British democracy and American democracy both failed spectacularly in 2016.
In the US, our warped system that gives extraordinary power to rural (read ignorant) voters totally bit us on the hindquarters.
In the UK, anti-immigrant bigotry among the non-thinking classes was stirred up by zealots.
It’s time for a new system. In the US, the Constitution needs to change to provide a simple majority vote for President, and a number of Senators proportional to the state population.
I have no idea what Britain should do. I’m too busy getting ready to pass my Constitutional Amendment.
41
There's no "crazed Brexit vortex" -- which make his human-created, utterly self-inflicted fiasco sound like some natural force of nature, like the notorious polar vortex."
Brexit is a self-inflicted political crisis: cooked up by Dodge Dave Cameron as a cheap political stunt -- which exploded big-time in his face,m like some slapstick exploding cigar. Faced with a monumental blunder, Dave got going... right out of government, seeking refuge in his little £20,00 backyard writing shack "Fortress of Solitude.''
Meanwhile, arch-demagogues like BoJo and Farage bloviated and pumped up the balloon of Brexit with a lot of duplicitous hot air.
And then along comes Maysie the Unready... perfectly adamant in binding Britain to a ball-and-chair linked to disaster, with her endless lies and dissimulation, her endless "deals" (which essentially just restate the original terms), and her arrogant refusal to consider any other course of action. Even as the clock tolls 11;55 and the huge ice-berg of calamity looks "deak ahead".
And as calamity nears, Corbyn dithers (thereby snatching defeat out of the jaws of political victory for Labour) and a few Tories try to jump ship at the last minute, claiming principles of some kind, when all the wat to do is distance themselves from that calamity they've been actively or tacitly supporting for years now!
The utter and complete failure of the British Parliamentary and political system is simply jaw-dropping.
All from a self-inflicted crisis.
27
The Queen, is in the parlor, eating (Brexit) bread and honey, the King (Trump) is in the White House....counting out his money. The workers are in the garden hanging up their clothes.
Isn't it odd? Isn't it bliss? That America and Britain are both suffering existential crises at the same time today? That both countries are being held hostage by their leaders? That both countries are sailing in the Titanic?
17
What about disbanding Parliament with a new election because this Parliament abdicated their duty by subjecting the country’s history to a single vote where one option was nothing? I suppose that the time has past for that? What sayeth the Queen?
3
You wish to remain. Every cockney is entitled to his opinion, but your treatment, screaming banners from one side, is merely is arrogant and temerarious bigoted noise. The flow of history from Bretton Woods, UN etc. forward is towards international regimes of cooperation, and yes, integration. But it is a mistake to say that end points always imply the best way forward now. What has become of Etruscan, Carthaginian and Mayan trade deals. Boundaries, nations and peoples evolve over time; they certainly have done so in Europe. Advocacy for “permanent” political, economic and currency union as an inevitable postulate of gradual evolution is simply foolish. What do we actually know? There will be winners and losers; the less guidance governing the transition, the more harm will be done. That is all. Beyond that, if Euro and EU collapse, UK will look brilliant. If legions of refuges from Africa and Asia create an integrated EU economic powerhouse that dwarfs USA and the China Belt Road, UK will look insignificant. But the decision has been made. Go forward on March 29; Good Friday Belfast, as the template of future relations between all people and nations (based on the self-proclaimed identity of each individual) is sacrosanct above all, so UK will exercise its sovereignty, and will accept, by reservation/codicil so much of the acquis and May deal as will be beneficial. UK will announce zero tariffs and will follow WTO. New arrangements will follow. Leave it there Mr. Cohen.
5
The wanna-be elites of the American coastal progressive media will NEVER forgive British workers for not trusting their globalist masters.
Yet every week we see news or personal accounts of attacks on British citizens - especially women and girls - because they told the wrong immigrants ''No!'' to a sexual attempt, or resisted having personal belongings stolen from them.
Why the people ''leading'' Britain - once referred to as ''Great'' Britain - have thrown the nation into a deluge with unwise immigration may never be known, but personal safety is a promary driver of workers' and other citizens' determination to be released from the European demands for more and more new people who will never even consider joining the cultures of their new homes.
The Brexit vote is a complete rejection of unelected non-British bureaucrats ordering them to sacrifice everything they ever held dear and considered to be their rights.
Remember, the Stamp Act itself never sounded so bad as described;what made it into tyranny was its enforcement that affected EVERY aspect of life and civil rights for the Colonists under George III. This is the crisis requring a Brexit.
7
I'd like to read a clear analysis of the losers and winners from a hard Brexit: which industries and businesses, which regions, which political institutions and agencies. My sense though, is that the ERG is more driven by doctrine/ideology than material interests - they simply do not want Britain to be part of a larger political entity. Which is fine albeit mistaken. But either they are idiots if they believe that their recalcitrance in Parliament will strengthen the UK's bargaining hand, or more likely they have adopted that as a cynical pose to give them cover while pushing the UK into a no-deal exit.
4
I have friends in England & they all voted for Brexit. Why? They were quite clear about it. They dislike foreigners & immigrants. It was very disheartening
18
Agree entirely, have nothing to add.
3
First recognize who May is, in her bones: granddaughter of a butler, daughter of a vicar, wife of an investment banker. It's yes, m'lud, I live to serve all the way. P.G. Wodehouse would envy such a creation if she were fiction, if she wasn't so horribly real and totally out of it as far as a livable future is concerned. Nonetheless, these are the perfect credentials to lead the Brexit tribe into the wilderness.
Her hidebound vision and crass opportunism has turned Britain into a rolling, slo-mo train wreck, a monumental failure on so many counts: of the imagination, of evidence based thinking, of our responsibility for our children's futures; a failure, above all, of its education system in the face of post-imperial delusions, jingo nationalism, ethnic and racial prejudice, geopolitical/economic ignorance, and the primitive tribal hysteria exhibited by much of its population. We get to watch patriotism used as a handi-wipe by government as reality TV.
And then there is Labour, bleating like lost sheep with demented commissar for a shepherd. Out of it too.
Brexit is a signal failure of the political class to defeat the dark, regressive forces that are driving the rupture, spearheaded by a lethal press and all in service of the offshore realm. Duped and duped again by the smoothest of liars, a decent future for the young is about to be thrown under the Brexit bus. I am 69 and can see quite clearly.
160
The 'yes/no' option on the referendum ballot was like asking 'The Meaning of Life - yes or no?' A ridiculous question with only ridiculous answers. No one had any idea what they were being asked in June 2016, and in February 2019 we remain none the wiser. The English phrase for such a mess is 'a dog's dinner', but that does injury to the dignity of dogs everywhere.
168
Brexit was sold to Brits like Trump sold himself to Americans. The main draw was racist in both cases; take our country back from those people. All of the other appeals where just the cherry on top, or more appropriately the less embarrassing excuse for voting against your own self interest. Dog whistles work well in all nations, reminding the populace of who they need to hate and fear.
50
To a political junky like myself I see Brexit like news from the Middle East, Afghanistan, Africa, Venezuela, Brazil, Pakistan , India etc similar to what I have read for years. I see the headline and turn the page without reading for the problems remain the same as are the so called solutions and there is nothing we can do about their self imposed misery.
My focus has become electing people at the local, state and national level that will scrub the filth from the body politic that the Republicans have spread for the last decades.
The rest of the world will have to take care of themselves.
10
Weather report, London: Fog over the Channel, Continent cut off!
10
Entropy has a new synonym...... Brexit.
9
Just keep re-voting until we get the result that Roger Cohen personally prefers! Yeah, that sounds totally fair.
11
A fifth option—revocation of article 50 by Parliament before March 29. Not likely to happen, admittedly.
8
Jacob Rees-Mogg does not exist. He is purely a Dickens invention, so well created a twit as to appear almost alive.
9
If Brexit goes through and the people of Great Britain feel the economic pain, will we see the rise of fascism in Britain? After all, you need to be mean to take out your frustrations on any scapegoat at hand. The triumph of evil, perhaps.
10
Please remember, it isn't just Brexit. It's Brexit/Trump. They are one and the same. The sneak attack by low information, pigeon holeing voters who want everything to be Black and White, and their world be the White one. Granted the Grey minded voters took a nap during this cataclysm, but their awake now, and attempting to right the situation.
19
WHAT DOES THE UK FACE? Is it certain mayhem, or a fight over the height of May's hem? In either case, there is no basis for planning to have the UK go into free fall after 3/29! By the time the bottom drops out of the financial markets, it will be too late. Toyota has closed its car manufacturing plant. They may be the first out the door. But they will be far from the last. Rumor has it that the Brexit vote as rigged by Russian hacking. Because of the hacking, the US has been stuck with an unspeakable Trump. The outcome of Russian hacking will be that the UK will have committed economic suicide. So much for taking charge of their own fate. What Destiny holds for the UK after March 29th is going to be the greatest success that Russian hacking has garnered. The Brits said that they will not suffer military grade Russian nerve agents used on their soil. Why, then are the suffering Russian hacking as the basis for holding on to the lethal Brexit with no plan beyond leaping into the abyss. May is giving lie to the lyrics of "Hail Britannia," Hail Britannia, Britania rules the waves. Britania never shall be slaves! But they will, indeed be slaves after 3/29. Slave to the hacking of the Slavs doing Putin's dirty work and sabotage. It was said that the sun never set over the British empire. Now it looks more like what's left of the British empire will be underwater after 3/29. Britannia will NOT rule the waves! Britannia shall be beneath the waves! And be slaves!
9
Not clear why the Times is sparing all this newsprint on an issue that is singularly insignificant to the United States. The U.K. has not been a player in international affairs for decades, contributing little to the defense of itself or the West, having spent the last several generations living in safety under the nuclear umbrella of its long term ally, continuing its safety net function that rescued its fortunes (existence) during the last two world ward. Brexit or not, the U.K. economy, for good or ill (for itself), won't affect the United States, or Europe. Self-inflicted wounds - who cares?
9
I hope we find out about any Putin efforts to influence that Brexit vote
8
A superb analysis!
5
Angela Merkel is responsible for this. She encouraged 1 million economic migrants to swarm Europe's borders thereby breaking faith with the union. That outrageous action pushed the U.K. into the Brexiteers' arms.
What a shameful legacy she leaves behind, She can't go quickly enough. She has done incalculable damage to European politics and security.
14
This is a great example how lies and fake news can wreck a country along with the fact every vote is important so get out and vote.
23
Explains The Somme.
3
Putin has done a lot of damage to Britain and the USA.
13
This sets the stage perfectly for a fascist takeover. Couldn't have been planned better. Hm-m-m-m?
America is also destroying itself.
Putin's dream come true; The world's two leading democracies self destruct.
It's happening, kids. It's happening.
In Assassins Gate the reporter asked a doctor how people could follow the horrible orders of Saddam and others. It started with not saying no to small things at the start, hoping it wouldn't go further.
Lesson there for all of us.
20
A second referendum is a "must." Nothing else counts.
7
“Abetted by a dissembling anti-American Labour leader.”
What does that phrase have to do with the thesis of the article?
This was a reasoned article until that non-sequiter of a sentence got thrown in.
Thanks for this debacle are particularly due to the following Brexit supporting cast members:
* David Cameron, for the pandering that opened the door;
* Rupert Murdock, for a business model based on stoking resentment;
* Russia, for doubtless sowing division at critical vote time;
* Elites, for being clueless about the national temperament;
* Boris Johnson, for Trumpian demagoguery, dissembling and blond opportunism;
The common factor above is putting their own interests before those of the British people.
On the other side of the vote, young people, who have a much greater stake in the effects of this decision were significantly against it.
Let's hope and pray there is the possibility for another vote.
19
Whatever will happen end of March, the world keeps on turning and spin doctors, manipulators, demagogues and flag wavers will sell it as their big achievement and success.
Brexit is worth it, who cares for a broken economy if you get back your blue passports!
There is no more truth, only fake news, propaganda and disinformation.
O tempora, o mores!
6
Do the hard brexit.
Do it for sanity. This is the only attestation for a such deeply agitated society, that they have been taken for a ride by liars and populists. A second referendum will just pull back britain from falling of the cliff by a few inches, but the trolls will immediately start on pushing again. I want instead these trolls go over the cliff, i want these guys like Nigel Farage, Jacop Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson taken out of business for once and all. A second referendum won't do that. That's why i want an hard and painful brexit.
15
Brexit was sold with implausible lies. If politicians can lie without suffering any consequences, then let the voters who are willfully stupid enough to believe the lies suffer the consequences. I will quote to Britain its own poet William Blake: “Dip him in the river who loves water.”
2
It's like "'V' for Vendetta" but backwards and inside out.
1
Roger, if the British get a second referendum, can us folks in America get a second vote on Trump and Hillary — unaided, of course, by Russian meddling?
11
All due to looking at the past with rose coloured glasses.
6
34 days to go until we will witness the biggest selfmade disaster of a nation.
This probably will effect the world economy and might lead to a major recession. Too bad the NYT is not reporting much about it because we are busy with our own disaster.
6
Why is it that whenever elections produce results that liberals don’t like they are immediately characterized as “manipulated by lies”?
3
The 'Great' Britain of yore has become the 'Little' Britain of now principally because of globalization and the ascendancy of other economies...but the delusional Churchillian old guard wrongly blame the EU for its demise.
Self amputation indeed!
11
The idea that Americans would enter into trade deals only on the basis that sovereignty and decision making was handed over to foreign powers is inconceivable.
Britain has different views on the wisdom of pooling sovereignty than continental Europe in part because it has a very different history: ‘standing alone’ in 1940 when the continent either suffered or chose to facilitate the nazi’s.
It is also apparent to impartial observers that the EU has some major economic structural issues and it’s undemocratic unelected central bureaucracy is hell bent on expanding its reach and power, as all unelected bureaucracies do.
That is not to say that the U.K. has been wise; either in choosing to leave or more pertinently the manner of its exit.
I suspect it is true to say that in the long run, ‘ever closer union’ is not something that was going to work for the majority of Brit’s.
It is just such a shame that for political reasons, the process will be so damaging for both sides. A lack of reality from the Brits and a lack of statesmanship from the EU. To paraphrase one of our more lamentable politicians, what is the point of a club that has to compel membership through fear.
6
Brexit is Putin's handiwork.
7
The chaos and uncertainty within the UK government MP's and parties are sadly reminiscent of the dithering and indecision leading up to the beginning of WW2. The UK was not prepared to go to war with Hitler, but once they were in it, they united and stood alone, weary but undefeated until help came from Russia, the USA and others.
If history proves anything, Britain will once again survive against the odds just like the survived the Nazis and before that the Germans in WW1, the French, the Dutch, the Spanish Amada, the Normans and even Caesar's Legions.
They might wind up battered and bruised, but they will survive Brexit. It's in their DNA.
4
You are right to describe the situation as “a jumble of jargon, jousting and gibberish, with everyone sucked into the vortex of confusion.”
The “backstop” is a good example.
It is a legally binding provision in the withdrawal agreement that carves the UK into two pieces for an indefinite time, possibly forever. In one piece of the formerly United Kingdom UK law will govern. In the other piece, EU law will preempt UK law wherever they conflict. It is as though tRump agreed in a border treaty with Mexico that Mexican law shall apply throughout the state of New Mexico and US law shall govern in the other 49 states in return for which a wall will be built.
“Annexation” or “amputation” might be a more accurate term than “backstop.”
