There are many reasons Beto nearly won the Senate race, one was the influx of Californians to Texas when their jobs were relocated here, another was the Hispanic vote for obvious reasons. Finally people like myself that are loyal democrats and feel like we are always wasting our votes every election in Texas, we listened to Beto and he was the obvious choice. That was for Senate, the presidency for myself is another playing level. I want to see a candidate going at this like they were going on a job interview, dress the part, suit and tie, pantsuit, dress whatever along as it's professional, don't curse, tell me why you want this job and why we would want to hire you. Act presidential, what are you going to do to unite us and let the world know that we are back and ready to lead in a strong, compassionate , mature way, that we have strong ethics that starts at the top .
29
Well you failed to report that Ted Cruz made some enemies among conservatives because of his antics at the Republican convention. In addition, Cruz is not personally very popular, yet still won. You also fail to account for the move to the hard left of the Democratic House..This will not bode well for Democrats in a nationalized election in Texas - regardless of the demographics. Trump will win Texas... easily.
13
Why is the world so divided, scandal upon scandal, this one shamed after another? God's prolonged spiritual judgment has begun. Christ has come as a thief to those unaware. Man has been given up to his sin and the last day is rapidly approaching. For more info check E Bible Fellowship.
2
It was only close because people loathe Ted Cruz. Really.
30
I perceive O'Rourke as a 2nd rate version of John Edwards. Both men are glib, superficial, and yes, very cute, with minimal accomplishments. Edwards was better at faking it that he was presidential material.
15
I am always amazed that progressives don't register the fact that if you reached deep inside of the Trumpster; grasped his liver and pulled him inside out; voila - you have Beto.
Both are equally unsuited to run anything more complex than a hot-dog stand - for different reasons - but with the same outcome.
10
If Dems can flip Texas in 2020, they would win the White House without having to flip any other states that voted Trump in 2016.
Contesting the state should be a no-brainer.
25
You are mining "fool's gold." Beto did as well as he did as much because of the dislike of Cruz by establishment Republicans as anything else. Had he been running against John Cornin, he would have lost by well over 10 points.
15
@Red Blazer
As a former long-time Bay Area resident and current 22+ years in Texas, I have to respectfully disagree with your take. As much as Ted Cruz is despised nationally, he still has many loyal supporters in Texas (especially in the plethora of rural counties that are "old" and all around 95% white). Most people who voted for O'Rourke, including myself, did so because we supported his policy agenda and vision regardless of any animosity towards Mr. Cruz.
Also, John Cornyn is not as popular here as you think, which is why many O'Rourke supporters wanted him to challenge Cornyn for his Senate seat. John Cornyn is painfully out of touch with the challenges the average Texan faces and he has neither a coherent strategy nor any progressive policy proposals except to trot out the old, white conservative agenda. Hopefully a strong Democratic challenger will emerge in the coming months.
52
@George: By no means count Beto out from challenging Cornyn given that he's not going to win the presidential nomination. If he pulls out of the race by April of next year he can still mount a strong challenge to Cornyn.
14
@Red Blazer. That's easy for you to say because that scenario did not play out. So you can just make stuff up out of thin air.
6
Texas is not the only state where turning out young and Hispanic voters can make a difference. We in SC are looking at the same issues, even though we are nowhere close to flipping our blood-red state to blue.
While older people vote more often and more reliably, younger and Hispanic voters make up an increasingly large share of the population here. They tend to lean toward Democrats. Therefore, we need to get them onboard.
19
How can you write such an exhaustive analysis of the 2018 TX Senate race results without ONCE mentioning campaign spending? Beto outspent Cruz nearly 2-to1 ($80m vs $45m). THAT had a LOT to do with the race, don’t you think?
18
@Bill C Beto also outraised Cruz 2 to 1, with no money from PACs and far more small-dollar donations.
