My fear is that a hard Brexit will cause enormous economical instability to the UK and will bring some hardship to the English not seen since WWII.
On the upside, this could be the kind of real life lesson to the rest of the EU members (I am looking at you, Italy) to understand why one should not follow the cheap advice of carnival barkers and funny haired buffoons.
Heck, the Brexit dumpster fire might even have folksy Trump supporters stateside consider that elections have consequences. Hopefully Trump has Farage and Johnson over at the White House again soon for memorable TV moments prior to 2020.
5
Mrs May lives in a parallel universe, cut off from all reality. So she has her 500 pages of the divorce and 4 pages on the new relationship. Hello, penny not dropped yet? Onward and upward as the upper class say.
The WW1 armistice commemorations on Sunday, reminded me of our lack of leadership then and now. Our leaders were happy to send young boys and the working classes "over the top" in a diabolical war, bereft of strategy. And here we are again under different circumstances but the outcome is equally dangerous. Cut adrift from Europe as populism and fascism are taking hold instead of playing our part supporting allies in Europe. And what's it all about? Miserliness. Petty English miserliness in not wanting to share resources. Greed never results in lasting peace.
My one encouragement of yesterday was the news that scoundrel Farage is a person of interest to Mueller, as I am sure the other scoundrel Aaron Banks will soon be. Brexit and Russia, not often talked about but the two of them have been in the pay of the Kremlin for a long time. Bank, Farage, Assange and Trump, the enemies of the people. Justice must come sometime soon for all these cowards.
5
Amazing to me that such a monumental shift was decided by simple majority.
Then again, we’ve made our fair share of
monumental election blunders...
4
"Jo Johnson quit his post as a rail minister". No, he didn't. He was heading the Department for Transport, there is no "Department for Rail".
2
PM May got finally to sign the only agreement possible with the EU at this moment. But the alarming pettifoggery inside the either the Tory cabinet or party itself would cost probably her post to Mrs. May. And the Labour is just waiting to collect the general frustration with or without Brexit.
1
November 14, 2014
What is new is new all parties will surely want to make the deal function for deal making is both ancient and historic and always - always has the genius of merchant minds to give causes to keep the flow of give and takes work wonders - even without the clarity of words and documentations that is interpretative, definable, intentinalities indeed. The wheel turns as so does all the world.............
1
Myself, I’d like to see Britain stay in the EU. But I think predictions of its calamitous future outside the EU are vastly exaggerated. After a period of adjustment, Britain will do just fine.
As to the voters, they knew exactly what they were voting for: they wanted their country back; they wanted fewer immigrants; they wanted less interference in domestic affairs by the German finance ministry, and the Brussels bureaucrats who owe their first allegiance to multinational corporations.
Complaints about the voters are, in my view, are sour grapes. They are made by liberals who think they know what’s best for everyone.
2
@Ron Cohen Spoken like someone who has Never been to Northern Ireland, and knows precisely Nothing about the negative economic, political and societal impact of Brexit on the North, and the Border - where I’m from.
Instead, we constantly see people like You, thousands of miles away, displaying complete indifference about how Brexit affects the island of Ireland - something which both countries here grasped within seconds, but which two years later, many people like You still fail to grasp, and fail utterly.
Instead, we’re “liberals” when we think about the ruinous impact of Brexit on our mutually intertwined economies. But then, why would you care, when you can just be so blasé about it All?
4
@Ron Cohen
They are not 'immigrants'. They are EU citizens who have the right of free movement within the EU. The same right to study, work, live, retire as the British do in any EU member state.
2
It seems likely that May's "deal" involves remaining a voluntary adherent to the Customs Union and Border Controls. The Leave faction would strongly oppose this in Parliament.
It will be seen whether Leavers want to turn this into a contest between a No-Deal Brexit and a formal Brexit that (for now) lacks any substance.
Above all, politicians crave power. The most unscrupulous - or sociopathic if there is any difference - prey on the elderly, the uninformed and uneducated. Their tools are hate, fear, bigotry, xenophobia, tribalism/nationalism and in this day of instant communication, massive campaigns of disinformation. A significant number of people are authoritarian types who are most comfortable being told what to think or do and prefer the ease of seeing issues in black and white terms. Another large group are wrapped up in their own little worlds and have no interest in the demands of civic engagement. As many have pointed out here, the disastrous consequence of these attitudes have brought the two pre-eminent empires of modern times to their knees, with Trump and Brexit more miles on the road to ruin.
6
"Nevertheless the conclusion of a draft deal is a big moment for Mrs. May"
At a global species level, I believe we must now acknowledge more widely than in the professions related to psychology and other 'sciences of the psyche' that no matter how successful some people appear, everyone has at least
some unresolved shame. If so, then this will be a factor successful people will much more often have to acknowledge as limiting the efficacy of our efforts as a species to resolve collectively deepening conflicts. Leading protagonists are likely to be insensitive to the smaller issues of big decision-making, and following agents are likely to fail to think rationally about the implications for big decision-making of multiple instances of small-minded behaviour.
This has been vaguely apparent in:
. the traditional fault lines of conflict between 'left' and 'right' ideologies
. the fault lines surfaced by globalization trends between the approaches of 'Eastern' and 'Western' civilizations to democracy and authority, and between the feelings of people in 'North' and 'South' economies about how to manage climate change, and between winners and losers from processes of globalization.
It is now glaringly apparent in the nominally successful English-speaking nations -- as evidenced by the anger surrounding Brexit the political turmoils surfacing over the last two years in the US.
It seems like us and our British cousins have both got a bad deal. We got Trump and they got leaving the EU. Funny at this point nobody can figure how it happened.
4
@Thomas Renner
I figure the ignorance of voters is the main reason. Easily fooled by arguments that appeal to base emotions.
6
@UScentral
It's a little more complicated than that 'the deplorables' are the entire problem. See my comment posted 18 minutes before yours.
Anyone with a clear-eyed perspective of geopolitics will discern that the real architect of Brexit is actually Vladimir Putin
His goal is to shatter Allied unity whilst resurrecting the Soviet Union.
By leaving the EU, the once united kingom will rub-a-dub-dub itself into a virtual Three Men in a Tub, drifting aimlessly over the frigid North Atlantic event horizon into oblivion.
9
@Etaoin Shrdlu For all of his many failings, Putin - wily despot that he is - had precisely Nothing to do with Brexit. Nothing.