4
The Lib Dems captured the best campaign slogan for every relevant issue: BREXIT WRECKS IT.
6
And staring John Cleese as Prime Minister Faulty.
3
On the alleged benefits of this debacle, you left out the obvious, little England’s manhood will be doubled and if they play their cards right, quadrupled. Yeaaaaaah.....
2
Brexiteers are Gaulists. He is having a post mortem laugh.
4
Most of the editorial is disputable: for instance, the promises of "Global Britain" can not possibly take root until the conditions necessary have happened. They can't be broken promises until Brexit happens, because they have not been proven wrong yet. That's simple logic. It's particularly true if Brexit does not give the British the right to negotiate trade deals with whoever they want, which was surely a precondition of any promise about a new trade relationship with the world.
That most damning sentence is: " A country that has benefited from its 46-year participation in a union of more than a half-billion Europeans ". Apparently these benefits were rather obscure. This is a country of deeply conservative instincts. And yet, on pretty high turnout too, Brexit won. If this is a mistake, you condemn the very principles of democracy.
Never forgetting that it was also a referendum that lead the British in the EEC, which become the EU. I very, very much doubt that the voters in 1972 had any concept of what they were signing up for: no border control to the Poles and Romanians? If you talk about misleading campaigns, you could no doubt go back to the first referendum and be just as critical.
3
Madness. Madness and stupidity.
10
I’d be interested in Cohen’s opinion about whether Corbyn is an antisemite
2
David Cameron - called for the referendum after making the most cynical, and disastrously ill-judged political calculation about his personal political future.
Jeremy Corbyn - spent the entire period of the run-up to the referendum vote “damning Europe with faint praise” every chance he got, while making his own personal political calculations about his position in a post-Brexit Great Britain.
Boris Johnson switched from being a Remainer to a hardline Brexiteer in the blink of an eye after calculating the possibility that he could become prime minister in a post-Brexit political vacuum.
Nigel Farage, a walking caricature of xenophobia (and misogyny) with his own outsize political dreams, told his supporters that every one of their legitimate grievances about the NHS, loss of manufacturing jobs and income inequality, could be solved by leaving the EU and chucking out “Johnny-foreigner.”
Theresa May, a “Remainer” before the referendum clearly knows Brexit is an utter fiasco, but will do anything to stay in Downing Street.
There are plenty of other players in this story, including the Russians, but the one thing they all have in common is how their every decision “pre” and “post” Brexit has been defined by their own narrow political interests and has nothing to do with the good of the country.
14
Cohen poses at the end of his astute piece that the best solution to avert this rather obvious economic and social disaster is a redo referendum. I completely agree. My take is that the U.K, more or less, popped a screw loose in 2016 like we did here in the in our presidential contest. Fortunately, we have started electorally righting the ship of state with the 2018 Blue Wave and will hopefully have her upright in 2020. It seems the U.K’s only option of crashing itself out of a first-world economic nation is give its people the opportunity of admitting a mistake.
10
Scott Nolde provides a correct analysis. Dear Roger overcooks the Lies Damned Lies. There was a sparsity of truth from all sides and a confused Britain took the view"enough already"!
Yes, there will be major problems. They must be faced and the May government appears to be focussing upon trivia as opposed to the big picture.
I believe that car makers are suffering a global downturn, in part caused by Lies (those Lies again) as to performance! It is very convenient to blame Brexit.
2
What the British people failed to understand is that Imperail Brussels must make an example of any peoples who dare defy them. Democracy be damned, the will of the plutocrats must be enforced.
2
It is too late already, the end is nigh, the charms wound up.Ten years from now Scotland will be in the EU, Ireland will be united, and England will be the land of Polish plumbers and pudding. Two Tory leaders have broken the country, one in calling the referendum, and one in following it blindly towards the cliff of March 29th. Leadership was absent. I blame the BBC: when it allowed the vernacular to be broadcast, it enabled the derision of standards and brought forth a government of plodding mediocrity.
May God save the Queen, since May has fractured the country.
309
@Gerard
A similar, equally complex and even diabolical thing happened here in the states in 2016. Our current president, putting his finger to the wind, promised the moon and the stars. All sorts of people bought it, enough to beat out the opposition - a known but not inspiring quantity. The hope here is that we can go in the right direction in 2020, while I'm not sure what the hope is for poor old England.
Both countries have suffered under trickle down/austerity - and it has finally caught up with both. God save the Queen indeed.
308
@Ellen At least we can enjoy the felicitous remarks of our more literate English brethren! "Leaving and going somewhere are not the same thing!" They always find imaginative ways of "muddling through." Would that our own spokesmen and women could coin equally succinct and pithy phrases to describe our own debacle.
80
@Bob Schneider
As a former Brit, I can assure you that turns of phrase on this side of the pond can be equally descriptive. The leaders of both nations are desperately trying to make things look good even they are not - or, putting lipstick on a pig.
67
So here we are. For centuries, Britain supposedly knew better than peoples thousands of miles from its shores how to govern. Now my native land shows just how pathetically incapable it is of governing itself.
I'm hoping against hope that some attack of sanity saves EU membership. But as another reader suggests, you can't blame the remaining members of the EU if they shut the door.
This has to be Britain's worst-ever peacetime crisis, with no heroic statesman or woman in sight to handle it as Churchill handled the darkest hour of early WW II. Far from it, in fact. The cast of villains is depressing to behold:
David Cameron started the ball rolling because a successful Remain vote would be a sure thing, rout the Tory Brexiteers, cement the Tories' hold on power and his hold as party leader;
Theresa May - thought she could set the terms of divorce, and come out with all the advantages of EU membership without any obligations - yeah, right;
Feckless (good word, Roger) Jeremy Corbyn - Brexiteer at heart, but smart enough to see Brexit as a looming disaster, then refusing to take a lead in averting it - too intent on jockeying for power in post-Brexit Britain;
And many more - Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage - all vain products of the English public (ie, private) school system. Even Sir James Dyson, of vacuum cleaner fame - pushed Brexit but now announces he'll move his company HQ to Singapore.
Farewell Great Britain, hello little England.
544
@mancuroc
This is certainly one of the peak historic examples of governmental incompetence and fecklessness, both separately and together.
104
@mancuroc Very well said. Even if one supports Brexit in principle, one cannot but be amazed at the cumulated incompetence, selfishness, and capacity to lie from this lot.
The UK parliament can still do the right thing: take control and pull the plug on the Brexit.
78
I totally agree with you. The stupidity of Brexit is mind boggling. At the other side of the Channel we watch open mouthed trying to get what on earth makes people act so much against their own interests. The only upside I see is that after March 29th the British governments and their supporting tabloids can no longer blame their own failures on the EU (well, they will, but nobody will care anymore).
114
Since we have a long common history and somewhat the same language and culture (after all, we do so much love the Queen on Masterpiece Theatre), why doesn't the U.K. just join the U.S.A. as economic territory (i.e. our colonies)? ;-)
7
Trump and Brexit spring from the same root. A comfortably off self styled elite who can’t let go of the assumption that what is good for them is good for everybody. The author of this article being a prime example.
I’m very nicely off and benefit from Britain’s membership of the EU. But I understand that competition from uncontrolled immigration has depressed wages among the working class whilst putting up their rents and putting pressure on the social services.
I visit England from time to time and quite frankly a lot of people won’t be worse off because they don’t have anything to lose, and I understand some parts of America are even worse. The cure may be worse than the disease, but would the “deplorables” have been better off under Clinton?
8
This is who politicians are and what they do - always in the name of "the people" - no real leaders and just on interest - self and party gang, which in Britain and elsewhere is also fraying.
Democracy is great; the people and who they elect are the problem.
Incompetence, arrogance, and greed run the world with no thoughts for children or the future but one's own.
3
Brexit - def'n: Isolation without the need of an expensive southern wall.
11
Agreed. Brexit is, and always was, a disaster. It was based on false promises and lies,namely the one where the people were told not to worry because 2 years is plenty of time to sort it all out. How do you sort out 47 years of entanglement in 2 years? like the NHS lies of Nigel Farage, the numbers do not add up.
8
Only Donald Trump could engineer a worse deal than Brexit. My sincere sympathy goes out to my friends in the UK.
10
Let’s pray for Britain’s future and that a second referendum is offered and that Brexit is rejected, so that this tragic comedy and absurd act of national destruction ends. Then the politics must change. The
addled and hard right nationalistic Conservative party needs to be thrown out of power to be replaced by a more moderate and sanely liberal labor party bereft of their terrible leader Jeremy Corbyn. That at least is my dream of a relatively happy ending for this farce.
5
The vote/decision in favor of Brexit was ill-considered and the “facts” surrounding it were misrepresented. However, even more disconcerting is the process that exists around EU membership. Apparently, if at anytime a member country’s citizenry does not support EU membership, then that country can leave the EU. But if the country were to hold a referendum and its citizens vote to remain in the EU, nothing precludes another vote to leave in the future. So, in essence, to remain, the citizenry must support EU membership 24/7 365 for eternity. To leave, the citizenry must oppose membership for the one day that a vote is held, and, according to the Brexiteers, that decision can never be revisited. Brilliant! Under such a construct, the United States would have desolved, at the latest, in 1794.
2
"The bottom line is simple: Brexit has been, is and will be a disaster for Britain. The 2016 vote was manipulated through lies. A country that has benefited from its 46-year participation in a union of more than a half-billion Europeans is drifting toward a self-amputation understood by few, opposed by the young, abetted by a dissembling anti-American Labour leader, driven by little-England Tory right-wingers holding the country for ransom, and, according to polls, no longer wanted by the majority."
Could not have been put better, Mr Bruni! As Abraham Lincoln said, "A house divided against itself cannot stand", quoting the Bible.
5
There is a lot of schadenfreude to go around these days; farmers with no market due to trump tariffs, people who owe taxes due to the gop un-tax cut, businesses without workers because there is no reasonable immigration policy to allow immigrants to work , Brits without jobs as finance and industry exit the chaos. The list goes on but the moral of these self inflicted wounds is that age-old adage “You reap what you sow” Sow hate and divisiveness and you will reap disaster and economic ruin, too bad for the rest of us caught in the fallout.
11
Referenda are inherently divisive affairs. In '95 fifty thousand votes out of five million cast were all that separated No from Yes on Quebec's leaving Canada. The leader of the separatists at the time Jacques Parizeau, bitter after his loss and blaming it on 'money and the ethnic vote' , admitted that had his side won he would have unilaterally declared Quebec sovereign - Quebecers, pro and con, knew at that moment they'd dodged a bullet. Seeing what's been going in with BREXIT we know now it even more.
7
When arrived to the UK in 1979 was astonished about the country's elitism, exceptionalism and envious obsession against the Germans (as if the war had just ended). I was particularly astonished at the "Hang Mandela!" preached by the hard line conservative elite that has now to impose Brexit through manipulation of right wing populism. I see now a reaction, namely a newly found pro Europe attitude among the younger generation about to be crushed by Brexit. We now need a new referendum to see whether Britain actually want to follow the past of insular fascist like nationalism or whether it should return to the humanist, world-open approach that preceded the take over by those who after proposing Mandela's hanging, want to hung themselves with the Brexit rope.
4
The will of the people or of the government?
2
How about: amended May accord fails to secure parliamentary approval; the March 29 deadline is extended; more hand wringing before a second referendum finally kills Brexit. Breathe easy again...
1
Why no mention of racism and xenophobia? These are what's driving Brexit — both generally among underemployed and underpaid towns filled with EU workers from the continent as well as Pakistanis and West Indians — and also personally in Teresa Mays whole career from her stint at the Home Office where she instituted and accelerated a hostile environment to get rid of foreigners and then as the accidental Prime Minister when all the senior Tory men formed a circular firing suad that left only Teresa standing.
Brexit is coming. It will be a disaster. And it was sold and is being delivered upon the lie that it will make England English again and that means whiter. Only irrational hate could cause this sort of self harm, and behing the hate — jealousy of the wealth of a grand multi-cultural capital that many English don't feel deserves it because they don't have it.
8
For the same reason there is no solution for a Northern Ireland backstop, there will never be a solution for a Northern Ireland backstop. Punting the ball would solve anything.
1
It’s always a marvel for an outsider to witness Prime Minister’s Questions every Wednesday in the British House of Commons. It brings us a view of what a “ government of the day” is like when the chief exexecutive must stand before the legislature for almost weekly accountability.
Wouln’t be interesting to have Trump standing at a “Dispatch Box” and have Chuck Schumer and others send pointed questions his way before a nationally televised audience?
5
For the first referendum the choice basically was presented, after all the propaganda set in, between “do you want to stay enslaved to the bureaucrats in Brussels,” and “do you want your empire back and rule the world.” Clearly a false choice.
In reality, Putin weaponized the refugee crisis in Syria to destabilize the EU. Brexit is the direct result of this, and will weaken both Britain and the EU. Putin is a shrewd chess player, and strategizes for the long term. With Brexit, Europe, including Britain, loses while Russia wins.
Now that it becomes clear what the options of leaving and remaining really entail, the British people should get the final say.
3
Those who "just want to see it all burn" need to be reminded that the winds are fickle and the flames are as likely to turn back on one's own house as not.
3
Gibraltar, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, England, and well London as its own city state......a few new nations to consider.
I wonder which will join the European union first?
4
Baffling why so many people, including Roger Cohen, assume that a second vote will overturn ‘leave’.
1
The Russians interfered with the initial Brexit vote in the same way they interfered with the 2016 US election—utilizing lies from social media and corrupt politicians. Putin has destroyed two once-great nations.
1
Very well written. When my own country, Denmark, voted no to the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, Boris Johnson was then a journalist covering European affairs, and he was commenting on the result, colorful as always, saying that "Denmark would now be left in a room by itself with a bottle of Whiskey and a gun". Ironic it is, that he himself has spearheaded a campaign which means that Britain skipped the room and whiskey part and simply blew its own head off in full public view.
6
As this tragedy unravels Americans must be provided with “footnotes”.
Brexit is first and foremost a clever power grab that like exploitation of racists was by Republicans provided political power. Brexit is based on racism and xenophobia fostered by corporate greed. Inequality was “attributed” to an influx of “foreigner immigrants”and EU rules. The majority of citizens were duped into identifying immigrants and foreign competition and the EU. Help came in to the Brexiters by way of Putin bots and AMI propaganda. Like American Republicans, Brexiters seized power by using the propaganda just as reluctant Republicans embraced Trump, while holding their noses, and tolerated the assaults upon our press and Clinton and then passively gave power and loyalty to Trump. Now, like Americans, Britain is faced with buyer’s remorse and both are still under the custody of Putin’s duplicitous “allies”.
Republicans and Brexiters are “too far in” and despite the danger to national sovereignty, security, and economics, they persist. Both hope to salvage “power” from Trump and Brexit’s consequences.
We are living in dangerous times. All it will take is courage and putting country first. A second “clean” referendum will cancel Brexit. The release of the Mueller report will empower the Republican politicians to cross the aisle and end the disgusting blight on American integrity. It is a lesson that can restore and enrich our governmental processes at home and across the pond.
4
According to most of the Labour MPs who quit that party to form the Independent Group there is an even bigger reason than Brexit for their defection and that is the “anti-Semitism” rife in a party whose previous leader was Jewish and whose leading candidate for the next leader, if Corbyn falters, is also Jewish. Several members of the new Group specified their distaste for the anti-Semitism of Jeremy Corbyn who has spoken about the plight of Palestinians and even criticised the policies of the state of Israel towards its minorities. The defecting members castigated Corbyn and the Labour majority, but not one them even implied what he or she was for. And not one dared to stand in a bi-election to let their constituents vote on their defection after quiting the party through which they gained their seat.
