China and Russia are in South America while Trump is whining about immigration from South America. He is missing the big picture and weakening our standing in the Americas. With all his advisors he just is not smart enough to get it. What kind of America will your kids live in?
1
People forget the lessons of WWII. Not saying that as a war issue, but as a lesson in production. We didn't win WWII because of superior technology, at least until the introduction of nuclear weapons. America won WWII because it could out-manufacture the opponent, on both fronts. China has 6 times our population and as taken over as the dominant manufacturing country in the world. That anybody thinks they have China over a barrel, well ,they should think deeper...
3
Blue collars best fear a president Biden as more jobs are sure to flow out of the U.S. if he is elected. Is China paying him somehow to claim they are not a competitor to the U.S.?
1
This article, and Trump, seems to think the Chinese have no options other than to be bullied or to accept crippling tariffs.
This also has to be read in conjunction with Trump's unilateral decision to cripple the Iran oil industry where China is its biggest customer. This is leading to further costs to the Chinese economy.
The Chinese are a proud people readying themselves to be significant players in the world. Face is important not only to the leaders but to everyday Chinese who are very patriotic.
The Chinese hold hundreds of billions in US bonds. If they choose to sell them it would cause financial chaos. If they choose merely not to bid on new issues the market would spiral.
The Chinese could also just stop shipping cell phones, computers and electronic parts. Yes, it would hurt their economy but it would quickly cripple the US.
The Chinese history is full of suffering that is unimaginable in the US. The Chinese people and politicians are much tougher and resilient than the US. They, as a nation, are willing to do whatever it takes to maintain face and their rightful place in the world.
And let us not forget that most historians trace the start of WWII to US policies that tried to deprive Japan of needed raw materials.
The Chinese are not afraid to suffer and are in a position to cripple the US both financially and by withholding key goods.
Threatening to cripple the Chinese economy is not without grave risk to America.
1
Every Administration since George Bush Sr's has mentioned how disgusted they are with the Chinese Communist government's proclivity to not only undervalue their exports to the US in effort to decrease agreed upon international tariffs but to try and blackmail Western company into turning over proprietory and technical information over to them as the price of doing business in China.
Now circa 2018-2019, with the Xi government's naked aggression against it's smaller neighbors over territorial rights for free passage in the South China seas, and its blatant hacking of both military and corporate targets in the US and around the world, we are expected to just continue to play nice? If there is only one thing that I think the Trumpians are doing right and far, far out distancing the Democrats in, its their willingness to twist the Dragon's tail and telling them, "Enough of this stuff".
4
We need to Tariff over $900 Billion dollars on China. China has been strategically setting up a Scheme to Steal other nations wealth through pirating the great nations such as Russia, United States, Canada, all of Europe. Just America only China owes its very existence to the great nation. The world should CLAW BACK SOME MONEY CHINA STOLE....
2
Failure of our election system, the infamous Electoral College, gave us Trump as the Booby Prize. Our inaction to tackle this flawed system could potentially reward us with four more years of this juvenile delinquent. We sadly got what we deserved.
1
America is a nation of gullible fools.
The trade agreement is signed and sealed. By his actions he is creating an opportunity to claim that his 'last minute' threats forced China to accept HIS demands.
Yet another one of his typically pathetic attempts to show you all what a tough man he is.
5
last week: Trump calls his buddies and his boys, says Hey I'm gonna make a big announcement, lets make some big money.
last week: flurry of buying and shorting
this week: big announcement sends world markets tumbling
Please tell me that this sort of activity is being tracked by someone reliable. It's bad enough knowing its all a another desperate distraction but even worse if the big distractor is profitting from it.
7
Thank you for saying what I have started thinking. Now we hear Mnuchin won't release Trump's taxes even though he's legally required to.
2
Trump is a lump of dog mess on the sidewalk in China. So, China will not capitulate for no other reason than the legal wheels turn very slowly. Everything in China is doubling every ten years and their global markets are robust regardless and home grown technology is exploding because of STEM graduates in China (exceeding the US). Trump is already a lame duck President in the scheme of time from an Asian perspective.
1
If only he would button his coat, and appear to be a head of state!
2
Other than Lou Dobbs, does Trump know where he gets his policy opinions from?
2
I wish the NYT would look into whether Trump and his cronies are profiting off the stock market swings that occur every time he makes tweets like the one he made today.
6
Before long, we are going to be going to war with china or either russia
Trump has an illiterate child's understanding of trade.
He tweets: "With China we lose 500 billion dollars on trade".
No. We don't LOSE it, we BUY 500 billion dollars of the cheap products on which the entire American way of life depends.
He tweets: "For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results".
No. China has not payed a single cent in tariffs. The tariffs are paid by American importers. They are a massive tax on American consumers. Their potential impact on the economy is to raise prices, reduce consumers' buying power, and eventually to cause inflation.
What a fool.
8
The ties between Europe and USA need to be strenghened first. USA and Europe have got the same roots the same forefathers.
A weak USA would result in a life threat to Europe.
But a strong Russia is also important for stability in Europe and as a counterweight to China too.
China is dominating Asia and Afrika. And will gain influence in Europe and South Amerika. This could be a danger for the US as well.
But World needs stability. The big three has to come to Terms of an agreement of Areas of influence.
E. G. South Amerika and the EU US backyard. Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong Chinese backyard. East of the EU border Russian backyard.
If the big three don't find a common new world order
as a base of cooperation of the big three
instability will enhance terrorism, migration crisis
and cause social unrest due to economic downturn.
The trade issue will then automatically be solved due
to common trust.
1
What happens if China decides to put huge tarrifs on exports from China of computers and their components? lol! USA imports most of it's stuff from China and it's not made in the USA.
If you loose goodwill with China they will show you whose really the boss because you rely on them so heavily for imports. I can see China holding up paper work for USA importers and exporters and USA not being able to get landing space in China. Soooo many ways they'll get back at you in a discrete way.
Trump is out of his depth in threatening China. China is very diplomatic and respectful and doesn't interfere in other nations sovereignty and doesn't take too kindly to people or governments belittling them. I quite like China as it is a very well organised nation and has some very subtle processes for dealing with lack of diplomacy and interference with sovereignty of its government.
To be quite honest I'd rather have Chinese 5G than any other nations 5G. Does China tell USA what to do in their sovereign nation and to clean up it's rivers and lakes? I think not. China is going green and cleaning up their nation, is USA doing the same.
You'll probably find that the Chinese government will get back at USA, for loss of face, in very subtle ways, such as holding up paper work for exporters and importers. It's not Trump that suffers because of his words but the business owners affected by his lack of diplomacy. If you're dealing with China they are very sensitive and they don't forget loss of face.
Here is one example of organised subtle retaliation, without the spoken word, by China.
https://liveandletsfly.boardingarea.com/2019/02/12/air-new-zealand-taiwan-problem/
2
Two things: the NYT and others are so absorbed in describing the individual trees in the forest that they misjudge the forest's importance. China will endure whatever it needs to before yielding to the US plan to have them reconstruct their government's control over the economy.
Second, Trump needs a deal with China more than China needs one with the US. Trump is running out of opportunities to actually be successful in any foreign policy endeavor. If I owned a cat, that cat would be a better negotiator.
Actually, make that 3 things. Trump is an ignoramus who doesn't understand tariffs, as when he boasts about how much money China has paid us because of his tariffs.
4
As Jim Brokaw noted earlier tariffs are a tax Americans pay, not a direct cost to the Chinese. In effect they are a sales tax, so in effect the president is imposing a sales tax of 25 percent on an array of Chinese-made goods. Presumably this will cut American purchase of those goods, or more likely we will see Chinese companies move production to low-wage countries like Cambodia, something already happening in textiles. This may have some effect on employment in China but little impact on long-run profitability of Chinese firms.
Meanwhile the Chinese will curtail purchases of American soybeans and other agricultural products, undercutting the farm economy. In China Xi Jinping may face some challenging decisions. e.g., should China undertake a symbolic sale of American debt to remind Steven Mnuchin of he importance of Chinese financial cooperation. Should the Chinese extend some symbolic support to Cuba, Venezuela, Iran or most importantly North Korea. President Trump may happily lie to the American people about who pays tariffs but he may be less happy about Iranian oil for Chinese arms. We can be sure the Chinese have identified choke points in the American economy that can be tightened or squeezed . Xi Jinping may be unhappy dealing with some economic slowing caused by Trump tariffs but he cannot permit China to be pushed around by bluster....it could be dangerous to his health. Will Chinese hackers release the unredacted Mueller report or a trove of Trump financials?
2
The article's import is limited; it's little more than a status report on how globalists think and how their interests will be affected.
How about the rest of us? Prices? Jobs? Or just increased protections for corporations and their property rights claims?
1
I would not be surprised if China buying Iranian oil is not a big part of these negotiations.
3
And this economic news, along with the president's unstable and capricious attitude toward China, will doubtless be of no
serious concern to Mr. Trump's "base."
They'll apparently blindly vote for him anyway in 2020.
4
We must always remember that Mr Trump just says (or tweets) stuff. His motives may be varied -- self-aggrandizement, petulance, bullying, tactical efforts to sow chaos, whatever -- but there is rarely any relationship between what Mr Trump says and the truth, or between what he says and what he does.
The Chinese negotiators, being intelligent and observant, surely know this, and are even as I write planning a coherent set of responses to optimize the outcome in their direction.
The United States negotiators, in contrast, can look at their investment and planning as blown up once again, and get to improvise.
Who's going to get more out of the negotiations, now?
4
He says whatever comes into his head, even if he knows he won't follow through. Why do the markets react? That's my retirement!
5
China wants to take the lead in AI. It needs time, every bit of technology it can fashion borrow or steal, and a non competitive market to perfect it. Tariffs are only an obstacle. A tariff war can't defeat the Chinese plan. Development of markets via agreements with others and tech infrasructure spending will. An investment income tax will pay for it. Time for new leadership.
2
The Chinese have been able to bully and bribe their way through Bush and Obama administrations, using the US Chamber of Commerce as their principal lobbyist. They were sure that they can hoodwink Trump with a trickle of cosmetic changes, while leaving cybertheft, forced change of IP and repatriation of profit as it is. This tactic, after all,works like a charm with the Europeans and the Third World.
Trump is finally calling their bluff and bluster. There really is no need to outsource manufacturing to China which is bound to use their supply chains for blackmail. If Chinese banks can operate in the West then Western banks should have access to the Chinese market. There should be no deal with 1:1 reciprocity!
8
Hey, I bet you’d know this.
How much do Trump and his family owe China in loans at this point?
Thanks. Just wondering.
2
@Robert
Trump is not perfect.
I do wonder why some people focus on his imperfections than the trade problems with China, which has been exploiting the rules for a couple of decades. Do you have a problem with 1:1 reciprocity? Blackmailing every Chinese company found to knowingly use stolen IP?
Xi "risks giving in to Trump`s demands, especially in areas where many people in China feel the country has to make progress, such as in technology, if it wants to keep growing at a healthy pace."
In 2017 China filed more patents than any other country. It`s plan is to become "the " primary high tech leader of the world. Trump`s plan is to swindle more people including laundering Russian mafia money in real estate "deals".
America , you are better than the Trump-Kushner crime family...…...aren`t you ?
4
You can have all the esoteric analysis all you want. Honestly, does it have to be every day "Trump this" or 'Trump that.'' He's making a threat to to this. Then the threat is softened. And then on to the next thing. And it's all lapped up by the media. Is it all "good copy?" Yea, the stock market is responding, but, incredibly, but is there any possibility it's mostly a "Hey everyone, look at me, I need/crave this attention'' cry from the President. Sadly, nothing surprises me anymore.
3
Am I the only one that can see what's going on here?? How can not one see that foreign and trade policy are intractably linked?? Any time North Korea takes actions such as weapons testing that can be perceived as a threat to the West and our allies, Trump will take economic action against China because he believes China can rein in North Korea. If China cannot or will not, Trump will threaten China with economic tariffs. I refuse to believe that North Korea's recent weapons testing and Trump's recent tariff threats are merely coincidence!
2
I'm concerned that Trump is cycling the markets for someone's financial benefit. Who could that be?
7
Why does president Trump, and the news media keep saying the balance of the goods NOT BEING TAXED, all the goods are already being taxed, check the duty rates of all goods coming in to the USA, The 25% will be in addition to the taxes we are already paying. Do the American people think that China or the companies bringing in the goods will be absorbing these additional taxes? Wake up America, you the citizens will be paying that much more for ALL your purchases going forward, if these additional tariffs are added.
5
With a alleged booming economy, if you’re already wealthy, why is trump trying to destroy it. Oh my right, he and his buddies make money by short selling with advance notice from Donnie.
How much did they make short selling soy beans? That market is gone forever. Once trump has become increasingly unpredictable countries will find more reliable sources for their needs. I don’t go to stores that refuse to sell me products they have for anything. They lose all of my business.
2
There are plenty of real-world things to criticize him on but that one is absurd
Hundreds of former Justice officials assert Trump would be facing felony charges if he were not President
5
Chinese nominal GDP is up about 7% for the first quarter. Guess the tariffs haven't hurt them, since their exports to the U.S. have actually increased since Trump put them in place.
5
One an agree with the observation that China must be taken seriously as a competitor to the USA while disagreeing with the tactic. When was the last time post-WWII China acquiesced to American threats? I can't think of too many examples.
2
Trump's tweets about his Trump Tariffs show a complete mis-understanding of how tariffs work... and who ends up paying them.
Trump's Tariffs are a TAX on AMERICANS. Trump's Tariffs raise the cost of goods Americans buy, and have little impact on China directly other than as a side effect of Americans buying less since they can't afford things. What a wonderful way to send a message to China: take things made in China away from poorer Americans. Only Trump could come up with an idea like that.
Of course, in addition to American consumers paying Trump's Tariffs through higher prices here in America, American workers and farmers are also paying, when Trump's Tariffs raise prices for manufacturing inputs, like parts and raw materials, which slows sales and causes layoffs. Farmers face retaliation as China buys soybeans from Brazil instead of American farmers... so in addition to costing American consumers more, Trump's Tariffs cost American farmers sales, and American workers jobs.
Trump's Tariffs are a TAX on AMERICANS, and are paid by Americans. China, meanwhile, sells to the rest of the world unhindered. Only Trump could do something this stupid and think it is "winning".
7
@Jim Brokaw Nonsense. Taxing imports is an age old tactic that discourages buyers because it makes imported goods more expensive than domestic goods. If it didn't work, then why would anyone care? Especially China?
Besides, in the past, most aims of American politicians towards China had zero to do with trade. It had to do with trying to change China's politics.
Of course this works. Always has. Yes, there will be retaliation. But that's the nature of a trade war that has been much too long in the coming. America is China's best market. Period. To take a big chunk out of that market has a large effect on China's economy. America can much easier absorb any Chinese tariff on us, and thus on them.
5
@Rocky, yes it "works" to inflict some pain on the Chinese in terms of slowing their growth, but the tariff is not a fee paid by the Chinese. It's a fee paid by the purchaser (that's us), and those fees are passed on to the consumer as higher prices. So, the Chinese get hurt, but the money comes from American consumers.
4
It’s a tax on both, if you really want to know
The bigger issue is the OIL waiver!! These need to be enforced together with the train war threat in order to bring China to the table in a truly meaningful way to stop their cyber terrorism and cyber theft!
1
I'm convinced Trump only makes announcements like these so the value of stocks decrease and one of his dummy companies can buy at a lower price. It's been a pattern that then on a "whim" he changes his mind and prices go back up.
10
Trump is doing what the last two Republican and Democratic Administrations refused to do. The Chinese have not negotiated in good faith. They have no incentive to do so because for political reasons our leadership has been fearful of the short term economic fallout that will occur when compelling China to agree to rules that are fair to the United States and China.
I do not support Donald Trump's conservative agenda and I do not support his immorality and lack of ethics. However, in this case Mr. Trump is 100% correct in his actions. The Chinese have neither fear nor respect for the U.S. Their leadership does not have to answer at the next election.
China has gutted our industrial base and exported its own unemployment to the U.S. They steal intellectual property and insist upon unenforceable agreements so they can cheat.
The Chinese are not our friends, allies, or even competitors. They are ravenous cheats who take advantage of the U.S. at every opportunity. They are expanding economically and militarily at the expense of the U.S. They also threaten other nations with trade and economic deals that leave them bankrupt.
Trump is right. It's time, no matter what the cost for the U.S. to stand up to Chinese economic, industrial and military aggression. Our leaders failed us. Trump is keeping his promise. China need us far more than we need them. Play fair or stay out of our markets. Keep our citizens employed. Not Chinese.
10
Trump is the first President in a long time to finally take on China and their predatory trade practices and their blatant intellectual property theft. And what is the response from the Liberal media (and even some of the media that leans more right)? Hand wringing that it may hurt the economy and it's a bad course of action. What exactly is going to fix it? More years of "negotiating"? Of course it. It has to HURT China more than it helps or it won't work.
Who, exactly, believes that years of poor trade policy and a head-in-the-sand approach to dealing with China will cost nothing to remedy? It will be painless for us? Yes, there will be a price.... albeit temporary. And of course, expect exactly zero help from our weak-kneed pretend allies, the EU member nations who even shirk their duty (promises, actually) to spend at least 2% of their GDP on their own defense..... but won't. They're too enamored with giving in on the next socialist entitlement and robbing from their own defense budgets to pay for it, assuming the USA will bail them out. Stay the course Mr. Trump and pay no attention to the cowards and double-minded.