I don’t think you grasp at all the kind of romantic, misty-eyed, dangerous nostalgia for British imperialism that still lingers across much of Britain, particularly amongst older people. Broadly, old people voted to leave the EU, young people voted to stay - but old people tend to actually go and vote, unlike young people, so they marched down to vote.
Did they know what leaving the E.U. would entail? No. Did they care? No. They voted for a dream, and nobody, anywhere - except people far, far beyond Britain and the E.U. - has ever once linked that thug Putin to this disastrous vote. I really don’t think that you understand certain British mentalities at all...
And the winner is ... once again, Vladimir Putin
5
Amazing that this article goes on at great length about the background, strategy, and prospects for acceptance of the deal, but fails to provide the basic facts of the terms of the deal. What exactly is in the deal? Give us the facts before launching into the bloviating & pontificating!
3
I'm convinced that a good "Monty Python" sketch could help in describing this ludicrous situation. It's uncertain if there will be any winners in this fiasco. However, undoubtedly, Great Britain is guaranteed to be the biggest loser in March.
7
"Conservative, pro-Brexit hard-liners fear that a plan to prevent border checks might keep the United Kingdom tied indefinitely to European customs rules, preventing it from striking free trade deals further afield. They want a mechanism under which the government in London could quit unilaterally, something the European Union has adamantly resisted."
In other words, Brexiteers expect not only to have cake but also have others preserve the cake Brexiteers want in the other's fridge -- until the Brexiteers feel they want to eat that cake. Worse, this egregiously inequitable demand is promoted by the Etonian class, who sharply deny that their underlings will eventually have to pay the price of fridge rental -- even as the Etonians are among the greatest exploiters of tax avoidance schemes around the world.
Are Brexiteers like Trumpian real estate moguls and their Trumpian base? You betcha.
10
The EU is like the Eagles song "Hotel California"
"Relax' said the night man,
'We are programmed to receive.
You can check out any time you like,
But you can never leave!'"
4
Theresa May's withdrawal agreement, running to hundreds of pages, covers only the practical part of Brexit. It is only a licence to proceed into transition, where questions of long-term alignment with the EU must then be finalised.
“Brexit means Brexit” – a slogan May adopted in July 2016 when she succeeded David Cameron has turned out to be trickier than she thought. Meanwhile she has realised the uncertainty of quitting the EU with no deal at all.
Yet the terms she has negotiated offer Britain an inferior status, influence and power on the European continent and in the world than Britain has enjoyed as an EU member. Diehard Brexiteers reject this “vassalage”, while others would call for a new vote and let people to decide whether they really want to leave the EU at all.
4
@V Nagarajan
I agree. I can imagine EU patience is wearing thin.
The EU would probably also insist that England adapt the Euro as their currency and drop the pound as a show of commitment.
3
All this is based on fraudulent claims that the pro-Brexit politicians used to win the referendum. Remember the 350 million pounds a week that could be used to fund NHS? Now that the scam has been exposed, it's time for a second referendum.
9
UK and Europe were always trading with each other. Trade and collaboration from wool to the Concorde. The EU provided some shared benefits to trade. Money from EU was given to various towns and regions in the UK to promote economic development. Now the UK will be on its own, a true island.
8
Nobody has actually seen the agreement yet, but if the leaks are to be believed, this is a horrible mess.
BINO - the dreaded 'Brexit In Name Only' - all the disadvantages of being tied to the EU with none of the benefits. I voted Remain; this deal is FAR worse than staying in and, at the same time, obviously unacceptable to the misguided citizens who voted to Leave.
The article mentions Steve Baker, a self important little weasel and leading light of the extremist Brexiter 'European Research Group', a covert bunch of assassins who have worked tirelessly to undermine the EU and Britain's place in it whilst, incredibly, being funded from the public purse. Baker (and the ERG) are a busted flush. They may be able to trigger a leadership challenge to Theresa May but have nowhere enough Parliamentary support to win the vote. Mrs may is safe. Ignore him, and them.
The options are now: Accept this absurd 'deal' or go to a second Referendum on: 'Remain in EU' vs 'Leave w/No-Deal'. Mrs May *could* call an election but won't; there's a real risk of crypto-Marxist Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party seizing the reins.
I reckon this dreadful deal WILL prevail. The warring factions - 'Rejoin' vs 'Leave Properly' will be fighting for another decade.
8
@nolongeradoc I'm sure there are huge gaps in my understanding of this. I'm astonished that a public referendum conducted during a time of heightened emotions and low understanding was then taken as binding on something as momentous and consequential for the entire nation as EU membership. It seems since that event, more and more people are saying "I didn't realize leaving meant..." Even given the current insanity in the U.S., this is one for the record books.
8
@nolongeradoc
Well put. Make that two decades.
4
The shrinking elephant in the room: a country that once owned the globe is now so enfeebled that it is closing up shop with its nearest neighbors. "A nation of shopkeepers" is becoming a quaint backwater of anti-immigration and chauvinism. By a misguided notion of saving its soul Britain is going to lose its shirt.
11
Now that they know what Brexit actually means, it would be a good idea to have a second referendum.
8
Our British cousins have fallen from “the empire on which the sun never sets “ to squabbling over reducing themselves even further to a mere island in the North Atlantic.
Sadly the UK is self absorbed in its former greatness.
Leaving the EU will isolate this monumental democracy and have it join the US in its xenophobic Nationalism.
9
To paraphrase H.L.Mencken -" Democracy is the theory that common people know what they want and they deserve to get it good and hard"- Why not just leave and suffer the consequences, after all that's what they voted to do.
3
The British have spent the last 18 months arguing among themselves, procrastinating, and attempting a number of futile ploys to divide the other 27 members of the EU. Finally it's make your mind up time. While no one has seen the agreement, it's reputed to be 500 pages long so you have to wonder what May's cabinet are going to learn from a fairly brief reading, the contents have been fairly widely trailed as some of its opponents have commented. Essentially it involves the UK legally remaining in the EU customs union and much of the single market indefinitely without any unilateral right to leave but without any future involvement in the process of rule making. This is why its opponents are calling it (somewhat hyperbolically) vassalage. It's a greatly inferior position to the one the UK currently enjoys but given the mess they have gotten themselves into with idiotic vote it's about the best they can hope for. We'll see whether May can get it through the cabinet and commons. She has a fair chance given that the alternative of a crash out would be a disaster but never underestimate the appetite for nihilism among the anti EU fanatics in her own party.
