Brexit, Explained: Not a Brit? Not a Problem! Here’s What It All Means

@grasspress, I hope you're wrong about that. We have a "president" who's wrecking agreements as he pleases, no matter their importance or how difficult their achievement was. Who will trust now that US treaties or trade or weapons agreements will outlast a current president's term?

The UK has full representation in the EU, a union between sovereign countries established through voluntary agreement. It’s not remotely comparable to taxation without representation under a monarch.

@Wherever Hugo this isn't 1776 we weren't dealing with a global economy where a vast majority of their economy depends on free trade within the eurozone. Everyone from sheep farmers to the banks. If it is a hard exit it will send the world economy into a tailspin not just the Uk's. I'm no expert but it's easy to understand that this is going to hurt a lot of people and they should reconsider doing it at all.

Perhaps now Ireland and the Six Counties of the North should become united and let the EU provide the aid the UK has provided thus far.

@Wherever Hugo Very witty indeed. Well done. The only problem is that the UK is completely independent as matters stand. What they are doing is ripping up economic, political and social cooperation with their near neighbours and without anything to replace it. And all based on lies, deceit and hubris.

@Wherever Hugo There you have it.. Ah, the case for hard Brexit. Jump off the cliff with airy reassurances of a soft landing. It'll all be fine! It's really this argument which has run out of road for all but the most fanatical of the people. I'm thinking of how many reasons why your 18th cent. Revolutionary War analogy doesn't fly. Got to about one hundred, so far.

@Charley Think about it. All trade between countries is governed by thousands of laws and treaties and such. You can't just fill a boat with products, send it to Europe and sell it. You need to have treaties and agreements to do that. Same with airlines, they need treaties to be able to land planes in other countries. All of the UK's current treaties are EU treaties. They will need to renegotiate separately with everyone they trade with, before normal commerce can resume.

@Charley I just read this article & my thoughts were exactly like yours. I know nothing more after reading this except I’m sure I wasted my time!

@Charley Because, overnight, the UK becomes a 'third country' like, say Mozambique. having previously enjoyed frictionless trade with the EU. Frictionless trade means, essentially, zero customs checks and inspections. If the UK opts to crash out of the EU, in the blink of an eye is lost 44 years of complex arrangements, exemptions and harmonised regulations which make cross-border trade as easy as sending car parts from California to Arizona. Probably easier.. There is nothing currently agreed to replace these arrangements and it will take decades to get them, Over this 44 years has developed an enormous volume of trade between the UK and the European mainland. Really huge. Much is complex 'just in time' logistics - the engine of the famous 'Mini' car (originally British but now made by BMW) crosses the Channel SIX times before it's ready for installation. Business will suffer dreadfully as will British jobs. Through the Single market and Customs Union, the UK has not needed to manufacture many essential items which can be otherwise obtained easily from our EU neighbours. There is for example, NO current UK manufacturer of Insulin for the UK's diabetics. Neither the UK or it's European neighbours have even a fraction of the customs facilities to change all this at a stroke, To rewind 44 years overnight. Vast tailbacks of trucks at the UK border, perishable goods and drugs rotting on the dockside is a certainty, as is the huge hit to the UK economy (and the EU's).

@PeterC Uh...just for historical reference.....Is the Declaration of Independence binding? 1776?......I think its time for a 2nd Vote on that non-binding reslution, before we wreek economic havoc on ourselves here in the Colonies.

WH, the Declaration is not a law or a treaty. There's no "binding" there, no contract. It's a statement of reasons for its authors' declaring that this was a separate nation which would leave England's dominion. Binding national creation would take a war first and various legislative establishments and processes following that. The binding laws for the US are first and foremost the Constitution, duly passed and ratified by state Congresses and forming the basis of national law and the primacy of the federal government. So no, a pleibescite did not form the US; come to think of it, it didn't form the Declaration, either.

