attacking each other- and get Trump out.
7
Ouch! If blue collar voters are gone from the Democratic Party then ours is no longer the party of labor. If we don't appeal to working folk then who "pray tell" is our base? If it's the educated elites from the coasts we are doomed.
7
@Richard Winkler
It was the eager insulting of working people and ignoring of the rust belt by HRC that gave us Trump.
4
@Franco51 She wasn't referring to working people when she said "deplorables." She was referring to those who did not find Trump's insulting of a disabled man, or his insulting of a Gold Star family, or his insulting of women, or Mexicans, or gays, a deal breaker. THAT's who she was insulting, not working people.
Footnote: Clinton didn't lose the election based on votes. She won the election by over 3 million votes. It's the electoral college (a small group of states that are "more equal" (see Animal Farm) than the rest of the states) that elected Individual 1 to the Presidency.
7
Trying to win over "moderate" republicans, if such a thing even exists anymore, is a fool's errand. The more people who vote, especially young people, the better chance the dems have of winning. The mantra of the Democratic party needs to be "get out the vote", not "convert the 'moderates'". We need a Democratic candidate who will motivate voters who abstained in 2016 to get off their couches and into polling stations. Biden is not that candidate.
17
Neither is St. Bernie.
1
I'm completely with Jamelle Bouie on this one: popularity is not at all the same as electability. Uncle Joe is vulnerable indeed.
The question for Democratic primary voters is whether they want to go back to the way things were before Trump or whether they want to acknowledge the profound rot in our system and leap forward. Fear and caution has a lot of people looking backwards but that's Trump's territory. The candidate who can give us a credible vision of a future worth fighting for is the one to beat.
12
The key words in this article are "fight the last war". Biden is old (only a certain number of years older than I am!), and his views and solutions are framed by the past. The key question in this election should be whether we want someone who looks backwards to a racist, restrictive America, or an America of plenty for everyone. Biden is a Clintonian Democrat, which means that he tried to move halfway toward the Republicans way 20 years ago. And we can see how little fundamental difference that has made for the country. In fact, thanks to those compromises, like "reforming welfare instead of really putting a better and more equal system of education and training in place for all, the mediocrity of those approaches has left them vulnerable to the Trump's demagoguery. It's time for a younger leader, someone with fresh vision, who will give Trump's blue collar voters something to vote for.. That means big vision, and big leadership skills, far more than an also-ran politician from the 1980s.
8
It's interesting to me that Biden has eschewed identity politics (which I admire) when he could have easily proclaimed his intersectionality as an elderly guy with too much baggage. In order to draw the liberal vote these days he needs to embrace some form of victimhood and insist that gives him more moral authority than any person he happens to be talking to.
5
It is a fine line between tenacious and stubborn. He has failed to gain the nomination before - he should learn from that and instead offer his assistance to a new contender.
10
There's a big difference between 2020 and 2016. No one knew how Trump would behave in the White House. After two years, we have a much clearer picture, and many voters who held their noses and voted for Trump now want to rectify their mistake. Many of them see Biden as a familiar, known quantity - not too far to the left, but solidly Democratic, and experienced. Most importantly, he respects the office and the constitution. it's no surprise that he already leads in the polls, and his supporters don't seem concerned about any skeletons in his closet. They just want to fix the Great Mistake of 2016.
3
Clinton may have been popular in polls when she was Secretary of State, but it so many people had bought into the anti-Clinton conspiracy propaganda the Republicans spewed since the 1990's that Trump had a ready-made cesspool of slime to dip into (Vince Foster, Pizzagate, etc.). And she had the very real experience of attacking Bill's accusers. Biden has experience and therefore a past. But his past contains nothing disqualifying for the Presidency. In fact, the causes Joe Biden has espoused throughout his life, and his ability to build consensus and govern from the center is why folks think he's the best candidate not just to beat Trump, but someone who can restore our national values and bind up the wounds of our recent division. To decide not to nominate him because Trump and the neo-Republicans won't fight fair is all the more reason to confront their scorched earth tactics with calm, sensible, honorable decency.
2
This piece does not make sense. Each individual casts one vote. The a writer acts like there is going to be some communal decision made and if you are a Democrat you will go along. No. People will decide for themselves. At the moment Biden is clearly the candidate that individual voters appear to favor for their one vote.
6
Journalists have got to stop quoting national poll numbers and national approval ratings. The next election will be decided in the same five states in which the last one was decided: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Who's ahead in those states- Biden or Trump? And do any of the other Democratic candidates fare better in those states than Biden does? If so, he/she should be the Party's nominee. Biden would give the progressives (myself included) four-fifths of what we want. Trump would continue to drive the nation backward. Plus, another Trump appointee to the Supreme Court will send us back a century and for decades to come. What's there to think about?
comment submitted 5/6 at 10:58 PM
8
@stu freeman
You make a very good point about not looking at national poll numbers.
But, it’s more than five states that will decide. We should look at all states where the winner was within 5 points of the loser (turnout and new voters will impact this). So, to your five states, maybe add MN, NV, AZ, NC, NH, CO, GA, VA, ME possibly also IA (9 point margin for Trump, but mid terms swung towards Dems).
That’s it. These are the 15 states polls should track.
2
@stu freeman, you’re right, I forgot about the USSC. If Trump is re-elected, I doubt RBG can outlive his 2nd 4 years. She’s old and she’s sick, and she will be replaced on the Court by Trump between now and 2020, or by Trump between 2020 and 2024. Unless.....
1
ANY of the D candidates is a change agent because it means the most corrupt president in US history is out of office. It also means removal of Trump's enablers, starting with the dis-Barrable AG and the industry sycophants that deny climate change and are systematically dismantling every essential regulation in place for decades.
I understand the importance of evaluating the candidates, including their "electability." What I cannot understand is why the D's are already starting to eat their own so far in advance of Iowa caucuses. Can we at least wait until New Hampshire?
5
Thank you, Mr. Bouie.
Although Biden isn't my first choice, I would vote for him with great enthusiasm as my party's nominee to defeat Trump. The problem is that the Democrats need to get out the vote, which entails firing up their core constituencies, women and minority voters, with some degree of enthusiasm. I don't think Biden is the candidate to do this, leading me, like Bouie, to wonder just how electable he really is.
5
The majority of Americans wanted change when they voted for Obama. A near-majority wanted change when they voted against Hillary and/or for Trump. And I'm guessing that a real majority still want change -- some more than ever. Because it’s not just our elected representatives who have let us down - it’s a system that, year after year, election after election, perpetuates its built-in prejudices against our interests. Joe Biden is the poster boy for that club. (Hillary was the poster girl.) Americans need to realize that presidential elections aren't about ideas or policies anymore. If they ever were. They're popularity contests whose main criterion for winning is charisma. Nominating Joe Biden in an environment like that would be sucidal.
4
The Dems needs to be really careful - If Progressives do not get a spot on the ticket and a deal for some police progress - they will form a new party.
I predict this is the last chance for Dems not to do the weak thing.
5
@EC
So sorry for the mistakes
see below
The Dems need to be really careful - If Progressives do not get a spot on the ticket and a deal for some policy progress - they will form a new party.
I predict this is the last chance for Dems not to do the weak thing.
4
You are quite right, Mr. Bouie. Biden may be looked upon favorably by some who voted for Trump, but if the economy is still growing (let's not look too closely at the massive deficit created by Trump's enormous tax breaks for the rich), then Biden will be passed over at the polls, despite however likeable he may be
2
Democrats are ignoring the obvious. Sanders has ignited this country with his ideas and views, many of which are being touted by other candidates as their own. Step aside, everyone. Sanders will take Trump down.
10
@RB
Ignited is a great choice of words. As in a fire that a lot of centrist voters will flee from. The voters that a candidate needs a big chunk of to win.
1
Once again another round in the chamber of the Democratic circular firing squad. Rather than drag down a potentially good candidate, whatever his shortcomings, why not talk about his positives? Please, don't do the work of the other side for them unless you want them to win, again.
5
@Ask Better Questions Bernie is leading the way in the circular firing squad --- already going very negative on Biden, hiring David Sirota to dig up trash on other candidates.
Democrats need to sell the pro Democrat message, not the anti-Trump message. Focusing too much on the latter cost them the White House in 2016. Hopefully they will not repeat that mistake.
3
What makes Biden electable in my opinion is his ability to get under Trump’s skin. Including a reference to Charlottesville in his launch video was a clever move, and it clearly irked the President.
Biden understands Trump’s pressure points better than any other candidate and he knows how to put him on the defensive.
Being able to curry favor with his base is an added bonus, and Trump knows it, which is why he threw a tantrum about the firefighters union.
Biden isn’t my favorite candidate, but he seems to be the most electable because he knows how to expose Trump as a fraud, which is what the Dem nominee will have to do.
8
Biden as Vice President failed to get Obama’s Supreme Court nominee to Senate hearings by enlisting his Republican friends. Biden failed to protect Anith Hill from abuse by his Republican friends. Biden voted for Iraq war with his Republican friends. Three strikes you are out. Biden is the least electable. The unsung hero in the crowd is Elizabeth Warren and will get the nomination. Remember, Sanders did not get even a hearing in the media until late. I hope press would give equal time to all candidates and let people choose instead of choosing for them.
11
My yet unsung hero in the crowd is Tulsi Gabbard, a woman, a veteran, young and progressive. Charisma to boost. From Hawai, which gave us a great President before.
4
Let's let the debates determine who is electable. I don't have a problem with Biden, he very well might be the right candidate. He could also prove to be disconnected from the current political climate. Seems to already be a whole lot of implicit bias against candidates based on their skin color and gender.
6
The problem is not Joe Biden. The problem is the democrats and the Democratic party. Hillary Clinton did not do that well even though she received 3 million more votes than Trump not so much because she lacked the support from the voters but because the democrats were still seething as Bernie Sanders did not win the nomination and his followers sat out the election. It may happen again as no matter who the nominee is, chances are that sour grapes may repeat the process. Each one of these contenders and we are waiting for a dog catcher to announce his or her candidacy wanting to be president thinks that he or she is the best alternative to Trump and if they don't get what they want, they will be non-participant. Democrats lack community spirit while for the republicans that is the most available weapon. Get off your high horse and work for the candidate who wins the nomination and chances are it may not be your candidate. And by the way why the socialist Sanders running for the democratic nomination when he is not even a registered democrat
5
From where does this oft repeated remark that Sanders voters sat out the election come? Was there exit polling to prove this?
I was a Sanders supporter, my friends were Sanders supporters and every one of us was highly educated among a crowd of newly minted voters who were educated. None of us ever would have sat out the election and allowed Trump to be elected. He is the enemy of the educated who require critical thinking and fair play. All the Sanders supporters I know recognized Mr. Trump as the enemy of the people and facts and a crass, greedy business man who would never uphold the Constitution.
We Sanders supporters sent a message that Secretary Clinton heard and accepted. The Democratic Party platform changed in 2016 because of us.
As an educated person, I know Senator Sanders is a social democrat similar to FDR and not a socialist who believes the government should control the means of production. Do you know the difference between the two labels? Probably not since Mr. Sanders does not.
I live and work a portion of the year in Scandinavia. Scandinavia has much higher wages and a capitalist economy with a social safety net. Norway, for example, does not bail out failed pet industries using government funds nor do they allow money in politics.
Enough of this United States exceptionalism propaganda. We should start importing the best ideas and stop exporting our worst impulses while retaining those characteristics that make us a truly great nation.
1
I am surprised. There is not a mention of millennials and how they factor into the Biden equation. You are chasing blue collars but as you say, they may no longer factor in. Far stronger and more energetic in the Democratic Party is the potential held by the millennial vote. How will Biden bring them in?
9
Consider the possibility that the Most Recommended comments against Biden may be so highly recommended because they are being recommended by Trump supporters (or business and foreign governments), who consider Biden the biggest threat to Trump's reelection.
The 2020 election will boil down to just several states in which the Democratic candidate will have to regain Obama/Trump voters. Biden appears to be the only candidate who has substantial credibility with those folks. And, just what might an other-than-Biden candidate say that would persuade an Obama/Trump voter to return to the Democratic fold? Thus, so far, unless you believe reelecting Trump is better than a Biden presidency, your objections to Biden, as legitimate as many are, merely provides support for four more years of Trumpian destruction of our country.
As well, one should consider where Biden's support comes from, as it (again, so far) defies the anyone-but-Biden received wisdom. Though it is obviously preliminary, Nate Silver's piece for FiveThirtyEight is instructive, including data indicating substantial non-white support for Biden over anyone else in the field.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
Of course it is possible another viable candidate might yet appear out of "nowhere", much as Bill Clinton did.
3
>>> "Consider the possibility that the Most Recommended comments against Biden may be so highly recommended because they are being recommended by Trump supporters (or business and foreign governments), who consider Biden the biggest threat to Trump's reelection."
"Paranoia strikes deep. Into your life it will creep."
1
I would say no on that, if Biden is the best candidate then we don't have much of a chance of winning. What do you all think about Bill Weld who is running against Trump in the republican primaries, he seems like a moderate democrat to me, just wonder what the bad side is (everyone has one) why shouldn't I vote for him? Take Trump out of the running before the election gets here...
4
Due to the electoral college, national polls don’t matter. It doesn’t matter what Dems in California, New York and Massachusetts think. It comes down to a handful of battleground states. Any discussion of electability that ignores this basic fact is pointless.
5
I continue to be confused by the large number of folks who keep telling us all how "terrible" a candidate that Hillary Clinton was.
Yeah, she was so terrible that she won the popular vote by over three million votes and, if not for a not-easily-repeated quirk in the Electoral College, would be President today.
5
@itsmecraig Well, actually, 2.8 million votes, but your pint still stands.
Which candidate is best positioned to win back Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania? That is where the 2020 election will be won or lost. We're not going to win Florida, Ohio, or North Carolina. Is any candidate more likely than Biden to win those states? I'd like to hear the argument.
5
@Joe Sweeney
I would like to hear the argument that assumes Biden can win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pa. Biden will never get the Trump voter that didn’t bother to vote in the last elections because McCain and Romney weren’t far right enough but Trump was there man. There is a reason Trump never falls much below 40%. These throwbacks exist, always have and there is just enough of them to swing the election in those three states. Not a forgone conclusion, but I don’t know why people think Biden is necessarily the answer.
2
There’s a sizable chunk of people who voted for Obama - twice - but flipped to Trump. It’s folly to just write them off.
@Veronica
....their man....
As our last credible president stated, Democrats need to ensure their presidential aspirants do not devolve into a circular firing squad. The Democrats, not just the contenders, but the Congressional members, are being spun in circles by Trump. Democrats appear totally impotent in their efforts to call Trump to task. He and his minions ignore subpoenas as if they are simply another nuisance, the legal equivalent of houseflies easily swatted away. Tax returns? Not gonna see em. Anything requested by Congress is denied in advance. Unless Democrats demonstrate they know how to fight the GOP instead of each other, Republicans win hands down. The scoreboard of public perception regarding areas other than diversity and being 'woke' is not going to be kind to Democrats unless something changes very soon.
3
Looking through these comments, no one seems to have mentioned the CNN poll from last week showing that Beto O'Rourke beats Donald Trump in a hypothetical matchup by a greater margin than any other candidate, including Biden and Sanders. He beat Trump by 10 points, as compared to Biden's and Sanders' 6 points. Now one poll is just one poll, but maybe we should be taking a closer look at Beto. He hasn't been treated well in the media lately, but he has a lot of positives. I don't accept that Biden is the most electable just because that is his campaign is saying so.
7
National polls are irrelevant due to the electoral college. Dems have to win battleground states mainly in the Midwest. It doesn’t matter how popular someone is in California or New York.
For me, Mr. Biden disqualified himself completely with his comments indicating that he does not think that China is a big problem. Before he said that I might have voted for him. Now, never. If he attempts to change his position on China, I will not trust the change. He is finished as far as I am concerned. If he is nominated I (a Democrat) will vote for Trump.
5
I understand that some folks are excited about the Democratic Party becoming more progressive, and that would be a good thing. Certainly, the Republican Party has damaged our country badly over the last decades when they were in power.
But Trump has so frightened people with his instability and narcissism, that I think we desperately need a period of healing before launching into much needed change.
I would like an old-fashioned President for at least one term that won't scare me, as I have been for the last two years. Someone who respects the office, and can help us regain a modicum of prestige in the world. That will be the individual I will vote for.
4
The future of the Democratic party is not a person. It is a generation. Millenials, please step up and vote, mobilize your generation to vote in numbers equal to or greater than Boomers and the country can change. Start NOW and you can shape the future. Your generation has the numbers to elect a progressive Democratic candidate, gain a Senate majority in 2020 and maybe a supermajority in 2022. These are the keys to lasting change. Engage starting now in the primaries and leave the past behind.
I'm tired of these discussions of "electability" that assume a static electorate. Statistical profiles of Millenials vs. their actual participation in elections show a vastly underutilized progressive base. Please, Democrats, respect their potential. Inspire THEM, don't look to the past.
13
@Yojimbo
Over half of Democratic voters are over 50. Millenials will not decide the nominee or the next president.
3
I love Joe but he represents the past not the present. The Democratic Party has come too far to just turn the clock back. Joe is not progressive enough. Americans are hungry for change. They want and deserve universal healthcare. They want and deserve excellent free education. They want and deserve that there be a redistribution of wealth in this country. They want and deserve a government that fights climate change, not wars. Joe just isn’t going to cut it.
7
Wait, I have an idea. Let's run a candidate whom the Dems love but who is not electable. How about a small town mayor from the mid west or a minority candidate who has NO experience. That will certainly get us past the Trump machine. We have 20 unelectable candidates, and those of us who are realistic, know that. Democrats have a long history of eating their own so why don't we run Biden and win for a change. Let's defeat Trump and in four years we can elect a candidate who really represents our values.
8
I wish the Democratic party would introduce ranked choice in the primaries so that we could sidestep electability and focus on what the candidates think they can achieve if elected.
14
Do you know who backs the Green New Deal, Universal Healthcare and polls well with blue collar workers?
Bernie Sanders, that’s who.
9
What is the point of the editorial? That Democrats should eschew a key voter segment in the search for ideological purity? Can the election be won with this approach, or do the Democratic nominees have to recapture parts of blue collar voters to win?
Hillary was a uniquely flawed candidate - she was popular as a Secretary of State, but that is different than being popular as a Presidential candidate. Her negatives were well deserved, and I doubt that any of the current spate of Democratic candidates will make her mistakes.
2
The handsome guy in the carefully filmed campaign roll out is 76. I keep wondering if he won't look like a frail and frazzled mess, a year from now, under the pressure of a noxious campaign.
Anyhow, the actual qualifications of Democratic candidates probably do not matter at all. What will matter is how well they survive being smeared, as each of them are guaranteed to be.
3
If we can step beyond the short term goal of defeating Trump, I’d love an honest discussion of the problems younger Americans are facing- how to grapple with technological change being at the top of the list. The leading democratic candidates can barely operate a television remote. We need young blood in the party and the presidency!
5
Biden would likely run stronger than Clinton - not hard to do - which might be enough. But I actually think his current lead is going to fade once the debates begin and he gets outshined by some of the younger, more capable candidates. Buttigieg, especially, I expect will be quite impressive during the debates. If Biden survives this process, then he has enough grit to defeat Trump.
5
Here they going again, trying to fix the primaries. I don’t believe it when they say that the ‘voters’ consider Biden the front runner.
Those numbers are fake and have nothing to do with reality.
4
Once again, Dems taking the same old knife to the same old gunfight and expecting a different outcome. If Biden is the best of the bunch, lord have mercy on us all a la McGovern or Muskie. Both decent people yet without the passion that must transcend them above us while demanding defiance of the established order in order to take its best and adapt it to the future.
If Democrats allow themselves to repeat snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, they've forfeited the boldness necessary to save what's left of our democracy.
We deserve more, we deserve better than that, don't we?
6
This is not to moment to decide who is most electable. It is the time to decide who would be the best president.
Once we figure that out, we figure out how to get that person elected.
Of course, the person has to have some campaigning skills and has to be not so damaged as to be vulnerable to being destroyed by a few Trump tweets.
I have been having my doubts about whether Biden would be the best president lately, but I remain open minded. And there is no doubt that Biden is a much better campaigner than Hillary Clinton was. Clinton faced gender disadvantages such as pundit speculation about her voice’s “shrillness.” But in 2016 what destroyed her (along with Comey and the Russians and Julian Assange) was her inability to explain, after many attempts, her reasons for using a private server. Her “deplorables” comment was another gift to Trump.
Biden puts his foot in his mouth, but not on that sort of self-annihilating nuclear level.
With a president who is increasingly acting like a tyrant (demanding two extra years on his first term), this is not the time to tear Joe Biden to shreds. Judge him on his merits and compare those merits point by point with the merits of the other candidates. Whoever seems most ready to take on Trump tyranny and GOP hypocrisy at home and a complicated economic and geopolitical situation abroad should be the nominee.
4
@Mike Collins
Hear what they all have to say and then pick someone who will not insult working people and ignore the rust belt.
Any hopes of Dems winning rest on policy, having a strong platform and ignoring trump. Push the program and make sure it is strong and relevant to the voters.
Do not rise to his lies and taunts -- resist leaping to the bait--that only gives him the attention and focus to carry on.
7
If you are really, as a voter, trying to pick a CEO of a large enterprise (ie. elect a President to run the government ) would you hire any of the 22 or so job seekers (primary candidates) in the Democrat race as is at the present? It is hard to imagine any of them (with the possible exception of Booker) rallying the country to oppose a foreign incursion. Biden has become a septuagenarian shadow of his prior self (which was not much) who can barely string two sentences together without difficulty. To claim to represent "Blue Collar" America is really a stretch. He left Scranton when he was 10, represents Delaware )which has only one Representative), had five deferments from the draft, is a plagiarizer. has never had a real job and has made his son a millionaire through his political contacts with China and the Ukraine. Don't insult "Blue Collar America." If the Democrats want to replace Trump they better find a real candidate. Whatever happened to Admiral McRaven?
5
Biden's appeal is timeless. He has great teeth and a lot more hair than he used to.
7
A "do-over" might be just what the public wants, not more radical change. By running against Trump as a uniquely poor president, Biden might have the key to the electorate's historic preference for benign results that don't require us to take actual personal responsibility for the state of the country. We can blame Trump and get rid of him. The true believers in big policy always overestimate the public's appetite for disruption and unintended consequences. We need good people in office precisely because all the good answers to our problems are painful, not obvious.
1
If democrats(over 50)) honestly think that Biden is the best choice then they have clearly NOT learned from history and it is not only Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016. Prior to the 2018 mid-terms, for the previous 6 years corporate/establishment democrats lost almost 1000 seats at the state and federal levels, Republicans took control of two-thirds of the states houses and ALL THREE branches of the executive and it happened because "Republican Lite" democrats prefer collecting money over actually winning elections and that is sill the case today and alienating millions of former democrat voters who felt left behind stayed home in 2016 handing the Presidency to the candidate with the "worst" approval ratings in history.
If democrats have any chance at all in 2020 it will mean galvanizing a voter base of all ages by having a candidate that will excite the electorate and get out the vote. A Joe Biden corporate/establishment candidacy who thinks Dick Cheney is a "nice guy" and honestly believes he can STILL get along with a party that is no more than an appendage of Trump would be a disaster.
If Biden honestly thinks he has friends in the "Trumpublican" party and can act in a bipartisan way with this nefarious group, what happened when he was VP during the Obama administration when the Republicans stymied Obama every step of the way? It seems his so-called friends left him then and they will do it again.
If democrats think Biden is the best choice, "insanity be thy name"
11
I was really hoping that the corporate establishment democrats in the DNC/DCCC would have learned their lesson from 2016. Running another uninspiring centrist in the false hope of winning a few disaffected republicans while thumbing their noses at the massive base of progressives is what lost them the last election. It seems pretty obvious to me that the party bigwigs would rather take a chance on losing to Trump than to risk winning the presidency with a progressive candidate who will reform the corrupt system that has made them rich and powerful.
7
Hear. Hear.
Joe is one long platitude spewing Corporate Democrat that will do less for the middle class than Obama.
Eight more years of middle class sliding into despair and poverty.
11
It is important to appeal to blue collar workers of our country in a way that Hilary could not. Going too far to the left will only alienate the vast middle America.
It is important to scorch earth a president who is egotistical, morally corrupt, divisive, caught in many lies, aligns himself with Vladimir Putin. He is unwilling to divulge his taxes, treating minorities with disrespect and as well as his own cabinet members. He is antagonistic to our FBI, judiciary department and perverts the principles of free speech and dissent.
The Democratic nominee needs to create a program that creates viable sustainable employment in the depressed areas of our small cities by giving long term(10 years of tax breaks) to high tech businesses willing to train and use American labor.
"Is Biden Really the Most ‘Electable’ Democrat?" Using the same definition of "electable" as applied to Clinton II, yes. Biden is just about as exciting as Clinton II's running mate... what's his name?, yeah, that one.
6
Much too early to predict. The debates will give a couple of the sleeper candidates a star turn, while eliminating others.
9
Are you forgetting about "Russian Interference" in the 2016 election? Hillary may well have won were it not for the lies they sowed about her online in an attempt to have their puppet in the Whitehouse. And, it worked! Perhaps this time just enough people will be savvy about this-- and many more will turn out to vote-- because the election of Trump will not be a ridiculous option but a true reality. Many stayed home in 2016 (in part because of the information and lies against Hillary online) who will turn out in 2020, just to vote against Him.
1
Right, let’s go back to those glorious days of endless wars, mass incarceration and corporatism.
4
You mean the present, right?
This article is way too timid. It bends over backwards to try to make Joe BIden's capaign seem like a good idea.
In fact, Joe running for the third time for President after losing twice is a terrible idea. He's a loser with no current appeal.
Trying to push him as the most "electable" is exactly what was done with Secretary Hillary Clinton. It's time for a new generation of leaders rather than going back to the same old goats who got us into the Trunp Era.
Democrats need an entirely new generation of leadership. It's bad enough that the House and Senate are larded with elderly if not senile Democrats. Tine to put sone vigorous, smart, moreo pressive young candidates out with greater diversity. Joe is the least likely of the 20 people running in the Demoratic Primary to be elected President if Joe can even win the nomination. I hope that he does not.
I think the notion that Joe is the nost electable must be planted by Russian Intelligence to make it easier for Donald Trump to be re-elected. There is one Democrat whom I dislike almost as much as Trump and even older tha Trump - Joe Biden. Biden is a loser in every way I can think of.
8
In a word, no...
None of the current pack are - not even close...
PS
For Sanders, you'd also have to put "Democrat" in quotes, a la you've done for "electable"...
1
Amy Klobuchar or Kamela Harris. Problem solved.
2
I love Joe but his comment: "“This,” Biden says referring to Trump, “is not the Republican Party” makes him in my mind unfit to lead the Democrats and the nation. The Republican party is trump. He is their Rosemary's baby.
