On the one hand I want to see the U.K. remain as I am basically an Anglophile. On the other hand I was rather happy to see them leaving to see the right wingers eat crow after the country swooned as a resul of leaving.
There's a reason most democracies have shunned direct democracy. Government by referendum is a bad idea. The people simply aren't informed enough to make these kinds of momentous decisions at the polls. Representative democracy creates a class of people with the time and the responsibility to educate themselves on the issues, to speak with experts, to debate, and eventually come to a well-considered decision. Referendums are democracy dumbed down to its lowest common denominator.
Another referendum is now necessary to reverse the first ill-considered abomination. But once the referendum to keep Britain in Europe passes, please let's go back to parliamentary democracy. It's a far better system than Joe Blow at the bar bloviating about how he hates being pushed around by Europe. All while drinking too many beers brewed in Belgium.
89
@617to416
I heartily agree with your sentiments re direct democracy. It's an invitation to mob rule. Both the US and Canada are democratic republics, and with good reason. One of the finest acts by Founding Hypocrite Thomas Jefferson was to insist upon a Bill of Rights, precisely because it was an enumeration of individual rights that the government was forbidden to encroach upon.
Unfortunately in this case, the proper path to undo the Referendum is another Referendum, but this time put the issue, with all the ramifications that it entails honestly before the public.
9
It's a testament to Jeremy Grantham's insight how spot-on he's been about Brexit's chances of happening. He drew widespread ridicule right after the vote for saying he still saw a 1 in 3 chance of it not happening. In an interview a couple months ago, he was complimented for seeing the potential of it failing, and then asked what he saw the odds being now. He said it was still 1 in 3, but that the one thing he absolutely did not predict was that it would still be 1 in 3 almost three years later -- he expected it to be either near 100% or 0% by now. He went on to say though, that he thought the deadline would be extended, and that if that happened, he saw the odds of Brexit being rescinded as changing to 50-50 going forward. So, here we are, and here we have people saying what Grantham predicted months ago. Jeremy is still a very smart man, even in his ninth decade.
17
I would like nothing better for people in Western democracies to come to their senses but I despair. Even the Netherlands, whose government did everything right (fast growing economy, budget surplus, full employment, great public services, little inequality ...) got punished with the demagogue Thierry Baudet, whose ramblings are often incoherent, receiving most votes out of nowhere.
I wonder if we vastly underestimated the educational value of objective media, TV news and newspapers. Their decline, in favor of one sided, bias confirming feeds delivered by big tech social media is closing people's minds, leaving everyone unhappy and wanting change. Again, the Netherlands are a great place to live today, and yet people still voted massively for change.
Even if Brexit were miraculously averted, the electorate will not suddenly vote rationally.
Unless we start to regulate Internet companies like TV and newspapers, we will find ourselves in the West in perpetual chaos.
41
“The British cannot actually go through with something that will lower their incomes, make them poorer, lose them jobs, drain investment, expose their market to trade deals over which they would have no say, and — just an afterthought — lead to the breakup of Britain.”
Verbatim what loyalists said in 1776 about the downside of declaring independence from Great Britain.
5
Beyond the attorneys there are those others who would benefit regardless the outcome of this toss up or a referendum would never have taken place. Who they are and how they profit would be infornative.
When our President wraps himself around the flag it isn't the banner he is selling.
3
Nick Ferrari - influential? Only if you have an IQ of under 80 and hate all foreigners.
Which does, granted, cover an awful lot of the the Brexiteers...
6
Once more Britons realize that Brexit is a poison pill to their economy and the personal ramifications of it, it will be time to reverse the ill-conceived referendum by another one. Britons (and Americans) are sensitive to pocketbook issues, despite the inroads of lies purveyed online, on the air, and in print.
The best argument here against Trump and the GOP is the new tax code. For all but the very wealthy people (and corporations) filing one's return today will reveal that we're paying MORE, not less. No rational person wishes to be known as a fool, or someone who could be "had" for the price of a cup of tea at a Lyon's Corner House or a cup of coffee at McDonald's.
All the far right (who have turned language into its oxymoron) and the far left want to do is profit through fear, lies, and hate of the other. I've realized for nearly 50 years that they're just the two sides of a very counterfeit coin that appears gilded but is made of solid excrement. Just as there are few fools who will seal their minds, eyes, and ears to the facts, there are relatively few people who will mistake excrement for chocolate and swallow it.
Once facts disperse the smoke of lies, it will be time to follow the money to Brexit and discover Putin & Co. have pulled the strings, with Farage and Johnson as their puppets/Quislings, and all of Britain, the EU, and NATO as their victims on that side of the Pond, and Trump and the GOP their willing collaborators here.
7
We Americans could full fledged contempt for the stupidity of the Brits, but oh wiat, then we'd have to explain how Donald Trump is president of the United States.
8
Well, my dream is that Brexit will die so that sanity will live. I also dream that if and when Brexit dies, Trump will already be a lame duck caretaker of a U.S. presidency that is all but dead and the polls are in overwhelming support of that fact.
11
It's time for Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn to mount horses carrying the EU Flag and proclaim "Tally Ho!"
3
Brexit is what happens when otherwise civilized countries give in to demagoguery.
13
Please God!
2
If we could only send Rupert Murdoch into the black hole along with Brexit!
He as much as the Russians helped to throw - yes, throw, as in cheat, lie and steel - both the 2016 US election and the Brexit vote.
Murdoch is anathema, a pariah and a parasite.
20
As sad as it is, Roger Cohen 's piece sounds like wishful thinking. I entirely agree with KJ Peters from San Jose: Brexit was voted and Theresa May promised to deliver it. Polls show about 48% people are Brexiters. Not a majority now but they were then. To renege on this vote would tear apart the United Kingdom. We should remember in 2005, when the Maastricht resolution was passed in Europe, France said voted no. A few months later, the government ignored it and managed to move beyond. It still is a hard point of contention in this country. People said they'd never trust any government again, the end result being the yellow vests crisis.
3
The EU is a major force in the whole alliance system governing trade and politics that works to benefit America, Europe, 'free' Asia (Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, India; Israel, Turkey, etc.), Australia, much of Africa, and 'free' Latin America, etc. The EU will be diminished if it does not include Britain.
Unless Britain remains, we all will be somewhat diminished.
3
If the Brits don't vote again on this one, I pity the population that will suffer as a result. And shame on those educated Brexiteers that put all this in motion. They should have to courage to admit their gross miscalculation in terms or Britons welfare, if indeed, it was a miscalculation and not just political grandstanding. What a travesty!
26
This piece should go a long way to correct Roger Cohen's inaccuracies and misjudgements. https://brexitcentral.com/the-mini-deals-allowing-us-to-leave-without-a-withdrawal-agreement-are-done-lets-embrace-a-wto-brexit/
The Brexit movement is a note written by a would-be suicide whose head is in a gas oven. For too long, the discussion among the political class has been about whether the gas should be left full on or turned down to medium or low. Now, at last, the Remainers have the resolve and, soon I hope, the power to turn the off thegas off all the way.
12:10 EDT, 4/12
3
Roger, too bad your black hole metaphor wasn’t a part of the original referendum: Are you in favor of leaving the EU, a.k.a. voluntarily leaping into a black hole? That might have changed the outcome.
Using a different metaphor, seems to me when you have a hung jury, you declare a mistrial. That leaves it to the prosecutors to decide if they want to go to trial again. So, declare a Brexit mistrial, and leave it up to the Brexiteers to call for another vote. How likely is it that would happen?
3
The main purpose of the EU is to keep these nations embedded in each other's fate, and united by democratic principles.
For the alternative to the EU we need to recall the prior century where in the span of 35 year the entire world was nearly destroyed TWICE by European aristocracies and authoritarian states, working out their epic narcissistic and nationalistic psychosis on each other and then sucking in the entire world. 70M deaths in the second go-round. The European states need each other's on-going supervision.
This is what is at stake with Brixit, It is not about tariffs on fish-and-chips. It is about the same-old same-old starting up again.
9
Odd, yet understandable, that voters in both Britain and the U.S. were sold a bill of goods based on lies and secret money, and, arguably, majorities want a do-over.
The U.S. will have its chance in 19 long months. I hope the Brits get their chance, too. If so, it's my guess they'll vote to 'stay.'
5
Last month I was struck by the tone of Brexiteer’s comments. They sounded like a person considering suicde: scared and despondent about the result but wanting the daily struggle to end.
3
I believe the Queen could save the UK in an instant if she spoke to the nation and expressed her desire that Britain stay in the E.U.
2
I'm pleasantly surprised that pundits in Britain are willing to publicly change their minds. We could use some of that here in America.
6
In all of the articles about Brexit, I find it interesting that authors don't take a few minutes and explain a few facts about the UK. The UK is made up of five distinct parts/countries. They are England, Wales, Ireland, North Ireland, and Scotland. Ireland is a separate country and is in and will remain in the EU. In the 2016 Brexit vote, Scotland voted 62% for staying and 38% to leave. Also in the 2016 Brexit vote, North Ireland voted 56% for staying and 44% to leave.
I might be wrong, but it's my understanding that Scotland has the legal power to join the EU. And, in fact, prior to the 2016 vote, Scotland had heavily discussed that alternative. I'm not sure if North Ireland has those legal rights, but considering the pending post-Brexit border problems with Ireland, they certainly have reasons to join the EU.
To me, the solution while complicated and unlikely is for Wales and England to leave the EU as they were the "countries" that voted for Brexit... and Scotland and North Ireland to remain in the EU, again as per their wishes in the 2016 vote.
@Mark" Ireland -- the Republic of Ireland -- is, as you say, a separate country. It is not part of the UK. England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are the 4 parts of the UK, along with some smaller islands.
1
@steveh64 You are right... I should have written, "The UK is made up of four distinct parts/countries." Thanks for making that point.
Here we are. Brexit is not doable because it makes no sense, whatever the prime minister’s scattershot efforts or offers to resign. You can hoodwink people — but not if you give them three years to reflect on how they were hoodwinked before doing the deed the hoodwinking was about.
Let's hope this also applies to when people are given four years to reflect...
5
Thank you Roger Cohan for your sober assessment.
I still cannot grasp the result of the Referendum, which was stupid from the beginning. Why didnt the Constituents see through the Brexiteers, mainly Johnson and Farage and their blatant Lies? Look at them now, these Arsonists, letting poor Theresa struggle alone with the EU for an honorable Exit. Where are these"great Patriots?"
One only can hope that common sense will prevail within the grace period, finally ending this Brexit Drama and leading to a new Referendum.
Good for the UK and good for a likely RENEWED and strong European Union -a certain Win - Win Situation. Dont be a stubborn United Kingdom and be sorry forever.
m.
7
Big Brussels is the black hole and Britain never had a chance of escaping its gravitational pull.
2
The Brexit chaos is the demonstration of jingoism run amok.
4
It is difficult to determine, what is dumber and more ignorant, Brexit or the election of Trump? Both came about from similar fears, hatreds and above all, ignorance and the damage caused by both will last for decades to come.
12
After reading about Brexit day after day in The Guardian, I have come to the conclusion that the Tories in Parliament do not want to approve Brexit in any way. I have begun to wonder if Parliament does anything at all. They are now on vacation. I've realized that the problem lies in the Neo-liberal world. Worldwide Neo-liberalism has generally taken root in political and economic thinking. Those "philosophers" envisioned a planet of one giant market in which goods and capital could travel freely. The EU is a first step in that direction. In Globalists by Q. Slobodian I believe there is a diagram showing the world encompassed by a giant octopus whose tentacles spanned the planet. The problem with Brexit is that it would mean severing a some of those tentacles radically and would leave Britain as an outsider excluded from major world markets and cause untold suffering by the British people when their economy collapses. I watched a series of interviews of Brexiteers who mostly said that they wanted Britain to return to "the way things used to be." That is the one thing that will never happen. I saw towns filled with empty storefronts and sad people. I heard complaints about the gutting of the National Health Service resulting from Thatcherite austerity. The people are sick of it and, really, any choice is no choice.
