Generally a good assessment and summary of Brexit. However, I disagree with Roger's statement near the article' end: "Liberal democracy has failed too many of its citizens. Brexit and Trump prove that". This may be valid for GB, but certainly not for the US. Liberalism never gained a consistent upper hand in this country post WWII. It was constantly in the crosshairs of the US conservative movement, that gained a strong foothold with the election of President Reagan. Since then the country drifted right, with a mild intervening tuck towards center by President Clinton. The supreme court became increasingly more conservative and arguably political, witnessing the Florida vote count stoppage and election of President G W Bush. The latter's military adventurism, from which we are still suffering, bolstered the defense industry that became a strong backer of predominantly the Republican party, but sucked in center-right leaning Democrats as well. Through his tax cuts and economic mismanagement the illiberal Bush eventually sunk us and the world into the great recession, from which most countries are still recovering. It also let to the mid-eastern refugee problem, both root causes contributing to Brexit. In the US conservatism was fighting President Obama successfully all the way, with the SCOTUS's decision on Citizens United being the capstone of conservative policy. Liberalism is not the cause of Trump's rise, it is the consequence of mostly rightwing Republican policies.
24
As the folly of Brexit has proven over the past three years, we cannot trust 'the will of the people'. Referendums are no replacement for parliamentary democracy, or a republic. If this referendum had occurred in the 18th century it would have been termed 'the rule of the mob'. We elect people for a reason: to lead us. Brexit is essentially a colossal failure in leadership. Cameron was the first to fail by failing to control his restive Conservatives and by calling the referendum in the first place. May was the next to fail in abiding by the results of the plebiscite, when she knew she had the option to ignore the result. In between are the sordid clowns like Johnson and Farage et al who acted as opportunists and tilted to where they knew the wind was going. Britain now needs someone who is willing to take the metaphorical bullet to say and do what needs to be said and done: The Referendum Result Must Be Ignored. Someone who has the courage to put this to a vote in Parliament with all the requisite arm twisting required. Where is that leader?
66
Brexit is obviously a mess for which there might not be a workable solution. But Roger Cohen makes a terrific point when he talks about emotional transference and why people in Swindon voted for Brexit. Voters in that part of England voted for reasons of identity, symbolism, self-image and psychological bias. They were like a lot of voters in the U.S. and elsewhere. Hitler claimed that his appeal was because he offered simple solutions to complicated problems. And, as Ronald Reagan once said, in politics, if you have to explain, you lose.
44
Does anyone, I mean anyone, loudly complaining today understand the notion of "in the long run" or notion of "pay now to reap later"? Et al.?
Brexit, in the long run, is good for Britain and the world. In the short term, of course, chaos happens. Honda and others will leave.
So what? Britain is bigger than Honda.
It is naive to assume that staying with EU, and the short term stability it afforded, was preferable to hard decisions and short term chaos.
Of course all of the western world is lashing out because of immigration (mostly of the dark and non-Christian kind). American voters dream of 1950, Austria, Poland, Hungary, Italy look back wistfully at Mussolini and Adolf, and the Brits want Downton Abbey or some such perversion.
What this article reports, quite well, is that the reasons that people voted for Brexit were not kosher (indistinguishable from jealous rage that leads to self harm and the likes of Trump). Fear and loathing has led to this, for sure. But, the long term economic interests of Britain are definitely served.
Britain's economy has no interests served when tethered to authoritarianism-seeking France and Germany, profligate Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece, and downright kleptocrats of Eastern Europe. British products and services, and its law and order, and most importantly, its culture and traditions render it unique; association with EU countries was besmirching.
Sell if you want, I am bullish on the UK.
10
@Kalidan
Sorry Kalidan, but "splendid isolation" is as irrelevant as American Isolationism in a contemporary global economy, world interaction and mutual defense, regardless of anyone's ultranationalistc John Bullish-ness.
26
@Kalidan
"In the short term, of course, chaos happens."
Perfect. The "mind" of a Brexiteer on full display.
25
Nice to see someone here making the argument for British backbone and moral superiority to ‘profligate’ continentals. Best of British!
4
This is a demonstration of the same British incompetence that (in no particular order): lost them America; left a chaotic, bloody legacy in the 1947 partition of the Indian subcontinent; left a festering sore in Palestine; gave the world socialism; made a mess of the map of the Middle East; stage a trumped up conflict for a pointless island in the south Atlantic; nearly lose two major, avoidable wars; brutality subjugate and split Ireland; manufacture the most unreliable cars ever built outside the Soviet Union; cling to a medieval monarchy; endure rationing and privation long after WWII ended; implement austerity to benefit the banks; back a criminal war scheme in Iraq; and on and on.
Why is anyone surprised? They have always been governed by twits.
More, why does anyone care? Britain on its own is irrelevant at best. It is a relatively minor island off the European isthmus of the Asian continent.
Oh, and they have terrible weather.... Europe is better off without them.
44
@D Priest
Thank you for this balaced view of the UK. I believe that “socialism” was flourishing generally across Western Europe, particularly in Germany and France; the notion that both world wars were “avoidable” is interesting, and Britain in 1940, with the help of Canadian pilots, in fact saved Europe from Nazi domination. It is unclear at what point the UK nearly “lost” either world war. The UK did not invade the Falklands and the response to lawless aggression was proportionate and successful. The Queen is a constitutional sovereign and also Head of State in Canada. The last time I looked the UK had about twice the GNP of Canada, so not sure where that puts your country. And I have driven British cars for 50 years, without significant problems, and some envy on the continent, especially for Aston Martin.
16
There is a German saying "Reisende soll man nicht aufhalten", roughly translated to "don't hold back those who want to go away". It is a pity that the UK wants to leave, it is pure idiocy, and of course there should be a second referendum, now that people know (unlike 2016) what the likely consequences of Brexit will be. Too bad it's pretty unlikely to happen; the referendum, that is.
Having said that: please go already. After two years of paralysis it is about time to get back to normal work and to start the real future of the EU, AND, at the same time, let the UK collect the pieces of their glorious imagined future. Perhaps 15-20 years in the future a new generation in the UK can make a new attempt to overcome splendid isolation.
41
Mr Cohen, thank you for this piece. I must disagree with your conclusion that Brexit and Trump result from liberalism. What about predatory global capitalism? The creation of securities consisting of fake financial products, the abdication of corporate social responsibility in service of rapacious institutional investors led to the elimination of industrial employment as a source of security for average people. Hedge funds used to exist for commodities and currency. Now, they take over and destroy businesses and the communities reliant on them in the name of "creative disruption."
It seems we are surprised that politicians are ineffective when their power has been ceded to a deregulated, amoral economic system which proudly hoards the money and leaves citizens in a consumptive wasteland.
11
Strange paradox is scary.
For example: Churchill.
He's the eternally quote-worthy perfect English hero, isn't he?
Also a ferocious racist and probable war criminal.
Gives you pause or drives you storming back to denial, bigotry, and nationalism
5
Britain never came to grips with the fact that they are a rather small country, unlike Germany and Japan, who had the concept beat into them and who were generally freed from their past. I get this all of the time when speaking with expats, who work small disparaging remarks about the US and others into their conversation. So now a couple of generations will be sacrificed to the fanciful return of Empire. I am looking forward to a future NYT’s article about the English “Brain Drain”, the young leaving for the world. Immigration problem solved!
10
Good article on the incompetence and disarray surrounding the Brexit mess. My only complaint concerns this: "Liberal democracy has failed too many of its citizens. Brexit and Trump prove that."
It's not liberal democracy; it's the Conservatives who failed. The Brexit vote was Cameron's idiotically misjudged decision. The con job that swung things to Brexit was engineered from the Conservative benches: clowns like Johnson, Gove, and Rees-Mogg, masterminded by the brilliantly evil Cummings and egged on by the pathetically idiotic Farage.
Liberal democracy was the vehicle they drove, but the Tories were the drunks at the wheel.
13
When Policy is presented for approval without due consideration for informed discussion and debate, democracy takes a hit, and governance becomes chaotic.
In Canada and prior to elections, platforms for various parties are presented to entice the electorate. Seldom do they incorporate details of substance on which the electorate can make an informed decision. It is a mugg's game and when we buy into this pap we are fools. As a result our parliamentary system becomes the source of ennui.
My criticism is not for the electorate who have, in unwarranted fashion, been blamed for dysfunctional government. I blame the elites and their camp followers for failing to perform their duties that the "spirit of Parliament" expects. When a vote is called, don't obfuscate. Deal with issues. Inform rather than "sell". Present the costs and the benefits.
Regretfully, this is not a perfect world. If it were, we would not have the self-serving, the corruption and the bullying that we have today. These are some of the factors behind the frustrations of our times.
Is it a dream to consider one's country as a "land of hope and glory"?
1
I wish the Brits the best but I too agree that is is better to try and move forward, stand up, take your lumps and resolve your problems with the cooperation of neighbors and allies. I fear the worst for the US where trump is trying his best to destroy those relationships and cozy up to Putin.
I somehow cannot help using George Orwell's Animal Farm as an analogy here. For year the press in Britain has been writing that can be summed up neatly to "London Good, Brussels Bad". In animal Farm it was "Four legs good, Two legs bad". In 2016 before the referendum the anthem "Beasts of England" was being sung full throated voice that it could be heard across the channel. The brexiters want to replace brusque Tusk and drinker Juncker with someone that of their own . It is too late to realize now that it is going to be Boris, the bumbler and May, the doomsday deliverer.
3
The E.U. currently negotiates trade deals for 512 million, Britain will negotiate for 66 million. Naturally both the Americans and the Asians will put the interests of the E.U. far ahead of the British. Frankly, I don't know how the British are going to trade profitably. The U.S. can only compete globally because of it's sheer size and ruthless brand of capitalism. The E.U. has the advantage of education, size, and Eastern European labor. Britain is going to find themselves isolated and increasingly desperate.
3
An article written to the point - brilliant!
A do over is in order, a great number of old fogies who voted to leave, have already Brexited to "parts unknown". Just get it over with.
1
"Britain’s decision to break from that is a curious act of self-harm, linked, like the election of Donald Trump, to the desperation of our times."
This points to a critical issue - if not THE critical issue - affecting the next century and indeed the future of the human world: Can Western democracies, which have been only shakily democratic while by turns supporting and afflicted by plutocracy and end-stage vulture-capitalism, survive world calamities?
They barely managed to survive WWII, with no small bit of luck, a fortuitously remarkable leadership and sense of common purpose both nonexistent today, and, notably, the benefit of strong industrial capitalism cooperating with government. Can they survive the combination of the Reagan/Thatcherism sleight-of-hand Restoration, the discrediting and corrupting perpetual warmaking and covert action conducted since WWII to advance and prop up corporate neo-imperialism (and white supremacy), the destabilizing post-Cold War structural devolution, AND most of all the impending greatest crisis of unaddressed climate change?
It's perhaps a bit offhand to cite it, but I recall an apt quote that is on point here, from a LeCarre character: "Do you know what is killing Western democracy. . . ? Greed. And constipation: moral, political, aesthetic."
Can Western democracy survive itself, in its still only half-formed state?
2
That’s the best summary I have read about Brexit.
I said it before but this is the best metaphor I can come up with:
Brexit feels like an amputation below the knee without anesthetic because you don’t like the sock you are wearing.
Let’s try to be our best self: admit a mistake and correct it.
Britain can never leave Europe anyway.
But it can get lost.
Best to stay then.
The best time to fix it is now.
Best of luck to all my British friends.
1
Democracy seems to have reached its reductio ad absurdum in the major English speaking nations.
3
Many of the commenters who are pro-EU express a lot of contempt for Britain. They dislike it’s history and it’s institutions and regard it as a washed up old country. So why would anyone who likes and admires the UK take them seriously? They’re just haters.
1
The idiocy is the assumption that the People cannot change their minds - cannot have second thoughts - cannot learn from experience. Before this momentous step, it would be simply prudent to confirm the will of the People.
2
Another referendum please. Brexit plans are masochistic, and a nightmare for the future, as Britain will self-isolate and suffer from their own rigid and thoughtless adventure. They are in a funk alright. I understand that stupidity remains in ample supply...but do they really want to lose what they have now...so all that'll be left is the crying?
1
Yes to everything—except—liberalism did not free us from racism. There was very little budging.
I am a retired US citizen living in the UK with my British husband. So I have no "vote" in any referendum on Brexit, past or (hopefully) future. But I do have an opinion on it, and my life here will be impacted by it -- I'm certainly not going back to the US while Trump is wreaking havoc there.
What really annoys me is that those most responsible for this Brexit fiasco have so far gotten off "scot free". Cameron, whose constituency neighbours mine, is hiding out in his chi-chi garden caravan office, writing his memoirs (and undoubtedly whitewashing his most impolitic, cavalier role in it all.) Principal architects Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Nigel Farage have failed to advance any coherent plan to deal realistically with the fallout.
Theresa May should have had the courage long ago to tell them point blank to "put up or shut up." But she has put the interest of her party well ahead of the country. Instead she stubbornly clings to "my way or the highway". The Tories are self-destructing anyway. So why? For what? Didn't have to be that way. Sad, so sad.
I can only hope that, if Britain does leave the EU on March 29th, the albatross of Brexit will be hung around their necks for decades to come. But that is scant consolation, since we all, not they, will be adversely impacted by their obsessive, dictatorial folly.