14
@V Nagarajan
The Irish border is really just a subset of the fundamental contradiction at the heart of the Brexit project. Executing the "Will of the people" as narrowly expressed in that referendum vote means inflicting serious harm on the British economy and state and no responsible government can do that. May couldn't spell this out because it would have split the Conservative party so she has resorted to running the clock out and obfuscation. Since the British government has done no real preparation for an exit they are now faced with the choice of phony exit or catastrophe. She is gambling that ultimately they will settle for a more apparent than real exit.
4
Sounds like a complete mess. It’s time for another vote to determine if the British people truly want to withdraw from the EU.
11
@Chris
In the EU you can have vote after vote until the result is one the EU likes and then you never vote again.
@Rocket J Squrriel How is it the Europeans Unions decision whether the Brits get a second referendum or not?
1
This is far from a done deal. The 27 heads of the other member states of the EU are yet to give a verdict, and neither the UK parliament or the European Parliament have voted on it.
If you want an analogy imagine a state like Hawaii trying to leave the USA, but wanting to keep all the benefits of being in the union whilst paying no tax to the federal government and ignoring federal law.
That's pretty much what Brexit amounts too.
14
@Braddock
Except that UK GDP is closer to California than Hawaii. Otherwise, that's a pretty good analogy.
2
@V Nagarajan The EU has already made plain they would except a hold on article 50 if the UK requested it. No deal is the least likely outcome.
The headline is incorrect, the British government has agreed a deal with the EU.
Our elected representatives have NOT yet seen the deal. Only a few selected people from one party have so far seen it.
There is great debate about whether our parliament will vote to agree the deal, and many in Mrs May's own party oppose it.
As to the British people, we will not get a chance to comment until our next election.
2
Headline isn't right. A long, long way from agreement. The Brexit people are on a road to nowhere.
6
So where are the billions in savings that con man Boris promised during the Brexit campaign? The UK was sold a dream by charlatans (that are no longer in public office) and now have to put up with a very ineffectual PM.
Thanks go to David Cameron.
12
I'm certain that Brexit will have short-term affect to all parties. But, it is interesting to note that most of the sticking points in the exit negotiations are over sovereignty. The EU has an issue with how Britain will implement migration and border crossings between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The idea of globalism (eg. United Nations, NATO, EU, etc.) where one country cedes a piece of its sovereignty to the "greater good of the alliance" is a recipe for long-term disaster. In the not to distant past, the countries that made up the USSR, along with many of the puppet states inside the iron curtain, found themselves alone facing uncertain economic futures, when the matriarch country fell apart. Isn't that sort of the same thing with the EU? A lot of high-minded politicos dictating membership in an organization that was once a common trading bloc and turned into a super-government entity, redistributing "wealth" from one member to another, and the richest member got to set the rules.
I think Britain will rue their exit, but the reluctance of the EU to recognize what it had become is the underlying cause. Watch Greece exit the EU next, when some of their debt comes due. The system is going to fall apart if saner sovereign heads don't prevail.
2
@Dave B
It is not just the EU that requires clarity on the Irish border. It is a matter of international law.
No, the USSR and its collapse is not "sort of the same thing" as the EU. The EU Council and Commission are made up of representatives of the member states, which have a veto on all sorts of things (the UK and eight other EU countries are not in the eurozone, the UK has used its veto many times - nixing tax transparency, tax on financial transactions, tax evasion measures, etc. etc.). The smaller countries have the same representation on these bodies as the large ones do. And are not dictated to - they participate in and comply with collective decisions because it is in their interests to do so.
The notion that any other country will leave is highly unlikely, and the Brexit mess has not decreased but increased support for the EU throughout Europe - being out is a threat (currently, to Poland and Italy), not a realistic option. As for Greece, they've been there and got the T-shirt. and will not be leaving, entirely understandably. Their problems were caused by their own governments and policies, not the EU.
12
@Dave B
I should have added...
Just like ours.
3
@Dave B You realize that there is a slight difference between the EU and the Soviet Union, right? Nationalism does not solve any problems. It causes wars, nobody knows that better than Europeans with their century-long history of bloody wars. The EU is not the problem, it is the solution. We need a stronger EU.
8
Boris Johnson and friends may soon discover that you can not have your cake and eat it too.
How the voters of the UK fell for such nonsense is beyond me.
Then again, how 62 million Americans fell for Trump's nonsense is also beyond me.
Two nations joined by a common idiocy.
49
An unmitigated disaster brought to us by the worst government team in living memory (apart from Thatcher) - Cameron and Osborne. They never really tried to reform the EU from within. Cameron was far to lazy to be bothered to try. They tried to kill off a nuisance wing of their party by staging a fake referendum with no real information or platform which they complacently thought they would win easily. When they lost they ran away and left everyone else in the mess. Their replacements rather than treating this as the greatest crisis since May 1940, which it is, and creating a government of national unity to work this whole thing out has been treated as just another party political issue. I might even consider migrating to the USA!
19
@Michael At the present time, you might be dismayed to see the level of crudeness to which US citizens have allowed our nation to sink. I advise you to look elsewhere or wait to see what our next Presidential election brings.
6
@Michael
As a Brit in my 60s (age wise), I have much admired many, many things American.
But migrate there? Now?
Out of the frying pan into a very large fire. Sorry...
2
@Michael
How about giving Canada a look?
1
IN MY VIEW, The Brits would do well to step back from the abyss and consider this: Was the vote cast resulting in Brexit based upon Russian meddling? There is ample evidence that the Russians have a history of planting false news. Have the Brits been hoodwinked by the Russisans, or does the Brexit truly represent the will of the people. Will this question be raised? The Brits know better than anyone the evils of the Russians engaging in military tactics by poisoning former spies in violation of British sovereignty. They may well be overlooking the fact that the Russians have used wartime poison with the fake news they planted during the Brexit vote, along with any tampering with the voting process. Answering these questions before leaping into the void is a crucial safety measure for the Brits to employ to their benefit. The Russians are going to be delighted of they have been successful in hoodwinking the Brits. Are the Brits going to submit to Russian tactics and forego their democracy? It happened here in the US. And is still happening. Brits beware! What lies ahead may not be of your own doing, but rather of the machinations of your evil foe.
