I just returned from Jordan. Many of those men (I rarely saw any Jordanian women) who are employed, are part of the intelligence apparatus. I was told this by a U.N. Official whom I met after I fired my A & K tour guide for obscene language directed at foreign women, including myself. I was kept from leaving the country for days in retaliation for firing the guide, an intelligence officer.
Petra, one of the great archeological sites in the world, had young boys scattered over the hours long trek selling beads, sand paintings and taking orders from much older men. They were not in school. Some were Bedouin, but others had been brought from Egypt to work in factories and hotels. This is called child abuse and human trafficking. Armed guards and check points were everywhere and so were Russian tourists. My guide told me “we like Putin”; this while the Trump Administration threatened to pull troops from Syria and spouted support for MBS. The threat of ISIS was voiced by everyone. My driver was Palestinian and thus he, his wife and sons (who were born in Jordan) had no right to citizenship. It is impossible to “get ahead” because the cost of training, to buy a car to use in a business or the interest on loans are prohibitive. So is housing.
If you travel with a conscience at all, all of this was intolerable. I saw tourists glibly getting on camels to fill their Instagram accounts with “the Exotic,” ignoring the inequities all around them.
27
I work for a high tech semiconductor manufacturer here in the US and over the years I have seen a real growth in sales of our chips (which are the engine which drive most smart devices) throughout the world. The exceptions are Africa (except for South Africa) and the middle-east (except Israel). Countries with a dominant Muslim population in the middle-east and Africa are probably falling behind the most.
It is time to put down the gun and pick up the pen (or computer). Without education and technology the rest of the world will soon surpass these nations by a huge margin. Lizard juice use will begin to fall dramatically. The only cars manufactured by developed nations may be Electric Vehicles, in a decade or two. Time for the leaders in these nations to wake up and smell the humus. Otherwise there is going to be a lot of pain to come. You know what they say, an idle mind is a devil's workshop.
9
@Theni
Right on the mark! But the problem is not a dearth of minds, rather it is a failing system along with a lack of vision at the national level. Smart, educated Arabs are leaving their homelands, and they make Europe and North America the reciepients of their skills and talents. See Arab physicians in public hospitals in France or in the American Midwest, or Arab engineers in the German car industry and in Silicon Valley.
The ecosystem is simply not growing in Arab countries. Officially encouraging high-tech start-ups for example is one thing, reality is that young Arab entrepeneurs have to struggle with mind-boggling red tape, a police state, and under the table deals to get access to basic resources such as electricity or the Internet.
8
I saw two Jordan’s when I was filming there in 2012; Amman and the rest of the country. Compare Jordan with Israel, just inches apart, and it’s two different worlds. Israel is truly a land of “Milk & Honey” while Jordan is a desert of hopelessness. Why? Because most Jordanians see Tourists and Reality; Two different worlds within their own country. The Internet proves it to them. This is what happens when your country is ruled by Royalty and a religious philosophy embedded in despair.
Prior to the Internet, most Arabs, except in the larger Metropolitan areas, were pretty much stuck with the philosophy of their families dating back hundreds of years. Wherever you drive in Jordan you’ll see Posters of King Abdullah ll dressed in Military gear waving to you as you pass by. Fewer and fewer Jordanians are waving back today.
12
@Eric Cosh Since 1985, the United States has provided nearly US$3 billion in grants annually to Israel, with Israel being the largest annual recipient of American aid from 1976 to 2004 and the largest cumulative recipient of aid ($121 billion, not inflation-adjusted) since World War II.
I wager Jordan (and any other nation) would be a "land of milk and honey" if it received such committed unwavering largess from our taxpayers.
12
@Confucius
Israel's GDP is projected to be $362 billion in 2019. If you think that Jordan would be anywhere near that level if it had the same or a similar amount of US aid, you are wrong.
7
So we have another trickle-downer pushing Condoleezza Rice's "Mid-East Growing Pains Theory"while expanding endless wars? The more things change...
1
Where women are empowered and educated they have fewer babies. It's as simple as that but it's going to take a long time before women are empowered, educated, and equal to men both in the Arab Middle East and among the Haredi in Israel. Isn't that the pits?
4
This is an exceptional article with excellent first hand reporting--what we are paying the nytimes for.
No ambassadors anywhere. I guess this means the Deputy Chief of Missions, the ones who didn't resign because we have an active KKKer as President, are running the embassies. To help, we might leverage food aid somehow to promote jobs in Jordan. Supposedly we have been doing this all along to promote democracy. The major problem now is how to leverage social media to promote democracy, i.e. it could be a source of direct democracy rather than a stimulus for unrest. The EU has experimented with this, but not enough. (It might have helped the UK with Brexit, but the main problem there is that the Brexit supporters have been lying--and still are. The science community almost to a man has been opposed to Brexit, and for good reason. (see article in Nature))
The paragraph in parentheses on China and autocrats deserves more coverage, maybe even a whole book. The West would do well to celebrate a Tienanmen Square day. Our problem is Trump and his Republicans are trying to suppress Democracy here, which makes it difficult for us to lead. On climate change, civilization hangs in the balance on that leadership. And we are just as bad as China in allowing the export/use of coal.
In Jordan, going from 20% renewables to 40% rapidly might produce those jobs.
1
What about the role of Global Warming in the Middle East?
7
An artificial boundary here, a temporary alliance there, an old fight recast, a tribe renamed. The more things change, the more they stay the same. While quantitative changes are significant, nonetheless relatively little has fundamentally changed in the century since T.E. Lawrence described the region in "The Seven Pillars of Wisdom."
Friedman's most significant observation: "It is increasingly obvious that social networks and cyber tools are making efficient autocrats, like China, even more efficient. But they seem to be making soft authoritarians, like Jordan, more fragile, and they are making Western democracies increasingly ungovernable."
Friedman may be late to the realization that the internet is at least as much threat as savior, but he is coming around. I would now like to see from him an analysis of how he has evolved, the why and the how, as well as his thoughts on a politically doable, not a morally self-congratulatory, way forward. It is not that he is necessary to the discussion, but as a thoughtful and potentially self-reflective person he has the opportunity to add a bit of light, as we seek a way to at least harness the genie that we will never be able to put back in the bottle.
Friedman will have to go one step further before his thoughts might prove usefully perceptive and relevant. He has to understand that most people will, when offered the opportunity, avail themselves of the novel, the convenient, the popular, and the well-marketed "indispensable."
3
Why does King Abdullah sound so detached from the plight of his 300,000 unemployed Jordanian's? He is, as a living descendant of Muhammad, the absolute ruler of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The buck should stop with him!
Maybe instead of running to the Pentagon for help, he should concern himself with why, after two decades of under his rule, Jordan has created a society that cannot meet the basic needs and expectations of its young citizens.
This detachment is exactly what is wrong with the Middle East. Leaders like Abdulla and MBS sleep comfortably at night knowing their powerful Uncle Sam, will protect them from the judgments of their mobs.
2
Maybe, or maybe the more immediate model is living like crazy rich Qataris.
2
Thank you for these insights, Mr. Friedman. They remind me of one of my last delivered papers at Princess Sumaya University of Technoligy in Amman. First, I was totally charmed by the gentle graciousness of the host Jordanians.
More importantly, The opening keynote was delivered by University founder Princess Sumaya bint Hassan, a young vibrantly articulate representative not only of an equally vibrant institution but also of the royal family.
I expected empty verbal propaganda from her. I was astonished, however, by the depth of her extemporaneously expressed grasp of the technological issues confronting her nation and the measures under development to address them.
Without notes, she spoke with deep knowledge, insight, compassion and perspective about the policy and scholarly facets of MY field, not to mention hers. At the end of my career, I don't recall ever having been so impressed by a single presentation.
I am confident that Princess Sumaya continues to work effectively to get things done for the good of her country. The Middle East needs more of her.
2
Using "men...[holding] a girl's hand" as metaphor for sexual intercourse or similar is grotesque.
If Friedman meant it literally -- as adult males holding a girl's hand -- then he either is incorrect (fathers may in fact hold their daughters' hands) or he is asserting that allowing adult males to touch female children to whom they are not related would aid in quelling or avoiding national socio-political unrest.
This is why sexist, patronizing words to describe women should have no home in the texts published by the esteemed NYTimes (if it wants to remain esteemed) or elsewhere.
And a p.s.: Even if Friedman had referred to men "holding hands with" (wink, nod) women, how, exactly is having been able to "hold hands with" a woman a preventative against violent civil unrest/war ("a powder keg")? Note: Friedman used "or" not "and" in his assertion; he was not even saying that it is the combination of each of those factors that constitutes the danger, but each "never held" on its own. If the actions of ISIS, rebels in Syria, or every military on earth is any indication, having a history of holding a girl's hand does not significantly, if at all, decrease the risk of riots or worse.
2
The Times fails its readers by never providing any information about the West Bank. Why is the President of the Palestinian Authority still in office 12 years after his term expired? How will his successor be chosen? Who are the potential rivals? Will there be elections? Is there a functioning legislature? Judiciary? Is there freedom of assembly? Is the internet censored? Is there a secular opposition? Who is the Prime Minister?
5
Oh, and you forgot to ask about freedom of religion and religious practice. Other than a few thousand Christians, how many non-Muslims (even non-Sunni Muslims) do you think live, let alone openly practice their religion, in Gaza or the West Bank? Aside from most (all?) of the people living in Israeli settlements in the West Bank, how many Jewish people reside and practice Judaism in either Palestinian territory? Is there even a working synagogue there at which Jewish journalists, tourists, diplomats, aid workers, or pro-Palestinian protesters can safely gather and engage in Jewish ritual? How many Baha'i people and temples? How many Buddhists? How many Hindus or Sikhs or Zoroastrians or Wiccans? How many openly atheists?
4
Same questions about Gaza and their Hamas "government" though with them we know who their internal rivals are -- just check the graveyards.
4
Wait a minute. I thought that Jared was going to fix all that. He seems to prefer the Saudi Arabia model, you know the one that jails women for driving, kills journalists, imprisons anyone they want at anytime they want and tortures them, etc.
If you want to make change in the Middle East, free the women!!
3
And the problem is? Overpopulation!
3
And here I thought (NOT!) that the problem was, as Friedman partly framed it, men having to postpone engaging in the procreative act (or even holding a "girl's" hand).
2
Friedman is usually egregiously wrong about the Middle East -- he promised us that overthrowing Saddam would transform Iraq into some kind of Arab West Germany -- but he's right on this. "Meanwhile, it’s hard for men to marry without a job. Having lots of men who have never held power, held a job or held a girl’s hand is a prescription for social unrest — especially when they’re all on Twitter." A surplus of sexually frustrated young men who can't afford to marry and form households is not a recipe for political stability. He could have added that, per the statistics in the CIA World Factbook, the population curves in the Arab countries skew very young.
2
We are still waiting on Thomas Friedman to apologize for supporting G.W. Bush's invasion of Iraq and declaring that it would unleash a wave of democracy across the Middle East.
How's that working for you?
You inability to admit wrong on the biggest foreign policy blunder of the last 100 years makes it difficult to take you seriously.
7
The Middle East needs to rethink their aliances and move closer to China. Trump has been a real circuit breaker, now’s the time to jump!
America just wants to sell them weapons and keep them where they are, stiring the pot, selling what the foreigners are pumping out, and buying more weapons.
When the West moved in, they were bad teachers, and the Middle East just never caught up. Chinese industriousness is what the Middle East needs to emulate. They can save themselves.
2
The elephant in the room/closet skeleton with regard to Jordan is that the vast majority of those 300,000 unemployed are actually Palestinian, since Jordan did not exist before Great Britain carved it out of about 80% of the territory of historic Palestine in 1923 (excluding all Jews from that carved-out territory in the process), and imported Abdullah's Hashemite grandfather from the Arabian peninsula to rule the new Emirate as the first Jordanian king.
This to me is the greatest irony of the Israel/Palestine conflict: A "Palestinian state" was actually created a quarter of a century before the establishment of the State of Israel. From a historical perspective, therefore, the "two-state solution" in reality is, and always has been, a "three-state solution.
20
@PhilipC
You do understand you are oversimplifying a very complex problem. By that measure you can throw in the same argument about several African or Asian countries. The long hand of Empire has left in its wake communities forced together for national and international convenience (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are a good place to start).
