The odds that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia have alway been improbable, because no collusion was required. Russia viewed Hillary Clinton as anti-Russian and would have backed any candidate who ran against her.
In its report to Congress on Russian meddling in the 2016 election, the U.S. Intelligence Community said “Putin most likely wanted to discredit Secretary Clinton because he has publicly blamed her since 2011 for inciting mass protests against his regime in late 2011 and early 2012, and because he holds a grudge for comments he almost certainly saw as disparaging him.”
Hillary compared Russian actions in Crimea to Nazi Germany’s subjugation of Czechoslovakia and Poland. In a 2014 speech she said, “The claims by President Putin and other Russians that they had to go into Crimea and maybe further into eastern Ukraine because they had to protect the Russian minorities, that is reminiscent of claims that were made back in the 1930s when Germany under the Nazis kept talking about how they had to protect German minorities in Poland and Czechoslovakia and elsewhere throughout Europe.”
Trump campaigned on promises to prevent a new Cold War. Had there been no furor over Russian meddling in the 2016 election, President Trump probably would have recognized the Russian annexation of Crimea
https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf
16
Trump is willing to insult anyone but refuses to insult Putin. Why? If you can come up with a reason other than “kompromat” I would love to hear it. Follow the money.
45
Running around like fools trying to collude is the same as collusion itself. Ineptness does not excuse the intent. That the shoe bomber could not blow up the plane does not make him any less the terrorist.
Besides it strikes me as extremely hypocritical that Trump enablers would believe Cohen when he tells the truth on what he knows about Russian collusion, but calls him a liar about everything else in Trump's bag of con man tricks.
39
The American voter needs to be informed about the details and facts of serious wrong doing by Trump before his presidency and during it. The American voters need to be aware that re-electing Trump will embolden him to follow thru on his whims as he is finding out the enormous powers the modern presidency has . Trump cannot lose the 2020 election since if he does he faces criminal prosecution so no doubt he will use every power at his disposal to win the election. If the American voter is willing to accept that Trump and his family have the right to profit from the presidency and that Trump has the right lie about what ever he wants then we will all bear the consequences of a corrupt erratic and ignorant president.
18
Dear Ross:
A fair if tepid summary of the evidence. The more difficult question for The Times is at what point does the paper pivot from its three-year fixation on the Trump collusion narrative? And when will it examine its own unwitting role in what looks like a Russian disinformation campaign?
When will The Times admit that the Steele dossier has been thoroughly discredited in almost every particular claim?
Why didn't The Times reveal that the primary source for the Trump collusion narrative, Fusion GPS, was employed by the Clinton campaign, using taxpayer deductible funds?
When will The Times investigate the role of senior Obama intel and Justice officials in misusing the dossier to feed the collusion narrative, defeat Trump, and when that failed, to delegitimize his presidency?
When will The Times tell us the identities of the sources feeding Steele this Russian disinformation?
When will The Times report on the apparent CIA and Clinton connections of Joseph Mifsud, Alexander Downer and others who approached Papdopoulis?
When will The Times report that the "dirt" shopped to Donald Trump Jr by a British DJ to induce the Trump Tower meeting -- which Adam Schiff trumpets as the best direct evidence of collusion -- was actually the product of Fusion GPS. See https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-dossier-firm-also-supplied-info-used-meeting-russians-trump-n819526.
Isn't this all closer to "collusion" than anything Trump is accused of?
8
And what about the obstruction of justice side of things and the firing of Comey? Why was Trump so worried about the investigation? Is that the act of a wannabe and a fool?
28
A whole column crafted in order to coin two new clever phrases; "l'affaire Russe" and "Muellerdam(m)erung."
The "Siberian Candidate" was coined by me in 2016, btw.
5
You may be right Mr Douthat, and time will tell. And conservatives will rejoice, as we know they will, that Mr. Trump is not an active collaborator with our enemy, but merely an amoral, science-denying, accused sexual abuser who lies as he breathes, and mongers hate and fear on a daily basis.
So how about some ink about the pathology of Trump supporters, who gleefully cheer on the disturbing qualities, language, and actions of a man like Trump, rather than your usual oblique and always non-committal critique of the most disgusting man to hold the office of President in America's history?
36
My wife has asked more than once: "Is he evil or just stupid?"
He can be both, is my usual answer.
And he is.
He has never in his life really had to answer for his crimes and misdemeanors and I'm sure that he thought that if he were president he could get away with even more crime without repercussions.
To this interested outside observer I think that Robert Mueller's probe is far from over.
Treason is a hard thing to prove. My hunch is that Mueller is out to prove it.
25
Trump apologists have an endless capacity to ignore the obvious. Douthat prefers to see only the bumbling ineptitude rather than the repeated and brazen criminal intent of Trump and his minions. This willful blindness allows him and other Republicans to believe they aren’t complicit in propping up the most corrupt administration in American history. Just stop. You’re still part of the problem as long as you construct equivocating arguments that Trump and his supporters can use for cover.
34
The evidence that we have all seen it’s obvious Trump has an inappropriate relationship with Putin. As an outsider I’m astounded at the number of Americans that have drank the orange kool aid. Yes i understand you hate the Democrats but you can also hate the republicans. The republicans are upset Cohen lies and yet when asked if the president lies they say no. They should hate themselves as much as Cohen with their logic.
26
Sir I think your comments would be more appreciated at CPAC than here on this page, though i could be wrong.
15
Michael Cohen is correct, as Trump said--- he could shoot some on Fifth Avenue & get away with it.--Unfortunately, the Mueller report won't satisfy anyone.--Proof has always been before our eyes. Steele Dossier doesn't matter. Unless those who support Trump personally observed Trump & Putin-"colluding"- it didn't happen. Bumbling idiots don't get a pass --for supposedly educated, grown adults running for president, who are to lead a nation. No passes in responsibility for director of your own campaign or a director of a corporation. The buck stops at the top. Nothing passes without Trump's knowledge & consent or lack of- as with Kushner's security clearance. "Russia if your listening" was a clear request for Russia's welcomed, approved & continued assistance with stolen email hacks by longtime adversary of the US government. Another US citizen would have been pulled off the podium by the FBI and CIA. The same for Trump's insinuated request that perhaps someone pro NRA may be inclined to assassinate/hurt Hillary Clinton - "let's see." No prior presidential candidate or prior to inauguration or those working with him ---held as many meetings with Russian figures, attempted to create back channels & held host to Russian Ambassadors in history. Why?- Because he is putting the US' first? He is a pathological liar. It is our adversaries he trusts before his own government. He can't be trusted. He is our threat. Where are our checks & balances? We are not protected!
11
...and if you do not get what you expect, will you finally be willing to drop the 'Trump won fair and square' noises, Ross?
The thee pillars of Trump's surprise win are still there. Foreign tampering, hush money pay-offs and a GOP dirty trick. Trump did not win a free and fair election. How could he? The nation did not hold one. Everybody thinks they helped Trump win...McConnell shirking his oath of office to put the SCOTUS nomination in the mix; Putin for having his intelligence service create an online claque to repair Trump's campaign after every time he set it on fire and hack DNC emails and strategy; the candidates pay-off to keep former sex partners out of the public eye; Jon Stewart's decision to leave The Daily Show...When the elections results could be flipped by as few as 6 voters per 1,000 in 3 states going the other, there are hundreds of roots to a diferent solution.
[BTW, why do honest reports, you among them, reduce the pee tape to an inference that Putin has tape of Donald and a prostitute and 'golden showers'. The kompromat is Trump being shown (and enjoying seeing) a tape of Russian prostitutes urinating on the mattress purported to be the one slept on by President Obama and the First Lady on a state trip to Moscow. I find it curious that reporters love to report it in a more tawdry 'you fill in the blanks' manner when the actual truth is far more repellant.]
10
Rollingstone’s expose, “Michael Cohen’s Ties to Russia, Crime, and Trump” (April 10,2018) asserts that Michael Cohen has known Felix Sater for 30 years. Sater assured Cohen that, “I will get Putin on this program and we will get Donald elected....I will get all of Putin’s team to buy in on this.”
Of the four big claims to which you refer in the Steele Dossier, only one hasn’t been proven and that would should be referred to as Urinegate. All the other claims have:
Russia behind stolen DNC emails and their release, sweet real estate deals, and well-developed conspiracy of cooperation with the Russians that influenced the 2016 election.
Short of finding the yellowed mattress, Mueller, Schiff, and the SDNY can make a compelling case for conspiracy against the USA with a foreign hostile power. Just because Cohen says he didn’t go to Prague doesn’t mean one of Trump’s mobsters didn’t go to Putin.
10
In its report on Russian meddling in the 2016 election, the U.S. Intelligence Community assessed with “high confidence” that Russia hacked DNC email and gave it to WikiLeaks. But in Annex B (Estimative Language) of the report, it warned that “High confidence in a judgment does not mean that the assessment is a fact are a certainty; such judgment might be wrong.”
The FBI never inspected DNC servers. It based its opinion on an analysis performed by a private cybersecurity firm that has a good reputation but has been proven wrong on some occasions.
Julian Assange has offered to provide proof that WikiLeaks did not get the DNC email from Russia or any other government entity in exchange for the same immunity the Washington Post gets when it published stolen documents. Special Counsel Robert Mueller should take Assange up on his offer.
https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf
4
Typical right wing nonsense. Douthat has no idea what Mueller or the SDNY knows about Trump, the Trump Org and the Trump family. This is just preying that Trump continues to rollback decency in America.
11
Agnostic? You're on your knees praying for this. From your lips to nobody's ears.
6
The dossier was a collection of reports from different sources without the benefit of analysis to apply other knowledge and assess. Much of what is in the dossier will likely turn out to be accurate, but undoubtedly some of the stories conveyed were unreliable, or changed by the source to disguise the real details of certain ops.
Trump and his merry gang may have conspired and certainly were willing to do so. When the FBI said "Russians may be contacting you, call us," Trump's team had already been in contact with Russians and continued to have such contacts but never mentioned it. Perhaps they thought they could get Russian help without sacrificing any control over their future lives and they were merely dolts and useful idiots for the Russians. Or perhaps the long Trump contacts with Russia are part of a longer-lived and more dangerous op than the writer thinks. Either way, corruption, dishonesty, self-interest, and not the good of the nation were evidently the modus operandi for Donald Trump and his team.
7
People need to open their eyes and watch Objectively to how the Mueller Investigation is operating.....
From the start, this Inquisition was given the charge to investigate "Russian influence on US elecitons".....it was NOT specifically charged to "run Trump out of office".....
But most of us, under the influence of our Media Outlets, who, lets be honest, have a business interest in supporting one set of Political Advertisers or another, allow the Media to simply put thoughts in our heads.
In the begining, we heard about two sleazy lobbyist types.....Tony Podesta and Paul Manafort.....both rumored to be engaging in shady operations involving "russians"......yet the Podesta fish was quickly tossed back into the Swamp, free to swim away.
Later, finally, somebody began to point at all the Hillary emails and destroyed "evidence".....this was quickly dismissed as unimportant....far more important to follow the "evidence" manufactured by Hillary operatives(Britsh Spies) that pointed to various "russian prostitutes' peeing on various "russian hotel beds".
Finally we get to the report that a "Russian Lawyer" approached some Trump official with evidence of Hillary's illegal activities....but the focus isnt on Hillary's illegal activities.....its on "russian lawyer".
People are so easy to manipulate, arent they?
4
"On the eve of Muellerdamerung..."
We can't know when it will be released, we can't know what will be in the report, and we certainly can't take the particular allegations of the Steele dossier to indicate the limit of its scope or impact.
We can however at least try to get our tacky German borrowing puns right. Try Muellerdämmerung. Or, for extra teutonic flair, Müllerdämmerung.
5
So Ross: you’re cool with Helsinki?
18
I hate it when Ross is right.
2
Ross hopes he is correct. He assumes we may accept normal rich white person criminality. After all, Trump would never have been exposed had he not won the presidency. He would have been able to continue the crime spree.
This opinion is not based on fact, it is a hope. A hope that the president is a foolish low grade criminal. Something that makes one rise to the top of the GOP.
7
"On the eve of Muellerdamerung..."
We can't know when it will be released, we can't know what will be in the report, and we certainly can't take the particular allegations of the Steele dossier to indicate the limit of its scope or impact.
We can however at least try to get our tacky German borrowing puns right. Try Muellerdämmerung. Or, for extra teutonic flair, Müllerdämmerung.
2
There is a fine line between “useful idiot” and active conspirator. Or, perhaps in this case, “willful idiot”.
Encouraging illegal behavior is an abominable action for a president or potential president of the US.
Whether these actions are impeachable is yet to be determined — although I would point out that ignorance of the law is no defense to a crime. And the fact that too many people seem willing to shrug off such unethical behavior is a disgrace. (And, yes, there is much unethical behavior evidenced by politicians but that does not excuse these acts.).
9
The Russiagate state of mind is declining faster than the oceans are rising.
1
Ross;
You're forgetting one of the cardinal rules of Trump. Things are always worse than they first appear, and then they get worse still.
6
Sure, Ross, and the 3 meetings Trump had alone with Putin - with literally no one else in the room save a Russian translator - were just to enjoy some toast and tea?
What would you write had President Obama had engaged in one tenth of this behavior? Your shocking moral relativism regarding Trump certainly diminishes your credibility.
13
Douthat, dutiful member of the professional Republican Commentariat, rides to his Party’s, and Trump’s, defense again using Party-approved nonsense. He dismisses Christopher Steele, a well-respected British intelligence agent who ran MI6’s Russia desk for years, as a naive dupe taken in by a Russian disinformation campaign. He ignores the proven fact that Trump, con man though he is, is himself easily conned. It isn’t hard to see how Putin could have strung Trump along for years by dangling the bright shiny object of a Trump excretion in Moscow in exchange for Trump’s fealty to him. In fact, Trump did make money on Kremlin-adjacent real estate deals by laundering Putin-connected oligarch/mafiosi money through sales of overpriced apartments in Trump Tower and other Trump properties.
Douthat, never one to shrink from dishonesty in service to his Party, is hardly agnostic. He wishes fervently to believe his Party’s story line, but if your only defense of your President has to be based on speculation, ignoring facts and repeating discredited Party lies, maybe your guy is guilty.
7
Oh, so it's all going to amount to very little? Russiagate based on the Clinton campaign financed Steele dossier was a tool to take down DT since he had the audacity to defeat HC in 2016. I would like to see all the character assassins and their complicit media hacks exposed and prosecuted the way of the Covington case. Same for the attempted vile Kavanaugh take down coterie, Senator Finestein. Hatred of DT has driven the left and most of the media to unthinkable crazy acts. Hold them all accountable.
1
So Trump didn’t actually conspire with the Russians, because he is a lazy bumbler. But he would have if he had just a bit more initiative, intelligence, and competence.
Gee, I feel so much better!
(Ross, there’s a reason attempted murder is a crime, too.)
8
The SDNY is going to get him, sooner rather than later. His financial malfeasance is obvious. I am awaiting the indictment, and optimistic that it will prove beyond a reasonable doubt that we have a felon in the WH.
3
Uh, conservatives continue their dog-whistle support of Trump. As for Mueller not having proof, based on Cohen’s testimony — it is beyond absurd to think Mueller is no better than, or has no more than, Cohen. It’s just more of what Republicans tell themselves as Trump drags them to the edge of the cliff.
3
Mueller’s report might not have enough evidence to pin anything on Trump. He speaks in code and does not email or text anyone. He’s smart enough to watch people go down around him with emails and text as he sits back and watches. He’s an evil genius.
I remember a curfuffle emerged after the President Carter admitted he had lusted in his heart. Ah, those were the days.
Our current office resident admits to no, not ever, any itty bitty indiscretion. Actually, I do believe he didn’t technically conspire with Russia. Putin is too smart and wily to trust plans with such a flawed intellect. He understood that he could control Trump like a drone, from afar, and powered by schmooze .
2
One thing we know for sure. The Mueller team has been very tight-lipped. It is fair to assume that they have a huge amount of information we have no clew about. So Mr. Douthat may be right in his prediction that Russiagate will amount to nothing, but in truth, no one outside of the Mueller team knows enough to predict the outcome. Mr. Douthat may be right in the same way as someone may have the right ticket to win the lottery.
2
Mueller may not be able to prove conspiracy but Trump and Putin hate Hilary, were out to mess with here campaign, expected to get away with it because did not expect to win, kept the Tower negotiations going, lift sanctions if he won...and he won and found himself in a trap....he has to lie because he's opened himself up to other charges of possible criminal activity. We have to hope that that Dems will nominate some decent with charisma to defeat this D Lister Fake.
2
Just as Trump's collaboration with Cohen was certainly of the "wink wink, nod nod" variety, isn't it eminently reasonable to conclude that his collaboration with the Russians is neither overt nor foolish and bumbling, the only 2 choices Douthat offers, but more of the mobster style?
I have yet to see anything in all of this that asks the question, "Why did Trump hire Manafort in the first place?"
Well,duh!
3
People who spend a great deal of time "proving" the existence of God or the Trinity clearly cannot prove the existence of a probable national traitor. May I humbly suggest the writer's rededication to common sense as a remedy?
3
The article's title is "The State of Russiagate" and then it just discusses the "Steele's dossier".
Mr Douthat may not responsible for the title but discussing Steele's report as "The state of the Russiagate" is deceptive & pretentious.
Steele report item 1 has been proven to be correct.
Item 2 in report ".Russian project to cultivate Trump, had been going on for many years, and included “sweetener real estate business deals” and regular flow of intelligence ".
Eric Trump confirmed it partially saying "Russians finance our golf investments". Trump as individual and his appointed prosecutors made dubious real estate deals and dropped money laundering charges. Cohen was not asked about credit & financing discussions for the Trump Tower Moscow, according to him, the deal failed because Russians could not prove ownership of the land (faint hearted...Russian could just burn down existing estates or kill owners, this was just an unimportant detail Russians planned to solve later on...).
The only bank that granted Trump loans in recency years was Deutsches Bank, involved in mega laundering schemes with Russia ...so there is enough evidence that Trump was involved with Russian financing and real estate deals.
Kushners secret channel to Russian ambassador had a purpose...
Item 3, conspiracy between Russians and Manford & Cohen. Cohen denies, lets wait what Mueller says about the Manford's Russian connection surfacing in the press.
Item 4, FSB does that, not needed in here..
Limiting your view of Trump’s guilt or incompetence or whatever it is to the Steele Dossier is like turning a blind eye to everything else that has happened before and during what has been a charade of a Presidency with new announcements of fraud, incompetence and outright lying every day. Thank goodness the Democratic Party is fulfilling its obligation to the Constitution and the voters that elected its representatives, that is, to keep our way of Government safe from foreign powers that would dismantle it and anyone who serves as their helpers.
3
I am not concerned if Russiagate does not produce indictments on Trump. There will be plenty when the courts in NY finish their work.
2
Yes Ross!
Given everything we know for certain about phony baloney Trump and his sleazy henchman it does seem very probable that they were at best dabbling in a mediocre game of checkers while the Russians were aggressively engaged in high stakes three dimensional chess.
Muller’s report will most likely be neutral on any outright conspiracy with Russian operatives and long on myriad domestic financial misdeeds that will become a treasure trove of indictable violations for the independent factions of DOJ to prosecute.
No certain case for impeachment seems at all likely.
1
‘... Trump and his circle weren’t collaborateurs, but fools and wannabes, who might have been willing to play games with spies and hackers, but who mostly just bumbled around haplessly on the sidelines.”
The problem is that many of these people were not “on the sidelines” but were “bumbling around haplessly” pretty much in plain sight on center field and the GOP congress could care less.
1
Ross you are spot on. The Mueller report will be the nothing burger you suspect and the left will go wild, as you can tell from some of the comments to your essay. 2 years and no evidence of Russian collusion. That should be the end of it. But no, the left disagrees with Trump and the southern district of NY will pursue all avenues to find something to prosecute him or his family. They will attempt to harass the man out of office, a soft coup, like Comey and McCabe attempted. Those on the left, breath deeply, do you want a country where alleged crimes are used to harass people out of office? This is what 3rd world countries do. I read these statements that Trump laundered money for the Russians, engaged in tax fraud. He has been doing business for 40 years in NYC and had a very high profile, and somehow he managed to pull off criminal activities and was never investigated, or indicted? Really. You must have some very special inside knowledge to accuse the president of these alleged crimes.The left has engaged in a ridiculous witch hunt for 2 years and promises more. Please stop. Our country’s economy is thriving, the president has made great strides in normalizing our trade deals, and signed a criminal reform bill that is a landmark achievement. Stop your Trump derangement syndrome. Make your case for your political viewpoint and win at the polls, not in the courts pursuing nonsense.
1
Anyone with the least bit of objectivity can only come to one conclusion: Donald Trump is so obviously guilty of collusion with Russia, that only his most frenzied supplicants will believe otherwise.
5
I don't know why anyone would expect every word of the dossier to be true. These were findings of a former spy who probably relied on rumor as well as verified information. That's what an investigation does. Those who claimed the dossier was the reason for judges granting the FISA warrant to investigate Carter Page were trying to cover up his connections to Trump. Then Trump's accusations that his campaign was spied upon by Obama came as they sought another distraction. Do I expect a bombastic conclusion to the Mueller probe? No. But it is far more interesting that Mueller's investigation led to the SDNY prosecutor's probe into Trump financial misdeeds. His continued connection to his business interests such as Trump Hotel in DC and golf clubs all over the world are astounding. That would never have been allowed in past administrations. So my conclusion, no matter what Mueller concludes, Trump is a corrupt con man, liar, and manipulator.
5
Christopher Steele is only important to lovers of Trump. Steele is irrelevant to everyone else, and will remain so irrespective of what happens to Trump.
So, as usual, Ross Douthat is barking up the wrong tree. All that matters is what crimes and treason, that Donald, his cronies, fellow thieves, family and Russian handlers have done, are doing and will be doing.
2
When Trump is gone, his Christians will still be around making more trouble. What do these Christians do besides make trouble? They make war, they stuff our jails, the destroy the environment without a care, they genuflect to the wealthy and beat up on the poor. They proliferate weapons like in no other country. And then they holler about murderous mothers and the "tragedy" of a secular government.
4
Heard a funny I have to share.
They were talking about Trump/Kim meeting and this one guy was asked are we going to be able to pick up the pieces after this failed meeting and he said I’m afraid trump will eat the pieces lol
There is something comical about assertions that Russian meddling in the 2016 election elected Donald Trump or represented an “attack on Democracy.” All countries that perceive they are affected by U.S. foreign policy and trade agreements—which is to say most countries—meddle in U.S. elections.
Hacking computers is illegal, but if Russia is guilty as charged of hacking Democratic National Committee emails and giving them to WikiLeaks, it is guilty of revealing the DNC was stacking the deck against Bernie Sanders to ensure Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic Party nomination. The revelation forced the resignation of DNC co-chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz and led to the disclosure by her replacement the DNC had signed a secret agreement with Hillary that gave the Clinton campaign control of DNC expenditures. If the New York Times had broken the story about dirty dealing within the DNC, it might have won the Pulitzer Prize.
A Russian oligarch violated U.S. election laws by ordering his employee to purchase Facebook ads that disparaged Hillary Clinton and directing them to conduct a social media campaign aimed at influencing the 201t6 election, but the international community scoffs at the notion citizens of other countries are bound by U.S. election laws that prohibit them from purchasing Facebook ads or tweeting political opinions.
2
Just another disingenuous attempt at deflection by Ross. Surely he knows that Trump's crimes go well beyond any need for verification by the Steele dossier, albeit Trump's Fox-news- watching ill-informed base may not. Ross is no more "agnostic" on Trump than he is on religion.
6
When it comes to Trump and the Republican Party, Ross Douthat is not an "agnostic." For him to make that claim destroys any credibility he hoped to have. Throughout Trump's administration's Ross Douthat has been a Trump supporter and apologist. I won't go so far as to claim that he has repeatedly lied, or at least seriously distorted the truth, but that claim could credibly be made. Beware of far right commentators when suddenly sound like they are in the center.
5
Cohen isn't telling the truth about Trump's involvement with Russia. It isn't in Cohen's best interests to come forward with this information. Cohen has more to lose by telling, than he has to gain by telling about Russia.
Why? Cohen's father-in-law? Cohen's wife is Ukrainian, maybe there is a connection.
Finally, the hooker tape is not the kompromat that Russia has on Trump. Trump doesn't care about such a tape, that would not be kompromat to him, it is something else, undoubtedly involving financing.
1
I doubt if Russiagate will ensnare Trump. Only his tax evasion and money laundering may finally catch up with him. And that will take NY prosecutors, not Mueller’s work, although he has provided them a lot of meat.
Ross, I think you'd be astonished at how many men are in prison on the basis of purely circumstantial evidence.
Based on the many articles published in this paper over the years - in addition to articles published elsewhere - the circumstantial evidence pointing directly at Trump constitutes a huge, stinking pile that would send any man without the protection of the presidency directly to prison.
Fingers point to Trump from every direction. Obstruction of justice. Abuse of power. Witness tampering. But above all, the most lethal finger pointing at Trump is one of his own. He behaves in all respects as a guilty man. He announces his guilt out of his own mouth. Which of those fingers will pierce the veil behind which he hides remains to be seen, but it will happen.
3
The major reason I don't believe Mueller will provide any seriously damaging material is that Trump isn't competent enough to have actively cooperated with the Russians.
1
There are some experts who say the hacking of the DNC emails was not done by Russia, in that the time of download was way to fast to have been thousands of miles away and was more likely a download to a local drive in the computer (thumb drive, etc.). So there are holes in many of these theories.
Yes, Wiki did publically announce it was about to leak the stolen emails several days before they were. So Stone telling Trump he had special knowledge this was about to happen is meaningless nonsense. And as you also say, if Cohen is speaking a "truth" of what heard heard Trump say, it is a perfectly logical statement from Trump in the sense of "no collusion."
The "Steele Dossier" has been overplayed by the Republicans. The tipping point for the FBI investigation into Russian involvement with the Trump campaign was provided by the Australian Ambassador to the UK regarding George Papadopoulos. The FBI initiative to investigate the President came from Andrew McCabe after James Comey was fired, and presumably, Trump was caught on an open mic complaining about the Comey affair to Lavrov. This brought on Robert Mueller whose wide-latitude may lead to investigations into all things Trump-World. Eventually Trump will be impeached. Removed from office? Voluntarily depart after losing an election...? who knows.
4
It will be interesting to see how many people's heads explode when Mueller finds no evidence of collusion.
You forget that Cohen was never part of the true inner circle of Trumpdom. He wouldn't have been aware of collusion or even money laundering. (Remember, he said Don Jr. whispered about the meeting when Cohen was present.).
My vote--Trump and the Russians had a long-standing money laundering relationship. They started the election influence more to be against Hillary than for Trump. Trump and his people did collude/conspire about at least the timing of the releases. (Remember, Don Jr. did that explicitly in his email back about that meeting. When he said he'd love what they were offering and said "especially later in the summer". That is collusion right there)
And with Mueller having set the precedent that hiding things from the government is conspiracy against the US, some people within the Trump org. will be indicted for conspiracy.
2
First of all, Steele himself has always said the possible scenarios in the dossier need to be properly investigated by the IC (which is why, if you recall, he brought it to the FBI).
Secondly, as Mr. Douthat has rightfully pointed out, it is Republican legislators who constantly refer to the dossier in faux red-faced sputtering outrage. There are very few serious observers who take the dossier as "gospel" or think the Trump/Russia connection is a story of a brilliant years long super spy operation. The scenario that seems to be emerging is close to what Douthat alleges: a bumbling, corrupt bunch of stooges hoping to get a big "pay day" being pathetically manipulated by the Russian Operation.