3
This is in no way complex: the people were asked, and the people answered. Brussels should have done what London has refused to do and honour the people’s answer by refusing to extend the deadline.
3
"You can hoodwink people — but not if you give them three years to reflect on how they were hoodwinked before doing the deed the hoodwinking was about."
That sums up why I don't think t rump is going to be reelected on this side of the pond. He still has a bare minority of devoted fans but the voters who actually put him over the top are seeing what he really is. And what he really is is revolting.
"It is much easier to hoodwink a fellow than to get that fellow to admit to being hoodwinked." Mark Twain..... And that sums up the rest of his voters.
6
Culturally and politically France is much closer to Great Britain than Germany. We are like enemy brothers. They belong in Europe absolutely. They are more eccentric which I like, the French more straight jacket but give me a single funny self deprecating German movie like the Ruling Class or the French movie Calmos? This British class of politicians is real dim. They used to be better than the French, especially during the 3eme Republique.
Could use a long break from this subject.
I can't accept the referendum which began all of this. In the face of overflowing propaganda, the plague on all of us, who in their right mind would stick to the story that "This is how a democracy works". Positively dumb. Wrong headed. The populous are the last place who should be involved not the first. Much too complicated for democratic processes.
The last three years , form my view, only reinforces my point. What a mess.
2
The simple and honorable course is for PM May to announce that she has failed to deliver a Brexit that is in the UK's best interests and is supported by a majority of Parliament, to rescind Article 50, and to step down and call an election to be fought over the issue, as well as the future of the country. Enough is enough, it is time to move on.
4
This is nothing to do with reality. It is all fantasy. We have an elitist loony right-wing, wealthy extremely small but very powerful group. They have a fantasy which could eventually unmake the British Isles. They want us to return to trade with the common wealth (empire), while setting up trade barriers with the rest of the world.
We have lots of fake news, but lets just be old fashioned, I'd say there have been a lot of downright lies. I've heard lots of people saying can't we have a “strong man” to solve this, someone like Churchill. But Mr Churchill was an advocate of free trade. In 1904 in the House of Commons, he turned to the right rather than to the left and took a seat on the opposition Liberal side on the second bench below the gangway, next to the young Liberal firebrand, David Lloyd George. This was a protest against the then Tory governments protectionist policies. It was an act that infuriated his Tory colleagues.
There is a left leaning party who are defending the NHS. I'm not going to mention the leaders name because this party has half a million members, the biggest party in Europe, but all we hear in the news is is the leaders name, as if one man alone was the party. This party wants the reintroduction of old fashioned Keynesian economics.
If the UK wants prosperity lets stay with the EU. The worry now is that so many car makers and financial firms have left. Even if we can stop the madness it may take decades to rebuild are economy.
9
One of the surprising things about Brexit is how few Brits have apparently twigged to their being basically the victims of a Russian intelligence operation, just like Trump's election and involving many of the same players. The evidence is staring them in the face, for example, in Arron Banks's shady finances and his Russian wife. But the Brits are so caught up in their nostalgic fantasies of empire and the Battle of Britain that they don't want to see it.
4
I have never understood why Britain has not held a second election. They can have one. Seems like something this important is not something to be decided by a single close election, especially with all of the lying and propagandizing done by nefarious outside groups.
Of course, they could be trying to satisfy their "Trumpist" base that voted to leave. Same problem as here in the States: those tribalist people are disenchanted by their personal misfortunes, think they are better than others due to the color of their skin, and are totally susceptible to brainwashing. I am not putting them down, because "There are many good people" among them. Someone needs to listen to them, talk to them, and help them learn about voting against their own interests; someone without the undisclosed motive of destroying western Europe and the U.S.
I wish this country could have a re-do.
5
@Chris
I think the explanation for much of the irrational behavior is that both major parties are badly divided on the EU. Having an open debate and letting the majority decide would be in both cases a recipe for a disastrous split, with the result of that party being out of office for a generation. Hence the frequent allusions to the 1843 Tory split over the Corn Laws. The result is that both parties are behaving deviously and maneuvering from day to day, hoping that, no matter how bad the outcome, the party will remain united, the leader will keep his/her job, and the other party will get the blame.
2
One wonders why so much time, money and scientific talent was invested in capturing the first photo of a black hole, millions of light years away, when all they had to do was to go to London.
6
Well put. Brexit makes no sense. Especially if the ‘idea’ (if you can even dignify it as that) of a global Britain turning its back on its neighbors and coming down on immigration is a complete contradiction in terms. This could only have made sense if Britain ruled the waves and had products that others do not make. Sadly, the 21st century is not the 19th and the UK is just another country getting by. As an exercise in democracy it has accentuated the worst aspects of a partisan press and give a soap box to economically illiterate shamen. The good news is that there are enough parliamentarians unwilling to jump off a cliff and thus representing the national interest.
2
Hopefully Roger Cohen is right & Brexit gets abandoned, consumed by its own contradictions. Still, the main problem that Brexit revealed is not yet solved. Britain's remaining in the EU shouldn't just be 'the least bad of choices'. The EU, and liberal democracy itself needs to raise it's game. The EU, like Democracy, cannot only be considered 'The least worst System'. It needs a people to be for actively it. It needs enthusiasm. It needs a better narrative. It cannot survive long on defense alone. The reason Brexit won is because the remain side was only anti-Brexit & was never brave enough to be pro-EU.
2
Switzerland has been running things by referendum for a long time. This week, after more than 150 years and 300 referendums (referenda for the purists) their supreme court invalidated one for the first time, on the grounds that the public was misinformed. The moral of this story should be obvious.
7
So Britain wants to submit to perpetual serfdom to the elites in Brussels.... so be it... the country is inconsequential anyhow.
1
It's too bad we don't have a realistic method of undoing a disastrous decision by the electorate in less than 4 long years.
5
Irony abounds in this Brexit mess. But some form of Karma is just down the road for Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees Mogg and the rest of the ultra-Brexiteers. What will these ultra-unionist's say when Scotland and Ireland use their own words and arguments for the dissolution of the UK. Substitute Westminster for Brussels and the SNP will eventually hammer the Brexiters with their own version of regaining their sovereignty . I envision a SNP sweep in the next general election and a minority labour government that will have go to the SNP to form a government. And what price will they have to pay? A second indy ref and with the UK out of the EU it will win with a thumping majority. And when the people of Northern Ireland see the economic wreckage of Brexit that comes to them the once unthinkable idea of a United Ireland out of the UK might just happen. How will Bojo answer the question of his role in making the UK simply England once again.
4
"That is what Britain is doing, confronted by its most important decision in decades."
It's disheartening to think that this "most important decision" was influenced by faux-outrage over a mythical attack on "prawn cocktail crisps."
3
Ironic how the loudly-denounced, bureaucratic, 'non-democratic' modus operandi of the EU has saved the UK's rear this time around. The EU has lost a unique opportunity to strengthen the Union. With the hard Brexit deadline looming, it should have said bye-bye and offered the UK the possibility of an accelerated process for rejoining, but under the Euro and without any of the additional perks that the UK has enjoyed since it joined. Of course, the UK could well have chosen not to rejoin under those conditions. Which is why such a move would require nerve, leadership and vision, a set of commodities sadly lacking in today's bureaucratic EU.
3
One of the (many) reasons why Great Britain has always been a great nation, and still is, is that it has a large share of people like Mr. Osborne, who are capable of reflecting on their opinions, understand their mistakes, sincerely own-up to them and change their minds. Not the case in some former colonies, I'm sad to say.
4
Once again, the Brexit fiasco demonstrates how little appreciation people have for the very concept of representative democracy. The reason you elect representatives is so that they can take ongoing responsibility for making decisions in the light of current information. Plebiscites don't do that. They just give snapshot impressions of what the voting public made of a given question frozen at one point in time.
As it happens, the original Brexit question was something like, "would you rather have fairy dust than your dull daily routine?" If it had asked, "do you vote to see the UK dissolved, violence return to Northern Ireland, and participation in Europe as a second-class country?", the answer would have been no.
You don't demonstrate respect for British institutions by making a totem of one foolish vote years in the past. You do it by demanding that Parliament come back from vacation and take responsibility for what happens going forward - preferably after a general election to throw out some Tory dead weight.
If Parliament can't decide how to leave, then you don't leave.
11
Actually, the question was very straightforward, are you in favor of leaving the European Union?
@Mark
Straightforward only if you think that committing to buy something and then deciding you don't want to pay for it is straightforward. There is not now, and will probably never be, a majority in Parliament that is prepared to pay what this is going to cost.
2
I am in favor of winning the lottery.
1
The EU is an awful institution, intruding on the sovereignty of its member states across a whole range of policy and subjugating their courts as inferior. Leaving is painful, but staying means the end of the UK as a sovereign state.
5
Substitute EU for USA and fill in any state in place of UK and your statement is just as true.
1
I'm sure Trump can "fix" it.
3
Brexit and the election of Donald Trump: Two prime examples of why democracy, without commensurate responsibility, is not appropriate for today's wilfully ignorant citizenry.
11
Your column makes a lot of sense. Brexit may well become a fantasy within a dream and reality is the wake-up call.
4
Remain.
Remain.
Remain.
I told you three times
2
Hard to know which was the most devastating product of Rupert Murdoch's control of the British tabloids and Fox "News": Brexit or Trump.
In any event, this right-wing Aussie has caused more damage to Anglo-American democracy than any single person in history.
17
With the possible exception of Osama bin Laden.
1
"The cost of this madness is sinking in. As Martin Fletcher asked in The New Statesman: Does anyone seriously believe Britain would have opted to leave if they’d known the result would be a “country supplicant, mocked, humiliated and beset by strife?”
What part of that wasn't known at the time of the Brexit vote? Every plausible deal for a Brexit was a downward move by Britain. It was such a no-brainer, that the only real result of the Brexit vote was to measure how many people had no brain.
8
Roger Cohen gets the melody of Brexit correct in his opening paragraphs; it's trying to read the sheet music that ties people in knots.
The beating heart of democratic governance is its ability to reconsider and then make new decisions based on new experience.
The politics of Brexit has been anti-democratic all along starting with its choice of a referendum, always a forum subject to bullying and demagoguery.
The coming European parliamentary election is probably the death knell of Brexit. Then the Conservative party has to decide whether it will follow this failure into the abyss.
67
Brexit has always been a howl of rage against "the elites." Yet the irony is that those very same elites in Brussels are the ones keeping their cool, biding their time, letting the perpetually aggrieved who voted Leave stamp their feet, and generally saving Britain from itself.
3
"they’ve said no to no deal, but some of them said yes to no deal but no to Theresa’s deal, but not as many that said no to no deal and no to Theresa’s deal, but they don’t actually have a deal of their own, which is a big deal because without a deal then no deal is more likely to be the deal that’s dealt, and the people who want the deal can’t be dealing with that.”
Now I am able to understand clearly why the Brexit issue has become so intractable!!
12
Think of Brexit as the car, and Brexiteers as the dog. Then Brexiteers' dilemma is reduced to more familiar terms.
7
The best quote I’ve heard recently regarding Brexit:
'the undefined being negotiated by the unprepared in order to get the unspecified for the uninformed'
25
Boris was a Remainer before he was a Leaver.
4
Every time I start to comment on Brexit, I am silenced by the thought that I'm living in a glass house (the U.S.).
11
This is a muddle headed article, devoid of facts, which relies on the views of a couple of obscure commentators.