@mark In the short term the answer is NO - famed social scientist Jonathan Haidt will tell you that in the end, we are all still human, not machines and respond as such. To do so would require rewiring thousands of years of the development of 'human nature'. Brexit and the arrival of Trump and the rise of populism are responses to 'too much, too fast' migrations into the Western hemisphere...whether you like it or not, a large portions of the population are feeling unsettled about this and the rapid change of globalization. To that end, politicians (like Hillary et. al) should stopping shouting "racist, xenophobic, etc" at people BUT rather learn to develop policies which would make this portion of the population more comfortable with change - observe more 'gradualism" - either that or you can expect the rise of populism to continue.

@Scarponi.... I'd say you fear the future and are clinging to a past that is no longer relevant, and may actually be self-destructive.

@Wherever Hugo Oh goodness Hugo I see now that you weren't being humorous after all in your earlier posts and actually believe this stuff. For the benefit of American readers who may not know a great deal about the EU, the UK is independent. Always has been. It controls its own economy, tax, social welfare, education, defence, justice and health systems which account for the overwhelming majority of public expenditure. It has ceded sovereignty in certain areas such as air travel (which has led to greater choice and cheaper flights for consumers), trade agreements (it now benefits from hundreds of EU trade agreements), the single market (friction-less trade within the EU based on common standards - somewhat like the US) etc. And all of this without federalizing the EU. In fact the EU budget is just over 1% of EU-wide GDP. If the UL leaves with the current deal, or worse without a deal, it will be worse off under every single economic indicator and will not be any more or less "independent". Brexit is simply a foolhardy folly by a nation which still has not found its place in the world having lost its Empire and which is losing influence by the day as trading partner look on aghast as senior UK Government Ministers chase Unicorns.

The people had that chance two years ago and they took it. You can’t have do-overs and still maintain the integrity of elections. Otherwise, what’s the oint.

@Guano Rey The referendum was deliberately worded by Parliament to be non-binding. They could have done otherwise but elected to give the government a legal reason to remain. That was very wise given the interference and misinformation that produced a narrow victory for the leavers.

@Thos Gryphon .... didnt the People already decide?? Maybe we should have a second vote in USA on whether to Declare Independence or not....whaddya say?

@Grindelwald - you were certainly brief but what was your point, other than misstating the size of the EU ? The EU still consists of 28 countries, until the UK leaves when it becomes a union (so called) of 27 countries.

@Grindelwald It was probably irrevokable when a group of Colonists sent a Declaration of Independence to a German King sitting on the English Throne....a much earlier version of the EU.

@LimaTango, sorry but I have made a number of comments on this topic in the past and I fear repeating myself too much. Perhaps this time I was indeed too brief. Have you read Article 50? It's short, explicit, and at least to a non-lawyer like me quite clear. I believe that as of the receipt by the EU of the formal statement from the UK invoking Article 50, the UK became no longer a full member of the EU. In particular, it could no longer vote on EU laws and regulations but was still bound by them for a two-year period during which a new arrangement between the EU and the UK could be drawn up. Article 50 was invoked formally on (or close to) March 29, 2017, so the deadline for approving a new trade agreement is March 29, 2019. I have been told repeatedly that absent a signed agreement, the UK automatically becomes a "third nation" on March 30, 2019. I'm sorry to upset people. I am just an ordinary person who is unhappy that the UK seems to be overestimating its relative strength in a critical negotiation. This really isn't good for either side, nor for the world in general. Good luck LimaTango!

@ShihTzu Mum Absolutely agree. This is all disgraceful. I've criticized Tory arrogance (below) but would also point to UK's prevailing monolingualism. It's handy for throwing your weight around (maybe), but trickier when you need to know what the other guys really think. E.g., after the Brexit vote, one actually heard British government reps claiming that the Germans would "give us a good deal" because "they want to sell us their cars". They were clearly not reading the German (or French, or Italian, or Spanish) press. Have observed this with my own eyes in Brussels on occasion. Language matters.

@ShihTzu Mum. Time for me to leave, once again, as I did in 1970. I returned in 2005 to a country that I had better memories of in 1970, and things have gotten politically worse since the Cameroonians failed the nation. Economically things are better, but money is the root of all evil, supposedly.

