America is a farm. The citizens are the animals to be milked and bled and slaughtered for the profit of the corporations and the rich. The politicians are paid by the corporations and the rich to make sure the animals stay in their places and obey.
13
Citizen DONALD J. TRUMP stated WTC exploded- they were blown up. Candidate DONALD J. TRUMP swore an oath to Thor that he and he alone is capable of draining the swamp and locking up crooked Hillary Clinton. President DONALD J. TRUMP plays more golf than Tiger Woods.
4
By no coincidence, Putin is very happy that America is no longer trusted in the world.
12
Trump's reckless conduct is actually a wake up call to American business and finance. Trump approached a line that could have resulted in extremely serious military or political conflict. Were either to occur, it was highly likely that China would have nationalized American owned businesses and investments there. That would have led to the collapse of our economy long term, really long term. I would hope that American business and finance will see the folly of leaving the safety of the states and migrate back home here. Trump is a phenomena, to be kind. The lesson is that it could always be worse, and we got close.
2
45 just muddled the water and called it winning!!
1
"talk loud but carry a small stick" seems to be Trump's MO in just about everything.
Republican President Theodore Roosevelt must be spinning in his grave.
6
Alt title for Paul’s “America the Cowardly Bully” — “America the HQ of Global Empire”.
[“Paul Krugman did explanatory journalism before it was cool, moving from a career as a world-class economist to writing hard-hitting opinion columns.” — and yes I signed up for his newsletter]
But since David Leonhardt’s newsletter today is poaching on Paul’s economic turf by injecting Brad DeLong’s views on what America’s political economic system is, I feel free to include my comment to the WP:
Brad Delong knows what I did in ‘68 —- that what most Americans called “our country”, was just the next step in a metastasizing cancer of this Disguised Global Capitalist EMPIRE.
What he either doesn’t know, or won’t admit, is that the modern push to Empire began well before the Powell memo of ‘73 — it began in ‘44 with two certainties; that the US would win the Second World War of Empires, and that FDR would die in office and whereby socialist, Henry Wallace, had to be replaced as VP with a naive dope haberdasher who could be conned into allowing the CIA/NSA and an MIC-run “Double Government” [Michael Glennon] to be secretly birthed and allowed to grow like a “Quiet American” cancer into this 21st century 7 sectored dual-party Vichy facade of faux-democracy for this long planned Disguised Global Capitalist Empire.
3
All the "base" will hear from this is that Trump got another great deal. Just like he promised.
3
We have seen Trump put a lot of stress on the relationships with Western allies, got the American public to see China as an enemy across both political parties, encouraged Taiwan to be more assertive, pushed Iran into a corner, and gave North Korea more time. Could there be ONE fundamental reason that motivated Trump? There is a lot of talk about Trump being heavily influenced by Russia. How can Russia get the most out of that? Russia would really like to set the stage to take Ukraine, militarily or politically. Russia is not going to be able to absorb Ukraine unless the US is preoccupied, distracted or spread too thin. USSR lost because US got China away from USSR. Russia needs to get China away from US, for Russia to proceed with making Russia great again. Absorbing Ukraine would be a vital part of that plan. China needs to absorb those disputed South China Sea island and Taiwan to break out of the US-led encirclement, in order to take the make China great again plan to the next level. N Korea eyes S Korea, and Iran eyes Syria and Iraq. When a snipe and clam quarrel, the fisherman benefits, and Russia plans to be the fisherman.
1
Trump bawls for the US with ketchup bleeding from his palms. Welcome to the land of the fake and home of the knave.
5
Dr. Krugman:
Just two words for your wisdom, intelligence and succinct analysis.
THANK YOU!
7
There's a good metaphor for what has happened. We didn't lose the war, but we fell behind in the economic race. We slowed down more than other economies.
The trade wars contributed, as did the general loss of respect when other countries realized that a bad President can undo almost everything a good President accomplished...and in much less time.
TPP took 5 years to negotiate, but one day to reject. And since all the other countries signed on, they all gained a little advantage over the U.S. in terms of trade.
Can a good President make up the lost ground? No, the world has now seen that we are not stable or reliable. But all the Democrats can at least endorse the TPP, and pledge to use it to develop our share of the renewable energy market.
On the latter, by the way, I am more strongly opposed to nuclear than ever before, now that it has become a favorite of know-nothings like Rick Perry and the Trump crime family. The only way it can work is with huge government tax breaks and our paying for the long term storage and clean-up of nuclear waste. Trump only supports it because Westinghouse is now owned by his financial supporters.
1
Question: if Trump really cares about America, as his flag-hugging is supposed to suggest, then why does he mandate his supporters to systematically ignore what scientists who disagree with some of his policies (such as Krugman) write?
Why is he lying about what those scientists say, instead of having the moral courage and intellectual power/passion to refute what they say, once he disagrees with them?
And more importantly, why isn't he cultivating the very spirit that made America great in the first place: the categorical refusal of ANY "authority argument", when it comes to discovering the truth, and the systematical questioning and investigating of our own beliefs, so that instead of identifying with a statement or ideology, we identify with fact-checking and thinking for ourselves?
Trump famously distorted Krugman's election night statement, and then tells his supporters to reject Krugman as a bad/false scientist.
Why isn't he telling his supporters that that's NOT how science works in the first place? Why is he so afraid of the truth, and of actively engaged, truth-seeking voters?
Can you imagine our forefathers arriving at the East coast and then instead of going West, by "trial and error", staying close to the coast, too afraid to confront difficult situations head on ... ?
It's nevertheless what he tells his supporters to do, and as a consequence what they do below: no refutation, just ad hominem attacks on Krugman.
Sad.
2
That flag is screaming "me, too!"
Someone on his staff has got to get him to stop doing that.
4
Trump enablement assures that US claims of liberty, freedom, and divinity will met with guffaws elsewhere for a long time to come.
5
should re revisit that Trump victory/US equity market prediction from 2016, krugman? forgive me if i'm a little shy re the usefulness of your opinions and predictions....
1
@Dutch Jameson
This is a perfect example of what Trump is doing to America.
He's so afraid of criticism that he needs to tell his supporters to systematically ignore and reject as false no matter what scientists who criticize him may say or write, without trying to read or refute it.
That's not how America was built, remember?
America became the wealthiest country on earth, since WWII, thanks to its courageous investment in science and technology.
Making REAL stuff is only possible when you refuse to let someone tell you what to believe and what not, and decide to systematically fact-check for yourself.
If you would have done so, you would have discovered for two years already that on election night Krugman indeed said that Trump's victory would plunge us in a recession. The NEXT, he explained what he meant by that: IF president Trump does everything that candidate Trump promised to do, THEN a recession would inevitably follow.
Was that a correct prediction or not?
To find out the answer, you have to compare Trump's campaign promises to what he did as president during his first two years in office.
Result?
- no wall (= not one single inch)
- no repeal and replace Obamacare
- no withdrawing from NATO
- no mass deportations
- only recently a trade war, with for the moment only modest tariff increases, compared to what he campaigned on.
Conclusion:
1. it's too early to know whether in 2016 Krugman was correct or not.
2. so any comments on THIS op-ed, concretely?
4
So the global economy "depends on" American leadership! It is capitalism - or war.
2
Trump will call it a victory. Fox and Friends will promote it as such. All Trump's supporters will give him a rounding applause for the greatest President ever. So sad.
8
Who cares about America's reputation. Trump and Xi are besties.
2
It's tragic for the country that so much damage has already been done by a person who shouldn't have been elected in the first place, a low-life con artist, a felon. Who in the world could respect a Nation that is dumb enough to elect such a corrupt human being like this to office?
We're reaping what we've sown.
8
GO CANADA GO!
6
Besides the floors in Trump tower how about the big time political doners from Lowe’s, Home Depot, and Walgreens huge Chinese goods sellers
2
Dear NYT:
More bombast, little analysis, from the former economist who glumly predicted "a global recession, with no end in sight" when Trump won election.
Can you please focus on policy, not ad hominum abusive attacks?
2
@Jorge
Uh ... so your comment on an op-ed of a current economist that contains lots of arguments and links to back up those arguments, is that ... he predicted something you didn't like so from then on you prefer "ad hominum abusive attacks" rather than trying to refute his arguments?
A bit absurd, no?
As to the recession that Krugman referred to: he predicted a recession once Trump starts to truly implement his campaign promises. Fortunately, most of them aren't implemented yet, and he started his trade war only recently, and still very modestly compared to what he campaigned on. That, of course, means that the Obama economy still continues its course, just like before. It does NOT however proof Krugman's 2016 statement wrong, you see?
And of course, rejecting ANY statement by an economist just because three years earlier he would have made a statement that would now have been proven to be false, isn't rational at all. Do you know how many mistakes Einstein had to make before he discovered his theory of relativity?
Scientists aren't gods. They propose hypotheses, and then verify them. You can NEVER criticize a scientist for proving a hypothesis false. You can only criticize hypotheses - contrary to what you're doing here (and what Trump tells his supporters to do).
By the way, it's "ad hominem", not "ad hominum". "Ad" in Latin requires an accusative, not a genitive, and "hominum" is the genitive (plural) of homo, remember?
So with that, any comments on substance?
7
Your very statement is an ad hominem attack. I do t get it
1
What will it take to Make America Great Again? At the present time in history we will never know.
What does it take to make a once Great America look to the rest of the World like the drunk uncle at the Christmas table? The election of the most troubled, the most divisive, the most over preening moron the world has seen in a position of power since Caligula. That is what it takes. Actually, that is what it took.
What will it take to Make America Great Again? We shall await and see if that is possible now.
4
lots of explanation, many details, but it boils down to what we already knew: Trump is a jerk, and his main skill is his loudmouth appeal to those who see he's a jerk and love him for it, either because he represents how they feel but can't express as loudly... or because they recognize they can use Trump to achieve their own goals and then stick him with the blame.
3
I have only two questions to silence Trump Cult, USA:
1) What if this was Obama?
2) Why are there so many Russians everywhere?
2
When all else fails the U.S. can create some false flag and begin a stupid, endless war to boost its economy. I hear the next Wall Street crash is coming and just around the corner. They the U.S. can fleece all the ignored, tax-paying middle-class to bail out the "too big to fail" banks. No worries. They've got this covered...
Trump's trade wars are the price of American voter stupidity. Which is far more depressing than the stupid things the Trump administration has done--and far less curable.
China is just one pole in the triangular trade that the USA have organized in Europe .We know that Microsoft empire was essentially due to intellectual property iron grip rather than inventivity. The GAFA also became so omnipotent in Europe because of very conservative financial practices based on fiscal fraud with the old anglo offshore banking system tugging the benefice back to the USA via Carribean shady banks.
No need to transport slaves anymore. We transport the product of their labor from one continent to the other.
2
Okay, I almost always get Paul's puns (and usually appreciate them), but the "Village People Agreement" eluded me. Can anyone reply with an explanation I'd greatly appreciate it.
Otherwise, an excellent article, as usual. The scariest point, that I hadn't considered before, is the tenuousness of our agreements if the next president can just rip them up. Sigh.
1
@BruceS
USMCA is similar to YMCA, famous song by The Village People.
I believe America can be trusted, just not with the present administration. What has been done can be undone as far as Trumps actions internationally.
We're up here waiting for a change. It may come sooner rather than later and even if we are a national security threat, we are not amassing our military along the border, you're safe from us.....for now.
2
Trump's trade wars resulted in financial ruin for a small manufacturing company in my city. They imported some components of their product from abroad. The Trump tariffs made those components prohibitively expensive. As a result, 79 people lost their jobs and our community lost the creative energies of the owners, the tax benefits of a successful company and the economic benefits that accrued to the employees.
99
The German philosopher Martin Heidegger postulated that we only know or grasp the essence of something when it breaks or is missing.
For example the "truth" of a hammer is revealed when it breaks. Or when we need a hammer and can't find one.
Even though Trump is synonymous with fake, lies, untruth and bad faith, he unintentionally unveils the truth of critical things we take for granted.
By breaking global trade, responsible government, democratic accountability, political legitimacy, personal and public morality, human rights, civility and basic decency and more on a list that easily exceeds the comment word limit, Trump has proven the truth of our human prospect by breaking it into tiny shards.
We see the truth of global trade because he wrecked it. We see the truth of democracy because he's poisoned it. We see the essence of e pluribus unum because he has sundered it. We know the essence of leadership and integrity because Trump can muster neither.
We know what we're not as a nation because of what he is. We know what we are because of what he isn't.
Trump is the broken hammer that reveals everything that we live by because he has taken them away.
Starting with the truth.
207
Very eloquently written. Kudos to you.
24
@PhilB
Too old to blush but thanks for reading my comment and replying.
10
@Yuri Asian
So well written and so true. The only favor Trump has done for this country is to rip the bandaid off suppurating cultural sores....racism, misogyny, immorality and lack of ethics, ignorance...the list goes on. Perhaps now that the wound has been exposed, Americans will work to heal it.
35
The greatest dealmaker in the world today is Vladimir Putin. For a few million dollars and a video recorder he's managed to bring the greatest nation the world has ever known down to the level of a third world banana state. For less than the cost of a new supercar, Putin has broken our unity, our politics, our voting, our civility and put us back 20 years. Well played Vladi.
6
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
Re-light the lamp of liberty! Truth is better than counting 9,000 and growing lies. Truth needs no counts!
2
Wow the art of the deal guy strikes out again. If he hadn't had daddy's money he'd be flipping burgers.
3
You are excoriating a trade agreement that presently exists only in your imagination. I know the feeling.
Wait for it. Then tell me what you think.
Or become forever irrelevant. Them's the rules.
In my opinion, Dr. Krugman and many other self-proclaimed "liberals" of the NYT have a very hard time speaking for the working man and working woman of America (and elsewhere). Attacking Ivanka Trump and other billionaires is not going to help these millionaires blend into the crowd.
1
Trump thinks he has to renegotiate all international agreements to put his name on them. Like his buildings and 2016 campaign jet, he has a drive to self-promote without the education and discipline required. Cohen is right. Remembering the Trump baby balloon paraded in London, overseas, people there think he is childish and a fool.
3
I appreciate how difficult it must be for foreign diplomats and negotiators to endure a guy who has to be the biggest, the best and the most boisterous in the room but is a pea brain.
5
Not "specious." That's a term in the elite, educated, knowledgeable, technocratic, globalistic, deep-state vocabulary. Get on board. The word is "fake."
2
Trump is the bully.
Why is Paul Krugman trashing America and not Trump?
Most Americans did not vote for Trump.
Trade Wars, broken international deals and alliances, Trump is like an arsonist who starts a fire, calls for help, then quickly puts it out and when the bravest arrive, he exclaims he saved the day and he is proclaimed a hero for extinguishing the fire. It's all to satisfy a need for love which may have been lacking in his childhood years.
3
Standard Trump behavior. He breaks something and then takes credit for fixing it.
1
It doesn't end at just welching on trade agreements or imposing economic sanctions on allies; what about Trump unilaterally withdrawing the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, i.e. the Iran nuclear agreement? Is there anyone who thinks that Kim Jong-un of North Korea does not consider that as a sign of American unreliability in reaching any kind of agreement with the U.S.? And even if the current administration were to adhere to any agreement reached, who is to say the next U.S. President will? After all, it was under another President, Obama, that Libya's Muammar Gaddafi was murdered in a Western-led intervention after he had ended his nuclear program and allowed international inspectors in his country to verify it. And how about President Trump unilaterally withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris Agreement dealing with greenhouse-gas-emissions mitigation, adaptation, and finance? American promises are no longer worth the paper they are written on.
2
It has been my hope, ever since Trump astonishingly assumed the role of president, that the rest of the world recognizes that he is nothing but a big old boil on the United States' backside: painful, but temporary. Please, world, bear with us until the boil goes away.
3
Compared to the Republican that he religiously support the center in the Democratic Party is alive and kicking. Maybe he should start cleaning his own party and church first.
So, it’s both too much and not enough?
AH Yes. Mr. 'the market will implode if Trump is elected' Krugman. OFTEN WRONG BUT NEVER IN DOUBT.
1
@JohnLeeHooker
With all respect, but I really don't understand how some people can still write comments like that, two years later.
Not only have most of Krugman's predictions become true today (including his predictions about the trade war), he NEVER ever claimed what you're writing here.
What he has said is that the economy will go into a recession if Trump is elected. That's what he said, during an emotional moment on election night.
The NEXT day already, he has explained what he meant by that: IF Trump really does what he campaigned on, then that will create a recession.
For most of his first two years in office, however, Trump didn't do anything of what he promised to do. No wall, no repealing and replacing of Obamacare, no withdrawing from NATO, no ending of NAFTA, no deportation of 11 million illegal aliens, and only the BEGINNING of his trade war (which he's about to end soon already again).
So as Krugman predicted, that means that the Obama economy can continue, fortunately.
And this op-ed, he gives a lot of arguments, links and facts supporting the idea that Trump's bullying doesn't work.
The only way to comment on such an op-ed in a serious way, is to stop imagining that you necessarily must be "often right and never in doubt", and to start thinking and, if you can, challenging one of Krugman's arguments or facts here.
Only those who love getting closer to the truth take debates seriously, however. The others are just bigots. Up to you to choose...
3
@Ana Luisa
When I lived overseas, I read comment after comment of Dr. Krugman talking about the European economy when it was clear to me that he didn't have the foggiest. He'd celebrate the EU, insisting with misused graphs, that there was no inflation, while me and everyone else at Lidl, Zielpunkt, and Hofer would be coming up short at the register in "Teuros". He was blind-sided by popular support for Orban, HC Strache, etc., not to mention Bernie, Brexit and Trump - the trifecta. And how could I, moi, have predicted these successes and such experts of the establishment missed them all? There are MANY people out these who know what's going on, but... the revolution isn't "televised". Dr. Krugan, in particular, is a real prisoner of his position in society and academia, including that Nobel Prize. He seems to believe too much that economic modeling can predict economic patterns, not to mention CULTURAL patterns (of other cultures, no less). Let's test some of those models against the null hypotheses....
1
To be fair, Krugman has been consistent.
Consistently wrong.
1
And your analysis is......?
2
America will need extraordinary leadership in the next president: the ability to not just restore our credibility after the current administration's feckless and reckless behavior, but also to build even stronger positions with allies and adversaries.
76
You just don't get it Krugman! It's called "winning by losing". I'll explain later.........after I figure out what that means.
3
It’s amusing that Donald Trump has successfully marketed himself as some kind of tough guy, when the only courage he’s ever demonstrated is his willingness to threaten legal action.
This is the sort of “bully” who might try demanding someone’s lunch money a couple of times, before promptly getting sent home bloody and battered.
The fact that this gimmick actually seems to work among Republican legislators is so pathetic that it hurts to watch.
3
Yeah, I'm officially tired of Trump winning. Can we have someone else in the US do the winning now?
Trump said trade wars were easy to win. It appears once again he is ignorant of all things based in reality.
2
I have a feeling that a person could win the office of president if they only promised to see to it that Trump, Bush & the criminals they brough to DC with them were prosecuted and jailed for the crimes they have committed against the United States and nothing else.
3
Where is the massive recession Paul?
Better questions for you: where is the promised $4K in every pot from not middle class tax give-away? Where is the massive nationwide infrastructure project? Where is the peace plan for the Middle East? Where are the coal and steel jobs? Where is the North Korean Denuclearization Agreement? Where is an increase in the minimum wage? Where is the Chinese trade capitulation? Where is is 4-6% annual growth? Where is the cheaper and better health care insurance for everyone?
3
@samten171
I'm having to pay out a huge amount to the IRS this year instead of getting money back, because drumpf and his cohorts have eliminated so many deductions.
I make less than 100k a year so this hurts.
me and 11 million other people.
Recession to follow and let's not forget the month long " shutdown where so many suffered.
1
Hugging American flag by a Russian asset is the joke of the year.
2
Not so much “speaking loudly with a small stick”, more like “speaking loudly while being too stupid to know how a stick works”.
7
What a photo at the head of this column! Some politicians cynically wrap themselves in the flag. Mr. Trump wraps the flag in himself. Nothing could be more emblematic of this presidency. Oh, how blessed we are!
3
From the South of Latin America, I agree with Doctor Krugman. Whit Trump, we lost the idea of America as a model to follow. The trade war is not a war on trade, but a containment for China's development, so is not possible to get a deal, or a deal will be a short-time agreement.
2
"The Trump administration will, of course, trumpet the deal as a triumph. In reality, however, it’s much ado about nothing much."
Exactly like the NAFTA replacement, a lot of bombast and threats followed by a deal almost the same as what we had before. Mr. Trump is just like all other bullies, devoid of a more nuanced approach, so he has to claim victory by redoing what was already done. Getting a deal HE made is more important than a good deal.
2
Trump may be a terrible president in some ways, but there is no denying that he is an extremely effective agent of Russia. Within two years DT has threatened NATO, alienated our allies, undermined our economy, created deep disunity among Americans and perhaps permanently damaged our standing and leadership role in the world. In this first great "virtual war," the winner seems to be Russia.
3
China has become a scapegoat. The real villians are the corporations that have offshored their operations to cheaper labor markets where, also, labor is available as harsh slavery. There will always be searches and transfers sol the products can be made more inexpensively.
3
PK just doesn't get it. While he is correct about what just happened (the global trade order *is* breaking down), he makes the fundamental mistake of thinking that the global trade order that we all grew up under is the natural, preordained state of the world, and that Trump is merely a wrecker.
He makes the further mistake of thinking that we can go back to the way things were for the past seventy years, where the US sucked up whatever the rest of the world wanted to sell us in exchange for agreeing to let the US take the lead in running security against the Soviets.
The truth is that that world trade order was deliberately constructed, by the Americans, to serve a specific, time-limited purpose: to win the Cold War. Well, surprise; the Cold War ended thirty years ago, and the US is - belatedly - coming to understand that our relation with the rest of the world in regard to trade and security has to change.
If Canada or Mexico objects to the new terms, they can take their marbles and stay home. The UK, too, just got the message: they'll have to take chlorinated chicken. They need us more than we need them. In terms of energy, food and security, the US doesn't NEED the world, and especially the world outside North America.
True, in the part of the new sheriff in town, Trump is a very imperfect player. But, believe me, Hillary would have had to take on the same task. So stop the whining and get on with adjusting to the new reality.
We tend to forget that like most backward nations when stole much of England’s technology and a good bit of other nation’s.
Pushkin’s father as a boy was sent by Peter The Great to spend four years studying European steel and cannon making, ship building, and much else to help bring Russia to modernity.
How else do Nations catch up?
Patents were designed to foster innovation. Patent trolls have come to limit it and often to block the use of innovation lest a powerful business have to adjust to a new technology.
One reason we have so many outstanding Chinese scientists in our universities is that we want to ‘steal’ their knowledge.
2
@Ramon Reiser
Would you please list what outstanding discoveries these outstanding scientists have made?
Has the world learned anything at all from trade wars or trade agreements? Has America learned anything at all? I think the actions of trade delegations all over in the last two years has proven that there were disadvantageous positions that many countries feel trapped in, and it still is not clear what will become of any of the trade dispute spectacles. We have become so obsessed with the prose of punditry and the excoriating eviscerating words of the elitist experts that we have forgotten that there are "real" issues with foreign trade agreements, rampant industrial espionage, spying, and criminal access to trade secrets. All of which are subjects in any trade discussion. Trump is right on trade and even the Anti Trump novices know it. The problem is his undignified, pugnacious, boisterous, asinine, non-schematic approach to dealing with Trade. There is nothing pusillanimous about coming to the table to discuss the horrible hand that was dealt, even less cowardly to revisit the terrible hand that one deals themselves. Even if the result is stalemate, there was at least an open discussion about an issue that most seem to eager to ignore. At some point we need to eliminate the political acrimony regarding these issues and just deal with issues themselves. Fair trade is necessary for a global future no matter who is at 1600 Penn.
As a Canadian disgusted by how Trump is treating my country, the first thing I do when buying a product or service is to find out if it's American.
If it's American, I don't buy it.
104
@Christopher Except for newspapers. :)
7
@Christopher I agree. US milk has started appearing on our grocery shelves. Why would I want to buy their milk when our local dairy farms supply plenty for us already? I've called my local grocery stores accordingly.
19
@Christopher
Friend Christopher, our last presidential election was
stolen by a malignant man and the required minions
to get the job done.He is of America but he is arguably
not American in any form but birth certification The
rational world knows this. He will be gone soon,fallen
or pushed overboard, either and both by his own hand.
This good world will welcome our new president with
a very, very big party. PM Trudeau will be an honored
guest in Washington, as well as representatives of
our nation friends. We will not allow a crazoid to wreck
our country or yours,O Canada, and we will always
stand with you and by you.The desperate man in our
White House did not make the service or product you
refuse. We did. Be well, Christopher.
13
What a very silly photograph of trump hugging the flag, his phony, shallow version of patriotism on display. Does he not realize that true love of country and the well being of its citizens involves a lot more than a photo-op of his hugging the flag? Ironic and especially galling since he so determinedly avoided the draft.
3
We don't know what the final agreement will be. We've learned two things in the past few days. Before the Trump - Kim meeting, most press pundits were saying Kim was a better negotiator and Trump would cave just to get Kim's signature on paper. The issues were simple. No nukes, no sanctions. Probably after reading the predictions about how he would roll over Trump, Kim said no. Trump, replied, I'm out of here. Call me when you are ready to talk business. We also learned that China, who just saw Trump walk away, has the weakest growth in almost thirty years. We are their largest trading partner and buy 19.2 % of all their exports. High Tariffs on those products are not good for them. Mr. Krugman may think that having China remove tariffs from agricultural products is nothing but I doubt he lives off of farming. Trade problems with Canada and Mexico were nowhere near those with China. What Trump got from them, without much effort, is 100% better than previous presidents who did nothing and got nothing. Those, Mr. Krugman talked with, were probably not chosen because they would challenge him. They do use disparaging terms like “Nafta 0.8”, Mr. Krugman has a pretty low batting average with Trump. He predicted the economic fallout of a Donald Trump presidency would probably be severe and widespread enough to plunge the world into recession. Stock futures would drop 800 points, etc. etc. We will see. What ever Trump gets will be 100 % better than any previous president.
1
I don't know, but I think that Dr. Krugman is overweighting the opinions and attitudes of progressives, including academics. Trump did not create the nationalism that has been sweeping liberal democracies including Great Britain, France, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Italy, and so forth. If we try to make the point that Trump/US is qualitatively different then we end up with argument that relies on American Exceptionalism Life goes on. The choices I make in my own life are 100X more impactful on my outcomes than any government policy. That is what government and elites do not want the people to know. Knowledge is power.
2
We have also become a bully by our continued use of sanctions
against poor countries and their people.
Example is Venezuela with our sanctions on their oil production which affected the average person of Venezuela as much as it did the Oil companies.
We are now in the habit of punishing (with sanctions) other countries who refuse to dance to our "tune" or they refuse to cry "Uncle" when we turn the screws to up for more pain.
We seem to dole out more "sanctions"(punishment) than any other nation.
We are not all that perfect ourselves. Just take a good look at the last person we voted in as president of the united states of america.
4
I let me address the claim " people in the US are now able to buy cars at better prices than before" by EdH from CT
1. Did the price of the the Ford Focus fell when Ford moved
production from Wayne Indiana to Chongqing China ?
2. Is the Buick Envison, made exclusively in China notably
cheaper than SUVs made in the US ?
3. Is the Cadillac CT6 Hybride, made exclusively in China,
at wages 1/6 th of US workers cheaper than CT6
models made in the US ?
The answer is no, no and no
So , who pockets the wage differential ?
Corporations - not consumers
How do you think Apple got to have $245 billion cash on hand ?
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/apple-now-has-tk-cash-on-hand.html
11
@Woof
Thank you - you nailed it
Apple could easily pay 10% , still make profit, and keep the price constant. And the US deficit would be reduced :-)
2
The formula is beautifully true ...
Americans claim to be abused by Europe : special products and their protection, intellectual leadership, social advancement, medical ethics, technological refinement, ecological conscience and applications , etc... but they invade the world with their corporations without any scrupules for cheating . Pay zero taxes in Europe for Apple, Yahoo, Google, Amazon, Netflix, Starbucks, Facebook, etc... fiscally registered in Europe not in the USA . But they also invade with bad industries like Monsanto and the disastrous ecological effects of industrial mono culture practiced with billions of tons of pesticides and fertilizers destroying the planet .
2
All of this discussion evades the basic issue. The US has a chronic imbalance of international trade. We spend more than we earn. We have gotten away with that because the US dollar is used as the world reserve currency. The central banks of other countries hoard those extra dollars to use in the expanding trade between their own countries. Eventually that must come to an end. Some international unit will be devised to replace the US dollar as the international unit of exchange. Then the US dollar will crash in value vs. that new unit and imports that crowd our retail shelves will grow very expensive after we have become very dependent on them. We could begin preparing for that day now and mandate a system of balanced trade for ourselves. That could be done by granting US exporters $ trade credits that US importers must buy on a regulated exchange before releasing $ to pay for their imports. It was proposed years ago by Warren Buffett. Special interests in Congress blocked it. That is documented fact! Few want to hear that, even though they know that it is true. One wonders about Dr. Krugman.
