Speaking of psychological analyses: Brexit is the perfect example of "sunk cost bias," the belief that having invested a lot of blood, sweat, money and toil in an idea (i.e, "defeating the Commies in Vietnam") one can only continue to do more of the same in order to save face. The only comfort I gather from this British idiocy is the knowledge that the U.S. is not alone in its own idiocy.
27
"...a long extension could well mean no Brexit." Hell-OOO! That would be a great resolution:
Get British leadership that can solve the problems that the UK faced in 2016 (but David Cameron couldn't lead resolution of) and carry on.
Stellar British leadership within an EU that dearly wants the UK to stay in the EU could resolve the issues that phony "Leave" voices hoodwinked Brits into supporting in 2016.
An INFORMED referendum would be the truly first referendum on the issue, and would certify the fact that Brits GENERALLY don't want to leave the EU, which polls clearly indicate.
7
Please forgive a moment of outrageous optimism.
Imagine for a moment that Britain comes to its senses and holds another referendum and stays in the EU, understanding that leaving would serve Putin well, but not the people of Britain.
And then America comes to its senses and, come 2020, tosses not only Trump to the curb but also each and every cowardly Republican who kissed his ring to the same curb.
Imagine a west that comes to the realization that it is at war with Russia, at least Putin's Russia, and, unified, it fights back with everything it has, both in the UN and in the courts.
It is not pleasant to fight, to get in the face of those who use words and large amounts of money to bring out the mobs, and tell them they are traitors and are evil, but that is what the times demand.
And, of course, to get out and vote, early and often...
I find myself grateful for the media both in Britain and in the US that hasn't been cowed by the far right.
Hugh
226
Brilliant. The expat Yank sees the playing field from a dispassionate distance while turning the King's English on the schoolboys kicking each other's shins in the scrum. Bloody hell.
4
The British "forced into the “other passports” line at European borders"? Just stay at home and watch WW2 documentaries on how Poppy defeated the Nazis. Who's a good Empire? Yes, you are! You are still important! I am very curious to see how things will play out and I don't think the "long exit" strategy will work. The first decision of the European Parliament the Brits don't like will blow up in everyone's face. Frankly, the Brits belong as much to the European Union as the Scots to Britain. I.e. not very. It's true that maybe they should go back sometime later, but the EU needs to be left alone for a bit.
8
To an extent, I see both the Brexit and Trump debacles as related. Globalism promised prosperity, but what it delivered is riches to the already well off, while those displaced by the movement of jobs and work, were abandoned by their governments and political parties. What the aforementioned groups did not realize is that while money is important, it is votes that count. There are way more people who were hurt by globalism that there are people who can write a $1million political check. When they had finally had enough, Brexit and Trump were the result.
The powers that be in both countries have been paralyzed by doubt, confusion, and outright lies by the newly empowered groups. In the US the political class is using the special prosecutor and the courts to label Trump et al, as 'the other' and expel them from the body politic. The British are as usual are trying to muddle through unfortunately, they are doing more muddling than throughing.
The British political process has become a Monty Python sketch - with the EU as the men in the castle, and the British as themselves: "Eww, you silly English, I fart in your general direct."
6
I totally agree--
***
I’m an American, who spent my growing-up time in Canada, during the decade following WWII.
So if you unzipped me? You'd find, “Maple Leaf compost,” right next to my heart--
Which is to say that although I'm, “fully American" on the outside, I acculturated to become, “a wormy little Socialist," on the inside—
—
And I can be annoyingly, “British," when pressed!
--
Which means I can assure you that Britain is North America's *indispensable* link to the European Continent.
***
So then, if or when Brexit materializes in any form, Canadians and Americans will be painfully deprived of that crucial intermediary contact; one that guarantees a robust, ongoing relationship with our European counterparts, so vital to security and wellbeing on both sides of the Atlantic!
***
But I'm betting that the British themselves are too wise and responsible to quit the EU for their own sakes, now that we all know the enormous consequences--
Plus there’s a cultural connection, between we who speak English primarily, and a billion or so Europeans who are fluent in their languages *and* ours; whose histories, cultures, outlooks and idiosyncrasies continue to be key to who we and they, *all* are.
***
Britain then, is the “glue,” that binds Europeans to their far-flung offspring. And if Brexit breaks that binding? The irreversible consequences will extend far into the future.
—
For this reason, I believe that it’s imperative, that Britain *remain* in the EU.
8
From time to time unciviliar comments are badly required.
Mr. Erlanger has already posted the Monty Python´s take on The Most Honourable Marquess of Mayhemshire, Chaoschester and Hullabalooland, Lady Theresa May, in her famed role as "Black Knight of 2019" trying to copy the infamous power strategy of "Angela die Alternativlose", the feared Dark Empress of the not-so cut off Continent,
Now it´s time for the Monty Python´s take on a regular Brexit debate in the House of Commons, still the world´s famous role model of Westminster parliamentarism, however state 4.0. Here it is:
https://youtu.be/J1FfrnOXGHg
Roger, PLEASE:
Do you really want to write your next Op-Ed about "The crisis of the West" or "Liberalism on retreat" or something like this in the next six months pretending again to search for the reasons for such phenomenons desperately? Really??
1
As the Brexit Turns.
Enjoy the hottest soap opera on TV! Brought to you by the most disciplined political party in modern history! Cliff hangers! Backstabbing! Betrayal! Scandals galore!
And stay tuned for the full movie version, Monty Python and the Holy Brexit! Watch the MPs bring out their dead amendments! See the Castle Anthrax, where eight score young blondes and brunettes, all between sixteen and nineteen and a half, are cut off in the castle with no one to protect them from Black Brexit Knight! Thrill to that Dynamite Rabbit taking a bite out of Brexit! Watch the evil EU try to cut down the mightiest tree in forest with...a herring!
1
The grass would be long indeed if British Parliamentarians could think outside the box and get to hell out of northern Ireland, one of the last vestiges of the British Empire. The Leavers are in the grip of nostalgia for Rule Britannia going back to King Billy, William of Orange, at the Battle of the Boyne in 1690. Give the Irish emancipation on their island and the Little Englanders can follow the public school boys into oblivion.
2
Nationalism in all its forms, is a curse.
7
When I watched the depicable Nigel Farage lie on camera two days before the referendum and tell Brits that all that saved money would flow directly into the NHS, I was sure that sensible Brits would see through his lies and last minute scary posters of anonymous darkies creeping over walls to destroy Brittania. Well, they didn’t. Farage and his followers wanted one thing: a cleaner, whiter UK. Brecit was just the start. And, as in America, the attraction of tribalism worked. Now, they are trying to shift the blame to May, the EU, Merkel or any other target who will keep them from admitting they were fools. I lived in and still love England, but no longer admire the idiots who allowed the tribal dog whistle to lead them over a cliff...as they are in America.
17
Dear Honey Brit,
You can ask for an extension for living in our house, but only if you would like that we sleep together again.
Don’t even think of messing around just to seek an opportunity for better divorce terms.
With love !
12
Even as the stricken ship lay sinking, the music from her deck kept playing,
7
Brexit proves that plebiscitory democracy is far worse than any rule by aristocracy imaginable.
2
Imagine a world with no Brexit, and no Trump! Oh, 2015 feels so long ago!
13
I hope it's a long postponement...long enough to follow the money as to who funded Brexit through shell corporations. (It's not been a mystery to me; it's the same gang that funds Steve Bannon and the Trump Crime Family.)