It would be great if the author writes a follow up piece after the 5/23 to see what happens in the EU elections
Here are some facts:
1) The UK economy is growing faster than expected (0.3% last quarter vs.0.2% forecast and will easily surpass German growth in 2019 (1.2% vs. 0.6%)
2) Multiple national opinion polls show opinion hardening against delay (YouGov)
3) There is no betting on Brexit in general, without reference to the specifics and timeframe (please see Odds Checker)
4) UK turnout in European elections is ~35% - turnout in the 2016 referendum was 72% - much more meaningful
5) The Labor party is as divided as the Tories - Since 1975 in the last referendum, it was the hard left who voted leave - Michael Foot, Tony Benn, Barbara Castle - today with Corbyn it is the same
1
Wow, 0.3% growth? They must be so proud. That is a hair away from recession.
1
@Martin
I'm not sure what your ultimate point is, but here are a couple of things to think about:
It seems a lot of the economic activity is stockpiling in the event of no deal. Otherwise the economy is grinding to a halt.
Elections for the MEPs have up to now been kind of a yawn. I bet a lot more attention will be paid to this one.
1
Exit BreXit.
The oblivion of a black hole is the best place possible for an action based on British pride and arrogance. And perhaps the US will dump Trump soon in the same spirit.
6
Mr. Cohen writes:
"Peter Oborne, the former chief political commentator at The Daily Telegraph, has also changed his mind. In a much-noted piece, he recently wrote, “It has become clear to me, though I’ve been a strong Tory Brexiteer, that Britain’s departure from the E.U. will be as great a disaster for our country as the over-mighty unions were in the 1960s and 1970s.”
People like formerly Pro-Brexit Osborne, purportedly opinion leaders in Britain should have known all that in the first place.
He and they are at best fools and, worse, knaves. They helped lead their nation into this stupidity and have no clue how to get it out of it.
Well the way out is another vote.I t's the only way out; but who will trust Osborne this time if he says so?
2
Britain is an important heavy weight in the EU and can have substantial impact on policies it feels are an unnecessary burden.
The way to change things inside the EU is by convincing other members that the change will help make the EU a better entity.
To abandon all leverage with Brexit is foolish, there is nothing to gain and a lot to lose. Statesmen (if there are any left) have their work cut out for them,
in the next 6 months they should spent most of their time convincing England that Brexit would be a disaster and drop the whole thing.
5
I know this is an American publication and so must adhere to American style rules, but surely that doesn't extend to renaming the Labour Party the Labor party?
8
The times they are a changing, so grab your bootstraps and hang on the 21st century is going to be a bumpy ride
3
Wow, who knew that elections have consequences and stupidity abounds?
The bigger question is will human's learn to demand honesty, research and compromise from their elected officials? Probably not, bring in the clowns.
2
"It will be hard to see a pro-Europe vote in the European Parliament as anything other than a gauge of changed British sentiment and grounds for a second referendum."
Actually, the European Parliament elections could be presented to the remainers as a de facto referendum on Brexit. If masses of pro-Europe voters come out to support remainers, and send the likes of Nigel Farage packing, the "will of the people" would be made clear.
3
Such hoped for optimism that Great Britain will wake up from their inflamed prejudices and fears, and the realization that this isn't the 20th century. Great Britain and the European Union together have strengthened unity in a long turbulent part of the world. Yes, there are many issues for the EU, but globalization requires cooperation and partnership. Pragmatic problem solving recognizing the complexity of the issues, not knee jerk reactions to a world immigration crisis is what is needed that will only increase in the next 20-50 years.
3
The construction of a full international border across Ireland alone should be a deal breaker, because it will dramatically hurt the economies on both sides and could even re-ignite the Troubles. Why is no one calling it that?
5
As Peter Osborne of The Daily Telegraph put it, “It has become clear to me, though I’ve been a strong Tory Brexiteer, that Britain’s departure from the E.U. will be as great a disaster for our country as the over-mighty unions were in the 1960s and 1970s.”
In the three years since the Brexit vote, it became much clearer, not only to the good Mr. Osborne, but to the British public in general what the UK stood to lose under ANY Brexit plan. Farage, Johnson, and other charlatans simply lied through their teeth, promising in effect a Second British Empire. Like reactionaries on this side of the Atlantic, they promised a return to a time that only exists in their imagination.
The UK is still a powerful nation-state, and the fifth largest economy on Earth. Allied with the EU, they become even stronger, and an economic counterweight to both the US and China. Standing alone, they will be simply, "little england".
However it comes about, the British public must be given another vote. A second referendum can solve this problem. We in the US are not so lucky. We have to wait four years to get rid of our "problem".
8
@TRA
It's debatable which of the US or the UK is the luckier. At least in the US, a presidential election, even after two terms of trump, can begin undoing the harm. Brexit is still a real possibility; if it becomes reality in any form, reversing its harm will take generations.
12:05 EDT, 4/12
1
@mancuroc
Good point, although the only thing more depressing than four years of The Donald, is eight!
Say it ain't so, Joe!
1
when i was a preteen still learning about the world, i loved to put a drop of pond water on a glass slide and watch the teeming life within. rotifers eating paramecia, amoebae munching algae, it was a wonderful spectacle of the basic rules of existence.
nothing since has given me the same sensation of life under the lens ... until now -- until Brexit.
oh, Brexit! now at last i can see human as a mere microbe, constrained in a cultural drop of self absorption and perceptual limitation, all its vaunted angel like comprehension and free will nothing more than insufficient flagella against the flooding, heated forward momentum of political, social, demographic, economic and climate change.
1
The damage has already begun as major business interests are relocating since the UK is not an avenue to trade with the EU. The days of the British Empire are long gone and the splendid isolation they proudly adhered to. The UK under the Brexiteers could end up permanently leading the country to extremely diminished status. As Cohen states the UKs identity and economic status is tied to its membership in the EU.
4
If you have a referendum, have a referendum commission and process with teeth, whereby people on both sides of a debate that lie blatantly get fined and even arrested.
Have clear rules on funding sources and all advertising.
Have the arguments for and against developed by an independent balanced commission and circulated to every household (like we do in Ireland).
If the structural / process deficits so evident in 2016 are not addressed, the proposed second vote will be just as bad...
103
@Kieran I live in California. We have referenda quite often. Blatant lies about what these "propositions" say and will do are the least of our problems when the propositions are up for a vote.
Perhaps what we need is a referendum implementing the procedures you recommend.
12
@Kieran
Or....since you are worried about a second referendum then perhaps it can proceed as follows: use the fact that the first one was non binding, and make the next one a binding referendum on the very same question as the first but with a 60% threshold for the UK to leave the EU. A serious decision warrants a serious majority.
9
@Kieran Can you export that model to the US?
3
I cannot help but compare the voters for Brexit in the UK and those that support Trump in the US. The very rich protecting their privileges and vested interests, and the alienated poor in depressed areas who are desperate. The most vulnerable who easily believe in authoritarian charlatans who tell them that outsiders are to blame for their problems and not themselves.
America makes up 4% of the world's population and consumes over 20% of its wealth. As per the UK, its problems are internal and hinge on deep ideological and institutional dysfunctionalism that prevents effective moderation and adaptation to a rapidly changing world.
Along with the Brits, you might like to think that you can just have your cake and eat it too, but in reality, one has to take responsiblity not only for one's own country but as well for your place in the world. Halloween looms here as well!
10
I'm waiting for the American public to wake up and admit that two years ago there attempt to send a message to the Beltway has horribly backfired.
7
From what I have read in The Times, Brits can thank Rupert Murdoch and his TV, Radio and newspaper empire for all their Brexit problems.
Murdoch was in the forefront, favoring Brexit, and his editorials in favor of that action convinced many people that his erroneous position was the correct path to follow.
12
It seems conservatives these days only know how to say "No", don't ask them for solutions as they don't have any.
10
I'll share what a young British teen remarked the day after the original Brexit vote: "they don't care about us kids!" This was at an international camp for teens with many from the UK. It was a dark day at camp for those from the UK, kids and counselors too. They more than the idiots who voted from Brexit knew how diminished their lives would be without the benefits of EU membership. They could care less about "rule Britannia, Britannia rules the world" nostalgia. Often young people can spot the con from a mile away and are not besotted by nostalgia.
11
Enough already. Enough of the utter ineptitude, intra-party infighting and overall childish behavior of Parliament concerning this monumentally important issue. These folks are unable to get the job done.
Let the citizens decide in a second referendum whether they prefer to stay in the EU or crash out in a hard Brexit. It would be a travesty of democracy if the people of the UK don't have the final say in what becomes of their country.
4
The Sun run by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. is still Brexit's biggest, loudest supporter and will stoop at nothing to sow dissent and destroy democracy in Great Britain, here in the United States, and Australia.
I hope Roger Cohen is correct.
6
What is going on in the Brits brains ?
Take a town like Sunderland, there you have a Nissan automobile factory which has been there since the mid 1980, they placed it there to have access to the European market.
I´ve read the whole city and countryside are dependent of that factory - the whole area living of that factory, that exports over 70 percent of their output, mostly to the European Union....!
Now the inhabitants voted mostly leave, I am very sorry but are you out of your minds ?
Honda have for now a similar factory in Swindon down south,
they made a clear statement, they are closing down if the UK
is leaving - around 3.500 jobs gone. BMW who owns the Mini
brand say the same, we are closing down if you leave.
I think the anger over EU is your miserable conditions in general in United Kingdom, which your own elected government set up for you, the union do not interfere in the state of your schools,hospitals,social benefits an so on, that is every country´s own making.
I am citizen in a small country in Europe, so I believe in cooperation, otherwise we would not be heard - so, yes I am for the European Union, if you are not satisfied, stay there and change things from within, you are not the only country in EU who want changes - you have plenty of allies - so, please stay
8
@Erik Jensen
Very well said. Ironic that my paternal grandparents were from Sunderland, before immigrating to the US in 1910. I don't know what they would have thought of the whole mess, but their grandson certainly does. Both the UK and the EU are much better off together than separate, and the youth of the country know this. A Second Referendum at this time is the only reasonable solution.
3
Brexit, as negotiated thus far,,,,would actually seem to be a win-win for both sides of the Channel.
Except for one un-resolved issue. Ireland.
Ireland is the poison pill in the deal.
Unless UK can reform Ireland........the whole Brexit Deal could be disasterous.
As far as Parliamentary Politics goes.....there seems tobe nothing usual happening.....looks more like business as usual to me. Not surprised at all the back-stabbing, rumour mongering, double crossing, so forth and so on.
Brexit rolls along with its own typical British Bulldog Tenacity.
Ireland......somewhere down the road......ends up united again and with a parliament fashioned somewhat like that of Scottish Parliament. The big losers here? The Pope.... and of course Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Twitter.....US Corps that use Ireland as a Tax HAven.
1
Voting is the opiate of the people meant to lull them into believing they control their own destiny.
3
What the Brits decide to do is for all intents and purposes none of my business. Nor is it really any of Donald Trump's business. And yet Trump's interest in demolishing the E.U. (and not-so-coincidentally servicing Vladimir Putin's ambitions) has gone a long way towards making Brexit my business. Please, guys, do give it up and make your peace with your continental cousins! We'll even let you keep Megan and give you exclusive rights to the kids.
Comment submitted 4/11 at 10:40 PM
8
@stu freeman
Good one, Stu. I actually laughed out loud at your last sentence!
3
The recanting "Brexiteers" referenced in this article were an "influential radio broadcaster" and a "chief political commentator". It's clear that the source of the Brexit movement was conservative media promoting overt a nationalism and subtle if not overt racism. I am so glad that we do not have that kind of jingoist media in the US- Oh wait, sorry........
7
The Vote proved the UK is not a socialist country. Likewise, the chattering classes fear a reduction in the public sector and social largesse that will naturally follow. But worst of all, those wishing to remain in the EU fear most the grave consequence of leaving our brothers and sisters on the continent: the likelihood of the reinforcement of the “special relationship” with the United States. You know the one, where we’re the brains and you’re the brawn.
Could you please write about something else ?