1
Let's not forget that cheap Chinese goods flooding the US was never a sound economic strategy, and never will be. Despite economists' denials, it has ravaged multiple sectors of the economy, devastated the working class (and hurt others), and, ironically. is in part what got Trump elected. Cheap imports hurt more than help, always.
3
I want to point out a detail in a link provided by Krugman http://www.econ.ucla.edu/pfajgelbaum/RTP.pdf which leads to a 72 page study by people from Yale, the World Bank, and UCLA detailing the economic effects of the Trump Trade War.
In particular, note that in section 3.2 "Foreign Export Supply and Import Demand" which details the **profit maximization problem**:
max [p(ig) ∗ m(ig)] − (1/(ω*+ 1)) ∗ (δ(ig)^^(ω*+1))/Z*(ig)
FULL STOP. Does anyone reading Krugman's piece right here, right now, believe that anyone in the Trump administration, up to and including the Don himself -- who supposedly prides himself on the art of making money -- for a second believe that the Trump administration even did so much as doodle on a napkin -- much less consult experts -- on what might be the effects of a trade war?
This administration is like putting a three-year old boy in the driver's seat of a bulldozer at a construction site with the transmission engaged. The panicked workers run around screaming for him to steer away from things, but everything they point for him to avoid he steers toward with a maniacal grin on his face. He loves it, exults in the destruction. "See my Power!" He even takes out the site manager's trailer for good measure. All the other 3-year-olds shout with glee at the goings-on as they feel the power of forceful agency resonating in their bodies.
How long 'til this thing runs out of fuel?
Muehler, House Judiciary Committee, hurry up please.
8
How come the flag fetishists who fall over onto the fainting couch over flag lapel pins not being worn by public officials aren't screeching and wailing about the idiotic display of blatant flag disrespect shown in the photo that accompanies this article?
From https://www.almanac.com/content/american-flag-etiquette-rules-and-guidelines
"On a platform, the flag should be above and behind the speaker, with the union uppermost and to the observer’s left."
"When displayed from a staff in a church or auditorium, the flag should occupy the position of honor and be placed at the speaker’s right as he faces the audience."
I guess the actual rules and regs regarding flag respect only applies to non-Republicans. The American Legion's silence has been deafening.
3
Like the Wall Trump's trade war was a gimmick he used to inflame emotions to get elected. Remember this is the man whose Trump brand of clothes were made in other countries and the steel for his casinos from China. Heck, even Trump hats in his hotel gift shops are made in Bengladesh.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/made-america-pres-trump-products-ahead-made-america/story?id=56757072
You are giving too much credit in believing Trump had any interest in economic policy when invoking his trade war. This all about creating chaos to make it look like he's tough and getting things done then backing down and distracting everyone with another controversy. This is all just a big con.
3
I'm sure James Madison is rolling over in his grave:
"Why the heck do you think we put the impeachment clauses in the Constitution in the first place? If our idea of the electoral college doesn't work out and it somehow puts a malevolent imbecile in the White House, you impeach the guy (or someday, maybe a woman)!
"You don't let him fiddle while Rome burns, and you sure as heck don't let him throw fuel on the fire or start it in the first place. Your Congress gets rid of the monster. And if that impeachment process fails -- or is never tried -- then good luck, future America. You'll need it."
3
The same shell game that Trump has used all his life. The accommodating loser(s) are the entire American population. Say thanks to the fools who put Trump in office. Your hat is the only thing you will ever get from this guy.
3
@Mark And the hat costs $25--more if you want it in pink or camo.
That photo : “ Patriotism is the last refuge of a scroundrel “ -Samuel Johnson. An everlasting TRUTH.
5
But, Dr. Krugman, all Donald Trump ever wanted to do was posture and point and smear and threaten and bully. He is a lot like the overgrown kid in fourth grade who was held back a year because he’s a dullard and he gets his kicks from shoving around those who are younger and smaller. It’s what he is.
It’s what the high range cattlemen and the farmers in the Upper Plains thirsted for. They hated President Obama and saw, in Trump, a “real American,” a president who would bend over backwards for them; fight for the supremacy of their foreign markets and domestic subsidies. After all, wasn’t the rooster-haired real estate dealer you know, a “dealer?”
So now that China has pushed back against America, knowing a fool when it sees one, and is so very grateful to him for exiting the Obama Trans-Pacific Partnership, thereby opening up the flexing markets of the Pacific Rim to China, well, why wouldn’t they give a little when they’ve received so much in return—for very little?
Of course, the president’s MAGA hordes will view it all as a win-win, America’s taking back its own, etc., etc. When you’re in over your head, it’s hard to swim. And his latest body-slamming debacle in Hanoi has demonstrated to any nation that once cherished us as a friend that an alleged criminal family is in charge here. “What’s your price?” they might ask.
Trump has hung out our soiled unmentionables on the public line. And everyone is laughing at us.
I guess that’s what all that winning is about.
2
Paul: Xi is a bully. It takes a bully to get anywhere with XI
1
@Lore I think the point is that Trump didn't get anywhere with Xi.
3
I hate two pictures. One is Jane Fonda laughing as she sets on a North Vietnamese anti-aircraft gun, the other is the cowardly draft dodging Trump with his bone spurs hugging the US flag.
3
What a disgusting photo-op by Trump at the lead of this article. Trump thinks America belongs to him and perhaps it will .....
1
Patriotism the last refuge of scoundrels. And our Quisling president is as big a scoundrel as they come. He lacked only kissing the flag to show how great a patriot he is, especially for a man who dodged the Vietnam draft. 2020, 2020, 2020!
4
Professor Krugman has outdone himself. This piece is just delicious.
The Trump Doctrine: Talk loudly but carry a small stick."
The Village People Agreement:
Donald, there's a place you can go,
Donald, when you're down on your dough,
Donald, you can let'em all know
That you're such a big man and so...
USMCA...
3
The author is correct!
1
"AMERICA" would end..."
Mr. Krugman...America is a CONTINENT! I know when you were growing up, people were not aware, but I am here to wake you up, Sir.
1
@HoldYourBreath
I beg your pardon but the continent is called North America and includes 3 countries: Canada, The United States and Mexico. Canada geographically is the largest.
Is there any public political act more obscene tan Trump ingloriously hugging the flag?
5
Sad that there was no reference to "Courage, the Cowardly Dog."
I mean, c'mon, Gail Collins still routinely works in Mitt Romney's dog.
Come on now...I'm sure the final trade agreement will at least include a clause that requires Xi Jin Ping to book a week at a Trump hotel. Art of the Deal!!!
1
World knows Trump is a fraud. 38% who adore him? Never. Ray Sipe
Wilbur Ross cannot be forgotten when discussing
So what you are saying is that the US should have just let China continue unchecked (as previous administrations did) with putting high tariffs on US imports, stealing intellectual property, amassing a large trade imbalance, and manipulating currency to gain economic advantage. I think if the Trump administration did that, you might have something to say about it. You sir are a hypocrite.
2
Wouldn't surprise me to see our Fake Patriot and Premier Draft Dodger pose the same photo at Arlington National Cemetery on Memorial Day as seen accompanying this opinion column.
1
So much winning/whining I'm sick of it.
2
In the Trump world, you shake everything loose, roots and all, and replant just a few things -- then declare victory. He has his name on it, which (apparently) is what matters. Reputation issues, etc., will be someone else's problem.
2
GOP self-created disaster response:
1. Relabel disaster "tremendous progress."
2. Blame the media.
3. Hug the flag.
4. Gift billions to millionaires and billionaires.
5. Create more disasters.
5
At least the U.S. will save money on Trump’s Presidential Library. Only two books - “The Art of the Deal” and “ How to be a Boardroom Bully While Making America Look Stupid”.
3
"we talk loud but carry a small stick"
That, in a nutshell, is trump for ya.
2
“The lesson for the world is that America can’t be trusted. “
...under Trump.
1
Follow the “Trump Tower” link at the end of the 5th paragraph from the end to learn (again) how horribly financially conflicted/corrupted Trump is, then ask yourself if anyone, especially this man, could make a decision that wasn’t based in self-interest.
1
Trump sells crises and and conflicts.
"As Seen On TV"
1
Until and unless you denigrate Tump as someone who wrecks things then goes back, gets nothing but declares victory...it is the 4th estate that is complicit.
@Mogwai
Isn't that what this article is about?
You may have missed it, President Trump, and the US WON...
I know, bad news right democrats, the US winning and all
1
News flash – the rest of the world has always known that “America can’t be trusted.” Now it's just more clumsy. (love “Village People Agreement!” ☺)
1
Trump is a classic case of a person who never got any love, any empathy and also never got any meaningful education to think logically and with compassion. His corrupt business practices made him worse and brought him in proximity with similar type of people. Trump takes any expression of love and friendship as weakness while trying to please his enemies and belligerent dictators with kindness and respect in a hope to get love. Objective assessment of any job (and stetting goals and means to achieve it accordingly) or relationship seems to be beyond his grasp.
The worst part- he can not separate private lives either and treats his friends, children and even wife (past & present) the same way. His approach to the job as a president is no different.
1
The choice for me in the last presidential election was between the lesser of two evils, which is the basis for my choices in all elections when I believe I can make a clear choice.
In this case, the choice was between between an often corrupt and self-serving Hillary Clinton who more or less represented my ideological preferences (if the political winds weren’t blowing so hard as to push her in anther direction) and Donald Trump, who is simply an abomination.
What he touches typically either breaks or dies whether it’s personal or political. He knows no shame and is willing to inflate his ego at the expense of the country and most of its citizens. His judgement as to what constitutes success does not depend any simple conception of trying to do no harm, upon an almost always ill-conceived and poorly defined metric of “winning”.
By any standard that I regard as both meaningful and positive, Trump has lost the trade war that never should have been.
1
Dr. Krugman keeps talking about the world's attitude toward the country. "an agreement with the U.S. is really just a suggestion," . "On U.S. unreliability...". "The lesson for the world is that America can’t be trusted.". "tells the world that the way to deal with America is not to bargain in good faith"
I think sophisticated observers abroad are aware of the fact that (1) The big problem is Trump (2) Trump got into office by a fluke (3) Trump is in danger of being kicked out of office. That they should not be blaming all this messed-up diplomacy on the country but on a single idiotic person. Of course it's the country's fault that its Constitution allowed him to get so much power in the first place.
The rest of the world is capable of understanding the difference between the Democratic and Republican parties.
The rest of the world knows that the Republican party will install presidents who are unreliable, foolish, mendacious, easily rolled, and friendly to autocrats.
The rest of the world knows that enough American voters are susceptible to the siren song of nationalist authoritarianism.
But the rest of the world still knows that Democrats are not Republicans.
1
Not only that, but Canada, even though bashed by Trump for the specious reasons cited by Dr. Krugman, has committed to honor its extradition agreement with the US to send the
Chinese Huawei executive charged under US law to the US at high cost to Canada. China has since cancelled a huge canola purchasing agreement, arrested two Canadians for alleged spying as hostages and further threatens sanctions against Canada to pressure us to let her go. All this cooperation and Trump could care less. Many Canadians felt that Trudeau should have stood up to Trump's bullying tactics, not completed the stupid YMCA trade agreement and not arrested the Huawei executive at the request of the US until there is someone in the White House that treats us like a friend.
4
"On U.S. unreliability, consider the way the current administration has treated Canada, probably the friendliest neighbor and firmest ally any nation has ever had. "
This treatment of Canada, above all, has disgusted me. A national security risk, really?
The worst is not that I will long hold this administration responsible for such incompetence, but that Canadians will not soon forget such treatment, if ever. Look up how many Canadian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Afghanistan! Walk up to their National War (Remembrance) Memorial from Ottawa's city center and see first - the conflict "Korea" etched in the stone. Shame on this president.
4
Why in the world has Congress abdicated its responsibility to set tariffs to such an incompetent and dangerous POTUS? Understanding the impact of tarrifs on the economy is complex and far reaching in ever increasing global trading. Shame on our representatives who have failed to manage the public purse.
1
“Protectionist trade policies cost American consumers and importers $1.4 billion a month at the end of 2018, according to a new study.” —Business Insider
Thanks a lot, President Stable Genius. Great job.
4
The Village People should feel insulted by NAFTA 2.0, named USMCA. If Trump isn't gay, this surely says he is. Meanwhile, billions needed to bail out farmers.
I really believe he renamed nafta to usmca so he could posture as a tough guy and claim that it really stood for United States Marine Corp of America.
Dr. Krugman's argument relies on a worldview that is increasingly obsolete. I suggest that Dr. Krugman spend a little more time researching the long range economic/social/political history of China.
It is the consistent Chinese strategy to always always always meet percieved "weakness" with a show of "strength".....as well as to meet "strength" with a show of percieved "weakness"......but the Chinese initiative never, ever waivers.....
China is already, whether we admit it or not, the worlds largest (strongest) economy. Under the Xi Jinping Leadership..........China is the irresistable force of colonization and world domination.....
If Trump blusters "strength" China will feign "weakness" until such time as it once again gains the upper hand.
Dr. Krugman proposes meerly surrendering the upper hand in compliance with an ill advised, late 20th Century TPP Trade Arrangement written by narrow focused, Wall Street opportunists, who enthusiasticly sell'em enough rope to hang us with..........
1
Everyone please note, Drumpf is Grabbing The Flag By The Fringe.... displaying as much respect for the flag and our country as he has for Stormy Daniels....
“Global economy that depends on American leadership”.
Is that a joke?
2
Talking about "who is on first", China can amass the largest armed force at the present time. It's size surpasses all.
China doesn't appear to be a sleeping giant, it is one.
Does no one in that CPAC audience see the irony of a five time draft dodger wrapping his hands around the flag---Trump takes snake oil salesman to a new level.
3
Demagogues hug the flag - some literally - while talking without end, coherence or purpose beyond keeping their mindless followers at a fever pitch of adulation. Trump is all that and more. If there is a coherent plan in place to stabilize our economy and our relations with allies and neighbors, it is well hidden beneath the bluster. Will we survive until his exit, or will we watch Trump's deteriorating mental state further erode until even the GOP must act? 2020 can't come soon enough.
One way to restore our credibility and good name is to quickly punish Trump, his gangster family, and his criminal associates asap. Stiff penalites are in order. We must then reverse course on literally everything 45 has done. He has not done a single correct thing. Not one. It will take a while to fix.
1
The world has been taking advantage of the US for years, however we set it up that way. Businessmen knew what they were getting into when they starting sending our jobs to China for cheap labor, politicians knew that we were sending US dollars to fund foreign militarys we would someday have to face. The enemy of our enemy is our friend is most times worse than the enemy we don't face directly. If all Trump was is a buffoon that went around shaking up the old establishment, then I could get on board, he is very successful at that. Look at the photo here, what an embarrassment we have as a president...
The trade war with China is right and well-advised; the warrior is wrong and crazy. And cowardly.
Yet, we do indeed have a trade problem with China (human trafficking, illegal drugs and guns, stealing of intellectual and other property, funding of illicit businesses, shady property deals, fraud, and others).
Would the good doc enlighten: How do you deal with this if you rule out any stern action people might term 'war'? If the good doc thinks we can talk to China without a big stick, and show we are unafraid to use the big stick, and use the big stick, we are going to lose this one.
When I say 'lose', I mean China will own significant assets not just in Australia, Africa, Central Asia, much of the sea routes, but then will use this to strangle free trade, feed Maoist insurgencies that aim to destabilize, and what not. Or please ask any SE Asian country (where China owns quite a few of the politicians).
Every previous president has demonstrated a total lack of spine when it comes to China (Nixon, Kissinger wholly more interested in controlling USSR, the latter in personally profiting from the connections he built there). China pretty much owned us for the 12 years of Bush rule. Obama overestimated his charisma, it did not work with China. Now we have an undisciplined, crazy bull in the china shop.
What, pray tell, should America do? The notion of doing "nothing" is not really an acceptable way to behave in this matter.
Maybe someone told Trump that if he wants a deal with his North Korean lover,he’d better back off on China.Maybe someone told him that China’s trade with the EU is bigger than with US.Maybe someone told him that Chinese trade with other Asian countries is bigger and growing.Maybe someone told him about China making all sorts of deals,military and otherwise,in the Middle East.Maybe someone told him that he is being played for the fool he is.But I doubt it.He just continues to fiddle while our potential world trade opportunities burn.And he will call this a “ great victory....the greatest ever.”I think Trump may actually be a Chinese asset....forget about the Russians.
1
Bankruptcy as a business model. Shafting the banks, the contractors, and employees (no doubt). When this guy hugs our flag, I want to call 911.
2
“Talk loud and carry a small stick.” That exactly sums up our president in several ways. Let’s see those SAT scores!
Why in the world would anyone assume that a New York real estate mogul (not even an A-list player) would know ANYTHING about the national economy, let alone the world economy? Time and time again, Trump has demonstrated that he's a blithering idiot on the world stage, yet his voters still believe that he is "sticking it" to other countries--friend and foe alike. When those voters start losing their jobs, will they still vote for Trump in 2020? I fear they will. Trump is not the only one who refuses to learn from his mistakes.
When China takes over, after stealing our IP, and capturing all communications with Huawei, y’all will still be blaming Trump. Progressives: free-trade, free borders, free-loaders, free stuff, free college, free-for-all. But little freedom.
1
" we talk loud but carry a small stick"
Oh Krugman, it's not nice to reference Trumps physique that way!
Trump governance: Toddler in chief has a meltdown and lashes out in destructive fashion. Adults try to assuage him. He doesn't listen. He gets spanked. He screams louder. He gets a little of what he wants, but loses even more. He withdraws to his room to watch TV all day. Adults can't wait until he leaves their house for good.
As long as Donald Trump imagines that tweeting and speaking nicknames and slurs while watching Fox News and playing golf is fighting then America can expect to do a lot of losing while being punked and played and laughed at and ignored. And that is a very good thing.
Imagine if Trump were Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Putin sends his foes to hospitals, mental institutions, prisons, urns and coffins. Imagine if Trump was Kim Jong Un. Kim starves and mass murders his people while executing his uncle and killing his brother.
1
A counter to china was what ttip was for. To isolate china in trading and have more leverage when all trading partners work together. Trump immediately killed it and started antagonizing each trading partner individually. Successful negotiations require leverage, now all partners are outbidding each other to maintain trade with china. I have no doubts that this “new” trading agrrement will have no teeth. Hasn’t the trade deficit increased under trump?
I am presently in asia witnessing china taking over what was once trading neutral. Chinese money is everywhere and dominating relations. The usa needs to step up again with soft power ($$) and stop thinking the military is the solution to all problems. If china is doing most of the investing here, who do you think they will to look to in the future?
At present, the usa has no plan to counter chinese investment. That is the real threat. Western tourists are now a minority. Skyscapers and highways built with chinese capital. I am witnessing the future if trump continues to antagonize our friends and allies.
Do you know how many $100 bills are used in asia and what would happen if people no longer wanted them.....
Although Krugman somewhat glossed over NAFTA 2.0, despite Trump's empty rhetoric about how he "won" the fact is nothing has been signed yet and there is still a good chance nothing will. Steel and other tariffs continue to exist, especially between Canada and the U.S. and as time drags on, there is increasing pressure from parliamentarians that until the tariffs are removed, Canada will not sign the agreement and with their new government in place Mexico is thinking much along the same lines. It is hypocrisy to call it a free trade agreement when substantial tariffs continue to exist between the parties involved and only a Trump administration would honestly believe that nonsense.
As usual all we see is story after story about discussions and predictions yet, NONE of these so-called "agreements" have ever been put in place nor is there a timetable for doing so. Meanwhile, the sacrificial lambs of American farmers and other businesses continue to grow and Trump could not care less.
1
So much winning?
Nations such as Brazil and Viet Nam are quite happy with trump trade wars.
Paul, you act as if this is something new. We have been bullies non stop since the end of WWII both militarily and fiscally. How many examples would you like: on the military side we have Iran, Iraq, Libya, Egypt in the M.E., Chile, Argentina, Brazil, Panama, Venezula, Vietnam, Korea, Ukraine all countries we either attacked directly, with our clandestine forces( in Chile and throughout the Americas ) or by fiscal pressures such as the current sanctions in Venezula and Iran that are designed with one purpose in mind, to overthrow the existing government and insert one more to our or our multinationals liking or adhering to the wishes of those whose money elected our representatives. What I find truly frightening is when the changing of the guard comes and America is no longer relevant just how long are the memories of the nations we abused along the way not to mentioned what does it say about us when we treat our very best ally Canada with such disdain, Canada an ally in the truest sense not a parasite, like some supposed “allies”, particularly in the Middle East, that drain the resources of our nation to further their own agenda, offering little in return. Sorry Paul we were bullies long before Trump showed up and sometimes for much less than is at stake today, like bananas and copper in the fifties and sixties in the lower America’s, or more currently sanctions to allow financiers and hedge funds to profit from distressed debt, our behavior has been reprehensible.
3
@Ted
Thanks. For a young country, we've got a rich history.
This boils down to the same thing as Trump's government shutdown: nothing accomplished, with a lot of people getting hurt and our country losing its status as "exceptional".
It is hard to be a bully if you are not really that big and string. Exports to the US are 5% or less of a Chinese GDP still growing 6% a year. Important but not dominant. In fact the US is highly dependent on many Chinese exports. And many parts of US industry is dependent on China for sales and especially for growth. I think Trump misjudged the hand he was playing, and had to get out with all he could,
I think this has been true in every fight Trump has picked. His cards, his support, his power is not what he expected. His “wins” are things Republicans would have sought and accomplished whomever was president
The shame is that we have such a rude buffoon in the key role. America will not be made stronger by more greatly dividing us. We are not made stronger by stoking racial and ethnic tensions. We are not made stronger by increasing economic inequality. We are not made stronger by alienating allies. We are not made stringer by damaging the global economy.
It may stroke Trump’s ego and make him feel strong. It may build a defensive wall around the republican party power. But it weakens America
Maybe a new hat for 2020. A yellow hat emblazoned MAWS—Make America Weaker Still. Politically incorrect but a touch of honesty Has a nice ring to it
Just a footnote on "China's systematic expropriation of intellectual property".
For expediency, China sometimes overlooks the numerous, often trivial, patent and copyright protections that impede American enterprise.
Over-generous, over-extended patents and copyrights may be incentive for creators, but they are also incentive for lawyerly plundering, and massively disincentive for enterprise in goods and services.
We need drastic revision to patent and copyright processes and protections.
1
So far, Dr. Krugman, your predictions about Trump's effect on the economy have been wrong. Beginning before he was elected, have you ever been within even spitting range of being right? His bullying tactics worked on Mexico and Canada but of course Democrats must find a way to not ratify. His bullying tactics have worked on the Europeans both economically and in NATO. North Korea has stopped rocketing and nuclear testing, the Chinese are backfooted in their strategy to lead the world. Trump has recognized that the Chinese economy is hugely leveraged by debt at 300% of GDP and is using a tariff tactic to pressure them. There are no friends and enemies in foreign affairs, only interests, common and opposing. Trump is all about the economy, jobs and making money.
3
Trump does not understand the most basic principle of leadership, trust that enables people to freely join with a leader in challenging endeavors. He thinks that fear is the operating emotion in effective control in endeavors. It means that he makes himself ineffective as a leader.
5
I'm pretty sure if China wanted to squash the US economy like a big, they could have done it easily. I can't say the reverse is possible in spite of what Trump thinks.
By asserting that we are not reliable and we are easily rolled, Krugman neglects the imperatives of trade in the 21st century. America cannot afford to be a hard-core free trader all the time and at all costs while other countries take advantage of our naivete. Trade theories of the past century are less applicable today in the face of guerrilla economic warfare of tackling, blocking, and maneuvering that other countries are shamelessly using to our detriment.
4
Trump's motto should probably be "Change, change, to stay the same"... "or worse."
He already is showing it in International Trade; although he lowered the rich's taxes and increased the middle class taxes, eliminating deductions: a mirage; people began to receive bigger weekly checks, but they will pay them back, with shark interests in the tax return.
Another example of Trump breaking something then fixing it -sort of - and taking credit for fixing the thing he broke.
5
Unable to MAGA, the policy is to cripple competitors by any means including tariffs, sanctions and political prosecutions.
It will only destabilize the world further and reduce the welfare of all.
4
I have never fully understood the beef that Trump and many Republicans have with Canada. I know some are simply seeking a corporate competitive advantage over our northern neighbors, but the political issue they present is fear among the cultural rightwing that any success in even a mildly socialist neighbor might cause Americans to question the foundations of today's Republican Party.
5
I'm sure it is a swimming success in that it will boost Trump's poll numbers, which is the only real purpose for anything he does.
1
the way to close the trade deficit is for americans to spend less money. of course that would have serious ramifications in the domestic economy.
1
Another way to reduce the trade deficit is to put pressure on China to open its markets to U.S. companies, but since that is the strategy Trump has embraced, most NYT readers will treat such a strategy as the doings of the devil himself.
The damage was done the moment America sold its soul and elected this man-child as President. He is a bully who has spent his whole life walking around with the swagger of the overly-entitled rich kid that he is. He only knows how to best those he enters deals with and he has done that by utilizing the economic leverage he has over them and ruthlessly calculating how much it would cost the other side to hold him accountable.
That so many Americans continue to lie to themselves and willfully believe this charlatan is an enduring shame to our country.
23
If you read some fringe news sources, in which committed Trump supporters express themselves forcefully in comments , you will see that nothing he could do would change their alliegence, nothing. This could prove to be a problem when, one way or another, his reign comes to an end.
1
@John Ayres
It will be a problem mainly because there is no longer a Republican Party because they and Trump supporters are now a member of a cult and we all know how members of a cult think.
This column reminds me of something my father once said, even though I can't remember what the topic was: "That's like hitting yourself in the head with a hammer because it feels so good when you stop."
Thanks, Paul, for the memory of dear old dad!
10
Trump’s SOP:
Create the crisis with other country(s), then after making tons of threats and noise start negotiations, then make some minor tweaks to existing treaty or agreement but basically return to previous status quo, and then claim huge victory.
We have seen that with NAFTA, North Korea, NATO, Transatlantic Trade....
16
My daughter tells me I spend to much time on trump’s erratic politics. I’m told I should pay less attention.
I tell her she should pay more attention. Long after trump is gone, and I’m gone, the US will be dealing with the ill will, bad decisions and unreliability this president has shown the world and then boasts about it.
I travel the world and used to feel good about being an American. Now the first question I’m asked is, “Did you vote for trump?” And while I did not, I’m embarrassed that some of my fellow Americans bought into the trump con and it’s so obvious to the majority of the world.
20
@KLKemp As we also undo the damage done by George W. Bush. The GOP has been leading us down the road to ruin for decades. This time they've abandoned all pretense of respecting democracy and gone with a full-out dictator.
1
@KLKemp
It has been discussed by many experts that Trump is a symptom of a gradual forty year problem of corporate America gradually taking over the reigns of government in which policy has been made to strictly serve their interests at the expense of everyone else.
Many who have been feeling Washington has ignored their needs during that time bought in to the Trump rhetoric that he was for the working man and was an outsider and if elected, "would drain the swamp".
The problem is, he just told people what they wanted to hear and as far as the swamp is concerned, anyone that looks at his business history will plainly see he has spent his life in the swamp up to his neck and enjoyed every minute of it.
1
@KLKemp
You might tell your daughter that if she's in need of healthcare in the future, she had better hope that the GOP and its Bible pounding base isn't in power, or she may have to go back to the good old days, where women were forced to have children according to State dictum. Eternal vigilance is the price of Choice.
1
This would be an article worth reading if Mr. Krugman wouldn't offered what should have been done in its stead. Nobody in America was fighting the Trade War that China has been waging since the 1990's. Nobody. In a first swing at the ball, China will open its markets and guarantee big purchases. So we didn't get everything is the lament? Awe, what a failure that must be, not to get everything. Never mind that Clinton, Bush & Obama got nothing, the measure by Krugman is get it all.
You're not getting a Socialist totalitarian regime to be open to the rules of outsiders, it's not happening. They may agree on a case by case basis to intervene, China isn't opening itself up to international courts in any way. China has built itself upon the creators in America, they know that. They're not shutting off their own Golden Goose. Great to aspire, but how about build up a bit more dependence upon us and maybe then take another swing at it?
China will come around on intellectual property. But not to protect our patents but to protect theirs. They are working diligently to surpass us where it matters. Green technology. They an keep the gadgets that they build anyway. But they will be producing the energy technology that the world demands and we will be following along because of the myopia of Trump.
