Trump has only one trading modus operandi: You do what I want or I will punish you." He doesn't know how to make a deal that is beneficial to all concerned. If this tactic is to fade into the mothballs of history, there must be a paradigm shift in all human thought.
In the near future, we will program the human mind in the computer based on a "survival" algorithm, which will provide irrefutable proof as to how we trick the mind with our ridiculous beliefs about what is supposed to survive - producing minds programmed de facto for destruction. These minds would see the survival of a particular group of people or a belief as more important than a benefit for all. When we understand all this, we will begin the long trek back to reason and sanity.
See RevolutionOfReason.com
3
Re:"Let’s be clear: China is not a good actor in the world economy. It engages in real misbehavior, especially with regard to intellectual property: The Chinese essentially rip off technology. So there is a case for toughening our stance on trade."
I really don't get this. As I understand it, the problem with "intellectual property" is that China makes this a condition for investing in China. Owners of intellectual property can choose to invest at home instead of in China if they don't want to legally share their intellectual property, and the only reason they don't want to invest at home is that the capital flows from China into the US keep our exchange rates high and their exchange rates LOW.
Why are you complaining about intellectual property and ignoring capital flows? http://www.rweconomics.com/htm/WDCh_2.htm
Re:"Let’s be clear: China is not a good actor in the world economy. It engages in real misbehavior, especially with regard to intellectual property: The Chinese essentially rip off technology. So there is a case for toughening our stance on trade."
I really don't get this. As I understand it, the problem with "intellectual property" is that China makes this a condition for investing in China. Owners of intellectual property can choose to invest at home instead of in China if they don't want to legally share their intellectual property, and the only reason they don't want to invest at home is that the capital flows from China into the US keep our exchange rates high and their exchange rates high.
Why are you complaining about intellectual property and ignoring capital flows? http://www.rweconomics.com/htm/WDCh_2.htm
The much-maligned (on the right and the left) Trans Pacific Partnership was specifically designed to pressure China to improve its trade practices. Sadly, everyone, right and left (but most notably in the left) maligned the TPP in the 2016 election.
Politicians take note! Explain in clear language what you are doing! Don’t cave based on polls!
I totally understood these issues and supported the TPP before the election but I’m a scientist who looks at data in spreadsheets. The average person doesn’t think this way. The politician’s job is to explain the reasons in ways that compel people to understand some potentially unpopular decisions.
We are living with the consequences of both apathy and a failure to communicate.
1
My father wanted me to study economics. It was too mundane for my creative spirit. SoI revolted and majored in Art...tinged with the sweet smoke of green leaves that pervaded the air in the bliss of the 60s Love Child era.
But even I can see the disastrous effects of someone who claims to be an astute businessman who has vision of a nearsighted mole with the only motivation being that he can "win". He boasts that he is all about tariffs, but he has no understanding of their impact. He is using them to flex his presidential muscles because it was a way to thump his chest at Xi without Congressional intervention. How much saner and safer it would have been to work out China's attacks on intellectual property and devious currency manipulations with the WTO.
Who pays for his folly? The very citizens who can least afford it...those who shop at Walmart and discount stores. And he is totally clueless about his monumental errors in judgment.
Yet,if he were to run for re-election today, the lemmings who wear the MAGA hats would fight to get to the polls to re-elect him.
Personally, I am for the elite...you know, those intellectuals who have studied cause and effect and have more than a passing knowledge of economic history, and an understanding of global strategies.
So I am grateful for those like Dr. Krugman who voice the realities. Unfortunately, those who need most to know will not listen.
31
I am truly exhausted from all of this winning!
7
"...Not a comforting thought." Now, listen here! You're talking about President Donald Trump, 1st in his class at The Wharton School of Economics (something like that) of the University of Pennsylvania. It was Joseph Wharton who invented protective tarrifs... a while back. China!? Well the enormous debt owed by the U.S. to China (8% of the total U.S. debt) is an indicator that China is not the only bad actor. Aside from that does the President think that this will lead to a war with China and North Korea, thereby cancelling the debt entirely? One could ask John Bolton for his take on that question, although it might be a waste of time to ask him. A line from Dylan Thomas, please: "The hawk on fire hangs still, and he learns from his arms that other sun, the jealous coursing of the unrivaled blood."
1
re:
But that toughening should be undertaken in concert with other nations that also suffer from Chinese misbehavior, and it should have clear objectives.
Since this country is having problems with its
european allies, it can't even work out a coordinated strategy
for dealing with the chinese rip-off industry, which you would think would be priority #1. But since the idiot leader doesn't think that way, this surely won't occur.
This offers yet another example how there will need to be much more structural damage before there is any improvement. Essentially we will need trump's core base to suffer deeply from their grievous sins of cult worship and distrust of anyone not trump to help address their daily difficulties.
The question is whether if that occurs they would blame trump or
find a new scapegoat instead.
Realistically, only a completely different political leadership can correct this irrational self defeating effort at modifying chinese behavior. In the meantime different sectors of the economy
will suffer more than others. They have my sympathies. But only
if they've also learned a lesson that can be applied in 2020.
Meanwhile, media circus "news" shows can't figure out how to cover this story intelligently and convey how this
is no way to run a trade policy. They are no match for
the master manipulator of all things media who is always
one step ahead of ever having to concede that he has no idea.
At present I don't yet see how that will happen
2
Once again the U.S. is suffering from its lack of commitment to rudimentary education; that is the kind that teaches one to read facts, understand them, and be able to apply critical thinking to problems.
13
Do not expect successful 'deals' from a fool who, along with his advisors, has a child's understanding of complex games. The article makes the key point:
'Let’s be clear: China is not a good actor in the world economy. It engages in real misbehavior, especially with regard to intellectual property: The Chinese essentially rip off technology. So there is a case for toughening our stance on trade.'
And because trade interactions are complex and he doesn't have a clue regarding how to apply pressure correctly, Don the Con's big achievements to date include putting tariffs on Canadian aluminum and punishing our midwestern farmers. This administration is full of 'useful idiots' and 'loose cannons'. Xi is smiling.
8
“That is not a comforting thought.”
Indeed!
3
I don't grasp the basics of trade policy, but I surely know enough that I'd seek expert advice if I had to negotiate it. But if the person in charge is a really stable genius, I guess we all have to live through a remake of Woody Allen's film "Bananas."
9
I just heard a recent podcast of an interview with one of America's leading spiritual leaders, Jack Kornfield.
He remembered how most of the "news" tends to report on negative things, whereas each hour there are a billion acts of kindness all around the world.
Yes, people can be highly deluded, and unhealthy desires can determine their actions and words, often damaging others. But that's only half of human history, and it is crucial for people to remember the other half too, the one about gigantic progress in the direction of justice, equality, civil rights, healthcare, education etc., based on real kindness and compassion, IF we want to be able to know how to move forward.
Although I adore reading this kind of op-eds, and knowing just where Trump was wrong today once again and why is crucial to understand where we are and what we do as a country, I do deplore the fact that most of these op-eds are negative.
We urgently need op-eds and articles about how to really achieve progress and make America and the entire world community "greater" today, because if not, half of the people will continue to be so disgusted/discouraged that they refuse to vote, and it's precisely the fact that 50% doesn't vote that led us to the current situation in the first place.
As Michelle said: when they go low, we go high. Now WHAT would that mean, when it comes to international trade?
Obama's TTP, probably. But if so, this is the right moment to talk about it and explain why!
8
China is a bad actor on many fronts. Trade is one of them, but it also is a totalitarian regime that is trying to make Orwell's 1984 come true. It's illegal in Tibet to own a picture of the Dali Lama. The Chinese government is creating recognition features that will allow them to identify and punish anyone who criticizes the regime. We should have nothing to do with this awful government.
4
@Pam
We can't, in the 21th century. The climate, stock markets, trade, and even terrorism links us all together now.
So it's up to us to deal with it, and do so in a skillful way, led by clear moral values, science-based policy proposals, and the knowledge that just like in the past, if we want to we CAN make progress, not only for ourselves but also towards more world peace and a better, more thriving world.
The Iran nuclear agreement would have been impossible without China, for instance. And without Obama's very smart climate change deal with China first, the Paris Climate Agreement would never have seen the light.
And by publicly receiving the Dalai Lama in the White House, Obama clearly signaled his rejection of China's totalitarian regime.
You can't have any influence over another country's government if, as the wealthiest and most powerful country on earth, you simply decide to do as if it doesn't exist. China exist, and it's only by engaging that we will be able to help the Chinese people, the Uyghurs and the Tibetans.
13
If there does not seem to be a method to Trump's madness, maybe that is because he is selling tariffs to the highest bidder and allowing donors to write our trade policy. A "good tariff" to Trump is one that gets him a hefty bribe. Good trade policy is one that allows him to put cash in an offshore account.
7
Who knew trade could be so complicated? I just discovered last week trade imbalances don't involve debt. I may be the first person to discover that.
5
The recent election made clear that what seem to be important issues for the US government are not really part of the discussion. We dont even have the bizzarre discussions of yesteryear about the Laffer curve or Vodoo economics. These days Trump supporters appear to have no position on any issue independent of Trumps position on it. One would like some consideration of the potential value of the TPP with respect to the world's position on cooperating with and containing China. Trumps base and his supporters in congress seem unable to discuss any political issues except to support Trumps position. When his position on an issue vacillates wildly from day to day (e.g. having a trade war or reducing hostility to China), that of his supporters also swings. I hate to admit that this situation makes Paul's very thoughtful commentary somewhat irrelevant to our times.
4
The midterm election results indicate that almost half the country supports Trump, despite everything he has done and will continue to do. Majorities in places like Texas.
We can quibble about which faction is slightly larger, but the Trump faction hovers around 50%. Trump’s policies and style are the favored policies and style of roughly half of America. So don’t criticize Trump so much. He’s just the messenger from the half of America we like to keep under wraps, except at election time.
30
@Murray
No - despite Mango's selected one poll, the average, even including that one outlier is around 42% positive; 54% negative.
He does not speak for half of America. BTW - that half gets the same number of senators per state as any other. thus, Wyoming has as much power in the Senate as California or New York.
44
@Murray
1. In real life, the Democrats managed to obtain the biggest differences in vote numbers in more than THREE decades.
They won the House with 15 million more votes than the GOP, and the Senate with 17 million more votes.
And that's out of a total of 85 million votes, so they got 52 million out of 85 million votes in the Senate, for instance. That's 63% of the votes, in other words almost two thirds.
And that perfectly mirrors what poll after poll shows: only 80% of GOP voters support Trump, and only 35% of the American people are GOP voters.
To be fair, you do have to add the number of Trump supporters (and Dem supporters) who didn't vote, of course, but even then, as uwteacher remarks, Trump only gets a 42% approval rating.
So no, this is not "roughly half of America", fortunately.
2. Pundits are supposed to criticize presidents not in function of how many people support them, but ONLY according to their own conscience, using facts and rational analysis and moral values as criteria. Op-eds are supposed to make us THINK about important political decisions, NOT to merely reflect them. Get rid of the critical part of their job, and you can't obtain a thriving democracy anymore.
3. I don't think Trump is the messenger. With the 24/7 fake news spread by Fox News and the GOP, GOP voters are horribly deluded today. Trump is copy-pasting FN's lines, and then GOP voters start to believe them, NOT the other way around ...
67
@Murray Supporting Trump does not automatically mean supporting Trump's trade policies.
6
A couple of years ago I read a piece analyzing Trump’s handling of his father’s legacy. It concluded he had added precious little value: if he had put the money in an index fund he would have done at least as well and likely better.
And now this man, elected in part for his supposed business acumen, has been entrusted with America’s legacy—and he has even less of a clue how to keep it intact, much less how to manage it to the greater good. He staffs our government not with the “best” people but with the ones he thinks best “look the part.” He picks up his ideas on the fly from his hours watching Fox TV every day. And he operates exclusively from his “gut,” claiming that is far smarter, far better for the country than learning from or even listening to people who know what they are doing could ever be. And so he careens from blunder to bigger blunder—on matters where the fate of our economy, our security, our republic itself are at stake—like the blind leading the lost.
If there were ever a clearer refutation of the conservatives’ rejection of meritocracy than the walking ignorance and incompetence of our 45th president I can’t imagine what it would be. We can only pray he will not crash our economy—or worse, conceivably far worse—before someone who DOES have a clue can take the reins.
171
Not Donald Trump’s “mental procsses”. His gut. Because, as he tweeted, “...I have a gut and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.”
2
@Hman
That might be true (the part about him listening to his gut).
Neurologists have already shown that the gut is actually our "second brain", with lots of neurons and neurological connections.
On the flip side ... the health of your gut does depend on what you eat. With his diet of Coke and cheeseburgers, I'm afraid that his gut looks like a desert rather than a flourishing flora full of bacteria helping the gut (and as such the entire body and brain) to thrive ... .
Which then would of cours explain why he believes that as president of the biggest economy and military on earth he nevertheless doesn't need to surround himself with real experts and advisers, asking "personal loyalty" instead, as if his biggest fear is that someone would tell him that one of his gut feelings or ideas might actually have been proven to be totally wrong ...
2
Trump’s escape hatch has always been to declare bankruptcy than saunter off without a care in the world. This is not comforting. However, the real deal makers of Wall Street will have his scalp hanging from their belts before the New Year.
8
It's absolutely sickening how incompetent Trump is in the oval office. It use to be quaint to say "maybe he'll be president someday," about a child with all the potential in the world. Now, that doesn't really mean anything. The presidency is no longer a position of merit. If Donald Trump can be president, anyone can be president no matter how dumb, corrupt or indolent.
13
The way Dr. Krugman picks and chooses his "data-associated" talking points is thoroughly unscientific. To reach the conclusion that there is NOT a significant popular backlash against globalization in the midst of Yellow Jacket protests [which are supported by 84% of the French people (see, anyone can do this) and probably most Americans, as well] is bold, indeed. Just name any developed western country and you will likely find a significant and rising anti-globalization and/or protectionism movement. France, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Portugal, Italy, Poland.... it just goes on and on. Dr. Krugman refuses to see the most obvious writing on the wall. Fox news and all polls I've seen indicate that Trump supporters feel that he is delivering on his protectionistic campaign promises and they are happy with him - for this reason. (Whether any of this is wise or even legitimate is another matter.) Dr. Krugman TOTALLY missed the popular support for Bernie, Trump and Brexit - a trifecta of working class cluelessness. (His post-election, doomsday economic predictions suggest to me that these errors are the result of subjective interpretation rather than a perception or data problem.) Dr. Krugman is very professorial toward his readers, but where's his learning curve?
3
@carl bumba
Please tell us where exactly all those protest movements are asking their governments to start trade wars and use tariffs and trade less ... ? Because THAT is what this op-ed is all about, remember?
As to Bernie: he didn't oppose international trade, he opposed the fact that GOP politicians systematically use Congress to pass bills that shift money from the 99% to the 1% wealthiest international Wall Street elites.
It's true that Trump took over part of that rhetoric too, as a candidate.
But look at his only major legislative achievement, and you'll see how he completely flip-flopped once he became president. And for the moment, his tariffs are only hurting ordinary citizens BOTH here and in China.
Conclusion: what you call "the most obvious writing on the wall" is a mere subjective assumption - and one that is easy to debunk ... ;-)
5
@Ana Luisa
Nearly all of the anti-EU and nationalist movements in nearly all countries of the EU embrace anti-globalization and protectionism views. It has been rising steadily throughout Europe (where I lived 20 years) since the introductions of common currency in each country (or the "Teuro" as it was referred to in Austria).
Bernie was always an Independent who opposed globalized capitalism and the exploitation of workers by multinational corporations. (I lived in VT for 7 years, too.) The unfair benefits for the top 1% is obscene; while the unfair benefits for the top 20% is just very wrong.
If you haven't noticed, Bernie is not leading the Trump bashing party. He listens to the same folks that Trump listens to. They have different solutions, but they both respect the working class and do not patronize them. Trump's supporters don't feel that he flip-flopped or his policies are hurting them. I'm inclined to believe them. Again, there are many polls supporting this, as well as Fox news (on a daily basis). To be clear, I'm not using Fox news as a reference for a political view here. I'm just assuming that Fox is not telling their audience mistruths about THEM. In any case, I think that Bernie can address their concerns (and others') much better than Trump. So, hopefully, I debunked your bunk.
1
His book and this article should have been called 'the art of the steal'.
4
Donald Trump has been abnormally honest about his penchant for and use of dishonesty. He made public statements about his lying many times, and over several decades. It has been on display for all to see. I still cannot believe how many poor souls fell for his act.
This abomination of an attempted presidency was entirely preventable because it was so very predictable.
7
Krugman’s comment. “We’ve always had a trade war with Eastasia,” comes straight from Orwell’s 1984. How much more telling can we get?
3
Yes, Trump is a con at best and a lunatic at worst and his ever-loving base and the cadavers in the GOP who go along with his smoke and mirrors think everything is fine.
When the banks fail again, and student loan and credit card defaults reach, say, another dozen trillion, Trump will probably give said banks and other corporations another tax cut and go golfing.
When Mira Lago is underwater, maybe Trump can rename it Mira Glub Glub, because he still won't acknowledge climate change because he and his ignorant base doesn't believe in it. Give 'em scuba gear and they can all have fun.
If Trump figures out that he's been had very badly by his latest loves, Kim Jong Ung and Putin, he can always just declare war. A lot like getting a divorce, which he knows something about. Can't he?
When his family and all of his sort of former friends are facing prison time, he can just pardon them all and their crimes will just go away and they can get new jobs doing nothing, which they know so well. Buy Ivanka's stuff!
And if he gets voted out of office, he'll just declare the elections fake and nullify them, make himself emperor at last, and he presto! American will have disappeared! Just like that.
7
Trump's life is based on lies, cheating, scamming, bullying and criminal behavior. He is indeed a rebel without a clue about everything since he never bothered to learn anything since he always had daddy to bail him out. Elections have consequences.
2
I believe it is now quite possible, reasonable in fact, for every sane human being to agree that the removal of the current occupant of the White House is urgent. Most 'who know' believe that the occupant will not seek 're-election'. Most who grasp the potential for long term catastrophic destruction of the United States agree that the occupant and all his planted minions throughout the government cannot be allowed to stay in place for one moment longer than legally necessary. The country right now is in the position of an occupied, nearly vanquished wreck - each day that passes makes its re-construction less possible. There is very little time.
6
Somehow I suspect the Grim Reaper will get Cadet Bone Spurs before America does.
7
The late Monty Hall was a better deal maker than Tramp!
3
Originally Trump appointed Gary Cohn as National Economic Council Director. Cohn cam to Washington after a 25 year career at Goldman Sachs leaving as President and Co-Chief Operating Officer. In early summer Cohn told Trump that using tariff's as a weapon was a terrible idea. Of course Trump wouldn't listen to someone more experienced with this than himself. Cohn new it was going to be a problem so he quite rather than be a part of the disaster. In comes Larry Kudlow to replace him - a tv pundit, former cocaine addict and a yes man. Now here we are.
7
It's surprising, and disturbing, how much of American politics and policies are so personal these days.
Once upon a time (as in, 3 years ago), the First Citizen is doing things in the name of The Republic. A policy failure (think: Iraq War) is not a personal failure (W is widely regarded as a decent and kind person, with some really bad policies, for example).
These days, it's all about President the (orange) person. News sources spend endless articles speculating the President's thoughts and palace intrigues. Anything happens, and it's a flattery or insult to "President Trump." Elections of 438 separate districts with a hundred plus millions of distinct individuals, and it's all about approval or disapproval of Trump the person.
When we discuss performance at work, we are usually asked to avoid being personal. In other words, discuss the problems, not berate the people. Maybe our president should use the same advice.
2
i'm sorry, but no one i know thinks of w that way.
1
Paul, why would we expect you to take anything other than an anti-Trump position?
Again, a tariff is a customs duty on merchandise imports and gives a price advantage to similarly imported goods, raises revenue for government and protects local jobs so what exactly is wrong with that?
Whereas ,free trade creates jobs in lower wage, lesser regulated and lower taxing countries at the expense of American jobs (which is why China is now the champion of free trade), runs roughshod over sovereignty and enables corporations to play one country off against the other for a lower wage lower taxing outcome.
In short, a race to the bottom and a race responsible American economists shouldn't be championing.
1
If 95% of the world's population is outside the US, how is it that in the very long term a protectionist policy could make sense for the US? Every country begins to require multinationals to manufacture the goods they sell to their citizens from plants in their own country. So US companies need more factories overseas, not less. And once they are there, if the cost of labor or materials is lower, doesn't that make sending the cheaper good back to the US the best for everyone? I'm sure Trump has done the math on that and just left a decimal out.
1
@Pete
So we're all supposed to be just consumers of cheap goods and shareholders of American multinational corporations? Is this really sustainable in the long term? Don't you think that there are strong economic (and even cultural) reasons for us to produce the goods that we use? The fact that we have only 5% of the world's population, but maybe 20% of its resources, argues in favor of protectionism, to me. England might have a tougher row to hoe...
@carl bumba
You seem to forget that the only way to get people make cheap products is to abandon all labor laws, as is typically the case in developing, industrializing economies?
And that Americans want GOOD jobs, not just a job?
The problem today isn't that China is taking over all the dirty jobs, it's that now that we have a fully developed economy and became the wealthiest country on earth, we unfortunately tend to vote for politicians who systematically shift that wealth from the 99% to the 1% wealthiest citizens, and THAT is how poverty, lack of healthcare etc. continues in America, NOT because of the fact that developing countries took over cheap manufacturing.
1
As a conman Trump is out of his league because he does not have the slightest idea of what he does not know and want he does know is is 80 years out of date.
I remember in NY City's Chinatown there was a storefront with a chicken that played tic tack toe. The chicken was well trained and it either won or there was a standoff with a human opponent. . As between a contest between Trump and the chicken I would bet on the chicken, unless the chicken was bribed to lose so Trump could claim a "win." .
6
And funny how those in his administration who have been advocating for strong tariffs have profited handsomely.
2
In 2003 The Economist published, “Krugman: The One-Handed Economist,” in which it questioned Krugman's "growing tendency to attribute all the world's ills to George Bush,” citing critics who felt that "his relentless partisanship" undermined his argument, resulting in errors of economic and political reasoning. Obviously the same can said of his weekly tirades against Donald J. Trump. Thank you.
1
@Southern Boy
In that case, what would your concrete arguments be, once you'd like us to dismiss this entire op-ed as "relentless partisanship"?
Any ideas?
2
@Southern Boy: Krugman was right about George W. It took him 7 years to ruin the economy with his disasterous policies of big tax cuts for the rich, deregulation, and huge deficits. He also started a war that blew up the Middle East, and put it on the nation's credit card.
Trump will ruin the economy with his huge tax cuts for the rich, trade wars, deregulation, and corruption, but he will do it far faster than Bush did. Professor Krugman is right again to criticize him.
6
@Southern Boy
To date, the only one with weekly, if not daily tirades is Donald J. Trump.
Thank you.
5
We will celebrate when Trump is out of office. We will not mourn him when he passes. He is an ignoble life-long grifter. He is a failed president, proven to be unfit for the office. He is a man who served himself at the great expense of America.
8
Trump is the ultimate "imaginary leader". His skills, results, policies, appointees, influence,& global standing are all in his head. That is why he has the need to trumpet (sorry) them on an almost hourly basis, while denouncing all "non-believers" as fake or treasonous.
5
Has anyone thought to search for a stained blue dress -- so we have what we need to begin an impeachment process?
3
Trump is an idiot. Period. End of story.
7
Trump is an idiot and a fraud, has been all of his life.
6
Somebody, like Prof. Krugman, should explain what China is "ripping off US technology" means. These days everybody is blaming China stealing American technology, as if, the US is a developing country incapable of managing its trade deals. If China is stealing American technology by industrial espionage then it is not alone; all industrialized countries (including the US) are doing it one way or another. On the other hand, if, in spite of their technological and scientific advantage, the American companies cannot protect their trade secrets, they should reconsider their bottom line, they are either after short-term higher profits or they do not mind long-term consequences of losing their proprietary technology. It is not even conceivable that American businesses in China will bend backward to give away their technology because they simply coerced them. We can easily assume that lower labor cost versus IP sell-off is part of legal trade agreements. If Chinese partners break agreements, American companies can easily “leave” these deals rather than “take” them. Otherwise, they can easily get their products manufactured in Europe (with their IP "better" protected) instead of in China, or instead of backing off trade agreements such as TPP, they seek better market-based solutions in order to protect their IP.
1
4 out of 10 of our neighbors still believe everything he says.
That is the "constituency" that supports Trump.
The story of our nation has become a tragedy.
12
Get us once and for all time, rid of Trump. Anything will be better than this.
Even better, get us rid of the swamp that is now the illegal occupation of the White House.
How much more must we endure of this?
3
On the other hand.....I rest more comfortably at night with the knowledge that our President 'knows all the best words'.....
So we got that going for us ...which in pretty nice....
3
The obvious is: Russia controls OPEC, Russia controls the Middle East, Russia benefits from China -USA trade war and estrangement from Europe, Russia benefits from the internal breakdown of American society, all that equals = Trump works for Putin!
4
It is clear that Trump does not get Trade or Tariffs. He found a simple solution for a complex problem with a hidden agenda:
Increasing tariff will make foreign products expensive - true
Making foreign products expensive will make people buy American products - false, because the American companies charge a customer a competitive price. Example, US Steel companies are not selling their product for a lower price, but making more money.
Manufacturers will make a product in the US instead of making it outside and paying tariffs to bring it in - false, this requires an industrial policy and a plan. Somethings like tariff which can be changed on a short notice will not sway companies.
Tariff increases Government revenue - true.
Government needs more money to pay the debt.
Trump simple minded thought process? Increase Tariffs to make up for the tax break . Jobs will also migrate back to the US. Everyone wins. A win-win negotiator, right?
Other details such as IP theft? Companies will have to take care of their own problems.
1
Trump is a man that likes MONEY. What would be his price to resign from the office of president?
8
Once again--Krugman hits the target dead center. It was obvious he was barely able to sit or pay attention at G.H.W.s State Funeral. The man who does not read and has no comprehension of history or culture--even and especially his own--lives day-to-day dragging all of us through his increasingly monotonous yet dangerous reality theater. The "rebel without a clue" indeed. In this tragic drama, the victims are the audience.
9
The only comforting thought in these bizarre times, in which Voldemort is in charge of Hogwarts, is that the public record is full of contemporary observers who peer into the bottomless pit of Trump's unsuitability for the office he holds. It is a nightmare from which there is no awakening. It is the reality with which we are all forced to live.
4
There is no doubt that China has been taking advantage of us for decades. But if we are going to have a trade showdown, lets negotiate on issues and strategies that will be good for America 30 years down the road. Our vison is sadly lacking.
Thirty years ago we knew that ideas, information and entertainment were our main products, but we did not write in, nor enforce intellectual property issues in our trade policy.
Lets not be so dumb this time around.
2
One cannot help but think of Roy Cohn, Donald Trump's mephistophelean mentor, every time he opts to "double down" in an effort to bring his opponent to their knees.
And that is exactly what's happening now with his mindless tariffs which will ultimately shrink the U.S. economy instead of advancing it.
Only a nationalistic xenophobe like this president could ever think that alienating not only our closest trading partners, but the rest of the world would amount to any good without having further consequences down the road.
He probably doesn't even realize that many supporters in the agricultural communities that make up his base are suffering from decision to play hardball with China.
And then there's the fiasco of his plan to kill off NAFTA, just so that he can boast of his accomplishments.
However not only do most Americans already know the millions of jobs he promised aren't coming back, they also know these overly protectionist measures will never make America great again.
4
How was Obama, or Bush, tough on China's policies? Currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, dumping products at low prices? Where did they go right?
Obama is a community organizer.
That means being an expert in building common ground among people who don't necessarily have a lot of common interests at first.
What he did with China was:
- recognizing its people's right to develop their economy so that poverty disappears and everybody who works hard can have a decent job and see his/her family thrive
- recognizing China's need to protect itself, and its mistrust of the US, based on past history
- understanding that China tries to become in the future what the US is today: the wealthiest country, with the biggest economy and biggest military - and seeing that as it is a dictatorship, that's a huge threat for the US
- making sure that China more and more wants to play by the rules of the game by integrating it in world trade and important international political agreements, such as the Iran nuclear deal, and the Paris Climate Accord (as China and the US taken together, at the time, were responsible for half of the world's carbon emissions, getting a deal with China first would allow him much easier to then convince the rest of the world)
- working with highly skilled diplomats and negotiators in order to build a coalition with Southeast Pacific countries which increases trade between the US and those countries based on fair prices and practices (including better labor conditions for local workers), and lower tariffs (= the TTP) that shows China what it could get IF it cooperates more.
He ended currency manipulation.
1
@Gerry
While the need to reign China in has been obvious for years, Trump is not the man to do it. His conception of
"problem solving" is to spout decrees and insults unilaterally, without consulting his advisers. This is done before any attempts to approach the problem like an adult. As a result, we get NK still making bombs and a "new" NAFTA with only minor tweeks to "old" NAFTA.
if you really want to know why our nation allowed all our jobs to go overseas, you need look no further than corporate board rooms. Bush and O likely bowed to their wishes.
1
@Ana Luisa
I'm checking further but...
BY CHARLES BOVAIRD Updated Oct 19, 2018
The Chinese yuan has had a currency peg since 1994. This approach makes Chinese exports cheaper and, therefore, more attractive compared to those of other nations. By motivating the global marketplace with greater motivation to buy its goods, China ensures its economic prosperity.
