Freedom and righteousness are just euphemisms for guns and religion and I don't think Texas will swing Democratic for some time. But disliking Trump absolutely crosses party lines. The Texans I've met are respectful, law-abiding people which puts them at odds with Trump.
2
It is best to think of Trump as an accelerant of pre-existing demographic and economic trends in the state. From the growing minority and transplant population to an increasingly educated workforce to Texas businesses that are in the forefront of a global economy, Texas has been trending in this direction for a number of years and is not the same place it was even 20 years ago.
What Trump has done is force Texans to take a look in the mirror and consider what political path is the road to Texas prosperity. For urban Texans in Austin, San Antonio, Dallas and Houston -- and their suburbs -- that often now means voting against the far right, with its various phobias that make attracting new workers and businesses into the state more difficult. It also means a rejection of Trump's trade policy idiocy, which threatens that large part of the Texas economy which is export-dependent.
Yes, rural Texas remains largely fundamentalist in its religion and deeply conservative in its social values. But Texas as a whole is shifting population from rural areas to urban and suburban areas; like the rest of the nation, the new jobs are in the cities, not in the country.
Is Texas going to turn deep blue in the next two years? No, but it is probably going to be a very competitive purple with its 38 electoral votes up for grabs and control of state government also up for grabs in 2022.
5
A real Trump accomplishment. Turning Texas purple
8
Evangelical Christian writing here. Responding to Ms. McCarty's message at the tail end of your article.
I am a retired Latin teacher. For fifteen years, I taught in a private Christian school in Philadelphia. Lotta things I was permitted to do.
Pray before class? Absolutely.
Talk about the Bible and the Christian faith? Oh yes.
Talk to students individually about those things? Yes.
BUT--
--the school didn't HIRE me to do any of the above. They HIRED me to teach Latin. So guess what?
I taught Latin.
The Christian faith, we are told, is declining in this country. There are more Muslims than ever before. Plus Hindus. Some Buddhists. A huge contingent of "irreligious" or "uncommitted" or "non-denominational." Some atheists. Not many perhaps. Some.
Mark me well, New York Times!
If I seek elective office in this country--or in any part of this country--
--I am not required to seek to convert my fellow Americans to the Christian faith. I may (personally) desire that. But I was not ELECTED to do that.
I was ELECTED---
--to discharge my duties according to the LAWS and STATUTES of this country.
NOT--
--to impose "righteousness." Of any kind. Upon anyone.
EXCEPT--
--insofar as ANY just laws or statutes do in fact promote "righteousness." Upon EVERYONE. All the time.
I hope I make myself clear.
It'd be good, I'm thinking--
--if lots of Christians got clear on this point.
That'd be good.
Very good.
4
The march of Texas to turn blue, like its state flower blue bonnets, is inexorable, with or without Trump. Even In Collin county, in the zip code 75023, which is 3rd highest GOP dollars contributor in USA, In just last 20 years, GOP margin there is down from 45 pct to 6 Pct in 2018.
Its next to flip after Dallas, Houston, Austin, FortWorth.
5
Texas Turns Blue In 2022! Woo hoo!
1
It will be interesting to see the extent to which the likelihood of continuing competitive general elections in Texas will affect the debate here on issues like local control and ballot access.
By the way, some of the commenters know about as much about day to day life in Texas as wingnuts know about day to day life in San Francisco.
An interesting question of who is more unlikable and motivates people to go out and vote against them- Trump or Cruz. I suspect Democratic voter turn-out was even higher this election than it might be next because of Cruz, which pulled out down-ballot votes for other Demos. (This was also a first chance for Democrats to "vote" back against Trump and the Republican party.) If Dems don't come up with a very good candidate next time around, they can still win the White House but leave Texas very red.
1
Why am I reminded of the Times story from October 2016 predicting a good chance of Hillary taking Texas?
2
Experts here imply that it may take a long time for Texas to turn blue. I think it's about to happen. Look at the regional graphs for the decline of the Republican vote in Dallas, Austin, etc. Trace lines connecting the top centers of the bars for the last three elections in all these regions. Project them 2 years ahead. what do you see and what does it tell us about the prospects of the Texas GOP? Sometimes monumental social changes happen really fast.
1
The country as a whole is becoming more diversified and better educated. The reason that Republicans maintain a hold on power is because of the manifestly non-representative nature of institutions like the Senate. As Paul Krugman observed, the race for the majority in the Senate happens in a whole different country - a lot whiter and less well educated than the country at large.
5
This article reminds me of Eric Cantor’s piece two days ago which I would paraphrase as “Republicans need to follow the Democrats on healthcare, taxes, and infrastructure.”
The through line is that the GOP isn’t listening to their people, and fear, lies, and voter suppression aren’t enough to maintain a majority. Not passing infrastructure, healthcare, and opioid legislation was a huge mistake, and shows how out of touch they are.
The tax-theft bill of 2017 might have been the final lie that exposed the GOP for what it is. Anyone not blindly partisan understood exactly who benefitted at the expense of many.
The problem facing the house now is that most voters in 2020 will not pay attention to the congress. Just like Obama was blamed for failures caused by the GOP house, Trump will be credited for legislation pushed by the Dem house.
O’Rourke/Abrams 2020
1
"Freedom and righteousness" indeed! Freedom for the affluent and the white, not so much for anyone else. Righteousness? How about "So show your love for the alien, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt".
People like Ms. McCarty give Christianity a bad name.
5
Cue voter disenfranchisement laws on 3... 2...
3
Perhaps a Democratic win in Texas in 2020 would be enough to convince Trump he really lost the election fair and square? Or perhaps he would call out the army.
1
In these weird times with a sitting president who is unhinged from reality, the GOP would be wise, even though it would anger the Trumpettes of his base, to challenge him in a 2020 primary. The 35 seats recaptured by the Democrats in the House should be a wake up call that Trump's exhortations that a vote for each House Republican candidate was a vote for him turned out to be nothing short of a thunderous repudiation of Trump. For the GOP to remain tethered to Trump in 2020 would be asking for a cataclysmic turnover, with a Democratic president, Democratic House, and probably a Democratic Senate, all the result of a nation of voters who want to put the Trump presidency out to pasture. Is it not clear that Trump is a magician? He has the power to turn red into blue!
3
Season 2 of the Trump presidency had a catastrophic impact. Still picking up my jaw from his behavior in Helsinki. And the Trump Tower Meeting. The appointment of Whitaker.
A complicit Republican Congress in denial. Back channel to Moscow and the hacking of Democrats unresolved. Graft and corruption. Well, it certainly is Mueller Time.
4
Beto has that "it" factor so rare in politicians, reminiscent of Obama and John F. Kennedy. Not sure if a less charismatic, less enthusiasm generating candidate could have come so close in Texas. I do think he should have moderated his stances a little to win more purple and red counties on the verge. What plays so well with the people outside Texas that donated to his campaign (like me) likely does not to the actually voters who he needs to vote for him. And he needed every vote, as do the Dems. Run again in 2020, Beto, whether its for Senate again or the White House. You have proven, at the very least, that the way you campaign brings good energy to the otherwise dull and dark field of politics today.
5
People are streaming out of California due to high taxes and high cost of living, but they are bringing their Democratic voting habits with them.
3
I would like to see Beto run for President in 2020 offering a stark contrast to Trump.
5
You're so self-absorbed with old American fights, that you missed the biggest on in us history.
China has infiltrated our system like we would never have allowed the Soviets. They are in position of government power where critical decisions are made, and they are purposefully killing off powerful, smart Americans in an effort to take dominance of the world.
We're in WWIII with China, and answers have to quick, harsh and dramatic. Intern high-tech Chinese officials ASAP. Get them out of our tech industries.
They have no loyalty to American ideas, in fact they despise them and the want to kill us. End them.
Greg Abbott a moderate? Because he dares state in public that it's a fact that the world isn't flat? Gimme a break. At one sanguine point in the 2016 campaign Hillary's people suggested that Texas was in play and she should campaign there. I don't recall if she did go to Texas, but someone definitely dropped the ball in three or four other states. Now, despite O'Rourke having lost to a less than enchanting Ted Cruz by more than 200,000 votes, this article recommends that the Dems repeat the same mistake in 2020, thereby enabling Trump to once again "thread the Electoral College needle" to re-election, while once again losing the popular vote. Very bad suggestion!!!
1
Far right conservatives think they can use DPS and ICE to keep the “wrong” thinking people out of the state. They cannot guard the Red River and keep Easterners who think like Leslie from the movie Giant out of the state. In time, the demographics will change. This is an inexorable fact.
1
I did my part to elect Colin Allred in my House district, and get rid of Pete Sessions (you're welcome). We Democrats have a long way to go in Texas, but at least we have started. I was an independent voter until last year. In 2017, I became a contributing Democrat, due to the continuing horror of Trump. I will stay a Democrat for life, because I have now seen what Republicans do with full power, and clearly it is bad. I hope Beto will run for Cornyn's seat in 2020. Cornyn is not popular here, and I think Beto can win.
9
Change happens slowly at first, then all at once. Look how quickly Virginia went from red to purple to blue. The same thing happened in Colorado and Nevada. Now Georgia, Arizona and even Texas may be heading in the same direction. Should that happen, the story won't be "Why can't the Democrats win Ohio?" It'll be, "How did the GOP manage to lose the sunbelt?"
12
Thomas Edsall analysis of the changes in Texas will inexorably apply to many other states that, right now, are solidly red.
The United States has become more urban since its founding because that's where most jobs are (and for each new generation, that's where the excitement is). Slowly but surely, state that have any thriving metropolitan areas will turn pink, purple, blue.
It's true that Trump's ardent supporters will stick with him, no matter what. But their portion of the population is stagnant (in every sense of the word) and hasn't grown since he was elected.
Julie McCarty is their perfect representative: white, Christian, middle-aged, and unbending in her opposition to the changes in America. Like her Tea Party stalwarts, she has seen the future and she hates it.
17
The President is absolutely the worst politician ever and seems dumber than the Iranian Mullahs that are stupidly calling for Israel's destruction. The President is right about illegal immigration, trade deals, NATO, tax reforms but insults everybody along the way. He's right about those CA wildfires too but instead giving all possible Fed aid first then ordering a complete review of the forestry efforts there he insults the state and its agencies first. He had it all and blew it and maybe the party will reject him for 2020.
5
The situation for Texas correlates with a more general realignment in the country between rural, non-college blue collar voters and urban, college white collar voters.
To complete the realignment, Democrats will need to shed their love of federal solutions to many social and economic problems. Many of the realigned Republicans will stay with Democrats if they move more responsibility and tax dollars back to the states. They are more libertarian than either party and are tired of watching the federal government try to tackle what it is not good at.
I can see Democrats becoming a majority party on a platform of less Washington and more state government, if that is what state voters choose. This will be hard for Democrats, but the alternative is a federal government like the Trump administration. Not very good!
1
Other factors deserve consideration. Rural areas suffer from a lack of information about the actions of the Republican-controlled government and how those actions directly affect their lives. Texas has failed to expand Medicaid and as a result has the largest number of uninsured in the country and rural hospitals are at great risk. Also, Texas has refused to reform funding public education, reducing the state participation in costs and forcing local property taxes up. And Texas has continued to keep corporate taxes and accountability low while needs of ordinary Texans go unmet. Income inequality is rising. Since they can't compete on the issues, Republicans have acted to suppress the vote to stay in power. In 2018 Democratic candidates focused on these issues. As people become more aware, more aware people have and will vote for those who will act on their behalf.
19
The gubernatorial race might have been closer if they'd had a better candidate. Gove. Abbott had a massive funding advantage, and the stronger Democratic candidates stayed out. Lupe Valdez, the Democratic nominee, was a very weak candidate. She had been a mediocre sheriff in Dallas County, and gave every indication of being way over her head - uninformed on the issues and clueless on how to solve problems. Trying to run as a Hispanic without bringing skills to do the job didn't work for her.
6
Wow. Am I reading between the cow pies that our Joe Strauss might have voted for Beto? Even if not, admitting he split the ticket!
My district (#31) also came within under 3% point difference with the worthless incumbent.
That woman in Tarrant County should just keep whistling as she walks past the graveyard.
Trump is why I don't want an impeachment. A president Pence will not rally the fact based voters in the same way.
14
If one of the genuine earmarks of a modern conservative is the seething anger felt when some politician tells him or her how to vote, Texans may be ready to turn blue.
Sticking with the cowboy metaphor, you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink.
Liberals tend to band together voluntarily because of a common view on a particular social issue.
As it turns out, Texans – at least in the Greater Dallas and Fort Worth area and down around El Paso and San Antonio – may prefer that sort of independence to being hammered incessantly by right-wingers beholden entirely to the oil and gas industry and by doctrinaire evangelical Christians.
15
Democracy has a pulse.
10
Complete hogwash. We heard this 15 years ago when Ruy Teixeira wrote "The Emerging Democratic Majority" claiming Texas would be "blue" TODAY!
What does Teixeira say today?
"There is no way around it — if Democrats hope to be competitive in Ohio and similar states in 2020, they must do the hard thing: find a way to reach hearts and minds among white non-college voters."
We have only begun to see the tip of the spear in conservative voter suppression attempts. To wit:
First allowing Native Americans in North Dakota to vote in primaries despite not having a street address then changing the rules for the general and suppressing their vote by requiring a street address.
In Texas, it seems not even a birth certificate is acceptable as proof of citizenship anymore as Latinos in the Rio Grande valley must now produce a mid wife certificate before they can vote.
Brian Kemp in Georgia.
Every time Democrats fall in love with a candidate (this time Beto O'Rourke) it creates a halo effect they think extends to future elections.
The GOP can turn out the hard white vote so well in rural areas the numbers can over come the more populated urban areas where diversity voter turn out is not so strong.