Once this information is made public and the British population realizes it's been "had," a second referendum will refuse Brexit.
Marine Le Pen's "thank you" trip to visit Putin for his influx of cash into the FN (now even more Vichyesque Rassemblement Nationale) gave the game away to French voters, who remember the Occupation and their history of collaboration versus resistance.
7
I know the answer to the question: What do brits want.
I want my empire baaaaaaaaaaack!
11
Well one thing at least has come out of the past decades in Europe: Britain has learnt to put on a passable farce. I strongly recommend parliament.tv as one of the most improbable yet entertaining comedy channels available on the web. This week's programming has been pure delight peppered with phrases like "lock the doors", "spit it out man" "wonderful rhetoric, just no substance", "it may have happened in my lifetime, but much more likely to have happened in yours", "I'd like to thank the right honourable member for yielding" and of course those many moments marked by raucous braying. Britain, we will miss you as you slip into your dotage, farewell .
8
Transference....I think you mean “Projection”. Britain is projecting all fears onto Brussels. Britain is not treating Brussels as shadowy parental figure instead of the actual bureaucracy it is.
2
Having to stand in the "other passport" line. Oh, how dire! Anything but that!!
2
Agree. Sat there watching the news most of last week trying to work out what the heck was going on with this lark. I just got more and more wound up with the so called politicians who seemed to be out of their depth and incompetent. Watching them was like watching 8 year olds playing football. What absolute shambles this government is and the opposition is even worse!
6
What I find fascinating are the parallels to WWI, exactly a century ago. It was a duty as British subjects that brought Indians, Australians, New Zealanders and other soldiers of the British Empire to serve in that disastrous killing machine. The War demolished the Empire, impoverished millions, created the ANZAC nations and planted the seeds of Nazism. Now nationalists, neo-Nazis and despots are taking power around the globe and British citizens wax nostalgically about some fantasy Empire. The same delusions seem to be leading the world again to conflict, economic decline and disintegration. This time the UK itself may break up, and what a small, uninspiring place the new nation of Little England will be.
11
Spot on ......! Most Scots voted against leave and are watching from across the border with frustration, amazement and increasing anger, especially as these 'English Public School Boys' arrogantly discount Scots as a bunch of heather munching plebs whose opinion is immaterial.
11
Tired of reading we've had it. We've only had enough of Theresa May's Ground Hog Day Brexit. We want resolution and common sense and the end of DUP's collusion and the eztreme right wing ERG of the wealthy.
21
The second referendum may be needed. Otherwise pols will be squaking about the betrayal of democracy. Personally I never understood how you could decide such a monumental issue with a referendum. If Brexit is defeated in a second referendum it will only confirm an observation by Keynes when the facts change I change my mind what do you do? May and her party simply preferred to play upon the fears of voters rather than bother with negotiation and undertake the time and effort to win support for Brexit. There's a really good report on the doubts of British business over Brexit and also quite readable by Harvard's School of Government: Deal or No Deal. A team has been interviewing companies, trade associations, MPs, various people from the universities and think tanks for their insights and opinions on the matter.
https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp101
1
Mr. Cohen,
There is one perspective you are missing, through no fault on your part, and that is what we Irish (meaning those of us in the Republic, the 26 counties just south of the border, the British border, partitioning our sovereign nation, drawn and policed by the Brits' lackeys, the DUP (that group of 10 hardcore Unionists who, in return for billions of pounds Sterling, agreed to prop up the all but dead Tories, thereby ensuring the survival of Mays' stiff upper-lipped crazies) what we have always known about the Brita is this - one has to play the fool with them, be their jester, the thing they have an innate desire to lord over and poke at, making them feel worthy and believing in their own hubris.
Those crazy Brits; oft-times I saw a distinct tremulous petulance in those far from stiff lips, a yearning for the days of yore, the days when British colonial rule ensured that most of humanity owed its subjugation and "prosperity" to the majesty of the Empire.
And boy has that age old "Irish Problem", ever come back to haunt them; I can't stop laughing as I watch how desperately Arlene Foster and her DUP partners want to remain secure trade-wise, by remaining part of the EU market, while needing to exit the EU so their British masters will continue to cross their hoary common palms with Sterling.
If I was negotiating for the EU, I would now be making it perfectly clear to May and her crazies, that March 29 was a drop dead inviolable date, no extension possible.
13
The British catastrophe of Brexit will be decided in 2 weeks, one way or another. Prime Minister May may not have much longer to say "it's my deal or the highway". Hopefully, on our side of the pond, Trump will be on his way out of town sooner than we can imagine. He wanted his cake and to eat it, too. Hopefully America and England -- lands of hope and glory -- will be summat restored.
Right now, on our hinge of history, white nationalistic terrorism is more on our minds in America than the former British Empire (shrunken since Victoria's time) trying to regain its days of glory. We're not studying how Shakespeare would deal with England's plight (like Macbeth's or Hamlet's). We're studying how to keep our Constitution alive in the face of the whole catastrophe of our 45th President's rule. .
The world, since yesterday, has been riveted by social media and the terrorist attack on 2 mosques and Islamic worshippers in their peaceful places in Christchurch, New Zealand. A 28 year old white supremacist from Australia murdered 49 innocent human beings and maimed so many dozens more; he was captured alive. His victims are dead. We are dulled and sick.
Our U.S. attention is fixed on what's happening within our borders, but also in the malign world of social media. We aren't as consumed by Europe's and England's problems, when our grievous national problems have dominion in America.
3
Thanks to right-wing lunacy two major western democracies are international jokes. Another vote on Brexit needs to go back to the British people. I think their eyes are open now.
6
To call the abomination that is the EU a "borderless European miracle" is delusional.
And the hubris of the EU in favoring a long extension when the survival of the EU itself is highly questionable would be somewhat amusing, if not for the history of Europe in the 20th century.
It looks to me like this was another Russian disruption operation, like the Trump election.
It seems to have worked just as well for Russia. For America and GB? Not so good.
8
I have a suggestion. We can send you our so-called President who can extend Hadrian's wall to the entire Island. He can Build That Wall!
6
"“deal” (really a fudge postponing all major decisions)"
However much they may be a laughingstock for this situation, they are not also fools too. They know the "deal" is not a deal.
"This didn't work. Nevermind, let's give it up," has not flown in the guise of a "deal."
As the fantasy of Brexit unravels, it would seem inevitable that a new vote on remaining in the European Union be taken. Hopefully more people will vote and overturn the impossible dream of Brexit.
Politically the dysfunctional Conservative Party which started this nonsense should suffer the consequences and be replaced by a renewed Labor Party or a revived Liberal Party that realizes that the UK can only survive economically and progressively as a vital part of Europe. A delusion of Empire and dreams of Britain’s glorious past are not serious policy options. Reality is that London is the financial capital of Europe and that UK’s economy is inextricably tied to Europe’s and that Europe is borderless. The extreme hard right nationalism of too much of the Conservative base, its accommodation by cowardly moderates and the simplistic false promises of Brexiters have been exposed as the unworkable delusions of fools. It is time to face reality and get back to the healing process of returning to Europe. I feel strongly that the Conservative Party and its leaders should be thrown out of office and replaced by leaders committed to reality and to Europe!
5
I do not understand how the Vote on the so-called "deal" can keep being brought back to Parliament, whose procedure is that a vote on a matter can only be held once in a Session unless substanitally different. The Speaker should not allow it to proceed.