4
@John Jones
Thank you for your insight.
It's now been shown, beyond reasonable doubt, that the referendum result was criminally manipulated through the illegal use of covert dark money funding. Whether or not the cash came from Russia - which appears likely - is secondary to the electoral fraud.
Parliament's own rules (the 2007 Venice Convention) mandate that the 2016 referendum is declared null and void. Mrs May has invoked an arcane legal technicality to sidestep the Venice rules and there is even further evidence that the UK government has attempted to suppress the police investigation of electoral fraud.
2
@John Jones
They've looked over and over and can't find anything that really mattered. All the 'A HA! We've found it!' stories of Russian influence doesn't show anything.
Actually there is more evidence of the EU and the US, under Obama, paying the remainer groups to create the support for staying in.
1
Mrs. May took on a problem without a solution when she was chosen PM after the Brexit vote.
Prior to the vote, Brits were fed a raft of false information on how simple it would be to exit the EU and how much money Britain would save by leaving.
It was never going to be simple. The savings projections were quickly junked.
Sort of like here in the US. When a country makes decisions based on falsehoods, the results are usually awful.
11
@Adrentlieutenant. Sometimes democracy makes mistakes. We(the USA) is the premier example right now. When we do we must try to correct them. "No one says that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government- except for all the others that have been tried. .... ". Winston Churchill
5
Really a pity. Even if all the processes can be muddled through, the political scars will remain. Every country has its Original Sin that regularly recurs and damages the polity. For the US it is clearly racism; our Civil War exceeded in deaths all of our other wars combined. And the damage to our cities in race riots has vastly exceeded any harm caused by any foreign power.
For the U.K. it seems to be the class structure. There is a nastiness to personal exchanges that is fun to watch on BBC shows, but is appalling and discomfiting in person. One wonders if any British really like each other.
60
@Robert Goodell
You're quite right: race is the original sin of the US (which I witnessed in that most liberal of states, California); and class in the UK. The idiocy of the UK's withdrawal from the EU was set in train - and supported - by former pupils of that most elite private school (alma mater of Princes William & Harry), Eton: former prime minister, David Cameron; former Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson; and ambitious 'Brexiteer', Jacob Rees-Mogg. All that money spent on an education which has led to the UK preparing to throw itself off a cliff. The US and the UK: united by a common language; and by different, but equally damaging, forms of stupidity.
93
One should be careful in drawing your understanding of society from TV, advice your president should heed. My view is that race and class is usually intertwined; coming from a Liverpool working class background i found that class was both corrosive and protective. We felt sorry for the upper classes who we thought were socially disconnected. Sadly class communalism has since declined.
I did my PhD on US healthcare, which entirely encapsulates dimensions of race and class. Almost a unique division in the OECD. Just back from West Texas where I witnessed massive inequality and exploitation of a scale we don't see in Britain.
As for British people not liking each other I can't say. We tend to be a cynical bunch, and frankly we like it that way. It is explains our nuanced sense of humour.
I find Americans to be very friendly (except in NYC, where I have worked.) On the other hand the obsession with guns, religion and vile right wing politicians, I find alarming. The race here is sad and alarming.
My general feeling is that one has to look at societies very closely to understand them. What may seem a disadvantage may be the opposite.
15
@Monterey Seaotter
"United by a common language"
Yes, nominally. But in practice the forms of said 'common' are hugely varied and tribally divisive.
Of great interest to me is the remarkable fact that English-speaking people express their emotions more as if they were thoughts than as feelings. The French, the Portuguese, and increasingly the Germans, all now members of the great European project which has been remarkably successful in bringing former foes together, do the converse. They label their feelings first and then explain them. This psycho-linguistic difference makes the Portuguese, French and Germans more honest and accounts for the longstanding epithet for Britain of "Perfidious Albion".
Has anybody toted up the cost of all this? Two and a half years of negotiation, lawyers, analysts, administration, travel, etc etc etc have had to cost tens of millions of dollars/pounds/euros, whatever. Maybe it's in the nine figures. How about having spent that money on health care, or public housing that meets fire codes?
It was highly irresponsible for the government to have run away from making a decision on the EU. They were elected to make tough decisions like that, and they punted. Shameful. And a huge cost to the taxpayer for what? Scratching a political itch.
57
Has anybody totaled up the cost in time, energy, money and other resources, wasted away by people engaging in speculation about the hypothetical?
3
Well said. The waste of billions means we have 14 million living in poverty, 4.5 million of them children and public services that have been destroyed by 8 years of Tory ideological clap trap.
10
@Stevenz£500 million a week on average add to that the fall in investment and you get some pretty big numbers .
3
Brexit really culminates many reasons why Britain has become completely irrelevant to the rest of the world. The only reason it has to continue an existence is to act as a banking center for the disreputable money of the Middle East and elsewhere, while London remains an ugly pastiche of knife crime, random terror and insufferable classism. Britain has been off our travel list for decades and the hassles one would encounter after Brexit is a done deal will convince millions of other people to turn their backs on Blighty.
6
Not to mention the billions coming in from criminal Russian oligarchs and the murder of UK citizens by Russian thugs.
2
@Tournachonadar
Er, wrong. The UK exists because it's a centre of tax evasion and money laundering AND arms manufacture. Weapons exports second only to the US. So, a GDP of fraud and death.
But, regarding London, you must have purchased Mr Trump's tourist guide. Right now, I'm sitting in Central London. I'm just walking out for a spot of lunch and I'll visit my local gym later. This evening, out again using our excellent public transport. I'll interact with all sorts of interesting people without any of us thinking about 'class'. I won't have any concerns about knife crime and terrorism. In fact, I'll feel much safer than I would in any American city.
Where do you get this 'ugly pastiche' nonsense. I thought Americans were brave, tough and smart enough not to fall for silly lies.
4
@nolongeradoc I am French and consider London to be a chaotic hellhole compared to the beauty of Paris, now so sadly given over to mass tourism...
The joke is on the UK. The referendum was one of the phonies t exercises of a ll time in so-called democracies.
How could anyone in their right mind call a >50% of the vote a righteous exercise that could determine the fate of a nation?
A referendum is not an election of individuals.
72% of eligible voted and 52% voted to leave. That means about 37% of the eligible decided the fate of the 100% (not counting adults too young to vote).
