China’s Slowdown Already Hit Its Factories. Now Its Offices Are Hurting, Too.

Mar 14, 2019 · 28 comments
bonku (Madison)
China must limit spending huge sums of money for its global hegemony and military aggression against its neighbors and promoting (Islamic) terrorism in the neighborhood (mainly by supporting Islamic terrorists in Pakistan). More countries, including its "closest allay" Pakistan, are now recognizing Chinese debt trap in the guise of investment. Many already taken steps to limit the damage to thier economy by Chinese predatory lending and many more are actively considering such steps. China also not stop claiming almost everything in its neighborhood- starting from Mongolia (China's first UNSC veto was opposing Mongolia's admission to the UN as it claim Mongolia as part of it "One China" policy), Tibet, few parts of India, Taiwan, huge part of South China sea and so on. China must learn to behave as a member of UN Security Council than to exploit its new found prosperity and global power (as a member of UNSC) more judiciously if it really like to see international corporation in trade and also in geopolitics.
seattle expat (Seattle, WA)
@bonku you have made your wishes clear, but it is unlikely the Chinese government will pay any attention to your ideas.
A Canadian in Toronto (Toronto, Canada)
But, is it just a recession that all developed economies have to go through?
mjerryfurest (Urbana IL)
The undocumented comments to this article are most contradictory (1) Reader JMS wrote that China's debt to GDP is 230%, compared to 100% for the U.S. (2) Reader Godfree made to two suggestions that violate my intuition (a) Last year, Chinese manufacturing workers' 8.8% raise made them more expensive for their employers than American workers are for theirs. (b) Next year 500,000,000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American, (3) Reader Ralph Petrillo wrote: "China has a 4 trillion surplus while we have a 22 trillion debt the US is also built on thin ice." This seems very inconsistent with (1) But the comments in general suggest (1) an impending Chinese economic collapse which more greatly effect the world than the Japanese collapse of several decades ago (2) Undeveloped nations will soon catch on to how China is exploiting them (3) US universities which have become dependent on tuition dollars of well-to-do Chinese students are in for a shock
Bruce Maier (Shoreham, BY)
The longer term future for China isn't brighter either - as the one child per family program reduced population growth, and the newly educated women are in no hurry to start a family. China has entire cities that are empty - empty because they have more office space for workers than the entire working population of China! They have spurred growth by unsustainable means. In 10 years, we will wonder why we thought China was going to take over the world. They won't be able to handle the uprising from economic collapse.
richard addleman (ottawa)
The Chinese have been slamming Canada the last while because of the Wei Wei woman arrested but now out on bail in Vancouver.One of her mansions there is worth 15 million.Anyway no sympathy from me and most Canadians.
George (Neptune NJ)
It's inevitable a major recession not just Cheap China, but the world there are specific indicators that substantiate the validity of my statements. How ever The United States needs to go after China for the systematic robbery, and intellectual theft of American technology, and software in addition to the premeditated acts of war by building military instillations of Islands around all over Asia. The Cheap Chinese has installed military think tanks to extract American ideas from the Top University throughout the United States and Canada. Under a cover called confusious ... China is a very, very bad deal to the World just look at its actions. We need to boycott china.
Rahul (Philadelphia)
China has manufactured fake growth with unneeded construction, it has to end somewhere because you can accumulate only so many empty buildings and bridges to nowhere before the system goes bankrupt. The collapse of the Soviet Union surprised everyone but the Soviet Union did not have many linkages to the rest of the world except as a weapons exporter. China is different, China is the main consumer of almost every raw material. China is also a major investor across the world. The collapse of China will resound everywhere.
JMS (NYC)
China has no idea what it's doing...none. It's debt to GDP is 270% - it's borrowed beyond belief...to build superhighways to nowhere. The cost to service that debt is strangling the country and it's deficit this year may be 3% of GDP...it's rushing to market with $200 billion of municipal debt. This is no business cycle - this is financial suicide - the U.S. debt to GDP is just over 100% and is becoming a yoke on our own economy - don't think $350 billion in annual interest cost to service our $21 trillion of debt is manageable - it isn't. The number's going up as we project deficits until 2034. China's financial activity and opaque lending standards, are heading it, and the world, towards an impending financial crisis. We have no conception of how leveraged the world is - and it's too late to stop - the horse is out of the barn - China, the US, Greece, Italy....none of us will repay our debt - we can barely pay the interest - and how to you cut budgets - politicians don't know the definition of fiscal discipline...and the Chinese are the most reckless of all major economies in the world.
Ralph Petrillo (Nyc)
Business cycles occur in all countries. China has a great savings rate, and is still growing at 6%. What is great about China is that the Chinese want to work and are a great people that do not want handouts. China will rebound strongly . However modern technology is eliminating jobs, and all countries are going to have a more difficult time as jobs are eliminated. a taxation on new technology should go into effect to help unemployed workers. All societies are going to go through massive job elimination over the next ten years.