One vital characteristic of Trump and his toadies is overlooked by Mr. Douthat: they put their own interests before anything else. This is why they could have (at the very least) been played by Russia or (at the very worst) played along with them.
Proving conspiracy (even bumbling fools can conspire) was always going to be a super high bar. Hopefully, we will at least be able to absorb and act upon the national security aspect of Muellers' findings; protecting America's elections should be the HIGHEST PRIORITY.
The Steele Dossier is only one piece of a fact pattern that is pretty overwhelming at this point. It's clear, AT THE VERY LEAST, that Trump is vulnerable to financial pressure. This man still owes $300,000,000 to Deutsche Bank! That alone should make our heads spin.
4
This is why congressional investigations are key. Mueller's mandate is finite and doesn't include all the other reasons DT is eligible for impeachment. In the universe of possible outcomes of the special council's investigation, the "bumbling bystanders" scenario is one. And if is THE one, there will be plenty of insufferable crowing and I told you so's.
And let's not forget SDNY. After a lifetime of skirting the law, Trump and Company are now in the glow of a glaring spotlight. Should have stayed in his own (criminal) lane and he could have died a billionaire wannabe instead of a bumbling "businessman" who will be hounded for the rest of his life. And by extension the lives of his children.
3
So what if this whole investigation was based on the Steele dossier. Weren't we all told after 911, if we see something say something. Steele was first hired by a repub primary challenger and when he or she dropped out then was hired by the Clinton campaign. He collected raw intelligence which he soon saw was going much further than your usual dark politics and forwarded it to the FBI. And don't forget Trump's initial reaction that he and no one else in his campaign had anything to do with the Russians. How does that denial look today, Steele dossier or not?
3
So glad Douthat thinks it’s ok for the president to have been willing but too incompetent to engage in a conspiracy with Putin. So glad he thinks the knowing acceptance of help from the Russians without a peep to the FBI about their DIRECT overtures is kosher.
Nothing to see here, folks.
You think he’d have the same opinion about a Democrat revealed to have engaged in similar conduct? If so, I have a beautiful bridge to sell you.
3
Mr. Douthat may be right with his prediction. But, I fear that the main reason is not that crimes were not committed by Trump, but that Barr is now the AG. The real "deep state" likes Barr's "the president is king" chops. Who wanted Barr in place? Answer: Old school types from the Dick Cheney era. They also don't mind Donald Trump in power. Maybe Hannity was right about one thing -- there is a deep state, just one that is fueled and funded by the right-wing. And Barr is their cleaner.
Trumps coziness with Putin and it's connection to a business opportunity in Moscow is pretty hard to ignore. That Russia did interfere with the 2016 election is well beyond the rumor stage. Mueller's report may not reveal a smoking gun but it will produce cartridges, cigarette butts, and other evidence worthy of Netflix.
1
Or, Cohen is taking a bullet for Trump because Trump thinks that only a Russia connection will thwart his reelection plans and as long as he is President he won't be indicted. Maybe that's the deal he has with his Faustian brethren, the establishment Republicans. All is well as long there is no collusion and Trump continues deregulating pollution controls, defunding the federal government, and packing the federal judiciary with Republican apparatchiks.
And BTW, being "agnostic" about Trump and the Republican party is like being agnostic about political corruption - immoral.
3
Mr. Douthat claims, “... the most likely l’affaire Russe endgame may be a special prosecutor’s report...which implicitly exonerates him [Trump] of conspiring with the Russians, and makes a lot of Mueller watchers extremely unhappy....On the eve of Muellerdamerung, that’s what this agnostic very cautiously expects
Mr. Douthat’s prediction is neither confirmed or refuted by current empirical facts . His “expectation” is only an unsupported hypothesis. His text is unconfirmed conjecture, and wishful thinking based on his boundless meditation on what the end game will be. His fanciful speulations about the future end with the disclaimer that he remains an agnostic.
In plain English, agnostics do not claim they can know the truth of an hypothesis. Therefore, they suspend all judgement about the truth until evidence either refutes or confirms it.
Belief without factual evidence is the domain of Metaphysics or Religious Faith. Terrulian , a very early defender of the Christian faith ,wrote,“I believe because it is impossible”. Voltaire changed one word of his quote and created the more powerful satirical form: I believe because it is absurd” .
Either way believing impossible hypotheses about the real empirical world is absurd.
Mr. Douthat would do well not to confuse his agnosticism with the cautious” faith of a true believer, that future evidence in the Mueller report will exonerate Mr. Trump.
Why look at the Steele dossier instead of the facts. 1. Russian hacking did occur 2. Putin and a group of Russian operatives were behind it (Indictments should be tried in absentia just to show the proof) 3. Flynn lying about Russia convicted, Popodolos lying about Russia convicted, Don jr and Trump lying about the Trump Tower Russian meeting 4. Manifort meeting with top Russians and after convictions lying about meetings with Russians. zPutin eve stayed he wanted Trump to win, remember Helsinki. All from a campaign if you believe Trump, at least what he said two years ago, no one on his campaign even knows or met any Russians. If Trump was not president, who has fired everyone looking into him and having his own TV network pumping nonsense to the jury, he be in jail by now.
4
Why so many lies about Russia from the Trump team? Folks risked (and received!) long prison sentences to avoid telling the truth about Russia.
I think that if the contacts were innocuous or simply handled with incompetence, then the lying would have stopped long ago.
Moreover, the GOP’s tolerance for this behavior raises a lot of red flags. Follow the money.
4
I've always thought Trump is just not smart enough to collude with the Russians. The man is incapable of the focus and planning skills that collusion would require. That said, if anyone approached him with an illegal or even treasonous proposition that would benefit him, he absolutely would go along, or in this specific charge, let it go on without alerting the F.B.I. Mueller's report will probably disappoint those who want to see a Trump initiated scheme, and maybe only reveal that he was aware of activities being done on his behalf.
Alternatively, the SDNY will probably over deliver on the Trump family crimes.
1
Next week Ross will explain how “Origin of the Species” fails miserably to explain mitochondrial genetics
3
Is someone "willing to play games with spies and hackers" guilty of crimes? I would have thought so. Why does Mr. Douthat think that exonerates Trump and his team?
Every now and then I'll read a story about, say, a would-be bank robber who is so comically ineffective that he never lays his hands on a single cent but is apprehended immediately.
He still goes to prison.
4
The comments here have for the most part the coherency of most conspiracy theories -- none. Trump-Russian collusion is a belief system not based on facts but the wishful thinking of anti-Trumpers, most being still in stunned disbelief re the 2016 election results and hoping to find some way to over turn the results. So let's review the facts:
-- The FBI started investigating Trump-Russia collusion sometime in 2016. We don't know the exact date or the exact reason why (if you believe their official story, I've got a bridge you might want) but we do know the reasons given are pretty flimsy.
-- James Comey let HRC off the hook re her handling of government documents, possibly at the direction of the Obama admin.
-- The FBI obtained FISA warrants in order to spy on Trump's advisors based on questionable documentation.
-- Obama ignored the possibility of Russian meddling until HRC lost
-- He then ordered political appointees at our intel agencies to analyze what happened and surprisingly, they produced a report in a matter of weeks blaming Russia for hacking the DNC etc in order to help elect Trump.
-- Trump fired Comey for cause and the FBI retaliated by opening a counter-intel investigation into Trump because he might be a Russian asset. Again, no evidence.
-- The FBI entrapped Flynn & Papadopoulos
-- No indictments by Mueller are about collusion, no evidence has been produced.
-- No quid pro quos have occurred.
Yet there must have been collusion?
1
To base an assessment on the Steele dossier is Republican boilerplate appearing as honest analysis. Let’s just see what Mueller has to say and make sure what he has to say is made public.
1
Robert Mueller is a first class patriot with a first class brain and a first class team of prosecutors and investigators. I doubt that the indictments to date, the indictments yet to come, nor any report or recommendation that Mr. Mueller will produce for the Justice Department depend on the Steele dossier.
10
Suppose Richard Nixon had said during the 1972 campaign: "I think McCarthy needs to be locked up, but I need documents. Wouldn't it be surprising if somehow someone got them? Is anybody listening?"
As it turned out, plumbers on his payroll did it without direct instruction from Nixon. But Nixon never said any such thing. Why? Because to do so would be to solicit crimes: breaking and entering and theft.
During the 2016 campaign, Trump did exactly that "Are you listening Russia?" He not only solicited hacking and theft (both crimes), he solicited a foreign government to do so. And they and others in league with them did so.
Trump solicited foreign interference in a US Presidential election.
Now Douthat the Pious would have us think that he didn't know what he was doing.
Sure. And those who yell fire in a crowded theater are only exercising the right to free speech.
11
@M. Johnson
Tump was obviously being sarcastic. Besides, he was talking about the "missing" 30,000 emails that Hillary's server technician had "accidentally" deleted from her private home server, which had been subpoenaed. He wasn't talking about the hacked DNC emails that WikiLeaks was about to release.
I
1
In light of the tidbit, revealed in one of Mueller's other filings, that Cohen's cell phone had briefly been activated in a suburb of Prague during the campaign, It was puzzling to me that Cohen repeated his claim that he hadn't been to Prague anywhere near the time frame in question. Is he still lying? Is he parsing the difference between "suburb of Prague" and Prague proper? Is Mueller just wrong?
Generally speaking, we are our cell phones do not take separate vacations.
3
Hey Ross, the investigation isn't about the "Steele dossier" and whether it put forth any verifiable facts. Nobody has mentioned the dossier for months. The investigation is about what Trump and his minions might have done that may be criminal. Incidentally it might point to actions that could be impeachable, which the House of Representatives would act upon. Don't try to make this about whether the Steele dossier was right about anything. Let's just see what the Mueller report says. You could help by using your press pulpit to demand its full release to the public.
15
So what the damning evidence against Trump and his campaign amounts to is that they had a welcoming attitude toward, would have welcomed the release or possession of information embarrassing, politically damaging to his political opponent Hillary? While during the same election campaign the supporters of Hillary were doing "opposition research" against Trump - also trying to find dirt on him? Strange that the NY Times editors and most of the major media seem to think when the Left/democratic party does something its normal, legal, moral, politics as usual. But when the republicans do the same thing, its evil, illegal, treason, racist, anti Semitic ... . However, perhaps this can be explained by the violation of logic and justice, the moral horror and hypocrisy of the Left and most Zionist organizations conveniently "forgetting" the "Second Holocaust" killing of 6 million Jews that their ideological origins the Stalinist Marxists did in Europe, who also rigged the death of half of the 40 million Russians killed in WWII, AND who in China caused the death of as many as 100 million. While at the same time they have for 3/4's of a century blamed everyone else in the world (in addition to the Germans) for the 6 million Jews that the Nazis murdered. Seems that in the minds of the media pundits, NY Times editors, academic Left and our democratic party anything they do to win, no matter how bloody or criminal is moral and legal, is justified because they have what - good intentions?
1
Here is where I disagree with the author's conclusions.
1) "But if the dossier’s claim of a years-long Trump-Kremlin entanglement and its claim of Cohen’s direct involvement are both looking implausible or false, then its claims about a sustained Manafort-managed collaboration should be treated extremely skeptically as well."
Really? I don't think the implausibility of Cohen's direct involvement means we should be skeptical about Manafort's role. The two are not connect in a direct, logical way, unless you are a wishful thinker.
2) Why did Trump continuously refuse to be interviewed in person by the Mueller's team? Is it because he is a pathological liar unable to tell the truth or is it because he does not want the truth to come out?
3) Cohen did say that Don Jr. informed his father of what Cohen understands was the June 2016 meeting with Russians in advance of the meeting.
4) Does ignorance about laws exonerate the perpetrator from criminal responsibility? And even if we assume that Trump & Co did not know that collaboration with Russia was illegal, then why did they continuously lie about various aspects of it (like the Trump tower deal in Moscow) during and after the campaign?
8
We have no idea what is in the Mueller report right now, nor whether or not more indictments will result from it. Impeachment of Trump seems unlikely because the Republican majority Senate would likely oppose it, unless something so egregious is uncovered even they could not oppose it. The State of New York might find a financially related offense to indict Trump, but the indictment would perhaps be sealed until Trump is out of office. Manafort holds the key to collusion with Russia by those in the Trump campaign, including Trump, and he isn't cooperating. Which brings us to 2020. Two things strike me. If Trump is removed from office before the election Pence would fill the void. IMHO Pence, because he appears "normal" in contrast to Trump would be more difficult to defeat. Perhaps the best thing to do is "stay the course", still investigate of course and drag it out, and vote Trump and Pence to the trash heap of history.
5
If a friend gives you a locked suitcase to drive from California to Texas, and the police discover that it is filled with 30 pounds of cannabis, you will go to jail in Texas.
It does not matter if a person is duped into doing a criminal act.
Trump and his associates may have unwittingly been fooled to helping Putin achieve his goals. They committed criminal acts.
6
Wow, thanks for adding nothing new into the constant speculation as what Mueller might say. Douthat's conclusions are based on an incomplete set of facts to support his position, like the sudden change of the GOP platform brought about by pressure from the Trump team and Trump's actions themselves regarding the EU and destabilization of NATO and his constant belief and support for dictators over the findings of our own intelligence agencies. The fact is, if one was writing a piece of fiction about how a Russian asset perfectly instituted a plan to carry out the long term geopolitical desire of both the former Soviet Union and the Russian Federation of destabilizing and splitting America from its European allies. So no one knows what Mueller's report will say about the counter-intelligence aspects of the investigation. So why not just wait for the report? Next time write something that accurately reflects all the facts, not just the exculpatory evidence.
13
And yet Cohen testified behind closed doors the following day, and according to at least one Congressman stunned the committee. Douhat’s conclusions are premature and the truth is that he knows no more than anyone else. I would be happy to make an easy living prattling on.
13
Cohen has now testified that Trump was aware of, and welcomed, the planned Wikileaks dump of DNC emails. In other words, he was aware that a criminal actor (the Russians) had hacked into the DNC server, and that Wikileaks was preparing to publicize the hacked materials. If this is the case, it certainly makes Trump an accessory to one or more crimes, and also establishes collusion with the Russian effort to tamper with the US election.
Moreover, I'm not sure why it's relevant whether Trump's canoodling with Russian began in 2016, 2006, 1996, or earlier. We now know that in summer 2016, he was negotiating with the Russian government for the Trump Tower Moscow deal, and at the same time--and surely not coincidentally--he demanded the RNC water down the language in its platform condemning Russian aggression against Ukraine. We don't need an audio recording or email correspondence to connect the dots. There's a clear quid pro quo, with Trump receiving something of value in exchange for doing Russia's bidding.
23
@Grouch No, Trump was not just aware that the Wikileaks would dump the emails, and glad was going to happen, as all Trump supporters who looked at the Tweeter feed of Wikileaks were. The rest was not corroborated and hence lacked from the indictment of Stone and Cohen. Stop blurring proven fact with wishful thinking!!! This is why HRC lost in 2016.
If there was no active collaboration between Trump and the Russians -- no quid pro quo --how do you explain the extraordinary demand by the Trump campaign at the Republican National Convention that a GOP platform plank advocating offensive weapons for the Ukrainians fighting Putin's invasion be softened to remove support for the weapons? There is no innocent explanation for this. First of all, it was something Putin really feared since providing the Ukrainians with state-of-the-art anti-tank missiles (shoulder-fired Javelins) and over the horizon targeting radar would have made a significant impact on the war in the Ukrainians' favor. Secondly, it was an issue with absolutely no domestic political traction since most Americans can't distinguish Ukraine from a bowl of borsht. Third, the push to soften the plank came solely from the Trump camp and ran directly counter to traditional Republican anti-Soviet (now slightly transmogrified to anti-Russian) sentiment. Fourth, the Trump operatives and Trump lied about it -- a sure sign they knew this activity evidenced wider cooperation between the campaign and Russian intelligence.
17
@Barry Schreibman -- "how do you explain the extraordinary demand by the Trump campaign at the Republican National Convention that a GOP platform plank advocating offensive weapons for the Ukrainians fighting Putin's invasion be softened to remove support for the weapons? "
It was a really bad idea. Many here thought so, not just Trump.
Everyone who writes about investigations or hearings re Donald Trump should mention that Christopher Steel was first hired to investigate Trump's Russia ties by the conservative Free Beacon for the purpose of defeating Trump in the GOP primary.
Trump and Republicans keep parroting the false claim that the Democrats first hired Christopher Steel and that his dossier was the "basis" of the special counsel investigation. In reality, it was Republicans who first hired Steel and the dossier was one small component of the evidence presented to the FISA court.
Trump and protectors hammer the lie about the dossier's origins nearly every day. There must be push back with facts.
21
Just a reminder about Prague: Cohen was visiting his son in Italy just before the time he was supposedly in Prague, he could have taken that flight to Prague (airport in the area) either in July or August.
Cohen could fly directly from Italy to the Prague airport, no passport stamp needed for that trip. His meeting could have been held on the plane, hence, he never "stepped foot" in Prague, he did not leave the plane, he did not check into a hotel. He simply handed over a suitcase of cash to his contact person, then flew right back to Italy. He has never been in Prague, he has never been in the Czech Republic. He sat in the plane seat the whole time. His feet never touched the ground. His cell phone was pinging around for a bit, until he turned it off.
Someone taught him the skill of lying.
3
@NotKidding Interesting point. Cohen at first tried to use his passport to prove he hadn't been to Prague but, as you point out, if he was already in the Schengen Area his passport would not get stamped upon arrival in Prague.
This is the first I've heard of his visit to Italy. Is that really confirmed?
Leaves the question of why he would still be lying to protect Trump. He didn't enter into an official cooperation agreement. It seemed that was because he wanted to keep some of his NYC crimes concealed.
Was he concealing Russia stuff? Why would he?
7
Given the characters of ht e people involved from Trump to his sons, to Kushner, to Manafort, to Stone, to Cohen, etc., I have maintained from the beginning that the entire affair is the consequence of the venality, corruption and general financial greed of all of them. They were all on the make and were willing to deal with anyone to get it. I suspect that Trump knew all along about Russian participation and I suspect that his financial interest and his total lack of morality blinded him to any possible missteps or crimes, after all he has been sailing close to wind his entire life, and since ha has never been caught, he thought that this time, too, he would get what he wanted. Actually, he got more than he actually wanted, but, interesting enough, it may lead to his ruin.
11
Knowledge, as in genuinely knowing, firsthand, whether something occurred, is invaluable, especially when such can affect the existence any entity.
So, what we have today, and what Mueller has, is more than likely no greater than a small hill of beans, in terms of its effect on Trump, his Republican partners, and the corporations who have prostituted themselves, in service to this corrupt-to-its-core Republican administration; and, just so we are clear on how far afield the corruption is spread, know this, there are several Democrats in the House and Senate, and in other government branches, who colluded with this corporate owned government, and still remain closely but covertly aligned with the goals both Republicans and Democrats share, such being the continued control of the nation's wealth, and the on-going relentless effort to disenfranchise the masses, keep them servile, and in near economic slavery and penury.
This is the United Corporate Owned States of America, wholly predatory, bereft of empathy, unknowing that it should be any other way, served by clones of itself, walking around pretending to be human, periodically increasing the size of the portions of stale breadcrumbs they dole out, in their unbelievably successful effort at keeping the people unaware of who and what they are, and what they do.
If George Orwell was alive today, he would be speechless at how the masses have so willingly allowed themselves to be subjugated.
5
@Mel Farrell Hey Mr. Nader! Thanks for sharing. The people of Iraq especially want to thank you.
I agree with Mr Douthat about the collusion. Everything I’ve read has made it my think that the Russians were trying (and succeeding) to influence the election. But I have not encountered any information that makes me think Trump was working with the Russians.
That does not, in any way, suggest that there is no kompromat. Nor does it suggest that Trump has not acted to obstruct justice.
2
In his testimony, Mr. Cohen denied being in Prague or in the Czech Republic. The logical follow-up questions were not asked, at least in public testimony. Did Mr. Cohen meet with anyone in Europe or in the US he knew had ties to pro-Russian interests or who were known to be pro-Putin? Etc. etc. Let’s not go overboard about the Steele dossier on one question.
In fact, let’s forget about the Steele dossier for a moment. It is not the mandate of the Special Counsel to validate or invalidate it. The dossier is a distraction.
In a nutshell, what European democracies knew in the early 2000’s, the US public found out in 2016 - that the agenda of Putin and Russian foreign policy was anti-democratic, with goals aimed at divisions in democratic countries, and destruction of NATO. That most Americans were unaware is simply typical of American disinterest in international affairs in general. In fact, Europe had their own opiate crisis at least by 2012, if not earlier. The US seems to always think they are the only country on the planet.
Russia attacked this country. They did not “meddle”; they did not just “interfere”. They found a way, whether through their own devices or through aid from US citizens, to sow divisions, and they even had an acolyte in Candidate Donald Trump, who as early as December 2015 or January 2016 was singing Putin’s praises and embracing Russian foreign policy on the campaign trail. Why? There are many “whys” that need answering of many Trump people.
5
So Trump and his minions are too disorganized and dumb to participate in a foreign intelligence and manipulation scheme? Why does this not make me feel better? "I just drove the car, your honor. I had no idea my friends were robbing and shooting people in the bank."
12
Listening to Mr Douthat I feel like I am reading one of several hypothetical endings to the Mueller drama, perhaps an ending favored by his conservative soul. I'd prefer to hold the speculation and see the real thing.
2
"Agnostic" is not what I would call Douthat after reading that. The counter intelligence investigation into Donald Trump began began before the Steele dossier was produced. The right wing trope that Steele document inspired the Special Counsel hi appointment is a misdirection here. Comey has admitted that the FBI had already begun investigating the Trump campaign when he made his ill-advised public declarations of first re-opening of the HC email case and then closing it again after finding nothing.
7
Other than the U.S. There are 192 nations in the United Nations.
The Trump campaign was saturated with links, collateral connections and overlaps with just one of these countries. It wasn’t one of our allies. It was a country that operates as a criminal enterprise - a mafiosa tied to a state.
Where are the links, the ties to other nations? Italy? Netherlands? New Zealand? Only Russia.
He bashes our other allies. Especially our neighbors, Canada and Mexico. He wants to destroy NATO - a force multiplier for the United States - basically puts the top 22 militaries in the world at our disposal for the price of token diplomacy (that the diplomacy by rational). NATO makes all of the nations in it supremely secure and it reduces risk associated with investment, trade and economic growth to all of its members.
At the very least, besides being a disgrace, Trump is undermining the interest of ever single American other than his own family.
Every time the GOP gives us a new president, it’s a new low.
8
What if Mr. Trump is actually a “Manchurian Candidate,” set up by Russia as far back as the 80s? What if Putin’s Russia chose Trump back then as a potential future asset “without portfolio,” just to see how things could turn?
If that were the case, as numerous respectable and respected sources have documented, then what a huge mass of tendrils of truth have been woven into the fabric of this story over three decades? And, with an investigation by a person of the sort of integrity Robert Mueller has earned in his lifetime, it would seem reasonable that whatever the outcome of Mr. Mueller’s Investigation, either Justice and the Rule of Law will prove Democracy and our Constitution still valid and vibrant... or America shall disintegrate.
4
Not being an active Russian asset is not the same as not participating in a conspiracy. Let's review, shall we?
> Trump's team knew about Russia's possession of emails via Papadopolous (Mar/Apr)
> Team Trump knew about Russia's support for their campaign and privately encouraged them (Don Jr emails)
> Team Trump dangled sanctions relief in exchange for their support. (Trump Tower meeting)
> Trump actively called on them to perform crimes to his benefit and they complied immediately. (Russia, if you are listening)
> Team Trump passed polling data to the Russians for them to use in better targeting their electioneering efforts. A level of coordination that would be highly illegal for a US based PAC.
> Team Trump attempted to carry out their part of the Quid Pro Quo by lifting sanctions on Russia (Ukraine plank of RNC platform, Flynn's efforts during the transition.)
> Team Trump has engaged in non-stop perjury, witnes tampering, abuse of power and obstructions of justice to keep this conspiracy from coming to light.
Just because Trump was (probably) not an activated Kremlin agent going into the election does not mean that they were not active and willing participants in an effort to subvert our democracy that was both successfully and, considering the tight margin, almost certainly determinative of the election.
Every day this drags on is one more day with an illegitimate President performing illegitimate acts, such as appointing SC justices he has no right to appoint.
23
The problem is that Douthat is selectively making assessments based on raw intelligence that was collected and posted two or more years ago. A lot more is known now, such as the delivery by Manafort of sophisticated polling data to Ukrainians/Russians.
Mueller is in the eighth inning, but Douthat is drawing assumptions based on what was publicly known in the second inning. The other problem is Michael Cohen was only party to a portion of what went on between the Russians and the campaign. The Trump Tower was an important element, but it is highly unlikely Cohen would know all.
6
Your analysis completely overlooks the fact that Trump, his family and other close associates denied the campaign's contacts with Russians multiple times--denials that were later found to be lies. Why? If there is nothing to hide, why have Trump & Co. tried so hard to hide it?
13
Let’s keep it simple. Re: Mr Trump... “The_lady_doth_protest_too_much,_methinks”
Or as Andy Borowitz put it “Most Innocent People Need to Hire Thirty-Five Lawyers at Some Point”
7
Maybe it got lost in the mail....
Most commenters seem to prefer to change direction rather than backpedal.
Well Ross - assume you did this research long ago, but just in case - buy and read "House of Trump -- House of Putin". Only with that as a foundation and touch off point can you legitimately delve into the Trump/Russia long term well documented relationship. Keep a barf bag close at hand when you read it. As for Steele, keep in mind that right wing think tanks got the process off the ground - then dropped the investigation agreement - then shuddered when it was picked up and continued under a Democratic organization. Frankly, I think Steele is credible. I believe you do also.
6
I am leaning in your direction re: the bumbling fools theory. I think Trump will be happy with the Mueller report. Then what becomes of the witch-hunt rants. Oh yes, he’ll just lie and say he never said that. He’ll strut and be insufferable.
2
If the Steele dossier were the only thing we had to worry about, Douthat might have a point.
However, we have a lying, cheating, racist family of grifters who have taken over the White House and Republican Party, without any serious pushback. This will not end well for our nation, no matter what Douthat thinks.
10
You don’t have to wait too long. Answers are coming.
2
Half of my Facebook feed is convinced that Trump is a willing Russian asset. A cursory look at Twitter shows that there are thousands (millions?) of people out there who, likewise, believe Trump and Co. are embroiled in dastardly treasonous acts with the Russians. And of course, MSNBC pushes that exact narrative on a daily basis.
And yet, I think Russ nails it when he writes:
"Trump and his circle weren’t collaborators but fools and wannabes, who might have been willing to play games with spies and hackers, but who mostly just bumbled around haplessly on the sidelines."
When you look at the third rate charlatans with whom Trump surrounds himself, what other reasonable conclusion could anyone reach? These are largely dimwitted grifters we're talking about, not sophisticated double agents.
I imagine the Mueller report will largely come to the same conclusions Ross points out...which, given the breathless two-year anticipation, might end up helping Trump. To those that don't follow the news closely (that is, most Americans) it may indeed look like the infamous "nothingburger," given the lack of a smoking gun.
The thing is, Trump is a crook and his administration is breathtakingly corrupt. Had Trump's critics zeroed in on this with a laser focus, instead of the silly Russian spy business, they'd have been much better off.