8
The apparent glee that Mr. Trump and his millions of followers apparently have about slowing China's growth is incredibly shortsighted and just a little ironic. Why? Because if China slows, the rest of the world slows. Including the USA. The hip bone is connected to the leg bone, eh. Poncing around like the emperor of the world may feel good to Donald, but the lack of vision is not going to equate to 'winning' for Americans or anyone else for that matter.
6
@Matt I am saying that this constant pursuit of conflict in which America is engaged is neither a demonstration of strength nor a sustainable strategy. A strong China does not equate to a weak America.
The Chinese are SO MUCH MORE ADEPT at negotiating than this corrupt, incompetent administration of ours. They have been at it for centuries while Trump and his "business" groupies are brand new to the game. Trump's personal record is one of abysmal failure and grifting, bankruptcies, lies and NDAs. He has never run any hints organization, has no conscience and no business savvy. Please feel free to ignore everything he says - you will come out much better by doing so.
Xi and Liu well know this and they, unlike Trump, see WAY down the road and do not care only about narcissistic self-aggrandizement and re-election or the next quarterly reports or "polls". THEY have steered China's economy through thick and thin - although I have great issues with many of their policies too.
Trump is so out-classed that this is pathetic. WE NEED REAL NEGOTIATROS and statesmen; ones who will build LASTING ties with the rest of the world for many years to come, not temporary rope-bridges until 2020.
2
Trump might have gone to the best universities in the USA but they forgot to tell him that there is a legal word in the dictionary named, DIPLOMACY. You're not meant to be a one man band if you're the ruler of a nation, and you're meant to delegate negotiations if you can't zip it and be diplomatic.
4
This is all about Xi's ego. Can you imagine if Trump banned all mention of orangutans from the internet inside of the US? Well, that is what Xi has done in China with Winnie The Pooh.
Xi doesn't want his subjects -- and by extension, himself -- being called out for being the thieves and cheats that they are, so he is naturally hesitant to accede to the very reasonable demands of the US to stop stealing/cheating and to stop tilting the marketplace in China's favor.
A reasonable person would admit the misdeeds of his subjects, and would pledge to never again resort to theft and trickery. But pride goeth before a fall. We'll see what happens on Friday. I hope Chairman Xi's subjects have planted enough cabbage to get them through the winter.
2
It's a big mistake to think just because you're a superpower you can treat other nations in a disrespectful manner. No person or nation is indispensable; as history has shown us nations rise and fall.
NZ relied solely on England to export to before the formation of the EU and we got dumped by England when they decided to join the EU. NZ had to quickly diversify it's markets and acted accordingly and NZ was the first nation in the world to get a free trade agreement with China.
Trumps gob is making the situation worse.
4
You know, if Trump hadn’t attacked all our allies, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, Mexico etc. with petty threats and tariffs, maybe he could have gotten all our allies on board and confronted China with a worldwide unified front.
What can I say. What’s done is done and we’ll have Russia and China on opposite sides attacking our next election.
4
Want to know, “the bottom line?”
Here it is: Donald Trump is, first and foremost, a troublemaker!
And I also think he’s the most dangerous man in the world.
What do you think?
4
@ppromet
You are absolutely correct!
2
So Trump is threatening more taxes for America to bring China to it's knees? Most people don't realize that tariffs are paid by the IMPORTER (a/k/a American Company) not the Exporter. What does the Importer do with this extra cost? Pass it along to their customers (the American consumer).
7
While I agree with senator Hirono that our president is a lying grifter, I do not believe that letting the China tariff relief expire after 10 months. Extending these undercuts negotiations that have dragged on. I
Trump, who went to the best schools and has the best words, has absolutely no understanding of global trade. All he knows is bullying and reneging on agreements. Why the Chinese would even bother trying to negotiate with Trump is puzzling. Clearly the lying buffoon in the White House does not negotiate in good faith. Not to worry though, Tariff Man will levy punitive tariffs against China and American consumers will pay the price. Hopefully, some Trump supporters will realize that they were scammed and stay home on Election Day in 2020.
3
I have been, and will always be, shocked by the NYT readership in this comment section staunchly and stubbornly cheering the Chinese side in this dispute. While no one questions that DT is a loose canyon, no one should likewise question the need to face China, call their bluffs, and rebalance our trade with them. Which DT is doing one way or the other, much better and more determinedly than any other president before him. In part, that brought him to the White House. But no, the liberals would seemingly pact with the devil himself just to get rid of Trump, that's how much they detest him, indescribably.
3
You misunderstand. I’m totally with attempting to fix aspects of China trade. The problem is Trump’s ham-handed tariffs are not the way. A better way would be to create a multi lateral agreement with everyone else in the region and use that to pressure China. Does that sound familiar? It should. That was the Trans Pacific Partnership negotiated by Obama that Trump reneged on without the slightest understanding of what it was.
6
If you started that landslide, or were aware of it coming, how much could you have made with an offshore account and a burner phone?
2
This is not 'Trumps' Trade War'. We have been in a trade war with China for 20 years and they have been winning. Unfortunately Trump can't explain this properly and neither can the NYT.
Grain prices dropped to a 42 year low today. The Chinese are over a barrel and the US farmer is paying the price.
2
Trump is fighting his trade war in the very same way he drove his publicly traded company into bankruptcy multiple times.
Both then and now, someone else is always going to pay for his foibles, while
Trump plays king of the world in Mar-A-Lago.
3
Mr. Trump needs a lot of chaos to cover up what's beginning to rain down on him. Upsetting China works perfectly, takes the focus off his cuddly relationship with Mr. Putin, gets everyone in a tizzy over the market drop and gee, we're not talking about when Mr. Mueller will testify or, more specifically, how he will probably contradict Mr. Barr's shameless portrayal of exoneration.
There is no trade war with China, it's simply this man in Russia's pocket trying to refocus attention so he/they can continue to erode our foundation of laws. He recently spoke a long time with Mr. Putin, this was no doubt his idea.
2
Now you blame Trump for "upending" negotiations that he initiated and that you criticized? He can't win, no matter what he does, as far as your headlines are concerned.
4
Well, since the precedent has been set and is apparently A-OK with the House and Senate, I'd say China has the green light to assist whatever person they would like to be president of the US going forward. No need to settle for this one if he's ruining their economy.
We're up for sale, and everyone knows it.
Let's start the bidding, shall we?
3
Most people think Trump is a lunatic. I say the jury is out. Let's see if he is, rather, a genius in trade negotiations. It appears that so far the tariffs on Chinese goods has led to a boom in the US economy. Maybe there's no connection. Should the economy crash, Trump could re-enact FDR's (old) New Deal and spend trillions on infrastructure and pay poet's to write poetry. It's a strange world.
2
"...a full-blown trade war with the United States could cut China’s economic growth rate by 1.6 to 2 percentage points over the next 12 months (down from the projected 6.6%)."
And if China had it up to here, they could simply tank the ENTIRE US economy, maybe except the military sector.
Consumer goods, components, raw materials, rare Earth metals, textiles...
Careful what you are brandishing. It may hurt you more, than it hurts them.
I don’t think it’s beyond Trump to make these claims to manipulate the market for his rich buddies. It’s a bit of a rehearsal for when Wall Street inevitably tips south. I was actually relieved to see that the days trading was only being affected by the child kings golden potty time tweets.
2
Tariffs are taxes, regressive taxes but taxes all the same. Trump has no understanding of taxes because he and his family have never paid them.
2
Does Trump actually not know that Americans pay the tariffs through cost increases on prices of goods?
4
For a long time China has been given a chance to become a democratic country. They took an advantage of having access to western markets and smartly acquired new technologies. Our previous administrations did very little to protect our strategic industries that had migrated to China. We were reckless allowing IT companies like IBM or Apple to move their production to China. Barak Obama concluded we were not able to bring American jobs back from China to the US. Recently China president Xi got rid of presidential term limits and pushed the new law through his legislative. Chinese require that companies, which establish operations or trade in their country turn over to them designs and details of their technologies. Since 2014 China has accelerated their efforts in building modern military. China advancement in the facial and body recognition software is being used to track their citizens, especially minorities like Uighurs. Within last years China extended their world influence by lending money to many poor countries while interfering with their governments. Chinese built a space station in Argentina, which enables them to spy on the US. Instead of leaning toward democratization China became much bigger threat than Russia. Should we continue our economic relationship with China on unequal terms thus allowing them to grow at our expense?
4
This article should point out the glaring economic illiteracy revealed in Trump’s tweet.
Tariffs are paid by the importer at the time of import. China, being the exporter, does not pay tariffs.
The direct cost is borne by the American importer of the Chinese goods. By extension, the cost of tariffs paid by the importer is passed on to the buyer of the imported goods, i.e.: American consumers. All of this money ‘paid to the USA’ in the President’s mind isn’t coming from China – it’s coming from us!
Take all that in for a moment. Our global trade policy is being made off the cuff on Twitter by a President who is so profoundly ignorant of basic economic concepts that he would fail a high school social studies quiz on the topic.
10
@Joe Bob the III
"This article should point out the glaring economic illiteracy revealed in Trump’s tweet."
Sorry, but the economic iliterate here is not Donald Trump.
Trump's tariffs aren't meant to be paid. If the threat of tariffs does not change China's negotiating position, the tariffs are so high they are meant to force U.S. importers to switch their sourcing from China to low-cost countries not subject to the high tariffs. And that's what hurts China a great deal.
This process has been going on for some time now, and Vietnam in particular has been a big beneficiary of re-sourcing.
So it's just not sound economic analysis to say high tariffs imposed on Chinese goods will be passed on to Americans.
1
Excellent job, Mr. President, for standing up to China. Excellent job.
4
I wonder if anyone is checking to see if any of the Trump confidants shorted stocks before are Pres made the impactful tweet
3
Why don't the Trumps put their money where their mouths are and stop getting products produced in China? How many patents has Ivanka sought from China? The last I recall reading, exemptions on the higher tariffs were for their specific product categories. How very convenient for them.
13
Since this 'fun and easy to win' (trump's words, remember?) trade war began, the price of a washing machine has increased by $100.
Coincidence? I think not.
11
Aside from trump's weird fantasies about his 'deal making' acumen, his actual record leaving behind a series of costly business bankruptcies has been a miserable failure. Playing the tough guy in trade negotiations is hardly an appropriate strategy, particularly with a powerful world economic adversary and major US creditor.
10
guess the Trump team was short the market over the weekend. Interesting comment on NPR today from a prof at Brown that Trump really doesn't want to settle because the "fight" makes good theatre in the upper midwest.
8
I’m sure the Chinese fully trust US commitments in the trade negotiations. I can’t imagine the Chinese choosing any other path in the face of Trumps hard line consistency. His power in this game is epic, like he says. He is consistently inconsistent so the Chinese can’t predict his next move and outsmart him.
China will definitely blink first. Trump is uncanny in this arena with Twitter as his wingman bringing deals to fruition, is child’s play.
1
China has been eating our lunch and manufacturing jobs for a two generations.
3
@mkm
Lunchbox manufacturers located there, maybe that's why.
3
I’m wondering, if all those people who welcomed the opening of Mao’s China in the 1970’s, given the fact that China is becoming the leader in world trade, and its negative effects upon the west, are beginning to regret that?! Yep, Nixon’s the one!
3
Trump is hurting the U.S. more than China. The tariffs are not paid by Chinese companies but by the U.S. importers! The additional 15% tariffs can no longer be 'absorbed' and will need to be passed on to consumers...prepare for higher prices.
14
@StuartMD
Correct -- and those higher prices will surface most obviously at giants like Walmart where most everything they sell is 'Made in China'.
In other words, Trump's tariffs will mean higher prices for his faithful MAGA cap crowd which, true to form, will cheer DT for "sticking it to China" while the real sticking will occur to their ever-dwindling pocketbooks. Can't say this makes me sad!
8
With or without Tarrifs I personally avoid many "Made in China" products and suspect a substantial number of people do.
3
@John What present day magic accomplishes that?
1
We need Chinese do the following: open Chinese markets, provide protection against technology theft and copyright violations, stop subsidizing the industries. If Chinese are helping the poor nations is one thing, exploiting them is another. Most of the underdeveloped nations dislike Chinese as opposed to United States, which helped the world to develop and consequently is admired. Chinese are feeling insecured, they are craving for world recognition as a great nation very much like how Trump feels, who is seeking recognition.
2
Am I the only one concerned that the trump admin may be trying to incite an actual war, since it's uncommon for the American electorate to oust a first-term president during wartime, particularly in the beginning weeks and months of an armed conflict.
Unfortunately and frighteningly, more and more, it appears trump and/or his handlers may be that diabolical in their effort to maintain their hold on power.
What is, and will, Congress, the Pentagon, and career employees in both the State Dept. and military doing to prevent that from happening? What can others do or avoid doing?
3
Trump just realizes he needs the revenue since his tax cuts are cratering the federal budget. More tariffs on American consumers. Finally Republicans break their no new taxes pledge and the Times is silent.
6
My understanding is that the U. S. is collecting record tax revenues. The deficit problem occurs perhaps because spending increase outpace tax Revenue growth.
3
@@John, Indeed your understanding then is incredibly deficient. In nominal terms, the final revenue number might be higher because economies grow and unless there's a contraction, next month's number will always be higher than last month's. So, that's your "record" tax revenues. However, there are other measures, like the % of GDP collected from corporations. It used to be around 6% of GDP. Now it's around 1%, meaning that for a $20T economy, annually we collect $1 TRILLION LESS than we used to from corporations relative to an economy of our current size. That's your so-called "record."
5
@John
Your understanding is completely wrong. Federal tax revenue fell in 2018. It is down even further in the first quarter of 2019. The federal budget deficit in February was the largest in history for a single month. Over 230 billion. The deficit problem is a result of tax cuts combined with spending increases. Necessary in recessionary times but absolutely brain dead in a growing economy with full employment.
7
China manufactures everything. Look at your house, your possessions, your car etc half of it comes from China. You can't take on the Chinese in a trade war expecting anything good to come out of it. The stock market tumbles and everyone's 401k retirement takes a huge hit. And Trump lives in his fantasy world of the Chinese taking it in the gut and simply paying us all the tariffs. He fails to mention the collapse of American sales into China which is entirely what you need to bolster and improve. President Chi is smart, he can simply wait until Trump leaves office.
Make a economic giant like China your friend not your enemy. Negotiate properly and you'll get something. Instead Trump flails around like a fish caught on dry land and cozies up to Russia who have absolutely nothing to offer the US.
9
"China manufactures everything."
They don't manufacture everything. Consider Taiwan, India, etc.
I feel better about buying from Taiwan which tends to check China then China that serves as a check on our own influence. If I compare what China, America, Taiwan, and India represent as nations, I feel much better about supporting the latter three than China.
I believe in the principals of Liberty and our Bill of Right, particularly the ability to speak one's mind and elections for those leading governments. I believe the right to govern comes from the conscent of the governed. I believe in religious freedom, trial by jury, due process.
4
Obviously, the apparent progress in the trade talks with China was another Trump lie - why else threaten them now?
5
like the Commies, Trump is not wrong about everything. China has been eating our lunch for 30 years.
6
The desire for cheap Chinese manufacturing threatens the safety and security of all Americans.
Trump is simply doing his job.
8
He is doing it incompetently. This will cost Americans and will result in no new manufacturing. The only benefit is that he gets kudos from his base who do not have any economic IQ.
3
I find all this tariff stuff rather weird as NZ does free trade agreements and they work well, especially with China. We export more farming goods to China than to the USA and China are NZs biggest buyers of our exports.
There are plenty of other continents and nations that China can export to, like Europe and Russia and Asia. Sixty nations have joined the Belt and Road Initiative, and just shows how China and USA are reversing roles on the global world trade stage.
China doesn't respond to threats so we had better watch this space! lol!
6
This is what a narcissist does.
DJT looks at the news cycle or something negative about to drop and he does something- anything - to grab the headlines.
Creating a drive-by trade war on a Sunday evening is par for DJT.
We must never normalize this behavior but we should certainly be used to it.
And in the end, the US consumer pays... and putin laughs.
9
Your title is missing problems for “consumers”.
Should read:
Trump’s Trade War Threat Poses Problems for China, Investors, and consumers
6
Trump will crash the great economy Obama left US...He is not bright enough to listen to people who know more the him, which is just about everyone! Greenspan & Bush caused the last crash...trump is destine to do the same.
6
Everybody in business knows China is a huge thief of intellectual property. If Trump’s negotiations persuade China to follow international norms of behavior, it will be a victory for everyone.
6
Way to tank the market, genius.
4
Let Trump just suspend all imports from China for 60 days
The South China Sea will be a parking lot of container ships loaded and nowhere to go.
Chinese ports will be paralyzed.
CEOs will scramble to find new sources, they will break down the doors of manufacturers in Singapore, South Korea and Japan.
That’s how to play hardball.
3
@New World: That is lunacy. Sure, Chinese ports would be paralyzed – and so would many American businesses. Do you think there are idle manufacturers in Singapore, South Korea, and Japan just waiting to fulfill orders from American companies? The ‘global supply chain’ is a real thing and you don’t unwind and redo them overnight.
It has fallen out of the headlines but American manufacturers are still disrupted by the steel and aluminum tariffs imposed over a year ago. The items in question there are a relatively small handful of raw materials. They may not actually have the capacity to meet our demand, but at least alternate suppliers exist in many cases. The same cannot be said of electronics, custom components, or complex finished goods.
2
When one is faced with an unstable, unpredictable trade partner, one naturally seeks a more stable partner to replace them. The US is proving to be no longer the reliable partner other countries had come to expect. Consequently, their best bet is to keep smiling and nodding while establishing new relationships with partners in the background, thereby making a relationship with the US a luxury and no longer a necessity. It's not a fast process, but it's already well under way. And I don't think the US economy will enjoy it when the changeover is finished. Oh, well. I guess this is "winning"?