So Ironic that the “orange card” first played by Randolph Churchill in the late 1800s continues to wreak havoc in “Great” Britain. Maybe what’s needed, instead of a revote on Brexit, is a referendum in “Northern Ireland“ as to whether it remains chained to the UK or reunites with a Ireland.
4
The beauty of this disaster is that once the rupture comes and everything falls apart, the Conservatives will be able to mount a campaign to Make Britain Great Again!
3
The English upper class trashed much of the world during Rule Britannia leaving behind a colonial legacy of chaos and conflict that haunts us today.
English imperialism gave us the Middle East tinderbox, much of wounded Africa, cynically pitted Muslims and Hindus in India, deeply alienated China with the Opium Wars, inflaming sino nationalism and an antipathy towards the West borne of British racism, aggression and betrayal of sovereign honor.
British anti-semitism validated the cynical exodus of British and European Jews to British Palestine oblivious to Arabs who lived there for a millennia. In his cave in Shaanxi, Mao kept a book by Michael Collins, the Irish guerilla leader who routed the Brits from Ireland. Both shared a hatred of English imperialists.
How ironic then for the scions of Empire made rich and royal from colonialism, to now visit their arrogance, disdain, incompetence, and upper class foppery on their own people.
New Labor under Tony Blair immolated in the Iraqi War, a British colonial legacy. The Tories seized power and imposed austerity. It was a Monty Python skit starring Cameron, May, Osborne, and BoJo, the Brit Trump. Labor cut its nose to spite its face by electing Tory-lite Corbyn leader, the best thing that's happened to the Tories ever.
In a bid to be a Great Nation again, English chauvinism opted for a "middling economy stuck in the Atlantic."
John Donne wrote "No man is an Island entire of itself...". No nation is either.
3
Mr Cohen, the “milk and honey” promise is not a recent occurrence—but an enducement made years ago—which justified Britain’s entry into the E.U. It was always a mistake—and The British knew it in their bones. They never surrendered their currency—the British Pound.
Membership into the E.U. requires signatories comply with a shared set of rules. Among them, a set of common financial guidelines and adopting the sensibilities of Brussel’s ruling class. Among those—the acceptance of (essentially) open borders. To these folks, the only thing better than nation-wide central planning—is regional, “one size fits all” central planning.
Get out, Britain. Get out as quickly and carefully as you can—and reclaim your sovereignty.
4
What a complete, total waste of time and resources by all of the countries, companies and people dragged into the outcome of this half-baked UK voter sentiment poll. Farage's Folly may yet precipitate a recession/depression.
2
Mr. Cohen:
To be clear: When it comes to substance May's "deal" is nothing but a postponement because it was strikingly obvious that a "real deal" was tecnically impossible within a 2 years period. This treaty of postponement before March 29th is the only solution to deliver "Brexit" without "cliff edge" as regular legal consequence of Art 50 after the well known Article was triggered.
The disastrous failure of Ms. May and the entire British establishment in politiics lies in concealment and disguising of this obvious situation leading to the absurd demand of MPs Ms. May should exclude any "Hard Brexit" at presence.
This is complete nonsense because the only way to avoid the automatic cliff edge of Art 50 is a deal with EU and nobody else. This means explicite consent of such deal by Parliament - this means by the MP´s. - but this is impossible due to the unability of Parliament to decide any consensual solution.
Instead of this the MP´s refuse to tackle this sticking point in their own exclusive decision-making power just by demanding Ms May guaranties by Ms May instead of deciding who is the very one person who is unable to ensure any compliance with this plea now just because this escape of MP´s from their decision-making responsability makes it impossible to avoid this clear "automatic" legal consequence in this specific situation so cat catches it´s tail.
Brexit is the greatest act of self-harm in Europe since Hitler decided to invade the Soviet Union in 1941. The UK is a laughing stock, the political parties are splintering, big companies are planning to leave, the British people are split and bitter, the peace agreement in Ireland is in jeopardy, xenophobia is bubbling to the surface among Leavers. Brexit is also harmful at the European level as old animosities papered over by the EU are re-emerging, e.g. the Gibraltar question, Anglo-Irish enmity and British disdain for Europe. The British have never understood that the EEC and EU were devised in large part to bind the Europe together and avoid the kind of wars that devastated Europe in the 20th century. Ironically Brexit will hand Europe to Germany whose power has been tempered by inclusion in the EU. Roger Cohen's column is spot on, Brexit is a catastrophic farce, led by Little Englanders and the people whose vote produced it will be among those most harmed. A possible new referendum would likely reverse it but in the process would further divide the British public.
2
The year is 2084 and Americans are facing a vote that will determine whether the nation joins the WPG, the World Government Order. It would mean giving up US sovereignty to a world capital representing 98 nations located in Beijing. I'm dead but I pray my descendants vote against joining.
You refer to a "disassembling anti-American labour leader." That would be Jeremy Corbyn who, far from being anti-American, is anti unfettered capitalism robbing the people of their rights.
Just like our Bernie Sanders he has been working his whole life to put things right.
1
at this point, (and after an hostility to the 'continent' that dates from the UK's inclusion in the EEC in the early 70s) it is best for europe that the United Kingdom (not for long) leave...
i am tired of hearing analyses of what is best for the british. these arrogant people always maintained a one foot in, one foot out attitude to the Union...to the point that they even have their own electrical plug that is unique to the british isles! good luck and good riddance - i just hope they do not drag the poor republic of ireland down with them...
3
Why on earth doesn't the Labour party get rid of Jeremy Corbyn? I don't understand it. They could thrash the Tories if they had a dynamic leader who was clear on the no Brexit front and was not an accused anti-Semite. That's what it looks like from here.
1
Brexit was and remains, at its essence, a divorce. A messy divorce with a weak, whinging spouse trying to wheedle better terms from its stronger, soon-to-be ex partner. No matter what it looks like, post divorce life will be one of reduced circumstances for the British.
In all of this Britain is fulfilling its natural destiny as a minor island off the European isthmus of the Asian continent.
4
It may not be the end of the world, but it could be the end of the UK. This utter shambles is obvious to everyone but the mindless Brexiteers. It can achieve nothing at best, economic catastrophe at worst.
It's been clear since day one there was no plan, and certainly no coherent exit strategy or other forward planning. The sheer irresponsibility of these archetypal conservatives is quite amazing. Maybe that's what happens to people who do nothing but go to meetings.
This is " muddling through" to disaster, and it has every chance of gutting even the idea of the UK. The stiff upper lip appears to have reached the brain, and fossilized it completely.
Just one very apt point to note - These actually are Thatcher's conservative "children's children". Two generations of ridiculous out of touch buffoons. Fool Britannia, and the economy will be under the waves of history soon enough.
2
It's the country of Shakespeare. Don't mind a little drama.
Cohen fails to mention the most important point of all. The largest donor to the misleading (read lying) pro Brexit group was in bed with the Russians. He was regularly meeting with the Russian ambassador. And he was allegedly promised business opportunities in Russia. Cambridge Analytica was used by these plotters and their Russian troll Facebook messengers. Does this sound familiar? Similarly suspicious is the visits by Nigel Farrage and Boris Johnson to Trump world during his campaign and after. Putin wants to break up Europe and control America. He has
achieved the latter and is on track to achieve the former with the aid of corrupt politicians, Cambridge Analytica and Facebook. Finally, it’s beyond comprehension that May would resist a second referendum when she knows full well the first was tainted by corrupt practices. A congressional election in North Carolina is being done over because of corruption. In this, the Americans can teach the British something.
221
Anyone who was even moderately literate should have known that Brexit was going to be a disaster, just as it is proving to be. So how did one of the most literate nations on earth succumb to a campaign of propaganda that was always transparently false? The same question should be raised about Trump's election, as well. Surely American voters should have always known what a liar and fraud he would be. But where would Trump be without the support of Fox News? And how could Brexit have happened without the support of Britain's right wing tabloid press? Democracies either perish or flourish on the informed decisions of their electorates. As these two recent decisions reveal, if sufficient numbers of people are misinformed by biased, powerful media outlets, the consequences can endanger democracy itself.
264
They've got Brexit and we've got Mitch McConnell. If it weren't for him we wouldn't have trump anymore.
15
Seems to me many companies would choose to stay, what with the Pound likely being worth less than half it was a few years ago and all. It'll also boost tourism.
So look on the bright side, an island nation of low-wage earners to be exploited by oligarchs and wealthy foreigners. Cottage industries of Ye Olde English theme parks and such can abound and the peons will be happy! Make the UK great again!
10
This is a giant mess that, frankly, should have been predicted, and makes it eerily similar to the Trump presidency. Populism (aka "nationalism") sounds so sweet to the romanticists and iconoclasts of a bygone time. The only solution (of all the imperfect options) is a referendum. Let the entire population have their say now that reality has set in, and with it clarity. In 2020 the US will have ours.
11
When Corbyn is summed up as "a dissembling anti-American Labour leader" then the rest is made untrustworthy.
Austerity and now this are Tory messes, brought on by a Conservative elite.
A simplistic attack on the main opponent of that Tory way of thinking serves only those Tory interests. Labour was hijacked by Blair, to become Tory-Lite. It has now been taken back, and the Tory-think of austerity and privilege is what fears that.
Brexit could be made to be anything at this point. As the man said, “Leaving and going somewhere are not the same thing.”
Corbyn knows where he wants to take Britain, and the Tories don't want to go there.
5
When asked about Brexit during his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump, policy wonk and all round deep thinker, had not heard of it. When explained, he quickly and effusively endorsed it.
Dear Brits: be very very afraid.
36
Proponents of a second referendum sound so confident that it la result would be the opposite of the first one. But how can anyone be sure of it, especially after the first one about which most people sounded as certain?
2
@J Park -- The wish makes is so in the mind that wants it so badly, and can see no other desire than its own.
2
@J Park
Exactly the same construct we heard in '16 regarding Trump: He can't win the general.
He did.
Now 'everyone' is sure he will lose in '20.
I'm terrified.
Putin must be having a knee-slapper laugh every morning over Trump and Brexit.
9
Unfortunately, if Britain stayed in the EU, the damage has been done. They will be seen as an unreliable partner who could, at any moment, cause chaos again. Distrust and skepticism would linger over the relationship for 50 years. Read an article the other day that companies and banks no longer are planning to have one city like London dominate an industry - rather, spreading it out among other cities/countries to prevent the economic punch Brexit is bringing. Even if Britain stayed, it's reputation has been shattered and businesses won't invest like they did before all this. The leavers decry their loss of power by being shackled to the EU...however, the UK clout and reputation in Europe and around the world will be even less than what it was pre-Brexit.
13
@Drew -- "They will be seen as an unreliable partner who could, at any moment, cause chaos"
They have been seen that way all along, and rightly so. Britain has never been united about and happy to be in the EU. That is one major reason it did not adopt the Euro, for example. It has always demanded special treatment, always acknowledged as reflecting that ambiguity.
5
It looks like a Parliamentary vote for deadline deferral is the most likely outcome next week, but Europe's agreement to delay might reasonably be saddled with a demand for more certainty, either
a) certainty that the UK is going to put the question to either an election or second referendum, with a binding choice for full REMAIN or the pending Article 50 agreement, or
b) certainty that there really is NO DEAL and no more idle chatter, so the delay is only for appropriate administrative preparation (that despite blabber is far from complete for either side.)
NO DEAL will be immediately followed by hard crisis talks (instead of phony Vogue poses) about the Irish border. The UK will scramble to patch up lost trade arrangements with other countries, and try to convince businesses not to UKexit.
(I think Donald Trump is ready with cargo flats of food aid and medicines to be airlifted into Heath Row, if Tory pride will only allow it.)
6
Milk and honey was never promised. Only the chance for self-determination and border control. Just this week, Euroland conceded that the gigantic London derivatives market cannot be moved, and any attempt to do so would wreck the entire Euro economy. And now the CEOs of Daimler and BMW are calling for cooler heads because they know how many high-end vehicles the British buy. The Brits still have lots of cards.
4
@c smith -- "Only the chance for self-determination and border control."
That issue was one that was used. However, Britain has been of two or more minds about the EU since the beginning, split on many issues. Concern for sovereignty and their very different legal system (the Common Law) has been a big feature too. Local privilege of local elites has also always been a factor.
Britain is like a fish flopping about on the dock, when all it needs to do is slide back into the water.
Thanks for an excellent summary article.
32
To much Democracy is not a good idea? I usually agree but in the case Brexit why complain. It's not like I'm against an eventual one world government but if it's to be run by German bankers and autocrats in Belgium I'll pass. Haven't we been having the same problem since our founding you know with centralized banks and government.
The EU has a population of 750 million. That's a Yuge economic power but given Europe's past history are you sure it won't be up to it's old economic hijinks. Besides Germans don't like sharing and think everyone else is beneath them.
1
@JoeG -- "It's not like I'm against an eventual one world government but if it's to be run by German bankers and autocrats in Belgium I'll pass."
There's the rub in world government. About 1/3 of humanity is ruled by two men, Xi and Modi or China and India. The world's biggest economy is run by Trump, and the second by Xi.
Those are the overall leaders, not of "the Free World" but of the whole world. Do you want them?
They make German bankers look good, and no, I don't like German bankers either.
That is exactly why the SciFi vision of one world government recedes into the distant future. It is in the details.
7
1. The EU is clearly not going to reopen negotiation of the WA or remove or legally negate the backstop. The best that May can hope for is no legally binding reassurances. Neither are they going to give an extension unless it's for some specific reason like a second referendum.
2. She knows this and is clearly running down the clock in the hope that MP's faced with the choice of crash out or the deal she has already negotiated (and they previously rejected by 230 votes) will panic and pass it the second time around.
3. It's impossible to predict how this will go and therefore there is a real chance Britain crashes out of the EU. The EU is prepared for this but the UK is not.
6
@John Not so fast. Just this week the Euros conceded that London must remain the central clearinghouse for trillions of Euros in derivative contracts. The threat that the City of London would be stripped of its status was a core weapon of the "remainers". Not any more.
@John
Art 50 demands a deal to avoid cliff edge and nothing else can do. At present this Deal needs the consent of all 27 member states due to the fact that this deal can only be a postponement. A real deal considering all issue needs 7-10 years.
So it's tecnically impossible to re-negotiate Ms May's draft and obtain consent to any alterations of all 27 states until March 29th. This ship has already sailed.
Revoking Art 50 or calling a new Referendum without motion of Parliament is politically impossible in this situation but Parliament is paralysed since october, so are parties These celebrated Party "micro-splits" make it even more difficult.
Right now It's May's deal or no deal. I fully agree.
In both cases UK will get the unwelcomed opportunity to cool down, watch what's going to happen in the next years and make it's mind afterwards either on the base of the May deal or of the cliff edge. Even an owner of a perfect Glass ball would be alle to predict what is going to happen in UK in the next weeks.
No time for journalist's dreams anymore.
@c smith -- Delusional, though, to imagine that this centrality will be allowed to persist. Future contracts will be written to bypass London, and serve London / Brexiteers right.