4
@Constance Underfoot we could weaken the dollar. and we could all spend less money and save more. that would reduce the trade deficit with china. it would also likely tank the american economy, but a little pain is good for us, right?
2
Yet you read it and clearly misunderstood.
Here in my neighbourhood of Toronto people are shunning US produce in the grocery stores and buying fresh vegetables from countries other than the US even if it means more cost. Made in USA is being covered up on products as consummers shun them. A local milk producer had to explain that the new USDA sticker on their milk carton doesn't mean it was made in the US and only means it it has been approved by the USDA as people were boycotting it. Friends have cancelled their vacation to the US and are vacationing in Canada or going elsewhere. It's going to take a long time for world to ever trust the US again, a very long time.
Elections have consequences.
32
In New York, people were promising that our tourism industry would collapse when Trump was elected. Tourism has been breaking records, actually. I know you're angry about Trump tweets and such, but investors and people spending real money make their decisions using hard evidence and serious consumer preferences, and their decisions don't reflect your emotional tantrums.
5
Not emotional at all but a reasoned response to an authoritarian President’s willful ignorance of economics and an absence of common human decency.
10
@Jon International tourism to the US has been flat, at best. Importers, especially of agricultural products, are looking elsewhere. Many will come back but not all. Even with a new administration in 2020, can one enter into a trade deal with the US wondering if the election of another Trump like president four years later would reverse it all again.
The emotional tantrums are not coming from foreigners. They are just shaking their heads heads in disbelief at what has happened to a once great country.
11
Here comes Krugman--the Fake Economist, sporting his cloudy crystal ball.
So tell me Mr. Krugman; are you sure the agreement will be a failure? Are you as sure about it as you were when you forecast a crashing of the U.S. markets on the eve of Trump's election?
The truth is, things are not fine with our current agreement. We have allowed China the upper hand, in order to gain access to their market--and they have gotten used to the unfair terms. How unfair are the terms? Aside from the obvious evidence--a $500 billion plus trade imbalance, here are the other things China has been engaging in. They have:
--Imposed higher tariffs on our exports than we impose on theirs.
--Strong-armed our companies to make products in China--instead of in the U.S.
--Forced partnerships on U.S. companies which allow them to steal our intellectual property.
--Denied access to U.S. companies in banking, investments and other areas of business.
--Manipulated their currency to gain an unfair exchange rate--making their products more competitive, and ours less so.
Essentially, this is what Krugman is arguing, "The current trade agreement is fine. Keep the status quo. Allow China to continue to cheat, bully, manipulate and steal".
I suspect collusion--between China and Mr. Krugman. It's the only reason I can imagine--for why he bashes our President--while providing cover to a cheating regime.
Mr. Krugman is no longer an economist. He is a member of The Resistance.
7
China strong armed US corporations to manufacture in China?
How did that work? US companies have been gung ho to produce in Asia since the sixties when Japan was making cheaper and yet better products. No enouragement needed.
Predictably misunderstanding the message.
@Jesse The Conservative your president. putin's president. xi's president. kim's president. not our president.
I'm reminded of Dr. Krugman's articles excoriating the GOP for criticizing the speed of economic recovery under Obama, after the GOP had pushed back against the size of Obama's proposed bailout/stimulus. Now Dr. Krugman says Trump hasn't achieved enough in his trade war, after the Dems have worked to thwart Trump's trade strategy at every turn.
I could insinuate that the Dems are bribing Dr. Krugman to be so one-sided, but there are enough unfounded insinuations of bribery in this opinion piece already.
2
The current economy owes its success to the foundation it was built on. And that is the Work we did from 2009-2016. Trump is sowing the rot that will take it down. All we have now is the sugar high of tax cuts. And most of that is going into stock buybacks and rent seeking investment.
You have put your hope in a con. That’s always a bad bet.
The point of the article is that Trump made a very expensive trade war and the results will be pretty much what we started with. The concession will not be worth the cost. And we already have a model. The New Nafta Agreement, which is the old Nafta Agreement.
4
Yes, Trump will cave and we'll be back at square one on China trade. Actually below square one because our pig farmers and soybean growers have been hurt and some driven out of business (Brazil is now the biggest exporter of soybeans to China. The supply chains of auto makers and other companies that used steel and aluminum have been disrupted. American consumers have had to pay more for goods that became more expensive because of Trump's tariffs. And the rest of the world no longer views us as a reliable trading partner.
14
I'm an economics major. I used to respect Paul Krugman's writing. But now he is no longer a disinterested, balanced-view commentator but quite partisan. For instance, I don't remember anything positive he's written about President Trump or the Republicans since Trump was elected--it's all negative.
I do remember, though, the night that Trump was elected Paul said the stock market was going to crash. Actually, as we know, it's gone up and is even soaring. I expect more from a Nobel prize winner.
7
But why is it soaring. It started with the strong fundamentals of the growth between 2009-2016. People dig out from their debt.
Now it’s a stupid tax cut. Companies are buying back their stock and keeping prices high by limiting supply. They are insulating themselves for the inevitable slow down. But you won’t be.
Wall Street is not the Economy. It’s just a part of it.
@Brian
What is there to be positive about concerning 45?
He knows tremendous (large?) people; the best dealmakers; the best people will fill his cabinet; he'll never take a vacation as his predecessor did (another lie); said Mexico would pay for that damned wall; he's going to drain the swamp (more hyperbole and another lie); no tax returns revealed; how many of these great and beautiful people are going to jail?
If you consider the above a good thing, I really feel for you.
@Margo Channing I'm not being positive about #45, per se, I'm just saying that I would prefer to look at economics apolitically. Paul Krugman is political in his comments, which is fine, but he's one-sided. I prefer to see both sides. Take LBJ, for example. He was very good for Civil Rights, but terrible for war and spreading Agent Orange.
In America, short term profit for the individual is all that matters (in this case that means the donald). It seems our emperor's vanity has been assauged by his bullying and his pockets are slightly fuller so it's a win. The rest of us that are paying higher prices for appliances and higher taxes because we're not rich really don't matter, see. Ain't America grand?
11
The Trump presidency has turned the tables on China’s unfair trade practices and global misconduct, and even hesitant allies like Canada are on our side. Beijing says the Chinese economy grew at 6.6 percent last year, the slowest pace in 28 years, and many economists think the true rate is much lower. China’s National Bureau of Statistics has conceded that the manufacturing sector is contracting.
More broadly, China’s corrupt growth model seems played out. Foreign companies are waking up to the fact that China’s 1.3 billion consumers are essentially a mirage they can never capture. A trade deal to avoid tariffs with the U.S. won’t reverse the free world’s U-turn on China and may increase pressure on Beijing’s economic and political houses of cards.
2
It goes without saying that the same is true of the Iran deal, and the same is true of Trump's antipathy to NATO and attempts to withdraw from it. (He could very well still try it, even if it's just as a spiteful gesture on the way out).
This is one way in which the original movement conservatives differ from the next generation. People like Nixon and Reagan sabotaged important foreign policy negotiations for domestic political gain all the time (the 1968 peace talks being the most infamous). But once they were in power, they were still capable of carrying out similar negotiations themselves - for Nixon it was the opening to China and the original SALT, for Reagan it was the glasnost once a halfway decent Soviet leader rolled around - because they still recognized on some level that these things were important and needed to be done.
That's what's been completely lacking in Republicans starting, oh, I'd say the mid-nineties, but certainly the Bush administration. They still break things, but they don't build anything to replace them, and in fact seem largely incapable of building things even if they wanted to. The old guard subverted the national interest for political gain, but they still knew on some level that there was a difference. The current ones subvert the national interest just because, and actually believes that they're doing something important and meaningful.
3
What amazed me about the last 4-5 years was even Democratic opposition to the TPP. From my standpoint that agreement, forming a block of countries that together could force China’s hand, looks amazingly attractive.
5
Is this the new Republican strategy? Damage the economy early in the term, then reverse some part of the damage and hail it as growth?
13
I wouldn’t go so far as to say that in the view of the wide world America can’t be trusted. This, because I refuse to concede that Trump is America. Indeed, in his disgrace he is her opposite. As for what “winning” actually means, Trump shows what it’s not if mere unilateral gain is considered as metric. But that leaves the question of what “winning” really is, particularly in the context of morality and decency. That has been an unresolved problem for America long before Trump.
4
Trump has been misguided in thinking that trade can be weaponized and used instead of real diplomacy. North Korea , China and the rest of the world has reacted to Trump's approach by weaponizing their own economics and guess what...stalemates erupt.
It might be wise for Trump to put together a group that can advise him how diplomacy really works...but I am dreaming ...this will never come to pass as it is clear that he doesn't know how to listen and how to recognize good advice form the advice he is getting by way of Fox news !
4
Mr Krugman, I fully agree with your observation that the damage is already done. Less trust and less reliability.
Can you imagine what we Europeans think when we see Mr. Trump deliver a 2 hour rambling and completely bonkers speech at CPAC?
Trust and reliability have sailed away a long time ago. We simply cannot understand how this incompetent and corrupt man got to lead your country and how a large part of your people still see him as the messias.
It is mind boggling.
13
In another generation or so, the Chinese will have no need to steal technology from us or anyone else. They will train the computer scientists and system managers that they need while we continue to breed mathematical ignoramuses, consumer addicts, and trump cultists.
8
What is truly dismaying is that most of the Republican party seems blind to the diminishment of the USA's standing in the world . PK is right that, as heard through our Master Dealmaker, the US now speaks loudly and carries the limpest of small sticks. Thanks to Trump, we have all become deplorable in the eyes of our allies, and contemptible in the eyes of our enemies.
11
Populists demagogues can mesmerize the naïve and reach power . After they are at the helm they will do a lot of damage to their respective countries . A historical parallel that comes to mind is Argentina under Peron . At the beginning of the 20th century Argentina was an economic powerhouse that rivaled even the USA . That is until Peron appeared . One bad decision after another brought Argentina down . The USA is such a powerful country that will withstand a lot of craziness and stupidity . Most probably Trump will be an aberration and the USA will continue to be the most powerful country in the World . But we should remember that the Titanic was not supposed to sink .
5
You have to wonder if, instead of Mr Trump’s rejection of multilateralism and honest cooperation with friends and allies, the USA might achieve much needed changes that would benefit America and the rest of the world. His attitude and methods have destroyed any faith that others may have had towards America and that applies to ordinary business dealings with ordinary Americans. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
5
I wonder how much was doled out in subsidies to the farmers who lost revenue as a result of this stupid trade war? I guess we all paid both higher prices and subsidies - a double whammy! Of course we WON!
5
If you’re reading Krugman’s analysis it the trade deal coming China keep in mind he doesn’t know what the deal is. Of course his raging case of TDS doesn’t stop him from spewing hate. It’s wise to remember this is the guy that told us if Trump was elected the stock market & economy would crash.
The fact is Trump has done what no President in 20 years has done. He’s taken on China & won. The deal won’t be perfect.
None are but it will be far better than the total surrender we got from both Bush & especially Obama. Krugman’s whiny vitriol is directly proportional the Trump’s success w China. It’s a huge win for the USA & this isn’t the end.
1
This has no relationship with reality.
“So much winning.”
I’m waiting for Pompeo or some other Trump sycophant to claim that Trump never said we’d be tired of winning.
He said we’d be tired of whining. And he was right about that.
2
The photo of Trump hugging the flag looks like a baby with a security blanket.
The man has never grown up. He effectively stamps his feet and tips over all his toys, but he just looks like a fool.
What an embarrassment.
7
@TheraP
Yes, I think that's why they selected it.
For those who despise America, and that is much of the world, Trump is manna from heaven. After decades of Americans fostering dictatorships in place of democracies, inflicting military coups, building military bases around the world at our convenience, and having little interest in the cultures, sensibilities, or interests of others, we finally have a spectacularly self-inflicted wound in the form of President Donald J. Trump that shows how deeply the rot has set.
7
Anyone that could bankrupt a Casino is NOT a businessman. He is either extremely incompetent OR an utter Fool. In this case, I’ll go with both. Why the surprise???
Seriously.
6
Without doubt, Donald Trump is a typical bully - all noisy huff and puff and empty threats with little tough physical action to back it up. I thought I'd never say this, but Trumps's cowardice could be a good thing, if certain foreign nations (and their civilian populations) are spared from invasion and death at the hands of US troops. In other words, there could be an upside to Trump's total lack of military experience (however trivial) and his obvious absence of courage and fortitude. I sincerely hope I'm right in this regard
2
@Fozter I also hope you are right. But his appointment of extremely aggressive sidemen is a troubling indication of his real instincts.
Paul, can you give us concrete examples of when America has not been a cowardly bully? For all his saber rattling, George W Bush's attack on Iraq was cowardly, it had no basis and it was based on lies.
6
@petey tonei Yes . When Bush 2 was reelected after fabricating grounds for a war resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths, it was a moment of despair for believers in the electoral system.
2
We should be thankful Trump didn't start any hot wars as he was a trouble kid whose father sent him to a military school that obviously taught him to fight everybody, even his own people, but who taught him to fight our allies?
3
Trump is the schoolyard bully who picks on his “best friend” to show the other kids how “tough” he is, knowing that, despite the bravado and bluster, he’ll never really fight with anyone as big as him.
It’s childish, as is the man himself.
It’s impossible to understate the resentment the Schoolyard Bully and his gang of GOP sycophants have created among Canadians. We truly want to like you, but you make it so difficult and so tiring that more and more often we just want to give up on our historic friendship. So far at least, we’re too nice and polite to do that,
5
WE don’t make it so difficult. Trump does. Learn the difference, or are all of you Trudeau?
Trump has been an absolute disaster for Canada. From his moronic tariffs on aluminum - in the interest of national security no less - to his disastrous handling of NAFTA, to his disgusting words about Canada's PM, the man is generally despised in Canada.
Good luck getting a coalition to do anything with Canadians in future. I will vote for the most anti-American candidate for PM in our fall elections, and I am sure I am not alone in this sentiment.
6
@Casey J.
So you're biting off your nose to spite your face. eventually sooner rather than later 45 will be gone and you'll be left with a PM who hates us. Hopefully the next POTUS will be more of an adult and will work well with others. Your current PM is another matter however.
The photo leading this article can also be construed as our flag and everything it stands for being strangled instead of hypocritically clutched. This, too, shall pass.
Vote.
2
Vulgar Trump is a bully indeed, a coward in disguise that, in addition, has no idea how international trade works. And given that he does not listen to those 'in the know', his capricious spite may go on destroying any necessary trust in international relations. Is this what is called 'divide to rein'? I understand that the U.S. presidency has much power, for good or ill, but why so much of the latter, under Trump?
5
"A world-class economist." And now "a hard-hitting writer of opinion pieces."
As an economist, Mr. Krugman, you're in the stratosphere. Way beyond me. Your record, sir, speaks for itself.
Hard-hitting? Keep it up! By all means, keep it up!
There is that small, fleeting hope, Mr. Krugman--do you share it? That this nation--that the world at large--will eventually recognize:
--the Trump presidency was a small though odious blip in the broad scheme of things. That this detestable caricature of an administration--is not really who we are. That eventually--long after Mr. Trump and that cadre of cronies, crooks, and time-servers--
--have bit the dust--
--the real America--wide-eyed, open-mouthed--will emerge as from hibernation. Contemplate the WRECK Mr. Donald J. Trump has made of domestic and international politics--
--and like those stalwart citizens of Johnstown, Pennsylvania (I just finished a book about that dreadful flood) knuckle down to the task of cleaning up and rebuilding.
Oh how hope this may be the truth, Mr. Krugman. We cling to the hopes we have. Hopes may be straws. But straws are better than nothing.
And I could be wrong. I contemplate today's GOP--a ghastly caricature of the old Republican party (though I know you're not a fan, Mr. Krugman)--and I think: how easy it is to WRECK things. Destroy things. Pull things down.
Rebuild things?
Talk to the citizens of Johnstown.
That took time.
A lot of time.
Putin’s puppet is doing what Putin wants. Shameful behavior. Treasonous behavior. Spreading chaos wherever he goes, whatever he touches.
2
If he cares so much for America, why isn't he focused on imprving our Schools, increasing Teacher's pay, protecting the Environment, improving access to affordable Health Care, increasing Social Security benefits for retirees, enhancing Voter access, protecting the Election process, taking care of Veterans, enhancing Cyber-security, punishing any country that cyber-attacks us, promoting freedoms and equality for all of our citizens????
Donald Trump lies as freely as he breathes.
He should keep his groping hands off of the flag.
It stands for everything that he is not.
5
Oh how I wish this nightmare of Trump is just a bad dream. How he became President, how he conducts himself and how our citizens tolerate him are beyond anyone's imagination.
Please tell me this is only a dream, Congress will dethrone him and our beloved country will regain her stature in the world....a date we will live in infamy.
2
The economic and political complexities are beyond any one person. Trump did not know this. You know, ‘He alone......’
So the complexity and speed of theses matters is compounded by most American’s need for consumption of easy palliatives. Trump gave these out with his entertaining, real man oratory. Many bored or unfortunately those desperately needing a break in life bought the sugar pills.
Caution progressives: if you bash him too much or suggest a whiff of big bureaucracies will solve problems, you will again lose, especially with our current electoral college system.
Wrap your message in FREEDOM and you’ll have a shot. Freedom comes in many forms which if communicated well, can win over enough MAGA folks to tip the scales. Obama did (until he let them down.)
1
Yes every deal Obama and previous presidents made were the worst deals in history. Trump deals on the other hand are the greatest deals the world has ever known by the greatest deal maker the world has ever known. A tv entertainer blowhard buffoon ,ignorant and erratic has the controls of our ship of state. Trump and Jared are busy enriching themselves and the GOP is looking the other way to get tax cuts for the rich and abortion bans. A demagogue hugging the American flag while bowing before our adversary Putin is the height of hypocrisy.
1
The world ha s to wonder “how could America elect such an incompetent liar and bully?” “How can any American still support this ignorant man? “. I wonder about this every day. The damage Trump has done globally and domestically will take generations to undo. He’s an illerate criminal and I am ashamed he leads this country.
3
I don't know but I'm getting that Atlantic City feeling in my bones.
Are there still people in America (apart from his base) who believe that Donald Trump knows anything about international trade? Or, funnier still, that he's anything but a moral coward?
2
Watching a bit of Trump on Stephen Colbert, it is clear that Donald is insane and more so his followers who were soaking his every lie.
1
Trump was prescient in a perverse sort of way: When it comes to Trump's version of winning, I am sick of it.
2
poor ol Paul just doesn't quite understand power and influence. But he does understand leftist media power and influence huh?
Unfortunately everyone around the world can spot this grifter much better than the American public that elected him and where he still has a 40% APPROVAL rating.
6
Competition is a byproduct of capitalism, but it should not be pursued for its own sake. In our sports, in our economics, and in our wars, we make everything a competition - and in competition, there are losers and winners. We have yet to learn to cooperate in a way that everyone wins, and that's a shame.
In the near future, we will program the human mind in the computer based on a "survival" algorithm, which will provide irrefutable proof as to how we trick the mind with our ridiculous beliefs about what is supposed to survive - producing minds programmed de facto for destruction. These minds would see the survival of a particular group of people or a belief as more important than the survival of all. When we understand all this, we will begin the long trek back to reason and sanity.
See RevolutionOfReason.com
2
Trump was right!!
I am getting tired of winning!
1
Trump has a foot. He has a gun (which he can use to shoot people on Fifth Avenue with impunity). He can shoot himself in the foot.
He does...
1
Whats cowardly about a trade war that will ensure free and fair trade without a single bullet being fired or a structure destroyed?You want examples of America acting as a cowardly bully in the past 100 years that cost millions of lives, bodily harm to life and limb , mass migration and destruction of infrastructure by bombardment just go back in history to the dropping of of nuclear bombs in 2 Japanese cities, the Vietnam war, the Iraq war, America's longest war in Afghanistan, The regime war in Yemen. The regime change Syrian war and the Libyan regime change war.
What do you think Kim of N. Korea was thinking when he is displaying a reluctance to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula? He is asking himself can America be trusted to leave him alone if he does not have a way to retaliate in a way America is vulnerable or would he meet the same fate as the Libyan leader who gave up his nuclear program for what? To be bludgeoned by a mob unleashed by the western powers and then have the audacity to say "We came, we saw and he died" That is cowardly bullying that the world has learned and will never forget, especially in Africa where Gaddhaffi was revered and loved.
1
Trump knows nothing about 'trade' - he only knows about 'just take' and 'claim'. He will sink in his own lying 'Quicksand' - unable to save family members (also good liars), his many dishonest corporations and himself.
2
As a twenty year veteran, I can just attest to how sickening all of this faux patriotism (Trump, the draft-dodger sexually assaulting our flag is a perfect image for his corrupt administration) is. What is wrong with these people who idolize Trump and wear the American flag on every piece of clothing imaginable (and some I'd rather not imagine.) George Carlin said: "Leave the symbols to the symbol-minded." Well, the entire conservative movement and Republican party have no intelligent thoughts and are the last people on the planet who should be telling those of us who have served, what is "American" and isn't. Trump is a coward, so of course he makes our entire country look like we are cowards--and the more and more who never lift a finger to actually serve, the weaker we will become with all of these weaklings (who love "strong men", meaning they love criminals and murderers and rapists) in charge.
3
"America the Cowardly Bully" And what other policies should one expect from a president who has exemplified this shameful description for his entire life?
3
Under Obama we slipped into this deficit. Where are the criticism over the ineptness of the prior administration?
One has to loved the selective truths liberal spout.
"less trusted, less respected and weaker than we were before"
You've hit it on the head... "America First" ... all others go to the back of the bus.
1
We’ve allowed ourselves to be lulled into letting this President meet privately with Putin.
Under the circumstances isn’t this enough to rally the congress? Oh! I forgot , the Russo- Republicans have smoked the covefe, taken the money, and sold their souls cheap—along with our reputation and future chances to thrive in a competitive world.
Now that he can’t do a whole lot more for the Russians, he’ll sell out to the Chinese or Saudis. Think tarrifs and nuclear technologies.
2
You are right, but it is frustrating when you talk about what “we” as America are doing, when it is really just Trump.
Where is the Dorothy who will throw water on this Wicked Witch of the West and melt her?
1
Why is anyone surprised by this defeat?
Trump is a child when compared against dictators like Xi, Kim and Putin. These strongmen have played in the no-quarters big league since the beginning of their political career. They understand the long game and how to move the pieces, take the hits, and still come out achieving their goals years down the road. What looks like a defeat to ignorant westerners can be a victory to their own subjugated masses.
Trump has ideas, but possesses neither the knowledge nor the experience to carry them from napkin to product delivery. In software engineering parlance, he doesn't even understand what is a prototype.
Trump also lacks the emotional maturity necessary to be a disciplined reader and learner. He thinks that if he thinks it, then it must be and will be. Typical of a spoiled brat. This severely hampers whatever intellect he possesses.
Normally, lackeys and cronies around wannabe dictator like Trump are the ones doing the real damage. Thankfully, Trump constantly usurps their effort by insisting on his way or no way, even when his way is getting nowhere. I hope he keeps getting in his own way.
It remains to be seen if a second generation of cabinet officials will take on roles like those assumed by Himmler, Goebbel, Eichmann and others and accelerate the destruction of the Executive Office.
2
All of the tariffs and bully-bluster with the rest of the world is just busy work for Trump--he would rather grandstand to his base than tackle the serious and pressing issues that confront us. He knows he will never get any attention by wading in to the murky depths of health insurance reform or, God forbid, by advocating policies that might make the US a more attractive nation with which to do business. His is "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
2
It would be laughable.... if I lived in some other Democracy.
Those that let their “tech” get stolen in China because they choose to manufacture there is not China’s problem. That’s American greed. If your tech is so precious, then get it made in America. Honestly, stop making The rest of us pay for the greed of a few. All of this trade war nonsense was completely unnecessary and has cost Americans far more than anything America will gain from a new deal. Trump hasn’t done anything but bluster. He blames other countries for the greedy practices of a few Americans and makes everyone suffer. His stupidity knows no bounds when it comes to actual policy. The only thing he knows is propaganda and lying. He has no independent thoughts apart from that. He lets the zealots control policy. But you can bet he and his family, already on record for getting special concessions from China, are doing just fine.
3
Trade wars are easy to win. There is an emergency at our border. I never had any business dealings with Russia. I will testify under oath 100% (like Comey did). Who knows how Khasslogi died? I take him at his word. Russia didn't invade Ukraine. Who knew that so much "harmless hyperbole" from our Potus might in fact be treacherous?
1
Nucor, Ferrolia is a gofling buddy of Trump for years. Does that answer any questions on Tariffs ?
When will our national nightmare end?
1
The national debate in Canada is to quit NORAD and rid itself of the USA which has professed itself a self dealer and an unreliable and non-committed “partner” against Russian aggression towards its Canadian “allies” .
1
What year are we talking about here, Mr K?
The last sentence of Paul's very informative essay seems to have lacked one word. An editing error perhaps?
Shouldn't it have read: "So much for winning!" to make more sense? Like all those wars with no end in sight and no victory; so much for winning.
Keep those great editorials coming. The pen can be a weapon for good.
So how does Trump spin these trade failures into "wins"? Gaslight and lie on state run media, Fox News. It's easy to keep a rabid base slobbering when Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham throw red meat during primetime every single night. Opinion news rants seem to have taken the place of the sitcom. Instead of shows like Cheers, Night Court and Seinfeld, Americans now watch Tucker Carlson humiliate someone who tries to present real facts about trade, about reproduction rights, Iraq, Iran, North Korea -- anything. Trump has his media soldiers planting lies, watering the seed every night. The cowardly bully and his gaslight lies are propped up and supported by Fox News.
2
Washing machines cost 20% more than last year for the same quality.
Will any fawning trump supporters listen? No - they think all is well in trumplandia.
Dumb and dumber.
Re: the photo at the lead of the article,
Talk about a disgusting display of a paper tiger wrapping himself in the flag.
This absolutely takes the cake.
How much longer?
China holds, and has long held, the ace in the deck - US government bonds. If China decided to sell its holdings US interest rates would skyrocket. Endgame. China holds off because it doesn't want to fatally damage the economy of its largest customer. But, sooner or later, if allowed to continue, Trump just might push things over the edge. But one thing has certainly resulted from his international posturing - other nations surely now know how to manipulate him. All you have to do is dangle personal enrichment opportunities. Wrap them in flattery and the bass is in the boat.
1
The greatest strength in our nation is that we can change our leader every 4th year, and China can't. One term president won't make America Great, and it will take many presidents to accomplish the task and vice versa. I don't worry about president Trump's trade war. In due time, we will decide whether to give him the second chance or not. For one thing, president Trump did delivery most of his promises whether we like it or not.
The "new" NAFTA is facing a rocky road to ratification in both Canada and Mexico in large part because of POTUS' bullying (steel and aluminum taxes on American consumers and manufacturers for instance). Good luck with getting it through a Democrat House too! Since the "deal" is little more than a few new clauses, it really doesn't matter much anyhow. The most important thing is to deny the bully his pyrrhic victory.
3
This was always the most likely outcome NAFTA was a non event. The Chinese figured Trump out long ago.
4
And let's not forget those coveted and difficult to obtain trade licenses China has granted Ivanka to enable her to sell her personally branded products there....
6
You write "public opinion has become much more pro-free trade under Trump." Would you acknowledge this as something good Trump has achieved?
@wt
Er...that was not his goal. LOL
6
Right on the money: “The whole world now knows two things about us. First, we’re not reliable — an agreement with the U.S. is really just a suggestion, because you never know when the president will invent some excuse for breaking it. Second, we’re easily rolled: The president may talk tough on trade, but in classic bully fashion, he runs away if confronted.”
6
Not being officially a 'businessman' I've lived in NYC for years and done plenty of 'business' with good friends, a neighbor, guy from a few blocks over who I see once a week in the subway. NYC is like that; the world is in your face; not glimpsed thru tinted safety glass. Rent an apartment, buy a stereo at a stoop sale, trade a nickel bag for dinner. At the end, I always felt I knew a little bit more about the other person, and there was the possibility for our relationship to expand.
Trump's deals with other countries seem to have the opposite effect, regardless of the actual money aspect. He demonizes them for no apparent reason except perhaps to please his base. In the case of N Korea, there is great fanfare and bluster, to no end. He threatens to leave NATO, but doesn't. I wonder what his supporters gleans from this.
Although I despise this person, I do not mean to generalize about Trump's followers. Perhaps some don't care. Maybe they like to see America insult other governments. I'm sure that some enjoy the initial headlines but never read the details a few weeks later. Maybe they're not interested in the actual numbers.
When he finally is shown out, or quits, or loses the election, will they be aggrieved? Will they shrug and blame the democrats? Will they never vote again?