Modern politicians MUST deal with the situation as it exists today or real solutions will never be found to address the plight of millions.
6
India? Really Frederick? The civilization based around the Indus Valley, extant for five thousand years? As old as the Chinese, Babylonian, and Egyptian ones? The birthplace of Hinduism, Buddhism, and Jainism?
The subcontinent needed to be partitioned because of the Muslims, who arrived as invaders far away from their origins on the Arabian peninsula. Ditto for northern Africa, Turkey, and much of southern Asia.
Do you see a theme there?
3
What about if a boy wants to hold a boy's hand, and never has?
3
Exactly.
1
Don’t look to the US to throw more money at solving problems in the Middle East. Americans are finally coming to terms with a President in the White House who only governs for The Haters, maybe the .O5% of the population. The other 99.5% either can’t figure out how to get rid of him any time soon, or are waiting until he needs to be lassoed out and put in a straight jacket. After the past weekend, that point may be coming soon.
1
So why is it the only thing from your article I will remember is the 'one state' policy of the Trump/Netenyahu administration? Why is that the only thing that most Jordanians and Kuwaitis, and Saudis and Egyptians can agree is bad. Why does the 'one state' policy look like a lighting rod sticking out of the sand looking for a storm. Most negative comments need five positive ones to counter act it, The 'one state' policy needs a lot more positives than you provided.
5
@Jasr
The settlements, however problematic they may be, have little or nothing to do with whether or not bright, young Palestinians are able to build a tech "start-up" along the west bank of the Jordan River. Unless, that is, if they abandon their entrepreneurial calling and instead take up the call to violence against Israelis or members of opposing political groups within the PA.
2
The Middle East is too old for monarchy and too young for democracy.
1
Jordan is majority Palestinian. Once it becomes a democracy, it will become essentially a Palestinian state. Then,like Iraq, it could link with Iran. In such a possible, or even likely scenario, wouldn't it be suicidal for Israel to ever contemplate the so-called two-state (West Bank) solution. Such an outcome would be nothing less than Greater Palestine, with Iran poised in the suburbs of Tel Aviv. In fact, this has PLO strategy -- in one form or another -- since 1974. The idea of a West Bank Palestinian state has now (since the first Arab Spring) become an anachronism. Even the Labor Party would not agree to such insanity, that is, if the Left could ever win an Israeli election. Trump is correct, it is time to rethink the peace paradigm.
1
Friedman states that the middle east didn't turn out like the neo cons like himself thought. Because they didn't really think. They pushed for war in Iraq and numerous attempts to destabilize numerous countries, backing dictators over true reform. their support of Israel instead of a search for justice caused countless problems. Their policies have made the refugee crisis at a breaking point for the world. Their arrogance is appalling.
1
The last thing they need to do is go down the failed western route of flogging off their public infrastructure to the private sector.
That road leads to massive inequality, massive debt, exploitation, working poor and as we're seeing the rise in authoritarians.
SO MUCH LOST
In the beginning the word made man
Keening for Eden where it all began -
Bargain a son for a better life
But bleed the ram in sacrifice.
Forsaking hunts and herds and skins
For riverside cities where science begins
Growing corn to the water’s edge
Finding a founder in rush and sedge
Tablets and marks in mud as token
Pictures to sign where words are broken
Back from the desert the prophet utters
What scribes from Byblos seal in letters.
All revealed and then recorded
The covenant that God awarded
All concealed and then discarded
It only heals the broken-hearted.
So many cities but so much lost
So many pyres where books are tossed
So empires rise and empires fall
Divine the writing on the wall.
So many cities but so much lost
So many pyres where books are tossed
So empires rise and empires fall
Writing must weigh and measure all.
"...For starters, there was always a deep U.S. involvement in shaping the future of this region."
Does that explain the great good shape the Middle East is in?
3
There is an op-Ed piece today in the Times about how the U.S.needs to build more tanks for our national security.Many to be sold to Middle Eastern countries. Yes let’s arm them to the hilt and let them duke it out. With a foreign policy like this,pray for the common people of these countries.
Thank you Mr. Friedman,
No ambassador in Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan or Saudi Arabia.
How can this be? Why are there no headlines on this?
31
@William VanDame Russia, which I'm sure has ambassadors to those countries, is probably quite happy at our lack of representation.
4
The level of human development in the ME is abysmal. A huge, under educated, under employed population, sitting on some of the worst land in the world. And plagued by the recent history of socialism. And currently plagued by corruption culture. And no current or recent accomplishments in anything that matters, be it science or art or commerce. To say nothing of the ethnic and religious tensions below the surface in many Arab countries. I don't see much hope.
4
@William, the biggest plague is the lure of violence. These young minds could be trained to be one highly productive but instead of education many are lured to extremism (Saudi wahabbism).
Paul Krugman has failed to mention another pillar – the demographic one. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) together have the world’s fastest growing populations.
In order to bring prosperity and stability to the region, sensible leaders are needed who can take bold actions to curb population growth and oversee a better distribution of resources.
Demographic growth is not necessarily a dividend if leaders do nothing to improve their citizens’ livelihoods.
There’s fear that Arab Spring 2.0 could be more violent, pitting autocratic powerholders, who will resort to brutality to defend their interests against protesters, who have nothing to lose.
4
Several years ago, Queen Noor was shopping for a $20 million dollar penthouse apartment in Tribeca. I know this because I worked for the architecture firm that designed the building. How does one justify such extravagance when one's own people are unemployed and going hungry? Such are the underlying currents of the Middle East.
25
@Par Excellence
Important comment, and true of super-rich (and even some almost-super-rich) in other places, as well.
Additionally, how do architecture firms and the people who work for them look at themselves in the mirror knowing that they are part of the problem -- using their knowledge and skills and connections and other resources to design and build huge, luxury apartment buildings or mansions in or near areas where thousands and sometimes millions of fellow human beings can barely afford rent on even a tiny studio or are homeless?
15
@ETHICS
Agreed. Well said.
2
Sure, economic development, especially in the private sector, is one approach to move Arab countries away from dismal stagnation. But the two other factors that must be tackled (from North Africa to the Near East) are overdue political reforms and endemic corruption.
Not mentioning the Western countries responsibility in the sorry state of affairs of Arab nations. Whether it is because of the fossile fuel business or huge arms deals: the so-called stability of autocratic regimes too often trumps true democratic changes.
6
We have endemic corruption right here in the US and you can hop on a train to the center of it real fast. Trump’s need to call attention to himself is bigger than the Middle East. It’s a real game changer for him and all his NYC hangers-on, associates, befrienders and fixers.
Of course the US has "always" had an interest in the Middle East. That's why in the 60's Israel's military bought from fine American companies like Dassault and Fabrique National.
America got involved when the Soviets looked like taking over in 1967. That got amplified by the old producers starting their embargo. Before that there were other fish to be fried. One wonders if there's any reason for the US to be cooking anything up there these days.
3
The two-state idea may be one of the worst imaginable, except for any of the alternatives. After all attempts to avoid it have been exhausted, that reality will eventually assert itself.
6
The formation of modern Israel was the worst idea imaginable. It was a desperate act of colonialism in colonialism's twilight that created Israel. The West was losing control over the Middle-East; having a friendly eye on the region was important. The atrocities of WW2 made the claim of compassionate action an easy sell. The state of Israel hadn't been a sovereign entity since the Babylonian Exile. If we want to be generous we could say it had a very brief period of sovereignty after that (though it was a vassal state) until Alexander with his Greek and Macedonian army took the region. Then came the Romans, etc. I understand the desire to provide a safe haven for a people who were harmed for millenia, but it was folly to resurrect a nation dead for 2,200 years, and coerce he displace people who have roots there to achieve it. The Native Americans have more right to take back the US as it's only been a few hundred years and less in their case. Finally, how can a people be safe and secure when placed in the middle of groups that already despise them? If the West wanted to be safe we should have shouldered the responsibility and inconvenienced our own people. I can think of a couple of sparsely populated square states here in the US that wouldn't have created an ongoing international fiasco.
4
I noticed Friedman carefully put (parenthesis) around this paragraph:
(It is increasingly obvious that social networks and cyber tools are making efficient autocrats, like China, even more efficient. But they seem to be making soft authoritarians, like Jordan, more fragile, and they are making Western democracies increasingly ungovernable.)
It is as if he wasn't sure how to fit it into the scheme of his op-ed. An afterthought? To add fuel to anti-China sentiment in US? His ongoing crusade against "autocrats" & "authoritarians"? Is he still campaigning for more "Arab Spring" like democracy movement?
I would be surprised if Tom Friedman has not met or heard Dr. Zhang Weiwei in his frequent visits to China. On YouTube is a 2017 talk by the Fudan University professor at Berlin's Schiller Institute. He explained "the China Model". One point Zhang tried to explain is the West's obsession with the "Democracy" & "Autocracy" labels. Zhang stressed that in the China Model, it is not about "democracy or autocracy" but "good governance vs bad governance". As well, he consider China's government much closer in spirit to Lincoln: "of the people, by the people, for the people." Quite a contrast to what Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz famously observed: USA "is now of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1% ".
Zhang predicted in 2011 Arab-Spring will be followed by Arab-Winter, & a flood of Muslims refugees. That's insight and foresight. Suggest Friedman watch Zhang's 2017 talk.
1
Good article while recognizing the difficulties in the Middle East, the writer didn’t miss to point out that the Western democracies increasingly become ungovernable. Maybe we all should have sleepless nights not just the King of Jordan.
10
Climate change will only accelerate massive upheavals in the ME.
Since that region already has extremely high temperatures and desert conditions, the leaders should concentrate on converting at least part of their oil industries to solar energy and actually manufacturing solar panels.
Desalination plants should also be a huge priority.
If the leaders plan it correctly, there could be many new jobs and they could have their own Green New Deal.
Granting equal rights to women for power over their lives is the only way to move forward in the 21st century and to encourage family planning and birth control.
Yes, these are major upheavals and will encounter many headwinds.
However, the alternative is failed states and utter chaos.
The internet is global and people can see how other countries are run and give their people more freedom and opportunities.
You cannot put the genie back in the bottle nor should you want to.
17
The Middle East has too much drama in their politics. protests, revolutions and anti Israel sentiment do not make the Middle East a good place to invest and create new industries.
The only country in the region that is a good place to invest is Israel. Rather than hitch their economies to that rising star the other middle east countries want to boycott Israel. This is very stupid as all the countries in the middle east could benefit from Israel's growth if they would stop fighting them.
5
@Peter B
I have a good friend who is an information technology consultant. He has visited the West Bank several times, and found it well endowed with educated young Arabs anxious to form a technology hub in their region...possibly even as the economic engine for a nascent Palestinian state.
Too bad Israel is making it impossible by cynically encroaching on the West Bank. All the countries in the Middle East could benefit from Palestine's growth if Israel would stop taking their land and suppressing their rights.
18
@Jasr It would be interesting to know how Israel makes it "impossible" for a technology hub to form in the West Bank. It wouldn't take much land to get it going. How exactly does Israel do this? Exactly what would stop a group of talented, energetic techies from doing so?
2
@Jasr
--The Israeli Jews want security; Palestinians in the territories could give them that.
--The Palestinians want economic and social opportunities that Israel could make happen.
--Both people have to accept the justice they seek will never be perfect.
Arabs: accept the existence of Israel; stop spreading the poison of eliminationist anti-Semitism and renounce violence. Acknowledge the suffering of the Jews that led them to the necessary founding of a Jewish state.
Jews: acknowledge that the founding of Israel was a land grab that had negative consequences for those Arab Muslims who already inhabited the land. Remove all support for illegal settlements. Stop the policy of further isolating and impoverishing the Palestinian people. Acknowledge their suffering.
Jews and Arabs together: commit to a secure state of Israel and a viable state of Palestine. Create a supra-national governing body that has shared responsibility over regional environment, transport, climate issues, energy, waste processing, etc.
Become partners in spreading joy, not misery.
3
What will they drink? Climate change is burning up the region and lands beyond. As Israel desalinates it dumps the filtered salt brine back into the Mediterranean which increases the saltiness of that sea and may threaten fish. The Mediterranean only has 10% of the fish stock it had 120 years ago. Birth control is essential to the survival of the population of the region. The West must do it's share to alleviate climate change, too.