6
In a word, yes he is. In order to win, a democrat is going to have to overcome what is really important good news...that the economy is very strong and the labor market is very strong. There is no democratic economic message that can win over moderates and others who voted for the idiot in the WH..But there is a massive opening for a more moderate dem with character and poise...and that is Biden. I'm a moderate who didn't vote for DT nor did I vote for HRC last time. I thought both stunk. I will never vote for DT, but if Biden gets the nod, he gets my vote. I don't agree with him on many things, but I think it important that we change the nature of the dialogue in this country. For me, if any of the many radical dems running get the nod, no way I'd vote for them...I'd just sit this one out. The problem is most that are running are radical enough that some would be rightfully afraid to vote for them, which could hand the election to DT. I'd rather see Biden get the nod and beat DT than see the dems stand for radical policy purity...and lose.
4
Pete Buttigieg is the candidate to watch.
7
Is there some memo that reads: "Every columnist must contribute at least two Biden pieces each month? If not- it sure appears to be. "Not Electable-and why"? "Most Electable-and why." "What Biden does/does not get...."
Why are opinionaters and pundits obsessed? Does that old fashioned attribute; Substance- have any place in the conversation? Is it just a horse race about style? Is Biden going to be the NYT's 2020 "Hillary"? Really. Inquiring minds demand to know.
5
It looks as though Jack Burkman will have to shift his focus away from Buttigieg and start concocting a phony rap sheet for Biden now..
Jeez, I know this is "opinion" and therefore writers are given free rein without editorial interference, but...this is the FOURTH anti-Biden piece Boule has published since February 7th! Can't any editor see this guy has an axe to grind. And this section is for honest opinion, not political axe-grinding!
2
The author will attack any candidate that doesn't favor the elimination of the electoral college, the packing the Supreme Court, Reparations, Statehood for Puerto Rico and DC, free college and health care,and giving all prisoners the right to vote....This type of journalism is what led to Trump's 2016 victory.
With Biden’s stupid announcement about China not being a competitor I’ve completely lost faith in him being electable. I wonder what planet he is living on...
7
@Charlie China invested heavily in his son’s hedge fund so what do you think he is going to say?
The fact that Joe Biden can generate "enthusiasm" in significant sectors of the Democrat Party is encouraging. Perhaps you are not the party of the push-the-envelope, looney fringe that Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and the New York Times make you out to be.
1
Go away Joe.
3
Same old Demo problem could well happen... Select a lousy candidate, run a lousy campaign, get beat up by the Repubs., and then Demos fight amongst themselves and a large number refuse to vote for the Demo. candidate. The country cannot afford that scenario, too much at stake. The real question seems to be whether the Demos can change... I just don't see Biden, or Bernie as a change agent...
42
@r henshaw
Well put. Just heard Bernie's "plea" to have the "Boston bomber" given a vote in 2020.
That one will/would re-elect Donald!
It's as simple as that. Hillary had a tin ear. One has to finally forget the mail server. I work in tech, so I know how people's eyes glaze over - EVEN NOW, even young people - but her speaking at Goldman and responding to questions of her fees (the questioners were CLEARLY asking what they got for a million bucks) with "They offered a certain fee, so I took it" was NOT the act of an intelligent politician, someone truly "worthy" of the Presidency. (NOT everybody looks at 2 awful choices and follows up with "Well, who is LESS awful."
With Bernie or Biden, one does NOT have awful choices. Well, Biden, too, has a tin ear, and it's not clear that he wouldn't be a "W" to who knows what Cheney. (He really is a mental cipher, one who began focusing on the main chance 40 years ago and hasn't stopped for a minute since.)
Call it dumb luck, but Donald DOES have a darn good economy. (And it's not just stock market indices.)
It's going to take DISCIPLINE and unity to win in 2020. Bernie is as undisciplined (maybe, "out of touch" may be more accurate) as a man can be, and the likelihood that Biden can UNIFY anything larger than the Chamber of Commerce in Delaware strikes me as awfully darn low.
He presided over the Anita Hill hearings, remember!
Apple once had "Next Gen!" The Dems need that now - even more than Apple needed to reinvent itself.
3
@r henshaw If Democrats nominate a progressive candidate then all is lost. This is political suicide. There's no progressive majority in America & never will be. The numbers are simply not there. And there certainly is no progressive Electoral College coalition in America that could get to the needed 270 votes. This point can't be emphasized enough: almost every progressive candidate in whom Democrats invested tremendous time, money, & emotional energy in 2016— lost. Almost every progressive initiative on the ballot in this country was voted down. What progressives & their co-dependents will never understand is that far left mobilizes it's opponents to an even greater degree. Anti-left” will always beat “anti-Trump” in most places in this country but especially in swing states like Ohio & Florida. Many pundits misread the midterms claiming the Dems center of gravity had shifted. The numbers show more moderate Dems winning was why we retook the House. To many independent swing voters Progressivism means trigger warnings, vile college protests & obnoxious academics who posture as their will on earth. They hate these people to their very core. Why shouldn't they? The far left has been mocking them for decades. You're bad for eating factory-farmed meat, owning a rifle, & driving an SUV. You're bad for speaking the language of micro-aggressions, patriarchy & cultural appropriation. There's no way to bridge this gap. Our best chance for a 2020 victory is to run a moderate.
2
@r henshaw You say that as if its a bad thing. What you described is exactly how things should be if not for the lack of morality of the conservative party.
The fact the current democrats struggle with every candidate means they are not hacks. They have a mind of their own and are unwilling to compromise morals for the party line. Which is exactly why they are better at leading.
Frankly I would not vote for Biden. I am not a Democrat and never will be, but I do lean left. Its time to put the old generations out to pasture. They had their chance and did a poor job. Their gen was fed with a silver spoon and are too far disconnected from reality. Move it to gen x and later candidates and preferably those with a STEM background. We are not in the dark ages any more, time to pick real critical thinkers not just popularity contest contestants.
6
Biden has never done well in a primary.
He's likely to play as even more of a snooze fest than he has in his previous primary attempts when side by side with the rest of the pack. With more swing voters than ever, I think the Dems need more crossover appeal. I think the obvious answer is Pete Buttigieg. The problem now is that he's being shilled against by
the establishment pundits on the far left and center left.
Not being mentioned by name on purpose when 6 or 7 of the names in the field are spoken of, most of whom he's polling higher than, despite less name recognition.
3
Tulsi Gabbard is by far the most electable Democrat. She was even endorsed by Ron Paul, the father of the GOP libertarian and anti war, anti neocon movement. Gabbard would take votes across the board from liberals, moderates and conservatives. Everyone else loses to Trump. That isn’t a bad thing when you compare him with Harris, Booker, Warren, or Clinton. But, that is a wasted four years when you imagine where we would be with a leader like Tulsi Gabbard.
1
I’m with Tulsi.
Electability? This article misses the critical issue of Biden's candidacy: Do we really want a president who would be 78 years old upon his inauguration, and 82 at the end of his term? Same issue for Bernie.
What the article also fails to note is that with the current mob of Democratic hopefuls, most of which have no presidential gravitas, 2020 is looking more like deja vu 72 when you know who won.
1
My conservative friends are already circulating an admittedly disturbing video of clips of Biden sniffing and touching young girls in a way that's quite disturbing. The girls are all visibly uncomfortable. If he's the nominee, Trump will put that on a loop in all his ads. Biden is not the best or automatic choice.
196
@Anne: Do not underestimate Biden and his support from the liberal media which has a tremendous impact, since almost everyone now gets his news and views from t.v., cable stations in particular.All journos or almost are resolutely anti TRUMP.Voting is an emotional decision, just like playing the market.Right now the momentum is with Biden, and do not underestimate the anti Trump hatred, exemplified by the majority of published comments in the Comments section. Trump could discover a cure for cancer and folks would still be against him.
3
I doubt Americans will care. After all, Trump was elected after that Holly wood video, where he bragged about touching women intimately.
20
@Anne
Of all the videos that could hurt Biden, these certainly would backfire on Trump. Jeepers. Give the born hugger a break. Next thing trees will be shedding their leaves in outrage.
5
The Biden obsession just shows how beaten down and unimaginative moderate Democrats are. Their only objective is to put someone with a D in front of the name in the White House. Seriously, ask any Biden supporter why they like him- the first thing out of their mouth will be "because he can beat Trump". That's not enough for most voters- winning the White House is only the beginning of another 4 year long battle.
It really boils down to the fact that a lot of deluded Democrats want to believe that everything was OK until Trump happened, and once he is gone then everyone will get along again. It is a fantasy. Trump won in a field of 17 candidates, if the GOP voters didn't want him they would have picked literally anyone else. He won because they liked his policies and his rhetoric, and they will continue to like it even if he loses.
238
@Greg -- No, they would have picked anyone else but Hillary. And, no, democrats didn't think everything was OK. They thought that identity politics was a winning strategy and excluding a very large demographic wouldn't hurt them. That's where they were wrong, and many are still wrong in believing that.
19
@Greg - With time on my hands in 2016, I studied the election dynamics like a PhD student. It was clear to me that the forces that were bringing such phenomena as Brexit, The Yellow Vests, and right (or left, in a few cases) leaders to countries in Europe were the same forces that would bring an outsider to victory here - either Trump or Sanders would win. Those same forces - extremely high income inequality. off-shored jobs, stagnant wages - are still here today in this neo-liberal, global economy -despite what appears as a booming economy. The booming part is going to the few; the many are struggling. So I see candidates who are not taking the corporate dollar and proposing ways to address the inequality as having the best chance in 2020.
35
@Greg
Relax. All Biden did was announce his candidacy.
And the deluded *country* that voted for Obama twice, by large majorities each time, was happy about something. That wouldn't have happened if they didn't approve of his job.
Meanwhile, Trump won by the most negative "majority" in history of the country. His 3 million vote deficit needs to be improved upon to win a 2nd term. He's doing nothing to get us "deluded" folks to vote for him.
If Trump loses, his policies will go the way of the dodo bird on the ash heap of history.
5
Some cable host bid their listeners to imagine how various contenders would look standing next to Trump during leadup to the election. When I imagined Biden, I saw two men over 75 years old and with that I saw a moribund country. Age is a relevant factor. I pray the Dems nominate someone young and enthusiastic, next to whom Trump will seem doddering.
6
@AZDemocrat
Agree. Dems historically win with young candidates, witness Kennedy, Bill Clinton, and Obama. Gore also, if the Supreme Court had not intervened.
Voters need a choice between what they know, and someone they see as a fresh path.
3
Thanks for a well-considered and reasoned opinion piece. I like Joe, but I think he has vulnerabilities. Let's not anoint him just yet. If he makes it through to the nomination, I'm all for him. But in the meantime, I'm interested in hearing from about a half dozen of the other candidates.
I've been a Biden fan for years, but his time has long passed. He doesn't support Medicare for All, he thinks marijuana is a gateway drug, and, in this plethora of diverse candidates, he's an old white male. I will vote for whoever the Democratic candidate is no matter what, but my hope is that it is Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.
1
@Cathi M
Ask a 12-step meeting if grass is a gateway drug, and many will say absolutely.
Ask the 50 million with health insurance from work, and most will say they would like to keep it.
If old white male is a disqualification, then we are ageist, racist, and sexist.
1
The other day the NYTimes asked readers to give words of wisdom and advice to young people about to graduate college. Here are my words of wisdom and advice to the NYTimes. Stop pretending that we older people have any idea what young people are facing. We did not face monumental, lifelong student debt when we graduated. We were not contemplating the fact that our planet might not be able to sustain human life. We were not rejecting the idea of ever having children or owning a home. The poll that shows Biden as the frontrunner did not have enough answers from anyone under the age of 49. Young people are not crying out for decency and civility; they are not enthusiastic about an aged corporate Democrat. The world we have left them is unsustainable. The NYTimes is pushing the inevitability of Biden just as they pushed the inevitability of Hillary. The only inevitability is that our planet is going to die unless we make immediate, radical changes. Why would our kids want another Republican-lite president when their future hangs in the balance? Why, more importantly, would we settle for so little change when we have already so utterly failed our children and grandchildren?
20
@susan smith
I agree with you in large part. However, I think creating generational differences is ill-advised -- just unnecessarily divisive. As a 60-something, I am facing the same decline of the planet as younger generations, but am facing it with ill health and other diminished resources. We are still alive, so please don't dismiss the challenges of seniors as if we are already dead, as do so many who write opinion pieces and comments. (We are not all Trump supporters). Perhaps your economic status allows you to dismiss the challenges of many seniors. We too have been hurt by the predations of Wall Street and its political supporters and beneficiaries. We too suffer from climate change (the elderly and ill, along with the poor, are the first ones to succumb - remember Katrina). I don't want Biden, either, and I didn't like him any better in my youth. I want a better candidate for our kids, but also for myself and my fellow boomers. United we win.
7
@meI hope that's a joke. I'm a senior. I hope the nominee is Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. I'm in no way trying to be divisive. I'm trying to get all of us to unite behind the reality that incrementalism is not gonna save our kids. When I say that my generation has failed our grandchildren, I'm saying that it is time for us to rise to the occasion, to recognize that we have to put their needs before our own. Of course, climate change will affect all of us. Of course, it killed seniors in New Orleans. But 18-year-olds have every reason to fear that they will never be senior citizens themselves. I'm trying to get all fair-minded voters to see that we are facing a catastrophe even bigger than Trump. It's not enough to boot Trump out of office. We have to recognize that the economy and environment under which many of us lived prosperous lives is no longer guaranteed to our kids. Biden has had his time. Does he have a vision for the future? I'm barely getting by right now, and my own economic future is absolutely terrifying, but please don't slam me for being even more terrified for my kids' future.
4
@susan smith I really don’t understand the American obsession with “generations” (I am an immigrant) but as somebody on the cusp of your magic age of 49, I can tell that just about everything is your post is wrong. If Bernie’s policies are implemented, they’ll hit the young people hardest (France has the youth unemployment rate of 20 percent). While climate change is real, our planet is not dying, though a lot of people will. However, those will be people in the countries that the poorly educated American millennials cannot find on the map, such as Bangladesh. In any case, if millennials really want to reverse climate change, they should go into STEM and develop new technologies, instead of voting for demagogues. Abstaining from having kids is definitely a good idea in this context. And finally, maybe you failed your kids but I don’t think I failed mine. They are well educated and ready to face tomorrow’s challenges. I know a lot of young people all over the world and nowhere do I find the-same whining self-pity as among American millennials. I always found this perplexing but perhaps with parents like you, it is understandable.
2
Most of the Democratic contenders are electable enough. And certainly more qualified than Trump, in so many ways.
I'm not worried about the candidates. I'm worried about the voters. In 2016, millions of voters were duped by a Russian propaganda campaign designed to weaken our country by putting an easily-manipulated patsy in the White House.
Will these voters be any smarter this time around? I don't know.
2
@DS
And will we have a candidate who does not insult working people and ignore the rust belt?
Joe would certainly not be my first choice among the Democratic presidential candidates; he certainly has a number of admitted weaknesses to go along with this admitted strengths, all of which have been enumerated many times.
Nevertheless, if Joe manages to come out of a spirited primary contest with clear majority of support and wins the nomination, I will certainly vote for him in the 2020 election, whatever reservations I have. (If this occurs the pick for VP should be someone who balances the ticket ethnoculturally and ideologically.)
Of course, that also goes for anyone else from the party who might manage to make it to the top of the heap, because whatever reservations I have about any of them, there's not a one of them that wouldn't be a better choice to occupy the Oval Office than the current squatter. NOT. A. ONE.
And Democrats better remember turnout is the name of the game. Hillary lost in great part because she couldn't get African American males to the polls in MI, PA, NC, WI, FL in the numbers Barack did (all due respect voter suppression tactics; there's STILL too much tribalism influencing turnout, which is why the ticket needs to be balanced). So now is the time for the phone banks and text chains and carpools to be set up, and lawyers hired to challenge 2020's suppression, which you know is coming.
Get young people, women, and African Americans jazzed to go vote, and Democrats win. So we should all commit to that--and commit to vote.
5
We need leaders to represent the interests of America going forward. Clinging on to the past is a great way to nurture a dystopia.
5
Let's face it, it's either Bernie or Biden - and another think you can be sure of is that establishment Democrats like Pelosi, Schumer, Hoyer etc. would rather lose to Trump than win with Sanders.
And lose to Trump is exactly what Biden is most likely to do. I've watched the Youtubes of his "rallies" - they take place in small school gyms and halls full of elderly people, with no enthusiasm whatsoever.
8
My guess is that Republicans are pushing Biden’s ratings. Biden would split the Democratic vote and Trump would win.
5
There are six states that flipped in 2016. Hillary Clinton was the most experienced, most intelligent, most qualified and unfortunately, most unappealing candidate in recent Democratic history (even Kerry and Dukakis would have beaten Trump). Biden will appeal to the 2016 non-base Trump voters in those states. It is that simple. The issues, the positions, the past does not matter. Trump proved that. The election will turn on how people feel about the two people running in the six flipped states. That is it. Nothing else matters. No other states matter because those states are already decided. The details of a candidate's positions don't matter other than if they brand the him or her an ultra left liberal. Those positions are losers in the flipped states.
If the Party nominates anyone other than a centrist like Biden those flipped states will stay flipped and it could be a long before the Democrats get them back.
2
Voters prefer Biden over Trump by 51 percent to 45 percent, huh? Amazing. Six whole points.
Look at the state of your country. Things aren't going to be getting better any time soon.
3
Joe Biden May be a likable folksy guy. He is also an OLD guy who has a serious Anita Hill generation problem. His disgraceful treatment of her was most unlikable and, worse, unforgettable.
And, he would obviously be a lame duck president at his age. 78 might be the new 68, but 82 to 86 is get-your-affairs-order old.
There are plenty of young candidates who are virtuous, likable, bright and full of necessary ideas for dealing with today and tomorrow.
Sure, excising Trump from the office he defiles is job one, but yearning for a savior from decades past isn’t enough.
7
Electability is an imaginary concept that makes no sense. No one can predict who will win. Here's a crazy idea - if you like a candidate, vote for that person. Maybe everyone else is in the same boat. *That's* electability.
6
In 2016 I talked with a smart, black college student in Manchester, NH. In an interesting conversation she paused and said about Hillary Clinton “Democrats have taken black voters for granted and assume we will vote for ANY Democrat they nominate. I’m not just voting for Hillary because she expects me to.”
Don’t know the students name if I did I’d text her “How’d that turn out for you?”
It was to be either Hillary or Donald. Fantasies about “the perfect” candidate or nothing cost many Democrats the most painful election in at least 112 years.
9
That is what you get as an end result of identity politics practised to the max, what you get from divisions, tribalism and virtue signalling to every individual group, instead of looking for universal values, ideas and goals that could unite people rather than enlarging this deep chasm of despair and hopelessness which has taken hold.
2
Biden is not the best candidate. He is an old school moderate who often speaks before he thinks. He can not seem to muster a simple apologize when called out and he has been on the wrong side of women's self determination for much of his career.
I have not forgotten his defense of those despicable questions and statements to Anita Hill as valid lines of questioning.
His jokes about his inability to keep his hands and nose away from women and children, no matter what generation he comes from, is so disrespectful and belittling. I know plenty of touchy, feely, men of his generation who not only learned to stop doing it, but recognized that women do not want to be treated like his cute little grandchildren, and that women and children are entitled to personal space and have the innate right not to touched without permission.
I appreciate every way in which he has served our country, and I thought he was a good Vice President for Obama, due to his experience at the time. If he wins the nomination I will support him as he is light years ahead of who is in office right now. I just think there are at least 3 other nominees who are more suited to this time and place in history and who are promoting more policy and progression.
8
“I believe history will look back on four years of this president and all he embraces as an aberrant moment in time,” said Biden.
Let me disagree, by suggesting that Trump is creating a new wave
of democratic resistance. Before, Trump, democracy stagnated.
People were losing interest, not voting, and getting bored...
So, I think if Biden or any other Democrat wants to win, they should try to inspire a new democratic era in 2020.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
I suggest using the "Democracy" song of Leonard Cohen to start.
Cohen sang, "Democracy is coming to the USA" (from 1992)
I think Democrats are losing a sense of history and purpose.
Trump dominates, because he captures the daily news cycle.
Wake up, Democrats. Stay interesting!
"Democracy is coming to the USA"
------------------------------------------
2
Why does Mr. Bouie insist on reciting the trope that Hillary Clinton was the most unpopular candidate in human history when, in fact, she won the popular vote by 3 million?
12
@David Cohen
David look at who she ran against
The most electable Democrat and shoo-in against the current occupant of the White House is George Clooney who isn't running.....yet. This field of Democrats is the dream team for cabinet.
1
Don’t know about George Clooney, but I agree with you regarding the Cabinet picks.
Kamala Harris for AG
Corey Booker for HUD
Elizabeth Warren for Labor
Amy Klobuchar for Secretary of State
Pete Buttigieg for Education
Julian Castro for Transportation
Kirsten Gillibrand for Commerce
Not sure about Defense, Agriculture or Energy, but I’m sure someone else will pop up.
Like anyone here wouldn't vote for Biden if he wins the nomination...
7
Trump didn't win - Hillary lost in 2016 & Hillary did it all on her own.
Many were bothered by Hillary's use of non-secure phones & her private email server that put national security at risk but she totally dismissed those concerns because she is Hillary
Many were concerned about the many $250K speeches to firms that wanted a friend in the White House but Bill & Hillary want to live the lifestyle of the rich & famous & the voters never got to read the transcripts of those most wonderful speeches
There were also those who questioned how good a candidate Hillary could be because Hillary found it necessary to rig the primaries in her favor
The foreign money going into the Clinton Foundation also didn't look good but it did keep in place a good number of persons who could jump into Hillary's campaign
Hillary also seemed to believe that it was more important to be seen sipping wine with Hollywood celebrities than campaigning in the Rust Belt; now she can do it as much as she likes
Most importantly the polls showed that this country didn't want another Clinton or Bush & Hillary was forced upon us. But for Hillary, Elizabeth Warren would have run in 2016 as she is doing now
But I'd be very happy to have Biden as a candidate because he is for the 90% & the 90% know it & will support Biden. Just like LBJ could not come out for Civil Rights until LBJ was president & then did a great deal, Biden was constrained by Delaware politics & so couldn't be a saint & be elected
1
I think Hilary Clinton made two fatal errors in 2016: (1) not wooing working-class white in the Rust Belt and (2) not choosing a running mate who would fire up African-Americans in the South. In 2016, I stood in line to vote beside an African-American woman who had not yet decided who she was going to vote for. It was at that point, which was early in the day, that I knew Trump could win. If Democrats can't convince African-American women in Alabama to vote for them, they're truly doomed.
Looking at the current slate of Democratic candidates, I see a number of pairings that could work. If Biden is top of the ticket, he should run with an African-American woman. Biden and Kamala Harris would be a formidable pairing. Biden and Stacey Abrams would as well. (I wonder if that's why Abrams is not running for Senate?)
The Trump machine is going to attempt to destroy anyone who runs against them; I'm not sure Biden is in any worse shape that anybody else in that regard. If there's no actual dirt on a candidate, Trump will just make some up. Can you even imagine what he'll have to say about Mayor Pete? (cringe)
3
@Rupert - Her biggest fatal error was her "deplorable" comment. If you want to win people over, even deplorable people, it is a bad idea to call them deplorable.
Hardcore Establishment Democrats are suckers for the inevitability (aka electability) argument, as they were in 2016, since it would protect the corporatist, business-as-usual status quo while paying nothing more than lip service to improving the lives of hardworking people at the grass roots.
What remains baffling is that Mr. Biden has been prominent on the Washington scene for 46 years, nearly half a century, yet feigns helplessness about why his brand of political leadership didn't make things better amid ample evidence that, in numerous cases, what he did has actually made things worse.
"Just give me another four years, folks, and I'll get the hang of it" seems to be his message as if, now that he's a late-stage septuagenarian, he has finally seen the light. No thank you.
5
Biden is un-electable. Progressives are sick of the Neoliberal wars, lies, and corporate toadying:
1991 Attacked Anita Hill. (So we got Clarence Thomas.)
1994 Wrote the disastrous Crime Bill. (Hello prison industrial complex.)
1995 Wrote the Omnibus Counter-terrorism Act (became Patriot Act).
1996 Voted Against Gay Marriage. (Real leadership there.)
1999 Repealed Glass Steagall. (World financial crisis.)
2001 Voted for the Patriot Act. (Big Brother is watching you.)
2002 Voted for Iraq War. (Yeah but it's ok, cuz his son served.)
2005 Voted to end bankruptcy protection for students. (Endless debt builds character.)
2018 Presents GW Bush with Liberty Medal. (Finally gets the big stuff right.)
6
It doesn't matter who the Dems pick. He/she will lose. '20 will be the most contentious, violent, bloody, and deadly election cycle ever. Trump will employ every tactic, legal and illegal, to maintain power, power that he will NEVER cede in a peaceful handover to a Dem. There will nothing 'normal' about '20.
9
So maybe people, regardless of political affiliation should get together and work hard to prevent that from happening. Wringing your hands about what might happen while screaming that the sky is falling doesn't really help, does it?
2
"Electability" is a bogus issue but not for the reason Mr. Bouie talks about.
Only Democrats have to worry about "electability" because people that typically lean Democrat haven't figured out the one thing followers of the Vichy GOP instinctively understand.
US Elections are binary choices and you are voting for the PARTY, not the PERSON. If you didn't vote for the Democrat - even if you didn't vote - you voted for the Vichy GOP.
It is why evangelists voted for a non-Christ like twice divorced philanderer. It is why free trade Vichy GOP voted for a protectionist.
The Reality Show Con Artist was not the first choice of many Vichy GOP but after he won the nomination, they didn't worry about his "electability", They VOTED for him because you have to be in power in order to govern.
Democrats and progressives have to be "motivated" to vote. If they aren't happy with the candidate, they may "hold their nose" or "sit it out" or register a "protest vote".
When they do vote, they only vote in Presidential elections and sit out the "boring" state ones that help the Vichy GOP gain power and further suppress the vote.
Till Democrats and progressives wake up to the fact that you vote for the Democrat in every election every year, their planet will be plundered, their abortion rights restricted and their freedom of speech will be curtailed.
And frankly, they will deserve it.
4
My money is on dark horse pragmatist Hickenlooper.
There is no electable democrat. They're too busy pretending to dislike trump while carpping on each other's heads.
Wrong. They are all electable, but unfortunately we have to choose one.
Whether D or R, the Davos crowd ain't gonna go quietly.
Is Biden really the most electable Democrat? Yes.
1
Biden’s poll numbers disrupts the narrative of Justice Dems and pundits. Thus the spinning.
1
Biden looks really thin. Do you think he is healthy? (Seriously.)
1
Making Sharpton look good is hard to do.
