Douthat writes: "... those Trump-Obama switchers were more likely to express racially conservative attitudes ...." What, I wonder, is a "racially conservative attitude?" Is birtherism and bigotry (coded as "anti-immigration") simply a "conservative" point of view?
And will Trump's efforts to bring back outmoded, Industrial Age blue-collar jobs (which were not taken by immigrants but by more efficient, less-costly machinery and technology) actually help workers? Not likely. He may as well pledge to bring back millions of lost blacksmithing jobs.
Some economists say the best thing for our economy would be to let in millions of immigrants to super-charge the labor force. So, whether it's race or economics, Trump charges blindly ahead with his head on backwards.
34
Or maybe it's so much simpler than this. Many voters are fed up by the oligarchic nature of the government, even if they couldn't actually spell oligarchy or define it, and voted for Trump just because he was obviously not part of the establishment and looked willing to break stuff. Many Americans think things need to be broken, simply as an expression of legitimate fear and frustration.
But Trump ended up just being one of the oligarchs, and far more odious than some Trump voters expected to boot. His behavior doesn't surprise me in the least. I never expected anything better from him. But the sentiment that "he won't act that way in the Oval Office" seemed to be fairly widespread. Trump has disappointed and disgusted too many of his voters and we are seeing the result. I have to wonder why they expected anything else but some folks need to learn the hard way.
46
People say the Democrats have no platform, no path to retake the White House, the house of the people, in 2020. Five years earlier, a TV celebrity and real estate developer highjacked part of a legendary Ronald Reagan speech to put a red hat on almost half of America’s voters: “Make America Great Again.”
The 2012 Republican platform put American exceptionalism into the first line of its preamble, but Donald Trump turned it from a dog whistle into a bullhorn that painted opponents as un-American when he ran for and became the president.
Marketing genius never needs to rely on the truth. The Pillsbury Doughboy is still alive 53 years after a senior writer, Rudy Perz, created him at the ad agency, Leo Burnett, in Chicago.
Political slogans embrace propaganda, misinformation, deception. Occasionally, in the words of Leo Burnett, for whom I once worked, they “reach for the stars.” They touch the truth.
When they do, a political slogan can become a platform in which people follow. So here’s mine, for the Democrats, two words.
SAVE DEMOCRACY.
30
*Headline*...
"A defeat for white-identity"...except it turns out that white identity didn't have much to do with anything.
Here's an aspect of the last election Russ appears not to have considered--some people are not white! And some of those other people (non-white) are--gasp!--working-class. And some of them also experience economic angst. In fact, the average net worth of non-whites is about 1/10 that of their white counterparts.
So--what's going on? Why didn't black and Latino voters vote for Trump en masse when their economic problems are greater than those of white working-class voters? Why were they not thrilled with the promise of much better medical care for everyone, and infrastructure! and jobs, jobs, jobs?
Is it because minority voters are much more astute and recognized that Trump's promises would be replaced by tax cuts for the rich, attempts to repeal the ACA, dismantling of the EPA, the Interior, the State Dept, Dept. of Education, etc.?
Or could there possibly be some other reason...?.
23
Don't read too much into local races.
Ohio did not swing back to the Democrats
and in some Pennsylvania Districts there was
no one running against the Democrat and so the
vote total was skewed.
Neither Wisconsin or Iowa moved deeply into the
Democratic Camp
and whatever the outcome of Florida/Georgia
the Democrats will only squeak out a win at best.
As for Immigration -
can someone explain how Immigration helps
Poor Americans ?
19
This article should not have been written without some attention to Bernie Sanders, who clearly set aside identity politics and focused on economic justice. He was obviously the most positively energizing candidate out there. While I supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries, I realize now that was a mistake. What we need is a candidate who is able to forego the identity politics that are resulting in so much useless extremism on both sides, and instead focus on platforms that unite people on the basis of economic concerns. The emergence of Right wing white nationalism, and Left wing white male demonizing, will doom us to a political pendulum of identity versus identity, back and forth, back and forth. Instead we need figures like Sanders (whom, we should notice, never promoted himself as potentially "the first Jewish President") who clearly offered a platform that generated enormous energy across age groups and socioeconomic levels. Ditch the identity politics on both sides and this nation can return to one that has less anger and more legitimate debate about the issues related to employment, pay, healthcare, and education which affect all of us.
331
@tintin I and many many other poc vehemently disagree with your assessment of Sanders. "Setting aside identity politics" is pure privilege, and acting as though there's some other, more "real" politics to be undertaken instead (not in addition to) is reprehensible. I found him utterly demoralizing.
54
@AnnaT If you run on identity politics you'll lose. You can feel virtuous and righteous, but you'll lose. If you run on issues that are meaningful for all "identities," you might win. And if you win, you might be able to minimize---maybe someday even eliminate---the effects of discrimination. While the left argues about privilege, the GOP laughs all the way to the bank.
90
@tintin
Bernie is just a chimera.
He was not less hated than Hillary because he “shunned” identity politics.
He was less hated because he did not win the Democratic nomination and so...was not a threat to the GOP.
Had he won - he would have been taken down by the GOP even more easily than Gore or Kerry.
84
I am so tired of discussions (not meaning Ross, necessarily, but a great many comments here) that frame every issue in terms of the White Voter, or the Black Voter, or the Gay voter, or the This or That voter.
Does it ever occur to anyone that it is possible for a politician or political party to think in terms of the AMERICAN voter? Affordable healthcare isn't a white/black issue, it's an American issue. A workable immigration policy isn't a Latino issue, it's an American issue. Equal rights isn't a LGBT issue, economic opportunity isn't a Working Person issue, and infrastructure isn't a Commuter issue. They are American issues.
Supporting policy X doesn't require being against demographic group Y. It is possible to consider what is best for the country as a whole. Maybe I just naive, but I think that some elected officials actually do think that way.
310
@ImagineMoments
You know when there was an "American voter"?
December 8, 1941, November 23, 1963 and September 12, 2001.
Notice how any other time, "health care" is only an issue for those who can't afford it, and economic opportunity is only an issue for those not earning enough?
The truth is that most of the time, we are divided, and not just by demographics or physical traits, but by all sort of various *interests*. That's what Madison called them.
And basically every issue you mentioned creates interests with their different stakes in that given issue.
The founding father believed that those who could consider what is best for the whole were "virtuous", and should be our leaders. They had their doubts about most people though.
And seems like their thinking was just about right, wasn't it?
65
@ImagineMoments
You make sense, but there is a problem. If a politician does what you suggest, all the leaders of those identity groups react as if the politician had announced a policy to shun that group's interests in favor of something else. For a party built on identity politics, it's hard to get past that.
14
Point well made! The racial divide constantly stoked by the NYT is real enough, but small in numbers compared to it's intensity. We are Americans first and have a certain fairness factor built into our DNA. It is the extremes that gets attention but not votes.
20
The case for privileging race rather than economics in Trumpian populism does not depend on studies of voter attitudes, but rather on Trump's policies. He failed to repeal Obamacare, but is still attacking it in other ways, with lawsuits and cuts in funding. There is no infrastructure bill, or increase in the minimum wage. The general economic prosperity is a continuation of what was happening under Obama.
Trump's populism consists mainly of gestures -- decreasing immigration, jawboning individual industries or factories, getting rid of regulations, feuding with our trading partners -- that sound good to his base. Reality is that reversing the decline of declining areas is complex, and Trump does not do this sort of complexity; his specialty is gestures rather than follow-up.
His populist gestures were to get him elected, and nothing more. To really go populist, he would have to work with Democrats against Republicans, and that would splinter his base. He would also have to turn to elite experts for advice on what would work and what had been tried and failed.
His base accepts advertising gestures and slogans as real and shuns other reality. But worries about medical bills are much harder to ignore than global warming, and gestures and slogans do not work very well in this area.
His identity politics is white male identity politics, and it is losing him women of all colors. This is very good news indeed.
243
@sdavidc9 - I voted for Trump because I thought he could actually get something done and in particular, among other things, address illegal immigration. He is obnoxious but I held my nose thinking that his goal was to be a great American president and we needed one. But the very day after his election, Democrats were protesting and began "resisting." That kept me with Trump. I felt that that was truly obnoxious. And it is "elided" (ha! had to look that one up!) by the fact of your statement, "His base accepts advertising gestures and slogans as real and shuns other reality." This is the attitude that drives me back to Trump, again and again. Sigh.
15
@sdavidc9:Read in the Florida recount were the Democratic lawyers for Nelson and Gillum objected to a non citizens vote. He has not succeeded in items you mentioned yes but at least he has tried. Now candidate Obama promised to end wars but instead restarted and new ones in Yemen and Libya. Do you care at all about the 10 wars we are in right now?. Guess nobody cares because there are almost no casualties while we spread death and destruction using drone technology.
10
@Alex
Getting things done demands dealing with details, and Trump is incapable of doing this and unwilling to try. He lies constantly, and that is a fact.
Republican attitudes towards Obama were equally obnoxious.
Democrats were upset by a president who lied to get elected, trashed Obama to curry favor with racists, disrespected women, and exhibited very little understanding of how our government works. If there was truth in these things, they had every reason and right to resist him. If there was as little truth in them as there was in claiming that Obama was not born in Hawaii, then they have none.
You seem to be choosing what is real on the basis of attitudes, and that is backwards. Dubya tried it in Iraq, and it didnt work; no sales pitch made our Iraq adventure successful, although it created an illusion that lasted long enough to get dubya reelected. You should begin by deciding what is real (Trump's competence, for example, in anything other than projecting images, where he is a master) and letting that determine your attitudes.
62
The election is over.I voted for democrats down the line. Some of the races have not been called yet but there were wins and losses.The democrats won most of the key races, by huge margins The local assemblywoman is a republican. She won again though not by a big margin. I opposed her, voting for the democrat.The freeways in our district are in poor shape after I have paid many tens of thousands in federal,state local and property taxes for years.She just planted her signs all over people's lawns.Her democratic opponent should have won.The issues in california's voters minds, besides a despicable trump, his total incompetence and destructive policies include prescription and health care costs that keep rising, homelessness and cleanliness in san francisco(there have been reports of excrement),and i saw a homeless person's tent in front of the oakland court just months ago, the worsening and even brutal traffic because of a strong state economy, unaffordable homes and high rent, wildfires and climate change, gun violence and safety, rising education costs,rising interest rates impacting home and car loans,the threat of inflation,rising taxes due to the SALT limit, and rising student tuition and debt.California's voters passed propositions to eliminate daylight savings time, banned the sale of meat and eggs from animals confined in small pens and cages,funded housing for veterans, for homeless and low income people, and for renovating childrens hospitals,and kept a gas tax.
5
I guess Canadians, Australians and New Zealanders must be great racists. Because they have strict immigration enforcement. Oh, and double the immigration intake as a percent of population as the USA.
13
Paul, the memo from the New York Times stated specifically, and emphatically, that only White, Male, Republicans (and Make Democrats, but they embrace that label and ask forgiveness for their errant ways) can be racists. And according to them, Australia is like a paradise because of the strict gun laws. But don't mention the treatment of the aborigines. Or what they do with illegal aliens, they won't even let them come ashore.
5
Race, schmace. The Trump one trick pony marketing has got old, fast, and it's not keeping up because it can't. White they may be, but there's not a trace of human reality in that image. Consider - There's a sudden surge of people who come out of the woodwork calling themselves patriots after whole lives of total political inactivity. They show up at rallies waving merchandise, and that's pretty much it.
Call that an "identity"? People who clearly have no idea what they're talking about suddenly yelling their heads off passionately? They aren't an identity, they're a lot of cookie cutter images, no more, no less. Ever seen the paid scripted trolls on social media, or the jobbers waving the same old pitches? Same demographic, sure, but you could say that about Walmart shoppers. No "identity" required. In fact, it'd get in the way.
These aren't people who've spent decades in deep commitment to anything or anyone. They're the political tourist buses in Vegas, or some hackneyed trip to Coney Island. As for populism, it's more like peer group conformity, in its most primitive form. Show up, yell, get paid, wait for the next photo op.
The sheer superficiality of this mob mentality may be too badly defined for NYT's conscientious and highly analytical writers, but for marketing, it's plain as day. This is what you call an "instant market". You don't go looking for a real market, you make one out of whatever's handy and sell to that. All else follows.
11
It is way more simple than any and everything I have read for the last 2 years. Obama ran in 2008 as an appropriate rejection of all things Bush-Cheney, and most importantly of all, to end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. A platform of repudiation of the insane excesses of neo-con interventionism and the national security state. Instead of delivering, he continued Iraq and Afghanistan his entire 8 years, ending his presidency with shameful distinction of longest wartime president in US history. And expanded the neo-con interventionism in Libya & Syria. And expanded the national security state, reauthorizing the Patriot Act & bringing no consequences after John Brennan's lies & James Clapper's lies. To top it off, Democrats nominated the war hawk candidate, Hillary. So voters of all stripes who had been voting Democrat for years had reason to switch in 2016.
On immigration, Trump's policies have been identical to recommendations of Pres. Clinton's Bipartisan Commission on Immigration Reform, led by African-American, Democratic Congresswoman Barbara Jordan. Civil rights icon Ms. Jordan was not a racist. She was an American who foresaw labor changes to NAFTA & knew negative impacts of illegal immigration. Another reason for Obama voters to switch.
Finally, Obama's 2008 campaign was not based on critical race theory; cultural Marxism; or postmodernism, but during his 2nd term, many of his policies became all about this. 3rd reason for Obama voters to switch.
12
@GRH. He left Iraq on schedule. Stop conveniently misremembering.
7
The Republican Party, pre-Trump was the party of me. The Democratic Party has long been the party of us. Since Trump took over the Republican Party, it has become the party of, look what they are doing to me. Because of the mentality of those that choose to identify as Republicans, it is much easier to influence them with the politics of fear and division. While the democrats made gains in the house and some republicans finally realized the danger of Trump’s demagoguery and the racism at the core of his message, Republican gains in the senate suggest that many in this country still respond to Trump’s message. They are still saying “look what they are doing to me.” Those who at their core believe that their immediate needs supersede the needs of the many, the long term needs of the country and the world as a whole will continue to buy into Trump’s brand of populism. This kind of selfishness has always been at the core of Republican ideology. Trump has found a way to capitalize on it and white identity politics are not going anywhere anytime soon.
10
I would go a lot further than to call the midterm election results as being simply a defeat for white identity politics. It is the beginning of the end for right of center conservative politics which over time has evolved into a dangerous rhetoric in support of supremacist movements, minority bashing and a deliberate attempt to claw back America from what is being increasingly portrayed as a minority invasion.
There are a number of players in this dangerous movement who took some losses- some individual such as Rupert Murdoch, Robert Mercer, Sheldon Adelson, some entities such as Fox News, the Christian Coalition, the Evangelist groups, the NRA and of course the GOP and Trump. Trump is simply an adept warden trying to synthesize and conduct a whole movement being sought by all the above. They were seeking a figurehead that could deliver their rhetoric effectively to a wide swath of people and Trump simply arrived at the right moment as a catalyst.
The defeat is delivered to them, not Trump. Trump is simply a thug who in time might very well end up in prison for tax evasion, blackmail, election fraud and a lot more. The movement started by the grass roots Dems will lose steam if they think and focus solely on Trump. Focus instead on undoing the damage being done to America by the various individuals and entities. The damage to Trump and the GOP will then simply arrive as a natural consequence of that focused objective.
17
I thank President Macron for his speech comemmerating Armistice Day and reminding the world of what Nationalism wrought 100 years ago and the rise again in 2018 in the presence of Trump.
Nothing good will come of it except the prolonged death of Democracy with the words...."Malice towards none and Charity to All", fading and obsolete from our American culture.
10
"Trump's deliberate race-baiting had an activating effect on white anxiety"? "White tribalism"? Come on Ross, call it what it is: racism, pure and simple. And what these anxious whites really are: racists.
Not once could Ross use the terms "racism" and "racists" in describing the ism and character of Trump's unwavering supporters. Why? I suspect it's more useful to avoid the obviousness and odiousness of the millions of Americans who still cling to base beliefs of so many "great" Americans who before them fought, lynched, segregated and otherwise discriminated and denied basic human rights of those with African-American blood and/or black skin.in order to retain their enslavement and political and social inferiority.
6
He garnered the electoral votes because he appealed to the racist views of the non-educated. Nothing more, nothing less.
17
It is irresponsible to characterize Trump's lies about " immigrant crime, Muslim terrorism and urban voter fraud" as "exaggerations," which implies that Trump is simply blowing legitimate concerns out of proportion. Even if we grant that "Muslim terrorism" is an issue Trump grasps to any substantive degree, immigrant crime is not a real issue. Immigrants offend at lower rates than native-born citizens. Nor are claims about "urban voter fraud" exaggerations, but rather they are outright fabrications. While racist voter suppression has been blatant, there is zero evidence to support the claim that vote fraud is a measurable problem.
Douthat may be trying to take a "fair" and "balanced" tone, but in fact his mealy-mouthed writing serves to legitimate Trump's outrageous claims, and leaves Douthat as one more sucker who has been duped into advancing Trump's outrageous claims. No writer should shrink from stating what is plainly true: Trump is telling lies to excite his base's hysterical racist paranoia.
13
Mr. Douthat's apologist slant has finally dressed up the very White House to appear less ignorant. The last election, allow me to suggest, was about promises on the campaign trail. We now have a better understanding of "I'm a nationalist". You know, Mr. Douthat, there are big fans of your theology among people of color because we don't all vote D, all the time. Some of us are conservatives like you. The problem with the last election, results pending, is some of us still read.
1
Thank you, Mr. Douthat. Some thoughts:
I am not a
(1) sociologist
(2) economist
(3) political science expert.
Which is why I found your column a little hard to follow. Not your fault--mine. Sorry.
About Mr. Trump--and his showing in 2016. And Mr. Obama's showing in 2112. And the Democrat's showing this past week.
Might some simpler explanation be at work? Which is not to slight these intricate studies of class and per capita income and people's attitudes to black people--or white people--or Hispanics.
What I'm getting at is--
--the man is a crook. A boor. A liar.
Numbers of people (I believe) voted for Mr. Trump knowing full well what sort of man he was. They wore no blinkers, I'm afraid. Some of them admitted--in so many words--well yes, the man IS a narcissist. Yes, the man DOES have some problems with probity and veracity.
But (said a good friend a few months back) he is also--a businessman. He knows what it's like for business nowadays. He sympathizes with us--sort of.
And don't forget--that tiny, miniscule cadre of people who really ENJOY being boorish. They LIKE louts. Some of 'em are themselves louts--and lout calleth unto lout. (To paraphrase the Psalms.)
They're there. Don't deny it.
But the point is: for many people, it's gotten old. The thrill is gone. It's the same old stuff--
--day after day--
--month after month.
People want a change. Last week--
--they started getting one.
Hope it continues.
8
Ross observes that the "white nationalism" explanation for Trump's election "implicitly places those voters beyond the reach of reason — even when they voted for Barack Hussein Obama four short years before.
In my experience, few of them have any interest whatsoever in listening to reasoned arguments or engaging in rational debate.Mostly, it's all about calling people they disagree with "libtards" and "making liberals cry."
But neither the white nationalism nor economic populism gets to the heart of the matter of why Trump is President. The environment in which a Trump could be elected president was cynically created over nearly four decades by a Republican Party that somehow thought it could exploit evangelical votes in middle America for their vote, while containing their influence rest of the time. Reagan's so-called "11th Commandment" ("Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican") , may have been an effective way to maintain party unity, but it also deprived the TOP of any ability to identify and call out bad, toxic ideas. The failure by GOP politicians and pundits to call out the excesses of the party's lunatic fringe helped to foster a perception within the party's rank and file that all ideas had equal merit so long as they were promulgated by a conservative.
Buckley and Goldwater understood what Reagan did not: that in moving ever rightward, one eventually leaves conservatism and crosses the line into radicalism.
And so hte party's lunatic fringe
4
A little sloppy here, Mr. Douthat:
"Racial backlash against the first black president was more limited in 2016 because Romney didn't play to racial fears..."
Sorry, but Romney had no role in 2016, you meant 2012.
4
I would take a different view of the analysis and vote.
1. Trump did not deliver on his financial and job promises and his policies are not benefiting mid west farmers and workers. They had animosity toward both parties and Trump (forever the con man) promised he would be different than what came before (and he has been)
2. Trump took his racial animosity to a degree that offended a portion of the Obama to Trump voters. He pushed the rhetoric into "Nazi" type area, more pre Kristallnacht.
3. Many Trump voters were first time or returning voters who had been absent or felt they had no one to vote for until Trump came along.
4. Educated women hate Trump, pure and simple. He is continuing and will continue to fan this hate.
5. Pundits, the media, and many politicians do not accept or realize the USA is a center-left country. Majority support SSA, Medicare, and Medicaid, healthcare insurance for all, and vote in national elections majority Democrat over the years. This group, the majority abhor Trump, his politics, personal life, and the belief of his true followers
7
Douthat is sympathetic to White Nationalism, but he can’t say so. So, his argument basically boils down to this: If you voted for Barack Obama then you can’t be a racist. He forgets that many Nazis before they embraced Nazism were friendly to Jews in Germany. They were not Nazi then. They became Nazi only after Hitler came to power. These White OK- Working Class, the petit bourgeoisie, who were latent or nascent racists required to hear the dog whistle directly from Trump to openly vote on the basis of his racist agenda. Racism like anything else is not a constant factor. It mutates and germinates and flourishes in conducive climate. We have a resurgence of racism in America (led by Trump) and in Europe, the birthplace of racism.
8
The NY Times never tires of attacking Whites. I don't get it - whats wrong with you people? The democrats have become the party of elitists. Funded by Hollywood and Wall St. and brainwashing our kids on campus. I am proud to be white privilaged conservative generous open-minded. I left the democratic party years ago - hypocrites.
18
Kinda confused on this "white identity". Does it come with papers like a purebred dog. Who is pure "white". Mixture is so ubiquitous......
5
Read "How the Irish Became White" by Noel Ignatiev. In America, it's always been in the interest of poor whites to ally with other poor people, but they always get sucked into the vortex of a racial identification with the ruling elite, and tricked into doing the bidding of the wealthy.
And villainizing the immigrant is a historical maneuver. In the 1870s, a man named Denis Kearney went around California saying economic depression was not the fault of the wealthy, but the Chinese immigrant, and the Chinese immigrant was a low figure, borne of low character, and a threat to the white man. Meanwhile it was the wealthiest citizens gobbling up the capital that was causing the problems. But the politicians found it all too easy to work the white voter into a state of hysteria over the alien other, the threat, the cause of their problems, the stain on this great nation. Sound familiar?
10
The fear of white voters is that the demographic is changing in our country. And it will continue to change. While many of these voters are without a college degree they are intelligent enough to know that one day they will be clearly not in the majority .
Fighting the tide of a global economy and a diverse world will ultimately be futile for this president as it will for any other who succeeds him .
And fighting this with a form of neo fascism will result in a country that will more closely resemble The Third Reich than any America we have ever known .
3
"Racial backlash against the first black president was more limited in 2016 because Romney didn't play to racial fears"--I assume you mean 2012?
And while you're editing, "strictly-racial" is not a word, nor is "social-science." No, not even as adjectives.
Trump openly approves of people who literally carry swastikas. You don't get to be "indifferent" to that, and still consider yourself a human being.
7
Trump is a liar and a racist. His most dangerous character trait is that of supporting fascism.
I don’t understand what his current crop of white rural working class supporters see in this person.
He doesn’t support or believe in this group of people even if he says he does.
He is a rich, powerful person who has facist leanings and is nothing like his supporters.
5
What does racially conservative mean.
5
@DC
Racist.
7
As a historian, I get nervous whenever a populist comes to power, because the ultimate populist was Adolf Hitler. Whatever you think of Hitler, pervert and maniac that he was, still he was the greatest political genius in history. Hitler convinced one of the most cultured and intelligent societies on earth to go to war with just about every other country on Earth. He did this by convincing the German people that they were the master race , and that he was the human personification of destiny. In other words he sold them a fairy tale.
When populists come to power logic as well as compassion flies out the window. People put their trust in a fellow flawed human being over government itself. In just about every example of a demagogue leading a nation the result has been absolute disaster.
Our founding fathers did all they could do to limit the powers of the Presidency with checks and balances but we have come to the proverbial fork in the road when changing demographics have altered the perceptions of many white Americans. It is a shame that a man came along who cared more about power than people, he took advantage of the National mood and a flaw in our system of governance known as the electoral college to gain ultimate power. And since Trump has no other message save might makes right, and his only message is to beware illegal immigrants he stands on the summit with no way down, hated by the very America he loved most. Fitting for a man who loves so few.
6
California is the representation of America's rigid mindset. A society stuck inside a Cold War. Complete with a Rock Curtain(iron curtain) called the Sierra Nevada Mountains....locking California into armed camp, fed endless propaganda about the other side of that wall.....evil racist, non-diverse, immigrant hatin, gun-totin America....all while Californians get poorer, unhealthier, water starved, while living next to the world's largest ocean, building high speed rail lines to "create jobs"(Andre Cocesceu Communist Dictator style). Now due to the dominance of Silicon Valley Robber Barons and Hollywood Billionaires this mindset can be exported around the world thru the Tammany Hall style connections of the DNC Corporation.....
2
Once you have:
Filled out the numerous,exhaustive applications
Gathered the required supporting materials
Attended appointments at a US Consulate
Undergone a Homeland Security interview
Had a thorough medical exam
Attended a biometric screening appointment
Accept financial responsibility for five years (no government assistance to immigrant)
Waited for the process to play out for a year and a half.
And finally were granted a visa to come to the US, it is really completely offensive to be labeled racist for suggesting that people that don’t want the hassle of all that paperwork and all that waiting should just be able to waltz across the border illegally.
You call me racist and I know you are a dolt.
8
More white males voted Republican
More white identity
More male identity
More white nationalism
More white entitlement
More white fear
More rage
More guns
More violence
More victimization
1
The people who think that being white qualifies as an achievement are the same people whose number one ambition is to get on disability when they are not really disabled. They slip in grocery stores--professionally. For the settlement money. They look for opportunities to provoke fights in order to have an excuse to pull a gun and kill another person. Their number one fear is being "taken for a sucker" and their number one joy is scamming someone else. They are the exact opposite of the "salt of the earth." They are poison. And Trump speaks to them. Sadly for Trump--and fortunately for the rest of us--this trash is a small minority of white folks in this country.
2
American perception,Trump has said so many things in his life,that until he got elected,no one actually knew what he stood for? What a lie.Your article perpetuates lies.A Republican administration charged Trump with racism in real estate dealings.Donald Trump survived 4 bankruptcies with government bailouts of tax deductions.FOUR!He has been accused of rape & peadophilia, that's aside from a recording claiming to grab women by their genitalia.Giving the voters an excuse for not taking seriously the serious flaws of this President is no excuse. Congress needs to control this pox that is called Trump,for we get less than nothing if we impeach.Box him in, place reigns on his administration, investigate & impeach Kavanaugh for any lies to Congress.Subpoena cabinet members for clarification of what they are perpetrating in secret.The 2018 mid-term elections prove one thing,this is America's country,not some man-child who earned $200,000 at 3 years old.A man-child who looks at Americans as disposable.I cannot wait till January 2021, when charges will be filed against him & his children for perpetuating lies,for emptying American coffers & he cannot pardon anyone.Trump will beg to be impeached way before he leaves office.He will want to avoid prison,but he will throw his family & friends under his limousine.Good Luck Mr. President,America finally knows exactly who & what you are.It took more than 3 years. God bless/save America.P.S.-A Republican Party ever favor workers?
2
Again Douthat waxes poetic for trump, however the hot-melt wax he uses to glue his ideas barely meld such excusees he pens for trump:
"Trump ... his _____ arguments were about _____."
Douthat explains what he claims are trump's arguments.
When anyone claims trump makes reasoned arguments, I know they are pulling very itchy wool over the reader's bloodshot eyes.
Every single day we observe that trump is unnervingly uneducated, and his impressive inability to think while conscious. In his Orange-shaded White House, leakers and wanna-be-leakers agree the man avoids plump sentences, especially coherent ones. He sits alone in the Oval Office, eloquently saying: "Reading is for losers." His attention span stunted by a lifetime of petulant impatience!
He gets his daily intelligence briefings as a massive tweet, unbelievably on an entire Extra-Large 8.5 x 11 inch sheet! The chutzpah of his staffers, to conglomerate a terse mash of words - with a diagram or image or two or ten - to take up precious space so fewer words can make it onto that page. This, done to shelter his concentration from being taxed at a rate too high. His allies and enemies figured out that by putting "ideas" on the air on TV, on nationally syndicated "fake news" shows, they can directly inject their schemes into his brain. During his TV "executive time" he sits for hours, imbibing all esculent Pablum the flickering screen feeds him. Add a burger with that TV remote, and he's a very happy #MAGA man.
1
Ross, this seems a reasonable analysis. But have we gone beyond reason, inspired by Trump and the media name calling and rant? Worse on FOX than CNN by far. Now that the whole discussion has become theater, carnival, Antifa has harrassed Tucker Carlson's home and wife with physical damage and implicit threats of physical attack. Result?
The KKK and White Supremist fascism is inspired.
And Antifa, so called anti-fascists, are now Pro-Fascist,
Pro-fa. They have earned their brown shirts.
Media loves it. On with the carnival and slaughter.
2
It's not "tribalism". It's racism.
1
Ross, why do you care if "Democrats can reach wavering white-working class voters" or not? And why do you agree with Democrats and equate dislike of illegal immigration with racism? I thought you were supposed to be one the Times' conservative opinionators. Have you taken a side job getting votes for Democrats? If so, can we please have an actual conservative on the opinion page?
3
Trump can easily lose in 2020 even with those of us who notice that Fox ten hours ago reported a triple murder by an illegal Mexican released by N.J. while the liberal media are not reporting it today ...e.g. this paper. We tire of both houses of fibs...active fibbers like Trump or by liberal media omission to cover for illegals. But the stock market is virtually flat in a year of great data numbers and that is the 401k et al of everyone. The pensions can sink Trump in 2020...by bigger margins than foreseen. If the dems can point to flat 401’s in 2020, Trump is over.
2
It is shocking that so many whites without a college degree support trump. no country on the planet has spent more on education and literacy in the last century than america. the right wing extremism, racism and fascism incited among these people is the work of highly educated,wealthy and devious individuals who have perverted the system. They study nazi and fascist manuals for techniques that can be applied on a massive scale, to manipulate the minds of uneducated and not very smart people. they analyze how people vote, and what issues they vote on in each county and district. They apply big data models to politics. So a republican in deep red states runs as a racist, xenophobe and islamophobe, for repealing obama care and against abortion. His counterpart in california runs on gas taxes. The purpose of the proposition to repeal the gas tax in california was to get republicans to vote, though the state GOP knew they could not repeal the gas tax. 5 billion was spent on the mid terms, with a lot of intelligence collection on voters, and targeted ads, more than on many presidential elections in the past. The spending was effective or partly effective in some races and ineffective in others.
We're back to square one on race relations in the Trump era.
Looking back to the early sixties, when blacks couldn't sit a a ten cent lunch counter. This was almost one hundred years after the Civil War, which tells us much about race today.
Blacks should give up looking for acceptance.
They should look to take over.
Other countries have had minority rule, like South Africa, or for that matter, the U.S. right now.
1
No, Romney didn't play to racial fears, even though he stressed that he and Ann knew surely and certainly where they were born, by golly, and that the 47 percent of Obama's supporters were entitled hopeless losers. Yeah, that's our kind of non-racist, all-inclusive kinda GOP guy.
And "Trump probably won getting-by-O.K., working-class Americans rather than the truly desperate...."
Yeah, those getting-by-O.K., like the Kochs, the Adelsons, like Trump himself, the fat-cat insider traders, and all the other wannabee Trumpian light to moderately felonious rich white guys, they are getting by OK, like Romney's not a thorough-doing, privileged, insensitive, possibly racist hick.
And the GOP is a party of ideas and ideals, knows what it stands for, has a value or two. Maybe, once, back in the day, say 60 years ago, but no more.
4
The Dem Party has made it very clear it considers white men "the enemy." This newspaper, a de facto propaganda outlet for the Dem Party, just published an editorial about how "We" (Michelle Goldberg's political brethren) will replace "them." Can't really make it any clearer than that, can we?
The Dems have been playing identity politics for decades, and now they're upset the objects of their hatred don't appreciate the abuse. Priceless.
5
All the hand-wringing by the respectable pundit class about evil "white nationalism" is simply the result of applying an outdated and irrational double standard.
The traditional paradigm has been that "Whites" are supposedly all-powerful and may therefore be criticized, demonized, and subjected to different legal standards such as anti-white affirmative action preferences. Obviously, no other group in America would be expected to tolerate similar race-based mistreatment.
Two developments, however, are steadily breaking down the traditional tolerance of normal (not SJW) whites for this differential treatment:
(1) The explicitly stated contempt of the MSM for "whiteness," alleged "white privilege" and all things "white" in general (See e.g., the NYT's defense of its hiring of anti-white editor Sara Jeong); and
(2) The triumphalist claims of the MSM that immigration will put these "racist" deplorables in their proper place as a detested out-of-power minority. (See e.g., Michelle Golberg's 10-29 article "We Can Replace Them").
Ironically, the NYT and other "woke" media are thus really the cause of the so-called "white nationalism" that they decry. And the NYT can't have it both ways forever -- celebrating and cheerleading for the decline and marginalization of a particular ethnic group, while simultaneously claiming that the same group has no right to self-organize or form a political identity to resist.
8
From Ross' column last week:
"the liberal analysts who muster 16 regression analyses to prove that Midwesterners who voted twice for the first black president and then voted for Trump were white supremacists all along."
So descriptive of article, after article, after article - for the past year, in every liberal paper. Talk about living in a bubble...
Re: "...a real center-right majority could be built on economic populism and an approach to national identity that rejects both wokeness and white nationalism."
This. (Or a Populist left majority...)
Uniting, not dividing.
Whichever party which would reject their corporate donors, reject divisive rhetoric on wedge issues, and take up the mantle of true economic populism (by policies to raise the bargaining power of workers, and thus increase economic security - as both Trump and Bernie promised to do), could indeed become a solid majority party, unite the nation - and in the process, be in a position to get their way on those same divisive wedge issues. But both parties are so beholden to donors, they can't even *pretend* to want to do this, for fear of angering those donors. Trump wasn't afraid, and rode those economic promises to victory. Republicans have reaped the resulting legislative victories on wedge issues.
Trump's failure to deliver true economic populism, leaves an opening for Democrats to emphasize that issue. Will Democrat's donors and wedge issue extremists, allow a campaign on genuine economic populism?
2
Oversimplified. In 2016, Trump won **some** voters on racism, on nationalism and xenophobia. He won **some* voters on economic promises, telling them he could reverse the impact of government policy which rewarded short term gains from busting up businesses and shipping jobs abroad. And he won **some** voters on the idea of a conservative Court and abortion, and **some** on the idea that a GOP led government would cut taxes and regulations. An let's not forget healthcare.
He lost some voters on both his economic positions - did we really bring back a full middle class way of life to dying industrial towns? - and he lost a lot on the issue of his personality. And he lost some over his heinous treatment of immigrant children and dreamers. He lost a lot to healthcare. He most likely lost not a single abortion voter or tax cut voter.
None of that makes much of a rebuttal against the intrinsic voting bloc of white identity. The folks who put Trump over the edge were never the white identity voters.
A toxic sort of nationalism does run deep and never disappeared. This election was a repudiation of that toxicity, not by people changing, but by more people turning out to shout it down. But it was also a repudiation of Trump's bombastic lies, and where blue swept in, Congress's lily-livered, spineless acceptance and toadying that is normalizing the abnormal.
3
these recent N.Y.Times articles are telling. . .. . no other racial group would be portrayed in such a biased way.
Should I Give Up On White People (april 16, 2018)
White People Are Noticing Something New: Their Own Whiteness (June 13, 2018)
Reparations Happy Hour Invites White People to Pay for Drinks (May 26, 2018)
Why the Creator of Dear White People is Doubling Down on Identity Politics (May 3, 2018)
Can My Children Be Friends with White People (Nov. 11, 2017)
In a Proudly Diverse Australia, White People Still Run Almost Everything (April 11)
When White People Call the Police on Black People (May 12)
The Politics of White Threat (July 31)
How Can I Cure My White Guilt (Aug. 14)
Why I Refuse to Avoid White People (Aug. 22, 2017)
Who's Afraid of a White Minority (Aug. 30)
The Other White People (Nov. 18, 2016)
'Only White People', Said The Little Girl (Oct. 13, 2016)
White Extinction Anxiety (June 25, 2018)
The Religion of Whiteness Becomes a Suicide Cult (Aug. 31)
The White Strategy (Aug. 11)
When Black Performers Use Their 'White Voice' (July 13)
The Politics of White Threat (July 31)
Me and My White Teachers (Sept. 22)
How Elite Schools Stay So White (July 24)
What Whiteness Means in the Trump Era (Nov. 12)
17
@ Smith
Thanks for that compilation. Sounds like an African American Studies syllabus.