7
Congress should appoint an independent commission to investigate the entire US/China economic situation. Trump cannot be allowed to run loose on such an important matter. He has little understanding of the question and zero knowledge about the history of the two countries. His habit is to bungle away until he is stopped by others.
6
Welcome NYT to the China bashing crowd. This article portrays, without any evidence, that the Chinese is in a weak negotiating position. This is totally inline with the attitude of American exceptionalism. This latest array of tweets is an indication that the Chinese are winning.
5
It seems that the United States of America is attempting to control the world by Hook or by Crook. U.S., has been controlling the world imposing “Democracy” by force, invading and killing civilians. The so-called sanctions yet another way to control those countries that refused to bend their knees to America. Hence Trump in his attempt to “make America great again” is undermining world peace. The damage that this man has inflicted to U.S.’s working class is visible, the quality of life has been continuously decreasing. Trump and his cronies are literally damaging the institutions, the environment, and the way of life.
4
Of course the president upended the negotiations. Heaven forbid he ever take responsibility for anything. Much easier to stomp his feet and wave his little fingers wildly, all the while blaming everyone one else for his failures.
3
It sounds very much like China is playing games. And old game with them at that. They seem to promise change, but then they put roadblocks in the way that allow them to spin out NO CHANGE for years, all while the say/pretend to be complying. The Chinese have been stealing intellectual property for years, including military technology and they've used it to modernize their armed forces and behave in a hegemonic and aggressive way in areas like the South China Sea. China is no longer a poverty stricken 3rd world country with an economy and military so small it doesn't matter. It now challenging the USA, and challenging us and our allies in an aggressive manner with money that it got through unfair trade practices and technology it got by stealing. China has succeeded with the help of the USA and the West beyond the worlds wildest hopes. Not it has to stop cheating and play by the rules. Thank God we have President Trump standing strong for the USA and the WEST. Obama was a weak worthless saboteur and the Chinese knew it. They still haven't figure out that Trump cannot be played for the fool like Obama, but they may be learning.
5
The Chinese have been around for several thousand years. We are struggling to make it to 300. They have seen countries come and go so underestimating the level of patience is a mistake.
Our “leader” never fails to overplay a good hand. There is no good deal that he is cutting. This bluster is to put lipstick on the pig he is going to trot out.
7
If I was China, I'd leave the table and come back only when an adult is present.
5
@MH Well, Trump will be around until 2024 so they will have to wait a long time.
2
Record peace time deficits and a record trade deficit. Best economic mind ever! And supporting domestic jobs at only $800,000 per! No wonder this guy has gone bankrupt so many times.
5
The Chinese Government is committing outrageous human rights violations right now -- imprisoning more than 1 million ethnic Uighur in concentration camps for "re-education." Yet this Administration has swept that issue completely under the rug while they negotiate this trade deal. So, we're just threatening them with tariffs? Freeing those people should be part of the deal, or have we given up on basic human decency all together?
3
The tariffs threat was coupled with a rather large carrot - the statement that Trump would be backing off of US demands re additional intellectual property protection, which was by far China's biggest sticking point in trade talks. But of course the NYT spins it as bad, bad, bad.
1
Trump obviously thinks that he has the Chinese over a barrel. Chinese economic growth is threatened by these tariffs. Xi has had his stature challenged by Trump's hard bargaining. Loss of face for Xi will be a major determinating factor in the talks.
18
@c harris - Trump doesn't care or think about Xi or anything or anyone else. Trump thinks and acts only in terms of what benefits him and his inner circle.
19
@c harris Trump is a bully. Period. No plan other than chaos and hate. Where will it end? Not something good. Ray Sipe
8
On every topic possible, we are seeing everyone bullied because of American military and financial power. The EU, Venezuela, Iran, China, Japan, India, Palestine, Cuba, Mexico, Germany...
America can do it because it’s powerful. And now no one expects any moral dimension anyway.
But those that sow the wind will reap the storm. Nothing lasts forever. Everyone is just biding their time to turn the tables. The only real investment in friendship this administration has made is in Israel, Saudi Arabia and North Korea. Those are hardly going to be enough going ahead.
4
This is how he negotiates - he walks his partner to the edge letting them think they have a deal and then he pulls the rug out from underneath them. North Korea is back to shooting missiles, the story is story is still being written with Europe and China just got Trumped. It remains to be seen if Trump’s strategy succeeds in the East. I wouldn’t ascribe crookedness to all of his actions, some are merely devious in the aim of doing best for the country and that is what this may be. I am not a Trumper btw....
No,trump poses a serious threat to everything not just the economy.
4
China has been buying huge swaths of farmland in Africa.
They will be planting mostly soybeans.
Keep an eye on this.
4
China intends to operate Africa like it does Tibet. Trump is asleep at the wheel.
3
We need China more than China needs us. There are few manufacturing businesses that don't get parts made in China. There are few retailers that don't have merchandise made in China. The US owes China over a trillion dollars. Trump acts like a tough guy because he doesn't understand the consequences of his actions. He is like a petulant child without adult supervision. We need to start centering our blame on the Republicans and Mitch McConnell for Trump's behavior. They do know the consequences, but have done nothing to rein him in.
115
@Teddi
Fortunately for the future of our country ,Trump does understand that the economic leverage China has over the U.S. must be challenged. Now.
7
@Teddi Given the size of capital markets and the demand for US debt the fact that China holds a trillion dollars of US debt gives them no significant leverage over us. Our own Fed holds 4 trillion. If them dumped the whole amount tomorrow it might raise the rate on the ten year 30-50 bps, where it was 4 months ago.
6
@Teddi And if we wait we will need them less?
They'll surely decide to turn to democracy any second now...
2
Just to clarify the President's false and misleading tweet that China is paying these tariffs. Tariffs are imposed on these goods as they enter the country. The American Consumer is actually the one paying for this.
9
@Chris
I have the next great idea for T.
Increase the tax to 100% and they will send us their goods for free. I want a free computer and smart phone!
1
Basically, he is raising taxes. All swindlers disguise their thefts.
2
I'm getting the feeling that Trump and his "advisors" have discovered that they can make millions playing the stock market off his erratic Twitter behavior.
Sell.
Tweet a tariff threat.
Stocks fall.
Buy.
Wait for stocks to recover.
Repeat.
20
It Is NOT a Trade War...its a Fair TRADE Agreement that China is not in Good Faith stepping up to the plate and making....and until they do so....Tariffs are the leverage to be used the playing field and access needs to be equal across the board and the trade imbalance leveled.
2
Everything Trump does is transactional and in the moment. He has no idea what the word consequences means. He is completely Zen - living in the moment and totally self centered. He will take an action that makes sense to him now, if he must contradict himself later, "That was then, this is now."
In a perverse way I have to admire him. This is a person who has a very clear view of himself and is acting it out in the world with consistency. He really hasn't changed since he was a spoiled kid playing with daddy's money, all the way to being President.
His beliefs and actions are a clear guide on what not to do as a person who has to live in a society and completely inappropriate to a leader in the modern world. We made a mistake in 2016, we are paying the price for that decision. It is past time to recognize that it was a mistake and to correct it.
14
Do Trump's trade barriers hurt ordinary Americans? Of course, but don't let that fool you. In the long run, you are better off paying $50 more for your washer and dryer.
That is the truth that critics of Trump's tariffs are cleverly skirting. You are entitled to the whole truth, not to a carefully cherry-picked sliver of the truth.
Think of it like this: We are in a trade WAR. Like any other war it can be hugely costly your own side as well as the other side. (Do you hear Xi Jinping cheering for Trump's tariffs?).
But the purpose of war is to get a just peace. If you are willing to accept an unfair peace (I am looking at you Barack Obama), then you can save $50 on your washer and dryer, but your own and your kids' jobs and wages will be jeopardized -- and our national security too.
Don't get me wrong. Trade can make BOTH trading partners fabulously better off. But a country that cheats -- say by stealing intellectual property -- can do even better at the expense of its trading partner in the short run. In the long run, the whole world losses, but the cheat loses less.
So whether he understands it or not, Trump is doing the right thing for the whole world, and the knee-jerk Trump haters have let their hatred blind them to the truth again.
8
@Ian Maitland That is your opinion and NOT supported by the economic experts. Like trump you seem to have a simple minded outlook of a complicated problem. Crying about "intellectual property" can be dealt with other ways. No one wins in a war like this. trump will crash the economy....
5
@Ian Maitland Why am I better off paying $50 more? Please explain
4
@Rich
Sorry ,Rich, no one thinks the Chinese are the good guys.
Obama just didn't have the stomach to fight the Chinese, so he just went along with their stealing our technology.
It's about time we got a U.S. president who got serious about this issue.
5
Trump talked about this in "Art Of The Deal". He didn't write about it, of course because he didn't write the book - or anything else it appears. In the book Trump talked about how he likes to throw bombs in at the end of negotiations, thinking that the other side is so invested that they will cave.
If only the real world were like Daddy giving him $300,000,000.00+ to squander, maybe this would actually work. But alas, the real world is the real world, and Donny Boy's world is his and his alone. And temporarily, we're stuck in it.
5
@Gerry
actually, it was $400,000,000.00
There is no negotiating with Trump. America is paying the full price for his hubris.
9
But under Obama, none of this would have been possible. Obama's making the Chinese introspective, would have been previously unthinkable.
@wardo Under Obama we did not have as many problems and if we did they were solved by thoughtful, intelligent people....Obama rebuilt an economy destroyed by republicans, Bush and Greenspan..BTW, he is no longer president.
4
@Wardo, Yes, because Republicans would have gone BALLISTIC and impeached Obamq if he had dared to even suggest placing tariffs on Chinese imports, let alone tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the EU. Trump’s methods are directly against Republican orthodoxy on the issue (free trade, low taxes) but to Trump’s credit it he has neutered the Republicans on some of their core positions.
3
Once again, Trump playing Macho, macho man, tough guy of the world, best negotiator ever.
And most of his 63 million voters love it.
So do Kim and Putin.
1
China is paying tariffs? How can he not know that it's the customers who are paying the tariffs?
10
The great negotiator manages to step on his best intentions (if that's even a apt descriptor of his hapless improvisations) by firing salvos of threat just days ahead of the so called last lap of discussions with the Chinese. Who in their right mind, does this? We know the answer as to Trump's. Right it isn't. Questionable as to whether there's any mind there at all.
4
@Dwight Why is it that the Democrats always take the side of the brutal repressive Chinese regime with their Emperor for life XI. The Chinese have been engaging in unfair trade that basically amounts to theft for 30 years now, and outright stealing US technology. If you look at their ships and planes you can see that the plans were stolen from the USA. Worse they are using the money and stolen tech to act in a hegemonic and aggressive manner trying to intimidate both our allies and us. Trump isn't having any of their lies and game playing. He wants fundamental change. Fair Trade and an end to the massive stealing of our technology. Thank God we have Trump to stand up to the Chinese after 8 years of that wimp Obama letting them do as they please.
1
Just for the factual evidence in case there are those who are paying attention, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS.gov) the Trump Potemkin Village economy has produced FEWER jobs in the 27 months he has been in the Oval Offce than Barack Obama created in his final 27 months in office (ending in January, 2017).
Further, the BLS reported the Labor Participation Rate at the end of April 2019 was 63.8%. When Obama left office it stood at 63.9%. So, under Trump FEWER jobs were created and the percentage of eligible people in the workforce FELL. One would think if the economy was "roaring" and since the population has grown from 323 million in 2016 to 329 million today that there should be more people working as a percentage of the labor force than the evidence reveals.
Also, real earnings of American workers which is based on 1982-1984 dollars in fact DECREASED to -0.3% (March 2019 BLS report).
Higher interest rates, higher fuel prices, exploding budget deficits of $300 billion in 2018, an additional $3 trillion added to the national debt in one year alone and the evisceration of health care and Medicare benefits all add up to a house of cards fragile economy that will push more Americans into financial ruin.
Now go out and buy/lease your monster 500 hp, 12 mpg $65,000 pickup truck that will depreciate by $3,000 the minute you drive it out the door. The sugar high from the tax cut is melting.
27
@Richard
Well done!
As they say in Congress “ I would like to yield the balance of my time to my friend from Texas, Richard!”
3
Meanwhile 10% of the workers and their families in this country don’t have enough to eat. And what are the underemployment levels at? I have a hard time worrying today about stock market investors.
5
When will the Trump fans realize, that they have to pay all of these tariffs?
Never.
19
China is experienced,thoughtful, and disciplined in their actions. Well...we have Trump and his twitter account.
Good luck to us all.
19
The Chinese are the best negotiators in the world. Mr Mnuchin and Mr Lighthizer are absolute lightweights in comparison.
China is well on its way to level with us in terms of economic power, but has already surpassed us in its national infrastructure and in technology (5G and AI as examples), and its influence (economic and political) in Asia, Africa and Latin America is extremely strong. While we have been exhausting ourselves in mindless wars and regime change endeavors, China hasn't spent a dime on wars.
Tariffs are harmful for all parties, but let's not pretend that the "trade war" is about trade...it's only about us trying to delay China's further advancement. A fool's errand in my view.
32
@Confucius If China's advancement depends on continued unfair trade, and openly stealing trillions in U.S. technology the way it has the last 30 years than it is going to slow because Trump is not going to allow the rip off to continue the way Obama did for 8 years of weakness! Despite all the Democrat propaganda and willingness to bow low to the Chinese overlords, Trump is having none of it, and oddly enough the U.S. is in the stronger position. God Bless our Jobs and growing wages President! 3.6% UNEMPLOYMENT. 49 year low.
1
@John Brown
If these trade talks fail and tariffs are applied as Trump has indicated, we'll see the economy nosedive in spectacular fashion. Trump and his appointees, including his foolish economic and trade advisers/negotiators, are way out of their league but too obstinate to recognize it.
I don’t think it’s beyond Trump to make these claims to manipulate the market for his rich buddies. It’s a bit of a rehearsal for when Wall Street inevitably tips south. I was actually relieved to see that the days trading was only being affected by the child kings golden potty time tweets.
18
@Tedsams
100% agree. I think we will discover that he has been tipping his buddies all along.
I don’t think it’s beyond Trump to make these claims to manipulate the market for his rich buddies. It’s a bit of a rehearsal for when Wall Street inevitably tips south. I was actually relieved to see that the days trading was only being affected by the child kings golden potty time tweets.
I don’t think it’s beyond Trump to make these claims to manipulate the market for his rich buddies. It’s a bit of a rehearsal for when Wall Street inevitably tips south. I was actually relieved to see that the days trading was only being affected by the child kings golden potty time tweets.
Trump's "negotiation methods" verge on extortion. China and the world (including our allies) will remember for decades the "I want it all" posturing by Trump and the fact he will pullout of any treaty or agreement at any time.
More important is the fact that China does not need the U.S. in the longterm. They have already implemented a global economic plan that assures them of natural resources and trading partners for the next 50 years (read " China's Second Continent: How a Million Migrants are building a New Empire in Africa"). This economic model is also being implemented very effectively in Latin America and Asia.
China has all the cards in this game. We have Trump and Mnuchin: GAME OVER.
20
@Paul Robillard I'm sure President Biden will set things right.
That Trump will ever sign a deal with China is a fool's hope.
Trump is using the hype that a deal is imminent to pump up the stock market. This happened in January and February this year with the news that markets are up on hopes of a China deal. So why would he want to lose his leverage on the market?
This is a cat and mouse game.
Once knot is tied the romance will be over.
6
@nr So then in the wake of the hype he scuttles it all with threats--ahead of the final discussions. No waiting and listening for the Donald. He's got his negotiators pen knife out and pretends to hold to China's throat. Not what a good negotiator ever does.
This may not be about trade at all. This could also be Trump, his family and cronies manipulating the stock market for personal gain. Perhaps once Trump figured out how he can make the market go up or down with just a tweet, he saw the money that could be made.
The real problem here is that this scenario is believable. NY Times, Washington Post: If you're listening, I hope you will look into market manipulation
35
I don't support Trump, but I do support these negotiations.
Our economy is strong right now, and China's is faltering, which gives us a lot of leverage in trade negotiations. Keeping the pressure on right now is smart.
In most ways Trump has been a terrible President, but like Nixon, who created the EPA and opened up relations with China, there are a couple of bright spots.
I loved Obama as president, for the most part, but he was just unwilling to get into a confrontation with China over even the most blatant abuses. Part of this was because America was coming out of recession, and he didn't want to rock the boat... but at some point we have to put our foot down.
12
@Brendan Our economy is strong simply based on massive borrowing. Remember when conservatives thought deficits were bad things? Now they embrace left-wing Keynesian policy.And, given the record trade deficit created by tRump, it's less rocking the boat than ramming an iceberg.
19
@Brendan - if only Obama had spent time negotiating a trade pact in the region that would isolate China and amend NAFTA to be in line with it. If only... oh yeah, that TPP that Trump pulled out of.
Trump may have a booming economy but at what cost? The environmental deregulation will be a very big price to pay for all of us. You dirty air, water and contaminated food doesn't just impact the US.
95
@Katie3b
Been to Calgary recently?
2
No question China is our greatest threat in both economics and military--very close to achieving a nuclear triad.
Xi has the greater problem--1.4 billion humans to keep busy and to feed--and an emerging middle class that wants what we have.
Not sure Xi's up to the fight with Trump. Xi's collective of "investors" are beginning to get nervous--no more dumping in the US and no more stealing high tech, i.e., a future lifestyle change.