Forget Texas. focus on where you can win and are not: AZ, GA, IA, OH.
BTW, Trump may have won Texas by 800,000 votes, but that was 450,000 fewer than Romney win there.
Thank you, Hillary.
5
Exactly. As I tell my friends who are foaming at the mouth for Traitor Trump's impeachment, move on. He is the best advertisement for a Democratic senate majority and a Democratic president in 2020.
Thank you for your service, Tom Steyer, now let's keep the sociopath on life support.
14
@george eliot
Absolutely. I made the same point earlier in the comment stream and I'm sure its not lost on the Republican leadership. My feeling is that right now they are working on how best to dump Trump without losing his base. The most obvious way is to blame Muller and pin him on the Democrats. Watch for them and FOX to stop trying to suppress his report but instead quietly encourage its release once the House switches over. Democrats need to move on. Be careful what you wish for. As I said in the earlier comment, this is a game of chess not checkers.
5
No, Democrats do not need to ‘move on’. Not yet. If the sitting president really did sell our country out to Russia to steal the election, we need to know about it.
2
Now all those new Democratic public servants just better do a darn good job!
3
I've always thought women might do better at managing society, especially government, than men. Indeed, for much of my life (I'm 70) they could hardly do worse. Thank you women and millennials. You just may reverse the death spiral that started with Reagan and save the United States.
23
As a lifelong Republican of 40 yrs, I’ve never seen a politician devote such massive time & resources to hiding their tax returns & to fighting corruption investigations as Trump. Meanwhile, climate change is drying out water reservoirs for millions of Americans & farmers, infrastructures are crumbling, healthcare is being cut, federal deficits are exploding, “natural” disasters destroying cities, Americans are mass killing fellow Americans in hate. Not a single one of my votes went towards Trump/GOP candidates in midterm elections. I voted for all Democratic candidates instead. This is new normal for Republicans.
35
Part 2. It still is going to come down to numbers. The Texas Democratic party, and the national Democrats are going to have to invest heavily in candidate recruitment, voter registration and actual voting along with broad community outreach.
The three axis I described earlier are critical but so is changing the voting patterns in those 168 counties that Mrs. Clinton got less than 25% of the vote. If you can change that vote even five to ten percent then the urban strategy can work. There is as yet no evidence that even Congressman O'Rourke has done that. In three really bad counties for Democrats across the last four presidential elections, Loving, King and Oldham Congressman O'Rourke did not move the needle. Mrs. Clinton received five votes in King, four in Loving and 78 in Oldham. The Congressman received six in Loving, six in King and 82 in Oldham. The "tyranny of small numbers" continues in rural Texas. Those counties have to begin to migrate to higher percentages for Democratic candidates. That will take organization, energy and messages that speak to those Texans.
Texas will vote blue again but to make it sustainable a lot more has to happen than just turning the urban core a deeper color blue.
3
Maybe trump will indeed MAGA, not in the way the Republicans are assuming, but by turning the country purple/blue and waking up an apathetic citizenry now alarmed to our approaching oligarchy.
26
Texas "invited" many corporations to relocate from other less "business-friendly" states, including mine. Texas dd this by offering low or no taxes and cheap energy, to name two positives; plus, as needed, a promise of the freedom to pillage. Perhaps something they did not consider is that adults-- fully formed-- were the employees who would relocate. In some cases these people brought their "coastal values" with them. They might go for some of the conservative texas stuff, but hating gay folks; putting jesus in schools; and disallowing contraception just aren't things former coastals will embrace. Voila: these transplants will vote for dems. And since freedom begets freedom, that trend will probably continue.
126
@karen
That is not what happened! Incomers put Cruz in the Senate.
2
That is correct -- the transplants did a LOT to turn the state red to begin with. Those who had lived in Texas for awhile -- or at least their parents and grandparents; at least those not angling for the class status that came with calling yourself a Republican -- had first hand knowledge of what the Democrats -- FDR etc.-- had done for them and anyone (white or black) roughly in their economic class.
4
@karen
Problem with West and East Coast Cultural Marxists--self-indulgent and more dogmatic than Islam. Coming from Stalin's velvet-gloved gulags has its givens, e.g., Google, FB, Apple. Send 'em back before Texas is trashed.
1
Let's hope that the large Democratic Senate losses in Indiana (Donnelly) and Missouri (McHaskill) compared to O'Rourke's tight race in Texas show the Democratic Party what it needs to emphasize for future wins.
Donnelly and McHaskill ran away from progressivism, trying to reassure voters that they weren't part of the "crazy" left, and they lost, big time.
O'Rourke ran on a strongly left oriented, progressive platform and came close to winning.
There's an obvious lesson there for the Democratic Party: The progressive left is where you can win by embracing it and not running away from it.
But I bet Democrats will ignore that winning strategy anyway to appease its "centrist," "moneyed" establishment.
6
@Steve C Won't work everywhere, Steve. Every state has its own 'flavor' of citizen. Some are still quite center right.
5
@Steve C
I think a lot of the Beto-McHaskill difference was their personalities, not where they fell on the lib-con scale. Beto was, to use the old Huber Humphrey line, a "happy warrior." He is young and young looking and has a youthful projection while being a proven, effective House member. He consistently took the high road, even chastising his own supporters when they went after Cruz and his wife.
Trump is right about one thing. Cruz is Lying Ted. He is morally bankrupt and not a nice man.
Anyway, guess it's time to peel my Beto sticker off of my bumper.............hmmmm, maybe not.
10
barbara jackson and Jus' Me, NYT,
This "every state is different" and "personality counts" gets overdone.
Here in Idaho, the ballot initiative to expand Medicaid (a very progressive issue) got more votes, by thousands, than did the winning Republican gubernatorial candidate. When presented with a clear issue, and not just a political label, voters in very red Idaho voted for what would help Idaho's needy.
When Democrats everywhere stop being politicians pandering to big money and start being the supporters of the poor, the working and the middle classes (ie, the vast majority of people in red and blue states) running on issues that help those groups, then they'll win elections everywhere, regardless of personality. (How much personality does a ballot initiative have?)
7
Julie McCarty is emblematic of what is wrong with the GOP in Texas: "I am called to fight for freedom and righteousness, and that is all I know how to do". So long as the GOP thinks "righteousness" is on the ticket, they will continue too fall. Their brand of righteousness is a code word for "Christian Fundamentalism", a position many of us believe is akin to Christian Sharia. The Founding Fathers put the 1st Amendment in the Constitution for a reason - they had fled the religious political climate of Anglican England, and were not prepared to establish another religious government here. Unless and until the GOP expels the fundamentalists, Texas and the rest of the South will continue to move Blue. Joe Straus knows whereof he speaks.
27
Even if Trump doesn't run, I question how long the GOP will survive -- it chose to embrace him and his outlandish behavior as a means of motivating "the base" and anything less than Trump-like candidates will therefore lose those worshiping followers. The GOP can't have it both ways: they want the votes of racists, Nazis, anti-feminists, anti-scientists, Christian supremacists and gun fanatics and therefore they are left with disenfranchising everyone else as their only path to victory.
11
@Susan This isn't the first looney sideshow the repubs have put on. Remember the lineup when Romney was running. Good grief - talk about a freak show. . .
2
I live in a part of Maryland that always votes Republican. There is nothing wrong with having two sides and voting for a preference. But I am appalled at the idea that "I am called to fight for freedom and righteousness", J. McCarty. If we get rid of Trump and Tea Party loyalists we could return to a more civil system where ideas not insults or dog whistles are the reason to vote. Ideas that are positive on both sides so we don't lose whichever way we vote and compromise is not a dirty word.
18
“Less polarizing and less dogmatic conservative Republicans — Governor Greg Abbott***.”
Isn’t Abbott the guy who had Ted Nugent on the stage with him, who fed the right-wing fantasies about military maneuvers being a prelude to “liberal” take over and who blocked Medicaid expansion for no good reason? If he’s less polarizing and dogmatic then Texas is still deep red.
9
@EJS
It's all relative! Compared to the others mentioned, he's more moderate and even slightly likable.
We are NOT deep red any more. Dems did astoundingly well down ticket.
5
I can’t go out in the rain. (By D. Trump)
Now please don’t think I’m disrespecting
those who fought and died in our name
but candy floss hair is a delicate crown
and I can’t go out in the rain!
I know the fake news will all have a go -
they’ll say I’m self centered and vain -
but I tell you my hair is a sensitive wisp
and I’m not going out in the rain!
Of course I’ve been caught playing golf -
but I’m an athlete who’s true to his game -
and crying round gravestones isn’t my thing.
Others can look glum in the rain.
And what if a gust caught my hair, blew it off,
left me standing quite bald and ashamed?
Is that how America wants me seen? No!
So I shan’t go out in the rain!
Sure I’m sorry for the poor guys who died,
it was dreadful, dreadful - but I’m not to blame
they chose to enlist (I dodged the draft),
so i won’t risk my weave in the rain.
Now I’ve told you five times, I think it’s quite clear
please don’t insult me by asking again -
you reporters are just a disgrace to your job,
but not me -
I have candy floss, fly away, sensitive hair,
and I’m not going out in the rain!
29
@Lewis M Simons
Too, too funny! Thank You for this moment of laughter !
2
@Lewis M Simons Oh mercy! You made my day!
2
That's ambitious dream, but then it's just dream :)
In 2012 I was pegging Texas to be full Blue by 2028, for the following reasons:
-GOP attrition due to mortality without replenishment (i.e. old votes dying of old age and young people wanting nothing to do with their policies)
-Influx of Blue Votes due to migration of immigrants and citizens leaving other states
-Eventually the state in particular (and nation in general) would mature past rampant voter suppression tactics
I don't see any reason to walk any of that back so far.
8
There is no constitutional requirement that a party nominate a sitting president to be its candidate in the next election. 2020 could be a *very* interesting year.
55
@Pajama Sam Trump will NEVER voluntarily leave the White House. Pray he doesn't fire Mattis so someone can step in and remove him when he refuses to recognize 2020's 10-point Democratic victory.
5
We as Democrats need to beat Trump decisively across the board. Winning in such places as Texas will make it much harder for Trump to claim that the vote was rigged as he will do if the electoral college is close at all. Trump is out to destroy the value of our vote and claim the country as his own personal fiefdom. Go Texas!
10
A blue Texas is just around the corner and it always will be, enough said.
3
@Tom
Please weigh in in two years.
Texas was never Republican for 120 years after the Civil War.
The pendulum swings.
3
@Tom Just caught Ed Rollins (Reagan's polling guru) giving his pre-election analysis about there was little chance the Republicans would lose the House and he had been doing political prognostication for "fifty years" . He saw Republican candidates just losing just a few seats "here and there". Right Ed - and here and there and her and there and here and there ........ You might get to that corner quicker than you think.
1
Some good has to come out of this jerk being president!
6
Please read:
https://www.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article221605150.html
'This is not all of us.’ Call to remove Muslim from post divides Tarrant Republicans.
3
I'm not sure starting a bar graph in 2000 is very indicative of a trend in Texas. I believe the conclusions are accurate. Between Beto and Trump, Texas is historically blue at the moment. 2000 is just a really bad year to start describing trends.
A popular Texas governor had just been appointed president after a controversial election. One year later we hit 9/11. From 2000-2004 is basically awash in yellow ribbons and American flags. You can see the tension ebb slightly only to return after Obamacare. Now Texans really don't like Trump and Cruz is a walking humiliation.
Is this really a trend or are we just watching real world events in bar graph form?
By the way, don't use bar graphs to represent trend lines. That's why a line graph exists. You shouldn't represent time as a discrete variable. Time is continuous and then some. Ask Einstein. If you're boxing elections, you need to re-think how you're creating graphics.
4
Several races at the county level in my county which has been heavily Republican were quite close. The Dems did not make it but they were only a few percentage points behind the incumbents. I don't doubt that we stalwarts will keep pushing and making others aware of the damage being done by underfunded public schools and social services, the effort to circumvent the SCOTUS Roe v Wade decision, the gerrymandering and continued attempts to politicize school books and bring back Christianity to public schools. It is not a matter of separation of church and state, but that some right wing Christians feel the need to push their views on the rest of us including the kids. Trump has done wonders for motivating new citizens to get involved and vote. Definitely a case of turning a GOP pig's ear into a Dem silk purse.
13
To me, the key to the strong Democratic performance in TX lies in having fantastic candidates who were actually competing like they wanted to win. Not just saying, "Oh this is a red state, why bother?" like Dems have been wont to do in recent times. But actually going for it - and caring enough about their state and nation to go for it. As a volunteer who spent the last weeks before election day knocking on doors for Beto O' Rourke in the eastern suburbs of Dallas (where Colin Allred won!), I truly think that came across to residents.
These candidates - and their volunteers - really worked for these results: Organizing, and putting in the hard work it takes to reach out to voters. Having a platform and potent messages that gave even the most jaded and cynical voters a reason to cast their ballots for Democrats instead of just staying home - and gave the newest voters an exciting chance to participate, many for the first time. Canvassing towns and neighborhoods that rarely saw canvassers before. Imparting the urgency of the moment, the importance of voting as a civic duty, the sense - across class, race, gender and even party lines - that we are all in this together, that many many of us do not like the direction our country has taken, and that it is up to all of us, together, to step up and turn this around. I think this made the difference and that if we keep it up, we will persevere.
Texas is great, and even though Beto lost it was so worth it to have tried. Onward!
15
Part 1. While I believe that Mr. Edsall is right I want to point out the "tyranny of small numbers" (my term). In the 2016 election Hillary Clinton received less than 100 votes in 15 different counties. In 89 counties she received less than 999 votes, and finally, in 168 counties she received less than 25% of the total vote. Many of these counties are out in the panhandle area and don't have a lot of total votes the math is horrible and the current emphasis on winning the core urban areas and hoping to run up the count there and then survive the rural areas is not an achievable outcome.