I am getting tired of Brexit
The people voted. The educated disagree. That's all
1
@Carl
If you're getting tired of it, imagine how the Brits must feel, especially now that some of the "Leavers" have had their eyes opened to the reality. Rather than the faux "Rule Britannia" nonsense, they are staring at "little england". A Second Referendum is the solution, regardless of the wishes of Rupert Murdoch and his band of despicable rascals.
Putin gazed out at the West and thought 'they need chaos'.
So, Nazis for Germany, Yellow Jackets for France, Mussolini for Italy, Brexit for Britain and Trump for America.
This six month gift of time must be used to good effect; A new government, a new Parliament, or even a 2nd referendum.
It's been argued that a 2nd is not possible, but I would argue it wouldn't be the same, binary choice that people were force to make with no notion of the complexity of the issue and with not a little Russian influence.
It could be a 4 choice ranked voting protocol with some clarity beyond 'yes' or 'no'.
And from the conservatives point of view, once they are rendered Little England, without the 4/5th largest economy in the world, do they really think England will keep their nice little navy, independent deterrent, potent RAF and highly professional army?
Perhaps India will buy those two nice new Liz class carriers they thought would be used to defend the North Sea/Iceland Gap from you know who?
The 'UK' would no longer be the pinnacle member of NATO with the special relationship with the US and would become Belgium or Portugal.
As Roger said, it simply makes no sense whatsoever.
2
The assumption that some version of Brexit won't still happen ignores the fact that the Tories and Labour have staked their political futures on delivering Brexit. The fact that Brexit is, and will be, a disaster is beside the point.Look how long it took our own country to get out of Vietnam and Iraq even though we knew for years that we had made a horrid mistake. Both parties are more concerned about the seats they might lose in the next general election then the long term damage they are doing to their country. May is a remainer who knows her political future is over but is trying to deliver something before she leaves. Corbyn has always been a eurosceptic and still has delusions about a posssible "Lexit" . Truth and reality are being trumped by fantasy and dreams of power.
33
@KJ Peters
This is all true.
The one problem Corbyn has (and the reason for hope Labour will get behind a push for a second referendum) is that the vast majority of the Labour membership support a second ref, and Labour support for it was agreed, if all else failed, at their Conference.
6
@Joan
Thanks for the kind response. Your argument is all true but by the time "if all else failed" arrives their won't be time for a second ref. Corbyn opposed the original entry into europe, his campaign for remain was halfhearted, and even though the majority of his party is remain, their is a large number of leavers in labour and just like Cameron trying to appease the ERG by giving in to their demand for a referendum, Corbyn has decided that the only way he becomes Prime Minister is to keep the leavers in Labour happy.More importantly, deep down, he wants the UK out of the EU.
3
@KJ Peters
Someone in here said it best already. The UK will eventually get it right, but only after every other option has been exhausted!
2
Brexit was sold to the British public on the basis of a fantasy, that the UK could leave the EU while retaining all the benefits of EU membership. Theresa May could have devoted the last couple of years to preparing the British public for the hard choices that Brexit would actually entail, but until recently she continued to promote the fantasy because she knew that once it became clear that Brexit entailed giving something up, her party would be split asunder.
But we should not laugh too much at the UK, because, really, was the Brexit fantasy any more fantastic than the claim "we will build a wall on the southern border and Mexico will pay for it?" And the US voted for that.
145
@Jon I totally agree, but is it so different here? A NO to "Obamacare"over the past years, but the wonderful GOP does not even have a backup and new health plan in place. They surely had enough time to produce a better plan or work on improving "Obamacare". But it's so much more fun to play with it and with the voters emotions. For America to turn to Europe and try to learn about and understand their healthcare systems is out of the question and looked as something the cat dragged in, for we rather reinvent the wheel and stumble over misconceptions.
11
During a recent holiday in rural England a butcher/fishmonger offered us this insight: " Where do they think all this fresh fruit and veg comes from? What do they (the brexiteers) think people will have to eat in the winter if we leave the EU?"
Of course, he's right, scanning the fresh food on the shelves the majority of it came from southern European countries. Much of their fish comes from other Northern European countries. All of that, post Brexit, will be subject to trade restrictions and be more expensive, if even available.
128
Some Brexiters want a special deal. I tell them we already have a special deal.
We are in the European Union, but don't have to use the Euro;
We are not in the 'no passport needed' Schengen area;
We are exempt from the 'ever closer union' direction followed by other members;
We can already expel EU citizens who don't work and seek to claim benefits;
We have robust minimum wage legislation that works rather well.
They say:
La, la, la - can't hear you;
We need a special deal;
There are too many Europeans here who don't work;
AND They work for too little pay.
I have only discussed this with three Brexiters.
One of them believes people have not visited the moon. Another had an unhappy experience working for a German company and blames the whole of the EU for this. Another is a typical narrow Sheffielder who does not even like people from other parts of Yorkshire.
The Brexit result was driven by millions of politically disengaged people who do not normally vote. The best faint hope is that the sheer effort of voting for a second time will be too much for them.
282
@Michael Gover
Tell them that their votes from the last time will count if there's a second vote, so they don't have to go to the polls. Then say, "Pass it on." That should do it.
42
@Michael Gover
Well said! I would also add that the EU permitted the exceptions for the UK originally, because it was relatively weak and needed the British. Today, the EU is so much stronger that the loss of Britain is not that devastating.
Conversely, the creation of the Norway precedant means it is highly unlikely the UK could rejoin the club (EU) on such an exceptional basis if it ever changed its mind. It would have two choices: 1. Give up the pound and meet all the continental rules or 2. Give up its sovereignty over nearly everything with no vote or seat at the table to get back into the customs union. That would be a Hobson's Choice.
One would think it should not take a new election or referendum for rational MPs to revoke Brexit. Then again, that assumes those political animals have the gumption to put country over themselves.
31
@Michael Gover
These people described must be closely related to the trump maga hatters.
In fact, they're probably all related to the Mad Hatter since they all seem to live in wonderland.
33
Mr. Oborne is quoted as saying that the EU is the glue that is holding the UK together - and I believe it is that belated realization that is forcing Leavers to reconsider their positions. If Brexit were to happen, pro EU Scotland would most likely go independent to preserve its status in the EU, and Northern Ireland might be tempted to join its southern half. As bad as the economic fallout will be with a no deal Brexit, and it will be mighty, it is the strong possibility of the United Kingdom being no longer United that will allow Brexit to fade away into the mists of the what ifs of history. A bullet dodged.
14
It is amusing, though not surprising, that the not so connected to reality but living in their own fantasy world Tories, have been duped by the same people that put Trump in the White House. The Russians are busy working to undo the post WWII world order by appealing to conservative's romantic fantasy of imagined bygone days of glory, when their kings and royalty and generals and military was, at least in their minds, the scourge of the globe.
19
This is a very presumptuous opinion, which is condescending to the People of Great Britain and the decision THEY made when THEY voted.
1
@Brewster Millions Haha - that's very funny. Remember that the essence of democracy is that the people get to decide on a course of action. And if it was right before, it will be right again. And again. And again. Let the people vote on and on, forever.
5
@Brewster Millions
As one of the People of (the United Kingdom of) Great Britain (and Northern Ireland) who voted in the referendum, I agree (for the most part) with Mr Cohen's opinion.
You will find that there are as many opinions about the referendum result as there are voters. The UK is extremely polarised.
6
@Brewster Millions
You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Still true.
Brexit was sold on fantasies and the people have discovered that they live in a real world. There's a reason Boris Johnson jumped out of the way when Brexit passed--he knew his time of fooling people was about over.
5
The British electorate narrowly voted Brexit to express dissatisfaction with EU bossiness and bureaucracy, and resentment of German economic domination. After three years of muddle, the prospect of unmoderated governance by British politicians seems the riskier choice.
What is it about British and American culture that promotes individual achievement but dooms collective efforts to abject failure? Could the governments in London and Washington be any more ridiculous? Is the English language suitable for endless discussion and dissension but useless for consensus and action?
25
As an American, I am reluctant to get into the weeds of the Brexit issue. However, as an American, I can say that when one of the architects of severing ties with the EU, Nigel Farage, showed up at a Trump rally in Mississippi to cheer on the worst President in our history, something told me that Brexit just had to be a very bad idea.
50
@PaulB67 If you think THAT is bad, you should read up on how Farage intentionally gave a false concession speech right after the polls had closed -- literally two minutes after -- despite having access to private polling by hedge funds that it had actually succeeded. The implication being that he was intentionally driving up the value of the British pound so that these hedge funds pals could short it at an even higher value, before the real results became known. At one point there was talk of a criminal investigation against him in UK, though I don't know what happened to it over time.
13
As a hardcore Anglophobe, I keep asking myself why I really care about the Brexit issue. I read all I can on the subject, even British newspapers, and watch the livestream debate in the HofC.
I guess it really comes down to my perhaps foolish hope that if sanity finally prevails among the British public and they reject the chicanery of Farange, Johnson and Rees-Moggs that the same will happen here in the United States.
21
Now Jeremy Corbyn will have to honor his commitment to be a democratic leader of the Labour Party -- he has fudged on this, at great risk to his integrity -- and place the need to Remain in the EU above his cherished leftist ideals. And Labour Party members will have to make it clear to him right now that he has no other choice.
Any reasonable observer still doubting that leaving the EU is the wrong move for the United Kingdom has only to read the excellently argued piece by Peter Osborne that Mr Cohen mentions.
I always suspected that merry British thing about "Oh.we'll muddle through." Now is the time for renouncing that bit of nonsense. From this disaster must come a sense of purpose, a national commitment to not continue to muddle through but to be the great nation that Britain, for all its faults and imperialism, has been so many times over the centuries.
One last point: it is high time to respect the opposition people have to immigration and understand that the countries of origin of mass immigration must be compelled to improve their systems of governance so that their people can live and prosper in their own countries. The disgrace of immigration is that people are driven to emigrate by corrupt and inefficient governments at home.
To counter the present wave of right-wing and repugnant nationalism, we need a newer wave of efficiency and intelligence in government. That is the real deal.
11
Parliamentary democracies should avoid referendums. In a representative democracy the only acceptable and viable type of referendum is the general election. Nevertheless, if referendums, for all their weaknesses and faults, are held on critical national issues the result should not depend on a simple majority. In these cases, at the very least, a 'special' majority should be required, 60-70% for example. Saying that 'the people have spoken' based on a majority of 52% is specious at best.
16
Isn't is marvelous how after all the tweets and fakes, eventually reality reasserts itself, and how truth is still the shortest path to it?
After the digital dark ages, there shall be again a period of enlightenment.
10
One month after the Brexit referendum I bet my cousin, an American living in London working for an investment bank, that Brexit would never happen. There was too vast a difference between the fantasy Brexit sold to the voters, and the reality Brexit that would tear the nation apart and impoverish all. Parliament could not follow through on the vote, any more than they could follow through on a vote to make the moon into cheese.
My cousin could not believe I was willing to bet even-odds. Living in London, he thought it a done deal. But Cohen doesn't go far enough; at this point Brexit is dead.
Soon it will be official; I plan on collecting my quid by Halloween.
13
@Sam I Am
Don't be too cocky!
The Brits will always do the right thing - but only after they have exhausted all other possibilities.
I still see quite a few foolish options floating around there.
1
Yes! Trade, NOT weaponry, is the greatest guarantor of peace. Brexit supporters should've seen this all along, The EU has not only given Europe its greatest prosperity in history but was also the "glue" keeping the UK together.
16
As a 74 year old ex-European, I have heard my share of jokes deprecating each country, many in poor taste, a decent number funny in spite of their bigotry and a few even good natured. None of them approached the surrealistic insanity of the joke the British people are playing on themselves. Come on, people, we all appreciate the famed self deprecating British humor — we’re fans of Hugh Grant after all — but now you’ve gone too far. Just forget about it and stay in the EU.