The Brexit referendum wasn't held on a level playing field -- the Leave campaign was predicated entirely on lies. Just like Trump in the US.
14
'Those who forget History ...' The EU, the UN, NATO, the WTO, etc. did not emerge after 1945 by accident. Over 31 years two massive World Wars had utterly changed the balance of power after 300 years of European imperialist ascendency. Not Britain, France, or Germany was strongest, but the USA & USSR. More important, most people saw that it was not just the 'bad guys', Hitler, the Kaiser, Napoleon, etc. that were the problem. It was rampant nationalism itself that caused and drove both wars to such massive destruction. That Internationalist spirit since then took us through the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Bloc, decolonization, and even the 2008 meltdown.
Mussolini promised to Make Italy Great Again. Such promises may win elections, but they do not end well in a complex world economy based on peace and international trade.
Brexit schmexit. Make the World Great!
2
Calling out the labor party for anti zionism must include the idea that 6 of the MP in the Labour Party are not anti Jewish- they are Jewish, just not zionist. And a few studies showed the labor party was no worse than other parties in bigotry, at 00.1%. This played big in Britain, and in the NYT, and will hurt the chances of a successful 2nd referendum. Britain is small enough to have Cambridge Analytica successfully manipulate a Brexit, and it paved the way for other manipulations.
1
Only the NY Times could be clumsy enough to publish an article about Brexit without mentioning the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Now an open border, it would become a hard border with Brexit. Between the tory toff who suggested the Republic leave the EU and throw in its lot with the UK and Labour's disinterest in the border issue, it's a sorry scene.
3
So now it's all the fault of "liberal democracy"?
2
Of course Putin, having engineered Brexit, is overjoyed.
1
It is no coincidence that the two most fervently neo-liberal economies in the West, Britain and the US, each suffered such huge political reversals back-to-back.
They are the two countries whose societies have been rotted most visibly by economic inequality.
There are many in the EU - especially in social-democratic Germany - who will be relieved to see Britain leave. Its neo-liberal economic policies have been widely disseminated and copied in Germany, which not coincidentally has seen extreme social inequality begin to rear its ugly head in the last few years, which in turn has led to a shocking embrace of right-wing populism.
It is time for neoliberal capitalism to be dismantled before it rots everything from the inside out. It is time for moral leadership. We look to America hoping that Trump’s successor offers a more humane vision for the future of western civilization.
4
Politically speaking, adjective-laden speeches scare the bejeesus out of me. It’s a matter of seeing the purges and pogroms behind the adjectives.
You can’t blame liberal democracy for the fact that there are plenty of people in the world who prefer not to think critically and who admire autocrats and demagogues.
Rather than fault a political system that allows such people to express themselves, why not answer the challenge they pose to liberal democracy by proposing good policies and arguing for them effectively, that is, respond with more liberal democracy.
Yes, a 2nd referendum on Brexit. Let the people, newly informed by two years of action and reflection, speak. Why require a nation to subscribe to the notion that it’s unacceptable to change one’s mind? That’s a prescription for bad decision making.
8
There was a time when Britain was determined to maintain is sovereignty against the claims of people across the water that interdependence was better. Rather than share their sovereignty with people outside of Britain, they were willing to sacrifice both blood and treasure, to ensure that Britain alone would have a voice in British affairs, even when those affairs involved others.
The result was war on a global scale ... a war which Britain lost ... with the loss of the first British empire ... and American Independence.
It seems to me that Brexit is as short-sighted and as self-destructive for Britain as were the policies that precipitated the American Revolution.
3
“L’il” ol England has a powerful and technologically advanced military with the capability to project its power all over the globe. You can’t say the same for Brazil or India.
as we use to say now on the EUropean continent : "once we thought the british nation was a wise and educated one" .. that is our actual feeling towards this drowning nation, wich sabotaged its own vessel. And now accuses continentals of being responsible for the aftermath of its very own egotic folly.
2
L’il England, erstwhile Great Britain, needs to also pull a Brexit at the UN and stop warming a permanent seat at the Security Council. India and Brazil not SC permanent members, but L’il England?
1
In 2017, trade secretary and leading Brexiteer, Liam Fox, promised that Britain would have “replicated” 40 of the 69 trade deals with the countries and regions with which the EU has trade deals by the leave date of March 29, 2019. In fact, as of today, the department of trade has only managed to finalize “continuity agreements” with 7 of the countries, and they do not include Japan, which takes British exports worth £9.9 billion per year. In the past few days the Trump administration has demanded that Britain remove trade barriers to the import of American agricultural products e.g. chicken washed in chlorine and hormone-fed beef, which are banned by the EU.
In the meantime, politicians like Fox, Johnson, Gove and Rees-Mogg keep promising that Brexit “will make Britain great again” and despite the growing evidence of looming economic disaster, many people still believe it. Sad.
3
A few week ago I saw Asterix and the Britons on Netflix, very funny, a clear mirror of the events with the Brexit.....enjoy!
1
Still not going to happen. There isn’t a majority of MPs who would vote for a second referendum - they’re too timid to do so. The vote has been branded as “will of the people” so that that slogan is now embedded. Mention the lies, the illegality, the misconceptions, the lies again and the unknowns again and again and they have no import on people’s beliefs. And “belief” it must be, because facts don’t support leaving - the “best deal”, one where we are better off, more successful and have a voice on a global/continental platform, is remaining.
But now it is “voting leave wasn’t about money”. Note how the original line of “Global Britain!!!” with its dreams of success and enterprise has become “Well I don’t care if I’m poorer” - or a recent one, “it’ll do us good to have less food, like the Blitz again” (always spoken by one born after said war, curiously). Of course, the same people will be the first to melt down when the shops sell out of their favourites or the Final Demands start hitting the doormat, but saying “We told you so” every day from now until the planet boils us all alive (eta 2050) will be wearisome and perhaps mean-spirited.
But none of it will fix the gaping void Brexit has revealed in our politicians. The Establishment looks after their own and thus nothing will change. The UK structure is too rigid to make positive changes to its constitutional system - the boys with the Old School Tie will be safe, and everyone (except us plebs) will still get paid.
22
Both Brexit and the Trump election were heavily influenced by Russian propaganda. There may have also been collusion, but even without collusion, there is the obvious fact that Russia influenced these elections. America's 2016 election was tragic and damaging to our Democracy, but in 2018 we undid part of it, and in 2020 we have a chance to get our country back on the right path. But the will of the Russian oligarchs still prevails in England. Brexit is likely to be a huge setback to England and Western Europe, which would be a victory for Russia. If the English have any sense, they will have a second vote on Brexit, this time with less influence from Russian propaganda.
49
@Charlie Calvert It's true that Russian interference possibly (probably?) tipped the scales in both cases. Unfortunately, there are other even bigger problems, like the escalating rancor between different political tribes in Western countries, the return of ethnic nationalism and a dramatic decline is prosperity and democratic rights throughout the world. It's important to focus on repairing our political economy so our elections can be more be resilient to influence - and so we can still have a system that is worth protecting.
12
Impossible to muddle through mayhem. Another look at Kipling or Blake might have been warning about tiger, tiger. The populace was played by the Russian Bear, just as in America, but in Britain there is at least a chance to say 'We were wrongly led for the wrong reasons, and came to the wrong conclusion." Have another vote and another cup of tea, and calm down.
Would that another vote were the answer here in the US.
3
Consider how it seems to people in Northern Ireland, who voted against Brexit, and will probably suffer most from it. The UK is not England.
3
Honda left because they closed the plant that produces diesel cars as they move to electric. It was not about Brexit. The company is on record. But that has not stopped the pity trip to Swinton. Why would Honda lie? The industry is going through an upheaval as it transitions to electric power. To use this to support Brexit is weak at best. Honda said it was going to happen with or without Brexit. So no one needed to travel to Swinton and use hardship to sell a political idea.
5
Thank you for going physically to Swindon to report on Reality Brexit and for quoting young people, the long term victims of Fantasy Brexit. We live on a planet with worldwide integrated economies - there is no Exit. It is time to address worldwide problems with reality based practical solutions that actually work in Swindon, in Soweto, Tokyo, and Flint Michigan.
6
@Bryan McKown Ummmnnn, actually Bryan, there is an exit if the political will is there to exit. This is not to say that there won't be economic and social consequences to an exit. Every choice carries consequences, including the one to remain within the status quo as it has been established during the past 40 or so years (the neoliberal, so-called "free trade" era, beginning with Reagan). The current neoliberal regime isn't a force of nature like the tides rollling in and out. It is a political choice, made largely by an elite group of businessmen and the politicians they've bought. What has been imposed can also be rejected. Brexit is a thinking out loud about rejection of a small piece of this status quo. For this, I say, Viva Britannia!
1
@Lotzapappa ... Good to hear from Nebraska. But, I have to ask you--Brexit from what? May's 585 page "Plan" keeps the UK in the EU regulatory system, but the Brits no longer get any say. May's "Plan" is nothing but a 2 year TRO - the status quo but with no power. That's why the Tory Right voted against May. That's why cross party MP's abandoned May and started a new centrist party - The Independent Group (TIG).
Mr. Cohen did some good work getting quotes from young UK citizens. I don't think a plant worker at Honda's Swindon Plant who will not be building a next generation Honda will be chanting "Rule Britannia" anytime soon.
Please read those young persons' statements in the article.
2
The only good Brexit is No Brexit. (Thanks Colin C.)
5
Brexit is insanity.
It will break North Ireland and Scotland out of the UK, leave shriveled England inside a hangman's noose of trade-barrier custom-checkpoint rope.
Roger's best line: "Trump is not forever. Brexit is."
17
@Dick Purcell
Scotland is going nowhere. They have been threatening it for ages, but ultimately, they are too canny to break away. They get too much benefit from the UK to leave.
Northern Ireland will almost certainly leave the UK and unite with Ireland in the case of a hard Brexit, which is one of the arguments against a second referendum.
Like net negative states here, the braying lies of the Brexiters about the benefits of reconstituting the Empire are laughable if they weren’t so harmful. Populism has its limits.
6
British pomposity and arrogance, which should be trademarked, make me feel very unsympathetic. The troll in me hopes they do the hard Brexit so that they suffer severe economic pain and are forced to turn to the World Bank and the IMF for help. But surely the poor would suffer much more than the elite, stiff upper lip, “it just isn’t proper” weasels who have no doubt already moved their assets to tax havens and secured their vacation spots on the Côte d’Azur for several summers hence. Corbyn and May are easily two of the most pathetic politicians in British history, completely inept. Hopefully both are run out of office.
5
Britain needs to leave the EU just as much as America needs a wall.
16
As another paid up member of the liberal elite, I must demur at Mr. Cohen's efforts to "save Brexiters from themselves." It smacks of paternalism and actually is undemocratic. Brits DID vote to leave the EU: just as Americans voted for Donald Trump. Whether they did so for good or bad or stupid reasons is beside the point.
Yes, Roger the pro-Brexit side did exaggerate and distort and obfuscate. They played to the gallery's worst instincts and xenophobia. However, it's the duty of an informed citizenry to INFORM themselves of the truth and separate the wheat from the chaff. The British failed (as did Americans with Trump) to reckon with the con artists and both are paying a steep price.
Elections have consequences. Sometimes they're harsh. Have a hard exit and restart the conversation about the value of the Union immediately thereafter. But abide by the results. Or you will forever be cast as liars who frustrated the will of ordinary Britons. They will hate you forever. And rightly so.
7
Fun fact: the referendum itself was legally non-binding.
2
@Laurence Bachmann
Wife: "But dear, the turn you just made will lead us right off this approaching cliff!"
Husband: "Shut up - decisions have consequences!"
2
Brexit and Trump are Anglo-Saxon diseases bred by nostalgia for the past, in most cases a past whose glory depended on destroying other nations. The inability of Brits and Americans to come to terms with their ever declining standards of living is the catalyst for desperate measures falsely promising a brighter future.
Hopefully a second referendum will stem the rot in one of those two nations. As for the other, it may face no alternative other than civil war, since Trump's redneck supporters are loaded with guns.
6
Just another example of dancing with ghosts. We have a whole party dedicated to wasting time on nonsense while real problems go unsolved.
4
'I grew up in a Britain where “the Continent,” a faintly distasteful geographical mass associated with rabies and garlic, was far away. ' Yeah, but "The Empire" was close, eh? (That's a Canadian "eh".) Remember the world-map on the school-room wall--so much red? Canada was red (and here we celebrated the Loyalists and Late Loyalists). Australia and New Zealand were red. Lots of Africa was red. India was red. Jamaica was red...
3
@Over 80
I do remember, and you are completely correct. Until the age of 14, I was never in a school room, post office, or any civic building that didn’t have a picture of the Queen on the wall, and I still feel much more at home in England or Canada than I do in the US, even after almost half a century. The culture is so much less aggressive, for all the violence of the Empire’s history.
1
A very lucid view of the Brexit situation. It almost makes the situation in the US with our ludicrous "mob Boss" president and his cadre of incompetent crooks look manageable.
I would like to see someone explain the nefarious actors and forces (other than Boris Johnson and the Farage guy) behind the doubtless very expensive initial Brexit campaign, and what were their real motives.
3
@Michael McGuinness
As always follow the money.