The antiquarian politicians who promoted this kind of junk thinking are simply cutting the throats of the nation by continuing this charade of democracy.
Well, you get the government you deserve until your experience convinces you else wise.
The cut point should have been 70%.
12
The real problem is that no one has any idea how things will be under once the UK has left the EU.
3
@Adrentlieutenant
I think it's safe to assume that things aren't going to be any better.
The people who voted in favor of BREXIT in the UK are as ignorant and small-minded as the people who voted for Trump as president in the US. The only difference is that Americans by far voted (~3 million) against Trump in the popular vote. We here in America would love to see democracy restored here.
19
We are all a bit weary, for the past two years the government has catered to 17 million xenophobic votes, 15 million in England, NI and Scotland voted to remain, this is anything but united. Catering to the right wing and ignoring the many millions who prefer to remain, especially now in light of the lies and manipulation that were told has been mind boggling irresponsible. Blaming the EU for the ills of eight years of Austerity has been mind boggling ignorant.
Couple that with an opposition leader who agrees with Brexit, a Brexit secretary, Raab who suddenly realised the UK is an island and had no idea how important the port of Dover was, we are mired in Stupidity. The danger across so many western countries today is this right wing uprising of hate and division, from the US to the UK to Italy, it's pathetic that we have forgotten the lessons of history and allow the charlatans to manipulate with hate and fear.
26
@bluejil
Totally agree. It has been like living in a kind of alternative reality. The Brexiteers, and the people cheering them on, have still not come up with any coherent plan for the economy and trade and no solution to the Irish border. Just pie in the sky. And outrageous accusations of "talking the country down" when "enemies of the people" point out the legal and logical consequences of this catastrophic vote.
Dover is a perfect example: 44% of our exports are to the EU, and 53% of our imports (including 30% of our food, much of it fresh). At the moment there are no customs formalities at the port (2.6m trucks) or tunnel (1.6m), so just 15 minutes' delay would cost the economy £850,000 per year. Yet according to the FT, "the typical time to clear border checks in high-income countries is ... 12 hours and 40 minutes". And no plan, no extra customs staff, nothing.
And yet over 50 of our lawmakers actively want no-deal, trading on WTO rules only, while negotiating our own trade agreements (which take years even if you have experienced negotiators, which we don't, as we haven't needed them for 40 years ... and rarely include services, which make up 80% of our GDP). So we will be like tiny Mauretania, the ONLY country that currently trades on WTO rules only. Per capital GDP $1300/year.
None of this is remotely in the national interest, so the real question is why they are so determined to make this happen. And why the government keeps pandering to them.
6
I would like to see the detail before commenting.
I would just like to note at this point that there is only a 1-letter difference between “draft” and “daft”.
The whole concept of Brexit was daft so it will be interesting to see if this d[r]aft deal adds an “r”.
6
If Britain is so eager to leave the EU, then let them, no matter how unwise the choice.
From many accounts, the Scottish and Northern Ireland would like to stay, so why are people so tied to a “United Kingdom”? Break-it-up!
Maybe some US southern states want to go their own way, northern states will accept their refugees. I’d take that and let em go and wish them the best of luck with their antebellum banana republic. Possibly better than the gridlock and corporate control we have today.
7
I don’t know what all the fuss is about. It’s clearly a choice between (a) cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face or (b) shooting oneself in the foot.
But by all means, do NOT put up the final agreement to any kind of vote. Where is the fun in that? No take-backsies!
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I don't know why the EU even bothers with the UK. They should just cut the UK loose and watch it flounder. It would be karmic payback for their execrable colonial behaviour of the past.
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Exactly, the UK voted to leave, so leave already.
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@Bis K
I'm glad you said that.
It's a tenet of the delusional pro-Brexit faction that our Commonwealth buddies are going to welcome us back into UK favourable trade deals, just like old times.
You're Australian and resentful about the past. That's nothing compared with treachery and contempt suffered by New Zealand farmers in 1975. They certainly haven't forgotten, either.
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The parallels between Brexit and Trumpism are instructive. Both are suicidal urges, voluntary acts of self-flagellation. The world is full of serious challenges. In each instance these are ignored in order to focus quixotically on defeating imaginary monsters.
The Brexit referendum affirmed a romantically churlish sentiment, a dreamy restoration of imperial prerogative. When the consequences began to take shape, the impossibility of the Brexit enterprise became apparent. The hard-core "leave" faction refused to see the reality of the situation, retreating further into mythology. They would rather fail gloriously and bring down the cumbersome modern state than compromise with a perceived fatal imperfection. Removing Britain from the EU is like trying to "unweave" a fabric row by row without breaking any threads.
What sort of conceptual fudge will emerge to finesse the backstop conundrum? Allowing Britain to unilaterally terminate it means the backstop is only a mirage, a speed hump on the road that may temporarily slow the departure but fails to resolve the border issue. Retaining EU consent means that Britain will stay subject to EU regulations until it can invent an Irish border that can only exist in the imagination.
As for Theresa May her greatest, and perhaps only, accomplishment will be to have endured. She will survive politically, dazed and wounded, to the end of the main negotiation process only because no other sane Tory would ever want to replace her.
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It is some what ironic that hardline Brexiteers in the Conservative party are opposed to any deal when their big business overlords are quietly pulling the government's strings to make a deal.
Make no mistake about it, big business is dictating the result of any Brexit deal.
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At the time of the vote on Brexit the concerns were immigration, control of laws and the overall cost of membership. These are all very emotive issues. What hadn’t been appreciated was that behind all the emotion and rhetoric lie the realities of leaving the EU. Any trading with the EU post Brexit will need to comply with EU regulations in the same way the UK is required to comply with US laws. UK residents won’t take the low paid jobs done by citizens to other EU countries and so post Brexit a means will need to be found of bringing those workers back to the UK.
When it comes to negotiation the exit deal it was one country against 26 and so you just aren’t going to get a deal that benefits the UK and disadvantages the EU. I don’t think it matters who is negotiating the outcome is going to be just the same.
Going back to the people for a referendum at this stage, once they see the realities what they voted for and how disadvantaged they are likely to be, is just not going to happen. The UK had better take its medicine and like it.