@ShihTzu Mum...for another vote to be taken - the UK does do at its peril...

@Jo Williams That was the kind of thinking that led to the original referendum passing. The argument was, all we need to do is get free from the pesky EU, and then all sorts of opportunities will open up, countries will flock to us... but the reality is far different. The UK is finding that they are stuck with all sorts of unpleasant negotiations, other countries are not talking trade with them until they see how all this shakes out, and meanwhile, the cliff edge is ever nearer. And the EU doesn't seem to be changing any of its rules, which I agree can be onerous. Britain has blundered.

@Jo Williams The UK is on the defence because what they sought from Brexit was based on deceit and hubris and not any real analysis. For your information the EU is based on law. It has to be because that is the only way to bid 28 independent states. The UK has negotiated more opt-outs from these laws than any other member state in the EU. In other words they have a better current deal than anyone else. The EU has four core freedoms. Freedom of movement of persons (EU citizens), capital, services and goods. They are all interlinked and they do not want to compromise on these freedoms. The UK wants to stop freedom of movement for EU citizens and cherry pick the other freedoms. Imagine if a US state wished to leave the USA and wished to remove the freedom of other US citizens to move to their State while retaining all the other benefits without having to obey federal laws? That is part of what the UK has actually sought. The proponents said it would be the easiest deal in history and ignored the warning of their civil service, their diplomatic corps and experts from every field. Indeed. all expert opinion was derided. And look where they are now? They have sold their people a lie. The UK has the most incompetent Government since WW1. Now that's a fact! I feel sorry for thinking British people. They don't deserve this farce.

Actually, I think your U.S. scenario may be approaching, for a different reason. Take Arizona- when it runs out of water, at some point it will have to confront that old Supreme Court decision on the right to travel. The same might be said for many cities that have stressed physical, natural resources that can’t take an influx of people wanting to move there. I sense, though not a Brexit follower, that there are responsibilities along with those rights, that may be up for negotiation. At the end of the day, Britain may just have to go back to being it’s own nation. The EU will be the poorer, and old continental ....disagreements will become more prominent. The EU needs to compromise, for its own survival.

@Chris Durban - well said. You missed the anti-semitism issue that seems to have gone to sleep in the last month, but will surely return to haunt Corbyn, et al, soon enough.

@Chris Durban. Agree with every word. Britannia no longer rules the waves and people at home need to get on board with this. Obama told the Brits in plain language that we would have to get to the back of the queue when it came to trade. Even Trump knows this, but has put it in softer terms. NOBODY is rushing to sign trade deals as we simply do not know the terms on which they will be negotiated. And judging by the unholy mess, made so far, I don't hold out much hope. The message has still not hit home. Britain is the laughing stock of the world. I despair, I really do.

@V Nagarajan The EU is far from perfect, but all the countries you mention and their budget problems, are connected to being membersw of the EUROzone, which the UK ist not. While EU could be improved (and the Britons blockes reforms and improvement more than most) it is the EURO which has been a Problem for most countries with the exception of Germany. Most of the problems of ITaly, Spain and Greece come from, no longer bein able to devalue their currency. This has little to do with the EU as such.

@V Nagarajan : I'm not sure there is anything that is a panacea for economic instability. It happens among countries and the states/provinces within them. The better question is whether exiting an economic alliance providing leverage on the world stage is the right move for the UK? It has proven to be a destabilizing move with what looks like the imminent failure of a second government, doubts among the populace and worry in the business community. This, in my opinion, is a classic case of an entity undertaking a strategic action without having a goal. They were simply sold they should not be a part of the EU by con men appealing to their sense of national pride. Disgraceful. Inept.

@lionel47-No con, simply lack of information from politicians who were inept and incompetent. The whole issue got out of hand when Cameron could not control a number of fellow party members who wanted out of the EU at ANY COST, regardless of the cronyism, corruption and jobs for failed politicians within the EU bureaucracy.