If the Democrats are in fact to ever win Texas they will have to do it very strategically. There are three major areas (some overlap here) they need to focus on: The I-35 corridor counties. The Houston -- San Antonio -- Austin triangle and he I-10 and south corridor areas. Mrs. Clinton actually did as well in Texas as President Obama did on his two runs. He won 28 counties in his first run and 26 in his second. Mrs. Clinton won 27.
Congressman O'Rourke won 32 counties, including Tarrant County. His success is attributable to many reasons, the national blue wave, his personal energy, his message and the broad personal dislike for Senator Cruz (even though he won).
6
No-one with the slightest modicum of integrity, honesty or morality would vote for a "Trump" Republican. Voting against Trump Republicans doesn't make you a Democrat. It just means you have at least the slightest twinge of those attributes.
21
Interesting article, but Edsall perpetuates a linguistic sloppiness when he states “college educated white women moving decisively to the left...”
I think what Edsall means is that these voters moved decisively to the Democratic Party, and he is using “left” as a shorthand for that Party.
But there are several problems with this shorthand. First, what is “left” in the US? Is everything to the left of Orrin Hatch truly “left”? The terrain has shifted so far rightward that the Democratic Party is, on some issues, to the right of Nixon’s GOP.
Second, were these voters endorsing “left” policies, and if so, what are these policies? Increasing mimnmum wage? Legalizing marijuana, reforming immigration, regulating financial institutions? Which of Beto’s policies were “left”?
Edsall’s article doesn’t convince me that these voters endorse any “leftist” positions. Rather, they seem to have moved, in revulsion, away from Trump. That doesn’t make their move “to the left”.
We need more accurate language to understand policy options. Simply calling a candidate or a Party “left” because it isn’t radically right, perpetuates fuzzy thinking.
16
@Space needle I would consider "left" to mean an adherence to Social Justice.
2
Hope abides & Sam Houston rises again...
1
The chart showing trends from past elections is telling. The swings from the last blue wave in 2006 are massive and it is hard to see the Republicans bouncing back from these swings.
5
Eight Texas Republican incumbents in the House got less than 52% of the vote. Only two lost, but Tx is just a few points away from a massive shift in their delegation. Maybe in two more years?
73
Beto won every major Texan city, probably 90% of the blacks. and most of the young, as well as the Hispanics. These demographics are increasing much faster than the rural whites, whose ambitious children are moving to the cities.
Some real Christians are rejecting the evangelicals hypocrisy too.
25
On the whole, the recent election gives me hope that America and the Constitution can actually be saved from the Orange Dictatorial Spectre. Thank god.
15
God bless Beto!
14
Looks like a Sherrod-Beto ticket in 2020. A landslide win with both Ohio and Texas going Democratic.
8
When people like Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick and AG Ken Paxton can easily get re-elected, I don't see the blue wave that Edsall sees. I'm a Texas Democrat from when I could first vote in 1968. What I saw was the Beto effect more than a political shift. I think Hispanics in general are a conservative group. If Republicans can stop shooting themselves in the foot with that voting segment, they could keep Texas red for a long time.
7
@Richard
Patrick received less than 51% of the vote, defeating an underfunded Democratic challenger by only 4% of the vote.
I pray to God Patrick is the Republican nominee for governor in 4 years.
We will be electing Governor Beto O'Rourke.
Also, take a look at other races in Texas. In the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan area, Republican appellate court Judges who dominated for decades were ALL swept out of office.
10
@ Richard
"If Republicans can stop shooting themselves in the foot with that voting segment,..."
Then, they would be Democrats. Which, quite honestly, I would take Republicans turning themselves into Democrat-lite right now.
There’s not much mention of migration from other states. To the extent that corporate headquarters or tech companies are located in Texas, there may be non Texas people moving in and bringing their blue politics with them. Whereas Florida’s aged white populations are renewed by other white old people moving in, thereby holding off demographic change, Texas may be attracting college educated younger people who have had an exposure to blue culture.
14
@Yeah
Heaven forbid. exposure to blue culture! Beto O'Rourke was a blessing for Texas and the U.S. He reminded me of Bobby Kennedy. I am hopeful that he will be the V.P. on the next Democratic Presidential ticket.
Dems have hope in the future!
7
More negative effects of Mr. Trump's divisiveness: "The perils of straight-ticket voting were on full display Tuesday in Harris County [Houston Area] ... a moderate Republican who’s arguably the county’s most respected public official, was ousted ... a caring Republican jurist and former Army officer who pioneered a court that gave countless military veterans a second chance, was defeated by Democrat ... who didn’t even appear to be running a formal campaign ... this year it wasn’t just about convenience. People were fed up. In Harris, a large urban county that leans Democratic, the frustration produced a blue wave locally. Voters said they wanted to voice their outrage about the president’s divisive policies and rhetoric by punishing any incumbent who dared run under the same banner." "Harris County Democrats rode a surge in voter turnout to a decisive victory on Tuesday, unseating several countywide Republican officials ... and sweeping all 59 judicial races." (Houston Chronicle, 7Nov2018)
16
Trump's tax plan, by burdening homeowners in California coastal cities, will drive many of them to move out of state. Texas is a top destination. Of course, they'll move to established "blue" regions in TX but the long-term demographic trend is inexorable.
7
@gpridge
If you have lived in one of California’s coastal cities, you are not moving to Texas by choice. My relatives lived in Texas. We never appreciated California more than after spending a week in the Lone Star Stane.
3
I always thought Texas would become the idea green energy place. Wind and solar in abundance. They could attract the cream of the green science and engineering folks. The world is so ready for leadership away from fossils.
The oil industry should get on the band wagon. Texans should go blue and green to help themselves.
12
@Anne
Anne, take a drive through West Texas someday. Texas is the ideal green energy state, with thousands of wind mills.
And believe it or not, some of the biggest investors are oilmen, like T Boone Pickens.
5
@Anne Good point...if the planet is going to survive, the oil industry is more or less doomed...and it may not be long before we have to find tech solutions to global warming that do not include fossil fuels...and then Texas will become something else entirely.
4
@Anne
Uh.......are you aware that Texas is already the number one state in wind energy? West Texas along I-10 is mile after mile of windmills, as is the Sweetwater area in the panhandle. We're doing well with solar, too. Not sure of our ranking there.
My all electric home is powered 100% by Texas wind. Keep them politicians talking!
4
The best thing about the election of Donald Trump is that it finally made people wake up and realize we can’t take our country, vote or democracy for granted.
When people tell me we need term limits, I disagree. We need an interested and informed electorate. We all have the power of term limits in our control every single election by voting for or against incumbents.
Pay attention and become informed by reading and listening to a variety of news outlets, not just those you agree with. Look at your congressional representative’s votes on issues and why they vote a certain way.
Then vote in every election. It’s the best way to maintain your registration and participate in your democracy.
29
@Jane K You are right on many points but... 2 x term limit is good as a mean of keeping them (mostly) honest.Imagine no term limit with Trump; you will be under a dictatorship for a long time.I understand than Texans are strong , proud and armed but a time limit is less costly than a revolution to get rid of certain " specimens "of politicians.Best
2
Thanks for the input, @Yves. I think presidential term limits are an exception due to the power of the office. But we also could have had an extra term of Obama without them.
2
I've been a Texas Democrat a very long time. Let me tell you, it ain't easy.
On Nov 6th, I do believe I detected quite a few porcine-like creatures up in the air.
45
"...the day after the election, McCarty changed her tune. According to the Tribune, she wrote to her loyalists on the Tea Party mailing list: “We are rapidly becoming outnumbered. I don’t know what tomorrow holds, but I don’t like the pattern.”
Yes. Wanna know why? Specifically, the Tea Party has nothing of real value to offer. None of your ideology, or candidates are offering solutions to problems that are NOT going away. Pulling inwards, attacking the Govt (while wanting to work and get paid by it!) as the problem, attacking non-threats as causes of next weeks Armageddon, and being basic jerks about everything and one you dont like - ain't working!
Ms.McCarthy; You're "party" is not proactive, but rather more non-active. In that you have no real solutions to increasing problems of complexity our nation faces. And you have no core principles, that can be sold that don't involve taking away scraps from those struggling the most.
You've always been outnumbered, its just that you managed to motivate a minority of voters to out-vote the majority of voters. For a short time...that is now over.
Don't let the door...you know the rest...
41
@Boregard I just do not see how anyone can call herself a part of the Tea Party when Republican Party just increased the national debt by about a factor of 2.
15
@Sniglet
It is the “Taxed Enough Already” Party, not the “Fiscally Responsible And Prudent” Party, so the ballooning debt does not concern them.
5
Only billionaires can afford to be a republican.
14
Good.
7
A note as to why Florida's entire voting pattern this cycle for statewide races looks out-of-kilter is the closeness of total votes between Texas and Florida for Senator between the states. Texas has 6-7 million more people than Florida, but Texas had 8.3 million votes for Senator and Florida 8.2 million. Yes, there could be a number of reasons for this discrepancy, but it could also be prima facia evidence of ballot stuffing in red parts of Florida where turn-out was extraordinary.
10
Like all populous states, being predictable in the electoral college and The Senate merely serves not only to under represent Texans, it also undermines our own interests. At the Federal level the Demoncrats tend to ignore us and Republicans contemptuously believe they own us (exemplified by our House district’s now ex Congressman Pete Sessions).
Texas "in play" isn’t just good for democracy, it’s good for Texan self-interest. With Texas in-play I can guarantee very interesting Federal elections.
8
Trump articulated what sounded like what people felt and so they were convinced that he and they wanted the same things. They were sure that he’d do what was in their best interests. They trusted him so much that hey dismissed his terrible statements and attitudes as noise not reflective of his mind nor his judgment.
Slowly it’s becoming clear to more and more people who have supported him unconditionally that there is no inner Trump. What you see is what there is. He controls the Republican Party because of the unconditional support of Republican voters. His talk and behavior are terrible. At some point all that support will wither because he not only is behaving badly, he delivers a poor product. It will become obvious how incompetent is his Presidency, then it will cause his support to vanish.
11
Note: The National Popular Vote bill is 64% of the way to guaranteeing the majority of Electoral College votes and the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country, by changing state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), without changing anything in the Constitution, using the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes.
It simply requires enacting states with 270 electoral votes to award their electoral votes to the winner of the most national popular votes.
All voters would be valued equally in presidential elections, no matter where they live.
Candidates, as in other elections, would allocate their time, money, polling, organizing, and ad buys roughly in proportion to the population
Every vote, everywhere, for every candidate, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election.
No more distorting, crude, and divisive and red and blue state maps of predictable outcomes, that don’t represent any minority party voters within each state.
13
@mvymvy I'm on your side, but we shouldn't hold our collective breath waiting for those other 98 votes.
2
Another factor that needs to be mentioned is population growth and decline in counties. Here in Oklahoma, the capital city used to be beet red; this year, its recent sustained growth — particularly in young college graduates and minorities — produced the first Democratic congresswoman in many election cycles. By contrast, 49 of the state’s 77 counties had a net population decline, and all of them were rural counties. This was still not enough of a shift to elect a Democratic governor (who easily outpaced the Trump-embracing Republican candidate in Oklahoma City), but the future is promising. I suspect that similar conditions prevail in Texas, where urban centers are rapidly gaining more people, while rural areas are not, or are losing people. Democrats here and inTexas tried to point out that their healthcare proposals would keep the lights on in rural hospitals that have been closing since the Republican governor refused to expand Medicaid, but so far, rural voters seem to elevate their hatred of liberals, Hillary and Obama above their own self-interest. That too will change, as they see that Republican policies are leading them over a cliff, and as older, more stubborn rural voters die off.
12
@Ockham9 I thought that the teacher's strike would have more of an impact..no one has written aboutits effect in AZ and WV, but I suspect that it happened.
4
@Sniglet I've seenseveral pieces about tge teachers'effect inWV. Google for them.
1
@Ockham9
Let's hope so. The idiots who run Oklahoma have done their best to under fund education.
Two new educators at one of my children's schools are transplants from Oklahoma. They were blunt. They aren't appreciated in Oklahoma and aren't paid well.
1
This shift from red to pink to purple to blue has just happened in Nevada, and it took the better part of the 35 years I've lived here. The demographic change, in pure and relentless numbers, is undeniable, and Trump's toxicity is finally and brutally apparent. So, from one finally woke state to our much larger state to the east: Patience, my friends.
29
@Vic Williams As Jon Ralston (or one of his writers) pointed out the other day, the shift in NV derives, in some large part, from the exodus from CA b/c of housing prices. On the one hand, you could say..."more retirees." But it is also young, educated people. My son is contemplating a move from the Bay Area to Reno to work in medicine...I think that this shift was very pronounced in Washoe County.
5
I'm a long-time Texas resident--and a Rice University graduate and noted with pride that several Rice faculty weighed in here. I live in what has been an all-GOP stronghold for years. A small group of these educated, fed-up, concerned women, including me, went to work for Beto and some local candidates. Many of us have husbands who intentionally and reasonably good-naturedly canceled out our votes at the ballot box. And, although it may not seem like much, 35% of our district voted for Beto. That's probably up from about 2% voting Democratic a few years ago. In my particular neighborhood, there were as many Beto yard signs as there were Cruz signs. Yes, times are a'changin' here in Texas.
45
@The Rev. Dr. Christy Thomas
That negation-vote math is mostly faux math. Don't let it stop you. That's long been a reason many women voted the way their husbands did,so not to negate their husbands vote. That's the only time that math works!
The more women vote for their core issues, that mean the most to them - the more they will win and the more they will turn politics to be about Human Issues, not men's issues, with women battling for the scraps...