5
Just what the heck is "white identity" anyway?? The phrase or concept makes no sense at all to me: I don't remember being told when I was young: "You be white colored, so that make you speshul... them other colors: red yellow brown black and jewish, they be inferior to you so you must be PROUD to be pale and anemic: the white race must maintain its purity and we don't want no Sharia Law around here nohow." - just didn't happen. I've always approached each person as just that: a PERSON, regardless of superficial appearances. This general approach has served me well: I make new friends easily and no enemies at all, that I know of. WHY, in the 21st century do so many people still grimly hold onto the tribal notion that if people don't look like you and your family and friends, then they must be shunned or regarded as different and dangerous??? Sounds like something that cavemen might believe. Getting down to the nuts and bolts, its patently obvious to anyone who has a shred of objectivity in their general outlook on life, that there is absolutely no point in dividing the world up into restrictive categories and treating some of our nearly genetically identical (despite superficial appearances, the entire human species has less genetic diversity than a couple of tribes of chimpanzees do: scratch the surface and the differences between us are truly miniscule - and even if this were found to somehow be not the case, just what is gained by discrimination and xenophobia anyway?
3
It constantly amazes me to see what mental and verbal gymnastics Douthat will perform in order to deny the prevalence of racism.
4
I can’t believe I am the only white person who never thought of white skin like those deplorable (yup, deliberate word choice) nationalists who seem to think that white skin trumps (yup, pun intended) thinking rationally, acting morally and any notion of fairness and justice.
1
Don't like the truth? Call it fake news. Don't like the color of someone's skin? Call them rapists. Worried a Democratic candidate might beat your candidate? Say he or she hates America and is a low IQ crook.
These are still the problems we're left with after the acrid smoke clears from this election. They haven't gone away. They're called Donald Trump. And if you want me to be optimistic about anything, tell me how to keep him from getting reelected. Nothing else will suffice.
2
You think the Economy is strong, but it is not for low or middle income voters. Yes, you can find a job, but it doesn’t pay well. Most people have to get a part time job to supplement their income. I know this bc my husband works at Lowes Hardware and everyone who works with there has 2 or 3 jobs trying to make it financially. That’s no way to live! He’s retired but he chooses to work occasionally and gets discounts on new tools! White Nationalist’s are a pathetic set of people. Look at your leader Kobach who thought all I have to be is a white bigoted man, but alas, he was wrong! Guess we’ll see him at the WH soon, working for Trump and his followers since he lost the Governor’s Election.
I figure the people who came back to the Dems really need Healthcare they can afford and more money. They could see Trump doesn’t have any idea how to do the job, nor is he interested in learning to do it. Trump has not delivered for his swing voters, but we will try to!
1
I call your article self congratulatory white nonsense. Whites aren't prejudiced you say, then you ignore the studies saying the opposite, then you conclude: whites aren't prejudiced. It's the
Brooks/Stephens two step of lying about race (and other things). Add in a dash of promoting speaking opportunities for the odious Charles Murray, and you've got pretty much the whole nyt white stable, except Krugman.
1
What I find confusing and troubling is seeing “Vets for Trump” signs waved at his campaign rallies. Trump had 5 deferments during the Vietnam War for bone spurs. How can any veteran look up to a president who wimped out during a time of war for bone spurs, no less, then has the gall to criticize war hero John McCain for his capture and a POW for 5 years. What’s the problem with these vets?
Evidently, Trump supporters sole source of news is from Fox, where lies and conspiracies are gobbled up like candy 24/7.
2
Like Obama says:
Why are trump voters constantly so angry?
They got what they wanted: trump.
What else do they want other than only one " white race"
As if such a thing existed....
Why all the hate and rancor towards others?
I can only conclude they are compassionless, small minded and ignorant: just like Trump.
1
What is race? What is white identity?
There is only one biological DNA genetic evolutionary fit human race species that began in Africa 300, 000 years ago. What we call race aka color is an evolutionary fit pigmented response to varying levels of solar radiation at altitudes and latitudes primarily related to the production of Vitamin D and protecting genes from damaging mutations.
What we call race aka color is a malign socioeconomic political educational demographic historical white supremacist myth meant to legally and morally justify black African American enslavement and black African American separate and unequal in America.
American mythology is full of people of color. All people are colored. Or Hispanic/Latino conflating a Spanish cultural and language heritage that has nothing to do with race aka color or national origin or any combination of those factors. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are as white as Donald Trump and Mike Pence.
There is no Jewish nor Christian nor Muslim race aka color. There is no American nor Asian nor European nor Australian nor African races
Of the 63 million Americans who voted for Donald Trump was 58% of the white voting majority ( 63% white men and 54% white women). But 92 % of black voters including 88% of black men and 95% of black women voted for Hillary. No one who looks like Michelle Obama is in the Trump White House or Cabinet or Supreme Court.
MAGA?
1
do you conclude that
a) black voters, overall, are smarter?
b) black voters are better at spotting a con?
c) black voters can be just as selfish as other voters, but have a numerical disadvantage?
d) were typical of Democratic voters overall?
e) are the block most likely to save the country in 2020?
1
Can you imagine the NY Times publishing an article, praising the defeat of lesbian identity? Or gay identity? Or God forbid, black identity? Newsflash: White identity isn't inherently a bad thing-- but equating it to xenophobia and racism, like the NY Times does all the time, certainly is. THIS is why Trump won. It's not because white people in the midwest are proud of their race or secretly hate minorities. It's because, post-Obama you had a growing number of minorities, young people, "intellectuals", and the media condone and support white bashing, white ridicule, white criticism, etc., while lambasting anyone who says anything slightly negative about minorities. White working class voters who voted for Obama twice don't want to hear about how their country is racist and how they are privileged. Unless we put up a Democrat who tells liberals-- "stop dissing whites, it's bad politics and just plain dumb and immoral," Trump will win.
9
Again, though, you (and most everybody else) don't even mention the stupidity; the benightedness; the one-dimensionality; the manichean worldview (binary, read simpleton). Yeah, the polls, data and statistics, I know. But have you taken a good look at the stage dressing lined up behind him at (all) his rallies? Do you think his handlers *want* to depict him in that huddle? He, who SO craves "winning" optics? But, yes, that *is* the best they can do. And what is going through the mind of the occasional brown person who allows himself to be propped up there? Well, not very much.
"College-educated" indeed. Ever-read-a-book would be more like it. I get that it would be hard to put the data together. But someone could occasionally mention the obvious, i.e. that not only are we held hostage by one third; what makes it worse is that it's the third made up mainly of imbeciles. That's what should be riling up We, the Two Thirds, to get out into the streets and demand new rules (Senate, Electoral College and gerrymandering) that would put an end to any such possibility going forward. We'll see voter turnout when every vote counts equally, and that's just for starters. Repugs will fight like cats and dogs to prevent it, manifesting what is possibly their most (among many) un-American trait. Wait, no, actually that would be the racism. Or maybe the lying...
It's the stupidity, stupid. Always has been. 2016 only revealed that they're also not very nice. Not at all.
1
Douthat’s arguing an old argue: at the bottom our our problems is class and capital, not race. Roughly put, he’s more Marx than WEB DuBois.
Of course that’s not quite right, as what he’s really doing is watering both down. He’ll talk about jobs, but not the system that creates and distributes them; he’ll talk about race, but only by dividing white guys into a) the Klan, and b) those who are “indifferent,” to racial differences, unlike them BLM radicals.
You know...the real racists.
Beyond that, the problem is that yeah, it IS quite possible to vote first for a black man and then Trump. You just get mad enough at the system that you don’t care, bring in the black guy with a mop because you’re fairly scared, and then draw the line at electing a girl. They’re all yucky.
It’s actually even simpler than that. Obama never got the uneducated white guy vote at all, and now trump got them. Sorry, but for a lot of white guys Trump’s loathing of colored folks and women isn’t a bug, it’s a feature.
2
First off Trump lost to Hillary by nearly 3 million votes . And will lose to her by 5 million if they meet again. Where Democrats fall short is in the mid term elections. When a democrat is in power republicans walk around with sore heads for two years. They never stop complaining. They even make up things to complain about. Even the wildest made up stories become their talking points. Obama was more tha they could stomach. The gentle intelligent black man Occupyingliving in the White House. They ran around like the figure from the Munch painting Scream. It drove them so crazy that a cretin like Donald Trump could stir them to burn down their house and start anew. Thus the new republican has arisen. Which finally woke up the democrats to show up turn off midterm. The majority is back in action. This time with they want to keep their countries there democracy they better stay the course.
A huge number of white nationalists, from Richard Spencer, to David Duke, to the dorks known as the Proud Boys, all endorse Trump. Why?
Did Mitch McConell announce publicly and then obstruct the Obama administration for 8 years because of economics? Of course not.
The driving under current of the Trump era (and the past 40 years of the GOP) has been about race, or rather GOP fears that their innate privilege is threatened by a demographic wave that will finally flush them out to sea.
4
they play up, encourage, and incite that fear, but it is merely a distraction as they rob us all blind. so, the racism exists, but the underlying motive is economic and the racism a cheap, ugly tactic.
3
It may not be the same in America, but the white working class in deindustrialized areas in the UK that normally vote Labour, voted Brexit, a movement led by the Conservative right. Because the main motor behind it, Nigel Farage, presents himself as the guy in the pub, at one with those at the bottom, although he is ex-City, rich, etc, etc.
I'd imagine that many American white working class, including deindustrialized areas, voted for Obama grinding their teeth. The alternative was to vote for some Republican posh millionaire who went to some Ivy League uni, probably the only thing more repellent to them than a black man who, at least then, wasn't grossly rich. Once the Republicans produced a racist millionaire with a blue collar mind, as D. Trump Jr described his father, it became no contest.
4
You know us too well!
1
Well, let's see Pelosi et al. pass "immigration reform" now and a bill abolishing ICE ... and the election consequences in 2020.
2
With racism they have existing expectations and it requires next-to-nothing from Trump to meet those expectations, with economics he has to actually do something to meet those expectations, but he will betray them, which meets MY expectations!
1
Yes, it may be economics but the facts about this are so important. Do immigrants hurt the economy? Do they use social welfare? Do they take jobs? do they cause more crime? These questions have factual answers with data collected over years. This info must be made available. The leaders who want to distort and lie about these things must be shut up. The facts are clear, we depend on immigration for our economic well being.
2
My view is that Trump's supporters can be divided into two groups - reasonable and unreasonable people.The unreasonable ones , his base, are too far gone for any chance of conversation. The reasonable ones are of interest. They ignored, much to their own surprise I'm sure, all of Trump's openly racist, bigoted, and ignorant rhetoric in the hope that he will stop the rapid changes that were taking place in science, technology, social norms and values which were in turn causing their constituencies to stagnate, to be left behind. They voted for Trump to slow down progress and progressive values, slow down immigration, slow down alternative energy technologies, slow down the rise of LGBT rights, slow down, slow down, slow down.... They saw in Trump someone like themselves, an old school oldtimer who will slow down the rise of the coastal states and their liberal culture. I don't believe there is much else going on. To recapture these reasonable people, a process which may have started already, they must first realize that Trump was simply using them, that their lot is not going to get any better with him at the helm, that going backward is futile... That process of realization will take some more time... hopefully before the 2020 election.
3
it's time to play "Ask an Actuary!"
1
What this all really proves is that Hillary was a terrible candidate for the Democratic party. If the DNC had backed Bernie instead of handing the nomination to Hilary, we would not have Trump as a president right now. She is universally unlikable, and been involved in too much corruption. She had too much baggage that Bernie didn't have. If he had been the choice between Trump, these same results would have been seen in the 2016 election. It had little to do with racism or sexism, and a whole lot to do with people being sick of political games, and politicians in general. That's why both Bernie and Trump had such great success. They didn't run on a traditional party platform.
4
Excellent article in the wall street journal pointing to education levels as one of the deciding factors. In many ways, trump is a product of failures in the education system in rural areas, and among the blue collar working class in particular which have become breeding grounds for right wing extremism and fascism. Education has for long become essential in america, especially in high technology, medicine, law and many other fields. For immigrants, obtaining a US degree is a matter of survival and achieving a good standard of living. In 1970, a 4 year degree was not needed in america.Many americans realize this and have obtained college degrees. Competition from asian countries has also become very stiff. They have sent many foreign students here, who ended up being qualified for many jobs that blue collar and college degreeless whites don't qualify for. This is a situation that america created, not immigrants. Education is highly valued in cities and suburbs, and decides whether one can make a decent living. Voting for trump is not going to help blue collar and rural trump supporters beyond a point. He can only do so much to keep low wage undocumented immigrants and foreign competition out of steel,aluminium and the car industry to protect the low and medium wage jobs. In the meantime,automation and china's march is relentless. Education is needed to compete and for survival.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/midterm-results-point-to-a-new-divide-in-politics-education-1541865601
2
How is it that the concept of White Identity is identified as a negative thing, while every other group expressing their identity is a positive? That concept, in and of itself, seems racist at its very core.
7
Another salient point is that the white working class in the USA actually does face a very grim future. The soon-to-be-minority white population will do a very poor job of protecting their interests, and the soon-to-be-majority nonwhite population will be openly hostile toward them. So the future economic and social prospects for working class whites is in fact quite dismal; no particular voting strategy can change that.
2
If Douthat were correct, the white conservative base and intelligensia would have rejected and reject such leaders and thinkers as JC Watts, Larry Elder, Thomas Sowell, and Candace Owens. It would hate Nikki Haley on general racist principles. It would have rejected Herman Cain. None of those things happened. All those folks are loved and embraced. Please explain why. I have an explanation. People care about their character and thinking, not their skin color. This is the least racist truly multicultural nation in the history of civilization.
4
Putting Thomas Sowell on the same intellectual level as those other clowns is completely absurd.
Ross Douthat appears rtf be operating under the mistaken impression that Hispanics comprise a racial minority. Actually, Hispanics can be of any race or combination of races, but most are white.
The Census Bureau 's 2017 National Population Projections Tables show that Hispanics of all races made up 17.79 percent of the U.S. population in 2016, but white Hispanics made up 15.64 of the U.S population. Hispanics who identify as black, Asian, Native American, etc. made up less than 3 percent of the population.
The Census Bureau projects that whites, who made up 76.91 percent of the population in 2016, will decline to 67.99 percent of the population in 2060, but this projection is based on an anticipated upsurge in immigration from Asia that may or may not occurred if the United States changes its immigration quota system. As long as present immigration trends continue, the United States will grow whiter.
Source: U.S, Census Bureau 2017 Projections, Table 5 (Race by Hispanic Origin)
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj/tables/2017/2017-summary-tables/np2017-t5.xlsx
It IS racism. If it weren't, Trump voters would be angry at their own representatives and President who have the power to fix the syatem, but don't. Instead they get vindictive toward brown people (not Canadian visa-overstayers, I notice) who have ZERO control over the system. Further, there is a ginormous difference between immigration policy discussions and the gratuitous, costly, ineffective sadism of ripping children from their families or confining tens of thousands in internment camps without due process --Guantanamo in our Southwestern deserts.
I know it when I see it, because I'm not willing to overlook it.
I think this is a good analysis as far as it goes. But I haven't read many analyses that get to what I think is the root: how we view government and its role in our lives. Republicans since at least Ronald Reagan have waged a relentless propaganda campaign against the idea and ideals of government, the very government they want to dominate. Trump has carried that on and expanded it to every agency and institution of government except, so far, the military. He has appointed cabinet members who do not believe in the mission of their own departments. "Politicians" have always been suspect, but belief that they could do something good for the country and its individual citizens was never attacked and undermined as in recent decades. What happens when half or more of the citizens of a country no longer believe their government can do anything good, anything right, anything important, anything that improves their lives and solves the problems they face?
2
Trump happens.
1
Mr. Douthat has written a wonderful essay full of gobbledygook analyses, but the plain and simple truth is the following:
Trump would have a higher popularity rating if he had embraced the populism that he campaigned on. Instead he took the hard right turn.
Working class people want a government that will help them get ahead. Not one that promotes a Darwinian society.
Democrats once fought for working people (white and non-white). They need to get back to the policies that are favored by working class people. Promotion of unions, medicare for all, investment in education, infrastructure spending, tax cuts for working and middle class people, an end to the seemingly endless wars in the Middle East.
6
I assure yuo that this isn't about race. People who voted Obama, then Trump did not backslide on race. They are exhausted by those, mostly white and wealthy, and often in academia and the left side of politics, telling others how to think, while assigning the worst motives and attributions to them and their sense of country, and forcing them to bear the burdens of serving in the military, working in the industries the elite want to outsource, and living in the neighborhoods and communities that absorb impact of their failed social policies. They voted for the first black president because they are fair. When Obama said that failure to vote for Clinton meant sexism, rather than concern about her character, her smear of her husband's accusers, and her handling of the Dept. of State, careless or criminal, he lost my support. But it was typical. If you do not agree with the left, then you are misogynist, xenophobic, homophobic, racist, and fascist. The left cannot stop themselves. This is their reflexive response. There are no other good ideas. There are no counter claims. To live in such moral certainty must be blissful, but not for the rest of us. Question-how can deep blue Massachusetts have just now elected its first African-American congressional rep.and lecture the rest of us on our motives? That is a real issue. Red state voters are in reality no more and no less flawed that blue state voters. But we are finished with their moralizing.
7
while on the right, religious fundamentalists demand, often on pain of actual death, that everybody conform to their absolute and exclusive notions of what is right and what is sinful.
while on the right, opposition to government neatly dovetails with the financial interests of the few behind the curtain, pulling the political strings.
while on the right, there is an obsession with "life" before we're even born, then contempt and neglect while we're living, and then a return to an obsession with an afterlife nobody could possibly know anything about, including whether or not it exists.
while on the right, endless lipservice is given over to extolling freedom, liberty, and rights, but political support goes to autocrats who more than anything want to rise to become absolute monarchs by pandering to voters who want a big daddy to just take care of them because dealing with our actual world is more than they can muster.
meanwhile, there's plenty of distraction on gossipy social media, reality tv, and seemingly endless professionl sports contests and epidemics of drug abuse and obesity. IOW, the old bread and circuses dodge.
a nation of contradictions.
1
This is an embarrassing apologia, and I actually give you credit for better reasoning than this, usually. What happened?
First, it is well known that the average Trump voter in 2016 was NOT working class; during the primaries, most Trump voters were affluent Republicans.
Second, an analysis based on your "Obama-Trump" voters that assumes that these people can't possibly be racist is simply inane. I can't even believe you would make such an argument.
Finally, what in the world do you mean by this? "Trump promised to protect entitlements and replace Obamacare with something more generous" --- He did not do that.
The "rebuttal" of the economic argument (the "case for privileging race") is not a "raft of studies," dude. It is the obvious and overwhelming tide of racisms that is evident everywhere you look, amply reported by this newspaper and many others.
3
Trump successfully persuaded white working class men that they had been abandoned by Democrats by Clinton globalism nourished by Gingrich outreach and compromise and then by Obama’s rescue of Wall Street rather than Main Street. He persuaded the uneducated that there was a place for them in a new American manufacturing base even though eviscerated unions made this impossible decades ago. Most of all Trump persuaded white working class men that he felt their pain or at least knew how to apply his entrepreneurial practices as a compress to stop their bleeding. This was the grift that sealed the spit shake between two palms, that Trump knew business, economics and contract law when in fact he has proved himself a dunderhead in business at every level for four decades, losing ten billion dollars and bankrupting six times, on each occasion stiffing plumbers, electricians, roofers, painters, and landscapers, in short the very audience he encouraged to punch out the goats he pointed to so as to deflect their attention from his stunning stupidity in all but TV antics. The Apprentice was not as successful as Keeping Up with the Kardashians as soon as naked Kim delivered a porn tape to the Internet. The only way Trump retains the working classes, where I hail from until I learned I could do better playing pool and poker through my education than portraying a shipping clerk in a Chicago factory, is to find a war to fight in which our way of life might end. Yes, brethren, that.
5
Race has been on the radar since 1607 and even more so from 1700 when Blacks reached 7% of the population of 250,000 and 12% by 1720. Now non-Hispanic whites are 63 of the population, the non whites want in as full members of American society ...so we have racist fears stirred by esp. since 85% of immigrants are non-white. Maybe two things can happen: everybody is given to feel they are fully members of this society and treated accordingly and given opportunities to better themselves if they try hard, and PC and Diversity politics which are one side of the coin white racism the other, cease. Whatever happened to the vision of creating an American Tribe that is based on common values and ideal than DNA, religion and ethnic ancestry?
1
I think we could solve this problem more quickly if we used the correct language. The problem with racist white people is their racism, not their race. It's not "white anxiety." It's "racist anxiety." When you use the word "white" as a catch all to describe racist beliefs, you make all the white people who aren't racist invisible. Not a good strategy for ending racism. It's like saying "male" anxiety about feminism. It's not "males" who have anxiety about feminism--it's misogynists who do. Plenty of males support the equality of the sexes. The problem isn't "whites" or "men." The problem, as always, is ignorance and hate.
4
ignorance and hate are two of the legs upon which the GOP stands. the third is cheating.
It’s the religious nutbaggery, peddled for the last several decades, and promoted by cynical republicans for political gain that has so damaged the fabric of our country. This is a dangerous ideology, that gives white Christians permission to rationalize all means of bad behavior for the sake of “Jesus”. They are the modern day crusaders, plundering, killing and hating, because they have no real, deeper understanding of their own religion. As I spent the last 2 years canvassing for democrats, I had people ask me where the candidate goes to church (why should that matter), does he or she believe in Jesus ( how would I know, and what does it matter) and of course, COMMUNISM! it’s as if they have all drunk front the same poisoned trough.
Some had very sad stories, they had lost relationships with their children and grandchildren, who had rejected their stupidity. They were confronting a dilemma where they were having to choose between the charlatans running their churches and their families. I often felt like more of a therapist then a volunteer on a political campaign. It’s was sad and poignant.
4
be optimistic, Tex. the race between Cruz and Beto was practically a dead heat, even though Cruz had the Christian God on his side.
surprised you didn't come up against the impending Rapture, since it so strongly impacts America's politics these days, according to Chicken Little, a usually well-informed source.
“it’s understood by many voters as an economic one (which is why African-American and native-born Hispanics can be immigration hard-liners)” But they are not in numbers that exceed the number of Black and Hispanic psychopaths or millionaires. (There’s a thought: how many Black and Hispanic millionaires are racist xenophobic hardliners?)
Confusing column. Who will replace all of the racists (and persons who racists think that they are racists but they deny it, like Trump) and xenophobes, and misogynists, and Sharia Christians, and male supremacist religionists, and climate denier/flatearthers, if Republicans give up inciting them and terrifying them. It’s time to come clean. The Republican Party is the most dangerous terrorist organization in America. It willfully incites violence against non-Whites, Democrats, LGBT and women. Republicans are deliberately scuttling all scientific evidence that hydrocarbons are causing global warming. Republicans are actively de-funding Public Education and are actively destroying social welfare programs(National Defense priorities) to create parasitic profit centers out of health care, nutrition, clean air and water, and housing.
White identity? Scientifically, loss of pigment occurred as our ancestors migrated out of Africa and away from the sun. White privilege is a colonial construct. Race is an economic-political division without genetic merit.
There is not any racial backlash only Americans who reject the fear mongering and cruelty.
2
It is not racist to notice the way that illegal immigration has affected the supply and cos of rental housing in your lower-middle-class community, the number of ESL specialists who have to be hired in your kid's public school and the number of art and library specialists who are fired, and the length of the wait in the neighborhood health clinic. The only way that illegal immigration affects the vast majority of NYT readers is that they have less trouble hiring household help, and finding day laborers to dig out garden irrigation pipes. There is no effect on the classrooms at Horace Mann or Harvard-Westlake. Legal immigrants, yes. Illegal immigrants, no, please.
5
Take a trip in the way-back machine almost one year ago: Republicans were playing Martha Reeves and the Vandellas, "Dancing In The Streets" after passing their tax gift to the 0000.001%. That was when no one imagined Democrats would take back the House and claim seven Governorships (with two more likely).
Now, 2019 is knocking and the I.R.S. will be sending out new instructions and the reality of what awaits. Trump voters will now realize they were not invited to the party: Gone are the exemptions for your children; gone are most itemized deductions- replaced by a maximum $10,000 deduction. Educated Whites who simply could not stand the thought of voting for someone with a "C" surname will be in the same pot of stew as Trump's most ardent zombies: Welcome to the apocalypse.
1
"Trump's deliberate race-baiting had an activating effect on white anxiety?" Correction: Trump's race-baiting had an activating effect on white racist anxiety. This white person is happy to see people of color elected to the highest offices in the land and then some. Can we please stop painting "white" people with one brush? It's just as bad as painting any other demographic with one brush. When a person is a racist, the defining characteristic is not their race, it's their racist beliefs.
2
A simple thought experiment belies Ross’ thesis. It is this: imagine a black candidate who shared almost all of Trump’s “qualities” and platform had run in 2016. Suspend for a moment your disbelief that this person could win the Republican nomination. I contend that presidential candidate “Black Trump” would have either, a.) been forced out of the race when the Access Hollywood audio emerged, or b.) gotten waxed in the general election. In other words, yes, of course race matters, especially on the right. Duh.
5
or when he got on stage with his children from 3 different women...
2
We mustn't forget the height of hubris: not long ago House Speaker Ryan shared how Republican largesse was benefiting the middle class- because of the tax cuts jubilant reipients can use the $6 /mo increase to more than pay for Cotsco their membrerships.
1
Trump campaigned with a totally non 'politically correct' style, which has a great deal of appeal to people who think arrogant elites are looking down on them. Hillary helped trump greatly with her idiotic use of the appellation 'deplorables'. Trump made all sorts of claims and promises that sounded good to people who didn't think about whether or not he could deliver on those promises. Donny keeps acting like he is going to deliver, he won't, and eventually his base will realize they were conned. These are the key issues, the second one is fundamentally an economic issue, and neither issue intrinsically has anything to do with 'white identity' . The 'white nationalist' thing is only on the radar because trump, opportunistic con man that he is, realized he can throw cheap red meat (verbal) to the relatively small group that have those tendencies, and it guarantees they show up and make noise at his rallies.
5
republican dana rohrabacher was defeated in orange county, california, a republican area in the state, after winning 15 straight terms. This was a huge win for democrats. Dana was speechwriter and press secretary for ronald reagan and trump's favorite congressman, pro-russia and pro-putin like trump. dana is a climate change skeptic,and was completely out of touch with reality like trump and the gop, at a time when wildfires in california,due to global warming, are worse than at any time in history. though california is at the forefront of the fight against climate change, the world is not moving forward fast enough, and california's and the nation's attempts are facing severe resistance from trump, the republicans, and the oil and coal lobby. trump is horribly corrupt, racist, islamophobic, and sexist, and plainly deranged. he has tweeted complete nonsense about california's fires, indicating his complete ignorance, stupidity, hate and hostility towards california.he and his fellow republicans don't at all care about blue states like california. they imposed salt deduction limits that are hurting both individuals and the states. if trump isn't one of the worst to occupy the white house,with help from putin and comey, and after losing by 3 million votes, his policies and positions, and those of the gop have been very destructive.the gop tried to repeal obamacare, a very unpopular move.trump pulled out of paris. his tariffs are hurting everybody. nafta 2.0 is worse than 1.0.
1
but, other than that, what's not to like?
Since the election i have read of the people who voted for obama then switched to trump. I think this is myth. I live and work with these trumpers and they would never have voted for a black man. I think this is denial by some people of just how bigoted the average american voter is. I think obamas voters just stayed home.
1
if you are right, it means that Clinton was not a good candidate, and that she lost the election rather than Trump won it.
3
Sooo....if anyone who disagrees with you must be by definition either evil or stupid, its pretty easy to find racism, sexism, homophobia, etc, etc etc in anyone and everyone who has a contrary view on anything.
Maybe lots of Trump supporters didn't like the gutting of the middle class, or too rapid court dictated cultural change, or having to "choose' english at the phone center.
But then making the case that the other side is wrong is so much harder than just calling them racist!
4
Mr. Douthat, like his conservative pundit cohort, once again fails to own up to their ignoring the ever increasing reliance on racism of the GOP. For decades, Mr. Douthat and his ilk have studiously looked away as GOP candidates and their surrogates like the NRA sounded the racist dog whistles as they tried to gin the elections to be more white and rural through gerrymandering. It will never happen, but the disaster to American democracy that is the Republican Party lies at the feet of apologists like Douthat and the American people deserve an apology from these "good German's."
1
It tells us absolutely nothing Mr Douhtat, nothing at all, because we don’t have a representative democracy.
Ha! Even the Catholic evangelist Douthat is saying that "white identity" racial populism is, as Marx said, a "false consciousness"!
1
"Racial backlash against the first black president was more limited in 2016 because Romney didn't play to racial fears, but the backlash escalated, and flipped more white voters, once the next Republican nominee did."
Do you mean 2012?
The Trump's demagogic effect was felt by the millions, perhaps uneducated and with subyacent prejudices, who wanted to belief in his (empty) promises of 'heaven on earth' he clearly knew to be false. Trump, a poor rich guy, so called populist, was and is unable to feel for the poor and even the middle class, given that his social distance is too large. Tribalism in the republican party didn't help matters, as it was initially unfriendly towards Trump...until he changed their mind by suggesting forming an independent party if G.O.P. support was absent. This led to the complete abdication of republicans' soul, and allowing a runaway thug in the Oval Office to display cruelty gratis and maintaining unethical emolument benefits at will. All this made the taking of the House by democrats so important, to stop this bull in a 'china shop' from destroying what's left of this suffering democracy.
Sherrod Brown. A great example.
Fight for working people and you will beat theTrumpites.
3
@Socrates you have admirable grasp of language and wordplay. What qualities do you attach to the Democratic Party alternative?
The voters who wanted better health care and a huge infrastructure bill are disappointed. They are slowly drifting away. Soon all that will be left are the racists. The GOP should dust off their “autopsy” report. It will be worth reading while they wander in the wilderness.
2
Theories totally untested by data are useless. The notion that there were some significant number of Obama voters in the small number of areas were the vote went unexpectedly for Trump (who had a minority of the vote total) was not tested.
Thus there is a useless basis for willfully ignoring Trump's continuous racist dog whistles and the racist results with his electorate.
What a toxic blend we have. A president who is most unpresidential and spews lies with every utterance. A brainwashed cult who soak up the hate and lies endlessly on repugnant right wing radio stations and state-sponsored propaganda (Faux, of course). Mix in some religion - some preaching from the pulpit, some one issue voting (racism, abortion, guns)....the lunatics are indeed running the asylum. I am typically an optimist, but the past two years have really beaten me down, and with a media that seems pretty incapable of dealing with the likes of trump, hope is really hard to come by right now.
2
The Obama-Trump voters were social conservatives who are economically liberal, so they fit the decades old pattern of Bob Dole/Robert Taft Republicans.
They were not Democrats voting for Trump; they were Republicans who voted for Obama and simply came home.
TRump threw red meat to the rabbit chasing MSM with his talk of building walls and Mexican rapist/murderers, to keep the easily fooled media focused on the border states.
It was in the socially conservative midwest where Trump stoked racial anxiety and white nationalism by appealing with his dog whistles morphing into bull horns to people unaccustomed and frightened with the huge influx of dark skinned people in their 99% white rural counties.
That influx might be only 10 POCs, but to these people, stoked by Trump, it was a mongrel hoard seeking to take their jobs and and live on their tax dollars.
Douthat can try as hard as we wants to play off the racism deeply embedded in conservative America, this time by playing the "Obama-Trump voter" card (how can they be racists if they voted for the black guy named Hussein?)
But, on the night before election day when you are in snow white "iron country" in MN warning the people about the Somalis invading their neighborhoods, well, Ross what do you call it?
Of the 6 vulnerable Democrats in 2018, 3 lost and 2 of them were in MN iron country.
"The millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996) is the most racially and ethnically diverse in US history and will soon comprise the largest segment of the US population."(AEI)-Evolution is a defeat for white identity just as it was a defeat for slavery and a defeat for walking on all fours.......
1
I am white. I do not feel defeated! I won! Just not enough!
The people in this photo are the definition of Deplorable.
People in America care about prosperity and security, and most will take it anyway they can get it. Very few white people are so principled in their racism that they would turn down a credible promise of prosperity or security for themselves on account of it being too inclusive of non-white people. Conversely, very few white people are also so principled in their liberalism that they would turn down a credible promise of prosperity or security for themselves on account of it not being inclusive *enough* of non-white people. This is how some of the same people who helped elect our first black president twice are also now supporting a president who is effectively a white nationalist.
91
@AlphaBravoCharlie 9% of Obama voters voted for Trump. Significant but not tremendous. 22% of whites with no college. That is more troubling. The huge Democratic victory (+7% of voters) shows that people realize Trump hasn’t delivered for them. Most of those unrich who still support Trump do so out of fear and racism, not economic self interest.
23
The Trump victory in 2016 is easy to explain: HIllary Clinton was not the right candidate. In 2008 she had Democrats run against her in the primaries, so she lost. In 2016, Democrats stayed out of the primaries because it was supposedly "her turn" -- whatever that means (the only Democrat who ran against her was O'Malley; Bernie was an independent not a Democrat).
Lesson learned: it's never anybody's "turn." The primaries must be real, so the right candidate becomes the nominee.
8
I grew up in a working-class Red area and my parents still live there. Over a period of 20-30 years, the standard of living, housing prices and job opportunities in the area have all steadily declined. They don't know why everything has declined, but they feel and see that decline every day. They want to fix it, just like any of us would if we saw our communities falling behind.
So when someone like Trump comes to town and tells them that the fault lies with immigrants, or with globalism, or with Democrats giving away job opportunities through international treaties, this resonates with them.
It doesn't matter if it's true, what matters is that someone is finally providing an answer and - most importantly - a potential solution. What he's telling them is that if he gets rid of globalism and treaties, and builds a wall then things will get back to the way they used to be. Prosperity will return to them.
In other words, Trump is selling hope. It's false hope built upon a xenophobic platform of hate, but what they see is hope. Just like they did with Obama.
3
I would submit that the hope Barack Obama offered is nothing, but nothing, whatsover like the proto-fascist “hope,” offered by the scummy likes of Donald John Trump.
2
If you look at the national demographic picture, it is clear that politically what we have now is white males vs the rest of the country. And the epicenter of this demographic group is non college-educated white males. That this bears an uncanny resemblance to the states of the Confederacy seems obvious. To state that this political force is currently wielding the tyranny of the Minority over the rest of us is equally obvious. Mr. Douthat is correct that race and economics both motivate this group. But you know Trump will not transition to non-divisive racial themes. So winning over this group in 2020 means winning the economic argument, especially in the Midwest. Trump will obfuscate this issue. To win we must focus on it.
4
Having listened to Fox and Breitbart from time to time (and perhaps I should more often) I rarely hear overt racism, even from white nationalists. Economics has been the cover behind which racism smolders, flaring overtly from time to time. Immigrants are not bad because they are Mexican but "the worst of the Mexicans". Illegal immigrants may be of color, but their assault is on "taking what is not rightfully theirs, our hard earned tax money for their health care". Tariffs, sanctions and travel bans are "to bring back our jobs". The fact that they are all against peoples from other tribes allows for the claim "pure coincidence". And so calling them out as "racists and mysognists" or "deplorable" or "dog whistle race baiting" is politically correct "hysteria" of the liberals.
What is needed are solid antidotes for a better future for rural America lost to a decline in manufacturing, global conglomerate farming, opioid dependence and suicide that embraces multiculturalism without more government fixes and handouts to take down the economics disguise.
Beto O'Roukes embracing of Mexicans and Mexican Americans in El-Paso as an essential part of a bigger, better, and more successful community because of the inclusion may be a superb example.
92
You’re on to something, especially citing the example of Beto O’Rourke. Yeah, he lost to Cruz, but that he could come so close to a very popular incumbent in the first place is the real story. In another 6 years, the support for that Senate seat will come overwhelmingly from Dems, or Republicans if they can find an identity.
The Dems would do well to look at what O’Rourke did in that Senate race. It may hold the key for them in 2020 if they’re smart enough to embrace it. My concern is that, at least in the House, they won’t find that kind of leadership from Nancy Pelosi, and probably not in the Senate from Chuck Schumer.
8
The implied racial and economic messages associated with #MAGA are becoming weaker. Promises made. Promises kept???
OK, you have a Trump tax cut favoring the rich, superficial deregulation, and more Federalist judges. That's it for Trump. How is that making the average Americans life better? It is not.
We can expect the truly delusional conservatives will stay with Trump. Another 2% of Trump 2016 voters moving away from Trump will seal a Democratic wave in 2020. Maybe then infrastructure spending, international relations, American greatness, and the lives of typical Americans can be improved.
3
After all that careful analysis, it is just as likely that the outcome of the midterm is a reflection of simple disgust for the man who made it all about him. That is a fact, the rest is speculation.
4
Can't quite follow this, but Mr Douthat seems to be taking some satisfaction from his conclusion that Trump supporters aren't voting so much on their whiteness but rather on their economic anxieties.
Further, the ones with the greatest economic anxieties are not the poorest but the "working" class who see their current way of life as an entitlement which is threatened.
But by whom do they think it is threatened?
Does that not bring us back to race and immigration?
4
Really?
It seems you have not personally experienced the wonder of life in working class America, replete with ever changing schedules, canceled shifts and an emphatically non-living wage.
1
A world of prejudice is wrapped up in those words "economics" and "race." The caption writer caught the spirit of the latter, and wrote of white identity. But surely, he and Douthat mean identity and whiteness as defined narrowly by history. I'm white, but as a kid, I was in an underprivileged minority because of politics and religion. And what on earth do politicians mean by "economics?" This in an area littered with misdirection and hypocrisy. A chicken in every pot? Tax breaks for the middle class? Bootstraps for the poor so they can pull themselves up? Lectures on individual responsibility? Until writers like Douthat get down to the reality that respect and caring, real respect and real caring, are the deficits we must first address, they will go round in circles avoiding the heart of the matter.