17
As so many commentators have pointed out, the original blunder was David Cameron's decision to short circuit the entire deliberative parliamentary process by putting the whole Brexit matter out to a binary referendum, which allowed Boris Johnson and Vladimir Putin to work their mischief, as they did so well in that annus horribilis of 2016.
Of course, once the referendum passed, the parliament was painted into a corner. The ultimate outcome was forced on them by outside forces, rather than as a final product of internal negotiation and debate, which is how a parliamentary system is supposed to work.
Government by referendum is a clunky and inefficient way to get anything done, whether for a lowly City Council zoning issue or for an entire country.
In a strange way, the deliberative process with its non-result ultimately served a purpose by allowing cooler heads to prevail and for passions to die down. Maybe this was the best result after all.
23
@John M
Indeed, the rather glib toss by Cameron to parliament was short-sighted and resulted in the disastrous consequences, aided by Johnson and Putin, to leave the EU. Folly. A nation of mercantilists and trade yoked to a small country beset w/their own internal disagreements among Scotland, Northern Ireland only goes one way. Cooler heads now prevail, hopefully. I think May has knocked herself out regardless of polls. At least, the delaying seems to have a beneficial effect.
10
If one can't properly identify a goal or a problem, solutions and plans are hard to formulate. It's not Brexit. It's UK-exit. At this late stage, even Cohen must realize this. But he blithely trundles along in deepening ruts, referring to British sentiment, British electorate, and somehow squeezes in the issue of Northern Ireland without quite mentioning the separate Irishness. That, NI, and the commitment made by successive UK governments to the Belfast Agreement, the Peace Process, and the right of the people of NI to decide their own future represents the big stumbling block and the failure of politicians and commentators to see reality.
5
Nothing like mentioning Trump to get NYT readers interested and motivated to comment. What Cohen and the neoliberal establishment can't accept, and will do their utmost to overturn, is that over 17 MILLION citizens of the UK voted for Brexit. They voted to leave the EU; they did vote for a deal, any deal.
Moreover, the vote in favour of Brexit was in June 2016, five months before the US election. Therefore, whatever Trump says has had nothing to do with the Referendum outcome. The vote might have been mistaken, but it was an exercise in popular democracy, a result that the "people's representatives" in parliament have done their best to overturn. What is fully demonstrated is that "all power to the people" leads to simple choices without the prospect of compromise, but legislatures will compromise legislation to death.
Consider another referendum, one in which "remain"wins by the same narrow victory as Brexit did in the first one. What would be settled with half the country strongly embittered by the outcome. Would Cohen propose the best two of three?
As usual for neoliberals, e.g., Cohen, a small reduction in current income is considered as a disaster to be avoided, but the loss of democratic legitimacy by having laws and regulations imposed by an unelected global bureaucracy is just fine.
Remember the song sung by Jimmy Durante in "The Man Who Came To Dinner": "Did you ever have the feeling you wanted to stay, but still had the feeling you wanted to go"?
BREXIT!?
2
@San Ta
Yes, a majority of UK voters voted to leave. They also voted for a Brexit that would deliver millions of pounds to the NHS. They voted for a brexit that would stop the coming invasion of millions of Turks. They voted for a brexit that would let the UK trade with EU with little to no restrictions. They voted for a Brexit that would deliver a series of brilliant free trade agreements with countries all over the world. They voted for a Brexit that wouldn't deliver a customs border, either on sea or land, in Northern Ireland. Where did that Brexit go?
16
@San Ta Unfortunately modern democracy is not as clean and simple as in the past. Social media coupled with political influence by a desperate nation of criminal oligarchs has changed and influenced a public adverse to reading and intellectual thought. Maybe this is the reason that democracies are headed toward the abyss. Looking into the darkness, some out of the box moves may have to be made to save democracy from itself. In the new world of infinite information, innovation and self introspection may be a better cure than purist simplicity.
5
@San Ta and how many of those 17 million would've voted differently if they'd known the slogans on the Brexit camp's bus, for example, were flat-out lies?
And you don't have to take my word for that last bit - Farage admitted it, on TV, the day after the vote.
12
Amidst all the turmoil in the world, it is amazing how our once great democracies, the US and the UK cannot seem to get anything accomplished. We bicker, we fight, we alienate, we blame and we get nothing done to improve anything. Meanwhile the world moves on and whatever happens is anyone's guess as leadership is nowhere to be found.
11
Regardless of what you say about the unwritten constitution and the anachronism of the House of Lords this does seems to me to be an endorsement for the Parliamentary system as it is forcing us to think long and hard about what we are doing. That's not to say that there's not a problem with coalitions within both the Tory and Labour establishment parties as a result of an essentially two party system etc, and it has seemed a bit of a farce, but still? There's a lot wrong with it but I could cite other examples where May et al could have carried on regardless.
I would add that I do think that we also need to think long and hard about the process of holding referendums and ensuring a protection against 'false news' etc as well, but that's another story perhaps.
8
in the years since the referendum vote to leave the EU, many of the effected companies have already made their adjustments in preparation for the change. They won't just sit an wait to see what happens they protect their business by making the necessary adjustments... which may mean moving or setting up office in EU.
6
Just as New Zealand showed the way with legislating their gun culture, the UK should take this moment as an opportunity to stand up and be a model for modern, information-age democracy and hold a second referendum that uses all the technology on hand to present accurate information for both sides of the debate. Let's learn from our mistakes from the past few years, with regard to FB, Russia, Cambridge Analytica, etc. And it will serve us all well in advance of the US 2020 elections. This doesn't have to be a post-truth era.
50
i'm still hoping that the uk will find itself outside the EU - their commitment to the european project is lukewarm at best. this entire brexit experience has truly exposed the UK as being a shadow of its former 'imperial 'important' self.
3
A big hint that BREXIT is a disaster is the fact Trump and Putin support it. It’s harmful to Great Britain’s economy and could literally break up the country. It’s time for a do-over referendum.
Both Greece and United States made a massive mistake in 2016. In 2019 Great Britain can reverse its BREXIT disaster. In 2020 the United States can get rid of Trump.
Let’s both recover!
98
A correction. In the second paragraph I meant to say Great Britain and the United States made mistakes in 2016. I wrote Greece by mistake. Sorry.
1
I blame both Brexit and Trump on the taking of conservatism to its absurd conclusion. Always prior we have been able to keep a lid on the Birchers and flat-earthers. But when you/we dismantle the progressive tax structure, disempower labor and unions, and set the poor against the poorer, somehow there becomes a no-bottom situation where the center can no longer hold. Where the body politic begins to feed on itself, move against self interest and literally self destruct.
50
@Tom Hayden Brexit was driven by xenophobia; it had nothing to do with conservative principles.
Arguably the most important consequence of Brexit would be destruction of the National Health System, which is beloved by most Britains, because the NHS is largely staffed by Europeans, not Brits.
4
@Donald do you really believe that xenophobia is now not a bedrock conservative principle? It seems pretty universal among conservatives across the globe.
2
@Tom Hayden Should Minnesota be posturing about Election results?
1
Maybe Trump can lay the Brexit problem on the doorstep of the E.U. calling them "brutal". Trump's comment is meant to cast the people of Britain as victims. This whole Brexit mess is not the British people's doing; it's caused by outsiders. Of course Trump's talking point makes no sense because the E.U. has been very accommodating and appears willing to let Britain take all the time they need to get their act together. The status quo is better than a no-deal Brexit they correctly surmise. Of course, Trump's "brutal E.U." talking point is strictly meant for his 40% base. What his base doesn't realize is that the 27 countries that constitute the E.U. mostly likely view his comment as ridiculous. Hopefully Trump's base will conclude that a cheap thrill isn't worth the loss of U.S. standing and international leadership in Europe. That's where Trump is taking America. It's not a win for us. It's a net loss.
13
@Dan The only reason the EU seem to be accommodating, they are playing a waiting game....the longer it goes on the more chance of Brexit being reversed.
5
The Brexit debacle demonstrates how easy it is to manipulate the masses with digital propaganda, false political messages and sympathetic media owners. Britain desperately needs a written Constitution with clear rules written in plain English about how and why referendums are held, campaign finance and media ownership. Other monarchies have written Constitutions so there is no excuse. To become a proper European country Britain needs to drop its pompous exceptionalism.
19
@Jason Bourne: Does the UK need a written constitution? Just asking.
In the meantime the solution is simple. The EU imposes a deadline. The UK pleads for mercy on the grounds of stupidity. the EU grants an extension with another deadline...Repeat.
4
@JoeG: Simple--to the simple minded. Meanwhile, how are the people of all of Ireland to live in the uncertainty?
I was looking forward to once again watching the BBC, as it has become a dreadful bore the past two years with this constant mind-numbing Brexit nonsense.
Leave, stay, just DECIDE something.
5
The UK is a unwieldy union that muddles through unnecessary crises of its own doing. Although it persevered admirably in World War Two, it has ever since been weighed down by the overweening pretension and incompetence of the British political class. There is neither a Tory nor labor savior in sight because neither party has adapted to the 21st Century. Lest all the blame be laid upon politicians, too many older Britons voted for Brexit due to a wrong-headed nostalgia for a supposedly glorious, sovereign, pre-EU past that rested upon the subjugation of other peoples. Perhaps the vestiges of empire will end with a united Ireland and a free Scotland. Je suis prest.
9
The Brexit debacle is a sad reminder of how unreasonable and easily manipulated the voters can be.
The Brexiteers voted to leave based on all the perceived costs they suffered as a member of the E.U., particularly a fear of floods of immigrants to the U.K.
But they forgot to count up all the benefits they would lose if they actually went their own way!
21
Brexiters are like the Trump cult. They serf/lower class element of the upper Midwest had a gripe, in some cases a valid one. British working class/underclass labor, ditto. They were financed by the consultancies of a bunch of wealthy, "conservative" ideologues who had visions of the British empire being recaptured. Put together you get the 10 tooth rube cult of Britain and of course the Brexit vote. No thought, just football type chants and slogans. (I don't know what a Brexit chant was but think of something similar to Lock Her Up, where all the words ending in 'a' get turned into one ending in 'er'.) It isn't that the working class/underclass hadn't been wronged by crony capital. It was, but teaming up with crony capital and being used just shows how far society has fallen, either here or over there.
15
Great article Mr. Cohen! This clarifies so many things for me that I have been unable to understand in the British press!!! I just hope the tide turns, to coin a famous phrase, and that the British will stay in!
It has certainly been a week for Black Holes! They are now a visible phenomena. I just wish it was the same in North America!
10
The three-year long uncertainty and confusion combined with three-time rejection of the Theresa May offered Brexit deal, and a simultaneous expression of parliamentary intent to avoid no-deal abrupt exit also reinforce the need to give the second referendum a chance which could perhaps end the current impasse and prevent the Brexit from going into the Black hole oblivion.
3
If the comedy pair Abbott and Costello were alive today, they would have had a field day with Brexit.
If truth becomes a requirement for political discussion in the US, we will hear the sound of one hand clapping.
1
I did not know Scotland had comedians.
@thebigmancat
You've never heard of Billy Connolly? Craig Ferguson? Armando Ianucci (Veep)?
Let Northern Ireland have a referendum. Scotland, as well.
Why wait for Westminster to act or not act, again?
6
Most of what I read and hear through all Media(left, right, up, down, all around) is a desparate confusing plea to keep the world from changing. All this simultaneously with the Liberal Democratic Establishment rhetoric still echoeing from 1968 ,,, demanding change!
Well.....here's your change.
Brexit....after filtering out all the noise .... looks to be a very positive arrangement for both sides of the Channel ..... and its largely been agreed to......
The major hurdle lately has been the task of handling the US Corporate Tax Haven called ..... Ireland.
And with Ireland,,,,England has to open up centuries of baggage that everyone else has forgotten about.