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@Adrentlieutenant Adults who vote for something/someone without "appreciating" "realities" (your words) don't deserve others' sympathies. Whether in the UK or the US, people need to take their faces out of their cell phones and away from television screens and realize that not "appreciating realities" can bring down an entire nation. No culture lasts forever.
From the peanut gallery over the pond: Sure seems like Brexit is not a majority opinion any more. Is there nothing the majority can do to stop this wretched plan? The whole thing seems like a world class mess, wasting good time and money, with disastrous results waiting in the wings. And right now we need all hands on deck to fight the main battle: democracy vs. autocracy. Come on Brits! Let's see that good old fighting spirit and common sense! Nix Brexit, rejoin the EU. Let's get on with it. We need you!
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@Gwen Vilen Let's not forget that it was democracy that lead to Brexit.
@Adrentlieutenant: Let's not forget that it was a democracy that led to Trump. In both cases the majority did not speak and in both cases narcissistic nationalism is kicking the feet out from under our democracies.
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...and russia... and fear...and racism...and intolerance...all with 37% of the people voting.
Democracy on paper. A brilliant ad campaign in reality
The Leave crowd have blue skied this thing from the start, and now that the thorny details have emerged, it seems there is nothing they wouldn't support in their quest to turn back the clock. Throwing Ireland back to pre-Good Friday border conditions would be a real shame, yet the Brexiters don't seem to care. Oh, I don't blame the English for being suspicious of Brussels or for bristling at Euro rule, but the Brexit vote was a lousy and irresponsible way to enact policy.
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@V Nagarajan
The GFA provides for a Border Poll at any time where it seems likely there will be a majority in favour of unification. That is not currently the case and may not be for some time (although it is surely inevitable, and welcome, at some point). Even in the republic there is no majority support for sudden reintegration given its enormous expense and potential for violence. I would like to see a united Ireland but I have to say your plan would be a disaster.
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@V NagarajanThe GFA provides for a Border Poll at any time where it seems likely there will be a majority in favour of unification. That is not currently the case and may not be for some time (although it is surely inevitable, and welcome, at some point). Even in the republic there is no majority support for sudden reintegration given its enormous expense and potential for violence. I would love to see a united Ireland but easy does it!
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@V Nagarajanthe Good Friday Agreement has allowed for the reunification of my island by way of a referendum. This referendum can only be called when the British think there would be a majority of the population in the north who would want reunification, however the entire island would be able to vote for or against. There are no other agreed mechanisms for the island to reunite.
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The reason neither Brexiteers nor pro-Europeans are happy with the exit plans is that EU membership is what it was intended to be: a win-win partnership. Leaving, therefore, is a lose-lose proposition. The saddest fact is that there's no stepping back from the precipice to which Mr. Cameron, and now Mrs. May, have led their island nation.
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@Bill Both Cameron and May will argue that they are enacting the will of the people. If you want to hold someone responsible then look to the voters.
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What exactly do you mean by “will of the people”? Majority of voters voting leave does not equal majority of the people.
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@Adrentlieutenant Cameron initiated and scheduled the vote to shore up his political position, hoping and expecting that it would lose. May pursued it rather than make any effort to walk it back, fearful for her own fortunes. And so a divorce that's in neither party's interest is marching inexorably forward.
The prolonged and shambled ' Brexit' saga unanimously pronounce that the Britain is currently run by most incompetent politicians.The question remains to be addressed, are we still respecting democratic norms in dealing with people lives?The answer is NO.
The 'Brexit' negotiation strategy has centerd around one and only one concern of the ruling dispensation.It is to save Mrs Theresa May and secure her stay at the 10 Downing Street. So the option of Mrs May and those Conservative Parliamentary Members, who subscribe to her, is to hold to their guns with a most callous disregard for the social,economic,political,environmental well being of the United Kingdom.
Why a narrow ( 4 perent ) more votes were cast by the British in favour of leaving the European Union ? This question has not been adequately addressed by the political forces of either of the main two Parties, viz: Conservative or Labour.
The ' Brexit' was voted in the wake of the worst 'austerity' economy imposed in Britain by Cameron Government that strangulated the welfare of the working and middle class.It was a self imposed compulsion under' neo-liberal ' economic agenda.
The 'neo-liberal economy' has proved ,on a global scale, antipeople and procorporate . Intervening years affirmed that it leads to neo-fascist tendencies. Deprived of a dignified living while a large wealth continued ( still continues ) to be accumulated with ten percent in the population, a narrow majority voted 'Brexit'.
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Thank you for your erudite assessment. It is without doubt the worst thing to beset our country. I am appalled at how this power grab has been conducted and the nonsense that's been spouted.
Mrs May is not a politician who commands the nation's respect or loyalty. A weak self serving novice of a negotiator, absent in candour and stubborn to the detrimental consequences.
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@Prof Anant Malviya The UK has stuck to the proscribed time course and so it cannot reasonably be considered prolonged. The negotiations have been the subject of a lot of rhetoric, including claims of "shambolic". However, an agreement has emerged.
With regard to "austerity" I view this as fiscal responsibility; the UK having taken the lead from Canada and Germany on getting its economy into order.
Lets have less rhetoric and more facts.
May’s government has had nearly 2 years to negotiate the exit, but now only has an outline plan with 4 months left? The EU should s just say goodbye in March.
“It’s worse than membership.” Of course it is. The Brexit referendum was a sham from the very beginning, How can you ask to vote between two options when the consequences of one of them is absolutely unknown? And don't get me started with the pro-Brexit campaign, which was built on lies and racism.
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This is NOT what those who voted to leave were voting for. If leave had meant leave then the UK would have said "give us the Norway model right now, and then we will negotiate further". Norway is not in the EU but abides by its rules. There would be no logistical barriers. Then, being out, the UK could calmly and incrementally change that agreement by mutual consent over the years and decades. Instead, we got a catastrophic negotiating path.
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@Dnain
You mean like Scotland plans to do when it gains its Independence?
You mean like the Scottish First Minister has been calling for since the Brexit vote?
Not a chance, Westminster never listens to Scotland, especially when its a good idea. The more rabid Brexiteers simply wouldn't have it.
Britain voted for a clean break, not a self-serving “backstop” to protect May. The EU is doomed though its politicians still feast on its carcass. Make a break for it, Britain, and escape while you still can!