1
I find it hard to believe any predictions after the 2016 election. Clinton, though basically a Republican, was the obvious choice when compared to the psychopathic thug Trump. While the elite Electoral College obviously gave him the win, the fact that 62 million of my fellow citizens voted for him was eye-opening. I knew that there are plenty of vicious bullies out there, but 62 million thug-voters...wow. This time I am hoping that progressives vote in mass numbers and a Sanders-Warren Administration is ushered in.
@Eugene Debs, unfortunately, a lot of those Trump voters were Hillary-haters, not thig-voters. They didn’t vote for Trump, they voted against Hillary. I never realized just how very polarizing she was until the 2016 election. Sad.
1
Actually, no. People are sick and tired of the old politics and politicians. That is why they elected, albeit making a huge mistake, Donald Trump. Biden in 2020 for the Democrats is what Jeb Bush was in 2016 for the Republicans.
6
Another attempt by a presumably anti-SCUMp opinionator to undercut the one candidate who can beat him. Democrats and "Progressives" excel at "Russian Roulette".
1
Sorry, but yes he is.
1
I had not seen this before, but thank you for the label “faux-populist.”
It should be used regularly by honest journalists.
1
Yes he is. We need to end this nonsense now before it costs us the election. Make it Biden-Warren. Biden-Beto. Biden-Booker.
`"Beating Trump". Bingo ! With Biden's
sensibilities of moderation and inclusiveness -- not pandering by playing identity politics which is simply divisive and the roadmap to failure in 2020.
Do you really want Donald Trump to secure his drive to achieve a kleptocratic fascist state by 2024 ?
1
The most mature, responsible and reliable. An adult. We have a screaming 5-year old in perpetual tantrum at the helm and the republic is rapidly sinking under his incompetence, stupidity and selfishness. We don’t need massive schemes to reconstruct society, we need a competent adult, flaws, scars, and all, to guide us into safe harbor and give us all a chance catch our breath.
1
Biden is too old and too out of touch with young democrats (the only ones you can trust). His hubris disgusts me.
9
Biden has a special status among the candidates because he was vice president. Mondale was the nominee after Carter and Gore was the nominee after Bill Clinton. So it is Biden's turn? Neither Mondale nor Gore were close to their late 70s when nominated so this is new ground with regard to the age issue. And the resurgence of the progressive wing may come into play. Many progressives feel that Sanders was treated unfairly by the DNC in the last presidential primary and the Bernie bros may have their sights set on Biden this time around. In 2016 they took over the internet with harsh attacks against Clinton supporters so Biden supporters should be prepared for the worst. One thing for sure is this primary for Democrats is not going to be a lovefest.
So Biden has baggage? What else is new? Is there a Democratic candidate who doesn't have the baggage that Biden has?
My guess is there are a lot more 2016 Trump voters who will vote Democratic than there are 2016 Hillary voters who will vote for Trump. The trick for Democrats is to concentrate on the kitchen table issues which will excite the general electorate, health care, the minimum wage, student debt, polluted air and water, and not talk about how bad Trump is
4
@Bob
I’m with Elizabeth! How can Dems be so blind? Even Republicans are impressed with her knowledge and understanding of the issues we face. She’’s the gal who rolls up her sleeves and gets the job done!
"Electability" is generally just the blanket that the party elite give to their chosen candidate(s). It's the polite word and phrasing that the media and reporters use to communicate to voters who won the invisible money primary that went down about a year before the primary.
So in that capacity? Yes, Biden is the most "electable" Democrat. Whether that matters is another story, since Bernie has shown that you can launch a very competitive grassroots small donor base and be economically competitive with the people who decide who is "electable" and who isn't.
2
Joe's popularity had a sell-by date that expired when he announced his candidacy; just in the nick of time. The former VP believes the shiv Mitch McConnell carries in his pocket is for someone else.
Let's pause to remember that Justice Scalia's body had not reached room temperature before Mitch stuck one into Obama's ribs with Judge Garland.
This Republican party and their president is not remotely interested in reason, facts, compromise, negotiation, or trust. Winning is all that matters for them and they will do whatever it takes, legal, unethical, immoral, or criminal to get there. That Mr. Biden believes otherwise disqualifies him from the nomination.
3
What is astonishing is that there is a perfectly wonderful Democratic candidate: Elizabeth Warren. The press is ignoring her. If they gave her 1/10th of the attention they gave Trump, she's be a shoe-in. Biden is only an almost ran, an ok guy with a decent facelift and lots of ratty baggage. If he believes that he can cross the aisle, he's not been paying attention to politics during the last 10 years. I believe that Mr. Bouie is correct and that Joe Biden is not the person to unseat Trump. To really split hairs, the campaign logo is painfully awful too.
6
From the article:
"He is a 36-year veteran of Washington who backed the Iraq War, cultivated close ties with banks and credit card companies and played a leading role in shaping the punitive policies that helped produced mass incarceration. As he did with Clinton, Trump can slam him on these issues and sow division among Democratic voters."
Exactly. And have you heard him speaking in public recently. It's garbledegook. His polls are high now simply because of name recognition. His polls will tank once Trump start's telling blacks that the reason so many are in jail is because Biden's legislation put them there. Trump will blame the Iraq fiasco on Biden and his support for the war. He will say Biden prefers advancing the careers of women over men and that as a Senator in Delaware Joe has done more than anyone else in the Senate to give corporate billionaires a tax while the little guy scrounges for enough to buy a burger and a beer. And you know what, some of this is true and some of it is half-true. Biden will get paralyzed by the Trump invective and as a long-term Senator identified with the paralysis of Washington, it could be an amazing close race.
Instead, we need Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, Klobuchar, Gabbard -- those holding to the historic policy preferences of democrats who have actually advocated for progressive policy for years.
1
Maybe, or maybe not.
But how much money do you want the party and their donors to spend bashing each other before it’s figured out?
1
As much as they need to get it right.
As stated, it is premature to assume Biden is the most "electable" candidate.
As a party, Democrats don't have a platform and message that is fully articulated or compelling overall - this one is for Gun Control, that one is for Climate Change, this other one would eliminate student loan debt, this one we believe to be the epitome of the White Statesman.
So has the presidency now become picking issues and pushing them through regardless of who wants them or their impact on the country and world? More campaigning based on personality, exaggeration, circular rhetoric, and vitriol? Seems all we do is react now.
Do we Democrats even have a party platform anymore? Do we commit to any underlying philosophy, any set of policies that are driven by the consensus of the majority of the party? Are we even inclusive in our efforts to get input on what the people who identify as "not Republican" want or do we just send out fake surveys to get money?
Do we work to build our party and pull in the AOC and Bernie type supporters by including their concerns in our platforms?
Do we have a plan to minimize the inevitable progressive-moderate split in the next election?
How do we address the concerns those who felt sufficiently disenfranchised to vote for Trump in the last one? They aren't all white supremacists.
Oh yeah, silly me - this gray haired, somewhat inarticulate, guy is probably electable so...
2
When [your candidate] fails to win the nomination, will electability matter then? HRC actually won the nomination, because she won the most delegates in the primaries and caucuses, whatever you view on how that happened.
Party regulars play a different "what-if" game. What if Trump wins? They ask "how can this be avoided?" Pundits aren't responsible for what happens to the party, or the country if Democrats fail to win the White House.
It isn't whether a candidate can give a punch, can they TAKE a punch from the Bully-in-Chief?
We have the primary process for a reason. I will make my choice based on my reasoning on my primary day. To be sure, I will be thinking, "who can beat Orange Julius head to head?"
1
What about the Russians and their media campaign to get Trump elected? It is no secret that the Trump administration is opposed to any efforts to protect our voting systems and Republicians have a history of distructive policies toward black and minority voters. All these efforts could unseat any realistic contender to Mr. Trump'sthrown!
2
The Times and the Democratic party establishment decided a long time ago that they wanted a woman and, lately, has misread a couple of congressional districts to be harbingers of a widespread shift to the left in American preferences. They will lead us down another path - as they did when they decided in 2008 that the first black president would be followed by the first woman - in which we feel pure and righteous...
in defeat.
This column tries to paint Joe Biden as the insanity (doing the same thing but expecting a different result). I see the Times's editors, the party bureaucracy, and the party elite as doing that as they try, once again, to craft the election around a predetermined narrative and a "casting call" approach in which the 1% screen and select from potential candidates. Why not hold fair primaries without the establishment's thumb on the scale (it worked until 2016; give it a try).
And stop with the attacks on "electability." It's an interesting and important summary construct - and it's important to think ahead to the general election as we select a candidate. It's not a trope for sexism or racism or anything else - it's a core idea to the primary elections and the Times is just mad they don't own it anymore.
4
Here's how it really works. If the economy continues to improve we democrats will fail to take the presidency even if we have a god running. If the economy tanks we dems will successfully take the presidency even if we run an actual donkey. Anyways, democrats should vote for who they agree with most, and not worry about this "electable" stuff.
2
This comments section is emblematic of the problem with Democrats. Biden polls astonishingly well with the white working class AND African-Americans. Yet the remarks here reek of “Trump will be mean to him” and banal comparisons to Hillary Clinton. The 2016 primary consisted of three candidates and Clinton amassing hundreds of super-delegates before a single vote was cast. The comparison is just silly.
If Biden wins this, he will have earned it. This is Mr. Bouie’s third anti-Biden piece this year. How about we let the candidates make their arguments before we start drawing hackneyed distinctions.
2
I hope you’re going to report on Margaret Thatcher telling old Joe that she is afraid of Trump. Let the gaffes begin!
So far he's been running a pretty smart campaign, goading Trump into talking about Charlottesville and tweeting about him 58 times in one morning. It's almost like he's done this before.
1
As my mother used to say: the race isn’t always to the swift. But that’s how you bet.
2
Not in the least. Up there with Elizabeth Warren, Beto Rourke, Bernie Sanders, Correy Booker and Kirsten Gilibrand, he is one of the worst candidates.
Realistically there is only one viable candidate I can see. And if people haven't figured out why and who it is...well there is a lot of work ahead for thin the herd until that candidate emerges...
I'll let you guess who it is...
I, like many formerly independent voters, would literally vote for anyone over Trump. I do believe that if the elections were held today, and Hillary were a candidate again, she would narrowly win. I also know many Republicans who are completely embarrassed by Trump's crazy criminal behavior and would prefer any semi-rational candidate over him (though without a doubt they would rather not have Hillary). In fact, I believe these polls saying 90% of Republicans approve of Trump is wrong because the RNC rigs their polls to basically give you no alternative. I know, I have seen them. The RNC apparatchiks, like the grifters and sycophants in his administration, are simply flattering him because that's the only thing anyone can do with Trump. It is not representative of the negative view many Republicans actually have of him.
1
Moot points, all. With a strong economy and low unemployment, Bugs Bunny would be re-elected if he were the incumbent. But as added insurance, Bolton and Trump have begun beating the war drums on Iran, and I can tell you the last time 'America at War' switched Presidents -- never; therefore, none of the current blah blah matters a bit. For context, I am a liberal former Dem who loathes Trump with every fiber of my being, but I am not delusional -- he's a shoe-in in 2020.
3
I don't know if Biden is the most electable Democrat in 2020. When people cite the example of Hillary Clinton in 2016 has a warning sign about Biden's elect-ability, I wonder if they predicted a Trump victory before the 2016 election. Also, NYT readers tend to be more liberal , and they may not reflect the views of a sizable portion of Democrats..One final thought ,the democrats must capture both Houses of Congress and the White House to enact an agenda. If they lose the senate in 2020, good luck with their agenda.
2
First off, the Democrats need to find a way to showcase and impress voters with the quality of ALL the Democratic presidential candidates--compared to the big ethical and presidential zero of Trump and the GOP as a party. In other words, sell the party, how its diversity and values reflect the majority of America. The competition for its final candidate can be the best of the a winning group.
Secondly, if the Democrats sacrifice winning the Senate by not putting up great candidates in those races, then prepare for a continuation of vicious tribal combat with Mitch McConnell still holding the trump (sic) cards even without Trump in the White House.
3
MSM is in overdrive to stop Bernie. As much as I like Biden, he was part of a group that always had the interests of the Big Banks and Credit Card Companies(especially in Delaware) above all. In 2009, it broke my heart to go for an interview in one of the beautiful Big Bank buildings in Wilmington, as a nearby Church provided breakfast to a long line of homeless people.
Yes, this is what had become of America.Disparity beyond belief.
Millions of people lives torn asunder. Trillions provided to help the feckless Banks that caused it all.In the early part of the century,Foreclosures were associated with criminals,drug dealers, et al. However, it became the experience of the many.Some of us were able to sell our homes in time-but many people in New Jersey lost their homes and families.America is the land of comebacks. Let’s have another in 2020 ! Not sorry Team Pelosi and Schumer and MSM. Team Clueless 🗽
2
Mr. Biden previous choices raise doubt in regard to his values. He has been around the block far too many times. Go home!
2
Biden's electibility - or anyone else's - is yet to be determined. But he will be the most difficult to run *against*. Democrats need to recognise that the right wing/trxmp will conduct the same kind of campaign as they did in 2016. Hillary had everything they could run against, so they did. Overtly - because trxmp's a boviating loud mouth - and the whispering campaign at the grass roots. A Biden candidacy will take a lot of the air out of their campaign strategy. That's why only a white male can beat him. A white male may not, but any other demographic *will* not. Democrats need to put their fondest dreams on hold for just a little longer. It's too important for symbols and statements. Of course, they don't show any signs of having learned that lesson.
1
Hillary WAS electable, all the way through the election itself. She got 3 million more votes than Trump did. Hillary beat Trump. She lost the electoral college. Her campaign blew the election by ignoring, or taking for granted, states with “traditional Democrats”, ie, blue collar white union members. If Biden’s campaign avoids Hillary’s campaign mistakes, and if Biden goes all out for the union voters and blue collar whites, without ignoring black voters (who, in states like S. Carolina, LOVE Biden), then Biden will win the electoral college and get Trump out of the White House. That’s all that matters, folks.
You’ll never get Medicare for All if you can’t get rid of Trump, and none of the candidates who support Medicare for All, or the New Green Deal for that matter, none of them can beat Trump. To think otherwise is delusional.
I used to think that Biden needed Beto for VP. Now I think that Pete Butigieg is the best VP for Biden. The guy has got to have the highest IQ of any of the candidates out there, and his fluency in foreign languages will do wonders for reversing the untold damage Trump has created in our foreign relations. Being a white male, Butigieg won’t scare off Trump’s angry white male supporters, although his being gay will be a speed bump for them. I think those voters would actually vote for a gay man before they would vote for a woman of whatever persuasion. Being gay will give Pete an edge over Beto, pushing the envelope in the right direction overall.
1
@Ann
So you think the mayor kissing his mate on stage is going to fly with America? You and I don't care about this but the rest of America? I'm not so sure.
Rather than celebrate the fact that we have a politically formidable and resilient front-runner, we do Trump's work for him by tearing him down in favor of the untested talents of ____________. Unwise.
The main problem is this: Trump IS electable--again.
Dems should coalesce around the front-runner very soon (July), and winnow the field quickly. Too many energies (staff, funds) are being divided among the candidates, while the singular Trump amasses a fortune. As loathsome as he may be, he is the incumbent, and the party is unified in its efforts to re-elect him.
Bi-den! Bi-den! Bi-den!
1
Not for nothing, Trump was not considered an 'electable' anything .. and, well, you know.
1
Everyone has heard of Biden. The press loves him. So he is the best choice.
1
Bernie Sanders would get slaughtered in the general election if he won the Democratic nomination. So would Mayor Pete and Beto O'Rourke. The other male candidates are virtual unknowns, and a woman cannot be elected in this country. If Hillary couldn't win, with all her experience and attributes, forget about Kamala, Liz, Kirsten and the others. So who's left? Joe Biden. Affable, avuncular Joe Biden, who will return us to the status quo of the Obama years. Progressives hate the idea of the status quo, but wouldn't it be better than the "change" Trump has wrought?
2
In 2016, despite a total media blackout, DNC shenanigans and a very powerful and wealthy Clinton political machine, Bernie Sanders won 23 state primaries or caucuses. Biden, in 2008, received 23 votes in the entire state of Iowa and immediately dropped out of the race. Biden's electable? Whatever.
2
This is like breaking it off with your reliable partner of 8 years to spice things up with a "bad boy," you know, the flashy type with the convertable.
A couple of years out, his antics become exhausting, not to mention he's verbally abusive, and you panic. Desperate for your life to return to normal you start
flirting with your ex, mistakenly assuming that both of you can just patch things up and life will go back to normal.
Sure there are plenty of fish in the sea, maybe someone more mature that can help you move forward, even evolve into a more complete version of yourself, but you are blinded by your ego.
Your therapist warns you of this dire mistake, that you and the ex aren't the same people as you were in the past and what worked then likely won't work now. She
also reminds you that things weren't perfect before, which is why you broke it off in the first place.
2
Hate to say it, folks, but we've already had enough dissension sowed, Everyone out there afraid of evil "socialism" needs to wake up. Democratic socialism is NOT communism. But too many people are so hard-nosed and dead-set in their ideas that they won't consider anyone but someone with a don't-rock-the-boat agenda. The Russians are succeeding handsomely. We need to open our ears and minds. Social Security and Medicare were the last act of socialism in this country. I'd be on the streets and/or probably dead without them (literally, since I have Stage IV cancer). Take up IBM's motto ... THINK! We don't need to argue here. We need to try to push for a more liberal agenda to take our country back from the far-far-far right position it has been dragged to.
2
@chrismosca Social Security, Medicare, fair graduated taxation- all NOT Socialism. Socialism involves State ownership of industry. It is an actual disaster and an optics disaster. No Democratic Presidential should say the words Socialism, Black Lives Matter, rape culture, affirmative action, woke- all poison for the middle American white votes we need to beat Trump in Penn., Wisconsin and Michigan.
@Richard Katz Exactly the kind of thinking I was calling out. Sorry, but Social Security, Medicare, et al, ARE Socialism. Also sorry that that concept scares people like you, who are the ones allowing this conversation to be dragged further and further and further to the right. Just sticking your nose in the sand won't fend off Fascism.
1
Jamelle- "Do The Right Thing!" Like Sal, of Sal's Famous Pizzeria in the Spike Lee film, Biden is not perfect (or perfectly "woke.") But he is our best bet to defeat Trump- so please, do the right thing, and support Biden.
1
@Richard Katz
How? Wasn’t the rejection of Hillary also a rejection of the Obama/Biden administration?
Let's bear in mind that "safe" candidates can be the most dangerous. Gore. Kerry. McCain. Romney. Clinton...
This 71 year old is ready for a candidate who is willing to bust up some crockery en route to the White House, My personal favorite is Warren, but there are others. But not Biden. Biden is the over cautious and perennially inoffensive past.
2
The Biden knives are out swinging.
All the demographics are conspicuously in his favor. So, who can boast a better chance of winning? Dream on.
1
Oh please. Biden's time as the "front-runner" will be short-lived -- his policies and beliefs don't match up with the majority of Americans'. He's a creature of the establishment, has #metoo issues and is famously gaffe-prone. He'll be a goner in no time, after which the MSM will look desperately to find someone else to call the front-runner or the candidate generating the most excitement -- ANYONE, that is, other than the one candidate the NY Times and the rest of the media/political/corporate establishment ABSOLUTELY do not want: Senator Bernie Sanders.
He's our country's most popular politician -- and has been for years. There's good reason the power players don't want him in power -- and good reason why so many people do.
2
Biden/Harris 2020. Joe can help restore order to our country and Nato and is a beloved figure.....Harris has the experience to be Prez. after Joe and she will also move him a bit to the left. Mostly, they will make major effort to re-unite our country......and having Obama as an ally doesn't sound so bad. Decency can be restored with Joe. Hope he is the front runner from beginning to end.
The nation now needs his experience and good will.
1
Nope, he’s the most Establishment Democrat which means the DNC will do everything it can to get Biden elected president. But ultimately it won’t work, just like it didn’t work for Hillary in 2016. Bernie 2020!
5
Biden does have many electability problems notwithstanding his initially favorable poll numbers.
But, that said, Mr. Bouie's writing off of all blue collar voters is off the mark.
Approximately 4 million blue collar workers voted twice for Democratic and black Barrack Obama before switching to Trump after Clinton functionally wrote them off.
They can be brought back, and Biden might be one of the Democratic candidates who could to that, and that is something to consider.
1
This is a good column. It would mean more if you had endorsed your own preferred candidate.
1
Biden seems incapable of thinking that most republicans are very happy with Trump.
its all way too soon to be all hyped up about any one candidate. way too soon.
2
It seems unlikely. He has problems with women (based upon a real insensitivity or awareness), problems with young voters, problems with his own age and a lifetime of never ac tually being the one making the decisions. Oh, and no new ideas to meet the future.
I am still waiting to meet the best candidate to beat Trump and lead the country back to its rationality and essential goodness. If it's ideas then its Warren. If it's connecting to the most voters we will need wait to see. But it's not Biden. We don't do this by whose turn is it. That hasn't worked.
Clinton did not have blue collar whites in my area in 2008. Barack Obama did. She didn’t have them in 2016, either, Bernie did. The blue collared ones I know blame Bill Clinton for the trade deals which destroyed many manufacturing jobs in the Midwest. And whether this is true or not hardly matters if they believe it. I’m not sure Joe can overcome the thinking. I’d run someone new!
1
Consider the possibility that the Most Recommended comments against Biden may be so highly recommended because they are being recommended by Trump supporters (or business and foreign governments), who consider Biden the biggest threat to Trump's reelection.
The 2020 election will boil down to just several states in which the Democratic candidate will have to regain Obama/Trump voters. Biden appears to be the only candidate who has substantial credibility with those folks. And, just what might an other-than-Biden candidate say that would persuade an Obama/Trump voter to return to the Democratic fold? Thus, so far, unless you believe reelecting Trump is better than a Biden presidency, your objections to Biden, as legitimate as many are, merely provides support for four more years of Trumpian destruction of our country.
As well, one should consider where Biden's support comes from, as it (again, so far) defies the anyone-but-Biden received wisdom. Though it is obviously preliminary, Nate Silver's piece for FiveThirtyEight is instructive, including data indicating substantial non-white support for Biden over anyone else in the field.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
Of course it is possible another viable candidate might yet appear out of "nowhere", much as Bill Clinton did.
3
The right candidate would be the one who can swing back those voters in rural and small town Heartland communities who voted against Hillary in 2016. I do not believe that they did so because her views were not radical enough on racial issues, gender issues or social engineering by comparison to the Trump whom they favored. Like it or not, in electoral college America those are the districts that sway Presidential elections.
4
I think Bouie's warning is one Democrats should heed. Biden is a charming man. But he has a lot of baggage behind him, is prone to gaffes, and is out of tune with a large portion of the Democratic base that wants a more transformative vision and not 1990s policy. Put the spotlight and the pressure on Biden (as Trump and the GOP will do masterfully) and I worry he'll fold.
Beyond that, the Democrats need to figure out which demographic to target. They have four to aim for, but those four have different interests:
Wealthier, better educated White suburbanites. This is a demographic that would prefer a Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney, but may temporarily swing Democratic and against Trump. These voters want centrist economic policies.
Working class Whites. These are mostly Republican now, but the Democrats can pick off a few. This is a very fickle demographic, though, that tends to vote to blow things up. They liked Trump because he was a disrupter, but some may now be ready to blow up Trump too. These voters trend socially conservative, dislike so-called identity politics, and are economic populists.
Black voters. The most reliable demographic for Democrats and too often taken for granted. This is a turnout play. You need to get Blacks to the polls. Trust is maybe more important than policy for this group.
Young people, women, and true liberals. Turnout play again—getting them to the polls means offering big progressive policy.
Uniting all four groups will not be easy.
3
What was once considered a positive (experience) is now a negative (baggage).
How can I get excited about a youthful candidate when their trend is toward totally discarding the past?
1
@Jeffrey Cosloy
Biden's baggage is his support for the Iraq War, support for the crime bill which through excessive incarceration devastated many Black communities, and some weird touchy-feely incidents with women. Not sure any of those things were ever positives.
As far as youthful candidates, I think they are mostly focused on the future. It's not so much that they are discarding the past as they want to reverse economic, social, and environmental trends that are threatening their futures.
I think part of Biden's "electability" equation is that he will get enough African-American votes (because of his association with with Obama) and blue-collar votes (because of his pro-union platitudes) that he can just barely reassemble the Obama coalition. Will it work? Maybe. But my millenial kids are, like, meh..... They want Buttigieg or Sanders or Warren. (Boomer me, too.)
4
@Marianne, put Butigieg on the ticket as VP. Slam dunk for victory. I would pay money to see Butigieg debate Mike Pence. Both from Indiana, but worlds apart otherwise.
1
Oh, I do think we know about Biden's electability, and Mr. Bouie seems to know too. Biden is not electable. All you need to do to confirm that conclusion is ts to listen to one minute and eleven seconds of this his slurred and disjointed opening campaign speech in PA. Biden will lose if nominated. https://patriotpost.us/articles/62725-video-biden-stumbles-slurs-through-speech
4
Joe is not going to even win the Democratic primary.
Jeez, the day he launched his campaign, Joe held a fundraiser with Republican donors and corporate lobbyists.
That was almost as stupid as his vote for the Iraq War.
And there were the votes for NAFTA and Wall Street deregulation.
Clueless Joe, the corporate bag man is going nowhere.
3
Please NOT Biden not another Republican lite candidate when the people want real progressive change. We need something directed at the people for their benefit. Biden may be a nice old guy and be chummy with Republicans but name one Republican worthy of office. Name a Republican program that the we the people support. Tax cuts for the rich eh NO!! Ignore Russian interference in our election NO!! Please NO!! Voter suppression No!! Guess guns all the time NO!!!
There are number of viable attractive new Candidates Warren, Harras, Buttigieg, to name a few with policies and the personality to not be chummy with the Republicans. The Republicans are not chummy they are our way or the highway types. They lie cheat and will steal the next election if they have too. They all need to be removed at all levels. So NO to Biden.
3
I find Biden's name-checking on the stump of "my buddy...my buddy...Barack Obama" odious. Exactly what buddy stuff do they do together? Movies, barbecue, church, committees, poker, furniture moving, vacations?
Add his humble-braggy "I shouldn't be so casual - the president of the United States," and ugh. Already Biden sounds cloying, needy and desperate. Like Willy Loman, but without the pathos.
5
“Electability” (n., obs.) a term invented by Republicans to bamboozle Democrats into nominating someone they can easily beat.
2
As Calvin Trillin once said, “It’s too soon to tell.”
Gimme a break already with these pieces. This is like deciding who will win the World Series the first week of Spring training. We haven’t even seen an exhibition game yet. Do yourselves a favor and wait till the real season begins and the players take the field before making judgement calls.
2020 is close, yet so far away.
6
For Biden to deny that Trumpism is the soul of the Republican party is as morally reprehensible as Republicans denying climate change. Biden can't defeat Trump because he is part of the corrupt political / media system that produced him. Sleazy Republicans chasing right wing media farther into demagoguery & fascism every year, sleazy Democrats smiling & offering up compromise to the turned backs of the Republicans . . . aren't people tired of this game?