I'm sure it will lead back to Putin. The European Union kept his ambitions at bey, now not so much.
@Michael McGuinness
I wonder if Russia had a hand in it? Brexit serves Russian interests quite well.
1
@Michael McGuinness
Real motives? Personal profit. Rees Mogg has already moved some of his financial business to Dublin. A fanatical public brexiter and a private pragmatic profiteer.
The English are kind of losing it. They can't figure out what they want.
These are not the English we all know and don't really love that much. But whom we do respect.
They need to get it together. Figure out what they're going to do and do it, right or wrong.
English up, English.
1
Churchill favored a "United States of Europe" -- the EU -- to which the UK would belong.
4
No, he favoured a US of Europe to which the UK would not belong.
1
I have never seen my beloved UK act so idiotically (of course as Americans, the pot calls the kettle black) - but where in all this sad mess is the blame for David Cameron who insouciantly chose for political advantage to hold the referendum in the first place, and last I heard, has retired wealthy and is doing water sports on millionaire's islands? He ought to be pilloried, at least in the press, as should his minions. I blame him and the despicable Farage equally.
2
@Suzanne
Cameron was told by his MPs that they faced electoral defeat because the voters wanted Brexit. Hence the referendum. Cameron no doubt felt Brexit would lose, but either way this is exactly how democracy is supposed to work.
Indeed, you might say that the result of the referendum justified the referendum.
The Brexit people are like Dumpf. They want to make Britian great again!
They cannot deal or negotiate, in part because they are all reaction and have no idea what it is they want--they just need to throw a fit because they are unhappy about something.
Like the USA, their policies have gotten them where they are and they refuse to recognize that the enemy is themselves.
All they want is their former glory---largely based on the exploitation of other peoples around the world.
Just take a quick look at some the angry sore spots around the world; the Middle East and India/Pakistan.
All former British colonies were exploited for the glory of England. When the British quit these places, they left a still-festering mess.
In 1951 a British oil official said with respect to giving Iran a stake in its own oil production:
"Any real concession on this point is impossible. If we reached settlement on Mussadiq's terms, we would jeopardise not only British but also American oil interests throughout the world." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Persian_Oil_Company
CIA intervention in Iran to protect British oil interests is the basis for Iran's hostility.
1
Brexit and Trumpism are like all cons; they work through misdirection. By focusing the mark’s attention in one direction (look at the immigrants!) the con picks his pocket. A good con man leaves the room before the mark realizes he has been had. The problem with Trump and the Brexiteers is that they cannot find a way out. Neither will have a happy ending.
5
"People were left feeling empty," a post-economic-crisis anomie, you suggest. That emptiness does not in and of itself drift to reactionary ethnonationalism. It is lead; it is shown a pathway.
In the US case, examine the NYT best sellers lists from 2009 to 2016. This kind of ideology flourished during the Obama period, as if "hidden in plain sight." It was cultivated by the figures who are now household names, some who have had considerable influence on the current administration. They seemed too silly to be taken seriously. And yet, 2016's winner based his campaign script on (what used to be peripheral) media figures pedding stuff like "Adios America" and the "secret history of the Democratic Party."
Bertrand Russell said, "The less rational a man is, the oftener he will fail to perceive how what injures others also injures him, because hatred or envy will blind him."
Hated of immigrants is at the heart of Brexit. Britain has been in decline for 100 years, so what better scapegoat for that decline than immigrants?
Of course that under-educated, under-skilled and uninformed bloke who stares back in the mirror every morning couldn't be to blame.
If the EU is smart, they don't allow a second referendum. Britain, today, is a dog's breakfast. Let that island sink.
1
The elites don't know how to deal with ordinary folks.
That's all
1
Ms. May mishandled it. That's all.
Vote for Brexit was a vote against the EU's imposing "immigration a outrance!" As simple as that! Author does not appear capable of understanding that since he lives in an upper class milieu where the threat of tens of thousands of immigrants do not pose a threat. Amazing that RC can write about British politics w/o alluding to the one man who was truly honest, Enoch Powell, Conservative M.P. of a half century ago who declared presciently that GB faced a ghastly future if it went forward to allow 50,000 migrants PER YEAR into the country, able to compete with the working classes and middle classes with the added advantage of gov't subsidies! Powell's"Rivers of Blood " speech, title drawn from the Aeneid which I studied in classics dept. @ U. of ALABAMA decades ago, summed up the bleak future little whites faced who would be the true victims.Author missed the boat on this one just as he failed to see the demographic shift in France's large cities decades when the working classes were forced out of the urban centers and into dreary, dangerous h.l.m's by the wealthy. While middle and working class Paris was being destroyed by the rich, Macron's constituency,Cohen was writing about the beauty of Guillaume Apollinaire's poetic verse. As if anybody besides himself cared!
Tsar Vladimir Putin and his troll army (the "Internet Research Agency" of St. Petersburg) pushed for Brexit the same way they worked to elect Donald Trump, and for the same reason: to weaken representative democracy and Russia's competitors.
It's time for the people to take back control. Another Brexit vote would do that, and allow Britain to stay in the EU.
3
If
1. One shoots oneself in the foot
and
2. One gets the chance to jump in the TARDIS and go back in time to unshoot oneself in the foot
then
3. One should do it. Second referendum. Doctor's orders.
1
Your title is apt. The Russians are dancing in Moscow to the chaos in Britain and the EU (and the US, for that matter). The electorate in Britain is no more educated than the electorate in the US. How could 2 countries electorate "dumb down" in such a short period?
2
So folks are “resolutely irresolute “, just like in 1936, huh? That’s a comfort. What followed, something like 50 million killed or starved?
2
Americans and Britons have such a special relationship that when one metaphorically shoots itself in the foot, the other eagerly follows. Thus does good sense disappear.
1
Brexit is a brother of Trump. Funded by the moneyed who will profit, and the political puppet masters who will profit.
Vote over, investgate where the money for these campaigns came from. Brits don't require transparency for foreign agents and the govt and greater London are loaded with Russianoligarch money. That needs to change. Wake up, cousins!
Although they have signed up for the Magnitsky act they, the Brits, have created no sanctions againstt the oodles of perpetrators in their midst. How many murders/poisonings on their soil will it take?
Americans like mnuchin were influenced to lift sanctions on Deripaska because in part of the lobbying by a house of lord goldsmith, who also has money in crook deripaska's aluminum.
Republican lemmings followed along.
The tainted money web is strangling democracies all over.
I too hope that we will have another referendum for there is no doubt that the Leave campaign was dishonest. To those who say that this will be incredibly divisive I say Brexit has already divided us and regardless of outcome it will take many, many years to heal the fissures which David Cameron's selfish ploy has foisted on us. If we leave, those who voted for it will be vilified for their vote for the years of economic turmoil and hardship that are set to ensue. It has already started and the pace is likely to pick up if we do leave on 29th March even with Mrs. May's deal for it is no panacea. In fact we face further years of tremendous uncertainty which is anathema to business and investment. If we stay of course there will be serious ramifications and perhaps some violence for we are dealing with the far right here. However I would rather endure such short lived pain than the years of economic stagnation and ultimate civil unrest that is quite possible, indeed likely, should we leave.
It is an unholy mess. We have no credible leaders in Parliament. There is no consensus anywhere and we are just over three weeks away from the date. The only rational course is to seek an at least 12 months delay, participate in EU elections and hold another referendum. Are our Parliamentarians courageous enough to make the right decisions? Or will they plunge us into chaos? It is going to be a nail biting few weeks for those of us here.
143
The British people may be clueless about what's in store for them, but it's for good reason. The country with a long record of governing - or trying to govern - other peoples around the world doesn't have a clue how to govern itself.
Roger pinpointed the problem, which is the standoff between Parliamentary democracy and government by referendum. Parliament is supposed to be sovereign and referenda are only advisory, yet from the day Cameron announced the referendum (for self-serving political reasons), it was sold to the people as the last word.
Since the narrow Brexit victory, the politicians have been immobilized by fear of the Brexiteers, just as the GOP is scared stiff by the crowds in MAGA hats.
There's still a chance that Parliament will rediscover its spine at the last minute.
115
What would a second referendum ask? This column seems incomplete without a description.
If the question is whether to leave the EU, then the author should explain clearly that it's not entirely Britain's choice. Every one of the 27 EU countries would have to agree; the requirement is unanimity. How likely is that? It appears the British politicians continue to be delusional.
The best analogy I've heard is this: imagine that your spouse is discontent and demands a divorce. Then demands far more money and property than the law or fairness allow, claiming that they are special. And continues to demand. And says negative things about you publicly. For two years. Then when you are completely exasperated at your spouse's demands, two weeks before the trial to set the divorce settlement, the spouse says that since they're not getting enough they now want to stay. You are sure your spouse still doesn't like you and will still talk trash about you, without end.
What would you say? Welcome back, dear?
30
@MarcPantani
Actually, the European Court of Justice has already ruled that the UK can unilaterally choose to withdraw Article 50. Agreement of the remaining EU 27 is only needed to extend Article 50.
13
@Louise
That's good to know. Too bad the newspapers don't explain that fact in the zillions of articles printed each week about Brexit. I had read months ago that an attorney for one of the EU commissions thought that was true, but I didn't know that the question had actually gone to a court resolution in December 2018.
A little research shows that the NYT did report on the EU court decision, once, buried in an article with an unrelated title on Dec. 10. It has been mentioned in the NYT only that once that I can find.
Since then, the NYT has had over 800 articles mentioning Brexit, according to the search feature.
1
Mr. Cohen, I appreciate your optimism about the US recovery after Trump, but I don't think it will happen easily or quickly given the extent of the damage he has wrought in two and so years. He has essentially decimated agencies, institutions, alliances, protocol, norms and ethical boundaries and worse he has through contagion created a base of hysterical, negative and illogical followers who will not go quietly.
That said, it's not coincidental that the same forces that helped create trumpism, including compliant politicians with little regard for consequence, birthed Brexit and there is every reason for alarm at the resulting mess.
It brings to mind the old poem, "if you can keep your head when all around you..." To deal with the problems swirling around both situations it will not be as radical as "off with their heads!", but rather keeping ours and encouraging others to put them back on in place of mindless oblivion.
1
This is about the sixth editorial I (started) reading this morning. I
am coming to the conclusion that human existence is full of problems....along with the existence of every other life form on the planet. It seems we can't get away from the fact that here on earth every life form stays alive by eating another life form. I, personally, don't see a way out of that.
Britain has voted to leave. The reason, I gather, is the working class is fundamentally opposed to free movement of labor. Whereas the middle class wants the free movement as they can now go and work in Germany or Spain. Also the hated tech sector can get the best and the brightest to come to London and work.
What the working class refuses to understand is that enterprises open due to the free availability of labor. Take away that incentive and the jobs vanish.
Brexit should happen to demonstrate to British and the world the simple truth. It would be good for America also.
54 to 46 percent would not really be a convincing victory for the Remainers in a second referendum, if it turned out that well. The Leavers would always feel that they have been had again. Who would run this second referendum - May? Corbyn? I can't imagine either of them would do it well and anyway neither of them wants to stay.
It is better for Britain to leave and suffer the consequences. Only after the Brexiteers have been thoroughly discredited and cease to be a political force can the adjustment to the real world begin. Perhaps then Britain will even decide that a future in Europe is preferable to a future outside and will give it another go.
3
@Ken
"54 to 46 percent would not really be a convincing victory for the Remainers in a second referendum"
Which suggests the original referendum margin for leave was not a convincing victory.
2
Brexit is a consequence of the failings of liberalism as described, correctly, by Mr. Cohen:
"It was less good at providing people with meaning to their lives, beyond hedonism and materialism."
I would add to that assessment another factor and that is the generally nostalgic portrayal on BBC programming of when Britain was still an Imperial presence, at least that is the way it appears on this side of the Atlantic.
Nevertheless, even if Brexit is somehow halted or postponed, how is that different than couples who on the verge of divorce become suddenly fearful and pause? It doesn't happen often in marriages so why should it happen with Brexit?
Keeping mind that many foreign companies had facilities in the UK for their access to the EU and the financial systems to facilitate it. Now those same financial systems are opening branches in the EU directly as are foreign companies for the simple reason that if the UK were to stop Brexit who is to say they wouldn't do it again?
The die has been cast, the only question is how amicable the UK wants the divorce to be.
2
Excellent analysis, as ever, from Roger Cohen. Just one thing missing: the Irish backstop. An open north-south Irish border is incompatible with Brexit; a controlled border as required by Brexit, is incompatible with the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. It’s that simple.
13
Suppose neither the UK nor Ireland were in the EU. Ireland applies to join.
What do you think would happen? The EU would say, sorry you can’t join. Or a suitable solution would be found?
Where there’s a will there’s a way but there’s no will to find a solution because it’s leverage to stop the UK leaving.
@Iain Clark and can you explain why the EU would refuse the INDEPENDANT Republic of Ireland, wich is not the BRITISH Northern Ireland, to join ? as you know, of course, there are "2" Irelands ..
@Iain Clark If neither the UK or Ireland were in the EU, there wouldn't be a frictionless border to begin with, so that's a nonsensical scenario.