11
First Trump is ignorant when he says China is paying tariffs- the American consumer is. (At best China sells fewer items, and might make a few token purchases they need anyway from the US to keep Trump happy.)
Which brings home the real issue, since American consumers bought the large majority of goods *made in China on behalf of American corporations*, first because it was cheaper, now because it’s made nowhere else, certainly not in the USA.
The issue isn’t really China but the question and choice: are Americans ready and willing to spend more and buy fewer items in order to return to a more local-based economy ? it’s happening at the high end with organic foods and specialty niches, but what of most manufacturing?
It’d be great - and good for the environment too, but will we able to ? are corporations, the initial drivers, willing to forgo their high margins? given the taste for the stock market, now forced on most Americans whether they want to or not, I am guessing it won’t happen anytime soon.
14
Trump will make it impossible for ANY country to trust the U.S. in ANY negotiations or agreements/treaties for a very long time into the future. As a proven street thug, his words are worthless - he keeps changing the playing field Tweet by Tweet and so far has shown no finality to any of his “great deals”.
There is a point at which even the most stupid of opponents knows when their opposition is bluffing and/or insincere, and Trump has long since passed that point. I give great credit to the rest of the world for not having drawn a red line already and called him out for the grifter he is. THEY are the only thing standing between us and all-out war.
26
Chinese investment strategy in the third world is based on One road to One road whose true purpose is debt trap by which the debtor country become slowly chinese military bases to project its influence everywhere. We have already secured enough allies around world with military bases. Besides we don't want to force the third world countries to become trapped in the debt through our investment there. it is not the honorable way anyway a democratic country is encourage to do.
What we do need is to correct the wrong path for a starter that we have taken in relation to Chinese. We fooled ourselves enough that China would have become open and liberal eventually becoming one of liberal countries if we push trade with them by opening our market to them through WTO. What happened is totally opposite. They become more totalitarian, imperial to surrounding countries and oppressive to its own people and now using their economic might to brazenly challenge us everywhere through North Korea, South China sea and Venezuella.
TO correct the wrong first by imposing tarriff or whatever and enervate Chinese government must be a priority . because this is another way to solve North Korean threat once and for all by weakening North Korea's sponsor, China, just like the Reagan led the Soviet to collapse, leading the democratization of the east Europe back then.
10
@fleetingthought
I agree whole-heartedly. Add to your statement the fact that 94% of the world's fentanyl originates from China, they have not met any of the climate goals they have agreed to and have interred muslims in a "re-education camp".
This is a welcome shock to their system.
4
@Herry
I agree, but would love for Trump to challenge China on its production of fentanyl. I am no Tump supporter, but Obama was way too weak in dealing with them.
FYI:
Explainer: Who Pays Trump's Tariffs-China and Other Exporters or U.S. Customers?
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/05/06/business/06reuters-usa-trade-tariffs-explainer.html
Although I thought there was a more detailed piece with NYT questions and answers, but I can't find it right now.
4
Clearly the trade deal doesn't deliver much. meanwhile, Americans are again at the mercy of a President who doesnt think they are burdened by these tarrifs or by this whiplash to the global economy.
4
China is, put it mildly, a criminal dictatorship and arch rival to the US, threatening global freedom as we understand the concept. Only the US and allies (including India) can contain the threat of global annexation by China and its proxies. Their takeover would not be a classic military one, but a hybrid one doing things like aligning Us banks, universities, technology firms, media and later organizations like the FBI against the US and other democratic peoples. There is no reason we particularly need to enable Chinese misconduct in the way we do. The desperately need us to remain firm defending the free world, including the nacent Chinese democracy movement, from the criminal dictatorship. We have nothing to gain by closely aligning with China and everything to lose. They are fine people but they fail to stand up to their terrible government. Please no limp equivalency talk on that point. This is serious. For once, Trump is on the right track and everyone knows it. Not even Chinese rulers would deny.
43
@rjs7777
This is wrong on so many levels, I can't believe no one has responded.
19
@rjs7777
How, concretely, is China a threat to global freedom? Unlike the US, China does business with everyone and not try to force anyone else to change their system. It’s never overthrown a foreign government in modern times. China controlling banks, tech firms, and media is laughable. China has never forced a foreign bank to stop doing business with Taiwan the way we have forced many foreign banks to stop doing business with Iran. The two biggest Chinese tech firms, Alibaba and Tencent, are largely owned by American investors, while Chinese investors are not even allowed to own a dating app in the US.
Alleged Chinese influence over the media is the most laughable at all. US media sources are constantly putting out anti-China propaganda. Just compare the “reader picks” comments in this article with the “NYT picks”—the latter are far more hostile to China. Or look at the recent Bloomberg article about supposed Chinese hardware hacking that was debunked. Or the coverage of the South China Sea—I got the impression from reading this paper that China controlled all the islands. Turns out, the largest of the Spratleys is occupied by Taiwan and the others are occupied by Vietnam or the Philippines. China occupies none of the islands, but just reclaimed some land around a few reefs.
I am not concerned with China’s rise at all; in fact I think it enhances global freedom by reducing the vast economic and geopolitical inequality between developed and developing countries.
33
@rjs7777
Global annexation by China is not going to happen, and contrary to Republican conspiratorial theory, I have enough faith in the FBI's ability to remain free from Chinese (and Russian) influence, even as the current bunch of Republican politicians try to ignore the dangers.
But your comment about "enabling of Chinese misconduct" and Trump being on the right track?
If you're talking about human rights, what "limp equivalence" are you talking about? Trump's doing absolutely zero and has decoupled human rights from any of the recent discussions. So what is he doing that is on the right track?
Are you talking about enabling Chinese misconduct via consumer's purchase of consumer goods and China stealing technology? Better talk to US consumers then. Better talk to the boards of directors who have made billions off of China in exchange for giving that technology away.
35 years ago, companies may have been blind sided by this Chinese theft, but here we are in 2019 and they are still willing to trade corporate profit for the technology. So when you say "we" are enabling this theft, let's get real. At this point the Boards are willing participants.
The US Government is bailing them out (as usual).
14
Scoundrels and Fools. Winning!
2
China will now agree to do everything that they have been doing for decades, in the exact same way, and Trump will bray VICTORY!!!!
It won't matter that we will be back at square one. As long as Trump loudly proclaims that he actually planned and executed on some major change, all is good with the base.
The market will go back up on the imaginary "deal" and Trump will loudly bray to his base, the most of whom cant even spell 401K or IRA, that he was victorious. They won't know.or care...all that matters is now Trump is teaching the Yellow Man a lesson too ( just like he did with Mexicans and other Hispanics).
Don't think for a minute that Trump didn't let his family and friends in on WHEN they should short the market...when everyone else isn't looking.
I bet Hannity made millions today.
Trump watches TeeVee, gulps down junk food, and phone diddles on Twitter all day. When exactly does he do ANYTHING at being "President"?
"Mexico will pay for the wall."....Nope.
"Trade wars are easy to win!!!"....Nope
"Infrastructure will be improved!!! Our airports are a disgrace...".....Nope.
"I "Fell in love" with Kim Jung Un...and he wuvs me too!!!"....Riiiighhhhhttt.
"We don't need Canada, NATO..."...check.
"ISIS is dead!".....WRONG.
"Tariffs bring in BILLIONS!!! ".....Nope...( why does he need to beg for money for the moronic wall then?)
"There are fine (Nazis) people on both sides!"...as Gary Cohn looks on with a stupid expression on his face.
WORST.PRESIDENT.EVER.
14
Trump claims the tariffs have had little impact on the price of Chinese products; I'd like to see, for instance, a consumer protection group verify that. When have we ever seen a company not pass their costs on to us?
Of course we could avoid the mark up's by purchasing products made elsewhere, if only we could find them. China's monopoly of our store shelves will force the American consumer to subsidize Trump's tariffs, but he thinks we're too dumb to understand that.
71
@Randy: Yes, trump's is an "industrial policy" of sorts, but his actions aren't coordinated with any infrastructural planning in the U.S. that supports augmenting industry here. Thus, the U.S. consumer pays for trump's "strategy". If some industry migrates back here, then the consumer pays more for it.
We (intelligent people) do not trust trump, and trump has published no cost benefit analysis for his churlish trade war. Trump's bankruptcy history produces skepticism.
Furthermore, if this is a trade war over IP, were China to moderate its IP policy, then the U.S. simply would go back to buying Chinese goods.
The worst part of trump's behavior (it's not responsible global relations) is that he's going it alone. He's pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Not only that, he's made enemies out of all of the nations in the Western Hemisphere, failing to build trust relationships with them. And trump has alienated Europe.
And trump has compressed the news through Twitter and Fox Noise. His followers are non-thinking believers who believe that, in only two years of his administration, trump has radically transformed the economy. This is why I disparage the intelligence of trump supporters. I was taught in grade school to trust, but verify. There is no evidence yet that trump's trade "policies" will benefit the U.S.
Trump's "deal" is all about getting away with selling a bill of goods to uninformed victims.
21
@Randy
When do you recommend the U.S. challenges the economic travesties the chinese employ? Perhaps you agree with Biden. Never.
1
@Randy
Read the articles about the impact of tariffs on clothes dryers. US manufacturers just raised the price to increase their profits. Consumers ate the total cost.
6
The market has regained much of its loss. Even if today closes way down, if Trump's bullying works he'll be a hero (for those with stocks) again. Let's stop rooting to lose our own dough.
2
Fear not, America. This is just a corrupt official misusing the powers of his office for personal gain, as usual.
6
“Chinese laws” lol~~ the same ones that can put anyone in jail whenever China wants to.
3
President HandsInFist had another tantrum -- wait I thought he was the great negotiator?
2
It seems that the only way Trump knows how to work is to threaten and bully people; his idea of diplomacy is to make threats and cause problems! Whether it is China, North Korea, or even his traditional allies whoever it is he is dealing with must suffer his insults and threats. Oh for the days that American presidents understood that being polite and respectful often got better results than insults do.
5
The continual hatred of our POTUS is on display and it will ensure a landslide victory for him in 2020. Your (liberals) elected officials block, cling to The Hoax and willfully encourage open borders That does not sit well with the very voters that denied Clinton the WH!
We on the other hand like all of the jobs and the growing economy. See you when IG Horowitz’s report comes out!
5
@Chuck: The electoral college denied Clinton the White House, the voters wanted her by a majority of 3 million. The rest of your assertions have no basis in reality either.
9
@Anna - One would think that after 200+ years the Democrats could figure out that it's the Electoral College votes which gets one elected, not the popular vote.
2
@AZPurdue
There have been three elections in which the president was elected by the electoral college and lost the popular vote. One was in the 19th century. The other two were in 2000 (G.W. Bush and 2016 (Donald Trump. The 2000 election was resolved by five (Republicans) to four (Democrats) vote in the Supreme Court.
1
We all know who ultimately pays whatever tariff is levied.
American consumers.
8
"The threats pose a major problem for Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, who had been counting on a trade deal to keep China’s growth engine humming."
What if keeping China's growth engine humming requires a trade surplus with us? If so, our positions are intractable.
Meanwhile, I'd love to see a study of how much more something would cost to make if we made it here. For example, how many hours of labor go into a bicycle, and how much do the workers get paid here and there? Publish the number of hours and the differential, and we can do the addition and make informed decisions. Without numbers, it's all guesswork.
1
As everyone opines as to the damage to America (and its consumers), let's take a brief look at the impact on China, and its vassal states of the western Pacific Rim. There is incredible political unease in China. The Chinese Communist Party comprises only a little over 6% of the population. Meanwhile, rapid economic expansion has brought on a reasonably wealthy middle class (not part of the Party). Very likely, this educated and newly wealthy segment will be recalcitrant to government economic and social crackdowns. If this impasse persists, China is most likely entering a future of turbulent political times. They possibly have the weaker hand.
3
For a minute I thought Tom Friedman was projecting another wrong opinion on the economy. Trump still winning. Dweebs need to give him room to work. He will deliver. He already has
2
I follow the market closely and read what I can about it. This newspaper gives prominent coverage to market drops and is pessimistic about the future, writing repeatedly of an impending recession. The market reached record highs last week. You’d hardly suspect that.
1
Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin had a meeting. Mr. Trump said they discussed trade among other things. It seems to me that this decision on tariffs is the next step in their plan. I believe Mr. Putin is the leader in the decision making process. The goal is to produce more stress in the U.S. population.
3
The headline should read: "Trump shorts the market Friday, tweets on Sunday".
Irresponsible at best; completely crooked at worst. Likely the latter.
15
@Ben K
Yes, perfect market manipulation for shorting - that bears investigation.
I wonder how the Cabinet members' portfolios are looking these days, as well.
1
It is reported that Democrat Joe Biden, 2020 Presidential candidate hopeful said that China is not a threat to the US. For me it sounds like he was actually trying to say China is not a threat to not only to US but to all the liberal democratic free countries around the world.
I was aghast that such a brazenly lying and distorting view of China has been in public expressed by one of the most important political leaders in the U.S.
I mean that his son, Hunter Biden, has been doing business of billions dollars with Chinese government in helping put its citizens under Orwell 1984 style surveillance that we'd never imagined to actually happen in reality is one thing.
But that to protect his family's greedy money ties with communist totalitarian regime of China he is defending one of the obvious greatest threats ever facing liberal democracies in the world is totally different matter and evil thing at the same level as if he is conspiring with the Chinese government for Orwell's 1984 being realized in this world.
I am not a fan of Trump. Yet I cannot agree more with Trump when he said Biden must be a stupid bone head if Biden thinks that China is not a threat to US.
Another sign that 2020 president race would be an very easy unprecedented victory to Trump's second term and that there are still so many corrupting elements being in active in the Democrat side, too.
2
"Trump’s Trade War Threat Poses Problems for China and Investors".
Well....and workers and their families and others in businesses and other concerns hurt by tariffs. It's not all about the investor class, you know.
3
There is no getting around it, if Trump Inc is able to force the Chinese to play by the rules then it will be a big long term win for our economy and the well being of American people.
3
Once again, Trump has only one tool in the toolbox which is "blunt force".
It's not working, and it hasn't worked, but it "plays well" to Trump supporters so he will use it again and again.
Our studies into China during the tariff war show the Chinese to be agile and amazingly responsive. As rapidly as Trump makes mistakes, Xi & his team have figured ways to circumvent Trump's inept efforts and actually profit.
Belt and Road is growing at a pace far in excess of Chinese projections because of Trump's abandonment of former allies and foolish, knee jerk policy changes. They push his buttons like a 5 year old and he reacts every time.
If there was ever an instance where one side was playing checkers and the other chess, this is it. America's power is being drained by Trump. He fired all of the competent people who disagreed with him so we're left with sycophants who are afraid to "buck" Trump's gut feel.
When the US dollar loses its status as "Reserve Currency", our economy will go into free fall. I doubt anyone is even discussing that probability with Trump.
8
@Economics teacher
You are so right.
If his "leadership team" cannot discuss how Russia aided his winning office, I'm sure they cannot discuss how China will aid his losing office.
1
Tariffs aside, it's about time that we voluntarily stay away from buying cheap, defective, Chinese junk.
Can't we give businesses incentives to make stuff here? Or is that what tariffs are all about?
As much as possible, I avoid stuff made in China, (as I type this on a Chinese-made cell phone).
7
@MIKEinNYC ~
At this point, most cheap and defective junk is made elsewhere than China.
1
@MIKEinNYC Who is going to pay for the incentives you want to give businesses to manufacture goods here? We are.
Do you want to pay $500 more for your Chinese-assembled Apple (a US company) iPhone? Or $500 more for your 65 inch 4K LG (Korean) TV? You will when those items are manufactured here.
Now, do I want a fairer trade agreement with China. Who here doesn't. But costs will be passed on to the average American consumer. Not the average Chinese consumer, because he can't afford these items anyway.
I'd love to see a large-screen high-def TV manufactured in the US. I just don't want to pay that much more for it.
2
@slime2
I'd pay more for American-made stuff. If the quality is better then it will break less often and you won't have to buy it repeatedly.
2
Say what you want about Trump. But he has been correct on just about everything regarding the economy and trade. This newspaper has been wrong on just about all of their predictions regarding Trump's policies on the economy and trade. I think I will give the President the benefit of the doubt on this one.
6
@Mauricio Have you checked soy bean futures lately? Have you checked corporate strategic planning in terms of supply chain management of foreign raw resources? I suspect you haven't.
6
@ Steve Corello: Just how might you expect mauricio to "check corporate strategic planning in terms of supply chain management of foreign raw resources"? Is there an app for that? ;-)
1
The importers pay the tariff on goods brought in to the US the consumer pays some or all of the tariff with higher prices at the cash registerr
Look at how the cost of a washing has jumped !!
China does NOT send a buck to the Treasury.
7
Perhaps Mexico can pay the tariffs.
4
America enabled China economically and militarily strong by embracing its society and people over the past 40 years.
...And look what happened? and look what China has done?
China has treated America as its strategic enemy, a giant rock that blocks their journey to world domination.
China has treated Uyghurs as the enemy of state and has taken up to five millions innocent Uyghur and Kazak poeple into the largest concentration camps with Chinese characteristics in violation of its own constitution, Regional Autonomous Law, and and many international agreements on human rights.
You are very naive if you expect China honor its commitment to any Trade Deals with USA.
They are very patient, they will not lose their sight on their goal of world domination.
Be careful, very careful! If you make China strong again America, it will torture many millions of innocent people all over the world in the near future.
2
Bottom line: if any of us had an elderly relative who behaved the way the president of the United States does we'd take away his car keys.