2
Just when you think a banana slug could/should beat Trump with all of his ugly baggage, craziness, stupidity and dishonesty, along comes a quivering, hand-wringing chorus about how dems must go with Biden because he's the most 'electable'.
What does that even mean?
To those who think Biden is the most electable, it doesn't matter if he's a little dim; Trumpsky has trumped that for all time. Doesn't matter if Biden's clueless about kissing/ hugging/touching/smelling people, that's just Joe being Joe, like Trump being Trump but not as repulsive. Doesn't matter if Biden is the poster boy of the quintessential pol, who by dint of staying power and a 40 watt smile, has managed to get past his sell-by date.
Yes, he can probably guarantee, say, Pennsylvania will go to the dems; how he'll appeal to rabid Trumpites is unexplained but it's a given: Joe delivers.
Except what is he going to deliver? Warren and Sanders and the rest of the democratic candidates understand and articulate problems they have proposed policies to solve. What's Biden got to offer? We might ask, though Biden has been around forever, where has he been?
Know when to fold 'em, Joe.
7
Let's unpack the truisms of electoral politics. As persistently unpopular as trump is, whoever the Democratic candidate is will be working against a headwind powered by three separate factors:
1.) Running against an incumbent. Statistically, incumbent presidents win more than they lose.
2.) The EC. Yes, maddening as it is, this remnant of slave state compromise builds in a huge bias against urban Democratic strongholds.
3.) Finally, the 'E' word. Like it or not, the economy is still humming along, and despite steadily growing income inequality, the average moderate voter will adhere to the 'don't rock the boat' rule insofar as the economy goes. And again statistically, the party in power does very well when the economy is perceived to be healthy.
All that said, trump can (I hope) be beaten by just about any of the Democrats currently running, and I think the points Bouie makes against Biden candidacy are worth serious consideration.
4
@Mike
The parenthetical "I hope" is one that I confess to sometimes sharing, but we have seen no one but Biden break out of the pack--and this to the surprise of the majority of the punditry.
Remember, practically speaking, we don't just elect a president, we elect a party to the executive branch.
If Biden is unelectable, then we're doomed in 2020, because I promise you that none of the others are electable either.
6
I'm so tired of the "incremental change" argument. It's just another way that Democrats pander to the extremist right instead of standing up to it.
Biden voted for sweeping changes to bankruptcy and welfare laws that took effect immediately and made life much more difficult for millions of people. He voted for the Iraq war in spite of plenty of evidence that it was based on made up "evidence," and we upended life in a sovereign nation overnight.
Where were the arguments for incrementalism then?
Where were the arguments for incrementalism when Trump passed his sweeping tax law in 2017 -- in record time and with almost no discussion? I could go on. And on.
Why is it that incrementalism only seems necessary when someone is talking about change that will benefit most people?
6
H. Clinton lost the presidency by fewer than 80,000 votes scattered among three midwestern states.
If Democrats can't nominate a candidate who'd expand their authentic contemporary base by 80,000 votes but instead go bottom-fishing for votes among citizens who hate liberals, hate feminists, hate immigrants, hate gays and hate most people of color, then Democrats have become even more corrupt than Repulbicans.
100
@camorrista
Those were Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan = all predominantly sexist evangelical and Catholic. Any female would have a tough time in a presidential election with that crowd today. Clinton did well there in 2008, but the Obama admin lost many states with its failed economic policies that angered these bedrock folks. So, they took it out on Dems in midterms after 2010 and esp. in the presidential election of 2016.
2
@Maggie
What do you mean by " Obama admin... failed economic policies?" Obama came into office during the Great Recession. He wanted to give more tax cuts, food assistance etc.. to the workers but Republicans fought him at every point making sure that the budget deficit was a top concern without worrying about all of the people who were out of work. Then when the Republicans got into power all they cared about was giving themselves tax cuts and blowing up the budget. Obama brought the country out of recession with no thanks to Republicans.
22
@camorrista Stupid would be more apt than corrupt.
3
Biden's fine.
6
Biden? Good God help us all. The wrong man, in the wrong place, at the wrong time.
He's Hillary 2.0.
8
@Michael
He's not Clinton anything, nor even Biden 2.0.
He's Biden 3.0 and even 4.0.
It is very strange to me that we are racking our brains to figure out how to beat a cruel, divisive, corrupt president who cozies up to dictators and insults our allies.
It appears that we have become too tribal and stupid to have nice things. Like a democracy. Maybe like a planet that can support us.
10
Agreed.
1
This is Jamelle Bouie's best column, ever!
One fact Mr. Bouie neglected to consider is that Biden has not been in the crosshairs of the Faux News / Limbaugh slime machine for the past twenty-something years as was HRC. Her name was mud in the red states without any help from tRump.
3
No, he's not ....but here's the rub: there are countless GOP / Trump flippers who will only vote DEM in 2020 if Joe is the guy ... NOW WHAT ???
2
I find the comments interesting. People not voting for Biden because he is old or white or male or any combination. It is not just in this column but heard on talk shines regularly. Imagine if similar comments were leveled at Kamala, Corey or Pete. I guess it is okay to be a bigot in the eyes of the liberal elites as long as your prejudices meet with their approval
8
Please, Mr. Biden; step up; listen to your conscience, and remove yourself.
3
Take this to the bank: the Democratic candidate most favored by NYT opinion columnists is (by definition) the candidate who will never win the general election.
5
@Richard
I'll take that to my SWISS bank!
1
Trump is a creep, and so is Joe Biden. Flip a coin.
4
Joe turned his State of Delaware into a domestic "Cayman Islands"- by signing off on a 29% APR for credit companies and "duty free" ports so millionaires can store their priceless art collections and other stuff without having to reveal provenance. You want to know where the "Nazi Treasure" of WWII is located? It's probably in one of those duty free ports along the Delaware River!
3
Warren 2020
2
Definitely not the most electable.
He is white, male, and old.
He is therefore the Devil Incarnate.
4
I don't know who these polls represent. I'm guessing the same polls that had Hilary as such a slam dunk. Joe Biden is likable certainly, but he's also past his "sell by date".
As you noted Mr. Bouie, it's more likely that the many of the blue collar voters who went for Trump will never return. This is exactly what happened in the late sixties when the Blue Dog Dems of Dixie left the party that championed civil rights, and women's rights, and the EEO. They never returned and formed the basis for today's Red Neck Republicans.
Instead we need someone who will meld the FDR New Deal past with the concerns of today - universal health care, the environment, ongoing discrimination, accessible and affordable higher education and technical training. These are the issues that motivate voters because they address their daily concerns, not the concerns of Wall St. and the donor class. Biden is well connected to the latter, as was Hilary, and where did that end up?
I think Uncle Joe is in for a rude awakening as people speak with their primary votes. He may be out in front now, but it's not who's leading the race in the beginning, it's the one leading across the finish line.
6
Biden is the most electable Democrat in the minds of Biden supporters.
I do like Biden but I think a country only moves forward with young and forward thinking people. It is not going to a septuagenarian, be that Trump, Biden, Warren, or Sanders.
2
Biden leads in the polls right now due to his name recognition. But he has much-discussed skeletons in his closet which will alienate the energized left-leaning voters who gave the Democrats the House last year. Let's hear from all the candidates in the debates first, and then rally behind whichever candidate has the best plan to fight the major crisis of our time - global warming.
3
It’s still far too early to tell. The campaign is a marathon, and a candidate’s ability to manage his or her campaign, a proxy for executive leadership, is revealed during the myriad primaries, debates and media scrutiny, and how one spend’s campaign money. Biden, though, lost my primary support when he said it’s Trump, not the GOP, that is the problem. Either he slept through the Obama years or he’s sending a thinly veiled message to the GOP bigots that, unlike the former president, he’s one of them, or white, so he can be trusted. What we really need is someone who’s going to blow the doors off the GOP and marginalize it for a generation. I don’t think Biden is the person to do it.
4
They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting different results. Democrats have been trying to win over Republican voters for 3 decades as part of their main electoral strategy, and followed Republicans in chasing after big money with strings attached. But in doing so the Dems alienated many Americans who feel (correctly) that they are not pressing the interests of the people in congress. Anti-establishment feelings propelled Obama into office in the first place (inspired by hope and change), and those same sentiments left the establishment Clinton campaign as electoral roadkill in 2016. The dominant sentiment of our time isn't left-vs-right, it is establishment-vs-anti-establishment. If Democrats want to win, they need an anti-establishment candidate, and stop ceding this role to people like Trump. And the best way to beat Trump isn't to isolate him from establishment Republicans, it is to connect him firmly with the establishment...in other words, Joe Biden's attacks are helping Donald Trump.
7
@John
"...the best way to beat Trump isn't to isolate him from establishment Republicans, it is to connect him firmly with the establishment...in other words, Joe Biden's attacks are helping Donald Trump."
Exactly. It's astonishing that so many Democrats (& the media) don't get this.
1
“Clinton’s unpopularity at the end of her campaign was a complete reversal from her standing at the start, when she, like Biden, was widely admired by the public. “
This is critical for Democrats to understand regardless of which one wins the nomination.
And it should put paid to even a single discussant attempting to cite any poll regarding Bernie Sanders....effectively a Trojan horse for re-electing Donald Trump and so exempted from being attacked by the GOP>
2
Joe Biden richly deserves our respect for his long service to his state and his country. However, that long record does not in any way make him the sure-fire bet to send Trump packing. This 68 year old New Hampshire primary voter is hoping that one of the many good candidates, not born in the Truman or FDR administrations, rises to the top to challenge Trump. The contrast in age and a more hopeful, forward thinking agenda is what is going to be needed to beat Trump. Democrats need to motivate their people to come out and vote. Trump will still be working in 2020 to return us to the 1950’s. We left that era a long time ago. Let’s not nominate a candidate who grew up with black and white tv and a coal fired furnace.
1
@Robert Nevins
To limit ourselves by age makes no more sense than limiting ourselves by race or gender. It is both immoral and foolish to thus limit our chances to nominate the best candidate.
Let’s listen to them all and then choose someone who can govern wisely, whose policies we respect and, yes, someone we believe can win.
1
Politics has become such an undesirable career that the best and brightest shun it. Imagine if the Bill of Rights and Constitution had to be written by our current crop of elected officials.
4
I haven’t decided who I will vote for but the current field of Democrats is pretty weak. It reminds me of when W was running for re-election and Kerry was the Democratic ticket.
Times were bad then and equally bad now in different ways. However, the Democratic Party is fooling themselves if they think there is a single legitimate candidate in this group who can dethrone Trump. He is probably salivating over this field of weak opponents. I will stick to the top three:
1) Biden - Trumps election was a complete rebuke of the Obama administration and Joe represents a return to the past (to even before Obama). He also has some odd behaviors and past issues that Trump will easily capitalize on.
2) Warren - She was weak and took the DNA test, he will bring this up every time they debate and make her look weak and needy. She also wants to increase regulation again which is generally bad for the economy.
3) Bernie - too old, too slow, and really just in this to enrich his own pocket.
Trump up against any one of these three will come off as more confident, powerful, and his record outside of Russia / separating kids from families, etc has some huge wins (largest economic expansion in recent memory, unemployment near all time low, getting lots of countries to the table for negotiations.
We may not like him, but it is going to take someone special to beat him and right now I just don’t see it and don’t think I am alone in that view.
3
The Dems need to start articulating what their plans are for education, tax code, immigration, health care and Infrastructure. A clear, concise message. Otherwise, the Republicans are going to take the lead on defining the Democrat plan, and it won't be flattering.
The lack of a clear message and path will doom any Candidate the Dems put in place.
2
@Riveral
Yes, they need to do that, but not just to prevent Trump from defining them. They need to do it to motivate voters to vote for them. For many of us, this is more important that a charisma contest.
2
I wish there was more focus on candidates policy plans rather than jumping straight judging whether they are "electable". Starting with "electable" is putting the cart before the horse.
There are a lot of good candidates with good teams behind them. With all this brain power, Dems ought to be able to identify and enumerate critical issues and develop a variety of plans to face those issues.
Of course this is happening to some extent, but there is not a lot of positive feedback for that effort when media focuses on primarily on electability or other indirect "qualifications".
3
Also relevant to the equation is understanding what motivated grass roots volunteers to propel us to victory in the House in 2018. As someone who participated strongly in turning NY-19 blue, I can assure you that the most active volunteers were passionate about Delgado as the candidate. Based on what we learned in 2018, the 2020 Presidential candidate best positioned to win will be the one who inspires the highest level of grass roots engagement, and it is very hard for me to imagine Biden will meet that criterion. This election is about what our future needs to be, not about return to an imaginary past.
6
By this logic, is any candidate electable. Will any candidate survive Trump’s onslaught. I can replace Biden with Bernie and write the same article, electability and all, or Kamala or Warren or anyone else.
Let the primaries play out, and then the elections. If Democrats stay home on the Election Day, then just accept the fact that more people want to elect Trump over the Democrat nominee.
6
How about Pelosi?
2
Sanders is the most electable. And after him Warren and maybe Harris but she's a black woman so that's a double whammy in racist America so maybe not.
3
"Lunch Bucket Joe" - a white-collar lawyer and smiley politician all his life - has never owned a lunch-bucket. Not only will he get few blue-collar votes, he'll lose the female vote due to his history. They will just stay home.
The Democrats never learn; Biden is Hillary in a pantsuit but without the steel. Trump will crush him like a beer can.
8
Are tradition and nostalgia enough to gild a flawed politician as 'the one' to beat? Not that fast, it seems, as 'fresh blood' is for the taking. And yet, name recognition, as we see in Hollywood stardom ( so, not the Kardashian's nor the Trumpian scum), is hard to ignore. Let the best win, and that means the one with the knowledge, honesty, hard work, and dedication required to do what's in the public's best interest. This, in contrast with the current ugly bully in-chief unwilling to represent us all...in favor of a gullible 'base' ready and willing to applaud his dangerous nonsense.
2
Many of the "blue collar" in Mi., saw trade deals that benefit financial elites in the east and tech companies in the west. As Mi., Ohio Wi. and Pa. were ignored, enough voters in those states gave Trump his margin for an electoral college win. Clinton lost not because of sexism but her lack of effort in key states. Think Trump won't go after Democrats other than Biden? No candidate is perfect but most Americans old enough to remember the 80s and 90s would say Biden has nothing to apologise for.
3
I wonder how many readers of these comments consider the possibility that the Most Recommended comments against Biden may be so highly recommended because they are being recommended by Trump supporters (or business and foreign governments), who consider Biden the biggest threat to Trump's reelection.
The election will boil down to just several states in which the Democratic candidate will have to regain Obama/Trump voters. Biden has substantial credibility with those folks. So far, unless you believe reelecting Trump is better than Biden, your objections to Biden, as legitimate as many are, merely provides support for four more years of Trumpian destruction of our country. Just what might an other-than-Biden candidate say that would persuade an Obama/Trump voter to return to the Democratic fold?
As well, one should consider where Biden's support comes from, as it (so far) defies the anyone-but-Biden received wisdom. Though it is obviously preliminary, Nate Silver's piece for FiveThirtyEight is instructive, including data indicating substantial non-white support for Biden over anyone else in the field.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/
Of course it is possible another viable candidate might yet appear out of "nowhere", much as Bill Clinton did.
2
Certainly to predict outcomes this far out is the height of folly, but Biden does have some advantages now, that if they hold up, should make him the best anti Trump person in the field. Bernie and Warren are too "socialist." Beto is too "Beto", Mayor Pete may be the Silky Sullivan of 2020 but we don't know what he stands for...yet! Biden has that working class background that still resonates in Trumpian areas. The biggest plus for Democrats is that Trump's base has shown no sign of expanding.
4
Yeah, I don’t know if he is MOST electable, but I have my opinion about two people who are NOT electable in the general election but who could get the nomination.
Among the left leaning Demos, we all know who'll be uncorruptible once in the Oval Office & that boils down to two individuals. Every other candidate is questionable due to campaign financing & the attendant obligatory indebtedness.
If you're not supporting Bernie or Elizabeth, you're taking a chance on the outcome. In the final analysis, Biden is also a known quantity, even if mostly in the opposite direction. If he's the choice, so be it.
The most important thing is..we don't want to be fooled again.
6
Very well articulated analysis. I think we should also point out Clinton ran deficits compared to Obama in almost every major Democratic caucus. Blue-collar mutiny and black indifference were only part of the problem.
Clinton lost ground with Hispanic voters despite increased demographic significance and increased voter turnout. Ouch...
Meanwhile, millennials basically revolted against Clinton. How can you blame them? "Hope you can believe in" vs. "I promise more of the same." It doesn't take a statistician to figure out why Clinton was underwhelming on election night. Biden is heading down the same path already.
Democrats assumed people would simply rally behind Clinton because she is less awful than Trump. Democrats appear to be making the same mistake with Biden.
More than half of all eligible voters have absolutely no loyalty to Joe Biden, the Democratic establishment, or the ideals of Clinton era. They are not going to turn out for an aging neoliberal with baggage.
Biden and other moderates are seeking persuasion. Without turnout though, Democrats lose regardless.
13
No.
2
Let's not fool ourselves. The way things are, Trump will win 2020 hands down. Democrats need an intelligent, coherent, likeable and brave candidate to clearly show that Trump is an idiot and win this race.
3
@zumzar
I’d like Sherrod Brown to reconsider.
1
Many comments suggest that Biden is not the best alternative to Trump, but suggest no alternative. Many also say that the Democrats should run on policies, but suggest none on which to hang the campaign (only Pelosi seems to have a grasp of policies and the priorities among them).
As well, after a term as POTUS, and with Republicans in charge of Congress for two years and the Senate for four years, Trump might have more difficulty convincing people that Washington is the problem. "Drain the swamp"? Not when it is filled with elected Republicans and Trump appointees.
White color, Blue collar voters are what make the Red states red. Why are they written off by Bouie and the progressive-diversity crowd? They need to stop belittling potential Democratic candidates who have a chance of defeating Trump and start honestly to promote others who they favor for the task. Stop the back stabbing, the faint praise, and the snide remarks - or face another four years of Trumpublicans.
Biden is electable if only Democrats and "Moderate" Republicans vote in 2020. But how many "Moderate" Republicans are left? Is Biden really the most electable of all the candidates running today? Biden has too much political baggage from his decades in public office, and not all of his past behavior is exemplary. Trump too has too much baggage, so maybe the most electable candidate is neither Biden nor Trump, but someone who came into the political arena after 2000.
Let's choose among the candidates by comparing their virtues not by exposing their faults.
4
@Kevin Cahill
Let’s do both, then make a fully informed choice.
2
In sports, the surest way to win a game is to play to WIN. The surest way to lose is to play NOT TO LOSE. I do not like the fact that our politics often plays like a sports contest, but for many voters it is just that. Regardless, I am totally tired of the nambi pambi don't offend anybody politics of the Democratic party.
The last two Democratic presidents were, in matters of policy, Republican light. Both of their attempts at reforming medical care, for example, were market based solutions that were as much giveaways to the industry as they were real solutions to our medical systems problems (which is why the one was defeated, and the other has not been effective in reigning in costs, nor did it provide universal coverage). Clinton "reformed" welfare, while Obama was willing to bargain Social Security. Republicans were unwilling to give Obama any support even for their most cherished goals, which is why Social Security is still intact. That is called playing to WIN.
The problem is not Trump, the problem is the Republican party. If the Dems nominate another Republican in sheep's clothing, then we just get more of the same. Biden is just more of the same.
15
@Steve G
If you won't risk losing, you don't deserve to win. That's why even Democrats won't vote for Democrats.
When Obama announced his bid fro the White House what was the CW? Clinton was a shoo in, nice try but give it up.When Bernie announced what was the CW? Socialist protest candidate, no money, no way. Yes he lost but not even remotely the way the pundits predicted. When Trump announced laughter ensued. All this ink is wasted on predicting this election, so just stop it. I generally don't mind speculation but the pundits seem to make their predictions and then spend most of their time writing narratives that will support their predictions, thus warping the process. Examine their rhetoric, make them provide specifics for their programs, pin them down as best you can, and quit trying to be Nostradamus, this does nothing for the public and only serves to stroke the ego's of the pundits.
2
As we know of and have analyzed each of the candidates running against Trump, Biden IS the least risky. It's not premature to state this. It's pretty much a fact. If he isn't, who is, Janelle?
1
Uncle Joe connects culturally with old-school white union Democrats in a genuine way that Hillary could only ever dream of. He has deep support of the black community at the same time. It's in assembling that coalition -- bringing together the working class across racial lines -- that gives me the most reason to support Biden. That's how you defeat Trump's politics of division and rebuild the middle class, for everyone this time. I don't agree with some of Biden's policy positions and his legislative record is indeed spotty. But I also believe him to be one of the most fundamentally decent people in politics, a real mensch, who has the capacity to learn from his mistakes and the long-earned wisdom to right this country's direction. And perhaps hand the baton to Amy Klobuchar after four years.
6
No way. Worse than Hillary and out of step with the times. A complete loser who only looks like yesterday’s middle of the road.
6
The national media is currently propping up Joe Biden as a serious contender as the Democrat nominee. I imagine that will come to a end once he has to speak on a national stage. Old age and pedophilia aside, Joe is a perpetual and embarrassing gaff machine.
3
With what we know now, it is not fair to say simply that "Clinton lost' without also noting that she was smeared by the Russians while Trump was propped up.
For this reason you can't compare her campaign to Biden's, although the same thing might happen to him.
Biden is not my candidate - I'm just noting the the comparison to Clinton isn't terribly helpful given the circumstances of the last election.
2
@Miss Manners
Biden is the same old type of centrist political creation, rebranding what used to be Republican for the New Democratic Party.
Do you expect the Russians to NOT interfere? It worked so well last time.
Actually, we can...Between herself, her staff, and the DNC, they really mucked things up with bad decisions...It would not be fair to chalk up her loss to only Russian interference...
There is a huge difference between looking electable and being electable. Biden's history of backing the Iraq war, supporting banks and credit card companies against consumer-friendly legislation and shaping the politics of mass incarceration will not get him a single conservative vote, but it will turn many liberals against him. He is a male, older version of Hillary Clinton; he will lose for the same reasons she lost and being a man will not help him in the least.
30
It's not hard. Trump ran against globalist status quo. The only other candidate doing that was Bernie. Had Clinton offered Bernie the Veep spot and done a mea culpa on nafta and other trade deals she would be president today. Comes Biden and does what, exactly. I don't see it. Trump used his wealth to pretend he could be free of big money politics. Biden is a big money politics kind of guy.
The only way Dems beat Trump is to stand with small donor voters on a Bernie platform with Bernie standing in as an eminence grise while a younger version like Liz Warren leads the charge to restore balance in the body politic which has skewed wayyyyy corporate right wing. The Green New Deal would be popular. USA should become a leader on clean energy, not a follower as Trump would have it to please his billionaire buddies. Trump offers zero consumer protection from big business (media, pharma, energy, finance). Progressives can win if they can convince the public their regulation will help, not hinder, economic progress.
Neo liberal globalism can't beat Trump. At the same time, Trump's brand of internationalism has had disappointments. The progressives cant let him get away with "at least I tried". They have to show they have a better third way.
Hard to see where Biden fits in. He had his day in the sun.
13
@Excellency
Well said. It’s weird that this type of spot on commentary isn’t mainstream.
1
@Excellency Really, it would've been "not hard" to get Sanders on the Clinton ticket? I think that would've been pretty hard.
1
Again, Trump is President because of those supporters who turned out in record numbers, and the minority community who stayed home in sufficient numbers to sway the election. Again, it is irrelevant who the Democratic nominee is in 2020, there is no Hillary to hate, no Facebook to influence, no hope of a Trump pivot. This lightning strike will not happen again. It's like the North fighting the Confederates, it only looked like a close call because the North fought with one hand behind it's back.
3
the only thing really known is Bernie is not electable and just as his running in 206 for the nomination got Trump elected in 2016, it will do so in 2020 unless Bernie supporters grow up this time around and not only deny Bernie the nomination but get out the vote for whomever might be the Democratic nominee. Let us remember, for example, that Justice Ginsberg likely will not be in SCOTUS until 2024; American justice will disappear if Trump gets another pick.
10
@Bruce
IS it known? Did we have an election or anything? Hillary proved that people want something different from corporate neo-liberal clap-trap. Can we at least TRY a new tactic?
The only thing that makes Biden the "most electable" is that all the other candidates are too far late to have serious appeal outside the bubble. Biden's appeal is that he's not leftwing. His ace in the hole, in fact.
4
@AANY
Since he isn’t left, he’s right?
Pollsters ask questions to suit the priorities of those who pay for polls. Pundits & politicians spin polls to tell the public who they are and who they're willing to vote for. What we need is someone with the vision and force to speak above this game of spin, not someone (like Biden, or Trump) who was empowered by it.
5
Clinton's problem in 2016 was that too many Bernie Bro's took their ball and went home. Boo hoo and now Trump has just had his 100th right wing judge successfully put in place. Do people not understand how this works?
And I can't see how someone like Trump (given his proven record with women) could possibly cast a shadow over anyone when it comes to respect for women. All Biden would have to do is play the same game. Its going to get ugly no matter what. The question is: who has the most and brightest glowing skeletons?
The winning combo would be Biden and a running mate from the left. Trump and his base are already afraid of Joe. A progressive running mate would really put them on edge.
2
@mark
Biden will need a leftwing VP to keep peevish progressives from sitting out the election.
@mark
Too many people thought it was Hillary’s “turn”. Stop blaming the victims of that folly.
1. Your “Bernie Bros” comment does a diservice to all the female supporters of Sanders: https://www.npr.org/2016/02/01/465144857/women-and-the-generational-divide-between-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders
2. Clinton didn’t lose because Sanders supporters didn’t vote for her: https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds
3. I highly recommend reading the above provided links and you might gain more insight
4. Clinton was a terrible candidate...As was her campaign staff and the DNC
I'm at a loss to understand why Biden thinks he can reach out and work with "moderate Republicans." Was he paying attention while Obama was president? I don't remember much in the way of moderate behavior among Republicans then. I do remember "You lie!" and undermining the ACA when it was a bill and Merrick Garland and... something about a tan suit.
Bottom line: Trump is not the disease. Trump is the result of the disease, and if Biden believes he's going to be a McConnell whisperer, he's living in a fantasy world, plain and simple.
People voted for Trump because they want change. Clinton didn't offer that, and neither does Biden. Biden represents an ossified wing of the Democratic party that's happy to throw a few social justice crumbs while maintaining the status quo with banks, big corporations, and billionaires. Because of both of these things, he'll turn off conservative and swing voters, not engage them.
41
The democrats have some real problems:
Biden is too old
OAC is too radical
Harris has some troubling issues from a conservative past
Warren would be a good president, but a lousy candidate
The kid from South Bend would make a terrific president - in 8 or 12 years
The Democrats need someone who ameliorates all of the above. Right now, Julian Castro looks like the guy that displays all the good about each of the above and doesen't have the baggage.