2
The Tories have failed the people. Labor is failing the people. May is cynically running down the clock while monstrous knaves like Rees-Moot remember that the real money to be made is when there is blood running in the streets. Perhaps even more cynically, Jeremy Corbyn is carefully calibrating measures designed not to reinforce Brexit but to remove Labor’s fingerprints from it with his vague call for a referendum. Corbyn’s goal is to better his chance as an otherwise unelectable politician to win control of post-Brexit Britain’ inevitable chaos so he can implement his vision of Marxism in one country. God save the British.
5
A prediction of 56-44 is not a very likely place to have second referendum. When it loses, what then?
The subtle, indirect aspect of institutional racism steers this entire shift in global political decision making. It’s gonna be hard.
1
Intolerance leads to a state of paralysis of the mind, and acting in these moments or proposing changes at this time leads to wrong decisions. The result we see now is the proof of this lousy decision. Political irresponsibility created this situation, induced a nation to error and the worst way to solve its internal problems. Now that these same politicians have the humility to ask their people again. Let us go ahead or acknowledge this historical error.
2
The statement that "the union would have to agree to that and would want to know why" is incorrect. The European Court of Justice ruled in December 2018 that Article 50 could be UNILATERALLY revoked up until the 29th of March 2019. That would stop the whole process and leave the UK in the EC. The judgement said that the decision should be "unequivocal and unconditional" but that is not a binding requirement and is not legally defined
1
This is a very curious statement “Liberalism worked well for a while. It was good at freeing people from bigotry, sexism, racism, nationalism and prejudice. It was less good at providing people with meaning to their lives, beyond hedonism and materialism.” How does a political philosophy that supports freedom of individuals to pursue their religion, their relationships, their work and their lives without prejudice take the blame for people not finding meaning in their lives? Maybe people lost faith in their religion, their politicians and their employers because of their corruption, their incompetence and their failures. The failure of liberalism that I see is trusting and believing that the hatred, racism and tribalism were gone rather than slumbering to be awakened by economic problems brought about by deregulation of finance, war and austerity programs. With global catastrophe hurtling towards us due to planetary warming liberalism and progressive values will be the only hope to save the human species. The alternative is to extinction as a disunited species. Perhaps, that prospect will give back meaning to those unhappy with liberalism. The most basic meaning, survival and perpetuation of mankind.
8
How many times do you get to do a do-over and who decides that? Do you need a referendum to have another?
And what if the results of the new referendum are not acceptable? Do-over?
Referendum is direct government of the people. How much do they get to directly rule in a liberal parliamentary democracy?
5
Yup, another referendum would be Britain's 'Mid Terms'.
3
"I grew up in a Britain where “the Continent,” a faintly distasteful geographical mass associated with rabies and garlic, was far away. "
Rabies and garlic indeed. Great Britain, just the phrase reeks of arrogance, has been looking down its nose at the continent and its former colonies for 300 years. During that entire period, as now, the UK has taken far more, economically, from the rest of the world than it has contributed.
I, for one, hope fervently that the Brits get their wish and leave the EU. They deserve it. Oh yes, I hope also that the EU embargoes the importation of Garlic to Britain. They deserve that as well.
3
I grew up on Britain too. Roger Cohen may have felt like that towards Europe, pre joining the then EEC.
I didn’t.
3
@Angelo Agro
They will just grow their own garlic.
BTW, the Continent had no great regard for Britain, either. It has been a two-sided dislike based on thousands of years of invasion and political struggle.
The French call them les rosbifs, after all, and the last I heard, the Spanish refer to British tourists as the spaghetti and chips crowd.
Liberal Democracy as an idea has not failed. Neither did it fail in the 1930’s, despite the financial Depression. Liberal Democracy has proved over two centuries to be a workable compromise between economic efficiency and representative political institutions. What has failed is the Conservative revival, starting with Hayek, Von Mises, the Neo conservatives, Supply Side Economics, Trickle Down, States Rights, the Contract with America, and all the other marketing phrases of the last 40 years of Right lies.
These last 40 years have seen the enemies of liberal Democracy ascendant, and what a mess they have made. The Tories and the Republicans now are simply the party of greed. And what a riotous party it has been for them.
Time for intellectual hygiene. Root out the apologists for this craven servitude of wealth, reveal the excuses for what they are. Record every vote by every Republican. Do not let them forget, do not let the voters forgive. If we must, let us herd them into Idaho and seal the borders.
10
Sadly Brexit beckons
May sequences the voting
1. Crash out rejected .
2. ERC and DUP come onside and help Mays deal pass as they fear referendum
3. She requests a few months extension of Article to complete legislation for 2.
Only if her deal fails - unlikely in the scenario above - do we move towards a referendum and then the question is how many questions?
1
I will never understand the rational beyond racisim and nationalism for Brexit. You don’t pay your club dues you don’t get to eat at the club restaurant. Furthermore, every EU country had a vested interest in being as harsh as they could on the UK to prove a point to any other would be leavers. The UK vastly overestimated the rest of the EU’s taste for meat pies, fish and chips and their stale watery beer.
4
A new election will only deepen the polarization.
Bad idea
5
What the Brits have to fix above all is their predatory, unhinged financial sector. It has played a dominant role across all of Europe and even the world in impoverishing working people and the middle class. The City’s criminals need to be put in check otherwise indeed, as a European I would want Britain to please exit asap.
2
Trenchant, well reasoned and sane.
“It's going to have to fix its national problems — and the European Union could help.”
Mr. Cohen leaves us hanging on this last sentence of his column. What is the EU supposed to do to help one of its Member States save itself from a self inflicted wound?
It would seem that the only thing the EU can do is to grant more time, an extension of the already chaotic mess that threatens, according to Mr. Cohen, civil unrest in places like the bellweather community of Swindon.
I think that the baby boomers are not going to come out of this period of turmoil well. As Gibney points out, we're a generation of sociopaths and the young people (in the US, the UK, and the rest of the EU), who will be taking the reigns of power soon are not going to be happy with what we've left them.
Baby boomers gave the UK "Fantacy Brexit" and the US Donald Trump. The baby boomers gave us both national debt, rampant gullibility for conspiracy theories, environmental destruction, and climate change.
The young can't take over soon enough for my taste.
5
@JFR
As one of those Boomers, I could not agree more.
1
For those familiar with the Brits' appalling exit from India there is a certain poetic justice here. Brexit has been "managed" with the same clumsy, poorly thought out arrogance and haste that left colonial India in chaos with millions dead and displaced.
Only this time they have done it to themselves, fed by the illusion of a return to a greatness that was nourished only by the thuggish exploitation of South Asians and Africans. Oh, and the same disdain of the "other" that propelled their empire forward.
Not only are they not ruling the waves anymore but they can't even manage ruling themselves.
There are many elderly Punjabis now who must be savoring this moment.
1
Mr Cohen, I agree strongly with your presentation, and hope that sane minds find a way to a second referendum. However, please don't tar the noble lemming. They have never voluntarily jumped off a cliff. This notion comes from a Disney documentary, in which they were pushed off a cliff by the filmmakers, much as was done by the original Brexiters in the referendum
Dear Brits, please remain!
This is a serious plea from across the channel.
And here is a (tongue in cheeck) slogan which might rock the now doubtful Brexiteers:
"BREXIT - vastly more devastating than Wernher Freiherr von Braun could ever have dreamed of".
Roger- The British people are fed up with their tenuous current lot in life following the uneven economic recovery from the 2008 US Great Recession.
Author misses the boat on this one, just as he missed the boat back in 1970's when as Paris correspondent, and seemed not to see that middle class and working class Paris was being destroyed, victims of a takeover of all major cities in France by the wealthy, the "winners," Macron's constituency, and forced into dreary h.l.m's "en banlieue!"While this profound transformation was taking place, author was rhapsodizing in articles about the beauty of Guillaume Apollinaire's poetic verse, as if anyone, especially the abovementioned victims of the take over of Paris by the rich would even care. BREXIT was a vote against EU's ability to impose "immigration a outrance "on the British people w/o so much as a by your leave, a referendum of those most affected: working class and middle class whites. Enoch Powell,1 of the few truly honest politicians, had it right in his "Rivers of Blood " speech in which he said that allowing 50,000 immigrants in yearly was a recipe for disaster.Title drawn from the Aeneid which I studied in college. Powell's voice was silenced by Heath, head of Conservative Party who proclaimed "Multiracial Britain works," when it did not especially for little whites who found themselves at the bottom of the hill.Heath was to BRITAIN what Angela Merkel, who let in a million Syrians w/o a referendum into Germany!Author is defending the indefensible!Suggest he read investigative series in NYT on the poor in GB which would open his eyes.
Britain is in the midst of a tough transition brought on by the government, perhaps foolishly, giving the people the option to directly decide if the significant benefits of being part of a trans-national federation outweigh the significant liabilities. This makes me wonder how such plebiscites would go in other EU countries. The economic liabilities for the Southern European countries of sharing an overvalued currency with Germany have left them stuck with anemic growth for a decade. Grexit? Spexit? Italexit? From the beginning the EU has been popular among the cosmopolitan class but with precarious popular support. As the member countries are democracies, pubic support is vital, so if the liabilities have turned out to be significantly bigger than was hoped for, this is just the beginning of a very difficult process.
Almost within minutes of the Brexit ballots being counted in 2016, "those responsible walked away." Witness the "Barons of Blowhard" Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, who cut and ran the moment it dawned on them that, oops, they might be expected to clean up the pigeon guano they had left behind with their mendacious campaign.
Considering that nothing of substance was known about the real consequences of the 2016 Brexit vote at the time, partly because the campaign was based on reckless falsehood, clearly a second vote is now warranted. Many of the real consequences remain yet unknown but at least some of the questions to reconsider are clearer.
Several generations of Britain's future in the balance.
12
while leaving the EU was likely a mistake, at this point it would seem the "remains" might be best off working to make "leave" work as effectively as possible. But they will have to realize that much of Britain understandably doesn't want to be swamped by immigrants ans plenty of working people had been left behind as elite professionals and the financiers thrived.
2
@Barry Schiller
With Bexit those "working people" who were left behind will be further behind. The reality in all developed countries is that those without skills face a declining job market due to technology and workiong people in developing countries. Low cost/skill developing country labor does not need to move to developed countries to be a threat to those within minimal skills in those countries. It can make the same goods for export in their own countries.
The stats of the 2016 referendum: 47 million registered voters; 17 million voted to leave. The Tories repeat ad nauseum that is was the "will of the people". Really? Can "first past the post" , aka winner take all, realistically be considered democratic?
8
It is puzzling that calls for another referendum on the issue is demonized as an attack and abandonment of the democratic process.
Isn’t a fundamental tenet of democratic governance is the flexibility to reconsider new information which shows the real world consequences of a damaging publiy policy?
16
The bottom line is that there was a referendum and more people voted to leave the E.U. I can't understand why the will of the people isn't respected. Not doing so is a slippery slope.
2
Because your country is waking up to the mistake it made. If you make the wrong turn, Love, you don’t keep driving thinking you will end up where you want to be. Simple, really.
2
@Roberta 17 million out of 47 million registered voters voted to leave, just over 36% = will of the people? UK citizens living in the EU, whether through work or retirement, were excluded from the vote (1.3 million)
The courts have subsequently found that Vote Leave broke campaign rules, lied and overspent, but this was overruled as the referendum was "advisory", and many voters voted against David Cameron because they disliked him....shall I go on? I'm lucky, the UK gave me my high school & university education (free) and in return I've worked here for close on 56 years, only recently retiring aged 75. As an EU citizen I'm now getting ready to leave the nasty racist country that the UK has become, moving back into the EU.
4
Brexit is supported by a group of power brokers in the U.K. that don’t want EU interference with their control. If a second referendum is decided upon, they will again unleash a barrage of propaganda and alternative facts to persuade the great unwashed. The remain campaign is a feeble effort compared to this brainwashing machinery. Brexit will take place, by one foul means or another.
5
In their debates regarding the adoption of a democratic system of government, the issue of the plebecite was discussed by Plato and Thucydides, who warned that "the state (could become) dysfunctional because the citizens who ruled it through direct democracy were often too ignorant and irrational to make good decisions."
14
As an American (we clearly have our own problems) I don't have a vote. Still it seems to me that if Parliament cannot decide whether to leave the EU with May's negotiated deal, leave with no deal at all, or to stay, those three options should be put to a plebiscite. Ranked voting, otherwise known as the instant runoff, should be used. It this way, the largest group of British citizens will not be stuck with their most hated result. I would suspect that Mays plan will win in that case, but who knows?
2
I agree with Mr. Cohen. What I continue to not understand is why the British do not do a much deeper investigation into the Russian influence in the Brexit vote. Brexit is a huge win for Putin. Early reports were that Russian used similiar techniques in Britain as they used in the US like spreading lies thru social media. A second Brexit vote would be made easier if the Brits showed that the Russians had spread lies about the Brexit benefit thru social media.
12
@Richard This is so very true. Remember that Nigel Farage was one of the most prominent right wing UKIP politicians to spearhead the Brexit. And this very Nigel Farage is personal friends with Donald J. Trump with close ties to Trump's Republicans. During and after the 2016 election he was very visible at Republican events. And he just spoke again at the 2019 CPAC gathering. Coincidence?
8
The "leave" vote seemed based on the premise that, for a prosperous and secure Britain, we must leave the E.U. Unfortunately the past three years have shown that the second part of the premise is achievable, but both together are not. I hope our friends across the pond can find a peaceful resolution to this dilemma.