6
I think it's time for Democrats to accept that Hilary was and remains a terribly flawed candidate and that is the reason Trump won. The Clintons inability to see themselves clearly is the reason Trump won. The really poorly run and overly confident campaign was the reason Trump won. Dems need to look away from the Bubba glory days.
2
Or, maybe it was just the "evangelicals" in 2016. Who presumably voted for a presumed more conservative Supreme Court. But who also presumed there was no way Trump was REALLY as disgusting, inept and morally bankrupt a person as he appeared during that run-up. "Oh, don't worry. He'll change. And surround himself with 'great people', so I can ignore his play-acting". Except, uh, there in now no indication any of it was play-acting. So maybe either many of these evangelicals stayed home - satisfied with the Supreme Court progress so far. Or maybe it really was just that Hillary didn't have enough of "it" to sway another 80,000 people in 2016. Or maybe it's as simple as - no matter what a person's relative economic status - relative racial perspective - relative "blue vs. red" partisanship index - enough people in 2018 were just tired of all the ranting and noise, the lack of any substantive results, and the lack of any Republican response to virtually every successive "outrage" except cricket silence. "Winning" or losing wasn't - in 2016, nor in 2018 - and never is, IMO - a simple binary answer between economics and race, or wealth and poverty, or North and South, etc. Either within each voter, or within the total electorate.
2
New York Times columnist labor under the mistaken assumption that Hispanics are’t white. Hispanics can be of any race or combination of races, but most are white. The Census Bureau
2017 National Population Projections Tables show that Hispanics of all races made up 17.79 percent of the U.S. population in 2016, but white Hispanics made up 15.64 of the U.S population. Hispanics who identify as black, Asian, Native American, etc. made up less than 3 percent of the population.
In 2017, the Census Bureau projected that whites, who now made up 76.91 percent of the population in 2016, will decline to 67.99 percent of the population in 2060, but this projection is based on an antiquated upsurge in immigration from Asia that may or may not occurred if the United States changes its immigration quota system.
Source: U.S, Census Bureau 2017 Projections, Table 5 (Race by Hispanic Origin)
A minor technical detail occurs: white racism says that Hispanics, Latinos, Arabs, Jews, Italians, Poles, and many others are emphatically not white.
We’re talking racist insanity here, not pop stats and not genetics.
Unless of course I missed something, and Trump’s been bellowing at a caravan of poor, struggling white folks walking up from Guatemala to beg for help from America.
1
William, about Hispanics being white: whiteness is a source of social privilege that can be given or taken away depending on the degree of assimilation into traditional WASP culture.
The Irish at one time were not considered white. We had to assimilate into WASP culture by giving up our accents and anglicizing our names and toning down our religion. Then we got to be white and we got the jobs and housing that were denied to us when we were considered dogs.
In Britain, as part of their new nationalism, they're going back to treating the Irish as nonwhite. The epithet "paddy" is coming back into style. That is the British equivalent of the n-word for the Irish. White status is being taken away from the Irish by heckling Tories trumpeting their glee over Brexit.
Just because people identify as white doesn't mean that their white ID will be accepted by the people in charge of handing out white privilege.
1
Trump won because the vote didn't turnout in Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia. If it had Trump would be a distant memory.
5
Douthat is chasing the wagging dog's tail. Looking for clues to "White Identity" thing in polls/studies when the source of all this is flailing away in clear view of the world: Fox News.
Formed in 1996, top o' the charts in 2001 Rupert Murdoch's Fox News has been crafting and ratcheting up White Identity resentment for too long. The populace is malleable. Fox News has given them bullet-point talking points and shaped their political views until you hear them mimicked at bars and dinner table conversations.
When a viable Democratic leader comes along with a clear vision for all of America who can spit out bullet points that make sense across the political spectrum then that Blue Wave will truly be a tsunami and wash Trump out to sea.
4
But Trump's reign of terror is all worth it isn't it Ross, because very soon every fetus - regardless of its health or future - will be safe.
2
I would recommend an economic boycott of the red zones backing trump. After the 2016 election i pulled out my money from investments that would benefit those zones in any way. Racism and utter madness runs very high in those zones, and they are damaging to my own self interest and a threat to people like me. I would like to help the pockets of resistance to trump and his racist and uncaring party in those zones, and rural areas, even in CA, it is difficult but possible and needed in some ways .Kris kobach, a trump supporter i despise for his racism, lost in kansas. Alabama sent doug jones to the senate. Dana rohrabacker lost in a deep red californian county. These are signs that there are people in remote places who share my concerns and values. Man made climate change is another motivation for my action. California is experiencing horrible wildfires costing 25 lives already. Dried forests due to climate change are the likely cause. States like north dakota are fossil fuel economies. California needs oil and is relying on those states.We expressly need to stop drilling and switch to electric and hybrid cars. Our personal consumption needs to avoid red state soyabeans and change to food products grown in the suburbs.Trump and the gop dont care for the state i live in.Their salt deduction limit hurts the state and many residents. Trump’s trade and foreign policy is a disaster, weakening our alliances, hurting consumers, worsening trade imbalances and hurting US competition
2
Take this to the bank: If you’re determined to find racism, you’ll find it. I voted for Obama twice. Now, suddenly, I’m a racist for voting for a guy who actually articulated an economic plan during his campaign, Donald Trump. Mr Trump’s opponent wasn’t Barack Obama. It was Hillary Clinton who utterly failed to inspire confidence that she would implement policies conducive to creating jobs and expanding the economy. Please know the charge of racism leveled against this Trump voter is misplaced and insulting.
5
Come on, Ross. Trump won because of those Obama voters who switched, and they switched only because they couldn't bear the thought of a female president.
3
We live in a world where few people enjoy real economic security. Anxiety is a common fact of life for almost all of us. Perhaps one could try this. White males and their families were happy even eager to vote for an African American as president --one who was so eloquent and thoughtful, particularly in the face of economic chaos of 2008. Also, Obama never asked for us to vote for him so we would have the first African American president, the way Hillary Clinton or her campaign asked us to vote for her so she could be the first woman president.
Votes for Obama by white males (and their spouses) in 2008 did not necessarily mean a willingness to be effaced. The fact that Hillary's VP candidate was such a weak choice--he even lost the debate to Pence--certainly did not communicate the sense that white males were important. (Consider how Obama used and treated Biden.)
Where white males and often their spouses fall on what should be seen as a spectrum of anxiety about their status and ability to lead a decent life, varies considerably. And it is far from fixed. It will be one of the major challenges of the Democratic Party going forward. Anxiety about one's ability to get through life with some kind of economic security is something almost all Americans have in common. And let us not forget the imminent threat of environmental devastation––feeling a little more anxiety of that front might be good for all of us.
2
I've noticed, over many years, that NYTimes readers with advanced degrees do not seem to understand or make a distinction between unskilled factory floor workers and skilled, often talented, tradespeople. These two groups are lumped together under the heading "uneducated," or if the commentator is more diplomatic "white men without a college degree."
People in the trades used to be the backbone of this country. They may not have finished college but many are well read, well informed, and they know how to think. Yet, all too often they are lumped with the woefully ignorant, the unskilled, and the closed minded, as if working with your hands indicated stupidity.
I've watched the economic security and respect for these people deteriorate sharply. For journeyman carpenters in the Northeast, the shift came in the late nineties when builders started using undocumented Polish and Irish crews instead of local carpenters. The reason these semi-skilled immigrants were able to get the job done was a shift to factory built homes that were assembled on site rather than built.
Trump's very first speech announcing his candidacy spoke to these skilled tradespeople. He said, basically, that when the shift to automation took place, and the outsourcing of manufacturing jobs got going in earnest in the 90s that our government allowed it to happen with no plan whatsoever for what this would do to the trade class and the working class. This is the real reason he won the nomination.
3
What a bunch of hooey! Gerrymandering and voter suppression had more to do with Trump winning than anything else. Add the Powell manifesto and the Two Santa Clause Theory and you have a perfect storm.
Blah, blah and more blah. America’s longevity is in decline, our rankings in most subjects declines yearly. On top of that our healthcare costs are near the highest in the world. Opioid deaths are spiraling out of control. Interest on personal savings has been near 0% for most of a decade. Our political leaders become multi millionaires. Wages move up in a slow trickle. Social Security has been in trouble for decades. Millions of people live, work and procreate in this country while undocumented. We provide for the protection of the EU while most EU countries ignore their opligations, and provide an enviable safety net to their citizens. You have NO CLUE what the people in this country are thinking and why they vote. One sure fact, the press has not helped educate people.When not being blind and ignorant they are one sided and partisan.
2
Ross, thanks for the “glass half full” view of the mid-terms - here’s a “glass half empty” perspective.
Trump has “organized” by far the most corrupt, least thoughtful, most lawless (in terms of following the rules of our republic) administration than any I’ve lived under in my six decades. On top of all that, Trump himself is a mean-spirited, brittle egomaniac - this is not news to you. Therefore anything short of the complete annihilation of the Republican majority - which was never going to happen, particularly in the Senate - is sad commentary on current US politics. Let’s see what happens with Whitaker as our chief law “enforcer” - hope Senate shows a spine.
We now live in a country - perhaps we have been for years - where ~30-35% of my fellow citizens have concluded truth doesn’t matter, and in fact where it is actively obscured by the President. From matters ridiculous (Pizza-gate) to existential (global warming) ignorance, willful and other, has too large a seat at the table.
“The press are the enemy of the people” comes straight out of the fascist playbook, and the violence we’ve seen won’t be the last - a lot of guns out there, and a lot of people being egged on to action through fear. The math - similar to that for radical Islamists - is straightforward. Even if only 0.01% of extreme right-wingers in US are willing to do violence for their cause - “to make America white again” - I fear your optimism is misplaced. Certainly hope I’m wrong.
2
As a white person I resent Douthat's phrasing of "white identity." Using the word identity connotes a monolithic image. There are white people who are poor and rich, Democratic and Republican, conservative and liberal, bigoted and tolerant, religious and secular, homosexual and heterosexual, urban and rural, patriotic and unpatriotic and so on and so on. While I understand what Douthat is driving at, he's way off on this one.
4
"President Trump, who regularly makes a point of personally insulting public figures who challenge or displease him in any way, taps into an especially toxic well of vitriol when aiming his attacks at black Americans ... None of this is subtle or secret; that would defeat the purpose. For Trump, loudly and publicly denigrating black figures is the whole point ... Trump has never renounced, or even acknowledged, the obvious racism of his birther falsehoods, and he never will ... It's a disgusting and dangerous business: April Ryan has been subjected to death threats in the wake of Trump's verbal attacks. One can only hope the fever breaks soon, with the public signaling to political leaders that dividing and denigrating people is no way to lead a great nation." (Errol Louis, CNN, 11Nov2018)
Of course genuine economic populism is not compatible with any current version of free market ideology and Republicans will need to continue the tacit alliance with white identity politics. Trump will play the extreme but conservatives who back "the science of human diversity" and "viewpoint diversity" will also play their role.
1
Well, I normally diss Mr Douthat's articles, but I think Ross is right on the ball here. Specifically, "Obama-to-Trump switchers had to have a certain indifference to minority concerns," which I think is correct. Many of Trump's voters didn't like identity politics as practiced by the Democrats, and didn't believe that HRC would do that much for them economically.
I think the path is clearly open for a Democratic party that stands up for people who work for a living, ensuring that they have truly affordable health care, affordable education, and decent jobs. There's an almost unlimited amount of infrastructure repair that's needed in this country, as well, and it is clear that the Republicans are really not willing to spend money on common goods.
5
Look. In presidential elections Americans vote for who entertains them. It’s always been a popularity contest. There’s way too much analysis of ideology going on — but I guess political scientists have to make a living somehow. Voters felt happy looking at Obama vs. his opponents. Voters felt jazzed looking at tRump vs. Clinton. He still puts on a good roadshow. Americans are simple. Complicate them and you miss the mark.
But what needs to be addressed is the role of the media. tRump held rallies only in the very limited districts that are gung-ho for him, and he kept going back to them over and over again. The picture in this column is from W.VA. Typical. tRump’s rallies were played to a limited audience. But the rallies were broadcast nationally, giving the impression that he was on a roll and an upswing.
We can’t let the media do this political distortion thing anymore.
It is wrecking democracy.
4
Well, to support Trump, one must either be a bigot himself, or he doesn't mind that Donald is. That is a hard truth.
As for the economics, we have a lot of low-paying jobs with no benefits and no voice for labor as represented by organization. Wages are barely keeping up with inflation while the top 1% owns more than the bottom 90%.
If Democrats support unions and affordable health care, they will win over both flavors of populism.
7
I am a white nationalist. I cheer for the USA teams during the Olympics, and I support President Trump as he puts American interests 1st. Economic numbers support this, new fair trade agreements support this, defeat of our enemies support this, reduce regulations support this, military restored to former strength supports this, new highly qualified Supreme Court Justices support this. Possibly you coasters might consider a trip to the mid west to understand why we are proud Nationalists.
3
@Dave
I grew up in the mid-west. At the time, the worst personal insult was, putting it politely, a phrase which described someone who argued for African-American rights. The second one, which I heard often as a child, concerned the supposed lack of cleanliness of Jews. Lots of nice and helpful small town people when it came one-to-one contact, but who, in large numbers, had appalling racial prejudices (despite the fact that they themselves weren't anyone's model of Aryan grace and beauty), were convinced that the Federal government was coming to take their guns and blamed liberals for every woe on earth -- forgetful of the Federal programs which, thanks to liberals, made their lives easier.
As for all you credit Trump with -- well, there's a taint of fantasy to it. Sometimes it's better to be thoughtful, than proud.
1
Trump may have won because he was running against a woman. The Democrats would do well to remember this in 2020: there is a segment of the American electorate that would sooner vote for a black man than a woman. That segment is important, especially since Republicans have demonstrated that they don't need to capture the popular vote. Not sure how Democrats can address that segment of the electorate, however.
3
@redweather
"there is a segment of the American electorate that would sooner vote for a black man than a woman"
Yes. But my take is, it was asking to much to expect these people to vote for a black and THEN a woman. What's next? A black woman? Some people just think that's the end of civilization.
We need to examine the polling data in creative new ways, and seek answers that will help heal this country, as Ross has done. But one one aspect of Conservative dogma that Ross overlooks is the distrust and even hatred of anything Federal (and thus Democratic Party - aligned) that exists in many places in our country, especially in places like the South, and the West.
Even people in harshly polluted communities ( coastal. industrial Louisiana for instance) stand by the companies that employ them even as those same companies pollute their air, water, and soil. It is almost impossible to dislodge these people from their disbelief that government regulation is in place to help people such as them against companies brazen enough to take state money for development and then turn the land and bayous into toxic waste sites.
These people will always give the polluting employers a pass, in return for decent wages. They understand that the Republican Party wants no part in Federal environmental Regulations, and so their votes will always be Republican.
9
@Alex MacDonald
Excellent point, although there is no need to stop with the environment. The Republicans have figured out how to get votes from people whose true interests are supported on the other side of the aisle.
@Alex MacDonald. Big business and their lap dogs in both parties, like to present the false choice. The environment or jobs. It not only doesn't have to be this way, it can't be this way. We have to find a path to a sustainable future. It will require: a smaller population, an educated population and a different economy and lifestyle, but a "decent job" and a destroyed environment is not a viable option.
1
Some of Mr. Douthat's analysis presumably depends on unacknowledged exit polling and is therefore susceptible to debate on methodological grounds. The idea that x number of Obama voters voted also for Trump has become embedded as a fact in electoral punditry; now we're told that the percentage of one kind of voter for Trump equaled that of another kind for Mrs. Clinton. Says who? Unless the whole country is as dysfunctional as Florida, the last few elections have taught us the validity of the cliche that the only poll that matters if the one on election day.
Green eye-shade dept.: Subject-verb agreement is always in season, e.g.: 'they encourage a slippage in liberal analysis where a voting bloc’s susceptibility to identity politics get described starkly as a “white nationalism” that implicitly places those voters beyond the reach of reason....'
8
@Martin Daly It sounds like you are prome to doubting the final election results, but other than the 2000 presidential election in Florida (i.e. “hanging chads”), there’s been no evidence in my lifetime that I’m aware of that the final election results were inaccurate. Just because they are taking a long time to count the votes in some areas does not mean the vote counts are wrong. You can trust the only poll thay matters; you have no reason not to. And yes, there is a fixed, specific number of voters who voted for Obama twice and then Donald Trump (why wouldn’t there be?). You can read about them quite a bit on fivethirtyeight dot com.
There's a huge difference between nationalism and White Nationalism. The latter belongs to Trump in subtle and not so subtle ways. The former - an inclusive nationalism - is a matter of definition.
President Obama framed nationalism as the peoples of the world united under one American flag. Exhibit A was Obama himself as an example of a Modern American of multiple origins.
From the Birther movement, from executive orders to erase every aspect of Obama's Presidency, Trump's mission is to reverse a Modern American nationalism based on inclusion.
However, current economics provide the fertile ground for White Nationalism. A huge and growing disparity in income and wealth, combined with an apparent of embrace of open borders and free trade, is the perfect breeding ground for conspiracy theories that certain privileged groups - an elite - a dark state - are in control.
Meanwhile, the Democrats crowing that "demographic changes" are on their side only confirms to some that the Party's first priority isn't those Americans who feel forgotten and left behind.
No one really sounded the alarm. Whether you are a Buffet, or a Bezos, if the numbers look good and the corporate system works for the bottom line - all is well. The paradigm for the brilliant success of these men does not necessarily play out so well on all levels of society.
Ironically, most immigrants are nationalistic. They simply want to be Americans.
5
@Jeff C Why is it "ironically" that most immigrants are nationalistic? Of course they are! Unlike most of us they chose what flag to live under. At different times in my adult life I've fantasized about emigrating to Australia, France or the U.K. (pre-Brexit). It was always clear to me that if I followed through on that I'd be the nth degree Aussie, or Frenchman or Brit. A country that grants you permission to join is a country to which you feel unshakable eternal gratitude. That's why I can't understand the anti-immigrant thing. These people CHOSE us. They believe in what we say we stand for. Immigrants strengthen us in every way.
@Jeff C
"Nationalism" has changed its meaning, probably for good. Or rather, for bad.
It now means cultural insularity, immigrants need not apply.
If you're going to use it another way, you have to explain your definition of it first.
Salvation for our Democratic Party, our American economy, and our American society lies in the embrace of an economic justice agenda that focuses on the economic security of the neglected Americans in the middle and lower classes.
We must advocate for measures, such as living wages, guaranteed income, shared corporate governance rights, worker stock ownership, which would give workers a stake in this unequal, pro-shareholder, capitalist economy, Medicare-for-all, and free public college.
If implemented, such an economic agenda would close America’s wealth and income inequality gap, replace our illusory prosperity with a real one, significantly reduce our social and economic problems, and bring Red America and Blue America together, creating a united Purple America.
9
@Howard Gregory Many on the left make the serious error of thinking that economic insecurity is the sole driver, or main driver, of Trumpism. This derives, I believe, largely from their reliance on identity politics for guidance. In fact, as others have pointed out, there are many Trump supporters who are comfortable economically, and many opposed to him who are not.
A significant portion of Trump's more emotional support comes from people who dislike and are afraid of the idea of living in an America that looks significantly different from the one they grew up in and would prefer. They cannot stop the inevitable changes, but can put significant (and in some cases potentially dangerous) roadblocks in their path.
So-called "progressive" ideas such as guaranteed income, "Medicare for all", and free public college are (fortunately) unlikely to be realized during the lifetime of most of today's electorate, But an aggressive push for them will not create a united Purple America, but will drive the wedges between Red and Blue even deeper.
1
@Howard Gregory
You're speaking of 90% of Americans.
They're not neglected. They're exploited.
The top 10% wring out of them every last hour of work, every last dollar of profit.
2
@Howard Gregory Economic justice? Buddy if a person can't get a job in this economy they clearly don't want to work. Every industry-mfg in my area is hiring. Send this "neglected" out to the KC area and they can find a job, affordable housing, easy commutes, great sports teams, communities who generally get along fine. You are welcome but please leave your poor me attitude behind.
1
I think Douthat misses the actual explanation.
Many Obama-Trump voters were attracted to Obama's eloquence, intelligence and dignity. He was careful not to be "too black." He was not divisive, not pressing for affirmative action, not in favor of same sex marriage. He was "of color," but, as offensively stated by Joe Biden,the ". . . first 'clean' African-American candidate ... who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy."
The dynamic that created Trump is backlash, including from some who voted for Obama, against what many white voters resented: Same sex marriage, Black Lives Matter, so-called political correctness, feminism.
In most ways Obama was just another political moderate, not a progressive.
Fueled by conservative media, many white voters became increasingly concerned that gay folks didn't just want equal rights, they wanted special treatment; that Black Lives Matter meant white lives mattered less; that immigrants were not assets in our communities, but were taking our jobs; that the response to sexual misconduct was an overreach and innocent men were really the victims.
When white, male, heteronormative privilege was intact, voting for a man of color was easy. When the privilege was questioned or threatened, many turned to Trump.
That's the story of this political era.
376
Bravo! I would also add that many white voters are perfectly fine with everyday “racism” the slights, economic disadvantage, and criminal justice abuse that Black and Brown people live every day. They are not necessarily comfortable with “ RACISM” as we currently see under Trump and many Republicans and white folks exercising the “privilege” to harass Black folks going about their daily lives - waiting for AAA, walking to their apartment and so on.
Even in the 50’s, that level of overt RACISM did not work.
Douthat still wants to cling to a narrative that white Obama-Trump voters can’t be racist. As an African-American woman in her mid-50’s, I have been given a “pass”; deemed “okay” because I was not like those “other” Black people, all of my life. That is until I got a little ahead of myself such as acting like a supervisor (my job) over white men. Then I was reported to HR, ignored and actively undermined.
That is how is goes in America for Black folks and why Obama voters were perfectly fine with white Republicans putting him in his place. They were also not going to suffer a woman telling them what to do either. Rarely, does anyone discuss the Clinton white male voters of 2008 who deserted her in 2016.
210
@Barking Doggerel Well, Douthat misses the explanation you'd like to believe. Obama was "too black", you say? So black people do not have "eloquence, intelligence and dignity"?
Actually, what was different about Obama, compared with earlier black candidates like Jackson and Sharpton, was that he was much more conservative...i.e., he was a standard blue-dog Democrat. Jackson and Sharpton were far left candidates.
Thus, Obama had a greatly increased chance of winning over moderate voters. Thus, he was the first serious candidate.
And then he ran the country exactly as he said he would. He won re-election. And by 2016, there was nothing that would justify the claim that "white, male, heteronormative privilege" was "threatened". So, that explanation really holds no water. Very few people actually watch conservative media; and overwhelmingly, those are people who are already conservative. So that doesn't work either.
Obama just did a great job running the country without succumbing to the demands of left extremists; but despite the long period of economic growth, the fact is that wages continued to stagnate, part time and temporary work persisted, and this was worse in parts of the country that went red in 2016. Douthat is right that many white voters were more willing to overlook Trump's racial dogma than some other groups. But there just isn't any substance behind the belief that Trump's win in 2016 was due to some "threat" to "privilege".
13
@MA
I also feel that many people have overlooked what an unappealing candidate Hillary Clinton was to so many people. Not because of racism or misogyny or anything other than the fact that she wasn't a very good candidate and carried a lot of negative baggage with her. We probably aren't having this conversation if Joe Biden were the candidate in 2016
13
The question is, what do those of us who are more economically conservative and more liberal socially do in such a polarized political system?
I wonder why our country cannot support candidates that demonstrate a high sense of moral character, intelligence and just plain common sense—maybe because some say it doesn’t exist? What’s clear is that racially motivated politics, politicians, or voters will not choose our next POTUS.
The question is can this current divisive, angry hyper- partisan environment ALLOW that moral, intelligent and common sense driven person to to be heard, get elected and bring this country together.
9
@Len The angry hyper-partisan environment is fueled by those who cannot accept that President Trump won. We in the mid west are benefiting from the great economy, reduced regulations, appointment of Federal Judges who respect the constitution. Take out CA and NY and there goes the vast majority of the anger. Notice how you don't see ANTIFA doing anything in KC, Denver, Dallas, Des Moines, Omaha, Columbus?
1
Millions of white voters put Mr. Obama in office twice and many of those same voters put Mr.Trump in office. It seems very unlikely that "white lash" or race hatred was the reason for Mr. Trump's victory. Mr. Trump's victory was based on disappointment. The public desperately wanted Mr. Obama to be that transformational leader he promised in his campaign to lead us out of gridlock. It did not happen. So their next choice was between Mrs. Clinton who represented more of the same and Mr. Trump's fire and brimstone pitch. The election of Trump is how the public speaks when it is disappointed with the status quo. When our Congress gives us poor governance, the people give you Trump. The American people have sent a wake-up call to Congress. All we can do is vote. Do we have your attention now?
14
That Barack Obama was not the transformational leader many voters hoped for was not his fault or his doing. The blame goes to Mitch McConnell and the Republican Congress for thwarting President Obama every moment of his 8-year.
@dudley thompson
We don't know how many Obama voters opted for Trump. My guess is not that many.
Don't forget that many voted for Stein, who received almost three times as many votes in 2016 as she did in 2012.
I refuse to believe that incipient racism and sexism did not enter the consciousness of many, if not most, Trump voters.
Clinton still beat Trump by three million votes.
The Democrats could regain and solidify their gains in the Midwest by offering a New Deal-style agenda to rehabilitate the region.
The danger is that they will be too caught up in #MeToo and disdainful of labor and civil rights of minorities to throw away the lower-middle-class again. The Clintonian agenda does nothing for the Midwest, except perhaps for the college towns.
A good read is Fred Dutton's "Changing Sources of Power" (1972). It advocated what we now call the 'meritocracy.' He envisioned an end to the New Deal and a party instead of professionals. Kyrsten Sinema is poster girl for this sentiment.
2
@Epaminondas Obviously you have not traveled to KC, Omaha, Columbus, St. Louis, Wichita, Denver, etc. We don't need rehabilitation as our economies are doing very well.
Ross, you left out those Obama/Trump 2018 midterm voters who may have gained observational skills these past two years that finally convinced them of President Trump's disqualifying defects of character.
10
With Democratic victories mounting what I find truly frightening and even treasonous is Trump and Rick Scott and other Republicans claiming that Democrats are trying to steal the elections. This despite the fact that Republicans control the states in which the ballot counting is still going on. Republicans want the vote counting stopped while they are still ahead. Republicans do not like Democracy and they do not believe in every citizen having the right to vote nor that every vote should count!
25
@Mary It is called following the established voting laws in each State. PS. Dem victories where hard to find in Missouri where we cling to our guns and bibles and know what bathroom to use.
Can anyone trust any of columnists for this paper to give a realistic viewpoint on Trump supporters? Most readers here don't care of course and are happy with the negatives piled on in every op ed that appears.
"Trump probably won getting-by-O.K., working-class Americans rather than the truly desperate, and that Obama-to-Trump switchers had to have a certain indifference to minority concerns (which is what many social-science measures of “racial conservatism” pick up) to tolerate his more bigoted appeals."
I think adding in the pro-life and Christians of any economic strata makes sense, and of course those who chose the least of two evils.
2
@kwb
A friendly suggestion. It would be far more constructive for you to actually give an account of Trump supporters instead of jumping to conclusions about this paper or its readers, because otherwise you are merely proving the point.
Mr. Douthat, you have completely overlooked gender as a factor in the recent midterm elections. All of those more typically Republican, white suburban women who had voted for Trump in 2016 clearly and overwhelmingly, it seems, voted against him and his misogyny in 2018. I am in no way suggesting that gender was the only factor. But in your analysis to completely ignore it, when many polls show clearly that women (of all races and ages) — after Trump’s attacks on Maxine Waters, the unfolding truth about the Stormy Daniels and Karen MacDougal affairs and payoffs, and of course the successful apapointment of Brett Kavanaugh after Dr. Ford’s testimony coupled with Kavanaugh disgraceful behavior and possible perjury in the Senate Committee on the Judiciary — were indeed a force of nature in the midterms. Hurricane force winds, as they say. Have you forgotten the Women’s Marches in 2017, women around the world who came out in opposition to the election fo Donald Trump? Gee, that was a bigger crowd than even the Obama inaugurals — there were women on EVERY CONTINENT on the planet who marched. Time to turn your attention from aggrieved white males and towards the women of all races and economic classes who have had ENOUGH.
15
Racism has been part of American history from the beginning, but it seems to diminish with each generation. When this country began probably 90 percent of the population had racists thoughts about nonwhite groups. After the Civil War it was down to 80 percent. After WWI, 60 percent. After WWII, around 50 percent. After the Civil RIghts movement, 40 percent. Now racism is down to between 30 to 20 percent of the population. The millennial generation is the least racist ever and will probably mean the eventual end of racism as a political rallying point as scientists agree that racism is an artificially constructed belief which has no basis in genetics.
5
I think Ross spectacularly underestimates the force of racial animus as a motivating factor in the so-called Trump base. Admittedly, this base appears to be shrinking, but one need go no further than those GOP race-baiting speeches and commercials that represented that party’s closing “argument”, not economic security, to conclude that an appeal to white nationalism will remain a critical component of the GOP’s “message”.
5
Hmm. It doesn't seem to occur to Mr Douhat to take a gander at the demographics of the 2016 vote, which showed that Trump won white males, and a majority among non-college-educated white women -- he fell just slightly short of it among college-educated white women. The vote was racially split.
Furthermore, Nate Silver's painstaking analysis showed that the average Trump voter had a salary of around 70,000.
Trump appealed to whites who believe his message that equality meant less for them, that minorities were "getting ahead in line" -- as Arlie Hochschild quoted conservatives in the bayou country in her book, Strangers in a Strange Land.
The midterms are in part an acknowledgement, in large part by white suburban women, that xenophobia, hatred, and divisiveness may just not be all that good for the nation.
8
Fear of “the other” might be a better term than “racism”, which is just a specialized case of the former. In the case of immigration, fear of the other breaks down into several fears: that the immigrants might bring disease and crime into our neighborhoods, that they might take away our jobs, that they might become a burden on the taxpayer, and that they might somehow transform our country and way of life into something strange and unfamiliar.
Obama knew how to deal with the fear of otherness. In his campaigns for president, he avoided race as an issue and concentrated on the bread and butter issue of concern to almost everyone, particularly health care. And his obviously happy and decent domestic life was reassuring.
But Trump, with the insight of a demagogue, knew that fear of the other could still be stimulated for political gain, and he did so brilliantly, by making immigration a point of focus.
Fear quickly becomes a mental habit, resorted to instinctively whether justified or not. That is why the harm that Trump has done our country will outlast the specific controversies that were its occasion.
7
What you are talking about is racism. Sometimes you need to call a spade a spade. I do think the left and right talk past each other often. Much of the miscommunication involves differing connotative and denotative understandings of ‘racism’.
Why we’re even talking about now about white indentity politics, racism and bigotry is that In 2016 Trump got to run against Hillary Clinton. While we can pile on Hillary about how much of her less than compelling campaign was self inflicted, the fact is she entered the campaign cut and bruised by the political hit job known as the Benghazi hearings, and then had to endure James Comey’s ill timed and inappropriate pronouncements, what’s missing from this analysis is that many voters elevated Trump so as not to have Hillary. For many of these people, race or the economy weren’t factors.
This could more simply explain why the upper Midwest went back to the Dems while they went for Trump in 2016. Instead, the racial and racist components of the GOP are nothing new and will continue to play in important role in a hopefully shrinking GOP.
5
His favored/target working-class audience were those in position to (and thus well off enough to) benefit from, to put it briefly, some form of distorting economic intervention. Such distortions, like adding tariffs and propping up coal, were going to be paid for by consumers, who are often other working people and those who are in a precarious economic state. Trump promised these economic distortions, wrapped up in a bunch of other noise like the xenophobia. It was a strategy of division which included economic division.
Looking at it from a very aggregated demographic view will lead one to a conflicted conclusion, because such a view simply lacks the precision to address the situation. I doubt the racism would have gotten him very far if it were not accompanied by the promise of shifting money from everyone else to some favored segments of the working class.
It is where the white nationalist lives that is the insurmountable problem in a Gerrymandered America. Just look at the map. If not for the politicians who gain for themselves in such a system, those who refuse to face reality, both economically and socially, could not wield the influence they do. The real reason is the puppet masters of the 1%. Not until the 10% that occupy the next rung of the economic ladder all band together for the good of a nation, will we be able to overcome this scourge. Yes, it is the "elitism" that grips us, which is as bad as the white "nationalism." Contrary to the adage, sometimes politics is not all "local."
3
Could it just be that after years of negative coverage that Hillary was just too unlikeable? So Trump barely won. And from day one, he made no effort to reach out to the majority who didn’t vote for him. And now that majority, which increased by people outraged by all the bad things he has done, finally struck back.
6
Let's not forget that racism is still this country's original sin and that 'Make America Great Again' is simply a dog whistle for 'Make America White Again.' Perhaps, from time to time, it may seem to subside or slip under the radar, yet, like anti-Semitism or ‘nationalism’ (‘America First’), it will never go away because it’s so quickly and easily stoked by those whose goals are to manipulate those most easily susceptible to fear, hate and violence. Playing the economics card, however, while usually a somewhat more rational approach, can also be quickly and easily conflated with playing the race card.
When that happens, we wind up where are today and then some, especially when our corrupt, prevaricator-in-chief is for sale to the highest bidder, even if that bidder happens to lead one of our country’s sworn enemies. Bottom line: The more -isms we have to deal with, the less specific we’re able to be in truly identifying whom and what we’re talking about since everything becomes blurred and abstract instead of clear and precise.
If anything, the midterms were better than expected but must get even better before 2020 in order to prevail.
Where is the evidence that there exist Obama voters who voted for Trump? Trump received fewer votes than Romney in 2012 & Clinton received fewer votes than Obama in 2012. It seems far more likely that significant Obama voters stayed home and/or were duped into voted third party, yet we hear this continued assertion stated as fact that there are "Obama to Trump" voters.
Republicans would like us all to believe this, since it would protect Trump voters against the charge of racism, yet we only get anecdotes at best to back it up. It is far, far more likely that the phantom "Obama to Trump" voter is yet another fantastic creation of the right-wing propaganda machine.
1
Mr. Douthat writes "Racial backlash against the first black president was more limited in 2016 because Romney didn't play to racial fears, but the backlash escalated, and flipped more white voters, once the next Republican nominee did."
Presumably he meant to say 2012, not 2016. Yes?
I'm essentially a conservative person but I am definitely not a conservative voter. I read Mr. Douthat's column but often find myself in disagreement with his opinions. In this case, however, I'd have to say I agree with him. If the Republicans want to keep working class voters, they will have to support real economic populism, not Trump's lies and the complicity of many of his incumbent GOP henchmen.
1
This election was simply about the man at top. For many, many people the polices pale in comparison to the behavior of Trump the man. The race baiting, misogynistic behavior, bullying, immigration paranoia and general boorish behavior is finally too much. It is all too easy to feel that one may be next on the list to be harassed.
4
"At the same time these kind of studies often treat immigration as a strictly-racial issue when it’s understood by many voters as an economic one..."
But it's not undertood that way by Trump! He has been explicit in his preference for European immigrants over Latin American and African immigrants, despite Ross's desire to downplay both that fact and the fact that it has been precisely appeals to white racial anxiety (not economic anxiety) that Trump had used over and over again to mobilize his base. Sure, one can have genuine economic anxieties, and racial thinking can't be separated entirely from those anxieties...but neither can we make sense of those anxieties without recognizing how playing to racial hostility has been a way of distracting people from those economic, class based causes of economic stress, not addressing them. Racial imagination, once born, exists on its own and doesn't die in good economic times.
1
Like "populism" itself, Douthat oversimplifies things into binary either/or dichotomies, when in fact politics, like life, is a much more complex combination of factors.
To wit:
- You didn't take the anti-Hilary vote into account. (Which was based mostly on lies and hyperbole promulgated b y Trump, Fox, and the Rightwing Media Cabal.)
- You didn't take Russian interference into account. (Yes, it most certainly DID impact the election!)
- You didn't take into account that on the Right, many low-info voters are more influenced by blind tribalism than by actual facts and thinking about how policies actually affect them (rather than believing lies promoted by Fox and Trump).
- You didn't take into account the fact that Trump lies continuously. He contradicts himself, and doesn't deliver on his promises. The "thinking middle" didn't understand that this would be the case until after he was in office (even though us New Yorkers kept telling them this would be the case).
- What about views about other key issues, like gun control? (i.e. the rise in mass shootings)? Mistreatment of women (i.e. Blasey-Ford)? Healthcare! (i.e. suddenly realizing that Obamacare actuall helped people, after years of lies by the Rightists).
You can't ignore these factors!
2
Many of those old Democrats in Midwest pride themselves of not being racist. They had good old fashioned upbringing that taught them to see racism as something immoral and they were able to hide those prejudices voted for Obama with little hesitation.
However the increasing numbers of illegal immigrants in their towns combined with intensive right wing propaganda eventually woken up those suppressed prejudices and Trump was able to amplify them and bring them to the fore.
The question is are these prejudices permanently in the open or will they wane and be put back where they were 20-30 years ago. The likely answer is that they are reversible and the process has already started. With the weakening of the economy the focus will be back on economic issues and Trump’s appeal will wane along with their prejudices. Additional factors, dying off of racist baby boomers and increased political activism of millennials, will add to this transition.