Exports are a major driver of any economy because they represent money flowing into a nation. To keep the yuan artificially low and support robust export activity, the People's Bank of China engages in currency purchases. As a result, the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves (minus gold) surged from roughly $600 billion in December 2004 to $3.8 trillion in December 2014.
Economic Boom
This currency manipulation has helped China thrive, as the nation's economy has repeatedly experienced robust growth rates of more than 10% over the last decade. China’s industrial sector has done particularly well. According to the Congressional Research Service, the nation became the world's largest manufacturer in 2010. Due to robust growth, China doubled its gross domestic product (GDP) per capita over the course of a decade, a feat that took the industrialized United Kingdom 150 years to complete. This rapid expansion has helped China grab a 25% to 26% share of global value-added manufacturing since 2014, according to U.N. estimates reported by the Congressional Research Service.
1
This week's stock market smackdown indicates the marketplace now acknowledges the truth about Donald Trump: he is a total child, an attention seeking showoff, a bully from a small family-owned hotel business who has no clue of where he is or how to conduct operating the world's largest economy.
Too bad for us the GOP also has no clue how to run America.
4
I had not known that, compared to other executive powers, the president had so much leeway with tariffs. Perhaps Trump likes to impose tariffs simply because it's something he can do unilaterally, a button on his console that satisfyingly does something (next to the one that summons a Diet Coke).
8
Sadly it appears that Trump may leave the world economy in a shambles, if not bankrupt. Just like his own "businesses". I keep wondering when enough will be enough and this presidency will come to an end? The nation and evidently the world cannot wait until the end of this term. This one very unqualified man has way too much power. Congress?
7
@Bailey
Ordinary citizens are waking up, finally.
Not only did the Democrats win 40 House seats, 7 Governorships, and more than 100 state legislation seats, they also got a historic number of votes, in the sense that the gap, in terms of number of votes, between the winning and losing party has never been this big in more than 30 years (Democrats received a whopping 15 million more votes in the House, AND 17 million more votes in the Senate).
If this continues, the nightmare WILL be over in two years, and then we can finally start MAGA.
6
@Ana Luisa: "Not only did the Democrats win 40 House seats, 7 Governorships, and more than 100 state legislation seats, they also got a historic number of votes..."
According to CBS News, "An estimated 113 million people participated in the 2018 midterm elections, making this the first midterm in history to exceed over 100 million votes, with 49 percent of eligible voters participating in the election."
So even with Trump being the target of every Democrat, not even half of eligible voters showed up.
"(Democrats received a whopping 15 million more votes in the House, AND 17 million more votes in the Senate)."
And the point is what? Those 17 million more votes in the Senate did not equate to flipping the Senate. This is now one of the favorite liberal talking points - the TOTAL number of votes as opposed to votes in each race.
"...the nightmare WILL be over in two years..."
Trump may be shown the door in two years, but that does not mean the nightmare of a too-big national government is over.
One hundred state legislative seats, divided by fifty states, equals... two per state.
trump's business acumen has been on display for years in Atlantic City. If Hard Rock hadn't bought one of the two trump casinos, there would still be two symbols of how trump hasn't a clue on how to manage money.
What other casino owner in a popular beach area hasn't made money?
7
"On trade, Trump is a rebel without a clue"
The power of the purse (raising revenue) is a function reserved for the legislative branch. Congress should impose, eliminate or otherwise modify tariffs. If the President disagrees, he has the veto power. Maybe we should get back to that.
1
Recently purchased some pressure gauges for a client's project. They are made in China and there was a "Tariff Fee" line item on the invoice. Our client, an American company, will be paying that fee. Are we tired of all the winning yet ?
12
A large part of America voted for a messiah, trying hard not to see that he was a dictator. Religion has very, very deep roots.
5
@Roland Berger: "A large part of America voted for a messiah..."
Yeah, we did that in 2008 too...
@hm1342
Except that in 2008 what part of the Obama voters indeed perceived as a "messiah" had done his homework and had a whole list of science-based policy proposals ready, AND was strongly engaged in the legislative process, which is why he actually got something done, and something that benefited the 99% ...
1
When is enough enough?
He loses the popular vote by 3 million or more. (Has anybody truly gotten an accurate count of the illegal immigrants, dead people and others who were ineligible to vote, but did anyway? Maybe the Fake President didn't REALLY win the Electoral College, but simply SAID he did and everybody, including the national media which continually gave him free publicity under the balanced coverage rule, just accepted it. These obstructionist dedicated tools of the corporations and right wing billionaires, like the Koch brothers, must be removed from office before they do any more damage to the country, constitution and the people wh o DID NOT cast their vote for the minority. MAJORITY RULE. AND NOTHING LESS.
6
@Frank Anton: "He loses the popular vote by 3 million or more."
And your point is what? If you want the President to be determined by popular vote, push for a constitutional amendment. I don't see the Democratic Party pursuing that.
Tariffs are taxes paid by you and me, to feed The Donald and his buddies at Mar a Lago. Ain't life grand?
7
China has been stealing intellectual property for decades. It’s government policy. Regardless of trump’s ignorance, this one aspect needs to be addressed with vigor. A combination of tariffs, sanctions and international cooperation is needed promptly.
3
That was big part of TPP. Remember?
2
@Rad. If you want to manufacture in China, how are you going to stop the co-opting your tech. Once you base production in that country, you cede control of your product.
Also big part of TPP. Remember?
This roller coaster administration is destined to implode , let’s hope the Country is strong enough to keep all the pieces together towards a more stable future .
5
There is nothing in our current dilemma that is a comforting thought.
t rump bellows: "lock her up" or "build that wall" and a few thousand people roar with approval and he thinks he is Franklin Roosevelt.
The rest of US huddle in the corner, clutching our security blankets and wondering when the sky will fall in.
He opens up more land to oil and gas drilling while the Earth is on fire and flooding and going to get worse because human beings won't do anything to try to save our planet.
Led by the most offensive and stupid so called human being who has ever clung to power.
C'mon, Mueller. We are running out of time.
15
While the trade deals and tariffs affect on our economy can and will be debated for years to come; Mr. Krugman glosses over or purposely omits the true cause for the stock market sell off.
That being high frequency trading based an a plethora of algorithmic trading. These algorithms triggered huge selloffs based solely off of news feeds and hyperbole relating to the Huawei executive detainment in Canada at US behest.
The arrest was read as a Trump bargaining ploy. Hence ticking off China, hence freaking out investors worried about a trade war.
Simply put, Trump has interests in only one thing; his own.
Strong evidence that in this case, corruption and stupidity are mutually exclusive.
Not to mention an economic threat of potentially gargantuan proportions.
Speaking for myself, I've had more than a belly full of "winning."
7
Facts & Evidences speak louder than dogma: American Democracy produced Donald Trump the President & endorsed his misdeeds against the People. Whatever political system that allows this unthinkable to happen has to be a bankrupted system.
Brainwashed by dogma, the cult of "American Democracy is Great" will persist. The defenders will again quote Winston Churchill's wrong headed opinion. Nothing short of another bloody civil war will shake people up to demand a total overhaul of the system:
Rewrite the Constitution, get rid of the Electoral College, rebuke Citizens United, outlaw gerrymandering, rebuilt check & balance, entrench separation of church & state, mandate compulsory voting, copy the meritocracy model of multinational corporations to promote & appoint high level government officials, make civics lessons a requisite in school curriculum, etc etc.
Not going to happen. This reality show will drag on.
5
@Observer: "Rewrite the Constitution, get rid of the Electoral College..."
Why do you think we have an electoral method of selecting our President in the first place?
Indeed, it is a discomfiting thought, at best. The only thing we can hope is that Mueller has found enough illegal activity by this shoddy excuse for an administration, to finally nail Trump, once and for all. But what a pathetic commentary for the nation that once held the world enthralled.
4
When FDR put trade powers in the executive branch he nor anyone else could have foreseen or even imagined the likes of a Trump as president.
4
How do we comprehend Trump’s behavior? Is he in thrall to Russia? Then as a security risk he must be replaced. Is he mentally ill to a degree that he is not rresponsoble for his actions? Then , he must be removed as disabled? Does he lack the judgment for sound political decisions and is he unable to take advice from skilled advisors? Then, he is simply incompetent and is blinded by his false sense sense of personal grandiosity.
Is the nation’s present danger too great to believe that all will be well until the people replace him in 2020? Then, The cabinet, the Republican Party, or the Congress—House and Senate together—must remove him.
Clearly the danger the nation faces is not simply the manifest erratic performance of the president. The real danger is that those with the legitimate authority to mitigate the effects of Trump’s behavior lack the will to exercise their constitutional authority.
6
Well, if the giants of world trade can't figure out how to contain the idiocy of one man, no matter what his title is, then they (the giants) aren't so giant after all.
@Robert McKee
What makes you believe that there are "giants of world trade"?
All that we have are countries, led by democratically elected leaders or dictators, trying to regularly meet and find a way to use trade to keep off violent wars between nations.
3
@Ana Luisa
I, personally. don't believe they are 'giants.' The discussion in newspapers imply that they are. Personally, I think there are lots of greedy people out there who do whatever they can get away with to get money for themselves.
2
@Robert McKee
Maybe.
All that I'm saying is that international trade organization were designed to allow elites all around the world to try to solve their trade problems (independently of what motivates them - greed, or serving their own people well, or still other motivations) peacefully, so that a third world war can be avoided.
The US is the wealthiest nation on earth, with the biggest economy (and military). That inevitably gives any US president more power to do whatever he decides to do than the leader of any other country.
But it also comes with a bigger responsibility to behave himself wisely, and to continue to use the world's available tools to avert WWIII, rather than to start thinking about his own wealth alone ... .
1
He's our nation's drunk uncle.
Foreign policy based on prejudice, economic policy based on no principles at all. A deal maker who can't make a deal. He's a man who remembers how things once were, and he believes he can remake those days by fiat. It's not working.
We have seen two years of the failure of his leadership and his thinking. Let's hope he leaves office quietly before he does two more years of damage. Spin isn't leadership, Mr. Trump. Spin won't make America great.
5
We should be very clear on this. At the federal level the US is a Failed State. We will definitely pay for it pretty soon with climate collapse and toxicity from unregulated...anything. Probably we will pay sooner with economic collapse and/or war. Good job Republicans.
4
@Doc: "We should be very clear on this. At the federal level the US is a Failed State."
We have been like this long before Trump took office.
1
Does this shock anyone. I'm sure his supporters think he's doing a great job
2
Donald Trump doesn’t have mental “processes.” He has random, disconnected urges and reactions that will never form a coherent whole. The idea of this man engaging in anything deserving of the label “negotiation” is ridiculous.
5
The president of the US acts like an economics terrorist on the world stage. Terror puts fear in people and that causes real damage. Just look at the stock markets, look at the trade disruptions and look at the treats to violators of US imposed economic embargoes. Thats is not different than terrorisms just a new form.
3
How a blatantly self-serving charlatan like Trump retains anywhere near 40% public approval is simply beyond me.
3
We have a Wizard of Oz president. It is all flim-flam all the time. But it is our own fault and the fault of the press that we give the slightest credence to his nonsensical pronouncements. Virtually nothing he says or does has any actual substance. When he lashes out with his executive orders, they are immediately challenged, and his staff has to scramble with infinite "do-overs" to somehow shoehorn his absurd directives into any kind of valid legal framework.
Trump is a laughingstock in the world. He is easily played, and as a result the United States is a laughingstock. The irony is that Trump claimed to be doing things that would prevent the U.S. from being taken advantage of. We are helpless to stop the Trump destruction juggernaut as long as Republicans protect him.
It is now time to gear up for 2020. We must excise the Trump cancer from our nation. It will destroy us all.
5
Donald Tump is having a great time exercising his power which in foreign policy and trade is almost absolute. This is where he really really has a lot of fun.
As a narcissist he is totally realized when important decisions depend solely on him - this is precisely the reason why he ran for president. To satisfy his mental illness and insecurities.
We pray that somehow or another or may be a miracle Tump will be checked in his endeavors. These are turbulent and dangerous times and we all need to be vigilant.
1
What Pres. Trump understands about economics, fiscal policy, and trade would fit on the back of a matchbook cover with space to spare.
2
We know now what we knew in 2016: Donald Trump is way over his head and Mueller's indictments can't come fast enough.
Wow. What a tough lesson this has been for our political system and if we come out okay, we've dodged a very big bullet.
2
As wise man Hsi Tang once said: "Although gold dust is precious, when it gets in your eyes, it obstructs your vision".
That pretty much sums up today's GOP, whose gold-obsessed leader couldn't symbolize the entire party better.
7
@Ana Luisa
Everything that glitters is not gold.
'So the future of world trade, with all it implies for the world economy, now hinges largely on Donald Trump’s mental processes.'
One that is consumed by mental illness.
3
As I see it, a President does not have to be an all-rounder, not even a master of any specific skill, except one. He should be able to form stable teams of experts to derive appropriate policy plans, retain such teams, and carry out their suggested policy plans to country’s expectation without suffering too much variance.
Unfortunately for the President, none of the teams ever materialized in the last 22 months simply because he saw himself as the only outstanding player, who knew everything, understood everything, and knew how to negotiate best. In this kind of milieu, you cannot have a team. An isolated “tariff-man” listening to Fox News as his only source of his information belies any team-foundation.
10
It is true that the Chinese have a way of taking other peoples work, but it is also true that the concept of intellectual property is a sledge hammer that keeps developing countries in their place. Intellectual property gives individuals, but mostly large companies, reward for developing good ideas and products, but it also can be and is defined so broadly that it prevents competition. Monopsony is a problem within an individual country, but it is a huge problem when applied on an international level like the US wants to apply it. For Trump, making America great is only about winning, both within the country but even more so, between countries. It is not about what is good for the world, it is not about what is fair to other countries, it is not about making life better for Hondurans or anyone else. It is essentially about what is good for Donald Trump and what makes him feel like a big man.
5
@smcmillan
you are so right that"America First" was only a slogan to dupe voters. Weren't his Trump brand silk ties made in China? What about Ivanka getting all those Chinese trademarks in May (while traveling with her father, we thought, on official business) before she decided to close it down this summer.
Not only trade is held hostage to Trump but with the relentless sanctions passed in the US against Iran and Russia the US is further in a position to harm freedom of trade in world. Now countries are racing to undue the monetary and trade policies put into effect after WW2. China wants to set up its trade policies in the third world to undermine the World Bank and the IMF and benefit Chinese trade. The EU is trying to end US dominance with their sanctions and tariffs. US influence is rapidly declining because of international resentment of the USs thoughtless tariffs and sanctions.
3
It seems incredible Trump actually doesn't understand tariffs are taxes on American consumers but this is the second place I've seen that alleged. And it's scary stuff.
8
President Trump's trade war is typical in showing his zeal to "win". First, Trump creates a crisis, as when he decried NAFTA as being unfair. Then, he, and he alone, is the great savior and a "winner" with USMCA, essentially a NAFTA with different i's dotted and t's crossed. Trump imposes tariffs on importation of steel and aluminum, but "wins" by granting tariff exemptions to favored companies.
Nobody is saying that Trump is not right in calling out China for its unfair trade practices. Trump's trade war with China is doomed to failure with his go-it-alone approach, rather than launching an effort coordinated with one-time staunch US allies. There is a non-zero risk here that, in the end, Trump will do significant damage to the US economy, the world economy and all of us with his impetuous and antagonistic and singular efforts. An economic downturn could happen as the direct result of a babe-in-the-woods trying to do the heavy lifting of world trade.
4
One other reason that Trump may like tariffs is that they bring money from the consumer to the treasury. Congress may have given him power over trade, but Trump is in effect robbing Congress's power of the purse to help make up for the loss of revenue from the big tax cut .
6
@Gene Fisher
But not much. Tariffs are only 1% of the budget. Comes nowhere near making up for his tax cuts for the rich.
2
Your argument gives entirely too much credit to Trump.
3
Trump's trying to solve the intellectual property issue with tariffs is like trying to crack open a peanut with a pile driver. My feeling is that we can come to an agreement on this one issue with China without resorting to tariffs because it is in their interest to come to an agreement. After all, they are becoming technological powerhouse as well, and they'll need protection from the likes of Vietnam, Pakistan, Malaysia, and the biggest rogue of all, North Korea, just like us. It should be relatively easy for the techno powerhouses - China, the US, Japan, the European Union, and S. Korea - to come to some sort of self protection agreement.
2
If the Trump administration is so keen on tariffs as a trade weapon, why not single out blatantly copied products for tariffs, rather than trade items over which there is little dispute? Oh right, they'd have to do homework to figure out what products were in question. Never mind.
5
For more than a century, "globalization" consisted of the West colonizing the rest of the world and/or putting dictators in place so that we could steal their resources and fully develop our own economies.
Now, since a couple of decades, the rest of the world is developing its economies too, and just like what we did, that means inhumane working conditions in order to produce extremely cheap products.
As in developed economies people refuse this kind of labor conditions, we gave up this kind of jobs, especially because technology and much better healthcare created lots of "service" jobs instead. In the meanwhile, we bought those cheap products made by slaves overseas, and were happy.
Simultaneously, however, we've regularly voted for politicians who told us that if only they can destroy social security, our education system, our healthcare system and decent wage laws, then somehow the wealthy will become SO much wealthier that somewhere in the future, ordinary citizens would become wealthier too.
The result, as expected by many experts, has been the opposite: for the first time the West is going through a period where the next generation overall will be less well off than their own parents.
And then all of a sudden those who continue to shift all wealth from the 99% to the 1%, through new laws, tell us that "globalization" is the problem here, and that it's all the fault of poor and developing countries "stealing" our jobs?
How could anybody fall for this propaganda?
8
Trump’s “winning” of “deals” with global trading powers are as real as floors 59 through 68 of Trump Tower.
3
@RH
Don't forget Trump's book The Art of the Deal was ghost written.
It wasn't checked for spelling, punctuation and grammar. It was edited for content.
It was written entirely by some else.
Who could possibly sit down and read his gibberish for more than 2 minutes?
His "deals" are as fake as he is. He thinks because he pronounces something a success it actually is. The art of his deals ended up in bankruptcy court.
4
Maybe we should stop electing Republican presidents who failed at business:
GWB - had repeated failures in the oil business.
DJT - well, where do we even start...
If the GOP thinks that the government should be run like a business (it shouldn't), how about at least nominating candidates who were actually **successful business people**??
9
@Mikeweb
In that case, it should at least be a small business leader, not a billionaire, because it's small businesses that create most jobs today.
And it's small businesses who might still see their employees as capital to invest in, rather than "spending" that should be reduced as much as possible in order to increase the company's stocks just a little bit more, as most larger corporate CEO's main job is today.
Being highly effective at increasing your Wall Street stocks through trying to force workers to become as poor as possible is NOT exactly the kind of experience required to become a great American leader ...
Politics is essentially community organizing (THAT is why Obama has been so successful during his first two years in office, contrary to Trump): know how to bring people together in such a way that as a society, we live together in peace, and can thrive all while becoming a more perfect union.
Those are practical skills, inspired by real moral values.
Most business people today don't even know what that means, let alone are experts in it ...
5
@Ana Luisa
100% Spot on.
2
I hadn’t heard Nancy Pelosi’s crack about NAFTA, and I treasure it. Thanks.
5
I can' think of one thing we know about Trump today that we didn't know in 2016. It was not like his history was cloistered or mysterious.
If I've read once, I've read hundreds of times that everyone in New York knows what kind of person Donald Trump is. Yet the leading New York paper of record did not see fit to warn the rest of the country of a megalomaniac who probably would continue to operate like he has done for nearly 50 years - laying waste to most everything and everyone he's touched.
Trump has limited education, absolutely no government experience, no understanding of national security or international trade agreements. He doesn't understand basic macroeconomics, let alone corporate finance and investments. He's a delusional blowhard that peddles in real estate - badly!
Trump's past dealings with the Russian oligarchs and the Saudis, and his interactions with Manafort, Cohen, and Corsi were all reported prior to 2016. And like his father, Trump has been a rabid racist and xenophobe. And, of course, last but not least, he's been routinely exposed as a congenital liar, a conman who can't be trusted.
He's now an illegitimate president "without a clue" and a clear and present danger to the country and many would say the world! Never should have happened!
11
@OldLiberal
I keep getting stuck on the fact that he got the Balkans and the Baltic states mixed up and accused the leaders of the Baltic States with breaking up Yugoslavia. In any other job he would be fired. How is it that the US is stuck with a man who is so uninformed?
3
@OldLiberal
I agree.
I never heard about Trump before he became a birther, and at the time of course didn't take him seriously.
Then he started to run for president, and all of a sudden we had a GOP primary candidate having the guts to criticize the GOP for most of what it had done during the last two decades, and rightly so.
I have to admit that his rhetoric DID make me hope, at the time, that maybe, just maybe, he might be on to something and willing to drastically reform the by then already entirely corrupt GOP.
He didn't. And now, after two years of info about his previous life, I finally see why.
Should I have informed myself better? Of course. So that I've been so mistaken is first of all my fault.
But could the media have done a better job at informing people? Yes, without any doubt.
3
@OldLiberal Some of us knew it in the 80's and before and we did try to warn you. His trump university scam was in the news shortly before he announced his run for president, because he was ordered by a federal judge to reimburse the people he scammed. He bragged on "Access Hollywood" of his abuse of women and teenage girls...etc., etc., etc.
2
How can you doubt the judgement of our own Very Stable Genius?
2
Paul, try these headlines in the future.."Creature from the junk bond lagoon" and "Art of the skim"...
5
Tariff Man -- HA!
I bet the Chinese are tarrified.
NOT!
2
This is what 21st Century Neo-Fascism looks like. A major political party that preened for decades about its Conservative principles instantly transforms itself into an ultra-loyal personal guard to an irresponsible, ignorant bigot and supports literally any position or outrage that he makes. This will not turn out well for this nation and will take a couple of decades to repair
11
Trump seeming has always been about the win.
He doesn't care how he gets that win; even if it means chopping off his head, a win is a win.
He's a salesman.
To me, that means con artist.
This is all he knows.
It pains me that many of his supporters will just agree with him just for the sake of agreeing with him, even if that 'agreeing' causes them to go down the road to hell.
One must always willing to concede that that 'but' ones hears, is a clue to ask, 'what if'.
3
Yes and no. Yes, people are fed up with “free trade”, and “globalization” has failed all but a tiny elite. No, tariffs imposed for perceived violations of the very “free trade” system that people object are not going to fix the problem.
The twentieth century was a lesson in how industrial production of all commodities, from harvesting fish to building cars, can have dramatic negative impact on communities far removed from that production. Nor are the benefits of that production shared with the affected communities. We learned that only through the passage of laws could we ensure that the harms were accounted for by the producers and the benefits shared by all who bore the burden. “Globalization” and “free trade” is nothing but an end run around those communities protecting themselves.
Why is it “free trade” to demand that producers abroad honor our intellectual property laws but “protectionism” to require them to honor our laws that protect workers and the environment?
The answer to that is the answer to why “Tariff Man” has no support for his tariffs from the working class.
It amazes me that so many have no idea how capitalism works.
@Randolph Rhett
She was arrested because of apparent violation of the new Iran sanctions that are wanted by only Trump and Israel. The intellectual theft accusations and American-China trade issues are being linked to this which seems dangerous to me.
Actually the future of world trade and all it implies for the world economy lies with the Republican leadership in Congress who could remove Trump from office anytime they want, but won’t because he owns their ignorant base, and serving the billionaire donors with tax cuts and packing the courts with right wing wacko judges is way more important to them.
4
Actually the future of world trade and all it implies for the world economy lies with the Republican leadership in Congress who could remove Trump from office anytime they want, but won’t because he owns their ignorant base.
3
Mr. Krugman, as usual, makes sense. But every time I read him I ask Where were you when we needed you, Paul? He despises trump as any right-thinking person would, but does not recognize that the Democratic Party as presently constituted and led is not a party for the people, but largely represents special interests. Hillary was supported by him despite the fact only Bernie Sanders represented the interests of the people, and Mr. Krugman knew it. If another Clinton-Obama candidate is offered up by the Democratic Party, even if he or she wins, they will merely be set-up person for another trump, or worse.
1
@JFP
Can you please explain what exactly in Hillary's campaign platform did NOT "represent the interests of the people"?
And how does Obamacare, which saves an additional HALF A MILLION American lives a decade, somehow does NOT serve those interests ... ?
The problem with part of the progressives in their country is what Saul Alinsky already called "political illiteracy": the idea that real, radical, lasting, non-violent democratic change somehow would not be step-by-step change, where each and every step needs a hard fight and results in the next compromise, but would rather be entirely possible overnight.
As Bernie just told Stephen Colbert yesterday: today 70% of the American people support Medicare for all. And that, of course, is the result of Obama, Hillary and so many other Democrats (AND Bernie) making sure that universal healthcare remains in the news for a decade already, by constantly campaigning (= informing people) about it all while already laying the foundations for universal healthcare through Obamacare (which allows any state to switch to single payer already today ...).
The only way to fully achieve our goals is to work hard, and to work together, rather than to imagine that if we don't achieve everything overnight, it must be because all politicians are corrupt.
They aren't.
And cynicism never helped us to move forward, remember?
10
I generally agree with the silliness of constantly throwing rocks at Obama, but that 70% support for “Medicare for All,” will last right up to the moment that voters find out what that means.
For openers, it means massive tax increases. No, not 2-4%; try 15-20%. Minimum, especially since you would then have a system in which people don’t pre-pay oremiums for forty or fifty years before they start drawing bennies. And square that, because St. Bernie’s latest is also to get rid of all Medicare’s premiums, co-pays and co-insurances, while adding dental and vision coverage.
Oh, and you’re welcome to talk till you’re blue about how the money’ll be better—it won’t, and the majority of Americans who have big honking subsidies from their employers will go ape at the idea of losing them. Especially to get rationed benefits, which these would have to be.
THEN you have the minor tech detail that 30-40% of Americans will see this as big gov socialism, because it is. Good luck telling docs and nurses that here comes the big pay cuts.
Then, stop already with the fantasy that it’s be cheaper, because waste, fraud and abuse. Half of our health costs, minimum, come from poor diet, lousy exercise, stress, and so on. And from our demands that every brain-crushed preemie and every 90 year old liver cancer patient with Alzheimer’s, gets everything. And our fantasy that fancy pills fix everything.
Our system’s a disgrace. Medicare for All won’t get done, and won’t fix it.
1
@Robert
In real life, most developed economies have a kind of Medicare for all healthcare system.
And guess what? There is LESS poverty and a smaller income gap in those countries than in the US.
The idea that somehow if you take out for profit health insurance, you'd end up paying more rather than less is absurd.
Of course it would mean increasing taxes - most Western countries where ordinary citizens are better off than in the US indeed have higher taxes (especially for the wealthiest citizens ...).
But that would still mean paying LESS, much less for your healthcare than what is the case today.
That is why in most Western countries conservative parties support it too, and wouldn't even think of starting to dismantle it or privatize healthcare once again.
Conclusion: it's not because as soon as a democratically elected government starts passing science-based bills that have been proven to help the 99%, in the US 30% of the people gets "big gov socialism" panic attacks that those spontaneous associations would be somehow based in reality ... ;-)
1
The loose cannon can only roll around on deck for so long before it shoots its own crew.
Trump's idea of managing the economy appears to be to create as many bankrupt casinos as possible, and then walk away.
5
What is the chance that Trump is just a diversion for the right-wing goal of changing the legal structure of the US? Senator McConnell is busy filling the empty judge positions that he actually created with right-wing Federalist Society "robo-judges". Essentially, an individual will no longer have "standing" in the eyes of the law. (Check with Ralph Nader on this.)
The second reason for the Trump presidency is the diminishment of the US as a world leader. Trump is Putin's creation. It is not just the US, their are disruptions around the world. Brexit was not a random spontaneous event. Brazil is a catastrophe. Etc. Coincidence?
4
To quote a prescient Michael Bloomberg's remark about putting Donald Trump in charge of anything economics-related, in Bloomberg's speech at the last Democratic National Convention....
God help us.
7
With the most superficial review, the republican party could have seen what trump is. His behavior for decades has been flimflam and white collar crime. I hold the party of trumputin significantly responsible, especially now that they have doubled down on trump's anti-democratic behavior.
5
The globalization proved good for China who played it unfair not good for the US workers. In Europe where the goverments have much more influence over the economy and private sector played it much better than the US with China. It is difficult to understand how the US governments allowed having such high tariffs on American products in China compared to Europe. Just Europiens played much smarter. Why do people here close their eyes and ears to these logic arguments that something has to be done about the "huge" trade imbalance which not only eliminated jobs but also is strategically unwise? Do we want to be vulnerable toward a totalitarian regime? As much as Trump is imperfect he took an impossible task to fix the trade and make it fair for the US and eliminate China abuses. it might be still too late as none of the former presidents wanted to face this enormous challenge. In the US many who attack Trump want it "all" - industrial pollution in China rather than in the US, cheap labor of illegal immigrants, and good international image of the president good for the world but not necessarily for his own people. Should we close our eyes and pretend that China is our friend? Should we wait till West Europeans wake and realize how dangerous is China? In spite of money being added to their defense they stay anti-American. I wish that people, who want it "all" in US would not destroy Trump or what he started. Your censorship might not publish this comment it is very wrong.
this is pretty much what you'd expect to get from an incurious individual who has been addicted to television fabrications since the 1950s.
I do not believe President Trump is stupid, or even that he is necessarily delusional. but his every word and deed shows that he cannot tell the difference between reality and fantasy, and that alone should be enough to disqualify him for his current job.
Yes, Trump is all of these things, and more (or less?)