15
If these Arab countries are looking for an economic model upon which to develop their own economies, they should look no further than Israel where the high-tech, agricultural and other sectors are flourishing. Israel is also among the leaders in creating fresh water from de-salinization of sea water and extracting fresh water from the humidity in the air! Put aside any hatred for Israel, forget any two-state solution. It will just result in another failed Arab state. The best deal the Palestinians can have is to become participants in the Israeli economy. Their leadership in Hamas and the PLO has failed them miserably. The same energy wasted in hating Israel needs to be turned toward loving the success of Israel and agreeing to be a part of it.. unfortunately, there is too much vested interest among too many Palestinian leaders in fostering hatred.
13
Gee Friedman, all these worries and words about the ME's "Falling Pillars", yet no mention of Chickenhawk George's misadventures that kicked the bases out from under those "Pillars" and got them leaning precariously. As I recall, you were all-in on that Pre-emptive War of Choice.
16
March 20, 2019
As world leaders lead and then figure the best interest to advance. Just to witness the Brexit efforts currently seeking a path for the best future, so to the Middle Easterns are as well rigthlfully asking for divine bread and nourishing condiment to the affairs of natural state of leadership that know how to make things great, greater, and ever more so - erecting the social pillar of jobs, jobs, jobs, and health and indeed water, climate and just a nice lift were sons and daughters will never be drawn to seeking to affect the course of having the highest everything for all times .
1
I see Friedman is still writing these nonsensical columns in which he makes it sound as though a handful of tech startups can solve huge problems like blue collar unemployment and the assimilation of a vast number of refugees. Of course they can't. How many people are employed by Jordan's nascent tech industry? And how many Jordanians are qualified for such jobs even if there were plenty of them on offer? Friedman is not an economist but an economic tourist, gawking and gaping at whatever seems cool in the places he visits but with no clue about real solutions to the problems he reports.
Here's a clue: people with little education, in America and elsewhere, who've been displaced from other sectors of the economy are not going to have their (economic) lives turned around by employment in the tech sector, nor do many of them want such employment. They want the sort of work they feel comfortable doing and they want to make a decent living at it. When political leaders can't figure out how to arrange that, the result is: Trump.
14
More moonism and voodoo economics from Friedman. Does anyone actually know the level of smartphone/internet access penetration in the Middle East? Hiking and tourism and mobile games ain’t going to get it done.
5
The fact that there are virtually no United States ambassadors in the Middle East coupled with a Tweeting POTUS and white ethno-state extremists on YouTube and Facebook - screaming obscenities and wanting to feed immigrants into wood chippers - King Abdullah will not be able to do anything but let the pillars fall where they may.
The next HBO special series may as well be Game Of Thrones - Real Time
5
It looks like a race to succeed before who know what kind of chaos hits. Thanks for the reporting. It's fascinating. My bet: Jordan at least, will succeed.
1
Friedman is so right. This says it all: "The U.S. doesn’t even have ambassadors in Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan or Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. ambassador to Israel, a former Trump bankruptcy lawyer, is so enthralled with the right-wing Jewish settler movement that he is more a propagandist than a diplomat. Bye-bye American pie." Trump doesn't care about the Middle East because his foreign and domestic policy is all about him -- ME, ME, ME. And the unholy alliance between Trump, Kushner and MBS augurs nothing but trouble.
9
"The problem is that the hour is late. Political reform has been postponed too long and old cultural norms are still deeply rooted outside of Amman. As one Jordanian minister put it to me: “We have to do everything. We have to do it all right. And we have to do it fast.”"
Yes, Thomas! Someone must do something!! After all those interviews you mentioned in this piece, what do you recommend?
3
Why do all these articles and opinion pieces never include overpopulation as a contributing factor? It's a worldwide problem that seems to get short shrift.
13
Skipping 20th century is the greatest failure of islamic world.
in 21st century they will see what did they do wrong.
it is indeed very late.
3
As usual many problems and few solutions. The worst problem we have is a President who doesn't live in the 21st century. Instead, he lives in some fantastic fantasy of a past time. This is especially disconcerting because his knowledge of history and reality is out of touch with what is actually happening.
His consigliary (an impossible word to spell), Kushner and wife, only see oil money and, like their God Father, Golden Towers.
They are bereft of any history beyond what Jerrad learned in synagogue, which I understand is a history that began in 1948, forget everything that happened after the Middle East was rudely divided after WWI and Palestine was chopped up after WWII. The idea that oil is the only thing of importance in the Middle East and the prevailing religion is evil will never, ever resolve the issues the world is facing in the region.
Add to that the threat of Global Warming. It is real and causing massive destruction around the world, as shown in the film "Chasing Coral" and in many scientific publications.
The life of the Planet is currently in the hands of a cartel that cares little for science, the lives of people and what comes tomorrow. The desperately needed changes cannot come too soon.
5
Are we not now seeing the results of the seeds planted many years ago? After ww1 didn’t France and England carve up the Middle East to their liking? Did the Zionists not create Israel in such a manner that created the conflict of today. In the 1940s many in the U.S. state department did not want a Jewish only country and foresaw the present day turmoil. Did not the U.S. over throw an elected government in Iran and install the Shah and also interfere in elected governments in the Middle East at that time? We wanted oil do we coddled Saudi Arabia a major factor in 9/11. The egg has fallen and we don’t know how to put it back together.
19
@Vincent
The State Department Officers that did not want a Jewish state in the 1940's were often the same ones that did all they could to hinder Jewish immigration to the US, helping to make a Jewish state inevitable.
10
It is wrong to place all the blame on Jewish political zionists. Either for what has happened in the so-called Levant or, as too many people have tried to do, for all of the many ills in the Arab world.
2
@Vincent What elected governments are you talking about?
Today, in truth, the U.S. and Israel seem to be engaged in a search for the best one-state solution, meaning permanent Israeli security control over the West Bank and East Jerusalem, along with some form of deep Palestinian autonomy.
Is "deep Palestinian autonomy" another way to say bantustans?
7
After frantic searching, Tom has finally found a new middle east "hero" to canonize in King Abdullah of Jordan. His last effort in glamorizing and fawning over MBS didn't work out very well and he has still not apologized or admitted he was conned.
9
A brave new World
I wonder if Friedman has taken the time to consider how access to the internet is changing the Middle East. Children all over that theocratic, autocratic lands are growing up with the truth, a novel idea. No longer is the word of the teacher in school, or the droning on of leaders the final word. The truth is now out there. They are growing up with Google search and Youtube videos. They see their theocracy in contrast with democracies, they see their limited lives contrasted with the freedoms found in western democracies. The truth and choice is now out there and at their fingertips.
22
@Lonnie Maybe the Middle East autocracies will become clients for China's control techniques. That is probably not a bad bet.
5
@Lonnie
It is becoming increasingly clear that the internet is often most effective at reinforcing existing beliefs, rather than serving as a source of fact.
14
A real problem is that whenever political change occurs, fanatics (religious or otherwise) energize themselves to subvert the majority. Perhaps the Russian Revolution serves as a good example. What happened after the American Revolution is very much an oddity. Friedman expertly lists sources of turmoil in the Mideast region. It should be sobering to consider what faction might win a power grab should true political discord erupt.
2
How can Mr. Friedman honestly say, "... the new Middle East isn’t doomed to upheaval"? If the Jordanian minister has it right, then the least provocative country in the Middle East has to do everything, do it right and do it fast." Not even a king, not even the Almighty can do that.
2
Where there is a will, there is a way. Just look at the incredible success across the Pacific!
1
This opinion piece is not entirely about the Middle East but to a larger extent about Jordan. It’s nice to read that lowering of oil prices have brought in some minor positive changes in Jordan. However it’s a long long way to go as long as women are not provided with all the rights, which they richly deserve.
4
Sadly, the Middle East is a 'dead man walking'. Not too long ago, the area was a lightly populated, nomadic land. Then oil happened. Populations exploded, water use increased. They could not grow enough food and became importers. Then as oil wealth increased, their own internal oil use exploded, reducing oil exports .
Add in religious extremism, causing a drop in tourism and lack of western companies willing to expand there. The Mideast is a creation of a one time bonanza of finite oil, and will crash when the reservoirs eventually dry up. I don't see any workable solution other than to reduce the birthrate as quickly as possible.
19
@John Dyer, I strongly agree. I live here and try to help as much as I can. In the olden times, the Arabian Peninsula could probably support 3 million fishermen and nomads, most concentrated along the coasts. Today there are over 411 million people in the MENA area (the Middle East and North Africa), with 102 million in Egypt alone. Add to this the almost complete depletion of aquifers everywhere, the raising temperatures and living standards, and you have an ecological disaster in the making. Oh, and I forgot that there are almost no environment services here that can protect the MENA people from themselves. Sad, because people here are among the friendliest and kindest I ever met, and I have moved around.
19
"So, no, the new Middle East isn’t doomed to upheaval." Friedman, ever the optimist. Sadly I don't see it that way. The Middle East will either continue along slowly bleeding to death or there will be a rapid bloodletting as the masses rise to overthrow the autocrats. I favor the first scenario. The autocrats and the religious fanatics leave no other options
3
@John Locke
IMF gave these rules so much loans if Revolutions come they will be broke and again there will be a dictator. Like Egypt or other Countries. So I am not worry of any revolution.
@John Locke
In our nation of 320 million with so many unemployed and no healthcare, I hear and see protests against our plutocrats, our oligarchy that makes me think we will be having our own uprising. And it’s about time. Hopefully it doesn’t spawn a full blown civil war.
5
The societal problems that led to the 2011 Arab Spring haven't been solved at all and it will only be a matter of time until things will escalate again and this time perhaps turn even more violant. There will be no sustainable solution without some form of democracy and broad civic participation in the governing processes.
Unfortunately, most regimes in the Arab world are not willing to make any of those concessions which could lead to positive change. They are corrupt and self-serving including the Saudi regime that ultimately wants to make concessions only to the degree that it stabilizes their exploitative oligarchy. Also, the question remains whether Islam as a normative framework is really compatibel with democratic processes and structures. I doubt it and therefore, unless there is a process which leads to secularization of society I don't see any substantial progress towards democacy in the foreseeable future.
The fact that in almost all countries in this regionwe have no US ambassador in place shows how little the Trump administraion understands the explosive nature of the situation.
9
@W, If you read the history, Islam
has been democratic. Prophet
Mohammad, the founder, refused
to name a successor. He told the
community to choose the leader.
This tradition continued till the
strongmen subverted it by accumulating the power and creating dynastic rule.
This may seem quaint and of course no longer a possibility, (or is it), but before oil was discovered in the Middle East, before American and British Petroleum started overthrowing or buying off governments to control the oil and rake off all the profits and of course before Israel was plopped down in the middle of the mess, it seemed as though the Middle East was doing O.K. without our interference, actually if old books, newspapers and film are any guide it seems that much of the Middle Eadt was quite beautiful; I know it was a must on the itenerairy of world travelers in the early part of the twentieth century, before oil. So maybe Thomas if we left these folks to their own devices and that means ending the continual war in support of Israel, they might be allowed to once again flourish: as I said I realize this idea might seem quaint and of course won’t happen for the simple reason there is too much money to be made by multinationals and the defense industry to maintain the status quo and of course support for Israel and force will never end no matter that diplomacy, and that includes a two state solution, would it seem to be a better solution than the policy of continual aggression currently employed.
20
I was impressed by this balanced and largely positive article about Jordan. Social change in the U.S. where we have been privileged by a diverse economy, a geographically large area, a lack of war, and a largely free press is still challenging to grow and maintain. How much more challenging to grow in the Middle East. Education, employment, business opportunities, entrepreneurial problem solving, and more openness to social change are slowly taking hold in Jordan. I'm appalled that we have embassies nowhere but Israel and aren't helping more to grow Jordan and other Middle Eastern economies. I think that employment and hope anywhere changes the conversation from hate, oppression, despair, and destruction to more opportunity and respect for all.
11
@Dr. Conde
We certainly do not have a lack of war. Where have you been? We are in a constant state of war around the globe. We are a nation of military industrial complex. Please research and find a time when we have not been at war after WWII.