This is over-complicating the issue. How many people in this country do you think would describe themselves as racist, vs exhibit any form of racist tendencies? I would argue that nearly all of us would fall into the latter group, and a mere handful into the former.
The fact is, the new far left has nurtured an anti-white, anti-male, anti-straight and anti-'cis' orthodoxy. Just pay attention when criticism is made against politicians for being 'old white males'. When Colbert announces that a trans woman was elected to office and the crowd absolutely erupts without knowing a single one of the person's policy planks. When the #metoo movement states that we must 'believe all women'.
The push for equality and justice for all is important, and while there are many pursuing this agenda the right way (including everyone in the concept of 'all'), there are also many doing it the wrong way by trying to flip the tables of racism, putting straight white cis males on the bottom of the new order.
Take the Charlottesville lunatics et al (the self-avowed racists) out of the mix. These are a small percentage of the population and don't swing elections. The rest of the people that you keep hemming and hawing over are simply tired of being vilified for not being a minority. People that voted for both Obama and Trump are: 1) not overly racist; and 2) feel victimized by racism.
You push the pendulum too far in one direction, it'll come swinging back hard. It's not rocket science.
Please do remember that Hillary is a woman. You have to include that important fact in the race v. money equation. Many men would rather go to Russia than vote for a woman, and a straight party vote is much easier than actually choosing the best candidate for the job.
4
I’m convinced that any analysis of 2016 also needs to include the negativity around Hillary Clinton, especially among white blue collar males.
3
I was beginning to wonder if there would be an ending to the column. The writer certainly goes to great lengths trying to convince someone (himself?) that Trump and his base aren’t motivated by race.
1
I don't think "white identity" ever meant anything. It was a combination of pundits' obsession with "identity politics" and their excuse for not predicting the 2016 election results properly.
2
@Charlesbalpha
And this is where you had best go back to the American History books -- start with the Chapter on Slavery.
If Trump actually followed through with economic populism in replacing Obamacare with something truly better and with enacting strong minimum wage measures as well as grenerous child-care tax credits for two parent working couples in small towns, he’d be a “shoe in” despite all his caravan blather. Watch him propose budget busting infrastructure spending for thousands of bridge repairs to put hundreds of thousands of rust belt rusty-pickup driving country boys in construction helmets before 2020.
I grew up in the rural South. I've listened all my life to why people here vote Republican. The GOP has always had more to lose by abandoning white identity politics than it gained in the Midwest with economic populism. That doesn't mean it couldn't do both, which I'm pretty sure is exactly what Douthat is hoping.
But it will not, because actual economic populism is at odds with its donors. The midterms changed nothing they care about. They've already passed their tax cuts and put hacks in charge of any department responsible for oversight. The Supreme Court for a generation will side with business against every other concern.
They have no reason to change, at least not yet. And columns like this are especially nauseating when Douthat has repeatedly written urging conservative voters not to give the GOP the kind of devastating defeats that it so richly deserves and that would be necessary to get the kind of change he pretends to want.
But the truth is Douthat is fine with the GOP as it is. I'm sure his vanity would prefer a bit more moral deniability, but he's gotten everything he actually cares about with Trump, and in exactly the form that is most fitting his hypocrisy.
3
If tiki-torch carrying white supremacist thugs chanting anti-Semitic and racists threats is what white identity is all about, its defeat couldn't come too soon.
In that respect, I'm grateful voters woke up and realized that kind of identity would never make America great again.
This is a nation with a long history of diversity, and a populist president who hitches his star to white nationalism in an effort to call himself a "patriot" is a contradiction to who we really are and what "E Pluribus Unum" stands for.
Granted, the economy at the moment is sound -- but money isn't everything, and it's no excuse for racism
And while the president likes to tout this as one of his many successes, the truth remains that it was the previous administration that jump-started the economy after a long recession.
If the midterms told us anything, it told us that our country's identity is no longer limited to just one color.
3
There needs to be a distinction made between "racism" (which would be used to describe people who look upon other races as inherently inferior and their own as superior) and "racialism" (which would be used to interpret all outcomes based on the presumption that the person is a racist).
Under "racialism", no effort would be needed to evaluate whether something is a good idea or a bad idea - since all ideas would be aligned with racism, one way or the other. A good idea - if the other person is "racist" - would be immediately devalued and no intellectual effort would have to be made to look at the idea on the basis of its merits (or lack thereof).
Two other big factors: evangelical "Christian" identity (a subset of white identity), and the love of guns. Those groups still went Republican.
2
Indifference to racism is a form of racism. It's sort of like saying "I don't care about apartheid because it doesn't effect me." You could say the same thing about sexism or many other isms. You should be concerned that your female contemporary is getting paid 20 percent less than you for doing your same job. Indifference to economic injustice is inherently sexist in this context.
That said, both explanations are left wanting. Obama-to-Trump voters are probably best explained by Clinton. Douthat and most pundits completely overlook just how unpopular Clinton was among the exact demographics that unexpectedly rebelled against Democrats. Moreover, Clinton's campaign explicitly ignored these voters to the point of insult.
Economics and race, while relevant, might actually be less relevant that you think. Taking Clinton off the ballot was probably enough to turn disillusioned voters blue again. Obama-to-Trump voters weren't voting for Trump so much as they were voting against Clinton. That's the easiest explanation. Therefore, it's probably the right one.
I don't get the appeal of white identity/tribalism. I live in a majority minority state, and the living is pretty good.
1
The middle-class and the poor are faith people. Any faith, particularly faith to a kind of messiah that will free them from their present condition. Always ready for the next one.
2
Of course Trump's election was an anomaly as much as it was desecration of American values. A series of events and personages aligned to cause his star to shine as follows:
A black president proceeding him.
Hillary Clinton running against him.
Immigration hysteria.
A dormant culture of racism and bigotry.
Social media.
Russia
His catering to, and making fashionable, the dark forces of our society.
We are condemned to live with the results -hopefully, for the time being.
2
There is no mystery: R.L. Allen (2008), in an article entitled, "What about poor white people" (In W. Ayers, T. Quinn & D. Stovall (Eds.), The handbook of social justice in education (pp. 209-230). New York: Routledge) wrote about this very phenomenon. Even though it appears that the interests of poor whites runs counter to the interests of rich whites, poor white people will align with rich white people forming a hegemonic alliance as way of strengthening white racial unity. Simply put, white people will unite together as a defense against a perceived threat from people of color - it is fueled by the fear of a perceived threat.
This isn't about economics or politics, it's simply about racism, white anxiety, and white fragility. It's not about folks voting against their own interests (who are we to decide whether someone else is voting against their interests?), it's about maintaining white privilege and power.
For this to end, whites have to understand themselves as a race and then begin to undo at least 5 centuries of white supremacy and the horrific oppression, repression, genocide, and enslavement of all people of color.
3
One can easily argue that the fears of globalization are closely bound to white identity fright: "The Bogus Backlash to Globalization: Resentful Nativists Oppose Free Trade and Immigration—Don’t Appease Them" ( https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2018-11-09/bogus-backlash-globalization ). The second paragraph from Charles Kenny's essay:
"Yet both camps misunderstand Trump’s electoral success. The voters who were won over by his antiglobalist message were not legitimate victims of globalization. Many, if not most, were and are older white supporters of patriarchy who resent people with dark skin, especially those from other countries. Although it might be inexpedient to call this group deplorable, a program of appeasement toward their views is wrong—economically, politically, and morally. Globalization has been an overwhelmingly positive force for the United States and the rest of the world. Instead of apologizing for themselves, it is time for internationalists to take the fight to an aging minority of nativists and wall builders."
1
Most Democratic politicians are not aware that, by far the best thing government could do for most middle-class households would be to lower their taxes. Thus, in many cases middle-class households will grasp at any chance they think could lower their tax burden and support candidates who promise them a tax cut, no matter how odious the candidates might be otherwise.
Trump famously said "I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes" .
That has now been replaced by "Trump could be caught handing American military secrets to Russia and still not have any Republican votes for impeachment".
Whatever evidence and proof of criminal acts that Mueller could come up with, it is certain that such evidence and proof could not be as powerful an indication of wrongdoing as the evidence in the public record that Bret Kavanaugh was lying in the senate hearings relating to his confirmation as a Supreme Court Justice.
Once Ford’s account included three people she said were there AND his calendar had them all at Tim Gaudette’s house on July 1, 1982, AND Ford’s description of the interior of Gaudette’s house in Rockville, MD exactly matches that of the actual house, which still exists: the only way that Kavanaugh was not lying is either: Ford somehow obtained access to his 1982 diary/calendar, or Ford has a time machine or Ford stalked Kavanaugh in 1982 and planned for this if he was nominated to the Supreme Court..."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4216597|
2
Having just returned from Berlin and Budapest, I have a new awareness of the power of identifying scapegoats and dissemination of propaganda. The campaign to brainwash the less educated with lies and conspiracies only required thousands to flip, not millions. Many of these people had probably never heard the word fascism before, let alone used it in a sentence. What is painfully tragic is that Trump was even able to sway well educated, financially successful Jewish friends of mine to vote for a fascist. As a member of the Jewish faith, I struggle with this every day. Forgiveness still remains elusive.
3
The republicans have, since 1968, used Nixon's "Southern-Strategy", to dog whistle the racists to vote for them. The chant "build-that-wall", is what Trump voters howled, they did not scream "better-jobs". That Ross can ignore these facts show us that as a conservative Ross is attempting to fool himself by asserting the false claim that Trump is something other than a republican. Howling "build-that-wall" is a logical step in Nixon's plan: "The-Southern-Strategy".
What's missing here is that Trump really is a racist. His racist record goes back to the '70s, when he and his father were sanctioned - twice - for racially based housing practices. Even though GOP leaders kept asking him to stick to the economy, he kept stoking white fears.
That probably turned off more voters than it appealed to. But the fact remains that it did appeal to many. The rise in racist-motivated attacks, the deaths of unarmed Blacks at the hands of white police, the horrendous shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue, are all evidence of a rising race and ethnic war that Trump has given open license ("good people on both sides").
Racists lost at the voting booth, but that will only make them angrier. and readier than ever to reach for guns to defend white and Chrisitan privilege. And Trump is enabling them.
2
Didn't see anyone in the pics I'd like to have a beer with.
1
Whether it is economic or racial, these past years of politics opened my eyes to the fact America is a country of demons and angels. It is in the fight between good and evil, truth and deceptions, virtue and non-virtue. We should be glad the fight is still at the ballot box and not the battle field.
The way I see it, though not entirely, but generally, the Democrats align with the angels and the Republicans, the demons. Why are the Republicans the bad guys? Because they want to let corporations pollute our only home, they do not care to protect workers from exploitative employers, they think anybody who are not rich are losers...., but most crucially, they do not care about truths, but want to win by any means including dumb-ing down us, the people - make us angry, reactive zombies that cannot think for ourselves.
Lying seems trivial in comparison to things like terrorism, killing, embezzlement, etc. But constant lying makes speech irrelevant and trust eroded. Without honest and open dialogues, democracy is doomed to fail as a means to negotiate our differences, and the eventuality of violence become more real.
This IS the sin of the GOP despite whatever wrongs the Democrats may also commit. Given the diversity of our country, the one thing we can proudly say is American is our liberty protecting democracy and our law and order. Both are now badly assaulted by our current White House and GOP.
Money, power, are always be the bottom line. The poor white should wise up.
This doesn’t really answer much. Of course Democrats could win back more white working class folks by catering specifically to them and ignoring minorities, about whom they are — what’s the word? Ah yes, indifferent.
There is a thin line between “indifference” and acquiescence to long-standing inequality rooted in historical discriminatory practices.
And in many cases, there’s not really a line at all, merely a fictional line drawn by folks who favor the plutocratic policies of Trump but find his bigotry just a bit, you know, déclassé (although not, of course, disqualifying).
87
@kkseattle But why would catering to white working class folks mean ignoring "minorities"? It's as if you see a zero sum world, where someone always loses if someone else wins.
4
@kkseattle great comment. Indifference is a dangerous word. Today it is that, tomorrow it is rabid.
4
The biggest story of the election is the record turnout of voters. It is unlikely that very many Trump voters changed to backing Democrats. Rather people who would not have voted two years ago came out to vote, and they voted more heavily for Democrats than for Republicans.
6
Why do we insist on boiling down our large and messy democracy to one main issue? Politics are as complicated and dynamic as the electorate, making any analysis insisting on one main explanation fatally flawed. Voter turnout, gerrymandering, voter suppression, Russian interference, Hilary's history, Comey's investigation, and a host of other factors undoubtedly had effects on Trump's ascension in addition to those listed in the column. We need to steer the debate towards policies and principles to counterbalance the current fads of identity politics.
14
Race vs. class has always been a false dichotomy. For one reason, most people of color are also working class. For another, Trumps core voters were Middle income suburbanites most who were life long Republicans regardless of who was running.
Trumps “racecard” is an old ploiy that was used by Southern Democrats for decades and by the GOP since the advent of their “southern strategy” since Nixon in 1968.
Whether this practice turns elections is unclear. But one thing that is clear is that many whites still don’t trust being lead by an African American. Obama was an exception as we see tight statewide races in Georgia and Florida maintaining a status quo.
Let’s also not be so quick to see a new racial harmony became of voting patterns. In most states the Trump effect is attributed to significant increases in hate crimes, the Tree of Life being the most deadly one on many.
At some point working people of all races will respond to leaders who offer action on the issues that impact their lives on a daily basis. Jobs, wages, health care and schools remain far more important than race.
5
Winning always depends more on turnout than message. It's the visceral versus the abstract. That's the secret.
To motivate turnout, race or economics must be linked to fear and anxiety. This is the only advantage that the Republicans have.
The Democrats turned out for the midterms because of their fear of Trump.
That's what did it.
5
Ross is pretty good here, but he misses what I think is an important failure of a lot of those studies.
"Economic anxiety" may not be best measured by examining the degree to which voters have suffered recent economic setbacks.
One might also be economically anxious if one is worried about the economic future, even if one is doing okay at the moment.
My own family is pretty economically secure, but I worry about the prospects for my children, given the gig economy, how expensive the coastal cities (where they will probably desire to live) have become, etc.
I didn't myself vote for Trump (and wasn't remotely tempted to) but I do live in the industrial midwest, and I absolutely get that people are economically anxious, even if they themselves have not suffered any recent setbacks.
19
@Warbler The issue is not whether people are economically anxious; it's who they blame for it and who they want to punish for it. For some people, having a scapegoat is more important than having solutions.
4
@Warbler
There's a difference between being "economically anxious" and unabashedly racist, but Donald Trump has found a way to make them both seem the same -- and therein, lies the rub.
There is a simpler analysis that the contortions Mr. Douthat goes through. More voters came out to vote in the midterms surpassing expectations. However still only 47% indicating that if we reached levels closer to a full electorate, the results would have been even more progressive.
The problem is not ID voting, it is not voting at all. More importantly it is candidates who speak truthfully and have a vision messaged that sounds realistically attainable and understandable.
18
@Donald
Indeed. (in other words Progressives need to stay the course, be true, and the people will eventually come, as Demographics take over)
2 years cannot come soon enough.
9
@FunkyIrishman. So your saying, as anchor babies, chain migration and mass immigration dilute and eventually overwhelm what was the u.s., the left will take over. And you wonder why people not only aren't happy about this, but are actively resisting it?
1
@Al Who is being diluted with whom? Your post is a direct example demonstrating what is wrong with playing ID politics, especially when it leads to tribal fears. Your discomfort with fellow human beings is at a hate level. If this is a heavy concern for you, you are going to be miserable anyway. It is not immigration that will change our national make up, but, as it has always been, the difference between births and deaths will.
Native Americans as original settlers were joined by an influx from many nations. It is a source of strength, not its opposite. The history of accepting this has been an ongoing thorn in the side of our history.
Please do not pass on inaccurate beliefs to your children or grandchildren. Everyone has some discomfort with others who we categorize as different, but it is to our detriment not to recognize and reverse such feelings. It is unwise and inhumane to lose the energy and talent they represent as fellow citizens and residents.
1
In Michelle Goldberg’s editorial today, “The Resistance Strikes Back,” she noted how there was no single savior that led the mid-term elections to flip the House. The leader of Indivisible said, “The answer was that they (Americans) had to do it themselves.”
So it was and so it ever shall be. Individual politicians can’t effect change on their own. It will always be collective action that’s the impetus for changes needed to make the system work.
That’s what Trump gets wrong. He thinks it’s about him, that he’s “the only one” who can set America straight. Despite his autocratic awfulness, the electoral process is stronger. He may wreak further havoc on our institutions and world standing, but neither he nor white supremacy will destroy the nation.
I hope I’m not whistling past the graveyard.
21
When you look at the people at Trump rallies they are well dressed and certainly not malnourished. They arrive with their cameras and cell phones after driving to the rallies, which are often held in airport hangars at the edge of cities in their pick-ups and SUVs, These are not underprivileged or struggling Americans. By almost any standard, they seem to be doing quite well, even though they may not be among the wealthiest 1% or even 10% citizens.
The privilege they seem to feel is being undercut stems more from a status that is not economic. While many workers are under assault from industries moving abroad to those without any future, like coal, they do not seem to make up the majority of Trump's ultra loyalists.
They see all over American culture, on TV, in professional sports, in the movies, in businesses big and small, in public service, in the arts and science, the successes that Blacks, Hispanics, Asians women, LGBT and even Muslims have made of their lives. They feel a growing loss of privilege. They became lazy from the easy climb up the ladder they enjoyed for years and fear the loss of their position may be permanent. They forgot all about the hard work, education, drive and can-do philosophy that was essential to success in America.
It is easier to blame immigrants, globalism, racial and religious minorities and non-discrimination laws that they call special rights. Trump says what they want to hear.
53
@Marvin Raps: The law of diminution at the margin affects us all. The more of us there are, the less we are worth to each other. As Bill Gates said of China, when one meets a one in a million talent there, one knows there are 1400 more people at least that talented out there.
8
@Steve Bolger. As Royal Robbins the famous climber said. " there is a simple formula between people and freedom. The more people, the less freedom".
1
Do not overlook the fact that religion played a part in the rise of trumpism. For whatever reason trump is the Pope in the eyes of far too many evangelicals. It is getting harder to distinguish whether evangelicalism is a cult or a religion. That is if it is possible to even distinguish between the two in the first place.
20
@John Warnock: There is nothing that Evangelicals fear more than absolute proof that physics functions entirely without consciousness or intent.
There is no wishful thinking that can alter the oblivion of death.
4
@John Warnock Evangelicals will flock to whomever is opposed to the Democratic candidate. Early in the process it was Ben Carson till he dropped out.
@John Warnock Evangelism meets the definition of a cult: it limits its membership who believe in the same way, it is absolutist, and it is convinced it alone has the right answer and that everyone else is going to hell.
1
We might consider that the question of race vs. economics has a lot to do with how leaders present solutions to people's problems. In spite of the economic progress the country made during the Obama years, many people, especially in the middle of the country, felt great unease. Their incomes had stagnated, their hopes for their children's future diminished, their towns hollowed out. Donald Trump came along and said they he understood their problems, and that the cause was Hispanic immigration, and he would fix it. He was the only candidate who indicated that he understood their problems, so they were willing to believe he had a solution. If a candidate came along who said that she understood their problems, and the cause was that bankers and corporations were keeping all the money for themselves, these people in distress would have just as likely accepted that as a solution. That was (and is) the appeal of people like Sanders and Warren. It worked quite well in the early part of the 20th century when progessive policies were adopted in the country. And it can work again for Democrats in the future. Wisconsin used to be quite a liberal place. While racism and xenopobia are baked into the DNA of all human beings, and can be brought to the surface by demogogues, that is not the only path to political success.
10
@David "Racism and xenophobia baked into the DNA of all human beings...?" Hmm. Where on the DNA strand do we find that particular "racist" component?
Never trust academic studies in the social sciences. That's been my takeaway from both the "grievance journal" prank and the total lack of scientific rigor involved in their research. Controlling variables is almost impossible in those fields.
3
@vineyridge
Yours is a simplistic and knee-jerk reaction, vineyridge. A more careful way to look at academic social science research, and at journalistic summaries and op-eds, is critically. Examine the assumptions, the argumentation, the evidence. Then you'll see that some are convincing and others are not. In any case, you'll doubtless come up with further questions and, hopefully, search for further answers--which together are the point of good research and presentation.
It's not white identity, it's American identity. Trump has tapped into the white aspect, but in reality, almost all Americans (of all races and ethnicity) have more in common with each other than they do with many of our new residents. Ask a black resident of an inner city how much they identity with someone who comes from Guatemala. They have far more in common with a blue collar guy from small town in Idaho. Because of the incredible number of people we have added to the u.s. in the last several decades (the most ever in that amount of time) there is not only less asymilation but less need to. There are now enclaves that look and act more like parts of the third world that these people have come from than the u.s.
13
@Al Have you been to a city before? The best part of visiting cities is the culturally diverse parts that make you feel like you are visiting another country. This IS the America I love.
This has been occurring for centuries, not just recently. For example, many major American cities have ethnic enclaves, i.e. Chinatown, German Village, etc where the home country language and customs are alive and well. These folks are no more bent on assimilating than the Cubans in Miami or the Iraqi Chaldeans in east county San Diego. Regardless of facts, the myth persists that everyone who came in the past assimilates while the newcomers don’t.
1
@SDTrueman. Funny. When I go to lowes or a hospital for example I don't see signs in : Iraqi, german, or really any language except English and Spanish. Are you sure they are asymilating like they have in the past or is just the over whelming numbers of Hispanics we get now? While were at it, the left keeps going on about "diversity" there is nothing diverse about the majority of immigrants that now a days come from basically the same ethnicity.we are becoming like Canada a bicultural society not a diverse one.
1
I think Mr. Douthat ignores an overriding fact about Trump's victory. Sure, his rants against globalization and immigration struck a nerve, but what really galvanized people was his take-no-prisoners personality (so different from his polite predecessor, Mitt Romney). It was Trump, the tell-it-like-it-is strongman vs. Clinton, the shifty deceiver (a trope with Biblical roots that go back to Eve). And the contrast with Obama, a cool, cerebral "leader from behind," also boosted Trump's appeal. Pundits are paying too much attention to policy differences. (A lot of midterm Trump voters also supported the key provisions in "Obamacare.") In today's tribal world, it's the charismatic figure at the head of the tribe who may ultimately make the difference. Politics has never been more personal.
21
@Charles Michener where you (and apparently, many Americans) see a strongman, I see a complete buffoon.
Trump looks like a modern-day Mussolini, sticking his chin out while preening before the adoring crowds. Mussolini helped cause a lot of havoc in the world during the first half of the 20th century, but the last view of him is hanging by his feet in a public square after he was captured and shot (not suggesting that anything like this should happen to anyone today, especially Trump).
People are drawn to charismatic clownish jerks, who rarely try to do the right thing.
@Charles Michener
I seriously question the thought process of anyone who found tRump "charismatic". He is a bombastic, repulsive pig. And that's insulting the pig.
1
I have decided not to have a door to my apartment. There will be no door, but of course those who are not invited cannot stay. So if they do come in, I ask them to fill out certain forms explaining why they want to stay. It takes six months for them to fill out the forms and six more months for me to read them. Then after I decide whether they can stay, they have six months to appeal and I get six months to rule on the appeal. During these two years, they are entitled to make use of the food in my refrigerator and if they have a medical problem, I am required to pay for their medical care.
This is a perfectly efficient and humane system and I have absolutely no idea why Trump wants to replace this humane and efficient system by installing a door! (smile).
12
@Ludwig Dear Ludwig: Good satire!
I assume your point is we have an inherant right to control our borders. Perhaps the occasionally over-the-top rhetoric from Trump and his colleagues is because of the rampant failure to control our borders up to now! We had better know Spanish if we want to get along, even here in Missouri!
5
@Ludwig. We live in a world and nation with a Permanent over supply of people and labor. At 330 million and the highest co2 production per capita, we and the planet simply do not any more Americans ( from any source), yet the left realizes that immigration is there only source of their new majority so they push for ever more immigrants at the expense of the country and the planet. You can be a "progressive" and not be for mass immigration.
5
@Ludwig You’ll notice that Trump hasn’t actually proposed any solution other than the least effective one: building a wall. Will it run down the middle of the Rio Grande River? Will it be tunnel- and ladder-proof? Are there no boats or airplanes in Mexico? How does a wall stop the drugs that are mostly smuggled in through official border crossings? And half of the immigrants who are here illegally came here legally and overstayed their visas — how does a wall fix that?
On the other hand, there are entire industries — agriculture, construction contracting, meatpacking — that profit mightily from exploiting immigrants who are here illegally. Most are dominated by Republicans. Has Trump lifted a finger against them to prevent them from paying immigrants to be here illegally? Of course not.
Trump is not serious about curbing illegal immigration — only about using it as a cudgel against Democrats for political gain.
16
Why see these as competing theories? Each is perspective is shared to some degree by Trump voters, and the two views, fueled by emotion, leverage if not multiply, to solidify Trump support in a significant slice of the electorate. The fact that when one leg is pulled out from this platform, especially the economic one, race no longer has the multiplier effect that economics does. Ross forgets all those quiet Trump voters who are pleased with the economic gains they feel they've made, and the reduced worry that comes with it.
3
When you look at which districts across the country went to Trump in 2016, the measure that correlates most strongly is the measure of racism. It beats measures of income hands down. Which doesn't mean there aren't a bunch of folks out there who voted for Trump for other reasons, or that every Trump supporter is racist. But the correlation is very clear. And Trump knows this.
18
@pmbrig and you can prove this correlation how?
1
It is not possible to make this case without acknowledging the GOP weaponization of the Supreme Court. Stacking the judiciary is the #1 reason Trump was elected. White Evangelicals are on record that as long as he gives them Justices like Gorsuch and Kavanaugh they will look the other way when he demonstrates his rancid corruption and lying. Ross - religion and the Supreme Court! You mentioned neither here and this part of white identity weighs heavily in any calculus on this issue. Do you honestly think infrastructure and jobs were #1 in the 2016 election?
23
@Joanna Stasia Correct. Bush v. Gore was a travesty, but 100 years from now we’ll come to realize that Shelby County v. Holder was the Dred Scott decision of our era. It will be Chief Justice Roberts’s lasting legacy: gutting the Voting Rights Act by piously lecturing Congress that the Supreme Court knows how to write legislation better. Now we have mass voter purges and suppression in all the red states, which was entirely predictable but enabled by the Supreme Court.
5
Racial anxiety is a factor, but this article misses the mark when it identifies President Obama as the trigger. This fear has nothing to do with Obama or Black Presidents or even African Americans in general. The fear is aimed at uncontrolled immigration from south of the border. In short, HIspanics, not Blacks. The issue is not even primarily one of race (Spain was and is part of Europe), but language, culture, economics and crime. It does not help that NYT and other liberal outlets keep predicting that "Whites" will (and implicity shoud) be a minority in the US quite soon. It is not racist to not want to be a minority in one's own country. A better approach (if you want to welcome illegral immigrants, and yes, there is such a thing as illegal immigration) would be to emphasize what the Hispanic immigrants share with their European cousins. I wonder what African Americans think of illegal Hispanic immigration. They stand to become even more of a minority than they already are.
13
@John
Dear John, Sorry, but if you were to live in America you would see how specious your argument is. Case in point: my midwestern niece, who is African American and Caucasian in background, is regularly insulted for being Latinx and for being black. The insults are exactly the same. As for being a minority in one's own country, if that is a problem, that it must be a problem for African American, Latinx-American, Asian American, and Native American citizens, too, must it not? It can't just be a white issue or, if it is, it is a matter of white privilege, not of white "right."
@John: There is just no way the US can resist the rising tide of global population and the ongoing loss of habitable land driven by climate change. Family planning is as essential as technological innovation to prevent global tragedy in this century.
1
@John
It may not be racist to not want to be a minority, but the fact that people are afraid to become a minority in this country says a lot about how they feel minorities are treated in this country.
3
The GOP obtained the bulk of the White Male vote and half the White Female Vote. That is almost all of the GOP vote.
I have no idea what Ross is trying to say as Trump was elected into a boom economy that saw low unemployment and dynamic economic growth. It was only two years ago.
Trump managed to skew perception that is all. Trump was elected on lies and nothing but lies and the lies were effective because the lies have been part and parcel of GOP propaganda for over 50 years.
Fifty years of God, guns, low taxes and small government is a simple solution to problems America never had!!!
29
@Memphrie et Moi: The unconstitutional legislation that decreed the US "under God" has only made it passive and helpless.
2
Drinking the Kool-Aid is not just a metaphor, we see it literally with all the GOP members of Congress. In this case the drink is Trumpism and they willingly swallow it. Trumpism is the opposite of the morality, frugality, patriotism, and other virtues they claimed for years, yet they chug it down. That is what is even scarier than President Trump himself.
18
@Bob Garcia When Democrats attack free speech and presumption of innocence, I do sometimes wonder who exactly is drinking the cool aid.
It often looks like it is the Republicans who believe in our constitution. Democrats are always willing to trash it if it helps their political purposes.
1
Americans are intoxicated by money and race. Trump mined these issues in the most cynical way possible. He tapped into a latent fear of the "other" in all its forms, from LGBT to immigrant to black to women. His is now the party of resentment and anger - the opposite of the better angels of our nature.
20
Very thoughtful and thought-provoking column. A few points however:
1) the economic ag regiments against immigration are understandable but based on "alternative facts" --ie, automation and AI are taking away factory jobs, not undocumented persons. FoxConn has to bring over Chinese engineers to staff its ballyhooed Wisconsin jobs for Americans Trump deal. Maybe we should make the robots at least pay Social Security and Medicare taxes at their notional "job replacement" value-- that would kill two debt birds with. one stone. Maybe Trump could even convince folks that the Chinese are paying this tax like he has tried to do with tariffs, which are of course ay by Us business and consumers although most news media p folks are too ignorant of basic economics to bother reporting yet another Trump lie
2) The cumulative racial white resentment of black success culminated in Obama's Presidency (egged on by AM radio provocateurs (a kind word) like Limbaugh, Hannity -- I assure Sean's "America"is lily white --and Savage) but did not begin there: as one white middle class spokesperson pronounced with regret a couple decades ago: "All the super-heroes are now black!' There is no Obama without Tiger Woods the Younger, or Michael Jordan, or Denzel.
3) To get a pan-ethnic populist coalition, the GOP has to stop silently tolerating the radio bigots because they paved the path for Trump's overt rocs and wash them out of their Party. Will they have the moral courage to do so?
8
@tr connelly FYI to point 1, there is in most states, a Business Personal Property tax that is ad valorem on the machinery like robots.
@tr connelly It is perfectly fine to have to have immigration but it must be based on applying for visas and being admitted or not as the law rules. A system of "if you can get in, somehow, then you can stay" is too chaotic.
Secondly, countries which share a border with us have an advantage. But I see no reason why someone from Mexico or Honduras should be able to steal a march over someone from Bangladesh or Trinidad, or Greece. All countries should have an equal chance.
Trump is a terrible salesman for his own ideas and has never bothered to make much of a distinction between legal and illegal immigration. But that distinction and having an orderly immigration system is crucial.
People need to be reminded again and again that von Neumann, Fermi and Einstein were all immigrants but they came in legally. The immigrants in recent times who built much of the country came in legally, bothered to learn the constitution and passed a test on their knowledge. Unfortunately Trump is not the person to make this crucial point. This fact is all important and it is Trump's failure to make this point which has led us into this impasse.
Douthat concludes...
"actual economic populism — with its potential pan-ethnic rather than racially polarizing appeal... I call that good news."
OK.
Please define what `actual economic populism' is.
7
"...primarily motivated by racial anxiety..."
I perceived equal amounts of racial anxiety on the Republican and Democrat side,s with the difference that the latter was more apocalyptic.
3
The problem with trying to figure out whether GOP voters are motivated by honestly-held economic concerns or racism is that the party has a well-chronicled history of racism and giving succor to racists.
So while “studies” can postulate and Ross can speculate, we continue to see GOP-fueled conspiracy theories like the birther nonsense, racist dog whistles by GOP officials and candidates, white supremicists who are not unequivocally rejected (or in the case of Steve King and others, embraced) by the party, and policies that seemingly always disproportionately impact people of color.
At this point it doesn’t matter that they aren’t as overt in their racism as those marching in Charlottesville. They are racists nonetheless.
13
@Jack Sonville "like the birther nonsense"
Actually the first lawsuit challenging Obama's right to run for the presidency was filed by a Democrat. From the Wikipedia:
"On August 21, 2008, Pennsylvania attorney Philip J. Berg, a Democrat[ and former deputy state attorney general, filed a complaint alleging that Obama was born in Kenya, not Hawaii, and was therefore a citizen of Kenya or possibly Indonesia, where he lived as a child"
While Trump did raise the question of Obama's eligibility, he never joined this lawsuit.
1
The very real race issues aside, primary among them Trump's deliberate appeals to white supremacy and his anti-immigration stance toward those who happen to be brown or black, his party might not have had such a tough Tuesday if he had actually acted on the economic populism he promised.
The Great Tax Scam was populism for the rich. Denying healthcare to millions is hardly the cheaper, better healthcare for everyone he promised. He has allowed the Republicans to stupidly blame Social Security and Medicare for the deficit the Tax
Scam accelerated, and his bullying trade tactics have so far brought the American people, some of those foolish enough to have believed his airy campaign promises, far more pain than pleasure.
Except for the nativism and white nationalism, it is evident to many who voted last Tuesday that his bluster is is no more than that.
Bluster in an empty suit, which today I see on the Times front page he didn't want to get wet.
18
As Douthat points out, many Trump voters voted for Obama, so their primary motivation wasn’t racism.
But like so many pundits, he refuses to follow his own argument to its logical end.
Hillary was white. The primary motivation for many of these voters wasn’t racism- it was misogyny.
14
@KST: Yes. But groomed misogyny.
Can we stop using the term "working class" and replace it with something that more accurately describes the people we are talking about? It is antiquated and elitist and these people deserve more respect than this sloppy shorthand.
It is also ironic to be making this point about a column that claims to offer an insightful understanding of these people.
Words matter, and in being more thoughtful in how we label people we may open ourselves to a deeper understanding of them.
4
@Jake Tamarkin. Jake, I can’t tell if this as intentional or not, but your last sentence is the essence of what has come to be derided as “political correctness.” Speaking respectfully of other people does in fact open on to deeper understanding.
@Jake Tamarkin I don't mind being part of the working class. I also don't need to be understood by the intellectual, educated, meritocracy (an admittedly snarky label).
I feel like I'm in that scene from the original Planet of the Apes where Kim Hunter is urging Charlton Heston to mate with a random human female put in the cage with him so they can study and understand them.
Really, guy, I'm not all that different.
1
The prevailing wisdom is that we are awash in racism, many racists, white supremacists, and all the usual bigots. That it is widespread and growing. America is now showing its true nature. Certainly there is much talk about racism and much is labeled racist. But for all the talk and hand-wringing, I just don't see it. What is called racist is so often small potatoes, harming the 'racist' more than any victim. The drunken white woman harassing two Black women waiting for AAA, lost her job and was arrested. We get a lot of incidents like that and lots of interpretations of normal policy or descriptions into forms of racism. Trump's bringing up a question about Obama's birth certificate is very old (from 2008), yet why is it repeated so much? And exactly why is it racist? One can be concerned about illegal immigration without being a racist. There are two groups fanning faux racism. Yes, there are real racists, but they are a fringe of a fringe, hardly enough to count, yet they want to puff themselves up. In that they are allied with Antifa radicals on the left, who want to paint all conservatives and Republicans as racist. Why are we so fixated on something that hardly exists?
3
@wnhoke Trump floated the idea of running for President for years before he did it. He became popular on TV, but wasn't exactly though of as a deep thinker or a political person. Occasionally, he'd take up one cause or another, but nothing had traction. Until birtherism. It made him a national political figure.
Why is that racist? If Obama had the exact same story but with a White father (even from Kenya) it wouldn't have gone anywhere. I don't know that, but would bet my life on it.
Why is it important? Trump learned that he doesn't need to speak the truth as long as enough people believe him and will back him up and that if he repeats it enough, more people will believe it.
@wnhoke Funny, I don’t recall any Democratic President praising folks who marched in an Antifa rally to Unite the Left in which a woman was murdered as “very fine people.” And that is exactly what Trump called folks who marched alongside neo-Nazis and Klansmen to Unite the Right in Charlottesville. Let those who have ears, hear.
@wnhoke It is the ultimate White privilege for someone in Manhattan Beach to posit that racism hardly exists. Racism is much more than bad White people shouting the N-word and otherwise expressing open antipathy towards people of color.
You make some good points in this column Mr. Douthat, and ordinarily I don't agree with you. However there are two glaring points you overlooked. People in this country woke up to what crippling the ACA actually meant to them, especially those with pre-existing conditions. Further, voters were not fooled by the tax cut for the wealthy.
There are other factors as well, such as the vile treatment of immigrants by the Trump Administration. Literally ripping a baby out its mother's arms did prick the conscience of many in this country and make them ashamed to be associated with having voted for this president. Perhaps some who were former Trump supporters were just fed up with the indecency of this man.
With the Democrats in charge of the House next year, I hope that they can start to stem the damage wrought by this president and this administration. It will be difficult with Republicans still having a majority in the Senate, and in the thrall of Trump. They will be unlikely to offer opposition to his demands.
2
I can from India 30 years back on a green card. Worked hard, went to college at night, got bachelor and masters degrees. Worked my way up the corporate ladders, invested in sect businesses and made something of myself. But insane immigration policies resulted in my job getting outsourced to a H1b who I had to train to do my job. Obama and Hilary could care less about these abuses and just encouraged this immigration mess. Trump has taken steps to curtail such rampant abuses and protect the American white collar and blue collar jobs. Democrats need a plan besides, you should have picked a better non-outsourcable major in college.