And while the president may have extreme control over trade policy, you have to ask (for the millionth time at least), where are Republican legislators and Republican business leaders in all of this? As for the former, collectively they lack the spine of a single salamander. And the latter? They whinge and send out reports and signals but do absolutely nothing else to rein in Trumpist regime.
Hillary's description of Trump followers as a basket of deplorables now seems almost quaint.
4
I never thought we would come to the day that "flailing" would be used to describe the actions of the President of these United States. We have come to that.
2
Executive powers work well for sober rational actors, not so well with a petulant child.
2
At best, conservatism has been a real philosophy, which just like liberalism exists for about 2 centuries now.
Liberalism and conservatism are based on two different conceptions of what it means to be a human being, and for most of the time, science couldn't prove any of them to be right or wrong.
For liberals, who you become, as an individual, is in large part due to the encounters and relationships in your life. Poor or rich, educated or not, religious or not, it all mostly depends on the environment you grew up in and the people you met. Of course, in this conception of mankind identities are never determined once and for all, as you continue to meet people your entire life. Politics, in this kind of philosophy, is a means to change the relationships of people who are suffering, in order to give them more opportunities to grow and thrive. That is then supposed to allow us to obtain a more thriving society as a whole.
Conservatism was a reaction against this philosophy. Anthropologically, it assumes that we're all "atoms", individuals endowed with certain talents at birth, and working hard is supposed to allow you to lead a decent life, unless you have an extraordinary set of talents, and then you'll thrive/become wealthy. As talents are inherited, it's only normal, in this worldview, that wealth is inherited too. Politics is a means to allow the wealthiest to exert their talents freely, which at least "controls" ordinary citizens' passions and installs peace.
1/2
2/2
Historically, conservatism as a philosophy was based on the experience of centuries of European aristocracy.
"Aristos" meaning "the best" in ancient Greek, the idea was that most ordinary citizens didn't have the natural talents needed to lead an entire country to peace and increasing wealth, and that only those born in "good families" had those talents/skills. That's why aristocracies so often rejected democracy in the first place ("mob rule").
Liberals replied that the only reason why indeed many ordinary citizens at the time were totally incapable of leading an entire country efficiently, was precisely because a handful of wealthy families kept them poor and ignorant, and that THAT was actually the biggest threat to homeland security and obtaining a thriving society - whereas wealth doesn't always mean being talented (let alone having your heart at the right place). So the only solution IS a government BY the people, which will allow them to become smarter and wealthier, and as such, over time, obtain a government FOR the people.
Today, however, the GOP lost all confidence in conservative philosophy to still be able to win elections, and THAT is why they're using massive fake news, racism and fake economical/international/immigration crises in order to fire up the base and still win elections, all while making things worse for America as a whole.
Only Democrats are true democrats today. GOP elites now only have money, but no (moral and other) education.
1
First off, Edmund Burke much? As a coherent, named view of the world, conservatism predates liberalism by around seventy years. Second off, liberalism and conservatism share pretty much the identical, humanist view of the unitary subject...the individual, if you prefer. Neither’s David Hume and any bundle theory. It’s Trilling’s “Sincerity and Authenticity,” if you really want to understand the two views.
Like many, you’ve got liberalism confused with far more-radical theories, those mapped out by Marx, Freud and others.
By the way, the secret word isn’t “politics.” It’s “capitalism.” And Trump’s neither a conservative nor a liberal: he’s a radical nationalist, trying to get in front of markets and stop them.
Good luck, Don.
PS: checked Wikipedia, and I see your problem. Gawdaful entry on liberalism. The writers literally projected John Stuart Mill and Gladstone backwards, figuring that because we ‘d now call the ideas liberal, Locke et al were liberals. They also misused quotes in a hilariously-dumb fashion: liberal in the sense of “open-handed,” and even “profligate” isn’t at all what liberalism is.
What they MEAN, is “humanism,” empiricism, the social contract, communism, stuff like that. Fer crying out loud, they stuck HOBBES in the liberal camp! Nor were Burke (a Tory, not a member of a “Conservative Party,” that did not yet exist) et al responding to “liberalism,” but to the English and French radical revolutions. And no, Jefferson et al were not liberals; they were Enlightenment types, middle-class men who wanted a middle-class revolution against monarchy.
Literally, you’re doing what Sean Hannity does: moosh liberal and radical together. Liberalism is a political and intellectual movement that really appears after the Civil War, and speaks for political, social and economic ideas that are actually well-illustrated by guys like Lionel Trilling and Paul Krugman.
I like to think of Trump as a petulant little 3 year old, given to tantrums, living in the candy aisle of the local supermarket. Mommy won't constrain him, rather she gives in to whatever he wants to grab from the shelves and throws on the basket, in hopes that he won't make a scene. If he were a character in Willy Wonka (Gene Wilder edition) he'd play Feruca, whose dad ran a factory and stopped production so all workers could tear apart cases and cases of Wonka Bars to find a golden ticket, at the demand of Feruca. I think Feruca departed the show when diagnosed as a "bad egg".
1
What a sorry situation. We have a President who is doing things to destabilize the world economy either because he is inept or because what he is doing is helping his own selfish business interests.
2
I wonder when the Dollar Store and other places where my neighbors go to shop will close due to lack of merchandise to sell. Do they even realize where all that “stuff” comes from? Do they know how huge the country is and how many smart people live there? I don’t believe Trump worshipers know anything about the World. I visited China many years ago and met some of the friendliest, most industries fellow humans ever. No, they didn’t live or act exactly like we do. However, they worked hard and wanted a happy, healthy family..just like most Americans. And, there were an awfully lot of them. The World does not belong to us. It’s time to wake up!
3
The Trade war is not about trade it is about exemptions to what ever tariffs Trump arbitrarily imposes. Those who kiss the ring of the King and curry favor with his Majesty at the court of Mar a lago, receive exemptions and the King receives financial and emotional support, It is grifting in plain sight.
3
It’s even more astonishing to me at this point how most Americans could not know nothing. Maybe we talk too much about it.
"But that toughening should be undertaken in concert with other nations that also suffer from Chinese misbehavior, and it should have clear objectives."- Yes this would be the intelligent approach. It boggles my mind how any American citizen could have witnessed the Trump campaign and thought this man could manage a lemonade stand? Was it not obvious he lacked intellect? Anyone with such racist ideology in 2018 I immediately discredit as a bit slow. Trump is a spoiled rich brat with a personality disorder who has never achieved much success outside of glossy promotions and financial shell games. The reason you have close administration allies writing memos that they manage the situation as adults in the room is because Trump needs supervision in the same way you would help navigate a 6 year old at Disney Land. It's a moment by moment process of calming him down and pointing him in the right direction. Our country and economic policy are managed by Trumps thoughtless emotional whims. Frightening! The issue with Harely Davidson alone should have informed most of America Trumps plan was poorly constructed. I am so grateful Larry Kudlow is there to save the day. (sarcasm)
3
To balance this article, I wish you would have written about the arrest of Huawei's CFO for violating trade sanctions with Iran as an example of getting reasonably tough with China.
@ECE
Except that it's Trump who installed those sanctions, and for no good reason at all, whereas the entire world except for corrupt Bibi and Saudi Arabia's dictator disagrees ...
"Getting tough with China" isn't some kind of game, you need real experts to understand WHAT will have a real influence on China.
Starting to do business in their backyard, as the TTP did, is an example of real influence.
Unilaterally tweeting insults and then withdrawing from an important international nuclear agreement for no good reason is not, of course.
3
When this "presidency" is all said and done, what will really chap the Trump support is the realization that an African American excelled at ALL levels as compared to their reality president.
But really, who will care what they think. They are in the way of our conutry's progress and either need to get on the train or out of the way.
2
Your reference to “1984” (“We have always been in a trade war with Eastasia.”) neatly underscores Trump’s Orwellian use of language to control us: his constant double-speak nullifies criticism and makes it very difficult to develop a focused opposition to his self-described reality.
1
Why all the complaining? As the president noted his approval rating would be 75% if it wasn't for the Russian 'thing'. And if he would have gotten that Repub operative from NC to run the poll, his approval rating would easily have been 105-110%.
2
I much preferred it when it was merely his hair that was "completely fabricated then grossly exaggerated.”
5
We have a president whose only talent regarding international trade is to pump up a core group of angry white voters who believe that anything done in Washington is designed to cheat them.
We have a president whose only interest in international trade is how any deal profits him personally.
No wonder that every time Donald Trump opens his mouth, our allies shudder and financial markets head south
2
Oh come on now, does one think this guy has any sense of
making a deal?
Did his base think the great Con was looking out for them?
Remember this brat , never had to share anything in his life, nor did he ever have to work for anything.
Case in point his daddy made sure he had enough lawyers and money so when, his companies folded he could claim bankruptcy
and and stiff the hardworking people out of their jobs and money
owed them
Tell which companies are still running? Only those he wants for himself!
3
Someone asked Trump to use "tariff" in a sentence and look what happened...
3
Trump is a con man. The art of the con is to always leave the sucker thinking he is a winner.
2
There is only one solution, remove trump from office, if need be by a coup.
3
The Donald’s reputation as a negotiator has been built on lying, cheating, threatening and litigating his opponents into submission. Now he’s taking that same show on the road to foreign countries. Yes, some of these countries are themselves bad actors. But why would anyone at a negotiating table believe anything Trump says? He lies naturally about things big and small, and the combination of his ignorance, arrogance, and mendacity make him - and by extension the U.S. - an unreliable and untrustworthy partner in any deal.
427
@Dee Ann
Dr. Krugman still says it best: ignorant, volatile and delusional.
Though I might shuffle the order a bit. Then I'd throw in for good measure - liar, cheater and Carnival Barker.
I'd call him a mendacious miscreant but I don't believe he understands words an 8 year old would. :-)
38
@Dee Ann
Well-said. And you can bet that the Chinese leadership knows how he works and how to push his buttons.
37
@Dee Ann
I always think it's important to point out that it was NBC that did the work of selling Donald Trump as a competent business person. They did so knowing that it was nonsense. And they continued to do so after he started his career as fascist conspiracy theorist.
24
I'm a little unclear on the meaning of the sentence "The U.S. system then became the template for global...", as nobody else really has your kind of executive branch.
The leader of the lead party in the rep-by-pop legislature is pretty much Da Boss in every other major trading nation. We avoid pork (when we can) by party discipline - yours is also the only legislature where one can vote against party and have a career the next day.
Trump has highlighted the big weakness in the American constitution; the rest of us had the legislature vs the King, and as democracy slowly gained all the legitimate power, we never saw a need for a king-like office except as a ceremonial icon for the nation. America, fighting a King, still in 1776 thought nations needed Kings for a role, and so gave America one - complete with royal palace, his own anthem, the "presidential seal", and other royalty-like trappings - but above all, various dictatorial powers. The notion was that elections would ensure he was always a Good King, assisted by Electoral College rules that keep yahoos from picking him.
Now its finally sinking in what a bad idea any dictatorial powers area, concentrated in one seat.
@roy brander
I don't see anything suggesting dictatorial powers for the president, in the Constitution.
And even when it comes to trade agreements, Congress still has to approve, remember? So a president who's truly ignorant may mess around for a couple of years without engaging Congress, as Trump is doing now, but in a democracy he can be voted out fast enough to not inflict massive local and global damage for decades and decades.
The main problem that led us to where we are today is the Supreme Court Citizens United ruling, which allows for unlimited campaign donations. That's how the GOP became totally corrupt, and that, together with Fox News' 24/7 fake news propaganda, allowed them to control the government even though a majority opposes corruption.
I don't have anything against kingdoms (constitutional democratic monarchies, with mainly ceremonial and uniting responsibilities), but I don't see how a kingdom in itself could have prevented a Trump as Prime Minister, for instance, once campaign finance laws allow for corruption to such a huge extent?
1
@roy brander The electoral college was meant to give a few less-populated states a somewhat equal say in the presidential election by giving them extra weight. That was back in the day when these few were mostly farming states.
It is a mechanism that has overstayed its "fairness" role in our election system.
1
@Ana Luisa:
If you can dictate anything and nobody at all has power to countermand you, that's dictatorial power over THAT thing. I'm not sure what more needs to be said than "sole authority to launch a nuclear attack". But then there's appointing agency heads, pardons, and...there's a whole wikipedia page on it.
The difference with a Prime Minister is that the party can remove him/her at any time. A Canadian Nixon would have been out six weeks after the Watergate burglaries hit the news, was our estimate at the time.
The party routinely throws leaders under the bus when they become a problem for the party. See "Thatcher, Margaret".
Parliaments still have "dictatorship", but it's dictatorship of many people who head up the Party and can whip the votes of the rest of it. It's not all concentrated on one guy, who can't be removed without enormous effort. Having to even get consensus of as many people as fit around a boardroom table is a hugely moderating influence on demagogues. The others around the table have to inherit the party after the current administration, whereas an American President can afford to burn a lot of bridges after that second election.
I don't think the billionaire-donors were big Trump fans or a deciding factor in 2016; America's other unique circumstance is the White Evangelicals, who are attracted to his open racism and support him at the 81% level. Other nations don't have that voting bloc.
1
The President is doing a great job, of wiping out small business in the Midwest. The magnitude of the effect one narcissist can have on 25 to 30 years of the hard work involved to develop a significant soybean trade with a major trading partner such as China is almost impossible to comprehend.
Agriculture gives definition to the term "small business." So many small business plans are going up in smoke just so mr. trump can play his newest brand of reality politics. In my decades I've witnessed many a slow moving train wreck. I just can't fathom the idea that this administration went off the cliff Jan. 2017 and could still, to this day, be gaining speed on the way down.
5
Thank you for explaining how Trump has this near dictatorial power over trade. Isn't it time to more narrowly define "security interest" and "unfair foreign practices" or give the Congress some check on how these presidential loopholes are used. I know. It can't happen while Trump is in power. Just saying.
3
Interstate commerce in the US works because the Congress has Constitutional power to make laws about things that affect it, which is increasingly, just about everything. International trade is a mess because no one has the power to make laws about things that affect it, which is just about everything.
Without worldwide government, there cannot be worldwide trade. That's a relatively new development, because there were technological obstacles to the volume of trade. But those have been overcome. Now, the world is pretty much where the US would have been without the commerce clause. (Anyone remember the Article of Confederation)
This is not a plea for worldwide government. It is, rather, a defense of tariffs aimed at making it unprofitable for our trading partners to race to the bottom. Yes, tariffs are a tax on us, but so is OSHA, which raises the price of things that could be made more cheaply by endangered workers. Letting twelve-year-olds work would lower prices, too, and the old sign "If you don't come in Sunday, don't come in Monday" could save us all a bundle, too.
Unfortunately, this core problem of international trade requires the light of reason, but our president is equipped only with the blowtorch of machismo. Still, we should not let how badly he is dealing with the problem obscure how important and profound it is.
2
The irony is that President Trump could accomplish many of his goals by imposing a carbon footprint value added tax. This would have the advantages of making imported goods more expensive (the transportation CO2 bill alone would do that), make American goods more attractive (lower transportation, lower power plant emissions), and raising revenue to close his deficit while helping to make the US a leader in reducing carbon emissions. But since he doesn't believe that global warming has a man made component that win-win solution will elude him.
8
Not only are we getting taxed by tariffs on foreign goods but US businesses are raising their prices for goods that compete with the new higher tariffed foreign goods.
4
Paul Krugman is a ray of light in an otherwise dark economic world these days: he can put complicated topics like international trade and "protective tarriffs" in such lucid prose that I can see them clearly. True, I've studied math, economics, and architecture myself so I have some foundation. He stands out among economists because he can writes so cogently.
He is one of the beacons to lead us out of this darkness. The longeer Donald Trump remains on what he perceives as his throne, the more financial danger every resident and worker of the United States is in. I hope enough Republicans will realize that his rule is not in their long term interests to make some changes soon - whether legislatively, through impeachment (if justified), and through diplomatic compromise with Democrats. Americans are exhausted by having been manipulated by Republicans for so many years - even during the Obama years. It's time for us to draw closer together to compete in a modern world and reduce the level of rudeness and violence among ourselves.
One of the key components of democracy - the right of the governed to vote fairly - has been traded off for a small group of very wealthy people to hold an enormous amount of power. We must fix this - soon.
10
The analysis, as usual, is acute, imaginative, and funny. However, there's no punch line. We are left, as usual, with the thought that Trump is president and there's nothing we can do.
Not so! Once the Democratic House comes to order in January, it should swiftly vote for sanctions against Saudi Arabia, as the Senate is already ready to do. That would force the president to do the right thing – use his trade authority to protect our national security, and redeem our leadership role as a democracy, dedicated to the rule of law.
3
It’s well past time we all got past the notion that Donald Trump “has,” to do a blessed thing. One doesn’t, if one simply doesn’t know or doesn’t care what the law, the Constitution, democratic traditions, common sense, or anything else have to say.
And if you think Mitch McConnell’s Senate is gonna corral this clown, well....
1
@Robert I have faith that Nancy Pelosi's House will give mitch and his Senate cohorts a run for their koch money.
1
Trump understands nothing about many things. However, when it comes to economics, Trump is not alone in his ignorance. True, it is a complex topic, but we should expect that the administration and elected representatives have real knowledge about the decisions they make affecting the economy. On the other hand, because economics is so complex, ordinary citizens do not understand it on a grand scale, but they do understand how well or not well they are doing. Right now, Trump supporters point to low unemployment and, until the last few weeks, a booming stock market as indicators of the success of his policies. It will take an economic downturn--a real, palpable, even painful result--before those people will acknowledge they are bad policies. That is, unless Trump persuades them that it is Obama's or Clinton's fault.
4
Trade/Tariffs and then all the policies that congress writes that benefit the corporations and taxpayers foot the bill.
NAFTA devastated Mexican farmers pushing them to border town and entering US illegally with the help of coporations wanting cheap labor.
The winner Big Agriculture who threw Mexicans and American smaller farmers under the bus.
Weren't there subsidies to American manufactures that went overseas and built factories?? that gave away our technology in order to get no regulations and slave labor?
So so much more to trade then what Krugman discusses.
2
It’s good to be reminded that leftish folks may also be guilty of profound willful ignorance. Quick primer on capitalism, okay?
Capitalism expands, by its nature. It can expand by creating new products and upgrading the old, by developing new markets at home, or by developing new markets abroad. More recently, capitalism seems able to expand by creating new financial instruments that are pretty much disconnected from labor—which suits the society of the spectacle.
That’s the straight Marxist skinny, okay? It has the advantage of being true. But since capitalism ain’t going anywhere any time soon, the only serious questions have to do with regulation, and helping workers uprooted by Schumpeter’s “creative destruction.”
That’s where trade pacts like NAFTA and orgs like the WTO come in. Sorry you dislike, but fact is, their kind of regulation and wrangling and economic warfare beats REAL warfare all hollow. And when you have isolated nations fighting over economics in an unregulated environment...
By the way, do the leftish up Portland way ever worry about how much their isolationism and protectionism look like Trump’s?
Earth to media, you cannot believe a word
this man says about anything. His word
is worthless.
DUH
9
Please promise you will use "Rebel without a clue" as an article title. Oh My
6
Just finished Fear by Woodruff. It seems everyone on his staff lives to fence him in, he is so incompetent and ignorant. They almost have him convinced on an issue - he is uneducable - and he does a quick 180 when they’re not looking. It sounds very chaotic and unpredictable. I think he’s listening to Putin behind everyone’s back, getting a little kickback for screwing things up. As long as some money is coming in, I don’t think he cares what the source is. As he told someone who asked if he was concerned about the ballooning deficit, “I won’t be here then, so who cares?”
9
In a normal world, the GOP would represent the interests of its traditional constituencies and put the brakes on this lunatic president. You'll have to ask Mitch McConnell why this isn't happening. But it certainly looks like a naked power trip; damn the consequences.
9
@Frank Ever see a picture of a traditional harvest where the main line of farm workers goes through a field and harvest a crop? They are followed by a line of "gleaners" picking up what was missed. Mitch McConnell "gleans" behind the trumpite grifters, little noticed, picking up what was missed and enriching himself in the process.
4
This is reality, not reality TV, so you don't get the last word just because you are the star of the show. So either the wannabe wheeler dealer is getting played or else what is happening was explained by Prof. Krugman in a previous column. The actual goal is to make the U.S. tax system more regressive through the back door. If the Republicans wanted to replace the income tax with a value added tax like many countries have, they would have to put that regressive idea up for debate. But if they do it by having an idiotic president impose tariffs on everyone, they can pretend to complain about it while still slashing income taxes for the rich and getting the equivalent of a national sales tax on consumers. Is this what is really happening? Call the Deep State and get back to me....
3
James Madison, a brilliant cynic, was prescient when observing that you will not always have George Washington sitting in that chair, but I doubt even cynical Jamie, in his wildest dreams, could have foreseen Trump. The point being that granting broad executive power fine when FDR is sitting in that chair but those trade powers now in the hands of this nightmare. Scary.
8
"But that toughening should be undertaken in concert with other nations that also suffer from Chinese misbehavior, and it should have clear objectives."
Oh, you mean like the TPP? Trump really, really doesn't understand trade.
Trade isn't really what Trump supporters are angry about though. Globalization is a contributing factor but the real problem we're facing is the death of the middle class.
There are increasingly few opportunities between poverty-wage employee and college educated professional. If you're over 50, forget about it. You bleed savings until social security kicks-in and then languish in near destitution.
Tariffs certainly aren't going to solve the problem. Republicans had an opportunity to address middle class distress with tax cuts. They ended up punishing the successful middle class and insulting everyone else down the ladder.
We now live in largely service oriented economy. That's fair. Employees need to learn service. However, we need to ditch the trickle-down notion entirely. All we've seen for the past 40 years is hoover-up. If you can solve wealth inequality and economic insecurity, no one is going to care whether China is stealing our intellectual property or not. Trade wars are a red herring.
5
@Andy If you’re worried about the uneducated and low skilled, do something about that. We need a better educated and trained work force to produce high value goods and services. Businesses will not take on that role. Government must. Tariffs won’t do a thing for American workers.
4
All that China - or any country - needs to do is say something that allows Trump to go on television announcing another "deal" that he has won. Then they can go back to their bad behavior, build more missiles, torture protestors, kill journalists, and jail political opponents without any concern that we will oppose them. China does not need to actually change what they are doing. They just need to give Trump the chance to say he has forced them to negotiate.
It is all appearance, smoke, and mirrors that concerns Trump. There is no substance in the GOP anymore.
Trump and the GOP have only one belief: that they are entitled to power and privilege.
8
Mr. Krugman, You shouldn't be so hard on poor president Trump. He doesn't intentionally lie about how great everything has become under his administration because he wants to deceive the American voter. He is just so delusional he believes whatever he would like to believe regardless of what reality might be. Yes Donald Trump is delusional and narcissistic (a bad combination); that is quite evident to a majority of Americans and the rest of the world. But how to explain all those Republicans and MAGA-hat wearers who also believe Trump's delusions? Maybe it's the result of all of those fracking chemicals that have gotten into our drinking water.
9
Dr K, I might point out that the real problem with US Trade policy is that it, like most US law, is dictated by special interests. By statute, Commerce is not allowed to study the economic effects of a proposed tariff. I work in the steel business and our trade policy has inflated US domestic steel prices, thus killing off small businesses that manufacture products from the protected steel.
I can sell a European made finished fastener to a US distributor cheaper than I can sell the raw material used to make it.
Even one as ignorant as The Donald can see that our trade policy makes no sense.
4
When I was in grade school, every boy carried a small pouch in his pocket, his personal treasure trove of marbles. At recess, circles were drawn in the dirt of the schoolyard and the games began. Each player anted a marble into the circle and then took turns trying knock these bits of glass outside the ring with their favorite "shooter." If you accomplished this feat the displaced marble went into your pouch. You never anted your shooter. If you lusted after another player's shooter, you had to negotiate with him for it, offering some or several of the contents of your stash as payment. Of course, the other player could decline the trade or could, if interested, counter by asking that one or more un-tendered orbs be substituted or included in the swap.
This is where most of the men of my (and, therefore, Trump's) generation learned trade and negotiation: with your friends. You wanted to keep your favorite marbles but you also wanted to keep your friends. It was --almost by definition and necessity-- a win-win game.
I do believe Donald J. Trump never played marbles in his life.
14
@Glen Actually, I suspect he did and lost his, never to be found again.
4
@Glen - And never had a dog as a kid, which is all you need to know about him.
2
@Glen: Interesting idea, but I wonder if he lost his marbles and friends in the schoolyard and never quite recovered. Maybe that's why he became a bully and a wheeler-dealer wannabe?
2
"No, they aren’t taxes on foreigners, they’re taxes on our own consumers.".
That is what the red hatted Trump supporters fail to understand-that additional spending money they may (or may not) realize from the Grand Trump Tax Reform Scam will be consumed by the war on trade conducted by a bankruptcy king.
Trump may have been able to browbeat his contractors, suppliers and workers into giving up their positions during contractual payment issues, but, dealing on an international stage is much different and he is a blatant rookie.
We will see if his methods work or will just be more hot air coming from a bombastic fool. I believe the latter.
5
@Dan
Easy Dan, the hot air he emits effects not only the global
warming, it affects the global stock markets.
What Deficit??
Does anyone else find it hilarious that the American stock market gyrates like a seismograph mid-earthquake in response to things Donald Trump says? Surely by now even the most naive among us realizes that Trump lies constantly? Any single thing that this man says or tweets is without meaning, because the veracity of his every statement is in doubt.
12
@Rob: Retirees can't laugh about the market gyrations. I was happy to see that JP Morgan has cautioned clients that Trump's claims about China "seem if not completely fabricated then grossly exaggerated.”
4
Henceforth, I'm going to replace "willy-nilly" with "trumpy-dumpy" to describe a haphazard, scattershot approach to things. He doesn't have a clue what he's doing, yet he persists in his efforts to micromanage our economy, and the results have already been disastrous for many sectors with untold consequences to come.
9
Maybe trump's just Putin's "asset" working to weaken and destroy our alliances.
In that case, his actions make sense.
3
I am one of many Canadians who watched the agonizing negotiations between our two countries on the modernization of NAFTA. We were threatened, bullied, and treated like the enemy as Trump muscled his way in at every opportunity for the “win”. In the end, he got his dog and pony show in Buenos Aires which was cringe-worthy as they signed the deal. Even sitting beside your president made both Trudeau and Nieto uncomfortable, but they did it for their countries and their economies, so essentially tied to the US, but the goodwill is gone.
Even after signing the new NAFTA, the tariffs on our aluminum and steel on Canada still stand, harming both economies because your president does not grasp how tariffs work.
He is a one-man wrecking ball, simple as that, and worse he thinks he's a genius!
20
The term "team player" comes to mind after reading Mr. Krugman's piece. Not only is Trump clueless when it comes to dealing in international affairs, especially trade policy, but he is also so in terms of working as a team.
His gut as proclaimed by him makes his decisions for him. Near as I can tell all his gut is good for is containing large amounts of clueless fat.
6
"So the future of world trade, with all it implies for the world economy, now hinges largely on Donald Trump’s mental processes. That is not a comforting thought."
It's doubly not comforting because despite Mr. Trump's claim, his mental processes are not stable.
But don't place all the blame on Donald Trump. Don't forget, he would not be in the position to destroy the American economy if it had not been for Republicans in Congress and their voters.
5
Trump has obvious mental / ego-mania problems, but the Republicans enabling him to set up the economy for a fail, along with doing all they can to undermine democracy (see power grabs in MI and WI) are the real traitors to our way of life. Vote them out.
6
Trump, the supposedly artful dealmaker, is really a chump, not only on trade but in just about everything he touches. His tariffs on steel and aluminum have cost many more American jobs than those saved. His Singapore summit with Kim Jong-un did not curb North Korea's nuclear program but actually accelerated it. His tax cuts balooned our deficit without raising wages. His trade war with China has unsettled the stock market and increased the threat of recession. He moved our embassy to Jerusalem without getting any concesssions from Netanyahu on halting Jewish settlement building or other steps to make peace with the Palestinians. His bromance with Putin has weakened NATO, alienated Europe and made us an international laughing stock. By condoning the Saudi crown prince's murder of Khashoggi, he has further destabilized the Middle East. And by tearing up the Iran nuclear deal he has strengthened the mullahs and weakened the moderates in Tehran.
7
"...and who can’t even give an honest account of what went down in a meeting." says it all Dr Krugman. He is unfettered by normal adherence to truth and reason. He wants to be impressed with his own actions and decisions.
2
@RioConcho
Exactly! China had to confirm their was a 90day hold off on tariffs because no one believed Dumbo or the WH enablers. So, the US is in the hands of China. Great!
1
"Trade wars are good, and easy to win." -- Donald J. Trump
Right now, Trump is proving that trade wars are good, and easy to win--for China.
5
You can see what is going on in france low wages high prices tax cuts for the rich=rioting in the street.How long until it happens here?MAke america great,get rid of trump
3
Canada was one of the lowest tariffs* of major nations in the world. Perhaps we could set up free trade zones on Canada's Pacific Coast and let our neighbors to the north handle our trade negotiations and the resulting agreements. See: Oh, Canada.. where's my check?
++++++
Weighted mean applied tariff. See: Investopedia.
1
@HLB Engineering "has" for "was" above. Apologies.
1
Donald Trump presides over over an "Idiotocracy", a new form of government that operates on the whim of an unintelligent, impulsive leader.
4
The future of world trade depends upon the mental processes of trump?
Bob Mueller, please hurry up.
5
@Robert FL "Like Santa, please.. Bobby don't be late."
2
Bravo, pure and simple.
2
Well said Dr. Krugman.