Thank you for working for progress (Beto), not destruction and patriarchy.(Cruz)
10
@The Rev. Dr. Christy Thomas
I don’t understand what’s good natured about it. Republicans ran on racist fears and blatant lies about health insurance. Why are people voting for atrocious things painted as the ones being tolerant in this? How can one stand with a partner who would embrace and empower Trumps GOP? It’s not like picking a football team to root for. They’re hurting people.
16
@Grant I agree...I know many people who have lost touch with friends or immediate family members b/c of Trump...I don't know how you could sleep with a Republican (remember the Larry David show where the woman with whom he is about to have sex has a photo of W Bush on her nightstand...).
7
I was born in Texas in 1952 when Harry Truman was president. You can smell a change in the air here now. You can taste it in your food. You can see it in the smiles on people's faces and the laughter of little children. You can see it in voter turnout and increasing Latino & native Mexican votes. We saw it with donations big and small. You can witness all over this big state. BET2O!
42
Sorry fella, you're 10 days too late on anyone believing this one.
1
I will believe that Texas turns blue when Texas turns blue. Not a moment before. Hillary Clinton once bragged that she might be able to flip Texas. And Georgia. Oops.
For all of the talk about the eminently likable O'Rourke almost beating the detestable Cruz---he lost. The Los Angeles Rams almost beat the New Orleans Saints. The Rams still ended up with a loss.
There is a reason why many incumbents fear a primary challenge far more than they fear a general election.
Turning Texas blue is a nice thought. I bet the republicans have a similar dream about flipping California.
4
@Concernicus
Beto lost, but an amazing number of Republicans lost too. That is the point: the state is up for grabs. Look what happened in Georgia's 6th district where Democrat John Ossoff barely lost to Republican Karen Handel in 2017's special election, but in 2018 Handel has lost to Democrat Lucy McBath. All in less than two years.
Once the formerly solid rocks begin to give, the landslide starts and the mountain falls. Stay tuned in Texas.
3
perhaps some of Trump's supporters are starting to realize that once the liberating feel-good animosity of his rallies dies down, he has done nothing to really improve their lives and there is no wall, despite what he says.
IOW, maybe educated suburban women are not moving to the left, but the Republicans are just losing support as people catch onto their scam.
10
This is a stark and long-overdue warning to the racists and economic reactionaries in the Republican Party, everywhere, just because of its electoral college implications. It's too early to expect their idiocy to bring them to reality, which is the end of the electoral college. One question I didn't see Mr. Edsall explore is just exactly how deeply Trump has alienated Texas Republicans who view the Wall as an economic catastrophe for South Texas and the whole region.
10
Didn't NYT run an article a few months ago about all the Californians moving to Texas because of the lower taxes? As that continues, they won't be able to help themselves and will vote in tax and spend socialists...
1
@Brad - M"Socialism" is not "Social Justice". The GOP run on a platform of "Guns, God and racism". That works for some, mainly the Fox news people, but not for anyone under 50.
7
@Brad - M
"...will vote in tax and spend socialists..."
That's a bad thing? I prefer them to the "don't tax and spend" republicans...at least socialists take from the rich and give to the poor.
1
Yeah....I dunno about that.
I left Texas almost twenty years ago, though I still have strong ties to the state. People have been talking about how "we're going to turn Texas blue" almost as long as I've been gone. The results: No Democrats at the state-wide level, and an electorate that seemingly favors increasingly extreme, mean-spirited (and in some cases kooky) right-wing public officials.
To be sure, Trump is a drag on the GOP in many places, Texas included. At the district or municipal level, Democrats made uncharacteristically strong gains. That is certainly good news in terms of shaping policy in the long term.
But I think the Cruz v Beto race paints a perfect picture of where Texas is at the statewide level. Cruz is notoriously dislikable and off-putting. Even his fellow GOP Senators agree. He is brazenly opportunistic, loose with the truth, and is always shamelessly happy to pander to the worst in human nature. Beto, on the other hand, is the most authentic and charismatic Texas Democrat since Ann Richards. One of those once-in-a-generation politicians.
And yet, he came up short. Tribalism surely has a lot to do with it, of course. Such is the state of the USA in 2018.
I can certainly see Texas going blue in my lifetime. The demographic changes are real. But it's gonna take a while - if I had to bet, I'd wager that such a shift won't happen during Trump's term(s).
7
This is out of region, but it's part of the same problem. I've been looking at it every day since it came out, and to me it epitomizes the problem with Republicans using attack as defense:
"Miami GOP Chairman just caught leading Proud Boys in attack on Democratic campaign office
"Yesterday, Miami GOP Chairman Nelson Diaz told me he never even heard of the Proud Boys, but the hate group’s own video proves otherwise."
It came out almost four weeks ago and should have been a national scandal: https://thesternfacts.com/miami-gop-chairman-just-caught-leading-proud-boys-in-attack-on-democratic-campaign-office-319216540f79
As long as Republicans think this kind of thing is just fine, they will not qualify as either "Christian" or human. Human beings are better than this.
Lie cheat steal and deceive,
is such a small small game.
Don't you know it is wrong
(quote from a favorite song).
9
Urban Texas is being dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st Century. Like most of the country its trend is toward youth and diversity. The wide expanses of rural Texas are as reactionary as most of the deep South. But it is old and growing older, and in due time it will shrink away.
13
Plain and simple: the GOP needs to become the Latino/White party.
Maintain a culturally conservative stance while embracing "working family" tax cuts, unions and a few high profile anti-rich measures (capital gains tax, targeting CA/NY financial sectors).
If not, the warmed over bromides from Regan era fossils will lead the party to electoral oblivion in Texas and beyond
7
@Arturo
"...embracing "working family" tax cuts, unions and a few high profile anti-rich measures (capital gains tax, targeting CA/NY financial sectors)."
So, you are betting that Republicans can become Democrats before Democrats can turn Texas blue. Interesting...are you giving odds?
1
@Arturo: Laughing at the notion that any Texas Republican will ever support unions or working families or anything that buoys the non-rich. Most of them are only interested in how much they can scam for themselves through backdoor business deals, graft, and cronyism. Texans are finally starting to wake up and realize that the party does nothing for the average person, but will go to the wall to defend a few rich men's fortunes. Younger people (and I mean anyone under 65) also aren't interested in the Republicans' culture wars, identity politics, bathroom bills or their anti-choice, anti-human, anti-justice stances.
2
It's not Trump. Illegal immigration has messed-up Texas demographics to the point that Edsall may be right. Democrats and establishment types have, for decades, worked to achieve Texas' white minority status. It doesn't take a genius to figure how this will impact the vote.
1
Texans like Ms. McCarty are not unique. Their sense of righteousness and order of the world is enhanced by bombastic and egotistical misogynists like the president and Cruz. They look on in horror at the masses rising up to assert rights and benefits long held back because they believe in the Tea Party that men are not created equal, and someone has to look out for and maintain the proper structure of society. And no matter how badly she and her compatriots want to control the message with revisionist history books and creationism over science, the very instability of the leadership of their party and backward thinking of its representatives spell only doom for them. So no matter how deep is her call to, “...fight for freedom and righteousness”, Ms. McCarty is on the back side of another historic shift in the political landscape of this nation.
14
When rural Texans finally decide that they are worse off because of Trump's trade wars, the whole state will turn blue. It's just a matter of time.
15
@DSS
And yet, a recent story in the Austin newspaper that interviewed a pecan farmer found that said farmer still supported Trump. Like the soybean farmers, flat refusing to admit their error. Lost something like 65% of his export market, but still supports Trump.
SAD!
1
I’d like to share your sentiment that “when rural voters learn...” they’ll abandon the GOP, but if they didn’t learn that lesson during GWB’s reign, with six years of a GOP Congress, or in the first two years of Trump, I’m not gonna hold my breath.
I've experienced the tortured logic of liberals before but this is ridiculous.
The only way Texas goes to the liberals is with election fraud.
1
Tonight you will be visited by thress Spirits, the first of which shall be Ann Richards...
16
Trump is not that different from many GOP politicians. It is a shame that the country couldn't see the fallacy of the GOP positions prior to having the orange blob in office. Trump is simply more obvious in his bad traits. If you watch him at a press conference, which is hard to do, he has no false face. He is mentally immature and incapable of guile. In that sense he has done us a favor because he has removed the curtain that hid the reality that is the GOP. We must thank him for that.
9
I'd like Julie McCarthy to educate me as to how her President is part of her "fight for...righteousness." I mean, how many of the Ten Commandments does he have to break before he crosses the line for her?
And would Julie please tell me how what I am seeing and hearing from this train wreck of a President is not what I am seeing and hearing?
39
why would 1/3rd of latinos in Texas, where they comprise 40% of the electorate vote for cruz?
25% of their votes have to be based on ignorance
so we have to raise standards of education and health in a nonstop effort to force people to vote their own interests.
ps: I appreciate Edsall's hard work in researching his columns. He tells us a lot of what we absolutely should know -- and it's dependable.
6
@frankly 32 There is a large Latino / native Mexican voting block in Texas that votes Republican primarily because of abortion and the Catholic church's position on abortion in the U.S.
2
@frankly 32
"25% of their votes have to be based on ignorance"
It seems to me that this is a lower share than for white people. So, they're hope yet.
@Wyman Elrod
Thanks, Wyman, that explains a lot. That old catholic church which I was born into remains an anvil around our necks. Their position on abortion, btw, stems from their priority on maximizing membership. DYK, The RCC once ruled that counterpoint in music was an ex-communicable offense? I was reading yesterday how the enlightenment in Europe came about when people threw off religious prejudices to embrace scientific inquiry. We need to do that again. Latinos shouldn't be voting for a party that denigrates and scapegoats them.
2
Dallas Morning News recently reported on the fear of californication of Texas. People from expensive CA are pouring in to cheaper TX and they are turning the state blue. Same thing is happening to the South as people from North East move down looking for cheaper place to live. Jobs are plentiful both in Texas and the South.
This tells me, the key to Democratic success will be the economic development of the red states. That not only gets the welfare states off the subsidy, it also naturally facilitates the "Democratic relocation program", thus neutralizing Republican electoral college disadvantage.
6
@TK Sung The DMN also reported that more native Texans (folks born and raised here) voted for Beto over Cruz. The article stated that Cruz's narrow victory was driven by transplants to Texas.
1
@TK Sung In the short run, I agree, although I doubt we will move to Texas when we leave CA. In the longer run, it looks like the south and southeast will become warmer and the southwest also drier. New England and the upper Midwest look good. Maybe reverse migration at some point.
I think it’s clear that the Republicans will lose massively in the next election if their candidate is Trump. He put himself on the ballot this time and despite a very favorable electoral landscape that will not be repeated look what happened. Let’s not kid ourselves, in some places Democrats won with ideas and policies but in a lot of other places Republicans lost because of Trump. If I can see this I guarantee you the Republican leadership can and I’d wager good money that somewhere in a darkened room right now they are quietly scheming to dump Trump. Politicians are good at reading, particularly the writing on the wall.
So how to do this without losing the Trump base? Well that’s a well travelled path- blame the Democrats. But how? Well there’s an obvious play that I’m sure they’ll see- the Muller probe. Rather than trying to quash the probe, when they were the majority, Republicans now in the minority have every incentive to encourage it and tie it as closely as possible to the Democrats. This is such an obvious trap, Democrats can be almost guaranteed to walk into it. Please guys be careful what you wish for; this is a game of chess not checkers.
6
As a twenty year resident of Tarrant County who moved there for a job and who has since relocated in retirement, I believe one factor often overlooked in explanations for the gradual though inexorable hue change in Texas politics is the extensive influx of college educated professionals. A full majority in my neighbors had relocated from another state. This phenomenon must certainly now be true, as well, for many other communities in the DFW metroplex. And while new Texans, no doubt, arrive with a wide variety of political views, it’s their very heterogeneity that is contributing to the change in Texas politics.
39
@Trey CupaJoe Sounds just like Georgia and North Carolina and Virginia too.
6
These mid terms showed that a positive Progressive message can win anywhere if, IF the candidate is offered the opportunity to explain and promote said ideas to the masses.
If it devolves into a metaphorical political knife fight, then republicans generally hold sway with their sound bites and fear. That is changing rapidly, along with demographics.
There is only so far that people will vote out of tribe, if they are going to lose their way of life, their employment, their house, and then finally their health. (without preventative health care)
Also, there are only so much taxes that you can cut, before everything around you becomes insolvent, and you have to (out of necessity) reverse course and raise taxes to pay for things. (Kansas proved this spectacularly)
Progressive candidates that ignore the noise, and go out and visit the people. listen to them and then offer a way out, are winning. - anywhere.
It does not matter anymore how red the district is. Progressive candidates can do it. America overall is turning blue and Progressive.
The country is finally following up on its promises made by its founders that life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness is for all, no matter who you are.
All you have to do is get up off your duffs and vote.
13
I have long believed that Texas will flip from red to blue. It's just a matter of time and patience. I have spent my entire life in this state, and have seen major changes in the demographics, that cannot be denied. Cities like Houston, Austin, and Dallas are becoming more diverse, and have been electing Democratic mayors for many years now. The older more "conservative" generation is dying off, and some are even evolving. My own father, who listened to Rush Limbaugh for 20 years, driving to work in Houston traffic, has become disenfranchised with the Republican party and switched to the Democratic party. He is not the only one. Many other people I know feel the same way. The DNC needs to work to flip Texas in 2020, and then they wouldn't have to worry about some of the smaller swing states.
31
@spacecitygirl Indeed, with Texas in play, there are far more possible paths to 270 (the required majority in the electoral college).