1
@Vin
The thing is, that "bumbling around on the sidelines" is just Douthat's way of minimizing Trump's involvement. There is still every reason to believe that Team Trump willingly entered into a conspiracy (perhaps after it had begun, not prior to as a founder and planning member) and took numerous illegal steps to both advance that conspiracy and block it from being discovered.
And let's not forget that this conspiracy, "bumbling" or not, was almost certainly a determining factor of who won the election. Would Hillary have lost by 70k votes in 3 states had all those emails never been made fodder for weeks of selective, out-of-context reports and bad press?
5
One can only imagine the articles Mr. Douthat would be writing if Trump had been elected as a Democrat. A thrice married philanderer who cavorted with porn stars and Playmates. He used to be a pro choice Democrat until he ran as a pro life Republican. Imagine the outrage from Mr. Douthat if a Democrat Trump had connections with the "Evil Empire".
Can you imagine the conservative spin if the "dossier" implicated a Democrat?
7
Even if Trump et al. fall into the category of “Useful Idiot,” they sure worked to fulfill the aims of Putin and the Russian state.
Was there “collusion?” Who knows. But, the end result has been better than expected: The US is diminished as a beacon of light in a troubled world.
Much of the Steele dossier has shown to be true. The kompromat is likely not a pee tape, but rather Russian knowledge of some Trump crime, likely money laundering or bank or insurance fraud. In fact, one of the attendees to the Trump Tower meeting was known money launderer Irakly "Ike" Kaveladze.
So much of Trump's actions regarding Russia remain unexplained. Why, for example, did President Trump write a false statement about Junior's Trump Tower meeting? Trump has not explained his lie, nor has anyone in his administration.
Even if Trump himself is not implicated in any Russian wrongdoing, Trump's decision to employ Manafort, who although not charged appears to have committed treason, is malfeasance on an impeachable scale.
More indictments are forthcoming, and the indictments won't be helpful to Trump's "no collusion" claim.
4
"One of them, soon well corroborated, was that Russian intelligence was behind the hacks of the Democratic National Committee and the release of stolen emails through WikiLeaks."
"Corroborated?" When? How? The DNC still refuses the FBI to forensically examine its server that it claims the Russians hacked. The DNC still insists the FBI settle for a report from the DNC's server security firm CrowdStrike.
https://slate.com/technology/2017/05/the-fbi-is-harder-to-trust-on-the-dnc-hack-because-it-relied-on-crowdstrikes-analysis.html
Now why oh why would that be? If I report my house was burglarized, wouldn't it raise at least a few eyebrows if I insist the police not investigate directly but settle for a report from my burglar alarm company? Check the Trump-hate for a moment; isn't that a bit odd?
One other comment for all the Trump-haters who are so sure they are so much more intelligent than the "Deplorables": if Mueller has any proof that a Russian asset by the name of The Donald is sitting in the White House presiding over the country, does anyone in his/her right mind -- other than Rachel Maddow or Adam Schiff -- really believe Mueller would sit on such a dire threat to the country for over two years now without coming out with it long ago?
After this is over, Trump will still be standing, Adam Schiff will still insist he's seen proof which he'll still refuse to reveal of course; and Rachel Maddow will badly need something other than Russia to keep her ratings up.
4
"...Trump and his circle weren’t collaborators but fools and wannabes, who might have been willing to play games with spies and hackers, but who mostly just bumbled around haplessly on the sidelines."
Or at least they made it look that way.
I'm still betting on where there's smoke there's fire, and we've seen plenty of smoke even without the Steele dossier.
3
Basically, the dossier is a hoax and everything related to it is fiction. And, Trump and Company are bungling boobs that beat the smartest woman in the world.
Don't forget, Comey sank Hillary with his, "She's so guilty, we don't know where to start, so we won't prosecute her." Then, when every person called for Comey to be fired, Trump fired him. That was the basis for the "obstruction of justice" claim, because Trump didn't want the dossier investigated.
There are going to be some very upset people, when this report comes out. And when the glorious leader ignores demands to co-operate with congressional investigations, turn the "CRAZY" knob all the way up.
Meanwhile, in America, more people than ever are working and trade deals become fair. Texas will have zero unemployment, because every man, woman and child will be building walls and pipelines or pumping oil.
Winning.
1
Nothing in the Steele dossier has been disproven, to my knowledge, while much has been confirmed. Jeff Sessions did, indeed meet twice with Russians (and then conveniently forgot while testifying before his buddies,),
Calling the Russiagate trivializes the seriousness of possible treason. This is not in the same league as Beghazigate or Pizzagate! This is about an attack by a foreign power and our cowardly refusal to respond with more than hand wringing.
The evidence and convictions already public paint, at best, a picture of Trump as an incompetent dupe with no judgement skills. Flynn, Manafort, etc. tell us that, if not a traitor, he is surely a puppet!
3
Ross:
The Steele Dossier is irrelevant at this point. The Southern District of New York is going to charge him with racketeering, insurance fraud, tax evasion, election finance violations....the list likely goes on. By focusing on the Steele Dossier, you are just another apologist and distractor enabling Trump’s consistent criminal behavior.
9
Practically thinking, it’s far easier imagining the T-rump troop as bumbling fools, trying to game themselves into a relationship with the Ruskies, than being a bunch of competent spies.
For Vlad Putin to accept any of those people, DJT in particular, as an agent is beyond the pale. Putin is a professional after all.
The Law's requirements for conviction are about as low a moral bar as can be set. What's threatening to the Republic is that the president is 1) a bully and a thug, 2) incompetent at best to lead the country, 3) despotic in his tendencies and a threat to the Constitution, 4) racist in his attitudes toward people of color, and 5) a greedy amoral narcissist. These character traits coupled with his policy agenda are the rationale for removing him either in the next election or when the GOP Senate develops some serious character (which is not likely).
3
Guess I watched a different hearing! Trump & family were up to their eyeballs with Russia on the hotel deal. Money laundering operation. Kissing up to Putin. The dossier has largely not been disproven.
What we're learning is that regardless of all that Trump & crime family are corrupt criminals. The complicit GOP has sold their souls.
3
Great article. Russiagate done.
"The State of Russiagate"
It's not Russiagate anymore, it's "TRUMPGATE" now and has been for over a year.
Hush money paid to keep two women quiet, breaking campaign finance law, wheeling and dealing with a hotel in Moscow during the campaign, his crooked non profit in N.Y. that was shut down, his fudging property values up and down, IRS wiil be looking at that. There is much more, and with a little luck he will go to jail. Mueller is one thing, the Southern District of New York is an entirely different ballgame.
3
In its report on Russian meddling in the 2016 election, the U.S. Intelligence Community assessed with “high confidence” that Russia hacked DNC email and gave it to WikiLeaks. But in Annex B (Estimative Language) of the report, it warned that “High confidence in a judgment does not mean that the assessment is a fact are a certainty; such judgment might be wrong.”
The FBI never inspected DNC servers. It based its opinion on an analysis performed by a private cybersecurity firm that has a good reputation, but some of its conclusion have proven to be wrong.
Julian Assange has offered to provide proof that WikiLeaks did not get the DNC email from Russia or any other government entity in exchange for the same immunity the Washington Post gets when it published stolen documents. Special Counsel Robert Mueller should take Assange up on his offer.
https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf
2
Agnostic?? Not by a long shot. It is clear the author remains perfectly hapoy to accept the pollution of the presidency in exchange for anti choice judges. So. Just. Please.
2
Good points, Ross. Russia had numerous reasons to dislike Hillary Clinton based on her anti-Russian policies while Secretary of State. Therefore Russia would likely have hacked the DNC in order to embarrass her no matter who the Republican candidate was. The fact that Trump was the candidate was just icing on the cake. It helped put a "useful idiot" in the white house.
1
Sorry, the "Russian hacks" have NOT been "well corroborated". Neither have the hundreds of stories published by the Times based on anonymous sources. Russiagate has gravely harmed the national security interests of the USA. I await your apology.
WikiLeaks denies Russia as the source, the DNC server was never examined by the FBI, former high level CIA technologists have said that the transfer speed was too high for a hack and that a thumb drive was used, the matter was never looked at by a full intelligence review--and the NSA did not have much confidence in the finding of Brennan's hand picked group. As Seymour Hersh has said "high confidence" means we don't have a clue and the last time the CIA expressed high confidence in something was the Iraq weapons of mass destruction debacle.
Don't start with the internet troll episode-that's also pretty bogus.
In fact, I know of nothing in the Steele dossier that has been "well corroborated". This dossier has, however, been very useful in demonizing Russia, increasing tensions between our two countries, and increasing military spending. Who is really behind it and the sources used would be a very fruitful area of examination. I won't hold my breath.
Russiagate is one of the most embarrassing episodes in the history of my country. Once again, the mainstream media has mislead us and let the American people down.
2
For the apparently rock-solid Trump base of support, it comes down to this: As long as there is not an actual pee tape introduced into evidence and displayed on a screen before Congressional investigators, Donald Trump is cleared. Their brains will not process any thoughts on the subject more complicated than that.
Add to that the fact that Trump would claim that the tape was fake anyway, and the new AG just waiting to suppress any evidence he can in the name of national security, and the most likely scenario for Trump's removal from the Oval Office remains electoral defeat in 2020.
2
I agree with you Ross. Trump et al are far too stupid to be other than ignorant pawns in the international games.
It's even possible the Donald didn't realize he was laundering Russian Mob money back in the 80s, while it's obvious to all who look at that time (both then and now). He's such a fool and so easily played it's been pathetic to watch him on the world stage.
As my dad told me about Nixon, "the best con men con themselves first", and Trump is well and truly conned.
The Mueller investigation, and all its spin off, was never about corruption, it was never about impeachment, and in the beginning it wasn't about his character as a racist, misogynist, white nationalist, and his insatiable greed. I believe that this whole sordid affair comes down to one thing: National Security. It began with questions about Russian influence, something everyone seems confident happened - but conspiracy or collusion? It comes down to the security of our election processes and our concerns for free and fair elections. What I believe is the most disquieting thing is Trump's attraction to Authoritarianism and his failure, time after time, to believe what our Intelligence agencies are saying and to take the word of authoritarian government leaders over our own intelligence services.
In my 65 years in this country, I can't recall a time when I truly felt the nation, as a whole, was drifting away from Democracy. We have been polarized in the past and will be again, but being this polarized under this president, who seems intent on giving away the country for his own self-aggrandizement and wealth, is the most troubling to me. In the past, I have felt personally insecure when super patriots or the Christian Far Right begins talking, but that comes down to differences in opinion. Our current state feels like there is an existential threat to our country and way of life in the White House. We seem to have elected a Manchurian candidate.
9
A self serving column as Douthat attempts to capture the high ground for the conservative moralists like himself and Brooks while offering a safe haven to Trump. The moralists need the Trump voters and wealthy donors ( who will overpay for the camouflage of the speaking engagements of the Douthat and Brooks) . I am going out on a limb here but I don’t think the Steele dossier is the predicate for Mueller.
4
If Trump can’t take credit for the skullduggery that illegitimately gained him the presidency then Putin and others get it all.
Either way, I feel that this country has been invaded by a foreign enemy and that America has lost its democracy to a dictator or a partnership of two two dictators.
Trump will never cede power peacefully if he loses the 2020 election.
4
My guess Ross is that although there may not be the smoking gun you are demanding in the Russian HackerGate scandal , Mueller et al will successfully produce several spent shells and empty strong boxes with enough finger prints on them to bring down, if not the Family Mob Boss, several of his Capos as well as close blood ties including his name sake son and his son-in-law-'Bone Saw' Jared Kushner.
1
Steele dossier does not seem to be primarily grounded in Russian disinformation as you opine.You overlook its origins and antecedents in the U.S itself with DNC and its hired specialists !
Call me weird, but I've never viewed The Dossier as a fact filled documentation of history. I see it as the vapor trail left in the wake of Donald Trump's extravagant tear through Russia. He has a long career of unseemly behavior; the Dossier material fits the pattern perfectly.
Cohen's testimony gives Trump scant cover. For those strangely fixated on the Dossier, I suppose Cohen confirmed their distrust. However, Cohen exposed Trump as the worst sort of amoral huckster. He is a liar, a con man, and a cheat. Cohen provided documentation of Trump's illegality while serving in office. Whether or not the Dossier is accurate on every detail strikes me as wholly irrelevant.
The president is, in fact, a crook. He does violence to our constitution and moral character every day he remains in office. He is an insult to America. Who cares about the Dossier?
5
"On the eve of Muellerdamerung..."
We can't know when it will be released, we can't know what will be in the report, and we certainly can't take the particular allegations of the Steele dossier to indicate the limit of its scope or impact.
Amidst all this uncertainty, however, we can at least try to get our German borrowings right: the word is Dämmerung. So “Müllerdämmerung” would I think be the way to go here.
2
Douthat is too naive to think any revelation of facts will persuade the Republican Congress or voters to impeach Trump. Such revelation will be dismissed as fake news. They are by now well conditioned by Trump and the whole Right wing media and propaganda machinery to believe that.
Secondly, while there are still no direct evidence to prove Trump directly and intentionally collude with Russia to affect 2016 election, Trump has since done plenty of suspicious things -- starting with firing the Director of FBI running that investigation to Trump's incessant remarks to undermine Mueller and FBI in general, to Trump meeting with Putin alone, to Trump refusing to impose additional sanctions on Russia, bipartisan sanctions overwhelmingly approved by Congress.... do I need to go on?
As it is often said, if this had been Hillary or a Democrat president, Republicans, including those like Douthat, would be screaming impeachment, as they did with Bill Clinton's transgression which was far less and far less serious. Bill Clinton lied that once. How many times and on how many things did Trump lie, even on matter of national security?
Do conservatives really care so much about abortions that they are willing to turn blind eyes over Trump betraying our country? I never am really convinced they care because they also at the same time want to cut any other government assistance to babies after they are born. Sanctity of life seems to apply only before birth.
Trump their moral vanguard?!
4
If the Steele dossier is a result of Russian disinformation, then why have all the Russians who might have supplied Steele with the information been killed or disappeared?
One would think they would be rewarded for a disinformation campaign rather than being murdered.
So, they attempted collusion and espionage, but were too dumb to actually pull it off ??? And Trump International Properties is not REALLY a front for money laundering, but just another in the long line of Trump schemes and Cons ? Ross, dear, you should write only about Religion. After all, no facts are required. Only opinions and belief. SAD.
4
The most likely case is that Trump spent years laundering Russian money through his real estate business ... not a good look for an American president.
4
Ross convincing himself that Trump will be fine. Delusions run deep!
2
I think you make a very reasonable argument.
Ross. If you were running for president of this country and you learned that the Russian government was working to manipulate the election to your benefit ... would you?
a- say, isn't that great, and passively accept the help and also have your team get in contact with your representatives, or
b- call the local FBI field office and alert them
Your answer might give you some sense of your own ethical makeup.
How do you conclude, in your brilliant and capable mind, that passive acceptance and followup without specific coordination is OK?
This comment from a refugee of the Republican Party.
1
This is nonsense, but we had better get used to it. The conservative Punditboro is going to lay it on thick in the coming weeks.
The premise here is simple and inelegant: Cohen has no direct evidence of collusion so it did not happen. We need to remind ourselves that Michael Cohen attended the Strip Mall School of Law and was useful to Trump due exclusively to is credulousness, so the fact that that he wasn't in the loop is meaningless.
No one knows anything until the Mueller Report drops. Period. If, when it does drop, it becomes undeniable that 1) an enormous percentage of Trump's wealth is due to his relationships in Russia, which his son Eric already admitted to; 2) Trump was willing to accept social media propaganda assistance from Russian intelligence in order to sway voters in crucial states, an acceptance that included sharing lots of polling data with Russian intelligence, which we already know is true from US intelligence reports and the latest Manafort proffer; and 3) Trump's, and Trump's admirers', admiration for Putin stems largely from the uncontested fact that Putin is white; then we will know how debased and treasonous our President and his base are.
Michael Cohen is just a fool, which he admitted to in front of all of America just last week. To insist that his testimony absolves Trump is laughable.
4
It is hardly surprising that Mr. Douthat is finding a way to stick with his fellow right wingers. Surely, those of us totally disgusted with Trump and the Trumpsters, have looked for a conspiracy. We who are thoughtful understand, of course, that there may not have been a deep, planned conspiring by Trump. Mostly, we doubt he has that capability and neurological stamina. That they bumbled into illegalities is established. The right wingers and Mr. Douthat would use their bumbling as an excuse and a white wash. That Trump and his retinue are ignorant fools who committed some crimes, but not every crime, does not exonerate them. I realize the Republican Party no longer has any base in honor or morality, but it is still weird that Mr. Douthat and all Repulicans have caved.
From what I’ve read about Steele’s background, I doubt he would be fooled by Russian disinformation. Republicans wouldn’t have, initially, hired a dolt.
As with this column, I’ll attempt patience on the Russia connection, but still believe this president is an easily manipulated, controlled puppet.
And having just finished reading “Becoming”, it was a reminder, chronicle, of the hours, days, late nights President Obama spent reading, studying, going over reports, position papers, etc. The “taking care”. This president is reported as watching TV, golfing....and hates to read, anything?
So my lingering question is, who IS doing all that reading, making those decisions, based on what? And of course, who elected, them?
It goes without saying that an investigation was needed. That the Russkies were publicly fingered as providing DNC emails but no RNC emails is certainly cause for concern.
But a lot of what went on with the Russkies is not a case of criminal conspiracy but stupidity. Monumental stupidity.
Unlike politicians businesses don't really care about politics so to speak. If they can engage in legal trade and make a decent profit, that's what matters. That's why businesses go to places like Russia, China, etc.
President Trump, unlike his predecessors, didn't really appreciate the degree to which his typical interactions would further inflame an already inflammable situation.
The idea that they cooperated or assisted the Russians with the email hack is laughable. Not one individual has been put forth who had any technical or insider knowledge that would have helped the Russians. It was the DNC who actually PAID someone from a foreign country, albeit a friendly one, with direct ties to that country's intelligence network. And it's guaranteed that if anything about the RNC showed up on wikileaks the DNC would have been all over it, as in reading every single thing they could get their hands on.
Douthat makes a lot of ZIP here out of nothing more than Cohen's quite credible deal of a trip to Prague and unsurprising ignorance of international going one for which he, unlike Manafort, was ill prepared by cosmopolitan savvy or smarts to be helpful.
1
One indication of how little we know came from Eric Swalwell who was asked on CNN if he learned anything new from Cohen's behind-closed-doors meeting. His reply — "Boy, did we."
The revelations may not be Russia related, but that's all right with me. I just want Trump to receive the punishment he deserves.
@Tate -- A California Democrat said they've got Trump this time. Heard that before.
"On the eve of Muellerdamerung, that’s what this agnostic very cautiously expects."
And sincerely hopes, no doubt!
Folks - simply remember this. Trump is going to release the full un-redacted Investigators Generals Report soon thereafter Mueller releases his report. There is another coming in a few months. Theses are Trumps Ace cards in the hole. For those salivating for fireworks, this’ll be it. Senior level Obama officials & foreign Intelligence Communities will be scrambling for cover. Most forget, Trump has been playing this game with seasoned Politicians from both sides of the aisle his whole professional life. Deep down inside, the most ardent haters of Trump know, the guy is a pro at reading adversaries, foes & friends alike. For those in doubt, for almost 32 months, the media, professional politician & intelligence groups have hit them with everything they have. No one else could’ve survived this onslaught. He just keeps coming at them w/o fear or pause. One can surmise, you doubt Trumps 2020 bid at ones peril. He lives for and relishes adversity like most relish stability & calm. Buckle up.
1
The impeachable offenses against Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton amount, in toto, to hardly a hill of beans compared to all the crimes and misdemeanors of Donald Trump, even leaving completely aside anything to do with Russia.
2
Trumps actions vis Russia only make sense if he was a kompromat: dissing our intelligence services, toadying to Putin in Helsinki, slagging NATO. Trump had a member of the Russian mafia working out of Trump tower on his floor. Anyone familiar with how the Russians work should be very alarmed. When his taxes are made public, I’ll bet they find big loans from Russian sources propping up his decrepit empire. The Russians use money like a weapon.
1
Every time Trump screams 'no collusion' I hear his enormous silence on money laundering, campaign finance violations, obstruction of justice, corruption, nepotism, hush money payments to porn stars, mob rule, discrimination, influence peddling, the first lady's working as an illegal alien, her parent's 'chain migration' etc. By focusing only on 'collusion' this essay seems similar.
1
It is a truly sad state of affairs to see someone seriously propose that the Steele Dossier be the bar against which investigations should be measured when determining a permissible level of malfeasance for the Trump administration.
Douthat and the GOP are now shifting their game from denying the incriminating facts to managing expectations. Trump famously claimed he could publicly shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any support. His apologists are now effectively trying to suggest that if his crimes are anything less than publicly murdering someone, we should all just shrug it off and give him a pass.
That’s nuts. Any objective look at Mr. Trump, his administration, his company, and his cadre of sycophants shows a level of dishonesty combined with disinterested incompetence that would normally never be deemed acceptable. There is enough incontrovertible evidence in the public domain to see that. Mueller’s and Congress’ investigations are at minimum going to show what’s already known, but in more detail. While it’s still possible they could ultimately show Trump and his gang to be on the spectrum more as “useful idiots” and less as brilliant co-conspirators for the Russians’ attack on our democracy, that doesn’t change the currently observable fact that they willingly accepted the Russian help and played right along with it.
We cannot let our expectations be managed. Trump is the most corrupt President in modern history, and he must be held to account.
3
Ross, where exactly is the line that separates “playing games with spies and hackers “ from collusion?
Mueller’s exculpatory report may be reminiscent of Comey’s report on Hillary. It cost her the presidency even without formal charges. Let’s hope for the same outcome.
1
Ross, kindly remember that the “Steele Dossier” was NOT the sole basis for the FISA application at the root of the Mueller investigations, notwithstanding the passionate arguments of the Trump enablers. So, discrediting it fails to undermine the justification for scrutiny of Trump’s potentially criminal activities.
My own prediction is that Mueller will eventually conclude that while there is a great deal of evidence of collusion with Russia and obstruction of justice, said evidence is primarily circumstantial and insufficient or inadequate to support criminal prosecution. Trump and Fox News will celebrate the finding of no (direct proof of) collusion or obstruction, and the stakes for the Congressional processes will dramatically spike up.
I'm certainly going to sleep better tonight knowing that our President and his circle are not "collaborators but fools and wannabes, who might have been willing to play games with spies and hackers, but who mostly just bumbled around haplessly on the sidelines." But what MIGHT keep me awake is the knowledge that his core voters would re-elect him knowing of his hapless bumbling but supporting him nevertheless because the alternative might be "a socialist".
385
@WFGersen EXACTLY. It doesn't matter whether the trump campaign knowingly or unknowingly conspired with Russia to get him elected. The fact is, it happened. Trump says, "Russia, if you're listening..." and that very day, Russia hacks Hillary's emails. The fact that the trump Tower Moscow was in the works well into 2016 shows a quid pro quo, as does the RNC changing a plank in their party platform to benefit Russia. trump welcomed Kremlin-connected Russian officials without notifying his own press and shared sensitive intelligence with them. And then there's all of the pro-Putin toadying trump has performed since day one. It's been happening in plain sight, some people just choose to ignore it.
30
@WFGersen - Seconded.
I suppose there should be a CPAC feather in Mr. Douthat's MAGA cap for managing to get through an entire essay on the Trump consortium's foibles without using the term "emoluments clause" in a sentence.
In a similar vein, anyone who may have been tasked with the job of sitting through the entirety of the poetry slam marathon of malapropism and derisive hillbilly humor that was the president's CPAC address (without being strapped to a chair a la "A Clockwork Orange", replete with eyelid clamps and irrigation drops) should definitely get the rest of the week off with pay.
21
@WFGersen I’m not going to sleep any more soundly knowing that Trump and his henchmen were unwitting tools and assets of a foreign adversary, rather than witting collaborators. The end result is pretty much the same.
I agree 100% about the voters who incredibly don’t recognize the problem.
14
What took place in 2016 (through today) was Russia's implementation of "active measures," the same way that Russia interfered with Ukrainian and Georgian politics for the prior 15 years. It may be that a direct tie between DT himself and the Russian government or its president can't be proved, but it is equally obvious that many people around DT have lied (risking prison time) about Russian contacts during the campaign, transition and his administration. Manafort's provision of polling info to Kilimnik while Manafort was DT's campaign manager crosses the threshold of what Mueller was tasked with evaluating. So "yes collusion".
Pundits oversimplify (Mueller must prove DT and Putin talked) to distort the significance of outcomes. As long as DT's administration and McConnell's Senate are enabling the packing of courts with anti abortion judges, Ross will act like there's nothing to see here. But I can tell most readers are on to this.
229
@Jsw. Ross takes the agnostic approach, which means he is a non-believer, but he is hedging his bet with his “maybe i’m Wrong” attitude. Either outcome for DJT will result in a win for RD, and he will continue to prevaricate, while remaining indignant at charges by Democrats (and all the others Ross deems are beneath him, and his chess-club brain).
16
@M..Miles
Well, "agnostic" is not "atheistic." Agnostic means one does not know, rather than that one does not believe. That said, Ross, being highly intelligent and hyperliterate, might well have intentionally used "agnostic" even if he is a non-believer of any of the "four big possibilities" put forth on the dossier. His opinion could be a writerly misdirection from the truth. On that point, I will have to be agnostic for now.
6
@Jsw,
There are a number of occasions when Donald Trump and Putin could have talked prior to Trump becoming president. This has been born out by several journalists. Nobody recorded these discussions but judging by their actions Trump is being handled by Putin.
In other words, Trump, and company have committed treason and it is the responsibility of patriots to remove him, try him and if necessary, and possible, execute him as a spy.
6
I once read that the Soviet Union preferred to deal with Republican administrations than with Democrats. I don't remember the reason given. But it's interesting that in the last 60 years or so, the fates of the Republican party and Russia have intersected in curious headline-grabbing ways. In 1956 the Soviets crushed the Hungarian uprising, which took place just before the U.S. election that put Eisenhower into the White House for a second term. In 1968 the Soviets crushed the Czech uprising that coincided with the famously unruly Democratic convention in Chicago. Nixon was subsequently elected. It makes you wonder...
1
I tend to agree with Ross except...why did Trump appear to support Russia during the campaign and after in a number of ways that just don't make sense in terms of appeasing his base or advancing him politically?
Dismissing the Ukraine annexation, pushing for an end to sanctions, blind acceptance of Putin's explanation for the London poisoning episode, cozying up to Putin in public on the international stage while dismantling old alliances which would work to Russia's advantage, and many more examples.
The right wing of the Republican party and moderates in the GOP as well have long regarded Russia as the enemy. What is to be gained by Trump so publicly backing the Putin regime? Can this all be simply explained by his apparent love affair with any autocratic strongman?
I agree this does not amount to proof positive, but it's a busload of suspicion in my view.
252
@Vincent Michaels.
There is proof positive that Trump prefers dictatorships to democratic, law-based countries. He is an apologist for political murders. There is, over and over, severe abuse of power by Trump. It is open, in our faces. What will it take for others in power to finally remove this autocrat, liar and wanna-be total dictator?
23
@Vincent Michaels
And why did Trump's campaign manager deliver internal polling data to Russia?
That internal polling data was used by Russia to TARGET Americans before the election. The Russia-created Blactivist account targeted African Americans in Detroit to depress their turnout as just one example.