7
Here we go again, right after I’d sort of recovered from the debacle of 45’s childish fits, aka the gov’t shutdown at Christmas. I hope that retirees living on hard earned IRAs and those younger who have 401s realize the profound (negative) effect that 45’s ignorant, ego driven tweets will have on their savings. Vote him and his congressional fools out.
3
This morning in Trump world :
. Send a carrier fleet to try an provoque Iran into a conflict.
. Open his big mouth, in what is an attempt ( only in his mind), to exercise pressure on China to relent and sign a trade agreement.
Consequences in real world :
. European allies worried that Trump will start a conflict with Iran for electoral purposes.
. China ready to walk away from trade talks.
. Stock market plummets.
And let's not forget that our president is attempting to prevent Mueller from testifying.
Here we go for another week of Trump mania, where the ball will land nobody knows... will it be war with Iran... will china walk away... will the stock market loose all its gains... will the Venezuela card be brought back... will Mueller testify... will Sarah Huckabee Sanders finally tell the truth... will Trump finally shut his big mouth... will this madness finally stop...
3
Also, Lighthizer, Mnuchin, way out of their depth here.
Occurs to me that President Trump spoke for an hour with President Putin last week.
Curious.
3
The President deserves credit for standing his ground. He remains the only recent U.S. leader to have set China back on its heels when it comes to trade. Coming to an agreement without the changes being codified in China would be meaningless in the end.
@David Godinez
Well, I guess if you mean that he's forced Americans to pay all those tariff's, you could imagine that it set China back on its heels.
Or you could recognize that its really set American consumers back on their heels.
Americans will pay more for everyday items. This is beyond absurd.
4
You know nothing of tariffs, don snow.
2
The American public pays the tariff 100%. Then the public buys less because they can't afford it. Then American business suffers through lack of sales. Then jobs are lost. Get ready to tighten your belt.
"The masters make the rules
for the wise men and the fools"
From Dylan's "it's alright Ma"
3
Amazing how calm and composed Xi has been ever since Trump began his egotistic trade war with China. It would not be surprising to read a major blow is coming to the GOP/Trump administration. One can publicly embarrass your adversary once or twice, but Trump has gone too far. And one would think our Senators and Congressmen would be ashamed at how America is treating world leaders. We certainly have far too many sheep in Congress, as well as dogs on a leash.
8
We live in our own North Korea now.
We need all hands on deck to elect the only uncorrupt politician, and then hundreds of millions of us need to continuously fight to enact our representation, before elections are completely rigged and protests are illegal too.
9
HEADLINE: "Trump’s Trade War Threat Poses Problems for China and Investors"
PROPOSAL FOR A 'SUB-HEAD': "If not 'them,' everything else he does embarrasses or otherwise hurts most of the rest of us"
5
I have two main questions.
Where are all the billions and billions of dollars collected in tariffs? Trump doesn't do anything with a lot of money flowing into his pockets.
Who is investigating Trump's stock purchases and sales since his presidency began? Is Trump selling short again after additional tariff threats?
15
@Al Garrison Tariff revenues go into the United States Treasury along with all other taxes collected. They go a small way toward offsetting revenue losses from sharp cuts in corporate taxes last year.
I have not seen evidence of the president actively trading stocks while in office.
6
@Keith Bradsher, I understand where the money is supposed to go. The question is did it get there?
Without access to current business and financial records, it's very unlikely you could know which stocks Trump has been trading -- personally or through companies and family.
His refusal to give up operational control of his finances REQUIRES over site.
Thank you for responding in a dignified manner. That's been pretty uncommon over the past couple of years.
5
Keith B, How would you know if Trump is trading stocks under a corporation
he secretly controls? Corporate ownership can be very disguised, doncha know?
3
I worry very little about Trump’s posturing. For those nervous Nellies who have serious TDS, I’d rather have Trump negotiating thus deal than any Democrat alive or dead. He has dealt in international finance and one ups man ship for decades. The Chinese, due to their duplicity, ran rings around BO and the Bushes. It’s about time we gave a guy who knows how the fane is played with the Chinese.
2
@Patrick and China pays all the tariffs, right?
3
@Dra...How many times has he gone bankrupt? But we have to give him credit for the negotiations with North Korea that resulted in de-nuclearization.
5
All his bankruptcies don’t concern you?
3
Our washer broke over the weekend. Went to Lowe’s and was told the washer we looked at last year (we were thinking about it) went up $50 since last year because of tariffs..
Thanks Donald!
12
@Kevin Bitz Yep. American consumers are paying the Tariffs not China as Trump proclaims. Call it Trump tax.
13
@Kevin Bitz the kid selling you a washer drier has no clue about these things
@Kevin Bitz. Buy a washer made in the US. Consider Speed Queen.
3
these things , tariffs and the markets are correlated , there is zero evidence showing that a threat of tariffs caused the market to plunge , meanwhile there is significant evidence that the market is already overvalued , China doesn’t play be the rules of fair trade , Trump is calling them out on it, I approve
6
@Dean Moriarty, actually the evidence is overwhelming. Thousands of stock analysts have been telling their clients and institutions that the tariff war will end soon because a deal is close for weeks now. Now these same investors see that advice may have been wrong so stocks are tanking. The fallacy of your position - that Trump is calling them out on it (something many other politicians have also been doing for years) - is that his approach to stopping it has not yielded any results. That is what matters. Identifying a problem does not mean anything if you do not have a solution to the problem that will be effective.
6
With DJT it’a about the money, his money.
Has anyone considered that Mr. Trump has shorted the stock market and is making millions on his ability to affect said market?
Just one more reason to see his tax returns.
I would love to see the SEC look into DJT and the people around him for evidence of insider trading.
22
Wow. A very very serious case of TDS. Me? I’m taking the long view on behalf of my country.
Sticks & stones will break my bones but names will never hurt me. Trumps threats to raise tariffs by 25%has already created chaos in world markets,. If iTrumps threats come to fruition it will be inflationary that will bring down our economy as well. Once again , Trump is playing with fire , should we hurt the Chinese economy, the Chinese will find other markets to replace us, .There are no winners in any war whether it be a hot war or a cold war.
13
@Independent1776 With the U.S. economy running at full capacity right now, there is some potential for inflation. On the other hand, the tariffs that are collected are used to pay for various government services, from the military to Medicare to a lot else. Tariffs are not inflationary by themselves. And while Chinese exporters are trying hard to develop other markets, the United States remains the world's biggest single-country market.
2
@Keith Bradsher
I agree that the money from tariffs is good for your government coffers, the only problem is that Americans are paying them, not the Chinese.
A good way to look at tariff's is that they're a tax on stupidity since the citizens of the country imposing them, pays them.
6
@Keith Bradsher
A 25% Tarriif will force one of the Companies I do business with to raise their prices 25% if the Chinese retaliate which they will, thus increasing
'the Products used by my products.Which in the end the consumer pays for it. Tell me how this is not inflammatory.
2
The current President has over 40 years of real world overcoming of obstacles and also 40 years of negotiating experience. Trump is creating a "Red Herring" prior to the China negotiations so he has a throw away gambit that can be used in the negotiations. It is all planned and the Chinese President also knows that Trump is doing this so he isn't worried. It is an obvious bluff to use as a chip.
3
@P McGrath
You're giving Trump way too much credit for intelligence he doesn't have. Those 40 years of experience produced 6 bankruptcies and scores of failed companies. Plus too many stiffed contractors and workers to list. Trump's method of negotiating is simply to walk away and sulk while the business crashes. The U.S. isn't a business and if it crashes so do we all. The Chinese president is playing 3-dimensional chess while Trump is trying to figure out tic-tac-toe.
21
@P McGrath
Trump has a plan? Now that is funny.
4
@P McGrath On the other hand, the Chinese have hundreds of years experience in dealing with people like the president.
Watch him reverse course once they show their teeth!
4
Trump to Jared: "Buy like crazy, son -- I'm gonna reverse this tomorrow and the markets'll zoom back up."
13
Serious TDS.
TDS - “Trump Denial Syndrome.” See “shooting people on Fifth Avenue.” No cure for ... blindness.
2
It's Monday, Trump's favorite day to sew chaos: Tariffs on China and no Muller interview for "the Dems" redo. Such a burden on Americans who have to reserve their strength for the imminent royal birth. Yup, while Trump is destroying any semblance of democracy, Americans are watching the British baby thing and their Netflix movies. We should be in the streets demanding Trump's ouster.
"The death of democracy is not likely to be an assassination from ambush. It will be a slow extinction from apathy, indifference, and undernourishment." Robert Hutchins
20
Gee thanks, Mr Trump. You inherited a great and growing economy and low unemployment and it remains that way despite you and your actions. We all know that stock markets are not the measure of the economy. There are millions that have no money in the stock market at all and who are not able to take advantage of the growth and are suffering. There are millions of us preparing for retirement that do. And now this?
How much damage can you do before the stock market and our economy crashes? Are you trying to find out?
18
@Deborah He will reverse course as soon as his "base" starts screaming. No policy, just a game for him!
3
"The Tariffs paid to the USA have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China." [ Trump tweet, May 5th]
If a student in Economics 102 were to include this sentence in a paper, they would be given a null grade i.e. Zero, sent back to Econ 101: Basics, and given a probationary warning on their record.
The Great Deal Maker has no conception of the mechanics of World trade.
He also has no knowledge of Chinese history and their unwavering determination to never take orders from a foreign power again.
39
@P.C.Chapman @P.C.Chapman Yes, and when they get their innings -- as they will -- they'll remember how America tried to bully them.
3
By now the Chinese know how to engineer these "deals." Make promises to do everything they are asked to do, hold lavish state dinners with high level invited guests, and stand before cameras smiling.
Trump will announce that he has "won." The base cheers. Then.... nothing happens.
Trump will lie about what he has achieved, while the base will believe his every word and ridicule skepticism as fake news.
I've seen this story before.
33
@cjg Maybe they've met their equal this time: Trump is capable of lying at their exalted level of dishonesty.
Trump threatens to close the border with Mexico and the price of avocados skyrockets. Thanks to Trump, threats of sanctions against countries buying Iranian oil sends us deeper into our pockets filling our fuel tanks. There will be impacts to our personal and global economies with this latest move to increase tariffs on Chinese goods. Those of us who are paying attention to our bleeding bank accounts and diminishing investments are not the 1 per-centers wreaking havoc, we are the victims of a lack of impulse control in a very high place.
14
When all the dust settles and the trade war is over, just imagine how much money investors will have made.
Buy low, sell high.
Is trump and his ilk trying to manipulate the global marketplace to their advantage? Isn't this exactly what trump has been saying about China?
10
This situation emphasizes once again why foreign policy can not be done scatter brained policies conveyed by tweet. Negotiations can have no substance when the negotiators will be undermined by a voice on high undermining everything t hey have at a moment's whim. There is no sense of having negotiations at all when everyone knows that their decisions will be rendered meaningless by an arbitrary egotistical boss who has decided his word only matters.
10
Trump again is not telling the truth. The additional tariffs 10% or 25% are not being paid by China. Not one cent!! The tariffs are additional charges levied at American ports of entry. The AMERICAN importer is paying those additional tariffs. Not the Chinese!
Those additional costs are passed on from the importer, to the retailer, and finally to the consumer. The American people are paying those tariffs. So when you hear how much money the federal government is collecting from the tariffs, it is the AMERICAN PEOPLE who are paying. Just like another tax. The Chinese are paying nothing.
31
@Jeff - Correct. The Moral Monster in charge and his shills let him lie about who bears the brunt of these arbitrary tariffs.
We have a *very small business (<$1M USD) manufacturing protective boots and suits for dogs and cats in the vet/pet industries. We have been able to pass on the 10% to our customers, but 25% is beyond what our fragile market can absorb.
4
@Jeff that’s actually not correct at all
@Dean Moriarty
Please enlighten us as to why that's not true.
The IMPORTER pays the tariff's, not the exporter.
If an American company buys something from China that has a tariff, the American company pays the tariff.
The American company then either loses money or passes the costs on to the consumer.
The Chinese don't pay a cent as they're the exporter.
4
"For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results." Trump's quote...Of course it is Americans who pay the tariff, but that's not all. In no small measure, do to the China tariffs, the price of corn at the elevator today is $3.40 per bushel. Ten years ago it was $5.02 (corrected for inflation). The break even price for a 200 bu/per acre yield is $3.23 (200 bu/acre is a higher than the average yield). What that means is that the corn farmer has lost more than 90% of their income. Their may be great economic results some places, but not in farm country.
33
@W.A. Spitzer And in that "farm country" there is no longer ANY prosperity off the farm. All of the local cities are fallow. Virtually any industry has long since been closed and relocated to the western rim of Asia or Mexico. Farm equipment is now made in India, South Korea, Japan and China. Places where there are very few large enough fields to efficiently operate them. Welcome to the new America.
6
@W.A. Spitzer
" What that means is that the corn farmer has lost more than 90% of their income. "
Is this before or after the subsidies they got last year (as compensation for their losses)?
2
@W.A. Spitzer
Unfortunately "farm country" here in California is also Trump country. Go figure.
3
This is nothing but an attempt to distract us from the real threat he feels from the investigation by Congress. Typical Trump: risk a war (trade or military) just to make people forget his own crimes.
54
This can go in to the category of one of those stories that is important to a very small percentage of Americans. Poor people are poor and have nothing to lose or gain from Trump's manipulations. They will remain poor because they are the great cowed masses who most of all are very wary of angering their corporate overlords.
Personally I do not believe we live in a land of laws. It is clear that the criminal justice system is political and was likely always intended as a system to protect the powerful and to subjugate the weak.
One should know by now that Trump is not going to increase tariffs. He is simply manipulating the market for his family and friends and he covers it by making it appear he is doing so as a run up strategy to the trade talks with China.
Technically speaking, the FBI and the CIA should be investigating Trump constantly and should have a permanent tap on his phone because of his suspicious activity. However, he now owns the FBI and the justice department who are just a bunch of right wing flunkies.
24
@Chris
Trade wars impact everyone, poor or rich. Unless you’re eating food you grow organically from property you own, generate energy with renewables on your home or wear cloths you made from your sheep you sheared, imports (and exports) impact everyone.
True that the poor are impacted differently than the wealthy, but there is no limit to how difficult their lives can get.
11
@Chris "Technically speaking," the GOP never should have allowed Trump to enter the primaries. I dislike the man intensely. He's a liar, cheat, though, should a category be added to the Olympics for the world's greatest conman, Trump should be awarded the gold. One of the great pillars of a functioning democracy is freedom of the press. For the man to constantly attack journalists, singling out those that fall from his good graces due to their accurate reporting, proves he's addicted to autocratic behavior. Any reader who's interested in studying the results of the trade war that prolonged the Great Depression, should Google "The Smoot Hawley Tariff Bill." US initiated tariffs on imports was matched by trading partners placing, tit-for-tat, match on US exports. Global trade decreased by -60% and turned a severe recession into the Great Depression. It's virtually impossible to measure the damage Trump has caused to our country's reputation. Hopefully, he'll be removed from office in the next election. Regardless, he has to go!
3
I would suggest that the SEC begin investigations into DJT and people around him to see if he is shorting the stock market and manipulating it with his tweets.
Follow the money!
Sad.
3
Interesting that last week North Korea fired a couple misses into the ocean. Perhaps this was an indication that China is firmly in control in North Korea and was using North Korea to send a message to America to make concessions in trade negotiations or the North Koreans will go crazy again.
4
With its highways and pipelines to Europe, its bases in the South China Sea, and the US having acceded Asian trade cooperation, China is on a path to grow to be the preeminent world economic and military power in spite of any actions by the United States. In the short run, tariffs will only hurt US consumers.
15
@LWKI can see that many in Europe are also ready to also put the foot down against China’s predatory economic practices, as they should have done a long time ago. Trump is right on this!
1
@heinrichz, how is he right? Every recent president has cited these predatory practices. Obama actually addressed some but not all of them. This tariff war has done NOTHING to address it. Why do you like seeing so many farmers and manufacturers lose their markets as has happened over the last year?
4
This trade war is fun. So far at least, I don't feel a thing. And it makes for good press. Look, I lived through the Bush Great Recession, this is nothing compared to that fiasco.
4
@Steve - One added thought, Trump's handling of the economy in comparison with the Bush Administration makes him look like a candidate for the the Nobel Peace Prize in Economics.
If he can keep the US from exporting hogs, corn and soybeans to China the price of bacon should come down to about a $1.00 a pound.
2
@Steve I think you are forgetting trump's increase of the national debt by one TRILLION dollars a year. Basically trump is funding a slight increase at growth on a credit card. And you know he isn't going to pay the bill... we are.
8
@Steve
Wait for it...and unless you’re totally self sufficient, you’ve been impacted by the trade war. You might not be aware of it, but if you either eat beef/pork/poultry use petroleum products and cool/heat your home you’ve been impacted just like the rest of us.
2
I'm someone who has no experience with negotiating with foreign powers but I know enough not to threaten China out in the open. They will not take kindly this this hostile talk.
14
Its called exploiting leverage in a negotiation. The Chinese are recalcitrant on issues involving intellectual property and forced sharing of technology. Time to put the screws to them. They have been putting the screws to us for decades.
Dow futures drop by under 2%. No big deal. Stock traders are always focused more on the short term than the long term. We are trading a little short term pain for a lot of long term gain.
4
@RM
The arrangement with China was the following. They would manufacture US corporations’ goods which provided for more flexible production of quality products at a lower wage.
China got revenue and direct and indirect employment for themselves. They negotiated hard and received intellectual property rights after a time to produce products themselves; oh, US corporations were just fine with that- go online and see Bieing’s glowing announcements of how proud they were to assist Chinas aeronautics knowledge.