Will they notice that the country is doing better?
2
Hot off the press - he has now started a trade war with India too! Of course, like Canada, India is a democracy and the PM Modi cannot go buy condos in Trump Tower. So, we are probably headed the wrong way on this one too. Interestingly, India has a general election coming up in a couple of months - Modi is already in trouble - this will pin him to the wall.
2
@anatlanta india is not a democracy. any country with a caste system like india's is not a democracy.
It appears to me that the Trump administration is listening to people, such as Ben Bernanke, when it comes to trade talks with China. Hot pockets for everyone... .
Confront and oppress the weak (that is immigrants, the dark-skinned, those with non-Christian religions, etc.) while being solicitous of the well-connected and powerful. That has been the basis of Southern politics for many, many years whether with republicans or in the old days with the southern democrats. Of course, in former days this was often done with code words and signals, but knowledgeable people knew what was going on.
The Con Don did not create something new he just took it nation wide and made it more explicit. There is a large segment of the electorate that reacts very favorable to racial/cultural/religious antagonism. Many people loved The Con Don's shameful disparagement of President Obama and his birther talk just as many loved it when he said that Mexicans are rapists and murderers.
So when The Con Don runs into someone or some country that is powerful expect some bluster but expect also for him to "cave" and compromise. There are actual problems with our trade with China but The Con Don knows that when he is up against the powerful, the thing to do is to get some good PR and leave it at that.
America the Cowardly Bully. That is not something that foreign leaders just discovered. The leaders of most countries have known that for sometime.
3
I love our country dearly. We are the land of Washington, Lincoln and Jefferson, but I cannot fly the flag while it is being so shamefully exploited by our President. This picture explains my sentiments better than words. Trump is a man that should not be allowed to touch our flag.
3
So, all of the previous trade deals were good for America? If its good for America, that just makes us selfish Americans. So, following that logic, then doing lousy trade deals should lead to a beloved status....
Makes sense, right?
"The whole world now knows two things about us. First, we’re not reliable ..."
The world has known this for years. If they didn't realize it after Hillary's Reset Button fiasco and those red lines in the sand by Obama, they never will.
And many in the world came to this realization after Vietnam.
1
For the US, it is to be hoped that after Trump is finally gone, the world will regard the politics of his presidency as a result of temporary mental incapacity, wish quick recovery and let it return to the community of reliable countries.
1
Paul,
I am pretty sure that, for a long, long time, much of the world has not trusted America.
The holdover perception of the "Marshall Plan" and its soft touch and the US Army liberating Europe took a long time to wear off. But, wear off it has.
With US wars in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Sryia, Yemen and a few brutal US installed dictators supported by the US (so many I cannot remember them all now) ... I think the world was well ahead of your own perceptions Paul.
The world has been on to the US for quite a while now.
However, as with any behemoth without a guiding light or a brain, it is being replaced. Slowly but surely. And, by its own doings. Giving away all of its manufacturing so that in an actual war, where the US is threatened, we will have to import tanks, Hummers, etc. How will that work out?
It is the way of world history.....in action..
1
Dr. Krugman's sentence "Meanwhile, the sudden retreat in the confrontation with China shows that we talk loud but carry a small stick." goes well with JK Rowling's observation of trump "You tiny, tiny, tiny little man."
3
Once again you turn a phrase to describe an economic circumstance that ends up encapsulating Donald Trump. Trump trumpeting a triumph (nice alliteration) that is really much ado about nothing- North Korea, Syria, the Wall, the Midterms, government shutdown, etc. The list will certainly continue to grow.
1
Trump’s trade war is subjecting more than one-fifth of total U.S. trade to higher tariffs. Trump's base thinks this is a smart idea and that Trump is actually trying to save their jobs.
Trump's empty bombast is wrong.
Trump and his economic team are in the tariff business solely for the false sound bite that tariffs will bring jobs back to the U.S. This false sound bite goes to the republican base, and a false sound bite is all the U.S. gets out of setting retaliatory economic tariffs on industries.
Every college 101 macroeconomic class teaches the basic principle that tariffs do not work, tariffs almost always backfire, and tariffs usually cause more economic and social harm than good to countries setting the tariffs. Data and experts resoundingly agree that focusing on tariffs as a solution towards saving jobs here in U.S. is wasted time and counterproductive in the extreme.
Bottom line: Prices for most products sold in the U.S. that are covered under the tariff policies of Trump are going up or will go up....Way Up. And the big whoosh sound we're hearing is the sound that manufacturing jobs are making as they exit the U.S. in response to Trump's tariffs.
Wake Up Republicans!!!
Our allies will no longer trade with the US in the future when we are down. Plus a ballooning US debt even when times are good. Here come the interest payments to eat up what the government used to spend to help people with eating, housing, and healthcare. And Trump cannot even force China to stop stealing our trade secrets. The middle class will be hurting when all this is done. While you suffer horrible storms floods and fires from too many people burning too much fuel. Maybe it is God's will, but maybe its just that while there were 200 million people at the time of Jesus, there are now 7100 million people. Time to stop being fruitful and multiplying??
This is an informative but sad article. Never has one person created as much unnecessary turmoil in the world as Donald Trump.
Equally as bad are his appointments. How he finds these people may be similar to leaving a chunk of cheese on the floor to attract whatever rats are left. At best these are cranks with their own issues to press, and they are certainly not the "best and the brightest." I mean, who would want to work for this guy? He's an embarrassment, and I am not sure that his motives regarding the imposition of tariffs were anything other than the intention to pay back his crony friends.
His rant the other day (in which the picture attached to this article was taken) was incoherent and filled with unbounded grandiosity, at a time where his administration is failing, day after day on a wide array of issues. His followers, though, lap it up like it was milk and they were puppy dogs. There is a huge disconnect here with reality. Just sticking with the basics, what are his followers cheering about? He uses foul language? He has an enemies list an arm long? That Michael Cohen's testimony actually caused the failure regarding the N. Korean negotiations?
What is so sad, and this article makes the case, is that Trump has alienated all of our working relationships around the world, but I would add that the one is Russia. It will not be easy to rebuild them.
1
The trade war started many years ago and just got worse every year until Trump. Finally a president with the spine to checkmate China. If Obama had done it you would hear nothing but praise from the NY Times and its leftist followers. They hate that Trump is winning on so many fronts. They can't stand to hear that NATO countries are paying more now or that manufacturing jobs have come back or that GDP is up or that Trump is promoting peace around the world by bringing home troops and making an effort to win over NK. They just Hate.
1
When Clinton and Bush II advanced NATO up to the border of Russia, they broke the promises Reagan and Bush I made to Gorbachev. We lost our international reputation before Obama became president.
This may be who we really are- at least 40%. Pres. Trump may just be the symptom....
I mean aren't we just back where we were in '68-'73?
Don Trump is like the very rare fireman who starts a fire to be the first there to put it out so everyone thinks of him as a hero.
The rest of the world is also learning that Americans who ought to know better are remaining steadfastly incapable of taking effective action against a rogue president.
Rather than assert their democratic rights, and insisting that their Congress exercise its Constitutional powers to rein in or remove the most criminal and unfit president ever, they moan, wring their hands, and debate the finer trivia of what will with high probability be an excruciatingly drawn-out and ridiculously overloaded primary season most notable for an embarrassing display of wasted time and hot air.
Americans can't seem to even begin to learn from the huge tower of bonehead mistakes they made in 2016, nor can political pundits seem to finally take real notice of the many elephants in the room of a broken political system being repeatedly shredded by two dysfunctional and thoroughly hypocritical political parties.
“Under the reported deal, America would remove most of the tariffs it imposed last year. China, for its part, would end its retaliatory tariffs . . . .”
The whole truth, for anyone who is interested, is that China has had high protective tariffs on U.S. imports for decades and Trump merely matched them. Its retaliatory tariffs were merely dumped on top of those already high barriers to U.S. imports.
Now back to your regularly scheduled partisan half truths.
1
If Trump caves on intellectual property that would be bad, no matter how many soybeans the Chinese buy. Let's hope Lighthizer understands this.
1
As a Canadian, my perceptions and sentiments towards America have deteriorated significantly and, unfortunately, indelibly under the American disgrace of a president Donald Trump.
1
@Batoche you can thank mitch mcconnell for this president. lapdog that he is.
Trump should blame American companies for transferring technology to Chinese firms in their infinite greed for cheap labor. Cheap labor is a fundamental theme in American history and it gave us slavery and union busting. You can't blame Chinese companies for playing hardball and "winning"- in a way that Trump fails to do.
1
Paul, how many years have you lived and worked in China? You remind me of LBJ waging war with people he knows nothing about. Sadly, you have cause and effect confused. You think the trade war is new and started by USA? Everyone who has lived and worked in China already knows nonChinese people and nonChinese things are blocked, and always have been. And nonChinese are forced to partner with a Chinese government subsidiary and hand over everything in the way of control, technology, know-how, intellectual property, business data. After a few years the foreigner is kicked out or bled for more technology and trade secrets. USA has the word ‘tariff’ to describe a non-normal state of affairs. For Chinese, excluding foreigners IS the normal state of affairs. It has always been this way. Who funds the greatest expansion in history of a totalitarian militaristic regime? You do Paul, as a consumer. Who funds Chinese human right abuses? You do, Paul Consumer. What’s the effect of Putting that totalitarian regime on a diet? Human rights abuses are starved a little. Paul. Go live and work in China a few years before you open your mouth again about China, and I don’t mean live at the Beijing Hotel in a bubble. Westerners who do that are almost as naive as you.
4
Putin & Co. sure knew their players...and the U.S. Constitution, U.S. history, U.S. hatreds, and American TV commercials. The result: they went shopping for traitors, from Trump and his family to the GOP and the NRA.
As Mae West said, eyeing a piece of beefcake, "You...can be had!"
In terms of current TV commercials, think the character Mayhem on an insurance ad. That's what we were persuaded to elect in states with critical Electoral College votes.
I know I’m not the only one who sees straight through Trump’s patterns: First, ‘create ‘ a crisis (the “worst” trade deal, “millions” of criminals at our border, insult and goad a nuclear armed dictator, etc.); second, declare that only he can “fix” it (unilaterally impose destabilizing tariffs, ram through a constitutionally illegal ‘wall’, set up a summit, and without any preparation, walk away, with nothing, leaving us looking foolish, a laughing stock); third, come home, and have a rally for his base, extolling our greatness, while delivering nothing, and leaving behind a mess (broken treaties, broken by him, against sound advice, a dirtier atmosphere in the name of deregulation, tax cuts for himself and his friends, payoffs to farmers for tariff-related losses created by Him, loss of civility and decency, on his wink, at a rally.
P.T. Barnum would be proud. Smoke, moirrors, lies, and deception have marked this administration.
I said two years ago, we are witnessing the would-be-emperor, charading about, naked for all to see. It’s even uglier now.
Isn't part of the solution to call a plenary session of the nation's brightest minds to revisit our founding documents and body of laws? What is the absolute right of pardon but a holdover of kings? What would such a session look like? Who would be invited? What would the agenda look like? Aren't these questions worth your time? I think everyone knows what America's international conduct has been, don't you?
But. In spite of the truth, the facts about Trump's trade tantrums, the harm to his followers; despite threatening their livelihood, his followers believe they are winning...even as farmers lost markets and income caused by retaliatory Chinese tariffs they swore their allegiance to Trump.
2
The problem is a lack of democracy. A people who receive virtual no relevant education in democracy or support for their belief in democracy. There are huge changes that need to be made to return to a balance of power, but there are even larger changes needed to make the people ready to function within a operationally sound democracy. Without this we will continue to select leaders like Trump and suffer from a lack of consistency and effective government.
2
The transfer of “intellectual property “ to China is an inevitable result of transferring manufacturing to China. How long does it take for a man assembling shoes to learn how to make them? How long does it take for Chinese engineers maintaining and upgrading multi billion dollar plants to understand the processes? Who knows the problems of advancing manufacture better than those managing the line? Where are the satellite industries going to be located? Where are Chinese soeaking teachers of tech going to originate?
Knowledge spreads like gossip: so does tech.
1
Mafia Don’s strategy: Manufacture a crisis, solve it by returning to the status quo, claim credit for a win. Brilliant!
8
Unfortunately for Trump, and us as a nation, the style he campaigned with helped him win, but made it hard to govern. It is very hard to lead when so much of the country is determined for you to fail, even if it is bad for the country, especially when there are enough on his own side who dislike him enough to thwart him too. But, the media helped him win last time with overkill and they may do it again.
Along the way Trump confirmed that he is not a man of his word when he exposed his misunderstanding of how governments use the term "memorandum of understanding".
In the private sector it is like a letter of intent or term sheet; in the government sector it is a contract. When he insisted that an MOU was not worth the paper it was printed on, he displayed not only this misunderstanding, but also his way of operating: an MOU, a letter of intent, shaking hands on a deal, etc., are all ways of jollying the other party along to the next stage where you chisel out on everything you've agreed to along the way, while holding the other party to what they agreed to along the way. Classic NY real estate chiseling.
In Trumpworld, as K points out, nothing he does can be relied on.
8
Has anyone bought a stick of lumber recently? When tariffs were raised on Canadian lumber the cost of buying 2x building material want up dramatically at the local Lowes, Home Depot, etc. Trade wars and tariffs hurt our farmers and builders and we all pay dearly for it.
8
Thoughts are free. That is one of the cornerstones of human civilization. If we weren't allowed to copy ideas from other we still would be without the wheel. "Intellectual property" is a very recent exception to this rule - aimed at promoting innovation and the spread of knowledge.
So when accusing China of "expropriating" intellectual propert one has to wonder whether in that context the motives for "intellectual property" still exist. Intellectual property is supposed to help the spread of knowledge - not to give American companies monopolies in other countries.
China has noticed America's attempts to deny Chinese companies access to advanced technology. Such an abuse of the concept of intellectual property certainly justifies China's efforts to control technologies itself. This is were the US has shown itself most untrustworthy.
The US has been living above its means for many decades now. It has been using increasingly rude tricks to make that possible, like pressure on other countries to buy American and accept unjust deals. patents that aren't recognized in any country outside the US and serving as a safe harbor where corrupt officials from other states can retire and spend their robbed billions. Trump has grown up in this culture of bullying and is trying to take it one step further. Even America's power has its limits.
1
China cheats by stealing, or more accurately co-opting corporate tech. But Technology is still advancing as we speak. With AI the stuff that China steals is limited. The producers who give up this tech to China have to know what is going on.
There is a bigger issue, actually, in the co-opting of talent. The US has stripped the world of talent for decades. Mainly from European allies and the Asian subcontinent, but more recently from eastern Europe and Russia, and now from China, sending its daughters and sons to our universities for education. Many will stay, many will go home, but on net, we get the talent, worth more than a few blueprints, because Chine with 4X the population has 4X the geniuses. The reason people like to stay is the cultural norms that we have. The culture of civic order, safety, and at least a sense of fairplay, honorability (such as setting up WTO in the first place) and trust in science and education. These are what are being challenged by Trump, Mulvaney et al, and De Vos. We lose that, we lose the future.
2
Let's hope that the world will give our next president a chance to make up for this one.
That is why the 2020 election is so important - not just to rid ourselves of Trump and the GOP control of Congress but to elect someone who will be able to re-establish trust, respect and know we are reliable partners.
Think carefully before you decide which Democrat we need in the White House - it's not just about income inequality, medicare for all, minimum wage, free college, criminal justice reform, or even climate change.
Thanks to Trump, we are alone in the world - perhaps even despised. So picture that person at the G-7 or G-20 with Merkel, Putin, Xi or at the UN speaking for America before voting in 2020.
2
If French President Macron gets half of what he wants for the European Union, those 27 nations will really hit Trump in the sweet spot of agriculture. The Union agricultural subsidies are huge, defensible as health measures, and whatever the level of US exports, a big play for Trump to his industrial agriculture chemical companies. Maybe he’ll try to make one of those deals trading auto tariff reductions for opening US markets in agriculture.
1
Good to include here Trump’s failure to staff the WTO. It seems a small pique in the flux of news, but it’s another take care constitutional problem, and leaves Congress a path to take some trade power.
2
One thing is for sure. Krugman has been strongly opposed to Trump and his policies ever since he was elected. Trump could negotiate the most favorable trade deal in the history of the world, and Krugman would not concede it and give the president credit. So, when all is said and done, I'll have to find an unbiased analyst to determine the ultimate effect of Trump's policies and actions. The fact that Trump has called attention to China's unfair and predatory trade practices is a good thing for our country, in my opinion. Trump, and his successors, need to whittle away at the trade abuses carried out by China over time. An agreement with China at this time may be only the first step. So, in that context, it's a plus, not a minus.
3
But isn't it a victory when Trump leaves us just a little bit worse than we were before? Mr. Krugman suggests there are long-term consequences from what might seem like "passing storms" because of how the world will perceive "us." I suggest:(1) we have never been as exceptional as we think we are (we may be global leaders but the rest of the world has always laughed a little at us); and (2) those who need to know are smart enough to know Trump is not "us." I think it's a given that Trump's presidency has damaged us, but I don't believe even he can undermine an entire international system in four years. We just need to make sure that this ends in 2020 and that Trump goes down in history as an aberration.
6
I’m not as confident that “those who need to know, know Trump is not us”
We’re really in a black and white situation in the US and maybe all over the world. 63 million Americans voted for a guy who I absolutely feel is a buffoon, intellectually and morally challenged. I am saddened that he represents our country but this is not something happening only in America. I believe there’s a battle going on between desperate hurting people who are pied piper’s looking for any loud mouth to follow (the louder the better) and people who believe that human beings are capable of evolving intellectually and emotionally. That’s a huge difference in how we choose to spend our short existence on earth .
@Piece man I don't think you and I totally disagree. I think we have a small window to change things, and you are absolutely right that there are disturbing trends elsewhere.
The situation must be dire if the T.S. Eliot allusions are flying. When we get back to quoting Wordsworth or Ogden Nash I'll know things are getting better.
1
“The world is too much with us, late and soon
Getting and spending, we lay waste our powers. . . .”
All autocratic leaders need a boogeymen for the public to fear to maintain their grip on power as fear is a stronger emotion than pleasure. So without China who will it be Iran, Mexico, Canada, Europe?
4
Clarification: this is the Republican trade war policy. This is the Republican make America great again plan. This is the Mitch McConnell trade war plan. Trump did not take over the Republican Party, the Party took over Trump. And all that that implies.
5
Our trade deficit with China is monumental. Obama sought to pressure the Chinese to inflate their currency. Not much came of that. A trade war pursues the same goal with different tools. Like Obama, Trump eventually backed off. But GDP growth, wage growth. employment and the stock market all speak of a healthy economy right now.
I’m not sure that adjusting trade policy is anything more than a reasonable adjustment based on circumstances and why such an adjustment fundamentally undermines our credibility. Economic policies change regularly the world over. That is not against the rules.
Each of the factors you cite began during the Obama administration and are largely due to its policies.
We who actually work in the Federal law enforcement agency that administers the free trade agreements as well as having complete oversight regarding all trade issues are disgusted. We know that 45's campaign promises were ill-conceived at best and that he was hocusing a yuuuge segment of the ill-informed electorate with his trade war bombast. The world economy now functions in such an interdependent manner that even if Trump had paid attention--or even attended any classes--at Wharton, much of what he would have been taught is now quite obsolete. These tergiversations cost the US taxpayers plenty to administer as the innumerable international trade specialists whose salaries exceed $100K could also tell you...
8
What were we thinking ? We allow a man with no governing experience and a history of bankruptcy to negotiate America's international trade arrangements. What could go wrong ?
15
Curious whether Trump's supporters understand that NAFTA 0.8 has not gone into force and is unlikely to be approved by Congress in its current form.
He has moved on to China, but he didn't finish the job with North America. We are still under NAFTA 1.0.
All this winning....
Trump has no concept of how to form alliances to get things done. It is all about him as the Lone Ranger. That's why he can't build anything, only tear us all down.
12
Trump is extending the trade war to India. Let’s see what happens.
In all the cases of trade war, it’s the local consumer, who is affected badly and whose expenses on day to day basis increases unless the products concerned are manufactured locally and made available at cheaper rates. The pain to the consumer is more if the salaries are stagnated.
In the event affected country retaliates by charging higher duties to the American products, naturally the export amount gets reduced. Not only that exports even might get decreased drastically. As such trade wars never makes any sense. However certainly there is a need for trade balance but then it depends upon so many factors.
Krugman hits the right points about how Trump starts and ends trade wars on a whim, lightly discards formal agreements, and crumples like all bullies in the face of pushback.
On the other hand, the American trade negotiation system has, unfortunately, given a the upper hand to autocratic partners for decades. With industry groups influencing U.S. priorities and trade demands, dictatorial states can squelch public opposition and agree in the interest of the larger deal.
By contrast, democracies are messy. A vocal public or politicians slow down negotiations with the U.S. This can frustrate U.S. trade representatives who are looking for clarity and success.
It is also one reason that the Trans-Pacific Partnership was such an important landmark - a charter among (mostly) democratic nations that took years to hammer out and then explain to citizens in each member state. It would have strengthened alliances, further opened markets and formalized practices - mostly best practices - in ways that autocrats could only aspire to. It was the opposite of Trump's bilateral approach which favors the worst kinds of partners.
It is no accident that Trump abandoned TPP to the detriment of allies and the glee of autocratic countries, like China, that were not part of the founding group. This, like other Trump actions, will take years and the purposeful will of future Administrations to fix.
9
Mr Krugman
I fully adhere to your analysis of the absurdity of the Trump regime's foreign trade policies.
Unfortunately his stable popularity amongst his diehard supporters 'trumps' the sad reality of this president's actions.
The current electoral process in place will still provide him with a real chance of winning a second consecutive term because the masses are too shallow and parochial-minded to consider the long term implications of transforming trade partners into adversaries. I would not give the common individual (think of the yellow vest folks in France) much credit to do 'the right thing'. We have entered a period of high emotionalism in politics to the detriment of the relative peace and prosperity we currently enjoy in the developed part of the world.
11
Hugging the flag at CPAC has to be the most iconic photo of Trump's presidency.
It's like the New Yorker cartoon caption contest:
[Trump says to flag]
"Wanna come up to my room and watch a little Shark Week?"
"Promise you'll visit me in prison."
"Ok, I'll never do it again. Just don't tell Human Resources"
"Can I keep it?"
"Why can't NFL players do this instead?"
"We fell a little in love but I walked away and came back"
"Putin promised to take good care of you."
"My flag loves me. But not as much as I do."
Trump's trade war "win" is a joke but his passionate on stage full-body embrace of the Stars and Stripes is one of the greatest visual punch lines ever.
18
It is certainly galling that the Chinese steal US intellectual property, that means software (easy as pie to steal), mechanical and electronic designs, (maybe a little harder to steal) but the real problem for the US economy and US workers is that China's big corporations are backed by their government which sees no value to protecting intellectual property or worker safety or environmental protection. The Chinese government can provide any amount of capital needed to go after a market, It can suppress any push back to its economic plans, it can steal property, it can jail opponents, it censors the internet, it denies free access to Facebook, Google and any other internet engine where free speech is possible. Perhaps, however, its biggest past advantage has been the huge pool of unskilled workers ready to come from the impoverished countryside to work in China's factories for very low wages, no benefits and no protections, physical or economic. That advantage will eventually disappear but perhaps not very soon. In the end, will China's totalitarian government running its economy succeed in producing the kinds of economic engines that have been created in the US by our Universities, by Boeing, by Silicon Valley and by our farms and medical scientist and entrepreneurs, and by our financial institutions? Can it be done without the rule of law? I am guessing the answer is no. Don't worry Paul, the US is on top and it will stay on top.
2
Perhaps... I hope you’re correct. I have doubts though. The final story of this chapter in history will most likely end in a very messy war, egged on by a madman in the WH and plenty of generals ready to do his bidding. Where a global war will take us is not pretty to contemplate.
1
@lester ostroy
Worth noting here that American corporations and American hyper-capitalism have been very complicit in the rise of China at the expense of the United States. Blame China's government and system, but what about ours?
6
@Usmcsharpshot
Grimly right. Look at the advantages Khomeini reaped when Saddam started a mindless war in 1980. The Iraqi leader unwittingly strengthened the Islamic Revolution's grip on the Iranian nation : wars can be a formidable way to cement an otherwise divided country.
The very worst of the trade relationship between the U.S. and China is the demand that American companies turnover technology and other business methods to Chinese companies if they want to sell goods there. This should never have been allowed and it should be stopped immediately. China is going to eat not just our lunch but runoff with breakfast and dinner, too.
American corporations are focused on narrow, immediate goals and they require the assurance not just of profits but high returns. If they don't get them, Wall Street will punish publicly traded companies by pushing their stock down...and down some more. In contrast, China looks at the long term much more clearly. The goal: get any business you can and keep it pumping. Don't worry about huge profits.
China will make almost anything for almost anyone the world over and their ultimate profit comes from replacing companies that once made goods in the U.S., Europe and South America. Once they do that, look out. They can dictate future terms.
It is outrageous that China is being allowed to take, virtually stealing, American technology and manufacturing processes in exchange for sales inside its borders. Someone should be screaming from the rooftops about this but all Trump appears to care about is the appearance of a good deal, not the actual details. Sad. Very Sad. There's no winning at all in this.
19
I rarely disagree with Mr. Krugman but I do here. Certainly, trade wars with allies are foolish. But China is not an ally. China is the country that continues to enable North Korea’s development of the world’s most dangerous weapons. It probably enabled Pakistan’s weapons development. China routinely threatens Taiwan and Japan. It has invaded and occupied the maritime territory of five of its neighbors and harassed our navy and air force in international waters and airspace. It has routinely stolen massive amounts of our intellectual property. It blocks many of our most important companies from doing business there. It has taken Canadian hostages in retaliation for Canada honoring a legitimate US extradition request. It operates prison camps for more than a million of its own citizens.
And this is only a partial list. This is not a normal country. It is a country that supports our enemies and bullies our friends. Until and unless China behaves more like a responsible global citizen and respects international norms, I don’t think we should do anything that will make it wealthier and its military stronger. Hope that economic development will lead to political liberalization belongs in the past. China has made its intentions clear. We should take it at its word.
6
@Bob
By definition China MUST be an ally, because we are economically deeply entwined with them. It may be an alliance that is unraveling, but it certainly was a strong alliance at its prime. You can't deny that.
1
I cannot stand Trump, however, I think he might be having difficulty being effective because he has attention and learning disorders. Is it possible that he has AADD as well as dyslexia? That would explain a lot.
3
@Susan
Future generations will shake their heads with wonder contemplating Trump's speeches and sound bites of today. The man's blatant mental health problems are all on display for the viewer to contemplate with morbid fascination. And how is it possible that the US medical corps cannot declare that the emperor is naked today ?
Sometimes I have the impression the US suffers from the same problem as Algeria today : two nations under the sway of pathological presidents whose selfishness hold their countries' destiny in the balance.
I'm not convinced the trade war was ever about trade. No trade deal explains an end to it, because it was never about that.
It was about American confronting China. How can you contain and confront your biggest economic partner? You can't. It is one or the other.
The hawks drove a desire to confront.
If now we "settle trade" it means that the business community defeated the hawks, and made it about economics with China instead of geo-political confrontation of China.
That is a behind the scenes battle, and I'll believe it is over when I see it.
5
This concerns me.
"The World Trade Organization just gave America a big win in a dispute over Chinese agricultural subsidies — but its verdict is probably moot, because the Trump administration has spent the past two years denigrating the organization, and has crippled the appellate body that is supposed to enforce W.T.O. rulings, blocking the appointments that would have given this trade court the quorum it needs to act."
One of the big mistakes that will have a lasting impact.
The U.S. Trade Representative must be very embarrassed when he contacts his counterparts.
To reverse the decline of the United States will require a great new team in 2020.
The current team is incapable of leading the U.S. to a new energy future, The new energy future will require a global mobilization similar to the organizations created at Bretton Woods.
8
It takes a very long time, maybe decades, maybe generations, to build a reputation, to become the standard of 'trustworthy', to be considered a steadfast and reliable ally. It takes only one fool of a president to throw all that aside, to toss it away for his own partisan political grandstanding. Trump has done this to the United States. An observer learning now of Trump's actions over the last two years might conclude that Trump was actively working against the best interests of the United States; that Trump was actively trying to degrade and diminish America's relationships with close allies; that Trump was actively trying to reduce America's international prestige; that Trump was working to negate America's 'soft power' of moral persuasion, of democratic integrity. Why would Trump behave, almost, as if he were working against America's interests? That, I think, is a question that bears a careful and deep examination. Ignore what Trump says, watch closely what he does, and think deeply and clearly about why, and for what reason, Trump does the things he does. That consideration and deep thought leads inexorably to only one conclusion - Trump is compromised (perhaps 'kompromat' is a better word) by something... and We the People have a right, an obligation, and a duty to know the root and cause, of Trump's compromised actions, and to stop them.