The contacts between Trump's people and Russia are too consequential and too numerous to be ignored. As Cohen confirmed, nothing happens in Trumpland without Trump's knowledge.
27
@Vincent Michaels "why did Trump appear to support Russia during the campaign and after in a number of ways that just don't make sense in terms of appeasing his base or advancing him politically?"
Russia is a nuclear power that the Obama Administration antagonized by meddling in the Ukraine, an area of key strategic interest to Russia but of little or no significance to the US. Defusing the situation with Russia makes a lot of sense to me. You don't want to raise tensions with a nuclear power. It could lead to an accidental nuclear exchange that would kill you, me, and most readers of this article.
3
File this column under the heading of "Wishful Thinking" Ross. If I had enough characters allotted to respond in full, I would pick apart all of your falsehoods, but I'll try to focus on just a few.
First, it doesn't take a "years long" engagement with the Russians to form a conspiracy or to qualify as illegal and treasonous. One meeting is all it would require, and there are reports of multiple meetings between Trump's operatives, and perhaps Trump himself.
Second, even if Trump and his gang weren't actively working with the Russians, they were utilizing information from Russian resources that they knew were obtained illegally. "Accidentally" breaking the law is no defense.
Three, while no proof has been revealed yet, there is strong circumstantial evidence that Trump was obtaining favors and financial assistance from Russia and other countries, and this may well still be going on.
Fourth, the Steele dossier is not by any means an indictment, nor is it being relied upon as proof, so "discrediting" it may give you and the rest of the Faux News crowd joy to poke holes in it, but that won't prove Trump's innocence.
Beyond all of this Ross, I have to ask: If all of this were associated with Hilary or another Dem, would you be so "cautious"? Of course you wouldn't! Even ONE of these charges would enough to cause you to ready the lynch rope. But I guess living in denial is a basic state of mind for conservatives and Republicans
621
@Kingfish52
Neither party has cornered the market on hypocrisy. Whether it's Tump or Bill Clinton, the partisanship is grotesque and keeps people from voting (or voting as an independent). I wonder if this monumental investigation would have delivered similarly modest results if it had been directed at Hillary's campaign? Surely they had similar, opportunistic interactions with Russians, Ukrainians, Chinese. Saudis, Israelis, etc..
2
@carl bumba I'll give you credit for trying to assert a middle position, but you're employing a false equivalency. Perhaps "high crimes and misdemeanors" could be found in Hilary's work, but they would pale in comparison to the glaring examples that hardly even need uncovering in Trump's case - and that's just what has been made public! When - if - we ever see his tax returns, and the rest of the buried treasure, I have no doubt it will reveal a resume to make Al Capone envious.
I'm all for being fair and balanced, but the mountain of wrongdoing by Trump breaks the scales.
53
@carl bumba You say "Surely they had similar, opportunistic interactions" without a scintilla of evidence. That is totally messed up.
BTW there were numerous investigations of Mrs. Clinton, going back to Whitewater.
As for the "modest results" of Mr. Mueller's investigations, it's a bit early to make that call, isn't it? I guess we can reasonably expect that you will dismiss Mr. Mueller's findings no matter what they are. That tells us a lot about you and nothing whatsoever about Trump's guilt or innocence.
38
I'm just shaking my head in anger at all this. Trump did not have to collude behind the scenes in order to get Russian help. All he had to do was loudly and publicly tell the Russians that he approved of their interference, which was all the information they needed to know that they were backing the right horse. And once their mission was accomplished, he tried to reward them by easing sanctions and obstructing any inquiry into the interference.
That is treason and collusion in a nutshell, and our refusal to recognize and sanction it as such will lead only to more future interference from other foreign actors. And next time it might not be the Democrats who end up being victimized.
265
Much has been made of Michael Cohen's incentive to tell the truth. More lies will only get him more jail time. On the other hand if Cohen did have unlawful involvement with the Russians that at present is not substantiated by any evidence then lying about that only makes sense. This is pure speculation on my part but has anyone heard of a more benign explanation for Trump's inexplicably friendly and warm relationship and policy proposals with Putin and Russia?
My guess is that the report will contain enough negative information that a normal president in normal times would resign. However, because of limited direct references to Trump, the loyal GOP will be able to claim that it falls short of high crimes and misdemeanors by Trump himself. Most of the criminal activity will fall on Trump henchmen or otherwise relate to obstruction of the investigation or dishonesty in responding to the investigation- activities that the GOP will accept. The conservative media is already posturing to label obstruction of justice a proper response to a politically motivated attack on there dear leader.
10
@rd Trump long practiced in using cutouts. Traceability then becomes difficult to impossible. That being said, we live in an age where connecting the dots is far simpler than it used to be. Then one must look at the many synonyms for collusion - they are multiple, and all applicable -- Now, it just takes the vast number of intelligent and informed voter to do their homework, check multiple sources, register, vote. Dump Trump, Ditch Mitch. No apathy this time.
Trump-Russia has its roots in the long-term relationship between the Trump Organization and the Russian oligarchy, which bloomed after the fall of the Soviet Union. Trump and modern Russia under Putin have confluent interests and weltanschauung. This, combined with the personal animus Putin had for Hillary Clinton stemming from her days as Secretary of State, made Trump the perfect, toxic candidate to support in the 2016 Presidential election, in which there were obvious touch-points, and Trump himself obviously knew what was being done on his behalf. Furthermore, money has flowed from Russia into Republican coffers, both as a matter of business and politics, causing the Republican Party itself to be complicit, enabling Trumps erosion of American morality, sense of Democracy; unleashing a perfect asset for the Putin's war against Western Liberal Democracies. Whether Putin or Trump expected a Presidential win, the insidious effects of the Trump presidency, along with all we already know about Trump-Russia, makes the narrative of "happy happenstance" for Putin an outlier argument that the Republicans are sure to proselytize to the American public.
8
If I were to write a script on how to look guilty, it would include trying to help Flynn, firing Comey, and railing against Sessions for recusing himself.
They say the cover-up is often worse than the crime. What do they say about an innocent person who bungles their defense so badly that everything he does looks like a cover-up?
3
I don't think it matters anymore if Trump colluded, or cooperated, or conspired or anything else. The Senate wouldn't vote to impeach him even if Mueller produced evidence and Trump admitted it. For whatever reason Trump's hold on Republicans is iron tight. Unless the Democrats can get their act together and do it soon, it's very likely that Trump will be reelected in 2020.
10
@Ms. Pea
You are right about Trump's hold on the GOP. But, the fact is, one cannot win w/ GOP votes only (GOP has shrunk so much in the last few years), even w/ gerrymandering... Trump got Independents (low info voters) and "Reagan Democrats" (high school educated whites) in 2016. I will not make predictions re: Trump, but, boy, it's a tough row to hoe, winning with the GOP base only.
Why did Manafort provide an Ukrainian oligarch with close Russian contacts closely guarded Trump campaign polling data? Why did Manafort effect a last second change to the Republican platform with regard to Russian involvement in Ukraine? Why did Kushner and Trump Junior meet with a Russian operative who said they had dirt on Clinton? Why did Flynn lie about discussing lifting of sanctions with the Russian Ambassador? Are we to believe that these things all occurred on their own individual initiative?
20
How would this agnostic sober column read if this were Bill Clinton working with Russians to secure his wife's victory?
How would the GOP behave if Bill had payed off multiple individuals to hide affairs of his wife to get elected?
Much of what Steele has written in a report has proven correct.
And potential sources for his report are reportedly dead. And we have many convictions in Trump's inner circle for lying about Russia. Trump fired Comey over Russia.
So, let's wait for the whole report.
Certainly, Trump is not competent. We all agree on that. And it reflects poorly on the US that the 1/3 of our country wants someone like him in power, and could be so easily fooled by Russia's efforts. But then again, that dovetails with the GOP mission. Less education, more inherited wealth, less opportunity. All while scapegoating targets like minorities, immigrants and anyone else Fox can put on TV.
2020 will be the most important election ever. I don't care if Trump comes or goes. I just want the truth to come out. That will not come from Trump nor the GOP. That is certain
25
People are paying way too much attention to the Mueller investigation. If it does not destroy Trump, which it may not, it could strengthen him. That is what happened with Clinton and Republican efforts to impeach him. Let's focus on putting forward legislation that a large majority of the country can support (whether initially enacted or not) and retaking the Senate as well as the presidency. The Republicans have spent decades seizing power. Let's not expect we are going to get rid of them through the Mueller report. Even if Trump is fatally damaged, the Republican Party will still be there.
17
@MVonKorff Correct. Not only that, but if actually watch Trumps speeches, his support is unwavering on the right. His base support is stronger than anything ive seen in my lifetime
7
I think what everyone misses is Trump never thought he would win the presidency. It happened almost by accident. He clearly is the most unqualified person every to take the role. But his presidency is a pendulum swing. The pendulum had swung too far to political correctness and form over substance. Trump's victory has moved the pendulum to the mud with nothing getting done and everyone vilifying their opponents. Hopefully the pendulum will come to rest in the middle and people will be able to craft good solutions that all sides can live with in the future.
And let's stop blaming the Russians for our division. We made our own bed of hate and mistrust all they did quoting the Joker in the Dark Knight was give us "a little push." Trump walks no problems. Which is good - we need to vote him out.
8
What ever happened to the Cambridge analytical data. This company was owned by a strongly Republican supporter. I was wondering if anyone has investigated Jared Kushner’s possibility of passing that data along to the Russians.
9
@Roy Greenfield
A second employee was subpoenaed 2/17/19. Her name is Brittany Kaiser and she is cooperating fully.
3
Whether or not anything comes of any of the numerous concerns about inappropriate activities, nothing will change how history will judge the incompetence of our current administration. The effects will be clear to thinking people in the future regardless of all the smoke spewed to cover them in real time. Unless of course Orwell’s world becomes our reality and thinking people no longer exist.
6
Not conspiring with the Russians to throw an election is not the standard by which we judge presidents.
It's just as bad if they were hapless bumblers who were willing to play games with spies and hackers.
I don't see how this attitude makes it any better.
11
I dont know, Ross. Your analysis seems a little wishy-washy to me. Like many others, we'll have to see what the Mueller report actually shows... if we get to see it. As a matter of fact, we're already seeing it in all of the indictments that have been brought forward in this whole crazy debacle. In the end any kind of report will likely not change the minds of either side of the trump spectrum. I and millions of others will always believe that he is a scumball and not worthy of the presidency of the United States. His sycophant minions will believe that he was sent by God to save America from liberals. You suggest that if the grimy elements of the Steele dossier are true then that would be a legitimate call for impeachment. It seems we have enough reason now to remove him from office. His lies alone could each be viewed as worthy of impeachment. Tarnished with him forever will be the republicans who hitched their wagon to his awfulness. Hopefully, the republican electorate will wake up and see how they have been taken for granted and for fools. The whole situation is pathetic and getting scarier by the day.
14
Well okay - although Trump and those around him seem to fawn over Russians, invite Russians into the oval office and lie about Russian contacts an awful lot more than people who have done nothing wrong and have nothing to hide.
2
Meh. Trump has perjured himself in written testimony to Mueller. Trump has openly committed obstruction of justice which, as you know Ross, doesn't have to be in obstruction of a settled criminal matter. He has impeded a legal investigation and the outcome of the investigation is irrelevant. And, of course, the small matter of being unfit for office and undermining the institutions of democracy.
Isn't that enough for you?
15
I think the Democratic Majoority in congress has figured out that they have a n unlikely chance to rid the nation of Trump through a political impeachment. The main problem with impeachment, just as it is with "treason", is that congress and a majority vote of it's members get to decide what it is and what acts constitute offenses worthy of note or of being used to indict a President.
As Trump long ago noted, (to prove my point), he could shoot someone he had never before seen, to death on the street, and he would suffer no consequences.
I don't think he will test the possibility, but the fact that he and a large portion of our nation, apparently agree and allows itself to be misrepresented by this lout goes very far to proving his theory right. He will suffer no consequences regardless of how outrageous his behavior.
Pretty much like the triumvirs of Rome who played at murderous politics in the streets or across the Roman possesions.
3
"...and for good reason, since it establishes a bar for Mueller’s investigation that, if cleared, would absolutely deserve to end Trump’s presidency."
The dossier is in no way a "bar" for Mueller’s findings-- it was merely a collection of raw intelligence never meant to become the standard for any investigative findings. To imply that Mueller would have to prove the contents of the dossier (down to Cohen's presence in Prague) is to enact yet another damaging moving-of-the-goalposts in what should already be considered an extremely damning set of facts.
At every turn, people in Trump's orbit sought to secretly engage the Russians. At every turn, the Russians saw that their offers of help were met with cheers from the Trump team.
And at every turn, all of them lied about all of it.
The mere fact that our elections--the very foundation of our democracy--were and are being attacked by a hostile foreign power, and we have a president who does everything in his power *not* to respond to this attack in the interests of the American people?
It's a fundamental violation of his oath of office and a demonstration that his loyalties lie not with the constitution or the American people, but merely with himself.
8
Faced with so much Trump corruption, & so many Trump crimes, the best spin from the right is that Cohen is a liar, the “dossier” may not be entirely accurate, & "Trump and his circle weren’t collaborators but fools and wannabes”?
Fraud in the White House, and more details of a Trump Organization run like a criminal enterprise, are not disqualifying to Republicans. Just the opposite. That Trump is a racist, a con, a cheat are among the reasons people voted for him. Proving his criminal depravity only strengthens his standing with a large sector of the electorate, most Republicans Congress, & in the right wing media.
Ever since the last of the never Trumpers were rooted out of the party, it’s been clear that the G.O.P. would be an extension of the crime and grift of Trump’s brand.
Republican enablers, fixers, & co-conspirators are headed for a reckoning? One should hope.
An historic Blue Wave that retakes Congress is our civic & moral responsibility. We must awaken independents, & Dems across the spectrum to vote Blue.
7
As has been pointed out by some here, the real key to all this is the money-laundering. After his financial collapse, trump could not borrow a dime from any decently managed bank --- enter Deutschebank, well known for money laundering. Throw in a few less-than-kosher real estate deals to top off the mess, and you have the Russian government (and Mob -- there is little difference) in a position to blackmail trump and no need to actually give him orders --- thus the constant servile flattery of Putin and the otherwise mysterious use of Manafort (himself up to his dyed hairline in dirty Russian business) as campaign manager. Apply Occam's Razor to the confusion and this is the simplest explanation for all the deflection, all the blustery tweeting, and above all, the endless lies.
As a side note: Is there not more wonder that if we take trump's characterization of Cohen as an irredeemable lowlife as true, then why did trump keep him so close for ten years or so?
8
Cohen denied knowledge of Russian subterfuge and interference. Recall he has cited threats against him and his family. Recall it doesn't pay to get on Putin's bad side. Cohen wants to keep his family alive. Is there any connection?
3
So basically what you're saying then is that the Russians were successful in getting the Trump hating Democrats to spend two years outraging liberals over something that didn't happen. Well Done.
4
@RD -- Their stated goal was to increase political divisions in the US.
By plan or luck, it seems to have worked fine for them.
Their accomplices in that have been . . . not Trump.
This argument is moot.
Trump behaves as if he were a Russian asset (which he readily admitted in his first "precedential" press conference).
And sexual kompromat is less interesting than the financial trail. There is undoubtedly a good reason Trump has resisted releasing his tax returns and private accounts.
8
I don't know, Ross. Your analysis seems a little wishy-washy to me. Like many others, we'll have to see what the Mueller report actually shows... if we get to see it. As a matter of fact, we're already seeing it in all of the indictments that have been brought forward in this whole crazy debacle. In the end any kind of report will likely not change the minds of either side of the trump spectrum. I and millions of others will always believe that he is a scumball and not worthy of the presidency of the United States. His sycophant minions will believe that he was sent by God to save America from liberals. You suggest that if the grimy elements of the Steele dossier are true then that would be a legitimate call for impeachment. It seems we have enough reason now to remove him from office. His lies alone could each be viewed as worthy of impeachment. Tarnished with him forever will be the republicans who hitched their wagon to his awfulness. Hopefully, the republican electorate will wake up and see how they have been taken for granted and for fools. The whole situation is pathetic and getting scarier by the day.
1
I am amused with Mr. Douthat’s “nothing to see here folks” column. Mr. Cohen’s testimony is not the final word on this very complex and convoluted mess. Keep in mind that Cohen might well be fearful of Russian retribution.
5
There’s was conspiracy, collusion and/or collaboration. Trump Tower meeting and changing the language of the GOP convention to be more favorable to Russia are evidence of that. From there you have all the obstruction evidence and Trump’s ridiculous infatuation of Putin. I don’t think you have to a conspiracy signed in blood with a secret handshake to have committed criminal acts with Russia. The being played for a Patsy defense is not a strong defense.
2
What are you going to believe?
Ross Douthat's prose or your lying eyes and ears?
Did you see President Trump fire FBI Director Comey and then hear Trump himself say in the Holt interview Comey's firing was to reduce the pressure of the Russian investigation?
Did you see the chummy meeting of President Trump with the Russian Foreign Minister in the White House shortly after the Comey firing, and did you read reports that Trump told the Russians he fired Comey to escape the pressure of the FBI's Russia probe?
Are you agnostic about the evidence of your own eyes and ears?
Ross is agnostic.
6
I still want to know what happened between Trump and Putin in Munich and why Trump did not allow American reporters to be present when he and Kim met. Why the secrecy? Why Trump's humiliating posture? Why?
2
Unfortunately, Mr. Douthat, you're the only "agnostic" at the NYTimes. That said, the likelihood of the Russian dossier ever being credible is quite low, as you conveniently neglect to mention that the Russian dossier and Steele were paid by the DNC.
2
By raising the Steele dossier Douthat waves a big fat red herring. The Steele dossier didn't say, for example, that Paul Manafort met secretly with his Russian government cutout Kilimnik at the height of the 2016 campaign to hand over proprietary polling data, and then lied about it, lied about his lies, and then lies about those lies. It doesn't say that Trump dictated a memo lying about his son's meeting with another Russian cutout in Trump Tower, and using the bogus alibi--the meeting was about "adoptions"--that Putin himself used, and who by the way had just met privately with Trump the night before.
Etc etc.
Douthat is in effect saying, "Hey if you look over there at the Steele Dossier there's not conclusive evidence of Trump's guilt." But if you look at Mueller's sentencing memos, at what's come out in the Times and the Post, if you follow Marcy Wheeler at Emptywheel, you see that Douthat is whistling past the graveyard in which the Republican Party is soon, please God, to be buried.
5
RE: Steel Dossier claim Cohen met GRU agents in Prague.
Somebody connected to Trump went to Prague — just not Cohen.
2
Note to Mr. Douthat. Many of us have moved on. The despicable semi legal behavior of Trump and his campaign during the election including the totally provable payment of hush money to a pornstar with the intent of affecting the outcome of the election seems like small potatoes now. We have a reasonable hope of seeing a total takedown of the Trump empire including the the entire corrupt family and the confiscation of its assets. The current POTUS is the head of criminal enterprise and now we won't be happy with anything other than his eventual arrest and conviction for fraud and tax evasion. The Steele dossier seems like child's play now.
Let's just say that I prefer to believe Steele, a trusted British intelligence agent with a long history of cooperation with our own intelligence agencies, over the denials of Trump, a serial liar. The more he says no collusion the more I believe there was collusion.
4
Christopher Steele, the former MI6 agent was paid, first by Republicans, then by Democrats. He was chosen because they recognized that he was the most capable person to know and interrogate Russians who knew about Trump connections. If his employers didn’t want the truth, they wouldn’t have hired him; they could have just made up convenient lies, like Karl Rove.
Steele, from years of close cooperation with America, felt loyalty and affection to us. He was so disturbed by what he discovered about Trump and Russia that he consulted the recent head of MI6 - the UK’s top spy. Then he went to the FBI and to Congress. But the Republicans, more loyal to their primary voters than to our security, then and now choose to smear him.
There is only one person in charge of thousands of nuclear missiles ready to target your home town, Vladimir Putin - who has threatened to use them to destroy us. From this information and from his words and actions, Donald Trump, a psychopath who feels no loyalty to anyone but himself, gives every indication that he is in alliance with Putin and against America.
2
None of this is that hard.
His campaign leaders and hangers on were almost all and to a man world class grifters and bagmen. Even if Don maybe didn't expect to win these guys would sell their mothers to come out on the right side of a scrape so you, know anything goes.
Coordinate with Wiki Leaks to harm Clinton? Sure. Whether these fools knew or not that Assange and his cronies were being actively used as a Russian asset is immaterial.
Meanwhile the Russian stooges in the campaign (Manafort, Flynn, Page, Papdopoulous, Gates) were busily lining their pockets arranging a quid pro quo to lift sanctions in exchange for help, influence, whatever. If Trump was elected, the Russians could count on all manner of help with thorny items, sanctions most among them.
Against this backdrop it's increasingly credible that the NRA laundered Russian money for GOP campaign contributions. Their spending on Trump's campaign and for the GOP in 2016 outstripped any previous expenditures by magnitudes (reportedly +$100MM from the previous year). Mere months later, they would cry being the verge of bankruptcy over a NY insurance case. Even with the benefit of the doubt, how can an org so perilously close to ceasing to exist spend almost $420MM on an election cycle?
Add in Kushner trying to set up his slimy, undetectable, unmonitored back channels.
Don himself giving comfort and a wide berth to American racists, buttressed by the Russian troll operation.
Divide and conquer.
2
The most likely scenario is that Russian agents hacked Podesta’s account and gave the emails to Julian Assange to publish.
Assange is like Ben Kingsly’s character in “Sneakers” - he just believes there are “too many secrets.”
There’s no reason to believe Trump was in on any of this, except that he may have had information from Assange.
2
So a conservative columnist wants to believe that Mueller will find no evidence of collusion because Michael Cohen said that he could not corroborate the Steele dossier but still had his suspicions. It’s funny how desperate Republicans are to predict this outcome when there is even the faintest glimmer of hope. Let’s review a little of what we the public know at this point.
The email to Don jr to set up a meeting in Trump Tower with Russians as part of the Russian government’s efforts to get Trump elected. The secret communication channel attempted to be set up in the Russian embassy to avoid surveillance. All the lies about contact with Russians and their efforts for lifting of sanctions.
How about Trump and his behavior in Helsinki, his slumped posture and defeated facial expressions after his private meeting with Putin, where no one but the translator was allowed in and the transcript was withheld by Trump. Think about how unhinged Trump has been over the Mueller investigation. Remember his oh so friendly meeting in the Oval Office with Lavrov and Kislyak bragging how his firing of Comey had taken the pressure off the Russian witch hunt. There is so much we have learned but it is nothing compared to what Mueller knows
So this columnist is happy that Michael Cohen only revealed probable bank and insurance fraud, tax evasion and campaign finance violations as well as a history of mob like behavior. Boy, what a relief that must be.
No Collusion!
6
Douthat is desperate to avoid the obvious. What he calls caution is willful blindness. So, the dossier was Russian disinformation designed to damage Trump, a candidate they were supporting? Makes no sense. And Christopher Steele is not a dupe. Nowhere in your article do you bother to mention his impressive resume and his long record of reliability and knowledge of Russia. Are we to believe mythical anti-Trump Russians, who have manifested nowhere else, fooled Steele but they can't fool dumb-as-sand Jim Jordan? Please. Nobody is copping to collusion? Well, maybe instead of a nothing-burger, which seems unlikely, it is a Super Huge Mac? What if Flynn, Cohen, Trump, Jr, Je-Vanka and Manafort are in up to their elbows in the sort of activity that got the Rosenbergs fried? Something is making them all lie to the FBI, despite the obvious dangers, rather than tell the awful truth. Some things are worse than life in prison. Not to mention the Russians and their special umbrellas.
3
If Trump and the people who worked on his campaign are innocent, why have so many of them provably lied their butts off? Some of them are even going to prison for it.
Why did Trump, on Air Force One, create a phony explanation for the Trump Tower meeting between the Russians and Don Jr., Manafort and Kushner? Why did Trump's lawyers participate in crafting Michael Cohen's original perjurious Congressional testimony? Why did Trump and his kids falsely deny that negotiations for Trump Tower Moscow continued through 2016? (Ross Douthat seems unaware that the deal-making stopped only when the media got wind of it.) Why did Trump, as he admitted, fire James Comey to relieve himself of "the Russia thing"?
Trump attempted to stymie the Russia investigation as soon as it started. Why? Why was he so furious that Jeff Sessions recused himself? Why has Trump so desperately been trying to obstruct and discredit Mueller?
Something stinks to high heaven here. Trump is ignorant, but he possesses a feral cunning. And he obviously has much to cover up.
When Trump accepted the most powerful, high-profile position in the world, with all its perks, he opened himself up to scrutiny. The Russia investigation has exposed a Pandora's box of dirty deeds that can and should be investigated.
4
You might be right. I have always thought that the more obvious and provable of Trump's felonies involve fraud, a set of crimes that should be pursued by US and state-!evel prosecutors in Manhattan and Brooklyn. I worry that, if the Mueller reprt lets Trump off the hook, this will deflate Trump's opponents and make him even more arrogant and unhinged.
1
The ineptitude defense? Really?
5
Well...this is quite an argument in defense of Mr. Trump. Wannabes? Fools? With all due respect, this essay of sorts is straight from the Republican play-book of how to be civil, politically correct, yet deceptive and "spin-worthy." Frankly, I am not an "agnostic." I'm a believer if you will, not a fanatical one, just one with, hopefully, an unclouded and unbiased mind. There is so much more than the infamous dossier to consider. In fact, if one removes it from the equation, it need not, indeed will not, be missed. After all the heinous revelations re Trump Inc before, during, and post-campaign, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that this fraudulent "American" will get his due. It may not be while he is president for (only) the next two years. And perhaps that defining word "intention" will remain elusive. But we are not naive, and above all we are not fools. The dots are being connected with a black marker pen. The picture that emerges is that of a guilty, sneering, Donald Trump.
3
The Republican (Rethuglicon) party is absolutely bankrupt. It has been aiding and abetting treasonous actions by trump from the git-go. And it hasn't hit bottom.
Your latest column, Mr. Douthat, is just another attempt to quibble and split hairs on this raging dumpster fire of a presidency.
Treason is what we are witnessing almost every day. Your Conservative/Republican/Rethuglicon point of view is going to inevitably be thrown into this dumpster fire, where it belongs.
2
What drug is in the water there at The Times that induces a calm so numb that Douthat can say tranquilly that "If Mueller could prove that something like that happened, impeachment would be inevitable, and resignation or removal reasonably likely"?
Did the paper see anything that happened this week at CPAC? The GOP is a failed state. Republicans in Congress have folded in defeat to Trumpism and betrayed their oaths. Conservatism is a burned out shell.
Trumpists are waiting for permission to open fire, literally. There isn't a standard of "proof" that would change their minds. Trumpism says that anything Trump says is inherently above empirical argument, and so above proof. Trumpists don't care about rule of law or the Constitution. They don't need Trump to look decent or moral. They want him to look hostile, nihilistic, and vengeful. They want him to lie because Trump's lies mirror their perfect contempt for the empirical society that has left them and their backwards willful stupidity behind. They will look right at every exhibit, every argument, and their own duty as citizens, and set fire to it all.
They want bloodshed.
The Times still covers this as though it's just unusual politics. It's not. This is a war.
3
Trump does nothing if it does not help him no matter the costs to the United States.
From the time of the Republican Convention until now Trump has done every thing he could to help Putin from stating Russia had nothing to do with influencing the 2018 election to destabilizing NATO.