4
I live in Canada, the country England saved from the expansionist new USA. Seeing this country unable to set up a way to be a country is almost funny. Sorry.
The answer to so much confusion and contradiction and back again is a new referendum. The tentative debate about Brexit shows that no one is sure a EU separation is the right path, or there would be one in place by now - hard or soft separation. Opportunists like Boris Johnson don’t have the answer either, so replacing PM May is not the solution.
The British public, like their brethren in the US, are still suffering the economic impact of Wall Street’s looting that caused the Great Recession Add to this, the Middle East refugees crisis as the result of the neocon-led Iraqi invasion that displaced millions of people and you have the perfect storm. Charlatans and Putinists like Nigel Farage are dead set on destroying the EU and NATO and using racist, ethnic and religious tropes (against Muslims) to obfuscate the public
4
Mrs. May should revoke article 50, step down and then let others dare to have another referendum. She would become - after some years - a national hero for sacrificing her career to end this utter nonsense.
2
So by voting for an extension, the UK has now handed over control of if and when they may exit the EU to the faceless Brussels bureaucrats. I do hope the irony is not lost on the brexiteers.
1
Absolutely, it should go back to the people! Brexit 1 was borne on the wings of a Lie, fed by foreign interference (Psy-Group, Cambridge Analytica), and perpetuated by feckless domestic ‘yellow press’ greed. Brexit 2 would be a fitting, if belated, correction that proves the value of People Power to the authoritarians (Putin, Xinping) who would have us believe democracy and self-governance is a sham.
4
Any kind of European disunity plays right into The Bear’s hands.
4
I will never forget the comment from a British reader after the election of Trump: “At least we can say ours is the second most stupid thing done this year.”
True. But Brexit hasn’t happened yet.
I believe what we have been witnessing is political opportunism of the most vile and hypocritical sort. All of the posturing, all of the oration has one goal in mind, and that is to remove Theresa May. Once that is achieved, the Opposition (and many in her own party) - who have had plenty of time to digest the dire ramifications of Brexit and no longer support the notion - will somehow ‘see the light’, seek a new referendum, hope that the polls are correct, and gladly (hat in hand with mock deference) ask the EU for forgiveness. Behold the schemers.
41
Oligarchs from Moscow to London to Kansas want weak governments, dysfunctional democracies, weak institutions and corrupt politicians who are easy to buy off and control. Weak, divided citizenry in countries or states, and broken international organizations make it easier for the 1% to rig or game the system. Effective governments that cooperate with each other to serve the people are the worst fear of the greedy, irresponsible rich.
6
Chiantishire. Love that.
2
Brexit will be right up there with the Messiah, the Second Coming, Godot
Half a million British voters die every year. Another half million become eligible to vote for the first time in their lives each year - many of them immigrants who have won that right through being model citizens of the United Kingdom. So, quite literally, the majority that voted for Brexit are literally dead. This is why Brexit was a pathetic and stupid idea from the outset.
It's kind of comic really. I'm an Australian of Scots-Irish descent and that particular diaspora finds great amusement in watching the English systematically destroy their standing in the world they once dominated in a lather of lager and racist garbage. Thanks to immigration you can now buy a meal in England that isn't a sick-making sludge. I guess a lot of the English still prefer deep-fried frozen pizza.
On the day after Brexit I said (I have witnesses) that it will never happen because Parliament won't let it happen because it is simply a really moronic idea. Parliamentarians are probably capable of doing the maths that I did at the start of this comment and many of them must realise that the electorate that voted for Brexit is no longer around to vote for them in the next election.
The worldwide protest of schoolchildren against climate change inaction (which was absolutely wonderful) has been drowned out by Christchurch, but it is beyond argument that the coming generation are not so moronic as their parents. Politicians around the world should take note and bloody wake up to themselves.
4
I dream of a world where we no longer read about, or talk about, Brexit or the Porn Star President in the White House
7
Britain can’t survive without Big Brussels benevolent rule.
1
Heh, heh, heh. The descendants of American revolutionaries telling Brits that the sky will fall if they declare independence from Big Brussels.
What’s wrong with this picture?
Perhaps the other 27 member states of the EU should hold a referendum on whether to keep the UK in the EU or to kick them out?
2
I don't know how many scenes there are in Act IV, but hopefully sufficient to keep Brexit in the news for months to come. The upside of all this is, every time Brexit has a flare up, it tamps down the news with Trump. This way we Yanks get a little breather so to speak.
March on Great Britain, march on.
2
This is their Trump. Funny how “ conservatives “ or “ Tories “ poison everything the touch, eventually. It’s international.
DO NOTHING.
1
The best way to get an extension is to withdraw Article 50. A possible new Article 50 would extend leaving for two years, during which time the UK might come to its senses.
1
A theme running through all of these "populists" movements, is disruption for the sake of disruption, with no clue how to pick up the pieces after the disruption---Britain has it's stupid Brexit and we have our stupid wall. Meanwhile, in real time, we have a long list issues---health care, climate change, wealth inequality, child care, Facebook..I could go on, but, instead we consume ourselves with middle school tantrums.
3
You neglected to mention that the 27 members of the European Union must give their unanimous consent to a UK extension. Only one, perhaps Andorra or Monaco or Lichtenstein has to say no and that kills consent. Pandora's box left hope inside but that was a long time ago.
2
"This will have to go back to the people."
I live in Arizona, far removed from Brexit. But our local NPR station broadcasts the BBC after midnight.
Listening to the Beeb and reading the NYT, I became convinced many, many months ago that another vote should be taken, that the British people had been duped by con artists, much as Americans have been duped by Trump and his GOP.
Maybe I'm just being foolish, after all, I'm so far removed from the action. But a lot of the time it is perspective from very far away that is most needed for rational judgment.
For what it's worth, it must be just a matter of time before Britain votes again, and the vote will be to stay in the EU. It just seems obvious to me at this point.
Theresa May needs to listen, with an open heart, to the conscience of the British people. That is the only viable path that remains.
361
@Blue Moon
This is correct and nicely said, until you get to the final paragraph.
If there's one thing that's obvious, it is that Theresa May has only ambition, no heart, no heart at all, and the conservatives left their conscience in the same oubliette that our Mitch McConnell and his troops left them when they vowed to obstruct Obama, stop Merrick Garland, and not let anything positive come to a vote now.
96
@Blue Moon
May is a lost cause. But as time passes more and more young people will be of voting age and they strongly favor remaining. That's one reason a long extension is likely to snuff out Brexit.
52
@Blue Moon well said.
It is sad that the supposedly great free Nations - Nations with great overall wealth - have allowed themselves to be duped by entities like Trump and the GOP.
That their People have allowed themselves to become so focused on some pet issue of narrow band theology/ideology that the big picture is lost or ignored.
So encapsulated by their tribal instincts that the opportunities of the wider Humanity/World bounce off them.
So shallow that their pride, happiness, and contentment correlate positively to how much others get their eyes poked and not to true noble accomplishments, progress, goodness, generosity, or compassion.
So blind to reality that they confuse enemies with friends and friends with enemies, comrades with adversaries, real opportunities with problems, real problems/truth with propaganda, propaganda/lies with truth.
So enamored of being the victim of "others" that the reality of their privilege and position escapes them - and worse that the root cause of legitimate complaints they may have are the very people they choose to elect!