29
Interesting that the rural folk, who benefit from the work of liberals (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the ACA), vote for their oligarchical enemies the Republicans. I wonder if that will change. Fairly often I encounter these rural Republicans socially and they express their hatred and contempt for 'liberals' like myself (I'm not a liberal, I'm a democratic socialist, but whatever). I don't take the bait, and if they are too ignorant to recognize reality I am not going to waste my time discussing the matter with them. It is strange though; one does not need to swallow right-wing propaganda when it is presented to them. I assume they are unconscious. Progressives will just need to show up at the polls and overwhelm these people at the ballot box, if the country is to move away from corrupt Republican rule. I will certainly applaud if Texas moves away from evil and 'goes into the light'.
88
@Eugene Debs I feel sorry for you, at some point you are going to run out of other people's money and unfortunately we will all suffer the consequences of "progressive" stupidity (if you win elections)
10
@Red Blazer Do you think insane deficit spending is unique to progressive policy? Look at Trump's latest budget proposal, which intends to increase the deficit even further with massive increases to "defense" spending (tempered only slightly by cuts to education and social security).
I feel sorry for you. When conservatives are in charge, they spend "other people's money" on killing people -- when progressives are in charge, they spend it on helping folks at home.
Deficit spending is a reality of government in the 21st century, red or blue. Look at the consequences of austerity in the UK and tell me which fiscal doctrine you prefer.
137
@trapstar I completely agree with you. Unfortunately, apparently there is no amount of evidence to convince people like Red Blazer that Republican policies are detrimental to the economic and physical health of the country. Democratic led states are at the top of the rankings of pretty much every measure of the health and welfare of their residents. And every time conservatives actually enact the policies they desire- Kansas, Louisiana(under Jindal), the UK and the EU after the Great Recession- those states and countries fall even further behind. But the conservatives continue to drift along in their own bubble of misinformation.
74
South Texas Mexican-Americans, in general, are much more conservative than upper middle class, educated Anglos. Getting more of them to vote will not turn Texas blue.
15
@R. Vasquez
You could say the same thing about AZ, but Pima County is heavily Chicano and Democratic, and the County seat, Tucson which date to the 18th century, has been such for generations.
11
@Jonathan Swift
I should also add that many Mexican-Americans worked in the copper mines and became unionized due to the bad treatment by their (Republican) owners. Also keep in mind black Americans tend to be anti-abortion and are solidly Democratic.
13
Beto is like Hillary. Not experienced at anything, not a leader or a good candidate, but Democrats will harass you if you vote otherwise.
7
@jb Yeah, not experienced at anything - that was surely Hillary Clinton's problem. Maybe she should have spent some time getting some experience in some part of the Federal government before running for president. What would you have suggested - Senate? State Department? White House?
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@jb
Hillary Clinton “not experienced at anything”?!
She was a Senator and Secretary of State.
77
@jb Are you seriously saying that Hillary was not experienced compared to Trump?
36
Hey NYT and other pubs, quit running these red/blue maps based on the geographic size of counties/states. It's nearly irrelevant (gerrymandering aside) . Who cares if "Middle of no where big county" is 100% red if 100% of a city is blue. Square miles don't vote- people vote (except where they can't due to vote suppression).
37
Two other factors that deserve analysis:
1) The pace of urbanization in Texas.
2) The geographical dispersion/concentration of wealth and wealthy residents in Texas.
Trump's (and now all Republicans') appeal is primarily to the non-college, rural, white, male, fundamentalist Christian segment of the population.
As wealth, education and population all get concentrated in urban areas, Texas will turn ever more Blue.
25
However notable, O'Rourke was just one state-wide candidate. A better gauge of Democratic growth in Texas in the 2018 elections might be the 2018 state legislative elections. Democrats picked up 12 seats in the state House of Representatives, and one seat in the state Senate. That followed smaller legislative gains by Democrats in 2016, even as Trump won the state.
66
Bobby Francis came so close because of Cruz’s unpopularity with Women. Governor Abbott won by 16 points, so it was a personal thing.
That said, with our infestation of Locusts from Calizuela, we cannot take anything for granted anymore.
4
@Chris
It's a free country--move.
24
I'm from DFW, now in Oklahoma..
too many progressives are letting there feeling get first run, use the analytical side of the gourd..there is zero chance of Texas going purple; I think as usual you are overstating the vote of native Hispanic, a high% of whom are catholic and detest abortions.
Folk vote their beliefs and their wallets...
so stop drinking t ha progressive koolade.