1
The Common Market was France’s and Germany’s solution to keep 2 countries that have been at war on and off for centuries from going back to war by tying their economies together. The UK was kept at arm’s length partly by De Gaulle and partly because it was not initially interested in "joining" Europe - the result of centuries of "balance of power" politics. So the UK formed EFTA to counteract the Common Market.
Eventually, the UK did join the EEC for its joint economic benefit. However, the older members were seeking a closer, more political union and the EEC became the European Union, with a democratically-elected European Parliament. But Britons have always been wary of being told what to do by foreigners, an underlying national characteristic that remained.
The original Brexiteers sold a concept of Brexit promising a land of “milk and honey" based upon lies and, purportedly, with confusion sown from Russian players. It played upon two main arguments: free movement of people and sovereignty. Older Brits longed to own sovereignty once again and a certain segment of society, mostly low-information and anti-foreigner, wanted free movement abolished. All of them ignored the economic result of any Brexit. Over 40 years Britain has established itself as the major financial center in Europe and the entire country’s economic well being depends on that and a European-wide free movement of goods and services.
A People’s Vote on May’s agreement vs remaining MUST happen.
7
Mr.Cohen, nor anyone else, has any idea what is going to happen to Britian's economy after Brexit. Nothing like this has ever been done.
2
@Gofry
Actually they have a pretty fair idea. There have been numerous studies conducted by think tanks, banks and the British government themselves. There is actually a remarkable consensus that in the event of a crash out the British economy will over a ten year period lose about 10% of GDP. It's already lost about 2% and they haven't left yet. As this article mentions the auto industry is particularly vulnerable (investment has fallen by over 80% over the last four years). The Financial Services industry is also certain to shrink with the loss of passports as are probably the aerospace and pharmaceutical industries.
12
@John
Studies are conjecture. There is no precendent. A "pretty fair idea" is by no means a certainty.
It may end up being a disaster, but nobody really knows. I wish people would all stop pretending they do.
2
@Gofry
FYI: Mr. Cohen was born in England, went to Oxford and lived in that country for many, many years. At the moment he obviously is in the UK, since the reports from London. He knows exactly what it going to happen to Britain's economy after the Brexit, as do most European leaders and journalists.
Have you ever spent some time in Europe? I seriously doubt it.
4
They used to say that the sun never sets on the British Empire. I think it is safe to say that it is finally setting.
Sad. I grew up in the UK and I'm fond of my home country. My 82 year old father still lives there and voted yes for Brexit. I love him dearly, but like Trump voters in the US he misses the "better" days when things were "British". We are unwilling to accept, both here and in the UK, that change is inevitable, that we are a global society whether we want to be or not. Commerce, education, everything is global. Unfortunately, the old white men have decided to trash the institutions and take themselves with it rather than adapt to the inevitable change. Most of them are of an age where they will not feel the impact. Wealthy or retired, or both, they just want the America or Britain they grew up in. In the US and the UK we are witnessing the last gasp of angry old white men.
156
Leavers don't want any sort of deal and Remainers don't want any sort of exit. Leavers don't believe that the consequences of a no-deal exit could be as dire as predicted, but they don't care if they are. Exit strategies put forth by both May and Corbyn are unworkable and unsaleable. The original referendum was, by and large, a Tory sham but the Tory pols will do what they can to deny voters a chance at a final say.
Make no mistake, it won't be an accident when Britain crashes out of the EU. But hey, it just assumes it's rightful place as another middling set of islands off the coast of Europe. Maginalization is part of the price each country must pay for allowing the conservatives to lea
17
If government had seen the initial referendum as an initiative to address some of the justified grumbles about the EU rather than a mandate to leave, Britain could have been in a much better and stronger position. Cameron's cowardly disappearance and May's insistence on pushing forward with a vote based on lies and engaged in by a minority of the voting public was a disaster from the beginning. If she had an ounce of courage she would admit that and scrap the whole thing.
10
A fudged Brexit (either Remain or "soft leave") will never put this issue to rest.
A disastrous leaving of the EU, and the resultant chaos and pain and blood, will put the Brexit issue finally to rest.
Sadly, Brexit will be with us for years unless the UK really suffers.
6
You'd think that the country that invented (soccer) football has been so reluctant to divide the Brexit into two halves. The Leavers were ahead by one at the end of the first half but the Remainers were by no means out of the game, at least not if the teams returned to the field for the second half vote. Instead, out of some peculiar English foible, they've gone directly to injury time... and indeed a lot of people are going to be hurt.
7
Leavers don't want any sort of deal and Remainers don't want any sort of exit. Leavers don't believe that the consequences of a no-deal exit could be as dire as predicted, but they don't care if they are. Exit strategies put forth by both May and Corbyn are unworkable and unsaleable. The original referendum was, by and large, a Tory sham but the Tory pols will do what they can to deny voters a chance at a final say.
Make no mistake, it won't be an accident when Britain crashes out of the EU. But hey, it just assumes it's place as another middling set of islands off the coast of Europe. It's all part of the price each country must pay for allowing the conservatives to lead.
8
Let me start by saying I am an Anglophile. But deep in my heart I know UK joined EU only to make sure that EU did not do anything adverse to UK’s interest. UK seriously disliked the purpose if EU to form ‘ever closer union’. As always it wished to punch above its weight. In these days of disintegration - Czech/Slovakia, Yugoslavia - the EU is refreshingly about integration. Integration does not come about from easy movement of just money and products but also people. I think it is best all around, so long as you are not in favor of people movement, to leave the Union. Let others see how far they can take this integration. May be after a hundred years UK can decide if it wishes to reenter. Until then please LEAVE.
6
I have an older relative living in Northern England. He is all for Brexit and for returning England to its previous imperial grandeur. His England has existed for decades but he still remembers his England with Churchill and victory. Honestly, I don't get it.
23
Brexit should be seen in the context of the Tory pârty which has had within it its ranks a clique of anti-EU saboteurs since the day that GB joined the Union.
It is within this party that the obsession with quitting Europe has been festeriing all these years and this unrelenting undercurrent of discontent finally drove David Cameron to agree to a referendum.
The responsibility for the utter chaos, for the immense waste of government energy and money and for the chasm that has opened up in a society already riven by austerity, must be assigned to this small group of Little Englanders who believe (with absolutely no justification whatsoever) that Britain can be great Britain once again.
21
A second referendum could result in a third. May isn't likely to get parliamentary approval for anything. This wasn't a case of self-amputation, it was a case of national suicide.
18
Stoking fear is a powerful tool for control, the world now horribly understands.
19
Sometimes you have to feel the pain before it's understood. I am sad to see Britain leave as a leading nation on the world stage. In Europe, it had clout. By itself, not so much. Britain, like the US is having a difficult time adjusting to the new world of emerging powers. Britain is leaving the scene and the US is clamoring to remain relevant in the era of trump. Two beacons of democracy in the world are being put to the test, and the results? Stay tuned.....
21
Brexit was a poll with a simple yes or no answer. It was made a legislative mandate. Despite no legal status, and despite being foisted upon voters and supported only by 35% of those registered to vote.
The USA is different. Here some 45% of voters keep in control a government run by a handful of billionaires explicitly out to do in democracy.
The main difference between Brexit and the departure of the USA from democracy is the simple clarity of the choice. “In or out”, so straightforward compared to rabble rousing, foment, division and riling up subterranean Neanderthal segments of the brain.
20
Amid all the cacophony and confusion about the Brexit debate a strong constituency that favours a second referendum that might hopefully reverse the highly manipulated first referendum outcome is also emerging and this could force the political establishment to take into reckoning this option also to avoid the Brexit nightmare. Even otherwise if Britain has hitherto pulled above its weight in the world it is all due to its being a part of the EU which might not be the same if the March 29 crash comes its way.
5
Cohen summarizes:
"Here are the odds in descending order of likelihood: An adjusted May accord secures parliamentary approval; the March 29 deadline is extended; no deal; a second referendum."
I think that Cohen's predictions show that the primary problem here is Britain's almost startlingly insular view of the rest of the world. To me it seems that Brexit is a spectacular miscalculation of the UK's odds in a critical negotiation.
Let's look at the options Cohen proposes. First, the EU has made it quite clear that it is way too late to change the "May accord" itself. In fact, that exit agreement was basically the EU's best-and-final offer after they roundly rejected the Chequers Plan that the UK proposed last fall.
Second, the UK does not have direct legal authority to "delay Brexit", other than to formally rescind its invocation of Article 50. It can vote to petition the EU to modify Article 50 to change the exit date. However, time for even that has already dwindled to days or a week at best.
Finally, I don't see how the UK's announcing that it wanted a second referendum or a change in government would have any direct effect on the current legal process or its rigid timetable.
The days when sovereign rulers could alter treaties with the stroke of a pen are over. The EU is 28 going on to 27 nations. That involves schedules and deadlines.
9
For Americans, there's a certain amount of schadenfreude to be had watching the dis-United Kingdom struggle with Brexit. It's a peculiar kind of comfort from seeing that America is not the only country with a feckless leader at the helm or parties playing on fear and ignorance to stay in power.
Decades after defeating the irrational cult of fascism - the appeals to national 'glory', that 'national identity', and dreams of recovering some mythical past over the bodies of selected scapegoat 'enemies' - Western democracies are now succumbing to its fatal allure.
Seeking easy answers to hard problems, getting angry at the wrong people and chasing the wrong ideas, the reluctance of those who have benefitted at the expense of everyone else to give up their unfair privilege... this will not end well.
More. The growing consequences of climate change absolutely require international cooperation and recognition of flaws in the current order that must be addressed if we are to avoid making a bad situation far worse.
Instead we are doing everything we can to avoid dealing with it. This will not end well.
38
@Larry Roth
When the paycheck doesn't cover it or it's not there people get irrational, their IQ's drop and they get violent.
1
Yes, as Cohen says, "The 2016 vote was manipulated through lies."
He fails to mention that the 2016 Brexit vote was also manipulated by illegal campaign funding and many of the same methods and even people / companies (Cambridge Analytica) as the illegal manipulation of the 2016 US election.
56
Brexit is messy because the EU, particularly the Germans, want it that way. They need to scare off the Italians and others from similar moves. The Germans are willing to sacrifice a significant number of their own auto-related workers to achieve this, something that is now hitting home in Hamburg if not Berlin. Losing the British market as the EU slumps into recession is a catastrophic economic error.
As for the chorus of "the Brexiteers lied", my goodness, the Remain campaign ran a fear campaign - by this time the economy already should have collapsed per the Remain propaganda.
3
The EU doesn't lose the British market, they're still across the Channel. The British market, however, will be outnumbered and therefore the EU will negotiate from a position of strength. There's no downside here, for the EU: the global economy is a game of minimum winning coalitions in a way (if you're unfamiliar think of an iterative 'Survivor' with nations instead of Joe and Jane Schmoes).
Britain voting themselves out of the most powerful negotiating Bloc in the world because they're tired of protecting French cheese and the sage grouse (or whatever) is hilarious. They had the best deal in the world, kept their own currency, had a ton of exceptions carved out, vacationed in warm places while being cared for by cheap Eastern European labor.
44
@Chris
Just because the country hasn't suffered disaster yet doesn't me it won't in the future. In 1937 Chamberlain said, "It is peace in our time". It wasn't.
Too true. To this swirling confusion is added the bogus anti-Semitism insanity. Israel moves towards a theocracy with ugly implications to the Palestinians and these British pols have sown utter stupidity.
12
When a yea vote of about 35% of the registered voters on an opinion poll with no legal status was elevated to becoming a mandate for action, despite its being posed and supported by disinformation, it was clear there was push behind it. Not from the people, but from the power brokers in the U.K. who wanted the EU out of their decision making.
That is the first and last thing. The brouhaha is a tempest in a teapot. The decision is made: get out. The rest is detail, important to the populace, but not to those who want the EU out of their way.
The yea vote on Brexit was a yea for Oligarchy, and by unprincipled Oligarchs to boot.
52
Once you announce your intention to divorce from your partner, later reconsideration or even reversal does not return your relationship to where it was before the fateful declaration.
That is certainly the view taken by many international companies in the UK, as Business Insider reports:
"The damage to the economy from Brexit is already afoot — so much so that the act of leaving the EU itself is, at this point, increasingly irrelevant.
The impact on the City of London could be especially damaging — financial services, heavily concentrated in the capital, account for 6.5% of Britain's GDP.
The winner so far has been other European banking hubs. A Frankfurt lobby group has claimed that between €750 billion to €800 billion ($911 billion) in financial assets and claims 10,000 jobs will move to the German city by the time Britain leaves the European Union on March 29.
These moves won't be undone, even if Brexit were somehow cancelled."
It's even worse than the leaving of businesses suggest. Companies that had planned on investing in the UK have changed those plans as well. And why not? What business would invest many millions into an economy whose basis and direction is unpredictable?
51
I just received my new British passport. It is still red and stamped as a European passport. I expect that when I next get it renewed the new one will still be European, or at least the UK will be in negotiations to rejoin! Either that or it will be just an English passport due to the breakup of the UK. Of course my USA passport may also be different, certainly not "great" if we keep on the current track.
3
Second referendum is all that I can think of. This is too complex an issue for my 77 year old brain to understand but what I do get is that leaving the EU will be a disaster.
20
@Jordan Davies You are so right. I'm waiting for the day when UK unemployment doubles and the population is screaming and questioning how this could have happened.
7
The important thing we should have learnt from the Trump vote and the Brexit vote is that our vote counts. Easy to blame Russian involvement, political hacks, wealthy influencers, but democracy exists still. Each individual should know now to get the facts right and make a thoughtful unemotional choice.
37
@Jo Ann Agree, but the flawed electoral college system distorts our votes in the US. We need to take the EC out of the mix as well as go back to an education system that teaches history, civics and world politics in the hope that those better choices can be recognized.
12
Is losing one's "voice, vote, and veto" so important ? Because of the quirks (one could say "undemocratic" portions) of our constitution, we in the populous areas have always been disadvantaged. However, I have always taken solace in believing that the voters in North Dakota and the people who participate in the Iowa caucus and such will exercise good judgment, and keep the interests of the entire country in mind. Alas, the last presidential election showed me the folly of such belief.
24
Brexiteers of all stripes are driven by nostalgia, an ardent yearning for a Kingdom of yore, for Camelot and Robin Hood, for Chaucer and Shakespeare. No other geopolitical entity celebrates its royal family like the United Kingdom. Anachronistic, to say the least.
Nineteenth-century England was an international colonial power; the mid-twentieth century witnessed a process of reverse colonization.
The Brexit urge, as with other nationalisms, is about immigration and national identity and is underwritten by the specter of a non-white majority anon. England wants to seal off its borders to foreigners, to alien incursion. The seeds were planted internationally in the mid-1960s with amendments to national immigration acts and the subsequent encroachment of the Global South on northern hemispheres, a state of affairs exacerbated by Middle Eastern strife.
Internationally, educated white families have fewer babies than their brown and black counterparts, a by-product of feminism and economic emancipation. Japan has insufficient numbers of workers because of low birth rates. The governments of Poland and Hungary have encouraged their native citizenry to produce more babies, Orban going so far as to declare a lifetime moratorium on income taxes for any Hungarian woman who bears four children.
Can the castle still be defended in an international arena where economic power is shifting toward East and South Asia?
8
@Chance. Add to your list that apart from banking/finance, energy and tourism the UK economy is quite weak. They will negotiate future deals with the EU from a position of weakness.