40
The first referendum was based on very poor information, backed up by shameless propaganda from the leave campaigns and supported by sections of our rabid press. Even then it was very close. Given that we have general elections every 4 - 5 years (indeed there was only 2 years between the ones in 2015 and 2017 with the latter specifically Brexit driven) there is no reason at all why we shouldn’t have another referendum after 3 years. But the main reason is that we now know a lot more about what we stand to lose from leaving, how the process is nowhere near as easy as the elite leavers said it would be and neither do we have the world queuing up to invest in the U.K. or buy our products. Indeed Russia, China and the USA will be waiting like vultures until things get really bad and then pick at our bones.
80
The only outcome we know for sure is Theresa May's promise to change British passports back to blue, a pitiful triumph for the empirists since the EU never demanded red passports for all.
The majority of concrete, real world promises made by brexiteers have turned out to be utter rubbish, so that only esoteric theoretical and likely fictional arguments remain. As Brexit was sold under a pack of lies, it is fitting that the current political misery continues indefinitely.
2
Apathy, mixed with anger, and wrapped around conservative promulgated hatred of "the other" is fueling an epidemic of fascism.
As is Britain, so is Hungary, Italy and the worst of the bunch, the United States. This is a fight for decency and our lives.
No retreat. No surrender. Only when we turn the darkness to day will our children have a chance.
64
Stay in the E.U. Be a major player. Reform the E.U. from within on the contentious issues like internal migration rules. Do this by cancelling (revoking) the Article 50 notification and getting the E.U. to accept the revocation. In due course, if necessary, hold a second national referendum on the issue so that a Remain vote can seal the issue once and for all.
58
@C.L.S.
The E.U. has to accept revocation. What it doesn't have to accept is an extension.
30
It's not possible to develop, invest in, or implement complex plans, be they private or public, in conditions of uncertainty and diminished trust. The costs keep mounting on Cameron's gambit.
17
Brexit was always certified madness: it could only work if the UK would sit next to New Zealand… and even then… Brexit was also a manipulation by the global plutocrats anxious to keep for themselves a giant tax haven… and to avoid further crackdown of the EU against global plutocracy.
Bermuda, a British territory, has just been determined to be a tax haven... by the EU. After arguing a bit, May's government agreed that it was the case. In truth, there are is another dozen of British tax havens; moreover many financial maneuvers can be done in London, and nowhere else. A bit of racism greased Brexit gears, ironically as the UK accepted more non EU migrants than EU migrants.
Paradoxically, it is the suffering which plutocracy caused to them that herded the Brits towards Brexit. In other words, the very fear their jailers fostered, brought the British cattle toward the pen the plutocrats prepared for them.
Now, of course, the European Union has to be made much more democratic. One way to do that would be by passing a Referendum Initiative Citizen law: exactly what the Brexit plebiscite was…. But on non insane subjects. Actually any country in the EU can pass such a law: Brexit itself is the proof. Such referendum law should enable referendum at the city, regional, national, and European level.
The obvious referendum to hold now in the UK would be a THIRD EU referendum (one in the 1970s enabled the UK to become a member of the EU… then under a different name, same idea).
8
Not sure that’s transference. Projection?
Make Great Britain Great Again by rejecting the world and an important role in it? Nonsense.
More democracy not less. Let the people vote again now that they see Brexit for what it is—a bad idea.
13
When the Brexit issue is resolved (in whatever way) and Britain tries to put the fragments of itself back together again, it can help itself enormously by establishing one fundamental, constitutional rule: anyone running for any election whatsoever must have gone to a state school.
If that sounds extreme, note that it's no more extreme than the current state of affairs in the UK (and, for that matter, in the US): The "public school" (so called in the UK--"private school" in the US) prats who are exclusively the ones in power have spent years treating the British populace like trash and taking everything for themselves.
As much as I personally hate the idea of exit from the EU, the one positive is that the smug grins are daily being wiped off the faces of the "Hooray-Henrys" as they see their potential for even more riches disappearing across the Channel. They've brought this disaster on their arrogant, greedy selves.
Another benefit is that there would immediately be massive investment in state schools. (If seizing the reins of power means I have to send my kid to a state school, then all of a sudden I am going to pay very close attention to the quality of education provided in such a school, aren't I.) As it is, those in power in Britain have no, zero, zilch, diddly-squat interest in or reason to invest in state education systems, a fact that only perpetuates the problem--pretty much all problems, actually, given the central role education plays in, well, everything.
14
Brexit is the best current paradigm, one of many, of the illusions and delusions that limit and distort the biologically inherent perceptions of our species and threaten to end its brief life on this planet.
1
I, for one, cannot wait for the no-deal Brexit to actually happen. The death watch for a now-irrelevant nation is so exciting, and about the only thing that Britain had had to offer the world in such a long time.
8
Brexit should have gone back to the people when the "deal" vs. "no deal" argument first started. A parliamentary democracy cannot faithfully execute a plebiscite directive without proper clarification. In other words: "Whatever did you mean by 'exit'? The British Parliament could use a bit more information."
Send the vote back to the people but add a few more boxes to the ballot this time.
8
Roger, you state the case for a second vote so clearly and succinctly. It just boggles my mind that the MPs with the power to make it happen apparently can’t see it.
8
While it’s true Brexit is a disaster at the moment...It’s five to ten years from now when we’ll be able to truly assess the merits of Brexit...
Hand wringing from foreign observers doesn’t really mean that much...
Although it is amusing to poke fun at these British politicians...
1
I think we have reached the point in this fool’s dream called Brexit where a small majority of Britons want to stay in the EU and a growing majority of citizens the other 27 EU member states want them out. Enough is enough. After 40 years of Europe bashing and whining the Brits better leave. Those that refuse to grow up need to be left alone in the world to find out what they want and loose some illusions on the way to adulthood.
11
One good thing has come from Brexit. Roger Cohen’s commentary. It’s a delight.
7
Ah yes, Great Britain. An island nation with an overly inflated sense of itself. An island that thru luck, circumstance and yes, sometimes, sheer fortitude, built the first truly global empire ever seen by history. An empire that has long sense crumbled though its privileged citizenry continue to believe otherwise.
Belief is always the enemy of reason. So we witness this delusional circus that is Brexit; all fomented by a subset of British people who cannot accept that their time has passed them by, and who further fail to realize that their ultimate strength now lies in uniting with the greater whole that is the EU.
As an American I look upon all of it with a bit of bemusement, but its levied by the acknowledgment that to be critical in all of this is to be so from within a sky high crystalline castle of Trumpian design. We, too, carry delusions don't we? So I shan't throw stones. Both sides of "the pond" are a bit mad these days aren't we? So it goes I suppose.
John~
American Net'Zen
14
"This is what happens when English public school boys, nostalgic for Empire.." But those public school boys knew that they could get the votes of a lot of 60+ year olds who went to secondary moderns or grammar schools. Those, like me, left school at 15 or 16, at best with a handful of O levels. They now see their little England invaded by eastern Europeans with names that cannot be pronounced in English. Coming from fenland I have many old school friends who are true blue Tories and who overwhelming voted for Brexit. Even the ones who live half a year in the English ghettos on the Iberian coasts. But don't worry, if the UK economy crashes they will still blame those Europeans, since they have never accepted that the UK has any ties to Europe. So sad, but always look on the bright side, Nigel Farage will be on the dole since he will no longer have his seat in the European parliament. Assuming, of course, that the Tories will keep any sort of social safety net.