8
@Larry Venable All of the growth in Texas is in the blue cities. Despite Abbott's victory, Dems picked up 12 state House and one state Senate seat in an obscenely gerrymandered state. The GOP vote is now made up almost exclusively of rural voters and old white men, both demos that are dying off. It might take a decade, but the change is in the wind.
50
The recently passed Republican tax law will send many more blue state voters to Texas. Karma baby.
27
@Grandinquisitor Pleny of the blue state voters leaving are in fact conservative. They are leaving because they are fed up with the high taxes and probably aren't wealthy enough to get ahead. Upwards of 35-40% of people in those states are republican voters. Nate Silver has written about this before.
4
Dear Mr. Cohn (and Upshot staff),
Maps are great; keep 'em coming. Please, also, include more cartograms where the voting districts are sized by population as opposed to geography to make a visual appraisal of the data easier. And if I may be so bold - perhaps the hexagonal kind, used by the BBC to show Parliament. About 8 space bar clicks down this page -
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40176349
Thank you.
20
I'm a sixth generation Texan. We believe in liberty and free-market capitalism and are also personally generous to a fault to less fortunate neighbors and tolerant of all. That is WHY most of us now vote Republican. When Beto came to my county to campaign, they had to block off part of the hall so the empty seats wouldn't show. The same hall overflowed for Ted Cruz. The local news filmed Cruz at the end of his rally after half the people had left, with empty chairs behind him. They filmed Beto from behind, arms outstretched like an angel of God, with a tight shot of the small crowd in front of him. Beto is fake news and made such a strong showing only because of massive out of state money, which was also poured in for other candidates. Cruz showed weaker because he was late to the party supporting Trump and there was residual resentment for that and he had less money. He was still way stronger than Beto, who was hyped by the media and flooded with outside money.
7
@4Julia Cruz had a higher percentage of out of state money than Beto did. And the money Cruz did get from out of state came mainly from massive contributions from Mercer and Koch affiliated PACs.
61
@4Julia, 'We believe in liberty and free-market capitalism and are also personally generous to a fault to less fortunate neighbors and tolerant of all', and nearly as humble as Trump it would seem.
21
@4Julia. Spot-on!
2
Increased Latin voting number notwithstanding--one should not assume that all such voters will vote Democratic most of the time--the real Blue-ing trend would come from just getting more people to vote in general.
The real victor in all elections, even Presidential ones, is "not voting". Only some 55% or so of eligible voters show up, at most. If some of these people started actually showing up, it's likely that most electorates would trend more Democratic/progressive, given the overall national polling numbers on where Americans actually stand on issues of health care, education, spending, and the like.
And keep in mind, too, that the biggest cohort of non-voters are younger people, and they are not likely to trend conservative. If people 18-30 start voting in appreciable numbers, all states are in play.
47
Beto was running against a weak candidate, Ted Cruz. He received a flood of money from all over the country because of that fact and there were enough never Trumper's that were also never Cruz.
It was the biggest get out the vote campaign the Democrats have waged in the state, yet they still lost. That attests to Beto's viability as a candidate. I personally attended two of his events and he was hard to watch, to understand that statement you need to be at one yourself, he is all over the place.
The rest of the statewide offices were won handily by the Republicans, the surge for Beto did not transfer to other Democrats running for statewide office. That again points to Ted Cruz being a weak candidate.
All in all, Beto needs to be more refined and more assertive in his beliefs and policies and he needs quit skateboarding and relying on him being a musician with a youthful look, he was a punk rocker, that is something he doesn't really want photo's and videos surfacing.
On a national stage, I don't see Beto being very competitive. He was hyped as being the one to take down Cruz and the country rallied behind him because Democrats can't stand Cruz.
9
@Fray Beto's punk rock days are a massive selling point to many. Every time that Cruz put out a photo of Beto in his younger days Beto got more popular. Just because you may not like it doesn't mean that most don't. People like a person who has a soul.
21
@Fray
Everyone can't stand Cruz.
12
@Fray, 'he is all over the place', as opposed to Trump who is always so consistent, consistently lies, consistently brags, consistently bully's and consistently plays golf, oh and is consistently below 40% approval.