2
The Brexiters make it sound as if "Brussels" would be a disconnected entity, hovering above them and giving them orders. Just like the "Tet" in the movie "Oblivion". Nothing could be further from the truth: Britain was - or at least for another four weeks still is - a part of the European Union. All decisions in the EU are made unanimously; meaning Britain always had a veto on any regulation it did not like.
6
Britain voted against Jean Claud Juncker becoming president. Hungary did too.
Juncker is president.
"Liberalism worked well for a while. It was good at freeing people from bigotry, sexism, racism, nationalism and prejudice. It was less good at providing people with meaning to their lives, beyond hedonism and materialism."
Mircea Eliade, so-called the father of comparative religion, identified this problem with what he called "modernism" way back in the 1930s. Essentially, Mr. Cohen is suggesting the reaction against the EU, and what is being called Liberalism here, is against modernism. But since modernism was the result of historical realities and transformations, there's no rational alternative. That doesn't prevent people from demanding one, of course, or unscrupulous politicians from exploiting irrational demands.
8
The Brexit mess is the same sort of political whiplash that helped elect Trump in the US. Many people do not want the one-world, open border, everything free society so beloved of the liberal elite and will do what they can to resist it. Common finance, trade and maybe even law, ok, but values and culture, no thanks.
1
@Larry
Yes, foreign cultural abominations such as the Christmas tree, salsa, dog sled racing, algebra, non-violent resistance, chopsticks, Bach, health care, reggae,
etc.
2
There is one reason missing for Brexit: in 2008, when the crisis hit, bankers were rescued with public money, but the average people, they were stuck with austerity. This austerity was decided not only in Brussels and Berlin, where Trichet and Schaüble were imposing it on all Euro members. It was also volontarily self-imposed in the UK (not a Euro member) by first Gordon Brown and then Cameron. This turn to austerity caused a lot of economic desperation and hardship among many voters. These voters then turned towards the populists: Farage, Boris Johnson... and voted leave whithout much thinking, just to show the middle finger to those in power. So, in a certain sense, the Tories and Brussels'elites are reaping what they sowed in 2008.
11
Talking about "crashing out" and "lemmings over the cliff" sets this piece firmly in thrall to the EU supporters propaganda. In point of fact the sentiment around the country in the UK is very much in favour of letting 29th March come and go and then build from there. That is of course not the preference of those who presume to govern, or those whose commentary and support for the alliance of big money with soi-disant liberal dictatorship brought the UK to this pass, albeit in a lower key than the same tune in the States which now bids so fair to destroy democracy and the world as we have come to expect it.
2
While you're quoting Churchill, don't leave out his (alleged) remark that the best argument against democracy is a 5 minute discussion with the average voter. (Sure works in the US.)
15
I thought it was interesting that the number one term Googled in Britain the day AFTER the vote to leave was "what is Brexit?"
17
"It was less good at providing people with meaning to their lives,..." Since when is government charged with providing meaning to the lives of their citizens?
If people miss meaning in their lives then the responsibility for that purpose/meaning should come from within the person not from the government.
The government can support the arts which does help to provide meaning to our lives.
13
@D Selig
Is that way Rkon politicians attack arts funding?
A canny political historian might well have been able to predict, perhaps not the excruciating details of Brexit, but at least the broad outlines many years ago.
This is because Britain, as a country, and the British, as a people, have long suffered from the malady of crushed expectations and lost aspirations.
One of the symptoms of this illness is the large number of people, from all walks of life, who firmly believe that Britain has been hard done by and who rue the greatness that the country has lost. All the while they live in a nostalgic dream of a return to a past which has long since turned to dust.
This illness causes them to elect governments that are obviously incompetent but who have managed to be elected by cleverly playing on the fears and hopes and discontent (aided by a compliant press) of a people who have lost- their way and their identity.
11
Right, I get the idea. On my first summer in London, 1969, I was amazed to see bomb damage left from WWII. During the 70’s British manufactures were terrible; Lucas Electric, The Prince of Darkness. But you managed to pull yourselves together into a decently run country that punched above its weight diplomatically, had a good military, started addressing domestic conditions and kept a NHS running that, if we are honest, was an example for all National Health Plans. You regained a large measure of prosperity, the lads drank in Spain, the women drank in the streets. Seemed to be working.
Polling on British membership of the EU is notoriously unreliable. Everyone thought, based on polling, that the 2016 referendum would result in Remain. Given the political paralysis on the matter, another vote is clearly the answer to this mess, but we should not assume that Remain will win, despite the demographic shift since the plebiscite. Also, what question(s) would be on the ballot, if and when it comes? There are really three options: In or out? If Out, with an agreement or without?
6
Why should liberalism be responsible for "providing people with a meaning to their lives"? Is that the purpose of government, or economics, or politics? I think not. At its best, liberalism is a mechanism and conduit through which people can more successfully and easily find meaning in their lives themselves. Liberalism should remove that which hampers us from realizing our dreams.
15
@David Yuro - Liberalism is "a philosophy that considers government as a crucial instrument for amelioration of social inequities" (Merriam-Webster). I think the author of this article has confused Liberalism with unfettered Capitalism.
10
When, on the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1861, the southern states seceded from the Union, they did so with much the same bravado as did the Brexiteers before and since winning their referendum. Then, had the Confederacy won the support of Britain and France, it might well have prevailed in the Civil War, in the process extending slavery to Cuba, Mexico, and the American Southwest. In the long run, however, the Confederate dream was doomed (imagine the fate of a slave-owning empire one hundred years after date of Emancipation), not least by its determination to turn in on itself, and to disdain the larger world and the currents of history. So it will be with Brexit, should that secession actually occur, and Britain defiantly try to go it alone.
24
@Mark Foster -- Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the American Southwest all had slavery until the Civil War, not ending in Cuba until 1886. Brazil had it until 1888. The end of slavery in other places did not come with the Union Army and Reconstruction, and was often not much ended in reality.
How long could it have survived if reinforced by Confederate victory and expansion? Longer than it did.
Just so with the EU and Brexit, there is a tendency to take what is and was as inevitable and the only way it could be.
In fact, turning points really do turn away from other ways things could be. That is why a turning point is important, not merely inevitability.
Brexit is a genuine turning point. That is exactly why it generates so much emotion.
3
@Mark Foster I am not sure I understand. Do you mean it will become some reprehensible rogue state, like Switzerland or Norway?
“They included a free trade agreement Japan has concluded with the European Union (making manufacture in Japan more attractive). Honda did not cite the elephant on its production line: Brexit.”
This, to me, does not follow. If manufacturing in Japan is made more attractive (meaning cheaper, I assume) because an E.U. trade deal has concluded, what has that to do with Brexit? Perhaps it will now not be renegotiated, but if it is cheaper for the Japanese to make the cars at home, they were going to do that, anyway.
It seems that stories that would, pre-Brexit, have been relegated to the business pages and lauded as unremarkable business decisions are wheeled to the front page to shore up the belief that businesses are leaving in droves because of Brexit.
Roger Cohen is a clever man, certainly, so perhaps I am missing a crucial link in the logic.
7
@D. Wagner The paragraph above that says why - the Honda plant in Swindon closed and several thousand jobs were lost. His point is that companies, in the face of uncertainty, will move their factories elsewhere resulting in even more job loss. This has already started with other companies in Britain as well - and recently, banks have moved over 1 trillion pounds out of Britains banks because of this.
7
@DJ!
However, a lot of these moves are business decisions that would have been made anyway. It is not as if companies have never moved out of the UK before Brexit. It is standard operating procedure to move facilities in global manufacturing. That’s one of the things that spawned Brexit (and Trump) in the first place—the loss of manufacturing.
And if the UK fares as poorly as everyone seemingly wants it to (perhaps for daring to be first off the diving board), the companies will come back to take advantage of even lower pay, and then move on. It’s part and parcel of the race to the bottom.
The banks will be back. Moving money is easy. Even I’ve done it.
1
The common British sense of deriving disproportionate share of political and economic advantage from its EU association might have been lost in the post-Brexit din and confusion, but given a second chance, the majority of the British would correct the folly of the first hastily arrived and emotionally charged referendum of 2016. What is actually needed is clarity of vision and determination on the part of the ruling political establishment before the critical moment arrives
10
The countdown to a parliamentary high noon for the May version of Brexit has been fascinating to watch, but it has never deviated even slightly from the final outcome of exiting the EU.
Sir Graham Brady's willingness to turn his Tory faction over to May if the EU will agree to say or do something to mitigate the Irish backstop is really interesting. If the EU rejects his option, it will destabilize itself by killing the May Plan and thereby encouraging future Brexiteers to simply go straight to a no-deal Article 50. On the other hand, the EU will lose some of its potential power to rein in the German-centered financial centralization that has strongly fuelled euroskeptics worldwide.
Also, it should not be forgotten than 37% of Brits firmly want a No Deal Exit, and they are a serious political force equivalent to Trump's anarchists in the USA. And adopting the May Plan, which is actually a staggered schedule for negotiating a divorce that looks more like an open-marriage, is going to have continuing political repercussions in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
No one seems to disagree on the idea that the EU needs some serious reforms, and that a united Europe is in everyone's best interest. But that stratospheric view of this impasse is basically meaningless.
2
@V N Rajan
Perhaps you have not noticed that Theresa May heads a cabinet of ministers that are widely seen as incompetent even within their own party.
An example, Chris Grayling the Transport Minister, has been responsible for more damage to the Exchequer than possiblly any other minister ever!
3
@Sequel
- There will be a "High noon at the Westmisnster corral" as you have said because it´s the only option left. No way to get around if the parliamnt doesn´t comply to a second referendum. It won´t because it can´t do in this situation.
- Both options, "Ms May´s deal" or "cliff edge" are based on "Brexit on March 29th". You are right. Ms. deal is nothing but an interimagreement because allissues that have to be solved by "withdrawal agrement" can never be solved within 2 years and can never be agreed when parliament is paralyzedas it is right now. It´s not only political division, it´s because they don´t understand the simple rules of Art 50 and they don´t understand that they need consent of EU in every issue to decide that is affecting EU. Impossible to handle for anybody.
- EU can not be interested to keep a member who´s central decision-making institutions are uncapable to take any decision like British Institutions are since november. This is due to the governing principle of unanimity in the EU. To keep UK in EU at any prize would mean to paralyze whole EU unforeseeably by a "veto-member" that will be paralyzed for years.
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/brexit-bloss-kein-zweites-referendum-a-1255181.html
only German
- Backstop is part of the interim agreement bridging time between Brexit and withdrawal agreement by keeping status quo without free movement of persons. Limiting backstop would mean "quasi membership without free movement" then. No way.
In the heady days of world power and empire, the UK got by by muddling through, distaining planning ahead and expertise. The public-school educated, talented amateur would solve any problem by making it up as he went along. This method worked when the UK was the leading nation and there was a lot of slack between it and continental rivals, who were also disdained. Africa begins at Calais was a popular saying. Brexit was launched in the same spirit with elite relic, old-Etonian David Cameron, calling a referendum to end a split in the Tory Party with no Plan B if things went wrong, and Theresa May announcing the exit date with no idea what the government wanted. The result was the mess that exists today as there is no majority for any outcome which leaves the EU and the British people, Leavers and Remainers, frustrated, as indicated in Roger Cohen's column. There is also the related generational split: the older generation looking back nostalgically at the old Britain while the younger generation despairs about its future in a little England. If the situation wasn't so perilous it would be subject to a Monty Python sketch.
25
@John McDermott
and the sketch would surely have been cutting the earth from under the island, adding floats and turbines and wondering around the world looking to be great again
8
@John McDermott
Exactly. I could not have put it better if I tried. And I did - see published comment!
2
@archilab
And with Jacob Rees-Mogg as prime minister looking through the wrong end of a telescope.
1
David Cameron thought it was no brainer, the UK would stay in the EU. The Conservative parties austerity was very popular with the same people who voted to leave the EU. Corbyn had his own reasons to get out of the EU, despite that fact, his recent good showing in the last election seems to have been helped by the 2nd referendum supporters. Now the UK is in a difunctional spiral and May is being held in office by the Conservatives efforts to hold on to power. So the UK lurches for the worst outcome. Labor is being sabotaged by efforts to get Corbyn out of power with a phony anti-Semitism campaign. Holy maceral what a mess.
9
The fundamental mistake was to allow a plebiscite in the first place. The UK has a flexible, functioning parliamentary democracy well positioned to act reasonably on matters of state import by the mechanism of a vote of no confidence. Why on earth would they import an easily manipulated alien procedure to override the structure of centuries?
35
"The answer is to fix problems — in education, the health service, taxation and uncontrolled immigration, to name a few."
Roger, I agree with your assessment, but please can we resist using the word "fix" as though these tough and complex matters can be rectified with a wrench and a screwdriver? This was what the Brexit advocates suggested in their campaign a simple fix for a complex set of issues.
12
Honour compels Mrs. May to admit that she has been unable to negotiate a Brexit that has the support of Parliament and which meets the expectations and interests of the UK. It also compels her to rescind Brexit, resign, and call new elections to be fought on the question of Brexit as well as the other interests of the people, and for the new Government to have the responsibility of deciding on restarting the clock, holding a referendum, or doing nothing at all. Her time is simply up.