The Irish Problem is the only thing delaying Brexit at the moment.
1
Brexit?
Please, let me share an advice from somebody who has seen that and been there.
I was born in Yugoslavia.
The breakup of shared community led to the terrible sufferings and social destruction.
The breakup is a public admission of our inabilities and limitations. Allegedly, we cannot fix the problem so we are going to destroy whatever reminds us of it.
That’s the essence of Brexit.
It probably was approved because the people were terrified by the colossal wave of immigrants from the Arab world.
Nobody wondered why it happened. It unfolded because the NATO countries invaded and bombed Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya, while militarily and diplomatically helping the worst dictators in the Saudi Arabia and Egypt crash the budding democratic movements in the Middle East.
The second part of problem is that nobody understands how to finally modernize the religions and discard the ancient tribal rituals, dogmas and traditions from the Old Age.
When everybody is making mistakes it’s hard to solve the problems.
That’s when the people start panicking and actually destroy something in their best interest, something serving, helping and defending them.
We did exactly that in ex-Yugoslavia.
Please, be smarter than us and learn from our mistakes.
Stop cutting the branch you are sitting on!
If you cannot subdue your first emotions, wrong impressions and animalistic instincts, they you cannot control your own life either.
54
@Kenan Porobic
Beautifully written Mr. Porobic. I wish more people shared your way of thinking.
5
@Kenan Porobic.
An absolutely brilliant comment!
4
"May’s proposed “deal” (in reality a kick-the-can fudge) never had a chance."
Exactly. Faking it didn't sell, to anyone. We shouldn't be surprised by that.
Why fake it? Because she didn't want to do it, or just couldn't. So she tried to pretend to do it.
2
Mark Thomason: "she didn't want to do it." To do what? If she, or you, can't define what is to be done, it's hard to "do it." Leave the EU? Repudiate the Belfast Agreement? Break up the UK?
So Mr. Osborne throws the final punch line. It took all yhis time to finally figure out that the “gentle” persuasion of the EU membership is what really holds the UK together? Wow, what a stroke of brilliance! One other thing he failed to mention - a broken and fractured Britain, after the split with the EU, would now be free to pursue, yes you have heard this many times, bi-lateral trade deals as an independent nation!! Now many of us former Colonies have heard this scenario played out before - better a Britain chained and “civilized” by the EU than a broken Britain roaring and unleashed on a free world, bent on reclaiming their “lost rights” and “former glory” in the vain pursuit of Empire 2.0!
Brexit is insanity. It was based on a demented and nostalgically delusional dream and promoted with falsehoods and lies. It would mean a decline in the standard of living of all Britain and actually threaten the dissolution politically of the UK.
It must be reversed and hopefully reality will somehow allow this to happen. Those responsible for this nightmare should be permanently dismissed from political power and the vacillating Conservative leadership will be regarded in the future as abysmal failures and as a horrific joke!
3
Perhaps Murdoch of Fox Empire and the desire to sell divisive ideas for the greedy profit they generate will finally get the light and disinfectant they deserve.
4
Brexit, Brexit...
What’s that?
What’s this story really about?
It’s about democracy. Real democracy!
Does it exist at all? Do the people know what they are doing?
The voting is absolutely irrelevant because we as the humans have no idea what we are electing.
I vividly remember the voting in ex-Yugoslavia in the late eighties and early nineties, the original YUEXIT. We voted for the colossal lies. We were offered the raw nationalism wrapped up in democracy, freedom, tolerance, prosperity, better standard of living and more rights.
We didn’t get any of that but just the colossal suffering, ethnic cleansing, war, destruction, social break up and the biblical theft of the shared wealth.
Is democracy real? As much as God and faith. Everybody is talking about those but nobody has ever seen them.
The politicians and the parliaments exist in the same way as the clergy and the churches. We vote hopefully mimicking the way in which we pray for better tomorrow. Whatever good happens the politicians and the priests take credit for it. Anything bad or despicable going on is responsibility of somebody else.
Democracy is supposed to take care of the people. If it serves the capital, then it cannot have two different masters.
It seems that the capital is the true God in both democracy and religions...
The humanity is in blind submission in front of it, including the free press and the academic community.
3
These whole proceedings are a fascinating example of Condorcet’s paradox. They show that there is really no such thing as “the will of the people.” You can get a majority for anything you want by choosing which options are on the table and in which order.
Democracy is good, on average, because it is better at protecting individual rights and utilitarianism than other kinds of government, but it should not be sacralized as it is based on an illogical myth.
There is a great deal of discussion in the worlds media about the chaos and confusion regarding Brexit,making Britian a laughing stock etc etc This is wrong
Disregarding the merits/demerits of Brexit people should clearly see what the situation is politically
Essentially England/Britian has had for threehundred years or so an ^adversarial ^political system first the Kings /rich mans party while facing them the smaller aristos/peoples party.Although the names have changed its always been the same,Puritans v Royalists,whiggs v Tories,Liberals v Tories,LabourSocialists v Tories
Unusually today the two opposing parties today have both split into extreme right wing Tories (fanatical leavers) and normal tories and normal Labourites with some leaving Labourites(the Labour head Corbyn has always hated the EU regarding it as a rich mans club) Most Brexit leaving voters were Labour
In fact there really should be at least four parties in Parliament not two (ignoring SNP / DUP)
People forget that in EU countries governments are often made of coalitions of parties working together Germany has SEVEN main parties and two extreme parties make up Merkels coalition goverment. Coalition governments or arrangements are not liked in Britain (or America) .they can make a nation seem politically weak but in a fragmented society they are really the only way a nation can sometimes move forward in both Britian or America (the Republicans and Democrats absolutely refuse to work together on anything)
4
"The Tories may try to throw out May in favor of a hard-liner like Boris Johnson. They may force a general election. Either way, they are looking wounded and weakened."
The British could emerge from this with Corbyn as Prime Minister of a Labour government.
That would be a fitting end to the Tory and Tory lite of Thatcher and Blair.
4
It's so clear to me (a New Yorker) what the solution is: have a second referendum. There is no affront to democracy in having another referendum because the British were lied to in the first referendum. There's no shame to admitting you made a mistake.
8
It seems from what I have read about the differences in the British population that voted to leave versus those who voted to stay mimic in many ways the divide between Trump supports today and those today who despise the man.
It is an urban vs rural or small town division, college educated vs not, religious vs not, low income vs higher, believe in climate change or not, xenophobic or not etc.
The Trump and Anti EU people supporters were and are being told lies that they desperately want to believe.
Labor is divided and the Tories are divided like Britain is divided and no matter the outcome these divisions will persist for the foreseeable future.
1
From reading the comments, there seems to be a general assumption that IF there is another vote, still a big if, enough Brexiteers will wise up and vote remain.
I'm reminded of H L Mencken's attributed quote:- "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people."
Substitute Brits for Americans and it's easy to see why any second vote, is no shoe in for Remain.
3
Both the leave and remain side overestimated the UK's bargaining power with the EU. In fact, the UK has none. So the endless references to the UK getting a "deal" with the EU is delusional. It's take it or leave it. Brexit, in fact, is nothing more than an attempt on the part of the wealthy right-wing to dodge paying the taxes they owe on their off shore accounts under the new Anti Tax Avoidance Directive from the EU. This is why the rich brexiters are so frantically impatient for a no-deal.
17
It's tempting to laugh at Brexit, but in Brexit we see a metaphor for governance in a world that's overpopulated, overcomplicated, overstratified, overstimulated, overinformed, overanalyzed, and yet under-understood?
When you can get anything you want from Amazon or for dinner via Seamless, what happens when your government can't deliver what you ordered b/c it can't? And what happens when you want Thai food and someone else wants a burger, but you can only order from one restaurant?
Democracy is a fragile thing and politicians, even when they aren't lying, are people pleasers. They don't always tell you what you don't want to hear because it's not in them. They are sales people, glad handlers, and fantasists.
They make laughable promises. They are going to deliver "over 3 percent growth" to the entire economy for every year they are in office. Their new tax plan with the 39.5% highest bracket is monumentally better than their ideological opponents with their laughable 39.3% highest bracket." It all feels so stale and so incapable.
It's been several generations since Western politicians had to deal with real crises. The type that will come from climate change and the day when our debt driven economy goes into an unavoidable depression. When real crisis does appear, and Brexit is a symptom of what could be around the corner for us, the Western Democracies have grown to ossified to handle them. Heaven help us.
16
One metaphor for the Brexit process that I've seen a couple of times seems very fitting, and helps to explain why the process is proving so hopeless: It's like trying to undo an omelet and retrieve the original eggs that went into it.
9
A second referendum is the answer- one based in majority voting, not on a plurality.
10
Excellent summary Mr. Cohen. And kudos to Merkel who, per reports, worked feverishly behind the scenes of this week's meeting of European leaders to get the unanimous vote in support of the extension, which may well lead to a return to sanity. It would appear her calm, mature leadership is something else Britain could certainly use.
99
There is no shame in changing your mind. If after spending three years looking into leaving it has turned out to be a bad idea then stay but do something before there's no country to worry about.
24
@Thomas Renner I completely agree.. It's time we americans reconsidered this Declaration of Independence nonsense. Its time we admit that it is foolish for us to abandon the best economic arrangement the world has ever known.
1
@Wherever Hugo. I never said they should leave, I said there's no shame in changing your mind. I really don't know know what's best as I live here and have little knowledge of the situation. I do think it's time to do something besides stall.
1
The Deal. The US versions are the Green New Deal, the Healthcare Deal and the Immigration Deal. Wishful thinking that Donald Trump, who like Theresa May, seeks only counsel from a select few in the “Circle of Trust”. Until May and Trump are gone neither country will see progress on the deals needed to save their countries from pain and anguish. Let’s hope the voters recognize the problems and elect leaders who widen their circle.
16
@Daniel Salazar Please. That Green New Deal is ripped directly from the pages of the UnaBomber Manifesto. You cant be serious?
It's now inarguable that the British public was highly misinformed, and in fact purposely lied to on a large scale, at the time of the referendum, and without the misinformation significant numbers would have voted differently. That alone invalidates the original vote, and makes a redo of the referendum not only fair but actually mandated.
We are two decades into the 21st century. The days of "Britannia Rules the Waves" are long gone, and have been since at least 1918 if not earlier. Britain has been doing pretty well within the EC, and it's future success, like all nations its size, lies with cooperating with others in blocs that can compete in the world, not going it alone. Nostalgia for a lost past has no place in building a future for the generations to come.
54
The public is often misinformed, that why voting is fraught with so many bad results. It takes a lot of work to keep informed on current events, and most of us would rather do elsewise with out time.
4
@eclectico
Keep informed?
With lots of shiny baubles dangled in front of the citizen's eyes.
Always something 'new'.
And then another day is done.
It seems to me that this long drawn-out Brexit has revealed to the people of Northern Ireland (both those who consider themselves British and those who consider themselves Irish) that the people in England do not have what is best for Northern Ireland utmost in their minds. Northern Ireland has been an afterthought. I wonder if this revelation will lead those in Northern Ireland to leave the UK whether or not Brexit happens? We live in interesting times.
10
Switzerland's top court just overruled a recent tax referendum there, on grounds that insufficient information had been made available to voters prior to the vote. The court required a redo of the referendum - with sufficient info disseminated to voters. An idea the Remainers might want to pursue in the UK courts?
59
@Rethinking You suggest non-partisan information for another country--
While we in the US still operate like our political Parties are sports teams, and elections are WWE?
Start at home!
2
I knew this would be a disaster the morning of the Brexit referendum. But the destruction about institutions, civic violent would be at least bad. I didn't understand that the way of living and action in Britain would be noxious. I still understand so many people people like myself who are Europeans. half-French. I still hope that in Britain we can think again. I cannot really what happens to a country like ours. Wrongly people didn't like Parliament and democracy. They hate also the BBC. Strangely people don't like Dutch, French and Irish. I hoped that the civilization of Britain, with of course, would have a good name now. Will people think again now? I wonder whether they will. It was a good place in Britain.