4
As a psychologist who has read some of the research on how people actually vote, I am not optimistic about Texas or any other southern "red" state changing color. People tend to pick their party and then vote that way in spite of their real interests or what the party is doing. It takes something major to alter the party effect. The last two major realignments occurred with the 1929 crash and Great Depression that turned the whole country Democratic and Democratic endorsements of civil rights that turned the South Republican after 1964. The Trump debacle may change which Republican people in Texas vote for, but likely it will still be a Republican. I would love to be wrong.
4
@rawebb1 you are missing a very important piece of the puzzle. Hordes of people are moving from California and the Northeast into Texas and the rest of the South. Even if your thesis is correct, and I doubt it is so with many young people, the demographic balance is changing with these migrants.
3
Texans believe in free and open markets. Trump dragged the country into a trade war.
Texans believe in financial prudence. Trump ran up the budget deficit to record highs.
Texans love the U.S. military. Trump used the Army for political theater on the southern border.
I don’t know if Texas will lean one way or the other. A lot of Texas Republicans look at Trump and they do not see themselves, however.
13
Contrary to the identity politics crowd, this well written and detailed article shows why it has to be all in. Everyone in the suburbs of the Texas cities must be considered as a potential voter for the Democrats up or down ballot. These advances in the legislature were made with mostly white women and educated white men and Latinos.
When more than one-third of Texas Latinos vote GOP (37 percent) and African-Americans statewide are a small 12 percent, you can't win without appealing to a broad coalition. It is not rocket science to say the push must be in those rings of voters around the city cores of Dallas, Fort Worth and Houston. Austin already votes Democrat.
A corollary to that point is the nomination of candidates who are "horses for courses". Being fashionably hard left and stirring the hearts of activists may give you traction with the media and the coastal elites. However it does not help you win over old line suburban Repubs turned off big-time by Trump. We need at least some of their votes.
4
Reminiscing: Texas is the land that produced LBJ, Loyd Bentsen, Ann Richards, Jim Hightower, and may other progressives. I grew up there, and my region was a beautiful land of meadows, creeks, farmlands and forests. When Bush was elected governor, I got out. I go back to visit frequently, but I don't even know the place any more. Those meadows and farmlands are paved over, the creeks polluted.
There is too much privatization, too much concrete, too much corporate influence, and way too many SUVs on the road. I am pleased to hear Trump's popularity there is waning, but know that Texas in general is way invested in the red path.
10
@Branch Curry
Texas has the least amount of public lands based on population, to say nothing of size.
I believe that Texas will most definitely eventually turn blue. The crazy Texas administration (i.e. Abbott and Patrick) love to brag about how business-friendly Texas is. They are correct about that because it is...tax breaks for businesses, etc. however these businesses are also working against their crazy ideals because they attract diverse talent (although recently Amazon turned down offers in Texas due to the anti-LGBT rhetoric of the state, among other things). Anyhow, diverse talent tends to bring those that will help to turn the state blue. Yet, I still suspect that these good ol' boys won't know when to stop when it comes to public restroom usage, etc...something they are FAR too vested in if you ask my opinion.
6
Beto stands tall on almost all domestic issues, however, his eager jump into the Russia demonophobia plays into the Cold War rhetoric now being ramped up by some major Democratic political figures.
Lets wait for the results of the Mueller investigation before going full LBJ in the 21st century with our foreign policy.
.
4
O'Rourke lost against a man literally nobody seems to like and who could probably not get elected anywhere but Texas. It seems quite probable that any Republican a little more likable than Cruz will again win the state comfortably.
4
Out of the Dem field, I think Klobuchar, Castro and Inslee have the best chance of carrying Texas. Especially Klobuchar. A Klobuchar/Beto ticket could probably win it...
9
Electoral map shows that Democrats are the party of urban cities, Republican of rural country side.
The core of the shift is demographics: Texas's urban population is growing , the rural population is not.
Secondary : In the 2010 census, 38.2% of Texas's population was Hispanic. It is increasing rapidely
"Hispanic Texans on pace to become largest population group in state by 2022
Texas' Hispanic population increased from 9.7 million in 2010 to 11.1 million last year, according to new census population estimates. Meanwhile, the state's white population has increased by about 458,000 people."
As any ethnic group, they tend to vote identity - that saved Ted Cruz
18
@Talesofgenji Ted Cruz won not because Latinos voted their identity. Many Latinos, like other immigrant voters, tend to vote conservative. They are usually religious, favor low tax policies as many are entrepreneurial & don't favor illegal immigration. They also tend to reject the liberal "victim" ideology.
5
@Talesofgenji But the data show that Hispanics voted for O'Rourke, who dominated the Hispanic heavy parts of the state, not Cruz. O'Rourke's forbears came to the U.S. from Ireland, but that was generations ago. The family has lived in El Paso, otherwise known as North Juarez, for decades, and O'Rourke grew up in that culture. I imagine he spent as much of his youth in Juarez as in Texas, just as most border residents but especially Hispanics, have and do today. His nickname was his from preschool days.
Cruz on the other hand was born in Canada, his father was a Cuban, not Mexican, immigrant, his mother was Anglo-American, and he attended lily white evangelical schools prior to college, when he went Ivy League.
O'Rourke speaks both flawless Spanish and the native lingo, Tex-Mex. Cruz doesn't speak either.
Texas Hispanics who voted their ethnicity voted O'Rourke.
5
Voter turnout in this mid-term election was much higher than four years ago and this was a result of the O'Rourke candidacy. I examined each of the Congressional races and almost all the Republicans who retained their seats saw their victory margins narrowed. For some it was significant going from double to single digits.
O'Rourke would be wise to run against Senator Cornyn in two years as he has a chance of winning the seat.
20
@A Goldhammer
Senator Cornyn has respect that Cruz can only dream of. Beto is proud that he and the Senator have reached across the aisle and worked together sometimes.
Beto would be foolish to try to win that seat with all the seniority Senator Crnyn offers Texans.
Trump is indeed a danger to anyone who calls themselves a Republican. Stop and think for a moment and you can not help but find the many months of incessant campaigning by Trump troubling. Donald Trump has made sure there is no longer a continuum in American politics. Instead he has made the 2020 election a very obvious fork in the road. The Republican Party have clearly decided that they are just fine with the bigotry, race baiting, and illegal behavior of Donald Trump. No longer can the Republican Party truthfully assert they support the ideals of equality and fair elections. Any fair minded voter including Republicans and Independents listening to the race baiting vitriol used by Trump to stoke fear and racial hatred will vote for an alternative. As 2020 approaches this will become increasingly obvious. Republicans will not be believed when they speak about justice, equality, the rule of law, and health care they will not be believed. The evidence is already in. Just look at a video of a Trump rally as "Trump fans" chant "lock her up" or "CNN sucks", look at the person he appointed "acting" AG, Almost the entire Republican party has been infected by the hatred, demagoguery and plain nastiness of Donald Trump, and voters have noticed.
20
@Victor Parker You need to calm down.
3
Texas has the same problem many southern states do: High taxes and obsessed cultural Marxist stomping drive citizens to states where they can afford to live, especially in retirement--e.g., California v. Arizona, New York v. North Carolina. In fact, there are some in places like Montana and Idaho who won't sell property if they discover the buyers are from places like Seattle, Portland, and San Francisco.
Unfortunately, they don't get it and bring their politics with them. Soon Texas will be trashed just like Arizona and North Carolina.
But the money, ready cash from places like New York and California, is hard to turn down.
1
Yes, as long as "covfefe" is in office, sane voters can win.
But as long as "covfefe" is in office, "covfefe" is in office. No good result from it justifies that, and any such comes from instinctive universal desperation to claw back from the existential climate, diplomatic, and human-rights crises he foists on us. He still has The Football, Executive Order, and Signing Statement, as Dubya and actual President Obama both reminded us to great effect.
He CAN be used, but he SHOULD be impeached and chucked. Not that the stolen Senate or Court will allow it...
Blue Texas. Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished.
2
Sunday morning after the Saturday night 'Pulse' shooting, Texas Lt Gov Dan Patrick messaged:
"Ye reap what ye sow."
Patrick is truly representative of a state that deliberately executes prisoners who's guilt is uncertain (Cameron Todd Willingham) drags black men to death behind their beloved pickup trucks (James Byrd, Jr) and who's parents are behind in their child support payments by $11 BILLION.
Next time they want to secede, let them go.
8
The success of liberal minded women, beyond its patent effect, also will have the latent effect of making the way for all women to break away from the male conservative rules that said women were forced to abide by to have a political career. The progress is feeding on itself as we speak! The conservative males will produce a short-lived backlash, but its over for them.
Progress is being made!
2
Your graphs are lovely.
Your power of analysis is great.
But the fact is ugerly.
Beto went down to defeat.
Politics is all about winning.
This may be, at best, a beginning.
But Texas is
And always has been
Where the crazies do biz.
5
I suggest that college educated white women have not so much moved decisively to the left as they have moved away from President Trump and his non-stop river of bile, as has this college educated white man.
7
These results are the best the Dems will see. In Cruz the voters had a truly repulsive option, outreaching even Trump himself. He won. In 2020 the Republicans will offer better choice.
2
This sounds a lot more like "Texans do not like Trump" than "Texas is now blue or deep purple". The "Trump is just a typical Republican" story line never made much sense even if it is convenient for analyzing apparent trends. Some of the damage may outlast Trump, but it is hard to conclude that now.
20
@Alan
I believe my home state started its red period with the Civil Rights Acts LBJ decided we’re the right thing to do.
I grew up in a mostly Democratic Texas, when if you wanted to win local political office, you had to be a Democrat. The reverse has been true for a while. It will be truly interesting to see what happens.
A fair number of Texans I know like DT just fine, and what that means might speak back to the reasons the state became red in the first place. Not a pretty picture.
7
@Alan, sure, DT is a big negative for Texas Dems just as he is country-wide. But the changing demographics will turn Texas blue faster than in most states.
9
@Alan
That's exactly what the analysis said. Texans don't like Trump. So long as the Republican party is orthodox to Trump, Texas is shifting blue. Straus' closing statement made this reality explicit. Republican party one way. Texas another way.
Are these trends reversible? Certainly. Not by 2020 though. Probably not by 2024 either. If Democrats can sneak a state majority before the census, the entire Texas map is reinvented for a decade at least. You'll have Trump to thank.
Trump supporters will get tired of "winning." That's how politics works. Nothing lasts forever.
8
Led by Trump, they’ve crossed their Rubicon, or their Rio Grande. There’s no going back. If Beto can get THIS close in Texas, he absolutely should run in 2020. NOT for Senator, but for Vice President. Let’s the usual suspects fight it out for the TOP spot. A Woman, younger than 65, a real Democrat .
Let the games commence.
6
Beto is inspirational and the demographics in Texas as well as the rest of the country are changing and will accelerate as each year goes by. It is the continuation of the blue wave that scares the Trump base.
The problems I see are the ones we are facing right now. On a daily basis Trump is undermining the rule of law, the media, the DOJ and the FBI. He is currently using our military in a questionable way at the Texas boarder and berating and alienating our allies. He is eroding our environment.
Unless he is forced to resign there is plenty of time for for him to continue to do much damage to our democracy, our environment, our standing with foreign leaders and our constitution.
Trump is corrupt and dangerous.
6
Educated white women, who would be attracted to a conservative political party, are repulsed by a white nationalist one.
That's bad news for the Republican party, as it has transitioned from being a conservative party to a white nationalist one.
It's kind of sad that so many less-educated whites, and educated white men, are so supportive of white nationalist politics.
4
A major factor will be the religious affiliations of the growing Latino population in Texas. If Catholic, they will tend to vote Democrat. If Fundamentalist, they will help to put evolution- and climate-change deniers like Rick Perry into elected office.
1
@WmC
Update on Catholics. The abortion issue converted them to red voters.
Update on Hispanic evangelicos, their numbers are growing rapidly.
Handy religious labels largely will not translate into predictors of future votes.
1
I'm a former Republican who despises the Tea Party. With their fiscal irresponsibility, religious right, anti sex, abstinence only ideology, they certainly do not represent me, a center right conservative. I'm hoping Montana can get rid of Tea Party influence too and come back to common sense conservatism, something the Tea Party lacks.
11
@JMWB
I met a public school teacher from your state. The kids in her rural area come to school hungry. She asks me--how am I supposed to teach hungry kids fractions?
You reject the Tea Party, so that makes you, a "former Republican," someone this liberal Democrat could have a conversation with. I'd like to know what your "common sense conservatism" is, as most conservatives I hear about don't want to pay any taxes for anything except the military so we can stand ready to annihilate humanity if necessary.
I struggle to understand what's happening in this country. My little liberal town just voted 'yes' on a ballot initiative to build a new high school to the tune of 300M dollars. Our local taxes will increase by 1-3K a year for the next decade and a half. It passed by a very wide margin.
And, I promise you, nobody is going to school hungry and everybody graduates HS. We compete extremely well on international PISA tests.
I once held the naive view that we Americans are mostly in agreement on what "promoting the general welfare" of this nation should be, but conservatives prefer not to take on too much debt to pay for whatever it is.
That's changed. I don't have a clue what "conservatism" is anymore. I do know liberals really like their kids to get world-class educations and we're happy to pay taxes to do it. Conservatives? No taxes, and you need a birth certificate to get into the bathroom. Makes no sense.
You live in a beautiful state. Good luck.
4
I always enjoy your essays, Mr. Edsall and, especially, the graphics that illustrate your thesis. I am troubled, however, by Julie McCarty’s fierce denunciation of collaboration and compromise that closes your item today.
She refuses to engage in a dialogue with her political (ideological?) opposites and remains firmly recalcitrant and obstructionist. The basic idea of politics is consensus. I cannot but think that Ms. McCarty’s views predated the election of Donald Trump, who has only exacerbated the rancor and ill will of hard-right ideologues who would deliver us to their weird, un-Democratic notion of a white “Christian” nation, oblivious to both Constitutional principles and to common governing sense.