Pretty much all other named candidates are in the race to increase their familiarity and gt a good job in the cabinet if a Democrat wins in 2020.
The big problem is Bernie, the Democrats need to figure out who has the skills to attract Bernie's supporters and get elected.
1
@William
"The big problem is Bernie, the Democrats need to figure out who has the skills to attract Bernie's supporters and get elected."
No need to overthink it, you answered your own question. Twice.
1
As an observer, Biden brings a familiar feeling of normalcy, and that is comforting. He is also a seasoned politician who knows the ropes, but most importantly he knows how to get under Trump's skin. Biden comes off as decent man, but no pushover, he just needs a solid policy plan to pitch to voters. For me, his age is not an issue, especially if he picks the right running mate.
Trump sees his opponents through the same prism, like some twisted arcade game, ready to assign nasty nicknames then pick them off, one by one. Sure, I would love to see Elizabeth Warren, or Kamala Harris, bringing fresh ideas, but Trump especially dislikes women in power, and that's a worry, especially after Clinton. I see Biden taking the hits and standing a chance of winning back the White House and ending this nightmare.
3
Biden will mess it up. Maybe Warren can spring back. She's definitely smart. With Buttigieg as VP. But will be tough to beat Trump with the economy and the false collusion failure.
2
"A more recent poll, from CNN, shows Biden leading Trump in a hypothetical matchup, 51 percent to 45 percent."
Could we please stop treating nationwide Presidential elections polls as if they were somehow useful pieces of data?
By their sampling design, nationwide polls do not come even close to capturing the Electoral College dynamics, with its 1) small- and rural-state bias and 2) winner-take-all rule for all but 2 states (ME and NE).
Leading in nationwide polls — or even actually winning the popular vote — is neither necessary nor sufficient condition for winning the Electoral College and therefore the White House.
19
I repeat almost exactly what one of us has already said. I do not believe I will be the last.
Biden is my last choice.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Citizen US SE
7
What is the democratic platform exactly?
5
A very good question. We know Trump's platform: Do the opposite of what Obama did.
"But if he wins the nomination, he will face a scorched-earth effort against his campaign. "
Seriously? Whomever is the Dem nominee will face the same ugly campaign. The GOP will just tailor the ugliness to the particular nominee.
5
One has to ask if voter suppression of Blacks in Wis., Michigan and Pennsylvania were why Clinton lost. She attracted Blacks far better than Sanders.
As for Biden, it's too early to see who will get the nomination. I do NOT think dump has any right to accuse Biden of any physical harassment. My only concern is his age.
2
The “scandal” link is to Hunter Biden’s involvement with the crooks in Ukraine and possibly inappropriate actions by his father in that regard.
The more important scandal is Hunter’s investment group getting a billion dollar loan from a Chinese government bank 2 weeks after he and Vice-President/ Daddy made a trip to China together. A billion dollars. From the Chinese government.
Joe is an affable guy. He is also a card-carrying member of the global kakistocracy that has been selling out Americans and working people for at least a generation. When Trump gets through with him, as in 2016 most people will feel like they are deciding between just two different flavors of crook.
19
@KBronson I don't know the details of this, but what is the scandal? The loan itself? Akon received a billion dollar loan from the Chinese to build mini energy grids throughout Africa. Is that also a scandal?
The thought of Biden as the nominee Is so uninspiring.
19
You've got to admire a candidate who proudly announces he's had a recent conversation with UK Prime Minister Thatcher.
6
Once again, the Democratic Party is telling me they know better than I who I should vote for: someone who is beholden to Wall Street and contributed to the rise of someone like President Trump in the first place.
It wouldn’t occur to the Democratic Party to let the people tell them who they want for president during the presidential primaries, like the Republican Party did in 2016, and then run the people’s choice against Trump. I suppose the Democrats will use superdelegates again, unlike the Republicans, so that I can watch as the popular vote is overridden in the Democratic Party primaries by the Democratic Party giving us who we should have voted for. You don’t find that a bit “elitist?”
Of course, I’ll dutifully vote for whomever the Democratic Party decides to put on the 2020 ballot because I’m voting against Trump. And I will resent the Democratic Party for once again being tone deaf, not playing fair in the primaries with their own party voters and treating me like I’m too stupid to understand the implications of my choices. If only the Republicans had decided to ignore the will of their voters in their presidential primaries in 2016, perhaps we might not be here.
I’m precisely the swing voter the Democrats are courting and they insult my intelligence and life experience at every turn. It is lucky for the Democratic Party I have the ability to act in my best interest when confronted with a bad vs worst choice despite their insults.
25
@Color Me Purple "so that I can watch as the popular vote is overridden in the Democratic Party primaries by the Democratic Party giving us who we should have voted for."
When did that happen? As I recall, HRC got a lot more votes than Sanders.
1
@James Grosser You are correct except that superdelegates were added into the tallies of each state during the primaries. This misled people, such as myself, into thinking HRC was getting more than her share of the delegates from the DNC in states where she didn’t perform well with voters. Add to that a clear preference by the DNC for an establishment Democrat and the treatment of Bernie Sanders as a demagogue by the DNC (and the media) when actually, Sanders was a respected Senator, not a socialist but a social democrat similar to FDR (socialists control the means of production), and not a true political outsider like Trump. I felt early in the primaries that it was mathematically impossible for Sanders to win with the popular vote based on those misleading tallies. It was demoralizing and I lost interest in the Sanders campaign and never checked the actual outcome.
Thank you for bringing my error to my attention so I could correct it.
1
Here's an idea: let's vote on it.
5
A vicious cycle. The media focuses on the 'front runners' and mostly ignore the rest. They report on the fund raising contest. Then the polls reflect the media coverage, with the front runners reinforced for the public.
Biden is in front because of his association with Obama, our 1st black president who shines brightly compared to criminal now in office.
But where is the issue talk, not the horse race/personality/ electability talk?
What's the function of a free press in a democracy? To inform voters on the issues affecting their lives so they can vote for their interests. Else why have voting at all?
NYT---do your duty and tell us: Who is funding each candidate, and what do they expect for their investment? Otherwise the media ignores the source of corruption legalized by our Supreme Court in its supreme lie that big money in elections is 'free speech' per 1st Amendment. But it shuts out the 'free speech' of the citizen majority.
This is avoided in our media, because then Fox News will accuse it of being 'left wing, anti corporate' etc. The pattern is clear.
We the People can't afford to compete. What representation will we get for our vote, even if we do put Trump out of office?
7
I agree Biden is not without risk. But it's not like the current president is without risk. This is someone that gambles like a drunken sailor, cheats on his wife, and brags about it.
Donald Trump isn't all that well liked as a human being. His track record includes the last administration. He won't run this year so any economic surge is not long lasting.
Sorry Jamelle- no doubt you'd prefer a farther Left candidate but, in fact, Biden (as of now) is the best positioned candidate to defeat Trump. Would you be satisfied if Biden announced a one term limit for his Presidency and chose Kamala or Beto as his running mate and heir apparent?
4
NO ... NO, Mr. Biden is not electable. I like Vice-President Biden. However, in this (sad) environment of Trump and his deplorables, the only way a Democrat has a chance to 2020 election (by a wide margin) is to run a candidate that is worse than Trump, lies like Trump, has a history of bankruptcies like Trump, will sell his sole “to the devil”, like Trump and will throw anyone “under the bus” to protect him/her self, like Trump. I don’t believe I’m saying this, but sadly .... that’s the way I see it.
OK, so who is the most electable Democrat?
2
Trump is terrified of Biden for good reason -- he knows Biden appeals to Trump's same poor white rural base and will peel off just enough votes to win, if not sweep. Which is why DT went nuts over the fifefighter union endorsement last week. Only Bernie has similar appeal except he trails with black female voters. Biden has my vote. He is the most electable and he will wipe the floor with DT. The others DT will paint as socialists, which he cant really do to Biden.
2
The issues surrounding Biden's "likability" or "electability" will not affect the determination of the Democratic nominee or the presidential election.
Regardless of who becomes the frontrunner, this election turns on whether Bernie Bros will show up and vote for the actual Democratic nominee, even if he isn't their savior, or whether they will have the tantrum they had in 2016 that has cost this nation dearly.
I say "he" because there is no way a woman will be the candidate. Sexism is still very much alive among Democrats.
Some ten per cent of Bernie voters voted for Trump rather than Hillary Clinton. (https://www.npr.org/2017/08/24/545812242/1-in-10-sanders-primary-voters-ended-up-supporting-trump-survey-finds) Many others simply sat out the election. They had to have their tantrum, and thus far, they appear primed for a repeat.
And this is for only one reason. Bernie voters, disproportionately white, will really not suffer under a second term with Trump, at least as much as other Americans. They know they will never be targets of Trump's racist policies. They know their families won't be targeted by the white supremacists that Trump courted and still coddles.
In short, they didn't, and they don't think about how their reckless vote (or non-vote) would hurt many millions of other Americans. It was all about them.
America after Trump will be known as an ugly, ignorant, racist backwater. And Bernie voters are just as responsible for this as are Trump voters.
1
No way to compare H Clinton with Biden. NO WAY.
Obama's worst mistake was not blocking Hillary from
running. She forfeited "her turn" when she committed
two felony counts of Obstruction of Justice by erasing
30,000 emails pending Congressional scrutiny.
Obama should have forced her withdrawal by offering her a pardon with the cops at the door. And Hillary's prior record
had many issues.
Biden should connect with comely Camela Harris as his VP,
The All-American girl. He should limit himself to one term- with whispers that he would serve only a year or two.
The biden/Harris combo is a sure winner- and a great
promise for the future.
To compare Biden's female conduct with don con is a travesty. Guys do dumb things; but trump is beyond the pale.
And the Biden/Harris team is the answer.
1
Ok, so now let's toss Biden into the CAN'T WIN pile and who do we have left that can win?
Waiting...
Still waiting...
Exactly.
2
I’m not certain that Donald Trump won’t be re-elected regardless of whom the Democrats throw out there against him. His presidency is awash in scandal and infighting and insularity and an ignorance born of intellectual laziness that sees any problem that arises to be ignored or scorned, not addressed or at least looked at. Speaking of character only, the president has all the coloring—and perhaps the biting “charm”—of a Gila Monster. That said, 40%—at least—of the electorate support him.
The ex-vice-president enters the race weighted by age and a long career of being on the wrong side of events—some small in themselves—but telling, especially those involving African-Americans. His support for Bill Clinton’s “toss ‘em all in jail and throw away the key” massive incarceration (1994); which disaster was preceded by his plantation-type dismissal of Anita Hill (1992); and his anti-busing stance in the 1970’s. Barack Obama saw Joe Biden’s assets and found them outweighing his liabilities but how deeply thoughtful has the American electorate ever been from one election cycle to the next?
The best thing that Mr. Biden has on his side are the disparate, diverse competitors for his party’s nomination. The two blacks—Kamala Harris and Cory Booker—have no chance against Trump’s MAGA nation, which includes all the Republicans on The Hill. Pete Buttigieg and all the ladies have their unique targets that are ripe for assault in the culture wars.
Hate is strong. Trump has it in spades.
Stop with the who's electable and who is not blather. If there was one thing that 99% of the political pundits of all stripes agreed upon during the 2016 election cycle was that Donald Trump was one of the most unelectable candidates of all time.If I need to place bets today there are bookies for that. Write about the issues, which would be a service to the public, and quit trying to predict the future, a futile effort that is only done to prove the so called wisdom of the pundits.
3
I'm convinced he's not as electable has some supporters think. I just see too many similarities with both Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and John Kerry in terms of policy positions, mannerisms, and political instincts. At this rate, he won't get back the Obama voters who switched to Trump, and he won't excite enough Democratic voters to run to the polls.
If he continues to run on giving nice-sounding speeches and not the issues that got Trump elected, expect a Trump victory.
5
Apparently the 2020 election will be decided in the swings States that are politically centrist, not the most left wing States.
Biden is the most gifted and experienced politician who probably has the best chance of winning the centrist swing States which are crucial to winning the next presidential election.
It is totally irrelevant to the outcome whether the Democrats win New York State with a simple majority or a larger majority of the vote in NY.
That is the electoral system and the real world in which we actually live.
"Perhaps his electability isn’t a mirage. The point is that we don’t know. And with nearly two dozen candidates in the Democratic field, it seems premature to treat Biden as the one with the least risk."
I agree. I like Joe Biden, but I like many candidates. It's way too early to tell, and so much can happen even before the primaries, who can predict who will be hot or still in the race six months from now?
The other calculus is this terrible time in our history. We have a president fully emboldened, already sayings things like "I deserve two more years of the investigation" and freely acting like a dictator because nobody checks him.
How that plays in the tit for tat of election talk--assuming we even have elections, and if we do, how much they'll be infiltrated by the Russians--is anyone's guess.
But this much is clear: the Republican party is no longer "reasonable" or open to reason; they are all in to help Trump consolidate one-party rule.
Chew on that for awhile--Biden's "electability" is the least of our problems.
3
Let's face it. Biden is not a progressive to most of the progressive democrats. An objective analysis shows that he, like Bill Clinton, is what most of us would consider a moderate republican. This may appeal to older folks, but it isn't going to cut it with the millennials, and there is no winning without them. It's not really his age, look at Bernie's popularity.
11
We'd know for sure if the Democrats had open primaries.
If you want to court independents, how about giving them a say in who the candidate ultimately is.
5
@Jon Q There is no reason why 'independents' cannot register as Democrats or Republicans so that they can have a say in who the candidate ultimately is. They _choose_ not to do so.
1
@WZ
In my state (51% Independent), we don't have to register with either party to vote in the primaries. We just choose our ballot at the polls.
The risk you take when you allow Independent voters the opportunity to vote in primaries is that they may not choose the candidate the corrupt party brass is in the bag for. The risk you take when you deny Independent voters the opportunity to vote in primaries is that they'll feel free to decline to vote for the candidate you selected without their input in November.
Currently at 26% of the electorate, the Dem party just doesn't have the numbers anymore to do it on their own. A wiser party might try to understand why that is.
3
Generations of journalists have passed on the fallacy that Biden is the white working mans hero, but what policies has he proposed to that would improve the lives of working people of whatever kind. To promote this fallacy his proponents like to say he from Pennsylvania the quintessential working man's state when actually he left with his parents when he was 10 years old.
What he has been is a shill for the bankers who incorporate in Biden's State of Delaware. He is in fact a geographical Democrat meaning in order to succeed in politics in Delaware he had to be a democrat.
Other than going through the motion of appealing to African Americans by repeating how close he was to Obama. What does come across is that he exudes falseness.
173
Right now, my best guess is that something very like a Biden/Harris ticket gives the good guys their best shot. Assuming of course that the Languid Left bothers to show up this time.
But it’s early days yet, and no question but that Joe has some deep flaws to work on. I say let’s wait, watch the process work, and see where we go.
“This,” Biden says referring to Trump, “is not the Republican Party.”
I can't think of a better way to alienate and turn-off a historically motivated Democratic base. Look at the energy the left had in the midterms. Harnessing that energy is the key to winning, and yet here is Biden giving cover to the party that has enabled Trump every step of the way. Millions of Democrats want to vote for someone who will FIGHT. Right now, it looks like Biden isn't interested in fighting- and if he gets the nomination, don't be surprised if Democrats (particularly young ones) aren't interested in voting.
9
Whoever wins the primary is the most electable democrat. Assuming fair play.
2
@Ken
Actually, not necessarily. With the Independents vastly outnumbering both Democrats and Republicans, they may be blocked from voting in the primaries, but they get to have their say in November. Chances are they may have voted for the primary loser, but not the winner.
1
Ken. Big assumption given what happened last time
1
Biden is just Clinton 2.0 to me. Or, "Bush light" as I have seen on a meme. He is too prone to gaffes to be the nominee. But, just like in 2016, the DNC has already anointed him as the heir apparent, so the rest of us may as well sit back and observe.
I had hoped for a candidate I could donate to and campaign for, but Biden isn't that guy.
8
Mr. Biden is burdened with a history and style of politics that we can no longer afford.
Mr. Biden can rarely speak for more than a few minutes without making a major faux pas or speaking with meaningless words.
Trump would destroy--humiliate--him in any debates.
We are in need of someone with the skill to speak clearly to our challenges and needs and someone with the courage to propose policies which will reach to the core of our needs and our damaged society and environment.
That is not Mr. Biden.
4
Amen. So far, Biden's disappointed me, from his fumbled handling of Anita Hill to his almost scary idea that China poses no threat, to his folks this and folk that with no substance in between. As much as I was rooting for him to run last time around, I think he's out of step with what's needed in our country, not least, radical change to combat climate change and I'm far more impressed with I'm far more impressed with Buttigieg, Warren and Ryan, all of whom I consider to have better judgment than "voted to invade Iraq" Biden. The debates will be the ultimate test.
2
Biden has the support of the black leadership in the south. With the black vote and the not Trump vote he will win with Kamala Harris as the vice. The progressives are a small part of the electorate so they don't count. The Russians will intervene but Florida's voting rights progress will come to the rescue.
1
Boule is right in suggesting that it’s way too soon to decide the nomination. Let them duke it out so that we can see which candidate has the right stuff to unseat Trump (still the most important credential) and start reconstructing this badly broken nation.
Have any of you ever been to a safari in Africa? I've been and every time I think of the plethora of Democratic presidential candidates, I am reminded of them. The scene that always comes to my mind is that of a young gazelle that has been chased by a wild dog and fell to its fatal wishes. The vibrant killer retreated from its prey and the clan of wild dogs in waiting began to dismember the prey of their nimble junior member.
Why is Clinton not the preferred unanimous democratic presidential candidate? Are we truly wild dogs? Clinton won last time . To assure her success in the electoral college we can hire the Chinese to perform the '"trump" trick. though I hardly doubt if it will be necessary,
Lucky for us, all the democratic candidates are electable! None of them could, at this time and unlike trump, be charged with obstruction of justice. Were he not president, he'd be cuffed. The democratic candidates are more truthful, better equipped in understanding the constitution and bill of rights, and are more experienced in the needs of all of the citizens. trump prefers his rich cronies, white supremacists, professional golfers, and the "undereducated".
2
Let's face it. Someone with administrative skills will have to rebuild our government departments. Most of them have been decimated and/or degraded to a point where they barely exist. Also, they will have to rebuild relationships with other countries. This will take someone who has been around the block so to speak. Is he the most "electable"?
I don't know, but he's probably the most likely to resonate with middle ground voters and the only one who scares the current occupant, so why are we trashing him?
I am sick and tired of elderly white men telling us what to do, what to think, and what can be done. Joe is appealing, and he deserves to be forgiven for his long-ago actions, but what he did to Anita Hill, and the way he compromised with the backroom boys, is not a one-off. It is a habit. Look at how eager Republicans are to have him head up the Democrats, and ask yourself, is that what we need for the looming crisis of climate change, income inequality, loss of jobs, take news, racism, etc.?
While we're at it, Bernie's my way or the highway stuff is also not helping. I've watched my parents age, and late 70s is not a time when the mind is opening and new ideas percolating. It's the time when people get "more like themselves."
I'm with Warren all the way, but Ill take at least a half of dozen of the others, and in the end I'll take a Democrat. Just not Joe or Bernie, please please please!
For me, there are a range of candidates that have better positions,
6
I think Biden has a good chance of beating Trump. But so do many of the other candidates. A good portion of the American public will want to move on from the dumpster fire that is the Trump administration, so the Democrats have an advantage there, but let's not forget that this is a party that is adept at snatching defeat from the claws of victory.
I give no credence to the electability argument, though. I mean, take a look at who is president. His candidacy was considered a joke in 2015, and much of 2016, and yet here we are. So if anyone tells you to go with this candidate because he or she is the electable one, I humbly suggest that they don't know what they're talking about (by the way, remember Jeb!?).
Some people make the argument that the Dems must nominate a white male, lest they risk losing the election. Funnily enough, the only Democrat to have been elected president in the past twenty years has been a black man.
All this is to say that, as much as pundits like to say otherwise, no one knows anything about electability. Voters seem to respond to authenticity, but other than that, who knows.
This is what primaries are for. To compare the various candidacies and see who attracts the most votes and delegates. All you talking heads with opinions to offer are almost totally irrelevant. If you offer facts and raise appropriate questions, you become more relevant. But just your particular brand of political blather contributes next to nothing.
4
Nobody knows anything about electability. People claimed John Kerry was the most electable and he couldn’t defeat W in the midst of a very unpopular war. How about voting for somebody who is competent, who has the right ideas, and who can inspire and lead? A novel concept I know...
5
The ability to win in 2020 is the only criteria. Everything else that is important, climate change, immigration, etc is irrelevant unless a Democrat wins.
With several anti-Biden pieces penned, Mr. Bouie has opened an anti-Biden campaign. Fine, but let's look at his arguments. First, if one could draw straight analogies from Clinton to Biden about basically everything -- as he does -- then he would be right about everything. That's a red flag, signaling that he's hiding the ball rhetorically. Straight analogy is a shady way to build any historical argument. Bouie claims that Biden will lose a "large percentage" of blue-collar voters by mere analogy to Clinton 2016. That's absurd: the jury returned on 2016, and Clinton's margins collapsed among working class whites because she didn't focus on their issues or campaign where they lived, beside her more general lack of "appeal" with this demographic (not Biden's problem). Polls among these voters today also refute the writer's point. Bouie further analogizes saying both are "insiders", noting Trump will attack on the Iraq war vote, credit regulation, and mass incarceration. This starts to sound credible, but ignores that Trump is still more vulnerable on each of these, and that Biden will punch back. And especially the last, which is a proxy for racism: in what universe would Trump build black electoral momentum based on Biden's vote 30 years ago? And fairly or not, polls say Biden is getting a "pass" on this from black voters. So, sure, let's hear out all the candidates. But discounting Biden on such ridiculous arguments now is just the "circular firing squad" getting organized.
1
Assuming all the people that voted for Hillary will again vote Democratic, I just do not see how Trump is going to win again.
Trump is not going to win Michigan and Wisconsin again.
Trump has gained nothing since then.
I do not see Trump winning again, those independents will not vote for Trump again.
Baby Boomers, biggest threat to Democracy.
1
@Tommy Obeso Jr This is the thing that most people aren't seeing ... sure, Trump has his base, but that's really in the 30s (amazing enough on its own, to be sure) ... those who voted for him thinking he'd stir things up in a positive way are never going to vote for him again, nor are any of the people who voted for Clinton. I think the key is to make sure that the crazy electoral college (what a concept) maths are well worked out in advance. Assuming that is so, I don't think it much matters who the democrats put forward.
1
A number of commenters have stated that the Democratic Party (and corporate media) wish to "shove Biden down our throats" as "they" did with Hillary Clinton. Biden is betting that he represents a "mid course correction", that Trump's four years are an aberration. But columnists in this very paper (Roger Cohen the other day) write with eloquence that Trump's win and presidency really represent the culmination of failed globalist, neo-liberal policies and politics. These politics, resulting in the highest income inequality we've ever seen, are ones that Joe Biden has had a long time hand in supporting.
12
I was surprised to recently learn that my conservative Evangelical, Republican brother plans to vote for Biden. Along w my, my other newly moderate Democratic brother who lives in Dallas. My San Diego sister who served in the State Dept under Regan is casting her vote for Biden as is my formerly independent husband. Throw my dice in for Biden too, a Silicon Valley Episcopalian....quite a diverse group of people who all think Biden is our best bet to beat Trump and bring healing. He is definitely Electable!"
2
Bernie has none of Biden's baggage. He has vision and passion.
He has the policies for systemic economic, health care, child care, higher education, and the environment that we need in our current state of emergency. Trump will discredit and destroy any other nominee, as he did in 2016.
Age, gender, race, religion, and sexual orientation are irrelevant. Bernie is our FDR.
11
If he runs a Hilary Clinton-like campaign, NO! Meaning, accepting donations from the establishment in NY and Hollywood Enough of that If Biden continues to believe that Trump is an “aberration”, and makes excuses for the GOP, which he apparently feels will work with him, let’s disabuse Mr. Biden of that notion. While VP, he was unable to get President Obama to appoint a Supreme Court Judge 2) there have been, something like 50 tries to destroy the ACA 3) have launched national programs to repress voting.... and on and on.
The election platform has to be exclusively about American families, not the meritocratic looters. BTW, the New Democratic Administration -whoever wins - has to reflect the nation, not NYC.
2
Those of us who read Slate remember that this columnist spent the entire 2016 primary season cheerleading for Hillary Clinton and calling Bernie Sanders unelectable. Now the message-less, pro-establishment traits he found so endearing in Clinton he sees as a liability in Biden, as he has just enumerated in this redundant and recycled commentary that is duplicative of every basic analysis I've read on Biden's candidacy since his announcement.
The columnist is four years too late to the party. Perhaps greater awareness of unease among the body politic on his and many other Democrats part in 2016 would have led to a different outcome. Now, I fear it may be too late, and the key voters in PA, WI, etc., who might have been amenable to Sanders or even to Biden then may now be out of reach.
Regardless, I fail to see how the opinion of someone who was so utterly incorrect in 2016 can be trusted to provide any real insight today.
6
The problem with the anti-Biden arguments is that he is far more popular with black voters than any other white candidate. Right now, Biden is polling better among black voters than are Harris or Booker. Of course, if either Harris or Booker started looking plausible as candidates, that would very likely change as it did in 2008 after Obama won Iowa.
WHOEVER who gets the Democratic nomination is going to face a dirty, smearing, underhanded campaign from Trump.
Unless we find someone with absolutely nothing to be used against him or her, that risk just has to be disregarded.
1
I have been saying for months that Democrats chasing after blue collar voters who defected to Trump is a fool's errand. Those who voted for Trump are far too emotionally invested in their decision to be convinced otherwise. If Democrats are to prevail over Trump, it will happen by mobilizing younger voters -- particularly those in the 18-45 demographic. The way to do that is NOT to nominate someone whose politics are stuck in the mid '90s!
4
Thank you Ms. Bouie. Mr. Biden's video promised a restoration - presumably of the Reagan-lite sort popularized by the Clintons and Obama. Not exactly a winning message four years after voters cast Hope n' Change into the dustbin of history. Mr. Biden's real enemy is his age. He keeps up appearances, but stumbling over basic syntax gives it away. Trump's no spring chicken, but he's not quite pushing 80 either.
If Democrats write off working class whites permanently, then they've consigned themselves to be the minority party in an age of revanchist extremism. Blacks are only 13% of the population and Latinos trend Republican with increasing household income. That leaves women who don't vote Democratic in numbers to overcome the Republican advantage. If Biden beats Trump, great. But it just leaves a smarter and more industrious permutation of Trump to run against a doddering octogenarian in 2024.
4
Biden is to politics what The Gap is to clothes. The store is there, sure you can get something to fit you. But it ain’t great.