@George Campbell, and what of imports? Tariffs will raise the costs of items as will other aspects of suddenly "foreign" trade. Already shortages of necessities are feared. This, even as the troubles you aptly predict with exports occur. It seems a lose-lose proposition for the British people. And who stands to gain in it? I'd like to know that.

@Riskstrategies It is quit an accomplishment to send in a post in which every sentence is false. 1. The EU is created to garantee peace and democracy in Europe. It has succeeded fairly well, remember the dictators and colonels regimes in southern Europe and the communist dictatorships in Eastern Europe. 2. There is one Euro that stand against all kinds of attacks and is grown to be an important currency. 3. All european countries were invited, mainly because what is stated in 1. And they all love to be part of this club, and try to achieve its standards. 4. Of course every country puts its own good first. But is not allways "your loss is my gain", mostly there are win-win situations. 5. The EU wont last forever. It will last for decades to come, and after that our grandchildren will make the decisions.

@Riskstrategies Oh dear oh dear. A demonstrably untrue post in every respect filled with opinion and no facts. Simon van Dijk's post rebuts very well. "There is not a single country of the European Union that will put the common good above its own national interest." you state. You must be talking about the UK then as the UK has negotiated more opt-outs from EU laws than any other state of the EU. Strangely enough the other 27 EU states are completely united in their approach to the UK negotiations but the UK Government it would seem is unable to put the common good above its own sectional interests and is in a state of perpetual civil war. You are looking in a mirror of your own making.

@baldo Exactly. Rhetoric to the contrary, there are some issues that are just too complex, far-reaching, and consequential to be left entirely to a simple yes/no public vote.

@Kate Vyner after having lived in London with my family for 23 years, raising our children there and being very much pro-EU the current state-of-play is depressing. It does seem that in both our countries sound bites and ideas of the moment are the language of our elected and appointed representatives. Arriving for two years now over thirty years ago we were delighted to stay and sad to leave. Even sadder the USA we left seems to have disappeared and the UK we love seems to be following suit.

@Kate Vyner Could not agree more. The way this has been handled is an embarrassment.

@Bill Wilson Memory always shades the past in a brighter light. I would disagree that the USA of your past has disappeared. I still see volunteer firefighters and EMTs helping people and teachers trying to educate people. We had a corrupt and poorly run government when you left 23 years ago, and we still do, but please don't put all Americans together in a box because regardless of our political stripes, we still have plenty of good people doing good things.

@highway: Barack Obama won in 2012 with a 52% majority of the vote. Are you saying therefore his election is invalid? What is a sufficient majority vote then?

@Jim Quinn We all knew that this was the major stumbling block. It was kicked down the road because it was too uncomfortable to address. Dublin and the EU has made it perfectly clear but the government has glossed over anything that has been raised.

@MTB No, you haven't been sold down the river by the politicians who negotiated the Brexit. You have been fooled by the Brexiters who told you that it would be possible to keep the advantages of the bloc while leaving it at the same time. Unfortunately, the May deal is the best possible solution when you want to leave. Better is only to change your mind. I might remind you that the British economy was disastrously weak when the UK joined the EWG

@aplysia austriaca Plus, there is more and more evidence that Russian interference helped sway voters towards Leave. The outside influences should negate the vote entirely.

About Russia's interferences in Britain and other nations' crucial decisions, always bending them toward chaos and loss, it begins to appear that war by political or economic means is the agenda, and yes, by technological means as well. This aggressive behavior by Putin, long seeking revenge for the losses Russia bore not so far back, suggests that this clever, unprincipled man seeks to gain dominance through visiting destruction on his victims. Individuals, as we know, or whole states. The sooner the rest of us pay attention, serious attention, to this danger, the better.

@Stephanie Technically, I think that's what a divorce bill is too.

@Derseijl, the Article 50 'negotiations' aren't really negotiations, they are a process to dis-entangle a member country from the EU integration to become a non-member (or 'third country), i.e. Art 50 is about leaving where the leaving member tells the EU how it wants to leave. BREXIT, too, was all about leaving the EU. As to a future trade relationship, this can only be negotiated once Britain has left the EU and has become a third country.