21
I think you are giving Mr. Trump too much credit. I think he is really just that stupid. He would be a much wealthier guy if he had just invested in Berkshire Hathaway and sat on a beach someplace. Instead his legacy is going to be as a scourge.
Editor’s note: This comment has been anonymized in accordance with applicable law(s).
He's a Trojan Horse who got enough people who don't know what that is to cast the their precious votes for him. They may never appreciate that Putin was inside waiting to get his revenge.
"The president may talk tough on trade, but in classic bully fashion, he runs away if confronted."
Does Krugman mean "walk out," not "run away"? He walked out when Kim JongEun refused to deal. Did Krugman miss that? Krugman is batting 0-1 after the first inning.
Or is he a nuclear bully but a trade pussycat? How does that figure?
The case of China is more difficult to interpret -- an ambiguity that is irresistible to someone who is more interested in scoring debating points than in substance.
The point is that we (that is all of us, including Krugman) simply won't know whether we have we have a fair trade deal with China for a year or more.
China will make promises, and Trump will suspend his threats. If China doesn't keep its promises, Trump will re-impose tariffs.
It is a safe bet that Krugman will spin any trade deal as a case of Trump getting rolled, no matter what deal is struck. But he won't know what he's talking about.
3
@Ian Maitland
Actually the US State department confirmed that North Korea did propose a deal. The North Koreans wanted the most recent economic sanctions lifted, not all sanctions as DJT claimed. They did agree to shut down a known, aging nuclear site. DJT went home in a huff because his summit was not swamping the news coverage of Micheal Cohen’s damning testimony to Congress. We know this because DJT is now blaming the Democrats for the failure of his summit, even though he purposefully scheduled it to overshadow those very hearings. The con man got rolled on his own con, that is all. But he still managed to insult the nation by claiming that Kim Jong-Un’s denial of knowledge about Otto Warmbier was totally believable. Looks like it’s DJT who is batting zero.
He means that Trump’s a coward, which he is.
And which you know he is, or you would not have flipped from trade to the failed pseudo-summit back to trade like that.
The obvious path for the US to garner strength to challenge China economically and strategically is to consolidate regional partners to challenge China and facilitate trade with the US. Maybe call it something like Trans Pacific Partnership.
The man takes credit for the economy, the sun rising and new trade agreements forged by calling Canada a security threat. I think Pelosi correctly named that one "TAFKAP" Trade Agreement Formerly Known As Prince.
America's word is made totally meaningless. Allies cannot rely on our commitments. Enemies know they must be nuclear to be safe- or perhaps offer Trump the possibility of a building in exchange for a whole country such as Crimea. As a negotiator he is quite a game show host.
We pull out of the Iran deal and even the non-binding agreement in Paris for the sole purpose of spitting on our allies and putting a crack in NATO.
Somehow it gives Republicans no pause that they support and protect the favored candidate of Russia as he does its work weakening Europe and making America a pariah.
3
On U.S. unreliability, consider the way the current administration has treated Canada, probably the friendliest neighbor and firmest ally any nation has ever had. Despite generations of good relations and a free-trade agreement, Trump imposed large tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel, invoking national security as a justification. This was obviously specious — in fact, Trump himself basically conceded this point, justifying the tariffs instead as retaliation for Canadian dairy policy (which was also specious).
Not to mention Trump's indecent suggestion the arrest in Canada at America's request of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, an action that led to immediate retaliation against Canada in the form of Chinese detention of at least two Canadians and charges against them of espionage - an offence that can carry the death penalty -was a thing that could be made to go away with a favourable trade deal. Trump takes hostages!
6
Following a pattern that developed under the W. Bush administration, the Trump administration has proven time and time again that the actual facts of any of their policy decisions are simply irrelevant to a massive subsection of the U.S. population. Lost jobs and lost wages are always ambiguous enough events that dozens of irrelevant causes will continue to resonate with those who are victimized by them. Blaming these things on dark-skinned immigrants will continue to sound more persuasive to many than complicated narratives involving economic and policy decisions. After all, it took about twenty minutes after Obama was inaugurated before over half the old white people in America began to blame him for the economic collapse that had happened months before under an all Republican government.
7
I understand 40% of the tariffs against Chinese steel are already waived. The amount waived of Canadian steel production - about 2%.
Also, the world's second largest Aluminum producer, Rural (Russian Aluminum), had the US aluminum tariff recently waived for its products. The CEO, Oleg Deripaska, apparently received voting survey information from Paul Manafort to pass to Vladimir Putin. The tariff against Canadian aluminum production remains in place - a matter of US "National Security" ???
13
The general Trump Republican pattern is clear. Break everything in sight, and kinda try to fix some of what they have broken. TPP was good precisely because it would have helped solve the Chinese trade problems. NAFTA was good for all Americans. President Obama's Iran deal wasn't perfect but it was pretty good. It only needed to be adjusted. We would count ourselves fortunate if a North Korea agreement were as good as the Iran deal. Trade with our European allies has been good for our economy and good for our national security.
As noted here:
"... the [likely Chinese] deal would do little to address real complaints about Chinese policy … Trade experts I know ... call it 'Nafta 0.8': fundamentally the same as Nafta, but a bit worse."
3
According to the Bloomberg article you've linked to, someone close the negotiations indicated that China offered to ramp up its purchases of US goods by $1.2 Trillion over 6 years. That doesn't sound like much ado about nothing to me.
Trump has just proven once again, that he is not a good businessman. Over the last 2 years he's proven that he knows nothing about politics, nothing about good governing or bad governing, nothing about how to run anything except into the ground, nothing about selecting marginally qualified people to fill positions, and absolutely nothing about what works in the real world.
If anyone has ever deserved the award of most disruptive and malicious president it is Donald J. Trump. Nothing he has done has made America great again. Nothing he's done has put Americans first; it's put the economic elites first instead. The Grossly Overrated Prattlers have supported this man because they love power more than they do serving their constituents, at least the ones who expect them to work for their salaries.
Trump has disparaged the FBI, NATO, the CIA, the Secret Service, the UN, our allies, and for what? He does love totalitarian dictatorial states and those who run them. Perhaps we send him over to the Russians or North Korea, or even the Philippines. They might have a use for tired and paranoid blowhards. We don't. We need representatives who will work for us and make America a place worth living in again for all Americans, not just the richest.
9
@hen3ry:" has disparaged the FBI, NATO, the CIA, the Secret Service,"
Sounds like the late 1960s.
He has not only broken trade deals. He has broken the Iran nuclear deal, other disarmament deals, etc. Our word is mud.
6
"The lesson for the world is that America can’t be trusted. Why bother making deals with a country that’s willing to slap sanctions on the best of allies, and clearly lie about the reasons, whenever it feels like it?"
Your expansive summary is incorrect. Responsibility for distrust must be limited to Trump and his followers.
Three years of Trump has taught me that he may be a White Supremacist, and at least a racist. It is clear to many he is competing with the legacy of former President Obama as well as more specifically, with Bill Clinton and Herbert Bush who were both instrumental in growing American free trade.
3
They know that Trumps executive orders have no lasting bite because without Congress he's just a paper Lyon and in a few years after he's gone there would be another President. It's all bluff and fluff from the golden boy who wears no clothes.
2
I suspect Trump believes trade wars ARE easy to win.
You can start them on invented "facts", get lots of attention, then claim to have obtained a "very good deal" at the end and get lots of attention at the "signing". Your captive news organization will publish a bunch of lies to celebrate the victory.
For those of us not drinking the kool-aid, it looks like a trade of short-term publicity for long-term damage.
For Trump, it is all a win. He knows that only a few actually understand the consequences of what he did beyond the publicity. Neither he, nor most of the press, nor his allies in Congress have any idea how trade and tariffs work, so they will turn to their trusted news source: Fox News for analysis.
For Trump, trade wars are the prefect wars. You can start them whenever you want to. You can stop them whenever you need to. Your target audience likes the excitement, and will always call it a win--perfect.
5
trump and tariffs, trump has a specific personality disorder which obsessively drives him to take control, in trump business the outcome did not matter as he would move investor money around in holding companies using fake and marked up invoices and have his lawyers push bankruptcy.
Tariffs, like executive orders, enable trump to have personal control with no one to question him. trump has never proposed legislation beyond campaign slogans and what was credited to trump was put together by congressional republicans. Campaign slogans are the “depth of any trump argument or defense “ of any trump legislative proposal.
The trump negotiating skills are lying, bullying, threatening, skills not taught in any legitimate MBA school. Outcomes mean nothing to trump, if its good he takes credit, if it fails he blames others and is faithfully supported by his followers who egg him on to be even more bizarre.
trump business was only “profitable” because he hired unethical lawyers (lawyers for whom winning at any cost, including damaging justice) to manipulate US law. There is no world law, no world court, and no place trump can use unethical lawyers to manipulate the law and get out of situations.
As long as trump is “in control” he does not care about any outcome and neither do his supporters.
3
I think this, among many other things, illustrated the reason that Trump has gone bankrupt some 5 times. He has poor judgement, is impulsive and short-sighted.
Going forward, the United States will now have to deal with the many allies that Trump has whipsawed during his presidency and try to regain our now shaky role in the world.
6
What a state of affairs in this country when making policy that promotes America First is a vice.
4
@james
It is when that america first policy hurts us. It certainly is a vice then.
Trump has never had the best interest of the rest of us, instead it is all about him. He is selfish. And willing to hurt anyone else to get what he wants.
America first was a lousy slogan designed to appease the base after all his racist talk. How we could wall off all those brown people and everyone else in the world and go it alone.
And the rest of us knew it was foolish talk. The US depends on trade across the world. And trump threatens all of it.
Chinese cultural commitment is to the family first; any chicanery is approved as long as it benefits one’s family.
American’s cultural commitment is to profit first; it blinds us to certain realities; we fail to profit and wonder why.
2
Nice distortion of Confucianism; weird ignorance of capitalism.
I believe it is more accurate to say that Chinese cultural commitment is to the party first. For example, if family was first, why are they sending Muslim families to re-education camps? Because those family values don't fit with community party culture @BlueMountainMan
If anyone alive actually thinks anything Trump touches will actually provide a net positive for anyone other than the top 1%, I have a bridge to sell you. You may've heard of it...it's in Brooklyn.
4
Have you ever seen the Brooklyn Bridge? It's not in Brooklyn, it's over the water between Brooklyn and Manhattan. @David
Odd, when I scroll on the picture his hair moves around. Trump's hair is definitely improving over time. Maybe there's no one left to offend, so he's dismantling his costume.
2
Keep on truckin', Doc! Thanks.
2
Is there any public political act more obscene than Trump full-body hugging the American flag?
i guess if you’re a “star” you can get away with such groping.
i suggest that pro-athletes who wish to protest during the ritual playing of “The Star-Spangled Banner”, abandon kneeling and commence to Trumpishly hug the flag instead.
How would Trumpuglicans react to such emulation?
2
America is nothing more than a double-crossing, warmongering, international-law breaking rouge nation with a propensity for conducting wide-ranging and untrammeled political, economic, military and financial terrorism on the rest of the world. The damage Trump has done to America's image is just another brick or two on top of a pretty big wall already.
The trade war may have done China some short term pain, but it certainly has been repaid back in full with a lot of long-term gain - China gets to set out clear red lines in political and economic conduct against previously erstwhile American allies, China gets to develop its own economic and political sphere, China knows that it has to "Monroe-doctrine" the South and East China Seas, and finally, China might not have the cow sense to bump up its number of nukes from a paltry 260 to 2,500!
All nations are learning, on a yearly basis, that the US does not respect humbleness, equality and fraternity.... it only respects strength, courage and determination. Which is what China has demonstrated in spades against America.
Well done, China!
2
@T E Low:"America is nothing more than a double-crossing, warmongering, international-law breaking rouge nation with a propensity for conducting wide-ranging and untrammeled political, economic, military and financial terrorism on the rest of the world."
All this was the result of Trump's presidency?
It’s just a thought, but oerhaps first set thine own house in order.
Meanwhile, how many family farms, the poster boys the GOP loves to trot out to bolster every policy from trade to the estate tax, will have gone under, only to be scooped up at fire sale prices by big Ag? Trump always seems to be stumbling, but his supposed failings always end up enriching the plutocrats.
796
@stan continople. Hard to have much sympathy as most of them are firmly in the tRump camp. Agriculture, particularly family farms, are part of an industry that relies heavily on government support yet they firmly support Republicans and rail against government. When the tariffs bit too hard the response was a huge government bailout yet we never heard the howls of protest as when the Obama Administration saved the auto industry.
133
@DCN-You have to look at who receives the largest share of government subsidies: big agriculture. The lion's share of the handouts go to the LARGEST PRODUCERS of corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and rice. According to the Cato Institute, the largest 15 percent of farm businesses receive 85 percent of the subsidies. Between 1995 to 2016, the Environmental Working Group (EWG) tracked $349 billion paid in farm subsidies and found that 50 people on the Forbes 400 list of wealthiest Americans received farm subsidies. I would like to see updated numbers ....
96
I’m in Oklahoma. We were third for Trump in 2016, and the farmers were at the forefront of his sweep through this state. It wasn’t just a cliche but their fervor for him seemed based on Jesus and guns. They loved him.
This seems to be changing. I know it’s my own anecdotal evidence, but his farm support is on the wane. They’re beginning to see through him. It appears that when we legalized marijuana, the farmers liked the idea of making more money. And somehow, I’ve discerned in conversations with them, they see Trump as being against legal marijuana.
I don’t think this state will give him 67% again in 2020.
61
Bungling incompetence or intentional damage?
3
Wouldn't it be nice if we all just woke up from this ridiculous nightmare of the Trump mis-administration tomorrow morning and discovered it was all just a bad dream, ala Dallas? That fair-dealing and facts were still of absolute importance, that the hand wringing and gut-wrenching that Canadians went through with the NAFTA RENEGotiations didn't happen, that our allies did not make side deals while skewering whatever honour was left in honest negotiation? (Thank you, Mexico) Better still would be if we had not seen the fawning of DJT over Kim, or Putin, or Duterte, for the absolute power they wield over their realms.
I think another rerun of the TV show "Dallas" might lessen the pain a bit.
Or we take a big hit of something to hold us until 2020. Then we wake up as this mess just fades into obscurity forever.
3
Paul, you miss the point. It's not what America gets in the deal - admittedly it's less with "NAFTA 0.8" and will be similarly less with China. It's what did trump get in return for the deal - you know, the real reason for the deal - the kickbacks and bribes that he alone (shared with Jared) gets.
Mexico and China are in their element knowing how corruption and bribery works and are well suited to dealing with trump. So is the bully in chief seeking the best deal for trump or America? Or the long-term benefit for the village people in the sky in trump tower.
I wonder how much trump charges the Chinese and Russians for the top 59th through 68th floors in trump tower. Those floors don't exist of course, but that doesn't matter to the trump.
If America is unreliable, then so is our debt. The full faith and credit of the U.S. government ... under trump? In trump NO ONE trusts. Does anyone think trump wouldn't have us default on the entire $22 trillion debt on a whim? And as the typical bully he is, he'll tell the rest of us "what ya gonna do 'bout it?" He's the king of debt and defaults. That should make any treasury bond holder terrified.
Indeed, "So much winning!" for the trump's bottom line.
3
Thank you Paul. Never send a boy to do a mans job. In essence, we have been treated to the experience of seeing the guy who washes out barrels at the winery promoting himself to becoming the chief wine maker. A clear example of the Dunning Kruger Effect.
2
I’ve had a trade imbalance with my grocery store for 30 years.
The store owner must be a zillionaire by now.
And I should be bankrupt by now.
"Why is the president who famously declared that “trade wars are good, and easy to win” effectively waving the white flag? Mainly because winning turns out not to be easy, at all."
When Dunning-Kruger incarnate Trump says those words, intellectual giants and pioneers in game theory like John von Neuman and John Nash smile indulgently in their graves. How far has a mighty nation fallen!
3
America was not always dominant, respected, and trusted. Trump's administration which may last another 2 years should end and hopefully we can start again with a new administration. Trump's ascent to power was not "Paradise Lost". Past administrations had serious imperfections too.
Rather than assiduously report the tenuous and repairable damage Trump has done it would be better to figure out methods to minimize damage and methods to help improve things for the future.
3
@Michael Cohen:"America was not always dominant, respected, and trusted. "
Sorry but the mob on the OP-ED pages is shouting a different chant and "Paradise Lost!" is a pretty good characterization of it.
The mob is changeable. One day the Cold War ends because of the inevitable collapse of the Soviet Union. The next day Trump is betraying the US led alliance that defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War.
1
because we have always been so honest and believable in our negotiations...ask the Native American tribes. Saints we ain't. treachery is our name, power and wealth our game. reputation ruined, pshaaa. I don't agree with what we've done and do, but, just saying, enough of the hand wringing about our besmirched reputation.
2
So, what's behind all this bluffing and mismanagement? It must point towards the nobless oblige of the people who do nothing more than pull the strings while the puppet dances. In case no one notices, probably President Trump hasn't the slightest notion about what might be termed basic economic strategy; rather, he gives the appearance of utilizing tactics with no particular end in view; so we fault him on two scores, knowledge-ability and sincerity. If intentional on his part, it points more to the "fool all the people all the time" aspect, which it appears that they and their puppet, him, believe that they can do. The knowledgeable professor is one among many, I imagine, who are not fooled. As to cowardly bullying, it is one thing to retreat from sanctions, protectionism, (the U.S. hasn't retreated upon the sanctions) and quite another to retreat from a belligerent economic stance in order to avoid a shooting war. The military budget is evidence of the inclination to bully. "Rending" the Bosch organization (WIPO) might be the impetus to law suits, which is President Trump's stock-in-trade, or so he projects, but cowardly, no, especially considering the string-pullers' seeming immunity from actual belligerent action. So this is like shadow boxing, of a type which produces a dance which goes literally nowhere. Perhaps, given the past predilection of the U.S. to interfere militarily, that is how things should be. Image is quite close to all, so into a corner of repute we go.
1
I'm exhausted by all this winning!
3
We learned that he was never the negotiator his bluster claimed, and in the process of learning this, the world order was disrupted and possible everyone is now worse off.
2
"The lesson for the world is that America can’t be trusted. Why bother making deals with a country that’s willing to slap sanctions on the best of allies, and clearly lie about the reasons, whenever it feels like it?"
I disagree with this expansive summary. It is Don Trump and his cabal that cannot be trusted, and don't forget those who went along with him.
Why Did Trump sabotage American trade? Because he is clearly a White Supremacist competing with the legacy of former President Obama, Bill Clinton and H. Bush. Many call him 'No Drama-bama" and oh, how I miss his intellect, and peace loving dignity.
Additionally, I still argue against the complaints that China is stealing American intellectual property. It may be true now, but for decades, American business sent our intellectual innovating skills and knowledge to China along with our businesses.
Trump scammed his followers in a vain attempt to garner love and admiration by inventing a conflict he now is trying to stop. Trump is a disaster that creates disasters.
Is it actually a "war" when all one side does is shoot itself in the foot?
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@Steve
But which side?
3
@meloop left and right side both of them
3
@Steve
Shooting yourself in the foot creates bone spurs.
31
There can be developed strategies to improve the situation with China, but we would need to properly use our leverage, tariffs just punish our own people and companies.
We control what is legal to sell in this country. Do not allow products to come to this country unless they can provide documented evidence (like ISO 9000 and RoHS) that products being sold here were made while complying with key federal laws of ours, such as minimum wage, Environmental protections, federal workers rights, including equal rights. May be a couple more, but you get the idea.
Like ISO 9000 and RoHS, the process pays for itself, and will 'naturally' apply to ALL products sold in the US, since of course all 'made in the USA' products are in compliance with Federal law, only foreign companies, imports, would need to comply. Like with ISO 9000 and RoHS, this would apply to vendors and other companies involved in the process of creating products and services.
China has four times the population of the United States and its economy is growing twice as fast. In the not too distant future, China will not only surpass the US in gross domestic production but speed right past on its way to a huge, ever increasing dominance - economically and militarily.
Our eventual impotence will only get worse when the then world's largest producer and consumer, China, allies with another totalitarian government and perhaps the world's biggest resource bank, Russia, a country almost twice our size. The natural economic synergies of the two countries makes it inevitable, the common political background ensures it.
We have been the world leader, economically and morally. We should continue using our short term dominance to foster better international institutions and common understanding and objectives, not tearing them down by adopting the role of bully.
The path that Trump is on is a path to suicide. Let's hope he does not drag America down, all the while foolishly and ironically chanting "Make America Great Again". We are great - in many ways. I just hope that in 20 years we won't be imploring that with real meaning, because Trump chants it while taking America in the opposite direction.
617
Nah. State-directed economic policy is not going to work. The deadweight of state-owned enterprises will catch up with China. Plus their population is aging. Remember how are used to think Japan would take over the world?
21
@Rocky:"The natural economic synergies of the two countries makes it inevitable, the common political background ensures it."
Sounds like either conflict and/or subservience is inevitable in your scenarios.
"We have been the world leader, economically and morally."
Reagan would be proud.
" Let's hope he does not drag America down, "
From your description of things it sounds like we don't need Trump to do the dragging down. As you stated, it sounds inevitable.
6
@Rocky agree with your take on things as I travel frequently to China. Will they have some issues why of course yes, but in a simple numbers game China wins, with a population 4 times of the US getting only half of them into the middle class does the trick.
21
Mr. Krugman, some economists have published more than a decade ago that a trade war with China was in the cards. True you have mentioned before, that skilled economists are not predictors when it comes to such matters.
It is possible that you are acquainted with the author of 'The World in 2020', a well known economist from Great Britain who published the above work in 1994, and may have revised and updated it.
In hindsight, and covering East Asia, mention is made of China: the giant wakes. Before, there is a chapter entitled 'North America: the giant in retreat', but more important perhaps is the mention of a possible trade war between these two superpowers.
America appears to be out to lunch at the moment with a leader who is playing blind-man's bluff, and a majority of us do not know what is happening or the damaging impact of a trade war.
Farewell to the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
134
@Miss Ley
Indeed, such a work may have ben printed but it was only even possible in the west-in nations where such publication is legal and encouraged by our peculiar- style of government-which the US and Britain ensured for much of the planet in the last century. Our systems of allowing all adults to have a vote-in choosing the leader-has led us down the overgrown forest path where wolves, bears and snakes make their homes, but , we are well enough acquainted with these occasional accidents, or disasters-(our Civil War), and which seem part of the nature of any such "free" government that we-unlike Russia or CHina-can hope that after a few years of disasters that the voters will-(as in 2008), have had enough, and will long for the warmth and the comforts of our old Democratic home. We'll thus leave the rocky and blind paths of the far right libertarians lunatics and their cronies.
Sometimes it takes painfully breaking a toe to awaken one one to the benefits of wearing good shoes.
12
@Miss Ley-Farewell to some other things as well. Like U.S. influence and goodwill; what's left of it.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/11/13/651834661/chinas-building-spree-in-poor-nations-does-it-really-help-the-local-economy
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/09/642587456/chinese-firms-now-hold-stakes-in-over-a-dozen-european-ports
https://www.npr.org/2018/10/08/641625157/a-new-chinese-funded-railway-in-kenya-sparks-debt-trap-fears
Chinese plans to build 50 more international zones in countries from Algeria to Vietnam...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/29/magazine/china-globalization-kazakhstan.html
9
@meloop,
Thank you for your reply on the trade war taking place between the US and China, while understanding that it may be with difficulty that the global economic weather is going to stabilize soon.
You have encouraged this reader to look for an update on the vision of this prominent economist in '2020' - at random, in the last chapter entitled 'The Prize', he addresses the impact of demographic shifts taking place in the times we live across the civilized nations of the World.
We have plenty of bears, cougars and snakes in this neck-of-the-woods, and some of us feed the deer at early dawn. Perhaps we could leave our embattled president to untangle himself from a cobweb of lies and deceit.
An international Economic Forum could take place with fine professional minds to find viable solutions to ensure a sounder financial ground.
Hoping that toes might have to be pressed, and not broken, in order to reconsider the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Having worked as a cleric for nearly two decades for an economist does not make one a financial and economic engineer, but remembering three rules and recommendations on the national agenda:
- Beware of Fake News;
- Pay attention to 'Climate Change';
- Keep moving ahead;
And with, or without lunacy, let the economic powers in authority come up with a plan that attempts to insure Power, Culture and Prosperity for The Future.
4
Yes you summarized the situation so very well when you said "First, we’re not reliable — an agreement with the U.S. is really just a suggestion, because you never know when the president will invent some excuse for breaking it." Many of us think that no deal would have been better because of this. And watch how both Canada and Mexico are saying the NAFTA 0.8 won't come into effect until the insulting and WTO-violating tariffs on steel and aluminum disappear. If there were a single liberal democracy with the economy the size of America's left, the rest of the western democracies would be rapidly building a tariff wall around America to keep out all your goods and services. One can only hope for a calamity that eliminates Putin, or Modi creating non-authoritarian regime changes, or China slowly devolves into civil unrest, so the rest of us can get on with re-building a peaceful global economy based on rules and fair trade.
169
@On Therideau: Your Canadian Auto Workers are howling loudly over GM's decisions to move some production from Canada to Mexico. So much for your global economy.
Here's something the righteous nations of the world can do today - stop selling to the US. Think of all the ill-gotten profits those countries will be relieved of.
1
@Jp That's just dumb. Of course, unionized workers don't want to see jobs disappear. What does that have to do with the US president slapping wholly unjustified tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel? Or with the US being an unreliable partner that breaks its own agreements?
It's not about being "righteous". It's about basic fairness.
14
@On Therideau Ahhh, yes, the fantasy of the peaceful global economy based on rules and fair trade. The very core of American foreign policy for the last 100 years, no doubt. The same fantasy that got you 9/11, the GFC, the increasing sickness the West now gets to enjoy, and deteriorating health systems just when they are needed most.
Just curious, how does the Vietnam War, the Iraq War, The Afghanistan War, Syria, regime change around the world on multiple continents, a war against the environment and native peoples around the world, and the slow destruction of global health for American food and pharma companies register in your somewhat biased view of the world?
Its unfortunate you still believe in that fantasy given how few people fully benefited from it. Fortunately, with China, Russia, Iran, India, Africa and South America continuing to play a greater role in the world, we can leave that self-destructive, Christian view of a peaceful global economy back in the dark ages where it belongs.
Is hoping for a calamity against Mr Putin or Mr Modi, and unrest in China, really appropriate for this publication? Maybe it is the West that deserves the calamity after the destruction it has forced on the Earth and the majority of its citizens for the last 250 years. Global climate change, the 6th mass extinction now underway, the destruction of the oceans? That is what your so-called peaceful, global economy has reaped.
5
Aren't all such columns as this, good as they are, just covering the same ground over and over, the same worthy point being made but with different examples? Who doesn't know that 45 is a terrible man and a terrible president?
Okay, some of his followers may not, so I assume that such columns as this are desperately trying, one more time, to reach.
I think that a fool's errand, though: We have all found our happy spots in the world of American politics, haven't we? Few, if any of us, are moving or will move to a different terrain with a different perspective.
Thus it is that I argue that we need to expend the lion's share of our energy doing something to elect more Democrats and find and support a strong challenger to 45. No more backgrounding is necessary; let us move on to the action stage of our worrisome political drama.
How and in what way are we going to get our guy or gal into the Oval Office?
I'm a Bernie Bro, but I'll go with whoever you guys choose, of course. A winning ticket to me is Biden/Harris, because the gurus insist that going too far left is suicidal.
It's early, of course. 45 may even drop out, but that seems unlikely.
So we need to strain every nerve and stretch every muscle to ensure that Democratic candidates have the political tools they need to return our country to sanity.
An excellent political tool is money, of course. So please donate early and often to all the Democratic candidates you can.
Thanking you in advance.
5
Who in their right mind would want a "trade war"? Or any "war" for that matter? Only against drugs, terrorism and cancer could you sell this! Trade is clearly not as sinister as these; the term "trade war" is a cheap ploy to prevent a needed discussion about increasing our current level of protectionism, which EVERY country has some degree of. We're pretty much at one end of the spectrum - and maybe Bhutan is at the other... and we could learn a fair amount from Bhutan. (But that's a long one.)
In my opinion, SOME of Trump's intentions are very good and respond to popular will. In this case here, increasing "protectionism" in order to protect American workers is what he was elected to do. Unfortunately, it's just possible that Trump might over-estimate his powers to negotiate, which may lead him to go after importing countries - individually, and not collectively. Sure, China is not just one of the pack. But Trump seems more than willingly to apply his deal-making powers down the line. What the working class wants and needs is an across-the-board way of protecting their livelihoods, like Europe's VAT tax, for example. Of course, Dr. Krugman and other neoliberals will probably frame this as a "war on the world". Then I guess I will support a war on the entire world... along with Bhutan.