19
The polls say there is now a slight lead for staying in but they also said that before the referendum. Another vote would put people’s already high level of cynicism with politicians through the roof.
The EU has already managed to reverse every other “wrong” result in referenda in various countries. It is an undemocratic organisation which is one good reason to leave.
An act of self harm? That’s a matter of opinion.
6
It comes to the same thing in both Britain and America, the left is not willing to give up power even when it loses elections. In the U.S. the tactic has been a never-ending campaign to delegitimize the winner, in the U.K. a relentless demand for a revote. In both countries the left has shown that it believes in democracy only when it wins. That should be reason enough not to risk letting them back into power.
2
@Ronald B. Duke
It’s not the left that wants a another vote in the UK it’s the centre. Historically it’s been the left of Labour and the right of the Conservatives that have been opposed to membership of the EU though for tactical reasons Corbyn is keeping his euro scepticism hidden.
20
@Ronald B. Duke
The kind of "democracy" we have in the U.S. these days is the kind increasingly mandated by the ultra conservative right wing of the defunct GOP. Billionaires and corporations rule the country through the machinations enabled by Citizen's United...a right wing Supreme Court coup d'etat. It has nothing to do with the left what-so-ever.
6
@Ronald B. Duke
You seemed to have forgotten that we don't have a democracy in the US when it comes to electing the President. Trump lost by three million votes.
6
Mr. Cohen, Mainland Europe will survive and thrive no matter how Britain leaves. Ireland will be badly damaged. In common with many of those raised in the U.K. you obviously didn't give a thought to this matter.
Our politicians, and indeed population, are being excoriated in the English right wing and gutter press because we are are having to fight on a daily basis to keep the border open between the South and the North of Ireland. The lives of so many were lost and devastated during the course of the euphemistically termed Troubles and the divisiveness it left is not far beneath the surface. I hold no brief for murderers toting guns and planting cowardly bombs, but unlike the egregious Gerry Adams I don't believe they've gone away.
The Good Friday Agreement is now a phrase being tossed around in the so-called Mother of Parliament as a pejorative term blaming the Irish for this stumbling block on their own mistaken and ill-informed exit from the EU. They seem to have forgotten, both Labour and Conservative, that the European Union, for all its many faults, was born out of a desire for peace.
When Britain leaves the EU Ireland will lose jobs, possibly investment, and many material comforts. Our biggest loss could be peace and it is an ongoing insult not to have that recognised by Britain and in articles such as yours Mr. Cohen.
33
@Geraldine Bird
It is true that the potential for disaster is significantly greater for Ireland than for England because of the border issue. I don’t think Cohen is in any way ignorant, or dismissive, of this reality. It’s simply that he is attempting to unravel the complex rationale for the Brexit vote among the people who actually brought it about.
I’ve no doubt that Cohen fully appreciates the Ireland quandary. The voters in Swindon may not, however.
19
@Geraldine Bird I understand the outrage about the British dismissal of Ireland's concerns in their quest for Brexit, to the extent that one Brexiteer even suggested that Ireland should quit the EU along with the UK. But Ireland is in a much better place today compared to the UK, with the support of 27 EU nations while the UK founders, alone. This of course suits Brexit myths but that is another issue. As long as the backstop stays intact, I don't see ruin for the Irish economy, and the backstop might save the UK from itself by forcing a customs union with the EU.
6
@Geraldine Bird
Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the E.U., so secession is not at all out of the question, particularly as Northern Ireland is expected to suffer disproportionately under a hard Brexit.
Also, I have read that the Catholics in Northern Ireland are now the majority, and they vote down religious lines. If that is so, they would vote to remain with the E.U.
If Brexit leads to a reunited Ireland, it would be well worth it.
6
The US is a member of NAFTA, a trading partnership with Mexico and Canada.
How would the average American feel if NAFTA transformed into the North America Union, with an NAU parliament in Ottawa able to overrule the US government, and an NAU court in Mexico City setting limits on the SCOTUS?
In 1975, the UK had a referendum on staying in what was then called the Common Market. The result was 2:1 in favor. Since then the Common Market has become the European Union, with an explicit ambition towards ever-closer ties.
I bitterly regret that the Brits have voted to leave the EU -- but Mr Cohen should at least attempt to understand the motives of a nation with the world's fifth largest economy and a history of independent sovereignty that dwarfs America's.
7
@Jethro -- "an NAU parliament in Ottawa able to overrule the US government, and an NAU court in Mexico City setting limits on the SCOTUS" might do a better job all around.
3
Financial services is a sizable part of GB economy at around 6 to 7% of it, with London responding for 50%. And as everyone should know, with it comes many, many benefits.
UK had a privileged position under E.U., it also was able to bolster its place on our world by having historical ties to English-speaking countries, old colonies and because of the role of English language on global economy. It was a convenient cross-road for things coming from and going to E.U.
Brexit imperils many of the advantages they had and I bet big cities like Frankfurt, Amsterdam and Paris would be more than happy to try to take the baton from London hands if they can.
24
Great article. For 45 years, the two major political parties have consistently and relentlessly used ignorance of the EU and things European as scapegoating for domestic-generated problems.
The average Brit, that includes politicians, as well as the general public, doesnt know, and doesnt want to know, how the EU works and what its achievements have been. They have been ably assisted by a media that at best has been mute,at worst xenophobic.
One criticism is that the EU is all red tape, in which the UK has no say. Another lie. Regulations by the Commission have to be approved by participant Governments. The irony is that the UK spread red tape all over the world.... look what it did to India!
I spent my adult life in oil business. I know how the EU was instrumental in cleaning up oil products (elimination of lead, big reductions in sulphur content, particulates, and cancer-generating components) when individual members could be reluctant in the face of industry lobbying.
De Gaulle was right.
47
If Brexit is finally approved, it is with great curiosity that I await which "burdensome" regulations imposed by the EU, Great Britain will reject and which they will retain. I am sure that they will keep most of them, perhaps with slight modifications. They may alter regulations slightly, but they will not stop immigration. They, like many developed countries need or will soon need immigrants. To use an old English saying, It's a fine kettle of fish in which they find themselves.
16
You could be right. But it’ll be Westminster not Brussels that decides.
1
There will eventually have to be a second referendum, the Brexit campaign was based on lies which have now been exposed through time. The actual deal we could get has been exposed by actually negotiating it. Brexiters continue to lie about their imaginary super deal, but far fewer are duped at this point.
I expect there will be an extension, followed by a referendum which will reverse the result. But the damage done to international investment and the financial services sector cannot be reversed. Whatever happens at this point, we've shot ourselves in the foot.
34
The pro-Brexit and MAGA crowd do have some legitimate grievances and could use some attention and help.
BUT they show no compassion to others who may also be in similar circumstances but who look different or live elsewhere. They denounce “those people” for being “takers” while they themselves take full advantage of government handouts. They wallow in their supposed “victimhood”.
Until they are ready to help themselves, don’t expect me to shed too many tears for them.
12
Honestly, the same phenomena that brought Trump, Brexit, and the rise of the far right in Europe are at work here. The simple fact is that what’s good for the rise of China, Southeast Asia, India, etc. plus the rise of automation has destroyed the western middle class. Thus, the social contract that allowed for democracy and social stability to be destroyed. Plus, it is worth remembering their is still enough wealth here in the west that if the west was to basically devolve into one giant civil war between the plutocrats vs the far right vs the far left, it’ll take down china, southeast asia, india, etc. I think, especially when it comes to automation, just because we can, does it necessarily mean we should? Also, we should ask ourselves is capitalism and the social aspect of our species compatible with one another? Also we should ask if representative democracy and capitalism compatible with one another?
9
Europhobes, you have spend decades blaming the EU for all your problems.
You have had what you wanted, and you have now entered a world were every problem will be blamed on your wonderful Brexit.
We feel your pain!
24
"Polls suggest Britain would now vote to stay in the European Union, perhaps by a 54-46 percent margin."
That is simply not enough to stop the debate, so a new referendum does not solve anything. When in doubt, don't.
1
Conservatives say that a second vote allowing for the possibility of overturning the vote to leave would be a betrayal of democracy. But when Wales voted in a referendum to establish a Welsh assembly, Theresa May nevertheless voted against establishing such an assembly. And a few years later the Conservatives advocated having a second referendum, with one option being the rejection of the outcome the first referendum. Brexiteers don't give a hoot about democracy, they care about getting their way. David Davis, former Brexit secretary, once said that a democracy that cannot change its mind ceases to be a democracy. But of course, in THIS case, all of a sudden, the opposite is true.
22
@Robert Heinaman
Yes indeed Robert. The ies come on and on. Seems this is the way government is run now. Or at least more openly!
We "Europeans" are much more united than we think. On closer inspection, we "Europeans" have almost everything to be a nation. We have a territory, we have a common history, a common culture, a common religion. We also have political institutions proper to a sovereign state: a Parliament, a Commission that equals a Government, a Justice, a Currency. We don't have an army yet, but it's a matter of time. What do we really lack? Language! Yes, of course, there is English which has imposed itself as a lingua franca, but how many of us "Europeans" speak it to the point of being able to express and understand complex reasoning and to express our most intimate emotions with property? Very few, unfortunately. And this is a great limitation in the process of "reunification" of Europe, which is an historical process, which we can adjust, but not stop, otherwise our civilization will gradually disappear. Let us think about this very carefully. Best regards from Padua (EU).
11
@Flavius The common use of the English language in the European Union is, I think, unavoidable and not put in question by the largest majority you can imagine. Nevertheless the British don't care, they are leaving us anyhow.
8
@robert
Dear Robert,
If the British (as well as the Americans, who are reading us) learned another language besides their own as we citizens outside the Anglo-Sphere are forced to do today, willingly or unwillingly, they could read news from the rest of the world at the source from Corriere della Sera, El Pais, Le Monde, L'Echo and so on. They would discover that their problems are the same as those of others, just as their anxieties and fears are also the same. And so are their hopes. And perhaps they would begin to ask themselves (real) questions and give themselves (serious) answers. As John Fitzgerald Kennedy said (hello, does anyone still remember him there in America?) "...Because ultimately, the fundamental bond that unites us all is that we all live on this little planet. We all breathe the same air. We all care about the future of our children." Best regards from Padua (EU).
P.S. I see you writing from Bruges. Charming town.
@robert
Dear Robert,
If the Britons (like the Americans, who are reading us) learned another language like the peoples outside the Anglosphere world today are forced to do willingly or unwillingly, they would know that their problems are the same as those of others, that their disappointments and fears are also the same, because they could read it in the Corriere Della Sera, Le Monde, El Pais, L'Hecho ... And begin to ask themselves (real) questions and try to give themselves (serious) answers. I see you write from Bruges. Charming city. Long live Europe. Best regards from Padua (EU)
In the UK the idea of holding referendums has been unpopular for a long time. In 1945 for instance the deputy prime minister Clement Attlee told about the idea of holding a referendum;
"I could not consent to the introduction into our national life of a device (i.e. referendum) so alien to all our traditions as the referendum which has only too often been the instrument of Nazism and Fascism."
Referendums in the United Kingdom are organised on the basis of the so-called Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000.
It stipulates very clearly that due to the principle of parliamentary sovereignty referendums cannot be constitutionally binding on either the UK-government or Parliament.
Acting as if the result of the referendum of 2016 has to be withheld AT ALL COSTS, as the Tory party does, even if there is no majority in Parliament for it, goes against the spirit of the law introduced in 2000 and therefore, is UNCONSTITUTIONAL and should be punished accordingly.
23
"Never was so little known by so many about so much."
Brilliant - I won't forget that line anytime soon.
But, "Trump is not forever?" While the destructive effects of his presidency have, in fact, cost us all permanently, let's not get into which debacle is worse, not yet. After all, the chances of another Brexit referendum do seem a bit higher than our chances at a "do-over" of our national election. At least from here.
14
Brexit can not possibly deliver what has been promised for it. What could? However, like most painful realities, too many will choose denial and scapegoating as a response.
11
Re: Swindon
Honda's decision to close the plant in Swinton is due to the overcapacity in the automotive industry, and only, if at all , peripherally linked. to Brexit
As The Economist notes, in his latest edition: Quote
"These (car) companies are responding to big changes in the global car market. Honda's decision to close Swindon, where it makes about 150 Civics a year. is another piece of a global rejig. The company will also close its Civic plant in Turkey"
There is no Turkexit
https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/02/23/hondas-departure-adds-to-the-gloom-enveloping-britains-car-industry
9
@Woof Well, England isn't exactly known for well-built vehicles, either. Maybe Honda had enough dealing with unskilled Brits.
2
Cohen writes from Britain, where this has indeed sucked all the oxygen out of politics for three years. It is indeed now on the cusp, less than four weeks away.
However, in the US people care little, and understand less.
This is entirely British navel gazing.
There is excellent reason why few care about their navel gazing fixation. They are now just a small island off the coast of a disorganized would-be power that isn't. Their economy is small, slow, and has little prospect either way.
Their one claim to fame now is that they "muddle through." No doubt they will again.
11
@Mark Thomason
The purpose of this article is to console Americans that there are electoral catastrophes even worse than Trump.