2
Friedman's point about the effect of the internet on, well really, human relations in general is so on target. In the "old days" information was not only flowing from the top down, it was filtered and, frankly, digestible.
The internet has given me and every American with a computer or smart phone the ability to express ourselves to the public. It has has also given birth to myriad users of it to spread hatred of one another, false information, and an ability of them act out violently.
Above all, the sheer volume of information, good and bad, makes it almost impossible to sort out what is useful and what isn't.
8
No need for widespread despair over the profound changes and falling pillars in the Middle East dynamic. Jared Kushner has everything under control. After all, "If he can't fix it, folks, nobody can."
8
The BIG elephant in the room, with reference to the petro-economies in the Mideast and elsewhere, is a green energy future. If we truly succeed in kicking our addiction to oil, what happens in those countries where oil is the only game in town?
8
@Mike Dyer
They will have to do what we here in the U.S. are going to be forced to do. Adapt. Evolution. Adapt to the changes or perish.
1
@Mike Dyer The Saudi's at least have reportedly been investing frantically around the world to stave off economic collapse when oil ceases to matter very much as a power play. Remember, before the automobile, oil was big business for industrial lubrication.
The mixture of description, accurate or not, at whatever levels and qualities, in lieu of helpful (attempts at) valid explanations, regarding selected people whose behaviors have been, and are, void of personal accountability + processes noted which are detached from reality's everpresent uncertainties, unpredictabilities, randomness, lack of a for-ever-TOTAL control, whatever the political system, enables wordy articles. Once read, then what? An additional "pillar" which may merit consideration is the anchored WE-THEY toxic processes and structures in each of these selected cultures and countries. They may/can give way, transmute, to new "actors." New-old stakeholders who re-"garb" in variations of WE-THEY. For another scene. Another act. Performance. Opening "sharp" at...Closing, sooner or later, dubiously with good as well as bad reviews. With larger or smaller audiences, hale as well as hurt, representing ranges of helpful-harmful "audience" activity-passivity. Complacency. Complicity. As we are "caveated" to pay attention to potential falling pillars, fostering and enabling menschlich interactions, a pillar of much-needed,equitable, menschlichkeit continue to BE pilloried. By so many ordinary folks. All over!
The real problem to solve is how to distribute housing, food, health care, and economic security to billions of people around the world whose labor is not needed to make things to sell. In that last 2000 years these things were afforded to those who made stuff. The world has too much stuff and couldn't possibly sustain even just a billion more people making stuff over their lifetimes. We already have the capacity to make all the stuff we need; the problem is how to distribute it equitably in a way that doesn't make those whose labor is needed resentful of those whose labor is not needed.
26
@Steve725 -- "The real problem to solve is how to distribute housing, food, health care, and economic security to billions of people around the world whose labor is not needed"
Who is to do the labor of providing all that new higher-standard housing, food, health care, and economic security? Ah, those people who are "not needed." It is called an economy. It isn't zero sum.
@Mark Thomason Excellent point, Mark! Economies are about so much more than just making things.. The U.S. is a prime example, where the service industry is every much or even more important than the high tech, information, energy, manufacturing, agricultural and other industrial sectors. The Middle East could be as successful as China, if it could only shed its old attitudes and embrace the world of today. I like to be optimistic in that regard..After all, look at what Israel has done on its small patch of desert Land!
1
Maybe the most depressing part of your excellent column Mr. Friedman was your noting that more than 2 years in, Donald Trump is content to have seven countries in the volatile Middle East not have United States ambassadors. And if you're thinking in response "Yeah, but we've got Jared covering that region", well, you're probably not reading the rest of the column.
Saddest of all though is the fact(and I think it could be proved) is that you express and illustrate more thoughts and analysis about the Middle East of today than the President of the United States has given any thought to in his reign as the leader of our country.
We all talk about our crumbling infrastructure thinking of bridges and airports and decaying city systems. But happening all the time, obscured by the Big Show from the White House, is that major Federal Government infrastructure is crumbling too. The State Dept. and the EPA are being purposely decimated by this President, not to mention other government agencies.
We've got problems here and abroad, thanks to you know who.
56
The message conveyed by Thomas Friedman about the Middle East is mostly bad. It tells the story of age-old physical problems like skimpy water resources and inadequate arable land to match growing populations.
Mr. Friedman also reports long-running, man-made problems like autocratic political structures which fail to address the needs of ordinary people. He reminds us of the cultural and religious impediments to allowing women full participation in addressing practical solutions to economic stasis and environmental degradation.
What is new is the failure of the United States even to attempt to help. America under Barack Obama and his predecessors made many mistakes, but they tried to be a moderating force to quell the worst impulses of tyrants and to foster some kind of consensus about heeding the daily needs of ordinary citizens in the Middle East.
America under Donald Trump not only does not try to help in the Middle East, we incite more unrest. Trump recklessly stokes distracting rivalries there in order to give him talking points in domestic American politics.
26
The U.S. doesn't have ambassadors in some countries (not just the Middle East) because there are a lot of unfilled positions in government under the Trump administration. Besides, Jared Kushner is a good friend of the Saudis and he is going to bring peace to the Mideast, isn't he?
10
Not to pop-your balloon or anything but... Most tech companies pay a relatively few employees very high wages. Their actual contribution to the overall labor market is both abysmal and deleterious. Tech startups certainly aren't going to stabilize the Middle East. In fact, tech consolidation in the United States is contributing to our relative instability in a big way. There's also the truism "you can't tech your way out of every problem." We would need to fingerprint eye retinas if there wasn't a need to fingerprint eyes.
What is the need exactly by the way? Call me a skeptic but I highly doubt the ultimate consumers of this technology are humanitarian workers on the Syrian border. Just saying.
9
FrIedman offers another piece on the continuing dysfunction of the Muslim Middle East, a dysfunction in which Israel plays no role beyond showing what its neighbors could achieve civilizationally if they stopped fighting each other - and Israel accomplished everything it has, leapfrogging much of Europe, while also having to defend itself.
Bemoaning the end of a "two state solution", as opposed to the "two states for two peoples" formulation the Arabs rejected long ago as inconsistent with their phased strategy for Israel's destruction, Friedman writes of a "one state solution" of "permanent Israeli security control over the West Bank and East Jerusalem, along with some form of deep Palestinian autonomy." Of course, this was Rabin's vision of the 1993 Oslo Accords. Friedman should read Bari Weiss' piece to understand why the vast majority of the Israeli electorate agrees once again with Rabin’s more modest vision. In the intervening period, the Palestinian Arabs have shown themselves disinterested in building a civil society prepared to live in peace next to Israel. The evidence stares you in the face, if you care to look at it: the orchestrated Arab violence that followed every Israeli peace offer, the Gaza withdrawal/Hamas takeover and the daily murderous antisemitism vomited out by Arab media throughout the region. Israelis have learned from bitter experience and have for the most part given up on excusing Palestinian Arab toxic behavior, has Friedman? It seems not.
18
Oh yes, the "new" Middle East is in fact doomed to upheaval. Poverty, climate change, religious and ethnic animosities, unemployment, snarky Saudi Arabia and Israel comfortable in hiding behind the US, all mean nothing good for Europe or America is going to happen anytime soon.
9
"Today, in truth, the U.S. and Israel seem to be engaged in a search for the best one-state solution, meaning permanent Israeli security control over the West Bank and East Jerusalem, along with some form of deep Palestinian autonomy"
Yeah, deep Palestinian autonomy...AKA, apartheid.
13
Perhaps if the US honored the Iran Deal and went a step further and normalized trade and relations with Iran there would be at least one Middle East country that could clearly stand on its own two feet. It is a country where women represent 60 percent of university students and participate in government and employment and raising families. It is a country that despite 40 years of abuse from America still shares the most in common with America than any other middle eastern country perhaps with the exception of Israel. Iran could be a standard bearer for a modern Middle East society but it is certain that Israel and the US don’t want that to happen and it is purely from Israel’s concern that the US will no longer be Israel’s lapdog if it had another viable economic partner in the Middle East.
24
@Cliff
Your bias overwhelms me. Israel needs friends, not enemies. If Iran were willing to disband their terrorist network (namely Hezbollah), Israel would be only too happy to embrace them, establishing trade and cultural exchange. But lest you forget, the good people of Iran are not the regime ruling over that country.
Mr.Friedman, you wrote a chilling report about MiddleEast . We do not know that USA does not have ambassadors in very important countries in the region. Why ? It is stupid. It is scary to know that Trump’s bankruptcy lawyer is the US ambassador and who is more of propaganda master for the right wing Israeli politician than an ambassador . It is stupid and unacceptable . The unemployment crisis over there may haunt us one day in near future. We can not close our eyes as if nothing is happening. Lot of these crisis are due to Iraq war. This unnecessary war gave birth to ISIS and other terrorist organizations. The big reason of unrest and unemployment is also largely due to Iraq war and US backed Saudi war in Yemen. USA must stop patronizing right wing politicians in Israel, military government in Egypt and Saudi king . We must stop backing Yemeni war where humanitarian crisis is in dangerous level. The repression and oppression in the ME must be stopped by the autocratic monarch and military rulers immediately and USA must push for that goal.
11
What is changing is that with a huge cash infusion, the Iranian government has paid for a wildly successful media campaign to whitewash their global and regional terrorism, to the extent that otherwise intelligent people are demanding that the Saudi government be neutered. Ignore the Iranian rockets flying into Israeli cities. Ignore the 7.62 mm "sewing machines" being flown into Somalia. Whitewash ethnic cleansing in Iraq. However, giving both sides of the Baby El Mandeb will allow,the Iranian regime to control the Red Sea and shipping into Europe. That will be catastrophic to the European economy.
2
Mr. Friedman, you never cease to sound bullish on Middle East. You cheered on George Bush to send troops to Iraq to usher democracy in the region. We know how that went. More recently, you started singing paeans about MBS and “took instructions” from him on how he is going to reform Saudi Arabia. And now you think Jordan is going to lead the region out of misery. Maybe you should take your rose tinted glasses off and look at the reality and acknowledge that this region is at least 200 years behind the West in development of economy and thought. All of us will be better off with a dose of reality.
16
If I were a Jordanian, I would be telling the Palestinians that their time is up and that if they want their own state, they should take the best offer they can get and move on. They need to let go of delusions like the right of return or that they will get all of Jerusalem. If they want to be stubborn and respond with terrorist attacks, they'd be sent packing.
With that problem solved, perhaps Jordan could even start working with Israel to jump start the region's economy. In any event, with a new crop of refugees to worry about from Syria and economic stress on the way, Jordan has other things to worry about.
7
Like so many of Friedman's opinion pieces it's all surface & no depth. He seems fond of parachuting into distant lands giving us breathless dispatches as though they are revealed truth. It's shocking how much this guy has been consistently wrong on the Middle East. Least we forget Friedman was an early & enthusiastic supporter of the Iraq war. Most recently he sang the praises of Saudi Arabia's MBS as a reformer who was later implicated in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. There is very little to support the assertion's he makes in this article. Take education for example. In a new evaluation of 1,000 universities worldwide Arab schools performed poorly. None were among the top 500 and most Arab countries did not make it to the list at all, including those previously known for quality education, such as Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria. Only 10 universities from four Arab countries made it to the list, albeit in very low positions. It is of course easy to explain how higher education suffered in countries struggling financially or going through difficult transitions or internal conflicts, but it is harder to explain in the case of rich but stable countries. The bottom line is that until the Middle East becomes more democratic we won't see the progress that Friedman claims is imminent. Arab countries that have no freedom of thought are preventing their universities from functioning as institutions of intellectual progress and research.
13
Why don't all the movers and shakers and editorial pundits understand that neither Israel nor the Palestinians want this long cherished "two state solution" imposed on them by foreign powers??? It's time to move on and acknowledge that the notion that the "two state solution" which was supposed to solve the impasse between Israel and he Palestinians is instead a miserable failure.
At least Tom Friedman is finally coming to grips with the hard reality of seeing his cherished notion that this idealistic idea of Arab Spring which was going to bring peace to an unstable region has turned into a miserable failure. Nothing is harder than seeing your dreams crash and burn big time.