2
Who then, Jamelle? Who among the Dem 20 possesses that combination of intelligence, experience, wisdom, wit, charisma and leftist bonafides to win the nomination and then can credibly pivot to the necessary populist/centrism positions that are indisputably needed to win the general?
Biden is, by far, the best chance you've got.
Many a registered democrat are scared of what the masters might say if they put forth a true progressive.
3
I see no reason Biden will do any better in the critical states than HRH, I mean HRC. These states are Pa, Wis, and Mich. Win these and the Democrats win, lose these and they will lose. Not much else is really in play. In those states the Democrats must mobilize the young, women, progressives and minorities to vote in large numbers; it's unlikely Biden can do that. He is dismissive of progressives and totally demotivating. Forget the fantasy of winning of Texas, NC or Fla. by appealing to moderate Republicans.
2
Hopefully voters will use something other than social media to decide who to vote for. The hit job that was done on Clinton was done via Facebook and we all know how that happened now.
I would challenge assumption that those blue collar workers are shifting away from the Democratic Party. Those voters are the legacy of Reagan Democrats, that Presidents Bill Clinton and Obama won back. The vote for Sherrod Brown too.
The challenge is going to be putting together a message and a coalition that can bridge blue collar workers, progressives, and people of color while turning out the millennials. Our current candidates seems to be able to at most, get 2 or 3 out of the 4. Obama got 4 out of 4. And he got it through narrative and personality, not policy goals.
1
The one thing the America does not need is another attempt at a Grand Bargain with the Republicans. Trump is not an aberration of the Republican norm. He is the culmination of a political approach that began as far back as Nixon. In fact, if BIden had bothered to look, he would have seen the same people stealthily at work to subvert American democracy all along: The Bushes, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Bolton, Barr, Manafort, Stone...the list goes on and on. But if this roster of disrepute is not enough, then he should ponder this question. What, in this darkest hour of American democracy, are his Republican chums like Lyndsey Graham doing to protect it?
Sorry Joe, but if we have to depend on you to save democracy we're doomed.
4
Just the fact that he essentially guarantees Pennsylvania to flip back is reason enough to go with Biden. Trump turned a straight flush to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. With Biden’s profile this will not happen again. Trump is indeed an aberration and the next election will prove it.
It's tempting to reach for the safely familiar, even with all that career baggage, in selecting a standard-bearer whose principal task will be to rid the country of the trump cancer. But Joe is not who the party is now and certainly not where it's headed. The ticket will be balanced and younger. But Biden could certainly be a strong factor on the hustings and in the no-holds-barred war against the rightwing noise machine.
Sanders is the most electable. Many people know this, but not all want to accept it.... much like in 2016.
11
Among you and your twelve closest friends maybe, but some of them’re probably lying to you.
Let us not forget the Tim Kaine debacle. Much will ride on who the VP candidate is, especially if the presidential candidate is viewed as too old to be counted on for the whole term. How, for example, would a Biden/Warren ticket be viewed? Or Biden/Booker?
1
Another thing Democratic primary voters should consider is the fallibility of polling, which early in a campaign anoints a "front-runner" and three or four others "leading the pack," thereby focusing all media attention on those few and making it even harder for the rest to break through with their messages. Overall, voters get too little substantive information about the primary candidates unless they go looking for it, which few have either the time or interest to do. This is a flaw in our electoral system that should be eliminated and easily could be in the Internet age. The parties could create an election website where all party candidates post their resumes, voting records and position statements on the key issues and make video pitches directly to voters, take questions and give answers, issue statements on current events. A one-stop shopping experience for busy voters. If well-informed voters make the best decisions for our country, why not?
1
From Bernie to Biden, or from Warren to Buttigieg, the accomplishments in the first term of the Democrat elected in 2020 will be the same. Any differences will lost be in the rounding.
We are a 50:50 country and the odds against any of the progressive ideas of many of these candidates becoming reality is zero. Medicare for all? $1 trillion for fighting climate change? Free college? College debt forgiveness? Abolish ICE? Not in the first or second term and maybe not my lifetime.
The next president will move us forward in every important area, not the least of which will be common courtesy, honesty and competent governing.
We owe it to RBG to vote for any Democrat.
1
It is important we find a left of center candidate tough enough and without as much baggage as Biden or Sanders. harris, Gillebrand or mayor Pete? Let's keep an open mind.
Bouie would like the Democrats to adopt a more puritan, identity politics approach. But that's what lost Clinton the election in 2016. It's not because "she reached out to Republican voters", as Bouie suggests - that's some serious revisionist history. It was the "deplorables" comment that really hurt her, and that wasn't exactly "reaching out". It was also the conspicuous lack of mention of white/male/working class voters, in contrast to her conspicuous name dropping of all the assorted "minority" groups, that hurt her.
Bouie has the same "us righteous" versus the "deplorables" mindset as Clinton at her worst. And following his advice would probably lose the Democrats the election again.
2
Yeah, sure, any time somebody you disagree with politically gets tired of your yelling at them, the race-baiting, the lying and the deep ignorance, it’s “identity politics.” And having David Duke gush about his Trump’s finally giving white guys a fair shake, hey, pay no attention. That mean Hiwwawy was playing identity politics.
Cripes, it’s like the bucket of Kool-Aid you drank was monogrammed, “IP.”
Joe Biden (and Bernie Sanders) would have won in 2016. But we can't fight the last war. And the 2020 election will be totally different.
Why? Because there are millions of new Millennials who will be voting because they are over 18, and millions of Silent Generation and Boomer voters who will not be voting because they have died (well, in Chicago, perhaps).
The Democrats cannot afford to be the party of the past. They must be the party of the future.
3
Biden is a personification of the way things have always been, which Trump demolished. If Democrats can’t see the necessity of a new, vital and relevant approach they don’t stand a chance.
10
Biden has a well deserved reputation as a friend of the working man, which he accumulated over the decades. He is rock solid in this regard. Hillary Clinton basically ignored blue collar voters in the Mid West during the 2016 election, which was a catastrophic mistake and cost her the election. Yes, Biden is the most electable Democrat to rebuild that blue wall and win. That is not jumping to conclusions that is recognizing a reality. Too many liberal journalists reality interferes with their inborn bias that a older white man should not be at the top of the ticket because a woman or a minority would better fir their own agenda.
2
Reading these comments, I can't help but think about that classic 2016 quote from the ever-upward-failing Chuck Schumer: “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”
The GOP might be soulless ghouls, but they seem capable of changing strategies based on new information. The Dems, as much as they're better on the issues, seem committed to losing with the same strategies (and personnel!) they lost with last time.
9
I think you’ve got it right about Biden.
The candidate in the race who is least vulnerable to Trump’s style is Kamala Harris. In her very person, her character, her life experience and professional experience, she is the opposite of Trump. She’s everything he’s not. I think, if nominated, she will attract, the left and the center where most women, minorities and average working Americans are. No one is converting Trump’s base. The best strategy is for Dems to shore up their natural base and those who think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Most people want to move on from Trump, they just need a candidate who demonstrates hard work, good character and is for the people.
4
KPH. If I were Trump I would love to run against Harris. Her prosecutorial style may work well in hearings but Trump like him or not would take her apart. He wins the nasty game every time
The Hillary/Biden analogy isn't a good one, because Biden doesn't have the aroma of corruption or the public reputation for mastering pay for play at unheard of levels that Hillary had. I voted for her and I still had to hold my nose when I filled out my ballot, recognizing Trump was even worse. Biden doesn't have the condescending attitude towards non-supporters that Clinton had as well, that turned a lot of people off. Biden's negatives are age related, but is attitude and level of engagement rather than chronological age. I may not like Sander's positions, but he is a lot sharper and engaged than Biden. Biden's pitch is he will return civility to politics and he can beat Trump, which is probably true but I get a sense that the answer to every question that he is asked will have to veer through a lecture about the good old days first. Just like many previous candidates that have hit their expiration date, he looks like his was reached in 2016. He isn't the only candidate that can beat Trump in the field, there might be as many as three that could do the job if they listen to Nancy Pelosi's advice on how to position themselves. Any candidate who doesn't listen to her, will likely find they won a moral victory that enhances street cred on Rachel Madow's show, but their interviews won't be originated out of the oval office.
2
@Kevin Biden kicked off his campaign at a Comcast fundraiser. Comcast and AT&T are warring to stop net neutrality and prevent fiber deployments to much of America that needs this vital infrastructure. They have taken hundreds of billions of dollars in grants, and (aided by maps that hide the situation on the ground) most areas that the grants paid for coverage of will need additional grants to actually be served. Biden (like Pelosi, unlike many in the Democratic field) has the aroma of corruption.
3
@Nick Biden is also vulnerable for being known as the Senator from MBNA, but nothing he has done that the average voter is knowledgeable and cares about had worse optics than Hillary's big money Goldman Sachs speeches. Those Wall Street pay days really cemented her reputation and his pales in comaprison. Pelosi needs to be listened to for her political acumen on what voters will likely support, not her personal ethics. As you mentioned, her's are as bad as any other DC creature.
2
Look on the bright side, of the current Democratic candidates, only Biden has had recent conversations with Margaret Thatcher regarding President Trump, as he claimed in recent discussions with donors.
Given that Thatcher died in 2013, this is a rare ability. The Democrats should capitalize on his relationship.
7
Electable means 270 electoral college votes specifically with the states HRC won and the swing states of PA, MI, WI, NV, and some combination of FLA, AZ, NC.
Not now, not in 2012, 2016, 2018 or 2026
Electability is 270 electoral college votes in Oct/Nov 2020
I hope the D primary process selects the D candidate who can deliver this. It would be more than nice if this person is also the best D candidate. But that is still secondary, unfortunately.
2
@Lawrence
It's not enough to have any D nominee. We need the best one we can nominate. One that can pull together and actually lead without the use of the "Commandment of the Pen".
Any D nomination isn' t enough. We need someone that can gather a majority that can win with the plan that works. The process is only now begun. I like Joe Biden a lot. The problem is I liked him long ago too. I'm not ready to go left and so too many prospects are reaching beyond their grasp or their experience. More empty promises would be a failure. It's how we got here today.
It is way early to be calling the nomination. What most people are forgetting is the other two candidates who resonate with blue collar democrats on the specific issue that drove them to Trump. The issue is anti-etablishment sentiment driven by the obvious corruption of politicians by and for the financial elite. Trump campaigned on Drain the Swamp. Sanders campaigned on End Systemic Corruption. Clinton was the epitome of systemic corruption: the loathsome limousine liberal of the Democratic party. So she lost the rust belt blue collar democrats who had supported Obama. Sanders and Warren will get their support.
Biden will come to be understood as Clinton redux but with even less progressive cred. A very bad combination. Sanders will emerge as an honest and progressive version of Trump's populist promises... end the political power of the financial elite...support workers wages and jobs... better healthcare (M4A)...higher taxes on the financial elite to support policy That helps the middle class worker. That will be enough to overcome their distaste for other progressive policy Sanders promotes.
This we hold to be self evident... any corporatist Democrat will lose to Trump. Because corporatist.
4
Character counts for a lot, and Joe has a lot.
He’s also been on the right side of many issues, and would gladly pass the torch to another candidate, should see appear to be the better chance.
3
Joe Biden is Hillary Clinton in a jacket and tie--and without hair. He represents the old Democratic Party, the "establishment," the centrists, and the big donors. Perhaps if Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders all campaign for him, he can eke out a victory against Donald Trump. But I would not bet my life on it, much less the life of our republic.
32
@Chris Rasmussen
Not being inspired at this point is a safe bet. Nobody clearly shows the path out of this. I do like Joe, but I also will look for more possibilities. These nominees as a whole are pretty green with expectations. Bernie is still Bernie and still not good enough. He gets credit for being the person he started with and deserves respect even if I wouldn't vote for him today. He isn't a Democrat but pretends to be.
He wasn’t even electable 8 and 16 years ago. Nothing has changed.
If he is the future of the party, we are indeed doomed.
15
Nobody knows who is "electable." If around 80,000 votes in 3 states shifted in 2016, everyone would be going on about how great a candidate HRC was. Minus those 80K votes, she's the worst thing since toenail fungus. In light of this, it's my opinion that voters should evaluate the candidates based on issues, experience, and personal traits such as character, honesty, leadership, etc. Then, let the chips fall where they may. No litmus tests! It's nobody's "turn." And, here's the most important thing: if the Dems want to win in 2020, then all major candidates should agree that anyone who does not finish in the top 3 in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina SHOULD DROP OUT IMMEDIATELY after South Carolina. If you can't finish in the top 3 in at least 1 of those contests, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO BE PRESIDENT, and all you can do by staying in the race is to help Trump's chances of re-election.
That is all.
6
There will be a median voter, & that vote wins the election. One can appeal to the current/projected median more than one's opponent, or one can drum up more excitement from some share of the electorate & favorably shift the median.
In a race with no incumbent, this is a harder puzzle. One has to project who the opponent will be and how they stand on various issues might be somewhat unclear this far out. In 2020, the opponent is known & now has a track record. This opponent is trying to shift the median in his favor, not to widen his appeal to win the projected median. This opponent, in fact, has little hope of broadening his appeal. His strategy is, pardon the pun, set in stone.
One has to calculate the best response to this. Is it to drum up excitement in a base & hope to essentially outdo the opponent at the same approach, or or is it to take the center that the opponent has left open. Let's do some crude numbers...
Say Trump has 40% approval in battleground states & gets a 75% turnout from that group. To beat him, one would need similar excitement from 40% of voters while splitting the undecided, or 50% turnout from the 60%. Given that overall turnout is usually in the low 60s, the broad appeal approach is almost certainly more likely to win whenever the opponent has so dramatically ceded the center. This is compounded by negative partisanship - Trump has alienated so many people that he has generated plenty of excitement among Democrats.
Pick your favorite centrist.
4
@Alan actually overall turnout is usually in the mid-50s. Source: Wikipedia.
@Jason Galbraith
I grabbed my number from
https://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout
In recent elections, about 60% of the voting eligible population votes during presidential election years, and about 40% votes during midterm elections.
It is possible that one site was referring to voting age population and the other to registered voters or some similar counting difference.
Biden will make the choice for most people easy.
Do you want a return to the underperforming Obama economy or continue with the robust Trump economy?
3
While Joe Biden is a nice guy, his politics and experience suggest he’s a center-right Republican.
Biden could probably edge the country back from the Trumpian cliff where we’re now precariously perched. But I think America would be much better served by a candidate who is not Republican-lite, and who reflects the diversity in this country. Obama aside, old establishment white guys have been in power way too long.
10
@Claire Elliott "While Joe Biden is a nice guy, his politics and experience suggest he’s a center-right Republican."
Poppycock. Biden supported marriage equality before President Obama. He is pro choice and against tax cuts for the rich. I could go on, but it isn't necessary.
1
"Electability" has always struck me as a euphemism for "acceptable to major corporations," who theoretically of course don't even cast votes.
23
Biden’s electability and appeal to blue collar voters are very sketchy. He’s never come close to the nomination before and Trump talks a better game for blue collar voters.
Biden is trying to represent an urban, young and increasingly diverse non-white party. He cannot sustain his appeal to white blue collar voters, if indeed he has it, without talking down the energized, loyal voters in his party. That is a bad bargain. He will lose more than he hopes to gain.
Biden is a desperation candidate for an establishment frightened of losing power. He is the John Kerry of 2020. Remember his great electability and his three Purple Hearts? How’d that work out?
3
I realize this is an Opinion piece, but if the media really doesn't want to jump to conclusions, then perhaps they should stop the daily assault on Biden's candidacy—not a day goes by without a column like this, seemingly focused on just this one candidate, not the 20+ others.
He's the front runner by a wide margin based on what actual voters think, not what the media would like the narrative to be. Maybe if we don't try to do to Biden what was done to HRC—character assassination by innuendo—the public can focus on who they want running the country, not who a handful of journalists would prefer.
7
@Art123
Media has an incentive to make contests look closer than they are to keep the clicks coming and elevate their own influence - and to avoid being "wrong" when a long shot comes in.
Even with its effect on 2016, apparently this habit persists.
2
Once again Mr. Bouie nails it. Uncle Joe is a great guy, but I do not think he is up to this run. Right in the middle of the Anita Hill flap, he goes on The View (as hospitable a venue as there is for a Democrat) knowing full-well he would be asked about it, but he could not be bothered to craft a practiced response in advance. And so it has always been with Joe: unprepared and inarticulate. Trump pretends to be worried about Joe's appeal, but when Joe takes him behind the barn, Trump will punch out his lights. Meanwhile there are 20 other candidates. Let's not anoint anyone just yet. Had we thought it through last time, we might have nominated someone who could have won and spared us the reality-show that is the Trump Administration.
3
Clinton did more to shoot herself in the foot in her campaign more than anything else. Calling people "deplorable," acting like she was due a coronation to be the first woman president after the first African-American president, throwing Bernie Sanders' campaign under the bus, all those emails, Bill back in the White House, and so on. She did give it a good shot, despite all this, and it is more due to the design of the Electoral College that Trump, rather than she, got to move into the White House.
Biden, on the other hand, I don't think has the attitude of presumption. He may not be perfect, who is, really? But the fact that he can connect with people may well persuade those who voted for Trump as a "lesser of the evils" over Clinton, to vote for him. As Biden played VP to Obama, Kamala Harris as VP to Biden may well be a ticket that could appeal across enough of the spectrum to keep both the "identity" wing and "moderate" wing of the Democrats together and avoid the tension and more probable election loss if they go too hard left with a candidate.
3
All of us should go with our gut. Once we have a candidate he/she will become extremely electable as long as all of us UNITE unite behind him/her.
This election is too important to take it personally if your candidate is not nominated. I think some would be better than others, but please stay focused on the only goal that counts in 2020 - defeating Trump.
2
The Democrats' position is comparable to the position of the Repubs in 2016. So many candidates that the one that can put together a solid 25 per cent early is going to drive out everyone else so that, in the end, there will be a candidate only a small minority really feel strongly about. It worked for Trump because Clinton was a weak candidate who threw votes to her opposition. Trump does that as well but with the vagaries of the electoral college 20 candidates could well be the undoing of the Democrats and the country if Trump ekes out another win.
@Horace the Dem primary is different from Rep primary, When Trump got became first with 15 percent he would get all the delegates in the state, dems have to work hard to get a lot of delegates because its given proportional to the votes they get.
As a Democrat, I think there are plenty of decent-enough candidates to be had. I will vote for whichever candidate wins the nomination, because any of them would be better than Donald Trump. I don't expect that the nominee will represent my every wish.
To me, the keys to the Democrats winning the presidency are clear (of course, the devil is in the details). All Democrats need to vote, and vote for the Democratic candidate. If, like last election, Democratic voters sit out or vote for fringe candidates because their feelings were hurt during the nomination process, then Trump will win again. A candidate reasonably palatable to all, combined with a ferocious get-out-the-vote effort, will be the ticket for the Dems.
4
I think it's high time for the us all that are opposed to Trump for whatever our reasons, is to recognize in extremely clear and crystal terms, what his re-election means most to his most ardent supporters.
Trump isn't just pro-guns, anti-abortion, pro-rightleaning justices, anti-taxes on the wealthy, and of course anti-emigrant.
Trump is playing the "white power" card and frankly, based on simple mathematics, most everyone knows this is not a sustainable voter base. He has done a brilliant job disguising MAWA (Make America White Again) under the red-hat of MAGA.
But make no mistake Mr. Bouie, Trump, his base, fellow Republicans, his media allies and his financial backers recognize that this is the fight of their lifetime - maintaining white power. I am not suggesting that they are white supremacists or Neo-Nazis, I am simply saying that in light of changing demographics, most of these people fear the loss of power and know that gerrymandering and the Electoral College can't save them forever.
So the question one must ask is who among the existing candidates can best calm us about these inevitable changes? Who can persuade enough of the critical Electoral College electorate that they're vote counts too? Who is presenting the message of unification and not just policy?
Vice President Joesph Biden may not be the perfect candidate, but he is the best prepared to take on the ugliness that is unspoken in this most important election. And that is our soul which is at risk.
77
@It Is Time! Who is presenting the message of unification and not just policy? From my reading, all of the Democratic candidates are doing that.
18
@It Is Time!
"Vice President Joesph Biden may not be the perfect candidate, but he is the best prepared to take on the ugliness that is unspoken in this most important election."
I see this assertion frequently. I have yet to see any sort of supporting evidence. It seems to be a point of faith, not grounded in anything other than wishful thinking about a world that doesn't exist anymore, if it ever did.
54
@It Is Time! "Vice President Joesph Biden may not be the perfect candidate, but he is the best prepared to take on the ugliness that is unspoken in this most important election." He isn't, though. That's the whole problem. In some ways he's arguably much less prepared to take on the ugliness than many of the other candidates. His entire record shrieks of being conciliatory to the Right, which is a big reason we're in this mess now.
46
Biden may not be the most electable, but he knows how to push Trump's buttons which is good enough for right now.
The contrast between the two men is remarkable. One has governance experience, poise, and intelligence. Trump's only skill, in sharp contrast, is how well he avoids conviction. His tariff war has been an unmitigated disaster costing farmers (like me) a fortune and robbing America of a major export.
Biden also seems to relate to Joe Public which means he can educate Trump supporters how the lack of healthcare is bad for them. One would think that's empirically obvious but Trump's base retention suggested these folks haven't connected the dots. Perhaps Joe can accomplish the education Trump supporters are clearly lacking.
3
Perhaps you can organize your fellow farmers to help defeat Trump. Just as with paid blue collar workers, it seems these groups too often vote against their own interests.
Editor’s note: This comment has been anonymized in accordance with applicable law(s).
1
We have to run on policy, not on Trump. Running against Trump, as atrocious as he is by every measure, still makes the election all about him. That's a bad place to be, to say the least.
Personally, I'm not interested in a Democratic president who would burn up their political capital after the election trying to make impossible inroads with extremist saboteurs in the GOP, as opposed to pushing hard and passing progressive policies. Just my two cents.
195
@Dominic
All of these “progressive” policies are so costly that their newly minted inroads with suburban women will evaporate faster than they can be replaced with rural and blue collar workers. It’s just math. My wife couldn’t be more liberal- and she’d either vote for Trump (unlikely) or simply not at all if half of the current Democrat field was the nominee.
2
@Dominic What does "pushing hard and passing progresive policies" mean to you if it's not making some attempt at bipartisanship? If Dems control such majorities that GOP outreach is not needed, then it wouldn't be a "hard push" to get progressive policies through, right?
2
@Rob Sounds like you and/or your wife don't know the meaning of "liberal." You do know Trump signed a $1 trillion tax cut – that was costly to people in NYC who aren't billionaires? Sit out the next election and expect more of the same. At least if a progressive policy costs money, you will get something for it.
6
I have many reservations about Biden, but none about his character. Yes, he has made mistakes, but they were never to enrich himself and he believes in the rule of law. Moreover, he has acknowledged his mistakes. He believes in equal rights for all, for example he pushed Obama to recognize gay marriage as a basic right. And in my opinion, Biden actually grew as a person while serving as vice president, which is not something we can say about the man who followed him as vice president. We can do much worse than Joe Biden for president, and unfortunately we have. Let's let the primary process take its course.
8
Maybe the blue collar voters are gone for good you say. Ask around, they want to be welcomed back. After all they were tossed out. As Tom Frank argued blue collar workers were systematically excluded by the Democratic Party elite, well before Trump in favor of a coalition of women, minorities and college educated whites, well, some of them.
And this is by my counting the sixth consecutive anti-Biden article from the Times.
It should also be noted that in a wide and divers field of candidates, Biden is leading all others in his appeal to non-white voters.
3
Mr. Biden is riding on his name recognition at the moment.
I suspect that he will fall by the wayside after the debates, as it has happened to him in the past.
6
To quote this very paper:
"Ms. Warren, Ms. Gillibrand, Ms. Harris and Ms. Klobuchar can all claim an interesting distinction: They have never lost an election in their political careers. All of the most prominent male Democratic candidates, including Mr. Biden, Mr. Buttigieg, Mr. O’Rourke, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, have lost at least one."
Emphasis on "AT LEAST one".
7
I'm part of that baby boomer group. We are still active, often healthy, care about politics. But sometimes I feel like we are having a hard time letting go. Just like some of us have had a hard time letting go of our own kids. It feels like the younger generation needs to pry our fingers off the controls of governance. It's time for the new generation to figure it. My own job was getting too hard at 65. I think being president may be harder? And the old guys are fine, I like them, but, fellow boomers, it's time to let go.
15
@JK
Well, that's understandable. Your generation couldn't turn thirty without an identity crisis.
Thanks for making this article about identity politics. It's the most obvious physical difference between Biden and Clinton, but arguably among the least important when it comes to ability to do the job. And since Trump has zero ability to do the job and zero interest in even waking up on time to do the job, shouldn't we be focusing on job performance? Not idiotic indicators like the economy, but things that normal people/leaders are held accountable for? Showing up for work. Hiring competent people. Low turnover. Successfully implementing a project. Like almost anything.
98
@Nick Bushes
Yeah, but Trump's so-called base doesn't care about any of that. Biden can peal these people off of Trump by being himself, a steady, elderly, white guy. I have spoken to some of these voters - they find Trump amusing. They don't care about his work habits or his ethics. Biden can beat him by a frontal assault on the middle - that's how American elections have always been won.
And all this hot air about candidates who've never lost a race, where are they from? California, New York, Minnesota, Massachusetts? A national election is different by kind and the surest way to lose one is to proudly proclaim affiliation with a liberal state. Biden isn't the favorite son of Delaware - he transcends all that - he's a national candidate. It's time to get behind the only candidate who not only can beat Trump, but carry the midwest.
11
@Nick Bushes
Yes, all pretty important. Too bad this election is not about that stuff.
1
@Nick Bushes Well since voters repeatedly and consistently vote on identity seems reasonable to me. Sure we should be focusing on policy and performance should should should. We hear this every elections and its just not how people ultimately vote. Dems have allowed Republicans to make 'identity politics' into a dirty word while they have been winning elections based on that very thing.
Right now Biden does seem most electable, and he could be even more if he commits to a one year Presidency with a strong VP to take the next TWO terms.
That would help to get balanced again.
But nothing will move if Kentuckians re elect McConnell. Also, of course Dems need both houses.
5
Biden, so far, offers a dialogue with Republicans, an apology to Anita Hill, and vague slogan-like campaign promises ... oh yeah, and he's anti-Trump. It's all vapor. I'm not compromising with my vote. I'm for Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders is the candidate that offers ideas that are actually beneficial to middle-class voters.
5
@Jim....Ideas are great, but they amount to nothing if you can't get elected. A Jewish Socialist from Vermont who is on record saying good thins about Castro, can't win the Midwest. And you may recall that Sanders ran poorly against Clinton in the Southern primaries, which is an indication that he will have trouble with the critical African/American and Hispanic voters. Better to endorse his ideas and back a candidate who can win.