Beto O’Rourke’s the face of a new Texas. He’s positive instead of the Ted Cruz-Trump-McCarty dynamic. Your Mr. Strauss has it correctly, I think, condemning Trump’s and Cruz’s “borderline racism,” a particularly red meat staple of Texas’s non-inclusive menu.
If people—millennials and Latinos who see through the Republicans’ historical and deliberate exclusion of them from state policy-making, their 35% in favor of Cruz vs. O’Rourke (which continues to astonish me—why would Hispanics vote for a man who would keep his—and Trump’s heel—on their necks?) might drop into single digits.
But racism remains the albatross draped around the neck of this state, red only because of (Texan) LBJ’s Voting and Civil Rights Acts. It’s still stuck in ante-bellum America.
Long way to go.
62
My bet would be that the 35% is staunchly anti abortion/pro lfe and doing what their priests want them to.
6
Even in losing, O'Rourke accomplished two important things for Texas Democrats:
First, his campaign generated excitement and voter participation that won large numbers of races for Democrats - in the state legislature, county offices (which are more important in Texas than in most states), and Congress. That deepens the Democratic bench for future state-wide elections.
Second, he proved that it's no longer beyond the realm of possibility for a Democrat to win in Texas. In the past, good Democratic candidates passed up state-wide races in Texas as futile, but in the future, Democrats now sitting on that newly deepened bench are more likely to be interested.
By the way, Stacey Abrams did the same for Georgia. Democrats there picked up a U.S. House seat and made important gains in both houses of the state legislature. It hasn't been much noted, but the critical secretary of state position vacated by Abrams's opponent, Brian Kemp, is going to a run-off. If Democrats can pull that one off, they can reverse the draconian voter suppression measures that certainly accounted for Kemp's margin over Abrams.
politicsbyeccehomo.wordpress.com
7
Make no mistake, if Trump won't or can't change his spots between now and 2020, and if O'Rourke continues to blanket the state with his signature brand of appealing to voters, Texas's 38 Electoral College votes will be as blue as the skies over the Lone Star State in August. And that's if Beto is not on the ballot opposing Trump.
4
I live in one of the small TX counties that went ~80% for Cruz. The amazing news is that Beto got ~20% of my neighbors. Pundits are quick to point out the bluing of the large counties, but they should look at the inroads Beto made in small counties. I actually had a Democratic block walker come to my house the first time in more than 25 years. Cruz only held on because of the rural votes. Turnout was up in my county, but not by much. Young and Hispanic voters are ripe for the picking. I want this election year to be a template for the future: practical progressive values that resonate with the New Democratic voters of TX.
34
Having lived in New Hampshire from the mid-80s to 2016, I can tell you that what is happening in Texas is very similar. NH always voted Republican. It was the yin to the Massachusetts yang. But the 80s and 90s saw an influx of new younger people moving to the state increasing the population of many cities. Nashua, where I lived, went from from 25,000 people to 90,000.
Slowly but surely, the state moved toward Blue. It is still borderline purple, but the well-educated professionals who live across the southern more urban part of the state now outnumber those in the rural, upper two-thirds.
Texas is on the same path. It is just larger so the transition has been slower. It may not happen in 2020, but it will happen.
And it's also happening in New Mexico, Arizona and Colorado.
7
@Trg - NH had the good sense to reject Donald Trump.
3
@ChristopherM Indeed. I'm not certain it would have 20 years ago.
Beto was asked in a debate with Cruz what about Russian meddling the election. Beto responded in a hoop jumping sort of perfunctorily manner. Cruz talked of the danger of closing free speech on Google. With Trump the Republicans are left with ignorant corrupt self serving bombast from their leader. The Democrats have an open field to appeal to issues like access to health care which Beto focused on. Since Texas is the worst state in the country for providing its citizens health care. Cruz was against the gov't having an important role in making people's lives better. Nationalism is the sure bastion for Republicans. Globalism is an idea that should work well for Texas' highly competitive businesses. But Trump wants to unilaterally take his power as president to foment tension with his needless thoughtless trade decisions.
4
I sure hope Mr. Edsall's possibility will turn into reality. It's mind boggling how far Republicans have been able to take their electorate to the right without losing many of them. I suspect the booming economy accounts for a lot of it, the true Darwinian nature of the GOP will be a more off-putting factor when the pie shrinks. The undemocratic Senate, its ability to block House legislation and its role in appointing Judges is becoming a big problem for Democrats as ever more companies and people flock to the cities.
6
Looking at 2020, I genuinely see Beto as the best hope of a Democratic victory. He seems uniquely able to capture a wide spectrum of constituents that are critical for a Democratic victory - hard-left Bernie-style voters, women, centrist suburban voters, Hispanics (he is fluent in Spanish and campaigns as such) - without the baggage of a Biden, Warren, or Sanders. He is charismatic as can be and can raise money like there's no tomorrow.
A loss is a loss, but a liberal losing Texas to a famous incumbent by 2.6% is hugely impressive. While I cannot possibly see the allure of Ted Cruz, he remains more popular in Texas than Donald Trump. Is that alone enough to get 2.6% of the voters to defect? And even if not, there are a lot of Trump states a lot less red than Texas - if Beto can't flip his home state he has great odds elsewhere in red America.
19
@Solaris I've met Beto and I like him, but I don't think he's ready to be a presidential candidate. Now, if someone like Biden picked Beto as a running mate, that's a whole different thing. I think he'd be a fantastic veep choice, particularly for an older presidential candidate. Biden/Beto 2020 has a nice ring.
21
@Solaris
There is nothing more toxic in politics than losing.
Unfortunately, that's all that counts for Beto: If he were the Second Coming of the Messiah, he is still dead in the water of real politics if he loses to Cruz, which he did.
1
@Claudia
Not always--see Nixon.
I pray Beto runs again for the senate in Texas in 2020.
That, in itself, could swing Texas blue, particularly in a Presidential election year when turnout is substantially higher.
61
@Sparky
Beto would be foolish for a number of reasons to take on the senior senator from Texas. Cornyn is popular, not as radical as Cruz, and Beto brags about working with him across the aisle.
The biggest electoral issue in Texas is the growing divide between rural (red) and urban/suburban (blue) voters. The cities and suburbs are more diverse, more secular and less tolerant of the racist and patriarchal tones coming from the Republican party. Moreover, the rural areas are losing population while the cities are growing like gangbusters. It may not happen in 2020 but Texas will eventually become a blue state.
22
One impact of the political trends discussed in Edsall's column relates to the policies of the state government. The election significantly narrowed the size of the Republican majority in both houses of the legislature, which will force the GOP to compromise with Democrats over the extremely conservative agenda the former has pursued for decades, with respect to education and the social safety net. (Texas refused to expand Medicaid under the ACA.)
It remains unclear how meaningful these comprises will be, but I feel sure the desire for a less rightwing approach to governing helps explain the urban shift away from support for the Republicans. People living in cities have a much greater sense of the urgency of adequate government services than do their counterparts in the rural areas.
It would be wonderful if, at the end of my life, I got to live in a state whose elected officials focused more on the needs of their average constituents than on those of the business community.
23
This indulges in straight line projection. That is common, but commonly false.
More often we see either alternative, takeoff in the new direction, accelerating, or we see that the change is capped off as it uses up the potential of what led to the change.
We need more information to project a future pattern.
2
Dear Beto,
Please, please, please run again in 2020. There will be more Latino/a young people eligible to vote. It will be a presidential year, and I promise there will be more people who want to send both Trump and the lying thieving Republicans back to private life.
Peace,
We the People of the United States
48
What appears to be happening in Texas can and ought to start occurring in other red states: an honest look at what Trump is saying and doing. I'm happy to read that a member of the GOP considers Trump's rhetoric to be divisive and borderline racist. I'm even happier to read that this same individual recognizes that Trump is lying. My question is how many others, GOP members or not, voted for Trump or not, recognize what he's creating with the help of McConnell and the rest of the clown car crew.
Governing a country or a state does not and should not be a partisan exercise. Trump and the GOP (especially the GOP in the past), are the best example of how not to run any country unless you want to create divisions guaranteed to hurt the average citizen. They are catering to the worst in people in hopes of staying in power. I hope they lose and are relegated to some dark corner of the dungeon where they belong.
We deserve better than this from our elected officials. They are supposed to serve all of us no matter what our skin color is, what religion we follow or not, how much we earn or not, and whether or not we voted for them. I have found that I cannot take any pride in having the GOP in power. There is nothing to praise them for and for that I am sorry for us.
17
Still amazed anyone could vote for Ted Cruz. Even watching him on TV for a minute, I feel like I need to a shower to wash off the slime.
120
@Tim: I know exactly what you mean. The fact that the selfish, egoistical, shallow, insular, and greed-driven Cruz beat a fantastic candidate like O'Rourke tells me that there is a contingent of Republican voters whose knee-jerk reaction is to vote for anyone - no matter how terrible a person - with an R after his or her name. A sorry state of affairs that the rest of us are working hard to alter.
8
I am a progressive centrist and am heartened by these developments. We live in a centrist country and we have worked 200 years to get along.
Trying to impose your views on anyone much less the naked meanness and anger brings nothing good nothing positive. Kudos to Beto,he just has demonstrated how people react to a positive uplifting message. ( see Reagan Ronald Reagan Tea partyers )
Trump and the GOP will double down on the naked hatred- it’s all they seem to know. For example we all should realize by now that women’s issues are society’s issues. And women are mad as hell, As trump and his very ill informed bubble dwellers will come to realize, too late. As they double down their political losses will mount exponentially.
We as a country don’t just have trump fatigue,we have fatigue of the negativity and nastiness that has run the Republitrump party since 1968. Enough
There’s a bright future for America and it’s spelled Democrat.
3
@AdamStoler -- "We live in a centrist country"
That is a truism that begs the question. Center is defined as the middle of the voters. The middle moves around, but we remain by definition centered on our middle.
Polling on issues shows the center has been moving left on the big questions, like health care.
4
I'm so tired of these endless prognostications. Mainstream media and pollsters were all woefully wrong in 2016 because they never venture beyond the confines of DC or New York or Los Angeles and therefore have no idea what is actually going on in the country at large. Don't get me wrong: I believe that the monstrosity occupying the White House has already done so much damage that we have lost at least 50 years of progress. There is no regulation that has not been rolled back or repealed: business, environmental, social. But he has demonstrated beyond question his driving need to be the center of the universe and I would put no act beyond him to ensure a second term. Surely there is some small country somewhere that he can start a war with to whip up fears of terrorism and/or "invasion" by hordes of migrants just in time to get re-elected.
29
@Exiled in St. Louis The pollsters were not woefully wrong in 2016. They were right on the money. Hillary won by more than 3 million votes. That margin was well within the margin of error. Trump is president because he squeaked out wins in three states.
17
@Trg Obama won Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Florida in 2008 and 2012.
Hillary didn't win any of those states in 2016.
That's a lot more than three states.
6
@RBC Agreed. HIllary was a way worse candidate than Obama. But that's not what I'm saying. "Exiled" says the pollsters were wonefully off. They weren't. Pollsters never said she was lock in Ohio, Florida and polls showed Iowa was going for Trump. They weren't as far off as claimed.
9
The question EVERY Democratic presidential primary voter should ask in 2020 is:
"Yes, but can he or she win Texas?"
4
The census data the author references shows that non-hispanic white Texans make up 42 percent of the Texas population while Hispanics make up 39.4 percent of the population, but the Pew Research Center estimated in 2014 that illegal immigrants—who cannot vote—make up 6.1 percent of the state’s population. Virtually 100 percent of Texas’s illegal immigrants are Hispanics. So Hispanics who can vote will or will one day be old enough to vote make up about 33.3 percent of the population, not 39.4 percent. Eligible Hispanic voters probably won’t outnumber eligible non-Hispanic voters until after the 2020 elections.
Since almost all Hispanic Texans are white, Texans don’t refer to "whites" and "Hispanics." They refer to “Anglos” and “Hispanics.” The Anglo adjective applies to all white Texans whose ancestors did not speak Spanish. For example, Beto O’Rourke is referred as an Anglo even though he is an Irish American. Intermarriage between Anglo and Hispanic Texans is so common that making a distinction between the two groups is becoming absurd.
2
An appealing and interesting article title- but it ends there. Thomas thinks and believes that the Texas politics happens like Face Book sells personal data. It does not.
1
Trump supporters are like a cult. They believe that he and only he can save them. They have legitimate concerns and problems that they do not see anybody else having addressed. However, their con-man cult leader is all words and will not help them either. Like with all other cults there will be individuals who leave but not a big dis abandonment of the cult. The problem is that in order to leave the cult and the lies - the member has to accept that they were fooled (are fools) and that there are no hope for having their issues taken serious and solved. That is a huge step that will only come slowly to the cult followers as Trump continues to not deliver in spite of his big words and apparent (to the followers) successes.
4
This article captures the experiences I had, working to elect Democrats and flip seats in Texas. Some of the most tone deaf and arrogant “representatives” were swept out of office by candidates who took their message to the people of the districts they were running in. And they did it by talking to everyone, in a collaborative and productive manner. And there were more reasonable people then there were single issue voters who could be manipulated by verbal bomb throwers. As it turns out, constituents don’t like being called, stupid, or communist, or anti American because they want some progress on health care access, or more spending on public schools, or they support vaccinations or they are concerned about the environment, or they don’t care which bathroom people use. We wanted representatives who were going to use their time in office productively. We sent many of the unproductive people home, and we did it with bipartisan support.
210
"We had 8.3 million voters in 2018 (up from just 4.7 million in 2014)"
This is the most important change in the 2018 mid terms in Texas, people actually voted. In 2014, Texas had the sad distinction of the lowest turnout (23.8% of voting age) of all of the states.