3
@Mark Thomason Britain is the place from which our culture and political system sprang. The Brexit vote was a harbinger of the (then) upcoming Trump vote. The indifference of the US public to events and trends outside of the US is one of the chief causes of the utterly stupid voting decisions made by that same public for at least the last 40 years if not longer.
In business, you can always sue to get out of a contract if you can prove that you were given fraudulent information. Why should it not be possible for the people of Britain to get out of Brexit (initially some sort of contract with itself) after it turns out that many of the data and most of the promises were fraudulent. The con-men insist that the contract be adhered to, even though they should simply be kicked out of office for defrauding the voters.
44
@keko
Isn't that what the Mueller investigation is really about?
So many predictions of the apocalypse. All that will happen is some delay, then some lukewarm treaty where Brexit is in name only and it's still all elitist "progressive" EU dominance. One can only hope the people will win their real Brexit at the end of March.
1
This is an interesting and useful article, although I don't agree with all of it. However, I think that Cohen is, like so many otherwise intelligent and learned people in the UK, looking at long-term solutions as a distraction for some urgent short term crises. In plainer terms, Cohen is talking about rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Cohen spends much time talking about "options" that are either improbable or inaccurate right now, 26 days from an explicit deadline spelled out clearly in a treaty between 28 sovereign and sometimes quite different nations. To his credit, when he asserts that a delay is an obvious option he immediately mentions that the delay might have to be short and must be for very clearly-stated goals. Most other commentators either fail to mention that or bury the disclaimer in the final paragraph of the article. However, he fails to mention that the upcoming EU Parliament elections make it highly unlikely that the delay could be more than two or perhaps three months. He also fails to mention that a second referendum would take far more time than that to set up, hold, and tally. In fact, there is no reason right now to expect even that the wording of such a second referendum could be determined by June, much less holding it.
Or is Cohen, like Corbyn, speaking in code. Perhaps "hold a second referendum" means "rescind the current invocation of Article 50". That could be done by the March 29 deadline, but just barely.
4
The Brexit vote demonstrated the great instincts of Brexiters in recognizing that the world is now at the threshold of momentous change that will fundamentally alter the global power structure in the coming decade, to the profound detriment of Europe, and the EU simply will not be able to withstand the extraordinary pressures it is about to be subjected to.
Better to abandon the sinking ship now to get a head start in the race to the future.
Brexit voters also recognized that the future will look nothing like the past, and the 21st century demands boldness in the face of unprecedented uncertainty, while Cohen and other dinosaurs still view the world through the lens of the 20th century, even as they finally rather sheepishly admit that they have failed spectacularly, whether in serving their citizens or reporting about it.
Unfortunately, Cohen's worldview seems to be prevailing, and Britain's "leaders" have once again failed their citizens, in the grand tradition of Thatcher and Blair, two of the most destructive leaders of our times (along with our own Reagan/Clinton duo, of course).
The status quo is one stubborn beast, and it is clear that it's not going down without a fight.
But it will surely lose; the developed world is simply too broken at this point.
And the longer the forces of the status quo manage to delay the inevitable, the bloodier the inevitable will be.
2
@TB
"...threshold of momentous change that will fundamentally alter the global power structure..."
Care to be a bit more specific?
2
Another victim of Brexit will be scientific research. EU-sponsored funding gathered from all the member states has gone back in increased amounts to research labs in the UK. Many of these labs in the UK are staffed by and in many cases run by French, German, Italian, Greek, etc. talent that will find themselves in a difficult situation. Funding sources will go dry, talent will be harder to recruit and progress towards curing diseases will be slowed down. While this may not interest those who voted in Swindon, their children will be all the poorer for it.
48
It's easy to knock the 52% who voted to leave, but in the US 99.9% would vote to stay out of such a union - imagine merging with Canada, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, being asked to join a new currency (the Americano, anyone?) and share identical burgundy passports with the other nations, not to mention a new flag and a capital in, say, Guatemala City, with its own President, parliament and court, and of course, get rid of all those borders. Not only does the US not want such a thing, neither does Japan, Brazil, Australia or almost anywhere else. The British, or at least 52% of them, are no different to most of the world, it would seem.
5
@George Haig Brewster
"...in the US 99.9% would vote to stay out of such a union "
The US is in such a union and has been for over 200 years. We actually fought a war to prevent some of the members leaving. We have a common language and currency but ideologically there are growing differences between the members. It could happen here, the way we're heading.
60
You honestly don’t know that England still has the pound.
My goodness, look at that.
15
@Robert
I said 'asked to join', which they were. They didn't.
2
Along with Brexit, they should get back to pence, shillings and crowns (and thrupence). That will do wonders for the tourist trade.
17
Knowing how the U.K. and London establishments lie to line their pockets, it's ridiculous to believe that Brexit was sold by bigger liars.
Look at the opponents of Brexit. NYC-based investment banks like J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs. U.S.-based globalists eager to protect their turf and business models. They talk their pocket books, and they can't and shouldn't be believed. They predict the unpredictable to scare people into opposing Brexit.
Change is scary for most people. Brexit opponents are weaponizing that fear.
Their big lie is that Brexit will destroy the U.K. The truth is that the EU already has destroyed the U.K. Brexit is the only way to prosperity and liberty for Britain, but that's not important to the trusty kids who are fighting Brexit.
This article was written by Roger Cohen, an admitted member of the U.K. establishment. It shows.
4
@Donald Johnson
Look at the opponents of Brexit. Young people. Retirees living in Europe. British scientists working in Europe. Their European colleagues working in the UK. Doctor's and nurses staffing the National Health. Need I go on?
33
75% of front-of-the-house workers in British restaurants are from other EU countries. The majority of professionals in UK's National Health System are from other EU countries. Many more examples...
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@Srinivu
Retirees living in Europe are terrified of losing health care coverage.
The scientists are going to have to apply for a work visa.
Young people failed to vote. They won’t do that again.
6
Perhaps this simple, Roger...
After sifting through a lot of news info, trying to figure out what any possible substantive upside to Brexit could be – came down to this...
A confluence of some people – and some politicians in Parliament – who feel their local standing is being undermined, most visibly by ceding control of what the US Congress calls earmarks...
At the end of the day it’d be symbolic victory, at best – more likely, pyrrhic...
But there is a way out – something like...
1. EU agrees to a 90 day extension
2. The sole purpose is to give the UK time to schedule a second referendum
3. The two choices are to accept the negotiated deal, or to remain in the EU
4. If the UK doesn’t schedule a vote to be held at least 30 days prior to the extension’s end-date, this would constitute formal agreement by Parliament to either (they must pick one – but, either one – at the extension’s outset):
> Remain in the EU
> Accept the negotiated deal
If they don’t pick one of these by the 29th, that constitutes a formal agreement by Parliament to a no-deal exit on that date...
No extension needed, in that case...
2
Politicians will rather jump over a cliff than admit they were fools.
Brexit was extremely foolish and the simplest solution is to can it.
But that one bridge too far for the British political class. Now they are doomed to preside over the transformation of Great Britain into Little Britain.
25
Long ago I learned that real politicians' words and actions can only be understood in terms of what is not said or not done. Yes is not the opposite of No; rather, Yes says something very different from what No would have said. And vice-versa. Inaction is as much an act as any other behaviour.
Theresa May is a real politician; a brilliant one, I think. When they stuck her with the PMship, I think she knew that the only way out of the mess would be very messy mayhem. She has nurtured it courageously. The younger generations will thank her for it.
Churchill was also a real politician; he understood the truth in conundrums: “So they go in strange paradox, decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all powerful to be impotent.” (Thanks for the quote, Mr Cohen.)
I don't like the idea of a second referendum on whether to leave the EU, because democracy means democracy.
But how about a second referendum on whether to *rejoin* the EU?
9
Cohen states that "the large flux of migrants across the world, billionaire-favoring taxes and stagnant wages" is not the EU's fault. The last two are certainly true for Britain, which never joined the EU currency zones, thus has always had control of its monetary and fiscal policy. However the same is most certainly not true for many of the southern European countries who belong both to the EU and the euro currency zone. The EU, with its unrelenting austerity ideology, should bear the blame for their economic stagnation. Re. "the large flux of immigrants," the EU is at fault for doing next to nothing to stop the flow at its height, and even silently offering incentives to migrants, such as the EU sanctioning of the so-called "rescue ships" that offered free taxi ferry service from the coast of Libya into Italy for a number of years. It was only when the befuddled Madam Merkel realized the enormity of her mistake of inviting migrants "with no limit on the numbers" that the Greece door was shut via her deal with Erdogan (which, by the way, completely bypassed the EU bureaucracy). In my opinion, it was this unchecked wave of migration in 2015 that pushed the British over the edge and convinced them to vote to leave the EU. Thus, I'm afraid, the EU bears a lot more fault for Brexit that it dares to admit.
10
Britons were tempted to vote for Brexit by the wording on a red Brexit tour bus saying "We send the EU £350 million a week / Let's fund our NHS instead Vote Leave".
Multiple British newspapers have disputed the £350 million figure; a Guardian article puts the actual weekly expenditure at around £160 million and notes that instead of it all going to the NHS, significant money would have to be spend on customs and legal advice.
12
"Liberalism worked well for a while. It was good at freeing people from bigotry, sexism, racism, nationalism and prejudice. It was less good at providing people with meaning to their lives, beyond hedonism and materialism. In 2008, with the financial crisis, the wheels came off. Those responsible walked away. A lot of people felt empty, and were drowning in debt. What had the elite ever done for them? Bigotry and nationalism made a storming comeback. That’s Brexit in a nutshell."
This is the best short summary of the recent collapse of the neo-liberal global order that I have yet seen -- not just applicable to Brexit but to western democracies generally. It is as relevant to understanding the US midwestern Rust Belt as to a London suburb. Well done.
The analysis seems to argue for the virtues of delay for delay's sake. The seething anger needs to subside before a rational decision can be made. The fever needs to break. If the stoic and understated Brits can't do it, nobody can.
14
@woofer I totally agree. Great comment!
The whole Brexit thing is all about revisionist historians who want to bring back the "grandeur"and colonial power of old British Empire. They are insulted by what they see as Britain's subjugation to the EU Brussels rule-writers and, even worse, the Germans.
Despite Churchill's efforts, the financial and other costs of two World Wars put an end to the Empire. Whether the Brexiteers like it or not, India (and Pakistan) is not coming back into the fold. Same for Egypt. The former African colonies are off on their own.
Whatever its history, Britain is now a relatively small country with limited resources. The EU has more to offer Britain than Britain has to offer the EU. The average Brit will find that out in time.
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@Jack Sonville Benjamin Franklin proposed to eventually move the center of the British Empire across the Atlantic. Regrettably, revolution got in the way.
Perhaps we could offer to divide the UK up into a number of states?
1
From what I have read, a lot of promises were made about the good times ahead if Britain got out of the EU. Now people are learning that a lot of those promises have turned out to be lies. That in itself is a good enough reason for another vote. People change their minds with new information why can't countries?
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The "affront to democracy" would not be revisiting the Brexit move with cool heads and cold hard reality in consideration.
The "affront to democracy" would be treating as irreversible a non binding resolution put forward with lies, with manipulative appeals to peoples' xenophobic fears, by politicians playing brinkmanship with the futures of England and the European Union.
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@NM
When I was little, I thought Democracy is the suppression of a minority by a majority. Later I learned that its a bit more complex, and that the minority keeps having a say and can become a majority if they are convincing. Not so with referendum-based national decision making. That reflects my early, childish concept of democracy.
11
Re : unprecedented but uneven prosperity\
It is in "uneven" where Brexit is burried
It is important to understand what drove Brexit
When the EU was enlarged to include Poland (wages 1/4 of France), Bulgaria (even lower) , Romania (yet lower) factories closed in high wage EU countries (UK, France) and moved East. A famous case study is that of the Whirlpool factory in Amiens that nearly derailed the campaign of Mr. Macron.
That is, wages moved to the EU average. That is they fell (in real term) in high wage countries and rose in low wage countries. Welcome in Poland (that however turned less democratic) and detested by the working population in Western Europe.
Concurrently, under the EU policy of free movement, Polish plumbers willing to work for less , moved to London, putting British plumbers out of work. This was welcome by the British elite, that now could their plumbing in their Victorian Townhouse repaired cheaper and promptly, but not by
British plumbers.
Eventually, the lower middle class revolted (as we see in France with the gillets jaunes, and in the US with Trump voters)
But the fault lies not with the lower middle class. The fault lies with the educated elite that should have foreseen the political consequences and installed a system of transfer payments from the elites (winners) to workers that lost good jobs)
That a) would have helped UK workers and farmers, and b) would have lessened the increasing inequality that, lies at the bottom of all
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@Woof
Specifically- "under the EU policy of free movement, Polish plumbers willing to work for less, moved to London, putting British plumbers out of work"
A counter viewpoint is that British people are reluctant to take certain types of tough hard jobs- even when the vacancies are widely available. Farmers cannot get field workers. Construction companies cannot get workers such as bricklayers, plumbers or electricians. Hospitality companies cannot get staff.
Historically this is not a new phenomenon. In the 1960's and 70's few British workers were prepared to drive trains or buses so the jobs were filled by advertising for migrants from the Caribbean.
There is no Free Movement to the UK because Britain is not in the Schengen Area. We can control our Borders if UK Governments chose to do so. The fact that UK Governments of all types don't is a deeper and very sensitive political question.