4
Brexit can also be interpreted as a plebiscite on identity, be that national or individual. As such, it tells us that the Leavers were/are enamored with British superiority, whether compared to not just to the French and Germans but to Romanians and Bulgarians. How could a Pole, a Romanian or a Bulgarian be equal to them?
Imperial hubris and pomposity, arrogance and the need to insult others were at play, all human foibles. We observed that these frailties applied to older British and not to the young who voted to Stay; we can conclude that Brexit has a historical curse written all over. "Others are lesser" "We were the masters" etc. Brexit trafficked in such tropes, insulted the neighbors and partners in EU, and in the process exposed the Leavers identities; nothing to be pleased with, on the contrary, Brexit is a vapid proposition, a losing proposition because it is unmanageable and will inflict great economic damage on Britain, it will split it and result in a small England.
Moreover, Leavers have become fodder for well deserved ridicule, which is tricky, for a misguided ego can make one cling to a wrong position with heighten resolve.
Brexit will be a tough lesson to learn for the British, a search for a new identity if they are to become valuable partners in EU which undoubtedly is the most ambitious human project in history, considering the brutal European history. EU has delivered Peace and Prosperity. British must Stay!
21
@Nicholas. As was pointed out elsewhere, following the 2008 economic collapse, the Bank of England infused capital to rescue the economy, whereas the European Central Bank did not, thus exacerbating a slow recovery and unemployment for the young. The latter saw possibilities in the U.K., to which they immigrated, thereby creating social issues among the British.
3
I believe and hope Mr Cohen is correct. Brexit is probably dead - but is some way from being buried. And we cannot be complacent. It is incumbent on all elected representatives who believe in the EU and the UK's place in it, that form the majority in Parliament, to stand up and make the case and vociferously. There are certainly dangers ahead, the European elections being but one. Already Farage is fundraising for his Brexit Party (he's no longer a member of UKIP). He is the single most destructive force in the country appealing to those in England who don't care if the United Kingdom breaks apart. He certainly has no constituency of any size in Scotland and is not welcome here. There is plenty of scope for the pro-EU lobby to hold the Brexit charlatans to account for their false and overly optimistic statements before and after the last referendum which have been proven by events to be completely delusional. Yet there is a hard core of those who will never accept the reality that the UK will be poorer in so many ways for leaving the EU. The worst are those politicians in the Tory party Fox, Redwood, Rees-Mogg, Francois, Baker and Cash who refuse to believe the evidence of the last three years. How it will all end is yet to be determined but I am more optimistic at the end of this week than I have been for a very long time.
32
@Hopeoverexperience
I am also somewhat hopeful, but I agree with you completely that pro-EU voters cannot be complacent.
There is a non-political get-out-the-vote campaign for the (most likely in the UK) upcoming EU Parliament elections and remainers must campaign to get out the vote. https://www.thistimeimvoting.eu/
Farage and his Brexit Party are already fielding candidates and starting their campaign.
I would have preferred a longer extension to take some of the immediate pressure off and allow for some reflection but that was not to be.
5
@Hopeoverexperience Don't forget your National Clown-- Boris. An opportunist if there ever was one!
2
Fifty years down the road, historians will examine how Britain was hoodwinked to vote for Brexit in 2016. THey will conclude that it was a result of dishonest propaganda by political parties like UKIP, of implicit support of the Tories, and a head-in-the-sand approach by Labor party whose leadership could not decide which side it was on.
It is amazing that issues like Irish border and whether to stay in custom union or not, were never debated honestly at the time of referendum, by any party. Failure to do so at that time is a cause of farce that we have seen in negotiations between Mrs Theresa May and the British parliament.
50
I commend the EU for its "benign offsetting influence" that kept GB from destroying itself. From a distance, I could see the error of Brexit, but the GB citizens had to learn for themselves. Maybe in the long run Theresa May deserves a medal for keeping things going and the EU for putting up with her so long. Here's hoping for an end to Brexit.
11
The question posed to British voters in 2016 was simplistically: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” It was never specified how this would be implemented, the implications for the Irish border or the overall economic impact.
That void was filled by partisans shouting “take back control” and promising that €350 mil more weekly for the NHS, a claim meekly withdrawn the day after the vote. They have since remained entirely devoid of practical solutions, roaring to life occasionally with extreme versions they know responsible members would never allow to be tried and making May’s quixotic quest even more difficult.
Since the British people were unable to make an informed decision about Brexit in 2016 and should be allowed that opportunity before irrevocable damage is done.
38
No-deal Brexit has a purpose and value. It would free big business in Britain from EU regulations, and regulations for the protection of the environment, consumers and workers, and work against climate catastrophe, could be slashed. This would reduce the population of the EU so reduce the power of the EU to make such regulation.
It would benefit a very small group of people, and impose significant costs on everyone else- by worsening climate change and the Anthropocene mass extinction, and by for some time making trade between Britain and the EU considerably more cumbersome, indefinitely, among other things.
So, it can only be supported with far-right flagwaving, and appeal to emotional but contentless slogans such as "freedom" and "take control". Freedom for whom?
19
It's seems difficult to refrain from a psychological analysis of Brexit. The work-up in the U.S. and Britain seem the same.
The economic liberalization and interconnected markets of the last 40 years have made business the invisible hand of government. Because the median world income is only $1, 225 per person, the inevitable result of open markets, as economies around the world globalize, is that eventually the poor in all countries will be equally poor. In the U.S. and Europe, this means the bottom half of wage-earners will get poorer over the years, and their wealth slowly shift to the ultra-poor in countries whose economies are modernizing. The ultra-rich will soon be distributed everywhere as well.
The current role of governments in rich countries is to hide -- by any means necessary -- this obvious result of free markets. We are now all economic (not political) Marxists. The vast profits of globalized industry flow mostly to the 1% (and 0.1%). The 10% and 20% and 30% get diminishing cuts of those profits, and everyone else will be getting poorer. This is how capitalism works in global free markets.
The great sleight-of-hands of demagogues in Britain and the U.S. is to blame this obvious processes on marginalized people instead of the system as a whole. So in Britain the E.U. is suddenly the devil and in the U.S. Trump dishes out invective to foreigners, blacks, democrats -- anything to deflect attention from the true source of impoverishment -- greed.
64
@Kip Leitner The only response to this comment is-
That's the truth.
11
Why is that the inevitable result? Who says it spreads out evenly?
It is not only the Euro Elections that are a marker about the brexit folly. Here in Hove, as I go from door during the current Local Elections, I find it as much a subject as anything else.
2
Mr. Cohen, you've got it all exactly right—except for one feature: Apparently (according to BBC news I've read), the Oct. 31 deadline doesn't provide enough time for a second referendum.
So, there is only one result: Parliament votes to cancel Brexit, for its own reasons of stalemate, but also in view of the compelling reasons you cite: keeping the UK together—and also, of course, polls consistently show that Brits are securely in the majority for Remain (not to mention Scotland and Northern Ireland).
Courage to Remain and FAITH that Britain can find leadership that can work constructively with the demonstrably flexible EU to resolve the issues that motivated Leave (by misinformation and bad leadership)—THAT is the only sane solution.
6
@gary e. davis
The new deadline gives enough time - just - for a second referendum, provided that action is taken by the end of this month to instigate it, which is very unlikely, but we live in a time where the unlikely suddenly becomes the happened...
6
@Andrew Norris I do hope you're right. My reservation was based on BBC sources who said the mechanics of organizing a second referendum don't allow one before Oct. 31. But I've argued for a second referendum for many months. In fact, I argued (via blog) back in June 2016 for Parliamentary leadership in the wake of an ill-informed vote: "The Brexit vote is not legally binding" (http://tinyurl.com/y4mpeflc )
Could someone explain why not being in the cartel otherwise known as the EU yet abiding by their rules is such a bad deal? It seems to work for Norway.
The common market solution is the only one that could work. They won’t stay and they can’t go, they just haven’t worked through the Kübler-Ross stages of grief yet.
@D Priest
To enjoy integration into the common market, a country needs to abide by the common EU rules and accept the four freedoms, including free movement (not only for capital, but people).
Which is why Switzerland and Norway basically ARE informal members of the EU sans the voting rights. You might understand why Brexiters (and Europhiles) think of such a position as 'stupid' and the 'worst of both worlds', nothwithstanding the fact, that those two countries continue to profit a great deal from the formation of the EU's single market at their doorstep.
I can't speak for Norway, but my own country has, as a result of this attachment, its own share of (very loud) "Swixiters" who bang on about 'sovereignty' and the (self imposed) lack of democratic representation in Brussels, though they would never embrace the obvious solution: Full membership.
The irony of Brexit is, that the UK was actually the most priviledged member of the EU, with all kinds of opt-outs and special "Extrawurst"-treatments, given to it by admiring Continentals acknowledging the Brits for their crucial role in defeating Hitler, as well as for their pivotal position as the cultural linchpin of the english speaking 'free world' in the post war decades.
1
@D Priest
Let me try to answer your good question. Norway allows free passage of people (migrants) across Norway and the EU, anathema to Brexiteers and a basic, racist motive for Brexit. Norway as well has entered into E.U. trade arrangements that are also forbidden by the basic Brexit tenants.
The fiction of soft Brexit is that Britain’s declared Brexit terms are mutually exclusive and self-delusional. The vote three years ago was based on lies and fictions and now the piper must be paid.
Immigration is shaping up to be the defining international issue of the next decade and beyond. Indeed, Brexit has always been about the EUs Freedom of Movement, which gives the UK little control over its borders. While Brexit would be financially ruinous and tear apart the UK, Leavers won't back down from their position until immigration changes are agreed to by the EU. Undoubtedly, that will not happen and thus Brexit, will occur. A Customs Union, although imperfect, seems like the most likely outcome.
3
@MJG
Corbyn is insisting that freedom of movement must end in any new deal with the EU, including a Customs Union.
In turn, Macron insists if a Customs Union is to be the new UK deal with the EU, freedom of movement must be a part of it. Not sure where Merkel, whose position has more weight, will stand on that issue but presume she will take any deal the EU can get with the UK.
1
@MJG It's got very little to do with freedom of movement, after all the UK has always had the ability to control freedom of movement just like all EU countries, more so in fact as it is the only member state with border controls. The fact is it that it failed to pass laws controlling freedom of movement, most other EU countries have laws which regulate the "freedom of movement".
21
With apologies to a wise prime minister, it seems Britain always does the right thing, after having exhausted every other option.
15
@M.Very true but unfortunately he was specifically targeting the USA, however happy to apply it the UK in this case!
@Michael Kaldezar I know--but as a Yank I couldn't resist tossing it back!
The British parliament and the British people want to keep all the advantages of being members of the EU for the last 45 years.....
And they want to get rid of the disadvantages and the irritations of being a member over the last 45 years.
They can't have it both ways....sorry.
Or am I missing something here?
58
The E.U. should say, "sure, we'll give you an extension, if you agree to hold another referendum..."
13
"To live is also to think again." A lovely turn of phrase; let it be the truth.
53
Since the two-state solution is repeatedly touted as the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict why not implement it here? Let Great Britain be divided into two states - one consisting of Brexit fans and the other consisting of those who want to remain part of Europe. The Brexit state will be called the UK and the other state will be called the EUK.
3
@Jay Orchard: otherwise a good idea, but they'd have to change the name: "UK" stands for "United Kingdom."
Sometimes I wish we could do the same in the US: divide the country between those who want to live in the 21st century and those who want to regress to the 19th, preferably to the time before 1860.
26
@Ellen Valle
You're right Ellen. Instead of UK the Brexit state should just be called Britain (which will not be so great anymore).