12
O'Rourke spent $72 million vs. $26 million spent by Cruz in the TX senate rate. And he still lost. I wouldn't get my hopes up too soon about O'Rourke...
10
Okay Beto, I'm listening.
You've got a bit of a hill to climb with me: I want a woman to be elected (having a female running mate won't cut it), and I am more progressive than you. I don't care that you were in a punk band. Being from Texas is a little scary to this New Englander, even as the prospect of turning Texas blue is kind of cool.
You're gonna have to prove that you're not this year's Bernie: compelling in some dimensions, but ultimately not the right guy for the job.
I'm listening.
16
@Cousy
You moved to texas then bring the losing NW East Coast politics to a state built on individualism....why??
if you vote w/o thinking you're hurting The Great State.Texas is built on oil and capitalism....How is it you think Texas was able to build all they have w/o hitting folks for 6% taxes? No state income tax is a HUGE advantage. Re-evaluate, as you're on the losing side for the next century. If a revolution occurs..as in the 2nd American Revolution Dallas could well be the New United Southern States capital...
2
@Larry Venable I can't help you with your fantasies of a New Southern U.S., but I can help you with with Cousy said. S/he gives their location as New England. Guessing that's where Cousy lives. The comment was about O'Rourke running for President. You know, for all of us?
FWIW, O'Rourke's gotta climb the same hill with me that Cousy describes.
12
Being a NATIVE Texan, from a family that has lived there since before statehood, I cannot understand why Texas is still Red.
People continue to vote against their own interests. Duh !
27
@Heartland Harry Texas has a surplus, and the legislature meets only after two years to hammer out a budget. In Texas you are left alone, with no big government robbing you. No income tax. How is that not in your best interest?
4
@peta We have no income tax but get slaughtered by regressive property taxes.
16
@Clayton Strickland And that is what the state legislature, run by Republicans, is working on right now. There is a huge push to lower property taxes.
Beto is the Establishment Elite candidate. Beto received record contributions from Big Money donors from outside of Texas.
The US media will chip in another $100 million to $200 million in free marketing for Beto.
He's going to be tough to beat in the Democrat primary.
4
I thought that instead of running for President, O'Rourke was going to run for the Senate in Louisiana under the name "Beteaux O'Rourke."
8
My extremely simple heuristic for when US politics will begin to function well again is when Texas goes blue, which is going to happen sooner rather than later. It might not be 2020, or even 2024, but in the next 15ish years it will happen. At that point the 3 largest states will all be blue, and it will be a death sentence for the current GOP. It will force them to either shift to be more moderate, or lose elections.
17
@Ben simple is correct yank....
1
@Larry Venable
Why do you call Ben “yank”. Are you British?
5
Beto is an empty suit. Yes, he has charisma, good looking guy, tall and fits the image which is a powerful factor to make him an adoring figure like Obama. Big problem though..he's not black! And the democrat party has replaced its main base of white working class folks (Trump took it from them), with people of color, much of the youth and far left women's group. This, and the fact that Trump has accomplished so much on issues, that when it gets down to final debates, it would be very difficult for Beto, or any democrat for that matter, to win against Trump. All these candidates running in 2020 are actually setting themselves up for 2024 knowing it will be difficult to unseat Trump despite the media's disdain for him. Remember that the media was entirely against Trump during Hillary's attempt, yet he still won!
10
@Vince Hugh
Trump won because blacks and Hispanics didn't have high turnout. Trump has been a walking ad to Democrats that voting is important. Democratic turnout will be huge, despite voter suppression.
26
@Vince Hugh
Many of Trump's 'accomplishments' were simply the rubber stamping of the conservative Republican wish list.
The big, beautiful tax cut went to corporations and to the wealthy. Many middle class folks are discovering that they now do not get a tax refund, or owe more! Oops!
Confirming conservative justices was the work of Mitch McConnell, not Trump.
Trump is a liability to the Republican brand, and many true Republicans have figured this out - but they are stuck with him...unless he resigns under pressure.
15
@Vince Hugh If you think Trump "accomplished" a whole lot, you are in a very weird bubble. Dems could blow it, yes, but only if they nominate a nutter who spawns a serious 3rd party campaign.