Trump 2020.
9
@Realist. I’m not sure ho Obama and Hillary are to blame for your plight. Your employer made the decision for reasons of its own. And you made a choice to train your replacement. If you are as qualified as you say, surely you could have moved to another position, thereby making replacing you more expensive and less convenient for your employer. What am I missing in your story?
In other words, in your opinion, you’re one of the “good immigrants,” and you’re upset about the “bad immigrants.” Trump has tapped into your resentment.
1
@Realist
Seriously?
That program started with Bush for starters so you can. Stop blaming democrats.
Ross, you’re so cute when you’re being naive. The “ economic anxiety “ is a fancy pants excuse that intellectuals and pundits use to obfuscate the reality. Trump was, is, and will ALWAYS be about extolling the God-given Right of the White Male, to be the Center Of Amerikan Life, and especially the Power that ensues, and ensures. It’s really that simple, and that profound.
Seriously.
16
@Phyliss Dalmatian
Well said. Truth is the antidote for the our president predicament.
1
So it's acceptable to demonize white males in the same way that it used to be acceptable to tell Polish jokes? In my humble opinion, androgyny is no better than misogyny.
I think what you call good news I call humans stripped of their humanity and acting more like a nomadic tribe grabbing what it can and indifferent to other tribes' sufferings.
The electorate is economically afraid and #45 plays on the fears of negative economics by blaming others—it is irrelevant whom he blames as long as he continues blaming the wrong groups.
He will not blame his lifestyle nor the truly obscenely wealthy.
He was elected, in part, because he managed to speak simultaneously to America's largest religious cult, white supremacists, and those Obama voters who desperately want back the American Dream their grandparents had.
1
The Trump voters I have spoken with all refer to some claim that “others” were receiving handouts that were undeserved, that should have been available to themselves. Those “others” are inevitably non-White and leeching off the then-democrat[ic] (as the insulting far right would phrase it) government. So: Economic uncertainty or White tribalism? Take your pick.
4
@RHJ - Republican leaders, and Fox, continue to claim, falsely, that illegals are getting "welfare." And their voters not only believe it, they "know" it to the depth of their souls. But they'd simply need to look up any of the safety net programs they're so sure illegals get to see that the first eligibility requirement of all of them says "Must be a US citizen or legal permanent resident."
What was it Lincoln said about lying?
"Some of the people" are figuring out that Trump couldn't care less about them as shown by all of the promises he's already broken. "Some of the people" are waking up and seeing the real impacts of his tax cuts, health care mess, trade wars and tariffs on them and their families. The debt their children will inherit while Trump's pocket millions.
People aren't as dumb as Trump and his party of cowards counted on. Here in Arizona our HOR delegation will be majority democratic for the first time in years and it also looks like Kyrsten Sinema make still squeak out a victory for Jeff Flake's seat. Huge turnout in the state. Race played a role but not nearly as much as stark disagreements over policies. Very encouraging!
3
Douthat's comments disregard the dislike of of many voters, especially white working class men, of Hillary Clinton. Any analysis that doesn't factor this in is pretty much meaningless.
2
You've done more than take "swipes at these studies" showing that racism was a primary motivator of Trump voters, you've tried to totally discredit them. Pretending you're "more frustrated by the way they're used by pundits than by the work itself" is preposterous; how people feel about studies has nothing to do with the legitimacy of the studies. You're no different than Republicans denying climate science and then pretending they only attack the science because people insist on using it. It gives you another chance to ignore studies showing Trump voters were always motivated by racism, not economics, and then pretend that it's at most only marginally true. It's no different than Republicans saying that climate change is a hoax, then qualifying the denials by saying that even if it does exist it's totally exaggerated and has nothing to do with human created pollution.
The studies you cite don't say that Trump voters have "a certain indifference to minority concerns," they show that they're primarily motivated by racism. This leads to the second prong of your argument. Trump failed to follow through on any supposed populism because he was never a populist, he always ran as a white nationalist. His hateful racist and misogynist statements and programs were incredibly specific, directly appropriated from white supremacists, while his supposed populism was always blatantly hollow, meant to destroy all programs like the ACA and replace them with a "something terrific" nothings.
4
"A Defeat for White Identity"
I'm not only a white male, I'm an old one to boot, and not defeated but victorious. All this identity stuff is just some window dressing on what actually took place this past Tuesday. It was a referendum on Trumpism and all that he stands for. Which is not what "most" of America stands for.
We don't want a narcissist, we don't want a racist, we don't want a pathetic liar, we don't want anything that Trumpism stands for.
That's what was defeated this midterm.
8
Sorry, Mr. Douthat, but "white identity" remains a potent political force in America. And Republicans know it and own it.
The victories of women and women of color and others more tolerant than the Republicans they ousted last Tuesday night will be tested in 2020. In the meantime, the, yes--"white nationalism" that you sneer at as a lubricant for Republican politics--is alive and well, and, if one examines the party's pickups in the Senate, getting better.
America is a race-driven society. Oh, there are pockets of accommodation here and there. You mention the whites who cast ballots of Barack Hussein Obama (your emphasis) in '08 and '12. But they jumped to the candidate who threatened to shoot someone on Fifth Avenue--unpunished--and loved it. Try turning that reckless boast over and imagine Mr. Obama saying anything remotely like it--and ask yourself if he would have been elected as a result.
It was "white identity" politics that drove them to the polls on Tuesday night. They were the red wall upon which the blue tsunami crashed. Angry at the perceived inquisition of darling Brett Kavanaugh, they came out to protest his public pillorying by the Democrats. Republicans have always found race anger their most useful tool, the most deadly plank in their thin platform of coddling the one percent. They play to race because those susceptible to the undertow of racism know of nothing else to get them to the polls.
So, Mr. Douthat, ditch the congratulations. We're not there yet.
6
"If you voted twice for the first black president, this argument goes, your main political motivation probably isn’t racism." I would concur but trump doesn't appeal to white peoples better angels. Those that still cling to trump I would put in the following groups of white guys a) those that are old and afraid of any kind of change, b) those chronically unemployed but unwilling to take steps to re-educate themselves so that they have employable skills, c) rich wannabes who think that trump wealth will "rub off" on them and d) yes racists.
3
The economy is "healing" because of the actions that President Obama made. Trump should not get credit for this. Racism wasn't the issue in the past election. Misogyny was. Steve Bannon was running the show and he won the poker game that evolved during the past election. But Americans... Republicans, Democrats and Independents must wake up. The current POTUS is NOT a leader. He is a bully. He is a narcissist. He is dishonest. And he will take the entire country down... as long as he can keep increasing his bank account... if we let him. I am inspired by the number of women who won government seats during the Mid Term Elections. We must push forward, we must support ALL the journalists who work to make our government leaders accountable. Trump is a loser and he must held accountable for his deplorable actions.
9
Trump's base is still primarily a racist and xenophobic one that will often use false economic language to look more rational. The coal is back kind of nonsense. This time around, Hillary fatigue and incompetence were not factors and the Democrats got more turn-out. While I am very glad this happened, there is still that 40 percent or so of the electorate that is racist, xenophobic, motivated by patriarchal religion, and authoritarian.
4
I would have expected better from Ross but I guess everyone likes to skew information to fit their agenda. For one thing college educated whites believe in facts and fair play. We are educated and are aghast at the current administrations lack of interest in science and facts. Not to mention its treatment of women. Even the women in this administration don’t treat women well. You can go on and on but the fact is Trump is a traitor and a liar and those that stick with him are also. That is what many including the college educated are finally understanding.
9
How likely are the Plutocrats who buy the seats for House and Senate Republican candidates to ever enact “actual economic populism”?
You would have to be some kind of fool to believe that.
1
@Jeffrey Herrmann Democrats outspent Republicans in this midterm.
No discussion of what Trump hasn’t even tried to deliver: health care replacement (tried to gut it); infrastructure (too boring???); and what he did: massive debt and tax cuts for the wealthy; tariffs (taxes) on most of us. Cronyism and anti-experts. And do we disregard the constant lying, race-baiting and sending the military to protect against poor people of color? Too many voters and paid propagandists still do. But many fewer and while personality cults are hard to break, we will not give up on the need for truth and justice to return as the American Way.
2
Almost all Republicans voted for President Pinocchio - not just
blue collar folks. Holding their noses and voting was a colossal blunder. It revealed their disdain for America and Americans.
2
Race or economics or both or mixed up with other things?
Yes.
The electorate is comprised of multitudes of people of differing beliefs, education, indifferences, incomes, professions / lack thereof, cultural backgrounds ... you get the obvious.
Some, call it a third, individuals only care about one or two issues to the exclusion of everything else. They are easy to caricature; rednecks and their guns, urban blacks and victimization, evangelicals and abortion, NYT readers and their cognitive advantages, capitalists and their oppression of labor. Caricature aside, this percentage of the population is one issue oriented and votes accordingly. They always vote one way.
Some, call it a third, are cognizant of the issues, are willing in some cases to make pragmatic compromises so long as one core belief is not threatened. On the socially conservative side, they're more likely to be racially biased. On the socially progressive side, they're more likely to be emphatic about promoting minority social causes.
The remaining third are those who are pragmatic. They are indifferent to the racial dog whistles and indifferent to the cries of victimhood on the part of minorities who won't help themselves. Their issues center on the quality of life for their families, education, the state of the economy for their jobs, and public safety whether that safety is threatened by gun nuts or by gang banger wannabes.
Winning the last third is the challenge for political parties.
1
Getting to the genetic core of what is going on must include an analysis of what the GOP delivers. Guns, unpaid medical bills and student loans. So, strap a graphine bullet proof vest on your six year old for school and stash 1/2 of your take home pay in a medical savings account while paying the mortgage on your 38% underwater house. Conservatives get court appointments while living in a personal sinkhole. Smart?
Good try, Ross. But the R party has been dog-whistling bigotry since at least Reagan.
When Trump’s voters praise him as a straight talker, they’re not referencing his broken promises about jobs, coal, or health care. They love every ignorant bigoted word that comes out of his mouth.
When folks show you who they are, believe them.
3
In this column, Ross Douthat completely ignores an important point: Romney and McCain didn't run on racism. Trump openly did, and he continues to. McCain even pushed back when GOP bigots spouted the Birther lie in his presence.
Not all Republicans are racists, but when racists vote in America, they vote Republican. Trump riles up this ignorant, hate-filled constituency to make sure they show up at the polls.
Trump enjoys being vicious, bringing out the worst in people, and setting them against each other. Besides, his economic policies have benefitted only the rich. It's no wonder he wants to divert attention from them.
5
Douthat is a very astute observer (and analyst of data).
Those who insist that Trump supporters are racist deplorables ignore the economic evidence because it's somehow more gratifying to despise those you feel superior to than to try to understand their grievances. Typical elitist thinking. What else can one call it?
1
@Martha Call it a Democrat campaign slogan.
"...Trump won millions of working-class white voters in the Midwest, the constituency and the region hit hardest by globalization, who had previously voted for Barack Obama...." so one wonders whether race or economics motivated them. A valid question, but I think neither was key; it was war exhaustion. Remember that the first choice was between Obama and Hillary. Obama had come out against the Iraq and this was decisive. I would say the same was true for the election in 2016. Hillary was the Queen of War: Iraq she had supported, Libya she had masterminded, Russia she was plotting along with McCain her comrade over at War Party headquarters. Trump promised peace and prosperity. Hillary promised 20 more years of war and possibly WWIII with her mania over Ukraine, Latvia, Georgia, and increasingly Syria as favored loci belli. McCain had been itching for more boots on the ground world wide. Hillary was dying to get into a tank along with her pal Dukakis. She was even rumored to have had a designer helmet made to order in Paris. I would say that race had little to do with it. This is a smear of the first order against the American people. Michael Moore's analysis of what drove voters is astute. Rightly, he sees it as a desperate call to action by the impotent.
1
The voters who stayed home in 2016 realized that their selfish attitude pro- Sanders and anti- Hillary seated a monster in the White House. The antagonism of Bernie was mirrored in Trump. Trump whipped up fear and gate - and it’s fizzled out. The make America great was shown to be a meaningless slogan as Trump insulted allies and cozied up to killers, antagonized trading partners and demonized the poor and those seeking asylum from around the world. His lies, his lack of loyalty and his crudeness alienated down to earth Americans. His war with California and NY also backfired. He’s a sulking hulk without an agenda other than fear mongering. A wimp in the face of a little rain.
1
Every time I think of the long wars in the Middle East, the gigantic tax cuts for the rich, Trump's ongoing travel to Florida and to golf courses almost every weekend - I think of how that money could have been spent on truly affordable health care for all Americans, better schools, less expensive post-secondary education and state-of-the-art infrastructure. I think this is what is meant by "Make America Great Again" and the time to do so is passing us by. Unfortunately and instead, a small percentage of Americans is benefitting from the wars, tax cuts, and the blind eye being turned towards what really makes a country a great place to live for everyone.
32
The disgruntled will continue to be disgruntled after 4 years of Trump. If they don't swing back to a Democratic candidate they will not have a place to go. Democrats should go after them promising realistic help in the form of retraining for existing jobs, not the return of non-existing jobs. Those who support Trump for racist reasons are hopeless and no one should cater to them. All decent politicians must insist their racism will bring them no comfort and do everything possible to ensure their children do not inherit their prejudices.
13
@serban - Democrats have always supported job retraining. The problem was that Obama had 6 years of a totally Republican Congress who refused to do anything Obama or Democrats wanted. But naive voters blamed Democrats for not getting things done, just because we had a Democratic president. I'll add that I don't know any Trump supporters who don't absolutely "know" that the economy crashed under Obama instead of under Bush and the Republicans.
Donald Trump probably doesn’t even know what the word “infrastructure” means.
Come on. In January of 2017, just before his inauguration, Trump promised he had a secret healthcare plan that would save everybody money and cover every American. It was somewhere in his back pocket. Or a drawer. Or a back lobe of his brain. Or something.
He’s a liar. His promises to bring jobs to the working class were all lies, invented on the spur of the moment to excite the audience. He cares about his hamburgers a lot more than he cares about the working class.
Donald Trump’s “economic populism” always was a sham. It amazes me that Ross Douthat would treat it as a real option, worthy of consideration.
41
@Deborah
It should scare us that many Americans and journalists appease and apologize for Trump's obvious well-documented deceptions.
This occurred in 1938, as Germany moved slowly to fascism yet even Jews there were complacent.
History has lessons we need to read.
We need to see with open eyes who Trump is.
We need to contain his dictatorial authoritarianism.
2
"Racial conservatism" is racism, Ross. Not sure why you're trying to make it sound less bad than it is. Those who voted for Trumpy in 2016* either openly embraced or tacitly condoned prejudice. That cannot be argued.
Also, I would note the dramatic increase in young voters this election. Those who (incredibly, IMO) placed their faith in Trump's economic wisdom - he who inherited a fortune, yet still went bankrupt four times - are just not smart or open-minded enough to adjust their economic opinions when clear and compelling evidence to the contrary is available to all.
"Economic bitterness used to justify prejudice" is what you meant to say, right?
22
@D.B. Cooper:" 'Racial conservatism' is racism,"
That is garbage.
Think of racial conservatism as not wanting forced busing for the purposes of desegregating supposedly racially segregated school systems. Racial liberalism is declaring such programs "too disruptive" and "counterproductive for their own neighborhoods or cities while demanding folks in other cities welcome such plans with open arms and screaming "Racists!".
Another example of racial conservatism is not feeling one bit guilty about forcing African Americans from one's neighborhood due to gentrification. Racial liberalism is expecting other folks' neighborhoods to absorb displaced African Americans and calling those folks racists when they complain or resist.
I understand the temptation to overanalyze the election results in particular, and Trumps effect on voters in general. However, a simplistic evaluation seems more telling - I believe that Trumps effect on most voters is based on his personality. If you are disgusted by his simpering self pity and childish lashing out and attention seeking behavior, you will probably not vote for him. If you find his new approach to governance "refreshing", you will probably vote for him. As I said, this is a very simplistic analysis, but it is more than likely true in most cases because in-depth analysis of policy by the general population does not happen and to be sure does not explain voting patterns.
15
Trump could have played on he economy. Overall numbers favour him. True, his trade war is starting to show signs of damage like Ford’s downsizing and unsold soy beans. Bu overall numbers – whether Obama momentum or anything he did – look good.
Instead his focus was on migration and the relatively insignificant “caravan”. The Democrats ignored this and pushed health – a clear and obvious failure of his to deliver.
The result? The Democrats are, now late results are swinging more races their way, performing at the upper level of prediction. Trump support has hardened in the deepest of deep red states but he has lost senators in significant areas like Arizona and who would have guessed that Cruz would hold Texas by as little as 2.6%?
Trump has always been about identity politics and culture wars and not actual policy (“repeal and replace”: a vacuous slogan with no policy content). The Democrats should heed this lesson and not try to match him on his preferred terrain. If you wrestle a pig in the mud, it will beat you on experience. And sliminess. Mention in passing to catch those revolted by him, then focus laser-like on his actual failures to deliver things people care about.
5
The plight of rural Americans deserves much help from the United States government and Industry. However, Trump only uses this "fan base" down to the over-priced cotton hats he sells at a ridiculous price...while gutting the Department of Education and not appointing the right department head who could bring improved education to rural America -- as well as bring various training programs in alliance/partnership with Industry which would begin to solve some of the dire problems in rural America. Trump is not interested in eradicating his own fan base's dire poverty or in serving to improve their quality of life. In fact, Trump uses the lack of education of his fan base in criminal ways to fan a smoke screen of false issues to incite racism and hatred of others. Trump is no one's savior! And, now, after 2018's midterms, he will not see a 2020 reelection, and he will probably wrangle a pardon, and exit, leaving a greater set of hurdles in actually helping the very people who were used by him. Trump should go to jail for just this, but he will not be punished because he is only talented when it comes to cheating everyone he has ever known...and walking away to do it all over again.
7
Russ — I am not economically threatened by immigration, nor am I driven by this specious concept of white identity — as if many of wake up everyday focused on our “whiteness.”
Rather, many of us are driven by the simple concept of law and order and fairness. Many of us have ancestors who came here legally a century ago. Some of us, as in my case, have a spouse who went through the arduous and complicated process of becoming a citizen. It offends us when others don’t have to do the same.
10
@KJ mcNichols. But of course others do go through a process. I’m lucky. My ancestors all came here before there was a United States, and the native Americans did not have customs officials or border guards.
It is a false premise that hordes of people are crossing the border without vetting. Some do, yes. More likely overstay tourist and student visas, having arrived by airplane.
Rational immigration reform is what we need, not polemics about how I obeyed the rules and others cheat.
9
Please explain who isn't having to go through an “arduous and complicated process” to become a citizen!
Do you really think that citizenship is merely being handed out to people?
Immigrants are subjected to extreme vetting; they were under Obama and are under Trump. Worse, though, Trump is separating children from parents, militarizing the border, and stereotyping and demonizing immigrants. People from violent, crime-ridden, economically depressed, and despotic regions are seeking the American Dream. Trump, though, labels them terrorists and criminals, and is even reducing the number of *legal* immigrants. At the same time, he continues to hire *foreign&0* workers for *his* resorts under a special immigration program when they are thousands of Americans who would gladly take the jobs.
Do you believe that Dreamers should be deported?! That's heartless.
Sorry, but your comment that people can now become citizens without having to go through a rigorous process — or, by implication, that Democrats believe in open borders — tells us more about your own patronizing attitudes than reality!
1
@KJ mcNichols
I hear you. When Senate Democrats offered bipartisan legislation to reform immigration in 2013, the bill was ignored by Speaker Boehner and never put to a vote in the House. So I hope you vote Democratic, so that something constructive (besides a Wall) can be done about immigration.
1
Voting, the outcome of interacting judgments, ranging in types,qualities and levels of accuracy, of what is knowable and understandable, and actual decision making, which is, or isn't, learned from, is a complex process.You have raised two additional complex, interacting, processes: (1) a person's self-created identity-I AM- which is also influenced by a range of valenced identities + -/+ -, which others create, impose and label with, and (2) a person's range of overt as well as more hidden behaviors- doings, not doings, undoings- in their various roles in daily safe-unsafe-experienced-environments, contexts, networks, random or planned situations.
And these words, which can never adequately describe or explain WHAT is occurring because NO word is/can ever be IT, "exist" in a divided nation. United semantically as the USA. Diverse peoples-urban, suburban,rural- experiencing and expressing a legacy and history of a WE-THEY culture. Daily. Which enables violating created, selected and targeted "the other(s)." From its very beginnings. THEN. Until NOW. Racially. Ethnically. Age. Religiously. Gender and gender identity. In so many ways. These interactions exist in the all too often realities of daily uncertainties. Unpredictabilities. Randomness. Lack of total control no matter the types, levels and qualities of what we do.Or choose not to do. On our own, as well as with others. An Obama voter, choosing Trump is as "understandable" as willful blindness, deafness, ignorance.
Excellent analysis. But I think an additional factor in the midterms might be increased and more activated voting by people who didn't like Trump to start with, and have only had their worst fears confirmed these past two years?
I would note, that the conclusion is largely the same: I do not think the big motivator -- for either increased voting by democratic voters or from 2016 Trump wvoters who know have regrets -- is "economics."
So I agree. I do not think the big story here, is that scales have fallen from eyes that Trump is a corrupt plutocrat. Rather, I think his moral crudeness and meanness as express in his incessant, pathological race-baiting, is what has sunk into the minds of many voters.
So yes, this is good news. I believe the story of this election is that voters -- the people -- are signaling a reaction to his strident racism. It is, to put it bluntly, profoundly against who we are as a nation.
And the midterms just gave us a glimmer of hope, that indeed, the People agree. And I would argue, you take away blatant racism, Trumpism collapses.
Plutocracy + race baiting is Trump's brand. It is nonsense on stilts, but you remove one of those stilts, and it can't stand.
I'll take this outlook, thank you.
134
@pjc Your point about his "moral crudeness and meanness" is right on, plus his incessant lying and race baiting is what turned me off too.
13
The biggest problem is two senators for every state. Democratic senate candidates received ten million more votes than Republicans yet the party lost seats. The system no longer serves a nation that is divided into those who embrace diversity and those who don't. Rural versus urban does not explain why my state, New Mexico, is sending two Latinos and one Native American, all democrats to congress. Or how we elected the first Democratic Latina for governor, easily defeating a white man and former Republican tea party member.
5
Trump lost support because he distanced himself from idealistic young people and his shameless attitude towards women. Since the economy is in good shape, and no other significant issues to consider, this election could be considered a protest vote against Trump's personality not his policies.
Basically, the election will have no more impact than an opinion survey. Hopefully, it will help President Trump makes some style adjustments accordingly.
1
LOL! Trump will not adjust anything. He has never had a moment of honest self-reflection in his entire life. He is a crude, ignorant, misogynist, racist who is in it only for himself and whatever adulation and money he can now make off the presidency.
He and his cabinet are the most corrupt in U.S. history. He is not draining the swamp; he is the swamp. (Or, the Swamp Creature!)
I think Mr. Douthat is using wishful thinking in his analysis. Some recognized Donald Trump’s presidential campaign messaging for what it was - white nationalism. It took time for many others to realize the economic populism being peddled was just one element of racist nationalism rising in Europe. Trump was using their playbook then and is using it now. Anti-globalism, with economic populist solutions, is a paper cover for anti-Semitism conspiracies and irrational fear of non-white immigrants and refugees.
The midterms tell me all politics is local. National messaging can only be subjectively inferred from cumulative results. There is certainly no real national mandate for any political majority in Congress after midterms, though one is often claimed. More Democrats won seats in the US House because more voters in congressional districts voted for them. The left’s grassroots organizing exploding after Mr. Trump’s election is physically localized.
There was a national message this year brought to us by President Trump with 24/7 news coverage, using hysteria, conspiracy theories, and lies to whip up frenzy for Republican candidates who embrace Donald Trump, not the constitutional Republic, and not American, democratic, and human values.
A defeat for white nationalism could have been inferred by some if the Trump sycophants running for US Senate had lost as well.
The several decades of narrow-minded conservative, anti-democratic power grabbing will take longer to beat.
4
"Trump's deliberate race-baiting had an activating effect on white anxiety" ....
Of course, this was the foundation for the GOP's Southern Strategy that yielded the southern voting bloc .. the solid south. It rendered the winning template later on for Lee Atwater, the GOP's iconic political campaign architect who refined the Southern Strategy for Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush.
What unites the Trump electorate more than any other factor is fear of white cultural extinction. For the Dems to peel off as many voters as they did suggests something else entirely .. something even more animating than economic and/or racial anxiety. How bout utter revulsion over the moral turpitude of our President?
7
The Mid-Term results reveal a vulnerability in Trumps race game - he’s not connecting with working class whites on economic issues. The Dems are offering healthcare - this is huge if you’re not rich. Democratic gains in the House were modest but in two more years, a Blue Wave seems possible if the Blue Party can connect with Whites who are hurting economically - and most are.
3
Trump won in 2016 because HRC ran against him. Plain and simple.
She rightly or wrongly (I think wrongly/unfairly BTW) is one of least liked political figures of recent times.
Some the popular perception of her has to do with the personality she exudes; some with her middle-of-the-road tip toeing, some with her actual performance.
Anyone in public service as long as she will seem less than perfect - hindsight always a harsh lens and add to that no one really is perfect and certainly not HRC.
For whatever reason she especially turned-off men and even a large swath of women. Call it unfortunate chemistry - call it her own deeds - call it her policies - but MOSTLY call it the superb triumph of the Right Wing propaganda machine!
That amplified her every human imperfection while copiously creating illusions of imperfections really not existent. She was vilified through the years - the RW always viewed her as a threat and preemptively and brilliantly dialed down her appeal for decades.
Prez Trump is the fruit of the RW propaganda machine mostly. It had a bit of help from HRC's horrific campaign and MORE THAN a bit from the DNC that insisted on making "liberal" Identity Politics their focus when it was obviously bad timing to do so.
Pertaining to the latter - a Biden and even a Sanders would have assuaged white male/female insecurity of self, undercurrents of racial unease, and feelings of being left behind.
Trump would not be Prez. The World would be better off.
4
And yet she won the popular vote. By a lot.
@Trozhon
Unfortunately she lost the crucial EC vote - why against an obviously unfit and by all historical measures more interested in profits/his ego than people opponent?
One can argue racism - but really 99.9% of those would vote R anyhow without some offsetting element to blind them to their own darker feelings. President Obama had the personal appeal that made many people more colorblind.
No the accomplished HRC lost because about 100,000 voters in crucial States could not stomach her packaging and to boot lost the thread of her message. SAD - but true.
She should have won the popular vote by over 6%. She should have won the EC by a good margin also.
My point is NOT to beat her up but to implore us to speak more in plain terms about why the D way is the better way, avoid as much Id politics as possible in the campaign, and like it or not present candidates with as much down to earth real charisma as possible.
“But it proves that white-identity politics isn’t simply destiny, that Democrats can reach wavering white-working class voters instead of writing them off, and that if Republicans want to hold them, then actual economic populism — with its potential pan-ethnic rather than racially polarizing appeal — is a better bet than what we’ve gotten too often from his White House.”
It proves no such thing. Don’t try to use this election result to excuse and gain empathy for the Republican voters who gave us Trump. What this election shows is simply that Trump is so bad in so many ways, that even the racism wasn’t enough to put Republicans over the top. In fact, they did a lot better than they should have, given how bad they and Trump have governed.
3
My definition of "populism" is a bit different. It includes both making realistic campaign appeals that address the real concerns of ordinary people and governing with a genuine and sincere intent to do what one has promised. No doubt that is a little idealistic.
In that light, neither one of Mr. Trump's efforts was populist. He and his Trump Republicans did not intend to, for instance, give everybody better and cheaper health care. And his white nationalism was just a bit of sleight of hand which was not realistic and would never have really helped ordinary people.
As Ross notes, a "raft of studies" have told us that racial resentment was the principal motivation for Trump's voters. That set of studies represents, as far as I know, the sum total of the credible studies.
Yes, some white voters might claim to believe immigration represents an economic burden. The CBO itself however tells us that immigrants pay more in taxes than they will ever receive in benefits. What makes those voters so allergic to this truth?
Those voters apparently start with two prejudicial notions: The term "immigrant" means brown person. And brown people are lazy societal burdens. Those voters are consequently easily convinced of what they already want to believe, namely, that immigrants are an economic burden.
2
@Robert - The GOP and Trump and Fox have repeatedly claimed that illegal immigrants are eligible for all the safety net programs. The truth is that the first eligibility requirement for any of those programs says, "Must be a US citizen or legal permanent resident." Yet they've been told the opposite for so long that no one will ever convinced them otherwise.
1
The headline is misleading. The salient issue has always been economic and remains economic in the Rust Belt. Stagnate wages, healthcare spending, and the general cost of maintaining a decent standard of living are the motivators.
The factor Mr. Douthat didn't mention was ... the Democrats MOST unfavorable presidential candidate in history and another Clinton third term wasn't on the ballot.
One more point, the raw feelings Rust Belt voters rebel against aren't feelings of being "Left-Behind," as our elite talking heads love to snort when addressing us. The raw feelings rightly reflect the Industrial Mid-West being Sold-Out.
Big difference!!!
2
So we should be encouraged that something like 45% of the American electorate doesn't have the courage of their convictions, that so many cast aside whatever moral sense they had when the great charlatan came on stage offering succor to their economic distress. Their ready acceptance of someone who has absolutely no moral compass as their national leader - even, no especially, if that reason is economics, brings me no solace. Americans must stand by the very precepts of this country in good times and bad or there will be no America to stand for.
1
Don’t forget that three states elected Trump in the electoral college. He got destroyed in the general popular. Race really hasn’t worked. The electoral college didn’t work.
1
There's no doubt that Trump appeals to a certain kind of nativist white voter but it wasn't that group that got him elected. Large numbers of suburban white women especially in the upper Midwest somehow preferred him to Hillary Clinton who got successfully painted as a secretive, greedy, and condescending candidate. They took a chance on Trump but, as we know from last week's election, have regretted their decision. This is the best explanation for the latest voter swing-it's not race or economics. The Trump reality show Presidency got cancelled due to low viewer ratings.
3
The economic justice agenda of living wages, guaranteed income, strong corporate governance, worker participatory rights, and affordable healthcare, is the only way for Democrats to overcome the Republicans’ “Southern strategy” and win back white working-class voters.
Skeptics point to the narrow losses of two liberal African-American gubernatorial candidates in Florida and Georgia as proof that the liberal approach was a mistake. I disagree.
Before Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum teamed up with Senator Bill Nelson, Nelson had been consistently behind Governor Rick Scott in the Florida U.S. Senate race for months and was beginning a fatal slide. In the end, Gillum polled behind ticket-mate Nelson by a substantial margin on Election Day.
Why?
In my opinion, this was primarily because Gillum and Stacey Abrams in Georgia were the victims of aggressive race-baiting campaigns by Republicans that included racist robo-calls and dog whistles, such as references to monkeys and their lack of qualifications.
Given this racist pressure, it is a major accomplishment for Gillum and Abrams to win more than 48 percent of the vote. In recent election cycles, white moderate Democratic gubernatorial candidates have done worse in these Southern states.
Democrats must maintain their composure and push ahead with the winning progressive economic justice agenda if they are to regain the U.S. Presidency, the U.S. Senate, and majority party status.
3
While millions of voters in 2018 pushed back against the Trump/Republican racist playbook, a smaller number of millions went to the polls and elected candidates whose campaigns hinged on messages of hate and fear.
Desantis in Florida, Kemp in Georgia, the extreme Steve King in Iowa, all were clear and vocal in their demonizing of immigrants, and racist messaging. In some cases, like New York 19, John Faso's racist campaign against the highly qualified and personable Antonio Delgado, did not work.
Every day that Trump and his band of thieves is in office it becomes more visible to the public that his brand of populism does not include health care, infrastructure, government protections against the ravages of pollution and worker injuries, helping young people find affordable housing, a real tax break for the middle class, and improving our pre-school through college.
education.
So what remains of the Trump campaign promises? Making life much more difficult for people of color and immigrants from countries that are not "like Norway", smashing regulations, putting women in their place (working really well with the electorate,) and neverending inspiration for racist trolls on line and violent shooters who have unlimited access to firearms.
Now Trump will spend two more years whining that all negative news is due to (name your scapegoat.) Racial and immigrant bashing are on the menu, but true economic populism was never a choice.
True: don't confuse Trump voters with his rhetoric. However, his economic populism was always a sham. Look who the Treasury Secretary is. The important thing is Trump thought race was imperative. He paid a price.
Voters who live in white communities who voted Obama are still whites not in diverse communities. The world is not fully black or white and these voters could abandon calls to better angels due to economic and social anxieties. Trump also played the outsider card. And race. Voters are complicated.
Once again the author wistfully imagines a political landscape that is democratic. At no point do voter suppression, gerrymandering nor, most importantly, donor dominance enter into this idyllic revelry.
Republicans have boldly lied since Reagan about who they are really championing. But the Democrats have also become the party of oligarchy, but instead by hiding their phoniness. Voters were wise however. This is why Crooked Hillary stuck. Trump pulled the curtain aside.
So huge mistake treating Democrats as a block. Will Rogers once confessed he did not belong to an organized party.....he was a Democrat. So this analysis is missing the biggest story. Where are the Democrats heading? They are poised to be truly populist. The House Dems boldly promise to deal with campaign finance, voting rights and gerrymandering. If they fail, God knows where millions of voters whose middle class free fall defines their lives will land if politics fails them again.
1
As usual, columnists overstep in their analysis and Ross is no different. None of this is about appealing to whiteness - we always have a response in the midterms against the President's party and that is what we got. The issue of appeal is that the very same upper middle class women and some men who have benefited from the economic boom are the same ones who put the democrats over the top in district after district due to discomfort with Trump. Reading too much into this group is a fools errand - if democrats threaten their prosperity they will be back in the booth electing GOP candidates in two years.
Ross argues that Trumps approach should have held the Obama-to-Trump voters if they are truly motivated by racial animosity, yet it didn't. But, the same argument can be made that the strong economy should have held them, if they are truly motivated by economic anxiety. So we are left with Susan from Delaware's argument.........they hated Hillary and she is a woman they have been demonizing for several decades.
2
Please tell me what country with any ethnic or racial majority would be happy to sit back and be lectured to by non-majorities about how they must accept this that and the other. I can assure you not a single country in Asia fits that profile. I can assure you not a single country in the Middle East fits that profile. South America? Again, no. So why should the majority of the US be willing to have their identity skewered constantly by progressives?
NY just doesn't understand.
2
@Brian in FL Fascinating to reverse-engineer your comment's logic. Progressives constantly skewer white identity by minorities ("non-majorities", LOL) lecturing whites that they must accept something. So to you, it's inimical to anyone's identity to be lectured by someone of a more minority racial/ethnic identity. Wow. Racially Hobbesian world you live in. Not exactly a recipe for civilizational success.
But your (maybe?) larger point is true: no civilization I can think of ever transitioned from one racial majority to another, without warfare, epidemic, famine, ethnic cleansing, etc. We'll see if the U.S. is able to civilly make this transition. In spite of mentalities like yours.
Nobody voted for Trump because they wanted a "more generous" version of Obamacare or expanded government welfare. The "economic populist" side of Trump was something we only occasionally saw during the incessant flip-flopping of his campaign. His "populist" proposals were cherry-picked for moments when he was speaking to just the right audience for it. We never saw him try to sell populism to Republicans in Congress, and we never heard a word from those Republicans in support of populism. By November 2016 the "populist" side of Trump was essentially dead, totally absorbed by the central promises of his campaign: building the wall, banning the Muslims, legitimizing and elevating the Far Right and conspiracy theorists and placing them in charge of the government, and punishing the Media and everyone who opposed or hindered the Far Right in any way. You want to know why Obama voters flipped to Trump? It had nothing to do with any perception that his economic policies were anywhere to the left of other Republicans. They voted for Trump for one simple reason: White Identity Politics. Trump made racism okay again. He brought out the white supremacy lurking deep within voters' hearts, and gave them a home where their beliefs would finally be accepted. Under the old GOP of Romney and McCain, there were still boundaries. You couldn't be too offensive. So white supremacists had no real option, just a "lesser of two evils". Trump gave them what they really wanted all along.
Also don't forget that Hillary Clinton was not on the ballot this time. She was popular with the Democrat establishment and activists but hated by a large majority of the general population. Without that millstone around their neck Democrats were already destined to do better this time.
If David Duke ran and focused on economics, would your argument be the same? Just because Trump has found a way to thread the racist needle in a way that allows people to vote for him while giving them cover, does not mean they aren't driven by bigotry.
2
Thank you for this hopeful analysis.
1
Why do columnists continue to call Trump a populist. That word infers that you are for the people and their concerns.
Trump is for himself, not for the population.
Please call Trump what he is. Use any other word but Populist. It is a misnomer.
1
@Jean
It's hard to go against a well-established usage in political science. "Populism" doesn't mean respect for the people, but pandering to a group whom you identify as the "real" people. It's pretty useful, for want of a better term! See the BBC definition: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-43301423
@Seb
Thank you
It always puzzles me when a pundit describes the policy upon which Trump ran in 2016.
He had policies?
He improvised, day to day. He had words somewhat related to economics that made people clap. None of them were moored to anything. Saying you are going to replace Obamacare with something better is not a policy proposal. Announcing that you will make Mexico build a wall isn't either. Anymore than saying you will pave the streets with gold. He gave people license to hate, that was most of it.