Increased turnout means that older and on the average more conservative voters do not dominate the process. Every age group under 60 leans Democratic.
Let's hope this trend continues. Thank you, Mr Trump, for inspiring Americans to vote... against your divisive vision for America.
47
A Texas Tea Party stalwart states, "I am called to fight for freedom and righteousness, and that is all I know to do."
Perhaps that sentiment has something to do with the decline of the Republican influence in the state. Suggesting that her party's candidates and policies are the righteous ones necessary to the preservation of freedom pretty much says it all about what Republicans think of those outside of it.
10
This analysis is interesting. However, two years is a long time and if the Republicans do no more damage in the Congress (a big if) it is still a possibility that they could hold onto power in Texas.
Trump is definitely beatable and I am sure that both Jeff Flake and Bob Corker will be throwing their hats into the ring, along with John Kasich. If that is the case, then there will be a chance that one of these three will end up as the Candidate.
That said, if the Democrats have strong Primary Presidential Candidates and the right one ends up being the Candidate, I think not only will the Republicans be toast in Texas but through out the Country.
It really depends on what the Democrats accomplish in the next two years in Congress. And what ends up being the conclusions in the Mueller investigation.
Anything can happen in the next two years and it probably will.
3
@Jean If Trump survives Mueller, which is likely if it depends on 2/3 of the Senate finding him guilty of high crimes or misdemeanors, the centrist R's you mentioned will have a hard time primarying him. The intense base will be out in force at the primaries. I am just amazed that for years of grousing about declining voter turnout all of sudden people are showing up. I can only hope it leads to an increased citizen participation throughout the population.
3
While I agree with others that this is an excellent column on the state of Texas elections, it left out an item or two.
For one thing, to my surprise, the Texas Legislature did away with the "Straight Party Voting". This was the last year that someone could go into the voting booth and select "Republican" and every Republican received a vote!
Voters will henceforth have to address each and every person running for office---and that will negatively impact elderly Texans who like to brag "I just go in, pull the Straight Vote lever, and go out! It only takes a second."
The other item I want to mention is that the tea party has peaked and is no longer relevant. Right now, their pressing issue is to attempt to remove a well-respected Surgeon from the post of Vice-Chairman of the Texas Republican Party simply because the man is a Muslim.
That level of insanity is being noticed by everyone here.
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I don't see Texas turning blue anytime soon.
If they could at least find someone less repulsive than Ted Cruz to represent them in the Senate, that would be an encouraging turn.
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Julie McCarty, the Tea Party stalwart in North Texas, wrote her supporters:
"I am called to fight for freedom and righteousness......"
Anyone who states "I am called to....." loses me immediately. American politics and governing must not be a religious endeavor - and that's one thing that's wrong with the GOP.
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@Mim
Whatever happened to "separation of Church and State"
????????
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"The Democrats are the party of government activism, the party that says government can make you richer, smarter, taller, and get the chickweed out of your lawn. Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work, and then get elected and prove it." —P.J.
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@Jim Actually Jim the Democrats are the ones who promise to give you free stuff if you'll only vote for their candidate. Then when they get elected (basically due to that lie and human greed) they lower the standard for the working class Americans because there's no such thing as "Free stuff". What the democrats were really saying is vote for our candidate and we'll give you money from the USA citizen's taxes that you've not paid into and don't deserve.
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@Dixon Duval And meanwhile, the Republicans grow the welfare for the wealthy and big corporations with their tax cut giveaways. We've got a soaring budget deficit because of it. Talk about "free stuff" and fiscal irresponsibility!
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@Dixon Duval As opposed to the Republicans who give free money to the wealthy and corporations. A party that reverses regulations, thereby allowing environmental degradation that enhances corporate profits, but passes on the costs of cleanup and health ramifications to taxpayers and consumers.
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For all of these Republicans who want to be mini-me trumps: its not going to work. You are not trump and you don't have the con man charm. You can't pull it off. You just appear nasty and stupid. People do not want to vote for you.
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The current administration is appalling. The word straightjacket(s) comes to mind.
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Beto O'Rourke is no Quanah Parker nor Sam Rayburn nor Lyndon Johnson nor John Connally nor Santa Ana nor Vicente Guerrero nor David Crockett nor Sam Houston. Nor is Rafael Edward Cruz. Texas is full of cow patties.
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The rural Republicans have plundered the city tax payers for years. After seeing our property taxes rise to ridiculous levels and having large portions of those taxes sucked out of our school districts, it is no surprise to see the cities express severe dissatisfaction with the Republican Party in our state. Add in a fool in the White House, and it is no surprise to see the tide turning in Texas.
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@Ben P I’m a rural Dem that’s sent nearly half my property taxes to big city schools because they don’t have my oil wells. If you want a fairer tax plan then support an income tax and dispose of the regressive property taxes.
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This is exactly why Democrats should select Beto for the top of their ticket in 2020. He'll carry Texas and any place that's purple or better. A no-brainer.
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Mr. Edsall, have you ever actually visited Texas? Beto lost to Ted Cruz!
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@David I live in TX, and Beto scared the pants off the TX GOP. Beto should run in 2020, again for the Senate. Cornyn is more vulnerable than anyone understands. The Trumpets aren’t fond of him. If Beto can duplicate his fund raising miracle again, the GOP will be on defense all around the nation
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So Beto should definitely run for Cornin’s seat in 2020. One less Dem prez candidate.
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Beto didn’t take PAC money. Many believed that with Trump’s wealth, he could not be co-opted by special interests. In short, many voters are suspicious of corporate and PAC money. Culbertson was beat in Texas and the campaign ads against emphasized the contributions he got from pharamaceutical companies. Citizen United can be beat by small donors. Lots of them. If all the states had laws exposing PAC contributors, Anthony Kennedy's dream of using exposure to mute the power of big money would be realized.
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Let me add that Texas may only turn blue in 2020 if a candidate like O'Rourke runs for President. Kamala Harris and collaborators will not carry TX, they will lose it by wide margins. Texas is too long of a shot yet, although the trends are auspicious.
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I'm saying to myself repeatedly, "Do not take the bait here; it's poison. The key to Democratic victories in 2020 and taking back the White House is to keep Trump around until the election. He will scorch the earth just by lighting wildfires every time he opens his mouth." What price victory? How will the world survive him until then? Save us now, Robert Mueller.
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[[But if President Trump decides to seek a second term — and he has said many times that he intends to.]]
That's a bluff to keep people guessing, like offering a condo at a special, limited time only price. Better chose now! Buy! BUY! BUY!!!
Thanks, yet again, for a brilliant article.
I find your caveat "if Trump runs again, if he remains this crass, if . . . then there is some likelihood . . ." - the most important element in this article.
Because I regard the constituency of suburban white women, currently repulsed by extreme right wing crassness of Trump - illusory and fickle. The fear of "those" people creeping into the neighborhood, schools, and localities is what made them staunchly republican since Nixon's southern strategy. Those fears are nascent, if only temporarily supplanted by an overt caricature of a candidate exuding misogyny and crassness. There is no change of heart, only a temporary inconvenience they are fixing.
What is inexplicable, other than simplistic explanations associated with religion-based views against abortion - is the traction republicans have among non-whites in the South.
How does a party that hates everyone who was not mainstream in 1950 - make themselves attractive by promising to take everyone back to those times. Do Hispanics, Blacks, others - really want to live in the 1950s with factories spewing black smoke, and all ethnics living in the periphery of the society - under fear and intimidation?
How do people like Bannon, Fox, Limbaugh, Trump, and the entire religious right (who are entitled to rule us because god said so) gain traction among them?
A carefully calibrated, nuanced explanation - of the kind you always offer - would be of great help Mr. Edsall.
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Trumpublicans are not conservative, they are radical right wing racists. True conservatives are never for radical change. True conservatives are having difficulty supporting trump because of the tax cut and some social issues that are down right reactionary. Good luck Republicans and real conservatives. With this crew in office you can only count on massive theft and a call for a return to Jim Crow.
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Two more years of the oleaginous Ted Cruz will also help turn the state of Texas blue in 2020.
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I would like to believe the premise of this article, but I have to pause when I realize that someone as unlikeable as Ted Cruz still won this year.
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The thought, and now the fact, that a President can be so deranged and toxic that his threat to our Democracy would alienate huge portions of his cult following is mind-boggling. But in Donald Trump we have just such a Dotard.
Texas is doomed if it follows the path of today's Republicans (aka Trumplicans). They have done this to themselves. Evidently enough people see the handwriting on the wall (mostly Democrats) to potentially save the Lone Star State from itself. These are not socialists, traitors, enemies of the state, etc. - they are Americans who oppose a clear and present danger to the existence of all.
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I even saw Beto signs in Waco recently.
You know things are changing when that happens. Next thing you know, you’ll be able to buy beer on Sunday mornings down here. Lord willin’ and the creeks don’t rise.
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“Trump, who campaigned extensively for Cruz, demonstrated “borderline racism” at times, Straus said. Some of Trump’s “rhetoric is extremely divisive” and
It’s dark. It’s not unifying. It’s not factual in many cases, and I think that’s the wrong direction for the leader of any party.”
Say it ain’t so, Joe!
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Could be that we’re reading too much into the recent close senate race. Cruz is a uniquely obnoxious person. Then again, so is Trump. In my traditionally moderate state-Tennessee-all Republican candidates pledged fealty to him. That may not be sustainable in the long run.
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Keep it up Trump, we like all the winning you promised. Especially when it means that you lose!
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Not just Texas. The longer Trump remains president the bluer the whole country will become -- when his base realizes it's been conned. Sooner or later, probably later, even the most gullible Trumpies will realize that Trump doesn't care about their health, he doesn't care about veterans or the military, he doesn't care about preserving Social Security or Medicare, he doesn't care about tax cuts for the working poor, he doesn't care about their jobs and he doesn't care about coal miners, farmers or their agricultural exports. All he cares about is self-aggrandizing and getting rich off the presidency.
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@Christy If his base hasn't realized by now that it's been conned it never will. Trump will always have his base. They demand to be conned. Why who can say? Nevertheless it is the rest of the rational voting population that will turn the country bluer. However once Trump is out they will turn back to red I imagine.
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@Christy -- being conned by this impostor is not the point. He allowed the haters to come out into the open and let them exhale. When they see their deep biases and racism being given a platform by the president they know that their voices are being heard. That's why they don't mind being conned.
Health care, the military and Social Security all take a back seat to the hate he espouses. On his whirlwind tour to energize his base for the midterms he didn't address any bread and butter issues, just the migrant caravan on its way to usurp white privilege. That was his only message and that's why his base doesn't mind being conned.
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@Christy
The problem is, most of them don't care that he doesn't care. They like the red meat being thrown around with insults to minorities, women, and anyone else that gets in Trump's way. It's the fight they love, most of them don't expect a thing. That's what many people don't understand about Trump's supporters. It makes no sense to rational people, but that's the way it is.
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Is it possible that people in Texas vote Republican but don't truly understand what it is they are voting for? Yes, just as people across the nation do the same, voting on a "feeling", an emotion or just going along with those around them.
Trump makes it blindingly clear with his bluntness and constant attacks what it means to be Republican these days. A huge turnoff for millions.
The traditional role of politicians is to carve off the hard edges of their ideas and plans and then, once in office, serve first the masters who helped them get there and then, at every turn, act as if they fully represent their constituents. Trump is all hard edges and divisiveness. Now you've got a clear choice, Texas. Make it.
Beto could likely win a Senate seat in two years, but he should also be considered a top contender for the Democratic presidential nomination. Someone much younger and new to the scene will be needed. He certainly seems smart enough to know, if he were to win the office, that a president must listen carefully to advisors who have spent decades working on specific issues. Anyone who foolishly thinks it is a one man job, all in the hands of a single individual, should never be allowed close to the White House.
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Many thanks for this report on the state of my state. I was an enthusiastic Beto supporter and think what Beto shared with a reporter in Lubbock the reason he came so close. His campaign with its emphasis on us, not them, or his opponent but in a debate, left hope, not despair, in its wake. The opinions of the political scientists around the state in universities and from the Texas Tribune are all positive signs for a progressiveness that will benefit the state more than the stasis the GOP stresses from red state thinking from Tea Party members, the conservative group in the state House and among its elected officials. Edsall did not mention the indictment the attorney general of the state faces, Ken Paxton. Yes, John Tower and George Bush broke the hold Democrats had on Texas. It's time for a reversal of that after lo these many years. Thank you, Beto! Thank you others who see the light. Onward.
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I'm a socially liberal, fiscally conservative independent. What turned me off so much during the 2016 debates was the level of extremism displayed by most of the Republican candidates.
I suspect most of them weren't really that extreme until pushed by Trump. Candidates at every level of government who adopted extreme positions to align with Trump risk alternating the"average" American. I'm not convinced all of them believe their own rhetoric, though I could be mistaken.
Yes, Americans have much to be concerned about, but I think most of their fears are in their own back yards, not across the border. Xenophobia, racism, misogyny, and generalized intolerance to anyone or anything different is emotionally and psychologically expensive. Haters eventually become outsiders, increasingly isolated from their communities and the nation as a whole.
The issues in Texas exist in North Carolina and other states as well. It's become tiresome. Whether Democrat or Republican, candidates must begin to adopt the Beto O'Rourke model of constructive and positive engagement with all citizens of their states. Greater transparency and a willingness to directly face both supporters and doubters is a must.
Too many Republicans erred by refusing to hold Town Halls with their constituents for fear of backlash. That only exacerbated the disconnect between candidates and constituents. They're no longer representatives of the people, but self interested individuals out for themselves.
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Agreed but it can also not happen if democrats nominate identity obsessed never met a war, trade agreement, Wall Street banker candidates like Hillary.