Mons (EU)
China can't afford to maintain all of the infrastructure they've built. Should make for a hilarious next 30 years.
ed (darien)
You can laugh all you want, but the real joke is the pathetic infrastructure we have in this country starting with the fourth world New York City airports .
godfree (california)
These anecdotes are interesting but in a country of 1.4 billion, stats are essential and instructive. Last year, Chinese manufacturing workers' 8.8% raise made them more expensive for their employers than American workers are for theirs. That's adjusted for productivity, a 40% benefit burden and purchasing power parity, but still, China has the highest labor union membership and disposable income growth on earth. Could this be coincidental? Next year 500,000,000 urban Chinese will have more net worth and disposable income than the average American, their mothers and infants will be less likely to die in childbirth, their children will graduate from high school three years ahead of our kids and live longer, healthier lives. Huawei is a sideshow to a sideshow. We have a real problem on our hands that nobody wants to talk about. Sadly, the Times is one of a diminishing number of media that even permits such discussion.
winteca (Singapore)
You may wish to take off your rose-tinted lenses. All Chinese who can afford it have obtained or are trying to obtain residency permits outside of PRC (such as via European golden visa schemes). They escape pollution on a massive scale (so much for longer, healthier lives) and an increasingly totalitarian state. They also escape poor food and med standards - in South-East Asian countries baby milk formula is flying off the shelves, bought by Chinese tourists. So not all is well, far from it.
mainliner (Pennsylvania)
There is a ton of over capacity in the Chinese economy. For all its market aspects, there is still has a lot of central planning and state-opened industry. Such economies inevitably accumulate a ton of misinvestment if they grow too quickly. And that governments resist the creative destruction of free market economies, so they make the fall worse.
Robert (Florida)
The real estate industry has a large multiplier (or spillover) effect in any economy. So, China’s real estate slump will continue to create lost jobs and deflationary wage pressures. However, the Renmingbi currency unit is now part of International the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights currency units. So, China should allow the Renmingbi to decrease in value relative to other currencies. Such a decrease in Remingbi value relative to other currencies would increase exports and maintain jobs. Unfortunately, this is China’s best economic strategy now, as a serious economic recession may create an inability for some important entities to service high debt levels, and lead to illiquidity and insolvency.
Robert (New York City)
China is moving closer and closer to a freefall in their residential real estate prices. This has been the #1 sector that money moves into whenever the government tries to prop up the economy. However, the buildings are constructed with substandard materials and they begin to fall apart as soon as they're built, so there no lasting value in them.
Maria (Canberra)
All the foreign universities -- in the US, Australia, New Zealand, and elsewhere -- are going to be hit hard by the slump in China's economy. Are they ready for it?
Cary Mom (Raleigh)
So many US jobs moved to China for decades now. All I have to say is "boo hoo."
Chris McClure (Springfield)
American owners moved those jobs overseas, to be sure, but I agree with your sentiment.
Ralph Petrillo (Nyc)
@Cary Mom The big US companies wanted to destroy US labor unions.
ijarvis (NYC)
China's economy has been built on the thin ice of government spending, unsecured lending and systemic corruption. It's robbing Peter to pay Paul on a monumental scale. This structure isn't new and neither is the inevitable outcome; economic failure. It's hard to predict a total blowout but the contraction will be monumental. It's not a question of 'if', it's a question of 'when".
Ralph Petrillo (Nyc)
@ijarvis China has a 4 trillion surplus while we have a 22 trillion debt the US is also built on thin ice. China will have to start selling its debt holdings to stimulate tis economy. Look for US rates after the next election to soar.
friend for life (USA)
There are several mechanisms China has used to jump-start growth, as well as avoid backlash from the governing missteps that causes social chaos through-out the homes of more than 1 billion people. China will blame loudly, its track record show. The governing leader's fingers will point outward toward fading clouds of a 1800's colonial past. But this history contrasts loudly with lavish multi-home, sports car lifestyles that are common in China's cities in recent decades. There is African money pouring-in, South American money, European and Mexican pesos are building this new China along with technology stolen from the wealthier country's people. The new China delivering One Belt Colonialism and indebtedness to countless countries, cannot return so easily to it's comfortable victim-hood and finger-wagging. China will continue tricking and manipulating governments from Timbuktu to Sao Paolo to Berlin - but it can no longer claim to be a victim under duress. The new China that is plundering Africa, Central Asia and the Americas with costly development projects is no victim, make no mistake. - Cries of victim-hood, dusted-off from enshrined storage, 'blame' and cries of shaming; these are the Chinese Government's next steps you will see. Except the cry this time will be weak; most people in China know their authoritarian-capitalist government (Fascist) is not a victim, not democratic, or offering true representation for the people themselves, just a market-driven machine.
PC (Aurora, Colorado)
Hey China, instead of hacking the U.S., why don’t you learn to get along. Let your people have a voice, and let them innovate. Then you won’t have to hack. If your large companies are only half as corrupt as the ones in the U.S., you should not have a hard time. Besides, it’ll force the U.S. companies to compete instead of lobbying Congress. Well, maybe.
George (Neptune NJ)
very, very true... Great statement.
dsbarclay (Toronto)
Trump imagines that causing China economic pain will force it to comply. The difference is; the President of China does not have to face voters, he is leader for life. People who complain too loudly, criticize the Govt. are jailed. Its the US politicians, and the President who cannot endure economic hardship without losing their jobs.
George (Neptune NJ)
very , very sad but true.