2
Stop blaming Trump.....he is simply a spoiled child....looking for affection....Time to attack and attack and attack Ryan, McConnell and their sycophants......they are the real responsible and irresponsible....and the GOP jokers like Collins and company. In Canada and Europe, all of them will not be able to walk in the street.....Time to have people pay for being chicken, no spine. If not, our children will start a French Revolution.....it seems that the new generation has more stomach than us...
6
You mention the Brexit vote along with the election of Trump. Mueller's investigation has proven that the Russians seriously attempted to influence the election of Trump, What I can't fathom is why the Brits have not done the same investigation--at the same level--to determine the Russian effect on the Brexit vote. I would say that Brexit is a bigger win for Putin than Trump since we can kick Trump out in a couple of yeas.
4
It seems that TPP would have given the US president the vehicle to exert concerted, international pressure on China...
6
Trump swaggers down the street declaring, "There's a new Tariff in town."
Novelty, disruption, and enemies that he can have his reality show downs with define his approach. This doesn't only lack nuance, knowledge, experience and expertise on international trade deals but around the edges of his foreign policy and fiscal policy is absolute personal corruption--trademarks for his daughter, financing for his son-in-law, profits for himself.
His boasts about reducing the trade deficit are laughingly upside down. Attempting to coerce businesses and other nations to do his will has them running circles around him. Farmers, businessmen, and manufacturers are suffering as is the environment.
High Noon and the bad guys just shot the Tariff.
5
Random thought. What does game theory look like if one of the players is assumed to be DJT?
11
@Paul Sitz Cluelessness, nefariousness, or apathy often results in winning moves. See: "Some rise by sin, and some by virtue fall." {Will the Bard}
@Paul Sitz: The game will add up to zero, with Trump declaring victory in the ruins.
1
"When trying to make deals, he seems to care only about whether he can claim a “win,” not about substance."
He can't escape his limited world view as a real estate agent. In it, any transaction is a "win" if the agent earns a commission.
11
@Joe C.
And then it became even worse, once he went on to his reality tv show to hire and fire the people the show's producer told him to hire and fire on camera.
THAT's where his obsession with "ratings" clearly comes from - and for the exact same reason as what you're reminding here about real estate: the higher the show's ratings, the more money he has, the more gold he can buy.
So he'll tweet and say whatever is necessary to make his voter base believe that he's great - no matter how much saying things like that effectively destroy America's greatness.
1
Sometimes luck counts more than smarts. So far Trump has been very lucky. Half way. Here is to luck, may it be a lady to Trump.
President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Chinese goods will not reduce U.S. trade imbalances and are unlikely to be positive for the U.S. economy.
Tariffs work by shifting income between different sectors of the economy and, in this way, change a country’s savings rate.
China runs a surplus with the United States not because Americans love cheap Chinese goods. It runs a surplus with the United States because China implemented policies that reduced the share of income Chinese workers received and caused business profits to soar.
This effectively represented a transfer of wealth from ordinary Chinese households, which consume most of their income, to businesses and their wealthy owners, who consume very little of their income.
Tariffs only affect the trade balance to the extent that they alter the relationship between domestic savings and domestic investment. They work in some cases but don’t work in others.
In the United States, tariffs are unlikely to have an effect on the trade deficit because the relationship between domestic savings and domestic investment is determined by foreign capital inflows, which are themselves determined by the need for foreigners to park their excess savings in a safe haven.
As long as its capital markets remain wholly open, the US cannot even take steps to reduce its trade deficit except by making it harder, for investors to bring money into the United States.
2
Paul you bring up some interesting points, first you say “ labor does not support a “ trade war or tariffs” , my question is who represents “ labor”, working men and women today, no one that I can see, Unions have been decimated. Im not talking about teachers unions etc. that control huge pension funds, they seem to be some sort of hybrid between Uber high paid management and Wall Street, not representative of the rank and file. The other point which you and many other economists point out is “ tariffs are a tax on the consumer” that sounds like a comment right out of a Wall Street boardroom or a Milton Friedman point of light that shareholders by extension should be put ahead of the workers. You along with most present day economists except Reich and Steiglitz need to study Henry Ford, he was seemingly the last guy that understood you have to pay your workers enough to buy their own products, your premise and reasoning that the cheapest labor, allowing the cheapest prices for the consumer is some how a panacea for the workers wages (America or Europe) being forced down, I don’t care how cheap something is if folks have no jobs nor discretionary income they still can’t buy those cheap goods from China, hence we find ourselves in this “race to the bottom” as a direct result of such thinking and economic theory rather than an approach demonstrating an acquaintance with real people and real life, I contend it’s much better to pay our people more and buy a little less.
4
I cannot believe that after 685 days of this President the level of Trump’s sloth and ignorance can still surprise me.
612
@MomT I’m feeling a constant kind of nausea from his shameful behavior. We must effectively remove him from the free population. He is wicked and destructive, not just to the USA, but the entire world order. So many errant behavioral problems it’s hard to chronicle all of them, but he’s impulsive, delusional, a compulsive liar, volatile. Time to impeach for all of his crimes, then turn him over to the Southern District of NYC for further prosecution. His enablers and sycophants should go down too for their complicity. Clean house!
41
@MomT: I suspect it isn't just this so-called president that still surprises you. It's the fact that a whole lot of your neighbors voted for him. I will never get over that.
26
There's a wide spectrum of legitimate opinion on trade policy, and over the years I've usually found myself to be more "protectionist" than Krugman.
But he nicely sums up the current problem in one sentence:
"Unfortunately, he (DJT) doesn't really know what he's doing"
Why isn't this obvious to people who still think Trump is a smart business negotiator?
10
@Larry their ego will not allow that,
1
The center cannot hold. My God, we are in a state. Trump, an incompetent, cheating businessman, probably with a failing business, runs on a whim to get more notoriety and gets elected by a minority of people because of our odd electoral system. He then becomes odd grandpa and using his addled brain, which he thinks is great, to dismantle much of the system that has kept us safe and rich, adding a dose of cheating, dishonor and rudeness. The GOP (Grand? OP) loses its honor and spine jumps in to wreck the achievements of the previous president and look away at dictator style speech (investigate Hillary!, lock her up). T looks the other way when a rich leader of an oil country kills a journalist because there is too much money to be lost. (Oh, and by the way cabinet Acosta pulls the same thing in Florida).
Now the enabling Republicans refuse to give up control in states won by Democrats, saying "but they might do Democrat things" that the voters wanted.
In the shadow of the passing of a true hero and honorable man, HW Bush, we have lost our honor. We are diminished by the president of the United States.
17
Ghibberish Man a is a more apt moniker. How many ways can one describe the actions of a disheveled, unbalanced or unhinged finger on the trigger?
The fearful component is to look closely at the pep rally audiences. Pan the camera and the audience decked out in their MACA caps sways to the beat of the loon on the podium.
You ask yourself, are we and they in the same reality?
11
"(Nancy Pelosi calls it “the trade agreement formerly known as Prince.”)"
I would re-elect her to anything based on this alone.....
11
@LS
Can someone please explain Pelosi's remark? I don't get it at all.
@James
The explanation is in Krugman's sentence right before the quote.
The Artist Formerly Known as Prince was of course Prince himself, he just signed his work differently.
The same goes for Nafta 2.0, that Trump is now touting.
Most of the negotiating work has been done under Obama already (so it's really not Trump who invented the idea that Nafta needed an update ...), and the final agreement is, as Krugman says, largely the same as the previous version, whereas the Trump administration only added some minor modifications.
So it's basically Obama's Nafta, signed by a different name.
Pelosi is mocking the fact that Trump is lying so much about this, and trying to make his base falsely believe that (1) he was strongly engaged in the negotiations leading up to the deal, and (2) substantially changed it from where it would have been under Obama and the Democrats.
2
@James
The rock star Prince, at the height of his career decided for no comprehensible reason to declare himself nameless. His name was replaced by a symbol. Odd, yes, but he was a musical genius. He was widely mocked for this and so was called "The artist formerly known as Prince". Same package, different label.
The new NAFTA is pretty much the same old thing with a few tweeks. Some are calling it NAFtwo.
You are right, Prof. Krugman, Trump actually does not realize the tariffs are paid by American companies and American consumers and not by China ! He tweeted proudly Tuesday “We are right now taking in $billions in Tariffs. MAKE AMERICA RICH AGAIN,”. Obviously, he is delusional and didn't know the government was taking the money from us Americans !
8
I am grateful for the forewarning of how the "Kingdom" is utilized in the academic study of biblical studies, since you mention:
When trying to make deals, he seems to care only about whether he can claim a “win,” not about substance. He has been touting the “U.S. Mexico Canada Trade Agreement” as a repudiation of NAFTA, when it’s actually just a fairly minor modification. (Nancy Pelosi calls it “the trade agreement formerly known as Prince.”)
If physical harm was not a fact in being a proponent for Inclusion and Diversity Campaign. Something is very wrong. It saddens me that so many people have been brainwashed because "Now this is my world your holding in the palm of your hands" I was told.
1
Paul, you mention working with other nations. How has that worked out for the US lately? Surely, you were not an advocate for Obama's Iran deal? Were you? You know the one he rammed through with his pen and phone, by executive order? The one no one in Congress approved.
Do you really believe that the US was better off not engaging in talks with N. Korea? How has that worked out for the last 30 years, or so?
Are you a believer that Obama was correct to laugh at Romney, when Romney suggested Russia was one of, if not the biggest threat to our nation's security? Were you laughing then, as well?
Do you really believe that China has the right to, basically steal the technology from the firms they do business with?
I am not a Trump supporter. However, I am a supporter of the US.
Fair trade is one issue. Unfair trade is also an issue. How about a "talking points" on China's trade relations with us?
I suppose you, like Michelle, consider Israel a rogue state?
Why you and your fellow opinion writers do not "pick on"real rogue states like Iran Syria, Russia, Turkey, just to name a few, is beyond me.
Oh well! have a nice day.
1
@bsb
As Krugman explains here once again, it's US LAW that gives the president the authority to sign those international agreements on his own.
And how can you call a process that took years "ramming through" ... ?
"Ramming through" means not taking the time to consult anyone. The Iran agreement is the exact opposite. And remember that it's an international deal, supported by the entire world except for Netanhayu (corrupt), Trump and Saudi Arabia's dictator ... quite a nice company to find yourself in, isn't it?
As to North Korea: contrary to Iran, it is not only building nuclear weapons but even expanding its building sites. So IF you dislike the Iran deal, how can you support what is going on here? Just because once in a while Trump sends Pompeo to have another talk and photo-op with the Korean dictator ... ?
Russia: how can you both seem to believe that Russia is one of the biggest threats to our national security, and then simultaneously support a party that not only claims that it isn't, but isn't doing anything to stop Putin at all?
China: the entire West, including Krugman (as he explicitly confirms here) reject China's stealing of technology.
Rogue states: just google "Krugman Russia" for instance, and you'll see that your idea that he disagrees with you here is totally wrong. It's just that ... well, contrary to your comment here, this is an op-ed about Trump's trade wars, remember?
2
To me, ramming through means without the consent, approval, authorization, etc of the Senate or the House. .
" And remember that it's an international deal, supported by the entire world except for Netanhayu (corrupt), Trump and Saudi Arabia's dictator ... quite a nice company to find yourself in, isn't it?"
The entire world except the United States and its citizens!!! I guess that means little to you.
Executive Order infers that it is not approved by the Congress, and, may be overturned.
You really did not answer the question on N. Korea. Would it be better to take a "hands off" approach as Obama did? That worked out real well. As far as Russia is concerned, it sure seems like Romney was correct.
To "win" the Trade War, why don't we just trade in the President?
7
@LCG It's not like Beacon Hill & surrounds hasn't had some real dinks in political leadership. See: Dukakis; Kerry; Honey Fitz; JFK?
The biggest danger to the stability of this country is the Republican Party or the Trump Party or whatever it's called now.
9
At least the rubes who support Trump will have to bear the costs of his ignorance, like the rest of us. But they are less financially able to do so
5
Mitch McConnell could disarm this maniac overnight if he weren't such a craven coward.
7
You don't realize how good you don't need to wright about him and nukes...
Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs president who was Trump's National Economic Council director, came away from his very first meeting with Donald Trump “astounded” by just how dumb Trump was.
During a discussion about various economic issues, Cohn told Trump that the Federal Reserve would likely increase rates during his first term in office, to which President responded, “We should just go borrow a lot of money, hold it, and then sell it to make money.” This suggestion, and “lack of basic understanding” about how federal debt works stunned Cohn, who explained that borrowing more money would in fact increase the deficit and add to the debt, something that would be counterproductive for a delusional president who had pledged to completely eliminate the federal debt.
Trump's answer: “Just run the presses—print money,”
12
This piece could have been written with only four words: Trump is a dummy.
5
The true scandal is that the USA lack the moral and legal instruments to rid itself of an imposter and gangster like trump.
6
"ignorant, volatile and delusional" is what you expect to describe someone sitting at the end of a skeefy bar, not in the Oval Office
don the con is bringing to America and the World the same con he brought to Atlantic City and to his "University" students - a bad bad bad bad bad bad bad deal
5
I have a hard time believing Trump walked into that dinner with Xi without knowing about the Chinese arrest in Canada. Did Bolton knowingly let Trump kill a deal; he knew about the arrest and said nothing???!?!?!?!?!?!? Is Bolton out to sabotage Trump's leadership?
1
The Trump governing philosophy in a nutshell - "Tear it all down, and if Obama built it burn the debris". The GOP governing philosophy - "Smash and grab as much as possible, before it all comes down".
9
That Trump is completely irrational is not in question. What is in question is why he is allowed to play games with all facets of our life on this small spinning orb we call home. He is a disaster for the economy, the environment, public health, global relations, etc. Someone (Mueller, GOP?) needs to take a stand now!
7
Who has an eye on the cookie jar on the possibility of Trump cronies buying puts and calls on the volatility of the markets that Trump directly and indirectly controls by his timed statements. Not difficult to speculate that there are corrupt gains to be made by advanced warnings of Presidential tweets that move markets. Is the Trump controlled SEC on top of this? Any investigative journalists on this?
Hard to believe that someone connected to the Trump family/Whitehouse is not profiting from this. What is the true intention of MrTrump aside from "winning" when huge profits can also be realized by this behavior.
7
It’s clear that Trump really doesn’t know what he’s doing, unless you give him credit for fixing, albeit partially, something that he breaks. North Korea is a good example; he bombasted about his ‘big button’, made a big stink, brought back fears of nuclear war, declared victory, and nothing particularly changed. Same MO with tariffs: he waxes pugilist with China, creates havoc for farmers (then buys their love with a pity grant) as well as US manufacturers, only later to realize (maybe not?) the tariffs are not real good for our economy.
So, why does he pull these stunts? The man with no plan, but with unbridled power, is calculating all of this in terms of his optics, to show what a big shot he is, and, no surprise, to whip up his shrinking base. He’ll never grow up, and he’ll never learn.
6
Am surprised Dr. Krugman and other leading thinkers aren't addressing the stock market collapse, which negatively impacts millions of us and is the result of Trump's incessant and irresponsible tweeting, rancid trade deals and indecisiveness.
1
@Ed
In real life, Krugman writes here:
"Markets plunged earlier this week as investors realized that they’d been had. As I said, business really doesn’t want a trade war."
Krugman wrote, "Big business hates the prospect of a trade war, and stocks plunge whenever that prospect becomes more likely." This raises this question: Is Trump deliberately attempting to manipulate stock prices in order to benefit a select group of traders with advance notice of Trump's tweets and rants? A trader with such information could profit handsomely by knowing ahead of time when the market is about to plunge several hundred points. This of course suggests that there is rampant corruption in the Trump administration, but then, we already know that.
6
Is incompetence an impeachable offense? We should add it to high crimes and misdemeanors. Anyone surprised by Trump's dismal performance on the economy (and nearly everything else), ignored his previous track record of failure with several bankruptcies and business failures for decades. We now learn his father bankrolled his incompetence for decades and now it is our turn. SAD!
6
It seems Trump will force Congress to address the idea of a corrupt and inept president. The imperial presidency that now destroys trade also endangers us with its power over nuclear proliferation. The all-powerful president was a reaction to a corrupt Congress, but the Senate has been elected by the people for a long time, while the president has been elected by the corrupt electoral system that has now given us the disastrous presidencies of Bush 43 and Trump.
4
Trump's two biggest traits are ignorance and corruption. Trade and economics are just two areas where his ignorance and corruption are on full display.
If Robert Mueller doesn't bring him down the economy will.
4
@Nick Adams Trump seems to be immune to economic loss and Mueller.. well, who knows? What else ya got?
Trump and his policies are the symptom, not the cause. Social media are fracturing societies worldwide into toxic subgroups who all believe their opinions are mainstream and so absolutely right that others need to be converted or ruled over.
Parliamentary democracies have by and large held up best in the face of this, with the noted exception of Britain. Brexit however can be traced back to severe judgement errors by Cameron (reckless gambler) and Corbyn (irrational hatred of the EU).
The American Presidential democracy on the other hand has over time concentrated too much power in one man. Cabinet members or the Vice President have a hard time challenging, let alone stopping him in his decisions. We are now paying for that mistake dearly.
3
You observe: "Even as he declared himself Tariff Man, Trump revealed that he doesn’t understand how tariffs work. No, they aren’t taxes on foreigners, they’re taxes on our own consumers."
Yes. It's a whopping sales tax, and sales taxes are regressive. It hits lower income people far harder than the wealthy (who got the lion's share of the breaks from "tax reform.")
Mr. Trump claims that his tariffs are making foreigners pay. What a joke. We are.
6
I have come to the conclusion that Trump is going to trash pretty much every agreement, pact, treaty, rule, regulation or law we have.
Trump will do this because they don't bear his name.
Trump's gut knows that anything without the Trump name is inferior and needs to be discarded.
Trump will negotiate, or issue a decree, insuring a Trump® is now prominently displayed in a print or physical form.
Securing a better deal is secondary to Trump being showcased.
It will not matter if the new deal, treaty, pact or whatever is better or worse than what we had before.
It will not matter if we gain or lose.
It will not matter if the agreement causes businesses to fail, or if it discriminates against people, or if it adds to the debt or if it harms the climate or any such thing.
The new one will have Trump's name on it, and that is all that matters.
Oh, and if it puts money in his pocket or one of his kids?
Even better.
3
The idea that the United States could radically alter Chinese culture and behavior is ludicrous, particularly asking that it be done in 90 days.
The fact is that we have been tolerating Chinese appropriation of intellectual property and technical secrets for years. We have done this because we and others have profited from the business arrangements we have with China.
Most likely, the Chinese will appear to agree to a few of our “demands,” and then continue as usual.
3
You can get rich running your own company and treating people like dirt, but you can't do the same with free nations.
What "success" Trump has had is related to the dependence of other nations on the goodwill of the U.S.. And like a bad marriage, it takes a while to develop and execute an exit strategy.
2
I started off like most Trump antagonist, blaming Trump. I now realize it is the Republican party making a money grab and Trump is the vehicle.
The Republican Party has been hijacked by the greedy who define winning solely by how many marbles you have at the end of the game. The tragedy is they are shortening the length of the game.
There is no loyalty to country. Country is simply where you hang your hat to grab the most you can. As the country fails you move.
Time is of the essence with Mueller's investigation. There are greedy forces working against him and this once not took long ago country.
Trump is only the tip of the iceberg.
5
You forgot the part about Trump nonsensically invoking "national security" provisions to justify steel and aluminum tariffs against longtime ally Canada. This did not only hurt major manufacturers that straddle the border, like Ford, GM, and others, but it was a disgusting slap in the face given the fact that Canada and the US have a uniquely long and well-entrenched defense/security partnership, exceeding Five Eyes, NATO, and other multinational security agreements.
3
Our entire country for last two years has been at the mercy of Trump's rather limited mental processes---I pray we can make it two more years without getting into a war or suffer a deep recession---which are entirely avoidable with an individual with some modicum of intelligence.
Soybean farmers are losing trade deals and exports are down, but they don't blame Trump. They still hope he's playing hard ball and knows what he's doing. I wonder how long Fox News will be successful in hiding the truth from soybean farmers: that Trump is dumb and their bankruptcies are his fault.
3
Remember the TTP - the Obama deal that gave us leverage in our China negotiations?
Not looking too bad now.
4
There is an increasing evidence suggesting that Trump is demented. We need to have him tested by a blue ribbon panel of psychologists, psychiatrists and neurologists. If found to have diminished capacity, Trump's powers should be suspended under the 25th Amendment. Republican manipulators may like a President who is impulsive, but that is not good for the country or the world.
3
How can this be happening? Every literate American knows we have an incompetent president with serious personality disorders, but we have to grin and bear it because he has a firm grasp on the reins of power and the support of enough millions of people to be firmly entrenched.
I have heard the 2016 election called a referendum on competence, which incompetence won. How can so many people choose to reject the wisdom of experts and embrace flim-flam?
During a presidential primary debate, Jeb Bush told Trump, "you can't insult your way into the White House." He was wrong. Trump showed if you blow the racial dog whistle with conviction and swagger, and demean everyone who refuses to flatter you, you can in fact become the most powerful person on the planet.
In some way, it all goes back to the willful blindness and hypocrisy of men who founded this nation on race-based slave labor. The depravity of that system has poisoned our culture for centuries and defines the political divide today. Trump is who we are, for at least 40% of us, anyway.
3
A lesson taught me when I was a child: A simpleton found a hole in a shirt. He decided to fix it. How? By cutting out the hole. When he was done. He saw the hole was now larger. Solution? Cut it out again. And that's how Trump learned to solve trade problems.
3
If it is not "comforting' to know that the future of World Trade hinges on Trumps mentality, how do you feel about future of American race relations, the future of the planet, the future of democracy, the future of Presidential power, the future of the Supreme Court and the future of science and reason in America?
2
Trump is clueless in many areas. He has no policy knowledge, and no convictions beyond his personal gain. The same way in which the Federalist Society is feeding him judge and Supreme Court nominations, in regards to trade we are hearing about the Hudson Institute daily. Scooter Libby, who was perdoned by Trump, is a VP of this institute. This is consistent with his many collaborators in or about to go to jail.
2
Great title, Paul. Rebel without a clue. I’m chuckling as I write.
1
The “ genius business man” who runs his businesses as well as his administration like some underworld syndicate has less business and financial acumen than a six year old running a lemonade stand. Actually, the six year old probably has more integrity.
The tRumpanzee economic agenda can career right into the gutter and he will point a finger elsewhere.
Like all his other failures someone else will be left holding the bag. This time it’s the taxpayers.
1
China’s economic policy spans 50 years and is printed as a book that is required reading for all government employees, university students, and business people.
The US economic policy is Trump’s favorite verbal crutch—
“Who knows? We’ll see.”
As we stagger toward a Depression, the likes of which will cause his supporters a brutal smack down, we have a 'leader' who can't walk 250 yards. A self indulgent blowhard with no intellectual murmurings, trump pockets money along the way, as does his family and a network of fellow criminals. What he fails to grasp is that many of us live in a reality that subsists on a basic theory of honesty. Saying "I won" doesn't make it so and the demise of our financial well being will not arrive in a limo but with a punch in the gut to decent, hard working, grossly underpaid Americans. I have had enough.
2
Not just the whim of one man. Xi has a much stronger position in China than anyone in the West. Trump will fade; Xi is boss man for life.
1
Since Trump's ignorance and venality are so obvious and really have no genuine base of support, where are the Republicans?
2
I would submit that of the 63 million who voted for Trump, 63 thousand might understand tariffs and I’m being generous.
1
Prof. Krugman does a service in this excellent column by focussing on discretion and corruption as the key characteristics of tariff policy.
But while "U.S. trade law gives the president a lot of discretionary power over trade," corrupt abuse is never legal. If J.P. Morgan is correct in telling its clients that what Pres. Trump claims is "If not completely fabricated then grossly exaggerated,” then the tariffs are illegal.
As regards the economics of this, it's not just that "Who pays the tariff?" Is us, the Americans. It's also that we pay more for both U.S. and imported goods, because the U.S. sources are presumed to charge higher prices when their competitors' with-tax prices rise.
There's a rosy theory that this will eventually result in higher U.S. output. But that depends on a wealth-holder deciding to invest in a U.S. facility that will be wholly dependent on the whim of one person, Donald J. ("Don't Take Him Literally") Trump.
The result we should expect is not a burst of investment and hiring, but rather a period of enjoying tariff-granted excess profits while waiting to see what comes next.
1
Trump is a moron as his SoS and numerous others have pointed out. The good news is he'll almost certainly run away from a major trade confrontation with China just as he did with Canada and Mexico. His threats against the Democrats to tear it up unless they vote for it are risible. Pelosi must be thinking Make my Day!
There are a lot of gremlins currently lurking in the US economy (deficits, inverted yield curves, market volatility, interest rate rises) and any serious hint of trade war with China causes markets to implode. 2018 gains have already pretty much gone and the usual Santa Claus rally looks less likely. Resident fathead already has mounting political and legal problems will he really want to nudge the US economy into a major slowdown? I doubt it.
1
I agree 100% with you, Mr. Krugman. But the problem is how do we deal with it. Two years is a long time till the next election. I cannot think of any possible way to avert this trade friction and calm the Tariff Man.
"Why do I say that it’s all about one man? After all, after the 2016 U.S. election and the Brexit vote in Britain, there was a lot of talk about a broad popular backlash against globalization. Over the past two years, however, it has become clear that this backlash was both smaller and shallower than advertised."
The problem is people don't understand globalization and as with many other things - capitalism, The Government, the EU - they love the benefits, hate the costs, and only dimly grasp that the two are related. People hate the outsourcing of jobs but love paying cheap prices; people hate Mexicans coming here and taking our jerbs but love hiring them for inexpensive work; etc.
2
It is difficult to explain Trump if you were trying to come up with a rational basis test for what he does policy wise. After thinking about it it is so very simple. When his almost always destructive policies are put into practice whether it be economic like trade or revisions to EPA regulations, or on social policy that further polarizes the body politic, the outcomes are bad for the country. We have loss of private income to both large and small businesses, damage to our environment, market volatility that will eventually reduce confidence and thus market values, and a massive disruption to the body politic as the rule of law that has governed our country is being slowly destroyed. There is only one major winner in all of these outcomes, Russia. Russia gains as our ability to further strengthen our society weakens. China's influence has grown as a result of tearing up the TPP but a tariff war is not good for China's economy as it will reduce growth. Only Russia is the clear winner here because Trump above all else, weakens the international alliances that are used in concert to control Russian aggression and that can also be used to influence China directly and successfully. This with Russian political activities in Europe and Britain in particular, weaken the collective West's (U.S. and EU) ability is to curb Russian corruption and criminal behaviors. Outcomes are driven by actions, and thus Trump is compromised because his actions speak for themselves consistently.
4
The progressive left in the embodiment of Bernie Sanders is most definitely protectionist on foreign trade. It is not just Trump. Trump is not alone in wanting to significantly curtail trade in order to protect American working class jobs, just look at 2016 election results in PA, OH, MI and WI for illumination.
The electorate wants the upside of free trade (cheap goods), but also wants to preserve the once 1950s prosperity of the working classes. But, that is no longer possible. In fact, even if we reverse course on trade the once prosperity of the working classes will not return. That ship has sailed.
So, if Trump's Trade War is being fought to save the working classes, then he, meaning we, will lose, because winning is about bringing back working class prosperity, which is simply no longer attainable via protectionism.
Perhaps the biggest problem for America is that neither political party has the guts to tell America's working class that being working class is no longer a reasonable pathway to the American Dream.
4
Not a Sandernista, but think you have his aims wrong. He is not anti globalism in the same way as the American firsters. He wants more support for workers affected by globalization. He wants better international agreements that protect workers rather than corporations. You also seem to be arguing that the working class will somehow go away or die in a social Darwinian sense. But of course globalization simply means it will continue with different skills and educational levels.
"Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans believing that foreign trade is good for the economy is near a record high. Even those who criticize trade seem to be motivated by loyalty to Trump, not by deep policy convictions"
His supporters love this press-bullying, "seemingly" straight-talking, "he's one of us" guys as their president. He bonded with them to create a deep sense of loyalty. They feel he's "their guy" and this proves he "made the sale" with them.
They hated precision, nuance and intellectualism a la Obama, and they probably see litte impact as to what any president does to their lives, directly. So they got this flame-thrower in there who at times entertains them, beats up their enemies, and allows them to feel more represented than with the usual office holder. With Trump, it's all about "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." He's their friend.
Fortunately, when Democrats are motivated to vote they can defeat the segment of the electorate that think like this, but watch out for the independents who can be tipped one way or the other. Scary as it seems, they can think he got a raw deal or is being unfairly targeted, and support him in 2020.
Trump is arguably America's first media created president. He is more about theater than substance and therein is the danger he poses. There was in the past a connection between the reality presidents had to confront and the actions they might resort to , but with Trump there is instead of reality, theatricality. As in any piece of theater, he expects us to drop our critical thinking so that can we embrace the fantasy that he is staging.
Trump tweets and says whatever his theater of the moment needs to, to get audience attention.In terms of his theater of trade, the emotions he wants to reach are those of the feeling of being taken advantage of, of job loss and fear of competition. His solutions are fantasy that move his audiences to applaud , but in the real world there are no magic wands and pumpkins that turn into carriages.
The world can not afford to indulge Trump's fictions and can not be lead by what may make for fun television. The world needs sober, realistic leadership if it is not to plunge into chaos. It is time that Trump be judged not by entertainment standards but by real world adult standards !
1
"Trump is arguably America's first media created president."
Reagan.
That moment from Back To The Future - "no wonder your president's an actor, he has to look good on television!" - sadly encapsulates his presidency.