3
Do you want to join the world, or go it alone? America First vs. multilateralism over here, Brexit vs. the European Union over there? Those are the choices. Roger Cohen again states it very clearly regarding the choice for the U.K., urging a second referendum on Brexit and staying in the E.U. As another commentator summed up the situation, Brexit means “Farewell Great Britain, hello little England.” May (no pun intended) the British voters be given a second opportunity to vote before it is too late!
278
@C.L.S. What if the second referendum overturns the first?
I don’t believe the other 27 countries are ready to accept Britain back into the EU with all of its exceptions, obstructions against further integration in any and all matters and its constant dismissive discourse about “Brussels”.
Brexit is not just about Britain.
26
Perhaps the best thing England and its leaders could do is accept their fate and become the rock in the North Atlantic it was always meant to be. Let's face it England always punched above its weight class. During the industrial evolution and age of mercantilism Britain ruled the world through a combination of guile, use of the cannon and the musket and chutzpah. They were able to wall off their country from imports of finished goods and through force make their colonies accept goods made in England. They destroyed the India homespun industry. They participated in the enslavement of millions to grow products like cotton and tobacco. Their engagement in global finance and political schemes brought nothing but pain and suffering to the world. (Remember that line about "avoid all foreign entanglements, especially those European" that GW through out on his way into retirement?) So honestly England on the margin is getting what they got though a sense of entitlement that died decades ago. I feel for the poor and underclass. But let's face it, they probably helped push the vote over the top. If one is smart they use that empire passport and move to Australia, New Zealand, Canada or some other former colony. Sorry Anglophiles, that's the way I see it from here.
8
@Paul If one is smart, one knows that a UK passport doesn't get you the right to live in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, or "some other former colony."
Less than 40 percent of the eligible voting population voted for EU exit after a campaign demonstrably marred by fraud and Russian interference. But sure, let the far right swallow another country and hurt the poorest of people because, um, colonialism or something.
12
@Paul With all due respect, Paul, the weight of Britain's colonialist history should not condemn the millions in the country now who voted against Brexit, or indeed the millions of poorer voters who were pulled into the vortex by lies. You're talking about ordinary people like your family and your neighbours, not Raj-era brutes.
Should Americans as a whole and in the here and now be seen as deserving Trumpism because of Native American genocide, the Korean and Vietnam and Iraq wars, lynchings, oppression through eugenics, and other significant failings in the US historical record? No. The 'sins of the fathers' argument is, I feel, misguided.
And as for an 'empire passport' that can whisk Brits to New Zealand or Canada, that does not exist. The reality for millions on what you characterise as a 'rock' is bleak. And, perhaps unsurprisingly, the entire farrago was engineered in part by the same forces pushing Trumpism. In some sense, we're all on the Titanic together at this point; it's just that you've got Mueller manning the lifeboats.
2
Of course, implementing Brexit is beyond complicated and failing. It was an ill-conceived, ill-assembled slogan lacking in the considerations and nuances needed for a viable policy. And a motion like Brexit, based on an overly simple sentiment - foreigners are bad - was bound not to hold up as political vision.
336
@NM
"It was an ill-conceived, ill-assembled slogan lacking in the considerations and nuances needed for a viable policy."
Hmm, sound familiar?
45
"One man alone can be pretty dumb sometimes, but for real bona fide stupidity, there ain't nothin' can beat teamwork."
- Edward Abbey
It's easy to blame a few dishonest politicians for the inexplicable march into the Brexit (or Trumpian) abyss. And the politicians certainly deserve it.
But we also need to admit that it took millions of ordinary people to come together as a team to demonstrate just how much self-inflicted harm can be caused by an uninformed, credulous, and apathetic electorate.
105
@LT
Do you suppose that our form of government had something to do with it? After all Sec. Clinton won the popular vote.
2
@LT Hmm.... Somehow this sounds familiar.
1
Do we need any more indications that the further to the Right we look, the more destructive and incompetent the governance?
50
The Brexiteers should have remembered to be careful what they wished for as some day their wishes could come true. They did, and Britain will be the fair warning to the rest of the EU that, for all its faults, the EU has been a good deal for everyone.
19
I just returned from great Britain last week, and frankly I was shocked at how many people either did not want to discuss Brexit, or people said well maybe it’s not so bad if there’s a hard Brexit.
My gut feeling having spent a week there both in Blackpool and in London, is that this will be a messy and very dangerous time for Great Britain, and its relationship with both the USA and the world will never be the same. What a mess
27
Ouf, but if you asked me what I think about Trump, I might tell you that I don’t want to talk about it. Which is true. This is not to say that I don’t have an opinion about him.
6
It's really astonishing how many of the brexit voters and campaigners are still telling their lies about how it will all work out great and the EU will cave on all fronts and offer a super deal. At this point that's just delusional.
20
Einstein did express it best, when one insists in losing something... just to see how it feels once it's gone, a foolish proposition confirming that our stupidity remains in ample supply. The European Union, flaws and all, has been the longest and most successful transaction to guarantee peace. And we haven't even mentioned the mutual benefits in processing 'goods and services' so efficient and effectively. To those in the Brexit nonsense, consider having your heads examined (before it's too late).
9
Every election is won by manipulation and lies and the Brexit campaign was no different. It is insulting and patronizing to say that voters for Brexit did not have the intelligence to know what they were voting for. I would say that about every election result hat I disagreed with including the election of Trump in 2016.
1
There is no need for a vote. The majority now thinks Brexit was a mistake and Parliament can just vote to stay - although that would require a spine, something the politicians have been lacking. Britain swiped right, found out their date was a malignant fraud and decided to marry him anyway.
4
The United States and U.K. are getting the governments they deserve.
Depressing, isn’t it, to find out who we really are?
35
The Brexit fiasco which is nothing more than national suicide for Britain portends negative developments in France, too.
The largely simplistic and uneducated masses who compromise the Yellow Vest movement in France are pressuring Macron into accepting the use of the referendum to enact crucial and complicated forms of legislation. How many of us in France possess the knowledge of a holder of a public administration degree to be able to see the Big Picture during a nation-transforming referendum. THAT was Cameron's original sin : allowing the ill-informed and unqualified British electorate the 'right' to cast their country into a state of chaos and isolation out of sheer emotionalism.
Democracy is surely in decline today, none of us have the right to tell the Chinese or the Middle Easterners how to conduct their affairs in light of our own mediocrity throughout the West !
6
The very fact that Brexit appears to be so damaging to Britain illustrates what an awful and malicious institution the European Union is in its modern form.
Britain, or any other member desiring exit from the E.U., is like the wife in an abusive marriage with a rich and powerful husband. She wants to leave, but knows that it will destroy her livelihood because he will do everything to make her life miserable. "You better stay, or else!"
1
@GS Some specifics as to why the EU is awful would perhaps (?) make your case. Without specifics, it's impossible to decide.
6
if there has been an abusive partner in the uk/ continental europe partnership, i would think that it was the uk with its never ending opt-outs, special requests and constant manipulations and refusals to positively partner with and within the european union!
11
@GS fine. after leaving, perhaps the UK can re-apply...only next time, they will have to agree to use the euro, and give up sterling...just like EVERY OTHER member state did!
5
“Take Back Control” is a rich slogan, especially in view of what has become bleakly apparent since the 2016 Brexit vote. Neither the UK government nor its two major political parties has demonstrated even the faintest capacity to exercise the barest modicum of competent control.
The entire British political establishment has made an unholy mess of a smaller but stupid mess originally created gratuitously by David Cameron's ill-advised and unnecessary roll of the dice in calling for a referendum in the first place.
What now? Don't ask Theresa. Don't ask Jeremy. Don't ask Boris, Jacob or Nigel. Don't ask the Queen. They haven't the slightest clue.
15
Do they think that they still have an empire, or what? I've never understood how Brexit could be anything but a complete disaster on all fronts for the English. They don't seem to care about how a world economy functions...but they don't have anything like the money to buck it, at all. It's completely stupid.
It's going to interesting, and kind of sad.
8
I have spoken regularly with a die-hard Brexiteer, whose attitude from the very beginning was steeped in memories of Empire and Make Britain Great Again syndrome. Today, as his dis-United Kingdom goes downhill he resembles Lord Cardigan who led The Charge of the Light Brigade against well entrenched and superior Russian forces, believing that a cry of 'Tally-Ho' was all that was needed to defeat them.
There are more similarities between the two events: The Light Brigade took on a much stronger force as a result of miscommunication in the chain of command, while the Brexit project has been plagued by lies, misunderstandings and miscommunication from the outset. Britain (it's not Great anymore) is imploding under the combined weight of nationalistic hysteria and cognitive dissonance: No Brexiteer acknowledges his/her inability to have fathomed the crucial link between Idea and Execution. Brexiteers blame the E.U. and/or other politicians, but never themselves, for the internecine warfare.
So much new evidence has come to light, regarding the disadvantages of a Brexit, that the only sensible solution is a second referendum. The British public now realises, after two years of acrimonious debate, what Brexit does and doesn't mean. What it does mean is that Brexit has costs. What it doesn't mean is that Britain can simply leave under favourable terms, enjoying all the privileges while maintaining borders open only to those immigrants it wishes to embrace.
26
Why a country would vote to impoverish itself is beyond me. But, then again, we have Trump.
30
Brexit makes me understand WWI, which up until now had completely baffled me as it was both horribly destructive and totally senseless.
So why did it happen?
Alas, apparently WWI happened as Brexit is happening: people see a calamity, it's like a fast freight highballing right at us, yet we will not jump off the tracks.
This is nuts. Hold a second referendum.
27
I support the IDEAL of Britain wanting to leave the EU, an organization that allows fascists in Hungary and Poland to gain prominence while Brussels does nothing to stop it. What went wrong? Free trade with the world means that goods cannot pass freely between the UK and EU, right? Uh, WHO forgot about Northern Ireland? Remember "The Troubles"? Want to go down that lane again? Therein is the problem and I have never understood how it could have ever been ignored during the debates, it's such an obvious obstacle and guess what else? There is NO solution to it. Forget the backstop. IF there were a solution to no borders and free trade agreements that the UK wants, they'd be talking about those right now! It's a problem that cannot be solved UNLESS Ireland unifies, Northern Ireland agrees to be part of a non-Great Britain trade zone OR the UK gives up on free trade and joins a customs union with the EU. End of story.
5
@ManhattanWilliam
"the EU, an organization that allows fascists in Hungary and Poland to gain prominence while Brussels does nothing to stop it."
William
The EU is, as an organisation of sovereign states, limited in intervening in their members policy. But it's trying. The EU parliament recently voted with a huge majority against Orban's policy. The British MP's abstained.
1
Brexit appears to be more about being anti-EU than pro-UK. I hope the leadership is communicating what would be best for the UK, with or without the EU.
3
There is nothing new in the promise of milk and honey
Politicians always promise the impossible to get what they want. Remember : "If you like the doctor you have, you can keep your doctor, too. The only change you'll see are falling costs as our reforms take hold" ?
The non anticipated development is the utter failure of the UK political class to deal with the consequences of a democratic vote
But then again, in the US we are not doing much better.
3
Brexit risks further consequences that will continue to evolve for decades to come. If "No Deal" transpires, the system will be setting out upon the fast track toward breaking up the Union. With any adverse economic developments being blamed on Brexit, Scotland will eventually secure another independence referendum and the demographic inevitability of an Irish Republican majority in Northern Ireland will enable the triggering of a plebiscite as specified in the Good Friday Agreement. In five to ten years, Great Britain may just consist of England and Wales.
20
@Ozzinny
hopefully cymru (wales) will find a better way!
@Ozzinny
And then there shall rise cries of Walesistan, to leave behind Li’l England. The sins of colonialism. Partition comes home.
2
One wonders who is running the country at present. Every day in Parliament for the last two years seems increasingly to be devoted to futile Brexit discussions.
6
Yes, yes, yes. But where is the movement within Labour toward the removal of Mr Corbyn from party leadership and his replacement by a Remainer? How can a parliamentary system work when the opposition party refuses to offer opposition?
9
@Portola Good question, and one we have asked for years now. Hence, the 'defection' of a handful of Labour MPs to the Independent Group, which may at present be powerless but which at least is a statement.
I have marched in several of the pro-EU rallies in London. Aside from one attracting 700,000, the turnout was never what I'd have expected, given the millions who voted to Remain. I suspect that many Labour Remainers stayed away; certainly none of my many Labour-voting colleagues attended.
Why? Well, Momentum of course has backed Corbyn all the way until relatively recently. Many Labour voters probably believed the idea that Corbyn's prevarications and fence-sitting and voting with May were 'tactical' and strategic. There has been a lot of romancing about Corbyn's supposed moral superiority, too, for years now. So many have been slow to see that Corbyn is a weak player 'advised' by the likes of Seumas Milne, a narrow, ultra-hard-left ideologue.
5
It doesn't and millions of voters are alienated. Corbyn has cunning, having built Fortress Momentum around himself together with all his Trotsky friends from yesteryear. He's currently untouchable which is why 9 have left.
2
@Third Day Exactly
Policy wise he's their guy, he just has no leadership abilities
Above all, Brexit is a triumph for corruption. The referendum, David Cameron's sop to his own party's extremists, was pushed by other extremists - Farage, Banks and a shadowy cabal with strange global connections. Farage, of course, has now jumpstarted the oxymoronic Brexit Party as he projects onto the Tories in tirades of manufactured rage.
And meanwhile, tragically, the true depth of iniquity on the Leave side, already shown to have broken electoral law, remains largely unexplored. May and her advisers, notably Stephen Parkinson, undoubtedly know more, yet say nothing.
In the midst of all this, it is important to recall that millions of UK voters knew the cost of this insane idea when the referendum was announced, and that that is why they voted against it. Anyone who knew Britain over 40 years ago - when it was the 'sick man of Europe' - will understand the benefits EU membership has brought. Britain is 10% more prosperous overall. Yet inequity - as in the United States - has become further entrenched, seen in council cutbacks, disappearing libraries, unimproved education. So aside from the rich Tories who voted for Leave, the simmering anger of poorer Britons left them vulnerable to the lies of Gove, Johnson and Farage.
The nightmare is this: that we knew any Brexit was a catastrophe in 2016, saw that the vote was manipulated, and have been forced to watch both Tories and Labour ignore these facts and work together to diminish the country and save their own skins.
16
@AlexW
Not sure I'd agree that those who "knew Britain over 40 years ago" "understand the benefits EU membership has brought" That's the demographic of the over 60's who voted leave by a large margin. It was the young who dreamed of living in Rome, Paris or Madrid who voted remain. They're the ones who wanted to leave a land of "council cutbacks, disappearing libraries, unimproved education"
It was those who's world view and ambition don't extend much past their home town or two weeks in Benidorm (avoiding Spanish food) who voted leave. And yes, a lot of them were lied to by rich Tories who hoped to gain power (Borris, Farrage) and/or money from Brexit and who have the money to insulate themselves from its consequences.
3
@Andy It was by no means only the young who voted Remain - please don't mistake percentages for the whole. I well recall the 1970s and I have experienced the decades of transformation, and I am hardly alone. Some 40% of over-65s voted Remain - and that is not a piddling number.
In other words, those who were in their twenties in the 1970s were dreaming of living in Rome, Paris or Madrid. And often did. And voted Remain to enable the next generation to experience it - with all the other advantages of EU membership.
It's salutary to recall, too, that low levels of education were a huge factor in the Leave vote, and that is an indictment of UK inequity and a patchy-at-best educational system.