Except in extreme liberal districts, nominate populist, moderate progressive candidates that appeal to progressive programs that a majority of people want like universal health care, end of corporate welfare, infra structure spending, common sense immigration policy etc. etc.
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Back when CNN gained prominence with headquarters in Atlanta, people from around the country were hired to work there at CNN and in supporting industries. Georgia began to change.
A similar thing is happening in Texas. As more tech companies, research hospitals, aerospace industries, etc. bring people from around the country to live in Texas, the political soup is being altered.
This article is only looking at racial and ethnic influences, but there are many more influences at play.
When tech companies hire hundreds of workers from California or elsewhere, it will have an effect here in Texas.
All of this change is for the good (IMO, as a Texas resident.)
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@cw---I agree absolutely. A few years ago, Texas right-wingers were bragging about people moving here from "liberal states". At the time, I was astonished they didn't see the writing on the wall.
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Even more than the demographic trends, the economic trends are gong to destroy the Republicans. As more and more people lose their jobs to tech, the "Bernie" backlash is going to be overwhelming. Unless Republicans figure out a way to suppress the white working-class vote as well as they've suppressed the black, they'll be in deep trouble, I'm glad to say.
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Blue Texas could happen if the Democrats had any competence at all. Democrats let the GOP define them, responding to their lies with long rambling laundry lists of detailed policy proposals that excite only the most hyper political geek.
For the Democrats, this is their idea of great strategy.
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@gratis You live in a multiethnic, complex democracy. If all you reach for is the chicken mcnugget version of policies that must, out of necessity, be complex, then you will end up with policies that don't work and waste resources.
Be glad for the candidates who have well-thought-out, complex answers to complex problems. That is exactly what is needed. And if you find you can't understand the solution, go educate yourself on the issue so you can.
In other words, don't argue in favor of stupid. And for your country's sake, don't VOTE for the stupid.
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Texas is neither blue nor red. Texas is a non-voting state.
Fewer than one-third of eligible voters cast a vote in 2016.
Non. Voting.
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@Charles
Although Texas voter registration was the highest it's ever been, and many of those folks voted. Beto had/has a galvinizing effect - his campaign claims they knocked on over 1 million doors.
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@Charles It looks like that is finally changing. I suspect there are "Indivisible" groups now working on voter registration for the next round.
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Demographics (growth in the voting rolls of millenials and Latino voters) and higher turnout both made the Cruz-O'Rourke vote unusually close. While I have high hopes that TX may someday turn blue, the post-Trump Rebublican party leadership may well return to slightly less offensive hands, delaying the permanent swing of Texas into Democratic hands. Things take longer to change than most optimistic think; realistically, we are looking at 2028...ihmo.
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Much of Texas voters are still socially conservative, but, as Mr. O'Rourke's recent election evidenced, the Texas voters are persuadable by progressive economics. Texas' median family income trends closely with the rest of the US. The Democrats need to adopt socially centrist position , and expose Republicans on economic issues such as tax breaks for the ultra rich donor class, their repeated attempts to repeal affordable healthcare, their extreme positions on enacting sensible gun and environmental protections, their opposition to tuition-free 2 year college, their support for 'Free Trade" that has hollowed out the manufacturing might of the US. The Democrats need to reclaim their positions on trade deals that has been usurped by Mr. Trump. They (Democrats) need to enact policies that will protect higher skilled manufacturing jobs. Their past blunders such as excluding the voices of the working class, enacting one way trade deals like NAFTA, KORUS, and the widespread support of the Democrat party's leadership for TPP trade deals are definitely not the gold standard that will help the median families' economic well-being.
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@Zor
Yes, Texas voters are persuadable by progressive economics. All voters everywhere are persuadable by progressive economics, the kind that get Scandinavian type results (living wages, affordable healthcare, affordable quality education, adequate retirement, 4 week paid vacation for all workers by law, annual balanced budgets).
The Democrats want to focus on anything but that.
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@gratisWhen Democrats focus on living wages, etc, they’re called Socialists (of the USSR and China type) by the Republicans, when they focus on social justice, they are called identity obsessed by the Republican. Damned if they do, damned if they don’t. So why should Democrats care about Republicans? And why should fighting for living wages, etc, preclude fighting for the rights of women and minorities? The 2016 incorporated many of the Scandinavian policies you mention.
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@Anna: Oops, Last sentence should read: "The 2016 Democratic Platform incorporated many of the Scandinavian policies you mention."
Demographics are not magic. If a black man gets a property tax bill for $10,000 to pay for schools, or a Hispanic woman learns she has to pay $2 a gallon more for gas to prevent global warming, then they may reconsider their political position.
The more "minorities" become just regular people earning a living in the mainstream of society, the less useful they will be to the Democrats.
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@Jonathan, I'm not sure what the hell we're all about if it isn't trying to leave the world a better place for the next generation, like our parents did for us. So yes, we have to pay for schools and we have to make sacrifices to stop the planet from becoming uninhabitable.
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@Jonathan And as long as the Republican Party remains hostile to precisely that development, nonwhite people will continue to vote overwhelmingly for Democrats.
3
I’m curious: what are minorities to you now, if not regular people?
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The issue isn't Trump but demographics. But it's a two-way street. California and much of the Midwest will also be competitive if the Democrats keep moving left. We have had an unusually stable politics for twenty years and it could easily become more fluid.
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@Mike Livingston
the issue isn't trump, but demographics!?
it's both.
trump's personality, lying and policies have alienated vast swaths of the population as no other potus in modern history.
even RMN.
1
@Mike Livingston - "Democrats keep moving left".
Translation: Supportive of "Unalienable Rights" to "Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness" for all citizens; universal access to affordable health care; tax "reform" that ends the transfer of the nation's wealth to the pluto-corporatocracy; reduced spending on the MIC and increased spending on infrastructure; establishing environmental regulations that stop the profit-driven destruction of our only home, yada, yada…
3
The Republican party has moved to the extremes. It is now a far right party that welcomes racists, white supremacists, white nationalists, gun fanatics, anti-globalists, patriarchal misogynists, bigots, trade protectionists, religious theocrats, and your basic I hate everything voter. Trump brought them into the light, banded them together and got elected because of them.
Well, the young people will have none of it. College educated will have none of it. People of color will have none of it. People that are or support self determined sexual orientation and identity will have none of it. That's a lot of people!
With the influx of the professional working class, increase in hispanic people, increase in the number of young as the old guard dies off, Texas is changing. It may not go blue by 2020, but 2024 is looking like a clear blue sky! When that happens, the electoral map will be permanently tilted to the left. Stacy Abrams, a highly educated, left leaning progressive, brilliant black woman, almost got elected to the governorship of Georgia. Georgia! Something is going on. I'd like to see Stacy Abrams run for president. If she can get that many votes in Georgia, she can win by a landslide.
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@Bruce Rozenblit
That is a lot of people, but they gotta vote!
Angry people are motivated voters, and the GOP has made a science of targeting angry people and capitalizing on their enthusiasm for venting their anger at the polls against all the usual right-wing boogeymen.
13
@Bruce Rozenblit Well put! 2020 Prez winning ticket = Abrams/O'Rourke or O'Rourke/Abrams. I am so excited to see these young, principled, and highly educated people clearing the terrible storms of misogyny, bigotry and hatred to blue skies.
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"Even more telling for 2020, voters showed a clear preference for more moderate Republicans running statewide than for red meat, Trump-style Republicans."
Couldn't it be that more people are getting sick and tired of the negativity Donald Trump spews, which is picked up and repeated by their local GOP candidates?
Couldn't it be that more people are reading the news, discovering the truth, and educating themselves on which candidates represent their own viewpoints?
Couldn't it be that people in Texas (and other places) are asking themselves, "am I better off now than I was two years ago."
All politics is local. I suspect Ted Cruz, albeit the winner, ran on a national platform while Beto focused on the concerns of all Texans, not just the wealthy.
I think in the end, we're going to see many Republicans, across the country and in Washington, wake up and say to themselves, I'm tired of the angry, mendacious rhetoric and want to elect people who have my need in mind, not fictitious stories about "caravans," voter fraud, and other conspiracy stories.
About time.
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@ChristineMcM
Playing to people's anger and fears with rhetoric always works to some extent. So Democrats have got to mobilize the only stronger force: self interest. Asking people, are you better off now than you were several years ago? What has Trump done to help YOU?
12
Beto beat Ted Cruz in the cities winning with:
66% of the vote in Dallas County (Dallas)
74% of the vote in Travis County (Austin)
58% of the vote in Harris County (Houston)
60% of the vote in Bexar County (San Antonio)
50% to 43% in Tarrant County (Fort Worth) - the most conservative city in Texas
I have to think the cities, with the help of the suburbs, will eventually swamp the rural vote.
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@roving I hope to God that's true! We need a little hope out here in the rural counties!
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@T. Baxter After the 2016 election, I saw a banner along highway 90 west of San Antonio - out near Hondo that said, "Democrats are still here."
There's hope!
(IMO, if Fox went off the air, the rural opinions would change.)
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@T. Baxter I know, the most patriotic thing you can do is move to a pink or purple part of the state. My mind was blown when I saw that Williamson county voted blue.
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As you state, a rapidly increasing Latino population puts Texas on the cutting edge of demographic change. The effect of Trump rallies in 2014 shows that a Republican president can drive voters in Texas. The margins won by Greg Abbott, Sid Miller and other statewide candidates show that leans Republican and the Republican brand is still very strong in Texas.
Your comparison of Beto O'Rourke to John Tower is interesting. Tower lost to Lyndon Johnson in 1960. Johnson was on the ballot both for the Senate. When Johnson resigned to serve as Vice President in 1961, Tower then won the special election to fill the vacant seat and became the first Republican senator from Texas since Reconstruction. O'Rourke is a strong candidate and he may be just strong enough to defeat John Cronyn in the 2020 general election. The general election turnout will make 2020 every bit as tough a fight as Tower faced in the 1961 special election.
I love your column. Reading it is always a highpoint of my week.
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@OldBoatMan
Good points, although Abbott also won by a large margin because his opponent, Lupe Valdez, was a poor candidate. Texas Democrats need to find better gubernatorial candidates (like Ann Richards) to have any chance for that office.
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The major concern of most politicians is the next election. The republicans in the House and Senate don't want to buck The Con Don because they think that he could hurt them in the next election if they cross him. But if/when the day comes that bucking him is good politics then look out. I believe that most republican politicians support The Con Don because of political expediency; the day that it is not expedient, they will drop him.
Looking back over the recent election and this excellent column by Mr. Edsall, I seems that The Con Don generally helped the Democrats more than he helped the republicans. In fact, the Democrats should love to see The Con Don lashing out and tweeting and should hope that he will be on full display all day and everyday. It is said that people don't usually make good decisions when they are stressed and angry and it is reported that The Donald is more stressed and angry than usual.
The problem as I see it is to keep The Donald tweeting and lashing out and generally reminding everyone that he is a terrible human being and supports terrible policies, while not letting him set the Democratic agenda and while not playing his game. He has a base that will support him regardless of anything; but there are also many sensible republicans (like those mentioned in Mr. Edsall's column) who are being driven away. And Democrats are being energized.
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@Aubrey
Probably one of the worse places in America to be is inside Trump's head. He is proof positive that money buys neither happiness nor love. He is one miserable human being. Anyone who spends as much time as he does attacking others, lying, spewing venom, creating conspiracies, and patting himself on the back lives in a very tiny, very dark hole. I don't think he has any hope at all of change. He will die as he has lived, miserable and surrounded only by sycophants hoping for a mention in his will.
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@nora m No, The Donald will not change. Anyone who has spent 70 years thinking only about himself cannot change. What needs to change is his support. As I tried to say, many of his supporters are not going to change; but there are some who are sensible enough to be changeable. But in politics a change of 10 % in the polls could make the difference in elections in many places.
The more time The Donald spends on television and twitter lashing out and saying outrageous things, the more it undermines his support. And he seems to be growing more erratic. It is said that even FOX News has questioned some of The Donald's actions. If FOX disagrees with The Donald, who will his supporters believe? For many of the trump faithful, all they know about the world is what FOX told them.
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@Aubrey "The major concern of most politicians is the next election."
On a semi-related note, isn't it refreshing to read about the occasional Brit resigning their gov't position over matters of "principle". How impressively quaint!
12
I hope that "Texas is turning blue" is not the main takeaway from this article.
This trend (if it is one) is very early on, and it's not as if the Tea Party Republicans don't also see it and won't react to it - even in the age of Trump. (I'm waiting for all the invective to start spewing once the new Congress is seated...)
Right now, this is an indicator. And it can go in a number of directions, none of which has yet been defined.
Remember North Carolina. That, too, was once described as a purple state - and then Citizens United happened.
31
@dg
It's going to be purple again, and soon, even with Citizens United and gerrymandering, though it will show up first in non-gerrymanderable statewide races for President, Senator, etc.
The demographics are trending that way, but they may be tempered for a while by the tribal nature of turnout. If a person of color is on the 2020 Democratic Presidential ticket, I predict it'll be an eyelash close race there.
7
@dg
As a former Texas corporate transplant who spent 11-years in central TX its certainly true that TX politics is benefitting from many, many college-educated transplants; as well as the burgeoning Hispanic population.
As a recent NC transplant, its clear NC is truly a purple state. The NC-legislature's gerrymandered congressional districts have been ruled unconstitutional twice by Federal courts, in 2017 and again in 2018 on appeal. The Federal courts will insist on district maps that do not demonstrably favor one political party over another.
NC voters turned out in record numbers for a midterm election and state-wide the voters split right down the middle. However, due to the gerrymandered districts, 10 out of 13 districts were "won" by GOP incumbents.
I have to believe "the times they are a'changing" for NC going forward.
3