2
Why is it so hard for certain people to see the outcome of competitive protectionism as a tax on consumers? Just look around. What in the average office or home isn't labeled "Made in China", or India, or Mexico?
Then, if you can find them, compare the prices of those goods with similar products made in America. Consider, as a special case, the rising prices of products whose primary components are steel and/or aluminum. Is there anyone who doesn't realize that a domestic producer, freed of foreign competition, will praise his prices and pocket the excess profit?
A nation that decides what it does best, and does it, is miles ahead of a nation who flounders around trying to be something it's not, and even those who have made the best decisions are always vulnerable to senseless trade restrictions imposed by competitors for political purposes.
Trade wars are like sanctions. They hurt the most vulnerable while their leaders are having their limos waxed and their golf courses mown.
2
The war of the Pluto-kleptocracy continues unabated . As a broker in the 80s I never understood why global open trade would help the common man. he pays less at Walmart if he has a job that pays him enough to shop there. All the excess margin of profit has been upstreamed to the 1% as CEO's and this that are shareholders. Citizens United is just another arrow in the quill of the 1% enslaving the rest of humanity. What Henry Ford saw 100 years ago in raising workers wages seems to be lost on the greed driven CEO's of today.
10
I was completely distracted in reading this column to learn that Nancy Pelosi had deft enough knowledge of the career of Prince to make a metaphor from it.
5
@C Wolfe
And a perfect metaphor it was. I laughed out loud when I read it.
Tariff Man is a prime example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. And meanwhile the soybeans rot in the fields, and high steel/aluminum prices benefit few and hurt many.
6
While I certainly agree with the general tone of this piece in re the “intellect” of our great leader, intellectual property theft is a complicated issue. In many instances companies which do some business with China in hopes of selling there products there are “forced” to turn over some of their technical property. They do so reluctantly but they do it anyway. Certainly a good case can be made for intellectual property theft on the part of the Chinese companies but as I say it is a complex issue.
But let’s face it China is a very quickly growing economy and will soon outstrip the United States, a fact which is no doubt lost on our “leader”.
4
It seems to me the US already addressed the issue of China’s ambitions. It was called the TransPacific Partnership.
24
@Peter
We have to call it something else so that Trump can take credit for it, even if it is similar, or even identical, to the original language.
2
Re "Over the past two years, however, it has become clear that this backlash (against globalsation)was both smaller and shallower than advertised."
France
Let me explain to American Readers the basics
1. As the EU expanded , low wage countries, were added :
Poland, Bulgaria Romania
2. French factories closed to and moved to Poland. Most
well known, Whirlpool that moved from Amiens
(Labour cost Euro 35 per hour) to Poland (Euro 7.80)
3. Seasonal worker from Bulgaria, Romania, Poland
moved to France, willing to work for less, undercutting
French wages
4. Beef from Romania, potatoes from Poland, wines from
Bulgaria entered France, at low prices
5. Seasonal construction workers from Portugal took
over construction
That was pleasing to the urban French elite, that found cheaper goods and the French financial elites that could
throw up buildings for less.
But it impoverished the French country side. One third of French farms make less than Euro 340 per month
The French country side just does not wish to go the way of Syracuse NY, once a prosperous city, where General Motors Fisher plant , New Process Gear , Carrier employed thousands. After NAFTA was signed, they moved to Mexico where wages were 1/6.
As in Brexit, it is a rebellion against the ill thought out trade theory of Western economist that, they themselves, have yet to see their wages fall to the global average.
6
Yeah, the problem is that it's not just "the elites" (unless you're doing an American-conservative thing where "elites" means "everybody in cities.") PEOPLE, in general, love having to pay less for goods. I suspect even the countryside has plenty of people like that.
@Woof - your analysis asserts that trade is bad and assumes it benefits only 'the elites'. In fact it benefits societies as a whole - but unevenly. Read almost any economics textbook.
The trouble now built into the system here is that the president has the power to veto any restraints on his own power. Only a veto-proof majority in both houses will do. I’m sure the founders imagined a Congress more covetous of its own powers. Adams and Hamilton need to go back to the drawing board...
4
As JP Morgan analysts said, "If not completely fabricated then grossly exaggerated.” That pretty much applies to every positive thing Donald Trump claims to have done in the past two years. He has kept some campaign promises, but they were all bad things for Americans and our individual freedom. The media aren't our greatest enemy. The Trumped-up Republican Party is our greatest enemy.
11
"Are we going to have a full-blown trade war with China...?"
At this point we will be doing well if we can limit things to just a trade war. The recent hostage taking, er, arrest of a Chinese national in Vancouver airport for alleged trade agreement/contract violations seems a step beyond trade war. I wouldn't want to be an American business executive visiting China right now.
Will grownups ever be back in charge?
502
@averill
The recent arrest goes way beyond issue of Iran sanctions— it involves massive IP theft from Cisco syst. and other clandestine activity.
China will detain, restrain, confiscate and obstruct IP and general business (with centric currency policy) that operates within their domain— while trading partners continue to play by the rules. While Dr. Krugman makes intelligent and cogent observations, a working strategy toward a solution to all this hasn’t been successful or even offered. That should tell you something.
18
@Ralph Averill
Bolton seemed especially smug about the arrest, especially since the President didn't know about it at the time. He thinks he's in charge now. And he's probably correct that the President would have blabbed to Xi what was going on.
28
@shererje Trump has the attention span of a gnat, and has no grasp of how to lead. Watching him is like being a spectator to carnage, and that is what he is doing to divide our country, and isolate us from the free world at the same time with all of his political blunders.
24
Trump really does think that all he has to do to “win” is scowl across a table. Of course he is scowling at everyone and everything these days so he no longer gets even the meager effect he might have initially enjoyed. He is exposed as a flailing fraud self imposing wounds at every turn.
548
@andrew - I'm not an expert at body language although to me his dull eyed countenance reminds me of a dullard cow chewing cud in a pasture or a bored D student sitting in the back of the classroom biding time until he can go home and sit in front of the TV eating Colonel Sanders & slurping Coca Cola. The only time those dull eyes become slightly engaged is when he is at a Miss Universe Pageant, on the golf course or discussing deals to enrich himself.
114
@Dunca ...or defending Vladimir Putin.
42
@Dunca
Perfect....the blank look says it all.
40
Donald's reign shows the danger of overconcentration of power in the President/executive. Beyond tariffs, the power wielded by Trump in almost every area has been unchecked, regulations reversed, EPA, health care, finance, consumer protection and on and on. The system is set up for institutional review and checks, but Congress is in thrall to Donald, and has done nothing. Let's hope the new House slows Donald and the Republicans down.
482
@TimothyCotter I don't think there is anyone in Congress that "is in thrall to Donald". On some issues they like, some they don't. Mostly they are playing defense, dealing with what they have. Our stupid presidential primary system gave us the celebrity Trump, since we have made our political parties toothless. We foolishly invest too much power in one person. Sometimes you are lucky, sometimes it is not too bad, this is something else.
32
@TimothyCotter
Congress is not "in thrall" to donald. Only republicans in congress are allowing this unhinged individual to act like a Dictator.
The People who voted in the November 6, 2018 election threw out a record number of republicans from both the Federal level, and added 40 new Democrats to the House of Representatives, and seven (7) complete republican State legislatures and Governors were replaced by Democrats.
So the "In Thrall to the donald" party AKA, republicans got their hats handed to them. These were not Democrats. It helps to balance the news stories from the alternative media that like to minimize and claim false equivalent comparisons of the two major Political Parties. It's completely unfair to the voters to mischaracterize the activities of the Democrats.
58
@wnhoke...sometimes you bite the bear, sometimes the bear bites you.
3
This is where the GOP ought to be stepping in and restraining the president. At the very least they ought to be attempting to point out in public what the problems are with his actions. If Trump truly cares about the average American he'd stop what he's doing. If the GOP cared about America they would not have had an 8 year temper tantrum when Obama was in office. The GOP, because of their resentment at black man winning the presidency twice, decided, both times, to behave as unpatriotically as possible.
This country is supposed to work for all of us. We pay taxes and we ought to be able to expect our elected and appointed officials to understand the implications of their decisions. If they don't or can't, we ought to be able to expect them to consult with some experts who are impartial and will give them both sides of the story.
Trump is proving to be a disastrous president. He is unable to perform his duties without being churlish, childish, petulant, resentful, and untruthful. I do not understand why any person watching his performance can support him at this point. All he's doing is setting us up for an economic storm. He's made foolish statements and decisions. He threatens and bullies where there's no need. He makes W look like a saint.
To quote him: pathetic. For a self proclaimed stable genius he's been skating pretty close to the edge.
822
@hen3ry
A disastrous president aided and abetted by a disastrous Republican Congress and disastrous deplorable supporters.
158
@hen3ry GOP is almost dead. Now they are Trumpista party. Don’t expec5 any change from they.
32
Oh please do enlighten all of us as to exactly what it is he has done. We all must have missed something.
62
Trump's primary goal, from the beginning, has been self-enrichment. Anyone that believes he has any altruistic impulse is delusional. So when he threatens trade sanctions or tears up or makes trade deals, it is appropriate to ask how he personally benefits.
As time passes, I'm convinced that we will find more hidden benefits for the Trump clan than we thought possible.
On a net basis, the nation benefits from trade, but that doesn't mean that some people aren't hurt by it. An unfortunate fact of life is that those that are hurt are far more vocal than those that benefit. As a political matter, therefore, trade is inherently unstable.
It takes a leader with a steady hand to guide trade to assure that we enjoy its maximum benefits. I remember--it was not too long ago--when we had such a leader.
450
@Justin You can't possibly mean Obama, can you???
7
What the stable genius doesn't understand is that world trade is just trade. Everything is bound up in global supply chains. Raw materials, refined materials, components parts, assemblies, and finished goods cross many borders before they end up in someone's living room or place of business. Software, books, music, movies, and other creative products likewise traverse many borders before the consumer buys them. Higher education is a global industry. So is scientific research and development.
I own a little cottage industry business. Half of my sales go overseas. It's truly wonderful that the entire globe is my marketplace and all I needed was a website as a storefront. Trump's chaos has driven up the dollar which has greatly hurt my exports as well as the turmoil he has created which prevents customers from buying.
The one factory small town is dead and no one can bring it back. We are entering an age of self employment, entrepreneurship on a grand scale, as a means of earning a living. Everyone is now everyone's customer. Soon, I would not be surprised a person can send their lab results to a doctor in Pakistan for analysis and treatment at a tiny fraction of the cost of a US physician. Global companies will set these up as go betweens, to make the connection. The doctor probably would be educated here. Talent will move across borders just as goods do.
This is the reality of the modern world. Trump's reality is a 1930's movie, with only villains, him.
769
@Bruce Rozenblit
And Big Business will glory in the convergence of pay rates to a U.S. historical low.
48
@Bruce Rozenblit -- "Talent will move across borders just as goods do."
Perhaps your surgeon will be in Pakistan, operating a robot made ... wherever, brought to you by planet wide fiber optics.
18
@Bruce Rozenblit
Too bad Trump isn’t as coherent as that true stable genius, Mr. Ed.
Also kudos to the person responsible for this ditty:
“I shot the tariffs
But I did not shoot the subsidy.”
73
Is it possible that Trump and his small coterie of enablers are actually fighting against the 16th Amendment?
Just hear me out: the 16th turned the income tax into the primary revenue source for the US government. At the time, tariffs were considered too unpredictable and to have an oversized effect on the poor. The 16th was a progressive response to what was essentially unfair taxation practices. It attempted to level the field by getting the people and corporations ( around that time a 2% corporate tax was levied) to pay according to their income and not their spending.
Maybe I’m a bit too out-there, but it seems as if Republicans have be raised to fight the progressive era, from the New Deal on back. And these new tariffs will put money on the treasury by effectively taxing US consumers for their purchases. You can bet Trump and friends will use that in a slight of hand attempt to show higher revenue after the Trump tax cuts. (“See! The tax cuts work! We’re getting more revenue than the naysayers expected.) These tariffs are effectively a tax increase on US consumers, the very thing the 16th Amendment tried to stop and Republicans in 2017 promised wouldn’t happen.
9
I think of it as partial deal. Trump claims credit for more half completed ideas than any president in my 66 year memory. His supporters claim he fulfilled a campaign promise when the facts are very few are complete.
9
"Let’s be clear: China is not a good actor in the world economy. It engages in real misbehavior, especially with regard to intellectual property: The Chinese essentially rip off technology. So there is a case for toughening our stance on trade"
Right. The TPP was a good attempt to form a union with trading partners which would have countered China and helped contained its influence in the area. No, the TPP was not perfect. No international agreement ever is. Likely it would have needed tweaking going forward, but it was a start. However, Trump, who believes that he can always do better than others, who seems intent on destroying everything and anything Mr. Obama did, simply tore it up for applause. In the process he cut those trading partners adrift; some have turned to China. All are unsure if or when they can trust the USA as a partner again.
Electing a narcissistic, ill-informed, mentally lazy and unstable man to the White House has consequences for the whole world. I fear we are but beginning to pay the consequences.
58
@Anne-Marie Hislop
Yes. To underline one of your points, even if someone reasonable is elected president in 2020 & the GOP continues to shrivel, treaty partners will always figure that if it can happen once, it can happen again - and negotiate accordingly. (Of course Iran, China, etc already operate this way; I'm thinking of Canada, the EU, Mexico, etc).
Everything the world needed to know about Trump's presidency was contained in his book, The Art of the Deal, had people bothered to read it (who knew that you could learn things from books?).
For example, in Chapter 2, he describes how a "poorly qualified" Jimmy Carter became president by having the nerve to "ask for something extraordinary." But later, "people caught on pretty quickly that Carter couldn't do the job."
He then goes on to say that Ronald Reagan also was "an effective performer who won over the American people. Only now, seven years later, are people beginning to question whether there's anything beneath that smile."
Trump doesn't even bother to smile.
4
@Luomaike
With Trump, the question on the world's lips is more likely, 'Is there anything behind that orange makeup?'
After a bitter trade tariff war agreeing to the trade truce with China, and the same day requesting Canada to arrest the Huawei's top executive Meng speaks volumes about the ignorance and confusion of Trump about the matters of world trade let alone the intricacies of the world economy that's beyond his grasp.
13
@Prof. Jai Prakash Sharma
Why our government agreed to go along with this is beyond me. Trump has amply proved his emnity toward Canada. Despite that, we took sides against another major trading partner especially in light of the fact that the Huawei dispute appears to stem from the USA's obsessive and unilateral campaign against Iran. I am no fan of Iranian policy, but the fact remains that the country respected its nuclear deal while the US government dishonestly reneged on its own commitments. Now, we have inflicted damage on our relationship with China to please a (former) friendly ally who is spitting on us.
1
@Prof. Jai Prakash Sharma
Krugman suggests the President is delusional, incompetent and irresponsible when it comes to China trade and the Canadian detention. Crazy like a fox. He has Lighthauser and Navarro to guide him. Two of the best in the world and Bolton on the Canadian arrest of Chinese CFO of China's largest telecom company.
Trump, his advisors and I, contend the country wants us to win this trade negotiations with China. I believe the arrest was designed to send Xi a message that the U.S. will hold its hard line position on trade negotiations. Xi understands this a different President who has a new strategy to win in the long-time in trade.
After all the WTO, that Trump pulled out of, is the major reason China is now #2 in the world. We will not make that mistake again.
I would not say the U.S. Trade Team is "clueless." It is Krugman who doesn't understand our resolve to start winning again!
1
@Prof. Jai Prakash Sharma: The Huawei matter pertains to an alleged violation of the economic isolation of Iran imposed by Trump after he pulled the US out of the Iran nuclear agreement.
1
President George H.W. Bush was a mentch whether he did some things wrong or you didn't agree with him, a class act and the same can be said for President Obama. The contrast between them and our present 'leader' could not be more stark. In our nostalgia for them we recognize the incompetence of that present occupant.
When he did nothing to screw up the G20 meeting we made a collective sigh of relief knowing his history of messing up trade deals and agreements to limit climate change. he like a small boy does things just because he can and hatred for his predecessors. What he knows about trade or anything else for that matter could fit in a thimble.
Did he learn anything about being a president by listening to the tributes for president George H.W. Bush? In those messages were direct hints of what we want a president to be. But one of his major faults is obliviousness and that will never allow him to learn anything about being a president And until he is out of office we can not help but fear for our country and the world which he uses as a big play thing.
15
@just Robert
You summed up our " fearless leader" perfectly.
He wants to have fun and whatever he wants whenever he wants witj mo interference from anyone.
He says whatever gets him a cheering crowd with no regard for the truth.
He is exactly like a spoiled little boy in a 72 year old body.
It's very telling that even Tucker Csrlson has turned against Trump.
1
So far since Donald Trump's Trade war with China we have real-world outcomes already impacting American manufacturing and US jobs:
impact #1 - BMW, the largest auto exporter by value in the U.S.
stopped exporting the X3 crossover from Spartanburg to China and began making more of the S.U.V.s in plants in Shenyang, China, and Rosslyn, South Africa.
impact #2 - CEO of Ford, Jim Hackett said that his company faces $1 billion in lost profits from President Donald Trump's tariffs.
To quote Jim, “The metals tariffs took about $1 billion in profit from us — and the irony is we source most of that in the U.S. today anyways,” ...“If it goes on longer, there will be more damage.”
Impact # 3 - Recent Stock market crashes, erased all of 2018 gains for both Dow, S&P 500.
And Trump calls himself a dealmaker?! Deals are supposed to help Americans not hurt them!
33
Who knew Trade was so COMPLICATED !!
22
Dr. Krugman from the time Abraham Lincoln signed into law the Tariff of 1861 until 1913 tariffs averaged above 40 percent. What is your response the following observation from Dr. Ravi Batra’s “The Myth of Free Trade the Pooring of America”
“Between 1869 and 1899, import volume of international trade fell far short of the growth in economic activity. Foreign competition became insignificant to most U.S. manufactures. Here, then, was the classic profile of an inward-looking economic system—one for which the advocates of free trade reserve their direst predictions. Here is a society which, according to their doctrine, would fritter away its precious resource; a society where the absence of foreign rivalry would lead to choking prices and shoddy products; where producers would have no incentive to innovate and improve; in short, a society that would gradually slide into mediocrity and even poverty”
“What actually happened over these years is only too well known. The gross national product of the United States quadrupled between 1869 and 1900 when measured in constant (1929) dollars. In spite of a mushrooming population, real wages jumped 50 percent, retail prices tumbled 37 percent, and annual per capita income rose from $223 in 1869 to almost $500 in 1900.”
3
What happened as a result of that, you ask? The Great Depression.
12
@James H. Murphy
Mr. Murphy, the US was a frontier economy in a land with enormous natural resources. Today it is a mature economy with oligarchs grabbing an increasing proportion of what bounty remains.
25
The arrival of 12 million immigrants from Europe and a structural shift in the economy from agriculture to manufacturing during this period do a much better job of explaining the outcome than the effect of tariffs.
18
I wouldn’t be surprised if he is giving someone a advanced knowledge of his wild messaging swings in order to profit from playing both up and down sides of the market.
44
@James
You give him too much credit. He'd bet the wrong way on the effect of his random rants.
1
The contrast between Obama's carefully thought out, deliberate, collaborative and effective negotiations with Iran to produce a win-win situation regarding their nuclear weapons program and Trump's slipshod, solo trade "deals" could not be more profound. The former was a textbook model of cooperative diplomacy that achieved its desired outcome (until it was unceremoniously flushed down the toilet by #45), while the current floundering of this seemingly rudderless ship of state will long be remembered as a classic non-example.
Ah, the fickle floundering of the American electorate! We elected a black man thinking he would be a commoner like the rest of us, and instead he revealed himself to be erudite, noble and elegant. Then, we elected someone we thought would be a 21st century version of an aristocratic superhero, and instead wound up with a sniveling, corrupt carnival barker.
I find myself wondering whether Ortega y Gasset may have been right all along - entrusting common folks with the responsibility of choosing their own leaders is a very risky process indeed. At this point I'm thinking a halfway decent cell phone app would do a better job of choosing a good president.
25
Dr. Krugman always so on point! We continue to see no push back from Congress where we have toady republicans who care more about getting re-elected than taking care of the needs of the US .
17
One cursory review of Trump's abysmal "career" as a "businessman" should be all one needs to know to realize that Trump hasn't the foggiest idea how construct, negotiate and then live up to any sort of "deal". All Trump knows is "The Art of the Con" - and in particular, how to "sell ice cubes to Eskimos".
That's what Trump sold America in 2016. Pure vaporware. And nearly half the voters were conned. Bigly.
It's obvious that Trump knows NOTHING about Economics (including how tariffs work and their "ripple effects").
All Trump knows is "PR spin" (which includes "truthful hyperbole" - aka "lies" - which he openly bragged about in his book The Art of the Deal). Trump's sole talent is to keep the three shells moving so fast the the rubes (We the People) can never keep track of which shell has the bean under it.
In short, Trump is Professor Marvel from L. Frank Baum's The Wizard of Oz. Except Professor Marvel had a conscience buried beneath all his flim-flamery - while Trump is a hard core sociopath.
Not a comfortable thought indeed.
27
@Dave:Trump is a zero-sum gamer in a world seeking win-win solutions.
It has occurred to me that Trump during much of his business life was supported by his father. And Donald never really had to develop much in the way of his own business skills. Once his father was gone Donald found that he had no business sense at all and had to accept the aid of a substitute "sugar daddy" . Donald now owes Putin only what little he has of a soul and we will have to pay the rest.
14
Tariff Man is in dispair. What with the meeting with the G-20 leaders and the President Bush funeral coverage in the media, he was not the center of attention, not by a long shot His only real goal in life, from the start. That, and selfish pursuit of money, never mind the law and noble generousity.
Watch now, how he tries to upright himself. But someone who is grossly off-balance is likely to fall on his rump. Trump will be a sight to see in the coming days. Can yolu say Cohen. Can you say Mueller.
12
Trump won the White house by cultivating hatred and anger in the public to gain following. It's very basic despot psychology. Now Trump is victimizing the American people with a large consumer tax. Those who voted for Trump deserve to suffer for their ignorant following of Trump. We have to suffer because of Trump voters ignorance. China is just a diversion , to generate hatred and anger to keep Americans ignorant. Trump uses psychology just as I would expect from a Devil. So where are the opposing Angels to fight Trump? They want "Bipartisanship", an example of true masochism.
5
@Shakinspear: Trump was elected by people whose desires amount to wishing their neighbor's cow dead.
As a businessperson, Trump is especially unqualified to decide tariffs. His businesses (real estate, casinos) are all local, with no import or export considerations. At least Ivanka knows importing.
3
The headline says it all.
Can Trump close a deal? After all, he signed a (barely changed) new NAFTA then immediately tweeted that he doesn't approve of it. What was comical was how he literally signed that document in an incorrect location at a public event while the other national leaders rolled there eyes at his mistake.
Trump's business acumen is fictitious.
He's bankrupted lots of his own ventures and had to settle out of court for fraud many times (e.g. Trump Steaks, Trump Vodka, Trump Casino, Trump University).
My guess is when Democrats subpoena his tax returns, or Muller demands them, they'll show Trump is essentially broke and his "Organization" is a perpetual Ponzi scheme. Worse still would be those returns showing him receiving Saudi and/or Russian money since he cannot get loans from most lending institutions due to his poor business track record.
13
@Question Everything: Trump's MO is to be such a stinkpot that people will pay to be rid of him.
Simply stated Trump is incompetent, ignorant, intellectually deficient, and psychiatrically unstable and should not be meddling in trade policies and tariffs. Of course the question should be asked what is he doing acting as President.
What is wrong with our country and our electorate and the Republican Party that this unqualified and
disturbed man is allowed to hold this office with its unchecked power for even a moment?
This is madness and poses the greatest danger to our prosperity and national security.
No wonder he had Putin’s support!
14
The man is a walking disaster, destroying everything in his path. Pretty easy to see why he is the bankruptcy king.
12
Our democratic system of elections let a total boob into the highest office of the land. Why is our Presidency the only job with no vetting? Like most people I know, Trump is disliked and mistrusted. He is also mistrusted by most other countries, allies and foes alike. We now must deal with this autocratic, mean spirited, hateful and self proclaimed deal maker. He thinks international trade is a simple game and he has to win at all cost. Because he is not smart, his other characteristics will take us to destruction. Is anyone interested in preventing such a clown from occupying the oval office in the future? Like in all things, we need regulations, and/ or standards for the highest job we have.
4
Here’s an idea for some voters (the decisive minority): think of our country and voting as a responsibility, instead of a fun way of revenge.
9
"it's not a comforting thought". We can say this about just about every idea Trump puts forward.
2
Profound. I gave my comments on Paul Wortman's
East Setauket, NY comment.
I have been listening to the new Democratic leadership that will be in office in less than a month and from statements made by Mrs. Pelosi and the new majority leader Steny Hoyer, I believe Tariff Man will come up against some check and balance kryptonite soon. Our China hands, EastAsia, and Macroeconomic experts need to think this through.
I also think we should put some time in on energy policy, the oil, natural gas, and coal economy must adapt to a new source of energy in the most stable manner possible.
If the IMF, World Bank, UN, WTO can't handle this we might want to start rethinking the World Order and how it is to be politically led without War, Famine, Disease and Poverty with the goal of social and economic stability.
For sure, the House in their Constitutional Role has their work cut out for them. Clear heads and our best leaders explaining positions to the public over the next two years of campaigning for the 2020 election
4
"There was a lot of talk about a broad popular backlash against globalization. Over the past two years, however, it has become clear that this backlash was both smaller and shallower than advertised."
Mr. Krugman is detached from reality
The revolution against Macron, promoter of "Monadalisationn" France is exactly that
2
Like with so many of Trump's deceptions, there is a grain of truth (a small grain) to it. China is a bad actor in world trade and needs to be brought to heel. But Trump always uses a flamethrower when a velvet glove is required. He thinks you show strength through bombast, machismo, and shooting yourself in the foot.
And the world laughs.
It is so ironic that this man-child used to scream "The world is laughing at us." Of course the world wasn't laughing then but now it is in tears. Recall when he drew chuckles rather than the applause he so desperately desires at the UN? He was actually surprised.
Such is the blessed existence of a delusional ignoramus.
As has been pointed out, Trump:
1. Picks a fight
2. Escalates the conflict to crisis with bizarre statements and posturing.
3. Calls a meeting with the other party.
4. Claims he solved the problem.
5. Nothing of substance is accomplished.
6. Trump claims victory though absolutely nothing has changed.
7. Trump repeats the process all the while showering himself with accolades.
Pathetic!
19
we're watching a nervous breakdown as it's happening. sorry state of affairs.
3
How does the GOP not rein in this clueless president before he destroys the economy ,the planet and the folks he calls losers. the Con Artist was playing with real estate .casinos .vodka and Trump University and 4000 lawsuits later folks got burned, Now the damage Trump unleashes runs from starving children in Yemen to midwest farmers who lost soybean biz and the ugly political atmosphere we all could see at Bush 41 funeral when he entered the room.
7
@REBCO Either the Republicans are frightened of him (especially the mainstream ones who've probably never had to deal with this kind of vain, petty, vulgar man) or they wish to maintain power and press on with their agenda.
John McCain has passed away; so many mainstream Republicans have retired or lost election; Lindsay Graham has become a self-parody.
They are in effect, leaderless.
One more time, any clear thinking person knows how this story ends. A giant economic collapse, where DJT walks away clean and SS, medicare, etc.are destroyed. This collapse will make the Great Depression look like a boom.
Any economist worth his weight will acknowledge that the National Debt, not the Deficit, is now impossible to reduce to any significant extent. Just stopping the Debt growing seems to be realistically impossible, yet you hold tight to the fantasy that the debt can be handled and reduced.
The only way out (which is really no way out) is to inflate (ref. T. Piketty, Captial), but even this option is setting like the sun. This is Reader's Digest version of Marx
Now the result of this is unknown. As a recovering humanist, who has read too much & suffered the horrific withdraws of the opioid optimism (i.e., I saw what Kant couldn't see, the thing-in-itself) I can tell you it's over
What will the hillbillies do that decided to vote against liberals no matter what and rely on SS and disability as second career, medicare, Medicaid etc.?
Here is what the Titan can tell you for certain: it is going to happen and all the OP-Eds will not change it. We Greeks have wrote myths about it, i.e., fate, folly, suffering & punishment
"The Fates, said the Stoics, guide the man who wishes to be guided; the man who does not wish to be guided they drag along with them."
Julian Marias
"Enough has been written"
Otto Rank
Prometheus in Greek means to know before
Why can't we use our 2.2 million incarcerated prisoners to produce worthless junk in the United States? Problem Solved!
1
"The Art of the Imaginary, Mercurial, Totally Concocted, Distorted, Corrupt, Underhanded, Snake Oil Deal" ... a best seller for MAGA crowd.
Trump has graduated from putting his toe in the water to wading in the La Brea Tar Pits and he is taking everyone with him. With his adventuresome incompetence, these remaining two years offer a grid of steep downhills.
Mr. Krugman's comment that China is a bad actor is a vast understatement. It's not limited to theft of intellectual property.
There's no equality or reciprocity doing business between China and the US. There is no private property in China. All Chinese companies are owned by the government, all real estate, factories, and buildings are owned by the government and leased by companies that built and occupy them.
However, when a Chinese company such as Hong Kong listed WH Group buys a US firm such as Smithfield Foods the international pork conglomerate; or the Chinese company LianLuo (Liaison Interactive) (SZSE: 002280) formerly known as Beijing Digital Grid Technology Co., Ltd buys NewEgg; or when Chinese companies buy New York real estate for $3.7 BN, as they did in 2017, THE CHINESE ACTUALLY OWN IT FOREVER UNDER US LAW!