7
On March 30, they're going to wake up and adopt the immediate transition plans they've had for months. And then the months and years of renegotiating all those treaties and contracts begins -- just as it would have had May's Plan been accepted.
There will be transition problems. Be calm and carry on.
1
@Sequel
March 30th is too late.
The hard Brexit happens on March 29th at 11pm GMT.
And after the results of a second referendum are announced, what then? Maybe a third referendum just to make sure that the results of the second referendum were really the will of the people? England and Wales voted "Leave" by substantial margins. The quasi independent country of Scotland (which has its own parliament) voted solidly to remain. That little piece of The United Kingdom across the Irish Sea voted Remain but the DPU, its voting members in the UK Parliament, appear to want to leave. I'm confused and the non leadership of both Corbyn and May add to the confusion. I suspect BREXIT will happen, a mess will follow but the sky will not fall.
8
@MA Harry
This has been one of the stranger pro-brexit arguments to me, that a second vote is somehow undemocratic.
One vote to end all votes is how democracies die, not a standard feature of them. The first referendum was based on lies, and those lies are now exposed through time. It's not really possible, a few weeks out from crashing out with no deal or whimpering off with May's deal, for brexiters to maintain we'll get their magical deal with an invisible Irish border patrolled by leprechauns, presumably paid for by Mexico. They're certainly giving it a go, but a vote now would ask an honest question. Do you want to crash out, become a vassal, or just drop the whole dumb idea. Many, probably most, of the people duped first time around were voting for a fourth option that never really existed.
2
The Kyle-Wilson amendment is my personal hope for a step back from the abyss. It would get things moving again between the EU and Britain and allow people to decide what they really want. Events in the last two years have offered enough evidence for people to change their mind.
People never had a chance to vote for a particular kind of Brexit even though the difference between a soft Brexit (remaining in the Customs Union and single market) and a complete isolation from Europe is huge.
Negotiations Britain has undertaken on its own have already underscored the weakness of its international position: It has only managed trade deals with seven out of 69 countries the UK currently trades with under preferential EU free trade agreements. Treaties with partners like Canada, Japan, South Korea or Turkey have not been concluded.
10
@Damage Limitation
As long as UK tabloid will continue campaigning like 2016, as long as Ms May or any other British politician will go on fantasizing about options that don't exist, as long as PMs and (former ) members of government continue to dream in public about negotion chances strictly excluded by compulsory EU law without limits, as long as British leaders never look for consent of 27 other member states and as long as the statements of these others are not clear enough - in short: as long as it is going on the way it used to be in last years - another outcome will be anything but guaranteed. It will take 1 or 2 years for a change. An in-between "fudge deal" as it was called in the article had been no bad idea in principle just to learn what might happen If this the leave-process is going on. Hard line Brexiteers got it. All others not so much I fear.
4
@Damage Limitation
I only know of four trade deals:
Switzerland, Chile, ESA, Faroe Islands.
What are the other three?
4
Name one benefit of Brexit?
One will do, because from where I sit it's a gang of upper class toffs intent on destroying a country.
1
The madness in Brussels is just as bad. The two year deadline of article 50 is proving to be a disaster. Yet this is standard strategy for Brussels' lawyers who love using arbitrary deadlines as an excuse for brutal decisions.
Just as crazy is Brussel's insistence that a new trade treaty between is a separate process from the Brexit and that negotiations for it can only start once the Brexit is finished. People need continuity and stability - not such destabilizing discontinuities.
6
@Wim Roffel Right, isn't it frustrating to deal with a for-once united EU? The UK put themselves in this situation and the EU is not going to make it easy for them.
16
It is indeed chaos Win, but signing A50 set in motion the precedent that other Trade Agreements cannot be pursued while UK is still an EU Member state. The lies here from top politicians said otherwise. Very few here in UK realise( or care to realise ), that the EU CANADA, and EU JAPAN deals have clauses preventing Canada and Japan from entering new trade deals unless approved by EU. Scotland... we voted 62% Remain.... great frustration and unhappiness here.
25
Great despair and unhappiness here in Liverpool too. This failure by the political elite will not be forgotten. Long term Brexit will never prevail because it's bonkers.
If May refuses a people's vote, our nation will break up and all outcomes will be negative. She meanwhile will be retired to some plot with rich hubby. Let's hope there is a full inquiry into all their conduct.
2
A second referendum is the only option that makes sense for the following reasons:
1. A referendum was promised by Cameron AFTER his negotiations with EU.
2. There is now a clearer idea of what a Brexit entails.
3. No one knows how to come up with an exit acceptable to even a majority.
4. No party loses face by putting the decision on voters.
5. This destructive indecision is damaging British economy.
6. Everyone is tired of witnessing British fumbling.
27
@Frank Casa
It's too late for that now.
A referendum takes about 5.5 month in the UK.
In May are EU elections. Nothing will be postponed pasted these elections.
3
Perhaps the reasons for Brexit are not quite grasped if just being understood in economical terms. One other reason might be the feeling that you're not being heard, or even liked, by the people (or class) in charge.
Actually laughing (ha-ha) that a factory in Swindon has closed and 3500 jobs are lost, might indicate that the author of this article does not consider this a possibility.
1
@Vidar the laughter was clearly meant to signify amusement at the absurdity of the claim that the closure was unrelated to Brexit, not any amusement about the closure itself or its impact on workers.
20
@Vidar You are right, in the same sense that a great many people in the US voted for Trump simply because they felt they weren't being listened to. The Northerens in the UK voted leave because they felt ignored by London, and wanted 'to teach them a lesson'.
2
@John Hall There's a phrase about precisely that, namely "cutting off one's nose to spite one's face".
3
It'll be interesting, in the age of social media, to watch the people who caused Brexit try to crawl away from their complicity. After all, every editorial comment they ever made is preserved forever in a searchable digital universe. And yet I'm sure people will run away from this dumpster fire and swear they didn't have anything to do with it. People hold political leaders accountable for social foibles (somewhat inconsistently, it's true), but policy failures don't seem to get the same intense attention from the citizens directly affected by those same failures. More than a few of our grandchildren will be busy, busy historians!
15
Hitting nail on head Steve, six months from now you’ll be lucky to find a Brexiteer... that’s England for you!! We have a 62% Remain vote here in Scotland, NI voted 56% Remain, looking forward to seeing the unfortunate acronym FUKNEW.... Former United Kingdom now England and Wales.
3
As if they care.
Do you remember David Cameron whistling a little ditty as he walked away from the podium after announcing his resignation the day after the Brexit vote?
“Right! There, I’ve made a mess of everything, but I’m off to my home in the country for some chillaxing.”
3
@Steve B. I fully expect Rees-Mogg, Johnson and Gove to settle on the Continent and watch Britain burn, in a final macabre twist. They behave with impunity in an ethics-free zone, I'm afraid.
2
We all hope the fever of illusions will break, but lasting will be the headache of Britain's imperial hangover and the resultant sense of exceptionalism that feeds the feverish illusions, a vicious circle of sorts.
England is leading the UK to row against prevailing wind and current, yes both, as there is little space for the neo-liberal / libertarian strain of "anglospheric" ideology in Europe today, as most Brittons would readily agree if they could shed their neo-imperialist chimera, but that requires an existential path still untrodden.
As well, likely sooner than later, excepting for the few profiteers in the financial-capitalism world bent on destroying capitalism with its legoland games, England will cut off its nose in spite as it promises to go make deals around the world to only then realize it doesn't have a market for them with reduced competitive access to what was its main export market ... then consider the time to make the deals (counted in years, Rees-Moog's own words of 30) will have rendered the UK so much poorer that it way take no advantage of these.
7
Let's consider the number 80: 80 is the number of ERG MPs "The party within a party'disruptors; 80 is probably the average age of Tory party members; 80x £10bn is the exodus of financial assets from London in just January alone.
Over 500 MPs in our parliament have been in Pontius Pilate mode, sat on their hands or colluded with the delusionals. Its not just Brexit bunkum that we need to rid ourselves of. It starts with the number 80; 80 contemptuous second jobbers who do not deserve being called representatives. Frankly, I wouldn't entrust them to clean my car and most definitely never in charge of our food supply, as we are seeing.
5
@seanseamour your views are completely out of date and very far from the reality of thought in the UK. And your jibes against the English are a bit rich from someone living in France at any time in its history but particularly just now. The EU is not a competitive market, quite the opposite.
The opinions expressed are mostly in a similar vein. There are many more aspects to consider that your readers don't appear to be aware of. Number 1, currently the UK is the 2nd largest net contributor. 2 Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece are all in financial difficulties because of the EU and its fiscal controls of Eurozone members. 3 The EU is controlled by the Commission with Germany in the background. 4 The UK economy is stronger than most EU members economies. 5 The Commission, which totally controls the EU, has a federal agenda to create a united states of Europe.
For the record I voted remain but if there is a 2nd referendum I will probably, like many others vote leave. I have been appalled by the way the UK is being treated by the EU Commission. Its the EU that is frightened by the the UK withdrawal and the implications for EU exports to the UK and budget contributions from the UK. Yes Britain had an empire, its interesting though that most of the old empire with some new additions now form the Commonwealth with the Queen at its head. The UK and all its parts is a dynamic and industrious entity that can and will continue to prosper outside the EU. And our food both in London and the provinces is by and large very good.
10
Britain had an Empire and there is now a commonwealth with the queen at its head. What is the relevance of this to Brexit? First not all former colonies are members. Ireland left the commonwealth 70 years ago. Second, there is no economic or trading framework in place or likely to be created between members. Are India and Canada pushing for such? Finally, in a campaign based on restricting immigration, is there any support in the UK to open immigration to large population centers like India and Nigeria etc. Seems to me that this is another example of Brexit exceptionalism and indeed exactly why the article is right.
19
@Roger Waterfall
If you think that the UK is poorly treated by the EU, wait until, on its own, the UK negociates with other superpowers such as China, the US (count on Trump: he is so pro-Brexit...) or India.
And as for a reminder, it’s the country leaders who approve or not the Brexit deal, not the EU commission not the European parlement.
16
@Roger Waterfall The Brexit madness is 100% the doing of the UK, don't try to blame it on the EU. I don't know exactly what you read for your news, but the EU is clearly not frightened by the UK leaving. They certainly didn't blink one iota when negotiating with Theresa May. If you read the executive summary of the Brexit accord, you will realise that the UK now has three bad options. From bad to worse to terrible: 1- pull the plug on the Brexit unilaterally ; 2- accept the deal with the backstop and the loss of sovereignty ; 3- hard Brexit. Clearly they will choose 1 and probably organise a second referendum. Equivalently they can ask for a delay. You can vote leave if you want, there is a clear majority for remain in the UK right now. Hopefully UK citizen will be a bit more clear-headed the second time around.
15
In February 2016, the EU put in motion plans to restrict tax avoidence for EU member states, to be effective April 1st, 2019. That is the first working day after the UK is scheduled to leave the EU. Is it any wonder that PM Theresa May hurried to set the Brexit ball rolling on March 29th 2017, so that exactly two years later the UK would be exempt from the EU strictures on such tax avoidance (think: Panama Papers, etc). All of the most ardent Brexiteers in Parliament (Rees-Mogg, Johnson, Fox, Davis, Redwood) are participants in tax avoidance schemes that protect their (mostly inherited) wealth.
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@Walter
HA, add in that London is notorious and well know launderer of russian money
5
@Walter -- Thank you. FINALLY a comment that pulls the perfumed hankerchiefs away from our faces, that lets us experience the full sour stench of what one finds when following the money.
10
it is terrifying how much of the world has begun to dismiss factual reality in favor of the slogans and nonsense, that are the veneer that demagogue everywhere are using to get and retain power. Emotions and private bigotry, fear of the changes that are inevitable as the old patterns end with advances in technology constantly at work. The idea of freedom and equality for all peoples is out of fashion, fear rules. As Brexit is demonstrating, our politics are incapable in the face of these disasters, the players stick to self interest, unable to take the obvious action that can reverse tragedy.
19
This is Britain’s last chance to escape Big Brussels ever tightening orbit. If it misses this chance one day it will be in the same predicament Taiwan is in with Big Beijing today.
7
Yes ships will not be able to travel off the coast of Europe and the UK will be described as a renegade province. This is beyond silly.
5
After Brexit the UK will be forced to kowtow to Big Beijing for a trade deal. China, as the more powerful party will name its terms and Britain will sign. After that, more grovelling in Washington DC, New Delhi, Tokyo and inevitably Brussels. Meanwhile Moldova, amongst others, is threatening to block Britain's entry to important WTO accords. 'Big Chisinau' will have its say on Britain's future prosperity. The UK's appeasement of Saudi Arabia for years - grubby arms sales and sending princes in return for silence on human rights, this is the template for the future. So much winning that you'll be sick of winning?
Big Brussels, where the UK has a powerful voice, will seem like a dream after that.
6
@God if it misses this “chance” it might be able to remain an influential member of the worlds largest trading bloc.
3
Given that leave voters far outnumber the population of Northern Ireland, I think the majority side will push for residents there to choose between going over to the Republic of Ireland or moving to some other UK governed land. The would eliminate any need for a backstop.
Or there will be a second referendum. Place your bets. I'm going with door #2.
@Spence. Yes. Years ago, during the Troubles, there was a proposal to unite Northern Ireland with the Republic with one year’s notice (give it back to them, in effect). Those who disagreed, mostly the Protestants, would be given assistance to migrate to the mainland. Their skills and U.K. loyalties would have been an asset. A million additional culturally similar residents in hindsight would have been no problem, given the scale and type of immigration to Britain in later years.
1
@David Hilditch -- And the leap in need for bowler hats! The Worshipful Company of Haberdashers pulled every lever it could reach, but to no avail...
Don't please resurrect that possibility. We do not want the DUP clan with their demands, inflexibility and silly King Billy marches.
1
All the media handwringing over Brexit reminds me of Y2K. Does anybody still remember Y2K? That was the day all the world's computers were sure to crash bringing civilization to and end. In case you forgot: it didn't happen. So what will happen after Brexit? Everybody will hold their breath, nothing much will happen, people will exhale, there'll probably be a big stock market rally. Life will go on--there will always be an England.
5
@Ronald B. Duke - There is a very good reason that it did not happen. Thousands of skilled engineers spent countless hours day and night trawling thru computer code to find and fix potential problems. I know, I was one of them.
68
@Ronald B. Duke If reasonable politics mean that a country will continue to exist in some physical form or another, whats the use in voting anymore?
5
@Ronald B. Duke Five years of intensive preparations are the only reason a Y2K disaster was avoided.
Arguably the changes that will be wrought by Brexit are even more consequential than the date error was likely to have been. Systems will not merely need to be debugged, but entirely replaced in many cases.
Britain has had two years to prepare for Brexit, has squandered it and remains wholly unprepared.
18
Dear British friends, having followed your discussions on Brexit for over two years, as you approach your exit from the European Union project, I find myself torn between two feelings as a European citizen as I see myself. The first is a disappointment at your choice to leave. Your Prime Minister, Mrs May, said that Britain is leaving the European Union but not Europe. But to which Europe does she refer? To that of the past where to pass from one country to another you needed a passport, you had to change currency, pay duty on what you carried with you was also a gift for your friends? That's not my Europe. My Europe is first of all a common home with a common culture and a common feeling, which draws life from shared roots and values; then comes the economy. The other feeling is one of relief. Sometimes I wonder where we would be as Europeans now if the British rulers had been proactive towards the European Union project in all these years of accession given the weight of your nation. Much further ahead and much stronger, I am sure. So, if you leave, I think we Europeans can put the pieces back together and move on without being vetoed or blackmailed. Because, you see, Europe is not just a geographical expression. It's something much deeper. Best regards from Padua (stil
60
@Flavius
Dear Italian friend sometimes I wonder how well Europe would do if only Italians were more proactive Europeans..