7
@Woof It is a common misconception that EU membership and freedom of movement has driven down wages, especially those among unskilled workers.
In fact, at least in the UK, there is _absolutely no evidence_ that this is true. The fall in wages corresponds with the crash of 2008, and has no correlation with immigration, much as Conservatives and Brexiteers would like us to believe otherwise!
http://www.primeeconomics.org/articles/vrlg17yxed1gjcxtbruxb5q5bppadn
5
We had a referendum in Quebec, I did not vote. Then 70 years old I thought it was for my children and my grand children to decide their future. I also was convinced that a strong majority was essential for the day after. I hope we will learn after the Brexit fiasco.
5
The deep & longstanding divisions within the UK Conservative Party were the reason the Brexit Referendum was called. Other deep & longstanding divisions within the UK Labour Party prevented that Party from forming a coherent position regarding Brexit (& other issues) throughout this saga. The political Parties in Northern Ireland & Scotland are predominantly different & opposed to those in the rest of the UK. England is riven by deep & longstanding regional & class divisions & economic prospects.
The calling of the Referendum, its close outcome, the aimless bickering that has marked UK politics since the Referendum result & lack of evolution of public opinion among many voters & the extent of artificial outward stability of each of the 2 leading Parties despite toxic internal divisions over Brexit & other issues seem odd at first glance given the social & economic divisions described above in the first paragraph.
The combination of factors mentioned in paragraphs 1 & 2 suggests that :
1. Whether a hard or soft Brexit now occurs or not, the Parties will have great difficulty addressing the ongoing stresses within the UK - stresses that will likely deepen.
2. Whether the Parties each maintain their current level of outward stability (or will fracture), the prospect that a coherent, stable & realistic Government will soon form capable of rallying the UK to creatively address its many problems appears remote.
It's all rather complex, unwieldy, & sad.
23
Do Nothing. What’s the worst that could happen, that hasn’t already ? Be VERY careful what you VOTE for. This is their Trump. Best wishes.
13
The two silliest decisions of recent years -- for Brexit and Trump -- were taken in the homelands of Thatcherism and Reaganism. But the notion that governments should take care of the rich while the non-rich take care of themselves has led only to stalled social mobility, an explosion in wealth disparity, and a consequent anger among those left behind.
The political question of the age is where that anger is directed. Sadly, the right has convinced too many people that the fault lies with foreigners -- instead of with the governments in London and Washington who for four decades have enacted policies so damaging to so many.
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"I grew up in a Britain where 'the Continent,' a faintly distasteful geographical mass associated with rabies and garlic, was far away."
I did too, and this one sentence is so very true. Without poisonous snakes, spiders, scorpions and diseases like rabies, the rest of the world can seem all-the-more hostile to Brits.
As for garlic, it does become the marker of foreignness, even though Brits now eat much more adventurously than they did.
16
@Julian. I grew up in the UK as well. That one sentence absolutely resonated with me, and made me smile for it's accuracy.
11
@Julian
"Brits now eat much more adventurously than they did" - seems an outdated quote, no? Nigella Lawson, Jamie Oliver, Gordon Ramsey and that British Baking Show, to name a few, are testament to the fact that food is taken very seriously in GB, and has been for a long time now. I find the food in Britain to be better than in France, Italy or the US. But those stories brought back to the US by GIs in WW2 still linger, for some bizarre reason.
4
Believe me, food was still awful in 70s Britain... and, while it is now so much better, I never find it as good as some people suggest it is.
9
Wonderful, insightful essay, Mr. Cohen.
The poster of Britain shooting itself in the foot is a wonderful analogy for Brexit. So is the old saying of cutting one’s nose off to spite one’s face.
I’m not sure which is best.
24
The majority now want to remain in the EU.
This is not so much a change of desire, as a realization that Brexit won't give them what they desire.
This was not the case during the campaign when outrageous lies and dark money painted the picture of a New British empire where lions and unicorns grazed in sunny pasture — with no foreigners.
Big lies were told by big money and now they've been revealed for what they were.
Many Brits who supported Brexit are now saying they'll boycott a second referendum. This is just a way to save face, because they're a stubborn lot and don't want to admit that they now realize they were wrong.
When people say "Just get on with it." They're expressing the absurdity of the media circus and the economic chaos not any real position on Brexit.
Nothing better could happen to Britiain or the EU than for the former to stay in the latter and fight for real reform from inside.
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@Arthur
The reason people who voted “Leave” in the referendum don’t want another referendum (and I am one) is that the government promised that whatever the people decided in the first referendum would be implemented. That appears to have been because they were confident that “Remain” was bound to win.
If the result of a second referendum was as close as the first, only this time the majority was for “Remain”, why would that be any more valid?
What price democracy?
1
This article hits the nail on the very head.
The only thing that doesn't seem quite right is the comment on "liberalism". I think the the problem has always been the failure to ensure that the whole of the population benefits from the prosperity of the "elites". It was Osborne's "austerity" targeted at the social safety net and public services, that provided the run-up to a leave vote in Cameron's referendum.
36
"“We get 1.5 pounds from the E.U. for every pound we put in,” he told me. “The University of Cambridge gets more than all of Romania.” Britain had invested heavily in Galileo, a global navigation satellite system created by the European Union. Now it has been shut out."
The more tidbits like this come out, the more Brexit is exposed for the sham that it was. Taking the Trump train for a dry run, Brexit foretold many of the disillusions some Trump supporters in the US feel now.
It's hard to own up to the fact that one's vote was based on disinformation and lies, false promises, and illogical expectations.
I really hope the public is given a chance to vote again, even if Swindon hasn't given up. Some folks prefer scapegoats to the harsh acceptance that globalism hasn't worked for everyone.
And if a second Brexit referendum fails, then please, British politicians, wake up. If you work as hard trying to fix Britain's problems as you did trying to force a round Brexit peg in a square EU hole, you should easily be able to cement a solid down-payment on your country's future.
105
I think a hard brexit would be a good thing. It would cause a decline in the UK of about 10% over time. That may help trigger a world wide economic crisis. That would slow the economy, cause stress and hopefully more regional wars and great amounts of turmoil and hopefully, fingers crossed, more death and a decline in population.
We're not going to address climate change so it will benefit future generations if we go through some very severe times for all. If not, then we'll just march straight on into extinction like microbes in a petri dish.
4
@chris: a bit too dystopian for my taste. But yes Brexit (and Trumpism) is an annoying and serious distraction from addressing the real threats to our civilization. There is still good reason to believe we can cooperate and work together to solve them. A good start would be to prevent Brexit and end Trumpism.
30
@Chris
That is a quite Modest Proposal!
In post-war Europe the American ideals of good government and cooperation through democracy took hold and flourished. They flourish still. Unfortunately Thatcher led inevitably to Brexit, and Reagan led inevitably to Trump. The idea that nothing good could come from government took root like a kudzu vine in America and England. Putin did a masterful job of exploiting that sentiment. The EU can fix neither America nor England. They must do it for themselves. I'm not hopeful.
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@syfredrick Everybody should read this comment.
1
It cannot be said enough that Brexit, Trump, Tea Party, authoritarian governments in the South Pacific and in Europe, nativism/nationalism, and resurgent fascism are all fruits of the same rotting tree. Governance structures that allow ontogeneric upward progress and mobility are no match for the power wielded by wealth consolidation forces. How will we get people, even in the most educated democracies, to make choices that will improve the lives of (all) their children? We need an example of a success and, as their history foretells, it does not appear we should be looking toward Briton for inspiration.
16
This is a confusing analysis of Brexit and Trumpism. Liberalism worked well for awhile, you say. Surely, the EU was a triumph of liberalism, as were "freeing people from bigotry, sexism, racism, nationalism and prejudice." But, were liberals really responsible for the 2008 financial crisis and the many years of austerity that followed? It seems to me that so-called conservatives have played a relentless role in obstructing every liberal initiative during the past 30-40 years, opposing all the policies and proposals that may have addressed the emptiness, lack of wage growth amid rising productivity, widening of inequality, and rising household debt. The elite were not the liberals, Carter or Clinton or Obama. The real culprits leading us to current conditions, starting with Nixon and Reagan, were Bush Sr & Jr, Newt and Cheney and Rumsfeld, aided and abetted by the famous illiberal media manned by Murdoch, Ailes, and all their faux friends. Thatcher, Major, Cameron, were they all pursuing a liberal agenda? Let's give credit where it is due. Globalization and liberal democracies changed the world, but they didn't change the political landscape, and may have even hardened ideologies as they made communication easier and extended their reach. It isn't liberal democracy that failed its citizens. It's those who have thwarted, thru ignorance or actual malice, the development of programs and policies that would have addressed the problems that resulted in Brexit and Trump.
325
Cohen is referring to Liberalism in the original, European sense: the ideology of (personal) freedom and equality, as well as of opening markets and furthering globalization. Liberalism in Europe is still a center-right ideology.
The Conservative-"Liberal" contradiction in which the definition of Liberalism has somehow been changed, is a uniquely American construct and very confusing for the rest of the world. The rest of the world would never label the American Democratic Party a Liberal party.
53
The financial crisis of 2008 was, if not created, then made possible, by Bill Clinton.
As a liberal minded European socialist, I often wish my liberal friends cared less about identity politics and more about community. From what I witness here in Germany and Great Britain (and France and Italy etc) Mr Cohen description of Brexit and what caused it is absolutely correct.
13
It would be disingenuous to place all the blame on Republicans. President Clinton was not a liberal but a pragmatist with an uneven knowledge of economics. When he got into bed with Phil Gramm to dissolve the Glass-Steagel act his rationale was that what was good for Wall Street would be good for middle class America. That was a bizarre second cousin to the trickle down policy beloved by right wing economists and led to the massive recession that Obama stepped into. The reality is that neither pure capitalism nor pure socialism is an effective framework for a prosperous society, rather a skilled marriage of the two. America has been staggering between the extremes like a drunken chicken for decades with less and less politicians adhering to a sensible middle position. Perhaps it is time for reconsidering how we vote in our so-called leaders.
21
Remain for now!
Where "for now" is a long, long time.
8
Wonderful stuff - but only half way there:
As I have already commented in my website magazine the choice that the ruled are being increasingly given is between the Big Con and the Big Lie.
The Big Lie is what has gone before – the promise that successive generations will be more prosperous, better educated and freer of all manner of prejudices and discrimination than their parents - a polished but unreal reflection exposed as smoke and mirrors, with the glass clearing after the 2008 Financial Crash to show the fresh-faced zeitgeist Dorian Grey as he really was.
The truth is simply that ‘Progress’ cannot be guaranteed – and that in a world of increasing environmental degradation, looming resource scarcities and burgeoning competition for resources [especially from powerful rivals like China] the chances of universal perpetual incremental improvement have shrunk to zero.
And nobody wins election in democracies by arguing for prudence, retrenchment, and spending on basics and improved resilience.
The Big Con is the territory of Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and Vladimir Putin – the promise that ‘strong’ charismatic leadership will carry the day – that the patent political snake-oil remedies of showmen will cure all ills.
Will we ever develop the collective understanding, consensus and political to tackle the pervasive global policy paralysis that is overwhelming us in the West?
Sadly, I am coming to the view that we will not.
18
@Keith Johnson
Sadly, cynicism doesn’t match reality.
Michigan just elected a new Governor and leaders who campaigned exactly on ...’prudence...and spending on basics and improved resilience’ (infrastructure). And although we are famous for Cong. Tlaib, we also elected new young moderates such as Congresswomen Stevens and Slotkin. Plus one of the rare sensible Republican Congressman, Mr. Amash.
6
What's next? I think that is fairly easy to predict.
As soon as electorally possible, a Labor majority will come to power. The country they are going to govern will be remarkably different going forward than what it is today.
Me home country will soon thereafter be reunited. Scotland will hold a referendum for independence and win as well, rejoining the European Union.
England will develop into some quasi tax lowered country along the lines of Singapore and try again and again to develop some favorable trade status, but will be continuously rebuffed. Along the way, the monarchy may even come crashing down, as the hardship all around will be glaring against the backdrop of castles and crown jewels.
All of it self inflicted.
168
@FunkyIrishman
The only part of England that could even be remotely successful on the Singaporean modern is London. Do you really think that Singapore would be the country it is, if it had been part of the country of Malaysia?
My solution is a negotiated delay to Brexit, for the Scots, a revocation of the 1707 Act of Union. For N. Ireland stay with England, join Ireland, or join Scotland. Wales might be more tricky but they are fairly close to Ireland. England can then freely leave the E.U., while the rest remain.
13
@Alison Cartwright Ireland is part of the EU on its own; Scotland is not, except as part of the UK. So if we assume a hard Brexit, Northern Ireland could indeed decide to unite with the Republic of Ireland. If the Scots were to revoke the Act of Union, Scotland would either need to somehow form a union with Ireland (which would be interesting) or apply for EU membership on its own. In either case, there would then be the need for a hard border between Scotland and England. In that case, I hope that an appreciation for history and a bit of Monty Python-esque humor would prevail and the border between England and Scotland would be called Hadrian's Wall. Cheers.
75
@AP18
A second hard border would likely be the M25, creating a Singapore-like EU enclave surrounded by rural non-EU England. The City would have its exclaves at Oxford and Cambridge.
13