Other crowd pleasing words were racist and misogynist.
I find it highly specious to say that immigration resentment is about economics, when it was entirely focused on people of color. The Swiss and Germans who want to move here weren't remotely part of the picture, and everyone knows it.
It puzzles me, how anyone can vote for a racist, without liking racism, or being racist, themselves. I'm not sure that's possible, and I'm not sure that surveys which pretend there's a difference, are any more tethered to reality than Trump's supposed campaign policy proposals were anything more than bald faced lies.
2
I think the lumping of “non college educated whites” into one big pot is a mistake if your purpose is understanding what values people hold to and what motivates them.
There is a vast difference between a non college educated person in a skilled trade and one in a subsistence job. The same is true of those who own and operate a business but lack a college degree. Another large divide would be between those in the same non college educated pot who are deeply religious and those who are not.
If you want to understand red state America you are going to have to understand that faith and how actively they are involved in their church group has more to do with their political identity and values than income, profession or housing. That may not be true in the coastal enclaves where the people obsessed with such things tend to cluster, but it is in much of America.
I am Caucasian- not white- and think the term has become an acceptable pejorative terrm. The same for “whiteness”, which is usually described by people who define themselves as something other than “white”. Most African-Americans would rightly be offended if lectured by others about “blackness”.
Until statisticians & demographers understand the breadth and depth of identity of evangelical Christians regardless of education or income, they will continue to miss the mark. In Red America, the M.D. and the factory worker with a Diploma that share the same faith vote very much alike and share the same social values.
"[N]ot the most optimistic times for race relations in America" is yet another myopic denial of the racism -- the white supremacy -- baked into America's birth and life and fully resurgent under Trump. The people who support Trump's policies especially those elected Republican office-holders who steadfastly refuse to denounce his rancid appeals to white nationalists and who reinforce his rank attempts, pretense free to oblterate the dignity of black people, especially black women, not only reinforce his racism, but their silence is an act of commission. White pundits even scratched around for the passably neutral "tribalism," the new label that barely conceals what it really is - raw racial hatred. The nation's congenital racism lives on because this kind of denial (well-documented throughout our history) fuels its lurking, beastly life. Then there is the focus on white blue collar economic anxiety, as if the ever threatening and realized black American economic devastation were irrelevant to political allegiances. Read your history, Mr. Douthat, to understand how race and the economy can never be sepatared in America. After building its foundations and fighting abroad to keep it safe, black people have always -- yes always -- been denied -- with intention often clearly expressed -- the opportunities to fully enjoy the resultant prosperity. Let's be clear. Trump and his co-conspirators -- both silent and roaring -- are terrified of the inexorable erosion of white primacy.
2
Kind of wordy Ross, but I think I agree with you.
Here is my take on it.
90% of Trump voters are not white nationalists, women haters, anti semites, anti black, bigots in general.
Trump voters fell to the spell of the demagogue. Whether it be the first one Alcibiades in classical Greece or one of the last, Chazez in Venz., their pull is strong.
Many of them are coming around to seeing that Trump is not the savior just another idea bankrupt, ego maniac, demagogue.
However, the lure is strong, the democrats should not run another identity obsessed, never met a war, trade agreement, wall street banker I did not like campaign like Hillary in 2020.
Stress progressive issues that the majority of America want like universal health care, no corporate welfare, infrastructure, jobs etc. etc.
If they repeat the Hillary campaign they are all but doomed to failure in 2020.
3
“At the same time these kind of studies often treat immigration as a strictly-racial issue when it’s understood by many voters as an economic one (which is why African-American and native-born Hispanics can be immigration hard-liners)”
Immigration has more to do with nativism than economics. The premise that the immigrants will take American jobs is a red herring. Americans know all too well that they don’t want the jobs that immigrants will do.
To test this theory just ask 10 Americans to show up at 6 am for work as laborers on construction sites. If they even show up they will be gone in less than two weeks. Nor will they wash dishes or clean toilets.
The real “enemy” are the well off people who hire immigrants in order to save money, and Republican candidates who rant against “Immigration,” because it is a wedge issue and winning strategy, while hiring undocumented immigrants to work in their homes.
And then they give tax cuts to the rich in hopes it will “trickle down,” which it never does, and the voters do not know what hit them because they are distracted by all the talk of building a wall, or the scary caravan of (brown) people coming to invade our country ( and take our jobs).
3
What is “economic populism” if not support for policies and laws that favor white Americans over all other groups? Some Trump supporters may be uncomfortable with the messenger, but they sure do like the message.
3
There is a dangerous phenomenon happening in the United States right now. With very low unemployment and a booming economy America took a huge risk in electing Trump. Why? How could he be any better than George Bush, Obama, or Hillary ? He could only be worse. So why Trump? What is everybody so upset about to take such a leap? I keep reading all the editorials hoping you guys can turn over the rock with the answer underneath it. Another brave attempt here Ross, but still a lofty and blind shot at trying to make sense of the situation. Remember, the President is a reality TV star who would destroy the constitution to save his ratings. This has always been the case. Even the Republican party and his supporters seem to acknowledge this.
There is a complacency, a chronic disconnect of many Americans from the institution of democracy. In the best of times we are rattled and desperate. This does not bode well for our future.
1
Texas and California have been majority minority for awhile. It’s not really that big of a deal.
I’ve seen estimates that, if these two states were countries, their economies would be respectively the world’s 10th and 5th largest. I’m guessing both states also punch above their weight when it comes to GDP per capita and GDP adjusted for purchasing power.
Is it likely most Californians and Texans obsess about racial identity as they go about their day to day business? Some people are jerks but we have to get along and there’s work to be done.
So what’s up with the rest of you, especially right leaning folks in overwhelmingly white states and left leaning academics and media stars?
If you’re a right leaning person concerned about illegal immigration bidding down wages and working conditions, that makes sense to me. But it also makes sense to me that you’d best accomplish your goals by leaning a little further left on wages and working conditions while still opposing illegal immigration.
If you’re a left leaning academic or media star I want to see a lot more rigor and transparency in your studies and inferences. Of course there’s racism, some people foment it, and it has political, economic, and other effects. But Douthat is being kind when he speaks of “a slippage in liberal analysis.”
This ought to have begun and ended with the disclaimer to the effect that all theses and interpretations herein come from guesswork, not actual fieldwork, because Ross Douthat declined any opportunity to actually leave the cocoon he inhabits, and to talk with people who might have enlightened him. It's a variant on the technique David Brooks uses, to read someone else's book and then to quote from it at length, or the one Thomas Edsall uses, to wait until reporting on a question hits critical mass and then to repeat it with The Times' imprimatur.
One has to wonder if you keep the Op-Ed writers sequestered so that their opinions are untainted by reality. Meanwhile, despite what Douthat says his speculations "prove", nothing in this suggests it should be taken seriously as a water-level on this election. He's guessing.
The vast majority of the 1% are white. The vast majority of the 2% are white. The vast majority of the 3% are white. etc., etc., etc.
1
I am very encouraged to (finally) see a recognition that economic anger and frustration played an overriding role for many voters in 2016. And a recognition that not every concern about illegal immigration grows out of racism and hate for people of other cultures.
Does it not occur to progressives that if we are forced to keep bringing in waves of desperate immigrants to fill jobs that are so dangerous, underpaid or unpleasant that Americans will not do those jobs, that we are EXPLOITING the immigrants? The answer should not be to simply bring in more and more desperate people. The answer should be to make these jobs safer and less miserable, and RAISE WAGES. This is the right thing to do, and it can be done.
2
So white identity politics failed to hold Trump's gains. One can equally argue that the trade war against China and Europe failed to do the same. The first appeals to racism, the second to anxiety over the economy and jobs. What do these two facts prove about that thin slice of Trump voters who voted for Obama? Not much.
There is a certain moral high ground and self-righteousness in calling everyone who is against illegal immigration a racist (or worse yet, a nativist), which is basically what Dem activists have done for the past two years.
There is a maddening, continual failure by the politicians and the press to distinguish between immigration, and illegal immigration. The vast majority of Americans favor immigration as written into our laws and democratically decided. But, most Americans do not support illegal immigration, or other forms of illegal activity. Labeling anyone who is against illegal immigration a "racist" or "white nationalist" is painting with too broad a stroke.
Kudos to Douthat for at least pointing out the data, which tell us that racism is not the motivating factor of most Trump supporters. They thought they found someone who would stand up for workers (didn't work out that way) and against illegal immigration (where Trump has been steadfast).
Trump has also, quite rightly, finally stood up to Chinese cheating on tariffs and militarization. These are part of the globalization that has eroded American jobs. Again, Trump has done what others feared to do, but needed to be done.
After Pelosi shut down the government to push the agenda of illegal immigrants, we were all pretty sure where she stood on the issue. Americans don't want more illegal immigrants, they want less.
3
This is grasping at straws. Since President Reagan the economy has functioned to the benefit of capitalists and professionals and NOT the middle and working classes of any ethnic background.
Nothing has changed in that regard since the election of President Trump. NOTHING!
The GOP has long sort to split the economically disadvantaged along racial lines and in TRUMP they found the ideal person to ram home that policy.
The DEMS must stop playing along. Forget identity politics and wage a class war on behalf of ALL the disadvantaged. This is the politics of FDR that ensured DEM dominance for 20 years.
This actually means: strong boarders, immigration reform, gun reform, strong policing and criminal justice reform but above all economic reform to make our capitalist system of creative destruction work for all.
There's another plausible story to the mid-term repudiation of Trump: that those (I'd like to believe) 15-20% of MAGA enthusiasts who do not identify with the movement's vile racial politics have seen through the deception of Trump's (and the larger GOP's) economic populist message. An infrastructure jobs package? An alternative to a health care system that extended its reach, during the previous administration, to many millions? Sensible tax reform, instead of a billionaire's dream come true, and a wider hole in the budget to the tune of a trillion dollars? Sensible trade policy reform instead of ignorant meat clever ultimatums that have cut our annual soy bean exports, within the past six months by 50%, from $26 to $13 billion dollars? It's this story - that a sizable number of Trump's initial supporters have woken up to the fact that they've been sold a phony bill of goods - that was the driving force behind the mid-term results. May the story be enlarged to include those who come to recognize the corrupt, cynical deception at the core of all things Trump - and which has spread a toxic stain throughot the party that enabled his shameful rise to power.
1
No, no, no. The pundits are getting this all wrong. They are hemming and hawing over rural white voters, when rural white voters haven't changed at all in the last 2 years. There is no new information there. White, rural voters voted their racism, simple as that.
The REAL difference in this election was in energizing brand new voters for Democrats. If you have an election with this historic level of voter turnout, you gain MUCH more insight by looking at the reasons the new voters overwhelmingly voted for Democrats.
Republicans can keep their racist base. We Democrats will progress toward the inevitable future of inclusive representation (no racists allowed), as always.
2
Excellent picture of left side of the bell curve.
trump's causing out of control wildfires with his mental and emotional instability, racism, islamophobia, xenophobia, sexism, bigotry, hate, and inciting violence is only part of the problems he has caused. corruption in high places has never been worse than with trump, and with his blatant lying, exaggeration, doctoring video tapes, and conspiracy theories, the white house's credibility is zero. trump has broken many laws-his russia collusion,payoffs to models, and his shady businesses and foundation are a few cases.racism,islamophobia,and xenophobia are not new in the gop.abraham lincoln wanted to deport blacks to africa. ronald reagan opposed affirmative action, and made the 'welfare queens' comment about blacks, nixon made anti-semitic and codified racist 'law and order' comments, george bush sr. painted blacks as criminals with his willie horton ad, and dubya's campaign attacked bangladeshis-brown and muslim, in south carolina. trump's and his administrations many destructive policies in the last two years have included pulling out of the paris climate treaty, trying to scuttle coverage for pre-existing conditions-and health coverage for 32 million americans, rewarding the ultrawealthy,thugs, and tax evaders like himself with a flawed tax bill,worsening economic inequality and the deficit by 2 trillion,attacking and sowing distrust among US allies,and mindless and ineffective tariffs that have only increased the trade imbalance with china and increased china's exports,
1
I am not sure how useful or relevant this kind of dicing and parsing of the electorate and the mid-terms is. The most salient facts of the politics of the last two years seem to me to be that Trump is a demagogue, he won through demagoguery, and the USA is as susceptible to demagoguery as any number of other benighted nations. As for what these facts mean for the future, who can say for sure?
1
More and different people voted. A far more parsimonious explanation, no?
Barak Obama won his party's nomination because his opponent was Hillary Clinton. He won the presidency because Mitt Romney is an awkward stuffed shirt, and most awkward when he's trying hard not to be.
Donald Trump won the nomination by being the human embodiment of a wrecking ball, then won the Presidency because his opponent was Hillary Clinton.
Hillary Clinton was the worst possible candidate the Democrats could have put forward. And, the way she was put forward was resented mightily ("pledged" Super Delegates? seriously?) by a lot of people who had voted for Obama.
The author over-analyzes all the rest of it.
Just as Trump has a desperate need to be the center of attention, Ross has a desperate need to show that he knows more useless information than anyone else.
Ross, it's not about tribalism or populism - it's about Trump's lying. He lied to both groups. The core of his appeal is that he lies, and that he's mean. Both groups want him to be mean to one or more other groups, and it's his pure nature to want to do it. Why the intentional obtuseness?
1
I don't dismiss or argue that identity politics is motivating some folks but this the flip side of what the Obama campaign spoke to the black voter. Now there is truth to white nationalists coming out of the woodwork in certain parts of the country and yes that is a big concern. However the way this is being covered is making some like me, I am white, by lumping whites as white nationalists, is biased and dangerous. Regardless of politics, racial identity is just that, we are who we are not who the press labels us beyond color such as white nationalist just as not all black people are black nationalists. But the underlying premise here implies a racist attitude toward whites, to diminish all whites because of who we are. This applies to all races so don't marginalize anyone because of the color of their skin - it's dangerous thing to do and will set back all of the hard fought gains to fight this scourge.
This piece illustrates why we cannot have a reasonable, logical, civilized, facts-based discussion on race in this country; it is a microcosm of the many sophomoric arguments that serve only to divide, not unite. In the first paragraph, the author uses flimsy evidence to hold the claim that Trump is a xenophobic white tribalist, a claim that should require inarguable evidence, proof. I, like many others probably, once confronting this signpost of hot air, rolled our collective eyes before continuing down the article, which was nothing but grasping at straws, trying to argue Trump's racism.
The core of Trump's supporters aren't motivated by economics, but by anti-establishment anger, xenophobia, misogyny, and racism.
But those who voted for Obama were driven by a decades-long frustration with being left out of the economic expansion, and anger at Obama and the Dems for choosing Wall St. over Main St. In fact, they were so angry and frustrated that they grabbed at the first alternative presented to give a loud "NO!" to Hilary, who, to them seemed like just more of the same. These voters are ripe for being wooed back to the Democrats. That said, it begs the question: do the Democrats really want them?
Of course they want their votes, but what will the Party do for them? Will its leaders actually listen to the fears and concerns of people who have watched their communities wither away? The people who live there aren't stupid, they understand that globalism can't be undone, and that the factories and jobs that used to fuel their well being aren't coming back. But why can't other industries and jobs be created to take their place/ This is a massive failure on the part of both parties, but it's a betrayal on the part of the Dems who once fought for the people in these areas.
If the Dems want these voters back, they can get them, but it's going require that they listen to them. Is that asking too much?
What drives the passion of the people in the caption picture, though? What would motivate a person to go to a speech that is so repetitive, often filled with old and new misinformation and lots of insults? Is is a combination of racial indifference with a so-so feeling of not being economically OK? That doesn't sound very passion inducing. But clearly something is animating these people.What is it?
1
Racism is as American as apple pie.
Like wealth inequality is as American
as apple pie. Like intercultural superiority is
as American as apple pie and finally as
patriarchy, sexual and religious discrimination
is as American as apple pie. They are joined to the hip.
This is deep-rooted and is latent in every American's subconscious to some degree. It helps determines how susceptible we are to the various messaging we receive.
Especially when the majority of us still live in segregated communities. Be it rural or urban.
Looking at the problem from a separate but equal perspective is to view the problem from a atomistic perspective.
It is not easy to fine a solution but it is incumbent
on us all to ask ourselves the two following
questions:
1) How deep are our subconscious prejudices
and do we even recognized them in our daily
actions?
2) Do we see ourselves as team America or
as egocentric individuals living in America?
I believe most know right versus wrong, good versus evil
but when we allow the negative force within our better angel's (subconscious) to overwhelm us because we refuse to confront and refuse to answer these fundamental questions a positive answer is unlikely. The positive aspects
that you see, though they exist are but a small ripple
in this intransigent problem. Leaving us susceptible to the
demigods be they to the right or left.
.
The only meaningful lesson from a "defeat" of "white identity" is that the White Army was not something that anyone should want to associate with, unless they are really fond of intolerance.
Not being a history nerd is just fine, but that absence of information becomes a bit more troublesome when it's being purposefully exploited by agitators.
It's because he appeals to a minority who are happy to have someone give their closeted feelings a day in the sunshine with no recrimination. He has done nothing to bring their factory jobs back and has worked to strip them of health care, and yet they still love him.
We wonder why they are not angered by a swamp that keeps rising, and that is because to a majority of us the swamp is littered with lobbyists, with those who use power and position to enrich themselves.To a Trump supporter, the swamp is filled with liberals, colored people, LGBTQ, feminists, the educated... fir them Trump has kept his promise.
The majority of us can feel economic pressures while maintaining compassion for all people who suffer. I'm tired of making excuses for folks who are manipulated into blaming the wrong people for their misfortunes. Instead of blaming the power of wealthy interests, a party that thwarts any attempts to enhance their lives, they blame people who come here to pick our vegetables.
And then there are the wealthy suburbanites who voted for a xenophobic huckster all for the sake of a tax cut.
What trump supporters, rich and poor, hold in common is a selfish desire to get theirs, a belief that they themselves are entitled, but the guy down the street is a mooch.
Stop giving them credibility. Stop asking us to appeal to them.
2
The average white person stirred by President Trump’s racially provocative rhetoric doesn’t live near a person of color, children don’t attend school with children of color, and does not worship with persons of color. Given the overall racial populations in our country, it would be statistically impossible to ever sufficiently distribute persons of color in white neighborhoods, schools and places of worship so that whites would daily encounter them.
This statistical impossibility suggests that those whites reacting to President Trump’s rhetoric about persons of color are acting on hearsay and other indirect provocations—to our national shame.
193
@A Southern Bro "To our national shame", indeed describes adequately the "man" currently in charge. Somehow, despite not living near anyone of color, I have taught my children, and they have learned, to respect EVERYONE. Shameful for you that you and those around you failed at rearing your children properly.
7
@A Southern Bro
You seem to be posting from a state that just now elected its first African-American to Congress just like deep blue progressive Vermont. In your glass house, you still do not see anything like the reality that is everywhere else. The average Trump voter, whoever that really is, is not the stereotype you cling to. In blue collar jobs and neighborhoods, people live, work, and learn in diverse populations. They do not get to move when they want. The do not have the money to select private schools. They cannot gate their community. Those things happen in wealthy blue urban areas, and are practiced by wealthy blue leftists. How many African-Americans work at Google? Attend MIT? Maybe Bill Russell has some thoughts about social strata in your area. Whatever faults you see elsewhere, I promise they exist right next to you. Be careful when casting elitist stones.
8
@A Southern Bro
You seem to be posting from a state that just now elected its first African-American to Congress. Deep blue progressive Vermont had a black legislator resign under racist threats. In your glass house, you still do not see anything like the reality that is everywhere else. The average Trump voter, whoever that really is, is not the stereotype you cling to. In blue collar jobs and neighborhoods, people live, work, and learn in diverse populations. They do not get to move when they want. The do not have the money to select private schools. They cannot gate their community. Those things happen in wealthy blue urban areas, and are practiced by wealthy blue leftists. How many African-Americans work at Google? Attend MIT? Maybe Bill Russell has some thoughts about social strata in your area. Whatever faults you see elsewhere, I promise they exist right next to you. Be careful when casting elitist stones.
3
I suspect there's a type of white voter that isn't captured by the exit polls because no one asks the necessary questions. I meet these voters in casual conversations all the time. A number exist in my own extended family. And they're all over social media. I suspect they're about 10%-20% of the white population and are exactly the people who swing elections.
I call them the disgruntled. Most are not sophisticated thinkers. They aren't well educated, though a fair number graduated from college. Their experience of the world is not broad and they are not well informed. Most important, though—and because of everything I just described about them—they don't feel in control. Things are happening to them and their communities that they don't understand and that make them sense their world is in decline. They think the system is corrupt and that someone or some group must be taking advantage of them. Because of this, conspiracy theories appeal to them—and, yes, that includes racist conspiracy theories. They are sure someone is screwing them—insurance companies, liberals, politicians (always politicians), big corporations, freeloading welfare recipients, Hispanic migrants, the French—heck, they'll jump at just about any suggestion.
When these voters go to the polls, they are mostly angry. They want to throw the bums out. They vote for whomever best defined a demon and best masqueraded as a saviour. Obama one day, Trump the next. Infallibly, they are disappointed by their choice.
10
Ross, thank you for the insightful analysis and for once more trying to get liberals to understand that opposition to illegal immigration is not primarily fueled by racism; nor are concerns about the current character of legal immigration. If Democrats don't get this soon, Trump will win in 2020. And I'm a lifelong Democrat by the way.
3
@Dave
"opposition to illegal immigration is not primarily fueled by racism"
So you think he showed this because there exist African Americans and Hispanics who take a hard line on immigration?
Seriously? The argument is sophomoric. Ross Douthat himself surely knows better even if some readers don't.
since the time of Lee Atwater and Richard Nixon, the republicans have been targeting white working-class people with considerable success, all the while accusing democrats of playing identity politics. this time it didn't work for them. ignoring or in the case of Trump, vilifying immigrants, Muslims and people of color, can not sustain a national political party. G. W. Bush warned the party about this as did Karl Rove. since 2000, the republicans have only won the popular vote in a presidential election one time, 2004. in that year Bush courted and won 44% of the Hispanic vote. think there's a connection?
4
@gabe You are confused. Lee Atwater was GHW Bush's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheep man....and Kharma gave Atwater brain cancer.... If anyone cynically manipulated the public by using RAcism ....it was Bush....not Nixon.....you've been played.
The problem with many of Mr. Douthat's columns, and this column in particular, is that he presents the reader with a false binary choice. In this instance he presents the reader with the choice of so-called economic politics (or loosely translated: the economic policies of the one per cent), versus racial identity politics, and all of the horrors that campaign strategy employs.
This past election was, if anything, a referendum on Donald Trump and the Republican party. There are many reasons voters did not buy what Donald Trump and the Republicans had to sell; starting with health care, gun control, the continual lies of the President, the President's personal conduct and the list goes on.
Voters generally, don't like Donald Trump. The majority of voters don't like the policies he and the Republican party support. That is why Republicans had a hard time at the polls. Let conservatives and Mr. Douthat think they have an easy fix to the problem of winning elections. The answer is as complicated and as simple as one man, Donald Trump. When the Republicans jettison him and the policies and behavior he espouses, they will have the chance to win elections again.
6
"In what is not the most optimistic time for race relations in America, I call that good news."
Correct! But the man is set in his ways and will never change despite what this last election shows. In your analysis you leave out how Trump lost ground even in such a good economy. Imagine what happens when things start to slide and people lose jobs and economic security. We pray that this doesn't happen because we all know that the man at the helm will be completely clueless as to what to do if an economic downturn occurs on his watch.
10
@Alfred Yul
He will blame it on the Democrats and the caravan!
Mr. Douthat's observations are fair and insightful. And the Democrats would be well to heed them. However, when Trump himself is on the ballot in 2020 (as opposed to middle-of-the-road Democrat candidates for the House who were able to pick up some who voted for Trump in 2016), those Trump voters will come back to him, particularly if the Dems nominate any of the current leading progressive candidates -- Harris, Sanders, Warren, etc.
3
@Uysses
Which candidate would be an acceptable Democrat for you?
According to Ross Douthat: "Running for president in 2016, Donald Trump sold two kinds of populism. One appealed to white tribalism ... the other was an economic appeal, aimed at working-class voters ..."
According to my dictionary, populism means "support for the concerns of ordinary people". It is impossible to consider "white tribalists" as "ordinary people". They are a distinct minority, as reflected by the fact that Donald Trump earned a minority of the vote among "ordinary people" -- Trump won only among the ultra-elite electoral college.
10
One thing that was not part of the midterms was Hillary Clinton. She drove a lot of otherwise democrats into the arms of DJT. People simply didn't like her and couldn't stomach putting her in the oval office. Plus, she is a woman. Leaving out this part of the puzzle led to an over emphasis on race and economics in comparing the midterms vs. the 2016 election.
15
@Susan Read her book "What Happened" and find
out how brilliant she really is.
It is easy in the time of Trump to assume it's all about him (certainly he sees the world that way) but it's not. Voters have at least three choices, dont vote, vote with him, vote for the alternative. The repudiation of the Bill Clinton Blue Dog centrist positions in favor of hard left identify politics progressives is not an alternative embraced by all. I know many who hold their breath and vote against the Left in the same way there are many who vote against Trump.
2
Shall we discuss multifactorial statistics? The discussion about whether economics OR race is predominant is too simple.
A more detailed look at the interaction of these factors (along with a few others, e.g. religious affiliation) might prove more predictive.
9
@Marc
After moving out of the south (deep) 25 years ago, I can tell you one thing...it is all about race...unfortunately.
I agree with you completely. I would only add that Trump showed up in rural areas during his campaign and he still holds his rallies in working class areas. The message they get is here is a guy who cares enough to show up for us; who listens to us.
4
@LBJ Except that he doesn't care at all about them, nor does he do any listening to them or anyone. He simply uses them to massage his own very unwell ego.
2
@LBJ
Because Democrats never campaign in rural or working class areas.
Not so much after inaugurations .. I’m not saying it’s a good thing - it’s an observation. Flyover states, in general, aren’t part of the conversation and maybe that’s a problem for their inhabitants?
Ross, who is going to pay off the debt of Trump’s tax cut for the 1%? When Hamilton advocated having our newly established country assuming the debts of the colonies, he anticipated prosperity fueled by a doubling of the population.
5
How about this, Ross. Trump led those folks to believe that all those non white people were a threat to their economic well being. And they are also being told they are slipping on the demographic ladder. The economic apocalypse is on the horizon. What has he done to make their lives better? He gave a 14% tax cut to corporations and a permanent tax cut to the wealthy that was supposed to lift all boats.They can see how easy it was to make rich folks and corporations much wealthier than they already were. They see, read about, and hear what obscene sums of money (Bezos, et al) are being made off them. But for them at the 11th hour(other than a small expiring tax cut) was a fantasy 10% tax cut that no one else was talking about. No one. And they are not blind to the fact (especially if they are over 40-50, that deficits, created by tax cuts, will eventually have to be closed. When the cuts for the wealthy are permanent and yours are not, guess whose taxes are going to rise to pay for that. OR Secondly, the ACA will be eliminated. Without a mandate, loss of coverage for pre-existing conditions.is the only way forward . Add to this cuts in Medicare, Medicaid ( which is the ONLY insurance that pays for long term care, mental health treatment, and chronic addiction), and Social Security which would then not allow you to retire before , say 80. The only Trumpian answer is to get rid of the competition. That competition is not about to go away silently.
9
I live in a red community in a red county in a blue state. Why is the state blue? Because most of the people live in urban centers where there is opportunity and the economy is doing better, even in downturns like the Great Recession.
Pundits who tell us that the people who vote red are "working class" are making a big mistake. The working class is living and working in those urban centers.
When my husband graduated from high school in 1956, his class was 56 students. Last June, the same school graduated 25 students. To me, that is a significant statistic.
The people who are left are old. A lot of us are lucky enough to have pensions, so we're not poor. The remnants of young people still living here often have a lot of problems: drugs, alcohol, unemployment. It's not 100%, but the proportion of troubled young people is rising.
As they have children, those babies will be damaged because we are so afraid of "socialism" that we can't muster the will to take care of them, or their suffering parents.
Our housing stock is deteriorating. Homes were lost to foreclosure during the economic downturn after 2008. It's hard to imagine who would want to buy those once-elegant mansions where wealthy New Yorkers spent their summers back in the early 20th century.
Farming, dairy, was the backbone of the local economy back then. Most people owned farms or worked in businesses that supported farms. That's gone and no one seems to realize what's been lost.
42
"Trump-Obama switchers were more likely to express racially conservative attitudes and hard-line anti-immigration views than they were to have suffered recent economic setbacks."
Some of us in Ohio have been trying to tell you this for two years. The morning after the 2016 election I told my husband it was all about race and he agreed. We are both born in the state, one of us raised in rural Ohio.
So the next time a white or blue collar worker from the Ohio suburbs/exurbs tells the cable news cameras it is not about race, don't believe them.
It really is all about "white flight"
40
Against my better judgment I voted for Hillary. Economic reasons encompass more than immigration, though that's a big one. There's also health care, and the various entitlements which are issues the Democratic Party generally supports. But I'll tell you what, the harder the Democratic Party supports the issues of the 10% the harder support becomes. Guns, immigration, taxes, minimum wage, these are all issues the Democratic Party needs to consider. Consider how things look from the rural midwest and Rocky Mountain regions. We aren't like Marin or Westchester counties, to accomplish broad social and economic change the Democratic Party needs to establish it's bona fides outside of the coasts.
10
@somsai
Guns and immigration have been losing issues for democrats. Which is why that were not issues for them. Wages certainly was, the min wage has been a strong issue for them.
Democrats have been trying for many decades to make economic issues the message. The problem is those areas vote against their economic issues based on fear of others, which has been used effectively by the republican party.
The dems offer jobs, the republicans offer fear that some other will take away their jobs and so those people vote for fear. Fear, like trump used, usually triumphs.
22
Ross is undoubtedly the best journalist for this very biased newspaper. With that said, Journalist have been in a frenzy ever since Trump was elected. I can never recall an individual so featured in the press or cable news, as has this President . To that point, writing about so called polarity , inequality etc etc. has numerous sub points. The list is long. I say has been deeply influenced over time, by the sweeping changes of Globalization that propelled many to elite wealth status, while millions lost their America, centered around a way of life, and then the Federal Government and the Central Bank, failed to regulate big banks who drove the country into the so called great recession. I still don't think the pundits know who voted for Trump or who will in 2020. These mid terms proved only one thing. These voters hate a person and won without offering up a forthcoming agenda. Watch they will spend a whole year with creating inquiries for impeachment . Which in reality sounds impossible. The swamp thrives and America suffers now to the point they may tune out what goes on.
10
@Dan Green
The republicans have been strong on globalization just like the democrats. This started decades with both parties promoting free trade.
The problem is that most american jobs are lost due to automation. When a machine can do the job better and faster, then people lose their job. This has been a symptom of industrialization since it began. Now we have computers to run the machines.
Until automation runs it's course, which may be decades away, jobs will be lost.
The problem isn't globalization, it's wages, living wages, which no corporation is willing to pay. They make huge sums of profit while underpaying people. Tax cuts for those same corporations only result in greater profit for them, while the rest suffer from that economic policy started under reagan, starve the poor, feed the rich.
As long as we keep throwing money to the rich expecting some trickle down, the rest of us will keep getting the golden shower.
As for the house doing anything, they can't. Anything they pass will die in the senate. And the senate controlled by republicans will not do anything. That's what happens when you have two parties controlling just one branch.
As for banks being regulated, thank bush and republicans who hate regulations on anything, and now trump is doing the same, deregulating everything.
11
@Skip Moreland
"The problem isn't globalization, it's wages, living wages, which no corporation is willing to pay. They make huge sums of profit while underpaying people."
But that IS the issue with globalisation, which makes workers in developed countries compete with those in third world countries who will work for peanuts.
2
@Dan Green Douthat isn't a journalist. He is an opinion columnist. It is his job to have an opinion (or be biased in your parlance) just as it is the job of others on the opinion page to present opinions. Because you agree with him doesn't mean either him or you are right, it means you agree, nothing more.
A problem with Douthat's analysis is the presumption that voters choose a presidential candidate entirely on the basis of the issues that a candidate campaigns on. Presidents are probably elected as much on the basis of their personal charm or charisma as on the policies they espouse.
Neither of the candidates in the 2016 election were popular with the overall public, but even if they both had a similar state of unpopularity, it doesn't make it a wash.
I've not seen an analysis of how the emotional reactions of the voters to the public personalities of the candidates influenced their votes, and it would be difficult to gauge, but it is a mistake to do an analysis that presumes the voters are motivated purely by issues.
If one or the other candidate turned away more voters based on personality rather than issues, which is probably the case, than you really can't know what the numbers mean in terms of the policies voters want.
The same can be said for the recent election where candidates probably often won or lost based on their relationship to Trump. I happen to hate Trump for both his personality and his policies equally, and believe I'd oppose him as strongly even if he had the charm of either Reagan or Obama, but I don't know how often this is the case with other voters.
14
@alan haigh
Clinton received more votes than Trump, which points to the problem of how to campaign for electoral votes rather than actual votes. Further, Trump squeaked by in the three or four states that gave him the electoral win. My point is that heavy analysis is a bit wasted when Trump's win is the result of compromise with slave states at the time of the Constitution's writing. A minority gets to elect the President. Perhaps Amazon should have put their new HQ in Wyoming or one of the Dakotas. Let a flood of more liberal types flip those states. The Electoral College is the original gerrymander.
18
@alan haigh
"the presumption that voters choose a presidential candidate entirely on the basis of the issues that a candidate campaigns on."
Yes! But also, how much do people vote actual candidates and their policies, vs their image of what the party as a whole stands for? This can work both ways.
If Democrats are identified as the party that demonizes whites, males, heterosexuals, etc., and favors minorities over whites, and females over males, gays over straights, etc., then many straights, whites, and white males in particular, have an incentive not to vote for that party, particularly for Congress, no matter what the stated policies or personality of their local candidate.
White identity? How long are we going to deny Trump's words that communicate his actions and attitudes are the clarion calls and summons for the violence off both non-lethal and lethal incidents bloom around the country? At least one recent mass shooter had a van covered with posters, images, and print materials prominently displayed about Trump. Trump is a catalyst for hate and violence, for mass murder. His speech crosses every thin line and we are silent witnesses to the consequences of an ethnic domestic violence that is growing, primed by his "rough 'em up/shoot rock throwers/an invasion is coming rhetoric inciting dangerous mistrust and getting Americans killed. Isn't the death in Pittsburgh of a Holocaust survivor, who survived only to be killed decades later while worshiping in her synagogue, isn't her death enough to end the horrors that follow his words?
81
Trump's indifference to death and honor is witnessed by his dishonor of those veterans who fell on foreign shores when he declined to attend a ceremony honoring them, due to rain. Every other President had a rain plan. Trump stayed home. Maybe the rain caused the bone spurs that got him his deferments to act up.
17
Nicely argued thesis. There's only one problem. Some of us actually know white working class Trump voters, which you can lay odds Mr Douthat does not. It's about race.
406
@RRI I know upper middle income whites who vote and support Trump, and it is about racism. We still have so many,many people in the US who really are fearful of others, especially blacks, that they will do anything to (one) never see one, and (two) never know one. It is fear because they never lived among African americans, worked among them or traveled among them. Unfortunately, we have tried to legislate desegregation and that has failed. Unless some of the fearful citizens live in closer proximity to cities, which tend to be more heterogenous, they will remain as they are. Persuasion does not seem to work.
66
@marian passidomo I agree that race is an important factor. Perhaps it is more productive to discuss unconscious bias or implicit bias rather than racism. These biases can easily be exploited by the likes of Trump, but important to remember they were exploited by Nixon and Reagan as well--the only difference was they used surrogates. For readers who have not done so, I would suggest looking at Eli Saslow's Rising out of Hatred: The Awakening of a Former White Nationalist. It describes how a major white nationalist group has since the first decade of the 21st Century made a conscious attempt to use linguistic strategies to make white nationalism more mainstream and acceptable. They were delighted to see Trump use their playbook when he flirted with a presidential run in 2012. By pointing out what white nationalism really is and how it can be disguised, those who have been drawn to Trump's words will hopefully (as the white nationalist Derek Black did), recognize that the likes of Trump are appealing to our worse instincts.
31
@RRI I know many white working-class Trump voters and, for many of them, it's not about race. Immigration and jobs, yes. But race? Not really.
Don't get me wrong though: they're still crazy to vote for Trump.
4
One other thing the midterms tell us is that our voting infrastructure is as badly in need of repair as our physical infrastructure.
Left to state government with Republican Secretaries of State, it's become harder to register and vote than renewing a driver's license or getting a marriage license.
With elections reflecting a divided nation, we can expect more Floridas with final votes disputed or dubious. The specter of countless recounts and lawsuits loom over contentious votes instead of definitive results. This isn't what we paid for.
There needs to be a Cabinet-level department of national elections that has oversight of federal plebiscites and voter registration. States can conduct state elections but it's clear from the metastasis of vote suppression that uniform standards and federal oversight of national elections need to be established.
A vote is the consent granted by the governed to be governed. It's the single action available to hold those elected accountable and responsible. We have a national system in place to assess and collect taxes. Public revenue is important enough to get a dedicated federal agency, the IRS, to enforce taxation. But not our votes?
America's founding impulse was no taxation without representation. We fought a war and won independence because of that.
They have the taxation part down. They need to do the same with representation.