3
A remarkably lame piece from someone who is usually better on the Middle East.The overview then linked to the specific case does not work.The author's tendency to go on and on about technology, start-ups etc etc is very congenial to the American mind but has nothing to do with the fundamental transformations in the region.
5
Thomas look at what's changed since Ehud Olmert made his last offer to a democratically elected Abbas.
First, Israel has had not just security from terror but relations with more Arab and Muslim countries than before. Second, the Palestinians have no leader with an elected mandate. Third, the Israeli economy has boomed with 4% growth per year and unemployment less than 5%. Finally, in every sphere-academics (4 scientific Nobel prizes), cultural (winning Eurovision), scientific (rocket to the moon), and technologic (Waze and hundreds of other start ups like it) Israel has excelled beyond anyone's wildest dreams.
This was accomplished not because Israel negotiated with the Palestinians but because Israel has NOT negotiated with the Palestinians. This is why the two-state solution is dead. Because it only brought terror and lack of security to Israel.
Friedman would like to blame it on Trump or Natanyahu but he was completely wrong about the Arab Spring and he is completely wrong now. It is not about this ambassador or this President, it is about the Palestinians refusal to accept Israel's right to exist, negotiating in bad faith, and establishing a society without due process and the protection of human rights.
Demographic scare tactics and occasional missiles don't change reality or what matters to Israeli voters. Friedman won't support a democratic process and instead blames one side because he no longer has credibility.
I'm no longer listening to you Tom.
5
@jkemp
And . . . this is exactly why Israel is headed toward imposing a permanent apartheid through formalizing its de facto annexation of the West Bank. Holding millions of people against their will is hard work Mr. Kemp.
What happens when the US get tired of paying off Egypt and Jordan not to attack Israel, Mr. Kemp?
1
Once Israel absorbs the West Bank, the unemployed Jordanians can relocate there and work for the booming Israel economy financed by American taxpayers.
Kushner, Friedman, and Trump understand the the New York City real estate market, a model for how to get unwelcome tenants out of their homes to redevelop a neighborhood.. First, offer money. Then harass. Then deny services. Then use the courts, until the tenants tire and move out.
5
"...in truth, the U.S. and Israel seem to be engaged in a search for the best one-state solution, meaning permanent Israeli security control over the West Bank and East Jerusalem, along with some form of deep Palestinian autonomy."
I cannot think of a more deceptive way to describe what is no "solution" at all (unless, of course, Friedman's only concern is a solution for Israel).
A more accurate statement, one that Friedman surely knows would be more accurate, is the following:
"...in truth, the U.S. and Israel seem to be engaged in an effort to preclude any meaningful form of Palestinian sovereignty, to abolish all Palestinian refugees' rights, and to incorporate all illegal settlements into Israel. Such a scheme would mean an expanded Israeli state that continues to deny Palestinians any form of equality or rights comparable to those enjoyed by Jewish Israelis. It would mean, in short, a Palestinian reservation system somewhere between Apartheid South Africa and the contemporary colonial U.S. system for indigenous peoples."
11
King Abdullah's work is impressive
and hopefully inspiring throughout
the Mideast.
2
Never mind the Middle East, I'm more worried of the pillars that are falling here in the USA. l think it was Lenin who said something to the effect 'the capitalist will sell the rope to hang himself' It seems to me the outsourcing of everything to China has had more far reaching effects than envisioned they are no longer only copying our innovations they now have and are using the knowledge and intellectual capacity to surpass us. It is time to sound the alarm. The pillars began falling here for a long time. Corporate governance , greed , ethics, lobbyists, corrupt officials... the institutions and checks and balances once instituted to protect the democracy have eroded. It's only a matter of time before something catastrophic occurs and then the period of introspection begins . Is the empire falling or has already fallen?
7
So, Jordan is saved! That leaves “little” spots of potential trouble: Egypt where oppression reigns galore, Saudi Arabia, (sow country), curiously not in the column, and now Algeria. The middle East, as we knew it for decades, will not be there shortly because of an imminent resurgence of the Arab Spring 2.0: watch Algeria. This time around, unfortunately, it may not be as peaceful as 2011. More than half the population of Arab countries is made up of youngesters less than 30 years old. They have no connection to dictatorial regimes that lie, oppress or kill opponents at will. This is why we will see a different ME, not the potential 100 million dollar projects in Jordan.
The only long term solution if those gulf monarchies want to survive is to follow Morocco example and become "Constitutional Monarchies". At least they will have politicians to blame when things go wrong.
The Middle East is doomed. 25 years from now when oil is history, what will they do?
These countries have spent more than $5 trillion in the last 30 years in weapons, to the benefit of foreign countries. While most regions of the world are forging economic and political blocks to face future challenges, in the Middle East they are still fighting a war about who is prophet Mohammed true heir.
The idea that a few Start Ups will save Jordan doesn't make any sense. Facebook, Google, Apple and other major Tech companies could not save America. For a region known for its insecurity, is a trail actually a good investment for a country like Jordan?
The Middle East was already doomed, add to that the threat of Climate change, the question now is how soon.
The Middle East as per the Holly books (Bible, Torah, Koran) is a region where lot of miracles happened in the past. The Middle East will need a lot of "economic, social miracles" to get out of the hole It digged Itself into.
4
Tribalism is the deadly ingredient that is easily manipulated by tyrants, like Duterte, and authoritarian leaders, like Trump. Tribalism is why Afghanistan is total failure, not only of the US, but their own leaders. If you can make one tribe suspicious of or hate the other tribes, you've got yourself some power. Look at many in Trump's tribal base. They ignore the facts under their own eyes and turn his lies into alternative facts. New technology is the new smoke signal system of old. The messages get out quickly, it is a matter of whether they are used to inform people to work together or to identify an enemy of the tribe. Tribes can come to terms, they can make changes to their own beliefs, but they need good leadership to follow. Right now there is a dearth of leadership around the world. Our own tribal chief is a corrupt instigator for violence against our brown skinned tribes. You cannot get good fruit from a rotten tree. Blue wave 2020!
3
The determinate of life is water. One need not be a scientist to know that. Look at all the pictures of the middle-east and you will see desert conditions. No trees and little vegetation. With global warming, these areas will become unlivable. The people here will be early casualities. Others will drown because the hot air holds so much water that rain produces floods. Die of thirst or drowning? Your choice!
1
Tom Let us see how we are helping your five pillars to crumble.
We support the Kings and Dictators who would do our dirty work case in point is Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and UAE. On the Horn of Africa and the Continent we would support any leader who is willing to work for us. We give them all the bribes necessary to keep them working for us.
It appears that our government (rightly so?) look out for our interest however short sighted it may be and ignore the masses of every country from Tunisia, Algeria to Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Bahrain.
Middle East is in a state of flux, thanks to our various ill-conceived short sighted adventurisms both by the Democratic as well as Republican administration and now by the Trump mal-administration. Post World War II we were fighting the Russians (Communism) in the Middle East, we used Turkey, Pakistan and Iran as the bulwark against the USSR, with the demise of the USSR and the Iranian Revolution we had no plan B to recover. We were mad that the Iranians had the audacity to remove a King that we put there after replacing a democratically elected Prime Minister.
Lebanon is another issue and it became worse by us letting the Massacre of Sabra and Shatila happen right under our noses.
The Afghan war and our assistance in developing the Salafi/Jihadi culture in Afghanistan/Pakistan with Saudi ideology/money created a Frankenstein monster, Taliban that we all are still suffering in different reincarnations.
4
It is difficult to see how small countries with few natural resources can deal with the massive population bubbles they have created. It sounds that their efforts to create pretend jobs have reached its limits. The citizens seem to lack the work ethic that allowed many Asian nations to rise. Unskilled labor is broadly useless at a distance. Seems a recipe for unmitigated disaster
2
All the more reason to distance ourselves completely from the Middle East's never-ending mess by becoming energy independent with our own Iron Dome, and by getting the likes of Jared, and his fellow far right Israeli supporters, out of our picture.
1
Another success of American diplomacy and non-colonialism!
Mr Friedman with his expertise should know that the PLO and Hamas do not want a state of their own unless Israel is destroyed completely, That is their goal and has been for a long time.
1
What a pleasure it is to read positive news from the Arab Middle East, though it appears to be localized to Jordan.
With the global dangers of climate change moving inexorably (for now) towards all of us on the planet, add another item, perhaps the biggest challenge, to the Jordanian's list of "everything" and "do it now."
21
“ social networks and cyber tools are making efficient autocrats,“
In the tradition of rock throwing so common in the Middle East, cyber tools, bots, and social media need to be seen as the dangers they are to democraies around the globe.
14
Abdullah and other Arab leaders need to do much more in increasing literacy/education and in encouraging small business.
They don't seem up to the task, and seem more interested in retaining control.
5
Friedman dances around the real point, presumably because he has been instructed to avoid it.
The actual source of the problems the MIddle East has, is Islamic education, which is focused on learning by rote and dominated by classes teaching religious philosophy and memorization.
It has produced an entire culture that is incapable of doing anything other than following the orders of autocratic leaders. Which is what it is intended to do.
All the work that requires deep knowledge and understanding - or hard physical activity - is done by foreigners.
Having spent more than twenty years living and working in Saudi Arabia, I can confidently state that the same people - lifted out of that insular quagmire at birth and raised to use Socratic reasoning and with a liberal western education - would be capable and productive people.
But that isn't going to happen and until such education systems become the norm everywhere in the MIddle East, the place has no chance. None.
44
@Objectivist
Just before the second world war, Germany was once of the best educated country in the world. At that time, many of the greatest classicists were German. Western Civilization at that time was centered in northwest Europe.
I too wish the world would include many of the elements of Western education, but I doubt that, by itself, training Saudis in the Western tradition would be of much help.
4
Maybe humanity has reached its limits.
Could be, future history will look at this time and mourn the turning, back from a time of democracy and hope, to the past of tribal wars, and Stone Age desperation.
The failure is in us, true enough, but it is a narrow failure, the inability to find a way to create and choose leaders of passion, courage, and humanity.
Hugh
5
The sixth pillar is environment. Global warming is already and will continue to impact the Middle East. What will happen when daily temperatures become unlivable? Mass migrations unprecedented in history because there are more people now than ever. Where will they go?
37
But in the long run, as you have previously noted, the problems of climate change, population growth and technological advances may be devastating to the Middle East regardless of the politics of the area.
22
The common denominator in the post-WWII Middle East was that all the countries were caught in the Cold War joke between the US and the Soviets. Now, the US should financially help these countries instead of destroying them through greed and isolation. Where can agreements be made that are good for both sides? Where can the US be a force for good? That likely won't happen under the current US administration but a new one is around the corner. I hope that Middle Eastern nations are patient and are willing to wait for decent US leadership.
8
@Anthony And of course, there can be no such dialogue much less progress so long as we do not have an ambassador in most of the critical Middle East capitals.
Every single policy in the Middle East is derived from one country, and as an extension, from the supporting by the United States.
The only way forward for peace is there to be a two state solution and that is not going to happen until there is a true Liberal government in both countries and Liberal leaders all around.
That is the first pillar, and the other pillar is of course oil.
The sooner that the west progresses to new green energy policies, and follows through on implementing them, then the kingdoms and strongmen are going to hold sway. That is a fact.
Until that happens, then it is going to be the people (especially women) that are going to connect (via social media). They will do so until there is critical mass, and what I described above happens.
It is going to take hard work and some time still.
8
Not true. The Soviet Union used its relationship with Europe to gain economic cooperation with the Arab world during the Cold War and its influence in the Middle East by inciting proxy conflicts between the Arab states and their Jewish neighbors. The superpowers interacted with proxy combatants, which factored into the Soviet Union's omission from the Camp David Accords. The policy exposed Soviet dualism; while aiming to reduce their military budget and improve their image of the world stage, they pursued an anti-Israel policy in the Arabian Peninsula.
Much of the views and policies and views (antisemitism) in place in the Middle East are there thanks to good ole Russia.
2
"Citizens now declare: If you can’t guarantee me a government job, I get to say whatever I want."
Of all the "trends" in the new Middle East, I find the increase in people willing to speak their minds the most interesting.
In some countries, such behavior wins you a place in jail--or worse.