2
Brexit makes no sense whatsoever, except to make Britain a vassal state of global plutocracy (which wants to go on with the advantages Britain provided it with, like tax havens)... and a vassal state of the European UNION. I put UNION in capital letters, because contrarily to Pluto propaganda, the EU is not just a "bloc" or a "club".
The EU is an Union, as its name indicates. Yes, a superstate, with a Supreme Court, and a Parliament, among many other institutions. And no, "Brussels" and its European Commission don't rule: they mostly execute the decisions of the European Council constituted of the elected heads of the EU nation-states (or their foreign ministers for minor decisions).
I used to look down on Theresa May. Now I recognize her genius. She made it so that Brexit became impossible, as she worked apparently very hard to make it happen. Her "deal" was a joke, as it said there would be a default to a Custom Union if the Irish border couldn't stay open... European negotiators "couldn't believe the British government signed this". It means that may is not the only one Remainer playing the role of Brexiteer...
At this point the last Brexiteer of significant power is Macron, the French president. He is the one who insisted on the early deadline date (the other 26 countries wanted to give the UK a year). As Macron said he didn't want to force the UK into adhesion to the EU...
Macron would prefer the UK inside a Custom Union, taking orders as Norway, Switzerland, do.
5
Theresa May has become the Mother of Drag-ons. Perhaps the real problem is not Brexit but that Britain has become a society hopelessly divided. Not as in the past by heredity but by wealth and education on one side and industrial collapse and poor education on the other. The old aristocracy had a sense of "noblesse oblige". Does anyone see that in the new? Things are bad in many parts of Britain and the EU is an easy scapegoat. So what's the way forward? A hard Brexit seems gone. Some kind of customs union? Surely the worst of all worlds; Britain obeying EU rules without any say in their making. Another referendum? A stay vote gets over one problem but brings another. It is likely that both Conservatives and Labour would fracture and re-form as a leave and a stay party. This thing may make The Hundred Years war look brief.
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The British by-and-large are a practical folk. “Just bloody stay and we’ll move on to other things,” Ferrari said. “Enough is enough.” And he's right. And Mr Cohen is right too and that's what they'll do.
What fascinates me is how the political commentariat has kept maligning Ms May for doing -- steadfastly and bravely -- what was, since the PMship was dumped on her, the only course of action that would
1 do what had to be done for the benefit of the UK
and
2 achieve what had been her (wise) choice all along
i.e. Remain.
I think the EU leadership has learned a lot from Ms May's via crucis. Discretely, they have helped her by taking good decisions at the (supposedly) last possible moment.
I hope the lessons learned will lead to structural changes that will strengthen the EU.
5
Unfortunately for GB, the damage has been done. It matters little what they decide to do now. They've lost their reputation as a stable access to the EU for international corporations (and their accompanying jobs) These companies have already made plans to move to the continent.
It'll take a generation for GB to recover shooting themselves in the foot (or is that in the head?)
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You will be surprised. 2 years from now it will be as if this had never happened.
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@jhineDo you know London....? a staggeringly modern young lively high tech world centre...American tourists must return home shaking their heads in bewilderment..how do they do it....where do they get the money from..?
Do you know Frankfurt....? Three good restaurants and all the shops except Turkish takeaways close on Sundays....
The reply here from ^Susan^ is absolutely correct
@Susan I don't know Americans are not the smartest people. They are easily scammed. Now there's a social security telephone con that's exactly like the IRS telephone con everyone has been warned about and people are still losing thousands of dollars. The U.S. public is a big dumb animal.
Beautifully written piece.
My only concern is that I believe this is a columnist who mixes his opinions and preferences (usually clearly identified as such) with predictions and "reporting."
The end product often leaves an astute observer wondering how much is accurate and how much is "this is how I hope things turn out."
This is VERY MUCH in evidence here. He's made no secret of his sense that Brexit was a bad idea from the get-go.
But a couple of people - including a very 2nd rate media figure - "changing their minds" is too easy to over-rate.
In a democracy - Mr. Cohen knows this, but he waffles - you cannot get all that far by thinking and saying, "But those who voted differently from the way I did/would have... were ill-informed.... Surely, if they knew what I knew, they would have voted as I did."
Obviously, we have that in our country, too, and just as the "talking heads" I most respect are already wondering if the 2-headed creature we call the Democratic Party will (at least) head in the same direction in 2020.
It's easy to imagine folks well to the right or left of whatever emerges as "centrist" to all-but-advise people to split their ticket (WV & similar) or to not work that hard for the Dem. Pres. nominee if s/he turns out to be "Clintonesque," still a real possibility.
Similarly, as odd as it is for Brexit to ally unemployed workers with the likes of Boris, I'm not sure that one's the limit on that. Fuzzy thinkers grasp at straws like "No means No."
2
This is exactly what always happens when a decision is made with no prior thought on the impact of such a decision.
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@Mike
Very like electing Trump as POTUS.
2
Before undoing something like the EU, its members, especially one as important as the UK, should reflect on why it came into being and whether the reasons have changed. They have not -- if anything, they are more compelling now than 50 years ago.
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Unlike the citizens of Great Britain who have learned a harsh lesson about not thinking things through, supporters of Trump remain short-sighted and cannot see the problems that he has created and continues to create (mainly due to prejudice and the inability to tell the truth). At least GB has smelled the coffee and now is fully awake! I'm afraid we still have a lot of people still drinking the Kool-Aid...
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@Doober - Agree with you about Trump and his followers, but I think it's too early to tell for sure if "GB has smelled the coffee and now is fully awake!" Right now they seem to be shaking their heads and trying to wake up enough to figure out what to do next.
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@Doober
When the recommended daily is a minimum two large jugs it should not be a mystery as to the current fever dream the Personality cult of Individual 1, resides in.
"You can hoodwink people — but not if you give them three years to reflect on how they were hoodwinked before doing the deed the hoodwinking was about."
Were I British, I'd be really angry. First they lie about what Brexit means, then May who didn't want it digs in her heels and tries to keep forcing that square peg in the round hole (for the sake of democracy!), then the people wise up and realize they've been shafted.
They need to hold a second referendum based on truth not lies. They need to be told over and over how Russia helped sell them a bill of goods, and why.
Nothing less than the chance for a second, more educated vote can help Britian get out of the mess they're in.
They have seen the future with Brexit and without it. Give this major decision another vote. Given that, I don't have any doubt which way it will go.
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How many times I have said to myself, Our Trumpian era has encouraged even more of an un-United States. But Roger's description of a "disunited kingdom" perhaps is more imminent and ominous when the two nations are juxtaposed with each other. Scotland, Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, May/England, Parliament ...getting these factions together is like herding cats. And it could have been prevented. What I do not understand is why the Brexit philosophy was not more thoroughly analyzed before the referendum. This is not typical of our older "sister" and its former stability. So much is at risk if by some sick miracle this desire for separation becomes a reality. Just looking at Ireland alone, is there anyone of us who forgot the violence there before the Good Friday peace agreement? It was close to barbaric. Frankly, my thoughts from "across the pond" are that there should be a second referendum now and to shelve a seemingly impossible compromise. And how fitting re the news of this week that a Black Hole metaphor is used in this essay. Let us hope, however, that it relates to Brexit rather than the people and democracy of Great Britain.
19
Whether Britain remains or leaves the EU, if Parliament decides the matter without a people's vote, nearly half the country will be left convinced that they were cheated and that the end result was a "stitch up." That result would poison British politics for years to come. If most of the losing side can be convinced that they lost fair-and-square, rather than because the refereeing was fixed, whoever wins the next general election will find their job a lot easier. I haven't read or heard about any method other than a referendum or "people's vote," that has a chance to achieve some kind of closure.
14
@writeon1
My understanding is that the remainers and leavers are still relatively close in numbers (55% to 45%?) so that whichever side loses will feel cheated. This will poison the well of British politics for decades to come.
4
Indeed. Hopefully, Britain will figure
out how to ditch Brexit, and then next
year we will figure out how to ditch Trump.
One deal makes about as much sense as the other.
167
@Barnegat Leight,
No.
Britain's ditching the EU doesn't make sense.
Yes.
The United States' ditching Trump makes a great deal of sense.
11
@Harold
Read the comment again - it was about Britain ditching Brexit, not the EU.
14
@Harold
To 'ditch Brexit'
is to stay in the EU.
3
The misbegotten nostalgia for an England that never truly was has been the fuel for a lot of the pro brexit voters. My family has pro and cons over in Northampton, a once industrial city known for shoes and other leather goods. My older cousins look to the past, their children and grandchildren face the future. I know it’s difficult to give up hardened ideas for many, but what the pro people fail to admit is the xenophobic hysteria that is engulfing them now is only deluding them. The Britain my parents left in the ‘50’s still had rationing, flats still shared bathrooms between tenants, and despite labours wins, life was still hard. Joining the then common market was the one hope . And it worked. Did it allow more Europeans in ? Sure, why not? Those new “brits” did the work ,in general, the more educated didn’t want anymore. The higher educational system in England in particular , up until recently, was not as amenable to working class students as here, and the “I’m alright Jack” attitude was more pervasive than I thought. My sister went over back in the late seventies as a college graduation present with our parents. Her degree was greeted with suspicion and sometimes outright scorn as being a “posh!” Now the working class is catching up and has to compete with Europeans who, while many don’t have advanced degrees, are large percentage do. We live in a global world unlike any era before. Facing that new world is hard, but not facing it is catastrophic.
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@Mary Nagle
A terrific post that offers a not so distant mirror to our own situation. It's time for the white working class here to understand we can't go backward just so its members can work at manufacturing and mining jobs that no longer exist. They need to retrain, reeducate and reinvent themselves and open their minds and hearts to immigrants, who enrich our society, just their ancestors once came here to enrich this country. -- thegamesmenplay.com
92
And we thought it was only Americans who vote against their own best interests.
185
Brexit will be painful but finding a way out of Brexit will be of lesser pain.
Humans go to great length to avoid pain.
Hence the decision paralysis between leave and remain.
But the pain of no decision has been rising.
When it exceeds the remain pain, parliament will vote for either a super-soft Brexit or dump the dumb idea.
This point has been reached.
10
Bravo! Well done Mr. Cohen. Now only if the British stop this nonsense.
23
"You can hoodwink people — but not if you give them three years to reflect on how they were hoodwinked before doing the deed the hoodwinking was about."
Is three years the standard length of time for an electorate to come to terms with being hoodwinked? I hope so.
If enough hoodwinked Brexiters are finally coming to their senses after three years, perhaps there is hope for some of our homegrown hoodwinked Trumpists to see the light before 2020.
Britain can vote to remain in the E.U. and America can vote to remain a sane democracy.
Then both countries can sign a bilateral agreement to never speak of the madness of 2016-2019 again.
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@LT
This simple analysis couldn't be more spot on, madness indeed.
11
@LT The rest of the planet will remind you from time to time. The senior democracies acting mad dog crazy isn't good for anybody on this planet.
10
@LT
It seems that media reports notwithstanding, trump-ism is creating its own black hole. As Donnie moves ahead with his purges and nutty self-serving rallies, the conned base is getting more fervent but, at the same time he's shaking off bits and pieces of the broader population, Even a bit of the Groping Oligarch's Party is moving away from White House policy edicts, but not enough to make a significant legislative difference.
However, come election time, the emperor may not have enough clothing to deceive any but the most readily deceived fans. It might be a very surprising election. Lets hope the Democratic party doesn't blow it.
20
A very good summary.
A reminder of the Mercers investment in the lying would be helpful in this context. Through SQL and Cambridge Analitica they used targeted social media to tell lies, spread racism and fear of others. then went on with the same process to support trumps 2016 campaign.
2020 the far right funders are ready to go.
146
Politicians determined to effect the will of the minority of citizens (and it has been the minority, per every published poll for two full years) despite overwhelming evidence of the damage it will do to their country's economy. Sounds familiar?
83