9
Such a colossal waste of time, money and emotion. The British establishment was never going to allow Brexit, even if it is approved in a second referendum. Sadly delusional, much like the USA where a majority wants to control immigration but that will never happen either. But both exercises can be highly educational for both populations to understand the power structures in their countries.
2
"This is what happens when English public school boys, nostalgic for Empire, dream up a scheme for the resurrection of British glory"
And so too we can see what happens when American schoolboys, nostalgic for American glory as frontiersmen resurrect a rose colored vision of the American supremacy enjoyed following World War II and call it "Make America Great Again".
211
After the Brexit deal debacle the only sensible way left for the British government is to seek extension of the withdrawal deadline, March 29,and prepare for a second referendum.
5
At least in the US we have a four year maximum period of reversing our voting disaster of 2016. I fully realize I have no idea how UK politics work, but it seems to me that a re-vote on the Brexit issue should be a non-brainer. Who controls the nationwide vote ability?
As an American, I wait for the British wealthy to get tired of waiting in the "commoner" line for passport control. Maybe an another Hadrian's wall this time on the Irish island? That would be fun for all.
3
i appreciate mr. cohen's classical reference, as all shakespeare's best tragedies go the full five acts. but this isn't "King Lear," and we're not anywhere near the end. this is only the end of the prologue -- a spate of political stichomythia in the satyr play before the real tragedy mounts its chorus.
what, go to "the people"? the people are what got britain into this mess in the first place. besides -- key point -- a referendum takes the brexit issue out of the hands of the politicians, who are milking it for everything it is worth to their selfie careerism.
it's striking, really, how intelligent commentators like mr. cohen still grasp issues with the tweezers of optimistic particularity, instead of stepping back and looking at the big picture: careerist politicians, thuggish strongmen, fragmenting cultures, fracturing infrastructure, rich flouting the rule of law and the rest reaching for fanaticism, financial chicanery, the spalling rot of institutional corruption, the media amplification of uninformed and superstitious opinion, climate change rolling onward -- ineptitude at the top and fanatical panic at the bottom.
don't be surprised if things get worse, everywhere. that's what happens when they spin out of control.
4
The big question to be ask is where are Boris Johnson and all the other people whom were promising that everything will be just fine? There are nowhere to be seen. No solution or how to do the Brexit are proposed by them. Their only solution to the deal proposed by the Prime Minister May is to say no. But for a positive solution or way to do Brexit do not ask Boris Johnson and all. This is just a waste of time.
13
" Brexit could be Britain’s Godot." Brilliant comparison! Brexit was a self-delusion from the very beginning and underhandedly presented by those two (among others) farcical characters; Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Where are they now? Already tossed onto the dirt heap of history.
9
How could an indefinite exit happen? Isn't the critique of the May deal that it has an indefinite exit?
1
Rule by referendum is always a bad idea.
Some people voted leave just to see what would happen.
22
Indefinite extension is likely what May wanted all along - without having to say it.
3
The whole mess is a very good lesson about why referendums are a bad idea in a representative democracy. The people can be lied to and offered pie in the sky by ideologues pushing for their idea, no matter how fringe or bad. Only later do the people learn that they've been sold a bill of goods.
The underlying problem here was a lack of leadership. The assumption was that the people would vote to remain tamping down the ideologues (anti-immigrant crowd among others) voice. Instead, the campaign convinced just enough people that exit was a good idea to win the day. Instead of leading, the gov't has spent the last almost 3 years following the mob into an impossibly complicated scheme with no easy answers and no winners. They're now up a blind alley of their own making.
36
"Personally, I think an indefinite extension might be the solution lurking in the long grass. That way Britain could remain in the European Union forever while professing to want to leave."
Roger Cohen, your wry view of the Brexit disaster actually had me chuckling, were it not for the fact that this disaster is all too real.
This is what happens when you plan a party and nobody shows up, or not, as the case may be.
It's also what happens when leaders realizes that what the people voted for can't be easily achieved, if at all.
You've written extensively and coherently on the disconnect between a mendacious referendum and the feasibility of actually carrying that out.
The longer May is steering this ship, the more chaos there's been. She should acknowledge her role in perpetuating the farce that voters spoke loudly and clearly.
They spoke loudly alright, but not clearly, as the full consequences of leaving the EU were never made clear until the wrangling began in Westminster.
27
@ChristineMcM My husband and I had an interesting conversation with a Brit in 2016 just before their Brexit vote. He said he started a company in Europe and made a lot of money from it. Now that he was retiring, he was going to vote for Brexit. I still don't understand why he wanted to stab the system that made him so much money in the back, oh well.
23
Despite the anger or frustration that Trump/Brexit voters expressed at the polls, things were the way they were for a reason. Losing national identity, to the extent that the U.S. and Britain lost any identity is a by product of the shrinking world. Perhaps instead of voting for Brexit, England should have outlawed air travel, or closed off the 'Chunnel'. Perhaps America should outlaw farm electrification and harvesting machinery. That would put everyone back to work, Right? things were the way they were because we actually wanted them that way.
21
@Richard Mclaughlin - it's not a story about intended changes. it's about unintended consequences.
this is what happens when the world becomes too complex: the consequences outrun all intentions -- good, bad or capricious.
I disagree that Brexit is necessarily a bad idea. It depends on how the UK embraces it. If it is used to make the UK a more competitive economy, it could valuable. Being within the productive safe zone of the EU is obviously the easy way but not necessarily the best in the long-term. Deals to delay or thwart Brexit will only lead to a backlash and longterm political instability.
3
By far, holding a second referendum makes most sense. The first one was based on lies and misinformation, presumably aided by the Russians, and that alone should be reason to put it for another vote.
However, if Parliament can't come to its senses, the Queen should. After all, she has the authority to ignore or overrule ministerial advice in "grave constitutional crisis", which this surely is. She even has the power to create Lords and form new governments. Queen Save the UK. Godspeed.
31
I’m no fan of Brexit. But I am a democrat. You are seriously suggesting that a hereditary monarch should override the will of the people as expressed in a referendum and Parliament?
4
@David
I'm no fan of the Monarchy, however, as long as they have it, and most appear to support it, might as well use it. Incidentally, I'm a democrat too, but I'm not naive enough to think the U.S. has a democracy. Unelected special interests rule us.
20
@R1NA There were plenty of lies on both sides. Where is the predicted economic ruin that Remain brought up at every opportunity?
2
Time to let Britain go. One way or the other. I hope the EU doesnt agree to any extension, short or long. Britain should leave with a deal or without one. The EU needs to move on. Britain needs to move on. They both will be fine and, if there are any problems - inevitably- solve them. I wish Britain had voted to stay, but British people voted with a majority to leave. Let Britain go and wish her well!
11
Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. Scotland voted to remain in the EU. It was England and Wales that decided to leave the EU. I'm curious to see if, in the next decade (few years?) Northern Ireland and/or Scotland decide to leave the UK and re-join the EU. What would this look like?
31
@Jay then what remains of the UK would be a much diminished player on the world stage.
4
Brittain should be negotiating to stay in the EU, not leave. Disunion in Europe has been thoroughly tried, over centuries, to disastrous consequences. Whatever the grievances, now and in the future, agreement among the EU members should be the goal, not disunion.
Britain may be an island, but its fate is closely tied to Europe’s.
17
The problem if UK stays for a long period is that it will stall the decision process and basically create myriads of problems by foot-dragging at every corner.
7
The EU seems to have already gone through the stages of disbelief, anger, grief and acceptance, while the UK still cannot make up its mind. The melodrama is turning into a farce.