History says if not ballots, then bullets.
Been there, done that.
96
@Yuri Asian. One problem. The Constitution give states the right to conduct elections in the manner they see fit. What you propose would require a Constitutional amendment.
2
@Barbara Siegman. OR, the Congress should condition money to the States on a national standard of (1) universal registration (2) sufficient precincts and (3) a requirement that every single vote is timely counted regardless of outcome.
9
@David S
A practical approach with precedence. I think you have a good idea. Thanks.
2
First, the whole point of racism American-style is to deflect and belay white working class interests by creating fear, prejudice, bias, and institutional barriers in popular narratives and actions and in state narratives and actions. But the linchpin of American racism--the gear that makes it work, that adapts to chattel slavery (the buying/selling of human beings) to voter suppression (absentee ballots in official envelopes!) is denial--like a shapeless amoeba, denial forms an alternative explanation (alternative facts!) for the action or idea being carried out.
Racism cannot be reduced to an election's results! That denies its birth was economic: the slave trade, the colonization of Africa, share-cropping and segregation in America, the use of police to eliminate black presence from public and private spaces is rooted in economic control and separation. The ridicule of Rep.-elect Ocasio-Cortez for her housing issues and the lie that designer outfits provided for a photo shot were hers (making her appear frivolous and undisciplined) by Fox personnel avoids the question of resource allocation and attacks the working class--and denies the outpouring of resources by the working class for one of its own!
(Part 2 below.)
Voting suppression and monkey business aside, Trump's demeaning discourteous conduct directly aimed at professional black women is racist--but his racism is his choice at to appoint blacks to positions of power and decision-making in government.
21
Errata (above): Trump's racism is his choice not to appoint blacks . . .
Bias and hate make racism cultural comfortable/acceptable by pairing negative stereotypes or even supposed benefits, with racist actions--for example, claiming racist actions have a public benefit (closing polls in Dodge City and rural Georgia to "save" money). So citizens dialing 911 on blacks are only concerned about crime--denying the obvious link between the call and race!
In his own denial, Ross looks off the real features of personal and institutional racism the election exposed. He also ignores its global context and silences the important resistance rising from the grass roots. Using the old paradigm of liberalism, he denies by his silence the new institutional approaches and relationships standing against racism.
First is a new partnership between communities and officials; witness the spontaneous outpouring of good will for Ocasio-Cortez; witness it repeated in the election of black female mayors recently in San Francisco, Compton, Tacoma, Rochester, Baltimore, Atlanta, New Orleans--Louisiana has 19 black female mayors, including its 3 largest cities. Harris County, TX (Houston) elected 19 black female judges; Stacey Abrams created a community base that is willing to challenge the trade craft of racism and expose its faults.
Central to this relationship is the rejection of corporate and PAC money. It leaves no question about a candidate's values and their commitment.
(Part 3 below.)
14
Trump's identity politics pushed many of middle class supporters too far. His administration's massive effort to separate families from children, putting them in cages was so inhumane, cruel, and malicious in its damage to children, it alarmed voters with empathy and decency. Trump's mass attack turned stomachs and brought despair to many souls.
The economy still has no provisions for family wealth; tariffs have raised prices and diminished demand. Black income is still 70% of whites (higher for black women); black unemployment, albeit low, is still twice the rate of whites--a structural inequity in place for over 50 years. (Obama tried to address this disparity by targeting communities with 50 years of 50% poverty with stimulus grants.)
Racism is expensive: the global middle class will double in the next decade (the greatest explosion of wealth since the ancient Silk Road caravans)--yet Trump has no vision or plan for helping US businesses capture expanding markets. He rejects the diversity that is a positive in accessing markets. Instead, he taxes the supply chain with tariffs, raising prices and lowering demand!
For millennials and Gen Xers working in the gig economy, couch surfing, and facing industrial burns and scalds making double espressos, national wealth as GDP has increased, but its distribution has spiked up! Workers can't afford to live in many cities and too often no jobs beyond minimum wage (without benefits!) are being created where they live.
16
There is an unproven assumption that the swing of key states from Obama to Trump is caused by defection by the same group of voters. However, it is far more likely different people turned out to vote in 2012 than in 2016. Some Obama voters stayed home. Trump lured out voters that had no interest in Romney or McCain.
28
After the 2016 election, it was convenient for the GOP to peddle the opportunistic fallacies peddled by J.D. Vance and others. The GOP was in desperate need of reasons to distract masses of voters in the South and Midwest who voted for Trump what they had up their sleeves. With Hillbilly Elegy the hottest hold in public libraries across the land, Republicans could credibly promote themselves as the political party of the workers forgotten during the ravages of the Great Recession.
So what did the GOP do to earn its spurs with workers once their candidate secured the White House and both chambers of Congress? Its first order of business taking away healthcare coverage offered options to the unemployed, underemployed and poor. Next was enactment of a massive, untested tax reform bill that was a giveaway to companies, the very rich, and tax cheats constructed on lies and false projections. While these bills took public prominence, agency appointments were deregulating consumer, banking, environmental, and workers' protections secured just years earlier under the Presidency of a man who actually cared about working people.
And the the coup de grace: anointing and confirming an acolyte of the business oligarchs to tightly rachet a Supreme Court majority who looked to guidance to 19th century to keep those same workers in line. Some Trump voters figured it out in 2018. The GOP and their demagogue's promises during an election were meaningless and poison to their interests.
34
The reason for the fervor of the Trump supporters may not be race, but it's not results, either. Did these enthusiastic folks turn out to say thank you for fixing the roads, bridges and schools? Or was it the deal only Trump could make, getting Mexico to pay for the wall? Was it the better and cheaper replacement for Obamacare, the military parade, the income taxes you fill out on a 3x5 card? Maybe it was getting North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons or China to back down on unfair trade.
With so many achievements, you'd expect people to be too tired of winning to get to the polls.
43
@JR Yes, you are right, getting tired.
I suspect Ross is correct, that a focus on economic populism will do the trick for either party. However the appeal to racism and to other "social" issues like hatred of unions, "killing" the unborn, gays who marry, transgenderal bathrooms will continue to bring out some voters. What also struck me in reading some of these very thoughtful replies, is that a "virtuous" president with the interests of all groups at heart, Republican or Democrat, has attracted the voter in the past to the betterment of the whole Republic and has produced our good presidents even without polarizing wars or economic depressions. God help us though if we should have an "unvirtuous" president appealing to all our worst instincts if the country should land in a severe economic crisis or war, and I will include in that list of perils the one we have now, polarization and demonization.
14
It’s a mistake to think the disaffection of Trump voters must be due to either economic disaffection or racial animosity.
The deepest divide in America runs along rural/urban boundaries. Anyone who’s been to rural towns in America lately can discern the poverty that has taken root there. Trump counties, heavily rural, produce only 36% of economic activity in the US. Trump rural supporters look at the economic advantage urbanites have and they are angry, covetous. Rural America has fallen behind in educational attainment as well, so it has become harder and harder to climb out of poverty.
Moreover, as rural people have observed, their wealthier urban counterparts are very diverse. So, rural animus has grown as those they define as ‘other’—non-white people—increasingly share in the wealth denied to rural areas. Hence, outsized American levels of wealth and income inequality, now spanning a couple of generations, has spawned a toxic combination of both economic and racial grievances directed at urban/suburban America.
63
@Peter Thom:
Your unique point is well reasoned and counters Douthat's main premise.
The rural/urban divide was more divisive than any racial and/or economic issues. Racial and economic issues have also been around for decades but they never caused problems as we see now - even though both inequalities have actually decreased. What made people believe both are causative issues is an illegitimate race-baiting hating president and his party.
Douthat claims, "millions of working-class white voters [were] hit hardest by globalization". This belief that globalization caused the rural working-class's economic decline is contradicted by other more significant issues at play.
These issue include: most rural workers have no college education, rural areas have fewer qualified workers, their rural areas lacked a many of the resources & support that large employers need, these workers expected a salary higher than comparably skilled workers in China/Mexico, workers' unions kept their salaries uncompetitive, and employers everywhere were using efficiency and automation to reduce their reliance on expensive unskilled workers and to "do more with less".
Small employers in rural or semi-rural areas were also inefficient making them uncompetitive, or had unsafe or unethical working environments that the federal government clamped down on.
These workers offered 18th century skills in a 21st century economy. They expected a "developed world" lifestyle but offered "developing world" skills.
19
@Peter Thom
Add to this all of the myths we have created over the years about hard working, God fearing, patriotic "real" Americans in the "heartland".
We have allowed rural people and farmers to present themselves as somehow more "American" than those from urban areas. Farmers get crop supports and that's seem as a good thing, an urban worker gets an unemployment check and he/she is a "taker".
It gets even worse in the rural west when we have to feel the pain of "ranchers" and tolerate their claims on, and abuse of, public lands.
We are all Americans. right now we have too much "me" and not enough "us".
21
@Peter Thom
You've identified the problem!
I hear people here in rural Upstate NY saying all the time that those liberal big city folks take our taxes and use them for evil purposes. There were numerous ads on TV, and the majority of rural Upstate NY is old enough to still get our news from TV, that told us to beware.
It's racism, but racism tinged with resentment at economic decline that many of my neighbors just don't understand. Exploiting hate and fear have replaced policy proposals in the quest to win elections.
Truthfully, I have no idea of what might fix the problems of rural USA, but I am positive that low taxes and individual responsibility are not the answers.
7
Individual health insurance was better for most people before ACA. Now it is worse for most people. For Repeal and Replace. Just repeal and let insurance companies sell whatever they want.
5
@Paul Pendorf The US has by far the most expensive (per capita and overall) health costs in the world. Even public health, which covers only 30% of the population) is among the most expensive in the world. Obamacare partially addressed that and obviously needs a lot of improvements but going back to a pure insurance model will go back to high costs and a large fraction of the population not covered.
The UK spends half as much per capita on health and has better health outcomes – and no one is bankrupted by health costs.
Trump’s Repeal and Replace is a slogan. A vacuous slocan is not a solution.
63
@Paul Pendorf
I am a physician and have worked both in the UK and US. If you as a consumer want to overpay for your health services by both subsidizing others who don't pay and padding the insurance company's bottom line feel free to chose the current US model. Alternatively you can decide to reduce your healthcare cost by insisting that it is paid by a tax on everyone and there is no middleman between you and the health care system. Most people, I suspect, would opt for the second alternative (they do in the UK) but would probably not mind if you decide to try your luck in the market place. Hopefully Democrats will give people the chance to make that decision at the next Election.
103
@Paul Pendorf I'd love to see your evidence. Knowing some people who feel like it's worse is not the same as genuine statistical data. Sadly, it would have to take into account the loss of local health centers and effects of the opioid epidemic.
As far as letting insurance companies sell what they want, I have not a clue how that would benefit consumers. Just imagine auto safety without NHTSA. Or do you think the auto companies would have made autos safer all on their own?
17
I think this is a misreading of the election.
In 2010, the Republicans picked up 63 seats in the House, with 44.8 million votes cast for Republican House candidates.
In 2018, it is true, they lost at least 32 seats . . . . but they won the votes of at least 48.3 million voters. The Trump base was mobilized and came out to vote in unprecedented numbers for Republican candidates and their leader, Donald Trump. They were defeated only because Democrats came out in droves -- at least 53.1 million (and counting) this year, compared to 39 million in 2010, or even the 42.3 million in the wave mid-term election of 2006.
If it's economic anxiety that drove them in 2016, and Trump tossed them under the bus to sign up with the Ryan/McConnell plutocratic agenda, why did they march to the polls in record-shattering numbers, even if those weren't enough?
I think the answer is clear: they love Trump, and they hate the Democrats (and the groups that make up Democrats). That pretty well explains it.
21
I beg to differ. The Republican gains in 2010 took place when unemployment was at more than 9% and had been stuck at that level since May of that year. By contrast, the Democrats picked up more than 30 seats at a time when unemployment is at A historically low 3.7%.
It is astonishing that the Democrats could do so well when the economy is humming along so briskly.
25
@Marc
Isn't it clear why they many/most "marched to the polls" for Republicans? Despite his horrible personality and wall street sellouts, his first two years saw record high employment and the defeat of the trade treaties proposed by Obama and Clinton, serious changes in NAFTA and a trade war with the biggest threat to US industrial jobs: China.
And Douthat is right: immigrants are perceived as (and often are) an economic threat to unskilled and less educated Americans. That's economics, not race. And current analyses point to a much higher legal Hispanic vote for Trump in 2016 than earlier noted. The biggest job-stealing/income reducing threats are to African Americans and Hispanic citizens. this is economics, not race.
@Marc:
trump's behavior is, for any well reasoned justified argument he is presented with, he simply calls it "fake" or a "lie". If he feels "attacked" by an argument or person, he attacks it and hates it. Educated people do not do this. The educated are defined by an ability to look at themselves, and see that they can be wrong - and at such times they replace their own thinking with correct thinking. They are not afraid of being wrong, and can admit it. Trump and most of his supporters are afraid of being wrong. So they deny they are wrong (you have to accept that trump is most definitely wrong sometimes). When was the last time trump admitted to being wrong, changed his view, and apologized for attacking those who said he was wrong? Never.
I believe your analysis is nonsensical. I will give some reasons but not in detail. You use arbitrary quantitative "numbers" hoping they provide meaning. The "number of people who voted" is irrelevant to which party won more congressional seats. That is equivalent to associating "the average weight of voters" to which party won seats. That analysis will also give numbers - republican voters had a mean of 219 pounds per voter and democrats had 189 pounds. Nonsensical numbers.
In elections, voter turnout depends on how much money candidates spent, and the "hotness" of issues. In this election, unprecedented billions were spent, and trump's bad behaviors got out so many.
Please see you can be wrong. Please change (improve) for America.
1
" if Republicans want to hold them, then actual economic populism — with its potential pan-ethnic rather than racially polarizing appeal — is a better bet than what we’ve gotten too often from his White House."
Interesting thesis, but probably wrong. A lot of surveys have shown that it is relative economic status, not absolute well-being, that drives peoples' sense of how they are doing. Working-class whites derive significant psychic benefit from knowing the black and brown people are doing even worse. This is why the labor movement and the civil rights movement never coalesced into a unified front. White union members consistently vote against pro-labor politicians who also espouse racial equality. Republicans have known this at least since Nixon--it is the entire basis for your party's electoral strategy. Surely you know that!
27
@charles I think you're right about "relative" economic status being a critical component. However, I think the relative status that concerns people the most is individual economic well being now as compared to what it was 30 years ago.
Gig economy, student loan debt, lower incomes, less employer retirement contribution, higher employee costs in health care, outrageous housing costs where the jobs are.
3
@charles
“You’ve got more than the blacks, don’t complain...”
These working-class voters are still waiting on the Great GOP Healthcare Plan. They're still waiting on the promised millions of new jobs from the $1 Trillion infrastructure program. And they're still waiting on the policies that promote workers interests over Wall Street bankers interests.
Guess they'll still be waiting on those promises in 2020 cause they sure aren't happening when the GOP controlled Congress, Executive and Judicial branches of national government.
Sort of like those two guys still waiting on Godot.....
120
@GTM
People saw Obama as a disadvantaged person because he was Black and assumed therefore he was for the working man. People saw Trump as a populist and pro-money and therefore he would benefit the working man.
Race only matters in economic terms. Trump blames the "other" for taking the economic pie and security from more deserving whites. Fewer people would bite on that race sandwich if the economy was truly better. It's always "the economy, stupid". Always.
2
If this essay isn't "identity politics", I cannot imagine what else is. We all perceive the world through the same five senses, and respond to it with the same set of conflicting emotions we try to balance through our lives.
11
Trump openly trumpeted that this election was a referendum on him. Apparently there were lots of voters that no longer believe that he alone can fix anything. He is great at division and at using the White House to promote his businesses, but as president he has shown himself to be incompetent. A check on his bizarre presidency was in order and the American people decided to do just that. He now has a House that will call him to account. No more free passes from Congressman Nunes and Paul Ryan. Now Trump will feel the full weight of the House of Representative just as the founding fathers intended.
50
We know Trump's election wasn't about economics for several reasons:
1. The economy has historically performed better under Democratic Presidents, with much greater job creation, GDP growth, and stock market returns. Trump admitted as much in an interview. Why go with the historically losing team if that was the concern? Trump inherited most of his money and has a trail of bankruptcies on his resume.
2. Republicans did their best to hinder the recovery from the 2008 crisis, for their own partisan advantage. They tried to block the stimulus and instead of letting spending rise, they forced austerity and shut down the government, costing us our credit rating. Why let them back in power?
3. Barack Obama raised taxes on the rich to fully fund the ACA, which expanded healthcare to 20 million people. Rational people would be thrilled at that result.
4. The economy had essentially recovered by May 2014, when the number of people with jobs hit its pre-crisis record level. The stock market and household wealth were in record territory after 2013. The budget deficit was slightly below historical average as a % GDP in 2014, another excellent indicator of a healthy economy. We had a 5.1% GDP growth quarter in 2014, far better than Trump's best so far.
5. Despite 7 million job openings, Republicans have not eased up on their scapegoating of immigrants. This is the real issue. Trump's emphasis on it before the election is all the confirmation we need.
150
The elections in general mean very little Mr Douthat because they are not the result of a representative democracy but the result of the Two-Party-Lesser-Of-Two-Evils-Winner-Take-All system.
14
More like the normal back and forth of local politics that we see all the time.
No doubt that the DNC would love for this to have been a Trump referendum, but, we had that in 2016 and he won it.
This was just people making the usual choices, and I doubt very many color flips had much to do with anything other than typical fluctuations in turnout and general public sentiment within any given district.
6
@Objectivist these were highly atypical fluctuations in turnout.
5
I’d have thought that an objectivist would be able to handle numbers a tad bit better than this, but then Ayn Rand never could manage her finances.
11
@Objectivist
Not a chance. Not even your buddy Ayn Rand would believe that one!
This is more like: "So he actually is the creep we feared he would be--let's not make that mistake again!"
2
The 2016 election had more than one variable.
The first was both candidates had negative approval ratings.
The second followed the first and turn out was quite low for a presidential race.
Thirdly, HRC ran a terrible campaign. For example she did mot make one appearance in WI.
Fourth, misogyny played a role.
Fifth, the Obama, Bernie voters needed specific policies for issues that concerned them. Trump repeatedly spoke about those but of course lied. HRC had policies but they were very poorly explained.
Sixth, job security threatened by immigrants was not an issue here. Every service business here has help wanted signs. These are low wage jobs that immigrants often filled but there are no immigrants to take the jobs.
Every election is unique. Predicting the present or the future by looking at the past is a fool's game.
20
Sure, it’s economic, not racial, mainly. This is 2018, not 1958. The truth is that since Reagan, the income of everyone but the top whatever percent has stagnated or decreased, adjusted for inflation. The truth is that upward mobility is worse in America than in most other developed nations. The truth is that giving money to the super rich only makes them more wealthy, it largely doesn’t translate into jobs that pay enough to live on. The truth is that most adults are worse off than their parents were in crucial ways.
But voting Democratic won’t help. The Democrats are just Republicans who want to keep abortion legal. They serve the same oligarchs their friends across the aisle do, and answer to the same lobbies. This is why Americans will always swing back and forth from Obama to Trump, from Clinton to Bush. Because it’s always the same for us, no matter who is elected. Because the elected officials have no power; they march to the beat of the corporate interests and military contractors who actually run the show. How you get elected, who gets elected is totally superficial. The parties are the same, and all the hatred and ire has been artificially whipped like cream, to get people’s attention.
46
@Mr. Little I believe this nails the truth. But the deeper question for all of us little people is this, when the government no longer works in the way it was created to work is it time for a revolution? What both parties do not realize is they have a common enemy. And that enemy, the government tied to big business, is what is causing nearly all of their issues. Unite against the common enemy and you have the birth of a revolution. This is not necessarily violent, it occurrs when enough people on both sides come together and agree to go after the real target as one.
12
@Mr. Little
Except for Brett Kavanaughs on the Supreme Court. You'll see what a mistake it is to vote for Republicans soon.
In the meantime, the only way out of this is publicly funded election, which, again most likely due to Republican appointments to the Supreme Court, won't ever happen.
See any difference now?
14
@Mr. Little, Yes, it takes big money to win elections so both parties court donors. But remember who passed laws that let all that money into politics to begin with, and who thought categorizing corporations as people was a good idea. Vote for Democrats who will change those laws.
12
It is really time to retire the identity politics meme. Being white, raised in part by a lovely black Woman and my first boss a black man and now with mixed race grandchildren, I am tired of race always being a central issue. For the people I know , some depend on entitlements, for me SS and Medicare, for others disability and some housing and food stamps. And among them there were a variety of votes all with different issue in mind, none of the racial or tinged so.
Having a range of connections, I strongly favor helping those in greater need with a leg up, a pathway to economic success and a good life. Those making it come in all colors. And that is the US and it is getting better but to read the opinion writers it would be hard to know that.
19
A big part of why the white Republican base didn’t really come out is as a result of not much getting done during the first two years. No cuts in legal immigration, no wall built, and no significant demographic success made. That along with the Republicans running some fairly milquetoast candidates and the Democratic Party allowing their candidates not to run on the Democratic platform in rural and suburban white areas contributed to a lack of energy on the Right and a loss of the House. The problem for the future is that the Democrats are going to have an increasingly difficult time misleading white Americans. It is going to become increasingly difficult for them to hide that they are the part for non-whites and is a party that no longer cares about the interests of whites. For how long can a party run candidates that appeal to suburban soccer moms and Honduran drug smugglers, the latter of which is a vital part of the Democratic coalition. Parties must have some kind of identity and the Democratic “chose your own identity” model isn’t going to work long term. It will ultimately have to chose. It will be either have to have some kind of white identity or fully dedicate themselves to replacing whites.
6
@Bob
"Honduran Drug Smugglers". You have drunk too much of the Trump and Fox News cool aid. Go outside of this bubble and may be you will see that the resentment of the white voters (the MAGA crowd) was inevitable as decadence set in and decay of the American Empire began.
No matter how much people shout USA, USA, this trend will not be reversed as long as China spends more than ten times as much per student on education and the rest of the world's population is much hungrier for a better standard of living and is willing to work for less than an average American.
In any American university the student population in demanding subjects that lead to higher paying jobs are disproportionately non-white Asians. The whole Silicon valley, the richest part of US, was built by immigrants, The greatest generation after world war 2 that created enormous wealth through innovation (from antibiotics to moon landing) is gone and has been replaced by the opioid generation. It has made the climate ripe for hate-mongers like Trump.
I see hard times ahead followed by a rebirth through selection of better leaders coming from a more self-conscious population that thinks, rather than wants simple solutions to complex global issues. No amount of socio-ethnic analysis by Mr. Douthat or others is on the point if it does not realize this basic lesson of history.
3
@Bob
The identity the Democratic Party has chosen is an all-inclusive group of open-minded, curious people of all backgrounds, including whites. We use our library cards, sleep with our dogs, and eat ethnic foods from trucks. We laugh with and attempt to learn the languages and customs of Others. We dance to the music they play and they know the words to our popular music.
We cherish the public assets all Americans share ownership of, especially our National Parks, which are increasingly valued by foreign tourists as our best idea. My heart swells with pride to show the world our best. We’re a nation of immigrants, and seemingly only whites view race as that important. Democrats love people who love what we’ve built here. Won’t you join the party?
5
@Bob
It's always us or them, isn't it, Bob?
"Honduran drug smugglers are a vital part of the Democratic coalition"?
Facts matter. That is not just untrue. It's sleaze.
3
I think Trumps success among middle class whites hinged more on his trade stance than his appeal to white bigots. Republicans have mostly been the party of the market and free trade ever since Ronald Reagan got elected. Trump has made a sharp U-turn on this front and the Democrats have all but conceded the issue. I'm a Democrat and I have been wary of the Democratic trend away from economic populism to the party of diversity. I am all in favor of diversity and protecting human rights, but white, blue collar, working stiffs need to be part of that diversity. We make it far too easy for Republican elites to cast us as cultural elites or snobs who look down on bible belt Americans. The third way politics of the Clinton's was an unsuccessful melding of Republican trade philosophy with Democratic ideals of progressive taxation and support for traditional liberal cultural issues like abortion rights, fair pay for work despite your race or gender, and health care for all. We opened a crack and the Republicans drove a wedge in it.
4
@Kurtis E Smoot Hawley protectionism's actual legacy is the great depression.
Feel free to explain why working class whites think this will save them?
How come this appeal fails to attract black or Hispanic working class voters?
How come the free market republicans also fell in line behind Trump....despite his protectionism?
As the studies that Ross disputes have shown..
. race is the common denominator.
The other reasons fall apart.
There is one other fact that Ross hides from.
Since LBJs civil rights act and Nixon's Southern strategy...... No Democrat has ever won the majority of the white vote in a presidential election.
Not even Clinton nor Obama in four election victories.
Trump sensed that racism would be his Ticket to Ride.
He was right.
1
@strangerq
I appreciate your input, but I can't help but wonder why so many working class whites who voted for Obama ended up voting for Trump. I have no doubt that racism was a big factor in Trumps election, but I think the appeal of this part of his message is not as universal among the white working classes as you're suggesting. Certainly not in the Mid West or the North East. In the south, the southern strategy has a long successful legacy that affirms your point, but I believe that the rust belt is more complicated than that. People who used to be able to count upon a supply of good blue collar jobs are insecure about the global economy. Flooding the market with a supply of cheap immigrant labor while you're struggling to find employment puts a face on a problem that is otherwise an intangible and complex issue that defies a single, simple, answer. I believe that managed trade is actually a good thing. I don't think that workers should always have to compete with the lowest common denominator. There should be an international agreement that protects the rights of workers everywhere both in terms of wages, work place safety, and environmental protection. I believe in the global economy, but not an unregulated one. Countries that exploit workers or trash the environment to squeeze a few pennies off production cost should be penalized and that should include American companies that do business with them.
This is a good opinion piece. We are not that monolithic, after all. And that is good for America. Some future leader will take heart from the honesty expressed here and will take on the bullies on the right and the brow-beaters on the left.
We need new leaders. Beto for House Speaker? They can elect whomever they want, right?
5
Between you and me, there are many Trump supporters who are just as well left to their own devices.
Instead of lamenting over how they can be "converted," I'd be satisfied with their "quarantine."
187
@Didier better yet it they dislike the federal government they should not receive SS checks
7
@Didier and the 11 liberals who recommended your comment: keep it up with the divisive and condescending basket of deplorables meme, because that worked so well last time.
“The rebuttal, the case for privileging race, relies on a raft of studies, the most recent one summarized by Vox’s Zack Beauchamp just weeks before the midterms, which show that those Trump-Obama switchers were more likely to express racially conservative attitudes and hard-line anti-immigration views than they were to have suffered recent economic setbacks.“
Yes Ross this view is correct although you don’t like it.
Proof - Trump economic promises vanish into thin air (health care, infrastructure), but his racism grows more vile everyday.
It is the one and only legacy of Trumpism.
Sorry...not what you want to hear, just, what is true.
96
The suggestion by the columnist that the present Trump Republican Party embrace “actual economic populism” to appeal to working class voters is a fairy tale. Fight for a national minimum wage, the protection and enhancement of the A.C.A., the promotion of unionizing, equal gender pay, judicial candidates who are not hostile to labor, etc.,etc.? How does the plutocratic/corporatist Trump Republican Party magically morph into its mirror opposite? Utterly impossible, delusional!
44
@John Grillo, whereas the Dem Party DOES embrace actual economic populism? Their standard bearer wanted a $12 min wage, which has already been eclipsed by many localities. How does the DP finds ITS roots?
1
@ErikW65 As much as I want to raise the federal minimum wage, it is possible to raise it too much and hurt the employment prospects of people who need it most. A $15/hr an hour minimum wage makes sense NTC, LA, and Seattle, but it is too high for much of this country. There are still plenty of cities where a two bedroom apartment rents for less than $600/month. Small towns and rural areas have even lower costs. That part of the country needs a $10-$12/hr minimum. Anything about that is likely to do more harm than good. Once the federal minimum is above $10/hr, it will be easier for high growth, high cost cities to implement a $15/hr minimum.
4
@ErikW65
The national minimum wage still stands at $7.25/hr, where it's been since Democrats last controlled the House. A $12 minimum wage would be a 65% increase and would increase the wages of full-time workers at the national minimum by $166 per week. That is not a trivial increase. No state yet has a minimum wage as high as $12/hr and 18 states are still at the federal minimum. Just because some high-cost cities have already jumped to $15, don't paint Hillary's and other Democrats' support for a $12 minimum as feeble.
4
This topic is only difficult to understand if you believe that people are only driven by one economic-political motive at a time, or if you overlook the draw of racial absolution. It's not so difficult for those of use who understand that it is possible to have several, and even mutually contradictory, motivations at the same time, and that many white people earnestly desire to be absolved of the terrible sins of racial supremacism.
I don't find it at all hard to get my head around the fact that many white voters supported Obama in 2008 because they really wanted racism to be over AND ALSO supported Trump in 2016 because they were disappointed that racism was not over. The overriding constant in this story is the narrative centralizing of white identity and the longing for moral purity.
By way of support of this "hypothesis" I'd gesture towards the strikingly large numbers of white Americans who believe that anti-white racism is now the most pressing racial problem in the country.
Many people seem to have thought that electing Obama was sufficient to end racism and that their voting for Obama was enough to show they themselves were not racist. The fact is that America is and will continue to be racist because that is how it was made. It will take decades or centuries of deep institutional reform and social engineering, possibly helped by a nudge from changing demographics, to deal with this.
16
A voting cohort focused on their own economic concerns, and indifferent to minority rights, could well have found the talk of the caravan motivating. That could be seen as a mob coming to take their jobs, to ruin their economic hopes.
It is entirely possible that they voted for Obama precisely because they were indifferent to him being black. They just thought he got it, far better than his opponents, for their actual concerns.
Democrats project racism onto that, and there certainly was some, but not to the explanatory degree pushed by the Democratic narrative.
Michigan voted twice for Obama, once for Bernie, then for Trump. Now it has elected a black guy as Lt. Governor, and my district elected to the State House an Indian immigrant woman complete with a proud and prominent dot on her forehead. That isn't about racism controlling. One must listen to what they said.
22
@Mark Thomason
The individuals you refer to are Garlin Gilchrist and Padma Kuppa.
The dot is known as a bindi.
Yes, that is progress.
But racism is very much alive, however much people try to minimize it. Witness all of the recent race-baiting and voter suppression this year.
In my opinion, the primary motivation for voting for Trump was racism, not economic interests. (Those who did vote for Trump on the basis of his economic promises should have buyers' remorse by now.)
I doubt that many people see "the caravan" as a serious threat to their individual job prospects. Most of the work that asylum seekers could hope to obtain is the kind that most citizens find undesirable.
By the way, you don't hear much talk of the caravan now that the midterms are over, do you? Isn't that interesting, since it was deemed so dangerous as to require the deployment of over five thousand troops to repel an "invasion".
You would think that our Commander-in-Chief would stay at home to closely monitor the "hordes", instead of going to Paris, right?......
And to do what precisely?....Snack in his hotel room instead of attending a ceremony honoring veterans?....Oh, that's right. Meet up with his Russian handler, and get further orders...Odd. He didn't mention that Wednesday.
Perhaps resources would be better directed toward helping the fire-fighting efforts in California or the areas affected by our recent hurricanes. Or towards promoting new industries and job retraining.
1
@Mark Thomason thanks for another introspective, progressive comment!
It was striking in 2016 that the meaningful numbers of Latino voters who chose Trump closely matched those who chose Romney 4 years earlier, despite Trump's more heated anti immigrant rhetoric. The reason is simple and heartening in its way. American citizens think like citizens.
Immigration is Trump's lodestar. Democrats need to address the issue in a way that respects this country's diverse citizens as citizens.
4
Clearly, in a number of cases many of the white voters that turned away from Trump this election ultimately surmised that Trump was just telling them what they wanted to hear, he had no intention of following through and it shows in the dozens of promises not kept.
An interesting series of polls about voting patterns just completed confirmed, outside of white males over 45, every other single group voted democrat. The 45 and up white male crowd still overwhelmingly voted Republican.
Clearly, the democratic party still has some work to do.
9
@Deus : How about the Democrats nominating a white man who is a retired athlete and a veteran, a man who has been married to the same woman for many years. He should be from a family of modest means. He should be a Protestant from one of the major denominations and a church goer He should also be much younger and handsomer than Trump.
Ross' analysis is well-argued, if we keep it only to racial, immigrant, and economic factors.
But has everyone forgotten that the candidate opposing Trump in 2016, was, well, a woman? And a woman who was not only the first major party Presidential candidate, but one who had been demonized for decades by the right-wing communications hothouse?
I suspect that at least SOME of the voters who voted for Obama twice just couldn't bring themselves to vote for a woman, irrespective of their economic, immigrant, and racial stances. And some who would've voted for a woman weren't going to vote for THAT woman. And, as many have reported, this included a lot of OTHER women (well, a lot of other white women).
Add to that voter suppression tactics in various areas--and the fact that in Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania the African-American voting enthusiasm (particularly among African American men) for Barack Obama did not carry over to Hillary Clinton--and you may have a much more parsimonious explanation for Trump's fluky win.
And, perhaps also a much more parsimonious explanation for how things went Tuesday, and how they could conceivably go in two years. Sure, those other factors probably influenced a good number of votes, but it may be the trees that hide the forest here.
36
I'm unsure that this represents either a defeat for white identity or that the Democrats can reach white working-class voters.
I think the more likely explanation for the midterm election results is that the American voter tends to favor the idea of checks and balances when it comes to voting.
When there is a strong executive from one party in the White House, voters often tend to favor a check on his power by electing the opposing party in the House.
We saw the same thing during the Reagan, Clinton and Obama years.
11
This piece is pretty simplistic despite the $3 words like maximalist. Douthat treats Obama victories as though they weren’t against real opponents in their own time. He is also trying to have it one way or another and then picking the lesser of two kinds of evil: economically shortsighted or racist. Either way it’s condescend. But the ugly underside is his effort to somehow prove there is less racism or sexism than just two years ago. That’s probably not possible to figure out. But why Douthat wants us to think that way seems like a desperate attempt to make potential GOP voters seem more virtuous. What about an honest column about a pressing policy issue unstead of this biased tea leaf nonsense?
19
@Rdeannyc:. How about conceding that many people are racist and sexist i.e. they prefer their own race and sex. And how about figuring out a way to work around it.
Mr. Douthat writes that "...white identity politics failed to hold Trump's gains," but last week's elections provide NO evidence for this conclusion. For one thing, Trump wasn't on the ballot and therefore "Trump's gains" weren't tested directly.
More importantly, "white identity politics" wasn't the only issue on voters' minds in 2018. In particular, many voters were overwhelmingly concerned with healthcare, often as a direct response to Trump/Republican lies (in 2016) about giving America something better than Obamacare. Trump and Republicans tried VERY hard to destroy Obamacare, but they NEVER tried to replace it with anything. Many Democratic gains can be attributed to lower- and middle-income voters' fear/anger over this deeply unpopular bait-and-switch fiasco.
Democratic gains can also be attributed broadly to Trump's "personality/character," which seemed less of a problem before it lived in the White House, and Congressional Republicans' shocking refusal to demand political civility and honesty. Democratic gains in 2018 can also be attributed to the fact that Hilary Clinton -- a flawed candidate in 2016 -- wasn't running this time, either.
With so many reasons -- reasons that have nothing to do with white identity politics -- for voters to look more favorably on Democrats in 2018, there's no reason to conclude that Americans' support for Trump's brand of white identity politics has diminished at all. America remains a racist country.
9
We should hope that the Chief of Staff and the Joint Chiefs of Staff have given the Constitution an intelligent and thoughtful reading, and recently. Donald is already using the military like it was his personal toy set. This cannot be extended much further.
17
@Al Packer: W and Hill's invasion of Iraq was not worse than Trump's use of the military toys? He didn't get us out of Syria like he said he would, but at least he didn't initiate our congressionally-unapproved involvement there or in Yemen. Your sky-is-falling analysis sounds like historical amnesia.
I believe that the majority of Americans are better than President Trump.
Trump won by lying to the voters about healthcare, infrastructure, wages, tax cuts (remember he said the tax cut would help the middle class and hurt people like him) Then when he won, he didn't want to deliver on anything he lied about to the American voters.
So Trump doubled down on racism.
He's thrown aside the dog whistles at this point and just gone all in on white nationalists, but also on violence in general.
The problem is, Mr. Douthat, that there have always been racists, and brutes, among us.
So you might be optimistic, but just two weeks ago 11 people were murdered in a synagogue in Pittsburgh, two African Americans were murdered at a grocery store, and 12 Democrats were targeted by a MAGA bomber.
Then you had Brian Kemp in Georgia target Stacey Abrams with lying racist ads about her being affiliated with Black Panthers and Andrew Gillum was targeted with racist robocalls, complete with jungle noises.
I'm somewhat relieved that Democrats took back the House on Tuesday night, but I worry about the racist hatred and violence Trump has unleashed, without any outcry or protest by the cowardly Republican Congress.
314
@V
I am afraid that significant group of bigots were always there and always voted Republican. Trump just allowed it all to bubble to the surface, the bigotry out in the open ultimately to become mainstream. I am afraid the deep divisions and their repercussions will not go away any time soon regardless of who is governing the country.
33
@V
The South remains the South, and Confederate attitudes remain popular in the rest of the country.
11
@V
Take a walk around any Walmart and you’ll be depressed at the average American; they make trump seem like Ghandi and Steve Hawking rolled into one.