The US got quality products at a nice big profit margin; Apple has a gross margin of 37% on its consumer, electronics. Their choice was either to pass that onto consumers, increase their workers earning, grow liquid assets(cash), or pay their top management and stockholders with increasing share prices.
Yes, Chiba is more dependent on exports as we are a consumer based economy. The trade arrangements had benefits for each country’s different economies.
And, no this isn’t short term. Just one item under agriculture. China because of the US tariffs is increasing sourcing soybeans from South America. After decades of US farmers assuring soybean trade with China, that demand won’t be coming back, ever! In the 1970s the US did this to Japan...they did the same thing and there’s lots of Japanese soybean acreage in Brazil to this day.
4
How about putting the screws to them behind the scenes. Rather than broadcast on twitter and whipsawiing the markets. And I will answer that for you...Because people in his inner circle are profiting. That's why.
1
Hahahaha
1
It is obvious that Mickey Mouse is in the White House. We are in trouble.
10
We are all at the mercy of Trump's Id.
25
The king wannabe has no patience and for that we all suffer. Congress needs to impeach this disaster now, both House and Senate. Republicans need to grow up and protect our country by joining the House in voting for impeachment.
8
Selfish. Boorish. Unhinged. Undisciplined. Ignorant. Corrupt.
These are the perfect attributes for failure in any negotiation.
The Chinese know Trump all too well to take the bait of this 11th hour bullying to get his way.
11
Wag The Dog!
Trump will do anything to avoid impeachment. Including throwing America under the bus.
Don't be fooled, Trump cares nothing for America. He doesn't believe America's destiny is connected to his own. It's okay for America's economy to be destroyed. He will just retreat back into his own money. That's what he thinks (delusional).
38
American consumers need to fully understand that "THEY" pay the tariffs being inflicted by trump. Somehow he doesn't seem to grasp that, or just doesn't care.
30
Whether the latest threat of raising tariffs on the Chinese goods is a ploy of Trump to extract better trade deal or otherwise, what Trump fails to grasp is the basic antagonism between the US and China that emanates from the clash of ambitions rooted in the Chinese desire to replace the US as the Premier World power in all aspects-political, economic, and techno-miliatary-and the stubborn resistance by the latter to yield such space to the former. Thus even if China concedes ground to the US on the current trade round as a tactical move, its long term strategy will never allow it to settle on a lasting trade truce with the US. The two are bound to come to confront sooner than expected.
7
Oh, problems at home? Time for a topic change to China and trade. This President is tedious beyond belief. Any name calling yet? Belittling name calling? Maybe he saves that up for Americans only. Woo-hoo!
12
I am amazed by the stupidity of so many commenters here. They obviously have a lack of of financial/economic theory knowledge as well as an undying hatred of Trump.
The Chinese economy has grown at warp speed in large part due to a huge balance of trade surplus with the US. Indeed, the US has financed this growth. The Chinese steal our intellectual property and have made full access to their markets nearly impossible. Trump is talking tough - something Sen. Schumer has backed - to move these talks faster than the current snail pace. That said, since the tariff policy started, our economy's growth has accelerated. The wind is at our back and the Chinese know it.
11
The thing is, this ‘trade deal’ does nothing to stop the spying/theft, nor does it seem to address human rights. In the end, what will really be gained here, since it is the US consumer who pays the tariff?
25
@MCH
I am amazed by the stupidity of your comment.
China's strong productivity growth, spurred by the 1978 market-oriented reforms, is the leading cause of China's unprecedented economic performance.
4
@MCH
I am amazed that you believe Trump would actually do something to benefit our country and not himself. Then, why not do it all himself? Why does he have a team negotiating? They must all be stupid, too. The reality is that he likes to throw last minute chaos into everything. Sometimes, a distraction, sometimes, I think because he just likes to, sometimes because he has no patience and thinks he knows more than anyone else, even his own advisors. The stupidity is in those who believer otherwise.
2
In the end, the US would have fared better w/the TPP, but Trump had to destroy that, b/c, you know, Obama.
42
@Lev Umm, Hilary Clinton and all the Dems were against TPP as well. Why didn't you mention that?
This is our world: An ignorant president deals with his anxieties by tweeting out threats that send markets into panic. His foreign policy chief announces the dispatch of military forces around the world without any explanation or authorization. And we await further exposure of the president's crimes while his GOP accomplices prevaricate and spread lies, trying to divert attention. This is not normal and calamity threatens us all.
25
This is just Trump creating another diversion to direct attention away from the Mueller report and his orders to diobey subpoenas.
12
The real cost of all of this is to Americans, as we will have to pay more for the things we buy. With Chinese products being charged a tariff the American companies raise their prices. So, either way, you're paying more. There goes all of the money Trump says will be in our pockets from the Tax Cut. Plus, our farmers, and similar businesses, are losing out on not selling their crops to China. And, China is looking to buy elsewhere to satisfy their needs. MAGA, wake up Trumpites.
14
Markets are in turmoil again.
He just can't keep his mouth (or more precisely, his twitter feed) shut.
I'm sure his family and friends (like his pal Vladimir) were front running the news.
2
The soy bean market, like the pigs in China are being destroyed by African swine fever. Trump has been banking on price stabilization for US farmers before the election. The demand won't be there.
Trump was banking on Chinese purchases of Soy beans and liquified gas prior to the 2020 election to restore his credibility in Mid western agricultural states. The demand simple won't be there as long as China continues to cull their inventory of sick pigs.
There is no deal that benefits President Trump re-electionat this point. They have to figure out another end game. Transferring tariffs on American consumers to big agriculture is the easy way out.
2
You are hilarious, NYT.
The positioning of this article implies that China is at a disadvantage and weaker position when compared to the US in both the trade war and the negotiations to end it.
You imply that China's economy is slowing due to the trade war and not due to bubble deflating policies set and executed on purpose by the government of China.
You imply that the government of China needs and is desperate for a deal with the United States, and that it would be economically devastated if such a deal fails to come about due to "American negotiating strength".
These are why I find NYT articles less a reporting of fact and more a reporting of opinion, and not even very reasonable and sensible opinion at that.
Just let me remind the NYT on two little things.... firstly, the United States runs two major deficits - an enormous trade deficit with the rest of the world, and an enormous government budgetary deficit, and secondly - the US is a nation of spenders and consumers, not savers unlike China. The United States has a total national debt of over 400% and probably approaching 500% of GDP per annum.
China is actually in a position of STRENGTH in this trade talks. She has all the economic leverage on her side, and a full scale trade war may burn her, but only mildly, while it will cover the US in scalds from head to toe.
I just wish that sometimes, the Chinese government should stop playing grown-up with the US and give them a taste of their rough-playing medicine.
11
bad news everywhere. someone needs to see if this admin is shorting America. His actions seem to point to chaos. We've known the GOP has wanted a War with Iran in forever. Goes back to Bush and the Benjamin's. oops there i go again.
4
@Boyd
Interesting thing to contemplate: Are the Trumps shorting the markets? I wouldn't in the least bit be surprised.
4
Trump needs to stick in a big shame Tax to please his resentment-saturated followers. So they can gloat that some wound was delivered to the pride of China. But I’m fact it shows a sophisticated negotiator that the counter party’s is probing how far they can go. It implies the negotiation is meaningless and just trickery towards an unfair outcome. It demands the negotiator defect. This will harm both economies. But accomplish trumps desire for “war” with China. China and Europe are the ‘soft targets’ for the strongmen. Better get together.
2
@Hilary Koob-Sassen
Trump walks into his rallies wearing a suit he had made in one of his sweatshops overseas (one of which is in China), and his followers cheer him on as he recites racially charged nonsense.
Don't count on his most devote followers, as well as the oil lobbyists in addition to Goldman Sachs (most of his financial experts in his cabinet worked there) who are now on his side, to be for anyone else any time soon.
At this juncture, what his fans love the most about him, evidently, is nationalistic tendency towards racist remarks and making everyone but them the "other".
9
In modern times at least, US presidents have gone out their way to avoid serious international conflict for the sake of national stability if not world peace. After WW1 and WW2, no one has wanted WW3 ... Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan have been, tragically, far more than enough. But with Trump, it’s constantly looking for a fight. Worse, he shows himself to be basically an angry individual. Added to that, he seems to consider he can act with impunity. He surely is not trustworthy. Not to say that trade policy with China isn’t highly important to focus on for the purpose of fairness (like immigration, actually); but with Trump it’s doubtful we’ll get to where we justly ought to be. Trump’s instability, which may have an organic basis, is clearly of concern. He is, whatever the cause, a harmful presence; but “we,” through the system we have, elected him to represent us ... a sobering thought for where to go from here ... if we’re lucky.
8
I do not agree with 45 on most of his tactics and positions but this time he is holding some pretty good cards. So far any negative impact on US equity market of his tariffs with China have been nominal over their tenor. The increased costs to the end consumer have gone up but US economic indicators show end customer ambivalence/ignorance of the increase in their price. Xi's in a box, I would not say his position within the Standing Committee is strong and they will determine his future within the Party. Xi's popularity with the people will take a massive hit if China GDP goes down to 2% annually. While they don't vote, economic unrest is something that seriously scares the CCP. I've lived and worked in China where negotiating, due to the lack of law, is all about leverage. Right now, 45's got the leverage and Xi does not. Could Xi call off the talks and play the China vs the Western world card? He could but I don't think he's got the leverage within the party and with the people to pull it off and come out the other side.
1
@Felix8ball.... Tariffs manifest themselves as increased consumer costs. How is that helpful to consumers orour economy ?
9
@Nicholas DeLuca Agreed and I noted the increased costs.
Ok please go back to economics 101. The rest of the worlds just want a level playing field in China and not be force to transfer technology to the Chinese. Why is a foreign companies need to have a partner when they don't need it? I hate Trump but if his trades goes thru with the Chinese in favors of True free trade then I will vote for him. China need to stop stealing others country's technologies. Point blank. What have China created to help the world in the last 50 years accepted stealing others people ideas.
When Donald Trump was a self described big player in the quasi-legal world of commercial real estate, he would use stunts equivalent to that to try to force a deal on someone. That resulted in multiple bankruptcies and thousands of lawsuits for the stable genius.
Now, he's at it again just after his own negotiators said they were close to a deal. That's insanity or malevolence, take your pick. Either way, we all lose.
23
We always assume that the President is actually trying to find solutions for the "trade wars" that he generated but that might be a misconception.His recent tweet appears to suggest that the income generated by his tariffs is his real goal. Such a simplistic and superficial approach would be - unfortunately - well within "character" of the current President.
10
Using tariffs as trade weapons is a risky strategy, but it did bring the Chinese to the negotiating table.
So, now, back off the threats and rhetoric, Mr. President. Both sides are talking and have an interest in coming to agreement, and by all accounts, some sort of agreement is in sight.
Don’t disrespect your negotiating partner!
Nothing good can come of that.
13
Disrespect? China have been stealing technology from other countries for decades, lets the trade war begin, see who will come out better. And yes I hate Trumb. this is the only issue that will make me love him.
Trump has a very high tolerance for risk. He tries things without great calculation, confident that he can manage whatever happens. He's also confident that everyone else is more risk averse than he is, which he expects will give him an advantage in managing whatever happens.
That is how he became President, for example. He never expected to win. He just tried it on, confident he could manage whatever came of it to the advantage of his branding empire.
That is what he is doing to China. However, Xi's risk aversion is very calculated, and backed by a lot more people calculating than anything Trump uses. Xi is an opponent of an entirely different sort than Trump has dealt with before, as one might expect of the guy who rose to be absolute ruler of 1.4 billion people, about 20% of the whole world's population. Trump is playing games with him.
Maybe Trump's position is strong enough that he can run big risks and manage whatever comes of it. Maybe. He has always been comfortable running such risks. Of course, sometimes he went broke and Daddy had to bail him out.
16
If one were to know exactly when the "trade war" rhetoric would heat up, one could make a killing in the stock market over time by selling right before the rant, and repurchasing just before calm was being restored.
Could this possibly be the reason why Trump doesn't want anyone to see his financials? Or are there major investors whose trade patterns track the patterns of Trump's hot/cold rhetoric?
22
Trump is playing with fire. He thinks that since the US economy is strong, he can pressure the Chinese economy to the point of shrinking it to our advantage. The Chinese economy is our economy and vice versa. If these sanctions do reduce Chinese GDP, ours will suffer too.
One of the most infuriating things Trump keeps saying about his tariffs is that he claims China is paying them. No they are not! Any company or individual that buys Chinese goods pay them. Tariffs are essentially a tax that the American consumer pays.
I'm in the electronics business. China is a major global supplier of electronic parts. I'm already feeling the impact of the 10% tariffs which is cutting into my profit margins. I haven't raised prices yet. But there is no way any producer of goods, from the smallest to the largest can absorb a 25% increase in parts costs without raising prices. None of us have that kind of profit margin that can tolerate such a huge increase in input costs. This will put all domestic electronics manufacturers at a severe competitive disadvantage to all other foreign producers.
And the most maddening aspect of all is that none of this production will move back to the US. Those plants closed decades ago. Even if it did, we could not produce at under the tariff rate. What will happen is that some production will move to Vietnam, or the Philippines, or Thailand or elsewhere and no American jobs will be created.
153
@Bruce Rozenblit Excellent analysis. The importer pays the tariff and passes the additional cost along, eventually landing on the consumer. If people think that importers and resellers are going to eat the additional costs of the tariffs, they probably believe everything that Trump says.
11
@Bruce Rozenblit. Your comment should be a Times pick!
And should be posted on Fox and other right wing websites. It's terrible that so many Americans are ignorant when it comes to economics (well, on civics, science and history also ...)
1
Naive. This is a thoroughly distracting, but it has so much more potential. Market manipulation and exploitation are the norm under Trump. The big play is China, but there’s money to be made from Trump’s saber rattling in the oil patch where Iran and Venezuela are targets but money is the real goal. Tycoons don’t have to take over the Iranian or Venezuelan oil to make a buck. All Trump has to do is disrupt supply or the perception of supply disruption. Russia loves this. Putin can’t stop laughing. Putin knows that Trump can’t force Europe to resume sanctions on Iran unless Russia fills the oil needs....and Russia’s new best friends in Venezuela can tank America’s gasoline supply and ruin the summer.
China is a tough nut. American masters of the universe should consider the gamble. The gamble is, can anyone trust Trump or his instincts? Will the Chinese economy unravel fast enough to give Trump a “win”? Or will the US markets topple? Or will China foment a disastrous incident with Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam Nam or North Korea when it needs the domestic support to weather an economic “correction”? There’s a lot of money to be made on the “short” and “long” side of the turmoil. One thought that is plaguing: do the Chinese and the Russians need Trump to stay in the presidency, and if so....
5
I view this through the lens of corruption, or in other words, an analysis of how Trump is abusing the law to gain personally.
He is known to manipulate the stock market as detailed in the long expose about his family published earlier.
He operates in the open like a mob boss.
In my opinion, there is no question he and his cronies are pushing the market up and down to make money both ways and we have every reason to suspect he has enlisted the Chinese leaders in this, and gained their blessing. Why wouldn't they want to profit from it too? We have plenty of reason to suspect the same kind of inside dealing between this administration Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
The joke of a "China deal" will only be made when Trump feels it is necessary to save the stock market from a fall he can't control in any other way.
Trump got away with working with Russia to steal the US election. This "trade war" manipulation is small peanuts compared to that. As far as Trump is concerned, he can get away with anything, and who can blame him for being who he is when there is no one willing to uphold the law in this country these days.
26
What grade in economics in college did Trump get in school. That should have been brought out during the campaign and i remember Mr Cohen telling the investigators he warned the college don’t say anything about Mr Trumps grades. He threatened legal action. Bring it out now before its to late i suspect it is too late. Very sad how corrupt men in the GOP get to be President.
8
Trump has taken a leaf from the gangster playbook which he learned from Roy Cohn. The only thing he hasn’t done -yet- is to send his goons to whack his opponents. But that’ll come.
16
Trump is doing one of his routines.
Call it the N. Korea routine.
Blow up disagreements with tough sounding talk, then strike a deal that is far from acceptable and brag that he averted a crisis.
34
Trump does not understand how the Chinese think and does not understand how they keep winning.
The main concern of the Chinese leadership is to avoid public embarrassment ("save face"). Trump thinks that publicly embarrassing them ("making them lose face") is going to make them do what he wants them to do. It's not going to work. The Chinese are telling him in negotiations (according to this article) that they will do what he wants, but it can't be done through the legislature because it will be too embarrassing, so he publicly demands that it be done through the legislature.
The Chinese don't have a trade surplus because of tariffs. The Chinese have a trade surplus because they pick winners and they back them with public money, investing in new technologies, often stolen from America.
If America invested in the technologies that we invented, like solar power, we would dominate the fields that we invented. But for decades, Republicans (and the centrist Democrats that compromise with them) have refused to "pick winners and losers," letting the Chinese government pick winners, them, and losers, us.
Notice none of this involves embarrassing public attacks on public officials. It is all done subtly.
While the USA is spending trillions attacking countries around the world, the Chinese are quietly going around the world investing in third world countries, while the Party of Trump insists that investing in foreign countries is a waste of money.
Learn from the Chinese
349
@McGloin exactly, like a wall paid by Mexico vs helping to address the root of the problem in Central America we could be showing more leadership in our continent. Constructive cooperation & leadership internationally vs combative.
48
The command economy has always worked better than the random chaotic sham capitalism that the US has. For as long as the leadership is enlightened, or at least smart, ruling with a heavier hand got peoples further, faster. When you're ruled by morons you go bankrupt.