16
The idea that Brexit is a public schoolboy´s innocent fantasy drawn up ¨on the playing fields of Eton¨ is to lend a comic touch to something that is actually far more sinister. Not enough attention has been payed to the role of foreign influences in both the financing and publicising of the campaign for Brexit. Although serious journalism has begun to expose the influence of dark money and online propaganda in the referendum, the greater scandal is how complicit many members of the establishment were in the subversion of British democracy. This as not accidental. The same people who welcome Russian oligarchs to buy the ritziest addresses in London, also foment hostility against defenceless immigrants. Boris is a name that now commands as much admiration in right wing British circles as it does in Moscow.
108
This will not go back to the people because the Brexit supporters in parliment won't let it happen. As much as they dislike May's deal, they would prefer it to no-exit. And they know that remain will win if the Brexit fiasco does go back to the people.
10
@Bill B why not? Our trump disaster is going back to the people, not soon enough, but eventually we will fix our mistake, why not Britain?
2
Who is left though? The farce of May's three votes makes that point. All this trouble to let the conservatives make the decision, and yet no one wants the government's deal. Either May stabbed Brexit in the back on purpose with these terrible closed negotiations or she's a terrible loser. In the first case, you'll never win, in the second case, you can't win. Hard Brexit, hard border in the Irish Sea, conservatives blamed for a generation or more.
The Irish question sinks you, now and forever. It has to be hard Brexit, hard borders. There is no technological magic that will conjure up a hard, soft border and conservatives wouldn't accept it anyway. They are nominally in power after all, even if the exercise of that power appears purely theoretical at this point.
1
Mr Cohen’s oversimplication is a repeat of his earlier diatribes.
Stripped of anti-British sentiment and old fashioned chip on teh shoulder commentary about privately educated people, his position comes down to saying Brexit is a bad idea.
Maybe so. But like it or not it is an exercise in democracy. Where I live, and last time I looked the US and the UK, the people have a say. They may be right, they may be wrong, but ina. Democracy it doesn’t ultimately matter.
And the proposition that Brexit is some aberrant indulgence just ignores the fact of Article 50.
I am a long, long way away. But my sense is that the clear majority who voted for Brexit don’t care about whether there is a deal or not. They just want an accountable parliament.
2
@Martin Scott "An exercise in democracy" undermined by one campaign's evading spending limits by using untraceable (so far) financing, personal data theft, targeted disinformation on social media, and interference by foreign actors, the same "winning" combo as characterized the Trump campaign, for which Brexit was the out-of-town tryout.
The result is that this campaign was referred to the police by the UK's Electoral Commission for possible criminal charges (an investigation proceeding at a snail's pace).
May's own solicitor said that if the Referendum had been binding instead of advisory, the result would have been thrown out due to illegalities, and both the EU Parliament and the US House Intelligence Committee have said there was clear evidence of Russian interference in the election.
"An exercise in corrupted democracy" would be more like it. You're right -- you are a long way away.
30
@Martin Scott
Whether the "clear majority" of 37% who voted for Brexit (52% out of a 72% turnout) fully understood what they were voting for is debatable. Some of the chief arguments presented to public turned out to be blatant fabrications, as are the interpretations of what Brexit even means (other than "Brexit"). Mind you, the UK does not have a written constitution, and referenda are not binding; according to some legal minds, they may not even be constitutional. That said, the 2016 referendum was in fact not the first referendum on the issue but rather the second: in 1975 the British already voted, by two-third majority, to remain in the EC (the EU's predecessor). So, if the UK has already had two referenda on the issue, why not a third one? Wouldn't that be even more democratic? Fun thing, accountability...
21
I watched the House of Commons on Wednesday with amazement and a sense of dread. Utter chaos and a day wasted on whether the UK wanted to leave the EU without a deal (hard Brexit). At the end of the day they voted that the UK didn't want hard Brexit, to which the EU governance replied, "That's like the Titanic voting for the iceberg to move."
Even at this late date the UK is oblivious to its fate if they fail to act; the options left is vote for delayed Brexit, new referendum, take the existing deal. There's too much detail to cover here, but suffice it to say next week will truly be the tell.
There's two lines of verse from Pink Floyd that occurred to me this week while watching Parliament:
"Would you like to see Brittania rule again, my friend? All you have to do is follow the worms."
Indeed.
15
It is not “insanity” to hold the view that a country may not want to remain within a corrupt, anti democratic bloc that perpetuates economic policies which needlessly harm millions of people. Calling a reasonable viewpoint “insane” is part of the reason why the politics of the UK and US are in such a mess. There are many things on which it is acceptable to agree to disagree; this is one.
That is not, however, to excuse the embarrassing and shambolic fiasco being perpetuated by 650 muppets in the House of Commons, none of whom apparently possesses an ounce of integrity, leadership or common sense. The craven self-interest and disregard for consequences shown by almost every British politician over the past three years is shameful.
A legislature with the best interests of the nation at heart would long ago have taken control of proceedings, delayed Brexit and negotiated an orderly exit as, for example, a member of EFTA. That it has not should disqualify the entire membership of the Commons from holding public office again.
4
A corrupt anti- democratic block? You are talking about the EU which is the most enlightened polity in world history are you?
Maybe America should take its own advice and have a second referendum on whether the Declaration of Independence from Great Britain should be declared null and void or not.
1
Cohen simply assumes the Remain vote would win a second referendum even though many of the polls are showing the same numbers as the polls in the first referendum, which also showed Remain would win but didn't account for the margin of error.
I can't imagine the Brits ever switching from the pound to the Euro. Brits know that will be on the table in Brussels if they vote Remain because in the last year the two EU winners, Germany and France, have been promoting integration of all EU members with the Euro. Remember the East European EU members all promised one day to meet the Euro budget criteria and switch their currencies to the Euro, and none have done it, and they never will. Nor will Denmark and Sweden. Does anyone believe that had Greece kept the drachma that they would be in multi-generational hock to Germany, I mean the Central European Bank? So much for the EU miracle. Poland et al know better than to make that mstake.
If the EU was such a great idea for all of its members, there wouldn't be a refusal to change to the Euro among a significant number of its members. More important, there wouldn't be such a striking division among the population in every EU country, and there wouldn't be the rise and establishment of such strong right wing parties in reaction across all of Europe. Europeans should be able to creatively do a do-over of customs union without the weight of political centralization.
4
@Maura3 The Euro is an afterthought after the financial crisis of the Great Recession. Great Britain was fine without the Euro, which is off the table no matter what you believe.
5
@Maurie Beck
Agree, it is off the table now, but it is certainly not off the mind of Macron. Brits know that. He pitched his "Eurovision" relentlessly all year in speech after speech. The German Conservatives pushed back. Once Merkel is out of her Germany and EU leadership roles in 2021, Macron will bid to lead the EU and will likely get that job if he survives in France politically.
If he survives....Well who knows. He is stumbling with the ongoing street protests and Marine LePen's "new" National Rally Party (dropped the word Front) is now running dead even with Macron's party (En Marche) for the EU Parliament elections.
Why does any of what is going on politically in Europe demonstrate a healthy EU?
There will be no second referendum unless the UK is prepared for an infinite series of them. You call the first into question, they'll all be open to question.
The EU will not grant an indefinite extension to the UK. EU leadership has enough problems without an unfinished divorce hanging over it. That leadership also is in no mood to make things easier for the UK, which has cost the bloc considerable time, energy and money preparing for the breakup. Holding the UK's feet to the fire (that it set) will serve as a useful warning to other members who might consider leaving.