That's not what happens in China. And that's a big problem. Chinese interests the US can, but foreign white devils in China can't. And, China makes money making goods that American and international ownership make big profits selling to American chumps scrambling for work.
America! Welcome to the rule of man. In China there is no law, no individual human rights, no fair trials; but plenty of executions at stadiums on Fridays with ambulances standing by.
Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai, Deng (To be rich is glorious) Xiaoping are politely clapping in heaven while
Xi (Emp,, er President for Life) Junping eats a "beautiful" piece of cake with Donald Trump.
3
Trump’s policies have nothing to do with helping all Americans. He wants no sanctions against Russia and Saudi Arabia because they have showered him with money. It’s all about him! He is a dangerous man and none of us are safe.
1
What the founding fathers failed to put in place was a way to keep citizens from becoming complacent. Our population is largely ignorant of how tenuous a grip we have on democracy, how it works, and how determined the rich and powerful are to take it from us. Education, obviously is the answer, but... Betsy DeVos. In their defense, the fathers couldn’t have forseen that the beneficiaries of their hard work would just sit on the couch and watch Fox News while the House was getting robbed.
2
Meanwhile, the trade deficit rose to its highest since 2008 in October, and the deficit with China reached an all time high.
Winning.
3
Dem House can call them in: Mnuchin, Navarro, Lighthizer, let's not forget Kelly. Ask them what was the substance of the meeting & what was agreed.
1
Restraining Trump is not about persuading him, personally. It’s about Congress. The Dems will soon run the House and will have no difficulty challenging Trump. But the Senate is controlled by the GOP, so there is the nub of the control problem.
The Mercers, the Uihleins, the Kochs, the Adelsons etc, a handful of (bonkers) billionaires, run the GOP.
So the solution to the Trump problem boils down to persuading this cabal that trade wars are not in their interest. Unfortunately, these folks are well past the point where their personal wealth can be seriously put at risk by economically insane policies, and what is worse, they are ideologues intent on putting themselves in charge of the USA as a “Christian” white supremacist nation, regardless of whether half the country will be made opioid addicts and homeless in the process.
So getting these Oligarchs to view Trump as a problem rather than as their circus barker will be difficult. The alternative of prying the GOP out of their hands doesn’t look easier.
But those are the two ways out of this mess.
2
If any filmmaker in the US reads this please use this as a title for a film on Trump's Presidency: A Rebel Without a Clue. (Krugman) In a world where the US president's policies and Russian objectives coincide on a regular basis, and where alternate truth mendacity, and outright lies are the norm. Trump is not only intent on destroying America's international reputation, and economy but the planet as well.
1
Trump has succeeded in spoiling a long friendship and alliance between the US and Canada. He is literally treating us as a threat and enemy. Shame eh.
3
Trump’s pathological dishonesty, chronic puffery, disregard for facts and lack of informed understanding, including about the English language, are what prompts him to boast that this or that deal will be “incredible.”
Sadly, he’s correct; “incredible” means “impossible to believe.”
2
#25A
Who hasn't Trump alienated, besides billionaires and fools who are too dumb to know their interests?
Landslide Democrats in 2020.
2
“Loyalty to Trump” - acts like a mafia chief - even to disdainfully handing a coat to the military side who escorted him to his seat at GHWB’s funeral. Not Melania’s coat - his coat. We wonder every day at the motivation of his loyalists- even more so when we compare him to his predecessors - there are no redeeming graces. The Boor in China’s shop.
2
To quote an optimistic Samantha Bee, "Mueller Christmas."
1
Trump is frog marching the United States toward a recession. So what? He's very good at going bankrupt, excellent at claiming credit for himself as a winner when everything turns bad for everyone else.
To say that Trump is overconfident in his abilities is about like saying a single engine prop plane is as good as a 747. He has eaten a steady diet of his own PR for close to 50 years and it has made him fat in the head (and elsewhere, judging by his bulging belly on the golf courses). He really believes that messing over contractors and others who actually built his towers is the same as dealing with China, Russia or North Korea. He looks in the mirror and not only perceives a 35 year old man looking back, he sees a genius.
He is a dangerous man. Dangerous to himself, to all of us, to the world. Blundering through his days, he might accidentally do some minor good, particularly when it comes to China which, as far as I can tell, is trying to rape the entire world's technologies (especially ours) and make itself into the single most powerful, forceful economy of the 21st century.
Meanwhile, in their greed for lower costs and higher profits, American companies are merrily shipping our tech away as fast as it will go. What would happen if we actually had to make a computer or a smartphone here in a time of crisis or world war? Could we do it?
So far, we have avoided any head-on crashes with the Trump chaos. There's still a lot of time. Two years.
1
Possible areas of bipartisan agreement:
Stop the trade war effective immediately.
Also, prohibit the Executive from…
• Starting trade wars
• Entering new trade agreements (NAFT2)
• Raising tariffs
• Voiding existing trade agreements (NAFTA)
• Voiding existing disarmament agreements (INF)
• Leaving the World Trade Organization
• Leaving NATO
• Leaving the UN
• Starting a nuclear war
…without the approval of a Congressional supermajority.
Watch the stock market soar.
Business needs a certain degree of predictability in order to perform long term planning.
All I really want to know is, when will Mexico step up and pay fo that wall?
"Virtual dictatorial power over trade....". How is it that President Obama seemed to have been frustrated at each and every turn on virtually everything he tried to do his last 2 years especially and yet this charlatan, by Executive Order and through sheer force of ego, seems much more empowered than any other president in my lifetime, and I was born during the Kennedy Administration. I just don't understand how he's been able to cause such chaos notwithstanding the Republican brain-dead Congress never trying to stop him. For the first time in my life, I sincerely believe that the powers of the presidency should truly be scaled back. I just don't know why it took Trump to bring me to this conclusion - his "take no prisoner" approach to the law is one thing but while he has committed several impeachable offenses, it does seem that when pushed to their limit, the innate powers of his office are far greater than I ever realized. I think that we should all be looking at that and discussing ways to curtail it permanently because no one can predict that this going to be the only time a vermin-person gets elected to that once high and now greatly diminished office.
3
Good Lord. We elected a cretin, criminal, con man and would-be authoritarian as President and people are surprised that bad things are happening. Elections have consequences and sometimes they aren't good. Sometimes the consequences are even disastrous.
3
You don't need to be a psychologist to see that our trade policy is now led by someone with a profound personality disorder. It's written all over his face. For Trump it's not about trade, it's about dominating his opponents on issues he has a grievance about. As the article says, he doesn't understand trade.
In Trump's world everything has to be win. And when it isn't he creates the myth that it is. Trump is an unabashed fabulist running a trade policy he neither understands, nor can really win. China certainly needed to be aggressively confronted for its trade practices, but Trump is the wrong person with the wrong motivations to do it as is becoming quite evident.
10
Thanks Mr. Krugman for the explanation of presidential powers regarding international trade agreements, and also your excellent commentary. One thing I find unfortunate is that Trump did actually successfully identify some areas of trade that were unfair and needed fixing, but then was so incompetent and undiplomatic in his methods that he has caused more damage in the long run. Whoever the next president us will have a lot of repairing to do (and not just in the area of trade).
3
I'm confused.
Professor Krugman says: "Let’s be clear: China is not a good actor in the world economy. It engages in real misbehavior, especially with regard to intellectual property: The Chinese essentially rip off technology."
Does the good Professor think we Americans are so dumb we don't know this? Yes, we're in favor of trade, but we don't like our technology being ripped off. A lot of us, even liberals like me, are glad that Trump is (finally) addressing this problem, after other recent Presidents simply let them steal our technology so as not to rock the boat. Those of us who don't like American technology being ripped off are the constituency for this trade realignment with China.
So, are we thrilled it's Trump doing the negotiating? Unfortunately, he's the only President willing to do so. Obama let them rip us off. Bush let them rip us off. I'd rather it was Obama playing hardball, but that wasn't his style. If our only choice is Trump, I support what he's doing. I think it's important for us a nation to stand up against Chinese unfair trade practices (and militarization of the South China Sea).
So, Wall Street doesn't like it. For previous presidents, that was enough to keep them from facing China. I applaud Trump's willingness to go against Wall Street if necessary. I'm rather glad that Trump isn't taking his instructions from the stock market, or from Professor Krugman for that matter.
4
@Unconventional Liberal So you'd rather have someone running things that has no clue to what he's doing and has no interest in learning about the things he doesn't know? Just putting up the facade of being a tough guy is good enough? Donald Trump is the ultimate bully and we all know what happens to bullies when someone stands up to them. At least most of us do, it seems others have to learn the hard way.
Trump has no understanding of trade because he doesn't understand the very idea of what trade is - ideally, an exchange between two or more parties for mutual benefit.
Trump's view of the world is of a zero-sum game. The idea of both sides benefitting from an agreement is not comprehensible to him. If the one side is gaining something, it can only mean to Trump that the other side must be losing - and losing something up with which he will not put.
It's not for nothing that one of his favorite insults is to call someone a loser. It's the ultimate weakness in his world - so much so that he's incapable of admitting to himself when he's not winning.
It's also why so many of his business ventures have turned out badly. He's the archetype of the "looters" in Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged": greedy, egotistical, amoral, incompetent, criminal....
And he's surrounded himself with more just like him.
7
Donald Trump is the "Great Pretender". He strikes a pose and declares every thing he touches to be a "tremendous success", despite all glaring evidence to the contrary.
Trump's delusional perspective was a natural fit with the contemporary GOP which is desperately attempting to cling to power through voter suppression, Senatorial dereliction of duty (Merrick Garland) and perverse intellectual dishonesty.
The perils connected to having the Great Pretender navigating the U.S. ship of state are increasingly apparent to those of us who choose to remain in the reality-based world. It is an open question what will remain to be salvaged after the ego-maniacal pretender has run his destructive course.
4
"The Chinese essentially rip off technology. So there is a case for toughening our stance on trade."
And the other side of the coin is that copyright & patent laws are so heavily slanted in favor of corporations that the whole world is held hostage to these unfair, unreasonable, illegal and unconstitutional corporate monopolies.
Patent and copyright was originally and specifically intended for actual authors and inventors of their original work, not thieving opportunists in the guise of commerce hiding behind corporate veils. And no, 'corporations are not people'.
(Hint: replace limited monopolies with mandatory royalties).
Ok, back to Trump bashing...
The true imaginary deal is the deal that the West struck with China. The elites and economists like Mr. Krugman believed that as China became more prosperous it would become open. The bargain they struck allowed China to destroy manufacturing on a globally unprecedented scale while furthering its ambition to become THE superpower. It is disturbing to see the elites refusing to acknowledge their role in the mess we have today. Mr. Trump might not be a great intellect in how he deals with China or trade. However the left and the economists who promoted what has ultimately become a Faustian bargain stand even more discredired.
1
And you solve that by declaring canada and europe enemies of the US ? Or by cozieing up against president putin who invades as he pleases ? Or ?
People misunderstood Trump. He never said he would "make great deals." He said he would "make great grandiose and fabricated pronouncements about fake deals." It's a subtle difference that escapes many people.
Remember what else Trump said: "Only I, and I alone, can break it."
All trump's lies, treason, and personal and political corruption pale in comparison to his sheer incompetence on the economic front. If the economy implodes before the 2020 elections, despite his blaming the Dems and everyone else but himself, he will be political toast. The trouble is everyone, including most trump voters, will suffer, except no doubt his wealthy enablers, sycophants and fellow one percenters who will walk away richer than ever.
1
There is a silver lining to Trump's incompetence: at the rate he is going with his utter lack of comprehension about tariffs and their effects on the American consumer, 2020 can be the Return of the Democrats to the White House, when we can all breathe a sigh of relief.
1
Unfortunately, we are stuck with trump for (maybe) 2 more years. He certainly knows how to get his 'base' riled up, but he is sorely lacking in the 'solutions' department. Also unfortunately, we are stuck with a republican-controlled Senate, which has been almost completely unwilling to cross or challenge him on anything. Like the proverbial 'bull in a china shop,' he charges around unchecked, upsetting everything in sight, while his party is silent. The Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives is a small step toward controlling some of his actions, but we won't be safe from a lot of his actions unless the Senate grows a spine, and/or he is defeated or removed in 2020.
They say 'Bad money drives out Good', and this is certainly true of Trump's effect on the Republican party. Whatever was left of moderation in politics among that bunch is long, long gone. Same is true of the Executive branch of the government - Trump appoints heads of agencies with the all-but-stated intent of dismantling said agency or creating results which are the opposite of the agency's purpose. As a result we have the least skillful, least experienced, least honest leaders running the various departments meant to keep the country functioning. If Trumpmerica were an airplane it would be on a collision course with a mountain or an ocean, and closing fast.
The apologists want to point to all the Big Deals their guy has done: the Taming of Rocket Man (he now just keeps quiet building bombs - he learned not to tweet about it); Telling Off The Leader of China (dinner and a photo-op); Fixing The Bad NAFTA (informed analysts say it's just a new paint-job); and, of course, Tariff Man - betcha a crisp new Franklin you can get any exemption you want if the price is right: meet the guy at Trump Hotel DC (you're buying dinner, of course) and bring cash to get things started.
Look, you can't hire a thief to take inventory of your warehouse because you think he's more skillful at valuing merchandise - then be surprised to find more empty shelves when he's done than when he started.
Crooks do what they do....
Somebody has to rein in this guy, and soon. Hurry, Robert!!
3
Well, what else is Trump supposed to do? China has been cheating and we all know it. We used to like cheap Chinese products, but increasingly we see the actual costs. People want change. They want some of those good manufacturing jobs to return.
Business likes certainty and big business likes all the money it makes on cheap Chinese labor. Business also owns Congress, so they aren't going to do any thing to rock the boat.
It's Capital versus Labor and Congress is entirely on the side of Capital.
Tariffs turn out to be the one lever the president can pull all by himself and that's what he's doing. Trump may be a dangerous lunatic or a stable genius; either way, he is exposing a lot of flaws in the system and, eventually, might scare Congress into actually doing its job --- maybe that means impeachment, maybe it means changing tariff laws, but it can't mean pretending that they are powerless to, you know, legislate.
1
"... U.S. trade law gives the president a lot of discretionary power over trade, as part of a system that curbs the destructive influence of corrupt, irresponsible members of Congress. And that setup worked very well for more than 80 years."
It seems that the alternative is worse - but are you saying that many corrupt, irresponsible members of Congress are worse than one corrupt, irresponsible President? This is confusion.
One of the problems is too much power on the presidency without restrain (it is idiotic to think that every president will be a Lincoln or a Roosevelt). We are paying for it. And the other, much larger problem, is that while Trump is unimaginably ignorant and despicable, the real problem is the Republican Party, rife with corrupt and irresponsible members, with little regard for the Constitution. The rest follows through.
1
So why is Trump peddling the tariff idea in the face of general opposition? Is it because it was his one idea going back to the 80s and he's just too stubborn or unintelligent to change? Or is it because a tariff war and general trade chaos works to the advantage of certain authoritatian leaders? I would really like to know the Saudi Arabian and Russian governments' take on all this. As for 45's competence in trade, we all know his own skill is self-promotion - period.
3
On the other hand, the free traders like Cohn and Mnuchin and others have enabled China to be a bad actor without consequences. They are so afraid they will lose their profits that they won’t take the strong actions needed to force China to behave. It may be that nothing will change Chinese behavior. The alternative is to disengage from China and work with our democractic partners in Europe and Asia to do the same. Losing China as a trading partner will raise prices in the US, and reduce profits of global companies that want a piece of Chinese growth. But American companies thinking they will be able to do in China what they done in Europe are as delusional as Trump. China will steal their IP and cast them aside when there is nothing left to steal.
Trump despite his claims that he is really smart(perhaps a genius) is in real time inarticulate and basically stupid. He is unable or unwilling to analyze complex problems to achieve rational solutions. Reading takes time.Watching Fox is easier. The stock market is giving Trump a failing grade. When it comes to the economy this Emperor has no clothes.
4
Trump has had a problem with facts, reality, knowledge, and expertise all his life. That's because his essence consists of lying, cheating, abuse, and bullying. No one should be surprised that he is devoid of substantive understanding about trade policy, or any desire to acquire it. As George Will put it, Trump doesn't know what it is to know anything.
3
Mr. Trump is not well! In his mind! How off the rails will the Republicans let us go? Surely they can see that Trump’s “ trade wars” have devastated the stock market. Have they amassed so much personal wealth that they’re not concerned about their retirement? How many lives have to be financially damaged before they do the job they we pay them to do?
Trump cannot be in charge. He is unfit and getting worse.
2
Our President is indeed ignorant and clueless on trade and so many other subjects and is clearly corrupt as well. It is truly sad that our system allowed 80,000 equally ignorant voters to put this man in power. He is proving without doubt that we have allowed far too much power to accrue to the executive. The fact the Republican party has totally capitulated to tRump exacerbates the problem. We must take back the country but I am far from confident there are enough thinking voters to make it happen.
2
A narcissist abuser in a spousal relationship does everything he can to be the one conduit, in or out, of the household. Relatives do not get toes the abuse, and the abused does not get to leave the house- maybe for work, but nothing else. Trump has a binary button on Trade. He will definitely use it, and in his 300 person old Real Estate businesses, he would wait until the right moment to play his card. The Trade war will escalate again, as rump likes to play with binary options. Consistent with his bankruptcies, he personally profits, the casinos go up in smoke. Now its the county.
Underneath everything is President Trump's cognitive functioning. Lee and Glass wrote in Politico nearly a year ago about signs of Trump's mental issues: "...His verbal aggressiveness, boasting about sexual assaults, inciting violence in others and the taunting of a hostile nation with nuclear weapons. Additional traits that are concerning are impulsiveness, recklessness, paranoia and rage reactions; a loose grip on reality with a poor understanding of consequences; a lack of empathy and belligerence toward others; and a constant need to demonstrate power."
There is a case to be made for invoking the 25th Amendment based upon his mental health issues alone.
3
Sometimes I wonder why trade deficit has such a bad name. After all, it means you get more goods and services from you partner that he gets from you. Yes, you pay your partner more that he does pay you, but that only means that you partner has more money to... buy more goods and services from you in the future, which would seem to correct the problem (forget about financial possibilities such as invest or buy stocks or lend, eventually these are pointless unless you consume at some point, money itself is worth only what it can buy).
1
Gee, what a surprise. I’ve made credit mistakes in the past when I was a young upstart; little did I know my future credit depended on it. Credit I couldn’t get. Why? Because the banks rightly projected my past behaviour suggested my future behaviour. We’ve all learned about Trump’s past behaviour. A total, complete, unadulterated con.
So there you are in a nutshell.
13
We live in a co dependent interdependent world. Our lives are intertwined in millions of invisible ways with the rest of the world, human and non human, material and non material. We can try hard to create barriers, walls, fences, barricades, against one another, but the fact is we have always been connected, from ancient times. Humans did not spring from nowhere, they migrated inter married inter bred spread explored evolved changed skin color but essentially they are a singular "conscious" organism.
1
Hopefully, he'll be at least temporarily distracted by the sentencing guideline reports that come out today. Even a hint at the information they have on Manafort and Cohen will indeed distract him, hopefully for weeks if not days. Then the professionals Trump hired to cover for him can help smooth things out.
2
America is used to making its money on conquest, whle China is making its money on business. This way of living for America, isn't sustainable. The cracks are showing all around.
3
@Carolyn Egeli, China not being a democracy will ultimately work against it, history will be the witness. They got away with enforcing one child policy. They got away with silencing voices of free thinkers artists poets writers intellectuals. They got away with crushing monks in Tibet, now Uygurs in Xinjiang...eventually karma will surface its righteous head..
From ancient times China has suffered internal chaos and defeat, innumerable times, reinventing itself each time. It is a complex multiethnic nation that has used authoritarian clasp to control its masses of more than a billion people. Hmmm
2
White wealthy business people were a big factor in Trump's election. I think of them as "voters without a clue". I liked the article Prof. Krugman, but have come to believe that people get the government they deserve.
5
@sgoodwin
Except....3 million more people voted for the other candidate, and 33 million MORE people (93 million) "voted" for Libertarian, Green, or "None of the Above".
So while Trump got 63 million votes, 160 million did NOT vote for him! (I blame the stay-at-homes and 3rd party voters who didn't care for Clinton or didn't realize Trump was infinitely worse).
And it wasn't just Trump. 24 Republican Senate seats were contested, and 10 were vulnerable. Dems picked up 3 of those, in total.
1
@Dadof2 I take it you're making my point? 160 million did not vote for him. Of that number, those who voted, but not for him, stupidly split their votes. Those who didn't, stupidly stayed home. And where is the tidal wave of disgust and demand for ending gerrymandering? Again, people get the government they deserve.
Suffering a President with no clue about trade makes us a nonsecure territory for foreign (and domestic) investment because it translates to not having a reliable set of rules new (and existing) investment requires.
Is like going from development to underdevelopment. Developing countries in Latin America in the late 80s and 90s had to become reliable to foreign investment by adopting laws and policies that were transparent and stable, including joining the then GATT, now WTO.
This President provides what investors hate the most: uncertainty.
2
Many of Trump’s wins are imaginary. Trump is a fantasist. He is wrecking the economy.
12
A lot of the problems with our foreign policy and trade management appear to be similar to the way in which we manage the illegal immigration problems. We have laws and regulations that are not enforced. We make pronouncements and do not follow through. With sane diplomacy we were able to address the Chinese's past pattern of devaluing their currency to an unfair advantage without creating financial chaos. It is important to understand, however, that while Trump is a crude embarrassment as a president who is openly doing what was done by prior republican administrations, seeking to roll back New Deal/Great Society social programs and providing windfalls to the investment class via tax cuts to increase their holdings. I agree with Krugman that he lacks the capacity to understand trade issues. He appears to be the wrong man in the wrong place and we have the corruption of both the republicans and the democrats to thank for this.
1
The question is not whether trade is good. The question is whether trade is being regulated in the interest of corporations or the people -- the workers, consumers, citizens and voters who are struggling to build a future for themselves and their families. Trade treaties are just one element of government policies that regulate economic activity. The Republican President declares (and maybe even believes) renegotiating trade will create the vibrant economy with jobs that enable ordinary Americans to build a future for themselves and their families.
Nothing will change until we have a President and Congress that are determined to champion the interests of ordinary Americans just as FDR and a Democratic Congress did 85 years ago.
21
Thanks, Paul. A concise and helpful explanation. You conclude that "...it's hard to see how he can be contained." Let me suggest that the leaders of the majority party, the Democrats, Schumer, Pelosi, etc. and the leaders of the businesses which are being hurt by Mr. Trump's policies (who, by the way now have received the full benefit of Mr. Trump's raid on the national treasury through his tax law legislation) stop cowering in imitation of "the silence of the lambs" and expend at least some overt effort to protect citizens, shareholders and stakeholders.
9
At the heart of the problem is protection for intellectual property. Frankly, though, I'm not sure who is the bigger abuser of it. The people who persist in making it last for a long time, or the people who in the face of that reality take shortcuts, such as stealing. Some compromise may be in order.
We see patent suits all the time, here in the US, between US companies, and US companies and foreign ones. I'm not sure though what a foreign company is when our US companies seem foreign, too. Why exactly, the government would play such a role in protecting and adjudicating disputes seems misplaced to a large degree, but then again, that is why we have courts and Supreme Court Justices that are basically corporatists, to more and more of a degree than any other time with which I am familiar. One would think that the money could be better spent on doing research for the benefit of the common man.
US companies do not want to give up a dime, so this will be a contracted affair. The best we can hope for is we reach a status quo. It will be at another sacrifice for the common man in terms of increased prices, but it will at least permit a more stable environment from which we can all move on to the next election. We go it alone right now because we are alone. We have made our bed. Whether or not we will ever be able to rejoin the world remains to be seen.
5
"So the future of world trade, with all it implies for the world economy, now hinges largely on Donald Trump’s mental processes."
Yes, Donald Trump is a very, very limited leader. I would say outright disastrous.
However, the reason he is in this position of power is:
--> Democracy (American Style).
The older I get Paul, the more I really think that we have come to the limits of American Democracy, and, perhaps it is failing in front of our eyes. I don't think Trump is the problem.
I think he is a symptom of the problem.
Maybe it is not Trump that is the problem.
Maybe it is the system that gave birth to him.
30
@Michael
I don't think that, while very tempting, we have to lament that we've reached the 'end point' of American Democracy. For example, this just past election saw the House of Representatives switch from republican party to the Democrats' control with the largest record number of individual's to ever accomplish such a feat. This happened despite the ruling party having heavily 'Gerrymandered Districts' in their favor, along with numerous voter suppression rules specifically enacted to thwart any flipping of the Political Party in charge to stop the Democrats' from even having a chance to take control of the 'People's House'. At this point in time, 40 House seats flipped from conservative to liberals.
We even managed to convert seven(7) Governor's and Legislature's from the stranglehold of the trumpian's to the progressives. This one party rule that allowed the Dictator in Chief to run America like a "Banana Republic" is no longer in play. Democrats can stop this worst case scenario for the foreseeable future. Enough of us got out to vote. And there can be more to show up in the two(2) year cycle. Nothing suceeds like success!
@Michael Trump is the death-dealing infection you get when the surgery you undergo allows in a bug you hadn't counted on being quite so virulent.
China has increased its demand for oil coinciding with the year of tariffs... What Paul would say?
1
Maybe we need a new paradigm on trade. Maybe the level playing field should be the working conditions of workers employed to make or grow the product. There could be a fair trade certification based on workers rights, safety and environmental standards.
17
Would we be in this predicament if there had been a law that presidential candidates have to show the public at least 10 years of tax returns?
141
Many developing countries, including India, already have this law.
8
I agree that ‘China is not a good actor in world economy’. The ripping of technology and with no protection to intellectual property setting the stage for China to be a real threat to United States. It is unfortunate that Trump doesn’t know how to do what he wants to do. But what he wants to do is the right thing to do, viz., make China play by the same rules everyone follows in free trade. The WTO rules need to be renegotiated to protect the world trade from abuses by countries like China. Everyone should try to help to accomplish what Trump wants to do instead of making fun of his failures. The Republican Party caved in to Trump’s tantrums instead of helping him to accomplish his goals on trade vis-a-vis China. The border wall is a nonsensical distraction from serious issues. I hope, Republicans and Democrats unite and take a firm stand against abuses in trade by China, and if Trump wants to take credit for it, give it to him. Our country’s interests should rise above the partisan politics.
4
@Kodali There is no way to be for the goals of restraining China while being against Trump's ways of doing so, and thereby moving closer to accomplishing the goals. His methods are counterproduictive and he refuses to listen to reason.
Tariffs can be useful and America's policy of being all in on internationalism hasn't always helped American workers. That said, Trump's flailing trade policy that uses tariffs as a political rallying cry rather than as an instrument of economic policy is clearly not helpful.
We do need to go back to some protectionism to stabilize our economy. Tax policy that discouraged companies from taking their assets overseas would help too. Nancy Pelosi introduced such legislation in the past when Democrats controlled the House and the presidency, but that legislation got nowhere.
The most unfortunate thing about Trump's trade policy is that it will inevitably give tariffs a bad name. That will make a judicious creative use of them difficult in the future.
8
@Andrew Zuckerman Tariffs--taxes!--won't "stablize" the economy, only fixing wages and ending their stagnation and the wealth gap internally will reset growth and common sense. China is a chimera for blame and denial about a huge, growing imbalance of wealth and waste--witness the ridicule heaped upon Rep. Ocasio-Cortez for her membership in the working class, despite her win. Scorn is our problem, not China!
8
You lost me when you brought up Ocasio-Cortez. She won by a fluke, by a small minority of actual voters, in a Latino district of the Bronx.
It’s beyond me why the Democrats are hailing her as their new standard bearer. Her recent interviews also demonstrate a real lack of familiarity with just about everything.
She hasn’t even been sworn in, and centrists like me are already sick of her.
@David G Wow! This is seriously discounting on your part. Her "fluke" consisted on beating handily and even winning a primary in an adjacent congressional district as the Liberal party nominee--without her actual running--but in her district she took down the number 4 Democrat in line for the Speakership, the the last county organization boss for Queens who grew so comfortable he lived in the Washington suburbs. With his huge money lead, over $20 million, his congressional status, his control of his county organization he loss the old Molinari/Maloney district by a margin so huge it makes the total vote insignificant.
She won, not by fluke, but because she correctly read corporate politics, top controlled organizations no longer represented the people's will. Those who didn't vote had been alienated by actions before her to arrive at their indifference.
All revolutions start small! All begin with a few fellows against long odds. All change old values and practices. It is clear those who didn't vote had abandoned the status quo--their non-vote proves it.
Fluke? Already she has 20 members and potential members supporting her Green New Deal and its Select Committee and earned praise from the Speaker before being sworn in?
The real fluke is she isn't tied to corporate money or politics-as-usual and won with her authenticity and messaging. "Respect the hustle!"
Campaigned for president to shake things up. And gol-ly that's what he's doing. Anything would be an improvement.
And now the poster child for the modern, low growth, gig economy (where exports are conjured into debits and workers are asked to compete with forced labour regimes) is unhappy. Elections (counting three now: primary, general and senate) matter.
2
@Private Elections matter except when Republicans cheat to win. In 2018 the vast majority of voters repudiated Trump and Trumpism. The Senate majority represents
40% of voters. Large majorities in states like Michigan and Wisconsin voted for Democrats, yet their state legislatures retain overwhelming Republican majorities, and are now rewriting their states' laws to effectively overturn the resultsof the election.