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@Tiger shark that is silly. Britain voted without having any idea about what they were voting for or against because they were fed a massive misinformation campaign. I just visited the UK and much like the USA, their rural old white people showed just how out of touch they are with the indisputable truth that a modern society flourishes with a diversity of backgrounds and freedom of thought. Alas they are doomed to suffer far longer that we are as our national nightmare is half way over, theirs will last decades.
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@Tiger sharkThe EU is not finished at all. In fact it is the value for many exchanges and politics in the future of the world. Ecology, fiscal fraud, Health care. Only the treachers are jumping out.
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No Britain did not vote for a clean break. Older, white, insular and xenophobics and ill informed voted for "cake and eat it". Many have since died off and a vote to Remain is the favoured option.
There is no wisdom in shooting yourself in the economic foot. This is the deal that Mrs May is bringing back to parliament. A blind Brexit.
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I am skeptical that any deal will be reached. I suspect votive candles for the Brexit referendum success were lit in Brussels when it was announced. Here was a chance to get rid of a nuisance that never had more than one leg the tent, was constantly demanding special treatment, and a chance to show any other waverers that life outside the the EU would be not bed of roses. There is nothing worse for a team than a player who thinks they are special. So the EU decided to shoot the deserter as a punishment and to discourage others. Of course being diplomats they EU negotiators have two faces, the public be nice to the UK, but behind the scenes realizing that a Britain more prosperous outside the EU than in, would be a disaster for unity. Mrs. May was a great help, a politician so incompetent that she fritted away a parliamentary majority and locked herself in a box over the Irish border and lost the key. Any attempt to go back on her word about the border would be further evidence of Albion's perfidy. The EU realize that she can't get any deal through Parliament and now pretend like they are playing nice. There's talk of another referendum but one side can't decide to un-divorce and the conditions the EU would place to resurrect the marriage would likely be unacceptable to Britain.
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Out of this quagmire, I still have to hope that our leaders outside of the Tory party will get their act together and fight for our nation. This debacle has been allowed to drift for far too long. You are correct to state incompetence but I would also add Mrs May's lack of strategic vision. She's a complete nightmare; intransigent, partisan, opaque and unwilling to build alliances. This week we will hear more of the spin and how it's a good deal as it's the "Will of the people". Excuse me as I reach for the sick bucket. There is no deal better than being in the EU and I darn well want to stay whilst banishing these Tory naysayers from ever being in a position to represent our nation again.
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@Michael Feely. I too think this agreement will not make it through the Commons. As for the ‘people’s vote’ (I have lit a candle too that this will be the only way to solve the huge problems the Tory’s have fostered on us) I can’t see the Conservatives agreeing as it will be the final capitulation for them and saving face is everything to them.
It all goes to show how countries get the leaders they deserve!
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@Robin Le Breton or more likely the ones that Putin props up.
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It amazes me that nearly all discussion concerning Brexit has been focused on economic issues. November 11th was the 100th anniversary of the armistice that ended WWI. The day that marked the end of the War To End All Wars was merely a momentary pause before events were set in motion that would lead to WWII. Winston Churchill favored the eventual creation of a United States of Europe as a means of preventing any more of the wars had ravaged Europe for centuries. It's not all about accounting Sometimes you have to do more than follow the money.
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@writeon1 WWIII it is!
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@writeon1 yes you are right. I was going to write that.
My great uncle got a gun strike from a british soldier to throw a french guy out of a boat at Dunkerque. He was then prisonner of war 6 years in Prussia. . Always hated the British. Now I live in the US since 35 years . I get it.
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@writeon1 If you don’t grasp the economic impact of Brexit, you’re truly uneducated. Consider Northern Ireland, the economic front line of Brexit. Any Brexit difficulties would decimate a large part of it, considering how much cross-Border trade and partnerships there are. And I should know - I’m in The Big Shmoke of Dublin, But I’m from a Border town and area. The tariffs and difficulties that a no-deal Brexit presents would decimate farming communities, with the knock-on impact hitting all the local sectors that are directly tied to them. And, if you don’t grasp how economic difficulties inflame tension and division, increasing strife and resentments, then it would seem that You have learned little from some of the lessons of the First World War.
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No more Great Britain. When Northern Ireland and Scotland peel away, it will be Sort-of-Big England.
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@Diane England itself is divided. At least the Scots and Irish have an option.
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@Diane Britain has lost its 'Great' before WWII although Britons still believe there is still a British Empire.
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@Georges, No we don't.
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Why is it apparently inconceivable to hold a second referendum on Brexit?
I get the impression that the vote would go differently if it was held today.
I don't have a dog in this fight... I live "across the pond" where we have our own problems. :)
But I do believe that Britain would be better off remaining in the EU. Just sayin'.
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Remainers didn’t want to have a vote. Now that they lost they want a do-over.
LEAVE MEANS LEAVE.
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@Charles - ah, the old "saying it in all caps makes a sensible way to do something easy"
From what I've been reading, the Brexit that was promised back in the leadup to the vote was kind of a pie-in-the-sky thing where Britain gets to exclude furriners, do what their most conservative types want to do, and still not face any difficulty in keeping economic relations with their biggest trading partner on a smooth basis.
Reminds me of years ago when some Staten Islanders, angry at being part of NYC, said they were going to have a vote to leave, and it would be great, and they'd join NJ, and all these dreams.
Then NJ said "no, thanks, not interested" and NYC said "OK, but you'll have to pay millions and millions to us for some infrastructure before you go".
End of Staten Island's grand blunder at independence. They ended it before any bridges were burned. We'll see how parts of Great Britain do.
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@Charles
Brexiters always campaigned on the idea that Brexit meant that Britain could leave the EU (mainly abandoning their obligations and responsibilities to the EU) but keep all of the parts of the EU that they liked (free trade, free movement, etc). What they do not want to face is that a hard break will be a disaster for the UK economically. If leave means leave, follow article 50, pay the piper, and float away.
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The majority of the people in the North of Ireland voted to remain as part of Europe. They have the most to lose in Brexit. It's not at all clear to me that Northern Ireland is part of the UK.
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@CatherineL
The formal definition of the UK.... "The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Island".
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@Lee
...subject to review at any time.
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For reference, the House of Commons has 650 total members, so that group of 50 pro-Brexiteers is 1/13 of the total. That doesn't sound like much, but in a divided assembly, it could be crucial.