7
This doesn’t mean that the racial fears Trump stoked didn't bring some Republican voters to the polls.
*********
It's called the Republican base for a reason, Ross. It's been bringing them to the polls for decades, beginning with Nixon's Southern Strategy.
33
@Vanessa Hall
Southern cities are no more segregated by neighborhood than Northern ones, so judge yourselves first.
@Vanessa Hall, not sure Nixon (or even the Republican Party) deserves credit for beginning the Southern Strategy. Forgot about A Cuomo's "shuckin and jivin" comment, did you?
If this was a different time we (Californians) could have split. For all the talk, I don't think the confederate states that routinely vote for Trump would take up arms to define the Union. They are generally guys with foot spurs.
I really don't care if Trump is winning because of race baiting or economic nationalism - funny he never calls it that way. That kind of analysis is to fill pages in NY Times or the Atlantic. I just don't want to be part of a Union where by a gerrymandered (though constitutional) electoral voting system, a man totally unfit for Presidency is elected.
Why do a we (and indeed a majority of Americans) have to put up with this system?
191
If statewide contests are any indication— with Trump making the midterms all about “him” — then Trump lost Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which would be an electoral college loss.
Repeat:Trump LOST Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
They voters in these states can see the Emperor has no clothes.
He was going to fix the tax code— remember “only I can fix it” — so, where is the fix? Only the top 1 percent got any meaningful break.
Did the GOP really think the middle class would be duped by s $200 tax cut?
And health care is expensive because LIFE is PRECIOUS, and the rest of the economy is anemic —jobs, but not enough for a solid middle class standard of living.
And where is the infrastructure program?
Except for the already Red rabid MAGA states, nobody bought Trump’s baloney about the Invasion of the Caravan.
48
Identity politics have always existed. They just haven't been called that historically. White male identity has always been favored as the default 'normal' and white male needs, desires, preferences and representation have always been favored. They still are. The fact that when white males are favored goes unlabeled is how privilege works. It's only when women, people of color and the LGBTQ communities assert themselves that it becomes 'identity politics' and is seen as dividing and problematic.
And, Ross, to claim those who are anti-immigration are solely concerned about economics ignores the uptick in hateful rhetoric and harassment toward anyone perceived as the Other.
71
@Anne
Here here. And Douthat is still trying to convince us that white male supremacy is the ‘norm’, and anything else is “divisive”.
4
@Anne, thank you for articulating so well what I’ve been wanting to say!
4
So many here seize upon fairly equivocal results of the 2018 elections as the start of a grand new era of peace, racial harmony and progress--defined solely in Democratic and liberal terms. We have heard this all before, many times; it was particularly striking in 2008. The Republicans, we were told, were simply doomed.
Wake up. This is a process, a back and forth, that will go on for the foreseeable future. There is no grand conclusion to this battle. And labeling every Trump supporter a racist is an enormously effective way to amp it up.
9
@Wine Country Dude If one is a Trump supporter, they may not be racist, but they are complicit. That is the point many of us have been trying to make. Only denouncing the actions of this "so-called" president with words and without actions makes one equivalent to a Jeff Flake, or at one time a Lindsay Graham (until John McCain died).
2
@Wine Country Dude
Sour grapes?
No. Not "every" Trump supporter is racist.
More like "most", I would say.
Sorry. I didn't mean to "amp it up" by telling the truth. More like hitting a nerve, perhaps.
I disagree with your assessment of the election results as being "fairly equivocal". The Democrats clearly did much better. And imagine if there wasn't the degree of gerrymandering and voter suppression that has become the calling card of the Republicans. The Republicans have shown us that they can't win a fair fight. Witness the Florida and Georgia races, especially. (Still undecided, mind you.) The Senate races this year clearly favored the Republicans. And this is where Trump concentrated his efforts. So that Trump could claim a "victory". Which turned out to be a Pyrrhic victory, because the Republicans lost the House.
Your comments seem to mock the ideals of "peace, racial harmony and progress", saying that they are "defined solely in Democratic and liberal terms". Not sure exactly what you mean by this, but I thought that they were values sought after by both Democrats and Republicans.
1
If something isn't done quickly to reverse the appointment of Matthew Whitaker and reverse it quickly, it will be a "Win for White Identity " by Donald Trump who will have finally achieved his oft-stated goal of have a Justice Department that serves him and not the Constitution. The immense danger this poses must not be underestimated. Trump is now calling the shots over the Special Counsel investigation by Robert Mueller that Whitaker will choke off as he's stated, continue to deny press freedom as he just did with CNN reporter Jim Acosta, interfere in the vote recounts in Arizona and Florida, and now feel embolden to carry out his threats to "lock her up!" There is no time to wait until the new Congress is sworn in in two months, something must be done and done now. The best hope is that this Constitutional crisis will be challenged in the court, but so far no Democrats or Republicans have stepped forward and the clock keeps ticking. If no one challenges this, we will slide toward autocracy with Trump declaring martial law if protests continue to occur. As much as I find this extremely difficult to say, on the 100th anniversary of "the war to end all wars" called at first Armistice Day, but now Veterans Day, it may be up to our military to save us from ourselves and the autocracy we're too paralyzed to confront. Perhaps, my sense of imminent danger is heightened by being the son of Jewish immigrants and a Holocaust family, but, after Pittsburgh, it's palpable.
18
@Paul Wortman....Mueller can get any report to Congress. He has a way available, the one used to threaten Nixon with indictment and/or impeachment. We must hope for significant developments. You are right to worry.
7
@Paul Wortman:
Many feel the way you do, but many do not. Trump is heading quickly to autocratic rule, and martial law.
He successfully sent 5,600 troops to our southern border, not for a "caravan," but to learn how defiant the Pentagon will be, how to maneuver our troops, how long it takes, and to get them acclimated to their "mob control" role (later, against "democrat mobs").
He successfully installed a lying SCOTUS justice beholden to him and who holds extreme Federalist views of our Constitution (including his belief that the office of President is above the law).
He successfully holds the Justice department within his power-grab hands.
He has 37% of voters absolutely GAGA over his MAGA, and another 10-15% of independents who he's able to instantly scare using his various dog-whistles. The midterm elections showed this (it's why he now never mentions "the caravan" - he fooled them and so he's moved onto other dog whistles).
In March 2018 Trump said at a fundraiser at his Mar-a-Lago hotel, as revealed in audio aired by CNN: "[China's President Xi is] now president for life, president for life. And he’s great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll have to give that a shot someday." Trump supporters cheered.
Trump publicly told his donors, "maybe" we should remove the 2-term limit on U.S. presidents: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-praises-xi-president-life_us_5a9b5cb5e4b0a0ba4ad406e6
The man is a megalomaniac! An unfit Nero!
1
We have come to where or public discourse has become a source of chaos and misdirection. Trump’s support is predominately white and they are showing that their main motivation is to have their flavor of American culture the official one which assures them of feeling secure and comfortable. They have no concern that being the dominant group would cost them most of their individual rights and freedoms. But Trump also receives support from significant proportions of non-whites. This fact cannot be reconciled by labeling his support as representing a white racial movement. In addition, those who disagree with Trump and his supporters include no small proportion of whites. So when commentators refer to supporters of Trump’s and Republicans’ egregiously racist positions as ‘white men’ it becomes stereotyping. It’s fair to label bigoted whites as ‘bigoted white men, or ‘white supremacists’, but it is stereotyping to use the label, ‘white men’. It will lead people to think that all white people are bigots when they are not.
6
@Casual Observer
"It will lead people to think that all white people are bigots when they are not."
I live in the midwest and most of the white people over 50 that i hear talking in public are bigots. they are always commenting about those people.
it's a fact.
It was interesting to note the contrasts between President Trump's and President Obama's rallies. Those attending President Trump's were mostly white while President Obama's mainly consisted of minorities. Mr. Trump's base still is composed of a majority of white people who approve of his policies and most likely voted for the Republican candidates. They may have lost the house but they gained seats in the senate. It was not a total washout.
3
@WPLMMT
I was at a bunch of Obama rallies and saw bunches more on television. Including the big crowds at his inauguration. What are you talking about? I am a white woman in her 70's. I wasn't the only one.
4
@WPLMMT
It was far from a total washout. This will become more clear when the Notorious RBG leaves the Court.
Need more breakdown to make this argument--for example, differences among white women voters between 2016 and 2018. Further, despite Trump wanting to make 2018 a referendum on Trumpism, state races inevitably follow a different dynamic--especially House districts but also Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections. Even if you compare the total number of D vs. R votes in the two cycles, there is not much that can be inferred re: the current status of Trumpism . If there is anything general at all, it probably has more to do with health care than white nationalism.
CEOs and corporations are dividing us
6
@Mixilplix while the Democrats are complicit with their silence, inaction, and solicitation of campaign contributions from them. The ACA being a contrived kick-back to some of them as well.
After reading the second paragraph, you would think Trump is a democratic socialist. In fact, it was supposed to be Bernie Sanders any way. No doubt in my mind that there will be realignment. Tell me how many people really want to work hard? Most people want to "maximize their returns" ideally by not working much but getting paid handsomely. But the reality is that the "good old days" will never come back because other countries are catching up. US productivity has not increased significantly. Of course Sanders and Trump want to close market and they want protectionism. I think they are wrong. I believe free market force and personal responsibility are the solution. But government must be involved in a different way by helping the left behind. Currently, what we have is crony capitalism. It is unfair and it slows innovations. Sadly, GOP is not really embracing free market force. Regarding to identify politics, blaming Democrats is very unfair. I cannot vote for the party dislikes me. I can only find refuge in my party even though I really don't like the concept of unions. To me, it is such an old concept. Instead, I believe meritocracy. Finally, US politics is totally messed up. It shouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out. What we need is a President with major in Geology, ran a small business, became a mayor of a progressive city and finally became the governor of a purple state. To make America great again, we must bring the can-do spirit back. We must dream big.
4
The GOP agenda, before and after Trump, is to favor the rich. Trump, like Republicans before him from Nixon to Romney, uses social issues to distract working and middle class voters from their economic policies. In addition, Trump lied freely about the economic, healthcare, and infrastructure benefits he would rain down on people supposedly left behind by the global elites and evil Democrats. Trump's racist appeals fit with his personal history, but as importantly, the Republicans want the middle class to blame the poor, minorities, and immigrants for their economic distress rather than to blame the ultra-rich country club Republicans--like himself.
46
Two other factors not mentioned. A lot of Trump votes were also explicitly votes *against* Hilary. Whether outright sexist or the result of years of anti-Clinton propaganda (not to mention HRC's ties to Wall Street and clear 'elitist' neoliberalism), Hilary was a factor for many voters that didn't matter in 2018.
2nd point: anti-immigration is much stronger in less diverse regions. It's not just about jobs, but fear. If it were about jobs, we'd see greater anti-immigrant fervor in areas where immigrants are in fact employed in higher numbers. And let's remember it's not just general anti-immigration but specifically xenophobia against immigrants from Latin America or "Muslim" countries.
61
@Charles David
Clinton’s neoliberalism is a huge stretch. Both Bill and Hillary were against tax cuts, and Bill even raised them to balance the budget.
2
Republicans did better in Obama-Trump districts (winning 6 out of 21) than in Romney-Clinton ones (winning only 1 out of 13). Therefore, it does seem like there was at least some relative consolidation of Obama-Trump voters into the Republican Party.
5
I believe the midterms and every election in the foreseeable future is going to be a defeat for racism and sexism.
It's centuries past time.
12
@njglea
Well, Hillary *is* the most admired woman in America.
That she was unable to usher in the grand new era was because of Comey, the Russians, sexism, the Electoral College, misogyny, obsession with her emails, sexism and unusual sunspot activity (caused, it appears, by the Russians).
2
Yes, Wine Country Dude, and Socially Conscious Women and men across America and around the world have showed their disdain ever since and are showing it every single day.
WE THE PEOPLE owe Ms. Rodham-Clinton a huge debt of gratitude for working her entire life to preserve/improve true democracy- Social and Economic Justice for ALL Americans - and putting herself on the line under horrendous conditions. SHE is helping US change America and the world.
Thank YOU, Ms. Hillary Rodham Clinton!
3
@njglea
You’re an idealist, but you’re my kind of idealist.
1
"white tribalism and xenophobia", "birtherism". Got any other euphemisms for old fashioned racism, Ross?
545
@Richard Swanson Other people have a right to their own preferences.
6
@Richard Swanson:
The whole article is about the role of racism vs economic populism for Trump supporters.
We all get it Richard.
12
People have a right to their “preferences,” but not as a justification for dehumanizing and harming other people who don’t conform to those “preferences.”
29
Rather than triumph about any defeat of white identity politics, it seems more apt to be cautious that it has gone back to a more dormant state. But it can hardly be seen as eradicated and, unfortunately, we haven't seen the last of it. It is a cold comfort to consider how many in this country may not make racist policy their guiding principle, but still are content to support a president who plays on the worst caricatures of African Americans, Muslims and Hispanics, and whose rhetoric encourages the hatred that inspired a massacre in Temple just last month.
16
The United States used to be a haven for immigrants. Except for the Native Americans who came here many thousands of years ago, all of us, or our distant relatives, are not natives.
There is a fabulous monument in the waters off the shores of New York City. The statue is the Lady of Liberty, a gift from the people of France in 1866 to the people of the United States, bearing the inscription that many of us recognize.
"Give me your tired, your poor, your tired huddled masses, yearning to breathe free. The wretched refuse of your teeming shore, send these, the homeless, to me. I lift my lamp beside the golden door".
This gift arrived the year after our American Civil War ended.
I wonder, does our President have any notion of history and the significance of what this statue represents?
The notion of Make America Great Again pales in comparison to the aspirations that our nation held 150 years ago.
Let's hope that these recent elections have served to Wake America up Again!!
8
@David
I find your first paragraph rather telling in that it repeats the often-heard talking point that "everyone else, other than Native Americans, are not natives", while at the same time ignoring the fact that even Natives are not really "Natives" since their ancestors came here thousands of years ago.
3
Well, Mr. Douthat left something out in his analysys. Trump promised disenfranchised blue collar workers a new beginning. He was going to restart all of those empty factories that dot small town America. Didn't happen. Just about every economic policy Trump has enacted has benefited the wealthy class instead.
The tax cut was a big benefit to the 1%. The tariffs are horrible for manufacturing jobs. Their effect is just now being felt. The farmers are getting clobbered, the soybeans are pile up on the ground with nowhere to go. How can they plant next year's crops when they can't sell this year's? The loosening of environmental requirements benefitted the mining company owners, not the miners.
Add all this up, and we have the impetus of what is now called Republican economic populism fading away with voters returning to the Democratic party. The racially motivated voters remain steadfastly Republican. They have found a home there and are quite welcome.
430
@Bruce Rozenblit:
"Which brings me to the recent midterms, which offered a natural experiment in the race-versus-economics question — because, as president, Trump has been more plutocratic than populist on many issues"
Nuff said.
20
@Bruce Rozenblit
The people that farm my property have not yet harvested the corn. It had snow on it yesterday. Not certain why, but the fellow who farms the adjacent property tells me that after harvesting his soy beans, he can find no one to take the crop. There is no more available storage space.,
"Trade wars are good and easy to win'.
Right.
53
@two cents
Well, a Trump trade war is easy to win. For the other guys.
24
Mr. Douthat makes some very good points here. Racism doesn't exist in a vacuum: it has to be carefully taught, as that old Rodgers and Hammerstein song postulated, and the people who've been teaching it are those who inherited the American dream as well as those who've been paid off to spread the message. Keep telling what's left of the working class that the folks who are responsible for their economic insecurity are the black and the brown and, most especially, those who've migrated here with or without our government's permission and they'll conveniently forget who it is who's paying their (insufficient) salaries and issuing the pink slips when automation and outsourcing rear their seductive heads. America's Great White Dope is, of course, the most conspicuous member of this privileged class, so why wonder that he's made such sport out of blame-the-immigrant. It's long been my understanding that "populism" refers to an appreciation of the efforts of those whose labors produce wealth for our country and for its capitalists. Neither skin color nor ethnicity nor religion nor country of origin factors into any of this. And the sooner that Democrats recognize this and embrace the workers without resorting to identity politics the sooner they will once again be taking up the reins of power.
23
@stu freeman:
Racism doesn't have to be taught Stu. Sadly, human beings are genetically tribal, fearful of people who don't look and act like them, and well, fairly homicidal over all. And that's all people of all races.That's why true racial tolerance is a relatively recent development historically.
Don't get me wrong, racism is morally indefensible. But it has to be actively "unlearned" .
I find it curious that pundits have given more ink to the white working class than they do to the working class as a whole. Why the focus on the color of one's skin? I daresay that the black and brown working classes deserve the same consideration and their voting preferences appear to be quite different than their white colleagues.
Also it is also curious to me considering that Trump's victory was razor thin in the midwest that some pundits considered the midwest lost to the Democrats because of a tiny shift in voter preference. Our winner take all electoral college system certainly distorts how pundits talk about election outcomes.
Given the midterm results where the Dems are likely to pick up 40 House seats and made gains at the state and local level in the midwest and other places, I agree that white identity politics was pretty soundly defeated.
Sadly, there is still a pretty large minority in this country who will never accept our multicultural present and future. Trump has brought out the worst in millions of people in this country.
334
@azlib
That "large minority" is aging out. The demographics are irrefutable. The "white" portion of the population will decline to become an ever decreasing minority.
.
That minority status will be reached in between 25 and 40 years. Those under 15 year old are already majority non-white.
19
@azlib-Good points. Also worth noting that voter suppression and flipping votes in a few districts was all it would take to change the election outcome.
17
@HH
Both your and Azlib's point of view is the precise reason that so many White Americans cannot bring themselves to support the Democratic Party.
Don't forget that us White people aren't so stupid that we can't read between the lines.
You may cloak your ideas in benign terms like "multicultural present and future" but the reality is revealed in the lines of your very first paragraph:
"The 'white' portion of the population will decline to become an ever decreasing minority."
Until what, HH? Until we all just disappear?
Sometimes, liberals just don't realize it but you make the White nationalists' arguments for them.
Does the phrase, "You Will NOT Replace Us" make sense now?
1
"Racial backlash against the first black president was more limited in 2016 because Romney didn't play to racial fears, but the backlash escalated, and flipped more white voters, once the next Republican nominee did."
Ross, didn't you mean to say, 2012, not 2016?
I don't agree with your assessment of the midterms because Trump bifurcated his messages, one for America's richest (if you don't vote for me, the stock market will crash) and one for its poorest with race-baiting.
Regarding he latter, who can forget those raucous, mendacious rallies where he screamed migrants were "invading" America, killing and marauding the nation's families, and Democrats were going to welcome them, give them instant cash, and register them to vote?
It didn't work this time because Trump did nothing to increase his finite supporter pool (thank God).
Of course rally-goers would vote for Trumpism, but independents--Obama to Trump converts of 2016--finally were fed up with his lies, abuses of power, attacks on the DOJ, and shunning of allies in favor of autocrats.
In his first two years, Donald Trump did so much he didn't campaign on--while neglecting most of what he did-- that it's no wonder voters wanted to register their disgust over his style and (lack) of substance.
77
The Whites R Us strategy has been the bedrock of Republican electoral liturgy for 50 years; it works wonderfully for them.
And the addition of the Jesus R Us strategy has been a 'godsend' for Republican Machiavellis hellbent on turning America into an Anti-Christ national theme park.
Add in the Guns R Us strategy and the Republican Party has built an impressive national mental asylum across our fake heartland.
The problem, as always for the Greed Over People party, is how to keep the duped masses duped after the campaign is over and right-wing, Reverse Robin Hood governing begins.
Trickle-down tax cuts charged to a middle-class credit card are nothing less than 0.1% bladder fluid...and everyone knows it except those whose IQs have sunk below room temperature.
Shredding the ACA to bits and pieces and replacing it with unregulated 'free-market' healthcare extortion is essentially a Republican euthanasia Death Panel for the unrich.
Abandoning the nation's infrastructure for 0.1% infrastructure is a 3rd-world recipe that most people don't appreciate.
Appointing corporate supremacists to the Supreme 0.1% Speech Court that produces Robber Baron verdicts while worker wages rot on the vine leaves a mark on workers.
Castrating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau instead of letting it function is a Republican economic crime against humanity.
After a while, even duped Republican voters will realize that their Trump University Mad Hatter degrees are completely worthless.
989
@Socrates
The moralizing of others' politics gets old quick. Is your own party right about policy, or righteous? Believing in good policy or fair government doesn't make you a good person.
12
@Socrates
Why is it that republicans make it more difficult for registered citizens to excersise their right to vote, and when it’s a close election, republicans sue or try to suppress recounts?
I don’t recall a recount when Bill Clinton won 2x or when Barack Obamawon his 2 terms.
But here we are again after an election, like Bush v Gore with recounts.
69
@Socrates
The Whites-r-Us is actually White-Men-r-Us, and increasingly women are turning away from "Stand By Your Man." Trump is getting some women to reconsider who they are and to act on feelings long suppressed.
74
If the republican party in general, and this President/administration in particular promised a new era of economic ''populism'', then they failed to deliver on said promise.
For the last (2) years, this republican administration pushed through Congress a 1.5 TRILLION dollar tax theft that was put on the nation's credit card. 83% of that tax theft went to the rich and corporations that is permanent, while 17% went to the middle class that will sunset. - in other words disappear.
For the last (2) years this republican administration/President has been instigating (and losing) a global trade war that only installed crushing new taxes/tariffs that has and is wiping out whole sectors. (especially farms) Then this republican administration turned around and tried to use the taxpayers' money as a band aid to stem the destruction by subsidizing some farmers. That has wildly failed as well.
This republican administration/President are trying to pick winners and losers in the economy, but what seems apparent is that they are doing so with insider trading knowledge and some in the administration are shorting stocks while making millions upon millions. We do not know the full extent, because the President has not released his tax returns.
All of this is going on while DOZENS of people around this republican administration are indicted or are found/pleading guilty to a conspiracy to commit fraud on the American electorate.
Populism indeed. Tribalism fueled.
381
@FunkyIrishman
True, but you should also mention that tax cuts when the economy is doing well are strategically wrong.
It was not a totally bad idea to reduce corporate rates, but believing that it would encourage investment and job growth was a big mistake. That soon became apparent and the people who were suffering continue to suffer.
18
@FunkyIrishman
Yep, and now they will blame the DNC House for lack of $ for the 'economic populism.'
14
@Betsy
Quite right you are. I would only change the word of cut to theft ( being that 83% went to the rich that was permanent and 17% to the middle class that will sunset)
We need to reverse this as soon as possible.
18
Douthat's experiment is still running. 2 more years without Pittsburgh Steel reopening, without thousands of infrastructure rebuilding jobs, with continued disastrous results from Trump's Smoot Hawley redux tariff fiasco and we can pretty much conclude that every Republican vote in 2020 is racially motivated. Jesus has been amended out of the Evangelicals' theology, so we can lump those folk in with the Master Race vote. It's fun as long as I can avoid looking at the account statement from my broker.
209
@H Hanover
Look, I can't stand Trump - and neither can Douthat.
.
But if the statement from your broker is too difficult for you to look at after the run up in the markets over the last 9 years - then the fault is yours - not anyone else's including Trump.
3
@HH
Glad you are giving some credit to the run up under Obama which rarely happens!
8
If the republican party in general, and this President/administration in particular promised a new era of economic ''populism'', then they failed to deliver on said promise.
For the last (2) years, this republican administration pushed through Congress a 1.5 TRILLION dollar tax theft that was put on the nation's credit card. 83% of that tax theft went to the rich and corporations that is permanent, while 17% went to the middle class that will sunset. - in other words disappear.
For the last (2) years this republican administration/President has been instigating (and losing) a global trade war that only installed crushing new taxes/tariffs that has and is wiping out whole sectors. (especially farms) Then this republican administration turned around and tried to use the taxpayers' money as a band aid to stem the destruction by subsidizing some farmers. That has wildly failed as well.
This republican administration/President are trying to pick winners and losers in the economy, but what seems apparent is that they are doing so with insider trading knowledge and some in the administration are shorting stocks while making millions upon millions. We do not know the full extent, because the President has not released his tax returns.
All of this is going on while DOZENS of people around this republican administration are indicted or are found/pleading guilty to a conspiracy to commit fraud on the American electorate.
Populism indeed. Tribalism fueled..
18
If the republican party in general, and this President/administration in particular promised a new era of economic ''populism'', then they failed to deliver on said promise.
For the last (2) years, this republican administration pushed through Congress a 1.5 TRILLION dollar tax theft that was put on the nation's credit card. 83% of that tax theft went to the rich and corporations that is permanent, while 17% went to the middle class that will sunset. - in other words disappear.
For the last (2) years this republican administration/President has been instigating (and losing) a global trade war that only installed crushing new taxes/tariffs that has and is wiping out whole sectors. (especially farms) Then this republican administration turned around and tried to use the taxpayers' money as a band aid to stem the destruction by subsidizing some farmers. That has wildly failed as well.
This republican administration/President are trying to pick winners and losers in the economy, but what seems apparent is that they are doing so with insider trading knowledge and some in the administration are shorting stocks while making millions upon millions. We do not know the full extent, because the President has not released his tax returns.
All of this is going on while DOZENS of people around this republican administration are indicted or are found/pleading guilty to a conspiracy to commit fraud on the American electorate.
Populism indeed. Tribalism fueled. .
5
If the republican party in general, and this President/administration in particular promised a new era of economic ''populism'', then they failed to deliver on said promise.
For the last (2) years, this republican administration pushed through Congress a 1.5 TRILLION dollar tax theft that was put on the nation's credit card. 83% of that tax theft went to the rich and corporations that is permanent, while 17% went to the middle class that will sunset. - in other words disappear.
For the last (2) years this republican administration/President has been instigating (and losing) a global trade war that only installed crushing new taxes/tariffs that has and is wiping out whole sectors. (especially farms) Then this republican administration turned around and tried to use the taxpayers' money as a band aid to stem the destruction by subsidizing some farmers. That has wildly failed as well.
This republican administration/President are trying to pick winners and losers in the economy, but what seems apparent is that they are doing so with insider trading knowledge and some in the administration are shorting stocks while making millions upon millions. We do not know the full extent, because the President has not released his tax returns.
All of this is going on while DOZENS of people around this republican administration are indicted or are found/pleading guilty to a conspiracy to commit fraud on the American electorate.
Populism indeed. Tribalism fueled...
4
If the republican party in general, and this President/administration in particular promised a new era of economic ''populism'', then they failed to deliver on said promise.
For the last (2) years, this republican administration pushed through Congress a 1.5 TRILLION dollar tax theft that was put on the nation's credit card. 83% of that tax theft went to the rich and corporations that is permanent, while 17% went to the middle class that will sunset. - in other words disappear.
For the last (2) years this republican administration/President has been instigating (and losing) a global trade war that only installed crushing new taxes/tariffs that has and is wiping out whole sectors. (especially farms) Then this republican administration turned around and tried to use the taxpayers' money as a band aid to stem the destruction by subsidizing some farmers. That has wildly failed as well.
This republican administration/President are trying to pick winners and losers in the economy, but what seems apparent is that they are doing so with insider trading knowledge and some in the administration are shorting stocks while making millions upon millions. We do not know the full extent, because the President has not released his tax returns.
All of this is going on while DOZENS of people around this republican administration are indicted or are found/pleading guilty to a conspiracy to commit fraud on the American electorate.
Populism indeed. Tribalism fueled. ..
3
Ross, you wrote:
"But it proves that white-identity politics isn’t simply destiny, that Democrats can reach wavering white-working class voters instead of writing them off."
Absolutely. Democrats do not need a majority of the white working class to become the dominant national party in 2020 and beyond, but they do need a larger slice than what they received in 2016.
Part of the problem in 2016 was TPP - which President Obama chose to negotiate in a fashion that frankly bred mistrust among labor - and with which Hillary had long been associated (even though she disavowed the treaty upon receiving the nomination, only to have Terry McAuliffe immediately cast doubt on the sincerity of her opposition).
The angst and resentments over a treaty which labor had no hand in negotiating, but corporate interests had extensive input into, might have been enough to push those former Obama voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin into the Trump column - and thus deliver the presidency to Trump.
As I've argued endlessly here at The Times, attention must be paid to the plight and sensitivities of the working and lower-middle class in America (many of whom happen to be extremely educated, like America's adjunct college professors and those fifty-something professionals who were downsized in the Great Recession, never to regain anything close to their previous incomes), regardless of race. Any effort that takes these voters for granted is likely to have unfortunate consequences.
30
@Matthew Carnicelli
Sorry, most adjunct profs are Democrats.
2
Trumpism is more of a cult than a political party. The GOP is history, at least while this man is in office.
While the mid-terms revealed some chinks in the armor of Trumpism, the Democrats at this point have one big question to answer in less than one year:
Is there a democratic candidate capable of defeating Trump in 2020? Surveying the landscape right now, I don’t think that any person is near to having the capacity to beat Trump in 2020.
This is why the celebration of progress gained in 2018 must get serious very soon identifying the characteristics of the ‘right’ candidate to defeat Trump in less than two years.
14
@JT FLORIDA
Sherrod Brown from Ohio has learned to thread the needle. He gets my early vote.
3
When the president was running (oozing?) for office, he openly encouraged skinheads to beat up liberals. He spewed hatred in so many directions that it’s hard to categorize the nuances by which he berated, cursed, groped, lied and insulted his way into the Oval Office.
Who votes for that? How tone deaf does a voter have to be not to hear the hateful melody that squeaked from this defective man? Who could have listened to his incoherent blather and thought that this guy was The One who could make America great when he was so grotesque?
Trying to make this election about economics or race misses the real point, which is that when the populace gets a chance to vote for an idiot, they’ll jump at it. It says that the collective I.Q. of the country is in single digits, and falling.
If we’re a representative democracy, I’m afraid the president is truly representative of what we’ve become. It’s only because most elections run sensible, educated and decent candidates that we often get decent leadership, even if they’re political views can be very different.
The president presented a veritable prism of prurience that shed a sickly light onto everything we value in this country. And whether it was race, the economy, foreign relations, immigration, science, climate change or anything else, he appealed to the lowest common denominator, but he received a large enough fraction of the vote to ruin everything for a long time to come.
718
@gemli - Completely agree with you about the defective one, and that the populace shouldn't have voted for him. But much of the populace trusted GOP'er gatekeepers to prevent such a person from ever getting on their ticket; they neglected how their Citizens United corrupted termite party leaders had gone rogue for: judges, tax cuts, deregulation.
But for these corrupt rogue Complicit termites leading the GOP, His Weaselness 45* would just be babbling on TeeVee somewhere and 'covfefe' -ing in the Twittersphere instead of holding 2-hour secret discussions with Pootie Poot; the Complicit termites are gnawing gnawing gnawing at our foundations, and we're paying about $30,000/month to Mitch McConnell's household to let them do it to us.
129
@gemli This comment is a perfect example of the thinking of a tone-deaf and dare I say hate-filled Democrat. It's as if you didn't even read what Ross wrote. You, like Hillary, view Trump voters as a basket of deplorables, and fail to realize that they voted for Trump while holding their noses because they really thought he might arrest the decline of the USA. The fact that they were wrong in their analysis does not mean that they are racist or evil.
3
@gemli - The execrable essence of Spanky B. Spurs is so shocking, so gob-smacking, that there's a tendency to forget that his (R)egressive supporters have been with us forever. Every (R) president in recent political history - Nixon, Reagan, Bush the Elder and Bush the Lesser - all played the race card, but with at least some semblance of subtlety.
In a perverse way, Bone Spurs has done the more naive among us (me, for example) a favor by exposing the depth and breadth of out-right nastiness that exists in some of our citizens. The reality may be ugly, but at least it's out in the open. How we deal with that and move on is hard to comprehend.
25
It was all pre-saged by the special election win of Doug Jones over Roy Moore, choosing a Dem as U.S. Senator from Alabama wasn't it ?
Too bad it couldn't come more quickly.
Ross leaves out the elephant in the room: rogue GOP'er Senators and their Judicial Juggernaut run amok. Radicals in America are very often from the Right, coming dressed in coat-and-tie; GOP'er Senators have studiously ignored election results favoring Dems since 2016, continuing on their project of leaving a Legacy Judiciary for their donors.
These rogue Senators from the Citizens United/Roberts Court corrupted GOP follow in the foot-steps of their House brethren - a House where almost 20% of their cadre including the exalted Speaker resigned rather than ever face voters again, even in their egregiously gerrymandered districts where they selected their voters so the voters couldn't be choosing their pols.
Said resignations of course occurring only after the House had voted tax cuts for themselves/donors, and voted to rip medical coverage from millions of their constituents. Then on the Senate side, Hatch, Corker, and Flack also quit, rather than face their voters.
These GOP'er rogues are so Radical, they are destroying their own party for their own agendas and their donors', quitting before they can be held to account.
Sen. McConnell and his merry gang are aiming their Animal House Delta Tau Chi float at the country's very foundations, hiding behind the Orange Jabberwock's smokescreen.
139
Great analysis, Mr. Douthat! Yes, it is reassuring that the midterm election results proved “that white-identity politics isn’t simply destiny.” So, let’s see which of our two tribes backs down from identity politics over the next couple years because the one that does will win the 2020 elections – with its unifying message and a 20/20 vision for our troubled nation.
3
An interesting analysis of race and economic factors among the electorate. All of that aside, it puzzles me that the Republicans are so angry. They now control all of the levers of power in government, including the Supreme Court, and they're still angry. For many Trump voters, he has been successful in making them believe that immigration and Democratic so-called "socialism" is a huge threat to them personally and yet, at the end of the day, they're still angry. Maybe underneath it all they feel Trump has not delivered on his promises to make life better for them. All those Rust Belt folks who voted for him and expected to have jobs and more money for their families are probably sorely disappointed. Where people "live" is within their families and communities. Does the tax break really give them the relief they're looking for? Did they end up with the good, "beautiful" jobs they were promised? Are their Healthcare costs any lower? Where's the infrastructure spending to help rebuild their communities? They are still angry and I don't blame them. Then why do they continue to support Trump who, underneath it all, has disappointed them?
77
@Ann
They've been spoon fed a narrative for a long time and it's not easy to reverse course when you have an emotional investment in a political and economic philosophy. Feelings have momentum and the intellect often doesn't have the braking power to slow them down. It takes a hard dose of reality when the prescribed solutions fail to deliver before some people finally change their minds.
19
@Ann
Tribalism.
Just look at how they vote in various liberal ballot initiatives while putting in a Republican senator who neither knows nor cares much about their lives but somehow seems like "one of us" because he shows no concern for the interests of minority voters.
4
@Ann They're angry because they don't want to compromise, they want it all their way. They want us all praying to the same god. They want us all to look like them (white). They want the universities to be full of conservative professors and they want Hollywood to be full of conservative actors. And they won't stop until they get all of it.
2
The racial correlation may be coincidental and not causal.
The fact is that the 500 or so counties that generate 75% of GDP vote democratic; the 2500 counties that generate 25% of GDP vote republican.
Or, as was noted long before the advent of Trump, the greatest predictor of a county voting democratic was the presence of a college in that county. For republican counties, it was the presence of a Cracker Barrel restaurant.
The R's have it right: it's the makers vs. the takers. But their voters happen to be the takers.
755
@ed connor
Excuse me, Mr. Connor, but the farmers are technically the "makers".
8
@Zu367
Agree that "farmers are makers", but overall the reality is that there is a massive transfer of taxpayers monies from urbanized (Democratic) states to rural (Republican) states.
The irony of course is that the rural states, mesmerized by the snake-oil selling GOP and its leader, continue to support GOP tricks designed for the wealthy (tax breaks for the richest, against ACA, living wage, free college etc.) that run against their personal interest.
111
@Zu367 But their soybeans are rotting on the ground due to Donnie's incompetence, and they're forced to rely on welfare ( price supports) just to survive. So why did they continue to vote for him?
115
Our big problem is not race, but people at the bottom of society. Many are minorities, but some are not.
We have too many people with no useful skills leading chaotic lives. Our ideologies prevent us from devising useful strategies that might help this group. The right-wingers will say let them die, and the left-wingers will smother them with 'help' that prevents them from ever becoming self-sufficient.
If we could solve this problem, most of our other problems would disappear. Crime, high medical spending, high local taxes, dysfunctional kids in school, prejudice and stereotyping - all gone!
But until we stop re-fighting the Civil War, nothing will happen. We have to deal with the problems we have now, and not worry so much about history and the past.
22
@Jonathan You say "We have too many people with no useful skills leading chaotic lives." Do you think caring for the sick and elderly is a "useful skill"? Do you think nurturing small children is a "useful skill"? Do you think saving people's lives as an EMT is a "useful skill"? Because if you do, then tell me why the people who perform these vital jobs are paid slave wages. Plenty of the working poor not only have "useful" skills, they have LIFE-SAVING skills. But because they care for human beings rather than machines, they are deemed "useless" and paid accordingly. This leads to erratic living situations, second and third jobs, and "chaotic lives". Pay the people with the MOST important jobs the highest wages (home health aides, day care workers, EMT's, nurses, teachers, social workers, etc) and THAT will solve most of our other problems. Also- tax the heck out of the truly "useless" rich while you're at it.
57
@Penny White - I am not talking about people who actually have jobs. Some of them might not earn much, but just going to work every day makes you a useful and respected member of society. They are not the ones filling up the prisons and homeless camps.
7
@Jonathan
I think you miss the point. It's not enough to have a job; that job has to pay enough to provide you with enough to live. The "helpers" in our society described by Penny White are not meeting that standard.
14