How long do you think 2/3 of Americans are going to put with being ruled by a bit over 1/3 of Americans--and ruled as if they won100% of the vote? Sustained attempts at minority rule don't have a good track record worldwide...
76
@Ehkzu - you're right. In Wisconsin 54% of the votes went to Democrats for the state legislature; only 36 % of the seats in the state legislature are Democratic.
6
To be fair, it doesn't really matter whether import taxes are levied on the buyer or seller, since price adjustments make these equivalent. Of course people who think tariffs are a generally good idea probably don't understand this either.
4
Well, it has totally gone of the rails in China. A can of Bud still cost 5 yuan, a Subway turkey sub or a Junior Whopper 22 yuan. There are signs in the super market that say in Chinese "foreign product" - it doesn't mention the US.
It should be remembered that China is 1.2 billion person market whose middle class is still coming into its own in terms of purchasing power.
When one of my uni students told me he just passed his driving exam, I asked him what make of car he'd like to have.
He said, "Chevrolet."
6
I recently had surgery at the University of California SF Medical Center, which required a 4 day stay in the care of UCSF's superb post-op nursing staff.
While there an older Chinese woman who was an orderly heard me speak Mandarin and subsequently engaged me in brief conversations in Chinese as well as English that was accented but spoken clearly. We bantered about family, the part of China she's from and life in the US.
On the last evening before I was discharged, she asked if I understood American politics. She said her retired husband who avidly read Chinese newspapers had become morose and despondent about Trump. They came to the US over 40 years ago. Neither of them were interested in politics but since Trump's election she feels as if the country's mood has changed and even those who aren't political seem to be agitated.
Even her regular mahjong game the talk was predominately about Trump. Her Chinese friends worry Trump is becoming a dictator who causes a lot of trouble. She asked me if this could happen because she believed America was designed to prevent dictatorship through the US "basic law."
The best I could muster was that it boiled down to Trump vs. the American people and I'd put my money on the American people.
She and her husband will retire back in China because "it's unbearable to grow old in the US. But now Trump is fighting China, I'm afraid the Trump curse will follow us home."
At the door she said "I am so sad for America."
439
@Yuri Asian I lived and taught in China, even politics, believe it or not? at an Ontario curriculum private college in Guangzhou. The Chinese people are fiecely patriotic and when this attack on China becomes public knowledge they will stop buying American products en mass as European cars are an option, even French ones. When China turns against a country, it is felt at all levels, teachers can no longer get jobs, visas cannot be renewed students will no longer apply to US universities. So Trump needs to be careful, I suggest he looks the word up.
45
@David
You are so right. The foolishness of Trump and his cohorts such as Peter Navarro becomes deadly to America until someone stops them. Their inability to predict the effect of their policies and practices is due to their total lack of knowledge about China's history with the West.
The humiliation suffered for 100 years after the Opium War and their loss to Britain is embedded in every citizen. Never forget applies here too.
No nation will ever push around China again; no nation will ever conquer China militarily as Japan did; no nation will prevent China from attaining its goal - a re-emergence as the one Middle Kingdom of the world.
Trump has no idea what he is unleashing with his recklessness.
29
@Yuri Asian Doesn't China have a president for life in President Xi Jinping?
2
I'm trying to square the concept of free trade with the reality that capitalism seeks the lowest labor costs and the fewest regulations -- and that includes regulations that protect the health of workers and the environment. So why not penalize countries and firms that exploit workers and destroy the environment with some kind of tariff that explicitly recognizes such exploitation?
19
Keep in mind that manufacturers don’t pay those tariffs, their end customers do.
You having to pay $25 more for that microwave at Walmart isn’t likely to have near-term beneficial effects on exploited workers in other countries, but it will have an immediate effect on you and millions of other Americans.
12
@Bob Bunsen But, the price increase would make American manufacturing viable and create more local jobs -- would it not?
Targeting "immediate effect" is a problem everywhere. I guess when economists talk about maximizing resources, they don't think about labour protectionism. Right now, a lower level worker (not everyone is gifted enough to be in the top level, nor is there enough room for everyone) in a developed economy has nowhere to work, and the developing countries don't want them either.
Trade protectionism does have its merits when some parties are not playing fair, until free movement of labour and labour protections (in terms of working environment) is agreed to as a part of trade deals.
3
@Thomas George - In economics terms, what this is is over-valuing "efficiency gains" from trade while dramatically undervaluing "distributional losses" from wealth accumulation and gutting the middle class over multi-decade time spans.
4
If it is U.S. or European IP that was stolen by the Chinese (allegedly,) made into products and sold worldwide there is a solution. Enforce Customs laws and stop it at the port of entry and threaten to destroy the products unless a royalty agreement is done. If there is no money to be made they will come to the table for an equitable decision.
The U.S. the Eurozone, Japan and South Korea should collaborate. This is where the bulk of goods made from illegal IP is flowing.
Other 3rd world nations buy these Chinese products? bring them into compliance with other threats of tariffs, they are more vulnerable. All this is public information, products coming into a country can be tracked.
We have to do the work to stop it to make China respect intellectual property of companies in other countries.
Consumed locally inside China? apply ruinous but targeted tariffs to ensure China knows why we are doing it.
3
@Gary Valan
"The U.S. the Eurozone, Japan and South Korea should collaborate. This is where the bulk of goods made from illegal IP is flowing.
We have to do the work to stop it to make China respect intellectual property of companies in other countries."
This is exactly what the TPP agreement was designed to do, but Trump casually tore it up and discarded it without reading it or even asking what it was solely because it was Obama's idea.
50
There are multiple problems with trade with China, ranging from technology transfers that could rise to the level of a national security threat, to tariffs that raise the prices of items sold in bargain stores, causing inconvenience if not pain among many in Trump's voter base. There is also the issue of an unhealthy reliance on Chinese purchase of US debt to sustain our budget deficits. These issues have arisen over the past 30 years. Barring a shooting war, which is not an option, it may take 30 years before any course corrections show tangible results. Trump has one set of advisers who think we can bully China into concessions that are as drastic as those Germany made when it signed the armistice that ended WWI and was subjected to the Draconian terms of the Versailles Treaty. A second set of advisers, who either come from interests that are basically satisfied with the status quo, and/or fear the economic consequences, domestic and global, of an all-out trade war, are trying to restrain Trump, and the hardliners to whom he gravitates, at least rhetorically. This is all too serious for Trump to back down once again and claim a meaningless concession from China (such as committing to $2 trillion in US goods and services, which we are in no position to provide) as victory. These issues must be dealt with piecemeal, starting with technology transfers and all that is related to them, which actually seems to be happening since the Obama administration, hopefully not too late.
2
Much of what Trump has targeted is the supply chain and industrial clusters which help the US and global economies by keeping costs down.
What Trump misses is an incredible opportunity to use a willing immigrant workforce waiting at the border to move the US into the global producer/supplier for the world's bread basket, keeping safety high and costs low even as the population increases by a billion each decade and the middle class will double, all putting heavy pressure on food basket countries to increase supply while holding costs steady.
Food requires labor--and every farmer and packer, even fishers, report crucial labor shortages, and higher wages have not reversed the trend away from farm work.
Rather than turning away workers, the administration could grant multi-year visas that would enable farmers to boost production and establish market leadership. Instead the Omaha paper says Nebraska farmers alone this year expect to lose over a billion dollars from last year! Not due to weather, or market conditions, or competition, or changing consumer habits--but because of tariffs, arbitrarily assigned (why 10 - 40%?), without apparent justification.
His oppositional-defiant views of trade hinders and sabotages his sought after results!
15
To reference a familiar analogy: We have a 12-year-old at the wheel of the family station wagon and it's headed for the ditch.
41
Not to belittle your analogy, but comparing 12 year olds to Trump Is an insult to 12 year olds.
3
@Innocent Bystander
You are far too kind. Think lizard at the wheel, headed towards the Grand Canyon.
3
"Even as he declared himself Tariff Man, Trump revealed that he doesn’t understand how tariffs work. No, they aren’t taxes on foreigners, they’re taxes on our own consumers."
While I shouldn't be by now, I'm still astounded at how little this man knows, particularly in his so-called area of expertise, international business and deal-making.
Of course, I don't know much myself (never took a course in economics) but I'm not claiming to. The science of economics is hard--some of its premises are almost counter-intuitive.
And I think that's what's operating with him--his basic operational assumption, the one he campaigned on, is that America is constantly being taken by the rest of the world. Where he gets that chip on his shoulder is anyone's guess, because he's never had it that hard in his private life.
But it's dangerous that he's setting the tone, and the substance (such as it is) for upending world trade, alienating partners, and vascillating with real adversaries because he thinks it's something that should be done, and by him alone.
And like the proverbial dog that chases the sports car, he doesn't know what to do with it, now that he's "caught" it.
Nor do the markets, which is becoming a real problem for our domestic economy.
44
@ChristineMcM
In connection with saying "he's never had it that hard in his private life" we should allow something for his six business bankruptcies. After all, if he hadn't shifted his debts to those businesses, he might have lost a lot of money. That's enough to scare any self-declared "billionaire".
11
@ChristineMcM - Tariff man is a genius at knowing how to tap into the psyche of his MAGA base. He is aware, just like Bernie Sanders, just how many blue collar workers from the rust belt have lost their good paying jobs in manufacturing to off shoring. So he channels their anger against one country instead of rationally explaining that automation, international trade deals and market changes, mean that those 20th century union jobs are not coming back. Even the manufucacturing jobs Trump has personally cultivated like Foxconn, require technically & STEM trained workers which many blue collar workers are unqualified to fill. This is why Foxconn is already seeking thousands of H-1B imported workers to fill. Instead of addressing retraining needs, Trump channels the anger at China which is rather simplistic. True China is guilty of manipulation, steals intellectual property and may be capable of spying with next generation teleconn electronic devices although he should address this with trading allies through TPP instead of a one on one deal. Tariff man is incapable of global diplomacy so he resorts to high publicity trade stunts on Twitter. Hopefully he doesn't make another personal Trump branded deal with China in exchange for Huawei CFO's release since ZTE was guilty of same charge of selling technology to Iran. But China offering $billion for Indonesian MNC Land was enough to lift sanctions against ZTE accused of spying with telecon technology.
9
@Thomas Zaslavsky I don't think Trump is genius; rather, "practiced." He learned a repetitive skill. Clinically, that "chip on his shoulder" Christine references, makes him oppositional-defiant (rather than the more common passive-aggressive). Add narcissism and his sociopathy and his pursuit of failure are his wins--his life is counter-intuitive and devoid of truth or honesty, excepting transitionally.
For Pete's sake, this is a man who bankrupted and burned 3 casinos--with the odds stacked in his favor! A man who shrugged at an American resident being killed and dismembered by a foreign government. Is this his sworn protection of our security? Or a path to economic growth?
There are many more like him. The fringe is now mainstream.
18
I think Krugman introduces confusion when he says tariffs are not paid by foreigners but by consumers.
If I understand the article he's linked to correctly, tariffs are indeed paid by foreigners, though it's U.S. consumers who ultimately bear the cost.
2
Tariffs are paid by the importer at the port of entry to the U.S. The importer is usually a U.S. company. Some percentage of the tariff is passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
Where Krugman is wrong is to claim that the harm falls entirely on U.S. consumers. If this were true then the Chinese would have no problem with U.S. tariffs on its products. But it's not true; some of the burden is borne by the foreign producer.
2
@tanstaafl
Krugman did not "claim that the harm falls entirely on U.S. consumers". He left it to us to infer it or not. Perhaps he could have said more about that aspect, but his statement is correct.
13
@Paul You're a perfect example of why some of Trump's supporters don't understand how tariffs don't hurt us. They do. Importers pay those tariffs when the product lands in the U.S, not the exporters when the goods leave China. When someone imports Chinese products into the US, how do you suppose they recoup that extra cost? For the most part, they pass it on, and they become a consumer tax.
9
Prof. Krugman,
Here's what I don't quite get. Any reasonable person would assume that if a private company hired an incompetent lying moron who understood nothing about the business as CEO, shareholders would react negatively, and stock value would plummet. Yet, as various conservative colleagues of yours have pointed out, in this paper, this kind of reaction to Trump's Presidency has not happened. I have no doubt it's clear to people whose business it is to study these things that the man doesn't know what he's doing, that he's not preparing America or Americans for the future, that he's going to leave us worse off economically - so what gives?
I am not savvy about economics, but I would have to assume that Wall Street is not reacting more negatively because American workers and American productivity are no longer that important to them - their money can be invested elsewhere. Businesses can be relocated, jobs can be outsourced - so it hardly matters to them whether or not most of America will look/feel like a third world country - just as long as they don't have to support it with taxes.
So, my question is, will America's shrinking GDP necessarily be reflected in the stock market if other economies pick up the slack?
15
@DebbieR
I'm afraid a realistic person would make no such assumption. The recent history of large U.S. companies has ample counterexamples.
5
@DebbieR In general, a President has only a weak effect on the national economy except during a crisis. If America faces another crisis requiring executive response, our poor choice of president will indeed result in steeper devaluation because of uncertainty about whether he will handle it appropriately.
5
@Ernie Cohen,
In the short term perhaps. But in the long term, aren't investments in things like education, infrastructure, research - important? How much of our primacy in computer technology was due to defense spending and Darpa funded research? - thanks to intelligent and farsighted politicians like Al Gore?
1
Yes, the world economy depends on Trump, but also the republicans in congress. If Trump is hurting us it would be up to the republicans to defend our country.....it's up to them.
8
Many pundits, politicians, and academics often say we have the best political system. The reverence for our system of governance is largely wrapped up in our great esteem for the founders who indeed possessed keen insight and knowledge about leaders, people who thirst for power, those who attain it and what they inevitably do with it. Due to our overall success our system of governance is rarely questioned or challenged.
I really like one aspect of the British Parlimentary system.
The prime minister, their equivalent of our president goes before parliment and participates in a question and answer session once a week for half an hour on Wednesdays at noon.
All of which is televised live. The MPs pepper the prime minister with questions and foten cheer or jeer him/her when depending on the answer.
Imagine if President Trump had to respond to questions from our Congress members each week about his policies, proposals and strategies on a broad range of topics.
For anyone that hasn't seen an English Prime Minister being bombarded with questions and expected to answer intellignetly I suggest going on YouTube and taking a look.
49
@A P Yeah, but we don't have a parliamentary system. And won't. Besides Donald would just bring his designated Liar, Huckabee Sanders to lie for him.
1
I was looking at the photo with its caption "Trump at a Dinner Meeting with Xi...." And thought back to the North Korea Summit with the so-called "Working Lunch".
Can it really be that diplomacy at this level is really facilitated by food, the act of eating together? Is Kim supposed to think: "Look, Donald eats an egg roll just like I do, he must be human, maybe I don't really want nukes or to nuke him." It just seems silly. The idea of a "working lunch" seems to be "hey, we gotta work, but we also gotta eat, and we have limited time. Let's work while we eat"- but everybody understanding that's just a pretext for trying to achieve the first effect: "when you share appetizers with somebody, or they smile when they pass you the breadsticks, they seem less like an enemy, more human."
It seems childish to appeal to psychology on this level. I think it makes sense to break the chill with shared meals (perfect sense) but to make meals the setting for real work just doesn't seem serious. But then, all I remember from the summit were photo ops with lots of flags and Trump trying to put his hand on Kim's arm in a kind of kindly avuncular way that business school manuals would say is a good way to gently assert dominance, with Kim also trying to manage the power dynamics favorably to himself.
Seems to me that in matters of such gravity, you eat (together or not), put the food aside and get down to business. But twice in a row food has been completely at the center of the event.
3
I *partially* retract this. Eating with somebody is a good way to become friendlier, and therefore (to an extent) to overcome differences. But still, I think it's naive to think major breakthroughs will occur this way. On the other hand, you never know, maybe the relaxed informality and levity a meal promotes can help.
One legitimate concern though is that in business it's apparently (I wouldn't really know) common for big negotiations to happen over a restaurant meal; Trump may be deluded about diplomatic breakthroughs happening the same way). Memorably in the movie "Social Network", a junior lawyer or paralegal tells the Mark Zuckberberg character his lawyers and the Vinkelvoss ones are out for steak together deciding on the settlement; and of course Dustin Hoffman memorably gets fired in Kramer vs Kramer at a restaurant. I guess a "business lunch" is a real thing. But I don't think of major international diplomacy working that way. "Let's just sort out this whole nuclear thing over a couple steaks." If he were that deluded, he'd be quite susceptible to manipulation and deception, being hoodwinked that he'd befriended his counterpart, reached an understanding, rapport etc, while the other guy is just scheming for the upper hand.
Follow the money and watch the shorts on stocks and other hedge investing...either by trumps cronies, or by foreign investors, or both. Someone is getting rich from this I’m certain...
28
You didn't really have to add "On trade...", because he is just plain without a clue about everything.
32
I am not an economist but I thought even the man or woman on the street understands that tariffs are paid for by the consumer and not the exporting vendor. Forget about the technical details of international trade, I just wonder why is it so difficult for the guy who sleeps in the WH to see that?
Tariff may reduce trade because Americans will most likely buy less of imports but is that is going to make American great again why not just build a wall around the US borders and coasts and make the rest of the world pay for it?
Yes, Build That Wall!
4
@Notmypesident. No, the man or women in the street does not understand. If they did this fool would never have made it through the Republican primaries much less win the election.
1
"The Chinese essentially rip off technology. So there is a case for toughening our stance on trade."
That's a start. Krugman finally recognizes this is a problem.
"The last person you want to play hardball here is ..."
Hate Trump all you want, but he is the only US leader who decided to play hardball regarding the problem of IP theft by the Chinese. He's not the last one, he's the only one.
Chew on that for a while.
2
@Jp Chew on it...
No need. I'm affected directly by the IP issues with China, and I can tell you directly that the results are not going to be anything like you imagine. Here is what is happening... not what I think it going to happen mind you, what is actually happening.
China is simply ramping up investment internally for IP which is necessary for their own national security. Investment might be buying it from foreigners, espionage or R&D. This is because they consider the US capricious, which Trump is, there is no way to know what he is going to do.
At the same time, they just tariff the US in retaliation, and watch while the US consumer pays higher prices. Xi is not at all concerned or hurt by this, he faces no electors.
So what is it we're supposed to chew on? This is obvious from what I see from our Chinese business partners, on the ground, in China. What does your experience add to this?
12
@Jp
You are wrong. The TPP addressed those issues with most of the other Asian countries who wanted to be partners with the U.S. rather than be under the heel of China; iq45 withdrew us from that too.
18
@Jp....."Hate Trump all you want, but he is the only US leader who decided to play hardball regarding the problem of IP theft by the Chinese.".....The problem is that Trump doesn't know how to play hard ball.
4
The multiple bankruptcy maven is most certainly not the man we need to negotiate anything on behalf of working Americans. Trump has already convincingly demonstrated that his dealmaker reputation is 100% fake.
20
Well said, especially the part about China's very bad record with respect to intellectual property. It perhaps is the only thing Trump says about our trade relationship with China that is correct. But he really has no clue about how to address this issue, and certainly no plan.
I wonder how all those people he cheated and stiffed in his real estate deals feel watching this exercise in the 'artlessness of the deal'? I bet they'd like another go at him. Back then, they probably thought they were dealing with someone who understood business instead of someone for whom shameless flattery and vague promises were all that was necessary.
11
The true arrogance of Americans is that no matter how badly we act , how incompetent our leadership, America will always reign supreme. Of the seventeen Republicans and the few Democrats, Americans chose the worst, most entertaining, least able candidate to run the country. For almost two years, we have dodged bullets, but it looks like our luck is about to run out in foreign affairs, the economy, the environment and what remained of our democracy.
44
@DO5
I find nothing about Trump entertaining, but then that may just be me. I find it so hard to be entertained when I am doubled over with nausea.
4
All true. Now convince the Iowa farmers, the vast swaths of rural counties, the wheat growers in the Pacific Northwest and down in Texas. Until they see that they are being fleeced and conned by this sorry excuse for a president things will not change. Trump is a one man wrecking crew. He knows that and he rather loves it. His family is all in on the big con, too.
19
The Iowa farmers turned the Iowa congressional map blue. Perhaps there is some hope?
Trump is quite good in identifying an issue that is genuinely concerning, or more likely less than ideal and often times a non-issue all together. He then creates a crisis by stoking outrage, which is shortly followed by some kind of pronouncement (usually a tweet), a minor policy tweak or worse yet ignition of a firestorm. When the dust settles he announces that he, great leader, has solved the problem, America is safe again, and he's earned yet another feather in his gargantuan hat. Witness the solution of the North Korean problem, the new North American Trade Agreement, the vital strengthening of our degraded military, the ban against transgender persons in the military, the fabulous tax cuts, the great respect returned to our nation previously squandered by the incompetent Obama, and soon the super duper deal made with the wily and dishonest Chinese. How is it not clear by now to just about anybody paying attention that the man is some combination of dishonest, calculating, ignorant and grossly insecure. How much damage will he do before he leaves office.
26
So, Paul, you're asking us to believe that the man who would be president, who his father saved from bankruptcy on multiple occasions, who tried to rob his own dad's estate, may not know what he's doing?
You're asking us to believe that a guy, who according to "Forbes" ( “How Trump is trying — and failing — to get rich off his presidency") would be considerably wealthier if he'd liquidated and invested in Index Funds, may not know what he's doing?
You're asking us to believe that a guy who has told over 6,420 lies (Washington Post), and said we shouldn't believe his former attorney, Michael Cohen, because he's a liar, may not know what he's doing?
You're asking us to believe that Donald Trump, who fenced off neighbors to his golf resort in Scotland, and tried to bill them for cost, as he promised to wall out Mexico and force them to pay for the wall, may not know what he's doing?
You're asking us to believe that our President, who is cited in Michael Cohen's guilty plea filing as "Individual #1," may not know what he's doing?
You're asking us to believe that this president, who has built castles in the sky, furnished them, and sold them to his supporters like property in Trump SoHo (Vanity Fair, August 2017), may not know what he's doing?
I don't know Paul, that's asking a lot ...
76
"No, they aren’t taxes on foreigners, they’re taxes on our own consumers."
Well hello. Duh. Trump cut taxes on the wealthiest people in the country, the world, including himself, and has raised back door taxes on the very unemployed and low wage people who supposedly elected him. He and his Republican enablers have cleverly shifted even more of the tax burden from the rich onto the poor. But they don't seem to realize it yet.
Why the Democrats aren't trumpeting this (sorry) every day is just beyond me.
54
@Edward - so dismally true ...and not new. They've relied on satirists to carry their water for decades. (Clinton - Bill, not Hillary - was the exception, which got him impeached). In the meantime Dems have forgotten how to *make* the MSM pay attention, something the GOP successfully relies on given its lack of ability to govern other than as lackeys for the predatory plutocrats & preachers. They're (Dems) also pretty lame when dealing with predators, both inside and outside the party.
At the close of the Asian summit President Duterte gave a speech in which he denigrated and excoriated Canada and our Prime Minister and praised the American President to the rafters.
In the Philippines the Trump brand has tremendous value in Canada the Trump brand no longer exists it is a negative in terms of value. It is the Ford Pinto of Real Estate.
As long as Trump is President we will not sleep easy.
11
I wonder if there is a relationship with the one person who can cause fluctuations with the market and people who make money hedging?
8
We had only two choices: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Trump has been complaining about unfair trade for over thirty years and he’s at least trying to make the Chinese understand that the US will no longer be taken advantage of. I highly doubt Clinton would even have addressed this problem.
Oh, and N. Korea: Kim would certainly still be lobbing missiles had Clinton been president.
Yes, Trump is highly unorthodox but he’s gotten a lot done in only 22 months.
3
@Tuco
You have a remarkable ability to predict a future that didn't happen.
Kim lobbed enough missiles and tested enough atomic bombs to accomplish his objective, which was (I infer) to bring the U.S. President to the negotiating table. Kim has gotten part of what he wanted. Another meeting with Trump and he may get the end of our trade blockade. What does your remarkable ability say about that?
11
@Tuco.....Yes, Trump is highly unorthodox but he’s gotten a lot done in only 22 months.....We will wait while you try to name one thing Trump has gotten done in 22 months. Noise is not accomplishment. And no, starting a name calling spat with North Korea, and then having a photo op is not an accomplishment. Putting tariffs on Chinese goods and then calling a truce so you can have another photo op is not an accomplishment. Trashing NAFTA, insulting Mexico and Canada, then changing the name and declaring victory is not an accomplishment.
27
Besides a massive tax cut for the Top 400 richest families in America, big cut in the corporate tax rate, a big increase in the monthly trade deficit and a massive increase in the $debt, what has he accomplished?
18
Trump seems to think that he can go with his gut instead of reasoning through problems. That kind of decision making only works for people who are so familiar with all the factors involved and how things tend to play out that they don’t need to learn anything new to make good decisions. Whenever people are confronted with something new, this will lead to unexpected results. With new issues one must work through the problems without preconceptions. Trump cannot do that, or is too complacent to try.
1
@Casual Observer
You're reminding me of George W. Bush. His gut destroyed much of the Middle East and (more or less) a million lives.
8
Question: How popular is free trade among rust belt industrial workers? Particularly because they were key to Mr. Trump amassing enough electoral votes to win the presidency, and their votes appear to be necessary for a Democratic presidential candidate to win.
5
J.P. Morgan soon reported in a note to its clients, his claims “seem if not completely fabricated then grossly exaggerated.”
If you are starting to quote the pronouncements of the banks who led us to the brink of Armageddon a decade ago, you are about as lost as Trump, Dr. Krugman.
5
@James Ricciardi
Even JP Morgan can make correct statements. What brought us to 'Armaggedon" was the failure of the Bush Administration to regulate the banks and other financial institutions. Of course, nothing would please the Republicans more than compromising the independence of the Federal Reserve, abolishing the FDIC, repealing Dodd-Frank and all regulation of Wall Street.
9
@James Ricciardi
Even I, no capitalist, think the opinions of business on a matter of business may be of value.
7
The nicest thing you can say about Trump is, he doesn't say "Have a nice day."
3
Sir, it’s been obvious that this entire charade of a “presidency “ has been a huuuuge scam. Since that magical ride down the faux gold escalator, the overriding goal has been MONEY. For the Trump Brands, gouging the Taxpayers for his trips, Security, stays at his own Properties, etc.. And fees, commissions and incentives galore, both under and over the table, from unsavory characters worldwide. All untaxed and laundered. The Perfect Scam. Thanks, GOP. You own him, and you’ve really overpaid. But, you ain’t seen nothing yet. 2020, I can hardly wait.
Seriously.
183
@Phyliss Dalmatian
You're so right, Phyliss. The passing of George HW and the words spoken about him couldn't be more of a contrast to the feelings held by many Americans about our current president.
Politics aside, you can't help but think that after spending a few hours alone in a life raft after having your plane shot down in WWII, you might wake up every morning and think, "How can I earn this?"
Today, I can't help but think our current president wakes up every morning and thinks, "How can I scam this?"
11
@Phyliss Dalmatian Right on. The Republican President rumbles along. His Republican Congress bows and scrapes while his romance with the media blossoms. Will that romance produce the second Republican love child that McConnell is hoping for?
Mark the date November 3, 2020.
3
The future of the Country and the whole World hinges on Donald Trump mental processes . In other words a madman is in charge . To restrain him you will need a straightjacket . Advisors that try to reason with him are losing their time . That was the case with Gary Cohn . He got a tax reduction but was unable to persuade him to abandon his crazy ideas about tariffs . Now we are in a trade war with China . We have also the crazy ideas about global warming . I wonder what is next . Maybe that the Earth is flat . Why not claim that the Earth is flat if in the first day of his presidency he claimed that the crowds in his inauguration were bigger than in Obama `s . I do not understand the passivity of the supposedly adults in the room. The man is not well and you do not need to be a mental health profesional to notice that . It is not a matter of ideology but of mental health . The really scary part is not the damage that his crazy ideas have done already , but the damage that they may still do .
115
@Bernardo Izaguirre MD
The answer is quite clear. Many of the supposed adults in the room are watching this petty tyrant wannabe hand them gift after gift that they've been hankering for for decades.
30
@Bernardo Izaguirre MD
You do not need a straightjacket, you need an impeachment to restrain him.
3
685 days of Trump: Trade wars without a plan, allies looking for new alliances, democracy under attack, earth heating up and the economy cooling off.
Not much of a surprise really. Maybe even near best case. And the utter predictability of what has happened and will continue to happen shows that the problem is much deeper than an incompetent President.
Trump's power is amplified by the cult of ignorance and anti-intellectualism of much of the ~42% of Americans who still support this embarrassment of a President and the corruption and cowardice of elected Republican officials who don't even try to constrain him.
Sometimes countries get the leadership it deserves.
Turns out putting an "ignorant, volatile and delusional" person in the White House even if you approve of his racism, xenophobia, and mysogny and are willing to overlook his corruption, dishonesty, and authoritarianism is bad idea.
Who knew?
Everyone who took the responsibility of informed citzenship seriously.
203
@LT
I, for one, or for the vast majority of Americans, do not deserve trump.
2
10 nations with the highest tariff levels on earth in ascending order.
10) Barbados
9) Gambia
8) Chad
7) Cameroon
6) Zimbabwe
5) Pakistan
4) Nepal
3) Sri Lanka
2) Bhutan
1) Iran
10
@Jay
From 1816 until after World War II the USA would be at the top of that list. We became wealthy as the most tariff protected nation in the world. Free trade created enough losers to elect Donald Trump on a promise to fix our trade agreements.
5
@James H. Murphy
We were very protectionist. We also took intellectual property (in the form of hiring foreign expertise) from anywhere we could, especially Britain.