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What has disappeared from the discussion - the vote was for Parliament to consider, not that it was bound to act on. (sorta like the forgetting who originally funded and got the ball rolling with Fusion GPS. ) The media prefers to sell papers rather than focus on the signal amidst the noise leading to the notion that it was a binding referendum.
suffering the consequences in LDN.
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British polls now show that most Brits want to stay in the Union. Most Brits do not want Brexit (http://tinyurl.com/y7rb7vnh)
The 2016 economic conditions that motivated a small majority of interest in Brexit have been significantly addressed already without Brexit. That is, the economy has improved markedly.
If one compares (1) the actual British issues remaining that earlier motivated Brexit and (2) the incredible degree of problems caused by the prospect of actually leaving the EU, it seems quite compellingly obvious that:
(A) Pro-Brexit Brits in 2016 didn’t realize what Brexit actually would involve; and
(B) A new referendum is required.
Going ahead with Brexit—no matter what the agreement with the EU is—when a majority of Brits no longer want it is absurd—and unjust.
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@gary e. davis. That's right, they had no idea what they were voting for, and the different camps didn't tell them. It's entirely possible that *no one* knew what it would take, but it should have be clear at least that unraveling a decades-old set of agreements and thousands of entrenched practices wouldn't be easy.
Brexit is a shining example of the abuse of referendum power, and the cowardice of the Cameron government to punt on the subject of the EU. A simple-minded yes-no decision on a highly complex matter should not be left to the voters until terms are known, if then.
But I'm not sure a new referendum would be helpful.
You can't un-ring a bell, and the Brexit bell has been well and truly rung.
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@gary e. davis
" the economy has improved markedly."
But we were told over and over by Remainers that a Leave vote would bring economic catastrophe.
What will Remainers be wrong about next?
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@Stevenz
"they had no idea what they were voting for"
The British government controls public education and most of its broadcast news media. The BBC in particular were skewed sharply in favour of Remain. Still, Leave won.
I'd say that despite layers of government propaganda, the people knew exactly what they were voting for.
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There is no way that this deal will obtain the support of the UK Parliament. Theresa May - or her successor, as she's already looking like a busted flush - will have to go back to the EU to obtain a better deal. Personally, I'm hoping for a referendum which enables the country to come to its senses and remain in the EU. Anything else will do untold damage and lead to the breakup of the UK. NYT readers already know the scale of the threat posed by these nihilist populists.
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@Monterey Seaotter - Agree 100%. The timing of all this is so crucial. Tensions are rising due to other wildfires (both literal and figurative) thanks to the foolhardy actions of so-called populist leaders around the world. The time to stem this is now, before another world war breaks out.
Of those populist leaders, the worst in no particular order: DJT, May, Netanyahu, Erdogan, Orban, the whole 5-Star movement in Italy, and yes, the dynamic duo, Kurz/Strache in Austria.
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@Monterey Seaotter
A majority of people who voted for Brexit have to "come to their senses" do they? A lot of people I know in the North of England are getting nothing from the EU except for 20% VAT (although what value was added is questionable) which was handed over to unelected Eurocrats.
Why don't you ask them why they voted to leave rather than say they are out of their minds?
The EU exports far more to the UK than it imports so all these threats from Europe to no longer do business with the UK post Brexit seem somewhat stupid from Europe's perspective.
It couldn't be that the EU is afraid that their scam is being revealed could it?
@Monterey Seaotter
I agree it is unlikely it will obtain the support of parliament.
However Mrs May's successor is unlikely to get a better deal since they will probably be an arch Brexiteer who has spent the past two years calling the EU names.
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As someone who does not have a dog in this fight I would have hoped that the powers that be in the EU had done more to reform the EU in light of the British vote to exit.
For starters they could have slashed an arrogant, bloated bureaucracy that seems to glory in defying the most trivial definitions of food and drink. They could have punished Hungary's and Poland's leadership for their drift into fascism. They could have had a more coordinated and unified stance for dealing with a flood of refugees. It could have had a more humane response to the debt crisis in Southern Europe and less arrogance in dealing with the budget proposed by the elected government of Italy. Germany's overweening power in the EU could have been curbed.
The lack of a central bank like the Federal Reserve will eventually doom the EU. It is too bad for the original idea was great.
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@Edward Blau
No, the EU couldn’t have done all those things because the EU is not the United States of Europe. It is a body that governs business, legal and, yes, social relationships among its members by using a polder model of consultation and mutual agreement.
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Oh, Great Britain, you are so going to regret your vote for Brexit as time marches forward. What a shortsighted vote.
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No more than America is going to regret its vote to elect Trump.
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@jtf123 "Will" regret? We've been regretting for 2.5 years...
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@Sneeral Trump is temporary, Brexit is permanent.
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Before the Brexit it is time for a EUturn vote.
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@Sutter Great idea and hashtag, Sutter. Time for a #EUturn
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It's probably giving the PM too much credit, but I wondered if "worse than membership" was not by accident, but design. Unable politically to call for a Second Referendum, Mrs May, who campaigned, albeit half-hearted, for Remain, might have just slyly given ammunition to those hoping for a so-called People's Vote on the terms of final deal on offer, with options for No Deal and Remain.
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@Prince Asbo I'm not really convinced that giving the British another vote with the option, 'no deal' is a good idea. A vassal state? that doesn't sound too bad. Sign me up.
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@Philip Oh god do you really think no deal would win? It's a terrifying thought but I haven't really entertained it...
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@Philip I agree that No Deal is a dangerous proposition; alas, similar danger didn't stop the initial 'non-binding' Referendum, run counter to EU protocol, from happening. Perhaps lessons have been learned.
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...and the next week or so is going to be a veritable panoply of political in-fighting, intrigue, posturing, bloviating, possibly a few resignations, maybe a collapse of government and a leadership contest and perhaps even dissolution and a new election timetabled before Christmas. Steady, boys.
The ‘deal’ is only part of it. It must pass the Cabinet, pass the Commons and pass the EU27. General informed opinion suggests it is almost certainly going to collapse at steps (1) and/or (2).
Hopefully we might also see the Tory Party tear itself apart and dissolve as a political force, or render itself unelectable. One can but hope! It’s the few causes for optimism there are now.
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« Worse than membership... »
Exactly. The only way to prove the hollowness of a populist proposal is by trying hard to implement it. Well done Mrs. May. Now to the people to decide more informed than before.
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