Putin has a hook into Trump be it financial or sexual. I prefer the former for Trump has escaped sexual scandals that would have destroyed former presidents.
But time will tell. Either Mueller or the House intelligence committee will tell us what really happened.
1
More than two years of revelations, prosecution, indictments and cozying up to his buddy in the Kremlin in plain sight and all this writer can come come with is the obscure Steele Dossier and his personal agnosticism? Conservative opinion pieces even by self-proclaimed Trump critics can be lessons in the art of hypocrisy and contortion.
1
Why all the lying about Russia if it is so innocent? There has been too much lying on this, by a cadre of Trump associates and Trump himself. The corrupt relationship may not be proved in a court of law, but there is too much smoke.
2
Oh. So Trump should go free on the basis of greed and incompetence. Great defense Ross. A shining moment for the GOP.
2
I agree with Douthat's conclusion for once. Trump and his cronies would have liked to get into bed with the Russians but the relationship was never consummated. So, we have monumental incompetence, amorality, and dishonesty instead of hard evidence of collusion. Republicans in Congress will never dare to vote for impeachment and risk alienating Trump's base. Conclusion: We're stuck with a sneering, lying, incompetent, amoral president until at least January 2021. God help us all.
1
Unfortunately, I am concerned that Ross has a point here. Trump will get away with "pedestrian malfeasance" of things like violating the emoluments clause, financial conflicts of interest, and generally lying about everything. We all know, with certainty, that he is guilty of all such things. But he continues to receive strong support from his base and the Republican party.
The only thing that can bring him down is black and white absolute proof of "high crimes" such as treason or obstruction of justice. That's the only way I see him loosing GOP and base support. The worst charges against Trump and company are going to be very difficult to prove beyond any doubt. We all know that Trump and company are very bad eggs. I fear that we will never see the documented proof needed to clean the lot of them out of DC.
104
@Mr. SeaMonkey
Am I missing something? I see Trump committing high crimes and treason all the time. The right people (GOP Senators) do not seem to notice, or care, or perhaps they fear him too much to make the case. The criteria for proof of crimes is not "beyond all doubt." It is beyond "a REASONABLE doubt." Anyone who has ever served on a jury has been explained the difference. Those who think Trump has not been betraying his office and abusing his power have let go of all reason, in my opinion. We have video tape of him telling Russians that he stopped the investigation by firing Comey. Only Russian press was allowed, of course, but they blew his cover. He meets without U.S. witnesses, secretly, with Putin then defends whatever he says. He tries to give Putin what he wants, and caves to Kim on war games in South Korea. He steals from the U.S. Treasury by charging his Secret Service Agents for their rooms and golf carts a Mara Lago, and pulls in bundles of money at his Hotel in D.C. from people wanting his favors. What will it take? Do you feel safe that he would handle things well in case of a nuclear attack on our country? (He wants to sell nukes to the Saudis!) Would you blame our Nato allies if they said tough luck to him, and us, in the event of war against us? Bumbling by the Commander-in-Chief may be just as dangerous as organized, ego-driven madness. Giving up on trying to get rid of this travesty of an administration is not an option.
24
@Barbara I agree with you, but I'm afraid that even rock-solid proof of Trump's malfeasance would not convince his sycophantic supporters to abandon him or call for his ouster. They're happy that Trump is "owning the libs" every day, and stacking the court system with sympathetic judges, and they won't be shaken from that position even by hard evidence. They'll simply deny it or try to impugn the sources, just as they'll claim massive fraud in 2020 if Trump loses the election, no matter the margin. That's the result of untethering oneself from reality. It's a fine mess we're in, here.
27
@Mr. SeaMonkey, If obstruction of justice is one of the prerequisites, that “high crime” certainly seems provable. Also an abundance of “misdemeanors.”
10
Consider this, maybe all the lying about Russia from Trump's close associates is all part of a typical shell game. In other words don't look under the shell that is hiding all of Trump's illegal financial dealings, but instead look under the shell that is hiding Trump's conspiracy with the Russians. The real crimes are being protected by all the lies and all the Trump people being indicted, while the people's focus is on collusion and a conspiracy that never actually took place. Trump knew what the Russians were doing to influence our election but he protected himself from involvement in it. Plausible denial is a common tactic by criminal con artists like Trump. That's what this cynic cautiously expects.
2
we know that the Steele dossier was not the reason for the investigations into the Trump campaign, so why should I bother reading an op-ed predicated on a falsehood?
6
If Mueller's report exonerates Trump, no matter how ugly it appears, I look for Trump to cozy up to Russia even more. He'll use the exoneration as cover and say his actions are standard diplomacy, realpolitik. Then the real danger begins.
2
I am not surprised at all that Douthat, even though he has mildly protested Trump's actions at times, defends Trump against allegations of collusion with Russia. I am surprised, though, that Douthart dares to call himself an "agnostic" when his dogma - from denying women's reproductive rights to anti-papal rants - is visible for all to see.
4
Much depends on whether Cohen was as completely in the loop as he wants us to believe, or whether instead he was a second-stringer who was left out of the bigger discussions. If the latter, his ignorance of the Russian relationship details might simply mean that Trump and his inner circle were keeping that sensitive conversation strictly to themselves.
Cohen's rejection for a White House role plus his early showing of puppy dog loyalty, suddenly followed an embrace of snitch status, suggest a peripheral player who saw himself being set up to take the fall for actions beyond the scope of his involvement. The heavy-handed legal enforcer is only a half-step up the ladder from bouncer or bodyguard. That he was referred to the NY Southern District for prosecution establishes that Mueller understood Cohen to be more valuable in the context of investigating the Trump Organization as a criminal enterprise than for his knowledge of the Russian connection.
2
And don’t ever forget, Alpha bank server in rump tower. Who put it there, who took it out, what was it transmitting?
2
All the more reason the FBI must be held accountable for chasing this whole affair down a rabbit hole. Going forward it set a very dangerous precedent.
A this point I question whether or not Russia was the source. Simpson plead the fifth, that would be ground zero.
2
There has been a sleight of hand trick played here...
The Steele dossier did not precipitate the investigation and the validity of the investigaqtion is not dependent on it
It was George Papadapolous' (Trump campaign official) bragging about Russians having incriminating information about Hillary Clinton in the form of hacked emails (well before it was revealed that the DNC was hacked)
And it was Trump's firing of Comey and his admission to both Lester Holt and the Russian Ambassador that the firing was motivated in part by Trump wanting to end any investigations into Russia's interference
Collusion may or may not be 100% provable....but even at this juncture one can make an iron-clad case for obstruction of justice and a circumstantial case for conspiracy to commit fraud against the US with a foreign entity
6
I don’t often agree with Douhat but these have been my thoughts all along.
1
How easy it is for Ross argue for the best possible result for Republican Trump, based on Cohen's limited, public testimony that excluded discussion of the Russiagate probe. Ross claims to not support Trump, but his columns always belie his real feelings and intentions.
5
So you're saying a crime isn't a crime unless it works.
I can walk into a bank with a gun and a bad attitude, but unless I walk out with the cash no harm no foul.
The Trumpers did everything they could to break the law, and had inent to break the law, but the fact they were to dense to pull it off means they didn't break the law.
Nice legal precedent.
6
Trump in his statements gloried in the help Russia gave to him during his election campaign and and continued during that campaign to seek a Russian hotel deal. Manaford, Trump Jr., Kushner his son in law and others met with Russian agents during the campaign and I am sure the subjects of conversation were not about the weather.
Like Cohen's assumption that he needed to lie to keep his job, those around Trump would do anything including treason to win the election. Trump constantly claims he is not guilty of collusion and that remains to be seen, but it is obvious that the culture of lies, corruption and treason emanated from one place, Donald Trump.
2
The October 2015 letter of intent signed by both Trump and the Russian development company shows that the Steele raw intel was dead on.
The Steele dossier has always been a bigger deal among Trump apologists than critics; there's long been an implication on the right that disproving the dossier exonerates Trump. The dossier has always been something of a straw man.
Never forget that the FBI opened its counterintelligence investigation before it had possession of the dossier, not because of it as Republicans so frequently and wrongly claim. Think "Papadopoulos," not "Steele."
Insiders say the dossier broadly corroborates information the FBI had uncovered independently in its own investigation, but it in no sense drove the investigation.
And as you said, experts, including Steele himself, always understood the dossier to be "raw" intelligence. Steele has said from the beginning he expected it would turn out to be around 80 percent correct. So Cohen's not going to Prague falls in the expected 20 percent.
Perhaps we are asking too much if we want the Trump/Russia relationship to look like a well-run conspiracy. We should know by now that nothing Trump does, in business or anything else, is well-run.
We already have a wealth of information in the public domain that would utterly doom any other politician, especially one named Clinton. Trump thoroughly reeks of lawlessness and corruption, with plenty of eagerness to cooperate (both in business and politically, while lying about all of it) with Russia thrown in.
It's a sorry commentary on the times in which we live that none of that may make a difference.
4
The purpose of the Mueller Report was to find grounds to exonerate Hilliary Clinton for running the worst and the most expensive campaign in Presidential History. Now that we will soon know that Trump didn't have help from the Russians, we must now conclude that Clinton WAS the worst candidate ever to run for high public office having lost to someone who was even worse than her. Therefore, America wasn't cheated, it got what it deserved. Feel better now?
2
Impeachment is based on abuse of power.
Things that Trump and his campaign did before Trump got elected would not be such abuse, though they could be treasonous and criminal.
Abuse of Presidential power includes obstruction of justice.
As President, Trump told Cohen, according to Cohen now, to lie to Congress about paying off the women Trump had affairs with.
That is obstruction of justice, as President, an abuse of Presidential power, and impeachable.
So, too, will be the firing of Comey and Flynn.
1
Please consult your nearest lawyer.
This describes both attempt and conspiracy:
"Trump and his circle weren’t collaborators but fools and wannabes, who might have been willing to play games with spies and hackers"
Manafort and Jr. agreed to meet representatives of the Russian government in a joint effort to damage Clinton's candidacy (conspiracy to defraud the US), but came away empty handed (attempt to defraud the United States).
1
"As we await the final verdict on President Clinton's affair with Monica Lewinsky, let's take a moment to look back on how this all began - with the Whitewater investigation. And forget anything that came to light as a result of it."
Something Douthat never said.
2
Speculate, speculate and oh did I say speculate? Mr Douthat makes a metaphor from chess, endgame, applicable to Trump's current dilemma. One might point out that collectively the Russian culture are masters of chess, one realizes they understand that chess is game of five moves ahead. Unfortunately, American political gamers see maybe two or three moves down the road. Who do you think is going to "win"? Trump is notoriously thin in strategic and tactical perception. He probably does not even know that he has been played. Does this make him innocent? He seems to believe this and conveys his innocence to his national public which believes his blather. Does he "win"? Who will get the prize at the end of this game? Let's speculate, and in the meantime we can sell a lot of soap.
I agree with this article. Even as a lifelong voter for Democrats (although independent) I have been convinced from the beginning of this Russian Trump agenda that it was another cockeyed concoction of Hillary's handlers who have been doing that since Bush Sr. brought them directly into the White House.
I think their mindset has ruled both Clintons and the pitifully ineffective performance of Obama. You might say that's a conspiracy theory, but call it what you may, I'm looking at the results, not theories.
Don't forget, 2016 had 2 surprising renegades, Sanders and Trump. Trump was ignored as too ignorant to stand a chance. Sanders was scuttled by the DNC which Hillary owned lock, stock and barrel.
Note that the intelligent Tulsi Gabbard who left the DNC Board to back Sanders and Sanders himself stand little or no chance of becoming the Democrat's candidate for 2020 for she still fully controls the party DNC and establishment. If nothing else, she has a long memory, long claws and, a very vengeful personality. (If in doubt, ask Julian Assange.)
1
Up until late on election day everyone in the world took for granted that Hillary Clinton would be the winner. This paper had its major headline already prepared for printing (MADAME PRESIDENT). When Russiagate then emerged as a poor excuse for the defeat, Henry Kissinger made the obvious observation: what would the Russian leaders benefit from creating frictions with the upcoming US president by useless interference to promote her defeated opponent?
Noam Chomsky commented on the hysteria about Russian interference by saying that "half of the world is cracking up in laughter", meaning both that such hypothetical actions could not in any case have played a significant role, and that US' own meddling in other countries' affairs is beyond all comparison.
I belong to that half of the world, but Swedish media is almost as obsessed with Russophobia as any in the US. The brain-dead buildup of tensions by the West against Russia may lead to the final war, killing the last human being.
I have stopped laughing.
3
Douthat, like so many others, forgets one thing: Cohen's testimony was not about Russia collusion or other matters under investigation.
That anyone should expect his testimony would reveal anything beyond a tidbit is odd, we were told beforehand it wouldn't be covered in the testimony, and that there were two other days of closed-door testimony (and now another scheduled for next week.)
So the presumption that the public testimony would reveal anything that moved the needle here is just plain silly.
What I want to know is how Republicans are acting when the camera's not there? Do they actually ask real questions to get real information, or do they continue the game of avoiding irritating Trump's base voters?
3
It should not require proof of crimes for the American people to rid themselves of this lying, self aggrandizing charlatan, although I believe obstruction of justice by Trump is beyond evident, even if collusion cannot be proven beyond a shadow of a doubt. How about simply proof of all of his assaults on the truth, the constitution and the free press? We have all seen and heard these things for ourselves.
1
Getting Russia's attention to no practical end involved an offer by the Trump Organization to give Putin a $50 million condo in Trump Tower Moscow. This would insure that other oligarchs who want to be in Putin's circle, would buy into the building. This offer may come under the Foriegn Corrupt Pratices Act which prohibits bribing of a foreign government, a law Trump has criticized long before becoming president.
3
Ross, you need to stop watching FoxNoise and reading the Washington Times, the Drudge Report, or listening to Ben Shapiro. Even the laziest assembly of dates on the calendar in 2016 builds a strong circumstantial case of Trump being deeply involved in Russian interference in the election. Also, as other commentators have noted, almost everyone in Trump's orbit, including him, lied about their contacts with the Russians, and repeatedly. Why? Why are they all lying? A person who is lying is usually trying to hide something. What was it?
2
How can Ross possibly leave out the primary fact about the Steele dossier — that it was supplied by the Clinton campaign’s opposition research contractor Fusion GPS and never amounted to legitimate information?
1
"the increasing likelihood is that the Steele dossier was, in fact, as Trump’s defenders have long described it — a narrative primarily grounded in Russian disinformation." And Mr Douthat's justification for this sweeping generalisation is: basically his intuition. Unfortunately that isn't proof. Who should we believe? A NYT opinion writer's intuition or the ex head of the Russia desk of MI 6? I know who my money would be on. So far, despite the noise from the media and Trump's supporters the Steele dossier has, actually, been on the money
Incompetence is not a defense. That The Donald desired and expected a conspiracy, even encouraged his rag-tag team to create one is pretty obvious. As more than a few people, except Douthat, have observed most of the actual illegal stuff, including obstruction (a crime Douthat appears not to have heard of) have taken place in plain sight through the continual flow of tweets, broadside insults and threats, veiled offers of pardons, and so forth. Those are the crime scene. Which in itself is pretty damning: if there was no conspiracy or desire thereof; why threaten and hide? It seems pretty clear that Trump has dedicated himself to obstructing an investigation of which he is very afraid. Whether there was or is an actual conspiracy the evidence shows that Trump wanted there to be and is obfuscating as hard as he can to make sure no one notices that he was more than willing to subvert the election as he is to destroy decades of alliances.
It is hard to expect a formal plan from a narcissist and sociopath; desire rules with no limits.
1
Mr. Douthat's column reflects the skepticism about the whole Trump/Russia hysteria that most intelligent, and non-blindly-partisans have believed from the beginning.
Proof that even the blind partisans are beginning to see that the Steele dossier was simply part of the usual Hillary/Sidney Blumenthal dirty trick playbook and a convenient rationale for why she lost is that those partisans are now focused on other ways to bring down the Orange Man.
Aren't we owed an apology from all those who salivated over the thought of overthrowing Trump on the basis of an opponent's political campaign memo (which itself probably involved collaboration with foreign agents)? Of course not. We'll just get another air-brushing of history and a demand for further investigations.
Perhaps. But that still leaves us with a Russian operation that weighed in on an election with razor thin margins in decisive states. And a would-be authoritarian President who is gaga over Putin and, little doubt, hoping for his help again in 2020.
@RRI -- "an election with razor thin margins in decisive states"
There is no evidence that Russian efforts had even the slightest effect in those specific places.
However, there is a lot of evidence that Hillary failed to campaign in them, while Trump made a major last minute campaign push in them.
@RRI
Don't forget, this was after the Trump campaign handed their internal polling data straight to Russia to help in their propaganda efforts.
"No contact with Russians... maybe some contact with Russians, but no collusion... yes there was collusion, but that isn't a crime... yes 'conspiracy to defraud' is a crime, but there is no absolute proof that our helping the Russians tamper with the election actually worked, so how can it be a crime... etc..."
Tax evasion brought down Al Capone. If the same thing happens to Trump, I'm OK with that.
1
Yes, the 'left' will be in exactly the same place as the GOP has been and still is regarding HRC. 8 Benghazi hearings plus FBI and the GOP still can't 'lock her up' and they are still bitter about it. They still dream of more investigations of HRC.
Is this the fate of those who believe in Russiagate? Will the Democrats be holding investigations 4 years from now still looking for the 'truth'? Still disappointed and bitter?
I think to our country's great harm that that is exactly where we all will be. In our camps, convinced and frothing at the mouth in the face of a truth elusive.
Why is it in America today, especially when applied to the 1%, our system of justice can not answer questions definitely? Why does the power of money make 'proof beyond a reasonable doubt' easy for the rich but impossible for the poor?
Why can't the FBI, CIA, whoever ever find out exactly what happened? Why is there 'doubt' when a man is shot in the back in America?
Cohen will go to jail because he is not rich enough. Trump will never go to jail because he is rich. Neither will HRC. It's not red vs. blue - that just muddies the waters - it's the 1% vs. the rest of us.
3
@Elizabeth
Trump is rapidly running out of senior campaign officials not currently indicted, convicted, or serving time in jail. Pretty much he and his family are all that's left.
Unlike the Clintons who have been investigated literally for DECADES without so much as an expired parking ticket between them (it took 6 YEARS and a $70 million budget to catch Bill Clinton in a consensual affair), the SDNY has opened up over a DOZEN criminal investigations of Trump, his family, his business, his foundation, and his inauguration committee. Trump himself has been listed as an unindicted co-conspirator in the conviction of Michael Cohen who testified that it was Trump who ordered him to commit felonies.
These aren't political theater trials like the 8 Bengazi hearings were... these are the real thing. Neither Clinton has EVER been the subject of an actual criminal investigation, so claiming that HRC "got off" because she's rich is nonsense. Rich people get convicted all the time (see Bernie Madoff, Denny Hastert & Tom Delay)... Neither Clinton was convicted because despite DECADES of looking, no one has ever found an actual crime that they've committed.
Scratch the surface of Trump and criminality oozes right out.
Read the comments Ross. The resistance is not going to accept the notion(s) 1) that Mueller can't come up with something actionable on the collusion front and 2) that Mueller can't come up with something actionable on obstruction of justice despite the fact that his investigation will have proceeded unhampered from start to finish.
The mainstream media have figured this out and are quietly backing away from their longtime suggestions that Mueller's investigation would spell an end to Trump's presidency. The new hope is that the Southern District will come up with something actionable from before he ran for president. Any port in a storm!
Yawn. The Dems in the house will impeach him even if the only "charge" they can make is that he's a disgusting louse (a core factoid on which many of his supporters might well agree). Bottom line is they preferred him to the other louse. Equally predictably, the Rs in the Senate (and possibly some Ds as well) will not oust him for the simple reason that being a disgusting louse is not a high crime or misdemeanor.
1
Ross is a loyal Repub and is hanging his hat on “the dossier”, but even if there were no dossier think about this for a second. Trump believed Putin and MBS when his intelligence clearly said otherwise. He just stood by Kim with the preposterous notion that Otto Warmbier’s death wasn’t known by him. Trump made up a fake national emergency for a wall he couldn’t get through Congress. Trump has lied more than 8,000 times since his election. We’ll wait to see on Mueller but Ross, don’t get too excited about Trump being exonerated on Russiagate. There’s plenty more law breaking and illegality.
1
Trump-haters seem to prefer to change direction rather than to backpedal.
1
In stepping back and looking at the big picture, based on all the information that is now public, without need to wait for the Muller report, some things are so extremely probable that it's impossible not to believe them to be true;
at a minimum: Russian intelligence spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on a media campaign intended to assist the Trump campaign and did so in coordination with members of the Trump campaign.
For me that's enough. It should be enough for all of us. Can I say Trump himself participated in it? no I can't; perhaps the "I'm too stupid defense" works in this instance. Can I say it changed the outcome of the election? no I can't, although it might have. I don't think we need to prove these last two things to demand impeachment.
@PNBlanco -- "at a minimum: Russian intelligence spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on a media campaign"
Then that is nothing. Less than a drop in the bucket.
Cohen didn’t offer any evidence about money laundering either. So that must mean trimp’s business practices were all above board?
@Joseph F. Panzica
After Alan Weiselberg testifies (next week?) we'll probably know more.
Remember... Michael was the fixer, Alan was the money man, and he's been a cooperating witness for the SDNY for MONTHS now.
Slowly the rancid onion is peeled back...
"That’s because Cohen’s testimony dovetailed with the always-more-plausible narrative in which Trump and his circle weren’t collaborators but fools and wannabes, who might have been willing to play games with spies and hackers, but who mostly just bumbled around haplessly on the sidelines."
If you're privy to the planning (on the "sidelines", as you say) a proposed bank robbery, even if it fails Mr Douthat and do nothing, it doesn't absolve you of responsibility...
Me thinks he doth protest too much...if he is innocent, why does he continue to repeat “NO COLLUSION, WITCH HUNT”...his actions are not those of an innocent man.
Also, after watching this man in action for more than 2 years, does anyone truly believe he is capable of making billions of dollars legally?
2
@Kevin -- Why does he keep saying he's not guilty? That alone is proof he is guilty.
Really?
It may never be proven that Donald Trump conspired with the Russians. It’s altogether possible, however, that Trump and his advisors were grossly incompetent while becoming intoxicated by their nascent power and proximity to world heavies like Putin.
As likely is the possibility that Trump’s cozying up to dictators like Putin, Kim and Xe was motivated by the greenfield development and financial opportunities their countries offered to the Trump Organization.
Since the truth has never mattered to Trump, and because he’s never had to pay a painful price for his prevarication, he may well have simply figured that he could outgame his opposition by doing what he’s always done best: lie.
I wish to know if Trump, the ersatz chief law enforcement officer for my country, has been involved in illegality. Obviously, it would be an absolute worst case scenario if the PARTICULAR illegality was high treason, but there’s a lot of crimes between innocence and treason. What Douthat strangely fails to consider (and what seemingly everyone in creation routinely glosses over) is that the Watergate break-in was one of a host of things for which Nixon was being both investigated and (had he not resigned) impeached.
100% honesty here... I don’t know what the confusion is about. Nixon obstructed justice. He hinted at pardons for potential witnesses against him. He abused his power. He lied to the nation about all sorts of important facts in his public statements (apparently, before I was born, presidents could be impeached for ceaseless lying). He dodged his taxes. He suborned perjury. Even if he really had nothing to do with the Watergate burglary itself, that would have been 1 charge cleared out of an avalanche of separate offenses and gross misconduct.
And Trump is so bad it’s like he made Nixon’s Impeachment articles his BUCKET LIST. No, he hasn’t hit them all, but he’s still got some time left, I guess. But to hear some people tell it, if he’s not the Manchuria candidate, we’re supposed to write him a “mulligan” on the rest.
Bottom line: Is Trump a law-abiding citizen? My bet is that he’s not, but Vegas won’t cover it at this point.
Thanks, Ross. I have longed for someone I trust to summarize what's been going on. No one trusts our sources of public information any more because, without exception, they (at best) spin absolutely everything they report and ofttimes report things that didn't happen at all, but maybe might have.
This melange of faux news truthiness pervades all outlets, from the radical blogs of evil doers to the vaunted pages of America's Newspaper of Record.
Mueller may one day supply the insider's guide to how to impeach Trump. The public outsider's guide has already been written by the orange-skinned, purple-eyed beast himself, a litany of which has been rehearsed thousands of times by hundreds of pundits near and far. So let the Impeachment begin, already! Even if the 40 percent would rise up in rebellion, it's time fo the 50 percent to say enough is enough. These fools have played us far too long.
Obviously there were some things that Cohen didn't know about. He never said that the accusations weren't true.
1
Any testimony coming from Michael Cohen is highly suspect. He lies and lies. He has lied to Congress in the past and there is no reason to believe his testimony this week was not lies. The truth is somewhere in between. Assuming he lied, the cancelled checks and other documents are for real. Why did'nt the Republicans just attack the credibility of Cohen who has none. Instead why did'nt they come out in strong support of President Trump? And Trump cannot be left of the hook because he was ignorant. It is a known fact now that campaign operatives very close to him were in contact with Russians or Russia via Ukraine all through the campaign. It was Trump's campaign and the buck stops with him. Whatever else is just noise.
My first reaction to reading this OP ED was to say that this was a fine example of someone whistling past the graveyard.
But upon reflection, it strikes me more as a hungry animal scavenging through a pile of garbage looking for food scraps.
Your best outcome is that he did not collude for years with the Russians, but only accepted their help when they approached him. Hardly an action that would merit him the Medal of Freedom.
Just more enabling.
1
So the Editorial Board’s valiant exposition of “Russia war on the West” ends not with a bang but with a Cold War spy machinations warm overs? How disappointing; on second thought, considering that the bang could have turned radioactive is a consolation.
1
so, is Ross Douthat setting up a straw man here (or maybe two, if you include Cohen's testimony)? The logic seems to be that because in RD's mind, the evidence via Cohen, doesn't cohere to the assertions of possibility in the Steele dossier, well then...trump is off the hook. Just ignore the absolute mountain of evidence in clear view, in the public domain, unearthed by either the press or prosecutorial teams. For a supposed "morally centered" man, RD seems oddly blind to obvious evil staring him in the face.
1
You may be right, though I suspect that Mueller has kept troves of SIGINT (emails, phone records) close to his vest, to be released in a flurry of sealed indictments.
But EVEN IF no direct evidence emerges of specific, explicit “Let’s conspire, Vlad!” communications, let’s be clear about what IS ALREADY KNOWN:
- Trump hired crooks, traitors and liars to senior positions in his business, campaign and administration.
- Trump and his family and surrogates had dozens of strange meetings with Russian agents and mob figures—and lied about them.
- Trump has attacked, threatened and/or fired those investigating or testifying about these crimes, while dangling pardons for co-conspirators.
Only in today’s post-morality, post-ethical GOP would that record be considered “innocent”. And you have played no small part in moving those goalposts, Mr. Douthat. Own it.
4
I believe Trump didn’t think he would win and I also believe that he will not give up his power in 2020. Trump is a small time grifter and so is Cohen and when Trump met Manafort he was in awe. I also believe Trump knew what was going on around him and like a mark he didn’t care or pay that much attention to the details he never expected to win and neither did all the hang on. So it comes down to that Russian thing again we all were duped.
Here Ross Douthat strenuously defends Donald Trump against a straw man, treating the Steele Dossier as if it were somehow central, or even relevant to the Mueller investigation.