But the very fact that people are demanding rights from the ground up rather than waiting for them top down gives me hope.
Thanks Tom Friedman for giving us a more realistic portrait of this potentially more "democratic" region that still faces stark reminders that they aren't quite there yet.
The Internet is getting them there faster, as it continues to also be a force for evil as we saw in New Zealand, and certainly, a most raucous, untamed form of communications in the US.
9
All very interesting, but just when did the US become a Middle Eastern country? I do know that continents shift periodically in geologic history, but the last time I looked at a globe we were still centered in the northern quadrant of the western hemisphere.
6
@Penseur
Is this your first Tom Friedman column? He's been writing about the Middle East for many years. It's his area of expertise. Many of us were introduced to Tom Friedman through his excellent book "From Beirut to Jerusalem", the 1989 National Book Award winner for non-fiction & Friedman's account of his decade-long reporting for the NY Times in the Middle East.
The Middle East may not seem important to you, but it remains at the heart of many of the world's problems. We ignore it at our peril.
@downeast60 - "The Middle East… remains at the heart of many of the world's problems."
Problems that, to a great degree, we created and/or exacerbated.
Friedman's "expertise" led him to support Chickenhawk George's invasion of Iraq in response to 9/11, even tho' Iraq had absolutely no responsibility for those heinous attacks. That poorly conceived and poorly planned invasion destabilized the entire ME. We can find better "experts" than Friedman.
Nature abhors a vacuum. The void created by the US in the Middle East will be filled by China and/or Russia, provided it fits into their longer term strategies and interests. Ditto for Africa. Our strategy seems to be based upon what they do first. Such reactive instead of proactive response now defines our 'foreign policy.' Good luck with that.
8
Power sharing and job creation through innovation are steps in the right direction, but the Middle East will have to do it on their own until disinterested and uninformed Trump is out and the regional wealth generated in the oil states can be used to create a Middle East Marshal Plan instead of supporting the super rich lifestyle of the Saudi princes. To do this there will have to be major changes in U.S. foreign policy. The alternative is police States and chaos
17
I left my home country of Jordan in October 1957 to study at the American University of Beirut and after graduating in 1963 taught for 9 months at a junior college in the West Bank. I immigrated to the United States in June 1964 and never looked back. I am very excited to hear about the technological progress and share King Abdullah concern about unemployment and poverty in Jordan. Jordan is a country of immigrants and the King is, in my humble opinion is the glue that keeps it together. Without the King who is also the grandson of immigrants my birth country will turn into another ruined Syria. So let’s hope that Jordan, under the wise guidance of this young King will find its future of prosperity and peace and reconciliation among the many factions that constitute this ancient land.
35
It is obvious that Trump and his administration do not see the Middle East as a whole.They were in a big hurry to put the American Embassy in Jerusalem-done.They wanted to befriend the Saudis -done.They are at work trying to punish Iran- that is about the sum total of their policy.Just a few years ago King Abdullah often visited and our State Department tried to help his country.Other presidents have seen the region as a whole and have worked with ambassadors to ameliorate the many problems there.America cannot fix everything but they can be engaged and enlightened.
25
The fact that there is less oil in Jordan that there is elsewhere in the Middle East provides an additional incentive for the government to get going on economic reform. Which may ultimately turn out to be a good thing, considering how falling oil prices may ultimately sink the royal kleptocracies of Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., Kuwait, etc. At least King Abdullah is trying; he and his people deserve the support that our own feckless leader is wasting on the despots next door.
46
This is going to sound drastic, but it has to be said.
I am of the strong belief that the US must stop buying Saudi oil. Forever.
We're on the edge of total disintegration as a nation of beliefs. We're on the verge of losing our purpose, meaning and authority forever.
I'm not sure if the US can claw back to freedom. It might be forever lost.
There are just too many things that have to be done properly. We have to be very careful in our execution of the total annihilation of the Saudi palaces. We don't want to kill people, but we have to get rid of all of the palaces. All of them.
The careful approach is to prevent maintenance of them.
With Russia, it might be better to try to form an alliance with the resistance while brokering a deal for Putin's retirement. You can't threaten the man, just let him go away peacefully and protected.
What to do about Iran and Israel? Well, the first step, as Obama understood correctly, was to dampen the unconditional support from the USA. And as things stand now, I'd withdraw that support until they change. Their leader needs to go. I won't name him, because I don't give him the privilege of my mind. I blocked out his name.
The killing of Khashoggi was the line in the sand that had to be drawn, and our president wouldn't know it existed if you emptied his bank account for it.
I don't know anymore. I'm not sure freedom will survive. If our president cannot stand up for the first amendment, it seems a sign of US end game.
9
Tom,
How about encouraging your new friends in Jordan to donate some of its vast property towards a Palestinian state contiguous with most of the West Bank?
About 70% of Jordan’s population considered themselves Palestinian as all of what is now Jordan was part of historic Palestine until 1922 when Britain gave it away to the Hashemite Kingdom in return for certain favors during WW I.
I’m not sure how the rest of the region would react to that, including Israel, but it makes a lot of sense - if Jordan would be open to it (big if).
21
Friedman, in Amman, unsurprisingly fails to mention discrimination in Jordan against Palestinians, who comprise some 70 percent of Jordan's population. Why does Friedman ignore "the plight of the Palestinians" in Jordan?
15
@JG. He ignores it because Jordan, if you look at any map of the Mandate for Palestine n 1922, is no more and no less than East Palestine. It just happens that it is ruled by a family that Ibn Saud kicked out of Arabia whose main supporters are Bedouin’s tribesmen who hate the Palestinian Arab majority. It’s going to take a lot more than a nascent tech industry to avoid Jordan's implosion.
2
HUNGER SPUR MIGRATION
Hunger is a difficult subject to talk about, it touches our conscience, challenges our sense of empathy and it make us feel restless and reflective. President John F. Kennedy (1961-63) portrayed poverty, disease, war and tyrants as the common enemies of man; he created the Alliance For Progress to share with the less fortunate a small portion of the American wealth. Fifty years later, millions continue dying of hunger, displaced by war or decimated by disease. Tyrants and irreverent leaders around the world continue to create havoc for the poor in every which way; is this chaos generational or have we lost much of our humanity?-The US Boom generation set out to change the world and they did it with hard work and a heart for others. President Kennedy for one preferred participation and cooperation; this is in contrast to current essential head of states or politicians who urge isolationism as the path to prosperity or war to solve problems. They create new crop of excuses to wage economic trade or military confrontations, unleashing in the process devastating events for the poor. Today, I don't know which one is greater, greed, economic inequality or corruption. Certainly, the future looks bleak for the poor, not only around the world, but also in Western countries. What hurt the most is not the pain of hunger, but feeling unwanted.........it shears the heart.
22
Climate change will very shortly overwhelm every single institution on earth. Mass migration will become the greatest challenge to those countries that are most modernized. Every single week there is yet another example or two of what we have done to this planet and its horrific effects, yet the world and especially the United States still do nothing of significance to change future outcomes. Look at the never before seen flooding in Nebraska that is occurring right now. King Abdullah is indeed a far better leader with more intelligence, insight and compassion than the American President. 20% solar energy production in Jordan by next year is admirable. I live in the sunniest state in America and our present solar production is 6% of total energy usage, with a goal of only 15% by 2025, which at the current pace will not be achievable. Until and unless the world comes to its senses about truly the only real threat facing all of us and every other species on earth and does something meaningful about it, every country is doomed and the poorest ones will suffer the most at first. Converting the world to sustainable energy could provide meaningful work for everyone on earth for decades, but the wealthy would never allow for it. They prefer their doomsday plans with their safehouses and private security, so that they can be the final voyeurs of the end of the world.
71
@Rich D
The moves of the 1% to safe mansions in various countries is good for the countries they leave. The super rich are bad citizens who buy up houses and land and "invest" in housing they rent out at ever rising prices, destroying what were neighborhoods and pushing out those who were born there. Rich Chinese in Vancouver have made housing unaffordable for Canadians. Gentrification has been weaponized in San Francisco, pricing out the artists and gay neighborhoods and ethnic areas and Chinese markets that made it a city of small towns and a pleasure to live in. All that money doing nothing about the existential threat of climate change.
35
While quantitative changes are significant, nonetheless relatively little has fundamentally changed in the century since T.E. Lawrence described the region in "The Seven Pillars of Wisdom." An artificial boundary here, a temporary alliance there, an old fight recast, tribes renamed. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Friedman's most significant observation: "It is increasingly obvious that social networks and cyber tools are making efficient autocrats, like China, even more efficient. But they seem to be making soft authoritarians, like Jordan, more fragile, and they are making Western democracies increasingly ungovernable."
Friedman may be late to the realization that the internet is at least as much threat as savior, but he is coming around. I would now like to see from him an analysis of how he has evolved, the why and the how, as well as his thoughts on a politically doable, not a morally self-congratulatory, way forward. It is not that he is necessary to the discussion, but as a thoughtful and potentially self-reflective person he has the opportunity to add a bit of light, as we seek a way to at least harness the genie that we will never be able to put back in the bottle.
Friedman will have to go one step further before his thoughts might prove usefully perceptive and relevant. He has to understand that most people will, when offered the opportunity, avail themselves of the novel, the convenient, the popular, and the well-marketed "indispensable."
5
Friedman's most significant observation: "It is increasingly obvious that social networks and cyber tools are making efficient autocrats, like China, even more efficient. But they seem to be making soft authoritarians, like Jordan, more fragile, and they are making Western democracies increasingly ungovernable."
Friedman may be late to the realization that the internet is more threat than savior, but at least he is coming around. What I would like to see from him is an analysis of how he evolved, the why, the how, and his thoughts on a politically practical, not a morally self-congratulatory, way forward. It is not that he is so important to the discussion, but as a thoughtful and potentially self-reflective person he has the opportunity to add a bit of light as we seek a way to at least harness the genie that we will never be able to put back in the bottle.
However, Friedman will have to go one step further before his thoughts might prove usefully perceptive. He has to come to understand that most people will, when offered the opportunity, avail themselves of the novel, the convenient, the popular, the well marketed "indispensable."
As to the Middle East: while quantitative changes are significant, nonetheless relatively little has fundamentally changed in the century since T.E. Lawrence described much of it in "The Seven Pillars of Wisdom." An artificial boundary here, a temporary alliance there, an old fight recast. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
9
Well with Mr. Friedman it's either climate or technology.
The Middle East is falling apart, the center cannot hold. Actually it never has.
But for one country there is hope. That country has no real natural resources, has social strife between its Bedouin ruling class and its native (and non-native) more urban-based Palestinians (and yes I meant native when I wrote it). That country has rampant unemployment and an autocratic monarch ruling with very few trappings of anything resembling democracy, but he is a basically nice guy.
But not to worry. Jordan has discovered high tech and wonder of wonders, some of that high tech is not even controlled directly by the government. Marvelous. All will soon be in order in the Hashemite Kingdom.
Look again, Mr. Friedman. High tech does not cure all ills on either side of the Jordan River. As for the Jordanians doing it right and fast: history has stronger forces. I would not bet on a long-lasting nice-guy led anachronistic monarchy.
16
So glad to read that there are positives in the Middle East. Thank you.
3
We have to remember that Thomas Friedman promoted Muhammad bin Salman as the future of the Arab world only a short while ago. Friedman does not mention the women in Saudi custody being tortured (I read this in the NYT). He mentions 1.3 million Syrian refugees in Jordan but not the millions of Palestinian refugees driven out of Israel-Palestine.
So, what can we make of this article? Jordan carries a burden that would destroy similar countries. Good for Jordan.
But, it seems to me that the future is Iran, surviving quite well in spite of US extreme sanctions. S. Korea quadrupled its purchase of Iranian fine oil yesterday. Europeans have set up a mechanism for business with Iran that circumvents the dollar, and the Austrian PM says Europe should stiff the US. Italy is willing to join China's One Road project, and Turkey will buy Russian defensive weapons.
It seems that Trump is unifying the world, against the US. Jordan's problem is that it is allied with the US. I suspect that in the next 10 years we will see many Middle East nations move towards China and Iran. Maybe that is even good.