20
@McGloin
Trump has forgotten how the world works. Whatever happens with the trade deal, China will find ways to grow, investing in infrastructure all over the world and making “friends” in the process. Trump has also forgotten his promises. Imagine the results we might have had if he had in fact launched a huge infrastructure push here at home. I am reminded, by Garrison Keillor, who writes today: “On this day in 1935, Franklin Roosevelt created the Works Progress Administration, which over the next eight years employed 8.5 million out-of-work people building roads, bridges, parks and public buildings.”
39
Trump sees no reason to end this trade war in 2019, and lots of reasons to end it as close to the 2020 election as possible. The timing of the eventual deal is unilaterally in his control and he’ll want to juice the economy as close to the election as he can. Settling now and then getting the economic benefits today (and slowly thereafter) doesn’t help his re-election bid as much as doing in, say, August of 2020 and then bragging about the contemporaneous economic boost during the last months of the campaign.
7
So should we feel sorry for investors?
3
Anyone with a 401k, IRA, or other investment vehicle will despise Trump today, and every day he sends out his idiotic tweets that threaten the world economy.
I say, keep it up, and before you know it, his approval will plummet further into the black hole.
18
@cherrylog754
Why should they despise Trump? The stock market is booming and a very minor drop will be history by Friday. Don't be such a party pooper.
Tax Day and Cohen Presser moved off the front page? Maybe there is a bit more to the job than trying to push the least bad headline.
2
Many people are talking about the extent of insider trading by White House connections.
A Sunday Twitter tariff announcement, which has rocked the markets prior to the Monday opening, is a bonanza for those who took "appropriate" positions on Friday.
This is a disgrace. The president should be ashamed of himself.
46
@Samm
Reptiles feel no shame. He should be impeached
2
Trump is planning to punch American consumers in the face over and over until China agrees to his terms. Somehow I don't think it will work.
13
Tariffs are what weak leaders use as a negotiating tool and history has shown that they never work the way they we intended. Trump doesn't study history or anything else. I hope they call his bluff and make him look like the fool he is.
4
The problem with negotiating with a thoroughly nasty liar whose word means nothing is to assess the degree to which agreement actually means anything.
10
I think everyone should look at the posts and the timing of the posts below and realize the trolls are alive and well.
1
Trump is the greatest President ever! Start making plans to expand Mt. Rushmore.
1
I think the president has exactly the same idea. Maybe just a larger image.
2
@Jim He is already represented there by the detritus lying at the base of the mountain from the original carving. It symbolizes the shape the country will be in when he is finally kicked out of office like so many of his failed business misadventures.
4
If only Donald Trump wasn't hiding from the American people the Trump Organization's proftable advantage arising from his occupation of the Oval office of the White House in his personal, family and business income tax returns and business records then the American people would know the true motivations behind Trump's " trade war" with China.
Russia if you are listening can you please share that information with the American people?
China? Israel? North Korea?
Where does Trump's Mar-a-Lago business end and Trump's White House Administration begin?
6
Trump, Kushner and friends brokerage accounts should be investigated for insider trading. Did they position themselves on Friday for the market plunge on Monday?
17
Trump is on the right side of this issue. If China can't agree to fundamental reform on theft of intellectual property and some of their other unfair practices then given our healthy economy if there is every such a thing as " a good time for a trade war" now is it. And despite whatever talk comes of Beijing they have far more to lose them we do in this. The tacit bargain that keeps the autocrats in power there is growing the economy to meet the needs of workers leaving the countryside coming to the cities every year. If they can't do it they whole system starts coming part and end result involves the leaders getting lead through the streets with big dunce caps on their heads. The leadership is old enough to have seen it before and realize how much they have to lose. The only question is whether their economy can function if they play by fair rules with their international partners.
5
@Todd what are your thoughts on Trump saying that China is paying the US via tariffs when that is not what is happening? To me it sounds like he does not understand tariffs and does not know what he is doing. Tariffs are paid to the US government by US importers who then either pass the price increase to consumers, or companies move production to other countries where the US is not imposing tariffs on (e.g. Vietnam). Meanwhile China put opposing tariffs in place at their end. This approach is not good for the US nor world economy.
7
Clearly that is not how tariffs work. But it doesn't matter. The Chinese have been taking advantage of us forever and it has to stop. There are estimates that they have been stealing 500 billion dollars of intellectual property from US companies a year. Putting a stop to that makes the risks of even a full blown trade war worth it.
1
I wonder if people with inside knowledge of Trump’s threats on trade did any short-selling. Is that was what the phone call to Putin was about? Can a president be impeached for insider trading?
15
Do the Trump-Republican import tariff increases really impact China? NO!
The Trump-Republican tax increase on imports from China are levied and paid at the port entry.....that means US Consumers are the one's who pay these tax increase and NOT the Chinese.
I imainge that Trump and his base actually believe the import tariffs are paid by China - they are NOT!
5
@citizenUS....notchina, it's not Trump who doesn't understand the impact of tariffs--it's folks like YOU--who are more invested in bashing Trump, than understanding economics.
Tariffs make certain countries' products more expensive--therefore less competitive when they reach our shores. Companies are leaving China--looking to manufacture in countries whereby they can avoid the tariffs.
The only reason China is interested in negotiating a new trade deal, is because Trump will cause their economy great harm if they don't. Show a little patriotism--and a little wisdom on this, won't you? Support your president on this.
1
@Jesse The Conservative
Tariffs are hurting us as much as them. One study by the Federal Reserve, Princeton and Columbia Universities says the tariffs have raised costs to American consumers by $1.4 billion a month. And the Brookings Institution estimates that 61% of U.S. jobs affected by retaliatory tariffs are in counties that voted for Trump.
12
@Jesse The Conservative - "Companies are leaving China--looking to manufacture in countries whereby they can avoid the tariffs." Sure, that hurts China.The revenue, however, that the US government gets from the US importers who pay the tariffs goes away if US companies move. That helps the companies themselves and the shareholders, but does not bring more revenues in for the US. Trump said publicly that China has been paying the US billions in tariffs, which is untrue and is not how tariffs work. Is Trump lying, or is he just not knowledgeable of how tariffs work? Overall there are some good and bad things tariffs will do but the net-net is pretty close to zero. Not unpatriotic, just fact.
6
Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act ring any bells?
4
Isn't Twitter great? Thanks for the heads up, Trump. I'd better buy those new appliances for my June kitchen remodel soon, before the Chinese tariffs bump up to 25% on Friday. Good grief.
7
Trump has to be tough with China.
This grandstanding though is counterproductive. Better for the trade team to quietly act very tough (Steve Mnuchin not the right guy to do this!!) and Trump to be good guy. The optics suggest it has inverted and Trump is the bad guy.
We need the right trade deal not just a minor tweak - one that protects key US industries from theft and blackmail by China. US companies are not just competing with Chinese companies but also with the Chinese government which makes for a very one-sided battle in the market. Trump is right to step up - now we need to stay strong and get a "win".
1
His team told him they were close to a deal. Trump, in his infantile and narcissistic way, had to put the spotlight back on himself. He just can't stop himself.
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@Spucky50
And he's making it harder for China to agree to the deal without losing face.
2
I’ve been running a trade deficit with my grocer for years now.
8
Pay no attention to the shiny object, which is a distraction from the Mueller investigation. Once again Trump is changing the subject when he runs out of excuses for his terrible term as President.
Trying to hold on to "manufacturing" jobs, which have never been more than 10% of the total employment base, in unsafe, unhealthy facilities belching and vomiting smoke and chemicals is not an option. Move on.
12
We could thank the Chinese for their efforts to educate our president and his toadies about international decorum. Probably a futile effort on their part, but at last they tried.
When talk about tariffs began last year, it was in the time frame of the passage of the big tax bill. I have several wealthy neighbors who will make big bucks off their tax cuts. In the mean time, they lambasted tariffs as a Democratic job protection scheme. Yes, they were sincere (ly misinformed). When I pointed out that tariffs had a lot of uses, but by mechanism they are a tax on consumption. In this case, as import tariffs, they were going to tax the middle class for every day manufactured goods that come from China.
Since Chinese tariffs were enforced, I've heard administration claims that they are making billions for the treasury and not costing the economy anything. Does any of this make sense to people who shop for themselves?
Things could get really ugly for the American consumer in about as long as it takes for a cargo ship to cross the Pacific.
9
Very little is known about the non-transparent policies and positions of the Trump administration. Virtually everything about this negotiation is based on conjecture which is in turn based on past issues.
To a large extent the Trump emphasis is on balance of trade accounting while issues such as safeguarding technology, climate change, human rights and the environment go unaddressed. We seem to be focusing on the issues of the 80's and 90's while the 21st century has burst upon us.
As a result the resulting agreement will serve the interests of no one. We will sell the Chinese more soy beans and they will continue their dominance in manufacturing. Our balance of trade deficit will temporarily be reduced but manufacturing in the US will continue to erode. Our companies operating in China will continue to be bled of the lifeblood of technology.
The Chinese will continue to be the world's largest source of greenhouse gasses and their economic juggernaut will be powered by 18th century fuels. Chinese growth will be modulated by a return to the mean and their huge masses of people will continue to have lower standards of living. They will continue to repress minorities.
Trump seems to have gotten the attention of the Chinese by playing hardball. It is unfortunate that we are losing an opportunity to make some progress on these global issues while only pasting over shorter term problems.
2
Speaking of "trade war" Trump certainly does not object to manufacturing his own goods in sweatshops over in China, nor is he opposed to obtaining more Trump trademarks to use in China while he's been office.
13
It's called negotiating. As the byline states, Trump's pressure is creating headaches for China's economy and they are finally paying a price for their predatory behavior. We can not allow China to continue to practice unfair trade practices, particularly theft of our IP.
If left unchecked China would replace us as the world power within 10 years max. While liberals may claim this is a good thing because they hate the US so much, the financial fallout would be devastating. Once the dollar loses its value as the reserve currency interest rates and inflation will both increase significantly. Our economy will go into a tailspin and forced to inflate our debt payments. Trump is doing the right thing.
2
China is already on the cusp of that and no trump tariffs will change that. He is looking backward because that is what his aging cohort wants.
2
@Jon Galt China replacing the US as the dominant world power would have been unthinkable before Trump's presidency. But now? The US approach to other countries, especially allies, has been my way or the highway and any deals are subject to change depending on what side of the bed the president tumbled out of. China would be a horrible choice but the US, as of today, is only slightly better.
3
Give Trump credit, he’s the only president to stick it to China in the past 40 years.
While most nytimes readers have never worked in manufacturing and are doing well economically. I recently lost my job due to the US manufacturer i worked with not being able to sustain with no pricing power and a glut of product from Chinese competition.
Hey Liberal, wanna work for .25 cents an hour? If not then you shouldn’t of been so blasé about shipping my job and millions of others overseas. Now we all pay the price
With right wing nationalism.
3
@Letter G
First off, many liberals, just as conservatives, found their manufacturing jobs go to other countries.
Instead of placing the blame on liberals, why not place the blame where it belongs - with companies who see the bottom line and their stockholders as more important tan you. They have to pay you a living wage whereas they can move to another country where the hourly wage is what you would pay for a cup of cheap coffee.
Trump said to all of you that he would bring back all the manufacturing jobs. Well, why not blame him for failing you and your losing your job?
19
@Letter G Not to worry, jobs are waiting, lowest unemployment in history.
2
@Letter G I would be curious to know how many of those rich people who own the manufacturing plants here in the US are registered as Republicans who have closed up and moved out of the country. even trump has used immigrant labor to save a dime. trump is a big talker, but that's all.
11
I suspect that, if Trump is capable of rational action, he has finally listened to Lighthizer, who is a managed-trade guy, as opposed to the legion of advisors, such as Mnuchin and Kudlow, who are avowed free-traders. But this won't last.
The best we're ever going to see from Trump in terms of managed trade is where we are right now--no agreement with the Chinese (or anyone else), tariffs, and retaliatory tariffs. Altho Trump is (of course) wrong when he says that trade wars are easy to win, it is nearly impossible for the net exporter to win, esp when the net importer is capable of manufacturing everything it imports.
The fact is, with or without an agr, the Chinese balance of trade and capital will continue current trends until they devote more of their GDP to households or their economy collapses under debt. China is facing an demographic disaster because couples' resources, no longer govt policy, preclude a second, or even a first, child. But neither domestic demography nor US trade is a strong enough factor for the Chinese oligarchs to make the massive readjustments to their economy because it will also transfer power from them to the people.
What will force the Chinese oligarchs to change? Crushing debt. They can't seem to deleverage for more than 6 mos, so the problem gets bigger and bigger.
So, as he twitters away, Trump, as usual, conceives of himself in the center of things when, as usual, he is beside the point.
1
When China let N. Korea test-fire a missile this past weekend, that triggered this outburst.
China needled us and got a good whack in return.
1
@MS
You say "...China let N. Korea test-fire a missile last week." That implies that the Chinese could stop it. I'm pretty sure you are right. It is the Chinese Military that created North Korea, when they stepped in to stop the US invasion, I mean "police action."
Not only that, but China supplies most of North Korea's technology, like computers, making them extremely vulnerable to Chinese spying manipulation of internal communications
I find it difficult to believe that the Chinese do not have control over the North Korean government.
If we are correct, that means the U.S. should stop negotiating with North Korea over is missile program.
North Korea should be the problem of the Chinese, and instead of publicly threatening North Korea, which only helps the Kims stay in power, we should be quietly telling the Chinese that any attack by North Korea will be responded to as if it came from China.
Negotiating with their puppet government in NK plays into the hands of the Chinese.
2
Looks to me like Trump is, unintentionally, pushing China to focus on the markets in the rest of the world. By putting high tariffs on goods sold to us, he is giving our trade competitors an open field to replace us as China's biggest market. Certainly this is not lost on China. They are busy buying soy beans from South America and building infrastructure in Africa. It may take a little while, but their people are used to suffering. Here, not so much. China will enjoy replacing us in the international sphere.
8
I believe we must take care of Americans best interest first! I assure you China is all about the money it takes from us! Of course China should take care of their people first! But don’t get upset when we start to reverse the abuse from them! Now we will for the first time in Decades! Rebuild our manufacturing factory to bring jobs and prosperity back! How could anybody here in nytimes comments disagree!
@Eero
"A Surprise Winner From the U.S.-China Trade Spat: Russian Soybean Farmers" That's a headline from the Wall Street Journal in February. (The Wall Street Journal supports Trump.) Russian oil imports to China are also up, and Russia now has a trade surplus with China.
If Russia could invent the perfect American president, he would attack the global order that we created since WWII, weaken the NATO Alliance, weaken ties to traditional allies, stoke so divisions between Americans, attack the co-equal branches of government, attack the press, attack investigations into Russian attacks on our elections (instead of doing the job of Commander in Chief and coordinate a response), let them dominate in Syria, pretend they were not in Venezuela, and hurt American exporters by starting a trade war with our biggest trade partner, so Russia could increase its exports.
Trump is doing everything Russia would want an American president to do.
If Russian tank columns were speeding across Canada, I have no confidence that Trump would do anything other than tweet, "no collusion, no collusion."
4
Eventually Donald Trump will be his own worst enemy. Remember he ran into Atlantic City with all kinds of bravado and left with his tail between his legs. The British expression: Two clever by half, fits Donald J Trump perfectly!
7
@jwgibbs
Trump left Atlantic City with the money he didn't bother to pay his workers, contractors, or creditors.
1
So, the President’s strategy is pressuring China to be fair, and thus, is working after all.
1
We have a man as President who rightly should be spending his days in a jail cell, and this criminal is carrying out a trade war based upon an idiot's understanding of trade surpluses. And because the economy seems good, people look the other way.
Just another day, ladies and gentlemen, in the Twilight Zone.
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@Walter Keyes By sticking it to ourselves?
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@Jim Anderson
"an idiot's understanding of trade surpluses"
And what is the genius' understanding of trade surpluses? I mean other than transferring wealth to the country that is running them?
Reality Check Tariffs are just another form of NAFTA.No such thing as free trade always cost assocaited with imports either with lost of jobs in usa that payed living wage.Or over inflating cost by making cheaper in china but charging same as if it was made in usa. Both china an usa must take lesson history an manufacter own products an waste assocaited . Both countrys are ruining planet an poluting oceans with its waste. Not to mention waste in energy being produced for china to manufacter products it doesnt use like computers . World wide computers consume vast amount energy could be eliminted if people would pull plug when not in use.
It's only a matter of time before the United States becomes a new global battleground - one where major powers vie off on social media platforms to "win" the hearts and minds of U.S. voters, all directed towards electing candidates favorable to foreign policy.
China, for example, would be thick not to realize that expending even a few tens of millions of dollars influencing who is elected could pay handsome dividends in all sorts of ways down the road.
Of course, right now half the country doesn't mind this. But be prepared for gradations finer than the human hair as to why Russian meddling was one thing, but Chinese meddling is "something altogether different."
4
In negotiating with China, there are two things that have to be kept in the front of the negotiator's mind.
The first is that China is playing the "long game" in most cases. They are willing to take a loss in the near future for a gain coming later.
The second is that they will not let themselves be seen as having given in to pressure. The Chinese remember the humiliation of the one-sided 19th century trade treaties imposed by western military force, and they will avoid any appearance of that.
Effectively, Trump has gone to the brink on an all-out trade war. He is betting that the Chinese want to avoid that at all costs. If he is wrong, either he has to back down or we will have an economic crisis, perhaps leading to a worldwide recession.