10
@carl bumba
All those "wars" (drugs, terrorism, cancer) are phony wars which largely excuse ineffective large expenses. The "war on cancer" at least tends to support research; the others largely support generals and prisons.
38
@carl bumba
The reason why European workers are better off doesn't have to do with tariffs (they are more or less equal) but with much better healthcare, education and labor laws.
73
@Ana Luisa
Thanks. I disagree. More than half of my low salary over there went to the Krankenkasse, my pension and other social programs... and well worth it. But I am certain that if there weren't tariffs and immigration restrictions (against Hungarian, Slovakian, Bulgarian, and Romanian workers), my salary and input into these agencies would be MUCH less. Companies over there still provide good pension plans (as well as worker and environmental protections). If these companies and industries were not protected you could say 'wiedersehen' to it all.
11
"The lesson for the world is that America can’t be trusted. Why bother making deals with a country that’s willing to slap sanctions on the best of allies, and clearly lie about the reasons, whenever it feels like it?"
The exquisite beauty of the Mad Man Trump Show is that it is now set up so that The Donald wins whatever the outcome. If there is some sort of agreement with another country, Trump loudly touts it as a major victory, which claim his base and some substantial percentage of the inattentive public accept at face value. Nobody but Krugman and a few other policy wonks will actually bother to read the fine print.
But if Trump walks away with no deal at all, he still wins. Everyone who is terrified of Trump doing something stupid and/or belligerent heaves a great sigh of relief and heaps praise on him for his statesmanlike display of restraint. That's what just happened when he returned from Hanoi.
As for the rest of the world, perhaps the silver lining is this: Trump's manifest unreliability will force the EU and others to take more responsibility for their own fates. Instead of relying on the wisdom (and money and troops) of the US to get them through, they will increasingly take matters into their own hands. From the standpoint of traditional American imperial hegemony, that is perhaps a bad thing. But from a global standpoint it could prove to be a giant step forward.
92
USA cannot be trusted is not a worthy partner and has put the security of 2 Canadians at risk as chips in their trade war with China...in the meantime Canada loses in trade and tourism...quite disgusting really!
9
@woofer
The US has been spending on its military and establishing troops in various places to protect its own interests first and if it helps others, that's probably an unintended consequence.
Trump has suggested that other countries increase their military or defense spending to 4% of GDP to match the US's spending. No other country has ever demanded the US spend that much. Instead, why doesn't the US direct that extra 2% to actually making things better for its citizens? From what I've read, even spending only 2% of your GDP on "defense" would still be outspending most of the next highest-spending countries.
As for "wisdom" of the US - I'm quite sure no-one is talking about that these days.
7
The picture of Trump clinging for dear life to the flag and its supporting staff is amazing.
4
@Thomas Zaslavsky
“ Patriotism is the last refuge of a Scroundrel “.
Photographic Proof.
1
As a Canadian, and someone who watched Trump throughout the renegotiating and updating of the NAFTA agreement, I was utterly disgusted by the way Trump came after us. He wasn’t satisfied to let the process play out, no, he had to insert himself, threaten and bully us to make sure we knew who was boss. Sure, we may have a new trade deal, but personally it will take a very long time before I see your country the same light again. He is the face of your nation and the world cringes at that fact every single day.
1577
@Holly
I can guarantee you I don't consider this Trump individual any kind of "boss"... on the contrary this tormented quantity only evokes utter disgust in me, right to the core.
201
@Holly,
Plenty of us in the US are cringing as well.
309
@Holly
Don't blame us, blame the Electoral College.
135
The sad part about a trade war is that the damage is done from the moment the threat is made. If you rely on parts or materials from China, costs immediately go up and once suppliers get their price, the best you can hope for is that they won't continue raising prices.
If you sell to China, the disruption to your sales chain is dramatic and not immediately capable of being turned on a dime.
Uncertainty and disruption are all byproducts of trade wars.
As far as the theft of intellectual property, with experience in the consumer electronics business, I can say with some authority that we have always known that what your Chinese factory ships out of its front door with your brand on it, might also end up shopping out the factory's back door with some other brand on it.
The difference and certainty that most American manufacturers have always relied on regarding this equation lies in the knowledge that software and support are one-half of the product. Knowing full well that their designs might be hacked, these companies have succeeded under these conditions because they all to well know that marketing and support are in fact the backbone to technology.
While I do understand that the Chinese steal intellectual property, the fact is that customers still rue the day when it comes to use of that technology. If you don't believe me, just ask Apple.
32
Trump has not effectively dealt with a key difference between China and the US. In China, most largish companies get backing from the state (China). In the US they don’t. This fact makes it much easier for Chinese companies to compete.
I have worked with Chinese companies for years. They fundamentally do not (at all) understand Western commitments to health and safety regulations. I believe they also approach intellectual property issues the same way. Bafflement. Complete lack of understanding. The government support is key for their survival.
The Trump administration has focused on one incredibly small issue in the China-US trade arena (the trade deficit) and totally missed the forest for the trees.
120
@Cooofnj
American companies don’t get our government’s backing? Hmm, that’s a good one.
7
@Cooofnj
That's precisely where the TTP came in.
It would have created a real counter-weight, by integrating most of China's neighbors (plus the US) into a capitalist trade community that would not only have increased free trade but also labor union protections in countries where today they almost don't exist.
That would have hurt the Chinese economy in a much more structural way then a White House one-man show about tariffs that can be as easily ended as they started. As a consequence, it would have forced China, over time, to want to get into that regional market too, and that's where the US would have had the leverage to impose more free trade and basic labor protection laws onto China's government and economy.
I've never been a TTP fan (compared to where we need to go, it was too much of an attack on US labor laws), but compared to doing nothing (= what will essentially be the result of Trump's trade war), it was clearly a much more effective way to challenge China than what the GOP is doing today.
8
@Sam Song Agreed, you don't really have to squint very hard to see how corporations in America just bleed into government.
6
If there is one agenda this president has it is to do as much damage to the country, our reputation, our democracy and our freedoms as he can before he is removed from office. He has done more damage to the country and our democracy in just a few years than Russia has been able to since the end of WWII. And as they say in legal terms, who stands to benefit the most?
8
On what Paul Krugman refers to as " Nafta 0.8" there were more benefits in the re-write than he acknowledges. One key aspect is the various requirements needed for Chinese companies to use Mexican labor going forward. It can't happen anymore basically. That is a win and representative of effective global thinking as well as protecting our national interests.
As a reminder, President Trump hasn't gotten us into any real shooting wars,unlike a variety of predecessors.
I fail to see how whether or not the Chinese use Mexican labor has anything to do with US interests.
Donald Trump likes to tell Americans that "the tariffs" are bringing in a lot of money from foreign countries.
But that's actually not true at all. Tariffs are paid locally. So American tariffs on foreign goods are actually a tax paid by Americans. So that tax cut that the Trump administration and the Republican Party put in earlier on is being offset by the tariffs they've placed on Canadian goods and services.
We're paying our own taxes here, of course. But for us it's a matter of survival. For you, you run to eat. We're running to live.
2
Let's see, what has decades of trade imbalance got us and what has it gotten China?
Us (US): An outflow of currency. And not just any currency, but dollars, the world's most popular currency. The Chinese can use it to either loan us money, buy goods and services from us, or buy US property. It's their choice, and we're at a disadvantage. We've provided extensive training for their best and brightest.
We've also shipped many jobs abroad, not only to China, but to much of the world, contributing to the 40 years of wage stagnation for all but the rich.
China has gotten American intellectual property, from software to other ideas. It has modernized its economy and built up its infrastructure. It has become an export power. It has started to project its military power beyond its borders.
It has catapulted 150 million people of its billion-plus population into the middle class in the amazingly short space of 2 decades. It has become so rich that it is no longer the world's lowest wage earner.
The Chinese Communist Party has adapted to state-controlled capitalism amazingly well. It has maintained its tight hold on power, limiting what we consider basic freedoms, and deliberately used the Internet as a tool of societal control. So much for market capitalism as a force for freedom.
The Chinese have thrown off foreign yokes. They have far more experience of negotiating with foreigners than even our best diplomats (who Trump has replaced with himself and his son-in-law).
7
Krugman will never admit it, but Trump addressed a problem that previous administrations avoided and made progress, albeit not to the degree he advertises
2
@Upstate Lisa
Please let us know exactly what the "...problem that previous administrations avoided and made progress..." that Mr. Trump has saved us from.
I hate when the alleged actions of the current POTUS are "normalized" by comments such as this.
3
@Upstate Lisa Exactly what "progress" has he made?
The Presidents comments on being a tariff man last year cost me retirement funds. His bombast made 2018 a bad financial year for me.
6
Krugman has a historic record of being very wrong on Trade Deals
From the NY Times, 1993
"Paul Krugman, a trade economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said that for the United States, the agreement is "economically trivial." Professor Krugman supports the treaty, saying he thinks it will help to keep free-market reformers in power in Mexico. He sums up the war of words this way: "The anti-Nafta people are telling malicious whoppers. The pro-Nafta side is telling little white lies."
NY Times SEPT. 17, 1993
The "economically trivial" agreement consequences were , to just discuss Syracuse NY, that GM's Fisher plant on GM circle closed and moved production to Mexico, as did Carrier Air conditioning, and New Process Gear work
Thousands lots there jobs, sending Syracuse , once a prosperous City , into a death spiral of increasing poverty
Mr. Krugman is now highly paid opinion writer, while Shannon Mulcahy who's becoming a steel worker liberated her, saw her job disappear to Mexico
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/14/us/union-jobs-mexico-rexnord.html
10
@Woof
Sorry Woof but you are barking up the wrong tree. Millions of people in the US are now able to buy more cars and air conditioners at better prices than before. The impact of NAFTA in the global US economy was mostly beneficial if somewhat trivial as Paul Krugman suggested in 1993.
You may have had a better bone to pick if you suggested that some of the benefits of cheaper goods should be used to re-train and assist those affected by the shifting markets. But in the aggregate free trade is good for the overall economy. We just have to manage the transition properly.
Just as we have to manage the permanent unemployment or underemployment (gig economy) that technology is bringing upon us.
13
@Woof
The profit motive and the American consumer addicted to cheap imports are the problem. Despite tariffs, our trade deficit remains at record levels while our national budget deficit and consumer debt have as well. Production is moving from China to other low wage countries where healthcare, environmental regulations, and worker protections are minimal.
If we wanted to turn things around, we would make it profitable to manufacture here. Revamping our onerous healthcare system, improving our infrastructure, and moving to inexpensive renewable energy sources would be a start. In the end, we have to export as well. We can't if we expect to be the only nation with consumers who have a decent standard of living. The Chinese are certainly no angels but, even the details of this latest trade deal being talked about will not change much. Only corporate America can change things and, they currently, are extremely profitable.
Syracuse flourished from the advent of the canal system and from industries such as the Solvay process. Sadly, that industry turned Onondaga Lake into the dirtiest body of water in the nation. Today, less than half of it is safe for swimming and, the canal, well we know what happened there while other cities such as Seattle, Charleston, Atlanta, and those of "silicon valley" have risen, primarily from globalization.
The tariffs do not change the fundamentals of any of this. Tariffs are a lazy way of thinking about the problem. We can do better.
2
@Woof Krugman was stupid and offensive to use the phrase "economically trivial". He should have said "will have little impact on US GDP". The consequences of NAFTA were not trivial for workers who lost their jobs but there was little impact on GDP.
But US manufacturing jobs were disappearing before NAFTA and would have continued disappearing even if there had been no NAFTA. The number of US manufacturing jobs has been going down for many years - but the total of US manufacturing has been going up. Workers are being replaced by robots. That is not going to stop, no matter what trade agreements we have or do not have.
1
It is far too easy to isolate the words and actions of our President. from those who receive the benefits. It is as though they were anonymously standing behind the teller's window at their own track accepting the sucker's cash while he calls the race.
The members of Congress on both sides of the aisle as well as almost anyone who greatly benefits from the most recent reassignment of wealth aka "tax cuts" can be found without too much looking as most are silently standing in the bank deposit line.
I'd have no squawk if we were united as we were during WW2, but that unity died twenty years after President Eisenhower left office.
President Reagan buried the American Dream and no amount of staged hugging by our showman-in-chief will resurrect it.
Sorry kids.
18
Some defenders of this administration posit that honest people can differ about trade, finance, and monetary policies.
That might be the case, even when Mr. Trump's joyriding with the world's economy is like one of those six- and seven- year olds sneaking into the family car at night and setting off on a chaotic 20-mile drive.
But not as long as there's any possibility that he or anyone in his administration have hidden motives, whether for profit or worse.
8
Trump's made so many unforced errors, it's hard to keep track of them, so thank you for reminding me about the tariffs. The tragedy, of course, is the very real financial consequences that were suffered by many, for instance the lentil farmers. Like the bogus government shutdown, and the bogus national emergency, Trump is always ready to harm others just to serve his own ego.
31
Tariff man still doesn’t realize that the tariffs he imposed were a tax on Americans. Wonder what his Wharton school marks were?
49
@From Gravesend Trump didn't even make the Dean's List. Keep in mind also that he did not attend the prestigious MBA program at Wharton -- although he always implies that he did. There is NO WAY he had the qualifications for that. Instead he went to the undergrad program in economics. According to the daughter of one of his professors on Quora.com, he did so badly that he was given a "D" in the course and would have received a failing grade but that professor never gave out failing grades for some reason. We probably won't ever know what his grades were because as Michael Cohen mentioned, all his schools were threatened not to release his grades.
12
@From Gravesend
I'm confident Trump knows his tariffs are a tax on Americans. He knows the power of his in-the-pocket media to convince them of untruths. He's offsetting the higher deficit created with his tax cuts giveaway to the rich.
3
Oh, I thought everybody knew that.
He had a consistent Medium White Chocolate Easter Bunny average.
Accountancy was not his thing—a consistent Pudding Pops student—and neither was Business Law (low Mr. Pibb’s, two years running). But he did really well with Evading Ethics (Hershey Bar), and was apparently a whiz at Incoherent Screaming at Underlings, where his honors thesis took home the Two Hagen Scoop Award that year.
To reassure Paul Krugman, the rest of the world has known for a long time that any international agreement the U.S. signs is "just a suggestion". Reagan withdrew the US from the ICJ in 1986, Bush junior rescinded the signature of the Kyoto protocol ... with Republican presidents bearing a disproportionate share of repudiations. It is realism, not trust, that governs other countries' relations with the U.S. (or with other bullies).
30
Trade wars aside, the mere election of Trump showed the rest of the world that (1) almost half the US electorate is stupid and venal enough to vote for a vicious, incompetent buffoon; (2) our archaic 18th century political system makes us unfit to be the leader of the free world.
252
@Pam Rest assured that it's not unique to the US. Almost half of The Netherlands would elect a Dutch Trump. Half of Europe would quit the Union, and so destroy their own wealth out of greed and hatred of other cultures.
It seems peace and wealth do not bring out the best in people.
3
@Pam
Not my President. However, calling half of the electorate stupid tells me why you are in the remotes of Alaska. Beautiful country for fall-outs. Perhaps that half were so desperate for change, and the other alternative was proven unacceptable? Maybe just a perfect storm? Best.
1
@Pam: Odd how many other countries have essentially adopted the United State's archaic form of Government.
I expect Trump has done serious damage to everything he touches. Immigration, which wasn't an emergency is now an emergency. The economy which was spinning is now wobbling. Climate change, health care, Iran, the national debt -- it's like before one of his bankruptcies where Trump tells his stakeholders that things are better than ever while everything is swirling around the drain.
79
@Not Gonna Say
and you didn't even mention his destroying our precious wild lands and national monuments in the name of big coal and oil.
3
"The lesson for the world is that America can’t be trusted."
Although our traditional allies, Dr. K, could rightly conclude that "America can’t be trusted" based on "What the world has learned from Trump’s trade war," I have to believe that our allies would say "Trump can't be trusted," as would a majority of the American people, and that he is atypical, not the archetype of a national leader or the face of America.
13
@Robert Stewart
The GOP has completely lost its moral compass and passion for science (= fact-based national and foreign policies) for almost two decades now, so nothing guarantees that the next GOP president or presidential candidate wouldn't be as crazy, in his own way, as Trump today.
It's the fact that the entire GOP and Fox News and the GOP base fully support what is going on, that makes Trump as a person almost irrelevant.
35
@Robert Stewart Should have added after the last sentence: "Of course, he (Trump) is the face of the Republican Party"
14
The erosion of trust has far reaching consequences. When the US raises the alarm that Hwawei is a risk, we in other parts of the world can’t help but wonder whether this is rooted in competitive interests.
8
We've lived now for a while in a world in which a powerful faction wants to go backward, us versus them, and all that. It's made venality popular again - very public and almost shame-free. The optimistic reading of Mr. Krugman's column is that we go back to what was, mainly free trade, mainly U.S. dominance by being faster and more agile, occasionally more audacious.
But really now we see not only the fragility of leaving so many people behind in the miraculous growth the world has seen, but also the volatility of any system that's (a) based on selfishness, on compromise between self-interested factions; and (b) money-driven campaigns.
Going back to what we had won't solve anything unless we also change the guiding principles.
8
@Bill A
Your Government could provide a safety net for those who have been harmed paid for with the appropriate tax on those who have benefited
3
If Trump was negotiating the purchase of a house on your behalf, you would probably end up paying the seller's closing expenses and giving them six months to get their stuff out. He's that good.
60
@CarpeDiem64
Don't forget a percentage to him when you sold it, whenever that happened.
2
@CarpeDiem64
Actually, I had a lawyer like that. I ended up paying all the closing expenses and half the cost of a new well, without which the property couldn't have been sold to anyone. I was a rube and got taken by the in-crowd. But now the property's worth 6 times more than I paid for it so I suppose in the long run it was an inexpensive lesson.
1
A trade war is what you get when someone lacks diplomatic skill and fails at making deals. A trade war is an exercise in macho posturing designed for show rather than problem solving. A trade war is what you get when someone lacks creative thinking, powers of persuasion and leadership skills. A trade war is the product of narrow minded, zenophobic and hateful thinking. Does that sound like someone you’re familiar with?
28
It is not the U.S. that is unreliable; it is not the U.S. that is easily rolled; it is one man with an overt, textbook case, of narcissistic personality disorder who owns these adjectives.
Despite the famous "checks and balances" of U.S. Government, the U.S. has clearly invested way too much power in the Office of President, a fact only apparent now with such an afflicted incumbent.
53
@A. F. G. Maclagan - We never thought we'd elect a criminal like we did.
1
@A. F. G. Maclagan sorry afg, now the entire country is painted with that brush, don't kid yourself that some of you get a free ride. Sorry.
1
Blame it all on Trump. Easy. But try and explain today's latest NBC WSJ poll that shows him at 46%. That's the same percentage he had on election night 2016. A few more flag hugging photo ops and look out.
9
Trump at 47% is because a majority of Americans is uninformed.
1
@RNS Yes. I have realized the problem is not Trump it is the ignorant culture of the Trump supporter who seem to not understand the concept of check and balances. They do not understand the basic ideas of our constitution. Before you judge me as an elite I am not. I am the son of blue collar mid-westerners with a high school education. I spent 5 years on the road in Trump country entertaining these people as a comedian. I understand the Trump act all too well. I absolutely crushed in Trump country. I know exactly how it is executed. They are incredibly proud of their ignorant culture. All you have to do is talk about god, guns, and the flag. Keep it simple. I discontinued my career as I could no longer stomach pandering to make a buck. Trump has not problem with it. He has said he loves uneducated voters. I moved to California and reinvented as a tech entrepreneur. I evolved. Now my goal is to get off this continent. It's frightening what is happening. The lack of rule of law. The Republican party shameless hypocrisy. The mob mentality. Terrifying.
1
This is what it is all about:
"As described, the deal would do little to address real complaints about Chinese policy, which mainly involve China’s systematic expropriation of intellectual property."
And so history repeats itself, but not in a way which would warm the cockles of an America Firster's heart.
In the 19th century, what greased the skids to a considerable extent for American economic hegemony in the 20th century was that the US, right and left, upwards and sideways, ripped off intellectual property from Europe.
Let it be acknowledged.
Europe complained, but did not care all that much because it was still so far ahead of America - at the time.
But then the First and the Second World Wars happened. And, of a sudden, there was a brain drain to the US, particularly in terms of the Third Reich's unwanted Jewish citizens, and the increasing grip which America had achieved on innovation - while Europe slept - became insurmountable.
In the same way, President Trump, driven by bluster and portraits of himself in his own country clubs, has no way of distinguishing a short term gain in soybean exports from a long term loss in terms of copyrights, patents, and trade secrets.
So, the new Chinese hegemon will be emergent because short term and egotistical thinking such as what comes from a guy who couldn't really make it in real estate and so found himself flakking for steaks and bogus college degrees, will have sold our priceless intellectual advantage for a pother.
8
@Arbitrot: well spoken, if only stating the obvious. I.e., the English, after arriving in India in the early 17th cent., expropriated Indian textile manufacturing equipment, took it back to London in order to help launch their own textile industry [referred to as the "Industrial Revolution"]. Stealing technologies from other nations is quite old, although Marco Polo's bringing spaghetti back to Italy [more than a millenium before Italy existed]: was that theft or merely benign cultural appropriation?
POTUS 45: he's another kettle of fish altogether, and he/it certainly isn't benign. Pretty stinky, in fact.
1
The trade deal requires the Chinese to purchase more American goods and allows for tariffs to be put in place if the Chinese attempt to steal intellectual property. It basically puts a check on the Red Chinese after decades of abuse that was largely ignored by previous administrations. We know it’s a good deal because Krugman is against it. This is the man who predicted that the Internet was going to be as revolutionary as the fax machine don’t ya know.
@Registered Repub
We know it's all bad when you disagree with Krugman.
@Registered Repub
Any link to back up your claim?
Donald Trump ran a campaign based on xenophobia. Among other baseless allegations, he claimed that trade and defense partners had taken advantage of America because of poor American negotiators over many years. As the master of the "art of the deal", he would roll back trade agreements, get China and other countries (Mexico, Canada, the EU!) to back down, and bring back manufacturing jobs like in the 1950s. This was a set of lies and falsehoods. But what else could anyone expect from a pathological liar and ignoramus? It played well to Trump's base which wanted simple solutions, not deep analysis. Trump knew, as a con man, that all he needed to do was put on a show. That he has done. And he could even milk trade tariffs to make money for himself and his family (exemptions? money in off-shore account in exchange for going easy on particular companies?).
12
The Iran deal was the "worst deal ever" and even though the Iranians lived up to their part, Trump tore it up. The Korean deal, however, is Trump at his negotiating best....a long flight and a longer train ride resulting in congrats from the Right for walking away from no deal at all.
I drove past M.I.T.; can I get a degree?
There is nothing (zero) that our second-worst president couldn't have done better than Trump.
14
The view from Asia is different. From the Nikkei Asian Review
ECONOMY
Trade war-hit China faces slowest growth in 3 decades next year
TAKESHI KIHARA, Nikkei staff writer
DECEMBER 26, 2018 16:45 JST
"HONG KONG -- China's economy will grow at the slowest pace in 29 years in 2019, as the true impact of the trade war with the U.S. sets in, a new survey of economists projects.
The world's No. 2 economy is expected to expand 6.2% in real terms, based on the average forecasts of 32 economists polled by Nikkei and its group company, Nikkei Quick News. China's outlook is becoming murkier, with many of the economists saying the effects of fiscal stimulus and other measures are unlikely to show up until the second half of 2019 or thereafter."
China neighbours, increasingly bullied by a rising China, taking over the South China Sea, appreciate that the US won the trade war.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-war-hit-China-faces-slowest-growth-in-3-decades-next-year
2
@talesofgenji
Did they explain how the US can be winning the trade war when the trade deficit between the US and China has grown because China's exports to the US have not declined nearly so much as America's exports to China?
5
@talesofgenji
Nikkei is the Wall Street Journal of Japan, complete with the Tokyo share listings.
It's no more "the view from Asia" than the WSJ is the view from America.
Want proof? It says the US won the trade war. Just like Japan didn't lose WW2.
As always, Professor Krugman denigrates anything Trump with conclusory, unsupported criticisms with no underlying facts. How do you criticize a deal that has not been announced? Well, Krugman uses wiggle words like "appears" and "as described" and "If this story is true...." He quotes "trade experts I know," but doesn't name them. He then assumes and presents the "possibility" that the negotiations will look in retrospect like "a passing storm with no long term consequences" as fact.
This isn't journalism or legitimate opinion. Krugman is just collecting a check furthering the NYT business model of attacking anything Trump.
1
@Red
1. It's an op-ed, not journalism. Op-eds are written by experts on an issue (in this case: economics), not by journalists.
2. What's your definition of a "legitimate" opinion, more precisely?
3. To discover the "underlying" facts, all that you have to do is to click on the links included in this op-ed, remember?
4. Krugman's detailed and well-argued criticism of the deal that is currently being discussed, is based on what "multiple news organizations" reported about that deal. If you click on that link, you'll find the details. Krugman explains here why this kind of deal would mean caving.
5. Conclusion: the only thing without any facts nor links nor arguments and that is merely an ad-hominem attack instead, is clearly your comment here, no ... ?
33
We promise to all cheer when he’s dragged shrieking down the White House steps, though. So there’s that to look forward to.
1
If you followed the facts, you would know since January that the trade was going to be settled (although even Krugman does not know the exact terms, so no final judgment can be made on how)
Reuters , Jan 14th, 2019
First U.S. crude cargoes head to China since trade breakthrough:
Collin Eaton
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Three cargoes of U.S. crude are heading to China from the U.S. Gulf Coast, trade sources said on Monday, the first departures since late September and a 90-day pause in the two countries’ trade war that began last month.
https://in.reuters.com/article/us-usa-crude-exports/first-us-crude-cargoes-head-to-china-since-trade-breakthrough-sources-idINKCN1P82LN
No Trump fan, but he addressed a problem that needed to be addressed. China is doing too much mischief with the 300 plus billion the US sends her every year
1
Yeah there is nothing like declaring your largest trading partner and longtime ally as a security risk.
24
What would you prefer, NFL players protesting by respectfully taking a knee, or a President rubbing his makeup packed face on, and disrespectfully wrapping his body around our American flag while using it as a gag-prop? This guy cannot help but disgust...it's in his DNA. Of course, those fans of Fox News (read the great expose in the last issue of The New Yorker) will get a totally pro-Trump slant on this, i.e., "Trump reached out and grabbed the flag to prevent it from falling to the ground, and the crowd cheered."
10
Republicans are for free trade. I don't know what Trump is but he's not a Republican.
6
Call a perfectly fine window "A disaster! This is the worst window ever!". Throw a brick through it. Fix the window for $100 and call it a "Huge, massive victory!".
The only problems Trump seems to be able to "solve" are the ones he creates out of thin air.
This is not governance, it's a Mobius strip of "break and fix".
4
Never attribute to stupidity that which is adequately explained by greed.
The possibility that Trump would throw in the towel on a trade war because China threatened not to renew its $2M Trump Tower lease is not shocking. After all the Saudis booked 500 nights at a Trump hotel for $270K and they were able to redeem their reward points for presidential assistance in covering up the torture and murder of an American resident and WaPo columnist. Of course Trump isn't all about dollars -- he's was happy to act as a character witness for the sociopath mass murderer Kim Jong Un after he ordered the slow execution of an American citizen apparently all for a delusional belief that some future horrendous agreement will result in a Nobel Peace Prize. Perhaps the South Korean government should strongly consider buying up a few Mar-a-Lago memberships.
One could hope that America's reputation and trustworthiness will begin to quickly improve once we end this failed presidency. But there is the matter of his support and what it says about the reliability of the American people. Despite the overwhelming evidence that Trump is a criminal who dabbles in politics rather than the expected worst-case scenario of a politician who dabbles in illegal behavior, he is supported by a steady 40% of Americans.
Recovery of America's reputation is going to take a very long time.
16
We really aren't surprised, but his profanity is truly disgraceful and if his supporters don't think so, than they are no better.
He's unbelievably crass and hardly a role model. Now he thinks he's a stand up comedian, SNL look out.
5
Any idea with the word war in it is a waste of money and resources.
1
US M CA agreement? No, it’s US CA M agreement. UScaM is just a slightly tweaked NAFTA.
1
Will someone explain the Village People reference? I didn't realize that TVP and Paul Krugman existed in the same universe.
1
I have never negotiated a trade deal but it would seem to involve nuance, a thorough understanding of leverage and sustained negotiation. Trump is capable of none of these. If it can't be done in 2 days or if the other side cannot be persuaded by the hypothetical strength of the president's magnetic personality, agreements will not be reached. And to blow off allies in the process is mistake that will have long term unwelcome consequences.