79
john,
I agree that we should not be hitting Iran over the head with economic sanctions, but except for their economy, there is not a lot to love there. Their form of government is a theocracy based on islam. It is biased toward religious practices and herefore it is oppressive. They are also major suupporters of the murderous Hezbollah in Lebanon. They are looking to export their style of government, which in the end will be an string of other repressive regimes or a failure. We are having our own experience with tribalism here. Our Trump tribe is hard hearted and bitter. They do not want to build something better, but only lash out in anger. Our original colonists, the Puritans, wanted to worship in freedom, but in many ways they were the Taliban of their time. The founders of our great country, Washington, Jefferson, Adams were not religious fanatics. They had the wisdom to encode freedom of worship, along with many other freedoms, in our bill of rights. Religious tribalism is an ultimately destructive force and we should avoid it. The Middle East is a world class mess because of it.
5
@joe parrott - "Their form of government is a theocracy based on islam…" As opposed to ours, which is theocracy based on Mammon.
5
We, the economic powers of the United States of America, declare that the killing of Jamal Khashoggi was a declaration of war on freedom.
We furthermore, in every respect fathomable, declare that those responsible will be called to bow before freedom, democracy and free will. That in these terms includes the Supreme leader bow before US dignitaries, shows that you must reform your ideas or be cut off from our economy for the foreseeable future.
We will take care of Putin. We in the United States of America include people from such a vast swath of the World as to be without doubt Superior in ethics and the pursuit of Freedom to every nation on Earth, as to know our views are superior.
We do declare, our election system needs to be reformed.
1
Deja vu. The same things were said about the region in 2011 and before. Just when you think there is a breakthrough and democracy is coming it gets snuffed out by oil interests, or religious fanaticism, or war, or one autocratic is replaced by another. The truth is in the article though, the deeply conservative rural people will defy all efforts to change and improve. It isn't the urban areas that are ungovernable, it is the rural ones because they're dead set on not adapting or improving and when the well dries up they'll come not for jobs, but for the heads of the people that tried to warn them. They are the primitive version of our species that the rest of us should find a way to isolate ourselves from. Homo Regressivus.
14
There are more reasons to be pessimistic than optimistic of the Middle East’s future. Two undercurrents contribute to hopelessness: The recent shift toward increased authoritarianism and United States’ support for it. Renewed political repression is shaping the future of regional players like Egypt, Turkey, Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Even better economic opportunities in the region are unlikely to forestall a clash between rulers and the masses. Greater the entrenchment of authoritarianism, greater is the potential for political violence and regional conflicts – the latter serving as distractions to ease domestic unrest. Even a booming economy is limited in its capability to pacify citizens who feel persecuted. The simmering and unprecedented political tensions in Trump’s America is an example.
Washington’s unconditional support for certain Arab states and perpetual antagonism toward Iran exacerbate the problems. A wiser and cautious American policy could change the destiny of the region. The United States has the power to make the region a better place. All it lacks is the desire.
22
@Nav Pradeepan
and if you read Navaro's piece on this same page , those are some of the countries that we are selling tanks to
Walt Kelly was never more correct......
2
It's time to push the two-state solution out of the way since its just a fig leaf for the slow annexation of the West Bank by the Israeli nationalists under the protection of the pro-Israeli lobbies in the US and their divisive hard-right politics.
Instead, a new US administration should forcefully take the lead in imposing economic prosperity on the West Bank and working to establish the West Bank and Jordan as centers of job and opportunity creating economic growth. The Israeli nationalists need to be shoved out of the way and no more deference to the idea that they know best. The American government has a lot of leverage over the government of Israel and it should start to use it -- forcefully--to work for wide ends.
The plight of the young and unemployed across the Arab world is an opportunity to start building a better regional future if the parochialism of the Israeli nationalists and the Arab autocrats can be curtailed.
14
Abandoning the two state solution would mean citizenship in Israel and the right to vote for Palestinians? Apartheid with food and jobs is still apartheid. Shame.
2
And what about birth control for these over producing countries, like the Chinese had the foresight to understand, realizing they could not govern an ever increasing population? This used to be an acceptable and logical discussion regarding population control.
1
@Paul A Myers
So, you want to “shove Israel out of the way?” I don’t like Bibi any more than you do, but they did uproot settlements in Gaza and look what you got in return—Hamas! Even Egypt had to seal its border with Gaza and now you have riots in the streets and missiles being hurled daily at their neighbors. Tell me, how would you react if it was your family who had to dodge this daily strafing? Israelis moved to the right BECAUSE their beloved Labor Party tried to make peace with Palestine and all they got in return was the Intifada.
The almost casual nature of the aside about how "social networks and cyber tools" are making Western democracies ungovernable is unconscionable, considering the source, who has worshipped those awesome "disrupters" out there in Silicon Valley for decades.
"It is increasingly obvious" that the grim reality of the Digital Revolution in the real world is diametrically opposed to the way Friedman has been saying with the utmost confidence that it would be.
And the consequences for humanity may very well be cataclysmic.
And yet there remain people out there who wonder why there's so much anger at the "elites", and why so many people turned to someone like Trump in disgust, hoping he would just to take the whole system and burn it down.
12
I would like to think that our country, the richest in the world, with the oldest experiment in Democracy and the greatest educational resources and tech parks can help. Nay, must help. Softpower where it will work. Good article of hope in a region of despair, like Yemen now is. Next to the richest country in the region, Saudi Arabia. Take heed, house of Saud.
1
"The problem is that the hour is late." It's been late at least since the end of WWI, 100 years, now. Arab culture is different from ours; it's fundamentally tribal, Arabs seem intractably fractious, they have what is in effect a one crop economy, and that crop will decline in value in the future, and nuclear weapons are on the horizon for the bigger countries in the region; the best thing for us to do is step back. Will the Russians, Chinese, and Iranians try to fill the void? Yes--let them. If we haven't been able to make it work for the Arabs why are we worried that they can?
6
The final quote from a Jordanian minister, "We have to do everything. We have to do it right. We have to do it fast." These should be the marching orders for any country in the world.
10
@richard wiesner
"We have to do everything. We have to do it right. We have to do it fast." That fits our Green New Deal in America, not just tech start-ups in Jordan.
1
Friedman's most significant observation:
"It is increasingly obvious that social networks and cyber tools are making efficient autocrats, like China, even more efficient. But they seem to be making soft authoritarians, like Jordan, more fragile, and they are making Western democracies increasingly ungovernable."
38
@Steve Fankuchen While I have just skimmed over Mr. Friedman`s article; I have long believe he has more insights into the Middle East than anyone else I know. He has as usual hit the nail on the head about how the fast changing realities of the world we find ourselves in is both chaotic and highly unpredictable. The authoritarian forces in this world seem to be able to exploit and manipulate these new tools far better than democracies; which rely on people trusting their elected governments to do the right thing; but are easily manipulated by extremists to forment dissent on a daily bases. It is making such countries virtually ungovernable when they have to respond every day to social media; which is often based much more on hype and lies than facts. In countries based in the Middle East; which is constantly in a state of chaos to begin with; GOD only knows where it leads?!
2
I wish I could bring that reply back up. I was talking to my wife and I missed it. I'm sure it was informative.
The absence of the U.S. seems to be causing another big change: it has removed the implied constraint on authoritarian leaders to carry out radical agenda. Prince MBS in Saudi Arabia is the worst example, but Turkey's Erdogan and Israel's Netanyahu have moved to consolidate power and clamp down on democratic reforms, fighting against the empowered citizens Mr. Friedman observes. Something has to give.
8
It would be nice to believe that Jordan is solving its problem of population unrest. But despite some admirable steps toward modernity, I doubt the benevolent king can quiet a growing population of angry men without jobs.
Outside Jordan conditions in the Middle East are worse. Jordan has the only benevolent king and apparently the only kingdom experimenting with modernity. The other Middle East kingdoms can only have worse unemployment situations and growing unrest.
And we should not think that the bad news is contained within the Middle East. Populations are on the move. Whether because of unemployment, political oppression or adverse conditions due to climate change, people are leaving the Middle East. Unwelcome immigration is shaking European societies and economies. It will only get worse.
We here in the Western Hemisphere are not immune. Long gone are the days America could count on oceans to protect us from turmoil on other continents. But even if population disruptions are far from reaching us, their consequences to Europe certainly will affect us.
If we had leaders capable of thinking, we would not sit by and watch as Middle East key pillars fall. But alas, we have self-serving profiteers "governing" in Washington D.C., and we have isolationists and xenophobes supporting and cheering on our bumbling and stumbling excuse for leaders.
They want to build walls when we should be building bridges of understanding, cooperation and agreements to solve shared problems.
82
@JABarry
“If we had leaders capable of thinking, we would not sit by and watch as Middle East key pillars fall.”
The five pillars of (past) stability of the region identified by Friedman are:
(1) U.S. involvement in shaping the future of the region;
(2) some kind of Israeli-Palestinian peace process pushing for the best two-state solution;
(3) jobs for the population in government bureaucracies or security services;
(4) government control of media, with information flowing only from the top down; and
(5) domination of women by men through formal and informal religious, cultural and legal norms.
Just which of those pillars could (or even should) be saved by “building bridges of understanding, cooperation and agreements”? And how would those bridges save them?
2
@Observer
Sorry, I didn't mean that America should intervene to save the Middle East pillars. I meant that America should pay attention, be involved, work with the Middle East to help them solve their problems. That help might include encouraging more open societies, providing expertise in developing new economic directions, encouraging trade to create more employment.
My point is we should not stick our heads in the mud, think the problems of the Middle East will not reach our doorstep, view them as the "other," think that building walls will keep us safe from turmoil in other parts of the world. Walls of hatred only create resentment and anger, and a challenge to people intent on getting in.
5
Mr Friedman missed One important point about Arab societies. By and large they are tribal, where one or two families (Hamullahs) control the lives in each tribe or city.
Individual's loyalty - first & foremost is to the head of the Tribe (Eat your hearts out trump) - then to the head of the state.
With these type of social structure where mistrust between members of differing tribe is a common Accenture - it is very difficult for any leader - particularly a western born & educated one like H.M. K. Abdullah to build a cohesive and well aligned society in their respective counties.
21
"Second, there has always been some kind of Israeli-Palestinian peace process pushing for the best two-state solution. Again, bye-bye. Today, in truth, the U.S. and Israel seem to be engaged in a search for the best one-state solution, meaning permanent Israeli security control over the West Bank and East Jerusalem, along with some form of deep Palestinian autonomy."
So your suggestion is what, Tom? Israel watches yet another failed jihadi state develop on its eastern flank -- tied to the hip to either Iran, al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah or all of the above? And while the terror tunnels and the rockets and infiltrations and Israeli dead mount, Israel will have the satisfaction of knowing Tom Friedman and the NY Times' readership were happy Israel took yet another "risk for peace" -- happy until they decide to blame Israel for some new sin real or imagined.
34
@JW. And your suggestion is the status quo? Forever?
24
@MEH
By colonizing the west bank, Israel has sealed the creation of a binational state.
It cannot withdraw "settlers" without a civil war and cannot rule ruthlessly over the Palestinians who have learned to resist passively with evident results.
"Apartheid" is non-viable alternative in a connected world.
Thus Israelestine, or Palisrael is in the making.
7
@MEH. No. Confederate with Jordan for 25 years, show that Palestine can function as an actual liberal democracy without terror cells, misogyny, and free speech, and then get a statehood grant from the United Nations Security Council.
3
Those are small problems compared to the fact that the Middle East is likely to become uninhabitable sometime in the second half of this century due to climate change unless we change course dramatically.
87
@Tom
Absolutely--climate change is the number one reason that the region needs to "do everything, do it right, and do it fast".
Although a little population control would help in this regard, too. If people don't voluntarily limit their fecundity, the climate-induced reduction in resources will do it for them--and it will be considerably more painful and disruptive.
62
Of course climate change is worrisome.
But could the Near East benefit from the
rain and snow of Europe displacing their
desert climate?
This thought is hugely speculative, and
I am implicitly suggesting what is apparently
predicted for the U.S.
If my comparison/fantasy of northern Africa's
climate becoming less arid, then ... whoa.
And could the problematic Middle East climate
change for the better?