That Britain can't even find consensus on whether to leave, much less on how, is unfortunate but no action by the EU will change that. As far at the EU is concerned the UK has made its bed and will have to sleep in it.
The EU, if it's sufficiently skeptical of May's motives and abilities, might reject even a short extension of the exit date. Hardliners could get their dearest wish, a no-deal Brexit, Parliament's note notwithstanding.
The UK may emerge from this agonizing fiasco stronger than before, though I doubt it. No matter what happens, history will not have kind words for its political leaders during this period.
11
If you think about the hard times EU had negociating with UK during these last decades, I hope EU will not allow any extension for Brexit. If MPs doesn't know what they want, a lot of european citizens knows very well what they want: GET OUT!
11
The border less miracle. Nicely said.
What tends to be forgotten is that the European Union is first and foremost a project of peace. And - regardless of it's shortcomings - it has delivered better than anyone could ever hope for in that regard.
231
@_Flin_This is what is so discouraging about the arguments around Brexit- It's seventy years since the last World War, so only those who were children then actually remember it. The peace that has followed, as more countries join the EU, is remarkable, precious and possibly fragile. As an American-born person, I resent the heedlessness of those who would endanger this, having forgotten that they themselves could not have 'won' the war without thousands who were 'over paid, over sexed and over here.' And forever in Europe, as many white crosses will testify. As a person who has lived in the Irish Republic for many years, I am dismayed at the disregard of the impact of their decisions - their casual ignorance of this - on their close neighbours and indeed, in the case of the North of Ireland and Gibraltar, their own constituents.
34
I think it might benefit the EU to enforce the March 29th deadline and say farewell to the UK. After all, look at the turmoil and disruption the Brits have caused the EU and their contribution to the rise of extremists with similar plans in other member countries. When the British economy suddenly shrinks a catastrophic ten percent, banking and finance functions flock to Frankfurt and utter chaos ensues, there will then be another referendum within a year's time, with overwhelming support to rejoin the EU. This lesson will show everyone the tremendous benefits that the EU provides to its member countries and provide the solidarity the EU is presently lacking for many years to come.
79
@Rich D That is true if the EU will allow them to re-join.
7
Britain (not the UK) has been riding on the fumes of its one time cultural supremacy, the last vestiges of its lost empire, since the sixties. Beatlemania and Carnaby Street made it briefly relevant again, the dignified monarchy of Queen Elizabeth allowed it a sense of durability, even dignity beyond anything she merited for her history of foreign adventurism and haughty indifference to the misery of peoples she brutally colonized. Now Britain finds herself humbled in the way a difficult guest is humbled - with barely a murmur of protest from anyone upon her departure from the world stage.
22
Mr. Cohen may think that it is inevitable, and a second referendum seems extremely sensible to me. However the stories I've read from England all say that, for various political reasons, there's virtually no chance of a second referendum actually happening.
5
Much of this mess started with the post-crisis fantasy that austerity was the cure for a deep recession triggered by the banks. Countries in the Euro that were not Germany really didn't have a choice - the Germans really controlled the European Central Bank and its rules on deficits, together with a currency that was too strong for their good.
In Britain, austerity was a pure own-goal. They had an independent currency and could have done what was needed to take the edge off the Great Recession. But Brown and Cameron both decided to kneel at the altar of budget deficits and offered up the English countryside at a sacrificial offering. The English resentment surely has component of bigotry, but it was worsened by true economic hardship inflicted by their own government.
58
@Cfiverson excellent point. Austerity has ravaged communities throughout the country, and the poor deluded souls reacted the same way as did their ex-colonist brethren in November 2016.
28
What an absolutely wonderful photo! Thank you.
3
In further thinking about Brexit, the similarities to the thinking of the leavers and the Trumpists here in our equally divided America, is striking.
It's as if the 40%ters of our electorate were engaging in some kind of sadomasocistic selfharm, when they chose the Trump/Pence/Republican house of pain to be their Masters.
Something is truly amiss here on our troubled planet, and I'm convinced more than ever, as I near 70 years alive, that empathy has swarmed and left humanity soulless.
66
Except that in the USA the majority of ‘the people’ did NOT vote for Trump but in Britain the majority of The people DID vote to leave.
13
@Catherine Yes, but. Less than 40% of the eligible voting population voted in the referendum. Then you consider the illegal Russian interference in the Leave campaign, and it's clear that the 51-49 "majority" you mention is questionable at best.
30
The common element is the incitement by Putin's propaganda onslaught that has undermined entire nations!
7
With the long extension, Brexit is dead.
Brexit will still be proclaimed as the official, long-term target. But it will never happen. The long extension will be prolonged again and again, and after some time, Brexit will be buried calmly and secretly.
The long extension is actually a way to repeal Brexit in a face-saving manner.
43
@Carsten Neumann
The EU should not allow that to happen. Nigel and Boris should have to face the logical consequences of their illogical campaign. Ditto for those who cheer them on.
16
@Elizabeth Not fair to punish the 16 million who didn't vote for self-harm on a national scale and those 3 years of children now eligible to vote for their future.
16
I think you are correct, ‘temporary backstop’ notwithstanding.
There is a ‘temporary’ (metal, erector-set style) bridge at the Hogarth roundabout in London, erected around the time of WWII.
It is still there, temporarily of course. There appear to be no plans to replace it.
8
“Personally, I think an indefinite extension might be the solution lurking in the long grass. That way Britain could remain in the European Union forever while professing to want to leave. Brexit could be Britain’s Godot. Everyone would be happy.”
Not quite.
It would be like a partner in a marriage announcing they intend to divorce in the future but until then expecting everything to continue as if It will never happen. Fat chance.
What would happen is that the U.K., as is the situation now, would not be allowed to participate in E.U. decisions but would still have all their E.U. obligations.
Then there is the issue of organizations wanting E.U. trade benefits justifying building or expanding or staying in the UK. No point in that anymore.
By avoiding decision the U.K. would simply confirm, if confirmation is necessary anymore, that the U.K. is no longer a serious country requiring any special consideration.
34
After almost 3 years of political chess it's time for a general election with a re-do referendum. I would hope that by now Brits have a better idea of the implications.
39
@Marcello Di Giulio
Haven't most Brits always favored the REMAIN option?!?
1
Without a second referendum, there will always be the suspicion that the first was a marketing con trick. Revoking EU citizenship is too large a step to take without reconfirming the now-better informed opinion of the people. And the fact that the Labour party did not support that amendment on Thursday will be seen as their worst error unless it is repaired.
19
@Gerard -- Whoever loses the second will then want a third, saying many of the same things.
6
@Gerard
But the first referendum WAS a marketing con trick perpetrated by David Cameron.
"... English public [meaning private] school boys, nostalgic for Empire, dream up a scheme for the resurrection of British glory ..."
"Delusion is the mother of debacle."
"All the parliamentary wrangling has amounted to an attempt to turn fantasy into reality ..."
"What’s real is that Britain is better off with more than a half-billion other people in the borderless European miracle that is the union."
And there you have it.
I have never witnessed a more suicidal political wish than that exhibited by the Leavers, all based on xenophobic fears that the Other might move in next door, abetted by interference by Putin and the same operatives that were in action in the US 2016 elections--and of course involving Johnson, Farage, et.al.