8
We can only pray that the people of Texas continue to turn from the Republican Party. However, even if the Texan horizon is boldly blue, anyone who believes that the GOP will allow Texans and their nearly 40 electoral votes to simply choose another party is a fool.
Under the bulwark of the castrated Voting Rights Act, they will do as they've done in North Carolina and in Wisconsin. The GOP has treated voter suppression as if it were a scientific discipline. Their base met the destruction of landmark civil rights legislation with unrestrained joy.
Despite their loud protestations in the holiness of the Constitution, Republican voters see no hypocrisy in these actions. The reason is simple: they believe that the deep-red states belong to them.
After all, Democrats who benefit from shifting demographics are usurpers.
62
@RS "We can only pray that the people of Texas continue to turn from the Republican Party."....Pray to who?
4
At our local university, a new Republican student organization chapter was recently started. About 3/4 of the members are young Hispanics, Blacks, and Asians. Not a good trend for Texas Democrats...
7
@RS Only in the world of progressive is providing a voter ID considered "voter suppression."
1
Jim Chongo's observations are correct, about immigration into Texas.
God please have mercy on Texas, and don't let all the Californians and Yankees swamp us and make our state as awful as those states are.
For the moment, we have freedom and limited government here. Not for long, if the parasitic leftists get their way. The culture and traditions that make our state unique--traditions which are much more broad-minded and encompassing than outsiders could ever understand--are threatened to be destroyed wholesale.
Multiculturalism, clearly, is a one way street.
5
Preach it, Brother Greg. Preach it. No more of that New York City salsa needs to be in Texas, either.
4
@Greg
Many of Trump's 'accomplishments' were simply the rubber stamping of the conservative Republican wish list.
The big, beautiful tax cut went to corporations and to the wealthy. Many middle class folks are discovering that they now do not get a tax refund, or owe more! Oops!
Confirming conservative justices was the work of Mitch McConnell, not Trump.
Trump is a liability to the Republican brand, and many true Republicans have figured this out - but they are stuck with him...unless he resigns under pressure.
2
Robert O'Rourke (I refuse to call him "Beto") appeals to the clueless millennials and the leftist Democrats. After a few months of the new hard left and radical Democrats elected this last cycle the U.S. and Texas will go Republican.
11
@Martin Do you call Ted Cruz "Rafael?"
24
@Aaron There is a difference between having an ethnic name and taking an English name (think Jose to Joe, Miguel to Michel, Guido to Guy), than having an American name, and using an ethnic name for a perceived political advantage (Michael to Beto). Think about it.
Don't know why Cruz or his parents chose Ted. Robert would have made more sense.
3
It is interesting to see that if you look on the map of the 2018 Senate results that the Democratic candidate won most of the vote at the US-Mexico border. Could be a sign that the majority of the people there opposed the wall of President Trump.
11
Actually, it's the opposite. Majority cries out for the wall. The large illegal population and their noisy activists oppose the wall...mainly on economic and slowed illegal transit reasons.
4
@Wilbray Thiffault, no, it is a sign that the politics of this region have been corrupt on the side of Democrats for decades. Look up "Box 13" and learn about how Lyndon Johnson got elected to begin with. This area has a lot of voter fraud and always has, and has nothing to do with Trump or the wall, except that those corrupted by the cartels don't want their business model interfered with, some landowners are concerned about construction of a wall for individual reasons, but also many ranchers would welcome a wall and better enforcement who live every day with drug and illegal smuggling endangering their families and property. Think what it would be like, just for a minute, to own property where you had illegal smugglers coming through on a daily basis, finding dead people on your property and trees covered with ladies' undergarments signifying the horrific abuse that went on on your property. Would you want to live that way?
4
Hat's off to Beto for running a strong campaign against "Lying Ted" Cruz. His results, at least in part, where a reflection of how widely Sen. Cruz is disliked. Candidly, Beto would NOT run as well against the senior Texas Senator John Cornyn in 2020.
And looking at the election result maps, it is clear the major cities in TX, including Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio vote Democratic. This result is very similar to nationwide results wherein rural /exurban voters tend to vote GOP while urban / suburban voters tend to vote Democrat.