4
If the entire intelligence community was on the case the Steele dossier isn’t the only piece of the puzzle. FISA warrants were issued in the summer of 2016. Foreign intelligence services were alarmed and notified ours about Trump’s acolytes and apparatchiks. Congress was advised of these goings on. Meanwhile Trump was lying to all of us saying he had no business in Russia. Russian troll farms were able to micro target key states to decrease Hillary’s turnout. Flynn and Manafort were clearly corrupt. Trump was parroting Putin talking points about NATO and Crimea. There is way more to learn about what happened beyond the Steele dossier.
1
Dream on, Douthat. Trump's into his eyeballs in Russian money, influence, and kompromat. Nothing, not one thing, in the Steele dossier has yet to be proven false.
1
Yeah well so what? As always throughout his entire life Trump has skated at the edge of the cliff and is often perceived by detractors to be well over the edge, suspended in a midair like the Roadrunner. He’s very adept at it. It’s most likely what makes him attractive to his base ... that he can and always has gotten away with it. So it may be with Russian collusion, so it may be with Stormy Daniels payoff, so it may be with with self dealing charity fraud, and so it may be with obstruction of justice to protect humself against all of these accusations (and more). At the end of the day the man is globally and domestically reviled by everyone except those who are either too stupid or too dark in their own hearts to believe that supporting this man is an act of soul destruction. Whatever happens in the legal and jusicial world, in the bigger world that is Trump’s legacy.
1
Another possibility: Trump was groomed by Putin on a more subtle, implicit level which took advantage of Trump’s narcissistic neediness. How else to explain Trump’s deference and submissiveness to Putin?
1
Ross like other Republicans, want to treat Trump like he is innocent until proven guilty in a court of law. When you have a constant stream of lies one question always persists except in the minds of Republicans, why were all the President's men lying and why is the President always lying? Some things are just so simple. We lie or we don't. We lie to cover up the truth. There is no in between. So if you are proposing an argument to support a liar you are only one thing - complicit. It would seem today that Republicans would rather be complicit with a traitor than acknowledge what common sense tells them. Common sense says if you lie to your wife, or wives, you can lie to anyone about anything. Trump does and has lied all of his life. So Republicans who tend to be driven by the pursuit of power play a game because they think the trade off of integrity for power is just fine because it enriches them. The fact they become soulless individuals is rationalized by the size of their bank accounts. After all, its just not a "few pieces of silver" we are talking about. So we get an ecosystem where Hannity lies, Limbaugh lies, and whole media companies have built businesses based upon lying in an attempt to polarize American society for profit. They have become rich at the expense of our country's future for which they will claim no accountability. Time to take the side of truth or deceit, for country or being a complicit traitor of our values and human decency. It matters, a lot.
3
The outcome cannot be judged by reference to the Steel report alone. Even if the pee-tape does not exist, there are other possibilities which seem already plausible and even more damaging to the country.
Suppose the President was selected by Russia because 1) he is beholden to them through their financing of his business, 2) he is therefore compliant to occasional instruction, and 3) he would likely an independent instigator of chaos, a distraction to focus attention of American first, Russia seldom.
This scenario would be a sufficient to merit all their effort, and yet would not rely upon direct collusion in the election: Trump could simply have been a passive benefactor. The important collusion would be since the election, and the evidence would be in the many policy decisions that have benefited Russia, disadvantaged our allies, and which came from the President's open but private interactions with Putin. The collaboration is ongoing and in plain sight - and we are being misdirected to the election to search for it there.
1
What's the point of trying to analyse "Russiagate" if you're not going to mention Helsinki? Go back and study the video of that press conference. Pay special attention to how both Trump and Putin walked to their podiums. Putin jauntily strode into the room, fairly skipping on his way to his microphone. Now look at Trump's body language. Shoulders slumped, expression sullen--he looks like a beaten man on his way to the gallows.
And then Trump proceeds to tell the world that he takes Putin's word about Russian meddling over the unanimous conclusions of our own intelligence community.
As Elijah Cummings might say, "Come on, now!"
Douthat: I don't see how anyone but a die-hard Trump supporter (fascist) could doubt that Putin has something on Trump. That was the essence of the Steele dossier.
When I first read about the dossier I started reading everything I could find on Russian collusion. The question I asked myself was: could Donald Trump, the Trump organization and even the Republican party be working for Russia? The short answer is yes. Trump has committed treason.
There enough evidence written by solid journalists to go beyond suggestion.
Putin uses foreign businesses, run by ex-KGB, in cooperation with the Russian mafia and other criminals around the world to do his bidding. Putin uses law firms, lobbyists and other agents to manipulate 2nd and 3rd hand. Donald Trump is one of his assets. Even Mitch McConnell, Jim Jordan, Mark Gaetz and Devin Nunes are in his grasp.
This is a vast criminal-nationalist enterprise with the strings leading back to the Kremlin.
1
Why is it that the system can reveal the fraud that was Trump University, but is unable to reveal all the crimes that Trump and friends continue to commit?
Of course, barely a penalty for the former fraud, because our corrupt system wants to ignore white collar crime. Maybe that is the real clue. We don’t want to go after white collar criminals. And the higher their power, the less we want to pursue them, no matter how consequential their actions.
So let the US Constitution lie in the trash heap. Instead, jail a guy who is selling a few ounces of weed. That will show our pretense of fighting crime.
1
It's not John le Carré. Donald J. Trump would have to have enough intelligence that he wouldn't have to hide his school grades and SAT scores (stable genius) to find place in a spy story. Just look at him and his administration. A bubbling fool with the worst taste in decor. A wanna be dictator, strong man, mafia don. He must be Putin's boys' dream to turn. Doesn't even have the ability to stay on task long enough to read an intelligence briefing. Don's level? TV, not even decent TV but Fox News. I can see the KGB threatening him by making to take away his McDonald's cheese burger. That would turn him in a flash. Take the simplest, lowest explanation possible. That is Trump all over.
2
Reading your column and the responses to it further convinces me that the Republic party is hopelessly corrupt, and that the Democratic Party, having gained a historic victory in the House, and with all legal and legislative tools at its disposal to begin ridding us of this blight called Trump, will, by allowing itself to be highjacked by the Far Left screamers, blow it again. 1968 ring a bell?
Typical Douthat. He may be right, but he also may be wrong! Then again, he may be right, but he also may be wrong....a lot of speculating that probably should be ignored until the Mueller Report is released (maybe) and beyond.
Two figures in this matter deserve to be heard before we dismiss the Steele dossier: Felix Sater, and Keith Schiller. Sater, of course, is set to appear before congress soon, but Schiller--Trump's bodyman and trusted confidante for years--has been mysteriously absent from discussions about his boss's dealings with Russia, Remember that Schiller was with Trump in Moscow when his golden frolics with Russian prostitutes was alleged to have happened. Could Schiller emerge as the witness who corroborates the dossier and proves that Trump is both a traitor and fool? We shall soon see.
Ross gives way too much weight to the dossier as forming the primary foundations of Russiagate. There are 100 other major threads to pull in this saga besides the four Ross chose to bring to the head.
1
You miss the whole point. On the Trump Tower meeting alone, Trump's campaign biggies including his family met to get Russian GOVERNMENT (as per the inviting email) help with Clinton compromat because Russia said it wanted Trump to win.
And, anyone who has worked with Trump (Bannon, Cohen and others) knows Don jr would not proceed with such a meeting w/o keeping his father fully informed.
Yes, it's possible to see that Trump and Putin did not sit down and plan out a whole campaign, but a conspiracy is also something you can walk into. Your buddy is robbing a bank and asks if you want to join in....you do, and you will be convicted as a conspirator/participant.
And then there are those back channels Trump wanted with Russia...Kushner, Betsy de Voss's brother. Think about it. Kushner was willing to accept Russian surveillance on any communications...just not by the US.
Then....follow the money.....just take both Trump boys at their word....they did not need US banks, they had Russian money. Maybe Trump was just 1/2 blackmailed 1/2 eager to continue the adulating campaign rallies? Maybe he just didn't think too far ahead......but participating in an offered conspiracy is still participation.
1
I don’t think I have ever read a generally more thoughtful set of comments in the Times. I share the view that the Steele dossier,raw intelligence from a pro, is a side issue. It’s clear that Paul Manafort, addicted to a wildly expensive and tacky lifestyle , took on the job of campaign manager pro bono at a time when he was in deep in the hole, and did everything he could to monetize his position with his Ukrainian gangster chums. The Trump defence — he hardly knew the man, who only worked for him briefly etc— is what he always does. (And his Republican enablers did the same thing with Cohen, describing him during the hearing as just another of Trump’s many many lawyers; the Times was much more on the money when Maggie Hagerman called him Trump’s ‘consigliere.’) The siege of the White House seems to be growing daily on a very wide front. (Nick Christof’s piece today on the hopelessly compromised Jared Kushner was a revelation.).Everything about Trump spells disaster— the rotten cabinet, the hidden tax returns (which Trump doesn’t want to reveal because then they will be audited), the massive conflicts of interest of the hotelier-President. My real question is what has happened to America when its president can declare that he and Kim Jong Un have “fallen in love.” That alone, Mueller apart, is disqualification from holding the highest office in the world.
3
Will we all be just a concerned about players in this scandal who are not Trump or on his campaign? We know who paid for the dossier at its completion, how she paid for it, and it is sleazy as anything Mueller has been combing through. We also know names now like McCabe, Strzok, Page, and Ohr. Comey and this inner circle feared that indicting HRC for obvious crimes would put them in a world of hurt if she won. They detest the actual election result, and acted on their insurance policy against it. We should expect Russian interference in our democracy, but those who actively attacked it from within did far more lasting damage.
2
The big problem comes with the standard of proof.
If you are going to hold it to the standards that we use to put people in jail, or perhaps put them to death, I submit that people have been convicted with less evidence than has already been released publicly.
If you are looking for a video in which Trump and Putin are directly and openly admitting to breaking laws, and doing so in a venue where there were many witnesses who can attest that the video is not doctored, then you aren't going to find that. Of course, we'd never convict another murderer if we held the legal system to those standards.
1
If a 'Watergate' incident happened in the 2016 with Russian assistance, "impeachment would be inevitable" according to Ross.
Have you met the Senate Republicans?
6
People forget, Ross, and so do you, that the Democrats have never (or rarely) asserted that this whole series of events surrounding Trump was all about impeachment. Most Democrats have just been open to wherever the investigation leads. Most Democrats have been agnostic on criminal corruption.
The investigation was to find out if there was corruption in the election, and whether the current administration had its underlings, already with several indictments and guilty pleas, undermine our election. If they did Trump's dirty work and if the Russians received assistance in 2016, then we have a serious problem.
And why can't Trump simply admit that it happened and something needs to be done to fix it? That is a troubling question Trump has darted, dodged and obfuscated on, which keeps this thing boiling. His indifference in the role of protecting our Constitution and country is perhaps the most troubling aspect and bespeaks of his potential involvement in it. We need to find out in the Mueller report.
16
The three out of four of the big possibilities laid out by the Steele Dossier are the most important with the Moscow real estate deal providing the motivation. You leave out that Roger Stone was arrested in a very public manner. Given all that we have seen, it would be unlikely that Mueller and Co would have done so without strong evidence to convict him at trial. Thus, you dismiss the role of the man who had links with both Guccifer and Wikileaks. He may not help Mueller but he will go to jail. Please count how many Trump campaign operatives pled or were convicted of felonies tied to the campaign. Like Cohen, how do you think have offered confidential testimony to reduce their sentences? Do you really believe that none will flip on Trump or his family? I bet several already have. The report will clearly link all this together to show Trump or at least Jared and Don Jr colluded with the Russians for the purposes of making money and winning the 2016 election. Congress will have a clear road map for it’s investigations.
3
There's the "letter of the law" and the "spirit of the law". I tend to agree with Ross. Mueller can only indict (and/or accuse Trump) based on the evidence that shows the violation of a federal statute. He may, in fact, not have enough evidence (in the same way that Comey didn't have enough to charge Hillary). But that doesn't mean that Trump and his people aren't shady characters. My concern is that whatever the result, this man may come out of this process emboldened as the media declares him "innocent". That's the risk we face.
8
I will accept Mr. Douthat's general assessment of the Steele dossier. He does, however, leave out an examination of possible business entanglements, with multiple Russians, closely tied to the Government. Mr. Trump's real weakness seems ever more likely to be illegalities in his business. Tax irregularities. Giant loans from a German bank with ties to Russian oligarchs, laundering money. Real estate deals with oligarchs, laundering money. Hundreds of millions of dollars, spent buying properties around the world, with no obvious source. One way or the other, the details of his business operations are going to see the light of day. Mr. Trump has been dealing fast and loose his whole life, and the odds of his keeping it hidden away, with reporters and prosecutors digging constantly, are getting slimmer all the time.
30
@Michael, you seem to know a lot about Trump's "possible business entanglements". You should contact Mr. Mueller, and do it quickly, before he wraps up his investigation and delivers a report.
1
Had the public learned that George Papadapolous had met with a Russian agent who told him that the Russians had damning emails BEFORE they learned of the Steele Dossier, the Steele Dossier would have assumed its rightful place - a compilation of rumors that merited follow up.
The most likely scenario is that Trump was using the campaign as an informercial to improve his brand. Look at all of the free air time he got. And he wanted Trump Tower Moscow. Putin saw an opportunity to coopt Trump. Trump played Putin along. And then Putin got serious.
Putin, the ex-KGB operative, knows that a good conspiracy requires that only a very few have all the details. The rest are privy to only those details they need to know in order to perform their functions. Cohen, Stone, Page, and the other characters are not part of the inner circle.
Hopefully, we will soon see. If Mueller’s report fails to remove every reasonable doubt that Trump is acting as an agent for Putin, the country will be in a dark Purgatory.
5
Wouldn't the conclusion of this opinion be a great scheme by Russia and Trump to skate free from there joint scheme to steal the presidency?
This would be the ultimate conn. One thing we know for sure is Russia, with the cooperation of Trump whether knowingly or not, is to be congratulated for bringing the United States down a peg or two from the view of the remainder of the world.
6
If Mueller only had what Douthat thinks he has on Trump's conspiracy with the Russians, this investigation would be history months ago. Instead, with obvious conspiracy by Stone and Manafort (the cigar room transfer of campaign polls or voter files to a Russian spy), No conspiracy counts are made against Americans only Russians. Even though there are maybe 40-50 more witnesses to hear from, and more indictments, maybe (maybe already filed but sealed), and need to keep the conspiracy facts confidential until the final takedown, Douthat is speculating, or wishing reality will go away.
5
There is no evidence of Russia-Trump collusion. Despite every dem operative and wannabe Woodward and Bernstein searching high and low for some evidence -- none has been produced. Nothing has been leaked even hinting of collusion and that is, given the state of DC, implausible.
Further, none of the proponents of the collusion theory have put forth a plausible reason as to why either side would collude with the other. There has been no evidence of a quid pro quo.
What there is evidence for is that at the highest levels of the FBI, the justice dept and the Obama administration was quite a bit of funny business aimed at undermining Trump's presidency & helping HRC win (or at least ensuring she wasn't indicted).
The left of course won't be satisfied with a clean bill of health from Mueller. They will continue to re-litigate the 2016 election -- even into 2021 if Trump is reelected.
The fundamental truth is that whatever the Russians may have done, it didn't shift votes. The ads on FB? In light of years of both candidates living in the public eye and zillions spent on campaign advertising by both sides and daily coverage of their campaigns, those pitiful ads could influence votes? Find some evidence. Ditto the leaked emails which may have been embarrassing but were hardly revelatory.
7
@Ralphie Trump's appointment of Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon, to be Secretary of State was collusion in plain sight. Putin and Exxon's massive extraction deal was in jeopardy because of U.S. sanctions. Tillerson was all the proof I needed. Notice how that episode has been quietly put on the shelf. Business as usual.
10
@Ralphie It is easiest to claim there is no evidence when you ignore the evidence of collusion. Ross Douthat showed that's done.
Trump has thus far managed to keep his financials private. More: he has managed to remain president while continuing to own his businesses. That is the lever Russia has.
Did the FB ads matter? Did Comey’s I’ll-considered announcement matter? Trump lost the popular vote by 3 million. He won the electoral college by 80,000 in three states. It’s certainly plausible the Wikileaks drip-drip about emails turned that many votes, or led as many to stay home. Trump won fewer votes than Romney. He won the election because Clinton did even worse compared to Obama.
Putin is too smart to solicit Trump as a conspirator. Trump is too dumb to conspire effectively, and too untrustworthy. And no need, because he’s easily manipulated. He’s shallow, egotistical, and greedy. That makes him manipulable.
Every interaction between Trump and Putin we learn about, or see on television, supports that assessment, be it the Moscow tower or Trump’s eager acceptance of Putin’s assertions over our own intelligence agencies.
Consistent with known facts is my theory: Trump owes Putin money, in one way or another. Putin could make him rich by granting sweetheart real estate deals, or destroy him by exposing entanglements he’s so far denied. Because Putin also knows he gets to pull the plug only once, he proceeds carefully, using his leverage off-camera whenever possible.
The best possible outcome is that congress subpoenas the financials and exposes the leverage. That would lead to Trump resigning.
The problem with the Trump/Russian money laundering allegations is that we have an EB-5 visa program that seems designed to appeal to foreign oligarchs who are interested in parking their money in luxury real estate.
If we want to charge every real estate developer who has sold property to wealthy foreign investors with a crime perhaps first we should eliminate the law that encourages the practice.
But that might hurt the already wealthy developers and holders of luxury properties. And therefore though the entire practice is corrupt our government won't end it.
15
Regardless of what comes out of Mueller's investigation - let's be honest folks. We had two candidates severely lacking. Voting for either one caused one to hold one's nose when pulling a lever. Let's hope in 2020, we get some better choices than we had in 2016.
14
Let’s be clear about the two choices: one unlikeable to many candidate and one inept, dangerous, gullible, naive and damaging to all candidate. Whatever choices come in next year, let’s not blur these options.
@Tom
You must have voted for Donald or sat on your hands.
There was no comparison between the two candidates. One was sane, intelligent and experienced. Important qualities in a president. Look what you gave us.
1
@Tom That’s because the media bought into the narrative that Hillary was awful and propaganda works. How long did we spend on Benghazi and emails? How long have we spent on Niger and Trump family emails? There is no comparison. Don’t forget just how culpable some storied newspapers are as well.
As for this op-ed, it’s hot garbage and built on hopes and dreams. Now tens of thousands on the right will trot it out as fact and use it to justify their fake hopes. The freight train of truth is coming whether these people like it or not.
Even if Russian collusion can't be proven you know Trump would have had no problem in planning such a conspiracy. More importantly criminal proof will definitely arise if his financial records are revealed.
8
@John Smith....He would have no trouble planning a conspiracy except that he isn't much of a planner. Trump is a person who puts parties into a traffic circle and watches how they negotiate to see where he can gain his advantage. He may certainly have broken laws doing that, but such ordinary shrewdness maximized to its best effect is not planning and for that reason will probably be counted as less culpable in the end. He accurately identified in 2016 that HRC lacked such shrewdness. As far as I can tell from Cohen's testimony the only "big" news we got was that Stormy got paid.
1
The extent of any conspiracy between Trump and the Russians in regards to Hillary's stolen emails remains to be seen. However, my bet is the most damaging facts to be revealed by Mueller will be the part corrupt financing (in large part Russian mafia money) played in sustaining Trump's real estate interests.
21
@flw What stolen emails? 30,000 were never "found" thanks to Comey. And what corrupt financing are you talking about?
Russ makes good sense. But what he is not (yet) addressing is a non-Steele dossier possibility that explains the very, very strange affection that Donald has for Russia and their affection for him. As Adam Schiff has theorized, it may be that for years Donald's real estate was money laundering for Russian oligarchs and mobsters. Worth investigating. Because there is smoke here -- maybe we haven't been looking in the right place for the fire.
51
Trump seems to have thought the Russians would give him the Trump Tower in Moscow just for running for president.
When Putin pulled a switcheroo and actually tipped the election, the deal obviously changed. Suddenly Trump, his family and advisors were all full fledged Russian assets, and Putin expected Donald to occupy the White House as his agent. And no, there would be no Trump Tower in Moscow deal until Trump fulfilled his entire obligation.
The alternative for any of them wouldn't be just full exposure, but personal annihilation. Perhaps something that would look like an accident and create a martyr's image for the new president.
If he fulfills all of Vladimir Putin's expectations he will then be eligible for the big Moscow deal. Trump will need to get out of the country anyway.
That is, unless Putin changes the stakes again.
15
There are a few things we need to clarify. The entire "no collusion" mantra is something invented by Trump as a diversion. There wasn't collusion: Trump was, in the words of a prominent historian, the "payload" of a Russian assault on our democracy. He was too unimportant to "collude" with the Kremlin as an equal. However, it's beyond clear that Trump's campaign had no problem getting help from the Russia. PAUL MANAFORT shared internal polling data with a Russian asset. Everyone in Trump's orbit has some sort of tie to Russia. There is more Russia than America in the Trump campaign.
I'll also note that it doesn't matter. Everyone will just believe what they want to believe. Fox News isn't just biased: it actively undermines real journalism everyday--and unlike many of you readers, I do watch Fox (I like to know what I'm talking about). They incessantly assail the NYT, Wapo, and the "mainstream media"; in a flagrant display of intellectual dishonesty they conflate progressive politics and economics with the USSR, China, Cuba, Venezuela, etc. They attack Mueller, ignoring that he's a paragon of conservatism and public service--all while wrapping themselves in the flag; all while throwing tizzy fits over the big bad kneeling controversy.
I think it's highly likely Trump's racism and his treasonous allies in the media (and Moscow) will help re-elect him. I really don't know if our democracy will survive. Oh, and Trump WILL NOT step down peacefully.
41
I too watch Fox periodically, and check into their website. Not a fan of talking-heads anywhere, but the Fox group often speak in those affected voices, like they are speaking to a dog or a kitten...and I can only tolerate it for so long, then need to move on.
Often I wonder what it will take for people that I consider intelligent and educated, but DJT supporters to abandon ship. they seem hypnotized and have lost the ability to think critically and it baffles me.
I agree with you- DJT will not walk away cleanly. The reason I think he may not run again in the end is that he may lose. And being a "loser" is just too far out of the box for him. "I've done as much as I can here, I've set my successor up well..I've done more in one term than most could in three or four terms...best President...EVER"
11
@J its interesting. When you have a situation that doesn't make sense, how do you make sense of it? In your case, the conservative world view is so different from the democrat/liberal/progressive worldview that the only way you could understand it is to talk to your conservative friends, ask them where they get their information from, and listen to what they have to say. You might find, they are just as American and just as patriotic as you are. The biggest difference between us is what self reinforcing viewpoints we choose to consume. Its only when you look at both sides that you have a chance at understanding what is currently a mystery to you.
1
It is undeniable that Russia interfered in the electoral process in 2016, with or without the Steele dossier, with or without direct collusion/coordination between trump and the Kremlin.
Several decades of probable money laundering via trump real estate sales aside, Douthat and GOP apologists should answer this: Why did Russia, our sworn and ardent adversary, work tirelessly to insure a trump victory if not to weaken America and NATO?
48
@John It has seemed to me all along that the Russian oligarchs/kleptocrats wanted the removal of the U.S. sanctions first and foremost so they could move their ill-gotten gains out of Russia safely, as they had done in the past. Trump was willing to do this. Clinton was not. So these Russians preferred and supported him. Trump for his part had benefited from the flow of laundered money from Russia in the past, and his business would have benefited even more if the sanctions were lifted.
2
@John It is also well known that Putin wanted to get even with Hillary due to his perception that she wrongfully interfered in his election. Weakening America and NATO with Trump's victory were Putin's icing on the cake.
1
What was the Obama administration doing here to defend or minimize these Russian efforts?
Nothing, because they and most everybody were listening to the NY Time’s polling stories that had Hillary anointed before the first votes were cast.
Hillary herself, her insult of half the country(basketful of deplorables), Comey’s last minute announcement and the US voters put Trump in the Whitehouse.
All these investigations based on gossip, are going to come back and bite the Dems hard one day.
Power will shift and it will be Republicans with their torches and pitchforks out.
US elections will become more about not what someone can lead us to do, but how defensible their past is.
1
Cohen was never in Prague. The whole "dossier" fails when the central event never took place - and the kicker was this could have been easily confirmed by the folks at the FBI and Justice, yet they still went forward and used the document with the FISA court.
In the end, it is much more likely that, just as the Russians spread dirt on Clinton, the dossier was dirt they were spreading on Trump. The whole narrative that a known former British spy, who ran a private intelligence business, had "secret" contacts in Russia never squared with concept in the mainstream media that Putin controlled everything that went on in Russia.
2
@Chris Except that the Steele dossier was not the reason the investigation began. It began because Papadopoulos was blabbering to a foreign diplomat about the Russian possession of hacked emails. Adding to the concern were contacts between other Trump associates and Russians.
What could have been more concerning than the appointment of a Russian bought Manafort as a campaign manager? Is it even conceivable that any other candidate would have placed this utterly corrupt man as head of a presidential campaign?
23
@Haz I'd note that they did use the dossier even though they had to know the central claim of Cohen in Prague was false and never told the court of that fact or that it was a politically funded document. Secondly, Papadoploulos was led down this trail by FBI asset professor Halpern, so how does that possibly square? And I agree Manafort is an interesting character, but if you remember, he was on the campaign for 3 months and his main job was to stop losing delegates to Cruz in the byzantine awarding of delegates process.
There are facts about "Russia Gate" that are omitted simply because they don't follow the narrative that so many reporters want to hear.
But any good journalist will tell you the the facts make the story, not the other way around. One critical fact left out is a report by former US intelligence officers that says the download speed in the report on the DNC hack is higher than the internet provides.
This points to a manual transfer of data, not a hack. If this is true, then it changes the narrative and requires us to either look for Russian agents wandering around Washington, or someone else who had an interest in pointing the blame in their direction.
Three out of seventeen security agencies do claim a Russian hack. But based on that claim alone the press has declared the case closed.
How quickly we forget the non-existent yellow cake uranium. Or the mobile bio-weapons labs. Or the hidden WMD's that everyone, except the UN inspector knew about.
All governments lie. Sometimes for good reasons, more often for bad ones. But the job of the press is to uncover the truth, not to act as a scribe for the powerful who then become those endless "unnamed sources."
The Steele dossier may be accurate, even with its grammatical errors and other tell tale signs of a forgery. But our press needs to put it to a rigorous standard of proof. And so far they have failed to do so.
There's a lot riding on the truth. We went to war on lies. Let's not end a presidency the same way.
3
@Drspock I suspect that the Steele dossier is an excellent hammer to use against the Mueller probe because the Trump folks know that SOME of it is false or unverifiable.
However, the role of the dossier is minimal compared to all the other strange contacts the Trump campaign folks had with the Russians. I honestly don’t know why the Steele dossier is relevant to the discussion of the probe TODAY.
12
@Haz
Right on. Fox, however, uses the dossier as a cudgel. They never flat out state that the Mueller probe started due to the dossier; rather, they just drop non sequiturs. When responding to the Mueller probe, they just bring up the "dirty dossier" and intentionally refuse to mention G. Pap's indiscretion. This allows their viewers to just assume a connection between Mueller and Steele. It's shameless. It stops short of lying, but it plants a lot of seeds. Trust me. Have a candid convo will a serious Fox viewer. They DON'T EVEN KNOW the basic facts surrounding the investigations.
What is interesting about the entire Mueller investigation is not so much that Trump may or may not have colluded with Russia but that so many other illegal and immoral actions were uncovered by the investigation. How Mueller and the team even kept up with all of this and achieved what they have so far in the courts is breathtaking.