184
@Leading Edge Boomer -- "the borderless European miracle that is the union" is an opinion not shared by the majority who voted last time. It is a view of the EU as unquestioned good, that is just not shared by all.
That is the underlying problem. The opinion of the EU is deeply unsettled.
Those who dislike it won't just give up and declare it grand and a true miracle.
6
@Mark Thomason
No one, anywhere, says the EU is unquestioned good. That's one advantage the Brexiteers have: they can treat it as unquestioned bad, because their whole case is lies. The remainers have to deal with reality, which is more difficult.
As a fellow American, doesn't this seem familiar?
14
@Leading Edge Boomer
The Leave faction is the Conservative party is the same as Bertie Wooster if Jeeves left his employment.
5
A long extension would help bring an end to this madness. Each day more leave voters die. Each day more remain voters reach voting age. Still, one can't rule out mischief from some of the EU countries on the extension, aided and abetted by the leavers (not to mention other more sinister players).
14
I love Roger Cohen's columns but disagree with "The Brexit vote of 2016 was a fantasy"
It is important to understand what drove Brexit
When the EU was enlarged to include Poland (wages 1/4 of France), Bulgaria (yet lower) , Romania (yet lower) factories closed in high wage EU countries (UK, France) and moved East. A famous case study is that of the Whirlpool factory in Amiens , (labour cost Euro 35) moving to Poland (Euro 7.80) that nearly derailed the campaign of Mr. Macron.
That is, wages moved to the EU average. Wages fell (in real term) in high wage countries and rose in low wage countries. Welcome in Poland (that however turned less democratic it was not welcome by the working population in Western Europe.
Simultaneously, under the EU policy of free movement, Polish plumbers willing to work for less , moved to London, putting British plumbers out of work. This was welcome by the British elite, that could their plumbing in their Victorian Townhouse repaired cheaper , but not by British plumbers.
Eventually, the lower middle class revolted . But the fault lies not with the lower middle class. The fault lies with the educated elite that should have foreseen the political consequences and installed a system of transfer payments from the elites (winners) to workers that lost good jobs
That a) would have helped UK workers and farmers, and b) would have lessened the increasing inequality that lies at the bottom of it all.
138
@Woof From what I've read in the NYT, your point about the fear rural Brits have about being displaced by Polish workers is accurate and valid. Perhaps Roger Cohen should read his own newspaper.
One thing his column does is demonstrate the danger that underlies today's political polarization—Only THIS side v THAT side is expressed, over and over again. The nuances of reality and ACTUAL grievances are lost in the debate. But they don't go away. They just continue to simmer and boil.
25
@Woof and Elizabeth
Nevertheless, it's true that Brexit was sold as a miracle cure like snake oil. The funny thing is that the ailment was Tory austerity, not EU anything.
59
@Woof
All true, and if not dealt with in a fair and equitable manner, this is likely to tear the entire Union apart.
Spain is suffering; Italy is in terrible shape, and we all know what is going on in France.
The hardcore attitude of the northern tier nations will need to measurably soften if the EU is to survive, otherwise ten years from now it will not exist.
7
Putin is getting a great return on his propaganda investment. Paying people to spread pro-Brexit propaganda has advanced Russia's cause by distracting and weakening the West and our alliances.
200
Agreed! Foolish Britain's pain is Putin's gain. The idiots believed Putin's Brexit PROPAGANDA.
7
It seems to me that Northern Ireland has become the tail that wags the dog. I doubt that the EU will let it remain part of the UK AND at the same time let it retain the benefits of EU membership if the UK leaves.
Britain's special place in the world really ended with WWI, which took a heavy toll on most of Europe in terms of soldiers and civilians killed and wealth destroyed. The pound should have dropped more vs. the US$ than it did during the interwar period but the British government made an effort to prop it up to maintain its role as a world reserve currency.
8
"It’s chaos out there with two weeks to go until the March 29 deadline for Britain to leave the European Union. This is what happens when English public school boys, nostalgic for Empire, dream up a scheme for the resurrection of British glory based on foisting every little-England frustration on their neighbors across the Channel who started or lost the war."
What about all those US school boys and girls, nostalgic for the country that LBJ ruined with all his progressive legislation, who dreamt up an even worse scheme than Brexit--Donald Trump?
43
@James Ricciardi
Cute! The sarcasm didn't hit me for a moment.
2
"If her deal finally dies an irrevocable death, May will have to negotiate an extension with the European Union."
Serious question - at this point, why would the European Union agree to an extension? It seems pretty unlikely, given the past months' worth of evidence, that kicking the can down the road isn't going to produce the fantastical "deal" that will please all parties. And as much as Remainers like to think otherwise, I don't think Parliament is going to call for a second referendum - the stirrings for a second vote are little more than a murmur.
So again, why wouldn't Europe just get on with it?
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The collective group of politicos of the EU have somehow managed to achieve a greater level of wisdom than that of the leaders of the of the UK where it matters the most- economic vitality. The UK must yield to the EU. Astonishing, but true.
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@Vin
Why would the EU agree to an extension? Because it's in their interest. If they let one member leave others may try to follow. They also know that Russia would like to see the EU disintegrate. The latter may also be a reason an extension won't happen. An extension has to be agreed to unanimously by all members; it only needs Putin to nobble one EU member for it to fail.
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@PJ Actually the British just don't know what they want. Before any discussion on the matter begins the PM plans to go through the motions and make it clear that Brexit is only an option. It won't go any further without far more public support. It demands time. Are the proponents of Brexit ready to make the effort?
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At this point it's hard not to want those in Northern Ireland and provincial England who voted for Brexit to experience exactly what they've wrought.
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@Blair As a British expat, I agree. The Leavers deserve what's coming to them. The problem is the rest of us suffer too, along with a cohort of young people who were too young to vote in 2016.
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@Jacinta Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to remain in the EU. I wonder if they'll decide to leave the UK in the next decade (few years?) and re-join the EU?
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@Blair Why blame Northern Ireland? Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU!
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There is one way Brexit has been good for the EU. It has forged a remarkable unity in their dealings with the UK. They agreed to have one team do all the work. In looking for an extension however the UK would be dealing with 27 countries. All would have to agree. It seems that some are unenthusiastic, seeing the Brexit fixation as a block to dealing with other problems. Some are just totally fed up with the UK's inability to agree on anything and just want an end. It's fine to talk of a long extension but how many European leaders want to have Brexit as the number one item on the agenda into 2020 and beyond. It only takes one country to block an extension. Wouldn't this be a chance for Spain to agree only if the UK reopens Gibralter negotiations?
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@Michael Feely I think the EU Council can agree a time-limited extension.
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People seem to forget that Britain only reluctantly joined the rest of Europe in what became the EU. They did it because they had no choice. Their economy was in shambles and not doing well at recovering from World War II. My Dutch mother always expressed contempt for British arrogance about its special place in the world. They just could not get over losing their empire. The Brexit saga shows that many Tories have learned very little over the decades. I agree that the most likely outcome is Britain just never quite leaving until an election or another referendum occurs. By then there will have been enough damage to the British economy to get a clear majority to understand the value of an integrated market. Perhaps they will not have to learn this lesson a third time.
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@JSon
Beautiful.
The British are getting the chaos they deserve. But typically, they don't even realize it as they muddle along.
The same will come to America soon for having elected Trump. We may not be able to avoid the chaos we deserve.
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@JSon Evidently your Dutch mother never heard of Dunkirk. If not for "British arrogance", your mother may have become your German mother.
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