1
OK. Rather than invective how about some facts. Britain joined the EC (as it was) in 1973. Margaret Thatrcher became PM in 1979.
Secondly, drawing a connection between May’s deal and what’s as said in a plebiscite campaign 2 years ago is just daft. As how ergo propter hoc is not valid reasoning.
Thirdly, would Mr Cohen like the US to join the EU? I thought not.
Fourthly, the US now is most definitely not the EC of 1973.
Fifthly, there is solid evidence that the main cause of the UK’s all too localised economic success is Thatcher’s market based reforms, not the massive trade deficit with the rest of the EU. Compare France and Germany and ask why one is broke.
Finally, if the EU is the answer, what is the question? It must be pretty dark.
2
@Martin Scott The question is the one about war or peace. Just look at the history of Europe in the last 1.000 years.
19
@Mark B well said. The EU member states have had 70 years of peace, the longest period of continuous peace between them and their predecessors since the end of Pax Romana over 18 centuries ago. It has been the most successful peace project in history.
32
@Martin Scott
I would be thrilled if the US could join the EU. In the face of growing tyranny and lawlessness among the "leaders" of the US, the EU is a constant voice of humanism and sanity.
17
To all my British friends --- Throw out Brexit. Remain!
31
@David B. Benson
To all our American friends — throw out what’s left of the American Revolution and beg for forgiveness for ever leaving.
PM Thatcher had good economic reasons to ask to join the union, the very same reasons still exist today. Nothing has changed and everyone could see it.
13
I still cannot fathom why no investigation has been conducted into foreign influence on the Brexit vote, which so nicely presaged Trump's election. Was kompromat, financial inducements, and/or manipulation of social media used to drive a stake through the heart of the EU, thus achieving a key objective for a certain foreign autocrat? The fact that Facebook concluded there was no such interference using its platform is all the more reason to investigate.
118
I cannot fathom it either. May and co. have sat on it can be the only reason. An inconvenient truth they don't want to tackle.
25
@Third Day
That’s exactly it. Questions have been asked in Parliament, yet nothing happens. I think a big inquiry would shine a light on certain skeletons the govt don’t want revealed, such as the links between certain loyal MPs and offshore money of unknown provenance, or of their links to people closely associated with foreign governments or intelligence agencies. To May and her tribe, it is always party before country.
20
Maybe that's because the British are not as paranoid as Americans.
Other than the financial industry which is very portable, I am curious to know exactly what Britain offers the European Union. Looking for a serious answer.
6
@runaway it’s a large market for its goods, security intelligence, poses a counterbalance for the federalist tendencies of France.
Most other aspects are symbiotic.
The biggest issue is that the Brexit is a symptom of an EU wide disaffection with EU bureaucracy, so far the EU has ignored the cause.
The EU is sleepwalking into oblivion.
8
@Johnny The biggest problem of the EU is that national politicians claim all positive things for themselves and blame everything negative on the "bureaucracy in Brussels". Works all the time.
37
@Mark
Yep, they’ve been doing it for years. Any success is down to government, any failure or problem is Brussels. Watching the UK govt find a new scapegoat for their own failures will be interesting. I fear it will be immigrants (tried and tested by Tories) or Remain voters. It’s already starting, I think.
8
>The 2016 vote was manipulated through lies.<
Please. A majority of Brits voted to keep foreigners out of the country and prevent foreign politicians from influencing British policy. It was also a vote against London.
As long as people have jobs, economics does not matter, either in Britain or anywhere else. Philosophy and psychology rule. It’s amazing that liberal intellectuals can never seem to accept this reality.
7
@kbaa: I agree. That’s why we need more economic depressions, to remind people where they really live.
15
The lies made the difference between cutting to get rid of the foreigners but with an economic disaster, and getting rid of the foreigners and with all that milk and honey.
The lies made it ok to vote to leave as everything would be wonderful
1
@kbaa Agreed to a point, but the "out-of-control" immigration into the UK is vastly overblown. To the contrary, the UK vastly benefited from this immigration. Close the spigot and see what happens: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrants-in-the-uk-an-overview/
1
During 46 years UK was reluctant to choose between been an island or being really part of EU. They were a pain in the .. for other european nations,. Tories are still stuck with an old illusion : Great Britain with its imperial possesions. Europeans does'nt want anymore wavering, within 28 days they'l be out of Europe. Good bye!
64
The real effect of Brexit - wether in the end consumed or not - is to show the UK as the emperor without clothes. The damage to Britains considerable soft power has already been done and will be impossible to reverse. In the long run, this will be more detrimental to the UK than any supply-chain disruptions.
33
@Chris Yes, I think that's an astute observation.
Britain always assumed its status in the EU - and the world at large - was 'special' and called for sweetheart deals within the EU on many fronts on that account.
It's ironic that Britain's longstanding image of its own 'specialness' is so plainly at odds with the disarray, arrogance, cluelessness and staggering ineptitude that have been international "exhibit 1" for the past three years or so.
8
Rupert Murdoch used his media to promote both Brexit, and Trump as President. Neither will benefit the majority of citizens, in their respective countries.
For many years Conservatives could blame any negative local issue, on Britain's membership in the EU. We know Brexit will result in a poorer Britain forever, when compared to remaining in the EU.
There is no good economic or social dividend, from leaving the EU. Scotland wants to remain in the EU, while the Irish border with Northern Ireland still presents challenges for Britain and the EU.
When slogans and appeals to some previous mythical state of milk and honey, replace informed debate, results like Brexit, show us millions can vote against their own best interests.
What happens when leavers realise they have been conned, and the promised benefits of Brexit never materialise?
64
@Barry of Nambucca
No one will notice. The True Believers will blame something else. The Remainers will have no control.
27
The British electorate are not well informed and many are poorly educated. Cameron thought that his project fear about leaving the E.U. would be enough but voters who had the most to lose with Brexit (think Sunderland and Swindon) voted to leave and are now bearing the consequences. In two and a half years since the vote, the British political class are still unable to deal with the real trade offs and decisions that exist. Do you want to create a barrier with your nearest trade partners or not. Quite pathetic.
7
People are already blaming Remain voters for “not believing in Britain”.
6
Britain was a small country that dominated the globe for a couple of hundred years by the strength of its navy and the rule of law. They harvested wealth and commodities from every land they touched and claimed then all in the name of the Empire. Once the rest of the world caught up, and there was no one left to exploit. the little island needed the partnership of the rest of western Europe to make them relevant by being the english speaking gateway for money and products from the US and others. Without any of this, they are 60 million odd people with little to offer the rest of the world. RIP Britannia.
111
@E Campbell,
I think this is exactly where you're most wrong. The Brits will somehow manage to pull this off (muddle through) and show themselves to be more important to the rest of us then we or they thought (good old Brits; dependable.)
You're right about one thing, though. They ARE a little "odd". Must be the language.
5
@E Campbell
You forgot at least one very, very important factor: the industrial revolution made Britain supernally wealthy until other countries caught up.
27
@Thomas Zaslavsky
It indeed made some very rich but the miners and weavers all suffered and lost rights, with the end of craft and the industrialization of labor. Unhealthy environments and children put to work were common with poverty seen as guilt.
Masses of people lived in squalor, suffered from disease, and died young. Being a rich nations doesn't automatically mean good lives for their people. The general welfare matters.
30
"In other words, things remain as they are except that Britain loses “its voice, its vote and its veto,” in Gyimah’s phrase, as it embarks retrospectively on negotiating what its on-time exit from the union actually means>
It seems to me, and has ever since the first Brexit referendum fiasco, that Britain deserves a second. At the very least, the people now have a very clear idea of the grim future facing them, the difficulty of getting details resolved, and how it affects all political persuasions.
If the first referendum was built on false promises and patent lies, then the people were stiffed by the Brexiters. For the good of the country, May should throw up her hands and prepare a second referendum.
Anything else, and all the rest is trying to fit a very square Brexit peg into a very round EU hole.
54
The Brexiteers sold Brexut claiming that Little England could have its cake and eat it too. The EU has graciously allowed the UK to back-out of Brexit to the last moment, without striking all special deals the Brits presently have. If Brexit goes through, as others have said, if in 15 years they try to rejoin, they will not have those special terms, e.g, no Euros, no Schengen, no rebates and no opt-outs of social requirements.
The best deal is what they have. If only Brexiteers would see that.
172
Deal or no deal, no matter what Parliament does, it will be a "dog's Brexit" - a disaster that will damage Britain for decades.
There is no good solution except to ask the voters to reconfirm if they want to do this, or if, after learning what it really means, the majority would prefer to remain.
Similarly, there is no good solution to the Trump administration that will come from Congress - impeachment will not pass, and will not heal the US. Mueller will not indict. The only thing is to depend on the voters to resoundingly turn him out of office, when he can be indicted and imprisoned.
63
@Election Inspector
Trump can be indicted any time the "justice system" wants to. There's no guarantee his being out of office will make a difference.
8
The idea that a “people’s vote” would right all wrongs and fix the entire order is the exact same idealistic flowery language that got these hardliners elected in the first place. First, there is no guarantee that the slim majority favoring stay would show up at the polls. Obviously we all know what happened last time, and there has been almost 0 movement within parliament to prosecute offenders and fix the corruption. Secondly, no one would have any idea what they were voting on. It’s making an unbelievable assumption that anyone has read the thousand pages of Chequers, much less that they understand them. Third, this vote is a sham. Almost every referendum of consequence in the history of the UK has required a supermajority, and it was only not required for Brexit on the promise that the Brexit referendum was non binding (yet another example of the useless Cameron administration ruining the lives of millions for no reason). This was a legally no binding result. Nonbinding. None. They haven’t had to do any of this. All they had to say was that it was too close and the status quo would remain.
Putting it to a people’s vote would be an unmitigated disaster even more divisive and confusing than the 2016 vote. The labor party must take strong command of the situation and introduce legislation, over and over, requiring a return to the status quo in the event of no deal on the basis of the points described above. Someone needs to take charge. It’s time to end this.
37
@Shawn
MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson are proposing that Parliament vote through May's deal as it currently stands with the proviso that a referendum be held giving the public the choice between confirming the deal reached, or revoking article 50 and remaining in the EU.
I think there is a strong argument that that this would resolve the issue.
In the UK Parliamentary system the government (which is the PM and her cabinet) sets the agenda. Parliament will have the opportunity to seize control if it votes for the "Cooper amendment" to the next bill on brexit scheduled by the government. This amendment requires the PM to seek an extension to the art 50 period. This would allow time for all this to take place.
Well, we'll see.
14
Read my original comment. I lay out pretty specific reasons why such an action would cause more harm than good. Holding a large portion of your society hostage through meaningless referendum votes that can easily be highjacked by unscrupulous and malevolent forces is something that shouldn’t be supported. This referendum was non-binding, and under any previous circumstance would not be considered actionable. Labor can take advantage of this not by calling for another confusing and useless vote, but for standing up for what everyone has known all along. Brexit was a mistake, it never had to happen, and a difference of 4% of a pitifully small number of voters should not dictate the future of the country for the next century.
By taking a decisive and bold stand, labor could set itself apart from all others to offer a clear and concise path to righting the ship. A referendum would simply muddle the waters and provide the fringe a chance to spread their divisive and false narrative even farther.
13
@Shawn
“Almost every referendum of consequence in the history of the UK has required a supermajority” ?
Since when? Scottish independence didn’t (55%), Welsh Assembly didn’t (even narrower). Scottish devolution got a supermajority but, like Welsh, would have passed woth less. Alternative Vote didn’t. That’s every referendum in my adult lifetime. As far as I can see from a quick google, the earlier referendums to join and stay in the EU didn’t need a supermajority either.
Which referendums are you talking about?
4
What with Russian meddling in their elections and a populace not comprehending the full consequences of exiting the EU, Cohen is correct in saying that the country now sober can learn from their premature withdrawal to have a second people’s vote.
16
It is important to understand what drove Brexit
When the EU was enlarged to include Poland (wages 1/4 of France), Bulgaria (even lower) , Romania (yet lower) factories closed in high wage EU countries (UK, France) and moved East. A famous case study is that of the Whirlpool factory in Amiens , (labour cost Euro 35) moving to Poland (Euro 7.80) that nearly derailed the campaign of Mr. Macron.
That is, wages movedl to the EU average. That is they fell (in real term) in high wage countries and rose in low wage countries. Welcome in Poland (that however turned less democratic) and it was not welcome by the working population in Western Europe.
Concurrently, under the EU policy of free movement, Polish plumbers willing to work for less , moved to London, putting British plumbers out of work. This was welcome by the British elite, that now could their plumbing in their Victorian Townhouse repaired cheaper and promptly, but not by
British plumbers.
Eventually, the lower middle class revolted (as we see in France with the gillets jaunes, and in the US with Trump voters)
But the fault lies not with the lower middle class. The fault lies with the educated elite that should have foreseen the political consequences and installed a system of transfer payments from the elites (winners) to workers that lost good jobs)
That a) would have helped UK workers and farmers, and b) would have lessened the increasing inequality that, lies at the bottom of all
209
@Woof
After a number of years of stagnation, wage growth in the U.K. is now moving positively upwards. At the same time, migration inwards from the EU is falling. Coincidence?
7
@Woof
"The fault lies with the educated elite that should have foreseen the political consequences and installed a system of transfer payments from the elites (winners) to workers that lost good jobs)"
I think this hits the nail on the head. Immigration is actually a net benefit to the economy, but the government is obliged to support those workers who lose out due to changes in the economy, and to properly fund training and education.
One reason for brexit (there are many) was this failure.
61
@Woof Your comment is so obviously true, but we don't usually hear this view. When the EU included countries with much lower wages it significantly hurt the populace of existing EU countries. It was a negative development for most EU residents
I don't know the history of how the enlargement happened but agree that rich europeans were the beneficiaries.
33
Brexit will happen because politicians do not want to admit they screwed up royally. They rather see a Little Britain than blush and face the fact that the simplest solution is to can it. Little Britain will survive this, like it survived WWII, but can kiss away past glories and any influence over world affairs.
47
"A country that has benefited from its 46-year participation in a union of more than a half-billion Europeans..."
Things going well so easily overlooked, no matter how epic. Thank you, Mr. Cohen, for noticing and developing an adequate language for this, reaching, sadly, most likely, only an inadequate number of minds.
But, we have to start somewhere. If only for the record.
32
As some commenters have rightly pointed out, this does not need to be overdone. In 1945 Germany and Japan were in ruins. 20 years later they were doing fine. Brexit is not remotely as bad as a major war. If Britain is well-governed (admittedly not quite a sure thing) it will do ok, Brexit or no.
11
This is a false hope.
West Germany’s post-1945 infrastructure was rebuilt by American loans, repayments for which crippled the economy - until the debt was entirely forgiven in the 50s, leading directly to the ‘economic miracle’ of German post war prosperity. Similarly, Japan was occupied and rebuilt with American money under reconstruction 1945-52.