5
Trump is not much of an abstract thinker. If he were, he would be more interested in the consequences of his actions. Therefore we will identify him as a concrete thinker defined here: Concrete thinking refers to the thinking on the surface whereas abstract thinking is related to thinking in depth. Concrete thinking does not have any depth. It just refers to thinking in the periphery. ... While some mental process is involved in abstract thinking, no such effort is evolved in concrete thinking.
2
It’s simply Critical Thinking. Can one draw a logic chain of thinking? When specifying cause to an effect, are other potential causes eliminated(deduced) What are the predicted effects of the cause(or policy action).
Trump, I agree, doesn’t think this way. Not even close.
1
We can add trade war economic damage to Trump's other economic and budgetary damage:
1. Job creation faster in Obama's last 24 months (212,000/month) than Trump's first 24 months (203,000/month).
2. Budget deficit up 60% in 2018 and nearly 40% 2018-2027 vs. Obama baseline (the January 2017 CBO forecast).
3. Number without health insurance up an estimated 7 million vs. the end of 2016, according to Gallup.
4. Real wage growth faster in 2015-2016 (1.7%) than 2017-2018 (0.4%).
5. Mortgage rates up nearly one percentage point since Trump was elected, from 3.5% to around 4.3% now.
6. Stock market was up 85% in Obama's first term and 79% in Clinton's first term. So far, Trump is up 23%.
7. Trump's tax cuts favor the rich, who get a larger boost to their after-tax income. This means wealth and income inequality will be worse. In contrast, the ACA taxes on the rich and transfers to the poor (and letting the Bush tax cuts expire for the top 1-2%) improved inequality measured between 2007 and 2015, the latest CBO data available.
Stop messing with the Obama Boom!
73
@David Doney
Good job David!
Rant, part the second. Intellectual property as a good cause for any kind of war, trade or otherwise. My background is in what today is called high technology. It has been a long time since products and processes have been ‘protected’ by patents, copyright , or industrial secrecy. All is portable. All is either free or cheap. Fifty years ago, every semiconductor (chip) company devoted considerable resources to the euphemistic ‘reverse engineering’, i.e. dissection of competing product with the express goal of copying anything useful. Technologists are extremely mobile, across company and national boundaries, and their knowledge goes with them. Our best universities have for decades, helped in the effective mobility of precisely the most important knowledge of our age. Even our fairly silly patent system is incompatible with international norms, typically also far too slow to follow developments in a world where a product can go from conception to market in under two months. Even our most assiduously controlled ‘secrets’, those related to national security are often public downloads from tiny, cheap civilian satellites. Don’t try to hide that tank or missile launch base, you can’t! Have multinational companies entrusted with developing ‘top secret’ tech...are you kidding?
The bottom line: economic profit belongs to the first in; and laggards can’t catch up. Trade wars make laggards.
4
“Meanwhile, the sudden retreat in the confrontation with China shows that we talk loud but carry a small stick.” Waddya mean “we”? It is really just Trump who talks loud, and carries his small stick in his tiny hands. Once he’s gone the world will hopefully forgive our momentary loss of sanity and regain confidence in our nation as a stable trading partner and global leader...unless we manage to re-elect him, in which case we are lost forever.
22
@Bruce Crabtree An obnoxious person like Trump just makes the rot obvious. Think Libya, Vietnam, Chile, Guantanamo, Guatemala, Cuba, softwood lumber, the list goes on to infinity. Obama, who was a Nobel prize winning nice guy was droning men women and childred from California a half-world away using video gamers. The US is a country that has set up the world's international institutions in its favor, and still thinks the playing field is leveled against them. Turn on the TV any day and you can see American soldiers heavily outnumbered and outgunned fighting bravely against the odds.
is it lasting damage? let's say Turkey replaces Erdogan with a better leader, will we say, well Erdogan? I think we would say, thank god and let's get back to business. I think the world recognizes this President is a fluke, temporary, and is simply doing it's best to survive us now till we return to normality. Although I wish Obama could have seved longer, so glad we have term limits for the President.
11
Trump is a flimflam man; his audience is, as always, his base. They believe whatever he says. So he highlights a problem (real, semi-real, or invented), then proclaims that he has fixed it, gotten a "great deal," which no other POTUS in history was capable of getting. "Trump wins." They believe him; he gets another applause line for his rallies. They proclaim him the greatest president ever. It matters not at all to him (or them) whether the problems are real, whether the 'fix' actually solved anything, or whether it is good or bad for America. It is good for Trump - Trump wins - that is his one and only goal in life. His deluded fans seem to think that if it is good for Trump it is good for them.
37
The older I get, the more I believe that most people don’t really know what’s in their best interest. The result: Mr. Trump is our president.
41
@Jay Cohen
Mencken put it best: "Democracy is the theory that the people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard."
@Jay Cohen
They want someone to worship and have found it in the cult of trump. For sure, this is not in their best interest, They may even know that. There are enough of them - it's like a controlling interest.
“....that America can’t be trusted...”. While I like to think that we have a dreadful, dangerous, little epoch underway, I’m also pretty sure that American reliability or trustworthiness or even admiration is not as general as Dr. Krugman thinks. We’ve been incredibly strong in dollars and weapons for a little more than half a century, but let’s not confuse strength with trust. Certainly, most of South America trusts the United States to be an interfering bully. Europe ran out the rebuilding assistance afterglow a while ago. Russia, of course, predicated decades of policy on not trusting us, and China....well, building up the military is not basking in admiration for the trustworthiness of our trade, hegemony or democratic superiority.
Yes, markets, about which I know very little, depend on global predictability and some form of stability, but markets do not define national morality, or even if Americans drift into some ugly form of bimodal serfdom.
But about trade war: Like shooting war, the winners and losers both lose. So small businesses here, starved of materials, have to fold, and large businesses relocate offshore. So consumers actually pay those putative billions trump talks about. So anybody, anywhere who isn’t directly involved gets a jump start in a hyperspeed global economy. So what?
Our very large big stick isn’t so much admired, as feared.
7
@Marat1784
In real life, it's because the strong US-EU-Canada alliance that Obama succeeded where Trump is failing (see his Iran denuclearization deal, for instance).
If you don't believe it existed, can you please name one international agreement that was rescinded during the last decades, and rescinded unilaterally by the US, after having respected its word for years?
My guess: you won't be able to do so because until now US presidents always had the discipline to respect our international engagements.
4
Off topic: Why the heck is he hugging that flag??
19
Didn’t you hear?
trump can walk right up to the Flag and do what he wants, just grab them by the stripes, and they let him.
@Victoria Bitter
Although hugging itself is not frowned on by the DAR rules for treatment of the flag, his joviality and use of the flag for self promotion would be considered contrary to the intent and is an abomination and despicable desecration of what most Americans hold dear. Apparently, however, his followers don't give a hoot.
@Victoria Bitter
To make his supporters believe that instead of being in it for himself, somehow he wants to and knows how to respect and even increase America's greatness, of course.
A scat in the cookie jar.
4
Seems to me that this is SOP for Individual-1. He occasionally surprises us (very occasionally), but mostly, he blusters and backs down.
He's so invested in his "tough guy" image. But think about him: He caves all the time and — sorry, there's no other way to put it — he's a metrosexual wuss who goes to the tanning salon, dyes his hair, fusses and frets constantly about what everybody is saying about him and is even wildly flamboyant in his mannerisms.
THIS is a tough guy? Really?
18
Again I say, "Krugman For President"! Trump is so disastrous for America. I should say Trump and his base, for these are the imbeciles that were duped by by this moron of great proportion. The picture accompanying this article is absolutely nauseating in the extreme. I've always been a Democrat, but have never been so sickened by what the republicans represent. I am trying to be nice as I don't want my comments to be panned by the Times.
13
@Martin Sorenson
Of course, it's nauseating. Who is being duped?
How to waste the right to vote hard won by the hundreds of thousands of Americans who gave their lives for it.
How not to vote for a President.
How not to be a President.
How not to be a Senator or
Congressman.
These are the lessons of Trump.
31
@Gracie Sounds like the same lessons Australia needs to learn for the 100,000 names on the War Memorial in Canberra. Seems that Australia's prime minister (small caps), Morrison, is not much better than Trump, not to mention ex-prime ministers from the Liberal Party like John Howard and Tony Abbott giving character references for a convicted pedophile.
Once Australian politicians have dealt with Reconciliation, Aboriginal Rights, the degraded environment, a lickspittle approach to American foreign policy, and climate change, then maybe your points will make more sense.
http://www.princeton.edu/~reddings/papers/CEPR-DP13564.pdf
March 2, 2019
The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare
By Mary Amiti, Stephen J. Redding, and David Weinstein
Abstract
This paper explores the impacts of the Trump administration’s trade policy on prices and welfare. Over the course of 2018, the U.S. experienced substantial increases in the prices of intermediates and final goods, dramatic changes to its supply-chain network, reductions in availability of imported varieties, and complete passthrough of the tariffs into domestic prices of imported goods. Overall, using standard economic methods, we find that the full incidence of the tariff falls on domestic consumers, with a reduction in U.S. real income of $1.4 billion per month by the end of 2018. We also see similar patterns for foreign countries who have retaliated against the U.S., which indicates that the trade war also reduced real income for other countries.
25
Don't forget the extra 12 or 20 billion we all spent to pay farmers for the damages of the poorly-considered trade war w/China. Remember, too, as was pointed out by another reader a few weeks ago that the same farmers were hurt again by the shutdown - cutting off access to those funds at the time of year when they need to make their big expenditures.
How can we generate a one-page list to each voter showing how much extra comes out of their pockets due to the bad deals, misdeals, tax giveaway, forgiveness of criminality (from Education department on) and loosening of safety and pollution laws that have showered us these past two years?
The coal jobs aren't coming back, but the safety rules aren't either - but gee the company owners sure donate at lot to the guy who said he was too rich to be bought.
39
@b fagan
If the primaries didn't start with a state dominated by agribusiness (soon followed by southern states) we wouldn't have such Farm Bill handouts to non-farmers (and black/white southern strategies of both parties). Why worry about biases coming from our electoral college system when the general election only reduces the candidates from 2 to 1? The primary process (in a two party system) is where the REAL reduction of choices for the voters is skewed. The SEQUENCE of primary contest results is the whole ball game - and the media are the power brokers... and they know it. This is not democracy. (In nearly all the world's democracies there are pre-election media blackout periods.) In a representational democracy, the results of each regional contest should be INDEPENDENT of one another. But not for us! By the time they get to California it's pretty much a done deal.
3
@b fagan
Those were not FARMERS who got those billions; they were "agribusinessmen".
And if coal isn't coming back, safety rules aren't really an issue... at least here. Afterall, this is how the Erie Canal got cleaned up. (I wonder how many Erie Canals can be found in China these days.)
4
@b fagan and let's not forget the $12bn cost of the futile government shutdown - another climbdown by the self-professed master deal-maker.
6
"So much winning!"
Did you mean to write "So much whining"?
17
Trump's doesn't have the foggiest idea what he's doing, let alone a strategy.
76
Beg to differ. His strategy is to increase his personal wealth, to make Bankruptcy-Trump great again.
1
I find it an odd occurrence that Trump's positions seem oddly like the publicity surrounding "Leaving Neverland." I started to stream the film this evening, but found it so revolting that I stopped about 30 minutes in. Not that the language nor circumstances nor victims made me squeamish, but that for so long so many people just didn't know the meaning of "greatness." Was Michael Jackson great? Well, at one or two things, maybe, but to his faithful, he was as if he were the "wonderful, counselor, almighty." And at the same time, Trump's protectors still use similar, though more contemporary, terms. We in the US just don't know what "greatness" is any more.
25
@pwcombs3
Yeah. Too many people are all into the Kardashians as if they are important when they don't really amount to more than a hill of beans as my grandmother would have said!
(I’m still wondering about those floors China’s largest bank rents at Trump Tower.)
I am wondering if it is possible/legal to force Trump and family to forfeit those rents (either back to the bank or to our treasury).
21
@exhausted by it all Last week one network mentioned Felix Sater had a office on Trump's floor in Trump Tower. They also mentioned, and I only heard this once so it might be iffy, that it was rent free. Makes you wonder, if true.
7
@exhausted by it all
Even Better!
From NYT Garrett M. Graff's Mar 4 Opinion piece.
"It [RICO indictment] would also activate powerful forfeiture tools for prosecutors that could allow them to seize the Trump Organization’s assets and cut off its income streams."
Prick a gasbag and what do you get? Gas.
The man is lukewarm air at best, stale and fetid.
What is astonishing are the rubes who fall for this nonsense.
107
@Jay Dwight
And what's truly sad is, they can never admit to having made a mistake.
4
Agree, and what about the politicians, who know better and who have sworn to uphold the Constitution and still slither around him?
2
Swindler Donald found a constituency that believes his bombastic rants about trade with other countries being unfair. He repeats it constantly, and those who saw their jobs go to the low price companies are convinced those tariffs can bring them back.
The only way they can come back is if labor is willing to work for the lower wages and what most of us consider substandard working conditions. We have seen various agencies undermining those conditions with the appointment of anti regulation secretaries, cutting pollution controls, health and safety, working hour restrictions, all for the benefit of being able to compete with those other countries. We moved way beyond those conditions with the rise in labor unions, the GOP has been working to eliminate their influence ever since.
Those jobs are not coming back in the foreseeable future, when costs increase in those countries, business moves to the next low cost country, it is the history of business. Now under this despot even our honesty and quality of goods is challenged. The ability of a president to cause such havoc has to be legislated away, we thought we were rid of such with the defeat of Hoover, but the GOP never gave up trying to restore the old ways. Now we see they need to be sent packing again.
We will always have those among us who will try to take advantage of the uninformed, the envious, the uneducated. We have to remain vigilant, respect and trust are earned, not given by a commandment from a sociopath.
46
Mr. Trump apparently now (finally) recognizes that (i) his trade war with China is damaging our economy; (ii) that a robust economy is a necessary precondition for his re-election; and (iii) that re-election is necessary to prevent his immediate indictment on a host of criminal charges.
36
@Scott Forlorn hope that the GOP will finally grow a spine and decline to nominate him.
5
The New NAFTA is DOA with Canada and Mexico as long as the tariffs remain in place. The Great Negotiator talks like it’s a done deal. Not so fast bud. As it stands this deal is going nowhere.
29
Didn't Stormy say that while Trump promised a lot, he carried a small stick?
105
@Jack be Quick ...best post of the day. Thanks for brightening my day during America's Reign of Error.
2
Donald Trump maybe unfit to be president for 3 important reasons: 1. He's hypomanic, has been so since his teen age years or earlier. He was a difficult child, throwing temper tantrums as well as throwing things. The family sent him to a military school, where he surprisingly thrived. He remained probably "subclinically" hypomanic all his life.
2. He's also extremely narcissistic; narcissism presented itself in an exaggerated fashion because of his hypomania. Both narcissism & hypomania probably have been innate.
3. He's dyslexic. Because of hypomania & impatience he could not try to overcome his dyslexia. he doesn't read.
On the plus side, he's highly charismatic, which is also innate, and has a natural good looks. He has been blessed with fairly good intelligence.
With all 3 handicaps, he learned to manage in the real world with his wit, good looks & charisma.
He made numerous mistakes in his business dealings owing to his impulsivity & extreme ambition from his hypomania & narcissism.
He didn't care to be president. Running for it was an ego-trip, another flawed "business decision." But once he became president, he wants to "win."
Lying has become a second nature to him. He lies unabashedly.
I don't think he's a sociopath. He has a modicum of humanity in him, which shows up every so often, but far from a bleeding heart.
As a run of the mill psychiatrist, I feel he would respond to a modest dose of a mood stabilizer, say around 450 mg/day of lithium or equivalent.
14
@A.G.
“On the plus side, he's highly charismatic,”
Really?
This part I don’t get.
He seems cringeworthy and repulsive to me.
8
@A.G.
Define "humanity," and an example would be nice.
2
@strangerq Now more than ever, yes, but look at him when he was younger. If you didn't know him at all, you'd say he was good looking and he had/has his moments. Sometimes I think he's playing a big joke on us but this is not a laughing matter. I think he enjoys being provocative which I used to also when I was younger, so I can relate but I grew up.
He definitely has not aged well.
2
I was in Montreal two weeks ago and apologized for Trump to around a dozen Canadians met in the course of everyday business. To a person they were gracious and seemed to appreciate it. More than one consoled me by saying, "Oh, it not your fault." One waiter added, "I hope" and I assured her Trump was not my fault.
19
That poor flag! Did anyone think to throw a bucket of water to stop this assault? He has been doing it figuratively for years, now we saw him in action
16
Just had dinner with a friend of mine from college, who is Japanese and lives in Yokohama.
The Japanese refer to Trump's administration as....
"The Reign of Error"
285
@FrankWillsGhost ... And according to multiple reports that he does not deny, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe just nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
2
@FrankWillsGhost Good thing he didn't win the popular vote. Trump is Putin's error, not the American people's. This, oh so tragic mistake, was foisted upon us by our greatest adversary. Nothing about this is an error according to Vlad the impaler.
2
Dr. K, you need to understand what winning is. Winning is when DJT gets the publicity he craves so he has forums to declare he won. Facts are what he says they are.
You need to get out of that Costal Elite Liberal real-reality and realize he has alt-won again when you Libsplain that his trade deal (or his Kim summit or his alt-wall) was not really a win at all. See, he just alt-won again because I wrote this comment.
7
The conclusion that the world now thinks "America can't be trusted" is myopic. Any thinking person or country knows it is not America, it is Trump, alone, that cannot be trusted.
He is clearly a destructive simpleton. Once he's gone, America Will be Great again!
7
@Marty
We cannot disown Trump. Trump is the face we chose to show to the world. That Trump would ever get the nomination of our dominant party, and go on to win the presidency, that is on us, not Trump.
Even if Trump were to somehow disappear tomorrow, there remains something deeply wrong with us. Sometimes democracy works, even when you would rather it not.
18
@Marty
Trump is supported 24/7 by the GOP.
When one of a country's two major political parties supports this kind of madness, I don't think other countries will imagine that it's only one American who's creating so much trouble here.
20
@Marty
Trump is also enabled by the party that stands behind him.
17
Krugman is absolutely right, our all-hat-no-cattle president will brag about what great "deals" he made and how we're "winning." All he's doing, over and over, is creating crises where none existed and then claiming to have solved the problem when he backs down. What a loser this guy is.
20
Why should anyone with an ounce of sense believe that the United States has a stable government?
There is no evidence of a corrective force or underlying stability to bring this country back on a sane, lawful, and humane course. It may not be obvious to most of our fellow citizens, but it certainly apparent to most of the rest of the world.
16
DJT will no doubt trumpet it as the "Greatest Trade Agreement of All Time". All true believers will accept it as testament to DJT's greatness and validation for their unyielding support for the Great One. Yet there will be no tangible difference in their lives. The spell is strong.
11
Yes, today his polls rose and 90% of Republicans say they approve of the job he is doing. I believe most know Trump is bad but just want "stick it to the libs" as many have been saying.
@Basic
You mean the "smell", not "spell", is strong. Right?
The trade war likely ends with China making substantive concessions; Trump correctly declaring a huge win on behalf of the American people; the stock market surging on the news; the current economic expansion becoming the longest in history after being given the necessary shot in the arm from Trump's mix of low tax and low regulation policies; and Trump riding to yet another victory in 2020 as Trump's efficacy as president becomes harder to rationally dispute.
1
@Bill And on what basis do you support your argument? Please read Paul Krugman's article about how his tariffs have hurt working people, not helped them. Operating from the point of view of blind faith may feel good, but it is still blind faith.
12
@Ambroisine
I base my argument on the fact that China seems to be very concerned about this trade war not ending or getting worse (more concerned that we are). Their economy is already showing concerning signs of potentially much slower growth than they are used to, and right now the market kind of assumes a deal will be struck. If a deal were not struck in this go-around, it seems likely that global corporations will start pulling serious funds that they would have previously invested in China; that's when it potentially gets real bad for them. As I understand the unofficial "contract" between the government and the people in China, the government provides a better life via economic opportunity, and people don't complain about the absence of freedom. If the government can't deliver the growth over a sustained period of time, or even starts to experience negative growth, it faces a potentially existential threat.
I think at this point China is going to be willing to give up quite a bit to go back to something approaching business as usual. Paul Krugman will of course say whatever they give us was of no utility.
Also, tariffs are supposed to hurt! A trade war is...a war! You don't go into battle expecting that the act of battling is going to immediately improve your lot; you expect the opposite (that you'll have to make sacrifices over the short-term). We'll see if the short-term pain actually results in a good trade deal. I'm more optimistic than some...
1
@Bill lol sure, sure.
6
People all over the world think that the US is getting scarier, with most registering unfavorable opinions about American hegemony in general, and Trump in particular.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/14/more-people-around-the-world-see-u-s-power-and-influence-as-a-major-threat-to-their-country/
But judging from a Gallup poll done around the same time, it seems that Trump is far from alone in his delusional arrogance. Nearly half the Americans surveyed declared themselves to be perfectly satisfied with our world standing - a 13-year satisfaction high. They're absolutely convinced that the whole world respects us. Another 29% even believe that world leaders respect Trump. It just so happens that these smug magical thinkers are also self-declared Republicans, who no doubt get much of their info from Fox News.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/227939/satisfaction-world-standing-hits-year-high.aspx
As "The New Yorker's" Jane Mayer reports, the White House and Fox News are no longer bothering to hide the fact that they are now the same corporate enterprise.
Propaganda works, and it works well. When Trump brayed at a rally that "I love the poorly educated," he wasn't kidding.
So besides investigating Trump corruption, Democrats should push for a Marshall Plan to rescue public education in this country, perhaps insert it in the Green New Deal as an emergency declaration to salvage America's critical thinking skills at the same time we try to save our planet.
137
Jack Ma of Alibaba said what I agree with. He said “ The business of China is business, the business of America is war”.
If America is not invading another country militarily, or trying to change its “regime”, then it starts a Trade War.
The key word is war. Always war.
52
@Thomas
That's what got Rome into trouble. Those who live by the sword die by the sword.
1
Whomever the next democratic president might be, their first year of state visits to other nations may well earn the label Apology Tour. sigh. Let's hope we sound sincere.
23
"a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing."
- Shakespeare's Macbeth
"all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre—the man who can most adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum.
The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
- H L Mencken
And so, for the second time in sixteen years, America's Electoral College - a colonial-era Trump University - along with neo-Jim Crow voter laws, crowns yet another Republican dunce of epic proportions where domestic nation-destroying takes yet another prideful, patriotic bow.
The Party of Stupid always, always lives up to its subterranean IQ.
Dumb nations finish last.
Remember in 2020.
612
@Socrates
I wish I could agree but I am still reading the same hymnal I used when Reagan was elected.
Reagan was the worst President ever. The great pitchman from tv was the great pitchman for an America that never was and never would be. I don't know anything of more obvious irony than an anti-smoking fake hero pitching cigarettes to his fellow Americans after the health consequences started emerging.
I can understand the Trump voters wanting to destroy America. Nobody conveys the phoniness that has made so many of America's children the angry, fearful, insecure middle aged and old people they are today.
Can't you understand that the people you hate hate America. They also know what they are doing.
The only thing that can save America is the truth and the only thing holding America together is the almost universal fear and hatred of the truth.
Trump is America, you can't change Trumps you can only change yourself and only that will change America.
34
@Socrates You blame the electoral college for Trump's victory, but why is that? The electoral college gives national elections local roots, and negates the effect of cheating in states dominated by one party. The small imbalance it generates compared to a national popular vote is a price well worth paying.
@wt One of the purposes the Electoral College was meant to serve is to prevent a demagogue from reaching the White House. In this the electors have manifestly failed. No one mentions that many of them probably fear being sent to jail for violating shortsighted, un-American laws passed by shortsighted, un-American state legislatures if they dare to do what the founding fathers intended them to do. The electors are not free to protect the nation from demagogues because many state legislatures are infested with enemies of the nation the founding fathers envisioned.
24
it is not about the Trade agreements or Tariffs. its about his base. His name/or his administration's name is on it. Now he will tell his base, he squashed the old agreement and replaced it with a "beautiful" one, that will safe America and make America lots of money. Not a single person of his base will fact check him. Hence he has done what he said he set out to do. the rest of us don't matter. Same thing on the Wall, same thing to everything he has done..bottom line we should stop giving him coverage.
26
Is it just me or does everyone think all these trade deals are good for the average American? Yes, all the goods are cheaper, we have a little more pollution, labor in China is exploited. The corporations and the 1% who own them are making money. But, the average Americans are losing good paying jobs. And those that are left are facing pressure. Income for the bottom 50% is barely rising, and after years of stagnation it is not enough! Some farm products have limited shelf life and farmers are probably already impacted.
I mean you have to wonder why stocks which are the key source of income for the top 1% are affected by trade wars. Yes, besides the business uncertainty, it does affect their bottomline.
So while these deals are so-so or worse for the average American, all this potus managed to do was stir up a useless trade war, lose our goodwill internationally and probably even turned some countries away from us.
While it was much ado about nothing, we ended up with the short stick. That is what happens when you carry one to begin with and do6know how to use it!
5
So important to realize that Trump is diminishing America’s credibility worldwide in every sphere: trade, security, human rights. We are losing influence and that will result in greater Asian hegemony, whether China or Russia.
50
There are simply a few things that China would never negotiate with US to begin with, such as favoring state enterprises. Like it or not, it is like you can't ask a Christian church to remove bibles. It's off the table. Trade talk is about maximize the benefit of our nation and comprise is part of the game. In this case, I don't blame Trump's team.
1
@Eric Wang
Yes but if you know that, why doesn't the team?
3
The administration probably sees nothing wrong with appropriation of intellectual property, being unable to understand the terms "appropriation" and "intellectual" and believing that "property" fits Polonius' description of a stolen purse: "'Twas mine; 'tis his." And there is no concept of "good name" in that swamp either.
7
Trump has no "trade policy" or any other policy for governing our nation. He is motivated only by his hatred of his predecessor and his desire to stay in office. The latter requires that he cater to whites in the middle of the country, and thus, his bullying of other countries.
His voters don't care if he wins or is successful with trade policies that actually benefit them or the country at large. They're just angry that good jobs and higher education are no longer handed to them, and that they must now compete with brown-skinned people in this country.
Dr. Krugman and other respected journalists need to stop writing serious columns about this president's "policies", as if he were a decent, sane, qualified man. He is none of these things. He has no use for facts and reality, and neither does his base, who remain in lockstep with him.
Trump's actions only turn on the only thing his base cares about: race. Do they think he helps them? Or, even if he hurts them, does it hurt their brown-skinned neighbors worse? Well, then, he'll order it.
Trump voters will gladly pay more for consumer goods or otherwise see their economic standing decline, as long as they know he represents only them.
And this is all Trump voters want - a president who continues to tell them they're the only "real" Americans, and a president whose policies, he says, help only them. Their views explain every action of Trump's since he took office. This is all they want. This is all they've ever wanted.
239
@Nicholas Rush
Well said.
6
The real question is not, why would the world trust anything the present US sham government (Trump and the GOP) says or does.
It’s, why would the world trust or believe anything the citizens of a country that elected this government say or do?
We have proven ourselves fools and idiots for letting Trump and the GOP happen. We have further proven the “democracy” and “freedom” (for corporations to exploit ruthlessly, let’s be clear) we supposedly espouse to be the fraudulent propaganda it always was.
Our influence is nil, in the world.
That’s the gist of the past two years: exposure of the corrupt comedy the United States really is.
DeTocqueville saw it near the beginning; the rest of us can’t help seeing it now.
39
@Steven Remember that we did not elect this President. Every time you use the word elect you debase history. This president lost the popular vote by almost 3M voices, and the Russian influence is acknowledged but not quantified. Our influence will be gratefully acknowledged once Mr. Trump, Mr. Pence, and Mr. McConnell are removed from office. It's not the United States that has lost its currency: once we say aloha to Mr. Trump, Mr. Pence, and Mr. McConnell, the world will be happy to shake hands again.
6
@Ambroisine
If Hillary solidly won the election, but lost the popular vote by 3M would you feel the same way?
And the quantity of interfence, especially over the internet, is EVERYTHING. China, Iran... Monaco - you name, they do it. (Though nowhere near to the extent that WE do it.)
1
I’m fed up with the media blithely repeating the “intellectual property” concerns of trade deals. Nine in 10 Americans don’t understand the term or its bogosity. Why, I want to know, should someone making $1000/month have to pay royalties to Hollywood for DVDs? And, really, should Americans care if they do or don’t?
For the developing world, enforcement of copyright and patents is payment to the rentier class, extortion as the price of modernity. When our “free trade” deals include such, er, protection, we’re impoverishing the impoverished. What business does the US government have doing that?