3
@W.A. Spitzer Thank you for your ideas and you bring up good, challenging points. I understand the concern that a Democrat has to appeal to the Mid-West etc, to beat Trump, but I think Sanders can appeal to those voters, given a chance. And if you saw it, Sanders was brilliant on the FOX Town Hall giving merit to the point he speaks well to the middle class. I think Biden's Hilary-like rhetoric will fail in the Mid-West and that said, some Mid-West Republicans will vote Republican, no matter what. Trump is proof of that. The time for urgent, real change is now and I’m not compromising my beliefs or sacrificing my vote. I enjoyed your post- Thanks again for writing and have a great day.
I like Joe Biden's mannerisms. So, initially, before you know what he stands (or more accurately DOES NOT stand for), you think he could represent something that he does not. Joe Biden is kind of an every man. He is not particularly smart. He has an avuncular classic politician style that people who are not paying attention may assume makes him a man of the people.
However, like Clinton-- who was a woman (and who I initially assumed cared about other people besides herself--or at least would be more likely to relative to your typical man), those initial impressions quickly fade. It is not 2008 anymore. Obama has kind of used up the trick. I thought he was far more progressive than he was simply because you would expect that the average black man would be more sympathetic with the qualms of the less affluent than the average white man. However, he was most certainly not. Obama also had very little record so progressives did not know what to expect.
People want people who will fight for them. Biden has a long-record of not fighting for the people and as soon as that goes under the microscope, he is finished. He is a historically bad debater for a presidential candidate and that was before he was in his late 70s. You add that to the fact that his record is horrible even on things as fundamental to the party as Civil Rights, and you get an unraveling candidacy ready for implosion.
Warren should be able to take him out and capitalize on his many many weaknesses.
4
@nickgregor all signals showed that Obama was not a "Progressive". His law school classmates, especially his law review classmates always said he gave cred and treated the conservatives with the same as the liberals. Sorry you missed that in 2008.
2
@nickgregor...."Warren should be able to take him out and capitalize on his many many weaknesses."....Now if only Warren wasn't a liberal from Massachusetts.
I’m with Joe and I’ll tell you why. Joe Biden can elicit voter affirmation across economic, educational, party, geographical, and racial/ethnic lines. Does he have weak points? Of he does, he has a record. In reviewing that record, review in the context of the time that record was recorded. Social, moral, cultural, and political mores have shifted much since those records were set. And Joe moved forward with them, he has always been willing to be wrong and to be educated. He’s a work in process, as are we all.
I like, admire, and support some of his opponents, especially Harris, Buttigieg, and other, younger candidates.
But I think Joe is the Democratic winner and the national winner for 2020 because he wants to push us along to a more enlightened future and because he wants to accomplish this without hurting adversaries as much as to provide goodwill, smart planning, and opportunity to all Americans . And, face it, Joe is a decent human being who knows the value of love through personal losses too tender to ignore, tolerance, and empathy. While at the same, he would be a cognizant keeper of the FISC, holding agencies and Congress to task.
I’m surprised, but I’m with Joe! Age is a limit we impose upon each other. Joe’s a moonshot to decency in American politics and government.
13
@Schimsa - Very well said and convincing
@Schimsa If one is still a "work in progress" at age 76, there is little reason to believe that age 77 is going to be where it all comes together.
2
Let's not forget that the polls and the pundits were wrong every step of the way in 2016. They said Trump would peak at 25%, they said Hillary won every debate.
Yes, working class voters are important, but when I see Biden only appear at union events where they are there because they are told to be there, I don't see the kind of love Obama had.
Hillary was the safe choice, who played it safe and lost.
I disliked her, and begrudgingly voted for her, but I admired her at the same time, and I can't say that for Biden who I dislike even more, and respect even less. Does anyone think he can stand up to daily attacks from Trump, or could get through debates with someone willing to play dirty and rip him up?
6
Trump appealed to the problems of blue collar voters faced in 2016. His “solutions” were snake oil and insincere, but appealing to the desperate. Biden is sincere, but he, too, harkens back to a past needs to be put behind us.
We need a candidate that looks forward and recognizes that Republicans and corporatism are two of the problems facing us, and not something to be embraced. There are blue collar voters who recognize this and will embrace a candidate who will work for the changes needed for the better life promised by Trump but which he was never able or interested in delivering.
4
The idea that Biden can win because of his appeal to "working class white" makes no sense. Guys like Biden are a big part of the reason the democratic party has lost the working class.
This reminds me of how in 2016 the party was claiming Hillary had huge support with black democrats... then when the actual election rolled around, surprise surprise, the numbers were way down. Hillary even somehow managed to get fewer hispanic voters.
The reality is that the democratic "old guard" was the group that destroyed the party's relationship with the working class by moving towards conservative economic policy in the 80's and 90's. Biden is not the person to reverse this trend.
15
As someone who votes in every election and who cannot have their vote taken for granted, there are 3 or 4 democrats I would consider voting for. Biden is not one of them.
3
I like Joe Biden but he did vote for the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002, knowing full well that Junior’s case for the invasion was built on lies.
He contributed to the current fear-stained state of affairs, not to mention the atrocious innocent Iraqi civilian death toll and the introduction of al-Qaeda to Iraq, all for the sake of political survival, I’m guessing.
Hillary Clinton did the same as far as I can tell. I hope they at least felt conflicted if not downright ashamed at some point for their complicity.
And then there were those who voted the right and conscientious way, the ones that make you proud to call yourself an American. It’s one of those litmus tests I just can’t forget.
7
@David
The Russians stole the election from HRC, the most qualified candidate in history. We now have proof. Trump is a Russian puppet. Sanders is a Russian puppet who spent his honeymoon in Communist Russia. The Communist threat requires eternal vigilance.
As much of an embarrassment as Trump is to this country, a strong economy tends to favor incumbents.
As long as there is the veneer of a good economy--whether or not the economy is as good as is being claimed is certainly debatable, especially if you dig deeper than the official statistics--into 2020, he'll have a credible chance of winning re-election.
If Trump's administration was not so rife with ineptitude and corruption he would have a very good chance, instead of merely a credible one, at being re-elected.
While it is not game over for the Democratic Party in 2020, it would behoove them not to take anything for granted.
4
Biden will be eaten alive in the debates as he has a bad habit of putting his foot in his mouth when unscripted for any length of time. That and the considerable baggage from his voting record which is center-right in a party that is centrist to center-left.
The voters in 2020 will be very different from those who elected Obama in 2008 and re-elected him in 2012. The largest single generational group eligible to vote next year will be the Millennials - not Baby Boomers- and they have been shaking up the consumer markets as they come into their prime as adults. They are as different from previous generations as the Boomers were from those before them- ask anyone trying to market to them.
Right now, polling means nothing as most are not paying attention and it usually reflects name recognition more than anything. It should also be noted that the polls used to tout Biden's appeal to voters was taken with landline telephones- few people below 50 even have one of them.
Joe will be watching the inaugural events from spectator seats or on TV. He will not get the nomination or win the election.
17
1. You're right. We can't know now. And we don't have to. There's plenty of time to let it play out, see how good these candidates are, see if Biden really has the creativity and stamina that'll be necessary, etc., etc.
2. It's possible we still won't be able to determine the most electable candidate next spring. That *will* be a problem -- and it's happened before, repeatedly. But there's nothing we can do about it now.
3. While we can't tell who's "most" electable, we do have some potentially useful information about who may be "least" electable. As one example, if someone's consistently running dead even or behind Trump while others are running 8-10 points ahead, that's a meaningful warning sign. (Sadly, I'm thinking of my hero, Sen. Warren.) And overall polling attitudes about "socialism" in the coming months might help us evaluate Sen. Sanders' candidacy a bit more objectively.
4. Every candidate needs to take the Indivisible pledge, go beyond it, and put it front and center in their campaign: "If I don't win, I'll fight tooth and nail every day for whoever does."
5. Candidates shouldn't be tempted to undercut a Spring 2020 frontrunner by legitimizing whatever lies and misrepresentations Trump, the GOP, James O'Keefe, Jacob Wohl, Jerome Corsi, Roger Stone, Alex Jones, et al will already be spreading by then. Nor should they be tempted to undercut the Democratic Party by misrepresenting their own losses as proof that the 2020 process is rigged. It is not.
11
Not enough regular voters get behind a candidate because they estimate that candidate to be the "most electable". Normal people don't do that - it is reserved for pundits and voracious news readers like us. Normal voters vote for someone they judge to be the best to their way of thinking, not because they don't really care for the candidate but think others do. Hillary proved that (and JEB, and many others). One of these Democratic candidates will excite average people, and then we should all work our tails off to get him or her elected. If Joe can light that fire, great. I don't think someone lights it by being the most triangulated of all, but by finding the magic combination of passion, rhetoric, strategy, timing and an opponent they can beat. No coronations!
10
Biden looks old and muddled every time I see him. I don't think he is really up to the task. Nice guy, but when he gets on stage with others, I do not think he will come across very well. He is an OLD old-style politician. Unlike Sanders who is very energetic and quick on his fee, I think Biden has lost his mojo. And whoever goes up against Trump is going to need all the mojo they can get.
10
@Dem-A-Dog Sanders quick on his feet? He's a walking stump speech.
It's months to go before the first primary, and I haven't yet seen or heard enough to make win, place and show selections. But to compare this election to four years ago doesn't make sense. Clinton won by 3 million popular votes. The Dems this year don't necessarily have to swing huge swaths of voters, but to change the few key states. Also, we've now had going-on-four-years of this presidency. If that hasn't changed a number of those minds, we're simply in worse shape than we thought and perhaps it doesn't matter who we put up as a candidate. I'd say, roll the dice with a Warren or Sanders, as if Democrat voters have had any reason to change their votes since 2016. Frankly, I'd prefer Warren - or Harris or Gillibrand - because the one coalition that seemed to matter in 2016 was female voters. But here's a novel idea. Let's vote for policy, sound intent and good character. And if we fail . . . we've really failed. And I mean the country, not the Democratic party.
5
@Steve I agree there are several impressive female candidates; I find Klobuchar more impressive than Gillibrand.
3
@Steve the country has definitively failed. No minds will be changed.
“This,” Biden says referring to Trump, “is not the Republican Party.”
---
If anything should be disqualifying in the Trump era, it should be statements like this. This kind of thinking only makes sense in a world where both parties are actually committed to figuring out solutions that will serve the public interest, even if it takes meeting in the middle to accomplish shared goals. The Republicans, however, are little more than a party of ringwraiths whose only loyalty is to their Dark Lord. They have been showing us, day in and day out, for literal YEARS at this point, that this is exactly who they are. Their souls are sold. The handful who seemed to have loyalty to anything above Trump are gone or signaled they won't be running for reelection. Because they know they can't win.
Biden's not even fighting the *last* battle; this is the kind of hollow conventional wisdom appeal to bipartisanship that stopped working roughly one day after Obama was elected, if not well before. His tepid centrism is exciting to approximately nobody other than his FIRE funders -- and reflects a worldview any thinking person had to realize is utterly bankrupt years ago -- and the entire strategy seems to be running a milquetoast nostalgia candidate and just waiting for Trump to lose the thing. We already tried that. It's HOW WE GOT TRUMP in the first place, for God's sake.
120
@Shirley0401
Couldn't agree more. It's not clear what a winning playbook looks like in an era when the GOP has terminally rot, their only aim is to preserve their power no matter the cost to the country, and their lies & hypocrisy are completely unconstrained by shame or any sense of responsibility. But it definitely does NOT include nostalgic entreaties to bipartisanship. Anyone who's been paying attention for the last 25 years knows this won't work. We need to fight and win on our terms.
8
@Shirley0401 Trump is the Republican party personified. The Republican party of Biden's memory is long gone. It's now a Fascist death cult.
12
I find the progressives' distaste with electability and compromise actually really elitist, undemocratic, and, ironically, regressive. Electability means that most Americans will agree with his views and like him as a candidate. I don't see anything wrong with that or why one smaller group needs to push its ideology on the rest of the country.
We're one country and no one is better than anyone else. A president should be a president for all Americans and listen to different viewpoints. That's something to aspire to, not run away from.
17
@I Even if one accepts your characterization of electability, there is a big problem here: only one side has given a toss about it in the last 40 years. As a result, the Republicans get to keep going farther and farther to the right to appeal to the base that they've ginned up past the point of return, and Democrats keep moving to the right as they try to chase the center, no matter where the center ends up.
In other words, this strategy has been pulling the country slowly to the right for decades, and that is not something to aspire to. It's amounts to a way to excuse the fact that establishment Democrats just happen to align with the very same donor groups that they share with Republican candidates. We've been set up to lose for too long. Let's actually try defending an voting on progressive ideas for once, and not the fear of Republicans.
3
@DataCrusader Most people, including most democrats, do not agree with the policy proposals of the progressive wing of the democratic party (even if they are concerned with meaningfully addressing climate change, health care, etc.).
So when you say "we" you're alluding to a relatively small group of people, certainly a minority of people within the country as a whole.
I think that kind of "I know better than you" attitude is what turns off many voters who would otherwise vote democratic.
1
@G I think it's bizarre that I'm reading an ostensible democrat describe to me that it's a center right country and that it's our job and preference on the left to own the center of it.
Regardless of whether or not a tally of your personal positions on policy would align you more with the progressives you've learned to hate in the past two years more than the centrists that you profess to support, there is a left in the country, and our youth appear to be leaning heavily in that direction. They're also thoroughly disenchanted with the status quo that has gotten the country further and further to the right. The writing has been on the wall for some time now.
1
I agree it's important not to jump to conclusions. But the important thing to understand here is that this election is about a small group of voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, and Florida. Everybody who voted in the last election will vote again in 2020, and most will vote the same way. In order to avoid a repeat of 2016, Democrats need to flip a few hundred thousand voters in these swing states, and Biden might well the candidate most likely to do that.
Nominating a more progressive “democratic socialist” would be more exciting to party activists who tend to dominate primary elections. Nominating a women and/or a person of color would be a positive in places like California and New York. But the election is going to turn on whether the Democrat appeals to enough people in Michigan and Pennsylvania to flip those states and win the Electoral College.
It's always tough to unseat an incumbent president when the economy is strong, and right now people are very entrenched in their positions. But the surest route to that victory this time might well be by nominating a well-liked, experienced white male who appeals to moderate swing state voters who went for Trump last time but now dislike him and long for a return to stability.
The only other viable option would be to nominate someone who can motivate a much larger turnout of swing state Democrats, and I don’t think that person has emerged yet.
9
@Joe M. You're right about the swing states; I wonder whether Klobuchar has better prospects than Biden at winning those states. She has far less baggage.
5
Giuliani and Rubio were the front-runners at this point in the 2012 and 2016 primary election cycles.
Trump hadn't even announced yet.
14
Running on these platforms of "health care, ballot access, immigration and infrastructure" feels small for this moment. As a regular Democrat, I'm looking for a candidate who is honest, compassionate, wicked smart, incredibly interested in others and their ideas, and funny. Also, they need to bring a dog or cat to the White House. On the national level, i'm looking for someone who understands that the planet's issues aren't best tackled by individuals looking out for themselves but by groups of smart and dedicated individuals and nations and that person will have the vision and the smarts to light that path for all of us to follow.
6
I'm an aging Boomer, third generation Democrat and am at best luke warm about Biden. I have been hoping that the nomination process in the Democratic Party would feature policy and not become a slug fest. I'd like to see a strong, focused, left of center without being extreme party platform that invites support from the sub-groups that make up the party. We need an economy that is fair with graduated taxes, access to health care and education for all, and improved infrastructure and international co-operation. I'd love to see a woman and person of color run as President an Vice President. It's too early for me to narrow my support to any of those running, but I am hopeful that time, and the nomination process will clarify the strengths of all those running. And we do need leaders who are self aware enough to know and own their own weaknesses! Unlike what we have now.....
10
The pools are telling us that if the election were held today we'd be choosing between President Trump and either Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders. All three are of course old white guys in their 70s. President Trump was the oldest president ever to take office, but both these other two would trump him, so to speak.
The Republicans seem to lack much of a scenario to dump President Trump for 2020, but as someone in my late 60s myself let me say that this is just too old, and I think as this whole thing plays out we'll see some of the wonderful younger candidates emerge. For example, as people get to know Senator Kamala Harris she will begin rising through the list. And this won't be much different from how we got stuck with President Trump; he initially faced a dozen other competitors, and he kind of picked them off one-by-one.
7
@Jerry Schulz
doesn't matter Jerry. Biden can will. Harris should be VP. She can be groomed for the top spot.
I like them all (dems), but I'm especially impressed with Kamala Harris and her ability to dig deep into issues, and ask pointed and important questions as seen during Barr's testimony. She is a forward thinker as are many of the democratic candidates. That so many are running to win the presidency shows the desire to help our country move toward reality, truth, legality, and civility.
Mayor Pete, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris - all ready to serve.
17
Electability does matter, but let's keep in mind how presidents are chosen. If the popular vote were the key, Hillary Clinton would be in office now. But the Electoral College is what we're stuck with for the foreseeable future. Only about a dozen states are actually up for grabs in 2020; how about we nominate someone who has proven, preferably more than once, that they can carry a competitive state?
Amy Klobuchar fits the bill. She appeals to midwestern voters who are unsure about the Democratic Party. She lacks the baggage that Biden brings to the race (and if you think yelling at some staff members is "too much baggage" to run against Donald Trump, think again).
I'll vote for the Democratic nominee, period. I haven't decided who my top pick in the primaries is (plenty of time - let's see the debates). Besides Klobuchar, I'm considering Warren, Harris, Booker, Inslee, & Buttigieg. If Biden is the nominee, I'll happily campaign for him; I just don't think he's the best nominee we could put forward.
16
Amy is a republican lite. She does not support her constituents, but she does support corporations. Amy continually votes against the issues that keep MN unpolluted, such as promoting and allowing copper sulfide mining in the pristine BWCA and is a strong supporter of removing ESA protection from the Gray Wolf. Amy does not care about what the majority of her constituents want, such as these environmental issues listed above, but she does care about the wishes of her big donors. She has really been a disappointment to us.
1
@Baxter Jones - I liked Klobuchar until I heard that weird story about her eating her salad with her comb. Sounded like a tantrum, something an angry person would do to grab attention. Weird!
1
The paradox to me is that Biden doesn't even really represent the constituencies he polls best with. Among older active Democrats, he stands out for being more racist than the average. Among "union" politicians, he's advocated on behalf of corporations time and again. I don't get his appeal other than the name recognition. Do Democrats really want the nineteen eighties back? That should not be enough to convince Democrats to vote for him, and if it is, it bodes about as poorly for meaningful change as does another Trump term.
33
@Jeremiah Crotser
Even forgiving his disgusting performance with Anita Hill, he's my least appealing candidate. The country needs new energy, new visions, new hope for the future, and he represents none of these. I'm 75, and I'd rather have ripe, old Bernie Sanders for new, youthful directions. But I'm pulling for Elizabeth Warren, who actually is promoting policies and needed programs.
12
Great comment succinctly put. Biden is in front because the financial elite of the party want him in front. It won't last. Neither will the anti-Sanders "sentiment" being promoted by the establishment/financial elite of the party.
The primary goal, as it were, of the Democratic party establishment/financial elite is to maintain their control of the party machinery and policy. Sanders and Warren directly threaten that control with their "crazy talk" about ending systemic corruption and doing what voters actually support.
The establishment are willing, again, to risk losing to Trump rather than lose their power to control the party. Hence Biden's manufactured popularity. They actually did pretty well by Trump's policy. Another 4 years of radical extreme wealth favoritism isn't all that daunting to them.
4
@thcmavn Me too!
Electability is very much in the eye of the beholder. I fear also that it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Think what you like now, and, by the way, the jury is still out. But electability is based on who the electorate wants. If the Democrats unify in wanting any candidate, then that candidate will be very electable. In the meantime, the candidate you deride now may be the one you vote for in 2020, so don’t make damaged goods out of them during the primary. Fight for your candidate, not against the others.
6
Biden is likely the only candidate among the Democrats that can unite the center, which, despite popular press, is still alive and kicking. We may be a much more polarized nation today than 25 years ago, but there are still many Americans who are just left or right of center. Those folks are up for grabs in 2020. I don't think that Bernie or Warren, in particular, have platforms that will garner enough popular support once they have to put together a national campaign. Neither seems willing to compromise on their view of the world and won't accept that many Americans like their taxes low and their employee sponsored health care.
7
@John
I've spent a decent amount of time talking to people about healthcare here in the old USA, and I have yet to speak to a real actual person who enjoys having their healthcare tied to their employer in any way, shape, or form. When I introduce the term "job lock" into the conversation, a surprising percentage of people tell me about a job they stayed in well past when they would have liked to have left, if not for the effect on their insurance.
I suspect that such people as there are who respond to survey questions with "like their employee sponsored healthcare" do so because they've been conditioned by the USA's shameful atmosphere of precariousness and constant low-level desperation that they won't allow themselves to think bigger. And if -- especially if the survey is designed, as many are, to achieve a particular end -- the alternative to employee sponsored healthcare (defined explicitly or not) is no healthcare at all, it's hard to blame them for voting for the devil they know.
5
@Shirley0401
It's getting worse, apparently.
"One in six Americans who get insurance through their jobs say they’ve had to make “difficult sacrifices” to pay for healthcare in the last year, including cutting back on food, moving in with friends or family, or taking extra jobs. And one in five say healthcare costs have eaten up all or most of their savings."
https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-health-insurance-medical-bills-20190502-story.html
Over time, I've made a few comments about the "spite" motive of a lot of the Trumpers. Unfortunately, I'm seeing it for Dem's, but it is against each other. Demanding purity, ideological or otherwise, is a sure road to defeat.
24
@chairmanj
I don't see demands of ideological purity so much as a record of integrity. Unless we have a candidate with such a record who will act on the climate issue and who can inspire people to the polls and win big, it doesn't matter who else runs.
6
@chairmanj
That's a strange conclusion to draw, because it seems to be a winning strategy for the GOP. Witness how quickly those who won't fall in line are expelled or shamed back into lockstep.
If by "purity," you mean consistently favoring the interests of actual human beings, the environment, justice -- rather than searching out the middle ground that will appease both workers (just enough, and never more) while not alienating hedge funders and insurance company execs, I think we might be headed for another Trump term (and low turnout election).
3
@chairmanj
What you see is people saying, "What is the point of winning if we don't try to change anything after we have won?"
A recent poll (Washington Post, I believe) that did NOT provide respondents with a list of names and allowed respondents to answer "undecided" showed that Biden had only a small lead over the rest of the pack. What he has is a lot of is name recognition.
Thankfully, most voters are still undecided. Let's take our time to decide who is the best candidate to defeat Trump and move us forward.
5
The only electability question that matters is who can win the industrial Midwest and Florida. Joe Biden has been and is a friend to working people and unions. Just like Sherrod Brown beat back the Republican tide in Ohio in 2018, Joe Biden will deliver the union vote and carry the Midwest in 2020.
18
@bhs Joe Biden is not Sherrod Brown!
1
Why are these the terms of engagement? Let the candidates campaign, debate, make appearances in which they can answer questions and flesh out ideas. Then vote! Why talk now about who is electable? The oversaturation of our culture by the meaningless concept of "marketing" has us focussing on electability instead of the election.
31
If we look at the 2020 POTUS election with an eye towards the past, then neither Biden nor Sanders has a chance of upsetting the incumbent. Simply, they appear to be too similar and in Biden's case, he is closest to GOP principles than most of his DNC rivals. Unthroning POTUS or his party has required the most opposite candidate when compared to the current POTUS.
Perhaps Mayor Pete and or a female or a candidate of color has the best chance because they appear (and are beyond appearance) so different than #45.
3
@james
Sorry, "with an eye toward the past"? Have a mayor ever won a presidential election? NO. Has a woman? N0. Has a candidate of color? Yes. And the blacklash was Trump. Democracy is on the line. We need to go with experience and someone who will take the fight to Trump.
4
@MGP Calvin Coolidge and Grover Cleveland were former mayors - not very recent - but certainly not never.
1
Electability is important, but could we also please think about the ability to govern and to repair the damage Trump has done to our country internally and to its standing internationally. Biden addressed this head on in his statement declaring his candidacy, and I've yet to see any of the other Democrats in the race do so. And I do believe he is best placed to be heard by the voters in the heartland who actually gave Trump his majority in the Electoral College.
3
You know Ben Franklin's quote about those who give up liberty for safety deserve neither? I feel like it applies to the Dems these days... they keep looking for someone "safe" and "electable" instead of going for gold and following their dreams. The Republicans, to their credit, saw the hunger for change and allowed their "unsafe" candidate to proceed to the generals... where he won.
Can Democrats wake up and not blindly repeat 2016? Pick a real change candidate the electorate get excited about, eg Buttigieg, Sanders, etc.
48
@Mag K
Unlikely that either one could win a national election where every vote counts and you have to court the center. Democrats are in real danger of losing because they are unwilling to accept incremental gain. You want it all and you want it now. That's exactly the kind of campaign Trump wants to run against.
3
@John The media misportrays how elections are won and lost. They are not won by getting someone to vote for one candidate over the other; few people had difficulty deciding between Clinton and Trump. Rather, elections are won by getting people inclined to vote for a candidate to turn out and vote. People had to decide between voting for Clinton and not voting, and too many chose to stay home because they did not see a difference between the two candidates.
The solution is to nominate a candidate who will turn out the electorate, not a candidate who might peel voters away from Trump. That is what Obama succeeded in doing, and what Clinton did not succeed in.
5
@Mag K
Sorry. Buttigieg is a mayor for God's sake. Sanders would never win. Elections should be boring, sorry. The problem with having to get excited about an election leads people to vote for charismatic or populist candidates. We need an institutionalist to rebuild trust in government.
1
It is not that Joe Biden is too old. It is that he looks and acts out of it. He umms and ahhhs between each word and is just not compelling to listen to. No coherent or cohesive message. And. His rallies so far have been sparsely attended. Is this really the candidate to go against Trump who fills arenas? Dems can do a lot better. Though so far, not sure yet who it will be.
281
@Carol Colitti Levine
Carol - Biden has two previous failed presidential tries. He has a lengthy track record of supporting Big Banks, wars, and he tells jokes about his own tendency to make gaffes. I suspect he'll have a tough time on the campaign trail.
52
@Carol Colitti Levine I wouldn't say Trump fills arenas — that's the message he wants us to believe and we come to accept it over time as the lies are repeated. Yes people attend his rallies, but people attend other candidates events too in greater numbers — those candidates just don't boast and lie about it.
4
@Visible
Actually, it was/is Bernie Sanders who has been filling arenas. My daughter attended one for him in Portland, Oregon, in 2016 and I believe there were 25,000 people there.
27
The most electable candidate is Kamala Harris.
Nobody else in the field has her combination of charm, smarts, toughness, likeability, depth and experience.
8
@Luciano
You're wrong. She is not most "electable". But she is the most promising. Biden should pick her for VP. The woman needs experience in the executive branch. Then sure.
1
@Luciano: Warren does.