55
We ned to keep our focus on two things.
One is Hillary Clinton's 2016 proposal to have a no-fly zone over Syria, a Russian ally. This could easily have led to conflict and perhaps to war between two nuclear powers. (See the Guardian, October 25, 2016).
The other is Trump's recent, very dangerous move to pull out of the ABM treaty with Russia. And less dangerous but still unfortunate move to pull out of the Iran deal.
While ignoring these big items, we are focusing on whether there would have been a Trump hotel in Moscow or not and whether and how much Trump knew about it. Can we see that compared to the possibility of a nuclear war this is a small ticket item?
We have become a country which regards politics as a source of (sometimes painful) amusement.
But the future of civilization, and our planet, are at stake. Can we grow up?
19
@Ludwig
Can we grow up?
No, I do not believe that we can.
1
Ross, I have the same analysis as you - with one sad exception.
You state: "If Mueller could prove that something like that happened, impeachment would be inevitable, and resignation or removal reasonably likely."
No, this GOP Senate would never impeach Trump - even if he "shot someone o Fifth Avenue."
20
@shelbym -- Even so, Mueller would not just sit on solid evidence for years, letting Trump go on, if he had it.
Douthat is intentionally abusing the phrase "years-long" when referring to the dossier’s claim of a years-long Trump-Kremlin entanglement. The interpretation is too literal by far. If you accept Manafort as an intermediary between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin, the relationship is "years-long" by definition. Manafort's relationship with the Kremlin began in the Ukraine years before.
This is the major fallacy conservatives are attempting to promote in the lead up to Mueller's report. Anything less than a literal and verifiable validation of the Steele dossier falls short of an impeachable offense. Conservatives are attempting to set a bar they know cannot be achieved. Therefore, the "agnostic" prediction is self-fulfilling.
The Mueller report will probably prove coordination between the Trump campaign and Russia. Evidence of coordination is already made public. However, Republicans will denounce the report as meaningless because it doesn't prove everything in the Steele Dossier. They will therefore refuse to impeach and refuse to remove regardless of the actual evidence presented in Mueller's report.
It's a sham argument and Douthat is smart enough to know it.
21
As he should have, Andy quoted Mr. Douthat accurately: "Douthat is intentionally abusing the phrase "years-long" when referring to the dossier’s claim of a years-long Trump-Kremlin entanglement."
There is a reason the correct use of the apostrophe is crucial to understanding the writer's intent.
"Years" is the plural of year.
"Year's long" refers to something that happened over the course of one year.
"Years' long" refers to something that happened over two or more years.
Grammar and punctuation matter.
Collusion is not the word. Conspiracy is. Did they in anyway conspire with foreign aid to rig the system for a win. The answer already seems to be yes. With or without Mueller.
54
@David Gifford Thank You for this well needed clarification. Collusion is way overused when the proper word to use is Conspiracy.
3
@David Gifford Please explain how they rigged the system for a win. Obama said it was impossible.
@David Gifford
From Merriam-Webster dictionary: “Synonyms for collusion
Synonyms
complicity, connivance, conspiracy. Visit the Thesaurus for More.”
There is no difference between the meanings of “collusion” and “conspiracy.” Prove one and you’ve proved the other. So far, neither has been revealed or proved after two years of a multi-faceted, multi-million dollar investigation.
I can definitely believe bumbling rather than collusion.
Collusion requires careful communication, strategic planning, long foresight and detailed follow through.
Bumbling requires simply awakening every morning.
Definitely, I do think Trump is capable, of awakening in the morning (albeit apparently around 11 am).
I do not think Trump and Trump's people are capable of careful communication, strategic planning, long foresight and detailed follow through.
8
Mr. Douthat:
As usual, your recitation is highly selective, and omits the following evidence of a quid-pro-quo relationship between the Trump campaign and the Russian government:
1. You completely fail to mention Russian money-laundering through the Trump Org., via its casinos; real estate holdings; and Deutsche Bank. This is viewed as a very real possibility by Congressman Schiff and others.
2. You fail to discuss the significance of Paul Manafort having shared detailed, inside campaign information with an individual who is suspected by our intelligence services of being linked to the Russian security services, and what that implies as far as the Trump campaign's coordination with the Russian government's interference in our election through social media; and
3. You fail to mention the change in the RNC platform with regards to the Ukraine (the adoption of the so-called "Peace Plan"); or the incoming Trump administration's position on Russian sanctions, both of which positions may have been pay-back for Russian assistance during the election.
Finally, although Cohen did not have, in his words, "direct evidence" of collusion, he did say that he had "suspicions", which is hardly as exculpatory as your piece suggests.
69
@MCW
The article also fails to mention the Deutsche Bank connection. I don’t have proof because I’m not involved in this but from here it’s pretty easy to suspect that Russians have laundered money through Deutsche Bank, how Russia got them to look the other way when Trump inflated numbers to get loans that he needed. There’s a reason no one else who is legit would ever give him loans.
40
well, except no one knows what Cohen's testimony included in the closed-door sessions, especially with the Intelligence Committee. in open sessions both Dems & Repubs orchestrate their questions and avoid issues that are forbidden, probably more than the ones Cohen said he couldn't talk about because of ongoing investigations. will it all be revealed? doubtful. that is a main problem. both sides will be able to talk their beliefs to their deaths and beyond. what is much more realistic is to use the X-Files platitude - "The Truth Is Out There!"
6
Don’t you just love the way commentators on the right cherry-pick what they will and won’t believe about testimony that may reflect badly on Trump. There are MANY reasons to justify the end of this clownshow that transcend the Steele Dossier, especially if Trump knew of a foreign government’s interference in our election, failed to report it and used that knowledge to further his own misbegotten election.
20
@angus
It seems like many of the commentators on the left are doing the same thing, cherry-picking what to believe or not. I think Douthat is exactly correct. If there was any evidence of collusion during the campaign, I think we would have heard about it by now. But again as Douthat notes, there is enough unethical and possibly illegal behavior in Trump's past as a businessman that Mueller's report likely won't make him look good.
4
@J. Waddell Any thinking person would know that Trump doesn't look good--too bad that fact alone did not prevent him from gaining the presidency. And possible illegal actions? Isn't racial discrimination illegal--think Trump 1974; think of falsely advertising the benefits of the for profit (and nothing else) Trump U....and those are the easy low hanging fruit. Trump is more than an embarrassment--he is the national emergency.
1
It's the money laundering. When Trump went bankrupt for a billion in the early 90s, the banks wouldn't lend him any more money. That's when Russia reached out with a sweetheart deal: Trump licensed luxury apartment towers in former Soviet capitals where oligarchs laden with dirty money could overpay for luxury apartments and resell later at market, all through LLCs with no one's name on them. Putin and Trump then split the overpayments. Don Jr even said at one point during the run-up to the 2016 election that all their money comes from Russia.
This crime theory completely explains both the kompromat known to Putin and, because of it, Trump's behavior towards Putin and Russia.
30
I never suspected the Trump team of instigating a collusive partnership with Russian agents or provocateurs. I have long suspected that they became aware of beneficial information provided by Russian sources, and less than legal sources, and failed to report the information and the use of it.
So conspiracy? Probably not. Knowledge of a foreign power tampering with an election through illegal means - Wikileaks, e-mails, propaganda - probably.
So to me the question has never been one of "collusion;" it has long been one of corruption, influence peddling with a foreign nation, and failing to act in a manner that upholds the Constitution. I have also suspected, with much smoke, but no solid evidence of fire yet emerging from the SDNY or Mueller, that the President has breached every level of the emoluments clause in pursuit of self-gain and familial gain, and has hired people who stand to gain from Cabinet positions as well.
The question for me has always been not how close did Trump come to unconstitutional behavior, but how often did he cross the line?
27
McCabe and Comey, appearing on The Colbert Show,have both been asked about the Mueller investigation and, while they wouldn't go into detail, have both confirmed that there is significant material which isn't yet public or hinted at by any of the charges or sentencing memos thus far.
22
It still begs the question: Why did so many of Donald Trump's people, knowing fully the consequences of lying under oath, chose to lie anyway? Clearly, they made the decision that risking their freedom was worth protecting Donald Trump. Protecting him from what? Inquiring minds want to know.
56
@DA Mann
lying to the FBI is a procedural crime. Misstate a date or time, omit a name or meeting, no matter how inconsequential, and you can be charged by the Bureau and convicted by a court where the federal police enjoys a 97% conviction rate. Repeat the Lord’s Prayer and somewhere within it a determined FBI can successfully charge you with lying.
Putin is not as stupid as the NYTs likes to think. Breaking news repeatedly with screaming headlines completely baseless. The NYTs wanted to smear Putin from day one. Obviously this is the neo con game plan. Tearing Russia into small pieces has always been their goal. Since Clinton's election seemingly was in doubt and the Obama justice dept. efforts to get Clinton past her email debacle; Russia became a bigger and bigger target of dishonest bluster. Then she lost the election. My god the confusion. Trump had such a poor grasp of putting a gov't together that the Never Trump people got special prosecutor Mueller. Mueller can always indict far away inaccessible Russians to give this mess plausibility. So far nothing but process crime indictments. The Steele dossier was the lifeline of the Never Trump herd. This nasty neo McCarthyism has spawned a dangerous crazy belligerence to Russia.
5
@c harris,
The efforts of right-wing apologists are just amazing. "Smear Putin," that is a really funny joke. The man is a ruthless former KGB assassin. He has essentially established himself with a leadership position in Russia for life. He should just declare himself King Putin the first and be done with it. As for the Russia-philes in the Trump campaign, they were many. The campaign had people specifically tasked with establishing direct ties to Russia, George Papadopoulous, to name one. Jared Kushner requested a back-channel communication link with the Kremlin, their buddy Spy-master Kislyak had to rein him in on that over eager move. People talk about "no evidence of collusion. Do you think these people sign Be My secret contact contracts? Trump and his campaign were corrupt to the max. He would have made a deal with the devil to get his brand into the white house. too bad that now everyone can see what a moronic liar he is that I think the Trump brand will be tainted forever.
Blue wave 2020!
Does anyone truly believe all sides will support/believe whatever the Mueller report puts forth? If Trump is found to be anything less than the devil, Democrats will be unsatisfied. If Trump is found to be the devil, Republicans will thrash about crying witch hunt and partisan hacksmanship (for lack of a better word).
The country is so divided there can be no agreement on what day of week this is. As someone who has always loved political debate, I’m worn out. For me, I am turning to all sports, all the time.
8
It’s extraordinary to read a rational, calm and common sense column, as Mr. Douthat’s is, regarding the Russian collusion hysteria that has been sweeping the nation for over two years. Among the majority who is dismayed and distressed by Trump’s election and presidency, are those of us asking that the attempt to unseat this flawed and unpleasant, but constitutionally elected, conman of a President be based on provable facts and evidence that underpin the judicial system of any democracy.
In Robert Bolt’s play (and later film) about Thomas More, More admonishes his future son in law for his unfounded haste in condemnation of someone and says that he, More, would “even give the Devil his due, for my own safety’s sake.”
We, too, should insist on evidence, the keystone of democracy, for our own safety’s sake less the arch that sustains it comes crashing down around us.
11
@Alfred di Genis
Who disagrees with a desire for evidence, do you imagine?
We have lots of evidence of coordination, illegal actions, dubious relationships, questionable choices and more. But, not all illegalities leave a trail. Evidence is rarely entirely sufficient. A professional criminal like Trump will take measures to prevent the creation of evidence in the first place and hide it effectively if it is created.
Indisputable evidence of illegality is an important standard, but hardly the only one of significance in regard to the POTUS and his administration's interactions with a hostile foreign power.
6
@Alfred di Genis
The report isn’t out yet. All this is speculation. Including your theory....
One day hopefully soon, The Mueller report will come out and then we will know.
@Hmmm
"Indisputable evidence of illegality is an important standard,.."
"Evidence of illegality" is not "an important standard." It is the only standard since where there is no illegality, there is no crime. And neither the FBI report as evidenced in its leading and highlighted disclaimer at the top, nor the Intelligence Community Assessment of June last year by three intelligence agencies through "hand picked" agents and which includes, among others, this disclaimer on Annex B page 13: "Judgements are not intended to imply that we have proof," present any. None.
The intelligence agencies have no proof and so far the Mueller investigation has offered none, not one pixel, that Russia interfered in the 2016 elections and that the Trump campaign colluded in that interference which is the legal remit of the Rosenberg letter outlining the responsibilities and purpose of the investigation.
Speculations, rumours and innuendoes? A rubbish-truck full. And all swept clean the next day. Evidence? None. Not yet after two years.
View this situation as if it were simply an investigation into a crime (which it is).
First, there is the report to the police … the Steele Dossier. Those of us who have worked in the system know that the initial report is often incomplete and inaccurate, except that it tells us that something happened.
Then, there is the initial investigation, which brings more clarity. That is followed by the formal charges, and finally there is a trial (or a plea).
I am no friend of the Donald. But I strongly doubt that he, personally, conspired with the Russians, or that he was blackmailed by them. On the other hand, those around him did work with, or try to work with, the Russians and Assange, and the President lied about it and covered it up.
Sound familiar? Remember that Nixon did not personally order the Watergate break in.
23
@John Graybeard
“View this situation as if it were simply an investigation into a crime (which it is).”
It is not. It is an investigation into whether a crime (collusion) was committed. So far, there is no evidence that such a crime was committed. It is the bizarre case of the prosecution looking for a crime to blame someone for.
1
@John Graybeard
I think your assessment is the most accurate description yet. He didn't have to do it himself, he had plenty of people around him who were willing and able - who knew, without being asked or instructed, what their boss would want done. A criminal 'family' operation if there ever was one!
This is my cautious expectation for the Mueller report. It will neither condemn nor exonerate President Trump; it will be inconclusive and wrapped in dense legal language. Somewhere buried in the thicket might be grounds for further investigation, in fact it is almost certain. But Mueller and his team will leave that decision to others, after perhaps a few hints. The Justice Department will take this as a wrap and declare the matter closed while House Democrats will take it quite differently. No minds will be changed. In other words, a lot of sound and fury and nothing more.
4
In other words, if Trump and Company were useful tools of Putin motivated by greed and power hunger rather than conspiracy...according to Ross...no big deal.
My how we have fallen as a society and supposed land of law and order.
Some theorize Trump won’t go quietly in 2020 if at all. Since there is still no bottom low enough for which to even begin to hold Trump (and his anti-constitutionalist supporters in Congress) accountable for their crimes and misdeeds against America, don’t cry foul when you awaken to the Trump authoritarian regime in full force and effect. Eyes wide open. This is the most transparent destruction and ultimate
takeover of a country in history.
35
Again confuses the unlikelihood of one of several dozen crimes with exoneration. Disappointment is lodged entirely with the shell game of this thesis.
4
How is this opinion piece useful? It's just speculation based on limited information, and it's dividing the country between those who want to believe Trump is guilty from those who want to believe in his innocence.
We should wait to see what course of action Mueller takes/recommends, and focus on issues and news that our opinions might actually impact.
11
Steele did not deem all the material "credible." He has always said it was raw intel and he thought it was "mostly" credible. Others made the sweeping claims that Steele has not made.
21
I would love to see a closer investigation of the Steele dossier. Not of its contents, but how it was composed.
The usual claim is that Steele was a retired intelligence officer with contacts in Washington and Russia who used his network. But the Skripal affair paints a picture that active British intelligence officers were involved. And that raises the question whether active US intelligence officers were involved too.
7
No matter what Mueller finds, Republicans will not support impeachment and Trump voters will not support impeachment. The news they want to believe and will hear from their trusted sources is that it is fake news.
Being used by the Russians without conspiring with them may or may not be an impeachable offense. Being helped by the Russians without conspiring to get that help may or may not be an impeachable offense. Admiring the power of Putin and disliking the checks and balances of our system may or may not be an impeachable offense. But if these are bad things, an impeachable offense can be found or generated to try to get him out of office. This is what the radical Republicans did to get Johnson, and what the modern Republicans did to get Clinton; both failed, but that failure was not inevitable. With Nixon, we would have found multiple impeachable offenses, but he saw this and resigned.
If we start finding or generating impeachable offenses to remove Trump from office, Republicans will have to choose to support him, support his removal, or claim not to support him while also refusing to support his removal on legal nitpicky grounds. This last choice is the same as supporting him without admitting to it. It is the moderate choice, and allows Republicans to have their cake and eat it too. Their refusal to impeach Trump keeps Trumpsters with them while their condemnations of Trump lets them appeal to anti-Trumpsters. It is an ideal Machiavellian strategy.
7
@sdavidc9
And to pick up from your post that is why, unfortunately, Trump will probably win reelection. The Mueller Report will most likely reveal what Ross Douthat says: the report does not make Trump look good or moral, but it implicitly exonerates him from Russian collusion. That is a Yuge victory for Trump and his supporters. That is how low the bar is with Trump. And if you think that Congressional Republicans are sycophantic sheep now, wait till you see them after Trump is implicitly exonerated.
From there the GOP goes into high gear character assassination mode against the presumptive and eventual Democratic nominee. Trump's campaign themes will be a failed fake Democratic (deep state) plot to destroy the president, his overexaggerated claims to great accomplishments, and the coming threat of socialism. All of this will be packaged in racism and sexism. This may work for them. It is absolutely sickening to look at what are today. And to bring in Machiavelli in, as you have done: Questo e la verita effettuale.
1
Surely the question of Michael Cohen's having visited Prague is only being debated on the public level. I'd be very much disappointed in government investigators, or even a first-rate firm of private ones, if they couldn't ascertain the facts in such a matter. It's not as if he were supposed to have parachuted in on a moonless night and gone straight to a safe house.
Am I expecting too much?
7
The Trump defense now hinges on one fact. Cohen denies ever going to Prague to conspire with Russians. In addition he is accused of being an inveterate liar by the GOP bootlickers. Somehow the contradiction between those two items never crossed the bootlickers' minds. That there was numerous meetings between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives is by now a well established fact but it is likely that Mueller will not prove that Trump master minded the Russian efforts. Therefore Trump should not be impeached, never mind that he has disgraced the office of President with grotesque disregard for all established norms; that he has on numerous occasions attempted to obstruct justice; that he has used his position to promote his business and to inflame deep divisions among the US population. If Trump's behavior provides no basis for impeachment then impeachment is simply a meaningless word on a piece of paper.
13
@serban
The Republicans want to convince you that the whole case is based on the Steele memo, but that argument constitutes a classic red herring.
Steele is not on trial. I understand that he has given a depo in a civil case that will become public that may be important to the defense. Maybe not.
Explain the hiring of the Ukraine/Russian advocate Manafort as campaign manager. Explain the "OK Russia" declaration shortly before the release of the Clinton emails. Explain the back channel issue. Explain the optics of Helsinki. Explain the presence of the Russian/Ukrainian contingent at the inauguration.
15
The whole Trump the Russian Agent absurdity which is now collapsing rather spectacularly was based on the elite's mistaken premise that, as warm & wonderful and corporate & Wall Street friendly a candidate as Mrs. Clinton was, she could not possibly have lost the election unless it was stolen from her. . . . The Russian collusion fraud distraction was absolutely necessary for the Democratic leadership to avoid implementing the much needed social reforms their base of working and middle class voters demand, but which the corporations & rich individuals who fund Democratic Party candidates oppose.
6
@Red Allover You really don't make any sense. You have concocted a very elaborate conspiracy to justify certain realities that there are many more simple and obvious reasons but sadly don't point the direction you wish. There is plenty of evidence Trump and his team were conspiring with Russians which was known even before the election but McConnell didn't want that information released. Trump sides with Putin and denigrates our own country's intelligence agency on a regular basis. Hillary lost the election because she was deeply flawed and that a minority of people (but enough in the right states) believed that Trump would make things better. The Democratic leadership cannot implement any social reforms because Republicans control the White House and the Senate.
If you just look at Trump's history - shilling products, creating obvious cons like Trump University, lying about his own net worth, needing a "fixer", words out of his own mouth on a huge number of topics, multiple bankruptcies, divorces, an affair with a porn star weeks after his son was born and then trying to cover it up, etc., etc. - it all points to a man wholly unfit for the presidency. You can weave whatever convoluted reality you want about Hillary but it is Trump and what he does on a regular basis that defiles our country in our eyes.
Americans are trained to hate Russia, so what? The truth is, the Democrats would rather lose to President Trump than win with the Socialist Senator Sanders. Their base is going Socialist while their leadership is Capitalist. You cannot serve two masters. A house divided against itself cannot stand.
1
The legal investigation of a citizen, including the predident, should not be like hunting. If you go out deer hunting and come back with rabbits, it's still good (if they're in sesson and there's anything left of them). Mueller seems to be on an elephant hunt.
4
Why do you give so little weight to Manafort's provision of internal polling data to those connected to Russian intel? How is this anything less that the coordinated collaboration to influence an election (by helping to direct the most damaging stolen information, and focusing the social media bots) that crosses the bar you ("honest broker"?) set for ending Trump's presidency? The facts are already there. Seems some just choose to downplay them based on how they want this to play out.
22
"If Mueller could prove that something like that happened, impeachment would be inevitable, and resignation or removal reasonably likely."
The facts were in more than a year ago.
Zero chance Mueller has been sitting on actionable criminal evidence v Trump.
Mueller himself would be charged with obstruction.
8
Douthat an agnostic? Bwahaha.
As much as he may claim to deplore Trump, he's more than happy with the tax cuts, the deregulation, the privatization of government agencies and resources. Straight out of Milton Friedman and the Chicago school of economics playbook.
He's also thrilled with the court appointments, which are assuredly anything but agnostic.
76
Between the infamous Trump Tower meeting with Junior and secretive meetings with Vladimir Putin there is enough evidence to send Donald Trump to prison for a long time.
Although there has been constant noise from Fox News and Trump sycophants that Donald Trump did not collude with Russian intelligence, we still haven't heard from Robert Mueller. I, for one, will be interested to see what he has to say about the matter.
All the confusion sowed by Rudy Giuliani seems to have an effect on the narrative of Russian involvement in our 2016 election. Don't rush to judgement without hearing all of the evidence that should make matters clearer.
We can still be shocked, even though the payoff of Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal before the election should make that Trump lies and does so frequently.
11
You may be right, Ross, but I keep coming back to this question: If there was no collusion with the Russians, why all the lying by Trump and his tribe?
197
@Robert Stewart
No, Mr. Stewart, neither Rex Reese nor Ross Douthat is right. Mr. Reese for being an American Sean Hannity in Paris, Mr. Douthat for admittedly being an "agnostic", and so genetically predisposed to nailing exculpatory manifestos to every cathedral door.
David Brooks removed one sunglass lens, it seems Perhaps Mr. Douthat one day will do likewise. What would that take, I wonder?
4
@Robert Stewart -- Because that's what rugs do: lie and get walked on.
2
@Robert Stewart If they did not do anything wrong but still lied through their teeth,then they must be doing it for fun or out of habit. They just can't help it. Once a liar always a liar.
2
Changing the Republican platform, hiring Manafort as his campaign manager, lying about the Trump Tower meeting, speaking with Putin without staff present, refusing to acknowledge or do anything about Russian interference in the election despite unanimous agreement of our intelligence agencies that it happened, and obstructing all investigations is pretty strong circumstantial evidence of conspiracy. I also think that we will eventually find out much of what happened from Michael Flynn. There is a reason Mueller recommended a substantially lighter sentence. All that said, Russian collusion aside, he will go down for tax fraud and money laundering via the SDNY. The Republicans can call their former RNC deputy finance chairman Michael Cohen a liar all they want, but they can't change the facts.
41
Ross, you probably got it right. Trump is our own "Teflon Don." The guilt rolls off of him onto everyone close to him - by design.
And seriously, I can't disagree with you. The Mueller investigation probably will result in nothing definite about collusion with Russia to defraud the American voting public.
But that will not mean it didn't happen. And that does not mean our president did not try to accomplish that with criminal intent. It only means that in a land of laws, we can't nail him to a cross, legally - as will happen to many of the sycophants who follow in his wake. Thus is the privilege of power.
The complaints against your well considered position is the hypocrisy with which those who want the moral high ground have pried this deeply flawed sinner from the muck and put him on a pedestal without as much as asking him to show some repentance to any God or to exhibit any desire at all to honor his position by embodying any principled position at all except self enrichment.
Have we learned nothing from history? It will take some time for the full effect of the Trump presidency to cast its shadow across our lives. Today, conservatives believe tossing aside morality will yield them benefit.
Tomorrow, when the tax cuts have had no effect but to eradicate social security and medicare, and the jobs are gone, and the water is undrinkable - he and his ilk will have escaped the country with the wealth they've amassed at our expense.
48
Many left-wing pundits are already transitioning from the Russian "collusion" frenzy to feeding on the NYC-based investigations of Trump's possible tax and financial problems. CNN's Chris Como more or less announced that on Friday. Sizable audiences are now addicted to this whole, destructive and depressing circus.
11
@FrederickRLynch No FrederickRLynch, we are not so fickle. We are not republicans shifting and slithering in their efforts to tar Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama with whatever nonsense they could attempt to justify. We are concerned Americans aghast at the breadth of this unbearable grift and self-dealing and all-too-numerous nefarious characters of the Trump experience. We are trying to grasp the true depth of depravity. Nobody I know is "transitioning" from one single story line to another. We are trying to keep abreast of all of them.
1
But what about the Trump Tower meeting? Remember the "if it is what you say, I love it"? Are we to believe that Don Jr., Manafort, or Kushner never told Trump about that meeting before it happened? Trump knew about that meeting and he blessed it, hoping that the Russians will give him dirt about Clinton. Isn't that conspiring with a foreign power to win an election?
Anyway, it is too early to dismiss the Steele Dossier.
49
@Thomas
What dose it matter whether Donald Trump knew about the Trump Tower meeting in advance? There was nothing unlawful about the meeting. The meeting was not unlawful. All participants in the meeting—including Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya—have given sworn testimony a out the meeting. If Mueller thought Veselnitskaya was a Russian agent, he would have indicted her along with the other Russians he indicted.
1
To see the complete collapse of conservative thought in America in March 2019, one need look no further than your column today, Mr. Douthat.
Numerous Trump Administration officials met with Russians, and lied about it.
Why?
The Republican platform at the Republican convention in 2016 was altered to support Russian interests.
Why?
Emails were strategically dropped to attack Clinton's campaign, 29 minutes after the explosive reveal of the Access Hollywood tape and Trump's grotesque brags of grabbing women by the you-know-what.
Why?
Trump has threatened our allies and threatened to pull us out of NATO, something which Putin would love to happen.
Why?
Trump gets on the world stage in Helsinki and says he believes Putin, over our 17 intelligence agencies who reported to him that the Russians interfered in our 2016 elections, because Putin told him.
Why?
If you want to see what an American patriot does when approached by foreign enemies, look to Adlai Stevenson who was approached by Russians in the 1960's:
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-perspec-russia-roger-stone-trump-0626-story.html
Just because Trump is an idiot and he surrounds himself with idiotic sycophants, is no excuse for what damage he has done and for his dangerous and unpatriotic behavior.
I just hope we make it to 2020 and get this corrupt criminal and his sycophantic cronies out of office before anymore damage is done.
1003
@V What damage has Trump done? Other than being in office? The interests of conservatives have not been damaged at all. In fact, they fully support him. The only damage Trump has caused is to the Democrat political wishes. And you have to admit, he did so effectively? If he's reelected in 2020, how will you rationalize it?