Who is going to lend Britain billions of pounds to help it compete post-Brexit?
The only part of your analogy I would keep is the image of ‘post-war’ - because my country is at war with itself, not Europe.
18
@r a
Germany and Japan were rebuilt by the US and germany also recieved huge debt forgiveness from the rest of europe
Nobody outside of england is going to rebuild post brexit uk and nobody will give debt forgiveness to the UK after brexit.
Your analogy is apples and oranges.
2
@r a Fallacy of the broken window. Without WWII, Germany and the rest of Europe would have done far better. Think of the 50 million deaths.
4
One overlooked consequence not covered by the nytimes or bbc is the impact of Brexit on the Caribbean island territories associated with the UK and EU. These are the dependent UK territories such as Anguilla, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Montserrat, and Turks and Caicos Islands. For the France there are St. Barthelemy and the Collectivity of St. Martin. Not to forget the Netherlands' Aruba, Curacao, and Sint Maarten.
12
@Tulafale
They should petition to become US territories
The channel islands should petition to become part of France and thus remain in the EU
Does anyone doubt that Argentina won't try to retake the Falklands again?
3
"The bottom line is simple: Brexit has been, is and will be a disaster for Britain. "
Simple enough.
51
Dear Roger
I like you column. Alas Brexit, is not as crazy as it seems
In his last edition, The Economist discussed, under the title, "The New Europeans" immigration, in particular Indian immigration. In the second to last paragraph you can read
" new flows of Indian migrants will probably continue to grow. It will still be cheaper for firms to import a rotating cast of IT contractors rather than train the native population. "
The native population is not amused - certainly not those who study Information Technology
12
@Woof -- The "curry cook" argument that persuaded many Britons of family origin in the subcontinent to vote for Brexit: Ban workers from Europe, and they'll have to bring in Cousin Achmad from the Punjab, who otherwise never would have a haze of a hope of immigration to the UK. *** Well, all right, as long as they're sent home after they've written enough lines of code.
1
"Here are the odds in descending order of likelihood: An adjusted May accord secures parliamentary approval; the March 29 deadline is extended; no deal; a second referendum"
May's chances of getting the withdrawal agreement opened up so the Irish border backstop can be renegotiated are slim and none. The EU has said repeatedly that the withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation.
So I think the most likely event is that Parliament will grab the wheel away from May and direct her to seek an extension if no deal is passed.
If the EU will not grant the extension, who knows? Visibility through the fog does not extend that far.
15
Britain cannot just go back and assume its role as obstructionist in the EU, blocking any attempt for further integration, like a EU defense force. They cannot simply go back and expect the infamous Thatcher rebate to continue. They can’t expect to continue trading and clearing trillions of euros outside the Eurozone after this.
Think about it... the relationship and trust is broken.
The best way forward now is a Norway scenario which mitigates damage, and maybe in 10 years re-entry might be an option. It will allow some of Britain’s own trade deals and opt outs, enough to save face.
11
@Liz -- But Britain has been offered ALL that she now enjoys, if she simply repudiates her invocation of Article 50.
2
@Liz -- At this point, the UK has not left. If it decided to stop Brexit unilaterally before 29 March, which the EU has agreed to, it would keep its current advantages. If it does leave, it will later have to reapply to join under the same conditions as other new members: no rebate, join the Eurozone, etc.
It would help in future, though, if it stopped electing anti-EU MEP's like Farage to represent it and chose representative who actually contributed to EU governance.
5
After Britain crashes out, I wonder when Scotland says it is leaving the UK to rejoin the EU?
It probably is just a matter of time. I know that is what I would do as a Scot.
72
@S Anderson but might be complex as Scotland would probably have to apply to the EU if the UK has left.
5
@S Anderson I agree. I very much doubt that the UK as we now know it still exists in ten years' time.
21
@K Swain
And the EU would answer, quickly, in the affirmative
1
At this point, I think the cost of the UK staying in the EU is greater than the cost of it crashing out, at least to the EU. The UK has never considered itself part of Europe, and never will. At the best of times it was a reluctant member of the union. After the vote to leave and a failed effort to resolve an equitable separation, the UK would be an serious infection in the EU political system. So, for the sake of the EU, I think it is time for the UK to be shown the door, deal or no deal. As devastating as it will be for the UK, I really believe it is the best option for the EU.
44
@Scott Nolde I would not be so negative. If the UK decides to stay after all, hopefully they will complain a little less in Brussels.
7
This is the best analysis of a totally bizarre situation that I have yet ti see. The country that survives the immense death toll from WWI and the destruction of WWII is out to destroy itself. Those who think all will be well are delusional, as they will soon begin to discover.
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Not exactly. The UK suffered less overall death and destruction in the world wars than the countries in mainland Europe where the battles were fought. That fact might explain why Brits don’t value the EU, as they don’t really understand the horrific events that led to its creation.
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A lot of the same social dynamics going on in England as in the United States, and again Russian interference as in America that has proven pivotal in the direction both countries are headed and most of the previous world order. Oh, there will be winners, corporations that sell their souls for profits, and those countries using social media to disrupt our country and attack our government and businesses. Russia comes first to mind. Sadly, as it is becoming more and more evident a lot of Russian money found its way into republican hands, and guessing a few democratic hands too. Often through lobbyist like the NRA. No doubt there are a few MPs and businesses with Russian money influence in Great Britain. Worst, of course, many of us believe our president has been compromised by Russia.
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If Nigel and Boris were corporate execs selling stock in an initial public offering in the UK or here, and made the kind of intentional material misstatements of fact to induce investors to purchase that they made to sell the British electorate on Brexit, they would both be in jail now for securities fraud.
There should be a new vote with the facts of the sequelae of Brexit clearly presented, not the fraudulent fantasy the pro Brexiters spun to win the election.
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@winthropo muchacho
In days of yore, the heads of Boris and Nigel would have been left to rot on Tower pikes. Such was the fate of traitors in the good old days.
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"impetigo would be cured" oh wow - why didn't someone say this sooner...???
Roger - love your work - but don't get yourself too worried. After we drift over the edge of March 29th (or whenever) we'll be OK. Sure, we'll be poorer than we might have been, our politics more fractured, our politicians - if it's believable - even more useless, our future slightly less assertive, less, ummmm, hubristic maybe?
But, my guess is, we'll be OK and in 10 years time hopefully people will be saying "I don't know why we got so worked up."
It's true, as you say: "the 2016 vote was manipulated through lies" but the lies were absurd and about of equal weight on both sides. The splendid Sam Gyimah is also quite right that “nobody agrees on where we should go." [It's clearly not true, BTW, that the Honda decision to close the Swindon plant was caused by BREXIT, it's fate was sealed, all too ironically, by the EU-Japan trade agreement that - by removing tariffs - has reduced the incentive for Japan to build cars in the EU at all - they'll all be made in Japan now. Classic.]
But, the beer will still be warm, the roads narrow, the pubs congenial, the food improved, the queues orderly, the theatre remarkable, the music mostly enjoyable, the writing sometimes elevating and the humour still hopefully self-deprecating.
We'll be OK. Send us a food package if it gets too awful.
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I wouldn't be so sure about Honda's Swindon plans. Sure they publicly said Brexit wasn't the cause, but the fact remains Brexit made their decision an easy one. If Britain were still in the EU and producing tariff-free cars then perhaps Honda would have stayed. Now we'll never know. With the EU-Japan FTA in place, there's no longer any reason for Honda to stay in the UK.
And this highlights a larger problem for Brexit Britain - it is voluntarily giving up a competitive advantage. A nation that punched above its weight thanks, in part, to a customized, privileged EU membership is now going it alone. Like a lone wildebeest wandering from the safety of the herd. Brexit doesn't add anything. It doesn't help Britain in any way. This is why no deal is such a likely outcome - there is no coherent way to deliver any Brexit that isn't a disaster for the country. For the past 2.5 years, the Brexit negotiations have consisted of unprepared British reps asking for things the EU have already made clear can't be given. Each time this happens Theresa May just kicks the can a little further down the road. Time's up.
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@longsummer
I sincerely hope you are correct and that nothing really bad will have happened in ten years time.
But I can't help thinking that you are whistling in the gathering darkness. What I foresee is a catastrophic fall in living standards as every sector of the UK economy gets pummeled, carnage and criminality returning to the island of Ireland, and a dramatic loss international power and prestige that weakens the rules-based system that has kept us (the West) safe for 70 years.
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longsummer’s stiff-upper-lip post reminds me of Captain Oates suicidal last words in the Antarctic in 1912, “I am going for a walk now. I may be some time.” He then walked out into a blizzard and was never seen again... but at least he didn’t make a fuss!
The beer will still be warm post-Brexit, mate, because there won’t be power for refrigeration!
Many Brits would rather die than acknowledge that they made a mistake... but the ones leaving witty comments are probably not the most vulnerable. It all makes me fear for my 81-year-old mum and other more vulnerable Brits who depend on competent management of the economy.
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"The best option, now that the country has sobered up, is to put Britain’s real future to a second people’s vote." All indicates that a new referendum will be as indecisive as the previous one. But, a new referendum will force everyone to take a clear stand on Brexit.
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A basic truth about UK politics is that the Tory Party is subservient to oil.
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If the major oil companies were opposed to Brexit - or even luke-warm - there is no possible circumstance under which it would be going forward. Not for 5 seconds.
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Oil is the only sector of the UK economy that favours this foolishness - because it doesn't want EU policy on Climate Change.
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That, ultimately, is what Brexit is about.
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And Brexit wil occur, deal or no deal, as long as Theresa May is at no. 10. The entire Tory plan is to run out the clock.
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Then it would be just desserts if Scotland picked up its marbles, and North Sea drilling rights, for independent statehood and EU membership.
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@Richard Blaine Interesting, maybe that is also a factor in the US. It could explain why the Republican party accepts the clearly incompetent Trump. If the Kochs et al. didn't want Trump ,he'd be out, but since Trump has no principles or ideas, he will do the Climate Change deniers' bidding.
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The oil companies are global, and if the UK’s tiny economy (on a global scale) was to cut out carbon, that in itself would have little effect on the profitability of the oil industry. So no, I don’t buy your argument. This is a lot more complicated than that.
If you want a cause that is not being discussed enough, look at the role of offshore trust fund accounts in British colonies like the Caymans, Guernsey and Jersey (ignore the pedants who will claim they’re not technically colonies), and the threat of EU law to regulate all that often-dirty money. It is not just the US that is allegedly being run by money-launderers!
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Given Russia's propensity for trying to affect elections elsewhere in Europe and the US, there is little reason to doubt that they worked ardently to ensure a pro-Brexit outcome because of the prospect of unraveling the EU and NATO. Why this is not a rampant subject of debate in Britain confounds me.
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@Will25 It's too easy for Putin. Nobody realizes that the chaos has been engineered by our adversary.
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@Will25 It seems to be.
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Seems to me that a sensible British government (is there one) would withdraw the notice to leave the European Union because it is simply and clearly a terrible idea to leave. Then, call an election, campaigning on having cancelled Brexit. Voters can then decide whether to return the party to power. Or replace it with a party that will reinstate Brexit - if either the Lib Dems or Labour would even choose to run an avowed pro-Brexit campaign.
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@Richard Jones
Exactly.
And Teresa can go on holiday to España for 3 years.
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@Richard Jones
Agreed. Theresa May has already said she will not stand for re-election & step down. She can put the good of the country ahead of party politics & fall on her sword to cancel Brexit. Tories call an election. She joins Cameron with holidays in the Caribbean. She will be vilified, but she already is. History may look kinder on her as a result. Will she do it? I doubt it, her & her advisors have made one bad decison after another. This Brexit mess will become the public policy case study of delusional group think for years to come.
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You hit the nail on the head, if there were a sensible government, alas there is none, the grown ups virtually all left the UK Parliament in the 2010, 2015 elections, much maligned by some but what I would give to have a Gordon Brown/ Alastair Darling partnership back in power, I could weep at the ineptitude shown by both parties and leaders. I haven't children, but if I did I the anger I would have towards the useless poseurs would keep me awake at night.
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Clearly people lost their senses in the past few years. Even Thatcher argued in favor of joining. In the past 50 years Britain has flourished, though growing inequality has meant that not all shared equally. The young became more European and less insular. Britain became a leader in the largest economic group in the world. Brexit will Hirt the country irrevocably. However, Ireland will be finally reunited. Scotland will become its own country again, and London will be dragged down by those who know no better. Regrets will come too late. Sadly, most people in Britain are exhausted, worn down by the past three years. They simply want it, whatever “it” is, to be over. I suspect it will be.
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Roger Cohen puts it very succinctly. This is, has been and will be a disaster, a self inflicted wound of monumental proportions. And yet the ringleaders are unrepentant & brush aside all concerns relating to a no deal. Almost without exception those men & women on the street interviewed on television who are the most rabid leave supporters are old or are in industries which have long blamed the EU for their own shortcomings, often single issue grievances which have been exploited by the very worst politicians. And they have no idea what the consequences are likely to be for they have long since shut out any debate. Unless Parliament comes to its senses imminently and votes to seek a delay & a second vote then we are sunk. But that will be the beginning of yet more agony as the demagogue Farage and the very worst of his supporters again take on the mantle of Trump's worst deplorable supporters - fact free chants and glib slogans. When one looks at the Tory ring leaders they are almost universally wealthy likely to suffer least from the economic fall out. Rees Mogg. Johnson, Fox, Cash not one of them has any understanding of how people live. And Corbyn, one of the most useless men to ever lead a UK political party. He and May deserve each other. Let's hope the parties continue to splinter so that the worst excesses on both sides are left behind. The only way forward is to bring our politics back to the centre. Let's stay in the EU if our European friends will have us.
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@Hopeoverexperience
Brexit seems to be a determined plot by the wealthiest in England mainly, to exit the EU before EU plans to move on taxation of their hoarded millions offshore. Simple as that!
Tory government well-heeled members have been essentially runnng the country for several years mown even
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@Hopeoverexperience ...
Disaster capitalism. A smoking ruin ruled over by Boris and Rees-Mogg, selling off bits to the highest bidders. The abolishment of health and safety rules, and the replacement of the extraordinary NHS with American-style "pay or die" health care.
All for money.
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@Hopeoverexperience European friends? No, European fellow citizens. And the doors are wide open, as long as the 'do ut des' games stop once and for all.
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A non-binding Brexit referendum which Theresa May has bound her government to is the ultimate flawed process with potentially disastrous consequences for UK workers.
It would be a great time for a different process. Huge decisions like Brexit usually require a supermajority vote in the legislature, following a legitimate effort to inform the public.
In my state, we have a Voter Information Pamphlet, formalizing the debate between pros and cons and with projections of impacts by state budget departments.
This might be boring but it seems a lot more intelligent than campaign buses emblazoned with false information.
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@Look Ahead
Right. The referendum has no place in the UK's (unwritten) constitution as a legislative process. It's purely advisory. Parliament, being sovereign, is supposed to have the last word. But the Government decided otherwise and Parliament has gone went down with a case of extreme cowardice.
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@Look Ahead
I tried to correct and add to my previous comment that went haywire but was unable to do so.
May is a typical Tory concerned primarily in her party’s interest at the expense of every other consideration.
Hence her total unconcern for any disastrous consequences for UK workers! Read the Guardian reader comments on her history along with her party since Cameron et al got in power. They have done terrible harm to the British people in so many ways that the country is now barely recognizable!
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