2
For almost a week now, anti-Hamas protesters have been in the streets of Gaza demanding improved living conditions and good governance. They've been met by the usual as we've seen in Arab countries since the ill-named Arab Spring: beatings, shootings, arrests, along with intimidation, arrests and beatings of any journalist who covers the story.
Yet the NY Times still hasn't uttered a word about this major news. The BBC reports it. Where is the "Newspaper of Record"? Why is thaaaaaat? It couldn't be a threat to the narrative that the Palestinians are poor hapless innocent souls against big bad Israel, could it?
138
@JW Or maybe the explanation is a simpler one. No one, in my opinion...no one does more comprehensive and higher quality reporting of international events than the BBC. End of story.
2
High end tech knows no borders, Tom. How about training in construction, banking, plumbing, land management, nursing, etc.? Jobs that don’t need the Silicon Valley/Country Club heads up? You really don’t get it.
13
The notion that US control of the region is diminishing is betrayed by actual evidence, Mr. Friedman. US military aid to the fascist regime of El Sisi in Egypt (to the tune of billions each year) continues unabated, despite the country's horrific human rights record. The US still maintains its bloated embassy in Iraq as well as a significant military presence. The Iraqi government, weak and sectarian by US design, can do little without US approval. Saudi Arabia is another pillar of US hegemony in the region. And then there's Israel, the continued recipient of the most US aid of any country in the world despite its continued occupation of Palestinian lands. A few examples of entrepeneurship is hardly a way out for a region that continues to be under the footprint of dictators and human rights abusers (see above) supported by the US. As always, follow the money. The ruling class is the same as it was, and the retrenchment of dictatorship in the Middle East after the failure of the Arab Spring has been supported militarily and financially by the US.
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Israel offers more jobs to the Palestine than do the PLO or Hamas! See the real issues.
6
Without USA involvement, no ambassadors have been appointed, not even in Israel despite one working there, and withdrawal of monetary aid from the USA, there are vacuums being filled by wolves and the sheep shall perish. The situation Friedman describes so eloquently with facts and evidences, apply also in the 5 pillars of America being crumpled purposely for reasons unknown!
7
The U.S. doesn't have an ambassador in Saudi Arabia, yet we are conniving with the Saudis to kill civilians in a brutal civil war in Yemen. And Trump has never yet acknowledged the role of the Saudi crown prince in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist who lived in the U.S. Trump doesn't know diplomacy from a dipstick
139
Not surprised that this would get around to blaming Trump. The Arabs own their own problems.
1
Those were not " pillars".
Those were the means by which America maintained control of its imperial ambitions and delusions in the Middle East. It was and still is all about arms and oil.
Crumbling American hegemony in the Middle East is a good thing.
Exposing the fundamental evil inhumane corrupt fraud of the Israeli- Palestinian two-state "delusion" "piece" process is honest.
Fewer jobs in Middle East nations like Jordan without fossil fuel reserves is no surprise.
Minor democratization of information flow in Middle East autocracies has not meant any significant move towards democracy.
While the imaginary lessening of misogyny and patriarchy in the Middle East is almost as delusional as it's mythical demise in America.
The Middle East is malign mess that the British-French Empires made of the end of the Ottoman Empire in the wake of defeat in World War I. America took up their efforts driven by autos and oil. While providing arms to all sides.
And making Arabs pay for the European Christian Holocaust with their blood, land and treasure. America preferred autocrats based upon theology, royal blood, military and ethnic sectarian identity.
What is missing from this discussion is the ethnic national origin divide among Arabs, Europeans, Kurds, Persians and Turks. And the sectarian differences among Sunni and Shia Islam, Christians and Jews. Along with demography and geography matters.
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@Blackmamba
Quote: "making Arabs pay for the European Christian Holocaust with their blood, land and treasure. "
Come again? that's a bunch of baloney.
who said that the entire middle East & gulf region belongs to Arabs or Muslims?
For over 1900 Jews never ever gave up their hope some day to return to the land of their ancestors.
The Holocaust simply provided the impetus for creation of Israel where Jews can find refuge & a place where they are able to defend themselves against the senseless hate against them.
The fact is - right after WWI the Brits & French had divided the region into states which had never existed - all Muslims and only one as a homeland for Jews.
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@Blackmamba
Israel isn't going anywhere. If you insist on a one-state solution, you perpetuate the status quo for the Palestinians.
By the way, Jews were there before the Holocaust and what about the millions of Israeli Jews (around half of Israel's Jewish population) descended from Jews from Arab countries.
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@M. L.
Okay every ancient tribe return from wherever and claim the land your ancestors might have come from a few thousand years ago. Mayhem, ridiculous, crazy in an increasingly international, multicultural world. The tribalism of some Jews may stem from the trauma of WWII but the current idea of Israel is unsustainable. It is built on myth, bigotry and violence.
Do "your" country a favor, King Abdullah, abdicate and live the good life in Monaco. Let the Jordanian's develop a Democracy without the yoke of a Hereditary Monarchy. What, actually, do you add to country, besides puffed up pomp.
4
@bahcom
King Abdullah is said to be the direct decedent of Prophet Muhammad and carries his genes.
1
@M. L.
How would one know? Does that give him a claim to a country even if it could be proven.
Sounds like myth manufactured by the Royal family to justify their fiefdom.
One lifetime(70 years)ago there were about 500,000 people in Jordan. Currently, there are over 10 million. Put another way, for every person that was pursuing water, food, shelter, a job, and healthcare in Jordan in 1950 there are now 20 people in Jordan looking for the same things. Chaos in Jordan is inevitable.
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All this is true and the things beginning to happen in Jordan are encouraging. But I have one overarching concern. What are these people going to use for water? The Middle East is burning up. Sources of freshwater are rapidly disappearing. Glacial meltwater that feeds the streams is vanishing. So what are they going to drink?
Israel is embarking on a massive desalinization infrastructure along with very strong water conservation techniques. What are the Arab states doing about the increasing shortage of drinking water?
After the water dries up, how are they going to grow food? They will have to import. As the price of oil drops and the world moves away from fossil fuels, what are they going to use for money to buy the food?
Couple in the pressures of climate change on top of these political and societal upheavals, and they have a problem. So will the rest of the world when a massive migration begins that dwarfs what we saw from Syria.
Don't take my word for it. Ask the strategists at the Pentagon. Climate change is the number one long term threat to global security.
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@Bruce Rozenblit
Good comment but for the glacial meltwater. True for India and Peru, not the Mideast. A minor quibble.
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@Bruce Rozenblit
Agreed. It's quite likely that historians a century from now will understand the turmoil in the Levant, central Asia, and other subtropical nations as partly caused by climate change. It's hard to see now, but the pressure on civil society comes from growing shortages of vital stuff like water, food and jobs. Climate change increases the pressure.
Those historians will understand the refugees flowing northward and southward as climate refugees.
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@Bruce Rozenblit
Siberia can provide water to the the middle east but the Green Party says its crazy, ecologically apocalyptic and bad for the fish.
1
The number of unemployed young people in Middle Eastern countries, and the dominance of fundamentalist Islam, is a highly volatile mixture. The exposure, accelerated by social media, idle Arab youth of material items and opportunities they will never have, poses an existential threat to the stability of the Middle East, and ultimately the current world order.
11
Women of these Countries : Get Out, If you can. Get Out, when you can. For Women Citizens Of other Nations that are even considering Marrying a Man in this Region and moving there :
No, no, and NO. You will not be the exception, and treated well or even fairly. Things will only get Worse. Guaranteed. You will NOT be “ rescued “. You’re on your own.
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We DO need to DO MORE to help women in these societies leave.
AND...enforce a no fly rule on the men who have trapped these women in a culture that is just not working out for them. No London. No more Paris. Bye to NYC. A little time under House Arrest, only bigger WITH Borders and a lot of time to contemplate what they have created. It could be a real game changer. After the world got a clear TV picture of Pompeo yucking it up with the male members of the Saudi Royal family, always male, lounging around all day doing nothing all day without flown-in-help from harder working parts of the world...and all that beheading and dismembering going on in the background .... yikes.
This may be a good time for the American People to rethink the whole region. There are no US Ambassadors on ground at the moment to run interference.
2
Oy. Friedman waxes enthusiastic again about a middle eastern leader. Granted, Jordan is not Saudi Arabia, but he should get paid as a PR guy, not a columnist.
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@Judy Roitman Is he (or we) supposed to admire Bibi? Oy, indeed!
A one-state solution is either moral suicide or actual suicide for Israel.
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@Atllaw -- Likely both. It won't work. It is wrong to try.
3
This article leaves out the elephant of the room that is climate change. The Middle East is predicated to be one of the most affected areas by global warming, becoming deadly in the midday sun due to temperature extremes. They’re population continues to grow but global water resources decline. Much food grown in the Middle East is some unsustainablely with aquifers that replenish from .5 inch of rain a year. I fear that food and water scarcity will drive the region to biblical levels of chaos within the next 10 years
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@Martin Alexander, northward migration away from hot climate towards cooler (geographically happens to be towards Europe) already started a long time ago, Iran Iraq wars became mere excuses. Just look at Syria, a skeleton of a civilization left. People from North Africa have been migrating to Europe for decades now. European countries have been dealing with immigration for decades, it just so happens most migrants are muslims. Assimilation has been difficult for these migrants because European countries are overwhelmed.
Mind you, we will see similar waves of people moving northward from South and Central Americas, not so much because of climate disruptions, but because these countries have corrupt leaders and cannot even take care of their own citizens. Back in colonial times, by the sword of the church, indigenous ancient tribes were colonized by the Spaniards. Now independent, these erstwhile colonies have their own leaders who are corrupt greedy power hungry, depriving their population of basic needs, even amidst plenty of natural resources, water oil and such.
16
@Martin Alexander
Mad dogs and Englishmen
go out in the midday sun.
The toughest Burmese bandit
could never understand it.
In Rangoon,
at the strike of noon,
they foam at the mouth and run.
But mad dogs and Englishmen
go out in the midday sun.
;-)
Like Mr. Friedman, I too look forward to Iraqis teaming with Iranians to build a more secure Middle East.
Free of the US occupation.
5
I had great hope for the Arab spring, it provided hope to those who wished for change but it also gave autocracies and theocracies greater reasons to become more restrictive in response. The writing has been on the wall for a long time now but the internet has sped up understanding of other cultures around the globe. One of the reasons North Korea can keep an entire society in check is because of the lack of outside influence in a society that bans it. Like Devin Nunes people understand that they are uneducated, unloved and being made fun of because of their backwards way of thinking. They all want change from Iran to Saudi Arabia they're just not in a place to demand it. It will come but outside sources are as important as the inside limitations forced on them. It would be nice to be able to point to America as the shining example of Democracy in action but those days have been put on hold indefinitely. We can one day retrieve that glory but until we can again point to sober judgement, moral clarity, democratic principals, human rights and devotion to law as our touchstones and humanity's birthright then we can start looking at their falling pillars and ours as dominoes. Whether we start the fall or end it, one thing remains the same. We all fall down.
18
@Rick Gage
You are so right. Change is coming in the Middle East. Don't know exactly when, but it is coming. Problem is, with the present administration, we know America will be on the wrong side of history. And that will have consequences for generations.
7
Lots of information here. The effects of social media stands out and applies to all countries.
"Social networks and cyber tools are making efficient autocrats, like China, even more efficient. But they seem to be making soft authoritarians, like Jordan, more fragile, and they are making Western democracies increasingly ungovernable."
A lot here to explore. Is social media an inherently destabilizing force? If so, is there anything that can be done about it aside from government censorship?
1
@Evan Meyers You ask whether the internet is destabilizing. I think it will be as destabilizing, perhaps more so, than the printing press.
5
The writing is on the wall for oil and gas, within 50 years they will be in serious decline. One resource they do have is sunshine, and plenty of space in the deserts to produce solar power which can be exported. This I believe is a way forward and I wish them luck.
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@David
Well there's this for the time being:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/leviathan-gas-field-nears-final-stage-of-development-with-floating-rig/
3
@Atllaw I agree that big oil is still in the money making mindset, and at the moment no government is not going to refuse massive revenue, however, the planet will let us know quite soon what Mankind has to do if it wishes to remain alive and well.
6