8
@Thomas Zaslavsky
Indeed. But we paid for intellectual property.
This is a duh: He's got the tariff power and he will use it, because it is all he's got. Not an empty suit, an empty closet.
29
At least Don Quixote only waged battles against windmills.
15
"Intellectual property" violations in the global economy, I think, are much more a legal issue, based on past contracts, which of course can serve as a legal base for any sanction. I doubt, this would have necessarily an economic rationale. There are many reasons for, i) Any country sanctioned on intellectual property, would possibly substitute such situation by other domestic policies very easily. ii) Could introduce reciprocal instruments if the conflict affects other areas (of trade). iii) Through intellectual property violated countries have probably not the same current account position which is very vital in trade contracts. If one thinks of Japan, Germany, Netherlands as technologically advanced countries, they all have huge trade surpluses and possibly have some other bargaining positions than the US. In France and the UK, trade (im)balance doesn't seem to be a that much dramatic issue. I do not claim that legal claims on intellectual property would be unjustified. What I'm trying explain is something very simple : Efforts to link this issue with foreign trade may not find as many supporters as expected and may not reduce the foreign trade deficit.
2
There is NOTHING comforting about Trump or any aspect of Trumpism, trade is just one facet of the downward spiral. When are Congressional Republicans going to honor their oath of office or was the massive tax to the 1% donor class their only interest?
28
"We have always been in a trade war with Eastasia."
Brilliant paraphrase, Mr. Krugman. I mean it. Well done.
18
It is also worth pointing out China's role in global warming. As of 2015, 29.5% of fossil fuel CO2 emissions came from China, as opposed to 14.3% from the US. Economic growth fueled by trade deals has played an enormous role in worsening climate change.
Economists like Krugman are directly to blame for this.
2
@Schrodinger China is now the biggest current emitter but of the total global inventory of fossil fuel CO2, we are still by far the biggest cumulative emitter. So our share of responsibility for the climate impacts is still easily the largest of any nation. It would take China a while to catch up.
7
@Schrodinger "China's role in global warming" - sure. But China is actually doing something about it, unlike the United States.
8
@Schrodinger China produces twice as much CO2 emissions as the USA.
China has five times the population as the USA.
Your point was, what exactly?
9
I have commented previously that I think the deconstruction of whole sectors of the economy is making a whole lot of money for people at the top and behind the scenes.
Even now, the administration is trying to pick winners and losers (such as trying to subsidize billions to farmers even more than it already is) Crushing new republican steel taxes (tariffs) are having a massive effect on the auto industry as the top three makers (along with the auto parts) pull back, because it is becoming too costly.
A deal for the sake of a deal is no deal at all, but it is in the art of bamboozling everyone that you think you have a deal, that is the most troublesome. (and destructive)
93
@FunkyIrishman-The so-called "farmers" who receive the lion-share of federal subsidies are corporate farms growing mono-crops: wheat, soy, corn. Some of the owners receiving handouts are on Forbes billionaire list.
2
Trump is intoxicated with power, a drunk, fighting mad at the end of his rope and swinging at anything, whether he can hit it or not.
We should expect a constant barrage of his frantic and abusive behavior until the end. But if he is still in the running in 2020, and if he manages to pull off another win, then the onus shifts from him to us. It becomes clear that the fault is in ourselves. We are loathe to consider this possibility, but it will confront us. And what then?
64
"And what then?" I am loath to loathe the possibilities.
5
I have commented previously that I think the deconstruction of whole sectors of the economy is making a whole lot of money for people at the top and behind the scenes.
Even now, the administration is trying to pick winners and losers (such as trying to subsidize billions to farmers even more than it already is) Crushing new republican steel taxes (tariffs) are having a massive effect on the auto industry as the top three makers (along with the auto parts) pull back, because it is becoming too costly.
A deal for the sake of a deal is no deal at all, but it is in the art of fooling everyone that you think you have a deal, that is the most troublesome. (and destructive)
7
Once you sell the license you lose control. I have an idea. Business should use the technology to build their own factories and hire their own workers. Oops, might have to operate in the us where they couldn’t pay slave wages. So there’s the rub, be a license machine and give up control or build it yourself and keep control.
9
@Paul
Exactly. By their avarice, they virtually gave away the proverbial store. In the meantime, they virtually forced "non-compete" contracts down the throats of their American employees.
3
No Paul, it isn't, or at least it shouldn't be up to one man. Under the Constitution (Article I, Sec. 8, Clause 1) Congress, especially the House, controls and sets tariffs (aka "duties'). There is no national security issue that should allow President Trump to have usurped that role except for the connivance of the Republican-controlled Congress. It's time for the incoming Democratic House to reclaim that authority and end the ruinous and silly Trump (aka "Tariff Man") trade war with China with respect to non-defense products like autos and agricultural items. If we have problems with China, and we do, they should be referred to the World Trade Organization for resolution. Tariffs are a blunt instrument that is on the verge of pushing the U.S., China, and the rest of the world into recession. It's time for congress to assume it's Constitutional role as a "check and balance" on an irresponsible and frankly incompetent Executive in Tariff Man Trump.
18
@Paul Wortman Totally agree...and what better platform to run on for the newly elected Democratic House majority where they can actually do something positive AND rebuff emperor Orange.
7
@Paul Wortman: " If we have problems with China, and we do, they should be referred to the World Trade Organization for resolution. "
The WTO will not address the problem of IP theft by the Chinese.
1
@Paul Wortman
Allow me to associate with your comment. The history of tariffs from WWI, Great Depression, through WWII and Dumbarton Oaks/Bretton Woods, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) that evolved to the WTO was a rational effort for resolving trade issues. China intellectual property violations and currency value manipulations have not received the required attention. It is bad policy to by-pass the W.T.O. and fail to swiftly enforce trade rules with fines and penalties.
There are areas in currency manipulation that are difficult and mind-boggling for sure. Clearly, our trade diplomats and trade experts have a full agenda but there is no advantage to Tariffs. Dr. K is correct, Tariffs shifts the burden unnecessarily to the consumer.
Subsidies are also a difficult issue because we do it and our trading partners also do it. The Baltimore to DC SC Maglev that the government of Japan developed and tested based on the invention of Drs. James Powell and Gordon Danby, two American scientists, and the U.S. failed to develop was a policy travesty and it appears that Japan by using its own version of an overseas investment bank has the financial power to horn in on the U.S. high speed guided surface transport market, while the great idea of the late Senator Moynihan www.magneticglide.com to use the rights-of-way of the Interstates to build a 300 mph freight and passenger service using Powell and Danby's 2nd generation invention is not being competed is a mistake.
5
Analysis of a lunatic by a wise and intelligent man is scary for lots of terrible reasons. But none of this is news to the Republican leadership, for whom Trump is nothing more than a plate of noodles which they can throw against the wall.
They wouldn't even argue with most of this. The only point in dispute would be that we're accusing him of destroying the country, while they are encouraging him to do so. When this demolition derby is over, the only recourse will be total control to save our sinking ship. That will mean Marshall law, and worse. That's why the control of the House was such a critical victory, but it by no means assures our safety.
In other words, our fears are their goals.
15
@Sera
Martial law. Gen. Marshall was responsible for the Marshall plan, which was successful. (Sorry to pick on this, but I was impelled to humor.)
10
@Thomas Zaslavsky
Oops! Correct, Thomas! (I just wanted to see if you were paying attention...)
8
The general press and digital media need to take off their gloves and begin publishing more stories with headlines like
"Stock market slides because of Trump doubletalk."
"Trump lies threaten loss of 3 million American jobs."
We need to loudly call a spade a spade, a liar a liar. Repetition backed by facts will soon get everyone's very close attention.
599
@LarryAt27N You evidently haven't been reading the N.Y. Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, or watching ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, or MSNBC for the last two years. An overwhelming percentage of their coverage of Trump has been negative. In fact I don't recall seeing a single positive Trump story in any those sources.
This is in spite of the facts that the economy is booming, unemployment is at record lows, ISIS has been largely defeated, and progress in curtailing the North Korean threat to the world has been made.
3
@lgh
Working backwards, what was that about the North Korean threat and their ICBMs? And the Obama economy, saved by Democrats from the second Bush catastrophe? (That's the second catastrophe of the second Bush.)
80
@lgh
An overwhelming percentage of their coverage of Trump has been negative because this president has done only one thing positive since he took office and that was to complain when the Republican House wanted to jettison its ethics oversight committee.
No progress has been made in curtailing the North Korean threat to the world unless your definition of progress is continuing to build nuclear weapons and rocket delivery systems and bolstering the status of the murdering lawless dictator in charge there.
56
I woke up today wondering if Trump really is the worst president in U.S. history, and then realized that at age 60, I lived through about a quarter of this nation's history. Yep, for at least this quarter, he is.
205
@Rod Stevens you can add the ones previous to us so for more than 87 yrs he’s so far in the lead to the bottom that I’m not sure anyone could catch him
38
@Rod Stevens
Reagan was just as bad, he just used more sugar.
13
@Rod Stevens Allow me to remind you of the wars Dubya started which continue to this day. Sorry but unless 45 starts unprovoked wars that destabilize entire parts of the world I'm still voting for Dubya as by far the worst, and I don't care how folksy or polite he is.
20
"Tariff Man is ignorant, volatile and delusional." And malignantly narcissistic. Does any sane person now question what the term 'malignant' means? And just how critical it is to have a stable, thoughtful, knowledgeable, and most of all, reasonable person in the all-powerful executive branch?
33
Thank you Mr. Krugman for this fine analysis of the current phantasmic trade debacle that Tariff Man is playing out on the global stage with himself in the starring role. He loves being the showman above all else, even if in an illusory drama, with him being the superhero who gallantly rescues the ravaged & victimized USA from the Chinese bully for his adoring MAGA supporters. The trouble is, as Mr. Krugman eloquently exposed, none of the traditional structures of economics support this reckless type of trade war which he has chosen to fight w/o any allies. Neither business, Wall Street, farmers, labor, day traders, 401k money managers, large manufacturers or free trade loving Republicans support imposing tariffs as "the way" to solve the US' trade grievances. In fact, in addition to GM laying off employees, Tesla just announced that they would be opening a plant in China due to the effects of trade on their bottom line. Trump is misusing the enormous executive power to impose tariffs because he enjoys the power of acting like an authoritarian dictator despot that he imagines himself to be. He has chosen amateurs posing as experts on trade including his son-in-law's pick of Peter Navarro plucked singly because of his books titled “Death by China” & “The Coming China Wars.” His other expert, Larry Kudlow, was chosen because Trump liked how he appeared on Fox TV. Joining TPP in the long run would solve more issues w/ China than Tariff Man's simplistic & short term approach.
16
@Dunca: " victimized USA from the Chinese bully "
IP theft is a problem in dealing with China. You can't set up straw men and make it disappear.
"In fact, in addition to GM laying off employees, "
The Chevy Volt was Rattner's baby. It's officially a failure.
"Tesla just announced that they would be opening a plant in China due to the effects of trade on their bottom line."
That's part of the globalism that Krugman and the Democratic Party embrace.
1
@Jp - The GOP is traditionally recognized as the free trade party. George H. W. Bush formalized NAFTA which Trump just re-branded although added some TPP developed stipulations. It is still a free trade agreement among North American countries as much as Trump tries to distort the truth to please his unsuspecting supporters. Global trade is here for good, otherwise the USA wouldn't engage in billion dollar defense industry trades with countries like Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Turkey, UAE, India, Singapore, Egypt, Iraq, etc. GM wants to sell electric cars to clean energy consumers in the burgeoning middle class car market in China as well as Tesla. American consumers aren't buying new cars as the market is too small. Yes China steals intellectual property although TPP addressed this issue along with the support of 19 additional trading allies. While the US is busy opening up new coal production, China is developing new clean technology to export in the future. They have heavily invested in quantum computing which will ensure that China will be the number one leader of technology in the future & leave the US vulnerable to security hacks as well as struggling to catch up with evolving technology. China has invested in the One Belt One Road infrastructure plan, a network of roads, ports, tracks & pipelines that will tie together the economies of more than 60 countries across Asia, Africa & Europe. This lays the groundwork for massive trade across the globe.
5
@Dunca: The TPP would do nothing with respect to the forced partnering with local Chinese companies. IP would still be at risk.
Like I said, a Democrat shouldn't complain about layoffs of manufacturing-based employees in the US since they (Democratic Party) are the party of globalism and free trade.
"So the future of world trade, with all it implies for the world economy, now hinges largely on Donald Trump’s mental processes."
What mental processes? He can't remember what he discussed with Xi in his recent summit, nor could he ever remember what he discussed with Putin in his secret Helsinki meeting. Xi and Putin think they knew, but Trump remains clueless.
Trump's idea of a good meeting is if the people he meets with are patronizing to a sufficient extent to pamper his pathological narcissism. Given that people seem to worship him enough in meetings, he simply makes up agreements and then whimsically does a 180o pivot.
We are indeed in deep doo doo until we get rid of this guy. And then we have to clean up his messes.
36
A deal for the sake of a deal is not a deal at all, but rather someone trying to use some art of fooling people there is one, which is so destructive to them in the end.
These are the state of affairs with this administration.
14
I would like to express deepest thanks to President Tariff Man for calling upon me - a non-farmer - to join in making a personal sacrifice on behalf of his Great China Trade War. Not since Viet Nam have I had such an opportunity to serve! But today, given the downward gyrations of my portfolio, I feel I've finally earned the right to join my patriotic agricultural comrades on the front lines by proudly proclaiming, " I'm with you ... We're all soybean farmers now!" (Uh, In that regard, please advise where I apply for my portfolio relief allowance?)
21
When I see a turbulent stock market and it can be directly tied to the Tariff Man, I smile. The more this loose cannon stirs things up, and the more those 401K's gyrate, the greater the chances more folks on the right start thinking about moving to the left.
Hurry up 2020
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@cherrylog754 If you had invested your 401K in the Standard & Poors 500 stock index on November 09, 2016 your total return as of today would be in excess of 25%.
1
@lgh
Obama's saving the economy was a very powerful action. It lives on past his own term as president.
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@lgh
The S&P made all of that 25% gain in 2017. Some of the rise was the lingering effect of Obama's economic policies. Also, there was the anticipation of the Tax Cuts For The Rich abomination, which passed in December of 2017. The S&P has been flat for 2018. (It was a little higher before Stable Genius/Tariff Man displayed his ignorance once again).
During Obama's years in office, the S&P went up 137%, by the way.
And don't look now, but the Republicans are eyeing your Social Security and Medicare benefits to do their Reverse Robin Hood act.
And your next mortgage is going to cost you a lot more, too.
3
Jeb Bush had it spot on when he said Trump was a chaos candidate and would be a chaos president.
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He never should have been elected. He doesn't even belong on a background-checked visitor list to the White House, let alone the President. The Electoral College system allowed him to win, and the Electoral System then failed to do its job in keeping an unqualified, dangerous person from becoming President. So everything that happens, has happened, or will happen, is because of that extremely poor election outcome. We are on the Titanic. But this time around, we have a chance. We know the iceberg is there, and we have just enough time to change course. We got the first part right with the House. Now we have to get rid of McConnell and his bunch of partisan bums in the Senate. It is vital that we do so.
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"On trade, he's a rebel without a clue." And might we say with apologies to James Dean that Trump on trade is a reason without a because?
8
Well maybe the silver lining here is that a global economic crash will curtail consumption and galloping carbon dioxide emissions. Perhaps Trump is a manifestation of Gaian homeostatic forces.
6
Not so fast, Dr. Krugman. I seem to recall that by the 80's the world had had enough of Japan's mercantile mischief. The West forced Japan to open up with Camry factories in the USA. Remember labor’s “You sell it here? You build it here”. I do.
Please explain under what conditions China’s turn should come. Sure, it won’t be from our school yard bully in the White House. But what about after 2020?
3
@Jim: No one else has forced the trade issues to center stage. After 2020 we'll be reading about the importance of Chinese saving face so the issues will melt away.
1
Virtually all of Trump's deals have been swindles of one sort or another.
"I'm the best business man in the world because I know how to negotiate"
1. Bought the Trump Plaza Hotel for $400 million.
Repossessed by the bank
2. Bought his yacht for $29 million.
Repossessed by the bank.
3. Built 4 casinos at a cost of $3 billion.
Filed for bankruptcy and went out of business.
Stiffed Contractors and employees.d
Bankrupted employees retirement savings plan.
4. Started Trump Airlines, never made a profit.
Planes and helicopter repossessed by Citibank
5. Trump mortgage, Trump Vodka, and Trump Steaks.
All went out of business.
6. Opened Trump University issued worthless degrees, got
students to take on unpayable debt, su9ed under RICO.
7, RICO suit charging Trump organization with Racketeering.
Google Trump RICO lawsuits, more than can be posted here.
A swindler, documented liar, narcissist, totally incompetent racketeering criminal, is negotiating our trade agreements. What could go wrong?
Oh his and the GOP tax cuts paying for itself, when and how?
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@David Underwood
And yet, somehow, our political system elected him. Forget the photo ids. I want every citizen to have to pass a serious, non-partisan voting test every ten years in order to cast a vote at any level.
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@rickw22-What elected Trump was Republican chicanery helped by foreign interference.
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@David Underwood
Let’s not absolve the fourth estate from strafing the surface of Trump’s business chicanery rather than digging deeply and exposing it fully. The seven points you list were all available to the MSM to report upon. But the focus was on Clinton’s emails just as today it’s on Warren’s DNA.
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There is good reason to doubt the claims of all economists, including Krugman, on the benefits of free trade. Thirty years ago economists claimed that freer trade was going to make everybody wealthier. However, the alleged benefits of free trade have not shown up in American middle class incomes. Numerous American towns have been devastated as industries have closed and moved overseas.
Due to strong support from the media, banks and big business, past Presidents ignored the harmful effects of US trade deals. The same people who are upset with Trump were happy to ignore the damage done by US trade deals as long as Washington and New York City prospered.
Krugman claims that tariffs are "taxes on our own consumers" are not backed up by the source he links to. If you follow the link you find this:
"The costs of this tax are borne by U.S. consumers and businesses, often in the form of higher prices. Foreign companies may end up selling fewer goods and services if the United States imposes high tariffs. So they pay a price, too."
Do you really think the media would be upset about a trade war if all the costs fell on consumers? Of course not. The push for free trade is coming from Wall Street and big business.
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@Schrodinger - "Tariffs are a border-tax on the buyer, not the seller; they make it more expensive for the buyer to import a good into the country." As your own quote states, "The costs of this tax are borne by US consumers..." Given that in '17 the US imported $375 billion more from China than we exported, as the cliche goes, you do the math on your Tarriff Man's genius strategy.
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@Jerry Farnsworth
The article that Krugman links to claims that the costs of tariffs can be borne by either businesses or consumers or by foreign sellers. That contradicts Krugman's own claim.
Free trade is an issue of religious dogma for economists. The AP "fact check" is based on what economists think, but I think there are good reasons to doubt the wisdom of economists on trade. The claims they made for the benefits of trade have not been shown up in median incomes.
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/12/04/us/politics/ap-us-trump-tariffs-fact-check.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Faponline-news&module=inline
2
@Schrodinger But it has shown up in overall incomes - in other words, the rich have gotten richer. If we had a better taxation scheme, then we could redistribute some of these gains to people whose jobs were lost as a result of global free trade in the form of better security (and I don't mean the military).
I think an end result of capitalism (or end scale, for now) is global competition. If a worker in the US can't compete with a worker in China (at any task), they should do something else. And vice versa. Isn't this the conservative view, that people should pull themselves up by the bootstraps and compete with anyone and anything? I do think all people in the US (and the world) should have enough basic security that they don't worry about food, shelter, and their health. But otherwise, I think global competition is better than local competition.
So a UBI or something like that would work, as long as the culture changes along with it. I think with the increase in automation, the idea that people have to work in order to make money isn't valid anymore. It's not just trade, it's also automation and a host of other things, that make take this view: you have to be a lifelong learner and adapter if you want to have more than a basic standard of living. And the people who do make more can afford to pay more taxes to make sure everyone's security is ensured.
4
Trump's constant repetition of the term "Tariffs" and "Trade war" is a diversion away from the simple fact that Trump and the Republican cohorts are trying to offset the giant hole they put in the federal budget with their December 2017 Tax Cuts legislation to the tune of 1.5 Trillion dollars over ten years. Those Tariffs are thrust upon the people of America, not other nations, but China is a foreign foe that all Kings and leaders in History similarly focused their people's attention on to avoid being vanquished by their own people.
Sure China is a bad player in trade, but the Trump machine is just using them to distract and divert attention. Those Trump tariffs and his war is on us and we are forced to suffer financially and most people still think it's all about China.
The Tariffs are a tax on Americans to offset the major loss of revenue that resulted from the Tax Cuts that benefited mostly the wealthy individuals and corporations.
31
In my opinion his actions: deficit exploding tax cuts, and unnecessary trade wars are heading us toward a recession.
In addition he made a big mistake in backing out of TPP. Had we gone through with TPP our position in the Asia Pacific region would be much stronger and our ability to bring pressure on China regarding intellectual property would be strengthened.
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"In addition he made a big mistake in backing out of TPP. Had we gone through with TPP our position in the Asia Pacific region would be much stronger and our ability to bring pressure on China regarding intellectual property would be strengthened."
That's exactly what Obama said, and Trump will seek to destroy any policy/agreement/pact made by Obama, no matter how wise.
30
Here less than a 6 hr drive from NYC Paul Krugman is probably our most loved economist in both French and English. We have a shortage of workers after decades of higher unemployment than anywhere in the US and Canada. Our new government is figuring out how to distribute its excess revenue and seniors and families are getting less than they expected as our government invests in our future.
Paul Krugman may not be comfortable with your government's inability to do anything thing but exacerbate your problems but up here we are apoplectic, we are experiencing the best economy on the planet better than anywhere else in Canada even those provinces we once considered the "have" provinces. All our public and private sector leaders are begging for new citizens. Our economy is booming and our only problem is keeping up with the growth. We are optimistic and looking forward to the future.
Please don't complain! You have known adversity we have never before known the joy of the most successful liberal democracy on this planet and Donald J Trump leads on the front page of all newspapers and leads our newscasts every day. We have a right to really fear your government.
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@Montreal Moe
If only it was that easy to re-locate to Canada, we'd be there in a heartbeat. I worked in the US Consulate in Montreal in the '80s, fell in love with the Metro and Schwartz's pastrami. Tough to declare political asylum with a diplomatic passport.
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@Montreal Moe
As do we! (Really fear our government)
5
@White Buffalo
My greatest fear is finding joy in a Philly cheese steak and a side of poutine but that is a different kind of fear. Having a successful economy and finding disrupters to destroy its foundation has confounded those of us who have long admired your country. Instead of electing the people who know how to fix the little problems like needing some insulation to the attic you elected the termite colonies that know only how to destroy the foundation.
3
As gerrymandered Republican state legislatures illegally strip the powers of newly elected Democratic governors, perhaps the current lame-duck Republican Congress should do the same and strip their Moron-in-Chief of his Trade Tariff Tourette Syndrome powers before the American economy does a full face plant.
But alas, I have made a reasonable suggestion, and Grand Old Power slipped the surly bonds of reason some time ago.
The reason the GOP Congress won't strip Daycare Donnie of his tariff toys is that xenophobia goes hand in white hand with the Republican Whites R Us Southern Strategy of glorious white male Christian Americans being 'God's manna from heaven'.
Not only are blacks and Latinos systematically vilified to make GOP-Trumpistan feel good about itself, but it's also important for GOP Machiavellis to add Asians and as many non-Americans to the mix so Trumpers can really feel good about themselves.
Hence the Trumpian war on evil Canada and evil Canadian milk which has wrecked angry white American men's lives for far too long.
One day Trumpistan will wake up and notice that Little Donnie has destroyed the American economy with Grand Old Poison.
But until that day arrives, not much has changed in the USA since LBJ lamented these words in 1960:
"If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored (and foreign) man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you."
Sad.
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@Socrates, it was worth watching and listening to Brian Mulroney's speech at George HW Bush's eulogy.
"Canada’s former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney appeared to take aim at the blaring policy differences between his friend, former President George H.W. Bush, and Donald Trump during a stirring eulogy on Wednesday.
Pointing to the former president's achievements when it came to addressing environmental issues as well as his work to promote free trade, Mulroney lauded Bush, who died at 94 last Friday, as a “genuine leader” who was “more courageous, more principled and more honorable” than all other presidents."
“President Bush’s decision to go forward with strong environmental legislation, including the Clean Air Act … is a splendid gift to future generations of Americans and Canadians to savor,” Mulroney said. “In the air they breathe, in the water they drink, in the forests they enjoy and the lakes, rivers and streams they cherish.”
“There’s a word for this,” he continued. “It’s called leadership.”
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@Socrates - -As concerns white looking down on green, black, sepia, you name it, why is it impossible for Times Race/Related to even mention ending the USCB system that was created, of course, so that "white" could look down on "black".
Beats me.
Larry L.
3
@Socrates
Something similar could be said of fundamentalist "Christians". Convince them that you believe they are the "real Americans", fool them into thinking you will make their beliefs the law of the land, pretend you agree with them that America is divinely inspired, and you can be their Leader. Even if you are a thrice married philanderer who cavorts with porn stars and Playmates. Even if you lie, cheat, and steal. Even if you don't attend church or are unable to recite the Apostles Creed.
66
Things I have learned about the role and powers of the American president since 2017:
1.The president can singlehandedly start a nuclear war -- guess I kinda knew that, just never had to consider it before seriously.
2. The president can shut down the government.
3. The president largely controls our international trade.
4. The president can be impeached, but not charged with a crime while in office, up to and including shooting someone on Fifth Avenue.
5. The president need not really do his job. He sets his own hours.
6. The president can work diligently to divide Americans.
7. The president can appoint people to destroy the agencies they head.
8. The president can attack the free press and label them enemies of the people.
9. The president can side with our enemies against us.
10. The president can get richer by using his office.
(Thanks, Dr. Krugman, for teaching me about #3.)
All of these perhaps could be intuited, however, by studying the photo of Trump for this Op-Ed. Man, he is zoned out. Bet he makes some wise decisions in that state of mind.
918
@Jim Muncy I'm not sure about item 4, "The president can be impeached, but not charged with a crime while in office, up to and including shooting someone on Fifth Avenue". There is nothing in the Constitution that clearly rules criminal prosecution out. Of course there is nothing in the Constitution that rules it in, either. So it really is a political issue, and that will come down to a 5-4 SCOTUS decision in favor of Mr. Trump.
62
@It Can Happen Here
So, you answered your own question. All we need now is a roll back on the number of terms a president can serve and we have an Emperor, with no clothes.
58
@Jim Muncy You might add that the president can subvert democracy itself by suggesting there have been millions of fraudulent votes.
37
Pres. Mayhem 45* has no business acumen that he can carry over to the Oval Office; after all he is the Bankruptcy King.
We are reminded this week of the Yale economics Phi Beta Kappa graduate's pronouncement in the 1990 primaries, that Reaganomics was "voodoo".
Sage words that should have been heeded.
236
@R. Law - Yep, a typo; should read 1980. GOP'ers have been lost in the Land of the Big Economic Lie ever since St. Ronnie, and find themselves ruling over economies of the poorest states, while Dems run the economies of the richest:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/2018/10/21/midterms-poorest-states-have-republican-legislatures/1694273002/
Numbers always tell the story.
102
"...it all depends on the whims of one man. And Tariff Man is ignorant, volatile and delusional."
Trump's volatility is calculated, just like everything else about him, the GOP, and Trump's administration of Koch and Goldman Sachs appointees.
The mafia is in charge of our government. It is plundering our nation and, under the guise of trade policy, squeezing our partners in negotiations and holding them for ransom through our DOJ, and plunging the stock market to short stocks.
The news last night about Huawei's executive being arrested in Canada sounds fishy. The next morning, of course, stocks plunged. I'd love to see the stock portfolios of Trump's closest buddies and family. He's friends with Carl Icahn, for example. How well did he do today? What about Jared Kushner's family?
This is the trouble with oligarchies. They're really mafias with the gloss of government to give them legitimacy. We used to talk about Vladimir Putin in the very same context. Now, we have the same putrefaction setting in here at home.
Meanwhile, as Democrats get ready to elect Pelosi as leaders, deals are being made (forced upon her) to allow for changes that would cut the power of committee chairs and increase the power of bipartisan groups, namely the Blue Dogs/No Labels alliance that is financed by the likes of James Murdoch and other billionaires.
The mafia is angling for power on the left. It's dangerous out there!
---
Things Trump Did While You Weren’t Looking https://wp.me/p2KJ3H-2ZW
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@Rima Regas,
Can't term limits on committee chairs be a good thing? More democratic.
3
@DebbieR
Everything in Congress is seniority based. You have to work pretty hard, getting reelected and then learning your topic, getting more and more responsibility, until you get to chair a sub-committee then a committee. It takes years and your party winning. So, no. It is neither fair nor is it a good idea.
The other egregious things are removing some authority from chairs and allowing any member to put things up to a vote. This helps Republicans and corporate Democrats circumvent the party mainstream.
It's all in the links above
12
@Rima Regas The Repellicans get more and more disgusting as time goes on. This sort of thing is driving decent people away from ever wanting to run for office. I think it will be a long time (as long as Trump serves only one term) before we get over what has been done to the country by the GOP since Obama won in 2008.
19
Paul Krugman Thank you for your excellent comments. It is so disturbing that Trump only seems to care about himself. He does not care about our country and our world.
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@Fred Johnson I think the same about his supporters, but the most heinous of all are those in Congress who swore oaths of office. Every single one is a traitor, and McConnell is flat-out evil.
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