Beto did not change the state's voting dynamics nearly as much as the national media and DNC would like to believe. And Texas can be in play, given the right candidate / right message.
5
@GTM
Suburban districts are not as blue as indicated in your comment. In the one I live in, midterm voting went 3:1 for Republicans. However, there are others much closer (within 10%). These are the targets of efforts to flip a few more districts. And, in the process bring in more Democrats up and down the ballot.
2
The trend toward BLUE in Texas is not just a response to Trump and GOP policies at the national level. GOP policies and leadership inside Texas are similarly reprehensible, and I would not be surprised if that motivated voters into the blue column as much or more than Trump.
5
"It is far-fetched to suggest Hispanic mobilization will fundamentally transform the electorate and turn Texas into a blueish state anytime soon." Seems more likely with Beto now than any time in the next 20 years. Imagine the negative ads featuring Trump. More importantly, there will be a lot of young Democratic boots on the ground. The kids are coming back as a force, maybe stronger than when I could first vote in the 60s. Far out.
8
At least in my area of Texas Hill Country north of SATX, young Hispanics are trending Republican despite Democrat rhetoric to the contrary.
7
Another important factor is the number of people moving to Texas from other states. The number of people moving to Texas is a bout 1000 a day, so over 4 years Texas may add 2%-3% more voters. I would guess they are mostly younger and less conservative than long time or native born residents. Over a last decade Texas may have added 1-2 million new voters. That in addition to older more conservative dropping off the voter rolls by attrition may be the biggest factors in how Texas votes. I live one county east of Austin and the expansion of the Austin outer suburbs is reaching us and it is starting to dilute the conservative nature of the population. The same thing is happening in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. The bigger change can happen in medium sized cities as the bigger cities get more congested businesses and people are moving to those places. It takes a lot fewer new residents to effect the balance between democratic and republicans residents.
37
@jim chongo I'm no partisan but I have to imagine a big reason a lot of companies and people are relocating to texas, besides perhaps a warmer climate, is the business environment, low taxes and lighter regulation and permitting, which allows for a growing population to affordably live in the state. what may take a decade to fight through NIMBY opposition on the coasts can get done in a year or two in texas. unlike california, they can build housing to keep up with the growth and keep it (relatively) affordable. if all of these new comers vote for democrats, some aspects may improve, but at a cost that will make future growth more difficult. need to balance growth with regulation or those companies and jobs will find another, more welcoming state to go to.
7
@jon
The the public perception of the amount of regulations in Texas or California is not always accurate. I looked into relocating back to California and that states agricultural regulations are far less stringent that they are in Texas. Development codes and zoning ( except for Houston) in Texas are also far more tough than California. Austin leads the country in the strictness of it's development regulations especially in areas of storm water runoff, waster quality, impervious cover limits and tree protections.
The big difference there is no state income tax and the corporate taxes are low. The state relies on property taxes to pay for what services it can afford. If the state of Texas didn't get billions in revenue from oil royalties it would have to have either a state income tax or much higher property taxes which would drive up home prices.
8
This was very interesting and clearly written. I agree that an idea of population density would be helpful in conveying the potential of the small blue islands in the sea of red.
6
@Calimom
The blue islands are cities, Austin, Houston, Dallas/Ft. Worth, San Antonio. All cities and urban areas in Texas are Democratic. Everything else is sparsely populated and Republican.
14
@bksi
Yes, I knew that.
Just a quick thought from data visualization viewpoint.
Would it be possible for the Times to present the graphic that shows the party breakdown of voters by county, to include the third dimension representing population? Whenever I see these charts, I note the tiny blue counties surrounded by a sea of red but it should be noted that the population in those counties are quite high (relatively speaking).
Actually, come to think of it, perhaps the third dimension shouldn't be population but rather population density. Anyway, the point is to get across the point that the red areas are large but sparsely populated. This might show the urban/rural divide more clearly (which, of course, could be inferred from relative sizes of the counties).
75
@TK Interestingly, Texas has more counties than any other state. I suggest that the individual county areas should be rescaled by their population before coloring. As you point out, this would make Harris County's blue much more prominent.
11