1
He is certainly the one that does the least trafficking in identity politics, immigration, and fantasies such as the New Green Deal that, if anything, is likely to push Trump inclined voters closer to Trump. Not sure that makes him electable, big mouth and all.
24
@Groovygeek
Bingo. That’s what the pundits are not getting. It’s also why Pete Buttigieg is surging.
I’m a lifelong Democrat. I have no problem with traditional liberals or even progressives who are able to have a good faith discussion/debate about issues.
However, there has been a recent troubling upgrade to the left that focuses on outrage , identity, and virtue signaling at the expense of dialogue and factual problem solving.
Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg are not part of this new illiberal group, which is why they have the most appeal.
16
@Cass: Historically, there have always been identity politics. It's just that the identity that was politically rewarded and represented was that of the white male. Yet this wasn't seen as problematic; it was seen as 'normal' (which is how privilege words--it's the assumed natural default). White man have always benefited from the identity politics of other white males. It's easy to ignore this fact and only see 'identity politics' as problematic when women, people of color and the LGBTQ community expect to be heard, respected, and represented.
26
@Anne Is that an argument for why identity politics is a good thing? Characteristics that add diversity to the political leadership are assets for a candidate, but should not be the only or primary factor. It's like to work for the post office you take a test, and if you are a veteran you get an extra five points. Making such characteristics necessary, in the way being a white male was necessary in the bad old days, however, is identity politics and it's bad now as it was bad then. It's divisive when you have a party that is a coalition of identity groups, so unlike the bad old days it's now also politically inadvisable.
3
What happened to Hillary in 2016 us very instructive here. In terms of things like actual policies, experience, and knowledge of the workings of government, she should have been seen as an excellent candidate. Yet, after the quirks of the Electoral College allowed Trump do be declared the "winner" in spite of a nearly 3 million popular vote margin for Hillary, all we were hearing was what a terrible candidate she had been. People didn't seem to realize just how much of the negative image attached to Hillary had been created by a literally decades long campaign to discredit her, waged by right wing opponents. So many investigations about so many issues (how many on Benghazi alone?) resulted in a mountain of innuendo, but nothing to actually pin on her. Still, the constant insinuations had their effect. And the media, with its hyperventilating over Hillary's emails, while the many issues with Trump were reported, but not with nearly the same focus, just made it worse.
6
@Debra Petersen You are living in a fantasy world. I am a registered Democrat and I abstained in 2016 (and would do so again if Hillary were running again). There are many women I would happily vote for. There was always plenty to pin on Hillary (perhaps you've forgotten about her slander against Monica Lewinsky and others complaining about her husband) and the stench of corruption (look at the Clinton Foundation boondoggle) surrounds both she and Bill.
1
@Debra Petersen lets not forget the other elephant in the room - good old American misogyny, which has been summarily dismissed as not being one of the biggest reasons for her loss. But it was. Misogyny is a huge problem in this country.
1
@skeptic Actually, I think you're proving my point. You say you "abstained" in 2016. Does that mean you didn't vote at all, or that you voted for some obscure candidate that had no chance to win? In either case, the effect was contributing to the election of Trump. Hillary can be criticized for her response to Bill's accusers. EVERY candidate can be criticized for something. But with everything there was against Trump, you thought it was better to indirectly contribute to his election than to vote for her?
Ad for the Clinton Foundation. it actually does a lot of good work and receives high marks from the organizations that rate charities.
The most electable person for the most demanding job on the planet Earth is many things but 78 years old on inauguration day isn't one of them
56
I like Kamala Harris. The rest are not electable, especially our Congressman Seth Moulton who enjoys bottom place in the pack and the worst reputation in his home State.
1
When I hear, "I love [candidate who's not Biden], but he/she can't win," I want to scream. "Electability" is meaningless -- let's stop talking about it and speculating about it. Vote for the candidate you like best, without trying to factor in the opinions of pundits & everyone else. And then, let's hope, the best candidate will be nominated, and she will win!
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@Bubbles Exactly! The focus on "electability", in addition to being identity politics in disguise, is a fear-based strategy which will give us a "meh" candidate no one is excited about. Let's each choose the candidate we feel most passionate about, based on her policies and experience, and then get behind that candidate in a robust primary. If we go about it in this way, we will end up with the candidate most likely to beat trump, and most likely to go on to become a successful president, whoever that may be.
33
@Bubbles Considering the threat Trump and his minions pose to our democracy, electability is everything.
17
@Bubbles
And all the while keeping in mind that the ultimate goal here should be to beat Trump. It won't matter if you or I think "she's" the best candidate - what matters is that the majority of Americans believe "she's" the best candidate. If you or I don't completely agree with what "she" says and don't vote, what good will it do in the end?
12
Yes, Biden is reaching out to moderate Republicans, moderate Democrats and independents. But that is where is similarities with Clinton ends. Progressives such as Mr. Bouie would have us think that driving in the moderate lane (where nearly all of the actual voters exist) is some Clintonian “mistake”. Don’t buy it for a minute. The writer forgets that Biden brings strengthens that Clinton lacked. Clinton’s reserved and wonkish personality made her a difficult person for many voters to relate to. Plus she was the object of decades of right-wing smear campaigns as well as insane and spiteful Bernie Bros. Conspiracy theories. In contrast, Biden exudes an affable, happy warrior persona and his flaws are not even 1/100s of the current White House occupant. Plus, let’s face it, a significant part of the voters still harbor anti-female biases. So, please stop with the false equivalencies. Progressives live in mostly deep blue states and they have, so far, done a very poor job of persuading the rest of the hundred of millions of voters of the validity of their platforms. And until progressives stop relying on excessive white voter guilt-tripping and overly emotional reactivity, the one who appeals to the moderates, Independents and Republican-lite in the key electoral swing states will be the only ones to beat Trump.
6
The test is who is the most likely to carry WI, MI, PA and FL, and maybe AZ. And I don’t think it will be a far left progressive.
38
@Doug, Michael Bennet could fit your criteria, or Pete Buttigieg. I'd prefer Warren, but misogyny is still strong in this country.
@Doug this far left trope shows the effect of 65 years of right side propaganda. Sanders and to a lesser extent Warren represent the FDR new deal, what was the heart of the Democrat party in the 1950s. Medicare for all polls at 70 per cent. How are these far left wing ideas and persons.
Not once has Sanders or Warren called for nationalization of any industry, except for health care.
We are the only Western industrial nation without national health care. Even those hard working self reliant Germans have national health care.
Please re-examine your thinking about this issue of what is "a far left progressive."
I do not want people's parents and children dying so Donald Trump, Jeff Bezo's and everyone (including corporation) making over $10,000,000.00 a year are paying no taxes.
us army 1969-1971/california jd
How far left is 'far' left? Americans of all stripes have stated in polls that they want solutions for healthcare and climate change. Is this too far left for you? Why is it that our two biggest needs as a people are considered radical?
Like much commentary on the elections, this piece rests on the faulty premise that white people without a college education can automatically be counted as "blue collar" or "working class." The polls that supposedly show Trump enjoying high levels of white working class support all use education rather than income or occupation as a measure of class.
The problem with this is that there are a whole bunch of comparatively well-paying jobs -- usually technical or supervisory -- in this country that don't require a college education and these jobs are almost entirely monopolized by white men. White guys in these positions have been voting Republican since Reagan. Racism works in their immediate interest and they know it.
But there are also a lot of lower-paid white workers. Many of them are at least a little racist too, seeing those higher paid no-college jobs as their own best hope. But many others appreciate that their own circumstances are like those of many poor people of color. When they vote, they vote for the Democrats, but they only vote when the Democrats seem to be offering meaningful change. They turned out to the polls for Obama, but not for Gore, Kerry or Clinton.
Democrats win when overall turnout is high and overall turnout is high when people who normally don't vote decide to vote and those people are mainly poor and working class people of all colors. The most electable Democrat in 2020 will be the one who speaks most directly to the concerns of that strata.
16
Actually, why does Joe Biden have to worry so much? What does Trump do all day? Not much.
Trump will tweet something along the lines of: “You don’t understand (fill in the blank), Sleepy Joe, because you have never been president, having run two pathetically failing campaigns. Sad.” How will Biden handle it? How about with: “I’ve been in the Oval Office far more than you have, because I don’t spend all my time fuming over the TV, tweeting about it, calling people names, and playing golf at my resort on the taxpayers’ dime. Oh, and I don’t cheat on my wife, either.” This is the sort of necessary response that was sorely lacking back in 2016.
Biden has name recognition and carries Obama's aura. This will help him siphon off campaign money from other candidates. And Anita Hill, busing desegregation, corporate money, and political gaffes? He is up by 30 points in the polls! Trump has fundamentally changed the political landscape.
Still, is Biden the golden ticket? Despite Trump's approval rating, I suspect many voters knew we had made a terrible mistake the day after the last presidential election. They will come through in 2020. But they need a Democratic candidate they can at least stomach.
That candidate will be the one who can punch Trump in the face hardest, over and over again, and get away with it. That person will be the winner.
5
Trump ran and won as an outsider who will drain the swamp and bring back working class jobs. As far as I can tell the Democrats have already decided on running the same campaign as 2016 in Biden, a centrist Washington insider, beholden to monied interests, and a anybody but Trump campaign.
Isn't that how we define insanity?
7
There's such a long way to go before the first primary. It is interesting to note that Elizabeth Warren's policy-heavy campaign is starting to gain some traction.
Why don't Democrats and liberal commentators take the time to let the candidates roll out their policies before engaging in these tedious takedowns of each other based on personalities?
I know progressives fear Biden becoming a runaway train, but they should relax a little.
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The biggest challenge Mr. Biden will face is the pointed spear from the progressives within his own part, who have repeatedly failed to appreciate how conservative America is once you get past the two coasts.
At this point a steadying hand would be a welcome relief, but the progressives will only be satisfied with someone Trump can demonize as a crazy liberal, or worse, a socialist. If we get saddled with another four years of Trump, it will be because intransigent progressives insisted on snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Biden is by no means perfect, but his candidacy cannot be compared to Hilary’s. He is a much stronger campaigner and has much deeper inroads into working class culture than Ms. Clinton ever did.
Republicans remain in lockstep with a candidate who is hugely vulnerable and deeply unpopular. As a former Republican, I think they are demented, but we in the so-called “Democratic coalition” could all learn something from their unity.
First and foremost, the GOP wants to win — and that should be our goal, too. Please, do not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
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Biden's biggest problem is his age. He's too old, as is Sanders and the guy currently in office.
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Thanks Jamelle
I know it's a knee-jerk reaction, but every time I look at and listen to Joe, he brings back vivid memories of the Bill and Hillery show.
He would bring a needed sense of normalcy to the conversation we're going to have and he would probably be an excellent neighbor, but I'm looking for a leader from the next generation.
He would be an important asset for the country if he helped us find that leader.
3
Biden, the ultimate insider, and an easy job for Trump.
'Run Joe Run'.
Donald Trump.
1
Mobilize the voters who elected Obama and victory is yours. How hard can that be?
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@David Anderson
Very hard, which is why Clinton lost. She thought she could count on Obama turnout. She was wrong.
You're living in a fantasy if you think a knight in shining armor is going to save us. There is no magical woman, person of color, or any other "other" who is going to save us. You know what will? Us, together, working hard to oust Trump.
Stop this inanity of identity politics. For the love of God, stop trying to further divide us.
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Only if he makes it to the finish line without kicking too many in the DNC race with pointed verbal gaffes.
Biden cannot win without the ACTIVE, get out the vote, support of women, and specifically, black women. We will never forget what he did to Anita Hill.
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@Vicki Fine. Get your revenge. Hope you like Donald.
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@Vicki
And we won't forget what she attempted to do to Clarence Thomas.
"...if the election were held today..."
...tomorrow, or the next day, it wouldn't matter because...
...it's 18 months away.
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I wouldn't try to compare 2016 to 2020. People were suckers - "fool me once,"etc. That's over. And surely pundits have learned their lesson on statistical polling. It is utterly impossible to collect a good sample over the phone, etc. In the final analysis, it's entirely up to the electorate. Plato was correct 2400 years ago: if the electorate is poorly educated, The Republic will fail. "Poorly educated" covers a lot of ground. Ideology is a big part of it and few understand how that works. Easy marks for the con. There is where real danger lies. I had a German student in my ESL class some years ago. Extremely bright, well educated - in her 40s. We talked about the whole Hitler phenomenon. She said, "Americans are extremely vulnerable - the same sort of thing could happen here."
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Biden is important because he takes the shine off of Bernie Sanders. Biden's most glaring weakness, his age, is even worse for Bernie. So, the younger candidates in the race (Harris would be my choice) are free to make age an issue without making it strictly about Bernie. That should keep Bernie's more toxic supporters from being as fully triggered as they otherwise would be.
Hopefully, Biden's polling is also showing the left wing of the party that they don't have the level of influence they imagine, and they need not to overplay their hand. If the Democrats nominate a moderate, then whether or not Trump gets another term will be up to the far left.
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Just look up “electable” in the Ashtabula & Scranton Wonder Bread dictionary: the first definition is ‘an old white guy with good hair and a life insurance salesman’s smile.’ The second definition is ‘and he better not be an East Coast Jewish Socialist.’
So, to answer your question... yes, it would appear Biden’s the one. And frankly, given the alternative, does it really matter who’s ‘the one’? Run a pastrami sandwich for President for all I care. The sandwich at least would do no harm. Ol’ Mister Pastrami has got my vote.
I will take just about anything but the malevolent, mendacious, amoral sociopath currently occupying the Oval Office - not to mention his downright creepy, corrupt, self-dealing entourage.
The sooner Stephen Miller and his ilk are drop-kicked out of Washington, the better. Miller should be put back on the tramp steamer his great-grandparents came in on, and deported back to the shtetl just as they left it, with the clothes on his back and a few shekels in his pocket. Mr. Miller can live with his own cruel immigration policies. The overwhelming majority of us reject them and everything else he and Mr. Trump stand for.
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@chambolle
Joe Biden has 'good hair'?
I'd hate to see what bad hair looks like.
@chambolle Is it really necessary to talk about Miller's religion in your dream world of "overwhelming majority" supporting the Democrat effective open borders concept.
@skeptic Yes, in fact it is necessary to talk about Miller's religion; because Miller, of all people, ought to understand what drives people to come to the United States fleeing poverty and persecution and seeking asylum. Miller, of all people, ought to understand that had his Jewish family been turned away at the border, he likely never would have been born.
My father came here in the 1930s fleeing the Holocaust - and lived while most of his extended European family perished. He understood; and as his child I understand. What's wrong with Miller and his ilk? What black hole is at the core of their being that they refuse to understand?
Right now Biden seems to me just as "electable" as Hillary Clinton. Like Sec. Clinton he's an establishment, centrist Wall Street candidate with lots of baggage, especially with women after his unwillingness to "apologize" to Anita Hill. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the other day that the Democrats need to nominate a "left of center" candidate and I agree. That's not Joe Biden and that's not Bernie Sanders--both leading the field by considerable margins in the early polls. Unfortunately, there are so many now running that we may never find the one who's the most electable given the need for funding and the early primaries that may eliminate them. Instead, we now have two candidates in Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, who I backed in 2016 but not now, who represent the extremes of the party (if you assume Bernie is a Democrat). That's a recipe for disaster like 2016 when Hillary refused to pick a progressive running mate and unite the party. People still want the change they didn't get from Trump, but "Medicare for All" is too extreme when universal health can be more easily achieved, and and Joe Biden's history makes him unlikely to move to the left to gain the support of the new vocal and vigorous progressive wing of the party. I'm left asking: Where's Sherrod Brown when we really need him--a Democrat who knows how to win in a crucial Midwest swing state and is the real deal on being pro-labor and is left of center?
3
All I can say is, thank you Jamelle Bouie.
1
@Terro O’Brien
All I can say is thank you, @Terro for thanking Jamelle Bouie. I give thanks for your courageous thanking. We need more of these important acts of bravery in this dangerous age of Trump.
Triple thank you's to you both.
2
Never mind....Democrat or the so called GOP now corrupted byTrump...and those who have all corrupted the former GOP..
Never mind what political party: We need a return to our
principles which govern our nation: We need a man or a woman
who is HONORABLE....not corrupted by campaign financing;
or unconstitutional premises.
I suggest William F. Weld....a real Republican who is fiscally
conservative and open minded....He was the most fiscally
conservative Governor of Massachusetts.....so how about it
How about Weld....He is waiting to take on Trump in the
New Hampshire primaries.....and I hope he trounces Trump
and others follow Weld's good example...look him up OK ???
All the articles about the Democratic candidates seem to focus on topics like "electability." I'm not seeing much in the way of articles on the policies of candidates--like health care, infrastructure, environment, education, and why we we are spending so much money to help Saudi Arabia commit genocide in Yemen.
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@Martha Shelley
You DO NOT ask about policy! Not for two more years do you ask about policy.
Right now you need to stay laser-focused on what is important about the candidates: their gender, their race, their willingness to embrace socialism (the cool kind) and their self-loathing (if they have too be white).
Eyes on the prize, @ Martha- c'mon!
I am not sure I am a Bernie supporter just yet, but if the DNC did not unfairly swing it for Hillary, which is pretty widely known, Bernie would have likely won the nomination and beat Trump.
I just hope the DNC lets voters decide who should be their nominee this go around.
9
It is very, very interesting and telling that Mr. Bouie neglects to mention that Biden is currently winning polls among non-white Democrats.
It's a little strange to focus so much on his appeal to blue collar whites when he is the clearly the first choice of people of color.
4
@Paul So did Clinton and then she lost
1
Hallelujah NYT thank you for publishing this article. I am afraid we will be watching the 2016 Hillary train wreck all over again with the anointed Democratic nominee Biden, who of course is the most electable candidate! Everyone takes this as gospel because that is what the media/Democratic establishment/corporate establishment (via lobbyist, big business, big banking $$$ which of course is speech!) is telling us ad nauseam. We saw how attacking Trump and not putting forth an aggressive progressive platform condemned Hillary to being seen as an empty shell that is just the anti-Trump. Hardly inspiring. Looking at Biden I see Hillary 2.0...I don't hear any grand ideas to ignite the enthusiasm of the country...kinda like with Hillary. Do we really want to go down this road again, with even MORE at stake? We need a dedicated, trustworthy, enthusiastic leader who will inspire the country, who has made it his life's work to fight for the 99%: Bernie.
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Google is everyone's friend.
I invite all interested parties to research Biden's disturbing history of groping little girls, in public and on camera.
If this translates into electability, we are in a profoundly dark place as a nation.
Parents everywhere are cautioned to keep such "electable" people away from their children.
2
Biden does not, unlike Hillary Clinton, have thirty years of right wing faux investigations and libel to cope with.He also does not have to cope with gender bias and an F.B.I. official who will dramatically announce he is opening another investigation into the misuse of classified documents a week before, assuming he gets the nomination for his party, his run for the presidency.
6
A large portion of the electorate that has been energized in the face of Trump's presidency will rue the nomination of Biden as our standard bearer. We will vote for whatever poor damaged soul emerges from the next twenty months of primary mud fights and the scorched-earth policies of the general campaign, because we must. But we will know that even if Biden triumphs, our democracy will continue to skate on thinning ice, our economy will continue to withhold its benefits from most of us, our environment will continue its downward slide toward catastrophe. What will beat Trump is daring, radical change that poses credible and irresistible solutions for the existential crises we face, in employment, education, and the environment.
5
For as long as the Democratic tail is wagging the Democratic dog into identity politics, radical climate change responses, and wealth redistribution, a dismaying number of Democrats are going to be joining MAGA voters to reject anything resembling an alternative to smashing up government. So if you're talking about Joe Biden's potential support, well, there's that.
8
Biden's record makes him a long shot at best and most likely a loser. Democrats need a candidate with a good record of integrity, especially in standing up to corporate influence on the climate issue. More than that, unless they have a candidate that can motivate voters to the polls and win by an unstealable margin of votes, this will be a repeat of 2016. That candidate is not Biden.
5
Yes, let's see if Trump wants to pursue his "foreign corruption scandal" line of Biden criticism. After all, the Trump administration was established through foreign corruption, and it continues to operate with blatant conflicts of interest that involve his foreign business interests.
2
We need a Democrat to win , and yes I do think Biden
is the most electable. His peers routinely vote, unlike everyone else.
2
Mr. Bouie, how to succeed in nominating Joe Biden for the Democratic presidential nominee, smiling and not crying. (Baltimore nearly took off this reader's head when I ventured earlier that a familiar statesman is necessary to the Public eye to get the ball rolling. Unprecedented, it might serve us well to focus strongly on the choice of his running mate in the position of vice-president).
In the best of all worlds, my choice would be Stacey Abrams who is not running in this race. The Field is too large to begin with, but Pete Buttiglieg stands out for the next presidency in the above role for this voter, as of now, but whether Trump's base will accept the gay factor is another matter.
The base is composed of evangelicals, and those down on their fortune, laced with some rich supporters of our president, possibly a few foreign outsiders.
We have little time to dilly-dally and the hour is growing dire. All presidential elections and its nominees, with few exceptions, carry a risk-factor in reaching the (now tarnished) White House.
Biden would be well suited and reasoned to take the thorny crown from our 45th representative, but either way, we should be preparing for an uphill battle in regaining some national sense and stability.
We can do it and let us keep moving.
2
@Miss Ley
I wouldn't mind at all seeing a Biden/Abrams ticket.
Let's get 'er done!
1
Obama’s popularity poll numbers are 1 point lower than Trump’s according to the most recent Gallop Poll at this point in his first term. If the economy and unemployment numbers remain steady, there will be a landslide victory. The Democrats will do anything they can to slow Trump’s momentum. Imagine, Democrats only hope of winning involves our economy to fail. They will do anything they can to destroy the progress Americans have made during the past 28 months.
11
@Jay The key difference is that Obama's popularity has been much higher (up to 67%) and Trump's has *never* been higher. Through good times and bad his popularity has never made it above 46%.
America has for the most part made up its mind about Trump. It's just a matter of who shows up to vote, not what America thinks of Trump.
4
@Jay
Your argument that the economy would be otherwise if almost anyone else were president, that it is Trump's "momentum" that has carried the day.
This strikes me as a bad argument at best only because the economic trend preexisted Trump.
1
@Jay People like you conveniently ignore several things. First of all, the economy has been on a steady upward trajectory for the past 90+ months. Has Trump been President for that long? No. Yet, you'd rather cut off your right hand than give Obama the credit that he clearly deserves. Second, the economy may still be at full employment, but who's it really working for? You still have people having to work 2-3 jobs just to make ends meet, and factories are still closing. Didn't Trump say he'd stop factories from being outsourced, and/or bring those jobs back? He lied.
2
He should pick Eric Swalwell for his running mate.
Or he should be Eric Swalwell's running mate.
Make the announcement soon, so the others will drop out before damaging them.
(Go away, Bernie, Elizabeth, etc.)
The Democrats need to quit putting up "old school" politicians and go for new blood. Biden will crash the party, just like Clinton. Why folks feel that he is so "electable" is a puzzle to me. His touchy-feely ways along with his conservative leanings make him the LAST candidate they would want to push. If the DNC gives him the "Superdelegates" (What a crime THAT is) and make him their man, Trump will have another 4 years...
60
@David Furthermore, in obsessively going after the "white working-class" vote, Democrats risk completely neglecting the need to fire up the base. Black voters, Latinos, college students, etc by and large won't vote GOP, but they WILL stay home. If black cities like Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Detroit, etc had voted in larger numbers in 2016, Hillary would be president right now.
2
He has a 30 point lead . But of course that was a poll of 250 registered Democrats.
3
Jackson, the excluded people under 50!
Wanted: an American President who is not a stooge for Putin or Kim. That fits Biden and many others in the field.
3
Most electable = older white guy who looks like our other presidents.
If he's the last man standing, I'll vote for him. But I hope Warren is the last woman standing.
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@Anne
Same. She's my vote in the primaries.
11
@Anne If the Democratic Party continue to shift to the far left, it will sharply elevate Trump's prospects for 2020. New York City political beliefs are not the center of the American voter universe.
3
@Anne, all the other theories aside, I firmly believe Elizabeth Warren is the top candidate that truly has the benefit of US Citizens as her top priority.
12
Biden fails to recognize that America today is a very different country than the America he grew up in and represented. His ideas belong with the historic America not the modern reality of what the country has become. I don't know why anyone outside the plutocracy would want to elect him.
48
@Tom Yup...it takes a certain type of arrogance to assume that the only "real" Americans, or hard-working ones are blue-collar whites who live in the Midwest or the South.
Yes, he is. In fact, he may be the only one.
1
I am so ready for the younger generation to takeover...and it is time for a woman.
23
@Jeany
What woman would win in Indiana?
i once found myself in small claims court, seeking compensation for something that has nothing to do with my comment.
what does have something to do with the article is what the judge said that day, "i've found most litigants want to be proven right and their other wrong, not reach a compromise."
My gut tells me that Mr. Biden is the one democrat running that knows the art of compromise.
5
@john clagett: Every time we compromise the right moves further right and drags the center with them.
7
Since Biden does not support Medicare for All, he should step aside. He clearly does not get that even with Obamacare we are bleeding to death from exorbitant monthly premiums, high co-pays, and partially or non-compensated medical bills. He can live in the past if he chooses, but the Democratic Party is moving forward. In case he has not noticed, there is no shortage of candidates to chose from.
114
@me
You must be young. Every single Republican’s life goal is to dismantle Medicaid, Social Security & Medicare. If you are still willing to take proven liars at their word and vote for liars who claim they won’t work towards their lifetime goal, then you will get the government you deserve.
In a word, no.
I'd argue that he's among the least electable. I don't think he's going inspire anyone looking for change to actually come out to vote.
Remember Jeb Bush? He looks like a firecracker compared to Biden.
127
So we should run a candidate who does not stand for racial or gender equality? The D's cannot nominate such a candidate, nor should they. Biden stands out in the current field as the least radical candidate, thus the most acceptable to the independent voters in the center. The best Democratic chance is to run Biden and pair him with a minority vice-presidential candidate. Past elections show that minorities will come out in greater numbers when a minority candidate is on the ticket.
2
@Disillusioned
Your thesis is objectively false. Trump won in 2016 with a plurality of registered independent voters.
1
@D. Cassidy I am not saying Biden will win a plurality of independent voters. Just that he is the D candidate with the greatest appeal to that segment of the electorate.
This opinion is somewhat misleading in regards to the favorability of Hillary Clinton. As indicated, she was very popular during President Obama's first term. However, at a year and half out of the general election (May 2015 ~ the exact amount of time left until the 2020 general) her favorability was already underwater (47.7% unfavorable to 46.4% favorable). The fact that this dip occurred before any primary ballots were cast was concerning. This is not the case at all with Biden. I think suggesting similar nationwide favorability ratings, prior to direct challenges from Trump, between Clinton and Biden is ill founded. Most of Trump's work in sinking Clinton's favorability was taken care of before they squared off. He will have more work to do with Biden.
https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating
7