6
@John Graybeard I always hear that China is playing “the long game”. This game includes stealing our intellectual property, forced technology transfers, illegal subsidies to companies to dump commodities in markets. Trump is finally standing up to this and is willing to take the pain (he loves to boast about the stock market so is probably not happy to see that the Dow will open down 500 points) and to upset his voters (like farmers who have been hurt by the tariffs). As for the long game, the belt and road initiative is not rolling out as smoothly as predicted (like in Malaysia). Coupled with their human rights record it is time we stood up to them.
Rumors were the deal is already done. Could it be that DJT wants to appear to be the tough guy whose threat of more tariffs pushed it over the finish line? Do the free market capitalists really want a president who plays games with their stock market money like this?
18
@EW Reality Check missing big picture with trade .Example japan nuke accident still leaking nuke waste in oceans all way to west coast of usa. Japan accident most likely be assocaited with vast amount energy it used to make exports for usa. When in reality those nuke plants would never been built if only manufactor what it consumes an waste. So whos big losers world future generations.
When Trump is facing "tough" domestic problems, he will always create diversion to change the media focus. A seemingly successful negotiation with China sees end in sight. Now Trump threw this "unnecessary" bomb that would cause big uncertainty in stock market which affects retirement account as well as investment account of millions of people. This bluff will bring us no peace in sight and only unpredictable problems .
15
This president will use any conceivable ploy to show off his power whether necessary or not. It is all about pushing boundaries and displaying bravado scarcely by clever calculations. Underestimating the more astute and powerful Chinese leader with much more political savvy than he has, will not comply as easily to his treats. A boastful president accused with many accusations of legal obstructions of justices can not last too long nor will he ever benefit this country.
10
My husband, who is no market expert, said to me last night "Well, looks like the market will crash tomorrow."
I'm tired of winning, for sure.
15
As for of New York State's investigation of Trump, and his businesses, one has to hope that they also investigation insider trading and manipulation of the stock market. Last week it was the Fed, and this week he is amping up a trade war that no one will win. The last time he did this, the markets dropped nearly 20%. They eventually recovered, and now his comments are going to create another so called "correction".
Meanwhile, Democrats, and Pelosi, just sit on their hands, and count the days to the 2020 election.
22
@Nick Metrowsky
Absolutely agree.
SEC needs to investigate Trump and his pirate crew.
Millions will be made on today's expiring SPY option puts, just for starters, at market's open.
9
One problem is that Trump treats Twitter as a sounding board, as if he's a guy talking to a bartender. That's why he sometimes catches his advisers off guard. Based on past experiences with Trump's Tweets, we have no way of knowing if he means what he wrote about raising tariffs.
3
Trump keeps bragging that his trade wars are forcing China and metals providers in other parts of the world to "pay us millions" in tariffs. Bur what the great dealmaker doesn't seem to realize is that we're the ones doing the paying. One study by the Federal Reserve, Princeton and Columbia Universities says the tariffs have raised costs to American consumers by $1.4 billion a month. And the Brookings Institution estimates that 61% of U.S. jobs affected by retaliatory tariffs are in counties that voted for Trump. In other words, MAGA now means More Americans Gouged Again, and the saps in red country still support the Gouger-in-Chief.
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@Christy
That's delusional. The economy has never been stronger. And as a side effect, product quality is on the rise, with Chinese slave age removed from the equation.
@SCPro. Economists are always looking at the numbers but the numbers don’t tell the emotional story of the workers in the economy and never have. Just having a job is nice but having one with more than a minimum or slightly better wage and no benefits is not most people’s idea of a great job. Earning slightly above slave wages is still far from fabulous.
4
I oftentimes suspect that Trump is manipulating the markets to benefit himself and his cronies, and more particularly, Mnuchin and Ross. Let’s see some tax returns to discount this theory.
121
Why is Mnuchin in Beijing rather than in jail for breaking the law by refusing to turn Trump's tax returns over to Congress?
274
@Virginia Maybe he wants to ask for exile?
12
@Virginia
Excellent question.
5
@Virginia good question.
You must admit that he and tRump have perfected the smirk when questioned that only Cersei from GoT has perfected better than they.
2
China?! If you can hear me...Call his bluff!
The only thing he has going for him is an economy which appears, on a superficial level, to be doing well. If he crashes us into a recession, he is done.
44
He writes “Illustrating the sensitivity of the problem for China’s leaders, Chinese media was mostly silent on Mr. Trump’s threat, in a sign of tight censorship.”
How do you illustrate by silence? May be like “Deafening silence”?
3
Trump knows that he can move the market with comments like this. I wonder how many of his phone buddies had large short trades placed last week.
399
@Jack my exact thought....these tariff tweets have always had a whiff of market manipulation
65
Carl Icahn should be monitored as a Trump “friend” who profited from the steel tariff. The SEC should be checking the Mara Lago guest lists regularly. Worldwide market manipulation is possible. Were the Saudis and Russians alerted first?
67
@Jack Mnuchin is an empty nice suit and tie but it would not surprise me if he and friends if he has any profit wildly from this unhinged move.
14
If our economy, our government, were a car, alternately speeding, hard on the brakes, careening from lane to lane, we'd warn others with the bumper sticker, "baby in bord," or better, "baby at the wheel."
4
So much love of Chinese dictators and their globalist billionaire friends, and so little love for American workers, in these pages.
8
At least DJT is pushing the Chinese harder than any former POTUS, however, to see cybertheft, cyberterrorism, and cyberfraud coming out of China all substantially motivating issues for this tariff war left on the sidelines is a TOTAL loss!
1
@I finally get it I just want to make sure you're talking about the same POTUS who is defending, buddying it up, and siding with Putin, who DID cyber attack the United States and our democracy to help Trump get elected, while attacking his own law enforcement and intelligence community, terrorizing FBI agents, and demanding investigations into them while condemning the investigation into Russian meddling. That POTUS?
6
I’m not accusing anyone of anything here, just asking a question, one that seems to fit the pattern we’re seeing.
Q. Is the SEC looking at President Trump’s associates, or maybe looking at accounts he owns in trusts or holding companies for investment activity that aligns with his tweeted “policy” statements. By aligned I mean that he’s net short going into this weekend for example?
“He’s crazy” “He has no idea what he’s doing” all this doesn’t fly with me. He’s acting out of rational self interest. I’m just asking if we really know what that is for him.
100
In the meantime, farmers have to decide whether to plant. Last year’s prolonged rains in large sections of the country coupled with the trade unrest resulted in huge losses.
The futures markets are not encouraging.
https://www.agweb.com/mobile/crops/soybeans/
6
Our trade policy is conducted by dumb, dumber, and dumbest.
First there's Larry Kudlow, the-market-will-just-sort-out-the-2008-mortgage-crisis man.
Then there's Chuck Schumer:
“Hang tough on China, President @realDonaldTrump,” the Democratic Senate leader, Chuck Schumer, tweeted on Sunday. “Don’t back down. Strength is the only way to win with China.” And I stupidly donate to the Democratic party.
And finally, there's the Donald (tariff man), who doesn't have an inkling that foreign trade involves more than let's make a deal, but multiple interests, including foreign relations. Somebody should tell the Don that Americans, not the Chinese, pay the tariffs. And that maybe slowing world trade and lowering GDPs across the globe doesn't lead to prosperity at home.
With politicians and "economic advisers" like these, we don't need enemies.
80
Why would anyone believe Trump? He's blowing smoke as usual. It's just a ploy. One would think that the Chines would know that.
4
Because Liberals are so heavily invested in bashing anything related to Trump, they simply cannot dig deeply enough to appreciate the strategy going on behind the scenes in U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Trump made this statement during the campaign, "Trade wars are easy to win". It's an informed statement. The U.S. is the largest market for goods in the world--and countries want free and unfettered access. In fact, many national economies depend on that access. We are essentially sitting in the "cat-bird seat". The threat alone--of cutting off, or restricting access provides incredible leverage in negotiating better trade deals.
So, what Trump and his negotiators realize, is that we are calling the shots on Trade. Any country wanting to send goods here, must abide by our rules. That's the easy part. It just requires patience, persistence--and willingness to press our advantage. The difficulty lies in the Democrat Party and the Liberal Media.
Despite the fact that better trade deals will necessarily benefit our country, The Resistance is hard-wired to oppose anything Trump may accomplish. Democrats and their fellow travelers in the Mainstream Media are not interested in victory. They're not interested in better trade deals--or in a roaring economy, a soaring stock market, low unemployment, or wage growth. They will oppose anything that tends to improve Trump's chances for 2020. Is this economic treason? Of course--but they don't care. Just resist.
3
@Jesse The Conservative: Ask the farmers sitting on tons of rotting soybeans if they feel like they are in the catbird's seat.
Trump sabotaged our own agricultural sector for his hare-brained ideas on trade. His 'solution' to that is an $11 billion taxpayer-funded bailout that doesn't even come close to covering farmers' losses. So much winning!
@Joe Bob the III, let's face it--if Trump negotiates a great trade deal--one that restores some fairness and keeps the Chinese from stealing our intellectual property--you will just find another reason to hate him.
Trumps Trade Wars also pose a threat to the US . I do agree with Trump that China has to be recognized as an adversary, but not for the same reasons. Mine are humanitarian, while he could not care less about humanitarian issues. He instead focuses on (pseudo) economical interests, seemingly without fully seeing the bigger picture. And this is why his "strategy" is so problematic not only for the US but the West in general.
By trying to eliminate trade deficits with Tariffs (especially on raw materials) he creates incentives for US Companies to move production facilities abroad, if those Companies does not only produce for the US market but also for global markets. This weakens the US economy in general and will negate the U.S. ability to check Chinas expanding power. The fact that he also threats to impose Tariffs on Allies is not helping in this regard either.
Now, China's Regime certainly does not share the Western values of freedom and democracy. Therefore it's hegemonic ambitions need to be closely observed and if necessary restricted. However, Trump neither has the will nor the intellectual capacity for this delicate task.
5
Has Trump’s strategy done a better job of containing China sand forcing fairer trade than the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement he tore up (seemingly to appease his base)?
3
@Todd
TPP had nothing to do with China. They just used that to try to sell it. Wasn't WTO admission supposed to do the same thing 2 decades ago? This time it would have worked for sure...Or we could just face the problem head on. Not sure why Democrats are afraid of standing up to China, a country with a horrible human rights record that is taking advantage of us economically, when they claim to care greatly about both human rights and US workers.
1
@Keith TPP had everything to do with China. I don't think Democrats are afraid of standing up to China, but had taken a multi-lateral approach. I hope "chicken" works here, but I'm skeptical.
2
@Keith
Are you seriously suggesting that part of Trump's posturing with respect to the negotiations with China is that he is concerned with China's record on human rights?
1
Our "greatest negotiator ever" seems to be failing miserably at reaching a trade pact with China. Perhaps, if he stopped making senseless, harmful threats, and allowed his people at the table to work quietly to solve the last few issues, a deal could be resolved. Mr. Trump needs to stop interjecting himself into issues he neither understand or is willing to learn. He is the problem, not the solution.
39
While Trump tries to play the savvy negotiator with threats of more tariffs on Chinese goods, he never says that American consumers will be paying the real costs in regressive payments for higher priced items at their favorite stores.
American consumers and investors are paying the price for Trump’s fits of rage and bellicose rants on Twitter.
Trade wars hurt people on both sides.
78
Trade talks by “tweet” aimed at intimidating the Chinese into cooperation is a disastrous tactic-it might not move them but it definitely will move our stock market-down.The good employment numbers of Friday are eclipsed by the prospect of a trade war with China.One step forward and two steps back.
49
Another day, another meaningless tweet designed to drum up support with "his base". Will he actually impose any of the tariff's he's talking about? It's highly unlikely, but it'll get a ton of re-tweets and that's how Trump measures success.
Don't worry, by the time it becomes clear that this tweet has no basis in fact we'll be focused the next dozen outrageous claims he will have already made.
As long as we are all running from crisis to crisis we'll never have the chance to fully evaluate the damage that Trump has done to American democracy.
186
@Chris Don't tell me such a slight of hand would trick the cautious Democrats?
1
@Chris
I appreciated your comment- good point about whether this tariffs tweet is for real, or it's another PR moment designed to keep us and media distracted and running in circles. And to make him look like a man of action, large and in charge. But it's very clear that Trump's impulsiveness and authoritarian instincts are growing and are unlimited. I'm beginning to think it's time to invoke NATO's article 5 clause, about an attack on one member being an attack on all. He is a walking, talking red alert. Plus, it would be fitting (and ironic) for NATO, an institution he also disrespects, to reign him in!
16
Whenever the government gets close to signing Trump does this so it looks like his “tough” stance caused the other side to cave. It must have been how his people allowed this baby to think he was doing something important at his company. I’m not sure this works with China.
30
A well researched article that explains the devil in negotiating with the Chinese is in the details. When I did business in China, I found out that negotiations were never finished. Over months, I negotiated a deal with my Chinese counterparts and brought the deal back to senior management in the US for approval. After much discussion, senior management agreed and I returned to Beijing to sign the agreement. When I arrived, the Chinese organized a banquet to celebrate the forthcoming agreement and told me that they made some minor changes. The next day the Chinese presented me with major changes to the agreement. I told them my company had already made a number of concessions (i.e., including transfer of technology) and I could not reopen negotiations. In the end we never made a deal.
5
@Rod: I don't doubt your experience, but the point of the article seems to be that the devil in these negotiations is Donald Trump.
6
"In fact, Chinese internal politics may be at the root of the sudden hitch in the trade talks."
I'm not sure that the president has grasped the idea that foreign nations, particularly opaque dictatorships like China and North Korea, don't respond well to bullying tactics in negotiations.
Donald Trump is impatient--his international adversaries, "friends" or no friends, so far haven't bent to his will.
Trump's tweets are being heard around the world, and not in a good way. I think, as often he does, he's shooting himself in the foot on the world stage by upending the work of his negotiators.
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@ChristineMcM
Think about the alternative.
What would HRC have done? Let me tell you.
Nothing. Global elitists were happy with the status-quo.
2
@MS
Aha, another Trump-ism: blame it on Hilary
29
@MS. Oh, and you think that Trump isn’t a global “elitist” because he says so? We’v got a couple of bridges in ny to sell you if you are that gullible.
26
Interesting, but not a balanced article.
Escalating the tariff war will certainly do harm to China, and its leadership needs stability above all.
However, China's leaders are playing the long game and its centralized authoritarian system can better absorb financial blows. Meanwhile, Trump and his minions are focused on form versus substance (see NAFTA and the lovefest with North Korea). The Chinese also realize that the only thing Trump really cares about is getting re-elected in 2020 so as to avoid jail time before the statute of limitations runs out on the many pending cases against him.
So which horse to bet on?
117
@Pat
You nailed it.
China's 5,000 year history makes its leaders and its people able to wait out Trump's tenure of a few short years. They know he will be gone in 2020 or four years later. Even every two years our Congress changes. So why would China take seriously these threats and pronouncements tweeted by Trump?
Trump really thinks he can push around a country of over a billion people who are proud of their economic success? The Chinese people put up with the oppressive regime of Mao from 1949 to 1978 when Deng opened China's economy to market reform.
China's leaders know that letting Trump push them around is far more dangerous to the long term stability of the CCP than Trump's threats. China has been around too long to buckle under to this con man.
3
@Mimi There's no historical or archeological basis for China being 5,000 years old unless we loosen the definition of China to being homo sapiens were extant in that area in some form.
Trump is looking for fair trade which has something we did not have before Trump became President. For decades China has been openly stealing our technology and then using the stolen technology to produce products for the World market cheaper than we could produce them here in the US. There are many other instances where the Chinese government subsidizes Chinese produced goods to beat us in World markets and is essential using every illegal or dirty trick to beat us any way they could. Trump has declared that the US will no longer stand by silently and let this unfair practice continue. He just wants a level playing field. If the US doesn't stand up to China they will continue to do what they have been doing.
3
Trump has his own risks to consider, not that he will. Have you taken a look at soybean futures lately? They are in a dive as steep as any Boeing Max 8.
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@sine nomine That what is so odd, and the Farmers seem to love Trump. there is nothing Trump could do to these people even if they lose their farms to sway them away from Trump. I am seriously beginning to question if people in America are as smart as we think we are .
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@sine nomine I'm cynical about any risk to Trump. If he starts losing potential votes from farmers I fully expect him to offer some kind of government subsidy that us average consumers will pay in the long run.
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@sine nomine Oh, that's all take care of by the Farmer Bailout Special that pays off farmers hurt by the tariffs. Apparently Repubs are ok with that too.
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Please, if you must quote Mr. Trump's tweets, immediately bracket them with corrective disclaimers. Tariffs ARE NOT paid to the US Treasury. They are paid by the consumer in the form of a higher purchase price, whether buying parts for assembly in the US or the finished goods. The costs are not directly borne by China, except the demand for Chinese products drops due to the increased price. I'm sure people read the tweets and assume it's a statement of fact.
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@Baltimore 16 Reading Trump's tweets does not meet the criteria for fact, never - somewhere between prevarication and distorted reality.
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@Baltimore 16
Where does the Tariff money go to?
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@Baltimore 16
Dear Baltimore 16:- Sorry, but you are not correct. Tariffs are paid by the importer of record to the U.S. Treasury at the port of entry. They are usually calculated as a percentage of the value although also sometimes by weight or volume. The importer might pass the increased cost of a higher tariff to his customers or he might tighten his belt and work on a smaller profit. Or the Chinese exporter might offer a discount on his selling price in order to maintain market share. These are normal business decisions and they help determine whether the consumer of the goods being imported pays more for them or pays the same.
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