9
@RDIf you limit your notion of "conservative interests" to getting members of the Federalist Society on the federal bench, cutting taxes on the rich and corporations, deregulating extractive industries, denying climate science, you're right but if you expand your view to the Constitution, to withdrawing from the world state and leaving it to Russia and China, closing markets to multilateral treaties or upholding a moral stance for the presidency and the dignity of governing, Trump has damaged the GOP, perhaps irretrievably.
276
@RD Total damage to the rule of law--example Trump giving Kushner a security clearance--Trump declaring a fake emergency at the border so he can take over the power of the purse...And total damage to the principles of integrity and truth. See any legitimate medias stories on the thousands of lies Trump (not counting his minions like Sarah Huckabee Sanders) has told. How about damage to the environment, to international agreements, to ally support? I could go on...
74
Ross, you want judges that will ban abortion so badly it clouds how you view all this. There are at least three OTHER scandals with ample potential to wreck Trump's presidency out there. Memories of which side the Religious Right was on are going to be long, and severe, when this ends. The utter collapse of the whole movements moral credibility for starters.
65
Cohen said he had "suspicions" regarding Trump and his campaign and the Russians. Yet no one on the House Oversight Committee asked him to elaborate about what caused those suspicions. Was it off-limits because of his cooperation agreement with Robt. Mueller? If not, why was he not asked?
8
Mueller has indicted 6 Trumpers for lying about Russia. Sessions lied about Russia and it was so serious he had to recuse himself from Trump-Russia. Trump lied to Americans about trying to build Trump Tower Moscow. Mueller indicted the Russian Internet Research Agency for conspiracy to defraud the US government, helping Trump win the presidency. Trump fired Comey because it solved the Russia thing, as he told Holt on TV. Trump has conducted non stop Twitter warfare on the press, on the FBI, and our intelligence service regarding Russia. In Helsinki Trump told us he believes Russia did not interfere with the 2016 election, because Putin told him so. According to Douthat, all this, and more (FBI counterintelligence intel op on Trump, Flynn’s lies about Russia, etc.) is explained by bumbling incompetency of Trump et al. Not really. What fit the data better is Trump and his fellow conspirators trying to hide a conspiracy with Russia to help Trump win the presidency in exchange for sanction relief.
110
Forgetting about all the smoke and the noise re Trump in my viewpoint we are blessed to have this investigation.
If Trump is actually guilty of serious collaboration with the Russians "a longstanding exchange of favors" then Douhat thinks Trump deserves impeachment more so than Nixon. The U.S. since the end of World War II has been working to throw foreign democratic elections in its favor and has even overthrown leaders (like Allende, Mossadegh) it regarded as unfavorable. In Russia, the U.S. collaborated with Yeltsin in 1996 to ensure his reelection. In short, if Russia meddled seriously, then it would be policies applied to the U.S.A. which we felt appropriate to apply to others. If impeached we would be rid of the harmful Trump administration
Lets now assume that The Russian investigation is baseless. One cannot deny that the U.S. has been blessed by hamstringing this administration which can come up with no policies than reactionary court judges, building a wasteful racist border wall, and a tax cut which increases the federal deficit and redistributes wealth to the already opulent. In this case, the administration is likely blocked from doing more evil. These investigations as likely all that can be done to stop this administration from doing more harm. Either way, potential impeachment or "unjust" paralysis are net positives in the current circumstances. We cannot hope for a better outcome at this time.
7
Let's see if this is right.
The Steele Dossier was a Democratic Party-funded piece of fiction.
That source of funding was concealed from the FISA Court.
Mr. Cohen's wife was threatened with prosecution, in order to "induce" Mr. Cohen to testify the way he did - which fact ought to have been disclosed so that people would have some context within which to judge Mr. Cohen's testimony.
And President Trump has been tough on Russia.
Exactly how do these things align with collusion?
14
Because your facts are incorrect.
The dossier initially started as Republican oppo research during the primaries.
The funding was not hidden from the FISA court.
Mr. Cohen testified to decrease his prison sentence - which he received because the Mueller investigation turned up proof he’d lied and the raids on his home and office turned up hard proof.
Mr. Trump is anything but hard on Russia. His administration has carried out sanctions enacted by Congress, but slowly and unwillingly, and were lifted on one of the worst cronies. He has never said one critical word about Putin. Not. One. The only 2 other people he has never publicly criticized are his current wife and his eldest daughter.
And the question none of his defenders ask is if they’d be equally cool with Hillary’s close advisors and child having over 100 contacts with Russians during the campaign all the while it was public knowledge Russia was trying to affect the election? Or, if it’s easier to imagine, replace Russia with Iran? We all know Hillary would have been impeached in February 2017 if that were the case.
290
@Maurice Gatien
If you have been paying careful attention all this time... The Steele Dossier was in fact first compiled by a Conservative website, The Washington Free Beacon. After they wanted to distance themselves from what they found, the original research company's contract (GPS Fusion) was then offered to DNC/Clinton campaign. At the point the DNC got it, the dirt was already dug up.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/28/washington-free-beacon-first-commissioned-trump-russia-dossier.html
5
@Maurice Gatien
Christopher Steele, the former MI6 agent was paid, first by Republicans, then by Democrats. He was chosen because they recognized that he was the most capable person to know and interrogate Russians who knew about Trump connections.
If his employers didn’t want the truth, they wouldn’t have hired him; they could have just made up convenient lies, like Karl Rove.
8
While we don't know yet if Trump and his election committee "conspired" with Russia to win the election, we do know that Russia worked hard to get Trump elected.
So, please tell me Mr. Douthat, why you, the NYTs, the GOP, and Congress aren't screemng for something to be done to stop Russian interference in our elections? With all the concern being expressed about possible internal election fraud, why isn't the American public being informed about foreign efforts to sway our elections? We need to know the "how, whats, whys, and when of Russia's efforts and we need to feel that Congress has "our backs." We need hearings and action on Russia's interference in the 2016 election and we need to know that our country is protected from this happening again in local, state, and national elections.
113
Let’s not focus excessively on Steele. He was one of a number of credible sources sounding the alarm about the Russians in summer 2016. And make no mistake, senior government figures in Washington heard that alarm.
The problem is, individuals such as Mitch McConnell threw up roadblocks when concerns were raised. For example, John Brennan, then head of the CIA, was reportedly involved in a shouting match with McConnell when attempting to present classified intelligence to the latter. And it’s been well reported that McConnell threatened to publicly accuse Obama of attempting to interfere in the election when the former proposed, in late summer/early autumn 2016, putting out a statement regarding Russian meddling.
And of course, these same figures have continued ever since to shield Trump from investigations into his ties with Russia. Congressional inquiries under their control have been a farce.
They’ve attacked our institutions in an effort to promote a “deep state” conspiracy theory that presents Trump as victim. They’ve remained silent as Trump shamelessly yields to the likes of Putin, MBS and Kim Jung-Un, all while insulting crucial allies and threatening to withdraw from NATO.
Whatever the truth about Trump and Russia, it’s but one chilling part of a much larger, more terrifying story about a US president who, in too many ways to count, is destroying this once great nation by the hour - and with plenty of assistance from the GOP and their supporters.
266
Merely demonstrating that Trump was aware of Russia's aggressive propaganda and hacking efforts to manipulate the election, while never reporting this to the proper authorities, is enough to conclude he engaged in treason. This was an attack on the U.S., and the GOP candidate for commander in chief just looked the other way, at the very least. Others in his orbit appeared to engage in collusion.
Also, Cohen's testimony to Congress was mostly(2 of 3 hearings) behind closed doors. Douthat doesn't know what he revealed.
For what it's worth, I don't believe Ross is anywhere close to being "agnostic" on this issue.
99
Ross you are thinking in terms of a traditional conspiracy where a bunch of people get together and hatch a scheme. That isn't how counterintelligence works. We are never going to see "The Meeting" where someone from the Kremlin hands out defined roles and signs checks. They are much more sophisticated than that. It's like casting out a bunch of fishing lines and waiting to see if you catch anything. It's pretty clear that both sides were attempting to "collude" but it's also pretty clear that the GRU wasn't organizing meetings with Trump associates where they hatched some plan.
26
Cohen is peripheral to the Mueller investigation. As is becoming increasingly apparent is Trump has a strange relationship with Putin. That the Steely dossier doesn't explain all of this is also not critical because we have a trove of facts, acts and information in plain sight that verifies this strange relationship.
In fact, the relationship is so strange that the FBI opened a cointel investigation into Trump's relationship with Putin.
Trump and conservatives every where think they can breath a sigh of relief at indications the released Mueller report will fail to prove CRIMINAL wrong doing, something the Senate Intelligence committee has already concluded, but will be highly embarrassing politically.
Since almost everything conservatives have said about the Mueller report has been wrong up to this point, they would do well to keep the smelling salts handy for the day the report is released.
41
@Paul
I only wish that conservatives would use smelling salts the day the report is released. I’m afraid they will use their kalashnikovs.
18
Collusion is irrelevant to McConnell's Senate. They won't remove Trump and his base will not abandon him no matter what crimes he has committed.
24
On the other hand, Mr. Douthat, why would The Donald have asked James Comey if the latter was aware of the existence of that alleged Russian pee-tape? Which is to say, how could there possibly have been such a tape if Trump never engaged in the kind of activity that the tape presumably documents? I still say that all, or pretty much all, would be revealed by an inspection of those tax returns that are evidently still being audited (!). If there are no grounds for collusion with Moscow, there should be no indication on those returns that our feckless leader ever transacted any business there.
31
For pundits, the game is to guess what Mueller will say (or what Barr will let us know) and that is a fool's errand. We can all save a significant hunk of our time between now and when the Mueller report comes out by ignoring articles or essays that make a stab at what is unknowable. Of course, I just squandered some of that potentially savable time by reading this (and then commenting on it).
17
If I were you I would keep this piece posted in a real obvious place of honor. Then when you are confronted with reality it will be close at hand. You may well be the last man standing in 45's corner.
14
The circumstantial evidence of conspiracy between Trump and Russian agents is compelling enough that those of us on the sidelines must fool ourselves in order to deny the obvious.
Mueller, however, is held to a higher standard, and may have been impeded in any number of ways. We may never have a legal charge of conspiracy between Trump and Russia.
But Trump exonerated? Despite the repeated claims to the contrary by pro Trump propagandists, a failure to obtain sufficient evidence to convict is no proof of innocence.
In the end — and that may be where we are— what difference does it make? If rampant and blatant government corruption from the top down isn’t reason enough for impeachment, the choice to allow our country to self destruct has already been made by those who could have made a difference. If we should, at this late date, actually get our country back, walking back the damage done will likely take more than one generation, so quickly we were undone.
As it stands, we may or may not be informed if the verdict is unfavorable to Trump. Which is, of itself, an indication of how badly our country has been damaged.
20
@Ross wrote: "In which case the most likely l’affaire Russe endgame may be a special prosecutor’s report that doesn’t make Trump look good or decent or moral, but which implicitly exonerates him of conspiring with the Russians, and makes a lot of Mueller watchers extremely unhappy in the process."
That conclusion, based on the thinnest evidence, seems like wishful thinking, considering that no one outside of Mueller's team has got a clue about what the SCO has found in the mountain of evidence that it has collected from various sources and has undoubtedly tried to corroborate.
The jury is still out, quite literally; let's just be patient and until it's in...
38
Given Mueller's success in doing the unimaginable - a nearly two year long investigation with virtually no leaks - any speculation about what he does or does not have is merely speculation. One could equally argue that Trump is fixated on the investigation precisely because he knows evidence is hanging out there. From what's already in the media, it doesn't seem the Trumps ever really gave a thought to the legality of their actions. If you want to talk about a lack of judgement, how can someone with Trump's history think it was a good idea to run for President? He had to know his whole life would be dissected?
57
@Bill I have read things where people who know him, like Howard Stern, say Trump ran for president not to do the job, but to get publicity and revive his brand. That sounds like something he would do. But why then would he actually take on the presidency when even he must have suspected it involved actual work that he wouldn't be able to do? Was there some hidden reward promised by somebody (Putin? some other billionaire?) that we have not heard about? What kind of person would figure he'd just wing it being president? Did Bannon convince him that deconstructing the government would be easy work, just smashing things?
17
cohen testified that Trump never expected to win; it was for him am infomercial, so why would he risk charges merely to hurt an opponent he never expected to beat?
Frankly all the fumbling when he won and throughout this first two years speaks of stumbling into a job never sought.
Cohen might have delivered a truth. It was a surprise to both sides that Trump won. Surprise me and friends on both sides of fthe vote
4
@Monty Brown "why would he risk charges merely to hurt an opponent he never expected to beat?"
Because there would be no close scrutiny if he didn't win,.
Cooperating with the Russians was to damage Hillary and seed business deals, not to win.
6
@Monty Brown
“... why would he risk ...” Because, as is well known, that’s what psychopaths do. They are guided by whatever enhances their immediate glorification.
That’s why they lie without fear of being exposed; that’s why they start wars without compassion for the dead; that’s why they cancel “rigged’ elections.
As much as I would like to find the impeachment smoking gun, I'm willing to accept an honest outcome which clears Trump of "collusion." Our democracy and our elections are too important to not investigate foreign intervention and influence.
I am not willing to accept Republican politicians who don't love their country enough to investigate and to defend the electoral process. Partisan politics has its limits.
As to Trump and his crimes, I'm confident that SDNY and others will help Trump into an orange jump suit.
82
@pjd
I also love it when prosecutors launch investigations to advance their political careers. It really gives me confidence in the criminal justice system.
8
@pjd
It is quite obvious by now that Mueller will not clear Trump. The weight of entanglement is on conspiracy side. At best (for Trump), the proof may be inches short of qui pro quo, but far from clearing Trump.
21
@Greg
To be fair, what public figure doesn't, at least in part, make decisions based on what course is most likely to advance their political careers?
8
The dossier never was supposed to be 100% accurate, given that the series of memos created by Christopher Steele were based on information gleaned from Russian operatives, who naturally has more motivation to trick than to inform.
That said, there were enough connections proven to tell me that some of its major outlines did indeed provide a kind of rough outline and background to 2016.
Connections such as the long history of Trump visits to Russia and aspirations to build in Moscow; the deep-standing ties with Felix Sater and other Russian mafia types that Trump routinely did business with; and the definite Putin preference for Donald Trump, so much so he opted to develop an email hacking scheme.
In the end, Ross, you don't really know any better than I how accurate the Dossier is.
But does that really matter? I think Robert Mueller has already uncovered enough evidence of Team Trump's willingness and eagerness to work with a foreign adversary to secure a victory.
And if that eagerness is the only proof of "collusion," it's still pretty damning. US election laws prohibit receiving any financial or in-kind help from foreign countries, let alone our biggest adversary--if offered, Team Trump was obliged to contact the FBI.
That they didn't, pretty much says it all.
359
@christineMcM Yeah, when I read Luke Harding's Collusion (his 2017 attempt to put forward a coherent account of the Russia scandal), I think he said that Steele estimated that the dossier might be 70-80% accurate. He just included everything he heard from what he judged to be semi-reliable sources without having 100% confidence in all of it.
48
It seems like an odd time to bring up the Steele Dossier and try to connect it to the Cohen public testimony.
It was just as odd and amusing to hear Trump claim once again "no collusion" after the hearing.
Odd and amusing because the Cohen hearing was explicitly prohibited from touching on any aspect of the Russian investigation. As I recall, the only thing Cohen said regarding Russia was "I had my suspicions". Not exactly exoneration material.
Do any of these premature prognosticators know what Flynn, Cohen and others have shared with the Special Prosecutor? Or what information has been gleaned from other sources, like recordings, documents and bank records? Or what associates of Roger Stone will say under oath?
We have a lot more to learn in the future. But based on what is already out there, I'd say it already looks pretty bad for the Trump Administration and businesses.
139
There's a useful maxim that's usually attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte: "Never attribute to malice that which can be sufficiently explained by incompetence." Napoleon could not have known of Donald Trump, which may explain why he apparently didn't consider the possibility that both explanations can simultaneously be true.
450
Trump is not incompetent. He's in it for the money. Russian oligarchs, probably at the behest of master spy Putin, have been dropping huge sums of money in Trump's lap since at least 2008, when a Russian oligarch paid Trump $100 million for a property he was trying to sell for $50 million. (Among other places, this info is available on a youtube clip of Trump bragging on Letterman.) Our biggest problem is that the massive bribes to the American president were legally pre-paid over a period of years, before he entered politics. But still exerting influence. You slather enough butter and honey on Trump's toast, he will gratefully remember. No matter if you want to destroy the US and its allies.
12
@KC
I like your Napoléon quote, but I also keep coming back to the “malevolence tempered by incompetence “ quote as the best description, to a greater or lesser degree, of Trump and his administration.
3
Your guess is as good as mine, but I wonder why we're so obsessed with speculation when reality is so obscene.
The Left, or at least the Democrats, are in a hard position. Having accepted, at least since President Clinton, the Republican narrative that corruption is actually a good thing, that lobbyists should write laws and elections should be auction blocks, they now find themselves without the voice or the theory to oppose the most openly corrupt government in history. We wake up after 30 years of neo-liberalism to find that what used to be called "Democracy" or "good government" is now called "socialism," and most of the country can recite the arguments against "socialism" in their sleep. And so we hope for the deus ex machina of Russian collusion.
23
@Martin
Ya know, I still have yet to hear any Democrat contender or elected official advocate for an economic system in which the production/distribution of goods is controlled by government fiat rather than by private enterprise, AND in which cooperation, rather than competition, guides economic activity.
Socialism IS such a system...
13
This, so much this.
The game afoot appears to be that Trump will be exonerated of masterminding Russia's activities in the elections.
The backwash from this will be overwhelming. "See? A witch hunt. Nothing there. Just as I told you." This tide of self-righteous self-justification will effectively swamp the evidence of Trump's incompetence and utter contempt for the oath he took to defend the Constitution. (We all know the litany - starting with intelligence betrayals in the opening days of the administration, continuing through obstruction of justice, highly suspicious diplomacy involving Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and 666 Fifth Ave, seamy cabinet appointees, Putin- and Kim- and Duterte-worship, one could go on...)
4
How about just considering Trump's conspicuous treatment of Putin? Like how he has never run out of compliments for the Russian leader and isn't even respectful of most anyone else? Or Trump taking Putin's words at face value and over the findings of our intelligence agents? Then there is Trump's strange insistence that we must get along with Russia, while he won't be civil to our longtime allies?
Really, Trump makes a strong indictment against himself.
120
@NM Trump has imposed harsher sanctions on Russia than Obama did; given lethal militaty aid to Ukraine and pulled out of the INF treaty becuase of Russian cheating, both actions which Putin strenuously opposes and Obama declined to do. He’s alsoibegun to strengthen our missile defenses, which Russia opposes.
Yes, he said nice things about Putin in 2016-17, but actions speak louder than words.
8
@NM
I really don’t understand this point of view.
Would you rather have president who needlessly antagonizes Putin and Russians? Would you rather we went back to the Cold War and risk nuclear annihilation by provoking a country with more than enough atomic bombs to turn America into a glowing wasteland?
I think Trump is absolutely doing the right thing by trying to keep peace with Russia, for the good of America. Why does there have to be another reason to do so.
9
@Richard Kuntz Those sanctions were pressed to Trump by Congress.
He also lobbied to get sanctions against Kilimnik lifted - and did.
37
Patience, grasshopper. Soon Robert Mueller will issue his report. Conservative heads will begin to explode. They will rush to explain things which cannot be explained. They will try to defend actions which cannot be defended. And soon, the rest of America will rejoice.
298
@Comet
True... if Mueller's report delivers the goods. And if it doesn't. It's also true... except it'll be the democrats that come undone. Now we can see why most of the voting public is neither democrat or republican.
6
@carl bumba
Please provide the data proving that "most of the voting public is neither democrat [sic] or republican [sic]."
9
Whew, that's reassuring. Instead of a malevolent intelligence at work that colluded with Russia to orchestrate Hillary Clinton's downfall, the president and his inner circle are probably just fools and wannabes.
That's what the choice has come down to with this bizarre administration: it's composed of either traitors or fools.
It's nice to have a choice, but I can't help feeling that a choice between, say, practical and visionary, or generous and frugal might be a better one to have.
Maybe Mueller didn't strike pay dirt. But if we're looking for reasons to get rid of this president and his entire leprous administration we need only witness the daily actions of a vulgar idiot at the helm, and the people around him who lie for a living. Say, Michael Cohen.
Or maybe the entire Republican Congress who, virtually to a man and woman, supports every idiotic, deceitful and nasty thing this president does.
But we'll have a chance to flush this gang back into the swamp fairly soon. I just hope when the time comes that it's not too late.
731
@gemli
Did you really not hesitate for a moment before switching to a new line of attack against Trump upon learning that the premise and grounds for your primary line of attack, which is in its third year now, are likely wrong, completely? If progressives aren't open minded, we're really in trouble....
2
@carl bumba Why do you assume that the premise for the "primary line of attack" is wrong? I assume you mean the charge of collusion between Trump and the Russians? There has been nothing officially revealed about this from Team Mueller, so how can you say it's "likely wrong"? On what grounds?
Moreover, there is much, much more that Trump and his gang have done, beyond very possible collusion with the Russians, and all of these issues are still pending thanks to a Republican do-nothing Congress for two years.
Finally, why do progressives have to be open-minded when the right certainly is not?
104
@Kingfish52
Any movement that is not open-minded will not lead to real progress, IMO.... and, of couse, 'two wrongs don't make a right'.
I can't list here all the grounds that make me doubt the whole Russian Collusion story - and they're not conclusive, anyway. I just think that everyone should be able to entertain the possibility that they are totally wrong. Of course, I think Trump should be impeached immediately if he colluded with the Kremlin to get himself elected president. But if he didn't and this huge accusation and its media fallout is wrong, shouldn't there be repurcussions and an examination of how we got so mislead? Just switching to another transgression, regardless of how heinous it is, would be wrong without learning anything from all this, IMO.
3
OK - So Ross Douthat thinks that the most reasonable conclusion to be drawn from the conduct of the Trump campaign is that they were just too inept to have engaged in a conspiracy with the Russians. Or maybe Manafort was working in a silo and others in the campaign failed to notice that he changed the Republican platform to benefit the Russians, or that the meeting in Trump Tower was really about adoption, or that Trump celebrated Comey's firing with the Russian ambassador, or that Trump did not have a long history of running a laundry for the Russians. As we used to say in the South Bronx of my youth - Yeah Right !
593
@ALLEN GILLMAN Did Donald Trump say that Donald Trump Jr. has the worst judgment of anyone I know, before or after Jr. told a Russian who promised him Russian government information that would damage Hillary Clinton, and he said how great that would be, in an easily identifiable email conversation? That is a little inept. Then he emailed Kushner and Manafort to join him. Which they did. Just a little inept.
1
Contrary to the ongoing game of punditry trying to dissect the goings on, I am going to wait for the facts.
The Mueller report may or may not come out soon (again conjecture, but no one knows) and it may or may not have irrefutable evidence. (again, conjecture whether the public may even be allowed to see the complete text)
What does give me comfort is that Democrats are in control of Congress now and the oversight is ONLY just beginning. (after 2 years of soft pedaling by republicans) AOC opened up a direct line of questioning the other day to get to the heart of the matter with the President's tax return.
Until then, just follow the rule of law wherever it may lead.
329
@FunkyIrishman And with adults back in charge of the House of Representatives the Mueller investigation loses some of its importance since there are so many other investigations pending. We no longer have to rely upon him alone for our salvation.
66
@Charles Focht
And those adults back in charge of the House of Representatives will do their best to make sure that the Mueller investigation report is made public. Had Dems not taken back the house, Mueller's report would surely have been thrown in the shredder.
26
@FunkyIrishman
When you're elected president do you then lose your right to due process protections? I'm no legal anything, but I thought thought they needed 'probable cause' and such things to "warrant" an investigstion, regardless whether it's against Trump or Clinton. Isn't this like the presumed guilt of a witch trial?
2
Michael Cohen's testimony was limited to topics that are settled or public enough to where nothing truly new would be revealed. There were many questions he was not allowed to answer. We did, however, learn that the Southern District of NY is likely conducting one or more additional investigations whose topics and targets we have no clue about.
We won't know what the Steele Dossier or Russiagate amount to until both Mueller and the federal prosecutors bring their cases to court. One way to learn new information is to read Mueller's incredibly long indictment of Stone. At 800 pages, it takes time and patience to wade through it. We might not see Mueller's final report, but he is leaving trails of breadcrumbs for those who want to know.
We know lots of GOP members of Congress took Russian money through the auspices of the NRA and others. We know all kinds of things. Hopefully, we will some day get to read what ties all the things we know and don't know together.
For now, we know very little and what we do know should scare us into a constitutional reboot.
---
Things Trump Did While You Weren’t Looking [2019] https://wp.me/p2KJ3H-3h2
159
I misremembered the 800-page document I referred to in my comment. It is the Manafort sentencing memo and not the Stone indictment. My mistake.
https://www.rimaregas.com/2019/01/01/things-trump-did-while-you-werent-looking-2019/2/
27
@Rima Regas
What scares me is the possibility that many of our educated liberals (self-proclaimed) would not consider for a moment that they were mistaken (and mislead) in the face of conclusive counter-evidence for their views. When BEING right ot wrong is more important than what IS right or wrong, we've got problems.
3
@carl bumba
Counter-evidence? What are you talking about? Can you provide links to your information?
7
Ross - I keep being surprised that you don't seen to know about gerunds. I've held off for a very long time but decided to address it today.
"instead of Putin offering Trump a sweetheart deal," - should be Putin's
"he witnessed Trump taking a call" - should be Trump's
I hope you're wrong about the content too, of course.
13
@RKD
Hmmmm. You think? "instead of Putin's offering Trump a sweetheart deal"? "he witnessed Trump's taking a call"?
That doesn't work for my ear. Maybe "instead of Putin's offering to Trump of a sweetheart deal" or "he witnessed Trump's taking of a call" ? In Douthat's original, the sentence from which the former is taken probably just needs to be revised from scratch. For that matter, the whole column feels a bit sloppily written.
I myself had noticed, for example, a dangling modifier:
"While retaining an official agnosticism, my sense after Cohen’s testimony is that the odds are as low as they’ve been since this whole affair started . . . ."
I'd suggest: "While I retain an official agnosticism, my sense . . . ." or "While retaining an official agnosticism, I . . . ."
The content of a Douthat column is never worth worrying about, and this one is no exception. He presumably earns a steady stream of income from right-wing sources, and so he keeps spewing out right-wing drivel.
Taking apart his prose style is at least a pleasant diversion.
3
@RKD. Sure those are gerunds? Might they be participles?
Why would Manafort share internal campaign polling data with a Russian intelligence officer?
Did the Russians just take an interest in the horse race?
They could get THAT info from the national polls, for free.
The internal polls would show which states were in play, and which voters might put Trump over the top.
Since we know the Russians avidly interfered with the election by penetrating social media, it is quite clear why they wanted Trump's internal polling data.
135
@ed connor
It's a lot of speculation.... I would then speculate that if patriotic Russians or the Russian government wanted to weaken American geopolitical domination, they would just need to do enough to trigger our inherently adversarial institutions, like our media. Their allergy-like reactions to anything against the opposition and/or establishment, like Trump or Bernie, means that it would only take a few rubles (or yuan) to buy an "antigen".
1
@ed connor
Tell me this: What is so secret about this polling data? Does the fate of the election ride on it? Don't you think that the Russia intell groups have ways to get better information?
2