1
@James K. Lowden Although, perhaps, well intended, your comment is uninformed. The wealth of the world is now generated in large part, as non-tangible creative. That includes patents and copyright of software, etc. The world isn't a socialist utopia, it's a marketplace of goods that cost to produce. You can't have the world's intellectual labor without paying something to the laborer, and Hollywood has very little to do with this.
11
@James K. Lowden - Another Napster fan stands tall.
If a corporate can legally be a person, why put your knickers in a twist about the creative stuff people put together with heart and mind and magic? It's not like they deserve to be paid for that stuff.....
1
Why do you keep insulting the Village People by comparing them to Trump. Their "YMCA" is far better loved than "MAGA" will ever be.
28
Arn`t bullies always cowards ?
Prime example is donald trump.
Never confronts anyone in face, either talks about that person in front of others or in his twitter storms.
Please Vote that coward out of office in 2020.
37
@B.Sharp: While I agree with your sentiments, bullies will also attack when confronted. When defending yourself, make sure you can and effectively.
1
@Darsan54
Ah yes you are so right, and Thanks for the lovely advice.
1
The vast majority of Canadians are frankly mystified... indeed, astounded... as to how such a colossal, blowhard phony as this Trump individual could garner so much support amongst a seemingly thoughtful, rational people.
Bewildering...
511
@Skeptical Cynic
I live in the US and I'm bewildered.
54
@Skeptical Cynic
"Amongst a seemingly thoughtful, rational people"?
Amongst a formerly thoughtful, rational people.
If the Democrats choose the wrong candidate, Trump will be re-elected in 2020. There is no margin for error.
29
@Gordeaux
As a Dem, WE don't choose the Democratic nominee -- the "democratic" party chooses them for us.
And when the Fix is in, it's in.
17
trump is a master at tearing down the hard work of others and solving "problems" of his own creation.
May we be rid of him and the C listers who surround him.
35
The new sentiment in the business community regarding the China trade war is to encourage a window dressing or "Village People" agreement just to end a ill conceived and economically destructive trade conflict, as with NAFTA 0.8
If the China and steel tariffs go on longer, more companies like Harley Davidson and Tesla will be moving operations out of the US, where commodity and intermediate goods inputs are penalized by tariffs.
It is important to clap and cheer wildly when the Trump-Xi parade goes by, celebrating the most glorious new trade agreement under the heavens.
And for heaven's sake, don't point out that the Emperor has no clothes.
5
Evidence in support of Professor Krugman’s claim that the Trump Adminsitration has irreparably damaged the trust felt by America’s closest allies includes the fact that the Canadian Prime Minister increased his Cabinet by adding a new senior portfolio, the Minister of Trade Divwrsification. Which in the case of Canada simply means diversification away from the US. It is doubtful that Canadian (and other) foreign policy makers want the US in the new Trans Pacific Partnership even if the US sincerely reverses course and asks to join up.
7
"As described, the deal would do little to address real complaints about Chinese policy, which mainly involve China’s systematic expropriation of intellectual property."
I'm curious to see how a POTUS could curb that, since it is written in the contract any foreign company sign in order to make business in China that said company must do a joint venture with a Chinese company and must transfer technology over a certain time frame.
The American companies consciously sign those contracts, profit a lot while there and when they are kicked out (there's a time limit in those contracts) they cry wolf (preferably in a paid WSJ apocalyptic article) in order to score some political points at home.
China doesn't need to "steal" "intellectual property": if you want access to its 700 million middle class consumer power, you have to give something in return to the government that built this giant middle class. After all, middle classes -- specially a 700 million strong one -- are hard to build and don't grow in trees (just ask India).
5
@VK
It may be true that the company consciously signs onto the agreement, but they have no choice if they want to do business in China. China can condition entry into its markets if it so chooses, but why should the US not respond in kind? Maybe we don't need China's IP like they need our IP, but if they are going to make onerous requirements such as the transfer of IP a condition to entry into the marketplace, we ought to be playing hardball when we can.
Just to add a note to this excellent article. Trump's carnival trade war was a sham that saw 45% of the tariffed goods from China EXEMPTED by Trump.
While Trump was exempting good old China, he continues to punish Canada, only 3-4% of whose steel has been exempted. In other words, the real war is being waged against democratic Canada, and the real friendship is with Communist China.
205
Mordant, are you surprised, trump sees only ways to enrich himself. Canada to him is the weak kid that can’t fight back while China and Russia are the big kids that will fall in his loans.
14
@Morant it appears that in order to get anywhere with the US government you have to kill off your own people with reckless abandon. Canada is too civilized to be an appropriate partner. Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, North Korea, all these are now favored nations. Here in the US we killed off millions of indigenous peoples so we started out as the mother of all murderous countries and of course, only want to do business with folks like ourselves, genocidal inhumane authoritarian dictatorships.
I think Dr. Krugman is being way too pessimistic on this. When we successfully purge ourselves of the Trump administration, we are bound to have a president who understands s/he cannot recklessly throw their weight around on trade. I don't view the trade mess as deriving from congressional dysfunction or a right-tilted SCOTUS, both of which will still be with us. No, this is 100% Trump's doing, over the objections of even his own economic advisors. Get rid of Trump. Next president will have a lot fence mending (not wall building!) to do, but this can be fixed.
7
My kids in college get their news from Twitter Moments. They have no idea the U.S. is the laughing stock of the world. I'm sure Trump's base doesn't have any idea. And the majority of the majority (!) of American's don't follow the news enough closely enough to understand.
Mr. Krugman's excellent, scary and ultimately annihilating point will be lost in the shuffle. Not with a bang but with a whimper.
48
@Jane I hope your kids make more than that of their opportunity to attend college. Isn't the point to open one's mind? Any fool, as we have seen, can pay attention to twits and their brainless tweets. If they're not awake by now, they're wasting their tuition and/or going into debt for no reason at all.
2
I don't disagree with the author. What I disagree is with the implicit message that if you elect a Democrat in 2020 things will get better.
Trump is the symptom, not the cause. He's a mark of decline, the inevitable descent of America into the madness of neo-nazifascism (WWIII).
15
The economy is always in better shape with a Democrat in the White House, as opposed to an actual neo-fascist Republican, which is the only kind.
1
So, VK, what is your solution to this Trump symptom? Re-elect him because symptoms don't matter? I prefer a good deTrumpgestant.
1
The rest of the world is smart enough to regard Trump as an anomaly and basically ignore this unless a future president decides to repeat it.
7
That depends on whether or not Trumpism becomes the new norm for the Republican Party -- and that sees likely.
Trump isn't the only one characterized by dishonesty and disrespect for the rule of law. So long as the current republicans are supported by the MAGA-hat authoritarian set, America's stability and reputation are at risk.
23
I don’t know. I think it’ll be hard to find anywhere another psychological wreck which is like Trump. Even in the GOP.
4
I travel widely and very much disagree. Lasting damage has been done
54
Trump not only made up a trade deficit with Canada (lied) when speaking with Justin Trudeau, but then afterwards bragged about doing it during a fund-raising speech in March 2018. Why anybody listens to a word he says about “trade” or anything else is beyond me.
150
Trump's bullying, cowardly tactics and mob boss tactics may work with his 'elite' hating base, but as farmers lose markets, the stock market loses patience, the House and Mueller investigations nip at his heals and foreign governments show they can subvert Trump's sloppily implemented tactics His boondoggle was bound to fail. Trump is out of his league and his arms too short to box with the world.
27
It's not all about winning or losing. It's about how you play the game. Hard to play ball if no one wants to shoot hoops with you.
2
Wow - China is a terrible trade partner and has hollowed out our industries - but the only President to try and do anything about that only demonstrates that the US is unreliable. That’s simply absurd. I would also take exception with the idea that the country has become more free-trade since Trump introduced the tariffs - that is a statement in need of support.
@SAL:
Trump is not only unreliable to China, he's unreliable to those in the US who have been suffering in the wake of his ignorance and unpredictability; examples that come to mind are soybean farmers, domestic manufacturers affected by steel tariffs, and the domestic solar industry (of which I am a part of).
7
@SAL, is it China that has hollowed out our industries or rather our industries that have sold out to China? Anything to shave costs and increase share price - even if it means shuttering manufacturing and investment here in the US. China, meanwhile has been steadily investing and advancing, whereas we have been cutting back on education, infrastructure and research investment.
18
@SAL He isn't the only POTUS do try to do something about China, he just blustered the loudest. And failed.
2
One of the very few good things to come out of the Trump administration (like starting the ball rolling on changing a system that can allow someone like Donald Trump to be elected president) was that he would do what no member of any party would do- end China's theft of intellectual property. Technology companies that are in the 3 trillion dollar market value? China wants them. It want's Facebook, Google, Apple, etc. to be Chinese run. How? By replacing them with versions of their own. It should be taken for granted that, by now, China has already hacked into every tech giant; every research lab, software company, etc. in the US. A couple of missteps more and the thought of a Chinese Google won't sound so crazy. Again, Trump fails at doing the only thing he's good at- being unhinged enough to the point the Chinese would believe him about the US not putting up with intellectual property theft.
3
At this point trump has almost no credibility. His word is useless because he lies with every breath. Who would trust him? All the bombast about "bad deals" from Iran to trade, etc. has fallen with a deafening thud when you look deeper at the real story. Don the con is conning less and less everyday as more republicans know they have been played and do not want to be complicit in his corruption when it hits the fan!
15
The point is for Trump to claim a “W” off a situation and problem that he largely created himself, via the tariff war he started, or at least to save face. It’s akin to this hypothetical:
- Trump pushes elderly person down
- Elderly person (eg US farmers) is injured and in need of urgent care
- Trump drives elderly person to the hospital
- Along the way, Trump stops at a local drug store and uses the company card (ie US taxpayers) to buy some painkillers, until they get to the hospital
- Trump drops off elderly person at hospital, turns over situation to professionals to treat and bring the elderly person back to normal.
- Trump declares he did a great thing and seeks praise.
- Those dumb enough not to question him or what happened give him praise.
7
I never stop laughing at the YMCA reference. We should never stop reminding the White House about it either. Who came up with that acronym? Better question: Which village person do you think Trump is? I'm going construction worker. He has been seen in hard hats and he has obviously taken too many hits to the head. Or is it too few? I'm not sure.
I think one important point to remember however is Trump IS achieving a policy objective. The tariffs we're never meant as a temporary thing. Trump wanted to hurt US-Chinese trade relations. In this, he succeeded. US companies are seriously considering remapping their supply chains. The problem of course is Trump is also greedy.
We can say with some certainty Trump's personal financial ties have impacted his decisions both in China and in Canada. Trump was trying to accomplish a policy objective at the expense of the American economy but became compromised when he saw dollars on the table for himself. I'm not sure you can call it a bait-and-switch though. Trump is the fish and he's all about the bait.
1
I hope Trump soon to come recession the Wallstreet said a few days ago is coming soon. Every Republican sing Taft has had a recession so I can't understand why they even have supporters. It is written in the history books and economic books about their failed policies . The supporters must have smaller brains because they keep voting for more abuse. Very sad
4
I don't hope it happens, but I'm starting to see the seeds of a recession. And I was one of those people who was pooh-poohing those saying there was a recession on the horizon. Now, I'm convinced... and pretty nervous.
3
I have to admit I am truly happy with NAFTA 2.0; in with the new boss, same as the old boss...
I am tired of reading the ignorance spewing from the WH and all 'Individual 1's abilities of 'dodging' reality and getting away with the gifts from the member of congressional seats.
Unless the DNC places before the voters one whom can take 198% of the vote, this country will be considered so toxic it will be off limits to even those of us "natives".
2
The undermining of the international system enables global kleptocrats like Putin and the euro-billionaires that are backing nationalist movements which in turn undermine international law enforcement and make money laundering, tax avoidance and the expropriation of ill-gotten gains much easier for the global elite.
Prior to Trump's meddling, the real estate lobby left gaping holes in congress' attempt to shut down money laundering post 9/11, making the US ideal for global money laundering via real estate transactions.
Bottom line is that although the corruption predates Trump, he is all in when it comes to Putin's worldview that puts global billionaire elites above international law.
2
Why do they call it “the Village People agreement”?
Its acronym looks like YMCA, the big Village People hit song.
@Phyllis Meagher
Because the acronym reminds people of "Y-M-C-A", the famous Village People song.
@Phyllis Meagher
I have a friend in the Marine Corps who definitely prefers the "YMCA" nickname. The actual initials are U.S.M.C.A., and he really hates the possible association with the United States Marine Corps.
We'll be lucky if it only ends with a whimper, and I don't feel lucky in the least.
Significant leading indicators are down in key areas like consumer spending and housing starts. Those are the two most painful areas for those Americans who've always been poor or on the edge of it, as well as the teens of millions of Americans whom the Great Recession left behind. It now also includes those who did okay, but would have trouble dealing with a $400 emergency. Each of those groups were hit in the Tax Scam bill and are now either not getting a refund from the IRS, or worse, owe.
With no government investment these last two years, no affordable housing construction with soaring rents, the removal of vulnerable Americans from welfare and health rolls, gig economy jobs an approaching recession will be a catastrophe.
Some companies have figured out how to work Trump and the Chinese, Apple is one. Others have absorbed the cost of rising tariffs, as Walmart has. Now that Trump is obviously in trouble, his adversaries can dig their heels.
While all this theater unfolds, we wait for Lady Justice to swoop in on Trump and his band of traitors.
2020, please hurry!
---
Things Trump Did While You Weren't Looking
https://www.rimaregas.com/2019/01/01/things-trump-did-while-you-werent-looking-2019/
27
We're already feeling it where I live.
My friend had to cancel her retirement plans because her housing market crumpled. The loss/reduction of SALT and mortgage interest deductions deflated the market in her area and she couldn't find a buyer for her house. That market was, until recently, absolutely booming.
My company, which has had about 6 straight years of growth (thanks Obama), is so quiet you could hear a pin drop. My department has been sitting here twiddling its thumbs for weeks.
I just had the misfortune, as the owner of a 500c, to find out that Fiat Chrysler has pulled all spending for the Fiat brand in the US. The dealership where I service my car now has a nearly 2 week wait for service, and no longer offers rentals or loaners. In fact, there are no Fiats at all in their lot. It is likely the brand will be pulled entirely. Why? With the "will he-won't he" of foreign car tariffs, selling here became a risk no long worth the trouble for a lower-cost brand. So I'm not sure where I'll be servicing my car next year.
Payless? Gone. Toys R Us? Gone. Gap and Victoria's Secret? Closing hundreds of stores, with Charlotte Russe rumored to be the next to fall. Tesla closing all its stores. Three restaurants I sometimes go to (and I don't eat out frequently) have closed in the past 3 months. And that's just the stuff I'm aware of. It feels like 2006 all over again.
This man has got to go. We are definitely on the brink of another recession, if not already in it.
10
@K
Don't forget the empty stores left over from the recession that never got rented out, the much smaller stock grocery stores keep, and the very spotty distribution at most stores. People aren't buying. They can't, even when it's stuff they need.
Hang in there...
4
Trump is all about the imagery, the performance, the presidency reduced to a mere reality show. For an audience that doesn't inform itself, doesn't pay attention to details -- namely, his loyal base -- he doesn't need to be tough but only appear to be. His swagger and his strut seem to work on 35% of the electorate or so, their concern for Canada and other allies negligible. We can hope that undecided voters do the right thing and vote for Democrats in 2020, and rescue the country from barbarism, but that remains to be seen.
26
Relax, Dr. Krugman. The world doesn't think that America is permanently untrustworthy. Just the current president. That president and his administration will be gone soon and Canada will still be our friend. China is still stealing American technology and China is still subsidizing goods flowing to American shores. Not one of the past three presidents has done anything about this. I give Trump credit for at least yelling about it. I wonder what the next president will do.
3
@Chris
Oh, he did more than yell. He damaged an entire industry. While steel jobs have been created, they're dwarfed by the steel-adjacent jobs lost. I myself lost a $15K project because the additional cost of the steel caused our quote to jump, and some of my vendors are having to add disclaimers because their customers are freaking out.
We cannot forget why Trump does anything. It's to make money and lots of it. His blunders regarding trade are of little interest to him as is most of the business of the presidency. He plays a game of president while trying to set himself up for personal profits. He never went a stone's throw away from his businesses and he intends to keep it that way. And as a true criminal, he is not afraid of being caught because his con man act works on far too many people. Trade wars may come and go but to Trump those are shadow boxing while making money for himself is all that matters. But he is and will destroy the good in our land because he simply does not care.
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I love the Village People trade deal monicker, but I’m still giving it to Pelosi on points for “The Trade Deal Formerly Known as NAFTA.”
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A trade war with a China is infinitely superior to a ammunition war over the South China Sea or nuclear war with North Korea.
Both just became at least ten times more likely because Trump is now a made man as a punk.
Be very afraid.
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Dollars and cents may matter but reputation may be even more important Mr. Trump
3
Whatever the outcome, it is better than the status quo.
USMCA is also better than NAFTA, even if the additional benefits to us are incremental.
Krugman should be happy that Trump is negotiating better agreements, however incrementally better. This is the guy who the day after Trump was elected predicted a global worldwide recession “with no end in sight.” Looks like we are doing great under Trump with unemployment under 4%.
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@Jay Lincoln
His opinion, and those of whom he quoted, were that it was not better.
And maybe it's looking great by you, but by me we're seeing an economic slowdown. Like I mentioned above, it's starting to feel like it did at the start of the Great Recession, with restaurants closing left and right, house values sinking, and the phones going quiet.
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@Jay Lincoln That's quite a mental contortionist act you are engaging in to declare victory for Dear Leader. This trade war was supposed to fix all kinds of problems and bring manufacturing jobs to the US, address IP theft by Chinese firms, and curb China's currency manipulation. Yet, by all reports, the pending agreement does none of the above. The trade war had plenty of negative consequences for US. To go through the nonsense and get some symbolic concessions is not a victory. It is a sham, a hustle, a con.
P.S. Coasting on economic recovery built up under Obama's presidency is also not a real victory.
8
As Mr. Krugman points out, the lasting damage such "trade belligerence" does is to our international reputation. Even if President Trump loses the election in 2020, many foreign nations will still wonder how reliable we are as partners in international agreements going forward.
If President Trump can claim any success in business at all (and that's doubtful), it's to branding and marketing the Trump name. His only real concern has always been his personal reputation. The substance of such trade agreements matters less than whether his base buys the snake oil he sells them . . . that America is "winning" again, and it's all because of him.
President Trump's "success" with China is the same as his six bankrupt businesses, his defunct and disgraced "university," the "new" NAFTA agreement, the border wall that Mexico built, the return of manufacturing to the United States, his nuclear disarmament agreement with North Korea, his 10% middle class tax cut, and on and on . . .
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China is an authoritarian ''government'' that can flaunt human rights, international norms, and currency manipulation. Its regime can chance course on a yuan to monopolize globally any sector it so wishes.
ON TOP of all of that, it has proxies throughout the world that keep the west at bay to achieve some sort of detente militarily. This drains resources from the west, and creates another bargaining chip for ANY trade negotiations.
Due to said flaunting of international norms, human rights and workers' rights, it can be the manufacturing hub to the entire world - because of lower overall costs. We then, in turn, ignore our local economies and jobs to not buy locally and instead buy imported goods from them. It just continues the cycle.
This is going to be the way that is pretty much locked in as is 5%+ GDP growth. This can also be achieved by ignoring pollution controls.
You simply cannot ''negotiate'' with such a regime, but each and every President/administration is going to try, and then fail.
We will cease to exist before any tangible deal is reached.
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@FunkyIrishman
“China is an authoritarian ''government'' that can flaunt human rights, international norms, and currency manipulation. Its regime can chance course on a yuan to monopolize globally any sector it so wishes.”
The country used to have an emperor, who could do what you say. Now it has a Communist party, which can do what you say. Your system has to compete with it, not whinge about how it is better in some ways.
“Due to said flaunting of international norms, human rights and workers' rights, it can be the manufacturing hub to the entire world - because of lower overall costs.” You gloss over the difference – at the moment, about 4 to 1, with a promise they will become rich. The Japanese people made the same bargain.
“We then, in turn, ignore our local economies and jobs to not buy locally and instead buy imported goods from them. It just continues the cycle.” For a long while, the US had the advantage of scale, so they could crush manufacturers in other countries. Turn about.
“This is going to be the way that is pretty much locked in as is 5%+ GDP growth.” Damn, how can they do that?
“This can also be achieved by ignoring pollution controls.” Their leadership isn’t stupid – the people get upset, the problem gets fixed.
“We will cease to exist before any tangible deal is reached.” No, you will become an also-ran. No shame in that.
1
NAFTA redo = nothing burger
N. Korea negotiations = nothing burger
China Trade negotiations = nothing burger
Actually, the end results of trumps' escapades are less than a nothing burger, more like a negative burger, if there is such a thing.
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The United States is worried about intellectual property?
That's funny. In the 1800's American publishers legally pirated the most famous works of Charles Dickens because the developing nation did not recognize international copyright.
What goes around, comes around.
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@SKK Giant corporations who subsist off our broken patent and copyright system are the ones who care; companies such as Microsoft, Disney and Pfizer.
We also launched our Industrial Revolution on the back of stolen textile mill designs from Britain long before Dickens.
10
Wow that’s a REALLY deep cut. Way to compare Apples (and Googles and Facebooks and Microsofts) to oranges.
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@DAS
And during the days of the British Empire, the British textile industry protected themselves from competition by the weavers of India who made incredibly fine muslins by cutting off the right hand of every weaver so that they not only couldn't weave but couldn't teach the art to younger people!
The smallness of everything Trump is getting clearer every day.
Ethics below molecular level, smarts at the earthworm stage, grace permanently parked in the basement, spine reduced to rhetoric.
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Trump’s residue of epic malfeasance has infected Congress, as his hideous stain devours our healthcare, public education, environment safeguards, and social justice.
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@nestor potkine , Earthworms are some of our better citizens, aerating the earth, breaking down rotting matter and feeding robins. Not so Trump.
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A semantic point -- America is not a cowardly bully; the current U.S. president is. Canada and other allies might be more wary in the future, and perhaps be a little less willing to take a U.S. administration solely at its word. Maybe a little more "trust, but verify." But it'll take more than Trump's imbecilic "leadership" to tear down decades of cooperation, international trade, and genuine friendship.
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@Neil
It's true that people generally have short memories and will happily forget this POTUS once he's out of office, but the deeper point made by Mr. Krugman is that there is no guarantee that another president just like him won't come along. It happened once, it can happen again. That is a lot harder to forget.
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@Neil
As you're Canadian (presumably), I appreciate your largesse in distinguishing America from our current, rotten President. Please know that such semantic distinctions matter greatly to many Americans.
Thanks!
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@Neoconservative Hack But when we make the Electoral College irrelevant we have a much better chance of NOT electing someone as bad a trump or Bush....Remember, trump did not win, (or Bush) he was selected by the electoral college. A majority of 3 MILLION voted for Clinton. Let's have a real democracy; one vote for one person...then if a trump happens you will know America is a lost cause!
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It's quite easy to understand and the other nations of the world have come to understand it.
The simple truth is that bullies are cowards with bravado. Slap them -- stop purchasing soy beans for example -- and they back down.
Trump has and will always back down and market it as victory. Tis the nature of the man.
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Dr. K., the only way to understand Clear & Present Danger 45*'s actions is as the sociopath which Maureen Dowd labeled him in these pages on Sunday:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/02/opinion/sunday/michael-cohen-donald-trump.html
keeping in mind that Merriam-Webster defines psychopath and sociopath as synonomous. If we remember that Agent Orange from KAOS 45* is a psychopath (dropping the softer sociopath) things are more understandable.
And, since everything else touched by RICO the Rolling Trumpster Fire 45* has always been dragged down, bankrupted, slimed, and drained like a vampire's victims, it is correct that the reputation of the U.S. has been degraded and damaged.
But remember, we're only a month past halfway in this Purgatory term, and the Dems have just now been able to exert their Constitutional oversight, with disinfecting sunlight.
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@R. Law
Please don't excuse DJT's behavior with psychological terms. These suggest less responsibility for his actions than terms such as corrupt, immoral, unethical, meanspirited, heartless, dishonest. Or maybe cheater, liar, swindler. (Ooh, this is fun!) My point is that this man, esp. given the privilege that this country has chosen for whatever reason to bestow upon him, chooses to dishonor his position. NO excuses!
3
@R. Law
Nothing will redeem this country. There is a huge subculture here that has no idea what this country is supposed to stand for, and they'll do whatever it takes to get their guys elected.
Trumpism is a generalized anti-vaxxer movement. Rule of law, democracy, honoring treaties, fulfilling promises, and general good faith were indispensable for prosperity in the post war years in the West. But a whole group of people who've never experienced privation now view these very ideals as obstructing hedonism.
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There's also the farmers hard hit by Chinese retaliatory tariffs on soybean and pork. Many are now are going through bankruptcy according to what I've read.
20
@wanderer
And one of them was quoted, I think in NYT, saying he had to make that sacrifice for the good of the country
3
If the reports are true, then it will be a typically Trumpian outcome. Trump creates a problem. After a lot of trouble for everybody else, he reaches a non-solution. Trump declares victory, his cultists cheer, and iPhones are still made in China. Manufacturing issues remain unresolved. IP issues remain unresolved. Currency manipulation remains unresolved. Disparate labor standards remain unresolved. All China will do is import the same things they imported before the trade war: agriculture and energy.
Wow. Bigly win.
602
@citybumpkin
Perception is everything.
21
@Andrew Zuckerman I can't get over the "speak loudly, and carry a small stick" line. If perception is everything, so is projection. Oh, to see American trade policy so unmanned.
15
Yes, citybumpkin, Mr. Krugman and all media must stop saying The Con Don is America.
He represents only the top 0.01% - not the vast majoriyt of us.
3
"Trade experts I know, when not referring to it as the Village People agreement, call it “Nafta 0.8”: fundamentally the same as Nafta, but a bit worse."
I totally disagree. Canada got a bad deal due to Trump's narcissistic demeanor and bullying strategies. The new USMCA agreement was a bad deal.
With friends like Trump, who needs enemies!
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@Majortrout
You're agreeing with the trade experts.
6
Hopefully by now, America’s business leadership have realized that there is a steep price to be paid for doing business with China and its totalitarian government.
Do they really want to sacrifice technological advantages and risk other retaliation from a government that ultimately prioritizes its own power over all else? Is cheap labor really worth it?
6
@Greg Wait a minute...are you trying to spin this defeat in Great Trade War To Punish China into a victory in The Great Trade War to Punish American Businesses?
4
Worth it? Of course! That silence you hear is the clamor of executives tripping over each other to bring their manufacturing back to the US.
Official US policy is that the form of government and the rights of citizens are not considerations when profits are at stake. The only exception is Cuba, which alone has a domestic diaspora that wants the Castro regime punished in perpetuity. Otherwise the almighty dollar rules, whether China or Saudi Arabia, as long as there’s no perceived military threat.
5
@Greg
When all you care about is short term profits that put money in your pocket, yeah, it's worth it.
1
I love Krugman. He's absolutely right about the outcome of this "trade war" with China. You have to wonder if the whole thing wasn't cooked up just to get favors from them, and not favors that benefit the country as a whole, either.
389
@Michael Fisher
No need to wonder.
A Malignant Narcissist (Psychopath) is always doing anything for their own benefit.
Trump is an extreme example, and he enjoys inflicting pain and chaos on others.
Enjoys it.
9
@Michael Fisher You need not wonder. Just look closely.
2
I think that Dr. Krugman missed a key point in the trade war hubris with China. The Bank of China rents three full floors in the Trump Tower building in NYC just a few floors below the big man's office. Those floors are sealed and no one knows what transpires there. About a week or so ago, there was a brief news item that the Bank of China (really synonymous with the Chinese government) was considering reducing its presence in the building. The next day, Mr. Trump said he would delay the further increase in tariffs that were coming up. And last week he sat down with his trade negotiator and the Chinese negotiator to talk about the tariffs.
Is it possible that the main drive here is personal greed on the part of President Trump? No, can't be. Shame on me for even thinking that.
1165
@Profbam
Move along, nothing to see here. Seriously, does anything happen in this Administration that doesn't reek of self-dealing and corruption?
As always, imagine the GOP reaction if Obama had owned an office building and rented large expensive space to China or Russia.
342
@Profbam
Most of Trump's cabinet pretty much sees their place in government through a narrow window of short term commercial interests....both the many that have resigned or otherwise been forced out in ethics scandals and those that are still "serving" today. Just following the boss's example!
84
@Profbam
Great catch! And I wonder whether the House ethics committee has noticed this 'coincidence'.
119
Keep telling it like it is, Dr. K. And be ready to clarify the inevitable spin that converts billions in losses and unwarranted "socialism" to the "best whatever".
113